1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:02,560 All right, welcome back to the Buffalo Bread podcast. 2 00:00:02,560 --> 00:00:07,160 We are in week five and we are looking at a matchup 3 00:00:07,160 --> 00:00:11,360 between the Buffalo Bills and Stefan, Marshawn, Diggs. 4 00:00:11,360 --> 00:00:14,480 I mean, the Houston Texans, that's who we're playing this week. 5 00:00:14,480 --> 00:00:15,320 It's the whole team. 6 00:00:15,320 --> 00:00:20,800 It's not just the former much-belighted wide receiver 7 00:00:20,800 --> 00:00:23,840 who may or may not have been a cancer in the locker room, 8 00:00:23,840 --> 00:00:26,200 but definitely was one of the most productive players 9 00:00:26,200 --> 00:00:30,400 in the offense for the Bills for the past three seasons. 10 00:00:30,400 --> 00:00:32,800 Dan, I don't want to bury the lead. 11 00:00:32,800 --> 00:00:34,000 So we have Stefan Diggs. 12 00:00:34,000 --> 00:00:35,440 You know who else we have? 13 00:00:35,440 --> 00:00:37,600 Jerry Freakin' Hughes. 14 00:00:37,600 --> 00:00:40,360 OK, and that's really what we're here to talk about. 15 00:00:40,360 --> 00:00:43,160 The Stefan Diggs thing has its intrigue, 16 00:00:43,160 --> 00:00:46,280 but it is absolutely time for this game 17 00:00:46,280 --> 00:00:49,480 to settle the Jerry Hughes debate we have had on the spot once 18 00:00:49,480 --> 00:00:51,360 and for all. 19 00:00:51,360 --> 00:00:52,920 They should have traded him. 20 00:00:52,920 --> 00:00:55,360 But I don't want it to settle that, 21 00:00:55,360 --> 00:00:57,120 because I was always pro Jerry Hughes, 22 00:00:57,120 --> 00:01:00,040 and I don't want him to come out and have a four sack. 23 00:01:00,040 --> 00:01:02,720 He's going to have a three pressure campaign. 24 00:01:02,720 --> 00:01:03,520 We know this. 25 00:01:03,520 --> 00:01:04,480 He's no sacks. 26 00:01:04,480 --> 00:01:06,680 He's never going to get a sack. 27 00:01:06,680 --> 00:01:07,960 Just pressures. 28 00:01:07,960 --> 00:01:08,760 Just pressures. 29 00:01:08,760 --> 00:01:11,040 He is a pressure maven. 30 00:01:11,040 --> 00:01:14,840 That man puts pressure where pressure cannot ever be applied. 31 00:01:14,840 --> 00:01:16,960 He just cannot get a sack, all right? 32 00:01:16,960 --> 00:01:19,800 Except for one game last season where he had four. 33 00:01:19,800 --> 00:01:20,080 Right. 34 00:01:20,080 --> 00:01:22,560 And then he finished the season with six. 35 00:01:22,560 --> 00:01:24,520 Oh. 36 00:01:24,520 --> 00:01:25,000 So yeah. 37 00:01:25,000 --> 00:01:26,040 Anyways, no. 38 00:01:26,040 --> 00:01:30,880 In all seriousness, this is one lots of Bill's fans 39 00:01:30,880 --> 00:01:33,640 have probably had circled on their calendar for a minute, 40 00:01:33,640 --> 00:01:35,160 ever since the Stefan Diggs trade. 41 00:01:35,160 --> 00:01:38,000 It'll always, I think, forever and all time 42 00:01:38,000 --> 00:01:42,040 until the 30 for 30 on this Buffalo Bill's team comes out, 43 00:01:42,040 --> 00:01:45,880 be somewhat cloudy and somewhat of a mystery. 44 00:01:45,880 --> 00:01:51,080 How, why, when, things between Josh Allen, Stefan Diggs, 45 00:01:51,080 --> 00:01:54,560 and the Bill's organization began to deteriorate. 46 00:01:54,560 --> 00:01:56,320 What I don't think we should lose sight of 47 00:01:56,320 --> 00:01:59,560 is the fact that this era of Buffalo Bill's football 48 00:01:59,560 --> 00:02:04,320 we are enjoying probably does not happen if Stefan Diggs is 49 00:02:04,320 --> 00:02:07,160 not the accelerator to the development of Josh Allen 50 00:02:07,160 --> 00:02:10,040 and this offense that he was. 51 00:02:10,040 --> 00:02:14,040 Regardless of how it ended, he gave us a lot of good times 52 00:02:14,040 --> 00:02:16,440 from when it started right up until the end. 53 00:02:16,440 --> 00:02:19,360 And I think that's something that Bill's fans would be remiss 54 00:02:19,360 --> 00:02:22,320 if we didn't appreciate heading into this game. 55 00:02:22,320 --> 00:02:25,160 Yeah, and I think that's been my kind of opinion 56 00:02:25,160 --> 00:02:28,720 of the thing in my meandering through the social media, 57 00:02:28,720 --> 00:02:31,840 Twitter sphere and all those places with Bill's mafia 58 00:02:31,840 --> 00:02:35,120 is that I don't wish him harm. 59 00:02:35,120 --> 00:02:39,360 I don't necessarily wish him well because I think, you know, 60 00:02:39,360 --> 00:02:41,360 I look at the whole situation in Buffalo, 61 00:02:41,360 --> 00:02:43,680 I look at the situation in Minnesota, 62 00:02:43,680 --> 00:02:46,560 it, you know, fool me once, shame on you, 63 00:02:46,560 --> 00:02:48,320 or fool me twice, shame on me, right? 64 00:02:48,320 --> 00:02:51,960 Like, there is a reason that this guy has been moved on 65 00:02:51,960 --> 00:02:56,040 from my multiple teams at a loss, essentially. 66 00:02:56,040 --> 00:03:01,040 He's kind of a, you know, he's been a lemon personality wise 67 00:03:01,800 --> 00:03:05,320 and he's been, you know, an outstanding value 68 00:03:05,320 --> 00:03:07,240 productivity wise, but it's the kind of thing 69 00:03:07,240 --> 00:03:09,840 where when multiple franchises are willing to kind of like 70 00:03:09,840 --> 00:03:13,200 walk away from you close to your prime 71 00:03:13,200 --> 00:03:15,720 because it's more of a headache to keep you around 72 00:03:15,720 --> 00:03:18,800 even at a massive loss of financial, you know, 73 00:03:18,800 --> 00:03:21,560 freedom with the cap, that says something for me 74 00:03:21,560 --> 00:03:24,680 about who you are as a person, because as a player, 75 00:03:24,680 --> 00:03:26,680 like you mentioned, I think that he was integral 76 00:03:26,680 --> 00:03:27,840 to Josh Allen's development. 77 00:03:27,840 --> 00:03:30,040 I don't think he was essential to Josh Allen 78 00:03:30,040 --> 00:03:31,640 being a good quarterback, like he might have 79 00:03:31,640 --> 00:03:35,640 the opinion of himself as, and I do think he was on the 80 00:03:35,640 --> 00:03:36,640 decline in his career. 81 00:03:36,640 --> 00:03:39,040 I think he didn't show up and he disappeared 82 00:03:39,040 --> 00:03:41,800 in big moments the entire time he was in Buffalo. 83 00:03:41,800 --> 00:03:44,640 I mean, we don't, I don't remember a single game 84 00:03:44,640 --> 00:03:48,840 where Stefan Diggs, you know, was the story of the game 85 00:03:48,840 --> 00:03:51,640 in the receiving core in the playoffs. 86 00:03:51,640 --> 00:03:55,240 Do you, do you have a Stefan Diggs game you can recall? 87 00:03:55,240 --> 00:03:58,400 No, I mean, he was, he was effectively erased 88 00:03:58,400 --> 00:04:00,480 in a lot of the bill's postseason runs. 89 00:04:00,480 --> 00:04:04,200 I listen, I agree with you and I think 90 00:04:04,200 --> 00:04:06,480 for all the success he brought to the team, 91 00:04:06,480 --> 00:04:08,680 his disappearance in the postseason, 92 00:04:08,680 --> 00:04:11,120 particularly these last three postseason runs 93 00:04:11,120 --> 00:04:15,200 the bills had that ended with Casey Cincinnati 94 00:04:15,200 --> 00:04:19,280 and Casey absolutely have to be mentioned 95 00:04:19,280 --> 00:04:22,440 as part of his legacy with the Buffalo bills. 96 00:04:22,440 --> 00:04:24,960 I do not want them to win. 97 00:04:24,960 --> 00:04:28,240 And I do appreciate what he provided for the bills. 98 00:04:28,240 --> 00:04:31,480 I will say this has, this Houston game is interesting 99 00:04:31,480 --> 00:04:35,760 beyond just Jerry Hughes and Stefan Diggs. 100 00:04:35,760 --> 00:04:36,600 Hang on, hang on. 101 00:04:36,600 --> 00:04:39,000 The Jerry Hughes piece is not interesting. 102 00:04:39,000 --> 00:04:40,480 He's not good anymore. 