Welcome back to the Buffalo Bread Podcast. JJ
and Dan here to recap the matchup. The Bills
absolutely dominated the Carolina Panthers in
a rushing attack splendor down in Carolina and
now are facing the much -hated on a hot streak
heater chiefs this Sunday in Buffalo, 425 p .m.
Dan, where's the anxiety level at right now?
The anxiety level out of a 10 JJ is probably
at like a seven. Listen, this one feels weird
for a couple of reasons. One, the bills are coming
off of a blowout win, which you just very eloquently
stated. And yet it still feels like there are
a lot of looming questions about this defense,
i .e. Is this new look Bill's defense that we
saw finally be able to roll out after the bye
week? Is it going to be suitable enough to stand
up against a revamped, revitalized Kansas City
attack? And I think a lot of Bill's mafia, myself
included, have our doubts. Two. Neither of these
teams are like these teams are meeting at a time
where they're both vying for Divisional placement
not the high -level conference placement that
we're used to seeing them compete for right now
neither team is sitting in first and their respective
divisions and they are looking up at a couple
of young upstart teams respectively and Really?
This has become a must -win game for both teams
if they want to stay alive divisionally forget
for conference placement and all that type of
stuff. So it different stakes feels a little
bit weird as a result of that. But JJ nonetheless,
it's Bill's football on a Sunday, I'm ready to
talk it, I'm ready to watch it and ready to love
it. Awesome. Love that. Now let's start where
we left off last time with our prediction sure
to go wrong in this Carolina Panthers game. So
right on everything. We hit a lot of things.
So we were way off. Way off. It was terrible.
Way off on our score predictions. We both thought
that the Panthers would score 21 points and the
Bills wouldn't get past 30. Of course, the final
score was 40 to nine, which hit the over. I think
we both took the under. Yeah. And we both took
the over, but we took the over in a competitive
game with a one score win. So I thought for sure
I took the under. Oh, yeah. OK. You did. You
did take the under by one point. Yep. You had
a 45 as your total. So I would took the over
by two points. But neither of us thought it was
going to be over by three points, 40 to nine.
Kind of blowout with Josh Allen, James Cook and
other starters wearing baseball caps in the fourth
quarter with 12 minutes to go. And then Hoyt
over under half sack. I had hit the over. How
wrong was I about that one? I mean, I just. Oh,
well, yeah, we can start there. Let's start with
the defense because our other prediction was
was Maxwell Hairston over under 25 percent snaps.
He did 44 percent of the snaps. So we both took
the under and we're both wrong. We thought he
would be a healthy scratch. We did. Yeah. Like
I was so pleasantly surprised with the Buffalo
Bills decision to play him. But yeah, man, let's
start with the defensive side of the ball because
that was the that has been the long standing
issue for this Buffalo Bills team this season.
Offensive play calling aside, which we have all
gone over. It's been the defense has been the
big question. So, JJ, let's start there. Why
don't you run through some of your highlights?
Tell us what you saw. Tell us what you liked
and then what you think might actually be transferable
to this KC game. Well, I think that on defense,
Michael Hoyt does, he sets the defense in a completely
different gear. He's like a twice as energetic
version of Joey Bosa when it comes to providing
juice to the defense. And he provided it to two
levels, both I think the linebacker play and
the frontline defensive line play looked. better
every snap he was in there. And they did move
him around. He had his hand in the dirt as an
edge rusher. He was inside as a defensive tackle
for a number of snaps. And he just looked pretty
dominant. I mean, for somebody who's 260 pounds,
he was able to bull rush 300 plus pound guards
that are, and as we talked about in the preview,
the Panthers aren't, they're not a slouch of
an offensive line. They're a decent offensive
line. They came into that game as one of the
hottest rushing offenses in the league. The bill
shut down the rushing. rushing attack in a lot
of ways. And Hoyt was a big part of that. Sealing
the edge. He looked awesome. I mean, he was causing
he had a strip sack. He was causing problems
all day long, almost no matter where they lined
him up. And I think that his play amplified and
energized a lot of the other frontline defenders
play in a way that it helped keep the linebackers
clean. And the linebackers in this one, Dan,
were Shaq Thompson and Dorian Williams. So neither
of the two starting, you know, pre -season if
we would have said, hey, LB's three and four
are going to play most of the snaps for the Bills
in a game, we would have been a little bit worried.
I would have been worried, right? Because we
saw that last year in the Bills two game losing
streak when we saw a lot of absence in the linebacking
crew. And Dorian Williams and at that time Bale
and Specter were getting starts. Shaq Thompson
is a revelation. We've already talked about him.
He is the best linebacker on this team. He deserves
to continue to start over anybody in that middle.
Oh, 100%. And I mean, this is now an open question,
too, as we get into the chief's chat and the
chief's talk. Terrell Bernard, Matt Milano have
both been full participants. But based on what
we saw in that Carolina game and what we saw
at the tail end of that Atlanta game, too, there
is a case for mixing and matching your personnel
at linebacker situationally. Shaq Thompson brings
that veteran savvy that we talked about, but
Dorian Williams man just looks so much more comfortable
playing next to him. And now also with the understanding
that McDermott is doing a lot of the play calling
now too. Um, which we can get into as we get
into the chiefs preview, uh, more formally, uh,
it just felt like Williams was always in a better
position. He was always in the right position.
Same thing with these safeties too. And the safety
rotation with Poyer coming in on more obvious
running downs, the athleticism of Hancock coming
in on more, um, more passing friendly downs.
I mean, dude, just when you talk about Hoyt being
out there. Maxwell, Harrison, Jordan Hancock,
then Dorian Williams being in the right position,
Cole Bishop, finding his run fits in the box
as well, just to see those five guys out there
at the same time in unison on a lot of these
run plays and a lot of these run fits, just to
see that level of athleticism on the field and
level of speed is something we've been sorely
missing from this bill's defense all year. But
to your point, it started with the two guys right
in the middle of the spine. Williams finding
his fits and his comfort zone. Shaq Thompson
doing what he needed to do as the veteran leader
there. It really started with those two guys
as it typically emanates out of in a McDermott
defense. To me, JJ, I do think there's got to
be some question as to whether or not Bernard
or Milano should be the starters moving forward.
