Welcome back to the Buffalo Bread Podcast. JJ
and Dan here. And as you may see at home, I'm
wearing a jersey, which can only mean one thing.
Dan, it's playoff time. Week one wild card weekend.
The Bills are set to play tomorrow. We're recording
on Saturday 1 p .m. 1 p .m. kicks are good for
the Bills. They're good for the Bills on the
road even, even though their Bills are terrible
on the road, especially in the playoffs. But
we'll talk about that. And it's going to be against
Jacksonville in Jacksonville country down there
in Duval. And I think the the game looks to be
best on best. The league's best rushing defense
versus the league's best rushing offense in the
Bills. And then on top of that, the Bills number
one pass defense against a top 10 unit on the
Jaguar side of the field in offense. WPA overall,
but also in passing. Dan. Where is your head
at? How are you feeling about this? Playoff football
is always exciting. I mean, this is usually the
time of year where my social media feed gets
flooded with the end of the drought. The videos
in the Bills locker room is the Bengals eliminate
the Ravens, and it gives the Bills a chance to
head into the postseason in 2017. Like all of
that stuff, JJ, is just a nice reminder that
this time of year, despite whatever the expectations
are or whatever the narratives are, as a Bills
fan, we should always just try to enjoy these
moments because we've lived the majority of our
adult fan hoods without having opportunities
like this to enjoy extended postseason play for
the Buffalo Bills. So I'm optimistic, I'm hopeful,
but most of all I'm grateful for just getting
to see the Bills play a little bit of extra football
and hoping they can pull out a tough one against,
as you stated, a really stout AFC rival in the
Jacksonville Jaguars and a team, JJ, that the
Bills have a really weird history against. Yeah,
it's funny because it's not like the history,
the recent history of the... as a Chiefs or even
the matchups they've had with the Baltimore Ravens,
to go through the Jags history, you go back to
the drought break year where the Bills lost in
Jacksonville, where Tyrod Taylor could not get
the Bills a touchdown. Even though the center
on Buffalo podcast by Eric Wood, he shared that
on the goal line of that game, Tyrod should have
called a QB run and instead stuck to a fade ball
to the outside. And on that fade ball, there
was an offensive pass interference set them back
yard. They ended up getting a field goal and
said that that would have been the point. They
made the difference that continued the playoffs,
though. Eric would admitted that that team was
not going to the Super Bowl that year. But really,
to look at this Jacksonville Jaguars, Buffalo
Bills. you know, foe rivalry over the years,
you have to go back to the 90s, to the Super
Bowl era Bills. Just after the Jacksonville Jaguars
were founded as a team, they played there a few
times at the very end of that era before the
drought began. And so it's an interesting matchup
and it's never been good for the Bills. Do you
want to give a little bit of a history lesson?
Yeah, just focusing on the Sean McDermott era,
the Jags, JJ, actually own a winning record against
the Bills. They are three and two, including
the postseason. against these Sean McDermott
-led Buffalo Bills. You know, and I think even
though the Jacksonville Jaguars have had a, is
it three different coaches in that time frame?
It's been, who has it been? It's been, no, it's
been four, because it was Doug Marrone. And then
it was Urban Meyer. And then it was, now it's
Liam Cohen. Who was the last? Was it Doug Pete?
No. Yeah, it was, it was Peterson, the former
Philadelphia Eagles coach, right? So over that
timeframe, it seems like regardless of the coach,
they have had a moderate success here against
Sean McDermott and these Buffalo Bills. And JJ,
Liam Cohen, being a new head coach, we've seen
head coaches like this role against this Buffalo
Bill squad before Jacksonville is talking with
their chests out. They're speaking as if they
expect to and have already won this game in a
lot of ways. confident team despite the fact
that this is their head coach's first rodeo in
the lead role in the postseason. You know, it's
going to be interesting to see if the moxie and
the energy that the Jags are bringing here to
this particular game, JJ, is going to outweigh
some of the experience and the stability that
the Bills are bringing through via their coaching
staff and some of the veteran presence on this
team as well. JJ, I have so many questions. I
have so many questions because like... narratives
aside for this game, these are two, I think of
the prime contenders in a wide open AFC to go
to the Super Bowl. If you told me in four weeks
that we're looking at the Jags versus any NFC
team in the Super Bowl, I wouldn't be surprised.
This is a imperfect but effective defense. This
is an offense that has caught fire, thanks to
the leadership and the sort of coming out moment
of Trevor Lawrence, their veteran star QB. A
lot of fans down in Jacksonville have been waiting
for this. There's just so much about this Jaguars
team, JJ, that is exciting to the general football
fan, but also schematically presents a lot of
problems for the way this particular Buffalo
Bills team is built. Like, I'm just looking forward
to getting into it. I'm hoping no matter what,
we're going to have our questions answered at
the end of the day tomorrow. But there's There's
still a lot of fun stuff for us to unpack, I
think, now. Yeah, absolutely. Where do you want
to start with these major questions? Dude, I
want to talk, can we talk about this Jacksonville
Jaguars defense? Because you noted it. They are
number one in the league right now in yards allowed
per game. against the rush. I think they're sitting
somewhere like 68 yards per game allowed. Now,
when you look at some of their underlying metrics,
when you look at success rate, still pretty good.
When you look at EPA per rush, also very, very
good as you alluded to. But a lot of this JJ
has been, particularly in the last 10 weeks when
you really drilled down in on this rush defense,
a lot of it's been game script. They've been
putting the pressure with their offense. on on
opposing teams to the point where the run game
really can't factor in for a lot of squads moving
into latter parts of the game because they are
playing catch up. You know, JJ, this is the game
script that the Buffalo Bills lived and breathed
on last year. I've been struggling to find again
and the Jags are really proficient at running
it. I will say. that I see some opportunities
here for this Buffalo Bills rushing attack led
by a second team, all pro James Cook, um, and
a really stout offensive line. I think to, I
think to really impose their will against this
Jacksonville Jaguars defensive line. I am thinking
Jay, Jen, I'd love your take on this. The Bills
are actually going to have some success. running
outside the tackles on this team. And I feel
like we've said this before, the Bills want to
make your defensive backs tackle in the run game.
