Welcome back to the Buffalo Bread Podcast, here
with Dan again. Thank you, Dan, again, for my
brief hiatus while you managed with a cast of,
dare I say, knuckleheads in my absence, who we
very much appreciate coming on the show. We are
looking at the Bills returning from the bye.
After a bye in Sean McDermott's time with the
team, he is 8 -0, looking to improve that as
9 -0 on the road against the Carolina Panthers
in a rare 1 p .m. kick. Dan, how we doing? I'm
doing good sir, it's great to have you back on
the pod. Following up on your thanks to our guest
hosts, I just wanna also offer my thanks to Kujo,
Logan, Brandon, appreciate you having on the
pod. Less so Brandon, he was very braggadocious
about his first place Patriots. But Logan Cujo,
you guys are solid. We appreciate it. Can't wait
to have you back on. Brandon, if your team keeps
winning, we may not be friends anymore. So there
is that, in fact. That was the breaks. No, JJ,
we've talked about it a bunch. We're fortunate
to have. a bunch of great guest hosts that just
love football, love talking the sport, and they're
always great when they come on no matter what
their rooting interest is. So it was great we
had these three guys come on, but we're excited
to have you back. Where do you want to start?
We've got a bunch of stuff on the bills by you
and I didn't get to unpack. We got a game against
the Panthers coming up. Trade, deadline, eminent
here in the first week of November. Lots of stuff
to get to. What do you want to talk about, man?
Can we together, because we haven't had a chance
to do this, can we dissect each side of the ball
and then talk about some kind of pressing things
about the timing of the season and cap commitments,
those sorts of things. So you want to start with
the offense? Yeah, let's start with the offense,
because that seems to be the topic de jour. What's
the French word for topic of the week? Because
de jour is of the day, but man, we have been
as a... De week. Oh my God. De week. We have
been absolutely obsessing over the ills of this
offense. And I think JJ, it's because this was
not the side of the ball that was supposed to
be the problem. We knew coming into the season,
the defense was going to have its growing pains.
It might take a little bit longer to come together.
Lots of new young parts being, um, being installed
into this defense. The offense was supposed to
be where the continuity was a couple of tweaks
here, a little bit of, a little bit of oil here,
but the machine of the offense was supposed to
run as it was intended. And the past couple of
weeks, JJ against, I mean, let's just say it.
teams with better dudes on the defensive side
of the ball and teams that were pretty well coached,
stymie the spills often. So I think that's a
great place to start. Yeah. And I think that
the thing that I thought of and I've been texting,
I'll say to anybody that will listen is that
the everybody eats mentality only works if James
is cooking, right? Like if James cooks, cooks,
then everyone can eat. Nobody's eating if he's
not cooking. It's so good to have you back. It's
so good to have you back. Well, I mean, we got
these awesome pun opportunities. Why aren't we
taking advantage of them, people? But it's absolutely
true that if any time that the Bills this season
have... reserved him or held him out and not
giving him his touches, the whole offense grinds
to a halt. It's three and outs, it's punts, it's
turnovers while they're trying to force balls
into triple coverage. They have to establish
the run, they have to establish James Cook in
the passing game, or there's just not going to
be anything happening. And so in terms of the
buffet line, I don't even think Kincaid stands
in front of James Cook because the importance
of getting James Cook moving is what's going
to bring those 12 personnel, personnel two tight
ends on the field, seam balls open where a safety
or a linebacker is so afraid of the run that
they vacate some space and then Kincaid can fill
behind them. Like that's that is just the reality
is unless Cook is crushing it, the Dolphins isn't
going to move anywhere. And that is a. critical
component that the Patriots exploited they sold
out to stop the run and The bills couldn't do
anything about it Yeah, what do you think their
hesitances and getting him more involved? in
the passing game. I mean, that that opportunity
was there against the Falcons. And to a large
extent, it was there against the Patriots, too,
as were the play action opportunities, which
I feel like we need to unpack as well a little
bit. But is it is it some of the higher profile
drops Cook has had over the past few seasons?
Like he has legitimately dropped like three or
four touchdown balls. But he's also a guy who's
proven he can get a ton of separation in the
pass game too. I mean, he's elusive with the
ball and without the ball in his hands. He's
a plus route runner for a running back. I mean,
is it the drops? Is it? They're worried about
the wear and tear. Why aren't they involving
Cook more in the passing game out of the backfield,
do you think? I mean, just my opinion is that
it's twofold. It's one, his route running is
good. We know it's good, but it might not be
ideal. They're seeing things in practice that
are discouraging them from using him in past
concepts, more significant past concepts. What
we know from Cook is he's awesome at dump downs
and he's good at wheel routes. I haven't seen
him do more than that. Like I've not seen him
do a sideline whip. I haven't seen him do a kind
of a short in or the slant type of concept. So
it might be that that he's kind of limited with
the tree of options and that they want to do
some different things and complexity wise. And
then the other thing is he's a he's a small and
he's a thin bottomed kind of dude. I wonder if
it's just the matter of OK, those kind of dump
offs and things over the middle, especially if
Josh is pressured can be. you know, get your
wide receiver lit up kind of routes. And I think
there may be more worried about the wear and
tear, not from a too many snaps standpoint, but
from a types of collision standpoint. When he's
running the ball, he's in control. If he's waiting
for a ball to arrive, he might get cleaned out.
Yeah, no, I think that's fair. I it's just I
for the life of me and that Falcons game, I couldn't
figure out, especially. when Palmer goes down,
when for whatever reason we are sacrificing Keon
Coleman play after play to the press god that
is AJ Terrell, like you're effectively down a
couple of your weapons. I could not figure out
why when all they were blitzing so hard. There
were points where there were 11 Falcons in the
box. Why you're not leaking out cook. Replace
the blitz with the ball. I know, dude. To your
point about route concepts, in that particular
case, when you're looking for that hot route
on the Blitz to counter the Blitz, it doesn't
need doesn't need to be necessarily an exotic
route, right? It just needs to be something that
takes the pressure off your QB immediately and
gives them an avenue to throw the ball out quickly.
That's really like they can scale up, cook however
they feel like they want to in this pass game.
I want them to start where they were two years
ago. Right? I mean, let's just get back to those
type of basic things. But they seem reluctant
even to do that. I... Rigidity is the word that
comes to mind when they feel like they have typecast
their talent in certain roles. Because Keon is
six whatever, two whatever, and has the vertical
leap that he has, he must be the X. Even though
we know his route tree, his route stems and all
that, lean more towards power slot. Shakir is
a little bit tinier, must be the slot. Dalton
Kinkade, we're only going to use him on 49 %
of passes because we don't think he can hold
up body -wise in the blocking that we need him
to do. I mean, it just feels like we're not letting
our guys do what they're best at. service to
a scheme that doesn't seem to maximize what anyone
is best at Yeah, no, I think that there was a
I think a buffalo rumblings Author I forget the
author's name. So I apologize for that But who
who said Joe Brady coaches from a place of pure
hubris and I think that that is absolutely true.
It's It's a little bit of why Ken Dorsey didn't
didn't work out here. It's this sense of like,
my scheme is my scheme is good. They just need
to execute it. Right. Instead of I have these
players, let's put them in the best position
to succeed. It's I know what route concepts should
look like. I know what the design of the place
should be. And they just have to get it done.
Well, they're not getting it done. You got to
adapt at that point. You got to change it up.
Well, and the stuff that got Dorsey fired like.
the running mesh, mesh routes, 80 % of the game
and having three guys in route concepts end up
in the same place. When you look back at Bill's
film, that is happening again over these last
six weeks, even the games that they have won.
A lot of the complacency, a lot of the predictability
of the Dorsey scheme is now eking its way in
into Brady's play calling as well. I mean, this
is a team that when they're in shotgun is passing
80 % of the time. If you know is an opposing
defense, eight out of 10 potential snaps out
of shotgun, the bills are going to pass it. You're
going to play those odds, and you're going to
guess right. When Josh is lining up under center,
they're not doing play action out of center,
and they're running the ball at about a 70 %
clip when Josh is under center. Again, if you're
an opposing defense, I'm going to play those
odds, right? And they've seen these mesh concepts
before. Last year, it's the exact same concepts
we ran. Opposing defenses, they appear to be
more ready to take away the space they know these
wide receivers ultimately covet on the Buffalo
Bills. It's not just about personnel. To me,
it's about the reliance on aspects of the scheme
that other teams, because they have coaches that
get paid to stop you, are clearly honed in on
and are clearly ready to stop game in and game
out. Do you have a sense, is it your opinion
that this is a failure, the offense specifically,
play calling? Is it a failure of Joe Brady's
scheme, decision making, and actual play calling?
Or are you of the conspiracy theorists that say
that Sean McDermott wants to cover up his poor,
porous defense and is demanding a ball control,
15 play drive type of offense, and that's hamstringing
Joe Brady's play calling flexibility? I, oh God,
I really, I don't think it's the latter. I don't
buy into the McDermott conspiracy theory. And
I'm listen, I'm not smart enough. I've watched
a lot of football, but I'm not smart enough to
tell you like over in an overarching way how
good or bad a scheme is. I do, however, understand
trends and I do understand sequencing. And I
know within Brady's call sheet, he's got a lot
of really fun stuff, formation wise, that he's
been rolling out. And I know that there are wrinkles
in that play sheet that he could be adding to
each of these formations. We talked about it.
Shoot, dude, that first play against the Falcons
out of how long have you and I been asking for?
early down, play action shots deep down the field
to Palmer or to Coleman out of heavier personnel.
Deep digs out of heavy personnel. Well, and you're
absolutely right. And it happened in that one
play, and that's the only time it happened, right?
It did. This reminds me, now follow me, and you're
probably going to laud me with all the praise
that you usually do for my analogies. This reminds
me of me early on playing Tekken 2, wanting to
get to like the 17 button combination super combo,
but not recognizing the facts that my skills
wouldn't allow me to complete the four button
combo, right? Like you, you're like, I'm going
to do the like super dragon backflip kick thing,
but you just don't have that capacity yet. And
that feels like Joe Brady's call sheet. He's
got these like 17, you know, hit combos, but
he's not able to complete the three hit combo
that you have to build on to get there. And so
he just keeps mashing the buttons, and it's sometimes
as effective and sometimes not, but he's never
actually able to unlock any of the super ultra
combos at the end because he just doesn't have
the capacity. Either his players don't, he doesn't,
or both. You know, I will say this. Brady has
not been a play caller in the NFL for a very
long time. But we said this about when he was
first hired. He's a guy who designs really good
run concepts. He got a lot of credit as the passing
game coordinator at LSU because there was, you
know, I think like Jamar chase, Justin Jefferson,
but like he's never even in Carolina. For his
short stint as an offensive play caller there.
He was never able to scheme for specific guys
He came up with these overarching concepts that
he asked his players to fit into and I think
what you have here is in Buffalo is the opportunity
without a Stefan digs without a Without an alpha
wide receiver one of that wide receiver room.
You've got the ability to do concept over scheming
to specific talent But I think we've seen how
thin the margins are once opposing defenses start
to adjust. We clearly see that there needs to
be a ball winner. There needs to be a dude that
steps up and calls for it when the time comes.
