Welcome back to the Buffalo Bread podcast now
recording on a Tuesday, which is not always our
way Because the Bills are playing a Thursday
night football game which I think everyone has
come to loathe with the exception of The presence
of Ryan Fitzpatrick. That's the best part about
Thursday night football for me and also just
because I love watching the Bills play. But in
the past, it's been kind of a, it's kind of stinks,
right? Sometimes there's more injuries on Thursday
because the players haven't had a chance to rest.
Sometimes it's just poor football because they
haven't had time to game plan. We'll see how
it turns out. Bills are at home against Miami.
They are lucky in the way that... They closed
the game that we'll get into against the Jets
in that their starters were resting in the fourth
while Miami was playing kind of a slug fest with
the Patriots all the way up to the end. How are
you thinking? What are you feeling? Where do
you want to start, Dan? Oh, man. I mean, I do
think we got to start with the recap here real
quick of the Jets game. And, you know, shout
out to my boss, Sharon, listener of the pod.
He confronted me on my take which for those of
you listening probably remember I was very very
close to picking the Jets and the upset 37 35
over the bills and I walk into the office on
Monday and she asks me one question She's like,
how are you so bad at this? Don't you describe
yourself as a podcast host? Don't you claim to
know something about the bills and you know,
I reminded her of two things one The segment
is called Prediction Sure to Go Wrong. We deal
a lot from our anxiety and trauma as Bills fans.
And that's where a lot of the energy around this
pod comes from. And then the other thing I said,
which is true, is that week one is a liar. And
we talked about this a little bit and that a
lot of units, and for the Bills in particular,
did not get first team reps throughout the course
of the preseason. Josh didn't take a snap in
the preseason. A lot of the defensive units our
defensive guys couldn't get on the field during
preseason for injury or what have you. So week
one is always kind of an extension of the preseason.
And your team is never as bad as you think they
are, i .e. the Bills defense, which we'll talk
about in this just recap. And they're also never
as good as you think they are. Perfect case and
point Justin Fields being a competent passer
in week one against a Pittsburgh Steelers defense
that after this their second loss or after their
second game against Seattle Looks a little bit
old and a little bit injured, right? Puts greater
things into context having more football to watch
So I I gently reminded her of both of those things
and I said don't worry On the pod this week,
I'm going to go absolute chalk. I'm going to
pick the bills to win by like 15, and I'll have
some ridiculous positive bills vibes going into
Thursday. Well, and you're going to be probably
wrong again, because that's what it's about,
right? If we knew everything or anything, neither
of us would be still working jobs or having bosses
named Sharon. If we knew anything, we still wouldn't
be working jobs. We'd be sport betting our way
to millionaire status, no problems. And so yeah,
no, the week one is a liar. And I think that
when you said, you know, this these bills starters
didn't get a lot of snaps. Just look at the connection
between Josh Allen and Khalil Shakir, which is
almost nonexistent to this point after two games.
It is. It's not there because neither of them
got to play together. And this is where practice
also matters, right? Like we know that they have
a great connection. We know he's an incredible
outlet for Josh Allen on third downs, especially.
But it just hasn't really been been looking the
same. It's actually look like Josh Palmer has
a better Josh Allen connection right now, because
they did spend a lot of time in the preseason
together, even if they weren't playing in live
games. So, yeah, it's a bit of a liar. I think
everybody in Bill's Mafia who was smashing the
panic button, including both of those both of
us after watching the Ravens shred the defense
came down to earth a little bit. It's like, okay,
no, they had to settle in as starters. The safeties
as a pair did not play together with the rest
of the defense. And we got to see a lot of really
nice run fits, run blitzes. We got some good
zone. We got some good men. There were some combo
coverages. They ran in a lot of ways. I hope
this is more what the Bill's defense looks like.
Joey Bosa is a man possessed. He has not graded
above 90 in terms of his like efficacy since
five years ago. And he looks like he's having
career resurgence. I hope he stays healthy. I
hope he keeps it up. Cause if so, he will, he
will absolutely be the cornerstone of pass rush
on this team. Yeah, he looks like the veteran
presence that the squad needed to tilt certain
game situations in their favor when it mattered
most and this was for week two For a guy who's
got an injury history and concerns about his
ability to stay on the field The Buffalo Bills
have not shied away from playing him significant
snaps and both of their first two games I think
a snap percentage was somewhere near 70 % Against
the Jets and I mean he made every single snap
count to your point earlier PFF grade of 95 .8
QB pressures in a sack in this game, and of course,
the forced fumble. I mean, homeboy was cooking.
It was great to see that. And those seven QB
pressures and fumble, I think it was two forced
fumbles, because one of them didn't result in
a turnover. That didn't result in a turnover,
correct. So two forced fumbles, sack, seven pressures
on 15 pass rushing snaps. Just crazy. 47 % efficacy.
That's just wild, that pressure rate. Just absolutely
crazy. It's been, I mean, it's kind of an unsustainable.
