Good morning and welcome to the Buffalo Bread
podcast. Thank you for joining us and a coffee
pod. We're recording the day before the Bills
game against the New Orleans Saints in Buffalo
on a Saturday. Dan, how are we doing? Doing good.
Excited for the Bills welcoming the Saints to
Highmark tomorrow. Also excited to talk about
where we think this team stands. Three weeks
into the season, this is usually the time of
the year, JJ, where I start to get my bearings
as a stats guy. Like one or two games, not a
real great sample size, but once you start to
get into weeks three and four, you're far enough
past the pre -season to where you kind of see
what teams want to put on film as you're about
to make that turn into the second quarter of
the season where now other teams start to respond.
So I think we're getting in some good data about
the Bills, about where they're at realistically
and where they need to go to be successful and
claim. that ultimate goal we want them to at
the end of the season. So I'm stoked to talk
about it, dude. Yeah, man. And I think that,
you know, to start that conversation, we have
to look back a little bit into the Buffalo Bills
game against the Miami Dolphins, our third game
of the year. The Bills are now 3 -0 and things
are looking good, especially considering this
weekend, one of the Kansas City Chiefs were Baltimore
Ravens, who many would consider the top contenders
for that number one seed in the AFC. One of them
is going to be one and three while the other
one moves to two and two. Yes. That game is fascinating
to me for a bunch of different reasons. Lots
of implications to that. But I don't know, man.
Is it weird to root for both teams to lose? Like
a tie because it muddies up their opportunities.
Yeah. Is that an outcome that we can get from
that game, right? I mean, do you want to talk
about that real quick? Yeah, we could talk about
that. Just our thoughts on it real quick. Who
do you think is more likely to bounce back after
that game? Like there's the whole who needs it
more thing. But the reality is both of those
teams are so talented with the Chiefs getting
some pieces back here later on in the season.
Like, I don't know that this is a nail on the
coffin for either squad, but who do you think,
if they lose, has the better chance to bounce
back? Chief's track record. Coaching, yeah. Track
record coaching, key injuries and suspensions
and things like that. I think that they have
the better chance because the Ravens in a lot
of ways are, they are at peak form this part
of the season, even though they've not performed
very well in a few games. They also haven't been
completely wiped out by their, their injury bug
that they sometimes get yet. So I think we're
seeing them where they're at. I think we're seeing
a lesser version of the Chiefs of where they
will be. Yes. For the record, I think both teams
can recover from a loss this weekend, but I actually
think it's the Ravens that might have the easier
road, only because of the division they play
in. I think if the Ravens take the L this week,
and to your point, remain kind of healthy. I
know Kyle Van Noy is banged up. They haven't
had a healthy Isaiah likely though. Honestly,
that offense doesn't really... like center around
him, you know, he's a nice piece to have. But
I think that division with Burrow being down,
with the Browns having a really great defense,
but not really knowing who they are on offense.
And then the Steelers, I mean, the Steelers defense,
and I'm going to regret this because the Bills
will play the Steelers this season. The Steelers
defense looks old and kind of washed and that
secondary is very banged up. And Aaron Rodgers
is playing the exact same game, game after game
for Pittsburgh, where it's The same amount of
tight window throws, same amount of turnover
worthy throws. It's just a matter of can your
defense take advantage of the way Rodgers plays
now, which is kind of sloppy. And that to me
is too much of an inconsistent factor to be able
to count on as well. So I think for the Ravens,
if they drop to one and three, I think they do
have the ability at least to squeak out something
in their division because of the relative weakness
compared to their squad. Yeah, no, I think that
that's true. That's true. And I do think we're
seeing a resurgent AFC West against the Chiefs,
which I think Bill's fans have been waiting.
We've been waiting. We are the main characters
in Lord of the Rings waiting for Gandalf to come
over the crest of the hill at dawn with the riders
of Rohan. And those are the Broncos and the Chargers.
Like, thank you for arriving finally to the fight.
We've been holding this keep all night long.
Exactly. Exactly. Oh, God. It's I'm so glad we
went in this little diversion just for that reference
alone. Love those movies. Holy crap. All right,
man. Well, as we talk about indivision rivals
here, that's a perfect segue to talk about Miami.
But JJ, I want to do it a little bit different
because to your point, we're recording about
a day before week four begins. And for Bill's
Mafia, I mean, pretty much every way you could
break down that closer than expected Miami game
has been broken down. So I kind of want to take
a step back being that that was the the third
week of the season. We now have a pretty decent
sample size of where the Bills are at from multiple
angles on the squad. And rather than go through
an offense defense special teams recap, I want
to do something a little bit different. I want
to talk about some individual contributors and
individual units that the Bills had hoped either
would take a step or maintain a high level of
play this season. And after three weeks and after
that Miami game, it's the perfect place to check
in with some of those folks. So I'd like to do
something I call better, same or worse. I'm going
to give you a player or I'm going to give you
a unit or a situation on the squad, JJ. And you're
going to tell me if they're performing better,
the same or worse compared to pre -season hopes
and their performance last season. Sound good?
Perfect. Let's run this thing. All right. I'm
going to start with an easy one. Josh Allen,
better, same or worse. better. He has looked
sharper. He's looked like he's had the answers
quicker in the down. I haven't seen him absolutely
blow a protection call at the line and then get
lit up on a corner blitz that he wasn't anticipating.
I think that the line has actually been, we'll
get to the line, but Josh Allen has been better.
I think he looks every bit the MVP of the league
and he has complete control of this offense.
I have not been more happy with Josh Allen as
my quarterback than I am at this exact moment
in time because he's looked sharp. We're waiting
on the downfield passing. That needs to come.
