Welcome back to the Buffalo Bread Podcast. Dan
and JJ here to recap Week 15 against the New
England Patriots up there in Baston. And holy
crap, Dan. It was a tale of two halves, as were
so many of the Bills games this year. We haven't
heard from Brandon. I haven't heard from Brandon.
I heard from Brandon. How's Brandon doing? Yeah,
he's he's okay. We had actually a very irrational
discourse over text after that game So yeah,
that's what I like about Brandon chill dude,
like watches the game for what it is like never
gets overly emotional Yeah, definitely a good
hang even though he doesn't root for the proper
team Recognizes that the pets still probably
have the division. It's just gonna take them
a little bit longer. Exactly Yeah, so but I mean
it was definitely I'm I will fully admit it.
I was I was doom mafia I was Doom Mafia the first
half. I was I was in the the, you know, game
thread on Reddit being like, fuck everybody.
Oh, my God. We're the worst team that's ever
lived. They're wasting Josh Allen's talent. Keon
Coleman's a scrub. You know, like I was a dude.
I was off. I was off the hinges. I what did I
say? Oh, one of my top comments that actually
got up, dude, did a couple of times, which is
rare because it's always just a stream of consciousness
for everybody. Was that quicker? So was a massive
overpay and a complete failure of a pick. You're
probably still not wrong. No, I had a sack in
this game, but you're probably still not wrong.
Yeah, but it was like I was just watching him
just do literally nothing every step and being
like, well, he's not injured. There's nothing
to explain why he sucks. So it was. I was with
you, Bill's Mafia. I was with you through it
all. It was a roller coaster. Over, under, JJ.
7 .4 million regrettable tweets sent out by Bill's
Mafia in the first half of that game. Over by
10 million. Over. So far over. But I mean, listen,
the frustration was justified. And this is the
thing, dude. And I've gone through all my notes
from that game, all my observations. I've rewatched
a couple of key sets. I don't know what it is,
particularly about the defensive side of the
ball, because the offensive play calling to me
and the schematics didn't change from half one
to half two. It was just better execution by
the bills. I don't know what it is about the
first half of games with this bill's defense
that they wait to do the things that we all know
are going to be successful for them for a team
that doesn't have a lot of elite personnel for
a team that really has. genuine schematic disadvantages
against other teams. There are levers that they
can pull, albeit limited that they just wait
to pull until the second half. I thought for
sure they were going to light up Drake may with,
with some sort of blitzing pressure, right? Make
a young QB in a high leverage moment. Try to
identify where the blitz is coming from. Where
is the pressure coming from? Because the McDaniel's
offense. is very tailored to a QB who can get
to the line of scrimmage, identify coverage patterns,
and then understand where his route availability
is going to be. It's not what Josh is being asked
to do, or even what Trevor Lawrence is now being
asked to do in the Liam Coleman offense in Jacksonville,
where you're calling out different, different
markers and different potential blitzers and
adjusting all this, all the, all of your protections
at the line of scrimmage. Like Drake Maywell,
as good as he is, is not doing a lot of the pre
-stats. snap stuffs because McDaniels isn't asking
him to. So it seemed ripe with opportunity JJ
all throughout that game for the Bills to take
advantage of that. And they did, but only after
they spotted the Patriots a 21 point lead. I
just don't get, I don't get it. I don't get why
it takes them so long to get this defense going
in games. Well, it's interesting because, you
know, I think that the conversation I was having
during the second half was like, I guess you'd
rather have a second half team than a first half
team, right? Like everyone would rather have
the team. What's wrong with a four quarter team?
What's wrong with that? There's nothing wrong
with a four quarter team. Dan, the problem is
with this Bill's team, if this Bill's team plays
like Josh Allen in the fourth quarter for four
quarters, they'll win every game 114 to zero.
And like, that was fine. I would love that. But
that's okay, JJ. That's fine. So yeah, no, it's
it's wacky because, you know, I saw exactly what
you did. They were heating them up with blitzes.
They were, you know, disguising things. They
were rotating safeties and they were doing all
in the second half. In the first half, they were
sort of vanilla. It was very even. It was like
preseason vanilla. Yes. And they were out of
and while being vanilla, they were also out of
position. So I feel like they potentially came
into the game being like, we're going to play
our fundamentals strong. And then after they're
like, well, that didn't work. Let's. dump the
freaking junk drawer on the table and filter
through what's there, right? And so that's kind
of where the junk drawer approach is what I think
the second half defense is to be explained. Well,
and they didn't, they didn't even get a huge
pressure rate on Drake May. Like he's been sitting
at about 30 % this season because we know that
New England offensive line has had its issues.
They only got about a 17 .4 % pressure rate on
Drake May in this game, according to next gen
stats, but it felt like they made the pressure
count. They were either making him hold onto
the ball too long or he was taking sacks. They
sacked him three times in this game. So they
were, the pressure was I will say this, it was
Jerry Hughes effective. You had a lot of guys
on that defensive line with effort in the pressure
game against Drake May that will not show up
in the stat box. And I think for the first time
all season to me, that was effective enough for
the Bills to get to an opposing QB in the way
that they did. I just, I don't understand why
it has to take them so long. JJ, do you think
McDermott was calling plays in the second half?
