WEBVTT 00:00:00.730 --> 00:00:02.850 Welcome back to the Buffalo Bread podcast now 00:00:02.850 --> 00:00:05.830 recording on a Tuesday, which is not always our 00:00:05.830 --> 00:00:08.250 way Because the Bills are playing a Thursday 00:00:08.250 --> 00:00:10.650 night football game which I think everyone has 00:00:10.650 --> 00:00:14.029 come to loathe with the exception of The presence 00:00:14.029 --> 00:00:16.429 of Ryan Fitzpatrick. That's the best part about 00:00:16.429 --> 00:00:19.489 Thursday night football for me and also just 00:00:19.489 --> 00:00:22.469 because I love watching the Bills play. But in 00:00:22.469 --> 00:00:24.890 the past, it's been kind of a, it's kind of stinks, 00:00:25.050 --> 00:00:27.210 right? Sometimes there's more injuries on Thursday 00:00:27.210 --> 00:00:28.929 because the players haven't had a chance to rest. 00:00:29.269 --> 00:00:30.750 Sometimes it's just poor football because they 00:00:30.750 --> 00:00:34.130 haven't had time to game plan. We'll see how 00:00:34.130 --> 00:00:36.429 it turns out. Bills are at home against Miami. 00:00:36.950 --> 00:00:40.240 They are lucky in the way that... They closed 00:00:40.240 --> 00:00:41.859 the game that we'll get into against the Jets 00:00:41.859 --> 00:00:43.820 in that their starters were resting in the fourth 00:00:43.820 --> 00:00:47.159 while Miami was playing kind of a slug fest with 00:00:47.159 --> 00:00:49.539 the Patriots all the way up to the end. How are 00:00:49.539 --> 00:00:51.159 you thinking? What are you feeling? Where do 00:00:51.159 --> 00:00:54.479 you want to start, Dan? Oh, man. I mean, I do 00:00:54.479 --> 00:00:57.179 think we got to start with the recap here real 00:00:57.179 --> 00:00:59.240 quick of the Jets game. And, you know, shout 00:00:59.240 --> 00:01:01.560 out to my boss, Sharon, listener of the pod. 00:01:02.320 --> 00:01:05.939 He confronted me on my take which for those of 00:01:05.939 --> 00:01:08.700 you listening probably remember I was very very 00:01:08.700 --> 00:01:11.640 close to picking the Jets and the upset 37 35 00:01:11.640 --> 00:01:14.879 over the bills and I walk into the office on 00:01:14.879 --> 00:01:17.560 Monday and she asks me one question She's like, 00:01:18.000 --> 00:01:21.959 how are you so bad at this? Don't you describe 00:01:21.959 --> 00:01:26.500 yourself as a podcast host? Don't you claim to 00:01:26.500 --> 00:01:29.700 know something about the bills and you know, 00:01:29.700 --> 00:01:32.840 I reminded her of two things one The segment 00:01:32.840 --> 00:01:36.019 is called Prediction Sure to Go Wrong. We deal 00:01:36.019 --> 00:01:39.640 a lot from our anxiety and trauma as Bills fans. 00:01:40.739 --> 00:01:42.579 And that's where a lot of the energy around this 00:01:42.579 --> 00:01:44.980 pod comes from. And then the other thing I said, 00:01:45.079 --> 00:01:48.959 which is true, is that week one is a liar. And 00:01:48.959 --> 00:01:51.340 we talked about this a little bit and that a 00:01:51.340 --> 00:01:54.019 lot of units, and for the Bills in particular, 00:01:54.519 --> 00:01:56.920 did not get first team reps throughout the course 00:01:56.920 --> 00:01:59.120 of the preseason. Josh didn't take a snap in 00:01:59.120 --> 00:02:02.560 the preseason. A lot of the defensive units our 00:02:02.560 --> 00:02:04.959 defensive guys couldn't get on the field during 00:02:04.959 --> 00:02:07.760 preseason for injury or what have you. So week 00:02:07.760 --> 00:02:10.439 one is always kind of an extension of the preseason. 00:02:11.080 --> 00:02:14.580 And your team is never as bad as you think they 00:02:14.580 --> 00:02:16.900 are, i .e. the Bills defense, which we'll talk 00:02:16.900 --> 00:02:19.259 about in this just recap. And they're also never 00:02:19.259 --> 00:02:22.259 as good as you think they are. Perfect case and 00:02:22.259 --> 00:02:24.560 point Justin Fields being a competent passer 00:02:24.560 --> 00:02:27.300 in week one against a Pittsburgh Steelers defense 00:02:27.300 --> 00:02:30.639 that after this their second loss or after their 00:02:30.639 --> 00:02:33.340 second game against Seattle Looks a little bit 00:02:33.340 --> 00:02:35.939 old and a little bit injured, right? Puts greater 00:02:35.939 --> 00:02:38.139 things into context having more football to watch 00:02:38.139 --> 00:02:40.819 So I I gently reminded her of both of those things 00:02:40.819 --> 00:02:43.669 and I said don't worry On the pod this week, 00:02:43.729 --> 00:02:46.490 I'm going to go absolute chalk. I'm going to 00:02:46.490 --> 00:02:48.509 pick the bills to win by like 15, and I'll have 00:02:48.509 --> 00:02:51.250 some ridiculous positive bills vibes going into 00:02:51.250 --> 00:02:53.710 Thursday. Well, and you're going to be probably 00:02:53.710 --> 00:02:56.150 wrong again, because that's what it's about, 00:02:56.289 --> 00:03:00.569 right? If we knew everything or anything, neither 00:03:00.569 --> 00:03:02.689 of us would be still working jobs or having bosses 00:03:02.689 --> 00:03:06.069 named Sharon. If we knew anything, we still wouldn't 00:03:06.069 --> 00:03:08.550 be working jobs. We'd be sport betting our way 00:03:08.550 --> 00:03:12.789 to millionaire status, no problems. And so yeah, 00:03:12.889 --> 00:03:14.909 no, the week one is a liar. And I think that 00:03:14.909 --> 00:03:17.030 when you said, you know, this these bills starters 00:03:17.030 --> 00:03:19.330 didn't get a lot of snaps. Just look at the connection 00:03:19.330 --> 00:03:22.129 between Josh Allen and Khalil Shakir, which is 00:03:22.129 --> 00:03:24.590 almost nonexistent to this point after two games. 00:03:25.150 --> 00:03:28.680 It is. It's not there because neither of them 00:03:28.680 --> 00:03:30.800 got to play together. And this is where practice 00:03:30.800 --> 00:03:33.020 also matters, right? Like we know that they have 00:03:33.020 --> 00:03:35.120 a great connection. We know he's an incredible 00:03:35.120 --> 00:03:37.259 outlet for Josh Allen on third downs, especially. 00:03:37.879 --> 00:03:40.460 But it just hasn't really been been looking the 00:03:40.460 --> 00:03:42.919 same. It's actually look like Josh Palmer has 00:03:42.919 --> 00:03:44.819 a better Josh Allen connection right now, because 00:03:44.819 --> 00:03:46.419 they did spend a lot of time in the preseason 00:03:46.419 --> 00:03:48.740 together, even if they weren't playing in live 00:03:48.740 --> 00:03:52.139 games. So, yeah, it's a bit of a liar. I think 00:03:52.139 --> 00:03:54.639 everybody in Bill's Mafia who was smashing the 00:03:54.639 --> 00:03:56.729 panic button, including both of those both of 00:03:56.729 --> 00:03:59.590 us after watching the Ravens shred the defense 00:03:59.590 --> 00:04:01.969 came down to earth a little bit. It's like, okay, 00:04:02.090 --> 00:04:05.129 no, they had to settle in as starters. The safeties 00:04:05.129 --> 00:04:07.530 as a pair did not play together with the rest 00:04:07.530 --> 00:04:09.870 of the defense. And we got to see a lot of really 00:04:09.870 --> 00:04:12.530 nice run fits, run blitzes. We got some good 00:04:12.530 --> 00:04:14.590 zone. We got some good men. There were some combo 00:04:14.590 --> 00:04:19.259 coverages. They ran in a lot of ways. I hope 00:04:19.259 --> 00:04:21.500 this is more what the Bill's defense looks like. 00:04:21.660 --> 00:04:25.199 Joey Bosa is a man possessed. He has not graded 00:04:25.199 --> 00:04:29.259 above 90 in terms of his like efficacy since 00:04:29.259 --> 00:04:31.420 five years ago. And he looks like he's having 00:04:31.420 --> 00:04:33.180 career resurgence. I hope he stays healthy. I 00:04:33.180 --> 00:04:35.560 hope he keeps it up. Cause if so, he will, he 00:04:35.560 --> 00:04:39.459 will absolutely be the cornerstone of pass rush 00:04:39.459 --> 00:04:42.220 on this team. Yeah, he looks like the veteran 00:04:42.220 --> 00:04:44.740 presence that the squad needed to tilt certain 00:04:44.740 --> 00:04:46.759 game situations in their favor when it mattered 00:04:46.759 --> 00:04:50.500 most and this was for week two For a guy who's 00:04:50.500 --> 00:04:52.540 got an injury history and concerns about his 00:04:52.540 --> 00:04:54.439 ability to stay on the field The Buffalo Bills 00:04:54.439 --> 00:04:56.879 have not shied away from playing him significant 00:04:56.879 --> 00:04:59.480 snaps and both of their first two games I think 00:04:59.480 --> 00:05:02.680 a snap percentage was somewhere near 70 % Against 00:05:02.680 --> 00:05:05.060 the Jets and I mean he made every single snap 00:05:05.060 --> 00:05:09.379 count to your point earlier PFF grade of 95 .8 00:05:09.959 --> 00:05:13.120 QB pressures in a sack in this game, and of course, 00:05:13.180 --> 00:05:15.439 the forced fumble. I mean, homeboy was cooking. 00:05:15.560 --> 00:05:18.399 It was great to see that. And those seven QB 00:05:18.399 --> 00:05:21.459 pressures and fumble, I think it was two forced 00:05:21.459 --> 00:05:23.680 fumbles, because one of them didn't result in 00:05:23.680 --> 00:05:25.040 a turnover. That didn't result in a turnover, 00:05:25.180 --> 00:05:28.399 correct. So two forced fumbles, sack, seven pressures 00:05:28.399 --> 00:05:34.899 on 15 pass rushing snaps. Just crazy. 47 % efficacy. 