1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:07,200 All right, welcome back to the Buffalo Bread podcast, our first live video, well, not live 2 00:00:07,200 --> 00:00:11,320 video, but recorded video version of the pod. 3 00:00:11,320 --> 00:00:13,160 It's week 11, Dan, it's Chiefs Week. 4 00:00:13,160 --> 00:00:18,480 It seems like a monumental occasion in the course of the season, but I find a lot of 5 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:21,800 Bill's Mafia is in this weird sense of malaise. 6 00:00:21,800 --> 00:00:24,120 They're like, it doesn't like, what does this matter? 7 00:00:24,120 --> 00:00:27,120 We beat them in the regular season all the time. 8 00:00:27,120 --> 00:00:30,320 And so, you know, I don't know where your head is at. 9 00:00:30,320 --> 00:00:34,640 All I know is that now that people can see our face, our viewership and engagement is 10 00:00:34,640 --> 00:00:39,240 either going to go down or incredibly way down. 11 00:00:39,240 --> 00:00:41,200 It's probably going down. 12 00:00:41,200 --> 00:00:42,200 That's right. 13 00:00:42,200 --> 00:00:43,200 That's right, America. 14 00:00:43,200 --> 00:00:44,520 This is what we look like. 15 00:00:44,520 --> 00:00:47,200 This is what you look like after two kids in a mortgage, my friend. 16 00:00:47,200 --> 00:00:48,640 So soak it all in. 17 00:00:48,640 --> 00:00:50,840 One kid in two mortgages. 18 00:00:50,840 --> 00:00:52,360 Soak it all in, everybody. 19 00:00:52,360 --> 00:00:57,960 But yeah, JJ, this week, I agree with you, the vibe amongst Bill's Mafia is what could 20 00:00:57,960 --> 00:01:03,320 this game possibly mean if at the end of the day, we don't complete the task that we need 21 00:01:03,320 --> 00:01:06,400 to in January, which is beat this Chiefs team. 22 00:01:06,400 --> 00:01:11,360 And I feel that pain and I feel also that same sense of kind of like inertia when it 23 00:01:11,360 --> 00:01:16,000 comes to this matchup, because we have seen this before where the bills get a win against 24 00:01:16,000 --> 00:01:19,480 the Chiefs in the regular season looks like everything's going our way. 25 00:01:19,480 --> 00:01:23,480 But inevitably three out of the past four times, it ends at the hands of this Kansas 26 00:01:23,480 --> 00:01:24,480 City team. 27 00:01:24,480 --> 00:01:30,960 I'm trying JJ and my own head to fight off some of that narrative slump, if you will, 28 00:01:30,960 --> 00:01:33,120 because there are actual stakes at play here. 29 00:01:33,120 --> 00:01:37,760 I mean, this game means a lot for the Buffalo Bills in their March to the postseason when 30 00:01:37,760 --> 00:01:39,520 it comes to the number one seed. 31 00:01:39,520 --> 00:01:45,480 This is something the one of the few accomplishments, one of the few sort of pelts on the wall that 32 00:01:45,480 --> 00:01:49,600 in the McDermott and Allen era, this Buffalo Bills team has not claimed, which is a number 33 00:01:49,600 --> 00:01:55,880 one seed, which comes with that first full week by in the postseason, and then guaranteed 34 00:01:55,880 --> 00:01:58,560 home field advantage for as long as you win. 35 00:01:58,560 --> 00:02:03,240 I think for me, JJ, especially when you look at the injury toll that is being taken on 36 00:02:03,240 --> 00:02:08,120 this bills team, both defensively and now in the past catchroom offensively, I don't 37 00:02:08,120 --> 00:02:12,680 think we should sleep on the real life stakes in this game, which is if we can beat the 38 00:02:12,680 --> 00:02:17,120 chiefs here and take care of business the rest of the season, we may have the inside 39 00:02:17,120 --> 00:02:21,960 track to the one seed and a full week before our first postseason game to get all of our 40 00:02:21,960 --> 00:02:23,480 dudes back healthy. 41 00:02:23,480 --> 00:02:27,120 So to me, JJ, I'm fighting that narrative slump because there's real stakes that come 42 00:02:27,120 --> 00:02:28,920 along with this game this week. 43 00:02:28,920 --> 00:02:30,200 Sure, I get that. 44 00:02:30,200 --> 00:02:35,280 I think that it's a lot of, you know, projection casting that that people are doing too, because 45 00:02:35,280 --> 00:02:40,440 they look at the bill schedule with three of the strongest juggernauts or two juggernauts 46 00:02:40,440 --> 00:02:44,920 and one strong team in the NFC coming up right out of the by, followed by three games in 47 00:02:44,920 --> 00:02:50,640 the AFC East, which we know should be wins, but also are always a challenge because they're 48 00:02:50,640 --> 00:02:52,280 in your division. 49 00:02:52,280 --> 00:02:57,680 And then they look at the chief schedule and there's what, you know, the Texans, the Steelers 50 00:02:57,680 --> 00:03:00,480 maybe teams that could challenge the chiefs down the road. 51 00:03:00,480 --> 00:03:04,800 But otherwise, it looks like the chiefs will walk out of the season undefeated if the bills 52 00:03:04,800 --> 00:03:05,800 don't stop them here. 53 00:03:05,800 --> 00:03:10,320 Yeah, this seems like for all of you NFL fans that don't want the chiefs to go. 54 00:03:10,320 --> 00:03:16,000 Go 17 and know this does feel like the one best chance that there is on the remainder 55 00:03:16,000 --> 00:03:17,000 of their schedule. 56 00:03:17,000 --> 00:03:20,560 This is the last line of CalTrops before the Mexico border. 57 00:03:20,560 --> 00:03:23,440 This is the Alamo, my friends, everybody bunker up. 58 00:03:23,440 --> 00:03:24,440 That's right. 59 00:03:24,440 --> 00:03:29,240 But JJ, all that being said, what this might mean for the rest of the NFL and the catharsis 60 00:03:29,240 --> 00:03:32,080 that made bring to fans should the bills win. 61 00:03:32,080 --> 00:03:36,000 At the end of the day, I think there's enough meat on the bone for the bills and for the 62 00:03:36,000 --> 00:03:38,280 bills to know what exactly the stakes are. 63 00:03:38,280 --> 00:03:42,200 And I mean, let's be real, the fan base is one thing where I'll used to being in our 64 00:03:42,200 --> 00:03:44,720 own sort of neuroses around this team. 65 00:03:44,720 --> 00:03:49,360 It feels like based on the lead up to this week, the players and the coaches know what 66 00:03:49,360 --> 00:03:50,800 is potentially at stake. 67 00:03:50,800 --> 00:03:55,760 And they know that that one final goal that they want to achieve of beating the chiefs 68 00:03:55,760 --> 00:04:00,600 in the postseason is, of course, better served by a win this week than a loss. 69 00:04:00,600 --> 00:04:02,640 So I think that's what they're gearing up for. 70 00:04:02,640 --> 00:04:04,640 Yeah, absolutely. 71 00:04:04,640 --> 00:04:07,560 And let's talk about kind of the setting the stage for this game a little bit. 72 00:04:07,560 --> 00:04:12,520 I'll just very briefly run down the injury so people know we're recording on Saturday. 73 00:04:12,520 --> 00:04:17,360 And so we have a full scope of the injury report, you know, with the exception of game 74 00:04:17,360 --> 00:04:18,840 day designations. 75 00:04:18,840 --> 00:04:23,160 And so what it looks like, of course, most people know at this point that Keon Coleman 76 00:04:23,160 --> 00:04:24,160 is out. 77 00:04:24,160 --> 00:04:25,760 Dalton Cade is out. 78 00:04:25,760 --> 00:04:27,920 Matt Milano is out. 79 00:04:27,920 --> 00:04:32,480 And then Omari Cooper and Spencer Brown are questionable for this game. 80 00:04:32,480 --> 00:04:36,760 But I think it's from most of the Buffalo Beat reporters, it's it's likely they'll both 81 00:04:36,760 --> 00:04:39,920 play, even if it's somewhat limited. 82 00:04:39,920 --> 00:04:43,840 And maybe they, you know, need Spencer Brown to be spelled by Ryan Van Damarch here and 83 00:04:43,840 --> 00:04:46,680 there, which would be an interesting test for him. 84 00:04:46,680 --> 00:04:52,600 But that being said, the bills injury situation, you know, initially I looked at it, I was 85 00:04:52,600 --> 00:04:56,120 like, all right, this is not so bad. 86 00:04:56,120 --> 00:05:01,280 You know, with offense looks terrible, but the defense looks good until I remember that 87 00:05:01,280 --> 00:05:06,680 two starters or immediate replacement level players for the bills defensive line are on 88 00:05:06,680 --> 00:05:12,080 injured reserves, and they're not even showing up on their parade now in DeWon smooth and 89 00:05:12,080 --> 00:05:13,880 DeWane Carter. 90 00:05:13,880 --> 00:05:17,000 So it's it's a rough time a year. 91 00:05:17,000 --> 00:05:21,000 And you know, many people who are indifferent about the results of the game, because the 92 00:05:21,000 --> 00:05:26,880 playoffs matter more are of the opinion that you should just sit every being a sit everybody, 93 00:05:26,880 --> 00:05:30,720 let them have the two weeks to get healthy and then come out and have the last six games 94 00:05:30,720 --> 00:05:32,640 of the season. 95 00:05:32,640 --> 00:05:38,000 So that being said, kind of the pace setting of the bill side, and then on the chief side, 96 00:05:38,000 --> 00:05:43,040 they've had shaky outside tackle play with some injuries and some inconsistencies. 97 00:05:43,040 --> 00:05:48,880 They've also just lost Harrison Bucker in practice to IR, which is a big component. 98 00:05:48,880 --> 00:05:53,080 And I think that people who are excited about that potentially changing things in the favor 99 00:05:53,080 --> 00:05:58,160 for the bills should tamp down that that excitement a little bit, because it might be just as 100 00:05:58,160 --> 00:06:03,680 likely that Andy Reid goes super hard on fourth down without a reliable kicker. 