Hello! Hello! Hello! Welcome to episode 8 of We Don’t Talk About P-word. Today we are going to review this past election. Now that we have the 2022 mid-terms (mostly) in our rearview mirror, I want to discuss what happened. What are the repercussions of the results? What is the illusive “red wave?” Why was it expected? Why didn’t it happen? I will also provide some free advice to the parties (even though they will never listen). 

First, I want to warn you that this is going to get academic. I’ll be throwing a lot of statistics and political terms at you. I don’t want to confuse or overwhelm you, so I thought I should go over a few definitions before we dive in.

Political Wave: A wave election is when one party wins a substantial number of seats in the House and Senate. It commonly flips control of Congress. Waves can be blue (Democrats) or red (Republican). The last election most consider a wave was 2018. That year, the Democrats gained forty-one seats, shifting power in a blue wave. There is no definition of how many seats makes up a wave, but for my purposes I use a gain of twenty to thirty, plus.

Swing state: A swing state is a state divided evenly between parties. This means any given election could ‘swing’ either way.

Exit poll: An exit poll is when pollsters ask questions of voters as they “exit” their polling place. They do this in the more diverse areas and swing states. This gives them the most accurate data for their polls.

Now, let’s talk about the results.

In the House, we swapped a slim majority of one party for a slim majority of the other. It’s been under Democrat control since 2018 and will now flip to Republican. We are still waiting on the results of one race, but it looks to be leaning Republican. This will give them four votes more than the 218 needed for a majority. That means any bill brought to the house can lose no more than four Republicans for it to pass.

The Senate is still playing out. The Democrats will remain in control of the Senate, but by how much is still being decided. That decision will come down to Georgia. For a second election cycle, Georgia will host a runoff that determines power in the Senate. The People of Georgia choose between incumbent Raphael Warnock and challenger Herschel Walker. 

You may be asking yourself why this race matters, since control has already been decided. Currently, the Senate is an even 50-50 split. The Democrats and the Republicans have the exact same number of Senators. In this scenario, control is determined by the Vice President. When there is a tied vote on the floor, the Vice President’s role is to cast the deciding vote. Since our current Vice President is a Democrat, this gives control of the Senate to the Democrats.

However, this control is tenuous. It could be upended by a Governor’s appointment after a death or other retirement from the Senate. One Senator on either side could make or break a legislative agenda, as we saw this past term. The runoff election will in essence determine the power in the Senate.

It may seem like only one vote, but that one vote determines committee power. A 50-50 Senate split carries over to committee assignments as well. Since neither party has a natural majority, committees are evenly divided. This makes getting legislation out of committee much more of a slog than getting it passed on the floor. 

Most Senate committees have between 20 and 30 members. In a 50-50 Senate, a 20-member committee would have 10 Democrats and 10 Republicans. In a 51-49 Senate, that would be 11-9. This makes passing legislation out of committee easier. Yes, the winner in Georgia is only one more vote in the Senate. It does not determine control, but it determines how much power the party winning it wields.

So, to sum up: the House will swap to a slim Republican control, and the Senate will remain under the Democrats. For Democrats, losing the House was inevitable. The House is much more susceptible to gerrymandering, and as a result, is much more partisan. Senate races tend to be more representative of the population.

If you paid attention at all to the news leading up to the midterms, you know that this is not what was expected. Republican Kevin McCarthy predicted a gain in the House of 20-30 seats. The Senate was projected to flip. The President was supposed to spend the next two years fighting a hostile Congress. The expectation was a red wave would sweep the country.

But why did politicians and pundits alike predict a wave? Why didn’t one happen?
Since 2000, we have seen four wave elections: 2006, 2008, 2010, and 2018. Three of those resulted in power shifts. The 2008 election increased Democratic power by twenty-one seats. It was also a Presidential election year. The 2010 election was the most dramatic, with a red wave of 63 seats.

