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All right, welcome back to the Buffalo Bread podcast.

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We have a divisional round coming up this Sunday, and it's the Sunday night game, the

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premier time slot for the NFL.

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Bills versus Baltimore Ravens in Orchard Park.

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The weather so far looks to be a real field temperature of negative five or negative six,

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which would seem to favor the Bills.

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It's got everybody up in anxiety land.

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Where are you living these days, Dan?

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The Bills are in the playoffs, JJ, so I live permanently in the land of anxiety with much

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many more of my nervous mafia as we like to call ourselves.

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But I mean, listen, as a Bills fan, of course, I'm nervous, but also crazily excited for

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the opportunity to watch what is going to be hopefully a great game between two great

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teams.

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And as a football fan, dude, it doesn't get any better than this.

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Freezing cold weather in Buffalo, the two presumptive MVP front runners going head to

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head in a meaningful postseason game for the right to challenge.

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It probably the chiefs, but the Texans love something to say about that.

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I mean, one step away for both of these teams from reaching the AFC championship and then

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another game from the Super Bowl.

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I mean, JJ, the stakes couldn't be higher.

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The players on the field couldn't be better.

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And anxiety and rooting interests aside, it's a great weekend to be a football fan,

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for sure.

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Absolutely.

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They also, both teams are on the precipice of earning a dubious statistical, historical

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declaration, which is the most wins in seven seasons without reaching the Super Bowl.

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But they're like one and two in that stat right now, like 83 wins, 82 wins, because neither

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team is gone and they've all both been juggernauts in the AFC and they've not gotten to the big

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game and the loser of this game will extend that streak and the winner may be able to

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break it by eventually, you know, getting past the AFC championship game or both will,

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you know, remain because neither of them makes it again this year and they'll continue building

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up that number past 80 wins.

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Oh, God, one.

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Listen, obviously, I don't want the bills to be factored into that little, little slice

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of terrible history, you know what I mean?

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But it is JJ.

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That's just one of the one of these statistical and narrative, I think, conjoining factors

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for these two teams heading into the weekend.

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There is that conversation.

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There is the conversation about Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, not just being the two presumptive

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front runners for the MVP, but how tied together they are in history with their draft status.

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The two QBs that were least coveted in their draft year now kind of inarguably being the

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two best QBs to come out of that draft class that they were in.

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There is the narrative around playoff success, you know, the Buffalo Bills.

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This would be the fourth straight year they would be knocked out in the divisional round,

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should they lose.

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And then for the Baltimore Ravens, should they lose?

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It's well, is Lamar really the guy that's going to get you over the hump?

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There's all of these parallel narratives with these two teams that make this game just so

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rich and so interesting, not just from the X's and O's standpoint, but just from a fan

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chatting it up around the water cooler standpoint.

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There's so much fun stuff to unpack with this game.

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I kind of wish we had seven hours to go over it, but we're both dads.

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We both have sick kids at home.

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I don't think we've got the energy or the stamina to go seven hours.

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So where do you want to get into it?

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Do you want to start with some of the narrative stuff or do you want to get right into the

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X's and O's, my friends?

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Well first, I'll make a correction to your stat package.

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My son has been healthy since January 6th for the first time since August 4th.

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Yeah.

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For the first time in over four months, he is like totally himself with no issues, no

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crud.

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I'm glad to hear it.

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He's probably going to be blown up literally any day because he just returned to daycare,

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but I can't say I have a lot of sleep because he's still 13 months old, but I will say

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that he's not sick.

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So that's good.

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I'm sorry your kids are and that's not, that's the worst.

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All good, man.

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It comes to being in dadland.

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It does.

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Where I want to start is actually a very brief review of the, Bill's played a game this past

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weekend.

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They did.

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They played against the Broncos.

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They played a half.

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They played a half against the Broncos.

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They were sort of sleepwalking through the first half, which we've seen in so many Bill's

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games and really cannot happen this upcoming weekend, of course.

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But they, yeah, they did more like what I had said they would do to a rookie quarterback

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and the defense completely stifled the Broncos in the second half and in really every drive

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after the first one, the defense was standing up and shutting them down.

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And then Josh Allen, Josh Allen and James Cook James Cooked.

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And it was a, you know, resounding victory.

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I think everybody who I know who was at the game said it was basically a party from like

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the start of the third quarter on.

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I don't know if I like your tone about what, how you said what I predicted would happen.

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Yes.

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All right.

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You were very right.

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I was very wrong.

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And I was, you thought it was going to be like a very tough last minute field goal type

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game.

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I thought like 27-21 felt pretty realistic.

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But I think we saw this with some of the AFC, the other AFC West team that was in the playoffs

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and the LA Chargers, like the Denver Broncos, they didn't play the toughest schedule in

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the world and neither did the Chargers.

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The Chargers actually played the least hard schedule this season and the Broncos were

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not much better.

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And while they had a couple of flash moments that would make you think this squad could

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be a problem.

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I mean, JJ exposed as the word that comes to mind, especially for what the Buffalo

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Bills offense did to that vaunted Denver Broncos defense in the second half.

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I mean, it was a lot like the strategy they rolled out last year against the Cowboys

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where it was on that defensive line for Denver, very, very light, not a lot of big bodied guys.

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And Sean McDermott and Joe Brady were like, we're going to throw as many big bodied humans

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as possible against your tinier humans.

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You're at more athletic, but tinier humans.

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And we just think our size is going to win.

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And they were right.

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I mean, from the second half on, it was as dominating a win is physically dominating

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a win as the Bills have had.

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I mean, we can unpack the ridiculous stats, the time of possession disparity, 41 minutes

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to 19 minutes in favor of the Bills.

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We can unpack the rushing yard disparity, 200 yards to, I think it was only 87 yards

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for the Broncos.

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And what stuck out to me, JJ, was how well the Bills did defensively in playing, turning

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their, what had been weaknesses into strengths.

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This is a squad in Buffalo.

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They're just struggled against mobile QBs.

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And when it came to allowing QBs to roll out on pass plays, the Buffalo Bills heading

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into that game were 31st in defensive efficiency.

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But every time Bo Nicks rolled out, they had a plan for it.

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They didn't let him get too many, extend too many drives with his legs.

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And when he rolled out, they took away his second reaction throws.

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The screen game, the quick game for Denver, the Buffalo Bills 32nd in efficiency this

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year when defending the screen game, absolutely shut that down.

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When they went to Mims, when they went to a running back, it didn't matter.

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Buffalo was prepared for what Denver wanted to do.

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And what has been a permissive Buffalo Bills defense that clearly wants you to run and

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wants you to take the short area yardage, they were not allowing that save for that

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first drive in the game.

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This was, we've talked about how this Buffalo Bills defense JJ has been multiple all year

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and as a result, a little bit higher variance.

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It was really nice, especially heading into the Baltimore game to see them handle a mobile

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QB and handle a quick game and limit yards after catch the way that they did.

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It's three things the Bills have not done well defensively this season.

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And I will say too, that just the offensive line for the Broncos has not been good at

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past, or at rush blocking, run blocking this year.

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And that is a recipe for destruction at the hands of the Bills.

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If you're not a strong running team and your strength of your offense is passing it all

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over the yard, that is a opportunity that Sean McDermott can absolutely shut you down.

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If the Bills are not afraid of your running attack, you're not going to get anywhere.

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They'll drop seven, drop eight into coverage.

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His zone schemes and his mixed matched man zone schemes are so complex.

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And more importantly, the players who run them are so elite at their discipline in the

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scheme that the windows that you think you're going to have are rarely there, especially

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when it comes to the linebacker.

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When Terrell Bernard and Matt Milano are in coverage, you're not going to be able to hit

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the shots you're going to hit against probably 80% of linebackers in the league, because

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those two are so excellent at just a good feel for where they need to be in their zone,

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their landmarks, who's entering, who's leaving, who they need to pass off.

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And that, I think we saw that explicitly throughout the game was that Bonix was looking for answers

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and they were never there.

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And so when the only thing you're bringing is your kind of passing attack and your rushing

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attack is anemic, that ain't it for the Bills are going to absolutely win that game.

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Absolutely.

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I will say, like, if you're looking for a blemish or like a future concerned to point

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to, while Bonix did not play like a rookie in that game, Troy Franklin did.

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And there were moments where he absolutely had Rizul Douglas dead to rights.

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He had Christian Benford dead to rights a couple of times on some middle of field crossing

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routes.

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And he just dropped really good passes from Bonix.

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A better wide receiver core may have taken advantage of some of those matchups.

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And that was one of the things I was worried about for the Bills headed into this game

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was the size, speed disparity for this wide receiver core.

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I think Quirtland Sutton had a great game and Benford for maybe the second or third

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time this season really struggled to lock him down.

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Like he had his moments of weakness against Garrett Wilson, too, in that first Jets game

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for sure.

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Benford has been locked down all season, but really struggled with Sutton in a lot of ways.

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If there was even a competent number two to Sutton on that team, the result may have been

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a little bit closer.

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Not, I think, enough to sway things in favor of the Broncos, but that could have been a

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much closer game.

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And I think with Bateman and Flowers, potentially Flowers, who hasn't practiced yet for the

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Ravens as we were recording this pod heading into this weekend, that may be a bigger test

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than this Broncos wide receiver unit was for this DB core.

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But JJ, outside of that, defense looked good to me.

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And Milano, he found that third gear that we are so used to seeing him, particularly

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sideline to sideline, chasing down running backs in the run defense game.

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So a lot to be hopeful for as the Bills head into this epic divisional matchup against

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the Ravens.

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And it is epic.

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And I think we can probably get to it at this point, because I mean, that's what there

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is to say about the Broncos game.

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It was that the Bills defense was overmatched from the first, from the second series on

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against a rookie quarterback, a young offense that didn't have an established rushing attack

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that struggled to do what it likes to do with the pass.

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And then, you know, on the Bills offense, it was just dominating trans performance.

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They had an incredibly variable rushing attack.

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It was gap.

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It was zone.

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James Cook had some of the best vision I've seen from him all season.

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And hopefully that continues into this round of the playoffs, because he was playing like

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a man possessed.

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He was finding space and gaps in the defense that wouldn't be there for most running backs.

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It was an excellent performance by James Cook.

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So Mr. 16 touchdown, James Cook was getting it done.

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Absolutely.

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We love it when Cook cooks and he absolutely did in this game.

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And Brady stuck with the run game, even as Josh was settling in, missing a couple of

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throws in the first half.

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Dude, lots of good things all the way around for the Buffalo Bills as they head into this

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matchup against the Ravens.

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So JJ, listen, man, lots of meat on this bone.

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Where do you want to start with this game?

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Do you want to talk a little bit about some of the narrative stuff?

