Welcome back to the Buffalo bread podcast. We are recording the same day as the Buffalo
Bills taking on the Seattle Seahawks in week eight. All right, it's tough to it's tough
to keep track of it all while, you know, the bullets are flying down or midseason. We know
who these teams are in some in some ways. But as far as I can tell, I haven't I don't
really have an idea of who the Bills are or who the Seahawks are, which makes this match
up so intriguing and somewhat terrifying as a Bills fan. How are you doing?
It's feeling right about the same and you're completely right about it. This time of year
we're used to having data on teams. We're used to being able to kind of figure out who
teams are at this stage. But for a lot of reasons, I think the roster transition of
the Bills, the relative health of both of these teams has been in question all season
due. We just haven't seen yet a complete game with a complete roster from either of these
teams due to injury. So it's hard to kind of pinpoint what type of game we're going
to get from both of these teams. But it doesn't make it any less interesting to break down,
especially because health like it has for all the Bills games this season is going to
weigh very heavily on the outcome here, JJ.
So let's get into that right away with the Bills and the Seattle Seahawks injury reports.
Of course, most of you Bills fans out there have seen that Tarell Bernard, the captain
and kind of the beating heart of the Bills defense is going to be out with an injury
with a series of injuries, including his ankle and pectoral. And then Dwayne Carter, the
promising kind of upstart penetrating three tech defensive tackle who backs up at Oliver,
so out even though he recently looked like he was coming into his own and his is an injury
that looks like it's going to be much longer term. And then of course, Curtis Samuel probably
Bills Mafia's least favorite wide receiver of note also out of this game, which I don't
know that many people are really crying, you know, their eyes out about missing Curtis
Samuel for the Bills that those are the three injuries, of course, the most interesting
and most important and impactful as Tarell Bernard TV. And then for the Seahawks, I was
I was curious about this, Dan, I thought that the league did away with the doubtful status
and just had questionable and out and knows it designation. I thought that that was a
change that they made a few years ago, but we see the Seattle Seahawks injury report
includes incredible lion in a sea of gazelles. DK Matt calf is doubtful with the knee injuries
looks like a sprained or strained MCL. One of their seat starting CB Stray Brown is questionable
with an ankle, but did participate in practice on Friday. Neha Neha Maya Pritchett, another
one of their cornerbacks is questionable with an ankle. George fanter offens of tackle
questionable with a knee. So they got some some guys, Abraham Lucas, one of their offense
tackles also out. And then Cameron Young, DT doubtful and Mike Morris, one of the defense
event backup rotational defense events questionable.
Yeah, it looks like the Seahawks, despite all the guys that are out JJ are going to get
Rick Wollin back. And that's going to matter as we break down this passing game. Because
Devin Witherspoon and Rick Wollin are two of the best CBs in the league when they play
the outside together at limiting yardage on opposing team receptions. So this is going
to be very interesting to see. It looks like there's going to be a hard roof on this Buffalo
Bill's passing offense today if both of these guys do indeed go. So lots of intrigue JJ,
lots of different angles to break down. Where do you want to start? You want to start with
the Buffalo Bill's defense against the Seattle offense? Because I think if we do, there is
one name even if DK Metcalf doesn't play that reigns supreme. And that is Kenneth Walker.
Yeah, absolutely. Let's start D Dionne Oh, and I agree Kenneth Walker with the Bill's
propensity to give up, you know, large explosive plays in the run game. They have a good kind
of average yards against, you know, somewhere in the middle of the league. But their explosive
runs is near the bottom of the league in terms of number of, you know, runs 10 plus yards.
