1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:10,800 Alright, welcome back to the Buffalo Bread Podcast, JJ back with you and excited this 2 00:00:10,800 --> 00:00:17,760 week to break down the upcoming Monday Night game against the Jaguars from Jacksonville, 3 00:00:17,760 --> 00:00:19,200 Florida. 4 00:00:19,200 --> 00:00:24,480 We are in week 3 and it is Sunday, September 22nd 5 00:00:24,480 --> 00:00:30,920 So let's talk about what this bill's team needs to do to fellow Jaguars who have been 6 00:00:30,920 --> 00:00:32,400 a bugaboo Dan. 7 00:00:32,400 --> 00:00:34,480 Haven't you noticed that? 8 00:00:34,480 --> 00:00:41,320 Yeah man, Dan Dawkins made a pretty funny joke in the pregame press conferences for 9 00:00:41,320 --> 00:00:42,320 this. 10 00:00:42,320 --> 00:00:46,480 Being like, I don't know if it's their uniforms, I don't know what it is, but the Jags are 11 00:00:46,480 --> 00:00:49,080 always just a weird one for the bills. 12 00:00:49,080 --> 00:00:53,520 Last year, you could chalk it up to the way the bills manage the travel schedule for the 13 00:00:53,520 --> 00:00:56,000 London game for sure. 14 00:00:56,000 --> 00:01:00,760 But also we don't want to discredit their former defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell 15 00:01:00,760 --> 00:01:05,900 with the defensive game plan that he had going against the bills. 16 00:01:05,900 --> 00:01:10,280 This year, it's a mostly new coaching staff. 17 00:01:10,280 --> 00:01:13,080 Caldwell I don't believe is with the team anymore. 18 00:01:13,080 --> 00:01:18,400 Doug Peterson feels like he is coaching for his job this season and the Jaguars have responded 19 00:01:18,400 --> 00:01:21,200 by laying an 0-2 egg to start the year. 20 00:01:21,200 --> 00:01:25,320 But JJ, it is not the defense that is the issue in Jacksonville. 21 00:01:25,320 --> 00:01:30,760 It appears to be the offense with one very, very interesting exception. 22 00:01:30,760 --> 00:01:36,040 That offense is struggling by most metrics to produce anything meaningful, including 23 00:01:36,040 --> 00:01:41,520 points on the board, save for one fast of their game, and that's the deep ball. 24 00:01:41,520 --> 00:01:48,000 So of course, I went to former bill, formerly departed beloved Bill Gabe Davis to see like, 25 00:01:48,000 --> 00:01:49,600 what is he doing differently this season? 26 00:01:49,600 --> 00:01:52,400 Might be helping Trevor Lawrence and it turns out not much. 27 00:01:52,400 --> 00:01:55,200 He has a catch rate right around 50%. 28 00:01:55,200 --> 00:01:59,200 And it's just one of those weird, flukey stats that you get in week two. 29 00:01:59,200 --> 00:02:05,960 So I am expecting JJ a much more well-rounded game plan with the extra day the Jags have 30 00:02:05,960 --> 00:02:07,520 to prepare for the bills. 31 00:02:07,520 --> 00:02:10,560 And I believe they're going to try to attack at all levels because they have a QB that 32 00:02:10,560 --> 00:02:12,480 is capable of doing so. 33 00:02:12,480 --> 00:02:14,640 So I'm excited to dig into it, man. 34 00:02:14,640 --> 00:02:16,440 Which side of the ball do you want to start on? 35 00:02:16,440 --> 00:02:20,320 Yeah, I mean, why don't we start with that, you kind of brought up the Jaguars offense 36 00:02:20,320 --> 00:02:22,080 against this bill's defense. 37 00:02:22,080 --> 00:02:23,640 Let's go that in that direction. 38 00:02:23,640 --> 00:02:24,640 And I agree with you. 39 00:02:24,640 --> 00:02:29,240 It's a weird thing where, you know, in the league and a lot of talk has happened this 40 00:02:29,240 --> 00:02:34,800 week about what's going on with the NFL, because teams are not necessarily ranking up the, 41 00:02:34,800 --> 00:02:40,160 you know, 300 yard passing days, and the, you know, long passing production, lots of 42 00:02:40,160 --> 00:02:41,160 scoring. 43 00:02:41,160 --> 00:02:45,840 The NFL has really been trying to fine tune towards for years, because it's so much more 44 00:02:45,840 --> 00:02:47,560 fun to watch. 45 00:02:47,560 --> 00:02:52,440 The NFL hasn't really been achieving those sort of big high shootout games, except for 46 00:02:52,440 --> 00:02:54,840 the New Orleans Saints. 47 00:02:54,840 --> 00:03:00,120 And but these Jaguars are one of the few teams that has, as you mentioned, having some success 48 00:03:00,120 --> 00:03:04,440 has been having some success in those long deep shots, which is exactly the kind of thing 49 00:03:04,440 --> 00:03:10,860 that the Buffalo Bill's defense has been fine tuned to never allow over the course of 50 00:03:10,860 --> 00:03:15,240 Sean McDermott's entire tenure in the organization. 51 00:03:15,240 --> 00:03:22,440 So that's an interesting kind of like, you know, unending, you know, momentum versus 52 00:03:22,440 --> 00:03:25,440 immovable object type matchup. 53 00:03:25,440 --> 00:03:26,440 And I'm excited to see it. 54 00:03:26,440 --> 00:03:32,840 I think that what we know from the bills is that they're still not going to have, of 55 00:03:32,840 --> 00:03:36,600 course, Matt Milano's on IR until probably December, but they're not going to have Terrell 56 00:03:36,600 --> 00:03:41,080 Bernard or Taryn Johnson for this one, which, you know, prior to last week, I would have 57 00:03:41,080 --> 00:03:43,920 said this is a crippling blow for the defense. 58 00:03:43,920 --> 00:03:45,760 There's no way they can pull this out. 59 00:03:45,760 --> 00:03:50,840 And then they went out on Thursday night without Terrell Bernard after the first quarter and, 60 00:03:50,840 --> 00:03:56,160 you know, without Taryn Johnson from the previous week and held their own and dominated 61 00:03:56,160 --> 00:04:00,560 in a lot of regards a high powered offense in the Miami Dolphins. 62 00:04:00,560 --> 00:04:07,880 I think that this Jacksonville Jaguars offense comparatively is a little bit better in the 63 00:04:07,880 --> 00:04:15,120 offensive line than the dolphins, a little bit worse in the passing game talent and 64 00:04:15,120 --> 00:04:17,880 probably a wash in the running, running game. 65 00:04:17,880 --> 00:04:22,760 Because I think that, you know, their line is definitely not proving out to be an excellent 66 00:04:22,760 --> 00:04:27,720 running team, but Travis Etienne is a very, you know, it's a very outstanding talent in 67 00:04:27,720 --> 00:04:28,720 that position. 68 00:04:28,720 --> 00:04:32,320 And I think their wide receiver core with Christian Kirk, Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas, 69 00:04:32,320 --> 00:04:35,400 Jr. has a lot of talent as well. 70 00:04:35,400 --> 00:04:39,720 I think that Bill's fans, you know, some people roll their eyes at Gabe Davis and I think 71 00:04:39,720 --> 00:04:40,720 does aggregate. 72 00:04:40,720 --> 00:04:44,120 He's a good third wide receiver in the league. 73 00:04:44,120 --> 00:04:46,400 I think that's his level. 74 00:04:46,400 --> 00:04:53,680 Yeah, JJ, the the run game was, I think, a great place to start with for a couple of 75 00:04:53,680 --> 00:04:54,680 reasons. 