All right, welcome back to the Buffalo Bread podcast.
We have a matchup this week with the Buffalo Bills
and the San Francisco 49ers coming out
from the West Coast to Orchard Park on December 1st.
It's Sunday Night Football on NBC.
So those of you who absolutely love Chris Collinsworth
are gonna get a treat.
And it's gonna be an interesting show, I'm sure.
But Dan, there are some implications
about what has happened in the league
with the three games on Thanksgiving
and the one game today, as to what the results
of this game might mean for the Bills.
What do we think about it?
Just simply put, JJ, five straight AFC East championships
on the line, the Bills could be the second team this weekend
to lock up a playoff spot.
The somehow continuing to live that blessed life,
Kansas City Chiefs, were the first today
with their questionable 19 to 17 win
over the Raiders today.
But JJ, from the Bills standpoint,
because the Dolphins do what they always do,
which is lose to a good team in cold weather,
the Bills can now clinch not only a playoff spot,
but no worse than the four seed
by beating a injury depleted,
San Francisco 49ers squad in Buffalo tomorrow night.
And JJ, I was thinking about this earlier today,
and I went back and I listened to some of our old pods,
pre-season pods, really the ones post-Diggs trade.
And there was a lot of shared between me and you on the pod.
You know what, maybe this executive team,
this coaching staff realized that the Bills are,
it's just a reset year, and they're not gonna be that good,
and they don't need to go out and get a number one wide
receiver, and then to juxtapose that to where we're at now,
where after the Diggs trade,
we're all in our feelings that this team is resetting,
we're maybe blowing another year in the Allen window,
but 2025 is gonna be our year,
to see where we're at now, where we can clinch
at least one home, at least one home game
in the playoffs tomorrow, and head into the post-season
to be able to rest and rotate our guys really
for the remainder of the way,
depending on how much in play the one seed is,
is gonna be tremendous.
To me, JJ, help is more important than that one seed.
As much as I would love the playoffs
to run through Buffalo, we have not been healthy
for a single playoff run on both sides of the ball
in the Josh Allen era.
This could be the opportunity, not just to clinch,
but to really set up the end of your season
and rotate your guys like to Kwan Jones in and out
as need be, knowing that yes,
there's still something to play for,
but health ultimately being paramount here.
Well, and I think to not just the thought of
the game's meaning less as the season goes on,
and things in the playoff lineups being more formalized,
but also the players themselves
not literally sacrificing everything
and laying it on the line to play at absolutely,
you know, leaving all in the field scorched earth football
when you are in a five game hole, you know,
or a three game hole with five to play.
Like that last year entry to the playoffs was,
it was tough, I think it took a lot out of the team.
It was taxing. Yeah, is very taxing.
Incredibly taxing.
And so, you know, injuries, it's impossible to predict,
but I do think that you have a point which is,
you have a chance to, you know, last year at this time,
the bills couldn't sit anybody
who was a little bit dinged up
if that person said I can go.
They didn't have the luxury to arrest people
who are in critical positions.
This time around, once they have the AFC East clinched,
which I think is going to happen this weekend,
it's a matter of, okay, we wanna keep the foot
on the gas for seating purposes,
but if Kansas City completely turns, you know,
unless their carriage turns back into a pumpkin
and they start losing games
as you aptly predicted in our last pod,
I just don't think it's gonna happen.
I think we saw what was like a 1% chance play go down
to end the game against the Raiders a few hours ago.
It's crazy. It's just crazy.
I mean, this is a 500 team to me down the stretch
and they should have lost this game today.
It is absolutely should have lost that game.
They had two chances.
Go ahead.
They had two mega chances to have that game snatched away
and somehow the Raiders lost.
And I mentioned before we came on the pod,
I'm pretty anti hashtag rigged,
but it was peculiar that the refs collected at midfield,
discussed it for a while.
They had two penalties on the table.
One was a false start and one was a illegal shift.
A false start completely negates the down
and an illegal shift makes whatever the results of the play,
you know, stand and the results of the play
were Kansas City recovering a fumble.
And so they're like, oh, legal shift, game over.
Or rather Kansas City comes on the field
to kneel out the game.
I don't know.
I don't think it's rigged,
but I just think they have incredible luck with everything.
And they've probably should have lost five or six games,
including the bills game up to this point in time
and somehow have pulled it out.
They're not winning these games, right?
These games, and I hate to say the word being handed to them
because this is the NFL and nothing is handed to you,
but they have been the beneficiaries
from just a wild string of calls going their way
and decisive calls that are deciding the game
in their favor more often than they should.
So, I mean, at some point, listen,
one score games you're aggressed back to the mean.
If it's not in season, it's the following season,
but that's usually because stuff goes your way.
A fumble here, an interception there, a DPI here.
These are third parties, not parties
that are the aware of the home team
that should be having a deciding factor in the game.
These are third parties that are deciding these games
in favor of the chiefs, game in and game out JJ.
I don't think it's rigged either,
but there seems to be some sort of like Jordan-esque effect
where whenever there is laundry on the field,
even the fans think it now
that it's just gonna go in favor of the chiefs,
and it is, and it is,
and you can't explain it for anything other than,
maybe they've earned this status, I just don't know,
but to your point about that call, that call is a choice.
That call is not automatic.
That call has a fair amount of subjectivity in it,
and the refs still made the most subjective call
they could to effectively end the game there in that spot.
I think that's something that definitely deserves
some scrutiny in the off season for sure.
Well, and I think to your point before,
it's the kind of thing where, you know,
again, we're not saying anything's rigged,
but you look at it and it's just like,
you just kind of keep looking at the results
and you're just like shrug like, of course,
like this is what I've seen.
