WEBVTT

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Welcome back to the Buffalo Bread Podcast. JJ

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and Dan here. And as you may see at home, I'm

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wearing a jersey, which can only mean one thing.

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Dan, it's playoff time. Week one wild card weekend.

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The Bills are set to play tomorrow. We're recording

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on Saturday 1 p .m. 1 p .m. kicks are good for

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the Bills. They're good for the Bills on the

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road even, even though their Bills are terrible

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on the road, especially in the playoffs. But

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we'll talk about that. And it's going to be against

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Jacksonville in Jacksonville country down there

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in Duval. And I think the the game looks to be

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best on best. The league's best rushing defense

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versus the league's best rushing offense in the

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Bills. And then on top of that, the Bills number

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one pass defense against a top 10 unit on the

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Jaguar side of the field in offense. WPA overall,

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but also in passing. Dan. Where is your head

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at? How are you feeling about this? Playoff football

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is always exciting. I mean, this is usually the

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time of year where my social media feed gets

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flooded with the end of the drought. The videos

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in the Bills locker room is the Bengals eliminate

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the Ravens, and it gives the Bills a chance to

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head into the postseason in 2017. Like all of

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that stuff, JJ, is just a nice reminder that

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this time of year, despite whatever the expectations

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are or whatever the narratives are, as a Bills

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fan, we should always just try to enjoy these

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moments because we've lived the majority of our

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adult fan hoods without having opportunities

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like this to enjoy extended postseason play for

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the Buffalo Bills. So I'm optimistic, I'm hopeful,

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but most of all I'm grateful for just getting

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to see the Bills play a little bit of extra football

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and hoping they can pull out a tough one against,

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as you stated, a really stout AFC rival in the

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Jacksonville Jaguars and a team, JJ, that the

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Bills have a really weird history against. Yeah,

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it's funny because it's not like the history,

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the recent history of the... as a Chiefs or even

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the matchups they've had with the Baltimore Ravens,

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to go through the Jags history, you go back to

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the drought break year where the Bills lost in

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Jacksonville, where Tyrod Taylor could not get

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the Bills a touchdown. Even though the center

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on Buffalo podcast by Eric Wood, he shared that

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on the goal line of that game, Tyrod should have

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called a QB run and instead stuck to a fade ball

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to the outside. And on that fade ball, there

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was an offensive pass interference set them back

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yard. They ended up getting a field goal and

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said that that would have been the point. They

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made the difference that continued the playoffs,

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though. Eric would admitted that that team was

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not going to the Super Bowl that year. But really,

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to look at this Jacksonville Jaguars, Buffalo

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Bills. you know, foe rivalry over the years,

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you have to go back to the 90s, to the Super

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Bowl era Bills. Just after the Jacksonville Jaguars

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were founded as a team, they played there a few

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times at the very end of that era before the

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drought began. And so it's an interesting matchup

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and it's never been good for the Bills. Do you

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want to give a little bit of a history lesson?

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Yeah, just focusing on the Sean McDermott era,

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the Jags, JJ, actually own a winning record against

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the Bills. They are three and two, including

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the postseason. against these Sean McDermott

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-led Buffalo Bills. You know, and I think even

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though the Jacksonville Jaguars have had a, is

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it three different coaches in that time frame?

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It's been, who has it been? It's been, no, it's

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been four, because it was Doug Marrone. And then

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it was Urban Meyer. And then it was, now it's

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Liam Cohen. Who was the last? Was it Doug Pete?

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No. Yeah, it was, it was Peterson, the former

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Philadelphia Eagles coach, right? So over that

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timeframe, it seems like regardless of the coach,

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they have had a moderate success here against

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Sean McDermott and these Buffalo Bills. And JJ,

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Liam Cohen, being a new head coach, we've seen

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head coaches like this role against this Buffalo

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Bill squad before Jacksonville is talking with

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their chests out. They're speaking as if they

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expect to and have already won this game in a

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lot of ways. confident team despite the fact

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that this is their head coach's first rodeo in

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the lead role in the postseason. You know, it's

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going to be interesting to see if the moxie and

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the energy that the Jags are bringing here to

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this particular game, JJ, is going to outweigh

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some of the experience and the stability that

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the Bills are bringing through via their coaching

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staff and some of the veteran presence on this

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team as well. JJ, I have so many questions. I

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have so many questions because like... narratives

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aside for this game, these are two, I think of

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the prime contenders in a wide open AFC to go

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to the Super Bowl. If you told me in four weeks

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that we're looking at the Jags versus any NFC

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team in the Super Bowl, I wouldn't be surprised.

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This is a imperfect but effective defense. This

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is an offense that has caught fire, thanks to

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the leadership and the sort of coming out moment

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of Trevor Lawrence, their veteran star QB. A

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lot of fans down in Jacksonville have been waiting

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for this. There's just so much about this Jaguars

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team, JJ, that is exciting to the general football

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fan, but also schematically presents a lot of

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problems for the way this particular Buffalo

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Bills team is built. Like, I'm just looking forward

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to getting into it. I'm hoping no matter what,

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we're going to have our questions answered at

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the end of the day tomorrow. But there's There's

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still a lot of fun stuff for us to unpack, I

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think, now. Yeah, absolutely. Where do you want

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to start with these major questions? Dude, I

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want to talk, can we talk about this Jacksonville

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Jaguars defense? Because you noted it. They are

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number one in the league right now in yards allowed

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per game. against the rush. I think they're sitting

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somewhere like 68 yards per game allowed. Now,

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when you look at some of their underlying metrics,

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when you look at success rate, still pretty good.

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When you look at EPA per rush, also very, very

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good as you alluded to. But a lot of this JJ

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has been, particularly in the last 10 weeks when

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you really drilled down in on this rush defense,

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a lot of it's been game script. They've been

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putting the pressure with their offense. on on

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opposing teams to the point where the run game

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really can't factor in for a lot of squads moving

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into latter parts of the game because they are

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playing catch up. You know, JJ, this is the game

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script that the Buffalo Bills lived and breathed

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on last year. I've been struggling to find again

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and the Jags are really proficient at running

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it. I will say. that I see some opportunities

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here for this Buffalo Bills rushing attack led

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by a second team, all pro James Cook, um, and

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a really stout offensive line. I think to, I

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think to really impose their will against this

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Jacksonville Jaguars defensive line. I am thinking

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Jay, Jen, I'd love your take on this. The Bills

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are actually going to have some success. running

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outside the tackles on this team. And I feel

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like we've said this before, the Bills want to

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make your defensive backs tackle in the run game.

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And I think this is where the Jacksonville Jaguars

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can be had a little bit in their run defenses,

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making that secondary crash down and play really

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hard stout rush defense. Yeah, I think that that's

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that's the real answer to in the Bills matchup

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with the Patriots earlier in the season. The

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answer that the Patriots had for the Bills rushing

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attack that seemed to work so well and also seemed

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to add some fuel to the fire for other Bill's

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losses throughout the year. And then they looked

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to pivot and fix it later on was just having

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a really dedicated safety presence in the box

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and having cornerbacks maybe not necessarily

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take the farthest outside gap in a run fill because

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that's where James Cook was gashing teams all

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through the first part of the year. And so the

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Patriots kind of started that blueprint and other

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teams started copying it. And it's interesting

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because, you know, the The Jaguars do not have

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great outside tackling corners in Newsom and

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Brown. They are terrible in run defense, all

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things told. They have excellent linebackers.

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They have a solid defensive line and they have

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decent safeties in run fill. But really, their

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outside corners are not all stars at getting

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up and getting physical and large. So, you know,

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Wingard and Murray coming down as safeties are

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going to be more helpful. So it's going to be

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interesting to me to see what And part of the

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reason that the Jaguars defense is excellent

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against the run, but bad against zone running

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is exactly that. Zone running relies on a person

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to cover an area. And if that person is weak

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against a run, that's where it falls apart. They're

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great against gap running because kind of their

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defensive line and linebackers can man up anybody.

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But when it comes to requiring areas of the field

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to be denied based on a single player's run stopping

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possibilities. That's where they're going to

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struggle. So all that said, I think that knowing

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the Buffalo Bills, knowing offensive line coach

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and and Joe Brady and his run design, I feel

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good about the Bills opportunity to get this.

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I think that, you know, anybody out there who's

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playing, you know, playing gambling, betting

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and parlays going for an over 75 yards for James

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Cook is probably a pretty good bet because the.

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The Jags have not given up more than 75 yards,

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so the odds are pretty good for you if you make

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that bet, but James Cook is also an absolute

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force. Yeah, it really is. And JJ, that's kind

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of the story of this Jacksonville Jaguars defense.

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In the aggregate, their overall rankings when

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you look at underlying metrics, when you look

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at yards per game, when you look at overall rankings,

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it's a really, really solid defense. It is a

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defense that I think thrives on turnovers. probably

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a little bit more than they would like to, but

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still has some shutdown capabilities in some

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areas. But then you find that one nugget, to

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your point, some of the outside zone stuff. And

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then in their pass defense game, when you look

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at areas of the field where they're solid in,

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there's always a little bit of an underlying

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weakness that you can exploit. And against this

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Jacksonville Jaguars defense, JJ, it's tight

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end defense. This team is very middle of the

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pack, 16th in the league. When it comes to DVOA

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in tight ends as pass catchers against this squad,

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despite the fact that they've got some really,

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really solid linebackers, but this is more of

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a pass rush linebacker group, JJ. So if Dalton

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Kincaid is healthy and ready to go, and if Dawson

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Knox can continue some of his late second half

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of the season pass catching theatrics, I think

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we could see linebackers or safeties reassigned

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to Shadow, one or both of those guys, and Bill's

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heavy set offensive schemes, and then that could

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open up things a little bit more for James. like

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to exploit the second level on the, in the middle

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part of the field as well. There are opportunities,

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despite the fact that in the aggregate, this

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Jacksonville Jaguars defense is very good. There

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are opportunities that speak to this Buffalo

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Bills offensive strengths that I think are going

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to allow them to exploit it. JJ, I want to talk

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about Josh Allen next year. Um, because I think

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the run game, I think you and I probably both

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agree. The Bills are going to come out and they're

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going to establish a run first mentality. They're

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going to want to. take time off the clock, they're

00:10:54.820 --> 00:10:57.740
going, they're going to want to make sure that

00:10:57.740 --> 00:10:59.460
Trevor Lawrence stays on the sideline for as

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long as possible. They're going to want to suffocate

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this Jacksonville Jaguars team and give them

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as few opportunities as possible to get that

00:11:06.779 --> 00:11:09.059
high octane offense on the field. But again,

00:11:09.179 --> 00:11:12.149
this Jaguars defense is good. And their coaches

00:11:12.149 --> 00:11:14.110
get paid too. And they have a really excellent

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DC and Anthony Campanelli, I think is his name,

00:11:17.029 --> 00:11:19.809
right? Who is going to come ready with a great

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game plan to try to stop some of the stuff the

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bills are rolling out. It's modern era football.

