WEBVTT

00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.040
Good morning and welcome to the Buffalo Bread

00:00:02.040 --> 00:00:04.960
podcast. Thank you for joining us and a coffee

00:00:04.960 --> 00:00:06.839
pod. We're recording the day before the Bills

00:00:06.839 --> 00:00:10.880
game against the New Orleans Saints in Buffalo

00:00:10.880 --> 00:00:14.500
on a Saturday. Dan, how are we doing? Doing good.

00:00:14.699 --> 00:00:17.780
Excited for the Bills welcoming the Saints to

00:00:17.780 --> 00:00:19.679
Highmark tomorrow. Also excited to talk about

00:00:19.679 --> 00:00:22.010
where we think this team stands. Three weeks

00:00:22.010 --> 00:00:24.050
into the season, this is usually the time of

00:00:24.050 --> 00:00:26.250
the year, JJ, where I start to get my bearings

00:00:26.250 --> 00:00:29.269
as a stats guy. Like one or two games, not a

00:00:29.269 --> 00:00:31.309
real great sample size, but once you start to

00:00:31.309 --> 00:00:33.689
get into weeks three and four, you're far enough

00:00:33.689 --> 00:00:35.869
past the pre -season to where you kind of see

00:00:35.869 --> 00:00:38.590
what teams want to put on film as you're about

00:00:38.590 --> 00:00:41.030
to make that turn into the second quarter of

00:00:41.030 --> 00:00:43.710
the season where now other teams start to respond.

00:00:43.750 --> 00:00:45.530
So I think we're getting in some good data about

00:00:45.530 --> 00:00:47.630
the Bills, about where they're at realistically

00:00:47.630 --> 00:00:50.630
and where they need to go to be successful and

00:00:50.630 --> 00:00:52.140
claim. that ultimate goal we want them to at

00:00:52.140 --> 00:00:54.079
the end of the season. So I'm stoked to talk

00:00:54.079 --> 00:00:56.579
about it, dude. Yeah, man. And I think that,

00:00:56.579 --> 00:00:59.340
you know, to start that conversation, we have

00:00:59.340 --> 00:01:02.979
to look back a little bit into the Buffalo Bills

00:01:02.979 --> 00:01:05.319
game against the Miami Dolphins, our third game

00:01:05.319 --> 00:01:09.480
of the year. The Bills are now 3 -0 and things

00:01:09.480 --> 00:01:12.379
are looking good, especially considering this

00:01:12.379 --> 00:01:15.359
weekend, one of the Kansas City Chiefs were Baltimore

00:01:15.359 --> 00:01:18.260
Ravens, who many would consider the top contenders

00:01:18.260 --> 00:01:20.790
for that number one seed in the AFC. One of them

00:01:20.790 --> 00:01:22.290
is going to be one and three while the other

00:01:22.290 --> 00:01:26.609
one moves to two and two. Yes. That game is fascinating

00:01:26.609 --> 00:01:28.849
to me for a bunch of different reasons. Lots

00:01:28.849 --> 00:01:32.510
of implications to that. But I don't know, man.

00:01:33.489 --> 00:01:36.829
Is it weird to root for both teams to lose? Like

00:01:36.829 --> 00:01:39.609
a tie because it muddies up their opportunities.

00:01:40.090 --> 00:01:42.709
Yeah. Is that an outcome that we can get from

00:01:42.709 --> 00:01:45.390
that game, right? I mean, do you want to talk

00:01:45.390 --> 00:01:47.170
about that real quick? Yeah, we could talk about

00:01:47.170 --> 00:01:49.980
that. Just our thoughts on it real quick. Who

00:01:49.980 --> 00:01:53.519
do you think is more likely to bounce back after

00:01:53.519 --> 00:01:56.379
that game? Like there's the whole who needs it

00:01:56.379 --> 00:01:58.700
more thing. But the reality is both of those

00:01:58.700 --> 00:02:01.200
teams are so talented with the Chiefs getting

00:02:01.200 --> 00:02:03.299
some pieces back here later on in the season.

00:02:03.739 --> 00:02:05.780
Like, I don't know that this is a nail on the

00:02:05.780 --> 00:02:08.080
coffin for either squad, but who do you think,

00:02:08.139 --> 00:02:10.860
if they lose, has the better chance to bounce

00:02:10.860 --> 00:02:16.240
back? Chief's track record. Coaching, yeah. Track

00:02:16.240 --> 00:02:18.800
record coaching, key injuries and suspensions

00:02:18.800 --> 00:02:20.159
and things like that. I think that they have

00:02:20.159 --> 00:02:23.500
the better chance because the Ravens in a lot

00:02:23.500 --> 00:02:27.599
of ways are, they are at peak form this part

00:02:27.599 --> 00:02:29.319
of the season, even though they've not performed

00:02:29.319 --> 00:02:33.099
very well in a few games. They also haven't been

00:02:33.099 --> 00:02:36.159
completely wiped out by their, their injury bug

00:02:36.159 --> 00:02:39.520
that they sometimes get yet. So I think we're

00:02:39.520 --> 00:02:41.659
seeing them where they're at. I think we're seeing

00:02:41.659 --> 00:02:43.520
a lesser version of the Chiefs of where they

00:02:43.520 --> 00:02:48.610
will be. Yes. For the record, I think both teams

00:02:48.610 --> 00:02:51.689
can recover from a loss this weekend, but I actually

00:02:51.689 --> 00:02:53.469
think it's the Ravens that might have the easier

00:02:53.469 --> 00:02:55.229
road, only because of the division they play

00:02:55.229 --> 00:02:57.889
in. I think if the Ravens take the L this week,

00:02:58.069 --> 00:03:00.469
and to your point, remain kind of healthy. I

00:03:00.469 --> 00:03:03.229
know Kyle Van Noy is banged up. They haven't

00:03:03.229 --> 00:03:05.430
had a healthy Isaiah likely though. Honestly,

00:03:05.590 --> 00:03:08.389
that offense doesn't really... like center around

00:03:08.389 --> 00:03:10.969
him, you know, he's a nice piece to have. But

00:03:10.969 --> 00:03:13.090
I think that division with Burrow being down,

00:03:13.189 --> 00:03:15.210
with the Browns having a really great defense,

00:03:15.270 --> 00:03:17.610
but not really knowing who they are on offense.

00:03:18.250 --> 00:03:21.469
And then the Steelers, I mean, the Steelers defense,

00:03:21.770 --> 00:03:23.229
and I'm going to regret this because the Bills

00:03:23.229 --> 00:03:25.849
will play the Steelers this season. The Steelers

00:03:25.849 --> 00:03:27.930
defense looks old and kind of washed and that

00:03:27.930 --> 00:03:31.030
secondary is very banged up. And Aaron Rodgers

00:03:31.030 --> 00:03:34.710
is playing the exact same game, game after game

00:03:34.710 --> 00:03:36.979
for Pittsburgh, where it's The same amount of

00:03:36.979 --> 00:03:38.780
tight window throws, same amount of turnover

00:03:38.780 --> 00:03:41.319
worthy throws. It's just a matter of can your

00:03:41.319 --> 00:03:43.620
defense take advantage of the way Rodgers plays

00:03:43.620 --> 00:03:46.360
now, which is kind of sloppy. And that to me

00:03:46.360 --> 00:03:49.180
is too much of an inconsistent factor to be able

00:03:49.180 --> 00:03:52.319
to count on as well. So I think for the Ravens,

00:03:52.340 --> 00:03:54.780
if they drop to one and three, I think they do

00:03:54.780 --> 00:03:56.620
have the ability at least to squeak out something

00:03:56.620 --> 00:03:58.599
in their division because of the relative weakness

00:03:58.599 --> 00:04:01.719
compared to their squad. Yeah, no, I think that

00:04:01.719 --> 00:04:03.900
that's true. That's true. And I do think we're

00:04:03.900 --> 00:04:06.360
seeing a resurgent AFC West against the Chiefs,

00:04:06.360 --> 00:04:08.340
which I think Bill's fans have been waiting.

00:04:08.400 --> 00:04:12.080
We've been waiting. We are the main characters

00:04:12.080 --> 00:04:16.180
in Lord of the Rings waiting for Gandalf to come

00:04:16.180 --> 00:04:19.839
over the crest of the hill at dawn with the riders

00:04:19.839 --> 00:04:24.399
of Rohan. And those are the Broncos and the Chargers.

00:04:24.620 --> 00:04:26.899
Like, thank you for arriving finally to the fight.

00:04:26.939 --> 00:04:28.660
We've been holding this keep all night long.

00:04:29.139 --> 00:04:31.860
Exactly. Exactly. Oh, God. It's I'm so glad we

00:04:31.860 --> 00:04:33.740
went in this little diversion just for that reference

00:04:33.740 --> 00:04:36.600
alone. Love those movies. Holy crap. All right,

00:04:36.639 --> 00:04:39.720
man. Well, as we talk about indivision rivals

00:04:39.720 --> 00:04:42.199
here, that's a perfect segue to talk about Miami.

00:04:42.459 --> 00:04:44.240
But JJ, I want to do it a little bit different

00:04:44.240 --> 00:04:46.399
because to your point, we're recording about

00:04:46.399 --> 00:04:49.240
a day before week four begins. And for Bill's

00:04:49.240 --> 00:04:51.180
Mafia, I mean, pretty much every way you could

00:04:51.180 --> 00:04:53.660
break down that closer than expected Miami game

00:04:53.660 --> 00:04:56.100
has been broken down. So I kind of want to take

00:04:56.100 --> 00:04:59.000
a step back being that that was the the third

00:04:59.000 --> 00:05:01.240
week of the season. We now have a pretty decent

00:05:01.240 --> 00:05:04.060
sample size of where the Bills are at from multiple

00:05:04.060 --> 00:05:06.839
angles on the squad. And rather than go through

00:05:06.839 --> 00:05:09.379
an offense defense special teams recap, I want

00:05:09.379 --> 00:05:11.060
to do something a little bit different. I want

00:05:11.060 --> 00:05:13.399
to talk about some individual contributors and

00:05:13.399 --> 00:05:16.199
individual units that the Bills had hoped either

00:05:16.199 --> 00:05:18.779
would take a step or maintain a high level of

00:05:18.779 --> 00:05:21.379
play this season. And after three weeks and after

00:05:21.379 --> 00:05:23.759
that Miami game, it's the perfect place to check

00:05:23.759 --> 00:05:26.000
in with some of those folks. So I'd like to do

00:05:26.000 --> 00:05:28.740
something I call better, same or worse. I'm going

00:05:28.740 --> 00:05:30.519
to give you a player or I'm going to give you

00:05:30.519 --> 00:05:34.060
a unit or a situation on the squad, JJ. And you're

00:05:34.060 --> 00:05:36.379
going to tell me if they're performing better,

00:05:36.519 --> 00:05:40.139
the same or worse compared to pre -season hopes

00:05:40.139 --> 00:05:42.319
and their performance last season. Sound good?

00:05:42.740 --> 00:05:44.939
Perfect. Let's run this thing. All right. I'm

00:05:44.939 --> 00:05:47.500
going to start with an easy one. Josh Allen,

00:05:47.920 --> 00:05:51.740
better, same or worse. better. He has looked

00:05:51.740 --> 00:05:53.779
sharper. He's looked like he's had the answers

00:05:53.779 --> 00:05:58.339
quicker in the down. I haven't seen him absolutely

00:05:58.339 --> 00:06:01.360
blow a protection call at the line and then get

00:06:01.360 --> 00:06:04.120
lit up on a corner blitz that he wasn't anticipating.

00:06:04.860 --> 00:06:07.139
I think that the line has actually been, we'll

00:06:07.139 --> 00:06:10.139
get to the line, but Josh Allen has been better.

00:06:10.240 --> 00:06:13.639
I think he looks every bit the MVP of the league

00:06:13.639 --> 00:06:16.680
and he has complete control of this offense.

00:06:17.900 --> 00:06:20.259
I have not been more happy with Josh Allen as

00:06:20.259 --> 00:06:21.980
my quarterback than I am at this exact moment

00:06:21.980 --> 00:06:24.699
in time because he's looked sharp. We're waiting

00:06:24.699 --> 00:06:27.579
on the downfield passing. That needs to come.

