All right, welcome back to the buffalo bread
podcast today We have an audio only show to outline
the upcoming divisional matchup against the Buffalo
Bills with the Denver Broncos at mile hot It's
embarked in power field at mile high. Is that
right Dan? Yes. Yes to all of those things I'm
going to say go ahead and say yeah, sure So this
this game face it features the Buffalo Bills
facing the second -best rushing defense in the
league through most of the season after defeating
the Jaguars, which we did on our wrap -up pod,
which were the first best rushing defense in
the league. It's an interesting matchup. Dan
just... Quick vibe check. Where's your head at
right now? Similar to how I went into the Jaguar
game, I think on paper, there are more opportunities
to attack this Denver Broncos defense as stout
as it is for this Buffalo Bills offense. Ironically,
having healthy wide receivers may not be much
of a factor in this game because where you attack
the Denver Broncos are with your tight ends catching
passes and your running backs catching passes.
So I expect to see a lot of heavy personalities,
especially a lot of Ty Johnson in the backfield
with J. Cook, a lot more of those looks as well.
And one of those guys being a threat in the route
running game. But JJ, I think an undersold portion
of this is the Denver offense. I see a lot of
people, I see a lot of people writing off Bo
Nix as a second year, one quarter only QB. Since
week 10, the Denver Broncos, this is after they
lost, was it J .K. Dobbins for the season? And
now they've got R .J. Harvey and Jaleel McLaughlin
rolling them out there. After they lost Dobbins
from week 10 to the end of the season, this was
the number three team in overall success rate
and number five team based on EPA per play and
rushing the ball. For context, the Buffalo Bills,
which are largely seen as a bruiser of a run
team, are fourth in both of those metrics. So
the Buffalo Bills rush defense is going up against
a rush offense that is almost as good if not
as good in some statistical measures by what
they're rolling out on their own offensive side
of the ball. I think that's an undersold challenge
of this game for the Bills, JJ, and it could
be ultimately the determining factor. Well, and
especially because it's good on good Bills versus
the Broncos rushing offense versus rushing defense.
It's solid on very, very bad, the Broncos rushing
offense against the Bills rushing defense. Metrically,
I think that vibes check would tell you the Bills
rushing defense has been better, but if the Jaguars
didn't abandon the run in the second half, it's
more likely that Bashel Tooten would have won
the game for the Jaguars because they were not
able to contain him with outside zone, especially
after the loss of Jordan Poirier, who is also
going to be missing this game. I think that of
all of the head coaches that the Bills have seen
this year who have inexplicably stopped running
the ball when the Bills got ahead on the scoreboard,
even if the run was very, very effective, that
is not Sean Payton. He is a championship winning
coach. He has ice water in his veins. He's not
going to abandon the run just because it gets
stuffed a few times or because Josh Allen has
put up a couple of scores and they might need
to check the scoreboard. He's probably going
to hit the Bills where it hurts as much and as
often as he can. Well, especially in that atmosphere
and mile high in the higher altitude. I mean,
you want, if Bo Nix is indeed the second half
QB, the closing QB that he has proven himself
to be over the course of this season, you want
him going against an already injury depleted,
now potentially gassed, Buffalo Bill's defense
because you've battered and bruised them with
a run game. Honestly, JJ, I think it's, it's
the most predictable outcome for what Peyton's
game plan is going to be, but also I think the
most effective as well because the Bills simply
do not have an answer to stop. Yeah. And I think
that, you know, the only answer to stop it may
be, you know, Sean Peyton's not going to abandon
the run game in a close game. He may start to
move away from it in a game where he feels the
pressure of the time on the clock and the necessity
to score. And, and many coaches, as I mentioned,
have moved away from it. far too early. I think
for the Bills, it's about game script. It's about
having the team get up on the Denver Broncos
far enough, fast enough that they feel the need
to kind of move away from a balanced offensive
attack and feel the need to score quickly and
air it out. Because I think that's where the
Bills' number one passing defense comes into
play. They have an edge. They proved last Weak
against the Jaguars that they can pick off a
quarterback who's interception averse and that
is not bow picks Yeah, that is not bow picks,
but you know, you know Bo Nix gets, I think,
I think he gets a fair amount of criticism, right?
