WEBVTT 00:00:00.650 --> 00:00:02.370 All right, welcome back to the buffalo bread 00:00:02.370 --> 00:00:06.030 podcast today We have an audio only show to outline 00:00:06.030 --> 00:00:08.929 the upcoming divisional matchup against the Buffalo 00:00:08.929 --> 00:00:13.130 Bills with the Denver Broncos at mile hot It's 00:00:13.130 --> 00:00:15.689 embarked in power field at mile high. Is that 00:00:15.689 --> 00:00:18.870 right Dan? Yes. Yes to all of those things I'm 00:00:18.870 --> 00:00:21.769 going to say go ahead and say yeah, sure So this 00:00:21.769 --> 00:00:24.710 this game face it features the Buffalo Bills 00:00:24.710 --> 00:00:26.870 facing the second -best rushing defense in the 00:00:26.870 --> 00:00:29.500 league through most of the season after defeating 00:00:29.500 --> 00:00:31.660 the Jaguars, which we did on our wrap -up pod, 00:00:31.879 --> 00:00:34.880 which were the first best rushing defense in 00:00:34.880 --> 00:00:37.500 the league. It's an interesting matchup. Dan 00:00:37.500 --> 00:00:40.289 just... Quick vibe check. Where's your head at 00:00:40.289 --> 00:00:42.869 right now? Similar to how I went into the Jaguar 00:00:42.869 --> 00:00:47.009 game, I think on paper, there are more opportunities 00:00:47.009 --> 00:00:49.469 to attack this Denver Broncos defense as stout 00:00:49.469 --> 00:00:52.090 as it is for this Buffalo Bills offense. Ironically, 00:00:52.310 --> 00:00:54.490 having healthy wide receivers may not be much 00:00:54.490 --> 00:00:56.649 of a factor in this game because where you attack 00:00:56.649 --> 00:00:59.350 the Denver Broncos are with your tight ends catching 00:00:59.350 --> 00:01:01.289 passes and your running backs catching passes. 00:01:01.649 --> 00:01:03.750 So I expect to see a lot of heavy personalities, 00:01:03.789 --> 00:01:06.790 especially a lot of Ty Johnson in the backfield 00:01:06.790 --> 00:01:09.560 with J. Cook, a lot more of those looks as well. 00:01:09.900 --> 00:01:12.040 And one of those guys being a threat in the route 00:01:12.040 --> 00:01:14.420 running game. But JJ, I think an undersold portion 00:01:14.420 --> 00:01:16.519 of this is the Denver offense. I see a lot of 00:01:16.519 --> 00:01:19.019 people, I see a lot of people writing off Bo 00:01:19.019 --> 00:01:22.620 Nix as a second year, one quarter only QB. Since 00:01:22.620 --> 00:01:26.000 week 10, the Denver Broncos, this is after they 00:01:26.000 --> 00:01:29.049 lost, was it J .K. Dobbins for the season? And 00:01:29.049 --> 00:01:31.109 now they've got R .J. Harvey and Jaleel McLaughlin 00:01:31.109 --> 00:01:33.290 rolling them out there. After they lost Dobbins 00:01:33.290 --> 00:01:35.750 from week 10 to the end of the season, this was 00:01:35.750 --> 00:01:38.629 the number three team in overall success rate 00:01:38.629 --> 00:01:42.609 and number five team based on EPA per play and 00:01:42.609 --> 00:01:44.870 rushing the ball. For context, the Buffalo Bills, 00:01:44.989 --> 00:01:47.390 which are largely seen as a bruiser of a run 00:01:47.390 --> 00:01:49.870 team, are fourth in both of those metrics. So 00:01:49.870 --> 00:01:52.829 the Buffalo Bills rush defense is going up against 00:01:52.829 --> 00:01:56.650 a rush offense that is almost as good if not 00:01:56.810 --> 00:01:59.549 as good in some statistical measures by what 00:01:59.549 --> 00:02:01.329 they're rolling out on their own offensive side 00:02:01.329 --> 00:02:03.349 of the ball. I think that's an undersold challenge 00:02:03.349 --> 00:02:05.269 of this game for the Bills, JJ, and it could 00:02:05.269 --> 00:02:07.629 be ultimately the determining factor. Well, and 00:02:07.629 --> 00:02:11.229 especially because it's good on good Bills versus 00:02:11.229 --> 00:02:13.990 the Broncos rushing offense versus rushing defense. 00:02:14.830 --> 00:02:18.810 It's solid on very, very bad, the Broncos rushing 00:02:18.810 --> 00:02:21.889 offense against the Bills rushing defense. Metrically, 00:02:22.069 --> 00:02:24.560 I think that vibes check would tell you the Bills 00:02:24.560 --> 00:02:27.740 rushing defense has been better, but if the Jaguars 00:02:27.740 --> 00:02:29.879 didn't abandon the run in the second half, it's 00:02:29.879 --> 00:02:32.699 more likely that Bashel Tooten would have won 00:02:32.699 --> 00:02:35.099 the game for the Jaguars because they were not 00:02:35.099 --> 00:02:37.360 able to contain him with outside zone, especially 00:02:37.360 --> 00:02:39.379 after the loss of Jordan Poirier, who is also 00:02:39.379 --> 00:02:41.979 going to be missing this game. I think that of 00:02:41.979 --> 00:02:44.000 all of the head coaches that the Bills have seen 00:02:44.000 --> 00:02:46.860 this year who have inexplicably stopped running 00:02:46.860 --> 00:02:49.020 the ball when the Bills got ahead on the scoreboard, 00:02:49.240 --> 00:02:52.099 even if the run was very, very effective, that 00:02:52.099 --> 00:02:54.639 is not Sean Payton. He is a championship winning 00:02:54.639 --> 00:02:57.340 coach. He has ice water in his veins. He's not 00:02:57.340 --> 00:02:59.900 going to abandon the run just because it gets 00:02:59.900 --> 00:03:02.280 stuffed a few times or because Josh Allen has 00:03:02.280 --> 00:03:04.219 put up a couple of scores and they might need 00:03:04.219 --> 00:03:06.919 to check the scoreboard. He's probably going 00:03:06.919 --> 