00:05:35.100 --> 00:05:37.620 That's just wild, that pressure rate. Just absolutely 00:05:37.620 --> 00:05:40.529 crazy. It's been, I mean, it's kind of an unsustainable. 00:05:40.610 --> 00:05:42.949 It would be historically high if he were to hit 00:05:42.949 --> 00:05:44.790 it for the whole season, but so far, so good. 00:05:44.810 --> 00:05:47.029 Keep it up, Joey. Yeah. No, no, no. This is, 00:05:47.050 --> 00:05:49.389 we are no longer dealing from a place of anxiety. 00:05:49.389 --> 00:05:52.490 He can absolutely keep this up. No, I can't, 00:05:52.490 --> 00:05:55.009 I can't take any more shit for my bad takes anymore. 00:05:55.490 --> 00:05:57.209 He's totally going to do this. He's awesome. 00:05:57.389 --> 00:05:58.990 Yeah. He's going to be an absolute revelation. 00:05:59.329 --> 00:06:00.689 He's going to be everything the Bills hoped that 00:06:00.689 --> 00:06:02.110 they were getting when they signed Von Miller 00:06:02.110 --> 00:06:04.370 to a monster contract to only tear his ACL six 00:06:04.370 --> 00:06:07.209 games in. Yeah. No, no. Yeah. Let's knock on 00:06:07.209 --> 00:06:08.810 wood. Hopefully that doesn't happen with Joey. 00:06:08.990 --> 00:06:11.149 But right now, listen, two weeks in, lots of 00:06:11.149 --> 00:06:13.009 football to play. He kind of looks like the steal 00:06:13.009 --> 00:06:15.250 of free agency for my money. Yeah, for sure. 00:06:15.649 --> 00:06:18.050 I think so too. And I think that just to pull 00:06:18.050 --> 00:06:20.129 into context some of the things about this game, 00:06:20.709 --> 00:06:22.529 for anybody who wasn't watching super closely, 00:06:23.290 --> 00:06:25.209 the Buffalo Bills dominated in all three phases 00:06:25.209 --> 00:06:27.389 to the point where Josh Allen literally came 00:06:27.389 --> 00:06:29.990 in on the last slide of the PowerPoint presentation 00:06:29.990 --> 00:06:33.389 of the group project and put questions. in front 00:06:33.389 --> 00:06:35.889 of a picture of a cat, right? Like that was all 00:06:35.889 --> 00:06:38.949 he contributed. He was, he made a couple of key 00:06:38.949 --> 00:06:40.930 third down throws to keep the chains moving. 00:06:42.089 --> 00:06:44.009 Dawson Knox had a couple of key third down drops 00:06:44.009 --> 00:06:47.949 to stop the chains from moving. James Cook literally 00:06:47.949 --> 00:06:49.930 carried the whole tail when I was back the entire 00:06:49.930 --> 00:06:54.589 game to 134 yards, two touchdowns, a couple of 00:06:54.589 --> 00:06:57.370 receptions. So it was an excellent day for James 00:06:57.370 --> 00:07:01.620 Cook owners. You're very welcome, Michael. Somebody 00:07:01.620 --> 00:07:03.699 who asked me if they should play James cook and 00:07:03.699 --> 00:07:05.339 I said you should absolutely play James cook 00:07:05.339 --> 00:07:06.959 and then during the game He was like, thank you. 00:07:07.100 --> 00:07:10.980 This was the best way So yeah, no, there's a 00:07:10.980 --> 00:07:13.800 It was good to see as a bills fan It was nice 00:07:13.800 --> 00:07:16.139 to kind of have that feeling that maybe they 00:07:16.139 --> 00:07:18.899 still control the East You know, even after the 00:07:18.899 --> 00:07:21.060 hot start that the Jets came out with on offense 00:07:21.060 --> 00:07:23.800 last week Yeah, I don't know if I wouldn't say 00:07:23.800 --> 00:07:26.339 that the Steelers defenses are frauds, but I 00:07:26.339 --> 00:07:28.959 would say that It helps level set once you get 00:07:28.959 --> 00:07:32.060 more of a sample size. Right. And I think similarly 00:07:32.060 --> 00:07:35.360 for the Jets, Jen's offensive explosive explosion 00:07:35.360 --> 00:07:39.240 last year and the Jets defensive capabilities. 00:07:39.240 --> 00:07:41.720 I think they they looked a little more firm on 00:07:41.720 --> 00:07:44.180 defense this game than they did against the Steelers. 00:07:44.180 --> 00:07:47.259 Of course, the bill still hung 30 points in them. 00:07:47.339 --> 00:07:49.680 But some of that was advantageous turnovers, 00:07:49.899 --> 00:07:53.199 game script pieces, not just. running up and 00:07:53.199 --> 00:07:54.600 down the field, I think everyone would would 00:07:54.600 --> 00:07:56.639 say the bills seem to have to work for it in 00:07:56.639 --> 00:07:59.220 this one. Yeah, no, it was another workman like 00:07:59.220 --> 00:08:01.699 30 performance, you know, but in there, the bills, 00:08:01.759 --> 00:08:04.240 you mentioned them running the East JJ. I mean, 00:08:04.319 --> 00:08:07.120 the bills just seemed heading into week two. 00:08:07.160 --> 00:08:09.160 And this is this is the sign of a really well 00:08:09.160 --> 00:08:10.879 coached team, a team that believes in itself. 00:08:11.319 --> 00:08:14.199 They seem to have a different level of confidence 00:08:14.199 --> 00:08:16.199 about them, despite the fact that everyone in 00:08:16.199 --> 00:08:19.180 the media, everyone on this podcast was picking 00:08:19.180 --> 00:08:21.399 them as like the upset special of the weekend. 00:08:21.839 --> 00:08:24.199 Um, they were so confident JJ going into this 00:08:24.199 --> 00:08:27.259 game that they literally gave Taryn Johnson a 00:08:27.259 --> 00:08:30.019 veteran rest day in week two and said, Hey man, 00:08:30.019 --> 00:08:32.159 you can take this one off. We got it. Right. 00:08:32.340 --> 00:08:35.220 Um, and he is Bill's mafia already declared that 00:08:35.220 --> 00:08:37.259 he will be good to go for Thursday night on the 00:08:37.259 --> 00:08:39.299 short week against the Miami dolphins, which 00:08:39.299 --> 00:08:41.799 looks like it was the plan. Right. So we've talked 00:08:41.799 --> 00:08:43.419 a little bit about the defense. Listen, we've 00:08:43.419 --> 00:08:46.299 took there's on the offense, James Cook was a 00:08:46.299 --> 00:08:48.919 big deal with regard to the Bills results in 00:08:48.919 --> 00:08:51.539 this game, but also kind of a sneaky under the 00:08:51.539 --> 00:08:54.429 radar thing to again. Not that the Bills weren't 00:08:54.429 --> 00:08:56.330 taking the game seriously They obviously were 00:08:56.330 --> 00:08:58.269 but they were also working some stuff out here 00:08:58.269 --> 00:09:01.149 to JJ and offense their formation flexibility 00:09:01.149 --> 00:09:03.730 was really impressive I was rewatching the film 00:09:03.730 --> 00:09:06.009 on this game because I've been kind of curious 00:09:06.009 --> 00:09:08.210 all season What are they gonna do with with these 00:09:08.210 --> 00:09:10.590 three talented tight ends that they have? And 00:09:10.590 --> 00:09:13.029 Dawson Knox Jackson Hawes and Dalton Kincaid 00:09:13.029 --> 00:09:16.669 and they rolled out 13 personnel on eight total 00:09:16.669 --> 00:09:20.009 offensive snaps this game and it looked great 00:09:20.009 --> 00:09:22.980 each time they did it They never passed out of 00:09:22.980 --> 00:09:25.220 this formation, but they used Dalton Kincaid 00:09:25.220 --> 00:09:27.259 in a lot of motion to help identify what the 00:09:27.259 --> 00:09:29.700 defense was trying to do. And then for the most 00:09:29.700 --> 00:09:31.600 part, because I've been paying attention to how 00:09:31.600 --> 00:09:33.899 Dalton Kincaid's blocking has or hasn't improved 00:09:33.899 --> 00:09:36.129 this year on film. So much better. It's a lot 00:09:36.129 --> 00:09:38.549 better. Now, most of the time they are running 00:09:38.549 --> 00:09:41.070 away from Kincaid, right? They line him up on 00:09:41.070 --> 00:09:43.049 the opposite side of the formation where the 00:09:43.049 --> 00:09:46.690 play was going. Save for one 13 personnel formation, 00:09:46.789 --> 00:09:49.350 the Elijah Moore touchdown, where they run to 00:09:49.350 --> 00:09:52.830 Kincaid side and he blocks Brandon Stevens into 00:09:52.830 --> 00:09:55.389 the sun. He made a great block on that play. 00:09:55.669 --> 00:09:57.370 Well, yeah, no, you're absolutely right. And 00:09:57.370 --> 00:10:00.570 even when he's on the backside of not the play 00:10:00.570 --> 00:10:03.509 side of a run, he is sealing off the backside. 