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Welcome back to the Buffalo Bread podcast. We are here today to preview the Bill's Jets

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Monday night showdown in week six. Bill's and Jets both coming off of losses and you

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know, in a little bit of a situation where the bills looked very, very poor. The Jets

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kind of hung with it, but also got absolutely trounced. And so both teams are going to be

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hungry for a win. And you know, what you are listening audience are not going to be hungry

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for is a guest potter. We've got Jared Seidman back with us as our Jets in house experts

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to talk about everything Jets and this upcoming matchup, including the ousting of Robert Sala

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today. Jared, welcome to the pod. How are you doing?

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Nom, nom, nom, nom, nom. I am I am also hungry JJ. And just when you think you can't be

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more puzzled with an organization, they just find new ways to mystify. Very excited to

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use the two of you as my psychiatrist. I'm very looking much so forward to playing this

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role with you, Jared. It's going to be it's going to be great. Welcome. Welcome to our

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office. Take a seat on the couch. Let's get started. Before we can dig into any X's and

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O's, I do think we've got to talk about the Sala firing. For those of you listening to

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this pod, the firing just happened today. So there may be other news bits, tidbits that

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have broken about the story since the recording of this pod. But the main feature going is

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that Robert Sala was walked out by security from Jets facility today, having no idea that

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this would be his last day of work. It is becoming more commonplace, I think for head

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coaches to be let go midseason. But this one, this one really struck me as a surprise because

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of when it happened because of the timing and because of what appeared to be a pretty

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closed silo decision making loop around this decision. It seemed to be all Woody Johnson

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making this call really without the benefit of Joe Douglas's advice based on what we know

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at this point. So Jared, from your perspective, what do you think about the firing, the timing,

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and then what does this mean for the jet season moving forward?

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I'd like to start by saying that I have enough humility to not run around in circles banging

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a drum yelling I told you so when we last spoke. If you were willing to indulge me,

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I'd like to break this down into three pieces. Having just spoken off air about how we all

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worked in higher ed, one of the higher ed lessons we learn is there's three sides to

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the story. There's what party A says, there's what party B says, and then we determine what's

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the truth. Here is what I think the truth is. Okay. And here is part one. I think that

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every problem that the Mets have with the Mets, excuse me, the Mets have no problems.

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Every problem that the Jets have stems from ownership, hiring people with a great strength

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in one category and a gigantic blind spot that they tried to overcome on their own.

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Let's start with Joe Douglas. Joe Douglas, I'm hand to God mean this. Joe Douglas scouts

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better than any GM in football. I cannot believe how good his drafts have been since he have

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taken over the Jets. Joe Douglas manages signings and personnel worse than any GM in football.

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And when you put those two things together, you have an average general manager. Hassan

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Reddick is sitting somewhere laughing about today, you know, and that's Joe Douglas's

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recent attempt. He got rid of LaFleur. Or excuse me, Matt LaFleur is the head coach.

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He got rid of LaFleur's brother, who was dynamic in his role as an offensive coordinator, and

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brought in Hackett, who is really, really overly vanilla in his offense. And the Jets,

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this is a made up stat, but I believe it's true, lead the NFL in play designs that were

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made before the year 2007. That is what I believe. The Jets. So problem number one is

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lopsided skills with the GM. Problem number two, lopsided, short-sighted GM hires Robert

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Sala, a guy who made a killing as a defensive coordinator. What his boss was an offensive

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genius that basically said, I, I'm never going to look at the defense. I'm never going to

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look at the defense. You make the defense good. And that's your job. And what we're realizing

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is that this guy doesn't understand how to lead. And I actually think at some point

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in his career, he's going to get another crack at this. Cause I think he does all of the

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correct things besides teach offense, develop offensive players and managing turns out your

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head coach, be able to do those. Okay. And now here's problem free. Um, as these two

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people are on a journey to get, they realize that they're talented enough to win and that

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they're not winning and that they're going to need to take a huge risk or else they're

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both going to lose their jobs. And they fall for, I guess we'll call it the pseudo event

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marketing of Aaron Rogers. You got to bring me in and you got to bring my guy in because

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my guy knows how I like to play offense. And my guy will teach these young whippersnappers

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how to play football. In my life, I have never seen more missed routes than last weekend's

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game against the Vikings. I have never seen that in my lifetime of watching professional

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football, there were a minimum of 12 incomplete passes. After a hate over simplifying it,

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a receiver, zigging when they should have zahid. So the most recent report that I read

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when I hopped on this podcast before I hopped on this podcast was that sources familiar

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with Robert Salah's knowledge, which if you've ever had any media experience means Robert

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Salah, Robert Salah was planning on firing Nathaniel Hackett today. So what I think happened

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based on everything I just shared is Aaron Rogers figures it out. Aaron Rogers goes to

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Wooden Johnson and Rogers holds team ransom. And I believe with every part of my being

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there's going to be a movie about this like 10 to 15 years from now. And Salah was escorted

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out by security because of a heightened confrontation with Aaron Rogers. And the number one thing

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that makes me believe all this is three weeks ago, through his agent, Hasan Reddick said,

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you guys think I'm ending this holdout. I'm not no rush to be there. It's dysfunctional.

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I talk to the players, you don't. They all hate Aaron Rogers. They all think they're

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not being coached. I'm chilling. I'll pay my fine and I'll just stay healthy and I won't

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take my career. And Aaron Rogers went to his media source Pat McAfee to deny to deny those

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rumors. Hasan Reddick looks like the most honest person in the room. And you guys can

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charge me whatever hourly fee for that.

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And no, it's free today. It's free today. I truly believe that that is exactly how this

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went down. And those are the factors. JJ, I have I have lots of questions for Jared.

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I don't want to suck the oxygen out of the room, though. Do you have questions for Jared

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about this? Or do you want me to hop right in?

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Okay, I have one question because I haven't watched as much Jets football this season as

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I'm sure Jared has. What? What the actual hell is going on with Aaron Rogers? Like what

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has happened to him? What has happened to him? And is it play design? Is it Aaron not

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making the throws? What's going on?

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I want to give Aaron Rogers credit for one thing. Aaron Rogers still has like to cannon.

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Yeah. He's still out there throwing darts. What I think has happened to Aaron Rogers

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is time and I can concisely say this. The Aaron Rogers that we're seeing right now has

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changed in any way for better or for worse from the Aaron Rogers that we saw explode

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onto the scene in 2007, throwing darts to Donald Driver and Greg Jennings, right? Like

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he's the same dude. But the game has changed around him. And now he's playing on a team

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that is dead last in the league in pre snap motion is first in the league in him calling

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plays at the line of scrimmage. And he's got young wide receivers that don't play football

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like that. He's got tight ends don't play football like that. And he has two explosive

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running backs that when he gets to the line of scrimmage, he does not want to give the

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ball to you through 54 passes against the best pass defense in football.

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It's ego. This is not this is not the game that Aaron Rogers once dominated. And you

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can be as talented as you want. But if you're that stubborn and you're supposed to be leading

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the team, your players are going to see through that. And I think that's what's happening

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right. Yeah. No, I that's that's a great way to kind of wrap it and summarize that.

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I will say I think he's the same. He is the same Aaron Rogers. I definitely recognize

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the arm strength there minus the lower body. His mobility is absolutely shot. And you'd

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expect that from a 40 plus year old quarterback, right? Like his mobility is absolutely shot.

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A 40 year old quarterback recovering from an Achilles injury. And the with Moses being

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out for the extent that he's been out to like it. The the depth on the offensive line has

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been tested these past two weeks. And it's really failed that test generally over the

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season. The Jets have been good at maintaining a clean pocket for Rogers and his second reaction

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throws when he's had to move, particularly in that Patriots game. They've looked pretty

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good. But I mean, there's only so much there's only so sustainable that can be with a 40

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year old QB behind a really patchwork offensive line that is injured at this point, the bet

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that Joe Douglas made on signing some of these old injured offensive linemen thus far has

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not paid off because they've proven to be injury prone, which is what they were before

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they were signed, right? High risk, high reward. And unfortunately, it's been all risk over

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the past two weeks for this O line. Jared, I want to I want to zoom out a little bit.

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When a team fires a coach midseason, they're normally putting themselves on the market

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early saying, Hey, any possible coaching prospect, Ben Johnson, Mike Rabel, Bill Belichick,

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slow it out of Houston, who JJ and I had the the unfortunate, the unfortunate is situation

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of running into this past week. Like normally, it's an advertisement for we are we are in

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business, we will be open. If you're a prospective head coach, though, you've got an aged aging

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roster with a QB who I believe is on the last guaranteed year of this deal that he signed.