And so I'm quite worried about that Kenneth Walker is dynamic. He's a load. He's difficult
to bring down. He's shifty. He's got an incredible vision. And the Seattle Seahawks offensive
line even with banged up, you know, right tackle situations can move and reset the line
of scrimmage for Kenneth Walker. So I'm I'm worried about Kenneth Walker. What are your
kind of we can start there with the Seattle run game versus the Bill's like defense. And
for my money, it's interesting because this Seattle team does not pass. I'm sorry, does
not run as much as they pass. They pass like 69% of the time. It's kind of bonkers when
you have a talent like Kenneth Walker. They do. And Walker's been a little banged up this
season to he's been fighting some injuries that offensive line as we went through the
injury report has not been healthy in Seattle, but also even when they are healthy has not
been as good as they thought it would be this year. So again, we talked to the top of this
episode, these teams trying to figure out who they are and their identity. This feels
like one of those games JJ that the Seahawks are going to want to play a matchup. They're
going to want to play not necessarily against type because as you mentioned, this is a very
past heavy unit, but they're really going to want to take advantage of this Buffalo
Bill's run defense. And we broke this down on the post game pod from last week against
Tennessee. This Buffalo Bill's rush defense is an enigma wrapped in a riddle. They perpetually
play with a light box JJ, but as we know, they're one of the worst teams when it comes
to rush stop success rate and rush stop efficiency when they play with a light box. What they
have been relying on is the offense more often than not getting the game script that they
need in order to maximize that light box and force teams into passing. So sooner or later,
a lot of Buffalo Bill's opponents with the exception of Baltimore have had to go away
from the rush game late in games. Seattle is going to want to establish Kenneth Walker
early and even with Dwayne Carter, who has been an absolute rush stop when right Maven
this year, even with Dwayne Carter out. That's not really the type of run game that Seattle
wants to take advantage of. They want to rush it to the outside. They want to set the edge.
They want to get Walker in space and they want him to zoom. This is going to be a big gray
gruesome game because he is effectively our best edge when it comes to stopping the run.
And there's been times the Baltimore game comes to mind even that Jets game where teams
have chosen to run right at Russo at moments. I saw him and he has not been successful in
getting the win in the rush game. So I think that's a key matchup for me. It's going to
be what Seattle does the direction on the outside. They choose to send Walker and can
our guys, particularly Epinezza and Russo set the edge and went on the outside. Yeah,
that's going to be a big challenge. I did, you know, listen to some of the media this
week. I believe it was at Oliver who talked about how Kenneth Walker seems to be the kind
of guy who likes to find, find outside space, who tends to kind of scoot things towards,
towards the perimeter because that's where he works best and, you know, streak up the
sideline. And so, you know, between him and Zach Charbonnet for the Seahawks, there's
some, there's some juice there. And I'm worried about that because especially like you had
pointed out when the bills are at their worst, it's when they're not setting the game script.
And if Seattle comes out and kind of establishes physicality and really just runs the ball
straight at the bills and is successful in doing so, it's going to limit Josh Allen's
actions. It's going to set the defense on edge so that they're kind of getting tired
out more quickly. And, you know, you're going to see less splash plays if that happens.
And so those are all kinds of concerns I have about this game script and how things are
going to go today. I also can we talk a little bit about the bills, DBs and linebackers versus
Gino Smith's gunslinging, you know, approach? Yeah, I mean, I think we should because even
if Walker is not hitting the home run ball, if he's keeping them on schedule, JJ, we know
this Buffalo Bill's defense has had an atrocious time this season getting off the field on
third down. They are one of the worst teams by third down percentage given to opposing
teams in getting teams off the field this year. So if Walker is keeping them on schedule,
it plays right into the hands of the Gino Smith quick passing game, which is what the Seahawks
have tried to exploit this year. So yeah, let's get into it.
And they've done a wonderful job of exploiting it. The, you know, Gino Smith, this is not
your like, you know, father's Gino Smith, the Jets failed bust of a second round pick.
This guy who has re rekindled his career out there in Seattle has looked poised. One of
his most, you know, interesting traits is his ability to kind of stay in a collapsing
pocket and deliver the football into space to to somebody who you know, he needs to get
it to know a fan is a common outlet for him. And I think that that bodes pretty poorly
for the Bill's defense missing Terrell Bernard in that middle range of the defense. I think
that they're gonna they're gonna see some issues with Balan Specter replacing Terrell
Bernard in times on those critical third downs where he needs to squeeze a route and keep,
you know, keep Noah Fant honest. He's not shown that he's very good at that. He bet
he bites pretty hard on playfakes, which they do quite quite often. And especially if they've
established the run, then Gino Smith is going to hit the play action game all day. And that's
dangerous. It's quick, distributive, it's annoying passes to soft coverage. Gino Smith
is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL right now. He's the NFL, you know, passing
league or passing yard leader. And he's one of the best in the league right now at attacking
zone defenses and hitting kind of sit down routes and small small spaces. And that's
exactly the way the bills play defense. This is this is like I said at the open, such a
peculiar matchup because it seems don't see each other not common opponents. And they're
they each have things they do incredibly well that the opponent doesn't do well at all.