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Do you want to talk X's and O's?

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How do you want to hit this?

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I want to talk a little bit X's and O's just from one standpoint, because I think on the

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offensive side, the Ravens offense, the Bills offense, they both have a lot of answers.

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They both have a lot of things that they're excellent at.

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From the Bills defense against this, against Lamar Jackson, Travis Henry, I don't think

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Zay Flowers is going to play.

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I think that he's a scratch for this game.

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I think that need imagery is worse than they've been putting on in the media.

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I think wild.

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Yeah.

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I think that Harbaugh is by saying, oh, he could play even if he doesn't practice is

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trying to get the Bills to prepare for that through practice when there's no intention

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for him to play.

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I think because if you're projecting already throughout the week that there's no way he's

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going to practice as the coach, you're probably already having an answer for the weekend as

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well.

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That's wild to think about how he got hurt too.

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In a meaningless game at the end of the season.

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In a meaningless nothing game at the end of the season that didn't have no bearing on

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your playoff chances or seeding.

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Stat padding basically at the end of the season for your guys to get their contract incentives

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and then left them out here, left them out there way too long, way too long.

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And it sucks to see I really like Zay Flowers.

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Me too.

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I thought he was great coming out of the draft.

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One of the players that I was targeting every time I was doing a kind of a mock leading

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up to that draft too.

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We'd always figure out a way to mock draft Zay Flowers.

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Exactly.

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Squeeze him in there somewhere.

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He's just a great player and it would, from a fan fandom aside, it sucks to not see a

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great football player get his moment in this run.

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So but I think that that's important.

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It's important to acknowledge though the absence that he would cause by not being there.

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He's their number one targeted and number one receiving arts, number one receptions

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receiver and it changes the dynamic of the offense for them.

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But they're going to give it to Derek Henry.

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Exactly.

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Well, that's exactly that's the one point I want to make schematically about the bill's

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defense is we've said for years on this pod with McDermott, with Frazier, not with

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Babbage, the defense is the defense.

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You said something about the Broncos game and the defense being variable that I appreciate

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and hope for in this game against the Ravens.

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We saw the bills employ three linebackers a couple of times this season when they were

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up against heavy personnel.

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We also saw the bills do some mirror match QB spy stuff against Mahomes, which they may

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need to employ, especially on third, you know, long and late downs by taking a defensive

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lineman off the field doing a three man rush, adding coverage, adding spy.

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So all of those things, if they're not variable, if they play the defense is the defense, they're

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absolutely going to get cooked for 300 rushing yards and lose this game, I guarantee it.

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If we see Taryn Johnson on the field with four down defensive linemen, including AJ

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Epinezza, and two linebackers and then four DBs in the back.

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And the in a set where the Ravens have six offensive linemen and Patrick Ricard in front

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of Derek Henry, I will absolutely I'm not going to throw anything at my TV because it

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was expensive and I don't got that kind of scratch to replace it.

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But I will be so incensed and furious that I can't even I can't even Dan.

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So all right, I want to say two things.

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I am confident that Babbage and McDermott are going to scheme something up.

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That's not going to, I think, stop this rushing attack.

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But how many times have we seen, and I think most recently to last season, wasn't I think

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it was last season, the Miami Dolphins 70 point game against Denver, the very next game,

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heading into Buffalo, divisional matchup, media narrative is no one can stop this offense.

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Would admit what's McDermott do?

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He stops that offense, right?

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We have seen this time and time again in the in the in the their most recent matchup in

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the COVID year against the Ravens.

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How are you going to stop Lamar?

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Right?

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Lamar is having a great year.

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How are you going to stop Lamar?

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They stop Lamar, right?

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Granted, whether played a little bit of factor as did Terran Johnson at the end of that game.

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But um, yeah, I mean, we've seen McDermott is a defensive mind rise to the occasion more

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than once.

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He has been burned by Derek Henry multiple times, multiple times throughout his career,

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but he has also had several games where he's done a good job of bottling up Derek Henry

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as well.

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I think if there is anybody left in the playoffs outside of Steve's Bagnola, it is Sean McDermott

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that's going to come up with a way to figure out how to at least slow this offense down.

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And I think part of that is going to be complimentary football.

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I am drinking the Kool-Aid on complimentary football, but we saw that take off here.

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I got to see if you're bald or is this Sean McDermott?

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Sean McDermott, did you sneak on my podcast?

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But dude, we saw it in the Denver game and we saw it to some extent last year in the

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divisional round against Kansas City, where the game plan was clearly just to great on

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the opposing teams defense in the run game, dominate time of possession, which the bills

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have not been good at this season because the defense can't get off the field on third

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down.

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So the offense is getting far fewer opportunities than it got last year.

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It's running on average about 15 less plays per game than it did last season.

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That's a lot.

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That's a series.

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That's a series or two.

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Right?

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So I think the game plan offensively is going to be not keep the defense off the field necessarily,

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but let's great.

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Let's dominate time of possession and then let's force Lamar Jackson, Derek Henry and

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Todd Munkin, their offensive coordinator and play caller, into condensed chunks of time

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where the game script, which we know means so much to the bills, is in our favor and

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it takes them out of their first few scripted plays.

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I think that's going to be the recipe for it.

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And I think in a condensed window, in a condensed window, I do think this Buffalo Bill's defense

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can find a way to get a couple of stops against this Ravens offense enough to get the ball

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back to Josh and let our offense do our thing.

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I think that's right.

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I think that the thing that the greatest weapon the defense has had all season long is game

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script because when the pressure is on the opponent, that's all of those games we've

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seen that snowballed out of control for the bill's opponents and resulted in huge landslide

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wins.

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It's when the bills get up a little early, when the myth of Josh Allen gets in the offensive

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coordinator's head for the opposition and when the pass rush can pin its ears back because

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that's the only time it makes an impact.

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When the pass rush has to play the run through to the quarterback, they're completely ineffective

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and they will have to play the run through to the quarterback until they get in a position

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where they know for sure Lamar is dropping back to pass.

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And that's not going to happen until the bills have two scores on the board ahead of the

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Ravens.

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And that's the part that scares me the most about this game is that for the defense to

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be at its most effective, for the defense to start generating turnovers and negative

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plays, they need to get ahead on this.

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They need the offense to score and score often.

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And this Ravens defense number one overall in the league in stopping the run, their

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pass defense is 31st, but that's not accurate.

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I think that stat is a little bit flawed because it's just about yards and they are much better

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than that and have been much better over the past eight weeks.

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Correct.

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Yep.

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Absolutely.

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And so in order for game script to go the way that it goes, the offense has to find its

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mojo, right?

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And dude, they are, they're up against it for a couple of reasons.

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And you mentioned, I think to me the biggest one, this is one of the few teams in the league

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that has successfully in the Baltimore Ravens shut down the run.

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They're allowing the least amount of rushing yards per game.

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They're allowing the least amount of yards per attempt.

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They've allowed the least amount of 10 of 10 or more yards per 10 or more individual

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rushes, rushes of 10 or more yards in the league.

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And dude, they're doing it with with light boxes for the most part, right?

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They're not stacking their boxes.

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They are only playing light boxes about 43% of the time.

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It's dude, it's it is, it's a tall task for, for these Buffalo Bills and the offense to

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try to overcome.

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Well, I think that the thing that makes their defense, their defensive front so dangerous

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against the run is the same thing that makes them a little bit liable in the past.

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They have some really beefy defensive linemen and then they've got some thicker bodied linebackers

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at the second level who are excellent gap fill linebackers, but can sometimes struggle in

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coverage, especially with more athletic tight ends with slot receivers and those sorts of

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things.

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And so that situation creates a wonderful advantage for them against the run and a little

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bit of liability against the pass.

361
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But a lot of the liability is covered up by Harbaugh, just like McDermott having these

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players absolutely disciplined in their assignments, playing assignment sound football.

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The thing that watching all 22 footage of several Ravens games.

364
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I watched the Eagles Ravens game, which actually scared me more about the Eagles than the Ravens

365
00:22:41,000 --> 00:22:42,560
where they lost to the Eagles.

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I watched, of course, both Pittsburgh games.

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Pittsburgh is just completely outmatched when they play against this team.

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Terrible.

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The game that Pittsburgh won earlier in the season was pretty much a complete fluke.

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Watching that back, there was a handful of plays that just bounced the wrong way for

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the Ravens that otherwise could have blown the game wide open.

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So you know, watching all that, this Ravens front, they play so gap sound that they're

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probably the only team in the league that I think could stop Lamar Jackson and Derek

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Henry.

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Right.

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Because the beef they have and how disciplined they are in holding their gaps, they don't

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get moved off their spots because that's the biggest thing that Ravens do with their

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read option.

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They essentially get everybody moving in one direction and then Lamar scoots out the other

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00:23:32,040 --> 00:23:37,360
side when nobody's looking or the players who stayed frozen trying to protect against

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00:23:37,360 --> 00:23:42,920
Lamar scraping around the outside or bootlegging are out of position when Derek Henry literally

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00:23:42,920 --> 00:23:43,920
runs them over.

383
00:23:43,920 --> 00:23:45,160
Yeah, man.

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00:23:45,160 --> 00:23:50,720
And, you know, it means that if the bills can't and cannot figure out an answer for

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this run defense, they're going to have to look to the past.

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And to your point, the secondary for Baltimore while they were eating up in the first part

387
00:23:58,320 --> 00:24:04,600
of the season, the second half of the season, they've been so much better at limiting explosive

388
00:24:04,600 --> 00:24:06,840
plays, so much better at yards per game.

389
00:24:06,840 --> 00:24:13,040
And their efficiency metrics over the last eight weeks in the past game are in the top

390
00:24:13,040 --> 00:24:14,400
five pretty regularly.

391
00:24:14,400 --> 00:24:17,120
No matter which passing metric you want to look at.

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00:24:17,120 --> 00:24:24,240
And dude, this is a team that still gets pressure on the QB with all of that being said.

393
00:24:24,240 --> 00:24:27,040
And they have one of the lowest Blitz rates in the league too.

394
00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:32,100
Them and the Bills are in a virtual tie for the fifth lowest Blitz rate in the league.

395
00:24:32,100 --> 00:24:37,040
But the key difference with these Baltimore Ravens, they're top five, number five in sack

396
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percentage.

397
00:24:38,160 --> 00:24:40,920
They get home to the opposing QB.

398
00:24:40,920 --> 00:24:44,760
They don't have to blitz, which means they don't have to leave their DBs vulnerable in

399
00:24:44,760 --> 00:24:45,760
coverage.

400
00:24:45,760 --> 00:24:49,360
They have a lot of ways they can defend the pass and the run.

