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Alright, welcome back to the Buffalo Bread Podcast.

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We are recording a rare same day pod.

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Because you know, sometimes life happens and you gotta do things last minute.

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It is September 29th and the Buffalo Bills will be kicking off against the Baltimore

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Ravens in Baltimore, Maryland, later today, about 14 hours away.

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And tell me not to be freaked out by this matchup.

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It's hard not to be, because it's a quality team that has been struggling to start the

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season in Baltimore.

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The Bills look like the most complete team in the NFL right now, which we know when we

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have seen Bills hit a stretch like this, inevitably the good vibes come crashing down.

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J.J. on paper and on the field, this Baltimore team, particularly this offense, is so well

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suited to test the Buffalo Bills in ways they have not been tested, particularly the spine

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of that defense with DeMar Hamlin, Taylor Rapp holding the roof to this house, and then

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our back-up linebackers, Andorian Williams and Bale Inspector.

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The way this Baltimore team wants to play is very well suited to exploiting what we

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have all had a little bit of uneasiness about that level of the defense.

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So J.J. it feels like an opponent that is perfectly well-tuned to exploit what other

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teams have not been able to at this point, and also a quality opponent that just isn't

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as bad as they've been playing for the first three weeks.

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Bundle that all together with a prime-time matchup on the road against the Bills.

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And there I think are reasons to be worried, but J.J. there's also a lot of reasons to

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be confident too.

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Especially in this Buffalo Bills offense, which I can't wait to get into.

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Yeah, and in speaking about teams that were inferior, that the Bills have faced in the

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first three weeks, why don't we do a quick recap of that Jaguars absolute throttling

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on Monday night this past week?

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The curse has been lifted.

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The curse has been lifted.

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They no longer are the foil to a good Bills team because the Bills saw an inferior opponent

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and played an almost perfect game to a really once and for all put to bed that the Jaguars

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have some sort of curse or hex over them.

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It was a clinic.

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They scored them.

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The Bills scored touchdowns on their first five possessions, or they scored on their first

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five possessions.

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And Josh Allen was just dishing all first half.

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They barely had to play in the second half because they were up 31 points at the break

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and did not slow down from there.

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So a 47 to 10 victory felt like the perfect game that you and I attended against the Patriots

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and the playoffs where nothing could go wrong.

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The defense could not stop the Buffalo Bills.

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The Jaguars weirdly chose to just stay in man coverage, even though throughout his career,

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Josh Allen has proved time and time again that that is a recipe for disaster for your

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defensive team and efforts against him.

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It was their stubbornness not just to stay in man, which is their core scheme in Jacksonville,

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but in the face of A, Josh shredding it, but B, all the defensive backfield injuries they

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suffered throughout the course of that game too.

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It really was mind boggling.

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I think the Jaguars JJ are a team and when you break down all the numbers and when you

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watch the film, they're just a team that is disjointed.

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And I hate to say this because I'm not a coach, but they're poorly coached.

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It looks like like their communication in the secondary blown coverages, guys being

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passed off in the limited amount they played zone with no help over the top.

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Like it just seems a unit that right now is trying to figure out.

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It's got these pieces that look good on paper, but it is not meshed on the field at all offensively

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or defensively.

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And that is a team that I don't know that they get right under this current coaching

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staff because you would expect that they are better than what they're putting out in the

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field.

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But time after time, going all the way back to last season and that epic second half of

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the season collapse they had, you just wonder if there is a lingering residue, be it with

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the players still on the roster or the way this team is being coached, there's really

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holding that Jacksonville team back.

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But JJ, that shouldn't take away from the Buffalo Bills performance on both sides of

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the ball, but particularly the offense.

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JJ, Josh Allen, we all know is having an MVP season at this point and how far the Bills

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go will be predicted specifically on how well he continues to play this year.

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But JJ, all the trend lines are pointing up for Josh.

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He has seemed to have found a new gear to his game, completing 10 passes to 10 different

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pass catchers in the first half of that game alone against Jacksonville.

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But we've said this a couple of times and we'll say it again, it's his time to throw.

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His time to throw over the first three games this season has been 2.76 seconds.

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That is the fastest time to throw for any, any three game stretch of Josh's career.

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And if this trend line continues, it will be as fast as time to throw by a country mile

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and is in his career all time.

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So Josh is making quick decisions.

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Joe Brady, you know, and I've heard a lot of media say Joe Brady is giving up easy stuff

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for Josh.

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I don't know that it's easy, but he's giving Josh a lot of options and he's giving Josh

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a lot of second reaction options as well, particularly in the intermediate parts of

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the field.

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A lot, you know, Mel Kuiper having his meltdown this week about too high coverage needing to

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be banned in the league.

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And yes, there could be struggling against too high, but Josh isn't.

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And Josh isn't simply a check down Charlie against cover two, cover four or cover six.

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He is actually attacking the intermediate parts of the field with more success than at

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any other point in his career against those two high safety schemes or those rotational

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cover four, cover six schemes.

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Josh's average area yards per completion JJ is 10 yards.

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He's attacking the sticks in the intermediate parts of the field.

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And at the second level at a rate that no other QB, including Patrick Mahomes has figured

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out how to do against some of these zone looks.

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So JJ, it's not that just Josh is getting the ball out quicker.

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His decision making is better.

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And he's exploiting areas of the field that he hasn't before in the passing game.

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And that makes this an exceptionally difficult Buffalo Bills defense to cover, especially

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when you play man as much as the Jacksonville Jaguars did and as much as the Baltimore Ravens

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like to do.

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Oh, absolutely.

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And I think that once you add the, you know, the running components of this offense, the

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fact that this the offensive line is off to its best start, we've seen in Josh Allen's

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entire career.

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They are their physical, their tone setting, both in the run and pass protection.

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They've been keeping him clean.

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I think if he goes without getting sacked this, this upcoming week, he'll set some sort

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of NFL record for consecutive, you know, starter quarterback snaps without being sacked.

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And it's, it's kind of wild how good the offensive line has been.

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And I think that's where it all starts.

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You know, leave it to me again, of course, Dan, to point, point back to the big guys

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up front in the trenches as the, the sole source of all success for this team.

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Of course, Josh Allen dishing it is, is the story of the year, but he wouldn't get very

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far nor would these running backs were enjoying lead, lead, league leading numbers in terms

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of yards before contact on almost every rush snap.

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So it's a, it's a good season for the offensive line.

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I think that, you know, they looked strong against a relatively solid Jaguars defensive

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front, but, you know, nothing to compare and we'll get into the Ravens game, nothing to

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compare to the defense they're about to face today.

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And I do think also just kind of one more note on the offense is that what we're seeing

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is this everybody eats only works if all of the past catching options Josh Allen has are

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dependably where they should be.

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And I believe that if they tried this approach in prior years while Diggs was there, you

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know, and Beasley, John Brown, various others, I don't know that it would work because I

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think that the, the real gem of the off season was that the front office assembled a team

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of past catchers drafting Keon Coleman, Coleman picking up Curtis Amill picking up Matt Hollins.

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And I think maybe dependability was number one on that shopping list.

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Dependability, reliability, team guys, I think that they went with a different approach to

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building out this room.

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And because of it, he, he has those options.

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Josh Allen has those options.

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Dan when he's passing because he doesn't have anybody who's playing off script.

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He doesn't have anybody who is unreliably, you know, outside their comfort zone with

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a route tree.

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He doesn't have anybody who just cannot be counted on to break from man coverage or cannot

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be counted on to find a soft spot in the zone.

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He's really, you know, he's spinning that spin it out there because one, I think Joe Brady

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is planning smart, schemed plays and to Josh Allen is able to distribute it to locations

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that he can count on a guy being.

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I think the other piece if just talking about scheme difference between Joe Brady and the

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previous offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey is that there's no more.

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I don't remember how many times we saw last year before Ken Dorsey was canned.

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Gabe Davis and Stefan Diggs in the same area, Gabe Davis and Khalil Shakir, like running

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basically the same route in the same zone because so much of that offense was built on wide receivers

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running option routes based on on the fly reads of coverage.

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Josh Allen throwing the spots on the field that he believed the wide receivers are going

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to choose to move to.

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I think this year and you can definitely see it.

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Joe Brady has, has these routes on their lockdown, right?

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Like there's way less option routes.

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I think that he probably provides Dalton concaid a little bit more flexibility, maybe Khalil

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Shakir.

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But if if so, it's one, one route runner per play that gets to choose where they are on

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the field, not like the Ken Dorsey offense where it's everybody sort of free for all

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trying to like figure out and dissect the defensive coverage and change routes on the

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fly.

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Well, and the result has been way better spacing in route combinations as well, which has also

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kept defenses very, very honest.

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I mean, how many of those routes last season where would we look at film and there'd be

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three pass catchers in exactly the same spot ending their routes in the same location.

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And those would, oh, those players would always end in the same way.

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There are three guys with four defenders sitting around them.

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Josh has nowhere to go.

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So he's got to scramble.

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He's got to improvise something.

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There is a lot more structure, I think, to this Joe Brady offense that is designed to

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manipulate the defense at every level that they have defenders at.

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And I think it's worked really, really well.

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I mean, and you've got guys that not you've got guys that I think I don't want to say they

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do a lot of the same things because that wouldn't be true.

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But you have guys that are to your point good at what they need to do.