It comes to a point where it's like,
once has happened, stands twice as coincidence,
thrice is enemy action, right?
Like something is happening here.
Yeah, absolutely.
The kind of continuity and the iterations
of these games being handed to the Chiefs,
just continually repeating and nothing being taken from them.
I think that, you know, the,
it's not like there was like one game in this,
in the season where the call ended up going the other way
and the team snatched a game away from the Chiefs.
The, one of the things that I absolutely relished in,
but was initially confused by,
was during the broadcast right at the end,
Kurt Herbstreet or somebody was talking about
how the Chiefs have a 13 game win streak
in games decided by one score.
And I was like, now hold on, they don't have a win streak,
the bills just beat them.
And then I realized he said,
in games decided by one score.
And I'm like, that's right,
because the bills beat them by two scores.
Right, it's exactly.
At some point when you're a team
that is defying math in that way
and you go 13 straight games in that way,
you're the beneficiary of a little bit of luck,
but also a little bit of,
let's say, officiating karma going your way as well.
Now listen, officiating across the league is bad.
It could just be JJ, a coincidence,
that all of this bad officiating is not hindering,
but is in fact helping the Chiefs,
not by design, but by happenstance.
That is very much so on the table.
But if it's that bad and results are being skewed
in this way, it's definitely something I think
that is up for discussion,
at least amongst us as NFL fans,
because there's one thing I think we won't tolerate as fans,
and that's knowing the product in the field
is tainted in some way.
That when two teams go out there,
the product in the field is not being decided
by who puts forth the greatest effort
and who can manufacture the most points on the board,
that there is in fact a guiding hand
between some of these outcomes.
Now we're not there yet,
and I will say if you are a conspiracy theorist
out there in the world saying that this is being handed
to the Chiefs, note this,
referees, once you get to the postseason,
they tend to keep their flags tucked.
They call a lot more stuff in the regular season
than they actually do in the postseason.
The reason being is because you're winnowing down
the officiating crews,
and you're usually getting the best of the best.
But also the NFL has been very open about
not wanting officials to decide the outcomes of games.
So if you are a hashtag rigged person,
this is only a conspiracy that works in the regular season,
because once this actually gets to the postseason,
the Chiefs are probably gonna have to be
on a more level playing field in that standpoint
from the teams they're playing.
And if you're a team that can rush off the edge
and play man defense as we saw the Bills do,
and as we saw the Raiders do today,
you've got a better than even chance
of knocking off this version of the Kansas City Chiefs.
So let that be some solos for you NFL fans,
because once we get to the playoffs,
the laundry is gonna stay clean, hopefully.
We hope, and I think that the point you bring up is good,
which is the frustrating success of this Chiefs team,
which looks bad.
They look like they play down to inferior competition.
They looked like even on the bench today
that they knew they didn't deserve this one.
And for them to have such close games
on consecutive weeks to the Carolina Panthers
and the Eden O'Connell led Raiders, Las Vegas Raiders,
I just think that upcoming matchups against the Steelers,
the Broncos are going to prove to be more difficult
than maybe they can handle.
And hopefully they result in a couple of losses
that are decided by more than one play
that somehow just kind of flips, even if it's coin flip play,
flips in the favor of the Chiefs.
And listen, we're talking about all of this
because we ultimately want this to benefit the Bills, right?
We would love the Bills to have a one seed,
bringing it back to the reason we do this pod, right?
And it is infuriating as a Bills fan,
weekend and week out to see the Chiefs
simply benefit from these circumstances, right?
And listen, I'm not gonna say,
we've already said in a multitude of examples here
how we don't think it's rigged,
but this also feels innately unfair.
And two things can be true at the same time.
This is not a conspiracy as far as I am concerned,
but it can also feel remarkably unfair
when you're one of the,
when you're a fan of one of the 31 teams
that are not the Kansas City Chiefs.
To watch them put forth the effort they put forth
every week to be a team as flawed as they are flawed
and somehow always get the benefit of the doubt
based off past performance, not present production, right?
And that's very frustrating.
If you're not just a Bills fan,
but a fan of another team as well.
Yeah, yeah.
So I think that that can,
we've spent way too much time on the Chiefs on this pod.
So, hang on.
Since we're dragging the Chiefs,
can we also drag the Dolphins before we can?
Oh yeah, absolutely.
Let's move on.
Let's move on to just stomping on
how terrible Tua plays in the cold.
I mean, just listen,
Hanai, the discourse a few years ago around Tua
became so toxic.
Like I had to tap out online.
I wasn't gonna get into any more Twitter beefs
with people about as too good as too bad, right?
Where he is at now though, I think objectively speaking,
is he seems very in tune with the narratives
that are out there in the media and social media about him.
His reaction to everyone asking him questions about
his decision to come back from concussions.
I don't think all of the questions that the media asked him
were necessarily well phrased.
I think some of them were obviously digging,
but there are also fair questions to ask
when you're a public figure
that plays in such a public forum as Tua does.
And he seemed generally annoyed with those questions.
Same thing about the narrative around the bills.
Heading into that second game,
he just seemed dismissive of a lot of the facts
around his struggles against the bills
and his team struggles against the bills.
Same thing in this game in the lead up to the cold.
And listen, McDaniel in a public way
downplays a lot of this stuff.
We all remember a couple of years back,
he wore the I wish it were colder shirt
heading into that Buffalo game a few years back.
And then he made a joke about the Green Bay game
saying he was gonna throw ice cubes at his guys.
