Welcome back to the Buffalo Bread podcast. We are preparing for the week nine matchup
between the Buffalo Bills and the Miami Dolphins. Hated fish. Damn. It's always interesting
when we go play inside the division. And I think it's exceptionally interesting when
the dolphins now have to a back. The bills now have on Miller back. The bills will likely
have to roll Bernard back. And we are playing a one o'clock game at home. And it's pretty
desperate for the Miami Dolphins. And we expected the Seahawks to give them a lot of problems,
but it was a complete domination from top to bottom. Where do you want to start with
this one, my friend? I want to start with the the wondrous humility driven journey that
is this podcast, because you and I were so sure that the Seattle Seahawks were going
to give the bills fits and starts in their game last week. I now enter the Miami game,
not knowing what reality I should engage with. Because based on that Seattle game and based
on the overall track record of the Buffalo Bills this season, JJ, this Miami game should
be a cakewalk. But as we know, divisional games are weird. They tend to be very weird
when they involve the Buffalo Bills. And listen, the Miami Dolphins are coming into this this
matchup. And they are desperate. Their season quite literally is on the line. So listen,
the bills are going to get the dolphins best effort, which I don't feel like they got out
of Seattle. But JJ also think of the halfway mark to as we bridge the gap between the Seattle
game and the Miami game. There are lots of positive trends that the bills have going
for them. We saw some of it in the Seattle game. I think we're going to see a lot more
of it in the Miami game. And I'm ready to get into it.
Yeah, no, I think it's it's interesting to be a little bit more bullish on this matchup
than we would have been if we came out of Seattle with a loss, you know, in the worst
case, or in kind of the moderate case, a close victory or something where the bills had struggled
on offense or looked flat and in a half like they had in a few weeks prior. It's a different
world seeing how the bills came out. Specifically, I want to point out in that Seahawks game,
a couple of individuals, one, James Cook running with a physicality and exceptional vision
that he's always had, but it just seems to get sharper all the time. And then to Keon
Coleman sort of coming into his own as the prototypical big body, bully receiver that
the bills were drafting.
Dude, I have to tell you, Coleman continues to impress. And his his development at this
point, it feels like it's hit an exponential rate. And he is earning, I think a lot of
those Mack Hollins reps that we were begging for him to get in the earlier quarter of the
season. He's earning it by developing not just as a wide receiver, but doing the dirty work
that he needs to do in the run game. And he thoroughly seems to enjoy it as well, blocking
guys into the stand, not afraid to chop it up and really get into it one on one with
a lot of the DBs that he's facing down. Coleman's it's not just a skill development, it is the
attitude that he is bringing. He seems like a dude who is buying into the program at this
point and is absolutely ascendant. And I think it coincides very nicely with Khalil Shakir
getting healthy, the addition of Amari Cooper, and now sort of the hierarchy, the pecking
order, if you will, of this past catching room beginning to coalesce. So Coleman, this
feels, it feels real, like he's gone up against some really good DBs over the past couple
of weeks, and he's absolutely stood out. And then James Cook, I mean, listen, I know running
backs don't typically get second contracts in this league, but the evolution of cook,
I mean, dynamic just doesn't begin to explain it. Like we talked at the beginning of the
season about we did that exercise preseason, which running back room would you rather have,
right? And we were like, yeah, Miami's because they're fast. James Cook, who has never been
a slouch in the speed department, has added to his top end speed to go along with silky
smooth acceleration. He is now patient running north and south, waiting for holes to open
up. He's not just looking to bump it out to the outside all the time. And dude, he is running
through tackles with power. He was no slouch last season, when it came to yards after contact,
but that number has increased by about 60% the season. He's averaging over two yards
a carry after initial contact. He's running fast. He's running hard. He looks like he's
fixed his drop problem with past catches out of the backfield. And he has a go to weapon
for Josh Allen in this offense.
Absolutely. And I think too, the other thing that I observed with Cook's game is he has
that ability that some of the better bills running backs, you know, of years past and
certainly running backs across the league, the ability that I've always admired, which
is a play is never dead for James Cook. And he will squirt forward. He'll appear out of
a pile for four or five more yards. That was one of my favorite things about Fred Jackson
when he was playing for the bills was the contact balance and the fact that the play was never
over that he always turned what you'd expect to be a two or three yard loss into a positive
gain. Always fighting for extra yardage. I've really appreciated that. So I agree. I think
there's some benefits there, but those benefits could not be, you know, taking place for him
or for Ray Davis or for Ty Johnson, for that matter, without a dominant offensive line.
I'm really impressed with particularly in the Seahawks game, what that offensive line
did. They kept Josh Allen incredibly clean throughout the day. And then they also were
recreating the line of scrimmage two or three yards down the field repeatedly in normal
sets and then also in jumbo sets. And doing so, you know, if I'm going to get X's and
O's into it with the offensive line right now, way more with zone run than gap or power
run schemes, which has not necessarily been their bread and butter for so many years.