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Chris Brout running on time releases, knowing the location of the routes need to end and

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then in here and concave guys that can improvise if Josh needs to break the pocket and scramble

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and buy a little bit of time as well.

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It's just JJ when you add the variety of pass catchers that this offense has at its disposal

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to the strength of the run game and the strength of the offensive line.

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This feels like an offense that is so well tuned to take on modern NFL defenses where

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they play light boxes, they play too high coverage, they play a lot of zone, they don't

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want to play a lot of base defense of 4-3 or 3-4.

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It feels like an offense that is so supremely well made for the moment.

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And then add to the fact that you have an alien Tonka truck and Josh Allen under center

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as well who can make plays that very few other quarterbacks in the league can make under

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center.

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I mean, it just seems like a sustainable recipe for success and not a flash in the pan.

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Now, when Jacksonville eventually did go to zone coverage at the end of that game, the

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bills still had some success, but it wasn't as much success as they had against man.

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But at that point, the game was out of reach.

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And you got to think that the bills, because of all the defenses that Josh Allen has seen

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in his career and the way that Brady is using the players and creating the playbook for each

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of these games.

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And if you haven't checked out that article by Tim Graham and the Athletic, highly recommended

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to all of our listeners, the process Brady goes through weekend and week out to involve

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the players in creating each game script and each playbook each week is really fascinating.

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When you get players to buy in on that way and you've got the talent assembled on the

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roster and you do, it feels like a very sustainable recipe for success, JJ.

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But it is a recipe that's going to be tested over the next three weeks against Baltimore

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tonight, Houston next week, and then the New York Jets in prime time, three road games

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back to back.

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We're going to see how well this offense travels against those three really quality teams.

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Yeah, certainly there is that that component having the bills play two of their first three

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of these three wins at home.

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So seeing how the next three are on the road is really going to, especially with communication,

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I think that's the biggest thing is so much of offenses about everybody being on the same

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page and in hostile road environments, it is difficult to communicate.

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And so if this offense can get out to hot starts and take a crowd out of it in these

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stadiums, I think that that's that's their best recipe for success.

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Let's flip over to the defensive side of the ball to talk about, you know, briefly the

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Jaguars game and then maybe once that's through, we can transition into sort of our preview

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thoughts on the Baltimore Ravens.

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Defensively I think that, you know, we talked last week, how exciting it is to see that

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players like Dorian William, Bale Inspector, Jomarcus Ingram and Cam Lewis have been able

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to step up for injuries and sort of fill in in not just ways of being appreciable backups,

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but rather, you know, outstanding starters impact players on this defense, which nobody

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I think expected if you had told me preseason that by week three, by week four, our starting

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linebackers would be Bale Inspector and Dorian Williams and that Taryn Johnson would be

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out on a somewhat long time injury.

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I would probably suspect that the team was one and two, just because that's such a massive

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part of the defense.

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But this defense against the Jaguars, they I mean, five different people had sacks on

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Trevor Lawrence.

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I know that Trevor Lawrence is particularly sackable, but it was still notable how quickly

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they were beating the line, how much pressure they had on him throughout the day.

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I was very happy to see Javon Solomon, who we've talked about as being sort of a sneaky,

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sneaky good value late in the draft, getting not just a sack, but a sack strip fumble that

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Casey tool ended up picking up.

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Casey tool was credited with a sack.

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A Jepanese got one.

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Von Miller is on a three game sack streak right now.

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And then of course, DeMar Hamlin, who again, if you would have told me beginning of training

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camp or over the summer, that the starting, the starting pair of safeties was DeMar Hamlin

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and Taylor wrap, I would, I would be concerned that the bills were in trouble defensively.

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And I think that DeMar Hamlin gave up, you know, a couple of things here and there, but

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in a 47 to 10 victory that that's nitpicking at that point.

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But he did get an interception on Monday night football after what had happened to him against

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the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday night football two years ago, sort of it was a poetic moment.

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And you could tell that the whole team was very much excited and very yoked up for that

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moment.

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Absolutely.

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JJ.

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And in addition to some of the defensive line play, I think that we saw that was so good.

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These corners dude, I mean, Benford Douglas, they're absolutely locked down in any situation

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want to put them in.

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Benford in particular, his play, his technique, coupled with his physicality when he needs

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to be physical, and his, his desire to create turnovers as well.

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I mean, this dude, should he stay healthy this season feels like he is the bills future

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CB one moving forward.

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I mean, I just watched, I just got done watching about 70% of his snaps against Jacksonville.

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And he was on Brian Thomas Jr. for a fair amount of the game.

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And that dude's a burner, right for everything that's going wrong with Jacksonville's offense

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this year.

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Brian Thomas Jr. has worked and he's worked in flashing in cutting routes across the middle

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intermediate parts of the field.

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He's been a reliable deep threat for them.

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And Benford just his technique, his athleticism, just absolutely locked that dude down kept

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him from taking the roof off the defense and exploiting the safeties really forced him

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using a lot of great inside and outside leverage really forced Thomas's routes where he wanted

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them to go and never bet on any of the route fakes or double moves that Thomas was throwing

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out there.

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He's so disciplined, Benford.

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He's so skillful and the way he approaches this and it shows up in the numbers too.

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I think the QBR for opposing QBs when they're throwing to Benford is sitting at 37 right

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now.

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I mean, it's getting to a point where you almost don't want to test the part of the

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field that Benford is is on.

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And I would dare say this knowing that Saas Gardner and DJ Reed also are in the AFC East.

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I would say that the Buffalo Bills and Rizul Douglas and Christian Benford might have

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the best cornerbacking duo in the division at this point.

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And it showed up for sure in that Jacksonville game.

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I'd agree with that completely.

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And I think that, you know, Benford and Douglas that one of the things that, you know, I think

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their cover is excellent as you pointed out their coverage.

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But the thing that I think will be most valuable for this team in the way it likes to play

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football is that since they're so zone heavy, Benford and Douglas are so physical in coming

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up and fitting the run and shutting down screens and shutting down kind of like those wide receiver

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flares and quick, quick throws to the outside, really with a too high shell, if a team cannot

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throw over the top on you and they cannot hit the hit the kind of flares to the to the

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perimeter, the only option they have is to throw into the heart of the defense, right

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up the seam.

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And with too high coverage that that's middle open, you should be able to hit the seam.

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But because the linebacking core for those bills team is so athletic, Dan, it it's it

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makes it difficult to not have traffic and clutter in the seam, even if you know your

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safety, your safeties aren't providing that kind of central zone like you would in a cover

281
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three shell or in a single high safety look.

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So I think that that's one of the pieces to is that the corners having their eyes in the

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00:20:46,800 --> 00:20:52,080
backfield being so quick to trigger come downhill and shut things down on the perimeter

284
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has really changed the scope for the teams that the bills are facing.

285
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When they try to plan this offense, oftentimes it comes down to we need somebody to beat

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somebody.

287
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We need somebody to like absolutely have a lockdown block.

288
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We need somebody to excel in that one on one battle.

289
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And more often than not for the bills, thankfully, you know, it's the bills defensive player

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00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:17,440
that's coming out on top of those matchups.

291
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Absolutely, and that's been the case for the first three weeks now.

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One would argue, and I think this is a reasonable argument that the Buffalo bills have not exactly

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00:21:27,720 --> 00:21:32,880
played three great teams over the course of the first three weeks.

294
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I think they've played some in balance teams.

295
00:21:35,560 --> 00:21:38,880
I think Arizona, I think Arizona's got a top 10 offense.

296
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I think when we look back at that Arizona game, we're going to feel so good about the

297
00:21:43,360 --> 00:21:48,320
way that game script played out because Arizona's offense is scary and they can beat teams in

298
00:21:48,320 --> 00:21:50,600
a variety of different ways.

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00:21:50,600 --> 00:21:56,480
The Miami game, I mean, listen, we said this, it's a known opponent that McDermott knows

300
00:21:56,480 --> 00:22:00,160
how to scheme for with a really bad offensive line.

301
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And then Jacksonville, again, I don't wish anybody to lose their job.

302
00:22:04,680 --> 00:22:08,360
I think that's just like mean sports podcasting.

303
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What I wouldn't be shocked if Peterson is our first in-year firing should Jacksonville

304
00:22:15,680 --> 00:22:17,040
not turn it around.

305
00:22:17,040 --> 00:22:22,280
So these are three teams, one in balance, two that look like they're in the throes of

306
00:22:22,280 --> 00:22:24,520
a year from hell.

307
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You could argue the bills have not really been tested yet by a truly, fully complete

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team.

309
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Enter the Baltimore Ravens, JJ, here tonight.

310
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This is a squad that has high expectations coming into this year, has had a lot of roster

311
00:22:40,600 --> 00:22:46,000
turnover, particularly on the offensive line that has kept them from really getting off

312
00:22:46,000 --> 00:22:47,600
to a big start.

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They are in a competitive division in the AFC North that right now is being led by the

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00:22:53,040 --> 00:22:58,960
Pittsburgh Steelers, a team that everyone feels like is gettable at this point.

315
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And add to the fact that you've got the Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns in there that

316
00:23:02,320 --> 00:23:06,120
are absolutely floundering to start the season.

