All right, welcome back to Buffalo Bread podcast
We are in week 15 and it is the formal battle
for the AFC East Which I don't know if anybody
on the outset of the season would have believed
that this would be the case where the the New
England Patriots are first in the entire AFC
conference and the Bills are going to their house
for a matchup to see if they can split the series
How are you boys doing? Dan, who do we have with
us? JJ, I'm very excited to welcome our resident
Patriots expert, Brandon Bennett back to the
pod. Brandon, it's been a few weeks since you
were on talking to all this wonderful, optimistic
stuff about your turnaround Patriots here. First
in the AFC East, competing for first in the AFC
conferences, JJ said. How have you been doing
the past couple of weeks, man, other than enjoying
a luxurious winning streak from your boys? I've
been doing really well. Luxurious is a good...
I hate the way you said that. Can you lower the
smugness when you say, I'm doing really well?
Oh, man. Aggressive win streak. You know, however
you want to characterize it. I'm doing really
well, and I appreciate you having me back in
this most timely of moments. This is a very timely
moment. Um, cause as JJ mentioned, I mean, this
is it, man. This is like t -shirt and hat party
for you guys. If you knock off the bills this
Sunday. So we got a big one at a non -flexed
1pm start, which I'm a little bit surprised about.
And we can talk about the, we're going to talk
about the magnitude of this game, but we do have
1pm meaningful football here being played in
week 15. I mean, here's where it's at. And it's
a pretty simple scenario. The Pats will outright
clinch the AFC East. With a win against the Buffalo
Bills. They're coming off a bye week. They're
coming off a, how many games in a row is it?
Is it nine, Brandon? The win streak? Is it nine?
Yeah. It's I believe 11. Is it not? It's 11 games
a tier. God, man. 11 games in a row. That is
wild. So there is a lot to unpack. Big implications,
but also I would argue that both of these two
teams, scarily for you guys, hopefully for us.
are different in a better way than when they
first faced each other in week five. And we can
get into some of that too. But overall, Brandon,
you're the guest, we're gonna let you lead in
here. Real quick, from the Patriots fan point
of view, what are some things you think Bill's
fans should generally keep an eye out for as
we watch the Patriots take on our squad this
week? Yeah, so I think... Something to keep an
eye on which you know, I think Bill's fans are
naturally and organically gonna do anyway is
What Stefan Diggs does on the field? He's been
relatively quiet since the return of K Sean booty
back on the field But I feel as though what we
saw the last time New England played the Bills
from digs specifically was you know, I think
surprising for a lot of folks with digs coming
off the injury. I think the other thing too is
that Ramandre Stevenson is getting healthier.
The bills have not been that great at stopping
the run. So I think we're going to see a two
-headed monster between Ramandre and Trevion
Henderson. From a fantasy perspective, I have
my fingers crossed for Henderson. I got my money
there. So I'm hoping to see Ramondre more so
in the past protection role and Trevion more
in the past catching downs, getting those PPR
points for me. But that is what I'm going to
be looking for. So. Those are both, I think,
very. very in line with what I'm looking for
too, particularly on the offensive side of the
ball for you guys. And also scary in the way
that I don't know the Bills have a lot of answers
for that. JJ Stefan Diggs has been lining up
in the slot for the New England Patriots. I want
to say I saw a stat today earlier on when I was
prepping for this. It's like 68 % of the time,
69 % is a pretty high rate. And you and I have
been watching Taron Johnson, God love him, age
before our eyes this season. How concerned are
you that Diggs is going to be matched up frequently
against Taron Johnson? terrified because I think
Frankly, we know what kind of player stuff on
digs can be he may have been quiet But he's he's
the kind of player that as a as you know for
four years with the Bills we saw he'd kind of
have some lulls for a couple games during a season
and then he'd pop off for eight catches and two
touchdowns right and so it's the kind of thing
that as a Bills fan and having watched him during
you know the better part, the prime of his career.
I'm worried this is one of those pop off times
because Taron Johnson has struggled, as you've
mentioned, and anybody that they've tried to
line up in the slot has really kind of struggled.
even in Tarrant Johnson's absence. So it has
been a pain point for this defense. The passing
defense for the Bills has actually been pretty
solid overall throughout the measure of the season.
And their rushing defense over the past three
weeks has been top five in the league. Um, and
so that is a change that hopefully will carry
into this one. And that has been mostly because
of the change at linebacker from, uh, Terrell
Bernard to Shaq Thompson. So our Lord and savior.
He's, he's really come on in a real big way.
Um, but yeah, from the slot, I'm very, very worried
about Stefan Diggs because I think that. you
know, Christian Benford has shown up and shown
that maybe early in the season, his struggles
were more injury related than talent related.
And on the outside, mixing in Maxwell Hairston
and Trudevius White actually looking pretty solid.
