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Welcome to the Cannabis Data Science Meetup Group.

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Thrilled to have you all here.

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This is a roundtable for all of you brilliant minds

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to come together.

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I'll join you too.

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And we can talk about cannabis data, various scientific ways

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that we can analyze the data.

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Why?

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Well, the cannabis industry has been moving forward.

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It's going through turbulent times.

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And the way I say is we can let the politicians politic.

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We can let the lawyers that practice law and all of that

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jazz.

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What can we add to the table?

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We can calculate statistics.

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And I think that adds an extraordinary amount

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to the picture.

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So today, once again, we'll put a bunch of really cool

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statistics in your pocket.

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Because that's what I do.

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I just start calculating most basic statistics

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and work my way up.

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And I love presenting to all of you

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because I actually want your red ink.

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So please be super critical of my work

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because this is just like a first draft, a rough draft

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of some data analytics.

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And the way any good writer gets better

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is by getting critiqued by an editor.

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So please view yourselves as critical editors.

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And then if you ever have any research

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that you want to bring here and get critiqued

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by a friendly group of peers, you're welcome to.

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So that's sort of the mission of the group.

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So just going to, if you want, I always do this.

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Let me know if this is ever painful.

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But I always find it's pretty fun just to go around

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and let everybody just maybe say a quick word for themselves

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and maybe what you're working on this week

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or anything you want to see added to the table,

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any data that you're after, anything at all.

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So I may actually go in reverse order today

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if that's OK with everybody.

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Just kind of interested.

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And so Ruth, if you've got your microphone set up,

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we'd love to hear about some of the things

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you want to bring to the picture.

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That way we can let some of the newer members speak

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and then we can let the veterans have their say.

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Also, you may just be muted this time around.

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OK, there we go.

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No real data issues to report.

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I'm giving a talk tomorrow on evolution of science

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and technology in cannabis and how I think the research

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into medical cannabis is going to end up being like penicillin

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and it will have wide-ranging implications

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for many other disciplines and throughout society.

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So I'm excited about that.

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But no real data work to report.

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It's cool that you bring that up because we can't forget

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about the medical side of the picture.

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And as I'll show you today, I don't think it's going anywhere.

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You've got the tiniest bit of data points

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that we can actually begin to actually uncover

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a little bit about medical cannabis.

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So I just scraped the surface so there's actually more for you

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to dive into.

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So cool data today.

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Thanks for joining me.

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Kayla, I know you were interested in strains.

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You're running copyright, not copyright,

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copyright left cultivars.

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Coincidentally, we'll be talking about a few cultivars today.

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We'd love to go a bit further in depth.

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So once again, we'll just scrape the surface.

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So this is something you can go much deeper on.

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But once again, we'd love to hear about what you want to put

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on the table for today.

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Cool. Yeah, thanks.

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Well, I've just been working on refining the intake system

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for the backend, the database and for the galaxy

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that we're working on.

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We're working on a copyleft protected open source

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public collaboration galaxy where we can have systems

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for open collaboration and breeding as well as sharing

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trait and gene information that can lead towards openly sharing

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the benefits of that in breeding,

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in understanding the meaning of the genes,

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and even like being able to build that out.

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So I've been working kind of on the backend there.

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So I'm a little out of breath.

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I just finished my workout right before this.

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But anyways, we're also working with this app that the

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University of Kansas put together and modifying that in tandem

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with them to be usable in the field for cannabis growers

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to document all that information that I just said,

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get it into our galaxy.

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So I've been pretty deep into that work this last week,

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as well as we're building a bot, an AI-powered chat bot

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that has natural farming and Frickshark beta and similar

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information there, working with people like maybe in Thailand

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and Ghana, other places to see if we can hone it in for their

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farmers, cannabis included, but that's more broadly just for

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plants in general and more organic farming techniques.

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So yeah, that's really what I've been deep on.

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I'm excited to see the data though and chit chat.

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And you know, I love networking in this space and building

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these connections, moving this open science along.

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So thanks for bringing us all here to collaborate.

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I love it.

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Tons of ideas, but I'll let Ruth chime in so I don't steal

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the show.

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Ruth, what do you think?

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That's really interesting.

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I'm interested in understanding our, if you're looking at

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strain genetics and profiles and stuff, are you seeing an

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increase in variety or decrease in variety?

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So are we seeing essentially more incestuousness or are we

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actually getting more variety out there?

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So that's a great question.

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That's one of the questions that we hope to answer.

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But the real down in the dirt answer is that we just don't

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know.

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And there's even like been a number of papers attempting to

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do this that in the papers tend to also admit that we just

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don't have the data to know that.

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And so a lot of what we're trying to do at Copyloaf

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is just create the systems where the community can then get

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the data together and then we can figure out the real answers

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to those questions and more questions.

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Now, are you looking at data just within the country?

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I mean, you mentioned like Ghana and I mean, certainly in a

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lot of areas in Europe.

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I've seen studies done and they tend to focus on, you know,

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there's studies done out of, was it like Amsterdam or Sweden

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or something trying to look at kind of the variety in the

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plants there.

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But they tend to go into one area and get a sampling there.

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And I'd be interested almost like in a global sampling, is

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anything like that being done?

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Yeah, it seems like you're thinking along the same line

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that we're doing.

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So our perspective is a little bit different, you know,

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talking.

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We kind of came out of a community series of meetings,

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open meetings, and there were researchers, there were people

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who had kind of been burned out by the phylos incident.

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There were like all of these different interests.

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There were people from the highlands of Tibet and in

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Thailand.

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And so we have like lots of different influences in the

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formation and we decided that our approach should be entirely

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open.

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And so we're not going in and getting a data set.

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We're creating a system that anyone can put their data into

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and know that it won't be hijacked, that it will be kept in

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these open source systems where we can't even, as the holders

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of it, lock it down because of the licensing terms.

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Can you put a link to kind of your site or whatever it is

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that you're doing into the notes?

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So I would love to share that with other people.

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I'm sure a lot of people would be very interested in that.

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And thank you very much for doing that.

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Oh, yeah, absolutely.

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It's a big passion and also it's a lot of fun.

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And yeah, it's copyleftcultivars.com.

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So I'll put that there in the chat.

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Yeah, we're super just open collaboration themed.

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So feel free to reach out.

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You know, I don't want to drag the meeting too far into kind of

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recruiting or networking for the nonprofit because I know we have

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some really cool information also that Keegan has brought.

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But yeah, I want to be super open also to anybody who wants to

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jump in and be involved with the work we're doing.

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This is the fun thing about the meetup because we can actually go

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off road.

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So right, there's no reason we have to stay on the agenda.

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We don't have to stay on the trail.

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And I think you're doing a much more rigorous job at this because

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Ruth asked a super interesting question, which is, you know,

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what's going on with the diversity in cannabis?

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Like, so I guess you would think genetic diversity.

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So, of course, you need to do some genetic testing.

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But what came to my mind is we could estimate perhaps what's

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going on.

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And once again, we don't have genetic data, but we have strain

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data.

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And so that's what I'll share with you today.

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And so what we could just do, this is more of just a product count

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versus diversity count, but you could just count all the unique

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strains that are tested in any given month and see if that's

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going up or down.

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Once again, that doesn't necessarily mean diversity is going

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up or down because you may just have, and I'll show you later,

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you may have like runts and white runts and yellow runts and all

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of that jazz.

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So just because there's a proliferate variation of strain

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names doesn't mean diversity is going up or down.

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But any, Yasha, you have some thoughts?

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Yeah, I want to second what everyone else is saying.

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I think what you're working on is really cool.

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And Copyleft is an excellent name.

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And to back up what Keegan is saying, I really like the concept

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of when you have something that you're the first to measure,

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if you can measure it from multiple different approaches,

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one is from the data and strain names, another one could be from

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the bouquet of compounds found within the open data,

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a third is genetic testing.

