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Hey guys, welcome to the first episode of the uninvested podcast. My name is Crockett Callaway. I'm Sahil Seth

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And today we're gonna be kicking off the inaugural episode of the podcast

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Why and invested to be completely honest for two broke college students would have any money in the game

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The only thing we have invested in the venture capital space is our own interest

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And so every episode we're gonna be breaking down exciting things that are happening in the space

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Really interesting investments that have recently happened and really just general venture capital and investing news

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So what are we talking about today? So today we're gonna be talking about Adobe's acquisition of figma for those for those of you

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That don't know Adobe is really just the grandfather of everything design, you know Photoshop

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Lightroom all these applications and they just bought, you know

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Possibly one of the heart with the hottest startups figma for 20 billion dollars and something really want to get in here is how can they

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Justify this sticker price of 20 billion dollars. It's it's interesting, you know, we've seen before they have they raised nearly

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300 and I think 38 million dollars in funding and to date the revenue is not at that

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I mean they bought it for 20 billion dollars. What's the current revenue right now?

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So they just doubled from 200 million to 400 million

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So that's a 50x revenue multiple and for those of you that don't know what that means

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Essentially, the sticker price is the revenues time some X amount in this case

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It was 20 X which is a number that would be crazy even a year ago when venture capital was pouring all this money to startups

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Even now when we've pumped the brakes during this like current recessionary environment that we're in

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So I think to justify that 50x

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Multiple we have to look at like what are Adobe's motivations in the first place, right?

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Because like we have not seen the acquisition like this and by the way that

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Hasn't gone through yet like the FTC saw us to check it out

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That's it. That's something we'll get to later in the podcast as well. But what are Adobe's motivations behind this?

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You know Adobe is a legacy company. Like I said, you know, some could say they're failing

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You know the age of having you know, this suite of applications is really not something anyone wants anymore

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Everyone wants a one platform business and they saw figmas really their number one competitor in the space

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You know, they're really fast growing the year-over-year growth is insane

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Like we said, they still were able to manage doubling revenues from a staggering number of 200 million to 400 million

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So we want to think about do you think this is a really a defensive move or why other motivations that they'll be half of this?

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so I like think of is defensive and I think the biggest thing that jumps to mind is

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Is when have people done things like this in the past and have those actions been defensive or offensive?

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And so the first thing I think of is is Facebook buying whatsapp for example

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So we see like 2008 whatsapp starts super small private messaging company

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Obviously Facebook at that point had already like been up and coming and they're

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Continuing to grow like insanely rapidly

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But then somewhere around

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2011 Facebook starts to notice what whatsapp is doing a little bit freaked out that it's just first and foremost like a social messaging platform

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Right because Facebook was starting with messenger which they thought was gonna be the next thing

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They end up buying in 2014 Facebook buys whatsapp

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For at the time 19 billion dollars, which I did a little inflation adjustment. That's like a 23 billion dollars today. So even bigger

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Than than the actual deal we're talking about today the figma acquisition

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But at the time it was completely defensive like Facebook was saying at the time that the biggest threat to their growth

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And their future product success, especially for messenger was whatsapp

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And so, you know bought it out completely wiped it off the mark

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I mean still exists in the market today, but like completely eliminated a competitive threat

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And so I think today when we look at like what are Adobe's threats in this space their biggest threats are like these huge new

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Right innovative game changers in the space and that's why designers love figma in the first place exactly

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It's just that one clever platform, but just jumping what you're the point about Facebook

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You know, they've been known to make these defensive maneuvers think about buying Instagram

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But something I really want to think about is Facebook really didn't integrate whatsapp and she and they really kept them separate

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You know, but I think Adobe's gonna take a different out here and they're really gonna like integrate fake

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But there's not gonna still be you know figma by Adobe or maybe just thinking by itself

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I would think they're gonna make it one cohesive platform, you know, unlike what Facebook is doing

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They kind of like had this cannibalization of their same

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Customers, you know, we have the young people going on Instagram old people still going on Facebook and really like no mix of the in-between here

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So that's one of the words I have about you know

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Adobe trying to keep figma separate is they're really gonna cannibalize their existing market rather than merging it

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So, I mean when we talk about that existing market to like I think at the end of the day

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The UI UX space is completely driven by designers. It's like a weird like cultish space a little bit

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designers have these toolkits of like products they use their own product suite if you will and

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They're like super culty about the things they like and they build these like online reddit communities behind what they like and they're actually a lot

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Of people right now who are super unhappy with the deal from the designer end

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There are massive communities of designers who are kind of outraged at what's happening because they've seen before previous acquisitions of

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Smaller UI startups and UI integrations where their integrations and they're really their innovation just halts once they get once they get acquired

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Do you think like what Adobe's gonna do right now is like because you mentioned they're gonna integrate them into their product suite

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Do you think their ideas like keep building it or kind of just like fizzle it into what they have right now?