401
00:24:49,360 --> 00:24:54,480
And it's going to be interesting to see what the Buffalo Bills do to mitigate some of that.

402
00:24:54,480 --> 00:25:00,200
May I offer under center play action, which I don't think the Bills will go to.

403
00:25:00,200 --> 00:25:04,880
And the only reason being is because I don't think in the scenario, Josh or Brady are going

404
00:25:04,880 --> 00:25:08,680
to be too comfortable with Josh's back to the line of scrimmage until they have a really

405
00:25:08,680 --> 00:25:13,200
good feel for how they're handling this Baltimore Ravens pass rush.

406
00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:19,920
Yeah, I think under center play action is a wonderful solution against this type of defense,

407
00:25:19,920 --> 00:25:26,380
specifically the second level, specifically the linebackers in putting them in conflict.

408
00:25:26,380 --> 00:25:32,400
But you're absolutely right until the Bills until the Bills offensive line, specifically

409
00:25:32,400 --> 00:25:39,840
David Edwards, Spencer Brown, maybe a little bit of Cyrus Torrance until they prove that

410
00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:45,320
they can win one on one matchups against their individual blocking assignments.

411
00:25:45,320 --> 00:25:47,920
I don't think you're going to see Josh Allen turn his back.

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00:25:47,920 --> 00:25:54,320
I mean, away coming off the edge is has like some of the quickest and strongest pass rush

413
00:25:54,320 --> 00:25:55,520
moves I've seen.

414
00:25:55,520 --> 00:26:00,640
And I could definitely see Spencer Brown struggling with some of that.

415
00:26:00,640 --> 00:26:07,080
Yeah, I mean, listen, it's and it's so hard to to continually pick on Spencer Brown because

416
00:26:07,080 --> 00:26:08,200
he's been great this year.

417
00:26:08,200 --> 00:26:09,360
He's been awesome.

418
00:26:09,360 --> 00:26:14,320
And there's an argument that you can make that the best tackle tandem in the league

419
00:26:14,320 --> 00:26:16,800
is Spencer Brown and Deon Dawkins for sure.

420
00:26:16,800 --> 00:26:18,760
He's had a great year, right?

421
00:26:18,760 --> 00:26:25,160
But I think back to that first game in particular and granted, lots has changed.

422
00:26:25,160 --> 00:26:29,920
There's been a lot of growth, but even a Kyle van Noy, going off the edge one on one against

423
00:26:29,920 --> 00:26:33,280
Spencer Brown, Van Noy ate his lunch that game.

424
00:26:33,280 --> 00:26:34,440
Like he won.

425
00:26:34,440 --> 00:26:41,320
He got I think Van Noy generated pressure on like 15 percent of his past rushes and

426
00:26:41,320 --> 00:26:46,960
that number jumped to 27 percent, which is astronomical when he was again one on one

427
00:26:46,960 --> 00:26:48,720
with Spencer Brown, right?

428
00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:56,480
Yeah, yeah, it's so but enter in the heavy set, the jumbo set with Alec Anderson, right?

429
00:26:56,480 --> 00:26:58,000
We know the bills can throw out of that.

430
00:26:58,000 --> 00:27:01,200
We know they can run pretty successfully out of that.

431
00:27:01,200 --> 00:27:06,440
And one of the things that I think, and this was just an eyeball thing, the defensive line

432
00:27:06,440 --> 00:27:09,880
for Baltimore, they just look bigger than our dudes.

433
00:27:09,880 --> 00:27:13,880
But you put in an Alec Anderson, you run a little bit more heavy sets and you grind it

434
00:27:13,880 --> 00:27:14,880
out.

435
00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:18,560
It's a great way to mitigate what is an otherwise aggressive pass rush.

436
00:27:18,560 --> 00:27:25,760
Well, and I even think that kind of the bootleg play action stretch run pass out of heavy

437
00:27:25,760 --> 00:27:32,200
set could be an absolute Ravens killer, because if you establish early on that you're going

438
00:27:32,200 --> 00:27:37,560
to run out of that heavy set and they're geeking themselves up to stop the run and stop James

439
00:27:37,560 --> 00:27:43,880
Cook, that is a recipe for Dalton can Kate against one of those overmatched linebackers,

440
00:27:43,880 --> 00:27:50,600
you know, or Dawson's leak, one of our favorite plays in order to make, you know, frontside

441
00:27:50,600 --> 00:27:55,360
or backside bootleg result in, you know, some positive yards.

442
00:27:55,360 --> 00:28:00,880
Although in the first game, do you remember there was a naked boot play action that Marlin

443
00:28:00,880 --> 00:28:03,640
Humphrey literally shot directly in on?

444
00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:06,920
And did he get a sack or did he just force a quick throw from Josh?

445
00:28:06,920 --> 00:28:07,920
I think you got a sack.

446
00:28:07,920 --> 00:28:08,920
I think you put him.

447
00:28:08,920 --> 00:28:10,640
He put him on the ground.

448
00:28:10,640 --> 00:28:13,600
Josh was sacked three times in that game.

449
00:28:13,600 --> 00:28:16,320
And dude, this is this is the thing.

450
00:28:16,320 --> 00:28:20,960
Baltimore legitimately defends mobile QBs, maybe the best in the league like this against

451
00:28:20,960 --> 00:28:21,960
it every week.

452
00:28:21,960 --> 00:28:25,280
I mean, you joked about it earlier, but it's just true.

453
00:28:25,280 --> 00:28:32,240
The matchup for the bills offense to defense is worse than it was early in the season because

454
00:28:32,240 --> 00:28:37,760
the Ravens have, I think solidified one of the few weaknesses they had on this defense.

455
00:28:37,760 --> 00:28:42,800
And that was the deep ball and that were long to intermediate shots downfield.

456
00:28:42,800 --> 00:28:47,560
Now that they've solidified that, they've really fine tuned where they're at at every

457
00:28:47,560 --> 00:28:49,400
level of this defense.

458
00:28:49,400 --> 00:28:55,240
And there's just so much stuff that the bills like to go to in their bag of tricks offensively.

459
00:28:55,240 --> 00:29:00,400
This might be the first time this year where I think our defense may have some surprising

460
00:29:00,400 --> 00:29:03,160
answers for the Ravens offense.

461
00:29:03,160 --> 00:29:07,720
And the defense may have more answers for their matchup than the offense does.

462
00:29:07,720 --> 00:29:12,040
Because again, our wide receivers, they're not big separation guys either.

463
00:29:12,040 --> 00:29:17,280
And the Baltimore Ravens, it just so happens are the third best team in allowing limited

464
00:29:17,280 --> 00:29:19,120
separation to opposing wide outs.

465
00:29:19,120 --> 00:29:24,400
They allow below the league average at 3.2 yards average of separation to the nearest

466
00:29:24,400 --> 00:29:25,400
pass catcher.

467
00:29:25,400 --> 00:29:30,680
I mean, everything you would look for this both of those offense to do in order to to

468
00:29:30,680 --> 00:29:35,200
gain leverage or gain an advantage against this Baltimore Ravens defense, they have either

469
00:29:35,200 --> 00:29:40,800
gotten better at or they have been wire to wire this season, the best team in the league

470
00:29:40,800 --> 00:29:41,800
at it.

471
00:29:41,800 --> 00:29:44,440
Brady listen, man, Brady is in his bag.

472
00:29:44,440 --> 00:29:46,760
He is at the peak of his powers right now.

473
00:29:46,760 --> 00:29:50,640
If there is a dude that can figure it out, it's him.

474
00:29:50,640 --> 00:29:53,520
But I actually think we're sleeping on the defensive side of the ball.

475
00:29:53,520 --> 00:29:58,000
I think the defense is going to have more to say on the outcome of this game than we're

476
00:29:58,000 --> 00:30:00,120
giving it credit for.

477
00:30:00,120 --> 00:30:01,120
And I think that's fair.

478
00:30:01,120 --> 00:30:06,000
I think that that's going to I think the how the bill's defense is able to stand up against

479
00:30:06,000 --> 00:30:08,200
Lamar and Derek Henry.

480
00:30:08,200 --> 00:30:10,480
That's the answer for whether or not the bills win this game.

481
00:30:10,480 --> 00:30:11,480
You know what I mean?

482
00:30:11,480 --> 00:30:16,120
Like, I think that that's more of an answer than what kind of MVP performance Josh Allen

483
00:30:16,120 --> 00:30:24,040
puts on because I think that if the defense gets enough stops on third down, the bills

484
00:30:24,040 --> 00:30:25,040
will win.

485
00:30:25,040 --> 00:30:26,360
And that's just it, right?

486
00:30:26,360 --> 00:30:31,360
Like they'll find a way to move, you know, propagate the ball down the field and then

487
00:30:31,360 --> 00:30:35,080
get it in either with kicks or with touchdowns.

488
00:30:35,080 --> 00:30:39,360
Even though the Ravens are one of the best red zone defenses in the league as well, they're

489
00:30:39,360 --> 00:30:41,080
like, they're the best at everything.

490
00:30:41,080 --> 00:30:45,680
So this is the number one, number one team and overall DV away, by the way, in case

491
00:30:45,680 --> 00:30:48,880
you guys haven't figured it out based on what we're talking about.

492
00:30:48,880 --> 00:30:52,960
But no, it's a it's an imposing matchup for the bills, right?

493
00:30:52,960 --> 00:30:54,200
Yeah, go ahead.

494
00:30:54,200 --> 00:30:57,880
I'll just say this one thing based on all that I've said and all that we've looked

495
00:30:57,880 --> 00:31:03,000
at because we're both stat nerds and I grind the film and I look at it.

496
00:31:03,000 --> 00:31:09,760
If the bills are able to pull this one out and beat the Ravens, they have to make it

497
00:31:09,760 --> 00:31:15,280
to the Super Bowl because they will have beaten probably the best team left in the whole

498
00:31:15,280 --> 00:31:16,280
field.

499
00:31:16,280 --> 00:31:17,280
I would agree.

500
00:31:17,280 --> 00:31:19,280
I would agree with that.

501
00:31:19,280 --> 00:31:22,480
God, wouldn't that be awesome too?

502
00:31:22,480 --> 00:31:25,080
Like I can't even let my head go there, though.

503
00:31:25,080 --> 00:31:29,160
But yeah, I mean, listen, there's usually a lot of media hyperbole around these hyperbole

504
00:31:29,160 --> 00:31:30,160
around these games.

505
00:31:30,160 --> 00:31:33,920
And a lot of folks are saying, oh, well, whoever wins this is probably going to represent the

506
00:31:33,920 --> 00:31:36,040
AFC and the Super Bowl.

