Welcome back to the Buffalo Bread Podcast. Dan
and JJ here with you Saturday morning before
the Buffalo Bills take on the New England Patriots
at home Sunday night football week five. Bills
coming into this game 5 -0 and the New England
Patriots 2 -2 in second place in the FCS while
the Bills lead. This game could be... The early
season, stamp your foot on your division. We
are heading to the playoffs. Let's lock up the
seeds and go. Statement from the Bills. Or it
could be one of those excruciating, annoying
losses to a team that isn't quite there or on
their level that we've suffered so many times.
Look to every best Patriots game of their whole
season. The Super Bowl type game for a new coaching
staff under Mike Vrabel and a second year quarterback
with Drake May. What do you think, Dan? Are those
are only two options that we get to pick from
for this? Yeah, absolutely. It's you either stomp
on their throat 35 to 10 in the first half, or
it's a nail -biter to the end and they win. That's
it. Those are the two. I think... Yeah, we're
going to get into this as we talk about this
game, but I think based off the New Orleans game...
There are things that the Bills are doing offensively
and defensively that will require adjustment
against the Sioux England Patriots team. I am
stunned at the spread at this point and how high
it is in this game, and there's been a lot of
action on that. JJ, ultimately, the reason I
ask why those are only two options is I have
no idea how this game is going to play out. The
listeners, please continue to listen to the pod,
even though I'm probably going to give you an
accurate prediction here. But I do think everyone's
billing. This is a litmus test for the bills,
but there are things that the Patriots do that
I think if you are the bills and week five, this
is a good litmus test for where you've been a
little bit weak, where you've been challenged
by subpar teams. And I think the Patriots do
some things. Well, there are going to be an interesting
litmus test to see. Are we actually getting improvement
out of this bill squad? That's why I go kind
of with a third option. I go with the third option
of, I think this game is going to be closer than
we think for comfort, but I think it's going
to be clean competitive. Unlike the saints game.
I don't think this game is going to be us watching
the bill, shoot them in the foot, shoot themselves
in the foot on offense and defense for like the
second, third quarters of the game. I think.
I plan on seeing, especially with the return
of Ed Oliver and Matt Milano. I see the Bills
improving in some key areas on on defense, but
I see a well coached Patriots team that's also
starting to hit their stride. That's going to
give the Bills some fits in places. I'm expecting
a clean competitive game that is going to be
close, not a necessarily. Why do the Bills constantly
do this to lesser competition type of thing,
which we have seen? I would argue the past two
weeks. Yeah, well and I think that we've talked
about it before and we we did our kind of this
this state of the season better You know same
or worse exercise last week Josh Allen is He
is locked in like I we can all remember early
Josh Josh career moments where you saw the like
Panic in his eyes and you knew he was about to
either do something magnificent or horrifying
That Josh has gone. This is a mature, assembled
person who is every single bit the MVP that he
earned last year and years prior, but was finally
awarded last year in terms of acknowledgement
and expertise in this offense. And I think on
the other side of the ball, you have Drake May,
who's like a mini Josh Allen at this point in
his early career. And then he's does some of
the same things. He can absolutely kill you through
his legs. And he is the number one rated passer
in the NFL right now, especially when passing
from a clean pocket. So, you know, I think you're
right in that it's there's not the higher variability
with this bill's offense that there was in years
past. because of Josh Allen and Joe Brady working
together. Also the fact that the Bills are the
best rushing team in the league right now and
James Cook doesn't seem to be, you know, slowing
down anytime soon. But yeah, I think that the
variability comes in with Drake May. There are,
you know, he does, he is sackable. He does make
mistakes, but they are both, you know, giant
Viking warriors. Again, which I, why I think
this is going to be a really good game, a really
good game. JJ, before we get into the full preview
of the Pats itself, any takeaways or anything
from the Saints game that you, you would like
to see either change or continue heading into
the Pats game. I mean, I think we can, we can
both say with confidence. The second and third
quarters offensively for the Bills were just
atrocious, absolutely atrocious against the Saints.
And it is mind boggling. as to why we have a
QB playing at such a high level and a running
back playing at such a high level, why that offense
stalled out against that defense for so long
of a stretch. I mean, listen, couch offensive
coordinators are blaming Brady for it. And I
don't blame Brady after going back and rewatching
some of the film and some key snaps. But I do
think I do think there's a like a rope a dope
thing going on with Brady and the way he is setting
up some of his future play calls in the middle
quarters that that I do think needs to change.
But what did you see, particularly from the offense
against the Saints that you want to see improve
or maybe get more consistent here against the
Pats? Well, I think for me it was a sense of
it was it was similar to some other games we've
seen with Brady and Alan together recently where.
I could tell what the plan was. And it sort of
reminded me a little bit of going back to the
previous offensive coordinator whose name escapes
me right now, who I think is still Ken Dorsey,
Ken Dorsey. Yeah, it sort of reminded me a little
bit of Ken Dorsey's offense at times where it
was like, OK, I get the design of the play. I
understand what where they're supposed to be
moving the ball to in this in this play call
on the snap. But. They were really counting on
seven or eight pieces going perfectly right for
that to be open. And that's not the NFL, right?
Like there's not every person on your team is
going to win their one -on -one matchup. There
was some arrogance to it that I feel like was
disrespectful to the Saints defense. And the
Saints defense made them pay for that arrogance.
There were definitely defensive linemen who who
kind of stood up to matchups that the Bills didn't
think they'd be able to defeat, split double
teams, those sorts of things. And so I think
that that's what I saw from the offense at times
was it seemed like, oh, we need this. We need
three critical blocks to spring this run play
or the shovel pass to Khalil Shaqer on fourth
down. Like we need Ryan Vandermark, who's not
a great pulling. tackled to pull through the
hole and crush this block. And he didn't. And
so, and I don't think it has any fault because
I think he had a great game overall filling in.