103 00:04:40,480 --> 00:04:41,320 I know. 104 00:04:41,320 --> 00:04:42,880 He's not good anymore. 105 00:04:42,880 --> 00:04:44,200 I just love Jerry. 106 00:04:44,200 --> 00:04:46,640 He meant something to a fan base 107 00:04:46,640 --> 00:04:50,320 when there was no star power whatsoever on the roster. 108 00:04:50,320 --> 00:04:53,760 We also have Breakin, Case Keenum, Robert Woods 109 00:04:53,760 --> 00:04:57,840 and Buffalo bills stand out from the 23-24 season 110 00:04:57,840 --> 00:05:01,760 backup right tackle, Nick Broker. 111 00:05:01,760 --> 00:05:06,120 It's a whole cavalcade of former Buffalo bills on this team. 112 00:05:06,120 --> 00:05:08,240 It's a family reunion, what can you say? 113 00:05:08,240 --> 00:05:10,600 But I will say this specifically, 114 00:05:10,600 --> 00:05:13,600 I, when I was watching the Houston Texans 115 00:05:13,600 --> 00:05:17,160 in their games this week, they, you know, of course came out 116 00:05:17,160 --> 00:05:18,800 they beat the Bears in the opener, 117 00:05:18,800 --> 00:05:20,680 or I'm sorry, they beat the Colts in the opener 118 00:05:20,680 --> 00:05:22,080 in a very close game. 119 00:05:22,080 --> 00:05:23,480 They beat the Bears week two 120 00:05:23,480 --> 00:05:25,680 and again a close six point victory. 121 00:05:25,680 --> 00:05:29,480 They got absolutely demolished by the Vikings 34 to seven 122 00:05:29,480 --> 00:05:32,360 and then they beat the Jaguars and also in a game 123 00:05:32,360 --> 00:05:36,000 that was close 24-20, but really felt like the Texans 124 00:05:36,000 --> 00:05:40,240 controlled it the whole way with occasional spurts 125 00:05:40,240 --> 00:05:41,080 from the Jaguars. 126 00:05:41,080 --> 00:05:45,280 So through watching that, I noticed, 127 00:05:45,280 --> 00:05:48,360 I noticed Robert Woods and I actually was surprised 128 00:05:48,360 --> 00:05:52,080 seeing him catch a ball before I saw the nameplate 129 00:05:52,080 --> 00:05:54,240 or the number or anything that would tell me it was Robert Woods. 130 00:05:54,240 --> 00:05:57,040 I'm like, holy, Robert Woods is still playing, right? 131 00:05:57,040 --> 00:05:58,800 Like, it seems like it's impossible 132 00:05:58,800 --> 00:06:00,480 that he'd still be productive at this level, 133 00:06:00,480 --> 00:06:03,040 but he's not only is he still, he's still playing, 134 00:06:03,040 --> 00:06:05,440 but he was doing Robert Woods things that you expect. 135 00:06:05,440 --> 00:06:07,920 He's in the place he's supposed to be with sure hands 136 00:06:07,920 --> 00:06:12,920 and he is the covered by the fourth or fifth best coverage 137 00:06:12,920 --> 00:06:14,320 person in the defensive backfield 138 00:06:14,320 --> 00:06:16,600 because they have Nico Collins, Tank Dell 139 00:06:16,600 --> 00:06:18,040 and Stefan Diggs out there too. 140 00:06:18,040 --> 00:06:19,400 Yeah, absolutely. 141 00:06:19,400 --> 00:06:21,440 No, and I think that's a good segue 142 00:06:21,440 --> 00:06:23,800 to talk about where I wanna start things, 143 00:06:23,800 --> 00:06:25,920 which is the Buffalo Bills defense 144 00:06:25,920 --> 00:06:28,600 against this Houston Texans offense. 145 00:06:28,600 --> 00:06:33,200 The Texans offense JJ has been not as potent 146 00:06:33,200 --> 00:06:38,200 as I think folks expected to be early in the off season. 147 00:06:38,400 --> 00:06:40,200 When they made all these moves, 148 00:06:40,200 --> 00:06:42,680 the offensive line was getting healthy. 149 00:06:42,680 --> 00:06:45,040 They add Stefan Diggs to the mix. 150 00:06:45,040 --> 00:06:47,360 All of a sudden, they're popping up 151 00:06:47,360 --> 00:06:50,640 as a lot of folks trendy pick to make the Super Bowl, 152 00:06:50,640 --> 00:06:52,280 unseat the Chiefs and all that, 153 00:06:52,280 --> 00:06:53,520 but it's been a bit of a struggle. 154 00:06:53,520 --> 00:06:54,800 From a scoring perspective, 155 00:06:54,800 --> 00:06:59,080 this team is only averaging about 19.7 points per game 156 00:06:59,080 --> 00:07:00,920 through the first four weeks. 157 00:07:00,920 --> 00:07:03,520 They got absolutely obliterated by Minnesota, 158 00:07:03,520 --> 00:07:07,360 but Minnesota is steamrolling a lot of people these days. 159 00:07:07,360 --> 00:07:10,120 They had that, they had two divisional games 160 00:07:10,120 --> 00:07:11,320 against Jacksonville and Indy, 161 00:07:11,320 --> 00:07:13,400 which are always weird ones too. 162 00:07:13,400 --> 00:07:16,720 So part of me thinks that some of this is just 163 00:07:16,720 --> 00:07:18,720 first quarter of the season jitters. 164 00:07:18,720 --> 00:07:20,440 Add to that Bobby Sloik, 165 00:07:20,440 --> 00:07:23,240 their highly touted offensive coordinator 166 00:07:23,240 --> 00:07:25,920 is trying to figure out what the run game looks like 167 00:07:25,920 --> 00:07:28,880 without Joe Mixon, who has still been injured. 168 00:07:28,880 --> 00:07:30,560 I will say though, a couple of things 169 00:07:30,560 --> 00:07:33,040 that have not played out to expectation 170 00:07:33,040 --> 00:07:35,000 have been the improvement in the offensive line. 171 00:07:35,000 --> 00:07:36,280 Tunsel is still hurt. 172 00:07:37,280 --> 00:07:39,640 And at this point, we don't have a full blown injury 173 00:07:39,640 --> 00:07:43,280 or practice report from either squad to report out on, 174 00:07:43,280 --> 00:07:47,160 but even with Tunsel's injury aside, 175 00:07:47,160 --> 00:07:49,400 the health of this offensive line has been kind of 176 00:07:49,400 --> 00:07:50,920 where they've wanted it to be. 177 00:07:50,920 --> 00:07:54,880 And it's a unit that still has not met the expectations. 178 00:07:54,880 --> 00:07:57,800 It feels like this organization felt they would. 179 00:07:57,800 --> 00:08:01,200 The run game when Mixon isn't in has been non-existent 180 00:08:01,200 --> 00:08:04,680 and ineffective, particularly on first down as well. 181 00:08:04,680 --> 00:08:08,040 And it's putting CJ Stroud in a lot of uncomfortable 182 00:08:08,040 --> 00:08:10,040 or quite frankly, untenable situations 183 00:08:10,040 --> 00:08:12,840 with second and long and third and long. 184 00:08:12,840 --> 00:08:15,080 The offense JJ is having a really hard time 185 00:08:15,080 --> 00:08:17,240 in Houston staying on schedule. 186 00:08:17,240 --> 00:08:19,760 It's gonna be interesting to see what McDermott 187 00:08:19,760 --> 00:08:22,240 and Babbage do to kind of keep them in that rut. 188 00:08:25,080 --> 00:08:27,400 Yeah, and I think that what you're gonna see too 189 00:08:27,400 --> 00:08:32,040 is that this offensive line is far more, 190 00:08:32,040 --> 00:08:34,000 it reminds me quite a lot of the Buffalo Bills 191 00:08:34,000 --> 00:08:36,120 offensive line from last year, 192 00:08:36,120 --> 00:08:40,000 in that all of the guys are about the same size. 193 00:08:40,000 --> 00:08:43,640 They're not a super powerful, large, oversized offensive line 194 00:08:43,640 --> 00:08:46,480 like the Ravens that the Bills just faced. 195 00:08:46,480 --> 00:08:50,080 The Houston Texans line is a little bit undersized 196 00:08:50,080 --> 00:08:51,360 in a few positions. 197 00:08:51,360 --> 00:08:53,560 It got some shorter guys with a little bit less reach 198 00:08:53,560 --> 00:08:56,400 and some lighter guys who are just at 300 199 00:08:56,400 --> 00:08:58,320 or just over 300 pounds. 200 00:08:58,320 --> 00:09:00,120 No Daniel Filale at 380 201 00:09:00,120 --> 00:09:03,440 like I talked about on the previous pod, thank God. 202 00:09:03,440 --> 00:09:07,240 So it's interesting what they're going to do 203 00:09:07,240 --> 00:09:11,840 or what the Bills offensive pass rush is going to do 204 00:09:11,840 --> 00:09:15,600 to try to redeem themselves after having barely little, 205 00:09:16,800 --> 00:09:20,080 barely any pressure against Lamar Jackson 206 00:09:20,080 --> 00:09:23,240 and against the Ravens and how they can kind of 207 00:09:23,240 --> 00:09:25,240 maybe mix things up, use some stunts, 208 00:09:25,240 --> 00:09:29,000 use some different twists and some delay pressure. 