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He's only getting further advanced into the age of 40. If you're a prospective or an

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up and coming head coach candidate, outside of this is one of the only 32 opportunities

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you have had coach. Well, what is it that the jets are using to attract a new head coach

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candidate that is currently on the roster? Like what is appealing about this job at this

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stage in this state of the team? This is going to sound corny. But I think

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the thing that they're using is a Woody Johnson epiphany. Let me be a little bit more specific.

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I can only think of one other team that has a more stereotypical brand of football than

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the New York Jets and it's the Chicago Bears. The New York, the New York Jets have never

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been an offensive franchise. Joe Namath won a Super Bowl, not being very good at quarterback,

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though, though I hear his game with the ladies is very so I just I just think that what we're

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seeing here is and we can really categorize this like because you asked me to look at

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a big picture. Eric Manjean to Rex Ryan, Todd Bowles, Adam Gase, who I guess you could

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count as an offensive coach, but we're going to. I think it's an offensive coach. He was

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a coach. Yeah. When the when the jets are good, it's

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because their defense is good and their offense manages the game. Their offense has never

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been exceptional. And I think what he just saw is we can have a middle of the pack defense,

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but the fact that we can't produce offensively with the pieces we have is never going to

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win us this league. Forget about getting us deep in the playoffs. We can't win this

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league and the person that really stands out to me in all this and I'd love to be right

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about him because I like him as a coach is Brian Schottenheimer, who I think was the

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best offensive coordinator in the last 20 years of Jets football, who's now 50, who

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has still never been a head coach. I think realistically could get a crack at this team.

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But I think the epiphany Woody Johnson has is I have to bring someone in offensive minded

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who does the exact same thing that. Oh my God, I'm drawing a blink on the San Francisco

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49ers coach's name. Kyle Shanahan. There we go. Kyle Shanahan. The same thing Kyle

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Shanahan did to Robert Salah. You're I'm doing everything with offense. I need you to run

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the defense. I need to give you autonomy and I'm just going to trust you and you're going

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to get it done because that's what Jets football does. I'm responsible for cleaning up this

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other mess. You can't look at the Jets offense on paper and say to me this isn't this isn't

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a wildcourt team at least if they're being coached.

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Well, I mean the defense for sure. That's been the case for years with you. The issue

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has been the offense. Absolutely. And this is one of those areas where I think I think

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you're right to credit Douglas with like he has nailed particularly first and second round

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picks well except for the QB position. Right. Like and that is the that is what puts him

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in the category of GM's that he is which is like good but not great because he hasn't

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nailed the most important position. He's up there with like Chris Ballard in Indianapolis

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who builds a solid roster through the draft and free agency every year but has not nailed

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the most important position and as a result the team has been kind of wallowing. Right.

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So that brings me to my next question. Is Joe Douglas going to be allowed to hire the

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next head coach or are you guys because you're in an interesting position. You're only a

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game back of the AFC East lead. You guys win on Monday. You are in first place because

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of the tiebreaker with the bills in the AFC East. Like you could still make the playoffs

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this year but this feels like the beginning of a domino effect where the head coach has

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gone the guy who hired that head coach probably is gone but you're still a really competitive

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team that's fighting for a playoff spot. It feels like it's it feels weird to be in

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this place that you're at in this level of uncertainty when the squad is still really

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competitive. So my question for you is depending on how the season goes is Joe Douglas going

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to make the next head coaching hire in New York or is it going to be somebody else.

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This is a really good question and I want to see what comes out in terms of more information

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about the solid following firing excuse me in the next two weeks but I would still say

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80 20. Joe Douglas actually keeps his job fascinating. Here is my why he really has

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drafted so well and the Jets are a really unique team in that when you look at their

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young players compared to their biggest free agent acquisitions their younger players are

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all better. They're all better and what I think is going to happen here is I think the

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one thing that we don't have is access to the most powerful meeting head coach GM owner

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and the more this plays out the more I do get a sense that solid convinced solid convinced

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Douglas to sign Rodgers and there's a lot of money tied up with Rodgers. So now the Jets

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have to take different financial risks on different pieces. It's the reason why Hasan

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Redik is still holding out because he's trying to call the Jets bluff. It's the reason why

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they had to bring in off injured players and kind of give them second chances both on

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the offensive side of the ball and the defensive side of the ball. And I think he could look

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at Woody Johnson and be like listen I tried to give this head coach what it took for him

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to cook it handcuffed me and look at look at the ingredients I've brought you through

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the draft. That's my 80% why I think he gets to keep his job. But here's what I also will

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say. The only thing we haven't discussed is what happens if absolutely nothing changes

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with this Robert solid firing like what happens if the Jets really stink up for the rest of

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the season. That's the 20% where I'm like he's out. I think if the Jets finish hovering

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around 500 you know unfortunately it's two consecutive lost seasons where we're just

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talking in hypotheticals but I don't think that's on Joe Douglas we'll have to wait and

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see. I'm really interested in seeing what more details.

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Yeah it's fascinating because again the roster is good enough. Now it's all a question of

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coaching and this is a bet. Like you said if it really was a choice between Salah and

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Hackett it's a bet that the offense that I love how you put it the offense that is running

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a 2007 playbook another metric to go by motion is like the thing that all offenses do to give

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you a read on pre snap read on zone versus man versus who's on what the Jets are running

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the least amount of pre snap motion in the league this season and by a lot by a lot.

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I say something Dan to just because what you just said is really interesting. I'm not going

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to claim to know more about football than I do about the coach the sport I coach collegiate

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definitely no more about basketball than I know about football but the thing I know the

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most as a coach is organizational leadership and what does it tell you that the only other

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person on the staff with head coaching experience at the professional level doesn't even get

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mentioned when people are talking about like even the media music well who's the interim

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going to be and the subject is because it's definitely not a half kid. It's not it was

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so bad and Denver. Right. They bypass the one with head coaching experience and give

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someone with no head coaching experience and again on the side of the ball where there

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are not problems they're giving him a shot. So I mean what you just said is the thing

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that they can't escape. I think it's a foregone conclusion that hack it's out at the end of

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the year and I really think that this happened in the order it happened because Aaron Rogers

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is threatening to walk because he's a psycho.

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He's like I will I will sit the rest of this if you keep solid here because I yeah he so

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Aaron Rogers is an absolute nightmare fuel diva like to the point where it's like it's

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obscene and it's so funny to like I mean when you watch Jets games you see him with

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the side eye and like the judgment he just he does not hot he has he is the worst poker

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face in the world when a player disappoints him of anybody I've ever seen in any professional

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sport it's ridiculous like he will stare people down when they make a mistake and it's

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like what how are you gonna be the leader of a team with that level of ire and distaste

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and this is by the way you know after one of the 15 years from now Jets fall apart movie

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is gonna be all about this offseason when Robert Salah put a C on Aaron Rogers chest

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said lead this team and he said I'm gonna go to Egypt actually I hear there's really

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good darkness retreats like I it's insane and like you know I understand how the waspy

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contingent of Jets fans wants to see when Garrett Wilson gets mad at Aaron Rogers punks

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him out on the sideline and we want to be mad at Garrett Wilson oh you gotta be more disciplined

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you can't act like that in the game I don't know man I've done everything that I've been

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asked to do and my captain would literally rather do anything then lead this team he

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would rather campaign with RFK then lead this team he would rather go on Pat McAfee then

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lead this team and you know did you guys hear about the sake one Barkley thing last week

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with Dan Patrick I don't know that I'm familiar nope as football guys you will you will respect

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and appreciate this say one Barkley drops a pass Eagles end up losing a game late that

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drop pass ended up being super consequential yet a contracted appearance with the Dan Patrick

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show the next day and he shot Dan Patrick a text that was like I'm sorry to do this

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to you it's not right for me to be here you know I have to be I have to be by my team

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right now Rogers was going was an advertised guess after the firing on the Pat McAfee

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show today and the team pulled him out of it the team called a mandatory team meeting

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and pulled him out of the appearance and don't worry guys he's going on Pat McAfee tomorrow

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that's who we're dealing with well and it's you know I think that as Bill's fans we we

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recognize that because we saw it last year when he was you know everywhere in the media

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he could be trying to center stage and main character everyone about his probable return

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in an insanely fast timeline from a serious Achilles injury it just just to still be part

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of the conversation and it was I think everyone anyone who pays attention to the sport was

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like there's no way this person is going to be healthy enough to start a game of football

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in January for the Jets if they make it to the playoffs I know I was making a joke before

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when I talked about psychiatry stuff but I'm asking this to you you guys are super knowledgeable

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individuals about this sport does he not strike you as a textbook narcissist football player

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yeah no I mean I mean absolutely I mean I'm not gonna I mean I'm not in a position to

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professionally diagnose but I do think the behavior like let's compare it to the great

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divas of all time to rel Owens right of recent bills mafia memory and Minnesota Vikings memory

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Stefan Diggs these are behaviors and these are things that Rogers is doing that are normally