And I want to talk about that a little bit. I
want to talk about a little bit of that later
on because I've got one here on. the third down
offense and the third down defense where I think
we can squeeze some things in there. I agree
with you though, Josh is playing better than
he did last year in his MVP season. He's number
one in EPA per play amongst all QBs, number one
in EPA per individual drop back as well. And
JJ, he's doing it with a ton of second reads,
second reaction throws. And we'll get to this
pass catcher room in a minute because we're going
to talk about a couple of those guys. On average,
they are getting more separation than they did
last season at the same time. 3 .8 yards of average
separation against the nearest defender to last
season. At the same time, it was 3 .3 yards per
average separation. But Josh is still having
to hang onto the ball, go off script. and create
more in the passing game, particularly to get
those explosive plays that we have been kind
of yearning for this team to unlock. And defenses
have found a way, like Miami did in key situations,
third and six, third and seven, and more, if
you can get the bills in that situation, they
are just blanketing our wide receivers and there's
still a lack of separation overall that they
are failing to attain, which is forcing Josh
to improv. in the pocket. I mean, I think this
season, JJ, he ranks number seven in second reaction
throws this season and second read throws this
season. Like, there's just not a lot there on
his first read. And this isn't a case of Josh
being skittish in the pocket like we've seen
in the past. This is a professional, cool, calm,
collected Josh assessing the field and knowing
that he's got to go to alternate options because
his first read is not there. By comparison, And
I can't believe I'm saying this MVP candidate,
Daniel Jones, 71 % of his completions are coming
off of his first read. Stiken is doing a great
job for him of scheming guys open, giving him
quick, uh, decisive reads in the structure of
the offense. And Josh doesn't have that yet.
And I think it's a twofold issue, which is going
to sound crazy for a team that scores 30 points
a game. The issue to me feels like the pass catcher
room still hasn't evolved to where we need it
to. I'm getting separation. But then also, I
mean, Brady is a great OC, but this has always
been the thing we've wondered if he can develop.
Can he develop a downfield passing game? Can
he develop a passing game that attacks multiple
levels of the defense? And we haven't seen him
do that yet to that extent. Yeah, and I think
that's a great point. Also, when you chucklingly
said, you know, with MVP candidate Daniel Jones,
The wide receivers on the Colts are Josh Downs,
Ashton Doolin, Anthony Gould, AD Mitchell, who
I think we both like, Alec Pierce, who's been
okay, solid, and Michael Pittman, who's a very
good receiver. I think that, yeah, so like, but
that's the, that's the thing is like, none of
those people are absolute soul crushing talents
in this league, right? Like they are solid. There's
not a Jamar Chase, a Tyreek Hill, a Jalen Waddle
among them. They are, you know, solid, if not
spectacular, which I think is a good way that
a lot of people might describe the Bills wide
receiver room. So it's not like he's beating
all the coverage looks with this initial separation
because he has these magnificent talents who
cannot be covered. And so I think that your point
carries a lot, which is if... Josh Allen has
to look for a second window every time or has
to look for something to break down in coverage
every time. That's that's a problem. Is that
a problem of design? Yeah, absolutely. Absolutely.
Despite all that, I think we both agree he's
playing at a higher level than he did last season,
which is absolutely scary if you're the rest
of the league. All right, JJ, let's move on.
Next up, James Cook. Better, same or worse from
last year? Absolutely better. I think he just
looks smooth, decisive. He's in and out of his
cuts. He brought back the physicality. I think
everyone was shocked to see him bring last year
when it comes to, you know, I think he's one
of the top, he's top five or top 10 in yards
after contact, you know, per play, which is not
what you'd expect of somebody sub 200 pounds
as a running back because he's kind of lanky
in his frame. He's not, say Quad Barkley. Yeah.
He's number four in the league. an average yards
per carry after contact. Yep. And which is just,
it's amazing for, you know, somebody of his size
stature and his running style. Even I think that
it's something that he's developed that no team
drafting or looking at James Cook coming out
of Georgia would have expected him to be able
to do. Yeah, without a doubt his rushing yards
total over expectation through three weeks plus
82, according to NFL next gen stats, which is
like that takes into account for those of you
at home who aren't familiar with the stat. It
takes into account blocking, right? If all things
were equal on blocking, how far above expectation
is he gaining? And that gives you a good indication
that. Yes, there is a great marriage between
this offensive line and the running back, but
the running back is carrying his load and then
some. We talked about him being number four in
the league in yards per carry after contact.
He is also number four in the league in rush
yards over expectation. And you know, JJ, they
really need James Cook in this rushing offense.
They've given him a larger percentage of the
snap share. He's gone from about 49, 48 % last
season at the same time to now 62%. Um, of the
snapshot on this running back room, they're using
him more effectively in the red zone and on third
down as well. I mean, he's on pace, I think for
like 350 touches. That's gonna, that's going
to regress to the mean at some point, but they've
really needed James Cook in the thrashing offense
because Ray Davis hasn't looked great on his
carries. That decisiveness that you mentioned
with Cook. He's in there with Davis at this point.
And I think a thing that we're not talking about
as much is that teams are really keying in on
the Josh Allen scramble drill now. Josh is rushing
yards over expectation minus two for the season.
Teams are really aware of where he is. especially
in pure passing downs, and they're doing a great
job keeping contain on him. So the traditional
run game has needed absolutely to be a piece
of this offensive success early on in the season,
and Cook is a big reason why it is. So I agree
with you, dude. I think better. Absolutely better.
All right, I won't talk about the past catchers.
