WEBVTT 00:00:01.639 --> 00:00:05.000 Welcome to Did You Know, the ESCO HVAC podcast, 00:00:05.480 --> 00:00:07.759 the show where we explore the cool, the hot, 00:00:07.759 --> 00:00:11.099 and the everything in between of the HVACR industry. 00:00:11.519 --> 00:00:14.720 Each week, we dig into the innovations, the insights, 00:00:14.839 --> 00:00:17.660 and the inspiring stories that power our trade, 00:00:17.820 --> 00:00:20.300 from the classroom to the job site and beyond. 00:00:20.539 --> 00:00:22.640 This episode is brought to you by this week's 00:00:22.640 --> 00:00:25.300 amazing sponsors. Daikin Comfort Technology, 00:00:25.739 --> 00:00:29.879 perfecting the air since 1924. ServiceLogic, 00:00:29.920 --> 00:00:34.439 people first. Always. Hudson Technologies. One 00:00:34.439 --> 00:00:38.859 pound reclaimed is one pound not made. iConnect 00:00:38.859 --> 00:00:42.840 Training. Supporting HVAC and refrigeration instructors. 00:00:43.320 --> 00:00:46.359 As well as the United Association of Journeymen 00:00:46.359 --> 00:00:48.479 and Apprentices of the Plumbing and Pipefitting 00:00:48.479 --> 00:00:51.140 Industry of the United States and Canada. Built 00:00:51.140 --> 00:00:54.780 on excellence since 1889. Whether you're just 00:00:54.780 --> 00:00:56.759 getting started or you've been turning wrenches 00:00:56.759 --> 00:00:59.520 for decades like myself, there's always something 00:00:59.520 --> 00:01:02.679 new for us to learn. I'm Clifton Beck, and this 00:01:02.679 --> 00:01:07.519 is Did You Know? The ESCO HVAC Podcast. Let's 00:01:07.519 --> 00:01:12.480 dive in. Hello, everyone. Thank you so much for 00:01:12.480 --> 00:01:15.280 joining us once again. We are spending time today 00:01:15.280 --> 00:01:18.159 with William Lawhorn, economist from the United 00:01:18.159 --> 00:01:21.099 States Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 00:01:21.159 --> 00:01:23.819 How are you doing, sir? I'm doing well. A little 00:01:23.819 --> 00:01:25.900 chilly, but we're getting through. We're getting 00:01:25.900 --> 00:01:29.540 by. Nice to be... working with somebody who's 00:01:29.540 --> 00:01:31.340 here bright and early in the morning, just like 00:01:31.340 --> 00:01:34.659 me. Yeah, absolutely. I love starting the day. 00:01:34.799 --> 00:01:36.920 It's kind of part of the routine of my whole 00:01:36.920 --> 00:01:38.939 life. And I think it really does come back from 00:01:38.939 --> 00:01:44.620 growing up in a labor environment. My father, 00:01:44.719 --> 00:01:49.689 he retired from the... The labor local 204 in 00:01:49.689 --> 00:01:52.709 Terre Haute, Indiana. So he was a lifelong laborer 00:01:52.709 --> 00:01:55.170 and heavy machinery operator. So he typically 00:01:55.170 --> 00:01:57.430 started his days at about four or five o 'clock 00:01:57.430 --> 00:02:00.239 in the morning. And I've, you know, being part 00:02:00.239 --> 00:02:03.019 of the trades and being a laborer myself, it's, 00:02:03.180 --> 00:02:05.459 you know, I'm used to starting my days early. 00:02:06.000 --> 00:02:08.680 And, you know, labor is kind of the topic of 00:02:08.680 --> 00:02:13.060 today. And even this podcast is proudly sponsored 00:02:13.060 --> 00:02:16.580 by the United Association of Journeymen and Apprentices 00:02:16.580 --> 00:02:19.000 of the Plumbing and Pipefitting Industry of the 00:02:19.000 --> 00:02:20.639 United States and Canada, otherwise known as 00:02:20.639 --> 00:02:26.389 the UA. And so we work as an industry to understand 00:02:26.389 --> 00:02:30.250 labor and to understand supply and shortages 00:02:30.250 --> 00:02:33.330 of labor. And, you know, I can remember in my. 00:02:34.250 --> 00:02:38.189 In my time back in the 1990s, my father, when 00:02:38.189 --> 00:02:40.930 he was looking for labor for particular projects, 00:02:41.050 --> 00:02:43.990 he could go down to the union hall and choose 00:02:43.990 --> 00:02:47.409 the laborers that he wanted on a project. And 00:02:47.409 --> 00:02:50.389 my cousins, most of my family were laborers. 00:02:50.389 --> 00:02:53.629 And I can remember them taking sometimes a couple 00:02:53.629 --> 00:02:55.949 of years to get into an apprenticeship program. 00:02:56.840 --> 00:02:59.520 and things are different climate is a little 00:02:59.520 --> 00:03:02.400 bit different today in labor and there's a lot 00:03:02.400 --> 00:03:05.080 of numbers out there there's a lot of quotes 00:03:05.080 --> 00:03:10.240 and statistics and a lot of them are i i believe 00:03:10.240 --> 00:03:12.639 coming from incorrect resources and so i thought 00:03:12.639 --> 00:03:16.139 the best way for us to understand that data is 00:03:16.139 --> 00:03:18.000 to go to the heart of that through the bureau 00:03:18.000 --> 00:03:20.039 of labor statistics so we're grateful you're 00:03:20.039 --> 00:03:23.219 with us well and it's it's important for us to 00:03:23.219 --> 00:03:27.039 get our data out to people and um build bridges 00:03:27.039 --> 00:03:30.400 with with the community and you know we we've 00:03:30.400 --> 00:03:32.460 spoke a few times a little bit before we did 00:03:32.460 --> 00:03:36.180 the podcast and i've got over 20 years of researching 00:03:36.180 --> 00:03:38.639 construction construction occupations and related 00:03:38.639 --> 00:03:42.360 uh installation maintenance repair workers so 00:03:42.360 --> 00:03:44.539 you know a touch base and you know going back 00:03:44.539 --> 00:03:47.560 even a little bit further you know like you talk 00:03:47.560 --> 00:03:49.699 about working with the family there my father 00:03:49.699 --> 00:03:53.039 was an electrician um and you know he spent some 00:03:53.039 --> 00:03:56.020 time doing some independent contracting and you 00:03:56.020 --> 00:03:59.379 know as a 14 year old male who's small sometimes 00:03:59.379 --> 00:04:01.560 dad would send you up into the attic you get 00:04:01.560 --> 00:04:07.240 the addicts and crawl spaces you do the stuff 00:04:07.240 --> 00:04:09.240 but then you're like yeah also like you spent 00:04:09.240 --> 00:04:11.379 time working on farms i spent you know and you 00:04:11.379 --> 00:04:12.620 know when you're on the farms you're doing all 00:04:12.620 --> 00:04:15.580 sorts of little mechanical activities and things 00:04:15.580 --> 00:04:19.459 like that helped help set cement forms you know 00:04:19.459 --> 00:04:22.279 i did you know like we I did some geosynthetic 00:04:22.279 --> 00:04:26.639 construction as well, so capping landfills, lining 00:04:26.639 --> 00:04:29.720 the ponds, and also doing the lining and base 00:04:29.720 --> 00:04:33.560 stuff on landfills. So you get to see a few different 00:04:33.560 --> 00:04:36.560 aspects that are out there in the construction 00:04:36.560 --> 00:04:42.439 field. And when it comes to data, One thing to 00:04:42.439 --> 00:04:45.439 talk about BLS and Bureau of Labor Statistics, 00:04:45.680 --> 00:04:48.639 BLS, sorry, acronym. This is a federal government, 00:04:48.699 --> 00:04:54.879 DC, we do lots of acronyms. BLS strives and is 00:04:54.879 --> 00:04:57.839 recognized for being the gold standard when it 00:04:57.839 --> 00:05:01.399 comes to data. The office I'm in is the Office 00:05:01.399 --> 00:05:04.360 of Employment and Unemployment Statistics. And 00:05:04.360 --> 00:05:06.579 I'm actually in the Employment Projections Group. 