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detractors from team success they earn the ire of the fan base they earn the ire of the

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media market that you're in and for whatever reason Rogers seems pretty immune to this

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immune for many real criticism or or feedback around these things and I I don't know why

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he feels so Teflon when it comes to this part of it is I think he in Green Bay was genuinely

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liked by the locker room right up until the last moment right and even as recently as

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last season I mean he didn't play a snap he played sorry for snaps for you guys but like

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didn't he get some award from the players like most inspiring last year you know what

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I mean so like I think the difference is like he is generally well like the ire and the

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diva hood and all that stuff is usually outward facing and it's usually attacking people that

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are like coming at the team like his most verbal criticisms go to people that criticize

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him and criticize the team for the most part and I think I even think back to his time

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in Green Bay with the whole relax thing right like we're going to be fine like his persona

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public facing is irritating and grating but it is never focused on the people inside the

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locker room whereas the tarot tarot Owens Stefan Diggs they go after people that are

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sharing the same uniform as them and that seems to be the line of demarcation between

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a guy like Rogers getting the buy that he gets versus a guy like Diggs or Owens you

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just said something really interesting that we did not really entertain because of Aaron

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Rogers really really late MVP in Green Bay that kept him really relevant in terms of

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physical ability forget about quarterbacking like I or leadership is physical quarterbacking

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ability even when he got hurt and fell off a little bit you didn't really hair as a fan

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of the sport because you knew this guy just had this MVP year so what you just talked

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about with accountability Aaron Rogers at no point in his professional career has actually

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had to field criticism of his play he fielded the criticism on behalf of the team and his

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ability to deflect and counter and fight and stand up for his buddies I think always earned

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his locker room respect there is no defend the team me I say this way Dan the team did

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not throw 54 passes most of which were determined at the line of scrimmage the team did not

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throw three interceptions against the best past defense in football the team did not

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decide to basically audible about out of every run that was called Aaron did and you know

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I hate saying it this way but like the mighty have fallen yeah that's that's great that

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is that is a great I think closing statement about this particular quarterback of the New

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Jersey Jets we we should pivot now to talk a little bit about the X's and O's of this

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upcoming matchup between those jets and the Buffalo Bills as I mentioned on the show open

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we are both teams coming off of disappointing losses you know the bills to Houston on Sunday

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at one and then the Jets on Sunday morning in Tottenham Stadium in London to the Sam

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Darnell led Minnesota Vikings what was that like as a Jets fan to watch Pam Darnell dice

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up your team after his you know unceremonious exit having been a selection of the New York

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Jets awesome and I mean that's yeah you your vote for the player you you were rooting for

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Sam yeah and I what young quarterback has gotten a fair shake for this team literally

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since I've been in the high school right so good exactly revenge I like literally if I

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had the ability to exclusively schedule the Broncos Seahawks and Vikings to play this

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year's Jets team oh yeah that's great um but you know the the only other thing I'll say

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concisely is the Jets from an X's and O's perspective are predictable humble side and

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I think they've faced a coaching staff that really has their act together and knew what

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they wanted to pick on specifically I think somebody in it in a you know a scouting room

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on a Tuesday morning in Minneapolis said I think we could get Aaron Rodgers to check

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out of all of his run plays and I think we can get him to throw the ball at the middle

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and I think we can push him and like really cause chaos and that guy probably earned a

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raise right yeah so good for you well I mean you mentioned Nathaniel Hackett's whole scheme

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design is from 2007 it's worth noting that Nathaniel Hackett was the bill's OC around

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2007 and at that time was also terrible and also his greatest claim to fame was that he's

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the son of a state championship winning high school football coach which is the level of

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depth and complexity of the offense that he's currently running in the NFL.

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I've never seen him this is gonna sound so deeply offensive and I don't mean it but I've

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never seen him speak in a full sentence to Aaron Rodgers like whenever they show him

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on the sidelines he's you could tell he's just like what do you think Aaron and Aaron says

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whatever he wants and he goes sounds good.

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Let's do it bucko like let's do I mean that's the that is the hallmark though of a personality

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type like Aaron Rodgers they need to constantly feel like the smartest person in the room

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and have a platform to do that and despite Rodgers media persona his biggest platform

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of validation is being a QB so having an this is why him and LaFleur didn't get along it's

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because LaFleur actually had a vision for what he wanted the offense to be and it was

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at odds with what Rodgers thought it should be Hackett does not provide that level of

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intellectual conflict for Rodgers and that's why Rodgers likes to keep him around all the

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time right like a good phrase like he just doesn't challenge Rodgers in a way that makes

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him uncomfortable right like that is the that is the warm blanket of narcissism is to surround

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yourself with people that will always tell you you're right and that's just what Rodgers

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is.

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How's that for X's nose right back right back to Freud's drawing board JJ.

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Yeah no yeah we wanted to talk play design and where we got to was the again the interplay

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of personalities.

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That's okay but we can we can bring it back to play design so let's talk about that because

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this is a you know this is such a fascinating matchup and Jared I will say that like for

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all of the Josh Allen is the Dolphins daddy talk there has been over the last few years

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the Jets have really made life hell for Allen particularly when he tries to pass the ball

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last year when Brady took over in that in the second game that the Jets and Bills played

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in Buffalo it really focused on hammering the weakness that you guys were displaying

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that year in the run D and really generated a lot of a lot of EPA per play and generated

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a lot of success through the run game that door is still open I would say heading into

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Monday to exploit the Jets on the run game but you guys are a little bit more effective

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at this point than you were last year your DVO DVO a numbers against the run are about

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average middle of the pack whereas last year at this time they were bottom third your efficiency

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numbers against the run defensively like you're a top 10 unit right and the bills offense

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is not rushing at a particularly efficient rate this year they're still in the top 10

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but this is a more I think this is a more favorable matchup for the Jets defense than

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it was last season and for me I think this is the place where I want to start the conversation

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if over the last two weeks the Texans and the Ravens have shown if you can disrupt the first

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thing Joe Brady wants to do which is run the ball with efficacy to keep the team on schedule

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he does not have a scheme answer in the passing game to counter that so Jared what is your

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confidence level have it heading into this game that the Jets will be able to stop James

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Cook and this Buffalo Bills offensive line from running the ball like they did last season

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in the second game let me tell you that I have never been less confident in the Jets

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in my entire life so I like if they compete they compete I do not expect them to win this

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game we start there but to answer your more specific question about stopping the run I

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think that Houston and I'm sure you guys alluded to this gave the rest of the league a bit

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of a blueprint about stopping the bills and I think another problem with X the nose and

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personnels that the bills is going to are going to face is I don't know if they're trying

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to shoehorn Keon Coleman into that like you're our guy when the going gets tough we're looking

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at you but there were a lot of blunders I mean he got hit in the head with the football

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on a slant route that wasn't very good and there were across the board it kind of looked

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like the fourth quarter of that game was an audition to see who was going to be the play

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making receiver for the bills and there was tons of miscommunications and tons of bad

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spots so I think if you're the Jets we build on what you just talked about Dan is you're

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going to stuff the run you're going to limit them to what I would describe as your West

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Coast style gains okay like I'll deal with the check down I'll deal with a you know two

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headed dragon tight ed reception you know and from there we are just going to make them

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try to make a big play down the field and when they struggle to do it because we're

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going to bring pressure and they struggle to run we're just going to deal with them

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kicking a field goal and we're going to hope we can make it and like that's going to be

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the kind of game is a 2013 kind of game I think is the Jets strategy I think in order

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to use James Cook the way you're capable of don't you kind of get the impression they

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have to check down not maybe they can check down but like design short yardage pass to

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him more and just give him a chance to break something is that the feeling you get after

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the Houston game I mean it's pretty much I was so disappointed in the Houston game that

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they didn't do that more because James Cook this season and even last season in any pass

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he catches within five to ten yards of the line of scrimmage almost guaranteed he's going

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to break the first tackle every single time it's like this is like high praise for James

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Cook I don't think he's there he's got a long career left in front of him to kind of get

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this sort of level it reminded me of watching Lydani and Tomlinson with the Chargers every

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single time Philip Rivers through him a short pass there was always somebody in coverage

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nearby he always shook him almost immediately weather through his quicks you know stutter

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step something like that or just by like being too slippery for an arm tackle it was all you

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know that's pretty much automatic and I was disappointed I think that the bills dominance

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in the first three weeks of the season or at least two of the three weeks of the first

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you know their wins of the season was largely because Josh Allen was just taking profits

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in the short area he was not throwing 20 air or air yards down the field he was not trying

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to push the ball outside the numbers and then when the Ravens and the Houston Texans stuff

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the middle of the field added more players to the box to shut down the run there was

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no the Joe Brady and Josh Allen have not come up with an answer yet for that and that's

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the answer that they've needed to come up with all I mean we talked about it in the