507
00:31:36,040 --> 00:31:40,760
And listen, Houston and more so Kansas City will absolutely have something to say about

508
00:31:40,760 --> 00:31:41,760
that.

509
00:31:41,760 --> 00:31:46,560
It's no stronger narrative to work in your favor than no one believes in us.

510
00:31:46,560 --> 00:31:51,560
So if people are writing off KC in particular at this early stage of the playoffs as a result

511
00:31:51,560 --> 00:31:57,760
of this game, big mistake, big mistake, my friend, just given their track record and

512
00:31:57,760 --> 00:31:59,760
their pedigree.

513
00:31:59,760 --> 00:32:06,160
But dude, if one of these teams in this matchup knock each other off, it feels like these

514
00:32:06,160 --> 00:32:09,820
are the two best teams in the field going against each other like it just does.

515
00:32:09,820 --> 00:32:15,760
When you look at it from every angle, every statistical measure, every every cellulite

516
00:32:15,760 --> 00:32:17,760
piece of film, right?

517
00:32:17,760 --> 00:32:21,120
Like yes, it just feels like these are the two best teams.

518
00:32:21,120 --> 00:32:22,120
You're correct.

519
00:32:22,120 --> 00:32:27,720
The two best teams with the two MVP candidates who of course don't play against each other.

520
00:32:27,720 --> 00:32:31,960
But I'm just going to say this market on the pod.

521
00:32:31,960 --> 00:32:35,560
Lamar Jackson is your 2024 season MVP.

522
00:32:35,560 --> 00:32:43,720
There's never been an MVP voted by the same group of people basically that vote for the

523
00:32:43,720 --> 00:32:46,360
AP All Pros.

524
00:32:46,360 --> 00:32:52,160
There's never been an MVP quarterback chosen who wasn't also the first team All Pro quarterback

525
00:32:52,160 --> 00:32:54,360
and that's Lamar Jackson.

526
00:32:54,360 --> 00:32:56,680
And so I just feel like it's done.

527
00:32:56,680 --> 00:32:57,680
Yeah.

528
00:32:57,680 --> 00:33:01,880
I mean, if and when that happens, we can unpack it.

529
00:33:01,880 --> 00:33:05,560
I want to get ahead of because I'll be pissed at that moment and I'll probably say stuff

530
00:33:05,560 --> 00:33:07,920
and put stuff on the internet that I'll regret.

531
00:33:07,920 --> 00:33:11,920
But I will say like Lamar said, a hell of a season.

532
00:33:11,920 --> 00:33:20,400
And I wish so much of my social media feeds have been about the Josh versus Lamar MVP

533
00:33:20,400 --> 00:33:26,120
debate and each side tearing the other guy down, like finding these imperceptibly small

534
00:33:26,120 --> 00:33:30,280
differentiators to try to make their case seem airtight.

535
00:33:30,280 --> 00:33:35,640
And the reality is, is both of these guys in wildly different circumstances performed

536
00:33:35,640 --> 00:33:37,880
above and beyond expectations.

537
00:33:37,880 --> 00:33:45,240
They gave us they gave us two of the best quarterbacked seasons of football, perhaps

538
00:33:45,240 --> 00:33:51,320
at least in the amount of time I have been a viewer of football and perhaps statistically

539
00:33:51,320 --> 00:33:53,120
an NFL history.

540
00:33:53,120 --> 00:33:57,440
And at a time where there's a lot of like exciting QB prospects, but not a lot of great

541
00:33:57,440 --> 00:33:58,920
QB play.

542
00:33:58,920 --> 00:34:03,480
That is something is as NFL fans, we should be cherishing and not tearing down based on

543
00:34:03,480 --> 00:34:06,680
the jersey that we want to wear and the team we want to root for.

544
00:34:06,680 --> 00:34:11,480
So regardless of who wins, both of these guys gave us something very, very special this

545
00:34:11,480 --> 00:34:12,480
season.

546
00:34:12,480 --> 00:34:16,200
And it's something that is football fans we should really cherish because things like

547
00:34:16,200 --> 00:34:17,200
this don't happen often.

548
00:34:17,200 --> 00:34:20,840
And we didn't even talk about Joe Burrow and the season he had.

549
00:34:20,840 --> 00:34:21,840
Well said.

550
00:34:21,840 --> 00:34:26,480
The fact that we have so many excellent quarterbacks to watch in the AFC is yes annoying because

551
00:34:26,480 --> 00:34:33,400
we want Josh Allen to win the Super Bowl every year, but it is as a sports fan really special.

552
00:34:33,400 --> 00:34:34,400
It's really cool.

553
00:34:34,400 --> 00:34:36,040
I mean, listen, he's like, what is he?

554
00:34:36,040 --> 00:34:37,760
He's like a Lajuan.

555
00:34:37,760 --> 00:34:39,160
My home's is Jordan.

556
00:34:39,160 --> 00:34:40,160
Yeah.

557
00:34:40,160 --> 00:34:41,160
Like Lamar's Barkley.

558
00:34:41,160 --> 00:34:43,800
Like every sport has this generation.

559
00:34:43,800 --> 00:34:44,800
Yeah.

560
00:34:44,800 --> 00:34:45,800
Exactly.

561
00:34:45,800 --> 00:34:46,800
Right.

562
00:34:46,800 --> 00:34:47,800
So yeah, it's it's it's cool.

563
00:34:47,800 --> 00:34:48,800
It's it's cool to be a fan.

564
00:34:48,800 --> 00:34:53,560
Well, and on top of that, and just kind of extend it beyond the quarterbacks to also be

565
00:34:53,560 --> 00:34:59,600
kind of in our kind of prime football watching years to see the likes of Derek Henry, Saquon

566
00:34:59,600 --> 00:35:05,400
Barkley, even like players like Joe Mixon, Justin Jefferson, you know, like there are

567
00:35:05,400 --> 00:35:12,200
some absolute luminaries in the sport right now who were watching in within the middle

568
00:35:12,200 --> 00:35:14,080
of their Hall of Fame campaigns.

569
00:35:14,080 --> 00:35:15,080
Exactly.

570
00:35:15,080 --> 00:35:17,520
And I would add to that too.

571
00:35:17,520 --> 00:35:23,480
In an era where offensive line play has taken an absolute nosedive in this matchup

572
00:35:23,480 --> 00:35:29,280
that we have on Sunday, arguably two of the best offensive lines in the league, particularly

573
00:35:29,280 --> 00:35:30,280
in the run game.

574
00:35:30,280 --> 00:35:32,720
And they do both do it in such different ways.

575
00:35:32,720 --> 00:35:38,080
Like we haven't really talked about about how fancy the Ravens run game is.

576
00:35:38,080 --> 00:35:39,080
Right.

577
00:35:39,080 --> 00:35:40,080
It's very fancy.

578
00:35:40,080 --> 00:35:42,920
It's very bougie, very bougie.

579
00:35:42,920 --> 00:35:47,280
And then the Buffalo Bills, which is just like, I know they do a whole bunch of different

580
00:35:47,280 --> 00:35:49,840
stuff and they're very multiple in the run game.

581
00:35:49,840 --> 00:35:55,920
But like their identity has really become we're going to out physical you, whereas the Ravens

582
00:35:55,920 --> 00:35:58,440
are going to outsmart you, right?

583
00:35:58,440 --> 00:36:04,280
And it's just it's a fascinating juxtaposition of schemes and to watch it play out like again,

584
00:36:04,280 --> 00:36:09,040
so much about this game to be excited about anxiety levels aside, rooting interests aside.

585
00:36:09,040 --> 00:36:13,200
There's a lot of good stuff, a lot of good stuff that folks are going to see on Sunday.

586
00:36:13,200 --> 00:36:20,280
As a young man, as a teenager, I used to play a variation of basketball that my friends

587
00:36:20,280 --> 00:36:23,240
and I aptly named Barnball.

588
00:36:23,240 --> 00:36:27,440
And it basically was a highly physical version of basketball.

589
00:36:27,440 --> 00:36:29,560
It was almost tackle basketball.

590
00:36:29,560 --> 00:36:33,160
Like you could, there you could almost get, there was no penalties, no fouls, no, there

591
00:36:33,160 --> 00:36:37,120
was like literally nothing that was kind of off limits.

592
00:36:37,120 --> 00:36:40,520
That is how the Buffalo Bills run the football.

593
00:36:40,520 --> 00:36:41,520
Where I like.

594
00:36:41,520 --> 00:36:47,160
Yeah, whereas it's just very much like whoever the biggest, strongest bully is, is going

595
00:36:47,160 --> 00:36:49,520
to do the damage.

596
00:36:49,520 --> 00:36:51,920
And then like use it's so fancy.

597
00:36:51,920 --> 00:36:55,440
The Baltimore Ravens, their scheme is about misdirection.

598
00:36:55,440 --> 00:37:02,680
And it's like watching it's like watching David Blaine is their offensive, you know,

599
00:37:02,680 --> 00:37:05,360
design, because you just like, I don't understand how this is happening.

600
00:37:05,360 --> 00:37:06,360
What is happening right now?

601
00:37:06,360 --> 00:37:07,600
How does he have my card?

602
00:37:07,600 --> 00:37:09,360
Where did he pull that from?

603
00:37:09,360 --> 00:37:14,080
Watching the bills is like your uncle Dave doing close in magic after a 30 rack of natty

604
00:37:14,080 --> 00:37:17,520
Isis, you know, like where it's like, you don't know.

605
00:37:17,520 --> 00:37:18,520
There's a quarter.

606
00:37:18,520 --> 00:37:23,760
Like drops it as he goes, but like somehow it's still endearing.

607
00:37:23,760 --> 00:37:29,160
Like that's not to say it's bad, but it's different and it's very much like right in

608
00:37:29,160 --> 00:37:30,160
your face.

609
00:37:30,160 --> 00:37:32,600
Exactly, you know exactly what's going on.

610
00:37:32,600 --> 00:37:36,520
Nothing to be amazed or wowed by it's just it's going to bully you.

611
00:37:36,520 --> 00:37:39,040
So yeah, that's my summary of these rushing attacks.

612
00:37:39,040 --> 00:37:40,560
It's going to be incredible.

613
00:37:40,560 --> 00:37:41,560
It's going to be incredible, man.

614
00:37:41,560 --> 00:37:42,560
I'm so afraid.

615
00:37:42,560 --> 00:37:45,360
It's going to be okay.

616
00:37:45,360 --> 00:37:49,280
I don't want to do a pot if they lose in the division around again.

617
00:37:49,280 --> 00:37:51,360
Dude, we have to.

618
00:37:51,360 --> 00:37:53,440
This is what we signed up for.

