USA plays Iran today. It is also National Cream Pie Day.
National Cream Pie Day.
Gotta go get me a slice. Oh, lemon. My bad. Lemon cream pie.
You just said National Cream Pie Day.
National Cream Pie Day.
Yeah, we're gonna have to go ahead and just...
We'll just let that one ride.
Oh, no, that's so great. That's gotta stay.
That's so great.
MUSIC
Welcome, welcome, welcome back. Another episode of Value Nation.
Big shout out to Big Blue Nation on a huge victory last week.
Oh, yes.
Got to get this started off like that.
Anyways, moving on past that subject.
Go Big Blue.
Not even a fan, but just had to do it.
Love seeing Ohio State Blues.
Only because our boss is an Ohio State fan.
Sucker.
Big shout out, but welcome back. Welcome back, Value Nation.
I'm here at you again for some wonderful market news
that we're gonna talk about.
You know, Chiefs victory Tuesday.
What day is today? USA plays today.
USA plays Iran today.
It is also National Cream Pie Day.
National Cream...
Gotta go get me a slice. Oh, lemon. My bad. Lemon cream pie.
You just said National Cream Pie Day.
National Lemon Cream Pie Day.
Yeah, we're gonna have to go ahead and just...
We'll just let that one ride.
Oh, no, that's so great. That's gotta stay.
That's so great.
My intro sucked, but that just saved it.
It saved it.
Oh, my God. My intro sucked so bad.
Like, I know you don't pay attention to Chiefs news, but...
Oh, I do. Mahomes just had his little baby boy.
Yeah, the prodigy's been bored.
It's like the scene from The Lion King right now
where everybody's holding the baby up on Pride Rock.
He in three, baby.
Pride Rock.
Did you see that, like, super, like, studded out...
What's his middle name?
Bronze.
Bronze, yeah.
They got him, like, some diamond studded necklace
that the kid's never gonna be able to wear.
Probably say he's at least, like, he's never gonna be able to hold his head up.
It's the prodigy, man.
It's gonna take a minute.
It's the third edition, the third Patrick Mahomes.
Is it really?
Yeah, yeah, because he's a junior.
His dad was senior, and his dad was a relief pitcher in Major League Baseball.
Right.
And then he went football, so we'll see where the young prodigy goes.
But the reason I said the Chiefs' News is...
So, Willie Gay is one of our starting linebackers,
and he had, like, a domestic dispute last year,
and nothing ended up happening.
Like, he got in an argument with, like, baby mama or...
I don't think it was wife, but he got, like, super mad
and was like, get mad and broke a vacuum cleaner.
She called the cops, but...
Was it a gas-powered vacuum cleaner?
Ha-ha! Bring it in, bring it in!
Oh, my God.
I don't know if it was nice, but...
So, like, no files or anything as far as, like, he didn't touch her.
He didn't do... He took his anger out on the vacuum cleaner.
He got a four-game suspension for that.
What?
For breaking a Hoover vacuum?
And, you know, the cops getting involved, domestic dispute stuff,
but with everything that's going on with Sean Wasey,
he gets 11 games, and he got four.
Like, where's...
Oh, there's honestly... There's no rhyme or reason.
There really isn't, in the last...
If you look at it over the last couple years, yeah, it's pretty bad.
I mean, what's his name from Atlanta?
The wider receiver got suspended for the season for gambling on his team.
Calvin Ridley. Calvin Ridley.
I mean, we're talking about gambling.
We're not talking about the very questionable, you know, ear-muffet Jordan,
you know, questionable actions of Sean Watson and all his assuicents.
I mean, we'll look at P. Rose.
Oh, yeah. He's a...
He could talk on whole segments on that, I guess.
And then... Is that a Mike's Heart Limit?
Um, actually, no. And I don't know why I should be...
It's actually... Oh, why is it blurred out?
Copyright infringement.
Hey, you know what we got to do? We'll tag the rock.
You're like, hey, look at... Zoa, I'm here for you.
Oh, is that one of his million brains he has? Yeah.
Dude, it's so good.
So we could bust into market news, like, what's today's...
What's today's mortgage rate? 7.5%.
Oh, God. All right. Let me see.
What is today's mortgage rate?
We should just bust in with what the 30-day fixed is every episode to start off.