But none of them want to do that in sort of service
to the rest of the guys in the locker room and
their perception of what the scheme and the concepts
are. Right. Well, and I think to add to that
also, the fact that teams are either loading
the box or just blitzing Josh Allen mercilessly,
and that Joe Brady hasn't found alternatives
to either of those realities. That's how Atlanta
and the Patriots in two consecutive weeks were
able to beat the bills. They just and they sent
the house at Josh whenever they were, you know,
in a situation where they felt they could. And
they sold out to stop the run on early downs
because the bills have what is like 79 percent
of first downs are runs for the bills. It's insane,
which is just so predictable. Like I I used to
defend a lot of the play calling with Joe Brady
last year because they'd be like, it's so predictable.
But he was scoring it. record -setting rate,
you know, so it was working. James Cook was regularly
above four yards per carry and I was like, why
break it, right? It works. But this year, what's
silly is James Cook is still five yards per carry
average, right? Like he's still crushing it.
But the first down runs have come, have been
less and less successful after the first four
weeks against inferior opponents, minus the Ravens.
Without a doubt. And I think teams not only,
I mean, point you bring up about the Blitz is
so key. But the fact that the Bills are facing
more man coverage in general is also has also
been something that has led to, I think, a degradation
across the board for for a lot of our a lot of
our past catchers. Like you look at a lot of
their numbers from last year, right? Man versus
zone splits. Cleo Shakur is a great example,
right? yards per outrun, 2 .4 yards last season.
We know he's not a huge man beater, but man,
he was good in zone, right? This season, yards
per outrun, identical man versus zone, 1 .9 yards
to 2 .1 yards, almost identical. And both are
reduction from last season, mostly because Shakir
is facing more man coverage at this point from
opposing teams. Teams have just said, listen,
Your dudes can't beat our dudes on the outside.
Your dudes can't beat our dudes on the slot unless
it's Dalton Kincaid creating a mismatch. There's
just no real physical mismatch, mismatch opportunities
for Brady to play with at this point. So when
he rolls out the same mold of what he rolled
out last year, teams are not countering with
man, more blitz concepts. He doesn't have a lot
of answers. Because I think in part there are
not a lot of answers for what not a lot of answers
personnel wise Yeah, and I think to those people
who are like, oh my gosh, can the bills get something
done at the trade deadline? There's nothing right
like there's nothing out there like no teams
are giving up assets that are quality young pass
catchers And we don't need another washed old
receiver Too many teams are still in it at this
point, too. I mean, that's the problem. Even
a team like the Saints, who everyone thinks because
they're 1 -6 or whatever they are, they're going
to start selling that squad for parts. But Kellen
Moore has them playing really hard behind Spencer
Rattler. Brandon Staley has come up with some
really funky defensive schemes there. That's
a coaching squad that's going to have patience
from ownership. They're going to be able to build
what they want to build there. And they're eventually
either going to see what they have with Tyler
show or Chuck show. What's his name? Chuck. Chuck.
They're going to see what they have with Tyler
Chuck, or they're going to be in the, in the,
uh, clade club, Nick, um, uh, lottery for next
year. Right. Either way. They have a larvae already
committed on his fifth year option. And Rashid
Shahid says he wants to stay in New Orleans,
even if it's on a team friendly deal. If I'm
Kellen Moore, I'm like, I want those two guys
as weapons for whatever new young rookie QB I'm
going to be rolling out here. Right. There's
just not a ton of incentive unless you're willing
to give up premium draft capital for the Saints
to trade any one of those guys. Not to mention
that anybody anyone who has actual skill. on
one of those flailing teams that you're able
to get is only going to be a rental because the
bills don't have, they just paid Shakira, they
just paid Bernard, they just paid, they paid
a lot of players who are absolutely trash so
far this season. And so not to say Shakira is,
I think that he's the one exception, but Bernard's
looked terrible. Benford looked terrible. Listen,
Shakir's underlying metrics are not great this
season. His catch rate's down. We already talked
about yards per outrun. That's down. His average
depth of target is down. He's pretty much just
a screen target at this point. His EPA per play
looks good as an outside receiver, but it's because
he has like a hundred of his 110 yards after
the catch. Exactly. And not to take that away
from him. That's a skill that I don't think anyone
really expected what he's amazing at. But it's
a matter of like, that's not, it's not real life.
Like his, his, any of his positive metrics are
kind of inflated erroneously. All that to say,
yeah, I'm, I'm worried about the offense. We
have to see what they, what they look like coming
out of the break. And then also the, the Chiefs
is going to be another real test. And I think
that I for one am, you know, I'm kind of in camp
blues to the Chiefs if it means that you're not
showing too much and like that they don't seem
expertly prepared for you once you meet them
in the playoffs because that just feels like
that's the way it's been every season is the
Bills laid on the line to beat the Chiefs during
the regular season. Don't end up getting the
one seed when it matters. and then see the Chiefs
in Arrowhead and the Chiefs have all the answers.
That's the conspiracy theory that Brandon and
I indulged with a little bit is that the Bills
often suck so bad right now because they they
don't want to show anything to the Chiefs. They're
doing what the Chiefs typically do, which is
don't show anything during the regular season.
Make everyone lull everyone into thinking that
you suck. And then all of a sudden, and your
readers rolling out some crazy stuff. But listen,
the Chiefs like. The difference is Andy Reid
has the ability to do that. The Bill's coaching
staff has never proved that they can. Because
his playbook, unlike Brady, is endless with all
of those variations on all of those same multiple
formations we talked about, but his ability to
tap into those and evolve those is endless. I
mean, JJ, this is a team that didn't, the Kansas
City Chiefs that didn't have a run game for the
first three or four games they played this season.
Then all of a sudden, the second half of games
that they have played to get themselves to a
respectable four and three record, they're averaging
150 yards per game. What does Andy Reid do the
minute his run game shows up? Spams play action
into the playbook. Patrick Mahomes over the last
four weeks is a top five QB in play action pass
rate, right? We have arguably the best offensive
line and the best run game in the AFC and Josh
Axon's play, Josh Allen's play action rate is
21st in the league. Like that's always, what
are, what are you hiding? Right? I mean, that's
my question for people that are like Brady, Brady's
just hiding stuff. He doesn't want to show anything.
What do we think he realistically has to show?
There's nothing. I mean, there's nothing. I think
that, you know, the thing, a friend of mine was
like, hey, what's this weekend look like? You
know, a casual football fan was like, what's
this weekend look like for the Bills? And I was
like, well, you know, the three players they're
getting back might not play or might play in
small amounts. They're probably not in football
shape quite yet or game shape. Hairston's a wild
card, probably. may not get any snaps, and if
he does, it's going to be by committee. Oh, God,
I hope he gets snaps. Yeah, I hope he does too.
Gosh, we need somebody. But, you know, with all
that, basically the thing I said was like, there's
no secret here. Joe Brady's never actually designed
a really good passing concept in a game. Anywhere
he's been. He had Jamar Chase and Justin Jefferson.
You don't actually need to do anything when those
are your outside wide receivers. When your outside
wide receivers are both generational talents,
right? Like you don't need to be awesome at planning
or scheming guys open because we've never seen
it. We've never seen it in any of his time taking
over for Dorsey or being the standalone OC last
year and this year so far is a concept where
we're like, oh my gosh, that was perfect and
It was all his plan to scrape or get that guy
free. There was a couple, you know, a couple
of balls here and there to concave Hawes that
looked like that. But looking back at those with
all 22, most of it was blown coverage. It was
people who were supposed to be chasing and fell
down. It was a pick play in some regards that
worked successfully because the player was picked
by his own teammate. You know, like it was not
as much. Oh, wow, that was a brilliant concept.
the defense was left choosing between multiple,
you know, really good looking routes. No, it
was, it was pretty much they got lucky. So, um,
we haven't seen it yet. And, and unless he finds
a way to develop that, I, I don't see a lot happening
with this, this offense. If teams are, if they're
not able to pivot off of what they've been doing
and adapt, they're not, they're going to continue
to look terrible. With Josh Allen, which is just
crazy. Which is crazy to think about, right?
I mean, Josh is on pace for his lowest average
yards per attempt of his entire career. That
is insane. He is at his physical peak. More and
more and more, we're asking him to look just
beyond, or in a lot of cases, just behind the
line of scrimmage for a lot of his completions.
I mean, the time to roll out this super secret
playbook that actually schemes for a wide receiver
one would have been when we still had Stefan
Diggs. But listen, this team was too busy making
the point that they could have won without him,
right? To send him a message and then ultimately
ship him off. And then they haven't had any one
of that caliber in the wide receiver room since
he left, right? But again, even when Brady had
DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel and Carolina, like
it was a bunch of guys that clearly very different
talent levels with stat lines that were almost
exactly the same because of the scheme that Brady
was running. Concepts over maximizing core talent,
right? So, I mean, listen, even if we get Chris
Olave, Chris Olave is so good because he's a
natural separator, but Kellen Moore moves him
all over that formation. He only plays about
50 % or so of his snaps on the outside. Do we
have the confidence that if we give Joe Brady
a Chris Olave, he's going to use him as creatively
across the formation as Kellen Moore is and maximize
those talents? I'm not confident about that.
No. Well, and I think that one of the most disappointing
things about Keon Coleman is we're both disappointed
in his usage. We're disappointed he doesn't move
around. I have a suspicion that it's not because
the scheme is poor. I think it's because Keon
Coleman is poor. I think he is such a limited
route runner that his snaps from anywhere other
than his one position are confusing for him.
And that's just from watching him. And so many
people are like, oh my gosh, the fades are back
shoulder balls to Keon Coleman, that ain't it.
You have to understand that his route tree, when
you look at the advanced metrics or the charts
that they show that track the actual player movements,
it doesn't. automatically mean that all he's
getting are fade balls on the outside some of
that is that's where he is when the ball reaches
him doesn't mean he was where he was supposed
to be yeah it looks like a back shoulder it looks
like it but it might have been a comeback that
he just didn't complete the route it might have
been an in break that he just didn't get to the
spot he was supposed to and so I just you know
there's a lot of criticism on Joe Brady even
Josh Allen in some regards about you know not
setting up Keon for success I just think he's
bad Like that's my opinion so far in these six
games of his second year in the league. I think
that it was a miss and not that there was anyone
in that class where the Bills picked that I think
is like an absolute stud that they could have
had. I don't think Xavier Worthy is like... exceptional.
I think he's very, very fast. He's got like a
59 % catch rate. Bill's fans would be killing
him as a body catcher, which we knew he was coming
out of the draft. Right. And that's what I'm
saying, is at that point in the draft, none of
the wide receivers that the Bills traded out
of position to grab or the receivers taken immediately
after Keon Coleman seem to be moving the needle
at this point in their career either. I'd say
one exception would be Lad McConkey. Oh, yeah.
That's it. There you go. But that, that's the
thing though, is the Bill's pick Lad McConkey,
do they use him appropriately or is he always
in a position where he's fighting through trying
to be some kind of receiver? He's not because
those schemes not great for him. Yeah. Man, oh
my God. All right. I'm not ready. I'm not as
out on Keon as you are. I'm not ready to call,
put him in bus territory yet. Listen, I do think
it's concerning because wide receiver is a position
where early on in a player's career, you really
do see how good they are. Like it does not take
long for a lot of wide receivers to gear up and
start playing at a top level in the league. Keon,
yes, I'm concerned with how long it's taken to
really see what he has to offer, but I'm not
ready to be completely done with him yet. Here's
what I am ready to see. I'm ready to see him
not be the wide receiver that gets the majority
of our snap share. I'm ready to see him be the
wide receiver that does not get the majority
of the targets from Josh. And I am ready to see
him move around the formation. Even if his route
tree is still so simplified, I wouldn't mind
seeing him in the slot and see how many slants
he can run on back -to -back drop -backs, right?
