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Welcome back to the Buffalo bread podcast. We are recording the same day as the Buffalo

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Bills taking on the Seattle Seahawks in week eight. All right, it's tough to it's tough

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to keep track of it all while, you know, the bullets are flying down or midseason. We know

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who these teams are in some in some ways. But as far as I can tell, I haven't I don't

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really have an idea of who the Bills are or who the Seahawks are, which makes this match

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up so intriguing and somewhat terrifying as a Bills fan. How are you doing?

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It's feeling right about the same and you're completely right about it. This time of year

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we're used to having data on teams. We're used to being able to kind of figure out who

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teams are at this stage. But for a lot of reasons, I think the roster transition of

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the Bills, the relative health of both of these teams has been in question all season

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due. We just haven't seen yet a complete game with a complete roster from either of these

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teams due to injury. So it's hard to kind of pinpoint what type of game we're going

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to get from both of these teams. But it doesn't make it any less interesting to break down,

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especially because health like it has for all the Bills games this season is going to

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weigh very heavily on the outcome here, JJ.

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So let's get into that right away with the Bills and the Seattle Seahawks injury reports.

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Of course, most of you Bills fans out there have seen that Tarell Bernard, the captain

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and kind of the beating heart of the Bills defense is going to be out with an injury

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with a series of injuries, including his ankle and pectoral. And then Dwayne Carter, the

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promising kind of upstart penetrating three tech defensive tackle who backs up at Oliver,

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so out even though he recently looked like he was coming into his own and his is an injury

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that looks like it's going to be much longer term. And then of course, Curtis Samuel probably

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Bills Mafia's least favorite wide receiver of note also out of this game, which I don't

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know that many people are really crying, you know, their eyes out about missing Curtis

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Samuel for the Bills that those are the three injuries, of course, the most interesting

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and most important and impactful as Tarell Bernard TV. And then for the Seahawks, I was

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I was curious about this, Dan, I thought that the league did away with the doubtful status

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and just had questionable and out and knows it designation. I thought that that was a

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change that they made a few years ago, but we see the Seattle Seahawks injury report

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includes incredible lion in a sea of gazelles. DK Matt calf is doubtful with the knee injuries

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looks like a sprained or strained MCL. One of their seat starting CB Stray Brown is questionable

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with an ankle, but did participate in practice on Friday. Neha Neha Maya Pritchett, another

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one of their cornerbacks is questionable with an ankle. George fanter offens of tackle

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questionable with a knee. So they got some some guys, Abraham Lucas, one of their offense

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tackles also out. And then Cameron Young, DT doubtful and Mike Morris, one of the defense

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event backup rotational defense events questionable.

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Yeah, it looks like the Seahawks, despite all the guys that are out JJ are going to get

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Rick Wollin back. And that's going to matter as we break down this passing game. Because

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Devin Witherspoon and Rick Wollin are two of the best CBs in the league when they play

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the outside together at limiting yardage on opposing team receptions. So this is going

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to be very interesting to see. It looks like there's going to be a hard roof on this Buffalo

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Bill's passing offense today if both of these guys do indeed go. So lots of intrigue JJ,

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lots of different angles to break down. Where do you want to start? You want to start with

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the Buffalo Bill's defense against the Seattle offense? Because I think if we do, there is

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one name even if DK Metcalf doesn't play that reigns supreme. And that is Kenneth Walker.

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Yeah, absolutely. Let's start D Dionne Oh, and I agree Kenneth Walker with the Bill's

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propensity to give up, you know, large explosive plays in the run game. They have a good kind

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of average yards against, you know, somewhere in the middle of the league. But their explosive

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runs is near the bottom of the league in terms of number of, you know, runs 10 plus yards.