So let's stick with the side of the ball for
the little bit. The, the Bill's defense against
the, the Broncos offense, because I think running
the ball is going to be a factor. I think Bo
Nix is a uniquely complex matchup for this Buffalo
Bill's defense, not just with his ability to
throw the ball, JJ, but his ability to extend
the pocket and outright break the pocket with
his and make big gains with his legs. I mean,
I was surprised when I was doing research for
the show. I haven't listened to any other. game
pods, nothing like that. I was surprised when
I was doing the research for the show. I found
out that Bo Nix was the seventh best QB against
the Blitz this season. But what shocked me more
is that the Buffalo Bills are blitzing at the
10th highest rate at over 30 % of their snap
share this year. Wild times to be a Buffalo Bills
fan. But they're doing that because the four
man pass rush shade simply is not there. So if
you're the Buffalo Bills, I wouldn't necessarily
be licking your chops. To go at, to have Bo Nix
go at you through the air. Yes, I know it seems
silly because on paper Bo Nix versus Josh Allen
in a shootout, you're going to take Josh Allen
10 times out of 10. And the Buffalo Bills backend
coverage will hold up. But if Knicks has all
day to throw, you're going to be asking Trey
White to hold up under extraordinary circumstances.
Taron Johnson, who has just seemed to get his
legs back underneath him to hold up in extraordinarily
long situations too. But if you're bringing extra
blitzers in order to force Knicks off his spot
and make a decision with the ball, he's been
an exceptional at it this year. And if you choose
to just play zone against him, I mean, or you
choose just to play straight up man and rush
four against him, I mean, he's going to break
the pocket. He's going to run. I think Bo Knicks.
is a larger calculation in this game plan than
Buffalo Bill's fans are getting a credit for.
I'm not saying he's outright. could outright
win the game on his shoulder. But I'm saying,
in the right moment, with the right game script,
he is surprisingly problematic for this Buffalo
Bills defense. Yeah, and I think that that's
the thing, too, is I think there's a lot of Bills
mafia who saw Josh Allen's performance and are
like, well, no matter what any team can bring,
right? Like, it's the Bills, right? They had
an excellent game against the Jaguars. I feel
like both fan bases may be overconfident. Because
this one is going to be a bit more of a slog
I think that you have people on the bill side
being like who did they play they had one point
victories over the Jets Giants and Raiders early
in the season and I was not like they lost to
the Dolphins or anything, right? I know, right?
And then exactly. And then on the opposite side,
you have Broncos fans who are like, they've,
you know, the Bills are completely beat up. Their
defense is a complete sieve. We can run it on
all on them all day. We have the one seed. We
proved it against more difficult teams throughout
the season, right? Like we also beat the Chiefs.
So, you know, it's through all that. I think
that it's going to be interesting. It's going
to be interesting. And to your point before with
the Bills dropping seven into coverage and trying
a four -man organic pressure, it's never going
to get it done. Garrett Bowles, Mike McGlinchey,
good outside tackles. I think the Broncos are
number one in pass protection as an offensive
line. They have the best offensive line for pass
pro and the only thing that could shift the needle
and probably not a lot because it would be a
first game back. Because if Ed Oliver suits up
tomorrow, he could provide some more interior
pass rush. But I expect him to be incredibly,
incredibly restricted on how much he can do at
altitude after, what, four months off of football.
So, you know, it's an interesting game. And I
can tell you this, I am more anxious than I was
for the Jaguars game. And I was very worried
about that one. I would say as I have dug into
this, I am the same amount of anxious that I
was. Anxious, okay. Equal anxious. And the reality
is that there's no gimmies when you make it to
this stage of the playoffs. And I understand
the argument that there are no quote unquote
elite teams. And I understand that the Denver
Broncos have a very 2024 Chiefs -esque run and
one win victories. They are 11 and two. 11 of
their 14 wins came by one score and against some
lower competition as you noted. But this is also
a team that's held its own when it's had to play
some of the best of the best. team that like
Bo Nix, like this run game can expose the Buffalo
Bills defense. JJ flipping, flipping gears here
to the Buffalo Bills offense. There are some
areas of the field they can expose here against
this vaunted and rightfully so. Vance Joseph.
coordinated Denver Broncos defense, and it starts
with having a healthy tight end pairing. JJ,
we got the word today that Dalton Kincaid is
going to be a go for this game, even though he's
had an injury status all week. What are your
expectations for how he fits into the game plan?
Do we see him targeted more than the handful
of targets he got last week? I think so. I think
that that's something they're absolutely going
to have to lean on. I think that it's likely
that you see the Denver Broncos with the Bills
depleted wide receiver core. putting a lot of
emphasis on shutting down Khalil Shakir. 12 targets
for 12 catches, even if they're short yardage,
even if it was an extension of the run game,
is going to get quite a bit of attention from
any defense in the league. And so I expect them
to try to erase Khalil Shakir as an option. And
so that may mean that the Buffalo Bills have
more opportunities to Dawson Knox, Dalton Kincade.