101 00:06:03,680 --> 00:06:08,360 And that times when the bills could have held them to field goals, they instead go all risk 102 00:06:08,360 --> 00:06:10,520 all reward. 103 00:06:10,520 --> 00:06:13,040 Fourth down plays and end up with touchdowns. 104 00:06:13,040 --> 00:06:14,800 So we'll see how that turns out. 105 00:06:14,800 --> 00:06:16,480 Dude, I wouldn't be shocked by it either. 106 00:06:16,480 --> 00:06:21,000 I mean, we're going to get into this in a little bit more depth, but the chiefs on third down 107 00:06:21,000 --> 00:06:25,240 are playing at a historic rate as far as conversion goes. 108 00:06:25,240 --> 00:06:30,280 Patrick Mahomes individually on third and fourth down is literally having the best statistical 109 00:06:30,280 --> 00:06:36,280 season by way of conversion rate on those downs out of any other QB and the next gen 110 00:06:36,280 --> 00:06:39,320 stats next gen stats history. 111 00:06:39,320 --> 00:06:42,480 So Mahomes is having himself a season when it comes to that. 112 00:06:42,480 --> 00:06:45,600 The chiefs as a team are 11 for 12 on fourth down. 113 00:06:45,600 --> 00:06:49,920 I wouldn't be shocked if Andy Reid just decides to spam, spam, spam. 114 00:06:49,920 --> 00:06:54,480 If he's anywhere near bills territory on fourth down, just to keep that bills defense on the 115 00:06:54,480 --> 00:06:57,520 field and Josh Allen off the field for sure. 116 00:06:57,520 --> 00:06:59,920 So JJ, let's dig into it, man. 117 00:06:59,920 --> 00:07:01,360 We got a lot to break down here. 118 00:07:01,360 --> 00:07:06,160 And as is the case when it comes to these two teams meeting in the regular season, they 119 00:07:06,160 --> 00:07:09,120 are both near neck and neck in the standings. 120 00:07:09,120 --> 00:07:12,400 And when it comes to some of our advanced analytics, they're also neck and neck in that 121 00:07:12,400 --> 00:07:13,560 regard too. 122 00:07:13,560 --> 00:07:19,520 So when you chalk up the DVOA comparisons here, overall team DVOA JJ, the bills are at six 123 00:07:19,520 --> 00:07:21,560 and Kansas City is third. 124 00:07:21,560 --> 00:07:25,600 Now for folks listening at home, you may be confused because you feel like the chiefs 125 00:07:25,600 --> 00:07:28,640 have been getting lucky, blocked kick here. 126 00:07:28,640 --> 00:07:31,880 Isaiah likely foot too large there. 127 00:07:31,880 --> 00:07:36,360 But the reality is, is that by comparison to their peers, which is what a DVOA measure 128 00:07:36,360 --> 00:07:42,720 is, the chiefs are still playing in a far above average level and high leverage situations, 129 00:07:42,720 --> 00:07:46,880 which is what you would expect from a team as well coached and a team that's as well 130 00:07:46,880 --> 00:07:49,960 quarterbacked as the Kansas City chiefs. 131 00:07:49,960 --> 00:07:53,280 As of DVOA, the chiefs are still a top 10 team coming in at number 10. 132 00:07:53,280 --> 00:07:55,400 And the bills are number six. 133 00:07:55,400 --> 00:08:00,280 Defensively, the bills JJ somehow are number nine in the league, despite the injuries, 134 00:08:00,280 --> 00:08:04,240 despite the deficiencies against the run game, Kansas City is number four. 135 00:08:04,240 --> 00:08:08,880 And as we'll get into, they don't have the same deficiencies against the run defensively 136 00:08:08,880 --> 00:08:12,120 that the bills do special teams is kind of a wash. 137 00:08:12,120 --> 00:08:16,640 Both of these teams are playing below average, which is unique for these squads at this time 138 00:08:16,640 --> 00:08:21,720 in the air, but the bills are ranked 25th in special teams DVOA and Kansas City only 139 00:08:21,720 --> 00:08:22,720 18th. 140 00:08:22,720 --> 00:08:27,760 So that Harrison Bucke or the Harrison Bucke injury JJ may loom even larger than we would 141 00:08:27,760 --> 00:08:29,920 expect, as you mentioned. 142 00:08:29,920 --> 00:08:31,880 So JJ, where do you want to start? 143 00:08:31,880 --> 00:08:34,840 You want to start on the offensive side of the ball for the bills or the defensive side 144 00:08:34,840 --> 00:08:35,840 of the ball? 145 00:08:35,840 --> 00:08:38,920 Because I think it's two very different stories for how they can be effective against this 146 00:08:38,920 --> 00:08:39,920 chiefs team. 147 00:08:39,920 --> 00:08:45,600 Yeah, I mean, we should really start with the bills defense versus this chiefs offense. 148 00:08:45,600 --> 00:08:49,560 Because I think that specifically, you know, one of the talking points has been coming 149 00:08:49,560 --> 00:08:53,960 up a lot this week that I can't agree with more is that the bills, Ben, but don't break 150 00:08:53,960 --> 00:09:00,440 style of defense plays exactly into the game script that the Kansas City chiefs want to 151 00:09:00,440 --> 00:09:01,440 play. 152 00:09:01,440 --> 00:09:03,320 They want to keep Josh Allen off the field. 153 00:09:03,320 --> 00:09:04,880 They want to control the clock. 154 00:09:04,880 --> 00:09:06,480 They're leading the league in time of possession. 155 00:09:06,480 --> 00:09:09,640 I think it's like 36 minutes per game. 156 00:09:09,640 --> 00:09:13,640 And so their whole game is predicated on we're going to control the clock. 157 00:09:13,640 --> 00:09:14,640 We're going to shorten this game. 158 00:09:14,640 --> 00:09:18,080 We're going to shorten your your number of offensive possessions. 159 00:09:18,080 --> 00:09:22,760 Teams average one and a half less possessions per game on offense against the chiefs than 160 00:09:22,760 --> 00:09:24,440 any other team in the league. 161 00:09:24,440 --> 00:09:29,480 And so it's really, you know, for the bills to say, OK, we're going to make you go 10, 162 00:09:29,480 --> 00:09:32,920 11, 12 plays and beat us with precision. 163 00:09:32,920 --> 00:09:35,040 The chiefs are like, that's exactly what we do. 164 00:09:35,040 --> 00:09:36,040 Thanks. 165 00:09:36,040 --> 00:09:37,040 We'll do that. 166 00:09:37,040 --> 00:09:42,760 So to me, it's really a referendum on what can Bobby Babbage and, you know, Sean McDermott 167 00:09:42,760 --> 00:09:48,840 do in this game to prove that they can evolve to an opponent, an elite opponent and not 168 00:09:48,840 --> 00:09:55,040 just as I used to say all the time with Frazier as the DC, the defense is the defense and try 169 00:09:55,040 --> 00:09:58,960 to get out of here with, you know, execution of the defense is the defense. 170 00:09:58,960 --> 00:09:59,960 Yeah, man. 171 00:09:59,960 --> 00:10:04,400 I've got press man coverage circled in my notes here against these Kansas Citywide receivers. 172 00:10:04,400 --> 00:10:05,400 Yes. 173 00:10:05,400 --> 00:10:11,320 I mean, and we saw Babbage dial it up against Miami in that second game we played against 174 00:10:11,320 --> 00:10:16,280 them a couple of weeks ago, where normally the bills are playing press man at one of 175 00:10:16,280 --> 00:10:17,720 the lower clips in the league. 176 00:10:17,720 --> 00:10:22,040 They're usually going somewhere between 19 and 24 percent per game. 177 00:10:22,040 --> 00:10:27,400 But for that Miami game with Jalen Wilde on Tyree kill on the opposite end of the field 178 00:10:27,400 --> 00:10:32,760 and Christian Benford out for that game, he dialed up press man on about 41 percent of 179 00:10:32,760 --> 00:10:33,880 the defensive steps. 180 00:10:33,880 --> 00:10:39,200 And I feel like it's got to be a similar game plan, JJ, the wide receiver group that Kansas 181 00:10:39,200 --> 00:10:43,680 City is currently trotting out, even with Deandre Hopkins, he is still getting used 182 00:10:43,680 --> 00:10:47,040 to this offensive scheme and finding his way in this offense. 183 00:10:47,040 --> 00:10:52,800 Even with hop on the other side of the field, you got to feel like this wide receiver unit 184 00:10:52,800 --> 00:10:59,080 can be got in man coverage, which would open the door up to maybe some simulated blitzes, 185 00:10:59,080 --> 00:11:03,120 some actual blitzes on Patrick Mahomes, though he decimates the blitz. 186 00:11:03,120 --> 00:11:05,120 So I wouldn't recommend that too fully. 187 00:11:05,120 --> 00:11:10,000 But it opens up some things that not necessarily Andy Reed and Mahomes haven't seen before, 188 00:11:10,000 --> 00:11:15,320 but maybe something that is not yet on film for this Buffalo Bill's defense that they 189 00:11:15,320 --> 00:11:17,800 didn't have a chance to game plan for early on. 190 00:11:17,800 --> 00:11:22,840 Now Reed and Mahomes, they're like the Borg like eventually if you throw enough things 191 00:11:22,840 --> 00:11:24,920 at them, they're going to assimilate. 192 00:11:24,920 --> 00:11:30,400 So the key for Bobby Babbage is can you get creative at the right times to squeeze Mahomes 193 00:11:30,400 --> 00:11:34,360 in this Kansas City offense a little bit, particularly on third down JJ, where they've 194 00:11:34,360 --> 00:11:36,000 been so lethal. 195 00:11:36,000 --> 00:11:40,560 Well, and I think the secret of, you know, controlling them on third down is actually 196 00:11:40,560 --> 00:11:46,160 minimizing cream hunt from falling forward for four yards on first down and second down. 197 00:11:46,160 --> 00:11:51,040 This chiefs team is not the chiefs team from 2020, 2021, who's throwing it all over the 198 00:11:51,040 --> 00:11:52,040 yard. 199 00:11:52,040 --> 00:11:54,080 They're actually establishing their run quite a bit. 200 00:11:54,080 --> 00:11:58,440 They made the same kind of evolutionary progression as the Buffalo Bill's in that regard, in 201 00:11:58,440 --> 00:12:01,640 that they try to stay at third and manageable. 