317
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You feel like even though it's only week four, Baltimore is going to come out with some playoff

318
00:23:11,400 --> 00:23:16,520
urgency here to close the gap with Pittsburgh and try to put away Cleveland and Cincinnati

319
00:23:16,520 --> 00:23:18,120
in the first quarter of the season.

320
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And as a result of that, I feel like the bills are going to face not just their first complete

321
00:23:23,200 --> 00:23:27,560
team on the road here that they face this season, but they're also going to face a team

322
00:23:27,560 --> 00:23:30,720
that's playing with a lot of urgency, JJ.

323
00:23:30,720 --> 00:23:32,720
Yeah, absolutely.

324
00:23:32,720 --> 00:23:38,360
And not only a lot of urgency, but a team that has most recently played at home and lost

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to what some would argue is one of the one of the worst rosters in the league in the

326
00:23:43,400 --> 00:23:46,360
Oakland or I'm sorry, he lost Vegas Raiders.

327
00:23:46,360 --> 00:23:49,840
Wow, what I went to two iterations of the Raiders backwards.

328
00:23:49,840 --> 00:23:52,360
I still call the the Chargers San Diego sometimes.

329
00:23:52,360 --> 00:23:54,400
Yeah, don't even worry about it.

330
00:23:54,400 --> 00:23:58,360
So the the Las Vegas Raiders came to town two weeks ago.

331
00:23:58,360 --> 00:24:03,960
And I rewatched I watched the the chiefs Ravens game live.

332
00:24:03,960 --> 00:24:12,200
I watched the and then just just this week I rewatched the Raiders Ravens and the Ravens

333
00:24:12,200 --> 00:24:13,200
Cowboys.

334
00:24:13,200 --> 00:24:16,360
And there's a couple of things that I came away with.

335
00:24:16,360 --> 00:24:21,640
I agree that this is the biggest test that bills have seen both sides of the ball defensively,

336
00:24:21,640 --> 00:24:26,000
offensively, both units are going to be challenged, even special teams are going to be challenged

337
00:24:26,000 --> 00:24:31,080
more this week than they have been in any of the first three weeks.

338
00:24:31,080 --> 00:24:36,200
I think the Ravens defense, there's all these, you know, memes and things going around of

339
00:24:36,200 --> 00:24:40,480
all the Ravens defense is 30 second in the league and past defense.

340
00:24:40,480 --> 00:24:45,800
That is such an artificially inflated stat right now because it's based on yardage.

341
00:24:45,800 --> 00:24:51,720
And they have led in, I think, every one of their games at some point, the chiefs game

342
00:24:51,720 --> 00:24:55,920
is the only one exception where they didn't have a big lead at different points in the

343
00:24:55,920 --> 00:24:56,920
game.

344
00:24:56,920 --> 00:24:59,960
So the other teams that they've been facing have been forced to pass to try to get back

345
00:24:59,960 --> 00:25:01,600
into it.

346
00:25:01,600 --> 00:25:09,440
And because of that, they're just seeing a prevalence of likely, you know, also their

347
00:25:09,440 --> 00:25:14,720
rushing stat is one of the best top three rush defense in the league against the run

348
00:25:14,720 --> 00:25:20,560
is also probably inflated a little bit unfairly because teams are behind early, having to

349
00:25:20,560 --> 00:25:22,800
feel like they have to pass to get back into it.

350
00:25:22,800 --> 00:25:25,320
And so they're throwing the ball all over the yard.

351
00:25:25,320 --> 00:25:31,640
That being said, this Ravens defense, if it doesn't get home with its blitz or its front

352
00:25:31,640 --> 00:25:36,160
four organically, they are in trouble on the back end.

353
00:25:36,160 --> 00:25:40,360
And the reason the reason they are is because they tend to send extra pressure.

354
00:25:40,360 --> 00:25:42,480
They're pretty blitz heavy scheme.

355
00:25:42,480 --> 00:25:46,840
They send a lot of guys and those guys tend to get home.

356
00:25:46,840 --> 00:25:49,240
They have good pressure rates numbers.

357
00:25:49,240 --> 00:25:52,480
They have good EPA per play when blitzing.

358
00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:58,760
They have only, you know, they don't have as many sacks as the bills, but I think they

359
00:25:58,760 --> 00:26:00,440
are better pressure rate right now.

360
00:26:00,440 --> 00:26:04,480
So it's it's a difficult defensive front for the bills.

361
00:26:04,480 --> 00:26:07,080
It's going to be the biggest test for this offensive line.

362
00:26:07,080 --> 00:26:09,720
And then they also fit the run very well.

363
00:26:09,720 --> 00:26:13,280
I mentioned that their rush defense numbers are probably inflated because teams tend to

364
00:26:13,280 --> 00:26:16,040
abandon the run one behind on the scoreboard.

365
00:26:16,040 --> 00:26:17,560
It all works together.

366
00:26:17,560 --> 00:26:23,440
Every football the same way the bills pass defensive stats, you know, tend to get a little

367
00:26:23,440 --> 00:26:28,360
bit higher at different times of the year because this is just a good coach team.

368
00:26:28,360 --> 00:26:31,440
They're they're well, well organized.

369
00:26:31,440 --> 00:26:33,920
They are they're fiery.

370
00:26:33,920 --> 00:26:35,000
They float to the ball.

371
00:26:35,000 --> 00:26:36,880
They tend to like gang tackle.

372
00:26:36,880 --> 00:26:38,360
They're raking at it.

373
00:26:38,360 --> 00:26:42,280
The defensive backs are well coached in terms of trying to always punch at the ball.

374
00:26:42,280 --> 00:26:44,680
So they've been able to force some turnovers.

375
00:26:44,680 --> 00:26:49,440
I think they have a few gems on the defense when it comes to their coverage unit.

376
00:26:49,440 --> 00:26:55,920
I think Kyle Hamilton's an absolute star coming out of Notre Dame a couple of years ago.

377
00:26:55,920 --> 00:27:01,520
I think that Marlon Humphrey, of course, was the cornerback who won the defensive rookie

378
00:27:01,520 --> 00:27:04,800
the year over Treadabuse White the season that they were both rookies.

379
00:27:04,800 --> 00:27:05,800
Is that right?

380
00:27:05,800 --> 00:27:09,720
I believe I think you're I know I'm going to be in Lattimore.

381
00:27:09,720 --> 00:27:10,720
No, you're right.

382
00:27:10,720 --> 00:27:11,720
It was March on Lattimore.

383
00:27:11,720 --> 00:27:12,720
Yeah.

384
00:27:12,720 --> 00:27:15,920
And three of them all were out at the same time.

385
00:27:15,920 --> 00:27:23,560
Calvin Neu is has like a career resurgence on this team, specifically with twists, stunts

386
00:27:23,560 --> 00:27:26,080
and blitzing.

387
00:27:26,080 --> 00:27:29,840
And so I think that, you know, I could go on.

388
00:27:29,840 --> 00:27:30,840
There's so many.

389
00:27:30,840 --> 00:27:36,160
There's so many dangerous, you know, they brought back Namdi Madabuki.

390
00:27:36,160 --> 00:27:43,440
They have Odafe Owe, who's been absolutely dangerous off the edge, Roquan Smith, of course,

391
00:27:43,440 --> 00:27:48,680
one of the best linebackers in the league with Patrick Queen leaving Trenton Simpson

392
00:27:48,680 --> 00:27:52,680
has replaced him and has been a noticeable step down.

393
00:27:52,680 --> 00:27:58,040
But I mean, this this defensive backfield is just like there's there's guys all over

394
00:27:58,040 --> 00:27:59,680
who can make impacts.

395
00:27:59,680 --> 00:28:03,400
And I think that that's the thing that the bills have not seen.

396
00:28:03,400 --> 00:28:10,400
They've seen multiple teams up to this point who have one, maybe two, you know, stud standouts

397
00:28:10,400 --> 00:28:12,560
on defense.

398
00:28:12,560 --> 00:28:15,280
This team is pretty much packed.

399
00:28:15,280 --> 00:28:17,640
Best defensive roster they're going to they're going to see.

400
00:28:17,640 --> 00:28:19,520
Oh, yeah, absolutely.

401
00:28:19,520 --> 00:28:25,360
I mean, I would even put it above New York, who we're going to face in a couple of weeks.

402
00:28:25,360 --> 00:28:28,920
But JJ, you know, it's interesting you bring up the Josh Allen against the Blitz because

403
00:28:28,920 --> 00:28:34,440
the Ravens, you know, when in doubt have sent extra pressure when their organic pressure

404
00:28:34,440 --> 00:28:39,160
rate has not been generating the types of outcomes that's wanted to.

405
00:28:39,160 --> 00:28:42,160
I mean, listen, the book on Josh Allen is you can't blitz him.

406
00:28:42,160 --> 00:28:48,480
Now last season, we saw teams try to do some timely blitz packages against Josh and it

407
00:28:48,480 --> 00:28:49,720
tended to work.

408
00:28:49,720 --> 00:28:54,520
And I think it worked less when Brady took over and more when Dorsey took over.

409
00:28:54,520 --> 00:28:57,200
So there's some skew to the stats from last season.

410
00:28:57,200 --> 00:29:00,880
But overall, Josh has been great against the Blitz in his career.

411
00:29:00,880 --> 00:29:04,920
In this season, he has faced a Blitz package.

412
00:29:04,920 --> 00:29:09,760
So an extra rusher coming free on 21 dropbacks this season.