00:03:09.099 to hit the Bills where it hurts as much and as 00:03:09.099 --> 00:03:11.539 often as he can. Well, especially in that atmosphere 00:03:11.539 --> 00:03:15.180 and mile high in the higher altitude. I mean, 00:03:15.439 --> 00:03:18.699 you want, if Bo Nix is indeed the second half 00:03:18.699 --> 00:03:21.919 QB, the closing QB that he has proven himself 00:03:21.919 --> 00:03:24.439 to be over the course of this season, you want 00:03:24.439 --> 00:03:27.139 him going against an already injury depleted, 00:03:27.419 --> 00:03:30.419 now potentially gassed, Buffalo Bill's defense 00:03:30.419 --> 00:03:32.139 because you've battered and bruised them with 00:03:32.139 --> 00:03:35.169 a run game. Honestly, JJ, I think it's, it's 00:03:35.169 --> 00:03:37.750 the most predictable outcome for what Peyton's 00:03:37.750 --> 00:03:40.050 game plan is going to be, but also I think the 00:03:40.050 --> 00:03:42.050 most effective as well because the Bills simply 00:03:42.050 --> 00:03:45.270 do not have an answer to stop. Yeah. And I think 00:03:45.270 --> 00:03:48.389 that, you know, the only answer to stop it may 00:03:48.389 --> 00:03:50.550 be, you know, Sean Peyton's not going to abandon 00:03:50.550 --> 00:03:53.289 the run game in a close game. He may start to 00:03:53.289 --> 00:03:55.330 move away from it in a game where he feels the 00:03:55.330 --> 00:03:57.750 pressure of the time on the clock and the necessity 00:03:57.750 --> 00:04:01.229 to score. And, and many coaches, as I mentioned, 00:04:01.330 --> 00:04:04.180 have moved away from it. far too early. I think 00:04:04.180 --> 00:04:06.400 for the Bills, it's about game script. It's about 00:04:06.400 --> 00:04:09.219 having the team get up on the Denver Broncos 00:04:09.219 --> 00:04:12.560 far enough, fast enough that they feel the need 00:04:12.560 --> 00:04:14.900 to kind of move away from a balanced offensive 00:04:14.900 --> 00:04:17.579 attack and feel the need to score quickly and 00:04:17.579 --> 00:04:20.019 air it out. Because I think that's where the 00:04:20.019 --> 00:04:22.680 Bills' number one passing defense comes into 00:04:22.680 --> 00:04:25.529 play. They have an edge. They proved last Weak 00:04:25.529 --> 00:04:27.209 against the Jaguars that they can pick off a 00:04:27.209 --> 00:04:29.470 quarterback who's interception averse and that 00:04:29.470 --> 00:04:32.269 is not bow picks Yeah, that is not bow picks, 00:04:32.550 --> 00:04:35.500 but you know, you know Bo Nix gets, I think, 00:04:35.660 --> 00:04:37.579 I think he gets a fair amount of criticism, right? 00:04:37.620 --> 00:04:39.000 So let's stick with the side of the ball for 00:04:39.000 --> 00:04:40.839 the little bit. The, the Bill's defense against 00:04:40.839 --> 00:04:43.740 the, the Broncos offense, because I think running 00:04:43.740 --> 00:04:46.199 the ball is going to be a factor. I think Bo 00:04:46.199 --> 00:04:49.620 Nix is a uniquely complex matchup for this Buffalo 00:04:49.620 --> 00:04:52.199 Bill's defense, not just with his ability to 00:04:52.199 --> 00:04:54.379 throw the ball, JJ, but his ability to extend 00:04:54.379 --> 00:04:57.319 the pocket and outright break the pocket with 00:04:57.319 --> 00:04:59.800 his and make big gains with his legs. I mean, 00:04:59.800 --> 00:05:01.620 I was surprised when I was doing research for 00:05:01.620 --> 00:05:03.350 the show. I haven't listened to any other. game 00:05:03.350 --> 00:05:05.350 pods, nothing like that. I was surprised when 00:05:05.350 --> 00:05:07.449 I was doing the research for the show. I found 00:05:07.449 --> 00:05:10.370 out that Bo Nix was the seventh best QB against 00:05:10.370 --> 00:05:12.529 the Blitz this season. But what shocked me more 00:05:12.529 --> 00:05:14.410 is that the Buffalo Bills are blitzing at the 00:05:14.410 --> 00:05:17.449 10th highest rate at over 30 % of their snap 00:05:17.449 --> 00:05:20.410 share this year. Wild times to be a Buffalo Bills 00:05:20.410 --> 00:05:22.709 fan. But they're doing that because the four 00:05:22.709 --> 00:05:25.350 man pass rush shade simply is not there. So if 00:05:25.350 --> 00:05:27.930 you're the Buffalo Bills, I wouldn't necessarily 00:05:27.930 --> 00:05:31.899 be licking your chops. To go at, to have Bo Nix 00:05:31.899 --> 00:05:34.040 go at you through the air. Yes, I know it seems 00:05:34.040 --> 00:05:36.800 silly because on paper Bo Nix versus Josh Allen 00:05:36.800 --> 00:05:38.360 in a shootout, you're going to take Josh Allen 00:05:38.360 --> 00:05:40.819 10 times out of 10. And the Buffalo Bills backend 00:05:40.819 --> 00:05:43.220 coverage will hold up. But if Knicks has all 00:05:43.220 --> 00:05:45.220 day to throw, you're going to be asking Trey 00:05:45.220 --> 00:05:47.819 White to hold up under extraordinary circumstances. 00:05:48.000 --> 00:05:50.100 Taron Johnson, who has just seemed to get his 00:05:50.100 --> 00:05:53.220 legs back underneath him to hold up in extraordinarily 00:05:53.220 --> 00:05:55.980 long situations too. But if you're bringing extra 00:05:55.980 --> 00:05:58.620 blitzers in order to force Knicks off his spot 00:05:58.620 --> 00:06:00.560 and make a decision with the ball, he's been 00:06:00.560 --> 00:06:03.300 an exceptional at it this year. And if you choose 00:06:03.300 --> 00:06:05.560 to just play zone against him, I mean, or you 00:06:05.560 --> 00:06:07.360 choose just to play straight up man and rush 00:06:07.360 --> 00:06:09.259 four against him, I mean, he's going to break 00:06:09.259 --> 00:06:11.699 the pocket. He's going to run. I think Bo Knicks. 