It is... That sounds like a terrible idea.
People are going to cry over that.
I'm kidding. I never know how to look it up,
because, like, I go to Bankrate, I go to other places,
but, you know, like, they're all different.
Every lender's a little different. Like, what is the actual...
What do you use to... Do you look it up? You actually...
Yeah, I'm looking it up right now.
Usually. We'll see.
Today's 30-year fixed...
30-year fixed rate mortgage rate today.
Ba-ba-ba-ba-ba-ba.
More like dun-dun-dun-dun.
Today's magic number is...
6.81, dropping finally below 7%.
Look, I mean, it's great,
and it also really hurts the potential home buyers, obviously.
But... And but why?
Because the buying power...
I mean, you made a good point.
Like, the...
Is it a good time to buy? Sure, there's not a lot of competition,
not a lot of people are really wanting to take on that mortgage payment.
That, you know, because it's more, right? It's a lot more.
Those rates are so high that it decreased the buying power for a lot of people.
Yeah, because also rates fluctuate based on your credit score as well, right?
Like, so that 6.8 points...
Yeah, down payment, all those kinds of things come into play, right?
740 and over is where you're going to get that premium rate.
And then there's another window below that.
The rate changes some points and so forth.
So, yeah, it does affect.
But I mean, in the grand scheme of things right now, it is...
If you go out and look, homes aren't...
You know, just a year ago, homes were going for 30,000 over list price,
$40,000 over list price.
So we're missing out on homes unless you had that much money in pocket
to pay over appraisal and which helped drive up the home values.
Now, things are kind of flattening out
and you're able to buy a home at list price
and even get seller concessions where you can get closing costs paid for.
Yes, you're paying more per month on your mortgage
because your interest rate is two points higher than what it was,
two and a half, three points higher than what it was.
I guess in some cases, four. It was down to two.
Yeah, no, because they were down below...
Yeah, down to two.
Yeah, if you have the pristine credit score, you can get something.
But so, yeah, it is a difference of a couple hundred dollars a month.
But would you rather pay $40,000 out of your pocket right now,
the second you're buying the house,
or save that 40 grand upfront,
an additional $200 a month on your mortgage payment
and then rates will eventually correct themselves a little bit
and when they get back down to the fours and the fives, you refinance
and then it's done. You saved yourself that.
You spent $40,000.
Yes, and then if you got the cash, some cash,
and you can support that higher payment, right?
Because there was a great example that's out there right now
and they probably just use it for round numbers,
but like a $400,000 house, right?
30-year fixed.
What was it? What you could get it for two years ago versus today
because of the rate, just rate alone, right?
Yeah.
All things equal, like down payment, PMI, everything like that.
They were talking about it being at $1,000 more today per month
for a $400,000 out.
Because of the interest rate.
Because of the interest rate versus last year, right?
Man, a grand, an extra grand, that changes the game for a lot of people.
It does, but you could still go with,
if we're basing on the same thing, so say that house was listed at $400,000.
Right now, you could buy that house for $400,000.
If not, maybe slightly below and get
5% help on your close cost.
So you could get maybe $1,250 to help you, $1,500 to help you.
And there's a lot of the first time home buyer credits
and a lot of those other things that can come into play, right?
To help lessen the blow.
Man, that's a...
But then think though, a year ago, you're trying to buy
that same $400,000 house when the market was insane
and everybody was trying to buy,
you may end up having to pay $440,000 for that $400,000 house
because you're going to have to pay $40,000 out of pocket,
over listing price, over appraised value to buy that house.
So then how many months is it going to take?
So that's three and a half years or so of that extra thousand to equal
the $40,000 you had to pay upfront to move that house in addition.
Well, I think we're going to find that there's going to be a lot of people
in a real tricky situation, right?
Because of the last couple of years and the way home values went.
And who are they going to point the finger at?
I mean, like obviously us and appraisers
because we were the ones that handed over the appraisals at the values.
But to your point, there's a lot of those guys,
a lot of those borrowers that came out of pocket and even more.
Like one great example I have from last year was in,
I think it was Marlton, New Jersey.
It was a very like average like home, not like a starter home,
but I think it was like, I don't know,
2500 square feet, 3000 square feet.
There wasn't anything really spectacular,
but this family really, really wanted to be there.