It was, you know, why are they doing zone runs? They just get gashed. They give up, you know,
negative yards, gap power and kind of tackle wrap. That's their jam. Those things are still
their jam, but now they're looking very, very good at zone. And I think it's because this
offensive line, you know, with the addition at left guard of Edwards, you know, he was
with the team last year. So the, the ability for them to build chemistry is, I think it's
finally gotten there where these five guys have played together now long enough and thankfully
been healthy enough throughout the season that their chemistry on zone running, which
is really all about, you know, paying attention to which gap is your priority and blocking
in a direction to keep, you know, lanes and seams clean behind you. You're sort of, you
know, clearing up as you go. It's like snow plow. You're trying to sweep everything to
the outside of you. And it really requires a lot of knowledge of how your players, besides
you are going to be using their techniques and then also what your running back preferences
are and then what your strengths are. And they all just have such good awareness of
each other themselves when blocking in that way to keep the seams clean and, and keep
everybody to the outside of the preferred running lanes. It was on, I think it was some
of the comments on one bills live this week was talking about the, the offensive linemen
in the huddle telling James Cook and Ray Davis where to look for the seam on a zone run play,
because they already have the sense from their film study and their own awareness in the
game of how they're going to be able to turn the opponents, you know, out. And that's just
a huge advantage if you're giving somebody kind of a cheat code with their vision to
get to a spot quicker. That matters so much in the run game.
And the Seattle defensive line, JJ, they're good. Now granted, they've been hurt and that
as a unit, they haven't gotten all the reps they've wanted to or felt that they needed
this season together to start the year. But that's a talented defensive front that Seattle
is rolling out there and a really talented defensive minded head coach as well. And
when you see how multiple this run game is, add to the fact that we are now starting to
see a proficiency in this team, throwing out of these jumbo sets that back even as early
as two years ago, we'd kind of roll out there just to see if we could get any extra push
or any extra juice in the run game. Now the fact that we are really putting teams in a
bind when we roll out this jumbo package about whether or not we're actually going to run
or pass and how effective we are at passing out of this set, it just it really has to
be confounding to opposing team defenses. And this was the thing JJ that was so frustrating
about the two losses that the bills had. Listen, the Ravens game kind of I feel like stands
alone. That was a bad matchup, right? But when you look at what the Ravens are bad at,
defending the deep past being susceptible to play action, there were a lot of things
that the bills could have done offensively in that game that could have exploited those
things. And I'm not saying bring the score even or two in the bills favor, but maybe
maybe a little bit more competitive. And the Houston game, which is the one I feel like
at this point in the season as we at the halfway mark is the one that really got away. Shotgun
runs, abandoning play action, not lining up under center. And then that was the game the
season ironically, JJ, we lined up the least amount of that jumbo set. And the the time
we the deformation pattern we saw was slanted or skewed more heavily towards 11 personnel
at a higher clip than we had seen this season. I just think the bills bread and butter is
establishing things with the run game, being able to fool teams out of that jumbo set and
then spread it out when they need to, but ultimately try to keep Josh under center and
work that play action game as much as possible. When they stick to that formula, this offense
really cranks and they really dictate game script to the opposing defense.
Yeah, absolutely. And I do think also the addition of a Mario Cooper made such a huge
such a huge difference to this team, even though I won catch for three yards is not
really anything in the game against the Seahawks and he might be injured actually for the game
against the Dolphins. But I do think that his addition at the top of the wide receiver
depth chart really kind of pushed and we talked about this too in previous pods really kind
of slotted everyone else in their into their preferred roles, take some pressure off of
Keon Coleman, not just with coverage, but with expectations. He's not, you know, absolutely
required to be the alpha dog, you know, wide receiver one straight out of the gate, he
can give give his game some time to develop. And it's developing really nicely. I say a
lot of nasty mean things about Keon Coleman in our texts because he disappoints me sometimes.
But I feel like I should keep it up because it's it's shown out he hears it, you know,
in the universe and and responds by making excellent plays.
Yeah, that's how everyone responds to our pod like Brandon Bean has a direct line with
us. Yeah. And we have such tremendous influence on the outcome of his decisions.
The best part about our entertain this sports entertainment we provide is how delusional
we are. I know. Now we're always wrong about stuff.
We are wrong quite a lot. So yeah, I've been quite wrong about Keon Coleman because he
is developing very nicely. But I think that a Mario Kooper's addition that says that
a lot. So the quick distributive passing game that Josh Allen has leaned on in protecting
the ball is, of course, his first interception coming in the game against the Seahawks. It's
it's been great to watch him develop in that way. And honestly, if he ends up at the end
of the season with like 34 35 passing touchdowns and like four interceptions and does not win
MVP, it's going to be an absolute atrocity. Yeah, I know. I mean, listen, Lamar seven
a really good year, though. Like, I mean, this I know, listen, I know. And this is this
is hard for Bill's fans to talk about because Josh, you could make an argument. Josh was
the MVP last year, 110%. Lamar seven a really good year. I I think regardless of awards
outcome this season, this is Josh's most mature, most complete season we have seen to date
at the halfway mark. It's not just the interceptions JJ. It's not just the the reduced continued
reduction in turnover worthy plays. It's just the composure that he seems to be dictating
the pace of this offense with even in losses, with the exception, I would say of the Houston
game, the Houston game as I have rewatched it a couple of times, and really dug into
that film. That was kind of like the digs is on the other side of the field and I got
something to prove, right? That was as as a as much of a sugar high Josh game as I think
we have seen in a really long time. And maybe I don't want to say the last one, I don't
want to jinx it, but maybe maybe coming less of the norm that it has been in the past,
based on where we see Josh's comfort level with his understanding of the offense, with
the weapons that he has around him, and with the support that he is getting from Joe Brady,
in the overall development and input that he has with this scheme. This feels to me
like the most complete Josh Allen season that we have had in his career, not the most spectacular
and spectacular tends to win in VPs. But this is the most complete version of Josh Allen,
I think we've seen in our in our time under his 10 years, QB.
