1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:12,300 Welcome back to the Buffalo Bread podcast. We are preparing for the week nine matchup 2 00:00:12,300 --> 00:00:20,400 between the Buffalo Bills and the Miami Dolphins. Hated fish. Damn. It's always interesting 3 00:00:20,400 --> 00:00:25,320 when we go play inside the division. And I think it's exceptionally interesting when 4 00:00:25,320 --> 00:00:30,300 the dolphins now have to a back. The bills now have on Miller back. The bills will likely 5 00:00:30,300 --> 00:00:38,120 have to roll Bernard back. And we are playing a one o'clock game at home. And it's pretty 6 00:00:38,120 --> 00:00:44,200 desperate for the Miami Dolphins. And we expected the Seahawks to give them a lot of problems, 7 00:00:44,200 --> 00:00:47,160 but it was a complete domination from top to bottom. Where do you want to start with 8 00:00:47,160 --> 00:00:54,760 this one, my friend? I want to start with the the wondrous humility driven journey that 9 00:00:54,760 --> 00:01:00,000 is this podcast, because you and I were so sure that the Seattle Seahawks were going 10 00:01:00,000 --> 00:01:07,360 to give the bills fits and starts in their game last week. I now enter the Miami game, 11 00:01:07,360 --> 00:01:12,940 not knowing what reality I should engage with. Because based on that Seattle game and based 12 00:01:12,940 --> 00:01:17,520 on the overall track record of the Buffalo Bills this season, JJ, this Miami game should 13 00:01:17,520 --> 00:01:23,720 be a cakewalk. But as we know, divisional games are weird. They tend to be very weird 14 00:01:23,720 --> 00:01:28,400 when they involve the Buffalo Bills. And listen, the Miami Dolphins are coming into this this 15 00:01:28,400 --> 00:01:33,840 matchup. And they are desperate. Their season quite literally is on the line. So listen, 16 00:01:33,840 --> 00:01:37,400 the bills are going to get the dolphins best effort, which I don't feel like they got out 17 00:01:37,400 --> 00:01:42,640 of Seattle. But JJ also think of the halfway mark to as we bridge the gap between the Seattle 18 00:01:42,640 --> 00:01:47,960 game and the Miami game. There are lots of positive trends that the bills have going 19 00:01:47,960 --> 00:01:51,480 for them. We saw some of it in the Seattle game. I think we're going to see a lot more 20 00:01:51,480 --> 00:01:53,760 of it in the Miami game. And I'm ready to get into it. 21 00:01:53,760 --> 00:01:58,120 Yeah, no, I think it's it's interesting to be a little bit more bullish on this matchup 22 00:01:58,120 --> 00:02:02,360 than we would have been if we came out of Seattle with a loss, you know, in the worst 23 00:02:02,360 --> 00:02:07,840 case, or in kind of the moderate case, a close victory or something where the bills had struggled 24 00:02:07,840 --> 00:02:13,200 on offense or looked flat and in a half like they had in a few weeks prior. It's a different 25 00:02:13,200 --> 00:02:18,520 world seeing how the bills came out. Specifically, I want to point out in that Seahawks game, 26 00:02:18,520 --> 00:02:25,080 a couple of individuals, one, James Cook running with a physicality and exceptional vision 27 00:02:25,080 --> 00:02:30,280 that he's always had, but it just seems to get sharper all the time. And then to Keon 28 00:02:30,280 --> 00:02:36,640 Coleman sort of coming into his own as the prototypical big body, bully receiver that 29 00:02:36,640 --> 00:02:38,600 the bills were drafting. 30 00:02:38,600 --> 00:02:47,640 Dude, I have to tell you, Coleman continues to impress. And his his development at this 31 00:02:47,640 --> 00:02:53,120 point, it feels like it's hit an exponential rate. And he is earning, I think a lot of 32 00:02:53,120 --> 00:02:57,840 those Mack Hollins reps that we were begging for him to get in the earlier quarter of the 33 00:02:57,840 --> 00:03:03,920 season. He's earning it by developing not just as a wide receiver, but doing the dirty work 34 00:03:03,920 --> 00:03:08,920 that he needs to do in the run game. And he thoroughly seems to enjoy it as well, blocking 35 00:03:08,920 --> 00:03:14,280 guys into the stand, not afraid to chop it up and really get into it one on one with 36 00:03:14,280 --> 00:03:19,800 a lot of the DBs that he's facing down. Coleman's it's not just a skill development, it is the 37 00:03:19,800 --> 00:03:24,520 attitude that he is bringing. He seems like a dude who is buying into the program at this 38 00:03:24,520 --> 00:03:31,600 point and is absolutely ascendant. And I think it coincides very nicely with Khalil Shakir 39 00:03:31,600 --> 00:03:36,880 getting healthy, the addition of Amari Cooper, and now sort of the hierarchy, the pecking 40 00:03:36,880 --> 00:03:43,600 order, if you will, of this past catching room beginning to coalesce. So Coleman, this 41 00:03:43,600 --> 00:03:48,480 feels, it feels real, like he's gone up against some really good DBs over the past couple 42 00:03:48,480 --> 00:03:55,840 of weeks, and he's absolutely stood out. And then James Cook, I mean, listen, I know running 43 00:03:55,840 --> 00:04:01,720 backs don't typically get second contracts in this league, but the evolution of cook, 44 00:04:01,720 --> 00:04:06,600 I mean, dynamic just doesn't begin to explain it. Like we talked at the beginning of the 45 00:04:06,600 --> 00:04:11,360 season about we did that exercise preseason, which running back room would you rather have, 46 00:04:11,360 --> 00:04:15,880 right? And we were like, yeah, Miami's because they're fast. James Cook, who has never been 47 00:04:15,880 --> 00:04:21,640 a slouch in the speed department, has added to his top end speed to go along with silky 48 00:04:21,640 --> 00:04:30,960 smooth acceleration. He is now patient running north and south, waiting for holes to open 49 00:04:30,960 --> 00:04:35,720 up. He's not just looking to bump it out to the outside all the time. And dude, he is running 50 00:04:35,720 --> 00:04:41,320 through tackles with power. He was no slouch last season, when it came to yards after contact, 51 00:04:41,320 --> 00:04:46,800 but that number has increased by about 60% the season. He's averaging over two yards 52 00:04:46,800 --> 00:04:53,240 a carry after initial contact. He's running fast. He's running hard. He looks like he's 53 00:04:53,240 --> 00:04:59,520 fixed his drop problem with past catches out of the backfield. And he has a go to weapon 54 00:04:59,520 --> 00:05:01,840 for Josh Allen in this offense. 55 00:05:01,840 --> 00:05:07,440 Absolutely. And I think too, the other thing that I observed with Cook's game is he has 56 00:05:07,440 --> 00:05:13,040 that ability that some of the better bills running backs, you know, of years past and 57 00:05:13,040 --> 00:05:17,640 certainly running backs across the league, the ability that I've always admired, which 58 00:05:17,640 --> 00:05:22,720 is a play is never dead for James Cook. And he will squirt forward. He'll appear out of 59 00:05:22,720 --> 00:05:27,680 a pile for four or five more yards. That was one of my favorite things about Fred Jackson 60 00:05:27,680 --> 00:05:31,920 when he was playing for the bills was the contact balance and the fact that the play was never 61 00:05:31,920 --> 00:05:36,800 over that he always turned what you'd expect to be a two or three yard loss into a positive 62 00:05:36,800 --> 00:05:41,520 gain. Always fighting for extra yardage. I've really appreciated that. So I agree. I think 63 00:05:41,520 --> 00:05:46,640 there's some benefits there, but those benefits could not be, you know, taking place for him 64 00:05:46,640 --> 00:05:51,400 or for Ray Davis or for Ty Johnson, for that matter, without a dominant offensive line. 65 00:05:51,400 --> 00:05:55,680 I'm really impressed with particularly in the Seahawks game, what that offensive line 66 00:05:55,680 --> 00:06:01,000 did. They kept Josh Allen incredibly clean throughout the day. And then they also were 67 00:06:01,000 --> 00:06:06,360 recreating the line of scrimmage two or three yards down the field repeatedly in normal 68 00:06:06,360 --> 00:06:11,880 sets and then also in jumbo sets. And doing so, you know, if I'm going to get X's and 69 00:06:11,880 --> 00:06:18,560 O's into it with the offensive line right now, way more with zone run than gap or power 70 00:06:18,560 --> 00:06:23,280 run schemes, which has not necessarily been their bread and butter for so many years. 