Because I absolutely do. I saw him roll out in
the second half with the place play call sheet.
And I think it's as simple as McDermott and high
leverage moments are starting to call place for
the defense. Taking play calling over. Well,
and I think that we did. It was the same thing
in the second half against the Houston Texans.
I feel like maybe he lets Bobby Babich call the
game to start the game, but then just yanks it
back any time like this. Well, and like that's
the thing, too, is like, I feel like. In the
event that this this kind of trend keeps going
I think it's almost guaranteed that Bobby Babich
will be leaving this team in the offseason, right?
Like I think Sean McDermott respects him too
much. They have he respects his dad too much
They have too much of a rapport over the years
for him to unceremoniously like can him midseason
But I think he may just take play calling away
from him repeatedly when they need to and then
eventually just like, you know, the mutual part
ways type thing. And it's interesting because
from what we know of Bobby Babich as a position
coach, I wonder if he'll ever be a solid play
caller in the NFL. And I wonder how much of it
is his ability to play call and how much of it
is the scheme that is not his. to design, right?
Like it's, we all know it's Sean McDermott's
defense. Like that is the thing. And so I wonder
how much of it is, is Bobby Babich a terrible
play caller or is Sean McDermott's scheme such
that Bobby Babich isn't good at calling it? But
Sean McDermott is, I think it's probably a little
bit of mix of both. And I think Babbage is a
really smart coach. Like we were very excited
because he was out there interviewing for DC
positions. He interviewed with Miami before Anthony
Weaver got that job. He was out there coveted
by other teams because I think people realize
that he is a young ascendant defensive mind.
I think. Where he is at with play calling is
just he doesn't have enough reps under his belt
And when you have the personnel that the Buffalo
Bills do which is to your point Personnel that
is built for what Sean McDermott wants to do
with this defense and not necessarily where your
mind thinks It should be applied. I can definitely
see that kind of holding him back and it being
a struggle I don't want to I want to see him
lose play calling because I just don't think
the chops are there. But also when you asked
me, should, do I think he should be jettisoned
from the team? He brings a ton of value as a
positional coach, like that linebacker room.
He maximized every bit of talent out of that
room for years with the squad. I don't just because
he can't do this one thing at a high level doesn't
mean there isn't more value that he still brings
to the team. I'm I'm legitimately conflicted
about Babbage because I don't think he should
call any more plays, but I also don't want to
lose him either, if that makes sense. And is
it the kind of thing where it's like one of those
like. weird offseason shuffles that coaching
staffs do where like, oh, Bobby Babich is the,
you know, assistant head coach and defensive
coordinator doesn't play calls anymore. They
elevate the defensive line coach that they brought
in who was formerly a DC and make him like the
game day defensive coordinator. You know, like
they do some of those weird kind of jumble things
where people don't get pay cuts. They don't lose
titles, but they kind of had their responsibilities
are moved around to a point where it's. Sean
McDermott calling the plays and he's got a couple
of assistants helping him with, you know, the
head coaching stuff on game day. Yep, for sure.
Someone who I don't think is going to have any
of their responsibilities reshuffled is one Josh
Allen. Another Winter Soldier, masterful type
of game. And when you juxtapose it with how inept
the first half was, up until that first touchdown
score passed to James Cook at the end of the
first half, he had a net negative passing yardage
of minus two yards. all the way back finishes
with, I think three total touchdowns in this
particular game would have been four, which would
have given him 300 for his career. Sadly, we're
going to have to wait one more, one more game
for him to get that. But JJ, just another great
game from Josh Allen and the way he's seeing
the field, the way no moment, no deficit feels
too big for him. Are you buying into after this
game? The Buffalo Bills now officially without
my homes, now officially without Joe Burrow in
the postseason and looking very likely that there's
no Lamar Jackson. Are you buying into this is
the year for the Buffalo Bills to make their
run? I've been buying into that since we saw
the Chiefs and Ravens floundering in the middle
of the season. I've been the resistance through
the playoffs. Is is minor like I always thought
the Patriots were a real team and I still do
I think they're a real team They're a well coached
team. They play pretty good consistent ball And
I think I think that they could give the bills
fits I just Drake may is not at that level yet
when it comes to the QB versus Q whose whose
guy is better in critical of clutch moments Drake
Nate Drake may is not that guy yet, and he very
well could be I think that Drake may was a little
bit let down by McDaniel's play calling and the
fact that they only ran the ball three times
in the second half was a travesty for the Patriots
fans because They were crushing the Bills with
the run one of those three runs was a 65 yard
TD like holding or not right like that was a
that would they just ripped that thing and so
Cole Bishop was having a pretty terrible game
it with his run fits and Max Harrison was a struggle
max yeah Max Harrison was struggling Shaq Thompson
I think missed five tackles which is rare for
him it was a really really rough game for him
he was out of position pass coverage too I think
I posted this on socials a couple of times in
our accounts for Darian Lowe erased Shaq Thompson
multiple times at the second level in this game.