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I don't know what else, maybe just like culturally, what are

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people talking about more, what comes up more as mentioned in

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terms of strains, but there may be multiple sources that point

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at the same thing that could make the work that much more

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certain.

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I like the idea of having compounds as identifiers.

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That's a great one.

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Yeah, we're actually currently working on with the app trying

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to figure out how we make those parts collectible, so to speak,

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since it was built for like corn, for example, field crops

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like that.

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But yeah, I love that as a possible identifier as well.

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And yeah, the strain name idea is a great one, and I think you

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can also use tools like Seed Finder or like we have a project

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going where we're web scraping Seed Finder and a bunch of other

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sites like that that already have Creative Commons repositories

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of strain names and like their parents listed, and then we're

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putting it in Gephi, which is a data visualizer that does the

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network graphs, and you can build like these genealogy networks.

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And so you can actually be like, okay, so all these strains are

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in this cluster, so they're not very diverse, at least by

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self-reported data, not always the most accurate, but then at

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least it's what we've got, right?

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And then we can take that and then be like, oh, but these

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strains over here are in like a list like what Keegan's going to

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go over, and oh, those ones are actually like very unique.

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They're not in this cluster or they're not in our galaxy at all.

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I think that's an interesting way to pursue that line of

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questioning.

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Ruth, you may want to go because I feel like there are so many

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good ideas here.

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Yeah, well, I just read an article and I posted a link to

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it in the comments.

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They discovered a new class in addition to terpenes called

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flavorants, which are adding, you know, supplementing and

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distinguishing the smells and they think the effects because

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they said if you look across strains, you have plants with

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very different, with similar terpenes are creating different

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effects.

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So this is yet another differentiator and we know that

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they're finding all new, I guess, markers.

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They're still trying to figure out how different compounds

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create their effects and what are the important ingredients.

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And, you know, first we start with cannabinoids and then we

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moved on to terpenes and I've heard of flavonoids, but I just

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heard about flavorants and it's just, I'll stop there.

255
00:13:53,680 --> 00:13:55,680
I'll go on forever if I don't.

256
00:13:55,680 --> 00:14:01,680
I found the first batch of COAs that had flavonoids on them.

257
00:14:01,680 --> 00:14:07,680
We've been collecting Florida COAs, haven't parsed them yet.

258
00:14:07,680 --> 00:14:14,680
We're moving so quick, it's hard to, right, that's why it's all

259
00:14:14,680 --> 00:14:17,680
hands on deck and I love having your help here because I only

260
00:14:17,680 --> 00:14:19,680
have so much time to even look at the data.

261
00:14:19,680 --> 00:14:22,680
So a lot of the data goes unlooked at.

262
00:14:22,680 --> 00:14:28,680
But we are collecting COAs from Florida and I have noticed that

263
00:14:28,680 --> 00:14:33,680
some of, not all, but some of the tests do have flavonoids on

264
00:14:33,680 --> 00:14:34,680
there.

265
00:14:34,680 --> 00:14:37,680
So it's going to be a whole other suite of compounds.

266
00:14:37,680 --> 00:14:41,680
We're going to have to think about how to collect and

267
00:14:41,680 --> 00:14:45,680
standardize.

268
00:14:45,680 --> 00:14:48,680
And then the other thought that goes in line with both Caleb and

269
00:14:48,680 --> 00:14:52,680
Yasha's thought is that's an even better idea than looking at

270
00:14:52,680 --> 00:14:56,680
the number of unique strains by month is somehow think of a

271
00:14:56,680 --> 00:15:03,680
metric that encapsulates the diversity of chemicals you're

272
00:15:03,680 --> 00:15:04,680
measuring.

273
00:15:04,680 --> 00:15:07,680
I don't even know what it would be, but I'm sure there would be

274
00:15:07,680 --> 00:15:13,680
some statistical, some statistic, which is basically, I don't

275
00:15:13,680 --> 00:15:15,680
know, variance or something.

276
00:15:15,680 --> 00:15:18,680
Maybe you just look at, but I don't know how you would do it

277
00:15:18,680 --> 00:15:20,680
cross compound.

278
00:15:20,680 --> 00:15:24,680
So maybe that's something for you all to kind of research.

279
00:15:24,680 --> 00:15:29,680
You know, what statistical concept could encapsulate just

280
00:15:29,680 --> 00:15:36,680
could we somehow measure just the total variation of chemicals

281
00:15:36,680 --> 00:15:39,680
we're seeing on a month by month basis?

282
00:15:39,680 --> 00:15:42,680
So that's a big concept.

283
00:15:42,680 --> 00:15:45,680
So that Yasha, that and Caleb, brilliant ideas.

284
00:15:45,680 --> 00:15:47,680
We'll have to investigate that further.

285
00:15:47,680 --> 00:15:49,680
So I don't think we can do that today.

286
00:15:49,680 --> 00:15:52,680
We may be able to off road with the strain names by month.

287
00:15:52,680 --> 00:15:58,680
So we'll try to save time to do that.

288
00:15:58,680 --> 00:16:01,680
And then actually final thought, and then Larissa and Candice, I

289
00:16:01,680 --> 00:16:03,680
don't want to leave you out of the picture, so I'll let you

290
00:16:03,680 --> 00:16:04,680
jump in.

291
00:16:04,680 --> 00:16:09,680
But final thought is, Caleb, what's cool is I'll get you a

292
00:16:09,680 --> 00:16:16,680
large data set today, but it's kind of lacking in data points.

293
00:16:16,680 --> 00:16:19,680
So the data set we have today, it's got like strain name, total

294
00:16:19,680 --> 00:16:24,680
THC, and that's pretty much it.

295
00:16:24,680 --> 00:16:26,680
And when it was tested.

296
00:16:26,680 --> 00:16:32,680
What you could do is what I'd love to do is augment data sets.

297
00:16:32,680 --> 00:16:38,680
You would take this data set and augment it with your own strain

298
00:16:38,680 --> 00:16:39,680
data.

299
00:16:39,680 --> 00:16:42,680
And it's going to be imperfect, right?

300
00:16:42,680 --> 00:16:47,680
You would love to actually have those samples tested for terpenes.

301
00:16:47,680 --> 00:16:49,680
But I don't know.

302
00:16:49,680 --> 00:16:56,680
I think any measure is better than no measure.

303
00:16:56,680 --> 00:17:00,680
And so basically what you're augmenting with it would basically be

304
00:17:00,680 --> 00:17:01,680
averages.

305
00:17:01,680 --> 00:17:07,680
So you, for example, we've got blue dream tested.

306
00:17:07,680 --> 00:17:11,680
So, you know, what if you augmented that with just the average

307
00:17:11,680 --> 00:17:17,680
terpene values you've seen for blue dream?

308
00:17:17,680 --> 00:17:19,680
So that's a great idea.

309
00:17:19,680 --> 00:17:20,680
Yeah.

310
00:17:20,680 --> 00:17:22,680
I know that I love your red ink.

311
00:17:22,680 --> 00:17:23,680
So jump in.

312
00:17:23,680 --> 00:17:24,680
Yeah.

313
00:17:24,680 --> 00:17:25,680
Sorry.

314
00:17:25,680 --> 00:17:26,680
There's so much to say about this.

315
00:17:26,680 --> 00:17:28,680
I think it's a fascinating project.

316
00:17:28,680 --> 00:17:33,680
I know that a huge number of flowers that are sold are not two

317
00:17:33,680 --> 00:17:36,680
flowers that are sold as blue dream may have nothing to do with each

318
00:17:36,680 --> 00:17:39,680
other genetically or through their compounds.

319
00:17:39,680 --> 00:17:44,680
But what I do believe we would see is a cluster of samples being

320
00:17:44,680 --> 00:17:47,680
nearly identical within blue dream.

321
00:17:47,680 --> 00:17:51,680
And maybe those can be identified as, okay, let's call this A1.

322
00:17:51,680 --> 00:17:54,680
And then many other clusters like that.

323
00:17:54,680 --> 00:17:56,680
Listen, I would talk about this all day.