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And so I'm quite worried about that Kenneth Walker is dynamic. He's a load. He's difficult

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to bring down. He's shifty. He's got an incredible vision. And the Seattle Seahawks offensive

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line even with banged up, you know, right tackle situations can move and reset the line

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of scrimmage for Kenneth Walker. So I'm I'm worried about Kenneth Walker. What are your

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kind of we can start there with the Seattle run game versus the Bill's like defense. And

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for my money, it's interesting because this Seattle team does not pass. I'm sorry, does

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not run as much as they pass. They pass like 69% of the time. It's kind of bonkers when

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you have a talent like Kenneth Walker. They do. And Walker's been a little banged up this

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season to he's been fighting some injuries that offensive line as we went through the

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injury report has not been healthy in Seattle, but also even when they are healthy has not

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been as good as they thought it would be this year. So again, we talked to the top of this

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episode, these teams trying to figure out who they are and their identity. This feels

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like one of those games JJ that the Seahawks are going to want to play a matchup. They're

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going to want to play not necessarily against type because as you mentioned, this is a very

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past heavy unit, but they're really going to want to take advantage of this Buffalo

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Bill's run defense. And we broke this down on the post game pod from last week against

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Tennessee. This Buffalo Bill's rush defense is an enigma wrapped in a riddle. They perpetually

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play with a light box JJ, but as we know, they're one of the worst teams when it comes

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to rush stop success rate and rush stop efficiency when they play with a light box. What they

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have been relying on is the offense more often than not getting the game script that they

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need in order to maximize that light box and force teams into passing. So sooner or later,

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a lot of Buffalo Bill's opponents with the exception of Baltimore have had to go away

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from the rush game late in games. Seattle is going to want to establish Kenneth Walker

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early and even with Dwayne Carter, who has been an absolute rush stop when right Maven

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this year, even with Dwayne Carter out. That's not really the type of run game that Seattle

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wants to take advantage of. They want to rush it to the outside. They want to set the edge.

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They want to get Walker in space and they want him to zoom. This is going to be a big gray

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gruesome game because he is effectively our best edge when it comes to stopping the run.

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And there's been times the Baltimore game comes to mind even that Jets game where teams

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have chosen to run right at Russo at moments. I saw him and he has not been successful in

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getting the win in the rush game. So I think that's a key matchup for me. It's going to

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be what Seattle does the direction on the outside. They choose to send Walker and can

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our guys, particularly Epinezza and Russo set the edge and went on the outside. Yeah,

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that's going to be a big challenge. I did, you know, listen to some of the media this

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week. I believe it was at Oliver who talked about how Kenneth Walker seems to be the kind

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of guy who likes to find, find outside space, who tends to kind of scoot things towards,

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towards the perimeter because that's where he works best and, you know, streak up the

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sideline. And so, you know, between him and Zach Charbonnet for the Seahawks, there's

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some, there's some juice there. And I'm worried about that because especially like you had

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pointed out when the bills are at their worst, it's when they're not setting the game script.

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And if Seattle comes out and kind of establishes physicality and really just runs the ball

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straight at the bills and is successful in doing so, it's going to limit Josh Allen's

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actions. It's going to set the defense on edge so that they're kind of getting tired

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out more quickly. And, you know, you're going to see less splash plays if that happens.

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And so those are all kinds of concerns I have about this game script and how things are

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going to go today. I also can we talk a little bit about the bills, DBs and linebackers versus

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Gino Smith's gunslinging, you know, approach? Yeah, I mean, I think we should because even

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if Walker is not hitting the home run ball, if he's keeping them on schedule, JJ, we know

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this Buffalo Bill's defense has had an atrocious time this season getting off the field on

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third down. They are one of the worst teams by third down percentage given to opposing

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teams in getting teams off the field this year. So if Walker is keeping them on schedule,

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it plays right into the hands of the Gino Smith quick passing game, which is what the Seahawks

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have tried to exploit this year. So yeah, let's get into it.

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And they've done a wonderful job of exploiting it. The, you know, Gino Smith, this is not

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your like, you know, father's Gino Smith, the Jets failed bust of a second round pick.