413
00:29:09,760 --> 00:29:16,400
And JJ, he's completed 15 of 21 passes for five TDs, no interceptions and a pass rate

414
00:29:16,400 --> 00:29:18,200
of 144.

415
00:29:18,200 --> 00:29:23,160
His yards per per air attempt are at 10.3.

416
00:29:23,160 --> 00:29:26,880
And his EPA per dropback is over a full point.

417
00:29:26,880 --> 00:29:30,360
Josh is still decimating the Blitz.

418
00:29:30,360 --> 00:29:34,240
And if you're Baltimore, what that tells me is that you're going to have to rely on some

419
00:29:34,240 --> 00:29:38,040
of this individual talent to help you come through if you're going to shut down what

420
00:29:38,040 --> 00:29:42,000
has been a steamroller of a Buffalo Bills offense.

421
00:29:42,000 --> 00:29:44,680
Well, and I yeah, absolutely.

422
00:29:44,680 --> 00:29:50,720
I know that Blitzing Josh Allen throughout his career has not been a good idea.

423
00:29:50,720 --> 00:29:56,400
The reason I worry a little bit about it is because because of those individual standout

424
00:29:56,400 --> 00:30:01,560
stars that Baltimore has on defense, there I think there's more of a likelihood that

425
00:30:01,560 --> 00:30:08,880
Josh Allen evading a Blitz might make some mistakes because they're very, very, you know,

426
00:30:08,880 --> 00:30:11,800
they take advantage of mistakes very well on this team.

427
00:30:11,800 --> 00:30:12,800
And they always have.

428
00:30:12,800 --> 00:30:17,560
I mean, you don't get to be the number one defense last year and the number one scene

429
00:30:17,560 --> 00:30:20,920
and have the best record of the entire league without some of that skill.

430
00:30:20,920 --> 00:30:25,600
I think that their defensive coaching staff was absolutely gutted by people leaving to

431
00:30:25,600 --> 00:30:28,440
be DCs and head coaches elsewhere.

432
00:30:28,440 --> 00:30:34,720
They've got a first time play caller and coordinator and that talent has also taken a little bit

433
00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:37,800
of a hit with people leaving in free agency.

434
00:30:37,800 --> 00:30:43,720
But I think all in all, this is a dangerous team and I'm not.

435
00:30:43,720 --> 00:30:46,160
I'm not excited to see them Blitzing Josh Allen.

436
00:30:46,160 --> 00:30:50,000
I actually am a little bit worried that we're going to see some cracks in Josh Allen's early

437
00:30:50,000 --> 00:30:54,720
season armor when it comes to his efficient delivery of the ball.

438
00:30:54,720 --> 00:31:02,640
I think the real test comes down to bull Joe Brady, you know, doing his job of studying

439
00:31:02,640 --> 00:31:07,800
the film and coming up with quick, easy answers for Josh Allen against the Blitz and then

440
00:31:07,800 --> 00:31:13,480
also on Josh Allen to avoid his his somewhat natural tendencies of the sugar high Josh

441
00:31:13,480 --> 00:31:18,800
moments and trying to, you know, hurdle every defender and throw a ball 100 yards.

442
00:31:18,800 --> 00:31:22,640
No, I think that's a very viable concern.

443
00:31:22,640 --> 00:31:28,080
I'm, you know, I'm less worried, JJ, about Josh facing the Blitz because I just don't

444
00:31:28,080 --> 00:31:32,640
know that there's a Blitz package he hasn't seen up until this point.

445
00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:37,400
But to your earlier point about the talent and the defensive backfield, I am worried

446
00:31:37,400 --> 00:31:43,400
about Baltimore's ability to shut down the run because defensively, they have been a

447
00:31:43,400 --> 00:31:46,240
group that has been very effective against the run.

448
00:31:46,240 --> 00:31:53,200
They're a top five unit and defensive rush stop win rate and also in rushing defense

449
00:31:53,200 --> 00:31:55,080
stop efficiency.

450
00:31:55,080 --> 00:31:57,840
So this is a group now granted they played Dallas.

451
00:31:57,840 --> 00:32:00,000
Dallas doesn't really like to run the ball.

452
00:32:00,000 --> 00:32:03,480
They played Oakland who we talked or freaking there I go, I did it.

453
00:32:03,480 --> 00:32:04,840
They played, thanks man.

454
00:32:04,840 --> 00:32:09,840
They played Las Vegas who doesn't have an awesome rushing attack.

455
00:32:09,840 --> 00:32:15,080
And then in week one, they played Kansas City who was able to, I think, make some hay with

456
00:32:15,080 --> 00:32:20,520
Pachinko while he was healthy, but not, I think, the strides of the chiefs that hoped

457
00:32:20,520 --> 00:32:22,600
that run game would take.

458
00:32:22,600 --> 00:32:26,680
If the numbers play out and granted, they're a little bit highly skewed because it's only

459
00:32:26,680 --> 00:32:28,520
three weeks.

460
00:32:28,520 --> 00:32:35,280
This is the game JJ, where I feel like we're going to see a defensive unit shut down in

461
00:32:35,280 --> 00:32:36,400
a meaningful way.

462
00:32:36,400 --> 00:32:42,020
The Buffalo Bills organic run game, their standard running back run game.

463
00:32:42,020 --> 00:32:46,640
And this is going to be the game where we've got to see if this Buffalo Bills offense can

464
00:32:46,640 --> 00:32:48,600
take the top off of a defense.

465
00:32:48,600 --> 00:32:54,000
We're going to see, I think, Baltimore condense in and I think we're going to see them leave

466
00:32:54,000 --> 00:32:58,920
some openings in the deep part of the field, which, listen, Baltimore has not been great

467
00:32:58,920 --> 00:33:04,520
despite those names in the defensive backfield in overall passing defense.

468
00:33:04,520 --> 00:33:08,880
The yardage metric that you mentioned is absolutely skewed at this point.

469
00:33:08,880 --> 00:33:13,320
I mean, Dallas last week just stopped running the ball when they were down so behind and

470
00:33:13,320 --> 00:33:15,160
they were just chucking it up in the second half.

471
00:33:15,160 --> 00:33:20,360
I think they ran single digits and actual rush plays against Baltimore in the second

472
00:33:20,360 --> 00:33:23,600
half of that game just to throw their way back into it.

473
00:33:23,600 --> 00:33:25,920
So yes, that metric is skewed.

474
00:33:25,920 --> 00:33:30,800
But when you look at the splits, this is a team that struggled to defend the intermediate

475
00:33:30,800 --> 00:33:35,560
and deep parts of the field, despite some of the names they have in the backfield.

476
00:33:35,560 --> 00:33:40,160
So if the Buffalo Bills are going to have success and if Baltimore is going to shut

477
00:33:40,160 --> 00:33:46,200
down this potent Buffalo run game like I think they might, this is going to be the game JJ

478
00:33:46,200 --> 00:33:50,760
that we've been waiting for where the Joe Brady scheme gets tested and he gets an opportunity

479
00:33:50,760 --> 00:33:56,480
to answer the question, when they take away the short parts of the field, can you exploit

480
00:33:56,480 --> 00:33:59,360
the intermediate and deep parts of the field?

481
00:33:59,360 --> 00:34:03,800
And I think based on what we saw against Jacksonville who did a reasonable job against James Cook

482
00:34:03,800 --> 00:34:08,440
in the rush game, I think Brady is going to surprise us with the amount of answers he

483
00:34:08,440 --> 00:34:09,440
has.

484
00:34:09,440 --> 00:34:13,080
And I think Josh, dude, Josh is just so locked in right now.

485
00:34:13,080 --> 00:34:17,600
I feel like this is the moment we've been waiting for to see if this scheme really holds up.

486
00:34:17,600 --> 00:34:20,400
And JJ, we'll get to this in prediction, sure to go wrong.

487
00:34:20,400 --> 00:34:26,120
I don't think either of these defenses is going to be really good at stopping the opposing

488
00:34:26,120 --> 00:34:30,200
offense just because of the way each of these units is built.

489
00:34:30,200 --> 00:34:34,440
It feels like strength on weakness for both sets of units.

490
00:34:34,440 --> 00:34:39,000
I feel like this game script is going to play out a lot like that Arizona game script played

491
00:34:39,000 --> 00:34:42,720
out where we're going to be in shootout territory before we know it.

492
00:34:42,720 --> 00:34:45,120
Yeah, I think you're right.

493
00:34:45,120 --> 00:34:50,880
And that's a good time to kind of flip and look at the Ravens offense versus the Bill's

494
00:34:50,880 --> 00:34:58,120
defense because I do agree that this is going to be the best run stopping defense the Bills

495
00:34:58,120 --> 00:34:59,120
have faced.

496
00:34:59,120 --> 00:35:02,160
They are going to have to come up with different ways.

497
00:35:02,160 --> 00:35:07,200
This team, the Ravens does a better job of closing down on routes.

498
00:35:07,200 --> 00:35:12,520
Josh Allen is enjoying the fourth or fifth best yards after catch of any quarterback

499
00:35:12,520 --> 00:35:14,040
in the league right now.

500
00:35:14,040 --> 00:35:16,320
And I don't think that that's going to continue this week.