You know, I feel a little bit better about our
outside corners and safeties, especially. But,
you know, that slot is a real worry. And then
again, just as you mentioned. Trayvon Henderson
has looked like he's come on as an excellent
rookie and the Bills run defense though it has
been very good. I don't know that the overall
tackling issues and we've seen a much bigger
sample size in the Sean McDermott era of them
being very suspect in rush defense. Oh, a hundred
percent. And Henderson, he's like a missed tackle
machine. I think he's got a missed tackle rate
of 21 .8 % this season. And we know that the
Buffalo Bills struggle just generally tackling
in space, right? This is a game, JJ, where I
worry that our, our beloved all pro po is going
to get caught like out of his getting faked out
of his cleats by someone like Henderson and open
space. And it's just going to be a reminder of
where some of our vulnerabilities are. Brandon,
I want to kick it back to you real quick because
I mentioned the term vulnerability and I am the
transition King. You guys will be without will
Campbell on this offensive line, but even when
Campbell was in Drake may his, his kind of. suffered
through like a top seven a top seven pressure
rate from opposing defenses even when your offensive
line was fully healthy it looks like the bills
are gonna get joey bosa back gregor so who is
the most invisible twenty million dollar man
in the NFL has. picked moments against the Patriots
where he's decided he wants to play to the full
effect of a 6 -8 frame. Do you have any concerns
with this offensive line being able to protect
Drake May against a depleted, maybe not so effective,
but still kind of feisty and fiery Buffalo Bills
pass rush? I think You're kind of hitting the
nail on the head as to what are the necessary
ingredients for the Bills to win this game. I
think they're going to have to make May leak
out of the pocket, put pressure, because if you
give him any amount of time with that arm, his
accuracy, he's going to find an open man. So
it does concern me, because I think if the Bills
are going to Walk away with a win on the road
for this game. It's gonna be because Drake may
can't get the ball out Yeah, and JJ we love talking
about big fat dudes moving other big fat dudes
when it comes to trench play on this pod for
me I think it's the edges is as we were just
discussing but Drake may and Listen, you're the
you are the technician. So you feel free to correct
anything. I'm about to tee you up with Drake
may in the way he climbs in the pocket. I've
never seen a second year QB with that kind of
pocket discipline He loves to keep his eyes downfield
and when he feels edge pressure coming He just
pretty naturally steps up in the pocket What
I saw since each was since he start to do though
and what I saw a lot in the New York Giants game
Was that they were running stunts with their
edges. They were bringing in kind of like this
this mushy looking blitz scenario where it looks
like you had a linebacker as a spy, but then
he was coming in a delayed blitz on the middle.
Basically to take advantage of Drake May stepping
up in the pocket in the way that he does and
trying to, uh, trying to pressure him on the
interior. Do you think This is a game where we
see like a TJ Sanders who's been around a lot
of big plays, but hasn't been able to make one
yet. Do we see a TJ Sanders step up? Is this
a big Dion Walker game? Does De 'Quan Jones factor
in with some interior pressure? What do you think
the Bills are going to do to try to bring pressure
on Drake? They're going to not bring pressure.
I'm going to disagree, but go ahead. Yeah, no,
no, no. And I'll say this. They're going to not
bring pressure if Joey Bosa is not good to play
for this one. He's been battling a hamstring
and a wrist thing. If he plays, then the Bills
have a good chance of bringing pressure and bringing
Drake May down. They got him four times in the
previous meetup. And that pass rush was not kind
of gangbusters. For their season average right
like that that didn't have huge pressure rates
in that game But Drake may has taken the most
sacks in the league that are his fault of all
active quarterbacks And so that doesn't mean
he's taking the most sacks. It just means of
the sacks He's taken more of them were his kind
of misunderstanding where he needed to push and
that I think is second year QB play stuff right
like and he does look awesome in his his sense
of the pocket it's just that he still has that's
still something he needs to brush up so where
he moves and where he finds space when he tries
to press things later you know past the two or
three second mark on a down is it either ends
up being a scramble and awesome or a you know
really clutch pass and awesome or he walks himself
into sacks. And so the reason I say the Bills
are not going to bring pressure is because their
pressure rates from their front four are 32nd
of 32 teams over the past five weeks. And a lot
of that has to do with Joey Bosa being dinged
up. The absence of Michael Hoyt, the absence
of Ed Oliver, the players they had planned on
providing that natural organic pass rush are
not on this team right now. That was very well
reasoned, but all I heard you say was Drake May
is a terrible second -year QB without pocket
presence Brandon defend your boy. No Pardon my
take No, we're, uh, sadly we don't have their,
their kind of followership or listenership. Um,
Brandon from your serial killer layer, I want
you to give me a couple of things, give me a
couple of things to, to keep in mind here on
the defensive side of the ball. So. I've got
some thoughts on Drake May too that I'm going
to weigh in on here in a minute, but like the
advantage of having you come on the pod is that
you watch the New England Patriots about as closely
as I've ever seen a fan watch another team outside
of maybe me and JJ. Defensively, it looks like
you guys are going to get Kyra's Tango back,
which is going to be huge for the middle of your
defensive line, right? But your, your squad since
week nine has had a hard time stopping the run.
Um, they're giving up on average about 4 .5 yards
per carry to opposing running backs. And even
in that week five game, James Cook, while he
didn't get to tote the rock a lot when he did
was hitting his normal efficiency metrics. Do
you think the New England Patriots with Tonga
back have what it takes to stop the Buffalo Bills
run game in a way that's going to make force
them to go to the air? So you'll have to tell
me what metrics you're referring to because James
Cook on the season had his second worst yards
per carry against the Patriots and that was at
home. And so the Bills who have been not great
on the road this season, great at home, not great
on the road, going into Gillette Stadium, how
does James Cook you know, right the ship, I think
is a bigger question. To your question, yes,
you know, I do think the Patriots will have an
answer for James Cook the way that they did earlier
in the season, even with, you know, the injuries
that they've seen. Yeah. You know his yards per
his yards per carry over expected were about
his normal rate His success rate was about average
in that game Like it really was the turnovers
that killed the overall offensive efficiency
for the Bills in that first game And then there
were just large stretches and JJ We've seen this
before where the Bills just stopped going to
James Cook for a while for whatever reason, right?
I mean, I and often those are the games that
the Bills lose if you look at the games where
Cook, you know gets the opportunities to carry
the rock. The bills are more likely to win in
those scenarios. Oh, a hundred percent. And I
think with Tonga back and with, um, even though,
uh, Milton's out, uh, you guys still have Barmore
who is on the injury report, but it looks like
he's going to play. I think we're going to, I
think we're going to attack your guys edge, edge
rushers. They're a little bit lighter on the
lighter side. And I think we're going to make
Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis tackle in
space on James Cook. I could see a lot of, JJ,
crack toss, crack toss anybody in this particular
game? Crack toss, pin pull, and then the ever
amazing motion, tight end or regigilium motion
to the center of the. center of the line gap
play. Those are all of our favorite things. So,
and really the reason to your point, Brandon,
that you see the bills go away from running with
James Cook is when a team shows that they, you
know, in a 10 snap sample size have a very strong
answer for those six plays. The Bills are like,
well, you cooked us. I guess we got a Josh Allen.
