Welcome back. Take 10. Take 10. We're going quick
this time. Yep. Lisa Wiles with the Mortgage
Gallery. And Corey Freels with the same. Yep.
Big market news. So really that's what this is
going to be about because we want you to be the
most informed and educated Realtor out there
giving proper guidance. to all of your prospects
and current clients. That's exactly right. Yeah.
So yesterday was the 17th of September and a
big day that we've been kind of looking at all
year long where the Federal Reserve dropped the
Fed Funds Rate. And if you look at the little
chart, which is kind of a cool little candlesticky
chart thing, probably has a name. Yep. Yep. If
you look at that, really we knew this was going
to happen back in August. That's right. And you
can tell because the little candlestick, which
is green, went way up. Yeah. Mortgage rates have
improved since August, right? We've all seen
that. And the reason for that is markets are
forward -looking. So we literally trade odds.
I don't. People do. Trade odds of a Fed rate
cut. And there was a 100 % chance of a Fed rate
cut yesterday. And it happened, right? So they
cut 25 basis points off the Fed funds rate. All
of the gains in mortgage rates came before that.
And actually yesterday, mortgage rates went up
a little, and we're seeing them follow through
as well. Well, I think that is an interesting
point because what you are going to see and hear
in the news is that rates dropped. That's right.
And what we are hearing from our clients is,
hey, I heard rates drop. And so we are here to
tell you that there are two different rates out
there. That's right. There are mortgage rates
and then there is the prime rate or Fed funds
rate. Those are two separate things. That's right.
Are they related? Sure. Sure. Are they the same?
No. No. So here's why I believe they went up.
There was forecasted to be three rate cuts in
2026 in the most recent the most recent statement
they released yesterday, they said only one cut
all year next year. Which, in my mind, as I'm
talking through it with people that I know, I'm
like, that's pretty bold. I mean, you have Jerome
Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve,
his term ends in May of next year, so someone
new is gonna be there. We know that the Trump
administration will appoint that person and that
they want lower rates, the Trump administration
does. So to say that there's gonna be one rate
cut, in 2026 is pretty bold. One that's 15 months
away. Didn't you say there was only one person
that voted against there just being one rate
cut and it was the Trump appointed? That's correct.
Yes. So everyone, um, there was, there's 12 voting
members, 12 of them voted for a 25 basis point
rate cut. Stephen Moran, the first day yesterday,
welcome to the job. He voted for a 50 basis point
rate. There we go. That's our boy. So that tells
you, What could happen? I think that I I would
put a big asterisk next to one ray cut in 2026
because who knows it's a different world Yeah,
it's a jump ball But all that to say you are
smarter than everyone else because you're listening
to this and mortgage rates have actually kicked
up We saw this last year. Did we not it is literally
that nightmare? Reinvented for this year today
is the anniversary of the lowest rates of last
year. It was today so We're seeing the same trend.
Now rates are moving higher. But here's the thing.
Hold on. Let's quantify higher. Fair. I don't
think it's really fair to say that they are higher.
But yes, the pricing did get worse. Yes. The
mortgage bond market did get worse. And not every
program is as volatile as the 30 -year fixed.
So a lot of times, if somebody's looking at a
20 or has the ability to do a 15 or a 20, that
15 stays pretty solid. That's right. And sometimes
the Gavi loans stay pretty solid on rates as
well, even when the bond market gets worse. That's
right. So you gotta know I think the big point
though is for if you've got clients out there
They're like all rates are dropping rates are
dropping. They're done. They've already dropped.
It's time Yeah, you've got the highest level
of inventory since 2019. What an opportunity.
Let's go take advantage of it So still low rates
still low rates still high inventory Yes, does
that not sound like a reason to get out of bed
and go sell some houses? That's right. Let's
go. I think it's on the up I love it. So if you
have any questions for any of us, we can totally
get into the next level geek stage on this. But
just as a recap, yes, the bond market had already
priced in this quarter point rate cut. It delivered
exactly what we priced in. And the future did
not look as bright as they thought, which has
now negatively affected. the bond market, which
will affect the rates. That's right. So, um,
to Lisa's point, dramatic, no, I mean, we're
still at like 6 .25 on the 30 year fixed on the
average 30 year fix from optimal bloom. It's
great. Still opportunities for a refi because
on the 30 year fixed refi, we can give you a
half a percent off for the first 12 payments
and on purchase. That's right. So we're covering
that lender paid. So maybe you think at 6. 2
.5, you really wanted to be at 5 .75. Well guess
what? It's your lucky day. We can do that for
the first 12 payments while you sit there and
wait for the next Federal Reserve guy to come
in in May. That's right. That's right. Because
you won't have a payment until December. That's
right. If you close in October. Yeah. So let's
go man lots of lots of reasons to get out there
and sell houses right now guys and lots of reasons
for buyers to buy We just have to get the message
out. So we're here with you. Let us know how
we can help get them off the fence Let's do it.
All right, we work weekends Yeah, we do after
hours at the mortgage gallery comm eight to eight
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