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Welcome back to the rate of change with York Wealth Management.

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As advisors to some of the wealthiest families in the country, the Ready Change is a podcast

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designed to help you in the pursuit of building long-term wealth through the insights of some

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of the brightest minds in asset management.

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I'm your host Murdoch Gaddi and in today's broadcast of speaking with Dan Winter and

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Rowan Grant, founders and portfolio managers at Arbor Capital.

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Arbor Capital is an investment firm focused on venture capital and growth equity investing

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within the SaaS and tech sector.

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They work with family offices and high-net-wealth individuals who are seeking to invest long-term

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patient capital in high-growth private businesses.

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Dan and Rowan share their journeys from entrepreneurs to family offices and to the establishment

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of the first fund in 2016, which at the time recording has achieved a gross investment

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rate of return of above 30% and multiple undeployed capital of more than 4x.

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For me, I enjoyed hearing how their journey has led to the evolution and the launch of

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the new fund, how it's shaped their new structure, their investment philosophy, and what they're

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looking for when investing and targeting private growth businesses.

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If you're about to take off for the Australia Day long weekend or you're enjoying a couple

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more weeks of fun in the sun, I hope you've had a great refreshing break and you're looking

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forward to pursuing a prosperous new year with the team here at the rate of change.

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With that being said, I hope you've enjoyed this conversation as much as I did, so sit

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back, relax, and enjoy it.

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Dan Winter and Rowan Grant, welcome to the Rate of Change with York Wealth Management.

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Thanks for having us, Murdoch.

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Hey, Murdoch, good to be here.

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Why don't we pick things off by telling us a little bit about yourselves and how you

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both got into financial markets.

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Dan, why don't you start things off?

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Sure.

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Maybe I'll give you a bit of my background.

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So I guess I studied international relations business at Bonn University on the Gold Coast

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and during my time studying, I guess I realized pretty quickly that I had a passion for technology

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and technology businesses.

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So I actually teamed up with a friend of mine and we started to build our own technology

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software.

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It was a really interesting experience, taught me a lot about tech and business and ultimately

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decided not to continue on with that venture.

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And actually went off to pursue management consulting to try and broaden my perspective

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and learn a bit more about big business and sort of how technology strategy, finance all

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came together.

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So quickly after graduating university, I went to management consultant for a firm called

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Accenture.

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I guess technically I was in technology and strategy consulting and did that for a few

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years where I learned exactly what I sort of had intended to get out of that, a lot

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about how big business operates, ASX listed companies and so on.

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And toward the sort of end of a couple of years there, I went back to the drawing board

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and I thought, what is the rest of my career?

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And for me, it felt like the right thing to do was to look at investing in technology,

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either becoming a founder again or to make a move into investment.

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So basically at the end of that journey, I joined a family office and worked in a small

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family office that was doing pre-seed and seed stage technology investing.

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At the same time, I met Rowan and we actually started our first fund together.

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So perhaps I'll pass to Rowan, he can tell you a bit about that and his background.

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Thanks, Dan.

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Yeah, Murdoch, I'm a recovering chartered accountant for my sins.

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Started life in business advisory and taxation.

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Didn't like it much.

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It was good like fundamental knowledge base to have and reading and understanding financial

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statements but couldn't see myself becoming a partner of the firm.

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Did a complete 180 and started a tech startup in the music space, like a consumer facing

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startup with no idea and no skills on how to do that, but learnt a lot.

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And that was sort of my entree to the tech space.

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And around the same time, I was getting mentored by CFO of a family office.

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And after that startup failed, joined that office.

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And that was sort of my then entree into private market investing.

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Stayed there for a while, really, really enjoyed it.

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And then had this really hard decision on whether to stick around and keep learning

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and expanding my network or go back down the entrepreneurial path and start a fund.

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And yeah, met Dan Winter around that time and decided, couldn't sort of put out the

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fire of that internal sort of optimism of an entrepreneur and decided to leave the family

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office and start a venture fund.

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It's pretty interesting the journey we all have to get to where we are today.

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It's not exactly a straight line, is it?

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No, it almost sounds like a smooth narrative, but it never is.

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The reason why I find that so interesting, you're saying Dan?

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Yeah, I was going to say definitely not in the case of myself.

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I thought I was going to end up working in the United Nations at one point and couldn't

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have ended.

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United Nations.

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Yeah, I know this is a podcast about managed finance and investing.

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But I need to know the story of United Nations in what sense?

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No, no, it was more an ambition, perhaps a far-fetched ambition.

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But at university, that was my interest.

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So I wanted to work in politics or international affairs in some capacity and pretty quickly

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realized that wasn't where I was going to land when my technology interest crept in.

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So I couldn't be further from it now.

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Don't worry, we all did it.

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And university, I want to become an architect.

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I was actually in the architecture faculty.

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You should have met half my mates.

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That were the Da Vinci's, the Michelangelo's.

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And I realized pretty quick, smart, that I needed my cab license because I was nowhere

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near as good.

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But yeah, how interesting.

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The other thing which we were discussing as well is what you guys do essentially, to my

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understanding, is you service the clientele which you service are high-end family offices.

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And do you guys want to talk a bit about, as you said with your upbringing, you guys

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have actually worked for family offices.

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So would you say that mentoring, working within these communities has given you essentially

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the understanding of what wealthy families look for in particular investments?

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Is that, and then essentially the managed fund is the vehicle about trying to put the

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two together?

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Do you want to talk a bit about that?

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Is that correct or have I got that completely wrong?

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I think you've done a good job of summarizing that actually.

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So both Rowan and I come from family office background in some capacity.

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Perhaps I'll talk a little bit about my experience there and then Rowan, you can talk about yours

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as well because despite having a lot of overlap in our careers, we've got very different experiences

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in terms of family office exposure.

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But for me, it was very eye-opening because I joined a family office that was looking

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at the earliest stage investing.

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So we're talking like napkin stage concept ideation stage companies where you're dealing

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with founders that have ideas and nothing else.

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And it's a very uncertain environment, teaches you a lot about picking founders and what

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to look for in people, I guess, more so than opportunities, but also how important it is

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to have well thought out business ideas that are backed up by sustainable business models.

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So I guess that part of the family office world, my early stage exposure is sort of

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partially what led Rowan and I to building Arbor Capital, which is where we are today.

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But then in addition to your point, like understanding how to manage money, learning sort of what's

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important from a LP standpoint and limited partner standpoint, the backer of the fund

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is very crucial to really getting a good grasp of what to think about when you're deploying

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capital, the types of risks, the potential for returns and how you're going to generate

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liquidity and so on.

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So in my experience, it was super, I guess, relevant and contributed largely to where

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I've landed today.

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Yeah, I think it was a natural progression for us to target family offices as LPs given

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we had worked previously in investing teams at family offices.

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I think family offices are like eclectic beasts.

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I think it probably doesn't look this way at the outside, but they're highly emotional

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organizations when you think about it.

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I was very surprised to understand and see firsthand, despite a solid investment strategy

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and process written down, how often decisions or investments would be made based on emotion

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and understanding that.

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And that's natural.

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That's life.

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It's not necessarily a good or a bad thing.

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But having that insight and seeing asset allocation exercises at a family office and then all

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the way through to the deployment and security selection operations, I think it gave us a

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good insight to talk the same language and to, when we're crafting our investment strategy,

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we're using that well for family offices.

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So it was a natural progression based on what we'd seen in our prior roles.

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So that progression led to Arbor Capital.

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So you have two funds, right?

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You got the original and then you've got the new fund.

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So why don't we, for Alice's segment that a bit, why don't we discuss the first fund,

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how the family office style learning, you figured out what you're looking for and then

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use that particular vehicle to invest, how the returns have been.

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Do you want to give an overview of that first fund and then we'll stick into the second?

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Sure.

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So the first fund was a typical closed end limited partnership focused on early stage

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technology investing.

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So seed and series A primarily had a very specific mandate.

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And it was fundamentally an extension of what Dan and I had been doing the previous few

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years at the family office.

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So it was a very defined mandate.

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We would look at B2B software as a service marketplace style business models across a

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sort of generalist approach from an industry perspective.

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And that fund is, what was that, 2015 vintage, I believe.

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So it's coming up on seven or eight years now.

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It's a 10 year fund.

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So it's hitting the tail end.

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We've just started to have exits come through in the last few years.

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I think our IRR, we've just had a couple of markdowns in this environment.

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So it's dropped from, I think, what was 44% to around 30, low 30s.

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MOIC is 5.7 from memory.

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It's a highly concentrated, high conviction fund.

