Hi, I'm Sunny Dean. And I'm Scott Drakeford.
And this is the Publishing Radio podcast. In
2022, we both launched debut novels in the same
genre with the same publisher in the same year.
But despite having very similar starts, our books
and subsequently each of our careers went in
very different directions. That pattern repeats
itself throughout the industry over and over.
Why do some books succeed while others seem to
be dead on arrival? In this podcast, we aim to
answer those questions and many more, along with
how to build and maintain an author career. Everyone
signing a contract deserves to know what they're
really signing up for. In an industry that loves
its secrets, we'll be sharing real details from
real people. We'll cover the gamut of life as
a Big Five published author, from agents to publishing
contracts, finances, and more. talk about the
absence at the start do we at least acknowledge
it time has passed and what brings us back to
it which is I think we stopped when we ran out
of things to say and had books to work on and
we wanted to record one again because we fucking
felt like it and we don't need to do this for
sponsorships we have no rules and we have no
bosses we have no schedule we need to follow
no baby jesus dolls that we need to sell they
never gave us that sweet sponsorship huh we talked
about having a guest for this one and i think
actually it just takes a lot of stress out to
not do that As much as I have enjoyed all of
our guests, and I don't regret any of the ones
we recorded, including the ones we couldn't air.
There were like four or five episodes, I think,
in the end, which never actually made it out.
Due to either the episode had to be pulled, or
guests felt they kind of changed their mind,
which is totally within their remit, or they
just didn't have the time to get around to edits
and approval. that's fine. But man, it, you know,
it adds a lot of stress and time basically in
a lot of edits and maybe we'll bring one on again
sometime, but I'm not fussed at the moment. And
nobody really wants to talk about how shitty
it is after a first contract is gone and what
the state of the industry really looks like.
So I guess it's just us, huh? I think that's
the heart of the issue. There has been a lot
of chatter this year. I guess everyone's on the
same zeitgeist wave about career longevity and
life after debut. And that's something that obviously
we have been dealing with ourselves and we've
been talking about a lot with our friends. The
kind of the heart of what's even driving this
brief revival from the grave, which we shall
shortly climb back in, is the fact that we probably
know fewer people now who are... agented or in
contract than we did when this podcast started
and that's not because our friendship group has
changed uh that's because a lot of people are
just not or even like if there are some some
people are there but they're like career ghosts
i want to say I remember reading that statistic
about how a lot of books fall off. A lot of authors
get kind of bumped out of the industry after
the first couple of books, their contract wraps
up and thinking, that's so high, surely it won't
be that bad. And a few years down the line, I'm
looking at it going, actually, that's about right,
I think. Probably at least 40 % of the people
we know are struggling to stay in or are totally
gone. And that includes some very big books where
the first book didn't actually do very well.
And so the second book is kind of there, but
has like no reads or anything. I mean, my second
book has like 37 Goodreads ratings or something
a year after release. Like basically just friends
and family and not even most of those have read
it. But that's somewhat expected given the circumstance,
right? But yeah, for that to happen to big books
or at least a big debut and then their second
book. lands like that i mean you're just never
safe the thing that we keep coming up against
again and again is we have friends that like
their book does not even badly uh and not even
like middling sometimes the book does really
quite well like hitting sunday times list i i
know that that's that doesn't mean what it used
to because nowadays the you know crateflation
and listflation is such that hitting the list
is like a minimum rather than you know a great
celebration for publishers they don't they just
see it as whatever but you know books that earn
out and they do really well and they hit lists
and they make award lists and the publishers
then turn around and go still not good enough
we think your second book is not going to sell
right and that's That's just crazy to me because
there is a drop from debut to sophomore and publishers
seem to know it is. And when I talked about it
a bit on Threads, the wonderful Chuck Tingle
commented and he said that he'd been told by
publishers that, yeah, your second book generally
sells about 30 % less. And publishers just seem
to know this and they just seem to take it for
granted. Instead of like... kind of supporting
book 30 more i guess i don't i don't know they
just seem to kind of bake that into their future
predictions and go oh well based on this we think
your next book is going to do like that and they
don't calculate your say your they don't calculate
your crates they assume that's not going to happen
they assume that all the good things that lined
up the first book won't repeat um so they end
up with this very low prediction for what your
second book is and based off that they then don't
offer contracts or my my new least favorite thing
which is offering people telling people oh if
you pitch your option now we won't buy your book
yeah so why don't you wait till the sales come
through for your second one and try again and
like a lot of people are hearing that i think
from different publishers and to me i personally
can't see the advantage for authors i feel like
if you if you wait for those sales to come back
they're not going to be good because book two
is not going to get pushed and you're then going
to have to you're going to get rejected anyway
but you're going to have to go and sub with a
bad sales record as opposed to an unknown one
well and i mean the drop in sales makes sense
from book one to book two for a series right
for i mean typically we're selling trilogies
because there's just naturally going to be a
drop off of people who read the first book and
and didn't like it enough to continue and nobody
there at least nobody sane is reading a book
two without having read book one but for you
know, a contract like yours, where you have a
contract for three standalones that just, I mean,
minus those big things you mentioned, like crates,
Barnes and Noble picks, et cetera, that are much
harder to account for. That makes sense. Stripping
those out of, or at least applying some modifier
to represent not being able to count on those
happening again. for sales projections makes
sense, right? But absent those, there's absolutely
no reason for a publisher to just assume that
a second book not in a series is going to sell
worse, especially given the name recognition
that the first book will have built in the fandom.