76 00:04:54,680 --> 00:04:59,160 One, I agree with you, Travis Etienne will not the threat to catch the ball out of the 77 00:04:59,160 --> 00:05:03,640 backfield that divine HN was last week. 78 00:05:03,640 --> 00:05:10,040 I do think is going to provide some interesting issues here for the Buffalo Bills defense. 79 00:05:10,040 --> 00:05:14,560 One thing that I think has remained consistent with the bills between the Cardinals game 80 00:05:14,560 --> 00:05:17,720 and the Dolphins game, and it's a limited sample size. 81 00:05:17,720 --> 00:05:24,520 They are giving up yards and they are giving up touchdowns to opposing teams running backs. 82 00:05:24,520 --> 00:05:29,120 And Etienne, while not necessarily the home run hitter, we thought he was going to be 83 00:05:29,120 --> 00:05:32,040 when he got drafted out of Clemson into the league. 84 00:05:32,040 --> 00:05:37,800 He is proven to be a high volume, high touch back for Jacksonville. 85 00:05:37,800 --> 00:05:40,360 His yards per carry, not great. 86 00:05:40,360 --> 00:05:46,240 He is also getting hit behind the line of scrimmage quicker than all but five other 87 00:05:46,240 --> 00:05:48,320 running backs in the league right now. 88 00:05:48,320 --> 00:05:51,960 So it's not like he has a whole other room to operate with this offensive line and so 89 00:05:51,960 --> 00:05:56,840 many new pieces still coming together and gelling, but it doesn't stop them from feeding 90 00:05:56,840 --> 00:05:57,840 him. 91 00:05:57,840 --> 00:06:01,680 What is interesting, JJ, is the amount of his snap share that's been taken by Tank 92 00:06:01,680 --> 00:06:08,600 Bigsby, who finds himself questionable for this game and limited via the injury report 93 00:06:08,600 --> 00:06:10,800 and practices throughout the week. 94 00:06:10,800 --> 00:06:15,600 When I read and the lead up to a lot of games that the bills play, I'll read a lot of opposing 95 00:06:15,600 --> 00:06:19,840 journalists and sports media guys takes that cover that team specifically. 96 00:06:19,840 --> 00:06:25,240 And there seems to be a lot of love for Tank Bigsby in Jacksonville. 97 00:06:25,240 --> 00:06:33,120 The only issue seems to be that ETN is so ingrained as like their Hoover Vacuum touch 98 00:06:33,120 --> 00:06:38,360 drawing guy is that they're having a hard time figuring out Bigsby and where they can 99 00:06:38,360 --> 00:06:40,040 integrate him in. 100 00:06:40,040 --> 00:06:44,980 And I think JJ, that is kind of what I look at when I look at the Jacksonville Jaguars 101 00:06:44,980 --> 00:06:51,160 on film is that they're a team that has a lot of pieces that when you look at it individually 102 00:06:51,160 --> 00:06:56,360 should be performing better than they are, the issue seems to be cohesion, which you 103 00:06:56,360 --> 00:06:59,080 could chalk up to coaching and Doug Peterson. 104 00:06:59,080 --> 00:07:04,000 It doesn't seem like the offensive scheme right now is necessarily cohesive. 105 00:07:04,000 --> 00:07:07,760 And it doesn't seem like they've done a good job integrating a lot of these new parts other 106 00:07:07,760 --> 00:07:10,680 than at the most rudimentary level. 107 00:07:10,680 --> 00:07:11,680 So this is where I'm concerned. 108 00:07:11,680 --> 00:07:15,640 Listen, Doug Peterson, I saw the Jacksonville Jaguars were, were probably going to be a 109 00:07:15,640 --> 00:07:16,640 dumpster fire this year. 110 00:07:16,640 --> 00:07:18,600 And I'm hoping I'm right. 111 00:07:18,600 --> 00:07:24,160 Oh, and three for this team, given the talent they've assembled on the roster, it feels 112 00:07:24,160 --> 00:07:27,040 like feels like a stretch. 113 00:07:27,040 --> 00:07:29,280 So mostly vibes. 114 00:07:29,280 --> 00:07:34,080 But if there were a game where the offense were to get it together, forget what we saw 115 00:07:34,080 --> 00:07:38,200 in that Miami game that was a short week from Miami. 116 00:07:38,200 --> 00:07:40,040 Their depth was really tested. 117 00:07:40,040 --> 00:07:43,160 It's a familiar opponent for us. 118 00:07:43,160 --> 00:07:47,560 Jacksonville seems to be the ideal trap game for the bills, a team with a little bit of 119 00:07:47,560 --> 00:07:53,800 extra time to prepare for a defense in Buffalo that we cannot ignore how depleted they are. 120 00:07:53,800 --> 00:07:58,600 And with Johnson and Bernard out for another game, this feels like another game where 121 00:07:58,600 --> 00:08:01,880 running backs will be featured. 122 00:08:01,880 --> 00:08:07,400 The bills will stubbornly stay in their, their two high sets or their nickel packages to 123 00:08:07,400 --> 00:08:09,280 alleviate the deep ball. 124 00:08:09,280 --> 00:08:12,360 But I think the Jaguars are going to take shots downfield. 125 00:08:12,360 --> 00:08:17,400 I think this is a game JJ the Jaguars are going to look to play in the absolute extremes 126 00:08:17,400 --> 00:08:18,400 of the field. 127 00:08:18,400 --> 00:08:21,640 They're going to look to pound and short yardage areas where they can. 128 00:08:21,640 --> 00:08:23,560 And then they're going to look to extend the field. 129 00:08:23,560 --> 00:08:27,080 I mean, they're missing Evan Ingram, who's one of their great over the middle weapons 130 00:08:27,080 --> 00:08:28,200 for this game. 131 00:08:28,200 --> 00:08:33,160 So I really do feel like this Jacksonville offense pound the rock and short yardage, 132 00:08:33,160 --> 00:08:36,160 three yards in a cloud of dust, and then they're going to bomb. 133 00:08:36,160 --> 00:08:41,240 And I think eventually that's going to become a lot for a depleted Buffalo bills defense 134 00:08:41,240 --> 00:08:42,240 to overcome. 135 00:08:42,240 --> 00:08:48,840 Yeah, I would agree, and I think that I would warn bills mafia to not presume that because 136 00:08:48,840 --> 00:08:54,320 this team was able to shut down an offense like the dolphins that shutting down an offense 137 00:08:54,320 --> 00:09:00,760 like the Jaguars is going to be a given because the Jaguars haven't scored more than 17 points 138 00:09:00,760 --> 00:09:04,760 in either of their two contests this year, the season. 139 00:09:04,760 --> 00:09:13,840 But they have a player, you know, at quarterback in Trevor Lawrence, who is not the type of, 140 00:09:13,840 --> 00:09:20,160 you know, Kyler Murray to attack Tagal Lavoa, those aren't quarterbacks that you necessarily 141 00:09:20,160 --> 00:09:21,680 have to guard the whole field. 142 00:09:21,680 --> 00:09:25,480 I think that Trevor Lawrence is more like a Josh Allen and maybe part of the reason 143 00:09:25,480 --> 00:09:31,840 the Jaguars have seen such a difficult puzzle to solve for the bills, even though it's not 144 00:09:31,840 --> 00:09:36,280 like been high scoring affairs, you know, slowing them down and keeping that, you know, 145 00:09:36,280 --> 00:09:39,400 they tend to stay on the field, they tend to kind of march the field and then the bills 146 00:09:39,400 --> 00:09:42,760 have shut them down in previous contests in the red zone. 147 00:09:42,760 --> 00:09:47,720 But ever since Trevor Lawrence has entered the league, I think the bills have lost against 148 00:09:47,720 --> 00:09:48,720 him every time. 149 00:09:48,720 --> 00:09:51,960 So it's a matter of in weird games. 