Well, and I think in a three linebacker set,
I think Shaq Thompson, Dorian Williams and Bernard
should be on the field. And I think that in certain
situations, if it's long and late, you may take
Shaq Thompson, well, or you may take Dorian Williams
off the field and put Shaq Thompson, Terrell
Bernard and Matt Milano in for the best three
coverage players that you have at Linebacker.
If you don't, if for some reason you don't trust
Taron Johnson in the slot, right? Like if you're
going to be in base personnel in a long and late
down, which they haven't been, they've been leaning
more towards dime looks and bringing in extra
DBs. But really, that's the only time I could
see Dorian Williams sitting down. Like any other
time he should be on the field, I think. And
especially because of, as you mentioned, the
change in play calling. And then the big problem
with the Buffalo Bills defensive line, especially
with these injuries, is they have less and less
big body stuffer types and more and more penetration
style defensive tackles, which is the absolute
kryptonite to Terrell Bernard's style of play.
He is small, undersized. fast and athletic, but
he cannot be taught. You know, if a guard gets
on him, he's toast. There's nothing happened
in that play. Right. If a guard or a center,
any type of interior offensive lineman climbs
to the second level and meets Bernard, he cannot
find his fit. He cannot get off of a block against
a 320 pound offensive lineman. You just can't.
It's not what his game is suited for. Absolutely.
Yeah. And I think that, you know, you made some
observations via text during the game that Hairston
had recovery speed. He was fearless. He was fearless
of playing the jam because he knew that if somebody
ended up breaking out against him, he could catch
up. He got he was caught up in a scrape pick
play and close the distance. And it was a. errant
ball errant throw but I think even if the ball
would have made it there he would have had a
chance to break up the pass even though he was
two or three yards behind at one point in the
play his catch -up speed is amazing he's sticky
in coverage I'm so excited to see him I mean
44 percent of the snaps in the first week he's
not even on the injury report is limited in any
way this week so hopefully the rook has a nice
healthy season from here on out and just every
week we get to see more and more of him And let's,
and let's give our flowers to this Bill's coaching
staff. Cause I think you and I were both of the
mindset that absolutely not. They're going to
Cole Bishop this kid. They're going to bring
him back so slow to the point it might be detrimental
to his development. No, they rolled him right
back out there. They wanted him to get some real
life game reps. And, and most importantly to
me, JJ, and we've talked about this ad nauseam,
how these, how these coaches tend to feel like
they are scheme over skill. A lot of times they
put. Maxwell Harrison in a position where his
skill set would immediately find him some early
confidence and early success. They didn't ask
him to play a lot of this match zone nonsense
that they've been rolling out there. He was out
there almost exclusively for man reps, and he
was given an assignment to stick to, and he was
able to do it successfully on almost every turn.
He wasn't targeted once officially in the box
score. Yeah, and his other piece that he came
up and contributed... quite a lot in run fits,
even if it wasn't making the tack. He made that
one incredible solo tackle on the edge. Jimmy
Horn Jr. Yeah. But then he also was able to affect
the run game in the way that you want a cornerback
to affect it. String it out, make the runner
stop his feet, slow his feet, get your help there
to help you take him down and not have a cutback
lane. He did everything we want him to do. And
what's surprising is you mentioned his man reps
being his most successful. The thing that's most
exciting about that to me is his college tape
was largely him in zone. Yep. And they essentially
looked at that tape, saw the skill set and said,
we can put him man up on an NFL caliber receiver
and we think he'll be able to hang. And with
just a one game, half the game reps sample size
against some pretty solid, you know, receivers,
he did a nice job. A hundred percent. Definitely
a bright spot. First, first NFL, you know, start.
to have that level of success. Also tells me
a little bit about, we always dog on this coaching
staff for like slow playing it with rookies.
I think they play the rookie as fast as their
skills let them. You know what I mean? Like Terrell
Bernard, slow play. Cole Bishop, slow play. Josh
Allen, they slow played it. Players that we've
seen develop over time, they've tried to keep
out of the lineup as long as they could. But
Tredavious was in right away. Day one starter.
Tremaine Edmonds, too. Tremaine Edmonds, Christian
Benford, right? Like these players, if the player
brings it, I think the coaching staff is willing
to put them in. So they may be cautious with
how much they're going to put on somebody's plate
if they don't believe they're ready. But when
they're ready, they send them. Yeah, without
a doubt. And it was great to see them do with
Harrison because you, me, all of Bill's Mafia,
all of Buffalo Bill's media, no one thought Harrison
was going to play in this game. And it also says
something to all those people who are like, oh
no, here's Maxwell Hairston, another speedy cornerback
for the Bills to ruin, right? No, Kyriellum was
the problem, everybody. He couldn't get on the
field because he wasn't good. Yep. Yep. And it
is time for us to own that, right? We're those
guys that you're talking about. So yeah, man,
defensive side of the ball, very impressive.
We would be remiss, though, if we didn't talk
about one of the big negative of the day, which
is the loss of that Oliver, right? JJ, it is
hard to quantify because Oliver, it seems, since
signing that extension has gotten progressively
better year after year after year into this contract.
He was on pace this season and granted a small
sample to have his best most eruptive year as
a Buffalo Bill, and it is tragically cut short
due to a torn bicep. Oliver is out on Instagram.
He is posting that he's going to be back. He's
going to be back in time for the playoffs and
time to play for it all, as he says, with a little
emoji of a ring. Love that. Love that for us,
but we love that. We love the Hopium hit on that
one. But the reality is the Buffalo Bill's also
with TJ Sanders currently out too. Despite the
reinforcement of Larry Ogunjobi coming back,
they find themselves short in the defensive tackle
rotation. Jordan Phillips elevated from the practice
squad, signed to the 53 -man roster, but it begs
the question, JJ, are the Bills going to go turn
their focus at the trade deadline to a free agent
acquisition or a trade target like a Kaleus Campbell?
We always have these conversations and my answer
is always super lame because I'm like, if the
price is right, you know, like that's the reality.
Like that's, that's just it is they're going
to, you know, I trust in this regard, I trust
Brandon being to look at the market, see what's
available. And if there's something that he thinks
he can upgrade for a player on a rental contract,
who's going to be better than, than the draft
position of that pick that they're going to sacrifice.