71 00:06:23,280 --> 00:06:28,600 It was, you know, why are they doing zone runs? They just get gashed. They give up, you know, 72 00:06:28,600 --> 00:06:34,880 negative yards, gap power and kind of tackle wrap. That's their jam. Those things are still 73 00:06:34,880 --> 00:06:39,560 their jam, but now they're looking very, very good at zone. And I think it's because this 74 00:06:39,560 --> 00:06:48,560 offensive line, you know, with the addition at left guard of Edwards, you know, he was 75 00:06:48,560 --> 00:06:53,480 with the team last year. So the, the ability for them to build chemistry is, I think it's 76 00:06:53,480 --> 00:06:58,560 finally gotten there where these five guys have played together now long enough and thankfully 77 00:06:58,560 --> 00:07:02,480 been healthy enough throughout the season that their chemistry on zone running, which 78 00:07:02,480 --> 00:07:07,800 is really all about, you know, paying attention to which gap is your priority and blocking 79 00:07:07,800 --> 00:07:14,480 in a direction to keep, you know, lanes and seams clean behind you. You're sort of, you 80 00:07:14,480 --> 00:07:20,040 know, clearing up as you go. It's like snow plow. You're trying to sweep everything to 81 00:07:20,040 --> 00:07:27,240 the outside of you. And it really requires a lot of knowledge of how your players, besides 82 00:07:27,240 --> 00:07:32,400 you are going to be using their techniques and then also what your running back preferences 83 00:07:32,400 --> 00:07:35,680 are and then what your strengths are. And they all just have such good awareness of 84 00:07:35,680 --> 00:07:41,360 each other themselves when blocking in that way to keep the seams clean and, and keep 85 00:07:41,360 --> 00:07:46,440 everybody to the outside of the preferred running lanes. It was on, I think it was some 86 00:07:46,440 --> 00:07:54,320 of the comments on one bills live this week was talking about the, the offensive linemen 87 00:07:54,320 --> 00:08:01,220 in the huddle telling James Cook and Ray Davis where to look for the seam on a zone run play, 88 00:08:01,220 --> 00:08:04,480 because they already have the sense from their film study and their own awareness in the 89 00:08:04,480 --> 00:08:09,400 game of how they're going to be able to turn the opponents, you know, out. And that's just 90 00:08:09,400 --> 00:08:13,920 a huge advantage if you're giving somebody kind of a cheat code with their vision to 91 00:08:13,920 --> 00:08:19,520 get to a spot quicker. That matters so much in the run game. 92 00:08:19,520 --> 00:08:25,320 And the Seattle defensive line, JJ, they're good. Now granted, they've been hurt and that 93 00:08:25,320 --> 00:08:30,040 as a unit, they haven't gotten all the reps they've wanted to or felt that they needed 94 00:08:30,040 --> 00:08:35,200 this season together to start the year. But that's a talented defensive front that Seattle 95 00:08:35,200 --> 00:08:41,120 is rolling out there and a really talented defensive minded head coach as well. And 96 00:08:41,120 --> 00:08:46,960 when you see how multiple this run game is, add to the fact that we are now starting to 97 00:08:46,960 --> 00:08:53,840 see a proficiency in this team, throwing out of these jumbo sets that back even as early 98 00:08:53,840 --> 00:08:58,200 as two years ago, we'd kind of roll out there just to see if we could get any extra push 99 00:08:58,200 --> 00:09:04,080 or any extra juice in the run game. Now the fact that we are really putting teams in a 100 00:09:04,080 --> 00:09:08,080 bind when we roll out this jumbo package about whether or not we're actually going to run 101 00:09:08,080 --> 00:09:14,200 or pass and how effective we are at passing out of this set, it just it really has to 102 00:09:14,200 --> 00:09:19,120 be confounding to opposing team defenses. And this was the thing JJ that was so frustrating 103 00:09:19,120 --> 00:09:24,360 about the two losses that the bills had. Listen, the Ravens game kind of I feel like stands 104 00:09:24,360 --> 00:09:30,240 alone. That was a bad matchup, right? But when you look at what the Ravens are bad at, 105 00:09:30,240 --> 00:09:34,840 defending the deep past being susceptible to play action, there were a lot of things 106 00:09:34,840 --> 00:09:38,800 that the bills could have done offensively in that game that could have exploited those 107 00:09:38,800 --> 00:09:43,560 things. And I'm not saying bring the score even or two in the bills favor, but maybe 108 00:09:43,560 --> 00:09:48,400 maybe a little bit more competitive. And the Houston game, which is the one I feel like 109 00:09:48,400 --> 00:09:54,040 at this point in the season as we at the halfway mark is the one that really got away. Shotgun 110 00:09:54,040 --> 00:09:59,120 runs, abandoning play action, not lining up under center. And then that was the game the 111 00:09:59,120 --> 00:10:03,480 season ironically, JJ, we lined up the least amount of that jumbo set. And the the time 112 00:10:03,480 --> 00:10:11,320 we the deformation pattern we saw was slanted or skewed more heavily towards 11 personnel 113 00:10:11,320 --> 00:10:17,160 at a higher clip than we had seen this season. I just think the bills bread and butter is 114 00:10:17,160 --> 00:10:21,400 establishing things with the run game, being able to fool teams out of that jumbo set and 115 00:10:21,400 --> 00:10:26,280 then spread it out when they need to, but ultimately try to keep Josh under center and 116 00:10:26,280 --> 00:10:31,520 work that play action game as much as possible. When they stick to that formula, this offense 117 00:10:31,520 --> 00:10:36,480 really cranks and they really dictate game script to the opposing defense. 118 00:10:36,480 --> 00:10:44,560 Yeah, absolutely. And I do think also the addition of a Mario Cooper made such a huge 119 00:10:44,560 --> 00:10:48,480 such a huge difference to this team, even though I won catch for three yards is not 120 00:10:48,480 --> 00:10:52,800 really anything in the game against the Seahawks and he might be injured actually for the game 121 00:10:52,800 --> 00:10:56,400 against the Dolphins. But I do think that his addition at the top of the wide receiver 122 00:10:56,400 --> 00:11:00,520 depth chart really kind of pushed and we talked about this too in previous pods really kind 123 00:11:00,520 --> 00:11:05,240 of slotted everyone else in their into their preferred roles, take some pressure off of 124 00:11:05,240 --> 00:11:09,720 Keon Coleman, not just with coverage, but with expectations. He's not, you know, absolutely 125 00:11:09,720 --> 00:11:13,160 required to be the alpha dog, you know, wide receiver one straight out of the gate, he 126 00:11:13,160 --> 00:11:18,680 can give give his game some time to develop. And it's developing really nicely. I say a 127 00:11:18,680 --> 00:11:25,000 lot of nasty mean things about Keon Coleman in our texts because he disappoints me sometimes. 128 00:11:25,000 --> 00:11:30,120 But I feel like I should keep it up because it's it's shown out he hears it, you know, 129 00:11:30,120 --> 00:11:33,880 in the universe and and responds by making excellent plays. 130 00:11:33,880 --> 00:11:39,400 Yeah, that's how everyone responds to our pod like Brandon Bean has a direct line with 131 00:11:39,400 --> 00:11:43,760 us. Yeah. And we have such tremendous influence on the outcome of his decisions. 132 00:11:43,760 --> 00:11:47,320 The best part about our entertain this sports entertainment we provide is how delusional 133 00:11:47,320 --> 00:11:50,720 we are. I know. Now we're always wrong about stuff. 134 00:11:50,720 --> 00:11:55,400 We are wrong quite a lot. So yeah, I've been quite wrong about Keon Coleman because he 135 00:11:55,400 --> 00:11:58,680 is developing very nicely. But I think that a Mario Kooper's addition that says that 136 00:11:58,680 --> 00:12:04,600 a lot. So the quick distributive passing game that Josh Allen has leaned on in protecting 137 00:12:04,600 --> 00:12:10,840 the ball is, of course, his first interception coming in the game against the Seahawks. It's 138 00:12:10,840 --> 00:12:17,200 it's been great to watch him develop in that way. And honestly, if he ends up at the end 139 00:12:17,200 --> 00:12:24,600 of the season with like 34 35 passing touchdowns and like four interceptions and does not win 140 00:12:24,600 --> 00:12:31,000 MVP, it's going to be an absolute atrocity. Yeah, I know. I mean, listen, Lamar seven 141 00:12:31,000 --> 00:12:36,520 a really good year, though. Like, I mean, this I know, listen, I know. And this is this 142 00:12:36,520 --> 00:12:40,960 is hard for Bill's fans to talk about because Josh, you could make an argument. Josh was 143 00:12:40,960 --> 00:12:52,040 the MVP last year, 110%. Lamar seven a really good year. I I think regardless of awards 144 00:12:52,040 --> 00:12:59,920 outcome this season, this is Josh's most mature, most complete season we have seen to date 145 00:12:59,920 --> 00:13:07,440 at the halfway mark. It's not just the interceptions JJ. It's not just the the reduced continued 146 00:13:07,440 --> 00:13:13,680 reduction in turnover worthy plays. It's just the composure that he seems to be dictating 147 00:13:13,680 --> 00:13:18,280 the pace of this offense with even in losses, with the exception, I would say of the Houston 148 00:13:18,280 --> 00:13:23,520 game, the Houston game as I have rewatched it a couple of times, and really dug into 149 00:13:23,520 --> 00:13:28,520 that film. That was kind of like the digs is on the other side of the field and I got 150 00:13:28,520 --> 00:13:34,600 something to prove, right? That was as as a as much of a sugar high Josh game as I think 151 00:13:34,600 --> 00:13:39,080 we have seen in a really long time. And maybe I don't want to say the last one, I don't 152 00:13:39,080 --> 00:13:45,520 want to jinx it, but