Welcome to Did You Know, the ESCO HVAC podcast,
the show where we explore the cool, the hot,
and the everything in between of the HVACR industry.
Each week, we dig into the innovations, the insights,
and the inspiring stories that power our trade,
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As well as the United Association of Journeymen
and Apprentices of the Plumbing and Pipefitting
Industry of the United States and Canada. Built
on excellence since 1889. Whether you're just
getting started or you've been turning wrenches
for decades like myself, there's always something
new for us to learn. I'm Clifton Beck, and this
is Did You Know? The ESCO HVAC Podcast. Let's
dive in. Hello, everyone. Thank you so much for
joining us once again. We are spending time today
with William Lawhorn, economist from the United
States Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
How are you doing, sir? I'm doing well. A little
chilly, but we're getting through. We're getting
by. Nice to be... working with somebody who's
here bright and early in the morning, just like
me. Yeah, absolutely. I love starting the day.
It's kind of part of the routine of my whole
life. And I think it really does come back from
growing up in a labor environment. My father,
he retired from the... The labor local 204 in
Terre Haute, Indiana. So he was a lifelong laborer
and heavy machinery operator. So he typically
started his days at about four or five o 'clock
in the morning. And I've, you know, being part
of the trades and being a laborer myself, it's,
you know, I'm used to starting my days early.
And, you know, labor is kind of the topic of
today. And even this podcast is proudly sponsored
by the United Association of Journeymen and Apprentices
of the Plumbing and Pipefitting Industry of the
United States and Canada, otherwise known as
the UA. And so we work as an industry to understand
labor and to understand supply and shortages
of labor. And, you know, I can remember in my.
In my time back in the 1990s, my father, when
he was looking for labor for particular projects,
he could go down to the union hall and choose
the laborers that he wanted on a project. And
my cousins, most of my family were laborers.
And I can remember them taking sometimes a couple
of years to get into an apprenticeship program.
and things are different climate is a little
bit different today in labor and there's a lot
of numbers out there there's a lot of quotes
and statistics and a lot of them are i i believe
coming from incorrect resources and so i thought
the best way for us to understand that data is
to go to the heart of that through the bureau
of labor statistics so we're grateful you're
with us well and it's it's important for us to
get our data out to people and um build bridges
with with the community and you know we we've
spoke a few times a little bit before we did
the podcast and i've got over 20 years of researching
construction construction occupations and related
uh installation maintenance repair workers so
you know a touch base and you know going back
even a little bit further you know like you talk
about working with the family there my father
was an electrician um and you know he spent some
time doing some independent contracting and you
know as a 14 year old male who's small sometimes
dad would send you up into the attic you get
the addicts and crawl spaces you do the stuff
but then you're like yeah also like you spent
time working on farms i spent you know and you
know when you're on the farms you're doing all
sorts of little mechanical activities and things
like that helped help set cement forms you know
i did you know like we I did some geosynthetic
construction as well, so capping landfills, lining
the ponds, and also doing the lining and base
stuff on landfills. So you get to see a few different
aspects that are out there in the construction
field. And when it comes to data, One thing to
talk about BLS and Bureau of Labor Statistics,
BLS, sorry, acronym. This is a federal government,
DC, we do lots of acronyms. BLS strives and is
recognized for being the gold standard when it
comes to data. The office I'm in is the Office
of Employment and Unemployment Statistics. And
I'm actually in the Employment Projections Group.
And we, as one of our outputs for our data, we
do projections out 10 years. And one of our other
major outputs is the Occupational Outlook Handbook,
which is a career guidance tool that's been known
and done since the 40s. And it's an important
resource for individuals, counselors, businesses,
when they're kind of looking for some base information
and people trying to make career choices. So
this is important information. It's one of our
top outputs. Although you hear things about the
employment situation on the first Friday of the
month, that's one of the principal federal economic
indicators. But when it comes down to it, the
BLS website, the Occupational Outlook Handbook,
gets the most website visits. month in, month
out. Because people are there for career guidance.