And to me, JJ, I feel like that that's the continued
vulnerability for this team. Like, we know how
this team is going to lose, right? They don't
fit the run well. They're relying on. Uh, Phoenix
like rebirth of Shaq Thompson after an injury
riddled campaign with Carolina the past couple
of years, but like a lot of this stuff feels
like a grain of sand type of situation where
if one thing goes wrong, IE, you can't rely on
Shaq Thompson to fit the run or a team like Houston.
or a team like what New England did here in the
first half of this game, makes your DBs try to
fit the run. And we know that, yes, Benford's
reliable at that. That's never been Trey White's
game. And Max Harrison is still figuring that
stuff out. It feels like, it feels like there
are real disadvantages that still persist with
this Buffalo Bills team that make me hesitate,
even though we have, there's no, not even debatable.
We'll have the most experienced. postseason QB
aside from Aaron Rodgers on our side in this
draw in the playoffs. Also, maybe Philip Rivers,
but we can talk about. Oh, God. Oh, God. So,
yeah, I think to your point before and kind of
to finish my thought, I, I, I have been since
probably week eight, nine, 10, maybe I have been.
thinking if the Bills can secure their spot in
the playoffs, they are going to have the best
quarterback, the best playoff quarterback of
the entire field, with the exception of maybe
somebody on the NFC side, Matt Stafford, right?
Stafford, yeah. They will have the most, you
know, battle tested and most skilled quarterback
of the whole field. And so, you know, it's the
kind of thing where if somebody knocks the Rams
out at some point on the NFC side. It could be
a Josh Allen. Josh Allen could be the only quarterback
left who knows how to get it done in crunch time
like that. So, I mean, it's interesting. I do,
you know, there are matchups for the Bills, you
know, Houston at Houston that I'm not excited
about. But I feel very good about the fact that
As soon as the game wrapped for the Bills, it
switched to the Chiefs just in time for me to
watch Patrick Mahomes blow his ACL, which I don't
wish for injuries ever. But to see a despondent
Chiefs team in general, not injury related, but
rather out of the playoffs related, that was
just delicious. That just made my a peach of
a Sunday. Right. To have Chris Jones at the post
game podium say, well, we got we were still fighting
and they're like, you're out of the playoffs.
He's like, oh, we got a playoffs. Well, you know
like that was amazing like they did it's clear
that the the coaching Safdini even prepped them
for that that potential outcome You know what?
I mean, they're just not a situation. They're
used to being in for sure They don't know how
to live in that space, right? This will be the
first AFC championship game in five years that
Patrick Wilhelms has not been in exactly exactly
So JJ the Buffalo Bills here live and die with
with playing two quarters at a time. They are
like the Vin Diesel, Fast and Furious version
of a football team where they live in the shortest
possible intervals to make their highest leverage
plays. Joey Bosa has some great splash plays,
also some great pressures in this game too. Lots
of takeaways from this game that I think we can
extrapolate, not just the Bills next matchup
against Cleveland, but also as we've been doing,
kind of future into the playoffs. One thing I
want to note here, because it costs me winning
that prop that I made with you and Brandon, the
over under I put on wide receiver catches for
this Buffalo bill squad was five and a half for
this game. And you guys were like too low, too
low. There's no way it was six, but I will argue
it should have been five because as pretty as
that pass was to Khalil Shakir that was ruled
a catch and then also ruled PI. I am not a hundred
percent sure. Coel Shakir had possession of that
ball. The PI was a real thing, but I don't think
he did. But I just want to point out that technically
I think it was really just five and I was correct.
But so that begs the question because we're walking
into a Cleveland Browns game and we'll get into
a full full blown preview in a second. Walking
into a Browns game where they've been susceptible
by DVOA to number two wide receivers. but they
defend tight ends really, really well. And they
defend your primary wide receiver option really
well too. This is a game where, and they're a
good run defense. This is a game where it feels
like you would want a couple of wide receivers
to step up and do something if you're going to
be the best version of your offense against this
wildly successful defense. JJ, what was your
impression of the Buffalo Bills wide outs in
this particular game? We know they block, right?
But the only wide receivers that were targeted
in this game were Shakir and Josh Palmer. Brandon
Cooks also had three targets in this game, most
notably the bobble catch that was overturned.
But then Shavers and Kian Coleman, no official
targets because the one target we saw to Coleman
was ruled defensive pass interference. Is there
a formula for success that you have seen based
on this game where the Buffalo Bills can really
live with only three viable wide receiver options?
Yes, and I can't believe I'm saying it, but it
is a lineup of Josh Palmer, Gabe Davis and Khalil
Shakir. Like it is that those are the three,
you know, three wide receiver set. Those are
the three people on the field for me where I'm
like, we have a chance of making something happen
to an outside receiver or that is crazy to say.
I didn't think anything of Gabe Davis being a
healthy scratch for this game because it felt,
it feels like they, they want him on the playoff
roster. This felt more like an audition for Ken
Coleman. And it felt like Coleman really, really
failed. Failed it. Yeah. Lazy routes again. Yeah
lazy routes decent. I guess run blocking but
nothing spectacular That's what I don't get.