Um, but it's, it was, it was that kind of thing
where it was like, ah, I can't understand what
you're trying to get done here. But the execution
was, was either poor or sloppy, or you just had
way too many moving parts. You were trying to
be too cute about it rather than just do what
you needed to do. Like they calmed things down
in the fourth quarter. we're just running the
ball with James Cook and playing in doing under
center play action off of it to You know wide
receivers, which I think is their bread and butter
this season. Hopefully they've learned You know
why complicate things you don't need to out trick
yourselves, right? Like make the defense stop
you at what you're exceptional at and Now that
was the thing I saw in that in that Saints game
JJ You mentioned specifically the play action
that I thought was a really nice adjustment.
We we have bang the drum on this pod for, since
I think Brady became the OC, that we want to
see more play action, particularly more first
down play action. Try to get some chunk yards
and prove that first down efficiency. You're
so good at running the ball with James Cook on
first down. Everyone is keying in on that kind
of stuff. I think what I saw Brady do too, and
this is my only criticism of Brady, is like a
boxer who, you know, the famous rope -a -dope.
Right. That Muhammad Ali pulled off against,
I think it was George Foreman, right? Like constantly
lull the defense into a sense of predictability.
I mean, they were smashing the button, JJ, on
this compressed offense, throws no more than
like six or seven yards beyond the line of scrimmage.
And I do think ultimately that's going to become
a problem if that trend persists later on down
the season. But then to your point, in the fourth
quarter, We see some first down play action.
Jackson Hawes gets a shot. James Cook gets a
shot and you start to see what Brady has been
setting up the Saints for for so long because
this passing offense doesn't necessarily put
a team in individual conflict because we know
we don't have a dude. Everybody eats right? So
there's not a single player like a la Stefan
digs that will put the defense in conflict and
force them to double Brady. Over and over again
was trying to manufacture that conflict and finally
got it there in the fourth quarter in particular
a lot of these these check down shots that Alan
was heading to James Cook out of the backfield
He ran a lot of those looks is cook is the first
read out of 12 personnel And then we saw out
of 21 personnel to which which was the touchdown
45 -year touchdown to Dalton Kincaid You see
when you watch it on film that after James Cook
had kind of eaten them up with four previous
catches in that middle zone of the field area,
you finally see safety help get sucked in. Then
you see Brady add the wrinkle of also putting
Ty Johnson out of the backfield, who everyone
is aware when he is on the field is a threat
to catch the ball. He pulls in the slot corner.
So then all of a sudden you've got Kincaid streaking
to the outside. Against a cornerback for New,
for New Orleans who's expecting safety help over
the top, but it's not there because it got sucked
in by cook and then boom 45 yard explosive play.
My only criticism of Brady, cause you can see
him as you watch his sequencing throughout the
game, even that dead period in the second, third
quarter set that up. You can see his sequencing
leading to that moment. My only criticism is
can we get to that moment without blowing two
straight quarters? You know what I mean? Can
we create that conflict earlier on? And that's
what I want to see against the Patriots. I want
to see more first down play action right off
the bat. And I want to see them with some of
these 12 and 21 personnel looks, put the Patriots
in real defensive conflicts that we get actually
scheme some of our guys open. Yeah, I mean it
feels like they're working a little too hard
to establish things that they've already established
on film. They should lean on the fact that defenses
are going to play them in ways that will open
things up if they just give them the right looks
without having to, like you said, lull them in
over a course of, you know, 17 plays and three
quarters and four punts and an interception,
right? Like we need to have a sense of urgency.
Trust that the other team is going to have some
tendencies Have some tendencies based on what
you've shown and just get to get to the wrinkles,
you know faster Yeah, I think that's that's a
great observation You know and speaking about
that Saints game, you know I think we both had
the the measure of the game pretty pretty even
up when we did our pod last week in that You
know, I had predicted 35 18 bills over Saints
They win 31 -19. You'd predicted 28 -17, so we
were like kind of right there in the strike zone
of what we expected it to be. Neither of us presumed
it was going to be a 42 -3 kind of drubbing like
the, you know, some of the oddsmakers were saying
with the 15 -plus point spread. But it, you know,
we were kind of, no Deion Walker sack, unfortunately.
Couple of good plays. And then Keon Coleman,
I didn't, I don't think he had a 20 -plus yard
reception, did he? He had three for 45. Yeah.
He did not. Yeah. I mean, he was efficient. Yeah,
he was solid. He didn't have an explosive. Yeah.
So, yeah, I think it was like, you know, it's
weird. NFC matchup. The Bills get, you know,
Josh Allen gets sacked three times, which I think
is a kind of a surprise, especially since at
least two of them I thought were ones he usually
doesn't take. And so it was a weird game. I think
that... You know, it tells me a lot about where
this Bill's team is, that it could look like
such a poor performance, kind of, or could feel
like such a poor performance for half the game,
and they still win 31 -19, right? Like this,
it's been such a long time, and I think a word
that you've used to describe this offense that
I love, it's been such a long time since the
Bill's offense seemed inevitable, right? Even
in the Josh Allen era there have been seasons
where we're like, oh no, are we gonna get one
on this possession? But the last two years two
and a half years. It's been like, okay We don't
worry about points, right? Like we worry about
our opponents points, but we don't worry about
bills points exactly exactly I Listen, I have
faith in Brady that to your point. He's got more
wrinkles. It's not it is not about points, right?
It's about game script which we know the bills
from from their strategies last year needed to
control game script in a certain way. And they
have over the past two weeks, seated control
of that script back to the opposing team. And
that's really more of what I'm talking about.