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We typically took board seats and was as involved as we could be with the companies given time

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constraints.

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What were the returns?

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What's been the returns for that fund?

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Yes, MOIC was 5.7 IRRs sitting low 30s at the minute.

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And how's the alignment and the fees work?

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We took a pretty standard approach to fees.

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We just did two and 20.

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We didn't want to, well, we're pretty new, right?

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So Dan and I were both in our 20s when we started that fund, which I think in some respects

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was too young, but we were risk takers.

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We were lucky to have experienced private market investing at family offices.

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So there's a lot we didn't know, but in some sense, glad that we did that early because

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we've still got a good chunk of our careers left and we've learned so much.

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So it was a rolling that learning into this current fund as well.

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So the businesses which you look, so which we invested in with that original fund, what

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was the criteria like in order, what were you looking for?

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Do you want to take that Dan?

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Yeah, I'll take that one.

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So back then we had a very specific mandate for early stage, well, SaaS technology businesses.

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So quite a constrained mandate from the sense of not deploying broadly across categories,

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but looking heavily at companies that were at that expansion growth stage.

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So Series A and software oriented business models.

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So pretty much every company that's in the portfolio that we had there is a software

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based business model of some kind and has exposure across many different industries.

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So I think we have one that's sort of fintech exposed.

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We had one that was AI exposed, one that was logistics and one that was education.

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So as Ron said, very highly concentrated portfolio there with exposure to software business models.

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And then so these businesses, how did you find them?

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When initially I think given that Ron and I both came from the family office backing,

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we had fairly strong access to deal flow from many channels.

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So you kind of when you're working in the industry for a while, you sort of build up

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a natural direct inbound of founders that are looking to just have conversations with

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venture investors who have been around the industry for a while, who actually have seen

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many different opportunities.

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So we had a large amount of just cold inbound come to us personally.

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And I think second to that, the typical ways of getting out and meeting founders at events

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and promoting the brand through content pieces would always generate additional opportunities

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as well.

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Probably the most common strategy, I guess, for founders to reach out, at least in terms

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of some of the higher quality opportunities that we would have come across the decks were

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related to founder introductions.

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So these are founders that we'd already invested in or worked with in the past where they speak

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about us as their investor to other founders in the ecosystem.

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And those founders would then make the introduction and be like, okay, Dan, Ron, do you want

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to come chat to this particular company?

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That's always been a really strong source of deal flow.

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So interesting.

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And the other thing which we discussed many times before is when you were doing deals,

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some of these transactions, you would take actually quite a large percentage of the business.

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So and we discussed it with these quite like working with these founders led businesses.

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So you know, how much equity stake would you look to take in these businesses?

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And how would you go about helping improve those businesses?

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You know, to your benefit and their benefit.

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When we were doing our portfolio construction for the first fund, we had a target of around

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10% ownership.

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Now that that varied quite a lot.

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And it depends on entry, entry stage two.

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So we did a few pre seed investments where we own 20 or 25% of the business.

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And then in some series A investments, we were owning 5%.

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So your entry point can dictate that a lot.

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But I mean, we won't go too deep into it, because it's a big topic, but the venture

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returns and the power or dynamic and then you know, how big your portfolio is sort of

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dictates, if you're going to have a any given opportunity, have the potential to return

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the fund, you need to own, you know, a decent chunk of that.

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So the theory goes, so we didn't have any hard and fast limits.

232
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But I'd say around the end of the day, it was around a 10% ownership.

233
00:17:22,320 --> 00:17:26,200
The reason why I was asking that is, you know, we've seen the past couple of couple of years

234
00:17:26,200 --> 00:17:30,880
that this particular space take off, but if I'm understanding correctly, the majority

235
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of the investments you made were essentially before, you know, that bell curve went incredibly

236
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north.

237
00:17:37,560 --> 00:17:42,440
So it was that was that luck that you managed to set your feet at the right time?

238
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Or do we look into valuations?

239
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And the deals were attractive at that particular time.

240
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And then when I go, hi, we just don't want to touch this or you know, what was your mindset?

241
00:17:53,240 --> 00:17:54,240
Good question.

242
00:17:54,240 --> 00:17:56,160
It's a bit of both.

243
00:17:56,160 --> 00:18:03,080
I've always Dan and I've been talking a lot about how the venture fund is started really

244
00:18:03,080 --> 00:18:07,480
based on the timing of the principal's career, right?

245
00:18:07,480 --> 00:18:09,940
As opposed to where you are in a market cycle.

246
00:18:09,940 --> 00:18:15,840
And I think probably for better or for worse, and probably to be honest, for worse, the

247
00:18:15,840 --> 00:18:22,440
LPs in funds are exposed to venture funds separate to the market cycle.

248
00:18:22,440 --> 00:18:29,960
And not saying that you can predict that, but like we were, you know, mid to late 20s

249
00:18:29,960 --> 00:18:37,880
and venture was just sort of, you know, coming out of GFC pretty, pretty quiet in Australia.

250
00:18:37,880 --> 00:18:43,340
And we started at a fortuitous time when we just had then six, six years of just up and

251
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to the right in valuations.

252
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So that made us feel all very smart and special.

253
00:18:47,720 --> 00:18:51,400
But if we're honest, there's a good chunk of luck in that.

254
00:18:51,400 --> 00:19:00,480
On the analysis and decision making side, we are very price conscious around valuations.

255
00:19:00,480 --> 00:19:07,560
So that means in the last three years, we sat on our hands a good chunk of the time.

256
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We couldn't make sense of a lot of the valuations based on company growth rates and how big

257
00:19:16,080 --> 00:19:18,520
we thought any given opportunity could be.

258
00:19:18,520 --> 00:19:22,400
And comparing that to the valuation being proposed, we just couldn't see how we would

259
00:19:22,400 --> 00:19:26,400
hit our target IRR, which is 25%.

260
00:19:26,400 --> 00:19:32,120
And so we do a lot of rigorous modeling and analysis around that.

261
00:19:32,120 --> 00:19:35,440
And it meant that every time we were doing our valuation analysis, not every time, but

262
00:19:35,440 --> 00:19:41,080
like a good chunk of the time, we would either just bow out and say, guys, we can't, we don't

263
00:19:41,080 --> 00:19:46,000
believe we can make the returns given this price, or we would submit a term sheet based

264
00:19:46,000 --> 00:19:52,840
on the price that we were comfortable with, and we would get outbid by a large margin.

265
00:19:52,840 --> 00:20:00,200
And I mean, like in many instances up to 300%, there would be a fintech opportunity that

266
00:20:00,200 --> 00:20:05,320
we'd put at a 10 mil pre money at the seed stage and someone would come and pay 30.

267
00:20:05,320 --> 00:20:09,960
And that shakes you a bit because you start to go, well, are we missing something?

268
00:20:09,960 --> 00:20:14,840
Silly question, but I have to ask, like, did you ever look back at those cases when that

269
00:20:14,840 --> 00:20:18,240
occurred and go, is this company still alive?

270
00:20:18,240 --> 00:20:21,040
That's a very good question.

271
00:20:21,040 --> 00:20:23,240
Rowan and I speak about this all the time.

272
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Because to Rowan's point, sometimes we'd issue a term sheet and we'd be like, why have the

273
00:20:28,800 --> 00:20:30,320
founders gone quiet?

274
00:20:30,320 --> 00:20:31,520
Something's happening in the background here.

275
00:20:31,520 --> 00:20:34,320
We can't quite figure out what's going on.

276
00:20:34,320 --> 00:20:37,280
And then all of a sudden they'd come back and they'd be like, look, like we are actually

277
00:20:37,280 --> 00:20:42,600
accepting this term sheet that's three times higher valuation than what you guys have proposed.

278
00:20:42,600 --> 00:20:45,160
And we'd sit back and we'd just be like, this is ridiculous.

279
00:20:45,160 --> 00:20:48,400
I can't believe someone's willing to pay that amount.

280
00:20:48,400 --> 00:20:52,920
And it's interesting to your question, Murdoch, because on reflection, we actually do keep

281
00:20:52,920 --> 00:20:56,200
a strong relationship with all of the founders that we get to term sheet stage.

282
00:20:56,200 --> 00:21:02,400
And we often have looped back and tried to reconnect and explore opportunities to see

283
00:21:02,400 --> 00:21:07,560
if there's another opportunity to invest because presumably the companies have grown and become

284
00:21:07,560 --> 00:21:11,640
stronger, better companies and the market fundamentals have shifted in a way now where

285
00:21:11,640 --> 00:21:13,800
perhaps those valuations are more realistic.