00:06:28.399 --> 00:06:30.660
And I want to talk about that a little bit. I

00:06:30.660 --> 00:06:32.079
want to talk about a little bit of that later

00:06:32.079 --> 00:06:35.490
on because I've got one here on. the third down

00:06:35.490 --> 00:06:37.470
offense and the third down defense where I think

00:06:37.470 --> 00:06:39.550
we can squeeze some things in there. I agree

00:06:39.550 --> 00:06:42.050
with you though, Josh is playing better than

00:06:42.050 --> 00:06:45.389
he did last year in his MVP season. He's number

00:06:45.389 --> 00:06:47.949
one in EPA per play amongst all QBs, number one

00:06:47.949 --> 00:06:51.389
in EPA per individual drop back as well. And

00:06:51.389 --> 00:06:54.490
JJ, he's doing it with a ton of second reads,

00:06:54.769 --> 00:06:57.600
second reaction throws. And we'll get to this

00:06:57.600 --> 00:06:59.000
pass catcher room in a minute because we're going

00:06:59.000 --> 00:07:01.420
to talk about a couple of those guys. On average,

00:07:01.720 --> 00:07:04.019
they are getting more separation than they did

00:07:04.019 --> 00:07:07.180
last season at the same time. 3 .8 yards of average

00:07:07.180 --> 00:07:09.920
separation against the nearest defender to last

00:07:09.920 --> 00:07:12.740
season. At the same time, it was 3 .3 yards per

00:07:12.740 --> 00:07:16.160
average separation. But Josh is still having

00:07:16.160 --> 00:07:20.399
to hang onto the ball, go off script. and create

00:07:20.399 --> 00:07:22.600
more in the passing game, particularly to get

00:07:22.600 --> 00:07:25.720
those explosive plays that we have been kind

00:07:25.720 --> 00:07:29.019
of yearning for this team to unlock. And defenses

00:07:29.019 --> 00:07:32.279
have found a way, like Miami did in key situations,

00:07:32.540 --> 00:07:34.839
third and six, third and seven, and more, if

00:07:34.839 --> 00:07:37.480
you can get the bills in that situation, they

00:07:37.480 --> 00:07:39.779
are just blanketing our wide receivers and there's

00:07:39.779 --> 00:07:42.300
still a lack of separation overall that they

00:07:42.300 --> 00:07:44.759
are failing to attain, which is forcing Josh

00:07:44.759 --> 00:07:47.550
to improv. in the pocket. I mean, I think this

00:07:47.550 --> 00:07:52.009
season, JJ, he ranks number seven in second reaction

00:07:52.009 --> 00:07:54.250
throws this season and second read throws this

00:07:54.250 --> 00:07:57.069
season. Like, there's just not a lot there on

00:07:57.069 --> 00:08:00.649
his first read. And this isn't a case of Josh

00:08:00.649 --> 00:08:02.689
being skittish in the pocket like we've seen

00:08:02.689 --> 00:08:05.629
in the past. This is a professional, cool, calm,

00:08:05.730 --> 00:08:08.350
collected Josh assessing the field and knowing

00:08:08.350 --> 00:08:10.629
that he's got to go to alternate options because

00:08:10.629 --> 00:08:13.779
his first read is not there. By comparison, And

00:08:13.779 --> 00:08:15.920
I can't believe I'm saying this MVP candidate,

00:08:16.000 --> 00:08:19.680
Daniel Jones, 71 % of his completions are coming

00:08:19.680 --> 00:08:22.160
off of his first read. Stiken is doing a great

00:08:22.160 --> 00:08:24.920
job for him of scheming guys open, giving him

00:08:24.920 --> 00:08:28.180
quick, uh, decisive reads in the structure of

00:08:28.180 --> 00:08:30.560
the offense. And Josh doesn't have that yet.

00:08:30.680 --> 00:08:33.559
And I think it's a twofold issue, which is going

00:08:33.559 --> 00:08:35.779
to sound crazy for a team that scores 30 points

00:08:35.779 --> 00:08:39.179
a game. The issue to me feels like the pass catcher

00:08:39.179 --> 00:08:40.899
room still hasn't evolved to where we need it

00:08:40.899 --> 00:08:44.159
to. I'm getting separation. But then also, I

00:08:44.159 --> 00:08:47.519
mean, Brady is a great OC, but this has always

00:08:47.519 --> 00:08:49.720
been the thing we've wondered if he can develop.

00:08:49.840 --> 00:08:52.879
Can he develop a downfield passing game? Can

00:08:52.879 --> 00:08:55.460
he develop a passing game that attacks multiple

00:08:55.460 --> 00:08:57.919
levels of the defense? And we haven't seen him

00:08:57.919 --> 00:09:00.100
do that yet to that extent. Yeah, and I think

00:09:00.100 --> 00:09:04.220
that's a great point. Also, when you chucklingly

00:09:04.220 --> 00:09:09.080
said, you know, with MVP candidate Daniel Jones,

00:09:09.559 --> 00:09:13.820
The wide receivers on the Colts are Josh Downs,

00:09:14.080 --> 00:09:16.580
Ashton Doolin, Anthony Gould, AD Mitchell, who

00:09:16.580 --> 00:09:18.639
I think we both like, Alec Pierce, who's been

00:09:18.639 --> 00:09:21.360
okay, solid, and Michael Pittman, who's a very

00:09:21.360 --> 00:09:24.139
good receiver. I think that, yeah, so like, but

00:09:24.139 --> 00:09:26.059
that's the, that's the thing is like, none of

00:09:26.059 --> 00:09:30.539
those people are absolute soul crushing talents

00:09:30.539 --> 00:09:34.610
in this league, right? Like they are solid. There's

00:09:34.610 --> 00:09:36.929
not a Jamar Chase, a Tyreek Hill, a Jalen Waddle

00:09:36.929 --> 00:09:40.110
among them. They are, you know, solid, if not

00:09:40.110 --> 00:09:42.049
spectacular, which I think is a good way that

00:09:42.049 --> 00:09:44.929
a lot of people might describe the Bills wide

00:09:44.929 --> 00:09:46.850
receiver room. So it's not like he's beating

00:09:46.850 --> 00:09:50.269
all the coverage looks with this initial separation

00:09:50.269 --> 00:09:52.509
because he has these magnificent talents who

00:09:52.509 --> 00:09:55.269
cannot be covered. And so I think that your point

00:09:55.269 --> 00:09:58.389
carries a lot, which is if... Josh Allen has

00:09:58.389 --> 00:10:01.409
to look for a second window every time or has

00:10:01.409 --> 00:10:03.250
to look for something to break down in coverage

00:10:03.250 --> 00:10:05.529
every time. That's that's a problem. Is that

00:10:05.529 --> 00:10:08.850
a problem of design? Yeah, absolutely. Absolutely.

00:10:09.149 --> 00:10:11.169
Despite all that, I think we both agree he's

00:10:11.169 --> 00:10:13.230
playing at a higher level than he did last season,

00:10:13.330 --> 00:10:15.789
which is absolutely scary if you're the rest

00:10:15.789 --> 00:10:17.990
of the league. All right, JJ, let's move on.

00:10:18.169 --> 00:10:21.429
Next up, James Cook. Better, same or worse from

00:10:21.429 --> 00:10:24.000
last year? Absolutely better. I think he just

00:10:24.000 --> 00:10:27.039
looks smooth, decisive. He's in and out of his

00:10:27.039 --> 00:10:29.340
cuts. He brought back the physicality. I think

00:10:29.340 --> 00:10:31.779
everyone was shocked to see him bring last year

00:10:31.779 --> 00:10:34.080
when it comes to, you know, I think he's one

00:10:34.080 --> 00:10:37.440
of the top, he's top five or top 10 in yards

00:10:37.440 --> 00:10:40.440
after contact, you know, per play, which is not

00:10:40.440 --> 00:10:42.820
what you'd expect of somebody sub 200 pounds

00:10:42.820 --> 00:10:44.799
as a running back because he's kind of lanky

00:10:44.799 --> 00:10:48.539
in his frame. He's not, say Quad Barkley. Yeah.

00:10:48.639 --> 00:10:51.600
He's number four in the league. an average yards

00:10:51.600 --> 00:10:54.679
per carry after contact. Yep. And which is just,

00:10:55.000 --> 00:10:57.460
it's amazing for, you know, somebody of his size

00:10:57.460 --> 00:10:59.940
stature and his running style. Even I think that

00:10:59.940 --> 00:11:02.759
it's something that he's developed that no team

00:11:02.759 --> 00:11:04.899
drafting or looking at James Cook coming out

00:11:04.899 --> 00:11:07.500
of Georgia would have expected him to be able

00:11:07.500 --> 00:11:10.860
to do. Yeah, without a doubt his rushing yards

00:11:10.860 --> 00:11:13.519
total over expectation through three weeks plus

00:11:13.519 --> 00:11:16.220
82, according to NFL next gen stats, which is

00:11:16.220 --> 00:11:18.279
like that takes into account for those of you

00:11:18.279 --> 00:11:20.850
at home who aren't familiar with the stat. It

00:11:20.850 --> 00:11:23.470
takes into account blocking, right? If all things

00:11:23.470 --> 00:11:26.649
were equal on blocking, how far above expectation

00:11:26.649 --> 00:11:30.110
is he gaining? And that gives you a good indication

00:11:30.110 --> 00:11:32.539
that. Yes, there is a great marriage between

00:11:32.539 --> 00:11:34.799
this offensive line and the running back, but

00:11:34.799 --> 00:11:37.159
the running back is carrying his load and then

00:11:37.159 --> 00:11:39.159
some. We talked about him being number four in

00:11:39.159 --> 00:11:41.220
the league in yards per carry after contact.

00:11:41.580 --> 00:11:43.620
He is also number four in the league in rush

00:11:43.620 --> 00:11:46.659
yards over expectation. And you know, JJ, they

00:11:46.659 --> 00:11:48.940
really need James Cook in this rushing offense.

00:11:49.159 --> 00:11:50.860
They've given him a larger percentage of the

00:11:50.860 --> 00:11:54.240
snap share. He's gone from about 49, 48 % last

00:11:54.240 --> 00:11:58.309
season at the same time to now 62%. Um, of the

00:11:58.309 --> 00:12:00.809
snapshot on this running back room, they're using

00:12:00.809 --> 00:12:03.629
him more effectively in the red zone and on third

00:12:03.629 --> 00:12:06.129
down as well. I mean, he's on pace, I think for

00:12:06.129 --> 00:12:09.190
like 350 touches. That's gonna, that's going

00:12:09.190 --> 00:12:11.710
to regress to the mean at some point, but they've

00:12:11.710 --> 00:12:13.529
really needed James Cook in the thrashing offense

00:12:13.529 --> 00:12:15.769
because Ray Davis hasn't looked great on his

00:12:15.769 --> 00:12:17.509
carries. That decisiveness that you mentioned

00:12:17.509 --> 00:12:20.190
with Cook. He's in there with Davis at this point.

00:12:20.460 --> 00:12:22.659
And I think a thing that we're not talking about

00:12:22.659 --> 00:12:25.860
as much is that teams are really keying in on

00:12:25.860 --> 00:12:28.799
the Josh Allen scramble drill now. Josh is rushing

00:12:28.799 --> 00:12:31.940
yards over expectation minus two for the season.

00:12:32.340 --> 00:12:35.950
Teams are really aware of where he is. especially

00:12:35.950 --> 00:12:38.629
in pure passing downs, and they're doing a great

00:12:38.629 --> 00:12:41.730
job keeping contain on him. So the traditional

00:12:41.730 --> 00:12:44.750
run game has needed absolutely to be a piece

00:12:44.750 --> 00:12:47.450
of this offensive success early on in the season,

00:12:47.970 --> 00:12:50.009
and Cook is a big reason why it is. So I agree

00:12:50.009 --> 00:12:52.169
with you, dude. I think better. Absolutely better.

00:12:53.909 --> 00:12:55.809
All right, I won't talk about the past catchers.