It would be historically high if he were to hit
it for the whole season, but so far, so good.
Keep it up, Joey. Yeah. No, no, no. This is,
we are no longer dealing from a place of anxiety.
He can absolutely keep this up. No, I can't,
I can't take any more shit for my bad takes anymore.
He's totally going to do this. He's awesome.
Yeah. He's going to be an absolute revelation.
He's going to be everything the Bills hoped that
they were getting when they signed Von Miller
to a monster contract to only tear his ACL six
games in. Yeah. No, no. Yeah. Let's knock on
wood. Hopefully that doesn't happen with Joey.
But right now, listen, two weeks in, lots of
football to play. He kind of looks like the steal
of free agency for my money. Yeah, for sure.
I think so too. And I think that just to pull
into context some of the things about this game,
for anybody who wasn't watching super closely,
the Buffalo Bills dominated in all three phases
to the point where Josh Allen literally came
in on the last slide of the PowerPoint presentation
of the group project and put questions. in front
of a picture of a cat, right? Like that was all
he contributed. He was, he made a couple of key
third down throws to keep the chains moving.
Dawson Knox had a couple of key third down drops
to stop the chains from moving. James Cook literally
carried the whole tail when I was back the entire
game to 134 yards, two touchdowns, a couple of
receptions. So it was an excellent day for James
Cook owners. You're very welcome, Michael. Somebody
who asked me if they should play James cook and
I said you should absolutely play James cook
and then during the game He was like, thank you.
This was the best way So yeah, no, there's a
It was good to see as a bills fan It was nice
to kind of have that feeling that maybe they
still control the East You know, even after the
hot start that the Jets came out with on offense
last week Yeah, I don't know if I wouldn't say
that the Steelers defenses are frauds, but I
would say that It helps level set once you get
more of a sample size. Right. And I think similarly
for the Jets, Jen's offensive explosive explosion
last year and the Jets defensive capabilities.
I think they they looked a little more firm on
defense this game than they did against the Steelers.
Of course, the bill still hung 30 points in them.
But some of that was advantageous turnovers,
game script pieces, not just. running up and
down the field, I think everyone would would
say the bills seem to have to work for it in
this one. Yeah, no, it was another workman like
30 performance, you know, but in there, the bills,
you mentioned them running the East JJ. I mean,
the bills just seemed heading into week two.
And this is this is the sign of a really well
coached team, a team that believes in itself.
They seem to have a different level of confidence
about them, despite the fact that everyone in
the media, everyone on this podcast was picking
them as like the upset special of the weekend.
Um, they were so confident JJ going into this
game that they literally gave Taryn Johnson a
veteran rest day in week two and said, Hey man,
you can take this one off. We got it. Right.
Um, and he is Bill's mafia already declared that
he will be good to go for Thursday night on the
short week against the Miami dolphins, which
looks like it was the plan. Right. So we've talked
a little bit about the defense. Listen, we've
took there's on the offense, James Cook was a
big deal with regard to the Bills results in
this game, but also kind of a sneaky under the
radar thing to again. Not that the Bills weren't
taking the game seriously They obviously were
but they were also working some stuff out here
to JJ and offense their formation flexibility
was really impressive I was rewatching the film
on this game because I've been kind of curious
all season What are they gonna do with with these
three talented tight ends that they have? And
Dawson Knox Jackson Hawes and Dalton Kincaid
and they rolled out 13 personnel on eight total
offensive snaps this game and it looked great
each time they did it They never passed out of
this formation, but they used Dalton Kincaid
in a lot of motion to help identify what the
defense was trying to do. And then for the most
part, because I've been paying attention to how
Dalton Kincaid's blocking has or hasn't improved
this year on film. So much better. It's a lot
better. Now, most of the time they are running
away from Kincaid, right? They line him up on
the opposite side of the formation where the
play was going. Save for one 13 personnel formation,
the Elijah Moore touchdown, where they run to
Kincaid side and he blocks Brandon Stevens into
the sun. He made a great block on that play.
Well, yeah, no, you're absolutely right. And
even when he's on the backside of not the play
side of a run, he is sealing off the backside.