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offseason JJ we talked about after that KC game the Brady scheme seems designed to suck

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in defenses and make them condensed so that you can do allegedly what your rifle armed

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alien QB is best at doing which is taking shots downfield I think the QB can still do that

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though I'd love to put just a little bit more touch on some of these deep passes as opposed

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to throwing the 50 yard frozen rope down the field but that's neither here nor there then

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I'm this podcast we say piss missiles sorry piss missiles yes 50 year missiles yeah I had

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Jared's relieved he's like because I was thinking piss missile but I heard frozen rope so what's

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the attic I could have said it five times when you were talking about Aaron Rangers that's

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right so yeah so that will feel free to revisit it when we talk about the Jets offense but

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um but so but it doesn't seem like Brady and this was his issue in Carolina knows how to

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specifically scheme for players he knows how to scheme concepts and you know this everybody

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eats mantra that the bills have been rolling out it feels more like a safety word for Joe

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Brady because he doesn't know how to necessarily scheme for individual guys like I rewatched

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a lot of that Houston game because I'm a masochist but because I care about preparing for this

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podcast and you had MVS running those curl routes and those hook routes that Keon Coleman

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is so adept and so skilled at running and he is such a he's a bigger body than MVS it's

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harder for a guy like Derek Stingley or Lassiter to plow through Keon to get to the ball on

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one of those routes that it is an MVS so like the concepts are there but Brady doesn't seem

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to have figured out what the strength of each of the guys he has in this past catch a room

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are and to your point Jared if the if the Jets are able to shut down the run I don't

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know that Brady has a scheme specific answer yet for how he wants to counter that because

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we haven't seen it over the last two weeks and honestly you can make an argument that

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we didn't see it in the Aero Zona game which was the first game of the season where the

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bills were really challenged that was all just about Josh Allen making plays and not

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the scheme alleviating any of the stress on Allen it seems like if the bills aren't going

399
00:38:34,280 --> 00:38:39,200
to run it and they're not going to stay on schedule Brady doesn't know how to go off

400
00:38:39,200 --> 00:38:45,040
of his game sequence script and he doesn't know how to put specific guys in positions

401
00:38:45,040 --> 00:38:48,440
to capitalize on their strengths and I think that's going to be a real problem against

402
00:38:48,440 --> 00:38:55,080
this Jets defense that is still despite all of my criticisms preseason about the Hassan

403
00:38:55,080 --> 00:38:59,400
Reddick thing and not having Jermaine Johnson this is still a unit that is number eight

404
00:38:59,400 --> 00:39:04,600
in the league in generating QB pressure and I think number four in total sacks this season

405
00:39:04,600 --> 00:39:10,440
as well so if you stop the run and you force Josh and a whole not a ball for three seconds

406
00:39:10,440 --> 00:39:14,360
I mean this offensive line is not going to hold up against that that Jets pass rush like

407
00:39:14,360 --> 00:39:19,920
the answer has to be Brady realizing the talent that he's got in the room and who's good at

408
00:39:19,920 --> 00:39:25,160
what and then putting those guys into position to do the thing they do the best not do what

409
00:39:25,160 --> 00:39:26,840
everybody else is doing.

410
00:39:26,840 --> 00:39:31,360
I want to ask the two of you question this is important to me not only as a post modern

411
00:39:31,360 --> 00:39:38,920
Jets fan but also as someone that's interested in the outcome of this in the event that the

412
00:39:38,920 --> 00:39:43,760
bills do struggle continuously to define rules especially in the receivers room where it's

413
00:39:43,760 --> 00:39:49,680
the most missing do the Jets strike either of you as disciplined enough to capitalize

414
00:39:49,680 --> 00:39:58,760
on it not talented enough discipline and what I specifically mean is if Josh Allen is running

415
00:39:58,760 --> 00:40:05,400
outside the pocket with time who wins that battle Josh Allen or the Jets I'm very intrigued

416
00:40:05,400 --> 00:40:14,640
Oh so I will say I'll say my answer in two parts one is should the should the player

417
00:40:14,640 --> 00:40:19,800
Josh Allen is targeting in this scenario you've hypothetically built should the player that

418
00:40:19,800 --> 00:40:25,560
he's targeting with that throw be anyone other than sauce Gardner I think that Josh Allen

419
00:40:25,560 --> 00:40:33,520
wins the snap if I mean Reed is pretty good too so maybe other than those two individuals

420
00:40:33,520 --> 00:40:38,800
I think that Josh Allen was the snap if it is either one of those two it is going to

421
00:40:38,800 --> 00:40:44,920
be a pass interference penalty on the Jets because of the way that they play magic word

422
00:40:44,920 --> 00:40:48,760
yeah the way that they play and I do think I think it's real I think that there's a

423
00:40:48,760 --> 00:40:54,000
lot of you know NFL fan conspiracy stuff out there about the chiefs and you know that

424
00:40:54,000 --> 00:40:58,040
there was one Brady was in the league and I do think that there's some preferential treatment

425
00:40:58,040 --> 00:41:03,080
that the refs give superstars and the top teams I think that that's real I think you can prove

426
00:41:03,080 --> 00:41:09,080
it just by looking at the data around how many interceptions Patrick Mahomes has had

427
00:41:09,080 --> 00:41:13,880
turned over by pass interference penalties versus every single other quarterback in the

428
00:41:13,880 --> 00:41:21,920
NFL over his entire career it is profound and so with be that you know all of that said

429
00:41:21,920 --> 00:41:28,240
I think that the Minnesota Vikings as the new NFL darlings got way more favorable passenger

430
00:41:28,240 --> 00:41:34,600
feeling PI calls against Jets defenders than most have seen because sauce Gardner is the

431
00:41:34,600 --> 00:41:40,800
like the handsiest quarterback in the league Dan's not a fan every play every play every

432
00:41:40,800 --> 00:41:45,600
play just think it's every play and here's the thing alright and and you said the magic

433
00:41:45,600 --> 00:41:51,320
word sauce Gardner overrated so now I have to go on my rant right like I hear all the

434
00:41:51,320 --> 00:41:56,200
time from people in the media well there's there's defensive holding on every pass play

435
00:41:56,200 --> 00:42:01,680
no guys are hand checking guys are fighting for position the difference with sauces sauce

436
00:42:01,680 --> 00:42:09,400
has a a preponderance of going high on guys like shoulder pads and above and to me that's

437
00:42:09,400 --> 00:42:14,520
what makes the style of play reckless and that's what makes a style of play overrated

438
00:42:14,520 --> 00:42:19,680
is that he is willing to he doesn't when he loses hand check and he loses positionality

439
00:42:19,680 --> 00:42:24,000
he goes immediately above the shoulder pads and to me that's just not above board and

440
00:42:24,000 --> 00:42:27,800
that's why I think he's overrated like I would say that he's a dirty player I would even

441
00:42:27,800 --> 00:42:33,200
add that to it and this is where I struggle with the fantasy football vacation of football

442
00:42:33,200 --> 00:42:39,160
understanding because like there's a pretty high bar for shut down corners in recent memory

443
00:42:39,160 --> 00:42:46,440
in New York Daryl Rivas is the best individual defensive player I've seen live and the reason

444
00:42:46,440 --> 00:42:54,840
why you knew that is you never threw to him like the the the idea that teams are willing

445
00:42:54,840 --> 00:42:58,880
to go at him because they're confident they can draw a penalty or they're confident that

446
00:42:58,880 --> 00:43:05,240
somebody could punk him is enough of an indication to me that he's not we're not at that level

447
00:43:05,240 --> 00:43:13,640
with him I think he has I don't want my words to come back to bite me but I guess the way

448
00:43:13,640 --> 00:43:22,640
I would say it is I am less confident in his decision making abilities especially when improvising

449
00:43:22,640 --> 00:43:28,400
than you guys appear to be I understand why he gets the credit he gets like I think Josh

450
00:43:28,400 --> 00:43:35,600
Allen can mess with him that doesn't mean that doesn't mean Josh Allen's head will be in

451
00:43:35,600 --> 00:43:39,000
the right place because he also struggles to make a decision I was just gonna say don't

452
00:43:39,000 --> 00:43:43,040
you can get we all know Josh Allen can do that you can do miraculous things when the

453
00:43:43,040 --> 00:43:50,760
chips are down he also can try to lateral lateral a ball like he's playing Tecmo Super Bowl

454
00:43:50,760 --> 00:43:57,760
or NCAA football 15 you know on a third and 19 while he's 16 yards away from the first

455
00:43:57,760 --> 00:44:02,400
down marker like that's there's there's it is a double-edged sword we have to play the

456
00:44:02,400 --> 00:44:07,800
light in the dark with Josh Allen I do think you're right about the Josh Allen we saw early

