All right, welcome back to the Buffalo Bread podcast.
We have a divisional round coming up this Sunday, and it's the Sunday night game, the
premier time slot for the NFL.
Bills versus Baltimore Ravens in Orchard Park.
The weather so far looks to be a real field temperature of negative five or negative six,
which would seem to favor the Bills.
It's got everybody up in anxiety land.
Where are you living these days, Dan?
The Bills are in the playoffs, JJ, so I live permanently in the land of anxiety with much
many more of my nervous mafia as we like to call ourselves.
But I mean, listen, as a Bills fan, of course, I'm nervous, but also crazily excited for
the opportunity to watch what is going to be hopefully a great game between two great
teams.
And as a football fan, dude, it doesn't get any better than this.
Freezing cold weather in Buffalo, the two presumptive MVP front runners going head to
head in a meaningful postseason game for the right to challenge.
It probably the chiefs, but the Texans love something to say about that.
I mean, one step away for both of these teams from reaching the AFC championship and then
another game from the Super Bowl.
I mean, JJ, the stakes couldn't be higher.
The players on the field couldn't be better.
And anxiety and rooting interests aside, it's a great weekend to be a football fan,
for sure.
Absolutely.
They also, both teams are on the precipice of earning a dubious statistical, historical
declaration, which is the most wins in seven seasons without reaching the Super Bowl.
But they're like one and two in that stat right now, like 83 wins, 82 wins, because neither
team is gone and they've all both been juggernauts in the AFC and they've not gotten to the big
game and the loser of this game will extend that streak and the winner may be able to
break it by eventually, you know, getting past the AFC championship game or both will,
you know, remain because neither of them makes it again this year and they'll continue building
up that number past 80 wins.
Oh, God, one.
Listen, obviously, I don't want the bills to be factored into that little, little slice
of terrible history, you know what I mean?
But it is JJ.
That's just one of the one of these statistical and narrative, I think, conjoining factors
for these two teams heading into the weekend.
There is that conversation.
There is the conversation about Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, not just being the two presumptive
front runners for the MVP, but how tied together they are in history with their draft status.
The two QBs that were least coveted in their draft year now kind of inarguably being the
two best QBs to come out of that draft class that they were in.
There is the narrative around playoff success, you know, the Buffalo Bills.
This would be the fourth straight year they would be knocked out in the divisional round,
should they lose.
And then for the Baltimore Ravens, should they lose?
It's well, is Lamar really the guy that's going to get you over the hump?
There's all of these parallel narratives with these two teams that make this game just so
rich and so interesting, not just from the X's and O's standpoint, but just from a fan
chatting it up around the water cooler standpoint.
There's so much fun stuff to unpack with this game.
I kind of wish we had seven hours to go over it, but we're both dads.
We both have sick kids at home.
I don't think we've got the energy or the stamina to go seven hours.
So where do you want to get into it?
Do you want to start with some of the narrative stuff or do you want to get right into the
X's and O's, my friends?
Well first, I'll make a correction to your stat package.
My son has been healthy since January 6th for the first time since August 4th.
Yeah.
For the first time in over four months, he is like totally himself with no issues, no
crud.
I'm glad to hear it.
He's probably going to be blown up literally any day because he just returned to daycare,
but I can't say I have a lot of sleep because he's still 13 months old, but I will say
that he's not sick.
So that's good.
I'm sorry your kids are and that's not, that's the worst.
All good, man.
It comes to being in dadland.
It does.
Where I want to start is actually a very brief review of the, Bill's played a game this past
weekend.
They did.
They played against the Broncos.
They played a half.
They played a half against the Broncos.
They were sort of sleepwalking through the first half, which we've seen in so many Bill's
games and really cannot happen this upcoming weekend, of course.
But they, yeah, they did more like what I had said they would do to a rookie quarterback
and the defense completely stifled the Broncos in the second half and in really every drive
after the first one, the defense was standing up and shutting them down.
And then Josh Allen, Josh Allen and James Cook James Cooked.
And it was a, you know, resounding victory.
I think everybody who I know who was at the game said it was basically a party from like
the start of the third quarter on.
I don't know if I like your tone about what, how you said what I predicted would happen.
Yes.
All right.
You were very right.
I was very wrong.
And I was, you thought it was going to be like a very tough last minute field goal type
game.
I thought like 27-21 felt pretty realistic.
But I think we saw this with some of the AFC, the other AFC West team that was in the playoffs
and the LA Chargers, like the Denver Broncos, they didn't play the toughest schedule in
the world and neither did the Chargers.
The Chargers actually played the least hard schedule this season and the Broncos were
not much better.
And while they had a couple of flash moments that would make you think this squad could
be a problem.
I mean, JJ exposed as the word that comes to mind, especially for what the Buffalo
Bills offense did to that vaunted Denver Broncos defense in the second half.
I mean, it was a lot like the strategy they rolled out last year against the Cowboys
where it was on that defensive line for Denver, very, very light, not a lot of big bodied guys.
And Sean McDermott and Joe Brady were like, we're going to throw as many big bodied humans
as possible against your tinier humans.
You're at more athletic, but tinier humans.
And we just think our size is going to win.
And they were right.
I mean, from the second half on, it was as dominating a win is physically dominating
a win as the Bills have had.
I mean, we can unpack the ridiculous stats, the time of possession disparity, 41 minutes
to 19 minutes in favor of the Bills.
We can unpack the rushing yard disparity, 200 yards to, I think it was only 87 yards
for the Broncos.
And what stuck out to me, JJ, was how well the Bills did defensively in playing, turning
their, what had been weaknesses into strengths.
This is a squad in Buffalo.
They're just struggled against mobile QBs.
And when it came to allowing QBs to roll out on pass plays, the Buffalo Bills heading
into that game were 31st in defensive efficiency.
But every time Bo Nicks rolled out, they had a plan for it.
They didn't let him get too many, extend too many drives with his legs.
And when he rolled out, they took away his second reaction throws.
The screen game, the quick game for Denver, the Buffalo Bills 32nd in efficiency this
year when defending the screen game, absolutely shut that down.
When they went to Mims, when they went to a running back, it didn't matter.