00:06:11.470 --> 00:06:15.889 is a larger calculation in this game plan than 00:06:15.889 --> 00:06:17.949 Buffalo Bill's fans are getting a credit for. 00:06:18.069 --> 00:06:20.139 I'm not saying he's outright. could outright 00:06:20.139 --> 00:06:22.819 win the game on his shoulder. But I'm saying, 00:06:23.060 --> 00:06:25.399 in the right moment, with the right game script, 00:06:25.680 --> 00:06:27.860 he is surprisingly problematic for this Buffalo 00:06:27.860 --> 00:06:30.819 Bills defense. Yeah, and I think that that's 00:06:30.819 --> 00:06:32.199 the thing, too, is I think there's a lot of Bills 00:06:32.199 --> 00:06:34.399 mafia who saw Josh Allen's performance and are 00:06:34.399 --> 00:06:36.920 like, well, no matter what any team can bring, 00:06:36.959 --> 00:06:39.899 right? Like, it's the Bills, right? They had 00:06:39.899 --> 00:06:42.000 an excellent game against the Jaguars. I feel 00:06:42.000 --> 00:06:46.230 like both fan bases may be overconfident. Because 00:06:46.230 --> 00:06:48.529 this one is going to be a bit more of a slog 00:06:48.529 --> 00:06:50.689 I think that you have people on the bill side 00:06:50.689 --> 00:06:52.689 being like who did they play they had one point 00:06:52.689 --> 00:06:56.170 victories over the Jets Giants and Raiders early 00:06:56.170 --> 00:06:58.069 in the season and I was not like they lost to 00:06:58.069 --> 00:07:00.889 the Dolphins or anything, right? I know, right? 00:07:01.170 --> 00:07:02.709 And then exactly. And then on the opposite side, 00:07:02.829 --> 00:07:05.290 you have Broncos fans who are like, they've, 00:07:05.310 --> 00:07:07.069 you know, the Bills are completely beat up. Their 00:07:07.069 --> 00:07:09.449 defense is a complete sieve. We can run it on 00:07:09.449 --> 00:07:11.910 all on them all day. We have the one seed. We 00:07:11.910 --> 00:07:13.550 proved it against more difficult teams throughout 00:07:13.550 --> 00:07:15.769 the season, right? Like we also beat the Chiefs. 00:07:15.850 --> 00:07:19.129 So, you know, it's through all that. I think 00:07:19.129 --> 00:07:21.629 that it's going to be interesting. It's going 00:07:21.629 --> 00:07:25.000 to be interesting. And to your point before with 00:07:25.000 --> 00:07:29.240 the Bills dropping seven into coverage and trying 00:07:29.240 --> 00:07:31.259 a four -man organic pressure, it's never going 00:07:31.259 --> 00:07:33.779 to get it done. Garrett Bowles, Mike McGlinchey, 00:07:33.959 --> 00:07:36.639 good outside tackles. I think the Broncos are 00:07:36.639 --> 00:07:39.060 number one in pass protection as an offensive 00:07:39.060 --> 00:07:41.139 line. They have the best offensive line for pass 00:07:41.139 --> 00:07:43.949 pro and the only thing that could shift the needle 00:07:43.949 --> 00:07:45.490 and probably not a lot because it would be a 00:07:45.490 --> 00:07:47.069 first game back. Because if Ed Oliver suits up 00:07:47.069 --> 00:07:49.470 tomorrow, he could provide some more interior 00:07:49.470 --> 00:07:51.910 pass rush. But I expect him to be incredibly, 00:07:51.930 --> 00:07:54.250 incredibly restricted on how much he can do at 00:07:54.250 --> 00:07:57.089 altitude after, what, four months off of football. 00:07:57.790 --> 00:08:01.610 So, you know, it's an interesting game. And I 00:08:01.610 --> 00:08:04.149 can tell you this, I am more anxious than I was 00:08:04.149 --> 00:08:06.050 for the Jaguars game. And I was very worried 00:08:06.050 --> 00:08:09.449 about that one. I would say as I have dug into 00:08:09.449 --> 00:08:11.889 this, I am the same amount of anxious that I 00:08:11.889 --> 00:08:14.970 was. Anxious, okay. Equal anxious. And the reality 00:08:14.970 --> 00:08:18.310 is that there's no gimmies when you make it to 00:08:18.310 --> 00:08:19.970 this stage of the playoffs. And I understand 00:08:19.970 --> 00:08:21.810 the argument that there are no quote unquote 00:08:21.810 --> 00:08:24.250 elite teams. And I understand that the Denver 00:08:24.250 --> 00:08:29.509 Broncos have a very 2024 Chiefs -esque run and 00:08:29.509 --> 00:08:32.870 one win victories. They are 11 and two. 11 of 00:08:32.870 --> 00:08:35.970 their 14 wins came by one score and against some 00:08:35.970 --> 00:08:38.389 lower competition as you noted. But this is also 00:08:38.389 --> 00:08:40.230 a team that's held its own when it's had to play 00:08:40.230 --> 00:08:42.779 some of the best of the best. team that like 00:08:42.779 --> 00:08:45.080 Bo Nix, like this run game can expose the Buffalo 00:08:45.080 --> 00:08:47.879 Bills defense. JJ flipping, flipping gears here 00:08:47.879 --> 00:08:50.120 to the Buffalo Bills offense. There are some 00:08:50.120 --> 00:08:52.460 areas of the field they can expose here against 00:08:52.460 --> 00:08:55.860 this vaunted and rightfully so. Vance Joseph. 