202 00:12:01,640 --> 00:12:08,120 Um, scarily, even if they're third and six to eight, they tend to convert because it's 203 00:12:08,120 --> 00:12:12,240 freaking Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelsey, one of the most targeted tight ends in the 204 00:12:12,240 --> 00:12:13,240 league still. 205 00:12:13,240 --> 00:12:19,360 I thought he, you know, the, you know, the reports of his demise were overstated. 206 00:12:19,360 --> 00:12:22,200 He apparently is still an excellent tight end. 207 00:12:22,200 --> 00:12:23,200 Yeah. 208 00:12:23,200 --> 00:12:28,560 Um, and so, you know, it's really, for me, it's of course what you had said, press man 209 00:12:28,560 --> 00:12:34,640 on the outside that the talent on the chiefs for wide receiver do not handle that very 210 00:12:34,640 --> 00:12:35,640 well. 211 00:12:35,640 --> 00:12:40,240 I think that Deondre Hopkins beats press man as well as any wide receiver in the league, 212 00:12:40,240 --> 00:12:44,880 maybe in his prime at this stage in his career, it does tend to slow him a little bit more 213 00:12:44,880 --> 00:12:46,680 than it used to. 214 00:12:46,680 --> 00:12:51,160 And then on top of that Xavier worthy is just so like you can just basically throw him out 215 00:12:51,160 --> 00:12:52,880 the club at the life. 216 00:12:52,880 --> 00:12:54,840 You get your hands on him at the line. 217 00:12:54,840 --> 00:12:59,480 That's another thing that I wanted to focus on too is this is particularly Christian Benford 218 00:12:59,480 --> 00:13:02,920 and Rassoul Douglas, you know, even Taylor wrap to some regards. 219 00:13:02,920 --> 00:13:08,120 Um, all of those players have shown an excellent ability to maintain a tackle while punching 220 00:13:08,120 --> 00:13:09,620 at the ball. 221 00:13:09,620 --> 00:13:14,640 Xavier worthy, if he gets his hands on one is a prime target for a fumble because he is 222 00:13:14,640 --> 00:13:16,920 one, he's just kind of smaller and slider. 223 00:13:16,920 --> 00:13:19,580 So that's just like a physics advantage. 224 00:13:19,580 --> 00:13:24,800 But then on top of that, he has, you know, in the past had problems with fumbles in college. 225 00:13:24,800 --> 00:13:27,920 Um, here and there and is a, there's a potential for that. 226 00:13:27,920 --> 00:13:31,680 If you can catch him and get your hands on him, you could definitely potentially make 227 00:13:31,680 --> 00:13:36,920 some turnovers, which I think if we're sticking with the bills on defense focus, they've been 228 00:13:36,920 --> 00:13:37,920 excellent. 229 00:13:37,920 --> 00:13:41,560 They've had to turn over in every game for the longest streak in the NFL right now. 230 00:13:41,560 --> 00:13:46,680 They need to turn the ball over more than the offense gives it away in this game. 231 00:13:46,680 --> 00:13:49,480 They need extra possessions for Josh Allen and the offense. 232 00:13:49,480 --> 00:13:53,040 If they're going to control the game, they need to win the time of possession battle. 233 00:13:53,040 --> 00:13:54,880 And that I think is turnovers. 234 00:13:54,880 --> 00:13:55,880 Yeah, absolutely. 235 00:13:55,880 --> 00:14:01,080 And JJ also too, it's interesting when we talk about pressure on Patrick Mahomes, because 236 00:14:01,080 --> 00:14:05,920 I think as we talk more about press man coverage, really what we're saying is we want to disrupt 237 00:14:05,920 --> 00:14:10,640 the timing of this offense because we don't trust these wide receivers on Kansas City 238 00:14:10,640 --> 00:14:15,560 to get separation early in a, in a time to pass situation. 239 00:14:15,560 --> 00:14:20,560 And that has been the case for teams that successfully get pressure on Patrick Mahomes 240 00:14:20,560 --> 00:14:24,120 organically, listen, this dude is still elite against the Blitz. 241 00:14:24,120 --> 00:14:30,080 This team offensively against a defensive Blitz is number three and overall passing efficiency. 242 00:14:30,080 --> 00:14:34,520 But Mahomes is recording his lowest completion percentage against the organic Blitz, the 243 00:14:34,520 --> 00:14:39,240 four man Blitz JJ at 44% this season. 244 00:14:39,240 --> 00:14:43,320 What that tells me when I look at the numbers and I look at film is that if you can get 245 00:14:43,320 --> 00:14:47,920 quick pressure, hello, Greg Russo leading the league in quick pressures off the snap this 246 00:14:47,920 --> 00:14:48,920 season. 247 00:14:48,920 --> 00:14:53,560 If you get quick pressure on Mahomes, these Kansas City wide receivers are not getting 248 00:14:53,560 --> 00:14:58,960 enough separation to create a clear target or window for Mahomes to get to that to me 249 00:14:58,960 --> 00:15:00,360 feels like the key. 250 00:15:00,360 --> 00:15:04,560 I don't actually want to see a lot of exotic Blitz is here, but I want to see us play a 251 00:15:04,560 --> 00:15:09,640 game against Kansas City a lot like we play against Miami, which is we work to get pressure 252 00:15:09,640 --> 00:15:13,960 with our front four, particularly off the edge where this Kansas City offensive line has 253 00:15:13,960 --> 00:15:19,520 some vulnerabilities, and then you do not allow these wide receivers for Kansas City, 254 00:15:19,520 --> 00:15:24,720 a depleted unit without Rashi rice to get easy separation off the line of scrimmage. 255 00:15:24,720 --> 00:15:27,120 I really, really want to see the bills do a JJ. 256 00:15:27,120 --> 00:15:31,000 I just don't think they will because even though we've seen some nice wrinkles from 257 00:15:31,000 --> 00:15:35,160 Babbage, this has largely been a the defense is the defense type of season for the bills 258 00:15:35,160 --> 00:15:36,360 as we have gone. 259 00:15:36,360 --> 00:15:39,880 But if they're going to change it up, if they're going to throw something at Mahomes that 260 00:15:39,880 --> 00:15:44,780 they haven't put on film yet, it's press man on the outside and get pressure with Greg 261 00:15:44,780 --> 00:15:47,240 or so coming off the edge. 262 00:15:47,240 --> 00:15:51,920 I yeah, I think that we were tossing dirt on the defense is the defense. 263 00:15:51,920 --> 00:15:56,760 I will say that in multiple games, particularly when the bills are ahead and the other team 264 00:15:56,760 --> 00:15:59,560 has to change the game script a little bit. 265 00:15:59,560 --> 00:16:04,000 The defense is the defense has proved exactly why that's the plan, right? 266 00:16:04,000 --> 00:16:09,360 Like sound fundamental football making the other team go on long is sustained drives. 267 00:16:09,360 --> 00:16:10,480 We've seen those mistakes. 268 00:16:10,480 --> 00:16:11,480 We've seen the fumbles. 269 00:16:11,480 --> 00:16:12,480 We've seen interceptions. 270 00:16:12,480 --> 00:16:17,480 We've seen sacks and drives because teams felt like they're forced to pass. 271 00:16:17,480 --> 00:16:22,320 And so I do, you know, I'll throw that little caveat in here that this season may be more 272 00:16:22,320 --> 00:16:28,440 than other seasons, particularly those seasons where the offense was was absolutely humming. 273 00:16:28,440 --> 00:16:33,720 And you know, a Frazier defense was just seems soft at times without splash plays this year 274 00:16:33,720 --> 00:16:38,600 because of some of the things, the changes they made younger, faster, more physical, 275 00:16:38,600 --> 00:16:43,560 you know, defenders leaning on some of those younger players, you know, Dorian Williams 276 00:16:43,560 --> 00:16:47,000 and Terrell Bernard have looked a lot better this year. 277 00:16:47,000 --> 00:16:51,400 And so in a lot of ways, I think that, you know, the defense is the defense. 278 00:16:51,400 --> 00:16:55,520 It has worked better this year because of splash plays turnovers. 279 00:16:55,520 --> 00:17:00,360 The sack numbers aren't there, but the pressures influencing the play are the tackles for loss. 280 00:17:00,360 --> 00:17:03,800 Definitely are when they're on it in the run front. 281 00:17:03,800 --> 00:17:07,960 They're holding Jonathan Taylor to like seven yards or five yards and seven carries or whatever 282 00:17:07,960 --> 00:17:08,960 in the second half. 283 00:17:08,960 --> 00:17:14,120 So that's the kind of thing that I think that we can hopefully take some solace from in 284 00:17:14,120 --> 00:17:16,000 this situation. 285 00:17:16,000 --> 00:17:20,960 And one more note on the kind of upcoming game and the matchup with the bill's defense for 286 00:17:20,960 --> 00:17:25,040 me is what do they do about Travis Kelsey? 287 00:17:25,040 --> 00:17:27,240 Travis Kelsey is killed. 288 00:17:27,240 --> 00:17:29,440 He just kills them, man. 289 00:17:29,440 --> 00:17:38,760 And I feel you boy Cole Bishop may have been drafted as a Kelsey antidote, but I don't 290 00:17:38,760 --> 00:17:39,920 know if he's ready for that. 291 00:17:39,920 --> 00:17:44,320 They obviously they obviously don't think he's ready because they're not playing him nearly 292 00:17:44,320 --> 00:17:45,320 the clip. 293 00:17:45,320 --> 00:17:48,360 They're playing some of these other rocks, which which worries me that we're going to 294 00:17:48,360 --> 00:17:53,000 see a Cam Lewis matchup with Travis Kelsey to cancel Kelsey. 295 00:17:53,000 --> 00:17:55,360 And that's not he's not quite big enough. 