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Yes, so my only thought is you know, I was reading on tech crunch

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They had this really big idea that Adobe is essentially gonna go into figma

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If you will set up a figma becoming, you know

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Just another part of the creative cloud suite and I really think that's what's gonna happen that Adobe's gonna become figma

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We have this one cohesive platform, you know, you're gonna be on Photoshop

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I could be doing it right alongside you because that really is the future this collaborative natures of company going in the future

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You know, we can't have this, you know one product here one product here

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And then you'll combine them at the end who really need to be working on it

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You know start to finish together to really understand the customer that aspect for these faster and faster iterations that you know

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The current market landscape is calling for so your your idea right now is that right Adobe has bought let's say let's imagine like

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Six months from now FTC puts a green stamp on this deal goes through right which by the way

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I'd be like I would be I would say six months is like probably kind of

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Like liberal with that like I think it's probably closer to a year until this goes through

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Because by the way, like this is it's essentially monopolies what they're creating. Yeah, we can talk about that

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You know these legacy companies buying sharks, but we'll pump the brakes on that for now

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We'll put the brakes for a second. So my idea let's say imagine they put a green stamp on the deal. Yeah

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Next year a year from now is you log on to Adobe comm and when you go to your manager subscriptions on their creative cloud

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Which is just their suite of platforms

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Do you have access to buy Adobe Figma or when you log on to figures website just as figma by Adobe like who's retaining?

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Kind of a larger brand image and ownership here. I think it has to be Adobe

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They're not really going for a complete rebrand. I want to say like into figma

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They don't want to steal essentially figmas thunder and say oh, we are now figma figmas our competitor

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That's really kind of like submitting to them rather than they're gonna take the best

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aspects of figma and kind of use it to

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Refuel Adobe in that nature really try to take over figmas growth for themselves and like

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Reestablish themselves as this number one player, you know going into the future

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Mm-hmm. See, I mean my idea though there is that I think the most important thing to like when we talk about like who's retaining

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brand ownership, right I

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Think we have to go back to my earlier point is designers in the first place, right?

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Because designers biggest thing is that they're afraid that they're gonna go log on to figma comm

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It's gonna redirect them to this like old grandfather legacy product like Adobe XD

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That now just has little snippets of what they liked from the past

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But the end of the day people jump onto figma and I think this is something that hopefully we'll discuss in future

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Podcasts people jumped on it because it was just an insane amount of innovation happening really quickly

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I mean figma is a it's a sub 10 year old startup, right and and they've done more stuff, you know native real-time

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like collaborative editing

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You know prototyping and stitching between the UI to UX landscape

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They've done stuff that like hasn't been available before and I think people's fear is that look we invested our time our efforts

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companies have invested enterprise level subscriptions into figma and

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Now figma is just gonna revert back to what people stopped using ten years ago

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I think that's their fear here, but I could be totally wrong

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So you're kind of thinking like figma is gonna like fade away into the fold that is the greater, you know

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Adobe what it is

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That's my fear here

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And I think look if we talk if we go back to what we just talked about about being a defensive maneuver

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I think really defensive maneuver right like they're eliminating their competition

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But I think when we look at it from the consumers perspective, it might not be in their best interest

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I think there's that there's this real fear here that you know, they're gonna be completely stalled

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I

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Don't know my thoughts are really that you know, like you were saying you're gonna type in figma.com

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That's gonna be saving is typing adobe.com. It's gonna be you a one application. Maybe just even one online platform

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I know it's gonna take a lot of infrastructure to really take all those separate applications like like we talked about Photoshop

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Adobe XD and bring them all into one like application, but that is really what I think Adobe needs going in the future

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You know you're not gonna be able to pick and choose which different

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Sweets you want maybe that will based on like their different subscription models

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They have like you have access to all of these or you have access, you know only two of the products

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But I do think it's gonna be one interactive platform now going forward instead of like multiple separate platforms

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I will say though recent quote from Dylan Field who's the co-founder

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original co-founder of

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Figma and still continues on he recently said Adobe is deeply committed to keeping figma operating