And we're aggregating some of the data. One of
our sister programs, the Occupational Employment
and Wages program, they're right there, but we
publish their data in the handbook. So when you're
looking to find out what the median wages are
for individuals, or you're looking to find out
how many people are employed nationwide, state,
metropolitan, statistical area, MSA, all those
breakouts are there. for the employment projections
we're really only we're looking at the national
level okay we're only we're there but we do work
with the consortium of the states and they have
projections central um which is their the state
stuff because of bls data being an input they
lag a little bit so like we have our 24 to 34
projections available right now the projections
that are on the state sites are the 22 to 32
projections oh really okay yeah because there's
the lag time and let's do that the economists
and they're amazing people at the states that
are doing this work they're stretched, you know,
and it's, it's, it's not anything that's happening.
It's just, that's how it is there. You know,
sometimes you're out in Wyoming, it's a one person
shop and they're doing all the different BLS
activities. So there's only so much you can do.
Exactly. And a federal agency, which may not
have grown with the amount of manpower needed
for the growth of the industry around them. So
I understand that we witness that all the time.
There's an explosion in labor. And so I imagine
all of our state economists, as well as at the
BLS, are working overtime because numbers are
changing. and the other the other aspect is those
that the nature of the work is changing too sure
it you know work doesn't stay the same there's
some core principles that stay the same over
time but it changes you know we have improved
technology you know before i came in to you know
federal government it wasn't that long ago that
there was literally a typist for every economist
or every two economists right well now we don't
have them so like you know your staffing is reduced
but you're still maintaining the output exactly
and i think the same thing happens you know when
you get into trades you know when you're talking
hvac you know technology allows individuals to
do so much more it improves their testing it
improves their ability to schedule things it
improves their billing process so all these little
things play together and they come together and
make us much more efficient And, you know, you
can still charge your rates and stuff like that,
but you're able to do more. You know, instead
of doing two jobs, you're able to do three jobs
or four jobs, depending on the complexity or
what the issue is. And of course, we do the same
thing. We, you know, find ways to become more
efficient, you know, build your economies of
scale to understand things. But we're also adding,
you know, we're not staying the same. And we've
got things like we've added recently fields of
degree. material for for people as well as like
some of the top skills that are available you
know what's what's required or what are they
looking for um you know and that's you know you
go through that and it's it's it's one of those
fun things and you know like a little fun little
fact um the eight for hvac workers looking at
our skills data um detail oriented problem solving
and decision -making, and then adaptability are
the top three skills for HVAC. That's really
cool to think about. What are those character
traits? We talk about them all the time, but
now we actually have analytical data proving
that these are the components. Exactly, and there's
lots of information we gather, and there's scoring,
and we're still learning. We're taking in data,
and we're still learning about it, but we're
creating more things to learn, because let's
face it. We also know that there's no way you
can do your job or our people can do their job
without some interpersonal skills. Exactly. Because
you're going in, you're trying to deal with customers.
You're talking to the customers because you're
diagnosing. You need to pin in on what's the
problem. You go into the mechanic for the car
and you're trying to explain what's going on.
And then they've got to parse. your crazy language
to try to do it and it's you know you so you
try to you have to be descriptive in a way that
helps guide them to what the issue is and you
know some some people are better at it than others
and you know the uh and so you you try to to
right fit people and so those are things that
are going on that's always there you know we
have things uh you know going back one of the
things that you know people giving feedback on
the occupational campbook you know we had And
multiple times we've gone through and we've sent
out surveys to our users to get information.
And this is going back two decades. And we were
still a print, fully print publication at the
time with a little online presence. And they're
going through and they're asking, like, oh, what's
the important thing? And I'm like, wages. Wages
are number one. Oh, no, that doesn't matter.
I'm like, no, no, wages. They go through the
survey. What do they find out? What's the top
thing people look for right away? Wages. We're
always trying to make sure people understand
there's a good opportunity here. Yeah, well,
as a counselor, as an employer, you know, if
I am a counselor and I'm working with my students
trying to find a career and I know what their
character traits are, I can help fine tune into
those potential careers. Or even as an employer,
maybe I have hired someone and I'm finding that
maybe they really don't fit in this particular
role. And then I start looking and I, you know,
I ask some questions and I find out what their
actual personal. character traits are and what
their passions are and realize that, oh, this
person is not great for this role, but I have
a perfect role inside in customer service or
in sales. Absolutely. Some other place and I
can retain that labor and I can keep that employee
that I've invested into. And also they may, the
information they've gained while doing this one
thing may help make them better at this new role.