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This guy who has re rekindled his career out there in Seattle has looked poised. One of

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his most, you know, interesting traits is his ability to kind of stay in a collapsing

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pocket and deliver the football into space to to somebody who you know, he needs to get

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it to know a fan is a common outlet for him. And I think that that bodes pretty poorly

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for the Bill's defense missing Terrell Bernard in that middle range of the defense. I think

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that they're gonna they're gonna see some issues with Balan Specter replacing Terrell

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Bernard in times on those critical third downs where he needs to squeeze a route and keep,

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you know, keep Noah Fant honest. He's not shown that he's very good at that. He bet

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he bites pretty hard on playfakes, which they do quite quite often. And especially if they've

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established the run, then Gino Smith is going to hit the play action game all day. And that's

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dangerous. It's quick, distributive, it's annoying passes to soft coverage. Gino Smith

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is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL right now. He's the NFL, you know, passing

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league or passing yard leader. And he's one of the best in the league right now at attacking

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zone defenses and hitting kind of sit down routes and small small spaces. And that's

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exactly the way the bills play defense. This is this is like I said at the open, such a

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peculiar matchup because it seems don't see each other not common opponents. And they're

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they each have things they do incredibly well that the opponent doesn't do well at all.

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Yeah, JJ. And one of those things is limiting quick pressure. So this is going to be a day

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where not just from the standpoint of the run game, but the pass game as well. If you

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want to mitigate a lot of those quick pass timing routes that Buffalo may not see from

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Seattle a whole lot because these two teams don't play each other as you mentioned, but

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they see it a lot with Miami and they see it a lot with the Aaron Rogers version of the

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new of the New York Jets. Quick pressure on the opposing QB is going to matter in this

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game. I would argue that it's almost going to matter more than bringing the opposing

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QB down. And the Buffalo bills JJ have the fourth highest quick pressure rate that is

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getting pressure on our opposing QB in 2.5 seconds or under in the lead. Geno Smith has

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faced the most quick pocket pressures out of any other QB in the league. We mentioned

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this offense of line in Seattle is not playing well. They're not blocking well. And also

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they've been injured. So this is a moment JJ where this game shocker for the two of us

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to say this game is going to be one of the trenches on the defensive side of ball for

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the Buffalo bills. Can they set the edge? Can our DBs come crashing down on Kenneth

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Walker and limit his space on the sideline to maneuver and then can our defensive line

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win their one on one matchups and get quick pressure on Geno Smith over the last two weeks.

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His time to throw JJ has averaged above three seconds because he said to scramble. He said

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to find extra space in the pocket and opposing DBs have done a good job of locking up this

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wide receiver court in Seattle, which without DK Metcalf is a lot easier to do here. So

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the Buffalo bills, defensive line JJ is going to have to come with it today if the Buffalo

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bills are going to have a chance to win.

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Absolutely. They have to win their one on one because the Seahawks like to use a lot

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of bunch in three by one sets, including empty backfields. They will actually start with

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Kenneth Walker in the backfield and then then motion them out oftentimes like the bills

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do with James Cook. And that leaves Geno Smith completely alone with five protectors in

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front of them with the down offensive lineman. And that is incredibly favorable if you're

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a pass rusher because you know it's just the man in front of you potentially a double

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team if you're an unlucky enough person to get the extra attention on that snap, but

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you have to win quickly and win dominantly. And so I'm expecting and hoping for, it's

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interesting because Greg Russo and AJ Ponezza have both sort of back and forth had solid

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games, but neither one has been able to lock in while the other player was doing because

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that's when we see the most sack production, right? It's when both edges are pressuring

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at a high rate. And so hopefully they're able to sync up on this on this match because they

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need to get to them quickly. And you know, they need to win their one on one very fast.

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Absolutely. So overall JJ, players I am watching for the Buffalo bills on the defensive side.

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I'm looking at Greg Russo and both the quick pressure game and also the runstop game. This

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is also a game where you've got to be thankful to turn Johnson is healthy because he's going

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to fit very, very well, not just into crashing down on Kenneth Walker, but also what JSN

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is going to want to do for the Seattle Seahawks in space. Johnson is going to be a key factor.