And they really wanted to be in this school district.
Yeah, a home speaks to you.
Sometimes there's that feeling of when you walk into a home
and it kind of speaks to you.
Yeah. I mean, I think we've all had that experience once or twice, right?
And whether you can really pull the trigger on it or not is a different story.
But these people, they got the appraisal done,
they came in like just over the list price.
And then they got into a bidding war.
And then these guys paid $150,000 cash over asking price.
Stop it.
The LO came back to me like a week later.
He goes, you're not going to believe this.
He goes, they got into a bidding war and this guy pulled out 150k cash.
Stop it.
And I'm like, and then he wanted to come back.
He's like, he's planning to come back and maybe refi.
Like, hey, we're going to end up in a whole world of problems.
You need to tell your borrower that he's, A, insane.
And B, he's going to need to sit on this for a minute to see what happens.
Because even the appraiser, like we had, we engaged the appraiser again,
just say, hey, hypothetically.
The appraiser doesn't want to touch.
He's like, no, I'm good.
Yeah, well, it's like, there's no, there's no worldly way I could hit this appraised value
billion whatsoever.
Yeah.
And like, to be fair, that did happen a lot.
Like, everybody was aware.
150k was the biggest number I saw in the last two years, right?
That's a big one.
You're right.
Like, you're hitting it like 30, maybe 30 and 50, I think was, we saw a lot of.
It was common.
Like, that's something that used to be uncommon, but that became common in certain markets.
Obviously, it's all based on percentages, you know.
Yeah, like around me, like the Northern Virginia market.
Forward of 500,000 houses.
You wouldn't bat an eye seeing 40,000.
Like, let's take now that game changes at 200,000 houses.
Obviously, it's all relative to the starting point, right?
Portland area, you were seeing stuff going crazy high.
Well, so yeah, there's some stats out there about, specifically about the West Coast
and the values and how they skyrocketed, right?
Over the last couple of years, some major Metro areas, you know,
whether it's Cali, the Northwest was another one.
Utah was another one.
And then obviously, Texas, because they always have, there's always a surge in like Austin,
for instance.
Yeah.
Those markets, there was like top 10 markets.
They were all West Coast that increased the most year over year in like this median sales price.
You know, upwards of like somewhere like 15% higher than pre-COVID.
Like it was insane, insane.
And now they're starting to, now with the rates as they are and people not wanting to sell their homes,
like we're starting to see the correction, right?
So this is where we're getting at.
Values are going to have to come back down and normalize or, you know, the median sales price is going to normalize.
Normalize.
I think our old normal of what we're used to is never going to come back as far as home value.
I agree with you.
Like, I feel like a lot of people, like if you've been in the housing game for a while or owned your house for 10 plus years,
and like what you come to think your neighborhood is worth,
like the kind of range of homes in your neighborhood,
that value that's stuck in your head from five, 10 years ago, I think it's long gone.
I don't think it ever went down that far.
Well, no, and there's a lot of emotion in it too, when it's yours, you know?
Yeah. Yeah.
Everybody always thinks their home is worth more than what it is.
It's your home, right?
Yeah.
But I'm just talking about, I just still can't get, for my example, like say I live in nothing special,
just, you know, a track home.
In my mind, the values in this neighborhood, what they are compared to like what is still stuck in my brain,
to what I think these homes are worth, I still can't make sense of it.
I don't think it's ever going to drop back down to where my brain locks them in at.
So I'll give you an example.
I pulled up some data.
Oh, data time!
We actually have, is this our first facts?
Fun facts, fun facts, my valuation?
Fun facts, valuation.
Hashtag.
Okay. So March of 2020 to June of 2022.
Take a wild guess as to how much the median home price increased.
So from the very beginning of COVID.
Start of COVID to this summer.
To this summer. Oh my gosh.
Like a realistic guess or a for shock value guess?
Realistic guess, I'd say like 18% or so.
18%?
Yeah.
That's pretty conservative, my friend.
So.
25%.
25%. Okay. You're still short.
What?
Yeah. Yeah. This is going to blow your mind.
All right. 47% increase.
47% across the country.
Now that's, that's median across the country, right?
So we're talking like 280k up to like 413, 414, something like that.
200k up to five.
That's nuts.
So now.
Oh no, 47%.