00:05:06.779 --> 00:05:09.620 And we, as one of our outputs for our data, we 00:05:09.620 --> 00:05:12.209 do projections out 10 years. And one of our other 00:05:12.209 --> 00:05:14.709 major outputs is the Occupational Outlook Handbook, 00:05:14.850 --> 00:05:17.949 which is a career guidance tool that's been known 00:05:17.949 --> 00:05:21.730 and done since the 40s. And it's an important 00:05:21.730 --> 00:05:26.509 resource for individuals, counselors, businesses, 00:05:26.689 --> 00:05:29.750 when they're kind of looking for some base information 00:05:29.750 --> 00:05:33.129 and people trying to make career choices. So 00:05:33.129 --> 00:05:35.810 this is important information. It's one of our 00:05:35.810 --> 00:05:40.120 top outputs. Although you hear things about the 00:05:40.120 --> 00:05:42.279 employment situation on the first Friday of the 00:05:42.279 --> 00:05:47.180 month, that's one of the principal federal economic 00:05:47.180 --> 00:05:51.079 indicators. But when it comes down to it, the 00:05:51.079 --> 00:05:54.680 BLS website, the Occupational Outlook Handbook, 00:05:54.800 --> 00:05:58.379 gets the most website visits. month in, month 00:05:58.379 --> 00:06:00.939 out. Because people are there for career guidance. 00:06:01.060 --> 00:06:03.240 And we're aggregating some of the data. One of 00:06:03.240 --> 00:06:06.699 our sister programs, the Occupational Employment 00:06:06.699 --> 00:06:11.040 and Wages program, they're right there, but we 00:06:11.040 --> 00:06:13.100 publish their data in the handbook. So when you're 00:06:13.100 --> 00:06:14.860 looking to find out what the median wages are 00:06:14.860 --> 00:06:17.160 for individuals, or you're looking to find out 00:06:17.160 --> 00:06:20.879 how many people are employed nationwide, state, 00:06:21.079 --> 00:06:24.980 metropolitan, statistical area, MSA, all those 00:06:24.980 --> 00:06:27.500 breakouts are there. for the employment projections 00:06:27.500 --> 00:06:30.259 we're really only we're looking at the national 00:06:30.259 --> 00:06:33.639 level okay we're only we're there but we do work 00:06:33.639 --> 00:06:36.180 with the consortium of the states and they have 00:06:36.180 --> 00:06:40.019 projections central um which is their the state 00:06:40.019 --> 00:06:44.000 stuff because of bls data being an input they 00:06:44.000 --> 00:06:46.660 lag a little bit so like we have our 24 to 34 00:06:46.660 --> 00:06:49.259 projections available right now the projections 00:06:49.259 --> 00:06:51.740 that are on the state sites are the 22 to 32 00:06:51.740 --> 00:06:54.939 projections oh really okay yeah because there's 00:06:54.939 --> 00:06:58.519 the lag time and let's do that the economists 00:06:58.519 --> 00:07:00.680 and they're amazing people at the states that 00:07:00.680 --> 00:07:03.779 are doing this work they're stretched, you know, 00:07:03.779 --> 00:07:05.819 and it's, it's, it's not anything that's happening. 00:07:05.860 --> 00:07:07.459 It's just, that's how it is there. You know, 00:07:07.459 --> 00:07:10.740 sometimes you're out in Wyoming, it's a one person 00:07:10.740 --> 00:07:13.959 shop and they're doing all the different BLS 00:07:13.959 --> 00:07:17.189 activities. So there's only so much you can do. 00:07:17.670 --> 00:07:20.769 Exactly. And a federal agency, which may not 00:07:20.769 --> 00:07:24.350 have grown with the amount of manpower needed 00:07:24.350 --> 00:07:27.949 for the growth of the industry around them. So 00:07:27.949 --> 00:07:29.829 I understand that we witness that all the time. 00:07:29.910 --> 00:07:34.110 There's an explosion in labor. And so I imagine 00:07:34.110 --> 00:07:38.449 all of our state economists, as well as at the 00:07:38.449 --> 00:07:41.689 BLS, are working overtime because numbers are 00:07:41.689 --> 00:07:45.019 changing. and the other the other aspect is those 00:07:45.019 --> 00:07:47.560 that the nature of the work is changing too sure 00:07:47.560 --> 00:07:50.660 it you know work doesn't stay the same there's 00:07:50.660 --> 00:07:53.139 some core principles that stay the same over 00:07:53.139 --> 00:07:57.600 time but it changes you know we have improved 00:07:57.600 --> 00:08:02.319 technology you know before i came in to you know 00:08:02.319 --> 00:08:05.399 federal government it wasn't that long ago that 00:08:05.399 --> 00:08:08.360 there was literally a typist for every economist 00:08:08.360 --> 00:08:12.139 or every two economists right well now we don't 00:08:12.139 --> 00:08:14.420 have them so like you know your staffing is reduced 00:08:14.420 --> 00:08:16.600 but you're still maintaining the output exactly 00:08:16.600 --> 00:08:18.899 and i think the same thing happens you know when 00:08:18.899 --> 00:08:20.540 you get into trades you know when you're talking 00:08:20.540 --> 00:08:25.459 hvac you know technology allows individuals to 00:08:25.459 --> 00:08:28.920 do so much more it improves their testing it 00:08:28.920 --> 00:08:30.980 improves their ability to schedule things it 00:08:30.980 --> 00:08:33.299 improves their billing process so all these little 00:08:33.299 --> 00:08:35.340 things play together and they come together and 00:08:35.340 --> 00:08:38.210 make us much more efficient And, you know, you 00:08:38.210 --> 00:08:40.730 can still charge your rates and stuff like that, 00:08:40.809 --> 00:08:42.710 but you're able to do more. You know, instead 00:08:42.710 --> 00:08:44.389 of doing two jobs, you're able to do three jobs 00:08:44.389 --> 00:08:46.470 or four jobs, depending on the complexity or 00:08:46.470 --> 00:08:50.429 what the issue is. And of course, we do the same 00:08:50.429 --> 00:08:52.490 thing. We, you know, find ways to become more 00:08:52.490 --> 00:08:54.169 efficient, you know, build your economies of 00:08:54.169 --> 00:08:56.049 scale to understand things. But we're also adding, 00:08:56.250 --> 00:09:00.370 you know, we're not staying the same. And we've 00:09:00.370 --> 00:09:02.970 got things like we've added recently fields of 00:09:02.970 --> 00:09:06.600 degree. material for for people as well as like 00:09:06.600 --> 00:09:09.679 some of the top skills that are available you 00:09:09.679 --> 00:09:11.840 know what's what's required or what are they 00:09:11.840 --> 00:09:14.879 looking for um you know and that's you know you 00:09:14.879 --> 00:09:17.080 go through that and it's it's it's one of those 00:09:17.080 --> 00:09:19.200 fun things and you know like a little fun little 00:09:19.200 --> 00:09:25.039 fact um the eight for hvac workers looking at 00:09:25.039 --> 00:09:31.559 our skills data um detail oriented problem solving 00:09:32.799 --> 00:09:35.879 and decision -making, and then adaptability are 00:09:35.879 --> 00:09:40.019 the top three skills for HVAC. That's really 00:09:40.019 --> 00:09:42.879 cool to think about. What are those character 00:09:42.879 --> 00:09:44.580 traits? We talk about them all the time, but 00:09:44.580 --> 00:09:46.960 now we actually have analytical data proving 00:09:46.960 --> 00:09:50.340 that these are the components. Exactly, and there's 00:09:50.340 --> 00:09:53.240 lots of information we gather, and there's scoring, 00:09:53.379 --> 00:09:56.500 and we're still learning. We're taking in data, 00:09:56.559 --> 00:09:59.200 and we're still learning about it, but we're 00:09:59.200 --> 00:10:01.080 creating more things to learn, because let's 00:10:01.080 --> 00:10:05.269 face it. We also know that there's no way you 00:10:05.269 --> 00:10:07.149 can do your job or our people can do their job 00:10:07.149 --> 00:10:12.490 without some interpersonal skills. Exactly. Because 00:10:12.490 --> 00:10:14.710 you're going in, you're trying to deal with customers. 