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And then the other guy I'm watching is bail inspector. I think, listen, we know what Dorian

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Williams is. And while he is having a better than expected start to his season this year,

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he still bites on a lot of heavy play action. And if I'm the Seahawks, I am constantly targeting

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Dorian Williams and bail inspector with play action. But all in the run game more for me,

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I want to see specter get off a block. This is a guy who really gets stuck when going

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up against opposing teams blockers and he just can't seem to shed free. So yeah, he

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gets caught up in the mud a lot. A lot. I mean, that was the that was the knock we had

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on Jack Campbell, the now Detroit Lions linebacker coming out of the draft as to why and why a

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big reason why we didn't think the bill should draft him. Well, they have lesser Jack Campbell

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playing now with a bail inspector in and it's going to be key for him to shed blocks and

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really be in pursuit in the quick pass game, but also in the run game too.

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I also think, you know, in these are kind of my closing thoughts on on bills, D versus

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Seattle, oh, the bills are the 10th best in the league against opposing wide, outside

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wide receivers, because we've had such a good year. I mean, Christian Benford is is shaping

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up to to be an all pro caliber campaign without the interception numbers, he probably won't

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be considered for it. But his stats and measurables and the kind of assessment data that you use

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to to see how a, you know, an outside corner is playing. He's at the top of the league

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in almost everything. They've had the you know, the bills, DB's on the outside have

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logged more interceptions collected than TV's allowed, which is a really nice stat. And

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hopefully they can keep that kind of pressure on in this game. And then the bills versus

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running back receptions on the backfield 29th in the week, league third worst. So that's

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a concern for me as well, that we haven't really addressed this Kenneth Walker catching

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balls out of the backfield. And the Seattle Seahawks like to use that quick distributive

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passing game with whip screens and draw in different draw concepts and then screen screens

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to the running backs and the outside wide receivers on the perimeter, their staples

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of the playbook. So those are all things that we've seen the bills struggle with. And don't

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you know, don't think it's it's lost on on anybody that the head coach of the Seattle

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Seahawks was the former defensive coordinator of the Baltimore Ravens who absolutely destroyed

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the bills. And I'm sure he still has friends in that building who are happy to, you know,

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give him some pointers in a week where they can they the Seattle Seahawks and out of

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conference team can try to log a win against an in-conference rival in the bills.

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Absolutely, dude. It feels like this Buffalo Bill's defense is coming in on a lower note

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than they have been in the past few seasons. A lot due to injury, a lot due to the roster

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turnover, but we're just not seeing the production that we're used to. This is the epitome of

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a bend, don't break defense. And I worry what's going to happen if they're tested into in

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fact break and certain key red zone situations this week.

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All right, man, let's flip it. Let's talk about J A 17 against this Mike McDonald coached

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and coordinated Seattle Seahawks defense. For me, JJ, it all starts with that defensive

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line in Seattle. It's finally gotten healthy. This is a bigger unit with a good mix of guys

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with some bulk and size. And I think that's going to spell some trouble for James Cook

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in the run game today, JJ. What do you think?

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I think I think it will. And the four down linemen is from a three four alignment. Their

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base D includes an outside linebacker playing one of those down linemen positions. And they

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have a true old school nose tackle and Jonathan Hankins right in the middle of that bed.

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He's a big boy.

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Oh, my goodness, 325 6 3. So he's a compact 325. And with Jonathan Hankins and Leonard

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Williams, who the bills remember from the Jets, they've got a solid pair of interior

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defenders against the run, which is surprising because their run defense looks actually very

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shaky and teams have been able to establish the run on them often. But that doesn't I'm

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not sleeping on them. I think that, you know, when they have Roy Robertson Harris is one

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of the players coming off the bench for them and he plays, you know, with his hair on fire.

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He definitely gets some penetration Byron Murphy at top half of the draft, you know, defensive

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tackle pick that you loved coming out during that process.

