Alright, welcome back to the Buffalo Bread Podcast.
We are recording a rare same day pod.
Because you know, sometimes life happens and you gotta do things last minute.
It is September 29th and the Buffalo Bills will be kicking off against the Baltimore
Ravens in Baltimore, Maryland, later today, about 14 hours away.
And tell me not to be freaked out by this matchup.
It's hard not to be, because it's a quality team that has been struggling to start the
season in Baltimore.
The Bills look like the most complete team in the NFL right now, which we know when we
have seen Bills hit a stretch like this, inevitably the good vibes come crashing down.
J.J. on paper and on the field, this Baltimore team, particularly this offense, is so well
suited to test the Buffalo Bills in ways they have not been tested, particularly the spine
of that defense with DeMar Hamlin, Taylor Rapp holding the roof to this house, and then
our back-up linebackers, Andorian Williams and Bale Inspector.
The way this Baltimore team wants to play is very well suited to exploiting what we
have all had a little bit of uneasiness about that level of the defense.
So J.J. it feels like an opponent that is perfectly well-tuned to exploit what other
teams have not been able to at this point, and also a quality opponent that just isn't
as bad as they've been playing for the first three weeks.
Bundle that all together with a prime-time matchup on the road against the Bills.
And there I think are reasons to be worried, but J.J. there's also a lot of reasons to
be confident too.
Especially in this Buffalo Bills offense, which I can't wait to get into.
Yeah, and in speaking about teams that were inferior, that the Bills have faced in the
first three weeks, why don't we do a quick recap of that Jaguars absolute throttling
on Monday night this past week?
The curse has been lifted.
They no longer are the foil to a good Bills team because the Bills saw an inferior opponent
and played an almost perfect game to a really once and for all put to bed that the Jaguars
have some sort of curse or hex over them.
It was a clinic.
They scored them.
The Bills scored touchdowns on their first five possessions, or they scored on their first
five possessions.
And Josh Allen was just dishing all first half.
They barely had to play in the second half because they were up 31 points at the break
and did not slow down from there.
So a 47 to 10 victory felt like the perfect game that you and I attended against the Patriots
and the playoffs where nothing could go wrong.
The defense could not stop the Buffalo Bills.
The Jaguars weirdly chose to just stay in man coverage, even though throughout his career,
Josh Allen has proved time and time again that that is a recipe for disaster for your
defensive team and efforts against him.
It was their stubbornness not just to stay in man, which is their core scheme in Jacksonville,
but in the face of A, Josh shredding it, but B, all the defensive backfield injuries they
suffered throughout the course of that game too.
It really was mind boggling.
I think the Jaguars JJ are a team and when you break down all the numbers and when you
watch the film, they're just a team that is disjointed.
And I hate to say this because I'm not a coach, but they're poorly coached.
It looks like like their communication in the secondary blown coverages, guys being
passed off in the limited amount they played zone with no help over the top.
Like it just seems a unit that right now is trying to figure out.
It's got these pieces that look good on paper, but it is not meshed on the field at all offensively
or defensively.
And that is a team that I don't know that they get right under this current coaching
staff because you would expect that they are better than what they're putting out in the
field.
But time after time, going all the way back to last season and that epic second half of
the season collapse they had, you just wonder if there is a lingering residue, be it with
the players still on the roster or the way this team is being coached, there's really
holding that Jacksonville team back.
But JJ, that shouldn't take away from the Buffalo Bills performance on both sides of
the ball, but particularly the offense.
JJ, Josh Allen, we all know is having an MVP season at this point and how far the Bills
go will be predicted specifically on how well he continues to play this year.
But JJ, all the trend lines are pointing up for Josh.
He has seemed to have found a new gear to his game, completing 10 passes to 10 different
pass catchers in the first half of that game alone against Jacksonville.
But we've said this a couple of times and we'll say it again, it's his time to throw.
His time to throw over the first three games this season has been 2.76 seconds.
That is the fastest time to throw for any, any three game stretch of Josh's career.
And if this trend line continues, it will be as fast as time to throw by a country mile
and is in his career all time.
So Josh is making quick decisions.
Joe Brady, you know, and I've heard a lot of media say Joe Brady is giving up easy stuff
for Josh.
I don't know that it's easy, but he's giving Josh a lot of options and he's giving Josh
a lot of second reaction options as well, particularly in the intermediate parts of
the field.
A lot, you know, Mel Kuiper having his meltdown this week about too high coverage needing to
be banned in the league.
And yes, there could be struggling against too high, but Josh isn't.
And Josh isn't simply a check down Charlie against cover two, cover four or cover six.
He is actually attacking the intermediate parts of the field with more success than at
any other point in his career against those two high safety schemes or those rotational
cover four, cover six schemes.
Josh's average area yards per completion JJ is 10 yards.
He's attacking the sticks in the intermediate parts of the field.
And at the second level at a rate that no other QB, including Patrick Mahomes has figured
out how to do against some of these zone looks.
So JJ, it's not that just Josh is getting the ball out quicker.
His decision making is better.
And he's exploiting areas of the field that he hasn't before in the passing game.
And that makes this an exceptionally difficult Buffalo Bills defense to cover, especially
when you play man as much as the Jacksonville Jaguars did and as much as the Baltimore Ravens
like to do.
Oh, absolutely.
And I think that once you add the, you know, the running components of this offense, the
fact that this the offensive line is off to its best start, we've seen in Josh Allen's
entire career.
They are their physical, their tone setting, both in the run and pass protection.
They've been keeping him clean.