286
00:21:13,800 --> 00:21:18,200
So actually early in the year, we started to do some of those reach outs to learn a

287
00:21:18,200 --> 00:21:21,360
bit about how wrong we were or if we were correct.

288
00:21:21,360 --> 00:21:22,920
And we had some interesting findings.

289
00:21:22,920 --> 00:21:28,240
Some of those businesses were raising at flat rounds despite being two or three times larger

290
00:21:28,240 --> 00:21:31,320
than what they were when we were looking at them initially.

291
00:21:31,320 --> 00:21:37,440
So heaps of valuation, multiple compression happened between, I guess, when we were outbid

292
00:21:37,440 --> 00:21:39,880
and when we'd revisited those opportunities.

293
00:21:39,880 --> 00:21:41,720
So it is fascinating.

294
00:21:41,720 --> 00:21:44,000
But I think Ron mentioned it earlier.

295
00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:51,360
I think the cycle of venture can be, I guess, a good thing working in the favor of everyone

296
00:21:51,360 --> 00:21:53,000
or it can be a bad thing.

297
00:21:53,000 --> 00:21:58,160
And I think at that particular point in time, three or four years ago, valuations were just

298
00:21:58,160 --> 00:21:59,160
out of control.

299
00:21:59,160 --> 00:22:06,340
So there was so much room for correction and multiple contraction, which I think has definitely

300
00:22:06,340 --> 00:22:07,800
started to unfold now.

301
00:22:07,800 --> 00:22:12,360
At least what we've seen in the market is that valuations are looking much more reasonable

302
00:22:12,360 --> 00:22:17,960
and a lot of these companies are actually still alive and succeeding.

303
00:22:17,960 --> 00:22:21,800
However, the valuations now look a lot better.

304
00:22:21,800 --> 00:22:24,320
Yeah, it's always good to talk.

305
00:22:24,320 --> 00:22:28,720
Don't use television shows when you're talking finance, but I always love that show, Silicon

306
00:22:28,720 --> 00:22:29,720
Valley, right?

307
00:22:29,720 --> 00:22:30,720
Hilarious.

308
00:22:30,720 --> 00:22:35,840
And there was a particular scene at a party when the guy's throwing a massive party and

309
00:22:35,840 --> 00:22:40,080
it's like, what's this for, we've raised half a billion dollars with this than the other.

310
00:22:40,080 --> 00:22:43,560
And then two years later, he sees a guy in a bar and he's just like, mate, what are you

311
00:22:43,560 --> 00:22:44,560
doing here?

312
00:22:44,560 --> 00:22:47,360
It's like 11 o'clock on a Monday.

313
00:22:47,360 --> 00:22:51,600
And the guy turns away and he goes, I'll give you one bit of advice.

314
00:22:51,600 --> 00:22:54,520
No one ever said, you know, you can take less money.

315
00:22:54,520 --> 00:22:55,520
Yeah.

316
00:22:55,520 --> 00:23:01,120
And everyone just looks at each other and just goes, wait, you can take less?

317
00:23:01,120 --> 00:23:03,920
He goes, yeah, no one ever said you could take less.

318
00:23:03,920 --> 00:23:07,960
Because what happens is the more you take, the more expectations grow, the more you have

319
00:23:07,960 --> 00:23:09,880
to grow, the faster you have to grow.

320
00:23:09,880 --> 00:23:14,040
And it's fine if you hit the first hurdle, everyone's happy, but you know, then it's

321
00:23:14,040 --> 00:23:15,560
a bigger hurdle.

322
00:23:15,560 --> 00:23:17,880
So then he's practically hammered.

323
00:23:17,880 --> 00:23:21,720
He's like, best advice I can give you since you're doing a deal, you can take less, take

324
00:23:21,720 --> 00:23:22,720
less.

325
00:23:22,720 --> 00:23:25,920
I thought that was the best bit of television advice I've ever heard.

326
00:23:25,920 --> 00:23:29,480
But no one ever discusses that because everyone gets paid from doing all the deals and it

327
00:23:29,480 --> 00:23:30,480
all gets exciting.

328
00:23:30,480 --> 00:23:31,480
Yeah.

329
00:23:31,480 --> 00:23:32,480
It's funny.

330
00:23:32,480 --> 00:23:34,840
But no, good, good digression.

331
00:23:34,840 --> 00:23:38,560
Big, best series of best tech oriented series of all time.

332
00:23:38,560 --> 00:23:41,920
I think that's so legendary.

333
00:23:41,920 --> 00:23:46,240
But it's a good point that you make because it's actually, I mean, some of the shifts

334
00:23:46,240 --> 00:23:51,320
that we've seen in the market over the last 12 months, really positive in that sense,

335
00:23:51,320 --> 00:23:55,480
starting to see founders think a lot more about, you know, how do we do more with the

336
00:23:55,480 --> 00:23:58,280
money that we have or that we're going to raise?

337
00:23:58,280 --> 00:24:02,040
They're a lot more conservative with their projections, with their thinking around capital

338
00:24:02,040 --> 00:24:04,200
injection coming into the company.

339
00:24:04,200 --> 00:24:10,600
So that's had, I think there's very positive flow on effects from a lot of the macro environment,

340
00:24:10,600 --> 00:24:16,120
I guess, complexities that we've had over the last 12 to 24 months.

341
00:24:16,120 --> 00:24:21,080
And it's really forcing founders and investors to go back to the table and rethink some of

342
00:24:21,080 --> 00:24:24,720
these growth models and some of these business models.

343
00:24:24,720 --> 00:24:27,520
And, you know, how do you actually sustain a business long term?

344
00:24:27,520 --> 00:24:30,680
How do you make a business that doesn't need to raise capital?

345
00:24:30,680 --> 00:24:34,480
It's good to see that conversation coming back into the picture.

346
00:24:34,480 --> 00:24:38,080
And definitely something that Rowan and I have thought about a lot with the new fund

347
00:24:38,080 --> 00:24:43,640
is looking at those opportunities to sort of ride the wave of that corrected logic in

348
00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:45,040
the market, which is good.

349
00:24:45,040 --> 00:24:49,240
Well, this is a great segue after everything into the second front, right?

350
00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:53,120
We've learned, we've made money, we've prospered, things have gone wrong.

351
00:24:53,120 --> 00:24:56,040
So I would love to hear what is the new fund?

352
00:24:56,040 --> 00:24:57,720
Why has it been started now?

353
00:24:57,720 --> 00:24:59,280
I think we're discussing as well.

354
00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:03,160
There's what three different tiers of investments.

355
00:25:03,160 --> 00:25:05,240
You look at all the thinking of the investments.

356
00:25:05,240 --> 00:25:09,040
So if you want to give everyone maybe let's begin with how is it structured?

357
00:25:09,040 --> 00:25:10,560
Why is it structured that way?

358
00:25:10,560 --> 00:25:11,600
What are you looking for?

359
00:25:11,600 --> 00:25:13,880
And then how you tier the investments?

360
00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:16,520
Maybe I'll do the high level and then pass to Rowan.

361
00:25:16,520 --> 00:25:20,200
I think this one will have to split because there's a lot to unpack here.

362
00:25:20,200 --> 00:25:25,440
So at a very high level, Arbor Capital, our new fund, is an investment firm that's focused

363
00:25:25,440 --> 00:25:29,840
on venture capital and growth equity investing in technology companies globally.

364
00:25:29,840 --> 00:25:35,000
I guess the tagline for the fund or the tagline that Rowan and I pitch when we talk about

365
00:25:35,000 --> 00:25:39,080
the fund to founders is that we provide patient capital for high growth private technology

366
00:25:39,080 --> 00:25:40,080
companies.

367
00:25:40,080 --> 00:25:45,680
And there's a lot to unpack about how we got to that point and I guess how we came to the

368
00:25:45,680 --> 00:25:46,880
foundations of the fund.

369
00:25:46,880 --> 00:25:52,280
But initially a lot of our thinking stemmed from the fact that Rowan and I were both very

370
00:25:52,280 --> 00:25:58,240
passionate long-term thinkers and we wanted to align that personal mode of operations

371
00:25:58,240 --> 00:26:03,240
with I guess our strong conviction that patient capital being deployed into private technology

372
00:26:03,240 --> 00:26:06,880
opportunities could deliver superior returns long-term.

373
00:26:06,880 --> 00:26:12,200
And so those concepts of patience, long-term thinking, long-term investing, compounding

374
00:26:12,200 --> 00:26:17,980
capital and private high growth technology companies were sort of key to the foundations

375
00:26:17,980 --> 00:26:22,880
and establishment of Arbor Capital, which is the current fund that we're working on

376
00:26:22,880 --> 00:26:25,200
and raising.