Like at some point, and we know Josh likes this,
He likes a big body target in the middle of the
field that can square up show numbers on a route.
Right. And give him a good target can can do
that. Right. I mean, those are the things I'm
ready to see. I'm not yet ready to say, say,
though, the key on is bussed, but I'm talk to
me again after the Kansas City game and ziger
worthy lights us up for 150 and two TDs. Right.
then you might be talking different. Oh, I'll
be screaming different. I'll be, yeah, I'll be
mad. And I'll go from, I don't know anything
about scheme to here's the scheme I would run
JJ. Here's exactly the scheme and why they stink
at it. Well, listen, man, it can't, it can't
be all negative. It can't be all negative. We
got to talk about a positive and that positive
is Dalton Kincaid. And despite the fact, okay,
this is going to be a backhanded compliment.
Despite the fact that Joe Brady is only using
Dalton Kincaid on a Chuck's note sheet, 49 %
snapshot. Criminal criminal criminal absolutely
criminal. All right. He is according to ESPN
analytics and their open scores He is the number
three most effective pass catcher in the league
So I love ESPN open scores because it's like
this cool aggregator where they will take Yak
They'll take your ability to get separation.
They will take yards per outrun and your catch
rate, and they will blend it into this comprehensive
aggregated rating about where you stand as a
pass catcher. And he is number three according
to those scores. He is, dude, an insane 2 .9
yards per outrun tied for fourth in the league.
And his average separation versus both man and
zone is over 3 .3 yards. It's, dude, the average
for the league, just for context for our listeners,
Three yards you are considered very open. Two
yards you're considered restricted. Anything
less than two yards you're considered covered
very tightly. He is regularly averaging versus
any type of coverage over 3 .3 yards of separation.
That's amazing. And his catch rate has gone from
less than 49 % last year to 83 % this year. Like
he's doing everything we thought he would do
and he's literally doing it with half. half the
snaps of a lot of other guys in the room. It's
insane, this talent. And you could see how much
they missed him in that Falcons game, too. Yeah,
absolutely. I think that it's, you know, the
biggest concern is Kincaid, you know, has not
been a player that's proven he could stay healthy.
And so you hope that this is the this is the
difference, right? Like you hope the new strength
and conditioning coaches are able to who may
the previous regime may have been fired specifically
because of Kincaid. because it was such a disappointment
that he had a poor season after such an incredible
rookie showing, and then it's found that he had
been battling an injury all year. So yeah, we'll
see how it goes from here. I think that if he
can stay on the field, the Bills are in excellent
shape. Injuries, man, it's always a story, and
it's a huge story for the offense right now.
It's a big story for the defense in a lot of
ways. And you just hope that enough of these
guys can return by the end of the season. to
make a push if they can get there and wrestle
back the first position in AFC East from the
Patriots, which sounds crazy, feels crazy, right?
Got it. Sucks being back in 2017. I know. Yeah.
I should be buying some stocks, though. I know,
right? The Colts are good. The Steelers are good.
The Patriots are good. It's wild. Wild times
to be alive. Right. Yeah. But yeah, no, I think
Kincaid's a bright spot. Back one more kind of
dark mark, though. Josh Allen deep passing. What
are your opinions of it? It's bad and and I miss
it. At least I miss his ability to do it. And
I mean, listen, it just looks so much easier
for guys. Jalen hurts, who is a QB, who is regularly
questioned for his passing prowess. I mean, just
having Devonta Smith and AJ Brown just makes
it look so easy. Right. Like Dak Prescott is
having an MVP season. throwing moonshots to George
Pickens. And don't get me wrong, he's doing way
more than that. Dak is literally, for my money,
playing the best that I've any QB in the league.
And I would include Patrick Patrick Mahomes recent
offensive resurgence in there. Dak looks great
playing out of his mind, right? So to me, I struggle
because like, Josh doesn't have a downfield ball
winner. Right. But even when he still had digs,
you kind of saw some of the the chinks and the
Josh Allen bombs a downfield with reckless abandon
and it always works type of armor. And I think
we easily blame personnel and we blame like the
lack of having that deep downfield X typical
threat, right? I mean, even Stefan Diggs, he
was able to win downfield because of his route
running and his speed. Josh... Josh has never
been a first read guy. When you look at FTN,
FTN has a great stats hub where they will actually
break down first read, second read for a lot
of QBs. It's an amazing stat hub to go through.
And that particular stat is very enlightening
because Josh, going all the way back to 2020,
his breakout season, he only goes to his first
three at about 48 % of the time, right? Josh
has always shown that he needs to see guys separate
and think about when his deep ball was the best,
he had a guy like John Brown and John Brown was
an amazing separator down the field. Why did
the Bills go after Josh Palmer? Because of, despite
the fact that we were all like, he's like the
fourth best wide out in LA, right? Because they
thought he could win with separation downfield.
The whole point to land this plane and bring
it home is that I think part of the problem is
Josh, right? Like the way Josh, Josh doesn't
throw a lot of guys open. Dan, how dare you just
as a member of Bill's mafia to cast aspersions
and claim that Josh Allen is not a perfect angel
who does every single thing right in a football
game. He's an amazing QB, but dude, if he doesn't
immediately see separation on his first read
downfield, he checks off of it. That's been him
in his entire career. And I'm being facetious
because I just think it's so funny that any time
you try to have a rational conversation with
another Bills fan, specifically online, right?
And you're like, wow, Josh turned down these
four different... throws on third down that would
have been first downs, gunslinging for something
better or different or bigger, or was way off
target when that would have been a surefire walk
in touchdown, you get absolutely blown up. People,
you can't claim the savior is anything but pure,
right? I know. He's making mistakes though, he
is. He is. And that's the dichotomy that I've
seen with him this season. He is either, he is
either too hesitant to throw the deep ball and
moments where it would open the game up early
or late in games. He's hunting for the big play
and still not seeing that separation and chucking
up, chucking up balls to Kian Coleman in the
end zone that have no hope of being caught. It's,
it's either one or the other. There's yeah. Yeah.
His deep ball game is definitely off. Part of
it is for sure personnel, but part of it is just
the way he approaches. generally his passing
game. Yeah, absolutely. All right. I think I
think I'm tired out about offense, man, like
the doom and gloom. I'm just too doom. I know.
It's a it's a lot of doomerism right now, but
for for a good reason. I mean, it's yeah, I mean,
we should probably talk about the super bright
spot, which is the bills top of the oh, wait,
no, nevermind their bottom of the league terrible
defense. Yes, we should talk about that. I mean,
listen, the four -man pass rush, it's okay. It's
okay. It's better than it's been in a few years,
right? It's just not working in tandem with our
coverage. That is a slight bright spot. Dude,
listen, it is only the fourth slowest in the
league time to pressure defense at 2 .8 seconds,
and they're tied for sixth worst at their get
-off at the snap. I mean, come on. Who needs
better than worst 10 in the league? Hey. Who's
that big tackle from Kentucky in the middle of
the defense who you didn't want to draft, who's
literally playing out of his mind? You want to
chat about him? He is a bright spot. Deion Walker.
I still, and for anybody listening, I promised
pre -season that if he was awesome, I would hand
draw a card of Josh Allen and Deion Walker walking
into the sunset across the field of flowers and
send it to One Bill's Drive. I still will do
that. I said by week four, but then there was
like a little bit of an injury thing and he was
in and out a little bit of lineup and then he
didn't have a great supporting cast. So I'm giving
him that extra space, but he so far has impressed
and proven me wrong. And I'm okay with being
wrong. I do it quite often. Listen and fairness
that I'm not just saying this because we're more
friends, right? Like you're not a hundred percent
wrong about him. Like he is high variance There
are still run reps where he gets blown out of
his cleats because he just he just he's so big
He's too tall. He just can't yeah, he just can't
think in the way that you need him to right?
He can only bend at the waist. I mean, there's
no hips. He has no flexibility below his hips.
That's right He should get on the the TB 12 method
for sure. That's all about hip pliability, right?
But um, but Within that variance, you're seeing
the high -end splash plays that you want to see
out of a young player that continues to give
you hope in their development and allows them
to still contribute on the field. And it makes
that low floor for them in the variance model
a little bit more tolerable. So we're seeing
that out of him for sure. Yeah, I've been impressed.
I mean, there are some plays that he turns in
that you can say, if he just is able to... if
he's able to develop his pass and his pass rush
and his run stuff in directions towards the flashes
he's made, he's going to be a top 15 defensive
tackle in the league, no doubt in two or three
years because he just there are things he does
that are in. unexpected from any defensive tackle.
You know, he has split some double teams, which
is basically the hardest thing to do in the NFL
for a de -tackle, and made plays after the split.
And then he has also shown some kind of inhuman
speed for a giant person such as himself at different
times. I think the biggest thing for me, I'm
impressed with his hand fighting. He has better
than expected you know, hand fighting abilities
at this level and has had winning reps. Even
if he didn't, you know, make a splash play after
he's had winning reps with hand fighting against
some really, really talented guards and centers,
which you love to see. Like that's another another
feather in his cap. If he can build on that again,
you know, with consistency, he'll he'll be a
very, very good player. I think that. So if we're
looking at the coordinators, Joe Brady so far
this season. C-, D +, like you're showing up
to games seemingly unprepared. Bobby Babich?
B-, he tends to... put a good half together with
what we could consider inferior talent on the
defensive side and some injuries issues that
are kind of piling up. Taylor Raff's been playing
her. He's probably going to be out now. We're
going to see the shell of Jordan Poirier on the
field probably this weekend. Is Jordan Hancock
on the injury report? Why aren't we seeing him?
No, isn't Jordan Hancock? Dorian Strong's on
IR. Dorian Strong's the one who's like, they're
worried about him having a career -ending injury.
But Hancock's healthy, right? Let me check the
injury report. Yeah, you go ahead and check that,
but I'll continue talking about the Babbage situation.
Yeah, Hancock's not on the injury report. Keep
going. I like that. He does much better, I believe,
in adapting and adjusting at the half or at the
end of a quarter. So his variance is wide, but
he... Tends to he has tended to figure out teams
in a way that that puts the bills in position
to win games late Better than I think Joe Brady
has mm -hmm. I think that's fair and like Brady,
there are personnel questions about what is the
problem? Is it personnel? Is it scheme? Is it
a mix of both? Let's hone in on some of that
personnel. We talked about the plus side on the
defense with Walker. Let's talk about some of
the not so plus guys though. And I want to start
with linebacker play. JJ, here's my hot take.
This defense is better when Shaq Thompson and
Dorian Williams are the starting linebackers.
True or false? 100 % true. Yeah, absolutely.