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At some point, Josh Allen is going to be asked

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to do something. And JJ, I think a lot of the

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media narrative has been, well, he is the statistically

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the best. postseason QB we have seen in the modern

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era that has not yet has yet to win a Super Bowl.

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And I think people are taking for granted that

00:11:39.480 --> 00:11:41.259
Josh is going to be able to put on that superhero

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cape should all things fail, all else fail. But

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JJ, you and I both watched closely here at the

00:11:47.659 --> 00:11:49.059
end of the season, even though we didn't have

00:11:49.059 --> 00:11:51.860
a chance to really recap it due to various illnesses

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and family stuff that we were dealing with. This

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is as shaky as a run to close the season as I

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can remember Josh having. And he was very candid

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in that press conference here leading up to this

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game this week where he talked about the self

00:12:05.789 --> 00:12:08.350
-scouting process he went through during week

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18 and in the lead up to this wild card game.

00:12:11.730 --> 00:12:14.230
JJ, this is going to seem like a silly question.

00:12:14.409 --> 00:12:16.549
It's simplistic at first, but I want to dig into

00:12:16.549 --> 00:12:20.649
it. What is your confidence level that should

00:12:20.649 --> 00:12:24.009
Josh Allen be called upon to be Superman? We

00:12:24.009 --> 00:12:27.440
are going to see. 13 seconds, Josh, as opposed

00:12:27.440 --> 00:12:29.159
to maybe what we saw against the Philadelphia

00:12:29.159 --> 00:12:33.559
Eagles a couple of weeks ago. I don't have very

00:12:33.559 --> 00:12:34.980
high confidence because I think we've talked

00:12:34.980 --> 00:12:37.000
about on the podcast throughout the season. He

00:12:37.000 --> 00:12:39.960
doesn't he he has not seemed like he's seeing

00:12:39.960 --> 00:12:42.840
the field like he has in previous seasons and

00:12:42.840 --> 00:12:45.039
not just to close out the season like you mentioned.

00:12:45.600 --> 00:12:48.519
It's it's been in other than the Kansas City

00:12:48.519 --> 00:12:52.220
game Cincinnati game. Yeah, Cincinnati game.

00:12:52.320 --> 00:12:54.870
And no, I would even consider. Other than the

00:12:54.870 --> 00:12:56.730
Kansas City game, I don't think I've seen a complete

00:12:56.730 --> 00:12:59.230
Josh Allen game, right? Like he's played incredible

00:12:59.230 --> 00:13:01.929
halves or quarters of football. I haven't seen

00:13:01.929 --> 00:13:04.169
a game where he had complete control of himself,

00:13:04.330 --> 00:13:07.070
the offense, the team as it moved on the field,

00:13:07.269 --> 00:13:10.820
other than the KC game. And so. And because it's

00:13:10.820 --> 00:13:12.759
been a half, right? Like, he had an amazing half

00:13:12.759 --> 00:13:14.899
against the Bengals. He had an amazing half against

00:13:14.899 --> 00:13:18.100
the Patriots. He had an amazing seven minutes

00:13:18.100 --> 00:13:21.159
against the Ravens, right? Like, it's been fits

00:13:21.159 --> 00:13:24.340
and starts and spurts. But I feel like he's been

00:13:24.340 --> 00:13:26.559
one of 17 where he's put together a complete

00:13:26.559 --> 00:13:28.840
game and seemed to be in control. Some of that

00:13:28.840 --> 00:13:31.139
I absolutely know is the options in the wide

00:13:31.139 --> 00:13:33.879
receiver room. Some of that I know is absolutely

00:13:33.879 --> 00:13:36.980
Joe Brady's limitations as a play caller. But...

00:13:37.039 --> 00:13:39.620
Some of it is also Josh Allen. I think that it

00:13:39.620 --> 00:13:43.379
feels like it's blasphemous to be talking about

00:13:43.379 --> 00:13:46.120
Josh Allen in that way, but I think it's worthwhile

00:13:46.120 --> 00:13:50.559
to criticize what has been a up -and -down inconsistent

00:13:50.559 --> 00:13:53.360
year from him. I mean, he's taken the most acts

00:13:53.360 --> 00:13:56.159
of his career. He's back up pretty high with

00:13:56.159 --> 00:13:59.179
turnovers again. I think that some of the flaws

00:13:59.179 --> 00:14:01.259
that you see in Josh Allen trying to do too much...

00:14:01.279 --> 00:14:04.340
making some mistakes are showing up in this hash

00:14:04.340 --> 00:14:06.559
have shown up in the season and may show up again

00:14:06.559 --> 00:14:09.620
in the playoffs. Because I do know that he he

00:14:09.620 --> 00:14:11.940
may feel that pressure, you know, trickling up

00:14:11.940 --> 00:14:13.960
of I've got to get this thing done. I've got

00:14:13.960 --> 00:14:16.200
to get a championship. Yeah. And that's always

00:14:16.200 --> 00:14:19.340
what you worry about is Sugar High Josh, the

00:14:19.340 --> 00:14:21.740
Josh that we thought was gone after his MVP season

00:14:21.740 --> 00:14:24.980
last year where he played almost impossibly efficient

00:14:24.980 --> 00:14:30.399
football this year. To say he has reverted, I

00:14:30.399 --> 00:14:32.480
think is a little bit of a trope at this point,

00:14:32.879 --> 00:14:36.480
but we have seen far more of his pre -MVP tendencies

00:14:36.480 --> 00:14:39.259
than we have his MVP season tendencies this year

00:14:39.259 --> 00:14:42.279
for sure. And JJ, you know, I think there's been

00:14:42.279 --> 00:14:43.960
some imperfections. You mentioned the scheme,

00:14:44.159 --> 00:14:47.019
you mentioned the personnel. You know, when I

00:14:47.019 --> 00:14:48.559
really dug into some of the numbers for this

00:14:48.559 --> 00:14:50.779
game, you know, I was curious, Josh's time to

00:14:50.779 --> 00:14:52.799
throw versus time to pressure and things like

00:14:52.799 --> 00:14:55.080
that. The offensive line is still giving him

00:14:55.080 --> 00:14:59.700
what he needs, a solid clean pocket, um, above

00:14:59.700 --> 00:15:02.240
league average time before pressure reaches him

00:15:02.240 --> 00:15:04.860
with the exception of a few really bad games.

00:15:05.039 --> 00:15:07.440
Like we saw against, um, Philadelphia recently,

00:15:07.840 --> 00:15:10.039
like we saw against like some really elite defensive

00:15:10.039 --> 00:15:12.769
lines like Houston, but. On the balance, this

00:15:12.769 --> 00:15:15.110
offensive line has done its job. Josh has had

00:15:15.110 --> 00:15:18.549
a clean pocket on 88 % of his dropbacks this

00:15:18.549 --> 00:15:21.129
year. That is number one in the league by far,

00:15:21.429 --> 00:15:24.710
according to FTN. And time to pressure is well

00:15:24.710 --> 00:15:28.350
above that 2 .5 seconds that is considered league

00:15:28.350 --> 00:15:30.350
average for quick pressure. I mean, the problem

00:15:30.350 --> 00:15:33.190
is Josh is hanging onto the ball. And we've seen

00:15:33.190 --> 00:15:35.649
him, you know, Joe Brady made such a weird comment.

00:15:36.009 --> 00:15:38.370
Um, I think it was heading into the jets game.

00:15:38.690 --> 00:15:41.289
He, someone in the media had asked him, you know,

00:15:41.509 --> 00:15:45.830
what do you see about Josh's, um, pre snap reads

00:15:45.830 --> 00:15:47.350
that concerns you? And they were talking about

00:15:47.350 --> 00:15:49.830
the pressure. He's seen the number of free rushers

00:15:49.830 --> 00:15:52.210
that are coming off the line of scrimmage all

00:15:52.210 --> 00:15:53.830
the time. And you and I have talked about it

00:15:53.830 --> 00:15:56.149
too. And Brady's comment was that he thought

00:15:56.149 --> 00:16:00.029
Alan was operating an elite level pre snap at

00:16:00.029 --> 00:16:03.700
this point in the season. I mean, I. I was eating

00:16:03.700 --> 00:16:05.980
when I heard that comment. I almost choked on

00:16:05.980 --> 00:16:08.340
what I was eating because I mean, it's it you

00:16:08.340 --> 00:16:10.659
just watch the film you even watch the broadcast

00:16:10.659 --> 00:16:12.960
and you know it's not true. You don't see the

00:16:12.960 --> 00:16:14.980
percentage of free rushers coming off the line

00:16:14.980 --> 00:16:17.299
that the bills do. If you have a QB who is a

00:16:17.299 --> 00:16:19.720
leader calling out protections pre snap, you

00:16:19.720 --> 00:16:23.279
don't see a QB who struggles to hit his first

00:16:23.279 --> 00:16:27.309
read like Josh does. when his pre -snap reads

00:16:27.309 --> 00:16:30.090
are supposedly elite. I mean, listen, on the

00:16:30.090 --> 00:16:32.629
other side of the ball here with Trevor Lawrence,

00:16:32.850 --> 00:16:35.429
I would argue in this Liam Cohen offense, he

00:16:35.429 --> 00:16:37.909
is actually operating in an elite level pre -snap.

00:16:38.110 --> 00:16:41.600
Cohen has put a ton on Lawrence's plate. to read

00:16:41.600 --> 00:16:44.879
protections and figure out where his best route

00:16:44.879 --> 00:16:47.639
success is ultimately going to be. And Lawrence

00:16:47.639 --> 00:16:50.360
has delivered by and large on a lot of that stuff.

00:16:50.820 --> 00:16:53.700
Lawrence currently is third in the league in

00:16:53.700 --> 00:16:56.539
overall number of past attempts off of his first

00:16:56.539 --> 00:16:59.700
read. That tells me. He is operating properly

00:16:59.700 --> 00:17:02.960
pre -snap. What he is seeing pre -snap is developing

00:17:02.960 --> 00:17:06.180
in front of his eyes post -snap and he is trusting

00:17:06.180 --> 00:17:09.140
his wide receivers in his first read. JJ, Josh

00:17:09.140 --> 00:17:11.339
on the other side of that, 22nd in the league

00:17:11.339 --> 00:17:14.160
in first read attempts. Now, Josh has never been,

00:17:14.299 --> 00:17:16.799
been a huge first read QB. I think the highest

00:17:16.799 --> 00:17:19.319
he's ever ranked in the league is like 15th,

00:17:19.319 --> 00:17:21.779
right? Cause he's always big play hunting. Exactly.

00:17:21.940 --> 00:17:24.019
He's always looking for something downfield.

00:17:24.079 --> 00:17:26.450
He's always big play hunting. But this Brady

00:17:26.450 --> 00:17:28.569
scheme, like something has to give in this game.