47, yeah.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
So we're talking about the corrections, right?
So looking at MBA stats from last month, from September to October, the end of October.
And we're going to have the new ones, I guess, for November, like later this week or next week.
It's already dropped.
The median's already dropped down to 379 across the country.
So we're starting at 413.
Now we're down to 379.
Yeah. So yeah, so we're getting there.
Like there's some, there's some of the chief economists, you know, the guys that are way
smarter than us.
They were just because they pay attention to the econ class.
Econ class is horrible.
This is like Mike Moore.
He's just that econ guy.
Oh my gosh.
He just, he can go.
Okay.
He can go.
He could go for it.
Yeah. So like some of them are super crazy in their, in their projections.
Talking about like maybe a 15 to 20% correction across the country.
That's huge.
That's a big correction, but it kind of goes back to my earlier point.
We're never going to get back down to that baseline zero.
Let me get to it went up 47, 48% and corrects 20%.
I mean, it's still up 20 plus percent from what it was.
The big market crash.
I think we've said this multiple times on this show, but the big market crash is never going
to happen.
There's no, there's, there's enough things in place to, to prevent that.
Right.
Hopefully that's been the plan.
That's why we're here.
Hopefully.
Fingers crossed.
But yeah, I mean, I would think, I would think that maybe a five to 10%
correction is probably more realistic personally.
But again, these guys, you know, they make way more money than us or so that you would
think.
I mean, they're out there spitting numbers, doing pie charts, pivot tables.
You know how long it takes me to do a pivot table?
Really?
Like I just don't use them that often.
Yeah.
I've gotten more and more.
I love Excel.
Excel is amazing.
Oh, Excel is amazing.
I was an accounting major, so I had to get, oh, so you're part of the problem.
Yeah.
I had to get very comfortable with Excel.
Yeah.
Fun fact.
Did you finish with accounting major?
You finished with an accounting major?
Yeah, I'm a BSA.
Okay.
And I went to school long enough to where I didn't even need the bachelor's program
to sit for the CPA.
I had so many college credit hours.
Six years.
Because I did two years of community college, didn't really know what I wanted to do.
Then went to UMKC to go get the, let's go Roos, kangaroos, baby.
And kind of started as a business admin and took a couple of the basic level accounting
classes, talked to a professor, kind of tried mentoring me.
They're like, hey, you seem to get this much more focused career than just business admin.
And so then I switched over to that.
And so then that was extremely difficult and probably one of the worst decisions I've ever
made in my life.
It was so hard.
Like my brain does not work.
And I am a numbers guy.
I am a numbers guy. Accounting is not numbers focused.
Accounting is general principles, guidelines, and how you use those differently.
It's not numbers.
I mean, yes, numbers are involved, but it's more rules, guidelines, how you apply this,
where you could apply that.
There's different ways to do it.
It's just whichever one you choose.
You have to be consistent with what method of accounting you're using.
It was not for me.
It did not work for my brain.
It was a little more abstract than I thought it would be.
I'm an engineer's brain.
I should have followed in dad's footsteps and gone engineering.
What kind of engineer?
He was a civil engineer.
He was on bulk material and handling.
He did moving coal and coal fire power plants.
He worked a lot internationally, obviously, because the US hates coal.
But yeah, he would design the system on getting the coal from,
like if it was from the barge or ship, how to get it from the water to the power plant,
or if it was coming out of a mine, how to transport it from the mine to the power plant.
Oh, there you go.
No, he did some pretty cool stuff.
He got to travel the world, didn't he?
That's pretty cool.
Yeah, no, he didn't put coal.
It's pretty cool.
He would spend a little bit of time in Mother Russia?
No, surprisingly.
The ones that come to mind, like Indonesia, Philippines, Hong Kong, South Africa,
those were like the big jobs I remember, because some jobs would be gone for two and a half years.
The Philippines?
Wait, did you say two and a half years?
Yeah, Ricky.
Did you get to go visit?
Man, this is still a sore subject.
My father had sole custody of me and my sisters.
Visitation for the mom.
When I was like eight or nine, so my sisters would have been like 11, 12.
He got offered a gig in Thailand.
It was going to be a minimum six-month job, move there.
He had it all set up and he was going to take my sisters and I to Thailand, live there,
six months minimum, probably was going to end up being a year, go to international school.