I could see Dalton Kincade potentially pressing
for double digit targets. that is if his health
is enough to even get that type of usage. I think
that people were surprised to see against a Jaguars
defense that gives up such, you know, juicy targets
to tight ends that Dawson Ox and Dalton Kincade
were not used as much. Dalton Kincade's snapshot
was pretty low. I mean, it was high for most
of his games this season, so they're definitely
deploying him more as many expected. They were
saving him for the playoffs in a lot of ways
while managing this knee issue. But I do think
that... We may not know how how injured he's
playing or how hard he's trying to push through
it as much as I'd love to say Yes, don't get
10 targets. I don't I don't know if he's capable
of that right was right I I think we're gonna
see a lot of heavy personnel and I think we're
gonna see I agree with you a heavy dose of Dawson
Knox in this game JJ we saw last week the Buffalo
Bills run out their 21 personnel package with
some combination of Ty Johnson and James Cook
more than a handful of times last week. The Denver
Broncos are 27th in overall DBOA defending running
backs out of the backfield. The Denver Broncos
also play a lot of man defense, which means that's
a lot of backs to Josh Allen when he is scrambling
around in the backfield. If you're rolling out
Dawson Knox, JJ, and you're rolling out Dalton
Kincaid, and you've got a combination of James
Cook and Ty Johnson, there are only so many resources,
if you're the Broncos, you can deploy to stop
all of those assets the bills have with the weapons
that you have before you've got to give something
up. What do you think are this? And I'm going
to long wind up to a question. I think this could
be a big Josh Allen rush game. I think it'd be
crazy for how well prepared and how good this
Denver Broncos defense is if that's the way they
ultimately let the Bills beat them. But the Jacksonville
Jaguars had a hard time stopping Josh on some
key downs. And there's only so many resources
you have to deploy against, granted, a limited
wide receiver room. But this offense isn't built
around the wide receivers. It's built around
the running backs in the run game, the tight
ends in the pass catching game. And those guys
are going to be available, right? So if you're
the Denver Broncos, JJ, what's the poison that
you're going to pick to die from? Are you going
to let Josh beat you with his legs? Are you going
to sell out to stop the run? Or is Ty Johnson
going to have some of these crazy screens that
he takes to the house for 60 yards? Yeah, I think
the biggest question that you need to answer
is can It sucks. It sucks that the Bills rosters
in the state, but Ken Josh Allen run, right?
Like he, he was, um, I forget which defensive
end chased him down from Jacksonville in last
week's game when he was on a scramble. It was
the kind of Josh Hines Allen. Was it Josh Hines
Allen? Yeah. So it was the kind of play where
you saw, I think it was at Travon. Oh no, it
might've been Travon Walker. Travon Walker, I
think it was Travon Walker. It was the kind of
play where like if you watch, I watched that
game back a few times, you could see Josh Allen's
surprise. Like he's shocked somebody's grabbing
him from behind. And I think it's because - Getting
old, man. He's playing with a sprained foot.
I think he's got a pretty severe case of turf
toe from the Cleveland game. And so I think he
was surprised that his spring, the spring wasn't
in his step on that rep. But interestingly enough,
the Broncos over the past - six weeks of the
season have not given up over 50 yards rushing
to anybody other than three players. And those
three players were running back Josh Jacobs for
Green Bay, backup QB Trey Lance for the Chargers,
backup QB Marcus Mariota for the Washington Commanders.
So people are not rushing on them. However, mobile
quarterbacks have been a little bit of a bane
for them. So I'm hoping this is a big time, you
know, Josh Allen rushing game because that would
indicate two things to me. One, his foot's doing
okay, his hand, his knee. And his head, his injury
designation was literally head, shoulders, knees
and toes. I know there was a whole song about
it. Yeah. So that was, but that's what I'm saying
is like, if you see him run a lot, it means that
he's probably actually faring better. Like Sean
McDermott, like Josh Allen said, you know, that
he's doing. And it's a way to, you know, anytime
your quarterback runs the ball, you are beating
them in the numbers game. The reason that handing
off to running backs. Isn't a thing that all
teams can do effectively is because you're playing
one man down Your quarterback is not going to
be involved in the play after the after he hands
the ball off when Josh Allen is the runner You're
even on even so with the tackler being the only
person that matters the the last man left things
I don't I don't know I think that it's it's got
to be something because there's no wide receivers
I trust other than Brandon cooks and Patrick's
or tans probably gonna erase him Do you think
certain I mean certain follows whoever opposing
teams number one or the receiver is absolutely
Brandon Cooks. Yeah, I Think it's gonna you don't
think they'll put him in the slot against Shakir.