I think so too. And I think it's also, you know, it's interesting because he's not running
the ball. I mean, he's got a design run here or there. He's got an audible run to get
a first down in a critical moment to close out a game. But he's not taking off with open
space in front of him as he has in years past, because he is really focused on the everybody
eats mentality and getting the ball to other guys in space. And it's shown to pay dividends
because a great majority of his yards are yards after catch. It helps that you have people
like Curtis Samuel or I'm sorry, Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman, who have been absolutely
outstanding after the catch with the ball in their hands this year. And I'm sure they'll
continue. But a lot of it too is Josh Allen's ball placement. I mean, he threw just a quick
wide running back swing pass to James Cook in the game against the Seahawks that touched
his fingertips exactly in stride over the over his inside shoulder. And like he did not have
to stutter. He did not have to move his body. He just put his hands straight out on the
ball just perfectly landed cupped in his palms to continue running. So some of that short
area touch is noticeably better for Josh Allen this year. And it makes such a difference.
It does. And you know, we've seen this market improvement over the last three weeks, coincidentally
coinciding with the Bill's three game win streak, where Josh is attacking the intermediate
parts of the field with way more efficiency. And the deep ball is finally starting to arrive
at as well. It was a struggle through the first four or five weeks of the season, JJ.
But over the last three, we've seen we've seen Josh's proficiency very, very sustainably
and consistently hitting the intermediate parts of the field this season. But now he's
starting to add some of that deep ball element. And it is interesting because they're not
just involving the guys who you would think they would involve in the deep game like a
Coleman. I believe they will eventually get Cooper involved. But they really want to use
Kincaid as a guy who can attack the seam 20 yards up. I went back because I said in the
Seattle game, this should be the Kincaid game because they're so bad at defending opposing
tight ends. And Kincaid had a great game, but it wasn't the blowout breakout game that
I had expected. So I went back and I watched all 44 of his targets this season, the incompletions
and the completions. And there is something noticeable, like a switch that flipped after
that Ravens game in the way that they're using him in the scheme. They were using him really
in a lot of that Khalil Shakir role where he was getting a lot of stuff behind the line
of scrimmage. These like pseudo screens, these really quick hits, like he, oh, you could
see the proficiency that he brought to the table settling in zone. But in man, he was
absolutely getting swallowed up. And you could see Brady thinking, well, maybe getting him
involved in the quick game, we'll get him cooking and get him going. Since that Ravens
game, absolute, absolute debacle from a play calling perspective, not to use Kincaid down
the field in that game. They have started to increase Kincaid's usage beyond the sticks.
And he has doubled so far JJ, the percentage of his routes run in targets that are hitting
him in that intermediate area, 10 to 19 yards, and that 20 plus area yardage as well. I think
what I'm seeing on film is that the plan they're formulating for Kincaid is that they want
him to factor in not just into the short zone breaking game, but they want him get him some
mismatches against safeties and linebackers and man coverage. And they want to use his
athleticism and speed to exploit downfield as well. And I'm excited to see a play out
because I think Brady has been gradually building Kincaid to that point. And as we transition
to the Miami game here in a little bit, I think that this could be the Dalton Kincaid
game where that happens, where he's a real legitimate threat down.
And I think you're right. I think that, you know, as kind of a preview of my thoughts
about that, the dolphins are pretty, they're pretty soft in the middle of their defense
going all the way up the seam at all three levels, defensive tackle, linebacker and then
safety. And that the safety I'm picking on right now is is our Jordan where we both love
as a player. I just think that he is late in his career and it shows it showed in the
game against the bills earlier in the season when he couldn't get the red angle, you know,
on the long James Cook run, it shows in every game I've watched at the dolphins this year
where he he's literally coming into the frame at the end of plays, seemingly having run
out of the locker room all the way to the field on the play. And it's because they're
playing him so deep and using him has basically a insurance, you know, he's like an insurance
policy against an over the top touchdown, because I don't I think they recognize the
dolphins, you know, defensive coordinators recognize that he's not going to be fast
enough or physical enough in down in them in the mess to make impact plays. So they're
playing him back as a deep middle, you know, safety valve. And it's not it's not great
for him because also he's he's taking bad angles are not able to get good angles.
Yeah, no, no. And like you are you are very nicely popping the cap here under Miami pre
game, which I want to get to. But before we get to that JJ, anything else you want to
say in summary of the Seahawks game, I mean, it was as complete a game as we have seen
the bills play this season on both sides of the ball.
I mean, I'll say I'll say that I was so terrified of Boyle Maffee and Derek Hall, because they
have such good pressure without sack or without blitzes. And it showed almost nothing. And
I think that you know, the bills, the dolphins also have a pretty high pressure rate without
a high sack numbers. And so there I still have those worries. But it's good getting
to the point where because of the Seahawks game and how dominant the offensive line was,
and how good the offensive line has been in past pro almost every week this season. I'm
going to give them the benefit of the doubt before I start projecting that they're going
to struggle against anybody. Because the pass rush for the dolphins is not exceptional.
They have a good pressure rate, but it's I think it's a lot more about who they've played.
Because some of the offensive lines they've played are very suspect. And so I like Josh
Allen to stay super clean in the dolphins game, just as he did in the Seahawks game
against what I think is a better pressure package and a better set of players.