And I'll add to it. I think that the way that
the front four has played on the defensive line
has created a situation where more interior offensive
linemen on the opponents are getting to the second
level and they have been gobbling up the size
linebackers of Milano and Bernard. Where they
they haven't been able to scoop up Dorian Williams
and Shaq Thompson as much because they're a little
bit bigger a little bit more traditional sized
linebackers And so that's that's really you know,
if Duquan Jones is not in the game the second
level other than Thompson and Williams is at
a disadvantage because The defensive tackles
are more penetration style and they've been letting
interior linemen get to the second level Yeah,
I mean thought among thoughts a lot of thoughts
amongst Bill's mafia that Bernard is is simply
playing hurt But I mean they're also playing
a style of defense and base Selling out to stop
the run that Bernard's just not built for he's
a coverage linebacker. That's his game, right?
His and long and late downs third and third and
long downs Bernard is the exact person you on
the field But you don't want him sticking his
nose in there with in a three linebacker set
on second and four He's never going to be the
person to, you know, unless he gets an absolute
clean line to the football and can shoot a gap.
He's not going to shed. He's not going to stack
and shed a block and then kind of muddy it up.
And Shaq Thompson is a talented veteran with
great instincts. And he and again, this is why
a lot of people think Bernard is hurt at his
age. Still looks like a step or two quicker than
Bernard does. Yeah. And then we know Dorian Williams
is an athletic freak. And honestly, Williams
playing next to a guy. like Thompson, to me,
lets those guys specialize. Like, Thompson is
kind of your everything field roamer. We know
he can fit the run. We know he's passable on
coverage. Drop to pick six against the Falcons,
right? Because he's got those great veteran instincts.
Just like Dorian Williams, like, hunt at the
line of scrimmage, right? Which is what we know
he does best. Williams looks way more comfortable
playing next to Thompson than he does playing
next to Bernard. And I don't think that's a coincidence.
Well, and I think that... I think anybody watching
the way that Mamelano has played at all this
season could tell you that I think it's it. That's
it. Like, I don't think he's going to find very
many suitors in free agency. And I think the
Bills kind of saw the writing on the wall when
they shortened his contract and gave him a pay
cut. I think he's just done. He has been injury
prone his entire career, but he's at the point
where it's like, it's too many. Mm -hmm. Yeah,
I mean at some point like your best years are
behind you Yeah, and for him it might have been
2022 2021 who knows at this point. Yeah I'll
talk about the safeties another another duo of
question Here's mine. If tomorrow Hamlin weren't
hurt Cole Bishop and tomorrow Hamlin should be
the starting safety combo. Yeah, absolutely Yeah,
yeah one I think I think that to Taylor rap them
them coming out to say that Taylor rap had a
knee injury that he's been nursing and trying
to play through give some context to how he's
been because he's he was always kind of a heat
seeking missile from the safety position and
he's looked tentative slow his change of direction
seems like he's a little bit he's been lagging
behind if he's been playing with a bum knee all
season then it makes a lot of sense that that's
what his play has looked like because it it doesn't
make sense for somebody i think he's under 30
still or just over 30 RAP is under 30. Under
30, yeah. So it doesn't make sense for somebody
under 30 with a clean bill of health on the injury
report to have changed the way that they play
in their efficacy so much from one season to
the next, especially because late in the season
last year, he was coming on and looked like one
of the strongest players on the team to come
into this season and just look so bad and take
such terrible angles. The angles, my God. Oh
yeah. Well, and that's, that's exactly it. It's
like, that's the kind of stuff you don't lose,
right? Like you don't just like lose that all
of a sudden. I mean, we know that Poir in his
seasons in Miami or season in Miami looked bad
with his angles, but it was because of his athleticism.
He was still taking the angle that a younger,
faster version of himself could have, could have
made. And that seemed, that looks a lot like
what rap is doing, but the difference is age
isn't the problem. I think it's the injury. Yeah.
I think too, this was the problem coming into
the year rap and Bishop. They, they have a skill
set that is very similar to each other. They
don't compliment each other. They're both guys
that we know play better when they're, when they
are closer to the line of scrimmage. They're
both box safeties, but we also know that McDermott
like values, variability, and interchangeability
with his safety play. So, I mean, we've seen
Cole Bishop have a really rough start to the
year in a lot of respects, because he's playing
a ton of free safety. But in college, that was
just not what the book on him was. He has a box
safety, drop down and cover one, kill slants
as the robber. Like that's what that dude does.
And again, kind of harkening back to our talk
about Brady and the offensive scheme. I get what
McDermott and Babbage want out of the scheme,
but you've got two guys, because their skill
sets are not complimentary, that cannot give
you what you are seeking in the scheme. You are
committed to pigeonholing them into those roles,
as opposed to working with maybe what they do
best. Because Rap, I don't think he's playing
great, but he also doesn't look like he trusts
Cole Bishop, that Cole Bishop is going to be
in the place where he needs to, too. So he's
trying to play and kind of hedge a little bit
to cover up for... what he thinks are mistakes
he is anticipating from Cole, be it in communication,
be it in coverage, be it in run fits, what have
you. Like, Rapp doesn't look as comfortable playing
next to Bishop as he does looking, looking, playing
next to a guy like Demar Hamlin, who's far better
in coverage and playing that center field role.
Yeah. Yeah, no, I think you're right. I think
it's kind of a little bit of a mismatch of the
whole back. Well, to me, Rapp's problems might
be injury based. But Rapp and Bishop's problems
both might be coverage based. Benford has not
been good. Like he's close. He's close to his
to his receivers, but he's giving up everything
thrown towards him. His best skill has been in
run fits. And that wasn't the reason they gave
him a boatload of money, right? Benford has looked
terrible. Trey White looks absolutely cooked.
He's too slow to react to kind of complex routes.
So he tends to get lost in coverage that was
never a problem with Trey White, but it has been
recently. So with those pieces, I get how, I
mean, it all works together. It's all a symbiotic
system. Taron Johnson also seems to be a step
slower than he has been the past few years. So
when your three corners in front of you as the
safety pair are playing poorly, your partner
in coverage is a second year player who doesn't
look very good or doesn't seem to have a good
knack for it yet. Yeah, if you're the most experienced
veteran coverage player on the field of the back
five, you'd every snap you're trying to figure
out who you have to make right, who's doing the
wrong thing, right? And so I could see him kind
of, part of the reason he's been out of position
is because he's trying to squeeze routes to help
out either Trey White or Christian Benford while
they're getting cooked. Yeah. I don't know if
there's not an easy answer for fixing any of
it because it's all broken right now. It is.
I mean, the reality is, is you need to... The
reality is is you invested a premium pick in
Cole Bishop and he's probably the guy that's
gonna get the benefit of the doubt Which is why
I ask like what's Jordan Hancock's deal because
I feel like Hancock with his versatility his
coverage shops Probably looks better in a pairing
with Cole Bishop than Taylor rep does right?
Yeah. Yeah, I think that's true. Yeah Let's talk
about run defense. You want to talk about run
defense. I sure do I think we're going to see
them go back to playing more nickel. They've
played a ton of base. They've played a ton of
four, three, three linebacker sets. I mean, at
a clip that is, I think, number four in the league,
I think they're over 26%. It's nuts for a team
that plays 88 % nickel in previous seasons. I
think in the bye, McDermott and Babich are going
to be like, F it. Let's go back to basics. If
we're going to get diced up in the run game,
let's at least do it in a way that is going to
set up the guys we do have on the roster for
better success because this is what they were
drafted for. This is what they were signed for
to fit in roles in this nickel defense, not in
the base four three. And I think because of that,
you're going to see far more adaptable rotations
come in with Cam Lewis coming in more. With Doreen
Williams and Shaq Thompson coming in more to
that two linebacker set, you're going to see
far more effective rotations and obvious rundowns
that will maximize that nickel package. But I
think they're going to I think they're going
to throw the base four three into the sun after
the after the five. Well, God, we hope so. And
that's absolutely right, is because having having
three linebackers on the field only matters if
the linebackers are being if that extra linebackers
being more effective than your corner at stopping
the run. That absolutely hasn't been the case.
I trust, even having lost a step and being kind
of a little bit later in his career, I still
trust Taron Johnson better than whatever third
linebacker they're going to get, especially if
the person he's replacing in that lineup is Milano
or Bernard. They have not looked good. And even
though they're probably not, because I think
they're still preferred two linebackers, they
want match up style linebackers are Milano and
Bernard on the field in a nickel set. But she's
it's like one. I mean we talked about this. We've
talked about this so many times their stubbornness
to play the players who are actually effective
in in deference to the thing that they think
it should be on both sides of the ball is so
terrible right like Just like you know they think
that they shouldn't you know for whatever reason
they don't want to do under center play action
passing But we all know, everybody, the simplest
of fans can look at it and be like, wow, that
play really worked, right? And it's the same
thing with watching Shaq Thompson on the football
field. He is their best linebacker, far and away.
100%. He should be starting every game. It doesn't
matter how much money he's getting versus Bernard's
contract or Milano's contract, for that matter.
He should be starting every game at whichever
position he'd prefer to play. And he's a veteran,
so you know he has the capacity to know the defense,
call the defense, communicate, get everybody
lined up. Give him the green dot. Let him go.
Yep, absolutely. I don't want to talk about the
defense anymore. No, I'm done. I'm so done. All
right. All right. OK, let's talk about I kind
of included this in the notes, dude, and I don't
know if you want to hit this yet. I think it's
tied into the trade deadline discussion for the
bills because and this was inspired by a random
threads comment that I saw about how the bills
may not be to an article. I think it was in the
Buffalo News that said the bills might not be
able to be as active at the trade deadline as
they want to be because of cap limitations. And
one of the comments was outside of Josh Allen.
Who the hell are we paying that we don't have
enough cap room? And I went and I, you know,
I love spot track. I love over the cap because
they'll both give you percentage of cap dedicated
to certain position rooms and what the AAV average
annual contract value to each of those position
position rooms has been promised and dude. When
I looked at the bill's cap commitments, I was
blown away. But you can see very clearly why
they don't have a lot of options at the trade
deadline to go after, but they've obviously invested
positions where they're not getting an ROI. As
we know, they gave contract extensions to Shakir,
Benford, Bernard, Rousseau over the course of
the season. I think we could all agree that Shakir
is playing the best out of that group. And even
his performance has been a little bit on the
decline this year. Their AAV in that wide receiver
room, average annual value committed to their
wide receivers is the 14th highest in the league,
top half of the league in the NFL. JJ, do they
have a top 14 wide receiver in that room? No,
no. Do they have a top 20 wide receiver in that
room? Still no, no. I feel like Kaliyah Shakir
is at best between 25 and 30. So, so, and, and
that's taking into context. Like you have teams
like Cincinnati that are paying two wide receivers,
$30 million a year. Right. And they're not too
far off from the bills and total cap expenditures
in a wide receiver room or percentage of cap
committed to the position. And this is the thing.
And you touched on this earlier in the year where
the bills have committed themselves to this.
upper middle class, upper middle class tier of
contract expenditures. They don't have a lot
of guys on rookie contracts that are producing
right now. And they have a lot of guys that are
average to slightly above average talent, making
that middle tier, upper middle tier money. And
when we see each of these contracts come through,
we're like, that's great value for that guy,
right? Or, oh wow, that Clue Shakir deal, like
they're only paying him as the 35th highest paid
whiteout. But then when you bundle, The 14th
top contract here, the 15th top contract here,
it adds up in nickel and dimes over time. Dude,
the edge room is top 10 in AAV. That's our, we
are not getting top 10 production out of that
edge room. The cornerback room, because of how
many vets they have signed and because they have
tried and failed through Kair Elam, Dorian Strong,
like they have not been able to maximize rookies
that they have, have drafted in that position
other than Benford. is number six in the league
commitment of AAV according to spot track for
2025. The reason why Chris Olave, Rashi Shahid,
AJ Brown are not options for this team to trade
for from a fiscal perspective is they have so
much money tied up in these positions already.