He does he does like try to block his butt off
He's not Tyrell shavers right shavers is like
mall and he's very good at it. Yeah. Yes He is
like he is like a lanky offensive lineman with
the way he blocks this technique is really sound
like but Coleman's pretty game But it just feels
like they are gonna do this with the smallest
rotation possible after bringing in the everybody
eats mantra last year. Yeah. Yeah. And I think
that that's the for me, that's the picture going
forward. I don't like I don't like Keon Coleman
steps over Gabe Davis, which just sounds terrible.
But I've just seen more from Gabe Davis as a
route runner, as a reliable chemistry option
for Josh Allen. And we know Gabe Davis is not
only a willing blocker, because that's the thing.
Keon Coleman looks like a willing blocker. He
looks like he puts energy into it. He's just
really, really poor at it most of the time. He
had I love bringing up the Seattle Seahawks game
because that was the one flash where we're like,
oh my gosh, this guy could be what they were
hoping for. But that other than that game and
maybe a couple of their snaps in a few other
games, he doesn't look like he knows how to position
his body, how to drop his hips, how to like actually
push a push a person or square off or square
out a block as a wide receiver. Like blocking
in space is it's more about basketball than football,
which shocks me that he's not good at it. Because
he's a basketball player, right? Yeah. I think
the Bills putting some of these deep shots on
film for Brandon Cooks is very intentional, too.
Come postseason, they want teams to be afraid
of this. They're eventually going to need to
connect on some of that. It'll be interesting
to see what happens when McColl Hardman comes
back because his practice window is about to
open up. It could very well be that a rotation
that started With Curtis Samuel, with Elijah
Moore and Keanu Coleman ends up being, uh, Khalil
Shakir, Gabe Davis, no Keanu Coleman, McCole
Hardman, and Brandon Cooks is like this four,
this set of four type of wide receivers complimenting
what has become a really solid receiving tight
end duo. in Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid as
well. JJ, that'll bring me to the last thing
I want to ask you about this game. Buffalo Bill's
play action rate in this game was 30%. Previous
game against the Cincinnati Bengals, it was almost
40%. And it was almost exclusively early down
boot action to tight ends. Is this the final
form of this passing offense to you? Where they're
going to establish the run, they're going to
be a 52 % run team versus a 48 % pass team, and
this is a team that is going to spam play action
to their tight ends in the middle of the field
to take advantage of linebacker matchups. Is
this the final form of the Bills offense to you
that they'll carry into the postseason? I hope
not. I hope they have one or two more wrinkles
left because what we're seeing, the success we're
seeing, the five straight drives with touchdowns
that we're seeing against the Pats, the incredible
second half success we saw against the Cincinnati
Bengals on offense. A lot of it was showing tendencies
and breaking them. It was play action on first
down where they used to run every first down.
It was, you know, show the like on a couple of
the. on a critical third down conversion to Ty
Johnson, they showed the whip screen to Khalil
Shakir and then turned the other way and threw
it to Ty Johnson. Like some of those tendency
breaking plays are the ones that are showing
up now. I hope they have one more pivot because
if this is the final form, defenses. coach is
too good in this league. They're going to figure
that out. They're going to show those keys and
they're going to be able, they're going to be
able to cover both plays. Like it's not impossible
for a defense to say, look here first, then they're
like, here's your keys. Right. And so, um, I
do hope that they have kind of some different,
even if it's just Mitch mix up the formations,
have some, have those types of plays. Cause you
know, you're good at them run out of some different
looks. Um, but I will say that, you know, what
we've seen in You know, December, late November,
December football from the Bills, with the exception
of the Houston game, has been exceptional in
terms of maintaining drives and letting Josh
Allen do some things. I think also we know this
is the case. It's happened every year for the
past three years. When November, December and
January hits, Josh Allen's allowed to do whatever
he wants. And that's where the Bills are always
the most dangerous. Absolutely. It's not it's
not, you know, keep yourself healthy. Just don't
take what the defense will give you with your
legs. Just. eat the ball, throw it out of bounds,
do it, you know, like live for another down.
Now it's like crunch time, go for it, do whatever
you need to. Yep, absolutely. JJ, you talking
about the postseason is a perfect transition
for us. Before we get into the Cleveland game.
I have not started doing a ton of homework yet
on the AFC side of the playoff card, other than
the teams that the Bills have already played
the Texans, the Patriots, the Steelers. real
quick before we move on to Cleveland, because
it looks like the Bills are going to make the
postseason. They're now in that time in the calendar
where if this team loses or this team ties, the
Bills are in type of situations. So assuming
the Bills make the postseason, give me one team
that you have your eye on as one that is worrying
you the most currently for the way this Buffalo
Bills team is still constructed. I'll give you
a one and a 1A. I'd say the one is Houston, because
all reasons, right? They have an absolute kryptonite
of a pass rush. Josh Allen shaking most sacks
is only useful if he can shake those sacks, and
he can't. They're too good, right? And then two
is, the one B would be Denver. They also have
a very solid defense. They've got a plucky team
They tend to be able to kind of turn it turn
it up when they need to and so And plus they'd
have the extra added motivation of the early
exit the bills delivered to them in Buffalo last
year in the playoffs Right and they too have
a quarterback who also only likes to play for
about two Maybe one and a half quarters every
game as well, but say saves his magic for the
the latter parts of the game Houston's really
scared of me JJ not because of that not just
because the defense which is formidable and we
know that the bills want to make your DB's tackle
and those DB's in Houston are more than happy
to tackle open space Dude, they figured out some
stuff on offense. They've realized that they
have a very traditional pocket presence, pocket
passing QB, kind of a throwback in CJ Stroud.