The only reason would be lack of publisher output,
right? Lack of publisher effort. It, unfortunately,
they dictate how our careers start, they dictate
how our careers progress, and then they get to
set the terms for when and how we sign a second
deal. The unfortunate thing is that it's not
cut and dry either. Like I can think of at least
a dozen or more authors who signed either low
or middling deals for debut contracts right and
they finished out that contract they didn't get
a second contract based on the option that they
turned in but they didn't just like stop writing
and that's why they haven't been picked up again
they're still writing they in their minds are
still a published author and i mean they are
right yeah but a lot of people are pushed out
of the industry and are just spinning their wheels
on this dream and hoping to get back in when
I just don't see that happening other than a
few instances where people are switching genres
or changing names, et cetera. And even then,
it seems very, very rare. We actually, we collected
some responses to talk to people about this,
which came with the caveat that they were happy.
not the caveat, which came with the condition
they were happy for some of them to be shared.
And it was just, it was about different people's
experiences because not everyone necessarily
wanted to talk about it, but some did. And, you
know, some people, so some of the questions that
we asked were basically, you know, what year
did you debut? Because I think that makes the
difference. I think people, I find generally
people who debuted a bit earlier seem more optimistic,
possibly that's self -selecting because they
debuted earlier and they're still here, they've
survived. But let's see. I don't think I've seen
this. I don't, I don't, I don't think I've seen
the responses. So I'm very interested. Okay.
Can, can you actually see this? So, well, okay.
We can edit through it as needed, but basically
it was like, were you a lead? You know, how are
you published? Most people responding were big
five. And it's a mix of things. You know, what
was your experience like working on book two?
You know, so one person said they felt the biggest
difference is a systemic thing that went beyond
publishing. Even though book two is a better
book, there wasn't debut buzz. So I think that
is a real thing that that is legitimately an
issue. You're not new and exciting anymore once
you've published your first book. And this is
something I'm thinking about a lot because I
feel like I had a really good start. My book
did probably as well as I could have hoped for
it to do. And I'm staring down the barrel of
book two, and I'm very acutely aware that all
the things which lined up for book eaters are
not going to line up the same way again for Girl
of a Thousand Faces. Just all the different special
editions that we got, you know, all the different
book of the month, you know, that's out of your
control. The things that made the biggest difference
to my sales, I don't think I will necessarily
get. And that means I'm relying on track record,
which I'm not convinced sells books. and the
publisher putting in the effort a second time,
which you need with the standalone. Yeah, that
is interesting because, well, I haven't read
the final draft yet, but I've said it before,
but as much as I love book eaters, I do think
Girl with a Thousand Faces is better. I think
it's better, but it's not a high concept book.
I think the cover helps to make it high concept
in a way. It really needed that. And I'm tracking
all kinds of metrics, right? So the first time
around, I tracked Goodreads ads for book eaters
month by month. Again, and I'm doing the same.
I'm way behind compared to book eaters at the
moment. I tracked cover reveal, but I think,
oh, we did this, didn't we? We talked a bit about
the cover reveal and went back through all of
Tor's cover reveals the past two years and put
it in a data sheet. And I think, honestly, the
overwhelming trend was that the... response you
get to a cover reveal is actually reflective
of how big your platform is already rather than
indicative of organic excitement around the book
you know obviously brandon sanderson gets like
like his cover reveal is just like they don't
even do them sometimes they're just like oh we've
there's a new brandon sanderson book coming out
with like kind of blank template and that'll
get like 15 000 likes because you know You could,
you could do like clip art of just some stick
figures and it wouldn't matter. His readership
will buy it because they love his books and they
love him. So he doesn't, he almost doesn't need
that. But anyway, I got totally sidetracked there.
Yeah. So I, I mean, yeah, I hope it goes well.
I feel like you've got a lot of fans out there,
especially amongst booksellers. And I hope that
translates to at least the book getting a shot
to be on shelves. So some people felt like most
things were the same. Some people felt like there
was a steep drop off in support, interest quality,
you know, no print arcs for second books. That's
quite common. Oh, really? Tor were like, oh,
of course there will be arcs. Why wouldn't there
be? But I did have to push a little bit on the
UK side, I don't think. they saw the advantage
except that they didn't want to match the energy
level kind of thing from the states it's one
of those things where when publishers say well
we're not sure arcs help and you think well then
why the fuck do you print so many of them for
like lead titles and i i mean yes i think basically
like what i get from all these responses is that
it is hard to sustain internal momentum with
your team And I think that is one of the really
the big drivers. There's this great article from
the bookseller where they were talking about
all these articles that have been coming out
about career drop -off. And it has this quote
from David Headley where he's like, well, the
biggest impact on sales is staff turnover. People
leave and no one cares about the book. Where's
it gone? David Headley. Sales truck is an issue
and it is rarely the author's fault ever, says
DHH Literary MD David Headley. He points out
the high staff turnover in publishing houses
as one of the major issues driving poor sales.
An editor buys the book, then the editor leaves.