maybe maybe coming less of the norm that it has been in the past, 153 00:13:45,520 --> 00:13:49,720 based on where we see Josh's comfort level with his understanding of the offense, with 154 00:13:49,720 --> 00:13:55,360 the weapons that he has around him, and with the support that he is getting from Joe Brady, 155 00:13:55,360 --> 00:13:59,640 in the overall development and input that he has with this scheme. This feels to me 156 00:13:59,640 --> 00:14:06,080 like the most complete Josh Allen season that we have had in his career, not the most spectacular 157 00:14:06,080 --> 00:14:10,960 and spectacular tends to win in VPs. But this is the most complete version of Josh Allen, 158 00:14:10,960 --> 00:14:15,720 I think we've seen in our in our time under his 10 years, QB. 159 00:14:15,720 --> 00:14:20,240 I think so too. And I think it's also, you know, it's interesting because he's not running 160 00:14:20,240 --> 00:14:25,200 the ball. I mean, he's got a design run here or there. He's got an audible run to get 161 00:14:25,200 --> 00:14:30,560 a first down in a critical moment to close out a game. But he's not taking off with open 162 00:14:30,560 --> 00:14:35,760 space in front of him as he has in years past, because he is really focused on the everybody 163 00:14:35,760 --> 00:14:41,160 eats mentality and getting the ball to other guys in space. And it's shown to pay dividends 164 00:14:41,160 --> 00:14:46,520 because a great majority of his yards are yards after catch. It helps that you have people 165 00:14:46,520 --> 00:14:52,440 like Curtis Samuel or I'm sorry, Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman, who have been absolutely 166 00:14:52,440 --> 00:14:57,160 outstanding after the catch with the ball in their hands this year. And I'm sure they'll 167 00:14:57,160 --> 00:15:03,840 continue. But a lot of it too is Josh Allen's ball placement. I mean, he threw just a quick 168 00:15:03,840 --> 00:15:09,840 wide running back swing pass to James Cook in the game against the Seahawks that touched 169 00:15:09,840 --> 00:15:16,640 his fingertips exactly in stride over the over his inside shoulder. And like he did not have 170 00:15:16,640 --> 00:15:20,480 to stutter. He did not have to move his body. He just put his hands straight out on the 171 00:15:20,480 --> 00:15:27,120 ball just perfectly landed cupped in his palms to continue running. So some of that short 172 00:15:27,120 --> 00:15:33,000 area touch is noticeably better for Josh Allen this year. And it makes such a difference. 173 00:15:33,000 --> 00:15:39,800 It does. And you know, we've seen this market improvement over the last three weeks, coincidentally 174 00:15:39,800 --> 00:15:44,520 coinciding with the Bill's three game win streak, where Josh is attacking the intermediate 175 00:15:44,520 --> 00:15:49,800 parts of the field with way more efficiency. And the deep ball is finally starting to arrive 176 00:15:49,800 --> 00:15:54,520 at as well. It was a struggle through the first four or five weeks of the season, JJ. 177 00:15:54,520 --> 00:16:01,480 But over the last three, we've seen we've seen Josh's proficiency very, very sustainably 178 00:16:01,480 --> 00:16:06,280 and consistently hitting the intermediate parts of the field this season. But now he's 179 00:16:06,280 --> 00:16:10,320 starting to add some of that deep ball element. And it is interesting because they're not 180 00:16:10,320 --> 00:16:13,800 just involving the guys who you would think they would involve in the deep game like a 181 00:16:13,800 --> 00:16:18,800 Coleman. I believe they will eventually get Cooper involved. But they really want to use 182 00:16:18,800 --> 00:16:23,960 Kincaid as a guy who can attack the seam 20 yards up. I went back because I said in the 183 00:16:23,960 --> 00:16:28,120 Seattle game, this should be the Kincaid game because they're so bad at defending opposing 184 00:16:28,120 --> 00:16:34,960 tight ends. And Kincaid had a great game, but it wasn't the blowout breakout game that 185 00:16:34,960 --> 00:16:41,280 I had expected. So I went back and I watched all 44 of his targets this season, the incompletions 186 00:16:41,280 --> 00:16:46,760 and the completions. And there is something noticeable, like a switch that flipped after 187 00:16:46,760 --> 00:16:52,560 that Ravens game in the way that they're using him in the scheme. They were using him really 188 00:16:52,560 --> 00:16:56,840 in a lot of that Khalil Shakir role where he was getting a lot of stuff behind the line 189 00:16:56,840 --> 00:17:01,720 of scrimmage. These like pseudo screens, these really quick hits, like he, oh, you could 190 00:17:01,720 --> 00:17:06,800 see the proficiency that he brought to the table settling in zone. But in man, he was 191 00:17:06,800 --> 00:17:10,840 absolutely getting swallowed up. And you could see Brady thinking, well, maybe getting him 192 00:17:10,840 --> 00:17:16,200 involved in the quick game, we'll get him cooking and get him going. Since that Ravens 193 00:17:16,200 --> 00:17:21,400 game, absolute, absolute debacle from a play calling perspective, not to use Kincaid down 194 00:17:21,400 --> 00:17:28,240 the field in that game. They have started to increase Kincaid's usage beyond the sticks. 195 00:17:28,240 --> 00:17:35,240 And he has doubled so far JJ, the percentage of his routes run in targets that are hitting 196 00:17:35,240 --> 00:17:43,360 him in that intermediate area, 10 to 19 yards, and that 20 plus area yardage as well. I think 197 00:17:43,360 --> 00:17:48,640 what I'm seeing on film is that the plan they're formulating for Kincaid is that they want 198 00:17:48,640 --> 00:17:53,440 him to factor in not just into the short zone breaking game, but they want him get him some 199 00:17:53,440 --> 00:17:57,880 mismatches against safeties and linebackers and man coverage. And they want to use his 200 00:17:57,880 --> 00:18:03,600 athleticism and speed to exploit downfield as well. And I'm excited to see a play out 201 00:18:03,600 --> 00:18:08,240 because I think Brady has been gradually building Kincaid to that point. And as we transition 202 00:18:08,240 --> 00:18:12,240 to the Miami game here in a little bit, I think that this could be the Dalton Kincaid 203 00:18:12,240 --> 00:18:16,400 game where that happens, where he's a real legitimate threat down. 204 00:18:16,400 --> 00:18:22,320 And I think you're right. I think that, you know, as kind of a preview of my thoughts 205 00:18:22,320 --> 00:18:26,600 about that, the dolphins are pretty, they're pretty soft in the middle of their defense 206 00:18:26,600 --> 00:18:31,480 going all the way up the seam at all three levels, defensive tackle, linebacker and then 207 00:18:31,480 --> 00:18:37,800 safety. And that the safety I'm picking on right now is is our Jordan where we both love 208 00:18:37,800 --> 00:18:42,680 as a player. I just think that he is late in his career and it shows it showed in the 209 00:18:42,680 --> 00:18:46,480 game against the bills earlier in the season when he couldn't get the red angle, you know, 210 00:18:46,480 --> 00:18:51,400 on the long James Cook run, it shows in every game I've watched at the dolphins this year 211 00:18:51,400 --> 00:18:58,520 where he he's literally coming into the frame at the end of plays, seemingly having run 212 00:18:58,520 --> 00:19:02,540 out of the locker room all the way to the field on the play. And it's because they're 213 00:19:02,540 --> 00:19:09,920 playing him so deep and using him has basically a insurance, you know, he's like an insurance 214 00:19:09,920 --> 00:19:15,840 policy against an over the top touchdown, because I don't I think they recognize the 215 00:19:15,840 --> 00:19:20,320 dolphins, you know, defensive coordinators recognize that he's not going to be fast 216 00:19:20,320 --> 00:19:25,520 enough or physical enough in down in them in the mess to make impact plays. So they're 217 00:19:25,520 --> 00:19:30,200 playing him back as a deep middle, you know, safety valve. And it's not it's not great 218 00:19:30,200 --> 00:19:34,720 for him because also he's he's taking bad angles are not able to get good angles. 219 00:19:34,720 --> 00:19:41,880 Yeah, no, no. And like you are you are very nicely popping the cap here under Miami pre 220 00:19:41,880 --> 00:19:46,240 game, which I want to get to. But before we get to that JJ, anything else you want to 221 00:19:46,240 --> 00:19:50,600 say in summary of the Seahawks game, I mean, it was as complete a game as we have seen 222 00:19:50,600 --> 00:19:52,760 the bills play this season on both sides of the ball. 223 00:19:52,760 --> 00:19:57,960 I mean, I'll say I'll say that I was so terrified of Boyle Maffee and Derek Hall, because they 224 00:19:57,960 --> 00:20:04,440 have such good pressure without sack or without blitzes. And it showed almost nothing. And 225 00:20:04,440 --> 00:20:09,560 I think that you know, the bills, the dolphins also have a pretty high pressure rate without 226 00:20:09,560 --> 00:20:16,320 a high sack numbers. And so there I still have those worries. But it's good getting 227 00:20:16,320 --> 00:20:20,960 to the point where because of the Seahawks game and how dominant the offensive line was, 228 00:20:20,960 --> 00:20:26,000 and how good the offensive line has been in past pro almost every week this season. I'm 229 00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:29,320 going to give them the benefit of the doubt before I start projecting that they're going 230 00:20:29,320 --> 00:20:35,400 to struggle against anybody. Because the pass rush for the dolphins is not exceptional. 