I think if he goes without getting sacked this, this upcoming week, he'll set some sort
of NFL record for consecutive, you know, starter quarterback snaps without being sacked.
And it's, it's kind of wild how good the offensive line has been.
And I think that's where it all starts.
You know, leave it to me again, of course, Dan, to point, point back to the big guys
up front in the trenches as the, the sole source of all success for this team.
Of course, Josh Allen dishing it is, is the story of the year, but he wouldn't get very
far nor would these running backs were enjoying lead, lead, league leading numbers in terms
of yards before contact on almost every rush snap.
So it's a, it's a good season for the offensive line.
I think that, you know, they looked strong against a relatively solid Jaguars defensive
front, but, you know, nothing to compare and we'll get into the Ravens game, nothing to
compare to the defense they're about to face today.
And I do think also just kind of one more note on the offense is that what we're seeing
is this everybody eats only works if all of the past catching options Josh Allen has are
dependably where they should be.
And I believe that if they tried this approach in prior years while Diggs was there, you
know, and Beasley, John Brown, various others, I don't know that it would work because I
think that the, the real gem of the off season was that the front office assembled a team
of past catchers drafting Keon Coleman, Coleman picking up Curtis Amill picking up Matt Hollins.
And I think maybe dependability was number one on that shopping list.
Dependability, reliability, team guys, I think that they went with a different approach to
building out this room.
And because of it, he, he has those options.
Josh Allen has those options.
Dan when he's passing because he doesn't have anybody who's playing off script.
He doesn't have anybody who is unreliably, you know, outside their comfort zone with
a route tree.
He doesn't have anybody who just cannot be counted on to break from man coverage or cannot
be counted on to find a soft spot in the zone.
He's really, you know, he's spinning that spin it out there because one, I think Joe Brady
is planning smart, schemed plays and to Josh Allen is able to distribute it to locations
that he can count on a guy being.
I think the other piece if just talking about scheme difference between Joe Brady and the
previous offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey is that there's no more.
I don't remember how many times we saw last year before Ken Dorsey was canned.
Gabe Davis and Stefan Diggs in the same area, Gabe Davis and Khalil Shakir, like running
basically the same route in the same zone because so much of that offense was built on wide receivers
running option routes based on on the fly reads of coverage.
Josh Allen throwing the spots on the field that he believed the wide receivers are going
to choose to move to.
I think this year and you can definitely see it.
Joe Brady has, has these routes on their lockdown, right?
Like there's way less option routes.
I think that he probably provides Dalton concaid a little bit more flexibility, maybe Khalil
Shakir.
But if if so, it's one, one route runner per play that gets to choose where they are on
the field, not like the Ken Dorsey offense where it's everybody sort of free for all
trying to like figure out and dissect the defensive coverage and change routes on the
fly.
Well, and the result has been way better spacing in route combinations as well, which has also
kept defenses very, very honest.
I mean, how many of those routes last season where would we look at film and there'd be
three pass catchers in exactly the same spot ending their routes in the same location.
And those would, oh, those players would always end in the same way.
There are three guys with four defenders sitting around them.
Josh has nowhere to go.
So he's got to scramble.
He's got to improvise something.
There is a lot more structure, I think, to this Joe Brady offense that is designed to
manipulate the defense at every level that they have defenders at.
And I think it's worked really, really well.
I mean, and you've got guys that not you've got guys that I think I don't want to say they
do a lot of the same things because that wouldn't be true.
But you have guys that are to your point good at what they need to do.
Chris Brout running on time releases, knowing the location of the routes need to end and
then in here and concave guys that can improvise if Josh needs to break the pocket and scramble
and buy a little bit of time as well.
It's just JJ when you add the variety of pass catchers that this offense has at its disposal
to the strength of the run game and the strength of the offensive line.
This feels like an offense that is so well tuned to take on modern NFL defenses where
they play light boxes, they play too high coverage, they play a lot of zone, they don't
want to play a lot of base defense of 4-3 or 3-4.
It feels like an offense that is so supremely well made for the moment.
And then add to the fact that you have an alien Tonka truck and Josh Allen under center
as well who can make plays that very few other quarterbacks in the league can make under
center.
I mean, it just seems like a sustainable recipe for success and not a flash in the pan.
Now, when Jacksonville eventually did go to zone coverage at the end of that game, the
bills still had some success, but it wasn't as much success as they had against man.
But at that point, the game was out of reach.
And you got to think that the bills, because of all the defenses that Josh Allen has seen
in his career and the way that Brady is using the players and creating the playbook for each
of these games.
And if you haven't checked out that article by Tim Graham and the Athletic, highly recommended
to all of our listeners, the process Brady goes through weekend and week out to involve
the players in creating each game script and each playbook each week is really fascinating.
When you get players to buy in on that way and you've got the talent assembled on the
roster and you do, it feels like a very sustainable recipe for success, JJ.
But it is a recipe that's going to be tested over the next three weeks against Baltimore
tonight, Houston next week, and then the New York Jets in prime time, three road games
back to back.
We're going to see how well this offense travels against those three really quality teams.
Yeah, certainly there is that that component having the bills play two of their first three
of these three wins at home.
So seeing how the next three are on the road is really going to, especially with communication,
I think that's the biggest thing is so much of offenses about everybody being on the same
page and in hostile road environments, it is difficult to communicate.
And so if this offense can get out to hot starts and take a crowd out of it in these
stadiums, I think that that's that's their best recipe for success.
Let's flip over to the defensive side of the ball to talk about, you know, briefly the
Jaguars game and then maybe once that's through, we can transition into sort of our preview
thoughts on the Baltimore Ravens.