150 00:09:51,960 --> 00:09:56,440 As you mentioned, when we open about the Andongans comments at Oliver was also in front of the 151 00:09:56,440 --> 00:10:00,960 podium talking about how weird the matchups have been. 152 00:10:00,960 --> 00:10:06,120 It's the type of thing where the bills shut down portions of the field by scheme because 153 00:10:06,120 --> 00:10:10,960 they've been facing quarterbacks and do face quarterbacks, especially in the division with 154 00:10:10,960 --> 00:10:20,000 Miami, the Patriots with, you know, Zach Jones previously or Zach Wilson, the the Jets with 155 00:10:20,000 --> 00:10:24,760 Zach Wilson, the Patriots with Mack Jones, I got that all bungled. 156 00:10:24,760 --> 00:10:28,120 But you know, they faced quarterbacks without huge arm talent. 157 00:10:28,120 --> 00:10:30,840 Trevor Lawrence has a huge arm talent for the Jaguars. 158 00:10:30,840 --> 00:10:37,680 So they can't necessarily take away his first read, cinch down on routes requiring a very, 159 00:10:37,680 --> 00:10:42,200 very, you know, accurate tight window throw and know that the ball's not going to end 160 00:10:42,200 --> 00:10:45,840 up going there because of a proximity of coverage. 161 00:10:45,840 --> 00:10:52,480 These bills defenders will absolutely need, you know, to be stuck to their man like Velcro, 162 00:10:52,480 --> 00:10:57,280 if they want to stop him from throwing to options because he will throw some kind of 163 00:10:57,280 --> 00:11:02,800 Josh Allen risky balls into tight coverage and he will hit over the top of where you 164 00:11:02,800 --> 00:11:04,760 think a quarterback shouldn't be able to hit. 165 00:11:04,760 --> 00:11:08,880 So those are the big, I think those are the big risks I see for this, you know, this bill's 166 00:11:08,880 --> 00:11:12,080 defense against the Jaguars. 167 00:11:12,080 --> 00:11:15,960 And I do think that, you know, as you mentioned, the injuries might come to bite them this 168 00:11:15,960 --> 00:11:17,460 week. 169 00:11:17,460 --> 00:11:22,800 I think it's really going to come down to whether or not, you know, Greg Russo, DeQuand Jones 170 00:11:22,800 --> 00:11:30,600 at Oliver, AJ Ponezza slash von Miller, as the starting four are going to be able to 171 00:11:30,600 --> 00:11:35,360 affect the quarterback specifically up the middle. 172 00:11:35,360 --> 00:11:40,600 Because the Jacksonville and Jaguars have have kind of decent have a good left tackle 173 00:11:40,600 --> 00:11:45,920 and Cam Robinson, their left guard is solid and as reclaving, but then we know Mitch Morris, 174 00:11:45,920 --> 00:11:49,880 we know he's a little bit undersized and athletic. 175 00:11:49,880 --> 00:11:54,080 Brandon Scherf, I think is a, he played the majority of his career with the Washington 176 00:11:54,080 --> 00:12:01,000 commanders, probably has passed the kind of nadir of his career and is on the down slope. 177 00:12:01,000 --> 00:12:05,360 And Anton Harrison, their right tackle has at times looked like a complete mess. 178 00:12:05,360 --> 00:12:10,520 So I think this is a game that, you know, von Miller, AJ Ponezza, let's see what you 179 00:12:10,520 --> 00:12:15,240 got because that's going to be the secret for the bill's defense. 180 00:12:15,240 --> 00:12:19,360 Because I do think that the linebackers might be picked on a little bit. 181 00:12:19,360 --> 00:12:24,400 I'm just not as scared as I have been about other offenses because they seem the Jaguars 182 00:12:24,400 --> 00:12:27,840 don't seem to have a good identity and it's always changing. 183 00:12:27,840 --> 00:12:28,840 Absolutely. 184 00:12:28,840 --> 00:12:32,840 And I think part of the problems with establishing their identity has been that offensive line 185 00:12:32,840 --> 00:12:34,280 that you mentioned. 186 00:12:34,280 --> 00:12:38,640 Unlike Arizona, who we previewed earlier in the season, there's some names on that offensive 187 00:12:38,640 --> 00:12:43,760 line that are familiar, that have some decent resumes or at least athletic profiles in this 188 00:12:43,760 --> 00:12:44,760 league. 189 00:12:44,760 --> 00:12:52,360 And JJ hasn't borne fruit, I mentioned Travis Etienne being contacted behind the line of 190 00:12:52,360 --> 00:12:55,280 scrimmage so frequently. 191 00:12:55,280 --> 00:12:58,880 Trevor Lawrence has the highest sacrate in the league and it's not because he's holding 192 00:12:58,880 --> 00:13:02,200 on to the ball at a Justin Fields S-clip. 193 00:13:02,200 --> 00:13:06,960 He's getting rid of it in 2.7, 2.8 seconds, which tells me two things. 194 00:13:06,960 --> 00:13:11,280 His guys are not getting a lot of separation, which shocker Gabe Davis is on this team, 195 00:13:11,280 --> 00:13:12,960 not a big separation guy. 196 00:13:12,960 --> 00:13:19,600 But two, he's also under duress on a high amount of his drop backs, which has led to 197 00:13:19,600 --> 00:13:22,800 his 51% completion rate. 198 00:13:22,800 --> 00:13:29,200 I think if the Buffalo Bills defensive line fails to get push and fails to penetrate into 199 00:13:29,200 --> 00:13:33,480 the backfield, it actually could be a long day for them. 200 00:13:33,480 --> 00:13:39,440 The Jacksonville Jaguars have been waiting for a game to allow Trevor Lawrence some time 201 00:13:39,440 --> 00:13:43,520 to see Routes develop, throw some guys open, and he just hasn't had it through the first 202 00:13:43,520 --> 00:13:45,520 two games. 203 00:13:45,520 --> 00:13:50,240 The Bills do not want to be a get right game for the Jacksonville offensive line. 204 00:13:50,240 --> 00:13:53,920 They want to keep the pressure coming and they want to continue to sac Lawrence, who's 205 00:13:53,920 --> 00:13:57,960 already been sac seven times this season across two games. 206 00:13:57,960 --> 00:13:58,960 Absolutely. 207 00:13:58,960 --> 00:14:03,040 And I think as I mentioned, that's sort of the first place I'd say is a key for the 208 00:14:03,040 --> 00:14:10,840 Bills is to really help their coverage units with shutting down this passing game because 209 00:14:10,840 --> 00:14:16,720 with that preference for the Jaguars to kind of hit those deep hole shots and the Bills 210 00:14:16,720 --> 00:14:22,560 kind of still working through developing a new safety tandem in the back end and how 211 00:14:22,560 --> 00:14:28,200 they play together in Damar, Hamlin and Taylor Rap, I think it's really about, you know, 212 00:14:28,200 --> 00:14:34,280 a hay offensive pass rush, you know, organic four man off offensive pass rush or simulated 213 00:14:34,280 --> 00:14:39,400 four man offensive pass rush with an end dropping into coverage or tackle dropping into the 214 00:14:39,400 --> 00:14:44,080 middle hook zone and somebody else coming from the edge. 215 00:14:44,080 --> 00:14:50,280 You got to get it done because the routes they want to hit are two plus second developing 216 00:14:50,280 --> 00:14:51,400 routes. 