Yeah, JJ. And one of those things is limiting quick pressure. So this is going to be a day
where not just from the standpoint of the run game, but the pass game as well. If you
want to mitigate a lot of those quick pass timing routes that Buffalo may not see from
Seattle a whole lot because these two teams don't play each other as you mentioned, but
they see it a lot with Miami and they see it a lot with the Aaron Rogers version of the
new of the New York Jets. Quick pressure on the opposing QB is going to matter in this
game. I would argue that it's almost going to matter more than bringing the opposing
QB down. And the Buffalo bills JJ have the fourth highest quick pressure rate that is
getting pressure on our opposing QB in 2.5 seconds or under in the lead. Geno Smith has
faced the most quick pocket pressures out of any other QB in the league. We mentioned
this offense of line in Seattle is not playing well. They're not blocking well. And also
they've been injured. So this is a moment JJ where this game shocker for the two of us
to say this game is going to be one of the trenches on the defensive side of ball for
the Buffalo bills. Can they set the edge? Can our DBs come crashing down on Kenneth
Walker and limit his space on the sideline to maneuver and then can our defensive line
win their one on one matchups and get quick pressure on Geno Smith over the last two weeks.
His time to throw JJ has averaged above three seconds because he said to scramble. He said
to find extra space in the pocket and opposing DBs have done a good job of locking up this
wide receiver court in Seattle, which without DK Metcalf is a lot easier to do here. So
the Buffalo bills, defensive line JJ is going to have to come with it today if the Buffalo
bills are going to have a chance to win.
Absolutely. They have to win their one on one because the Seahawks like to use a lot
of bunch in three by one sets, including empty backfields. They will actually start with
Kenneth Walker in the backfield and then then motion them out oftentimes like the bills
do with James Cook. And that leaves Geno Smith completely alone with five protectors in
front of them with the down offensive lineman. And that is incredibly favorable if you're
a pass rusher because you know it's just the man in front of you potentially a double
team if you're an unlucky enough person to get the extra attention on that snap, but
you have to win quickly and win dominantly. And so I'm expecting and hoping for, it's
interesting because Greg Russo and AJ Ponezza have both sort of back and forth had solid
games, but neither one has been able to lock in while the other player was doing because
that's when we see the most sack production, right? It's when both edges are pressuring
at a high rate. And so hopefully they're able to sync up on this on this match because they
need to get to them quickly. And you know, they need to win their one on one very fast.
Absolutely. So overall JJ, players I am watching for the Buffalo bills on the defensive side.
I'm looking at Greg Russo and both the quick pressure game and also the runstop game. This
is also a game where you've got to be thankful to turn Johnson is healthy because he's going
to fit very, very well, not just into crashing down on Kenneth Walker, but also what JSN
is going to want to do for the Seattle Seahawks in space. Johnson is going to be a key factor.
And then the other guy I'm watching is bail inspector. I think, listen, we know what Dorian
Williams is. And while he is having a better than expected start to his season this year,
he still bites on a lot of heavy play action. And if I'm the Seahawks, I am constantly targeting
Dorian Williams and bail inspector with play action. But all in the run game more for me,
I want to see specter get off a block. This is a guy who really gets stuck when going
up against opposing teams blockers and he just can't seem to shed free. So yeah, he
gets caught up in the mud a lot. A lot. I mean, that was the that was the knock we had
on Jack Campbell, the now Detroit Lions linebacker coming out of the draft as to why and why a
big reason why we didn't think the bill should draft him. Well, they have lesser Jack Campbell
playing now with a bail inspector in and it's going to be key for him to shed blocks and
really be in pursuit in the quick pass game, but also in the run game too.