324
00:17:56,680 --> 00:17:57,680
I'll stop.

325
00:17:57,680 --> 00:18:03,680
But there's one more thing that a single strain may have slightly or

326
00:18:03,680 --> 00:18:10,680
significantly different analytes based on its age and growing

327
00:18:10,680 --> 00:18:11,680
conditions.

328
00:18:11,680 --> 00:18:14,680
But I do believe that we likely have enough data through off the

329
00:18:14,680 --> 00:18:19,680
shelf testing and open data that would be able to show what is a

330
00:18:19,680 --> 00:18:26,680
single strain and how broad does it go within testing?

331
00:18:26,680 --> 00:18:28,680
Thank you.

332
00:18:28,680 --> 00:18:30,680
You're 100% correct.

333
00:18:30,680 --> 00:18:36,680
And basically what you're working on is there's going to be error,

334
00:18:36,680 --> 00:18:38,680
right, as soon as we estimate.

335
00:18:38,680 --> 00:18:42,680
I mean, as soon as we introduce estimates, there's going to be error.

336
00:18:42,680 --> 00:18:44,680
And the error may be non-negligible.

337
00:18:44,680 --> 00:18:46,680
There could be strong biases.

338
00:18:46,680 --> 00:18:48,680
There's a lot going on.

339
00:18:48,680 --> 00:18:55,680
So what I would hope is if you say you were going to do that, would

340
00:18:55,680 --> 00:19:00,680
love a large sample size because as we've mentioned, you know, the

341
00:19:00,680 --> 00:19:01,680
law of large numbers.

342
00:19:01,680 --> 00:19:06,680
But I don't know if that would necessarily get rid of any bias.

343
00:19:06,680 --> 00:19:08,680
So the bias may be baked in.

344
00:19:08,680 --> 00:19:12,680
But why would I even do that?

345
00:19:12,680 --> 00:19:17,680
Well, I would just want basically just a rough idea.

346
00:19:17,680 --> 00:19:21,680
So today we'll look at, like, say the top 20 strains in Michigan.

347
00:19:21,680 --> 00:19:27,680
And, you know, wouldn't it be cool to just know just approximately what

348
00:19:27,680 --> 00:19:34,680
is the chemical profile of these top strains?

349
00:19:34,680 --> 00:19:39,680
Unfortunately, we don't have the actual terpene data.

350
00:19:39,680 --> 00:19:42,680
It may not have been measured.

351
00:19:42,680 --> 00:19:46,680
Those products were grown, sold, smoked, gone.

352
00:19:46,680 --> 00:19:49,680
So we can't even measure them for terpenes anymore.

353
00:19:49,680 --> 00:19:53,680
So what do we do when there's missing data?

354
00:19:53,680 --> 00:19:55,680
The best we can do is estimate.

355
00:19:55,680 --> 00:20:01,680
But once again, the bias and error may be so great, it may be not

356
00:20:01,680 --> 00:20:03,680
worthwhile.

357
00:20:03,680 --> 00:20:06,680
So good considerations all around.

358
00:20:06,680 --> 00:20:08,680
But Caleb, you have some thoughts?

359
00:20:08,680 --> 00:20:12,680
And then Larisa and Candice, I'll let you chime in if you want to.

360
00:20:12,680 --> 00:20:17,680
Sorry to continue this rabbit hole, but I just thought maybe about the

361
00:20:17,680 --> 00:20:22,680
missing data that the consumers may also not have that information.

362
00:20:22,680 --> 00:20:26,680
And so the relevance for consumer choice may not be super high because

363
00:20:26,680 --> 00:20:31,680
they may be making the decision based on the perception of the strain,

364
00:20:31,680 --> 00:20:36,680
which is what we have the data of.

365
00:20:36,680 --> 00:20:41,680
That's a phenomenal point.

366
00:20:41,680 --> 00:20:48,680
I don't even know all the implications, but it's definitely a thing.

367
00:20:48,680 --> 00:20:53,680
People definitely say they could go and ask for a blue dream.

368
00:20:53,680 --> 00:20:59,680
That one's maybe a bit more standard, but something like a GMO, that could

369
00:20:59,680 --> 00:21:04,680
be all over the board, in my opinion.

370
00:21:04,680 --> 00:21:09,680
But anywho, those are just opinions.

371
00:21:09,680 --> 00:21:12,680
We can get to the data here in a second.

372
00:21:12,680 --> 00:21:17,680
But Larisa, you don't have to be put on the spot, but if you want to chime

373
00:21:17,680 --> 00:21:20,680
in and put anything on the table for today, you're welcome to.

374
00:21:20,680 --> 00:21:26,680
Basically we're talking about lab tests, cannabis data, and specifically I

375
00:21:26,680 --> 00:21:35,680
have a big data set from Michigan to share with you today.

376
00:21:35,680 --> 00:21:38,680
And you're also welcome to just listen in.

377
00:21:38,680 --> 00:21:42,680
So just interrupt forcefully if you want to at any point.

378
00:21:42,680 --> 00:21:47,680
But Candice, do you have anything you want to put on the table for today?

379
00:21:47,680 --> 00:21:48,680
I don't have anything.

380
00:21:48,680 --> 00:21:50,680
I think this is great, though.

381
00:21:50,680 --> 00:21:56,680
Being able to pick a product based on chemical profile versus somebody

382
00:21:56,680 --> 00:22:00,680
coming up with strain names would be a great future for patients and

383
00:22:00,680 --> 00:22:03,680
consumers.

384
00:22:03,680 --> 00:22:04,680
Yeah, exactly.

385
00:22:04,680 --> 00:22:09,680
And I think that it harks back to what's the point of all of this?

386
00:22:09,680 --> 00:22:11,680
Why are we on this whole rabbit?

387
00:22:11,680 --> 00:22:14,680
Why are we down this rabbit hole in the first place?

388
00:22:14,680 --> 00:22:19,680
Well, what data do we have?

389
00:22:19,680 --> 00:22:23,680
We have often, like we said, just the strain name.

390
00:22:23,680 --> 00:22:28,680
And if you go to the store, you're going to see strain names and the THC

391
00:22:28,680 --> 00:22:29,680
numbers.

392
00:22:29,680 --> 00:22:34,680
But as we've mentioned, what's more important and what we think is the

393
00:22:34,680 --> 00:22:39,680
actual causal effect, right, it's not that the product was named Blue

394
00:22:39,680 --> 00:22:43,680
Dream that it's having a certain effect, but it's actually the chemicals

395
00:22:43,680 --> 00:22:44,680
you're consuming.

396
00:22:44,680 --> 00:22:49,680
So that's basically what we're after.

397
00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:56,680
And as always, we think from my economics training or schooling that

398
00:22:56,680 --> 00:23:03,680
the better information consumers have, then they'll be able to make better

399
00:23:03,680 --> 00:23:04,680
decisions.

400
00:23:04,680 --> 00:23:13,680
And on average, they'll live happier lives.

401
00:23:13,680 --> 00:23:14,680
So that's all.

402
00:23:14,680 --> 00:23:19,680
And so that's why Copy Left Cultivores, Caleb, you're doing a really good

403
00:23:19,680 --> 00:23:24,680
deed is by simply getting that information out there.

404
00:23:24,680 --> 00:23:27,680
You should be helping people make better decisions, right?

405
00:23:27,680 --> 00:23:32,680
Not everybody is going to look at the data, but the ones that are interested,

406
00:23:32,680 --> 00:23:37,680
they should be able to look at the data if they want to.

407
00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:46,680
But I didn't do the best job saying the mission, but hopefully you all have

408
00:23:46,680 --> 00:23:50,680
your own missions as well, and this is in accordance with them.

409
00:23:50,680 --> 00:23:57,680
But on that note, instead of me just being long-winded and speaking, do you

410
00:23:57,680 --> 00:24:00,680
want to actually see the data we have here?

411
00:24:00,680 --> 00:24:03,680
So that could be quite fun.