501
00:35:16,320 --> 00:35:21,320
I think that this, this is the kind of week where if the Bills have completions, unless

502
00:35:21,320 --> 00:35:25,960
it's a blown coverage, which I think that you've aptly pointed out is a possibility

503
00:35:25,960 --> 00:35:27,800
with this Ravens defense.

504
00:35:27,800 --> 00:35:31,640
Unless it's a blown coverage and some with wide open where they shouldn't be, I do think

505
00:35:31,640 --> 00:35:34,640
that this is the kind of game where like whatever people are getting when they catch

506
00:35:34,640 --> 00:35:39,200
the ball is maybe all they're going to get because the Ravens team flows to the ball

507
00:35:39,200 --> 00:35:41,400
and usually is pretty close in coverage.

508
00:35:41,400 --> 00:35:49,320
I mean, I saw in the gaming into Cowboys, Dak Prescott was actually I'm pretty indifferent

509
00:35:49,320 --> 00:35:50,560
on Dak Prescott.

510
00:35:50,560 --> 00:35:52,840
I think he's a above average NFL starter.

511
00:35:52,840 --> 00:35:59,000
I mean, he usually produces, you know, top top five, top 10 numbers in the league.

512
00:35:59,000 --> 00:36:04,880
The thing I saw though is that he was like threading balls into plaster coverage over

513
00:36:04,880 --> 00:36:05,960
and over and over.

514
00:36:05,960 --> 00:36:12,800
He was hitting receivers, running backs, even full backs, like on their hands with a

515
00:36:12,800 --> 00:36:15,000
DB draped all over them.

516
00:36:15,000 --> 00:36:21,280
And so again, you know, the whole inflation of defense or inflation of passing yards

517
00:36:21,280 --> 00:36:23,960
against statistic wasn't a lack of coverage.

518
00:36:23,960 --> 00:36:31,360
It was often the quarterback making sort of dangerous and somewhat challenging throws

519
00:36:31,360 --> 00:36:33,600
into coverage that was very tight.

520
00:36:33,600 --> 00:36:38,520
So I expect that the bills are not going to enjoy yards after the catch as they have.

521
00:36:38,520 --> 00:36:40,440
And so yeah, I think that it's going to be interesting.

522
00:36:40,440 --> 00:36:45,000
I think we're going to have to see what Joe Brady and Josh Allen can do against a completely

523
00:36:45,000 --> 00:36:48,040
different challenge on defense.

524
00:36:48,040 --> 00:36:55,360
And then for the bills defense, I think that I don't think that they faced a reasonable

525
00:36:55,360 --> 00:36:58,840
rushing attack since week one against the Cardinals.

526
00:36:58,840 --> 00:37:05,240
And I think that the Cardinals offensive line was inferior compared to the Ravens offensive

527
00:37:05,240 --> 00:37:10,200
line, even with some of the injuries that the Ravens are working through right now.

528
00:37:10,200 --> 00:37:14,880
They have they have a bully, you know, bully front, I think they have more like the bills.

529
00:37:14,880 --> 00:37:21,600
They tend to get larger, more athletic guys and and try to just road grade against you.

530
00:37:21,600 --> 00:37:23,720
And so and then of course, Derek Henry, right?

531
00:37:23,720 --> 00:37:29,760
Like Derek Henry plus Lamar Jackson and the point has been made by many in Bill's mafia,

532
00:37:29,760 --> 00:37:30,760
many in Bill's media.

533
00:37:30,760 --> 00:37:34,200
Well, the bills have had good plans for for Lamar Jackson.

534
00:37:34,200 --> 00:37:36,680
They've had good plans to shut down Derek Henry.

535
00:37:36,680 --> 00:37:39,400
They haven't had plans to shut down both in the same backfield.

536
00:37:39,400 --> 00:37:44,760
I think that's the biggest wrinkle in what we saw the Ravens do against the Cowboys.

537
00:37:44,760 --> 00:37:48,680
Um, was just absolutely wear them down.

538
00:37:48,680 --> 00:37:53,360
I think the Cowboys were tired of tackling Derek Henry or trying to chase Lamar Jackson

539
00:37:53,360 --> 00:37:59,200
after the first three series and spent the rest of the game getting punished.

540
00:37:59,200 --> 00:38:02,720
Because it was simply it's just zone read the whole time.

541
00:38:02,720 --> 00:38:08,240
It's either Lamar Jackson sticks it in Derek Henry's gut up the up the middle or goes and

542
00:38:08,240 --> 00:38:12,480
check test the edge of your defense over and over and over again.

543
00:38:12,480 --> 00:38:17,640
And over and over and over again, the Cowboys were guessing wrong on that play.

544
00:38:17,640 --> 00:38:24,520
The the Ravens ran directly at Micah Parsons because he is undersized for his position.

545
00:38:24,520 --> 00:38:31,560
And I worry a little bit that the Ravens might do the same toward AJ Epineza or Von Miller,

546
00:38:31,560 --> 00:38:35,480
if they see them in the game, they're probably going to try to run away from Greg Russo because

547
00:38:35,480 --> 00:38:40,240
I think he's one of the best zone read defending defensive ends in the NFL.

548
00:38:40,240 --> 00:38:46,840
Um, but there are there's going to be some vulnerabilities, particularly in snaps where

549
00:38:46,840 --> 00:38:53,280
Ed Oliver is able to be double teamed because this I love Ed.

550
00:38:53,280 --> 00:38:56,480
I don't know that he's going to be able to split doubles against these interior offensive

551
00:38:56,480 --> 00:38:57,480
alignment.

552
00:38:57,480 --> 00:39:00,960
No, you're you're you're definitely right.

553
00:39:00,960 --> 00:39:08,280
And when you add the QB design run game to what Baltimore is trying to do, um, a lot

554
00:39:08,280 --> 00:39:12,320
of a lot of hay was made in that week one game against Kansas City where Lamar took

555
00:39:12,320 --> 00:39:14,960
off and ran, I think it was 16 times.

556
00:39:14,960 --> 00:39:21,520
So a lot of it in improvisational, but they have JJ built in and they are still kind of

557
00:39:21,520 --> 00:39:23,760
finding their way with it.

558
00:39:23,760 --> 00:39:30,960
This duo rushing attack between Lamar Jackson and Derek Henry that Todd Munkin, the OC

559
00:39:30,960 --> 00:39:35,880
for Baltimore is still trying to kind of figure out, but you can see him fine tuning this

560
00:39:35,880 --> 00:39:37,000
concept.

561
00:39:37,000 --> 00:39:42,520
They have no problem even with Lamar's injury history now designing runs for him and on

562
00:39:42,520 --> 00:39:44,240
design QB runs.

563
00:39:44,240 --> 00:39:50,480
He has the highest success rate in the league at about 72.2%, which is more than even our

564
00:39:50,480 --> 00:39:52,120
beloved Josh Allen.

565
00:39:52,120 --> 00:39:57,420
So Munkin is starting to understand what he has as far as a rushing attack goes here.

566
00:39:57,420 --> 00:40:02,720
So not only can Jackson break contain in an improvisational way and take off and test the

567
00:40:02,720 --> 00:40:04,280
edges of your defense.

568
00:40:04,280 --> 00:40:07,680
They're really trying to make you guess, is it going to go to Henry?

569
00:40:07,680 --> 00:40:09,160
Is it going to be Jackson?

570
00:40:09,160 --> 00:40:13,000
And then you really have two running backs in the backfield to stop there.

571
00:40:13,000 --> 00:40:19,840
Add to the fact that Lamar Jackson JJ is an accurate passer to the areas of the field where

572
00:40:19,840 --> 00:40:24,400
the bills right now have their most vulnerability because of injuries.

573
00:40:24,400 --> 00:40:26,360
And that's the middle parts of the field.

574
00:40:26,360 --> 00:40:31,040
The book on Lamar Jackson for most of his career was that he was a guy that could only

575
00:40:31,040 --> 00:40:34,720
attack the middle of the field, a la to a tongue of a loa couldn't attack outside the

576
00:40:34,720 --> 00:40:35,720
numbers.

577
00:40:35,720 --> 00:40:41,440
Well, Lamar can attack outside the numbers, but he is still a very adept QB at attacking

578
00:40:41,440 --> 00:40:43,240
the middle parts of the field.

579
00:40:43,240 --> 00:40:48,800
Regardless of yardage from the line of scrimmage, he is an above average passer when attacking

580
00:40:48,800 --> 00:40:52,520
all three levels of the mid parts of the field.

581
00:40:52,520 --> 00:40:54,620
And it just so happens JJ.

582
00:40:54,620 --> 00:40:58,120
That is where the Buffalo Bills have the most questions on this defense with their linebacker

583
00:40:58,120 --> 00:41:00,960
core and that safety group.

584
00:41:00,960 --> 00:41:06,040
It's going to be really interesting to see what the bills do here against Baltimore because

585
00:41:06,040 --> 00:41:10,560
you've got a QB that can attack you in the ways that you are vulnerable.

586
00:41:10,560 --> 00:41:15,000
And you've got a rushing game that is kind of like this two headed monster.

587
00:41:15,000 --> 00:41:19,280
And the only thing I think that has kept it from being more effective JJ is the fact that

588
00:41:19,280 --> 00:41:24,040
Monkens been a little bit predictable with some of the personnel schemes he's run out

589
00:41:24,040 --> 00:41:25,040
there.