Buffalo was prepared for what Denver wanted to do.
And what has been a permissive Buffalo Bills defense that clearly wants you to run and
wants you to take the short area yardage, they were not allowing that save for that
first drive in the game.
This was, we've talked about how this Buffalo Bills defense JJ has been multiple all year
and as a result, a little bit higher variance.
It was really nice, especially heading into the Baltimore game to see them handle a mobile
QB and handle a quick game and limit yards after catch the way that they did.
It's three things the Bills have not done well defensively this season.
And I will say too, that just the offensive line for the Broncos has not been good at
past, or at rush blocking, run blocking this year.
And that is a recipe for destruction at the hands of the Bills.
If you're not a strong running team and your strength of your offense is passing it all
over the yard, that is a opportunity that Sean McDermott can absolutely shut you down.
If the Bills are not afraid of your running attack, you're not going to get anywhere.
They'll drop seven, drop eight into coverage.
His zone schemes and his mixed matched man zone schemes are so complex.
And more importantly, the players who run them are so elite at their discipline in the
scheme that the windows that you think you're going to have are rarely there, especially
when it comes to the linebacker.
When Terrell Bernard and Matt Milano are in coverage, you're not going to be able to hit
the shots you're going to hit against probably 80% of linebackers in the league, because
those two are so excellent at just a good feel for where they need to be in their zone,
their landmarks, who's entering, who's leaving, who they need to pass off.
And that, I think we saw that explicitly throughout the game was that Bonix was looking for answers
and they were never there.
And so when the only thing you're bringing is your kind of passing attack and your rushing
attack is anemic, that ain't it for the Bills are going to absolutely win that game.
Absolutely.
I will say, like, if you're looking for a blemish or like a future concerned to point
to, while Bonix did not play like a rookie in that game, Troy Franklin did.
And there were moments where he absolutely had Rizul Douglas dead to rights.
He had Christian Benford dead to rights a couple of times on some middle of field crossing
routes.
And he just dropped really good passes from Bonix.
A better wide receiver core may have taken advantage of some of those matchups.
And that was one of the things I was worried about for the Bills headed into this game
was the size, speed disparity for this wide receiver core.
I think Quirtland Sutton had a great game and Benford for maybe the second or third
time this season really struggled to lock him down.
Like he had his moments of weakness against Garrett Wilson, too, in that first Jets game
for sure.
Benford has been locked down all season, but really struggled with Sutton in a lot of ways.
If there was even a competent number two to Sutton on that team, the result may have been
a little bit closer.
Not, I think, enough to sway things in favor of the Broncos, but that could have been a
much closer game.
And I think with Bateman and Flowers, potentially Flowers, who hasn't practiced yet for the
Ravens as we were recording this pod heading into this weekend, that may be a bigger test
than this Broncos wide receiver unit was for this DB core.
But JJ, outside of that, defense looked good to me.
And Milano, he found that third gear that we are so used to seeing him, particularly
sideline to sideline, chasing down running backs in the run defense game.
So a lot to be hopeful for as the Bills head into this epic divisional matchup against
the Ravens.
And it is epic.
And I think we can probably get to it at this point, because I mean, that's what there
is to say about the Broncos game.
It was that the Bills defense was overmatched from the first, from the second series on
against a rookie quarterback, a young offense that didn't have an established rushing attack
that struggled to do what it likes to do with the pass.
And then, you know, on the Bills offense, it was just dominating trans performance.
They had an incredibly variable rushing attack.
It was gap.
It was zone.
James Cook had some of the best vision I've seen from him all season.
And hopefully that continues into this round of the playoffs, because he was playing like
a man possessed.
He was finding space and gaps in the defense that wouldn't be there for most running backs.
It was an excellent performance by James Cook.
So Mr. 16 touchdown, James Cook was getting it done.
Absolutely.
We love it when Cook cooks and he absolutely did in this game.
And Brady stuck with the run game, even as Josh was settling in, missing a couple of
throws in the first half.
Dude, lots of good things all the way around for the Buffalo Bills as they head into this
matchup against the Ravens.
So JJ, listen, man, lots of meat on this bone.
Where do you want to start with this game?
Do you want to talk a little bit about some of the narrative stuff?
Do you want to talk X's and O's?
How do you want to hit this?
I want to talk a little bit X's and O's just from one standpoint, because I think on the
offensive side, the Ravens offense, the Bills offense, they both have a lot of answers.
They both have a lot of things that they're excellent at.
From the Bills defense against this, against Lamar Jackson, Travis Henry, I don't think
Zay Flowers is going to play.
I think that he's a scratch for this game.
I think that need imagery is worse than they've been putting on in the media.
I think wild.
Yeah.
I think that Harbaugh is by saying, oh, he could play even if he doesn't practice is
trying to get the Bills to prepare for that through practice when there's no intention
for him to play.
I think because if you're projecting already throughout the week that there's no way he's
going to practice as the coach, you're probably already having an answer for the weekend as
well.
That's wild to think about how he got hurt too.
In a meaningless game at the end of the season.
In a meaningless nothing game at the end of the season that didn't have no bearing on
your playoff chances or seeding.
Stat padding basically at the end of the season for your guys to get their contract incentives
and then left them out here, left them out there way too long, way too long.
And it sucks to see I really like Zay Flowers.
Me too.
I thought he was great coming out of the draft.
One of the players that I was targeting every time I was doing a kind of a mock leading
up to that draft too.
We'd always figure out a way to mock draft Zay Flowers.
Exactly.
Squeeze him in there somewhere.
He's just a great player and it would, from a fan fandom aside, it sucks to not see a
great football player get his moment in this run.
So but I think that that's important.
It's important to acknowledge though the absence that he would cause by not being there.
He's their number one targeted and number one receiving arts, number one receptions
receiver and it changes the dynamic of the offense for them.
But they're going to give it to Derek Henry.
Exactly.
Well, that's exactly that's the one point I want to make schematically about the bill's
defense is we've said for years on this pod with McDermott, with Frazier, not with
Babbage, the defense is the defense.
You said something about the Broncos game and the defense being variable that I appreciate
and hope for in this game against the Ravens.
We saw the bills employ three linebackers a couple of times this season when they were
up against heavy personnel.