412
00:24:03,680 --> 00:24:07,680
So let me share my screen with you.

413
00:24:07,680 --> 00:24:11,680
So instead of just, right, that's what's fun here is instead of just talk,

414
00:24:11,680 --> 00:24:15,680
talk, talk, we can actually look at the data.

415
00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:25,680
So last week, we were fortunate enough to be able to see the data from

416
00:24:25,680 --> 00:24:26,680
Massachusetts.

417
00:24:26,680 --> 00:24:34,680
And today we're fortunate to be able to see the total THC numbers for these

418
00:24:34,680 --> 00:24:38,680
products in Michigan.

419
00:24:38,680 --> 00:24:45,680
And we've got a time range here dating from, here I'll print it out here in

420
00:24:45,680 --> 00:24:47,680
one second.

421
00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:57,680
It's roughly the third quarter of 2020 through the end of 2022.

422
00:24:57,680 --> 00:25:03,680
Don't have a ton of data, but we basically have an indicator if it's

423
00:25:03,680 --> 00:25:05,680
medical or adult use.

424
00:25:05,680 --> 00:25:09,680
We know which lab tested it.

425
00:25:09,680 --> 00:25:12,680
Everything I believe is marked.

426
00:25:12,680 --> 00:25:15,680
Actually, there's various types of categories.

427
00:25:15,680 --> 00:25:21,680
And so this is in fact a place for further data cleaning if any of you all

428
00:25:21,680 --> 00:25:23,680
are interested.

429
00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:25,680
But...

430
00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:27,680
I apologize, do you mind if I interrupt really quick?

431
00:25:27,680 --> 00:25:29,680
Please.

432
00:25:29,680 --> 00:25:31,680
So two quick things.

433
00:25:31,680 --> 00:25:33,680
I actually have to jump off in a minute.

434
00:25:33,680 --> 00:25:35,680
I will be looking for this video later.

435
00:25:35,680 --> 00:25:44,680
And just so you're aware, total THC in Michigan is defined as.877 times THCA

436
00:25:44,680 --> 00:25:48,680
plus delta 9THC plus delta 8THC.

437
00:25:48,680 --> 00:25:51,680
Just so that when you compare it to other states, that's how...

438
00:25:51,680 --> 00:25:53,680
Can you say that one more time, please?

439
00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:59,680
So it's decarboxylated THCA plus delta 9THC plus delta 8THC.

440
00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:02,680
Okay, so it also has delta 8THC.

441
00:26:02,680 --> 00:26:04,680
But that's so rare that it shouldn't make any difference.

442
00:26:04,680 --> 00:26:10,680
Yeah, from my understanding, that one was usually less than.1% when we

443
00:26:10,680 --> 00:26:12,680
observed it.

444
00:26:12,680 --> 00:26:15,680
So that will buys the numbers up.

445
00:26:15,680 --> 00:26:19,680
But just a hair.

446
00:26:19,680 --> 00:26:21,680
But that's a really good note.

447
00:26:21,680 --> 00:26:29,680
And that's why as a data scientist, it's worthwhile to wear many caps.

448
00:26:29,680 --> 00:26:33,680
And one of the caps you want to wear is historian slash...

449
00:26:33,680 --> 00:26:35,680
Well, you are a researcher.

450
00:26:35,680 --> 00:26:40,680
But you want to be digging through all the testing regulations and figure out

451
00:26:40,680 --> 00:26:44,680
things like that because they can have big implications.

452
00:26:44,680 --> 00:26:46,680
But good find, Yasha.

453
00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:48,680
But I'll move quick here.

454
00:26:48,680 --> 00:26:54,680
But long story short, we've got data from the end of June 2020.

455
00:26:54,680 --> 00:27:00,680
And then the last observation was the beginning of 2023.

456
00:27:00,680 --> 00:27:04,680
So I'll start limiting the time range further along.

457
00:27:04,680 --> 00:27:11,680
But real quick, really just going to focus on, of course, total THC today.

458
00:27:11,680 --> 00:27:15,680
So I'll leave all the cool terpenes to Caleb.

459
00:27:15,680 --> 00:27:20,680
But what can we do with this limited number of data points?

460
00:27:20,680 --> 00:27:24,680
So once again, I think we can go pretty far with this.

461
00:27:24,680 --> 00:27:27,680
So what do we have here?

462
00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:34,680
We had 80,000 samples that were tested in this time range.

463
00:27:34,680 --> 00:27:38,680
And let's just start visualizing them.

464
00:27:38,680 --> 00:27:41,680
So just have tons of visualizations for you today.

465
00:27:41,680 --> 00:27:45,680
So we'll just start going through them one by one.

466
00:27:45,680 --> 00:27:53,680
Whatever reason, the plotting doesn't take my style right away.

467
00:27:53,680 --> 00:28:03,680
So here's where we were in 2020 with about a thousand tests per month.

468
00:28:03,680 --> 00:28:12,680
And you notice while it has been turbulent times in the cannabis industry in Michigan,

469
00:28:12,680 --> 00:28:21,680
Michigan has seen what I would say is substantial growth over the past two and a half years.

470
00:28:21,680 --> 00:28:25,680
And we still need to know what's going on this year.

471
00:28:25,680 --> 00:28:27,680
It's 2023.

472
00:28:27,680 --> 00:28:30,680
But we'll see that data when the time comes.

473
00:28:30,680 --> 00:28:34,680
But this is what you want to see in a market.

474
00:28:34,680 --> 00:28:37,680
This is, that's growth.

475
00:28:37,680 --> 00:28:45,680
If you're a lab in Michigan, that's a lot of revenue for you.

476
00:28:45,680 --> 00:28:56,680
And then as always, we say that the number of tests is essentially a proxy for the supply.

477
00:28:56,680 --> 00:29:04,680
Once again, it's an imperfect estimate because batch sizes may be changing.

478
00:29:04,680 --> 00:29:10,680
Maybe they're still producing the same amount of cannabis, but they're just making it in smaller batches.

479
00:29:10,680 --> 00:29:20,680
But if you go under the assumption that batch size is staying the same during this time period,

480
00:29:20,680 --> 00:29:26,680
then you would think, OK, tests are growing.

481
00:29:26,680 --> 00:29:36,680
Ruth had mentioned medical cannabis, and we can actually break this into two pieces here.

482
00:29:36,680 --> 00:29:40,680
The adult use versus the medical.

483
00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:47,680
And I'll let you all make your own interpretations of this.

484
00:29:47,680 --> 00:30:00,680
But what I interpret this is, right, they're both around 500 tests per month in the beginning.

485
00:30:00,680 --> 00:30:11,680
And I think maybe the medical and adult use, right, combined were just filling the entire supply of Michigan.

486
00:30:11,680 --> 00:30:15,680
And maybe there was kind of some overlap.

487
00:30:15,680 --> 00:30:19,680
Maybe some adult use consumers were getting medical.

488
00:30:19,680 --> 00:30:25,680
Maybe some medical consumers were getting adult use, maybe a little bit of crossover.

489
00:30:25,680 --> 00:30:36,680
And so I think what you see is you see the rise of adult, the rise in the market, and that's mostly going to adult use.

490
00:30:36,680 --> 00:30:48,680
And it looks to me like maybe the people that there were some people buying medical, and they may have transitioned to buying adult use.

491
00:30:48,680 --> 00:31:01,680
But it looks like there's, you know, may kind of reach almost like a steady state there of, you know, around 500 or so medical tests per month.

492
00:31:01,680 --> 00:31:10,680
So that's kind of my interpretation of this is there is basically like a baseline medical community.

493
00:31:10,680 --> 00:31:24,680
But maybe, you know, in the early days, you know, maybe some people were seeking adult use, but they were classified as medical.

494
00:31:24,680 --> 00:31:31,680
So that's my interpretation of it. Do any of you want to chime in on your thoughts?