209 00:09:29,000 --> 00:09:31,320 Because I think that the story of this game, 210 00:09:31,320 --> 00:09:35,600 this Bills defense versus their offense is about, 211 00:09:35,600 --> 00:09:37,040 what can they do? 212 00:09:37,040 --> 00:09:39,720 What can Bobby Babbage dial up 213 00:09:39,720 --> 00:09:44,720 to establish the physicality and dominance of the game 214 00:09:45,200 --> 00:09:47,440 without getting dinked and dunked to death? 215 00:09:47,440 --> 00:09:50,000 Because I think that's largely what we've seen too 216 00:09:50,000 --> 00:09:51,880 is that CGS Brown is a talent, 217 00:09:51,880 --> 00:09:56,880 but his talent is somewhat diminished this season 218 00:09:56,920 --> 00:09:59,760 because teams are more familiar with what he does best 219 00:09:59,760 --> 00:10:02,200 and he hasn't been protected as well as he was last year. 220 00:10:02,200 --> 00:10:05,080 So between those two things, 221 00:10:05,080 --> 00:10:07,120 there's opportunities for this Bills defense, 222 00:10:07,120 --> 00:10:08,760 but they have to set that tone early. 223 00:10:08,760 --> 00:10:11,280 They have to stop the running attack. 224 00:10:11,280 --> 00:10:14,360 The Houston Texans, as you mentioned, are missing Joe Mixon. 225 00:10:14,360 --> 00:10:16,520 Damian Pierce was also dinged up, 226 00:10:16,520 --> 00:10:17,480 but they have, you know, 227 00:10:17,480 --> 00:10:19,680 Cam Acres who's still out there and producing 228 00:10:19,680 --> 00:10:24,320 and Daria Agubenoale who was a former Jacksonville Jaguar, 229 00:10:24,320 --> 00:10:26,120 sort of a depth piece component, 230 00:10:26,120 --> 00:10:30,480 but had some good quick runs against the Jaguars 231 00:10:30,480 --> 00:10:32,320 in that game may have also had, 232 00:10:32,320 --> 00:10:35,280 it may have also caught a touchdown, I believe, 233 00:10:35,280 --> 00:10:36,400 on a quick flare route. 234 00:10:36,400 --> 00:10:38,760 So they do have some talent 235 00:10:38,760 --> 00:10:42,560 and I do think that there's a possibility 236 00:10:42,560 --> 00:10:46,600 that the Bills could be in for some challenging run looks 237 00:10:46,600 --> 00:10:47,720 because the offensive line, 238 00:10:47,720 --> 00:10:49,360 the one undersized in a lot of ways, 239 00:10:49,360 --> 00:10:50,920 does have some athletic pieces. 240 00:10:51,760 --> 00:10:53,600 It's just a matter of they gotta stay disciplined 241 00:10:53,600 --> 00:10:55,320 and they have to bring the physicality 242 00:10:55,320 --> 00:10:57,080 or it's gonna be another long day. 243 00:10:58,760 --> 00:11:00,080 Yeah, absolutely. 244 00:11:00,080 --> 00:11:02,400 I mean, especially when you're talking about coverage 245 00:11:02,400 --> 00:11:04,840 needing to hold up on the back end 246 00:11:04,840 --> 00:11:07,400 against this wide receiver in past catcher room 247 00:11:07,400 --> 00:11:09,560 that Houston is rolling out there. 248 00:11:09,560 --> 00:11:12,720 Listen, if the organic pressure is not getting to strudge 249 00:11:12,720 --> 00:11:16,080 and forcing him off his mark or off his platform, 250 00:11:16,080 --> 00:11:18,520 it could vary will be a long day, not just for this defensive 251 00:11:18,520 --> 00:11:21,000 line, JJ, but for the secondary room, 252 00:11:21,000 --> 00:11:24,760 which in large part has held its own. 253 00:11:24,760 --> 00:11:27,480 But as we talked about in the Baltimore game, 254 00:11:28,480 --> 00:11:33,480 there was a clear decision by Todd Munkin 255 00:11:34,720 --> 00:11:38,120 to target Balanced Spectre, Dorian Williams 256 00:11:38,120 --> 00:11:40,080 and Cam Lewis in the pass game, 257 00:11:40,080 --> 00:11:41,360 albeit the limited pass game 258 00:11:41,360 --> 00:11:43,240 that the Ravens needed to roll out 259 00:11:43,240 --> 00:11:45,360 because of the success of their run game. 260 00:11:45,360 --> 00:11:47,360 JJ, if the bills don't get pressure on him, 261 00:11:47,360 --> 00:11:52,360 he is an excellent QB when not pressured this season. 262 00:11:53,040 --> 00:11:55,840 His completion percentage over expected 263 00:11:55,840 --> 00:11:58,600 is eight and a half points above what's expected. 264 00:11:58,600 --> 00:12:00,400 He's plus 8.5. 265 00:12:00,400 --> 00:12:04,320 He has time to throw when not pressured is 2.5 seconds. 266 00:12:04,320 --> 00:12:07,880 So to me, that's less about feeling hurried in the pocket 267 00:12:07,880 --> 00:12:11,000 and more about because of the lack of pressure, 268 00:12:11,000 --> 00:12:14,600 he's seeing passing lanes more clearly from the pocket. 269 00:12:14,600 --> 00:12:16,960 And as a result of that, he's getting the ball out quicker 270 00:12:16,960 --> 00:12:20,560 than he is when he's facing a Blitz or a pressure package. 271 00:12:20,560 --> 00:12:22,840 They're going to pass more than they're going to run. 272 00:12:22,840 --> 00:12:26,080 I think it's gonna be a real test for this pass rush. 273 00:12:26,080 --> 00:12:27,640 I think it's gonna be a test for the pass rush. 274 00:12:27,640 --> 00:12:30,840 I also think that it's going to be interesting 275 00:12:30,840 --> 00:12:33,920 because the Buffalo Bills and Sean McDermott 276 00:12:33,920 --> 00:12:37,720 has such a strong track record against young quarterbacks. 277 00:12:37,720 --> 00:12:40,040 Like, you know, quarterbacks in their first or second year 278 00:12:40,040 --> 00:12:42,360 in the league tend to do very poorly 279 00:12:42,360 --> 00:12:44,240 against this Sean McDermott defense. 280 00:12:44,240 --> 00:12:47,240 Even if they are like an exceptional talent. 281 00:12:47,240 --> 00:12:52,240 And I see how that has been the reality 282 00:12:52,280 --> 00:12:56,640 in a poyre and hide situation and defense, you know, 283 00:12:56,640 --> 00:12:58,440 a defense led by poyre and hide. 284 00:12:59,280 --> 00:13:03,760 A defense led by rookie Cole Bishop and Damar Hamlin 285 00:13:03,760 --> 00:13:06,960 does not have the nuanced, savvy, you know, 286 00:13:06,960 --> 00:13:10,200 rotational ability, coverage, you know, 287 00:13:10,200 --> 00:13:11,800 disguised coverage ability, 288 00:13:11,800 --> 00:13:14,840 all the different things that made Sean McDermott's defense 289 00:13:14,840 --> 00:13:18,400 is so difficult for young passers to diagnose 290 00:13:18,400 --> 00:13:19,920 pre and post snap. 291 00:13:19,920 --> 00:13:23,800 I just don't see, I know he's, you know, the DB whisperer 292 00:13:23,800 --> 00:13:25,600 and he gets so much out of, you know, 293 00:13:25,600 --> 00:13:28,120 low, low round draft picks and free agents 294 00:13:28,120 --> 00:13:29,400 and various people. 295 00:13:29,400 --> 00:13:33,040 I wonder if this is a game where 296 00:13:33,040 --> 00:13:35,480 Damar Hamlin starts with Mike Edwards 297 00:13:35,480 --> 00:13:37,320 because they just need a little bit more 298 00:13:37,320 --> 00:13:39,200 veteransy out there for that purpose. 299 00:13:39,200 --> 00:13:42,320 Somebody who has a little bit more, you know, 300 00:13:42,320 --> 00:13:44,440 has a little bit more pelts on the wall 301 00:13:44,440 --> 00:13:46,920 in terms of playing in high profile games 302 00:13:46,920 --> 00:13:51,240 and can be relied upon to do some of that rotation, 303 00:13:51,240 --> 00:13:53,480 switching out to, from two high to one high 304 00:13:53,480 --> 00:13:55,080 and different things, pre and post snap 305 00:13:55,080 --> 00:13:58,840 to maybe confuse and muddle the looks for CJ Stroud. 