I also think, you know, in these are kind of my closing thoughts on on bills, D versus
Seattle, oh, the bills are the 10th best in the league against opposing wide, outside
wide receivers, because we've had such a good year. I mean, Christian Benford is is shaping
up to to be an all pro caliber campaign without the interception numbers, he probably won't
be considered for it. But his stats and measurables and the kind of assessment data that you use
to to see how a, you know, an outside corner is playing. He's at the top of the league
in almost everything. They've had the you know, the bills, DB's on the outside have
logged more interceptions collected than TV's allowed, which is a really nice stat. And
hopefully they can keep that kind of pressure on in this game. And then the bills versus
running back receptions on the backfield 29th in the week, league third worst. So that's
a concern for me as well, that we haven't really addressed this Kenneth Walker catching
balls out of the backfield. And the Seattle Seahawks like to use that quick distributive
passing game with whip screens and draw in different draw concepts and then screen screens
to the running backs and the outside wide receivers on the perimeter, their staples
of the playbook. So those are all things that we've seen the bills struggle with. And don't
you know, don't think it's it's lost on on anybody that the head coach of the Seattle
Seahawks was the former defensive coordinator of the Baltimore Ravens who absolutely destroyed
the bills. And I'm sure he still has friends in that building who are happy to, you know,
give him some pointers in a week where they can they the Seattle Seahawks and out of
conference team can try to log a win against an in-conference rival in the bills.
Absolutely, dude. It feels like this Buffalo Bill's defense is coming in on a lower note
than they have been in the past few seasons. A lot due to injury, a lot due to the roster
turnover, but we're just not seeing the production that we're used to. This is the epitome of
a bend, don't break defense. And I worry what's going to happen if they're tested into in
fact break and certain key red zone situations this week.
All right, man, let's flip it. Let's talk about J A 17 against this Mike McDonald coached
and coordinated Seattle Seahawks defense. For me, JJ, it all starts with that defensive
line in Seattle. It's finally gotten healthy. This is a bigger unit with a good mix of guys
with some bulk and size. And I think that's going to spell some trouble for James Cook
in the run game today, JJ. What do you think?
I think I think it will. And the four down linemen is from a three four alignment. Their
base D includes an outside linebacker playing one of those down linemen positions. And they
have a true old school nose tackle and Jonathan Hankins right in the middle of that bed.
He's a big boy.
Oh, my goodness, 325 6 3. So he's a compact 325. And with Jonathan Hankins and Leonard
Williams, who the bills remember from the Jets, they've got a solid pair of interior
defenders against the run, which is surprising because their run defense looks actually very
shaky and teams have been able to establish the run on them often. But that doesn't I'm
not sleeping on them. I think that, you know, when they have Roy Robertson Harris is one
of the players coming off the bench for them and he plays, you know, with his hair on fire.
He definitely gets some penetration Byron Murphy at top half of the draft, you know, defensive
tackle pick that you loved coming out during that process.
Oh, I did. I did. And this defensive line to JJ, a reason for a lot of their advanced
metrics, they haven't been healthy either. This is fixing to be just the second game
where their ideal starting defensive line unit is going to be out there against the bills.
So that can make a big difference.
Yeah, it I'm I'm worried because the, you know, they're outside linebackers that tend
to rush from the edges, Derek Hall and Boya Mafia are both. Yeah, I mean, they are the
in the in the same tune as the the Baltimore Ravens defense that stymied the bills. It's
the same design, which uses simulated pressure. So four player only four players are coming,
but you don't know which four are coming. And, you know, somebody's dropping out into
a short zone and, you know, a player that you're not expecting is coming. That has shown
this this season to really stymie the bill's offense. And I haven't seen Joe Brady come
up with really good Blitz beaters or pressure beaters for that. Josh Allen has also been
pretty poor at, you know, shifting or designing his coverage or his protection aspects to
to keep him clean in those snaps. And so that's a big concern of mine. This the defense for
Seattle is they get they have the highest, let's see, not the highest, seventh highest
QB pressure rate in the league, pure kind of across the board pressure rate, but they
have the fifth lowest Blitz percentage. So they send for most of the time. It's just
because of like I mentioned with the simulated pressure, the four that are coming are not
always the down line men plus one one outside linebacker who's who's got his hand in the
dirt. It might be a corner, it might be a linebacker from the center. And so there's
some there's some difficulty there. I don't like I don't like this matchup for the bills.