Like it's one thing if you wanna try to take the heat
off your team in public,
but if that is also the locker room
or behind the scenes persona you are putting on,
I feel like you're doing a team of disservice
because at the end of the day,
this is a team that has historically struggled
under McDaniel to play in the types of conditions
they saw in Green Bay yesterday.
And to a person, they were either annoyed
or dismissive of these things
is if we should not believe what we have seen
from the squad with our own eyes.
And I think Jordan Brooks, their middle linebacker today
summed it up great with some heading into the weekend
and comments he was like, listen, we're soft
and that game proved we were soft.
Yes, thank you for someone being honest about it.
The Miami Dolphins are soft and we know this about them.
What infuriates me is that they're telling us,
no, we're not, no, we're not yet,
we can and we can't, everything that we put on the field
says that they are.
Yeah, absolutely.
And I think that that's the thing too is like,
I didn't troll because I feel like I'm more mature than that,
but I did cruise the Miami Dolphin subreddit
following the game and it was a lot of really sad people
talking about we suck, we'll always suck.
We can't beat anybody who's good.
The last team we beat above 500, you know, and like.
Yeah, was the bills and aided by 110 degree field temperature
in Miami.
Well, and it's just like, it's the kind of thing
where over time, it's just like,
it's just like when we're talking about the chiefs,
like over time, you just have to look at the results.
You just have to look at the data in front of you
and what it shows is that this is a team
that doesn't travel well.
This is a team that doesn't play premier
or elite competition at a level that they beat up
on inferior competition.
This is a team that looks sloppy.
I think that's the biggest thing that, you know,
I noticed in that game is well coached teams
don't get 10 penalties for 75 yards, you know,
in critical moments and the bills have are one
of the most penalized teams in the league.
And I think that a lot of that will land at the feet
of Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown for pre-snap stuff
and holdings that were somewhat, you know, arbitrary
and not necessarily accurate, but they were calling them.
So the bills, you know, I feel like I'm talking
up both sides of the mouth.
The bills are one of the most penalized teams,
but they don't look sloppy with it.
They get a lot of penalties on like some of that
pre-snap stuff, which does look sloppy,
but then a lot of it's like competitive challenge stuff.
It's Christian Benford or Sewell Douglas grabbing
like they do doing their best sauce gardener
and impersonation as you like to say.
And it just doesn't look like it looked
against the Packers for the Dolphins.
The Dolphins just, they looked like they didn't prepare
for this game.
And I think that that's, you know, McDermott teams
for the bills never look like they didn't prepare
for the game.
They can come out flat, they can have, you know,
they can come out and get out physical,
but it's usually the team, the opponent is beating them
and doing more than them.
It's rarely that they just don't look like
they want to be there or that they're ready.
Oh yeah.
What frustrates me the most, and well, we can end it here
because we have an actual game to talk about
as we stated in the beginning of the pod, has real stakes,
right?
But what frustrates me the most about the Dolphins narrative
is the unearned credibility they get off of one game,
which was the 70 point game they had against Denver.
Good teams, well coached teams know exactly
what this offense is trying to do.
And they're trying to do the same thing all the time.
They're trying to be faster to certain areas
beyond the hash marks or beyond the, beyond the sticks
at the middle level of the field.
And if you take that away from them,
they don't have a counter punch.
The run game this year has looked awful,
despite the fact that they have a stable of running backs.
That would be the, I believe we picked their stable
of running backs over the bill's stable of running backs
in the preseason as a squad we would rather have, right?
So every year, I'm, I have to listen to media folks
because listen, when the offense is clicking,
it can be really fun to watch.
And we are all, I think, is a fandom
aside from where you sit with your allegiances to a team.
We are sick of watching too high cover football
and watching 21 to 17 games.
And the dolphins offer an antidote to that
when they're clicking.
So I get at a certain level rooting for them to be in.
But the amount of narrative space that they take up,
can I tell you how much I've had to listen on podcasts
and radio shows and read that the dolphins are the team?
No one wants to play in the playoffs if they get in.
They're the ones that have the best chance
why, why?
When they get in, they lose.
And if they get in, they lose in the same way
every single time to a team that takes away
to his anticipatory windows and shuts down their run game
because there is no counter punch with the squad.
There's none, there's none.
They've had a bad offensive line for three years.
They've had a really fast wide receiver core
that is absolutely latched to the timing of the QB
to the point where Malik Washington yesterday,
their rookie wide receiver out of UVA,
took a savage hit coming across the middle to get a ball
that he was not open for when Tua let it go.
But when Tua let it go, it was either Washington
was gonna get there to catch it
or the defender opposing him was gonna get there to pick it off.
And that's what you have to live and die by
as a wide receiver in the system with this quarterback.
You need to lay out to get that ball
and you've gotta take savage hit after savage hit
in order to cover up for what the deficiencies of this QB are.
Yes, he's wildly accurate
and throws with amazing anticipation.
But if you're gonna throw at that level of anticipation,
there has to be a receiver on the other end of that.
They can equal out that equation by making the catch.
And they have to put themselves in that system
and so much risk game in and game out
that you know what the outcome is gonna be
when they face a squad that's got even a remotely competent secondary
or a remotely competent coaching staff.
So I'm done.
I'm done with this narrative that the Dolphins are a sneaky good team.
No one that is good is scared to play this team for those reasons.
Well, and I think that if you look at some of the, you know,
Tua threw like 370 yards, you know, and two touchdowns,
had a great percentage, you know, completion percentage.
Tua is good like that.
I think that the reason they're never ever gonna go anywhere with him
is that he completely lacks the clutch gene.
And the, you know, he took five sacks during the game against, you know, the Packers.