00:10:03.509 --> 00:10:06.090 And that's really like People don't realize how 00:10:06.090 --> 00:10:08.590 important that is. There's a lot of players who 00:10:08.590 --> 00:10:11.090 work their way out of the league by being lazy 00:10:11.090 --> 00:10:13.870 backside run blockers because they don't think 00:10:13.870 --> 00:10:15.269 it's important. But when you have a back like 00:10:15.269 --> 00:10:18.029 James Cook, you better believe there's a chance 00:10:18.029 --> 00:10:19.970 that he's going to reverse the field and come 00:10:19.970 --> 00:10:21.610 all the way across the formation back towards 00:10:21.610 --> 00:10:23.809 you. There's always a chance of that. And if 00:10:23.809 --> 00:10:25.450 you're not doing a good job of getting a good 00:10:25.450 --> 00:10:28.690 seal on that block, that might be the whole run 00:10:28.690 --> 00:10:32.669 cooked. Yeah, he was doing a good job. The thing 00:10:32.669 --> 00:10:34.590 that I also found interesting was they had like 00:10:34.590 --> 00:10:37.649 Jackson Hawes and Dawson Ox mostly pulling through 00:10:37.649 --> 00:10:40.090 the hole as if they were fullbacks, like from 00:10:40.090 --> 00:10:43.669 the formation outside, inside through, you know, 00:10:43.750 --> 00:10:46.230 tackle and tackle guard holes. So it was that 00:10:46.230 --> 00:10:49.460 was really cool. Yeah, it's they've lined up 00:10:49.460 --> 00:10:53.659 Kincaid in preseason formations before at the 00:10:53.659 --> 00:10:56.059 fullback position. It's interesting to see what 00:10:56.059 --> 00:10:57.559 they're doing with him this year, because it's 00:10:57.559 --> 00:11:00.200 so clear to me, JJ, when he lines up at the tight 00:11:00.200 --> 00:11:02.320 end or a little bit outside at like the power 00:11:02.320 --> 00:11:05.779 slot, it's so clear to me that when he's in motion, 00:11:06.179 --> 00:11:09.889 he is still the primary pass catcher. that opposing 00:11:09.889 --> 00:11:12.909 defenses are focusing on, right? They're, they're 00:11:12.909 --> 00:11:15.149 still shading him. They're sending a lot of coverage 00:11:15.149 --> 00:11:18.389 his way. I mean, I counted just out of that 13, 00:11:18.389 --> 00:11:21.330 13 personnel where the bills didn't run it or 00:11:21.330 --> 00:11:24.570 didn't run a pass play out of it. Once us Gardner 00:11:24.570 --> 00:11:27.490 was shaded over, uh, Kincaid when he was in motion 00:11:27.490 --> 00:11:30.129 on half of those eight snaps, like he still gets 00:11:30.129 --> 00:11:32.870 a lot of respect from opposing defenses as a 00:11:32.870 --> 00:11:34.570 pass catcher. And Brady's learning how to use 00:11:34.570 --> 00:11:37.019 that as a bit of a decoy. Right. Well, I think, 00:11:37.159 --> 00:11:39.539 too, that that also points to something else, 00:11:39.600 --> 00:11:42.320 which is I don't know that anybody who's a casual 00:11:42.320 --> 00:11:44.179 Bills fan is going to say Dalton Kincaid is the 00:11:44.179 --> 00:11:46.500 most dangerous weapon in the passing game on 00:11:46.500 --> 00:11:48.419 this team just because he doesn't have the stats 00:11:48.419 --> 00:11:51.559 to prove it. But you should pay attention to 00:11:51.559 --> 00:11:54.379 what NFL people who spend 70 hours a week are 00:11:54.379 --> 00:11:57.580 doing when they look at this team. and they think 00:11:57.580 --> 00:12:00.179 he is the most dangerous pass catcher. If they 00:12:00.179 --> 00:12:02.919 think he is, then they're seeing the plays that 00:12:02.919 --> 00:12:05.120 didn't happen that could have happened. Josh 00:12:05.120 --> 00:12:07.559 Allen has been notoriously inaccurate when throwing 00:12:07.559 --> 00:12:10.059 to Kincaid over the whole last season. Kincaid 00:12:10.059 --> 00:12:12.820 was injured. There's a lot of things. Even still, 00:12:13.259 --> 00:12:15.679 the defensive coordinators in this league, the 00:12:15.679 --> 00:12:17.720 staff assistant, the quality control coaches 00:12:17.720 --> 00:12:19.879 who are preparing the cutups for team meetings 00:12:19.879 --> 00:12:22.700 and the defensive unit meetings. pointing him 00:12:22.700 --> 00:12:25.200 out and there's a reason right so he is a guy 00:12:25.200 --> 00:12:28.279 who is as advertised in a lot of ways except 00:12:28.279 --> 00:12:30.240 for his production so far and the production 00:12:30.240 --> 00:12:32.960 I think will come just based on two games of 00:12:32.960 --> 00:12:35.500 seeing him play I agree presuming health right 00:12:35.659 --> 00:12:37.860 Yep, presuming health, and I agree, and I have 00:12:37.860 --> 00:12:42.240 a very bold prediction to reverse, bold prediction 00:12:42.240 --> 00:12:45.399 sure to go wrong to reverse my ill -fated ways 00:12:45.399 --> 00:12:48.000 from this past week. Well, that's a great segue. 00:12:48.600 --> 00:12:50.759 Let's recap our prediction sure to go wrong for 00:12:50.759 --> 00:12:53.620 the Bill's Jets. In week one, we were looking 00:12:53.620 --> 00:12:55.700 at season long. We kind of did the score, but 00:12:55.700 --> 00:12:58.299 then we're talking about some season stuff. But 00:12:58.299 --> 00:12:59.860 week two, we went specifically into the game 00:12:59.860 --> 00:13:02.679 with just a couple of prop bets and the score 00:13:02.679 --> 00:13:06.059 prediction. Dan, you picked the Bills to win 00:13:06.059 --> 00:13:09.980 a narrow victory, 37 -35 against the Jets. I 00:13:09.980 --> 00:13:12.799 got one number right out of that score. I got 00:13:12.799 --> 00:13:17.279 the three correct. Yes, exactly. And then I picked 00:13:17.279 --> 00:13:20.340 the Bills to win 35 -27, again in a close one 00:13:20.340 --> 00:13:22.440 because I think we both believed in this Fields 00:13:22.440 --> 00:13:25.759 and Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson kind of triumvirate 00:13:25.759 --> 00:13:29.059 of attack. And in fact, of course, the Bills 00:13:29.059 --> 00:13:31.940 won 30 -10, and it wasn't even nearly that close. 00:13:31.940 --> 00:13:35.320 It was three minutes. 28 seconds left when the 00:13:35.320 --> 00:13:37.259 Jets scored their lone touchdown of the game. 00:13:38.120 --> 00:13:41.120 And some fun stats before we get into the predictions 00:13:41.120 --> 00:13:44.539 that are worthwhile. Tyrod Taylor had half of 00:13:44.539 --> 00:13:47.299 the Jets total yardage as a team, and he was 00:13:47.299 --> 00:13:51.120 in for the last five minutes with 77 yards rushing 00:13:51.120 --> 00:13:54.139 and passing. We love you, Tyrod. Yeah, we miss 00:13:54.139 --> 00:13:56.779 you, Tyrod, but not really. Josh Allen's awesome, 00:13:57.299 --> 00:13:59.120 but you could always come back as a backup maybe. 00:13:59.500 --> 00:14:01.759 But also Mitch came in when Josh Allen's nose 00:14:01.759 --> 00:14:06.220 was gushing blood. and threw one ball for a completion 00:14:06.220 --> 00:14:09.159 for 32 yards, while Justin Fields was three for 00:14:09.159 --> 00:14:12.519 11 for 27 yards on the day. So just more, more, 00:14:12.620 --> 00:14:15.559 just piling more logs on the fire of how terrible 00:14:15.559 --> 00:14:18.460 that offensive performance was by the Jets. And 00:14:18.460 --> 00:14:20.899 yeah, the Bills did run blitzes, zone man mix, 00:14:21.200 --> 00:14:23.919 match coverage. They, the defense looked a lot 00:14:23.919 --> 00:14:26.940 better, but also more simplified. They were not 00:14:26.940 --> 00:14:29.039 asking the defense. I think Ed Oliver missing. 00:14:29.590 --> 00:14:31.429 had some things to do with that. They were not 00:14:31.429 --> 00:14:34.029 asking the defensive lineman to do anything really 00:14:34.029 --> 00:14:37.669 spectacular other than play super gap sound and 00:14:37.669 --> 00:14:40.649 let the linebackers clean up and the DBs clean 00:14:40.649 --> 00:14:42.370 up, which they did really well. I think Trey 00:14:42.370 --> 00:14:45.330 White had surprisingly aggressive tackling. Christian 00:14:45.330 --> 00:14:48.429 Benford blew up a few plays. I think he might've, 00:14:48.429 --> 00:14:50.129 you know, heard some of the chirping about why 00:14:50.129 --> 00:14:52.330 do we pay this guy so much when he was passed 00:14:52.330 --> 00:14:55.830 on so much. But yeah, no, they really showed 00:14:55.830 --> 00:14:58.690 out this time and it was a wonderful thing. You 00:14:58.690 --> 00:15:02.610 had turnovers over under half of an interception. 00:15:02.769 --> 00:15:04.590 We both picked under. And in fact, we were both 00:15:04.590 --> 00:15:07.669 right. There were no interceptions thrown or 00:15:07.669 --> 00:15:10.250 caught in the game. Yeah. I like that. Yeah. 00:15:10.769 --> 00:15:12.889 And then we were right about one thing. We were 00:15:12.889 --> 00:15:14.669 right about two things because we both had Joey 00:15:14.669 --> 00:15:17.950 Bosa sack. That was my prop. Over under half 00:15:17.950 --> 00:15:20.549 a sack and he ended up getting one. So take it. 00:15:20.750 --> 00:15:23.970 So take that, Dan's boss. We know something. 00:15:25.819 --> 00:15:27.820 Sharon, thank you for listening. Yes, no, thank 00:15:27.820 --> 00:15:29.860 you so much. I'm so glad to hear that you're 00:15:29.860 --> 00:15:32.720 a fan. I really like being employed. Please also 00:15:32.720 --> 00:15:35.220 keep him employed because I need him to continue 00:15:35.220 --> 00:15:38.279 to pay for Instagram ad revenue. Yes, absolutely. 00:15:38.460 --> 00:15:41.620 Or expenditures. One one more thing I want to 00:15:41.620 --> 00:15:43.259 transition away from this game But one more thing 00:15:43.259 --> 00:15:45.159 I want to get your take on and this is gonna 00:15:45.159 --> 00:15:47.299 sound like a troll when I ask it But it's not 00:15:47.299 --> 00:15:50.059 a troll What did you think of Deanna Walker getting 00:15:50.059 --> 00:15:52.320 the start next to Dequan Jones at the beginning 00:15:52.320 --> 00:15:55.899 of the game and Dequan Jones? being shifted over 00:15:55.899 --> 00:16:01.759 to the the three tech um I I Don't know what 00:16:01.759 --> 00:16:04.080 I think about I think he played fine in the position. 