00:17:29.029 --> 00:17:32.349
You either need to, as Josh succumb to the way

00:17:32.349 --> 00:17:35.109
Brady wants the scheme, which is three step drop,

00:17:35.250 --> 00:17:37.809
five step drop, get the ball out quickly. Like

00:17:37.809 --> 00:17:39.789
Mitch Trubisky did against the Jets. Granted

00:17:39.789 --> 00:17:42.230
it was against the Jets, right? Trust your first

00:17:42.230 --> 00:17:43.990
read, particularly if it's Dalton Kincaid or

00:17:43.990 --> 00:17:46.910
Dawson Knox or Khalil Shakir and let your playmakers

00:17:46.910 --> 00:17:49.369
do something with the ball. The reason why I

00:17:49.369 --> 00:17:52.849
kind of share your lack of confidence is because

00:17:52.849 --> 00:17:56.339
I have yet to see. in a 17 game sample, Josh

00:17:56.339 --> 00:17:59.400
be able to trust that. And at some point, like

00:17:59.400 --> 00:18:02.000
I get he might not trust the weapons around him.

00:18:02.279 --> 00:18:03.940
But you got to dance with who got you there.

00:18:04.980 --> 00:18:08.440
Like, not like, you know, john brown, Cole Beasley,

00:18:08.660 --> 00:18:10.700
Stefan Diggs ain't walking through that door

00:18:10.700 --> 00:18:13.440
anytime soon. You got to make it work with some

00:18:13.440 --> 00:18:16.019
combination of Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid,

00:18:16.140 --> 00:18:18.950
should he be healthy. Dawson Knox and then some

00:18:18.950 --> 00:18:21.309
amalgamation on the outside of Brandon Cook's

00:18:21.309 --> 00:18:24.009
Keon Coleman or Gabe Davis like you just need

00:18:24.009 --> 00:18:26.849
to commit to that and Kind of go out on your

00:18:26.849 --> 00:18:29.250
shield with it because the way Josh has been

00:18:29.250 --> 00:18:31.809
Managing things pre and post snap up until this

00:18:31.809 --> 00:18:34.109
point to your point has prevented this Bill's

00:18:34.109 --> 00:18:36.529
offense from really playing a complete game No,

00:18:36.569 --> 00:18:38.730
hang on. Hold on. Are you absolutely certain

00:18:38.730 --> 00:18:41.650
that John Brown or Cole Beasley? or Manuel Sanders

00:18:41.650 --> 00:18:43.769
aren't coming through that door. I mean, I'm

00:18:43.769 --> 00:18:45.750
sure the bills. I'm sure the bills have reached

00:18:45.750 --> 00:18:49.630
out. Yeah. They call you in shape or you just

00:18:49.630 --> 00:18:52.109
do a rap rap career right now. I know. Right.

00:18:52.190 --> 00:18:54.230
We don't require the covid vaccine anymore. You

00:18:54.230 --> 00:18:56.809
can come out of retirement. Right. But it's but

00:18:56.809 --> 00:18:59.750
it's crazy to think about this because. It's

00:18:59.750 --> 00:19:02.109
making it seem like we feel like Josh has been

00:19:02.109 --> 00:19:04.549
the biggest impediment to the success of this

00:19:04.549 --> 00:19:07.150
team. And that's not true, right? That is not

00:19:07.150 --> 00:19:09.509
true at all. The games that the Bills have won

00:19:09.509 --> 00:19:12.349
by and large. The majority of them has, have

00:19:12.349 --> 00:19:15.769
been because Josh has been able to do quote unquote

00:19:15.769 --> 00:19:18.269
Josh Allen things. And the reason why the bills

00:19:18.269 --> 00:19:20.710
are even in this spot to be in the postseason

00:19:20.710 --> 00:19:23.190
for the umpteenth consecutive time is because

00:19:23.190 --> 00:19:25.730
we have Josh Allen. And he's a reason why we've

00:19:25.730 --> 00:19:28.329
got the Superbowl odds that we do. So this is

00:19:28.329 --> 00:19:30.509
not to say that Josh is an impediment to the

00:19:30.509 --> 00:19:32.730
success of this team, but if this is going to

00:19:32.730 --> 00:19:36.700
be more of a successful whole team win. as opposed

00:19:36.700 --> 00:19:39.380
to in a balanced attack. Right. I think that's

00:19:39.380 --> 00:19:40.960
what I'm getting at. If this is really going

00:19:40.960 --> 00:19:43.500
to be a balanced Buffalo Bills attack, like we

00:19:43.500 --> 00:19:46.039
saw last season, Josh is going to have to make

00:19:46.039 --> 00:19:48.440
some concessions in his tendencies that he has

00:19:48.440 --> 00:19:50.900
put on film, I think, in order to take advantage

00:19:50.900 --> 00:19:54.160
of the specific weaknesses of this Jacksonville

00:19:54.160 --> 00:19:56.019
Jaguars defense. I think we'll be able to tell

00:19:56.019 --> 00:19:58.359
pretty quick into the game what his self study

00:19:58.359 --> 00:20:01.299
or self scouting did, if anything, like if it

00:20:01.299 --> 00:20:04.200
if it. Made him kind of think a little bit harder

00:20:04.200 --> 00:20:07.200
about that first first hit read We'll be able

00:20:07.200 --> 00:20:09.839
to tell pretty quick because I mean I was just

00:20:09.839 --> 00:20:11.880
as you were talking about, you know, Trubisky

00:20:11.880 --> 00:20:14.319
the way Trubisky played against the Jets And

00:20:14.319 --> 00:20:16.740
you're talking about kind of how the Josh we've

00:20:16.740 --> 00:20:19.359
seen in years past I just thought of dables offense

00:20:19.359 --> 00:20:21.700
and I think a lot of it. It's two things It's

00:20:21.700 --> 00:20:24.500
not having trust in the wide receiver room and

00:20:24.500 --> 00:20:27.319
it's also Maybe not having trust in the play

00:20:27.549 --> 00:20:30.269
play design, because Josh Allen, when he was

00:20:30.269 --> 00:20:32.309
under Dave's in his like huge blow up year in

00:20:32.309 --> 00:20:35.430
2020 and 2021, he was like, he was on, right?

00:20:35.490 --> 00:20:37.470
Like he set his protections, he hit his back

00:20:37.470 --> 00:20:39.710
foot, wasn't always his first read, but it was

00:20:39.710 --> 00:20:42.369
not usually his third, right? And now I feel

00:20:42.369 --> 00:20:44.849
like you see him searching and seeking and spinning

00:20:44.849 --> 00:20:46.809
out of pressure and trying to find something

00:20:46.809 --> 00:20:49.009
to do with the football way more often because

00:20:49.009 --> 00:20:52.009
I don't think the weapons that he needs to like

00:20:52.009 --> 00:20:54.470
trust and be confident are there. So he's taking

00:20:54.470 --> 00:20:56.049
sacks, right? He's taking sacks. He's throwing,

00:20:56.049 --> 00:20:58.329
you know, uncharacteristic picks and stuff like

00:20:58.329 --> 00:21:02.150
that. It's interesting. There is, you know, can

00:21:02.150 --> 00:21:03.589
we talk about the continue to talk about the

00:21:03.589 --> 00:21:06.309
Jags defense a little bit with this? So, yeah,

00:21:06.390 --> 00:21:10.230
I think we we've said, you know. Summary, Cliff's

00:21:10.230 --> 00:21:13.130
notes of the Josh Allen segment. We we love Josh.

00:21:13.470 --> 00:21:15.210
The Bills would not be anywhere close to the

00:21:15.210 --> 00:21:16.769
playoffs if it weren't for him as their quarterback.

00:21:16.970 --> 00:21:20.309
He is probably the best, most talented quarterback.

00:21:20.670 --> 00:21:24.789
Him, you know, effort maybe. End of list. Right.

00:21:25.250 --> 00:21:28.089
Like Drake Mays hasn't has a great year, but

00:21:28.089 --> 00:21:30.890
they had you. I like Drake May more than you

00:21:30.890 --> 00:21:33.750
do. I could tell. I think he's I think he's super

00:21:33.750 --> 00:21:36.920
talented. I think he's great. Yeah, I don't hate

00:21:36.920 --> 00:21:38.420
him. I don't dislike him. I think he's great.

00:21:38.420 --> 00:21:39.960
For me, it's the same thing I said to Brandon

00:21:39.960 --> 00:21:41.099
when we had him on the pod. You just need to

00:21:41.099 --> 00:21:43.059
be consistent. You just see it more often than

00:21:43.059 --> 00:21:45.859
one year, right? But yeah, he's had an excellent

00:21:45.859 --> 00:21:47.940
year. So other than those three quarterbacks,

00:21:48.000 --> 00:21:50.619
I can't think of a QB in the playoffs that's

00:21:50.619 --> 00:21:54.759
super intimidating, right? And so we love Josh

00:21:54.759 --> 00:21:56.960
Allen. He has not been consistent this year.

00:21:56.980 --> 00:21:59.480
He hasn't shown us what the Bills need him to

00:21:59.480 --> 00:22:02.299
show in order to be efficient, productive, and

00:22:02.299 --> 00:22:05.460
consistent on offense. And that's going to really

00:22:05.460 --> 00:22:07.240
that's going to be a big piece of what this comes

00:22:07.240 --> 00:22:10.259
down to is if at any point in time the Bills

00:22:10.259 --> 00:22:12.799
rushing attack is not working, Josh Allen's got

00:22:12.799 --> 00:22:15.160
to make an efficient passing attack that can

00:22:15.160 --> 00:22:17.059
move the ball down the field. And it might look

00:22:17.059 --> 00:22:19.279
like a dink and dunk, but you know, first downs

00:22:19.279 --> 00:22:21.670
over touchdowns like. Tom Brady always used to

00:22:21.670 --> 00:22:23.829
say, right? Always. And take the free yards.

00:22:24.069 --> 00:22:27.609
And I think that's the thing, the piece of, again,

00:22:27.730 --> 00:22:29.509
regression is such a strong word because he's

00:22:29.509 --> 00:22:32.170
still played at an MVP caliber level this season.

00:22:32.490 --> 00:22:34.970
But I think the biggest difference in his game

00:22:34.970 --> 00:22:36.990
and his skittishness in the pocket this year

00:22:36.990 --> 00:22:39.089
has been that he's been unwilling to take the

00:22:39.089 --> 00:22:41.069
free yards the teams were giving him last year.