So it's the kind of thing where I give me Josh Allen,
who might, you know, might have a pedestrian 200 yard passing game
with two TTs and then interception.
But in the moments where you absolutely need it on fourth and two,
he runs for a 26 yard score or on fourth and one, he dives,
he picks up his own fumble and jumps through the line.
Like, give me that guy over somebody who's gonna like light up the whole yard,
but then I'm go four for 14 on third down and take five sacks.
That's a great way to put it.
Situationally, Tua plays the same no matter what the down and distance is.
And that's the difference between him and a lot of elite QBs.
Yeah. And I think that the biggest difference between him and those elite QBs
is he does not elevate, he doesn't elevate the people around him.
Because he can only do one thing, which is throw to space on the field.
And when that thing is shut down, the team is deflated.
Everybody who's playing along with him sees it, knows it, knows that there's no,
they don't have it. Like you said, no counter punch.
They have nothing they can dip into the bag to use.
So they're like, oh crap, they've figured out our one trick.
And then you see the whole posture of the team just deflate,
because then the defense knows it's going to have to live with long sustained drives
of the opposing team barreling down on them with the run game,
especially if they're behind on the scoreboard.
It's just a whole deflation of the hope that that Dolphins team has coming in.
They're excellent front runners, but not much else.
They're not dogs.
Dude, we are being so mean. I really hope this karma does not come back to bite us on Sunday night.
Oh my gosh. Well, or that we don't, you know, the bills don't see the Dolphins
on the wildcard weekend and get lit up for seven touchdowns.
And then two Iraq's them up for seven. Oh my God.
That would be wild. But also I think, I mean, who do they got to be?
They got to get past either Pittsburgh or Baltimore, whoever doesn't win the north.
And then Denver and LA, right? So they got it.
There's four teams ahead of them. There's four teams ahead of them right now.
And they still have to play a couple of good teams on their schedule.
And the thing about it is there's a mathematical equation that comes into play in the next few weeks.
If the Dolphins win one, lose one, win one, lose one, you know, in these next four weeks,
they're probably going to be removed from the playoffs by that point in time.
They're not going to have anything to play for in the last week.
They cannot. They have to basically win out.
And I love all the Dolphins players in media before this Green Bay game.
We're saying we're here to smash narratives. We're committed.
We're going to win out. Win out is the only thing we have in front of us.
And then they drop this one.
I know. It's just so the bravado, the unearned bravado and unearned credibility
and the lacky humility, whatever that team gets what it absolutely deserves.
Like and what our thoughts and prayers to our friends, Steve, who I think at the beginning of the season,
our resident dolphins, that's Perth's pick them to win this Super Bowl.
Yes, he did. He did say that. He was. That was a hot take, Steve.
We miss you, Steve. Hope you're OK.
We do. We do. We'll invite you back in the postseason to definitely talk about that claim.
Oh, no, to absolutely answer for that enthusiasm. Absolutely.
All right, so we have a game ahead of us, JJ. Now that we have purged all that bad will around the chiefs and the dolphins,
let's talk about our bills coming off the by against an injury depleted San Francisco 49ers.
And JJ, health is a reasonable place to start this preview because for once, knock on wood,
the Buffalo Bills are the healthier team heading into a prime time matchup against an opposing squad.
In this case, this squad being the defending NFC champion, San Francisco 49ers,
that have found themselves is somewhat in the season from hell, I would say.
Right now, they're dealing with a plethora of injuries.
Earlier in the year, they've lost chunks of their defensive line, including Javan Kinlaw, I think for the season.
A lot of guys that they were relying on, a lot of guys that are taking up significant amount of cap room
while Brock Purdy is still on his rookie deal that are just shelved and not playing.
They recently get Christian McCaffrey back and I'm on a lot of San Francisco 49ers fan pages this week,
and they want McCaffrey benched for Jordan Mason.
So things are not going well. Add to the fact Brock Purdy, according to San Francisco media,
drew in practice today, but with visible discomfort to the point where they don't know if he's going to go or not.
JJ, I mean, it starts really there.
The Buffalo Bills look like they're going to enjoy the return of Matt Milano,
and with the exception of Dalton Kincaid and potentially Keon Coleman,
it also looks like they're going to be 100% on both sides of the ball.
The Bills are rarely in this type of advantageous position, JJ.
So where do you want to start?
Offense, defense, general health, vibes.
Let's start with the offense versus the defense, the Bills offense versus the 49ers defense,
because I want to end on the exciting note about the potential that Milano is back.
So let's start with this Bills offense versus the San Francisco defense.
Some things just kind of to play set the San Francisco defense according to PFF team grades,
which I know we always make the disclaimer PFF is kind of imperfect,
but in a world where you don't have many metrics that look at all teams equally, this is one we can use,
their defense is ranked on that site about 11th in the league.
And they're interestingly enough for in terms of scoring offense and point score,
or stopping scoring on defense, they're 14th and tied for 14th
in both points scored and points allowed with exactly 260 of each.
They have no plus or minus to kind of give you the equivalent rankings for the Bills.
The Bills are fourth highest in the league in point score to 320 and seventh best in the league with 214 points allowed.
So this San Francisco team, and I think that something I'll talk about in terms of their defense,
they're poor in a lot of interesting ways, but they're well ranked and well regarded
because they're a good defense between the 20s, and then they're just giving up everything in the red zone.
Yeah, it's important to remember that a lot of the stats that we talk about, particularly EPA and DVOA,
those are those are largely comparison statistics DVOA in particular,
it is comparing the performance of your defense or your offense or a positional group based off of other positional groups in the league.