And I think this is where the Jacksonville Jaguars
can be had a little bit in their run defenses,
making that secondary crash down and play really
hard stout rush defense. Yeah, I think that that's
that's the real answer to in the Bills matchup
with the Patriots earlier in the season. The
answer that the Patriots had for the Bills rushing
attack that seemed to work so well and also seemed
to add some fuel to the fire for other Bill's
losses throughout the year. And then they looked
to pivot and fix it later on was just having
a really dedicated safety presence in the box
and having cornerbacks maybe not necessarily
take the farthest outside gap in a run fill because
that's where James Cook was gashing teams all
through the first part of the year. And so the
Patriots kind of started that blueprint and other
teams started copying it. And it's interesting
because, you know, the The Jaguars do not have
great outside tackling corners in Newsom and
Brown. They are terrible in run defense, all
things told. They have excellent linebackers.
They have a solid defensive line and they have
decent safeties in run fill. But really, their
outside corners are not all stars at getting
up and getting physical and large. So, you know,
Wingard and Murray coming down as safeties are
going to be more helpful. So it's going to be
interesting to me to see what And part of the
reason that the Jaguars defense is excellent
against the run, but bad against zone running
is exactly that. Zone running relies on a person
to cover an area. And if that person is weak
against a run, that's where it falls apart. They're
great against gap running because kind of their
defensive line and linebackers can man up anybody.
But when it comes to requiring areas of the field
to be denied based on a single player's run stopping
possibilities. That's where they're going to
struggle. So all that said, I think that knowing
the Buffalo Bills, knowing offensive line coach
and and Joe Brady and his run design, I feel
good about the Bills opportunity to get this.
I think that, you know, anybody out there who's
playing, you know, playing gambling, betting
and parlays going for an over 75 yards for James
Cook is probably a pretty good bet because the.
The Jags have not given up more than 75 yards,
so the odds are pretty good for you if you make
that bet, but James Cook is also an absolute
force. Yeah, it really is. And JJ, that's kind
of the story of this Jacksonville Jaguars defense.
In the aggregate, their overall rankings when
you look at underlying metrics, when you look
at yards per game, when you look at overall rankings,
it's a really, really solid defense. It is a
defense that I think thrives on turnovers. probably
a little bit more than they would like to, but
still has some shutdown capabilities in some
areas. But then you find that one nugget, to
your point, some of the outside zone stuff. And
then in their pass defense game, when you look
at areas of the field where they're solid in,
there's always a little bit of an underlying
weakness that you can exploit. And against this
Jacksonville Jaguars defense, JJ, it's tight
end defense. This team is very middle of the
pack, 16th in the league. When it comes to DVOA
in tight ends as pass catchers against this squad,
despite the fact that they've got some really,
really solid linebackers, but this is more of
a pass rush linebacker group, JJ. So if Dalton
Kincaid is healthy and ready to go, and if Dawson
Knox can continue some of his late second half
of the season pass catching theatrics, I think
we could see linebackers or safeties reassigned
to Shadow, one or both of those guys, and Bill's
heavy set offensive schemes, and then that could
open up things a little bit more for James. like
to exploit the second level on the, in the middle
part of the field as well. There are opportunities,
despite the fact that in the aggregate, this
Jacksonville Jaguars defense is very good. There
are opportunities that speak to this Buffalo
Bills offensive strengths that I think are going
to allow them to exploit it. JJ, I want to talk
about Josh Allen next year. Um, because I think
the run game, I think you and I probably both
agree. The Bills are going to come out and they're
going to establish a run first mentality. They're
going to want to. take time off the clock, they're
going, they're going to want to make sure that
Trevor Lawrence stays on the sideline for as
long as possible. They're going to want to suffocate
this Jacksonville Jaguars team and give them
as few opportunities as possible to get that
high octane offense on the field. But again,
this Jaguars defense is good. And their coaches
get paid too. And they have a really excellent
DC and Anthony Campanelli, I think is his name,
right? Who is going to come ready with a great
game plan to try to stop some of the stuff the
bills are rolling out. It's modern era football.
At some point, Josh Allen is going to be asked
to do something. And JJ, I think a lot of the
media narrative has been, well, he is the statistically
the best. postseason QB we have seen in the modern
era that has not yet has yet to win a Super Bowl.
And I think people are taking for granted that
Josh is going to be able to put on that superhero
cape should all things fail, all else fail. But
JJ, you and I both watched closely here at the
end of the season, even though we didn't have
a chance to really recap it due to various illnesses
and family stuff that we were dealing with. This
is as shaky as a run to close the season as I
can remember Josh having. And he was very candid
in that press conference here leading up to this
game this week where he talked about the self
-scouting process he went through during week
18 and in the lead up to this wild card game.
JJ, this is going to seem like a silly question.
It's simplistic at first, but I want to dig into
it. What is your confidence level that should
Josh Allen be called upon to be Superman? We
are going to see. 13 seconds, Josh, as opposed
to maybe what we saw against the Philadelphia
Eagles a couple of weeks ago. I don't have very
high confidence because I think we've talked
about on the podcast throughout the season. He
doesn't he he has not seemed like he's seeing
the field like he has in previous seasons and
not just to close out the season like you mentioned.
It's it's been in other than the Kansas City
game Cincinnati game. Yeah, Cincinnati game.
