Welcome back to the Buffalo Bread podcast. We have our week 10 recap of the Buffalo
Bills burst the Indianapolis Colts, which was played this past Sunday in Indianapolis.
That game, I think it turned out better in some ways than either of us expected, given
the Colts history this season, Dan. What do you think about, you know, what are your general
feelings about the way that game kind of shook that shook out?
The Bills are the master of the ugly 30 point game. And it's something that I'm coming
to accept at this point. What I do like about how this team can win is that similar to last
season, they can find a multitude of different ways to beat you if you're a certain tier
team. Now again, this is a group that's about to be tested with a five game stretch coming
up here on the schedule that starts with Kansas City. But for the opponents that have been
put in front of the Bills, they have done a really good job winning in a variety of ways.
And JJ, the positive news of you're a Bills fan is that this is an eight and two team
with an extended lead in the division. And it doesn't feel like yet they have put together
a complete game of football. It feels like they're still fighting themselves a little
bit in the past game in particular, which I'm sure we're going to get to in this recap.
So if the Bills can hit the end of the season in stride with all of these components sliding
into place on the defense and the offense, this could be a pretty scary team come playoff
time.
Yeah, absolutely. I think that that's one of the things that you kind of hear as a refrain
from many of the Bills beat reporters is that this is a team that still hasn't played its
best football. And once they do, it could be a scary team. But how many times have we
heard that, you know, narrative throughout the Bills seasons under Sean McDermott? Sometimes
Yeah, exactly. Hopefully. Sometimes it's a matter of, you know, you have to ask the
question of like, we, is it just that they're always going to be inconsistent? I mean, in
the playoff exits, they've had inconsistency in their, you know, stretches of losses at
times they've had inconsistency is, is the answer that this team is always going to be
just slightly inconsistent. I think there's a couple of things that in the past have held
this team back from really reaching its ceiling. First, it's the general health of the squad.
Like it feels like every year we're dealing with some sort of debilitating injury, be
it on the offense or be it on the defense. This season in particular, well, I know a
lot of the, the press and the attentionals on the Milano injury and some of the injuries
on the defense. JJ, the health of this past catching room, I think has made it really
hard week to week for Josh in a room full of basically new weapons outside of Concade
and Shakir to really find a rhythm with this group offensively. And it's not going to
get any better against KC in the coming week, because Keon Coleman, we know for sure is
going to be out for that game. McDermott, sorry, ruled him out. And a Mari Cooper is
a big question mark. So I think year after year, it's this a different version of the
same story, which is why the bills struggle to often reach their ceiling and hit their
stride when we want them to. Yeah, I mean, you're absolutely right. I think that maybe
that's a better kind of thing to focus on with why this team always seems to be inconsistent
is they are almost always missing key contributors. And that can be said about almost all teams
at all times in the league. But it is it's peculiar with the bills because the misses
are often such critical pieces of very important parts of their game in order to put a full
and complete game together. In the Sean McDermott defense, you need your safety is healthy, you
need your middle linebacker healthy. And you need kind of the kind of right up the gut
of your defense, you need your defensive tackles healthy. And those are three areas that the
bills have struggled with having injuries over the years linebackers, safeties and DBs
in general, and then tackles. And so I yeah, I think it's it's interesting that that's
kind of part of it that plays into it for sure. But I also think it's something that
no team in the league can really count on no team can say, we're 100% healthy or we
can count on being that the year the bills the 13 seconds year is one of the healthiest
seasons the bills have had overall. And I think that that showed in their kind of absolute
trouncing of the Patriots and the playoffs. And then of course, in playing the event there
the eventual Super Bowl champion chief so hard in that game, I think that in the games
that they were, you know, put all together, all three phases of football performances.
I think of the first Dolphins game, I think of the Jaguars game. In those kind of efforts,
in those complete victories. I don't know, not even the undefeated chiefs seem to be
a team that could stand up to that level of precision and efficacy. And so I know we're
going to talk about that down, you know, down the line and our chiefs preview later this
week. But it's really a question of like, is this the team that can get it all done?