And those types of QBs love to exploit the middle
of the field. They have two cyclops like wide
receivers and Nico Collins who has six four and
Jayden Higgins who has six four. And all they're
doing is running in breakers to the middle of
the field because there is not a team in the
league that has the skill other than. potentially
the Denver Broncos to stop those two behemoths
from absolutely owning in between the hash marks.
And that's all they've been doing. They've been
spamming in breakers and a little bit of play
action to the middle of the field to get this
passing offense serviceable and going here in
Houston. If Houston can also figure out how to
run the ball a little bit more efficiently heading
into the postseason, that to me is a team that's
on the cusp of, of being complete. So Houston
is my one, but I'll give you my one B and it
might surprise you. The Jacksonville Jaguars.
I think, I think that defense is for real. I
think that linebacker core can keep pace with
our tight ends in the play action game. And while
I think they're still figuring some things out
with their DBs, their DBs have been shown themselves
more than willing to tackle and fit the run when
called upon. I'm not sure I quite believe yet
that Trevor Lawrence is this, this version of
himself with this six total TD game that he had
this past Sunday, but he has looked really good
over the past four weeks. And the addition of
Jacobi Myers to that offense, it just feels like
that wide receiver room now slots in so much
better. You don't need Brian Thomas Jr. to now
do these in breaking routes coming across the
middle that he didn't want to do. He's now your
vertical threat, your sideline burner, and you've
got Myers owning all this space everywhere else
in the middle of the field. And dude, they run
the piss out of the ball with ETN junior. I mean,
it's just crazy. And they've got a good tight
end game too with this Brenton strange kid. That
that's an offense to me that's going to vex the
Buffalo Bills defense. And I think their defense
can throw enough wrinkles at the Bills offense
to make it competitive. So Houston to me is threat
one number one a But like, the Jaguars, man,
right now, that's who we're matched up with in
a 3 -6. If the playoffs were to start today,
that's not going to be an easy out, and the Bills
have played some weird games against that franchise
in the past. Yeah, it's one of those weird...
I feel like Houston and Jacksonville are those
two teams in the AFC that the Bills just seem
to not have an answer for, don't know how to
navigate. Yeah. Yeah. And it could be either.
There is, of course, you know, it's like crazy,
you know, white board with the cigarette, always
sunny in Philadelphia, meantime, Charlie Day,
baby. Yeah. Looking at looking at all of the
outcomes that could possibly result in the bills
with the first seed and a first round by. It
could happen. It's still it's not outside the
box. There's a lot of things that bills have
to win out and then a lot of other stuff has
to happen. There's maybe a couple of ties that
need to happen. But but really we could get there.
And so that's the still hoping for that. So for
the division in the first round by. But without
that, yeah, there's there's match ups I would
really not want to see. And there's teams I would
really want to see. You know, like, for instance,
the Houston Houston playing against Jack. Houston
playing against Jacksonville or Houston or Jacksonville
playing it's Denver Where the bills have to play
somewhere else would be ideal for me if we are
on the wild card weekend Just to get to the ground
two and have one of those two in each of those
matchups gone How do you feel if the if the matchup
somehow? Works itself out to where we get the
Patriots again in the wild card round How do
you feel about facing them for a third time traveling
to the Patriots? I feel good about it because
I I don't think that there's, I don't think there's
enough talent with the Patriots team broadly
as a roster for them, for the Bills not to have
an answer in some way, right? Like I think that
the Patriots threw everything they possibly could
at the Bills and they got their 21 point lead
and then they kind of, that was that, you know,
the counter punch came and they couldn't do anything,
so. They were working real hard to make Drake
may on those first couple of drives look like
Josh Allen. I mean, not asking him to throw the
ball. They were taking their runs to the outside,
outside the tackle, making our DB's tackle, which
is what we were going to do to them. The designed
runs for Drake may, they were working really
hard to not only try to win that game, but really
kind of rub it into the bill. Yes. Yes. I mean,
you could tell that they really cared about that.
They wanted to posterize it. Yeah, they did.
I mean, Diggs chirping, Hollins chirping, the
crybaby tour of Mike Vrabel with the New England
media now about the officials. And that's like,
well, the thing it's like, yeah, that was pathetic.