Josh, go do something. Play hero ball. Back to
the drawing book. Yeah. Yeah. So, but to just
a real quick question, because I don't know what
the answer is. Is Gillette Stadium, is that a
natural or artificial? Pretty sure that's an
artificial turf. OK, damn it. Because I just
found the stat and it's it's it's fascinating
to me. James Cook is eight point six yards per
carry on grass. and 4 .3 on artificial turf.
Wow. Well, that's wild. That's wild. So I thought
that'd be a nice tidbit for this one. But yeah,
so the bills, the thing about the previous in
terms of like matchups and keys to the game,
the thing about the early week five game against
the Pats was that bills were I mean, it was a
three point victory for the Pats and the bills
lost the turnover battle three to one. Right.
So like it I think and they had 11 penalties
for 90 yards. The Pats also had 8 penalties for
93 yards. I forgot the Sean Hawkeley game. Oh
yeah. So the like the shot themselves in the
foot factor, it looked like vintage Patriots,
right? The Patriots was like, OK, make mistake,
mistake your way into failure, right? Like and
that has been in the Sean McDermott era, largely
the way that he's. maintain such success in the
division and broadly in the league year over
year in the regular season has been, we're going
to play clean football and let other people make
mistakes. That was the whole playbook last year.
And so for them to kind of flip the script, uno
reverse card on the Bills in week five, it's
really a question of who's going to show up to
this game for the Bills on Sunday. Is it the,
are they going to shoot themselves? Which team
is going to be that team, right? Who's going
to make more critical errors? This past Sunday
against the Bengals, it was the Bengals, right?
Joe Burrow on two consecutive pass plays, intercepted
one for a pick six and the other, you know, for
a tip turnover that turned the whole game upside
down after at one point, the Bengals were leading
by three scores. So really, I think it's a question
of which of these defenses is able to be, you
know, is able to take advantage of mistakes.
and which of these offenses is able to cash in.
And to the previous point, Christian Gonzalez
and Carlton Davis are 100 % capable of tackling
on the outside because that's what they did in
week five. That's the best way that they shut
down the Bill's Wide Zone running team. Because
at that time, the... the bills were not really
going gap too much. They were really trying that
long, wide, spread it out crack toss that requires
the safeties, linebackers and CBs to fill and
tackle and have discipline in their lanes. And
the, you know, the Patriots showed they were
extremely ready for it, which means that with
an extra week of preparation on the buy, I don't
expect them to show up and kind of puke all over
themselves with that job this time around. You
know, there was another thing that, because we
talk about how the Patriots seem very well prepared
for the Bills run game. The other thing that
absolutely pissed me off about that week five
game was the fact that we let Robert Spillane,
who to me is the most annoying New England Patriot,
he's slow, like he's big, he's clunky, but they
let Spillane run downhill into the line of scrimmage
and fill his run fits without any real resistance
from this Buffalo Bill squad. I would love to
see JJ, the Buffalo Bills makes Blaine play a
little bit more horizontal so that he's not there
in support of Davis and Gonzalez in those run
fits, shutting things down outside the tackles.
Like the Kansas City Chiefs strategy, can we
take advantage of this linebacker core on New
England with a little bit of tight end play action,
make them feel like they need to play more coverage
against Knox and Kincaid and free some things
up outside the tackles for Cook? It's all I want
for Christmas. And they did it against Cincinnati.
They did it against Cincinnati. Dude, I was at
that game. I was in like a spiritual state when
I saw early down play action to the tight ends
on behalf of the Buffalo Bills. The thing we've
been asking for all year. I think that's going
to factor in. Should the New England Patriots
be able to shut down some of this run game with
James Cook again, right? I want to switch to.
Couple of things are the offensive side of the
ball JJ. But first let's let you run through
empty the notebook Anything else about this new
England Patriots offense and this Buffalo Bills
defense You feel like we need to keep an eye
out for here before we start talking about our
Lord and Savior Josh Allen You know, I think
that the the Patriots don't have what anyone
would consider like a premier alpha dog wide
receiver that the Bills have to really look out
for and that really plays in favor of the Buffalo
Bills defense because they do not have Christian
Medford is very, very good. They do not have
like the premier shutdown corner at this stage.
uh for their team they will mirror the best receiver
from from the Patriots with with Benford and
he has excellent coverage stats over the past
three or four games um so really what it becomes
and this is like sounds sounds like such a trope
but it becomes a game of fundamentals if the
Buffalo Bills defense can be sound and tackling
fill where they need to fill and keep Drake May
kind of behind the sticks. We know he can make
some magic happen on third and long. And that's
where the Bills are kind of that's the Achilles
heel, right? Third and 16 conversions is the
thing that everybody seems to be able to get
against this defense. But it's also the kind
of thing that when the Bills are humming, it's
because they're putting teams in those positions
and then mistakes are made. Right. And so I think
the big question becomes this defense is pretty
well. lined up in terms of skill except for pass
rush. If they can get any kind of pass rush married
with coverage, I think that they have a great
shot of stalling or at least frustrating the
Patriots. Because all of the metrics would point
to that this Patriots offense has been successful,
but they've also been winning very close games
and they have not, you know, they're not one
of the premier top four or five offenses in the
league. They need to be methodical and that's
Kind of plays into the bill strength and defense.
Yeah, they are there to your point JJ They are
six and two right now in one score games this
season So yeah, that is a that's a metric that's
definitely in their favor But you know can regress
to the mean very very quickly under the right
circumstances And then before we move on here
give you the last word anything else From your
point of view that we should be keeping an eye
out for as our squad square off this Sunday Yeah,
I just want to go back to something that JJ just
said about there really not being a number one
alpha receiver in the Patriots Offense what we
have seen is Drake may spreading the ball to
whoever's open When it's not digs, you know hunter
Henry is a very very reliable option. I can't
tell you off the top of my head how the bills
have been against tight ends. But he is a fairly
reliable weapon that Drake may seems to go to
when the going gets tough. Brandon, I can answer
your question on bills against opposing tight
ends. They're squarely middle of the pack. However,
in the games where they have excelled. IE Kansas
City and shutting down Travis Kelsey, they have
deployed Cole Bishop exclusively as their tight
end eraser, right? This is where you see some
of those dime looks and obvious past situations
where you'll get a mix of Jordan Hancock or Cam
Lewis with Jordan Poirier. And then Cole Bishop
is just attached at the hip of an opposing team's
tight end. I think, I think we're probably going
to see something similar in this game. Listen,
the Bills play a lot of split safety coverage
and Drake May is good against split safety coverage
and the Bills are good at running that defense.