So yes, between the 20s, the San Francisco 49ers are performing OK against the pass, as I think you mentioned,
they're a top 10 unit against the run, particularly in efficiency.
They're more middling in the middle of the league.
I think the Bills have some opportunities there.
But to your point, JJ, in the red zone, bottom third in defensive efficiency this season.
And as we know, the Bills are a top five unit when it comes to scoring red zone touchdowns,
total red zone touchdowns this season.
This is strength and weakness for the Bills if they can conquer some of what the San Francisco 49ers want to do between the 20s.
And listen, this has been the story of this 49ers squad since I would say since they lost to Miko Ryan's as their defensive coordinator.
He was their identity in a lot of ways.
It wasn't just the scheme.
It was the way he wanted his squad to implement the scheme.
And we've seen that come across in his time in Houston and San Francisco has really been searching for that identity.
Add to the fact that Bose has dinged up.
Fred Warner disclosed that he's playing with a fractured foot since week five.
Kinlaw being out.
Greenlaw doesn't look like he's going to play, although they are going to ramp him up at some point to start this season.
I mean, it's a combination JJ of this is a team that is not as well coached as it was on that side of the ball.
And it's a squad that's really injury depleted.
So they're losing in big situational moments that they didn't used to.
Yeah. And I think you're absolutely right.
I watched a lot of San Francisco games because we had the buy.
And so I just sort of it was a thing to do passively.
You know, I'm hanging out with with my son and I just have all 22 playing silently in the background.
That's the way to be.
And so, you know, watching a lot of the film, the thing I remember from their Super Bowl run last year was that this defense looked.
It was terrifying to try to go against this defense.
You were going to be facing up against incredibly elite players who also had a tenacious edge to them.
And this season, I don't see that as well.
They're missing a lot in the intensity, even if a lot of the same people are there and are the same.
And I know that injuries have changed that picture a little bit.
You could see even park players in the defense for the 49ers.
Not coming with the tenacity or flowing to the ball like like they did last year.
And I think it's probably some of it's where their season is right now.
Some of it is certainly leadership and kind of who's getting them fired up every week.
And some of it is, you know, those injuries being demoralizing.
And so, you know, I think that when you look at this defense, they have our boy Leonard Floyd.
I'm sure people are going to celebrate, you know, seeing him again after the game.
But he's having a kind of season and things got five or six sacks.
But most of them are like cleanup style sacks.
Their defensive line, which is like weird to say about the San Francisco 40 matters,
which is one of those teams that just has a reputation of being physical and stout upfront,
is not very good without Nick Bosa.
Without Nick Bosa in the lineup, Leonard Floyd is the only person kind of worth anything.
And he's not even having that great of a season.
So I think you can run on it in the middle.
They've got, oh, my gosh, I'm going to murder this guy's name, Sam Aquani on you.
And I'm going to say yes, Aquani on you.
And then Malik Collins and they're they're just not doing very well in, you know,
in stuffing their own interior.
And then your your gross mottos who I think they overpaid and Leonard Floyd,
of course, from the bills who also I think they may have overpaid on the edges.
And it's really it's tough because the center of their their defense, of course,
anchored by Fred Warner, who you mentioned, even with a broken foot is PFS
and best rated linebacker in the entire league right now.
So let that be, you know, frigate PFS.
I swear to God, he I mean, and listen, he played gangbusters in the beginning of the year.
I think through his first I was looking this up in his box score game logs,
his first three games of the season.
He had three forced fumbles and an interception return for a touchdown.
And then he got injured in week five, right.
And that's when it all started to decline for him.
JJ here, no, go ahead, finish.
Because I want to I want to talk about it.
The only point I was going to I was going to finish is that they have kind of a
complete lack of a pass rush.
They are a little bit soft against the run in the middle other than Fred Warner.
But they do tend to be relatively good at flowing to the ball and stretching things
out between the you know, the sidelines.
And so I feel like the bills are going to have a struggle if they try to do wide zone,
but they're probably going to be successful if they go straight up the middle at these guys.
I'm hoping that Ray Davis has a big game because of it.
Yeah, I was just going to say this feels like a game where Ray Davis maybe gets featured
in a couple of very specific sets because this is a defensive line.
He can absolutely take advantage of particularly behind OSIRIS Torrance and David Edwards
with the push that they're getting in the run game.
You know, JJ, I'm pathetic to the injuries to some extent because as we talked about at the beginning of the pod,
our history of heading into the playoffs as a bill's unit has been one of depletion
and not having all of our dudes ready to go.
And I agree with you.
If you weren't looking at the name on the front of the jersey and you just covered that up
and looked at the names on the back of the jersey for these guys, you'd be like,
this is not an elite squad.
This is a squad the bill should absolutely handle.
But it has to make you as a bill's fan appreciate what this defensive coaching staff,
Sean McDermott and Bobby Babish in particular do in the face of a lot of the injuries they've had to work through this season.
Because we haven't had all our guys this year either.
Milano hasn't played football for us in what, 13 months or something like that?
Dwayne Carter, who was a rookie standout for us.
At one point in the season, he was number seven in run stop win rate, according to ESPN analytics.
We've had him gone for a few weeks.
Austin Johnson has been in and out.
Smoot has been in and out.
Even Benford has missed a game here where a Kyrie Elam had to step up.
That's the thing with what this coaching staff does.
And because they are in lockstep with the signing and talent development philosophy of this front office and Brandon Bean,
they're able to find guys where other teams cannot find guys to fill those holes until their units on both sides can become whole.
And it really does make you marvel because these are two teams who, yes, right now are on different health trajectories.