And it's like you you've got to be a real a real
piece of work to go out and start crying about,
you know, the the refs. As an NFL coach, any
NFL coach crying about the refs is a bad look
because everyone gets screwed sometimes. And
it also is a worse look because Vrabel, of course,
was a member as a player of the Patriots teams
that had Brady where they had statistically significant
bad calls against opponents and good calls for
them and rule changes to benefit them. And so
he just looks like an entitled crybaby. We're
openly found to be cheating on multiple occasions,
right? But I proven proven team of cheaters feels
like they should still be getting every call
and he still seems to feel that way Yeah, no,
it was crazy. But man that game meant a lot to
the Patriots, right? And it makes you wonder
it does make you wonder I think variables a great
coach. He's a great Great game day situational
coach. There are lots of examples, even in the
game against Buffalo, even a losing offer where
I'm like, man, variables just making the right
call there. You know what I mean? But it does
make you wonder if with the bye week leading
into that game, if they had maybe vested too
much emotion and closing out the division in
a certain way against this Buffalo Bills team,
it does make you wonder how they would recalibrate.
to get this Patriots team up for a third game
against the Bills, you know, so, you know, maybe
we see it, maybe we don't, but regardless, the
referee is better, better not swallow their flags
when the Buffalo Bills are offensively holding
the New England Patriots. Otherwise, Mike Frable
will be very upset with you. JJ, I will be upset
if we don't get to talk about this Cleveland
Browns matchup we have coming up. Um, it's meaningful
not only because it is an AFC game and conference
record may count towards some type of tiebreaker
later on down the road for the division or to
your point, hopefully for the, uh, one seed,
but JJ, this is also going to be the final road
game of the Buffalo bill season before they head
into the playoffs, um, against a really good
defense that I think is going to test this, this
version of the bill's offense and a couple of
interesting ways. So where do you want to start?
JJ, do you want to start? with the Cleveland
Browns defense against the Bills offense? Or
do you want to go Shador Sanders versus Matt
Mulatto? Let's go Cleveland defense Bills offense.
And I will give you my basic my basic complete
picture of the of the Browns defense and how
it's going to hurt the Bills. Miles Garrett.
That's it. End of show. No, Miles Garrett and
Alex Wright are both exceptionally good edge
rushers. They pair extremely well. And then of
course they have Shelby, the aged Shelby Harris
and the rookie Mason Graham in the middle to
round out that defensive line. It's a solid defensive
line especially against the run. Not to mention
their safeties, linebackers and one of their
two starting cornerbacks in Campbell, Tyson Campbell
are all Exceptional against the run like they
only they have one liability or I guess two liabilities
in the run game in tackling and that's their
slot corner and Their other outside corner web
like that's it. There's everybody else is awesome
at Philip fitting their own Devin Bush and Carson
Swessinger the rook Swessinger tackling machine
so good. It's it's it was hard to watch some
of their games and then kind of do the mental,
you know, do the fantasy land game of like, OK,
what would it look like? The bills, knowing what
I know about their blocking schemes, their approaches
to fitting the run and finding ways to to open
up seams. What would that look like? Where's
the cutback lane? It's nowhere. I think this
is to your point earlier. If the bills don't
find a way to make their outside wide receivers
work in this game, it's going to be. a miserable
long game, which is what we've seen with Bills
Brown so many times. Right. Like the nine six
nine threes. Yes. You know, thirteen tens. So
I'm really I'm really worried it's going to be
that because I could see even this high powered
Buffalo was offense. Even Josh Allen, who we
both know is exceptional. This is going to be
the very near second best rushing attack or pass
rushing attack that the Bills have faced. just
just a hair behind Houston. And it would be that
way, even if Miles Garrett was lined up across
from, you know, I don't know, T .J. Sanders,
right, like somebody who's not great so far.
Yeah. Because he is that exceptional. He's what
does he have? Twenty two already. Or he's got
twenty one and a half. He's got twenty one and
a half. So he could get the record against the
bills. Right. And so and I think he will. I fully
think he will too, yeah. I think he will too.
So the Cleveland Browns, JJ, number four in overall
defensive DVOA, number two against the run, better
than the Houston Texans who we've already kind
of laid a lot of praise at their feet for shutting
down this Buffalo Bills run game earlier this
season in that Thursday night game. Lots of problems
that this particular Cleveland Browns defense
presents to the Buffalo Bills Including the ability
because of that linebacker core you mentioned
to take away some of their answers in the passing
game I eat tight ends the Bills have been leading
hard into early play action boot action Shots
to tight ends up the seam and I mean swashinger
Excellent at guarding opposing tight ends. He's
not just a tackling machine. He's not just great
at the line of scrimmage and fitting the run.
This dude is legit in coverage as well. They're
the number four best team in DBOA when it comes
to stopping opposing tight ends as pass catchers.
JJ, the answers are, I think to your point, Shakir
in the slot, but then not, not much else. This
is also a Cleveland Browns team that's really
good against designed QB runs. They're number
three in DBOA. I, I find it really difficult
other than our defense flipping game script in
our favor and get, and winning the field position
game, which is how teams have stressed this Cleveland
Browns defense before, because shockingly their
red zone efficiency isn't top five. It's only
top 11. So if you're going to get to the Browns,
it's going to be somehow inside the twenties.
Right? So the D our defense to me, JJ has to
give us advantageous field position. Because
it's going to be a long day if the bills who
currently sit with the third worst average starting
field position in the league offensively have
to go 80 yards, 79 yards, 74 yards regularly
and matriculate the ball up the field against
this defense. Yeah, absolutely. It's gonna it's
gonna be tough. I'm I'm Yeah, I agree with field
position. That's the best analysis I think you
could give for this. Yeah, man, this is going
to be really hard. This is going to be so tough.