Let's start with Dalton Kincaid. Lots of lots
of I wouldn't say expectations, but a lot of
like, dude, this has got to be the year where
you do something. Where are you at with Kincaid
so far? Same or worse? I mean, through three
games, he's had some of his highest target percentage,
highest catch percentage, highest yards after
catch. He's doing excellent because he's being
focused on as a key piece of the offense and
he's delivering, even if it's only two or three
catches per game. I think that matters. He's
been in the end zone. I think that it's what
we always kind of wanted to see. We never needed
Dalton Kincaid to be prime Travis Kelsey with
12 targets for eight catches and 100 plus yards
to touchdowns. We wanted that, but we don't need
it with this offense. Everyone eats James Cook.
There's enough talents other than Dalton Kincaid.
We just need him to be better. And I think he
is better as a weapon offensively. I think that
he's miles better as a blocker. And that has
been the thing I've been most impressed by. is
that the Bills are not being forced to take him
out and plug Dawson Knox in on certain key rushdowns.
They are letting Dalton Kincaid do those pins
on the edge, the pin pull concepts. They're letting
him clean out the trash in the slot, being a
heavy slot. And that I think has shown dividends
and we'll see how the league adjusts, right?
In these coming weeks, we'll see how defensive
coordinators adjust to that because I think that
the light box percentage when Dalton Kincaid
is on the field has been significantly higher.
because they don't expect him to be doing those
things. But then in the 12 and 13 personnel sets
with two and three tight ends respectively, the
Bills are still running. Of course, you know,
those are pretty heavy sets and he's doing more
than I think we would have expected from him
in terms of cleaning out bigger bodies, linebackers,
and even some, you know, helping out with some
linemen. Without a doubt. And those 13 personnel
sets that the Bills have been rolling out there,
I feel like they're still in the beta phase with
a lot of that, and I think the key to unlocking
the ability to take some shot plays downfield
out of that formation is going to be concave.
It feels like this is a ramp up for him, particularly
in those formations, JJ. He's now, I wouldn't
say a proven concept as a blocker, but good enough
to where he's no longer the liability he was,
which is going to hopefully let Brady unlock
some of the passing ability out of those heavier
sets. I mean, last season, the Bills were equally
efficient running and passing out of their jumbo
sets. They have largely replaced that Alec Anderson
sixth offensive lineman with these 13 personnel
sets, and it feels like they've, and it doesn't
just feel like they have, almost run exclusively
out of that set. But there is another wrinkle
I think they can develop, and a lot of it is
because it concaids continued growth arc. 81
% catch rate, which is far in a way beyond the
52 % he was at last year. His overall DVOA is
31 .1%, which amongst tight ends in the league
currently ranks sixth in the league, just behind
a few other, you know, a few other notable names.
He is, he's having a really great bounce back
season and most importantly, JJ, the Yak is there.
16 .2 yards per reception on Yak, which is what
he was always going to be. Find that soft spot
in the zone. and then transition to a runner
with the ball as quickly as you can. And he is
doing that to great effect so far through the
first three weeks. All right, man, another pass
catcher for you. Then I want to start talking
a little bit about defense. Keyon Coleman, a
guy who we have regularly pointed to as needing
to be someone that becomes that deep threat,
boundary threat for the Buffalo Bills. Better
same or worse after three weeks. Same, same as
Lee. late season Keon Coleman who sort of disappeared
at stretches. I think that he has done more in
terms of the quick, like he's had a few really
nice quick release slant games, contested catch
situations through the first three games. It's
just such a minimal sample size because it's
been like three or four targets per game. But
I think he's been there when they've needed him.
But some of the same problems that you and I
pointed to when he was, even before he showed
up on the team as a rookie prospect coming out
are still there. he's getting flagged for pushing
off offensive, you know, a pass interference.
He is occasionally just completely blanketed
in coverage to make no window available for Josh
Allen to throw the ball. And then on top of that,
he has not, he has not been a deep kind of deep
threat to this point. He's not been able to stack
his, his coverage and get behind them. Yes. I
think the temptation might've been to say Better
because he is better in a couple of key metrics
here. Like his catch rate has skyrocketed relative
to him. Uh, it was sitting at points last season
at this, at the same time in the year between
47 and 50%. His catch rate is now about 78%.
So he is, and I know he had that notable drop
against Miami. And then after that, uh, they
literally stopped throwing him the ball in week
three, but his catch rate has improved. Um, he
of course had, he was so huge in that comeback
against Baltimore and. I think too, you know,
they want to use him. He's averaging six targets
per game, which is number one out of that wide
receiver room, more than even Khalil Shakir at
this point. And again, that's went after the
Miami game in week three, when they stopped using
him, I think after like that drop in the second
quarter. So he's still leading the league team
and targets. He, he's a guy they so need to unlock,
but I agree with you at this point. It's the
same, despite those boosts and metrics, he has
not ultimately become that deep boundary threat
that they really need to take the roof off of
opposing defenses. And it shows as we talked
about with Josh constantly needing to look at
for second windows and the lack of explosives
coming out of the passing game in structure,
right? In structure. Coleman has got to be a
piece of that. But, you know, his separation
numbers still aren't great. He can't seem to
get off the line of scrimmage clean and press
man situations. Teams just have a playbook for
how they're going to guard him. And until there
is some individual, either to one of two things,
individual development with Coleman where he
becomes a little bit better in physical situations
off the line of scrimmage. Or again, if Brady
can figure out a way. to scheme him more open
off the line, put him in some stack situations,
put him in that power slot, put, God, put him
in emotion, just anything to get this guy a free
release off the line, as opposed to right now
he's lining up at that X boundary wide receiver
position, 81 % of the time, one -on -one with
an opposing DB, he's just never gonna be truly
successful in that scenario. You know who he
reminds me of, JJ? Who's that? Do you remember
Tyler Boyd, the big powerful slot for Cincinnati
back in the day? Yep. Love, love Tyler Boyd's
game later in his career. Yeah. He, and listen,
he had T Higgins and he had Jamar chase also
taking a lot of attention off. So it's not an
apples to apples comparison, but I mean, he was
a big slower. wide receiver that struggled to
get separation. Cincinnati shifting him into
the slot literally changed his career, changed
his career forever. And you just wonder if Keon
Coleman needs a similar schematic change. Well,
and to me, I have a question of whether or not
they're not doing that because they haven't yet
given up hope that he's going to be able to learn
to use his physicality to break through that
kind of coverage, press coverage on the outside.