Defensively I think that, you know, we talked last week, how exciting it is to see that
players like Dorian William, Bale Inspector, Jomarcus Ingram and Cam Lewis have been able
to step up for injuries and sort of fill in in not just ways of being appreciable backups,
but rather, you know, outstanding starters impact players on this defense, which nobody
I think expected if you had told me preseason that by week three, by week four, our starting
linebackers would be Bale Inspector and Dorian Williams and that Taryn Johnson would be
out on a somewhat long time injury.
I would probably suspect that the team was one and two, just because that's such a massive
part of the defense.
But this defense against the Jaguars, they I mean, five different people had sacks on
Trevor Lawrence.
I know that Trevor Lawrence is particularly sackable, but it was still notable how quickly
they were beating the line, how much pressure they had on him throughout the day.
I was very happy to see Javon Solomon, who we've talked about as being sort of a sneaky,
sneaky good value late in the draft, getting not just a sack, but a sack strip fumble that
Casey tool ended up picking up.
Casey tool was credited with a sack.
A Jepanese got one.
Von Miller is on a three game sack streak right now.
And then of course, DeMar Hamlin, who again, if you would have told me beginning of training
camp or over the summer, that the starting, the starting pair of safeties was DeMar Hamlin
and Taylor wrap, I would, I would be concerned that the bills were in trouble defensively.
And I think that DeMar Hamlin gave up, you know, a couple of things here and there, but
in a 47 to 10 victory that that's nitpicking at that point.
But he did get an interception on Monday night football after what had happened to him against
the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday night football two years ago, sort of it was a poetic moment.
And you could tell that the whole team was very much excited and very yoked up for that
moment.
Absolutely.
JJ.
And in addition to some of the defensive line play, I think that we saw that was so good.
These corners dude, I mean, Benford Douglas, they're absolutely locked down in any situation
want to put them in.
Benford in particular, his play, his technique, coupled with his physicality when he needs
to be physical, and his, his desire to create turnovers as well.
I mean, this dude, should he stay healthy this season feels like he is the bills future
CB one moving forward.
I mean, I just watched, I just got done watching about 70% of his snaps against Jacksonville.
And he was on Brian Thomas Jr. for a fair amount of the game.
And that dude's a burner, right for everything that's going wrong with Jacksonville's offense
this year.
Brian Thomas Jr. has worked and he's worked in flashing in cutting routes across the middle
intermediate parts of the field.
He's been a reliable deep threat for them.
And Benford just his technique, his athleticism, just absolutely locked that dude down kept
him from taking the roof off the defense and exploiting the safeties really forced him
using a lot of great inside and outside leverage really forced Thomas's routes where he wanted
them to go and never bet on any of the route fakes or double moves that Thomas was throwing
out there.
He's so disciplined, Benford.
He's so skillful and the way he approaches this and it shows up in the numbers too.
I think the QBR for opposing QBs when they're throwing to Benford is sitting at 37 right
now.
I mean, it's getting to a point where you almost don't want to test the part of the
field that Benford is is on.
And I would dare say this knowing that Saas Gardner and DJ Reed also are in the AFC East.
I would say that the Buffalo Bills and Rizul Douglas and Christian Benford might have
the best cornerbacking duo in the division at this point.
And it showed up for sure in that Jacksonville game.
I'd agree with that completely.
And I think that, you know, Benford and Douglas that one of the things that, you know, I think
their cover is excellent as you pointed out their coverage.
But the thing that I think will be most valuable for this team in the way it likes to play
football is that since they're so zone heavy, Benford and Douglas are so physical in coming
up and fitting the run and shutting down screens and shutting down kind of like those wide receiver
flares and quick, quick throws to the outside, really with a too high shell, if a team cannot
throw over the top on you and they cannot hit the hit the kind of flares to the to the
perimeter, the only option they have is to throw into the heart of the defense, right
up the seam.
And with too high coverage that that's middle open, you should be able to hit the seam.
But because the linebacking core for those bills team is so athletic, Dan, it it's it
makes it difficult to not have traffic and clutter in the seam, even if you know your
safety, your safeties aren't providing that kind of central zone like you would in a cover
three shell or in a single high safety look.
So I think that that's one of the pieces to is that the corners having their eyes in the
backfield being so quick to trigger come downhill and shut things down on the perimeter
has really changed the scope for the teams that the bills are facing.
When they try to plan this offense, oftentimes it comes down to we need somebody to beat
somebody.
We need somebody to like absolutely have a lockdown block.
We need somebody to excel in that one on one battle.
And more often than not for the bills, thankfully, you know, it's the bills defensive player
that's coming out on top of those matchups.
Absolutely, and that's been the case for the first three weeks now.
One would argue, and I think this is a reasonable argument that the Buffalo bills have not exactly
played three great teams over the course of the first three weeks.
I think they've played some in balance teams.
I think Arizona, I think Arizona's got a top 10 offense.
I think when we look back at that Arizona game, we're going to feel so good about the
way that game script played out because Arizona's offense is scary and they can beat teams in
a variety of different ways.
The Miami game, I mean, listen, we said this, it's a known opponent that McDermott knows
how to scheme for with a really bad offensive line.
And then Jacksonville, again, I don't wish anybody to lose their job.
I think that's just like mean sports podcasting.
What I wouldn't be shocked if Peterson is our first in-year firing should Jacksonville
not turn it around.
So these are three teams, one in balance, two that look like they're in the throes of
a year from hell.
You could argue the bills have not really been tested yet by a truly, fully complete
team.
Enter the Baltimore Ravens, JJ, here tonight.