231 00:20:35,400 --> 00:20:40,520 They have a good pressure rate, but it's I think it's a lot more about who they've played. 232 00:20:40,520 --> 00:20:45,400 Because some of the offensive lines they've played are very suspect. And so I like Josh 233 00:20:45,400 --> 00:20:50,240 Allen to stay super clean in the dolphins game, just as he did in the Seahawks game 234 00:20:50,240 --> 00:20:54,720 against what I think is a better pressure package and a better set of players. 235 00:20:54,720 --> 00:21:01,960 Yeah, I agree. All right, man, let's move on to this Miami pregame, because I am very 236 00:21:01,960 --> 00:21:06,720 excited to dig into it. So let's talk about a couple of things really quick here by the 237 00:21:06,720 --> 00:21:12,960 numbers. So we have already seen the Miami Dolphins once. That game probably most notable 238 00:21:12,960 --> 00:21:17,440 because it is the game where Tua went out with his third diagnosed concussion as an 239 00:21:17,440 --> 00:21:24,200 NFL pro, miss subsequently miss the next four games has returned last week again in a loss 240 00:21:24,200 --> 00:21:29,840 of losing effort against the Arizona Cardinals. And now they are on the road, JJ. They are 241 00:21:29,840 --> 00:21:36,640 six point underdogs to these Buffalo Bills and Highmark for a 1pm start this Sunday. 242 00:21:36,640 --> 00:21:42,520 So all trend lines JJ point to the bills having a massive advantage in this game. And it's 243 00:21:42,520 --> 00:21:46,840 not just the historical advantage that they have had against the dolphins in Josh Allen 244 00:21:46,840 --> 00:21:53,120 and Sean McDermott's tenure, but also for once, it looks like they might be the healthiest 245 00:21:53,120 --> 00:21:56,960 team, at least on paper heading into this game. The bills are going to get Von Miller 246 00:21:56,960 --> 00:22:01,840 back from suspension. All signs based on Sean McDermott's press conference today point 247 00:22:01,840 --> 00:22:07,120 to Terrell Bernard being a go Christian Bedford still has a questionable status heading into 248 00:22:07,120 --> 00:22:13,280 this game. So we could get a get our Kyler Elam game, which honestly, if there was a 249 00:22:13,280 --> 00:22:17,520 game we were to get Elam, I would want it to be against the dolphins because best games 250 00:22:17,520 --> 00:22:23,440 is a brove been against the squat. But outside of Benford, it looks like the bills are going 251 00:22:23,440 --> 00:22:28,080 to be the healthier team. The dolphins are going to be without two real key components 252 00:22:28,080 --> 00:22:33,680 on that defense. Zach Sealer, the defensive lineman and Javon Holland, all pro safety. 253 00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:38,960 So all pro pro Jordan Boyer is going to have a new running mate in the high end of that 254 00:22:38,960 --> 00:22:44,160 secondary here. So JJ, where do you want to start? You want to start with trend lines, 255 00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:48,560 versus defense bills versus dolphins, flip it the other way around. What do you want to do? 256 00:22:50,800 --> 00:22:58,400 Let's start with with the bills, defense versus often dolphins on offense. Because I think it is 257 00:22:58,400 --> 00:23:03,440 such an interesting storyline with two are coming back with two having gone out most recently 258 00:23:03,440 --> 00:23:09,600 against the bills under his own power by running headlong into DeMar Hamlin and giving himself 259 00:23:09,600 --> 00:23:19,120 a concussion. I think it's interesting because the Buffalo Bill's pass rush is probably the best 260 00:23:19,120 --> 00:23:24,720 one that the dolphins have seen this season and the best one they will see in terms of getting 261 00:23:24,720 --> 00:23:31,680 pressure on Tua and forcing him to be uncomfortable. And also the bill's coverage unit is probably the 262 00:23:31,680 --> 00:23:38,800 best at making sure that he doesn't get his first read. And so against the bills, the dolphins 263 00:23:38,800 --> 00:23:45,680 threw three interceptions at three turnovers in the previous game and allowed two sacks. So 264 00:23:45,680 --> 00:23:51,760 I think there's a chance that they see similar outcomes. I do love that Trell Bernard's coming 265 00:23:51,760 --> 00:23:55,280 back. I hope he can stay healthy for a game because it seems like it's always something 266 00:23:55,280 --> 00:24:00,640 this season for him. And I'm very worried about Christian Benford because I agree with you that 267 00:24:00,640 --> 00:24:06,080 Kyrie Lim probably would, if there's a game for Kyrie Lim to have to relieve one of the starters, 268 00:24:06,080 --> 00:24:12,320 this is a good one. But I also think that he's going to be susceptible to a double move. He's 269 00:24:12,320 --> 00:24:20,560 going to be susceptible to some of the amazing ball handling that Tua does on playfakes and 270 00:24:21,520 --> 00:24:27,040 quick pumps and things like that to the outside. And so I could see Kyrie Lim getting absolutely 271 00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:33,360 cooked by Tyreek Hill or Jalen Waddle in this game if he is forced to play in relief of Benford. 272 00:24:33,360 --> 00:24:38,080 But I mean, I love the fact that Javon Solomon has popped when he's had a few snaps here and there. 273 00:24:38,080 --> 00:24:41,680 Greg Russo and AJ Epineza have gone back and forth with having dominant games, 274 00:24:42,400 --> 00:24:48,160 haven't put one together to get both at the same time. But I think it's coming. And then 275 00:24:48,160 --> 00:24:53,360 Ed Oliver looks like he's rounding back into perfect season form after having worked through 276 00:24:53,360 --> 00:25:00,880 some injuries and slow starts. Yeah, absolutely, dude. I'm going to, we all know that the magic 277 00:25:00,880 --> 00:25:07,360 number for Tua is 2.5 seconds. Can you make him hold on to the ball for longer than 2.5 seconds, 278 00:25:07,360 --> 00:25:13,040 make him question his first read and thereby get pressure on him? In the bill's first game, 279 00:25:13,040 --> 00:25:21,360 JJ, they brought a blitz on exactly 0% of his drop backs, like Sean McDermott has toyed in the 280 00:25:21,360 --> 00:25:26,320 past with Blitzing Tua and not Blitzing Tua. And he's ultimately made the decision that we will 281 00:25:26,320 --> 00:25:32,320 get pressure with four against what is an absolutely putrid offensive line. This offensive line last 282 00:25:32,320 --> 00:25:39,120 season, JJ, was 30th in the league in past rush win rate. This season, it is 27th, has not made a 283 00:25:39,120 --> 00:25:46,000 market improvement. Amazing when you consider the fragility in the health situation of their starting 284 00:25:46,000 --> 00:25:51,680 QB, but that's neither here nor there. So McDermott in the first game on the road made the 285 00:25:51,680 --> 00:25:57,040 decision, we're going to let Tua drop back, we're going to let our four best guys on any given drop 286 00:25:57,040 --> 00:26:01,200 back get to him. And we're going to force him to get the ball out quickly. We're going to force him 287 00:26:01,200 --> 00:26:05,760 to be inaccurate by closing off his windows and just dropping a bunch of guys into coverage. And 288 00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:11,280 it was remarkably successful. Tua, while he completed 68% of his passes, his completion 289 00:26:11,280 --> 00:26:20,000 percentage over expected was minus 5.4% in that game. And he was throwing into tight windows more 290 00:26:20,000 --> 00:26:26,880 than he had in other situations this season. I JJ, I'm expecting the bills, if it ain't broke, 291 00:26:26,880 --> 00:26:31,440 don't fix it. I'm expecting something very similar where they're going to get want to get pressure 292 00:26:31,440 --> 00:26:36,960 with four. They're not going to bring a lot of unique blitzes is we have seen Babbage dial up 293 00:26:36,960 --> 00:26:42,240 blitzes in timely situations more than we've seen the bills do in the past. I just don't think it's 294 00:26:42,240 --> 00:26:47,200 going to be the case in this game. I think they feel comfortable with how they play to a they feel 295 00:26:47,200 --> 00:26:53,280 play to a they feel very comfortable with how they play Tyree kill as well. Since 13 seconds, 296 00:26:53,280 --> 00:26:59,120 Tyree kill has not had 100 yard receiving game against the Buffalo bills. And I think McDermott 297 00:26:59,120 --> 00:27:05,840 and squad are going to game plan to have that trend continue. What does worry me against this defense 298 00:27:05,840 --> 00:27:14,720 JJ is our susceptibility to play action. But again, this isn't something is isn't something that the 299 00:27:14,720 --> 00:27:19,920 Dolphins do on a regular basis. In the first game that we played against them, only about 10% of 300 00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:24,960 two us dropbacks came and play action they want to unshaken, they want him to get rid of the ball 301 00:27:24,960 --> 00:27:30,640 quickly. They don't want his back to the defense at any given moment. So the thing that the bills 302 00:27:30,640 --> 00:27:37,120 are the least least likely to defend in the passing game or least least able to the Dolphins don't 303 00:27:37,120 --> 00:27:42,800 have the scheme or personnel to really exploit. So this is a weakness that I'm not really worried 304 00:27:42,800 --> 00:27:48,080 about unless McDaniel is really going to dial up something that we have not seen him put on film yet. 305 00:27:48,080 --> 00:27:53,440 So that leads us to the run game and what this Miami run game is going to do against the bills. 