I think they make a move. I'm worried that they
might focus on getting a wide receiver like the
MRI Cooper deal. Um, more because I don't think
that Amari ever was worth a third rounder and
they might get taken. Um, Steve Smith, senior,
uh, formerly of the Carolina Panthers said on
his podcast or YouTube channel in which he was,
uh, it was his YouTube special 20 minutes on
why Keon Coleman is a bust in the NFL with all
of his stat breakdowns and film watching, um,
that he very lazily does, and he said, but I
love this. I'm sharing the Steve Smith senior
thing because it's worthwhile. He said that the
Buffalo Bills pick up wide receivers like somebody
going to the grocery store hungry. They make
poor choices because they want it so bad. They're
not thinking of the bigger plan, the better picture,
what's worth it, what's, you know, what their
budget is. They're going to the store hungry.
And that I think is a great way to summarize
the MRE Cooper trade. It's a great way to summarize
almost anything that they end up doing if they
do anything before Tuesday at the trade deadline
for our wide receiver this year. I agree. And
I think, you know, going back to the ad Oliver
piece, we want them to avoid that on the defensive
tackle area as well, because this is Like the
wide receiver room, another area where they've
already sunk a ton of draft capital, a lot of
resources into it. I think ultimately the question
of do you change your sites to a defensive tackle
target as much as I would love to, and I'm going
to say his name again. Um, go pick up class Campbell.
Cause I think the contract is manageable at this
point in the season. It's a one year rental and
it's not going to cost you a lot from Arizona.
And despite the age, he is endlessly almost scientifically
and possibly productive at that position still,
but same thing. I think for me, a lot of this
depends on what is the TJ Sanders prognosis,
because if you're going to get him back at some
point, then I think you roll with roll with who
got you here and you give Sanders a chance to
really step up and show out in the absence of
Ed Oliver. Well, and I think, too, the fact that
Ed Oliver was injured and one day later was having
surgery tells me that the. Having, you know,
sort of a sports injury repair surgery myself,
it was kind of amazing just a couple of two,
three days after my surgery, what my surgeon
was able to tell me about my recovery window
and timeline, right? Like, because they see it
all, right? They're in there literally on the
ligaments, on the joints, on the muscle, the
tendons, everything. They see everything inside.
So as they close you up, they're like, OK, I've
seen this one before, and I'm sure that Ed Oliver
is going to like the best bicep repair person
in the universe. that money can buy and then
that doctor's gonna be able to come out and say,
all right, this is what the damn, when I was
in there literally looking at how you're put
together, this is what I saw and this is what
I anticipate it looks like. So that was a good
sign that they went so fast for the surgical
option because it does indicate to me that maybe
the window is open for him to return during playoffs.
That would be great. I mean, that would be great
for us for sure. All right, JJ, let's switch
quickly to the offensive side of the ball where
the domination continued for the Buffalo Bills
against Carolina in the form of the run game.
I mean, a lot of the discourse after the game
was about how the passing offense still looks
off. And so a lot of the bi -week discourse about
training for a wide receiver continued, but man.
I mean, Joe Brady, Joe Brady can scheme a run
game. The Reggie, the Reggie Gilliam Gilliam
experience, right? The way he was used to seal
edges, Jackson Hawes in motion. That man is terrifying
when he gets ahead of steam. And then Conor McGovern,
to me, played his best individual game of the
season. His ability, again, against a really
good defensive interior and a really well coached
defense. His ability to find holes and climb
to the second level to keep James Cook clean.
from that linebacker unit. Absolutely great stuff.
Obviously well practiced, obviously well coached,
but man, the movement of that run scheme, it
was almost like poetry in motion. Yeah, I mean,
A'Shawn Robinson, you know, DJ Wanham, there's
some guys on that defensive line. Derrick Brown
was basically ineffective. He was like the best
player on that defensive line. And he was, he
was, he had a half, like a tat one assist of
assisted tackle. They completely erased him because
they basically, I mean, yes, Conor McGovern was
climbing to the second level, but he's climbing
to the second level because he didn't have a
very, he didn't have a duo blocking assignment
in the center of the line. Everything was sweeping
out to the edges. And so that's easy to seal
when you're not trying to clear the clutter of
the middle of the field. Uh, and they, yeah,
they just hit that sweep over and over. And then
just when the Carolina Panthers started overloading
to the sweep, they came back and hit the, um,
inside zone. That was the blue wide open for
46 or whatever it is. 64 yards, something like
that. Yeah. Um, yeah, it's, it's, this is what,
I mean, anybody who watches football casually
that. All that tape, the entire Carolina Panthers
game is like a clinic on how you want to design
a run scheme against an opponent's weaknesses
and then build off of it so that they never get
comfortable. They never are able to anticipate
your next move. The problem is, this is the problem,
is that the Bills can do this. as long as they
don't have the procedural errors, pre -snap penalties,
holding, the stuff that puts them in a position
where it's not the smartest choice to run, second
and 20, third and 17, right? Like when they can
stay in phase and ahead of the sticks by getting
at least four yards per play, they could do this.
They can do this all day. That line is so built
for this. They're great pass protectors too,
as we know from you know, Josh is historically
low sex last year, but they are exceptional run
blockers, especially when you add in, as you
mentioned, Reggie Gilliam, Jackson Hawes, even
Keon Coleman had some good blocking steps. But
he was a terrible receiver in this game. It just
sucks. Again, I'm not ready to be out on camera
yet. And I don't want to skew too negative because
this was overall a really good offensive performance.
40 to 9. I don't want to be somebody who complains.
It's like don't look a gift horse in the mouth,
right? Like this is a good win. They needed it.
And this is how they have been telegraphing to
Bill's Mafia. how they are going to beat a team
like Kansas City, who they've been aiming to
beat for forever. They are going to have the
opportunity on Sunday, like they have in their
previous seven matchups with Kansas City to dominate
the ball at the line of scrimmage. Kansas City
just cannot stop the run and has not been effective
against the run for quite a few years. And what
we saw on display here, it wasn't just the big.