495
00:31:31,680 --> 00:31:43,680
Yeah, I. Yeah, you see this exact same pattern in every state that opens up. And this is a little misleading because in every state you have medical comes first.

496
00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:50,680
Medical predates for usually a couple of years and medical use takes off.

497
00:31:50,680 --> 00:31:58,680
And then as soon as rec use comes in, medical use starts to level off and then it declines and it essentially dies.

498
00:31:58,680 --> 00:32:07,680
And the adult use ends up essentially killing off medical because all the focus and resource resources switch away from medical.

499
00:32:07,680 --> 00:32:14,680
And it's very unfortunate. But it's I mean, it's the reality.

500
00:32:14,680 --> 00:32:19,680
And what's interesting here is I have exact same graphs on sales and it looks identical.

501
00:32:19,680 --> 00:32:30,680
So in this case, yes, the tests are very good proxy for total revenues. But again, you see this exact same picture in every state.

502
00:32:30,680 --> 00:32:37,680
Good, good point. I would just like to say, you know, I wouldn't count the medical market out yet.

503
00:32:37,680 --> 00:32:45,680
You know, it's maybe still about, you know, a fifth to a quarter the size of the adult use market.

504
00:32:45,680 --> 00:32:52,680
So anything that large is non negligible. And this is actually I guess more than 500.

505
00:32:52,680 --> 00:33:03,680
It's between 500 and a thousand. But Ruth, unfortunately, I think you do speak some truth in that you're right.

506
00:33:03,680 --> 00:33:15,680
If, say, you did get into business to produce medical cannabis, you know, that would be, you know, taking taking a hit.

507
00:33:15,680 --> 00:33:31,680
But. But yes, I went I'm going to have to research more about the licensing, because I wonder, is it possible for a license to produce both medical and adult use cannabis?

508
00:33:31,680 --> 00:33:39,680
Or do you have to produce specifically for one type that varies by state and the laws have changed over time.

509
00:33:39,680 --> 00:33:47,680
And early on, they said to growers, you have to you have to designate which plants are medical and which are recreational.

510
00:33:47,680 --> 00:33:53,680
And they kept them separate throughout the pipeline. So the supply chain. But I think there's intermingling.

511
00:33:53,680 --> 00:34:04,680
You also have differences by state with big implications. And for example, in California, what you see is the people involved in medical tend to do everything medical.

512
00:34:04,680 --> 00:34:09,680
And they're very different companies in organizations from people involved in rec.

513
00:34:09,680 --> 00:34:21,680
However, in other states, most other states, as I said, you start off with medical and the first licensees for medical and then the medical licensees get priority when they open up to adult use.

514
00:34:21,680 --> 00:34:27,680
So the medical licensees are also adult use growers and dispensers.

515
00:34:27,680 --> 00:34:37,680
And this is kind of creating a problem because a new state, you have a lot of organizations go in there and the money is in adult use and they don't really care about medical.

516
00:34:37,680 --> 00:34:42,680
But they go in at medical in order to get the priority for when they open up to adult use.

517
00:34:42,680 --> 00:34:45,680
There's a huge amount of gaming going on.

518
00:34:45,680 --> 00:34:57,680
But there's there's huge implications for, as I said, for resources available for medical users and adult use users and essentially all the money is in adult use.

519
00:34:57,680 --> 00:35:02,680
So the resources very quickly get focused and shift over to adult use.

520
00:35:02,680 --> 00:35:21,680
And one last thing is I believe that when they did the Booker Schumer Booker Schumer Weiman proposal or whatever, this was kind of an iteration back on what the national bill for for for legalizing cannabis federally looked like.

521
00:35:21,680 --> 00:35:28,680
My understanding is that whole bill, however long it was, didn't include the word patient once.

522
00:35:28,680 --> 00:35:32,680
So even federal government isn't really focused on that.

523
00:35:32,680 --> 00:35:41,680
And my belief is that all medical use is going to end up being pushed into the pharma industry and the pharma model, which personally I'm no fan of.

524
00:35:41,680 --> 00:35:44,680
But I think that's where it's going.

525
00:35:44,680 --> 00:35:52,680
It's definitely something that's going to have to be addressed at some point, Ruth, because, as you pointed out, this has big implications.

526
00:35:52,680 --> 00:36:00,680
Because you're kind of like yo yoing around these medical patients and consumers.

527
00:36:00,680 --> 00:36:16,680
The problem is that if you look at and this would be a very interesting analysis is if you go and if you look at all the COAs that are labeled for medical and that are labeled for adult use and you compare them, the adult the adult use is focused on high THC cannabis.

528
00:36:16,680 --> 00:36:25,680
But the medical have much more variety and there's much lower THC and there's higher ratios of CBD to THC.

529
00:36:25,680 --> 00:36:36,680
And there's just and so the problem is, is when you get pushed over to adult use, you lose all that variety that the medical users need in order to address a particular conditions.

530
00:36:36,680 --> 00:36:46,680
Actually, let's go off-roading because Ruth, you just raised the most one of the most critical, one of the most interesting things.

531
00:36:46,680 --> 00:36:58,680
So I'll have to maybe circle back for some of this analysis on on labs for for Yasha's sake because I'm sure Yasha will find this interesting.

532
00:36:58,680 --> 00:37:02,680
But actually, Ruth, we can once again.

533
00:37:02,680 --> 00:37:07,680
It's just a one hour meetup after all, so we can only get so far.

534
00:37:07,680 --> 00:37:10,680
So, you know, don't take my analysis as gospel.

535
00:37:10,680 --> 00:37:14,680
But what we can do is.

536
00:37:14,680 --> 00:37:22,680
Chalk out how you could actually begin to analyze that because remember, we've got strain data here.

537
00:37:22,680 --> 00:37:29,680
We have total THC here and we have medical classification.

538
00:37:29,680 --> 00:37:35,680
So we can see.

539
00:37:35,680 --> 00:37:42,680
Are there, you know, more or less medical strains, maybe relative to the number of tests.

540
00:37:42,680 --> 00:37:46,680
So we talked about diversity in strains.

541
00:37:46,680 --> 00:37:49,680
Well, it could vary between medical and adult use.

542
00:37:49,680 --> 00:37:54,680
And then, too, we can check out the total THC numbers.

543
00:37:54,680 --> 00:37:57,680
Actually, let's do that right now.

544
00:37:57,680 --> 00:38:09,680
So so first, before we get into the conditionals, here's just the unconditional average THC.

545
00:38:09,680 --> 00:38:16,680
And remember, Yasha's point that this includes Delta eight to.

546
00:38:16,680 --> 00:38:27,680
OK, so let's put the medical on the side burner for now, but this is we'll do some off roading because it's more fun anyways.

547
00:38:27,680 --> 00:38:30,680
But here's the total THC. Cool.

548
00:38:30,680 --> 00:38:33,680
We've seen that distribution before.

549
00:38:33,680 --> 00:38:42,680
And just the only note is the 99th percentile is actually similar to what we observed in Massachusetts.

550
00:38:42,680 --> 00:38:48,680
The mean actually may be similar to but maybe slightly higher.

551
00:38:48,680 --> 00:38:55,680
And actually, this is just the.

552
00:38:55,680 --> 00:39:07,680
When the first condition we've added, but here's the distributions between medical THC and adult use THC.

553
00:39:07,680 --> 00:39:17,680
And if you look at it's actually it's actually kind of interesting if we look at year by year.

554
00:39:17,680 --> 00:39:20,680
But this this one is for twenty twenty two.

555
00:39:20,680 --> 00:39:30,680
And so you can actually do a test to see if they're statistically different.

556
00:39:30,680 --> 00:39:40,680
But I think it's just that we have just a giant sample size, so it's maybe easy to see the conclude that things are different.

557
00:39:40,680 --> 00:39:48,680
But it could be that the difference may not actually be that much.

558
00:39:48,680 --> 00:39:55,680
Can you get it? Can you get a count? And also, can you do CBD instead of THC?