And no, I would even consider. Other than the
Kansas City game, I don't think I've seen a complete
Josh Allen game, right? Like he's played incredible
halves or quarters of football. I haven't seen
a game where he had complete control of himself,
the offense, the team as it moved on the field,
other than the KC game. And so. And because it's
been a half, right? Like, he had an amazing half
against the Bengals. He had an amazing half against
the Patriots. He had an amazing seven minutes
against the Ravens, right? Like, it's been fits
and starts and spurts. But I feel like he's been
one of 17 where he's put together a complete
game and seemed to be in control. Some of that
I absolutely know is the options in the wide
receiver room. Some of that I know is absolutely
Joe Brady's limitations as a play caller. But...
Some of it is also Josh Allen. I think that it
feels like it's blasphemous to be talking about
Josh Allen in that way, but I think it's worthwhile
to criticize what has been a up -and -down inconsistent
year from him. I mean, he's taken the most acts
of his career. He's back up pretty high with
turnovers again. I think that some of the flaws
that you see in Josh Allen trying to do too much...
making some mistakes are showing up in this hash
have shown up in the season and may show up again
in the playoffs. Because I do know that he he
may feel that pressure, you know, trickling up
of I've got to get this thing done. I've got
to get a championship. Yeah. And that's always
what you worry about is Sugar High Josh, the
Josh that we thought was gone after his MVP season
last year where he played almost impossibly efficient
football this year. To say he has reverted, I
think is a little bit of a trope at this point,
but we have seen far more of his pre -MVP tendencies
than we have his MVP season tendencies this year
for sure. And JJ, you know, I think there's been
some imperfections. You mentioned the scheme,
you mentioned the personnel. You know, when I
really dug into some of the numbers for this
game, you know, I was curious, Josh's time to
throw versus time to pressure and things like
that. The offensive line is still giving him
what he needs, a solid clean pocket, um, above
league average time before pressure reaches him
with the exception of a few really bad games.
Like we saw against, um, Philadelphia recently,
like we saw against like some really elite defensive
lines like Houston, but. On the balance, this
offensive line has done its job. Josh has had
a clean pocket on 88 % of his dropbacks this
year. That is number one in the league by far,
according to FTN. And time to pressure is well
above that 2 .5 seconds that is considered league
average for quick pressure. I mean, the problem
is Josh is hanging onto the ball. And we've seen
him, you know, Joe Brady made such a weird comment.
Um, I think it was heading into the jets game.
He, someone in the media had asked him, you know,
what do you see about Josh's, um, pre snap reads
that concerns you? And they were talking about
the pressure. He's seen the number of free rushers
that are coming off the line of scrimmage all
the time. And you and I have talked about it
too. And Brady's comment was that he thought
Alan was operating an elite level pre snap at
this point in the season. I mean, I. I was eating
when I heard that comment. I almost choked on
what I was eating because I mean, it's it you
just watch the film you even watch the broadcast
and you know it's not true. You don't see the
percentage of free rushers coming off the line
that the bills do. If you have a QB who is a
leader calling out protections pre snap, you
don't see a QB who struggles to hit his first
read like Josh does. when his pre -snap reads
are supposedly elite. I mean, listen, on the
other side of the ball here with Trevor Lawrence,
I would argue in this Liam Cohen offense, he
is actually operating in an elite level pre -snap.
Cohen has put a ton on Lawrence's plate. to read
protections and figure out where his best route
success is ultimately going to be. And Lawrence
has delivered by and large on a lot of that stuff.
Lawrence currently is third in the league in
overall number of past attempts off of his first
read. That tells me. He is operating properly
pre -snap. What he is seeing pre -snap is developing
in front of his eyes post -snap and he is trusting
his wide receivers in his first read. JJ, Josh
on the other side of that, 22nd in the league
in first read attempts. Now, Josh has never been,
been a huge first read QB. I think the highest
he's ever ranked in the league is like 15th,
right? Cause he's always big play hunting. Exactly.
He's always looking for something downfield.
He's always big play hunting. But this Brady
scheme, like something has to give in this game.
You either need to, as Josh succumb to the way
Brady wants the scheme, which is three step drop,
five step drop, get the ball out quickly. Like
Mitch Trubisky did against the Jets. Granted
it was against the Jets, right? Trust your first
read, particularly if it's Dalton Kincaid or
Dawson Knox or Khalil Shakir and let your playmakers
do something with the ball. The reason why I
kind of share your lack of confidence is because
I have yet to see. in a 17 game sample, Josh
be able to trust that. And at some point, like
I get he might not trust the weapons around him.
But you got to dance with who got you there.
Like, not like, you know, john brown, Cole Beasley,
Stefan Diggs ain't walking through that door
anytime soon. You got to make it work with some
combination of Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid,
should he be healthy. Dawson Knox and then some
amalgamation on the outside of Brandon Cook's
Keon Coleman or Gabe Davis like you just need
to commit to that and Kind of go out on your
shield with it because the way Josh has been
Managing things pre and post snap up until this
point to your point has prevented this Bill's
offense from really playing a complete game No,
hang on. Hold on. Are you absolutely certain
that John Brown or Cole Beasley? or Manuel Sanders
aren't coming through that door. I mean, I'm
sure the bills. I'm sure the bills have reached
out. Yeah. They call you in shape or you just
do a rap rap career right now. I know. Right.