And that's really like People don't realize how
important that is. There's a lot of players who
work their way out of the league by being lazy
backside run blockers because they don't think
it's important. But when you have a back like
James Cook, you better believe there's a chance
that he's going to reverse the field and come
all the way across the formation back towards
you. There's always a chance of that. And if
you're not doing a good job of getting a good
seal on that block, that might be the whole run
cooked. Yeah, he was doing a good job. The thing
that I also found interesting was they had like
Jackson Hawes and Dawson Ox mostly pulling through
the hole as if they were fullbacks, like from
the formation outside, inside through, you know,
tackle and tackle guard holes. So it was that
was really cool. Yeah, it's they've lined up
Kincaid in preseason formations before at the
fullback position. It's interesting to see what
they're doing with him this year, because it's
so clear to me, JJ, when he lines up at the tight
end or a little bit outside at like the power
slot, it's so clear to me that when he's in motion,
he is still the primary pass catcher. that opposing
defenses are focusing on, right? They're, they're
still shading him. They're sending a lot of coverage
his way. I mean, I counted just out of that 13,
13 personnel where the bills didn't run it or
didn't run a pass play out of it. Once us Gardner
was shaded over, uh, Kincaid when he was in motion
on half of those eight snaps, like he still gets
a lot of respect from opposing defenses as a
pass catcher. And Brady's learning how to use
that as a bit of a decoy. Right. Well, I think,
too, that that also points to something else,
which is I don't know that anybody who's a casual
Bills fan is going to say Dalton Kincaid is the
most dangerous weapon in the passing game on
this team just because he doesn't have the stats
to prove it. But you should pay attention to
what NFL people who spend 70 hours a week are
doing when they look at this team. and they think
he is the most dangerous pass catcher. If they
think he is, then they're seeing the plays that
didn't happen that could have happened. Josh
Allen has been notoriously inaccurate when throwing
to Kincaid over the whole last season. Kincaid
was injured. There's a lot of things. Even still,
the defensive coordinators in this league, the
staff assistant, the quality control coaches
who are preparing the cutups for team meetings
and the defensive unit meetings. pointing him
out and there's a reason right so he is a guy
who is as advertised in a lot of ways except
for his production so far and the production
I think will come just based on two games of
seeing him play I agree presuming health right
Yep, presuming health, and I agree, and I have
a very bold prediction to reverse, bold prediction
sure to go wrong to reverse my ill -fated ways
from this past week. Well, that's a great segue.
Let's recap our prediction sure to go wrong for
the Bill's Jets. In week one, we were looking
at season long. We kind of did the score, but
then we're talking about some season stuff. But
week two, we went specifically into the game
with just a couple of prop bets and the score
prediction. Dan, you picked the Bills to win
a narrow victory, 37 -35 against the Jets. I
got one number right out of that score. I got
the three correct. Yes, exactly. And then I picked
the Bills to win 35 -27, again in a close one
because I think we both believed in this Fields
and Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson kind of triumvirate
of attack. And in fact, of course, the Bills
won 30 -10, and it wasn't even nearly that close.
It was three minutes. 28 seconds left when the
Jets scored their lone touchdown of the game.
And some fun stats before we get into the predictions
that are worthwhile. Tyrod Taylor had half of
the Jets total yardage as a team, and he was
in for the last five minutes with 77 yards rushing
and passing. We love you, Tyrod. Yeah, we miss
you, Tyrod, but not really. Josh Allen's awesome,
but you could always come back as a backup maybe.
But also Mitch came in when Josh Allen's nose
was gushing blood. and threw one ball for a completion
for 32 yards, while Justin Fields was three for
11 for 27 yards on the day. So just more, more,
just piling more logs on the fire of how terrible
that offensive performance was by the Jets. And
yeah, the Bills did run blitzes, zone man mix,
match coverage. They, the defense looked a lot
better, but also more simplified. They were not
asking the defense. I think Ed Oliver missing.
had some things to do with that. They were not
asking the defensive lineman to do anything really
spectacular other than play super gap sound and
let the linebackers clean up and the DBs clean
up, which they did really well. I think Trey
White had surprisingly aggressive tackling. Christian
Benford blew up a few plays. I think he might've,
you know, heard some of the chirping about why
do we pay this guy so much when he was passed
on so much. But yeah, no, they really showed
out this time and it was a wonderful thing. You
had turnovers over under half of an interception.
We both picked under. And in fact, we were both
right. There were no interceptions thrown or
caught in the game. Yeah. I like that. Yeah.
And then we were right about one thing. We were
right about two things because we both had Joey
Bosa sack. That was my prop. Over under half
a sack and he ended up getting one. So take it.
So take that, Dan's boss. We know something.
Sharon, thank you for listening. Yes, no, thank
you so much. I'm so glad to hear that you're
a fan. I really like being employed. Please also
keep him employed because I need him to continue
to pay for Instagram ad revenue. Yes, absolutely.
Or expenditures. One one more thing I want to
transition away from this game But one more thing
I want to get your take on and this is gonna
sound like a troll when I ask it But it's not
a troll What did you think of Deanna Walker getting
the start next to Dequan Jones at the beginning
of the game and Dequan Jones? being shifted over
to the the three tech um I I Don't know what
I think about I think he played fine in the position.
I don't think I think he was fine. I think TJ
Sanders was fine Zion Logue was fine. None of
them put in any kind of, anywhere close to the
performance that Oliver put together last week
against the Ravens because he basically kept
the Bills defense alive. But it was interesting
to me because that's, especially when we talk
about the two of those, I don't, the two of those
players seem to be out of position for that,
for how they started them, right? Agreed, yeah.