And you're right, I think that maybe the biggest difference with so many teams we've seen who
were absolutely considered contenders for good reasons, mostly because of Josh Allen,
but also because of the way this operation has run, the defense and the way that they
do not give up big plays. smartly coached smartly played. Is this the team that can finally
kind of get hot at the exact right time and maybe not be completely derailed playing off
the couch retired players as starting linebackers in the playoffs because they're so injury
depleted they have no other option. No shaded AJ Klein, by the way, who who you are naming
namelessly. I I would not expect him to have performed
any better given his status in life. It's just they were in a pinch and that he was
the only answer. Yep. Yeah, yeah, he was not put in a position to succeed. But where the
bills did to see JJ was their game against the Colts this week. It was the first time
the Colts this season in 10 weeks had lost a game by more than one score or participated
in a game to conclusion that ended with them losing or winning by more than one score.
And the bills, I think other than a garbage time touchdown at the end of the game, I think
the bills held their own for a majority of that game. The run defense look shaky in the
first half as it has in so many games this season. And then per the per the way it was
designed, the game script on offense went more their way. The Colts had to rush less.
Jonathan Taylor only seven rushes in the second half for a total of five yards, the bills
absolutely locked him up. But also the offense was doing its job not as efficiently as we've
seen it, but it was doing its job flipping the game script in a way that was going to
be much more favorable to the bills defense complimentary football, as McDermott likes
to say, and force the Colts to kind of play into their hands, which is ultimately what
happened. JJ, we were also so close to nailing our prediction about flacco getting benched
for Anthony Richardson. We literally said, this feels like a game where it could get
away from flacco and he could throw like three picks. And then at some point we're seeing
Anthony Richardson. So flacco did indeed throw three picks. And he had a fumble for total
turnovers in this game, sacked four times by the bills as well under what seemed like
constant dress and another big Gregor so game here. So JJ, it was not pretty at times, but
it was exactly the type of when you expect this bills team to put together these days.
Where do you want to start? Bill's offense or bills defense?
Let's start with bills defense. And she already sort of kind of teed off on that a little
bit with the flacco sacks, interceptions and fumble lost. I really liked what I saw from
this defense. And while I was watching this game, the thing I kept thinking about is our
conversation about the bills run defense and how but by the look test, it seems completely
porous and miserable and terrible. But once you dig into the advanced analytics in terms
of rush success rate, EPA per rush, that they've really been top five top 10 in the league,
they've actually started in the last three or four games, hitting hitting beyond top
and working their way towards the upper part of the league in success on stopping the rush.
And this game, even with, you know, 100 and what was it, 121 rushing yards by the Colts,
their ability to cancel successful rush pit plays by the Colts was at an all time high
in terms of, you know, they were not Jonathan Taylor busted one big run, but for the most
part, his yards per carry was pretty low. And he was not getting at least 40 to 50% of the
expected yards on each play that he needed to get in order to help them stay ahead of
the sticks. And so this was a perfect example of they they only played heavy boxes 28% of
the time. And they still kept the rushing game down with who is a really excellent runner
in this league still elite at his age.
Yeah, absolutely. And you know, it, Greg Russo continues to impress in both the run game
and the, and the pass rush game, I feel like we've lauded him a lot this season. I want
to turn it over to Taryn Johnson, not only because he had that that awesome pick six
to start the game, I mean, what a way to start the game on defense. But when I looked at
a lot of the film from the Miami game last week, we had noted in that recap that at Oliver
seemed to be getting pushed around by Liam Eichenberg, any chance he got. What the what
Mike McDaniel did neutralizing Taryn Johnson in the run game, we're so often he kind of
has that fit over third linebacker. I mean, finding a way to release a guard in the second
level to neutralize Taryn Johnson, having a wide receiver erase Johnson from from run
stop coverage was really well done. Johnson was way more on his game finding his run fits
a lot quicker and defense. He to me JJ is such a crucial part of this defense. And it seems
like he is even in in Bill's media world where he is so respected. It feels like game
to game because Russo is coming up with these splash plays. We are forgetting how integral
Taryn Johnson is to what they want to do not just in the past defense game, but in the
run stop game as well. And this is a game where because he found his fit so quickly,
he was really a difference maker, particularly in that second half and shutting down this
cold rush offense.