It's kind of a strength on strength. I could
see them so that they don't have to sacrifice
that too high shell that they're likely going
to put over Drake May and a lot of passing situations
to guard against the deep ball. I could see that
being more of a dime look where an extra linebacker
comes off the field. And then you get Cole Bishop
lined up at the line of scrimmage with Hunter
Henry. JJ, is that off, or would you agree with
that? I would agree with that, and I would say
that over the last seven games, the Bills have
given up one touchdown to a tight end, so it's
not a position that's really killing them right
now. There have been years in the past where
the stats sort of have been weighed a little
bit heavier because of playing against the Ravens
and the Chiefs, but the Bills, you know... Their
poor poor defense against tight ends has been
far improved this year Yeah, it's been it's definitely
been on the upswing since Jordan Poir came back
since we figured out Shaq Thompson and like no
shade of Terrell Bernard who we both like but
since he's been injured Just the performance
overall the spine of that defense in the middle
of the field against opposing tight ends has
been improved as well So yeah All right, or not
Benford Bert. Yeah, I know I said Bernard. Yeah.
All right. All right guys awesome thoughts Uh,
got another question. I want to tee up for you
guys. The, the bills, let's say the bills went
right. Here's my question. Is it going to matter
in the grand scheme of the division? I mean,
the Patriots hold all the tiebreakers after this
game. We only have three games left in the season.
The bills will be at Cleveland and then home
for Philly, home for the jets. And I could see
the bills easily dropping one of those games.
Uh, Hen Hen, I think it's probably Cleveland.
Miles Garrett and that run defense. The Pats
have the Ravens who look like a shell of themselves.
Then they are at the Jets and then they are at
home against the Dolphins who, yeah, I've given
them some fits and starts in the past, but I
mean, JJ, I feel like we're going to need a lot
of help here. So Brandon, I'm going to start
with you being the guest here. Let's say the
Bills win, right? Give me your percentage of
confidence that you feel like the Pats still
walk away the division this year. Yeah, that's
a good question. I think there's been a lot of
skepticism and negative talk surrounding the
Patriots recently because of the strength of
their schedule this season. And so this game
is going to I think answer a very important question
of like whether there's any validity to that.
Is this fool's gold or is it the real thing?
So I think I'm still fairly confident and a lot
of that confidence comes from Vrabel and what
Vrabel has been able to do this season and absolutely
turning this team around. Um, I would say I'm
still, you know, 75 % confident, um, that the
Patriots can get it done. Nice. JJ, what about
you? Bill's assuming the, let's say the Bills
win this Sunday, confidence rating and them taking
the division. Um, it's funny because we were
in this situation a few years ago where the Dolphins
had 10 wins and the Bills were six and six. And
so being, you know, that many wins down, I felt
more it's weird. I felt more confident farther
back from the Dolphins than I do this far back
from the same because the Dolphins are absolute
clown shoes. And have always been and two is
not a real quarterback as far as I'm concerned.
Because he's left and not. Yeah. Well, yeah.
I mean, he's left handed. He's short. He's not
very athletic. He doesn't have when he doesn't
have Tyree kill or somebody else that he can
just chuck it up to. He looks completely average
or below average. Right. Like. And so their entire
offense right now is just throwing quick outs
to Devon H and like that's that tells me all
I need to know. This Patriots team is like a
real competitor, as far as I can tell, and I'm
not believing all this schedule hype, because
it's the NFL. The margins are incredibly tight.
The worst team in the league and the best team
in the league are not that far apart. They're
usually just a few key pieces apart, one of them
always being a quarterback, right? And so for
me, it's like, OK, Bills win this one. Then they're
counting on winning out. plus the Patriots dropping
one to the Jets or the Dolphins, because that
is the only way. So I don't have very high confidence.
I think that the Bills are sort of shooting for
a top seeding of fifth to take on hopefully the
winner of the AFC North, because I think that's
gonna be the most likely favorable outcome. Yeah,
I really wanna, I've heard a lot of Buffalo Bills
media be like, if the Patriots are the second
seed, Bill bills would be great in the seven
in the seven seed and knock New England out early.
I'm like, I don't know if I want all that. Um,
and I kind of want to avoid the six seed too,
because I think Jacksonville, if it is them is
going to be pretty good. Like that's a pretty
good team that we can talk about if it comes
to it. I mean, reality is I, my confidence level
is at about a 12, even if the bills win bills
that have to win out JJ Deere point, the pass
would have to drop one to the Ravens. Drop another
one to either the Jets or the Dolphins. And I
just, I don't see that happening, right? I just
don't see that happening. I think though. Vrabel
is going to have these Patriots so fired up,
they're not going to want to back in, quote unquote,
to a division championship. They're going to
want to knock off the defending champs on their
own home turf in New England and make it a real
t -shirt and hat party, I think, on Sunday. And
that's the goal I think is going to have them
singularly focused on. God, man. I can't wait
to get to game predictions, but yeah. We have
to, now we have to flip it, right? And I have
to ask you guys. If the Bills lose this game,
does Bean go? Does Sean McDermott go? You look
at how teams have brought in a new head coach
this season that's turned things around. Ben
Johnson, what he's done with the Bears, right?
Just for one example. So did the Bills go that
route? Given the rhetoric that this window of
opportunity for a Bill's postseason run seems
to be closing. And I guess, you know, the B to
that question is, do you put any stock in that
rhetoric that's been going around that this that
this window is closing that Josh Allen's prime
is going to come to an ending soon? Man, it's
almost like you've got a lot of Bill's friends
that talk about this stuff regularly. So, you
know, it's weird. It's weird because I want to
take this bait, but I will say, I think the decision
to move on from any of the coaching staff is
excluded for me from whatever happens in this
game, right? I'm slightly more optimistic about
a long view. I mean, listen, I think the Patriots
have played really, really well. When I look
at the underlying metrics though, and I look
at some of the things they really struggle with,
like the offensive line, when I look at how weak
the spine of that defense is, right? And now
the fact that they're not going to get a top
four pick next year, they're probably going to
be picking more in the late 20s or early 30s.