00:10:15.289 --> 00:10:16.830 You're talking to the customers because you're 00:10:16.830 --> 00:10:20.190 diagnosing. You need to pin in on what's the 00:10:20.190 --> 00:10:26.070 problem. You go into the mechanic for the car 00:10:26.070 --> 00:10:28.169 and you're trying to explain what's going on. 00:10:28.970 --> 00:10:31.940 And then they've got to parse. your crazy language 00:10:31.940 --> 00:10:35.480 to try to do it and it's you know you so you 00:10:35.480 --> 00:10:38.340 try to you have to be descriptive in a way that 00:10:38.340 --> 00:10:41.139 helps guide them to what the issue is and you 00:10:41.139 --> 00:10:42.740 know some some people are better at it than others 00:10:42.740 --> 00:10:47.480 and you know the uh and so you you try to to 00:10:47.480 --> 00:10:50.000 right fit people and so those are things that 00:10:50.000 --> 00:10:51.220 are going on that's always there you know we 00:10:51.220 --> 00:10:54.480 have things uh you know going back one of the 00:10:54.480 --> 00:10:56.879 things that you know people giving feedback on 00:10:56.879 --> 00:11:00.320 the occupational campbook you know we had And 00:11:00.320 --> 00:11:02.000 multiple times we've gone through and we've sent 00:11:02.000 --> 00:11:04.620 out surveys to our users to get information. 00:11:05.379 --> 00:11:09.240 And this is going back two decades. And we were 00:11:09.240 --> 00:11:11.440 still a print, fully print publication at the 00:11:11.440 --> 00:11:14.360 time with a little online presence. And they're 00:11:14.360 --> 00:11:16.480 going through and they're asking, like, oh, what's 00:11:16.480 --> 00:11:18.740 the important thing? And I'm like, wages. Wages 00:11:18.740 --> 00:11:20.000 are number one. Oh, no, that doesn't matter. 00:11:20.080 --> 00:11:23.100 I'm like, no, no, wages. They go through the 00:11:23.100 --> 00:11:24.899 survey. What do they find out? What's the top 00:11:24.899 --> 00:11:29.009 thing people look for right away? Wages. We're 00:11:29.009 --> 00:11:30.330 always trying to make sure people understand 00:11:30.330 --> 00:11:34.019 there's a good opportunity here. Yeah, well, 00:11:34.120 --> 00:11:36.779 as a counselor, as an employer, you know, if 00:11:36.779 --> 00:11:39.679 I am a counselor and I'm working with my students 00:11:39.679 --> 00:11:42.379 trying to find a career and I know what their 00:11:42.379 --> 00:11:45.179 character traits are, I can help fine tune into 00:11:45.179 --> 00:11:47.799 those potential careers. Or even as an employer, 00:11:48.000 --> 00:11:51.259 maybe I have hired someone and I'm finding that 00:11:51.259 --> 00:11:53.480 maybe they really don't fit in this particular 00:11:53.480 --> 00:11:56.460 role. And then I start looking and I, you know, 00:11:56.460 --> 00:11:58.179 I ask some questions and I find out what their 00:11:58.179 --> 00:12:01.919 actual personal. character traits are and what 00:12:01.919 --> 00:12:04.480 their passions are and realize that, oh, this 00:12:04.480 --> 00:12:07.419 person is not great for this role, but I have 00:12:07.419 --> 00:12:10.639 a perfect role inside in customer service or 00:12:10.639 --> 00:12:13.320 in sales. Absolutely. Some other place and I 00:12:13.320 --> 00:12:16.879 can retain that labor and I can keep that employee 00:12:16.879 --> 00:12:20.259 that I've invested into. And also they may, the 00:12:20.259 --> 00:12:22.059 information they've gained while doing this one 00:12:22.059 --> 00:12:25.460 thing may help make them better at this new role. 00:12:25.740 --> 00:12:28.559 You bet. Because, you know, it's like in many 00:12:28.559 --> 00:12:31.899 cases. When you actually do something, you understand 00:12:31.899 --> 00:12:35.559 it much better than if you've just read or watched 00:12:35.559 --> 00:12:40.379 it. You know, that physical act of doing. plays 00:12:40.379 --> 00:12:43.039 a big role. But anyhow, we should probably get 00:12:43.039 --> 00:12:45.139 back to some of the data. No, I could go down 00:12:45.139 --> 00:12:48.259 this rabbit hole all day because data and analytics 00:12:48.259 --> 00:12:52.200 are the driving force behind ESCO. In all of 00:12:52.200 --> 00:12:54.539 our training and certifications, we take pride 00:12:54.539 --> 00:12:57.460 in doing the analytics to understand the outcomes. 00:12:57.759 --> 00:13:00.379 It helps guide people. It's not about what do 00:13:00.379 --> 00:13:03.240 you know or what can you do? It's what things 00:13:03.240 --> 00:13:04.720 are you passionate about? What things do you 00:13:04.720 --> 00:13:06.399 need some assistance? What kind of roles can 00:13:06.399 --> 00:13:09.200 we put you in that fit you well? And when we 00:13:09.200 --> 00:13:11.299 look at the industry as a whole those analytics 00:13:11.299 --> 00:13:15.220 are crucial and one one analytic that i have 00:13:15.220 --> 00:13:18.659 heard the question thousands of times and never 00:13:18.659 --> 00:13:23.820 actually known a reference point when we talk 00:13:23.820 --> 00:13:30.480 about the the hvacr industry um when we look 00:13:30.480 --> 00:13:34.580 at the the size of the industry there are so 00:13:34.580 --> 00:13:37.139 many different numbers out there i don't even 00:13:37.139 --> 00:13:41.659 personally know myself How large is the HVACR 00:13:41.659 --> 00:13:45.139 industry, the workforce? So the workforce is 00:13:45.139 --> 00:13:48.299 relatively easy. And of course, you know, when 00:13:48.299 --> 00:13:50.940 I was prepping, I looked at the occupational 00:13:50.940 --> 00:13:52.960 side less than the industry. But we do have both. 00:13:53.000 --> 00:13:55.659 We have the information for both. Oh, cool. Right 00:13:55.659 --> 00:14:00.919 now, in 2024, we estimate there's about 425 ,000 00:14:00.919 --> 00:14:06.470 technicians. That's a great number to know. since 00:14:06.470 --> 00:14:08.870 we're the employment projections we're projecting 00:14:08.870 --> 00:14:17.629 to add about 34 500 new technicians between 34 00:14:17.629 --> 00:14:21.889 or 24 and 34. okay so and that's you know that's 00:14:21.889 --> 00:14:26.649 uh uh that's um that's eight percent eight percent 00:14:26.649 --> 00:14:29.110 eight eight point one percent growth yep um which 00:14:29.110 --> 00:14:30.789 is much faster than average for all institutions 00:14:30.789 --> 00:14:36.000 yeah the total right now is about 3 .1 for all 00:14:36.000 --> 00:14:40.120 occupations really yeah okay well and you have 00:14:40.120 --> 00:14:44.019 to understand that like so 425 000 is not a small 00:14:44.019 --> 00:14:47.059 occupation right exactly so moving a per growing 00:14:47.059 --> 00:14:48.899 a little over eight percent it's pretty reasonable 00:14:48.899 --> 00:14:51.200 it's it's a it's a good solid sign but there's 00:14:51.200 --> 00:14:53.700 a lot of factors driving into why why we're projecting 00:14:53.700 --> 00:14:59.980 that growth um now like when you look at similar 00:14:59.980 --> 00:15:01.820 occupations. They're going to be in the installation, 00:15:02.039 --> 00:15:05.879 maintenance, and repair occupations group. And 00:15:05.879 --> 00:15:09.000 those right now are projected to grow about 4 00:15:09.000 --> 00:15:15.659 .6%. So they're a little above average, but slower 00:15:15.659 --> 00:15:20.200 than HVAC. But there's a lot of occupations that 00:15:20.200 --> 00:15:21.700 are in there, and there's some growing faster. 