I think that especially because they use twists and stunts loads all the time, it's a constant
shifting kind of map and battlefield in the trenches with the Seahawks and that I think
has also shown trouble for the bill's offensive line, which the bill's offensive line is one
of the top three units in the league in past protection. Josh Allen has been sacked the
least of any quarterback and that's part in doing part because he's Josh Allen. And also
because this line has been doing a really good job. The times where they haven't been
doing a good job is when they're going in stunts and shifts. And I think that the reason
the Seahawks D line is bad at rushing is as one unified pressure unit. And they get out
of gaps in their run fits is because they're doing their best stunting and twisting. So
that's why they're vulnerable to the run is because they're oftentimes not in a kind of
uniform crush pressure straight up everyone's standing your lanes. But that's also the benefit
they have in past rushing that will cause the bills some problems today. So yeah, I think
that there's opportunities for the bills to run on this team. It's there's some challenges
with the pressure looks on in the past game. And there is some, you know, general challenges
with, you know, the Seattle defense because the outside corners are also very good. As
you mentioned earlier, I will say one thing, target Tyrell Dodson, you know him better
than anybody, you know where he struggles. There's reasons he was coming off the field
on third down against, you know, opponents last year. Go after him. Can cage should absolutely
eat Tyrell Dodson's lunch anytime that matchup is exposed.
Well, and you're going to need it to I mean, we mentioned with a reek wall and being back
in and lining up with Devin Witherspoon, according to NFL next gen stats JJ, they rank
third and fifth respectively by fewest yards allowed per covered snap. This includes yak
yards, which for the first time in Josh Allen's career, more than 50% of his total yardage
has come from yak. This is what the Buffalo Bills and Brandon Bean have been trying to
build with a with Josh Allen, find some playmakers that he can get the ball to and space with
some quick easy completions and let them do a majority of the work that is happening
this year. They just happen to be going up against an outside corner duo that really
limits yak because of their athleticism and speed and are two of the best both on the
top five in the league this year at limiting those types of plays. You have to expose the
middle of the field. If this is an adult and can cave game JJ, I don't know what is and
I feel like I've said that 37 times already in an eight week season, but this feels like
with Dodson on the other end of things. This has to be the this has to be the concave game.
Am I right? Am I crazy? Is this finally the concave game?
No, you're not crazy. I also think this is a good game for Keon Coleman to take some
of Curtis Samuels snaps in the in the slot, give him a two way release and let him work
in the middle a little bit. He's got good chemistry or better chemistry with Josh Allen
every week as the season goes on had his best week as a you know, best week as a all around
NFL, Bill's rookie receiver since Sammy Watkins, you know, last week, of course, with the the
massive kind of blow up and in yardage and should have been like 139 and a touchdown
if you would have gotten that that other foot down, you know, clean. So I think that, you
know, this is definitely a good week to expose the middle of the field. The Seahawks just
traded. They traded. Who was it? They traded by no, they traded the former, the linebacker
What's his name?
The linebacker from Miami. Ernest. No, they got Ernest Jones from from the time. Yes,
it was a linebacker for linebacker swap. I can't remember what it was.
I can't remember. It doesn't matter. He's not on the team. They've got Ernest Jones
now who just played the bills last week and was was a bright spot for the Titans defense
in the second half, even at times that they were struggling against the bills. Ernest
Jones wasn't the reason often he was in good using a position because he tended to, you
know, be able to use a little bit of an upgrade in coverage from the previous linebacker.