I don't think that, you know, Dequan Jones has
always been more of a space eater one tech. And
for him to take, here's what I do think. I think
that they lean on Ed Oliver's position to call
out gaps, stunts, different games that the defensive
line was doing. And I think it's rather than
trying to put that on a rookie for their second
game in the league. I think they probably just
swapped it up and had Dequan Jones take over
some of the line calls. Right. Just to keep it
organized because he's the better in the room.
He knows what he's doing. So that's probably
that's probably what they did which why wouldn't
you have Greg Rousseau or Joey Bosa? Probably
because they you know, you're across the whole
Coming off the edge, right coming off the edge.
You're across the whole line So it's a little
bit harder to hear each other. So maybe that's
maybe it's just that it's logistics Yeah, no,
I thought the defensive line despite the switch
-ups was perfectly anonymous for most of the
game Right some good pen good penetration up
the middle on pass rush reps But outside of that
perfectly anonymous and I will take that after
the Baltimore game. The DB's, however, man, stout
in the run game. Cole Bishop, shout out, Christian
Benford, total maniac. I don't, I don't know
that there is a cornerback that does more holistically
for their team's defensive scheme than Christian
Benford does. Right? Right. He's like to me,
the, the Heinz Ward of cornerbacks. Heinz Ward
was never the best receiver. in the league at
any given time, but he was a great receiver and
he was an even better all around football player.
And to me, that's what Benford is. He's a great
cornerback, but that dude is a football player
and he will do whatever you ask him to do. Absolutely.
Yeah, no. And again, I think it's the kind of
thing where the bills paid him a lot of money.
And games like that show you why, right? Even
games like the Ravens, like you had mentioned
on the previous pod, he was requiring an opposing
quarterback to be elite to make completions.
And they did make completions on him, which of
course he hated, but he tackled almost immediately.
His run after the catch has always been the lowest
since he entered the league. It's bottom five
players in the league year over year because
he does not let people get away if he does get
a completion on his coverage. Yeah, without a
doubt, man. Without a doubt. I think that's a
great spot to leave it on a high note. Again,
positivity being the theme of this particular
pod. And let's move on from week two to week
three, JJ. Quick turnaround, as you mentioned,
it is Finn's Week here on the pod. Always a special
tradition. We got Miami, man. Where do you want
to start with this one? And I'm going to give
you options that are outside of the normal offense,
defense, special teams. Do you want to start
with? Either of those sides of the ball or do
you generally want to start with the vibes coming
out of Miami? They are they're like the story
on this week in this quick turn. Let's let's
just gen Z this thing and go vibes. Let's go.
Yeah, let's go. Let's just talk about the vibes.
The vibes are bad for the Dolphins. Very bad.
My sophisticated analysis. The vibes are that
they did not invest enough in their interior
offensive line for a like a billionth consecutive
season and that they have an excellent left tackle
and barely anything else and Devon Aitchan is
keeping this offense afloat single -handedly
by just being slippery because he has the lowest
percentage of runs without contact in the backfield
in the league but he's trying, he's breaking
tackles, right? Like he's trying to make something
out of nothing almost every play. And he's doing
a decent enough job at it. When they even give
him a tiny sliver of space, he's rushing for
17, 18, 19 yards. So that's still a threat to
any opposing defense. But Tua looks bad. He looks
off target. It's, you know, Terry Kill, I think
had one catch in the third quarter. Like, it
was a while before they got him involved. I think
he ran a few balls. But yeah, so it it's It is
definitely not the high flying super tuned up
offense that we've seen in years past from the
Dolphins They still hung over 20 was over 25
points 27 points something like that Yeah on
the on the again, and I will say this because
this matters the the backup secondary for the
most part for the New England Patriots. Right.
Yeah, exactly. Yeah. So it's again, it is all
relative. The the productivity you have, the
defense matters, right? The EPA per play of that
defense matters. So this now what we see then
is the is the Dolphins coming into this game.
You know, the Bills are like pretty much the
top top or second offense in terms of power rankings.
Top three, at least, depending on where you're
looking for your stats. They are number three
in offensive DDOA currently after two games.
There we go. They are middle of the pack on defense,
abysmally low prior to this week and then this
week pulled them up from like the bottom of the
barrel to mid middle of the barrel. However,
the Dolphins overall EPA are like 26th in the
league, defense worst in the league, offense
like 20th in the league it's it's looking bad
and they've played their two opponents have been
two of the worst in terms of competitive EPA
so all of that saying um they are not looking
too hot and the bills are 11 and a half point
favorites at home so that number's gone up to
12 and a half since uh since this afternoon that's
yeah i have to update my my notes here yeah Yeah,
DraftKings usually doesn't miss on these things.