559
00:39:55,680 --> 00:40:02,680
We don't actually have CBD here, unfortunately.

560
00:40:02,680 --> 00:40:05,680
I wonder if we could do that one in Washington.

561
00:40:05,680 --> 00:40:10,680
But here I'll get you the count for them real quick.

562
00:40:10,680 --> 00:40:23,680
I think we have ten thousand medical samples and thirty three thousand adult use samples in twenty twenty two.

563
00:40:23,680 --> 00:40:26,680
That's a decent percentage for the medical.

564
00:40:26,680 --> 00:40:30,680
So I'm surprised that they're that close.

565
00:40:30,680 --> 00:40:33,680
Well, Michigan's are super interesting market.

566
00:40:33,680 --> 00:40:39,680
Michigan's went a mark to this phrase gets used a lot these days that people are sleeping on something.

567
00:40:39,680 --> 00:40:48,680
Well, people were sleeping on Michigan in the sense that it's not your traditional East Coast market.

568
00:40:48,680 --> 00:40:52,680
And it's not your traditional West Coast market either.

569
00:40:52,680 --> 00:41:02,680
Like the the West Coast markets like California, Oregon, Washington and Colorado.

570
00:41:02,680 --> 00:41:09,680
I mean, I think those markets are quite mature at this stage.

571
00:41:09,680 --> 00:41:19,680
And you kind of saw like some pretty like like there are a lot of companies there, but there's definitely some big, big players there.

572
00:41:19,680 --> 00:41:27,680
And then the East Coast is way as much different because the story there is just regulations.

573
00:41:27,680 --> 00:41:34,680
Right. Like from my understanding, really competitive, maybe to get a license like maybe in Massachusetts.

574
00:41:34,680 --> 00:41:38,680
Super difficult to get a license in Florida.

575
00:41:38,680 --> 00:41:48,680
And then, you know, the difference between the left coast and the right coast, the east and west, the West Coast is generally unintegrated.

576
00:41:48,680 --> 00:41:51,680
You're allowed to integrate, but you're not required.

577
00:41:51,680 --> 00:41:56,680
And in almost every case on the East Coast, you're required to be vertically integrated.

578
00:41:56,680 --> 00:42:07,680
So on the on the West in Colorado, California, Oregon, Washington, Michigan, you have hundreds or thousands of licensees.

579
00:42:07,680 --> 00:42:17,680
Whereas in the East, you only have tens of licensees because you you end up with a few large companies because they're they're required to be vertically integrated.

580
00:42:17,680 --> 00:42:23,680
And that creates a hugely different dynamic in all respects.

581
00:42:23,680 --> 00:42:30,680
And exactly. And then so Michigan just didn't fit either of those models.

582
00:42:30,680 --> 00:42:40,680
In fact, its history goes back to I think they originally there was a lot of small time growers who were maybe were doing mostly medical.

583
00:42:40,680 --> 00:42:49,680
From my understanding, there was like just a lot of medical plots, you know, like, you know, the hundred hundred plants or what have you.

584
00:42:49,680 --> 00:42:59,680
So I think. I think your medical thing was there first in Michigan, and it's had a long history.

585
00:42:59,680 --> 00:43:02,680
So it's not like people there are inexperienced.

586
00:43:02,680 --> 00:43:12,680
So you have a bunch of highly experienced growers that were starting at a lot of small businesses.

587
00:43:12,680 --> 00:43:21,680
And actually now, now is a good time to show this to like, for example, like, look at the number of labs in Michigan.

588
00:43:21,680 --> 00:43:32,680
Like, there's there's 24 labs in Michigan, and it's just not really, of course, like they're dominated by a couple of them.

589
00:43:32,680 --> 00:43:42,680
But, you know, like I think in Washington, we're down, you know, there's maybe fewer than 10 labs now.

590
00:43:42,680 --> 00:43:52,680
So it's like I said, me included, I was just sleeping on Michigan. They just.

591
00:43:52,680 --> 00:43:59,680
It's a I mean, we saw it earlier with the the this chart here with the rise in adult use.

592
00:43:59,680 --> 00:44:05,680
It's a pretty it's a pretty vibrant market there.

593
00:44:05,680 --> 00:44:17,680
And for medical, too. So it's a long story short. Don't don't discount the market in Michigan.

594
00:44:17,680 --> 00:44:23,680
OK, so where were we though? Oh, yeah, there is.

595
00:44:23,680 --> 00:44:30,680
Let's get back to the strains instead of just talking so highly about Michigan.

596
00:44:30,680 --> 00:44:39,680
OK, so we're looking at the THC. We noticed that there may or may not be a difference between THC with adult use in medical.

597
00:44:39,680 --> 00:44:48,680
And my hypothesis there is maybe still either the overlap or here is actually my better my better hypothesis.

598
00:44:48,680 --> 00:44:54,680
The labs don't know how to handle medical. Right.

599
00:44:54,680 --> 00:45:03,680
So it's you know, they're they're basically just the labs, I think, are just testing maybe everything the same.

600
00:45:03,680 --> 00:45:08,680
But actually, that's not a really good, good hypothesis.

601
00:45:08,680 --> 00:45:15,680
I just realized because the medical growers would maybe select lower THC varieties.

602
00:45:15,680 --> 00:45:28,680
But OK, I don't know. That wasn't a very good idea. So maybe I'll move on to the next chart here unless anyone else has any thoughts, comments, questions.

603
00:45:28,680 --> 00:45:36,680
But here's here's just one chart that would just be pertinent to show once again.

604
00:45:36,680 --> 00:45:45,680
This is this is something that's come up a lot in prior meetups, so I don't want to spend too, too much time on it other than then pointed out.

605
00:45:45,680 --> 00:45:48,680
And then I kind of want to move on to the strains.

606
00:45:48,680 --> 00:45:56,680
But just, you know, here's just the average THC in Michigan around the 21 percent.

607
00:45:56,680 --> 00:46:06,680
And you see some labs testing higher than average and some labs actually testing much lower than average.

608
00:46:06,680 --> 00:46:11,680
And I actually is left for there's left for.

609
00:46:11,680 --> 00:46:18,680
So basically, I just wanted to make one comment here is basically if you look at this chart here.

610
00:46:18,680 --> 00:46:26,680
So keep in mind. So basically look at these two charts side by side.

611
00:46:26,680 --> 00:46:34,680
So you've got the average THC by lab and then you have the total number of lab tests.

612
00:46:34,680 --> 00:46:48,680
And so what you see here is. You know, lab lab one and lab nine, they do have large market shares, you know, and they are testing quite above average.

613
00:46:48,680 --> 00:47:01,680
But what's interesting is lab for you know, lab for has a large market share in their testing, you know, just about average.

614
00:47:01,680 --> 00:47:16,680
So basically, my comment there is there may be just a lot of cultivators out there who just truly want a good measure of their products.

615
00:47:16,680 --> 00:47:21,680
You know, they're just like, OK, like, you know, enough is enough of the high THC numbers.

616
00:47:21,680 --> 00:47:26,680
I actually just want like a good measure of what I'm growing.

617
00:47:26,680 --> 00:47:34,680
So so I just kind of wanted to point that out that this one lab has pretty much.

618
00:47:34,680 --> 00:47:40,680
Like their average pretty much matches the average in the market.

619
00:47:40,680 --> 00:47:44,680
And remember what we were saying about sort of the law of large numbers.

620
00:47:44,680 --> 00:47:50,680
And this is like the rule about the consensus is let a bunch of people measure something.

621
00:47:50,680 --> 00:47:56,680
And then the average is kind of close to the true average.

622
00:47:56,680 --> 00:48:11,680
So so basically, in my opinion, you know, the closer you are to this red line, which could be biased, then, you know, the closer you are to being accurate.

623
00:48:11,680 --> 00:48:22,680
And so I don't know, just wanted to to hark on a good job for lab for for being close to accurate and have a high market share.