We are not sitting here complaining that the
Bills are have scored 30 points, at least 30
points or more to open up their first four games
of the season. What we are saying is they're
allowing teams that they should be, that should
be. I don't want to say lesser competition because
in the NFL, anybody can beat anybody, right?
But they are allowing teams control over certain
aspects of the game where the Bills have obvious
personnel advantages. And that's, and when it
is, when that happens, you always look to scheme
to be like, all right, what is happening? What
is happening here? Brady is not predictable,
right? He is just taking a really long time to
get things ramped up in game. And I think the
bills need to, to address that quicker, particularly
as the comfort, the con, listen, the competition
is going to stiffen up the Patriots. Um, and
we're going to talk about it. They're a solid
football team. They've had some up and down performances
and I get they're coming off a win against the
Panthers, but that is a team that is getting
healthy. Christian Gonzales back in the lineup.
It looks like, right. And it is a team that is
figuring out the schemes that they, they want
to run on offense to with a really young. Very
dynamic QB that presents a lot of issues, a lot
of issues that the Buffalo Bills have not been
able to address, i .e. someone who can scramble
on third down, right? Someone who can use their
legs to buy time in the pocket. So yeah, I just,
I just think. The bills are going to need some
of that to your point, inevitability on offense,
but some of that consistency on offense too,
if they are going to get back to controlling
game script in the way that they need to, to
kind of hide the warts on this defense until
we get all our guys back. Yeah. And I think that
that's a good point to, to, you know, talk about
the guys on defense a little bit, the bills,
uh, this weekend at the injury report. It's not
looking good, Dan. We feel like we say that every
week. I know. Starting right tackle Spencer Brown,
questionable. Starting inside linebacker Matt
Milano, questionable. Best defensive tackle at
Oliver, questionable. Bad but hopeful rookie
defensive tackle TJ Sanders, questionable. And
then Dorian Strong, Dorian Williams. It's a bad
week to be named Dorian. Both out this weekend.
So, you know, when you have five, you know, five
defensive players, questionable or out of a preferred
starting unit, or mostly three or five starting
unit, that is a lot of juice out of your 11 starting
defensive players to be missing. So especially
against a team in the Patriots who is, you know,
10th in the league in points scored per game.
They are middle of the pack in yards per game.
pretty high, you know, high in the rankings in
terms of passing offense, low and rushing. But,
you know, middle of the pack in time, possession
10th best in the league with third down efficiency.
You know, and so they're a team that is not,
they're not joking around. And I mentioned before
that Drake may is a little bit like young Josh
Allen in that he's variable and probably takes
more sacks and has more turnover worthy plays
than he should at this stage, but is also one
of the best passers in the league so far this
season. So it looks like he really has kind of
clicked in place. I'm just hoping that for the
Bill's sake, this isn't, you know, Drake May's
version of Josh Allen's 2020 season where he
shows up on the MVP conversations. Yeah, we don't
need that. We don't need that smoke yet, dude.
And that's a good place to jump into this preview,
I think, because I'm I am, of course, always
interested in what the our offense is going to
do against the opposing team's defense. But I
do think. just because of the injuries that you
mentioned, because of the deficiencies that we've
seen on defense with our squad. I want to start
there. I want to start with this New England
Patriots offense against our Buffalo Bills defense.
The New England Patriots, JJ, they are in terms
of win rates for both pass blocking and run blocking
night and day, right? The inefficiency of this
New England Patriots team to establish the run
is not because of their offensive line. They're
actually fifth in run and run block win rate.
The issue has been they have not been able to
figure out the right cocktail of their skill
players. behind Drake May in order to lead the,
lead the charge on the, on the ground. And I
think they began to correct a lot of that against
Carolina, where you saw Stevenson take less of
the snap share and you saw Henderson, their dynamic
rookie running back, get more in both traditional
run reps and pass catches out of the backfield.
So the numbers to me here four weeks and don't
tell the whole story about this New England Patriots
rushing attack, because I do think they're going
to lead a little bit harder into their rookie
because they've seen. how a pass catching running
back can absolutely put this Bills defense on
its heels. And I would anticipate with a solid,
not great, but solid offensive line that knows
how to block in the run game, I would anticipate
that the New England Patriots are going to take
the air out of the ball. And they are going to
run the ball very, very hard against the Buffalo
Bills. And the Bills are going to have to make
a stand against that run game early. And again,
this is where game script on the offensive side
for us is going to come into play too. Because
if you let Henderson in May, do what Rattler
and Kamara did last week. It's going to be a
very, very long night for this Bills team. And
they've got to take advantage of their opportunities
against what is a good run blocking offensive
line, but it's not a good pass blocking offensive
line. And to your point, Drake may as a QB that
will take sacks despite his mobility, right?
He's still a second year player. He still takes
a half second longer than he should to make some
of his decisions. So I think if you're the Buffalo
Bills, it's all got a shocker start in the trench.