An assistant takes over. There is no marketing
spend. There is no real passion because it was
not bought by that editor. So how does that affect
the author's career? Heidly says this happened
to one of his authors recently. The book sold
275 copies. It was a lead title, but the editor
left and the book was orphaned. And that is the
reality of the situation. Publishers need to
get control of what they're doing. It's kind
of a brutal statement, but he's not wrong. A
lead title sold 275 copies? If there's no internal
hype, there's no hype at all. I think you've
got to be passionate about your book and then
your agent and your editorial team and the sales
team and then all that feeds all the way down.
I think more and more that that is such an important
component and you have to find ways to drive
that hype. Either you're so fucking big that
everyone's terrified. No one's going to let Brandon
Sanderson's books down, are they? Sorry to keep
using you as an example, Mr. Sanderson. But no
one's going to let... yeah i mean even like jk
rowling right like i bet you're a staff fucking
hater but they're not gonna do anything to not
push those books yeah but i and i mean even a
uh i don't want to say a tear down because that's
rude but a tear or two down right and i'm not
gonna name names after i say something like that
but it does seem like your only choice is to
get big enough that you have your pick of publishers
and therefore your publisher knows that they're
going to lose a moneymaker if they don't put
out or run the gauntlet, right? You're in a lottery
where everything has to line up correctly. And
it seems like the number of people who make it
out of that gauntlet to that one of those tiers
doesn't have to be that Sanderson tier, but one
of those tiers where you effectively have your
pick of publishers and... therefore get the treatment
that you should as a business partner is very
small, right? Like I can't, I don't know anybody
personally who has made that leap from okay sales
or even a debut lead title up into that. They
can go anywhere they want. I know one or two.
So Pretty much everyone we know, I think their
contracts, they've either been offered the same
money more or less or less on the second contract.
Gareth Brown is one person who's bucked that
trend. I think he was like a kind of 500K range
advance the first contract. His next book is
higher. But obviously the first book did sell
like really, really well. It was a two book contract,
right? So his second book is kind of out now.
Another one, Nick Bench. If you remember, he
had all the stuff with film deals going on. He
was offered more. Yeah, I'll get back to you
on that if I can think of anyone else. I mean,
they do exist. They do. But generally, it is
the people who are getting more the second time
around were like lead titles the first time or
lead debuts. Richard Swan got a bit more, didn't
he? It was like a little bit more though. Like
if you account for inflation, it might be less.
And that, I mean, that's probably one of the
examples that surprised me the most because his
debut trilogy sold extremely well. He is very,
as far as I can tell, He's very easy to work
with from the publisher side because he hands
in very clean drafts. He's very productive. He's
a very good writer, in my opinion. And still,
despite sales, despite all of those other intangibles,
or I guess perhaps tangibles in some cases, didn't
really result in a huge outcome. And hopefully
he still has a huge outcome coming in the future.
Well, he's diversifying, isn't he? So, I mean,
that's the thing. So I think Andrea Stewart was
also on here. She's very transparent about her
finances. I think she had essentially the same
deal again. Most people I know either did not
get an option or did not get an increase if someone
offered on their option. I think for Tor, the
people a year before me and our year, I think
I'm kind of... the only one of like the the actual
debuts like that was in quotation marks not um
not people who have had a self -pub history which
i'll get to in a second who's maybe still standing
i'm not including like nightfire and and tour
.com i think ronnie's still in limbo uh i've
not heard from him recently obviously your situation
is um kind of you can talk about that or not
if you want i think other than that yeah people
like nisha tooley and chuck tingle they're doing
really well but they had a self -pub platform
that they brought with them yeah um and basically
just i'm always going to sound like i'm wailing
on reddit but because i think reddit reflects
a lot of author opinion and you know there's
all i remember there being a lot of discussion
on reddit about the things that we say and how
there's a general sense that oh you know if you
keep your head down keep working you can work
your way up the advanced ladder and my difficulty
that is it just feels like bullshit because i
don't feel like that's happening for most people
we know Maybe we just have shit friends. I don't
know. Unlucky. I don't think that's the case.
Cause I mean, we've, we've kind of tried to keep
tabs on, on general outcomes, right. Of, of people
who. Yeah. Yeah. Well, I mean, even beyond friends.
So like James Rollins, right. He debuted quote
unquote with his. fantasy around when my debut
came out my first book came out and obviously
he came from uh writing thrillers where he's
a new york times bestseller and i think his books
did okay um but i don't think they hit it out
of the park and i don't know i don't think i've
seen an announcement at least for a follow -up
after that original trilogy that he signed for
That's a big name, an established writer who,
as far as I can tell, might be on the way out
of sci -fi and fantasy. I don't know. I should
probably look him up and maybe edit his name
out. Well, this is the thing that kind of fills
me with quiet terror is there's a very real sense
that what publishers are looking for is a bestseller
not just a great bestseller that hits list and
drops like a stone but a bestseller with good
sell through hardback and paperback and all that
buys you is the next day of execution you know
to borrow richard's amazing phrase and for me
it's just it feels a little bit like being the
miller's daughter in rumble stiltzkin right where
Someone has told the king that you can spend
gold and you managed to spend gold one time.