But I watched a lot of Tua tape from the first
two games this season. And it is the same story
over and over with this Miami offense. If they
cannot get the run game going to make the offense
feel a little bit more unpredictable. and they
can't get Tua to create within structure. If
they've got to rely on Tua to create outside
of the pocket or outside of structure, dude,
this offense is a tough watch if that's got to
happen. It's all got to begin and end for them
with the run game this Thursday if they want
a shot against the Buffalo Bills on the road,
and really to kind of salvage their season. I
mean, this is a team that's in a must -win, and
the answers that they need to fix what ails them
feels like... It is the answers that have eluded
them for the larger part of two and a half years
under Mike McDaniel, who is a coach that I like.
And I get now that he is losing the act, right?
The in Rex Ryan's words, the nerd boy act is
kind of wearing thin. And I totally get that.
But he's a smart dude who gets offense and gets
football. And it just seems like from a skill
standpoint. The cover on the offensive line is
bare. The wide receiver group, you cannot take
advantage of their tools because of that. The
traditional run game non -existent, they're averaging
less than three yards per carry in traditional
scripted runs. And the only thing they have really
going for them is that Devon HN is an absolute
miracle, catching the ball out of the backfield
and scrambling for extra yards is the only thing
to your point that's kept them in games this
season. And I don't know if you're the Miami
Dolphins having more questions than answers.
And the way that you do is going to be enough
to go up against a Buffalo Bills defense that
has banged up. And we'll get to the injury report
in a minute, but still well coached enough to
know exactly where to hurt you. Right. Absolutely.
One, I think, too, it's interesting that, you
know, they have the worst left guard in the in
the league in 70 today as of as of recent rankings.
They have one of the bottom third center, one
of the worst right guards. And these are all,
you know, these are investments that they've
made at different times. It's a young line, but
it's bad. And then thankfully for them, they
have a healthy Patrick Paul, who's a second year
in the league and looks like a very, very good
left tackle. And when they run to his side, he
tends to make some, give some space to Devon
Aitchin. But yeah, I mean, Hill and Waddle, they
look frustrated because the protection, Tua is
not the player who can shrug off a sack. and
make something happen like you mentioned with
second reaction plays. And this offense needs
that because the line is so abysmal. And I agree.
I like Mike McDaniel to an extent. I agree that
he's a smart offensive mind. I think that he
came up through the Shanahan tree, right? Shanahan,
yeah. Yeah. So anyone who's watched the Dolphins
since he started there can say that they do interesting
competitive things on offense. Some other coaches
get so frustrated. They claim it's cheating when
it's really just working within the rule books,
right? You know those kind of orbits motions
and running a little bit towards the line when
they snap the ball stuff like that But he does
push the limits. He does plan a good offensive
attack The problem is whether it's him or the
front office They're not getting the giving the
talent that they need to be successful And I
think this is the biggest problem. I think Mike
McDaniels is a pretty terrible like motivator
and leader of men. I think that's, that's becoming
obvious. Yeah. I don't think that players take
him seriously. I don't think they respect him.
I don't think that they care about breaking his
rules, right? Like I think that's the kind of
thing that's where he is falling is he is not,
he's a, he's a great offensive and football mind.
I think that's true, but I think he's not a good
leader of men. And that's absolutely an important
component of being a good head coach. You, you
don't make it in this, in the league just by
being smart at your job. Everybody's smart at
their job for the most part. Absolutely unless
they're legacy kids like the Ryans In which case
you don't need to be just right like three three
yards in a cloud of dust and Get in front of
a mic and say a dumb thing every now and then
So JJ all that all the vibe check being complete
with this team, right? There they this is a must
-win game for them Close to a must -win game
as there is in week three for a football team.
They got to change the momentum They have to
wash off the stink of their failure against the
Bills year after year after year and so many
different situations They're doing it at what
seems it like a very distant Disadvantages time
for them not just where they are culturally with
this team But also where they are health and
talent wise as well. So, you know How are they
going to choose to attack this Buffalo Bills
defense? And I think the answer is going to be
in the running back room. They are, they can
no longer clear those deep, quick windows and
under 2 .5 seconds because teams are just onto
that stuff, downfield to Hill and Waddle. And
the Bills have been one of the, the forebears
in shutting down and clouding all of Tua's passing
lanes and forcing him off his first read. But
Other teams have caught on too. They've played
the Colts and they've played a very depleted,
as we talked about, New England Patriots defense.
And both of those squads, JJ, have forced Tua
and Tua combined 2 .6 seconds average time to
throw this season, which is the second longest
time to throw of his career. We know that Tua
lives and breathes in that zone under 2 .5 seconds.