00:12:55.889 --> 00:12:58.850
Let's start with Dalton Kincaid. Lots of lots

00:12:58.850 --> 00:13:00.990
of I wouldn't say expectations, but a lot of

00:13:00.990 --> 00:13:02.809
like, dude, this has got to be the year where

00:13:02.809 --> 00:13:04.990
you do something. Where are you at with Kincaid

00:13:04.990 --> 00:13:08.509
so far? Same or worse? I mean, through three

00:13:08.509 --> 00:13:10.990
games, he's had some of his highest target percentage,

00:13:11.210 --> 00:13:13.169
highest catch percentage, highest yards after

00:13:13.169 --> 00:13:15.889
catch. He's doing excellent because he's being

00:13:15.889 --> 00:13:18.370
focused on as a key piece of the offense and

00:13:18.370 --> 00:13:20.529
he's delivering, even if it's only two or three

00:13:20.529 --> 00:13:22.950
catches per game. I think that matters. He's

00:13:22.950 --> 00:13:26.309
been in the end zone. I think that it's what

00:13:26.309 --> 00:13:28.850
we always kind of wanted to see. We never needed

00:13:28.850 --> 00:13:32.750
Dalton Kincaid to be prime Travis Kelsey with

00:13:32.750 --> 00:13:35.850
12 targets for eight catches and 100 plus yards

00:13:35.850 --> 00:13:39.080
to touchdowns. We wanted that, but we don't need

00:13:39.080 --> 00:13:41.080
it with this offense. Everyone eats James Cook.

00:13:41.139 --> 00:13:43.480
There's enough talents other than Dalton Kincaid.

00:13:43.840 --> 00:13:46.580
We just need him to be better. And I think he

00:13:46.580 --> 00:13:49.720
is better as a weapon offensively. I think that

00:13:49.720 --> 00:13:52.980
he's miles better as a blocker. And that has

00:13:52.980 --> 00:13:56.360
been the thing I've been most impressed by. is

00:13:56.360 --> 00:13:58.559
that the Bills are not being forced to take him

00:13:58.559 --> 00:14:02.779
out and plug Dawson Knox in on certain key rushdowns.

00:14:02.960 --> 00:14:05.100
They are letting Dalton Kincaid do those pins

00:14:05.100 --> 00:14:07.080
on the edge, the pin pull concepts. They're letting

00:14:07.080 --> 00:14:09.679
him clean out the trash in the slot, being a

00:14:09.679 --> 00:14:13.039
heavy slot. And that I think has shown dividends

00:14:13.039 --> 00:14:14.940
and we'll see how the league adjusts, right?

00:14:15.039 --> 00:14:16.799
In these coming weeks, we'll see how defensive

00:14:16.799 --> 00:14:19.340
coordinators adjust to that because I think that

00:14:19.340 --> 00:14:21.340
the light box percentage when Dalton Kincaid

00:14:21.340 --> 00:14:23.460
is on the field has been significantly higher.

00:14:23.710 --> 00:14:26.450
because they don't expect him to be doing those

00:14:26.450 --> 00:14:29.690
things. But then in the 12 and 13 personnel sets

00:14:29.690 --> 00:14:32.590
with two and three tight ends respectively, the

00:14:32.590 --> 00:14:34.149
Bills are still running. Of course, you know,

00:14:34.149 --> 00:14:37.190
those are pretty heavy sets and he's doing more

00:14:37.190 --> 00:14:39.070
than I think we would have expected from him

00:14:39.070 --> 00:14:41.929
in terms of cleaning out bigger bodies, linebackers,

00:14:42.029 --> 00:14:44.149
and even some, you know, helping out with some

00:14:44.149 --> 00:14:47.529
linemen. Without a doubt. And those 13 personnel

00:14:47.529 --> 00:14:50.289
sets that the Bills have been rolling out there,

00:14:50.289 --> 00:14:53.200
I feel like they're still in the beta phase with

00:14:53.200 --> 00:14:55.539
a lot of that, and I think the key to unlocking

00:14:55.539 --> 00:14:58.360
the ability to take some shot plays downfield

00:14:58.360 --> 00:15:00.940
out of that formation is going to be concave.

00:15:01.220 --> 00:15:03.720
It feels like this is a ramp up for him, particularly

00:15:03.720 --> 00:15:06.820
in those formations, JJ. He's now, I wouldn't

00:15:06.820 --> 00:15:09.200
say a proven concept as a blocker, but good enough

00:15:09.200 --> 00:15:11.340
to where he's no longer the liability he was,

00:15:11.659 --> 00:15:14.340
which is going to hopefully let Brady unlock

00:15:14.340 --> 00:15:17.340
some of the passing ability out of those heavier

00:15:17.340 --> 00:15:19.860
sets. I mean, last season, the Bills were equally

00:15:19.860 --> 00:15:22.679
efficient running and passing out of their jumbo

00:15:22.679 --> 00:15:26.279
sets. They have largely replaced that Alec Anderson

00:15:26.279 --> 00:15:28.740
sixth offensive lineman with these 13 personnel

00:15:28.740 --> 00:15:31.940
sets, and it feels like they've, and it doesn't

00:15:31.940 --> 00:15:34.620
just feel like they have, almost run exclusively

00:15:34.620 --> 00:15:37.779
out of that set. But there is another wrinkle

00:15:37.779 --> 00:15:39.740
I think they can develop, and a lot of it is

00:15:39.740 --> 00:15:43.480
because it concaids continued growth arc. 81

00:15:43.480 --> 00:15:46.740
% catch rate, which is far in a way beyond the

00:15:46.740 --> 00:15:51.100
52 % he was at last year. His overall DVOA is

00:15:51.100 --> 00:15:54.220
31 .1%, which amongst tight ends in the league

00:15:54.220 --> 00:15:57.139
currently ranks sixth in the league, just behind

00:15:57.139 --> 00:15:59.059
a few other, you know, a few other notable names.

00:15:59.179 --> 00:16:01.580
He is, he's having a really great bounce back

00:16:01.580 --> 00:16:04.580
season and most importantly, JJ, the Yak is there.

00:16:04.759 --> 00:16:07.580
16 .2 yards per reception on Yak, which is what

00:16:07.580 --> 00:16:09.840
he was always going to be. Find that soft spot

00:16:09.840 --> 00:16:13.220
in the zone. and then transition to a runner

00:16:13.220 --> 00:16:15.639
with the ball as quickly as you can. And he is

00:16:15.639 --> 00:16:18.419
doing that to great effect so far through the

00:16:18.419 --> 00:16:21.179
first three weeks. All right, man, another pass

00:16:21.179 --> 00:16:22.500
catcher for you. Then I want to start talking

00:16:22.500 --> 00:16:26.019
a little bit about defense. Keyon Coleman, a

00:16:26.019 --> 00:16:28.059
guy who we have regularly pointed to as needing

00:16:28.059 --> 00:16:31.019
to be someone that becomes that deep threat,

00:16:31.240 --> 00:16:33.840
boundary threat for the Buffalo Bills. Better

00:16:33.840 --> 00:16:37.399
same or worse after three weeks. Same, same as

00:16:37.399 --> 00:16:40.200
Lee. late season Keon Coleman who sort of disappeared

00:16:40.200 --> 00:16:43.799
at stretches. I think that he has done more in

00:16:43.799 --> 00:16:46.580
terms of the quick, like he's had a few really

00:16:46.580 --> 00:16:49.659
nice quick release slant games, contested catch

00:16:49.659 --> 00:16:52.019
situations through the first three games. It's

00:16:52.019 --> 00:16:54.240
just such a minimal sample size because it's

00:16:54.240 --> 00:16:56.340
been like three or four targets per game. But

00:16:56.340 --> 00:16:58.480
I think he's been there when they've needed him.

00:16:58.620 --> 00:17:00.379
But some of the same problems that you and I

00:17:00.379 --> 00:17:02.759
pointed to when he was, even before he showed

00:17:02.759 --> 00:17:04.960
up on the team as a rookie prospect coming out

00:17:04.960 --> 00:17:07.470
are still there. he's getting flagged for pushing

00:17:07.470 --> 00:17:10.170
off offensive, you know, a pass interference.

00:17:10.569 --> 00:17:14.210
He is occasionally just completely blanketed

00:17:14.210 --> 00:17:16.970
in coverage to make no window available for Josh

00:17:16.970 --> 00:17:19.390
Allen to throw the ball. And then on top of that,

00:17:19.470 --> 00:17:22.390
he has not, he has not been a deep kind of deep

00:17:22.390 --> 00:17:24.869
threat to this point. He's not been able to stack

00:17:24.869 --> 00:17:29.029
his, his coverage and get behind them. Yes. I

00:17:29.029 --> 00:17:32.430
think the temptation might've been to say Better

00:17:32.430 --> 00:17:35.609
because he is better in a couple of key metrics

00:17:35.609 --> 00:17:39.440
here. Like his catch rate has skyrocketed relative

00:17:39.440 --> 00:17:43.299
to him. Uh, it was sitting at points last season

00:17:43.299 --> 00:17:45.619
at this, at the same time in the year between

00:17:45.619 --> 00:17:49.700
47 and 50%. His catch rate is now about 78%.

00:17:49.700 --> 00:17:52.279
So he is, and I know he had that notable drop

00:17:52.279 --> 00:17:55.160
against Miami. And then after that, uh, they

00:17:55.160 --> 00:17:56.700
literally stopped throwing him the ball in week

00:17:56.700 --> 00:18:00.619
three, but his catch rate has improved. Um, he

00:18:00.619 --> 00:18:03.000
of course had, he was so huge in that comeback

00:18:03.000 --> 00:18:07.119
against Baltimore and. I think too, you know,

00:18:07.400 --> 00:18:10.140
they want to use him. He's averaging six targets

00:18:10.140 --> 00:18:12.259
per game, which is number one out of that wide

00:18:12.259 --> 00:18:14.539
receiver room, more than even Khalil Shakir at

00:18:14.539 --> 00:18:17.599
this point. And again, that's went after the

00:18:17.599 --> 00:18:19.559
Miami game in week three, when they stopped using

00:18:19.559 --> 00:18:21.440
him, I think after like that drop in the second

00:18:21.440 --> 00:18:23.980
quarter. So he's still leading the league team

00:18:23.980 --> 00:18:28.839
and targets. He, he's a guy they so need to unlock,

00:18:28.880 --> 00:18:31.190
but I agree with you at this point. It's the

00:18:31.190 --> 00:18:33.990
same, despite those boosts and metrics, he has

00:18:33.990 --> 00:18:37.130
not ultimately become that deep boundary threat

00:18:37.130 --> 00:18:39.049
that they really need to take the roof off of

00:18:39.049 --> 00:18:42.009
opposing defenses. And it shows as we talked

00:18:42.009 --> 00:18:44.170
about with Josh constantly needing to look at

00:18:44.170 --> 00:18:46.569
for second windows and the lack of explosives

00:18:46.569 --> 00:18:49.029
coming out of the passing game in structure,

00:18:49.269 --> 00:18:52.049
right? In structure. Coleman has got to be a

00:18:52.049 --> 00:18:54.880
piece of that. But, you know, his separation

00:18:54.880 --> 00:18:57.019
numbers still aren't great. He can't seem to

00:18:57.019 --> 00:18:58.720
get off the line of scrimmage clean and press

00:18:58.720 --> 00:19:01.119
man situations. Teams just have a playbook for

00:19:01.119 --> 00:19:04.559
how they're going to guard him. And until there

00:19:04.559 --> 00:19:06.980
is some individual, either to one of two things,

00:19:07.599 --> 00:19:10.279
individual development with Coleman where he

00:19:10.279 --> 00:19:12.940
becomes a little bit better in physical situations

00:19:12.940 --> 00:19:16.140
off the line of scrimmage. Or again, if Brady

00:19:16.140 --> 00:19:18.839
can figure out a way. to scheme him more open

00:19:18.839 --> 00:19:21.160
off the line, put him in some stack situations,

00:19:21.599 --> 00:19:23.900
put him in that power slot, put, God, put him

00:19:23.900 --> 00:19:26.079
in emotion, just anything to get this guy a free

00:19:26.079 --> 00:19:28.740
release off the line, as opposed to right now

00:19:28.740 --> 00:19:31.279
he's lining up at that X boundary wide receiver

00:19:31.279 --> 00:19:34.259
position, 81 % of the time, one -on -one with

00:19:34.259 --> 00:19:37.960
an opposing DB, he's just never gonna be truly

00:19:37.960 --> 00:19:41.480
successful in that scenario. You know who he

00:19:41.480 --> 00:19:44.509
reminds me of, JJ? Who's that? Do you remember

00:19:44.509 --> 00:19:48.549
Tyler Boyd, the big powerful slot for Cincinnati

00:19:48.549 --> 00:19:51.349
back in the day? Yep. Love, love Tyler Boyd's

00:19:51.349 --> 00:19:55.589
game later in his career. Yeah. He, and listen,

00:19:56.109 --> 00:19:58.470
he had T Higgins and he had Jamar chase also

00:19:58.470 --> 00:20:00.849
taking a lot of attention off. So it's not an

00:20:00.849 --> 00:20:03.450
apples to apples comparison, but I mean, he was

00:20:03.450 --> 00:20:07.259
a big slower. wide receiver that struggled to

00:20:07.259 --> 00:20:09.740
get separation. Cincinnati shifting him into

00:20:09.740 --> 00:20:12.160
the slot literally changed his career, changed

00:20:12.160 --> 00:20:14.940
his career forever. And you just wonder if Keon

00:20:14.940 --> 00:20:17.359
Coleman needs a similar schematic change. Well,

00:20:17.440 --> 00:20:19.859
and to me, I have a question of whether or not

00:20:19.859 --> 00:20:22.920
they're not doing that because they haven't yet

00:20:22.920 --> 00:20:25.640
given up hope that he's going to be able to learn

00:20:25.640 --> 00:20:29.099
to use his physicality to break through that

00:20:29.099 --> 00:20:31.359
kind of coverage, press coverage on the outside.