And so he comes back and is like, here's more
straw, make more gold. And obviously, you know,
the difference there is I'm choosing to be here
and the miller's daughter isn't. And I choose
to be here because if you can spend enough gold,
one day you get to be the pretty little publishing
princess and you can live safe for the rest of
your life in the castle and not have to spend
anything. Or rather, it doesn't matter what you
spin or don't. But of course, the other difference
is there's no Rumpelstiltskin to come and do
it for me. So I have to actually spin this shit
myself. But yeah, I feel more secure than most
of our friends. I'm in a better position than
a lot of people. And no, I'm very privileged
in that way. And I still worry about it. It still
keeps me up at night because I look at that next
book and think, everyone is assuming it's going
to do 30 % worse than the first one. And I think
it could do. you know if it doesn't get picked
book of the month then it's the paperback will
sell far worse than 30 i think you know it's
not gotten all the different special yeah there's
this it's you stress about it and you don't want
to be that person who a year from now some other
podcast is like oh yeah and then sunny dean fucking
disappears oh my fucking god yeah i mean it does
yeah and i don't recall exactly who was mentioned
in this article but there was an article shared
in our discord about how it was tony morrison
yeah okay it was tony morrison that's right uh
you know authors had a chance to to work up to
building themselves a career and uh you know
developing a style and whatever else whereas
now that's just not the case you don't get three
or six or ten books And over 10 to 15 years to
just keep taking shots, you get your first book
basically. And if that book doesn't break out,
you're fucked. It feels like that at the moment.
I subscribed to the bookseller and I was following
the Frankfurt Book Fair, which we talked about
before this started, but because my agent is
taking Girls a Thousand Phases to Frankfurt as
like a hot list book. And I didn't go to Frankfurt
with book eaters because American agencies, unless
they're massive, don't tend to go as much, I
think. But yeah, one of the articles there, this
guy was saying, in Frankfurt this year, there
are two genres, romanticism and non -romanticism.
And you read stuff like that and you think, oh,
fucking hell, only one genre seems to matter
at a time. Everything has to be a breakout or
it's dropped. And once it is a breakout, you
have to keep being a breakout. You and I chatted
this week about, hey, we should put together
a little e -book or pamphlet or whatever with
all the things we've learned or think we've learned
from doing these interviews. And I think one
of the big ones really is editor influence. But
especially as a debut, how in the hell are you
supposed to know? what the internal politics
of a publisher's editor group looks like. The
best you can do, really, is take shots at editors
who have produced very big sellers in the past,
but then, I mean, this is what I'm sweating about
right now with my historical fiction. historical
fiction about the founding of Mormonism is on
sub right now. And it's on sub with a whole bunch
of big time editors, which is awesome. But it's
also very difficult because they undoubtedly
have very large submission piles that I have
to stand out in. And they have very high standards
of what books they're going to take. And even
then, you still just don't know where it's going
to land, even if one of them were to take it.
You don't know where it's going to land on their
priority list, which then determines where it
lands on the publisher's priority list. So it's
a very opaque industry. Feels hard to make informed
choices that improve your ability. And it feels
like writing an awesome book isn't enough. And
especially writing an awesome book isn't enough.
If it doesn't happen to be your debut somehow.
And fall right in line with what people are looking
to acquire. I think this response. capture something
really well for me six books and i'm more worried
than i've felt since i debuted i feel like i
was steadily building momentum but i'm now being
harmed by the sales track record that comes with
starting with smaller publishers i'm moderately
confident i'll secure some form of publishing
deal but not remotely confident it will be equal
or larger or at the equal or larger publishers
than my current one which makes the continued
workload and health slash family cost of publishing
side of writing harder and harder to justify
there are some positive responses in here but
uh I guess I look at the ones that reflect how
I'm feeling and the things that I worry about.
I'm glad that some people have survived and are
feeling a little bit better, but not everyone
does. Yeah. Yep. Yeah. You know, one thing I've
been thinking about is I'm actually quite glad.
that I published under not my real name for my
debut. And I mean, there's no harm in publishing
under your real name and then going to a pseudonym,
but it does leave, you know, more options open
for me for future pseudonyms to try. We'll be
hearing from Drake Scottford very soon. Drake
Scottford? Maybe. Maybe. And, you know, I am
never going to give up on the Scott Drakeford
stuff either. So that name will die hard. But
I mean, it's a real thing to consider, you know,
like all these people submitting to publishers
and then overjoyed that they get a deal, any
deal. I mean, if you take anything from our podcast,
just. buckle the fuck up and make contingency
plans because the best way to make it in this
industry is to make it from day one i think it's
interesting that there is a spate of people talking
about these situations and that there's a there
is a real sense of anxiety that's worth looking
at and not just ignoring i think yeah I think
there is something there beyond just social media
hysteria. A lot of people are feeling very insecure.
The turnover is insane. I don't, I don't, I've
not kept track of the US side so much, but like
Harper had a crazy two years here. Simon and
Shuster in the UK has also had a crazy couple
of years. And what was the other one? Hodder
in the UK. Oh my God. You mean editor turnover
and staff? Editor and staff turnover, which then.
feeds all the way down the line to authors um
yeah orbit well i think on the u .s side are
having an interesting time it's everywhere basically
it's it's sort of every imprint at least in our
genre um and i don't i don't know what i want
from this discussion other than i deal with anxiety
by like drawing everyone into my circle of anxious
until they feel anxious too which is essentially
what this podcast is for and i guess if there's
merit in telling people that you know you've
you know you're not alone or whatever or maybe
we're just talking to the wind Where has that
guy gone? 10k sales threshold. I wonder if we
have time to seg into that. Unless you've got
anything else to add into this wall of gloom.