I just feel like If once we start seeing Keon
Coleman in the heavy slot, we can pretty much
chalk it up that they're considering him not
an outside receiver anymore. Even if it's just
a spot duty in that position, I think it's kind
of a concession to, oh, he's not going to get
this skill set, so we got to do something else.
I know. And it clogs up the middle even more,
too, because Josh Palmer, who was also MIA in
that Miami game, he's so much more effective
on dig routes into the middle of the field. If
you add Coleman to that equation, I get it. It
just clogs up the middle. That's it, too. They
have too many options for that position because
then you have Kincaid, even Knox and Shakir all
look better in the slot than they ever would
outside. I know. I know. They need him to be
an outside receiver. Like that's why they haven't
schemed him there. Cause they're just like, we,
you got to do this job. Like nobody else on this
roster is able to do this for you. Tyrell Savers
is like a redemption project from the practice
squad to just try to get something going there.
I get it. I know. I know. It's, it's just, it
feels like such a mismatch of skill to positionality.
You know what I mean? But you're absolutely right.
They need him to be this and they're going to
force it even if it doesn't work. Right. Yep.
All right, man. Let's transition to the defense.
I want to talk about defensive line after three
weeks here. And there were some things I think
we saw that you and I would both agree were concerning
from the D line and both the pass rush and run
defense against Miami. So let's just start with
the pass rush aspect of this defensive line.
After all that investment in the off season,
zero sacks on Tua Tonga -Valoa in week three.
JJ, this pass rush at the defensive line, better
same or worse than last year? Somehow worse.
It really is. Right? Like, I didn't think that
you could put so much draft capital and signing
Bosa and moving on from Von Miller into a defensive
line and be worse. And like, that's not to say,
I think we both talk about it. Anybody who listens
to the pot knows we love what Bosa has brought
to the table. Just, homie needs some help. And
Greg Rousseau looks bad. Like, he just doesn't
look good. He has not made an impact in multiple
games now. He's been completely absent. and absolutely
not earning the contract they signed him to.
And then the rooks and the defensive interior,
like literally gold star to Joey Bosa for probably
70 % of his snaps and to Daquan Jones for about
the same amount of his snaps. And then everybody
else needs to be better because holy crap, they're
just missing everything. Like their pass rush
is terrible. Yeah, the pass rush in both pressure
rate and total sex recorded has taken a massive
dip from last season Massive dip from the same
time last season and they have not played I would
argue I mean listen even Baltimore his issues
along their offensive line, but they've played
Baltimore the Jets who you know without Elijah
Vera Tucker And then the Miami Dolphins largely
rolling out a backup offensive line in week three
and zero sacks on Tuatunga Valoa, who in the
two games prior had been sacked to combine eight
times. I mean, it's getting to the point where
it is inexcusable. It's inexcusable. That's what
I mean. It's like you look at that. We both guessed
that they'd get over three sacks in the game
against the Dolphins. They recorded zero sacks,
a few pressures, no QB hits. Like, are you kidding
me? What are you doing? How is that possible?
The only person I will point to that had a single
rep that I thought was solid, Was Dion Walker.
And so he's causing me to eat crow a little bit.
I'm still not going to write him. I'm not going
to draw him a card unless he shows up. Cause
my, my, my deadline was week four, unless he
absolutely crushes it against the saints. Sorry,
homie, no card for you. You didn't prove me wrong.
I think he's played. Listen, he's had a couple
of reps where he's like been blown out of his
cleats, right? There's no promise. I didn't promise
a card for somebody who's had some reps of good
play and mostly bad. Thank what's that? I think
on average, Walker's been one of the few shining
stars on this particular defensive line. And
listen, yes, we have to be mindful that Ed Oliver
has only played one game up to this point, right?
After literally single -handedly winning the
game for the Buffalo Bills on the defensive side
of the ball against Baltimore. So there is a
school of thought that I get where you're putting
rookies. in Sanders and Walker in a position
that they're not ready for yet. Daquan Jones
was washed last year, he looks washed this year.
But you are having to rely on those wily veterans
in Daquan Jones and Joey Bosa at a much higher
clip than you were ever hoping to. I mean, Bosa's
playing 72 % of all snaps right now. He's been
great, but that's not sustainable. No, it's just
a countdown to his next giant season -ending
injury. Exactly. And the younger guys have not
been put in a position where they can have been
able to contribute right away. So yes, when Oliver
comes back, it is going to make a big difference.
And everyone keeps saying, well, you know, let's
get to week six, let's get to week six because
we're going to get Larry Ogunjobi and Michael
Hoyt back. And I think we are in trouble. If
our, the success of our defense hinges on both
of those guys making major contributions. I like
Hoyt is a chess piece. The Rams were able to
do some really fun stuff with dime looks because
of his versatility, but Hogan -Joby was bad last
year and the Bills already play dime without,
without Michael Hoyt there, right? So listen,
it feels like the defensive line, similar to
the Ken Coleman situation, you just need the
guys that you put in those positions to hit their
ceilings. You just got to figure it out. Yeah.
Well, and I think that the biggest thing, and
this is like, I feel like we're broken records.