619
00:37:53,440 --> 00:37:59,960
But I mean, listen, we have talked about we've talked at length about why this Baltimore

620
00:37:59,960 --> 00:38:05,280
Ravens offense is a tough matchup for the the bill's defense.

621
00:38:05,280 --> 00:38:08,000
And we've talked vice versa about the other way too.

622
00:38:08,000 --> 00:38:16,320
JJ, if the bills come out on top in this game to you, what three things would you expect

623
00:38:16,320 --> 00:38:21,760
to happen in order to be like, oh yeah, the bills won that game?

624
00:38:21,760 --> 00:38:24,480
What three things do you think need to happen?

625
00:38:24,480 --> 00:38:27,360
Wow, on the spot.

626
00:38:27,360 --> 00:38:33,000
One, bills win or win the turnover battle plus something even plus one in the turnover

627
00:38:33,000 --> 00:38:34,000
battle.

628
00:38:34,000 --> 00:38:35,400
They get an extra set.

629
00:38:35,400 --> 00:38:38,200
They get an extra drive for Josh Allen.

630
00:38:38,200 --> 00:38:43,520
Two, Derek Henry under 100 yards rushing.

631
00:38:43,520 --> 00:38:50,280
And then three, Josh Allen completes passes to more than seven people.

632
00:38:50,280 --> 00:38:52,400
Seven or more people.

633
00:38:52,400 --> 00:38:57,000
That's been a bellwether statistic of our yeah, of our pod.

634
00:38:57,000 --> 00:38:58,000
It absolutely has.

635
00:38:58,000 --> 00:38:59,000
Yeah.

636
00:38:59,000 --> 00:39:00,280
I'll give you my three.

637
00:39:00,280 --> 00:39:02,080
And I just thought of them on the spot.

638
00:39:02,080 --> 00:39:06,040
James Cook, 20 plus touches.

639
00:39:06,040 --> 00:39:12,640
I think if James Cook is a focal point for this, this Buffalo Bill's offense, that gives

640
00:39:12,640 --> 00:39:17,800
them an answer to what is otherwise an overwhelming Baltimore Ravens defense.

641
00:39:17,800 --> 00:39:24,120
And those touches don't JJ necessarily need to be in the in the run game.

642
00:39:24,120 --> 00:39:30,640
The bills running backs this season lead the league in receptions that have been for 10

643
00:39:30,640 --> 00:39:34,800
yards or more this season, more than any other team in the league.

644
00:39:34,800 --> 00:39:40,880
And out of all of the, all of the things that the Baltimore Ravens defense does well, defending

645
00:39:40,880 --> 00:39:46,120
running backs leaking out from the backfield is one of the things they have struggled with

646
00:39:46,120 --> 00:39:50,200
the most this season, their middle of the pack when it comes to defensive efficiency

647
00:39:50,200 --> 00:39:53,640
and defending running backs on those particular plays.

648
00:39:53,640 --> 00:39:58,520
So if you're the Buffalo Bills and you're running this, these four by one sets, right?

649
00:39:58,520 --> 00:40:03,080
And you've got a running back in the backfield, you are creating a lot of confusion for this

650
00:40:03,080 --> 00:40:05,000
Baltimore Ravens defense.

651
00:40:05,000 --> 00:40:10,640
So for me, it is James Cook, 20 or more, 20 or more touches.

652
00:40:10,640 --> 00:40:13,120
And again, not all in the run game.

653
00:40:13,120 --> 00:40:14,120
Okay.

654
00:40:14,120 --> 00:40:17,440
Number two, Ty Johnson has a touchdown.

655
00:40:17,440 --> 00:40:23,040
If Ty Johnson has a touchdown, many of his touchdowns have come off of explosives in

656
00:40:23,040 --> 00:40:25,000
the passing game, right?

657
00:40:25,000 --> 00:40:29,600
If Ty Johnson has a touchdown, that tells me that the Bills are cooking at a multitude

658
00:40:29,600 --> 00:40:34,960
of levels and that Josh is seeing the field in a way that he needs to where all of his

659
00:40:34,960 --> 00:40:38,160
options are very clear to him.

660
00:40:38,160 --> 00:40:45,920
And then number three, the Buffalo Bills defense, Sax Lamar Jackson, three or more times.

661
00:40:45,920 --> 00:40:46,920
Yes.

662
00:40:46,920 --> 00:40:52,200
I think, so this is something the Bills have actually had success with, not in the beginning

663
00:40:52,200 --> 00:40:54,400
of the season, not in the first matchup.

664
00:40:54,400 --> 00:41:00,480
But the Bills have had success in the past getting and generating pressure on Lamar Jackson.

665
00:41:00,480 --> 00:41:06,040
Now this season, teams are blitzing the hell out of Lamar out of pure desperation.

666
00:41:06,040 --> 00:41:08,960
I don't think the Bills are going to do that.

667
00:41:08,960 --> 00:41:11,480
But listen, man, we didn't have Bernard in that first game.

668
00:41:11,480 --> 00:41:13,400
We didn't have Milano in that first game.

669
00:41:13,400 --> 00:41:15,800
We didn't have Taryn Johnson in that first game.

670
00:41:15,800 --> 00:41:22,040
I do think there is a world where Milano is basically the dedicated Lamar Jackson guy.

671
00:41:22,040 --> 00:41:25,480
And as a result, he's just getting penetration on some pure pass rush.

672
00:41:25,480 --> 00:41:27,320
So God, I hope so.

673
00:41:27,320 --> 00:41:31,280
Well, I'll say I'll say this about, you know, I thought that that's a good that's a good

674
00:41:31,280 --> 00:41:32,280
section.

675
00:41:32,280 --> 00:41:35,640
It's good to kind of get our thoughts on board of what we think the most critical pieces

676
00:41:35,640 --> 00:41:37,640
are.

677
00:41:37,640 --> 00:41:46,760
The Bills defense has to have gap discipline like the Ravens rush defense does to counter

678
00:41:46,760 --> 00:41:47,960
their read option plays.

679
00:41:47,960 --> 00:41:48,960
You just got it.

680
00:41:48,960 --> 00:41:52,160
You just got to know what your assignment is and stick to it and not like lose yourself

681
00:41:52,160 --> 00:41:53,880
to the eye candy.

682
00:41:53,880 --> 00:41:59,160
And then the other thing that I noticed, especially in the multiple games against the Steelers,

683
00:41:59,160 --> 00:42:00,400
the end line defenders.

684
00:42:00,400 --> 00:42:03,840
TJ Watt was doing this the whole game in the wild card round.

685
00:42:03,840 --> 00:42:06,880
He was crashing on Derek Henry every snap.

686
00:42:06,880 --> 00:42:10,000
And it's enough so much that it looked like that was his instruction.

687
00:42:10,000 --> 00:42:12,280
Go for Derek Henry every every snap.

688
00:42:12,280 --> 00:42:13,280
He's your guy.

689
00:42:13,280 --> 00:42:14,280
Let everyone's assignment.

690
00:42:14,280 --> 00:42:15,280
Yeah.

691
00:42:15,280 --> 00:42:16,640
Let everybody else worry about Lamar.

692
00:42:16,640 --> 00:42:22,600
The problem was the end line defenders who were the worry about a Lamar guys were eating

693
00:42:22,600 --> 00:42:25,320
the fake to Derek Henry.

694
00:42:25,320 --> 00:42:31,000
And so you have, you know, her big and TJ Watt both tackling an empty handed Derek Henry

695
00:42:31,000 --> 00:42:33,120
while Lamar runs for 40 yards.

696
00:42:33,120 --> 00:42:38,560
So I think that in order to play this game the right way, whomever the end line defenders

697
00:42:38,560 --> 00:42:45,800
are for the Bills need to be edge priority one, crash priority two, even if you absolutely

698
00:42:45,800 --> 00:42:51,080
believe Derek Henry is getting that ball, you do not let an empty handed Lamar Jackson

699
00:42:51,080 --> 00:42:52,440
break contain on you.

700
00:42:52,440 --> 00:42:57,560
You just can't because that's every team this this year has has fallen to the same thing,

701
00:42:57,560 --> 00:42:59,600
which is read option.

702
00:42:59,600 --> 00:43:04,880
End line defender thinks the handoff has gone to Derek Henry and literally runs right past

703
00:43:04,880 --> 00:43:08,320
the face of Lamar Jackson who's rushing the ball around the edge.

704
00:43:08,320 --> 00:43:09,320
So that's one.

705
00:43:09,320 --> 00:43:11,440
And then two is for lineup.

706
00:43:11,440 --> 00:43:19,360
I like a four, three, four kind of smooth Dequan Oliver, Oliver and Russo frontline

707
00:43:19,360 --> 00:43:25,520
with three linebackers Milano Bernard and Williams and Cole Bishop as a box safety.

708
00:43:25,520 --> 00:43:28,720
And then you you have a single high safety and wrap and let Doug listen.

709
00:43:28,720 --> 00:43:30,360
Benford locked down the outside receivers.

710
00:43:30,360 --> 00:43:32,880
What do you think of that?

711
00:43:32,880 --> 00:43:35,520
I I mean, I think it's great.

712
00:43:35,520 --> 00:43:36,640
I don't know.

713
00:43:36,640 --> 00:43:38,400
I don't know that they're going to do that.

714
00:43:38,400 --> 00:43:39,400
I don't think they will.

715
00:43:39,400 --> 00:43:42,280
I don't think they're going to run three linebackers and a box safety.

716
00:43:42,280 --> 00:43:46,320
But I think that would be effective about shutting down the run game.

717
00:43:46,320 --> 00:43:47,320
It would be.

718
00:43:47,320 --> 00:43:49,240
But man, it would come in a huge expense.

719
00:43:49,240 --> 00:43:50,240
Oh, yeah.

720
00:43:50,240 --> 00:43:54,200
The risk would be massive that somebody's got Bateman, especially like Bateman, who's

721
00:43:54,200 --> 00:43:57,920
tall, long, rangy and fast is going to get behind you.

722
00:43:57,920 --> 00:44:04,400
Well, and we've seen the bills get burned when they have and the very future times they've

723
00:44:04,400 --> 00:44:06,920
had to sell out to stop the run.

724
00:44:06,920 --> 00:44:07,920
We saw that.

725
00:44:07,920 --> 00:44:10,560
I mean, listen, we saw that notably in the LA game, right?

726
00:44:10,560 --> 00:44:16,400
Against the Rams where they just had to sell out to keep Kyron Williams contained and Nakuha

727
00:44:16,400 --> 00:44:19,280
and Cup just did damage once they got behind our guys.

728
00:44:19,280 --> 00:44:21,080
I mean, this is the thing.