But mostly I just wanted to highlight a range
of experiences and be like, look, this is how
it looks from where I'm stood. Maybe if you're
on a different patch of ground, it's better.
It's more hopeful. Maybe everything comes in
waves and it just happens to be that because,
you know, the same way a lot of my friends debuted
within... a narrow bracket of years a lot of
us are facing tricky times at the same time maybe
yeah i don't know yeah yeah i i mean i personally
just think it's helpful for people to know what
they're aiming for right and to know what that
means for them going forward i mean there are
publishers popping up now and i think more in
the uk and You know, the ones that come to mind
are the ones that are associated with the subscription
boxes. So Daphne with IC and then the Broken
Binding with their subscriptions that I think
fund a lot of excellent risk taking. But I think
there are new models emerging where people who
really care about books are building publishing
companies that. can do pretty cool things. Right.
And so we've mentioned it on the podcast before,
but I offered my rights in the UK free of advance
for a reason. And that's because I believed very
deeply in these people that I offered it to,
and there should be an announcement forthcoming.
And because I'm essentially trying to Get another
shot at relaunching, getting in, you know, maybe
some editing that lines up with the story that
I am actually trying to tell. Getting the book
in people's hands. That are hopefully closer
to the target market, that kind of thing. So,
I mean, we're not trying to preach a hard and
fast rule of either you're a super lead or. you
have no chance and there's nothing else you can
do. And that's the only kind of deal you should
take. However, I mean, what we're seeing is pretty
stark. However, we're seeing that the, you know,
the people I know personally who are doing okay
or better than okay are disproportionately, disproportionately
people who had a big advance out the gate. And
by okay, I don't mean like, Cause there's this
thing where people go, Oh, but you know, you
can, you know, if you're sold making a few grand
thousand grand from your books every year, that's
okay. That's not what I mean. I just mean like
they're in the industry at all. It's the, the
issues is just, there's not, it's like you're
not in the industry or you're doing really well.
And there's very, very few people who are clinging
onto that middle kind of. Yeah. That's a really
good point actually, is that, you know, a lot
of people, bring up oh well i don't mind if i
just sign deal after deal where my book only
gets me a ten thousand dollar advance or whatever
right yeah and the thing is i don't see anybody
doing that i other than very established authors
um i don't see any recent debuts that do anything
other than get to that level of repeat six -figure
offers or they're just out so i see it at the
indie press level uh and this is where i'm quite
sad because we we did one interview with broken
binding and one with um george sanderson who
runs titan and we weren't able to air both of
them in the end for various reasons that are
not the faults of those those people but you
know one of the things that that matt talked
about broken bindings he thought that there would
be an increase in smaller publishers and one
of the things that i loved about titan I do know
authors there who routinely get the same advance,
not start over, who routinely get kind of steady
advance levels and they're not making like mega
bucks, but they are kind of like improving and
building and growing in, in that way that authors
kind of used to the bigger publishers where I
think it, it's getting, it's getting harder to,
to stay at the top. Yeah. But it's not. Can you
think of a similar example in the US? Are there
any publishers doing that in the US that you
know of? I don't know the US as well. I'm sure
there are some. I mean, Orbit itself has a functioning
midlist still, although I hear that's changing
a little bit, but I can't comment on that. No
direct experience. I can't think of anybody who...
debuted with a smaller deal with them and got
another similar deal. It's all been six figures
and up that have are still around. Yeah. Yeah.
And even then there's some six figure deals that
disappeared into a black hole. Haven't heard
from those authors in like a couple of years.
Yep. Um, yeah. And I, uh, tower maybe. Um, Maybe,
but I mean, they're the ones that did. Yeah,
but that's an outlier. A lot of their books are
smaller. I mean, you get it in other genres,
definitely like romance and contemporary and
Harlequin scholastic, places like that, which
are not big five, but are big. They have mid
lists of various types. Anyway, sorry, didn't
mean to interrupt and derail. No, no, not at
all. I do think, I will say some positives. So
I think for me this time around, some things
that are a lot easier is I am a lot better positioned
to help my publisher in a way that I was not
for book one. And I know we talked about your
internal team having hype or not. And I would
actually add a third category, which is they're
excited, but they don't have the time and resources.
You can do things for them. Sometimes that can
really help, right? I, so like this time, you
know, I didn't know anyone when I first got published.
This time I was like. I have a spreadsheet and
it's got like 50 names in it. And these are people
you can ask for blurbs or send arcs to or reach
out for. And they're all like categorized by
country with contact details, how I know them
or don't know them or why I think they're suitable.