You bet. Because, you know, it's like in many
cases. When you actually do something, you understand
it much better than if you've just read or watched
it. You know, that physical act of doing. plays
a big role. But anyhow, we should probably get
back to some of the data. No, I could go down
this rabbit hole all day because data and analytics
are the driving force behind ESCO. In all of
our training and certifications, we take pride
in doing the analytics to understand the outcomes.
It helps guide people. It's not about what do
you know or what can you do? It's what things
are you passionate about? What things do you
need some assistance? What kind of roles can
we put you in that fit you well? And when we
look at the industry as a whole those analytics
are crucial and one one analytic that i have
heard the question thousands of times and never
actually known a reference point when we talk
about the the hvacr industry um when we look
at the the size of the industry there are so
many different numbers out there i don't even
personally know myself How large is the HVACR
industry, the workforce? So the workforce is
relatively easy. And of course, you know, when
I was prepping, I looked at the occupational
side less than the industry. But we do have both.
We have the information for both. Oh, cool. Right
now, in 2024, we estimate there's about 425 ,000
technicians. That's a great number to know. since
we're the employment projections we're projecting
to add about 34 500 new technicians between 34
or 24 and 34. okay so and that's you know that's
uh uh that's um that's eight percent eight percent
eight eight point one percent growth yep um which
is much faster than average for all institutions
yeah the total right now is about 3 .1 for all
occupations really yeah okay well and you have
to understand that like so 425 000 is not a small
occupation right exactly so moving a per growing
a little over eight percent it's pretty reasonable
it's it's a it's a good solid sign but there's
a lot of factors driving into why why we're projecting
that growth um now like when you look at similar
occupations. They're going to be in the installation,
maintenance, and repair occupations group. And
those right now are projected to grow about 4
.6%. So they're a little above average, but slower
than HVAC. But there's a lot of occupations that
are in there, and there's some growing faster.
So we have in our matrix, so we have all the
occupations are in one place, and then all the
industries they're employed in. But we also have
like an industry matrix where you can look at
the individual industry. Oh, and then that can
tell you all the breakdown patient. Yeah. In
in that. So now I'm like, like, OK, let's let's
let's do some things. Look at both angles here.
Sure. Right. And, you know. it's one of those
things that they're going through in this bls
.gov slash emp is our main in projections website
and so what i'm doing is i'm going through and
i'm pulling and i'm going to the ep data area
of that into the ep data table section and then
we have a whole bunch of tables and i'm bringing
up and this is all public information oh yeah
this is all public um you know we we provide
that information we have you get you can when
you click on the different tables you find you
can get them as htms or you can bring them down
as an xlsx file so do a little more data manipulation
um okay and i want very important for our educators
a majority of our audience about 60 of our audience
are hvacr educators across the country and across
the world you know we're now at about 117 countries
that listen to this show we have a lot of educators
that are trying to understand how to communicate
with their administration and this is the data
that you can utilize especially when we're talking
with school counselors Why would we want to choose
an HVAC program? Here's why. And here's the data
to prove it. So I encourage everyone to dive
into that data. Okay. So one of the tables that's
useful, there's two tables that are really, really
kind of cool. There's table 1 .8, which is industry
occupation matrix data by occupation. So that
one, you can look up the occupation, find all
the industries. that employ this this occupation
and then there's table 1 .9 which is industry
occupation data by industry so you can go through
and you can look to find you know you know a
given uh a given uh industry so like in this
case um it's especially trade contractors and
the the one that is going to be the big one here
is it's two three eight 220 is the NAICS code
for it. And it's plumbing, heating, and air conditioning
contractors. So as you can imagine, you're going
to have plumbers in there. You're going to have
HVAC people in there. So there's a lot of things,
but they do work together. They're all contractors.
You bet. And they've all been there. Mechanical
contractors. So then what happens is, and this
is very specific, so this is only... This is
going to be only the HVAC workers or heating,
air conditioning, refrigeration mechanics. It's
only going to be those employed, not the self
-employed ones, only those employed in that one.