We also saw the bills do some mirror match QB spy stuff against Mahomes, which they may
need to employ, especially on third, you know, long and late downs by taking a defensive
lineman off the field doing a three man rush, adding coverage, adding spy.
So all of those things, if they're not variable, if they play the defense is the defense, they're
absolutely going to get cooked for 300 rushing yards and lose this game, I guarantee it.
If we see Taryn Johnson on the field with four down defensive linemen, including AJ
Epinezza, and two linebackers and then four DBs in the back.
And the in a set where the Ravens have six offensive linemen and Patrick Ricard in front
of Derek Henry, I will absolutely I'm not going to throw anything at my TV because it
was expensive and I don't got that kind of scratch to replace it.
But I will be so incensed and furious that I can't even I can't even Dan.
So all right, I want to say two things.
I am confident that Babbage and McDermott are going to scheme something up.
That's not going to, I think, stop this rushing attack.
But how many times have we seen, and I think most recently to last season, wasn't I think
it was last season, the Miami Dolphins 70 point game against Denver, the very next game,
heading into Buffalo, divisional matchup, media narrative is no one can stop this offense.
Would admit what's McDermott do?
He stops that offense, right?
We have seen this time and time again in the in the in the their most recent matchup in
the COVID year against the Ravens.
How are you going to stop Lamar?
Right?
Lamar is having a great year.
How are you going to stop Lamar?
They stop Lamar, right?
Granted, whether played a little bit of factor as did Terran Johnson at the end of that game.
But um, yeah, I mean, we've seen McDermott is a defensive mind rise to the occasion more
than once.
He has been burned by Derek Henry multiple times, multiple times throughout his career,
but he has also had several games where he's done a good job of bottling up Derek Henry
as well.
I think if there is anybody left in the playoffs outside of Steve's Bagnola, it is Sean McDermott
that's going to come up with a way to figure out how to at least slow this offense down.
And I think part of that is going to be complimentary football.
I am drinking the Kool-Aid on complimentary football, but we saw that take off here.
I got to see if you're bald or is this Sean McDermott?
Sean McDermott, did you sneak on my podcast?
But dude, we saw it in the Denver game and we saw it to some extent last year in the
divisional round against Kansas City, where the game plan was clearly just to great on
the opposing teams defense in the run game, dominate time of possession, which the bills
have not been good at this season because the defense can't get off the field on third
down.
So the offense is getting far fewer opportunities than it got last year.
It's running on average about 15 less plays per game than it did last season.
That's a lot.
That's a series.
That's a series or two.
Right?
So I think the game plan offensively is going to be not keep the defense off the field necessarily,
but let's great.
Let's dominate time of possession and then let's force Lamar Jackson, Derek Henry and
Todd Munkin, their offensive coordinator and play caller, into condensed chunks of time
where the game script, which we know means so much to the bills, is in our favor and
it takes them out of their first few scripted plays.
I think that's going to be the recipe for it.
And I think in a condensed window, in a condensed window, I do think this Buffalo Bill's defense
can find a way to get a couple of stops against this Ravens offense enough to get the ball
back to Josh and let our offense do our thing.
I think that's right.
I think that the thing that the greatest weapon the defense has had all season long is game
script because when the pressure is on the opponent, that's all of those games we've
seen that snowballed out of control for the bill's opponents and resulted in huge landslide
wins.
It's when the bills get up a little early, when the myth of Josh Allen gets in the offensive
coordinator's head for the opposition and when the pass rush can pin its ears back because
that's the only time it makes an impact.
When the pass rush has to play the run through to the quarterback, they're completely ineffective
and they will have to play the run through to the quarterback until they get in a position
where they know for sure Lamar is dropping back to pass.
And that's not going to happen until the bills have two scores on the board ahead of the
Ravens.
And that's the part that scares me the most about this game is that for the defense to
be at its most effective, for the defense to start generating turnovers and negative
plays, they need to get ahead on this.
They need the offense to score and score often.
And this Ravens defense number one overall in the league in stopping the run, their
pass defense is 31st, but that's not accurate.
I think that stat is a little bit flawed because it's just about yards and they are much better
than that and have been much better over the past eight weeks.
Correct.
Yep.
Absolutely.
And so in order for game script to go the way that it goes, the offense has to find its
mojo, right?
And dude, they are, they're up against it for a couple of reasons.
And you mentioned, I think to me the biggest one, this is one of the few teams in the league
that has successfully in the Baltimore Ravens shut down the run.
They're allowing the least amount of rushing yards per game.
They're allowing the least amount of yards per attempt.
They've allowed the least amount of 10 of 10 or more yards per 10 or more individual
rushes, rushes of 10 or more yards in the league.
And dude, they're doing it with with light boxes for the most part, right?
They're not stacking their boxes.
They are only playing light boxes about 43% of the time.
It's dude, it's it is, it's a tall task for, for these Buffalo Bills and the offense to
try to overcome.
Well, I think that the thing that makes their defense, their defensive front so dangerous
against the run is the same thing that makes them a little bit liable in the past.
They have some really beefy defensive linemen and then they've got some thicker bodied linebackers
at the second level who are excellent gap fill linebackers, but can sometimes struggle in
coverage, especially with more athletic tight ends with slot receivers and those sorts of
things.
And so that situation creates a wonderful advantage for them against the run and a little
bit of liability against the pass.
But a lot of the liability is covered up by Harbaugh, just like McDermott having these
players absolutely disciplined in their assignments, playing assignment sound football.
The thing that watching all 22 footage of several Ravens games.
I watched the Eagles Ravens game, which actually scared me more about the Eagles than the Ravens
where they lost to the Eagles.
I watched, of course, both Pittsburgh games.
Pittsburgh is just completely outmatched when they play against this team.
Terrible.
The game that Pittsburgh won earlier in the season was pretty much a complete fluke.
Watching that back, there was a handful of plays that just bounced the wrong way for
the Ravens that otherwise could have blown the game wide open.
So you know, watching all that, this Ravens front, they play so gap sound that they're
probably the only team in the league that I think could stop Lamar Jackson and Derek
Henry.
Right.