Heavy personnel that were we're so seeing Brady
roll out there This is their most effective game
running the ball out of 11 as well and just a
just a couple of wrinkles here and there With
regard to the James Cook runs out of the 11 personnel
shotgun looks I mean it It looked seamless and
it looked fluid, no matter what personnel package
they are running out. And that's eventually the
point that you want to get to with the scheme
is when you do need to pass the ball, you don't
want it to be as predictable percentage -wise
as it had been. And as we recapped in the pregame
leading up to this game, where whenever they're
in 11 and they're in shotgun, 80 % of the time
they're passing the ball. Whenever they're under
center and they're in 12, 13, or 22, they're
76 % of the time they're running the ball. They
changed up and they messed around with a lot
of it. Now, the passing reps were not effective
really until the second half. I think you can
debate about whether some of that was on personnel,
some of that was more on Josh, right? And we
can get into that if you want to. I think Josh
is just not seeing things really clearly at this
particular point because there were guys open.
But at the end of the day, when you're on the
ball that effectively, even just the threat of
being able to be multi -layered. out of all of
your personnel sets is going to be enough to
keep even the best coach defense on their heels,
which is where the Bills had the Panthers all
that. Yeah, no, absolutely. And I think that
that's that's the kind of thing that the chiefs
in Spagnolo will have an answer for this rushing
attack. They'll have a way to personalize. Oh,
I don't know about that. No, yeah. Let's continue.
Let me let me finish. They'll they'll have an
answer for that. I don't think that the Bills
can brute force their way. through this game.
I don't believe that because I believe that the
I believe here's here's what I believe. I believe
the Chiefs will stuff the box with nine players
and cover three receivers with two safeties only.
Like that is that is the level of commitment
they will put because of how poorly Josh has
looked. We might find Bill's Mafia. We might
finally see a deep touchdown in this game because
how because of how much attention the Chiefs
will pay to James Cook and shutting it down.
They want to get the bills off their script as
fast and as hard as possible. So I see safety
and cornerbacks run specific blitzes coming at
such a high level that it's that it's going to
change the math in the box, because that's what
Spagnolo does. He basically says, OK, what's
the best thing you can do? I'm going to erase
it and make you play left handed. I see that
as the focus. And this that means it's going
to be ripe play action. hits over the top, the
deep ball should be there if that's how they
choose to play the Bills. And I am not confident
that the Bills will be able to hit it. I agree
with you that play action is going to be an opportunity
there, right? I mean, let's be real with this
linebacking core with Kansas City and the issues
they're having along the defensive line. Carl
Loftus is having an okay year. right? But he's
never been a great run stopper. Chris Jones is
at the point in his career where he's flipping
a switch and deciding when he wants to own a
rep and then putting it putting himself in reserve
for when he doesn't want to. So he hasn't been
as consistently dominant. I mean, there's an
argument to be made that their two best tacklers
in the run game are their DBs and McDuffie and
Watson, which to me, leaves a lot of inside zone
stuff available to run against that interior
defensive line, which has had a ton of issues
this season. Like this is a team, JJ, that when
you look at their splits, when teams run outside
the tackles versus inside the tackles, running
inside the tackles, success rate and EPA per
play for teams attacking Kansas City in that
way, it almost doubles. What you need to me to
do in order to affect some of those personnel
box heavy decisions, is add in the play action
because the Kansas City Chiefs, small sample
size, not a lot of teams run play action against
them, have not been good at defending play action
this season though. And if you can get Tranquil
and you can get Chanal to do what you are not
willing to do with guys like Spillane, guys like
Kayden Ellis on Atlanta, if you can force them
to freeze a little bit and have to play backwards
as opposed to always running downhill on the
run game, I think there's a lot of opportunity
to be had for the Buffalo Bills against this
Kansas City Chiefs defense. I really, really
do. I think this is going to be, if the Bills
play it right, the most boring, suffocating ball
control, take the air out of it, offensive game
plan we have seen from this unit. But I agree
with you. I think play action has to factor in
to take to take the linebackers out of some of
those easy run downhill situations where spags
is loading up the box. Yeah, no, absolutely.
And that's that's the point I was trying to make
is that whatever the bills think that they can
do, the chiefs will absolutely focus their entire
effort on erasing that. that opportunity. So
and if they don't have a counterpunch, so this
is a big Joe Brady and Josh Allen question, if
they don't have a counterpunch, if they don't
have a quick answer to the exotic CB blitzes
or the crazy edge stunts that Spagnolo is going
to send, they're going to get cooked. And it's
a type of game, as we know with every Kansas
City matchup, where if the Bills get field goals
instead of touchdowns, pretty quickly it starts
to get out of hand. their playbook is reduced
down to trying to hit bigger things that Kansas
City then just is going to eat them up. So the
thing I'm most intimidated by with this game
is that we have not seen the Bills, except for
one quarter against the Ravens, be able to play
in any kind of game and win, right? Like we haven't
seen the Bills do the precision game. They lost
a precision game because the Patriots were more
precise with their game. They lost a sloppy game
because the Falcons were more, were taking advantage
of mistakes more often, right? Like that's the
problem I have is that the, sure, the Chiefs
have lost more games. They've had, they've also
had some errors. Mahomes was throwing a lot of
interceptions early in the season, but the Chiefs
look like they've pulled it all together a little
bit more than the Bills have. It looks for the
Bills that their defense has shown great improvements
in one week. Their offense. run game looks fantastic,
but it's looked pretty good all year if they
stick to it. It's just the big question mark
for me is what happens if the Bills have to counterpunch?
Because I know the Chiefs can. Yeah, no. And
I think and listen. I don't want to rush to prediction
share to go wrong. I think the Bills offense
has a better than punchers chance against this
Chiefs defense. I just think this Chiefs defense
is not at all what it used to be, right? I mean,
even if you want to talk about the pure pass
rush game, their four man pass rush success rate
is bottom third in the league at this point.
They are a team that is. failing to get pressure
on the opposing QB unless they commit to the
blitz. And again, I think there's a lot of opportunities.
If Brady and Alan play it smart, there's a lot
of opportunities to take advantage of that aggressiveness.