296 00:17:55,360 --> 00:17:58,000 Let me let me throw another option at you. 297 00:17:58,000 --> 00:18:02,360 And again, this is all this is all hypotheticals that probably won't come to fruition because 298 00:18:02,360 --> 00:18:06,680 the bills are nothing if not frustratingly consistent with the defensive scheme. 299 00:18:06,680 --> 00:18:08,600 But what about Kairi Elam? 300 00:18:08,600 --> 00:18:10,040 What about Kairi Elam? 301 00:18:10,040 --> 00:18:15,240 Just as the the Kelsey shadow, bump them at the line of scrimmage, hold them, do your 302 00:18:15,240 --> 00:18:19,800 best sauce gardener impression within the first five yards of the play. 303 00:18:19,800 --> 00:18:22,520 And don't let him just amble out into space. 304 00:18:22,520 --> 00:18:25,320 Kair, your assignment is Travis. 305 00:18:25,320 --> 00:18:27,840 Stick with him every single time he's on the field. 306 00:18:27,840 --> 00:18:33,440 Unless you see Patrick Mahomes past the line of scrimmage, you are inside. 307 00:18:33,440 --> 00:18:37,120 You are closer to Travis Kelsey than Taylor has ever been. 308 00:18:37,120 --> 00:18:38,120 Yes. 309 00:18:38,120 --> 00:18:39,120 Like that is your mission. 310 00:18:39,120 --> 00:18:43,360 Oh my God, I hope Babbage puts it to him exactly like that. 311 00:18:43,360 --> 00:18:45,040 Again, I don't think they will. 312 00:18:45,040 --> 00:18:49,920 But when you look at the physical profile of guys that are on the defensive roster, it's 313 00:18:49,920 --> 00:18:52,800 Cam Lewis and it's Kairi Elam. 314 00:18:52,800 --> 00:18:56,240 And I actually like Elam in the spot with his traits. 315 00:18:56,240 --> 00:18:59,680 He's built a little bit of confidence throughout the course of the season. 316 00:18:59,680 --> 00:19:05,640 Babbage obviously knows how to tune parts of the game plan to what Elam can do. 317 00:19:05,640 --> 00:19:07,160 I would love to see Elam on Kelsey. 318 00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:08,920 I just don't think it's going to help. 319 00:19:08,920 --> 00:19:09,920 Yeah. 320 00:19:09,920 --> 00:19:10,920 No, I know. 321 00:19:10,920 --> 00:19:12,440 Because again, defense is the defense. 322 00:19:12,440 --> 00:19:16,240 And to kind of throw a couple more flowers at Elam. 323 00:19:16,240 --> 00:19:19,080 I know we mentioned this on the pod, but I think it's worth bringing up again. 324 00:19:19,080 --> 00:19:23,760 He has looked way more confident and capable in zone coverage, not that this is what we 325 00:19:23,760 --> 00:19:25,280 wanted for in this assignment. 326 00:19:25,280 --> 00:19:27,720 Just literally closer than Taylor. 327 00:19:27,720 --> 00:19:28,720 Right. 328 00:19:28,720 --> 00:19:29,720 Absolutely. 329 00:19:29,720 --> 00:19:30,720 Absolutely. 330 00:19:30,720 --> 00:19:31,720 You know, JJ, it's interesting. 331 00:19:31,720 --> 00:19:33,160 This is the type of game, too. 332 00:19:33,160 --> 00:19:36,280 And this will be my last thought, I think, before we kick it over to the offensive side 333 00:19:36,280 --> 00:19:37,880 of the ball for the Bills. 334 00:19:37,880 --> 00:19:44,400 This is the type of game where you almost, I mean, not almost, you wish Milano was back. 335 00:19:44,400 --> 00:19:51,000 Not because you want to hide Dorian Williams, but Dorian Williams as the Kelsey Eraser, 336 00:19:51,000 --> 00:19:57,000 Allah, what Shaq Barrett did in that Super Bowl for Tampa Bay against Kansas City. 337 00:19:57,000 --> 00:19:59,520 That to me would also be a great antidote to Kelsey. 338 00:19:59,520 --> 00:20:04,840 Listen, Kelsey is still really, really good, but he is a slight beat slower this season 339 00:20:04,840 --> 00:20:06,000 than he has been. 340 00:20:06,000 --> 00:20:09,440 He's kind of played his way into shape as the season has gone on. 341 00:20:09,440 --> 00:20:14,680 I would love just to unleash a Dorian Williams knowing you've got the comfort of Bernardo 342 00:20:14,680 --> 00:20:18,640 Milano still sitting in the middle of the field working that. 343 00:20:18,640 --> 00:20:23,560 I think Dorian Williams at some point, once the squad gets healthy, could factor in on 344 00:20:23,560 --> 00:20:26,720 the same way that Barrett did for Tampa Bay, that Super Bowl winner here. 345 00:20:26,720 --> 00:20:28,360 Yeah, no, I agree. 346 00:20:28,360 --> 00:20:32,800 I think that that's a better utilization of him than they have to pinch hit as a Milano 347 00:20:32,800 --> 00:20:33,800 replacement. 348 00:20:33,800 --> 00:20:34,800 Yeah. 349 00:20:34,800 --> 00:20:38,160 And I think, you know, you mentioned it before with Greg Russo and quick pressure. 350 00:20:38,160 --> 00:20:43,720 I think that the, you know, the only vulnerability on this chief's offensive line is their tackles. 351 00:20:43,720 --> 00:20:46,400 And it's a big time vulnerability. 352 00:20:46,400 --> 00:20:49,800 Their suffering on the outside at both right and left tackle. 353 00:20:49,800 --> 00:20:51,600 And so come on. 354 00:20:51,600 --> 00:20:52,600 This is it. 355 00:20:52,600 --> 00:20:53,760 Greg Russo. 356 00:20:53,760 --> 00:20:55,560 This is the time to earn that big contract. 357 00:20:55,560 --> 00:20:58,640 AJ Ponezza, this is the time to prove your worth, your money. 358 00:20:58,640 --> 00:21:02,400 Von Miller, show us that you're not too old to play. 359 00:21:02,400 --> 00:21:04,880 Show us your complete toast at this point. 360 00:21:04,880 --> 00:21:05,880 Yeah, exactly. 361 00:21:05,880 --> 00:21:09,080 Like this is the time to shine for all of those, those ed rushers. 362 00:21:09,080 --> 00:21:14,000 Javon Solomon, how about a rival game, an NFL declaration game for you? 363 00:21:14,000 --> 00:21:15,000 Oh my God. 364 00:21:15,000 --> 00:21:18,680 Obviously, and I'm not going to lie, I didn't want to say it on the pod because then I was 365 00:21:18,680 --> 00:21:22,600 going to be there in memoriam for all to see if I was wrong. 366 00:21:22,600 --> 00:21:26,560 But as I was breaking down the stat packages for this and I was taking a look at the tackle 367 00:21:26,560 --> 00:21:31,120 vulnerabilities, dude, these tackles, they cannot flash to the outside. 368 00:21:31,120 --> 00:21:34,800 They are so slow in their footwork closing off the edge. 369 00:21:34,800 --> 00:21:37,320 I felt like driving in my car one day to work. 370 00:21:37,320 --> 00:21:38,320 Huh. 371 00:21:38,320 --> 00:21:42,320 I wonder if on the pod I should throw out Javon Solomon as an X factor. 372 00:21:42,320 --> 00:21:43,440 And then I was like, you know what? 373 00:21:43,440 --> 00:21:45,880 I'm a back off of it, but here we are. 374 00:21:45,880 --> 00:21:52,280 But and here we are because his speed alone, his speed rush moves off the edge would be 375 00:21:52,280 --> 00:21:58,400 an absolute handful and peer passing downs for those tackles on Kansas City to handle. 376 00:21:58,400 --> 00:22:03,520 I my God, dude, there is listen, I know we're injured and I know it's the chiefs, but there 377 00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:10,160 are so many fun and unique levers that Babich could be pulling in order just to throw some 378 00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:14,160 stuff at my homes and read that they have not seen yet from the Steve funds. 379 00:22:14,160 --> 00:22:18,920 I would love it if Babich a had the agency for McDermott to do so, which I don't know 380 00:22:18,920 --> 00:22:25,400 if he does, but then be actually had the wherewithal to do it because there is a there is a combination 381 00:22:25,400 --> 00:22:30,040 of coverages and a combination of individual matchups here with some guys you would not 382 00:22:30,040 --> 00:22:35,560 expect like a Kyre Elam and a Javon Solomon that could really bear fruit against the vulnerabilities 383 00:22:35,560 --> 00:22:37,440 of this Kansas City team. 384 00:22:37,440 --> 00:22:41,240 I'm disappointed that you said wherewithal, which is like an SAT prep word because I was 385 00:22:41,240 --> 00:22:45,440 really hoping you were going to say Cajones and go like grade school playground with it. 386 00:22:45,440 --> 00:22:46,440 Podcast with it. 387 00:22:46,440 --> 00:22:50,040 Yeah, he just he just doesn't have the sack to do it, JJ. 388 00:22:50,040 --> 00:22:52,040 Not going to say that. 389 00:22:52,040 --> 00:22:54,120 Yes, I agree. 390 00:22:54,120 --> 00:22:55,120 I do. 391 00:22:55,120 --> 00:22:58,920 I mean, I love that we both identified Javon Solomon as a potential X factor, but I will 392 00:22:58,920 --> 00:23:03,840 say that that dude has his snap share has actually gone down even with the ones. 393 00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:05,840 Yeah, I like he's actually lost. 394 00:23:05,840 --> 00:23:10,680 So he he's clearly messed up some of his assignments because he went from like 12 to 14 percent 395 00:23:10,680 --> 00:23:13,040 to six to 8 percent of the defensive snap. 396 00:23:13,040 --> 00:23:17,200 Just give him the Bryce Huff treatment like on these third and longs that Kansas City 397 00:23:17,200 --> 00:23:20,280 find themselves in so frequently. 398 00:23:20,280 --> 00:23:21,840 I mean, that's the thing. 399 00:23:21,840 --> 00:23:26,320 That's what makes this third down offense for Kansas City even more aggravating is that 400 00:23:26,320 --> 00:23:30,600 they are bottom third in the league and first and second down efficiency. 