590
00:41:25,040 --> 00:41:28,800
When Henry is out there and Baltimore is in heavy package, you know you're getting a

591
00:41:28,800 --> 00:41:30,080
run.

592
00:41:30,080 --> 00:41:35,360
When Justice Hill is out there and they're an 11 personnel in Baltimore, you know that

593
00:41:35,360 --> 00:41:36,880
you're getting a pass.

594
00:41:36,880 --> 00:41:42,160
That's really been the only thing I think that's kept this Baltimore offense honest

595
00:41:42,160 --> 00:41:46,680
to some extent and kept them from being able to close out games against their opponents

596
00:41:46,680 --> 00:41:51,440
when they do have a lead is the predictability of some of the scheme sets that Monkens is

597
00:41:51,440 --> 00:41:53,040
calling.

598
00:41:53,040 --> 00:41:57,680
Outside of that, this feels like an offensive attack that's really fine tuned to take advantage

599
00:41:57,680 --> 00:41:58,680
of the bills.

600
00:41:58,680 --> 00:42:00,560
I'm going to take a listen.

601
00:42:00,560 --> 00:42:07,560
Zay Flowers, who both me and you loved in his draft year coming out, it is almost an unfair

602
00:42:07,560 --> 00:42:13,520
advantage for him to have to flash him across the middle of field in an end cutting route.

603
00:42:13,520 --> 00:42:19,920
His speed, his acceleration, his ability to get release and work inside leverage is for

604
00:42:19,920 --> 00:42:23,920
my money, tops in the league for young wide receivers.

605
00:42:23,920 --> 00:42:28,600
That's going to be a real challenge for this Buffalo Bill's zone heavy scheme too because

606
00:42:28,600 --> 00:42:33,840
Dorian Williams to not bite on playfakes and catch Zay Flowers coming across the middle.

607
00:42:33,840 --> 00:42:37,880
You got to rely on bail inspector be able to recognize some of these sets that Monkens

608
00:42:37,880 --> 00:42:40,720
rolling out that have been predictable.

609
00:42:40,720 --> 00:42:45,840
It's going to be a challenge for this Buffalo Bill's defense JJ in a lot of different ways.

610
00:42:45,840 --> 00:42:47,160
Yeah, absolutely.

611
00:42:47,160 --> 00:42:50,520
And I think he kept thinking though, I agree.

612
00:42:50,520 --> 00:42:52,320
I love Zay Flowers coming out of the draft.

613
00:42:52,320 --> 00:42:58,320
I think he's developed into exactly the type of pro that we thought he was going to.

614
00:42:58,320 --> 00:43:05,240
But the thing I kept thinking about with this Ravens team is that their wide receiver core

615
00:43:05,240 --> 00:43:08,000
is very, very small.

616
00:43:08,000 --> 00:43:09,360
It's very small.

617
00:43:09,360 --> 00:43:14,640
So like on on their off their offense, they have Zay Flowers, of course, Rashad Bateman,

618
00:43:14,640 --> 00:43:17,600
Nelson Aguilore, I guess is a little bit bigger.

619
00:43:17,600 --> 00:43:22,160
And then they have, of course, former Bill, former St. Deontay Hardy.

620
00:43:22,160 --> 00:43:28,520
And it's just like, I know they have, you know, Mark Andrews, Isaiah Lickley and Charlie

621
00:43:28,520 --> 00:43:31,560
Kohler as large tight end pass catchers who are also athletic.

622
00:43:31,560 --> 00:43:36,920
But I was watching it, I was like, OK, unless they get supreme separation, I think this

623
00:43:36,920 --> 00:43:46,360
is going to be an opportunity for the Bill's DBs and safeties for possible, you know, bully

624
00:43:46,360 --> 00:43:50,280
moments where they strip, strip the ball out, different things like that.

625
00:43:50,280 --> 00:43:54,360
I think that that was the thing that I thought of is that the Bill's defensive backfield

626
00:43:54,360 --> 00:43:56,200
is is one, it's bigger.

627
00:43:56,200 --> 00:43:58,200
And they've got a size advantage.

628
00:43:58,200 --> 00:44:00,880
And then two, they're extremely physical.

629
00:44:00,880 --> 00:44:05,280
And so I think that there's opportunities there in coverage for the Bill's to use their

630
00:44:05,280 --> 00:44:11,680
physicality and really take it to a team that doesn't necessarily have, you know, the alpha

631
00:44:11,680 --> 00:44:17,600
dog a one wide receiver who's going to like go up and and beat you on contested balls.

632
00:44:17,600 --> 00:44:19,400
They're going to rely on separation.

633
00:44:19,400 --> 00:44:25,600
And so again, to your point, I think it comes down to whether or not the safeties and linebackers

634
00:44:25,600 --> 00:44:28,040
are squeezing the routes the right way.

635
00:44:28,040 --> 00:44:33,200
And if they are, it's going to be probably a difficult time for for Lamar Jackson to

636
00:44:33,200 --> 00:44:35,560
find anything open.

637
00:44:35,560 --> 00:44:36,800
But I yeah, go ahead.

638
00:44:36,800 --> 00:44:38,400
No, no, no, no, finish your thought.

639
00:44:38,400 --> 00:44:39,400
Yeah.

640
00:44:39,400 --> 00:44:44,200
Oh, I was just going to say, I don't I'm worried that that doesn't that that's not going to

641
00:44:44,200 --> 00:44:49,640
matter because this Bill's defense is going to be giving up a lot of rushing yards.

642
00:44:49,640 --> 00:44:51,320
That's my my main thought.

643
00:44:51,320 --> 00:44:52,320
I agree.

644
00:44:52,320 --> 00:44:53,320
No, I agree.

645
00:44:53,320 --> 00:44:57,200
Again, I think it's going to be eerie how similar this game script is to Arizona.

646
00:44:57,200 --> 00:45:03,440
I've said it a bunch of times and I'll stand behind it because I think first and foremost,

647
00:45:03,440 --> 00:45:08,600
they're going to want to great this Buffalo Bill's defense and listen, Buffalo, at this

648
00:45:08,600 --> 00:45:11,240
point, JJ, they are beyond stubborn.

649
00:45:11,240 --> 00:45:14,280
We just have to say the word never is in there.

650
00:45:14,280 --> 00:45:16,480
Never going to bring in an extra linebacker.

651
00:45:16,480 --> 00:45:21,240
They're never going to play with an odd man front to adjust to some of these rushing attacks

652
00:45:21,240 --> 00:45:23,480
they're going to face this season.

653
00:45:23,480 --> 00:45:29,920
Buffalo has played in a standard nickel package on 71% of its snaps this season.

654
00:45:29,920 --> 00:45:34,520
And on the other 29% of its snaps, it has played in a dime package.

655
00:45:34,520 --> 00:45:39,800
They're allergic to playing any kind of four, three base or bringing in an extra linebacker

656
00:45:39,800 --> 00:45:45,120
to help stymie some of these some of these rush heavy offenses that they faced early

657
00:45:45,120 --> 00:45:46,600
on this season.

658
00:45:46,600 --> 00:45:50,320
And it worked against Miami because it's a bad offensive line.

659
00:45:50,320 --> 00:45:55,240
And it worked against Jacksonville because Jacksonville has no identity on offense, even

660
00:45:55,240 --> 00:45:58,920
though again, they've got some talent on the offensive line and they've got some talent

661
00:45:58,920 --> 00:46:01,480
in the backfield and Travis Etn.

662
00:46:01,480 --> 00:46:06,800
This is going to be a test JJ to where we're really going to see how well this this defensive

663
00:46:06,800 --> 00:46:10,680
scheme this DB defensive scheme holds up.

664
00:46:10,680 --> 00:46:15,120
And I have a feeling this is going to be the first game where we really miss Taryn Johnson.

665
00:46:15,120 --> 00:46:20,560
Like we miss him generally because he is not just probably the best player on that defense.

666
00:46:20,560 --> 00:46:25,880
And I say that if Matt Milano was healthy, but he is also one of the best if not the

667
00:46:25,880 --> 00:46:28,880
best nickel corners in the league.

668
00:46:28,880 --> 00:46:30,320
He is such a unique player.

669
00:46:30,320 --> 00:46:32,760
He basically plays like a linebacker.

670
00:46:32,760 --> 00:46:37,240
He is the reason why the bills have been able to be so stubborn and staying in nickel sets

671
00:46:37,240 --> 00:46:42,240
against in obvious run situations because of the way he plays the run.

672
00:46:42,240 --> 00:46:46,600
This is really going to test Cam Lewis and Jomarcus Ingram.

673
00:46:46,600 --> 00:46:49,400
I think in ways that they have not been tested yet.

674
00:46:49,400 --> 00:46:53,400
And this is going to be a really big moment for both of those two players as they try

675
00:46:53,400 --> 00:46:59,600
to in the aggregate replace what Taryn Johnson has brought to the squad.

676
00:46:59,600 --> 00:47:07,720
Absolutely, and I do think that, you know, this will also be a pretty extreme test of

677
00:47:07,720 --> 00:47:12,200
what what the heck can Taylor wrap into Marham Lynn do right?

678
00:47:12,200 --> 00:47:13,840
Like what is their actual ceiling?

679
00:47:13,840 --> 00:47:17,800
Oh, Rashad Bateman going to take the roof off that defense.