00:22:41.150 --> 00:22:43.089
Now at some times when I look at it on the film

00:22:43.089 --> 00:22:45.609
and I see James Cook flash out of the backfield

00:22:45.609 --> 00:22:48.750
or I see Shakir come open in the flat, I also

00:22:48.750 --> 00:22:52.309
see a DB or a linebacker about three, four yards

00:22:52.309 --> 00:22:54.410
behind them. And I know immediately there's no

00:22:54.410 --> 00:22:56.609
yak opportunity there. And I know that that's

00:22:56.609 --> 00:22:59.329
what Josh is thinking too, but at some point,

00:22:59.730 --> 00:23:01.990
like take those four yards on first down, take

00:23:01.990 --> 00:23:04.309
those four yards on second down, because it's

00:23:04.309 --> 00:23:07.349
a lot better to be third and plus four or second

00:23:07.349 --> 00:23:09.349
and plus four from where you were there, as opposed

00:23:09.349 --> 00:23:11.849
to throwing a 30 yard in completion downfield

00:23:11.849 --> 00:23:14.990
to a double covered wide receiver. Right. Um,

00:23:15.089 --> 00:23:19.779
man, JJ, I just, I. Like this Jaguars defense,

00:23:20.039 --> 00:23:24.859
as we continue to dig into it, they, they honestly,

00:23:25.200 --> 00:23:28.319
they have had some. I don't want to say inconsistent

00:23:28.319 --> 00:23:30.259
moments, but they've been a lot higher variance,

00:23:30.259 --> 00:23:31.920
I think, than the aggregate numbers would lead

00:23:31.920 --> 00:23:34.859
you to believe. Like over this eight game winning

00:23:34.859 --> 00:23:37.779
streak that they've had, they have allowed four

00:23:37.779 --> 00:23:41.299
QBs in that time to go for over 270 passing yards,

00:23:41.579 --> 00:23:44.240
despite the fact that when it comes to DVOA,

00:23:44.519 --> 00:23:47.059
they're a top 11, they're a top 10 type of pass

00:23:47.059 --> 00:23:49.559
defense. JJ, those QBs have been Geno Smith,

00:23:49.880 --> 00:23:53.299
CJ Stroud, Jacoby Berset, and Bo Nix, right?

00:23:53.579 --> 00:23:56.269
Do we not think Josh Allen? If push comes to

00:23:56.269 --> 00:23:58.609
shove in this rush, defense is shut down. Can't

00:23:58.609 --> 00:24:01.269
put together a 270 plus yard game against this

00:24:01.269 --> 00:24:03.210
Jags defense. Like, really? Is that where we're

00:24:03.210 --> 00:24:06.490
at? Yeah, no, we're not there. And and but this

00:24:06.490 --> 00:24:08.970
is the thing. This is where the like weird voodoo

00:24:08.970 --> 00:24:11.890
mama juju stuff of the Jaguars comes in. This

00:24:11.890 --> 00:24:14.329
team has some weird hacks like on the bills when

00:24:14.329 --> 00:24:17.849
they come into that stadium. Like it's the Urban

00:24:17.849 --> 00:24:21.789
Meyer Jaguars beat the Bills. The Bills lost

00:24:21.789 --> 00:24:24.950
to the Jaguars in Tottenham Stadium in London.

00:24:25.160 --> 00:24:28.400
and lost multiple defensive starters for the

00:24:28.400 --> 00:24:30.539
whole season that game. Like, I don't know what

00:24:30.539 --> 00:24:32.579
it is, but every time there's like a dark cloud

00:24:32.579 --> 00:24:34.000
that follows these bills when they play against

00:24:34.000 --> 00:24:36.819
the Jaguars. It's like somebody, you know, took

00:24:36.819 --> 00:24:39.759
it's like OJ Simpson threw the bloody knife underneath

00:24:39.759 --> 00:24:41.740
the Jaguar Stadium as it was being built. Right.

00:24:41.799 --> 00:24:44.640
Like something happened to tie these two franchises

00:24:44.640 --> 00:24:48.440
together. He's dead. He's dead. It's fine. It's

00:24:48.440 --> 00:24:52.920
fine. We all know we did it. Yes, so Yes, Simpson

00:24:52.920 --> 00:24:55.140
estate, please don't sue this podcast. We're

00:24:55.140 --> 00:24:56.980
sponsored by no one and have no money. We have

00:24:56.980 --> 00:25:00.740
nothing we have absolutely nothing So that all

00:25:00.740 --> 00:25:04.259
said in jest, of course Is that there's something

00:25:04.259 --> 00:25:06.079
weird that ties these, you know, I'm not usually

00:25:06.079 --> 00:25:08.819
a vibes guy But in this situation, I absolutely

00:25:08.819 --> 00:25:11.180
am like really worried about the game because

00:25:11.180 --> 00:25:13.730
of the matchup because of the team And it's not

00:25:13.730 --> 00:25:16.950
like the KC matchup worries that we always have.

00:25:17.309 --> 00:25:21.130
The Bills have had utter defeats and heart -breaking

00:25:21.130 --> 00:25:23.809
losses at Kansas City, but we always know that

00:25:23.809 --> 00:25:27.029
they're going to show up, right? Since 2021,

00:25:27.309 --> 00:25:29.690
the Bills have not been blown out by Kansas City.

00:25:29.930 --> 00:25:33.809
It's not been a thing. We see that one of their

00:25:33.809 --> 00:25:36.009
best shots, often the defense lets them down,

00:25:36.349 --> 00:25:39.309
but we know it's going to be a game. I'm afraid.

00:25:39.490 --> 00:25:41.930
I'm afraid that this Jaguars game, like even

00:25:41.930 --> 00:25:43.609
though they're defensive, they've padded their

00:25:43.609 --> 00:25:45.269
defensive stats against inferior quarterbacks.

00:25:45.369 --> 00:25:47.329
I totally agree with that. Even though they have

00:25:47.329 --> 00:25:50.730
a kind of a weird turnover differential that's

00:25:50.730 --> 00:25:53.210
insanely high and characteristically high and

00:25:53.210 --> 00:25:55.250
their offensive production is largely dependent

00:25:55.250 --> 00:25:57.690
on it as any team would be with that level of

00:25:57.690 --> 00:26:00.009
turnovers, interceptions, fumbles, etc. And to

00:26:00.009 --> 00:26:03.069
that to that note, there's a YouTuber. who I'm

00:26:03.069 --> 00:26:04.849
going to give a shout out to Michael McKelvey.

00:26:04.930 --> 00:26:06.509
Have you ever watched his stuff? Yeah, yeah,

00:26:06.509 --> 00:26:08.430
yeah. Yeah. He does like the super in -depth

00:26:08.430 --> 00:26:10.430
analysis on things like the rubber band effect,

00:26:10.450 --> 00:26:12.569
why teams feel look like they're playing better

00:26:12.569 --> 00:26:14.450
when they're losing by a bunch and why the good

00:26:14.450 --> 00:26:16.210
team that came out to a huge lead looks terrible

00:26:16.210 --> 00:26:19.009
and like the statistics and raw data behind that.

00:26:19.089 --> 00:26:22.109
It's awesome. He did a does defense wins championships.

00:26:22.109 --> 00:26:24.410
I watched the whole thing and it brilliantly.

00:26:24.410 --> 00:26:27.650
He boiled it down to the statistics and data

00:26:27.650 --> 00:26:30.190
would show you defense does win championships,

00:26:30.230 --> 00:26:33.079
but specifically fumble luck. which is an impossible

00:26:33.079 --> 00:26:36.240
thing to you can be good at punch outs, but the

00:26:36.240 --> 00:26:39.119
ball bouncing into your players arms is that

00:26:39.119 --> 00:26:41.200
completely random. That's a roll of the dice.

00:26:41.619 --> 00:26:44.960
And but he really found that the teams that had

00:26:44.960 --> 00:26:47.619
fumbles in their favor that they recovered more

00:26:47.619 --> 00:26:49.579
than other teams almost always went to the Super

00:26:49.579 --> 00:26:51.740
Bowl in the seasons of the playoffs compared

00:26:51.740 --> 00:26:54.799
to the field. So that's something that the Jaguars

00:26:54.799 --> 00:26:56.680
currently have. But that doesn't always mean

00:26:56.680 --> 00:26:58.220
they're going to have it in the playoffs. JJ,

00:26:58.339 --> 00:27:00.680
do you know what team led the league last season

00:27:00.680 --> 00:27:02.920
in fumble luck? Was it the bills? It was the

00:27:02.920 --> 00:27:05.220
bills. Yeah. It was the bills. They led the league

00:27:05.220 --> 00:27:08.140
last year in fumble luck. Yes. Percentage of

00:27:08.140 --> 00:27:10.380
fumbles recovered versus percentage of balls

00:27:10.380 --> 00:27:13.180
lost. Yes, it was. It was the Buffalo Bills.

00:27:13.519 --> 00:27:16.299
And I haven't seen that specific thing, but I've

00:27:16.299 --> 00:27:18.519
heard a lot about fumble luck. It's also not

00:27:18.519 --> 00:27:21.380
a pure regression stat. It is a pure luck stat.

00:27:21.680 --> 00:27:24.279
So if you have good fumble luck one year, doesn't

00:27:24.279 --> 00:27:26.299
necessarily mean you're not going to have good

00:27:26.299 --> 00:27:28.519
fumble luck the following year. It is completely

00:27:28.519 --> 00:27:32.319
random from year to year, right? That's crazy.

00:27:32.519 --> 00:27:35.160
I love it be the first one one season and 28

00:27:35.160 --> 00:27:37.279
the next and then seventh or third, you know

00:27:37.279 --> 00:27:39.319
Yeah, it's all over the map. Exactly. Exactly.

00:27:39.380 --> 00:27:41.279
And again, that's not that's no disrespect to

00:27:41.279 --> 00:27:44.680
the Jags, right? But as a defense over the past

00:27:44.680 --> 00:27:47.599
I would say three seasons in Buffalo that we

00:27:47.599 --> 00:27:50.099
have seen really feast or famine when it comes

00:27:50.099 --> 00:27:53.619
to turnover luck We know that if you can take

00:27:53.619 --> 00:27:55.900
care of the ball against this Jags this Jags

00:27:55.900 --> 00:27:58.440
defense, it gives you better than a puncher's

00:27:58.440 --> 00:28:00.240
chance to really come out ahead as an offense.

00:28:01.339 --> 00:28:03.880
Um, JJ, speaking of defense, you want to switch

00:28:03.880 --> 00:28:05.680
gears here and talk about the Buffalo Bills.

00:28:06.019 --> 00:28:10.420
Is it improving defense? So I, I, as I was doing

00:28:10.420 --> 00:28:12.119
research for this pod, I listened to some of

00:28:12.119 --> 00:28:15.039
our usuals, right? Piscalia, um, Marino, both

00:28:15.039 --> 00:28:19.150
Marino's, um, the shout guys. And there's a lot

00:28:19.150 --> 00:28:22.250
of like honing in on the past five weeks or so

00:28:22.250 --> 00:28:24.730
to say, and a lot of folks saying that this Buffalo

00:28:24.730 --> 00:28:26.750
Bills defense is really kind of coming into its

00:28:26.750 --> 00:28:28.809
own, particularly with its improvement in the

00:28:28.809 --> 00:28:31.450
run D. I don't know that that's necessarily the

00:28:31.450 --> 00:28:34.490
case on the latter point, but I will say Taron

00:28:34.490 --> 00:28:36.970
Johnson has gotten healthier as the season has

00:28:36.970 --> 00:28:39.049
gone on and his coverage has improved and the

00:28:39.049 --> 00:28:41.450
Bills are going to need it against the Jags.