00:16:04.100 --> 00:16:07.039 I don't think I think he was fine. I think TJ 00:16:07.039 --> 00:16:11.440 Sanders was fine Zion Logue was fine. None of 00:16:11.440 --> 00:16:13.840 them put in any kind of, anywhere close to the 00:16:13.840 --> 00:16:15.940 performance that Oliver put together last week 00:16:15.940 --> 00:16:17.840 against the Ravens because he basically kept 00:16:17.840 --> 00:16:21.340 the Bills defense alive. But it was interesting 00:16:21.340 --> 00:16:25.919 to me because that's, especially when we talk 00:16:25.919 --> 00:16:29.240 about the two of those, I don't, the two of those 00:16:29.240 --> 00:16:32.080 players seem to be out of position for that, 00:16:32.200 --> 00:16:34.200 for how they started them, right? Agreed, yeah. 00:16:34.580 --> 00:16:37.789 I don't think that, you know, Dequan Jones has 00:16:37.789 --> 00:16:40.409 always been more of a space eater one tech. And 00:16:40.409 --> 00:16:43.870 for him to take, here's what I do think. I think 00:16:43.870 --> 00:16:45.870 that they lean on Ed Oliver's position to call 00:16:45.870 --> 00:16:49.350 out gaps, stunts, different games that the defensive 00:16:49.350 --> 00:16:52.029 line was doing. And I think it's rather than 00:16:52.029 --> 00:16:54.029 trying to put that on a rookie for their second 00:16:54.029 --> 00:16:55.809 game in the league. I think they probably just 00:16:55.809 --> 00:16:58.190 swapped it up and had Dequan Jones take over 00:16:58.190 --> 00:17:01.649 some of the line calls. Right. Just to keep it 00:17:01.649 --> 00:17:03.450 organized because he's the better in the room. 00:17:03.529 --> 00:17:06.450 He knows what he's doing. So that's probably 00:17:06.450 --> 00:17:08.910 that's probably what they did which why wouldn't 00:17:08.910 --> 00:17:10.710 you have Greg Rousseau or Joey Bosa? Probably 00:17:10.710 --> 00:17:13.009 because they you know, you're across the whole 00:17:13.009 --> 00:17:15.210 Coming off the edge, right coming off the edge. 00:17:15.269 --> 00:17:16.809 You're across the whole line So it's a little 00:17:16.809 --> 00:17:18.430 bit harder to hear each other. So maybe that's 00:17:18.430 --> 00:17:21.210 maybe it's just that it's logistics Yeah, no, 00:17:21.470 --> 00:17:23.869 I thought the defensive line despite the switch 00:17:23.869 --> 00:17:26.769 -ups was perfectly anonymous for most of the 00:17:26.769 --> 00:17:29.369 game Right some good pen good penetration up 00:17:29.369 --> 00:17:32.349 the middle on pass rush reps But outside of that 00:17:32.349 --> 00:17:35.309 perfectly anonymous and I will take that after 00:17:35.309 --> 00:17:38.569 the Baltimore game. The DB's, however, man, stout 00:17:38.569 --> 00:17:40.970 in the run game. Cole Bishop, shout out, Christian 00:17:40.970 --> 00:17:44.450 Benford, total maniac. I don't, I don't know 00:17:44.450 --> 00:17:49.349 that there is a cornerback that does more holistically 00:17:49.349 --> 00:17:52.130 for their team's defensive scheme than Christian 00:17:52.130 --> 00:17:54.349 Benford does. Right? Right. He's like to me, 00:17:54.890 --> 00:17:59.150 the, the Heinz Ward of cornerbacks. Heinz Ward 00:17:59.150 --> 00:18:01.839 was never the best receiver. in the league at 00:18:01.839 --> 00:18:04.559 any given time, but he was a great receiver and 00:18:04.559 --> 00:18:06.799 he was an even better all around football player. 00:18:07.119 --> 00:18:09.359 And to me, that's what Benford is. He's a great 00:18:09.359 --> 00:18:12.059 cornerback, but that dude is a football player 00:18:12.059 --> 00:18:15.259 and he will do whatever you ask him to do. Absolutely. 00:18:15.420 --> 00:18:18.059 Yeah, no. And again, I think it's the kind of 00:18:18.059 --> 00:18:21.000 thing where the bills paid him a lot of money. 00:18:22.319 --> 00:18:25.980 And games like that show you why, right? Even 00:18:25.980 --> 00:18:27.519 games like the Ravens, like you had mentioned 00:18:27.519 --> 00:18:33.279 on the previous pod, he was requiring an opposing 00:18:33.279 --> 00:18:35.759 quarterback to be elite to make completions. 00:18:35.799 --> 00:18:37.359 And they did make completions on him, which of 00:18:37.359 --> 00:18:39.319 course he hated, but he tackled almost immediately. 00:18:39.480 --> 00:18:41.160 His run after the catch has always been the lowest 00:18:41.160 --> 00:18:44.460 since he entered the league. It's bottom five 00:18:44.460 --> 00:18:46.400 players in the league year over year because 00:18:46.400 --> 00:18:49.059 he does not let people get away if he does get 00:18:49.059 --> 00:18:51.890 a completion on his coverage. Yeah, without a 00:18:51.890 --> 00:18:53.869 doubt, man. Without a doubt. I think that's a 00:18:53.869 --> 00:18:56.150 great spot to leave it on a high note. Again, 00:18:56.650 --> 00:18:58.910 positivity being the theme of this particular 00:18:58.910 --> 00:19:02.009 pod. And let's move on from week two to week 00:19:02.009 --> 00:19:04.049 three, JJ. Quick turnaround, as you mentioned, 00:19:04.490 --> 00:19:07.410 it is Finn's Week here on the pod. Always a special 00:19:07.410 --> 00:19:12.470 tradition. We got Miami, man. Where do you want 00:19:12.470 --> 00:19:13.930 to start with this one? And I'm going to give 00:19:13.930 --> 00:19:16.509 you options that are outside of the normal offense, 00:19:16.509 --> 00:19:19.109 defense, special teams. Do you want to start 00:19:19.109 --> 00:19:22.480 with? Either of those sides of the ball or do 00:19:22.480 --> 00:19:25.160 you generally want to start with the vibes coming 00:19:25.160 --> 00:19:27.980 out of Miami? They are they're like the story 00:19:27.980 --> 00:19:30.119 on this week in this quick turn. Let's let's 00:19:30.119 --> 00:19:33.059 just gen Z this thing and go vibes. Let's go. 00:19:33.339 --> 00:19:35.460 Yeah, let's go. Let's just talk about the vibes. 00:19:35.799 --> 00:19:41.039 The vibes are bad for the Dolphins. Very bad. 00:19:41.099 --> 00:19:45.920 My sophisticated analysis. The vibes are that 00:19:45.920 --> 00:19:49.289 they did not invest enough in their interior 00:19:49.289 --> 00:19:52.970 offensive line for a like a billionth consecutive 00:19:52.970 --> 00:19:57.789 season and that they have an excellent left tackle 00:19:57.789 --> 00:20:01.230 and barely anything else and Devon Aitchan is 00:20:01.230 --> 00:20:04.769 keeping this offense afloat single -handedly 00:20:04.769 --> 00:20:08.750 by just being slippery because he has the lowest 00:20:08.750 --> 00:20:11.609 percentage of runs without contact in the backfield 00:20:11.609 --> 00:20:13.599 in the league but he's trying, he's breaking 00:20:13.599 --> 00:20:15.920 tackles, right? Like he's trying to make something 00:20:15.920 --> 00:20:17.940 out of nothing almost every play. And he's doing 00:20:17.940 --> 00:20:20.299 a decent enough job at it. When they even give 00:20:20.299 --> 00:20:22.500 him a tiny sliver of space, he's rushing for 00:20:22.500 --> 00:20:25.400 17, 18, 19 yards. So that's still a threat to 00:20:25.400 --> 00:20:28.880 any opposing defense. But Tua looks bad. He looks 00:20:28.880 --> 00:20:33.059 off target. It's, you know, Terry Kill, I think 00:20:33.059 --> 00:20:35.880 had one catch in the third quarter. Like, it 00:20:35.880 --> 00:20:37.720 was a while before they got him involved. I think 00:20:37.720 --> 00:20:41.569 he ran a few balls. But yeah, so it it's It is 00:20:41.569 --> 00:20:44.710 definitely not the high flying super tuned up 00:20:44.710 --> 00:20:48.450 offense that we've seen in years past from the 00:20:48.450 --> 00:20:50.910 Dolphins They still hung over 20 was over 25 00:20:50.910 --> 00:20:53.509 points 27 points something like that Yeah on 00:20:53.509 --> 00:20:55.970 the on the again, and I will say this because 00:20:55.970 --> 00:20:59.819 this matters the the backup secondary for the 00:20:59.819 --> 00:21:02.119 most part for the New England Patriots. Right. 00:21:02.400 --> 00:21:06.059 Yeah, exactly. Yeah. So it's again, it is all 00:21:06.059 --> 00:21:08.660 relative. The the productivity you have, the 00:21:08.660 --> 00:21:11.059 defense matters, right? The EPA per play of that 00:21:11.059 --> 00:21:14.480 defense matters. So this now what we see then 00:21:14.480 --> 00:21:18.740 is the is the Dolphins coming into this game. 00:21:18.859 --> 00:21:21.819 You know, the Bills are like pretty much the 00:21:21.819 --> 00:21:25.299 top top or second offense in terms of power rankings. 00:21:26.029 --> 00:21:27.869 Top three, at least, depending on where you're 00:21:27.869 --> 00:21:30.250 looking for your stats. They are number three 00:21:30.250 --> 00:21:32.730 in offensive DDOA currently after two games. 00:21:33.049 --> 00:21:37.009 There we go. They are middle of the pack on defense, 00:21:38.289 --> 00:21:41.869 abysmally low prior to this week and then this 00:21:41.869 --> 00:21:44.029 week pulled them up from like the bottom of the 00:21:44.029 --> 00:21:46.769 barrel to mid middle of the barrel. However, 00:21:47.289 --> 00:21:50.789 the Dolphins overall EPA are like 26th in the 00:21:50.789 --> 00:21:53.849 league, defense worst in the league, offense 00:21:53.849 --> 00:21:57.990 like 20th in the league it's it's looking bad 00:21:57.990 --> 00:22:00.529 and they've played their two opponents have been 00:22:00.529 --> 00:22:03.630 two of the worst in terms of competitive EPA 00:22:03.630 --> 00:22:10.190 so all of that saying um they are not looking 00:22:10.190 --> 00:22:11.789 too hot and the bills are 11 and a half point 00:22:11.789 --> 00:22:14.970 favorites at home so that number's gone up to 00:22:14.970 --> 00:22:17.950 12 and a half since uh since this afternoon that's 00:22:17.950 --> 00:22:21.140 yeah i have to update my my notes here yeah Yeah, 00:22:21.279 --> 00:22:23.400 DraftKings usually doesn't miss on these things. 