Last year, he got the ball out at a record pace
for him at 2 .2. This year, Teams are figuring
out how to make them hold down to the ball that
extra half second longer. And it showed up not
just in his turnover worthy throws where he ranks
fourth in the league after two weeks, JJ, but
two has also taken eight sacks this year behind
that offensive line. Right. So if you are the
Miami dolphins. It's not just a traditional run
game you need to get going. You need to take
advantage of where this bill's defense has gotten
got in the past, and that is running backs, catching
the ball out of the backfield. And you've got
one of the best in Devon HN. And I think we're
going to see a lot of that from this Dolphins
offense, JJ. They've run 21 personnel about a
third of the time, 28 .6 % of the time, according
to NextGen stats this season to a success rate.
that is tied for seventh in the league. If you
are the Dolphins, you've got to start early in
establishing not just the traditional run game,
but you've got to make the Bills leery of the
line of scrimmage with your running backs catching
balls out of the backfield to free up some of
those deeper mid -level passing, middle of the
field passing lanes that Tua likes to hit. Because
if you can't do that, JJ, I just don't know that
this Miami Dolphins offense has an answer for
the Buffalo Bills. Yeah, no, I would agree completely.
I think that it's a matter of the bills are going
to be pinning their ears back and trying to get
them in long and late downs so they can get after
and be physical with Tua because they know from
experience that he generally declines in his
accuracy and gameplay the more times you put
him on the ground, right? I'm also shocked that
he was sacked eight times and isn't out with
a concussion already. And that's not wishing
any ill on him. It's just I worry about that
dude because he is he's in like the highest level
of danger zone for somebody with repeat head
injuries. And so, yeah, I've agreed that if I
am trying to plan this game, I'm trying to make
the Bills aggressive rush hurt them because I
know I can't stop it. And the Bills have been
using a five man pressure on something like 50
% of, you know, 40 or 50 % of passing downs.
We saw it a lot the preseason, and they've rolled
it out here in the regular season. And the ideal,
the thing that's so amazing about that is with
a five -man pressure, it leaves you six for coverage,
and it also, and the most an offensive can have
is five, you know, five guys out in a pass formation,
and so you at least have man up with one helper
in the coverage, and then on the rush, you have
man up unless they leave somebody in to chip.
like a tight end or running back, which just
frees up another person in coverage to help with
combo coverage. So with that said, I think that
the Bills five man pressure look is going to
the the Dolphins are going to try to find ways
to scheme someone out of position so they can
get those underneath throws. Because like you
said, nothing long range is going to open up
unless they unlock the Bills from that defensive
aspect, because that's what the Bills are going
to protect. deep always first, right? So they're
going to start killing them with the screen and
short game in order to get anything going. And
if they try to get those long developing pass
plays without unlocking that coverage, two is
going to be just staring at tight window throws
that he doesn't feel confident to make. And then
he's going to be on his back. Yeah, for sure.
This is a game where if the secondary was a bit
healthier, I'd just be like, you know what, just
play dime the whole time and tell Cole Bishop,
divine HN is yours. Wherever he goes, you go.
Line it up and cover for and double Devon Aitchin
with, you know, Terrell Bernard and Cole Bishop.
Exactly. Right. Exactly. So, yeah, JJ, I mean,
not much else to say to I think we can say about
this with surprisingly limited Dolphins offense
against the Buffalo Bills defense. Let's flip
it over to the other side of the ball. Let's
talk Bills offense here because I got this going
to sound ridiculously arrogant. I think they're
going to be able to do whatever they want to
do against this Miami defense as long as pass
protection holds up against what is still an
effective line. This is a defensive line that
combined for three sacks against Drake May last
week, albeit the New England offensive line is
not what the Buffalo offensive line is, but Josh
Allen is also one of the hardest QBs in the league
to sack knock on wood So I gotta believe that
he's gonna pick the secondary apart to death
and James Cook is gonna have himself a day both
catching the ball the backfield and Running the
ball as well Yeah, it's it's not it does nothing
here intimidates me I think chop Robinson and
Bradley Chubb have shown Jalen Phillips to some
extent have all shown that they have an occasional
flash play here and there They all actually remind
me a little bit, and if this is insulting to
our dear friend Steve or other Dolphins fans
listening, I'm sorry. They all remind me a little
bit of AJ Appaneza. You know, like I think Chop
Robinson is - It's insulting to me. Yeah. Chop
Robinson has shown some solid flashes, but he
has been pretty quiet and insignificant in games
against the Bills against elite tackles, right?
Like against scrubs, he looks amazing, as do
most relatively talented defensive ends. But
when he plays a solid team with very good tackles
like the Bills have, or plays a team that schemes
specific ways to help out a little bit with his
speed rush, if you can cut down that speed rush,
he doesn't have much left. Similarly, Bradley
Chubb looks a little old. He looks like he's
coming off those injuries that have cleaned him
out from several seasons. Same with Jalen Phillips,
who I think was very promising first coming out.