377
00:26:25,200 --> 00:26:32,600
And I think there were so many learnings that we had from our first fund that led to some

378
00:26:32,600 --> 00:26:40,600
of the more technical elements of the development that perhaps Rowan can touch on just around

379
00:26:40,600 --> 00:26:45,240
how we structured it, why we structured it that way and how we landed on the strategy

380
00:26:45,240 --> 00:26:46,240
that we have today.

381
00:26:46,240 --> 00:26:53,760
Yeah, so those principles of long-term thinking and patience manifested into two material

382
00:26:53,760 --> 00:26:59,920
changes to I guess the investment strategy and the structure comparing the last fund

383
00:26:59,920 --> 00:27:02,000
to this one.

384
00:27:02,000 --> 00:27:07,360
On the investment strategy side, it meant that we broadened our scope a little bit to

385
00:27:07,360 --> 00:27:12,240
not just pure play venture opportunities, but private companies that were still high

386
00:27:12,240 --> 00:27:21,440
growth, but they weren't on that venture trajectory of orders of magnitude, like multiple returns

387
00:27:21,440 --> 00:27:28,400
and that a company that could be 20% or 30% KGAR growth that might be bootstrapped is

388
00:27:28,400 --> 00:27:33,040
still an attractive opportunity, but falls outside the mandate of a lot of those traditional

389
00:27:33,040 --> 00:27:34,040
funds.

390
00:27:34,040 --> 00:27:39,200
And we were seeing a lot of these opportunities and were restricted in our prior mandate from

391
00:27:39,200 --> 00:27:40,240
taking a look at them.

392
00:27:40,240 --> 00:27:45,480
So they'd come across the table, Dan and I'd be like, fuck, this is an interesting business.

393
00:27:45,480 --> 00:27:49,720
Wish we could dig deeper and take a look, but it's just not in the mandate.

394
00:27:49,720 --> 00:27:51,320
So we'd take a pass.

395
00:27:51,320 --> 00:27:55,000
And we'd always spoken like one day we'd love to be able to include these types of

396
00:27:55,000 --> 00:28:01,280
bootstrapped and non-venture scale businesses in our strategy.

397
00:28:01,280 --> 00:28:03,160
So this fund was an opportunity to do that.

398
00:28:03,160 --> 00:28:07,480
So we now look at businesses that have been bootstrapped.

399
00:28:07,480 --> 00:28:12,800
We now look at secondary transactions, whether that's allowing founders to de-risk their

400
00:28:12,800 --> 00:28:20,440
personal lives and take some money off the table or buying off other existing investors

401
00:28:20,440 --> 00:28:22,360
and sort of everything between that spectrum.

402
00:28:22,360 --> 00:28:24,000
So we've broadened that scope.

403
00:28:24,000 --> 00:28:29,640
It's still high growth private technology companies, but not just C series A venture

404
00:28:29,640 --> 00:28:32,400
scale opportunities.

405
00:28:32,400 --> 00:28:35,400
So that's the investment strategy and how it's different.

406
00:28:35,400 --> 00:28:39,880
The other quite meaningful change was to the fund structure itself.

407
00:28:39,880 --> 00:28:48,800
We did a lot of reflection and deep thinking around why funds tend to be these 10 year

408
00:28:48,800 --> 00:28:51,320
life closed end vehicles.

409
00:28:51,320 --> 00:28:53,120
What's driving that fund life?

410
00:28:53,120 --> 00:28:58,160
Summer seven, summer 10 plus two, these closed end structures.

411
00:28:58,160 --> 00:29:02,880
And Dan and I had had a series of conversations with probably older, more experienced investors

412
00:29:02,880 --> 00:29:07,360
around liquidity and time horizons and things like that.

413
00:29:07,360 --> 00:29:14,120
Some principle that we'd taken away was that having an arbitrary end life to your fund

414
00:29:14,120 --> 00:29:20,160
may not marry up with the natural exit point of any given company in your portfolio.

415
00:29:20,160 --> 00:29:26,800
And I think there's some funds in market today that have 2012 vintage that are probably coming

416
00:29:26,800 --> 00:29:30,360
to wind up stage now.

417
00:29:30,360 --> 00:29:37,880
And I know some of their portfolio companies aren't ready to either list or trade sale

418
00:29:37,880 --> 00:29:42,960
and having to have conversations with their LPs about extending the fund or doing secondary

419
00:29:42,960 --> 00:29:43,960
transactions.

420
00:29:43,960 --> 00:29:50,520
And we just thought we would prefer to hold a position in our fund until it's the right

421
00:29:50,520 --> 00:29:51,520
time to sell.

422
00:29:51,520 --> 00:29:52,520
That could be three years.

423
00:29:52,520 --> 00:29:55,200
It could be to be extreme 30.

424
00:29:55,200 --> 00:30:01,480
If you hold a successful company that's compounding capital at high rates, we would like to hold

425
00:30:01,480 --> 00:30:04,000
that company until it's the right time to sell.

426
00:30:04,000 --> 00:30:09,720
So we ended up shifting away from closed end fund structure to effectively an evergreen

427
00:30:09,720 --> 00:30:15,720
or permanent capital structure where we can open the books periodically to take more capital

428
00:30:15,720 --> 00:30:16,720
in.

429
00:30:16,720 --> 00:30:22,120
That's also probably a topic for another day, but it provides us the ability to give liquidity

430
00:30:22,120 --> 00:30:24,320
to our investors periodically.

431
00:30:24,320 --> 00:30:29,880
But probably most importantly, it allows us to make the decision of when to liquidate

432
00:30:29,880 --> 00:30:35,320
a position at the right time for us and the company, not when the fund ends in two years

433
00:30:35,320 --> 00:30:37,360
time, for example.

434
00:30:37,360 --> 00:30:43,720
Yeah, that's quite frustrating and challenging because as you said, the first fund, what,

435
00:30:43,720 --> 00:30:47,000
it's seven years in, you literally have three years and then what's going to happen to the

436
00:30:47,000 --> 00:30:48,000
businesses?

437
00:30:48,000 --> 00:30:51,960
Or can you potentially structure in a way if those businesses are going quite well,

438
00:30:51,960 --> 00:30:55,760
your second fund can essentially acquire the interest in the other fund or does everything

439
00:30:55,760 --> 00:30:58,200
kind of have to be dispersed?

440
00:30:58,200 --> 00:31:02,700
Yeah, there's a few things that happen at the end of a fund life.

441
00:31:02,700 --> 00:31:07,880
One is that you baked in your LPA, your limited partner agreement, you have an option to extend.

442
00:31:07,880 --> 00:31:12,640
So 10 plus two plus two is reasonably common.

443
00:31:12,640 --> 00:31:15,520
You can sell your position on the secondary market.

444
00:31:15,520 --> 00:31:17,240
You can roll it into another fund.

445
00:31:17,240 --> 00:31:24,480
And yeah, there's a plethora of options, but I think what didn't make sense to us was just

446
00:31:24,480 --> 00:31:28,760
having this arbitrary end date, like maybe 10 years is a good amount, maybe it's not,

447
00:31:28,760 --> 00:31:31,360
but wouldn't you rather hold the company until the right time?

448
00:31:31,360 --> 00:31:33,400
It just sounds clunky and unnecessary.

449
00:31:33,400 --> 00:31:36,680
It sounds like the people that are making money out of that are the lawyers and the

450
00:31:36,680 --> 00:31:37,680
accountants.

451
00:31:37,680 --> 00:31:40,000
Yeah, true.

452
00:31:40,000 --> 00:31:45,400
We very much just thought about it as like, the best time to exit a particular holding

453
00:31:45,400 --> 00:31:51,520
or a particular company will vary so much company to company and it has no bearing or

454
00:31:51,520 --> 00:31:59,400
no relationship to how old our fund is and also how much we need liquidity in some sense.

455
00:31:59,400 --> 00:32:05,320
The best time to exit a company will be when the best time to exit that particular company

456
00:32:05,320 --> 00:32:09,140
is, and no other factor should determine that.

457
00:32:09,140 --> 00:32:12,600
So when we were thinking about fund design, to Roland's point, it was critical for us

458
00:32:12,600 --> 00:32:22,320
that the structure allowed for us to hold positions as long as we need to generate optimal

459
00:32:22,320 --> 00:32:23,320
returns.

460
00:32:23,320 --> 00:32:28,640
And, you know, I say to generate optimal returns because we might also realize that an asset

461
00:32:28,640 --> 00:32:33,200
is no longer going to grow at the rate that we need it to and then that is the time to

462
00:32:33,200 --> 00:32:35,760
exit that specific position.