Yeah, I agree. All right, man, let's move on to this Miami pregame, because I am very
excited to dig into it. So let's talk about a couple of things really quick here by the
numbers. So we have already seen the Miami Dolphins once. That game probably most notable
because it is the game where Tua went out with his third diagnosed concussion as an
NFL pro, miss subsequently miss the next four games has returned last week again in a loss
of losing effort against the Arizona Cardinals. And now they are on the road, JJ. They are
six point underdogs to these Buffalo Bills and Highmark for a 1pm start this Sunday.
So all trend lines JJ point to the bills having a massive advantage in this game. And it's
not just the historical advantage that they have had against the dolphins in Josh Allen
and Sean McDermott's tenure, but also for once, it looks like they might be the healthiest
team, at least on paper heading into this game. The bills are going to get Von Miller
back from suspension. All signs based on Sean McDermott's press conference today point
to Terrell Bernard being a go Christian Bedford still has a questionable status heading into
this game. So we could get a get our Kyler Elam game, which honestly, if there was a
game we were to get Elam, I would want it to be against the dolphins because best games
is a brove been against the squat. But outside of Benford, it looks like the bills are going
to be the healthier team. The dolphins are going to be without two real key components
on that defense. Zach Sealer, the defensive lineman and Javon Holland, all pro safety.
So all pro pro Jordan Boyer is going to have a new running mate in the high end of that
secondary here. So JJ, where do you want to start? You want to start with trend lines,
versus defense bills versus dolphins, flip it the other way around. What do you want to do?
Let's start with with the bills, defense versus often dolphins on offense. Because I think it is
such an interesting storyline with two are coming back with two having gone out most recently
against the bills under his own power by running headlong into DeMar Hamlin and giving himself
a concussion. I think it's interesting because the Buffalo Bill's pass rush is probably the best
one that the dolphins have seen this season and the best one they will see in terms of getting
pressure on Tua and forcing him to be uncomfortable. And also the bill's coverage unit is probably the
best at making sure that he doesn't get his first read. And so against the bills, the dolphins
threw three interceptions at three turnovers in the previous game and allowed two sacks. So
I think there's a chance that they see similar outcomes. I do love that Trell Bernard's coming
back. I hope he can stay healthy for a game because it seems like it's always something
this season for him. And I'm very worried about Christian Benford because I agree with you that
Kyrie Lim probably would, if there's a game for Kyrie Lim to have to relieve one of the starters,
this is a good one. But I also think that he's going to be susceptible to a double move. He's
going to be susceptible to some of the amazing ball handling that Tua does on playfakes and
quick pumps and things like that to the outside. And so I could see Kyrie Lim getting absolutely
cooked by Tyreek Hill or Jalen Waddle in this game if he is forced to play in relief of Benford.
But I mean, I love the fact that Javon Solomon has popped when he's had a few snaps here and there.
Greg Russo and AJ Epineza have gone back and forth with having dominant games,
haven't put one together to get both at the same time. But I think it's coming. And then
Ed Oliver looks like he's rounding back into perfect season form after having worked through
some injuries and slow starts. Yeah, absolutely, dude. I'm going to, we all know that the magic
number for Tua is 2.5 seconds. Can you make him hold on to the ball for longer than 2.5 seconds,
make him question his first read and thereby get pressure on him? In the bill's first game,
JJ, they brought a blitz on exactly 0% of his drop backs, like Sean McDermott has toyed in the
past with Blitzing Tua and not Blitzing Tua. And he's ultimately made the decision that we will
get pressure with four against what is an absolutely putrid offensive line. This offensive line last
season, JJ, was 30th in the league in past rush win rate. This season, it is 27th, has not made a
market improvement. Amazing when you consider the fragility in the health situation of their starting
QB, but that's neither here nor there. So McDermott in the first game on the road made the
decision, we're going to let Tua drop back, we're going to let our four best guys on any given drop
back get to him. And we're going to force him to get the ball out quickly. We're going to force him
to be inaccurate by closing off his windows and just dropping a bunch of guys into coverage. And
it was remarkably successful. Tua, while he completed 68% of his passes, his completion
percentage over expected was minus 5.4% in that game. And he was throwing into tight windows more
than he had in other situations this season. I JJ, I'm expecting the bills, if it ain't broke,
don't fix it. I'm expecting something very similar where they're going to get want to get pressure
with four. They're not going to bring a lot of unique blitzes is we have seen Babbage dial up
blitzes in timely situations more than we've seen the bills do in the past. I just don't think it's
going to be the case in this game. I think they feel comfortable with how they play to a they feel
play to a they feel very comfortable with how they play Tyree kill as well. Since 13 seconds,
Tyree kill has not had 100 yard receiving game against the Buffalo bills. And I think McDermott
and squad are going to game plan to have that trend continue. What does worry me against this defense
JJ is our susceptibility to play action. But again, this isn't something is isn't something that the
Dolphins do on a regular basis. In the first game that we played against them, only about 10% of
two us dropbacks came and play action they want to unshaken, they want him to get rid of the ball
quickly. They don't want his back to the defense at any given moment. So the thing that the bills
are the least least likely to defend in the passing game or least least able to the Dolphins don't
have the scheme or personnel to really exploit. So this is a weakness that I'm not really worried
about unless McDaniel is really going to dial up something that we have not seen him put on film yet.