Yeah, no, they they spend a lot of money on average
to slightly above average players in all these
positions. And the moneyball approach works in
situations where where the aggregate of all your
players is counted on every play at their best.
And it's where they play their best every play.
Right. Like when you have if you could guarantee
that all the skill position players on your offense
who make above middle of the pack money are going
to deliver a middle of the pack rep. or above
middle of the pack rep on every snap, it's a
worthwhile value. The problem is people who are
just above average lose reps to elite talent
more often than they win by a huge measure. They
might lose 85 % of their reps and man up coverage
on a route run as a wide receiver because they're
just above average. And so I think that, you
know, we... This is the biggest problem, and
I think it's leveraged more in those positions
that depend so heavily on one -on -one wins,
like wide receiver, like edge rusher. What else?
Any defensive lineman, really? Cornerback, right?
Number 10 in the league and committed AAV to
that position, mostly because of Daquan Jones
at Oliver's contracts, right? Right. Yeah, so
in all of those situations, if you were... You
know, player is, is a just above average talent
and they're going to lose most of the reps to
elite. You're wasting your money, um, by not
just having some scrub in there to breathe and
hold a paycheck, um, because they're losing the
same amount of reps. Maybe not as terribly, but.
And you know, they've been given such a gift
in the way that Josh Allen has structured this
contract with this team right now. He has only,
he has only as far as percentage of cap taken
up this season. He's only 11th in the league
amongst active QBs like his yes, you've got to
pay him his money and yes That's a massive cap
hit year after year But relative to like what
the Dolphins are paying Tua and both cash and
cap every year how the Joe burrow extension was
was constructed in Cincinnati, huh? Trevor Lawrence
the Trevor like Josh gave them pretty much the
most team friendly elite QB contract in the history
of the league. So they could be able to figure
out other positions. And it just feels like a
lot of a lot of bets, like you said, on high
floor, low ceiling, safe, but not elite, safe,
but not needle moving talent. And you got you
got to wonder how long that strategy is going
to continue to last. It won't. And also their
their unwillingness to to like kind of sell the
farm to move up in the draft. You know, a lot
of the, Brandon being an apologist, including
myself has made the argument before that picking
between 25 and 32 is not where you're going to
be able to get a needle moving top, you know,
top wide receiver talent, top pass rushing talent
that you got to get up into the top 15, top 10.
Yeah, that's that's true. But do that, then you
do it right. Exactly. That's the point is like
this whole sense of we're going to trade down
and get value and use the shotgun approach to
try to get somebody from rounds two to seven
who's really going to, you know, pop and make
a difference. It's great that you can occasionally
find a Khalil Shakir or, you know, a Christian
Benford who I'm not completely out on, but I'm
worried about. You know, there's there's talented
players down in the draft, but at such a much
lower rate, we know, year over year, your pro
bowlers are all going to be picked in the first
round, right? Like, for the most part. Dude,
it's tried and true. If you are going to commit
this much cap space to veteran extensions, veteran
free agent signings, and you're going to pay
a QB what you're paying Josh Allen, you cannot
afford to miss on the draft. And this is a team
I still this is a team that Breet Bean is so
good about walking into every draft year with
extra draft capital. Like in 2024, the Kian Coleman
Cole Bishop year, there is no reason in that
year, you needed to pick 10 rookies. There's
no reason you need to make 10 draft picks. You
could have bundled up and done the Troy Franklin
thing, like we were advocating for, bundled up
and gone up and gotten a Tanner Bordolini. Both
players who further respective squads are starting
to come around. Bordellini has been starting
since he was a rookie for Indy. He's got his
warts, but the reps are there and he's solid.
And then Franklin is finding his footing in Denver
with Bo Nix of all people. Right. Right. Like,
yeah. Brian Thomas Jr. He was in striking range.
They could have put something together to go
up and get him. Would not have cost a lot based
on where he fell. Yes. And it he I believe would
make a difference in his offense. He wouldn't
it would not be the same as the key on Coleman
who's been kind of hit or miss and doesn't seem
seems to be mismatched to the role that they
want him to play. Did you see the and this will
be a perfect transition in the trade deadline.
So so we talk about the cap commitment stuff
not so that we can rag on Brandon being his ability
to build a roster because the the floor of the
roster is still very high. This is still a 10
win team. because of how being his short stuff
up. But at this point, talking about the Bills
as a 10 win team is no longer a point of pride
because we have, they laid the expectation out
at the beginning of the season that 10 wins without
a Superbowl was not going to be enough. They
wanted to move up and get over the hump. We are
showcasing this for two reasons. One, this does
not look like a personnel set that's ready to
get over the hump. But two, The way they have
structured contracts, cash and cap, where they've
committed money to this season and next season
is restricting them from really going after aggressively
at this trade deadline for the positions they
really need to, which is wide receiver, safety,
and potentially cornerback, depending on what
Max Hairston looks like. So JJ, that being said,
while they are restricted with what they can
do, they can still do a couple of things. What
is what do you think the bills will do? What
do you want them to do? And what position do
you think they're going to target? All right.
I don't think they will do anything. I think
the same thing. Yeah, I don't think they're going
to do anything. I don't think they're going to
trade for anybody. I think that they may trade
away a Japanese. But I don't think they're going
to trade for anybody. They might even trade away
Matt Milano if anyone would be willing to take
him for a seventh rounder, right? Like, but they
just don't have, they don't have the depth and
they've had too many injuries to make me believe
they're going to be sellers in any way because
they are, they believe in, you know, as they
should, they can compete for a Super Bowl this
year. And so it's a little bit of a different
landscape for them. So I could see Bean making
a move, maybe Alec Anderson, because Jackson
Hawes has panned out as an excellent, you know,
but Alec Anderson has been called up for game
action to replace any of the three interior line
spots. So unless it's selling away a depth piece
because the deal is just too good and a team's
calling, I don't see them doing anything, actually,
because the cap isn't there. The viable talent
isn't there. Well, how about you? Is there anybody
that you could see, you know, worthwhile? Cam
Taylor Britt? Maybe. I mean, he's kind of a reclamation
project at this point, right? He's not good.
I see them doing more of a Puna Ford type of
thing, which he was assigning at the trade deadline.
I don't think he was a trade. Justin Simmons
is out there. Stefan Gilmore is out there. There
are some veteran pieces that you can add. that
are still available via free agency where the
cap hits would be something that you could structure
under the bill's current restrictions for 2025,
not have the long -term commitment into 2026.
I could actually see at the trade deadline them
being veteran free agent signing guys. Bean is
so loathe to give up draft capital these days
and Listen, we just said it like even though
there's not gonna be a lot of viable roster spots
for a rookie to take next year They're gonna
have some holes and beans gonna need to address
them in the draft again Because they're not gonna
have a ton of cap room to work with in 2026 either
So I don't think they're gonna give up a ton
of draft capital. But if they were willing to
I'd like to see them target potentially a safety.
I mean, can we pry? Like I look at, I look at
the Las Vegas Raiders and I see, I see Jeremy
Chin playing really, really well. And he's a
guy we've coveted in free agency for the past
couple of years. Like how's a fifth rounder,
right? Is he on the, uh, is he on the last year
of his deal? I believe, I believe he signed a
one year deal with them. Okay. Yeah. So I think
Chin's a possibility. I mean, if you are looking
to upgrade at linebacker, How does a Jamal Adams
strike you he made the transition from safety
to linebackers played really well in Las Vegas
I just for whatever reason so here's the reason
why I'm on Las Vegas Las Vegas Raiders my son
Jack who is perpetually the antagonist in my
life He he is wants to root for any team that
is not the bills because he knows I like the
bills. Yeah, that's a bummer I'm so afraid Dude,
if he wasn't six, I would kick him out of the
house. But I can't because he's right. That's
child abandonment. I don't want to get arrested.
Yeah, exactly. No. And I love him. He's he's
your child. You love him. Right. Yeah. So he
so he goes to me. He's like, Daddy, I'm going
to root for two teams. I'm like, what are those
two teams, Jack? He goes, the Raiders. And then
Jets. And I'm like, both will bring you nothing
but pain. I said, and I've got a friend named
Jared who might want to talk you off the lab,
right? Jets is a bad idea. We know someone. But
I've got like the NFL channel. So like a queue
up Raiders games for him and stuff. So I've watched
a lot of Raiders games and Chan and Adams look
great. They look great. I'd like both of those
guys and they won't cost you a lot. And they're
both on one year deals. Okay. I can be convinced.
I can be convinced of a lot of things. I think
they need help. I think they need help too. But
listen, wide receiver is the big ticket. We went
for a Murray Cooper last year. I don't think
the wide receiver market is as rife with hope
as other areas of the trade market are for the
bills just because of salary cap restrictions.
Do you see them making them play for a wide?
Look, I know you don't think they're gonna do
anything. So let me rephrase Yeah, if they were
able to squeeze squeeze out a wide receiver at
the deadline Who would you want that person to
be based on names that have been bandied about?
Well, if we're just gonna play fantasy land,
you know GM return Rashid Shaheed or Chris Olave
from the Saints are like the only names that
I'm even Is is is one of the ones that people
talk about Jackson Smith and Jigma? Is that a
is he a possible no? No. Oh, God, no. He's leading
the league. He's a cornerstone, right? He's leading
the league in yards. He's on pace to break Calvin
Johnson's single -season record. Seattle's not
giving him up. Yeah. So, I mean, exactly that.
There's no wide receiver out there that's not
like a washed vet that I think the Bills... They
might as well sign Tyler Lockett as a vet. free
agent. He just got released from yes. Yeah, they
might as well sign him if they're looking for
somebody because giving up a draft asset for
some veteran who's pretty terrible is not the
answer. And nobody nobody with a lot of skills
is available. I can guarantee that is the guy
because I'm I am I don't think Olave and Shahid
are ultimately going to get dealt. I just I don't
I think New Orleans wants to keep both. Well,
they're they're young and talented. Like, there's
no reason to move on from them. If you're even
if you're a team that's going to lose the season
out like homegrown products and you're about
to enjoy either for the next four or five years
on a rookie QB deal. Right. So, yeah, you resign
those guys. Can I interest you in a Romeo doubts
out of Green Bay? And here's the reason he he's
in the last year of his contract. He is coming
back coming back from injury his ESPN open score
fourth best in the league since his return He
is a deep threat yards per outrun. Not great.
He's right around 1 .9 2 yards per outrun Catches
everything right and he is the go -to for Jordan
love in that offense. However, they've drafted
Matthew Golden They've got financial decisions
to make about Reid and Watson. That's a very
full wide receiver room And Douds is young. Is
there a possibility that you could get a young
downfield threat for Josh Allen to work with
for like a third? Right. I think you've just
presented a reality to me that I had not considered
and I would 100 % do that. I mean, watching Green
Bay games and Romeo Dubs, who also just, I don't
know why I just like his name. It's a good name.