00:08:56.880 --> 00:08:59.659 coordinated Denver Broncos defense, and it starts 00:08:59.659 --> 00:09:01.759 with having a healthy tight end pairing. JJ, 00:09:01.899 --> 00:09:03.639 we got the word today that Dalton Kincaid is 00:09:03.639 --> 00:09:06.019 going to be a go for this game, even though he's 00:09:06.019 --> 00:09:08.440 had an injury status all week. What are your 00:09:08.440 --> 00:09:10.759 expectations for how he fits into the game plan? 00:09:10.820 --> 00:09:13.039 Do we see him targeted more than the handful 00:09:13.039 --> 00:09:15.340 of targets he got last week? I think so. I think 00:09:15.340 --> 00:09:17.039 that that's something they're absolutely going 00:09:17.039 --> 00:09:19.360 to have to lean on. I think that it's likely 00:09:19.360 --> 00:09:22.059 that you see the Denver Broncos with the Bills 00:09:22.059 --> 00:09:24.919 depleted wide receiver core. putting a lot of 00:09:24.919 --> 00:09:28.440 emphasis on shutting down Khalil Shakir. 12 targets 00:09:28.440 --> 00:09:30.159 for 12 catches, even if they're short yardage, 00:09:30.200 --> 00:09:31.639 even if it was an extension of the run game, 00:09:32.120 --> 00:09:34.639 is going to get quite a bit of attention from 00:09:34.639 --> 00:09:37.360 any defense in the league. And so I expect them 00:09:37.360 --> 00:09:41.200 to try to erase Khalil Shakir as an option. And 00:09:41.200 --> 00:09:44.000 so that may mean that the Buffalo Bills have 00:09:44.000 --> 00:09:45.899 more opportunities to Dawson Knox, Dalton Kincade. 00:09:46.059 --> 00:09:48.159 I could see Dalton Kincade potentially pressing 00:09:48.159 --> 00:09:51.600 for double digit targets. that is if his health 00:09:51.600 --> 00:09:53.980 is enough to even get that type of usage. I think 00:09:53.980 --> 00:09:57.700 that people were surprised to see against a Jaguars 00:09:57.700 --> 00:10:00.240 defense that gives up such, you know, juicy targets 00:10:00.240 --> 00:10:02.360 to tight ends that Dawson Ox and Dalton Kincade 00:10:02.360 --> 00:10:04.879 were not used as much. Dalton Kincade's snapshot 00:10:04.879 --> 00:10:07.700 was pretty low. I mean, it was high for most 00:10:07.700 --> 00:10:09.279 of his games this season, so they're definitely 00:10:09.279 --> 00:10:11.639 deploying him more as many expected. They were 00:10:11.639 --> 00:10:13.299 saving him for the playoffs in a lot of ways 00:10:13.299 --> 00:10:15.580 while managing this knee issue. But I do think 00:10:15.580 --> 00:10:18.330 that... We may not know how how injured he's 00:10:18.330 --> 00:10:20.049 playing or how hard he's trying to push through 00:10:20.049 --> 00:10:22.289 it as much as I'd love to say Yes, don't get 00:10:22.289 --> 00:10:24.669 10 targets. I don't I don't know if he's capable 00:10:24.669 --> 00:10:27.850 of that right was right I I think we're gonna 00:10:27.850 --> 00:10:30.070 see a lot of heavy personnel and I think we're 00:10:30.070 --> 00:10:32.830 gonna see I agree with you a heavy dose of Dawson 00:10:32.830 --> 00:10:36.409 Knox in this game JJ we saw last week the Buffalo 00:10:36.409 --> 00:10:39.289 Bills run out their 21 personnel package with 00:10:39.289 --> 00:10:42.279 some combination of Ty Johnson and James Cook 00:10:42.279 --> 00:10:45.000 more than a handful of times last week. The Denver 00:10:45.000 --> 00:10:48.659 Broncos are 27th in overall DBOA defending running 00:10:48.659 --> 00:10:50.639 backs out of the backfield. The Denver Broncos 00:10:50.639 --> 00:10:53.279 also play a lot of man defense, which means that's 00:10:53.279 --> 00:10:56.360 a lot of backs to Josh Allen when he is scrambling 00:10:56.360 --> 00:10:58.320 around in the backfield. If you're rolling out 00:10:58.320 --> 00:11:00.720 Dawson Knox, JJ, and you're rolling out Dalton 00:11:00.720 --> 00:11:02.899 Kincaid, and you've got a combination of James 00:11:02.899 --> 00:11:06.980 Cook and Ty Johnson, there are only so many resources, 00:11:07.039 --> 00:11:09.220 if you're the Broncos, you can deploy to stop 00:11:09.220 --> 00:11:11.980 all of those assets the bills have with the weapons 00:11:11.980 --> 00:11:14.980 that you have before you've got to give something 00:11:14.980 --> 00:11:17.799 up. What do you think are this? And I'm going 00:11:17.799 --> 00:11:20.019 to long wind up to a question. I think this could 00:11:20.019 --> 00:11:22.259 be a big Josh Allen rush game. I think it'd be 00:11:22.259 --> 00:11:25.019 crazy for how well prepared and how good this 00:11:25.019 --> 00:11:28.139 Denver Broncos defense is if that's the way they 00:11:28.139 --> 00:11:30.960 ultimately let the Bills beat them. But the Jacksonville 00:11:30.960 --> 00:11:33.200 Jaguars had a hard time stopping Josh on some 00:11:33.200 --> 00:11:36.500 key downs. And there's only so many resources 00:11:36.500 --> 00:11:38.600 you have to deploy against, granted, a limited 00:11:38.600 --> 00:11:40.740 wide receiver room. But this offense isn't built 00:11:40.740 --> 00:11:42.480 around the wide receivers. It's built around 00:11:42.480 --> 00:11:44.440 the running backs in the run game, the tight 00:11:44.440 --> 00:11:46.240 ends in the pass catching game. And those guys 00:11:46.240 --> 00:11:48.700 are going to be available, right? So if you're 00:11:48.700 --> 00:11:51.340 the Denver Broncos, JJ, what's the poison that 00:11:51.340 --> 00:11:52.960 you're going to pick to die from? Are you going 00:11:52.960 --> 00:11:54.759 to let Josh beat you with his legs? Are you going 00:11:54.759 --> 00:11:57.460 to sell out to stop the run? Or is Ty Johnson 00:11:57.460 --> 00:11:59.000 going to have some of these crazy screens that 00:11:59.000 --> 00:12:00.940 he takes to the house for 60 yards? Yeah, I think 00:12:00.940 --> 00:12:03.419 the biggest question that you need to answer 00:12:03.419 --> 00:12:06.179 is can It sucks. It sucks that the Bills rosters 00:12:06.179 --> 00:12:08.440 in the state, but Ken Josh Allen run, right? 