But again, use some of this. I feel like Brady
has just been setting us up all season for this
moment, using some of these personnel packages
where you've been so statistically predictable
to finally roll out those wrinkles that we've
been expecting. If play action. does not factor
into this game though, I will really begin to
question how good Brady is at his job. Because
there's like, there is no reason why you should
not be running the ball with James Cook mercilessly
up the gut and then sucking in Chanal and sucking
in Tranquil on play action. There's absolutely
no reason why the middle of the field should
not be wide open for Kieran Kincaid for large
stretches of this game. There's also no reason,
like if I don't see a play where Josh Allen quickly
takes a snap, turns to his right or left for
the tunnel screen, but it's just a fake, and
then launches something, a seam shot over the
middle. I don't know what to tell you. I think
Joe Brady sucks, right? Like, because the bills
have with those stupid, you know, I think they're
stupid unless Shakira breaks one for 80 yards
and gets a touchdown, right? Like, because so
many times I think it's really, it's a frustrating
play for me because I get it. I understand the
purpose. The wide receiver needs to make one
person miss. The tight end needs to make one
person miss and it's an eight to 10 yard gain.
And so it seems it's easy profits, right? I understand
the play design, but If a team plans for it and
the Kansas City Chiefs are that kind of team,
when they do a lot of film study, they're very
well coached. If they see that thing developing,
they put overload to that side. If they blow
it up for a two or three yard loss, fumble something.
That is a perfect opportunity though to plan
their aggressiveness, have somebody vacate space
and just go right over the top. And that's what
I'm going to be looking for is those tendency
breakers. Because if we continue to see the same
play script and play design over and over, if
we have another end around that somebody fumbles,
right? Oh, I think they've launched that into
the sun. Good. No, I cannot see them running
the end around to Dawson Knox again. I just can't
see it happening. Yeah. No, or Elijah Moore.
Each one of them fumbled once. Yeah, no, it's
so that's where I'm at with this is like there's
a lot of there's. ripe opportunities just as
you laid out. And I'm not saying that I think
that the Kansas City Chiefs are an absolutely
flawless defense, because I know they're not.
They have warts. But I do think that they're
one of the best coach defenses. They're one of
the best teams in the league working with what
they have to shut down somebody's best plays
and players. They are. I think and I think this
is the only place we depart because we both agree
that it's a well -coached unit. I think I have
more faith in what we have seen as the standard
play script for the Buffalo Bills, particularly
in the run game than you have. I don't think,
regardless of coaching, that the Kansas City
Chiefs have the personnel at the point of attack
in the trenches or at the second level to dramatically
affect the Buffalo Bills run game. I mean, dude,
we saw it last year in the playoffs. The Bills...
ran at will against Kansas City. The reason why
we ultimately had to go away from James Cook
at certain points was because the game script,
because of our defensive ineffectiveness, forced
us to take an offensive posture that was not
playing to our strengths in that game. Same thing
in the 2024 playoff game, the divisional round
in Buffalo, right? We were moving that that chiefs
offensive line at will, particularly in the third
quarter. I mean, Brady basically was salting
that game away as early as as early as nine minutes
to go in the third, right? But again, game script
flip because our defense could not do what it
needed to do against Patrick Mahomes. And I think
that's a good opportunity to flip it. And let's
talk about this new look bills defense against
this new look, this new look, Kansas city chiefs
offense, um, the Kansas city chiefs, it always
feels like we're chasing them, right? When it
comes to roster build, particularly on offense.
They trade away Tyree kill, they win a couple
of Super Bowls and they do it with a lineup of
like B type wide receiver role players. They
maximize that as much as they can until the rest
of the league catches up. And then this year
they're like, you know what, we just need to
have really speedy, really effective wide receivers
that can attack at every level of the field.
It feels like the Buffalo Bills are coming around
to that realization, right? So like the way I
look at this is I'm looking at like it's the
ghost of Christmas past, the Chiefs are going
to be looking at an offensive mirror against
what they tried to be the past couple of years
when they see the Bills run out there. And the
Bills and Brandon Bean are hopefully looking
at the Ghost of Christmas future and be like,
you know what, this is ultimately what we need
to get back to. Because I think this Kansas City
Chiefs offensive unit, I do not think the Buffalo
Bills will have a lot of answers for it. I just
don't. I just don't. Yeah. And to your point
of the New Look Buffalo Bills defense, I think
that the The biggest question I have is can the
Bills front four get pressure on Mahomes in a
contain rush sort of way? Not letting him leak
out to the left or right because he's killing
teams week over week. He's looked like Patrick
Mahomes from two or three years ago in which
no single player snap is over and he will make
you pay. if you don't get him on the ground.
And that was the biggest complaint we've had
about Bill's matchups with Patrick Mahomes in
the past is they don't get him on the ground.
If they can affect him, hit him and get him on
the ground in this game, that's going to be that
I think that's going to be the whole difference.
That's the answer I can tell. I'm going to prognosticate
that if you look in the box score after this
game and the Bills have more than three sacks
on Patrick Mahomes, they've won the game. And
if they have less than three, they've probably
lost it. You know, it's it's I'm I'm I want to
be with you on that one. I really do. I just,
uh, he's such a hard QB to sack. You know what
I mean? And it feels like even when we do ultimately
sack him, it feels like it doesn't ultimately
make that much of a difference. I mean, he is
the time to pressure for Mahomes this season.
He is like scarily close to the top of the league.
Like this offensive line, especially with, uh,
their rookie, what's his name? Watts, uh, Jay.
I know they got Jalen Moore who is the backup
the rookie Simmons is it Simmons that I'm thinking
about Left tackle left tackle Jalen Moore. No,
no, that's that's their backup who's starting
now, right? Yeah. Yep I think they got the the
Simmons kid who's been out on some some undisclosed
person coming back not this week Okay, so as
a result of that though, Mahomes has been harassed
and flushed from the pocket him and Josh are
battling for fourth and fifth respectively when
it comes to scramble rates for QBs, right? I
mean, his time to pressure I think is like seventh
quickest in the league, which is uncharacteristic
for a Kansas City Chiefs offense, but we have
seen his willingness and his gameness to take
off and run. And this is what concerns me. I
actually think the Bills are going to get pressure
on him in this game. Our four -man pressure rate
this season, JJ, as far as success rate and EPA
per play, both top quarter in the league this
season. Like the four -man pass rush for the
Bills has actually been working, and we have
seen it work. It just hasn't worked in a complementary
or tandem way with our coverage. Which brings
me to like ultimately why I think we are going
to get pressure and it's not going to matter
is because we're probably going to have to find
ourselves playing a lot of man in this game,
which means our second level defenders and are
going to have their backs turned to Mahomes.