It's been like five seasons of the pod and we've
never, we've never been like, ha, finally consistent
defensive line play. What we've asked for, for
half of a decade, you know, it's just like, like
the last time, the last time the Bills had a
defensive line that week to week to week made
impacts in games was Rex Ryan. It was the Mario
Williams years. That was it. Like crazy. Yeah.
Mario Williams, Kyle Williams, you know, Marcel
Darius, that whole cold front at that time, you
know, Lorenzo Alexander, like that was the last
time that I was like, Oh, everything else can
be absolute trash, but we can count on the defensive
line showing up and making a positive impact
and maybe stealing a possession or doing something.
Right. Yep. Absolutely. And I don't know, man.
I mean, I think we've kind of bundled the rushing
the rush talk in with us, but it's the same.
It's it is. and somehow maybe worse. I mean,
when the Bills are playing light boxes at the
lowest clip they have in the McDermott era, only
about 37%, according to next -gen stats, on rushing
attempts from opposing teams, but they are allowing.
So light boxes, you need the defensive line to
do work. On light boxes, when they deploy them,
JJ, they're allowing seven yards of carry, which
is the fourth worst mark in the league. I mean,
the defensive line through three weeks has been
bad. And listen, the Saints are going to give
us a lot of false metrics, I think, because that
is not a good team. But if this, if this Buffalo
Bills defensive line struggles against Elvin
Kamara and struggles against Spencer Rattler,
you know, I think, I think it is time to hit
the panic button after four weeks of not great
competition in the defensive line underachieving.
All right. Let's talk about the linebacker room.
Terrell Bernard, Matt Milano. I had posited at
the beginning of the season, should this be the
season where Doreen Williams finally gets the
start over Matt Milano because of the injury
history, the sluggishness we saw in Milano came
back last year. Milano had a pretty decent preseason
and then the season started. So JJ, let's talk
about this linebacker room. Better, same or worse
from last year? I want to say worse, but it's
just the same, which is... We are missing Matt
Milano like usual. Terrell Bernard doesn't look
great without Milano next to him. For some reason,
that's like the absolute key to his performance
is to have Matt Milano with him. And then, you
know, I like Dorian Williams. He's done some
nice things. I think Shaq Thompson has shown
to be like a pretty solid veteran pickup. He's
had some impact in games and in a spot, in a
spot fill -in type of role. I think it's perfect
for him to do that. He's got some juice every
time you see him on the field. but he doesn't
play a lot of snaps. And I think that's proper.
Yeah, I mean, it's, it's same, same, but I'm
tempted to say worse because I'm tempted to say
worse because we're not seeing develop growth
and development from Bernard or Williams. Like
those guys haven't looked like they took, I would
say even Keon Coleman has looked like he's made
more of a step toward being a professional at
his position than either of those linebackers.
Yes, and Bernard also, like Rousseau, beneficiary
of an extension here in the off -season. You
know, Dorian Williams, he's getting Snapshare.
He's getting about 31 % of the Snapshare out
there, and you haven't seen... a massive step
from him. Like, you know what you're going to
get when he's out there. He's going to bite on
play action, but he's going to be a missile in
the run game, which as we have talked about light
boxes. Dorian Williams, if you look at a lot
of film, he's the reason why the Buffalo Bills
are only seven yards per carry in light boxes
and not 12, right? Like, he's really coming in
and he's covering up a lot of mistakes. I mean,
Williams is great as a run defender, but... coverage,
which is what the Bills asked their linebackers
to do. Still no real growth there. And you know,
Bernard, there is an argument to be made. He's
playing well, but has he hit his ceiling, right?
Is this the highest gear we're ever going to
see out of him? Which is why I'm tempted like
you to say same. Cause Milano looks kind of like
he did last season, which is he's not always
in the right position and run defense. They're
using him to shoot the gap more in blitz situations
with the Bills, which the Bills are also doing
at a higher level. Again, I do think as a rational
brained person, we need to hold final judgment
until the bills have all of their pieces back
on defense that they're looking to deploy in
this scheme and reevaluate come week 10 or week
11. But right now. Right now, it's not looking
like massive steps have been taken by this defensive
unit as compared to last year. All right, man,
one more. And this is probably another one where
it's like, well, we don't have all of our guys
in, so who knows? But CB2, better, same or worse
from last year? We got Trey White taking on the
Razul Douglas role. I mean, I'd say better. I'd
say they've looked a little better, but they're
giving up everything on third down still, right?
Like, that's the same part, I would say. The
better part for me has been there's been more
competitive past breakups and they're more competitive
at the catch point than I think Rasool Douglas
was providing last year. It's looked better in
that regard. But the thing that it's tough because
it's a mixed bag, we're getting better from Trey
White than we did from Rasool Douglas, which
is surprising for me to say because I did not
expect that. But we're getting worse from Benford.
or yeah, from Benford, then from Benford, right?
Like he's, he like not the kind of player that
I would think takes it out of gear when he gets
paid, but has just looked like he's gotten a
rocky start because he didn't play very many
snaps in the pre -season. He has been in position
all the time. Like his, you know, expected yards
after catch are super, they're like some of the
lowest in the league. Like he puts the guys on
the ground if they catch a ball on his coverage,
but. he has let too many balls come into his
coverage and be caught. And I think that's the
big problem. He's looked like he's better in
run fits. He has had some amazing run blitzes
and blown up some plays and that's awesome. I
think those are the ones you point to and you
say, okay, he's probably the best if not top
three run defending corner in the league. And
I think that's part of the reason he got paid
because that's something that Sean McDermott
values so highly. But I think that I'm expecting
more from his coverage. Confidence gonna happen
because I think he's an excellent player. But
yeah, I'm gonna say same, but I'm tempted to
say worse Yeah, I actually think I actually think
same I think there can be an argument for better
too. But listen, it's a relative scale Razul
Douglas last year was just smoked across the
middle and Teams were killing Buffalo in the
quick game Chua in week three had his longest
time to throw of the season. It was like 2 .86
seconds, which for him is an eternity. This is
a guy last year who got the ball out in 2 .2
seconds. So the Bills coverage unit did what
it needed to do and locked up those speedy wide
receivers and Devon Achan for the requisite over
two and a half seconds that you need for your
defensive line to then get pressure on the opposing
QB. It's impossible to ask This defensive back
seven to stay in coverage for over, oh, for almost
three seconds. They're just not going to do it.