We don't require the covid vaccine anymore. You
can come out of retirement. Right. But it's but
it's crazy to think about this because. It's
making it seem like we feel like Josh has been
the biggest impediment to the success of this
team. And that's not true, right? That is not
true at all. The games that the Bills have won
by and large. The majority of them has, have
been because Josh has been able to do quote unquote
Josh Allen things. And the reason why the bills
are even in this spot to be in the postseason
for the umpteenth consecutive time is because
we have Josh Allen. And he's a reason why we've
got the Superbowl odds that we do. So this is
not to say that Josh is an impediment to the
success of this team, but if this is going to
be more of a successful whole team win. as opposed
to in a balanced attack. Right. I think that's
what I'm getting at. If this is really going
to be a balanced Buffalo Bills attack, like we
saw last season, Josh is going to have to make
some concessions in his tendencies that he has
put on film, I think, in order to take advantage
of the specific weaknesses of this Jacksonville
Jaguars defense. I think we'll be able to tell
pretty quick into the game what his self study
or self scouting did, if anything, like if it
if it. Made him kind of think a little bit harder
about that first first hit read We'll be able
to tell pretty quick because I mean I was just
as you were talking about, you know, Trubisky
the way Trubisky played against the Jets And
you're talking about kind of how the Josh we've
seen in years past I just thought of dables offense
and I think a lot of it. It's two things It's
not having trust in the wide receiver room and
it's also Maybe not having trust in the play
play design, because Josh Allen, when he was
under Dave's in his like huge blow up year in
2020 and 2021, he was like, he was on, right?
Like he set his protections, he hit his back
foot, wasn't always his first read, but it was
not usually his third, right? And now I feel
like you see him searching and seeking and spinning
out of pressure and trying to find something
to do with the football way more often because
I don't think the weapons that he needs to like
trust and be confident are there. So he's taking
sacks, right? He's taking sacks. He's throwing,
you know, uncharacteristic picks and stuff like
that. It's interesting. There is, you know, can
we talk about the continue to talk about the
Jags defense a little bit with this? So, yeah,
I think we we've said, you know. Summary, Cliff's
notes of the Josh Allen segment. We we love Josh.
The Bills would not be anywhere close to the
playoffs if it weren't for him as their quarterback.
He is probably the best, most talented quarterback.
Him, you know, effort maybe. End of list. Right.
Like Drake Mays hasn't has a great year, but
they had you. I like Drake May more than you
do. I could tell. I think he's I think he's super
talented. I think he's great. Yeah, I don't hate
him. I don't dislike him. I think he's great.
For me, it's the same thing I said to Brandon
when we had him on the pod. You just need to
be consistent. You just see it more often than
one year, right? But yeah, he's had an excellent
year. So other than those three quarterbacks,
I can't think of a QB in the playoffs that's
super intimidating, right? And so we love Josh
Allen. He has not been consistent this year.
He hasn't shown us what the Bills need him to
show in order to be efficient, productive, and
consistent on offense. And that's going to really
that's going to be a big piece of what this comes
down to is if at any point in time the Bills
rushing attack is not working, Josh Allen's got
to make an efficient passing attack that can
move the ball down the field. And it might look
like a dink and dunk, but you know, first downs
over touchdowns like. Tom Brady always used to
say, right? Always. And take the free yards.
And I think that's the thing, the piece of, again,
regression is such a strong word because he's
still played at an MVP caliber level this season.
But I think the biggest difference in his game
and his skittishness in the pocket this year
has been that he's been unwilling to take the
free yards the teams were giving him last year.
Now at some times when I look at it on the film
and I see James Cook flash out of the backfield
or I see Shakir come open in the flat, I also
see a DB or a linebacker about three, four yards
behind them. And I know immediately there's no
yak opportunity there. And I know that that's
what Josh is thinking too, but at some point,
like take those four yards on first down, take
those four yards on second down, because it's
a lot better to be third and plus four or second
and plus four from where you were there, as opposed
to throwing a 30 yard in completion downfield
to a double covered wide receiver. Right. Um,
man, JJ, I just, I. Like this Jaguars defense,
as we continue to dig into it, they, they honestly,
they have had some. I don't want to say inconsistent
moments, but they've been a lot higher variance,
I think, than the aggregate numbers would lead
you to believe. Like over this eight game winning
streak that they've had, they have allowed four
QBs in that time to go for over 270 passing yards,
despite the fact that when it comes to DVOA,
they're a top 11, they're a top 10 type of pass
defense. JJ, those QBs have been Geno Smith,
CJ Stroud, Jacoby Berset, and Bo Nix, right?
Do we not think Josh Allen? If push comes to
shove in this rush, defense is shut down. Can't
put together a 270 plus yard game against this
Jags defense. Like, really? Is that where we're
at? Yeah, no, we're not there. And and but this
is the thing. This is where the like weird voodoo
mama juju stuff of the Jaguars comes in. This
team has some weird hacks like on the bills when
they come into that stadium. Like it's the Urban
Meyer Jaguars beat the Bills. The Bills lost
to the Jaguars in Tottenham Stadium in London.
and lost multiple defensive starters for the
whole season that game. Like, I don't know what
it is, but every time there's like a dark cloud
that follows these bills when they play against
the Jaguars. It's like somebody, you know, took
it's like OJ Simpson threw the bloody knife underneath
the Jaguar Stadium as it was being built. Right.
Like something happened to tie these two franchises
together. He's dead. He's dead. It's fine. It's
fine. We all know we did it. Yes, so Yes, Simpson
estate, please don't sue this podcast. We're
sponsored by no one and have no money. We have
nothing we have absolutely nothing So that all
said in jest, of course Is that there's something
weird that ties these, you know, I'm not usually
a vibes guy But in this situation, I absolutely
am like really worried about the game because
of the matchup because of the team And it's not
like the KC matchup worries that we always have.
The Bills have had utter defeats and heart -breaking
losses at Kansas City, but we always know that
they're going to show up, right? Since 2021,
the Bills have not been blown out by Kansas City.
It's not been a thing. We see that one of their
best shots, often the defense lets them down,
but we know it's going to be a game. I'm afraid.
I'm afraid that this Jaguars game, like even
though they're defensive, they've padded their
defensive stats against inferior quarterbacks.
I totally agree with that. Even though they have
a kind of a weird turnover differential that's
insanely high and characteristically high and
their offensive production is largely dependent
on it as any team would be with that level of
turnovers, interceptions, fumbles, etc. And to
that to that note, there's a YouTuber. who I'm
going to give a shout out to Michael McKelvey.