Because the beef they have and how disciplined they are in holding their gaps, they don't
get moved off their spots because that's the biggest thing that Ravens do with their
read option.
They essentially get everybody moving in one direction and then Lamar scoots out the other
side when nobody's looking or the players who stayed frozen trying to protect against
Lamar scraping around the outside or bootlegging are out of position when Derek Henry literally
runs them over.
Yeah, man.
And, you know, it means that if the bills can't and cannot figure out an answer for
this run defense, they're going to have to look to the past.
And to your point, the secondary for Baltimore while they were eating up in the first part
of the season, the second half of the season, they've been so much better at limiting explosive
plays, so much better at yards per game.
And their efficiency metrics over the last eight weeks in the past game are in the top
five pretty regularly.
No matter which passing metric you want to look at.
And dude, this is a team that still gets pressure on the QB with all of that being said.
And they have one of the lowest Blitz rates in the league too.
Them and the Bills are in a virtual tie for the fifth lowest Blitz rate in the league.
But the key difference with these Baltimore Ravens, they're top five, number five in sack
percentage.
They get home to the opposing QB.
They don't have to blitz, which means they don't have to leave their DBs vulnerable in
coverage.
They have a lot of ways they can defend the pass and the run.
And it's going to be interesting to see what the Buffalo Bills do to mitigate some of that.
May I offer under center play action, which I don't think the Bills will go to.
And the only reason being is because I don't think in the scenario, Josh or Brady are going
to be too comfortable with Josh's back to the line of scrimmage until they have a really
good feel for how they're handling this Baltimore Ravens pass rush.
Yeah, I think under center play action is a wonderful solution against this type of defense,
specifically the second level, specifically the linebackers in putting them in conflict.
But you're absolutely right until the Bills until the Bills offensive line, specifically
David Edwards, Spencer Brown, maybe a little bit of Cyrus Torrance until they prove that
they can win one on one matchups against their individual blocking assignments.
I don't think you're going to see Josh Allen turn his back.
I mean, away coming off the edge is has like some of the quickest and strongest pass rush
moves I've seen.
And I could definitely see Spencer Brown struggling with some of that.
Yeah, I mean, listen, it's and it's so hard to to continually pick on Spencer Brown because
he's been great this year.
He's been awesome.
And there's an argument that you can make that the best tackle tandem in the league
is Spencer Brown and Deon Dawkins for sure.
He's had a great year, right?
But I think back to that first game in particular and granted, lots has changed.
There's been a lot of growth, but even a Kyle van Noy, going off the edge one on one against
Spencer Brown, Van Noy ate his lunch that game.
Like he won.
He got I think Van Noy generated pressure on like 15 percent of his past rushes and
that number jumped to 27 percent, which is astronomical when he was again one on one
with Spencer Brown, right?
Yeah, yeah, it's so but enter in the heavy set, the jumbo set with Alec Anderson, right?
We know the bills can throw out of that.
We know they can run pretty successfully out of that.
And one of the things that I think, and this was just an eyeball thing, the defensive line
for Baltimore, they just look bigger than our dudes.
But you put in an Alec Anderson, you run a little bit more heavy sets and you grind it
out.
It's a great way to mitigate what is an otherwise aggressive pass rush.
Well, and I even think that kind of the bootleg play action stretch run pass out of heavy
set could be an absolute Ravens killer, because if you establish early on that you're going
to run out of that heavy set and they're geeking themselves up to stop the run and stop James
Cook, that is a recipe for Dalton can Kate against one of those overmatched linebackers,
you know, or Dawson's leak, one of our favorite plays in order to make, you know, frontside
or backside bootleg result in, you know, some positive yards.
Although in the first game, do you remember there was a naked boot play action that Marlin
Humphrey literally shot directly in on?
And did he get a sack or did he just force a quick throw from Josh?
I think you got a sack.
I think you put him.
He put him on the ground.
Josh was sacked three times in that game.
And dude, this is this is the thing.
Baltimore legitimately defends mobile QBs, maybe the best in the league like this against
it every week.
I mean, you joked about it earlier, but it's just true.
The matchup for the bills offense to defense is worse than it was early in the season because
the Ravens have, I think solidified one of the few weaknesses they had on this defense.
And that was the deep ball and that were long to intermediate shots downfield.
Now that they've solidified that, they've really fine tuned where they're at at every
level of this defense.
And there's just so much stuff that the bills like to go to in their bag of tricks offensively.
This might be the first time this year where I think our defense may have some surprising
answers for the Ravens offense.
And the defense may have more answers for their matchup than the offense does.
Because again, our wide receivers, they're not big separation guys either.
And the Baltimore Ravens, it just so happens are the third best team in allowing limited
separation to opposing wide outs.
They allow below the league average at 3.2 yards average of separation to the nearest
pass catcher.
I mean, everything you would look for this both of those offense to do in order to to
gain leverage or gain an advantage against this Baltimore Ravens defense, they have either
gotten better at or they have been wire to wire this season, the best team in the league
at it.
Brady listen, man, Brady is in his bag.
He is at the peak of his powers right now.
If there is a dude that can figure it out, it's him.
But I actually think we're sleeping on the defensive side of the ball.
I think the defense is going to have more to say on the outcome of this game than we're
giving it credit for.
And I think that's fair.
I think that that's going to I think the how the bill's defense is able to stand up against
Lamar and Derek Henry.
That's the answer for whether or not the bills win this game.
You know what I mean?
Like, I think that that's more of an answer than what kind of MVP performance Josh Allen
puts on because I think that if the defense gets enough stops on third down, the bills
will win.
And that's just it, right?
Like they'll find a way to move, you know, propagate the ball down the field and then
get it in either with kicks or with touchdowns.
Even though the Ravens are one of the best red zone defenses in the league as well, they're
like, they're the best at everything.
So this is the number one, number one team and overall DV away, by the way, in case
you guys haven't figured it out based on what we're talking about.
But no, it's a it's an imposing matchup for the bills, right?
Yeah, go ahead.
I'll just say this one thing based on all that I've said and all that we've looked
at because we're both stat nerds and I grind the film and I look at it.