00:15:21.879 --> 00:15:25.580 So we have in our matrix, so we have all the 00:15:25.580 --> 00:15:27.620 occupations are in one place, and then all the 00:15:27.620 --> 00:15:29.899 industries they're employed in. But we also have 00:15:29.899 --> 00:15:31.559 like an industry matrix where you can look at 00:15:31.559 --> 00:15:35.159 the individual industry. Oh, and then that can 00:15:35.159 --> 00:15:38.200 tell you all the breakdown patient. Yeah. In 00:15:38.200 --> 00:15:42.179 in that. So now I'm like, like, OK, let's let's 00:15:42.179 --> 00:15:44.259 let's do some things. Look at both angles here. 00:15:44.299 --> 00:15:46.450 Sure. Right. And, you know. it's one of those 00:15:46.450 --> 00:15:48.830 things that they're going through in this bls 00:15:48.830 --> 00:15:53.350 .gov slash emp is our main in projections website 00:15:53.350 --> 00:15:56.029 and so what i'm doing is i'm going through and 00:15:56.029 --> 00:15:58.250 i'm pulling and i'm going to the ep data area 00:15:58.250 --> 00:16:03.009 of that into the ep data table section and then 00:16:03.009 --> 00:16:07.590 we have a whole bunch of tables and i'm bringing 00:16:07.590 --> 00:16:10.289 up and this is all public information oh yeah 00:16:10.289 --> 00:16:13.690 this is all public um you know we we provide 00:16:13.690 --> 00:16:16.149 that information we have you get you can when 00:16:16.149 --> 00:16:18.009 you click on the different tables you find you 00:16:18.009 --> 00:16:20.549 can get them as htms or you can bring them down 00:16:20.549 --> 00:16:25.029 as an xlsx file so do a little more data manipulation 00:16:25.850 --> 00:16:29.490 um okay and i want very important for our educators 00:16:29.490 --> 00:16:32.629 a majority of our audience about 60 of our audience 00:16:32.629 --> 00:16:36.470 are hvacr educators across the country and across 00:16:36.470 --> 00:16:39.909 the world you know we're now at about 117 countries 00:16:39.909 --> 00:16:42.950 that listen to this show we have a lot of educators 00:16:42.950 --> 00:16:46.309 that are trying to understand how to communicate 00:16:46.309 --> 00:16:48.690 with their administration and this is the data 00:16:48.690 --> 00:16:51.529 that you can utilize especially when we're talking 00:16:51.529 --> 00:16:54.539 with school counselors Why would we want to choose 00:16:54.539 --> 00:16:57.980 an HVAC program? Here's why. And here's the data 00:16:57.980 --> 00:17:00.960 to prove it. So I encourage everyone to dive 00:17:00.960 --> 00:17:07.500 into that data. Okay. So one of the tables that's 00:17:07.500 --> 00:17:10.420 useful, there's two tables that are really, really 00:17:10.420 --> 00:17:16.400 kind of cool. There's table 1 .8, which is industry 00:17:16.400 --> 00:17:18.740 occupation matrix data by occupation. So that 00:17:18.740 --> 00:17:20.400 one, you can look up the occupation, find all 00:17:20.400 --> 00:17:23.869 the industries. that employ this this occupation 00:17:23.869 --> 00:17:27.190 and then there's table 1 .9 which is industry 00:17:27.190 --> 00:17:29.890 occupation data by industry so you can go through 00:17:29.890 --> 00:17:34.410 and you can look to find you know you know a 00:17:34.410 --> 00:17:39.730 given uh a given uh industry so like in this 00:17:39.730 --> 00:17:44.730 case um it's especially trade contractors and 00:17:44.730 --> 00:17:48.910 the the one that is going to be the big one here 00:17:48.910 --> 00:17:55.529 is it's two three eight 220 is the NAICS code 00:17:55.529 --> 00:17:58.470 for it. And it's plumbing, heating, and air conditioning 00:17:58.470 --> 00:18:03.049 contractors. So as you can imagine, you're going 00:18:03.049 --> 00:18:04.630 to have plumbers in there. You're going to have 00:18:04.630 --> 00:18:09.569 HVAC people in there. So there's a lot of things, 00:18:09.730 --> 00:18:12.269 but they do work together. They're all contractors. 00:18:12.410 --> 00:18:14.289 You bet. And they've all been there. Mechanical 00:18:14.289 --> 00:18:17.970 contractors. So then what happens is, and this 00:18:17.970 --> 00:18:21.180 is very specific, so this is only... This is 00:18:21.180 --> 00:18:25.000 going to be only the HVAC workers or heating, 00:18:25.019 --> 00:18:27.980 air conditioning, refrigeration mechanics. It's 00:18:27.980 --> 00:18:30.400 only going to be those employed, not the self 00:18:30.400 --> 00:18:33.579 -employed ones, only those employed in that one. 00:18:34.599 --> 00:18:36.880 And then so we're going, I'm scrolling down here 00:18:36.880 --> 00:18:41.859 to, it's the standard occupational classification 00:18:41.859 --> 00:18:50.089 code for HVAC is 49 -9021. and we'll find that 00:18:50.089 --> 00:18:57.190 um there are 296 300 mechanics mechanics in that 00:18:57.190 --> 00:18:59.769 field in that in that specific industry yeah 00:18:59.769 --> 00:19:05.349 hvac is projected to grow 10 whoa 10 .2 actually 00:19:05.349 --> 00:19:08.829 really yeah you can dive in deep on this stuff 00:19:08.829 --> 00:19:11.769 and we're um you know one of the things that 00:19:11.769 --> 00:19:15.799 has always been a pride of bls And it across 00:19:15.799 --> 00:19:20.099 programs is when people contact us. It's the 00:19:20.099 --> 00:19:23.480 economists and the line workers who are responding 00:19:23.480 --> 00:19:27.119 to most of the most of the things. Now, if we 00:19:27.119 --> 00:19:34.940 get a. Inquiry from Congress or, you know, the. 00:19:36.400 --> 00:19:38.400 wall street journal or something, we may, it 00:19:38.400 --> 00:19:40.579 may run up the ladder for a little more review 00:19:40.579 --> 00:19:43.019 and stuff like that. Or it may come, the response 00:19:43.019 --> 00:19:45.680 may come from the press office. Yeah. Cause that's 00:19:45.680 --> 00:19:47.359 the official things. But like, you know, we're 00:19:47.359 --> 00:19:49.839 in general, you know, if, if, if one of your, 00:19:49.880 --> 00:19:52.500 if one of your schools contacts us, they're gonna 00:19:52.500 --> 00:19:55.920 be talking to, to staff right here on the ground. 00:19:56.460 --> 00:20:00.019 So you get that real dark. And like people really 00:20:00.019 --> 00:20:03.059 respect the fact that BLS is open to that, you 00:20:03.059 --> 00:20:06.390 know, conversation. Yeah. Yeah. That is amazing 00:20:06.390 --> 00:20:08.829 because when we look at our schools, we have 00:20:08.829 --> 00:20:12.109 a lot of program advisors that are going to be 00:20:12.109 --> 00:20:16.150 on the show. We're going to have a variety of 00:20:16.150 --> 00:20:18.470 levels of management that are looking at how 00:20:18.470 --> 00:20:21.170 to prepare for the future of their program. We 00:20:21.170 --> 00:20:23.369 have a lot of administrators that are contacting 00:20:23.369 --> 00:20:26.950 HVAC Excellence asking, well, how do I prepare 00:20:26.950 --> 00:20:29.869 my program not just for the equipment but for 00:20:29.869 --> 00:20:32.329 the growth? What is the anticipated growth of 00:20:32.329 --> 00:20:33.769 my program? Where do I find this information? 00:20:33.950 --> 00:20:36.750 This is where you find it. the information so 00:20:36.750 --> 00:20:39.329 i'm seeing right now one of the things we really 00:20:39.329 --> 00:20:41.410 should talk about a little bit more is there's 00:20:41.410 --> 00:20:45.400 projections central okay um You can find links 00:20:45.400 --> 00:20:47.480 because that's the state consortium because they're 00:20:47.480 --> 00:20:49.460 the ones who do projections at the state level 00:20:49.460 --> 00:20:52.900 and the MSA area, the metropolitan statistical 00:20:52.900 --> 00:20:55.980 areas. So like your schools may want to focus 00:20:55.980 --> 00:20:59.640 more on like an MSA or the state because of where 00:20:59.640 --> 00:21:01.960 they're at. It's localized. So that's one of 00:21:01.960 --> 00:21:03.940 the things. And what you're doing there is you're 00:21:03.940 --> 00:21:05.960 really the information, they're aggregating information 00:21:05.960 --> 00:21:09.519 that are in the state. Offices of Labor Market 00:21:09.519 --> 00:21:12.160 Information or the State Department of Labor. 