And then so we're going, I'm scrolling down here
to, it's the standard occupational classification
code for HVAC is 49 -9021. and we'll find that
um there are 296 300 mechanics mechanics in that
field in that in that specific industry yeah
hvac is projected to grow 10 whoa 10 .2 actually
really yeah you can dive in deep on this stuff
and we're um you know one of the things that
has always been a pride of bls And it across
programs is when people contact us. It's the
economists and the line workers who are responding
to most of the most of the things. Now, if we
get a. Inquiry from Congress or, you know, the.
wall street journal or something, we may, it
may run up the ladder for a little more review
and stuff like that. Or it may come, the response
may come from the press office. Yeah. Cause that's
the official things. But like, you know, we're
in general, you know, if, if, if one of your,
if one of your schools contacts us, they're gonna
be talking to, to staff right here on the ground.
So you get that real dark. And like people really
respect the fact that BLS is open to that, you
know, conversation. Yeah. Yeah. That is amazing
because when we look at our schools, we have
a lot of program advisors that are going to be
on the show. We're going to have a variety of
levels of management that are looking at how
to prepare for the future of their program. We
have a lot of administrators that are contacting
HVAC Excellence asking, well, how do I prepare
my program not just for the equipment but for
the growth? What is the anticipated growth of
my program? Where do I find this information?
This is where you find it. the information so
i'm seeing right now one of the things we really
should talk about a little bit more is there's
projections central okay um You can find links
because that's the state consortium because they're
the ones who do projections at the state level
and the MSA area, the metropolitan statistical
areas. So like your schools may want to focus
more on like an MSA or the state because of where
they're at. It's localized. So that's one of
the things. And what you're doing there is you're
really the information, they're aggregating information
that are in the state. Offices of Labor Market
Information or the State Department of Labor.
Because, you know, there's all sorts of different
names that they can have for the groups that
are doing these statistics. But that's one of
those things where I think it's really good to
know that. Because then we can talk about also
the... We're obviously jumping around a little
bit. A little bit. Some things we had planned
on a little bit. Right. But I think this is a
natural flow. Yeah. So this kind of takes us
to... of the sister program the occupational
employment and wage statistics program oews um
and they do they have all the wage but they also
do counts of the actual employment wage and salary
so that takes off to self -employed really so
it's it's only wage and salary that they do but
they have all this information so like you can
find out that um heating air conditioning refrigeration
mechanics installers the annual median wage is
highest in the state of alaska 83 660 dollars
a year the media i've heard that before ben there's
the proof for it the the median remember is the
exact midpoint yeah so the median is typically
going to be a little lower than the mean the
mean is the average so if you take all the wages
all of them together and then combine it and
divide it you get the mean the median it really
just what's the exact midpoint you know when
you when you start talking averages you know
somebody who's been a mechanic for 30 years they're
going to make a whole heck of a lot more money
than somebody who's just started injury yeah
so you've got that you've got that that's that
floating thing so it was one of those things
i was like oh i guess it makes some sense because
like you know there's some pretty alaska has
some pretty pretty unique needs for for managing
temperature and air quality so you know and then
you'll very skilled labor and then when you start
looking down the list you've got like district
columbia massachusetts connecticut minnesota
these you know in the wages you know they go
down the median goes down a little but you know
they're still doing quite well and those are
typically some higher wage areas so it makes
sense um but then you know like the other aspect
of things that you want to look at is okay if
you're in a specific area you know, a smaller
statistical area or what city were you making
the most? So as we talked about, the highest
median is in Alaska. So it's not really a surprise
that the top two annual median wages are two
locations in Alaska. Exactly. Anchorage, Alaska
is number one at $96 ,610 a year for median.
Fairbanks. Fairbanks College. I'm not sure exactly
where college is, but Fairbanks, I've heard of
$84 ,230. Now, then you get into like San Jose,
Longview, Santa Cruz, Boston. Right. Those things.
But they also have higher cost of living areas.
Yeah. But it goes through. So those are kind
of some interesting little tidbits of, you know,
wages, because we know wages matter for people.
But then. Where are the opportunities? That's
one of the things we've talked about those things.
And this is kind of breaking things out. So we're
going to talk about on average per year. Okay.
It's not, this is not the 10 year total. This
is on the given a year. Now it's obviously not
going to be exactly this number, but over the
course of the decade, it's going to kind of average
out to get there. You know, we're. We have what's
called occupational separations and openings
data, which is table 1 .10 in our side. And we
have people who are annually exiting the occupation
for HVAC is 12 ,900 is what we're saying. So
almost 13 ,000 people are exiting that occupation
each year. Annually. Wow. So, you know, and then
there's people who are transferring to other
occupations. Sure. That's another like 24 ,000.