This is most typical in the House, as dramatic shifts in the Senate are very rare. We haven’t had a difference of twenty-plus Senators since the 95th Congress, from 1977-79. But some may not consider a wave complete without also gaining control of the Senate. Even if that control is only by one or two seats.

Since we have only seen four in the past twenty-two years why did so many expect a wave this year? The answer is that statistically, history made it seem inevitable. Since World War II, the party in power has lost an average of 28 seats in the midterms. When the current President’s approval rating was below 50%, that average jumps to 43. President Biden’s approval rating going into November was 40%. Also, the last four Democratic Presidents lost an average of 45 seats in their first midterms. 

A wave is an overwhelming repudiation of the party in power. They are more common in midterms because they are a rejection of the sitting President.  They are also often aggravated by complacency among voters in the President’s party.

So why was there no wave? 

We’ll get to that in a minute. First, I want to talk about misconceptions. Both parties are taking away the wrong lessons from this election. It is clear that neither understands what happened. 

I will start with what the Democrats are taking away from this election. Fortunately for them, they didn’t have very high expectations. They expected to lose control of both chambers, and the House by a huge margin. With that mindset, this was a huge win. Unfortunately, it made some Democrats believe they are more popular than they are.
The President believes that his minimal losses show embracement of his policies. He believes that he is more popular than the media and polls give him credit for. The progressive wing thinks the House loss shows that their agenda isn’t going far enough. As a result, progressive voters didn’t vote. The corporate wing knows they have done their job and maintained the status quo.

Most Democrats exist in a state of delusion. The Republicans, on the other hand, are living more in the realm of fantasy. 

The GOP sect blames 'candidate quality' for their loss in the Senate. (That’s McConnell’s code for too many MAGA backed candidates.) This is partially true; different candidates might have produced a different result. But this is only because Senate control rested on two or three swing states. The MAGA sect believes, much like the progressives, that their party didn’t go far enough. They would disagree on the direction, but it’s the same sentiment.  

Like I said, both parties are taking the wrong lessons from the 2022 election. So, what are the right lessons, you ask? We need to look at some analytics to understand what’s going on. 

The most recent data shows we have just under 214 million registered voters in the United States. (This number is the most recent as reported by states, and some have not reported since 2020.) That is roughly 83% of the voting age population. (It is important to note that it takes some time for dead voters to come out of these statistics. Morbid, I know, but necessary to mention.)

Let’s break it down even further.

According to Pew Research Center the largest chunk of registered voters (roughly 34%) identifies as independent. Democrats make up 33%, and 29% are registered as Republican. As I have said in the past, independents aren’t completely independent; most lean one way or the other. Accounting for the lean, 49% of registered voters vote Democrat and 44% Republican. The remaining voters vote third party or write in.
For some fun little pieces of trivia (for me anyway): Maine has the highest percent of registered voters at 82%. Wyoming is the lowest at 48%. Since I know I have at least one listener in Wyoming, you need to get out there and get people registered!
Since 1980, we have averaged a voter turnout of about 58% in Presidential elections. In midterm elections, we average under 41%. Both of those numbers help to explain why the People have lost their power in this country. If we want to wrestle power back from the Corporate Political Agenda, we must vote.

You may be asking why I went through the numbers like that. I know it is a bit academic, but it is important to understand the electoral makeup of the United States. After the 2020 election, some claimed that there was no way that many people voted, so it's rigged! In 2020, there were 168 million registered voters, and 155 million people voted.  Another argument was “There are more Republicans than Democrats, so how could we lose?” In 2020, there were 7 million more registered Democrats than Republicans. That doesn’t even consider independent voters.  

I know it is hard to hear for many Republicans, but Republicans are not in the majority in this country. I understand that can be upsetting for some but remember facts aren’t meant to make you feel good.

Unfortunately, it takes some time after an election to get voter data. This means we have to rely on data from previous elections and exit polls. These polls give us incredible insight into the makeup of those voting. This is also the data used to help call races on election night before all votes are fully counted. Polling, vote counts, and past results provide a good indicator of the outcome of races. 