00:28:41.730 --> 00:28:43.869
Christian Benford has been playing at an elite

00:28:43.869 --> 00:28:46.009
level when he has been on the field here towards

00:28:46.009 --> 00:28:48.970
the end of the season. feel good about him. And

00:28:48.970 --> 00:28:50.589
Trey White, we know we're not going to have Max

00:28:50.589 --> 00:28:54.470
Harrison for this, but Trey White, since the

00:28:54.470 --> 00:28:57.190
bye, has really played, I would argue, some of

00:28:57.190 --> 00:29:00.109
his best football since his first stint with

00:29:00.109 --> 00:29:02.650
the Buffalo Bills. Terrell Bernard going to be

00:29:02.650 --> 00:29:04.670
out for this game, but the linebacker core seems

00:29:04.670 --> 00:29:06.769
to solidify with Shaq Thompson getting healthier,

00:29:07.109 --> 00:29:09.509
Matt Malano getting healthier. And then JJ, the

00:29:09.509 --> 00:29:11.769
defensive line, we got a healthy Joey Bosa knock

00:29:11.769 --> 00:29:13.869
on wood coming into this game, and a healthy

00:29:13.869 --> 00:29:16.440
Greg Rousseau. The Bills' defensive numbers and

00:29:16.440 --> 00:29:18.759
they are what they are. And when you drill down

00:29:18.759 --> 00:29:20.859
on the last 10 weeks, you know, you look at some

00:29:20.859 --> 00:29:24.099
of their advanced metrics, they still stink at

00:29:24.099 --> 00:29:26.480
defending the run. They're still 32nd in the

00:29:26.480 --> 00:29:29.660
league in overall DVOA and EPA per play and success

00:29:29.660 --> 00:29:32.339
rate, 32 across the board. But there have been

00:29:32.339 --> 00:29:35.740
some bright spots here. JJ, this is, as we have

00:29:35.740 --> 00:29:38.920
said, a high octane Jacksonville Jaguars offense

00:29:38.920 --> 00:29:41.700
and a QB that is operating. I consider an elite

00:29:41.700 --> 00:29:44.880
level in this offense in Trevor Lawrence. Is

00:29:44.880 --> 00:29:49.500
the Bills defense bringing enough guns to this

00:29:49.500 --> 00:29:52.740
gunfight to stifle or even stymie this Jacksonville

00:29:52.740 --> 00:29:57.759
Jaguars attack? So I watched a number of the

00:29:57.759 --> 00:30:02.079
Jaguars games and they did a lot of stat padding

00:30:02.079 --> 00:30:05.900
against teams like the Titans. They played some

00:30:05.900 --> 00:30:08.640
pretty poor competition in a number of the games

00:30:08.640 --> 00:30:14.279
during their nine win or eight win streak. I

00:30:14.279 --> 00:30:16.259
know that that's still real, right? The Bills

00:30:16.259 --> 00:30:19.259
have, you know, trounced lesser teams and that's

00:30:19.259 --> 00:30:20.960
added to their, you know, overall statistics

00:30:20.960 --> 00:30:22.920
and still been a highly competitive team. Or

00:30:22.920 --> 00:30:24.960
they play down and lose. Yeah, not this year.

00:30:25.019 --> 00:30:27.380
Not this year. Years prior, years prior. And

00:30:27.380 --> 00:30:29.500
last year, in fact, one of the teams that they

00:30:29.500 --> 00:30:31.640
absolutely decimated was the Jaguars, right?

00:30:31.759 --> 00:30:34.839
Like three. Yeah. And so there's a little bit

00:30:34.839 --> 00:30:37.660
of that. So I'm like, is this, you know, is the

00:30:37.660 --> 00:30:41.170
offense fool's gold? It's not. They have answers

00:30:41.170 --> 00:30:43.789
for a lot of things. I think Liam Cohen is an

00:30:43.789 --> 00:30:46.450
excellent play caller. And that excellent play

00:30:46.450 --> 00:30:49.009
caller paired with a very skilled quarterback

00:30:49.009 --> 00:30:52.210
is the kryptonite for any Sean McDermott defense,

00:30:52.369 --> 00:30:54.849
especially one when he's leading a team that

00:30:54.849 --> 00:30:57.730
has 16 players on injury on their injury report

00:30:57.730 --> 00:31:00.430
this week. Like that's the part I don't that

00:31:00.430 --> 00:31:01.869
that's the part that I don't know that there's

00:31:01.869 --> 00:31:04.670
a solution for. And it seems like the cruelest

00:31:04.670 --> 00:31:07.230
of all of the looks is that the Bills can't seem

00:31:07.230 --> 00:31:10.059
to play a playoff game. with their preferred

00:31:10.059 --> 00:31:13.200
starting defense. Hasn't happened. Or even, not

00:31:13.200 --> 00:31:14.940
even that, because most teams don't at this time

00:31:14.940 --> 00:31:16.819
of the year, right? Like defenses, the injury

00:31:16.819 --> 00:31:19.079
percentage is 100 % for players in the league

00:31:19.079 --> 00:31:22.720
over their career. It's that the Bills haven't

00:31:22.720 --> 00:31:27.019
brought more than eight of their starting 11

00:31:27.019 --> 00:31:30.759
to the field in any playoff game that I can remember.

00:31:30.960 --> 00:31:32.980
They just elevated Bale and Specter. I don't

00:31:32.980 --> 00:31:35.259
think Shaq Thompson is going to go like that.

00:31:35.380 --> 00:31:38.500
That is terrible. That is bad news. They lose

00:31:38.500 --> 00:31:41.980
Max Hairston on a freak high ankle sprain in

00:31:41.980 --> 00:31:44.829
like the. bladder half of the Jets game, right?

00:31:45.069 --> 00:31:47.769
Like this, they, you know, of course we know

00:31:47.769 --> 00:31:50.630
Ed Oliver's out, Michael Hoyk's out. They're

00:31:50.630 --> 00:31:52.490
not going to get those players back. Daquan Jones

00:31:52.490 --> 00:31:56.250
is like limping on a busted calf. Tarell Bernard.

00:31:56.289 --> 00:31:59.109
Tarell Bernard is out. Yeah. So this, this rosy

00:31:59.109 --> 00:32:00.950
picture I painted of, Hey man, are things coming

00:32:00.950 --> 00:32:02.950
together at the right time for the defense? You're

00:32:02.950 --> 00:32:05.029
like, no, no, that's not happening. No, they're,

00:32:05.029 --> 00:32:07.130
they're not. I will say this though. players

00:32:07.130 --> 00:32:09.309
like Cole Bishop, Jordan Poirier, Trey White

00:32:09.309 --> 00:32:11.210
turning it on, Christian Benford turning it on,

00:32:11.309 --> 00:32:13.630
you're going to see exceptional individual efforts

00:32:13.630 --> 00:32:16.690
from those guys and that will matter. I don't

00:32:16.690 --> 00:32:20.049
think that their past defense is fool's gold

00:32:20.049 --> 00:32:22.390
for the Bills. I think the past defense is legitimate.

00:32:22.549 --> 00:32:24.849
It's number one in the league. They have consistency

00:32:24.849 --> 00:32:26.769
throughout the year. They cannot stop the run.

00:32:26.910 --> 00:32:28.589
It's not just because teams can just run all

00:32:28.589 --> 00:32:30.549
over on them because they've also, you know,

00:32:30.609 --> 00:32:33.210
they also won 12 games. So it's not possibly

00:32:33.210 --> 00:32:36.920
that they give up. rushing yards to the to the

00:32:36.920 --> 00:32:39.200
fact that they pad the the teams are not passing

00:32:39.200 --> 00:32:41.839
on them, which is kind of a thing that the Jaguars

00:32:41.839 --> 00:32:44.000
people are talking about. The Jaguars run defense,

00:32:44.000 --> 00:32:46.579
right? That nobody's pat. Nobody's running on

00:32:46.579 --> 00:32:49.259
them because their offense has been very, very

00:32:49.259 --> 00:32:51.640
hot and gotten out to game script. Exactly. As

00:32:51.640 --> 00:32:54.960
you said prior in the pod. So I. I do think that

00:32:54.960 --> 00:32:57.259
the Bills pass defense is real. I don't think

00:32:57.259 --> 00:32:59.039
that the Bills rushing defense being shored up

00:32:59.039 --> 00:33:02.480
is real. I think that that's just, that's contextual

00:33:02.480 --> 00:33:04.779
because of who they faced, how they faced them,

00:33:05.079 --> 00:33:07.480
game script, and then some individual matchups,

00:33:07.599 --> 00:33:10.460
some players that, you know, and then inexplicably

00:33:10.460 --> 00:33:13.700
teams that just abandoned the run, like the Dolphins,

00:33:13.799 --> 00:33:18.420
you know, or the Patriots, you know, in the second

00:33:18.420 --> 00:33:21.589
half. inexplicably or just like, yeah, we're

00:33:21.589 --> 00:33:23.950
gonna just not do that. So yeah, without a doubt.

00:33:25.410 --> 00:33:27.970
Do you think the do you think the Jags are gonna

00:33:27.970 --> 00:33:30.109
it Trevor Lawrence is playing at such a high

00:33:30.109 --> 00:33:32.970
level and it seems almost it seems almost criminal

00:33:32.970 --> 00:33:35.250
to take the ball out of his hands. But do you

00:33:35.250 --> 00:33:37.130
think the Jags particularly early on in this

00:33:37.130 --> 00:33:38.849
game are going to test the spills run defense?

00:33:38.990 --> 00:33:41.809
I think it would be malpractice. Yeah, absolutely.

00:33:42.220 --> 00:33:45.039
Yeah. But, but this is a team too that I could

00:33:45.039 --> 00:33:47.740
see that JJ, this is a team that I could see

00:33:47.740 --> 00:33:49.940
choosing to get off the run real quick, depending

00:33:49.940 --> 00:33:51.880
on how Lawrence comes out for this game. If Lawrence

00:33:51.880 --> 00:33:54.140
comes out hot, I could see them really leaning

00:33:54.140 --> 00:33:56.819
on him and the rush, the rush game, not being

00:33:56.819 --> 00:33:59.319
a factor for the Jags, right? Sure. I mean, it's

00:33:59.319 --> 00:34:01.220
a, it's a, it's a rushing attack that I think

00:34:01.220 --> 00:34:03.259
has been high variance and inconsistent. They're

00:34:03.259 --> 00:34:06.359
sitting at 20th overall, I think an EPA per,

00:34:06.359 --> 00:34:09.139
per rush, which is not. great. They don't exactly

00:34:09.139 --> 00:34:11.380
have a mauling offensive line in the run game

00:34:11.380 --> 00:34:14.320
either, but the Bills have been kind of a panacea

00:34:14.320 --> 00:34:16.360
for a lot of teams that struggle with that kind

00:34:16.360 --> 00:34:19.420
of thing. But I could really see Cohen being

00:34:19.420 --> 00:34:22.559
the, flashy is not the right term, but he is

00:34:22.559 --> 00:34:24.820
a high leverage play caller. And I could see

00:34:24.820 --> 00:34:28.099
him leaning into his young up and coming, coming

00:34:28.099 --> 00:34:32.099
into his own QB in this game early on if Lawrence

00:34:32.099 --> 00:34:33.800
is kind of feeling it. I could see that too.