So, you know, the total occupational separations
are really almost 37 ,000 a year. I've heard
numbers very similar to that because even the
UA is saying that they're looking for about 30
,000 employees and they're one of the largest
providers of, you know, especially the commercial
technicians in our industry. That's a lot of
technicians that are leaving every year that
we have to supply. And then when you go through,
so like, then when you kind of, you also factor
in the growth, we're saying that, and this is
not exact, about 40 ,000. uh technicians need
to be hired per year um so then you you add that
up and it's like that's a pretty over the course
of 10 years that's a lot of a lot of people cycling
in and out and we know that like you you guys
know as well as i do that like there's people
who are come in training and they start off and
they find out it's not for them and so you you
it's it's one like many things those first three
four years are critical yeah Once they make it
past, what, five years, six years, they're likely
to be there for a career, you know, a long, really
long term, a real long term point. So, you know,
that's just kind of one of those little data
points to keep thinking is that, yeah, so there's
training that needs to happen. And of course,
we know the training programs are always changing
and adding things because the systems are updating.
You know, we're not. No, that's the thing that
we struggle with. What was heating and cooling
50 years ago is not the same today. So what the
most is staying up to date with the changes in
technologies, regulations, refrigerants. There's
there's a lot to reeducate on. One of the things
that you had mentioned in that is that, you know,
that annual and you're projecting out many years.
You know, we we always wonder here in the industry.
you know what's the retirement looking like for
the next five years the next 10 years because
we do feel like there's going to be a generational
gap do we see any of that data starting to present
itself well oddly enough we have data for that
i bet you do that's what's curious it's it's
obviously not perfect sure because you know it's
we're doing this and this information is coming
mainly from the current population survey yep
um so they're linked with census and they're
the ones who are involved with the unemployment
rate but they also do characteristics of the
employed and characteristics of the unemployed
and so they actually do have um they have a household
data annual average table 11b okay that's important
because it's detailed um it has It's the current
population survey has data on age group of employed
persons by detailed occupation and age. And this
is the 24 stuff. And they also have things that
also relate to ethnicity, gender, and things
like that. But what you find is they also have
a median age listed. Median age in 2024 for HVAC
technicians, 38 .5. For all occupations, 16,
16 years and up, it's 42 .2. Really? So actually
maybe a little better than, than some other thing.
Now, of course, you know, that's median. That's
the exact midpoint. They're, they're, they're
dropping in there, but that gives you, gives
you, gives you a little something. And what I'm
kind of looking at here is I have any, anybody
can do that. And they go to, they can go to this
table 11B. And they can find the line items and
they can pair different occupations and you can
kind of look. So like one of the things you find
that you would be surprised about is that like
in the 16 to 19 year grouping, 2 .6 % are HVAC
technicians. Early on students. So it's one of
those things to probably become a technician
that young. It's hard. So whereas, you know,
overall, it's about 3 .5%. So, you know, it takes
a little while to ramp up and get into it. Not
really a surprise there. And then I think the
area where maybe there might be a little where
it kind of really stands out that it's very different
from overall occupations is in the 25 to 34 -year
-old group. There's about 30 % of HVAC technicians
fall into that. So a 30 -year workforce is right
there. Wow. But that probably shows that you've
been doing a good job of training, bringing people
in. That's what I'm seeing. Absolutely. We are
seeing that growth. In comparison, for all occupations,
22 % are 25 to 34. Oh, my goodness. And that's
one of those areas where it's like, oh, that's
kind of a... That's big. That's very interesting.
But I think it shows how well your groups are
doing. To prepare for it. And getting forward.
And also that could be part of the thing that's
driving that median age down a little bit. Yeah.
Is that you've done that. But then, and what
doesn't surprise, won't surprise I think anybody
here, is that when you get to the older age cohorts,
that 55 to 64, 65 and older, there's many fewer,
the percent, the share is lower. And I mean,
but we're talking, you know, it's. you know when
you're 65 years and older seven percent total
for all occupations it's about seven percent
it's like three point six percent for hvac that's
an interesting one i would have expected that
to be higher so that's really intriguing but
part of it is you know of the total percentage
of workforce you know 100 yeah you know about
three and a half percent a little over three
and a half percent are the oldest and then it's
like you know 55 to 64 it's really 11 % for HVAC
and 16%. So it's a little different. The proportions
are off a little, but still when you look at
on an average, because I would have anticipated
that we had a larger number in that range, those
pre -retirement range, that's the number that
we always are concerned with. But in reality,
We've got a pretty significant amount of young
technicians coming into the industry that do
have that opportunity to fill that void. But
that shows how much effort you've put in to prepare.