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autonomously and I will continue to serve as CEO and so I think this is kind of

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Insighting that they want them to remain completely separate

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I think that like there's probably a fear on his end that that joining them a little bit more like they know who their competitor

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Yes, they know that their main competitor is someone who people view is very old

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and so I think like I

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Actually kind of disagree. I think that way

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Although what I'd like to think is Adobe's gonna swallow them up

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Like I think there's gonna be real pressure and this is probably part of the deal in the first place

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Yeah, I find it very interesting because you know Adobe did I believe they bought Figma with half a stock essentially when Adobe was in the

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Attempt of buying back shop really doing like a reverse maneuver to buy it by thing

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So I wonder if like that was part of like the stipulations how you know figma

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They want some stake in Adobe rather than just like becoming Adobe itself

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Which is interesting though because I don't know because I now you're talking about like keeping them autonomous

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I feel like they're really just gonna cannibalize their own market like Adobe customers are just gonna become

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figma customers

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Essentially, I mean from that perspective like do you think it's gonna be like they're forced to almost like they have they have no real choice

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In this matter, they just get introduced to this new figma

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I don't like Adobe figma is maybe the new service will pioneer like they just get introduced and they're forced to do that

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Or do you think they're actually really gonna lose that market?

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I think they will lose that market because this ties back to you know, like that Facebook Instagram thing

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Facebook really did lose that market, you know, we can see Facebook is going through their own terminal right now

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You know, they've tried other rebrands with meta metaverse not panning out

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Maybe they will in the future

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But my fear is that this is really just like a Facebook Instagram parallel where this giant legacy company Adobe

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You know, they bought this very hot up-and-coming

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startup now like high growth company and you know

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They're just competing for the same markets in that aspect but so what I look at is a little bit different, too

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So when we think about them losing this massive market just because of you know, the sticker price in their previous market share

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Let's go back to that. Let's look at when Facebook bought Instagram, right?

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Yeah, one of the reasons they bought Instagram is because the demographic for Instagram was way younger than Facebook

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It's true and they didn't want to lose out on that market now figma

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At the time of the purchase had 77% of the market and so you could say they were already a monopolist

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On this market. Yeah, Adobe who was kind of like poor shriveling out like disheveled who's by the way

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They're their stock sticker price was in the down down 46% I think over the year something like that

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This was completely like look we have way more money than you but you are on a way better trajectory than us

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And so I think it's like and in this case and this is my larger point when Facebook bought Instagram

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Even though they had this dominance over the market

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I don't think they lost much of their consumer base consumers were kind of fine that like that remaining with existing

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Consumer base will stay the same for Adobe, you know, the Adobe's not gonna lose to figma

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But I'm saying what about the new people, you know, like we just made our logo off of figma for free

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Like you're not gonna go use Adobe. Yeah, you're gonna stay with figma. How can Adobe compete to get new customers then?

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How can they compete to get well, okay, let's let's take it like one by one

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So there's the question how can they compete to get new customers?

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But then how can they retain their own customers and kind of like avoid churn, right?

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And so I think when it's retaining customers, it's just they have to remain they kind of like garner that loyalty

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Just by continuing the path of innovation like being very transparent a quote like that from Dillon Field about

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Her remaining on a CEO. I think it's like really important

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Yeah, especially for this huge very like invested consumer base in the design industry where people are like

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Constantly obsessed with what they're they're working on. But when we look at like gathering new consumers, I don't know

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I think it's like I wonder if they're gonna continue to be an industry cannibal and just go after

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All of these startups that we see today are already integrating with figma. Yeah, I wonder how that's gonna change those integrations in the first place

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I think

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Sahil and I were chatting about this when the deal initially happened. There are

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Hundreds of startups now whose entire existence is dependent upon figma, right?

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Like they exist so that UI designers can just pull them into the toolkit and integrate them

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I mean, do you think they're gonna lose all those as well or like I

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Don't know. It's just a question. Let's see in the future

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I think they will lose in the at the end of the game

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They're gonna pour all their money into figma

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But I sort of know going back to our first point of you know a 50x revenue multiple if we're not seeing like

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Adobe's core business itself getting any increase in revenue rather than just you know taking on figmas rent revenue

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I think maybe an interesting

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Note on that topic is because I feel like at this point right like we could we could pick this apart all day

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But I think something that's really interesting here is when you're in a position like Adobe was where you are

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Although you have a ton of capital

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Your shareholder support is tanking your stocks are down people are not using your services figma owns

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77% of the design market meanwhile Adobe's been pumping

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Millions into Adobe XD and Photoshop and Lightroom over the last 15 years

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In general, what are your options as as a company because they chose to make a maneuver, right?