00:21:12.400 --> 00:21:13.819 Because, you know, there's all sorts of different 00:21:13.819 --> 00:21:15.720 names that they can have for the groups that 00:21:15.720 --> 00:21:19.380 are doing these statistics. But that's one of 00:21:19.380 --> 00:21:21.220 those things where I think it's really good to 00:21:21.220 --> 00:21:23.859 know that. Because then we can talk about also 00:21:23.859 --> 00:21:30.180 the... We're obviously jumping around a little 00:21:30.180 --> 00:21:31.660 bit. A little bit. Some things we had planned 00:21:31.660 --> 00:21:33.240 on a little bit. Right. But I think this is a 00:21:33.240 --> 00:21:36.359 natural flow. Yeah. So this kind of takes us 00:21:36.359 --> 00:21:38.690 to... of the sister program the occupational 00:21:38.690 --> 00:21:42.490 employment and wage statistics program oews um 00:21:42.490 --> 00:21:46.690 and they do they have all the wage but they also 00:21:46.690 --> 00:21:52.710 do counts of the actual employment wage and salary 00:21:52.710 --> 00:21:55.109 so that takes off to self -employed really so 00:21:55.109 --> 00:21:57.390 it's it's only wage and salary that they do but 00:21:57.390 --> 00:21:59.569 they have all this information so like you can 00:21:59.569 --> 00:22:03.890 find out that um heating air conditioning refrigeration 00:22:03.890 --> 00:22:07.029 mechanics installers the annual median wage is 00:22:07.029 --> 00:22:13.029 highest in the state of alaska 83 660 dollars 00:22:13.029 --> 00:22:16.390 a year the media i've heard that before ben there's 00:22:16.390 --> 00:22:20.329 the proof for it the the median remember is the 00:22:20.329 --> 00:22:23.390 exact midpoint yeah so the median is typically 00:22:23.390 --> 00:22:26.269 going to be a little lower than the mean the 00:22:26.269 --> 00:22:28.529 mean is the average so if you take all the wages 00:22:28.529 --> 00:22:30.609 all of them together and then combine it and 00:22:30.609 --> 00:22:33.910 divide it you get the mean the median it really 00:22:33.910 --> 00:22:36.450 just what's the exact midpoint you know when 00:22:36.450 --> 00:22:38.470 you when you start talking averages you know 00:22:38.470 --> 00:22:42.250 somebody who's been a mechanic for 30 years they're 00:22:42.250 --> 00:22:43.509 going to make a whole heck of a lot more money 00:22:43.509 --> 00:22:45.089 than somebody who's just started injury yeah 00:22:45.089 --> 00:22:47.609 so you've got that you've got that that's that 00:22:47.609 --> 00:22:50.670 floating thing so it was one of those things 00:22:50.670 --> 00:22:53.150 i was like oh i guess it makes some sense because 00:22:53.150 --> 00:22:56.190 like you know there's some pretty alaska has 00:22:56.190 --> 00:23:01.819 some pretty pretty unique needs for for managing 00:23:01.819 --> 00:23:05.220 temperature and air quality so you know and then 00:23:05.220 --> 00:23:07.519 you'll very skilled labor and then when you start 00:23:07.519 --> 00:23:09.559 looking down the list you've got like district 00:23:09.559 --> 00:23:11.640 columbia massachusetts connecticut minnesota 00:23:11.640 --> 00:23:14.119 these you know in the wages you know they go 00:23:14.119 --> 00:23:16.200 down the median goes down a little but you know 00:23:16.200 --> 00:23:19.000 they're still doing quite well and those are 00:23:19.000 --> 00:23:21.500 typically some higher wage areas so it makes 00:23:21.500 --> 00:23:24.480 sense um but then you know like the other aspect 00:23:24.480 --> 00:23:26.920 of things that you want to look at is okay if 00:23:26.920 --> 00:23:30.859 you're in a specific area you know, a smaller 00:23:30.859 --> 00:23:35.019 statistical area or what city were you making 00:23:35.019 --> 00:23:37.799 the most? So as we talked about, the highest 00:23:37.799 --> 00:23:40.720 median is in Alaska. So it's not really a surprise 00:23:40.720 --> 00:23:46.119 that the top two annual median wages are two 00:23:46.119 --> 00:23:49.279 locations in Alaska. Exactly. Anchorage, Alaska 00:23:49.279 --> 00:23:53.839 is number one at $96 ,610 a year for median. 00:23:54.559 --> 00:23:58.710 Fairbanks. Fairbanks College. I'm not sure exactly 00:23:58.710 --> 00:24:00.569 where college is, but Fairbanks, I've heard of 00:24:00.569 --> 00:24:06.470 $84 ,230. Now, then you get into like San Jose, 00:24:06.789 --> 00:24:10.309 Longview, Santa Cruz, Boston. Right. Those things. 00:24:10.369 --> 00:24:14.089 But they also have higher cost of living areas. 00:24:14.250 --> 00:24:18.150 Yeah. But it goes through. So those are kind 00:24:18.150 --> 00:24:22.349 of some interesting little tidbits of, you know, 00:24:22.349 --> 00:24:24.210 wages, because we know wages matter for people. 00:24:24.250 --> 00:24:27.779 But then. Where are the opportunities? That's 00:24:27.779 --> 00:24:29.019 one of the things we've talked about those things. 00:24:29.400 --> 00:24:31.700 And this is kind of breaking things out. So we're 00:24:31.700 --> 00:24:34.619 going to talk about on average per year. Okay. 00:24:34.940 --> 00:24:36.980 It's not, this is not the 10 year total. This 00:24:36.980 --> 00:24:40.619 is on the given a year. Now it's obviously not 00:24:40.619 --> 00:24:42.779 going to be exactly this number, but over the 00:24:42.779 --> 00:24:45.339 course of the decade, it's going to kind of average 00:24:45.339 --> 00:24:49.480 out to get there. You know, we're. We have what's 00:24:49.480 --> 00:24:51.740 called occupational separations and openings 00:24:51.740 --> 00:24:57.259 data, which is table 1 .10 in our side. And we 00:24:57.259 --> 00:25:03.299 have people who are annually exiting the occupation 00:25:03.299 --> 00:25:09.200 for HVAC is 12 ,900 is what we're saying. So 00:25:09.200 --> 00:25:13.660 almost 13 ,000 people are exiting that occupation 00:25:13.660 --> 00:25:18.599 each year. Annually. Wow. So, you know, and then 00:25:18.599 --> 00:25:20.099 there's people who are transferring to other 00:25:20.099 --> 00:25:23.440 occupations. Sure. That's another like 24 ,000. 00:25:23.599 --> 00:25:26.819 So, you know, the total occupational separations 00:25:26.819 --> 00:25:33.049 are really almost 37 ,000 a year. I've heard 00:25:33.049 --> 00:25:36.390 numbers very similar to that because even the 00:25:36.390 --> 00:25:39.289 UA is saying that they're looking for about 30 00:25:39.289 --> 00:25:41.329 ,000 employees and they're one of the largest 00:25:41.329 --> 00:25:43.849 providers of, you know, especially the commercial 00:25:43.849 --> 00:25:46.650 technicians in our industry. That's a lot of 00:25:46.650 --> 00:25:48.170 technicians that are leaving every year that 00:25:48.170 --> 00:25:51.029 we have to supply. And then when you go through, 00:25:51.109 --> 00:25:53.849 so like, then when you kind of, you also factor 00:25:53.849 --> 00:25:56.430 in the growth, we're saying that, and this is 00:25:56.430 --> 00:26:00.480 not exact, about 40 ,000. uh technicians need 00:26:00.480 --> 00:26:05.119 to be hired per year um so then you you add that 00:26:05.119 --> 00:26:07.220 up and it's like that's a pretty over the course 00:26:07.220 --> 00:26:09.440 of 10 years that's a lot of a lot of people cycling 00:26:09.440 --> 00:26:13.660 in and out and we know that like you you guys 00:26:13.660 --> 00:26:15.700 know as well as i do that like there's people 00:26:15.700 --> 00:26:18.799 who are come in training and they start off and 00:26:18.799 --> 00:26:21.900 they find out it's not for them and so you you 00:26:21.900 --> 00:26:24.579 it's it's one like many things those first three 00:26:24.579 --> 00:26:27.019 four years are critical yeah Once they make it 00:26:27.019 --> 00:26:29.200 past, what, five years, six years, they're likely 00:26:29.200 --> 00:26:31.559 to be there for a career, you know, a long, really 00:26:31.559 --> 00:26:35.680 long term, a real long term point. So, you know, 00:26:35.680 --> 00:26:38.319 that's just kind of one of those little data 00:26:38.319 --> 00:26:41.039 points to keep thinking is that, yeah, so there's 00:26:41.039 --> 00:26:43.619 training that needs to happen. And of course, 00:26:43.619 --> 00:26:45.579 we know the training programs are always changing 00:26:45.579 --> 00:26:48.480 and adding things because the systems are updating. 