306 00:13:58,840 --> 00:14:01,640 Because CJ Stroud will make mistakes. 307 00:14:01,640 --> 00:14:04,840 He had as high of a percentage of turnover worthy throws 308 00:14:04,840 --> 00:14:06,440 as Josh Allen last year, 309 00:14:06,440 --> 00:14:09,120 he just had a magical horseshoe up his rear end 310 00:14:09,120 --> 00:14:09,960 because- 311 00:14:09,960 --> 00:14:10,880 Way better turnover luck. 312 00:14:10,880 --> 00:14:11,720 Yeah. 313 00:14:11,720 --> 00:14:13,240 Yeah, none of them, none of those passes 314 00:14:13,240 --> 00:14:15,680 that should have been picked were picked. 315 00:14:15,680 --> 00:14:17,800 And he, you know, ended the season 316 00:14:17,800 --> 00:14:20,960 with I think eight interceptions or something like that. 317 00:14:20,960 --> 00:14:24,240 Yeah, you know, and I'm with you on the Mike Edwards thing. 318 00:14:24,240 --> 00:14:27,360 I, if Cole Bishop had had a full off season, 319 00:14:27,360 --> 00:14:29,440 I might feel differently about it, 320 00:14:29,440 --> 00:14:32,640 but both Bishop and Edwards missed time with injury. 321 00:14:32,640 --> 00:14:34,280 As a result, I think you gotta go with the guy 322 00:14:34,280 --> 00:14:36,640 that's got the veteran floor, you know what I mean? 323 00:14:36,640 --> 00:14:39,480 So I agree with that pairing. 324 00:14:39,480 --> 00:14:40,840 It's gonna be really, dude, 325 00:14:40,840 --> 00:14:43,040 it's gonna be really interesting to see 326 00:14:43,040 --> 00:14:46,520 what I, an X factor for me in this game 327 00:14:46,520 --> 00:14:48,840 would potentially be Tank Dell. 328 00:14:48,840 --> 00:14:51,400 Reason being is because he had, 329 00:14:51,400 --> 00:14:54,040 he has seen his, granted he missed a game this season, 330 00:14:54,040 --> 00:14:56,360 but he has seen his target share 331 00:14:56,360 --> 00:14:58,640 almost completely taken over by Stefan Diggs. 332 00:14:58,640 --> 00:15:01,640 Stefan Diggs has the second highest target rate 333 00:15:01,640 --> 00:15:04,400 on this team behind only Nico Collins. 334 00:15:04,400 --> 00:15:07,840 Tank Dell has yet to surpass, 335 00:15:07,840 --> 00:15:11,440 I think a hundred total yards on the season receiving, 336 00:15:11,440 --> 00:15:14,800 but he's a very quick, very elusive wide receiver. 337 00:15:14,800 --> 00:15:18,920 So yeah, man, Benford, Douglas gonna do 338 00:15:18,920 --> 00:15:22,440 what they can do against Diggs and Collins, 339 00:15:22,440 --> 00:15:25,360 which God bless by all means, 340 00:15:25,360 --> 00:15:27,640 especially with Nico Collins that dude's a beast. 341 00:15:27,640 --> 00:15:30,720 Yeah, I think that's a good spot for me to jump into 342 00:15:30,720 --> 00:15:34,160 having watched all of their games this season. 343 00:15:34,160 --> 00:15:36,880 And from just being familiar with their games 344 00:15:36,880 --> 00:15:39,920 from last season, Nico Collins is like 345 00:15:39,920 --> 00:15:43,800 the ideal wide receiver one in any system. 346 00:15:43,800 --> 00:15:47,160 Size, speed, amazing hands, 347 00:15:47,160 --> 00:15:49,800 also quickness, not just long speed, 348 00:15:49,800 --> 00:15:52,920 and the ability to get in and out of his breaks, 349 00:15:52,920 --> 00:15:56,120 flawlessly and set guys up to, 350 00:15:56,120 --> 00:15:59,520 bite on different stems that he tries to display. 351 00:15:59,520 --> 00:16:00,720 And then all of a sudden, 352 00:16:00,720 --> 00:16:02,520 they think he's gonna hook and he double moves 353 00:16:02,520 --> 00:16:03,360 and he's gone. 354 00:16:03,360 --> 00:16:07,160 Like I'm intimidated by that matchup 355 00:16:07,160 --> 00:16:09,800 more than I was coming into the Ravens game 356 00:16:09,800 --> 00:16:12,080 about the Derek Henry matchup. 357 00:16:12,080 --> 00:16:15,800 And that's incredibly worrying for me 358 00:16:15,800 --> 00:16:17,720 because he is a talent. 359 00:16:17,720 --> 00:16:19,360 And we know what Stefan Diggs is. 360 00:16:19,360 --> 00:16:22,480 I think it's gonna be really curious to me 361 00:16:22,480 --> 00:16:25,680 how the Buffalo Bills play Stefan Diggs 362 00:16:25,680 --> 00:16:27,600 because in the Jaguars game, 363 00:16:29,080 --> 00:16:32,080 Rasool Douglas and Christian Benford 364 00:16:32,080 --> 00:16:34,000 when lined up against Gabe Davis 365 00:16:34,000 --> 00:16:36,400 were incredibly physical with him. 366 00:16:36,400 --> 00:16:38,560 They were roughing him up at the line 367 00:16:38,560 --> 00:16:40,880 anytime they had a close in press, 368 00:16:40,880 --> 00:16:42,400 press man snap. 369 00:16:42,400 --> 00:16:46,040 And cause they knew from him being on the Bills 370 00:16:46,040 --> 00:16:49,320 that he, that was a surefire way to delay his route 371 00:16:49,320 --> 00:16:52,440 release and a surefire way to get him off of his spot 372 00:16:52,440 --> 00:16:55,080 and make sure he wasn't gonna hit his landmarks 373 00:16:55,080 --> 00:16:57,280 because he is not a burner. 374 00:16:57,280 --> 00:16:58,520 And so I'm really curious, 375 00:16:58,520 --> 00:17:00,360 and he was relatively, 376 00:17:00,360 --> 00:17:03,080 reportedly incredibly well liked in the locker room. 377 00:17:03,080 --> 00:17:04,600 If Stefan Diggs was unliked 378 00:17:04,600 --> 00:17:06,360 and they were that rough to their friends, 379 00:17:06,360 --> 00:17:09,040 I don't wanna see how they're gonna treat their enemies. 380 00:17:09,040 --> 00:17:11,840 I think the opportunity to press when given 381 00:17:11,840 --> 00:17:14,640 should absolutely be taken without a doubt. 382 00:17:14,640 --> 00:17:15,880 There's probably gonna be some sort of 383 00:17:15,880 --> 00:17:18,000 bracketed or cloud clouded coverage 384 00:17:18,000 --> 00:17:20,360 over Niko Collins, I would imagine too. 385 00:17:20,360 --> 00:17:22,720 So whoever you have on Stefan Diggs 386 00:17:22,720 --> 00:17:24,400 be it Benford or Douglas, 387 00:17:24,400 --> 00:17:25,720 you're probably gonna trust them 388 00:17:25,720 --> 00:17:27,880 to beat him at the line one on one. 389 00:17:27,880 --> 00:17:28,880 Absolutely. 390 00:17:28,880 --> 00:17:29,840 Absolutely. 391 00:17:29,840 --> 00:17:31,680 So you can dedicate those extra resources 392 00:17:31,680 --> 00:17:33,200 to shutting down Collins. 393 00:17:33,200 --> 00:17:36,160 Well, and we saw it in those three games, 394 00:17:36,160 --> 00:17:39,600 the KC Cincinnati and KC games you mentioned 395 00:17:39,600 --> 00:17:42,520 that when deep hits and backs are physical 396 00:17:42,520 --> 00:17:45,320 with Stefan Diggs at the line and effective at jamming him, 397 00:17:45,320 --> 00:17:47,040 he gets frustrated, gets in his head 398 00:17:47,040 --> 00:17:49,280 and you lose him for the game. 399 00:17:49,280 --> 00:17:51,760 Like he just gets to a point where he's too pissed off 400 00:17:51,760 --> 00:17:53,600 to like even operate. 401 00:17:53,600 --> 00:17:54,520 And then next thing you know, 402 00:17:54,520 --> 00:17:57,240 he's dropping a critical deep pass 403 00:17:57,240 --> 00:17:59,120 that could have turned things around for a team 404 00:17:59,120 --> 00:18:01,120 desperate to win at home in the playoffs 405 00:18:01,120 --> 00:18:02,840 against their nemesis. 406 00:18:02,840 --> 00:18:04,440 Yeah, absolutely. 407 00:18:04,440 --> 00:18:06,920 So I mean, listen, I think this is gonna be a more 408 00:18:06,920 --> 00:18:08,240 as we have discussed, 409 00:18:08,240 --> 00:18:12,080 pass heavy game plan that Houston's gonna roll out 410 00:18:12,080 --> 00:18:14,760 as opposed to what the Ravens did. 411 00:18:14,760 --> 00:18:16,720 And I think it's gonna present some unique challenges 412 00:18:16,720 --> 00:18:19,120 for this bill's defense for sure. 413 00:18:19,120 --> 00:18:22,640 This is still the number seven overall rated passing unit 414 00:18:22,640 --> 00:18:24,120 when it comes to passing efficiency. 