729
00:44:21,080 --> 00:44:28,160
We have great swarming ability on this defense, but we do not have great team speed outside

730
00:44:28,160 --> 00:44:31,880
of I would say Bishop and Kyra Elam, right?

731
00:44:31,880 --> 00:44:37,360
So a lot of the stuff that we've been doing with rotating and disguising coverage has

732
00:44:37,360 --> 00:44:40,200
been effective.

733
00:44:40,200 --> 00:44:44,800
But when it comes to stopping the run because we have less tools in our tool belt, it comes

734
00:44:44,800 --> 00:44:49,520
at a cost like this is either or type of defense, like it's either going to stop the

735
00:44:49,520 --> 00:44:52,760
run or it's either going to stop the pass.

736
00:44:52,760 --> 00:44:57,760
And I think in this game, the bills are going to have to choose at the right time situationally,

737
00:44:57,760 --> 00:45:01,560
which again, I think Babbage and McDermott can do it.

738
00:45:01,560 --> 00:45:07,680
I would be surprised if Derek Henry rushed for 200 yards of this game, right?

739
00:45:07,680 --> 00:45:10,840
Or 198 yards in this game or whatever he did in the first week.

740
00:45:10,840 --> 00:45:12,280
I'd be shocked.

741
00:45:12,280 --> 00:45:18,160
So I do think the bills are going to have some answers, but scheme only goes so far.

742
00:45:18,160 --> 00:45:23,240
And I do think there's going to be those either or propositions depending on game script that

743
00:45:23,240 --> 00:45:24,920
the Ravens are going to leverage properly.

744
00:45:24,920 --> 00:45:27,800
Like they're too good not to find themselves in those situations too.

745
00:45:27,800 --> 00:45:30,440
So it's going to be interesting, man.

746
00:45:30,440 --> 00:45:33,400
Sure, it will be.

747
00:45:33,400 --> 00:45:38,520
Are you do you have any do you buy into any of the Lamar Jackson Derek Henry have never

748
00:45:38,520 --> 00:45:41,640
played a game less than 22 degrees stuff?

749
00:45:41,640 --> 00:45:42,960
I think it's I think it's dumb.

750
00:45:42,960 --> 00:45:43,960
They play in Baltimore.

751
00:45:43,960 --> 00:45:44,960
Baltimore is cold.

752
00:45:44,960 --> 00:45:45,960
It's a cold weather city.

753
00:45:45,960 --> 00:45:48,400
They play outdoors like Derek Henry.

754
00:45:48,400 --> 00:45:52,480
I get was in Tennessee before this and played his ball in Alabama.

755
00:45:52,480 --> 00:45:55,360
That that dude is built for any kind of weather.

756
00:45:55,360 --> 00:45:56,360
I think it's nuts.

757
00:45:56,360 --> 00:45:58,200
Like Lamar is three and one.

758
00:45:58,200 --> 00:46:03,000
I think in sub 20 degree weather, Josh is nine and one, but like they're going to be

759
00:46:03,000 --> 00:46:04,000
fine.

760
00:46:04,000 --> 00:46:05,000
They're going to be fine.

761
00:46:05,000 --> 00:46:06,000
It's I'm not worried about those two.

762
00:46:06,000 --> 00:46:07,000
That's fair.

763
00:46:07,000 --> 00:46:13,600
And then also, do you have any commentary on the Buffalo bills signing the former Baltimore

764
00:46:13,600 --> 00:46:17,920
Ravens quarterback to simulate Lamar Jackson practice?

765
00:46:17,920 --> 00:46:20,720
I mean, I mean, Rich, what's his name?

766
00:46:20,720 --> 00:46:21,720
Anthony.

767
00:46:21,720 --> 00:46:22,720
Anthony Webb.

768
00:46:22,720 --> 00:46:23,720
Was that his name?

769
00:46:23,720 --> 00:46:24,720
No.

770
00:46:24,720 --> 00:46:25,720
Taylor Anthony something.

771
00:46:25,720 --> 00:46:27,720
It might not even be Anthony.

772
00:46:27,720 --> 00:46:32,440
We might just not be saying his name.

773
00:46:32,440 --> 00:46:34,800
That guy.

774
00:46:34,800 --> 00:46:37,600
I think it's fine.

775
00:46:37,600 --> 00:46:43,360
Like the reality is the only guy who can probably Sim Lamar is running your first team offense

776
00:46:43,360 --> 00:46:44,360
in Buffalo.

777
00:46:44,360 --> 00:46:49,880
So unless you want to put him out there with the scout team, yeah, you got to find someone

778
00:46:49,880 --> 00:46:51,560
that can that can emulate this.

779
00:46:51,560 --> 00:46:53,600
And that was the guy on the market that can.

780
00:46:53,600 --> 00:46:56,240
But McDermott's been very real in his press conferences.

781
00:46:56,240 --> 00:46:58,720
He's like, yeah, you can't really emulate Lamar.

782
00:46:58,720 --> 00:46:59,720
You know what I mean?

783
00:46:59,720 --> 00:47:01,120
He's like, we're going to do our best.

784
00:47:01,120 --> 00:47:06,720
But yeah, this is not this is not going to be what it's going to actually be like.

785
00:47:06,720 --> 00:47:11,640
You know, I would be far less optimistic JJ if these two teams did not already face each

786
00:47:11,640 --> 00:47:12,880
other this season.

787
00:47:12,880 --> 00:47:16,520
I would say if this was the first time these two squads were going up, I would put the

788
00:47:16,520 --> 00:47:19,240
advantage clearly with Baltimore.

789
00:47:19,240 --> 00:47:23,440
But because the bills have seen this already and because the bills weren't healthy the

790
00:47:23,440 --> 00:47:29,760
first time around and now this one's in Buffalo, there are critical points in both game script

791
00:47:29,760 --> 00:47:31,720
and in strategy.

792
00:47:31,720 --> 00:47:35,800
I think that flip a couple of knobs turn a couple of knobs in the bills favor in this

793
00:47:35,800 --> 00:47:36,800
game.

794
00:47:36,800 --> 00:47:41,000
I am rooting I'm rooting for a really good game and obviously I'm rooting for the bills

795
00:47:41,000 --> 00:47:42,200
to win.

796
00:47:42,200 --> 00:47:47,680
But I'm also against my type really optimistic for the bills in this game.

797
00:47:47,680 --> 00:47:48,680
Good.

798
00:47:48,680 --> 00:47:49,680
No, I like that.

799
00:47:49,680 --> 00:47:52,320
The quarterback we were looking for was Anthony Brown.

800
00:47:52,320 --> 00:47:53,320
Anthony Brown.

801
00:47:53,320 --> 00:47:54,320
He was right on one thing.

802
00:47:54,320 --> 00:47:56,760
He was also a former bills quarterback from preseason.

803
00:47:56,760 --> 00:47:58,320
Get the hell out of town.

804
00:47:58,320 --> 00:48:01,400
No, he was on the roster briefly.

805
00:48:01,400 --> 00:48:08,360
In related news, the Buffalo bills have also signed a moose to run the ball and simulate

806
00:48:08,360 --> 00:48:11,840
Derek Henry, a full active Canadian moose.

807
00:48:11,840 --> 00:48:16,040
I thought it would just be like a grizzly bear riding a Jeep.

808
00:48:16,040 --> 00:48:18,320
A grizzly bear on cocaine.

809
00:48:18,320 --> 00:48:19,720
Jesus Christ.

810
00:48:19,720 --> 00:48:20,720
Derek Henry.

811
00:48:20,720 --> 00:48:21,720
Oh God.

812
00:48:21,720 --> 00:48:25,920
I think the bills have slowed like we only remember the bad stuff.

813
00:48:25,920 --> 00:48:27,960
We have slowed Derek Henry down before.

814
00:48:27,960 --> 00:48:30,440
They have contained him.

815
00:48:30,440 --> 00:48:31,440
Just not.

816
00:48:31,440 --> 00:48:36,520
He's in such an in an ideal environment for his style of running and he's got the ideal

817
00:48:36,520 --> 00:48:41,320
partner in Lamar Jackson, which for all of you, internet trolls out there, just because

818
00:48:41,320 --> 00:48:45,080
Lamar Jackson has Derek Henry doesn't take away from Lamar Jackson.

819
00:48:45,080 --> 00:48:46,760
Doesn't make him less of a quarterback.

820
00:48:46,760 --> 00:48:47,760
Please stop with that.

821
00:48:47,760 --> 00:48:48,760
I know.

822
00:48:48,760 --> 00:48:49,760
Oh my God.

823
00:48:49,760 --> 00:48:50,760
It's so nuts.

824
00:48:50,760 --> 00:48:51,760
You're good players.

825
00:48:51,760 --> 00:48:54,080
You shouldn't get the MVP.

826
00:48:54,080 --> 00:48:55,080
I don't know.

827
00:48:55,080 --> 00:48:59,640
It's just people standing so hard for Josh Allen, which I'm the first person to understand.

828
00:48:59,640 --> 00:49:00,640
Yes.

829
00:49:00,640 --> 00:49:06,720
I've put a lot of trolley content out there in favor of Josh Allen winning the MVP, especially

830
00:49:06,720 --> 00:49:12,240
when that nonsense about Joe Burrow, who, I mean, listen, Burrow had a great statistical

831
00:49:12,240 --> 00:49:17,440
season, but that dude had to chuck it up every game because his team stunk.

832
00:49:17,440 --> 00:49:20,600
He had to throw it 50 times every game.

833
00:49:20,600 --> 00:49:25,480
If Josh Allen was in a situation where he had to throw the ball 46 times every game,

834
00:49:25,480 --> 00:49:30,280
he would also be putting up 7,000 yards and 25 touchdowns, you know, over a four week

835
00:49:30,280 --> 00:49:31,280
span.

836
00:49:31,280 --> 00:49:32,280
Yes.

837
00:49:32,280 --> 00:49:36,520
If Josh and Lamar played on dog shit teams like Cincinnati, they would absolutely have

838
00:49:36,520 --> 00:49:38,320
that kind of opportunity too.

839
00:49:38,320 --> 00:49:44,880
Listen, I'm not calling Joe Burrow like a volume shooter, like in the NBA, but there was opportunity

840
00:49:44,880 --> 00:49:48,800
because of the volume that he had to put those things up.

841
00:49:48,800 --> 00:49:52,240
I'm far more impressed with Allen and Lamar season.

842
00:49:52,240 --> 00:49:55,920
And to that extent, Baker Mayfield season too, even though they had no running game

843
00:49:55,920 --> 00:50:00,640
in Tampa Bay for large stretches, even as good as Bucky Irving was this year.

844
00:50:00,640 --> 00:50:04,040
So and he had to do a lot with his arm and his legs as well.