It was Greg Rousseau's running mate at Miami,
actually retired from football while in college,
then came back after an injury, and then has
had injury issues in the league as well. And
I think that they all look, you know, kind of
a little banged up, a little bit tentative in
some regards, except for Chop Robinson. And then
Chop Robinson, if you have a plan for him, I'm
not very scared of this pass rush is all I'm
saying. Especially with the Bills' tackles. That
being said, they need to take it seriously, of
course, and they're not going to have many problems
freeing up. They don't have to hold up their
blocks for more than a few seconds because I
do think that even with limited man -beaters
on the outside for the Bills, I think Khalil
Shaqir, Josh Palmer, even Keon Coleman to some
extent are going to be able to make some hay
against Jack Jones, Rasul Douglas, and Jason
Marshall Jr. Who are players? The only one of
those names I know is Russell Douglas. Because
he played for the Bills. Yeah. Who we all remember,
right? Yeah, man. I mean the injuries to the
sorry depleted secondary are just voluminous
for the Dolphins. Storm Duck has not practiced
as of today. Specified ankle injury. If I to
Milafanu's their safety who you and I will I
liked him you I liked him was he was coming out
of Syracuse right kids could kid coming out of
Syracuse Yeah, I think we both liked him. Yeah,
we have injuries. Yeah did not practice I mean,
it's Jalen Waddle shoulder injury shocker, right?
Darren Waller is still limited in practice. Malik
Washington, Jalen Wright. I mean, the list goes
on. The Bills, they've got their own injuries,
too. I don't expect Ed Oliver to play again in
this particular this particular game. But Matt
Milano, the Bills coaching staff, also being
a little bit cagey about what's going on with
him. Also a do not practice today. But even even
with that being said. I mean, this is still advantage
bills for all the reasons I think that we talked
about. Yeah. Absolutely. Yeah. And I do think,
yeah, it's going to be Matt Milano and not Oliver.
I'm guessing. I think so. Yeah. It does look
like they'll be able to get Jordan Hancock back,
which is good when you have, when you're missing
or limited with Taron Johnson, who might, you
know, they might bring him back slow if he even
plays this week or save him for another week
and let him heal up. Actually, didn't you say
that he's declared he will play? He said he is
good to go. The coaching staff has not yet. Yes.
And that actually has happened in the past with
Bills players who have then thought not played
because the coaches were like, no, you won't,
like sit back down. Yeah, so that's interesting.
But I do think that, you know, Cam Lewis showed
up and really had a good game last week against
the Jets. But it would make me feel a little
better to have Jordan Hancock, who they would
cross training at safety as well. around for
that game. I don't have a lot I'm worried about
with the Dolphins defense. The line is probably
the best part because the defensive backfield
and secondary is really poor. I mean they count
on Terrell Dodson as like one of their top two
starting linebackers in nickel. His coverage
grade is one of the worst in the league and it
has been forever since the build. I mean, I liked
him as a special teamer and occasional fill in
third linebacker on run heavy plays. Cause he
was great for that and is great for that. Still,
I think he's one of the better kind of thumper
old school style linebackers in the division
at least. Um, but it's, he's just not it for
coverage. Give me James Cook, Dalton Gagade,
Dawson Knox, even Jackson Hawes against Terrell
Dodson. I like it. All day, all day. Yeah. I
mean, maybe this is the game where they pass
a little bit more out of that 13 personnel, right?
Maybe this is where Khalil Shakir gets going.
But like, if you are the Buffalo Bills and you
are who you think you are offensively, this is
a defense you should absolutely roll up. No excuses
whatsoever. Yeah. Yep. All right, man. Prediction
sure to go wrong? Yeah, let's hit it. All right.
Here we go. This is my redemption arc, God. But
here's the thing. I have picked, I have picked
conservatively in favor of the Bills, except
for a weak one where I didn't pick, I picked
against them. Do I want to break that trend and
really go like chalk and, and go like full confidence
in this segment? I don't know. We'll see. All
right. I'm going to give you the stat. I'm going
to give you the breakdown here, JJ. Uh, the Bills
12 and a half point favorites. The over -under
on this game is creeping up. It is now 49 and
a half. Not quite the 50 and a half that the
week one matchup was but still we're expecting
to shoot out and it is worth keeping in mind
That the last time the Dolphins were in Buffalo
It was a shootout type of game where the over
got to 60 and it took a last last second Tyler
Bass field goal to put the bills over the top
So whatever state Miami's in they are not afraid
to play in Buffalo and they've proven that over
the past couple years And this is a fair weather
Buffalo game, which is different than last the
there was a cold weather last time they played
Exactly, exactly. So all that's being said JJ
final score prediction. What do you got bills
38? dolphins 27 Yeah, you're definitely taking
the over and you got the bills winning But you
don't you don't have the bills covering you got
the Dolphins cover in this game. If my math is
mathin. All right. Yes, I'm gonna go bills Do
think the Bills put a 30 burger up. I think what
is their strength their streak? Is it 10 straight
regular season game something like that? Yeah,
sir of at least 30 points. Yeah crazy streak