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We're gonna buy out this company exactly. There's also the you know, you could you could pivot to a different product

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You could go target another consumer segment like what are your options? Like how do you weigh your options in that position?

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Exactly. I think this makes like a good segue to our next point about you know

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legacy companies going out and buying startups like should this deal even go through it really sets a

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precedent that you know these legacy companies they have all this money billions of dollars can they just

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Swallow up starts and no one can really compete anymore

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Like do we think legacy companies should be allowed to buy startups, you know up-and-coming high growth companies

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Like Adobe bought figma, but does this really kill innovation? Do we think or does it bolstered in fact by having these capital injections?

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Well, look I think at the end of the day companies are allowed to do whatever they want, right?

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Like that's part of the beauty of operating in a free market. I think to

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By the way, like with the regulation of the FTC to make sure that you're not completely running out of the competition

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I don't know to be completely honest. Like I don't know what the FTC specific regulations are

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You know if they let Facebook buy a whatsapp which has been heavily contested and many people think it was a horrible decision

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Especially given in the last two years all the controversy we've seen over social media gathering people's information

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I don't know. I assume like I assume the deal will go through otherwise they'll be like insane scrutiny

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But maybe there should be like more of a specific metric right like if your market share is over

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X amount like you should not be able to buy a company that is x amount close to what you do

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I don't know. I think at the end of the day like they're completely allowed to do it

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Someone made a smart decision on Adobe's behalf whether or not you think that they're like completely erasing the competition or they're harming

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Figma fans out there and like stalling the design industry. They made a smart business decision

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So I don't I mean do you feel that like there should be tighter regulations on it?

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No, I think the deal should be allowed to go through my only worry is you know, if I'm a startup

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I have a great idea

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How am I gonna compete against Figma now like you were already unable to compete against them?

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Like I said seventy percent seventy seven percent of the market now. They're backed by this billion dollar public corporation

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They could just do it

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You know Facebook does someone comes along or like take that does someone comes along with the great idea like be real did

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You know, you just make it internally now

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And you just put it on your own platform. It's like an extra feature

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So like I just wear that this could like pause innovation like you're saying in the design space

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Like obviously Figma will keep you know progressing and innovating themselves

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But I think the greatest innovation comes from the pressure of your competition

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And you can see what everyone else is doing and finding new ways to beat out competition

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But if you can just build something internally, how can you really compete against that?

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Yeah, it's there's a gradient of competition right like like minor or like mediary competition that helps thrive innovation like yours

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Or how spur innovation and you're talking about but when the competition owns a hundred percent of the market like it's not a company

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It's a brick wall. That's not competition. Um, my question for you though is

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What do you think canvas response is gonna be now?

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I don't know camera, you know, I don't you guys have seen they recently released a new work speed

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They're kind of competing with Google's works workshop in this suite in this case, but I don't know what they're gonna do

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I think they might you know pivot into their own niche a little bit be more for like the beginners

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They might say, you know with their templated versions rather than figmas for for the advanced

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So kind of catering towards people, you know that are beginning

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But I wonder how they can hold on to those people because once you can become more advanced UI UX design

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Like you eventually go to figment, but just because it's a more powerful program

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So what are your thoughts like how can canva really keep on to their customers?

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Look, I think canvas like quaking right now. Yeah, I think they're absolutely terrified if I'm if I'm the canvas co-founders

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I mean, you're probably in talks with the FTC trying to like lobby this not to go through

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Yeah, you're probably talks with execs at figma

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I think I think their biggest thing right now is canva attracts much more of a beginner market. I think

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You mentioned it before and I think you said figma like our logo straight from camera, right?

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And like what the fuck do we know and I think for figma like you have to be more of like an intermediate or experienced designer

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And so maybe that's a market that they're gonna really try and dive after like

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I have this background fear that now this adobe figma carnivore is going to double up canva

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Oh god, but then I don't then like how do you like where's your attention coming from?

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Like what is stopping someone, you know for building the skills on canva and not just like and then just leaving canva

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How do you incentivize people to stay? I don't know. I don't know the answer

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Yeah, I mean, I think that's something that we're gonna have to leave to discuss further in the next episode

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But I'm Crockett Callaway. I'm Sahil Seth and this is uninvested