845
00:50:04,040 --> 00:50:09,480
But Joe Burrow, great statistical season, maybe the fourth, fifth or even sixth most

846
00:50:09,480 --> 00:50:11,720
impressive QB performance though this year.

847
00:50:11,720 --> 00:50:13,920
Like there were guys clearly above him.

848
00:50:13,920 --> 00:50:14,920
Yeah, fair.

849
00:50:14,920 --> 00:50:17,200
I like I put Jared Goff above him.

850
00:50:17,200 --> 00:50:18,280
I would go there.

851
00:50:18,280 --> 00:50:20,400
You talk about flipping a script, right?

852
00:50:20,400 --> 00:50:25,240
Like Goff and every every weakness that dude has had throughout his career seems to have

853
00:50:25,240 --> 00:50:30,000
been solved by Ben Johnson and then just the maturity that the golf has shown in Detroit

854
00:50:30,000 --> 00:50:31,800
just while so much.

855
00:50:31,800 --> 00:50:32,800
So much.

856
00:50:32,800 --> 00:50:33,800
Yeah, so much.

857
00:50:33,800 --> 00:50:34,800
All right, let's let's do some predictions.

858
00:50:34,800 --> 00:50:35,800
Sure to go wrong.

859
00:50:35,800 --> 00:50:37,640
Oh, God, what do you got for this one?

860
00:50:37,640 --> 00:50:38,640
You start.

861
00:50:38,640 --> 00:50:41,080
This is where my optimism comes crashing down, JJ.

862
00:50:41,080 --> 00:50:42,080
All right.

863
00:50:42,080 --> 00:50:49,520
So the game to me for whatever reason opened up at one and a half in favor of the bills.

864
00:50:49,520 --> 00:50:54,520
And while I get home field advantage, I thought pretty immediately that the line on this should

865
00:50:54,520 --> 00:50:56,520
have been one and a half for the Ravens.

866
00:50:56,520 --> 00:51:01,040
Well, within like two hours that betting opened, the line did shift to the Ravens.

867
00:51:01,040 --> 00:51:05,840
So as we speak, right now the Ravens are favored by a point and a half.

868
00:51:05,840 --> 00:51:09,320
The over under for this game is 51 and a half.

869
00:51:09,320 --> 00:51:13,560
That feels a little high, especially given the weather conditions and the propensity that

870
00:51:13,560 --> 00:51:17,040
we feel like both of these teams are going to have for running the ball.

871
00:51:17,040 --> 00:51:19,240
But I mean, we're things have happened.

872
00:51:19,240 --> 00:51:24,560
So JJ, here's my final score prediction.

873
00:51:24,560 --> 00:51:28,120
I think Buffalo is going to course correct enough from earlier in the season.

874
00:51:28,120 --> 00:51:35,360
I think the that the bills defense will have enough answers to get stops in those condensed

875
00:51:35,360 --> 00:51:40,760
windows that I was talking about earlier, and I think the Buffalo bills are going to

876
00:51:40,760 --> 00:51:41,760
pull this one out.

877
00:51:41,760 --> 00:51:44,440
I think weather is going to be a factor.

878
00:51:44,440 --> 00:51:46,880
But I think ultimately bills pull this one out.

879
00:51:46,880 --> 00:51:51,280
I'm going to go bills 28 Ravens 24.

880
00:51:51,280 --> 00:51:57,280
Oh, man, I know you so well as you are because I keep track of these as I was typing in the

881
00:51:57,280 --> 00:51:59,720
running showliner.

882
00:51:59,720 --> 00:52:02,640
I wrote Dan bills 27 24.

883
00:52:02,640 --> 00:52:04,360
So I was off my point.

884
00:52:04,360 --> 00:52:05,360
There you are.

885
00:52:05,360 --> 00:52:07,400
I mean, listen, you know me.

886
00:52:07,400 --> 00:52:10,560
I don't ever like to predict bills 30 point game.

887
00:52:10,560 --> 00:52:14,440
I just whenever I do, they get trounced.

888
00:52:14,440 --> 00:52:17,680
And I always undersell the defense with point total as well.

889
00:52:17,680 --> 00:52:18,800
I'm like, oh, they're going to give up.

890
00:52:18,800 --> 00:52:20,600
They're going to give up over 20 pretty easily.

891
00:52:20,600 --> 00:52:21,880
So yeah, yeah.

892
00:52:21,880 --> 00:52:25,560
But that's where I'm at 28 24 bills bills moving on to the AFC champion.

893
00:52:25,560 --> 00:52:33,200
I think that both teams are going to try to lean on their game script and the run so heavily

894
00:52:33,200 --> 00:52:38,320
that this game is going to have a restricted amount of possessions.

895
00:52:38,320 --> 00:52:40,080
And I also have the bills pulling it out.

896
00:52:40,080 --> 00:52:45,160
I also have it being a kind of a cardiac contest and everybody freaking out the whole way.

897
00:52:45,160 --> 00:52:47,080
But I have the bills winning 23 17.

898
00:52:47,080 --> 00:52:49,920
Oh, so you got a much lower scoring affair.

899
00:52:49,920 --> 00:52:55,880
Okay, hitting the under and just scraping this thing out kind of last last possession

900
00:52:55,880 --> 00:52:56,880
type game.

901
00:52:56,880 --> 00:52:59,200
I mean, I could see that man.

902
00:52:59,200 --> 00:53:03,160
I mean, if you're not going to give your best shot, particularly on defense is the bills

903
00:53:03,160 --> 00:53:05,240
right now, like, when are you going to do it?

904
00:53:05,240 --> 00:53:06,240
Right.

905
00:53:06,240 --> 00:53:10,680
So I could see them summoning like a masterclass for this one game.

906
00:53:10,680 --> 00:53:11,680
Absolutely.

907
00:53:11,680 --> 00:53:16,440
All right, JJ, I got I got two props for you.

908
00:53:16,440 --> 00:53:23,560
Over under and this is combined for both teams over under two and a half total turnovers

909
00:53:23,560 --> 00:53:24,880
for both teams.

910
00:53:24,880 --> 00:53:28,960
The bills have done an exceptional job taking care of the ball this year and the Baltimore

911
00:53:28,960 --> 00:53:32,240
Ravens are plus six and turnover differential.

912
00:53:32,240 --> 00:53:36,680
And notably Lamar Jackson only throw thrown four picks this season, right?

913
00:53:36,680 --> 00:53:42,400
But whether it'll be a factor, these are two defenses that need to turn the opponent over

914
00:53:42,400 --> 00:53:45,000
and they try to on every possession.

915
00:53:45,000 --> 00:53:46,560
So what's going to give JJ?

916
00:53:46,560 --> 00:53:48,800
Are these offenses finally going to cough it up?

917
00:53:48,800 --> 00:53:54,120
Or are these defenses going to fail to generate the volume of turnovers we're used to seeing?

918
00:53:54,120 --> 00:53:57,480
I think that the defenses will generate turnovers.

919
00:53:57,480 --> 00:53:58,480
But I'm taking the under.

920
00:53:58,480 --> 00:54:01,040
I don't see there being three turnovers in this game.

921
00:54:01,040 --> 00:54:07,920
I think two is probably the cap because both both offenses are exceptional at maintaining

922
00:54:07,920 --> 00:54:11,480
the priority, which is the possession of the football.

923
00:54:11,480 --> 00:54:12,800
So I'm going to hit the under.

924
00:54:12,800 --> 00:54:18,360
I'm going to say the probably will probably see two turnovers, hopefully both by the Ravens.

925
00:54:18,360 --> 00:54:21,800
But I could see maybe one each for the teams.

926
00:54:21,800 --> 00:54:24,920
And so yeah, I think that it's I'm going to go ahead and hit the under.

927
00:54:24,920 --> 00:54:26,480
Where are you at with it?

928
00:54:26,480 --> 00:54:28,160
I'm going to take the over.

929
00:54:28,160 --> 00:54:33,200
And reason being is because I think it needs to be over if the bills are going to generate

930
00:54:33,200 --> 00:54:36,040
those extra possessions for Josh Allen.

931
00:54:36,040 --> 00:54:37,280
OK, yeah.

932
00:54:37,280 --> 00:54:38,840
All right.

933
00:54:38,840 --> 00:54:46,600
I'm going to lean back into your your three things that need to happen over under 2.5

934
00:54:46,600 --> 00:54:48,760
sacks on Lamar Jackson.

935
00:54:48,760 --> 00:54:56,560
Again, I'm going to hope for the over at this particular point, though I don't listen, man,

936
00:54:56,560 --> 00:55:03,000
we have seen at Oliver when when left one on one be an absolute game record.

937
00:55:03,000 --> 00:55:07,400
And I actually think Baltimore, based on the way they play, is a squad that is going to

938
00:55:07,400 --> 00:55:08,880
leave him one on one.

939
00:55:08,880 --> 00:55:14,000
I think Greg Rousseau is has been ascendant all season.

940
00:55:14,000 --> 00:55:18,600
And if there is a game that you need him to show out is this game for sure.

941
00:55:18,600 --> 00:55:21,080
And I think, listen, I think Milano is going to have something to say at the end of the

942
00:55:21,080 --> 00:55:25,480
day about generating pressure in the backfield on on Lamar Jackson.

943
00:55:25,480 --> 00:55:29,680
So I'm going to say over and I'm going to say Rousseau gets one.

944
00:55:29,680 --> 00:55:31,440
I'm going to say Oliver gets one.

945
00:55:31,440 --> 00:55:32,880
I'm going to say Milano gets one.

946
00:55:32,880 --> 00:55:33,880
Oh, that's good.

947
00:55:33,880 --> 00:55:37,480
You're giving the you're giving the player stats to.

948
00:55:37,480 --> 00:55:38,480
Yep.

949
00:55:38,480 --> 00:55:39,480
I like it.

950
00:55:39,480 --> 00:55:42,320
I'm also going to go with with over.

951
00:55:42,320 --> 00:55:46,840
And I think I just have a different idea of who the players would be.

952
00:55:46,840 --> 00:55:50,160
I've got Von Miller with one.

953
00:55:50,160 --> 00:55:51,560
Oh, Von Miller.

954
00:55:51,560 --> 00:55:55,800
Me and my uncle Joe, we've got this awesome text chain every game day.

955
00:55:55,800 --> 00:56:00,520
And I you have never met a man, trust me, that shits more on Von Miller than this guy

956
00:56:00,520 --> 00:56:01,520
does.

957
00:56:01,520 --> 00:56:04,320
Like he just he's just like Von Miller, what a waste of money.

958
00:56:04,320 --> 00:56:05,320
Right.

959
00:56:05,320 --> 00:56:06,320
Yeah.