But it's not in the not too recent history of the Buffalo Bills that they have had to deal with a level of injury is similar to what the San Francisco 49ers are.
And they have had better outcomes.
And that's a credit to the way this coaching staff develops next man up, not just as a philosophy, but as a talent driven way to coach these guys.
And as a practice, and I think that that kind of harkens back to like the comments I made about the Miami Dolphins not looking like they were prepared.
You never see a player come in who's playing in a relief role, Alec Anderson, Cedric VanPan Granger, you know, Ryan VanDemark.
Like you don't see those players coming in on offense and looking lost or like they didn't know where to be.
I think that what we saw with different offensive starters being replaced was, you know, a snap here or there where maybe somebody ran their own route or somebody was just out of position a little bit.
But that it's pretty rare.
It's pretty rare to see anything where you look at this and you go, ooh, that's definitely a backup replacement level player.
They did not properly prepare a coach for this game.
Yeah, no, it is.
It really is.
JJ, what are your thoughts on how the weather is going to impact this game for the San Francisco 49ers?
So it's supposed to be pretty heavy snowfall to start the game and before the game and then kind of when people are tailgating and then it's supposed to like Peter out by the by half time or definitely by the end of the game.
This is yeah, this is a squad that on the defensive side of the ball.
They try to mix in as much man as they can, you know, but they're playing some match zone here and there.
I just wonder if it changes their past defense philosophy because it's going to be windy, but the wind doesn't impact Josh Allen at all, right?
And we always say in bed whether the wide receivers have the advantage of knowing where they're going to be running.
So DBs are going to have to react in some less than ideal conditions for the 49ers.
I just wonder if, yes, I think it's going to be a run heavy game plan on both sides of the ball.
But I just wonder if ultimately differences Josh knows how to throw in this weather and whoever the opposing QB is going to be facing either Purdy or Allen.
Don't I mean, I remember Purdy's last what was like Purdy's last bad weather game.
It was that Cleveland game.
Yeah, it was that Cleveland game where I think San Francisco is undefeated heading in and that's where Jim Schwartz like had this great game plan and crappy weather that shut down that that vaunted 49ers.
Kyle Shanahan offense really worked him over in Cleveland.
And I think we credited Schwartz and that defensive unit in Cleveland a lot.
But given that that is the really only limited sample we've seen Purdy play in bad weather, I do wonder if it's going to really have an adverse effect on him coupled with the injury.
Should he ultimately go, which at this point at the time of recording, we don't know if he's going to.
Yeah, but that might be a good chance to flip it over. Talk about Bill's defense and the 49ers offense.
Yeah, that we can kind of jump into that.
I'll say just one more thing about the kind of Bill's path to victory on offense against this defense.
I mentioned before going straight at them go up the middle their defensive tackles can be had in the run game.
Bill off of that with play action passes like you said, if there's a weather factor, this is going to be an interesting test to see if Joe Brady is if Sean McDermott has evolved.
Like we all think he has to let Joe Brady do some things that would otherwise can Sean Sean McDermott from the past may have considered risky, like big time throwing in weather.
Because if you remember the wind game against the 49ers against the Patriots some years ago, when it seemed like late in the game when it came crunch time,
day ball was allowed to do a lot more passing concepts and Josh Allen started shredding that defense even with the wind.
You know, he was still delivering on target ball.
So this is going to be a question of does Sean McDermott like he has this whole season trust his guy to get it done and not worry about the ball slipping out of people's hands and you know, turnovers and those sorts of things and make that a reason to coach scared a little bit.
And so yeah, I think that there's an opportunity to kind of get after him in the run game. I think that they should not be afraid to throw even if there's weather and I am really hopeful to see Keon Coleman back in this game.
Yeah man. All right, let's flip it over. Let's start with the hopeful return of Matt Milano JJ. If Milano does indeed suit up for this game.
What are you expecting from him with regard to snap share because Dorian Williams right now I believe is leading this squad and tackles.
And he has progressed very positively weekend and week out. Do you see Milano coming in and being a 90% guy right off the bat after an extended hiatus from playing football?
Or do you think they work him back in slow?
I think Matt Milano comes in on third long and late downs. I think they use Matt Milano like they've used Von Miller this season.
I think that you know, when healthy Von Miller, I think that they they bring Matt Milano in because he is in head and shoulders above Dorian Williams in terms of coverage ability.
So I think that Matt Milano has some snaps against Kittle. I think that Matt Milano has some maybe has a send him on a pass rush.
You know, there's some things that I think that they'll use Matt Milano to do.
But I don't see I think you're going to see Dorian Williams in that spot on early downs against the run, because that's you know where he's going to be better.
And I think they ease Matt Milano. He's definitely on a pitch count, I believe he's probably, you know, we might see him for a half and then not in the second half at all.
Yeah, I think he's too important to the future of this season to run out there as much as I'm sure he would want to.
Yeah, and play 90% of the snaps.
If the bills get up to scores, I think we see Matt Milano in for a couple of series in the second half and not much else.
Yeah, yeah, I agree. I agree.
JJ, what else defensively do you think is going to be a key for the squad?
It is notable as we talked about injuries on the defensive side of the ball for the 49ers.
The offensive side is also dinged up.
We noted McCaffrey coming back from major injury.
This offensive line as well, JJ for the 49ers absolutely torn to tatters by injuries.
Feliciano, John Feliciano, who former Buffalo Bills great has been,
I think ruled out officially for the season.
They opened up his three week practice window,
saw what they needed to see in San Francisco and were like, you're not healthy and shut them down for the year.
Trent Williams also unlikely to go in this game.