is where the bills have not been great. Getting
at Oliver back to me is going to be big. And
I'm going to be curious JJ to see, and I'd love
your take on this. Let's say Oliver, he was limited
in practice, but he has been practicing, which
is a good sign that he may apply. If Oliver is
in there, are we seeing more of Dequan Jones
next to him? Or are we seeing more Deion Walker
and Key's situations next to at Oliver? What's
your take? What do you think? So I think that
it's if it's a passing down it's absolutely gonna
be Dianne Walker Because I think the Quan Jones
has not looked bad this season. He's looked solid
He's looked better than he did many points last
season in terms of looking healthy Looking, you
know not not looking his age in a lot of ways
And so I think we actually see more Dianne Walker
because I think that his juice in a pass rush
Has forced teams to double him on clear passing
downs third and longs that they have not had
had anybody other than that Oliver the team was
worried about in those situations. And so I think
that it's a matter of you force a matchup problem
for the interior three offensive linemen and
say, okay, pick which person you want to one
up. Can you handle them between, you know, at
Oliver and Deion Walker? Because I think Dequan
Jones has been, he's shown to win one -on -one
matchups in certain high leverage passing downs,
but he has not. He's not been as effective against
double teams in those same situations. So I think
they lean into the rook with a little bit more
size. Yeah, Daquan Jones, to your point, doubled
on 72 % of his snaps so far this season when
he was on the field. And his sack production,
he's leading the team in sacks. He's got two
here through four weeks. A lot of that is Bosa
chasing guys into him because Bosa has been such
a maniac off the edge. Which is the next place
I want to go. Um, we are very likely to see JJ
Joey Bosa versus Will Campbell, the highly touted,
somewhat high variance right now, rookie left
tackle for the New England Patriots. Campbell
a little banged up dealing with some injuries.
He says some up games. He'd said some down games,
but overall he is so far the weak link in pass
pro. on that New England Patriots defensive line.
He has given up the most QB pressures on Drake
May out of any other individual in that lineup.
JJ, I think exclusively Joey Bosa should be rushing
Will Campbell mercilessly in this game. Joey
Bosa has 15 QB pressure so far this season, leads
the team in that respective category. And I was
looking at his get off because he just looks...
I get in space against speedy running backs.
He's looked a little bad, but part of that too
is because he is so quick off the ball and he
finds as a result and run stops. He finds himself
way out of position because he's not maintaining
integrity. He just wants to, he just wants to
kill the QB. His get off JJ for a however oft
injured old player he is. 0 .79 seconds. It's
seventh and it's seventh in the league right
now amongst all defensive linemen. Joey Bosa
has been an absolute maniac for the squad. And
I love the matchup of him against Will Campbell
because I'm not so confident about the other
side of the defensive pass rush here. Greg Rousseau.
Dude, I don't know what's going on. His, his
get off is like exactly where it's been for the
past few years. His pressure rate way down and
dude, his time to pressure. So Bose's time to
pressure 2 .72 seconds. Uh, Greg Rousseau isn't
like 4 .3 or something. It's almost double that.
It's almost double that of Bose's. So like Rousseau
gets off the line quick and then he is just getting
clogged up. Uh, in a lot of one -on -one matchups.
Yes, he tends to get chipped. He gets the tight
end chip on his side of the field, but I mean,
he's just getting clogged up in a lot of one
-on -one matchups, which you would not expect
for a newly paid $20 million a year pass rusher.
Well, it's, it's, it's worrying. I think all
Bill's fans, you know, have the PTSD of Marcel
Darius who had these like. great, two great seasons
at the end of his rookie contract and then just
took it out of gear and it was terrible the rest
of his life. Like at football, like, you know,
was treated and then out of the league in three
years later, you know? So like, um, and I don't
think, I think that people knew Marcel was that
guy when he was a rookie, just because of the
choices he was making. Um, I don't think Greg
Rousseau seems to be that guy. He seems to be
a little bit of a hard worker and like care about
doing a good job at it, but it is worrying. that
uh that he has disappeared i mean he's got a
bone bruise in his knee or something like that
so he's playing through because they've needed
help but i'm i'm not i'm not super i'm not super
excited about it and it's the same thing we've
always talked about the the bills i mean they're
best they're best outside pass rusher is a late
stage oft injured veteran right like it's it's
no different from years, you know, the years
in the past when we were always like, can't they
just get this thing right with one drafted, you
know, outside pass rusher? And now they have
land injection who even with injuries has been
on the shelf because apparently in practice,
he's showing absolutely nothing worthwhile to
bring up onto the active roster in a game. So
I'm worried. I'm worried because, yeah, Will
Campbell, fourth overall pick this year's draft
at left tackle. It can be had. I think that they're
guards. Jared Wilson, who was also drafted this
year at left guard has looked okay. A glowing
when you at right guard has always been their
best offensive lineman like year over year. Garrett
Bradbury is, you know, what I like about Garrett
Bradbury is his pass blocking. So that's maybe
not the person you want to attack. Um, but run
blocking wise, he can get washed out. He has,
he's not great at climbing into the second level
and those sorts of things. There should be opportunities
off the edge, but that's what we thought last
year or last week. And that's what we thought
two weeks ago against the dolphins, right? Like
they've, the bills have seen some very, very
poor offensive lines the last few weeks and have
still not seemed to be able to get it done. Last
week, of course, the bills had three sacks. Almost
all of those came in the fourth quarter. with
Joey Bosa and then A .J. Appanessa. It really
was like two Bosa sacks, but A .J. Appanessa
was credited with one and he's still celebrating
it today. Might be the only one he gets. Right.
Like he just goes back to Highmark Stadium and
like just jumps up and down and waves his freaking
hands in the air every night just for fun because
of that one sack he had. Yeah, I mean, I don't
know. I think that one thing we haven't talked
about at all And we really should about this
defense versus the Patriots offense. Stefan Diggs,
man. What do you think? Stefan Diggs returning
to Highmark Stadium. I think Drake May is going
to target him 24 times and is going to make sure
that even if it is, even if it is first and goal
to go on the one yard line, he is throwing three
straight passes to Stefan Diggs to try to get
him a touchdown. I think, and I think this is
where the Bills can potentially exploit it. I
mean, listen, Stefan Diggs, he is leading that
New England Patriots team in targets. And, um,
which is shocking because you have Hunter Henry
on that team and Henry is still a legitimate
offensive weapon. Diggs does look good. I mean,
don't get me wrong. He's looked okay for them.