My publicists love that on both sides. Like,
oh, cool. This is great. And we're all kind of
working out the doc. And that way we don't have
to like waste time emailing each other. You can
be like, okay, they've emailed. that person i've
emailed this person you know we divvied up the
labor you can see responses they come in when
i get a blurb that's come in you know they check
every so often and they kind of stick it on like
the editorial section on amazon or whatever things
like that i feel like because i know more what's
going on i can anticipate things better yeah
i can call on favors uh i have my own links with
bookshops now stuff like that does make it easier
And things that I wouldn't do as a debut, like
I wouldn't go and set up an event. I am this
time. I'm setting up my own launch and my own
after party and actually having people who will
attend. There are things you can do for yourself
when you're not a debut that you cannot do as
a debut. When you are a debut, you do need your
publisher to like haul ass. So in some ways,
the fact that they not as much ass as being hauled,
that sounded terrible for sophomore books because
the debut buzz is just gone. you can kind of
mediate it a bit maybe i don't know not not you're
in a series though if you're in a series you're
a bit fucked sorry you are a hundred percent
yeah that should have put that caveat first because
the problem is your series is really just a long
continuation of book one it is whereas this feels
like we are rebooting me because it's been four
goddamn years since i've or will be oh fucking
hell but i mean I keep saying this as well, but
that initial deal of three standalones is so
smart. So, so smart. Yeah, totally my idea. No,
it wasn't. But it's a boon. I'm very glad I haven't
been writing Devon Book 2 this whole time. This
may be a good point to second to an article that
we've talked about some, which is why publishing
is becoming... like this a little bit and i think
there's lots of different reasons but there's
this great article from what's his name todd
satterston we talked about having him on as a
guest and we were too lazy to organize it decided
we'd just talk about this article without him
here and it's called the magic number um and
i found it really really fascinating and actually
really quite hopeful because basically he's he's
saying that There is a kind of magic sales threshold,
similar to when Dr. Cary Prey was saying there's
like a magic marketing threshold that you have
to hit for books to actually succeed. And he's
saying there is a magic sales threshold that
books have to hit within a certain timeframe
to have a chance of success. And he was looking
at nonfiction, but I found that I think it's
broadly true for fiction as well. Yeah, I mean,
I'll link to it in like our notes and stuff,
but... Let's scroll down. So he used a data set
of 6 ,775 titles. Again, business and self -help
published between 2012, 2015. So it's quite old
now. So there's this magic number that apparently
comes up in publishing of 10 ,000 copies. And
the idea is that if you can get 10 ,000 copies
into the marketplace, it reaches that point,
which Richard Swan has talked about with it.
He quoted his editor, James Long, the point where
a book has a chance to grow its own legs and
is not just relying on marketing push. And so
one of the things he goes into is the fact that,
you know, when a book has a big burst of sales
at the start, but that's 95 % of all the copies
it's ever going to sell, that indicates that
the publisher was marketing well, but the book
has not, for whatever reason, found its longevity,
found its audience. It's not self -sustaining.
It didn't get into that book orbit that they
want where it's just circling. That long tail
is a much better prediction. Long tail across
six months or a year is a much better prediction
of how a book is doing. Then that initial list
hit. Yes. So he found if a book doesn't sell
10 ,000 copies in its first year, there's only
an 11 % chance that title will ever sell more
than 10 ,000 copies. Only a 2 % chance sales
will exceed 25 ,000 and it gets worse from there.
Yeah. And this is like a lot of data. I realize
you're like listening in a car and trying to
pay attention to traffic. But if you can get
in the 10 to 25K copy range for the first year,
you've got a 42 % chance of selling more than
25 ,000 copies. And essentially what he's saying
is the higher you can get into any bracket in
the first year, the more that predicts your long
-term sales, which kind of makes sense, right?
Like we know that like when Richard Osman releases
a book and he sells 140 ,000 copies in his first
week, we know that that means he's going to sell
more. It's not like the next week he drops to
zero. What he's saying is that there is a floor
for this, which is you can't hit that 10k sales
threshold in a year. The book is probably going
to struggle long term and not explode and not
pick up. But I found that hopeful because, firstly,
to just have the number. Firstly, long tail matters.
So, you know, continuing to promote a book after
it's out. It doesn't have to all get that in
the first week. It's not all about that. And
secondly, it basically suggests that quality
does make a difference. It might not in terms
of like the advance you get, you might not get
a flashy advance, but if there's enough support
to get the book to the basic threshold, if it
has staying power, it will stay. That said, it
has to get to at least 10 ,000, if not 25 ,000
in that first year, which I mean, that's attainable.
That's a very attainable number in trad publishing.