And we know that he is a huge factor in what they want to do in the run and pass pro game as well.
So that's a big loss too.
Defensive line, we mentioned Dwayne Carter.
Looks like he might be coming back this game.
It looks like the Bills are going to go out off of a by well rested with all their horses against a really banged up offensive line.
What do you see in the way of pass rush this game for the Buffalo Bills?
Is this a six sack game?
Yeah, I mean, if okay, I'll say I'll count couch this a little bit.
If it's Brandon Allen, it's maybe five or more sacks or at least four sacks.
If it's Brandon Allen, if it's Brock Purdy, I feel like it's two or three sacks.
He's he's shifting.
He's shifting.
He's really he's slippery and it'll be interesting because like you kind of brought up a little bit when we were switching over from from Bills offense to Niners offense.
Brock Purdy does not have any physical tools, but he just is good.
Like we're so mean to me.
I mean, I couldn't play quarterback.
I couldn't play quarterback in the arena league.
Like this is, you know, we're just talking.
We're just like so bad.
I'll speak for myself. I'm just like a fat middle aged guy in the suburbs.
So you can speak for both of us. It's fine.
So so, you know, take it for what it's worth.
But what you do that's what, you know, I'm only talking as a comparison to other quarterbacks in the NFL.
Like there's a reason he was the last pick of the seventh round in his draft class.
Like his measurables leave a lot to be desired.
You look at him and you're like, how, you know, how are you going to play?
Um, and just somehow gets it done.
I respect the crap out of him.
And for him to have the, the, the gonads to sign a deal to promote paw patrol.
Like, come on, dude. Nice.
Like to just stand up and be like, yeah, I got the paw patrol endorsement.
I'm here with the puppies and we're going to get this thing done.
Um, my kids appreciate that.
Appreciate that. Thank you.
So like I have so much respect for him because there's no reason it's he's a, he's an aberration.
There's no reason he should be as good as he is at football, given his measurables.
But he is slippery.
He extends plays.
He delivers a nice ball.
Um, there's a lot of things there.
But yeah, I think that missing Trent Williams, um, their backup left tackle, um, jail and more is like probably a starting caliber.
The only reason he's a backup, I think, is because he sits behind Trent Williams.
I feel like for most teams, he'd be there starting left tackle and it is a decent kind of average starter level.
Um, their left guard who replaced John Feliciano, Aaron Banks is, I'm sorry, maybe Feliciano was playing right.
Um, he might have, yeah, no, yeah, I know he was playing right.
Yeah. So Aaron Banks, who's a preferred starting guard, he was also dinged up recently.
He looks like he's in, uh, he's okay.
But the real, you know, the real weakness on this offensive line is that left garden center.
Um, their center, uh, Jake Brendle is, you know, average at best and not great in pass pro.
So his pass block grade is a 44.
Um, so that is an absolute opportunity for Ed Oliver.
Ed Oliver needs to do some things here, even though at right guard, Dominic Pune out of Kansas, you know, we talked about him a lot leading up to the season because he was a draft crush of mine as well.
Um, started as a rookie and has, as their best offensive lineman, not, not named Trent Williams.
So, you know, I think that the real weakness is left garden center.
So you're going to look for some interior pressure.
Their tackles are again, average.
Um, but I think that average tackles because like look back to the Kansas City game, the Kansas City Chiefs have far below average tackles.
This, the San Francisco 49ers have average starting level tackles.
So I don't know that we're going to see as much pressure, um, from Russo from Epinezza that we saw in the Chiefs game.
Um, unless they, you know, play above their grade.
Yeah.
You know, I want to go back to the party stuff for a minute.
Um, just because I want to echo my respect for Brock, party in the way he plays.
But I think too, because the 49ers are mired in this terrible season, it's been a little underrated how much he was putting on his shoulders to keep that offense churning.
We talked about the defensive side of the ball being mostly the same for the 49ers.
This season is it was last year between the 20s.
JJ, it's the same thing for the San Francisco 49ers offense.
And a lot of that has to do with Brock, party brain and I you cause mistime.
Debo Samuel has been banged up.
McCaffrey hasn't been playing, uh, save for the past three weeks upon his return.
He's had to do it with John Jennings and Jordan Mason for the most part and no shade at those guys.
But if you had them drafted on your fantasy team prior to week one, uh, you're either amazing or a liar.
So, I mean, in all honesty, what Brock, party has been doing to me has been more impressive.
Than what he did last year because he is answering questions about can he operate outside of structure and can he be successful when not everything is going his way perfectly when he doesn't have all of his weapons exactly where they need to be at his disposal when the protection for him is less than ideal.
And he's answered a lot of those questions.
We've seen a more athletic Brock, party than we saw last year.
And we've seen, I think a more tenacious Brock, party as well.
Now it begs the question whether or not he's going to play in this game, but I think it is worth throwing a little bit of flowers at his feet because he's had a really good season up until this point this year.
Yeah.
And I think that just to let everyone know about the injury status, Brock, party has a throwing shoulder injury and did not.
It was kind of a surprise sit last week against the, the, um, the Packers, but he has similarly not been throwing too much this week.
And so it's, it's sort of if he, I think he's listed as questionable.
Um, and if he doesn't go, I think that this 49ers offense, which, you know, statistically is good, but is so bad in the red zone that they're scoring his way down.
Um, I think that you see a team kicking a lot of field goals against this bill's defense.
If it's Brandon Allen.
Yeah.
Absolutely.
I like, I like he said, if it's a Brandon Allen game, he's going to get sacked five or six times.
I don't know that they let him drop, drop back five or six times.
They're just handed in these conditions and yeah.