So that leads us to the run game and what this Miami run game is going to do against the bills.
Now, we they didn't ever he most hurt in the first game. It was a lot of Devon HN and a little bit
of Jalen right now they've got all three of their Cerberus like rushing rushing attack intact. And
with to a back Devon HN is now a factor in the passing game again as well. JJ if there is a way
for the Miami Dolphins to keep the Buffalo Bills off balance and sustain drives and keep what has
been a very, very shoddy third down defense in Buffalo, keep that squad from from getting three
in outs, I think it's going to have to focus not just on the run game, but the overall use of Devon
HN out of the backfield as well. So JJ given that what are some of the things you think the
bills can focus on to not just shut down this this Miami run game, but also limit HN out of
the backfield as a pass catcher. Well, I think that in terms of the in terms of stopping the run,
the bills just need to be disciplined in their rush lanes and not to bite on eye candy because
McDaniel scheme is going to send a lot of different, you know, orbit motions and different, you know,
crossing motions that are going to try to get you to think play the play is actually going in one
direction. And then he's going to use counters and cutbacks and cut and zone cutback runs to give
Devon HN small gaps in the defense in order to slice, you know, slice upfield and make, you
know, nothing into something. I think that the bills showed against Kenneth Walker that they're
not very susceptible to that, even without Tyrell Bernard on the field. They were able to stay
disciplined. And I saw multiple times, they would crash all four of their down linemen in one
direction really hard, and then have both linebackers fill to the outside. So they basically have a
six person equally spaced, you know, pins are going up the field, you know, into the offensive
backfield. And it's a it's a tough scheme to be great at because essentially, if you're if you're
running back, who is good enough and a linebacker who's poor enough, that the running back can make
the linebacker miss, he's going to get a minimum of 10 to 15 yards, because he's going to get there
before a corner who's like hard on the outside to keep contain, or a safety is going to be able to
trigger downhill and get there. Or if the safety takes a bad angle, like we've seen tomorrow, Hamlin
do, it could be 2030 year touchdown. So I saw, but I what I saw in that scheme against Kenneth
Walker was that they were exceptional at doing their responsibilities, having a full six person
press in all of the applicable applicable gaps on the offensive line side, and then disengaging
from blocks and bringing him down. And that was without again, without Terrell Bernard,
with Taryn Johnson still kind of working his way back from injury. I just, you know, I believe in
that front so much if they're all healthy, and keeping a chain contained. I actually worry
way more about him in screens, and like in quick swing passes to the outside, because I think
that's where the bills are a little bit more vulnerable than straight up the gut in the run
or off the off tackle in the run. You know, it's amazing. It's amazing what a difference
three weeks makes, because the Buffalo Bills, especially after that Baltimore game,
were one of the worst teams in the league by a lot of metrics and rush defense. Now here we are,
four weeks removed from that game in three weeks, three straight weeks of wins, and some strong
performances for this Buffalo Bills rushing defense. They're now sixth in the league JJ
overall and rush defense efficiency and seventh and DVOA. This, they're still not great and
light box efficiency, which is all they play. They're 24th in light box efficiency. But I mean,
dude, does this, does this rush defense for Buffalo strike you as a top 10 unit?
No, it doesn't pass the eyeball test for it. But it's funny because what you see is,
they are excellent in the success rate metric. And that I think is where you see the difference,
because they look like they're getting gashed in the run. But the reality is, oftentimes,
teams are either starting behind the six because of penalties or because of lost yardage on a,
you know, on a previous snap, whether that's a sack tackle for loss or whatever it might be.
And so the Bills are like, yeah, it's third and 15, you can get seven yards on a rush,
which on the box score, doing that repeatedly throughout a game looks awesome for a running
back who then gets 80, 90, 100 yards. But in the reality, that's an unsuccessful play because you
did not get the yard to gain needed to maintain the ball and possession for your team. And so the
Bills sort of factor the situational football into the way that they play defense and are willing to
rally to the football and tackle to make sure that they don't give up any easy yards over the top.
Or, you know, any like medium yards that are going to get the first down. So I think that that's,
I get it, I get that the metrics are a top 10 defense, and it doesn't look like it because
of the way they kind of cleverly allow rushing yards as a as part of their defensive scheme
to discourage teams from passing purely, because they I think you can tell by watching the team
that there are certainly separation opportunities for elite receivers, of which the dolphins have
to, there are certainly opportunities for elite receivers to separate from the Bills coverage,
as good as Benford and as good as Douglas have been playing with a little bit of time. And so
just play a light box and declare that any NFL team worth its salt that has any sort of scheme
is going to probably audible into a run if you have nobody in the box and then clamp it all down
the moment the snap comes. Yeah, absolutely. Great explanation to, by the way, great like
in thought definition of advanced success metrics. Very, very good idea. All right, man,
let's flip it. Let's talk about the Bills offense against this surprisingly spry Miami defense.