This is a squad that has high expectations coming into this year, has had a lot of roster
turnover, particularly on the offensive line that has kept them from really getting off
to a big start.
They are in a competitive division in the AFC North that right now is being led by the
Pittsburgh Steelers, a team that everyone feels like is gettable at this point.
And add to the fact that you've got the Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns in there that
are absolutely floundering to start the season.
You feel like even though it's only week four, Baltimore is going to come out with some playoff
urgency here to close the gap with Pittsburgh and try to put away Cleveland and Cincinnati
in the first quarter of the season.
And as a result of that, I feel like the bills are going to face not just their first complete
team on the road here that they face this season, but they're also going to face a team
that's playing with a lot of urgency, JJ.
Yeah, absolutely.
And not only a lot of urgency, but a team that has most recently played at home and lost
to what some would argue is one of the one of the worst rosters in the league in the
Oakland or I'm sorry, he lost Vegas Raiders.
Wow, what I went to two iterations of the Raiders backwards.
I still call the the Chargers San Diego sometimes.
Yeah, don't even worry about it.
So the the Las Vegas Raiders came to town two weeks ago.
And I rewatched I watched the the chiefs Ravens game live.
I watched the and then just just this week I rewatched the Raiders Ravens and the Ravens
Cowboys.
And there's a couple of things that I came away with.
I agree that this is the biggest test that bills have seen both sides of the ball defensively,
offensively, both units are going to be challenged, even special teams are going to be challenged
more this week than they have been in any of the first three weeks.
I think the Ravens defense, there's all these, you know, memes and things going around of
all the Ravens defense is 30 second in the league and past defense.
That is such an artificially inflated stat right now because it's based on yardage.
And they have led in, I think, every one of their games at some point, the chiefs game
is the only one exception where they didn't have a big lead at different points in the
game.
So the other teams that they've been facing have been forced to pass to try to get back
into it.
And because of that, they're just seeing a prevalence of likely, you know, also their
rushing stat is one of the best top three rush defense in the league against the run
is also probably inflated a little bit unfairly because teams are behind early, having to
feel like they have to pass to get back into it.
And so they're throwing the ball all over the yard.
That being said, this Ravens defense, if it doesn't get home with its blitz or its front
four organically, they are in trouble on the back end.
And the reason the reason they are is because they tend to send extra pressure.
They're pretty blitz heavy scheme.
They send a lot of guys and those guys tend to get home.
They have good pressure rates numbers.
They have good EPA per play when blitzing.
They have only, you know, they don't have as many sacks as the bills, but I think they
are better pressure rate right now.
So it's it's a difficult defensive front for the bills.
It's going to be the biggest test for this offensive line.
And then they also fit the run very well.
I mentioned that their rush defense numbers are probably inflated because teams tend to
abandon the run one behind on the scoreboard.
It all works together.
Every football the same way the bills pass defensive stats, you know, tend to get a little
bit higher at different times of the year because this is just a good coach team.
They're they're well, well organized.
They are they're fiery.
They float to the ball.
They tend to like gang tackle.
They're raking at it.
The defensive backs are well coached in terms of trying to always punch at the ball.
So they've been able to force some turnovers.
I think they have a few gems on the defense when it comes to their coverage unit.
I think Kyle Hamilton's an absolute star coming out of Notre Dame a couple of years ago.
I think that Marlon Humphrey, of course, was the cornerback who won the defensive rookie
the year over Treadabuse White the season that they were both rookies.
Is that right?
I believe I think you're I know I'm going to be in Lattimore.
No, you're right.
It was March on Lattimore.
Yeah.
And three of them all were out at the same time.
Calvin Neu is has like a career resurgence on this team, specifically with twists, stunts
and blitzing.
And so I think that, you know, I could go on.
There's so many.
There's so many dangerous, you know, they brought back Namdi Madabuki.
They have Odafe Owe, who's been absolutely dangerous off the edge, Roquan Smith, of course,
one of the best linebackers in the league with Patrick Queen leaving Trenton Simpson
has replaced him and has been a noticeable step down.
But I mean, this this defensive backfield is just like there's there's guys all over
who can make impacts.
And I think that that's the thing that the bills have not seen.
They've seen multiple teams up to this point who have one, maybe two, you know, stud standouts
on defense.
This team is pretty much packed.
Best defensive roster they're going to they're going to see.
Oh, yeah, absolutely.
I mean, I would even put it above New York, who we're going to face in a couple of weeks.
But JJ, you know, it's interesting you bring up the Josh Allen against the Blitz because
the Ravens, you know, when in doubt have sent extra pressure when their organic pressure
rate has not been generating the types of outcomes that's wanted to.
I mean, listen, the book on Josh Allen is you can't blitz him.
Now last season, we saw teams try to do some timely blitz packages against Josh and it
tended to work.
And I think it worked less when Brady took over and more when Dorsey took over.
So there's some skew to the stats from last season.
But overall, Josh has been great against the Blitz in his career.
In this season, he has faced a Blitz package.
So an extra rusher coming free on 21 dropbacks this season.
And JJ, he's completed 15 of 21 passes for five TDs, no interceptions and a pass rate
of 144.
His yards per per air attempt are at 10.3.
And his EPA per dropback is over a full point.
Josh is still decimating the Blitz.
And if you're Baltimore, what that tells me is that you're going to have to rely on some
of this individual talent to help you come through if you're going to shut down what
has been a steamroller of a Buffalo Bills offense.
Well, and I yeah, absolutely.
I know that Blitzing Josh Allen throughout his career has not been a good idea.