It's a fun name. Douds. It's a fun name. Douds.
There's so many puns. There's so many things
you could play off with that. That's exactly
where I was going with it. I'm like, dude, you're
the pun analogy king on this pod. Wherefore art
thou, Romeo? Can we, like, can we please just
start opening up, you know, any Shakespeare references
in our podcasting? Like, then I've got a whole
world. I was an AP English dude. I've got a world
of Shakespeare references I can make if Romeo
dobs is on this team. Just do it. But here's
what I think holds that deal back. Jordan Love
really loves throwing to him. That's like his
security blanket, right? And that's, that's the
thing. It wasn't, isn't it like Thurden Daub's
is like in Green Bay and he is, he is that team's
Cole Bishop in his, or Cole Beasley. I was just
going to say the same thing. He is Cole. He is
the Cole Beasley. He's their Cole Beasley in
his prime. Yeah. Yeah. So, but it's a team you've,
it's an organization you've done business with
before. And I mean, if you pay him, you're not
going to pay Watson, you're not going to pay
Reed. And then what are you going to do with
Golden when, because he's looked pretty good
in his rookie season. Like, what are you going
to do with him down the road if you're going
to commit big money to Dow? So I think it could
be a sneaky good move for the Bills to do. And
it's not a name that Bills Mafia is like a sexy
name for Bills Mafia. but you put him into this
offense right away. Unlike a Chris Olave, who
is a true number one and is going to command
targets to maximize value. You can drop downs
into this offense. He fixes a lot of the ills
you have across the alignment and he's not going
to command a ton of targets away from guys like
Shakira. He also strikes me as the type of player
who wouldn't mind getting his hands dirty with
gritty run blocking. It's a, it's a, he comes
from a Matt LaFleur offense. Yes. It's a skill
of his. Yeah. Yes. Without a doubt. Yeah. I mean,
you, you did it. You, you found a name that I
would be like absolutely in on for the trade
deadline, even for a third. Yeah. I would do
it for a third. Cause I mean, what, what the
hell are we going to do with our third round
pick, right? We're going to pick another Dwayne
Carter. Dude. Oh God. I love, can I just tell
you though, Dwayne's Instagram is so entertaining.
because he does all these food spots about like
fat dudes love to eat, right? He's a pretty good
cook too. I just, man, I liked Wayne Carter.
I think you've just identified what he'll do
after he flames out of the league. Jesus Christ.
Open a food blog. That was not an intentional
softball, but I nonetheless gave you one. Well,
and that's I'm being a jerk. I'm being kind of
a bully. He's injured right now, but I just looking
at him in preseason before the injury came up,
I was like, whoops, he's not going to do it.
Oh, man. All right. We are we are winding it
down here, dude. Where do you want to go? I've
got a couple of other areas we could go. Obviously,
we got to eventually get to this Panthers game.
But because it was the bye week, typically what
we do when we're on our normal recording schedule
is we will give a lay of the land for our listeners
about where the rest of the AFC currently sits
and how it could or could not impact the bills
when they come back from their buy. You want
to do a little bit of that and then get into
the Panthers? Yeah, let's let's hit the kind
of AFC as a whole this in the league and then
and then do a very quick, you know, Panthers
preview. Sounds good. All right. Indianapolis
Colts. Let's start there because they are currently
the one seed in the AFC behind Danny Dimes, Daniel
Jones, who looks absolutely resurgent with solid
personnel around him and an innovative play caller
in Shane Steichen. how nice that must be for
Danny Dimes, who also because of the innovative
creative play calling of his play caller, hits
his first read on a 71 % play, which is highest
in the league. Which it's like it is just like
if anybody needs to know how much offensive coordinating
and game planning matters, just look at that
team. It's not like he magically became a super
hyper elite talent at the quarterback position.
It is that he has somebody in his corner who
is creating a situation for his skill set where
he almost can't get it wrong. Finding the right
answer with the football is easy in that offense.
Despite his best efforts, because I've watched
a lot of indie tape, and he'll still make three
or four throws downfield a game that you're like,
man, that should be a pick. Yeah, that's a turnover
where they play. Right. But no, to your point,
the scheme matters. It maximizes all of the things
that Jones does well, great complementary run
game, stout offensive line, and oh yeah, they
use play -action to create opportunities across
the middle of the field and the short to intermediate
areas for their QB to make easy throws. God,
can we do play -action? Let's just pause for
a moment and talk about how Brian Dable maybe
isn't an offensive genius like he received the
praise of being after QB whispering Josh Allen
into an exceptional talent. I think that Josh
Allen was going to be an exceptional talent regardless
of who his offensive coordinator was, and Dable
rode his coattails to a head coaching job. Okay.
And listen, I like Dayball. Me and Logan talked
about this during the bi -week when he came on
to do his radiating praise of Jackson Dart, which
we both did. We both broke down Dart and we were
really impressed. But I asked him, I'm like,
dude, is Dayball your guy? And he's like, no.
He said, I think what Dart does... Like he doesn't
necessarily do outside of coaching, but he's
definitely not doing it because of Dayball is
doing anything unique. Dar is just playing off
of his skill set and talent and Kafka is doing
a really good job designing that scheme. Yep.
Is Brian Dayball the hot headed temperamental
version of Adam Gase? Oh, that is such an interesting
way to go with this. Gase only having ever been
good with Peyton Manning, Dable only ever having
been good with Josh Allen. Is he simply just
a more charismatic, more angry version of Adam
Gase? I mean, probably with way less high on
shrooms press conferences. I don't know, man.
Dable is maybe on LSD for some of his press conferences.
Okay, yeah. So they both like to take a psychedelic
here and there before a press conference. That's
fine, too. That's not the extent of the limitation
of their things in common. Like you said, elite
quarterback gave them elite reputation, and they
haven't been able to prove it anywhere else.
This is true. This is true. So yeah, it could
be a real thing But the Giants JJ are not on
the AFC nor are they competitors for the AFC?
So so moving on from Indy we have a very familiar
team to us The Kansas City Chiefs who that offense
looks scary and as we talked about earlier, they
have they have again Andy Reid creatively reinventing
himself as an offensive play caller Absolutely
cooking in the run game at this point dialing
up play action at a record rate for him. I mean,
this offense is, it looks like the same old Chiefs
from an output standpoint, but when we actually
look at what they're putting on film, it's just
Andy Reid getting deep into his playbook in his
bag and they're doing stuff we have not seen
this Chiefs team do in a very long time. Yeah,
I mean, yeah, it's it's basically the they spent
the first three or four weeks the season with
no No appreciable run game and then it he just
decided he was done with that and turned on found
a run game and And the play action to you know
out of run run sets to over -the -top fast wide
receiver targets is It's what we dream of in
the Buffalo Bills fandom, right? Wow, that looks
like a scheme that would work for us, too That
looks like fun for your generational QB. Yeah,
and it's just like, okay, we have Curtis Samuel.
Khalil Shakir is not a deep speed guy, but he
can do some things, you know, deep crosser wise.
It's just like, why do you have this ability?
And seemingly we could do the same thing and
we just choose not to, right? Like that's the
thing. It's a choice. And here's the thing, after
they... God, because we're always trailing the
historic wake of the Kansas City Chiefs. They
trade Tyreek Hill, and they win a Super Bowl,
right? And they decide, you know what, we can
just go with a collection of guys. And then immediately
after they win their second Super Bowl with that
Tyreek Hill, they start to see sort of the margins
fray a little bit on that plan, and they immediately
try to get... more help in for for Patrick Mahomes
or like we do need more speed. We do need more
versatility enter rice as a draft pick a couple
years later enter worthy as a draft pick and
you see what and signing of Hollywood Brown and
you see what they're building to this just happens
to be the first moment due to injury due to legal
issues that these three guys have been on the
field at the same time But this is something
they've been building towards for a couple of
years Now, sorry, go ahead. Yeah. Just to jump
in and interrupt you very rudely. And two wide
receivers they traded up for. Yes. Sorry. One
of them, most notably with our guys. Yeah. Bills,
right? There'll always be a point of comparison
for poor Kian Coleman, no matter where he goes.
So then the bills, they're like, you know what?
The chiefs did that. We could do that too. Trade
Stefan Diggs. everybody eats, have a bunch of
guys, right? And they still seem to be slow to
learn the lesson that the chiefs learned while
winning that we have failed to learn while losing
to the chiefs. That maybe you actually do need
some speed, versatility and athleticism. And
you can't just have a bunch of carbon copy cutouts
of a bunch of slot guys to make up your wide
receiver room, right? Man, it's just it's it's
killer stuff. Oh, by the way. Did you, I tried
to talk about this with Brandon, he didn't care.
Did you hear the Chief's new wide receiver motto?
No. Everybody gotta eat. Oh really? That's hilarious.
I shit you not. EGE. Yep. Travis Kelsey was talking
about it on his podcast. Him and Jason were breaking
down the everybody gotta eat mentality. Okay.
And I'm like, oh, you bastards. And that's the
thing about the Chiefs, even when they win. They're
just trolling other people because that's the
stuff that gets them up in the morning for their
games, right? They are trolling the Buffalo Bills.
They're just here. They're just here to kind
of hang out until the postseason, right? Like
the regular season is an afterthought. I hate
them. I really they are now in a hateable team
category for me. Speaking of hateable teams,
let's talk about the Patriots. JJ, you and I.
Oh, thank you. I'm cooking on the segues tonight.
I hate the Patriots. We suffered for them for
20 years. This was supposed to be our time. And
lo and behold, the Patriots have found their
diet Josh Allen and Drake May. And that's not
an insult, Patriots fans. Like he does everything.
He does a lot of stuff that Josh does good. He's
just a little bit smaller. He's a little bit
younger. I don't think he's going to hurt all
over guys when he's in the open field. Right.
But there is a lot of what he can do, particularly
when pressure that is a reminder of young Josh
Allen. Um, and they're really well coached JJ.
I put the Brandon put this question to me. I'm
going to put it to you as Mike variable, the
best coach in the AFC East as we speak. I don't
think you could declare that at this time. And
that's because Vrabel has a pretty spotty, if
not kind of terrible postseason record. And I
think that that matters. If you're going to rate
coaches, you have to rate them when it really
matters in crunch time in the postseason. And
Vrabel has had some front running type teams
he's brought into the postseason when he was
with the Titans, who kind of puked all over themselves.
Sober assessment. Did he ever lose a game to
the Chiefs with 13 seconds left on the clock?
No, he did not. Yes, so I point taken. My assessment
was and it was not a I did not launch into a
fire McDermott spiral. But like when you look
for culture builder, team organizer, Max maximizes
talent on the roster. Listen, man. We forget
those those Titans teams ravaged by injury season
after season. Ryan Tannehill at QB, like when
you ultimately look at what variable was dragging
into the postseason for those couple of years,
he made it with the Titans. Dude, they were rosters
that were a shell of themselves. That guy is
able to maximize talent unlike any coach, I think
currently in our division. And that is why I
give him the edge over a guy like McDermott,
who we just spent Good 45 minutes at the beginning
of this pod talking about how they are so scheme
rigid and not not not Accepting enough of how
they can scheme for talent right scheme for their
dudes Dude Frabel let's his guys cook right there
is structure. There is organization But all of
it is taking into account what his guys on the
field are gonna succeed at right? Yeah And that's
why that's why I gave him the edge. But yeah,
you're not wrong and I But again, and I think
that, you know, in a reality where he has a really
strong, that's the other thing. That's the thing
that I think, you know, you're kind of talking
me into it. Frabel's also coaching, he's coached
the Patriots to this point of the season to the
first place in the FC East with what I would
still consider a pretty poor roster. They have
not rebuilt this thing completely. Like they
hit on the QB, but their wide receiver core is
like old and, you know, not super, you know,
effective and They've kind of patched it together
in some ways on their offensive line. So, yeah.