Yeah, Taryn Johnson is you know, I'll say he's the absolute best slot corner in the
entire NFL at fitting the run. You don't need to remove him and add a third linebacker
and they don't. Because he fills gaps like like he's Khalil man, he fills gaps like he's
twice his weight and twice his strength. And it's excellent to I mean it's the most exciting
thing to watch as a Bill's fan because you know you got your guy he was what like a fifth
round pick that is such value in the draft to have to turn around a Weber state product
into the best run support corner in the league and one of the best coverage corners in the
league in the slot. So yeah, Taryn Johnson's game is massive. Just quick note on Greg Rousseau,
his his ability to set the edge in the run is like just sexy as hell to watch game in
game out, you watch him like he works. He's being actively engaged in blocks. And he's
still just tackling running backs. He just like doesn't care that there's a human being
who's like 320 pounds pushing on him with incredible you know, benches 600 pounds strength.
He's just like now I'm just going to keep working my way towards the edge and turn
this thing up inside and use my giant pterodactyl wingspan to bring this guy to the ground.
It's amazing.
It is he said he's having such a good season to at a time where we really needed him to.
Now I know sack production has not been where folks would like to see it. But he is a difference
maker on almost every play it feels like. Now we have joked and by we I mean me of putting
Greg Rousseau in the Jerry Hughes zone where it's all pressure no sacks. But dude, his
pressure is meaningful. He's laying hands on QBs. He's eating up double teams to your
point earlier setting the edge on the run in a way we have not seen an edge defender do
on this unit in a very, very long time. He is having he is having as good a season minus
the sack production as one could have and he is an actual legitimate disruptor. And to
me JJ it's it's made all the more amazing by the fact that no one else on the defensive
line safer Dwayne Carter I think in spurts when he's been healthy has played up to the
level we thought they could. I mean to Juan Jones we talked about it last week is getting
erased and double teams at Oliver. You're you're coming last week about his little piston
arms not pistoning anymore right. He seems a little bit slow on the get off. And it just
is he's getting pushed around by interior offensive lineman. And then eponnes has always
been inconsistent in his run fits but he's had some splash splash sacks. So Rousseau is
doing this I don't want to make it seem like it's this Herculean effort where he's the
only guy producing because there are other guys producing in spurts but he is the only
one in my mind for my money JJ who's doing it consistently weekend and week out and in
meaningful spots as well. So Greg Rousseau give everyone every all the listeners another
analogy to Greg or to I'm sorry to at Oliver's hand fighting and Oliver last season was a
expensive Vitamix blender. He was the blades in the bottom of a Vitamix blender. Anytime
somebody tried to get hands on him in terms of how his little arms were swinging around
in ferocious little circles. This season he's like your grandpa's Oster that has been hand
down four generations cannot can no longer make a smoothie and only one half of the blades
are still there. That is like that's it's so like people get their hands on him and
they stick to him and that's never happened in his career. I don't know what happened
to at Oliver. Also it. Go ahead. Yeah. I was going to say also as an aside. I think we
both I think Dequan Jones was sort of playing out of his mind through week five last year
and this is more accurate to what you see what Dequan Jones game is.
Yeah. I listen I appreciate what Dequan Jones has meant to this defensive line. You could
argue that since star LaTula lay was on the squad he has been the best running mate for
Ed Oliver on that defensive line. My concern was always his age the the tread on the tires
so to speak and how quickly at that position decline comes as you age out of it. And I
just think we're seeing that with with with Dequan Jones especially when you take into
account the severity of the injuries that he's had pile up over the past couple of seasons.
I think his decline was somewhat inevitable that we hoped he could stave it off for a
little bit of time. And listen he's a veteran player. Maybe he's got some juice left for
a for a hopeful playoff run here but he looks pretty ineffectual at this point. JJ another
area I want to point your attention to is in the secondary because while while this Buffalo
Bill secondary Taryn Johnson the surprising playoff DeMar Hamlin Taylor wraps consistency
and of course the lockdown nature of Christian Benford have all been really great stories.