Well in the fact that they they had that streak
last year For like it was like 14 straight games
or something and then they broke it for like
one game And then came back on started it again
This this offense is an absolute wagon, dude
All right. I'm gonna go Bills 35 Dolphins 17,
um, taking the, is that the under? No, that's
the over. I'm taking the over, right? That's
barely over. Um, but I do think I do, I just
think the dolphins are not going to have enough
answers. Like there is nothing to me that suggests
that what the dolphins can do for, from a game
planning standpoint. on a short week with all
of these injuries where you basically get one
practice. They're not all of a sudden going to
have new wrinkles and new answers for this bill
squad that's dominated them. So yeah, I think
short turnaround bills playing the way they're
playing at home benefits them. And I think the
bills win. Yeah. And cover and cover and we take
the over. Yeah. All right. JJ, what is do you
have a prop bet? I've got I've got one. I'm very
excited. I've got one as well. Why don't you
go first? All right, JJ over under one and a
half pass catchers Recording a hundred yards
receiving for the bills. Oh Yes, so you're banking
on two if you take the over you're saying that
two people are getting over a hundred yards receiving
Correct, and I'll give you bonus points if you
can tell me the last time that happened. Whoa
Okay Okay, so I'm gonna first thing I'm gonna
make my My my guess which is that it is under
I'm gonna say maybe it's one but not two and
then two is It was it like John Brown and stuff
on digs in 2020. Oh No, it was a little bit more
recent than that. Okay So I googled it at first
and I will say that Google's AI search engine
sucks because it gave me peerless price and Eric
molds in 2001 Wow No, it was way more recent
than that. Way more recent. So I actually went
to Pro Football Reference and, you know, downloaded
a couple of their Excel sheets and found them
myself. 2023, Stefan Diggs and Gabe Davis. Oh,
Stefan Diggs and Gabe Davis. OK. Yep. Yep. All
right. Yep. So it happened a couple of years
ago, but has not happened with this iteration
of the Joe Brady bills yet. So OK, I am taking
the over, dude. All right. Again, if it's not
against the secondary under these circumstances.
when, you know? Right. And I'm going to say that
one is Dalton Kincaid, because, you know, every
time I say Dalton Kincaid is going to have a
100 -yard receiving game, he totally does. Dalton
Kincaid and Keanu Coleman are my two picks for
the past catchers. That's exciting. I hope that's
true. That would say so much about the Bills'
last two drafts, if that happened. Sneakily,
that is why of these two. I would say... Yeah,
I would say if it does happen, I'm going to pick
Khalil Shaqir and Dalton Kincaid. Yeah, but I'm
saying it's not going to happen, but I think
Kincaid has a huge game here just because neither
of their linebackers can cover. Ifiatu Malafon
was injured and already kind of bad at covering
tight ends, even with all that size and athleticism.
And so I'm just, if it does happen, I think it's
Kincaid and Shaqir. Yeah, Javon Holland used
to give Kincaid and Knox fits, but not on the
squad anymore. So yeah. All right, man. What's
your prop? My prop is actually defensive based
Bill's defense. Two or more or two, well, one
point five sacks over under over. I mean, you've
got to you've got to smash the over and I am
on the record with my with my like meh, you know,
my ambivalence to this defensive line overall,
but short week. We know this offensive line for
Miami is what it is. Tua hanging onto the ball
long, doesn't have a lot of mobility in that
pocket. And the Bills have traditionally sacked
the crap out of Tua. So I want to say over. I
mean, I wouldn't be surprised if it's like a
four sack game. Oh, I'm going to put that in
the notes. I'm you know, I brought it up because
I wanted to say over and I will say over, I think
over and I'm going to say a three sack game.
There you go. All right. I like it. All right,
man. Well. We have done it. We have done a...
Oh, you got one more thing. I've got one more.
You've got one more. I've got one more prop.
This is a kind of projection. So, over -under,
four and a half losses before Mike McDaniels
is canned. I think if they lose this game, they
leave him in Buffalo. Really? I think it's under.
Do you really think that that's it? Like, they
start 0 -3 and he's out? I think if this team...
especially if they get like boat raced in Buffalo,
it's like, what do you, what do you think? What
do you think he's going to turn around? You know
what I mean? So, I mean, it's like Michigan losing
to Ohio State so many times, you know, if you're
the dolphins and at some point, You got to start
making the culture change that you need to move
on. OK, so you're taking the under, which would
be three losses. I'm taking the under if they
get if they get absolutely if they get the doors
blown off of them on Thursday night, I think
they leave McDaniel and Buffalo. If they're competitive,
he buys himself another week. OK, yeah, I'm saying
over. I think that, you know, I don't recall
just off the top of my head when their bye week
is, but I think it's the kind of thing that they
would change at the bye if he doesn't have at
least a 500 record by then. Yeah, yeah, well,
we'll see man. All right got anything else for
us. Nope All right, man. We did it We did the
Jets post game did our pregame for Finn's week
and now we just get to enjoy Enjoy some bills
football earlier than usual on Thursday for all
of you listening at home as always Thank you
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