If the bills are able to pull this one out and beat the Ravens, they have to make it
to the Super Bowl because they will have beaten probably the best team left in the whole
field.
I would agree.
I would agree with that.
God, wouldn't that be awesome too?
Like I can't even let my head go there, though.
But yeah, I mean, listen, there's usually a lot of media hyperbole around these hyperbole
around these games.
And a lot of folks are saying, oh, well, whoever wins this is probably going to represent the
AFC and the Super Bowl.
And listen, Houston and more so Kansas City will absolutely have something to say about
that.
It's no stronger narrative to work in your favor than no one believes in us.
So if people are writing off KC in particular at this early stage of the playoffs as a result
of this game, big mistake, big mistake, my friend, just given their track record and
their pedigree.
But dude, if one of these teams in this matchup knock each other off, it feels like these
are the two best teams in the field going against each other like it just does.
When you look at it from every angle, every statistical measure, every every cellulite
piece of film, right?
Like yes, it just feels like these are the two best teams.
You're correct.
The two best teams with the two MVP candidates who of course don't play against each other.
But I'm just going to say this market on the pod.
Lamar Jackson is your 2024 season MVP.
There's never been an MVP voted by the same group of people basically that vote for the
AP All Pros.
There's never been an MVP quarterback chosen who wasn't also the first team All Pro quarterback
and that's Lamar Jackson.
And so I just feel like it's done.
Yeah.
I mean, if and when that happens, we can unpack it.
I want to get ahead of because I'll be pissed at that moment and I'll probably say stuff
and put stuff on the internet that I'll regret.
But I will say like Lamar said, a hell of a season.
And I wish so much of my social media feeds have been about the Josh versus Lamar MVP
debate and each side tearing the other guy down, like finding these imperceptibly small
differentiators to try to make their case seem airtight.
And the reality is, is both of these guys in wildly different circumstances performed
above and beyond expectations.
They gave us they gave us two of the best quarterbacked seasons of football, perhaps
at least in the amount of time I have been a viewer of football and perhaps statistically
an NFL history.
And at a time where there's a lot of like exciting QB prospects, but not a lot of great
QB play.
That is something is as NFL fans, we should be cherishing and not tearing down based on
the jersey that we want to wear and the team we want to root for.
So regardless of who wins, both of these guys gave us something very, very special this
season.
And it's something that is football fans we should really cherish because things like
this don't happen often.
And we didn't even talk about Joe Burrow and the season he had.
Well said.
The fact that we have so many excellent quarterbacks to watch in the AFC is yes annoying because
we want Josh Allen to win the Super Bowl every year, but it is as a sports fan really special.
It's really cool.
I mean, listen, he's like, what is he?
He's like a Lajuan.
My home's is Jordan.
Yeah.
Like Lamar's Barkley.
Like every sport has this generation.
Yeah.
Exactly.
Right.
So yeah, it's it's it's cool.
It's it's cool to be a fan.
Well, and on top of that, and just kind of extend it beyond the quarterbacks to also be
kind of in our kind of prime football watching years to see the likes of Derek Henry, Saquon
Barkley, even like players like Joe Mixon, Justin Jefferson, you know, like there are
some absolute luminaries in the sport right now who were watching in within the middle
of their Hall of Fame campaigns.
Exactly.
And I would add to that too.
In an era where offensive line play has taken an absolute nosedive in this matchup
that we have on Sunday, arguably two of the best offensive lines in the league, particularly
in the run game.
And they do both do it in such different ways.
Like we haven't really talked about about how fancy the Ravens run game is.
Right.
It's very fancy.
It's very bougie, very bougie.
And then the Buffalo Bills, which is just like, I know they do a whole bunch of different
stuff and they're very multiple in the run game.
But like their identity has really become we're going to out physical you, whereas the Ravens
are going to outsmart you, right?
And it's just it's a fascinating juxtaposition of schemes and to watch it play out like again,
so much about this game to be excited about anxiety levels aside, rooting interests aside.
There's a lot of good stuff, a lot of good stuff that folks are going to see on Sunday.
As a young man, as a teenager, I used to play a variation of basketball that my friends
and I aptly named Barnball.
And it basically was a highly physical version of basketball.
It was almost tackle basketball.
Like you could, there you could almost get, there was no penalties, no fouls, no, there
was like literally nothing that was kind of off limits.
That is how the Buffalo Bills run the football.
Where I like.
Yeah, whereas it's just very much like whoever the biggest, strongest bully is, is going
to do the damage.
And then like use it's so fancy.
The Baltimore Ravens, their scheme is about misdirection.
And it's like watching it's like watching David Blaine is their offensive, you know,
design, because you just like, I don't understand how this is happening.
What is happening right now?
How does he have my card?
Where did he pull that from?
Watching the bills is like your uncle Dave doing close in magic after a 30 rack of natty
Isis, you know, like where it's like, you don't know.
There's a quarter.
Like drops it as he goes, but like somehow it's still endearing.
Like that's not to say it's bad, but it's different and it's very much like right in
your face.
Exactly, you know exactly what's going on.
Nothing to be amazed or wowed by it's just it's going to bully you.
So yeah, that's my summary of these rushing attacks.
It's going to be incredible.
It's going to be incredible, man.
I'm so afraid.
It's going to be okay.
I don't want to do a pot if they lose in the division around again.
Dude, we have to.
This is what we signed up for.
But I mean, listen, we have talked about we've talked at length about why this Baltimore
Ravens offense is a tough matchup for the the bill's defense.
And we've talked vice versa about the other way too.
JJ, if the bills come out on top in this game to you, what three things would you expect
to happen in order to be like, oh yeah, the bills won that game?
What three things do you think need to happen?
Wow, on the spot.
One, bills win or win the turnover battle plus something even plus one in the turnover
battle.
They get an extra set.
They get an extra drive for Josh Allen.
Two, Derek Henry under 100 yards rushing.
And then three, Josh Allen completes passes to more than seven people.
Seven or more people.
That's been a bellwether statistic of our yeah, of our pod.
It absolutely has.
Yeah.
I'll give you my three.
And I just thought of them on the spot.
James Cook, 20 plus touches.