It result Douglas seems to be as as Benford's running mate seems to be struggling over the
past couple of weeks and past coverage over the past and by couple I mean four weeks over
the past four weeks QB's have an average QB rating of one 17.5 when they're targeting
result Douglas. Now listen when you're going when you're going up against the Buffalo Bills
you do not want to test Christian Benford too often. So of course Douglas is going to
see his fair share of reps come his way but still JJ based on what we saw last year and
the fact that this dude is an opportunistic corner who when he closes in separation seems
to come away with a pick he hasn't been generating a ton of turnovers over this this latter part
of the first half of the season and he's allowing a lot more separation on average than he did
last year and he's giving up a lot more yak yak so far over the last four weeks than he
did to start the season as well. JJ are you concerned about Rizul Douglas being right
now maybe a sneaky weak link in that secondary.
I am because I've noticed the same thing you have in that he has not been the kind of tenacious
in your face corner that he showed out to be all last year after the trade deadline. I'm
not sure what's going on he he hasn't really had any reported injuries of any kind or anything
that would cause him to be like you know responding a little bit slower to coverage snaps.
So yeah it's a curious thing but it also in a lot of ways you know it sort of makes the
the makes the fact that the bills did not choose to extend him and that he's playing out the last
year of his deal make a little bit more sense in that they might know know something of course
seeing him every day in practice or in the game to say that what he was presenting last year with
what was it like in an interception for consecutive games or something like that like that that was
not necessarily his regular standard production and might have been sort of a you know a fluke
a little bit that would make some more sense. I'm all I'm gonna say they have Kyrie Lym for one more
year if they feel like Christian or Christian Benford is the guy right and then Russell Douglas
is not getting it done maybe it's Kyrie Lym's opportunity to earn a starting job.
He's played well in the limited reps we've seen him this season he's managed to I think
maintain his physicality without getting flagged so much for his pure aggression and I think that
was the thing by and large that was holding him back from being a regular part of this rotation
but I agree with you listen ride with Douglas it wasn't too long ago we were calling Douglas and
Benford the potentially the best cornerback duo in the league or at the very least in the AFC East
ride with it but I do think it's a trend worth noting especially as we head into this stretch
where we're going to be facing Casey Biowik San Francisco LA and Detroit those are teams with
legitimate wide receiver weapons and it's going to be very very interesting to see how how Douglas
holds up at the end of that stretch you could be looking at it's especially to JJ if the bills do
in fact have the division locked up by early December you could be looking at Kyrie Lym getting a
little bit more run to see what his usage is going to be like in the postseason and I like it because
I think that Kyrie Lym a couple of things that I was always really upset about after the Kyrie Lym
Elym pick when he would get on the field is that he didn't have a great feel for zone coverage he
didn't know how to squeeze routes from his designated zone he would sort of hit his landmark and just
sit there as people gained separation around him or he would hit his landmark stay there and then
lock onto one target in his zone and not recognize that there was somebody sneaking behind him in
coverage and so those things have actually improved quite a bit in kind of rewatching the Colts game
in in all 22 for his few snaps and then just other times throughout the season that he's been on the
field especially late in games when the bills are winning he's shown out pretty well and then of
course the game that Christian Benford was was fully out Kyrie Lym has presented pretty well.