00:12:08.639 --> 00:12:11.879 Like he, he was, um, I forget which defensive 00:12:11.879 --> 00:12:14.379 end chased him down from Jacksonville in last 00:12:14.379 --> 00:12:16.779 week's game when he was on a scramble. It was 00:12:16.779 --> 00:12:18.960 the kind of Josh Hines Allen. Was it Josh Hines 00:12:18.960 --> 00:12:21.620 Allen? Yeah. So it was the kind of play where 00:12:21.620 --> 00:12:24.120 you saw, I think it was at Travon. Oh no, it 00:12:24.120 --> 00:12:26.059 might've been Travon Walker. Travon Walker, I 00:12:26.059 --> 00:12:27.700 think it was Travon Walker. It was the kind of 00:12:27.700 --> 00:12:29.259 play where like if you watch, I watched that 00:12:29.259 --> 00:12:31.419 game back a few times, you could see Josh Allen's 00:12:31.419 --> 00:12:33.100 surprise. Like he's shocked somebody's grabbing 00:12:33.100 --> 00:12:35.100 him from behind. And I think it's because - Getting 00:12:35.100 --> 00:12:37.759 old, man. He's playing with a sprained foot. 00:12:37.860 --> 00:12:39.960 I think he's got a pretty severe case of turf 00:12:39.960 --> 00:12:42.840 toe from the Cleveland game. And so I think he 00:12:42.840 --> 00:12:45.320 was surprised that his spring, the spring wasn't 00:12:45.320 --> 00:12:47.840 in his step on that rep. But interestingly enough, 00:12:48.039 --> 00:12:50.820 the Broncos over the past - six weeks of the 00:12:50.820 --> 00:12:53.799 season have not given up over 50 yards rushing 00:12:53.799 --> 00:12:56.039 to anybody other than three players. And those 00:12:56.039 --> 00:12:58.299 three players were running back Josh Jacobs for 00:12:58.299 --> 00:13:01.039 Green Bay, backup QB Trey Lance for the Chargers, 00:13:01.240 --> 00:13:04.019 backup QB Marcus Mariota for the Washington Commanders. 00:13:04.220 --> 00:13:07.539 So people are not rushing on them. However, mobile 00:13:07.539 --> 00:13:09.340 quarterbacks have been a little bit of a bane 00:13:09.340 --> 00:13:11.840 for them. So I'm hoping this is a big time, you 00:13:11.840 --> 00:13:14.279 know, Josh Allen rushing game because that would 00:13:14.279 --> 00:13:16.340 indicate two things to me. One, his foot's doing 00:13:16.340 --> 00:13:21.059 okay, his hand, his knee. And his head, his injury 00:13:21.059 --> 00:13:23.019 designation was literally head, shoulders, knees 00:13:23.019 --> 00:13:26.740 and toes. I know there was a whole song about 00:13:26.740 --> 00:13:29.759 it. Yeah. So that was, but that's what I'm saying 00:13:29.759 --> 00:13:32.279 is like, if you see him run a lot, it means that 00:13:32.279 --> 00:13:34.700 he's probably actually faring better. Like Sean 00:13:34.700 --> 00:13:36.860 McDermott, like Josh Allen said, you know, that 00:13:36.860 --> 00:13:40.500 he's doing. And it's a way to, you know, anytime 00:13:40.500 --> 00:13:43.019 your quarterback runs the ball, you are beating 00:13:43.019 --> 00:13:45.720 them in the numbers game. The reason that handing 00:13:45.720 --> 00:13:48.179 off to running backs. Isn't a thing that all 00:13:48.179 --> 00:13:50.320 teams can do effectively is because you're playing 00:13:50.320 --> 00:13:52.419 one man down Your quarterback is not going to 00:13:52.419 --> 00:13:54.159 be involved in the play after the after he hands 00:13:54.159 --> 00:13:56.360 the ball off when Josh Allen is the runner You're 00:13:56.360 --> 00:13:58.600 even on even so with the tackler being the only 00:13:58.600 --> 00:14:01.720 person that matters the the last man left things 00:14:01.720 --> 00:14:04.159 I don't I don't know I think that it's it's got 00:14:04.159 --> 00:14:06.240 to be something because there's no wide receivers 00:14:06.240 --> 00:14:08.440 I trust other than Brandon cooks and Patrick's 00:14:08.440 --> 00:14:11.980 or tans probably gonna erase him Do you think 00:14:11.980 --> 00:14:14.879 certain I mean certain follows whoever opposing 00:14:14.879 --> 00:14:16.580 teams number one or the receiver is absolutely 00:14:16.580 --> 00:14:20.379 Brandon Cooks. Yeah, I Think it's gonna you don't 00:14:20.379 --> 00:14:22.659 think they'll put him in the slot against Shakir. 00:14:22.659 --> 00:14:24.340 I don't think they're gonna put it right I don't 00:14:24.340 --> 00:14:25.659 think they're gonna put him in the slot against 00:14:25.659 --> 00:14:28.000 Shakir because I'm a got a Baron outside, right? 00:14:28.240 --> 00:14:30.879 Well, and if I'm a coach I'll let my linebackers 00:14:30.879 --> 00:14:32.840 and safeties clean up Shakir for six or eight 00:14:32.840 --> 00:14:35.649 yards. I Cannot afford to let Brandon cooks get 00:14:35.649 --> 00:14:39.230 39 on me. Yeah, that sucks man If I'm if I'm 00:14:39.230 --> 00:14:41.649 Joe Brady I'm trying to figure out a way to switch 00:14:41.649 --> 00:14:43.929 up and get Brandon cooks somehow on Riley Moss 00:14:43.929 --> 00:14:46.970 cuz he's good He's just the victim of I have 00:14:46.970 --> 00:14:49.169 an elite island of a DB on the other side of 00:14:49.169 --> 00:14:51.330 the field for me So he gets targeted a lot, right? 