00:20:31.619 --> 00:20:34.599
I just feel like If once we start seeing Keon

00:20:34.599 --> 00:20:37.380
Coleman in the heavy slot, we can pretty much

00:20:37.380 --> 00:20:39.640
chalk it up that they're considering him not

00:20:39.640 --> 00:20:41.819
an outside receiver anymore. Even if it's just

00:20:41.819 --> 00:20:45.839
a spot duty in that position, I think it's kind

00:20:45.839 --> 00:20:48.059
of a concession to, oh, he's not going to get

00:20:48.059 --> 00:20:49.980
this skill set, so we got to do something else.

00:20:50.200 --> 00:20:52.440
I know. And it clogs up the middle even more,

00:20:52.700 --> 00:20:55.920
too, because Josh Palmer, who was also MIA in

00:20:55.920 --> 00:20:59.279
that Miami game, he's so much more effective

00:20:59.279 --> 00:21:01.140
on dig routes into the middle of the field. If

00:21:01.140 --> 00:21:03.500
you add Coleman to that equation, I get it. It

00:21:03.500 --> 00:21:05.539
just clogs up the middle. That's it, too. They

00:21:05.539 --> 00:21:07.460
have too many options for that position because

00:21:07.460 --> 00:21:10.940
then you have Kincaid, even Knox and Shakir all

00:21:10.940 --> 00:21:14.220
look better in the slot than they ever would

00:21:14.220 --> 00:21:18.269
outside. I know. I know. They need him to be

00:21:18.269 --> 00:21:20.170
an outside receiver. Like that's why they haven't

00:21:20.170 --> 00:21:21.410
schemed him there. Cause they're just like, we,

00:21:21.710 --> 00:21:23.789
you got to do this job. Like nobody else on this

00:21:23.789 --> 00:21:26.109
roster is able to do this for you. Tyrell Savers

00:21:26.109 --> 00:21:28.589
is like a redemption project from the practice

00:21:28.589 --> 00:21:30.450
squad to just try to get something going there.

00:21:30.829 --> 00:21:33.569
I get it. I know. I know. It's, it's just, it

00:21:33.569 --> 00:21:39.069
feels like such a mismatch of skill to positionality.

00:21:39.329 --> 00:21:41.130
You know what I mean? But you're absolutely right.

00:21:41.230 --> 00:21:43.529
They need him to be this and they're going to

00:21:43.529 --> 00:21:45.740
force it even if it doesn't work. Right. Yep.

00:21:46.380 --> 00:21:48.279
All right, man. Let's transition to the defense.

00:21:48.400 --> 00:21:50.619
I want to talk about defensive line after three

00:21:50.619 --> 00:21:52.359
weeks here. And there were some things I think

00:21:52.359 --> 00:21:55.799
we saw that you and I would both agree were concerning

00:21:55.799 --> 00:21:59.319
from the D line and both the pass rush and run

00:21:59.319 --> 00:22:01.720
defense against Miami. So let's just start with

00:22:01.720 --> 00:22:03.700
the pass rush aspect of this defensive line.

00:22:03.740 --> 00:22:05.500
After all that investment in the off season,

00:22:06.000 --> 00:22:08.579
zero sacks on Tua Tonga -Valoa in week three.

00:22:08.799 --> 00:22:11.319
JJ, this pass rush at the defensive line, better

00:22:11.319 --> 00:22:15.019
same or worse than last year? Somehow worse.

00:22:15.859 --> 00:22:18.140
It really is. Right? Like, I didn't think that

00:22:18.140 --> 00:22:21.559
you could put so much draft capital and signing

00:22:21.559 --> 00:22:25.140
Bosa and moving on from Von Miller into a defensive

00:22:25.140 --> 00:22:26.839
line and be worse. And like, that's not to say,

00:22:26.880 --> 00:22:28.579
I think we both talk about it. Anybody who listens

00:22:28.579 --> 00:22:31.019
to the pot knows we love what Bosa has brought

00:22:31.019 --> 00:22:34.000
to the table. Just, homie needs some help. And

00:22:34.000 --> 00:22:36.319
Greg Rousseau looks bad. Like, he just doesn't

00:22:36.319 --> 00:22:39.000
look good. He has not made an impact in multiple

00:22:39.000 --> 00:22:42.640
games now. He's been completely absent. and absolutely

00:22:42.640 --> 00:22:44.500
not earning the contract they signed him to.

00:22:44.920 --> 00:22:46.960
And then the rooks and the defensive interior,

00:22:47.279 --> 00:22:50.619
like literally gold star to Joey Bosa for probably

00:22:50.619 --> 00:22:54.359
70 % of his snaps and to Daquan Jones for about

00:22:54.359 --> 00:22:56.900
the same amount of his snaps. And then everybody

00:22:56.900 --> 00:22:58.859
else needs to be better because holy crap, they're

00:22:58.859 --> 00:23:01.059
just missing everything. Like their pass rush

00:23:01.059 --> 00:23:05.099
is terrible. Yeah, the pass rush in both pressure

00:23:05.099 --> 00:23:08.200
rate and total sex recorded has taken a massive

00:23:08.200 --> 00:23:10.500
dip from last season Massive dip from the same

00:23:10.500 --> 00:23:13.799
time last season and they have not played I would

00:23:13.799 --> 00:23:16.059
argue I mean listen even Baltimore his issues

00:23:16.059 --> 00:23:18.099
along their offensive line, but they've played

00:23:18.099 --> 00:23:21.980
Baltimore the Jets who you know without Elijah

00:23:21.980 --> 00:23:25.539
Vera Tucker And then the Miami Dolphins largely

00:23:25.539 --> 00:23:28.359
rolling out a backup offensive line in week three

00:23:28.539 --> 00:23:31.940
and zero sacks on Tuatunga Valoa, who in the

00:23:31.940 --> 00:23:34.519
two games prior had been sacked to combine eight

00:23:34.519 --> 00:23:37.000
times. I mean, it's getting to the point where

00:23:37.000 --> 00:23:39.279
it is inexcusable. It's inexcusable. That's what

00:23:39.279 --> 00:23:41.400
I mean. It's like you look at that. We both guessed

00:23:41.400 --> 00:23:44.319
that they'd get over three sacks in the game

00:23:44.319 --> 00:23:46.680
against the Dolphins. They recorded zero sacks,

00:23:47.000 --> 00:23:49.720
a few pressures, no QB hits. Like, are you kidding

00:23:49.720 --> 00:23:52.200
me? What are you doing? How is that possible?

00:23:52.960 --> 00:23:56.640
The only person I will point to that had a single

00:23:56.640 --> 00:23:59.349
rep that I thought was solid, Was Dion Walker.

00:24:00.029 --> 00:24:01.910
And so he's causing me to eat crow a little bit.

00:24:01.990 --> 00:24:03.369
I'm still not going to write him. I'm not going

00:24:03.369 --> 00:24:05.750
to draw him a card unless he shows up. Cause

00:24:05.750 --> 00:24:08.450
my, my, my deadline was week four, unless he

00:24:08.450 --> 00:24:10.849
absolutely crushes it against the saints. Sorry,

00:24:10.950 --> 00:24:13.710
homie, no card for you. You didn't prove me wrong.

00:24:14.650 --> 00:24:16.890
I think he's played. Listen, he's had a couple

00:24:16.890 --> 00:24:18.930
of reps where he's like been blown out of his

00:24:18.930 --> 00:24:21.190
cleats, right? There's no promise. I didn't promise

00:24:21.190 --> 00:24:23.970
a card for somebody who's had some reps of good

00:24:23.970 --> 00:24:28.410
play and mostly bad. Thank what's that? I think

00:24:28.410 --> 00:24:32.089
on average, Walker's been one of the few shining

00:24:32.089 --> 00:24:35.069
stars on this particular defensive line. And

00:24:35.069 --> 00:24:36.990
listen, yes, we have to be mindful that Ed Oliver

00:24:36.990 --> 00:24:39.450
has only played one game up to this point, right?

00:24:39.769 --> 00:24:42.170
After literally single -handedly winning the

00:24:42.170 --> 00:24:43.930
game for the Buffalo Bills on the defensive side

00:24:43.930 --> 00:24:46.609
of the ball against Baltimore. So there is a

00:24:46.609 --> 00:24:50.890
school of thought that I get where you're putting

00:24:50.890 --> 00:24:53.730
rookies. in Sanders and Walker in a position

00:24:53.730 --> 00:24:56.490
that they're not ready for yet. Daquan Jones

00:24:56.490 --> 00:24:58.910
was washed last year, he looks washed this year.

00:24:59.210 --> 00:25:03.210
But you are having to rely on those wily veterans

00:25:03.210 --> 00:25:07.289
in Daquan Jones and Joey Bosa at a much higher

00:25:07.289 --> 00:25:09.789
clip than you were ever hoping to. I mean, Bosa's

00:25:09.789 --> 00:25:13.769
playing 72 % of all snaps right now. He's been

00:25:13.769 --> 00:25:15.829
great, but that's not sustainable. No, it's just

00:25:15.829 --> 00:25:18.069
a countdown to his next giant season -ending

00:25:18.069 --> 00:25:20.940
injury. Exactly. And the younger guys have not

00:25:20.940 --> 00:25:24.079
been put in a position where they can have been

00:25:24.079 --> 00:25:27.059
able to contribute right away. So yes, when Oliver

00:25:27.059 --> 00:25:29.779
comes back, it is going to make a big difference.

00:25:30.180 --> 00:25:31.880
And everyone keeps saying, well, you know, let's

00:25:31.880 --> 00:25:34.039
get to week six, let's get to week six because

00:25:34.039 --> 00:25:37.039
we're going to get Larry Ogunjobi and Michael

00:25:37.039 --> 00:25:40.950
Hoyt back. And I think we are in trouble. If

00:25:40.950 --> 00:25:44.369
our, the success of our defense hinges on both

00:25:44.369 --> 00:25:47.750
of those guys making major contributions. I like

00:25:47.750 --> 00:25:50.529
Hoyt is a chess piece. The Rams were able to

00:25:50.529 --> 00:25:53.369
do some really fun stuff with dime looks because

00:25:53.369 --> 00:25:56.089
of his versatility, but Hogan -Joby was bad last

00:25:56.089 --> 00:25:59.230
year and the Bills already play dime without,

00:25:59.349 --> 00:26:01.589
without Michael Hoyt there, right? So listen,

00:26:01.589 --> 00:26:04.509
it feels like the defensive line, similar to

00:26:04.509 --> 00:26:06.710
the Ken Coleman situation, you just need the

00:26:06.710 --> 00:26:09.329
guys that you put in those positions to hit their

00:26:09.329 --> 00:26:11.779
ceilings. You just got to figure it out. Yeah.

00:26:11.880 --> 00:26:13.220
Well, and I think that the biggest thing, and

00:26:13.220 --> 00:26:14.859
this is like, I feel like we're broken records.