457
00:44:07,800 --> 00:44:13,600
in the season and different times especially in the play out like playoff Josh Allen can

458
00:44:13,600 --> 00:44:19,240
100% manipulate a safety or corner with his eyes to bring somebody open just behind their

459
00:44:19,240 --> 00:44:24,560
coverage dump it over for a 40 yard game I mean that's a pretty regular play that bills

460
00:44:24,560 --> 00:44:32,280
fans can experience the question is how the game is going at the time that that play happens

461
00:44:32,280 --> 00:44:36,620
is going to determine whether he does that or throws a cross body interception that's

462
00:44:36,620 --> 00:44:42,840
returned for a touchdown right like because like a guy that watched the Texans yeah or

463
00:44:42,840 --> 00:44:47,440
like a guy who's watched every snap in Josh Allen's career if he is in sugar high Josh

464
00:44:47,440 --> 00:44:53,240
mode it is 100% gonna be a turnover and a messy one or he's gonna take some hit that's just

465
00:44:53,240 --> 00:44:59,680
absolutely horrific to look at and would literally sideline any mortal quarterback for the rest

466
00:44:59,680 --> 00:45:03,880
of his career mate but Josh Allen will shake it off could take some smelling salts and

467
00:45:03,880 --> 00:45:09,400
be back in yeah I want to I want to go back to sauce real quick and I want to tie it into

468
00:45:09,400 --> 00:45:17,440
your point JJ about Josh Allen I think defensive linemen have a greater impact on the success

469
00:45:17,440 --> 00:45:24,240
rate of Josh Allen's game than I think individual DB's do I actually think I actually think

470
00:45:24,240 --> 00:45:30,120
Josh is post snap processing has gotten a lot better over the years the problem is like

471
00:45:30,120 --> 00:45:36,160
does he have enough time or our guys getting separation and that magical 2.5 second window

472
00:45:36,160 --> 00:45:41,280
where we know Josh is absolutely lethal are they getting that separation and hitting the

473
00:45:41,280 --> 00:45:47,000
routes on time in order to let him do that and listen I I think Josh has made a habit

474
00:45:47,000 --> 00:45:53,800
of picking on certain DB's Jalen Ramsey comes to mind like Josh has an amazing pass rating

475
00:45:53,800 --> 00:46:01,280
against him I don't think sauce is going to be a no fly zone in this game and I got a

476
00:46:01,280 --> 00:46:07,880
couple of numbers to tell you why one his QB rating allowed when nearest defender is a

477
00:46:07,880 --> 00:46:15,640
118 for context league average is about a hundred so he is allowing above average pass

478
00:46:15,640 --> 00:46:24,920
ratings catch rate over expected is 8.5% QB's are completing nearly 70% of their past attempts

479
00:46:24,920 --> 00:46:29,720
when they go near sauce and he's already allowed to touchdown this season not to mention that

480
00:46:29,720 --> 00:46:36,520
he is generating one of the lowest tight window throw percentages on the entire in the entire

481
00:46:36,520 --> 00:46:44,920
just secondary at just under 30% like I mean these are pretty average numbers for a DB who

482
00:46:44,920 --> 00:46:51,800
is supposed to be elite and I think Josh is going to be feel fine testing sauce as long

483
00:46:51,800 --> 00:46:57,080
as it's a Khalil Shakir he's matched up on or adult and concade that he's matched up on

484
00:46:57,080 --> 00:47:01,920
I do think sauce is skilled enough to shut down a Mack Hollins I think he presents a

485
00:47:01,920 --> 00:47:06,880
problem for a Keon Coleman but I think if Josh sees the right matchup there is no reason

486
00:47:06,880 --> 00:47:12,160
why you wouldn't go after sauce like he would go after a Jalen Ramsey you know what I mean

487
00:47:12,160 --> 00:47:18,080
so so I think there is a benefit there I want to segue real quick here if you guys are good

488
00:47:18,080 --> 00:47:22,480
with it to talking about the other side of the ball those defense against this Jets offense

489
00:47:22,480 --> 00:47:28,640
and I mentioned that 2.5 second mark that is a number I think that is going to ring very very

490
00:47:28,640 --> 00:47:35,200
important for both of these QB's so heading into this game the metrics are so interesting

491
00:47:35,200 --> 00:47:44,120
Josh right now amongst all qualified passers on quick passes so 2.5 seconds or under is

492
00:47:44,120 --> 00:47:50,920
currently leading the league in EPA per dropback when he gets his throughout in 2.5 seconds Aaron

493
00:47:50,920 --> 00:47:59,480
Rogers is completing the fourth highest percentage of passes in the league this year of passes that

494
00:47:59,480 --> 00:48:06,600
are 2.5 seconds or under these are two QB's who we think of like to hit the deep ball and like

495
00:48:06,600 --> 00:48:12,160
to look for their guy downfield but are at their best when they get it out quickly so for Aaron

496
00:48:12,160 --> 00:48:18,560
Rogers what are the bills need to do and I know the answer is probably feels easy and it's pressure

497
00:48:18,560 --> 00:48:23,680
him but what are the bills really need to do to make Rogers hang on to the ball and question his

498
00:48:23,680 --> 00:48:29,120
first and second reaction throws and I'll put it out to either of you what do you guys think I'm

499
00:48:29,120 --> 00:48:33,040
actually really interested in hearing JJ's take first because it's going to be more bills oriented

500
00:48:33,040 --> 00:48:39,320
because I know what I would do yeah I'm interested so I'll say this I'll say that from a bills

501
00:48:39,320 --> 00:48:47,440
perspective I don't know that you get a better outside corner tandem than Christian Benford and

502
00:48:47,440 --> 00:48:52,880
Russell Douglas for the Buffalo Bills right now in the game last week against Houston they had they

503
00:48:52,880 --> 00:48:59,400
gave up one huge touchdown in Niko Collins and that was all at the fault of the rookie safety Cole

504
00:48:59,400 --> 00:49:05,680
Bishop who's likely to start again this this this week if Taylor Rapp doesn't clear concussion

505
00:49:05,680 --> 00:49:12,760
protocol and so and then on top of that you know digs was targeted eight times and caught four of

506
00:49:12,760 --> 00:49:18,560
those balls all four of his catches were against Cam Lewis in the slot they didn't even try to hit

507
00:49:18,560 --> 00:49:23,600
digs or tank Dell against Russell Douglas or Christian Benford in coverage though they're

508
00:49:23,600 --> 00:49:28,840
playing outrageously good outside coverage they're vulnerable the bills have been vulnerable in the

509
00:49:28,840 --> 00:49:34,840
middle of field and when the Christian Benford or Russell Douglas are the closest defender they tend

510
00:49:34,840 --> 00:49:40,200
to shut things down it's really the problem of the bills missing Matt Milano missing Trell Bernard

511
00:49:40,200 --> 00:49:46,920
for a few games missing Taryn Johnson and all pro slot corner who may be back for this game and so

512
00:49:46,920 --> 00:49:53,600
for me when I'm looking at this the way that the bills can shut down his first or second reaction

513
00:49:53,600 --> 00:50:00,720
throw is to make sure that they get extra attention to Garrett Wilson and Alan Lazard period like if

514
00:50:00,720 --> 00:50:08,400
they can just shade a safety towards Garrett Wilson every play they are going to to go to Aaron

515
00:50:08,400 --> 00:50:14,280
Rogers into check downs and potentially making some risky throws because he I mean he targeted

516
00:50:14,280 --> 00:50:19,680
Garrett Wilson like what 2018 times something it was ridiculous he was the most targeted receiver in

517
00:50:19,680 --> 00:50:26,560
the NFL last week yes yeah so I'm actually I want to combine your two things because I think you

518
00:50:26,560 --> 00:50:33,720
both said really interesting things and I think JJ's completely spot your comment about Aaron

519
00:50:33,720 --> 00:50:39,960
Rogers aptitude in short yard situations is the thing I really want to zoom in um Derrick

520
00:50:39,960 --> 00:50:47,160
Wilson's receptions while you know fantastic if you own him in a PPR league we're nothing burgers

521
00:50:47,160 --> 00:50:53,680
you know even when he gets cheap touchdowns he's catching the ball for five yards almost almost

522
00:50:53,680 --> 00:50:58,680
every time and when he asked to actually rely on a routry option or an adjustment at the line of

523
00:50:58,680 --> 00:51:04,680
scrimmage there's a miscommunication on almost every play so I think that you know it's hard for me

524
00:51:04,680 --> 00:51:09,520
to say is zone the answer is man the answer because that is when you're playing into the hands of

525
00:51:09,520 --> 00:51:16,320
regardless of how I feel about Aaron Rogers the person a you know a unanimous first bout

526
00:51:16,320 --> 00:51:24,640
offing the flip though is I think if we bunch up five to ten yard stuff and the only five yard