306 00:27:53,440 --> 00:28:00,160 Now, we they didn't ever he most hurt in the first game. It was a lot of Devon HN and a little bit 307 00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:07,600 of Jalen right now they've got all three of their Cerberus like rushing rushing attack intact. And 308 00:28:07,600 --> 00:28:14,560 with to a back Devon HN is now a factor in the passing game again as well. JJ if there is a way 309 00:28:14,560 --> 00:28:20,720 for the Miami Dolphins to keep the Buffalo Bills off balance and sustain drives and keep what has 310 00:28:20,720 --> 00:28:26,880 been a very, very shoddy third down defense in Buffalo, keep that squad from from getting three 311 00:28:26,880 --> 00:28:32,160 in outs, I think it's going to have to focus not just on the run game, but the overall use of Devon 312 00:28:32,160 --> 00:28:37,360 HN out of the backfield as well. So JJ given that what are some of the things you think the 313 00:28:37,360 --> 00:28:43,120 bills can focus on to not just shut down this this Miami run game, but also limit HN out of 314 00:28:43,120 --> 00:28:49,600 the backfield as a pass catcher. Well, I think that in terms of the in terms of stopping the run, 315 00:28:49,600 --> 00:28:56,480 the bills just need to be disciplined in their rush lanes and not to bite on eye candy because 316 00:28:56,480 --> 00:29:02,240 McDaniel scheme is going to send a lot of different, you know, orbit motions and different, you know, 317 00:29:02,240 --> 00:29:07,040 crossing motions that are going to try to get you to think play the play is actually going in one 318 00:29:07,040 --> 00:29:13,280 direction. And then he's going to use counters and cutbacks and cut and zone cutback runs to give 319 00:29:13,280 --> 00:29:20,320 Devon HN small gaps in the defense in order to slice, you know, slice upfield and make, you 320 00:29:20,320 --> 00:29:25,440 know, nothing into something. I think that the bills showed against Kenneth Walker that they're 321 00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:32,000 not very susceptible to that, even without Tyrell Bernard on the field. They were able to stay 322 00:29:32,000 --> 00:29:38,400 disciplined. And I saw multiple times, they would crash all four of their down linemen in one 323 00:29:38,400 --> 00:29:45,200 direction really hard, and then have both linebackers fill to the outside. So they basically have a 324 00:29:45,200 --> 00:29:51,280 six person equally spaced, you know, pins are going up the field, you know, into the offensive 325 00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:59,440 backfield. And it's a it's a tough scheme to be great at because essentially, if you're if you're 326 00:29:59,440 --> 00:30:04,880 running back, who is good enough and a linebacker who's poor enough, that the running back can make 327 00:30:04,880 --> 00:30:09,200 the linebacker miss, he's going to get a minimum of 10 to 15 yards, because he's going to get there 328 00:30:09,200 --> 00:30:15,040 before a corner who's like hard on the outside to keep contain, or a safety is going to be able to 329 00:30:15,040 --> 00:30:19,360 trigger downhill and get there. Or if the safety takes a bad angle, like we've seen tomorrow, Hamlin 330 00:30:19,360 --> 00:30:26,080 do, it could be 2030 year touchdown. So I saw, but I what I saw in that scheme against Kenneth 331 00:30:26,080 --> 00:30:32,480 Walker was that they were exceptional at doing their responsibilities, having a full six person 332 00:30:32,480 --> 00:30:39,920 press in all of the applicable applicable gaps on the offensive line side, and then disengaging 333 00:30:39,920 --> 00:30:45,280 from blocks and bringing him down. And that was without again, without Terrell Bernard, 334 00:30:45,280 --> 00:30:50,480 with Taryn Johnson still kind of working his way back from injury. I just, you know, I believe in 335 00:30:50,480 --> 00:30:58,320 that front so much if they're all healthy, and keeping a chain contained. I actually worry 336 00:30:58,320 --> 00:31:03,680 way more about him in screens, and like in quick swing passes to the outside, because I think 337 00:31:03,680 --> 00:31:06,960 that's where the bills are a little bit more vulnerable than straight up the gut in the run 338 00:31:06,960 --> 00:31:14,000 or off the off tackle in the run. You know, it's amazing. It's amazing what a difference 339 00:31:14,000 --> 00:31:18,800 three weeks makes, because the Buffalo Bills, especially after that Baltimore game, 340 00:31:18,800 --> 00:31:24,800 were one of the worst teams in the league by a lot of metrics and rush defense. Now here we are, 341 00:31:25,440 --> 00:31:31,120 four weeks removed from that game in three weeks, three straight weeks of wins, and some strong 342 00:31:31,120 --> 00:31:36,720 performances for this Buffalo Bills rushing defense. They're now sixth in the league JJ 343 00:31:36,720 --> 00:31:43,520 overall and rush defense efficiency and seventh and DVOA. This, they're still not great and 344 00:31:43,520 --> 00:31:49,200 light box efficiency, which is all they play. They're 24th in light box efficiency. But I mean, 345 00:31:49,200 --> 00:31:54,480 dude, does this, does this rush defense for Buffalo strike you as a top 10 unit? 346 00:31:55,920 --> 00:32:01,200 No, it doesn't pass the eyeball test for it. But it's funny because what you see is, 347 00:32:02,960 --> 00:32:08,880 they are excellent in the success rate metric. And that I think is where you see the difference, 348 00:32:08,880 --> 00:32:15,120 because they look like they're getting gashed in the run. But the reality is, oftentimes, 349 00:32:16,640 --> 00:32:21,200 teams are either starting behind the six because of penalties or because of lost yardage on a, 350 00:32:21,200 --> 00:32:26,080 you know, on a previous snap, whether that's a sack tackle for loss or whatever it might be. 351 00:32:27,120 --> 00:32:31,760 And so the Bills are like, yeah, it's third and 15, you can get seven yards on a rush, 352 00:32:31,760 --> 00:32:36,160 which on the box score, doing that repeatedly throughout a game looks awesome for a running 353 00:32:36,160 --> 00:32:41,840 back who then gets 80, 90, 100 yards. But in the reality, that's an unsuccessful play because you 354 00:32:41,840 --> 00:32:48,160 did not get the yard to gain needed to maintain the ball and possession for your team. And so the 355 00:32:48,160 --> 00:32:56,400 Bills sort of factor the situational football into the way that they play defense and are willing to 356 00:32:56,400 --> 00:33:01,680 rally to the football and tackle to make sure that they don't give up any easy yards over the top. 357 00:33:01,680 --> 00:33:07,600 Or, you know, any like medium yards that are going to get the first down. So I think that that's, 358 00:33:08,640 --> 00:33:13,520 I get it, I get that the metrics are a top 10 defense, and it doesn't look like it because 359 00:33:13,520 --> 00:33:19,680 of the way they kind of cleverly allow rushing yards as a as part of their defensive scheme 360 00:33:20,320 --> 00:33:26,800 to discourage teams from passing purely, because they I think you can tell by watching the team 361 00:33:26,800 --> 00:33:32,240 that there are certainly separation opportunities for elite receivers, of which the dolphins have 362 00:33:32,240 --> 00:33:37,840 to, there are certainly opportunities for elite receivers to separate from the Bills coverage, 363 00:33:37,840 --> 00:33:44,080 as good as Benford and as good as Douglas have been playing with a little bit of time. And so 364 00:33:44,080 --> 00:33:50,240 just play a light box and declare that any NFL team worth its salt that has any sort of scheme 365 00:33:50,240 --> 00:33:55,360 is going to probably audible into a run if you have nobody in the box and then clamp it all down 366 00:33:55,360 --> 00:34:01,600 the moment the snap comes. Yeah, absolutely. Great explanation to, by the way, great like 367 00:34:02,160 --> 00:34:08,080 in thought definition of advanced success metrics. Very, very good idea. All right, man, 368 00:34:08,080 --> 00:34:14,640 let's flip it. Let's talk about the Bills offense against this surprisingly spry Miami defense. 