He's doing exactly what they need him to do.
But I mean, listen, Christian Benford versus
Stefan Diggs, that's a matchup. I am very curious
to see. I think Diggs is going to command targets.
I think you saw how emotional he was in that
Houston versus Bills game last season after that
win. His return to Highmark Stadium, he is an
emotional player. He is a competitive player
and he is going to be a very loud squeaky wheel
on the sideline if things are not going. his
way or this offensive way very, very early on.
And I think it could be in conflict with the
strategy that the Patriots are going to run out
because again, they're going to want to run the
ball. They're going to want to run the ball against
a defense that has proven they cannot stop the
run. Add to the fact too that The bills are going
to be susceptible unless something changes against
Drake May, third and five, third and seven scrambles
as well. May and Allen, it's almost identical.
They are six and seven respectively and scramble
rates for QBs this season. And May gets his most
juice and unscripted scrambles on third and long
or greater. So I, listen, I can see digs getting
frustrated with that really, really quick. I
really can. And it'll be interesting to see if
he is almost exclusively on Benford, or if we
see him line up in the slot a little bit more,
and we see him and Taron Johnson at all. I think
whoever is on digs, you got to be physical with
them at the point of attack, at the line of scrimmage,
without a doubt. I want to see them beat him
up a la Gabe Davis in that Jags game last season.
Yeah, they were ruthless with Dave Davis. You
wouldn't think they even liked him while he was
in Buffalo based on the way they treated him
as an opposing wide receiver. And I agree completely.
I think if they get inside of Dig's head, he
could become the Bills best player on the Patriots
sideline, right? he um you know he still you
you paid him 30 million dollars last year when
he wasn't playing for you so he still owes you
you know some favorable uh um production and
his production might be just sowing seeds of
dissent if the bills are able to get ahead on
the scoreboard and he's he's what he believes
is underutilized in the recovery effort of that
game Yeah, so absolutely. We've seen from multiple
playoff games when Diggs was on the roster that
if you are physical with him, you can take him
out of the game very early because he just gets
frustrated and then he plays sloppy. And so that
may be the strategy. But I do think that between
Matt Collins or other, you know, I'd say of the
two former Bills wide receivers on the outside
there, everyone feels a little better about Matt
Collins, even though Stefan Diggs had pretty
legendary stats for this team and was a cornerstone
for four years before it got weird. You know,
I think that people miss Matt Collins more and
he's also looked good. He leads the Patriots
and touchdowns and is doing exactly that utility
workman like job that he did for the Bills so
well. Just got too pricey because of his expertise
in that third wide receiver role. And so it's
an interesting, interesting outside matchups.
Um, a lot of it's going to depend on, you know,
without Dorian strong, it's clearly going to
be Trey white, uh, and Benford on the outside.
And we will see, I believe having seen, um, you
know, variable against the bills in the past,
they are going to target who they believe is
the weakest link outside at corner. And so whoever
is lined up against Trey white is going to get
a lot of targets. Can we talk about weakest link
for a second? And this is going to sound like
Christian Bedford's slander, and I don't mean
it to be. I'm on the record with Christian Benford
all around is probably the best, if not one of
the top three best defensive players on the squad.
This is going to sound like slander, right? But
we talk about weak link in the pass game. JJ,
Christian Benford this season has the worst passer
rating allowed when he is targeted as the nearest
defender out of the entire CB room. and he's
already given up four touchdowns this season
in coverage as compared to four all of last season.
His passer rating allowed is 121 .4 compared
to last season, which was 82 .6. Teams are not
afraid to go after him in clear passing downs.
And I just wonder, I just wonder. If when you
say like they're gonna go after the guy they're
gonna go after the guy who is the weakest link
I Wonder if they're not gonna test Benford early
on with digs to see what they can get out of
this Buffalo's Bills defense in the passing game
I just wonder if Benford is not so much an island
in this game And I wonder if he is gonna be fair
game for Josh McDaniels in this overall scheme.
It's a reasonable thing to wonder I've been I
think most bills fans have been disappointed
Um, he looks like a guy who's playing with an
injury, but we know there's nothing going on
there. Uh, you know, in terms of his hesitancy,
you know, he's not attacking routes in the same
way that he has in the past. His press coverage
has not been as rock solid as we know it can
be and has been. Um, and so I really, you know,
it's the kind of thing where it's like, okay,
Christian Bedford, here's your chance to prove
your money. Not just in run support. and run
blitzes, but in your coverage snaps. And I think
that if they do, I like Christian Menford so
much, you know this, I hope he sees this as an
opportunity to kind of prove his merit and prove
his medal. And the only way he's going to do
that and scare quarterbacks off of throwing into
his coverage is if he gets a couple of picks,
right? Like he needs to have a game where he
is aggressively defending the football and not
allowing completions into his coverage, not just
being the closest defender and tackling, tackling
soundly. Um, because to this point, I think that
that was, that's the only thing he's been offering
this defense is the ability to tackle soundly
and provide some run support. You know, I wonder
a part of this too, JJ is, and you know, We as
both bills fans, we kind of asked for this, what
I'm about to say. I wonder too, is, is if because
the bills are going through what to me feels
like a schematic overhaul. Right. They're no
longer locking down in nickel. I mean, I think
they played nickel like 90 .8 % of their snaps
last season. This year, they've only rolled out
nickel at about a 66 % clip on all defensive
play calls. They are asking their DBs to crash
down even more than they normally do and run
defense because the Buffalo Bills cannot stop
the run. Christian Benford is on pace to have
more, to have about Uh, 34 % more run stops from
his position at cornerback than he did last season.
Uh, and the bills are blitzing a whole lot more.