527
00:51:24,640 --> 00:51:30,240
option we allow is something that could potentially be five yards on a check down but he catches the

528
00:51:30,240 --> 00:51:37,440
ball behind the line like JJ's talking about or a like one step drop quick sling which is his

529
00:51:37,440 --> 00:51:43,360
bread and butter right now title is Arles catch the ball and we're gonna treat it like it's a run

530
00:51:43,360 --> 00:51:49,040
play and we're gonna stop you for runs four yards or less I think that's your strategy because then

531
00:51:49,040 --> 00:51:54,800
what happens is he gets impatient he tries to beat you deep and the jets have not illustrated forget

532
00:51:54,800 --> 00:52:01,680
about Aaron Rogers arm all of his deep balls never end up within 10 yards of receiver because

533
00:52:01,680 --> 00:52:06,720
someone makes a mistake so force them to do to prove that they can do that without making a

534
00:52:06,720 --> 00:52:14,080
mistake I don't think they can I what is your confidence level JJ that the bills past rush is

535
00:52:14,080 --> 00:52:21,760
actually gonna create a problem for for Aaron Rogers the bills right now are the 17th team when

536
00:52:21,760 --> 00:52:29,200
it comes to pressure rate which is extraordinarily low Babbage dialed up some blitzes against CJ

537
00:52:29,200 --> 00:52:35,520
Stroud and which we talked about the Houston give them were wildly ineffective Rogers tends to be

538
00:52:35,520 --> 00:52:41,360
better than average against the blitz so is the solution hope that your organic four man rush

539
00:52:41,360 --> 00:52:47,760
is gonna get to Rogers or do we see Babbage dial is something a little bit more exotic to try to

540
00:52:47,760 --> 00:52:53,600
fool Rogers into making some mistakes questioning his read or second or holding onto the ball

541
00:52:53,600 --> 00:53:00,640
because I'll be honest with you I don't think Greg Russo KC to hill at Oliver if he plays in this

542
00:53:00,640 --> 00:53:06,560
game like I just don't think I've seen enough against quality offensive lines from this defensive

543
00:53:06,560 --> 00:53:12,800
line have any confidence that they're gonna get pressure I yeah I mean I'm with you and and being

544
00:53:12,800 --> 00:53:17,200
really underwhelmed by the defensive line and even all the way back to the games that the

545
00:53:17,200 --> 00:53:22,720
bills were winning and the defensive line look good largely that was because the defensive line

546
00:53:22,720 --> 00:53:28,880
could pin their ears back and not have to stay disciplined and run defense it with Braylon Allen

547
00:53:28,880 --> 00:53:34,160
and Breece Hall like if this game is close throughout which I think we all sort of think it might be

548
00:53:35,440 --> 00:53:40,800
there is no way that those those four down linemen for the bills no matter what rotation is in at

549
00:53:40,800 --> 00:53:46,800
that time are going to be able to just keep pass only because that would that was it like the the

550
00:53:46,800 --> 00:53:52,400
best games we've seen from Von Miller Greg so Von Miller's of course suspended right now but

551
00:53:52,400 --> 00:53:58,800
Greg Russo KC to hill with a good rush Javon Solomon the rookie with a good rush most

552
00:53:58,800 --> 00:54:04,000
of those situations were like long and late downs when the bills were ahead by two or more scores

553
00:54:04,000 --> 00:54:10,160
where the team absolutely they knew that the opponent was going to pass that being the only

554
00:54:10,160 --> 00:54:14,880
time that the bills pass rush shows up tells me that the only way they're going to affect Aaron

555
00:54:14,880 --> 00:54:22,480
Rogers is delayed delayed pressure with Terrell Bernard because I think that even though you're

556
00:54:22,480 --> 00:54:28,720
sacrificing your best coverage linebacker he's also incredibly efficient when rushing and especially

557
00:54:28,720 --> 00:54:35,360
on delayed kind of where you just let him choose a gap in the middle three gaps to shoot one second

558
00:54:35,360 --> 00:54:40,560
after the snap and hope that Aaron Rodgers you know the coverage as I mentioned before is smudding

559
00:54:40,560 --> 00:54:45,200
things up enough that he can't get that first read because that's one way I think that they can do it

560
00:54:46,160 --> 00:54:54,240
but I agree I mean in the Houston kind of recap Bobby Badges Babbage's Blitz's were not effective

561
00:54:54,240 --> 00:54:59,360
against CJ Stroud and I think that Aaron Rodgers is a better player at replacing the Blitz with

562
00:54:59,360 --> 00:55:05,760
the ball than CJ Stroud is in this point in his young career and so but I did see some vulnerability

563
00:55:05,760 --> 00:55:14,720
when I rewatched the Minnesota and New York game from last weekend Aaron Rodgers was not great at

564
00:55:14,720 --> 00:55:21,360
shifting protections and there were a few times that free rushers particularly nickel Blitz's

565
00:55:21,360 --> 00:55:25,680
were just straight on top of him like and that's something that you I don't know what's happening

566
00:55:25,680 --> 00:55:29,760
I don't know if that's communication issue with the line I don't know if that's a communication

567
00:55:29,760 --> 00:55:34,080
issue with the wide receivers I know that that was something that happened to Josh Allen too

568
00:55:34,080 --> 00:55:39,120
is that there were players who should have been hot reads with the blitz free blitz are coming

569
00:55:39,120 --> 00:55:43,840
who didn't even look for the ball in the bills game it's same thing happened with the Jets and so

570
00:55:43,840 --> 00:55:49,120
that's you know if the bills are looking at that if Bobby Babbage is paying attention you should see

571
00:55:49,120 --> 00:55:53,840
you know who who am I going to target and hope there's a communication issue because that could be

572
00:55:53,840 --> 00:55:59,680
huge impactful play and Aaron Rodgers tends to play worse after he's gotten a little bit dirty

573
00:55:59,680 --> 00:56:06,400
in the pocket and taken some hits because I mean age you know injuries etc yeah absolutely last

574
00:56:06,400 --> 00:56:11,360
question and then I want to move on to predictions sure to go wrong for this do we think the Jets

575
00:56:11,360 --> 00:56:16,560
have a get right game with regard to their rushing attack against the bills the bills rushing defense

576
00:56:16,560 --> 00:56:25,520
is absolutely atrocious but by metrics not talent the rushing efficiency rating of the Jets has been

577
00:56:25,520 --> 00:56:31,360
somehow worse so the bills are ranked 22nd in rushing defense this year in rushing defense

578
00:56:31,360 --> 00:56:38,080
efficiency and they're ranked 24th in overall DVOA the Jets are 28th in rushing rushing offense

579
00:56:38,080 --> 00:56:47,360
efficiency and 27th in offensive rushing DVOA like I hear Breece Hall I hear Braylon Allen I hear

580
00:56:47,360 --> 00:56:53,440
a Nate Hackett scheme which he spent time with the floor if he can do anything it's scheme up a run

581
00:56:53,440 --> 00:56:58,000
game but this run game has been non-existent for the Jets particularly over the last few weeks

582
00:56:58,720 --> 00:57:05,200
is this a get right game for that because it feels like the key to to the key to sort of

583
00:57:05,200 --> 00:57:10,400
limiting the bills defense and their ability to rattle Rodgers is to simply let him hand the ball

584
00:57:10,400 --> 00:57:15,920
off and attack the bills where they're the weakest do we think offensive coordinator Aaron Rodgers

585
00:57:15,920 --> 00:57:20,880
will allow himself to be taken out of the game early in that way and do we think he'll hand it off

586
00:57:20,880 --> 00:57:25,040
or is he gonna want this to be the Rodgers show now that Sal is gone I'm really happy you asked

587
00:57:25,040 --> 00:57:30,160
this question the way you asked it because I have this daydream sequence where O'Reach has grabbed

588
00:57:30,160 --> 00:57:35,440
Nathaniel Hackett by the collar and said to him if Breece Hall does not have 25 touches by the end

589
00:57:35,440 --> 00:57:42,400
of the fourth quarter you're out of the job and the Jets were competitive last season they weren't

590
00:57:42,400 --> 00:57:48,160
good enough to make the playoffs but they they won more games than some because of the amount of

591
00:57:48,160 --> 00:57:53,280
touches they were able to get to Breece Hall they have more depth at that position now because they

592
00:57:53,280 --> 00:58:01,200
stole it and what we're looking at to me is the ultimate Aaron Rodgers I just surrendered the

593
00:58:01,200 --> 00:58:08,160
whole franchise to you can you set your ego aside for one week and I don't think you can do it which

594
00:58:08,160 --> 00:58:13,200
is why I think that the bills are going to win the game fascinating oh my god that's a great segue

595
00:58:13,200 --> 00:58:18,400
into prediction sure to go wrong let's hit it all right let me tell you guys where we're at here