Exit polls gather data like ethnicity and age of voters. They will include political affiliation and of course who they voted for. They may also capture other data, like household income, gender, and sexual orientation.  They might also ask about views on specific subjects such as the economy, crime, and many others. 

You would be surprised at how accurately you can predict a vote by knowing this information.

In this time of polarized politics, loyalty to party can be a huge decider. Customarily, it is almost a given when it comes to voting. But this rule was somewhat challenged this midterm election, for reasons I will get into in a minute. This makes understanding independents, the majority of registered voters, particularly important. This is where exit polls can be helpful, especially in states that have no party registration. 

You now know the electorate leans more toward Democrats than Republicans. Based on historical knowledge, midterm elections often punish the President’s party. Why didn’t we get that ‘red wave’ everyone predicted? Examining the exit polls brings the 2022 midterms into focus.

There are four specific contributing factors that I want to point out. 

The first I want to talk about is race. White, Latino, and Asian Americans vote in a roughly 60-40 split. White Americans favor Republicans, while Latino and Asian Americans favor Democrats. Black Americans overwhelmingly support Democrats by over 85%. White Americans are by far the largest constituency in the United States. Even with that being true, a minimal share of voters of color makes it difficult for Republicans to win. Race isn’t a huge advantage for Democrats, but it is a significant one. As the population grows and gets more diverse this gap will become wider and wider.

Next, I want to talk about the age of voters. Too many people want to dismiss young voters. This is understandable since they, on the whole, vote at a lower percentage than older voters. 

This is the reason politicians focus on issues facing seniors more so than young adults. If you want politicians to pay attention to you… VOTE!

The three youngest age brackets (ranging from 18-39) favor Democrats on average by 23 percent. The highest being 32%. What’s the takeaway? Millennials and Gen Z largely favor Democrats. The top three brackets are more evenly split. They favor Republicans by an average of only 11 percent. Like diversity, our aging population favors Democrats. As the population ages, Republican voters are being replaced by Democrat voters. In fact, the oldest bracket (65+) has the widest margin favoring Republicans at 12%. Again, morbid I know, but as that age bracket dies off so does the Republican chances of winning elections.

The other two factors I want to discuss are opinions on issues facing the nation. The first is the state of Democracy in the United States. 68% of those polled feel that Democracy is threatened. This is split almost evenly between Democrat and Republican voters. A more detailed breakdown shows that 36% feel it is very threatened. Another 32% feel it is somewhat threatened. Only 9% say it is secure, and 21% say it is somewhat secure. This was a bigger factor than Republicans want to admit.

The last factor I want to discuss is the issue of abortion. This was the most underrated and ignored issue concerning Americans by both parties. The last time abortion was an actual factor in politics was 1973. Neither party nor media pundits understood the impact it would have. In my opinion, this was probably one of the largest factors deciding this midterm. It drove voter registration. It drove turnout. It influenced younger Americans to vote.

Exit polls show 61% were dissatisfied or angry over the overturning of Roe versus Wade. 63% said that abortion should be legal in all or most cases. On the flip side, 36% said that it should be illegal in most or all cases. Supporters of abortion rights voted for Democrats. 

These numbers paint a picture of why the midterm did not go the way Republicans expected. Based on these statistics, history may come to show this less an anomaly and more the norm going forward. But that will be completely based on how engaged the People remain in the political process. Motivation to vote will always play the biggest role in who wins. 

Even with everything aggregated, the statistics listed are still not overwhelming. To understand the results, we still need to look at some less-tangible reasons. These are my own insights based on the results, exit polls, voter demographics, and personal observations.

My conclusion is that the results of this midterm come from disillusionment. The People are disillusioned with our political process. They are beginning to see exactly what is going on with our politics. They realize that neither party does anything for the People. They see one party enter elections with false promises and faked empathy. The other party doesn’t even bother to offer an agenda, and plan to win by demonizing the other side. The majority of Americans are beginning to understand that and are voting so things don’t get worse.