You know how cool of an opportunity and experience that would have been?
Oh, yeah.
I was like in sixth grade, but it got shot down.
I think my mom stepped in and went and moored up and was like, no,
that would have been so freaking cool.
Come on, mom.
I know, man.
So I've never done really any international traveling.
I'm boring, man.
Most I've done is the British Virgin Islands.
That's it for me.
I mean, I've gotten to use the passport once, British Virgin Islands.
Those stamps, man.
I know.
I haven't even gone to Mexico.
Like everybody's gone to Mexico.
Everybody's gone to Mexico.
You got to go to the VR.
We did VR last year.
I heard the DR is pretty fun.
It is fun.
Yeah, but I can't really afford any of it right now.
But you know what people can afford right now if they're taking advantage of the equity
in their house is they can afford to do some home renovations to keep that house
from climbing down just not quite as far as the percentage is dropping.
Right.
Let's talk about
who decorated your tree because that does not look like you.
I don't think you did that.
Yeah.
No.
So the ribbon.
Yeah, I did the ribbon.
So Grace, my daughter always she does the ornaments.
Like that's her job.
And this is actually a new tree this year.
I finally got a pretty good tree.
Oh my gosh.
I finally got it.
You didn't cut it down.
Man, I had.
Yeah, no, I'm sorry.
But I have strung the lights every year for like the past six years.
And like I've seen it.
I've seen it.
I've strung the lights every year for like the past six years and like I was like, screw
this. I'm getting a pre-lay.
So yeah, I did.
I put the tree together.
I did the ribbon and then she comes after the ribbons on and does it.
Does the other ornaments.
Look at you.
The Martha Stewart touch.
I'm a see you got the Patty Mahomes right here, man.
Yeah.
Is that a is that the Chuck E.
Cheese Mouse next to that is a terrible rendition of Casey Wolf.
She's got.
Yeah, this is this is that's the Chuck E.
Cheese Mouse.
This is a I think Grace made this actually.
My daughter, I think it does kind of look like a Chuck E.
Cheese guy.
OK, so Grace, if you're listening, I know you are because you love your dad.
It's a great job.
Yeah, you did great.
It was years ago.
She managed got braces today.
Big day.
Yeah.
Grace Braceface.
Don't do that.
What kind of dad are you?
Come on.
So mouthful.
The Eddars she she got she got a braces on this morning.
Can you see this?
I need to get some braces.
That looks great.
Now you did that yourself.
It's all blurry.
Yeah, I'm going to I'll text it to you.
It's pretty fabulous.
I'm not going to lie.
It's like a nine footer.
Oh, nice.
Got in there with saw.
Cut it down.
Let London cut it down.
Oh, yeah, you go natural.
I forgot about that.
All natural.
Yep.
It's an experience.
So she got to cut it down.
She got in there with the saw herself.
Yeah.
The last couple of years.
Yeah, it's been fun.
We've been doing it since she was like she was four.
So, you know, seven, six, seven years.
So it's a running tradition now.
I'd like to go natural.
There's something to be said.
The smell.
It just it is it is cool.
We used to when I was a kid, we always did natural.
My dad always took his table to the tree.
But I'd like to go nine foot, but the stupid ceiling has a slant.
Like this is the best spot in my little living room here for this tree.
Like everywhere else would look stupid.
And like the ceiling slants down the corner.
And so like seven and a half foot's the limit.
I can't go.
I can't go above seven and a half.
If I want to put a topper on there.
I got a little angel up there.
Oh, I got to have the topper.
Yeah, yeah, you got to.
So I should do this.
You should blow out that roof.
Blow out that roof.
Put a put a nice skylight in there.
Go Clark Griswold on.
Go Clark Griswold with it.
Man, such a good movie.
He's such he's my hero.
Have you seen have you seen the new Ryan Reynolds deal on Netflix?
Oh, yeah, that's good.
Or on Apple or.
I think it's Apple Plus.
Good afternoon.
There's probably a hidden fee there, too.
Don't worry.
Good afternoon.
I'll get you.
That's my that's my new greeting to people.
It's good afternoon.
Just good afternoon.
Yeah, you'll have to watch it to realize.
It's I thought it didn't come out yet.
Oh, it came out like yet this week, didn't it?
Great.