217 00:14:51,400 --> 00:14:56,040 And I think that's the one thing that has been such a criticism of Trevor Lawrence, not 218 00:14:56,040 --> 00:15:02,720 just this season, but has in most of his career is that he tends to leave clean pockets too 219 00:15:02,720 --> 00:15:03,720 early. 220 00:15:03,720 --> 00:15:07,680 He he tends to sometimes run into sacks. 221 00:15:07,680 --> 00:15:12,600 And he tends to sometimes, you know, put the ball in the dirt when when he's rushed 222 00:15:12,600 --> 00:15:13,720 and kind of scrambling. 223 00:15:13,720 --> 00:15:18,160 So I think those are all things that the Bills defense can really feast on. 224 00:15:18,160 --> 00:15:22,360 But I agree that it's going to be the kind of thing that's going to test the Bills over 225 00:15:22,360 --> 00:15:23,360 the top. 226 00:15:23,360 --> 00:15:28,280 Yeah, I think that the, you know, that's kind of that's all I have about the Jacksonville 227 00:15:28,280 --> 00:15:29,280 Jaguars offense. 228 00:15:29,280 --> 00:15:31,640 I think they're going to try some screen game stuff. 229 00:15:31,640 --> 00:15:36,080 They're going to try to do to hit the Bills and in the linebackers. 230 00:15:36,080 --> 00:15:42,120 I think it's a huge benefit to the Bills that the Jaguars top tight end target Evan 231 00:15:42,120 --> 00:15:43,800 Angrum is out. 232 00:15:43,800 --> 00:15:48,080 He had a decent game against the Bills in London last year, but he he's not going to 233 00:15:48,080 --> 00:15:49,080 be out out there. 234 00:15:49,080 --> 00:15:53,720 So, you know, next man up for them in Brenton Strange, who's looked solid. 235 00:15:53,720 --> 00:15:58,160 So I think that they're probably going to try to manipulate that for the second level 236 00:15:58,160 --> 00:16:02,840 and hit some of those shots as well as as I mentioned the screen game and then over 237 00:16:02,840 --> 00:16:03,840 the top. 238 00:16:03,840 --> 00:16:04,840 Yep, absolutely. 239 00:16:04,840 --> 00:16:09,720 JJ, I think that's a good point to transition over to the other side of the ball here. 240 00:16:09,720 --> 00:16:14,400 And let's talk about what J a 17 and this Buffalo Bills offense is going to do against 241 00:16:14,400 --> 00:16:16,560 this Jacksonville defense. 242 00:16:16,560 --> 00:16:26,400 JJ Jacksonville's defense has been stout when it comes to points allowed this season. 243 00:16:26,400 --> 00:16:30,680 They did a great job against Miami in week one, though we saw what Miami was in week 244 00:16:30,680 --> 00:16:32,560 two on Thursday night. 245 00:16:32,560 --> 00:16:37,240 I do think it begs the question is is Miami's offense just not deep enough, right? 246 00:16:37,240 --> 00:16:41,960 And that's only a question we're going to get answered as the season goes on to produce 247 00:16:41,960 --> 00:16:44,760 the way they produced last season. 248 00:16:44,760 --> 00:16:47,360 And then they played, what was it Cleveland, I think? 249 00:16:47,360 --> 00:16:49,400 Yep, Cleveland in week two. 250 00:16:49,400 --> 00:16:54,200 And DeSean Watson looked great in the first half of that game and then looked like DeSean 251 00:16:54,200 --> 00:16:57,320 Watson and terrible in the second half of that game. 252 00:16:57,320 --> 00:17:04,040 So the Jacksonville Jaguars defense JJ is is a solid unit and stats over two weeks don't 253 00:17:04,040 --> 00:17:08,800 necessarily tell the full story of this group because again, there's names on the roster. 254 00:17:08,800 --> 00:17:13,240 They've got a very good pass rush, a strong defensive line. 255 00:17:13,240 --> 00:17:18,240 They have been middle of the road and pressure rates middle of the road against the run. 256 00:17:18,240 --> 00:17:22,360 But this is a team again that seems to find a different gear and level of success when 257 00:17:22,360 --> 00:17:23,360 they play the bills. 258 00:17:23,360 --> 00:17:26,640 And to me, JJ, that's going to start in the past game. 259 00:17:26,640 --> 00:17:29,080 Now, the bills are going to want to run the ball. 260 00:17:29,080 --> 00:17:32,160 Everybody knows that Brady is going to want to try to run the ball and this Jacksonville 261 00:17:32,160 --> 00:17:33,160 defense. 262 00:17:33,160 --> 00:17:36,280 And again, they have been middle of the road there. 263 00:17:36,280 --> 00:17:43,000 But the Jaguar secondary is going to present some opportunities for the bills in man coverage 264 00:17:43,000 --> 00:17:46,400 to get some get some shots downfield. 265 00:17:46,400 --> 00:17:53,520 The Jags play man coverage JJ at a 52.4 percent clip, which is one of the highest in the league. 266 00:17:53,520 --> 00:17:57,320 And there are two outside corners Tyson Campbell and Montero Brown. 267 00:17:57,320 --> 00:17:59,080 They play press man. 268 00:17:59,080 --> 00:18:03,040 It rates at 62 and 54 percent respectively. 269 00:18:03,040 --> 00:18:07,400 My mind JJ immediately goes to what are we going to see at a Keon Coleman here? 270 00:18:07,400 --> 00:18:11,400 Because the book on Coleman is that he kind of disappears against press man. 271 00:18:11,400 --> 00:18:16,760 At least he did in college and the bills, I think, rightfully so, have given him a large 272 00:18:16,760 --> 00:18:22,720 chunk of the snap share to allow him to get his legs underneath him in the pro game. 273 00:18:22,720 --> 00:18:28,880 This is going to be such an interesting test for Coleman JJ, because it is literally a scheme 274 00:18:28,880 --> 00:18:35,040 and personnel that is built to exploit his greatest weakness, at least his greatest weaknesses, 275 00:18:35,040 --> 00:18:38,400 according to his draft report coming out of college. 276 00:18:38,400 --> 00:18:43,120 For me, JJ, I think the bills will have success running the ball, but this game is all about 277 00:18:43,120 --> 00:18:46,280 taking taking their shots in the past game, too. 278 00:18:46,280 --> 00:18:49,560 And I think it's going to be interesting to see how these pieces and parts match up for 279 00:18:49,560 --> 00:18:50,560 that. 280 00:18:50,560 --> 00:18:52,240 So where do you want to start? 281 00:18:52,240 --> 00:18:55,520 You want to start with the past catchers, or do you want to start with the run game, 282 00:18:55,520 --> 00:18:57,760 as far as keys to the game for this bill's office? 283 00:18:57,760 --> 00:18:59,120 I think we should start with the run game. 284 00:18:59,120 --> 00:19:03,600 I think, you know, it's no surprise to the listeners that JJ wants to start with the 285 00:19:03,600 --> 00:19:04,800 trenches. 286 00:19:04,800 --> 00:19:09,960 I think that, you know, for this Jacksonville Jaguars defense, what we should be paying 287 00:19:09,960 --> 00:19:12,160 attention to is those defensive tackles. 288 00:19:12,160 --> 00:19:14,760 Devon Hamilton and Eric Armstead. 289 00:19:14,760 --> 00:19:17,680 Eric Armstead can have some play out at defensive end. 290 00:19:17,680 --> 00:19:21,160 Are there front two, two kind of players? 291 00:19:21,160 --> 00:19:25,400 And then they have Jeremiah Ledbetter and Roy Robertson Harris coming in behind. 