369 00:34:15,440 --> 00:34:20,960 And I want to start in one particular place. And that's with Jalen Ramsey. And I mean this with 370 00:34:20,960 --> 00:34:28,880 no due respect. Jalen Ramsey sucks. He has had an awful season this year. And I can't think of a guy 371 00:34:28,880 --> 00:34:35,440 who deserves it more than him. So Jalen Ramsey this season, I just want to I want to bathe myself 372 00:34:35,440 --> 00:34:42,400 in the glory of these statistics. He is allowed on 21 targets this season per NFL next gen stats, 373 00:34:42,960 --> 00:34:50,640 13 receptions, two touchdowns and 135 yards when targeted as nearest defender. And he is 374 00:34:50,640 --> 00:34:59,280 playing at a career he is giving opposing QB is a career low 4.8 tight went to a 4.8% tight window 375 00:34:59,280 --> 00:35:06,000 percentage, meaning that opposing wide receivers are having a field day getting separation on Jalen 376 00:35:06,000 --> 00:35:15,120 Ramsey opposing QBs are passing at a passer rate of a 112.2 when they target Ramsey as the nearest 377 00:35:15,120 --> 00:35:23,840 defender JJ. Josh Allen has made it a habit of targeting Jalen Ramsey, no matter what Buffalo 378 00:35:23,840 --> 00:35:28,640 bill wide receivers meshed up against him. And previous games that have played against the Rams 379 00:35:28,640 --> 00:35:36,560 and now the dolphins. Do you think actually, I know the answer to this, when Keon Coleman is lined up 380 00:35:36,560 --> 00:35:44,640 with Jalen Ramsey, do you think it's going to be the most epic mossing of all time? So I'll say this, 381 00:35:44,640 --> 00:35:49,600 if there's a game for Jalen Ramsey to get an actually get an INT against Josh Allen, it's 382 00:35:49,600 --> 00:35:54,800 this one. Because I think specifically the situation you presented with Keon Coleman 383 00:35:54,800 --> 00:35:59,520 against Jalen Ramsey, Josh Allen is not even going to look at the other reads on the field, 384 00:35:59,520 --> 00:36:05,600 because he's going to want to have Keon Coleman, big boy Jalen Ramsey into the dirt, 385 00:36:06,320 --> 00:36:12,800 and then teabag him on the goal line, like that just he's going to just want that so badly because 386 00:36:12,800 --> 00:36:18,160 he's petty. And we love him for it. And Jalen Ramsey is a complete diva, you know, princess, 387 00:36:18,160 --> 00:36:24,640 jerk, top to bottom. Jalen Ramsey is having a bad season. I'll tell you why. Because Jalen Ramsey is 388 00:36:24,640 --> 00:36:31,440 a selfish narcissist, who is tired of putting in the hard work that's required to be a top tier 389 00:36:31,440 --> 00:36:38,000 quarterback on a team that is losing. Like that, that is why I think he's playing poorly, 390 00:36:38,000 --> 00:36:44,960 is because he's he's a front runner. He loves being, you know, in charge of everything. But he 391 00:36:44,960 --> 00:36:51,680 when the chips are down, he'll be the first one to bail on you. Damn, cook, my friend cook. Yeah, 392 00:36:51,680 --> 00:36:55,680 I love it. Freakin love. Oh, and I'm just gonna I can tell you already, whether it's 393 00:36:56,320 --> 00:37:01,920 Khalil Shakir or Keon Coleman, hell, even if it's Mack Hollins, I think that Josh Allen's 394 00:37:01,920 --> 00:37:06,480 going to try to feed the ball into Jalen Ramsey's coverage. And it's a smart thing to do if you 395 00:37:06,480 --> 00:37:10,240 look at the metrics. And if you're watching the film, Jalen Ramsey is giving huge cushions. He 396 00:37:10,240 --> 00:37:15,120 doesn't look nearly as fast as he is for somebody with four three speed. Well, I think that speed 397 00:37:15,120 --> 00:37:20,960 is largely gone. I mean, listen, that when he was traded to Miami, there were rumblings about, 398 00:37:21,600 --> 00:37:28,320 did the dolphins just trade for a safety or did they trade for CB one? And I think he has probably 399 00:37:28,320 --> 00:37:34,480 reached the phase of his career where athletically, he's probably better aligned at the safety position 400 00:37:34,480 --> 00:37:38,480 that he is to be left out on an island against opposing wide receivers at this point. 401 00:37:40,240 --> 00:37:45,920 Listen, that is as much fun and as much glee as we would take from the pettiness of Josh 402 00:37:45,920 --> 00:37:51,840 targeting Jalen Ramsey over and over again. I think the Buffalo Bills, as we had said in our 403 00:37:51,840 --> 00:37:58,400 recap of the Seattle game, I think they need to establish the run. And this has been a surprisingly 404 00:37:58,400 --> 00:38:05,120 good Miami Dolphins defense, not overwhelming. But given the pieces that they have, they have on 405 00:38:05,120 --> 00:38:09,920 this defense and given that they have a first year defensive coordinator and Anthony Weaver, 406 00:38:10,640 --> 00:38:16,560 they've done a good job. And overall efficiency metrics, they're no worse than 12. And against 407 00:38:16,560 --> 00:38:21,280 the rush, they've been surprisingly effective. Now, not having Sealer in this game and not 408 00:38:21,280 --> 00:38:25,760 having Holland in this game are really going to make a difference because those are two guys who 409 00:38:25,760 --> 00:38:31,040 they rely on to crash at the point of attack in the rush game, particularly Holland, who Weaver 410 00:38:31,040 --> 00:38:35,600 has just done such a great job moving him all over the field, putting him in the box, putting him 411 00:38:35,600 --> 00:38:42,240 up high like, Javan Holland's just he's awesome. He's an awesome, awesome pro. And it's a shame 412 00:38:42,240 --> 00:38:46,800 that he's not going to be able to play in this game. Because when I'm not rooting against the 413 00:38:46,800 --> 00:38:51,280 Dolphins to lose, I really enjoy watching Javan Holland tape. He's just an excellent player. 414 00:38:51,280 --> 00:38:55,920 But not having those two guys in the game should open things up, not just for the bills in the 415 00:38:55,920 --> 00:39:00,720 in the rush game, JJ, but for the under center play action game as well, which we know is the 416 00:39:00,720 --> 00:39:06,880 bread and butter of this unit. And this offensive scheme. So I want to see things start with James 417 00:39:06,880 --> 00:39:12,960 Cook, and I want to see them evolve from there. However, if the Buffalo Bills line up an 11 418 00:39:12,960 --> 00:39:19,360 personnel on 12 of their first 15 offensive possessions, and they're just running verts 419 00:39:19,360 --> 00:39:24,800 down the field, I also wouldn't be sad about that either, because this is a Miami Dolphins defense 420 00:39:24,800 --> 00:39:30,640 that you can expose the middle of the field deep on them. And because of, as we had mentioned, 421 00:39:30,640 --> 00:39:34,960 the aforementioned or beloved Jordan poiers athletic decline, you can take the roof off 422 00:39:34,960 --> 00:39:42,000 this defense pretty easily as well. Yeah, and I mean, they also, you know, with the 423 00:39:42,000 --> 00:39:49,360 with the their cornerback room is is a little bit banged up to Caterco who is going to be out for 424 00:39:49,360 --> 00:39:56,400 this game, who I think is a decent coverage nickel back, but is also the kind of player that like 425 00:39:56,400 --> 00:40:01,760 they actually it might be more difficult to run on this team if they put Siran Neil in the nickel, 426 00:40:02,880 --> 00:40:07,440 because the bills use that method to stop like the Patriots and stuff, you know, other teams 427 00:40:07,440 --> 00:40:12,240 from doing power running attack against them by doing that exactly that. But that just means 428 00:40:12,240 --> 00:40:18,480 you're going to like it's desperate, it's going to be desperately obvious that Siran Neil can't 429 00:40:18,480 --> 00:40:24,720 keep up with Clial Shakir, or anybody in coverage because it's never been his strength. He's 430 00:40:24,720 --> 00:40:30,640 basically a special team player who can also play kind of heavy nickel linebacker. And so 431 00:40:30,640 --> 00:40:37,040 I think that, you know, with Caterco out and with Javon Holland out, likely out with Jalen 432 00:40:37,040 --> 00:40:42,560 Ramsey's decline, it's they're left with just Kendall Fuller. And then like Marcus May, Elijah 433 00:40:42,560 --> 00:40:49,520 Campbell, Camp Smith, like, they don't even have Storm Duck, who is not a good player, but has maybe 434 00:40:49,520 --> 00:40:55,120 the coolest name of any cornerback in the league. It's a really great name. I'm glad you were able 435 00:40:55,120 --> 00:41:01,280 to drop that reference on this. I need it to he's questionable. Storm Duck is questionable. But 436 00:41:01,280 --> 00:41:08,000 I just want the call to be Keon Coleman over Storm Duck in the red zone for the D.D. 437 00:41:08,800 --> 00:41:16,960 Keon Coleman truck Storm Duck. But so there, but all I'm saying is they have incredible 438 00:41:16,960 --> 00:41:22,560 vulnerabilities, especially I mean, Javon Holland doubtful. Most most people inside like Marquis 439 00:41:22,560 --> 