The reason I worry a little bit about it is because because of those individual standout
stars that Baltimore has on defense, there I think there's more of a likelihood that
Josh Allen evading a Blitz might make some mistakes because they're very, very, you know,
they take advantage of mistakes very well on this team.
And they always have.
I mean, you don't get to be the number one defense last year and the number one scene
and have the best record of the entire league without some of that skill.
I think that their defensive coaching staff was absolutely gutted by people leaving to
be DCs and head coaches elsewhere.
They've got a first time play caller and coordinator and that talent has also taken a little bit
of a hit with people leaving in free agency.
But I think all in all, this is a dangerous team and I'm not.
I'm not excited to see them Blitzing Josh Allen.
I actually am a little bit worried that we're going to see some cracks in Josh Allen's early
season armor when it comes to his efficient delivery of the ball.
I think the real test comes down to bull Joe Brady, you know, doing his job of studying
the film and coming up with quick, easy answers for Josh Allen against the Blitz and then
also on Josh Allen to avoid his his somewhat natural tendencies of the sugar high Josh
moments and trying to, you know, hurdle every defender and throw a ball 100 yards.
No, I think that's a very viable concern.
I'm, you know, I'm less worried, JJ, about Josh facing the Blitz because I just don't
know that there's a Blitz package he hasn't seen up until this point.
But to your earlier point about the talent and the defensive backfield, I am worried
about Baltimore's ability to shut down the run because defensively, they have been a
group that has been very effective against the run.
They're a top five unit and defensive rush stop win rate and also in rushing defense
stop efficiency.
So this is a group now granted they played Dallas.
Dallas doesn't really like to run the ball.
They played Oakland who we talked or freaking there I go, I did it.
They played, thanks man.
They played Las Vegas who doesn't have an awesome rushing attack.
And then in week one, they played Kansas City who was able to, I think, make some hay with
Pachinko while he was healthy, but not, I think, the strides of the chiefs that hoped
that run game would take.
If the numbers play out and granted, they're a little bit highly skewed because it's only
three weeks.
This is the game JJ, where I feel like we're going to see a defensive unit shut down in
a meaningful way.
The Buffalo Bills organic run game, their standard running back run game.
And this is going to be the game where we've got to see if this Buffalo Bills offense can
take the top off of a defense.
We're going to see, I think, Baltimore condense in and I think we're going to see them leave
some openings in the deep part of the field, which, listen, Baltimore has not been great
despite those names in the defensive backfield in overall passing defense.
The yardage metric that you mentioned is absolutely skewed at this point.
I mean, Dallas last week just stopped running the ball when they were down so behind and
they were just chucking it up in the second half.
I think they ran single digits and actual rush plays against Baltimore in the second
half of that game just to throw their way back into it.
So yes, that metric is skewed.
But when you look at the splits, this is a team that struggled to defend the intermediate
and deep parts of the field, despite some of the names they have in the backfield.
So if the Buffalo Bills are going to have success and if Baltimore is going to shut
down this potent Buffalo run game like I think they might, this is going to be the game JJ
that we've been waiting for where the Joe Brady scheme gets tested and he gets an opportunity
to answer the question, when they take away the short parts of the field, can you exploit
the intermediate and deep parts of the field?
And I think based on what we saw against Jacksonville who did a reasonable job against James Cook
in the rush game, I think Brady is going to surprise us with the amount of answers he
has.
And I think Josh, dude, Josh is just so locked in right now.
I feel like this is the moment we've been waiting for to see if this scheme really holds up.
And JJ, we'll get to this in prediction, sure to go wrong.
I don't think either of these defenses is going to be really good at stopping the opposing
offense just because of the way each of these units is built.
It feels like strength on weakness for both sets of units.
I feel like this game script is going to play out a lot like that Arizona game script played
out where we're going to be in shootout territory before we know it.
Yeah, I think you're right.
And that's a good time to kind of flip and look at the Ravens offense versus the Bill's
defense because I do agree that this is going to be the best run stopping defense the Bills
have faced.
They are going to have to come up with different ways.
This team, the Ravens does a better job of closing down on routes.
Josh Allen is enjoying the fourth or fifth best yards after catch of any quarterback
in the league right now.
And I don't think that that's going to continue this week.
I think that this, this is the kind of week where if the Bills have completions, unless
it's a blown coverage, which I think that you've aptly pointed out is a possibility
with this Ravens defense.
Unless it's a blown coverage and some with wide open where they shouldn't be, I do think
that this is the kind of game where like whatever people are getting when they catch
the ball is maybe all they're going to get because the Ravens team flows to the ball
and usually is pretty close in coverage.
I mean, I saw in the gaming into Cowboys, Dak Prescott was actually I'm pretty indifferent
on Dak Prescott.
I think he's a above average NFL starter.
I mean, he usually produces, you know, top top five, top 10 numbers in the league.
The thing I saw though is that he was like threading balls into plaster coverage over
and over and over.
He was hitting receivers, running backs, even full backs, like on their hands with a
DB draped all over them.
And so again, you know, the whole inflation of defense or inflation of passing yards
against statistic wasn't a lack of coverage.
It was often the quarterback making sort of dangerous and somewhat challenging throws
into coverage that was very tight.
So I expect that the bills are not going to enjoy yards after the catch as they have.
And so yeah, I think that it's going to be interesting.
I think we're going to have to see what Joe Brady and Josh Allen can do against a completely
different challenge on defense.
And then for the bills defense, I think that I don't think that they faced a reasonable
rushing attack since week one against the Cardinals.