401 00:23:30,600 --> 00:23:35,800 So they are finding themselves in third and long more often than not obvious passing situations 402 00:23:35,800 --> 00:23:36,880 to JJ. 403 00:23:36,880 --> 00:23:42,240 And that feels like a time where you can just tell Solomon to go and get to the QB as humanly 404 00:23:42,240 --> 00:23:43,880 fast as possible. 405 00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:44,880 But you're you're right. 406 00:23:44,880 --> 00:23:46,640 There's something they're seeing in practice. 407 00:23:46,640 --> 00:23:50,040 There's something with his live game assignments that they just don't have the confidence in 408 00:23:50,040 --> 00:23:51,040 him. 409 00:23:51,040 --> 00:23:52,040 But that is a skill set. 410 00:23:52,040 --> 00:23:56,360 Again, it would be great to see exploited by this Buffalo Bills coaching staff if the 411 00:23:56,360 --> 00:23:58,080 opportunity availed itself. 412 00:23:58,080 --> 00:23:59,080 Right. 413 00:23:59,080 --> 00:24:00,080 Yeah. 414 00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:01,080 Yeah, ready to flip it over to the bill's offense. 415 00:24:01,080 --> 00:24:02,080 100 percent, man. 416 00:24:02,080 --> 00:24:06,000 I'm going to talk about Josh Allen versus Spags because that's really what this boils down 417 00:24:06,000 --> 00:24:07,560 to, right? 418 00:24:07,560 --> 00:24:08,560 So we're yeah, absolutely. 419 00:24:08,560 --> 00:24:09,720 So do you want to start? 420 00:24:09,720 --> 00:24:15,960 I've got I've got my notes here broken down into rush game plan versus pass game plan. 421 00:24:15,960 --> 00:24:19,600 And I know we like to talk complimentary football as Buffalo Bills fans. 422 00:24:19,600 --> 00:24:21,860 And I know those things need to align. 423 00:24:21,860 --> 00:24:27,480 But to me, this feels like a game where and it's ironic to say this one, Josh Allen is 424 00:24:27,480 --> 00:24:28,600 your QB. 425 00:24:28,600 --> 00:24:33,280 It feels like despite the efficacy of this Chiefs defense in the run game, there are 426 00:24:33,280 --> 00:24:39,440 going to be some opportunities for Ray Davis and for James Cook to make some hay, particularly 427 00:24:39,440 --> 00:24:40,880 on the outside of the tackles. 428 00:24:40,880 --> 00:24:44,720 So you want to talk J A 17 or do you want to talk rush game first? 429 00:24:44,720 --> 00:24:48,520 Let's start with like, like I always prefer to start with in the trenches with the run 430 00:24:48,520 --> 00:24:51,240 game and run fits. 431 00:24:51,240 --> 00:24:56,400 I think that what you'll see from this, what does they that third best rushing defense in 432 00:24:56,400 --> 00:24:58,320 the league right now, the Kansas City Chiefs? 433 00:24:58,320 --> 00:24:59,320 Oh, yeah. 434 00:24:59,320 --> 00:25:00,320 Yep. 435 00:25:00,320 --> 00:25:05,680 So they have a their their remarkable rush stop ability is three things. 436 00:25:05,680 --> 00:25:10,000 It is Chris Jones, end of statement. 437 00:25:10,000 --> 00:25:16,400 And then it is defensive backs who do not mind getting their nose dirty in the run game. 438 00:25:16,400 --> 00:25:22,440 And then a linebacking core who is custom built to flood and rush into rush lanes and 439 00:25:22,440 --> 00:25:23,440 tackle. 440 00:25:23,440 --> 00:25:28,720 They've really built a team that is quality at that when it comes to not sacrificing too 441 00:25:28,720 --> 00:25:34,160 much athleticism, but also being sound fundamentally and shutting things down. 442 00:25:34,160 --> 00:25:39,400 Some of that also is Spagnolo will do some exotic run blitzes. 443 00:25:39,400 --> 00:25:43,800 And he'll also do if a team's really coming after them with the rush, he'll do exotic 444 00:25:43,800 --> 00:25:44,960 run run blitzes. 445 00:25:44,960 --> 00:25:50,800 And then he will also do some gap switch and gap exchange type things with his defense 446 00:25:50,800 --> 00:25:54,920 in order to get around particularly difficult offensive line matchup. 447 00:25:54,920 --> 00:26:00,000 So if he has an offensive lineman who he believes is overmatched with the defensive line lined 448 00:26:00,000 --> 00:26:06,080 up across from them, he will actually do a run stunt where he moves that defensive lineman 449 00:26:06,080 --> 00:26:13,000 out to another over another lineman during after the snap of the ball or out to somewhere 450 00:26:13,000 --> 00:26:17,840 where a tight end or a wide receiver has to block him and insert a linebacker into that 451 00:26:17,840 --> 00:26:21,600 matchup who might be quicker and you know, might be able to get around somebody who might 452 00:26:21,600 --> 00:26:24,760 be physically overpowering on the offensive line for the opponent. 453 00:26:24,760 --> 00:26:33,360 So it's it's fascinating to watch and infuriating to think about because I can see this substantially 454 00:26:33,360 --> 00:26:38,600 frustrating Aaron Kroemer and Joe Brady throughout the course of the game, because the things 455 00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:43,120 that even when the bills line up with their sixth offensive lineman, Alec Anderson, as 456 00:26:43,120 --> 00:26:48,720 they as they do more than any other team in the league, I can see the chiefs finding 457 00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:56,240 a way to completely negate the bills rushing attack, because you're not going to run straight 458 00:26:56,240 --> 00:26:57,240 at Chris Jones. 459 00:26:57,240 --> 00:27:01,200 That's there's nobody on the bills offensive line who can handle him even in a double for 460 00:27:01,200 --> 00:27:04,560 the most part, which is scary and sad. 461 00:27:04,560 --> 00:27:06,080 You're not going to run directly at Chris Jones. 462 00:27:06,080 --> 00:27:09,760 So you're going to have to work the edges and to work the edges, you're going to get 463 00:27:09,760 --> 00:27:15,520 into those situations where the Kansas City Chiefs will triple triple body to a double 464 00:27:15,520 --> 00:27:20,560 gap, you know, fill the gap with two bodies and have somebody float over the top and fill 465 00:27:20,560 --> 00:27:22,840 in wherever they're needed on the edges. 466 00:27:22,840 --> 00:27:28,060 And that that's just, you know, you almost always have a free tackler with this defense. 467 00:27:28,060 --> 00:27:31,320 What that means and I know this is a comment or something you want to talk about. 468 00:27:31,320 --> 00:27:36,800 So I'll flip it to you for this is that you need to work under center play action in this 469 00:27:36,800 --> 00:27:37,800 game. 470 00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:41,200 You have to spam play action against this chiefs team. 471 00:27:41,200 --> 00:27:46,600 And JJ this is what we're talking about when you have a defense that is this solid at every 472 00:27:46,600 --> 00:27:52,160 level of the field in the past in the run game, you've got to work the margins somewhere 473 00:27:52,160 --> 00:27:57,000 because a Spags coach defense is only going to be vulnerable in the margins. 474 00:27:57,000 --> 00:28:01,120 And JJ those margins are in the play action under center game. 475 00:28:01,120 --> 00:28:06,400 The Kansas City Chiefs this season JJ rank in the top 10 in most defensive efficiency 476 00:28:06,400 --> 00:28:08,920 metrics, except for two. 477 00:28:08,920 --> 00:28:11,720 One of those is play action under center. 478 00:28:11,720 --> 00:28:15,480 They are 20th in defensive efficiency. 479 00:28:15,480 --> 00:28:20,600 When it comes to defending that type of play set and the bills are third at running it. 480 00:28:20,600 --> 00:28:27,280 And Josh Allen has the best QBR rating in the league when it comes to throwing off of under 481 00:28:27,280 --> 00:28:28,760 center play action. 482 00:28:28,760 --> 00:28:33,520 Now JJ much like Bobby Babich where we're like, is he is he going to dial up something 483 00:28:33,520 --> 00:28:35,300 a little bit different? 484 00:28:35,300 --> 00:28:39,800 This would actually be despite the bill's success of play action, a departure in play 485 00:28:39,800 --> 00:28:44,480 calling for Joe Brady because over the past four weeks, the bills have not called play 486 00:28:44,480 --> 00:28:52,760 action more than 24% of their offensive snaps for a game like this, where you have to absolutely 487 00:28:52,760 --> 00:28:55,720 spam a deficiency of the opposing team. 488 00:28:55,720 --> 00:29:00,240 It really needs to be more like Ben Johnson Detroit Lions territory, where you're calling 489 00:29:00,240 --> 00:29:04,760 play action on 51 53 55% of your plays. 490 00:29:04,760 --> 00:29:09,040 Now this means at some point, you're going to have to have some success on the run game 491 00:29:09,040 --> 00:29:13,440 too, so that that linebacker crew in particular at the middle level will continue to take 492 00:29:13,440 --> 00:29:14,440 the bait. 493 00:29:14,440 --> 00:29:18,960 And for me JJ again, when you're talking about the margins of really good defense, you've 494 00:29:18,960 --> 00:29:23,080 got to run it to the outside and you've got to hope that situation that you've talked 495 00:29:23,080 --> 00:29:29,440 about with the chiefs loading up three guys and two gaps, which is what they tend to do, 496 00:29:29,440 --> 00:29:33,400 that the bills are somehow going to crack through that because teams generally, when 497 00:29:33,400 --> 00:29:38,120 they've run the ball in Kansas City, the most success they've seen is trying to stretch 498 00:29:38,120 --> 00:29:40,840 this defense laterally in the run game. 499 00:29:40,840 --> 00:29:45,480 They're giving up JJ on average only about 29 yards per game when you run inside the 500 00:29:45,480 --> 00:29:51,080 tackles, but outside the tackles into the end to the sidelines, they're giving up 54 501 00:29:51,080 --> 00:29:52,320 yards per game. 502 00:29:52,320 --> 00:29:57,160 So this is the area JJ you've got to establish the outside tackle run game, which the bills 503 00:29:57,160 --> 00:30:02,960 are pretty proficient in the majority of their play calls tend to skew very, very slightly 504 00:30:02,960 --> 00:30:05,000 towards the outside tackle run game. 505 00:30:05,000 --> 00:30:09,400 If you can hit that, if the Buffalo is the Buffalo Bills early in the game and establish 506 00:30:09,400 --> 00:30:13,400 it, play action then opens the door for a bunch of other things. 