Right.
Handed off to Mason and McCaffrey and just call it a day at that point.
Yeah.
All right, JJ, anything else you want to do to tie a bow around this before we get to prediction?
Sure to go wrong.
Nope.
I think that, you know, I'm excited about this game.
I, this is a possibility.
It's a possibility that George Kittle has an absolute amazing game because he is probably the best.
He's playing some of the best ball of all the tight ends in the league right now.
If only everything else around him was a little bit better.
I know.
I know he really, he really is fun to watch weekend and week out.
I just hope he's not fun this week.
Exactly.
All right.
So JJ spread on this game is favoring the bills by six points.
The over under on this is 44 and a half according to draft Kings, which I thought would have come way down given the weather predictions.
This line opened at bills minus six and a half.
So a little bit of a shift towards San Francisco.
I don't really know what that's about, but there you have it JJ.
So what's your final score prediction?
I think that the Buffalo Bills win comfortably in a game, any, especially if there's a little bit of weather in a game that they are particularly skilled at playing a rough physical nasty kind of in the elements game.
I think this team is keyed up for that.
And I have the bills winning 34 to 17, doubling up the 49ers.
Damn, you've got them putting up 30 in a snow.
Yes, because I don't think the weather, I don't think the weather is going to be as big of a, I think the snow might be fun for TV, but I don't think it's going to be as big of a factor on the field.
I could be wrong.
It could be that Colts game that Shady McCoy won an overtime.
It could be that craziness, but we'll see.
Well, there you are.
The Buffalo Bills have scored at least 30 and all of their games since week seven.
So starting with the Vaunted Tennessee Titans.
So they're on a bit of, they're on a, what was that five games, five games is scoring 30 JJ.
Yeah.
And that's six.
That's six games.
That's no live, live pot.
Um, live pot.
There it is.
No, but the, and the thing of it is the reason I'm confident in the 30, the 30 burger is because the team has shown that the way it's scoring is sustainable.
And they're getting more tools back in their toolbox if they have Keon Coleman, if they have a two week healthier, Amari Cooper, um, you know, Khalil Shakir is not going anywhere.
So I think that they have more, you know, opportunities to, to kind of get ahead here, um, and play, play a nice game.
I like it.
No, I like it.
I'm going to go, I'm going to, I'm going to give you two if Brandon Allen plays.
This is bills 27 and 49 or seven.
Um, if Brock, a party plays, this is bills 27 49ers 14.
Um, I just think party can do a few more things that can take advantage of the weakness of this bill's defense, particularly their inability to, although they did a great job in the homes a couple of weeks ago, their inability to really lock down mobile mobile
TVs, they still really struggle with that game in and game out. And I think, especially if party is hurt and he is on the field, I think he's going to use his legs more than his arm to try to win this game.
Yeah.
Um, I got one prop for you, JJ, and it's not related to this game.
So starting tomorrow, the bills play the 49ers Rams, Lions, Patriots, Jets and Patriots. That is one, two, three, four, five, six remaining games, JJ over under Buffalo Bills at 14 and a half wins to end the season.
Hmm.
So he might the over under you're asking me is will they lose more than one, essentially. Correct. Basically. Yep.
I'm going to go over because I think they do lose one. But that's it. I don't think they lose more than one.
No, that would be them running the way. Yeah, if they went, if they went 15 and no, then under because I think that they do lose one.
Yeah, I agree. And I've got that Lions game circled, although man, the Lions that pass rush very ineffective against Chicago and those DBs for as the some of the names they got over there, and they are not holding up.
They're not holding up over two and a half seconds in coverage. So that one could be an interesting one. But I'm going to go under two. I and again, I listened to all of our preseason pods. I had the ceiling on this team at 10 wins and I'm feeling like an absolute moron at this point for that.
But because they're going to they might very well hit it on Sunday. I'm going to go under two though, just because I think to our point earlier. Eventually, there's only so much you can clinch.
And if the Kansas City Chiefs continue this blessed experience that they're living, it could very well be that by the time the bills get to week 1617 and 18, where they've got the Patriots two out of three times.
It could be very well that they're not playing for anything. They're not playing for anything. They haven't already locked up two or three seed in the division. So as a result, I do think they rest some guys. And I think they've got one maybe two losses left this season.
Yeah. Well, and I think that it's important to think about the schedule a little bit to your point. If the Chiefs don't lose one soon, then what we might see is the play the teams that are behind the bills sitting in that set that AFC number two seed.
The teams behind the bills, a lot of them play each other. And so there's a there's going to be a situation most likely where you know the teams that are chasing you. One of them is going to have to get a loss, you know, here and there.
And so there's a chance that like you said, you're in week, you know, 1718. And you know, you're the two seed kind of no matter what the outcome of your game is. So you don't necessarily sweat. You know, if you're two games up from Pittsburgh, like you don't sweat letting it, you know, letting it go.
Exactly. Yeah. Note to NFL schedule makers, please don't schedule divisional opponents two times through the end of the season. That is just great. Crazy mismanagement.
This happened two years ago with the Jets too.
It's stupid. Why do that? Why do give us a slate of divisional games in the first half of the schedule, then the buy. And then I love divisional games at the end. I love that playing your second games at the end. But don't don't bunch them up against one squad like that.
It's crazy. That's that's bananas. Yeah.
All right, JJ. Well, hopefully, hopefully our our angriness and general pettiness about the dolphins and the shoes does not cost the bills in the way of the universal karma when they play the San Francisco 49ers this week.
For all of you listening at home, like, share and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts now on YouTube, Apple, hand Spotify, as always, go bills.
Yeah.