I think it's going to be harder to address those
holes in the long run. And next year, they're
going to have a first place schedule. Like they're
going to play the Texans, right? They're going
to play the Chiefs. They're going to play the
Broncos. And I think... Let's say they finished
15 and two, they could very well end up making
personal decisions that make them better. But
I think because of the one score games and some
of these underlying metrics in the long view,
they regressed back to the main and they could
be a 10 or 11 win team next year. And to me,
that still primes the bills to be able to compete
for the division. So I think Sunday, Brandon,
to your original question, isn't defining for
me. Is a window closing, even though I know that's
what the media narrative is going to be. I'm
more, I'm more high on the Bills long view because
of the way Allen is playing right now. Now to
your question about moving on from the coaching
staff. I will tell you, there are a lot of Bills
fans that think after 13 seconds, we should have
done that no matter what. The, I'm going to say
something that's going to be absurd. If the Bills
win the Superbowl, I think we should jettison
both. Brady and Babbage, no matter what, and
start over at the coordinator position. Because
if the Bills make a run to the Super Bowl, it's
going to be because of Josh Allen doing some
Superman stuff. And it's not going to be all
of a sudden because Brady figured out how to
creatively scheme for wide receivers and open
up the passing game, or Babbage figured out how
to call plays. You know what I mean? I think
it is on the table, even if the Bills reach the
height of their success, there are massive shakeups
amongst this coaching staff to extend that window.
Great question. I think the outcome on Sunday
though is excluded for me from whatever decisions
need to happen with the coaching staff. JJ, what
about you? Are you going to take that bait? I
won't take that bait because because I just don't
see that as realistic knowing what I know about
the ownership and I could see It's like, maybe
this is pessimistic of me, but anytime this conversation
comes up with any Bills fans that I have in my
circle and like, Oh, everybody should go. I absolutely
agree with Dan that Brady and Babbage. They do
not turn. They don't move the needle for me as
it was coordinated. I think they have huge flaws
in their scheme and huge flaws in their game
planning and their play calling. And so I would
love for them to be changed. I don't see McDermott
or Bean literally going anywhere in less. They
turned in like five and 12 season, like two years
in a row. And like, I just don't, with, with
Alan, like, I just don't see the ownership team
who has gotten the Sabres wrong four times. Going
back to the well and trying to get a new coaching
staff when they have somebody who won the division
five, five years in a row has been to the playoff
six of seven seasons has a generational quarterback.
Always competitive in the big moments. I just
don't, and I don't see it, I don't see, I think
that they continue to accept whatever rationale
or reasoning Bean and McDermott are giving. But
I would be hopeful for a change at coordinators.
And I don't think that's gonna happen in season.
Yeah, no, no way. Especially not right now. I
will say this. Stefan Diggs was right. He was
right to force his way out of Buffalo because
I don't buy into any of the stuff between him
and Josh. I think the relationship probably became
a little bit frayed, but I think the reason that
he left was because he saw the writing on the
wall with the scheme Brady was going to run.
what it was going to mean for that wide receiver
room and how they would be utilized and what
they'd be asked to do. And I think he rightfully
took a bet on himself. He's like, I still got
gas in the tank. I'm not going to sit here and
waste away for the remaining three years of this
new contract blocking off the edge, like chipping
Will Anderson off the edge. So James could get
an extra three yards. You know what I mean? And
Brandon, I think you guys have been the benefit
of that. Because you've gotten the best you've
gotten the best version of digs not just on the
field but off the field I mean the past couple
of games He's not been targeted a very high rate
the sensei game and the Giants game Yet he has
been saying all the right things motivating that
team you can see him active on the sideline saying
the right things in the locker room Brandon,
how do you feel about? The role Stefan digs has
played with this team this year overall and is
this a guy? You want to see return to the squad
next year? Yeah. So if you go back to when you
guys had me on before the season started, I had
a ton of pessimism around Stefan Diggs. Didn't
want him on the team. Don't like the negativity.
I didn't like, you know, what was happening during
the preseason, right? All that drama. And as
a Patriots fan, it's like, oh, man, like, here
we go. Like, you know, we signed up for this.
Like, now we got to deal with this. you know,
childish behavior and a guy who thinks that he's
better than everybody else around him. And he's
done something very different, right? I think
he's done a good job changing some of that reputation
that surrounds him. Being more of a locker room
guy, a more team -oriented individual and that's
translated to... productivity. I like the effort
that we see from him. Just to draw a comparison
to some concerns around George Pickens lately
and how he's been very lackadaisical on his route
running and not really giving a whole lot of
effort. I think it's been surprising and refreshing
to see Diggs really trying to ball out and get
himself open for when May is scrambling, extending
the play, and finding himself in the space like
he used to do when he was a Buffalo Bill. So
it's been pleasantly surprising. JJ, Stefan Diggs
hits the free agent market next year. Do you
want the Bills to pick him back up? He wouldn't
come back. He would never sign that deal. What
if Brady is gone? What if Brady is gone? I don't
want them to pick him up, but I also think that
that's the only way he would come back He would
he would be he would consider it He would never
I don't think he'd ever sign back and the reason
I don't think he would is Because it's just one
of those things that you just sort of put that
chapter behind you And then the reason the reason
I definitely necessarily wouldn't want him is
even with a scheme that was way, way, way, way
more friendly to outside wide receivers under
table. Stefan Diggs was absolutely ineffective
and disappeared in major games in the playoffs
repeatedly. He was too easy to erase when they
needed him. So I don't think I don't think Bean
would necessarily be as excited about it either.
Yeah, yeah. I think I think between the two of
us, I've always been the bigger Stefan Diggs
fan. And this is something I would definitely
entertain. in a revamped build out of the room.