463
00:32:35,760 --> 00:32:42,560
So it's not necessarily that all assets would be held forever, but more that we do thoroughly

464
00:32:42,560 --> 00:32:46,120
our analysis to work out when the right time was to exit a particular holding.

465
00:32:46,120 --> 00:32:49,400
Well, it makes our lives a lot easier, especially when we're speaking with clients.

466
00:32:49,400 --> 00:32:52,800
One of the main topics we found in the offices and wealthy families these days is how do

467
00:32:52,800 --> 00:32:57,360
you transition wealth, the transfer, the intergenerational transfer.

468
00:32:57,360 --> 00:33:01,880
And then what you learn and you understand is that these founders, wouldn't you agree,

469
00:33:01,880 --> 00:33:05,160
these founders, they're the ones that have the vision, build something up, but it's a

470
00:33:05,160 --> 00:33:10,560
lot to take for the second, you know, generational or third generation to be forced into being,

471
00:33:10,560 --> 00:33:14,480
you know, I don't know, a baker, candle smith maker when essentially under there a musician,

472
00:33:14,480 --> 00:33:15,480
right?

473
00:33:15,480 --> 00:33:16,480
You know, what do they know?

474
00:33:16,480 --> 00:33:21,760
But, you know, in saying that as well, they shouldn't be robbed of potentially a great

475
00:33:21,760 --> 00:33:28,320
business that's generating a 30% cashflow every single year because it's a great product.

476
00:33:28,320 --> 00:33:31,680
Yes, they don't want to have a bar of it, but you know, that cashflow is quite important

477
00:33:31,680 --> 00:33:33,040
and it's doing the right thing.

478
00:33:33,040 --> 00:33:35,320
So here's a question.

479
00:33:35,320 --> 00:33:42,080
Do you think potentially the closed ended funds is a main reason why there's such a,

480
00:33:42,080 --> 00:33:50,040
you know, push for transactions in these businesses or do you think if the main structure was

481
00:33:50,040 --> 00:33:53,560
like similar to the structure, which is setting up for the second fund, there wouldn't be

482
00:33:53,560 --> 00:33:59,680
this need to look for exits as much?

483
00:33:59,680 --> 00:34:02,600
I'm just thinking behavioral psychology.

484
00:34:02,600 --> 00:34:05,640
And the reason why I'm going with this is kind of like when the American system kicked

485
00:34:05,640 --> 00:34:10,360
things off, as in they'll go in and you'll get a three year contract, got the contract

486
00:34:10,360 --> 00:34:16,480
hit, so got the company hit all their incentive schemes get paid, but they just cannibalize

487
00:34:16,480 --> 00:34:20,600
the entire next three, five years of the in order to achieve everything today.

488
00:34:20,600 --> 00:34:24,400
And then, you know, it looks great on the stocks right now, but then the next 10 years,

489
00:34:24,400 --> 00:34:25,720
the life of the company is horrendous.

490
00:34:25,720 --> 00:34:30,280
Do you think there's a changing culture now?

491
00:34:30,280 --> 00:34:31,560
I don't know.

492
00:34:31,560 --> 00:34:32,560
That's a good question.

493
00:34:32,560 --> 00:34:37,680
Like I know there's a few funds that have breakout companies like Canva in there at

494
00:34:37,680 --> 00:34:38,680
the moment.

495
00:34:38,680 --> 00:34:44,000
And I think from what I understand, those LPs have been happy to extend the fund lives

496
00:34:44,000 --> 00:34:49,040
because you know, there will be, there's been a lot of paper value creation on Canva and

497
00:34:49,040 --> 00:34:51,800
that will materialize into liquidity at some point.

498
00:34:51,800 --> 00:34:55,760
So I think if you're sitting there as an LP in one of those funds that holds Canva, you're

499
00:34:55,760 --> 00:34:58,360
probably happy to wait.

500
00:34:58,360 --> 00:35:04,760
On the flip side, if you've got a company that's not performing so well, there's value

501
00:35:04,760 --> 00:35:09,400
there, but the line of sight to liquidity is less clear.

502
00:35:09,400 --> 00:35:12,760
You might be sitting there going, well, we can, what are we holding on for?

503
00:35:12,760 --> 00:35:17,840
Like, are we actually, is our capital tied up here to produce more returns or is it tied

504
00:35:17,840 --> 00:35:20,920
up here on a, on a hope that things will get better?

505
00:35:20,920 --> 00:35:23,280
So yeah, it's a good question.

506
00:35:23,280 --> 00:35:24,280
I'm not sure.

507
00:35:24,280 --> 00:35:32,400
So from memory, the average life cycle of day zero to IPO of a company is 10 years in

508
00:35:32,400 --> 00:35:33,480
Australia, I think.

509
00:35:33,480 --> 00:35:38,360
So maybe it's something to do with, you know, on average liquidity should happen in 10 years

510
00:35:38,360 --> 00:35:39,360
in a company.

511
00:35:39,360 --> 00:35:43,200
And maybe that's where the sort of 10 year fund life came from, but I'm not sure.

512
00:35:43,200 --> 00:35:48,880
Well, we'll dig into that, you know, another day, but let's get to the fun stuff.

513
00:35:48,880 --> 00:35:51,840
What are, what opportunities are you seeing in the market?

514
00:35:51,840 --> 00:35:56,080
And why I'm really interested in this, God has been a roller coaster, you know, free

515
00:35:56,080 --> 00:36:00,160
money being poured, poured in on the macro, you know, during COVID times, then they go,

516
00:36:00,160 --> 00:36:01,320
oh, it's too much.

517
00:36:01,320 --> 00:36:07,800
You know, let's pour water over this fire, starve everyone, everyone's pivoting.

518
00:36:07,800 --> 00:36:12,280
And then we're in this interesting time where, I don't know, the conversations we're having

519
00:36:12,280 --> 00:36:16,000
is there's a lot of companies out there that want money, need money.

520
00:36:16,000 --> 00:36:20,320
And it's a great, potentially hypothetically, a great time to invest.

521
00:36:20,320 --> 00:36:23,960
But a lot of families, they're a bit gun shy.

522
00:36:23,960 --> 00:36:26,600
It's probably the nicest way to do it.

523
00:36:26,600 --> 00:36:30,200
And not necessarily gun shy, they're looking at other alternative assets such as, you know,

524
00:36:30,200 --> 00:36:33,840
commercial property, you know, private lending's paying 15%.

525
00:36:33,840 --> 00:36:35,840
It's more, you know, risk reward.

526
00:36:35,840 --> 00:36:36,840
Right.

527
00:36:36,840 --> 00:36:42,920
So, you know, how are you finding the sentiment out there for the asset class, which you guys

528
00:36:42,920 --> 00:36:44,760
currently cover?

529
00:36:44,760 --> 00:36:46,760
And what opportunities are you currently seeing?

530
00:36:46,760 --> 00:36:50,600
I think there's probably two questions in there.

531
00:36:50,600 --> 00:36:56,440
So, the first one is like sentiment, I guess, from the families and the LPs behind each

532
00:36:56,440 --> 00:36:58,400
of the funds that are being raised at the moment.

533
00:36:58,400 --> 00:37:02,520
And then the second one is like one of the actual opportunities that we're seeing in

534
00:37:02,520 --> 00:37:05,440
the market to deploy capital.

535
00:37:05,440 --> 00:37:10,380
And I think maybe I'll touch on the second one and Rowan, you could touch a little bit

536
00:37:10,380 --> 00:37:12,160
on the first part of that.

537
00:37:12,160 --> 00:37:13,160
So on the LPs.

538
00:37:13,160 --> 00:37:19,080
In terms of the technology opportunities, I think we're seeing a range of different

539
00:37:19,080 --> 00:37:20,160
things come through now.

540
00:37:20,160 --> 00:37:25,220
We're starting to see companies that are falling out of the scope of VC because they've been

541
00:37:25,220 --> 00:37:27,400
backed by VC dollars in the past.

542
00:37:27,400 --> 00:37:32,640
However, they're not high enough growth rates anymore to sustain VC reinvestment.

543
00:37:32,640 --> 00:37:36,040
So there's a lot of those type companies coming through that are like, well, actually, you

544
00:37:36,040 --> 00:37:39,760
know, if we're not going to be on that 100X journey anymore, what do we do?

545
00:37:39,760 --> 00:37:40,760
How do we raise money?

546
00:37:40,760 --> 00:37:42,880
How do we actually flip this business, make it sustainable?