00:26:49.480 --> 00:26:51.059 You know, we're not. No, that's the thing that 00:26:51.059 --> 00:26:54.730 we struggle with. What was heating and cooling 00:26:54.730 --> 00:26:59.049 50 years ago is not the same today. So what the 00:26:59.049 --> 00:27:02.390 most is staying up to date with the changes in 00:27:02.390 --> 00:27:06.250 technologies, regulations, refrigerants. There's 00:27:06.250 --> 00:27:09.789 there's a lot to reeducate on. One of the things 00:27:09.789 --> 00:27:12.069 that you had mentioned in that is that, you know, 00:27:12.069 --> 00:27:15.809 that annual and you're projecting out many years. 00:27:15.910 --> 00:27:18.250 You know, we we always wonder here in the industry. 00:27:19.150 --> 00:27:21.430 you know what's the retirement looking like for 00:27:21.430 --> 00:27:24.250 the next five years the next 10 years because 00:27:24.250 --> 00:27:26.309 we do feel like there's going to be a generational 00:27:26.309 --> 00:27:30.549 gap do we see any of that data starting to present 00:27:30.549 --> 00:27:36.990 itself well oddly enough we have data for that 00:27:36.990 --> 00:27:42.069 i bet you do that's what's curious it's it's 00:27:42.069 --> 00:27:45.630 obviously not perfect sure because you know it's 00:27:45.630 --> 00:27:47.970 we're doing this and this information is coming 00:27:47.970 --> 00:27:50.789 mainly from the current population survey yep 00:27:50.789 --> 00:27:53.390 um so they're linked with census and they're 00:27:53.390 --> 00:27:54.890 the ones who are involved with the unemployment 00:27:54.890 --> 00:27:57.049 rate but they also do characteristics of the 00:27:57.049 --> 00:27:58.869 employed and characteristics of the unemployed 00:27:58.869 --> 00:28:04.950 and so they actually do have um they have a household 00:28:04.950 --> 00:28:09.630 data annual average table 11b okay that's important 00:28:09.630 --> 00:28:15.319 because it's detailed um it has It's the current 00:28:15.319 --> 00:28:19.380 population survey has data on age group of employed 00:28:19.380 --> 00:28:23.039 persons by detailed occupation and age. And this 00:28:23.039 --> 00:28:26.400 is the 24 stuff. And they also have things that 00:28:26.400 --> 00:28:30.140 also relate to ethnicity, gender, and things 00:28:30.140 --> 00:28:33.500 like that. But what you find is they also have 00:28:33.500 --> 00:28:39.180 a median age listed. Median age in 2024 for HVAC 00:28:39.180 --> 00:28:48.029 technicians, 38 .5. For all occupations, 16, 00:28:48.109 --> 00:28:53.049 16 years and up, it's 42 .2. Really? So actually 00:28:53.049 --> 00:28:55.930 maybe a little better than, than some other thing. 00:28:55.930 --> 00:28:57.230 Now, of course, you know, that's median. That's 00:28:57.230 --> 00:29:00.430 the exact midpoint. They're, they're, they're 00:29:00.430 --> 00:29:02.730 dropping in there, but that gives you, gives 00:29:02.730 --> 00:29:05.849 you, gives you a little something. And what I'm 00:29:05.849 --> 00:29:08.750 kind of looking at here is I have any, anybody 00:29:08.750 --> 00:29:10.190 can do that. And they go to, they can go to this 00:29:10.190 --> 00:29:14.279 table 11B. And they can find the line items and 00:29:14.279 --> 00:29:16.700 they can pair different occupations and you can 00:29:16.700 --> 00:29:18.500 kind of look. So like one of the things you find 00:29:18.500 --> 00:29:21.839 that you would be surprised about is that like 00:29:21.839 --> 00:29:29.640 in the 16 to 19 year grouping, 2 .6 % are HVAC 00:29:29.640 --> 00:29:33.440 technicians. Early on students. So it's one of 00:29:33.440 --> 00:29:34.720 those things to probably become a technician 00:29:34.720 --> 00:29:38.079 that young. It's hard. So whereas, you know, 00:29:38.079 --> 00:29:44.099 overall, it's about 3 .5%. So, you know, it takes 00:29:44.099 --> 00:29:46.039 a little while to ramp up and get into it. Not 00:29:46.039 --> 00:29:50.759 really a surprise there. And then I think the 00:29:50.759 --> 00:29:54.099 area where maybe there might be a little where 00:29:54.099 --> 00:29:56.380 it kind of really stands out that it's very different 00:29:56.380 --> 00:30:02.000 from overall occupations is in the 25 to 34 -year 00:30:02.000 --> 00:30:07.660 -old group. There's about 30 % of HVAC technicians 00:30:07.660 --> 00:30:10.319 fall into that. So a 30 -year workforce is right 00:30:10.319 --> 00:30:14.420 there. Wow. But that probably shows that you've 00:30:14.420 --> 00:30:17.220 been doing a good job of training, bringing people 00:30:17.220 --> 00:30:19.519 in. That's what I'm seeing. Absolutely. We are 00:30:19.519 --> 00:30:24.359 seeing that growth. In comparison, for all occupations, 00:30:24.480 --> 00:30:31.000 22 % are 25 to 34. Oh, my goodness. And that's 00:30:31.000 --> 00:30:32.460 one of those areas where it's like, oh, that's 00:30:32.460 --> 00:30:35.180 kind of a... That's big. That's very interesting. 00:30:35.359 --> 00:30:38.640 But I think it shows how well your groups are 00:30:38.640 --> 00:30:42.940 doing. To prepare for it. And getting forward. 00:30:43.039 --> 00:30:44.660 And also that could be part of the thing that's 00:30:44.660 --> 00:30:46.779 driving that median age down a little bit. Yeah. 00:30:46.839 --> 00:30:49.039 Is that you've done that. But then, and what 00:30:49.039 --> 00:30:51.059 doesn't surprise, won't surprise I think anybody 00:30:51.059 --> 00:30:53.920 here, is that when you get to the older age cohorts, 00:30:53.920 --> 00:30:59.480 that 55 to 64, 65 and older, there's many fewer, 00:30:59.660 --> 00:31:04.799 the percent, the share is lower. And I mean, 00:31:04.799 --> 00:31:07.450 but we're talking, you know, it's. you know when 00:31:07.450 --> 00:31:10.089 you're 65 years and older seven percent total 00:31:10.089 --> 00:31:13.049 for all occupations it's about seven percent 00:31:13.049 --> 00:31:16.910 it's like three point six percent for hvac that's 00:31:16.910 --> 00:31:19.690 an interesting one i would have expected that 00:31:19.690 --> 00:31:23.410 to be higher so that's really intriguing but 00:31:23.410 --> 00:31:25.170 part of it is you know of the total percentage 00:31:25.170 --> 00:31:28.529 of workforce you know 100 yeah you know about 00:31:28.529 --> 00:31:30.150 three and a half percent a little over three 00:31:30.150 --> 00:31:32.390 and a half percent are the oldest and then it's 00:31:32.390 --> 00:31:38.319 like you know 55 to 64 it's really 11 % for HVAC 00:31:38.319 --> 00:31:41.640 and 16%. So it's a little different. The proportions 00:31:41.640 --> 00:31:43.700 are off a little, but still when you look at 00:31:43.700 --> 00:31:45.740 on an average, because I would have anticipated 00:31:45.740 --> 00:31:50.859 that we had a larger number in that range, those 00:31:50.859 --> 00:31:53.599 pre -retirement range, that's the number that 00:31:53.599 --> 00:31:55.759 we always are concerned with. But in reality, 00:31:57.150 --> 00:32:00.470 We've got a pretty significant amount of young 00:32:00.470 --> 00:32:04.289 technicians coming into the industry that do 00:32:04.289 --> 00:32:07.990 have that opportunity to fill that void. But 00:32:07.990 --> 00:32:13.250 that shows how much effort you've put in to prepare. 00:32:13.869 --> 00:32:16.430 Yeah. Yeah. It shows what I feel in our industry. 00:32:16.529 --> 00:32:19.150 Cause we have a lot of, we have a lot of individuals 00:32:19.150 --> 00:32:20.950 in our industry that have been very concerned 00:32:20.950 --> 00:32:22.829 about the growth, feeling like that we are not 00:32:22.829 --> 00:32:25.089 growing fast enough, but we're actually starting 00:32:25.089 --> 00:32:27.029 to see that the efforts that we have put into 00:32:27.029 --> 00:32:29.150 it are actually making significant difference. 