I think if James Cook is a focal point for this, this Buffalo Bill's offense, that gives
them an answer to what is otherwise an overwhelming Baltimore Ravens defense.
And those touches don't JJ necessarily need to be in the in the run game.
The bills running backs this season lead the league in receptions that have been for 10
yards or more this season, more than any other team in the league.
And out of all of the, all of the things that the Baltimore Ravens defense does well, defending
running backs leaking out from the backfield is one of the things they have struggled with
the most this season, their middle of the pack when it comes to defensive efficiency
and defending running backs on those particular plays.
So if you're the Buffalo Bills and you're running this, these four by one sets, right?
And you've got a running back in the backfield, you are creating a lot of confusion for this
Baltimore Ravens defense.
So for me, it is James Cook, 20 or more, 20 or more touches.
And again, not all in the run game.
Okay.
Number two, Ty Johnson has a touchdown.
If Ty Johnson has a touchdown, many of his touchdowns have come off of explosives in
the passing game, right?
If Ty Johnson has a touchdown, that tells me that the Bills are cooking at a multitude
of levels and that Josh is seeing the field in a way that he needs to where all of his
options are very clear to him.
And then number three, the Buffalo Bills defense, Sax Lamar Jackson, three or more times.
Yes.
I think, so this is something the Bills have actually had success with, not in the beginning
of the season, not in the first matchup.
But the Bills have had success in the past getting and generating pressure on Lamar Jackson.
Now this season, teams are blitzing the hell out of Lamar out of pure desperation.
I don't think the Bills are going to do that.
But listen, man, we didn't have Bernard in that first game.
We didn't have Milano in that first game.
We didn't have Taryn Johnson in that first game.
I do think there is a world where Milano is basically the dedicated Lamar Jackson guy.
And as a result, he's just getting penetration on some pure pass rush.
So God, I hope so.
Well, I'll say I'll say this about, you know, I thought that that's a good that's a good
section.
It's good to kind of get our thoughts on board of what we think the most critical pieces
are.
The Bills defense has to have gap discipline like the Ravens rush defense does to counter
their read option plays.
You just got it.
You just got to know what your assignment is and stick to it and not like lose yourself
to the eye candy.
And then the other thing that I noticed, especially in the multiple games against the Steelers,
the end line defenders.
TJ Watt was doing this the whole game in the wild card round.
He was crashing on Derek Henry every snap.
And it's enough so much that it looked like that was his instruction.
Go for Derek Henry every every snap.
He's your guy.
Let everyone's assignment.
Yeah.
Let everybody else worry about Lamar.
The problem was the end line defenders who were the worry about a Lamar guys were eating
the fake to Derek Henry.
And so you have, you know, her big and TJ Watt both tackling an empty handed Derek Henry
while Lamar runs for 40 yards.
So I think that in order to play this game the right way, whomever the end line defenders
are for the Bills need to be edge priority one, crash priority two, even if you absolutely
believe Derek Henry is getting that ball, you do not let an empty handed Lamar Jackson
break contain on you.
You just can't because that's every team this this year has has fallen to the same thing,
which is read option.
End line defender thinks the handoff has gone to Derek Henry and literally runs right past
the face of Lamar Jackson who's rushing the ball around the edge.
So that's one.
And then two is for lineup.
I like a four, three, four kind of smooth Dequan Oliver, Oliver and Russo frontline
with three linebackers Milano Bernard and Williams and Cole Bishop as a box safety.
And then you you have a single high safety and wrap and let Doug listen.
Benford locked down the outside receivers.
What do you think of that?
I I mean, I think it's great.
I don't know.
I don't know that they're going to do that.
I don't think they will.
I don't think they're going to run three linebackers and a box safety.
But I think that would be effective about shutting down the run game.
It would be.
But man, it would come in a huge expense.
Oh, yeah.
The risk would be massive that somebody's got Bateman, especially like Bateman, who's
tall, long, rangy and fast is going to get behind you.
Well, and we've seen the bills get burned when they have and the very future times they've
had to sell out to stop the run.
We saw that.
I mean, listen, we saw that notably in the LA game, right?
Against the Rams where they just had to sell out to keep Kyron Williams contained and Nakuha
and Cup just did damage once they got behind our guys.
I mean, this is the thing.
We have great swarming ability on this defense, but we do not have great team speed outside
of I would say Bishop and Kyra Elam, right?
So a lot of the stuff that we've been doing with rotating and disguising coverage has
been effective.
But when it comes to stopping the run because we have less tools in our tool belt, it comes
at a cost like this is either or type of defense, like it's either going to stop the
run or it's either going to stop the pass.
And I think in this game, the bills are going to have to choose at the right time situationally,
which again, I think Babbage and McDermott can do it.
I would be surprised if Derek Henry rushed for 200 yards of this game, right?
Or 198 yards in this game or whatever he did in the first week.
I'd be shocked.
So I do think the bills are going to have some answers, but scheme only goes so far.
And I do think there's going to be those either or propositions depending on game script that
the Ravens are going to leverage properly.
Like they're too good not to find themselves in those situations too.
So it's going to be interesting, man.
Sure, it will be.
Are you do you have any do you buy into any of the Lamar Jackson Derek Henry have never
played a game less than 22 degrees stuff?
I think it's I think it's dumb.
They play in Baltimore.
Baltimore is cold.
It's a cold weather city.
They play outdoors like Derek Henry.
I get was in Tennessee before this and played his ball in Alabama.
That that dude is built for any kind of weather.
I think it's nuts.
Like Lamar is three and one.
I think in sub 20 degree weather, Josh is nine and one, but like they're going to be
fine.
They're going to be fine.
It's I'm not worried about those two.
That's fair.
And then also, do you have any commentary on the Buffalo bills signing the former Baltimore
Ravens quarterback to simulate Lamar Jackson practice?
I mean, I mean, Rich, what's his name?
Anthony.
Anthony Webb.
Was that his name?
No.
Taylor Anthony something.
It might not even be Anthony.
We might just not be saying his name.
That guy.
I think it's fine.
Like the reality is the only guy who can probably Sim Lamar is running your first team offense
in Buffalo.
So unless you want to put him out there with the scout team, yeah, you got to find someone
that can that can emulate this.