Yeah absolutely JJ I want to flip it over to the offensive side of the ball here
and kind of in the same way that we went good and bad on the defensive side of the ball I want to
do the same thing offensively but I want to start with bad because I want to end at a high note
because I think there was more to like about the bill's offensive effort than the tape and the
stats would allow but I want to start with something and I want to get your take Dalton
Kincaid now I know he's struggling with an knee injury looks like he got pretty banged up in this
Colts game but this has not been the season we expected from Kincaid now granted tight ends it
takes them a while to find their fit in the league and this is only his halfway we are only halfway
through the second season but JJ I think it's fair to ask is Kincaid regressing at this point
he is on pace for less total receiving yards than he had last season despite the fact that he's been
targeted at a higher rate this year than he was in his rookie year over the past two weeks he has
seen a total of six of 15 targets and he's only hauled in six of those catches for 56 yards over
the last two weeks his catch rate this season is his catch rate over expected this season is minus
12.5% now you pointed out various stootley I think last pod that they are using him in far more
downfield situations than he they did in his rookie year and his air yards per target has increased
from 5.5 yards last year to 7.6 yards this year which tells me yes they're using him further down
the field but JJ is this a is this a skill thing or is this a scheme thing because some of these
numbers for Kincaid they do point to a downward turn and not the growth and development we thought
we would get I worry a little bit it's a you know it's a skill thing because you know as you mentioned
hit scheme wise he's been asked to do more that he's unfamiliar uncomfortable with
but uh skill wise I think that there's something to be said for this dude's been battling injuries
it seems ever since he came into the league and that we've seen that from so many promising you
know young football players off of their rookie first year second year that they start to like
drag around these big time injuries because they're playing in a big time league and they look less
effective and sometimes that they recover fine sometimes you know it's the kind of thing where
they realize over time that they're always going to be injured and they play through it they they
buck up and other times it's like oh well they were not able to rise up to the physicality of the
league and um it was sort of too much for them so the question I have right now is like what
what did the second half of this season look like for Kincaid and most specifically the biggest thing
I'm interested in is what does Kincaid's usage look like in games if they can get some kind of a
stretch where Amari Cooper and Kean Coleman are both on the field and that's the hard part to
gauge too because as we have noted this wide receiver room has been a constant work in progress
you had Mack Hollins through the first three games who seem to be your wide receiver one despite all
logic pointing to the fact that he shouldn't um Khalil Shakir in and out early in the season
banged up a little bit Kean Coleman is a rookie finding his way the Amari Cooper piece seemed so
important because then everybody slotted exactly the way they needed it to be and it's it's no
coincidence that in the one game this this pass catcher room has played together fully healthy
Kincaid had one of the stronger games of the season so it could be it could be a skill thing
but I'm thinking scheme not that Brady is scheming up poorly for Kincaid but I do think they have a
vision for his skill set in this scheme but it does rely so heavily on everybody else doing
their one 11th on that offense for it to work um so I've got I've got concerns JJ that we might not
fully realize that vision because I don't know that this pass catcher room is going to be healthy
we know they're not going to be healthy for the KC game and that's a big one right so if you're Joe
Brady do you ask yourself I'm going to be without Kean Coleman against KC I'm potentially going to
be without Amari Cooper do I need to use this young tight end weapon in a different way than I have
been to maximize not just his role in the offense but try to maximize the offense because this was
not a great Josh Allen game either right and we saw for one of the few times this season the
Houston game being another notable one where his completion rate completion rate over expected
was below where it should have been and I mean he missed uh on quite a few throws in this game
that wide open look to Kincaid where it felt like Kincaid hitched a little bit on that first
quarter route where Josh just missed him but outside of that that was a very very that was a
that was a play that Josh should have connected on there just seems to be something JJ that is not
yet fully realized in this passing offense that I can't quite put my finger on I am talking it up
to health like I've been consistently throughout the course of this pod and I hope I'm right and I'm
hoping they're healthy we see what this pass game could look like because that feels like the one piece
of this offense they're lacking in identity their identity in the run game is very very clear very
very well defined and that's also where they've been the healthiest on the offensive line and in
the running back room this season the pass game though doesn't feel as quite well defined at this
point in the season yeah I think you're absolutely right I think that it's the biggest thing is like
who's available and how much reporter they have with Josh Allen it if I'm watching this team and
having so much familiarity watching every snap of Josh Allen's career um what I see is a lot of
players that he's not super comfortable with other than uh Kalo Shakir in the wide receiver room
and other than Dawson Knox in the tight end room and that includes Kincaid I think that they