I mean, I'm worried about it. It's tough, right?
Yeah. It's tough. It shouldn't be this much of
a debate for a guy who's only been in the division
for six games. Or seven games. It shouldn't be
this much of a debate. But it's also, you're
comparing it to the Buffalo Bills who have Sean
McDermott who has done nothing but fail against
the Chiefs in the playoffs with quote unquote
his defense. Right. I mean, that's the thing.
Yeah. I mean, I hear a lot of, there's a lot
of chatter that like in the off season, we should,
if the bills fail again in the post season or
God forbid, don't make it to the post season.
You don't fire McDermott you, but you mandate
kind of like what, uh, Howie Roseman did with
Nick Sirianni a couple of years ago. You need
to bring in coordinators that are not you. You
need to bring in coordinators that are anti your
philosophy, right? Um, but we don't have the
personnel to do that. Like this, this personnel
has been built for McDermott system. You're not
going to bring in like, uh, like a Jesse mentor
or you're not going to bring in like, um, um,
uh, Mike Flores. And all of a sudden you're going
to have this high blitz man coverage scheme,
right? Um, you don't have the talent for it,
right? It's not going to be that easy. Like McDermott
and McDermott's DNA is up and down this roster.
It's not just about changing out the the coordinators
at this point, right? Yeah, man, but the Patriots
are in first place They've got a cupcake schedule
down moving on. They are not a great team to
your point. This is a team with some holes, but
they are the ones that the Bills need to chase
at this point. Yep. Steelers, I think we can
just say that the defense is still pretty scary.
Aaron Rodgers is going to throw two or three
pickable balls a game. And if you're the Buffalo
Bills, you got to take advantage of that, right?
You got to catch those balls. Any other any other
also rams you want to talk about, like the chart,
like there's the Chargers, their offensive line
is kind of a mess that might get healthy. Bo
Nix only really seems to play for 12 good minutes
a game. Yeah. Yeah. Although if, although if
it's the fourth quarter he had against the Giants
where he puts up 33 points, that is kind of scary,
right? He, yeah, he's such a high variance quarterback.
He can do like he seemingly can do the Josh Allen
last five minutes against the Ravens in any nine
to 10 minute span of any game. It's just the
consistency. And it's the same thing. I mean,
he's still young, so he has talent. And I think
that he's probably going to be pretty good. Yeah.
I mean, I don't have much to say about any of
those other teams, I think, other than the season
is long, right? Like we saw a lot of teams, six,
seven, eight games into the season last year
who you're like, oh, they're toast. They're cooked.
Even it wasn't the chiefs were in like pretty
poor position in the first four or five games
of the season and turned it around. And so The
Ravens, I think, are the team that I'm the least
worried about because the Bills have a head -to
-head against them. And with Lamar Jackson's
injury and with some of the other injuries they've
piled up, they look like they're pretty vulnerable
in their own division. They're at the bottom
of their own division right now. So it's a matter
of, you know, as Lamar Jackson, I think he's
supposed to come back this weekend. We'll see.
But if he's slow to come back or, you know, God
forbid for them, he injures himself again or,
you know, reaggravates something. They're in
tough shape of making the postseason. Dude, yeah.
Oh, I said Mike Flores. I meant Brian Flores.
Brian Flores. I thought you did. I was like,
I just assumed that you just had so much more
coaching knowledge than I did. I was like, I
don't know who Mike Flores is. Isn't that a guy
on the end? Now what's talk if I wanted to get
fancy out of front out Kelvin Shepherd who's
doing an Amazing job with that's not too fancy
because I tracked that guy's whole career and
he is he's been awesome He's the line goods that
guy is the goods. Oh my god. God. I wish I had
we had somebody Oh my god. Anyways. All right.
Yeah, I agree Are you ready to move into a very
quick preview of the Carolina Panthers? Because
we've been cooking here for a while, and it's
time to land this plane. All right, man, Carolina
Panthers, I'm just going to give you the overalls
on this one. We'll talk about some quick matchups
here. I mean, listen, the Bills are favored by
seven in this game. F you, Vegas, that's all
I have to say. Stop giving the Bills these big
spreads. The over -under is a little bit lower
than it has been in the past few Bills games,
46 and a half. This is an indication to me that
for whatever reason, based on no proof whatsoever
of Buffalo Bill's play, that they think they're
going to hold the four and three Carolina Panthers
to a lower scoring affair on defense. Listen,
man, the Panthers are plucky. They're three and
one in close games, games decided by one score
or less. And I mean, they've got some dudes,
Derrick Brown, Rico on the defensive side, Rico
Doddle, Chuba Hubbard, whether or not it's Dalton
or Bryce Young. Dalton's gonna get the ball out
of his hands quick. I actually think that's a
slightly worse matchup for the Bills It's one
of those situations where people looking at the
game and going like oh the Bills are gonna Pull
a backup QB for this one. I don't know if that's
better. I don't think that's a good Yeah, I don't
think it's a good thing I think a young Bryce
Young is a little bit of a better matchup for
the Bills and for McDermott's defense than Andy
Dalton Who's just gonna try to deal to them to
the best answer with the football as fast as
he can And that is exactly the kryptonite for
this defense is like they do not have press man
capabilities. They do not have tight coverage
within the first three or four seconds of a play
structure. And that is that is dice you up territory
for this team. Dice you up and then run you with
two really capable running backs. And listen,
man, the formula that that has beaten the bills
the past couple of weeks. Shut down James Cook.
shut down the run and make the Buffalo Bills
wide receiver room beat you. Yeah. The Panthers
can absolutely replicate. They have allowed only
a 29 .6 % success rate. on opposing team rushes
this season, and a second only to the Cleveland
Browns. This is a team that lives off stuffing
the run. They've got JC Horn on the outside.
They've got some plucky other guys in that secondary.
And this is a team that's competing for their
division. They're looking to go five and three.
Listen the Buffalo Bills are a lot of these teams
Super Bowl. They're they're measuring stick game
And this is another team that the bills are going
to be playing it's going to come in with high
energy a young coach Lots of talented pieces
around with a scheme that matches I think this
one's going to be trouble for the Bills. Well,
it's it's in some ways it's a lot like this feels
a lot like the Atlanta Falcons in that this is
a team that's been picking in the top 10 for
the past several years. And some of those young,
talented top 10 players are starting to come
into their own. You know, I think that it was
I think it was the the beat reporter for the
Panthers who was on one bills live who said that
J .C. Horne looked like he was playing board
this season because they just weren't throwing
at him. And then when teams chose to, when the
Jets chose to throw at him, he bagged two interceptions
in the second half last week. So like it's, it's
not, if you're asking what things are bad for
the Buffalo Buzz offense, it's teams that are
good at stuffing the run and teams that have
elite outside corners. And that's it. And end
of list. Then you have Nick Scowerton, who looks
like he's a steal of a pickup where they got
him in the draft. coming off the edge, you know,
it's one of those things. I don't know if you
get this, but I get this all the time where I'm
just like, is Brandon being like really, really
bad at drafting? Because like all these teams
are getting elite. You know what I mean? Like,
I know, I know. We always praise him for being
able to find solid role playing, contributing
players who are starting caliber in any round
of the draft. But it just seems like the bills.
never, other than maybe Dalton Kincaid, it's
like they don't ever find a stud. Josh Allen,
James Cook, Dalton Kincaid, end of list. End
of list. Like, you could say Ed Oliver is well
above average, is like, is in the top tier defensive
tackles individual talent -wise, but he was like,
what, the eighth or ninth pick in the draft?
Like, that's where he's supposed to be. No, without
a doubt. I don't I don't I don't we've gone so
negative in this pod. I don't listen man the
the bill I've been I've said listen man like
12 times in this I'm like because I'm trying
to talk myself into into believing in this team
I'm not a dark place. I know I'm not saying listen
man to you. I'm literally coaxing myself like
hey listen, man It can be okay. Yeah, it could
be okay I mean the reality of the success of
this team has been that they've been to the playoffs
in consecutive years It's been a run of success
we haven't seen since you and I were kids with
this team, right? And that is not divorced from
the GM's roster building ability, right? At some
point, yes, we've got a generational QB, but
other stuff's got to work around him. And Bean
has made more stuff work than he has not worked.
I think the past two years of drafts, you could
even go three if you wanted to, It's been lean
that 2424 draft listen You cannot afford to whiff
on 10 picks if you are paying a QB like this
if you are Signing guys to mid -level extensions
like you're signing like the bills are you cannot
afford to whiff on on 10 picks? But if you take
the totality of beans draft history He's built
a roster that's won five straight AFC championships
and has been on the cusp of a Super Bowl. That's
That is good GM in generally, right? Fine, you're
right All right, but yes and listen if you were
to give brain, I mean listen, maybe the better
way to Listen man, I know I'm like listen now
I'm talking myself out of it If you were to give
Brandon being the amount of top ten picks that
like let's say the Falcons had sure Do you have
the confidence in being that who would be able
to identify? The level of talent needed to build
a superstar roster That's maybe a better question
because we know across seven rounds. He's a great
draft He's a great drafter sure, but in those
premium picks those first hundred hundred picks
He's had a lot. That's where all that's where
almost all of his misses are So if Brandon Bean
were to draft in the top ten, do we have any
confidence that he could draft an elite roster?
Maybe that uh, so let's look at his top ten draft
picks at Oliver Josh Allen. Yeah Yeah, yeah,
you're right. You're right. Yeah. Yeah, like
those are the only two Yeah, I mean, but let's
like expand upon that to other first -round picks
Kyrie alum see but why would we because where
he took when he took Kyrie alum if he was in
the top 20s Yeah, if he was in the top 10, he
would add JC horn This is true. But would he
have drafted JC horn? That's like, we don't know.
I don't know, man. We don't know because he's
never been there. But we should know. We should
know. We should know that if you're in the top
10, you would draft to Marchase. Right. Yeah.
And not like Nelson Elglo or Aguilar. Right.
Well, and that's the thing. It's like it's the
what if machine. Like, you know, can we go back
and give the Bills a top five selection in the
past three years and see what they take? It's
so unhelpful. It's so unhelpful. All right. Let's
let's get off this downward spiral. All right.
Let's let's do our own. Oh, you go ahead. I was
going to do another fun segue. Oh, go for it.
I don't want to break that. But speaking of what
if machines, what if the Bills end up losing
this game to the Carolina Panthers? To Mark,
the first time that Sean McDermott has lost off
of by and the first time his entire tenure with
the Bills that he's had a three game losing streak.
Those are the two things that would. I mean,
at that point. At that point, I think there are
parts of Bill's mafia that literally fold up
their folding tables and put them away. They're
not even jumping through anymore. They slowly
wipe off their Bill's face paint and put on a
buttoned up shirt and go to their office job.