960
00:56:06,320 --> 00:56:09,080
The end of the season incentive he got for that sack on Joe.

961
00:56:09,080 --> 00:56:13,400
I think it was I think it was he's a Drake man.

962
00:56:13,400 --> 00:56:15,720
It wasn't Joe Millen at that point, I don't think.

963
00:56:15,720 --> 00:56:18,520
But the 1.5 million, he's like, Brett's ridiculous.

964
00:56:18,520 --> 00:56:19,520
That's stupid.

965
00:56:19,520 --> 00:56:22,800
Like that's of course, of course, with a million and a half on the line, I could finally get

966
00:56:22,800 --> 00:56:24,720
the juice up to do it.

967
00:56:24,720 --> 00:56:28,160
No, but I think I think you see him show up and I think you need to see him show up in

968
00:56:28,160 --> 00:56:30,480
this game because I'm almost almost taking the over.

969
00:56:30,480 --> 00:56:31,880
I want them to sack Lamar Jackson.

970
00:56:31,880 --> 00:56:33,960
They can get Lamar Jackson on the ground three times.

971
00:56:33,960 --> 00:56:40,480
I think that that would be a statistical representation of a pass rush that is enough to win this

972
00:56:40,480 --> 00:56:42,120
game.

973
00:56:42,120 --> 00:56:47,960
And I think that in order for them to make a real good stretch around at this thing,

974
00:56:47,960 --> 00:56:54,360
they need two to four plays per game that you can point to, even if it's like, you know,

975
00:56:54,360 --> 00:57:01,160
kind of scraping down the line and making a like a running back, scoot it outside or

976
00:57:01,160 --> 00:57:04,720
take a different angle that ends up in a tackle for loss, even if it's not Miller, you know

977
00:57:04,720 --> 00:57:05,720
what I mean?

978
00:57:05,720 --> 00:57:09,040
Like there needs to be two to four plays per game where you can like watch the film and

979
00:57:09,040 --> 00:57:13,240
point to Von Miller having a positive impact for the defense.

980
00:57:13,240 --> 00:57:18,680
If the bills are going to make a long run into the deep playoffs and potentially a championship,

981
00:57:18,680 --> 00:57:20,840
you need to see that guy show up.

982
00:57:20,840 --> 00:57:22,080
Bonus question.

983
00:57:22,080 --> 00:57:27,480
If Von Miller has multiple sacks in this game, let's say he just gets two sacks, right?

984
00:57:27,480 --> 00:57:29,680
Is the contract worth it?

985
00:57:29,680 --> 00:57:31,520
Or these past three years worth it?

986
00:57:31,520 --> 00:57:35,440
If he gets if he gets multiple sacks in this game?

987
00:57:35,440 --> 00:57:36,440
It's not my money.

988
00:57:36,440 --> 00:57:38,640
So yeah, like, you know what I mean?

989
00:57:38,640 --> 00:57:44,080
Like, it's like, it's the kind of thing where like the bills paid so many pass rushers,

990
00:57:44,080 --> 00:57:49,160
so much money who just didn't do anything and especially didn't do anything in the playoffs

991
00:57:49,160 --> 00:57:55,000
during Sean McDermott's tenure that you there's almost no limit on the amount of money I think

992
00:57:55,000 --> 00:58:00,160
is worthwhile for sacks in the playoffs, because it's been so anemic for so many years.

993
00:58:00,160 --> 00:58:05,280
I mean, shit, if they sorry, I'm not supposed to swear on the pot.

994
00:58:05,280 --> 00:58:09,400
If Epineza gets a sack, any contract you pay him is worth it.

995
00:58:09,400 --> 00:58:11,400
Like one sack.

996
00:58:11,400 --> 00:58:13,280
So yeah, I have a feel.

997
00:58:13,280 --> 00:58:17,440
I have a feeling a draft time once we get into whenever it is we get into the off season,

998
00:58:17,440 --> 00:58:19,640
hopefully not too soon.

999
00:58:19,640 --> 00:58:23,920
I think we're going to be talking about who is the premier edge runner out there that

1000
00:58:23,920 --> 00:58:25,400
we trade the number one pick for.

1001
00:58:25,400 --> 00:58:26,400
Absolutely.

1002
00:58:26,400 --> 00:58:30,800
Do we go after Max Crosby, TJ Watt, like, because they need it, man.

1003
00:58:30,800 --> 00:58:31,800
They need the juice.

1004
00:58:31,800 --> 00:58:32,800
Who's on it?

1005
00:58:32,800 --> 00:58:33,800
Yeah.

1006
00:58:33,800 --> 00:58:39,560
The bills need a proven commodity because continuing to cast about in the bottom of the first round

1007
00:58:39,560 --> 00:58:42,160
is not is not going to find you.

1008
00:58:42,160 --> 00:58:45,120
It's not going to find you a TJ Watt or, you know, Max Crosby.

1009
00:58:45,120 --> 00:58:47,960
Although wasn't Max Crosby a fourth rounder?

1010
00:58:47,960 --> 00:58:49,640
He was a fourth rounder, I think.

1011
00:58:49,640 --> 00:58:56,640
But like arguably, arguably, the best, the best first round draft picks that Brandon

1012
00:58:56,640 --> 00:59:02,840
Bean has ever made in our in this order, Josh Allen, Stefan Diggs, and then way, way down

1013
00:59:02,840 --> 00:59:03,840
Gregor self.

1014
00:59:03,840 --> 00:59:04,840
Yeah.

1015
00:59:04,840 --> 00:59:05,840
All right.

1016
00:59:05,840 --> 00:59:09,760
So like, like he has been at his best when either picking Josh Allen or using a number

1017
00:59:09,760 --> 00:59:12,120
one on a proven commodity from another team.

1018
00:59:12,120 --> 00:59:16,440
So I wouldn't mind him doing that this year, especially because even now we'd be picking

1019
00:59:16,440 --> 00:59:21,040
somewhere deep, deep in the draft and it's, dude, there's just not, there's not going

1020
00:59:21,040 --> 00:59:24,000
to be 32 guys with a with an A group at that point.

1021
00:59:24,000 --> 00:59:29,320
I'll give up the 20, even if it's the 28th, I'll definitely give up the 32nd for, you

1022
00:59:29,320 --> 00:59:31,840
know, TJ Watt, Max Crosby, right?

1023
00:59:31,840 --> 00:59:32,840
But something.

1024
00:59:32,840 --> 00:59:33,840
Yep.

1025
00:59:33,840 --> 00:59:34,840
All right, man.

1026
00:59:34,840 --> 00:59:36,840
I got one more prop for you.

1027
00:59:36,840 --> 00:59:37,840
All right.

1028
00:59:37,840 --> 00:59:42,760
Josh Allen sacked over under one and a half times.

1029
00:59:42,760 --> 00:59:46,720
So going back to the beginning, the first game they played this season, Josh was sacked

1030
00:59:46,720 --> 00:59:49,440
three times in total.

1031
00:59:49,440 --> 00:59:52,280
He was only sacked 15 times total on the season.

1032
00:59:52,280 --> 00:59:58,080
So about a fifth 20% of the total sack production on Josh Allen came in this one game against

1033
00:59:58,080 --> 00:59:59,280
the Ravens.

1034
00:59:59,280 --> 01:00:03,040
It's a vaunted pass rush, they know how to get pressure without blitzing, though their

1035
01:00:03,040 --> 01:00:06,800
blitzes can be confounding as well when we saw in the first game and they got a lot of

1036
01:00:06,800 --> 01:00:12,800
guys that can get to the QB and they got a lot of guys that can tie up mobile QBs.

1037
01:00:12,800 --> 01:00:15,200
So does Josh go down more than once?

1038
01:00:15,200 --> 01:00:16,200
Yes, twice.

1039
01:00:16,200 --> 01:00:17,200
Yeah, you think so?

1040
01:00:17,200 --> 01:00:18,200
Yeah.

1041
01:00:18,200 --> 01:00:23,160
I mean, they just played the Denver Broncos who had the best pass rush in the league statistically

1042
01:00:23,160 --> 01:00:25,240
and he went down twice.

1043
01:00:25,240 --> 01:00:27,000
The Ravens are the third best.

1044
01:00:27,000 --> 01:00:31,440
I think they get to him at least twice.

1045
01:00:31,440 --> 01:00:34,200
I think it's twice, so definitely over one and a half.

1046
01:00:34,200 --> 01:00:35,200
Yeah, I agree.

1047
01:00:35,200 --> 01:00:36,480
I think it's going to happen again too.

1048
01:00:36,480 --> 01:00:41,120
I just think, I know Josh is unsacrable, but this defensive line is too good.

1049
01:00:41,120 --> 01:00:46,760
Well, the defensive line, I think the other piece of it is that the Ravens don't blitz

1050
01:00:46,760 --> 01:00:49,600
very often.

1051
01:00:49,600 --> 01:00:55,840
So when they do, they tend to have something dialed up that really beats whatever coverage

1052
01:00:55,840 --> 01:01:03,120
you have, like the Marlin Humphrey option blitz on that play action rollout that we

1053
01:01:03,120 --> 01:01:04,120
saw.

1054
01:01:04,120 --> 01:01:08,520
Right, like that was a sack because they out, they scheme to sack.

1055
01:01:08,520 --> 01:01:12,240
We talk all the time about wide receivers getting schemed open.

1056
01:01:12,240 --> 01:01:19,120
That was essentially a defender being schemed open to say, if your coverage person vacates

1057
01:01:19,120 --> 01:01:24,480
or goes into motion and you're alone on the edge, you run straight at Josh Allen if he

1058
01:01:24,480 --> 01:01:26,720
has the ball after the mesh point.

1059
01:01:26,720 --> 01:01:27,720
Absolutely.

1060
01:01:27,720 --> 01:01:28,720
Absolutely.

1061
01:01:28,720 --> 01:01:30,720
It's well said, well said.

1062
01:01:30,720 --> 01:01:32,080
All right, man.

1063
01:01:32,080 --> 01:01:33,080
That's it.

1064
01:01:33,080 --> 01:01:36,040
That's all we can do.

1065
01:01:36,040 --> 01:01:38,720
We've done everything that's in our power to do.

1066
01:01:38,720 --> 01:01:40,120
The rest is up to you, Bill.

1067
01:01:40,120 --> 01:01:41,120
That's right.

1068
01:01:41,120 --> 01:01:44,360
All right, so for all of you listening at home, like, share, and subscribe wherever

1069
01:01:44,360 --> 01:01:48,520
you get your podcasts, Apple, YouTube, and Spotify.

1070
01:01:48,520 --> 01:01:50,520
And as always, go Bills.

1071
01:01:50,520 --> 01:02:00,600
Bye, guys.