Yeah. Yeah. It shows what I feel in our industry.
Cause we have a lot of, we have a lot of individuals
in our industry that have been very concerned
about the growth, feeling like that we are not
growing fast enough, but we're actually starting
to see that the efforts that we have put into
it are actually making significant difference.
It's very encouraging, shows so much opportunity
and the data that is there to prove that. You
remember, of course, that we're talking shares,
shares of, you know, of the, you know, what.
you know, 400 ,000 or the, you know, our, our
total, you know, that, you know, X percent of
them is that's there. So it's, you know, we're
not talking like levels of employment here. So
those actual levels can be kind of significant
too. One of the reasons that we do long -term
projections at BLS is because it typically smooths
out those interrupters. So like, you know, we're
not, we're not projecting a recession in 10 years,
or we're not projecting those things we'd have
to deal with things so like you know if we have
you know you go back to great recession and like
the kind of slowdown that happened for most of
construction you know after that you had a lot
fat you had pretty fast great fast changes sure
because you're you're starting from the nature
you're dropping fast you grew fast you're you're
down there so you've got it even just getting
back to where you were there's a lot going on
there um so you look at that and like obviously
construction lagged now hvac didn't follow that
same path Because construction is about new build
in most cases. You bet. HVAC is new build, but
it's also a lot of maintenance. There's a lot
of replacement activity. In some respects, you're
like roofers that way. Yeah, exactly. You know,
there's a lifespan. Yeah. And your HVAC system
is only going to last so long. Yeah. And sometimes
it's longer. Perpetual replacement. Yeah. So
there's going on. And, you know, there's been
lots of. Bonus programs and credits have been
given for improving the efficiency of systems.
Oh, yeah. So, you know, that's work. And, you
know, and people look at it. And, you know, I
think the prevalence of, like, maintenance contracts
have improved. Especially as people recognize
the value and comfort of a well -balanced home.
Well -tuned system. You bet. Many of these roles
we're talking about do not require four -year
degrees. They may require apprenticeships. They
may require certifications, associate degrees.
Do we know, overall, what percentage of jobs
across the U .S. require a four -year degree
in comparison to these non -traditional four
-year degree jobs? We do track that as well.
we have i'm just uh okay so looking through and
this is the education tables from the employment
projections are the the five series so 5 .2 table
is the one that it gives the breakout from no
formal educational credential to um doctoral
professional so what i think is going to surprise
people is really when you start looking at typical
educational requirements the requirements are
much lower than most people would expect. So
if you look at bachelor's degrees, that's about
a quarter of jobs are bachelor's, require a bachelor's
degree. If you add in doctoral professional degrees,
which is like your doctors and lawyers, master's
degrees, that's another 5%. 30 % of jobs require
a bachelor's or higher. 70 % do not? That is
correct. Whoa. Right. Some of the things you
think are higher, when you look at associate's
degree, post -secondary, non -degree awards,
some college, no degree, that's only another
10%. no kidding and then high school diplomas
35 .7 percent yeah no formal education requirement
23 .7 that is intriguing those doctoral professional
degrees where it's 2 .7 percent of the distribution
126 000 a little over 126 000 a year for them
if you're looking at no formal educational credential
required thirty five thousand six hundred sixty
dollars that is a big change so like there's
there's things and like your bachelor's degree
people are about 92 92 000 a year and of course
that you know this is median and we understand
that like you've got people who are bachelor's
degree people who are making two three hundred
thousand dollars a year and you have you know
some of the some of the making 40 ,000 educators
making 40 with a bachelor's. Yes. Yeah. Yeah.
I didn't want to call out a particular occupation.
I will. You don't have to. Um, but yeah, so like
those, those things are going on and you know,
the other area where there seems to be some,
some differences, like those bachelor's degree,
um, they expected, you know, when you kind of
sum those with the typical requirement, bachelor's
degree. I expect to have about 5 .6 % growth
over the coming, that projection period. Master's
degree, 10 .2%. Professional degree is 5 .6%.