If if we do not maintain contain discipline,
as you said, I think Mahomes is going to find
some really easy scrambles. He's done it every
team he's faced this season with a lot of success.
I actually think this is a game where Mahomes
could be pushing 100 yards rushing. Okay. That's
an interesting take. I think that, you know,
what you say absolutely lines up. And I do know
that the Buffalo Bills have employed a spy on
Mahomes in the past that has not been effective.
Who? I mean, who are they gonna hire? They used
to, they have in the past spied him when he was
healthy with Terrell Bernard or Matt Milano.
And I, each one of them, not nearly as bad as
Tremaine Edmonds, but... in the neighborhood
of Asbad, of being manipulated by Mahome's eyes
and moving off as a spy and trying to squeeze
a route that he ended up just tucking the ball
down and running seven, six yards, whatever he
needed to get to the sideline. I think, but I
still, I stand by the fact that I know he's being
pressured. I know that it's Josh Simmons out
of Ohio State the first round and they picked
it 32nd. That kid's good when he comes back.
That kid's good, yeah. So if he's out for this
game, Isaiah Pacheco's out for this game. you
know, it's going to be interesting. But to your
point, I think that the biggest disadvantage
that the Bills have on defense is that they are
going against Rashid Rice, Xavier Worthy and
Hollywood Brown. Three absolute speedsters and
then a resurgent Travis Kelsey who doesn't look,
you know, he looks like he'd been working out
with Taylor Swift because he is slender and he
is fast again. which shouldn't be happening in
his like, what is it, 12th season? So yeah, he's
looked like he's come back around to previous
versions of himself, at least in glimmers. And
that means that I'm absolutely certain there's
gonna be at least two or three third down situations
where Buffalo Bill's fans are throwing their
empty LeBat blue cans at their TV screens because
Travis Kelsey is open with a five yard cushion
all the way around him in some empty zone. Exactly
past the sticks where he needs to be. Yeah, like
he usually is. And I think what's more too, and
listen, the defensive stand against Carolina
was so impressive, especially with so many new
parts being integrated into the scheme. But this
is still a Buffalo Bills defense that when they
face play action and when they face misdirection
and motion, they bite so hard. They bite so hard.
Carolina... Doesn't didn't do a lot of that.
I think Kansas City will and it's been so interesting
to watch my home's my home's drop back metrics.
There are some games where read will scheme in.
Even if the run game isn't working, read will
simply scheme in. 14 or 15 solid opportunities
for play action shots down the field. I think
in that Jacksonville Jaguars game, Mahomes was
like 11 for 12 on play action, right? One of
his better games of the season. Then you look
at a game like they just played last Monday night
against Washington, Mahomes only goes four, like
three for four on play action opportunities,
right? Reid just has these levers and these creative
schemes that he can pull to where you really
don't know, there is no tendency. Right. There
is no pattern with Reid. He is going to see what
you're bad at. And he is going and him and his
his Borg like QB, they're going to assimilate
to whatever they're throwing out there. So I
actually think the Bills are going to see a ton
of play action thrown at them from Kansas City,
even if Pachenko isn't on the field. And I think
we should expect some misdirection. Yeah. Well,
and I think to your point about Andy Reid is
like the difference between Andy Reid and every
other offensive play caller in the league is.
Every other offensive player play caller has
a plate like a playbook. Andy Reid has like a
play encyclopedia. He's got like a play chat
GPT. There is no limit to the knowledge base
that he can pull from to find a play for a perfect
situation to hit you exactly where it hurts,
because he's probably called that play at some
point in his incredibly long career and successful
career. Right. Like he has coached two impressive
franchises to postseason success. over the course
of several decades. So there isn't something
that he doesn't know how to do. And the thing
that I think is so surprising about the Chiefs,
and I don't want anybody to think I'm admiring
them because I freaking hate them, but the thing
that is impressive about them, one thing that's
impressive about them is the variability of their
offense and their ability to bring between 11
and 17 guys, because they also use role players,
into a scheme, into a playbook. or play encyclopedia
that is so vast and variable and have them ready
every week, right? Because I think that's the
biggest thing that's so surprising is every team
at some time or another seems to struggle with
getting new pieces to be where they're supposed
to be on the field and play their supposed their
supposed role in a play design. And if that role
isn't kind of near leader perfect, plays fall
apart. I think we've seen that in the Bills so
many times is with their kind of revolving door
of wide receivers. If somebody runs the wrong
route, they end up in the same space as another
player. Josh is throwing a ball and neither person
is where they need to be. And it's picked off.
it's just blown up. And I think that's the problem
with most offenses that doesn't seem to always
be the problem with the chief ever with Andy
Reid at the helm is he gets his guys ready and
they know what they're supposed to do, no matter
how many times they change. Juju Smith Schuster
is for sure breaking at least a 40 yard 40 yard
catch and run in this one for sure. All right,
man. Yep. Prediction sure to go wrong. Let's
hit this thing. Let's hit this. All right So
this line opened at Kansas City minus one and
a half It has gone up as high as minus two and
a half in favor of Kansas City and has settled
at Minus two as we speak over under on this game
fifty two and a half points JJ score prediction
Bills 32 chiefs 28. Oh That is bold. That's really
bold. What what what gives you what gives you
the confidence that this Buffalo Bills defense
is going to hold this chief's offense to under
30? Turnovers, just turnovers. That's it. I think
that the Bills have shown that even with really
good players and I'm not talking about my homes,
but I'm talking about some of the skill position
players that they have an elite tier punch out
capability. And so I think that there there may
there may be some fumble fumbles fumble Ruskies
happening out here on Buffalo Bills turf and
then the home field advantage I think as well
that does affect teams and that does has and
does affect the Chiefs. Yeah And I'm gonna go
God and I'm gonna do this for for partly Karmic
reasons because every time I pick against the
Bills they seem to win I am over I am over three
on this podcast picking against the bills. So
I'm going to go Chiefs 34 bills 31. Okay, I think
I think you're I think what we're going to see
and this is probably going to be wrong because
I'm always wrong. You're going to see opposing
opposing offensive philosophies. I actually think
Because the Buffalo Bills now have so many personnel
patterns on defense, they can run out. You're
going to see the Kansas City Chiefs play a tempo,
which they do really, really well. And the Buffalo
Bills really struggle with playing teams that
speed up the pace on offense. It's going to limit
our ability in obvious passing situations to
get guys like Boyer off the field and guys like
Hancock on the field. Guys like Doreen Williams
off the field, guys like Terrell Bernard on the
field. And I think it's going to create some
advantageous mashups. On the flip side, I think,
again, unless Joe Brady is horrible at his job,
the Buffalo Bills are going to grind and suffocate
this Chicanes City Chiefs defense through the
run game. And ultimately what's going to come
down to is which unit defensively do you trust?
to get a bucket when you need it. Is it going
to be Steve Spagnola and his endless play call
sheet of plays that they that no one has ever
seen put on film before that he can run out?