00:26:15.000 --> 00:26:16.920
It's been like five seasons of the pod and we've

00:26:16.920 --> 00:26:20.660
never, we've never been like, ha, finally consistent

00:26:20.660 --> 00:26:24.500
defensive line play. What we've asked for, for

00:26:24.500 --> 00:26:27.720
half of a decade, you know, it's just like, like

00:26:27.720 --> 00:26:30.519
the last time, the last time the Bills had a

00:26:30.519 --> 00:26:32.460
defensive line that week to week to week made

00:26:32.460 --> 00:26:35.779
impacts in games was Rex Ryan. It was the Mario

00:26:35.779 --> 00:26:38.319
Williams years. That was it. Like crazy. Yeah.

00:26:38.420 --> 00:26:40.579
Mario Williams, Kyle Williams, you know, Marcel

00:26:40.579 --> 00:26:43.920
Darius, that whole cold front at that time, you

00:26:43.920 --> 00:26:46.240
know, Lorenzo Alexander, like that was the last

00:26:46.240 --> 00:26:47.900
time that I was like, Oh, everything else can

00:26:47.900 --> 00:26:51.279
be absolute trash, but we can count on the defensive

00:26:51.279 --> 00:26:53.500
line showing up and making a positive impact

00:26:53.500 --> 00:26:55.380
and maybe stealing a possession or doing something.

00:26:55.940 --> 00:26:59.160
Right. Yep. Absolutely. And I don't know, man.

00:26:59.579 --> 00:27:01.660
I mean, I think we've kind of bundled the rushing

00:27:01.660 --> 00:27:05.240
the rush talk in with us, but it's the same.

00:27:05.359 --> 00:27:09.009
It's it is. and somehow maybe worse. I mean,

00:27:09.069 --> 00:27:12.869
when the Bills are playing light boxes at the

00:27:12.869 --> 00:27:15.049
lowest clip they have in the McDermott era, only

00:27:15.049 --> 00:27:19.029
about 37%, according to next -gen stats, on rushing

00:27:19.029 --> 00:27:21.549
attempts from opposing teams, but they are allowing.

00:27:21.869 --> 00:27:23.990
So light boxes, you need the defensive line to

00:27:23.990 --> 00:27:26.809
do work. On light boxes, when they deploy them,

00:27:26.829 --> 00:27:30.549
JJ, they're allowing seven yards of carry, which

00:27:30.549 --> 00:27:33.329
is the fourth worst mark in the league. I mean,

00:27:33.650 --> 00:27:35.690
the defensive line through three weeks has been

00:27:35.690 --> 00:27:39.220
bad. And listen, the Saints are going to give

00:27:39.220 --> 00:27:40.960
us a lot of false metrics, I think, because that

00:27:40.960 --> 00:27:43.960
is not a good team. But if this, if this Buffalo

00:27:43.960 --> 00:27:45.960
Bills defensive line struggles against Elvin

00:27:45.960 --> 00:27:48.839
Kamara and struggles against Spencer Rattler,

00:27:48.940 --> 00:27:50.799
you know, I think, I think it is time to hit

00:27:50.799 --> 00:27:53.680
the panic button after four weeks of not great

00:27:53.680 --> 00:27:56.019
competition in the defensive line underachieving.

00:27:56.019 --> 00:27:58.640
All right. Let's talk about the linebacker room.

00:27:58.750 --> 00:28:01.690
Terrell Bernard, Matt Milano. I had posited at

00:28:01.690 --> 00:28:03.769
the beginning of the season, should this be the

00:28:03.769 --> 00:28:05.769
season where Doreen Williams finally gets the

00:28:05.769 --> 00:28:08.269
start over Matt Milano because of the injury

00:28:08.269 --> 00:28:10.529
history, the sluggishness we saw in Milano came

00:28:10.529 --> 00:28:14.230
back last year. Milano had a pretty decent preseason

00:28:14.230 --> 00:28:17.730
and then the season started. So JJ, let's talk

00:28:17.730 --> 00:28:20.490
about this linebacker room. Better, same or worse

00:28:20.490 --> 00:28:23.769
from last year? I want to say worse, but it's

00:28:23.769 --> 00:28:26.869
just the same, which is... We are missing Matt

00:28:26.869 --> 00:28:29.190
Milano like usual. Terrell Bernard doesn't look

00:28:29.190 --> 00:28:31.509
great without Milano next to him. For some reason,

00:28:31.690 --> 00:28:34.609
that's like the absolute key to his performance

00:28:34.609 --> 00:28:37.089
is to have Matt Milano with him. And then, you

00:28:37.089 --> 00:28:38.690
know, I like Dorian Williams. He's done some

00:28:38.690 --> 00:28:40.690
nice things. I think Shaq Thompson has shown

00:28:40.690 --> 00:28:43.529
to be like a pretty solid veteran pickup. He's

00:28:43.529 --> 00:28:46.589
had some impact in games and in a spot, in a

00:28:46.589 --> 00:28:48.589
spot fill -in type of role. I think it's perfect

00:28:48.589 --> 00:28:50.869
for him to do that. He's got some juice every

00:28:50.869 --> 00:28:52.549
time you see him on the field. but he doesn't

00:28:52.549 --> 00:28:54.509
play a lot of snaps. And I think that's proper.

00:28:56.069 --> 00:28:59.130
Yeah, I mean, it's, it's same, same, but I'm

00:28:59.130 --> 00:29:01.569
tempted to say worse because I'm tempted to say

00:29:01.569 --> 00:29:03.609
worse because we're not seeing develop growth

00:29:03.609 --> 00:29:06.390
and development from Bernard or Williams. Like

00:29:06.390 --> 00:29:09.549
those guys haven't looked like they took, I would

00:29:09.549 --> 00:29:12.329
say even Keon Coleman has looked like he's made

00:29:12.329 --> 00:29:14.809
more of a step toward being a professional at

00:29:14.809 --> 00:29:18.289
his position than either of those linebackers.

00:29:18.460 --> 00:29:22.440
Yes, and Bernard also, like Rousseau, beneficiary

00:29:22.440 --> 00:29:25.500
of an extension here in the off -season. You

00:29:25.500 --> 00:29:29.180
know, Dorian Williams, he's getting Snapshare.

00:29:29.500 --> 00:29:31.940
He's getting about 31 % of the Snapshare out

00:29:31.940 --> 00:29:34.960
there, and you haven't seen... a massive step

00:29:34.960 --> 00:29:36.460
from him. Like, you know what you're going to

00:29:36.460 --> 00:29:37.880
get when he's out there. He's going to bite on

00:29:37.880 --> 00:29:39.940
play action, but he's going to be a missile in

00:29:39.940 --> 00:29:42.279
the run game, which as we have talked about light

00:29:42.279 --> 00:29:45.400
boxes. Dorian Williams, if you look at a lot

00:29:45.400 --> 00:29:48.460
of film, he's the reason why the Buffalo Bills

00:29:48.460 --> 00:29:50.920
are only seven yards per carry in light boxes

00:29:50.920 --> 00:29:53.700
and not 12, right? Like, he's really coming in

00:29:53.700 --> 00:29:55.400
and he's covering up a lot of mistakes. I mean,

00:29:55.700 --> 00:29:58.859
Williams is great as a run defender, but... coverage,

00:29:58.859 --> 00:30:00.519
which is what the Bills asked their linebackers

00:30:00.519 --> 00:30:03.180
to do. Still no real growth there. And you know,

00:30:03.279 --> 00:30:05.599
Bernard, there is an argument to be made. He's

00:30:05.599 --> 00:30:07.960
playing well, but has he hit his ceiling, right?

00:30:08.180 --> 00:30:10.200
Is this the highest gear we're ever going to

00:30:10.200 --> 00:30:12.640
see out of him? Which is why I'm tempted like

00:30:12.640 --> 00:30:15.839
you to say same. Cause Milano looks kind of like

00:30:15.839 --> 00:30:18.720
he did last season, which is he's not always

00:30:18.720 --> 00:30:21.059
in the right position and run defense. They're

00:30:21.059 --> 00:30:23.700
using him to shoot the gap more in blitz situations

00:30:23.700 --> 00:30:25.359
with the Bills, which the Bills are also doing

00:30:25.359 --> 00:30:29.380
at a higher level. Again, I do think as a rational

00:30:29.380 --> 00:30:32.700
brained person, we need to hold final judgment

00:30:32.700 --> 00:30:35.579
until the bills have all of their pieces back

00:30:35.579 --> 00:30:38.259
on defense that they're looking to deploy in

00:30:38.259 --> 00:30:41.519
this scheme and reevaluate come week 10 or week

00:30:41.519 --> 00:30:46.559
11. But right now. Right now, it's not looking

00:30:46.559 --> 00:30:49.400
like massive steps have been taken by this defensive

00:30:49.400 --> 00:30:51.299
unit as compared to last year. All right, man,

00:30:51.299 --> 00:30:53.160
one more. And this is probably another one where

00:30:53.160 --> 00:30:54.779
it's like, well, we don't have all of our guys

00:30:54.779 --> 00:30:58.559
in, so who knows? But CB2, better, same or worse

00:30:58.559 --> 00:31:01.059
from last year? We got Trey White taking on the

00:31:01.059 --> 00:31:04.039
Razul Douglas role. I mean, I'd say better. I'd

00:31:04.039 --> 00:31:07.579
say they've looked a little better, but they're

00:31:07.579 --> 00:31:10.200
giving up everything on third down still, right?

00:31:10.200 --> 00:31:13.200
Like, that's the same part, I would say. The

00:31:13.200 --> 00:31:16.940
better part for me has been there's been more

00:31:16.940 --> 00:31:20.940
competitive past breakups and they're more competitive

00:31:20.940 --> 00:31:23.559
at the catch point than I think Rasool Douglas

00:31:23.559 --> 00:31:26.319
was providing last year. It's looked better in

00:31:26.319 --> 00:31:29.640
that regard. But the thing that it's tough because

00:31:29.640 --> 00:31:32.160
it's a mixed bag, we're getting better from Trey

00:31:32.160 --> 00:31:33.779
White than we did from Rasool Douglas, which

00:31:33.779 --> 00:31:36.900
is surprising for me to say because I did not

00:31:36.900 --> 00:31:40.420
expect that. But we're getting worse from Benford.

00:31:41.179 --> 00:31:44.099
or yeah, from Benford, then from Benford, right?

00:31:44.299 --> 00:31:46.880
Like he's, he like not the kind of player that

00:31:46.880 --> 00:31:48.420
I would think takes it out of gear when he gets

00:31:48.420 --> 00:31:50.799
paid, but has just looked like he's gotten a

00:31:50.799 --> 00:31:53.420
rocky start because he didn't play very many

00:31:53.420 --> 00:31:56.819
snaps in the pre -season. He has been in position

00:31:56.819 --> 00:32:00.240
all the time. Like his, you know, expected yards

00:32:00.240 --> 00:32:02.759
after catch are super, they're like some of the

00:32:02.759 --> 00:32:04.839
lowest in the league. Like he puts the guys on

00:32:04.839 --> 00:32:06.779
the ground if they catch a ball on his coverage,

00:32:07.740 --> 00:32:12.000
but. he has let too many balls come into his

00:32:12.000 --> 00:32:13.799
coverage and be caught. And I think that's the

00:32:13.799 --> 00:32:16.960
big problem. He's looked like he's better in

00:32:16.960 --> 00:32:19.799
run fits. He has had some amazing run blitzes

00:32:19.799 --> 00:32:21.579
and blown up some plays and that's awesome. I

00:32:21.579 --> 00:32:23.019
think those are the ones you point to and you

00:32:23.019 --> 00:32:26.420
say, okay, he's probably the best if not top

00:32:26.420 --> 00:32:29.799
three run defending corner in the league. And

00:32:29.799 --> 00:32:32.160
I think that's part of the reason he got paid

00:32:32.160 --> 00:32:33.619
because that's something that Sean McDermott

00:32:33.619 --> 00:32:35.920
values so highly. But I think that I'm expecting

00:32:35.920 --> 00:32:38.730
more from his coverage. Confidence gonna happen

00:32:38.730 --> 00:32:41.089
because I think he's an excellent player. But

00:32:41.089 --> 00:32:43.349
yeah, I'm gonna say same, but I'm tempted to

00:32:43.349 --> 00:32:47.529
say worse Yeah, I actually think I actually think

00:32:47.529 --> 00:32:50.450
same I think there can be an argument for better

00:32:50.450 --> 00:32:53.509
too. But listen, it's a relative scale Razul

00:32:53.509 --> 00:32:56.130
Douglas last year was just smoked across the

00:32:56.130 --> 00:32:59.829
middle and Teams were killing Buffalo in the

00:32:59.829 --> 00:33:03.349
quick game Chua in week three had his longest

00:33:03.349 --> 00:33:07.029
time to throw of the season. It was like 2 .86

00:33:07.029 --> 00:33:10.289
seconds, which for him is an eternity. This is

00:33:10.289 --> 00:33:12.230
a guy last year who got the ball out in 2 .2

00:33:12.230 --> 00:33:15.069
seconds. So the Bills coverage unit did what

00:33:15.069 --> 00:33:17.329
it needed to do and locked up those speedy wide

00:33:17.329 --> 00:33:21.569
receivers and Devon Achan for the requisite over

00:33:21.569 --> 00:33:23.549
two and a half seconds that you need for your

00:33:23.549 --> 00:33:26.509
defensive line to then get pressure on the opposing

00:33:26.509 --> 00:33:31.039
QB. It's impossible to ask This defensive back

00:33:31.039 --> 00:33:35.180
seven to stay in coverage for over, oh, for almost

00:33:35.180 --> 00:33:36.619
three seconds. They're just not going to do it.