Have you ever watched his stuff? Yeah, yeah,
yeah. Yeah. He does like the super in -depth
analysis on things like the rubber band effect,
why teams feel look like they're playing better
when they're losing by a bunch and why the good
team that came out to a huge lead looks terrible
and like the statistics and raw data behind that.
It's awesome. He did a does defense wins championships.
I watched the whole thing and it brilliantly.
He boiled it down to the statistics and data
would show you defense does win championships,
but specifically fumble luck. which is an impossible
thing to you can be good at punch outs, but the
ball bouncing into your players arms is that
completely random. That's a roll of the dice.
And but he really found that the teams that had
fumbles in their favor that they recovered more
than other teams almost always went to the Super
Bowl in the seasons of the playoffs compared
to the field. So that's something that the Jaguars
currently have. But that doesn't always mean
they're going to have it in the playoffs. JJ,
do you know what team led the league last season
in fumble luck? Was it the bills? It was the
bills. Yeah. It was the bills. They led the league
last year in fumble luck. Yes. Percentage of
fumbles recovered versus percentage of balls
lost. Yes, it was. It was the Buffalo Bills.
And I haven't seen that specific thing, but I've
heard a lot about fumble luck. It's also not
a pure regression stat. It is a pure luck stat.
So if you have good fumble luck one year, doesn't
necessarily mean you're not going to have good
fumble luck the following year. It is completely
random from year to year, right? That's crazy.
I love it be the first one one season and 28
the next and then seventh or third, you know
Yeah, it's all over the map. Exactly. Exactly.
And again, that's not that's no disrespect to
the Jags, right? But as a defense over the past
I would say three seasons in Buffalo that we
have seen really feast or famine when it comes
to turnover luck We know that if you can take
care of the ball against this Jags this Jags
defense, it gives you better than a puncher's
chance to really come out ahead as an offense.
Um, JJ, speaking of defense, you want to switch
gears here and talk about the Buffalo Bills.
Is it improving defense? So I, I, as I was doing
research for this pod, I listened to some of
our usuals, right? Piscalia, um, Marino, both
Marino's, um, the shout guys. And there's a lot
of like honing in on the past five weeks or so
to say, and a lot of folks saying that this Buffalo
Bills defense is really kind of coming into its
own, particularly with its improvement in the
run D. I don't know that that's necessarily the
case on the latter point, but I will say Taron
Johnson has gotten healthier as the season has
gone on and his coverage has improved and the
Bills are going to need it against the Jags.
Christian Benford has been playing at an elite
level when he has been on the field here towards
the end of the season. feel good about him. And
Trey White, we know we're not going to have Max
Harrison for this, but Trey White, since the
bye, has really played, I would argue, some of
his best football since his first stint with
the Buffalo Bills. Terrell Bernard going to be
out for this game, but the linebacker core seems
to solidify with Shaq Thompson getting healthier,
Matt Malano getting healthier. And then JJ, the
defensive line, we got a healthy Joey Bosa knock
on wood coming into this game, and a healthy
Greg Rousseau. The Bills' defensive numbers and
they are what they are. And when you drill down
on the last 10 weeks, you know, you look at some
of their advanced metrics, they still stink at
defending the run. They're still 32nd in the
league in overall DVOA and EPA per play and success
rate, 32 across the board. But there have been
some bright spots here. JJ, this is, as we have
said, a high octane Jacksonville Jaguars offense
and a QB that is operating. I consider an elite
level in this offense in Trevor Lawrence. Is
the Bills defense bringing enough guns to this
gunfight to stifle or even stymie this Jacksonville
Jaguars attack? So I watched a number of the
Jaguars games and they did a lot of stat padding
against teams like the Titans. They played some
pretty poor competition in a number of the games
during their nine win or eight win streak. I
know that that's still real, right? The Bills
have, you know, trounced lesser teams and that's
added to their, you know, overall statistics
and still been a highly competitive team. Or
they play down and lose. Yeah, not this year.
Not this year. Years prior, years prior. And
last year, in fact, one of the teams that they
absolutely decimated was the Jaguars, right?
Like three. Yeah. And so there's a little bit
of that. So I'm like, is this, you know, is the
offense fool's gold? It's not. They have answers
for a lot of things. I think Liam Cohen is an
excellent play caller. And that excellent play
caller paired with a very skilled quarterback
is the kryptonite for any Sean McDermott defense,
especially one when he's leading a team that
has 16 players on injury on their injury report
this week. Like that's the part I don't that
that's the part that I don't know that there's
a solution for. And it seems like the cruelest
of all of the looks is that the Bills can't seem
to play a playoff game. with their preferred
starting defense. Hasn't happened. Or even, not
even that, because most teams don't at this time
of the year, right? Like defenses, the injury
percentage is 100 % for players in the league
over their career. It's that the Bills haven't
brought more than eight of their starting 11
to the field in any playoff game that I can remember.
They just elevated Bale and Specter. I don't
think Shaq Thompson is going to go like that.
That is terrible. That is bad news. They lose
Max Hairston on a freak high ankle sprain in
like the. bladder half of the Jets game, right?
Like this, they, you know, of course we know
Ed Oliver's out, Michael Hoyk's out. They're
not going to get those players back. Daquan Jones
is like limping on a busted calf. Tarell Bernard.
Tarell Bernard is out. Yeah. So this, this rosy
picture I painted of, Hey man, are things coming
together at the right time for the defense? You're
like, no, no, that's not happening. No, they're,
they're not. I will say this though. players
like Cole Bishop, Jordan Poirier, Trey White
turning it on, Christian Benford turning it on,
you're going to see exceptional individual efforts
from those guys and that will matter. I don't
think that their past defense is fool's gold
for the Bills. I think the past defense is legitimate.