415 00:18:24,120 --> 00:18:25,840 So when they throw it out there, 416 00:18:25,840 --> 00:18:28,280 they're absolutely making it work. 417 00:18:28,280 --> 00:18:30,640 Again, when you got a guy like Nico Collins, 418 00:18:30,640 --> 00:18:32,320 it's easier to make it work. 419 00:18:32,320 --> 00:18:35,320 But still, it's a passing offense that is clicking. 420 00:18:35,320 --> 00:18:37,640 It's the rushing game and pass protection 421 00:18:37,640 --> 00:18:39,280 that hasn't fully developed yet. 422 00:18:39,280 --> 00:18:42,080 That's where the bill's gotta make some other high. 423 00:18:42,080 --> 00:18:43,880 You wanna switch over to the offensive side of the ball, 424 00:18:43,880 --> 00:18:46,560 talk a little bit about what JA17 can do 425 00:18:46,560 --> 00:18:49,480 against the Stamiko Ryan scheme. 426 00:18:49,480 --> 00:18:50,640 Let's do it. 427 00:18:50,640 --> 00:18:51,480 All right, man. 428 00:18:51,480 --> 00:18:54,000 So here is what I'm gonna tell you 429 00:18:54,000 --> 00:18:55,640 what I am concerned about. 430 00:18:55,640 --> 00:18:57,480 And then you can tell me I'm either crazy 431 00:18:57,480 --> 00:18:58,800 or not crazy. 432 00:18:58,800 --> 00:19:00,160 This Texans defense, 433 00:19:00,160 --> 00:19:03,720 while they have given up points to opposing units, 434 00:19:03,720 --> 00:19:07,280 this is a defensive unit that does not give up a lot 435 00:19:07,280 --> 00:19:09,520 over the middle of the field. 436 00:19:09,520 --> 00:19:12,680 And they are extraordinarily potent 437 00:19:12,680 --> 00:19:16,080 when guarding the opposing team's slot wide receiver 438 00:19:16,080 --> 00:19:18,360 and also the opposing team's tight end. 439 00:19:18,360 --> 00:19:22,080 According to DVOA JJ, this is the number nine team 440 00:19:22,080 --> 00:19:24,960 and guarding the slot and the number one team 441 00:19:24,960 --> 00:19:27,360 and guarding an opposing team's tight end. 442 00:19:27,360 --> 00:19:29,760 When it comes to the pass catching game, 443 00:19:29,760 --> 00:19:32,720 they force everything to the outside. 444 00:19:32,720 --> 00:19:36,680 They force QBs to beat them outside of the hash marks 445 00:19:36,680 --> 00:19:38,240 whenever possible. 446 00:19:39,280 --> 00:19:43,080 JJ, is this a Keon Coleman breakout game? 447 00:19:43,080 --> 00:19:44,920 Am I crazy or not crazy? 448 00:19:44,920 --> 00:19:46,680 No, you are not crazy. 449 00:19:46,680 --> 00:19:49,080 And I can tell you exactly why. 450 00:19:50,960 --> 00:19:52,360 They're linebackers. 451 00:19:52,360 --> 00:19:54,680 So they have Aziz Alshayir, 452 00:19:54,680 --> 00:19:57,240 Jake Hansen, Henry, 202. 453 00:19:57,240 --> 00:19:58,440 Are there three linebackers? 454 00:19:58,440 --> 00:19:59,880 And of course they usually played nickels. 455 00:19:59,880 --> 00:20:03,160 So they're usually playing just two of them are not. 456 00:20:03,160 --> 00:20:04,520 I mean, they're all athletic, 457 00:20:04,520 --> 00:20:07,160 but none of them are like excellent 458 00:20:07,160 --> 00:20:10,120 in knowing how to squeeze a zone. 459 00:20:10,120 --> 00:20:13,440 And that is who Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir 460 00:20:13,440 --> 00:20:17,040 usually take advantage of when the team's playing zone. 461 00:20:17,040 --> 00:20:18,960 This is a team that plays predominantly zone 462 00:20:18,960 --> 00:20:22,560 60 plus percent of the time, like the rest of the NFL. 463 00:20:22,560 --> 00:20:23,680 You're not gonna see the, you know, 464 00:20:23,680 --> 00:20:26,280 probably not gonna see the fireworks of Josh Allen 465 00:20:26,280 --> 00:20:29,680 versus the Jaguars who refuse to leave man coverage. 466 00:20:29,680 --> 00:20:32,120 But yeah, I think it's gonna be interesting. 467 00:20:32,120 --> 00:20:36,480 I think that you're probably not going to see 468 00:20:36,480 --> 00:20:40,120 an outstanding game out of Mack Hollins 469 00:20:40,120 --> 00:20:43,280 or out of Keon Coleman. 470 00:20:43,280 --> 00:20:44,800 You're probably not gonna see anybody 471 00:20:44,800 --> 00:20:47,600 who's lined up in the outside really excelling 472 00:20:47,600 --> 00:20:49,680 because their cornerbacks, you know, 473 00:20:49,680 --> 00:20:51,800 Derek Stingley, Jr., Kamari Lassiter 474 00:20:51,800 --> 00:20:53,680 are both very, very good. 475 00:20:53,680 --> 00:20:55,000 I think that their nickel back 476 00:20:55,000 --> 00:20:58,760 is where the, you know, their volatility happens 477 00:20:58,760 --> 00:21:01,320 and where teams can get up on them. 478 00:21:01,320 --> 00:21:05,320 And just, you know, I feel I'm remiss to leave 479 00:21:05,320 --> 00:21:09,920 in this ex-bills and current bills matchup, you know, 480 00:21:09,920 --> 00:21:14,920 reunion, I just glazed right over two stalwarts, 481 00:21:15,080 --> 00:21:18,800 Tim Settle, who produced a nothing burger 482 00:21:18,800 --> 00:21:21,240 for his two or three seasons in Buffalo 483 00:21:21,240 --> 00:21:24,160 and Del Sean Phillips, an undrafted free agent linebacker 484 00:21:24,160 --> 00:21:26,120 that I don't think ever saw a snap 485 00:21:26,120 --> 00:21:29,000 of real actual game action, also former bills. 486 00:21:29,000 --> 00:21:30,760 What is it about the Houston Texans? 487 00:21:30,760 --> 00:21:34,000 I know that one of our, you know, front office members 488 00:21:34,000 --> 00:21:36,000 was their GM for a hot minute 489 00:21:36,000 --> 00:21:38,240 and then came back to the bills. 490 00:21:38,240 --> 00:21:41,720 Did he just leave a book there on how to pick people? 491 00:21:41,720 --> 00:21:42,840 No idea. 492 00:21:42,840 --> 00:21:44,880 But I do think you mentioned something interesting. 493 00:21:44,880 --> 00:21:48,880 I mean, the Texans like to run a zone heavy scheme. 494 00:21:48,880 --> 00:21:50,920 They like to rush for, they like to drop seven, 495 00:21:50,920 --> 00:21:53,120 though they will blitz more than the bills, 496 00:21:53,120 --> 00:21:55,840 the bills will blitz, but there's a lot of similarities 497 00:21:55,840 --> 00:21:58,440 in scheme, so it makes sense that be looking for a lot 498 00:21:58,440 --> 00:22:01,400 of similar players of that athletic profile for sure. 499 00:22:01,400 --> 00:22:05,760 So just to be clear, you don't think this is a key 500 00:22:05,760 --> 00:22:08,320 on Coleman breakout game, because I have, 501 00:22:08,320 --> 00:22:11,920 I understand the matchups outside with Stingley 502 00:22:11,920 --> 00:22:16,920 and with Lasseter, but just based on what the Texans 503 00:22:17,280 --> 00:22:20,400 like to do and locking down the slot, locking down 504 00:22:20,400 --> 00:22:23,160 tight end positions and forcing stuff to the outside 505 00:22:23,160 --> 00:22:26,040 where they've got those two very potent CBs. 506 00:22:26,040 --> 00:22:28,480 I feel like this has to be a key on Coleman game. 507 00:22:28,480 --> 00:22:31,200 I feel like he's the only one that can be relied on 508 00:22:31,200 --> 00:22:34,640 to win with limited separation on the outside. 509 00:22:36,200 --> 00:22:40,700 I, you know, I agree with you, he won't have separation. 510 00:22:41,960 --> 00:22:44,000 He's not gonna have separation all season. 511 00:22:44,000 --> 00:22:45,000 That's not his game. 512 00:22:45,000 --> 00:22:46,920 Right, he's not gonna have separation. 513 00:22:46,920 --> 00:22:48,480 I agree with you, he's not gonna have separation. 