So we've seen Benford on an island and man coverage
a lot more this season. I wonder if this is,
I wonder if the issue with Benford is not necessarily
the player. Cause to your point, he looks healthy.
I wonder if the hesitance is because everyone
on that defense is adapting to a schematic change.
By the way, the schematic change we have all
been asking for for years. And now this is what
it looks like as you try to adapt on the fly.
I wonder too, if they're adapting to the fact
that they're playing a lot more young guys on
defense that are not necessarily owning their
roles. You've got Cole Bishop, who looks like
he's ascending, but he's a second year player.
And last year he didn't put much great stuff
on save. You've got two interior defensive linemen.
They're having a really hard time getting to
the QB. with the exception of Walker and a couple
of key places, but consistent pressure on the
QB from the interior, which is something the
Bills have been trying to build towards for years.
And he's been playing opposite a lot of times.
A rookie six round pick in Dorian Strong is the
CB2. We saw Strong and White platoon a lot against
New Orleans. I just wonder if, if because of
the high variance of some of the players on the
squad and because this Bills team has been missing
key pieces. as they've gone through a schematic
overhaul. I just wonder if some of Christian,
Christian Benford's struggles are more finding
his fit with the way the Bills want to play this
defense now. Well, I think if you think about
it, I think you're onto something because I've
also had watching the Bills all 22 film on defense.
What I see is that their play design is often
this person is going to be left solo and this
this corner is going to be in like a split mix
match zone. I think that the intention and design
of their defense is to have Maxwell Hairston
play the Christian Benford role as a as a more
elite physical talent and kind of somebody who
has the traits, just the physical traits. I know
he's he's young in the league and we have no
idea what he's going to be like as an NFL starter.
But I think that Hairston looks to be the type
of player who can play that role in this in this
scheme better. And that then that leaves Benford
in the Trey White role. of more zone half zone
reads or run support and run coverage towards
the strong side of the defense. And I and I think
he'd be exceptional in that because he has looked
like you have mentioned he's looked rough in
the in the lockdown man island role. And so it
seems like in my regards anyway, it's like they
planned a certain defensive aspect based on who
they believe that they would be. able to use
in those roles. And then Harrison's injury kind
of turned it upside down and everyone's sort
of playing out of position at this point. That's
a great assessment, dude. That's a great assessment.
So I think to kind of put a bow on this talk
about the Bills defense against the Patriots
offense. I think what I want to see is I just
want to see improvement. I want to see improvement
for the defensive line. I have zero confidence
that the squad can stop the run effectively,
but I'd love to be proven wrong. But I think
ultimately what I want to see, JJ, is improvement
in winning one -on -one matchups. I want to see
Joey Bosa with quality reps against Will Campbell
because we know he can get them. And I want to
see the Bills actually keep contain and rush
lane discipline. against Drake May because I
cannot have my heart ripped out game after game
watching a opposing QB scramble 15 yards for
a first down on third and seven every single
game. You know what I mean? So I just want to
see an improvement on QB containment and I want
to see the DBs like do what they can to lock
up some of these some of these wide receivers
for New England and put Drake May in just a little
bit of conflict. Yep. He's, he's, I mean, Drake
May's, you know, rating goes from one, like a
115, 118 down to like 60 when pressured. So they,
this is the game they need the pressure. They
need pressure to show up more than they've ever
have this, this season so far. It's the key.
It's going to absolutely be the key for them.
All right. Let's switch gears, JJ. Let's talk
about this Bills offense against this, uh, New
England Patriots defense that again, very solid
has some pieces that I think are going to be
problematic for the Bills for sure. Um, but ultimately
a defense that's still putting it together under
under how variable wants to run it. So JJ, what
are some of your keys here? Um, I think that
they need to they need to try to run at the They
need to run at the corners. They need to secure
the interior. The defensive line is good. Harold
Landry has always been excellent at setting the
edge. Kaila Mancheson came on after bouncing
around a little bit and being a high draft pick.
Has come on recently and looked like a solid
run defender. Christian Barmore and Milton Williams
in the middle. You're not really going to get
the gaps you want. Especially with somebody as
small as James Cook. Kind of running into the
teeth of that defense in the center So you got
to secure the edges the pin pull concepts some
of the zone concepts use the physicality of the
offensive line in terms of their ability to pull
and to seal edges and get James Cook talk towards
the outside or Hey, Ray Davis. You've looked
like absolute garbage trash this year Maybe you
get a chance to run off the you know off tackle
or off guard In some gap schemes this game and
not be tackled upon somebody breathing on you
too heavy Yeah, no. My criticism of Ray Davis
is going to continue to be ruthless until he
shows something. He's been bad. And so really,
it's a situation where, you know, the story of
the Bills offense for me always is like, you
know, that team might be good in this, good in
that. The Bills are the only team with Josh Allen.
So like that's, you know, if that's braggadocious,
whatever. I just don't see a lot of skill for
the Patriots outside of their defensive interior
line. Spillane and Ellis in linebacker, okay.
Marcus Jones is an awesome return man, but a
kind of sloppy slot corner. And so, and then
they're playing a rookie in Craig Woodson at
safety, a fourth rounder. opposite Jalen Hawkins,
they're doing everything they can possibly do
to try to keep Kyle Dugger off the field, which
I think is peculiar because we both liked him
and he was looking good and they paid him a crap
ton of money, but he has not been in favor with
this defensive personnel. So it's a lot. It's,
I would say, you know, The bill's best bet is
of course game script. You have to get these
guys tired. You got to have long sustained drives.