They don't have the athletes to do it. I think
part of this to JJ, what we're seeing, and again,
the argument I'm making is that it's better.
The bills are also playing left handed on defense.
They're not dropping back into that soft zone
as much as they did last year, which is their
bread and butter and the comfort level for a
lot of those players, Benford and white included.
They've had to blitz more. And they've had to
play more man because they're selling out to
stop the run, right? Everything I think we've
seen is a trickle down from the poor play and
the poorest play of the defensive line. So in
that context, overall, I get Trey White's nearest
defender ratings are not great, but he was staying
with Jalen Waddle. He was staying with Tyreek
Hill, staying with Daman HN out of the backfield
for as long as you would expect a player of his
caliber to do and then some. Yes, he broke down
his nearest defender, but that was only after
the defensive line failed to do their job and
get to Tua in 2 .5 seconds, right? Or let Tua
break contain, which Tua let Tua roll out and
break it in. Yeah, I think you're absolutely
right. And I you know, that's an excellent point
that I I was thinking of as you were speaking
to is like we can't we can't even rate the CB
unit or the back the safeties either to that
regard when it comes to coverage. Because we
know the defense is predicated on the pass rush
and coverage working together. That's why the
one exceptional play against the Dolphins where
Deon Walker had a good pass rush rep was the
play where Terrell Bernard intercepted the ball.
That's what they talk to. That's how Sean McDermott
has been top ten in five or ten straight years
of takeaway percentage. It's because his defense
is built so that everything kind of works as
a unit together. Be your one 11th, right? And
I think that the corner, the back seven are now
are having to play, you know, two of the 11th
each because the front five aren't doing it.
My math is all over the place on that, but it
holds. It does. It does. My kids are working
on fractions for homework right now. I will double
check this and put any corrections in the show
notes. Thank your children for me. I will, absolutely.
All right, JJ, I think we've alluded to this,
but I want to bundle it together. I want to talk
about third down, because this was a point of
contention for the Bills and their need to fix
here. Third down the season, JJ, and in specifically
third and long situations, third and seven, right?
Better, same or worse from last year? It's hard.
It's better because Josh Allen knows where to
go with the ball. Worse because there's nowhere
to go with the ball. On those like... critical
doubts, right? Like nobody's doing him favors
of getting in position. And then he also is reluctant
to run to get some of those. There are some third
down conversions he could have made with his
legs, but I think through coaching and through
his own intuition, he's choosing not to take
those hits because he knows it's not the, this
isn't the sellout time of the year yet. And so
he's playing a little bit smarter with the football,
which I think is good, but I think it's hurting
the offense in some ways. Yeah, the Buffalo Bills
third down offense. And again, for a team that
is scoring 30 points a game regularly against
their opponents, you wouldn't think this was
a problem. But their third and long offense is
currently sitting at 18th in the league at EPA
per play at minus 0 .02. Teams are in the average
separation rate for a wide receiver room goes
down by almost a half yard. teams and we saw
this with Miami again with a backup secondary.
They were able to blanket our pass catchers in
third and long situations, forced Josh to hold
onto the ball. His time to throw in these third
long situations is like 3 .8 seconds. Like there's
just nothing available for him in his first or
even his second window. Is it a failure of talent?
Is it a failure of structure? I don't know. The
Bills are still a top seven unit in explosive
plays, but it's coming from Josh operating out
of the structure of the offense. Nothing that
the offense scheme, offensive scheme itself is
creating. And then you have James Cook. The explosives
are coming in the run game by and large as well.
So third down offense for the Buffalo Bills,
I think is a sneaky problem. And one that we
saw really persist. deep into last season as
the competition got better in the postseason.
Teams just, they do not fear this pass catcher
room at all in those situations. Yeah, they definitely,
I mean, most teams are willing to go man up with
anybody that the Bills are putting out there
and just let it ride, right? Add as much help
to the pass rush as they want. Yep. Absolutely.
Absolutely. All right, JJ. I think after three
weeks, listen, there's a lot of positives about
this team and then there's a lot of stuff that
I think we still have some concerns about heading
into week three. If the Bills blow out the Saints,
and let's segue into the Saints preview here.
If the Bills blow out the Saints, I don't know
that it gives me any more optimism for the issues
that we've identified here because the Saints,
I don't think are a great litmus test for that.
You know what I mean? But if the Bills struggle
against the Saints, I do think it is time to
hit the alarm button. So where do you want to
start? You want to start offense or defense here?
Saints offense versus the Bills defense because
I think defense is the greater concern that I
have right now. And I think that these Saints
are, so Chris Alave and Alvin Kamara and their
center, Eric McCoy, end of list when it comes
to talent on offense, right? Like they have some
good, I mean, we know Brandon Cooks, he's late,
late, late, late career Brandon Cooks at this
point. Rashid Shahid is so fast and he I think
could give the Bills problems just because that's
a skill set that Bills sometimes struggle with.