00:41:27,760 Louis Jacques says he doesn't think there's any way Javon Holland plays in this game based on the 440 00:41:27,760 --> 00:41:34,640 injury. And he's close to the team. And so are Marcel Louis Jacques, my apologies. And so I just 441 00:41:34,640 --> 00:41:39,920 think that there's too many obvious opportunities in the past game to not take advantage. And so it 442 00:41:39,920 --> 00:41:45,360 might be the exact flip of the original Bill's Dolphins game where they, you know, had short 443 00:41:45,360 --> 00:41:50,080 fields and leaned on the run, Josh Allen didn't need to do much. This might be the, you know, 444 00:41:50,080 --> 00:41:56,800 Josh Allen playing air guitar in the 50 yard line of Hard Rock Stadium type, type performance, 445 00:41:57,600 --> 00:42:02,720 just based on the coverage vulnerabilities that have. Yeah, just one final note on their 446 00:42:02,720 --> 00:42:09,280 and their defensive backfield. I'm with you. Javon Holland is my second favorite safety in 447 00:42:09,280 --> 00:42:15,120 the league to watch play on film. Because Kyle Hamilton your first. No, he's a good one. He's 448 00:42:15,120 --> 00:42:22,240 probably three. Buddha Baker is my number one. Oh, solid. I like that. I like that a lot. You 449 00:42:22,240 --> 00:42:26,560 know who I want my favorite safety to be? I want it to be Cole Bishop. And that's a good segue 450 00:42:26,560 --> 00:42:32,080 for you to talk about Cole Bishop. Yeah. So, so let me go on my weekly Cole Bishop right now. I'm 451 00:42:32,080 --> 00:42:37,280 just kidding. I won't. I won't. But um, yeah, man, I mean, listen, and this is a good time to flip it 452 00:42:37,280 --> 00:42:43,840 over to predictions. Sure to go wrong. Because I think when we have seen this in the past where 453 00:42:43,840 --> 00:42:48,720 the bills have a clear advantage on paper, they've got a clear advantage with personnel. 454 00:42:49,440 --> 00:42:55,280 We have seen games go in a direction that we often do not expect. And I think here is the thing 455 00:42:55,280 --> 00:43:01,440 that is hard to quantify, but could tangibly affect the game. The dolphin season is on the line. 456 00:43:01,440 --> 00:43:06,320 Like if you are the dolphins and you lose this game, you're now a full game behind the jets and 457 00:43:06,320 --> 00:43:11,600 you still have to play the jets twice, I believe you've now gone 0 and 2 against the bills for the 458 00:43:11,600 --> 00:43:18,720 umpteenth year in a row. It winning the division is pretty much out of the realm of possibility. 459 00:43:19,280 --> 00:43:25,440 And because the AFC seems so wide open, you really need to go on a run and win all the 460 00:43:25,440 --> 00:43:31,600 rest of your games and win out to even factor into the wild card. The dolphins really need this game. 461 00:43:31,600 --> 00:43:36,320 And I think as a result of that, this could go one or two ways. And I don't think there's any in 462 00:43:36,320 --> 00:43:43,360 between the dolphins either come out like people on fire and absolutely give the bills more than 463 00:43:43,360 --> 00:43:51,440 they can handle. Or this is a team that is ready to hit Cancun in the off season. And it's only 464 00:43:51,440 --> 00:43:58,480 going to be one of the two. I thought their game against Arizona was deflating. And you could see 465 00:43:58,480 --> 00:44:02,960 it on their faces that even with two a back in that game, that's one that they like get away from 466 00:44:02,960 --> 00:44:10,160 them, particularly that defense, right? We're going to get Jekyll or Hyde in this game from the 467 00:44:10,160 --> 00:44:16,960 Miami Dolphins. And because of that, I'm having a hard time predicting a bill's blowout like a lot 468 00:44:16,960 --> 00:44:22,560 of folks are. I think it's going to be a closer game than we anticipate, only because I cannot 469 00:44:22,560 --> 00:44:28,560 imagine a Mike McDaniel lead team not put their best foot forward when literally their season is on 470 00:44:28,560 --> 00:44:35,760 the line. So let's move let's move it over to predictions JJ. All right, with all that being 471 00:44:35,760 --> 00:44:40,880 said, so let me give you the lines. Let me tell you all the fun stuff here. All right, so the bills 472 00:44:40,880 --> 00:44:45,920 are six point favorites. The overrunner on this game is 49 and a half. So Vegas is like, Oh, these 473 00:44:45,920 --> 00:44:49,520 guys are going to chuck it up against each other. I'm like, All right. All right, I don't know. 474 00:44:50,640 --> 00:44:56,560 Based on recent recent track record, I would think the bill's defense would be a get slightly 475 00:44:56,560 --> 00:45:02,720 more favorability there, but it is what it is. And the bills JJ have a clear advantage in a 476 00:45:02,720 --> 00:45:07,840 lot of advanced metrics in this game as well. So let's start with final score prediction. Where are 477 00:45:07,840 --> 00:45:17,920 you at? Dude, I can't I cannot see with with Terrell Bernard back in the fold with, you know, 478 00:45:17,920 --> 00:45:24,320 Von Miller looking like he said recently on a media hit that he feels better than he's felt in 479 00:45:24,320 --> 00:45:30,320 football in several years in terms of his health. And he was on a tear a sack per game for the first 480 00:45:30,320 --> 00:45:37,040 three games for the suspension. So I just see him also being fired up to kind of make some 481 00:45:37,040 --> 00:45:40,240 make some money on those big, you know, big money downs, third and longs. 482 00:45:41,360 --> 00:45:44,960 I just see this bill's defense, you know, being too much for the the dolphins to handle. 483 00:45:46,160 --> 00:45:50,880 Bill's 34 dolphins 20. Two touchdowns, two field goals. 484 00:45:50,880 --> 00:45:57,280 Yeah, I've seen, man, I've seen so many predictions go the same way. I'm gonna I'm gonna tell you, 485 00:45:57,280 --> 00:46:02,240 and I'm not completely throwing the first game of the season out that they played against Miami, 486 00:46:02,240 --> 00:46:07,520 because I do think, listen, Miami is not a good road team. They have traditionally not been a good 487 00:46:07,520 --> 00:46:12,240 road team under McDaniel. They're coming into a hostile environment with literally everything on 488 00:46:12,240 --> 00:46:20,160 the line. That being said, the buff, the reality of this Buffalo Bill's defense is that it still 489 00:46:20,160 --> 00:46:24,880 has a hard time getting off the field on third down, did a much better job against Seattle, 490 00:46:24,880 --> 00:46:30,400 right, put Seattle on some very unfavorable third and long situations. But their track record 491 00:46:30,400 --> 00:46:34,400 throughout the course of the season is that they're losing time of possession. This is a team 492 00:46:34,400 --> 00:46:40,800 that went from second in time of possession last year, JJ, to 20th so far this year. And it's got 493 00:46:40,800 --> 00:46:44,880 everything to do with the fact that this defense really struggles getting off the field on third 494 00:46:44,880 --> 00:46:52,240 down. I think the Miami Dolphins, if they're able to extend drives, if they're able to really tap 495 00:46:52,240 --> 00:46:58,080 into that run game, and utilize that three headed monster they have coming out of the backfield in 496 00:46:58,080 --> 00:47:04,000 the right way, I really do think it's a matter of they could keep Josh off of the field just long 497 00:47:04,000 --> 00:47:09,760 enough to make things a little bit squirrely for the bills. I'm still picking the bills to win, 498 00:47:09,760 --> 00:47:14,720 but this could be a weird one. This could be one of those weird bills games we look back on, 499 00:47:14,720 --> 00:47:19,760 we're like, oh man, we should have seen that one coming. I'm going to go bills 24, 500 00:47:19,760 --> 00:47:25,040 dolphins 21. I think it's going to be close. I'm also going to take the under on this one too. 501 00:47:25,040 --> 00:47:30,720 I just think Miami, I know they're known for their deep shots and going 80 yards at a time to 502 00:47:30,720 --> 00:47:35,520 tie a recal. I just think they're going to have to play a smarter brand of ball and keep Josh off 503 00:47:35,520 --> 00:47:41,600 the field, especially with all these defensive injuries they're suffering. See, and I get 504 00:47:41,600 --> 00:47:48,720 everything you said is very smart and very football savvy. For me, though, the question becomes, 505 00:47:50,000 --> 00:47:58,320 what has McDaniel showed against the bills, against the bill's defense that proves he can 506 00:47:58,320 --> 00:48:04,720 overcome their pretty basic scheme that has been duped and copied by so many powers. 507 00:48:04,720 --> 00:48:09,920 House teams in the league that if you have strong enough savvy enough coverage, 508 00:48:11,120 --> 00:48:17,600 you can take away to his first read, you can shut down Terry kill, and then you can just focus on, 509 00:48:17,600 --> 00:48:24,800 you know, collapsing on the run. So like it's just, I know it's been and I just haven't seen, 510 00:48:24,800 --> 00:48:30,640 I haven't seen him do that. There's a reason that the dolphins are what like one and nine in 511 00:48:30,640 --> 00:48:36,800 the past three years against teams above 500. There's a formula for it if you have a good 512 00:48:36,800 --> 00:48:39,600 enough roster and I think the bills have a better than good enough roster. 