596
00:58:18,400 --> 00:58:24,560
so this line opened at bills favored by two and a half it is down to two which means that there is

597
00:58:24,560 --> 00:58:29,840
some some thought here that the Jets might pull this out especially after the solid firing over

598
00:58:29,840 --> 00:58:36,240
under on this game is 41 points that is the lowest over under we have seen as of yet for total

599
00:58:36,240 --> 00:58:42,480
points scored for a bills game this season so the bills are slight favorites heading into this but

600
00:58:42,480 --> 00:58:47,520
it doesn't feel like it doesn't feel like either team should be a favorite at this point

601
00:58:47,520 --> 00:58:53,920
at this point with the way they're playing into this but a fce supremacy is on the line so Jared

602
00:58:53,920 --> 00:58:57,920
being in our guest host spot let's start with you what is your final prediction for the score of

603
00:58:57,920 --> 00:59:02,960
this game I think the bills are going to win by three touchdowns damn oh I don't think they're

604
00:59:02,960 --> 00:59:09,520
going to score three touchdowns all right let's let's hear it nothing like nothing like two people

605
00:59:09,520 --> 00:59:14,880
that are invested in voting against their respected factions this is why you fit so well on the

606
00:59:14,880 --> 00:59:19,680
lot here you're viable realistivity with your team is amazing this is not

607
00:59:21,840 --> 00:59:31,920
the same problem that the Jets had but with Robert solid coaching them has not been resolved

608
00:59:31,920 --> 00:59:40,160
let's really make sure we have this down they fired the defensive guy who has a good defense

609
00:59:40,160 --> 00:59:44,720
because the offense is not performing and the offensive guy is still there

610
00:59:47,440 --> 00:59:53,680
so what happens to the Jets they either give up a couple big plays early or they're on the field

611
00:59:53,680 --> 00:59:58,400
for three times longer than they want to be defensively and they give up a couple touchdowns

612
00:59:59,120 --> 01:00:06,080
the last time I saw the bills angry after a bad performance was dunk was uh excuse not Douglas

613
01:00:06,080 --> 01:00:12,080
was Brady's first game as offensive coordinator and they drilled the Jets into the ground I was

614
01:00:12,080 --> 01:00:18,400
there in person to watch the public burial it was so I think we're looking at a very similar

615
01:00:18,400 --> 01:00:23,600
situation I do not think this is not the Jets locker room is not a locker room that's cohesive

616
01:00:23,600 --> 01:00:28,320
they're not a locker room that's together this whole working rally around the new coach doesn't

617
01:00:28,320 --> 01:00:35,680
work as well when the team's not invested and until the Jets can prove for multiple weeks on

618
01:00:35,680 --> 01:00:40,560
edge that they're invested in improving as a team and growing together I will not

619
01:00:41,760 --> 01:00:45,120
predict them to win a game or compete in the game

620
01:00:47,280 --> 01:00:55,040
gut my gut 30 to 13 wow all right bill's 30 burger JJ what about you

621
01:00:56,400 --> 01:01:01,440
yeah I think this uh I think that you see a couple of things here I'm gonna base my answer on

622
01:01:01,440 --> 01:01:07,440
on historical data so what we have with the historical data in Josh Allen's career is that

623
01:01:07,440 --> 01:01:13,200
he's uh pretty pretty terrible against the Jets uh for some reason another I know Sala was part

624
01:01:13,200 --> 01:01:18,480
of that and the way that they played him was was part of that but I do think that there's just

625
01:01:18,480 --> 01:01:24,560
something about it and it's it's on the road it's on Monday night um so those are factors that are

626
01:01:24,560 --> 01:01:30,160
probably gonna play against Josh Allen a little bit I do recognize your points Jared and I do agree

627
01:01:30,160 --> 01:01:36,400
that before this past week against the Houston Texans the bills were the winningest team coming

628
01:01:36,400 --> 01:01:42,400
off a loss and in Sean McDermott McDermott's whole career right like they they do not stack losses

629
01:01:43,040 --> 01:01:50,400
but seeing how inept they looked against the Texans on offense has me very worried in that

630
01:01:51,040 --> 01:01:56,560
the Baltimore Ravens set a blueprint the Houston Texans followed it to a tee and the bills didn't

631
01:01:56,560 --> 01:02:03,200
have an answer if Khalil Shakir can play I think the bills will have an answer he is a very very

632
01:02:03,200 --> 01:02:10,320
good player he is I think he is exactly what they need to open things up when nothing else is working

633
01:02:10,320 --> 01:02:15,840
and that he can separate even from very good corners so I think that that's a big component I

634
01:02:15,840 --> 01:02:22,080
think that if Taylor Rapp is playing then that's a big component component um at Oliver as well

635
01:02:22,080 --> 01:02:27,680
could can press the middle of the pocket which is you know kryptonite for Aaron Rodgers um especially

636
01:02:27,680 --> 01:02:34,720
with his liminal mobility of age and injury so really for me it's if the bills players who are

637
01:02:34,720 --> 01:02:39,040
injured are able to get back for this one and Taryn Johnson I mean this is a complete x-factor if

638
01:02:39,040 --> 01:02:45,920
he's in I think the bills win just period regardless of any of the other player status um I'm saying

639
01:02:45,920 --> 01:02:52,000
bills 24 jets 21 I think it's gonna be close I think it's gonna be tight at the end I think that even

640
01:02:52,000 --> 01:03:00,320
if the locker room's not cohesive I think that Aaron Rodgers has an his ego might might carry

641
01:03:00,320 --> 01:03:06,560
him to greatness in this situation of proving that he was it was correct that he remains in

642
01:03:06,560 --> 01:03:15,920
solid is gone all right um I'm gonna keep this short and sweet um I have never picked the bills on

643
01:03:15,920 --> 01:03:25,920
this podcast to lose I am picking them to lose until until Joe Brady shows me a counter punch

644
01:03:26,480 --> 01:03:32,640
or an ability to scheme for a guy on that on that offensive team offensive pass catcher room

645
01:03:32,640 --> 01:03:39,760
I just don't think right now the bills have the firepower to crack through what is a solid

646
01:03:39,760 --> 01:03:47,600
imperfect but solid jets defense the jets have played the bills extraordinarily well at home

647
01:03:47,600 --> 01:03:52,880
over the past few years too and breeze hall has had some of his best career games against the

648
01:03:52,880 --> 01:03:57,840
bills bills can't stop the run if they choose to unlock braille and ellen and breeze hall in this

649
01:03:57,840 --> 01:04:04,880
game I think the jets win pretty handily I think final score is jets 21 bills 17 I think the bills

650
01:04:04,880 --> 01:04:09,760
are gonna go down they're gonna go to three and three we're gonna hit our very typical panic mode

651
01:04:09,760 --> 01:04:14,800
that we hit with bills mafia where this team is 500 where they shouldn't be and then a whole

652
01:04:14,800 --> 01:04:20,400
bunch of calls for mcdermot to get fired are gonna get a lot louder so that's where I'm at with that

653
01:04:20,400 --> 01:04:27,040
three okay there what are like three super polarizing predictions I know really we're all over

654
01:04:27,040 --> 01:04:33,280
them one of us is gonna hit someone's got a hit right but like they're all we're all mired in

655
01:04:33,280 --> 01:04:38,560
recency bias and I'll admit it for me of what we've seen out of our squads over the last few weeks

656
01:04:38,560 --> 01:04:45,120
right for me I've lived this I've lived this movie with the bills before where they look like absolute

657
01:04:45,120 --> 01:04:50,320
world beaters and then they just hit an impossibly rough stretch where it seems they lose in a new

658
01:04:50,320 --> 01:04:56,080
way every week I think they're gonna find a new new way to lose in this game and they're gonna

659
01:04:56,080 --> 01:05:00,480
all gonna say the same thing after the press conference our backs are against the wall but

660
01:05:00,480 --> 01:05:05,920
we've been here before and we've done this and we know we can come back and sure maybe you can

661
01:05:05,920 --> 01:05:11,120
but shit wouldn't it be nice to have a two game lead on the Jets heading into the next quarter

662
01:05:11,120 --> 01:05:16,320
of the season opposed to half two rattle off seven straight wins like you did last season in the

663
01:05:16,320 --> 01:05:21,440
year before to even compete for the division like you don't need to always play with your backs

664
01:05:21,440 --> 01:05:28,400
against the wall but I don't think this coaching staff or this roster constructed like knows knows

665
01:05:28,400 --> 01:05:34,160
how to not do that if that makes any kind of sense this seems to be where they are most comfortable

666
01:05:34,160 --> 01:05:38,720
when they are 500 when they shouldn't be and everybody is doubting them and they've got to

667
01:05:38,720 --> 01:05:45,440
make this impossible run of wins like I again watch this movie before the bills will lose