00:34:33.820 --> 00:34:38.800
And I think that, you know, expect as bills as

00:34:38.800 --> 00:34:42.360
bills mafia expect Liam Cohen and Trevor Lawrence

00:34:42.360 --> 00:34:44.440
especially if they end up getting the kickoff

00:34:44.440 --> 00:34:46.699
to start the game trying to come out and just

00:34:46.699 --> 00:34:48.860
like Dagger the bills through the heart straight

00:34:48.860 --> 00:34:51.480
out of the gate right like they are going to

00:34:51.480 --> 00:34:54.239
try to take the wind out of their sails as a

00:34:54.239 --> 00:34:57.239
Visiting team in this game and their house and

00:34:57.239 --> 00:34:58.980
they have all of these things on the line They've

00:34:58.980 --> 00:35:00.920
been crushing it for so many weeks in a row.

00:35:00.920 --> 00:35:04.760
I expect them to want to like deliver on a shot

00:35:04.760 --> 00:35:08.679
play or something very early to establish dominance

00:35:08.679 --> 00:35:10.539
in the game and try to take the spirit of the

00:35:10.539 --> 00:35:14.300
Bills out of it as a guest in their home. And

00:35:14.300 --> 00:35:15.920
so I could see them not running the ball for

00:35:15.920 --> 00:35:18.460
maybe the first quarter more than a few times

00:35:18.460 --> 00:35:20.360
if the pass is working, if they're just marching

00:35:20.360 --> 00:35:21.880
up and down the field with the short passing

00:35:21.880 --> 00:35:23.480
game and run after the catch, which actually

00:35:23.480 --> 00:35:25.800
it's interesting enough. Trevor Lawrence is like,

00:35:25.800 --> 00:35:28.099
what, 38th or something of quarterbacks run after

00:35:28.099 --> 00:35:30.260
the catch. That doesn't happen for him. It's

00:35:30.260 --> 00:35:32.820
about the design getting a player open in space,

00:35:33.159 --> 00:35:34.659
but coverage players are close enough that they're

00:35:34.659 --> 00:35:36.840
not really breaking them. Exactly. You know,

00:35:37.000 --> 00:35:40.440
JJ, let me put it more succinctly. I don't think

00:35:40.440 --> 00:35:42.719
based on what I've heard and all the pregame

00:35:42.719 --> 00:35:44.539
interviews, I don't think the Jacksonville Jaguars

00:35:44.539 --> 00:35:47.159
think they need to run the ball to beat the Buffalo

00:35:47.159 --> 00:35:49.280
Bills. Right. I think that's the level of confidence

00:35:49.280 --> 00:35:51.079
they are operating with right now. Well, and

00:35:51.079 --> 00:35:52.659
especially when they have, you know, they have

00:35:52.659 --> 00:35:55.780
Jacobi Myers, they have Brian BTJ, Brian Thomas

00:35:55.780 --> 00:35:57.980
Jr. They've got Parker Washington, who blew up

00:35:57.980 --> 00:36:00.920
out of nowhere and looks amazing this season.

00:36:01.480 --> 00:36:05.019
And then who's their tenant, Brenton Strange,

00:36:05.219 --> 00:36:07.599
Brenton Strange. Yeah. Love that kid. That kid's

00:36:07.599 --> 00:36:09.679
great. Oh, he's awesome. He can do, and he is

00:36:09.679 --> 00:36:11.460
a player who can do it all. He's, you know, 6

00:36:11.460 --> 00:36:14.300
'4", 250 and can block, can catch, has equal

00:36:14.300 --> 00:36:16.719
run block and receiving grades essentially. So

00:36:16.719 --> 00:36:20.639
yeah, I mean, they don't really have to do too

00:36:20.639 --> 00:36:24.559
much in terms of establishing the run with the

00:36:24.559 --> 00:36:26.940
matchups they're going to see against anyone

00:36:26.940 --> 00:36:29.860
against Trey White. And then anybody who's in

00:36:29.860 --> 00:36:32.139
a slaughter out of the backfield matched up against

00:36:32.139 --> 00:36:34.420
Milano or Thompson because they are older. Their

00:36:34.420 --> 00:36:36.599
coverage grades this season, their coverage ability

00:36:36.599 --> 00:36:40.760
has not been exceptional. And it's also interesting

00:36:40.760 --> 00:36:44.119
that, you know, what I think Milano has one interception,

00:36:44.440 --> 00:36:46.739
maybe Shaq Thompson might have one as well, but

00:36:46.739 --> 00:36:49.900
neither of them has has been excellent in coverage

00:36:49.900 --> 00:36:51.460
and Shaq Thompson might not even be there. It

00:36:51.460 --> 00:36:53.900
might be Matt Milano and Bailen Specter, which

00:36:53.900 --> 00:36:56.550
they can pick on him. all day with tight ends

00:36:56.550 --> 00:36:59.210
and running backs. Yeah, if Bale Inspector has

00:36:59.210 --> 00:37:01.269
to play any meaningful snaps, this is going to

00:37:01.269 --> 00:37:05.170
be Kyler, Kyra Elam 2 .0 in the postseason. I

00:37:05.170 --> 00:37:07.210
mean, they're just going to relentlessly target

00:37:07.210 --> 00:37:09.610
him. I think they're going to look to get Myers

00:37:09.610 --> 00:37:11.949
matched up as much as humanly possible on Taron

00:37:11.949 --> 00:37:15.710
Johnson too. I mean, Myers has just been a merchant

00:37:15.710 --> 00:37:17.869
in the middle of the field for them, which is

00:37:17.869 --> 00:37:20.429
freed up Brian Thomas Jr. to your point earlier,

00:37:20.489 --> 00:37:22.730
just to own the boundary for this particular

00:37:22.730 --> 00:37:24.730
team. And then Parker Washington. as they're

00:37:24.730 --> 00:37:27.469
kind of do it all possession guy with some explosive

00:37:27.469 --> 00:37:29.710
capability all over the field. I mean, it's,

00:37:29.710 --> 00:37:31.909
it's going to be dicey. I've got confidence that

00:37:31.909 --> 00:37:34.389
the bills, even without Max Harrison can figure

00:37:34.389 --> 00:37:36.690
out a way to deal with it, but this is going

00:37:36.690 --> 00:37:39.710
to be like a chess match McDermott and Babbage

00:37:39.710 --> 00:37:42.789
versus Liam Cohen and figuring out who to place

00:37:42.789 --> 00:37:45.150
where and what matchups to try to get for yourself.

00:37:45.590 --> 00:37:47.559
I mean it. is a pure football fan. I think it's

00:37:47.559 --> 00:37:49.179
going to be a lot of fun to watch. As a Bills

00:37:49.179 --> 00:37:51.760
fan, it's going to be incredibly stressful. As

00:37:51.760 --> 00:37:54.300
a Bills fan, I'm terrified. Yes. As a football

00:37:54.300 --> 00:37:57.239
fan, like it's going to be great. Yeah. Well,

00:37:57.320 --> 00:37:58.980
and especially, you know, Parker Washington,

00:37:59.159 --> 00:38:01.780
I think he's like 5 '10", but Brian Thomas Jr.

00:38:01.920 --> 00:38:05.619
6 '4", Jacobi Meyers 6 '2". The Bills tallest

00:38:05.619 --> 00:38:08.260
corner is Christian Benford who's 6 '1". and

00:38:08.260 --> 00:38:10.239
you know Taron Johnson and Trudevius White at

00:38:10.239 --> 00:38:12.019
this stage of their career don't have the hops

00:38:12.019 --> 00:38:13.840
and Trevor Lawrence that's one of the parts of

00:38:13.840 --> 00:38:16.360
his game that in watching his the playback of

00:38:16.360 --> 00:38:19.039
his games he's been excellent at ball placement

00:38:19.039 --> 00:38:22.219
to give his guys a chance at the jump ball when

00:38:22.219 --> 00:38:24.690
even when coverage is tight and They're they're

00:38:24.690 --> 00:38:26.889
getting them. His high points are ridiculous.

00:38:27.610 --> 00:38:30.210
And I just think back to that Bengals game watching

00:38:30.210 --> 00:38:33.949
like that was to me how stark a reminder of how

00:38:33.949 --> 00:38:36.449
smaller DBs are when they were going against

00:38:36.449 --> 00:38:39.170
the trees that were Jamar Chase and T Higgins,

00:38:39.309 --> 00:38:41.050
right? Like just, yeah, I think we're going to

00:38:41.050 --> 00:38:44.130
see some of that again, too. Yeah, man, there

00:38:44.130 --> 00:38:48.389
there are there are to me fewer opportunities

00:38:48.389 --> 00:38:51.719
for this Bills defense to attack. this Jaguars

00:38:51.719 --> 00:38:55.619
offense compared to our offenses ability to wear

00:38:55.619 --> 00:38:57.559
down some of the some of the holes in this Jags

00:38:57.559 --> 00:39:00.099
defense. I really do think I don't think this

00:39:00.099 --> 00:39:01.960
is going to be necessarily a game where both

00:39:01.960 --> 00:39:05.000
offenses score at will on each other. But I do

00:39:05.000 --> 00:39:06.960
think this game is I do think the overrunner

00:39:06.960 --> 00:39:10.599
in this game is 51 and a half for a reason. So

00:39:10.599 --> 00:39:12.380
that being said, JJ, you want to get a person

00:39:12.380 --> 00:39:14.639
some prediction sure to go wrong. Let's do it.

00:39:14.699 --> 00:39:17.119
All right, man. So as I mentioned before, overrunner

00:39:17.119 --> 00:39:19.219
on this game, according to DraftKings, 51 and

00:39:19.219 --> 00:39:22.079
a half points. And the Bills opened, JJ, interestingly

00:39:22.079 --> 00:39:24.559
enough, as road favorites in this game, but that

00:39:24.559 --> 00:39:26.260
line is completely flipped. The Buffalo Bills

00:39:26.260 --> 00:39:27.920
opened up as one and a half point favorites.

00:39:28.039 --> 00:39:30.039
That betting line has now moved in favor of the

00:39:30.039 --> 00:39:31.699
Jags, who are now one and a half point favorites

00:39:31.699 --> 00:39:35.559
for this game. And according to ESPN's FPI Football

00:39:35.559 --> 00:39:38.059
Power Index, the Jacksonville Jaguars have a

00:39:38.059 --> 00:39:41.679
53 .2 % chance to come out on top of this game.

00:39:42.039 --> 00:39:43.940
JJ, a lot of people are saying the winner of

00:39:43.940 --> 00:39:45.880
this game is going to win the AFC. I don't know

00:39:45.880 --> 00:39:47.539
if it's that, but this is definitely, to me,

00:39:47.559 --> 00:39:49.920
the best game at least on paper in Wild Card

00:39:49.920 --> 00:39:52.860
Weekend. JJ, who do you got? Well, I'm wearing

00:39:52.860 --> 00:39:58.559
my Away Allen jersey, and in Allen I trust, right?