Say the Democrats were right. If the People liked their agenda, then they would have maintained or gained more control. If the Republicans had an agenda, they might have gained the wave they expected. Instead, we have a split Congress, as well as a President that will struggle to enact anymore of his agenda. The People are fed up. By splitting Congress, we are protected, and neither party can do anything insane. By splitting Congress, you force the necessity for bipartisan legislation. 

Senator McConnell was correct: candidate quality is a huge issue. The problem is that it isn’t only MAGA-backed candidates. No Republican offered any type of agenda. Not one offered an agenda for the People to vote on. All they gave us were platitudes and attacks on the President’s agenda. True, the President’s agenda may have its faults, but at least he has one. The Republicans offered nothing to vote for. 

Democrats, on the other hand, have an agenda. The problem is they want to force that agenda on everyone. They don’t want input. They don’t want to understand how that agenda affects people in different parts of the country. They don’t want bipartisan meddling. It is their way or no way, because they always think they are the smartest person in the room. By splitting Congress, the People ensure they must listen to input or get nothing done. 

The fear for democracy also played a bigger role than many expected. Americans are witnessing direct attacks on democracy around the country. Most (correctly) place that on the shoulders of the MAGA influence. The attacks on the legitimacy of elections are a MAGA talking point. The attack on the Capitol was conducted by the MAGA sect. This led to independents who would have normally voted Republican to vote Democrat. It caused many Republicans to split tickets or not vote at all. Looking at vote results, tickets were split throughout the country. A voter would vote for one party for governor while voting for the opposite party for Senate. The People are tired of the MAGA attack on democracy, and they voted against it.

Continuing my theme of making morbid comments, let’s talk about COVID-19. Death is the last intangible factor (at least until more research is done) I want to discuss. In the future, we may find that this was an even bigger factor than we currently realize. An early study of the pandemic has shown that red states had a 30% higher mortality rate than blue states. The exact reasons are being studied, but still unknown at this point. They may include fewer mask mandates, shorter lockdowns, and lower vaccination rates. No matter the reason, the fact is that more Republicans died than Democrats. This only further increased the voter divide. It will be some time before we fully understand these numbers. But this disproportionate death of Republican voters had an impact on this election. This loss will continue to be felt far into the future.

I promised some advice for the parties, so here it goes. Hopefully, at least some of them will listen.

If Republicans want to fix their election problems, they must do a few things. First, they must denounce any candidates that promote election illegitimacy. They must condemn anyone that attacks or supports the attack on our Democracy. This condemnation must be direct and without spin. Second, they must put forth an agenda. This agenda must promote the welfare and happiness of the People. Third, they must stop the demonization of Democrats. They must embrace them as peers. They must work with them to achieve bipartisan legislation for the People. Lastly, they must embrace the diverse nation we live in. They must respect the People that delegate their power to them.

Democrats must start listening to all their constituents, even the ones that don’t vote for them. They must stop forcing agendas upon the People without input from those People. They must learn to work within the system we have, and not the system they believe it should be. They must learn to work with Republicans. They must get out of the bubble of Washington DC and stop being condescending to the People.

Currently, we are witnessing a broken political system. That broken system is giving our government the appearance of ineffectiveness and inefficiency. Neither of those needs to be true. We are in a time of stagnation that cannot subside until we fix our political system. I don’t think that this midterm was as much an anomaly as others do. This may become the norm as the People do what they can to protect their rights and our nation.
The People have ensured a divided government that cannot hurt us.

The problem is that a government that cannot hurt us also cannot help us. As I discussed in episode six Bloodless Revolution, there is an answer. The only way to fix our broken political system is to force a reset. We must take the power of government back. We must force them to listen to the People. This is the only way to move past stagnation and inefficiency. This is the only way back to providing for the welfare and happiness of the People. We can only rely on ourselves. It is our responsibility.

We the People are the Power.