292 00:19:25,400 --> 00:19:29,200 It's a non-remarkable defensive tackle group. 293 00:19:29,200 --> 00:19:33,560 I think that their defensive end, Josh Heinz Allen, who, by the way, you know, changed 294 00:19:33,560 --> 00:19:37,960 his name because our Josh Allen was better and he was getting no publicity at all as 295 00:19:37,960 --> 00:19:41,560 Josh Allen, the defensive end. 296 00:19:41,560 --> 00:19:46,960 So Josh Heinz Allen and Tramon Walker, or Trayvon Walker, a first pick from a couple 297 00:19:46,960 --> 00:19:49,600 of years ago, they're good. 298 00:19:49,600 --> 00:19:50,600 They're very good. 299 00:19:50,600 --> 00:19:52,600 I think that there's a lot of danger there for the bills. 300 00:19:52,600 --> 00:19:58,760 It's going to be a true test of Deion Dawkins and Spencer Brown now both making, you know, 301 00:19:58,760 --> 00:20:03,840 15 tackle and money in the league to shut down this pass rusher or neutralize those 302 00:20:03,840 --> 00:20:05,520 guys in the run game. 303 00:20:05,520 --> 00:20:10,040 But I think that there's, you know, the defensive tackle limitation for the Jaguars is that 304 00:20:10,040 --> 00:20:16,640 they have guys that are just sort of boulders in the run game, but they're not penetrating 305 00:20:16,640 --> 00:20:17,920 style defensive tackle. 306 00:20:17,920 --> 00:20:25,240 So I think that setting the depth of the pocket is going to be easier for the bills, interior 307 00:20:25,240 --> 00:20:31,960 offensive line that it may have been in previous, you know, matchups, but with Christian Wilkins 308 00:20:31,960 --> 00:20:37,720 leaving the Dolphins, I don't think that they've been truly tested so far this year. 309 00:20:37,720 --> 00:20:40,160 So it's going to be an interesting, interesting matchup. 310 00:20:40,160 --> 00:20:45,200 I think that there's opportunities, especially because Trayvon Walker and Josh Heinz Allen 311 00:20:45,200 --> 00:20:47,200 can over pursue. 312 00:20:47,200 --> 00:20:52,720 So if there's a week for the bills to do some kind of tunnel screens, mid screens, different 313 00:20:52,720 --> 00:20:58,280 things that are taking advantage of a fast charging defensive end, I think this is a 314 00:20:58,280 --> 00:21:00,960 great, great week for it. 315 00:21:00,960 --> 00:21:07,320 Additionally, I think that one, you know, one thing that I think is worth noting about 316 00:21:07,320 --> 00:21:13,840 this base four, three defense for the Jaguars is that they are missing their top corner 317 00:21:13,840 --> 00:21:14,840 Tyson Campbell. 318 00:21:14,840 --> 00:21:16,480 He's on IR for this week. 319 00:21:16,480 --> 00:21:21,600 And so they're playing Monterre Brown and Ronald Darby, who the bills, you know, was 320 00:21:21,600 --> 00:21:23,880 a former second round pick of the bills. 321 00:21:23,880 --> 00:21:28,640 But I would say is, you know, has had a good career, but it is late in his career and probably 322 00:21:28,640 --> 00:21:32,560 has lost a step as the top outside corners. 323 00:21:32,560 --> 00:21:36,720 And then their nickel back is Jerry and Jones, who has looked promising, but is also very 324 00:21:36,720 --> 00:21:37,720 young. 325 00:21:37,720 --> 00:21:41,160 So there's definitely opportunities in coverage. 326 00:21:41,160 --> 00:21:46,520 Their safety pair is Andre Cisco out of Syracuse and many of our listeners probably have affinity 327 00:21:46,520 --> 00:21:47,520 towards Syracuse. 328 00:21:47,520 --> 00:21:53,040 He's been a great kind of talent in the league since he enters about six feet to two 10, 329 00:21:53,040 --> 00:21:56,320 which you like your standard traditional safety. 330 00:21:56,320 --> 00:21:59,600 And then Antonio Johnson, who's sort of long and lean. 331 00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:05,920 He came out of Texas A&M last season and has been solid, but I would say not spectacular. 332 00:22:05,920 --> 00:22:08,120 So Andre Cisco is really the talent back there. 333 00:22:08,120 --> 00:22:09,600 They've done all savagery. 334 00:22:09,600 --> 00:22:15,840 They picked up in free agency from Green Bay, but he's been questionable all week and got 335 00:22:15,840 --> 00:22:17,640 dinged up last week. 336 00:22:17,640 --> 00:22:21,040 So to Sean Gibson seniors on their team, but he's suspended right now. 337 00:22:21,040 --> 00:22:23,720 They have Andrew Wingard, who's on IR. 338 00:22:23,720 --> 00:22:28,840 So like they're a little bit banged up in a couple of different layers in the defense. 339 00:22:28,840 --> 00:22:29,840 Absolutely. 340 00:22:29,840 --> 00:22:33,600 And with some of these mix and match depth pieces that they've got going in the secondary 341 00:22:33,600 --> 00:22:38,840 for themselves, I think it's a great opportunity, JJ, to exploit the play action game. 342 00:22:38,840 --> 00:22:45,080 Josh Allen, great play action QB play action has been featured so heavily in this Joe Brady 343 00:22:45,080 --> 00:22:46,880 led scheme. 344 00:22:46,880 --> 00:22:52,160 And this is an area where through two games consistently, the Jaguars have really struggled 345 00:22:52,160 --> 00:22:54,840 against opposing units. 346 00:22:54,840 --> 00:22:59,600 The Buffalo bills, JJ, are number one in passing efficiency out of play action through two 347 00:22:59,600 --> 00:23:00,960 weeks. 348 00:23:00,960 --> 00:23:06,400 And the Jacksonville Jaguars are number 24 in defending play action passes. 349 00:23:06,400 --> 00:23:11,720 I think especially with Campbell out, there's going to be some opportunities for the bills 350 00:23:11,720 --> 00:23:12,720 to exploit. 351 00:23:12,720 --> 00:23:18,000 You know, an interesting area where the Jacksonville Jaguars have shown a lot of strength is defending 352 00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:20,840 opposing teams tight ends. 353 00:23:20,840 --> 00:23:26,480 Currently by DVOA, they're a top 10 unit number nine specifically, shutting down opposing 354 00:23:26,480 --> 00:23:27,640 teams tight ends. 355 00:23:27,640 --> 00:23:34,560 Now again, they've played the Browns, and they have played the the dolphins that because 356 00:23:34,560 --> 00:23:39,920 of the injuries to who's the tight end for Cleveland and Joku. 357 00:23:39,920 --> 00:23:40,920 Yeah. 358 00:23:40,920 --> 00:23:41,920 Yeah. 359 00:23:41,920 --> 00:23:46,960 And because of the injuries there and because of the lack of any meaningful tight end talent 360 00:23:46,960 --> 00:23:51,280 in Miami, I do not consider John Doosmith a great tight end talent. 361 00:23:51,280 --> 00:23:57,200 A lot of that could be just, you know, stat sort of skewing because it's a small sample 362 00:23:57,200 --> 00:23:59,320 size against two really bad teams. 363 00:23:59,320 --> 00:24:04,160 So if I'm the bills, I'm not letting that deter me from featuring Dalton Kincaid, especially 364 00:24:04,160 --> 00:24:08,600 with his ability to get space against man coverage and exploit the scene. 