00:14:51.409 --> 00:14:52.889 So his stats don't look good, but he's a pretty 00:14:52.889 --> 00:14:56.919 decent cute JJ. I mean to me it's It almost doesn't 00:14:56.919 --> 00:14:59.139 matter, a wide receiver. To me, it is still, 00:14:59.139 --> 00:15:01.519 to your point, Josh Allen with his legs if he's 00:15:01.519 --> 00:15:04.259 healthy, because this is a man -based defense 00:15:04.259 --> 00:15:06.179 that is going to have their back to Josh. He's 00:15:06.179 --> 00:15:08.240 going to have his opportunities. And then also, 00:15:08.379 --> 00:15:11.000 JJ, this is a Denver Broncos team that struggles 00:15:11.000 --> 00:15:14.120 at tackling in space. They are only 27th in the 00:15:14.120 --> 00:15:16.700 league with an overall DVO rank when it comes 00:15:16.700 --> 00:15:19.379 to miss -tackles this season. Now, their overall 00:15:19.379 --> 00:15:21.629 defensive rankings are great. But if you can 00:15:21.629 --> 00:15:24.070 get their linebackers and their safeties tackling 00:15:24.070 --> 00:15:26.830 in space coming downhill against Josh, against 00:15:26.830 --> 00:15:29.269 Tye Johnson, against James Cook, I'll take that, 00:15:29.269 --> 00:15:31.649 right? Against Khalil Shakir, who's amazing at 00:15:31.649 --> 00:15:33.850 breaking tackles. Yes, exactly. I will take his 00:15:33.850 --> 00:15:35.970 contact balance against anybody that's going 00:15:35.970 --> 00:15:38.129 to be tackling him on Denver. And to that point, 00:15:38.450 --> 00:15:41.100 that's actually the fact that Brandon Cooks will 00:15:41.100 --> 00:15:43.820 probably be followed, in my estimation, by Patrick 00:15:43.820 --> 00:15:46.539 Sertan is a benefit to the Buffalo Bills offense 00:15:46.539 --> 00:15:48.320 because he's actually serving what they need 00:15:48.320 --> 00:15:50.360 him to do, which is erasing the best defensive 00:15:50.360 --> 00:15:52.220 player and getting him out of the box, right? 00:15:52.299 --> 00:15:55.500 Like send him away and then let other people 00:15:55.500 --> 00:15:59.059 work underneath. Yes, absolutely. We are no offense 00:15:59.059 --> 00:16:01.940 to Brandon Cooks, but we are wasting their best 00:16:01.940 --> 00:16:03.899 defensive. They're literally their best defensive 00:16:03.899 --> 00:16:06.240 asset outside of, I'd say, Nick Benito. Yeah. 00:16:06.879 --> 00:16:09.740 On a street free agent. Like yeah, a guy we literally 00:16:09.740 --> 00:16:11.860 picked up for our practice squad a couple of 00:16:11.860 --> 00:16:13.840 weeks ago. So interesting. It's gonna be interesting. 00:16:14.299 --> 00:16:15.860 JJ, I want to ask you one more question before 00:16:15.860 --> 00:16:18.299 we get to Prediction Sure to Go Wrong. Will this 00:16:18.299 --> 00:16:20.659 be a big Keon Coleman game? Because I know you 00:16:20.659 --> 00:16:22.440 like really talking about this topic. I love 00:16:22.440 --> 00:16:24.639 talking about it. Are you rage baiting me? This 00:16:24.639 --> 00:16:26.360 feels like the Gabe Davis thing from last time. 00:16:26.360 --> 00:16:28.460 Listen, man, our YouTube shorts have not hit 00:16:28.460 --> 00:16:30.440 the way they've hit. We need some good Keon Coleman 00:16:30.440 --> 00:16:32.139 rage bait out of you. Right, right, right. I 00:16:32.139 --> 00:16:34.019 got you. I don't think it is because, again, 00:16:34.019 --> 00:16:36.500 I think that he is absolutely not good at football. 00:16:36.700 --> 00:16:39.620 I don't think that Keon Coleman is going to show 00:16:39.620 --> 00:16:42.299 up and have this magnet. I mean, I hope I'm wrong. 00:16:42.460 --> 00:16:44.039 It's like I hoped I'm wrong when they picked 00:16:44.039 --> 00:16:45.519 Josh Allen. I didn't think he'd be any good. 00:16:45.700 --> 00:16:48.200 I hope I'm wrong about this. and like all the 00:16:48.200 --> 00:16:50.539 things for the second year player Keon Coleman 00:16:50.539 --> 00:16:54.659 out of FSU click into place and he showed up 00:16:54.659 --> 00:16:57.419 tuned in turned on clicked on whatever the the 00:16:57.419 --> 00:16:59.679 youths are playing now you know plugged in the 00:16:59.679 --> 00:17:02.220 two youths yeah the youths whatever they're saying 00:17:02.220 --> 00:17:07.059 is as the um the slang thing for you know for 00:17:07.059 --> 00:17:09.700 locking in, locking in, there we go. If he was 00:17:09.700 --> 00:17:11.900 locked in this week in practice and shows up 00:17:11.900 --> 00:17:14.599 and like is blocking his tail off, having, you 00:17:14.599 --> 00:17:17.200 know, making some separation on quick slants, 00:17:17.380 --> 00:17:19.400 breaking some tackles. If he has six catches 00:17:19.400 --> 00:17:22.019 for 80 yards and a tutty in this game, I'll be 00:17:22.019 --> 00:17:24.500 like, okay, maybe they don't immediately try 00:17:24.500 --> 00:17:26.960 to get a sixth rounder for him. Excellent. God, 00:17:26.980 --> 00:17:28.740 I'm so glad I asked you the Keanu Pullman question. 