507 00:30:13,400 --> 00:30:17,160 And then let's not forget, if we're talking about stretching the field laterally, the 508 00:30:17,160 --> 00:30:21,480 Buffalo Bills have a screen game and Khalil Shakira is healthy to go for this game, I 509 00:30:21,480 --> 00:30:23,520 think is going to be a factor in this too. 510 00:30:23,520 --> 00:30:26,280 So to me JJ, it's got to be a combination of all of it. 511 00:30:26,280 --> 00:30:29,920 You know that you know that Baltimore Ravens game plan that we wanted to jettison into 512 00:30:29,920 --> 00:30:35,480 the sun where everything was behind the line of scrimmage or everything was to the sidelines. 513 00:30:35,480 --> 00:30:36,480 We actually need that game. 514 00:30:36,480 --> 00:30:37,480 Dust that thing off. 515 00:30:37,480 --> 00:30:41,280 Dust that off, take a spaceship up to the sun, retrieve it. 516 00:30:41,280 --> 00:30:42,280 Retrieve it. 517 00:30:42,280 --> 00:30:45,000 Retrieve the carbon fibers and reassemble it. 518 00:30:45,000 --> 00:30:47,760 Yep, and reset for this game because they're going to need it. 519 00:30:47,760 --> 00:30:48,760 Yeah. 520 00:30:48,760 --> 00:30:49,760 No, that's absolutely right. 521 00:30:49,760 --> 00:30:54,440 I think that you're right about the defense for the Chiefs is just so thick through the 522 00:30:54,440 --> 00:30:55,440 middle. 523 00:30:55,440 --> 00:30:58,720 I think that you could, if you get them moving to side to side, that's the only time they're 524 00:30:58,720 --> 00:31:02,080 vulnerable through the core of this defense. 525 00:31:02,080 --> 00:31:06,000 And so, you know, they're fundamentally sound as I mentioned before, they tackle well. 526 00:31:06,000 --> 00:31:10,920 I think if you can get Mack Hollins or Amari Cooper, granted Amari Cooper's got a wrist 527 00:31:10,920 --> 00:31:14,040 that's dinged up so he might not be the best in this as an insert blocker. 528 00:31:14,040 --> 00:31:18,080 But if you get one of your bigger bodies receivers, even Tural Shavers, you know, with 529 00:31:18,080 --> 00:31:22,000 Keon Coleman down against Trent McDuffie, who's lined up on the outside. 530 00:31:22,000 --> 00:31:24,280 Trent McDuffie has tiny little T-Rex arms. 531 00:31:24,280 --> 00:31:26,240 He's an excellent corner. 532 00:31:26,240 --> 00:31:27,240 He's so good. 533 00:31:27,240 --> 00:31:28,240 He's so good. 534 00:31:28,240 --> 00:31:34,640 And the reason he's so good is because he uses his immeasurably quick lower body to get 535 00:31:34,640 --> 00:31:39,080 around people because his tiny little T-Rex arms won't allow him to do very much in that 536 00:31:39,080 --> 00:31:40,080 regard. 537 00:31:40,080 --> 00:31:45,520 And so, with that said, if you can get a clean block on him on the outside, you're good for 538 00:31:45,520 --> 00:31:48,720 six yards if there's not enough help nearby. 539 00:31:48,720 --> 00:31:53,120 Because even as fast as Leo Channal, even as fast as Nick Bolton and some of those other 540 00:31:53,120 --> 00:31:57,280 players in the center second level are, they're not going to get to the edge before Khalil 541 00:31:57,280 --> 00:31:58,640 Shaqir can get six yards. 542 00:31:58,640 --> 00:31:59,640 I can guarantee you. 543 00:31:59,640 --> 00:32:01,800 So, if you get one clean block. 544 00:32:01,800 --> 00:32:02,800 Yep. 545 00:32:02,800 --> 00:32:03,800 Just one. 546 00:32:03,800 --> 00:32:04,800 Just one clean block. 547 00:32:04,800 --> 00:32:09,480 I get into so many dumb internet arguments about DeKwan Hardy, who we have on the practice 548 00:32:09,480 --> 00:32:13,960 squad, because everyone I get into an argument with is like, he's a slot only. 549 00:32:13,960 --> 00:32:15,400 He can't play on the outside. 550 00:32:15,400 --> 00:32:17,880 And I constantly point to Trent McDuffie. 551 00:32:17,880 --> 00:32:20,040 And I'm like, he could be this. 552 00:32:20,040 --> 00:32:21,040 And everyone's like, no, you more. 553 00:32:21,040 --> 00:32:25,040 And I'm like, listen, I'm just saying no one thought McDuffie because of the way he 554 00:32:25,040 --> 00:32:30,080 played at Washington could play at the outside, but the chiefs are using him. 555 00:32:30,080 --> 00:32:31,720 Using him as an outside corner. 556 00:32:31,720 --> 00:32:34,160 And he's been a solid off outside corner. 557 00:32:34,160 --> 00:32:38,080 He's been remarkably well equipped out there. 558 00:32:38,080 --> 00:32:41,760 And I joke about his his arm like this, the reason that people said he was a slot only, 559 00:32:41,760 --> 00:32:46,960 but like he you can do so much more with smarts and tape study and anticipation and other 560 00:32:46,960 --> 00:32:50,000 physical gifts that he's done. 561 00:32:50,000 --> 00:32:54,040 I will you know, I do get it though, those people who are arguing kind of, you know, 562 00:32:54,040 --> 00:33:01,800 prototypes and you know, body types are that they're they're not wrong because the no, 563 00:33:01,800 --> 00:33:02,960 they are wrong. 564 00:33:02,960 --> 00:33:03,960 Take my side. 565 00:33:03,960 --> 00:33:04,960 Take my side. 566 00:33:04,960 --> 00:33:05,960 They are wrong. 567 00:33:05,960 --> 00:33:09,000 I want I want to take your side, but people like you are the reason that teams pick Bryce 568 00:33:09,000 --> 00:33:13,040 young because they think that they're going to get Kyler Murray. 569 00:33:13,040 --> 00:33:15,400 Oh man, that one hurts. 570 00:33:15,400 --> 00:33:16,400 That one hurts. 571 00:33:16,400 --> 00:33:18,120 Oh, the truth stings. 572 00:33:18,120 --> 00:33:19,120 Okay, continue. 573 00:33:19,120 --> 00:33:21,680 That's my only point. 574 00:33:21,680 --> 00:33:28,080 But I do think one thing I would like to see in this game is moving things left to right 575 00:33:28,080 --> 00:33:31,640 laterally is a vulnerability for this team. 576 00:33:31,640 --> 00:33:35,160 And the one of the concepts that the bills have used in the past, they have not used 577 00:33:35,160 --> 00:33:36,160 as much this year. 578 00:33:36,160 --> 00:33:41,600 And I don't know if it's a matter of it was a dorsy thing that Brady adopted that Brady 579 00:33:41,600 --> 00:33:46,600 has since issued, or if it is a, you know, they're just they just haven't been using 580 00:33:46,600 --> 00:33:48,240 it because they've been trying some other things. 581 00:33:48,240 --> 00:33:53,720 And that's the classic pin pole, the tackle wrap play, where you have a tight end or a 582 00:33:53,720 --> 00:33:56,920 wide receiver crashing out on the last man on the line. 583 00:33:56,920 --> 00:34:03,440 And then you bring Dawkins or Brown or, you know, if Brown is out, you bring the backup 584 00:34:03,440 --> 00:34:07,360 tackle in to do that that wrap around the end. 585 00:34:07,360 --> 00:34:11,840 Because that is a good way to work the edges and create a real nice seal where your angles 586 00:34:11,840 --> 00:34:12,840 are all very nice. 587 00:34:12,840 --> 00:34:17,640 And I know last year on the pot, I, I did like a four or five minute breakdown on why 588 00:34:17,640 --> 00:34:21,320 that works so well with angles as a person blocking. 589 00:34:21,320 --> 00:34:23,120 I won't go back and revisit all that. 590 00:34:23,120 --> 00:34:28,160 But essentially, you just you just create very favorable ways to use your bodies in 591 00:34:28,160 --> 00:34:30,400 space to create a nice seam. 592 00:34:30,400 --> 00:34:33,520 I'd like to see the tackle wrap play come back in this game because I think they've 593 00:34:33,520 --> 00:34:37,880 got they've got the athleticism on the outside to use it. 594 00:34:37,880 --> 00:34:42,080 And I haven't seen it use, you know, they have not utilized it up to this point. 595 00:34:42,080 --> 00:34:43,080 Absolutely. 596 00:34:43,080 --> 00:34:44,080 I mean, not as much. 597 00:34:44,080 --> 00:34:50,160 The pieces are there, JJ, for the bills, even despite the injuries to pull out a much needed 598 00:34:50,160 --> 00:34:52,320 win here against Kansas City. 599 00:34:52,320 --> 00:34:55,800 It's just a matter of, are they going to put the right pieces in the right spots, which 600 00:34:55,800 --> 00:35:00,760 sounds overly simplistic from an analysis standpoint, but really is all is what it chocks 601 00:35:00,760 --> 00:35:01,760 up to. 602 00:35:01,760 --> 00:35:03,600 I mean, this is essentially a divisional game. 603 00:35:03,600 --> 00:35:07,440 These two teams have played each other a lot over the course of the regular season and 604 00:35:07,440 --> 00:35:08,800 the post season. 605 00:35:08,800 --> 00:35:10,960 Since 2020, they know each other. 606 00:35:10,960 --> 00:35:12,200 They've seen each other's film. 607 00:35:12,200 --> 00:35:15,040 They're intimately familiar with each other's schemes. 