It's number one in the league. They have consistency
throughout the year. They cannot stop the run.
It's not just because teams can just run all
over on them because they've also, you know,
they also won 12 games. So it's not possibly
that they give up. rushing yards to the to the
fact that they pad the the teams are not passing
on them, which is kind of a thing that the Jaguars
people are talking about. The Jaguars run defense,
right? That nobody's pat. Nobody's running on
them because their offense has been very, very
hot and gotten out to game script. Exactly. As
you said prior in the pod. So I. I do think that
the Bills pass defense is real. I don't think
that the Bills rushing defense being shored up
is real. I think that that's just, that's contextual
because of who they faced, how they faced them,
game script, and then some individual matchups,
some players that, you know, and then inexplicably
teams that just abandoned the run, like the Dolphins,
you know, or the Patriots, you know, in the second
half. inexplicably or just like, yeah, we're
gonna just not do that. So yeah, without a doubt.
Do you think the do you think the Jags are gonna
it Trevor Lawrence is playing at such a high
level and it seems almost it seems almost criminal
to take the ball out of his hands. But do you
think the Jags particularly early on in this
game are going to test the spills run defense?
I think it would be malpractice. Yeah, absolutely.
Yeah. But, but this is a team too that I could
see that JJ, this is a team that I could see
choosing to get off the run real quick, depending
on how Lawrence comes out for this game. If Lawrence
comes out hot, I could see them really leaning
on him and the rush, the rush game, not being
a factor for the Jags, right? Sure. I mean, it's
a, it's a, it's a rushing attack that I think
has been high variance and inconsistent. They're
sitting at 20th overall, I think an EPA per,
per rush, which is not. great. They don't exactly
have a mauling offensive line in the run game
either, but the Bills have been kind of a panacea
for a lot of teams that struggle with that kind
of thing. But I could really see Cohen being
the, flashy is not the right term, but he is
a high leverage play caller. And I could see
him leaning into his young up and coming, coming
into his own QB in this game early on if Lawrence
is kind of feeling it. I could see that too.
And I think that, you know, expect as bills as
bills mafia expect Liam Cohen and Trevor Lawrence
especially if they end up getting the kickoff
to start the game trying to come out and just
like Dagger the bills through the heart straight
out of the gate right like they are going to
try to take the wind out of their sails as a
Visiting team in this game and their house and
they have all of these things on the line They've
been crushing it for so many weeks in a row.
I expect them to want to like deliver on a shot
play or something very early to establish dominance
in the game and try to take the spirit of the
Bills out of it as a guest in their home. And
so I could see them not running the ball for
maybe the first quarter more than a few times
if the pass is working, if they're just marching
up and down the field with the short passing
game and run after the catch, which actually
it's interesting enough. Trevor Lawrence is like,
what, 38th or something of quarterbacks run after
the catch. That doesn't happen for him. It's
about the design getting a player open in space,
but coverage players are close enough that they're
not really breaking them. Exactly. You know,
JJ, let me put it more succinctly. I don't think
based on what I've heard and all the pregame
interviews, I don't think the Jacksonville Jaguars
think they need to run the ball to beat the Buffalo
Bills. Right. I think that's the level of confidence
they are operating with right now. Well, and
especially when they have, you know, they have
Jacobi Myers, they have Brian BTJ, Brian Thomas
Jr. They've got Parker Washington, who blew up
out of nowhere and looks amazing this season.
And then who's their tenant, Brenton Strange,
Brenton Strange. Yeah. Love that kid. That kid's
great. Oh, he's awesome. He can do, and he is
a player who can do it all. He's, you know, 6
'4", 250 and can block, can catch, has equal
run block and receiving grades essentially. So
yeah, I mean, they don't really have to do too
much in terms of establishing the run with the
matchups they're going to see against anyone
against Trey White. And then anybody who's in
a slaughter out of the backfield matched up against
Milano or Thompson because they are older. Their
coverage grades this season, their coverage ability
has not been exceptional. And it's also interesting
that, you know, what I think Milano has one interception,
maybe Shaq Thompson might have one as well, but
neither of them has has been excellent in coverage
and Shaq Thompson might not even be there. It
might be Matt Milano and Bailen Specter, which
they can pick on him. all day with tight ends
and running backs. Yeah, if Bale Inspector has
to play any meaningful snaps, this is going to
be Kyler, Kyra Elam 2 .0 in the postseason. I
mean, they're just going to relentlessly target
him. I think they're going to look to get Myers
matched up as much as humanly possible on Taron
Johnson too. I mean, Myers has just been a merchant
in the middle of the field for them, which is
freed up Brian Thomas Jr. to your point earlier,
just to own the boundary for this particular
team. And then Parker Washington. as they're
kind of do it all possession guy with some explosive
capability all over the field. I mean, it's,
it's going to be dicey. I've got confidence that
the bills, even without Max Harrison can figure
out a way to deal with it, but this is going
to be like a chess match McDermott and Babbage
versus Liam Cohen and figuring out who to place
where and what matchups to try to get for yourself.
I mean it. is a pure football fan. I think it's
going to be a lot of fun to watch. As a Bills
fan, it's going to be incredibly stressful. As
a Bills fan, I'm terrified. Yes. As a football
fan, like it's going to be great. Yeah. Well,
and especially, you know, Parker Washington,
I think he's like 5 '10", but Brian Thomas Jr.
6 '4", Jacobi Meyers 6 '2". The Bills tallest
corner is Christian Benford who's 6 '1". and
you know Taron Johnson and Trudevius White at
this stage of their career don't have the hops
and Trevor Lawrence that's one of the parts of
his game that in watching his the playback of
his games he's been excellent at ball placement
to give his guys a chance at the jump ball when
even when coverage is tight and They're they're
getting them. His high points are ridiculous.