And then Tarrell Dotson, I think is a bit of a liability in coverage. I will say though,
Tarrell Dotson strength when he was with the bills was always run fits and like cleaning
up on the run and firing and shooting his gun downhill. He looks a lot lighter and quicker
this season, but it doesn't seem to have answered the question that he probably was trying to
solve by getting lighter and quicker. He still looks bad in coverage and he looks worse in
the run. Yeah, absolutely. I mean, all around his
his advanced metrics and analytics from last season have taken a huge dip. I mean, dude,
play action. Can we get back to play action against this? You know, please. Like Josh
under center play action. Can we hit it? He has a near perfect passer rating this season
when the bills go to play action. The problem is they have decreased their percentage of
overall plays by play action by more than double over the last four weeks. I don't know what's
going on. I don't I don't know what Brady is seeing from the booth is he is calling these
plays, but let's get Josh back under center and let's run play action because we will
absolutely eat over the middle of the field. If that is the case,
absolutely. And I'm I'm worried the same as I'm sure Joe Brady, if we don't see a bunch
of play action right out the gate, it's because he's going to be very anxious about the pass
rush and the pressure. And I think you have to just ignore that you have to just say,
okay, like make the play action work quickly, Josh, get your head back around and do magic
because that's going to be the way that they suck those linebackers up, especially Ernest
Jones on a short week in a new defense. That's going to be the way that you kind of manipulate
those linebackers and open up the middle of the field because the film I watched most
of it was without req Wollin on the field. And my notes when I was watching the Seahawks
this week was that the DBs are technically sound with coverage and closing click quickly
in there from their zone reads. After they hit their landmarks, but they can miss tackles
and take bad angles. I think that that is true as for the rest of the DBs, that's not true
for req Wollin, he's going to close quickly and stop the yards after the catch. So, you
know, I, I do think there's opportunities there because they they're technically sound
they're good in space, but they do leave cushions. And so just like the bills that they have
a similar bed, but don't break. It's the reason that every team they've gone against
his score over 20 points. And so, you know, I think that there's opportunities. I hope
that they don't get they're not too afraid of the pressure and having Josh turn his back
on the defense to try play action because I agree with you. I think that is absolutely
a cheat code against this defense.
I mean, I, I agree with you on some of the advanced metrics on our offensive line. I
also think a lot of that has to do the fact that Josh Allen is relatively unsacquable
too. I think Josh, like a QB like a Justin Fields can make your offensive line metrics
look worse by hanging onto the ball and taking sex. I think Josh elevates the offensive line
metrics a little bit, just because he is so unsacquable. I just watch film on this offensive
line and they are still good. And I think there's a lot of teams and fan bases that
would trade their offensive line for ours in a heartbeat, but it is not as good as last
year's unit. And I think that's why we're seeing less play action. I think against competent
defensive lines and past rushes. I think we have seen this offensive line struggle a bit.
And we've seen Spencer Brown have some of his most yo-yo type of games over the past four
weeks where he looks stellar. Then he gets some above average competition. He doesn't
look great. And I think that is the variance of this offensive line. And as a result, you're
right. I think Joe Brady is afraid to have Josh put his back to the defense because he
doesn't know week in and week out how this offensive unit is going to hold up against
a pass rush.
I don't have very much else to say about the, you know, Seahawks D against this Bill Zoh.
I will say, I'm just going to throw a proper at you right away. I think this is a game
that sees one or more special teams touchdown one, one or more over, over.5 special teams
touchdowns. And I don't know who's going to get it, but the both teams on special teams
have such high variance and have either achieved or given up a kick return or punt return touchdown
this season, which are not happening at a great rate. And so I just, it's kind of goes
back to my opening statements about the game and how weird it is an uncommon opponent,
uncharacteristic up and down play. Both teams have, you know, hot and cold times. I just
see this as one of those games where like something funky happens. Another kind of somebody
else in Bill's media, maybe it was sell Capaccio described the Seahawks as a high act activity
team, a high action team that they just have a lot of variance and a lot of huge weird plays
happen to them and against them.
Yeah. I mean, that can be pretty accurate, right? And it's tracks with what we're seeing
on film and what we're seeing in the stat packages. I'm still going to go under. I,
because I don't know how good, I don't know how I would want the bills to come out ahead
on that prop for obvious reasons. And I just don't know how good the bill special team
unit is at this point. And it's interesting because it is such a priority for this, this
personnel management group and the coaching staff. I just, I don't know how good they
are. So I'm going to, I'm going to take under, I guess, I don't know. It's a weird one, man.
I'm going to go under just because I don't have a whole lot of confidence that the bills
can can strike gold on that based on what I've seen in the return game so far.