00:22:24.339 --> 00:22:29.839 But I watched a lot of Tua tape from the first 00:22:29.839 --> 00:22:34.759 two games this season. And it is the same story 00:22:34.759 --> 00:22:38.039 over and over with this Miami offense. If they 00:22:38.039 --> 00:22:41.819 cannot get the run game going to make the offense 00:22:41.819 --> 00:22:46.529 feel a little bit more unpredictable. and they 00:22:46.529 --> 00:22:49.509 can't get Tua to create within structure. If 00:22:49.509 --> 00:22:51.670 they've got to rely on Tua to create outside 00:22:51.670 --> 00:22:54.470 of the pocket or outside of structure, dude, 00:22:54.829 --> 00:22:57.490 this offense is a tough watch if that's got to 00:22:57.490 --> 00:22:59.789 happen. It's all got to begin and end for them 00:22:59.789 --> 00:23:01.650 with the run game this Thursday if they want 00:23:01.650 --> 00:23:04.130 a shot against the Buffalo Bills on the road, 00:23:04.190 --> 00:23:06.789 and really to kind of salvage their season. I 00:23:06.789 --> 00:23:09.049 mean, this is a team that's in a must -win, and 00:23:09.049 --> 00:23:11.910 the answers that they need to fix what ails them 00:23:11.910 --> 00:23:14.630 feels like... It is the answers that have eluded 00:23:14.630 --> 00:23:17.190 them for the larger part of two and a half years 00:23:17.190 --> 00:23:19.769 under Mike McDaniel, who is a coach that I like. 00:23:20.130 --> 00:23:23.289 And I get now that he is losing the act, right? 00:23:23.450 --> 00:23:27.230 The in Rex Ryan's words, the nerd boy act is 00:23:27.230 --> 00:23:29.609 kind of wearing thin. And I totally get that. 00:23:29.650 --> 00:23:32.170 But he's a smart dude who gets offense and gets 00:23:32.170 --> 00:23:34.809 football. And it just seems like from a skill 00:23:34.809 --> 00:23:37.539 standpoint. The cover on the offensive line is 00:23:37.539 --> 00:23:40.099 bare. The wide receiver group, you cannot take 00:23:40.099 --> 00:23:42.779 advantage of their tools because of that. The 00:23:42.779 --> 00:23:45.099 traditional run game non -existent, they're averaging 00:23:45.099 --> 00:23:48.059 less than three yards per carry in traditional 00:23:48.059 --> 00:23:50.559 scripted runs. And the only thing they have really 00:23:50.559 --> 00:23:54.039 going for them is that Devon HN is an absolute 00:23:54.039 --> 00:23:56.099 miracle, catching the ball out of the backfield 00:23:56.099 --> 00:23:58.319 and scrambling for extra yards is the only thing 00:23:58.319 --> 00:24:00.380 to your point that's kept them in games this 00:24:00.380 --> 00:24:02.819 season. And I don't know if you're the Miami 00:24:02.819 --> 00:24:06.039 Dolphins having more questions than answers. 00:24:06.079 --> 00:24:08.500 And the way that you do is going to be enough 00:24:08.500 --> 00:24:10.720 to go up against a Buffalo Bills defense that 00:24:10.720 --> 00:24:12.579 has banged up. And we'll get to the injury report 00:24:12.579 --> 00:24:15.339 in a minute, but still well coached enough to 00:24:15.339 --> 00:24:18.400 know exactly where to hurt you. Right. Absolutely. 00:24:18.920 --> 00:24:21.740 One, I think, too, it's interesting that, you 00:24:21.740 --> 00:24:24.759 know, they have the worst left guard in the in 00:24:24.759 --> 00:24:28.940 the league in 70 today as of as of recent rankings. 00:24:29.099 --> 00:24:32.519 They have one of the bottom third center, one 00:24:32.519 --> 00:24:34.940 of the worst right guards. And these are all, 00:24:34.940 --> 00:24:37.140 you know, these are investments that they've 00:24:37.140 --> 00:24:40.079 made at different times. It's a young line, but 00:24:40.079 --> 00:24:43.940 it's bad. And then thankfully for them, they 00:24:43.940 --> 00:24:46.779 have a healthy Patrick Paul, who's a second year 00:24:46.779 --> 00:24:48.720 in the league and looks like a very, very good 00:24:48.720 --> 00:24:51.140 left tackle. And when they run to his side, he 00:24:51.140 --> 00:24:54.180 tends to make some, give some space to Devon 00:24:54.180 --> 00:24:57.720 Aitchin. But yeah, I mean, Hill and Waddle, they 00:24:57.720 --> 00:25:00.420 look frustrated because the protection, Tua is 00:25:00.420 --> 00:25:04.279 not the player who can shrug off a sack. and 00:25:04.279 --> 00:25:05.920 make something happen like you mentioned with 00:25:05.920 --> 00:25:09.140 second reaction plays. And this offense needs 00:25:09.140 --> 00:25:12.440 that because the line is so abysmal. And I agree. 00:25:13.180 --> 00:25:17.779 I like Mike McDaniel to an extent. I agree that 00:25:17.779 --> 00:25:20.500 he's a smart offensive mind. I think that he 00:25:20.500 --> 00:25:22.819 came up through the Shanahan tree, right? Shanahan, 00:25:22.920 --> 00:25:26.700 yeah. Yeah. So anyone who's watched the Dolphins 00:25:26.700 --> 00:25:29.440 since he started there can say that they do interesting 00:25:29.440 --> 00:25:33.130 competitive things on offense. Some other coaches 00:25:33.130 --> 00:25:35.309 get so frustrated. They claim it's cheating when 00:25:35.309 --> 00:25:36.930 it's really just working within the rule books, 00:25:37.089 --> 00:25:40.450 right? You know those kind of orbits motions 00:25:40.450 --> 00:25:42.049 and running a little bit towards the line when 00:25:42.049 --> 00:25:46.170 they snap the ball stuff like that But he does 00:25:46.170 --> 00:25:48.349 push the limits. He does plan a good offensive 00:25:48.349 --> 00:25:52.250 attack The problem is whether it's him or the 00:25:52.250 --> 00:25:54.430 front office They're not getting the giving the 00:25:54.430 --> 00:25:57.710 talent that they need to be successful And I 00:25:57.710 --> 00:25:59.930 think this is the biggest problem. I think Mike 00:25:59.930 --> 00:26:02.720 McDaniels is a pretty terrible like motivator 00:26:02.720 --> 00:26:05.140 and leader of men. I think that's, that's becoming 00:26:05.140 --> 00:26:07.339 obvious. Yeah. I don't think that players take 00:26:07.339 --> 00:26:09.180 him seriously. I don't think they respect him. 00:26:09.240 --> 00:26:11.799 I don't think that they care about breaking his 00:26:11.799 --> 00:26:14.519 rules, right? Like I think that's the kind of 00:26:14.519 --> 00:26:17.039 thing that's where he is falling is he is not, 00:26:17.319 --> 00:26:20.500 he's a, he's a great offensive and football mind. 00:26:20.900 --> 00:26:23.099 I think that's true, but I think he's not a good 00:26:23.099 --> 00:26:25.200 leader of men. And that's absolutely an important 00:26:25.200 --> 00:26:27.299 component of being a good head coach. You, you 00:26:27.299 --> 00:26:29.299 don't make it in this, in the league just by 00:26:29.299 --> 00:26:31.640 being smart at your job. Everybody's smart at 00:26:31.640 --> 00:26:34.740 their job for the most part. Absolutely unless 00:26:34.740 --> 00:26:39.259 they're legacy kids like the Ryans In which case 00:26:39.259 --> 00:26:41.799 you don't need to be just right like three three 00:26:41.799 --> 00:26:44.279 yards in a cloud of dust and Get in front of 00:26:44.279 --> 00:26:46.400 a mic and say a dumb thing every now and then 00:26:46.400 --> 00:26:51.460 So JJ all that all the vibe check being complete 00:26:51.460 --> 00:26:55.059 with this team, right? There they this is a must 00:26:55.059 --> 00:26:57.220 -win game for them Close to a must -win game 00:26:57.220 --> 00:26:59.440 as there is in week three for a football team. 00:26:59.720 --> 00:27:02.319 They got to change the momentum They have to 00:27:02.319 --> 00:27:04.440 wash off the stink of their failure against the 00:27:04.440 --> 00:27:06.660 Bills year after year after year and so many 00:27:06.660 --> 00:27:09.240 different situations They're doing it at what 00:27:09.240 --> 00:27:12.200 seems it like a very distant Disadvantages time 00:27:12.200 --> 00:27:14.859 for them not just where they are culturally with 00:27:14.859 --> 00:27:16.980 this team But also where they are health and 00:27:16.980 --> 00:27:20.180 talent wise as well. So, you know How are they 00:27:20.180 --> 00:27:22.160 going to choose to attack this Buffalo Bills 00:27:22.160 --> 00:27:24.539 defense? And I think the answer is going to be 00:27:24.539 --> 00:27:28.079 in the running back room. They are, they can 00:27:28.079 --> 00:27:31.660 no longer clear those deep, quick windows and 00:27:31.660 --> 00:27:34.579 under 2 .5 seconds because teams are just onto 00:27:34.579 --> 00:27:37.400 that stuff, downfield to Hill and Waddle. And 00:27:37.400 --> 00:27:40.579 the Bills have been one of the, the forebears 00:27:40.579 --> 00:27:43.859 in shutting down and clouding all of Tua's passing 00:27:43.859 --> 00:27:46.440 lanes and forcing him off his first read. But 00:27:46.539 --> 00:27:48.259 Other teams have caught on too. They've played 00:27:48.259 --> 00:27:50.359 the Colts and they've played a very depleted, 00:27:50.460 --> 00:27:53.140 as we talked about, New England Patriots defense. 00:27:53.319 --> 00:27:56.259 And both of those squads, JJ, have forced Tua 00:27:56.259 --> 00:28:00.140 and Tua combined 2 .6 seconds average time to 00:28:00.140 --> 00:28:03.220 throw this season, which is the second longest 00:28:03.220 --> 00:28:05.920 time to throw of his career. We know that Tua 00:28:05.920 --> 00:28:09.359 lives and breathes in that zone under 2 .5 seconds. 