00:39:58.960 --> 00:40:01.519
Given all the things we've said and all of the

00:40:01.519 --> 00:40:03.159
things we've seen with some inconsistency and

00:40:03.159 --> 00:40:05.840
criticisms, he is still Josh Allen. I think,

00:40:05.840 --> 00:40:08.219
as I said before, I think he's still the best

00:40:08.219 --> 00:40:12.300
elite QB talent in the whole playoff field. And

00:40:12.300 --> 00:40:15.369
we know that quarterbacks get it done in the

00:40:15.369 --> 00:40:17.030
playoffs. Right. Like that is the difference

00:40:17.030 --> 00:40:20.849
maker for most playoff runs. It's not, you know,

00:40:20.969 --> 00:40:23.610
who's the who's the guy from the Buccaneers who

00:40:23.610 --> 00:40:26.530
won one was like Brad something or other. Oh,

00:40:26.690 --> 00:40:29.110
oh, God. Brad Johnson. Yeah, Brad Johnson. Brad

00:40:29.110 --> 00:40:31.650
Johnson's of the world don't usually get the

00:40:31.650 --> 00:40:34.230
chip. Right. It's the Brady's. It's the Peyton

00:40:34.230 --> 00:40:37.349
Manning's. It's the drew breezes. And Josh Allen

00:40:37.349 --> 00:40:39.889
is one of those guys. And he's the first quarterback

00:40:39.889 --> 00:40:44.179
in NFL history. period and the other piece and

00:40:44.179 --> 00:40:46.079
i'll say this i'm no i'm long -winded to get

00:40:46.079 --> 00:40:48.960
in my prediction josh allen roll with it uh his

00:40:48.960 --> 00:40:51.579
fourth quarter qb rating is absolutely through

00:40:51.579 --> 00:40:54.340
the roof it's like 143 forever lawrence's fourth

00:40:54.340 --> 00:40:57.579
quarter qb rating is like a 74 so in crunch time

00:40:57.579 --> 00:41:00.400
i think it might be josh allen and i'm taking

00:41:00.400 --> 00:41:02.780
josh allen in this one um and i know quarterbacks

00:41:02.780 --> 00:41:05.000
don't play against quarterbacks it's such a stupid

00:41:05.000 --> 00:41:09.480
media trope but I'm gonna go with I'm gonna I'm

00:41:09.480 --> 00:41:13.500
hitting the over and I'm saying bills 31 Against

00:41:13.500 --> 00:41:17.559
a Jags 28 nice nice It's gonna be a heartbreaker

00:41:17.559 --> 00:41:20.619
like down to the wire for either fan base, but

00:41:20.619 --> 00:41:22.920
I think the bills pull it out Yeah, no, I agree

00:41:22.920 --> 00:41:26.840
Listen man, I'm voting with my heart. My head

00:41:26.840 --> 00:41:30.820
says the Jags have have enough advantages here

00:41:30.820 --> 00:41:34.059
to kind of shit Force a changing of the guard,

00:41:34.199 --> 00:41:36.159
turn the page in the AFC and really kind of take

00:41:36.159 --> 00:41:38.599
control here in the playoffs. But my heart, man,

00:41:38.599 --> 00:41:40.480
like is always going to be with the Buffalo Bills.

00:41:40.599 --> 00:41:42.960
And to your point, I think there's enough Josh

00:41:42.960 --> 00:41:45.920
Allen things that can be done in order for the

00:41:45.920 --> 00:41:49.860
Bills to, to prevail. And I think I really do

00:41:49.860 --> 00:41:52.139
think regardless of what we think about Joe Brady,

00:41:52.400 --> 00:41:54.199
Eminer and Kroemer know how to scheme a run game.

00:41:54.239 --> 00:41:57.280
And I do think this is going to be. Easily the

00:41:57.280 --> 00:41:59.260
biggest test that this Jacksonville Jaguars defense

00:41:59.260 --> 00:42:02.039
has faced when it comes to fitting the run all

00:42:02.039 --> 00:42:03.800
season And I think the Bills are gonna be able

00:42:03.800 --> 00:42:05.480
to do some stuff in the run game. That's gonna

00:42:05.480 --> 00:42:10.219
be very effective I've got Bills 34 Jaguars 31

00:42:10.219 --> 00:42:13.079
in this particular game I'm also taking the over

00:42:13.079 --> 00:42:16.309
but the Buffalo Bills advance and JJ I'm knocking

00:42:16.309 --> 00:42:19.110
on wood, but it feels like I've been saying this

00:42:19.110 --> 00:42:21.030
all season. The Bills are either going to lose

00:42:21.030 --> 00:42:22.809
in the first round or they're going to go to

00:42:22.809 --> 00:42:26.130
the Super Bowl. If the Bills can overcome this

00:42:26.130 --> 00:42:28.110
obstacle, and this is no shade to anybody else

00:42:28.110 --> 00:42:30.949
who's in the AFC, but if the Bills can write

00:42:30.949 --> 00:42:33.389
some of the things, some of the challenges and

00:42:33.389 --> 00:42:34.969
some of the issues that we've seen particularly

00:42:34.969 --> 00:42:37.489
on the offensive side of the ball in this game.

00:42:37.639 --> 00:42:39.480
I mean, there is nothing like playing your best

00:42:39.480 --> 00:42:41.059
football when it comes to this time of year.

00:42:41.139 --> 00:42:43.760
So if the Bills can showcase that against, I

00:42:43.760 --> 00:42:46.139
would argue, one of the toughest, if not the

00:42:46.139 --> 00:42:48.239
toughest AFC challenge they're going to face,

00:42:48.400 --> 00:42:50.320
I feel good about the Bills chances to make it

00:42:50.320 --> 00:42:52.079
to the Super Bowl should they be able to prevail

00:42:52.079 --> 00:42:55.320
in this game. I do too. Yeah, no, I think that

00:42:55.320 --> 00:42:58.679
looking at the whole field, I feel more comfortable

00:42:58.679 --> 00:43:00.940
about the Bills traveling to Denver or traveling

00:43:00.940 --> 00:43:06.599
to New England or, you know, facing Houston.

00:43:06.940 --> 00:43:09.460
at Houston than I do about this particular game.

00:43:09.559 --> 00:43:10.940
If they get through this hurdle, I'm with you.

00:43:11.039 --> 00:43:12.340
I think that they might, they might go the whole

00:43:12.340 --> 00:43:14.000
way. And this is a big hurdle because again,

00:43:14.119 --> 00:43:16.789
this is a confident young. team and, and this

00:43:16.789 --> 00:43:19.510
whole, this whole season, JJ has felt like a,

00:43:19.510 --> 00:43:21.969
a changing of the guard moment in the NFL, but

00:43:21.969 --> 00:43:24.150
particularly in the AFC. But I just got done

00:43:24.150 --> 00:43:26.469
watching the Carolina Panthers and the, the LA

00:43:26.469 --> 00:43:29.289
Rams play a barn burner. And it felt like the

00:43:29.289 --> 00:43:31.630
Panthers were about to force a changing of the

00:43:31.630 --> 00:43:33.829
guard on their own by sending Matt Stafford home,

00:43:34.170 --> 00:43:36.429
but the old guys prevailed, man. And the bills,

00:43:36.889 --> 00:43:38.610
we're the old guys and then we're the old guys

00:43:38.610 --> 00:43:41.409
in this equation. Right. So I'm, I'm going with

00:43:41.409 --> 00:43:44.409
the old guys, man. I just don't think like any

00:43:44.409 --> 00:43:46.670
good boomer. They're just not ready to give up

00:43:46.670 --> 00:43:48.710
their station in life just yet. So yeah going

00:43:48.710 --> 00:43:50.489
with the bills What kind of prop bet do you have?

00:43:50.630 --> 00:43:53.010
So I've got one on defense and one on offense

00:43:53.010 --> 00:43:57.510
on defense Joey Bosa over 1 .5 sacks over under

00:43:57.510 --> 00:44:01.269
I mean push like he like they're gonna need a

00:44:01.269 --> 00:44:03.170
great game out of him And I think he's been saving

00:44:03.170 --> 00:44:05.730
something special for the put for this postseason

00:44:05.730 --> 00:44:09.110
run I like where is he's at with his health two

00:44:09.110 --> 00:44:12.480
sacks would like double his sack. Like it would

00:44:12.480 --> 00:44:14.460
be like half of his sack output from the regular

00:44:14.460 --> 00:44:17.139
season. That's a lot. I wouldn't hate it. Right.

00:44:17.719 --> 00:44:21.599
But but I'm going to push like I think one and

00:44:21.599 --> 00:44:23.639
a half. Like I think he gets one. It feels right.

00:44:24.079 --> 00:44:26.219
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. All right. That's fair. I mean,

00:44:26.320 --> 00:44:28.940
I did. You know, the the media bit of him recently

00:44:28.940 --> 00:44:31.119
saying this is the healthiest he's been going

00:44:31.119 --> 00:44:33.719
into the playoffs as an entire career. that that

00:44:33.719 --> 00:44:36.340
felt like something to me. Yes. And he's he is

00:44:36.340 --> 00:44:38.880
exactly the kind of person that has a different

00:44:38.880 --> 00:44:42.280
gear, sort of like at Oliver does, sort of like

00:44:42.280 --> 00:44:45.159
Josh Allen does. Right. Like who they sort of

00:44:45.159 --> 00:44:47.179
the it's not like they hold anything back during

00:44:47.179 --> 00:44:48.739
the regular season, but in the playoffs, they

00:44:48.739 --> 00:44:52.800
find a different mode of being. Yeah, without

00:44:52.800 --> 00:44:54.480
a doubt. And then what's your what's your offense?

00:44:54.619 --> 00:44:59.119
Yeah, just one offense. One Gabe Davis over under

00:44:59.119 --> 00:45:02.539
over under under touchdown under. All right.

00:45:03.159 --> 00:45:05.059
I don't know what it's going to be. Listen, I

00:45:05.059 --> 00:45:08.780
love Gabe as a human being. as a leader on this

00:45:08.780 --> 00:45:11.900
team, as a run blocker in the scheme. Yeah. But

00:45:11.900 --> 00:45:15.280
I have seen way too much Gabe Davis playoff time

00:45:15.280 --> 00:45:18.280
stuff in our social media feeds. Like, OK, you're

00:45:18.280 --> 00:45:20.260
tired of it. Let's just be honest about what

00:45:20.260 --> 00:45:23.579
this guy is. He's he's a third or fourth with

00:45:23.579 --> 00:45:27.159
special teams upside. And like if we're talking

00:45:27.159 --> 00:45:29.460
about, you know, will Josh really trust Gabe

00:45:29.460 --> 00:45:32.059
Davis? This goes to our earlier conversation

00:45:32.059 --> 00:45:35.039
of it. You got to dance with who got you there.