He wouldn't be the only guy I'd want to bring
in, but I could see him have a meaning like,
listen, everyone says, you guys need an X, you
need an X. We've been at our most successful
and Josh has been his most successful when we've
had that Z wide receiver position all filled
out. I think of John Brown, right? I think of,
um, Emmanuel Sanders playing that role a lot.
You know, I mean, that's when Josh has been his
most successful when he's got a guy that can
operate on the field side, um, and in space and
get separation. So, uh, yeah. Um, the ESPN 30
for 30 is going to be wild if. Josh Allen ends
up Dan Marino and never wins a Super Bowl. And
a big reason that we historically track back
as to why that happened is because the Buffalo
Bills could not keep the Diggs Allen thing going
because they wanted to roll with Joe Brady, who
may be two years and done. It's just, it's going
to be crazy. That's going to be crazy. All right.
Brandon, this is where you can gloat unapologetically.
I want to switch gears a little bit and I want
to talk about kind of QBs. Listen, regardless
of what happens on Sunday, we're going to see
a really great entertaining matchup between two
of the league's best QBs as they're playing right
now. And with the emergence of May this season,
it gives us the opportunity to kind of revisit.
I think conventional wisdom around the quarterback
tiers in this league. There has been a top four
for what feels like forever. As far as the elite
of the elite, you've got Allen, Mahomes, Jackson,
and Burrow in whatever order you want to put
it in. Brandon, where does Drake May currently
sit in that pantheon of QBs? Would you insert
him into the top four or is he somewhere still
just on the outside looking in? Really really
tough question and I feel like it's a tough question
because Drake Mays in his sophomore season and
Really only played half a season last year with
a different head coach So I think there's a lot
to be found out. However You know if he seems
to be the real deal, you know, so I would put
him top four. I think that's fair Oh, all right.
So who are you moving out of that tier? You've
got Alan Mahomes, Jackson and Burrow. And if
you want this podcast ratioed, tell us why it's
Alan. Burrow is probably the easiest one on the
chopping block here when we're talking about.
I didn't think you were going to go there. Yeah,
who's going to sort of slip out of that elite,
you know, sort of S tier category. And I don't
just mean injury wise. I just think that the
situation that burrows in is not. a great one
when you look at some of the financial decisions
that the Bengals have made, where they have most
of their money clustered and the deficit that
you see being very prevalent in other areas of
the field. That's how he got hurt, right? Is
because there was zero protection for him. OK,
so what you have T Higgins and Jamar Chase, two
of the best wide receivers, incredible athletes.
You know if you're sacked after one and a half
seconds like that's not really enough time for
those guys to get open so I Yeah, I if anyone's
gonna fall off. It's gonna be Joe burrow in my
opinion Nice JJ. What about you? What were you
putting Drake may here in the current pantheon
of cubies? Now hang on young wik whippersnapper
is kind of what I that's where I that's the colon
Subtitle I'd put under Drake because like I I
think that, you know, if you've listened to the
pod, I have a lot of respect for him. I think
he's an excellent talent. I think that, you know,
early in the season, all of the tongue in cheek,
like baby Josh Allen stuff when he would like
break out of an absolute sure sack and run for
30 or 40 yards. was, was fun. Uh, and I think
he has those skills. He's, he's got a great,
he's great arm talent. He's a better anticipatory
thrower than Josh Allen was in his second year
for sure. He's got a better deep ball right now
than Josh Allen has right now. Um, and so there's
a lot of a really, really good skills there that
I see. Um, but, and I've said this with so many
different players. consistency is what makes
superstars right like he has to show that this
isn't just a flash in the pan that he can build
a season on season even if he just has another
season where he's considered an MVP level talent
I think then then I'm happy to square him right
away in the top four I think his legacy is gonna
be defined by how well this team drafts moving
forward because the Patriots have been notoriously
bad at drafting except for this past year, where
I think they did an exceptional job picking up
Campbell, Henderson, Kyle Williams in the first
three rounds. And we have not yet seen the Kyle
Williams breakout, but I, as a fan, have a lot
of hope in the two of them building chemistry
together over time. and what that's going to
look like. But yeah, how how variable drafts
in the next couple of years I think is going
to tell a big part of Drake May's story. My advice
would be, especially if you guys are picking
in the low 20s, high 30s, trade that first round
pick and a little bit of future draft capital
for Justin Jefferson and then you just won't
have to worry about it. And Drake May will be
immediately top five. I. No, you mentioned the
deep ball accuracy JJ. I mean his completion
percentage on throws of 28 plus yards is like
51 .6 % stops in the league. And not just that
it's statistically pretty, but like when you
watch him on film that deep ball it sure is pretty.
Here is the most wild stat about Drake May and
I can't believe we're saying this about a second
year QB. Tight window throws. He's only squeezing
in to tight windows on about like 16 % of his
throws. It's like 15th in the league. His completion
percentage on tight window throws is 52%. The
next closest guy is 10 points lower than him.
There's a reason tight window throws are so difficult
to complete. And his completion percentage on
tight window throws get better the further down
the field he is throwing the ball. I mean, listen,
I think that's a bit of a vulnerability for him
too. Um, and we saw since he start to squeeze
some of those passing windows for him and that's
how they ultimately ended up generating a pick
with him. Right. But I think there's some vulnerability
there, but until opposing DBs start changing
their footwork discipline to start playing the
ball and the ball path. more and the man less.
It's just it's really, really difficult for me
not to put May and at least the top, like six
right now, like the top 15 QBs by QBR deck prestigot,
who honor off depending on his injury rate, but
he's having a magnificent year this year. Jordan
love who goes unconscious for seven games a year,
but then the other like the other 10, you kind
of wonder if he should be a pro QB, then you've
got Drake May. We've got my homes I'm not writing
off my homes in the decline, but that deep ball
stuff that tight window stuff We just talked
about May has been absent from a home's game
for three years And this was the year was supposed
to come back because they've got all their weapons
and it just hasn't happened Then you've got Matt
Stafford who is going to play for as long as
Philip Rivers will continue to play in this league
Stafford's probably gonna play to like he's 57
then you've got Alan then Jackson Dart Sam Darnold
I'm not Taking, I'm not taking Drake May. I'm
not taking anyone other than Drake May. It may
be number like five or six, right? I just think
he's there. Like Stafford, it's the age thing.