547
00:37:42,880 --> 00:37:48,400
Make it more interesting to a wider range of investors or actually turn it to profitability?

548
00:37:48,400 --> 00:37:54,440
Starting to see a lot of founders have those sorts of discussions with their investor base

549
00:37:54,440 --> 00:38:00,080
and also within their boards, which is interesting in generating a whole new type of deal flow

550
00:38:00,080 --> 00:38:02,080
and opportunity.

551
00:38:02,080 --> 00:38:05,920
I think we're seeing a lot more founders in the early stage actually start to think about,

552
00:38:05,920 --> 00:38:09,320
you know, how do I build a business that doesn't require funding?

553
00:38:09,320 --> 00:38:16,440
Or is there a way to reduce or limit the amount of funding that I need over the overall journey

554
00:38:16,440 --> 00:38:21,600
so that I don't find myself having to raise, you know, enormous amounts of capital and

555
00:38:21,600 --> 00:38:28,280
have huge preferential stacks above all the ordinary shareholders, which is also a theme

556
00:38:28,280 --> 00:38:31,480
that's been talked about a lot at the moment.

557
00:38:31,480 --> 00:38:36,480
Just for those that aren't across it there, that's how the preference stack of capital

558
00:38:36,480 --> 00:38:41,040
impacts the ordinary shareholders and most often the ordinary shareholders will be the

559
00:38:41,040 --> 00:38:43,920
employees and founders of the businesses themselves.

560
00:38:43,920 --> 00:38:51,240
There's a lot of, I guess, talk around some of those concepts.

561
00:38:51,240 --> 00:38:57,680
And then more broadly, I think we're seeing a lot of just well-priced great founders building

562
00:38:57,680 --> 00:39:01,160
good businesses that are just coming through looking for great strategic partners long

563
00:39:01,160 --> 00:39:02,160
term.

564
00:39:02,160 --> 00:39:08,480
So I think that's been an exciting trend as well in terms of the LPs, maybe Rowan, you

565
00:39:08,480 --> 00:39:12,800
can cover, I guess, the appetite side of things like with the capital flowing into venture

566
00:39:12,800 --> 00:39:13,800
funds.

567
00:39:13,800 --> 00:39:14,800
Yeah.

568
00:39:14,800 --> 00:39:22,480
So I'd say in the last year, so we've had a lot of conversations with both existing

569
00:39:22,480 --> 00:39:28,720
and prospective LPs, predominantly family offices over the last 12 months.

570
00:39:28,720 --> 00:39:36,640
And there's been probably since that Silicon Valley Bank, the regional banking crisis in

571
00:39:36,640 --> 00:39:44,440
the US since that early March, there's been a lot of pullback in interest in private markets,

572
00:39:44,440 --> 00:39:46,200
we've found.

573
00:39:46,200 --> 00:39:52,960
And talking to our peers in the venture space, that seems to be unanimous.

574
00:39:52,960 --> 00:39:57,920
And that sort of coincides with the inflation and the rate rises.

575
00:39:57,920 --> 00:40:02,640
So as the interest rates go up, pushes up the discount rate, lowers valuation.

576
00:40:02,640 --> 00:40:08,360
So I think there was a dynamic of people not wanting to catch a falling knife and do new

577
00:40:08,360 --> 00:40:14,680
deals knowing that they could be buying something that's value is lower in any subsequent month

578
00:40:14,680 --> 00:40:16,240
after that for a period of time.

579
00:40:16,240 --> 00:40:22,800
So most investors we spoke to were sitting on their hands, they were having to allocate

580
00:40:22,800 --> 00:40:30,080
any liquid capital they have into re-upping either the main family business where the

581
00:40:30,080 --> 00:40:34,800
initial wealth came from, if that's still an operating business or re-upping into existing

582
00:40:34,800 --> 00:40:37,760
funds that were having to then re-up into their portfolio.

583
00:40:37,760 --> 00:40:47,480
So there was a lot of holding cash for those types of scenarios, which is funny because

584
00:40:47,480 --> 00:40:50,900
we spoke earlier in the conversation about how uncomfortable we were with valuations

585
00:40:50,900 --> 00:40:56,240
for the prior three years around that exact same time, like the start of 2022 calendar

586
00:40:56,240 --> 00:40:57,280
year.

587
00:40:57,280 --> 00:41:01,360
We got really excited about valuations for the first time in a long time and we were

588
00:41:01,360 --> 00:41:03,080
eager to deploy.

589
00:41:03,080 --> 00:41:08,960
And it's one of those sort of fearful when others are greedy situations where we were

590
00:41:08,960 --> 00:41:15,720
seeing the best deals of many years and no one was there doing them.

591
00:41:15,720 --> 00:41:22,280
So I found that very interesting, but I think of recent, like the last couple of months,

592
00:41:22,280 --> 00:41:26,600
I think people are starting to be a bit more confident again, we're seeing deals get done.

593
00:41:26,600 --> 00:41:31,400
Valuations are still modest and attractive in our opinion.

594
00:41:31,400 --> 00:41:37,320
But yeah, it's still the pace is so much slower than the prior three years.

595
00:41:37,320 --> 00:41:43,080
Yeah, look, I was speaking with someone else that pointed out to me that that Christmas

596
00:41:43,080 --> 00:41:49,200
rally which we saw like October, November, the Russell 2000 literally in a month or five

597
00:41:49,200 --> 00:41:54,200
weeks had went from its 52 week low to its 52 week high.

598
00:41:54,200 --> 00:41:55,200
Wow.

599
00:41:55,200 --> 00:41:56,200
Yeah, crazy.

600
00:41:56,200 --> 00:41:59,600
Right after doing nothing like before.

601
00:41:59,600 --> 00:42:03,560
And then the other thing which was quite interesting, which we saw like, you know, just doing a

602
00:42:03,560 --> 00:42:07,880
check over what happened last year is if we completely disregarded what interest rates

603
00:42:07,880 --> 00:42:13,040
did and we literally made our investment decisions on macroeconomics here, based on the Australian

604
00:42:13,040 --> 00:42:18,200
10 year bond rate and the US 10 year bond rate, you pretty much would have called the

605
00:42:18,200 --> 00:42:19,200
market.

606
00:42:19,200 --> 00:42:23,800
I find incredibly interesting about things how things have behaved.

607
00:42:23,800 --> 00:42:30,520
So that's why it's very interesting to hear what you guys are seeing as opportunity currently.

608
00:42:30,520 --> 00:42:35,400
And then what do you think is going to happen 2024?

609
00:42:35,400 --> 00:42:37,320
Pretty excited about 2024 to be honest.

610
00:42:37,320 --> 00:42:43,200
I think a lot of people are thinking about the market as sort of like a fresh slate,

611
00:42:43,200 --> 00:42:48,600
see what happens, see what happens with the interest rate rises if they come through,

612
00:42:48,600 --> 00:42:50,040
how that impact will flow on.

613
00:42:50,040 --> 00:42:57,280
But if we're talking specifically around startups and technology companies and, you know, building

614
00:42:57,280 --> 00:43:02,320
business, I think, as I mentioned earlier, there's been like this return to fundamental

615
00:43:02,320 --> 00:43:08,800
thinking and that's a really good theme for us as investors and I guess anyone as an investor

616
00:43:08,800 --> 00:43:13,940
right now looking at private market opportunities because it's just forcing the discipline back

617
00:43:13,940 --> 00:43:19,280
into the industry that perhaps was lost a lot over the last of the prior 10 years or

618
00:43:19,280 --> 00:43:23,760
prior five years, I should say, when there was just an abundance of capital available

619
00:43:23,760 --> 00:43:27,160
in the market just flowing into these technology companies.

620
00:43:27,160 --> 00:43:33,400
That created a lot of unstructured thinking, a lot of lack of discipline and, you know,

621
00:43:33,400 --> 00:43:36,080
the flow and effects of those things are huge.

622
00:43:36,080 --> 00:43:42,600
And seeing that correct, I think has been a very good experience and I'm quite optimistic

623
00:43:42,600 --> 00:43:46,880
about the opportunities that we're seeing come across the desk already across all the

624
00:43:46,880 --> 00:43:48,680
categories, AI being a big one.

625
00:43:48,680 --> 00:43:51,600
We're seeing a lot of that at the moment.

626
00:43:51,600 --> 00:43:57,240
So I think, yeah, you know, there's no shortage of entrepreneurial talent and technology companies

627
00:43:57,240 --> 00:43:58,560
coming through.

628
00:43:58,560 --> 00:44:06,460
It's more so trying to find some stability and clarity through a lot of the macro uncertainty

629
00:44:06,460 --> 00:44:07,960
and how that unfolds.