Yeah, I know. Well, and that's the thing, too,
is the way that the Bills work with their gap
and zone run scheme is by essentially finding
the mismatch, creating space, and then letting
James Cook navigate, right? He has patience.
He's great at navigating. They do that. But in
order to do that, you have to put pressure on
the weak link. You have to do those duo blocks
and scrape up to the linebacker and find a smaller
linebacker who's bad at getting off of a guard
or a center and make that seam happen where you
kind of build the runway. And they just don't
have that kind of liabilities. And then once
you get outside, okay, the bills have done both.
Okay, the gap run to the center, the duos with
a lead blocker. You know, if that's shut down,
OK, fine. We're going to go wide and make their
DBS and safety stack. Well, their DBS and safeties
are awesome at tackling. They're really good.
So, yeah, you don't they don't. I don't look
at this game and see a clear answer to how the
bills rushing it. Rushing attack is going to
lead. So they have to find a way with the passing
attack to lead, because I think that's the place.
Like you mentioned, you can you can make some
hay. The outside corners are not exceptional
coverage corners. They're much better kind of
just general generalists and all around corners.
And so you have to kind of play the matchups
to the outside. You have to make that a quick
hitting attack too, because Miles Garrett and
Alex Wright are not going to wait. Absolutely.
And you're going to have to figure out a way
to do it with less than maximizing your route
runners that you're putting out there because
You're going to have to leave some extra protectors
and get a Tyrell shavers, be at a running back,
right? Um, God, even there, even the Cleveland
Browns, when they attack running backs as pass
catchers are top five in the league in DVO way.
I just, yes, the answers will be few and far
between JJ, but to me, it's about giving our
offense as many bites at that Apple as we can
and simply win a war of attrition. And that's
going to be happened by our defense stepping
up against one Shador Sanders. So JJ, flipping
it over here, our defensive matchup against the
Cleveland Browns offense. This is a team that's
notably struggled to find its QB. They've gone
through various iterations from Joe Flacco to
Dylan Gabriel, now settling on Shador Sanders.
This is not, not that this has mattered for other
teams. The Cleveland Browns have not been overly
efficient. They're only number 29 in the league
when it comes to rushing of incency. And JJ,
this is the worst passing offense in the league
too, despite the fact that they've rotated through
three QBs. Shador Sanders is really unique to
me, JJ, not just because of the media hype around
him, but the fact that it's a night and day scenario.
When he is throwing behind the line of scrimmage,
running back screens, wide receiver screens,
his EPA per play is top four in the league according
to next gen stats. All other throws. meaning
all other throws, one yard past the line of scrimmage
and more, he is bottom four in the league. He's
rolling in with a completion percentage that
sits at 52 .4 % right now, and he just invites
a ton of pressure. Five TDs to six INTs this
year. He's basically playing like a rookie. To
me, JJ, whatever advantage the Cleveland Browns
defense has against this Buffalo Bills offense,
this Bills defense needs to take advantage of
the rookie QB that they're facing on the other
side, generate turnovers, which we haven't seen
them do in great consistency this year. and give
Josh Allen and James Cook multiple opportunities
for points up on the board. It could very well
be a field goal affair. But to me, this should
be a game where the Buffalo Bills are getting
nine, even 10 offensive drives just by virtue
of the fact that we should be able to expect
sacks and turnovers against this Cleveland Browns
offense. Yeah, they don't have a single wide
receiver that's rated better than like hundred
and sixth in the league, right? Like they are
they are very poor talent. talent wise on the
offensive side of the ball. Quinn Sean Judkins
and Harold Fanon Jr. are both awesome. I have
them both on my fantasy team. They can do really
good things. They can blow up here and there
if they if they have an opportunity to do so.
So I see some problems with the Bills rushing
defense here, but. It's not the same even as
the Patriots. They have a pretty poor offensive
line. Their right tackle is a seventh round pick.
Their left tackle is Cam Robinson, who's been
a journeyman, not super good left tackle. Their
center is one of the worst in the league. I think
he's a backup because I want to say that their
starting center went down. If their starting
center didn't go down, then it's atrocious. amount
of roster building to have Whippler starting
because he's one of the worst in the league.
So it's it's the kind of thing where I agree
with you completely. You know, based on when
you look at an opponent, you say, OK, what do
they do best? What do we need to shut down? They
don't do a lot very well on offense. Their offense
is quite inept, and that is why they only have
three wins on the season and they just lean on
their defense. And so, yeah, it might be a low,
low scoring field goal affair. But I do agree
that. The Bills defense has looked opportunistic
enough to, especially with Bosa in there playing
with Shaq Thompson. Hopefully this is a rebound
game for him. And then hopefully the Bills can
see Benford back on the outside because I think
that Benford not only. is a better corner than
any of their starting wide receivers. He also
offers so much in helping the wide run, you know,
support game. He's an incredible tackler and
they really need that. They will need that in
this game and a game where I feel like it's going
to get messy. It is. In a field goal affair,
it is really terrible that the Buffalo Bills
do not have their starting place kicker because
it looks like Matt Prater. Matt Prater's already
been ruled out for this game with an injury.