Or is it going to be Babbage and McDermott and
no shade of McDermott? He's a great DC, but Spags
is the goat. So if it comes down to one of those
high leverage movements, I simply trust the Kansas
City Chiefs more to make that play. So I'm going
to go Bills 31, Chiefs 34. I'm taking the over.
I don't think either as these defense are going
to be particularly effective at stopping each
other. All right. Do you do you have a prop you
like to get to? I do. Keon Coleman. Let's talk
about let's talk about Mr. Coleman. All right.
Keon Coleman. I think I think Vegas has his over
under four yardage at this game is at like thirty
three and a half or something like that. Keon
Coleman, JJ, over under fifty and a half yards
receiving. I'm going to hit the over. And I'll
tell you why. It's not because I think he's good.
You've made that clear. Yeah. No, I think it's
because, sorry, I have to address it because
it's blown up on socials and everybody's seen
it. Just the image of him standing behind Sean
McDermott looking absolutely disinterested to
be there in the locker room during a victory
speech from your head coach tells me everything
I need to know about you. Unless you got your
bell rung and you had a concussion and he literally
doesn't know where he is. He should have more
even just fake energy even like he didn't even
pretend to hold put his hands together while
everybody's clapping He just like stood there
with a blank expression. Um, i'm sorry that tells
i've i've played sports with people who have
that sort of affect That's not a guy like that's
he's not gonna be a guy, right? Like he's he
might be too in his head about what's going on
with his life and his And his role and his lack
of efficacy on this team, but you can't live
that way and then succeed. I Unless I see a change
in his attitude. I don't think he's gonna get
any better on the field that being said you're
over under 50 yards I'm hitting over and this
is why Josh Allen wants to be right on Recommending
Keon Coleman so bad and we've both watched it.
We've both watched the all 22 Almost every single
play where Keon Coleman has one of the like three
reads Josh looks to him first, right? He's always
hoping that Keon Coleman is gonna Break away
from the line. He's gonna have a good release
He's gonna be ready and available and he turns
down that option a lot quite a lot the reason
I think he's gonna go over 50 yards is because
I do think that like you said the Bills defense
is not gonna have answers for the Chiefs offense
they're going to get gashed quite a bit and that
Keon Coleman is going to be relied on because
he is that first read for better or worse because
Josh Allen wants that wants to hit that X receiver
whether it's play design Josh's preference or
something else. I know that he looks there often,
and Keanu is the most targeted wide receiver
on this team right now. Although they did go
away from him, and I was happy to see this in
the Carolina game. Josh Palmer was limited today,
so there's a chance that we see him out there.
I don't think so. High ankles with the Bills
tend to be a four -week injury. Yeah, that's
true. This will be three. Yeah. I don't know.
We'll say I'm I am actually taking me under on
this one. Coleman has not had good games against
Kansas City, and I do think they've got dudes
that can frustrate him on the outside of McDuffie
and Watson for sure. However, I will also add
a piece to this that says. After this game Coleman
becomes potentially more disgruntled. We call
up Jacksonville We're like, hey, let's trade
for disgruntled wide receivers and give them
each a Give them each a breath of fresh air and
we'll throw in a second round pick and you send
us Brian Thomas jr And we'll send you key up.
I might do it. I might do it. Yeah, I mean what
would stop you from doing that? Yeah, I don't
think Yeah, I don't know the only thing that's
taught me is like a second a second is a little
rich Maybe, maybe a third in Keon. Yeah, I don't,
but I don't think Jacksonville would take that.
I think they would need, I mean, honestly would,
I mean, I would, I want to buy low on this, but
I don't think a third gets it done. And honestly,
Keon fits in really well to that Liam, Liam common,
Liam Cohen offense. I mean, the reason why Thomas
has been so ineffective is he doesn't want to
run in breakers. He doesn't want to come across
the middle of the field at any level of his route
tree. He has a pure sideline burner. What are
the Buffalo Bills need? Pure sideline, right?
And what is Keon Coleman shown a propensity for?
He's happy to come across the middle, right?
He wants to get dirty in the middle. Yeah, absolutely.
Yeah, no, that's a that's a cool call out. All
right, I'm going to hit this prop until I fail
on it. Michael Hoyt over under one sack. I am
tempted to go over. Um, just because I was so
happy with what I saw from point and then he
had that edge to him and that little bit of like
that little bit of trolling he did at the end
of the game where he took the flop after he drew
a flag for, for, um, for, uh, what was it? Unnecessary
roughness. I think it was. Yeah. Um, but he took
the flop on it. I mean, he's just, and I put
this out on our socials. He is going to be the
player that other fan bases hate that we will
love that he is on our team. Yeah. So just because
of that, I want to say over. I think he's going
to be juiced. I think he's got a little little
cam scat about a scataboo in him too. And he's
this is his first Chiefs game with with the Bills.
I think he's going to be juiced. I would actually
take the over. I think that it's being under
reported maybe that he playing in proximity to
his hometown. Is like just I think it's super
massive for this guy just the way he talks about
ball I think it matters quite a lot and I think
that he it comes through in his play in one game
sample size and I love that somebody got him
on the side think Sal Capaccio or somebody got
him on the sideline and asked him, you know Oh,
you know, you had such a splash in this game
and he's like you only get one chance to make
a first impression like that Awesome. Awesome.