365 00:24:08,600 --> 00:24:10,720 So I want to see a lot of play action, dude. 366 00:24:10,720 --> 00:24:15,280 I want to see James Cook get his touches out of the backfield in the passing game as well. 367 00:24:15,280 --> 00:24:19,440 And I really want to see a heavy dose of Dalton Kincaid, which will hopefully open things 368 00:24:19,440 --> 00:24:22,240 up for the bills a little bit downfield. 369 00:24:22,240 --> 00:24:27,800 And JJ is we are two games into the season, and there is a lot to be surprised and excited 370 00:24:27,800 --> 00:24:30,400 about about this Buffalo Bill squad. 371 00:24:30,400 --> 00:24:36,440 We still have not seen a team that is going to that has tested them and their ability to 372 00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:39,400 really push the ball downfield in the passing game. 373 00:24:39,400 --> 00:24:45,120 I don't know if the Jaguars are going to be that opponent this week, but it still remains 374 00:24:45,120 --> 00:24:51,360 to me an unanswered question is how effective is this Brady scheme when teams decide to load 375 00:24:51,360 --> 00:24:56,920 up the box and shut down the run, how effective it can be and how effective these skill position 376 00:24:56,920 --> 00:25:01,520 players can be on the bills and exploiting the middle to intermediate and deep parts 377 00:25:01,520 --> 00:25:04,000 of the field in the past game. 378 00:25:04,000 --> 00:25:10,000 I'd like to see some of those concerns on my part well this game, but I do think just 379 00:25:10,000 --> 00:25:14,200 because of the way this Jacksonville defense is stacking up from a profile standpoint, 380 00:25:14,200 --> 00:25:17,960 I think we're going to see a heavy dose of James Cook in the run game, heavy dose of 381 00:25:17,960 --> 00:25:23,560 James Cook in the past catching game, play action and then feature of Dalton Kincaid. 382 00:25:23,560 --> 00:25:29,320 Yeah, I think that what we haven't seen, I mean, the season is so, so, you know, new 383 00:25:29,320 --> 00:25:32,800 still with only two weeks in the books for the bills. 384 00:25:32,800 --> 00:25:38,400 But what we haven't seen yet is a game where the Buffalo bills have to answer the question 385 00:25:38,400 --> 00:25:44,280 of, you know, finding a new way to win with their past only, right, like every single 386 00:25:44,280 --> 00:25:49,360 week, even even in a comeback win against the Cardinals week one, who in week two showed 387 00:25:49,360 --> 00:25:51,320 a lot more, you know, juice. 388 00:25:51,320 --> 00:25:57,440 So whether it was an outlier or they're a much better team is still kind of set to be 389 00:25:57,440 --> 00:25:58,440 answered. 390 00:25:58,440 --> 00:26:02,480 But the bills haven't had to answer the question of how do you win without James Cook getting 391 00:26:02,480 --> 00:26:04,640 seven or eight yards per touch? 392 00:26:04,640 --> 00:26:09,640 They've been incredibly efficient on skipping third down altogether, but they've been pretty 393 00:26:09,640 --> 00:26:12,080 poor on third down when they've had to convert them. 394 00:26:12,080 --> 00:26:14,160 The bill's offense has across two weeks. 395 00:26:14,160 --> 00:26:18,520 So it's really for them, their ball control moving down the field has been on first and 396 00:26:18,520 --> 00:26:19,520 second down. 397 00:26:19,520 --> 00:26:22,920 And then they've been sort of stalled if a team can get them to third. 398 00:26:22,920 --> 00:26:26,960 I think that the Jaguars have the kind of defense that, you know, as you mentioned, 399 00:26:26,960 --> 00:26:29,760 are excellent in defending the tight end, the middle middle of the field. 400 00:26:29,760 --> 00:26:36,440 And I think that's because their linebackers, uh, FOIA, a Luikun and, um, Devin Lloyd, Devin 401 00:26:36,440 --> 00:26:38,400 Lloyd has, has looked outstanding this year. 402 00:26:38,400 --> 00:26:42,560 I think that you can pour a lot of dirt on the Jaguars for their performance, but you 403 00:26:42,560 --> 00:26:45,600 can't necessarily pour any dirt on either of the linebackers. 404 00:26:45,600 --> 00:26:49,120 FOIA, a Luikun or Devin Lloyd have looked awesome. 405 00:26:49,120 --> 00:26:53,680 Chad Mooma, um, is their kind of third linebacker that'll come in situationally. 406 00:26:53,680 --> 00:26:57,280 He's, he's familiar with Josh Allen having played together at Wyoming. 407 00:26:57,280 --> 00:27:04,200 Um, I think for one season, uh, yeah, so it's the kind of thing where like they have some 408 00:27:04,200 --> 00:27:09,520 skilled players and they have kind of the alternative to what the bills have, which 409 00:27:09,520 --> 00:27:11,800 is all of their linebackers are healthy right now. 410 00:27:11,800 --> 00:27:14,960 So they get to pick from their best talents and they have some talent there. 411 00:27:14,960 --> 00:27:21,640 So I don't expect the bills to be able to manipulate or hurt them in that middle range. 412 00:27:21,640 --> 00:27:25,480 It's really, I think, gonna be closer to the line of scrimmage and then over the top behind 413 00:27:25,480 --> 00:27:30,320 the corners in front of the safeties is where the bills are probably gonna make their most 414 00:27:30,320 --> 00:27:31,560 hay, but, but we'll see. 415 00:27:31,560 --> 00:27:37,880 I think that, you know, the Cleveland Browns, even with, you know, uh, Watson at quarterback 416 00:27:37,880 --> 00:27:43,120 looking like Dashaun Watson has looked, which is inconsistent and pretty awful at times. 417 00:27:43,120 --> 00:27:48,560 Um, they were able to get like six or seven people touches and over 50 yards, um, in that 418 00:27:48,560 --> 00:27:52,040 game against the Jaguars as low scoring as it was. 419 00:27:52,040 --> 00:27:56,640 So there's definitely opportunities, I think that, you know, um, the weakness of this D 420 00:27:56,640 --> 00:27:59,920 defensive team is probably at the tackle position. 421 00:27:59,920 --> 00:28:03,440 Uh, and then also it's, it's in the corners. 422 00:28:03,440 --> 00:28:07,120 Um, those are the two places I would attack is if you're going to run the ball, establish 423 00:28:07,120 --> 00:28:09,400 the run, go up the, you know, go up the gut. 424 00:28:09,400 --> 00:28:14,080 And then if you're going to, um, go over the top, you could probably make some hay against 425 00:28:14,080 --> 00:28:15,080 these corners. 426 00:28:15,080 --> 00:28:16,600 Absolutely, man. 427 00:28:16,600 --> 00:28:17,600 Absolutely. 428 00:28:17,600 --> 00:28:23,040 I think that is, is efficient a breakdown JJ we can give on this game. 429 00:28:23,040 --> 00:28:28,080 Um, cause again, so many, so many of the Jags bills games that they have played in recent 430 00:28:28,080 --> 00:28:32,920 memory have had nothing to do with the matchup on paper and everything to do with the game 431 00:28:32,920 --> 00:28:36,560 script and some of the weirdness of the game script that they've encountered the London 432 00:28:36,560 --> 00:28:41,760 factor last season, whatever the hell happened in Jacksonville a couple of years ago when 433 00:28:41,760 --> 00:28:44,120 the Jags were still under urban Meyer. 