513 00:48:40,560 --> 00:48:46,960 Listen, I get it. Everything you said is 100% true. And this is a Miami Dolphins unit that is 514 00:48:46,960 --> 00:48:54,320 last, last 30 second in the league in points per game. Like even when Tua was in, this was not an 515 00:48:54,320 --> 00:49:00,720 offense that was necessarily clicking. And that's the, that's the struggle I have JJ because we are, 516 00:49:00,720 --> 00:49:07,280 we are so tuned in and tapped into the bills. We know so well what their weaknesses are. And if we 517 00:49:07,280 --> 00:49:12,640 were on the opposing squad, how we would exploit those weaknesses. The reality of this Miami Dolphins 518 00:49:12,640 --> 00:49:18,080 team and it bears repeating because we said it earlier, the way that the bills can be had and 519 00:49:18,080 --> 00:49:24,000 be gotten and be beat, the Miami dolphins don't have the scheme or the personnel to exploit that, 520 00:49:24,000 --> 00:49:30,640 right? I just, I'm going on vibes with this one, man. I cannot shake that if the Miami 521 00:49:30,640 --> 00:49:36,400 Dolphins come in and lay an absolute egg in this game and their season is over here at week, what 522 00:49:36,400 --> 00:49:43,440 is it nine, right? I think that is a franchise that's having a large, a different conversation 523 00:49:43,440 --> 00:49:51,120 about do we have the right head coach? Do we have the right personnel that we can sustainably keep 524 00:49:51,120 --> 00:49:57,680 on the roster now that we've decided to give our franchise QB $50 million a year, right? 525 00:49:58,320 --> 00:50:03,280 Like I don't want to put too much weight on a week nine game in 2024, but it just feels like if 526 00:50:03,280 --> 00:50:09,280 the dolphins don't get a win, there is a lot of longer term trajectory conversations they need to 527 00:50:09,280 --> 00:50:14,320 have as a franchise here if they can't get over the sum. Like if not now when for the squad, you 528 00:50:14,320 --> 00:50:22,160 know what I mean? Oh, I agree. I think that motivation by desperation is a real thing, but it can't 529 00:50:22,160 --> 00:50:29,200 make magical jumps in ability or skill. You know what I'm saying? Like, I get it. Yeah, they can be 530 00:50:29,200 --> 00:50:33,360 the most motivated team in the entire universe because I do think you're right. I think that 531 00:50:33,920 --> 00:50:39,040 there's a, there could be questions about jobs if, if they don't pull this one out, if they get 532 00:50:39,040 --> 00:50:42,560 swept by the bills and then lose to their first game in the Jets, they're pretty much out, 533 00:50:42,560 --> 00:50:47,680 out of the AFCs run for the whole season. I mean, they might not have to lose to the Jets. Like, 534 00:50:47,680 --> 00:50:53,680 they might just be done, right? It's, it is. Listen, I get it, right? And their salary cap 535 00:50:53,680 --> 00:50:58,240 situation is going to be a nightmare for a group guard, Lissa, whether or not they win this game, 536 00:50:58,240 --> 00:51:05,440 they're basically giving $120 million a year to two wide receivers and a quarterback. That's not 537 00:51:05,440 --> 00:51:11,520 a lot of room to build a roster and build a sustainable roster with depth either. And they've 538 00:51:11,520 --> 00:51:15,680 got issues all over it. I get it. Listen, I get it. This is a Buffalo Bills podcast, not a Miami 539 00:51:15,680 --> 00:51:22,960 Dolphins podcast. I get what you're saying, right? All right. Let's move on to props. You got props, 540 00:51:22,960 --> 00:51:29,600 I got props. I got one prop for you this week. Yeah, go for it. What is it? All right. Over under 541 00:51:29,600 --> 00:51:38,720 JJ on Jalen Ramsey giving up one and a half touchdowns. You think Josh Allen hits them for two? 542 00:51:38,720 --> 00:51:46,480 I think Josh is going to want to embarrass the stupid. He does it every time. He tries so hard. 543 00:51:46,480 --> 00:51:53,520 He tries so hard to make it. He does a really good job at it. I just think every time Coleman is 544 00:51:53,520 --> 00:51:58,640 lined up against Ramsey in the red zone, I think, listen, I think Brady is going to do this because 545 00:51:58,640 --> 00:52:04,240 we know that Brady likes to get player input on plays. I think every single run play that the 546 00:52:04,240 --> 00:52:10,000 Buffalo Bills put out there, Coleman is going to be lined up against Ramsey to absolutely plant him 547 00:52:10,000 --> 00:52:15,680 into the dirt. And I think when they're in the red zone, Coleman on Ramsey is going to be a thing 548 00:52:15,680 --> 00:52:23,040 that Josh goes to nine times out of 10. Oh, absolutely. I'm going to take the under just because 549 00:52:24,480 --> 00:52:30,640 you know, I think it's going to be it may be hard to get into those situations because I do think 550 00:52:30,640 --> 00:52:37,200 that the Bills are going to have a lot of availability in the run game. And I think that if I'm going 551 00:52:37,200 --> 00:52:42,720 to pick a player or players that I think are going to get the most run, it's Khalil Shakir 552 00:52:43,360 --> 00:52:49,200 and Dalton Kincaid given how weak this this team is in the center. I know that Josh Allen is going 553 00:52:49,200 --> 00:52:54,960 to want to punish jail in Ramsey. But I think that they're going to let Keon's blocking do that 554 00:52:54,960 --> 00:53:01,440 and probably throw one up in the red zone to try to to moss him. But I don't know it's going to be 555 00:53:01,440 --> 00:53:06,080 two touchdowns. So I'm going to take the under the under but not be not for a lack of trying. 556 00:53:06,800 --> 00:53:12,640 Yeah, I know. So as I said before, he has given up two total touchdowns this season on 21 targets. 557 00:53:13,840 --> 00:53:19,200 He may be targeted 21 times in this game by Josh. So I'm going to take the over just to be fun 558 00:53:19,200 --> 00:53:23,920 because I would love to see it happen. I would love for Josh to single handedly double the 559 00:53:23,920 --> 00:53:28,240 touchdowns allowed total for jail in Ramsey this season. I think it'd be amazing. All right, 560 00:53:28,240 --> 00:53:36,240 dude, what prop do you got for me? Plus minus half defensive touchdown for the bills. 561 00:53:38,320 --> 00:53:42,000 Oh, that's a good one. Yeah, your stuff's good. My stuff's petty. Your stuff's good. 562 00:53:43,200 --> 00:53:52,640 I I I want to go I'm going to go over listen to has not played well against this this Buffalo 563 00:53:52,640 --> 00:53:59,920 Bill's defense. He has been a bit of a turnover machine against the squad. His TD to INT ratio 564 00:53:59,920 --> 00:54:04,640 against Buffalo is upside down. And we have noted that this is a team that does not play well on 565 00:54:04,640 --> 00:54:11,040 the road. So I'm I'm going to go I'm going to go over as much as I think it's going to be a close 566 00:54:11,040 --> 00:54:16,160 game. I do think the bills defense is going to have some opportunities and do result Douglas. 567 00:54:16,160 --> 00:54:22,720 He's been jumping routes like crazy the past four weeks. He is so do he is so do it every 568 00:54:22,720 --> 00:54:28,880 time he jumps around. He is like trying to time it in stride so he can absolutely take off and go 569 00:54:28,880 --> 00:54:34,880 pick six. So I will I will do you one better. I will say it's a defensive touchdown provided by 570 00:54:34,880 --> 00:54:39,600 one result. Wow, that's a good. Okay, that's spicy. I'll make sure that's in the notes. I'm just 571 00:54:39,600 --> 00:54:44,000 going to say over. I think they're going to get one defensive touchdown. I don't know who it is. 572 00:54:44,000 --> 00:54:50,720 Hopefully it's I'm hoping for a Greg Rousseau or AJ Epinezza, you know, tap interception return 573 00:54:50,720 --> 00:54:55,360 for a touchdown or fumble recovery touchdown. Absolutely. No, that'd be great. What was that? 574 00:54:55,360 --> 00:55:01,440 That was the Austin Johnson KC to Hill connection last week. Yeah. Let's let's get some more of 575 00:55:01,440 --> 00:55:07,360 that cooking. All right, Johnson connection. Yes, I love it. Let's do it. Let's see it. All right, 576 00:55:07,360 --> 00:55:14,240 man. Well, always good. Pardon with you. We will see what we see against the dolphins of my trepidation 577 00:55:14,240 --> 00:55:19,440 is born from years of bills trauma or if like maybe I can make sense of football. I don't know. We'll 578 00:55:19,440 --> 00:55:23,920 see it. Watch it be a blow and it turns out I can't make sense of football for all of you listening 579 00:55:23,920 --> 00:55:28,480 at home like share and subscribe wherever you podcast YouTube in a couple of weeks. We are 580 00:55:28,480 --> 00:55:38,480 regretting regretting this decision every time we talk about it. Apple hands Spotify and as always, go bills.