And probably the best route to do that would
be the short to intermediate passing game with
Josh Allen. You got to hold up in coverage long
enough to get those between five and 15 yard
completions. Yeah. This offense dude in the passing
game has been so compressed It's been so compressed
and despite that the Buffalo Bills are number
one in the league in EPA per dropback when they
play at 11 personnel I think if there was a game
where you were to Utilize play action on early
downs to your advantage. It would be this game.
I mean listen The Buffalo Bills are seeing man
coverage at a 47 % clip this season. That's like
ninth highest in the league right now And the
New England Patriots, they play man coverage
at about 47 % of their defensive snaps. You know
you're going to get one -on -one matchups, right?
You know you're going to have the opportunity
to attack downfield. I just want to see the Bills
stop voluntarily, keeping the game so close to
the line of scrimmage and making it easy on the
opposing defense. You've got Christian Gonzalez
on one side. You've got Carlton Davis on the
other side. They are both capable corners of
locking down whoever you put on the outside,
be it Josh Palmer, who has not been a separation
God. This season has previously advertised, um,
and Cian Coleman on the outside. Um, so give
me Khalil Shakir in the slot. Give me James Cook
out of the backfield and give me Dalton Kincaid
on some play action shots downfield. And let's
see what we can do to put this defense in conflict
because The Patriots are going to line up in
configurations that you should be able to exploit
schematically that again, it just seems to take
Brady so long to ramp up to those concepts in
game. Just hit the put the pedal to the middle
a little bit quicker and let's get this game
script in our favor. Yeah, absolutely and I think
that that's exactly right. I think that the Bills
defense is going to Be at his absolute best even
though it's been a poor defense through four
games It's gonna be its absolute best if they
know that Drake may has to pass it if they know
that the the Patriots are feeling pressure by
time by the time on the clock or the number on
the scoreboard, feeling the pressure to have
to drop back and pass it. That's when the Bills
will be able to dial up some interesting coverages
and some interesting pressures, which we think,
well, I think anyway is like the, that is the
core philosophy of their defense is to use the
fact it's to use Josh Allen on defense, right?
Make the other team know that they have to do
something with urgency in order to keep up Because
then you can kind of wreak havoc turnovers, you
know There's a reason that the Sean McDermott
led defenses 10 years in a row our top 10 in
turnover rate and percentage and that you know
It's because the design is we're gonna play we're
gonna be frontrunners and we're gonna make you
make mistakes Yeah, yeah, and it all starts with
this offense Especially if the defense does give
them the ball back early on in the game, not
squandering that opportunity like they did against
Miami and like they did against New Orleans as
well. So Drake, dude, Drake may, he's not afraid
to play in Buffalo. His first start last season,
first drive takes them right down the field on
a six play touchdown scoring drive. And Hunter
Henry. Who who we can who we gonna have it's
gonna guard Hunter Henry, right? So listen the
bills got to get this game script in their favor
and that means the offense has got to find its
flow and its rhythm Early, and it's got to keep
its foot on the gas. Absolutely Really hope Spencer
Brown is back for this one. Yeah me too Ryan
Vandermark is a solid player, but not a starting
caliber player yet and even though the even though
I worry about Harold Landry, but the The pass
rush Ed spots for the snowing and Patriots team
are not great, but they are solid enough to give
a player like Vandermark a little bit of issues.
So we'll see. Vandermark looked great in in in
run blocking like that is that dude's bread and
butter. Yeah, yeah, absolutely. Well, it's interesting
because Vandermark is also the he's a pure natural
left tackle. And so I think that if if he if
he and he we saw this had to fill in for Dion
Dawkins, it would look quite quite a lot different
and better. Than you know his his filling in
for Spencer Brown. I think and left tackle the
drop -off is a lot less for Vandermark Without
a doubt. All right, JJ. Anything else here about
this offensive mass matchup against the Patriots?
You want to get to prediction sure to go wrong.
Let's go to predictions. All right, here we go,
dude This game, you know, the the spread on this
has been interesting. It opened up at nine and
a half, which I found offensive Um, I don't Vegas
love you guys, please stop giving the bills these
giants. I don't understand it at all. I thought
this game would have been six and a half maybe,
right? Something like that. Eight and a half
points. It's just, it's right now it is offensive.
This spread did get down earlier in the week,
JJ to about seven and a half points, which tells
you that there was some public money going on
the Patriots. Then as we got into injury reports,
Milton Williams has been limited for the Patriots.
That line shot back up to about eight and a half
percent Over under forty nine and a half. I am
absolutely taking the over in this game Mm -hmm
JJ. Where are you at final score? So I think
that the I am hitting over as well. I think it's
a bills bills win but I think it's it's Contrary
to my opening remarks about the nail -biter that
the bills lose or an absolute blowout I think
it's a nail -biter the bills win 31 28 There
you go Every time I pick the bills to not score
30 they score 30. We're gonna continue that trend
I've got bills 27 Patriots 24. I think and again
what I'm looking for As I'm looking for a clean
competitive game. I want to see the bills improve
in some of those key areas that we talked about,
particularly with just pass rush, rush efficacy
against a QB and Drake may who was excellent,
but takes a lot of sacks still. And I just, I
want to see them keep may in the pocket, right?
Not I'm, cause I'm not saying may is a bad pocket
passer. I'm saying you cannot let may get out
and rush that do that scramble drill that he
is so adept at particularly on third and longs.