00:33:36.619 --> 00:33:39.180
They don't have the athletes to do it. I think

00:33:39.180 --> 00:33:42.180
part of this to JJ, what we're seeing, and again,

00:33:42.380 --> 00:33:44.720
the argument I'm making is that it's better.

00:33:45.380 --> 00:33:47.859
The bills are also playing left handed on defense.

00:33:48.039 --> 00:33:50.000
They're not dropping back into that soft zone

00:33:50.000 --> 00:33:52.160
as much as they did last year, which is their

00:33:52.160 --> 00:33:54.339
bread and butter and the comfort level for a

00:33:54.339 --> 00:33:56.359
lot of those players, Benford and white included.

00:33:56.640 --> 00:33:58.839
They've had to blitz more. And they've had to

00:33:58.839 --> 00:34:00.920
play more man because they're selling out to

00:34:00.920 --> 00:34:03.500
stop the run, right? Everything I think we've

00:34:03.500 --> 00:34:06.200
seen is a trickle down from the poor play and

00:34:06.200 --> 00:34:09.360
the poorest play of the defensive line. So in

00:34:09.360 --> 00:34:12.099
that context, overall, I get Trey White's nearest

00:34:12.099 --> 00:34:15.659
defender ratings are not great, but he was staying

00:34:15.659 --> 00:34:18.159
with Jalen Waddle. He was staying with Tyreek

00:34:18.159 --> 00:34:20.559
Hill, staying with Daman HN out of the backfield

00:34:20.559 --> 00:34:22.980
for as long as you would expect a player of his

00:34:22.980 --> 00:34:26.340
caliber to do and then some. Yes, he broke down

00:34:26.340 --> 00:34:27.960
his nearest defender, but that was only after

00:34:27.960 --> 00:34:30.639
the defensive line failed to do their job and

00:34:30.639 --> 00:34:34.440
get to Tua in 2 .5 seconds, right? Or let Tua

00:34:34.440 --> 00:34:38.239
break contain, which Tua let Tua roll out and

00:34:38.239 --> 00:34:40.840
break it in. Yeah, I think you're absolutely

00:34:40.840 --> 00:34:43.260
right. And I you know, that's an excellent point

00:34:43.260 --> 00:34:45.480
that I I was thinking of as you were speaking

00:34:45.480 --> 00:34:48.539
to is like we can't we can't even rate the CB

00:34:48.539 --> 00:34:51.000
unit or the back the safeties either to that

00:34:51.000 --> 00:34:53.690
regard when it comes to coverage. Because we

00:34:53.690 --> 00:34:55.889
know the defense is predicated on the pass rush

00:34:55.889 --> 00:34:58.690
and coverage working together. That's why the

00:34:58.690 --> 00:35:01.389
one exceptional play against the Dolphins where

00:35:01.389 --> 00:35:04.269
Deon Walker had a good pass rush rep was the

00:35:04.269 --> 00:35:06.690
play where Terrell Bernard intercepted the ball.

00:35:07.110 --> 00:35:11.289
That's what they talk to. That's how Sean McDermott

00:35:11.289 --> 00:35:15.429
has been top ten in five or ten straight years

00:35:15.429 --> 00:35:18.530
of takeaway percentage. It's because his defense

00:35:18.530 --> 00:35:20.489
is built so that everything kind of works as

00:35:20.489 --> 00:35:22.940
a unit together. Be your one 11th, right? And

00:35:22.940 --> 00:35:26.739
I think that the corner, the back seven are now

00:35:26.739 --> 00:35:31.260
are having to play, you know, two of the 11th

00:35:31.260 --> 00:35:34.920
each because the front five aren't doing it.

00:35:35.139 --> 00:35:37.400
My math is all over the place on that, but it

00:35:37.400 --> 00:35:40.019
holds. It does. It does. My kids are working

00:35:40.019 --> 00:35:42.139
on fractions for homework right now. I will double

00:35:42.139 --> 00:35:44.360
check this and put any corrections in the show

00:35:44.360 --> 00:35:47.139
notes. Thank your children for me. I will, absolutely.

00:35:47.599 --> 00:35:49.340
All right, JJ, I think we've alluded to this,

00:35:49.420 --> 00:35:51.199
but I want to bundle it together. I want to talk

00:35:51.199 --> 00:35:53.119
about third down, because this was a point of

00:35:53.119 --> 00:35:55.039
contention for the Bills and their need to fix

00:35:55.039 --> 00:35:59.039
here. Third down the season, JJ, and in specifically

00:35:59.039 --> 00:36:02.780
third and long situations, third and seven, right?

00:36:03.159 --> 00:36:05.500
Better, same or worse from last year? It's hard.

00:36:05.619 --> 00:36:07.980
It's better because Josh Allen knows where to

00:36:07.980 --> 00:36:10.300
go with the ball. Worse because there's nowhere

00:36:10.300 --> 00:36:12.980
to go with the ball. On those like... critical

00:36:12.980 --> 00:36:15.260
doubts, right? Like nobody's doing him favors

00:36:15.260 --> 00:36:17.980
of getting in position. And then he also is reluctant

00:36:17.980 --> 00:36:19.860
to run to get some of those. There are some third

00:36:19.860 --> 00:36:21.440
down conversions he could have made with his

00:36:21.440 --> 00:36:23.579
legs, but I think through coaching and through

00:36:23.579 --> 00:36:25.960
his own intuition, he's choosing not to take

00:36:25.960 --> 00:36:28.039
those hits because he knows it's not the, this

00:36:28.039 --> 00:36:30.980
isn't the sellout time of the year yet. And so

00:36:30.980 --> 00:36:32.739
he's playing a little bit smarter with the football,

00:36:32.800 --> 00:36:35.340
which I think is good, but I think it's hurting

00:36:35.340 --> 00:36:38.900
the offense in some ways. Yeah, the Buffalo Bills

00:36:38.900 --> 00:36:41.559
third down offense. And again, for a team that

00:36:41.559 --> 00:36:44.619
is scoring 30 points a game regularly against

00:36:44.619 --> 00:36:46.480
their opponents, you wouldn't think this was

00:36:46.480 --> 00:36:49.760
a problem. But their third and long offense is

00:36:49.760 --> 00:36:52.639
currently sitting at 18th in the league at EPA

00:36:52.639 --> 00:36:58.199
per play at minus 0 .02. Teams are in the average

00:36:58.199 --> 00:37:00.340
separation rate for a wide receiver room goes

00:37:00.340 --> 00:37:03.110
down by almost a half yard. teams and we saw

00:37:03.110 --> 00:37:05.769
this with Miami again with a backup secondary.

00:37:06.070 --> 00:37:08.369
They were able to blanket our pass catchers in

00:37:08.369 --> 00:37:10.969
third and long situations, forced Josh to hold

00:37:10.969 --> 00:37:13.750
onto the ball. His time to throw in these third

00:37:13.750 --> 00:37:16.829
long situations is like 3 .8 seconds. Like there's

00:37:16.829 --> 00:37:20.670
just nothing available for him in his first or

00:37:20.670 --> 00:37:23.949
even his second window. Is it a failure of talent?

00:37:24.199 --> 00:37:27.139
Is it a failure of structure? I don't know. The

00:37:27.139 --> 00:37:29.880
Bills are still a top seven unit in explosive

00:37:29.880 --> 00:37:32.800
plays, but it's coming from Josh operating out

00:37:32.800 --> 00:37:34.940
of the structure of the offense. Nothing that

00:37:34.940 --> 00:37:37.980
the offense scheme, offensive scheme itself is

00:37:37.980 --> 00:37:40.980
creating. And then you have James Cook. The explosives

00:37:40.980 --> 00:37:43.860
are coming in the run game by and large as well.

00:37:44.820 --> 00:37:47.039
So third down offense for the Buffalo Bills,

00:37:47.099 --> 00:37:50.219
I think is a sneaky problem. And one that we

00:37:50.219 --> 00:37:52.829
saw really persist. deep into last season as

00:37:52.829 --> 00:37:54.869
the competition got better in the postseason.

00:37:55.190 --> 00:37:57.550
Teams just, they do not fear this pass catcher

00:37:57.550 --> 00:38:01.550
room at all in those situations. Yeah, they definitely,

00:38:01.690 --> 00:38:03.690
I mean, most teams are willing to go man up with

00:38:03.690 --> 00:38:05.530
anybody that the Bills are putting out there

00:38:05.530 --> 00:38:09.329
and just let it ride, right? Add as much help

00:38:09.329 --> 00:38:12.130
to the pass rush as they want. Yep. Absolutely.

00:38:12.429 --> 00:38:15.949
Absolutely. All right, JJ. I think after three

00:38:15.949 --> 00:38:18.150
weeks, listen, there's a lot of positives about

00:38:18.150 --> 00:38:20.090
this team and then there's a lot of stuff that

00:38:20.409 --> 00:38:22.449
I think we still have some concerns about heading

00:38:22.449 --> 00:38:25.429
into week three. If the Bills blow out the Saints,

00:38:25.590 --> 00:38:27.309
and let's segue into the Saints preview here.

00:38:27.590 --> 00:38:29.849
If the Bills blow out the Saints, I don't know

00:38:29.849 --> 00:38:33.489
that it gives me any more optimism for the issues

00:38:33.489 --> 00:38:35.809
that we've identified here because the Saints,

00:38:35.969 --> 00:38:37.789
I don't think are a great litmus test for that.

00:38:37.909 --> 00:38:39.690
You know what I mean? But if the Bills struggle

00:38:39.690 --> 00:38:42.329
against the Saints, I do think it is time to

00:38:42.329 --> 00:38:44.010
hit the alarm button. So where do you want to

00:38:44.010 --> 00:38:45.730
start? You want to start offense or defense here?

00:38:48.070 --> 00:38:50.269
Saints offense versus the Bills defense because

00:38:50.269 --> 00:38:52.190
I think defense is the greater concern that I

00:38:52.190 --> 00:38:54.530
have right now. And I think that these Saints

00:38:54.530 --> 00:39:01.010
are, so Chris Alave and Alvin Kamara and their

00:39:01.010 --> 00:39:05.150
center, Eric McCoy, end of list when it comes

00:39:05.150 --> 00:39:08.170
to talent on offense, right? Like they have some

00:39:08.170 --> 00:39:10.949
good, I mean, we know Brandon Cooks, he's late,

00:39:10.949 --> 00:39:13.210
late, late, late career Brandon Cooks at this

00:39:13.210 --> 00:39:17.019
point. Rashid Shahid is so fast and he I think

00:39:17.019 --> 00:39:19.019
could give the Bills problems just because that's

00:39:19.019 --> 00:39:21.340
a skill set that Bills sometimes struggle with.