630
00:44:07,960 --> 00:44:14,120
Yeah, Dan, so you mentioned AI, it wouldn't be a conversation in this century if we didn't

631
00:44:14,120 --> 00:44:15,240
discuss AI.

632
00:44:15,240 --> 00:44:21,080
So with the deals that you're currently seeing, what's interesting that you're seeing that's

633
00:44:21,080 --> 00:44:26,560
come across the table, are they companies that are legacy that AI has been introduced

634
00:44:26,560 --> 00:44:34,040
to to kind of make them become attractive or are these legitimate problems being solved

635
00:44:34,040 --> 00:44:41,040
by artificial intelligence as a tool to essentially improve the service industry or solve a problem?

636
00:44:41,040 --> 00:44:44,760
You know, it's a good question, Madoc.

637
00:44:44,760 --> 00:44:49,320
We are seeing a lot of, I think, Ron and I sit back and talk about this all the time

638
00:44:49,320 --> 00:44:52,640
because there's a lot of noise in the AI space at the moment.

639
00:44:52,640 --> 00:44:56,120
I think it's something that investors have to be very careful about.

640
00:44:56,120 --> 00:45:02,720
And I mean, we have had many discussions where we think a lot of the AI opportunities that

641
00:45:02,720 --> 00:45:07,960
are out there in the market at the moment are actually uninvestable or not interesting.

642
00:45:07,960 --> 00:45:09,320
And there's a couple of reasons for this.

643
00:45:09,320 --> 00:45:13,800
You touched on a few of them, but I think there's a lot of businesses out there that

644
00:45:13,800 --> 00:45:22,240
are sort of positioning themselves as AI enabled or AI equipped that are actually just to your

645
00:45:22,240 --> 00:45:25,440
earlier thoughts in the podcast that we've been speaking about, like, you know, they

646
00:45:25,440 --> 00:45:31,720
might be services businesses or they might be software businesses that are non-AI that

647
00:45:31,720 --> 00:45:34,220
are bolting on AI functionality.

648
00:45:34,220 --> 00:45:39,800
They may be early stage companies that are positioning themselves as AI, but there's

649
00:45:39,800 --> 00:45:42,680
actually no AI talent in the team.

650
00:45:42,680 --> 00:45:44,520
They don't actually have in-house AI.

651
00:45:44,520 --> 00:45:46,360
They're just leveraging third-party apps.

652
00:45:46,360 --> 00:45:52,160
So you have to be very disciplined, I guess, and specific and do your diligence on most

653
00:45:52,160 --> 00:45:57,000
of the AI that's coming through at the moment to actually validate that one, it is what

654
00:45:57,000 --> 00:46:00,880
it claims to be in terms of there is AI there.

655
00:46:00,880 --> 00:46:05,400
Two, that there's actually people in these companies that understand what the AI is doing

656
00:46:05,400 --> 00:46:10,960
and how it's working and how to create value from that AI.

657
00:46:10,960 --> 00:46:17,720
And three, that there's actually a sufficient or should I say viable business model behind

658
00:46:17,720 --> 00:46:22,640
the AI component of the business that should be monetized or could be monetized.

659
00:46:22,640 --> 00:46:26,400
So these are some of the discussions that Roland and I have when something comes across

660
00:46:26,400 --> 00:46:31,480
the desk, the first thing we'll look at is what's actually here in this business that's

661
00:46:31,480 --> 00:46:33,880
AI and who is building it.

662
00:46:33,880 --> 00:46:38,240
And if you start to do that level of analysis, I think you learn pretty quickly that there

663
00:46:38,240 --> 00:46:39,240
is a lot of noise.

664
00:46:39,240 --> 00:46:43,840
There's a lot of garbage and you do have to be very careful with what you're investing

665
00:46:43,840 --> 00:46:44,840
in.

666
00:46:44,840 --> 00:46:50,840
And to be frank, there's very few businesses out there that have actually proven a viable

667
00:46:50,840 --> 00:46:55,880
business model where the economics are sustainable and make sense, at least from what I've seen.

668
00:46:55,880 --> 00:47:04,520
So I think there's a lot of AI opportunity, a lot of technical interest and entrepreneurial

669
00:47:04,520 --> 00:47:07,200
interest going into the category, but definitely something to be very careful of.

670
00:47:07,200 --> 00:47:11,840
I'm not sure if you had anything to add to that, Roland.

671
00:47:11,840 --> 00:47:12,840
I agree.

672
00:47:12,840 --> 00:47:20,160
I'm sort of an optimist as a consumer in the AI space, but from an investment side of things,

673
00:47:20,160 --> 00:47:22,920
a lot more cautious.

674
00:47:22,920 --> 00:47:29,760
And you can see it in our DealFlow data, just the spike in number of companies that are

675
00:47:29,760 --> 00:47:40,160
using AI in their pitch deck, because we track our DealFlow and we'll tag the software type,

676
00:47:40,160 --> 00:47:42,320
the industry, things like that.

677
00:47:42,320 --> 00:47:48,440
And I don't know if it's half, but it's spiked dramatically that the number of companies

678
00:47:48,440 --> 00:47:55,400
coming in saying they are in some way related or building AI has just gone through the roof.

679
00:47:55,400 --> 00:48:00,080
And you know, it's just not true because we don't have that much AI, genuine AI talent.

680
00:48:00,080 --> 00:48:06,360
So I think there's a lot of noise and that makes us nervous.

681
00:48:06,360 --> 00:48:14,000
So we typically sit back, do a lot of reading, thinking, let others move first when something

682
00:48:14,000 --> 00:48:15,000
is moving this quickly.

683
00:48:15,000 --> 00:48:19,640
Because frankly, I think it's going to be a lot of mistakes.

684
00:48:19,640 --> 00:48:21,920
Whilst we like risk, we don't like making a lot of mistakes.

685
00:48:21,920 --> 00:48:28,960
So yeah, I'll keep playing with Dali and ChatGVT on my own time, but I doubt we'll be doing

686
00:48:28,960 --> 00:48:29,960
it.

687
00:48:29,960 --> 00:48:33,040
Well, the reason why I like using fund managers is, let's be honest, you guys are substantially

688
00:48:33,040 --> 00:48:36,520
more intelligent than I would ever be in a particular topic.

689
00:48:36,520 --> 00:48:40,840
I'm just a jack of all trades, knowledgeable at everything, but not as much as anything.

690
00:48:40,840 --> 00:48:49,400
But what seems to have me dialed in is the social media platforms, what I want.

691
00:48:49,400 --> 00:48:54,040
Usually I must have been talking about contracts to somebody, or like accidentally maybe just

692
00:48:54,040 --> 00:48:56,320
thinking it and they've tapped my thoughts.

693
00:48:56,320 --> 00:49:01,280
But there's this, I can't remember the app that came up and how they pitched it was,

694
00:49:01,280 --> 00:49:07,620
it's an app created by artificial, by AI, which is essentially like the ChatGVT for

695
00:49:07,620 --> 00:49:09,240
legal negotiating contracts.

696
00:49:09,240 --> 00:49:12,780
Give us a contract, say specifically exactly what you want.

697
00:49:12,780 --> 00:49:16,920
And we'll negotiate as hard or as little as possible, our particular things and give you

698
00:49:16,920 --> 00:49:17,920
options.

699
00:49:17,920 --> 00:49:24,320
I was just so excited until I found out, oh, please put your information in here and we'll

700
00:49:24,320 --> 00:49:29,720
send you an update when it's actually about to work.

701
00:49:29,720 --> 00:49:30,720
And I'm like, well, that's great.

702
00:49:30,720 --> 00:49:33,720
I kind of need it today.

703
00:49:33,720 --> 00:49:41,960
So to me, we're seeing AI, software as a service businesses, there are services like that,

704
00:49:41,960 --> 00:49:45,880
that business owners like myself, that is a viable business.

705
00:49:45,880 --> 00:49:48,160
That there is incredibly helpful.

706
00:49:48,160 --> 00:49:50,480
It can get me a running jump on something.

707
00:49:50,480 --> 00:49:54,560
And then just like when you get sick, you Dr. Google, it doesn't mean I'm right, but

708
00:49:54,560 --> 00:49:58,760
at least it gives me the ability to play with something that I couldn't potentially play

709
00:49:58,760 --> 00:50:04,320
before and then take a couple of versions of what I think and then take that to a professional

710
00:50:04,320 --> 00:50:11,360
who has trained for 400 hours, 1,400 years, whatever it is, to get the advice that's appropriate.