So just keep maintain pocket discipline. and
please for the love of God, Buffalo Bill's defensive
line, and I will be happy. And then Joe Brady,
dial up some of these shot plays off of play
action and early downs a little bit earlier than
the fourth quarter, please. That's all I'm asking
for, all I'm asking for. All right, any prop
bets, JJ, out of you. I've got three, but I'll
hit you with them really fast. Khalil Shakir,
over -under, half touchdown. Christian Benford,
over -under, half interception. With Milton Williams
saying that Josh Allen will absolutely not get
past us Josh Allen over under 49 .5 yards rushing
I'm gonna say I'm gonna take the Over on cool
Shakira. I think he does get a touchdown Okay,
I mean listen for this everybody eats mantra
that the bills have been rolling out there, which
I love and appreciate Their top three leading
receivers by yardage are exactly who you would
expect it to be. It's Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir,
and Dalton Kincaid. So those three guys have
been the primary go -tos, go -to for Josh this
season. So I think Shakir, and a gotta have it
moment, absolutely gets a touchdown. Christian
Benford? No. I'm going to say no, just because,
I mean, I'd like to see it, but again, to our
point earlier, whether it's schematic, whether
he's dealing with an undisclosed injury, just
not there overall right now and the way the bills
want to run this defense. And he's never been
a massive turnover machine. He had only had two
picks last year to four TDs given up. So I'm
going to say no, Benford doesn't get a pick.
And then Josh Allen over under. Ah, man, it's
hard not to take the over in this particular
scenario, because I think they're gonna need
it. I think they're gonna need a break. break
glass in case of emergency Josh Allen performance
where he takes over with his arm and with his
legs as well. Yep. All right. Well, I like it.
And I just want to see him stiff arm Milton Williams,
which is like not a thing you really want to
do. Like, but we've seen Josh Allen's stiff arm,
Aaron Donald, which was before that moment in
time, not observed in the scientific universe.
This is true. This is true. Um, yeah, I think,
I think the Listen, teams have been doing such
a good job of locking down Josh on his unscripted
scrambles like his I think I talked about this
last pod, but his rush yards over expected as
a negative territory after four weeks, because
teams are really keying in on him. And I think
that the Patriots are going to do the same thing.
But I'm fine with that because Josh has also
been a surgeon passing the ball too. You just
got to get some of these wide receivers open,
which play action on early downs would help with
Joe Brady. All right. I'm done with that. I'm
done with that. All right. I got one, I got one
prop for you, but it's on the Patriots side of
things. All right. Drake may over under 275 and
a half pass yards in this particular game. Ooh,
275. It'd be a lot. And listen, May for all of
his effectiveness this season, I mean, he's had
up and down performances. He absolutely was,
you know, nails against Carolina, but that's
Carolina and they're pretty, they're pretty beat
up right now. Did not play well against Pittsburgh
early on in the season and did not play well
against Oakland. I'm gonna give a hat tip to
Bill's Mafia on this one, and I say he's gonna
be under, because I think the operation of that
offense is gonna be difficult in the hostile
territory that is Highmark Stadium, because of
what the 12th man, what Bill's Mafia brings to
the table. So I think that it's, yeah, I think
that... in a neutral field, I probably would
be smashing the over, but in, because he's going
to be playing at the Bill's house on Sunday night.
So all of Bill's mafia has, you know, dozen hours
to get kind of juiced up before that game and
tailgating. Right. I think that, yeah, this,
this one, it's a, it's a divisional matchup.
It's in the Bill stadium. It's Sunday night football.
With all of those things compiled, I think it's
a hard road for him to get close to 300 yards
passing. So I'm hitting the under. How about
you? I'm also going to take the under, not because
of a lack of faith in Drake May. You know, because
they have Marcus Jones in the return game, the
Patriots have actually benefited from really
positive starting field position, right? And
the Buffalo Bills special teams has not been
reliable and we're rolling out our third punter
of the season this year. I think it's going to
be under, but not because Drake may is going
to be bad. I think it's beginning going to be
because the Patriots are going to have some pretty
favorable field position in this game. That's
going to get them some really great opportunities
to take some shots at the Buffalo Bills. Yeah,
and I mean it's also worth noting that with the
kind of horrible -looking Impact on Johnston
last week and the signing of Mitch Wishnowsky
The Bills are basically leaning into this and
it's probably just because it was available But
they've only been you know rolling with Australian
punters this season, so Are there any really
good New Zealand? You know Kiwi punters out there
like let's just keep this this South Pacific
thing going Had no idea had no idea that that
was the case. I love that Yeah, they're both
Australian where they had they grew up playing
Australian rules football both of the punters
the bills have signed this season Wildstead of
the day wildstead of the day. I can't believe
you sat on it till the end of the pod. That's
impressive. I know it's string most most important
position on the field to write punter so There
you go. It should have been a feature at the
lead of this pod. But yeah, man, you know I think,
I think, I think under overall for sure. Well,
and what's funny is, is I feel like if, if, if
Wishnowsky gets like hurt too, I feel like the
Bill's move might just be like, save the roster
spot for some of these guys coming off of, you
know, um, and just have Josh Allen throw like.
throw the punts, right? Like, all right, dude,
drop back, have freaking, you know, have the
long snapper snap you a ball and just throw it
as far as you can. And then they catch it. And
let it get picked. Yeah, exactly. Let it get
picked. Call it. He'll have like 20 interceptions
on the season. But if people dig into it, they'll
realize, oh, it's because the Bills abandoned
the normal punting game and just had Josh Allen
throw arm punts for half the year. It's basically
what that pick was he threw against New Orleans.
Yeah. Like third and 17 or something like that.
Yeah. Oh my God. Yeah. Yeah. Um, shoot, dude,
I, I'm looking forward to this game, but man,
I'm going to be watching this game with Brandon,
our friend of the pod, not friend of the bills.
Yeah. Uh, noted Patriots expert. We're going
to be sitting down at his house. We're going
to be watching the game. It's going to be a,
it's going to be a fun affair. I'll have my notebook
out and taking notes, uh, ready for the recap
of this for sure. Good deal. Awesome. All right.
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