not they being Allen and Kincaid put a lot of effort and energy this offseason into being more
familiar with each other spending time on and off the field um building that rapport but it
still doesn't seem like he perfectly knows you know how to hit Kincaid where he wants the ball and
and and where to kind of throw in on certain routes he tends to sail balls on Kincaid a little bit
more than than expected um and so I think that you know it's a question of where do we you know
let if we take a snapshot of now and then take a snapshot of the final game of the season of the
regular season that Josh Allen and the starting offense plays in what does that look like and
who steps up who stands out on the receivers um specifically the receiver room and tight end room
and who kind of fades into the background a little bit because I was actually I mean this colds game
I know Keon Coleman's not out there and no uh you know Cooper's not out there
Mack Hollins like impressed me I had said multiple times I didn't think he had any value to this
team other than a fourth or fifth wide receiver and special teams but he you know when he when
push came to shove he had a lot of very clutch moments and very excellent routes yeah absolutely
um clutch I think is the perfect way to define Mack Hollins performance in that game and listen
it through give the guy give the guy guy's flowers because we have been I think rightfully critical
of his outsized role early on in the season in the passing game um I love the fact too
that early on you saw Curtis Samuel Joe Brady try to get Curtis Samuel going as well I they're just
kicking the tires on so many of these pass catchers still JJ you wonder if the clock isn't going to
run out eventually because otherwise offensively this is a team that's got a pretty clear identity
that offensive line continues to great in the run game and they've just they get better it feels
like each and every game they're in addition to that their pass block win rate has gone all the
way up to fourth according to ESPN stats and info this year so this is a crew that is winning at
the point of attack in a way that we and by we I mean me didn't think could be replicated based off
the stellar performance of last year's offensive line but this group while they still have not
hit the statistical heights of last year's group they are approaching that point and they're approaching
that point at the right time and do James Cook like I not his best game statistically of the
season but when you watch it on film that dude is running fast he is running angry like he is
as complete a back as there is in the league I put him up there with the macaferies and the
Barclays as far as what his impact on this offense can be for the Buffalo Bills moving forward
again a lot to like there we saw Brady go a little bit away from the run game
in the second quarter which we've seen him do a few times in his play sequencing when it looks
like the defense is sort of figuring something out on the run game but he very he very wisely
went back to it particularly in the second half as the bills were starting to close things out
it JJ game script and always go the way the bills wanted it but they all ended up pulling out the
win in the end and again there's a lot to like about this off this team's offensive identity
if they can figure if they can get a passing game that complements this run game it's gonna be
it's gonna be a scary year to come play often yeah absolutely and that's I think the thing
that we talked about when we kind of opened the pot about the team being inconsistent
and variable game to game it's just like so many you know Josh Allen and Sean McDermott teams that
we've seen in years past if they can put put together all the phases that they need to nobody
will stop them it's just the reality of the talent that they've assembled and it's part of the reason
that I trust Brandon being anytime he makes moves because he pays attention to depth he pays attention
to the combination of players he's smart with his money and he's smart with his draft picks and I
I like the team I like the roster construction I'm very happy this season with the integration of
rookies into the lineup I can you know go for a little bit more specifically when it comes to
Cole Bishop Cole Bishop yes red Cole Bishop let's see it let's make it happen let's see some more but
I for the most part everybody else has played more than I believe they they normally would
you know I think we both are Javon Solomon fans I think we both are interested in uh Cedric Van
Prand Granger but without good this offensive line is playing don't mess don't mess with it just to
try to get a rookie on the field let him cook let him cook behind you know behind the scenes
and also you know when I look at James Cook and Ray Davis I see two two bell cow backs I don't see
a 1a 1b I see two backs who could both handle the 20 plus touches a game and so what that looks like
to me is that you know even as much as we might love James Cook if he commands a pretty big contract
at the end of next year we could probably see him walk and the bills try to get a compensatory
with Ray Davis and the wings ready to take that that workload absolutely and then plenty of draft
capital here lining up for the 2025 draft as being a great job accumulating a stable of draft picks
they could use to potentially build toward continue to build towards the future of this roster
all right JJ great thoughts on the win for the bills great win overall for the bills
we now head into chief's week my friend and I'm looking forward to talking about that one because
it's going to be interesting for so many different reasons but for all of you listening at home this
is the last time that you will have to listen only to this podcast because starting with our chief's
preview we are heading to YouTube but until then stream or download us wherever you get your podcasts
Apple Spotify and as always go bills go bills
you