And I just think back to that Bengals game watching
like that was to me how stark a reminder of how
smaller DBs are when they were going against
the trees that were Jamar Chase and T Higgins,
right? Like just, yeah, I think we're going to
see some of that again, too. Yeah, man, there
there are there are to me fewer opportunities
for this Bills defense to attack. this Jaguars
offense compared to our offenses ability to wear
down some of the some of the holes in this Jags
defense. I really do think I don't think this
is going to be necessarily a game where both
offenses score at will on each other. But I do
think this game is I do think the overrunner
in this game is 51 and a half for a reason. So
that being said, JJ, you want to get a person
some prediction sure to go wrong. Let's do it.
All right, man. So as I mentioned before, overrunner
on this game, according to DraftKings, 51 and
a half points. And the Bills opened, JJ, interestingly
enough, as road favorites in this game, but that
line is completely flipped. The Buffalo Bills
opened up as one and a half point favorites.
That betting line has now moved in favor of the
Jags, who are now one and a half point favorites
for this game. And according to ESPN's FPI Football
Power Index, the Jacksonville Jaguars have a
53 .2 % chance to come out on top of this game.
JJ, a lot of people are saying the winner of
this game is going to win the AFC. I don't know
if it's that, but this is definitely, to me,
the best game at least on paper in Wild Card
Weekend. JJ, who do you got? Well, I'm wearing
my Away Allen jersey, and in Allen I trust, right?
Given all the things we've said and all of the
things we've seen with some inconsistency and
criticisms, he is still Josh Allen. I think,
as I said before, I think he's still the best
elite QB talent in the whole playoff field. And
we know that quarterbacks get it done in the
playoffs. Right. Like that is the difference
maker for most playoff runs. It's not, you know,
who's the who's the guy from the Buccaneers who
won one was like Brad something or other. Oh,
oh, God. Brad Johnson. Yeah, Brad Johnson. Brad
Johnson's of the world don't usually get the
chip. Right. It's the Brady's. It's the Peyton
Manning's. It's the drew breezes. And Josh Allen
is one of those guys. And he's the first quarterback
in NFL history. period and the other piece and
i'll say this i'm no i'm long -winded to get
in my prediction josh allen roll with it uh his
fourth quarter qb rating is absolutely through
the roof it's like 143 forever lawrence's fourth
quarter qb rating is like a 74 so in crunch time
i think it might be josh allen and i'm taking
josh allen in this one um and i know quarterbacks
don't play against quarterbacks it's such a stupid
media trope but I'm gonna go with I'm gonna I'm
hitting the over and I'm saying bills 31 Against
a Jags 28 nice nice It's gonna be a heartbreaker
like down to the wire for either fan base, but
I think the bills pull it out Yeah, no, I agree
Listen man, I'm voting with my heart. My head
says the Jags have have enough advantages here
to kind of shit Force a changing of the guard,
turn the page in the AFC and really kind of take
control here in the playoffs. But my heart, man,
like is always going to be with the Buffalo Bills.
And to your point, I think there's enough Josh
Allen things that can be done in order for the
Bills to, to prevail. And I think I really do
think regardless of what we think about Joe Brady,
Eminer and Kroemer know how to scheme a run game.
And I do think this is going to be. Easily the
biggest test that this Jacksonville Jaguars defense
has faced when it comes to fitting the run all
season And I think the Bills are gonna be able
to do some stuff in the run game. That's gonna
be very effective I've got Bills 34 Jaguars 31
in this particular game I'm also taking the over
but the Buffalo Bills advance and JJ I'm knocking
on wood, but it feels like I've been saying this
all season. The Bills are either going to lose
in the first round or they're going to go to
the Super Bowl. If the Bills can overcome this
obstacle, and this is no shade to anybody else
who's in the AFC, but if the Bills can write
some of the things, some of the challenges and
some of the issues that we've seen particularly
on the offensive side of the ball in this game.
I mean, there is nothing like playing your best
football when it comes to this time of year.
So if the Bills can showcase that against, I
would argue, one of the toughest, if not the
toughest AFC challenge they're going to face,
I feel good about the Bills chances to make it
to the Super Bowl should they be able to prevail
in this game. I do too. Yeah, no, I think that
looking at the whole field, I feel more comfortable
about the Bills traveling to Denver or traveling
to New England or, you know, facing Houston.
at Houston than I do about this particular game.
If they get through this hurdle, I'm with you.
I think that they might, they might go the whole
way. And this is a big hurdle because again,
this is a confident young. team and, and this
whole, this whole season, JJ has felt like a,
a changing of the guard moment in the NFL, but
particularly in the AFC. But I just got done
watching the Carolina Panthers and the, the LA
Rams play a barn burner. And it felt like the
Panthers were about to force a changing of the
guard on their own by sending Matt Stafford home,
but the old guys prevailed, man. And the bills,
we're the old guys and then we're the old guys
in this equation. Right. So I'm, I'm going with
the old guys, man. I just don't think like any
good boomer. They're just not ready to give up
their station in life just yet. So yeah going
with the bills What kind of prop bet do you have?
So I've got one on defense and one on offense
on defense Joey Bosa over 1 .5 sacks over under
I mean push like he like they're gonna need a
great game out of him And I think he's been saving
something special for the put for this postseason
run I like where is he's at with his health two
sacks would like double his sack. Like it would
be like half of his sack output from the regular
season. That's a lot. I wouldn't hate it. Right.
But but I'm going to push like I think one and
a half. Like I think he gets one. It feels right.
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. All right. That's fair. I mean,
I did. You know, the the media bit of him recently
saying this is the healthiest he's been going
into the playoffs as an entire career. that that
felt like something to me. Yes. And he's he is
exactly the kind of person that has a different
gear, sort of like at Oliver does, sort of like
Josh Allen does. Right. Like who they sort of
the it's not like they hold anything back during
the regular season, but in the playoffs, they
find a different mode of being. Yeah, without
a doubt. And then what's your what's your offense?