But I'm not afraid of most of their line. I'm
not afraid of Jawan Johnson at tight end. Spencer
Rattler, the notes I have from watching all of
the Saints games this season are, let's see,
Rattler, yikes, not a real QB yet. Justin Fields
is a better thrower. Rattler will run straight
backwards. which we see in young quarterbacks,
right? Like he doesn't have a plan when he scrambles
and will run straight backwards with no actual
way to get out of it. He has one of the highest
interception worthy play percentage or interception
worthy throw percentages in the league. He can
be told where to throw it. If you set your coverage
in a certain way, you can funnel passes to like
the flanks all day long and then just cover them
up and rally to the football. And he's getting
his receivers absolutely tattooed on the play
all the time. I'm surprised more other capacity
catchers are not crippled right now because that
dude throws, he throws a ball directly in front
of somebody with the defender closing on them
at full speed with the kind of touch that the
ball's going to reach the person at the same
time the defender does and they're going to absolutely
get blown up. If he looks, this is the problem
I have as a Bills fan though. I feel like he's
going to show up in Buffalo and people are like,
oh my gosh, Spencer Rattler, who knew he's the
hottest young quarterback in the league because
the Bills are going to play down and he's going
to just somehow, you know, tear him apart for
a few quarters. And then the Bills are going
to have to win it with a last second field goal.
And I'm going to like poop my pants. You went
through so many emotions on the Spencer Rattler
breakdown. There you go. Unbelievable. That's
unbelievable. I just wanted to get through like,
I think he's bad, but I don't think it matters
because the Bills do this to me all the time.
That's my anxiety. I know. I know. Whenever they
face the team and you know, part of this is I
don't know if it's true or not, but the Bills
in the McDermott era have had a tendency to play
down to their competition. Sometimes this feels
like it should be different with Josh's leadership
on the field, but they have absolutely not melded
in in games. That's not the right way to say
it, but They have struggled against opponents
that a team that is this good with this many
aspirations in this type of track record should
not struggle against. And the Saints reek of
one of those teams. Which you're absolutely right
about Spencer Rattler. I mean, DVOA this season
amongst all qualifying QBs, minus 4 .3%, a total
EPA minus 7 .36 EPA per drop back, minus 0 .05.
Every time Spencer Rattler is touching the ball,
for this particular team, it is literally costing
them points statistically. He has, to your point,
had a high amount of turnover worthy throws,
despite the fact that he's not throwing into
a bunch of tight windows. He's got an elite pass
catcher and an elite running back who catches
passes at a high clip out of the backfield, right?
I don't know. He kind of looks like the Will
Loebus of this season, I think we've both said,
so. I mean, there, there is that aspect to his
game too, where some of it looks good, but on
the, on the overall, he just, he looks like he
is not a competitive NFL QB, but this is exactly
the type of the situation where you've got a
reeling Bill's defense. There should be a get
right game for them, but there is something in
the back of our head that says, because they
have, because they have the kryptonite to this
Bill's D, which is an elite wide receiver and
an elite running back. who can catch passes out
of the backfield. Two things that the Bills have
always struggled to defend. Because of that,
you're like, there's a puncher's chance here.
There's a puncher's chance that at least the
offense for the Saints might get going, right?
Right. Yep. Yeah. All right. Let's look to the
defensive side of the ball here, JJ, or rather
our offensive side of the ball. Yes. Josh Allen
versus the Saints defense that is going to be
missing Chase Young for the fourth consecutive
game here. arguably their best pass rusher, somebody
who they brought to the squad last year on a
one -year deal, inked him to a longer -term contract
this year, and unfortunately has not been able
to get on the field for them. JJ, what do you
expect from Josh in this offensive unit against
the Saints? So, some of the things that I, again,
observed off all of the Saints games up to this
point in the season, and I believe that they're,
you know, Cam Jordan and Carl Granderson are
both good. I think Granderson is sort of underrated
in the league. And then, uh, Cam Jordan is certainly
late in his, in his career, but still can make
such an impact in the run game. Uh, the Saints
do not have very good players, just kind of across
the board. They are struggling. They're talent
deficient in a lot of positions, but they've
got some positives. I think Kool -Aid McKinstry
out of Alabama, second year corner has looked...
He gets flagged. He definitely misses some coverage
assignments, but he also looks super competitive
at the catch point. He has been sticking his
nose in it in the run game. I think those are
some good things. DiMario Davis is a player that
I respect quite a lot. He has been very good
this season. He's been the kind of sole bright
point of that defense when it comes to, you know,
helping them across the middle. But my notes,
you know, on the Saints D is that Titans can
make some noise. They have a serious weakness
to running quarterbacks when breaking contain.
They, they were giving up Kyler Murray, all kinds
of space, right? Like they were not being disciplined
when rushing him. They were not compression style
rushing him. So he had plenty of places to leak
out and make some first downs. And again, I think
that, you know, Josh Allen might be protecting
himself a little bit and trying for the throw
first. But if he's pressed and if they need it
and I'm sure he'll have some lanes, but yeah,
I think it's a. They play a lot of cover three,
so they have a single high safety and their CBs
are dropping deep. And so there's definitely
going to be some room in the middle for crossing
routes, tight ends, up the seams. And they do
utilize a lot of five -man pressures and some
mixed front looks. So it could be a little bit
difficult in the run game and in the in -pass
pro, but nothing the Bills haven't really handily
taken care of with other opponents. I think that's
the one thing that's interesting and positive
for the Bills on offense. is that the Saints
play a style of defense that's pretty consistent
to some of the other teams in the AFC East specifically
and teams that they've excelled against in the
past. Yeah, man. I mean, according to NFL next
gen stats, the Saints defense rolled out zone
and 91 % of its defensive snaps in week three.