I don't think they're gonna put it right I don't
think they're gonna put him in the slot against
Shakir because I'm a got a Baron outside, right?
Well, and if I'm a coach I'll let my linebackers
and safeties clean up Shakir for six or eight
yards. I Cannot afford to let Brandon cooks get
39 on me. Yeah, that sucks man If I'm if I'm
Joe Brady I'm trying to figure out a way to switch
up and get Brandon cooks somehow on Riley Moss
cuz he's good He's just the victim of I have
an elite island of a DB on the other side of
the field for me So he gets targeted a lot, right?
So his stats don't look good, but he's a pretty
decent cute JJ. I mean to me it's It almost doesn't
matter, a wide receiver. To me, it is still,
to your point, Josh Allen with his legs if he's
healthy, because this is a man -based defense
that is going to have their back to Josh. He's
going to have his opportunities. And then also,
JJ, this is a Denver Broncos team that struggles
at tackling in space. They are only 27th in the
league with an overall DVO rank when it comes
to miss -tackles this season. Now, their overall
defensive rankings are great. But if you can
get their linebackers and their safeties tackling
in space coming downhill against Josh, against
Tye Johnson, against James Cook, I'll take that,
right? Against Khalil Shakir, who's amazing at
breaking tackles. Yes, exactly. I will take his
contact balance against anybody that's going
to be tackling him on Denver. And to that point,
that's actually the fact that Brandon Cooks will
probably be followed, in my estimation, by Patrick
Sertan is a benefit to the Buffalo Bills offense
because he's actually serving what they need
him to do, which is erasing the best defensive
player and getting him out of the box, right?
Like send him away and then let other people
work underneath. Yes, absolutely. We are no offense
to Brandon Cooks, but we are wasting their best
defensive. They're literally their best defensive
asset outside of, I'd say, Nick Benito. Yeah.
On a street free agent. Like yeah, a guy we literally
picked up for our practice squad a couple of
weeks ago. So interesting. It's gonna be interesting.
JJ, I want to ask you one more question before
we get to Prediction Sure to Go Wrong. Will this
be a big Keon Coleman game? Because I know you
like really talking about this topic. I love
talking about it. Are you rage baiting me? This
feels like the Gabe Davis thing from last time.
Listen, man, our YouTube shorts have not hit
the way they've hit. We need some good Keon Coleman
rage bait out of you. Right, right, right. I
got you. I don't think it is because, again,
I think that he is absolutely not good at football.
I don't think that Keon Coleman is going to show
up and have this magnet. I mean, I hope I'm wrong.
It's like I hoped I'm wrong when they picked
Josh Allen. I didn't think he'd be any good.
I hope I'm wrong about this. and like all the
things for the second year player Keon Coleman
out of FSU click into place and he showed up
tuned in turned on clicked on whatever the the
youths are playing now you know plugged in the
two youths yeah the youths whatever they're saying
is as the um the slang thing for you know for
locking in, locking in, there we go. If he was
locked in this week in practice and shows up
and like is blocking his tail off, having, you
know, making some separation on quick slants,
breaking some tackles. If he has six catches
for 80 yards and a tutty in this game, I'll be
like, okay, maybe they don't immediately try
to get a sixth rounder for him. Excellent. God,
I'm so glad I asked you the Keanu Pullman question.
He may come up later on in the props, just fair
warning. All right, JJ. Any final thoughts on
the game or you want to move on a prediction
sure to go wrong? Well, let's move on to predictions
This game is has an over under a 46. It's been
moving around a little bit Yeah, and Denver is
favored by a point a half. I believe is that
where we're at? Yes, and Buffalo opened like
they did it with Jacksonville is one and a half
point favorites Which tells you that public money
is going on the Broncos for sure Yep, which is
honestly what a one and a half line for a road
to when the playoff is designed to do Oh JJ final
score prediction. All right, so I I can't break
from tradition. I love the Bills, as we all know,
and I previously today and just today described
Josh Allen as the demigod -esque love child of
Thor, the god of thunder, a resurrected wooly
mammoth and Xena warrior princess in a throuple.
And so, I cannot for the life of me bet against
that guy. I want him to get his chip. I want
him to get his, punch his ticket to the Hall
of Fame as a first ballot person. So, I'm going
to say Bills, 24 Broncos 22. I think it's going
to be a wonky score of very close. Gotcha, okay.