608 00:35:15,040 --> 00:35:19,840 It is going to come down to some of these unused levers that we've been mentioning as a way 609 00:35:19,840 --> 00:35:23,400 to possibly gain an advantage for one of these two teams. 610 00:35:23,400 --> 00:35:25,120 So we're going to see how it plays out. 611 00:35:25,120 --> 00:35:28,920 And JJ, now is the time to tell everybody how we think that's going to play out with 612 00:35:28,920 --> 00:35:30,560 prediction sure to go wrong. 613 00:35:30,560 --> 00:35:32,720 So let's talk about it, man. 614 00:35:32,720 --> 00:35:34,320 Where do you want to start? 615 00:35:34,320 --> 00:35:37,560 You want to start with your win prediction here for this game? 616 00:35:37,560 --> 00:35:38,560 Yes. 617 00:35:38,560 --> 00:35:42,480 Do you want me to give you the spread and the overrunner and all that fun stuff? 618 00:35:42,480 --> 00:35:46,000 I believe the overrunner is 46, right? 619 00:35:46,000 --> 00:35:47,000 It's 46. 620 00:35:47,000 --> 00:35:50,800 And the line on this game opened at bills favored by one and a half. 621 00:35:50,800 --> 00:35:53,800 It went all the way up to two and a half and is now down to two. 622 00:35:53,800 --> 00:35:54,800 Okay. 623 00:35:54,800 --> 00:35:56,000 Because the money has moved it a little bit. 624 00:35:56,000 --> 00:35:57,000 A little bit. 625 00:35:57,000 --> 00:35:58,000 Yeah. 626 00:35:58,000 --> 00:36:01,480 So I'll say one thing. 627 00:36:01,480 --> 00:36:09,920 The bills on at home are scoring eight or 10 points more average per game than on the road. 628 00:36:09,920 --> 00:36:13,040 And their defense is performing one point better. 629 00:36:13,040 --> 00:36:16,120 They're only allowing 18 points at home versus 19 on the road. 630 00:36:16,120 --> 00:36:23,280 But pretty, you know, pretty consistently have been a good, you know, team in terms of point 631 00:36:23,280 --> 00:36:24,280 differential. 632 00:36:24,280 --> 00:36:27,520 That's the biggest thing I think that we see that gives me hope for the bills in this 633 00:36:27,520 --> 00:36:35,920 game is that the chiefs are historically outliers when it comes to being nine and oh, because 634 00:36:35,920 --> 00:36:41,320 they have such a small point differential over their opponents throughout this this 635 00:36:41,320 --> 00:36:42,320 far into the season. 636 00:36:42,320 --> 00:36:46,800 It's the lowest point differential positive point differential of any team who's been 637 00:36:46,800 --> 00:36:49,800 undefeated this late in the season in history. 638 00:36:49,800 --> 00:36:54,320 So like you said, coming in like statistically and advance analytically, they are a very 639 00:36:54,320 --> 00:36:57,640 good team and their shows and their record. 640 00:36:57,640 --> 00:37:02,800 However, it's so close like one ball bouncing here, one ball bouncing there. 641 00:37:02,800 --> 00:37:08,880 You know, one bad call against the opponent, which we know the chiefs get extra of or one 642 00:37:08,880 --> 00:37:15,400 turnover by Patrick Mahomes that gets negated by penalty of which he has had 30 since 2018, 643 00:37:15,400 --> 00:37:20,720 which is a, you know, point 48 percent versus all of their quarterbacks, which is point 644 00:37:20,720 --> 00:37:24,760 seven percent of their turnovers or mistakes being negated by penalty. 645 00:37:24,760 --> 00:37:25,760 Just throwing that out there. 646 00:37:25,760 --> 00:37:26,760 Not a conspiracy. 647 00:37:26,760 --> 00:37:29,760 Not a conspiracy, but the the refs are on the field too. 648 00:37:29,760 --> 00:37:31,200 Just good to make note of that. 649 00:37:31,200 --> 00:37:33,080 Yeah, good to make note of it. 650 00:37:33,080 --> 00:37:37,800 With all that said, I like the bills in this game because it is home because we know the 651 00:37:37,800 --> 00:37:40,040 crowd is going to be into it and sauced up. 652 00:37:40,040 --> 00:37:45,920 And I think the biggest edges that I can give to the bills is that this bill's team has 653 00:37:45,920 --> 00:37:53,000 proven that they can run against even good rushing defenses at times. 654 00:37:53,000 --> 00:37:57,960 And Josh Allen has been so much smarter with the ball since the two weeks, you know, the 655 00:37:57,960 --> 00:37:59,760 two consecutive losses. 656 00:37:59,760 --> 00:38:03,320 He's been really taking what the defense has given and this Kansas City Chiefs team will 657 00:38:03,320 --> 00:38:09,440 give up yards and completions on play action specifically. 658 00:38:09,440 --> 00:38:13,560 So I think that the bills have a better chance here than than they have in some other matchups 659 00:38:13,560 --> 00:38:18,840 with these chiefs and the chiefs offensive tackles are a complete mess. 660 00:38:18,840 --> 00:38:22,080 And so I don't think Patrick Mahomes is going to be comfy. 661 00:38:22,080 --> 00:38:24,920 And when he's uncomfortable, he also makes mistakes. 662 00:38:24,920 --> 00:38:27,080 So give me the bills. 663 00:38:27,080 --> 00:38:29,560 24 21. 664 00:38:29,560 --> 00:38:30,560 It's going to be sweaty. 665 00:38:30,560 --> 00:38:34,200 Yeah, it's going to be sweaty because these teams don't know how to play any other type 666 00:38:34,200 --> 00:38:35,200 of game. 667 00:38:35,200 --> 00:38:36,200 Yeah, we're it's weird. 668 00:38:36,200 --> 00:38:41,880 Your score prediction is what is actually had the bills 23 and the chiefs 21. 669 00:38:41,880 --> 00:38:42,880 So OK. 670 00:38:42,880 --> 00:38:45,800 So even closer, even closer. 671 00:38:45,800 --> 00:38:49,360 And the bills, the bills barely covering in this particular game. 672 00:38:49,360 --> 00:38:50,360 It's a push on the cover. 673 00:38:50,360 --> 00:38:56,360 But yeah, but I'm with you for all the reasons you already said, I think the bills need this 674 00:38:56,360 --> 00:38:57,360 game. 675 00:38:57,360 --> 00:39:00,720 I think both teams are going to come juiced up for this game. 676 00:39:00,720 --> 00:39:05,200 And despite everything that we're seeing on social media with Bill's fans kind of trying 677 00:39:05,200 --> 00:39:09,800 to pretend like they're ambivalent to this, Highmark is going to be rocking for this. 678 00:39:09,800 --> 00:39:12,760 And that's going to give the bills hopefully all the advantage that they need here. 679 00:39:12,760 --> 00:39:17,120 The people who say they don't care are just putting emotional armor around their heart. 680 00:39:17,120 --> 00:39:19,120 We understand, folks, we're there. 681 00:39:19,120 --> 00:39:20,480 We're there with you. 682 00:39:20,480 --> 00:39:21,480 We really, really are. 683 00:39:21,480 --> 00:39:22,480 We've done the same. 684 00:39:22,480 --> 00:39:24,600 We do it on this pod every week. 685 00:39:24,600 --> 00:39:25,600 All right. 686 00:39:25,600 --> 00:39:26,880 So JJ prop bets. 687 00:39:26,880 --> 00:39:28,680 I actually have two. 688 00:39:28,680 --> 00:39:30,120 OK. 689 00:39:30,120 --> 00:39:34,280 Over under half a decision that cost the bills the game by Sean McDermott. 690 00:39:34,280 --> 00:39:37,200 Oh, decision by Sean McDermott. 691 00:39:37,200 --> 00:39:39,720 I thought you were going to say decision by the head ref. 692 00:39:39,720 --> 00:39:41,200 Well, that's coming. 693 00:39:41,200 --> 00:39:42,200 That's coming. 694 00:39:42,200 --> 00:39:43,200 So yeah. 695 00:39:43,200 --> 00:39:45,360 So listen, cost the guilt. 696 00:39:45,360 --> 00:39:50,600 So you're saying like will cost the bill over would be we lose because of Sean McDermott 697 00:39:50,600 --> 00:39:53,680 decision under would be we do not lose because of a shot. 698 00:39:53,680 --> 00:39:54,680 Right. 699 00:39:54,680 --> 00:39:55,680 And these are exactly. 700 00:39:55,680 --> 00:39:58,440 And I'm not talking about like a fourth down or a challenge. 701 00:39:58,440 --> 00:40:00,960 I'm talking like game management. 702 00:40:00,960 --> 00:40:05,360 The thing that we have regularly derided Sean McDermott for on this pod. 703 00:40:05,360 --> 00:40:07,720 I'm talking about something to do with game management. 704 00:40:07,720 --> 00:40:12,120 Say, I don't know, in the last 13 seconds of the game, you're talking about the 705 00:40:12,120 --> 00:40:15,400 bills are up by two points like your scenario of their win. 706 00:40:15,400 --> 00:40:22,760 And he plays a two man defensive line rush with, you know, eight, nine in coverage and 707 00:40:22,760 --> 00:40:25,280 you know, gives up easy completions for a field. 708 00:40:25,280 --> 00:40:26,280 Yeah. 709 00:40:26,280 --> 00:40:28,520 Over under half a one of those. 710 00:40:28,520 --> 00:40:33,240 I'm going to say under because I think the bills do win this game. 711 00:40:33,240 --> 00:40:38,360 But I think I'll hedge and I'll say the bills might win in spite of. 712 00:40:38,360 --> 00:40:39,680 Oh, I like that one. 713 00:40:39,680 --> 00:40:41,840 His bad decisions like Josh gets the ball last for 714 00:40:41,840 --> 00:40:42,840 once in a while. 715 00:40:42,840 --> 00:40:45,000 These games maybe that that is 100 percent. 716 00:40:45,000 --> 00:40:48,760 The answer for me is that the bills need to they need to finish this game on offense 717 00:40:48,760 --> 00:40:49,760 or the lose. 718 00:40:49,760 --> 00:40:50,760 Oh my God. 719 00:40:50,760 --> 00:40:51,760 Yes. 720 00:40:51,760 --> 00:40:52,760 Absolutely. 721 00:40:52,760 --> 00:40:53,760 They need to be kneeling down at the end or they have lost this. 722 00:40:53,760 --> 00:40:54,760 Yep. 723 00:40:54,760 --> 00:40:55,760 100 percent. 