Yeah, great.
And I watched it last week, so it's out.
Oh, last week.
OK, it's a musical, which I did not see that coming.
Will Ferrell.
It's a musical and will Ferrell ride rails.
But I guess like they say that back in the day,
in the days of original Scrooge,
good afternoon meant the equivalent to, you know, FU.
It's so we're at the Cheesecake tailgating.
This is great.
So Grace is like a goody two shoes.
She is scared to cuss.
She is scared to like say bad words like she just doesn't do it,
which is a good thing, right?
She is like a super innocent kid.
And so it's funny when like we're all getting together
and she comes to the Chiefs game with us.
We're tailgating like we're like Grace, say, say, say,
and like you can see like every bone in her body,
like thanks all the courage to spit it out.
I was talking trash to her during our game of bags.
We were playing bags.
So like I kept talking trash and she was playing like crap.
And she just looks at me and goes, Dad, good afternoon.
It's like, oh my God, I can't believe you remember that.
It came out of nowhere.
It was so good.
It was classic.
But she said it was like such anger.
Oh, yeah.
She did not mean good afternoon.
I'll tell you that.
I'm talking about some innocence.
I took one into the night before Thanksgiving.
We went to the Caps game and they played Philly in the night.
We played Philly in D.C.
And it's like a thing that like me and her have.
We're going to try and go to more games together,
like try to find something that me and her can relate to
on like on the same level, because in another couple of years,
it's going to be her and my wife.
They're going to be doing their thing.
And I'm going to need one thing.
I'll take the caps.
So she's in it, right?
You want to talk about innocence, sweet.
Like we're sitting there.
She goes, she's like, Dad, this is like our time, right?
Like, yeah, yeah.
Why? What's up?
And she's like, well, OK, if I use I use the word damn.
She's whispering in a crowd of thirty five thousand people.
I'm like, yeah, I mean, well, we're here.
This will be the safe space.
Sure. Go ahead.
Have at it.
And she didn't abuse it.
She waited, waited the right time.
And caps loud goals.
She looks out a little damn.
Yeah, she's like, damn.
It's like she stayed under her breath still.
Right. And then Ovechkin put some guy into the boards.
The guy like fell limp.
She's oh, damn.
Yes.
You see my 10 year old get so like into it and use it completely correct the entire time.
It was great.
So she used it like she's like five or 10 times.
And then I think she was like she was out of her system.
But meanwhile, like all the Philly fans that were sitting around us were yelling every
possible obscenity because they ended up losing an OT.
It was a cool game.
I never seen it over time.
I came, but we go like sudden death and play like three on three.
Yeah, it's like three or four and four and then.
Well, three is four on four with the goalie.
But yeah, it's sudden death.
You have five minutes.
And then that doesn't happen.
It goes to it's like playing.
It's like playing like.
When Gretzky hockey, one of the greatest games ever.
Oh, yeah.
Wayne Gretzky hockey on in 64 was three on three.
That game is hands down one of the best video games.
And you could light people up on that game.
Oh, so it was fun.
And that's what they did.
Like it was super cool.
They scored the game winner right in front of us.
The place went crazy.
And I mean, it was a lot.
Yeah, it was a lot of fun.
So now she's like, she's like, Dad, can we get like season tickets or how does it work?
I'm like, oh, yeah.
I mean, you feel my pain.
Like, you know how that like.
You guys just want you guys won a Super Bowl recently.
So your tickets are probably higher anyways.
Yeah, there was a premium the year after, but then like you always have to pay a premium
when you first sign up.
Like I had only one seat.
Like when we were won the Super Bowl, I just I just had a seat for myself.
And so then selfish for two seasons.
Well, it's seen if I could afford it.
Oh, yeah.
Honestly, like we've just seen how it worked and like, you know, my schedule and stuff.
And so then kind of got a groove of it.
I added the second seat.
I had to pay a premium on that seat because it was a course after we won the Super Bowl.
And so then the next year, it drops down significantly into like the tier of the section here.
And so it goes from there.
I think how most organizations do it.
So is that it, man?
Are we done?
We have anything else really to talk about today?
I mean, I think that's it.
We're getting the the red light, the white flags being raised by Jordan.
So the directors give us.
Give me you guys.
Guys are going too long.
You guys suck.
Cut it down.
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