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Oh, I did. I did. And this defensive line to JJ, a reason for a lot of their advanced

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metrics, they haven't been healthy either. This is fixing to be just the second game

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where their ideal starting defensive line unit is going to be out there against the bills.

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So that can make a big difference.

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Yeah, it I'm I'm worried because the, you know, they're outside linebackers that tend

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to rush from the edges, Derek Hall and Boya Mafia are both. Yeah, I mean, they are the

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in the in the same tune as the the Baltimore Ravens defense that stymied the bills. It's

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the same design, which uses simulated pressure. So four player only four players are coming,

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but you don't know which four are coming. And, you know, somebody's dropping out into

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a short zone and, you know, a player that you're not expecting is coming. That has shown

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this this season to really stymie the bill's offense. And I haven't seen Joe Brady come

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up with really good Blitz beaters or pressure beaters for that. Josh Allen has also been

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pretty poor at, you know, shifting or designing his coverage or his protection aspects to

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to keep him clean in those snaps. And so that's a big concern of mine. This the defense for

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Seattle is they get they have the highest, let's see, not the highest, seventh highest

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QB pressure rate in the league, pure kind of across the board pressure rate, but they

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have the fifth lowest Blitz percentage. So they send for most of the time. It's just

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because of like I mentioned with the simulated pressure, the four that are coming are not

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always the down line men plus one one outside linebacker who's who's got his hand in the

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dirt. It might be a corner, it might be a linebacker from the center. And so there's

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some there's some difficulty there. I don't like I don't like this matchup for the bills.

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I think that especially because they use twists and stunts loads all the time, it's a constant

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shifting kind of map and battlefield in the trenches with the Seahawks and that I think

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has also shown trouble for the bill's offensive line, which the bill's offensive line is one

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of the top three units in the league in past protection. Josh Allen has been sacked the

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least of any quarterback and that's part in doing part because he's Josh Allen. And also

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because this line has been doing a really good job. The times where they haven't been

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doing a good job is when they're going in stunts and shifts. And I think that the reason

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the Seahawks D line is bad at rushing is as one unified pressure unit. And they get out

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of gaps in their run fits is because they're doing their best stunting and twisting. So

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that's why they're vulnerable to the run is because they're oftentimes not in a kind of

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uniform crush pressure straight up everyone's standing your lanes. But that's also the benefit

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they have in past rushing that will cause the bills some problems today. So yeah, I think

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that there's opportunities for the bills to run on this team. It's there's some challenges

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with the pressure looks on in the past game. And there is some, you know, general challenges

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with, you know, the Seattle defense because the outside corners are also very good. As

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you mentioned earlier, I will say one thing, target Tyrell Dodson, you know him better

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than anybody, you know where he struggles. There's reasons he was coming off the field

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on third down against, you know, opponents last year. Go after him. Can cage should absolutely

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eat Tyrell Dodson's lunch anytime that matchup is exposed.

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Well, and you're going to need it to I mean, we mentioned with a reek wall and being back

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in and lining up with Devin Witherspoon, according to NFL next gen stats JJ, they rank

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third and fifth respectively by fewest yards allowed per covered snap. This includes yak

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yards, which for the first time in Josh Allen's career, more than 50% of his total yardage

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has come from yak. This is what the Buffalo Bills and Brandon Bean have been trying to

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build with a with Josh Allen, find some playmakers that he can get the ball to and space with

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some quick easy completions and let them do a majority of the work that is happening

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this year. They just happen to be going up against an outside corner duo that really

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limits yak because of their athleticism and speed and are two of the best both on the

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top five in the league this year at limiting those types of plays. You have to expose the

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middle of the field. If this is an adult and can cave game JJ, I don't know what is and

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I feel like I've said that 37 times already in an eight week season, but this feels like

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with Dodson on the other end of things. This has to be the this has to be the concave game.

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Am I right? Am I crazy? Is this finally the concave game?