668
01:05:45,440 --> 01:05:50,640
they will be 500 heading into their next game against the who is it is the do we get the Titans

669
01:05:50,640 --> 01:05:56,720
next Titans then Seahawks yep yeah heading into their next game against the Titans that'll be some

670
01:05:56,720 --> 01:06:03,200
stupid 17 to 9 game that the bills somehow pull off right like we've just seen the script with

671
01:06:03,200 --> 01:06:07,760
this squad before and we talked a little bit about it in our sorry I said we keep the short and

672
01:06:07,760 --> 01:06:12,880
sweep but now I'm now I'm off we talked about a little bit about this in our Houston recap like

673
01:06:12,880 --> 01:06:21,920
the roster turnover the coordinator turnover the consistency that you can hit every single

674
01:06:21,920 --> 01:06:26,640
beat of a bill season has everything to do with the head coach and until that changes this is the

675
01:06:26,640 --> 01:06:31,440
way this team is going to play so they're going to lose they're going to be 500 and the Jets are

676
01:06:31,440 --> 01:06:36,560
going to be three and three in first place in the AFC East one is all sudden done at the end of this

677
01:06:36,560 --> 01:06:45,440
week all right let's move on to some props um I've got two James Cook and as a combo deal

678
01:06:45,440 --> 01:06:53,680
breeze hall over under 75.5 rushing yards apiece I think I think both teams are going to attack

679
01:06:53,680 --> 01:06:58,720
the opposing team in the run game I just think the squad that doesn't if they don't they're

680
01:06:58,720 --> 01:07:03,920
dumb right with how bad both of these defenses are against the run I think it could be a big day for

681
01:07:03,920 --> 01:07:12,080
both running backs where you guys at with that I'll smash I'll smash the over um I'll probably fail

682
01:07:12,080 --> 01:07:16,320
on it because I could see breeze hall easily getting 75 against this bill's defense I think

683
01:07:16,320 --> 01:07:21,200
that James Cook will probably have 150 all purpose yards but maybe more of them are in the pass

684
01:07:21,920 --> 01:07:27,280
then then in the run I don't know that he gets 75 of them half of them in in running traditionally

685
01:07:27,280 --> 01:07:31,920
between the tackles or outside I think that'd be a good sign for this bill's offense if he if he

686
01:07:31,920 --> 01:07:37,200
can jack up his past catching total so yeah I would take that Jared what about you I'm with you Dan I

687
01:07:37,200 --> 01:07:41,120
think this isn't easy over JJ has me second guessing myself because I was thinking about total

688
01:07:41,120 --> 01:07:46,560
yards not rushing yards but I still think based on the plan of attack and the recipe to beat the

689
01:07:46,560 --> 01:07:53,040
other team that is going to be your own head I'm going to take I'm going to take the over for hall

690
01:07:53,040 --> 01:07:57,760
because again I just think the jet the jets would be supremely dumb if they didn't take advantage

691
01:07:57,760 --> 01:08:05,520
of his success against this bill's team the the bills for cook I think I'm gonna I'm gonna also

692
01:08:05,520 --> 01:08:10,560
take the over but I wouldn't surprise JJ to your point if it is the under because there is still

693
01:08:10,560 --> 01:08:14,720
some weird personnel groupings that are going on with the bills at this point I just I just don't

694
01:08:14,720 --> 01:08:19,600
know where they're at they cycle out cook way too frequently for me they seem reluctant to give them

695
01:08:19,600 --> 01:08:25,120
the ball in traditional run game like right now he's their most Josh Allen included their most

696
01:08:25,120 --> 01:08:30,240
consistent offensive weapon I have confidence he's got the ability to do it I don't know that the

697
01:08:30,240 --> 01:08:35,200
coaching staff will put him in a position to succeed and do it is my only hesitance but yeah

698
01:08:35,200 --> 01:08:40,800
I'll smash the over on both I've got one more but I want to kick it to you guys any prop bets you

699
01:08:40,800 --> 01:08:49,840
want to throw in here I've got just one over under two and a half sacks against Josh Allen and

700
01:08:49,840 --> 01:08:57,520
Aaron Rodgers is this another combo yes combo you got to give me an over or an under for two and a

701
01:08:57,520 --> 01:09:04,560
half on either Josh Allen or and or Aaron Rodgers I think Aaron Rodgers is definitely gonna get sacked

702
01:09:04,560 --> 01:09:11,840
three more times okay I would not take it on Josh Josh is so hard to bring down but the jets are one

703
01:09:11,840 --> 01:09:17,280
of the teams that have had success in doing it and will mcdonald in the absence of germaine johnson

704
01:09:17,280 --> 01:09:22,640
has proved to be an absolute world beater he is currently recording the highest pressure rate for

705
01:09:22,640 --> 01:09:28,880
any defensive end with 50 or more past rush attempts this season and he's speedy and athletic enough

706
01:09:28,880 --> 01:09:35,200
to chase down Josh so I you know I'll take the over for both right I'll take the over for both I

707
01:09:35,200 --> 01:09:40,400
am gonna hit the under for both because I think that this is the that both teams are gonna be

708
01:09:40,400 --> 01:09:46,480
anxious about that I think that that's the one piece that both offensive coordinators are gonna

709
01:09:46,480 --> 01:09:51,120
try to minimize as much as possible the time that the Aaron Rodgers and Josh Allen are holding the

710
01:09:51,120 --> 01:09:57,920
ball given Aaron Rodgers and Josh Allen both taking a bit of a beating last week and showing some

711
01:09:57,920 --> 01:10:03,360
signs of you know potential injury slowness you know those sorts of things all right I'm gonna I'm

712
01:10:03,360 --> 01:10:07,440
gonna piggyback off of that because my last prop is a sack one and then Jared will kick it to you

713
01:10:07,440 --> 01:10:14,320
if you got one for us Greg Russo over under half a sack does he come out of what I like to call

714
01:10:14,320 --> 01:10:21,760
Jerry Hughes territory JJ wherever god why are you gonna talk my guy like that well I'm just saying

715
01:10:21,760 --> 01:10:27,680
like so here's the comp Jerry Hughes last season had one game where he set QB five times four times

716
01:10:27,680 --> 01:10:32,960
finished with six sacks on the season Greg Russo has had one game this year where he has recorded

717
01:10:32,960 --> 01:10:38,960
his entire sack total for the year which is three and that was the Arizona game over a month ago

718
01:10:38,960 --> 01:10:44,640
doing a great job getting pressure not doing a great job bringing the QB down does he get out of

719
01:10:44,640 --> 01:10:51,440
the Jerry Hughes zone and record a sack or will it just be pressure maven all the way uh I think he

720
01:10:51,440 --> 01:11:00,400
does I think he gets a sack of his own or at least a half sack yeah Jared is that what you're at too

721
01:11:02,000 --> 01:11:06,080
Rodgers is a statue this is gonna be like watching major league but it's football

722
01:11:06,080 --> 01:11:13,680
they're gonna like I really think the Jets are gonna burn this guys amazing um I'm gonna say under

723
01:11:13,680 --> 01:11:20,880
and the only reason I'm gonna say under is Russo has not proven that he can be a reliable solo sack

724
01:11:20,880 --> 01:11:26,400
getter without someone like a von Miller on the opposite side of him and with von still out and

725
01:11:26,400 --> 01:11:32,240
epineza being okay but not like consistently great on the other side I just think they're

726
01:11:32,240 --> 01:11:35,680
gonna key in on Russo and I just don't think he's gonna have it so I'm gonna say under I don't

727
01:11:35,680 --> 01:11:39,840
think he records a sack but I hope I'm wrong I hope I'm wrong about all of this let me just put it

728
01:11:39,840 --> 01:11:48,560
that way Jared do you have a prop for us I mean I not not game pertaining you be prepared you know

729
01:11:48,560 --> 01:11:55,040
over or under times Jared is gonna stand up and yell I effing told you so with television I would

730
01:11:55,040 --> 01:12:01,680
set that at 10 and a half um I'll take the over on that I will take the out I will take the over

731
01:12:01,680 --> 01:12:05,920
as well and then it should be followed up by they should just hire me to run this thing

732
01:12:08,160 --> 01:12:14,960
I don't know enough football but I'll listen better I swear oh god amazing amazing all right well

733
01:12:14,960 --> 01:12:20,080
it has been uh I hope Jared I hope you got what you were looking for out of this a little catharsis

734
01:12:20,080 --> 01:12:24,320
we appreciate you guest uh guest hosting with us as well it's always great to get your insights on

735
01:12:24,320 --> 01:12:28,640
the Jets for all of you listening at home like share and subscribe wherever you get your podcast

736
01:12:28,640 --> 01:12:44,560
google apple spotify and as always go bills go bills

737
01:12:58,640 --> 01:12:59,560
do