This is a team that relies heavily on their zone
coverages. Mixes up their fronts within those
packages and Josh we know he's been really good
against them But it doesn't bode well for me
for this being the game where the Bills find
Explosive plays in structure because again, and
it's either personnel its scheme. It's both I
feel like we've said this a thousand times on
this pod They are just not a team that has figured
out how to solve this particular type of defense
not to be effective because they're going to
pick it, pick it apart. Josh is at that stage
of his career where he is absolutely going to
moderate this thing downfield in any way that
he can. Well, when it comes to shot plays and
things like that, the Saints defense is very
adverse to trying to give those things up. And
I think it may be a struggle for the Bills to
get those explosives, but not a struggle for
this Bills squad to score points. And again,
I think it's going to be a heavy James Cook game
without a doubt. Yeah, James Cook is gonna be
exceptional I think against this team because
the Bills are like the best his own running team
in the league and this defense is susceptible
to that style of running. Yeah, I just I wonder
if this is one of those games where like the
Dallas game a couple years ago where Josh throws
the ball like 19. Where Josh is part of the group
presentation and his role is the question slide
at the end. Exactly, exactly. But I would expect
a big day from James Cook with this without a
doubt. I mean, yeah. It's just it's just the
Buffalo Bills currently number one in overall
rushing efficiency. The Saints defense number
14. I mean, that is advantage. That is advantage.
Buffalo Bills without a doubt. All right, man.
Prediction sure to go wrong. Yeah, sure. I just
have. Oh yeah, go for it. I have a game preview
and then I got a prop. I think that the bills
handle business. They're like 15 points favorites
in this game. 14 and a half. So they opened to
16 and a half point favorites on this. But you've
seen a lot of. Yeah, you've seen a lot of public
money come in on the Saints to cover. Right.
The Bills just don't play a style of offense
or defense that's conducive to 16 point wins.
So I think that's what the betting public is
saying. Yeah, so I'm going to say that the the
Bills do win this one. I think they get over
31 points again. I think it's Bills 35, Saints
like 18. Like I think it's going to be a weird
kind of it's going to be a game that we feel.
about until like the second half when it starts
to stretch itself out. And then we're like, okay,
we've got this right. So I think it's going to
be the kind of game that's way closer in the
first half than we'd want it to be. But then
some Spencer Rattler mistakes bring it way more
in the Bills favor late. Yeah, without a doubt.
I think I agree. I think this is going to be
one of those Bills games where the first half
were like, what the hell is happening? Spencer
Rattler is going to extend some, some drives
on third and long because you know, the Bills
have proven they cannot stop those third and
long situations. Um, and I think it's going to
be closer, closer than, than Vegas thinks it's
going to be. I'm going to go Bills. I mean, every
time I say they're not going to score 30, they
score 30. Bills 28 and I would say Saints 17.
I think it's going to, I think the Saints will
cover, but I think it's going to be a much closer
game for comfort than a lot of us want here at
week four in the season. And then you're going
to see, listen, man, you're going to start to
see the calls for, uh, the calls for Michael
Hoy and Larry Ogunjobi to, to come back because
that's going to solve the defense. That's the
answer. Right. Um, all right, JJ prop that. What
do you got? So my prop is actually, um, it is
a sack prop D on Walker over one over 0 .5 sacks.
Well, I'm gonna take the over. Okay. Yeah. Yeah,
I'm gonna take the over because I I don't know
I think he's do I think he's he's been Pitiful
and run defense, but he's shown some solid reps
here and there and pass pass, you know brush
and we'll see what happens Yeah, and I know this
is a relatively low bar But he is the he has
been our number two best interior defensive lineman
next to Ed Oliver. He's come through in high
leverage moments, but also, I mean, when you
look at his pressure metrics, they're, they're
not bad, not bad for a forefront pick. Pretty
okay. Yeah. How about you? Any props? I do. Yes,
I do. And you know, this, this is with regard
to explosive plays for the Bills, um, over under
JJ, Kian Coleman. one and a half catches for
20 or more yards. Over. I'm going to hit the
over because Coleman, I think this is the type
of, the coverage unit that the Saints have is
the type of coverage unit in terms of size and
skill set that you could see somebody like Keon
Coleman hitting a couple of bigger plays against.
You know, I think Justin Reed at Safety for the
Saints, we know very well from his time with
the Chiefs, is a excellent kind of downhill run
plugger and does some good work. covering a deep
zone, but can be had in contested catch situations,
certainly. And so I think we see some things.
So over under one and a half, 20 yard plus plays,
I'm going to say over for Key and Coleman. Yeah.
If not now, when? You know what I mean? Which
is why I'm putting this prop out there. But this,
everything, this should be a game where everything
that ails the Bills. It's not going to be structurally
better because we know the level of competition
is what it is, but this should be a game where,
especially on extended rest, the bills come out
and they're specifically working on the things
that they have struggled with this season. And
I would expect there to be some in -structure
shot plays going to Keon Coleman, maybe out of
that 13 personnel set that we've been seeing.
Maybe this is the week where we unlock a little
bit of that play action shot down the field to
Coleman out of that set. So, we'll see. We'll
see how it goes. But I also am going to take
the over more for hope than anything else we
have statistically discussed. Hope over, yeah.
Yeah, if not now, when? Yeah, it's the hopium
over. The hopium over. That's where we're at.
All right, JJ. We did final scores. We did props.
Anything else here before we wrap up? No, you
know, I think this is exactly the type of game,
as I mentioned before, that you should be hand
to lead the Bills. The talent is not even comparable
between the two squads, but, you know, we'll...
They got to roll that thing out there and play
it. Yep. Yeah, we'll see how it goes All right
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