Yes. Yeah, he's a good one. I think we're gonna
like him I gotta hope I'm not wrong about that
Alright, I got one more prop for you Xavier worthy
who has Apparently has a blood feud with the
Buffalo Bills for being one of the 31 teams that
refused to draft him Yes, and but he holds it
personal against the Bills for whatever reason
well they traded out of the spot the exact spot
He was selected I know but like come give me
a break like they weren't taking them in that
spot Yeah, no, but the chiefs did so like it's
the kind of thing. We're like yeah Yeah, I get
it. I get it from the players perspective. It's
like you literally had me on the board and you
treat you. You traded to get away from me. It's
so contrived. How many other teams didn't pick
this guy, right? I mean, give me a break. Anyways,
he seems to save his his best game specifically
for us over under JJ Xavier worthy 80 and a half
yards and half a TD reception. I think people
who watch or listen are going to be tired of
my huge heavy sigh when I try to decide how I
think these, because I just thought I was like,
I think I do that every single time. Shit. It's
supposed to be hard though, right? This is why
we do this. Yeah. I'm going to hit the under
just because I think that this is, you know,
the Chiefs have this groundbreaking new motto
they've employed this season, which is called,
which is everybody got to eat. I don't know if
you've ever heard anything like it. I hate them
so much for that. Yeah, they just started it
this season and no one's ever done anything like
it before just in case you wondered. It's like
jesus christ like the team that you've dominated
in the playoffs for the last like seven years
It's like just because you lost and got obliterated
in the super bowl Yeah, you so you can't troll
the team you lost to because you got don't have
a foot to stand on So you're gonna troll everybody
beat. Yeah, I hate those guys. They're so petty.
They're jerks. I hate it And I hate the disingenuous
media coverage of a two like asking travis kelsey,
man What is it about the selflessness of this
team and this everybody's got to eat motto? It's
like Did you guys not exist last year when Buffalo
got rid of Diggs? Give me a break. Why has no
one asked, is this troll of Buffalo? You frauds.
Why has nobody asked? Hey, this is really exactly
quite identical to a different team that is a
rival of yours. I hate them. I hate them so much.
So I'm going to I'm going to say the under and
I'll tell you why. It's because of that. They're
new. Everybody got to eat motto. I feel like
the bills are probably going to pay a lot of
attention to Russia race and Xavier worthy with
safety help. And so I think, like you said, you
know, the. Other receivers, you know, crossing
underneath Kelsey. I think there's some other
pieces that are going to maybe blow up a little
bit more because I do trust that McDermott and
Babbage are going to try to take away what they
do best in their outside receivers. But that
means, you know, Hollywood Brown and others might
feast. Yeah, I'm you've kind of talked me into
taking the under there too, only because to.
As creative as Andy Reid is as a play caller,
Xavier Worthy still seems to be a player where
it's like, unless he's running, unless he's running
like a go route, they really don't have a lot
schemed up for him. And his catch rate still
isn't the best. He's a little bit of a body catcher.
I think he's sitting somewhere around 59, 60
% for his catch rate. Like he's just. He is an
option on that team, and his speed deep is a
threat, and you see teams favoring it, which
will open stuff up for Rice, which is why I think
you see the majority of the targets going there
for sure. Him and Kelsey. Yeah. All right, man.
One final prop for me. I did a defense. Let's
do an offense. Josh Allen over under one and
a half passing touchdowns. I mean, over probably,
right? I mean, the Chiefs are a team he has played
well against and. Like it's he I mean he regularly
lays a 30 burger on spags, right? I mean spags
is like we have said the goat but spags has not
shut down Josh Allen He has found the one play
every game where he can get Josh Allen off the
field, right? Yeah But he has not been able to
consistently throttle or shut down Josh. So yeah,
I'm gonna say sure. Okay, and I think and if
Joe Brady is a good is a good offensive coordinator
both of those will go to James Cook Because can
we please use James Cook in the past, too, against
this team? Yeah, absolutely. A team that has
been extremely vulnerable to tight ends and running
backs in the middle of the field. All right,
which means we're going to see Dalton Kinkade
for 40 % of the snaps. Just lose my mind right
now. God, I can see it. I can read you the stat
line right now. Well, to be fair, I think Dalton
Kinkade is dragging around an injury again. I
don't think he is. He definitely wasn't 100 %
in the Carolina game. I know, but for the love
of God, come on, what are you going to do? He's
your best. Best pass catcher. He's your best
pass catcher, without a doubt. Oh, God. But then
feed Cook. Just feed Cook. If Cook doesn't have
at least 25 touches in this game, what are we
doing? What are we doing with our hands? What
are we even doing? Yeah. Why are we here? Right.
All right. Let's not end it negative, though.
The Bills are coming off a 40 -9 drubbing, looking
good in the running game, looking better on defense,
and have a matchup with the Chiefs in the prime
425 window at home. in Buffalo. Everyone's going
to have plenty of time to tailgate and get sauced
up. It's it's going to be an electric atmosphere.
Looks like it's going to be an OK weather day.
Not super great. Looks like maybe a little rain,
a little chilly. But but we're excited. And and
yeah, let's let's end on a positive note, Dan.
Let's go. Oh, man. I'm no I'm ready for this
game. I'm absolutely ready for this game. It
matters it matters in a way that we're not used
to it mattering yes but by the same token the
stakes are still really high and no matter what
the narrative is about the bills always do in
the regular season they can't do in the postseason
it is always good to chalk up a win against a
conference rival. potentially put this conference
rival on their back heels, too, when it comes
to actually making the postseason. Right. I mean,
isn't Kansas City right now currently this hanging
on to the seven? Yeah. Yeah, they have three
losses already. So yeah, I would love to hand
them a fourth and make it really, really hard
for them to get into the because they don't have
an easy schedule coming up. They got a pretty
feisty division. Right. So this could be one
that absolutely puts a division conference rival
on their heels. And I would like to see the bills
do that. So, yeah. Yep. No, I'm juice. I'm going
to be watching the game. Very, very intently,
for sure. Very excited for it, JJ. But yeah.
All right. And hopefully all of you listening
home are excited, too. And we thank you for spending
a little bit of time with us before the game.
As always, please like, share and subscribe.
Drop us a review wherever you get your podcasts.
We're on all the big ones. YouTube, Apple, Spotify.
And as always, go Bills. Go Bills.