724 00:40:55,760 --> 00:40:58,600 Mahomes needs to be on the bench in the last 90 seconds of this game. 725 00:40:58,600 --> 00:41:00,720 Otherwise, I mean, it's going to be a bill's loss. 726 00:41:00,720 --> 00:41:05,040 And there's nothing more delicious than the pouting Mahomes on the bench knowing he's 727 00:41:05,040 --> 00:41:06,040 lost. 728 00:41:06,040 --> 00:41:07,040 I love it. 729 00:41:07,040 --> 00:41:09,520 Like I just thought I'll just play that on a repeat and just chocolate. 730 00:41:09,520 --> 00:41:10,520 I love it. 731 00:41:10,520 --> 00:41:11,520 I love it. 732 00:41:11,520 --> 00:41:19,540 So the second prop bet over under penalty differential four and a half in favor of the Kansas City 733 00:41:19,540 --> 00:41:20,540 Chiefs. 734 00:41:20,540 --> 00:41:24,980 So the Kansas City Chiefs, JJ, are one of the least penalized squads in the league this 735 00:41:24,980 --> 00:41:25,980 year. 736 00:41:25,980 --> 00:41:30,520 They they've got 45 total penalties, which is good for 21st in the league. 737 00:41:30,520 --> 00:41:35,400 The bills have 65, which is good for a number the number nine clip in the league. 738 00:41:35,400 --> 00:41:37,740 So the bills, we talked about this a little bit. 739 00:41:37,740 --> 00:41:40,800 They have been penalized pretty frequently this season. 740 00:41:40,800 --> 00:41:45,160 The Chiefs, you know, they usually have something in their pockets when it comes to the refs. 741 00:41:45,160 --> 00:41:46,160 So what do you think? 742 00:41:46,160 --> 00:41:50,120 Do the Chiefs win the penalty differential in this game? 743 00:41:50,120 --> 00:41:52,280 The thing in their pockets is the refs. 744 00:41:52,280 --> 00:41:55,680 Interestingly enough, I think I'm going to smash the over. 745 00:41:55,680 --> 00:41:59,880 I think that the bills have at least six more penalties than the Chiefs in this game 746 00:41:59,880 --> 00:42:01,760 call them even at home. 747 00:42:01,760 --> 00:42:07,760 This land, the head referee, Chiefs are five and oh when he's their referee. 748 00:42:07,760 --> 00:42:08,760 Unbelievable. 749 00:42:08,760 --> 00:42:11,440 He's never refed a bills and Chiefs game. 750 00:42:11,440 --> 00:42:15,920 I think the I think the bills are three and one when land has one of their games to listen. 751 00:42:15,920 --> 00:42:17,520 He's going to have to pick a favorite kid in this game. 752 00:42:17,520 --> 00:42:18,960 That's what it's going to come down to. 753 00:42:18,960 --> 00:42:23,040 Yeah, we're going to come on land, either play it straight or definitely pick somebody 754 00:42:23,040 --> 00:42:24,760 and favor them to 100%. 755 00:42:24,760 --> 00:42:25,760 That's what it's got to be. 756 00:42:25,760 --> 00:42:26,760 That's what it's got to be. 757 00:42:26,760 --> 00:42:28,400 All right, man, you got any props? 758 00:42:28,400 --> 00:42:34,480 Yeah, I've got one over under half of a Matt Collins touchdown. 759 00:42:34,480 --> 00:42:35,480 All right. 760 00:42:35,480 --> 00:42:40,560 So listen, I hate love that you have brought this up because I've been a Mack Hollins derider 761 00:42:40,560 --> 00:42:42,600 over the past couple of weeks. 762 00:42:42,600 --> 00:42:45,960 I have like listen right and I feel justified in that. 763 00:42:45,960 --> 00:42:46,960 I'm sorry. 764 00:42:46,960 --> 00:42:48,440 I like Matt Collins. 765 00:42:48,440 --> 00:42:49,440 Everyone should like. 766 00:42:49,440 --> 00:42:50,880 He's a very likable guy. 767 00:42:50,880 --> 00:42:52,200 He's a great leader. 768 00:42:52,200 --> 00:42:57,800 But if your go to play in the fourth quarter of any game, third and seven in the red zone 769 00:42:57,800 --> 00:43:01,200 is a slant to Mack Hollins, something else has failed. 770 00:43:01,200 --> 00:43:02,200 Right. 771 00:43:02,200 --> 00:43:03,200 Yeah. 772 00:43:03,200 --> 00:43:06,320 I think there's been some injuries to this wide receiver room. 773 00:43:06,320 --> 00:43:10,320 And Hollins stepped up big time last game. 774 00:43:10,320 --> 00:43:14,040 I'm going to say under just because I don't think there's going to be a lot of touchdowns 775 00:43:14,040 --> 00:43:15,040 to go around. 776 00:43:15,040 --> 00:43:19,240 And I think this is going to be like a weird Ray Davis gets one, Josh Allen maybe gets 777 00:43:19,240 --> 00:43:20,240 a couple and that's it. 778 00:43:20,240 --> 00:43:24,280 I'm going to say under, but that doesn't mean I don't think Hollins has the ability 779 00:43:24,280 --> 00:43:28,560 to be a positive factor in this game, especially given all the injuries. 780 00:43:28,560 --> 00:43:29,560 Okay. 781 00:43:29,560 --> 00:43:31,600 Yeah, I'm going to smash the over. 782 00:43:31,600 --> 00:43:35,040 I think Mack Hollins continues his his play in clutch moments. 783 00:43:35,040 --> 00:43:36,440 He's he's he's impressed me. 784 00:43:36,440 --> 00:43:40,800 I said a couple of weeks ago that he has no business being on the field on offensive 785 00:43:40,800 --> 00:43:41,800 snaps. 786 00:43:41,800 --> 00:43:45,960 He should be a special teams only player after a number of drops during the bill's losses. 787 00:43:45,960 --> 00:43:49,200 Because I am very I go very hard in either direction. 788 00:43:49,200 --> 00:43:52,080 I do not stay consistent week to week. 789 00:43:52,080 --> 00:43:55,040 But now I'm a Mack Hollins fan on the field. 790 00:43:55,040 --> 00:44:01,760 So my last one is over under Josh Allen, 10 and a half rushes. 791 00:44:01,760 --> 00:44:07,840 Oh, he has to give you historical context against all opponents in his career. 792 00:44:07,840 --> 00:44:10,800 He averages six to eight rushes per game. 793 00:44:10,800 --> 00:44:12,160 And that's including scrambles. 794 00:44:12,160 --> 00:44:13,160 This is not designed. 795 00:44:13,160 --> 00:44:18,240 Okay, I was going to ask for that clarification because yeah, so this is yeah, all rush attempts 796 00:44:18,240 --> 00:44:20,920 that include scrambles. 797 00:44:20,920 --> 00:44:26,080 And so across his career, it's been less than 10 but 68 against the chiefs, he averages 798 00:44:26,080 --> 00:44:27,080 10. 799 00:44:27,080 --> 00:44:30,200 Because the offensive line can't protect him against the chiefs. 800 00:44:30,200 --> 00:44:31,200 That's what it is. 801 00:44:31,200 --> 00:44:34,520 One, they can't protect him to the chiefs have such a good run front that the bills have 802 00:44:34,520 --> 00:44:37,800 to play the numbers advantage of running with their cube. 803 00:44:37,800 --> 00:44:41,360 So you know, it's interesting because I was I pulled these numbers before this pod. 804 00:44:41,360 --> 00:44:44,040 I didn't know if I'd have a chance to drop them in or not. 805 00:44:44,040 --> 00:44:49,640 But Josh Allen has only had 16 designed QB scrambles for him, according to FTN. 806 00:44:49,640 --> 00:44:55,120 The rest of his rushes 65 have come off of just organic scrambles, right? 807 00:44:55,120 --> 00:44:58,600 Where he's breaking the pocket he's got to take off. 808 00:44:58,600 --> 00:45:04,440 I listen, I still have a sinking feeling this offensive line is not as good as the metrics 809 00:45:04,440 --> 00:45:06,280 will say they are. 810 00:45:06,280 --> 00:45:11,240 But regardless, the bills offensive line is always struggle against the past rush for 811 00:45:11,240 --> 00:45:14,760 this Kansas City Chiefs team just because the waste bags draws it up. 812 00:45:14,760 --> 00:45:19,520 I'm going to say over because I do think there's going to be some quick pressures on Josh 813 00:45:19,520 --> 00:45:21,040 and he's going to have to break contain. 814 00:45:21,040 --> 00:45:22,040 All right. 815 00:45:22,040 --> 00:45:23,200 Yeah, I'm also hitting the over. 816 00:45:23,200 --> 00:45:27,440 I think that it may not be a lot of design runs, maybe two or three of those. 817 00:45:27,440 --> 00:45:30,760 But I do think that we're going to see Josh Allen have to convert some third downs on 818 00:45:30,760 --> 00:45:32,600 his on his legs or attempt to. 819 00:45:32,600 --> 00:45:33,600 Yeah. 820 00:45:33,600 --> 00:45:34,600 Yeah. 821 00:45:34,600 --> 00:45:36,800 Team seem really ready for the design, the design Josh Allen rush game this year. 822 00:45:36,800 --> 00:45:40,960 We've talked about it a couple of times, but the organic scrambles absolutely. 823 00:45:40,960 --> 00:45:42,760 So JJ, that's it. 824 00:45:42,760 --> 00:45:44,320 Our first YouTube pod, man. 825 00:45:44,320 --> 00:45:45,320 First YouTube pod. 826 00:45:45,320 --> 00:45:46,320 Yep. 827 00:45:46,320 --> 00:45:48,680 So this is going to go live here in the next couple of minutes for all of you listening 828 00:45:48,680 --> 00:45:49,680 at home. 829 00:45:49,680 --> 00:45:52,920 Please feel free to drop us a like, subscribe to our new YouTube channel. 830 00:45:52,920 --> 00:45:54,800 Comment on the on the video. 831 00:45:54,800 --> 00:45:55,800 Give us a comment. 832 00:45:55,800 --> 00:45:57,200 We love your feedback unless it's bad. 833 00:45:57,200 --> 00:46:01,040 In which case, we'll ignore it because our self esteem can't handle that. 834 00:46:01,040 --> 00:46:06,160 And then grab us wherever you get your spot, your podcasts, Apple Spotify, drop us a review 835 00:46:06,160 --> 00:46:07,160 there. 836 00:46:07,160 --> 00:46:08,160 Give us a follow. 837 00:46:08,160 --> 00:46:09,160 We appreciate it. 838 00:46:09,160 --> 00:46:10,160 And 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