514 00:22:48,480 --> 00:22:52,160 The part I disagree with is that he's going to be, 515 00:22:53,520 --> 00:22:56,040 heads and shoulders above Derek Stingley 516 00:22:56,040 --> 00:22:58,320 and Kamari Lasseter when it comes to the catch point, 517 00:22:58,320 --> 00:23:01,400 because they are not, neither of them is corner, 518 00:23:01,400 --> 00:23:06,200 or a corner who regularly gets bodied or big boyed 519 00:23:06,200 --> 00:23:08,320 at the catch point, which I think that that's, 520 00:23:08,320 --> 00:23:10,520 that's the reason I'm not expecting a huge game 521 00:23:10,520 --> 00:23:13,560 from Keon Coleman unless he finds a way to like, 522 00:23:13,560 --> 00:23:15,760 maybe play from the slot a little bit, 523 00:23:15,760 --> 00:23:19,040 or finds a way to like get behind the defense 524 00:23:19,040 --> 00:23:20,840 when it catches them in a certain kind of look 525 00:23:20,840 --> 00:23:23,160 or catches them in man coverage, 526 00:23:23,160 --> 00:23:25,100 like his touchdown against the Jaguars 527 00:23:25,100 --> 00:23:26,480 where he ran across the field 528 00:23:26,480 --> 00:23:29,320 and that, you know, ended up getting the CBN phase 529 00:23:29,320 --> 00:23:31,120 and just leaving him in the dust. 530 00:23:31,120 --> 00:23:32,560 Unless something like that happens, 531 00:23:32,560 --> 00:23:34,800 I don't see a big Keon Coleman game 532 00:23:34,800 --> 00:23:37,240 just because the outside corners are not, 533 00:23:37,240 --> 00:23:40,400 they're not the type that stand down from somebody who, 534 00:23:41,320 --> 00:23:44,800 they fall victim to people with incredible separation skills. 535 00:23:44,800 --> 00:23:49,360 A la Curtis Samuel, Kalil Shakir, Dalton Gagid, 536 00:23:49,360 --> 00:23:52,600 they tend to absolutely shut down, 537 00:23:53,640 --> 00:23:56,880 you know, contested catch specialists 538 00:23:56,880 --> 00:23:58,880 and people who are, you know, 539 00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:00,760 third down conversion machines 540 00:24:00,760 --> 00:24:03,580 who just, you know, jump up over the top. 541 00:24:03,580 --> 00:24:06,360 We will revisit this at prediction, sure to go wrong. 542 00:24:06,360 --> 00:24:07,480 Absolutely. 543 00:24:07,480 --> 00:24:09,100 Cause it's a prop bet. 544 00:24:10,680 --> 00:24:11,720 Awesome, all right. 545 00:24:11,720 --> 00:24:16,720 JJ factors for the running game against the bills. 546 00:24:16,800 --> 00:24:18,960 Again, we saw in the game against the Ravens 547 00:24:18,960 --> 00:24:22,400 that the bills were knocked off their sequencing 548 00:24:22,400 --> 00:24:25,840 and schedule by just the raw physicality 549 00:24:25,840 --> 00:24:28,360 of the Baltimore Ravens defense 550 00:24:28,360 --> 00:24:30,140 and what they were rolling out there. 551 00:24:30,140 --> 00:24:32,440 This Houston Texans defense, JJ, 552 00:24:32,440 --> 00:24:34,800 not a stout against the run 553 00:24:34,800 --> 00:24:37,680 as the Baltimore Ravens were 554 00:24:37,680 --> 00:24:40,980 when it comes to defending the run as of right now, 555 00:24:40,980 --> 00:24:43,680 the Houston Texans are sitting 556 00:24:43,680 --> 00:24:46,160 at a middling 25th in the league 557 00:24:46,160 --> 00:24:48,680 and defense overall defensive efficiency 558 00:24:48,680 --> 00:24:50,400 when it comes to playing the run. 559 00:24:50,400 --> 00:24:54,240 And they said at 22nd in rush defense DVOA. 560 00:24:54,240 --> 00:24:56,760 Is this a get bet, a get right game, 561 00:24:56,760 --> 00:24:59,480 a get back on the horse game for James Cook, 562 00:24:59,480 --> 00:25:03,320 Ray Davis and the rest of this Buffalo bills rushing attack. 563 00:25:03,320 --> 00:25:05,040 Absolutely it is Dan. 564 00:25:05,040 --> 00:25:06,560 And I can tell you why. 565 00:25:06,560 --> 00:25:11,560 It's because they have Fulorunso Fatoukasi 566 00:25:11,560 --> 00:25:13,840 and Mario Edwards Jr. 567 00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:15,760 And if you're saying to yourself, 568 00:25:15,760 --> 00:25:17,560 I didn't know those were names of people 569 00:25:17,560 --> 00:25:19,000 who played football. 570 00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:21,960 It's because Mario Edwards is a, 571 00:25:21,960 --> 00:25:24,120 he was a second round pick in 2015. 572 00:25:24,120 --> 00:25:26,120 So he's been around the league 573 00:25:26,120 --> 00:25:27,960 and never really lived up to the hype 574 00:25:27,960 --> 00:25:29,360 of a second round status. 575 00:25:29,360 --> 00:25:31,800 He's playing on seven teams. 576 00:25:31,800 --> 00:25:35,520 He is undersized as a defensive tackle. 577 00:25:35,520 --> 00:25:38,360 And so the center of their defensive line 578 00:25:38,360 --> 00:25:39,780 does not have a lot of bulk. 579 00:25:39,780 --> 00:25:43,360 It's Mario Edwards undersized under length. 580 00:25:43,360 --> 00:25:44,320 Tim Settle Jr. 581 00:25:44,320 --> 00:25:47,240 We know what he's like, 6'3", 313 pounds 582 00:25:47,240 --> 00:25:49,680 gets turned out of his gap pretty easily. 583 00:25:49,680 --> 00:25:54,680 And then Fatoukasi who's a, it's round a sixth rounder. 584 00:25:55,060 --> 00:25:56,600 He's 6'4", about 300 pounds. 585 00:25:56,600 --> 00:25:59,080 So he's their biggest defensive lineman. 586 00:25:59,080 --> 00:26:01,280 They're going to struggle 587 00:26:01,280 --> 00:26:03,800 to overcome the physicality of the bills interior 588 00:26:03,800 --> 00:26:06,200 specifically Osiris Torrance. 589 00:26:06,200 --> 00:26:08,760 And so I think that that's an opportunity 590 00:26:08,760 --> 00:26:10,040 that they have here. 591 00:26:10,040 --> 00:26:12,040 And when you look at their ends, 592 00:26:12,040 --> 00:26:15,800 D'Neal Hunter who we both talked about for years 593 00:26:15,800 --> 00:26:17,400 when he was with the Minnesota Vikings 594 00:26:17,400 --> 00:26:18,960 as a trade candidate for the bills 595 00:26:18,960 --> 00:26:21,800 because I think he's just an excellent, excellent player 596 00:26:21,800 --> 00:26:23,080 all around. 597 00:26:23,080 --> 00:26:27,720 If he's one of your duo, double up targets, 598 00:26:27,720 --> 00:26:29,800 he's only 260 pounds. 599 00:26:29,800 --> 00:26:31,000 And then Will Anderson Jr. 600 00:26:31,000 --> 00:26:34,080 I think is an incredibly talented young pass rusher 601 00:26:34,080 --> 00:26:36,920 is not spectacular against the run. 602 00:26:36,920 --> 00:26:39,000 So he is also 240. 603 00:26:39,000 --> 00:26:43,200 So this front, and if we're just talking the front 604 00:26:43,200 --> 00:26:45,520 in a base four three for the Texans 605 00:26:45,520 --> 00:26:48,920 is outmatched physicality and size wise 606 00:26:48,920 --> 00:26:51,000 versus this bills offensive line. 607 00:26:51,000 --> 00:26:53,040 So I think more than a, you know, rushing attack, 608 00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:54,720 running back, get right game. 609 00:26:54,720 --> 00:26:56,800 It is a get right game for the bills offense line 610 00:26:56,800 --> 00:26:59,760 to set the tone because they are bigger 611 00:26:59,760 --> 00:27:02,320 and they have shown to be tougher. 612 00:27:02,320 --> 00:27:06,600 And this team does not stop the run, like say the Ravens 613 00:27:06,600 --> 00:27:09,160 who are number one in the league at it. 614 00:27:09,160 --> 00:27:12,360 Right. And I think along the offensive line, 615 00:27:12,360 --> 00:27:15,920 this is a get it back game for one Spencer Brown 616 00:27:15,920 --> 00:27:18,440 who had a very bad game against Baltimore. 