00:17:28.980 --> 00:17:31.420 He may come up later on in the props, just fair 00:17:31.420 --> 00:17:34.109 warning. All right, JJ. Any final thoughts on 00:17:34.109 --> 00:17:35.329 the game or you want to move on a prediction 00:17:35.329 --> 00:17:36.910 sure to go wrong? Well, let's move on to predictions 00:17:36.910 --> 00:17:39.970 This game is has an over under a 46. It's been 00:17:39.970 --> 00:17:42.329 moving around a little bit Yeah, and Denver is 00:17:42.329 --> 00:17:44.170 favored by a point a half. I believe is that 00:17:44.170 --> 00:17:46.490 where we're at? Yes, and Buffalo opened like 00:17:46.490 --> 00:17:48.309 they did it with Jacksonville is one and a half 00:17:48.309 --> 00:17:50.650 point favorites Which tells you that public money 00:17:50.650 --> 00:17:53.329 is going on the Broncos for sure Yep, which is 00:17:53.329 --> 00:17:55.430 honestly what a one and a half line for a road 00:17:55.430 --> 00:17:59.210 to when the playoff is designed to do Oh JJ final 00:17:59.210 --> 00:18:03.269 score prediction. All right, so I I can't break 00:18:03.269 --> 00:18:06.950 from tradition. I love the Bills, as we all know, 00:18:07.049 --> 00:18:11.269 and I previously today and just today described 00:18:11.269 --> 00:18:15.490 Josh Allen as the demigod -esque love child of 00:18:15.490 --> 00:18:18.170 Thor, the god of thunder, a resurrected wooly 00:18:18.170 --> 00:18:20.890 mammoth and Xena warrior princess in a throuple. 00:18:21.150 --> 00:18:23.990 And so, I cannot for the life of me bet against 00:18:23.990 --> 00:18:26.269 that guy. I want him to get his chip. I want 00:18:26.269 --> 00:18:28.230 him to get his, punch his ticket to the Hall 00:18:28.230 --> 00:18:30.750 of Fame as a first ballot person. So, I'm going 00:18:30.750 --> 00:18:38.750 to say Bills, 24 Broncos 22. I think it's going 00:18:38.750 --> 00:18:41.190 to be a wonky score of very close. Gotcha, okay. 00:18:41.789 --> 00:18:46.730 I had Bill's 24, Broncos 20. Okay. And I think 00:18:46.730 --> 00:18:48.450 all the points will be scored in the fourth quarter 00:18:48.450 --> 00:18:49.869 of this game because that's how these two teams 00:18:49.869 --> 00:18:53.190 are, right? Listen, I think the altitude is going 00:18:53.190 --> 00:18:55.519 to play a factor. I mean, this is a big home 00:18:55.519 --> 00:18:57.579 field advantage for Denver. It's why they've 00:18:57.579 --> 00:18:59.819 been able to win so many close games because 00:18:59.819 --> 00:19:01.960 they know how to play in that environment late 00:19:01.960 --> 00:19:04.819 in games and opposing teams don't. I think the 00:19:04.819 --> 00:19:07.299 Buffalo Bills, my joke about fourth quarter scoring 00:19:07.299 --> 00:19:10.380 aside, they've got to control game script. They've 00:19:10.380 --> 00:19:11.859 got to keep their defense off the field as much 00:19:11.859 --> 00:19:14.619 as possible. Please, you have not executed a 00:19:14.619 --> 00:19:17.519 successful double dip. by deferring to the second 00:19:17.519 --> 00:19:21.039 half all year. You are the most game script sensitive 00:19:21.039 --> 00:19:23.660 team in the league, other than maybe the team 00:19:23.660 --> 00:19:25.400 that you are facing on the other side of the 00:19:25.400 --> 00:19:29.029 ball. Take the ball. Take the kick off. Go. score 00:19:29.029 --> 00:19:31.650 or at least drain six minutes off the clock in 00:19:31.650 --> 00:19:33.750 doing so. You know what I mean? I mean, like 00:19:33.750 --> 00:19:36.650 the passivity and the, you talked about this, 00:19:36.769 --> 00:19:38.950 the linearity of this Buffalo Bills offense, 00:19:39.109 --> 00:19:41.309 the thinking, the scheme, like you're going up 00:19:41.309 --> 00:19:43.930 against one of the most creative offensive scheme 00:19:43.930 --> 00:19:46.829 designers in NFL history in Sean Payne. And I 00:19:46.829 --> 00:19:48.250 don't think I'm over exaggerating when I say 00:19:48.250 --> 00:19:50.930 that. Like read the room and understand what 00:19:50.930 --> 00:19:52.630 you need to bring to the table for your guys 00:19:52.630 --> 00:19:54.569 in order to overcome this challenge. So I'm going 00:19:54.569 --> 00:19:57.809 to say Bill's 24, Bronco's 20, and then we're 00:19:57.680 --> 00:20:00.039 going to another AFC championship game, hopefully 00:20:00.039 --> 00:20:02.759 to not have our hearts broken. Right. Hopefully 00:20:02.759 --> 00:20:05.180 not. Hopefully not. What a prop. What are your 00:20:05.180 --> 00:20:07.059 props? Oh, it's just I just have one. And of 00:20:07.059 --> 00:20:08.619 course, it's Keon Coleman because they have to 00:20:08.619 --> 00:20:10.680 play him in this game. He's got to get meaningful 00:20:10.680 --> 00:20:13.220 snaps. Right. He's not only one of the few healthy 00:20:13.220 --> 00:20:14.720 wide receivers they have, he's one of the only 00:20:14.720 --> 00:20:17.660 outside wide receiver blockers they have to now 00:20:17.660 --> 00:20:19.299 the Shavers and Davis are out. So he's going 00:20:19.299 --> 00:20:22.180 to be on the field a lot. JJ over under one and 00:20:22.180 --> 00:20:24.759 a half touchdowns for Keon Coleman under under 00:20:24.759 --> 00:20:28.220 under under under under under. Why you're such 00:20:28.220 --> 00:20:30.380 a big supporter of this? I don't understand. 