624
00:48:22,680 --> 00:48:37,680
So, anywho, back to the strains, though, because that's sort of the more fun topic, because both Caleb and Ruth, you had pertinent questions and statistics that you're after there.

625
00:48:37,680 --> 00:48:42,680
OK, Caleb, this is where.

626
00:48:42,680 --> 00:48:51,680
I asked chat GPT to write me a quick function, but this is just to get the job done for today.

627
00:48:51,680 --> 00:48:55,680
This is in no way a substitute for what you're doing.

628
00:48:55,680 --> 00:49:04,680
So basically what the problem here is, is if we look at the product name.

629
00:49:04,680 --> 00:49:18,680
It is wild. You know, you've got Buds by Sensei Star, you know, triangle, mints, Buds.

630
00:49:18,680 --> 00:49:27,680
This one's got underscores in it. 100 GMO, crash or bulk flower.

631
00:49:27,680 --> 00:49:44,680
Ideally, we could identify the strain name out of this. Right. This is GMO, crash or probably, you know, this one's probably pineapple express.

632
00:49:44,680 --> 00:49:56,680
So on and so forth. And it looks like I even made a mistake here because I think our kid archive is on our list, but it looks like this one's actually Mac Bang.

633
00:49:56,680 --> 00:50:08,680
So long story short is just getting the strain name out of the product name is a non-trivial task.

634
00:50:08,680 --> 00:50:27,680
And so this function will imperfectly do work for today, but we've we've had whole meetups in the past talking about how how in the world are we going to get these strain names?

635
00:50:27,680 --> 00:50:43,680
Because, Caleb, that's kind of the heart of this is right. You're sourcing like known strain names, but there could be unknown strains that are out there that you can identify.

636
00:50:43,680 --> 00:50:57,680
But you know, you may have to identify them from data like this, which is, you know, an absolute mess. You know, what if nobody's documented GMO skittles before?

637
00:50:57,680 --> 00:51:08,680
Like, why would we want to leave that undocumented just because it's got a little bit of noise in the product name?

638
00:51:08,680 --> 00:51:22,680
So you all move quick since we're really have so much time. OK, so long story short, going to just add the the strain name and it's going to be imperfect here.

639
00:51:22,680 --> 00:51:38,680
But you can see that this is at least better than it was. So dinosaur food. That's a cool one. Never heard of that strain before. Oreos, Groundhog Day.

640
00:51:38,680 --> 00:51:53,680
So so this is just a way that we can start accumulating strain names because that's a challenge we've had is just finding like an original way to get strain names.

641
00:51:53,680 --> 00:51:59,680
But why why are we even doing this? Well, check this out.

642
00:51:59,680 --> 00:52:08,680
Once again, this is going to be imperfect, but you can start to just count the number of strains.

643
00:52:08,680 --> 00:52:15,680
And these are some of the classic strains that we see over and over again. Right.

644
00:52:15,680 --> 00:52:21,680
Wedding cake. Just I don't know what it is about it.

645
00:52:21,680 --> 00:52:29,680
I think it must just be really easy to grow, but it must also be a popular seller.

646
00:52:29,680 --> 00:52:35,680
So, Caleb, this is why I was saying that if you were able to augment your terpene data.

647
00:52:35,680 --> 00:52:46,680
Like that's what you could try to explain. Like, why are these the top strains in Michigan?

648
00:52:46,680 --> 00:52:55,680
Once again, as in like I'm going to use strains in quotation marks because, you know, what you know, what is a strain, so to speak.

649
00:52:55,680 --> 00:53:01,680
Great. See, here's the archive, which I think is actually the Mac.

650
00:53:01,680 --> 00:53:04,680
So long story short.

651
00:53:04,680 --> 00:53:18,680
This is what's growing. And here's where we can get really cool with it and maybe even try to go off road real quick.

652
00:53:18,680 --> 00:53:21,680
Bye.

653
00:53:21,680 --> 00:53:29,680
Here, in fact, while I'm talking about this chart, I'll show you basically how I code these days.

654
00:53:29,680 --> 00:53:35,680
So basically how I code these days is right. I've got it to do here.

655
00:53:35,680 --> 00:53:41,680
We want to look at the, you know, adult use versus medical top strains.

656
00:53:41,680 --> 00:53:49,680
So, you know, theoretically, I could just don't let me bore you to death with this.

657
00:53:49,680 --> 00:54:11,680
But basically, I just go to chat GPT and I would just say something like, can you visualize the top or the average brutal THC by top strains for medical products versus adult.

658
00:54:11,680 --> 00:54:16,680
Let you do medical products for now.

659
00:54:16,680 --> 00:54:24,680
So chat GPT will be working on this one, and then we'll see how close they how close they get.

660
00:54:24,680 --> 00:54:26,680
So long story short.

661
00:54:26,680 --> 00:54:34,680
Here are, you know, the top strains in Michigan.

662
00:54:34,680 --> 00:54:42,680
And the one thing I would like to point out to you is.

663
00:54:42,680 --> 00:54:49,680
You do see some strains of course, you know, testing well above average.

664
00:54:49,680 --> 00:54:55,680
Right. So, you know, cush mints GMO.

665
00:54:55,680 --> 00:55:02,680
Even wedding cake, you know, they're, they're probably significantly above average.

666
00:55:02,680 --> 00:55:18,680
But what's, what's cool is you actually see some here like like remember we talked about blue dream earlier, you do see some strains that are, I mean blue dream is significantly.

667
00:55:18,680 --> 00:55:22,680
Probably statistically below average.

668
00:55:22,680 --> 00:55:38,680
But, you know, it's a good two and a half percentage points, actually maybe even maybe even maybe couldn't be close to 3%. Oh yeah, so the average is about 21 and a half percent.

669
00:55:38,680 --> 00:55:53,680
So it's almost 4% lower in average total THC on average than the other strains and an orange creamsicle pure Michigan.

670
00:55:53,680 --> 00:56:01,680
And this one Franklin fields are also all, you know, a good bit below average.

671
00:56:01,680 --> 00:56:10,680
So, this is maybe an interesting signal that

672
00:56:10,680 --> 00:56:29,680
total THC may not be all there is to the picture. Right. If it was that no one would ever pick blue dream. Right. Blue dream made it on to the top 20, despite having a below average total THC.

673
00:56:29,680 --> 00:56:41,680
So this is Caleb, this is an opportunity for you is why is blue dream a top seller.

674
00:56:41,680 --> 00:56:50,680
People would love to know why, you know, why is pure Michigan, a top seller.

675
00:56:50,680 --> 00:57:01,680
This is what people are trying to figure out right everybody's getting plants in the ground. They want to know what plants are going to be successful.

676
00:57:01,680 --> 00:57:08,680
You know and, you know, consumers to rate.

677
00:57:08,680 --> 00:57:13,680
You know, it's fun to know what all the different strains there are in the market.

678
00:57:13,680 --> 00:57:22,680
Okay, so real quick. Let's just see real quick if Chachi PT was able to make any

679
00:57:22,680 --> 00:57:31,680
wasn't a they weren't able to do it for us. So let's see if real quick, if you have just a quick five minutes to add.

680
00:57:31,680 --> 00:57:46,680
I promised we'd go off road. So let's see if we can't find the top 20 medical strains and their average THC.

681
00:57:46,680 --> 00:58:03,680
Okay, so we're going to need to do something like this. But first, we want to make sure that we're only getting medical products.

682
00:58:03,680 --> 00:58:15,680
So, so, so let's just try this. So, and once again, when you go off road, you know, we may spin our tires, but it may work out.

683
00:58:15,680 --> 00:58:21,680
So let's see medical.

684
00:58:21,680 --> 00:58:28,680
We'll just call this medical. So let's just see if this works.

685
00:58:28,680 --> 00:58:36,680
Okay, so we have 8000 strains. Let's just take a look at this and just see what's going on with this.

686
00:58:36,680 --> 00:58:40,680
Okay, so we've got products here.

687
00:58:40,680 --> 00:58:52,680
Got the strain name. Okay, we should just be able to more or less just copy and paste the, the rest of this code.