And then with Jordan Love, I just, the consistency
is not there for me. I would easily put Drake
May right now above those two guys. Yeah, no,
the talent is there. You've, you've backed up
your, your argument with validity. I just. consistency
is what matters to me in these types of rankings
and conversations. Right. And next year, I think,
again, will be key as we revisit this conversation
because regression to the mean, it just happens
for everybody, right? Be it a one score game,
be a deep ball percentage, tight window throws.
We'll see. But I mean, dude, you watch it on
film and and the layers of throws that that only
Josh really had for a long time. Drake Mays got
for sure passes the eyeball test for sure. My
god, it's crazy. It's crazy. It's crazy. All
right Prediction sure to go wrong guys as we
wrap this thing up the bills for whatever reason
are favored by one and a half This line shrunk
to one and then went back to one and a half.
I just I don't understand this at all And then
the overrun around this game is 49 and a half
Brandon you first give us your score prediction
for this game Okay, so Like I said earlier, the
bills have not been great on the road. I think
the Patriots are going to, like you said, make
this a t -shirt and hat party early. So I'm going
to give this one to my team, the Patriots, with
a final score. I'm going to say 29 to 27. Brandon,
I didn't expect that. Yeah, that's a pretty good
pick. Oh, 29 -27. So you've got the Patriots
winning outright and you have the over on the
score, which I think is interesting too. I still
like that. This is going to be a close game.
And I think the NFL made a huge mistake not flexing
this into a prime time slot. I agree. Huge mistake.
And I think seeing you know, two of the best
quarterbacks in the NFL going at it that that
absolutely should be a prime time game. So and
I think potentially the dawn, the birthing of
a renewed rivalry between our two teams as we
watch the very entertaining. dissolution of the
Kansas City Chiefs and just relish in their pain
and their suffering. I think that is the table
that the three of us come together and share
a meal on, right? Is watching what is happening
to the Chiefs. It's chef's kiss. I will always
break bread over the Kansas City Chiefs being
terrible without a doubt. Yeah, I was just going
to say, if you guys want to jump on one of these
calls with a beverage the day that the Chiefs
are eliminated from playoffs contention, I'm
there 100%. It could be Sunday, right? If the
Bills win, the Jags win, Houston wins, and Kansas
City loses to the Chargers, then they're out.
They're out. And there, I think, I think the
charges and the chiefs are in the one o 'clock
window too. So, and then Arizona Houston's in
the one o 'clock window. When do the, when did
the Jags play? The Jags are in the one o 'clock
window too. It could all be happening at the
same time. So Brandon, this is the reason why
you shouldn't want the Patriots to clinch the
division yet, because if all of those things
happen. we'd be celebrating something I think
far greater than t -shirts and hats. And that
would be the downfall of the Kansas city chiefs.
Brandon, do you want to change your prediction?
You have that opportunity. No, no, no. It's just
what I feel in my heart. Nice. All right, cool.
All right, JJ, what about you? You know, I think
that what we saw, what we saw from the bills
in the in the Cincinnati game this past weekend
and granted Snow Globe game at home. Those are
components that always make for a better Josh
Allen performance and a better defensive performance
for the Bills. I think was a team that was a
little bit more. Consistent and aligned with
playing four quarters of football hard doing
their their 111th as it were, and they were they
were in that game with some injury issues there
and they look to be getting a little bit healthier
for this one. I actually see the Bills winning
on the road. They're 3 -3 on the road, as Brandon
mentioned. It hasn't been the best thing for
them. But in the games that they did win on the
road this season, they had 26, 30, and 40 points.
And so they can kind of turn it on in some of
those opportunities. I think that the Bills,
it's going to be close. It's going to be a cardiac
affair in the fourth quarter. And I like to see...
Josh Allen, when the chips are down, over Drake
May just because he's a much younger quarterback.
Bill's 34, Pat's 31, and I do think it hits the
over. I'm going to go, man, I really went back
and forth about this too. Vrabel is 6 -0 coming
out of the bye as a head coach, and he has had
some really good moments against Sean McDermott
when Vrabel was in Tennessee. I believe in Josh.
I don't necessarily believe in a whole lot of
other things on this Bill squad right now, but
I believe in Josh in December. And just on that
alone, non -analytical, purely emotional, purely
vibe driven thing. I'm going to say Bill's 24,
Patriot's 21. I am going to take the under. Division
games are weird. They're always weird. They're
rarely high scoring affairs unless it's a blowout
on one side. So I am going to take that. I think
both of these teams play with an edge. I think
the lack of daisical energy that the Bills came
out with in week five will not be a problem this
time around. But I think the Patriots are going
to be up and equal to meeting that. I could see
this going either way, but I'm going to lean
Bills just because, you know, I want to keep
the podcast and keep people happy. So there you
go. Any prop bets from you gentlemen? JJ will
start with you. Uh, yeah. So I'm going to say
over under half interception by Drake May. He's
been very good at protecting the ball, but he
does, he has been occasionally, you know, when
they come, they come in bunches. He's thrown
six, like he's thrown six this year. And again,
we talked about the one he threw with Cincinnati.
I. Is Benford gonna play Benford was in a boot
today at practice? It's that's not good. He had
some practice -related injury I'm gonna say over
and here's the reason why I mentioned those tight
window throws I was at that since it I was at
that Cincinnati game Spectacular game to be at
by the way, just absolutely incredible. So And
I got an up up close and personal look at one
Maxwell Hairston who was baptized by T Higgins
in this game. All right, Matt Max did not have
his best moments in this game. But what I saw
to him was a kid who is sticky and coverage just
needs to change up his footwork a little bit
and needs to play passing lanes against some
of these bigger wide receivers like a Matt Collins
like a K Sean booty and Listen, there were a
couple of picks that Mad Max could have had had
he chosen to play the ball and not the man. I
think Drake may loves to thread into tight windows.