00:20:30.500 --> 00:20:33.700 I yeah, no I mean I want I want so badly to like 00:20:33.700 --> 00:20:38.460 I want my my negative energy to Shoot out into 00:20:38.460 --> 00:20:40.940 the universe and and result in like a showering 00:20:40.940 --> 00:20:43.660 of positive vibes for Keon You know in rebound 00:20:43.660 --> 00:20:46.960 because I don't think it's I don't anything but 00:20:46.960 --> 00:20:48.940 you know if he gets to touch on somebody's freaking 00:20:48.940 --> 00:20:51.480 I'd again I'd never be happier to be wrong. I'm 00:20:51.480 --> 00:20:54.559 gonna say to And here's why. This is a Broncos 00:20:54.559 --> 00:20:56.259 defense that is pretty stout in the red zone. 00:20:56.460 --> 00:20:58.079 They're already good against the run and it's 00:20:58.079 --> 00:21:00.200 going to be really hard in that condensed portion 00:21:00.200 --> 00:21:03.240 of the field for James Cook or Ty Johnson or 00:21:03.240 --> 00:21:06.339 Ray Davis to squeeze it in from the four or five 00:21:06.339 --> 00:21:08.799 yard line out of a traditional run. Give me Keon 00:21:08.799 --> 00:21:11.140 Coleman jump ball situation on Riley Moss. Just 00:21:11.140 --> 00:21:13.359 give it to me, right? Give it to me. I will take 00:21:13.359 --> 00:21:16.789 it. Yeah. Will see your key on Coleman jump ball 00:21:16.789 --> 00:21:19.170 versus Riley Moss and I will raise you one It's 00:21:19.170 --> 00:21:21.450 absolutely gonna be Josh Allen Buffalo running 00:21:21.450 --> 00:21:24.269 and Bob sledding into the end zone, you know, 00:21:24.390 --> 00:21:26.490 Josh is just gonna throw it to himself in this 00:21:26.490 --> 00:21:30.970 time It's gonna be the Amari Cooper play just 00:21:30.970 --> 00:21:33.849 every play down there. Just yeah, exactly right 00:21:33.849 --> 00:21:37.190 So my only prop is the talking point of this 00:21:37.190 --> 00:21:39.170 game is like this rushing can this rushing defense 00:21:39.170 --> 00:21:41.009 do what the Jaguars do and shut down James Cook 00:21:41.009 --> 00:21:44.230 James Cook over under 69 .5 yards rushing, no 00:21:44.230 --> 00:21:47.170 player has gone over 50 as I mentioned before 00:21:47.170 --> 00:21:49.869 in the past six games and they haven't given 00:21:49.869 --> 00:21:53.200 up more than 60 to any running back all season 00:21:53.200 --> 00:21:56.400 except for Jonathan Taylor. I am going to say 00:21:56.400 --> 00:21:59.299 under, and I think if the Bills advance, I'm 00:21:59.299 --> 00:22:01.200 going to take the under next week, too. I mean, 00:22:01.240 --> 00:22:03.359 listen, the Buffalo Bills have put this run game 00:22:03.359 --> 00:22:06.579 and all of his facets on a lot of tape. And this 00:22:06.579 --> 00:22:08.859 is the time of year where we're only facing good 00:22:08.859 --> 00:22:11.660 teams and only facing good defensive coordinators 00:22:11.660 --> 00:22:14.359 and only good coaching staffs, right? Now that 00:22:14.359 --> 00:22:16.559 Philly is out, there's not a bad head coach left. 00:22:16.900 --> 00:22:19.420 You know what I mean? So, I mean... it's going 00:22:19.420 --> 00:22:23.180 to be under because there's no way a team at 00:22:23.180 --> 00:22:25.940 this level, this deep into the playoffs, is going 00:22:25.940 --> 00:22:28.180 to let the Bills beat them the way they want 00:22:28.180 --> 00:22:29.420 to beat them. They're going to force the Bills 00:22:29.420 --> 00:22:31.220 to play left -handed. Yeah, doing the thing that 00:22:31.220 --> 00:22:33.460 they did all season to win. Correct. That's what 00:22:33.460 --> 00:22:35.480 gets you fired as a defensive coordinator. That 00:22:35.480 --> 00:22:39.240 is absolutely good and sound NFL logic, and I 00:22:39.240 --> 00:22:41.940 know your analytical... mind has taken to this 00:22:41.940 --> 00:22:44.099 point in time. But for the same reason you're 00:22:44.099 --> 00:22:46.079 thinking that Keon Coleman could get two touchdowns, 00:22:46.119 --> 00:22:49.039 I'm thinking that James Cook gets 70 plus yards 00:22:49.039 --> 00:22:51.740 rushing and this is why. You mentioned earlier 00:22:51.740 --> 00:22:54.140 in the pod that the Broncos are pretty notoriously 00:22:54.140 --> 00:22:56.519 a bad tackling team. Their success as a defense 00:22:56.519 --> 00:22:59.299 comes from free flow to the ball, everybody rallying 00:22:59.299 --> 00:23:01.380 to the football, but the first person doesn't 00:23:01.380 --> 00:23:03.799 always make the tackle. James Cook absolutely 00:23:03.799 --> 00:23:06.819 destroys teams where he can break one if even 00:23:06.819 --> 00:23:09.160 one other person is out of position. So I see 00:23:09.160 --> 00:23:11.859 a reality where maybe his yards per carry on 00:23:11.859 --> 00:23:14.779 the day is kind of low, but he ends up popping 00:23:14.779 --> 00:23:17.700 one for like 40, and then throughout the day 00:23:17.700 --> 00:23:20.019 through 20 other carries accumulates a little 00:23:20.019 --> 00:23:24.420 bit more. So, okay, I could maybe see that happening, 00:23:24.599 --> 00:23:25.799 right? Like you said, kind of like the Houston 00:23:25.799 --> 00:23:28.680 game maybe, you know? So I could see that happening. 00:23:29.259 --> 00:23:31.440 I think if it does happen, that's the only way 00:23:31.440 --> 00:23:33.900 it happens. I really do. So, yeah. It's not gonna 00:23:33.900 --> 00:23:35.900 be a game where he a game where he averages five 00:23:35.900 --> 00:23:38.039 plus like he has otherwise, okay Yep, I agree, 00:23:38.319 --> 00:23:40.940 but I think overall JJ anxiety levels are high 00:23:40.940 --> 00:23:43.400 But so are the levels of hope and we hope the 00:23:43.400 --> 00:23:46.000 Buffalo Bill season does not end this week this 00:23:46.000 --> 00:23:48.519 Saturday in Denver However, this pod is in fact 00:23:48.519 --> 00:23:50.680 coming to an end So for all of you listening 00:23:50.680 --> 00:23:52.700 at home like share and subscribe or ever get 00:23:52.700 --> 00:23:55.259 your podcast Google Apple Spotify and as always 00:23:55.259 --> 00:23:56.339 go bills go bills