Yeah, just one offense. One Gabe Davis over under
over under under touchdown under. All right.
I don't know what it's going to be. Listen, I
love Gabe as a human being. as a leader on this
team, as a run blocker in the scheme. Yeah. But
I have seen way too much Gabe Davis playoff time
stuff in our social media feeds. Like, OK, you're
tired of it. Let's just be honest about what
this guy is. He's he's a third or fourth with
special teams upside. And like if we're talking
about, you know, will Josh really trust Gabe
Davis? This goes to our earlier conversation
of it. You got to dance with who got you there.
And you have to change some of your preferences
as QB. If you're truly going to balance out and
maximize, maximize this offense to its fullest
capability. I'm not saying the ceiling is super
high on this offense, but I'm saying that we
have yet to see it maxed out to its capability.
And I think if you're locking in on Gabe Davis
early and often in this game, that is a problem.
Khalil Shakir is your best wide receiver. Dalton
Kincaid is your overall best pa - catcher and
Dawson Knox is your best red zone threat. That
is the order of operations. That is the pecking
order. Everybody eats goes right out the window.
And if Gabe Davis is interceding in any of that
order of operation, I think we have large problems
in this game. Under. Sorry. Knew where I was
taking you when I said when I invoked Grape Davis,
so I just that I wanted to get that out of you
Can I can I give you the real the real offensive
prop now? Well, you're terrible. That wasn't
right. That's so good I was just rage baiting
you though. Oh my god. Well done. Well deserved
it for all the rage baiting and right That's
I think that's fair as a little comeuppance.
There you go. Don can Kade over under six and
a half receptions Over it has to be you think
this is the weakness of this particular D events
and they have got to take advantage of If Dalton
Kincaid is even 80 % healthy call me the doom
and gloom guy, but I'm taking the under Because
because Gabe Davis is getting those targets.
Is that what you're gonna say? Maybe no. Um,
no because I just have this feeling that Dalton
Kincaid is playing on like a shattered kneecap
or something. I just feel like every time we
see him on the field for a game, we're like,
oh my gosh, Dalton Kincaid, oh my gosh, that
was a great catch. Oh man, he was wide open.
Oh man. And then after two or three receptions,
something pops in his lower body. and he disappears
right off the field and he's gone for five weeks.
So with that being said, like I know they've
been trying to save him up. They've been like
taking it real slow with him, trying to give
him just a few snaps here and there in the last
few games to try to make sure he's healthy for
this moment. But I don't know that it's enough.
I think he's pretty injury prone. I think some
something is going on there. And so I think it's
going to be under. Sadly, I'm the doom and gloom
guy. But I agree completely that in a perfect
world where he's not all dinged up, He absolutely
should get 10 receptions every game because he's
the best weapon they have Without a doubt and
he is the arguably the only matchup problem They
have to he's the only guy who you have to account
for other than James Cook every time he's on
the field What are your props? I just have one
and it's offensive and it's related to your Dalton
Kincaid one Rather than going with specific pass
catcher. I had over under 11 and a half total
receptions for the tight end room But a nice
little bundle of Jackson Hawes Dalton Kincaid
and Dawson Knox. Over under 11 and a half? 11
and a half. So Dawson Knox has averaged just
under five receptions per game in the last five
weeks here this season. Yep. No, that's a good
one. I'm going to go over because even though
I have some worries about Dalton Kincaid and
his ability to stay on the field. I do think
that this offense is going to try to press what
is what is the one of the only significant and
consistent weaknesses of this Jaguars defense.
And that is tight ends in the middle of the field
and to the outside. So I like it. I'm taking
it over. Nice. Yeah, I'm taking I'm taking the
over on this as well. And I'm not going to say
this is going to be like a big Jackson Hawes
game. But this Jacksonville Jaguars. defense
is top 10 in EPA per play against play action
and the Buffalo Bills since week 10, they're
a top 11 just outside the top 10 squad and using
play action. I think this is another like the
run game strength on strength thing that Brady
is going to want to test. And because they put
Hawes into motion so much, he just feels like
an ideal leak at tight end lead candidate for
one of these play action shots. So yeah, I'm
going to say, I'm going to say we see and some
unexpected Jackson Hawes positivity. in this
game. I like it too. And JJ, I'm going to like
it if the Bills win. I do. I like him. Yeah,
I think he's great. Just love him. One of the
best draft picks we've had in a very long time.
But yeah, man, I'm also going to like it if the
Bills win. Again, my head is coming up with all
the reasons why they're not, but my heart is
like, listen, man, if not now, when? When's it
going to be? And I understand that Josh isn't
playing his best ball. This is Far from the best
roster that we have seen the Buffalo Bills roll
out in any postseason But I'm Bill's mafia man,
and I'm real I'm rolling with the squad no matter
what well And and I think that you know to your
point of this is not the best roster We've seen
plenty of pretty middling rosters end up winning
a championship. You know That's happened so many
times where people go, the Giants in 2011, like
teams come in and if they just hit the right
heat at the right time and the guys are playing
together and they're unified and the coaches
are doing their job, it can happen. I mean, listen,
we've seen the Kansas City Chiefs do it for the
past couple of seasons. There's no shade at KC,
but they're back to back after getting a retiree
kill. They were not rolling out elite anything
other than an elite Travis Kelsey and an elite
Patrick Mahomes and an elite Chris Jones. just
takes three or four guys from the postseason
to make that difference on the margins. Hopefully,
the Buffalo Bills can find their three or four
guys here against the Jaguars, man. Absolutely.
Yeah. All right. For all of you listening at
home, we hope you enjoy Buffalo Bills postseason
football. Never take it for granted, kids, because
you never know when a 17 -year drought is upon
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