WEBVTT

00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:04.219
Welcome back. Take 10. Take 10. We're going quick

00:00:04.219 --> 00:00:06.839
this time. Yep. Lisa Wiles with the Mortgage

00:00:06.839 --> 00:00:09.640
Gallery. And Corey Freels with the same. Yep.

00:00:10.339 --> 00:00:13.300
Big market news. So really that's what this is

00:00:13.300 --> 00:00:15.619
going to be about because we want you to be the

00:00:15.619 --> 00:00:19.679
most informed and educated Realtor out there

00:00:19.679 --> 00:00:23.469
giving proper guidance. to all of your prospects

00:00:23.469 --> 00:00:25.870
and current clients. That's exactly right. Yeah.

00:00:26.230 --> 00:00:30.629
So yesterday was the 17th of September and a

00:00:30.629 --> 00:00:33.009
big day that we've been kind of looking at all

00:00:33.009 --> 00:00:35.289
year long where the Federal Reserve dropped the

00:00:35.289 --> 00:00:37.950
Fed Funds Rate. And if you look at the little

00:00:37.950 --> 00:00:40.590
chart, which is kind of a cool little candlesticky

00:00:40.590 --> 00:00:44.649
chart thing, probably has a name. Yep. Yep. If

00:00:44.649 --> 00:00:47.689
you look at that, really we knew this was going

00:00:47.689 --> 00:00:50.439
to happen back in August. That's right. And you

00:00:50.439 --> 00:00:53.859
can tell because the little candlestick, which

00:00:53.859 --> 00:00:56.700
is green, went way up. Yeah. Mortgage rates have

00:00:56.700 --> 00:00:59.780
improved since August, right? We've all seen

00:00:59.780 --> 00:01:01.880
that. And the reason for that is markets are

00:01:01.880 --> 00:01:05.480
forward -looking. So we literally trade odds.

00:01:05.859 --> 00:01:09.079
I don't. People do. Trade odds of a Fed rate

00:01:09.079 --> 00:01:12.819
cut. And there was a 100 % chance of a Fed rate

00:01:12.819 --> 00:01:16.900
cut yesterday. And it happened, right? So they

00:01:16.900 --> 00:01:19.890
cut 25 basis points off the Fed funds rate. All

00:01:19.890 --> 00:01:22.769
of the gains in mortgage rates came before that.

00:01:23.230 --> 00:01:25.930
And actually yesterday, mortgage rates went up

00:01:25.930 --> 00:01:27.829
a little, and we're seeing them follow through

00:01:27.829 --> 00:01:30.930
as well. Well, I think that is an interesting

00:01:30.930 --> 00:01:33.810
point because what you are going to see and hear

00:01:33.810 --> 00:01:36.849
in the news is that rates dropped. That's right.

00:01:36.950 --> 00:01:39.170
And what we are hearing from our clients is,

00:01:39.409 --> 00:01:43.629
hey, I heard rates drop. And so we are here to

00:01:43.629 --> 00:01:46.250
tell you that there are two different rates out

00:01:46.250 --> 00:01:48.469
there. That's right. There are mortgage rates

00:01:48.469 --> 00:01:51.469
and then there is the prime rate or Fed funds

00:01:51.469 --> 00:01:53.670
rate. Those are two separate things. That's right.

00:01:53.769 --> 00:01:57.769
Are they related? Sure. Sure. Are they the same?

00:01:58.030 --> 00:02:01.549
No. No. So here's why I believe they went up.

00:02:01.790 --> 00:02:06.230
There was forecasted to be three rate cuts in

00:02:06.230 --> 00:02:12.129
2026 in the most recent the most recent statement

00:02:12.129 --> 00:02:14.710
they released yesterday, they said only one cut

00:02:14.710 --> 00:02:19.689
all year next year. Which, in my mind, as I'm

00:02:19.689 --> 00:02:20.949
talking through it with people that I know, I'm

00:02:20.949 --> 00:02:23.689
like, that's pretty bold. I mean, you have Jerome

00:02:23.689 --> 00:02:25.449
Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve,

00:02:25.530 --> 00:02:29.349
his term ends in May of next year, so someone

00:02:29.349 --> 00:02:31.229
new is gonna be there. We know that the Trump

00:02:31.229 --> 00:02:33.789
administration will appoint that person and that

00:02:33.789 --> 00:02:35.770
they want lower rates, the Trump administration

00:02:35.770 --> 00:02:39.729
does. So to say that there's gonna be one rate

00:02:39.729 --> 00:02:43.830
cut, in 2026 is pretty bold. One that's 15 months

00:02:43.830 --> 00:02:46.569
away. Didn't you say there was only one person

00:02:46.569 --> 00:02:49.169
that voted against there just being one rate

00:02:49.169 --> 00:02:51.310
cut and it was the Trump appointed? That's correct.