And I think that the Cardinals offensive line was inferior compared to the Ravens offensive
line, even with some of the injuries that the Ravens are working through right now.
They have they have a bully, you know, bully front, I think they have more like the bills.
They tend to get larger, more athletic guys and and try to just road grade against you.
And so and then of course, Derek Henry, right?
Like Derek Henry plus Lamar Jackson and the point has been made by many in Bill's mafia,
many in Bill's media.
Well, the bills have had good plans for for Lamar Jackson.
They've had good plans to shut down Derek Henry.
They haven't had plans to shut down both in the same backfield.
I think that's the biggest wrinkle in what we saw the Ravens do against the Cowboys.
Um, was just absolutely wear them down.
I think the Cowboys were tired of tackling Derek Henry or trying to chase Lamar Jackson
after the first three series and spent the rest of the game getting punished.
Because it was simply it's just zone read the whole time.
It's either Lamar Jackson sticks it in Derek Henry's gut up the up the middle or goes and
check test the edge of your defense over and over and over again.
And over and over and over again, the Cowboys were guessing wrong on that play.
The the Ravens ran directly at Micah Parsons because he is undersized for his position.
And I worry a little bit that the Ravens might do the same toward AJ Epineza or Von Miller,
if they see them in the game, they're probably going to try to run away from Greg Russo because
I think he's one of the best zone read defending defensive ends in the NFL.
Um, but there are there's going to be some vulnerabilities, particularly in snaps where
Ed Oliver is able to be double teamed because this I love Ed.
I don't know that he's going to be able to split doubles against these interior offensive
alignment.
No, you're you're you're definitely right.
And when you add the QB design run game to what Baltimore is trying to do, um, a lot
of a lot of hay was made in that week one game against Kansas City where Lamar took
off and ran, I think it was 16 times.
So a lot of it in improvisational, but they have JJ built in and they are still kind of
finding their way with it.
This duo rushing attack between Lamar Jackson and Derek Henry that Todd Munkin, the OC
for Baltimore is still trying to kind of figure out, but you can see him fine tuning this
concept.
They have no problem even with Lamar's injury history now designing runs for him and on
design QB runs.
He has the highest success rate in the league at about 72.2%, which is more than even our
beloved Josh Allen.
So Munkin is starting to understand what he has as far as a rushing attack goes here.
So not only can Jackson break contain in an improvisational way and take off and test the
edges of your defense.
They're really trying to make you guess, is it going to go to Henry?
Is it going to be Jackson?
And then you really have two running backs in the backfield to stop there.
Add to the fact that Lamar Jackson JJ is an accurate passer to the areas of the field where
the bills right now have their most vulnerability because of injuries.
And that's the middle parts of the field.
The book on Lamar Jackson for most of his career was that he was a guy that could only
attack the middle of the field, a la to a tongue of a loa couldn't attack outside the
numbers.
Well, Lamar can attack outside the numbers, but he is still a very adept QB at attacking
the middle parts of the field.
Regardless of yardage from the line of scrimmage, he is an above average passer when attacking
all three levels of the mid parts of the field.
And it just so happens JJ.
That is where the Buffalo Bills have the most questions on this defense with their linebacker
core and that safety group.
It's going to be really interesting to see what the bills do here against Baltimore because
you've got a QB that can attack you in the ways that you are vulnerable.
And you've got a rushing game that is kind of like this two headed monster.
And the only thing I think that has kept it from being more effective JJ is the fact that
Monkens been a little bit predictable with some of the personnel schemes he's run out
there.
When Henry is out there and Baltimore is in heavy package, you know you're getting a
run.
When Justice Hill is out there and they're an 11 personnel in Baltimore, you know that
you're getting a pass.
That's really been the only thing I think that's kept this Baltimore offense honest
to some extent and kept them from being able to close out games against their opponents
when they do have a lead is the predictability of some of the scheme sets that Monkens is
calling.
Outside of that, this feels like an offensive attack that's really fine tuned to take advantage
of the bills.
I'm going to take a listen.
Zay Flowers, who both me and you loved in his draft year coming out, it is almost an unfair
advantage for him to have to flash him across the middle of field in an end cutting route.
His speed, his acceleration, his ability to get release and work inside leverage is for
my money, tops in the league for young wide receivers.
That's going to be a real challenge for this Buffalo Bill's zone heavy scheme too because
Dorian Williams to not bite on playfakes and catch Zay Flowers coming across the middle.
You got to rely on bail inspector be able to recognize some of these sets that Monkens
rolling out that have been predictable.
It's going to be a challenge for this Buffalo Bill's defense JJ in a lot of different ways.
Yeah, absolutely.
And I think he kept thinking though, I agree.
I love Zay Flowers coming out of the draft.
I think he's developed into exactly the type of pro that we thought he was going to.
But the thing I kept thinking about with this Ravens team is that their wide receiver core
is very, very small.
It's very small.
So like on on their off their offense, they have Zay Flowers, of course, Rashad Bateman,
Nelson Aguilore, I guess is a little bit bigger.
And then they have, of course, former Bill, former St. Deontay Hardy.
And it's just like, I know they have, you know, Mark Andrews, Isaiah Lickley and Charlie
Kohler as large tight end pass catchers who are also athletic.
But I was watching it, I was like, OK, unless they get supreme separation, I think this
is going to be an opportunity for the Bill's DBs and safeties for possible, you know, bully
moments where they strip, strip the ball out, different things like that.
I think that that was the thing that I thought of is that the Bill's defensive backfield
is is one, it's bigger.
And they've got a size advantage.
And then two, they're extremely physical.