617 00:27:19,640 --> 00:27:23,040 Had not given up a QB pressure all season, 618 00:27:23,040 --> 00:27:27,480 gave up two against Kyle Van Noy 619 00:27:27,480 --> 00:27:32,240 in only 11 attempts where Van Noy lined up 620 00:27:32,240 --> 00:27:35,480 across from Spencer Brown, gave up two sacks, 621 00:27:35,480 --> 00:27:39,160 two total QB hits on top of that and four pressures 622 00:27:39,160 --> 00:27:42,240 and just 11 pass rush snaps for Van Noy. 623 00:27:42,240 --> 00:27:45,240 So Spencer Brown, I think would love to settle in 624 00:27:45,240 --> 00:27:48,280 to a very grating run game 625 00:27:48,280 --> 00:27:51,320 against what is going to be a few aggressive edges 626 00:27:51,320 --> 00:27:52,720 that Houston's going to roll out there 627 00:27:52,720 --> 00:27:54,800 just to kind of get his juju back as well. 628 00:27:54,800 --> 00:27:56,920 Yeah, I think you really need to. 629 00:27:56,920 --> 00:27:59,760 I mean, you need to tire out, you know, 630 00:27:59,760 --> 00:28:01,800 Will Anderson and Denil Hunter. 631 00:28:01,800 --> 00:28:03,720 You need to get those guys off the field 632 00:28:03,720 --> 00:28:06,360 and rotate it out for Jerry Hughes and Derek Barnett, 633 00:28:06,360 --> 00:28:10,400 who are both reasonable, late career, you know, options. 634 00:28:10,400 --> 00:28:12,400 They're just going to have to take advantage. 635 00:28:12,400 --> 00:28:16,000 And if the bill's offensive line struggles 636 00:28:16,000 --> 00:28:18,160 at setting the physical tone 637 00:28:18,160 --> 00:28:22,240 and making the rushing game work against this opponent, 638 00:28:22,240 --> 00:28:25,120 then I think you and I could start ringing all those alarm 639 00:28:25,120 --> 00:28:29,080 bells because it's going to spell problems 640 00:28:29,080 --> 00:28:30,800 against other units for sure. 641 00:28:30,800 --> 00:28:31,800 Yeah, I agree. 642 00:28:31,800 --> 00:28:34,840 This is a more favorable matchup than the names on paper 643 00:28:34,840 --> 00:28:36,560 would lead you to believe 644 00:28:36,560 --> 00:28:39,320 in favor of the Buffalo Bills offensively. 645 00:28:39,320 --> 00:28:41,560 All right, JJ, you want to do some prediction 646 00:28:41,560 --> 00:28:42,720 and sure to go wrong? 647 00:28:42,720 --> 00:28:44,240 Yeah, let's wrap this thing up. 648 00:28:44,240 --> 00:28:46,160 All right, dude, time to land this plane. 649 00:28:46,160 --> 00:28:49,600 So this line actually opened at Bills favored 650 00:28:49,600 --> 00:28:51,600 by two and a half points. 651 00:28:51,600 --> 00:28:53,920 Which I was shocked about. 652 00:28:53,920 --> 00:28:57,400 After that, the egg they laid against the Ravens, 653 00:28:57,400 --> 00:28:59,400 I could not believe that. 654 00:28:59,400 --> 00:29:03,520 But since then, JJ, this line has tightened considerably. 655 00:29:03,520 --> 00:29:05,960 It is now Bills minus one. 656 00:29:05,960 --> 00:29:08,840 And I wouldn't be shocked if by the time we kick off, 657 00:29:08,840 --> 00:29:12,320 this line is like one and a half points 658 00:29:12,320 --> 00:29:15,560 in favor of the Houston Texans. 659 00:29:15,560 --> 00:29:16,800 It's a road game. 660 00:29:16,800 --> 00:29:19,120 The bill's really looking their wounds. 661 00:29:19,120 --> 00:29:21,120 A lot of questions to answer on the issue 662 00:29:21,120 --> 00:29:24,320 and answer on the offensive and defensive side of the ball. 663 00:29:24,320 --> 00:29:28,440 It just feels like this line is going to shift even more. 664 00:29:28,440 --> 00:29:29,520 Over and around this game, 665 00:29:29,520 --> 00:29:33,000 JJ is sitting at 46 and a half points as well. 666 00:29:33,000 --> 00:29:35,360 So why don't you walk us through 667 00:29:35,360 --> 00:29:37,160 what your final score prediction is? 668 00:29:38,520 --> 00:29:41,440 So I think that this, 669 00:29:41,440 --> 00:29:43,720 everybody in Bills mafia wants the bills to come out 670 00:29:43,720 --> 00:29:47,160 and lay a 47 to 10 burger on this game. 671 00:29:47,160 --> 00:29:48,400 I don't think that's going to happen. 672 00:29:48,400 --> 00:29:53,400 I think the likely result is about a 24, 19, 673 00:29:54,000 --> 00:29:56,880 or 24, 21 victory by the Bills. 674 00:29:56,880 --> 00:29:58,280 I do think that they win this one 675 00:29:58,280 --> 00:30:02,800 because exactly how we talked about the Ravens game pregame 676 00:30:02,800 --> 00:30:06,400 as being strength on weakness for the Ravens offense 677 00:30:06,400 --> 00:30:07,720 on the Bills defense 678 00:30:07,720 --> 00:30:12,720 and strength on weakness for the Ravens pass rush 679 00:30:13,040 --> 00:30:16,000 and the Bills offense of, you know, line and production. 680 00:30:16,000 --> 00:30:18,640 I think that what we can say with the Houston game, 681 00:30:18,640 --> 00:30:22,280 this Houston game is that it's Bills strength on weakness 682 00:30:22,280 --> 00:30:23,960 with the rushing attack 683 00:30:23,960 --> 00:30:27,360 and it is Bills strength on weakness 684 00:30:27,360 --> 00:30:29,520 with the pass rush against this offensive line. 685 00:30:29,520 --> 00:30:31,520 And so with that all said, you know, 686 00:30:31,520 --> 00:30:32,560 I do think the Bills win it, 687 00:30:32,560 --> 00:30:35,240 but I do think this is a little bit more of a, 688 00:30:35,240 --> 00:30:36,880 this isn't a four quarter party, 689 00:30:36,880 --> 00:30:39,080 like Monday night was two weeks ago. 690 00:30:39,080 --> 00:30:40,480 This is going to be, you know, 691 00:30:40,480 --> 00:30:44,440 clench your heart medication close Bills mafia 692 00:30:44,440 --> 00:30:46,000 because it's going to be a rough one. 693 00:30:46,000 --> 00:30:46,840 It is. 694 00:30:46,840 --> 00:30:47,680 I think it's going to be a, 695 00:30:47,680 --> 00:30:50,120 it needs to be a workman like performance 696 00:30:50,120 --> 00:30:50,960 out of this offense, 697 00:30:50,960 --> 00:30:52,360 like we've seen before, 698 00:30:53,920 --> 00:30:55,800 dominate time of possession, 699 00:30:55,800 --> 00:30:58,640 really wear down this defensive line in the run game, 700 00:30:58,640 --> 00:31:00,880 open some things up in the pass game 701 00:31:00,880 --> 00:31:03,480 and Keon Coleman has his breakout game. 702 00:31:03,480 --> 00:31:06,480 But before we get to that, final score prediction here. 703 00:31:07,480 --> 00:31:10,360 I am, I'm with you. 704 00:31:10,360 --> 00:31:12,800 I've seen though in some of these workman like road 705 00:31:12,800 --> 00:31:17,800 environments, the Bills put up 30 relatively easily. 706 00:31:18,240 --> 00:31:20,680 I don't know that they're going to hit it against Houston. 707 00:31:20,680 --> 00:31:23,200 Houston's given up some points this year though, man. 708 00:31:23,200 --> 00:31:25,000 Like even to Jacksonville, 709 00:31:25,000 --> 00:31:27,440 who looked absolutely inept against the Bills, 710 00:31:27,440 --> 00:31:29,480 they, that one came down to the wire. 711 00:31:29,480 --> 00:31:30,920 I get it. It's a divisional game. 712 00:31:30,920 --> 00:31:31,920 Those things are weird. 713 00:31:31,920 --> 00:31:33,640 Same thing with Indy, 714 00:31:33,640 --> 00:31:36,720 but like if Sam Darnold hung 34 on this team, 715 00:31:36,720 --> 00:31:39,040 like, can't Josh? 716 00:31:39,040 --> 00:31:41,160 So I'm going to, I'm going to go out on a limb. 717 00:31:41,160 --> 00:31:43,280 I want to say Buffalo Bills 30. 718 00:31:43,280 --> 00:31:46,160 They get back on the 30 point train here on the road. 719 00:31:46,160 --> 00:31:48,800 I want to say Houston Texans 24. 720 00:31:50,160 --> 00:31:51,840 That's respectable. 721 00:31:51,840 --> 00:31:54,200 Yeah, I just think that we have, 722 00:31:54,200 --> 00:31:57,560 we have one of those Bills games in the near future, 723 00:31:57,560 --> 00:31:59,520 where everybody feels kind of icky, 724 00:31:59,520 --> 00:32:00,600 whether they get the win. 725 00:32:00,600 --> 00:32:01,840 And I think this might be it. 726 00:32:01,840 --> 00:32:03,800 Yeah, yeah, no, absolutely. 727 00:32:03,800 --> 00:32:05,160 This is where they're Rick and Morty. 728 00:32:05,160 --> 00:32:06,440 I almost died meme, 729 00:32:06,440 --> 00:32:08,480 tends to show up in Bills mafia internet. 