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No, you're not crazy. I also think this is a good game for Keon Coleman to take some

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of Curtis Samuels snaps in the in the slot, give him a two way release and let him work

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in the middle a little bit. He's got good chemistry or better chemistry with Josh Allen

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every week as the season goes on had his best week as a you know, best week as a all around

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NFL, Bill's rookie receiver since Sammy Watkins, you know, last week, of course, with the the

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massive kind of blow up and in yardage and should have been like 139 and a touchdown

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if you would have gotten that that other foot down, you know, clean. So I think that, you

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know, this is definitely a good week to expose the middle of the field. The Seahawks just

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traded. They traded. Who was it? They traded by no, they traded the former, the linebacker

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What's his name?

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The linebacker from Miami. Ernest. No, they got Ernest Jones from from the time. Yes,

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it was a linebacker for linebacker swap. I can't remember what it was.

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I can't remember. It doesn't matter. He's not on the team. They've got Ernest Jones

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now who just played the bills last week and was was a bright spot for the Titans defense

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in the second half, even at times that they were struggling against the bills. Ernest

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Jones wasn't the reason often he was in good using a position because he tended to, you

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know, be able to use a little bit of an upgrade in coverage from the previous linebacker.

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And then Tarrell Dotson, I think is a bit of a liability in coverage. I will say though,

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Tarrell Dotson strength when he was with the bills was always run fits and like cleaning

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up on the run and firing and shooting his gun downhill. He looks a lot lighter and quicker

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this season, but it doesn't seem to have answered the question that he probably was trying to

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solve by getting lighter and quicker. He still looks bad in coverage and he looks worse in

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the run. Yeah, absolutely. I mean, all around his

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his advanced metrics and analytics from last season have taken a huge dip. I mean, dude,

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play action. Can we get back to play action against this? You know, please. Like Josh

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under center play action. Can we hit it? He has a near perfect passer rating this season

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when the bills go to play action. The problem is they have decreased their percentage of

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overall plays by play action by more than double over the last four weeks. I don't know what's

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going on. I don't I don't know what Brady is seeing from the booth is he is calling these

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plays, but let's get Josh back under center and let's run play action because we will

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absolutely eat over the middle of the field. If that is the case,

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absolutely. And I'm I'm worried the same as I'm sure Joe Brady, if we don't see a bunch

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of play action right out the gate, it's because he's going to be very anxious about the pass

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rush and the pressure. And I think you have to just ignore that you have to just say,

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okay, like make the play action work quickly, Josh, get your head back around and do magic

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because that's going to be the way that they suck those linebackers up, especially Ernest

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Jones on a short week in a new defense. That's going to be the way that you kind of manipulate

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those linebackers and open up the middle of the field because the film I watched most

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of it was without req Wollin on the field. And my notes when I was watching the Seahawks

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this week was that the DBs are technically sound with coverage and closing click quickly

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in there from their zone reads. After they hit their landmarks, but they can miss tackles

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and take bad angles. I think that that is true as for the rest of the DBs, that's not true

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for req Wollin, he's going to close quickly and stop the yards after the catch. So, you

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know, I, I do think there's opportunities there because they they're technically sound

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they're good in space, but they do leave cushions. And so just like the bills that they have

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a similar bed, but don't break. It's the reason that every team they've gone against

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his score over 20 points. And so, you know, I think that there's opportunities. I hope

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that they don't get they're not too afraid of the pressure and having Josh turn his back

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on the defense to try play action because I agree with you. I think that is absolutely

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a cheat code against this defense.

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I mean, I, I agree with you on some of the advanced metrics on our offensive line. I

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also think a lot of that has to do the fact that Josh Allen is relatively unsacquable

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too. I think Josh, like a QB like a Justin Fields can make your offensive line metrics

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look worse by hanging onto the ball and taking sex. I think Josh elevates the offensive line

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metrics a little bit, just because he is so unsacquable. I just watch film on this offensive

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line and they are still good. And I think there's a lot of teams and fan bases that

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would trade their offensive line for ours in a heartbeat, but it is not as good as last

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year's unit. And I think that's why we're seeing less play action. I think against competent

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defensive lines and past rushes. I think we have seen this offensive line struggle a bit.