00:02:51.530 --> 00:02:54.530
Yes. So everyone, um, there was, there's 12 voting

00:02:54.530 --> 00:02:57.830
members, 12 of them voted for a 25 basis point

00:02:57.830 --> 00:03:02.250
rate cut. Stephen Moran, the first day yesterday,

00:03:02.270 --> 00:03:05.530
welcome to the job. He voted for a 50 basis point

00:03:05.530 --> 00:03:07.610
rate. There we go. That's our boy. So that tells

00:03:07.610 --> 00:03:12.879
you, What could happen? I think that I I would

00:03:12.879 --> 00:03:16.500
put a big asterisk next to one ray cut in 2026

00:03:16.500 --> 00:03:19.360
because who knows it's a different world Yeah,

00:03:19.360 --> 00:03:22.740
it's a jump ball But all that to say you are

00:03:22.740 --> 00:03:24.340
smarter than everyone else because you're listening

00:03:24.340 --> 00:03:25.840
to this and mortgage rates have actually kicked

00:03:25.840 --> 00:03:29.219
up We saw this last year. Did we not it is literally

00:03:29.219 --> 00:03:32.699
that nightmare? Reinvented for this year today

00:03:32.699 --> 00:03:35.740
is the anniversary of the lowest rates of last

00:03:35.740 --> 00:03:40.139
year. It was today so We're seeing the same trend.

00:03:40.300 --> 00:03:42.139
Now rates are moving higher. But here's the thing.

00:03:42.439 --> 00:03:45.759
Hold on. Let's quantify higher. Fair. I don't

00:03:45.759 --> 00:03:49.180
think it's really fair to say that they are higher.

00:03:49.379 --> 00:03:52.259
But yes, the pricing did get worse. Yes. The

00:03:52.259 --> 00:03:57.400
mortgage bond market did get worse. And not every

00:03:57.400 --> 00:04:00.900
program is as volatile as the 30 -year fixed.

00:04:01.080 --> 00:04:03.280
So a lot of times, if somebody's looking at a

00:04:03.280 --> 00:04:07.199
20 or has the ability to do a 15 or a 20, that

00:04:07.199 --> 00:04:10.020
15 stays pretty solid. That's right. And sometimes

00:04:10.020 --> 00:04:12.199
the Gavi loans stay pretty solid on rates as

00:04:12.199 --> 00:04:14.740
well, even when the bond market gets worse. That's

00:04:14.740 --> 00:04:17.459
right. So you gotta know I think the big point

00:04:17.459 --> 00:04:19.759
though is for if you've got clients out there

00:04:19.759 --> 00:04:21.300
They're like all rates are dropping rates are

00:04:21.300 --> 00:04:23.420
dropping. They're done. They've already dropped.

00:04:23.439 --> 00:04:26.000
It's time Yeah, you've got the highest level

00:04:26.000 --> 00:04:28.959
of inventory since 2019. What an opportunity.

00:04:28.959 --> 00:04:33.420
Let's go take advantage of it So still low rates

00:04:33.420 --> 00:04:37.019
still low rates still high inventory Yes, does

00:04:37.019 --> 00:04:39.300
that not sound like a reason to get out of bed

00:04:39.300 --> 00:04:41.360
and go sell some houses? That's right. Let's

00:04:41.360 --> 00:04:45.639
go. I think it's on the up I love it. So if you

00:04:45.639 --> 00:04:49.199
have any questions for any of us, we can totally

00:04:49.199 --> 00:04:53.899
get into the next level geek stage on this. But

00:04:53.899 --> 00:04:59.639
just as a recap, yes, the bond market had already

00:04:59.639 --> 00:05:02.939
priced in this quarter point rate cut. It delivered

00:05:02.939 --> 00:05:07.699
exactly what we priced in. And the future did

00:05:07.699 --> 00:05:10.480
not look as bright as they thought, which has

00:05:10.480 --> 00:05:14.189
now negatively affected. the bond market, which

00:05:14.189 --> 00:05:17.529
will affect the rates. That's right. So, um,

00:05:17.769 --> 00:05:19.930
to Lisa's point, dramatic, no, I mean, we're

00:05:19.930 --> 00:05:23.310
still at like 6 .25 on the 30 year fixed on the

00:05:23.310 --> 00:05:25.709
average 30 year fix from optimal bloom. It's

00:05:25.709 --> 00:05:28.110
great. Still opportunities for a refi because

00:05:28.110 --> 00:05:31.230
on the 30 year fixed refi, we can give you a

00:05:31.230 --> 00:05:34.310
half a percent off for the first 12 payments

00:05:34.310 --> 00:05:37.670
and on purchase. That's right. So we're covering

00:05:37.670 --> 00:05:42.089
that lender paid. So maybe you think at 6. 2

00:05:42.089 --> 00:05:45.009
.5, you really wanted to be at 5 .75. Well guess

00:05:45.009 --> 00:05:47.970
what? It's your lucky day. We can do that for

00:05:47.970 --> 00:05:49.970
the first 12 payments while you sit there and

00:05:49.970 --> 00:05:53.509
wait for the next Federal Reserve guy to come

00:05:53.509 --> 00:05:56.829
in in May. That's right. That's right. Because

00:05:56.829 --> 00:05:59.189
you won't have a payment until December. That's

00:05:59.189 --> 00:06:02.050
right. If you close in October. Yeah. So let's

00:06:02.050 --> 00:06:04.209
go man lots of lots of reasons to get out there

00:06:04.209 --> 00:06:06.470
and sell houses right now guys and lots of reasons

00:06:06.470 --> 00:06:08.410
for buyers to buy We just have to get the message

00:06:08.410 --> 00:06:10.490
out. So we're here with you. Let us know how

00:06:10.490 --> 00:06:13.050
we can help get them off the fence Let's do it.

00:06:13.129 --> 00:06:15.509
All right, we work weekends Yeah, we do after

00:06:15.509 --> 00:06:18.189
hours at the mortgage gallery comm eight to eight

00:06:18.189 --> 00:06:20.730
eight eight eight days a week Yep, give us a

00:06:20.730 --> 00:06:21.029
show