And I want to start in one particular place. And that's with Jalen Ramsey. And I mean this with
no due respect. Jalen Ramsey sucks. He has had an awful season this year. And I can't think of a guy
who deserves it more than him. So Jalen Ramsey this season, I just want to I want to bathe myself
in the glory of these statistics. He is allowed on 21 targets this season per NFL next gen stats,
13 receptions, two touchdowns and 135 yards when targeted as nearest defender. And he is
playing at a career he is giving opposing QB is a career low 4.8 tight went to a 4.8% tight window
percentage, meaning that opposing wide receivers are having a field day getting separation on Jalen
Ramsey opposing QBs are passing at a passer rate of a 112.2 when they target Ramsey as the nearest
defender JJ. Josh Allen has made it a habit of targeting Jalen Ramsey, no matter what Buffalo
bill wide receivers meshed up against him. And previous games that have played against the Rams
and now the dolphins. Do you think actually, I know the answer to this, when Keon Coleman is lined up
with Jalen Ramsey, do you think it's going to be the most epic mossing of all time? So I'll say this,
if there's a game for Jalen Ramsey to get an actually get an INT against Josh Allen, it's
this one. Because I think specifically the situation you presented with Keon Coleman
against Jalen Ramsey, Josh Allen is not even going to look at the other reads on the field,
because he's going to want to have Keon Coleman, big boy Jalen Ramsey into the dirt,
and then teabag him on the goal line, like that just he's going to just want that so badly because
he's petty. And we love him for it. And Jalen Ramsey is a complete diva, you know, princess,
jerk, top to bottom. Jalen Ramsey is having a bad season. I'll tell you why. Because Jalen Ramsey is
a selfish narcissist, who is tired of putting in the hard work that's required to be a top tier
quarterback on a team that is losing. Like that, that is why I think he's playing poorly,
is because he's he's a front runner. He loves being, you know, in charge of everything. But he
when the chips are down, he'll be the first one to bail on you. Damn, cook, my friend cook. Yeah,
I love it. Freakin love. Oh, and I'm just gonna I can tell you already, whether it's
Khalil Shakir or Keon Coleman, hell, even if it's Mack Hollins, I think that Josh Allen's
going to try to feed the ball into Jalen Ramsey's coverage. And it's a smart thing to do if you
look at the metrics. And if you're watching the film, Jalen Ramsey is giving huge cushions. He
doesn't look nearly as fast as he is for somebody with four three speed. Well, I think that speed
is largely gone. I mean, listen, that when he was traded to Miami, there were rumblings about,
did the dolphins just trade for a safety or did they trade for CB one? And I think he has probably
reached the phase of his career where athletically, he's probably better aligned at the safety position
that he is to be left out on an island against opposing wide receivers at this point.
Listen, that is as much fun and as much glee as we would take from the pettiness of Josh
targeting Jalen Ramsey over and over again. I think the Buffalo Bills, as we had said in our
recap of the Seattle game, I think they need to establish the run. And this has been a surprisingly
good Miami Dolphins defense, not overwhelming. But given the pieces that they have, they have on
this defense and given that they have a first year defensive coordinator and Anthony Weaver,
they've done a good job. And overall efficiency metrics, they're no worse than 12. And against
the rush, they've been surprisingly effective. Now, not having Sealer in this game and not
having Holland in this game are really going to make a difference because those are two guys who
they rely on to crash at the point of attack in the rush game, particularly Holland, who Weaver
has just done such a great job moving him all over the field, putting him in the box, putting him
up high like, Javan Holland's just he's awesome. He's an awesome, awesome pro. And it's a shame
that he's not going to be able to play in this game. Because when I'm not rooting against the
Dolphins to lose, I really enjoy watching Javan Holland tape. He's just an excellent player.
But not having those two guys in the game should open things up, not just for the bills in the
in the rush game, JJ, but for the under center play action game as well, which we know is the
bread and butter of this unit. And this offensive scheme. So I want to see things start with James
Cook, and I want to see them evolve from there. However, if the Buffalo Bills line up an 11
personnel on 12 of their first 15 offensive possessions, and they're just running verts
down the field, I also wouldn't be sad about that either, because this is a Miami Dolphins defense
that you can expose the middle of the field deep on them. And because of, as we had mentioned,
the aforementioned or beloved Jordan poiers athletic decline, you can take the roof off
this defense pretty easily as well. Yeah, and I mean, they also, you know, with the
with the their cornerback room is is a little bit banged up to Caterco who is going to be out for
this game, who I think is a decent coverage nickel back, but is also the kind of player that like
they actually it might be more difficult to run on this team if they put Siran Neil in the nickel,
because the bills use that method to stop like the Patriots and stuff, you know, other teams
from doing power running attack against them by doing that exactly that. But that just means
you're going to like it's desperate, it's going to be desperately obvious that Siran Neil can't
keep up with Clial Shakir, or anybody in coverage because it's never been his strength. He's
basically a special team player who can also play kind of heavy nickel linebacker. And so
I think that, you know, with Caterco out and with Javon Holland out, likely out with Jalen
Ramsey's decline, it's they're left with just Kendall Fuller. And then like Marcus May, Elijah
Campbell, Camp Smith, like, they don't even have Storm Duck, who is not a good player, but has maybe
the coolest name of any cornerback in the league. It's a really great name. I'm glad you were able
to drop that reference on this. I need it to he's questionable. Storm Duck is questionable. But
I just want the call to be Keon Coleman over Storm Duck in the red zone for the D.D.