00:32:29.230 --> 00:32:31.730 It's very encouraging, shows so much opportunity 00:32:31.730 --> 00:32:35.049 and the data that is there to prove that. You 00:32:35.049 --> 00:32:36.710 remember, of course, that we're talking shares, 00:32:36.910 --> 00:32:39.529 shares of, you know, of the, you know, what. 00:32:40.029 --> 00:32:42.970 you know, 400 ,000 or the, you know, our, our 00:32:42.970 --> 00:32:45.549 total, you know, that, you know, X percent of 00:32:45.549 --> 00:32:47.289 them is that's there. So it's, you know, we're 00:32:47.289 --> 00:32:49.309 not talking like levels of employment here. So 00:32:49.309 --> 00:32:51.890 those actual levels can be kind of significant 00:32:51.890 --> 00:32:54.650 too. One of the reasons that we do long -term 00:32:54.650 --> 00:32:57.609 projections at BLS is because it typically smooths 00:32:57.609 --> 00:33:01.089 out those interrupters. So like, you know, we're 00:33:01.089 --> 00:33:06.450 not, we're not projecting a recession in 10 years, 00:33:06.509 --> 00:33:09.309 or we're not projecting those things we'd have 00:33:09.309 --> 00:33:11.029 to deal with things so like you know if we have 00:33:11.029 --> 00:33:13.710 you know you go back to great recession and like 00:33:13.710 --> 00:33:16.150 the kind of slowdown that happened for most of 00:33:16.150 --> 00:33:19.390 construction you know after that you had a lot 00:33:19.390 --> 00:33:22.069 fat you had pretty fast great fast changes sure 00:33:22.069 --> 00:33:24.150 because you're you're starting from the nature 00:33:24.150 --> 00:33:26.390 you're dropping fast you grew fast you're you're 00:33:26.390 --> 00:33:27.809 down there so you've got it even just getting 00:33:27.809 --> 00:33:31.049 back to where you were there's a lot going on 00:33:31.049 --> 00:33:33.930 there um so you look at that and like obviously 00:33:33.930 --> 00:33:37.009 construction lagged now hvac didn't follow that 00:33:37.009 --> 00:33:41.559 same path Because construction is about new build 00:33:41.559 --> 00:33:47.539 in most cases. You bet. HVAC is new build, but 00:33:47.539 --> 00:33:50.240 it's also a lot of maintenance. There's a lot 00:33:50.240 --> 00:33:52.559 of replacement activity. In some respects, you're 00:33:52.559 --> 00:33:55.480 like roofers that way. Yeah, exactly. You know, 00:33:55.480 --> 00:33:58.819 there's a lifespan. Yeah. And your HVAC system 00:33:58.819 --> 00:34:01.599 is only going to last so long. Yeah. And sometimes 00:34:01.599 --> 00:34:04.119 it's longer. Perpetual replacement. Yeah. So 00:34:04.119 --> 00:34:06.200 there's going on. And, you know, there's been 00:34:06.200 --> 00:34:09.159 lots of. Bonus programs and credits have been 00:34:09.159 --> 00:34:11.480 given for improving the efficiency of systems. 00:34:11.679 --> 00:34:13.980 Oh, yeah. So, you know, that's work. And, you 00:34:13.980 --> 00:34:16.860 know, and people look at it. And, you know, I 00:34:16.860 --> 00:34:19.260 think the prevalence of, like, maintenance contracts 00:34:19.260 --> 00:34:25.519 have improved. Especially as people recognize 00:34:25.519 --> 00:34:30.559 the value and comfort of a well -balanced home. 00:34:30.559 --> 00:34:33.349 Well -tuned system. You bet. Many of these roles 00:34:33.349 --> 00:34:36.150 we're talking about do not require four -year 00:34:36.150 --> 00:34:38.989 degrees. They may require apprenticeships. They 00:34:38.989 --> 00:34:41.849 may require certifications, associate degrees. 00:34:42.190 --> 00:34:47.929 Do we know, overall, what percentage of jobs 00:34:47.929 --> 00:34:50.750 across the U .S. require a four -year degree 00:34:50.750 --> 00:34:53.250 in comparison to these non -traditional four 00:34:53.250 --> 00:34:59.190 -year degree jobs? We do track that as well. 00:35:00.800 --> 00:35:05.260 we have i'm just uh okay so looking through and 00:35:05.260 --> 00:35:08.199 this is the education tables from the employment 00:35:08.199 --> 00:35:11.440 projections are the the five series so 5 .2 table 00:35:11.440 --> 00:35:14.739 is the one that it gives the breakout from no 00:35:14.739 --> 00:35:19.400 formal educational credential to um doctoral 00:35:19.400 --> 00:35:24.639 professional so what i think is going to surprise 00:35:24.639 --> 00:35:28.239 people is really when you start looking at typical 00:35:28.239 --> 00:35:32.340 educational requirements the requirements are 00:35:32.340 --> 00:35:36.559 much lower than most people would expect. So 00:35:36.559 --> 00:35:42.780 if you look at bachelor's degrees, that's about 00:35:42.780 --> 00:35:47.139 a quarter of jobs are bachelor's, require a bachelor's 00:35:47.139 --> 00:35:53.199 degree. If you add in doctoral professional degrees, 00:35:53.380 --> 00:35:56.019 which is like your doctors and lawyers, master's 00:35:56.019 --> 00:36:04.559 degrees, that's another 5%. 30 % of jobs require 00:36:04.559 --> 00:36:10.860 a bachelor's or higher. 70 % do not? That is 00:36:10.860 --> 00:36:17.440 correct. Whoa. Right. Some of the things you 00:36:17.440 --> 00:36:21.880 think are higher, when you look at associate's 00:36:21.880 --> 00:36:24.119 degree, post -secondary, non -degree awards, 00:36:24.559 --> 00:36:27.500 some college, no degree, that's only another 00:36:27.500 --> 00:36:33.550 10%. no kidding and then high school diplomas 00:36:33.550 --> 00:36:37.550 35 .7 percent yeah no formal education requirement 00:36:37.550 --> 00:36:41.829 23 .7 that is intriguing those doctoral professional 00:36:41.829 --> 00:36:45.070 degrees where it's 2 .7 percent of the distribution 00:36:45.070 --> 00:36:50.510 126 000 a little over 126 000 a year for them 00:36:50.510 --> 00:36:53.969 if you're looking at no formal educational credential 00:36:53.969 --> 00:36:57.550 required thirty five thousand six hundred sixty 00:36:57.550 --> 00:37:00.630 dollars that is a big change so like there's 00:37:00.630 --> 00:37:02.230 there's things and like your bachelor's degree 00:37:02.230 --> 00:37:08.170 people are about 92 92 000 a year and of course 00:37:08.170 --> 00:37:11.489 that you know this is median and we understand 00:37:11.489 --> 00:37:14.869 that like you've got people who are bachelor's 00:37:14.869 --> 00:37:16.670 degree people who are making two three hundred 00:37:16.670 --> 00:37:19.190 thousand dollars a year and you have you know 00:37:19.190 --> 00:37:23.579 some of the some of the making 40 ,000 educators 00:37:23.579 --> 00:37:25.679 making 40 with a bachelor's. Yes. Yeah. Yeah. 00:37:25.739 --> 00:37:27.360 I didn't want to call out a particular occupation. 00:37:27.519 --> 00:37:31.760 I will. You don't have to. Um, but yeah, so like 00:37:31.760 --> 00:37:34.880 those, those things are going on and you know, 00:37:34.920 --> 00:37:39.039 the other area where there seems to be some, 00:37:39.039 --> 00:37:43.460 some differences, like those bachelor's degree, 00:37:43.599 --> 00:37:46.840 um, they expected, you know, when you kind of 00:37:46.840 --> 00:37:50.239 sum those with the typical requirement, bachelor's 00:37:50.239 --> 00:37:53.769 degree. I expect to have about 5 .6 % growth 00:37:53.769 --> 00:37:57.969 over the coming, that projection period. Master's 00:37:57.969 --> 00:38:02.449 degree, 10 .2%. Professional degree is 5 .6%. 00:38:02.449 --> 00:38:06.550 Now you get done, associate's degree are like 00:38:06.550 --> 00:38:13.130 4 .5%. Post -secondary non -degree award, 5 .1%. 