Did his gout acting up, his arthritis? Terrible.
That's terrible. That's terrible. He's been awesome.
He's been great. And we're both old men too.
So don't invite on him what you could curse us
with. I think he's our age, right? Is he 40?
Is he 42? He's 42. Yeah. Dear Jesus, yes. God
bless him and Phil Rivers, man. I know, yeah.
Dear Lord. All right, JJ, let's get some prediction
sure to go wrong here. The bills are favored
by 10. on the road against Cleveland, despite
the fact that they've got this Fanta defense.
Over -under is a 42 and a half, so Vegas is expecting
a fairly low -scoring game in this affair. JJ,
where are you at with final score? They're favored
by 10? They're favored by 10 on the road. What
is the over -under again? 42 and a half. OK.
Oh, my gosh. Stunning, isn't it? Yeah. I'm going
to say, oh, man, I'm going to say Bill's 21,
Brown's 13. Because I just that just that just
what that's what it feels like in my bones. Yeah,
I'm gonna go I'm gonna go bills 21 here Cleveland
three Okay, I think the bit I think it's gonna
be an ugly day for the for all sides of the ball
for the Buffalo Bills But this bills defense
With its four -man pressure should be more than
enough to get to Shador Sanders and cause him
to make some mistakes JJ, this could also very
well be a game where I'm screaming at the TV
because the Buffalo Bills defense, despite all
its issues, is playing an inferior opponent and
playing down to the level of that opponent, which
they have done so many times this season. But
it's December, playoff seeding is on the line.
I would hope that they find another gear and
figure it out. So I'm going to go Buffalo Bills
21, Cleveland Browns three. Okay. I would like
to present a prop, which is Over under, Shador
Sanders, half interception. It's the same prop
I brought up last week and got right when I said
over to Trey White. I called it Trey White with
a pick. I was surprised you waited this long
into the pod to bring that up. So I'm going to
say Shador Sanders throws an interception in
this game and I'm saying it's over half interception
and it's to Hairston this time. Yeah, oh Max
Hairston. Harrison could use one I I love the
way he's battled the past two weeks against T
Higgins in Cincinnati and then in battling his
run fits against New England Dude, I just see
that kids a gamer. I would love to see him get
a pick here Yeah, I'm gonna I'm gonna take the
over like Sanders is a low completion percentage
QB struggles with with It's gonna sound like
a shot and I guess it is struggles with the forward
passing game in the NFL And, you know, all the
bad habits that he had in college, he's brought
here to a really bad. Holds the ball around.
Yeah. Like to me, there is no reason why the
Bills shouldn't be able to turn him over, which
tells me that they probably won't. But so given
that that's the case, I'm still going to take
the over. I got faith in Max Ariston. He's my
guy. I've got one prop bet for you as well. JJ.
wide receiver catches in this game over under
five and a half. So the Buffalo Bills offense,
just so we're, has put up over 90 points combined
the past three weeks. Their wide receiver room
has a grand total of 17 catches during that,
during that time, that time frame. And they only
have one TD catch out of those 90 plus points.
So JJ over under five and a half catches. We've
already talked about how the wide receivers might
need to feature. I'm saying over I have to had
have to hit over because I want it like I said
earlier in the pod when I look at this this matchup
They have to have production from wide receivers
if they want the offense to be effective it's
not going to come just by force -feeding James
Cook and Trying to throw to the seam where the
strength of the Cleveland defense is if it's
over That shows me that Joe Brady has taken the
step he needs to, to be truly creative and truly
non -predictable in this particular game, which
is why I'm taking the under, because I am not
convinced that Joe Brady is going to lean into
any tenancy breakers. I think we're still going
to see a lot of boot action to tight ends. We'll
see how effective it is. I think we're going
to see a lot of stuff out of the Ty Johnson screen
game, Khalil Shakir screen game. I just think
that Brady believes more in the formula to beat
teams than we do as a general game watching fan
base. Even variable was saying it at the end
of this Patriots game. He's like, yeah, we knew
what they were running on offense. What did they
say after the Pittsburgh game? Yeah, we knew
what they were running on offense. Like it's
just a matter of whether or not you can stop
it. And I think Brady is a little bit of a sicko,
which I admire in that he likes doing stuff that
people know is coming and that they can't stop.
And I think he's addicted to that high. And I
think he's going to do it in this game. And I
don't think it's going to be effective. Right.
Yeah, no, I agree. And he's got to find a way
to pivot or it's not going to work. Yeah. We'll
see how it goes. We'll see how it goes. But yeah,
man, it's going to be a very telling game, I
think. It's going to be the last, I think, great
defense the Bills are going to face this season
before they enter into the playoffs. So great
road test for them, without a doubt, is they
get playoff caliber. So JJ, always a pleasure
podding with you. For all of you listening at
home, like, share, and subscribe wherever you
get your pods. We are on YouTube, Apple, Spotify.
And as always, go Bills. Go Bills.