I had Bill's 24, Broncos 20. Okay. And I think
all the points will be scored in the fourth quarter
of this game because that's how these two teams
are, right? Listen, I think the altitude is going
to play a factor. I mean, this is a big home
field advantage for Denver. It's why they've
been able to win so many close games because
they know how to play in that environment late
in games and opposing teams don't. I think the
Buffalo Bills, my joke about fourth quarter scoring
aside, they've got to control game script. They've
got to keep their defense off the field as much
as possible. Please, you have not executed a
successful double dip. by deferring to the second
half all year. You are the most game script sensitive
team in the league, other than maybe the team
that you are facing on the other side of the
ball. Take the ball. Take the kick off. Go. score
or at least drain six minutes off the clock in
doing so. You know what I mean? I mean, like
the passivity and the, you talked about this,
the linearity of this Buffalo Bills offense,
the thinking, the scheme, like you're going up
against one of the most creative offensive scheme
designers in NFL history in Sean Payne. And I
don't think I'm over exaggerating when I say
that. Like read the room and understand what
you need to bring to the table for your guys
in order to overcome this challenge. So I'm going
to say Bill's 24, Bronco's 20, and then we're
going to another AFC championship game, hopefully
to not have our hearts broken. Right. Hopefully
not. Hopefully not. What a prop. What are your
props? Oh, it's just I just have one. And of
course, it's Keon Coleman because they have to
play him in this game. He's got to get meaningful
snaps. Right. He's not only one of the few healthy
wide receivers they have, he's one of the only
outside wide receiver blockers they have to now
the Shavers and Davis are out. So he's going
to be on the field a lot. JJ over under one and
a half touchdowns for Keon Coleman under under
under under under under under. Why you're such
a big supporter of this? I don't understand.
I yeah, no I mean I want I want so badly to like
I want my my negative energy to Shoot out into
the universe and and result in like a showering
of positive vibes for Keon You know in rebound
because I don't think it's I don't anything but
you know if he gets to touch on somebody's freaking
I'd again I'd never be happier to be wrong. I'm
gonna say to And here's why. This is a Broncos
defense that is pretty stout in the red zone.
They're already good against the run and it's
going to be really hard in that condensed portion
of the field for James Cook or Ty Johnson or
Ray Davis to squeeze it in from the four or five
yard line out of a traditional run. Give me Keon
Coleman jump ball situation on Riley Moss. Just
give it to me, right? Give it to me. I will take
it. Yeah. Will see your key on Coleman jump ball
versus Riley Moss and I will raise you one It's
absolutely gonna be Josh Allen Buffalo running
and Bob sledding into the end zone, you know,
Josh is just gonna throw it to himself in this
time It's gonna be the Amari Cooper play just
every play down there. Just yeah, exactly right
So my only prop is the talking point of this
game is like this rushing can this rushing defense
do what the Jaguars do and shut down James Cook
James Cook over under 69 .5 yards rushing, no
player has gone over 50 as I mentioned before
in the past six games and they haven't given
up more than 60 to any running back all season
except for Jonathan Taylor. I am going to say
under, and I think if the Bills advance, I'm
going to take the under next week, too. I mean,
listen, the Buffalo Bills have put this run game
and all of his facets on a lot of tape. And this
is the time of year where we're only facing good
teams and only facing good defensive coordinators
and only good coaching staffs, right? Now that
Philly is out, there's not a bad head coach left.
You know what I mean? So, I mean... it's going
to be under because there's no way a team at
this level, this deep into the playoffs, is going
to let the Bills beat them the way they want
to beat them. They're going to force the Bills
to play left -handed. Yeah, doing the thing that
they did all season to win. Correct. That's what
gets you fired as a defensive coordinator. That
is absolutely good and sound NFL logic, and I
know your analytical... mind has taken to this
point in time. But for the same reason you're
thinking that Keon Coleman could get two touchdowns,
I'm thinking that James Cook gets 70 plus yards
rushing and this is why. You mentioned earlier
in the pod that the Broncos are pretty notoriously
a bad tackling team. Their success as a defense
comes from free flow to the ball, everybody rallying
to the football, but the first person doesn't
always make the tackle. James Cook absolutely
destroys teams where he can break one if even
one other person is out of position. So I see
a reality where maybe his yards per carry on
the day is kind of low, but he ends up popping
one for like 40, and then throughout the day
through 20 other carries accumulates a little
bit more. So, okay, I could maybe see that happening,
right? Like you said, kind of like the Houston
game maybe, you know? So I could see that happening.
I think if it does happen, that's the only way
it happens. I really do. So, yeah. It's not gonna
be a game where he a game where he averages five
plus like he has otherwise, okay Yep, I agree,
but I think overall JJ anxiety levels are high
But so are the levels of hope and we hope the
Buffalo Bill season does not end this week this
Saturday in Denver However, this pod is in fact
coming to an end So for all of you listening
at home like share and subscribe or ever get
your podcast Google Apple Spotify and as always
go bills go bills