00:38:13.130 --> 00:38:16.030 But then you look at like high school diplomas 00:38:16.030 --> 00:38:20.289 and then no requirements, 1 .7, 1 .6. so much 00:38:20.289 --> 00:38:23.630 slower yeah but once again this is a large population 00:38:23.630 --> 00:38:28.570 yeah yeah you know and you're 35 35 of your people 00:38:28.570 --> 00:38:31.530 are high school diplomas so like there's a there's 00:38:31.530 --> 00:38:34.670 a huge wage range of occupations so like individual 00:38:34.670 --> 00:38:36.469 occupations obviously within those are going 00:38:36.469 --> 00:38:37.889 to be doing much better and as we talked about 00:38:37.889 --> 00:38:41.429 earlier you know there's a lot of growth for 00:38:41.429 --> 00:38:45.760 hvac as compared to even other similar um you 00:38:45.760 --> 00:38:47.739 know maintenance occupations installation maintenance 00:38:47.739 --> 00:38:50.760 repair occupations so like don't sometimes don't 00:38:50.760 --> 00:38:57.619 get thrown off right by uh by that because you 00:38:57.619 --> 00:39:00.199 know the when you're when you're talking hvac 00:39:00.199 --> 00:39:05.500 there may not be a school you know you might 00:39:05.500 --> 00:39:07.739 they might put you in that post -secondary non 00:39:07.739 --> 00:39:09.980 -degree award but we're going to say that it's 00:39:09.980 --> 00:39:14.130 a high school diploma. But we recognize that 00:39:14.130 --> 00:39:16.030 there's some sort of apprenticeship long term 00:39:16.030 --> 00:39:18.369 on the job training, which is the same, you know, 00:39:18.369 --> 00:39:20.010 in some respects, it's moving up the ladder. 00:39:20.110 --> 00:39:24.130 You know, like you're doing, it's, you know, 00:39:24.130 --> 00:39:26.349 multiple, multi -discipline cross training in 00:39:26.349 --> 00:39:29.530 your, in HVAC. You're getting low voltage electricity, 00:39:29.610 --> 00:39:31.349 you're getting high voltage electricity, you're 00:39:31.349 --> 00:39:34.469 getting gas and safety things. You're, so like, 00:39:34.510 --> 00:39:36.469 although, you know, some hydraulic stuff, so 00:39:36.469 --> 00:39:38.250 like all these different things that are part 00:39:38.250 --> 00:39:40.829 of that. Part of that scope are things you're 00:39:40.829 --> 00:39:44.050 being trained on, which is moves your value up 00:39:44.050 --> 00:39:47.489 and the expected earnings helps it up because 00:39:47.489 --> 00:39:49.869 you're doing more and you're learning more and 00:39:49.869 --> 00:39:53.610 you have lots of transferable transferability 00:39:53.610 --> 00:39:56.429 on the information you're learning. A lot of 00:39:56.429 --> 00:40:00.309 opportunity, a lot of potential for growth within 00:40:00.309 --> 00:40:02.710 the HVAC industry. And that's really what we 00:40:02.710 --> 00:40:05.690 wanted to show and help people understand. But 00:40:05.690 --> 00:40:08.730 I love data. I love analytics. We could do this 00:40:08.730 --> 00:40:11.730 for hours and still have a fun time doing it. 00:40:11.809 --> 00:40:14.510 But I know our audience is limited to a certain 00:40:14.510 --> 00:40:18.449 amount of time. So let's make sure, though, that 00:40:18.449 --> 00:40:21.949 we walk away understanding where can we get more 00:40:21.949 --> 00:40:25.429 resources? Where does all this data come from? 00:40:25.449 --> 00:40:27.949 So their audience can go dive deeper for themselves. 00:40:28.130 --> 00:40:31.869 So I think a great starting point is of course 00:40:31.869 --> 00:40:35.929 the occupational outlook handbook. You can, that's 00:40:35.929 --> 00:40:42.969 90. Let's see. That's like BLS. So I've got so 00:40:42.969 --> 00:40:50.710 many pages open and it's BLS, BLS .gov is the, 00:40:50.710 --> 00:40:54.500 is the main part of it. And then I just want 00:40:54.500 --> 00:40:59.000 to make sure I'm giving the correct thing. So, 00:40:59.039 --> 00:41:03.880 and I was correct. It's BLS .gov backslash OOH 00:41:03.880 --> 00:41:07.159 backslash. So the Occupational Local Handbook, 00:41:07.280 --> 00:41:10.059 OOH, that's a great starting point. If you change 00:41:10.059 --> 00:41:15.400 that OOH to an EMP, that's first three letters 00:41:15.400 --> 00:41:17.159 of employment, that's going to take you to the 00:41:17.159 --> 00:41:19.369 Employment Projections Group. Nice. And that's 00:41:19.369 --> 00:41:22.070 where you've got access to all our data tables 00:41:22.070 --> 00:41:27.570 and things like that. And obviously, if it gets 00:41:27.570 --> 00:41:29.610 to be in -depth stuff and they have other questions, 00:41:30.190 --> 00:41:33.349 you know, there's a email form that you can fill 00:41:33.349 --> 00:41:35.150 out and we will get back to you. There are numbers 00:41:35.150 --> 00:41:38.670 and you talk to one of my coworkers or depend 00:41:38.670 --> 00:41:40.489 on how technical the question is, you'll be talking 00:41:40.489 --> 00:41:46.550 to me. But yeah, so like BLS. or slash ooh .gov 00:41:46.550 --> 00:41:50.289 slash ooh is the main is the main place to to 00:41:50.289 --> 00:41:53.309 go because that gives you access to all the occupational 00:41:53.309 --> 00:41:55.789 information we have in that the some of the starting 00:41:55.789 --> 00:41:58.769 information because that has things like uh when 00:41:58.769 --> 00:42:02.329 you when you when you go in you each one each 00:42:02.329 --> 00:42:08.059 profile that we have on there has several different 00:42:08.059 --> 00:42:09.980 tabs. There's a summary tab, which kind of goes 00:42:09.980 --> 00:42:12.719 through the typical pay and outlook information. 00:42:13.320 --> 00:42:15.079 And then there's a what they do, which talks 00:42:15.079 --> 00:42:17.079 a little bit about some of the things that each 00:42:17.079 --> 00:42:19.300 occupation does. There's a work environment that 00:42:19.300 --> 00:42:21.780 talks a little bit about where people work, injury 00:42:21.780 --> 00:42:24.400 illnesses, work schedules, things like that. 00:42:24.500 --> 00:42:26.219 How to become one, which talks about the education 00:42:26.219 --> 00:42:28.699 and training, certifications, licensure, some 00:42:28.699 --> 00:42:31.519 important qualities. There's a pay tab, and then 00:42:31.519 --> 00:42:33.219 there's a job outlook tab that kind of talks 00:42:33.219 --> 00:42:39.449 about those what's going on with the, you know, 00:42:39.449 --> 00:42:43.409 total employment, the change, as well as some 00:42:43.409 --> 00:42:46.429 of the, some of the factors that are there that 00:42:46.429 --> 00:42:49.670 are driving growth and change. And of course, 00:42:49.670 --> 00:42:50.869 in this case, it's absolutely growth through 00:42:50.869 --> 00:42:52.789 our occupations where we talk about declines, 00:42:52.789 --> 00:42:56.489 but not this one. Awesome. All right. Well, thank 00:42:56.489 --> 00:42:59.449 you, William Lawhorn and the Bureau of Labor 00:42:59.449 --> 00:43:01.849 Statistics. We really appreciate you joining 00:43:01.849 --> 00:43:06.210 us and diving deeper into the state of HVACR. 00:43:06.670 --> 00:43:08.610 Yeah. So, you know, if you, and down the road, 00:43:08.650 --> 00:43:11.030 if you have any more questions, we maybe we'll, 00:43:11.030 --> 00:43:13.849 we'll, we can talk again about some more specific 00:43:13.849 --> 00:43:17.130 topics. We were really general and broad on this 00:43:17.130 --> 00:43:19.710 one. And I think, I think, I think we overwhelmed 00:43:19.710 --> 00:43:22.230 ourselves with our, with our scope on this one. 00:43:23.750 --> 00:43:26.010 That's all right. We got a good overview and 00:43:26.010 --> 00:43:29.489 I'm like, I'm with you. So let us know as you're 00:43:29.489 --> 00:43:31.650 listening to this podcast, what components were 00:43:31.650 --> 00:43:34.170 you most intrigued with? And maybe we can dive 00:43:34.170 --> 00:43:38.010 deeper on another episode. And keep an eye out, 00:43:38.030 --> 00:43:42.130 tail end of 2026, we'll have new projections 00:43:42.130 --> 00:43:47.610 for the 25 to 35 projection period. Projections 00:43:47.610 --> 00:43:49.949 come out annually from the U .S. Bureau of Labor 00:43:49.949 --> 00:43:53.130 Statistics and things change, although factors 00:43:53.130 --> 00:43:58.530 continue on. Thank you so much. I really appreciate 00:43:58.530 --> 00:44:00.929 the opportunity to speak with you today. Yeah, 00:44:00.929 --> 00:44:02.849 it's a lot of fun. Thank you so much. And we 00:44:02.849 --> 00:44:05.539 will see you all in the next episode. Did You 00:44:05.539 --> 00:44:09.000 Know, the ESCO HVAC podcast. Bye, everybody.