Keon Coleman truck Storm Duck. But so there, but all I'm saying is they have incredible
vulnerabilities, especially I mean, Javon Holland doubtful. Most most people inside like Marquis
Louis Jacques says he doesn't think there's any way Javon Holland plays in this game based on the
injury. And he's close to the team. And so are Marcel Louis Jacques, my apologies. And so I just
think that there's too many obvious opportunities in the past game to not take advantage. And so it
might be the exact flip of the original Bill's Dolphins game where they, you know, had short
fields and leaned on the run, Josh Allen didn't need to do much. This might be the, you know,
Josh Allen playing air guitar in the 50 yard line of Hard Rock Stadium type, type performance,
just based on the coverage vulnerabilities that have. Yeah, just one final note on their
and their defensive backfield. I'm with you. Javon Holland is my second favorite safety in
the league to watch play on film. Because Kyle Hamilton your first. No, he's a good one. He's
probably three. Buddha Baker is my number one. Oh, solid. I like that. I like that a lot. You
know who I want my favorite safety to be? I want it to be Cole Bishop. And that's a good segue
for you to talk about Cole Bishop. Yeah. So, so let me go on my weekly Cole Bishop right now. I'm
just kidding. I won't. I won't. But um, yeah, man, I mean, listen, and this is a good time to flip it
over to predictions. Sure to go wrong. Because I think when we have seen this in the past where
the bills have a clear advantage on paper, they've got a clear advantage with personnel.
We have seen games go in a direction that we often do not expect. And I think here is the thing
that is hard to quantify, but could tangibly affect the game. The dolphin season is on the line.
Like if you are the dolphins and you lose this game, you're now a full game behind the jets and
you still have to play the jets twice, I believe you've now gone 0 and 2 against the bills for the
umpteenth year in a row. It winning the division is pretty much out of the realm of possibility.
And because the AFC seems so wide open, you really need to go on a run and win all the
rest of your games and win out to even factor into the wild card. The dolphins really need this game.
And I think as a result of that, this could go one or two ways. And I don't think there's any in
between the dolphins either come out like people on fire and absolutely give the bills more than
they can handle. Or this is a team that is ready to hit Cancun in the off season. And it's only
going to be one of the two. I thought their game against Arizona was deflating. And you could see
it on their faces that even with two a back in that game, that's one that they like get away from
them, particularly that defense, right? We're going to get Jekyll or Hyde in this game from the
Miami Dolphins. And because of that, I'm having a hard time predicting a bill's blowout like a lot
of folks are. I think it's going to be a closer game than we anticipate, only because I cannot
imagine a Mike McDaniel lead team not put their best foot forward when literally their season is on
the line. So let's move let's move it over to predictions JJ. All right, with all that being
said, so let me give you the lines. Let me tell you all the fun stuff here. All right, so the bills
are six point favorites. The overrunner on this game is 49 and a half. So Vegas is like, Oh, these
guys are going to chuck it up against each other. I'm like, All right. All right, I don't know.
Based on recent recent track record, I would think the bill's defense would be a get slightly
more favorability there, but it is what it is. And the bills JJ have a clear advantage in a
lot of advanced metrics in this game as well. So let's start with final score prediction. Where are
you at? Dude, I can't I cannot see with with Terrell Bernard back in the fold with, you know,
Von Miller looking like he said recently on a media hit that he feels better than he's felt in
football in several years in terms of his health. And he was on a tear a sack per game for the first
three games for the suspension. So I just see him also being fired up to kind of make some
make some money on those big, you know, big money downs, third and longs.
I just see this bill's defense, you know, being too much for the the dolphins to handle.
Bill's 34 dolphins 20. Two touchdowns, two field goals.
Yeah, I've seen, man, I've seen so many predictions go the same way. I'm gonna I'm gonna tell you,
and I'm not completely throwing the first game of the season out that they played against Miami,
because I do think, listen, Miami is not a good road team. They have traditionally not been a good
road team under McDaniel. They're coming into a hostile environment with literally everything on
the line. That being said, the buff, the reality of this Buffalo Bill's defense is that it still
has a hard time getting off the field on third down, did a much better job against Seattle,
right, put Seattle on some very unfavorable third and long situations. But their track record
throughout the course of the season is that they're losing time of possession. This is a team
that went from second in time of possession last year, JJ, to 20th so far this year. And it's got
everything to do with the fact that this defense really struggles getting off the field on third
down. I think the Miami Dolphins, if they're able to extend drives, if they're able to really tap
into that run game, and utilize that three headed monster they have coming out of the backfield in
the right way, I really do think it's a matter of they could keep Josh off of the field just long
enough to make things a little bit squirrely for the bills. I'm still picking the bills to win,
but this could be a weird one. This could be one of those weird bills games we look back on,
we're like, oh man, we should have seen that one coming. I'm going to go bills 24,
dolphins 21. I think it's going to be close. I'm also going to take the under on this one too.
I just think Miami, I know they're known for their deep shots and going 80 yards at a time to
tie a recal. I just think they're going to have to play a smarter brand of ball and keep Josh off
the field, especially with all these defensive injuries they're suffering. See, and I get
everything you said is very smart and very football savvy. For me, though, the question becomes,
what has McDaniel showed against the bills, against the bill's defense that proves he can
overcome their pretty basic scheme that has been duped and copied by so many powers.
House teams in the league that if you have strong enough savvy enough coverage,
you can take away to his first read, you can shut down Terry kill, and then you can just focus on,
you know, collapsing on the run. So like it's just, I know it's been and I just haven't seen,
I haven't seen him do that. There's a reason that the dolphins are what like one and nine in
the past three years against teams above 500. There's a formula for it if you have a good
enough roster and I think the bills have a better than good enough roster.