00:45:35.059 --> 00:45:38.619
And you have to change some of your preferences

00:45:38.619 --> 00:45:42.519
as QB. If you're truly going to balance out and

00:45:42.519 --> 00:45:45.500
maximize, maximize this offense to its fullest

00:45:45.500 --> 00:45:47.619
capability. I'm not saying the ceiling is super

00:45:47.619 --> 00:45:49.860
high on this offense, but I'm saying that we

00:45:49.860 --> 00:45:52.320
have yet to see it maxed out to its capability.

00:45:52.320 --> 00:45:54.820
And I think if you're locking in on Gabe Davis

00:45:54.820 --> 00:45:57.519
early and often in this game, that is a problem.

00:45:57.840 --> 00:46:00.920
Khalil Shakir is your best wide receiver. Dalton

00:46:00.920 --> 00:46:03.860
Kincaid is your overall best pa - catcher and

00:46:03.860 --> 00:46:07.300
Dawson Knox is your best red zone threat. That

00:46:07.300 --> 00:46:09.780
is the order of operations. That is the pecking

00:46:09.780 --> 00:46:12.099
order. Everybody eats goes right out the window.

00:46:12.420 --> 00:46:16.219
And if Gabe Davis is interceding in any of that

00:46:16.219 --> 00:46:19.280
order of operation, I think we have large problems

00:46:19.280 --> 00:46:23.719
in this game. Under. Sorry. Knew where I was

00:46:23.719 --> 00:46:26.900
taking you when I said when I invoked Grape Davis,

00:46:27.000 --> 00:46:29.920
so I just that I wanted to get that out of you

00:46:29.920 --> 00:46:32.199
Can I can I give you the real the real offensive

00:46:32.199 --> 00:46:34.079
prop now? Well, you're terrible. That wasn't

00:46:34.079 --> 00:46:39.199
right. That's so good I was just rage baiting

00:46:39.199 --> 00:46:41.619
you though. Oh my god. Well done. Well deserved

00:46:41.619 --> 00:46:43.840
it for all the rage baiting and right That's

00:46:43.840 --> 00:46:45.739
I think that's fair as a little comeuppance.

00:46:45.739 --> 00:46:48.420
There you go. Don can Kade over under six and

00:46:48.420 --> 00:46:51.030
a half receptions Over it has to be you think

00:46:51.030 --> 00:46:54.429
this is the weakness of this particular D events

00:46:54.429 --> 00:46:56.949
and they have got to take advantage of If Dalton

00:46:56.949 --> 00:46:59.250
Kincaid is even 80 % healthy call me the doom

00:46:59.250 --> 00:47:02.849
and gloom guy, but I'm taking the under Because

00:47:02.849 --> 00:47:04.409
because Gabe Davis is getting those targets.

00:47:04.409 --> 00:47:07.489
Is that what you're gonna say? Maybe no. Um,

00:47:07.750 --> 00:47:11.309
no because I just have this feeling that Dalton

00:47:11.309 --> 00:47:14.610
Kincaid is playing on like a shattered kneecap

00:47:14.610 --> 00:47:18.170
or something. I just feel like every time we

00:47:18.170 --> 00:47:19.769
see him on the field for a game, we're like,

00:47:19.929 --> 00:47:22.150
oh my gosh, Dalton Kincaid, oh my gosh, that

00:47:22.150 --> 00:47:23.909
was a great catch. Oh man, he was wide open.

00:47:24.070 --> 00:47:26.570
Oh man. And then after two or three receptions,

00:47:26.769 --> 00:47:29.920
something pops in his lower body. and he disappears

00:47:29.920 --> 00:47:32.059
right off the field and he's gone for five weeks.

00:47:32.400 --> 00:47:34.639
So with that being said, like I know they've

00:47:34.639 --> 00:47:36.219
been trying to save him up. They've been like

00:47:36.219 --> 00:47:37.880
taking it real slow with him, trying to give

00:47:37.880 --> 00:47:39.559
him just a few snaps here and there in the last

00:47:39.559 --> 00:47:41.840
few games to try to make sure he's healthy for

00:47:41.840 --> 00:47:45.059
this moment. But I don't know that it's enough.

00:47:45.199 --> 00:47:47.639
I think he's pretty injury prone. I think some

00:47:47.639 --> 00:47:50.639
something is going on there. And so I think it's

00:47:50.639 --> 00:47:52.559
going to be under. Sadly, I'm the doom and gloom

00:47:52.559 --> 00:47:56.579
guy. But I agree completely that in a perfect

00:47:56.579 --> 00:47:59.659
world where he's not all dinged up, He absolutely

00:47:59.659 --> 00:48:01.460
should get 10 receptions every game because he's

00:48:01.460 --> 00:48:03.840
the best weapon they have Without a doubt and

00:48:03.840 --> 00:48:06.000
he is the arguably the only matchup problem They

00:48:06.000 --> 00:48:08.159
have to he's the only guy who you have to account

00:48:08.159 --> 00:48:11.039
for other than James Cook every time he's on

00:48:11.039 --> 00:48:13.880
the field What are your props? I just have one

00:48:13.880 --> 00:48:15.960
and it's offensive and it's related to your Dalton

00:48:15.960 --> 00:48:19.000
Kincaid one Rather than going with specific pass

00:48:19.000 --> 00:48:22.159
catcher. I had over under 11 and a half total

00:48:22.159 --> 00:48:25.880
receptions for the tight end room But a nice

00:48:25.880 --> 00:48:29.139
little bundle of Jackson Hawes Dalton Kincaid

00:48:29.139 --> 00:48:32.139
and Dawson Knox. Over under 11 and a half? 11

00:48:32.139 --> 00:48:35.199
and a half. So Dawson Knox has averaged just

00:48:35.199 --> 00:48:37.599
under five receptions per game in the last five

00:48:37.599 --> 00:48:40.420
weeks here this season. Yep. No, that's a good

00:48:40.420 --> 00:48:43.480
one. I'm going to go over because even though

00:48:43.480 --> 00:48:45.679
I have some worries about Dalton Kincaid and

00:48:45.679 --> 00:48:49.619
his ability to stay on the field. I do think

00:48:49.619 --> 00:48:52.099
that this offense is going to try to press what

00:48:52.099 --> 00:48:55.099
is what is the one of the only significant and

00:48:55.099 --> 00:48:57.239
consistent weaknesses of this Jaguars defense.

00:48:57.500 --> 00:49:00.280
And that is tight ends in the middle of the field

00:49:00.280 --> 00:49:02.679
and to the outside. So I like it. I'm taking

00:49:02.679 --> 00:49:04.599
it over. Nice. Yeah, I'm taking I'm taking the

00:49:04.599 --> 00:49:07.400
over on this as well. And I'm not going to say

00:49:07.400 --> 00:49:09.400
this is going to be like a big Jackson Hawes

00:49:09.400 --> 00:49:12.889
game. But this Jacksonville Jaguars. defense

00:49:12.889 --> 00:49:16.949
is top 10 in EPA per play against play action

00:49:16.949 --> 00:49:19.889
and the Buffalo Bills since week 10, they're

00:49:19.889 --> 00:49:22.809
a top 11 just outside the top 10 squad and using

00:49:22.809 --> 00:49:25.090
play action. I think this is another like the

00:49:25.090 --> 00:49:26.969
run game strength on strength thing that Brady

00:49:26.969 --> 00:49:29.269
is going to want to test. And because they put

00:49:29.269 --> 00:49:32.150
Hawes into motion so much, he just feels like

00:49:32.150 --> 00:49:35.469
an ideal leak at tight end lead candidate for

00:49:35.469 --> 00:49:37.510
one of these play action shots. So yeah, I'm

00:49:37.510 --> 00:49:39.630
going to say, I'm going to say we see and some

00:49:39.630 --> 00:49:41.989
unexpected Jackson Hawes positivity. in this

00:49:41.989 --> 00:49:46.010
game. I like it too. And JJ, I'm going to like

00:49:46.010 --> 00:49:48.489
it if the Bills win. I do. I like him. Yeah,

00:49:48.510 --> 00:49:50.670
I think he's great. Just love him. One of the

00:49:50.670 --> 00:49:52.269
best draft picks we've had in a very long time.

00:49:53.389 --> 00:49:55.369
But yeah, man, I'm also going to like it if the

00:49:55.369 --> 00:49:58.349
Bills win. Again, my head is coming up with all

00:49:58.349 --> 00:50:00.969
the reasons why they're not, but my heart is

00:50:00.969 --> 00:50:04.730
like, listen, man, if not now, when? When's it

00:50:04.730 --> 00:50:06.869
going to be? And I understand that Josh isn't

00:50:06.869 --> 00:50:09.150
playing his best ball. This is Far from the best

00:50:09.150 --> 00:50:11.309
roster that we have seen the Buffalo Bills roll

00:50:11.309 --> 00:50:14.489
out in any postseason But I'm Bill's mafia man,

00:50:14.650 --> 00:50:16.349
and I'm real I'm rolling with the squad no matter

00:50:16.349 --> 00:50:18.789
what well And and I think that you know to your

00:50:18.789 --> 00:50:21.010
point of this is not the best roster We've seen

00:50:21.010 --> 00:50:23.690
plenty of pretty middling rosters end up winning

00:50:23.690 --> 00:50:25.739
a championship. You know That's happened so many

00:50:25.739 --> 00:50:28.960
times where people go, the Giants in 2011, like

00:50:28.960 --> 00:50:31.780
teams come in and if they just hit the right

00:50:31.780 --> 00:50:33.900
heat at the right time and the guys are playing

00:50:33.900 --> 00:50:35.820
together and they're unified and the coaches

00:50:35.820 --> 00:50:37.880
are doing their job, it can happen. I mean, listen,

00:50:37.900 --> 00:50:39.980
we've seen the Kansas City Chiefs do it for the

00:50:39.980 --> 00:50:43.500
past couple of seasons. There's no shade at KC,

00:50:43.780 --> 00:50:46.139
but they're back to back after getting a retiree

00:50:46.139 --> 00:50:48.539
kill. They were not rolling out elite anything

00:50:48.539 --> 00:50:51.199
other than an elite Travis Kelsey and an elite

00:50:51.199 --> 00:50:54.530
Patrick Mahomes and an elite Chris Jones. just

00:50:54.530 --> 00:50:56.650
takes three or four guys from the postseason

00:50:56.650 --> 00:50:58.829
to make that difference on the margins. Hopefully,

00:50:59.070 --> 00:51:00.349
the Buffalo Bills can find their three or four

00:51:00.349 --> 00:51:02.349
guys here against the Jaguars, man. Absolutely.

00:51:02.730 --> 00:51:04.469
Yeah. All right. For all of you listening at

00:51:04.469 --> 00:51:07.190
home, we hope you enjoy Buffalo Bills postseason

00:51:07.190 --> 00:51:09.429
football. Never take it for granted, kids, because

00:51:09.429 --> 00:51:11.889
you never know when a 17 -year drought is upon

00:51:11.889 --> 00:51:13.869
us. Like, share, and subscribe wherever you get

00:51:13.869 --> 00:51:17.010
your podcasts, Apple, YouTube, Spotify. And as

00:51:17.010 --> 00:51:18.570
always, go Bills. Go Bills.