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And we've seen Spencer Brown have some of his most yo-yo type of games over the past four

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weeks where he looks stellar. Then he gets some above average competition. He doesn't

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look great. And I think that is the variance of this offensive line. And as a result, you're

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right. I think Joe Brady is afraid to have Josh put his back to the defense because he

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doesn't know week in and week out how this offensive unit is going to hold up against

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a pass rush.

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I don't have very much else to say about the, you know, Seahawks D against this Bill Zoh.

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I will say, I'm just going to throw a proper at you right away. I think this is a game

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that sees one or more special teams touchdown one, one or more over, over.5 special teams

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touchdowns. And I don't know who's going to get it, but the both teams on special teams

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have such high variance and have either achieved or given up a kick return or punt return touchdown

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this season, which are not happening at a great rate. And so I just, it's kind of goes

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back to my opening statements about the game and how weird it is an uncommon opponent,

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uncharacteristic up and down play. Both teams have, you know, hot and cold times. I just

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see this as one of those games where like something funky happens. Another kind of somebody

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else in Bill's media, maybe it was sell Capaccio described the Seahawks as a high act activity

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team, a high action team that they just have a lot of variance and a lot of huge weird plays

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happen to them and against them.

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Yeah. I mean, that can be pretty accurate, right? And it's tracks with what we're seeing

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on film and what we're seeing in the stat packages. I'm still going to go under. I,

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because I don't know how good, I don't know how I would want the bills to come out ahead

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on that prop for obvious reasons. And I just don't know how good the bill special team

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unit is at this point. And it's interesting because it is such a priority for this, this

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personnel management group and the coaching staff. I just, I don't know how good they

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are. So I'm going to, I'm going to take under, I guess, I don't know. It's a weird one, man.

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I'm going to go under just because I don't have a whole lot of confidence that the bills

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can can strike gold on that based on what I've seen in the return game so far.

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I've got a quick prep for you, JJ. And then let's get to scores here. I mentioned how

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bad the Buffalo Bills defense was on a third down. They are the 10th worst team in the

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league at getting off the field on third down. JJ, this Buffalo Bills offense is just as

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bad, if not worse. They are currently the eighth worst team in converting on third downs,

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which is a huge departure offensively from what we are used to seeing from this bill

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squad where they regularly rank is the top one or two teams when it comes to offensive

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third down conversion. JJ, their conversion rate this year is 33.8% overall, better than

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only the New England Patriots, the dolphins, the Raiders, the Titans, the Panthers, the

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Broncos, and the Browns. The Jacksonville Jaguars and Philadelphia Eagles, two messes of franchises

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and offensive units are both better in third down conversion success than the Bills are.

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JJ, is this an anomaly or is this something that we're going to see more regularly from

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the Bills? And I'm going to put it in a prop for you because I think it's hopefully an

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anomaly. The Buffalo Bills over under 39.5% on third down conversion success rate against

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the Seahawks. Over. And I think the reason I'm bullish on this is because of the Amari

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Cooper factor. I think that is a thing that he provides to this offense that they have

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not had that we saw with stuff on digs is that kind of Alpha dog a one wide receiver

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who when you just need somebody to go uncovered for seven yards and throw a competitive ball

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to and how and trust them that they're going to come away with it or break up an interception.

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I think that that's the Amari Cooper factor. I think that he provides some of that possession

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receiver acumen and quick separation acumen. And then I also think that Keon Coleman might

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have a bigger, bigger role in those types of settings because Josh Allen has tried to

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force those settings to Keon, Keon Coleman before. But I think that it was situations

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where Keon might have been against a more veteran, more skilled outside corner than

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he may get a map, get it may get matched up to with Amari Cooper present. I think with

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a whole week to kind of get integrated in the game plan a little bit more that we could

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see Amari Cooper, you know, start to fix that metric for the bills. And hopefully by the

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end of the season, we see that it was an aberration of early clunkiness with only Khalil Shakir

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being somebody who Josh Allen had connected with prior in the wide receiver room.