Now you get done, associate's degree are like
4 .5%. Post -secondary non -degree award, 5 .1%.
But then you look at like high school diplomas
and then no requirements, 1 .7, 1 .6. so much
slower yeah but once again this is a large population
yeah yeah you know and you're 35 35 of your people
are high school diplomas so like there's a there's
a huge wage range of occupations so like individual
occupations obviously within those are going
to be doing much better and as we talked about
earlier you know there's a lot of growth for
hvac as compared to even other similar um you
know maintenance occupations installation maintenance
repair occupations so like don't sometimes don't
get thrown off right by uh by that because you
know the when you're when you're talking hvac
there may not be a school you know you might
they might put you in that post -secondary non
-degree award but we're going to say that it's
a high school diploma. But we recognize that
there's some sort of apprenticeship long term
on the job training, which is the same, you know,
in some respects, it's moving up the ladder.
You know, like you're doing, it's, you know,
multiple, multi -discipline cross training in
your, in HVAC. You're getting low voltage electricity,
you're getting high voltage electricity, you're
getting gas and safety things. You're, so like,
although, you know, some hydraulic stuff, so
like all these different things that are part
of that. Part of that scope are things you're
being trained on, which is moves your value up
and the expected earnings helps it up because
you're doing more and you're learning more and
you have lots of transferable transferability
on the information you're learning. A lot of
opportunity, a lot of potential for growth within
the HVAC industry. And that's really what we
wanted to show and help people understand. But
I love data. I love analytics. We could do this
for hours and still have a fun time doing it.
But I know our audience is limited to a certain
amount of time. So let's make sure, though, that
we walk away understanding where can we get more
resources? Where does all this data come from?
So their audience can go dive deeper for themselves.
So I think a great starting point is of course
the occupational outlook handbook. You can, that's
90. Let's see. That's like BLS. So I've got so
many pages open and it's BLS, BLS .gov is the,
is the main part of it. And then I just want
to make sure I'm giving the correct thing. So,
and I was correct. It's BLS .gov backslash OOH
backslash. So the Occupational Local Handbook,
OOH, that's a great starting point. If you change
that OOH to an EMP, that's first three letters
of employment, that's going to take you to the
Employment Projections Group. Nice. And that's
where you've got access to all our data tables
and things like that. And obviously, if it gets
to be in -depth stuff and they have other questions,
you know, there's a email form that you can fill
out and we will get back to you. There are numbers
and you talk to one of my coworkers or depend
on how technical the question is, you'll be talking
to me. But yeah, so like BLS. or slash ooh .gov
slash ooh is the main is the main place to to
go because that gives you access to all the occupational
information we have in that the some of the starting
information because that has things like uh when
you when you when you go in you each one each
profile that we have on there has several different
tabs. There's a summary tab, which kind of goes
through the typical pay and outlook information.
And then there's a what they do, which talks
a little bit about some of the things that each
occupation does. There's a work environment that
talks a little bit about where people work, injury
illnesses, work schedules, things like that.
How to become one, which talks about the education
and training, certifications, licensure, some
important qualities. There's a pay tab, and then
there's a job outlook tab that kind of talks
about those what's going on with the, you know,
total employment, the change, as well as some
of the, some of the factors that are there that
are driving growth and change. And of course,
in this case, it's absolutely growth through
our occupations where we talk about declines,
but not this one. Awesome. All right. Well, thank
you, William Lawhorn and the Bureau of Labor
Statistics. We really appreciate you joining
us and diving deeper into the state of HVACR.
Yeah. So, you know, if you, and down the road,
if you have any more questions, we maybe we'll,
we'll, we can talk again about some more specific
topics. We were really general and broad on this
one. And I think, I think, I think we overwhelmed
ourselves with our, with our scope on this one.
That's all right. We got a good overview and
I'm like, I'm with you. So let us know as you're
listening to this podcast, what components were
you most intrigued with? And maybe we can dive
deeper on another episode. And keep an eye out,
tail end of 2026, we'll have new projections
for the 25 to 35 projection period. Projections
come out annually from the U .S. Bureau of Labor
Statistics and things change, although factors
continue on. Thank you so much. I really appreciate
the opportunity to speak with you today. Yeah,
it's a lot of fun. Thank you so much. And we
will see you all in the next episode. Did You
Know, the ESCO HVAC podcast. Bye, everybody.