434 00:28:44,120 --> 00:28:48,680 Like there have just been a lot of odd game scripts between these two teams where the 435 00:28:48,680 --> 00:28:52,600 matchup on paper never really seemed to come to fruition on the field. 436 00:28:52,600 --> 00:28:57,200 So, so I am ready, my friend, if you are to move on to some predictions, sure to go wrong 437 00:28:57,200 --> 00:28:58,720 to wrap this thing up. 438 00:28:58,720 --> 00:29:01,760 Are you ready to land this plane, my friend? 439 00:29:01,760 --> 00:29:02,760 Zoom, zoom. 440 00:29:02,760 --> 00:29:03,760 Yeah. 441 00:29:03,760 --> 00:29:04,760 Um, yeah. 442 00:29:04,760 --> 00:29:09,000 I mean, just to kind of recap for everybody, the last three times these teams met, uh, 443 00:29:09,000 --> 00:29:16,040 the bills lost to the Jaguars 10 to three in the, in the first season of, of, uh, coach 444 00:29:16,040 --> 00:29:20,320 McDermott being at the helm where the Tyrod Taylor brought them to break the drought. 445 00:29:20,320 --> 00:29:26,560 They got a wild card matchup against the Jaguars, uh, and lose in a completely inept offensive 446 00:29:26,560 --> 00:29:30,240 outing in, in Jacksonville, um, 10 to three. 447 00:29:30,240 --> 00:29:32,680 Then they met in, uh, London last year. 448 00:29:32,680 --> 00:29:34,440 Oh, did they meet one more time? 449 00:29:34,440 --> 00:29:35,440 Oh yeah. 450 00:29:35,440 --> 00:29:38,960 Before, urban Meyer, urban Meyer, didn't the urban Meyer go away? 451 00:29:38,960 --> 00:29:42,120 The one in 16 and the bills were the only team he beat. 452 00:29:42,120 --> 00:29:45,920 He went to, I want to say he went like two and 11 and they can't him. 453 00:29:45,920 --> 00:29:47,040 Then they can him. 454 00:29:47,040 --> 00:29:52,120 So one of his two wins as a, as an NFL coach were against these Buffalo bills. 455 00:29:52,120 --> 00:29:56,840 Um, when they went to Jacksonville again, they traveled to Jacksonville, uh, and lost 456 00:29:56,840 --> 00:30:01,040 that game nine to six, which was absolutely abysmal. 457 00:30:01,040 --> 00:30:04,520 And that was a game that Josh Allen, our Josh Allen played in. 458 00:30:04,520 --> 00:30:07,360 And so did their Josh Allen before he changed his name. 459 00:30:07,360 --> 00:30:10,920 Uh, and that was the Josh Allen intercepts Josh Allen game. 460 00:30:10,920 --> 00:30:11,920 Yes. 461 00:30:11,920 --> 00:30:14,640 And so their Josh Allen played very well on that game. 462 00:30:14,640 --> 00:30:20,480 He destroyed the bills and it was a, um, it was one of the hardest games to watch, I think 463 00:30:20,480 --> 00:30:22,160 as a bills fan. 464 00:30:22,160 --> 00:30:29,520 When you know what Josh Allen J 17 is capable of because the offense could literally get 465 00:30:29,520 --> 00:30:31,120 nothing done that day. 466 00:30:31,120 --> 00:30:37,680 And then of course last year, 25, 20 in LA or LA in London, um, both start with an L, 467 00:30:37,680 --> 00:30:39,240 and the bills got an L. 468 00:30:39,240 --> 00:30:44,120 And so it was the kind of thing where after the first first two drives, the bills were 469 00:30:44,120 --> 00:30:48,440 out Matt Milano and Dequan Jones, the entire center of their defense was gutted. 470 00:30:48,440 --> 00:30:51,520 Greg were so didn't even suit up for that game because he was injured. 471 00:30:51,520 --> 00:30:55,440 And so again, it was the kind of thing where the bills off or defense couldn't seem to 472 00:30:55,440 --> 00:30:56,440 stop them. 473 00:30:56,440 --> 00:30:58,040 The bills offense just couldn't seem to connect. 474 00:30:58,040 --> 00:31:01,560 There was a number of timely drops in that game. 475 00:31:01,560 --> 00:31:06,400 That was another game that I think they were trying to force feed Stefan Diggs and it wasn't 476 00:31:06,400 --> 00:31:07,400 going well. 477 00:31:07,400 --> 00:31:08,400 Yeah. 478 00:31:08,400 --> 00:31:11,000 And that will not be an issue this game. 479 00:31:11,000 --> 00:31:14,280 But I mean, between these two teams, you've done a great job running through the recent 480 00:31:14,280 --> 00:31:15,280 history. 481 00:31:15,280 --> 00:31:19,840 Um, if you are a gambler as myself, the under feels like a good play. 482 00:31:19,840 --> 00:31:25,480 And then the, the over under here feels is at 45.5 points. 483 00:31:25,480 --> 00:31:28,720 And then the spread on this game, JJ, the bills have not covered the spread in the last 484 00:31:28,720 --> 00:31:31,440 two games they've been favored against the Jags. 485 00:31:31,440 --> 00:31:35,760 And the spread here opened at five and it's pretty much stayed consistent at five. 486 00:31:35,760 --> 00:31:39,080 It's gone up to five and a half back down to five. 487 00:31:39,080 --> 00:31:43,720 This is a relatively stable line throughout the course of the week is, is folks have started 488 00:31:43,720 --> 00:31:45,760 to put money on this game. 489 00:31:45,760 --> 00:31:50,760 So I think there's a couple of factors going into that one recent history to again, you 490 00:31:50,760 --> 00:31:52,840 look at the Jaguars on paper. 491 00:31:52,840 --> 00:31:57,760 It is hard to imagine how and why they would start 0 and 3 at this particular point. 492 00:31:57,760 --> 00:32:01,320 And I think there is still some doubt in the betting market that what we've seen from the 493 00:32:01,320 --> 00:32:03,800 bills over the first two weeks is real. 494 00:32:03,800 --> 00:32:06,400 They've played two bad defenses. 495 00:32:06,400 --> 00:32:07,800 Arizona is a bad defense. 496 00:32:07,800 --> 00:32:12,360 And I think Miami with all the turnover they had on their roster is also shaping up to 497 00:32:12,360 --> 00:32:15,600 look like a pretty bad defensive unit this season. 498 00:32:15,600 --> 00:32:19,220 So folks want to see what they do against a defensive unit that's got a few more names 499 00:32:19,220 --> 00:32:22,140 on the roster and a little bit more health to its name. 500 00:32:22,140 --> 00:32:26,680 So it'll be very interesting to see JJ, you want to start with final score? 501 00:32:26,680 --> 00:32:27,680 Sure. 502 00:32:27,680 --> 00:32:28,680 Yeah. 503 00:32:28,680 --> 00:32:34,040 I think that, you know, the Buffalo bills are going to eclipse 30 again. 504 00:32:34,040 --> 00:32:38,680 I think that their goal for this week, there's two things that I think you should really 505 00:32:38,680 --> 00:32:42,560 think about if you're a Bill's fan about this game coming up on Monday. 506 00:32:42,560 --> 00:32:46,280 One is that the bills are coming off of extra rest. 507 00:32:46,280 --> 00:32:48,040 And that is a pretty significant advantage. 508 00:32:48,040 --> 00:32:49,480 It's four days extra rest. 509 00:32:49,480 --> 00:32:53,400 They almost get a full week, you know, of more time to prepare for this game. 510 00:32:53,400 --> 00:32:58,040 So that always helps in the NFL when the margins are so thin having just a few extra days. 511 00:32:58,040 --> 00:32:59,040 So that's one. 512 00:32:59,040 --> 00:33:07,160 And then two is the will the desire of this bill's team to for those who were with the 513 00:33:07,160 --> 00:33:13,960 team the last three or four years to make a point that the Jaguars aren't special. 