And I think McDaniel's scheme gives me a lot
of quick answers to what the bills are going
to do. So it's going to come down to winning
your man -to -man mashups. And I'm confident
that Mad Max can, I'm going to say he, Drake
may throws one pick. I'm going to say it goes
to Mad Max who did not play in week five. And
I think we'll be a factor in this game. Brandon,
what about you over under that pack? Coming off
the bye against Buffalo, I think May is going
to be hyper fixated on protecting the ball. I
think if there's tight coverage, he's going to
look to Henderson for the check down plays. He
hasn't thrown a lot of interceptions this season,
so I'm going to take the under. Nice so zero.
It's a clean game out of me May had no touchdowns,
but no interceptions in that first game against
the Bills And it was somehow still the most impressive
zero touchdown game. I've ever seen in my life
in week five It was really incredible Brandon
what about you prop bets? Oh Okay, this is one.
I always like to do with you guys Josh Allen
over or under 20 I'm going to say 28 rushing
yards. Over. Over. He might get that in one run
in this game. Yeah, but don't the the Patriots
play a lot more zone and mixed coverage, which
means that their their defensive backs are looking
at the quarterback. I don't I don't know, Dan.
I mean, OK, but it is Josh Allen in December.
So they play they are playing so the Patriots
are playing man only at a 27 % clip right now
Which is just above the leave average. So they're
playing way more zone for sure I will say the
way that teams have been and the way that the
Patriots limited Josh's Josh's rushing lanes
in that first game is to have like a linebacker
spy But Spillane appears on the injury report.
And again, I've already told you how I feel about
his sideline to sideline speed. I I think 30
yards would be a very attainable goal for Josh
in this particular game. And the designed run
game, which never features in October and November,
is going to feature in this game, I would imagine.
So on the season, sorry, he has five games with
30 or less, so far. So I'm I'm gonna stay I'm
sticking with under because I think that the
the focus for the bills is going to be Getting
the ball out of his hands to other players More
than kind of the I don't know if we see a lot
of design runs by Josh it must it's short yardage
tush push stuff Yeah, I'm feeling pretty confident
about my over I'll text you both in them with
the most in the most obnoxious way should I be
correct about that? Perfect. Sorry. Here's here's
my prop bet And it starts with a fun stat. Did
you know the Buffalo Bills have scored over 61
points in their last two games? And in that stretch,
wide receivers have accounted for only 11 catches
between those two games and 102 yards. Yeah,
I mean, wide receivers are purely optional in
this offense. It really just are there's just
extensions of the offensive line in this absurd
scheme this ridiculous scheme All right, but
here's what I'm gonna do wide receiver catches
in this game over under five and a half Hmm all
all the wide receivers all of them All the wide
receivers in the past two games have only caught
the ball 11 times such a low bar Yeah, I have
to take but they've only caught the ball 11 times
in two games I have to take the over on that.
That's a sucker's bet. I'm going under. Joe Brady
hates wide receivers. That's so funny. Brandon
over. I'm taking the over beat just because that's
such a tiny number. And on top of that, I can
see, and here's why you're wrong there. Okay.
Because Keon Coleman is going to have a good
game. No, he's going to. No, but no, absolutely
not. We know what I think about Keon Coleman.
I know I'm just baiting you. He's the window
dressing of all window dressings. He just looks
the part. He can't do the part. No, but I can
see Khalil Shakir getting a lot more scrubby,
like middle of the field or swing, you know,
swing screens in this game, even though we thought
that they'd abolished it last game. I can see.
Yeah, I can see Khalil Shaqir getting more of
those, even though I have seen Ty Johnson, or
not Ty Johnson. Yeah, Ty Johnson has been getting
those whips a lot more, which I think is a good
change. Just another thing to a running back.
But yeah, no, I think it's over five catches
total across, because I think that the Patriots
are gonna try to focus on shutting down tight
ends and running backs. Here and here's the thing
with the Patriots I think that is a real demonstrable
weakness that I don't know they've got a schematic
answer for because for them the safety personnel
is what it is the linebacker personnel is what
it is right like the spine of that defense in
the middle of that field is absolutely open even
Marcus Jones who is Wildly successful slot corner.
He's like five eight I mean you're telling me
you don't like Dawson Knox or Dalton Kincaid
on that guy it but but that is the So this is
the, I'm not just talking crazy. I'm not just
throwing Brady shade out there. Like the leader
in targets, the last time these guys played was
Dalton Kincaid and everyone should argue that
he should have gotten more. What we saw happen
against the Bengals where the Bills went play
action on 57 % of Josh's drop backs and they
targeted tight ends on 96 % of those. That is
the passing offense. That Joe Brady has been
waiting to run and to great effect. That's why
he's been building up 13 personnel, these 12
personnel packages so that when Kincaid got healthy,
he could roll out Knox and Kincaid and some of
those patterns and to a lesser extent, Jackson
Hawes. And I don't think it's a coincidence that
we've seen Ty Johnson and James Cook both more
active in the past game too. I think the pecking
order for targets is going to be Kincaid, Knox,
Cook, Ty Johnson. Then Kahlil Shakir and Kahlil
Shakir is not getting five catches in this game.
I can't remember the last time he had a five
catch game So that's that's it and that's also
it just happens to be the way that you can best
attack this particular defensive unit as well
because I don't want to go up against Davis or
Ergon Zala's with any of our wide receivers to
you No, especially not with Grape Davis or Keon
Coleman not able to attack the ball when it's
in the air, right? Like they both just watch
as people pick it off. My God, it's terrible.
So yeah. So I get where you're both at, but I'm
taking the under. I'm taking the under. Yeah,
absolutely. All right. That was fun. That was
fun. Mean really good stuff really good stuff
there particularly at the end way to bring it
home guys. All right, Brandon Thank you for joining
us. We always appreciate you having you on the
pod. Thanks Yeah, JJ. Nice to welcome you back
as well. It's good to be doing this again with
you, sir For all of you listening at home like
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