680
00:47:17,800 --> 00:47:18,800
Like yeah.

681
00:47:18,800 --> 00:47:23,680
Well, that's the thing is I think the bills have I mean they have played they have played

682
00:47:23,680 --> 00:47:30,440
good I think Marvin Harrison Jr. is you know, showing up in that week one game.

683
00:47:30,440 --> 00:47:34,080
I don't know how much of that was the bill's defensive scheme and how much of that was him

684
00:47:34,080 --> 00:47:35,400
just kind of being a rook.

685
00:47:35,400 --> 00:47:38,040
I think it was the ladder getting his feet under him.

686
00:47:38,040 --> 00:47:41,320
I think we're going to look back and be like, thank God, Marvin Harrison Jr. didn't have

687
00:47:41,320 --> 00:47:43,160
his shit together in week one.

688
00:47:43,160 --> 00:47:44,160
Yeah, right.

689
00:47:44,160 --> 00:47:47,680
Well, that's what I mean is like if that's the case, you know, then there are still questions

690
00:47:47,680 --> 00:47:54,640
about this Buffalo bills pass coverage unit against fast able to separate receivers.

691
00:47:54,640 --> 00:47:58,200
And so we're going to see kind of what that looks like.

692
00:47:58,200 --> 00:48:04,400
I do have a lot of faith though, in the Buffalo bills front four and their ability to rush

693
00:48:04,400 --> 00:48:10,840
the passer in this game because the Baltimore Ravens are a little bit banged up.

694
00:48:10,840 --> 00:48:15,200
I mentioned they have a probably one of the better offensive lines that the bills have

695
00:48:15,200 --> 00:48:22,000
seen, but looks like their left guard, their preferred left guard, Andrew Voorhees is doubtful

696
00:48:22,000 --> 00:48:23,000
for the game.

697
00:48:23,000 --> 00:48:27,280
Their center and the kind of heart of that that offensive line, Tyler Linderbaum, who's

698
00:48:27,280 --> 00:48:32,640
excellent is questionable, but very likely to play, I believe.

699
00:48:32,640 --> 00:48:37,480
And you know, Ronnie Stanley, long in the tooth, one of the elite tackles in the league

700
00:48:37,480 --> 00:48:41,640
for a very long time, but definitely showing his age a little bit more left tackle, Daniel

701
00:48:41,640 --> 00:48:48,400
Falele, who many Ravens fans would probably wish was replaced by Ben Cleveland in the

702
00:48:48,400 --> 00:48:54,360
lineup as a right guard has, you know, at times struggled has, I think he came into the league

703
00:48:54,360 --> 00:48:56,720
as a tackle and then was moved to guard.

704
00:48:56,720 --> 00:49:04,040
And then their right tackle, Patrick McCurry, his has also shown some weakness here and there.

705
00:49:04,040 --> 00:49:09,240
All of them, I think are better run run blockers than they are pass blockers.

706
00:49:09,240 --> 00:49:14,680
But when you have a quarterback like Lamar Jackson, you don't necessarily worry so much

707
00:49:14,680 --> 00:49:19,800
about, you know, holding up for eight seconds, because he's going to be making stuff happen

708
00:49:19,800 --> 00:49:23,120
outside the pocket or he's going to break just break contain and get a get a first sound

709
00:49:23,120 --> 00:49:24,120
with his legs.

710
00:49:24,120 --> 00:49:26,360
So it's an interesting challenge.

711
00:49:26,360 --> 00:49:31,120
I do think that, you know, this is a probably a game where we want to we want a loud game

712
00:49:31,120 --> 00:49:32,840
from Greg Rousseau.

713
00:49:32,840 --> 00:49:37,360
He was a little bit quieter last week, but he'll have opportunities against Patrick

714
00:49:37,360 --> 00:49:42,120
McCurry and I'm really hopeful that he makes the most of them.

715
00:49:42,120 --> 00:49:47,280
And you know, his length is going to be important in maintaining and containing Lamar Jackson

716
00:49:47,280 --> 00:49:49,200
in the pocket.

717
00:49:49,200 --> 00:49:55,280
If the bills can consistently get pressure with their front four and drop seven in a

718
00:49:55,280 --> 00:50:02,520
coverage or get consistent pressure with their front four and passing downs and have an extra

719
00:50:02,520 --> 00:50:08,080
helper from the safety or the corners or the linebackers in and fitting the run front,

720
00:50:08,080 --> 00:50:11,160
I think that they're going to be good because that's the biggest thing that people don't

721
00:50:11,160 --> 00:50:16,520
realize about stopping the run is it's not about, you know, run blitzes and sending six

722
00:50:16,520 --> 00:50:19,800
or putting up a bare front and having five down linemen.

723
00:50:19,800 --> 00:50:23,120
The actual answer to stopping the run and it's going to be so important against this

724
00:50:23,120 --> 00:50:27,960
team is to have your front four win their one on one matchups and then insert a fifth

725
00:50:27,960 --> 00:50:29,920
person into the into the front.

726
00:50:29,920 --> 00:50:36,120
And so having that be, you know, Dorian Williams clicking and closing, triggering downhill,

727
00:50:36,120 --> 00:50:40,840
having Balan Specter take, take an edge so that your line is kind of like shifting and

728
00:50:40,840 --> 00:50:47,480
slanting and then having one of those players, whether that's Dequan Jones at Oliver, Greg

729
00:50:47,480 --> 00:50:52,000
Russo, having one of those players just handily beat their block is how you get, you know,

730
00:50:52,000 --> 00:50:54,280
tackles for loss in the backfield.

731
00:50:54,280 --> 00:50:58,160
And so I'm hopeful and I believe in this defensive line.

732
00:50:58,160 --> 00:51:03,160
Well, JJ, on that note, I have children awake in the house and I can hear them destroying

733
00:51:03,160 --> 00:51:04,160
the living room.

734
00:51:04,160 --> 00:51:06,640
So I think that's a good time to transition to prediction.

735
00:51:06,640 --> 00:51:07,840
Sure to go wrong, my friend.

736
00:51:07,840 --> 00:51:08,840
What do you say?

737
00:51:08,840 --> 00:51:09,840
Understood.

738
00:51:09,840 --> 00:51:10,840
Let's close this thing out.

739
00:51:10,840 --> 00:51:11,840
Let's land this plane.

740
00:51:11,840 --> 00:51:12,840
All right.

741
00:51:12,840 --> 00:51:15,560
So the spread on this game, two and a half favoring Baltimore.

742
00:51:15,560 --> 00:51:19,840
So Vegas Vegas thinks this is going to be a game where Baltimore announces itself with

743
00:51:19,840 --> 00:51:24,360
authority and we see the Raven squad we've been waiting to see all season over under

744
00:51:24,360 --> 00:51:25,360
on this game.

745
00:51:25,360 --> 00:51:29,080
The first day is 46 and a half percent or 46 and a half points.

746
00:51:29,080 --> 00:51:33,720
I'll tell you right now, I am smashing the over on this game with my score prediction.

747
00:51:33,720 --> 00:51:39,280
I think we are in shootout territory and I think also early game of the year vibes with

748
00:51:39,280 --> 00:51:40,280
this one.

749
00:51:40,280 --> 00:51:43,000
It just feels like Baltimore ready to get right.

750
00:51:43,000 --> 00:51:44,200
We're going to get their best shot.

751
00:51:44,200 --> 00:51:46,280
The bills clicking on all cylinders.

752
00:51:46,280 --> 00:51:50,400
You're going to get two teams performing at the height of their early season abilities

753
00:51:50,400 --> 00:51:51,400
here.

754
00:51:51,400 --> 00:51:52,400
So where do you want to go?

755
00:51:52,400 --> 00:51:53,400
You want to go?

756
00:51:53,400 --> 00:51:55,280
You want to give us a final score prediction first here?

757
00:51:55,280 --> 00:51:56,280
Yeah.

758
00:51:56,280 --> 00:51:58,080
So I think that I agree with you.

759
00:51:58,080 --> 00:52:03,040
I think that the bills scoring over 30 is going to that streak is going to continue.

760
00:52:03,040 --> 00:52:11,200
I'm saying it's going to be 37, which is a random score, a gummy type score, 37 Buffalo,

761
00:52:11,200 --> 00:52:13,360
34 Ravens.

762
00:52:13,360 --> 00:52:17,760
And it's absolutely going to be one of those games as a bills fan that you watch where

763
00:52:17,760 --> 00:52:20,760
Josh Allen has to has to pull it out for us in the fourth quarter.

764
00:52:20,760 --> 00:52:25,040
We're trailing in the third and fourth quarter and it's a bit of a scramble.

765
00:52:25,040 --> 00:52:27,960
It's going to come down to a couple of absolute key plays.

766
00:52:27,960 --> 00:52:31,360
I could see the bills losing this game, but I'm not picking that.

767
00:52:31,360 --> 00:52:33,440
I'm not, you know, that's not my prediction.

768
00:52:33,440 --> 00:52:35,880
My prediction is 37, 34 bills.

769
00:52:35,880 --> 00:52:36,880
Yep.

770
00:52:36,880 --> 00:52:40,360
My prediction here is Buffalo 34.

771
00:52:40,360 --> 00:52:41,360
I agree with you.

772
00:52:41,360 --> 00:52:45,840
I think their streak of scoring over 30 continues here.