And that was the guy on the market that can.
But McDermott's been very real in his press conferences.
He's like, yeah, you can't really emulate Lamar.
You know what I mean?
He's like, we're going to do our best.
But yeah, this is not this is not going to be what it's going to actually be like.
You know, I would be far less optimistic JJ if these two teams did not already face each
other this season.
I would say if this was the first time these two squads were going up, I would put the
advantage clearly with Baltimore.
But because the bills have seen this already and because the bills weren't healthy the
first time around and now this one's in Buffalo, there are critical points in both game script
and in strategy.
I think that flip a couple of knobs turn a couple of knobs in the bills favor in this
game.
I am rooting I'm rooting for a really good game and obviously I'm rooting for the bills
to win.
But I'm also against my type really optimistic for the bills in this game.
Good.
No, I like that.
The quarterback we were looking for was Anthony Brown.
Anthony Brown.
He was right on one thing.
He was also a former bills quarterback from preseason.
Get the hell out of town.
No, he was on the roster briefly.
In related news, the Buffalo bills have also signed a moose to run the ball and simulate
Derek Henry, a full active Canadian moose.
I thought it would just be like a grizzly bear riding a Jeep.
A grizzly bear on cocaine.
Jesus Christ.
Derek Henry.
Oh God.
I think the bills have slowed like we only remember the bad stuff.
We have slowed Derek Henry down before.
They have contained him.
Just not.
He's in such an in an ideal environment for his style of running and he's got the ideal
partner in Lamar Jackson, which for all of you, internet trolls out there, just because
Lamar Jackson has Derek Henry doesn't take away from Lamar Jackson.
Doesn't make him less of a quarterback.
Please stop with that.
I know.
Oh my God.
It's so nuts.
You're good players.
You shouldn't get the MVP.
I don't know.
It's just people standing so hard for Josh Allen, which I'm the first person to understand.
Yes.
I've put a lot of trolley content out there in favor of Josh Allen winning the MVP, especially
when that nonsense about Joe Burrow, who, I mean, listen, Burrow had a great statistical
season, but that dude had to chuck it up every game because his team stunk.
He had to throw it 50 times every game.
If Josh Allen was in a situation where he had to throw the ball 46 times every game,
he would also be putting up 7,000 yards and 25 touchdowns, you know, over a four week
span.
Yes.
If Josh and Lamar played on dog shit teams like Cincinnati, they would absolutely have
that kind of opportunity too.
Listen, I'm not calling Joe Burrow like a volume shooter, like in the NBA, but there was opportunity
because of the volume that he had to put those things up.
I'm far more impressed with Allen and Lamar season.
And to that extent, Baker Mayfield season too, even though they had no running game
in Tampa Bay for large stretches, even as good as Bucky Irving was this year.
So and he had to do a lot with his arm and his legs as well.
But Joe Burrow, great statistical season, maybe the fourth, fifth or even sixth most
impressive QB performance though this year.
Like there were guys clearly above him.
Yeah, fair.
I like I put Jared Goff above him.
I would go there.
You talk about flipping a script, right?
Like Goff and every every weakness that dude has had throughout his career seems to have
been solved by Ben Johnson and then just the maturity that the golf has shown in Detroit
just while so much.
So much.
Yeah, so much.
All right, let's let's do some predictions.
Sure to go wrong.
Oh, God, what do you got for this one?
You start.
This is where my optimism comes crashing down, JJ.
All right.
So the game to me for whatever reason opened up at one and a half in favor of the bills.
And while I get home field advantage, I thought pretty immediately that the line on this should
have been one and a half for the Ravens.
Well, within like two hours that betting opened, the line did shift to the Ravens.
So as we speak, right now the Ravens are favored by a point and a half.
The over under for this game is 51 and a half.
That feels a little high, especially given the weather conditions and the propensity that
we feel like both of these teams are going to have for running the ball.
But I mean, we're things have happened.
So JJ, here's my final score prediction.
I think Buffalo is going to course correct enough from earlier in the season.
I think the that the bills defense will have enough answers to get stops in those condensed
windows that I was talking about earlier, and I think the Buffalo bills are going to
pull this one out.
I think weather is going to be a factor.
But I think ultimately bills pull this one out.
I'm going to go bills 28 Ravens 24.
Oh, man, I know you so well as you are because I keep track of these as I was typing in the
running showliner.
I wrote Dan bills 27 24.
So I was off my point.
There you are.
I mean, listen, you know me.
I don't ever like to predict bills 30 point game.
I just whenever I do, they get trounced.
And I always undersell the defense with point total as well.
I'm like, oh, they're going to give up.
They're going to give up over 20 pretty easily.
So yeah, yeah.
But that's where I'm at 28 24 bills bills moving on to the AFC champion.
I think that both teams are going to try to lean on their game script and the run so heavily
that this game is going to have a restricted amount of possessions.
And I also have the bills pulling it out.
I also have it being a kind of a cardiac contest and everybody freaking out the whole way.
But I have the bills winning 23 17.
Oh, so you got a much lower scoring affair.
Okay, hitting the under and just scraping this thing out kind of last last possession
type game.
I mean, I could see that man.
I mean, if you're not going to give your best shot, particularly on defense is the bills
right now, like, when are you going to do it?
Right.
So I could see them summoning like a masterclass for this one game.
Absolutely.
All right, JJ, I got I got two props for you.
Over under and this is combined for both teams over under two and a half total turnovers
for both teams.
The bills have done an exceptional job taking care of the ball this year and the Baltimore
Ravens are plus six and turnover differential.
And notably Lamar Jackson only throw thrown four picks this season, right?
But whether it'll be a factor, these are two defenses that need to turn the opponent over
and they try to on every possession.
So what's going to give JJ?
Are these offenses finally going to cough it up?
Or are these defenses going to fail to generate the volume of turnovers we're used to seeing?
I think that the defenses will generate turnovers.
But I'm taking the under.
I don't see there being three turnovers in this game.
I think two is probably the cap because both both offenses are exceptional at maintaining
the priority, which is the possession of the football.
So I'm going to hit the under.
I'm going to say the probably will probably see two turnovers, hopefully both by the Ravens.