688
00:58:52,680 --> 00:59:04,680
And then we can, you know, change it to medical, and then this should more or less work. And we did it without Chachi PT. Okay, so this is medical here.

689
00:59:04,680 --> 00:59:10,680
And then basically, I'm just replacing some sample with medical.

690
00:59:10,680 --> 00:59:21,680
And then that should do the trick. So over and then I'll just change some of the titles here. So overall medical, medical,

691
00:59:21,680 --> 00:59:35,680
overall 99 percentile medical THC, average to the top 20 medical strains.

692
00:59:35,680 --> 00:59:54,680
And then medical, the top 20 medical. Okay, and there we have it. We've hopefully answered a brand new question here.

693
00:59:54,680 --> 01:00:05,680
Oh, no.

694
01:00:05,680 --> 01:00:17,680
The strain counts as this last thing I need.

695
01:00:17,680 --> 01:00:24,680
Okay, one second. We may be able to do this.

696
01:00:24,680 --> 01:00:30,680
I would love to be able to do this for you. Sorry if I'm boring you.

697
01:00:30,680 --> 01:00:33,680
Cross our fingers.

698
01:00:33,680 --> 01:00:46,680
And we now know the top 20. Look, I misspelled it. So we'll just bear with that for the time being.

699
01:00:46,680 --> 01:00:55,680
So check this out. Here are the top 20 medical strains.

700
01:00:55,680 --> 01:01:00,680
And check this out.

701
01:01:00,680 --> 01:01:25,680
Here, Ruth, you may be interested in this in Caleb to walk, you know, what could potentially explain the difference between the why medical patients are favoring certain strains over why adult use patients are favoring certain strains.

702
01:01:25,680 --> 01:01:34,680
You see wedding cake and gorilla glue still high on the chart.

703
01:01:34,680 --> 01:01:42,680
Orange creamsicle has gone way up. Blue Dream has moved its rank up.

704
01:01:42,680 --> 01:01:58,680
And you see this, these two other strains that are below average THC Russian snow and batched, which I've got a feeling I botched that strain name.

705
01:01:58,680 --> 01:02:09,680
So that's, that's wild. And then check this out. You also see these two strains. The kush mints was on the top 20 before.

706
01:02:09,680 --> 01:02:27,680
But check this one out. You now have the S, the S the, what's it called SFV OG, the San Fernando Valley OG testing at a whopping 27% total THC.

707
01:02:27,680 --> 01:02:33,680
So that's, that's wild right there.

708
01:02:33,680 --> 01:02:53,680
But, but I, I may have gone a little over and want to be respectful of all of everybody's time. So I may go ahead and stop presenting, but we'd love to, to get any of your thoughts there.

709
01:02:53,680 --> 01:03:06,680
Did you find this analysis interesting? Was there anything that comes to mind? Do you see any fruitful avenues for further research? Love to get your input real quick.

710
01:03:06,680 --> 01:03:15,680
If anyone wants to chime in.

711
01:03:15,680 --> 01:03:31,680
You're looking at THC and I agree that's important, but there's other aspects there too. And so I think that if you were to say, well, why are these so popular? You need to dig past THC and that would probably explain it.

712
01:03:31,680 --> 01:03:35,680
Help explain it.

713
01:03:35,680 --> 01:03:48,680
Yeah, I've had similar thoughts with that too. That was kind of where I was going is it's a really nuanced question. Right. And so there's a lot of factors and then there's the factors that are like quantifiable.

714
01:03:48,680 --> 01:04:03,680
And then there are some pretty non quantifiable or hard to quantify elements like social elements. Right. We've got like, I did Lil Wayne talk about gelato in a song. Right. I mean, that just like totally skews everything.

715
01:04:03,680 --> 01:04:23,680
So there's a lot of layers to that question, but I like the avenue. I also think price, if we could get metric price data from that same timeframe, and then ratio the strains based on the average price in that timeframe, we would get a lot of great information on whether consumers were simply making an economics decision.

716
01:04:23,680 --> 01:04:30,680
And those were like easy to produce and market affordable strands.

717
01:04:30,680 --> 01:04:47,680
I love the ideas and this is what brilliant statisticians have fun at lunch talking about. And what you're basically talking about is, what do we pack into X, you know, what's our explanatory variable.

718
01:04:47,680 --> 01:04:56,680
We're trying to explain, in this case is just number of tests. And that's our proxy for popularity.

719
01:04:56,680 --> 01:05:08,680
How do we explain that right now are only explanatory variables THC doesn't seem like that's all there is to the picture.

720
01:05:08,680 --> 01:05:14,680
This is why I would love to, you know, augment the average terpene value see if there was matter.

721
01:05:14,680 --> 01:05:17,680
I love Caleb you had the idea.

722
01:05:17,680 --> 01:05:20,680
Add price.

723
01:05:20,680 --> 01:05:26,680
If I was an economist I should be. I should have thought of that one.

724
01:05:26,680 --> 01:05:31,680
Right. Everything's a function of price.

725
01:05:31,680 --> 01:05:43,680
Well, actually, price factors in, but actually, just put your that you see why I'm not an economist, but the long story short.

726
01:05:43,680 --> 01:05:58,680
Oh yeah, then the final point you had, what if a famous celebrity talked about it, and that's basically that is an explanatory variable, but it's how would you quantify that.

727
01:05:58,680 --> 01:06:02,680
So that's, that's kind of what you could.

728
01:06:02,680 --> 01:06:20,680
Maybe have fun about it right. You could actually maybe think about some way you could actually quantify that, like you could just have a counter like how many times has this strain been referenced in media.

729
01:06:20,680 --> 01:06:35,680
You could look at sales or tests over time. And if you have a suddenly a strange spikes, then probably there was some event, like a mention.

730
01:06:35,680 --> 01:06:53,680
But this is once again imperfect but like I said, it's a starting point where you could do something like, like Google Trends, you know, just try to see if you know blue dream or gelato is trending.

731
01:06:53,680 --> 01:07:06,680
The data spread is infinite you can, I love this about the data sciences, this is a great example of how it can go infinitely, we can just keep crawling for more and more information.

732
01:07:06,680 --> 01:07:23,680
And my mind is like, oh yeah we can get hashtags we could scrape social media, and network that out and have influencers have different like rating ratios for their levels influence and other things like that.

733
01:07:23,680 --> 01:07:40,680
And then we can just try to gather and manage and then mesh into this.

734
01:07:40,680 --> 01:08:03,680
So it's basically, you should have some sort of like hypothesis so maybe that's what you should all brainstorm about is, you know, what could potentially be a reason to explain the these popular strains into then Caleb you had the idea like oh, maybe it's price.

735
01:08:03,680 --> 01:08:21,680
And then you go try to get the price data. So it's, it's basically you don't just go off to get data for data sake. You first get your hypothesis, then collect the data, and then test your hypothesis.

736
01:08:21,680 --> 01:08:42,680
So, so I love it. We've got a few hypotheses to test right we can get price data, maybe some sort of popularity measure, and then I'm going to be thinking of my own hypotheses for, you know, why in the world is medical, like why are the medical popular strains

737
01:08:42,680 --> 01:08:46,680
different.

738
01:08:46,680 --> 01:09:00,680
And then, hopeful, most importantly, let me just hear. I'll just give you the rough link and you'll have to dig down. It's basically season three.

739
01:09:00,680 --> 01:09:11,680
Number 132, but the data is there on GitHub. So I encourage you all to get this data set into your hands and take a look at it yourself.

740
01:09:11,680 --> 01:09:28,680
You know this was just the first slice and dice of the data, but hopefully there's something I missed that you could find. And once again, augment this with other data sets and that could open up a lot of doors.

741
01:09:28,680 --> 01:09:45,680
On that note, thank you all for coming. Thanks for bringing your brilliant ideas, some really really really good ideas today. Thank you immensely for helping advance canvas science.