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Yeah, absolutely. I think from a personnel standpoint, it's a good matchup. As you mentioned,

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Seattle struggles at getting off the field on third down, they're kind of middle of the

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pack, I'd say average in the league. There's been there a number 14. But the Seahawks,

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they are flagged for a lot of penalties on defense, man, they're tied for six in the

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league. And I could see a couple of situations where the bills are gifted a few, just because

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the Seattle defense struggles with penalties this game. So, so we'll see. All right, let's

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get to final score JJ. Here's what we got. The over under the over under on this game

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is 45 points is fluctuated pretty heavily based on the injury report this week. The

390
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bills open as a three and a half point favorite that has come back down to three points, occurring

391
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to Draft King sports book, the bills still favored to win this game on the road in a

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hostile environment. Their fourth road game in five weeks JJ come on NFL schedulers makers.

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Here's what we got JJ final score. My prediction here is going to be Buffalo Bills 27 Seattle

394
00:32:54,440 --> 00:32:59,920
Seahawks 21. I believe the bills will pull this one out. I believe that they will cover

395
00:32:59,920 --> 00:33:05,320
and I believe we will just eke over the over for total points in this game because I like

396
00:33:05,320 --> 00:33:10,280
overall the Buffalo Bills match up in the middle of the field again to your point this

397
00:33:10,280 --> 00:33:15,640
is a Keon Coleman Dalton concade game. And those are both chunk yardage players. And

398
00:33:15,640 --> 00:33:19,200
I think the bills have a chance to really exploit that.

399
00:33:19,200 --> 00:33:24,600
I like it. I like it. I look all of your explanations as to how they're going to get their work

400
00:33:24,600 --> 00:33:30,240
for me. I had the bills going a little bit higher and probably pointing to the you know,

401
00:33:30,240 --> 00:33:34,280
as I was coming up with my thoughts for this match up throughout the week watching film

402
00:33:34,280 --> 00:33:38,560
and then checking out both these teams and kind of where they stand right now. I was

403
00:33:38,560 --> 00:33:43,800
thinking that the variability in the kind of like the surprise, you know, special teams

404
00:33:43,800 --> 00:33:48,080
touchdown or something like that might be might be a factor and push it a little higher.

405
00:33:48,080 --> 00:33:52,920
So I had the bills 31 Seahawks 24. I think this is going to be a nail biter. I think

406
00:33:52,920 --> 00:33:58,720
that people are going to be uncomfy for most of the fourth quarter in Bill's mafia, unfortunately.

407
00:33:58,720 --> 00:34:02,040
But I do think the bills come out ahead by a touchdown. So I think they cover and I think

408
00:34:02,040 --> 00:34:08,680
that they hit the over with, you know, 55 total points. The Seahawks, it's strange. They

409
00:34:08,680 --> 00:34:13,640
their defense has given up a lot of points this season and they tend to also score a

410
00:34:13,640 --> 00:34:17,320
lot of points, you know, I think it's over 20 every every game they've played. So I don't

411
00:34:17,320 --> 00:34:22,320
see that changing. They have the possibility of explosive plays even without DK MacGaff

412
00:34:22,320 --> 00:34:27,320
in the lineup. So I'm seeing the bills 31 Seahawks 24. I have the bills to win and I

413
00:34:27,320 --> 00:34:28,640
have them to hit the over.

414
00:34:28,640 --> 00:34:34,080
Yeah, absolutely, man. Absolutely. All right. Can't wait to watch it. Another road game,

415
00:34:34,080 --> 00:34:37,920
another hostile environment. It's going to be great for all of you listening at home,

416
00:34:37,920 --> 00:34:42,720
like, share and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. Assume to be YouTube regrettably,

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00:34:42,720 --> 00:35:08,720
Apple and Spotify and as always, Go Bills. Go Bills.