I've got a quick prep for you, JJ. And then let's get to scores here. I mentioned how
bad the Buffalo Bills defense was on a third down. They are the 10th worst team in the
league at getting off the field on third down. JJ, this Buffalo Bills offense is just as
bad, if not worse. They are currently the eighth worst team in converting on third downs,
which is a huge departure offensively from what we are used to seeing from this bill
squad where they regularly rank is the top one or two teams when it comes to offensive
third down conversion. JJ, their conversion rate this year is 33.8% overall, better than
only the New England Patriots, the dolphins, the Raiders, the Titans, the Panthers, the
Broncos, and the Browns. The Jacksonville Jaguars and Philadelphia Eagles, two messes of franchises
and offensive units are both better in third down conversion success than the Bills are.
JJ, is this an anomaly or is this something that we're going to see more regularly from
the Bills? And I'm going to put it in a prop for you because I think it's hopefully an
anomaly. The Buffalo Bills over under 39.5% on third down conversion success rate against
the Seahawks. Over. And I think the reason I'm bullish on this is because of the Amari
Cooper factor. I think that is a thing that he provides to this offense that they have
not had that we saw with stuff on digs is that kind of Alpha dog a one wide receiver
who when you just need somebody to go uncovered for seven yards and throw a competitive ball
to and how and trust them that they're going to come away with it or break up an interception.
I think that that's the Amari Cooper factor. I think that he provides some of that possession
receiver acumen and quick separation acumen. And then I also think that Keon Coleman might
have a bigger, bigger role in those types of settings because Josh Allen has tried to
force those settings to Keon, Keon Coleman before. But I think that it was situations
where Keon might have been against a more veteran, more skilled outside corner than
he may get a map, get it may get matched up to with Amari Cooper present. I think with
a whole week to kind of get integrated in the game plan a little bit more that we could
see Amari Cooper, you know, start to fix that metric for the bills. And hopefully by the
end of the season, we see that it was an aberration of early clunkiness with only Khalil Shakir
being somebody who Josh Allen had connected with prior in the wide receiver room.
Yeah, absolutely. I think from a personnel standpoint, it's a good matchup. As you mentioned,
Seattle struggles at getting off the field on third down, they're kind of middle of the
pack, I'd say average in the league. There's been there a number 14. But the Seahawks,
they are flagged for a lot of penalties on defense, man, they're tied for six in the
league. And I could see a couple of situations where the bills are gifted a few, just because
the Seattle defense struggles with penalties this game. So, so we'll see. All right, let's
get to final score JJ. Here's what we got. The over under the over under on this game
is 45 points is fluctuated pretty heavily based on the injury report this week. The
bills open as a three and a half point favorite that has come back down to three points, occurring
to Draft King sports book, the bills still favored to win this game on the road in a
hostile environment. Their fourth road game in five weeks JJ come on NFL schedulers makers.
Here's what we got JJ final score. My prediction here is going to be Buffalo Bills 27 Seattle
Seahawks 21. I believe the bills will pull this one out. I believe that they will cover
and I believe we will just eke over the over for total points in this game because I like
overall the Buffalo Bills match up in the middle of the field again to your point this
is a Keon Coleman Dalton concade game. And those are both chunk yardage players. And
I think the bills have a chance to really exploit that.
I like it. I like it. I look all of your explanations as to how they're going to get their work
for me. I had the bills going a little bit higher and probably pointing to the you know,
as I was coming up with my thoughts for this match up throughout the week watching film
and then checking out both these teams and kind of where they stand right now. I was
thinking that the variability in the kind of like the surprise, you know, special teams
touchdown or something like that might be might be a factor and push it a little higher.
So I had the bills 31 Seahawks 24. I think this is going to be a nail biter. I think
that people are going to be uncomfy for most of the fourth quarter in Bill's mafia, unfortunately.
But I do think the bills come out ahead by a touchdown. So I think they cover and I think
that they hit the over with, you know, 55 total points. The Seahawks, it's strange. They
their defense has given up a lot of points this season and they tend to also score a
lot of points, you know, I think it's over 20 every every game they've played. So I don't
see that changing. They have the possibility of explosive plays even without DK MacGaff
in the lineup. So I'm seeing the bills 31 Seahawks 24. I have the bills to win and I
have them to hit the over.
Yeah, absolutely, man. Absolutely. All right. Can't wait to watch it. Another road game,
another hostile environment. It's going to be great for all of you listening at home,
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Apple and Spotify and as always, Go Bills. Go Bills.