And so I think that there's opportunities there in coverage for the Bill's to use their
physicality and really take it to a team that doesn't necessarily have, you know, the alpha
dog a one wide receiver who's going to like go up and and beat you on contested balls.
They're going to rely on separation.
And so again, to your point, I think it comes down to whether or not the safeties and linebackers
are squeezing the routes the right way.
And if they are, it's going to be probably a difficult time for for Lamar Jackson to
find anything open.
But I yeah, go ahead.
No, no, no, no, finish your thought.
Yeah.
Oh, I was just going to say, I don't I'm worried that that doesn't that that's not going to
matter because this Bill's defense is going to be giving up a lot of rushing yards.
That's my my main thought.
I agree.
No, I agree.
Again, I think it's going to be eerie how similar this game script is to Arizona.
I've said it a bunch of times and I'll stand behind it because I think first and foremost,
they're going to want to great this Buffalo Bill's defense and listen, Buffalo, at this
point, JJ, they are beyond stubborn.
We just have to say the word never is in there.
Never going to bring in an extra linebacker.
They're never going to play with an odd man front to adjust to some of these rushing attacks
they're going to face this season.
Buffalo has played in a standard nickel package on 71% of its snaps this season.
And on the other 29% of its snaps, it has played in a dime package.
They're allergic to playing any kind of four, three base or bringing in an extra linebacker
to help stymie some of these some of these rush heavy offenses that they faced early
on this season.
And it worked against Miami because it's a bad offensive line.
And it worked against Jacksonville because Jacksonville has no identity on offense, even
though again, they've got some talent on the offensive line and they've got some talent
in the backfield and Travis Etn.
This is going to be a test JJ to where we're really going to see how well this this defensive
scheme this DB defensive scheme holds up.
And I have a feeling this is going to be the first game where we really miss Taryn Johnson.
Like we miss him generally because he is not just probably the best player on that defense.
And I say that if Matt Milano was healthy, but he is also one of the best if not the
best nickel corners in the league.
He is such a unique player.
He basically plays like a linebacker.
He is the reason why the bills have been able to be so stubborn and staying in nickel sets
against in obvious run situations because of the way he plays the run.
This is really going to test Cam Lewis and Jomarcus Ingram.
I think in ways that they have not been tested yet.
And this is going to be a really big moment for both of those two players as they try
to in the aggregate replace what Taryn Johnson has brought to the squad.
Absolutely, and I do think that, you know, this will also be a pretty extreme test of
what what the heck can Taylor wrap into Marham Lynn do right?
Like what is their actual ceiling?
Oh, Rashad Bateman going to take the roof off that defense.
Like yeah.
Well, that's the thing is I think the bills have I mean they have played they have played
good I think Marvin Harrison Jr. is you know, showing up in that week one game.
I don't know how much of that was the bill's defensive scheme and how much of that was him
just kind of being a rook.
I think it was the ladder getting his feet under him.
I think we're going to look back and be like, thank God, Marvin Harrison Jr. didn't have
his shit together in week one.
Yeah, right.
Well, that's what I mean is like if that's the case, you know, then there are still questions
about this Buffalo bills pass coverage unit against fast able to separate receivers.
And so we're going to see kind of what that looks like.
I do have a lot of faith though, in the Buffalo bills front four and their ability to rush
the passer in this game because the Baltimore Ravens are a little bit banged up.
I mentioned they have a probably one of the better offensive lines that the bills have
seen, but looks like their left guard, their preferred left guard, Andrew Voorhees is doubtful
for the game.
Their center and the kind of heart of that that offensive line, Tyler Linderbaum, who's
excellent is questionable, but very likely to play, I believe.
And you know, Ronnie Stanley, long in the tooth, one of the elite tackles in the league
for a very long time, but definitely showing his age a little bit more left tackle, Daniel
Falele, who many Ravens fans would probably wish was replaced by Ben Cleveland in the
lineup as a right guard has, you know, at times struggled has, I think he came into the league
as a tackle and then was moved to guard.
And then their right tackle, Patrick McCurry, his has also shown some weakness here and there.
All of them, I think are better run run blockers than they are pass blockers.
But when you have a quarterback like Lamar Jackson, you don't necessarily worry so much
about, you know, holding up for eight seconds, because he's going to be making stuff happen
outside the pocket or he's going to break just break contain and get a get a first sound
with his legs.
So it's an interesting challenge.
I do think that, you know, this is a probably a game where we want to we want a loud game
from Greg Rousseau.
He was a little bit quieter last week, but he'll have opportunities against Patrick
McCurry and I'm really hopeful that he makes the most of them.
And you know, his length is going to be important in maintaining and containing Lamar Jackson
in the pocket.
If the bills can consistently get pressure with their front four and drop seven in a
coverage or get consistent pressure with their front four and passing downs and have an extra
helper from the safety or the corners or the linebackers in and fitting the run front,
I think that they're going to be good because that's the biggest thing that people don't
realize about stopping the run is it's not about, you know, run blitzes and sending six
or putting up a bare front and having five down linemen.
The actual answer to stopping the run and it's going to be so important against this
team is to have your front four win their one on one matchups and then insert a fifth
person into the into the front.
And so having that be, you know, Dorian Williams clicking and closing, triggering downhill,
having Balan Specter take, take an edge so that your line is kind of like shifting and
slanting and then having one of those players, whether that's Dequan Jones at Oliver, Greg
Russo, having one of those players just handily beat their block is how you get, you know,
tackles for loss in the backfield.
And so I'm hopeful and I believe in this defensive line.