00:28:09.740 --> 00:28:12.660 Last year, he got the ball out at a record pace 00:28:12.660 --> 00:28:15.700 for him at 2 .2. This year, Teams are figuring 00:28:15.700 --> 00:28:17.420 out how to make them hold down to the ball that 00:28:17.420 --> 00:28:20.000 extra half second longer. And it showed up not 00:28:20.000 --> 00:28:22.240 just in his turnover worthy throws where he ranks 00:28:22.240 --> 00:28:24.779 fourth in the league after two weeks, JJ, but 00:28:24.779 --> 00:28:27.619 two has also taken eight sacks this year behind 00:28:27.619 --> 00:28:31.099 that offensive line. Right. So if you are the 00:28:31.099 --> 00:28:34.630 Miami dolphins. It's not just a traditional run 00:28:34.630 --> 00:28:36.670 game you need to get going. You need to take 00:28:36.670 --> 00:28:39.390 advantage of where this bill's defense has gotten 00:28:39.390 --> 00:28:42.190 got in the past, and that is running backs, catching 00:28:42.190 --> 00:28:44.210 the ball out of the backfield. And you've got 00:28:44.210 --> 00:28:46.750 one of the best in Devon HN. And I think we're 00:28:46.750 --> 00:28:48.210 going to see a lot of that from this Dolphins 00:28:48.210 --> 00:28:51.529 offense, JJ. They've run 21 personnel about a 00:28:51.529 --> 00:28:54.289 third of the time, 28 .6 % of the time, according 00:28:54.289 --> 00:28:58.049 to NextGen stats this season to a success rate. 00:28:58.240 --> 00:29:01.740 that is tied for seventh in the league. If you 00:29:01.740 --> 00:29:04.380 are the Dolphins, you've got to start early in 00:29:04.380 --> 00:29:06.519 establishing not just the traditional run game, 00:29:06.819 --> 00:29:09.039 but you've got to make the Bills leery of the 00:29:09.039 --> 00:29:10.880 line of scrimmage with your running backs catching 00:29:10.880 --> 00:29:14.000 balls out of the backfield to free up some of 00:29:14.000 --> 00:29:16.559 those deeper mid -level passing, middle of the 00:29:16.559 --> 00:29:19.200 field passing lanes that Tua likes to hit. Because 00:29:19.200 --> 00:29:22.200 if you can't do that, JJ, I just don't know that 00:29:22.200 --> 00:29:25.059 this Miami Dolphins offense has an answer for 00:29:25.059 --> 00:29:27.680 the Buffalo Bills. Yeah, no, I would agree completely. 00:29:27.819 --> 00:29:31.400 I think that it's a matter of the bills are going 00:29:31.400 --> 00:29:33.200 to be pinning their ears back and trying to get 00:29:33.200 --> 00:29:36.720 them in long and late downs so they can get after 00:29:36.720 --> 00:29:39.220 and be physical with Tua because they know from 00:29:39.220 --> 00:29:42.839 experience that he generally declines in his 00:29:42.839 --> 00:29:45.240 accuracy and gameplay the more times you put 00:29:45.240 --> 00:29:48.329 him on the ground, right? I'm also shocked that 00:29:48.329 --> 00:29:49.789 he was sacked eight times and isn't out with 00:29:49.789 --> 00:29:51.750 a concussion already. And that's not wishing 00:29:51.750 --> 00:29:53.769 any ill on him. It's just I worry about that 00:29:53.769 --> 00:29:56.690 dude because he is he's in like the highest level 00:29:56.690 --> 00:29:58.730 of danger zone for somebody with repeat head 00:29:58.730 --> 00:30:03.190 injuries. And so, yeah, I've agreed that if I 00:30:03.190 --> 00:30:05.829 am trying to plan this game, I'm trying to make 00:30:05.829 --> 00:30:10.450 the Bills aggressive rush hurt them because I 00:30:10.450 --> 00:30:13.329 know I can't stop it. And the Bills have been 00:30:13.329 --> 00:30:16.890 using a five man pressure on something like 50 00:30:16.890 --> 00:30:19.390 % of, you know, 40 or 50 % of passing downs. 00:30:19.849 --> 00:30:21.569 We saw it a lot the preseason, and they've rolled 00:30:21.569 --> 00:30:24.289 it out here in the regular season. And the ideal, 00:30:24.490 --> 00:30:26.430 the thing that's so amazing about that is with 00:30:26.430 --> 00:30:28.529 a five -man pressure, it leaves you six for coverage, 00:30:28.869 --> 00:30:32.089 and it also, and the most an offensive can have 00:30:32.089 --> 00:30:36.529 is five, you know, five guys out in a pass formation, 00:30:36.630 --> 00:30:40.430 and so you at least have man up with one helper 00:30:40.430 --> 00:30:43.130 in the coverage, and then on the rush, you have 00:30:43.130 --> 00:30:45.329 man up unless they leave somebody in to chip. 00:30:45.420 --> 00:30:48.200 like a tight end or running back, which just 00:30:48.200 --> 00:30:50.380 frees up another person in coverage to help with 00:30:50.380 --> 00:30:52.900 combo coverage. So with that said, I think that 00:30:52.900 --> 00:30:56.660 the Bills five man pressure look is going to 00:30:56.660 --> 00:30:58.720 the the Dolphins are going to try to find ways 00:30:58.720 --> 00:31:01.400 to scheme someone out of position so they can 00:31:01.400 --> 00:31:03.460 get those underneath throws. Because like you 00:31:03.460 --> 00:31:06.480 said, nothing long range is going to open up 00:31:06.480 --> 00:31:09.779 unless they unlock the Bills from that defensive 00:31:09.779 --> 00:31:12.119 aspect, because that's what the Bills are going 00:31:12.119 --> 00:31:15.509 to protect. deep always first, right? So they're 00:31:15.509 --> 00:31:17.150 going to start killing them with the screen and 00:31:17.150 --> 00:31:20.150 short game in order to get anything going. And 00:31:20.150 --> 00:31:21.910 if they try to get those long developing pass 00:31:21.910 --> 00:31:24.289 plays without unlocking that coverage, two is 00:31:24.289 --> 00:31:25.809 going to be just staring at tight window throws 00:31:25.809 --> 00:31:28.089 that he doesn't feel confident to make. And then 00:31:28.089 --> 00:31:30.390 he's going to be on his back. Yeah, for sure. 00:31:30.710 --> 00:31:33.009 This is a game where if the secondary was a bit 00:31:33.009 --> 00:31:35.230 healthier, I'd just be like, you know what, just 00:31:35.230 --> 00:31:37.430 play dime the whole time and tell Cole Bishop, 00:31:37.609 --> 00:31:41.269 divine HN is yours. Wherever he goes, you go. 00:31:41.339 --> 00:31:44.160 Line it up and cover for and double Devon Aitchin 00:31:44.160 --> 00:31:46.099 with, you know, Terrell Bernard and Cole Bishop. 00:31:46.799 --> 00:31:50.099 Exactly. Right. Exactly. So, yeah, JJ, I mean, 00:31:50.259 --> 00:31:52.500 not much else to say to I think we can say about 00:31:52.500 --> 00:31:55.680 this with surprisingly limited Dolphins offense 00:31:55.680 --> 00:31:57.900 against the Buffalo Bills defense. Let's flip 00:31:57.900 --> 00:31:59.339 it over to the other side of the ball. Let's 00:31:59.339 --> 00:32:03.559 talk Bills offense here because I got this going 00:32:03.559 --> 00:32:06.170 to sound ridiculously arrogant. I think they're 00:32:06.170 --> 00:32:08.289 going to be able to do whatever they want to 00:32:08.289 --> 00:32:10.750 do against this Miami defense as long as pass 00:32:10.750 --> 00:32:13.250 protection holds up against what is still an 00:32:13.250 --> 00:32:16.009 effective line. This is a defensive line that 00:32:16.009 --> 00:32:18.730 combined for three sacks against Drake May last 00:32:18.730 --> 00:32:21.210 week, albeit the New England offensive line is 00:32:21.210 --> 00:32:24.920 not what the Buffalo offensive line is, but Josh 00:32:24.920 --> 00:32:26.839 Allen is also one of the hardest QBs in the league 00:32:26.839 --> 00:32:30.359 to sack knock on wood So I gotta believe that 00:32:30.359 --> 00:32:33.039 he's gonna pick the secondary apart to death 00:32:33.039 --> 00:32:35.359 and James Cook is gonna have himself a day both 00:32:35.359 --> 00:32:37.740 catching the ball the backfield and Running the 00:32:37.740 --> 00:32:41.839 ball as well Yeah, it's it's not it does nothing 00:32:41.839 --> 00:32:43.920 here intimidates me I think chop Robinson and 00:32:43.920 --> 00:32:46.539 Bradley Chubb have shown Jalen Phillips to some 00:32:46.539 --> 00:32:49.019 extent have all shown that they have an occasional 00:32:49.019 --> 00:32:52.690 flash play here and there They all actually remind 00:32:52.690 --> 00:32:54.789 me a little bit, and if this is insulting to 00:32:54.789 --> 00:32:56.549 our dear friend Steve or other Dolphins fans 00:32:56.549 --> 00:32:58.829 listening, I'm sorry. They all remind me a little 00:32:58.829 --> 00:33:01.410 bit of AJ Appaneza. You know, like I think Chop 00:33:01.410 --> 00:33:05.589 Robinson is - It's insulting to me. Yeah. Chop 00:33:05.589 --> 00:33:09.769 Robinson has shown some solid flashes, but he 00:33:09.769 --> 00:33:12.769 has been pretty quiet and insignificant in games 00:33:12.769 --> 00:33:15.069 against the Bills against elite tackles, right? 