But as far as I know, It's mostly books that
are debuting with six figure. Yes. Advances that
are getting to those numbers. So, I mean, he
went into more specific. So he said a book that
sells consistently, for example, 300 copies a
week for 50 weeks has. statistically is better
positioned for long -term success versus a book
that sells most of its 15 000 copies in the opening
10 weeks so he's not even talking about crates
but it really applies to crates yes that if most
of your copies sell because you were in a crate
and there's nothing else going on um and that's
relevant to publishers because i think there
is like a little bit of laziness going on in
the uk this kind of sense that like oh the book
got in the crates we don't have to do jack shit
now we just collect those sales treat the book
as finished a finished product where we made
a fixed number of sales that we can bank on which
we then don't factor into your success when offering
you a new contract because we can't count on
you getting that again which is which is wild
right it's like oh we made all this money from
your crate sales but we're going to assume that
it won't happen you won't lightning won't strike
twice so We're going to say, actually, if you
discount crate sales, your sales sucked, even
though that's the publisher's responsibility
and all. Well, and I don't think it's any secret
that even on the U .S. side that publishers will
put a lot of effort into the lead up to a debut
and maybe in the few weeks or if you're lucky,
a few months after debut. But very rarely am
I seeing at least. significant effort put in
in those months you know three to twelve that
this study suggests are actually the critical
months for sustaining sales and he's not the
only person to say that i've heard from uh the
publicity lady that showed up in that reddit
where she's saying it's ridiculous that actually
i assume it's a she it could be he they said
they that they think it's ridiculous that like
the push stops you know three months after after
the book comes out because actually there is
momentum to be had yeah um and if the goal is
to sell 10k copies consistently steadily in the
first year that's the biggest help you can give
books if we have the link if we have the link
to that ama we should definitely put it in because
that was so good yeah so back up people listening
there was a kind of big five publicity person
who came and did an ama marketing read it on
marketing sorry yeah um and they had a lot of
good answers one of which is like how do you
drum up internal hype for your book and the answer
is you don't you have an agent who puts the fear
of fucking god into your editorial team so that
they are terrified every time an email arrives
from them i thought that's hilarious they they
were very in favor of mean agents and doesn't
that run contrary to the be nice yeah stuff Or
maybe you can be nice, but your agent better
be a dick. Yeah, and better stay on top of stuff.
And I mean, I wish I had that pulled up and had
read through it right before. I should have been
prepared for that. But the things that stick
out to me were her giving very clear answers
to things like, what kind of time are you giving
to the lead titles in any given season versus
everything else? She was saying that, you know,
there are however many two or three lead titles
in any given season that they're working on.
And then potentially what up to a dozen or more
other titles that they are covering for that
same season. And they said straight up that something
like 70 to 80 % of their time and effort and
money and everything is going to those two or
three lead titles in that season. And the remaining
20 % of their effort slash money budget is going
to that other bucket of, of books that, you know,
hopefully they can find something to do for them,
but often it's likely going to be just putting
the ebook on net galley. That was the thing that
I did notice when I was going through the two
years of cover reveals that actually perhaps
what was more relevant was not. the likes an
individual post got but the repetition of likes
for books which were expected to be big hitters
so if you're a big hitter you get like the deal
announcement or you know if if it's part of a
bigger deal the the announcement that there will
be a book and then you get like the cover reveal
and then you get um you know a post when they
have arcs coming out and you get like when there's
a giveaway and then oh this book is out soon
and oh book birthday the book is out now and
oh don't forget this book is out now and yeah
and now it's out in paperback right but if you're
kind of mid list it's more like deal announcement
for one deal you don't repeat it for subsequent
books didn't seem like um cover reveal happy
birthday book is out and that's kind of it so
um i think the it's it's not even sometimes the
money i think she said in one of her comments
it's about like the creativity that they're allowed
to devote yeah um the the mind brain power that
you're allowed to devote to certain books you've
got to put that emphasis on on the bigger ones
and thinking of the uh re -release i think this
is a i know i know people aren't always keen
on hardbacks but having that hardback paperback
release means you do kind of stay in line the
the this field of vision for your publisher that
little bit longer because that is a thing the
paperback coming out it just extends longevity
of your book like you get two launches so all
the all the best things that happened for my
book really on the u .s side where the paperback
all the different promos and things when it becomes
more affordable book of the month picks and stuff
so Yeah. Anyway, that was like a very hodgepodge
kind of collection of different thoughts, gripes,
some bright spots. If people aren't used to us
rambling by now, they never will be. No, I mean,
I kind of organize it when I do it later. But
oh, you found it, the Alma thing. Yeah, we will
link it because it was an interesting read. But
that's just kind of where we are and what we're
doing now that we're both trying to survive.
Second book. to get to the second contract in
your case on submission. If you can say that,
I think in my case, I'm tracking everything that
I can track about my book to see, not because
I can change the outcome, but because documenting
it, it doesn't, I was going to say it makes you
feel better. That's a lie because I, because
I feel compelled to do so. I feel compelled to
document it and see what's different and what's
the same. whether some of the things i think
matter didn't matter which i didn't have a sense
of last time around you know it might might release
might do better than book eaters but have like
terrible goodreads rating or something i don't
know i don't think it will and and for what it's
worth i do think it makes sense in your situation
to be putting effort into maximizing a good first
contract a very good first book that earned you
a lot of goodwill and a lot of fans that makes
a lot of sense and yeah in my case I'm straight
up trying to pivot anywhere I can relaunches
and I'm on set with historical fiction and the
work in progress is one that could be sold as
historical fiction or fantasy probably historical
fantasy under a different name most likely But
maybe the same name if this relaunch in the UK
goes extraordinarily well. Different situations
call for different decisions, for sure. I don't
know if I have anything to add to that other
than this episode is going to need a lot of unscrambling
because I think there's a narrative thread that
we were both all over the place. And if that's
too much work, it can just be a hangout for us.
That's fine. It doesn't have to be released necessarily.
I think, I think, I don't know. I think I enjoy
it. I think I no longer really care if like only
five people listen or 50 ,000 people listen.