Well, JJ, on that note, I have children awake in the house and I can hear them destroying
the living room.
So I think that's a good time to transition to prediction.
Sure to go wrong, my friend.
What do you say?
Understood.
Let's close this thing out.
Let's land this plane.
All right.
So the spread on this game, two and a half favoring Baltimore.
So Vegas Vegas thinks this is going to be a game where Baltimore announces itself with
authority and we see the Raven squad we've been waiting to see all season over under
on this game.
The first day is 46 and a half percent or 46 and a half points.
I'll tell you right now, I am smashing the over on this game with my score prediction.
I think we are in shootout territory and I think also early game of the year vibes with
this one.
It just feels like Baltimore ready to get right.
We're going to get their best shot.
The bills clicking on all cylinders.
You're going to get two teams performing at the height of their early season abilities
here.
So where do you want to go?
You want to go?
You want to give us a final score prediction first here?
Yeah.
So I think that I agree with you.
I think that the bills scoring over 30 is going to that streak is going to continue.
I'm saying it's going to be 37, which is a random score, a gummy type score, 37 Buffalo,
34 Ravens.
And it's absolutely going to be one of those games as a bills fan that you watch where
Josh Allen has to has to pull it out for us in the fourth quarter.
We're trailing in the third and fourth quarter and it's a bit of a scramble.
It's going to come down to a couple of absolute key plays.
I could see the bills losing this game, but I'm not picking that.
I'm not, you know, that's not my prediction.
My prediction is 37, 34 bills.
Yep.
My prediction here is Buffalo 34.
I agree with you.
I think their streak of scoring over 30 continues here.
And I'm going to go with Baltimore 28.
So I think the bills win.
I do think it comes down to some second half heroics from Josh Allen and listen, man, the
early parts of the season are really as teams are figuring their stuff out.
Do you have answers for what the opposing team is throwing at you?
And for three weeks, the Buffalo bills have had a different answer for how they have won
their football games each and every week.
And I think that's heartening to see.
It gives me a lot of confidence.
Like I said, it feels sustainable at this point, and I think the Buffalo bills are going
to meet the challenge of playing this Baltimore Ravens team, even as the Ravens really, you
could argue need this game more than the bills need this game at this point.
So I think the bills meet the level of intensity the Ravens bring.
And I think they pull one out here 34 to 28.
I love it.
You got any props?
I do.
And we're going to go with rushing because that I think is going to be a big theme for
both teams on both sides of the ball.
JJ, who will have more rushing yards at the end of the game?
Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen?
Oh, what an interesting twist.
It's a simple pick.
Yeah.
I'm going to say Lamar Jackson.
I agree.
I actually think I think this is going to be a game kind of like Kansas City where we
see him rush for over 100 yards and throw for over 100 yards.
So it's the it's the unique skill set that only a handful of QBs can bring to the table.
And it just so happens that we're going to watch two of those QBs in the same game.
Well, and I think in my prediction with the bills when I think that it might be the kind
of thing that Lamar Jackson running the football is often like Josh Allen running the football
in bills games.
It's when the defense of the opponent has taken away some other things that you want
to do and you're left with using the simple math problem of your QB as a runner to fix
the box count for yourself and allow yourself to have more blockers, more players out and
routes, you know, etc.
So that you are, you know, controlling the dynamic in the box.
I think that that's why I believe Lamar will have more rushing yards is because the bills
are going to do a decent enough job of taking away some of the things that the Baltimore
Ruins have to do, so they have to resort to it, whereas Josh running a little bit less,
maybe because I think Joe Brady is a better offensive coordinator and might have more
answers.
Yeah, absolutely.
Do you have a prop?
I have just one prop.
And it's a simple, you know, yes or no question or plus or minus.
Von Miller continues to sack streak and it has more than 0.5 sacks.
I want to say yes, because I think they're going to need it in this game, you know, and
it's interesting because I've watched a lot of film where I've seen the right side of
that Ravens offensive line really struggle on pass protection and I've seen Lamar.
Lamar's been hit a fair amount in the pocket this season.
We know he's got great escape ability, but anyone coming off the right side of that offensive
line, the defense is left, he's had a massive advantage.
I mean, they lined up Max Crosby all day and week too against that right side of the offensive
line and he made absolute hay in that week two game.
So I'm going to say yes.
And I wouldn't be surprised if we actually see a lot more of the Greg Russo, Von Miller
with Russo kicking in alignment against the right side of that offensive line to double
up on that advantage.
The NASCAR package.
Absolutely.
Yeah.
Absolutely.
I think it's going to be really interesting to see.
But yeah, I'm going to say over because I think they're going to need it.
All right.
I'm also smashing the over.
I'm just hope I'm just hopeful that I would like Von Miller to have like a 16 sack seat
like you have just like an incredibly productive season because the bills have an option to
get out of his contract on the end of this year.
I'm okay with them continuing to pay him and I'm okay with him hitting all of his incentives
and finishing his careers above low bill as a productive bass rusher.
So yeah, we're going to talk about that.
We can depart there because right now the bills have a lot of options.
11 million and cap room projected for 2025.
20 25 cutting Miller loose gets them another eight.
And I would actually like to see them test the free agent market because there's going
to be some decent pass rushers on the market this year.
So yeah, this is a conversation for another day.
Absolutely.
Oh, it's going to be fun.
I love I love Madden GM.
I know we're so far away from it though.
It's week three.
Come on.
We really are.
But we're bills fans.
We're used to being in off season mode.
We want me to say let's just live in the moment, man.
That's right.
All right, cool.
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And as always, go bills.
Go bills.