00:33:15.150 --> 00:33:18.470 Like against scrubs, he looks amazing, as do 00:33:18.470 --> 00:33:21.460 most relatively talented defensive ends. But 00:33:21.460 --> 00:33:24.440 when he plays a solid team with very good tackles 00:33:24.440 --> 00:33:27.339 like the Bills have, or plays a team that schemes 00:33:27.339 --> 00:33:30.299 specific ways to help out a little bit with his 00:33:30.299 --> 00:33:33.759 speed rush, if you can cut down that speed rush, 00:33:33.940 --> 00:33:37.819 he doesn't have much left. Similarly, Bradley 00:33:37.819 --> 00:33:39.240 Chubb looks a little old. He looks like he's 00:33:39.240 --> 00:33:42.380 coming off those injuries that have cleaned him 00:33:42.380 --> 00:33:45.579 out from several seasons. Same with Jalen Phillips, 00:33:45.640 --> 00:33:48.559 who I think was very promising first coming out. 00:33:49.690 --> 00:33:52.130 It was Greg Rousseau's running mate at Miami, 00:33:52.589 --> 00:33:54.869 actually retired from football while in college, 00:33:54.910 --> 00:33:57.549 then came back after an injury, and then has 00:33:57.549 --> 00:33:59.309 had injury issues in the league as well. And 00:33:59.309 --> 00:34:02.430 I think that they all look, you know, kind of 00:34:02.430 --> 00:34:05.730 a little banged up, a little bit tentative in 00:34:05.730 --> 00:34:07.529 some regards, except for Chop Robinson. And then 00:34:07.529 --> 00:34:11.869 Chop Robinson, if you have a plan for him, I'm 00:34:11.869 --> 00:34:14.409 not very scared of this pass rush is all I'm 00:34:14.409 --> 00:34:17.289 saying. Especially with the Bills' tackles. That 00:34:17.289 --> 00:34:20.070 being said, they need to take it seriously, of 00:34:20.070 --> 00:34:23.590 course, and they're not going to have many problems 00:34:23.590 --> 00:34:25.510 freeing up. They don't have to hold up their 00:34:25.510 --> 00:34:27.969 blocks for more than a few seconds because I 00:34:27.969 --> 00:34:31.590 do think that even with limited man -beaters 00:34:31.590 --> 00:34:34.690 on the outside for the Bills, I think Khalil 00:34:34.690 --> 00:34:37.750 Shaqir, Josh Palmer, even Keon Coleman to some 00:34:37.750 --> 00:34:39.730 extent are going to be able to make some hay 00:34:39.730 --> 00:34:44.989 against Jack Jones, Rasul Douglas, and Jason 00:34:44.989 --> 00:34:48.820 Marshall Jr. Who are players? The only one of 00:34:48.820 --> 00:34:51.159 those names I know is Russell Douglas. Because 00:34:51.159 --> 00:34:53.039 he played for the Bills. Yeah. Who we all remember, 00:34:53.199 --> 00:34:55.960 right? Yeah, man. I mean the injuries to the 00:34:55.960 --> 00:35:00.340 sorry depleted secondary are just voluminous 00:35:00.340 --> 00:35:04.159 for the Dolphins. Storm Duck has not practiced 00:35:04.159 --> 00:35:10.550 as of today. Specified ankle injury. If I to 00:35:10.550 --> 00:35:13.610 Milafanu's their safety who you and I will I 00:35:13.610 --> 00:35:15.289 liked him you I liked him was he was coming out 00:35:15.289 --> 00:35:17.070 of Syracuse right kids could kid coming out of 00:35:17.070 --> 00:35:18.949 Syracuse Yeah, I think we both liked him. Yeah, 00:35:19.110 --> 00:35:21.849 we have injuries. Yeah did not practice I mean, 00:35:22.110 --> 00:35:25.630 it's Jalen Waddle shoulder injury shocker, right? 00:35:26.070 --> 00:35:28.769 Darren Waller is still limited in practice. Malik 00:35:28.769 --> 00:35:31.050 Washington, Jalen Wright. I mean, the list goes 00:35:31.050 --> 00:35:33.250 on. The Bills, they've got their own injuries, 00:35:33.429 --> 00:35:36.050 too. I don't expect Ed Oliver to play again in 00:35:36.050 --> 00:35:38.510 this particular this particular game. But Matt 00:35:38.510 --> 00:35:40.949 Milano, the Bills coaching staff, also being 00:35:40.949 --> 00:35:43.570 a little bit cagey about what's going on with 00:35:43.570 --> 00:35:46.329 him. Also a do not practice today. But even even 00:35:46.329 --> 00:35:49.340 with that being said. I mean, this is still advantage 00:35:49.340 --> 00:35:51.619 bills for all the reasons I think that we talked 00:35:51.619 --> 00:35:54.820 about. Yeah. Absolutely. Yeah. And I do think, 00:35:54.880 --> 00:35:56.860 yeah, it's going to be Matt Milano and not Oliver. 00:35:57.099 --> 00:36:01.699 I'm guessing. I think so. Yeah. It does look 00:36:01.699 --> 00:36:03.760 like they'll be able to get Jordan Hancock back, 00:36:03.920 --> 00:36:06.099 which is good when you have, when you're missing 00:36:06.099 --> 00:36:09.219 or limited with Taron Johnson, who might, you 00:36:09.219 --> 00:36:11.280 know, they might bring him back slow if he even 00:36:11.280 --> 00:36:13.480 plays this week or save him for another week 00:36:13.480 --> 00:36:16.119 and let him heal up. Actually, didn't you say 00:36:16.119 --> 00:36:18.780 that he's declared he will play? He said he is 00:36:18.780 --> 00:36:21.360 good to go. The coaching staff has not yet. Yes. 00:36:21.440 --> 00:36:23.820 And that actually has happened in the past with 00:36:23.820 --> 00:36:26.820 Bills players who have then thought not played 00:36:26.820 --> 00:36:28.739 because the coaches were like, no, you won't, 00:36:28.760 --> 00:36:32.699 like sit back down. Yeah, so that's interesting. 00:36:32.940 --> 00:36:35.300 But I do think that, you know, Cam Lewis showed 00:36:35.300 --> 00:36:38.119 up and really had a good game last week against 00:36:38.119 --> 00:36:40.920 the Jets. But it would make me feel a little 00:36:40.920 --> 00:36:42.800 better to have Jordan Hancock, who they would 00:36:42.800 --> 00:36:46.420 cross training at safety as well. around for 00:36:46.420 --> 00:36:52.179 that game. I don't have a lot I'm worried about 00:36:52.179 --> 00:36:54.739 with the Dolphins defense. The line is probably 00:36:54.739 --> 00:36:57.639 the best part because the defensive backfield 00:36:57.639 --> 00:37:01.380 and secondary is really poor. I mean they count 00:37:01.380 --> 00:37:04.260 on Terrell Dodson as like one of their top two 00:37:04.260 --> 00:37:08.369 starting linebackers in nickel. His coverage 00:37:08.369 --> 00:37:10.230 grade is one of the worst in the league and it 00:37:10.230 --> 00:37:12.789 has been forever since the build. I mean, I liked 00:37:12.789 --> 00:37:14.969 him as a special teamer and occasional fill in 00:37:14.969 --> 00:37:18.110 third linebacker on run heavy plays. Cause he 00:37:18.110 --> 00:37:20.829 was great for that and is great for that. Still, 00:37:20.829 --> 00:37:22.710 I think he's one of the better kind of thumper 00:37:22.710 --> 00:37:25.449 old school style linebackers in the division 00:37:25.449 --> 00:37:28.429 at least. Um, but it's, he's just not it for 00:37:28.429 --> 00:37:31.110 coverage. Give me James Cook, Dalton Gagade, 00:37:31.369 --> 00:37:33.789 Dawson Knox, even Jackson Hawes against Terrell 00:37:33.789 --> 00:37:37.969 Dodson. I like it. All day, all day. Yeah. I 00:37:37.969 --> 00:37:40.170 mean, maybe this is the game where they pass 00:37:40.170 --> 00:37:42.409 a little bit more out of that 13 personnel, right? 00:37:42.710 --> 00:37:44.909 Maybe this is where Khalil Shakir gets going. 00:37:45.269 --> 00:37:48.230 But like, if you are the Buffalo Bills and you 00:37:48.230 --> 00:37:51.550 are who you think you are offensively, this is 00:37:51.550 --> 00:37:54.650 a defense you should absolutely roll up. No excuses 00:37:54.650 --> 00:37:58.010 whatsoever. Yeah. Yep. All right, man. Prediction 00:37:58.010 --> 00:38:00.829 sure to go wrong? Yeah, let's hit it. All right. 00:38:00.869 --> 00:38:03.730 Here we go. This is my redemption arc, God. But 00:38:03.730 --> 00:38:08.019 here's the thing. I have picked, I have picked 00:38:08.019 --> 00:38:10.940 conservatively in favor of the Bills, except 00:38:10.940 --> 00:38:12.599 for a weak one where I didn't pick, I picked 00:38:12.599 --> 00:38:15.599 against them. Do I want to break that trend and 00:38:15.599 --> 00:38:19.579 really go like chalk and, and go like full confidence 00:38:19.579 --> 00:38:22.039 in this segment? I don't know. We'll see. All 00:38:22.039 --> 00:38:23.579 right. I'm going to give you the stat. I'm going 00:38:23.579 --> 00:38:25.860 to give you the breakdown here, JJ. Uh, the Bills 00:38:25.860 --> 00:38:28.559 12 and a half point favorites. The over -under 00:38:28.559 --> 00:38:32.380 on this game is creeping up. It is now 49 and 00:38:32.380 --> 00:38:35.590 a half. Not quite the 50 and a half that the 00:38:35.590 --> 00:38:37.610 week one matchup was but still we're expecting 00:38:37.610 --> 00:38:40.389 to shoot out and it is worth keeping in mind 00:38:40.389 --> 00:38:43.210 That the last time the Dolphins were in Buffalo 00:38:43.210 --> 00:38:45.769 It was a shootout type of game where the over 00:38:45.769 --> 00:38:48.949 got to 60 and it took a last last second Tyler 00:38:48.949 --> 00:38:51.449 Bass field goal to put the bills over the top 00:38:51.449 --> 00:38:54.429 So whatever state Miami's in they are not afraid 00:38:54.429 --> 00:38:56.230 to play in Buffalo and they've proven that over 00:38:56.230 --> 00:38:58.469 the past couple years And this is a fair weather 00:38:58.469 --> 00:39:00.949 Buffalo game, which is different than last the 00:39:00.949 --> 00:39:02.429 there was a cold weather last time they played 00:39:02.570 --> 00:39:06.929 Exactly, exactly. So all that's being said JJ 00:39:06.929 --> 00:39:09.670 final score prediction. What do you got bills 00:39:09.670 --> 00:39:15.530 38? dolphins 27 Yeah, you're definitely taking 00:39:15.530 --> 00:39:17.530 the over and you got the bills winning But you 00:39:17.530 --> 00:39:20.429 don't you don't have the bills covering you got 00:39:20.429 --> 00:39:23.170 the Dolphins cover in this game. If my math is 00:39:23.170 --> 00:39:28.550 mathin. All right. Yes, I'm gonna go bills Do 00:39:28.550 --> 00:39:30.869 think the Bills put a 30 burger up. I think what 00:39:30.869 --> 00:39:32.869 is their strength their streak? Is it 10 straight 00:39:32.869 --> 00:39:35.170 regular season game something like that? Yeah, 00:39:35.170 --> 00:39:37.750 sir of at least 30 points. Yeah crazy streak 00:39:37.750 --> 00:39:39.949 Well in the fact that they they had that streak 00:39:39.949 --> 00:39:43.829 