711
00:50:11,360 --> 00:50:16,640
Wouldn't you agree that there is a viable, something that sounds interesting.

712
00:50:16,640 --> 00:50:17,920
Is there anything like that?

713
00:50:17,920 --> 00:50:18,920
Fine.

714
00:50:18,920 --> 00:50:19,920
Is that actually a real business?

715
00:50:19,920 --> 00:50:25,320
It's probably just some dodgy marketing thing on Instagram, but have you seen any businesses

716
00:50:25,320 --> 00:50:32,440
like in the legal practices that would be quite attractive in that particular area?

717
00:50:32,440 --> 00:50:33,440
Not in the AI space.

718
00:50:33,440 --> 00:50:35,440
I know some stuff exists.

719
00:50:35,440 --> 00:50:40,600
I may have seen the same thing as you, the negotiating, the chat GPT for negotiating.

720
00:50:40,600 --> 00:50:42,440
I didn't try it though.

721
00:50:42,440 --> 00:50:48,960
I'm always wary of uploading our legal documents into stuff like that until I know who the

722
00:50:48,960 --> 00:50:54,120
company is and what's behind them because they're capturing that data and no one reads

723
00:50:54,120 --> 00:50:55,120
the Ts and Cs.

724
00:50:55,120 --> 00:50:56,120
What do they do with that?

725
00:50:56,120 --> 00:50:58,280
So I've seen them around.

726
00:50:58,280 --> 00:51:06,280
I know the potential for disruption in the legal industry space from AI is huge, which

727
00:51:06,280 --> 00:51:13,400
is wiring a lot of the younger lawyers that I talk to, but haven't seen any in the flesh.

728
00:51:13,400 --> 00:51:14,400
Interesting.

729
00:51:14,400 --> 00:51:16,920
I didn't even think about that.

730
00:51:16,920 --> 00:51:22,560
Obviously the copyright makes a lot of sense, but anything that's just high service.

731
00:51:22,560 --> 00:51:27,640
What we're seeing in financial planning as well, anything that's high amount of legal

732
00:51:27,640 --> 00:51:32,120
work that can essentially take an eight hour task and turn it into two hours and spit

733
00:51:32,120 --> 00:51:35,200
out something that's highly accurate is a great result.

734
00:51:35,200 --> 00:51:41,600
I think you're making a good point, but there are a lot of different use cases where as

735
00:51:41,600 --> 00:51:47,320
a consumer or a business using the AI service is valuable.

736
00:51:47,320 --> 00:51:50,460
I think that there's absolutely no doubt about that.

737
00:51:50,460 --> 00:51:55,600
From an investor standpoint, I guess the conversation that Raul and I often have or always have

738
00:51:55,600 --> 00:51:59,440
is more on the back end of that.

739
00:51:59,440 --> 00:52:04,400
Who's actually providing the technology that provides the value and how is that monetized

740
00:52:04,400 --> 00:52:08,360
and is that what we're investing in versus the as a consumer, do you get benefit from

741
00:52:08,360 --> 00:52:10,640
using this platform?

742
00:52:10,640 --> 00:52:15,360
Those two things, while they seem similar, I guess the difference comes down to who's

743
00:52:15,360 --> 00:52:19,440
building the technology and who's getting the economic value of having deployed it to

744
00:52:19,440 --> 00:52:20,780
the market.

745
00:52:20,780 --> 00:52:25,640
Do they have the right licensing and the right rights to actually be able to monetize that

746
00:52:25,640 --> 00:52:30,280
particular technology and then own the IP behind it as well?

747
00:52:30,280 --> 00:52:34,560
Those kind of questions that we find ourselves asking, there's absolutely no shortage of

748
00:52:34,560 --> 00:52:40,600
really funky tools on the internet now that are powered by AI that actually have very

749
00:52:40,600 --> 00:52:46,320
decent use cases and they can be quite helpful to your point making things more efficient

750
00:52:46,320 --> 00:52:49,000
or even accessible.

751
00:52:49,000 --> 00:52:51,160
I think you're absolutely right.

752
00:52:51,160 --> 00:52:55,600
There's some really cool stuff out there, but in terms of what we're thinking and what

753
00:52:55,600 --> 00:53:00,280
we're doing, we're just keeping a keen eye out there and I guess analyzing everything

754
00:53:00,280 --> 00:53:05,000
that comes across the desk to try and really understand economic value and business models.

755
00:53:05,000 --> 00:53:07,040
Well, thanks Dan.

756
00:53:07,040 --> 00:53:12,160
AI is always quite interesting, but back to the fund itself.

757
00:53:12,160 --> 00:53:18,800
If anyone wants to learn more about this, the second fund, what's the best way they

758
00:53:18,800 --> 00:53:23,560
can find information or is there anything that we haven't discussed that you think they

759
00:53:23,560 --> 00:53:24,560
might need to know?

760
00:53:24,560 --> 00:53:29,520
Look, I think the best way to reach out to us is probably on LinkedIn.

761
00:53:29,520 --> 00:53:31,040
You can reach out to Rowan and I directly.

762
00:53:31,040 --> 00:53:34,720
I'm always pretty active on LinkedIn to make sure that I get back to any other people that

763
00:53:34,720 --> 00:53:36,480
reach out.

764
00:53:36,480 --> 00:53:40,960
In terms of learning more about our fund and what we're working on and I guess our philosophy,

765
00:53:40,960 --> 00:53:47,920
we have a website that you can access at arborcapital.co that talks a little bit about the philosophy

766
00:53:47,920 --> 00:53:53,320
and in terms of what we're working on at the moment, we are still raising that fund.

767
00:53:53,320 --> 00:54:00,560
It is permanent in nature so annually we do open the books and would love to speak to

768
00:54:00,560 --> 00:54:05,080
investors and family officers that really share our philosophy and would be interested

769
00:54:05,080 --> 00:54:07,960
in having a further conversation.

770
00:54:07,960 --> 00:54:12,480
Last question I'd like finishing on is what keeps you up at night and what gets you out

771
00:54:12,480 --> 00:54:15,480
of bed in the morning?

772
00:54:15,480 --> 00:54:20,180
Jeez, you've got me completely unprepared for that and I've got no idea.

773
00:54:20,180 --> 00:54:21,180
What keeps me up at night?

774
00:54:21,180 --> 00:54:27,080
I think at the minute, Rowan and I have been on a journey of building our business over

775
00:54:27,080 --> 00:54:35,600
the last two years and it's been a tough economic environment and just generally a very tough

776
00:54:35,600 --> 00:54:40,200
environment to have discussions about venture capital and raising funds.

777
00:54:40,200 --> 00:54:47,040
I think that's always been challenging but a challenge worth overcoming and pursuing

778
00:54:47,040 --> 00:54:53,080
so we're pushing forward and doing the best we can in the current environment and maybe

779
00:54:53,080 --> 00:54:55,560
I'll pass to you, Rowan.

780
00:54:55,560 --> 00:55:03,400
I think managing other people's money always keeps you up at night I think to some degree.

781
00:55:03,400 --> 00:55:10,180
I'd be worried if it didn't and getting me up in the morning probably literally and figuratively

782
00:55:10,180 --> 00:55:17,080
my three-year-old and two-year-old get me up in the morning earlier than I would like

783
00:55:17,080 --> 00:55:19,080
but it's worth it.

784
00:55:19,080 --> 00:55:25,400
Well, James, it's great to have you on and really appreciate the insights you've given.

785
00:55:25,400 --> 00:55:27,880
I've learned a lot today.

786
00:55:27,880 --> 00:55:32,800
So with that being said, I wish you the best and I look forward to having you on again.

787
00:55:32,800 --> 00:55:33,800
Awesome.

788
00:55:33,800 --> 00:55:34,800
Thanks, Fels.

789
00:55:34,800 --> 00:55:35,800
Thank you.

790
00:55:35,800 --> 00:55:47,800
Thanks, James.

791
00:55:47,800 --> 00:55:51,760
Any views expressed in this recording do not represent the view of any other third party

792
00:55:51,760 --> 00:55:54,440
and other sole personal opinions of the speaker.

793
00:55:54,440 --> 00:55:58,440
Any reference to financial product does not constitute advice or recommendation and before

794
00:55:58,440 --> 00:56:02,440
any action you should seek proper advice from your financial professional.

795
00:56:02,440 --> 00:56:09,240
Australian listeners should head to www.moneysmart.gov.au to find more information on obtaining financial

796
00:56:09,240 --> 00:56:10,240
advice.

797
00:56:10,240 --> 00:56:32,960
To get in touch with York, head to our website www.yorkwelf.com.au.