But I could see maybe one each for the teams.
And so yeah, I think that it's I'm going to go ahead and hit the under.
Where are you at with it?
I'm going to take the over.
And reason being is because I think it needs to be over if the bills are going to generate
those extra possessions for Josh Allen.
OK, yeah.
All right.
I'm going to lean back into your your three things that need to happen over under 2.5
sacks on Lamar Jackson.
Again, I'm going to hope for the over at this particular point, though I don't listen, man,
we have seen at Oliver when when left one on one be an absolute game record.
And I actually think Baltimore, based on the way they play, is a squad that is going to
leave him one on one.
I think Greg Rousseau is has been ascendant all season.
And if there is a game that you need him to show out is this game for sure.
And I think, listen, I think Milano is going to have something to say at the end of the
day about generating pressure in the backfield on on Lamar Jackson.
So I'm going to say over and I'm going to say Rousseau gets one.
I'm going to say Oliver gets one.
I'm going to say Milano gets one.
Oh, that's good.
You're giving the you're giving the player stats to.
Yep.
I like it.
I'm also going to go with with over.
And I think I just have a different idea of who the players would be.
I've got Von Miller with one.
Oh, Von Miller.
Me and my uncle Joe, we've got this awesome text chain every game day.
And I you have never met a man, trust me, that shits more on Von Miller than this guy
does.
Like he just he's just like Von Miller, what a waste of money.
Right.
Yeah.
The end of the season incentive he got for that sack on Joe.
I think it was I think it was he's a Drake man.
It wasn't Joe Millen at that point, I don't think.
But the 1.5 million, he's like, Brett's ridiculous.
That's stupid.
Like that's of course, of course, with a million and a half on the line, I could finally get
the juice up to do it.
No, but I think I think you see him show up and I think you need to see him show up in
this game because I'm almost almost taking the over.
I want them to sack Lamar Jackson.
They can get Lamar Jackson on the ground three times.
I think that that would be a statistical representation of a pass rush that is enough to win this
game.
And I think that in order for them to make a real good stretch around at this thing,
they need two to four plays per game that you can point to, even if it's like, you know,
kind of scraping down the line and making a like a running back, scoot it outside or
take a different angle that ends up in a tackle for loss, even if it's not Miller, you know
what I mean?
Like there needs to be two to four plays per game where you can like watch the film and
point to Von Miller having a positive impact for the defense.
If the bills are going to make a long run into the deep playoffs and potentially a championship,
you need to see that guy show up.
Bonus question.
If Von Miller has multiple sacks in this game, let's say he just gets two sacks, right?
Is the contract worth it?
Or these past three years worth it?
If he gets if he gets multiple sacks in this game?
It's not my money.
So yeah, like, you know what I mean?
Like, it's like, it's the kind of thing where like the bills paid so many pass rushers,
so much money who just didn't do anything and especially didn't do anything in the playoffs
during Sean McDermott's tenure that you there's almost no limit on the amount of money I think
is worthwhile for sacks in the playoffs, because it's been so anemic for so many years.
I mean, shit, if they sorry, I'm not supposed to swear on the pot.
If Epineza gets a sack, any contract you pay him is worth it.
Like one sack.
So yeah, I have a feel.
I have a feeling a draft time once we get into whenever it is we get into the off season,
hopefully not too soon.
I think we're going to be talking about who is the premier edge runner out there that
we trade the number one pick for.
Absolutely.
Do we go after Max Crosby, TJ Watt, like, because they need it, man.
They need the juice.
Who's on it?
Yeah.
The bills need a proven commodity because continuing to cast about in the bottom of the first round
is not is not going to find you.
It's not going to find you a TJ Watt or, you know, Max Crosby.
Although wasn't Max Crosby a fourth rounder?
He was a fourth rounder, I think.
But like arguably, arguably, the best, the best first round draft picks that Brandon
Bean has ever made in our in this order, Josh Allen, Stefan Diggs, and then way, way down
Gregor self.
Yeah.
All right.
So like, like he has been at his best when either picking Josh Allen or using a number
one on a proven commodity from another team.
So I wouldn't mind him doing that this year, especially because even now we'd be picking
somewhere deep, deep in the draft and it's, dude, there's just not, there's not going
to be 32 guys with a with an A group at that point.
I'll give up the 20, even if it's the 28th, I'll definitely give up the 32nd for, you
know, TJ Watt, Max Crosby, right?
But something.
Yep.
All right, man.
I got one more prop for you.
All right.
Josh Allen sacked over under one and a half times.
So going back to the beginning, the first game they played this season, Josh was sacked
three times in total.
He was only sacked 15 times total on the season.
So about a fifth 20% of the total sack production on Josh Allen came in this one game against
the Ravens.
It's a vaunted pass rush, they know how to get pressure without blitzing, though their
blitzes can be confounding as well when we saw in the first game and they got a lot of
guys that can get to the QB and they got a lot of guys that can tie up mobile QBs.
So does Josh go down more than once?
Yes, twice.
Yeah, you think so?
Yeah.
I mean, they just played the Denver Broncos who had the best pass rush in the league statistically
and he went down twice.
The Ravens are the third best.
I think they get to him at least twice.
I think it's twice, so definitely over one and a half.
Yeah, I agree.
I think it's going to happen again too.
I just think, I know Josh is unsacrable, but this defensive line is too good.
Well, the defensive line, I think the other piece of it is that the Ravens don't blitz
very often.
So when they do, they tend to have something dialed up that really beats whatever coverage
you have, like the Marlin Humphrey option blitz on that play action rollout that we
saw.
Right, like that was a sack because they out, they scheme to sack.
We talk all the time about wide receivers getting schemed open.
That was essentially a defender being schemed open to say, if your coverage person vacates
or goes into motion and you're alone on the edge, you run straight at Josh Allen if he
has the ball after the mesh point.
Absolutely.
It's well said, well said.
All right, man.
That's it.
That's all we can do.
We've done everything that's in our power to do.
The rest is up to you, Bill.
That's right.
All right, so for all of you listening at home, like, share, and subscribe wherever
you get your podcasts, Apple, YouTube, and Spotify.
And as always, go Bills.
Bye, guys.