I think. Yeah. I think in some ways all our worst
content often ended up being our most popular
worst as in least nuanced, you know, a lot, a
lot of people fixated on carry price thing. And
their takeaway from that is trad pub doesn't
care if your book is garbage, as long as they
market it, it will sell. And that's not really
true. Yeah. because there is a base level of
quality involved. For sure. I don't know. I'm
very uncomfortable with this kind of inbuilt
assumption, this insinuation that successful
books are just sort of garbage by default until
proven otherwise. I don't. Yeah. In fact, I want
to mention something. So I stayed up until 3
a .m. last night reading Kristen Hanna's The
Women. Oh my God. She is so good. She is like
my, she is like my favorite author, at least
of the year. Like I've burned through. I bet
I have a bunch of them behind me. Yep. The Nightingale,
The Four Winds, The Great Alone. And I think
it's very popular, especially in like publishing
or maybe not publishing, maybe like aspiring
publishing or heavy reader groups, right? Or
circles. It's very easy to get into the habit
of trying to find things wrong with people who
have found more success or whatever. But I mean,
the truth is there is a very real bar of quality
that matters. And Kristen Hanna, you live like
20 miles from me. I can probably see your house
from mine. I am a huge fan. Then maybe cut that.
That's an extremely creepy thing to say, but
the women, very good book. Or keep it, whatever.
We say weird stuff all the time. I'll just get
a - But then you reveal your location. I think
just say, oh, I can say you're a huge fan. I'll
get a restraining order in the mail. Yeah, it's
a good book though. I don't know if you've read
any of her stuff. I haven't. I don't even know
what she writes. Is she historical? Yeah. So
she writes, and I mean, they're super popular,
so I'm not like finding a new fantastic author.
Tons of people know about her, but she writes
historical and her thing, at least, so she's
written a whole bunch of books, but these ones
that she's written in the last, I don't know,
five, seven years have been. Very, very popular
since the Nightingale, I think, was her first
mega hit. And it's about a woman in France in
the lead up and then during Nazi occupation in
World War II and what those French freedom fighters
went through, etc. But she puts these stories
into some sort of a historical setup. but it's
almost always a young woman who has some sort
of major challenge, but is falling in love at
the same time. And spoiler alert, most of, if
not all of the people that she falls in love
with die or almost die in some fashion. And so
they're not necessarily like happily ever after
stories, but yeah, she's just a great writer.
I mean. I get sucked into her books every time
and I lose a lot of sleep to them. No, that's
really nice to hear. And, you know, I struggled
for a long time with that. I want to call it
writer arrogance, the kind of turning your nose
up at things, something just because it's popular,
because I did actually grow up reading a lot
of like really fucking weird niche books. I mean,
this is like. in case anyone's like it has ever
read you know the etch city by kj bishop uh you
know that's that's like a kind of class cult
classic new weird book that's 95 imagery five
percent plot has head hopping it's experimental
it's all kinds of stuff you know things books
like that yeah and then i write i've been telling
people it's like a joke when they ask oh i write
commercial shite and i don't think i told you
this story I went to watch as like an audience
member, not a guest. I went to watch a panel
that had Dave Ragg, if you remember him, and
RJ Barker. Yeah, of course. And Adrian Tchaikovsky
in it. And we went out to dinner afterwards and
Adrian's wife, who's very nice, her name's Annie,
and she asked me what kind of books I write.
And I said, commercial shite. And instead of
laughing, she just looked at me in like this
kind of quiet horror with like, why would you
say that about yourself? And it was actually
this real moment where I was like, oh. fuck I
feel really bad like maybe it's not really that
funny to just like call myself shit all the time
I'm gonna stop that so that won't be the last
time I ever say that but yeah I write very commercial
and I read very weird eclectic literary and that
means I produce this writing that is not the
kind of thing I normally read and I did really
struggle with that for a long time um and I don't
know if you've read it but Patrick Stewart had
a memoir out a couple years ago And one of the
themes in that is the fact that, you know, he
comes from like this kind of literary Shakespearean
background, but the thing he ends up being best
known for is Star Trek, like fucking Star Trek.
And how he can, there's this moment where he
does really come to terms with it and the whole
kind of, but it means something to people. And
sometimes. you don't need a deeper meaning to
art other than people enjoy it. And that it's
a shared experience and how meaningful that became
to him in a way that was like different. And
I think I'm kind of in that place now where I
can enjoy commercial fiction more reading it
and writing it. And admit that, you know, I did
really like Michael Crichton novels as well as
KJ Bishop. Not Dan Brown though. That's, that's
a step too far. um i haven't even tried his book
i'm a little bit afraid to there's an interesting
review of it in the guardian where you can you
feel like the the reviewer hated it that he was
like basically paid to write a glowing review
so it's like it's the most damning praise filled
review you've ever read um i'll send you a link
to it later but yeah Yeah, it's a good thing
to hear nice things about books anyway. Yeah.
I probably better let you go. It's nearly 10
p .m. here, and I've got to go watch TV, which
is obviously very important. I just spend my
time. Well, it's always lovely getting to hang
out and chat with you. Well, see you at JT's
Jeremy's thing. Oh, yeah. When's that? Oh, shit.
That's not today, right? Okay. You've been listening
to the Publishing Radio Podcast with Sunny Dean
and Scott Drakeford. Tune in next time for more
in -depth discussion on everything publishing
industry. See you later.