Oh, man. Oh, my God. I listen, I think the bills
are going to win. But in the range of outcomes
for this game, I mean, I think a loss is I think
a loss is higher probability than Vegas wants
to admit. Oh, I think so, too. I think it's completely
reasonable. I'm I'm in a world where it's a coin
flip. Like, I don't think there's any guarantee
that the bills are going to pull this one out.
I think that it's it's a situation where the
in the same ways that the defense is built in
a way that perfectly counteracts the bills offense.
their offense is built in a way that absolutely
destroys the Bills defense. Two capable runners
in Chuba Hubbard and Rico Dowdell, a solid wide
receiver core, the best tight end from this entire
draft class who was picked in the fifth round.
so far, right? Out of Notre Dame, Mitchell Evans.
And yeah, so it's a situation where you look
at this team and it's like, I can see why they're
on a three -game heater and just chomping at
the bit to play somebody who's considered a contender
so that they can validate their rise. And so
yeah, I am in no way chalking this one up. Michael
Hoyt, Larry Ogunjobi, potentially Max Harrison,
could see snaps, could see reps in this game.
And these are the reinforcements we have been
told, be patient, be patient. Wait till we have
all of our guys back on defense. Terrell Bernard,
limited in practice. Matt Milano, limited. Rapp
did not practice. I'm actually okay with that
if he doesn't play at this point. I'm ready to
see Jordan Hancock in that role. Jokes on you,
it's going to be Jordan Poirier in that role.
Best I can do is a 32 -year -old Jordan Poirier.
Jesus Christ. Oh, my God. I know, and Bill's
fans are clamoring for Gabe Davis, too. Have
we forgotten how things ended with both of these
guys? But anyways, what if any impact do you
think Hoyt, Ogunjobi, and Harrison may have if,
let's assume all three get snaps? Ogunjobi, minimal.
I think he was rotational at best. I think he's
probably just a hair better than Jordan Phillips
at this point in his career. So, Ogunjobi is
maybe an okay contribution, but no needle mover
there. I could see Hoyt showing up just from
the way he looked in pre -season, showing up
out of the gate, bagging two sacks and giving
everyone in Bill's Mafia. this like bright ray
of hope that we have a defensive stud that we
found on the free agent heap, right? Second coming
of Bruce Smith. Right. Yeah. I can, I can see,
no, the better comp, and this is going to dig
pretty deep back into the annals is second coming
of Bryce Pop. Ooh, okay. Yes. Defensive player
of the year. He benefited from being lined up
across from or around Bruce Smith. I see that
situation where defenses are paying a lot more
attention to Joey Bosa and a now healthy Greg
Rousseau. And then Hoyt has the opportunity to
kind of like, especially if he's rushing on the
interior or they bump Rousseau inside, man, Hoyt
could eat up at that point. Do you think they're
gonna, I mean, the beauty of Hoyt in the LA defense
was that... They lined him up pretty much everywhere.
He didn't take a ton of traditional edge snaps.
He played a lot of outside linebacker. I think
the Rams ran a three, four last year base defense,
but he was basically able to be that, that fourth
or fifth pass rusher or provide you with that
odd man front from the outside linebacker positions.
Do you, I mean, I just, you know, Earlier on
the pod. I said, you know what? I think the bills
are done with base. Maybe they go to nickel,
but do you think they run more of a quote unquote
base package with Hoyt is like the Sam linebacker,
right? And then all of a sudden he becomes the
fifth man on your front. And now you've got Rousseau
Hoyt rushing from the same side. Bosa rushing
from the other to create opportunities. I can
absolutely see that because I think in the same
way that I think the defensive design Babbage
had in mind when he started the season was that.
And it was a, let's use Dorian Williams. Remember
like Dorian Williams got the start in the 4 -3
to start the season, played very poorly for the
first two weeks. was taken out of favor and then
brought back because of injuries and has played
better, thankfully. But I think that the initial
defensive design was we're going to get by with
Dorian Williams in that 4 -3 position as like
the positionless rusher type. And until we get
Hoyt back, because I think that's how they intend
to use him, exactly how you describe. And in
the same way that it was going to be like, oh,
Hairston's on an island, Benford is playing the
QB watching zone. they had to have Benford play
on an island with Trey doing the QB watching
zone. It's not worked, right? I think that that's
part of the whole, hey, everybody have patience,
reinforcements are coming, right? Because the
sense is for this defense, when we get Hoyt and
Hairston back and then even Ogunjobi to some
extent to eat up, because Ogunjobi is good in
terms of that Daquan Jones whole plugger, keep
bodies, keep your linebackers clean. place that's
I mean that's all he did when he was with with
the Steelers and so I can see him the Bengals
I can see him playing in that in that kind of
role and so yeah I would say absolutely expect
to see more 4 -3 with Hoyt but expect it to be
a missed like a mix simulated pressure so four
guys are common but it's not the four guys that
you think yeah And I think that that could be
enough to get a veteran QB like Andy Dalton off
his timing. Or if Young, and I don't think Young's
playing, I think they've already ruled him out.
Or a younger QB, I think back to the Michael
Penick's game, who looked completely unbothered
by our pass rush, enough to get a young QB, at
least off his spot in the pocket, right? So I
do think Hoyt could, if used the right way, could
potentially move the needle a little bit on this
defense and do He's a great run defender like
he has a plus run defender as well. And God knows
they could use that like I'd rather him. I'd
rather him even if they're only running a two
linebacker set. I'd rather him fit run gaps than
like Cole Bishop running down to crash like a
290 pound tackle or something like that, you
know. Yep. So yeah. Yep. So all right. You want
to get to prediction sure to go wrong. Let's
do it. All right. Let's do it, man. All right.
So I mentioned already spread. I mentioned over
under. I'll give them to you again one more time.
The Bills, mystifyingly favored by seven points
in this game on the road in Carolina. Over under
on this, 46 .5. JJ, score prediction. Bills minus
seven in the over under is what? 46 .5. Okay,
46 .5. I'm going to lean on history and the...
and McDermott being excellent off the buy, and
McDermott never having three losses in a row
and getting this team oriented and focused for
this one. But I don't think the Bills win by
seven. I think that it's gonna be a little bit
closer of an affair. So I'm gonna say Bills 27,
Panthers 21. Ooh, I've got the same panther score.
I have a different bill score. Okay. I've got
bills 24 panthers 21 We have seen the bills just
like you know and we ought we gloss over this
a little bit But we have seen the bills come
off the by and kind of sleepwalk through the
first half of their gate returns And I think
with a young plucky team like that that's gonna
be enough to put the bills potentially behind
I think the game script for this is gonna be
like other Bills game scripts we have seen where
the first half is Infuriatingly close and then
the Bills eventually wake up in the second half
and slowly begin to pull away But there's only
so many times if you're the Bills you can play
with fire in that way. I hope I'm wrong That's
what we call a prediction sure to go wrong I
want this to be a 50 -point blowout But part
of me too is like maybe the Bills are thinking
about the Chiefs after this game. Yeah, I think
they I think they absolutely are looking ahead.
I don't think the bills, no matter what they
say about, oh, it's a one -week league. We're
going to take everything as it comes. There's
no way they didn't do some install in preparation
to that Chiefs game while over the interim. the
break. This is an NFC team. It's a team potentially
playing with their backup quarterback. Even if
it is Andy Dalton, we think that's a worse matchup.
There's, you know, there's bound to be things
that the Bills think they can get done here.
But yeah, I think that seeing people in Bills
Mafia commenting like, oh, they're going to wipe
the floor with the Panthers and move on because,
you know, look for, I don't, don't expect to
see that. This isn't the Panthers from Bryce
Rungs. Young's rookie year where they were looking
to go winless, like, because they had no offensive
line. This is a team that, you know, has really
pulled things together in a lot of ways. And
I think we undersell McDermott's place in Panther's
history. This is a team that does not have a
ton of history relative to a lot of other teams
in the league, but McDermott was a beloved Defensive
coordinator that helped take them to their only
Super Bowl that they've ever been to yeah Brandon
Bean played a huge role in this front office
and building that squad like these are two guys
Coming in on the opposing side that are our members
of your history And as an organization, I am
sure there's going to be some extra juice in
this game to like, yes, honor these legends,
but also show them like it's a new era and turn
the page on them. Right. Yep. So yeah, there's
a lot, but I think 24, 21 bills. Yeah, that's
where I'm at. All right. Um, I've got a, I've
got one prop for you. I've got one for you too.
Okay. You go first. All right. Michael Hoyt.
Plus plus minus half a sack I don't think anyone
on this team can get sex. So I'm gonna say under
I again and I'm Positive, I think there's upside
to Hoyt I'm more curious about where his alignment
on the field is going to be. Because if they're
just going to put him in a traditional backup
edge role, I think they are absolutely wasting
any creativity or imagination they could have
behind his placement. But I don't think anyone's
seen him get a sack. So that's just where I'm
at. That's just how little I trust them to do
anything. All pressure, no sacks, baby. That's
a better motto since 2018. That's right. All
right. Here's mine. Max Harris. Oh, go ahead.
Dan, there are other ways to affect the quarterback.
I I like listen, I never played football. So
call me a man of simple tastes I think the weight
best way to affect the quarterback is to knock
him on the ground as much as you can and Create
loss of yardage. But what do I know? Well, you
know, it's a non football player. I'm just a
dumb podcaster All right. Here's my here's my
prop bet for you. And then we will mercifully
on this episode Max Ariston over under 25 and
a half percent of the snap share Ooh, put 5 %
snaps. I'm going to say, I hate saying this because
I hate this so much. I'm going to say under,
and worse yet, I'm going to say he's inactive.
Yeah, I'm saying the same thing. I think he's
a healthy scratch, which means he's almost certainly
going to be a healthy scratch for the Chiefs
game. Yep. And I think it's absolutely the wrong
thing to do. But again, what do I know? I'm just
a dumb podcast. Just a dumb podcaster. I don't
know why. Yeah. Yeah, we should. You're right.
We should win wins matter. Keep our, you know,
first round talented CB and bubble wrap. Yep,
absolutely. But I think I think it goes hand
in hand. I think if he is a healthy scratch for
this game, there is no way his debut is against
the Kansas City Chiefs. No, there's no way. Yeah.
And I think he's a healthy scratch for this game.
I don't think he debuts against the Chiefs. And
I think that their plan, their strategy. Again,
we're just dumb podcasters, but it's really important
that they keep him healthy for when they miss
the playoffs. Oh, man. That's a podcast in and
of itself. What happens if they miss the playoffs?
What happens if they lose in the wild card round?
To the Patriots. To the Patriots? What if the
Patriots go on a Washington commanders like run
to the AFC championship this year? And they win
against the Chiefs as the only team since like,
what, 2020 when the Bengals did it to do that?
If Drake May plays the Chiefs in the postseason
and beats them on his first try, dude, dude,
dude, I can't even, I can't even. I can't even,
we need to end this. We're done. We're done.
It's getting too bleak, too dark. Oh my god.
Well, alright. Yep, I'd like to say it was fun,
but goddamn man, that was a rough note to end
on. For all of you still, for whatever reason,
listening at home, why would you be? For whatever
reason. Like, share, and subscribe wherever you
get your pods. We are on YouTube, Apple, Spotify,
and as always, go Bills. Go Bills.