Listen, I get it. Everything you said is 100% true. And this is a Miami Dolphins unit that is
last, last 30 second in the league in points per game. Like even when Tua was in, this was not an
offense that was necessarily clicking. And that's the, that's the struggle I have JJ because we are,
we are so tuned in and tapped into the bills. We know so well what their weaknesses are. And if we
were on the opposing squad, how we would exploit those weaknesses. The reality of this Miami Dolphins
team and it bears repeating because we said it earlier, the way that the bills can be had and
be gotten and be beat, the Miami dolphins don't have the scheme or the personnel to exploit that,
right? I just, I'm going on vibes with this one, man. I cannot shake that if the Miami
Dolphins come in and lay an absolute egg in this game and their season is over here at week, what
is it nine, right? I think that is a franchise that's having a large, a different conversation
about do we have the right head coach? Do we have the right personnel that we can sustainably keep
on the roster now that we've decided to give our franchise QB $50 million a year, right?
Like I don't want to put too much weight on a week nine game in 2024, but it just feels like if
the dolphins don't get a win, there is a lot of longer term trajectory conversations they need to
have as a franchise here if they can't get over the sum. Like if not now when for the squad, you
know what I mean? Oh, I agree. I think that motivation by desperation is a real thing, but it can't
make magical jumps in ability or skill. You know what I'm saying? Like, I get it. Yeah, they can be
the most motivated team in the entire universe because I do think you're right. I think that
there's a, there could be questions about jobs if, if they don't pull this one out, if they get
swept by the bills and then lose to their first game in the Jets, they're pretty much out,
out of the AFCs run for the whole season. I mean, they might not have to lose to the Jets. Like,
they might just be done, right? It's, it is. Listen, I get it, right? And their salary cap
situation is going to be a nightmare for a group guard, Lissa, whether or not they win this game,
they're basically giving $120 million a year to two wide receivers and a quarterback. That's not
a lot of room to build a roster and build a sustainable roster with depth either. And they've
got issues all over it. I get it. Listen, I get it. This is a Buffalo Bills podcast, not a Miami
Dolphins podcast. I get what you're saying, right? All right. Let's move on to props. You got props,
I got props. I got one prop for you this week. Yeah, go for it. What is it? All right. Over under
JJ on Jalen Ramsey giving up one and a half touchdowns. You think Josh Allen hits them for two?
I think Josh is going to want to embarrass the stupid. He does it every time. He tries so hard.
He tries so hard to make it. He does a really good job at it. I just think every time Coleman is
lined up against Ramsey in the red zone, I think, listen, I think Brady is going to do this because
we know that Brady likes to get player input on plays. I think every single run play that the
Buffalo Bills put out there, Coleman is going to be lined up against Ramsey to absolutely plant him
into the dirt. And I think when they're in the red zone, Coleman on Ramsey is going to be a thing
that Josh goes to nine times out of 10. Oh, absolutely. I'm going to take the under just because
you know, I think it's going to be it may be hard to get into those situations because I do think
that the Bills are going to have a lot of availability in the run game. And I think that if I'm going
to pick a player or players that I think are going to get the most run, it's Khalil Shakir
and Dalton Kincaid given how weak this this team is in the center. I know that Josh Allen is going
to want to punish jail in Ramsey. But I think that they're going to let Keon's blocking do that
and probably throw one up in the red zone to try to to moss him. But I don't know it's going to be
two touchdowns. So I'm going to take the under the under but not be not for a lack of trying.
Yeah, I know. So as I said before, he has given up two total touchdowns this season on 21 targets.
He may be targeted 21 times in this game by Josh. So I'm going to take the over just to be fun
because I would love to see it happen. I would love for Josh to single handedly double the
touchdowns allowed total for jail in Ramsey this season. I think it'd be amazing. All right,
dude, what prop do you got for me? Plus minus half defensive touchdown for the bills.
Oh, that's a good one. Yeah, your stuff's good. My stuff's petty. Your stuff's good.
I I I want to go I'm going to go over listen to has not played well against this this Buffalo
Bill's defense. He has been a bit of a turnover machine against the squad. His TD to INT ratio
against Buffalo is upside down. And we have noted that this is a team that does not play well on
the road. So I'm I'm going to go I'm going to go over as much as I think it's going to be a close
game. I do think the bills defense is going to have some opportunities and do result Douglas.
He's been jumping routes like crazy the past four weeks. He is so do he is so do it every
time he jumps around. He is like trying to time it in stride so he can absolutely take off and go
pick six. So I will I will do you one better. I will say it's a defensive touchdown provided by
one result. Wow, that's a good. Okay, that's spicy. I'll make sure that's in the notes. I'm just
going to say over. I think they're going to get one defensive touchdown. I don't know who it is.
Hopefully it's I'm hoping for a Greg Rousseau or AJ Epinezza, you know, tap interception return
for a touchdown or fumble recovery touchdown. Absolutely. No, that'd be great. What was that?
That was the Austin Johnson KC to Hill connection last week. Yeah. Let's let's get some more of
that cooking. All right, Johnson connection. Yes, I love it. Let's do it. Let's see it. All right,
man. Well, always good. Pardon with you. We will see what we see against the dolphins of my trepidation
is born from years of bills trauma or if like maybe I can make sense of football. I don't know. We'll
see it. Watch it be a blow and it turns out I can't make sense of football for all of you listening
at home like share and subscribe wherever you podcast YouTube in a couple of weeks. We are
regretting regretting this decision every time we talk about it. Apple hands Spotify and as always, go bills.