00:39:22.059 --> 00:39:26.079
But I'm not afraid of most of their line. I'm

00:39:26.079 --> 00:39:28.840
not afraid of Jawan Johnson at tight end. Spencer

00:39:28.840 --> 00:39:31.300
Rattler, the notes I have from watching all of

00:39:31.300 --> 00:39:33.860
the Saints games this season are, let's see,

00:39:34.000 --> 00:39:37.719
Rattler, yikes, not a real QB yet. Justin Fields

00:39:37.719 --> 00:39:40.599
is a better thrower. Rattler will run straight

00:39:40.599 --> 00:39:43.050
backwards. which we see in young quarterbacks,

00:39:43.210 --> 00:39:46.369
right? Like he doesn't have a plan when he scrambles

00:39:46.369 --> 00:39:48.630
and will run straight backwards with no actual

00:39:48.630 --> 00:39:51.210
way to get out of it. He has one of the highest

00:39:51.210 --> 00:39:54.230
interception worthy play percentage or interception

00:39:54.230 --> 00:39:56.210
worthy throw percentages in the league. He can

00:39:56.210 --> 00:39:58.750
be told where to throw it. If you set your coverage

00:39:58.750 --> 00:40:01.489
in a certain way, you can funnel passes to like

00:40:01.489 --> 00:40:04.090
the flanks all day long and then just cover them

00:40:04.090 --> 00:40:06.389
up and rally to the football. And he's getting

00:40:06.389 --> 00:40:09.969
his receivers absolutely tattooed on the play

00:40:09.969 --> 00:40:13.039
all the time. I'm surprised more other capacity

00:40:13.039 --> 00:40:15.920
catchers are not crippled right now because that

00:40:15.920 --> 00:40:18.059
dude throws, he throws a ball directly in front

00:40:18.059 --> 00:40:20.019
of somebody with the defender closing on them

00:40:20.019 --> 00:40:24.119
at full speed with the kind of touch that the

00:40:24.119 --> 00:40:25.840
ball's going to reach the person at the same

00:40:25.840 --> 00:40:27.880
time the defender does and they're going to absolutely

00:40:27.880 --> 00:40:30.739
get blown up. If he looks, this is the problem

00:40:30.739 --> 00:40:32.389
I have as a Bills fan though. I feel like he's

00:40:32.389 --> 00:40:34.349
going to show up in Buffalo and people are like,

00:40:34.449 --> 00:40:37.130
oh my gosh, Spencer Rattler, who knew he's the

00:40:37.130 --> 00:40:39.329
hottest young quarterback in the league because

00:40:39.329 --> 00:40:41.530
the Bills are going to play down and he's going

00:40:41.530 --> 00:40:44.429
to just somehow, you know, tear him apart for

00:40:44.429 --> 00:40:46.969
a few quarters. And then the Bills are going

00:40:46.969 --> 00:40:48.869
to have to win it with a last second field goal.

00:40:48.989 --> 00:40:50.929
And I'm going to like poop my pants. You went

00:40:50.929 --> 00:40:53.570
through so many emotions on the Spencer Rattler

00:40:53.570 --> 00:40:56.739
breakdown. There you go. Unbelievable. That's

00:40:56.739 --> 00:40:58.539
unbelievable. I just wanted to get through like,

00:40:58.659 --> 00:41:00.880
I think he's bad, but I don't think it matters

00:41:00.880 --> 00:41:02.679
because the Bills do this to me all the time.

00:41:02.699 --> 00:41:05.960
That's my anxiety. I know. I know. Whenever they

00:41:05.960 --> 00:41:09.420
face the team and you know, part of this is I

00:41:09.420 --> 00:41:11.239
don't know if it's true or not, but the Bills

00:41:11.239 --> 00:41:13.599
in the McDermott era have had a tendency to play

00:41:13.599 --> 00:41:16.719
down to their competition. Sometimes this feels

00:41:16.719 --> 00:41:18.539
like it should be different with Josh's leadership

00:41:18.539 --> 00:41:21.400
on the field, but they have absolutely not melded

00:41:21.400 --> 00:41:23.099
in in games. That's not the right way to say

00:41:23.099 --> 00:41:25.980
it, but They have struggled against opponents

00:41:25.980 --> 00:41:28.900
that a team that is this good with this many

00:41:28.900 --> 00:41:32.079
aspirations in this type of track record should

00:41:32.079 --> 00:41:34.639
not struggle against. And the Saints reek of

00:41:34.639 --> 00:41:36.480
one of those teams. Which you're absolutely right

00:41:36.480 --> 00:41:39.659
about Spencer Rattler. I mean, DVOA this season

00:41:39.659 --> 00:41:45.260
amongst all qualifying QBs, minus 4 .3%, a total

00:41:45.260 --> 00:41:50.219
EPA minus 7 .36 EPA per drop back, minus 0 .05.

00:41:50.340 --> 00:41:53.000
Every time Spencer Rattler is touching the ball,

00:41:53.360 --> 00:41:56.119
for this particular team, it is literally costing

00:41:56.119 --> 00:41:58.820
them points statistically. He has, to your point,

00:41:59.260 --> 00:42:02.639
had a high amount of turnover worthy throws,

00:42:02.880 --> 00:42:04.780
despite the fact that he's not throwing into

00:42:04.780 --> 00:42:07.199
a bunch of tight windows. He's got an elite pass

00:42:07.199 --> 00:42:09.900
catcher and an elite running back who catches

00:42:09.900 --> 00:42:12.880
passes at a high clip out of the backfield, right?

00:42:13.019 --> 00:42:15.579
I don't know. He kind of looks like the Will

00:42:15.579 --> 00:42:17.420
Loebus of this season, I think we've both said,

00:42:17.440 --> 00:42:20.119
so. I mean, there, there is that aspect to his

00:42:20.119 --> 00:42:22.360
game too, where some of it looks good, but on

00:42:22.360 --> 00:42:25.780
the, on the overall, he just, he looks like he

00:42:25.780 --> 00:42:29.440
is not a competitive NFL QB, but this is exactly

00:42:29.440 --> 00:42:31.260
the type of the situation where you've got a

00:42:31.260 --> 00:42:33.780
reeling Bill's defense. There should be a get

00:42:33.780 --> 00:42:36.460
right game for them, but there is something in

00:42:36.460 --> 00:42:38.500
the back of our head that says, because they

00:42:38.500 --> 00:42:42.119
have, because they have the kryptonite to this

00:42:42.119 --> 00:42:45.619
Bill's D, which is an elite wide receiver and

00:42:45.619 --> 00:42:48.070
an elite running back. who can catch passes out

00:42:48.070 --> 00:42:50.070
of the backfield. Two things that the Bills have

00:42:50.070 --> 00:42:52.670
always struggled to defend. Because of that,

00:42:52.769 --> 00:42:54.670
you're like, there's a puncher's chance here.

00:42:54.929 --> 00:42:56.530
There's a puncher's chance that at least the

00:42:56.530 --> 00:42:58.570
offense for the Saints might get going, right?

00:42:58.670 --> 00:43:01.489
Right. Yep. Yeah. All right. Let's look to the

00:43:01.489 --> 00:43:03.610
defensive side of the ball here, JJ, or rather

00:43:03.610 --> 00:43:06.630
our offensive side of the ball. Yes. Josh Allen

00:43:06.630 --> 00:43:08.690
versus the Saints defense that is going to be

00:43:08.690 --> 00:43:11.489
missing Chase Young for the fourth consecutive

00:43:11.489 --> 00:43:14.789
game here. arguably their best pass rusher, somebody

00:43:14.789 --> 00:43:16.369
who they brought to the squad last year on a

00:43:16.369 --> 00:43:18.610
one -year deal, inked him to a longer -term contract

00:43:18.610 --> 00:43:20.750
this year, and unfortunately has not been able

00:43:20.750 --> 00:43:23.010
to get on the field for them. JJ, what do you

00:43:23.010 --> 00:43:25.190
expect from Josh in this offensive unit against

00:43:25.190 --> 00:43:29.409
the Saints? So, some of the things that I, again,

00:43:29.590 --> 00:43:31.969
observed off all of the Saints games up to this

00:43:31.969 --> 00:43:35.110
point in the season, and I believe that they're,

00:43:35.150 --> 00:43:38.510
you know, Cam Jordan and Carl Granderson are

00:43:38.510 --> 00:43:41.469
both good. I think Granderson is sort of underrated

00:43:41.469 --> 00:43:44.710
in the league. And then, uh, Cam Jordan is certainly

00:43:44.710 --> 00:43:47.630
late in his, in his career, but still can make

00:43:47.630 --> 00:43:50.829
such an impact in the run game. Uh, the Saints

00:43:50.829 --> 00:43:53.829
do not have very good players, just kind of across

00:43:53.829 --> 00:43:56.030
the board. They are struggling. They're talent

00:43:56.030 --> 00:43:58.429
deficient in a lot of positions, but they've

00:43:58.429 --> 00:44:00.329
got some positives. I think Kool -Aid McKinstry

00:44:00.329 --> 00:44:03.409
out of Alabama, second year corner has looked...

00:44:03.500 --> 00:44:07.099
He gets flagged. He definitely misses some coverage

00:44:07.099 --> 00:44:09.659
assignments, but he also looks super competitive

00:44:09.659 --> 00:44:12.059
at the catch point. He has been sticking his

00:44:12.059 --> 00:44:13.900
nose in it in the run game. I think those are

00:44:13.900 --> 00:44:16.300
some good things. DiMario Davis is a player that

00:44:16.300 --> 00:44:19.159
I respect quite a lot. He has been very good

00:44:19.159 --> 00:44:22.000
this season. He's been the kind of sole bright

00:44:22.000 --> 00:44:24.900
point of that defense when it comes to, you know,

00:44:25.099 --> 00:44:27.599
helping them across the middle. But my notes,

00:44:27.619 --> 00:44:30.460
you know, on the Saints D is that Titans can

00:44:30.460 --> 00:44:33.449
make some noise. They have a serious weakness

00:44:33.449 --> 00:44:35.969
to running quarterbacks when breaking contain.

00:44:36.150 --> 00:44:39.210
They, they were giving up Kyler Murray, all kinds

00:44:39.210 --> 00:44:41.989
of space, right? Like they were not being disciplined

00:44:41.989 --> 00:44:43.869
when rushing him. They were not compression style

00:44:43.869 --> 00:44:46.309
rushing him. So he had plenty of places to leak

00:44:46.309 --> 00:44:48.869
out and make some first downs. And again, I think

00:44:48.869 --> 00:44:50.429
that, you know, Josh Allen might be protecting

00:44:50.429 --> 00:44:52.230
himself a little bit and trying for the throw

00:44:52.230 --> 00:44:56.369
first. But if he's pressed and if they need it

00:44:56.369 --> 00:44:58.309
and I'm sure he'll have some lanes, but yeah,

00:44:58.309 --> 00:45:01.329
I think it's a. They play a lot of cover three,

00:45:01.349 --> 00:45:03.750
so they have a single high safety and their CBs

00:45:03.750 --> 00:45:05.510
are dropping deep. And so there's definitely

00:45:05.510 --> 00:45:07.269
going to be some room in the middle for crossing

00:45:07.269 --> 00:45:10.309
routes, tight ends, up the seams. And they do

00:45:10.309 --> 00:45:12.510
utilize a lot of five -man pressures and some

00:45:12.510 --> 00:45:15.090
mixed front looks. So it could be a little bit

00:45:15.090 --> 00:45:18.409
difficult in the run game and in the in -pass

00:45:18.409 --> 00:45:21.909
pro, but nothing the Bills haven't really handily

00:45:21.909 --> 00:45:24.030
taken care of with other opponents. I think that's

00:45:24.030 --> 00:45:26.309
the one thing that's interesting and positive

00:45:26.309 --> 00:45:28.329
for the Bills on offense. is that the Saints

00:45:28.329 --> 00:45:30.670
play a style of defense that's pretty consistent

00:45:30.670 --> 00:45:33.409
to some of the other teams in the AFC East specifically

00:45:33.409 --> 00:45:35.389
and teams that they've excelled against in the

00:45:35.389 --> 00:45:38.369
past. Yeah, man. I mean, according to NFL next

00:45:38.369 --> 00:45:41.010
gen stats, the Saints defense rolled out zone

00:45:41.010 --> 00:45:45.429
and 91 % of its defensive snaps in week three.