last year For like it was like 14 straight games 00:39:43.829 --> 00:39:45.570 or something and then they broke it for like 00:39:45.570 --> 00:39:47.909 one game And then came back on started it again 00:39:47.909 --> 00:39:52.110 This this offense is an absolute wagon, dude 00:39:52.110 --> 00:39:59.340 All right. I'm gonna go Bills 35 Dolphins 17, 00:39:59.340 --> 00:40:04.139 um, taking the, is that the under? No, that's 00:40:04.139 --> 00:40:06.119 the over. I'm taking the over, right? That's 00:40:06.119 --> 00:40:11.619 barely over. Um, but I do think I do, I just 00:40:11.619 --> 00:40:13.500 think the dolphins are not going to have enough 00:40:13.500 --> 00:40:16.679 answers. Like there is nothing to me that suggests 00:40:16.679 --> 00:40:19.340 that what the dolphins can do for, from a game 00:40:19.340 --> 00:40:22.039 planning standpoint. on a short week with all 00:40:22.039 --> 00:40:23.900 of these injuries where you basically get one 00:40:23.900 --> 00:40:25.940 practice. They're not all of a sudden going to 00:40:25.940 --> 00:40:28.280 have new wrinkles and new answers for this bill 00:40:28.280 --> 00:40:30.940 squad that's dominated them. So yeah, I think 00:40:30.940 --> 00:40:33.280 short turnaround bills playing the way they're 00:40:33.280 --> 00:40:35.599 playing at home benefits them. And I think the 00:40:35.599 --> 00:40:39.179 bills win. Yeah. And cover and cover and we take 00:40:39.179 --> 00:40:42.880 the over. Yeah. All right. JJ, what is do you 00:40:42.880 --> 00:40:45.659 have a prop bet? I've got I've got one. I'm very 00:40:45.659 --> 00:40:47.960 excited. I've got one as well. Why don't you 00:40:47.960 --> 00:40:52.989 go first? All right, JJ over under one and a 00:40:52.989 --> 00:40:56.429 half pass catchers Recording a hundred yards 00:40:56.429 --> 00:41:00.590 receiving for the bills. Oh Yes, so you're banking 00:41:00.590 --> 00:41:02.550 on two if you take the over you're saying that 00:41:02.550 --> 00:41:04.730 two people are getting over a hundred yards receiving 00:41:04.730 --> 00:41:06.530 Correct, and I'll give you bonus points if you 00:41:06.530 --> 00:41:09.449 can tell me the last time that happened. Whoa 00:41:09.449 --> 00:41:17.150 Okay Okay, so I'm gonna first thing I'm gonna 00:41:17.150 --> 00:41:22.599 make my My my guess which is that it is under 00:41:22.599 --> 00:41:25.139 I'm gonna say maybe it's one but not two and 00:41:25.139 --> 00:41:30.360 then two is It was it like John Brown and stuff 00:41:30.360 --> 00:41:33.360 on digs in 2020. Oh No, it was a little bit more 00:41:33.360 --> 00:41:36.900 recent than that. Okay So I googled it at first 00:41:36.900 --> 00:41:39.340 and I will say that Google's AI search engine 00:41:39.340 --> 00:41:42.380 sucks because it gave me peerless price and Eric 00:41:42.380 --> 00:41:45.590 molds in 2001 Wow No, it was way more recent 00:41:45.590 --> 00:41:47.849 than that. Way more recent. So I actually went 00:41:47.849 --> 00:41:50.789 to Pro Football Reference and, you know, downloaded 00:41:50.789 --> 00:41:52.429 a couple of their Excel sheets and found them 00:41:52.429 --> 00:41:56.409 myself. 2023, Stefan Diggs and Gabe Davis. Oh, 00:41:56.510 --> 00:41:58.969 Stefan Diggs and Gabe Davis. OK. Yep. Yep. All 00:41:58.969 --> 00:42:00.969 right. Yep. So it happened a couple of years 00:42:00.969 --> 00:42:02.969 ago, but has not happened with this iteration 00:42:02.969 --> 00:42:06.010 of the Joe Brady bills yet. So OK, I am taking 00:42:06.010 --> 00:42:08.409 the over, dude. All right. Again, if it's not 00:42:08.409 --> 00:42:10.989 against the secondary under these circumstances. 00:42:11.539 --> 00:42:14.760 when, you know? Right. And I'm going to say that 00:42:14.760 --> 00:42:17.260 one is Dalton Kincaid, because, you know, every 00:42:17.260 --> 00:42:19.239 time I say Dalton Kincaid is going to have a 00:42:19.239 --> 00:42:22.679 100 -yard receiving game, he totally does. Dalton 00:42:22.679 --> 00:42:26.119 Kincaid and Keanu Coleman are my two picks for 00:42:26.119 --> 00:42:27.900 the past catchers. That's exciting. I hope that's 00:42:27.900 --> 00:42:30.500 true. That would say so much about the Bills' 00:42:30.559 --> 00:42:34.559 last two drafts, if that happened. Sneakily, 00:42:34.599 --> 00:42:39.019 that is why of these two. I would say... Yeah, 00:42:39.019 --> 00:42:43.199 I would say if it does happen, I'm going to pick 00:42:43.199 --> 00:42:49.179 Khalil Shaqir and Dalton Kincaid. Yeah, but I'm 00:42:49.179 --> 00:42:51.000 saying it's not going to happen, but I think 00:42:51.000 --> 00:42:53.719 Kincaid has a huge game here just because neither 00:42:53.719 --> 00:42:56.400 of their linebackers can cover. Ifiatu Malafon 00:42:56.400 --> 00:42:59.340 was injured and already kind of bad at covering 00:42:59.340 --> 00:43:02.679 tight ends, even with all that size and athleticism. 00:43:03.139 --> 00:43:05.980 And so I'm just, if it does happen, I think it's 00:43:05.980 --> 00:43:08.400 Kincaid and Shaqir. Yeah, Javon Holland used 00:43:08.400 --> 00:43:10.900 to give Kincaid and Knox fits, but not on the 00:43:10.900 --> 00:43:13.460 squad anymore. So yeah. All right, man. What's 00:43:13.460 --> 00:43:17.480 your prop? My prop is actually defensive based 00:43:17.480 --> 00:43:22.039 Bill's defense. Two or more or two, well, one 00:43:22.039 --> 00:43:24.579 point five sacks over under over. I mean, you've 00:43:24.579 --> 00:43:26.699 got to you've got to smash the over and I am 00:43:26.699 --> 00:43:31.099 on the record with my with my like meh, you know, 00:43:31.139 --> 00:43:33.340 my ambivalence to this defensive line overall, 00:43:33.739 --> 00:43:37.280 but short week. We know this offensive line for 00:43:37.280 --> 00:43:40.179 Miami is what it is. Tua hanging onto the ball 00:43:40.179 --> 00:43:42.400 long, doesn't have a lot of mobility in that 00:43:42.400 --> 00:43:44.920 pocket. And the Bills have traditionally sacked 00:43:44.920 --> 00:43:47.820 the crap out of Tua. So I want to say over. I 00:43:47.820 --> 00:43:49.400 mean, I wouldn't be surprised if it's like a 00:43:49.400 --> 00:43:51.699 four sack game. Oh, I'm going to put that in 00:43:51.699 --> 00:43:55.340 the notes. I'm you know, I brought it up because 00:43:55.340 --> 00:43:57.400 I wanted to say over and I will say over, I think 00:43:57.400 --> 00:43:59.360 over and I'm going to say a three sack game. 00:43:59.719 --> 00:44:01.940 There you go. All right. I like it. All right, 00:44:02.039 --> 00:44:05.159 man. Well. We have done it. We have done a... 00:44:05.159 --> 00:44:06.760 Oh, you got one more thing. I've got one more. 00:44:06.980 --> 00:44:08.880 You've got one more. I've got one more prop. 00:44:10.199 --> 00:44:14.420 This is a kind of projection. So, over -under, 00:44:15.840 --> 00:44:19.179 four and a half losses before Mike McDaniels 00:44:19.179 --> 00:44:22.400 is canned. I think if they lose this game, they 00:44:22.400 --> 00:44:24.760 leave him in Buffalo. Really? I think it's under. 00:44:24.760 --> 00:44:26.619 Do you really think that that's it? Like, they 00:44:26.619 --> 00:44:30.559 start 0 -3 and he's out? I think if this team... 00:44:31.039 --> 00:44:35.139 especially if they get like boat raced in Buffalo, 00:44:36.000 --> 00:44:37.559 it's like, what do you, what do you think? What 00:44:37.559 --> 00:44:39.340 do you think he's going to turn around? You know 00:44:39.340 --> 00:44:41.860 what I mean? So, I mean, it's like Michigan losing 00:44:41.860 --> 00:44:43.820 to Ohio State so many times, you know, if you're 00:44:43.820 --> 00:44:46.170 the dolphins and at some point, You got to start 00:44:46.170 --> 00:44:47.909 making the culture change that you need to move 00:44:47.909 --> 00:44:50.610 on. OK, so you're taking the under, which would 00:44:50.610 --> 00:44:52.849 be three losses. I'm taking the under if they 00:44:52.849 --> 00:44:55.110 get if they get absolutely if they get the doors 00:44:55.110 --> 00:44:57.570 blown off of them on Thursday night, I think 00:44:57.570 --> 00:45:00.550 they leave McDaniel and Buffalo. If they're competitive, 00:45:00.610 --> 00:45:04.070 he buys himself another week. OK, yeah, I'm saying 00:45:04.070 --> 00:45:06.170 over. I think that, you know, I don't recall 00:45:06.170 --> 00:45:07.969 just off the top of my head when their bye week 00:45:07.969 --> 00:45:09.650 is, but I think it's the kind of thing that they 00:45:09.650 --> 00:45:12.690 would change at the bye if he doesn't have at 00:45:12.690 --> 00:45:16.909 least a 500 record by then. Yeah, yeah, well, 00:45:16.949 --> 00:45:19.369 we'll see man. All right got anything else for 00:45:19.369 --> 00:45:22.789 us. Nope All right, man. We did it We did the 00:45:22.789 --> 00:45:25.809 Jets post game did our pregame for Finn's week 00:45:25.809 --> 00:45:28.170 and now we just get to enjoy Enjoy some bills 00:45:28.170 --> 00:45:31.050 football earlier than usual on Thursday for all 00:45:31.050 --> 00:45:33.369 of you listening at home as always Thank you 00:45:33.369 --> 00:45:35.050 like share and subscribe wherever you get your 00:45:35.050 --> 00:45:37.489 pods. This one is going up on YouTube We are 00:45:37.489 --> 00:45:40.170 also on Apple Spotify wherever else you get your 00:45:40.170 --> 00:45:43.070 podcasts and as always go bills go bills