773
00:52:45,840 --> 00:52:49,000
And I'm going to go with Baltimore 28.

774
00:52:49,000 --> 00:52:51,080
So I think the bills win.

775
00:52:51,080 --> 00:52:56,920
I do think it comes down to some second half heroics from Josh Allen and listen, man, the

776
00:52:56,920 --> 00:53:01,960
early parts of the season are really as teams are figuring their stuff out.

777
00:53:01,960 --> 00:53:06,760
Do you have answers for what the opposing team is throwing at you?

778
00:53:06,760 --> 00:53:11,760
And for three weeks, the Buffalo bills have had a different answer for how they have won

779
00:53:11,760 --> 00:53:14,520
their football games each and every week.

780
00:53:14,520 --> 00:53:16,200
And I think that's heartening to see.

781
00:53:16,200 --> 00:53:17,520
It gives me a lot of confidence.

782
00:53:17,520 --> 00:53:21,760
Like I said, it feels sustainable at this point, and I think the Buffalo bills are going

783
00:53:21,760 --> 00:53:28,800
to meet the challenge of playing this Baltimore Ravens team, even as the Ravens really, you

784
00:53:28,800 --> 00:53:32,280
could argue need this game more than the bills need this game at this point.

785
00:53:32,280 --> 00:53:35,240
So I think the bills meet the level of intensity the Ravens bring.

786
00:53:35,240 --> 00:53:37,840
And I think they pull one out here 34 to 28.

787
00:53:37,840 --> 00:53:39,720
I love it.

788
00:53:39,720 --> 00:53:41,160
You got any props?

789
00:53:41,160 --> 00:53:42,800
I do.

790
00:53:42,800 --> 00:53:47,040
And we're going to go with rushing because that I think is going to be a big theme for

791
00:53:47,040 --> 00:53:49,800
both teams on both sides of the ball.

792
00:53:49,800 --> 00:53:54,680
JJ, who will have more rushing yards at the end of the game?

793
00:53:54,680 --> 00:53:57,440
Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen?

794
00:53:57,440 --> 00:54:00,160
Oh, what an interesting twist.

795
00:54:00,160 --> 00:54:01,160
It's a simple pick.

796
00:54:01,160 --> 00:54:02,160
Yeah.

797
00:54:02,160 --> 00:54:06,560
I'm going to say Lamar Jackson.

798
00:54:06,560 --> 00:54:07,560
I agree.

799
00:54:07,560 --> 00:54:10,440
I actually think I think this is going to be a game kind of like Kansas City where we

800
00:54:10,440 --> 00:54:14,360
see him rush for over 100 yards and throw for over 100 yards.

801
00:54:14,360 --> 00:54:20,120
So it's the it's the unique skill set that only a handful of QBs can bring to the table.

802
00:54:20,120 --> 00:54:24,120
And it just so happens that we're going to watch two of those QBs in the same game.

803
00:54:24,120 --> 00:54:28,960
Well, and I think in my prediction with the bills when I think that it might be the kind

804
00:54:28,960 --> 00:54:33,560
of thing that Lamar Jackson running the football is often like Josh Allen running the football

805
00:54:33,560 --> 00:54:34,720
in bills games.

806
00:54:34,720 --> 00:54:39,240
It's when the defense of the opponent has taken away some other things that you want

807
00:54:39,240 --> 00:54:46,120
to do and you're left with using the simple math problem of your QB as a runner to fix

808
00:54:46,120 --> 00:54:50,960
the box count for yourself and allow yourself to have more blockers, more players out and

809
00:54:50,960 --> 00:54:52,160
routes, you know, etc.

810
00:54:52,160 --> 00:54:56,840
So that you are, you know, controlling the dynamic in the box.

811
00:54:56,840 --> 00:55:01,840
I think that that's why I believe Lamar will have more rushing yards is because the bills

812
00:55:01,840 --> 00:55:06,080
are going to do a decent enough job of taking away some of the things that the Baltimore

813
00:55:06,080 --> 00:55:10,680
Ruins have to do, so they have to resort to it, whereas Josh running a little bit less,

814
00:55:10,680 --> 00:55:14,600
maybe because I think Joe Brady is a better offensive coordinator and might have more

815
00:55:14,600 --> 00:55:15,600
answers.

816
00:55:15,600 --> 00:55:16,600
Yeah, absolutely.

817
00:55:16,600 --> 00:55:18,880
Do you have a prop?

818
00:55:18,880 --> 00:55:20,880
I have just one prop.

819
00:55:20,880 --> 00:55:25,200
And it's a simple, you know, yes or no question or plus or minus.

820
00:55:25,200 --> 00:55:29,680
Von Miller continues to sack streak and it has more than 0.5 sacks.

821
00:55:29,680 --> 00:55:34,000
I want to say yes, because I think they're going to need it in this game, you know, and

822
00:55:34,000 --> 00:55:39,400
it's interesting because I've watched a lot of film where I've seen the right side of

823
00:55:39,400 --> 00:55:44,400
that Ravens offensive line really struggle on pass protection and I've seen Lamar.

824
00:55:44,400 --> 00:55:48,480
Lamar's been hit a fair amount in the pocket this season.

825
00:55:48,480 --> 00:55:53,200
We know he's got great escape ability, but anyone coming off the right side of that offensive

826
00:55:53,200 --> 00:55:56,360
line, the defense is left, he's had a massive advantage.

827
00:55:56,360 --> 00:56:01,720
I mean, they lined up Max Crosby all day and week too against that right side of the offensive

828
00:56:01,720 --> 00:56:05,320
line and he made absolute hay in that week two game.

829
00:56:05,320 --> 00:56:07,760
So I'm going to say yes.

830
00:56:07,760 --> 00:56:13,320
And I wouldn't be surprised if we actually see a lot more of the Greg Russo, Von Miller

831
00:56:13,320 --> 00:56:18,320
with Russo kicking in alignment against the right side of that offensive line to double

832
00:56:18,320 --> 00:56:20,000
up on that advantage.

833
00:56:20,000 --> 00:56:21,000
The NASCAR package.

834
00:56:21,000 --> 00:56:22,000
Absolutely.

835
00:56:22,000 --> 00:56:23,000
Yeah.

836
00:56:23,000 --> 00:56:24,000
Absolutely.

837
00:56:24,000 --> 00:56:25,000
I think it's going to be really interesting to see.

838
00:56:25,000 --> 00:56:28,600
But yeah, I'm going to say over because I think they're going to need it.

839
00:56:28,600 --> 00:56:29,600
All right.

840
00:56:29,600 --> 00:56:30,760
I'm also smashing the over.

841
00:56:30,760 --> 00:56:37,280
I'm just hope I'm just hopeful that I would like Von Miller to have like a 16 sack seat

842
00:56:37,280 --> 00:56:42,400
like you have just like an incredibly productive season because the bills have an option to

843
00:56:42,400 --> 00:56:44,840
get out of his contract on the end of this year.

844
00:56:44,840 --> 00:56:50,040
I'm okay with them continuing to pay him and I'm okay with him hitting all of his incentives

845
00:56:50,040 --> 00:56:54,600
and finishing his careers above low bill as a productive bass rusher.

846
00:56:54,600 --> 00:56:57,160
So yeah, we're going to talk about that.

847
00:56:57,160 --> 00:57:00,720
We can depart there because right now the bills have a lot of options.

848
00:57:00,720 --> 00:57:04,640
11 million and cap room projected for 2025.

849
00:57:04,640 --> 00:57:09,000
20 25 cutting Miller loose gets them another eight.

850
00:57:09,000 --> 00:57:11,800
And I would actually like to see them test the free agent market because there's going

851
00:57:11,800 --> 00:57:14,080
to be some decent pass rushers on the market this year.

852
00:57:14,080 --> 00:57:16,800
So yeah, this is a conversation for another day.

853
00:57:16,800 --> 00:57:17,800
Absolutely.

854
00:57:17,800 --> 00:57:18,800
Absolutely.

855
00:57:18,800 --> 00:57:19,800
Oh, it's going to be fun.

856
00:57:19,800 --> 00:57:20,800
I love I love Madden GM.

857
00:57:20,800 --> 00:57:23,080
I know we're so far away from it though.

858
00:57:23,080 --> 00:57:24,080
It's week three.

859
00:57:24,080 --> 00:57:25,080
Come on.

860
00:57:25,080 --> 00:57:26,080
We really are.

861
00:57:26,080 --> 00:57:27,080
But we're bills fans.

862
00:57:27,080 --> 00:57:28,080
We're used to being in off season mode.

863
00:57:28,080 --> 00:57:30,240
We want me to say let's just live in the moment, man.

864
00:57:30,240 --> 00:57:31,240
That's right.

865
00:57:31,240 --> 00:57:32,240
All right, cool.

866
00:57:32,240 --> 00:57:35,160
For all of you listening at home, like, share and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.

867
00:57:35,160 --> 00:57:39,400
Remember, we are going to be hitting up YouTube starting with the Kansas City game later on

868
00:57:39,400 --> 00:57:40,400
this year.

869
00:57:40,400 --> 00:57:43,960
We're also on Apple and Spotify anywhere you get your podcasts.

870
00:57:43,960 --> 00:57:45,560
And as always, go bills.

871
00:57:45,560 --> 00:58:00,400
Go bills.