00:45:45.510 --> 00:45:47.789
This is a team that relies heavily on their zone

00:45:47.789 --> 00:45:50.920
coverages. Mixes up their fronts within those

00:45:50.920 --> 00:45:53.159
packages and Josh we know he's been really good

00:45:53.159 --> 00:45:55.579
against them But it doesn't bode well for me

00:45:55.579 --> 00:45:58.739
for this being the game where the Bills find

00:45:58.739 --> 00:46:02.019
Explosive plays in structure because again, and

00:46:02.019 --> 00:46:04.739
it's either personnel its scheme. It's both I

00:46:04.739 --> 00:46:06.280
feel like we've said this a thousand times on

00:46:06.280 --> 00:46:08.960
this pod They are just not a team that has figured

00:46:08.960 --> 00:46:11.980
out how to solve this particular type of defense

00:46:11.980 --> 00:46:13.900
not to be effective because they're going to

00:46:13.900 --> 00:46:16.039
pick it, pick it apart. Josh is at that stage

00:46:16.039 --> 00:46:19.119
of his career where he is absolutely going to

00:46:19.119 --> 00:46:21.539
moderate this thing downfield in any way that

00:46:21.539 --> 00:46:23.980
he can. Well, when it comes to shot plays and

00:46:23.980 --> 00:46:26.780
things like that, the Saints defense is very

00:46:26.780 --> 00:46:28.760
adverse to trying to give those things up. And

00:46:28.760 --> 00:46:30.280
I think it may be a struggle for the Bills to

00:46:30.280 --> 00:46:32.639
get those explosives, but not a struggle for

00:46:32.639 --> 00:46:35.139
this Bills squad to score points. And again,

00:46:35.320 --> 00:46:36.820
I think it's going to be a heavy James Cook game

00:46:36.820 --> 00:46:39.480
without a doubt. Yeah, James Cook is gonna be

00:46:39.480 --> 00:46:41.380
exceptional I think against this team because

00:46:41.380 --> 00:46:43.380
the Bills are like the best his own running team

00:46:43.380 --> 00:46:45.880
in the league and this defense is susceptible

00:46:45.880 --> 00:46:49.000
to that style of running. Yeah, I just I wonder

00:46:49.000 --> 00:46:51.019
if this is one of those games where like the

00:46:51.019 --> 00:46:53.039
Dallas game a couple years ago where Josh throws

00:46:53.039 --> 00:46:56.599
the ball like 19. Where Josh is part of the group

00:46:56.599 --> 00:46:59.619
presentation and his role is the question slide

00:46:59.619 --> 00:47:03.019
at the end. Exactly, exactly. But I would expect

00:47:03.019 --> 00:47:05.059
a big day from James Cook with this without a

00:47:05.059 --> 00:47:08.579
doubt. I mean, yeah. It's just it's just the

00:47:08.579 --> 00:47:10.960
Buffalo Bills currently number one in overall

00:47:10.960 --> 00:47:13.699
rushing efficiency. The Saints defense number

00:47:13.699 --> 00:47:16.280
14. I mean, that is advantage. That is advantage.

00:47:16.320 --> 00:47:19.219
Buffalo Bills without a doubt. All right, man.

00:47:19.280 --> 00:47:21.760
Prediction sure to go wrong. Yeah, sure. I just

00:47:21.760 --> 00:47:24.199
have. Oh yeah, go for it. I have a game preview

00:47:24.199 --> 00:47:26.320
and then I got a prop. I think that the bills

00:47:26.320 --> 00:47:28.840
handle business. They're like 15 points favorites

00:47:28.840 --> 00:47:32.440
in this game. 14 and a half. So they opened to

00:47:32.440 --> 00:47:35.179
16 and a half point favorites on this. But you've

00:47:35.179 --> 00:47:37.360
seen a lot of. Yeah, you've seen a lot of public

00:47:37.360 --> 00:47:40.300
money come in on the Saints to cover. Right.

00:47:40.500 --> 00:47:43.059
The Bills just don't play a style of offense

00:47:43.059 --> 00:47:46.079
or defense that's conducive to 16 point wins.

00:47:46.340 --> 00:47:48.119
So I think that's what the betting public is

00:47:48.119 --> 00:47:50.900
saying. Yeah, so I'm going to say that the the

00:47:50.900 --> 00:47:53.320
Bills do win this one. I think they get over

00:47:53.320 --> 00:47:57.559
31 points again. I think it's Bills 35, Saints

00:47:57.559 --> 00:48:00.659
like 18. Like I think it's going to be a weird

00:48:00.659 --> 00:48:02.960
kind of it's going to be a game that we feel.

00:48:03.879 --> 00:48:05.900
about until like the second half when it starts

00:48:05.900 --> 00:48:07.900
to stretch itself out. And then we're like, okay,

00:48:08.199 --> 00:48:10.280
we've got this right. So I think it's going to

00:48:10.280 --> 00:48:11.760
be the kind of game that's way closer in the

00:48:11.760 --> 00:48:13.699
first half than we'd want it to be. But then

00:48:13.699 --> 00:48:17.099
some Spencer Rattler mistakes bring it way more

00:48:17.099 --> 00:48:19.500
in the Bills favor late. Yeah, without a doubt.

00:48:19.929 --> 00:48:22.170
I think I agree. I think this is going to be

00:48:22.170 --> 00:48:24.190
one of those Bills games where the first half

00:48:24.190 --> 00:48:26.389
were like, what the hell is happening? Spencer

00:48:26.389 --> 00:48:28.630
Rattler is going to extend some, some drives

00:48:28.630 --> 00:48:30.329
on third and long because you know, the Bills

00:48:30.329 --> 00:48:32.349
have proven they cannot stop those third and

00:48:32.349 --> 00:48:34.849
long situations. Um, and I think it's going to

00:48:34.849 --> 00:48:37.869
be closer, closer than, than Vegas thinks it's

00:48:37.869 --> 00:48:40.969
going to be. I'm going to go Bills. I mean, every

00:48:40.969 --> 00:48:42.510
time I say they're not going to score 30, they

00:48:42.510 --> 00:48:47.010
score 30. Bills 28 and I would say Saints 17.

00:48:47.199 --> 00:48:48.900
I think it's going to, I think the Saints will

00:48:48.900 --> 00:48:50.980
cover, but I think it's going to be a much closer

00:48:50.980 --> 00:48:53.860
game for comfort than a lot of us want here at

00:48:53.860 --> 00:48:55.780
week four in the season. And then you're going

00:48:55.780 --> 00:48:57.760
to see, listen, man, you're going to start to

00:48:57.760 --> 00:49:00.300
see the calls for, uh, the calls for Michael

00:49:00.300 --> 00:49:03.059
Hoy and Larry Ogunjobi to, to come back because

00:49:03.059 --> 00:49:05.440
that's going to solve the defense. That's the

00:49:05.440 --> 00:49:08.260
answer. Right. Um, all right, JJ prop that. What

00:49:08.260 --> 00:49:12.320
do you got? So my prop is actually, um, it is

00:49:12.320 --> 00:49:16.440
a sack prop D on Walker over one over 0 .5 sacks.

00:49:17.039 --> 00:49:19.639
Well, I'm gonna take the over. Okay. Yeah. Yeah,

00:49:19.699 --> 00:49:21.699
I'm gonna take the over because I I don't know

00:49:21.699 --> 00:49:24.559
I think he's do I think he's he's been Pitiful

00:49:24.559 --> 00:49:27.400
and run defense, but he's shown some solid reps

00:49:27.400 --> 00:49:29.519
here and there and pass pass, you know brush

00:49:29.519 --> 00:49:32.019
and we'll see what happens Yeah, and I know this

00:49:32.019 --> 00:49:35.340
is a relatively low bar But he is the he has

00:49:35.340 --> 00:49:38.119
been our number two best interior defensive lineman

00:49:38.119 --> 00:49:41.119
next to Ed Oliver. He's come through in high

00:49:41.119 --> 00:49:43.079
leverage moments, but also, I mean, when you

00:49:43.079 --> 00:49:45.159
look at his pressure metrics, they're, they're

00:49:45.159 --> 00:49:47.500
not bad, not bad for a forefront pick. Pretty

00:49:47.500 --> 00:49:51.480
okay. Yeah. How about you? Any props? I do. Yes,

00:49:51.639 --> 00:49:54.760
I do. And you know, this, this is with regard

00:49:54.760 --> 00:49:57.940
to explosive plays for the Bills, um, over under

00:49:57.940 --> 00:50:01.789
JJ, Kian Coleman. one and a half catches for

00:50:01.789 --> 00:50:04.590
20 or more yards. Over. I'm going to hit the

00:50:04.590 --> 00:50:07.989
over because Coleman, I think this is the type

00:50:07.989 --> 00:50:11.250
of, the coverage unit that the Saints have is

00:50:11.250 --> 00:50:13.510
the type of coverage unit in terms of size and

00:50:13.510 --> 00:50:16.289
skill set that you could see somebody like Keon

00:50:16.289 --> 00:50:18.250
Coleman hitting a couple of bigger plays against.

00:50:18.530 --> 00:50:20.730
You know, I think Justin Reed at Safety for the

00:50:20.730 --> 00:50:22.650
Saints, we know very well from his time with

00:50:22.650 --> 00:50:26.030
the Chiefs, is a excellent kind of downhill run

00:50:26.030 --> 00:50:29.280
plugger and does some good work. covering a deep

00:50:29.280 --> 00:50:33.360
zone, but can be had in contested catch situations,

00:50:33.719 --> 00:50:35.559
certainly. And so I think we see some things.

00:50:36.059 --> 00:50:39.079
So over under one and a half, 20 yard plus plays,

00:50:39.179 --> 00:50:41.780
I'm going to say over for Key and Coleman. Yeah.

00:50:41.900 --> 00:50:44.119
If not now, when? You know what I mean? Which

00:50:44.119 --> 00:50:46.920
is why I'm putting this prop out there. But this,

00:50:47.000 --> 00:50:50.639
everything, this should be a game where everything

00:50:50.639 --> 00:50:55.699
that ails the Bills. It's not going to be structurally

00:50:55.699 --> 00:50:57.579
better because we know the level of competition

00:50:57.579 --> 00:51:00.199
is what it is, but this should be a game where,

00:51:00.760 --> 00:51:03.079
especially on extended rest, the bills come out

00:51:03.079 --> 00:51:06.039
and they're specifically working on the things

00:51:06.039 --> 00:51:08.340
that they have struggled with this season. And

00:51:08.340 --> 00:51:11.000
I would expect there to be some in -structure

00:51:11.000 --> 00:51:13.980
shot plays going to Keon Coleman, maybe out of

00:51:13.980 --> 00:51:16.000
that 13 personnel set that we've been seeing.

00:51:16.159 --> 00:51:18.340
Maybe this is the week where we unlock a little

00:51:18.340 --> 00:51:20.219
bit of that play action shot down the field to

00:51:20.219 --> 00:51:23.030
Coleman out of that set. So, we'll see. We'll

00:51:23.030 --> 00:51:24.829
see how it goes. But I also am going to take

00:51:24.829 --> 00:51:28.269
the over more for hope than anything else we

00:51:28.269 --> 00:51:30.809
have statistically discussed. Hope over, yeah.

00:51:30.909 --> 00:51:33.070
Yeah, if not now, when? Yeah, it's the hopium

00:51:33.070 --> 00:51:35.030
over. The hopium over. That's where we're at.

00:51:35.650 --> 00:51:38.090
All right, JJ. We did final scores. We did props.

00:51:38.289 --> 00:51:41.409
Anything else here before we wrap up? No, you

00:51:41.409 --> 00:51:42.989
know, I think this is exactly the type of game,

00:51:43.010 --> 00:51:45.110
as I mentioned before, that you should be hand

00:51:45.110 --> 00:51:47.789
to lead the Bills. The talent is not even comparable

00:51:47.789 --> 00:51:50.449
between the two squads, but, you know, we'll...

00:51:50.599 --> 00:51:52.500
They got to roll that thing out there and play

00:51:52.500 --> 00:51:55.519
it. Yep. Yeah, we'll see how it goes All right

00:51:55.519 --> 00:51:57.920
for all of you listening at home like share and

00:51:57.920 --> 00:51:59.760
subscribe wherever you get your podcast Google

00:51:59.760 --> 00:52:02.380
Apple Spotify and as always go bills go bills