730 00:32:08,480 --> 00:32:09,320 Oh God. 731 00:32:09,320 --> 00:32:11,320 It was so terrible. 732 00:32:11,320 --> 00:32:12,160 Yep, absolutely. 733 00:32:12,160 --> 00:32:13,720 I think that's what's going to happen here. 734 00:32:13,720 --> 00:32:15,520 All right, prop that. 735 00:32:15,520 --> 00:32:18,640 I have one and it's Keon Coleman. 736 00:32:18,640 --> 00:32:21,120 And I have laid this runway for you, sir, 737 00:32:21,120 --> 00:32:23,640 to take the under and I'm ready. 738 00:32:23,640 --> 00:32:28,640 Over under 99.5 receiving yards for one Keon Coleman. 739 00:32:30,840 --> 00:32:32,640 Under, oh my God, under. 740 00:32:32,640 --> 00:32:34,120 He's not going to top 50. 741 00:32:35,040 --> 00:32:35,960 I'm so bad. 742 00:32:35,960 --> 00:32:38,200 I'm so down on Keon Coleman in this matchup. 743 00:32:38,200 --> 00:32:40,360 I have him on one of my fantasy teams. 744 00:32:40,360 --> 00:32:43,680 And I like the moment I looked at the outside corners 745 00:32:43,680 --> 00:32:46,440 that Houston rolls out here in game film, 746 00:32:46,440 --> 00:32:49,120 I was like, yep, Keon Coleman's going on the bench. 747 00:32:51,080 --> 00:32:52,320 I'm taking the over. 748 00:32:52,320 --> 00:32:53,240 I know you are. 749 00:32:53,240 --> 00:32:54,080 I love you. 750 00:32:54,080 --> 00:32:54,920 You're crazy like that. 751 00:32:54,920 --> 00:32:58,080 I'm crazy right now, 752 00:32:58,080 --> 00:33:00,480 but his ability to work the sidelines dude 753 00:33:00,480 --> 00:33:03,960 with limited, giving Josh limited windows. 754 00:33:03,960 --> 00:33:05,680 The fact that Josh has that confidence 755 00:33:05,680 --> 00:33:08,640 that threaded in there for him as well. 756 00:33:08,640 --> 00:33:13,400 I just, and you know, part of me narratively speaking 757 00:33:13,400 --> 00:33:16,200 and vibe speaking, wouldn't it be great 758 00:33:16,200 --> 00:33:19,240 if the guy drafted to replace Stefan Diggs 759 00:33:19,240 --> 00:33:21,640 in the game they played Diggs for the first time 760 00:33:21,640 --> 00:33:23,360 gets his first hundred yard game? 761 00:33:23,360 --> 00:33:25,080 Like you can't make that stuff up. 762 00:33:25,080 --> 00:33:25,920 Oh. 763 00:33:25,920 --> 00:33:26,760 I'm going with vibes. 764 00:33:26,760 --> 00:33:28,200 I'm going with narrative. 765 00:33:28,200 --> 00:33:31,080 Keon Coleman gets his first hundred yard receiving game 766 00:33:31,080 --> 00:33:32,560 and the first hundred yard receiving game 767 00:33:32,560 --> 00:33:36,040 for any bills wide receiver this season against Houston. 768 00:33:36,040 --> 00:33:39,200 Man, I love the Hollywood aspect of that, 769 00:33:40,480 --> 00:33:43,320 but we talk about these things in terms of prop bets. 770 00:33:43,320 --> 00:33:44,520 Like we're putting money on them. 771 00:33:44,520 --> 00:33:46,560 I would never put money on it, but I love it. 772 00:33:46,560 --> 00:33:47,400 I hope it happens. 773 00:33:47,400 --> 00:33:48,440 I hope I'm so wrong. 774 00:33:48,440 --> 00:33:51,320 I may have already done this. 775 00:33:51,320 --> 00:33:53,480 I meant Caesar sports book 776 00:33:53,480 --> 00:33:56,240 may be getting a healthy $10 donation from me. 777 00:33:56,240 --> 00:33:57,080 Awesome. 778 00:33:57,080 --> 00:33:57,920 I'm a very prop bet. 779 00:33:57,920 --> 00:33:58,760 So yeah. 780 00:33:58,760 --> 00:34:02,320 And honestly, if he gets 120 and two tutties, 781 00:34:02,320 --> 00:34:03,280 that'd be the coolest thing. 782 00:34:03,280 --> 00:34:04,720 I mean, you will not, 783 00:34:04,720 --> 00:34:07,720 you won't be able to like throw a stone in any direction 784 00:34:07,720 --> 00:34:10,120 in Western New York and not hit somebody 785 00:34:10,120 --> 00:34:12,320 who's tweeting about how bad Stefan Diggs is 786 00:34:12,320 --> 00:34:14,360 and how good Keon Coleman is. 787 00:34:14,360 --> 00:34:15,200 All right, man. 788 00:34:15,200 --> 00:34:16,480 What's your prop bet? 789 00:34:16,480 --> 00:34:17,320 All right, mine, 790 00:34:17,320 --> 00:34:20,080 because I like to go defense when you go offense, 791 00:34:20,080 --> 00:34:22,880 Cole Bishop plus or minus half an interception. 792 00:34:25,160 --> 00:34:28,320 I mean, you really did lay the groundwork in the pregame 793 00:34:28,320 --> 00:34:31,320 for why Cole Bishop is going to be a non-factor in this game 794 00:34:31,320 --> 00:34:33,040 and might not even see the field. 795 00:34:33,040 --> 00:34:36,000 So I will take the under as well. 796 00:34:36,000 --> 00:34:38,080 So I did too. 797 00:34:38,080 --> 00:34:39,600 But here's my thinking. 798 00:34:39,600 --> 00:34:40,440 Here's why. 799 00:34:40,440 --> 00:34:42,000 Here's why. 800 00:34:42,000 --> 00:34:44,880 I think that the Buffalo Bills, 801 00:34:44,880 --> 00:34:46,920 I would play Mike Edwards, 802 00:34:46,920 --> 00:34:49,280 just like you would play more Khalil Shakir, 803 00:34:49,280 --> 00:34:52,280 just like you would play more Keon Coleman. 804 00:34:52,280 --> 00:34:54,280 The bills showed us who they wanted to play. 805 00:34:54,280 --> 00:34:56,080 Mike Edwards was healthy 806 00:34:56,080 --> 00:34:57,960 and they put Cole Bishop in 807 00:34:57,960 --> 00:35:00,080 the moment Taylor Rapp got a concussion. 808 00:35:00,080 --> 00:35:00,920 Okay. Yeah. 809 00:35:00,920 --> 00:35:02,800 And so this is, again, 810 00:35:02,800 --> 00:35:03,800 this is one of the situations. 811 00:35:03,800 --> 00:35:05,280 It may not be what I would do, 812 00:35:05,280 --> 00:35:07,640 but I think that there's a chance. 813 00:35:07,640 --> 00:35:08,480 I like the kid. 814 00:35:08,480 --> 00:35:10,840 I think he's a good looking safety. 815 00:35:10,840 --> 00:35:14,040 He seems like he's a little bit lost out there right now, 816 00:35:14,040 --> 00:35:16,360 but he does have a nose for the football 817 00:35:16,360 --> 00:35:18,120 and I would love to see that. 818 00:35:18,120 --> 00:35:21,200 So I'm going to go over half an interception 819 00:35:21,200 --> 00:35:22,160 for Cole Bishop. 820 00:35:22,160 --> 00:35:23,240 Nice. I like it. 821 00:35:23,240 --> 00:35:24,840 I hope that works out for you. 822 00:35:24,840 --> 00:35:27,320 Oh man, this is going to be a rough one. 823 00:35:27,320 --> 00:35:29,280 This is going to be a hard game to watch. 824 00:35:29,280 --> 00:35:30,120 It is. 825 00:35:30,120 --> 00:35:32,680 Well, that's exactly the fact. 826 00:35:32,680 --> 00:35:34,840 Both of our props are about rookies performing, 827 00:35:34,840 --> 00:35:36,120 shows how much we have hope 828 00:35:36,120 --> 00:35:37,760 for like the future of this team. 829 00:35:37,760 --> 00:35:39,120 I know, right? 830 00:35:39,120 --> 00:35:40,680 That's actually a really good point. 831 00:35:40,680 --> 00:35:42,160 That's an excellent observation. 832 00:35:42,160 --> 00:35:44,360 Very astute on your part, sir. 833 00:35:44,360 --> 00:35:45,560 All right. Well, listen, 834 00:35:45,560 --> 00:35:47,560 we're going to be sweating it out with you 835 00:35:47,560 --> 00:35:49,200 on Sunday Bills Mafia. 836 00:35:49,200 --> 00:35:51,440 Watching the Buffalo Bills take on 837 00:35:51,440 --> 00:35:54,160 as we have discussed several former Buffalo Bills, 838 00:35:54,160 --> 00:35:57,080 including one Stefan Dakes. 839 00:35:57,080 --> 00:35:59,680 Listen, we'll be there stressing with you, 840 00:35:59,680 --> 00:36:02,040 but hopefully you enjoyed listening to this pod. 841 00:36:02,040 --> 00:36:03,920 And as always, like, share and subscribe 842 00:36:03,920 --> 00:36:05,160 wherever you get your podcast. 843 00:36:05,160 --> 00:36:06,560 Google Apple Spotify. 844 00:36:06,560 --> 00:36:07,760 And as always, go Bills. 845 00:36:07,760 --> 00:36:35,080 depende.com