514 00:33:13,960 --> 00:33:19,440 And so I think that throughout the media availability, even with, you know, Sean McDermott, his 515 00:33:19,440 --> 00:33:23,880 media availability, you know, classic coach, speak, he didn't say much, said almost nothing 516 00:33:23,880 --> 00:33:25,280 at all. 517 00:33:25,280 --> 00:33:27,440 But he did kind of use like they're a good football team. 518 00:33:27,440 --> 00:33:28,440 We got to take them seriously. 519 00:33:28,440 --> 00:33:34,160 I think that his, his notes and the tones of the players is that they're all business 520 00:33:34,160 --> 00:33:39,360 this week of proving that the Jacksonville Jaguars aren't the kryptonite for the Buffalo 521 00:33:39,360 --> 00:33:45,280 bills as they've appeared to be in multiple meetings and really getting this job done. 522 00:33:45,280 --> 00:33:51,400 So I think they're going to come out with a workman like attitude and try to just do 523 00:33:51,400 --> 00:33:53,240 their job, do their job, right? 524 00:33:53,240 --> 00:33:58,640 And get this one in the books as a W. I think the bills are going to eclipse 30 for a third 525 00:33:58,640 --> 00:34:00,040 straight week. 526 00:34:00,040 --> 00:34:06,680 And I think that it's going to be a 31 17 game bills at home under the lights with a 527 00:34:06,680 --> 00:34:10,000 very sauced up bills mafia. 528 00:34:10,000 --> 00:34:14,560 You are tempting the fates, my friend. 529 00:34:14,560 --> 00:34:19,440 I am now, I'm now going to be a six, three punt and punt fest, right? 530 00:34:19,440 --> 00:34:21,320 All right. 531 00:34:21,320 --> 00:34:24,960 So JJ, I'm going to depart from you a little bit on this. 532 00:34:24,960 --> 00:34:28,080 I think Vegas has this reasonably right. 533 00:34:28,080 --> 00:34:33,600 I think it's too early in the season to make any bold declarations about either team. 534 00:34:33,600 --> 00:34:37,040 And we know that the first quarter of the season, the way preseason has played out over 535 00:34:37,040 --> 00:34:40,520 the past few years, teams are really just figuring stuff out. 536 00:34:40,520 --> 00:34:45,320 It would not surprise me if the Jags came in and stole one here because they really need 537 00:34:45,320 --> 00:34:48,680 to if they want to keep their postseason hopes alive. 538 00:34:48,680 --> 00:34:53,120 Add to the fact that it's been a weird schedule to start the season for the bills here with 539 00:34:53,120 --> 00:34:55,600 a traditional Sunday at one than the Thursday game. 540 00:34:55,600 --> 00:35:01,320 Now this long break in the bills, JJ, they've looked rusty coming off of long breaks be at 541 00:35:01,320 --> 00:35:06,480 this Thursday to Sunday, Thursday to Monday swing that they're on now or coming off of 542 00:35:06,480 --> 00:35:07,680 by weeks. 543 00:35:07,680 --> 00:35:11,720 The bills should win this game, but an L would not surprise me. 544 00:35:11,720 --> 00:35:16,240 I am going to take both the under on points and I'm going to say the bills don't cover 545 00:35:16,240 --> 00:35:18,080 again for the second straight week. 546 00:35:18,080 --> 00:35:23,520 I'm going to say bills 24 Jaguars 20. 547 00:35:23,520 --> 00:35:28,400 That would be a, you know, somewhat symbolic, the bills winning, you know, the having lost 548 00:35:28,400 --> 00:35:30,480 to the Jaguars in London, 25, 20. 549 00:35:30,480 --> 00:35:35,720 I think that it's notable that the bills have not seen these these Jaguars under, you know, 550 00:35:35,720 --> 00:35:39,200 this coach or with Trevor Lawrence in Buffalo. 551 00:35:39,200 --> 00:35:42,880 And so I think that Bill's mafia, you know, if the bills are able to pull this one out 552 00:35:42,880 --> 00:35:48,880 as both Dan and I have predicted, it's all you, my friends, you did it. 553 00:35:48,880 --> 00:35:52,840 And so I think that that's a component that we need to consider. 554 00:35:52,840 --> 00:35:53,840 Absolutely. 555 00:35:53,840 --> 00:35:55,840 JJ for prop bets. 556 00:35:55,840 --> 00:36:00,040 I've got just one prop bet this week for the game. 557 00:36:00,040 --> 00:36:04,760 And it is around Josh Allen and his rushing ability. 558 00:36:04,760 --> 00:36:06,640 So we know his left hand is hurt. 559 00:36:06,640 --> 00:36:11,760 We know that he was featured heavily in the in the QB rush game against Arizona, not so 560 00:36:11,760 --> 00:36:15,440 much against Miami because they didn't need him. 561 00:36:15,440 --> 00:36:19,840 I have had a lot of my, my bills, mafia and non bills, mafia friends tell me that they 562 00:36:19,840 --> 00:36:23,400 feel like this needs to be a Josh Allen takeover type of game. 563 00:36:23,400 --> 00:36:28,880 If in prime time, if the bills are to win, here's the thing though, man, the Jags are 564 00:36:28,880 --> 00:36:34,280 number seven and shutting down Qube unscripted QB scrambles in the league this year per NFL 565 00:36:34,280 --> 00:36:35,880 next gen stats. 566 00:36:35,880 --> 00:36:40,640 They do a pretty good job of bottling up opposing QBs again. 567 00:36:40,640 --> 00:36:45,920 And this is a consistent metric from season to season with them again to a not the most 568 00:36:45,920 --> 00:36:52,000 athletic QB got him in week one to Sean Watson was able to use his legs in the red zone against 569 00:36:52,000 --> 00:36:55,720 Jacksonville where this is a team defense that really struggles. 570 00:36:55,720 --> 00:37:00,000 But for the most part unscripted scrambles, the Jags have done a really good job shutting 571 00:37:00,000 --> 00:37:01,600 those down. 572 00:37:01,600 --> 00:37:04,840 It's going to be an interesting strength on strength matchup here, JJ. 573 00:37:04,840 --> 00:37:11,760 So I've got the over under Josh Allen rushing yards at 27.5 for this game. 574 00:37:11,760 --> 00:37:18,640 Um, so I'm going to smash the over and it's not because I think of anything, I think anything 575 00:37:18,640 --> 00:37:19,640 you said is incorrect. 576 00:37:19,640 --> 00:37:24,960 I think that absolutely their linebacker core, as I mentioned is one of their bright spots 577 00:37:24,960 --> 00:37:29,920 on their whole defense, probably the best unit overall, the best layer of the defense. 578 00:37:29,920 --> 00:37:34,800 If you go from front to back for first, third, second and then deep third. 579 00:37:34,800 --> 00:37:39,240 So that linebacker unit, especially if they're using a spy, especially if they have one of 580 00:37:39,240 --> 00:37:43,560 the if they have Andre Cisco coming down in the box to try to shorten up the run, he can 581 00:37:43,560 --> 00:37:46,160 definitely flow to find Josh Allen on a scramble. 582 00:37:46,160 --> 00:37:53,720 So if all of that is true, I think that they're they're absolutely able to minimize the damage. 583 00:37:53,720 --> 00:37:59,400 And this and we haven't mentioned it to this point, the Jaguars are the top man coverage 584 00:37:59,400 --> 00:38:04,960 team in the whole NFL after two weeks, they tend to dial up man coverage more often than 585 00:38:04,960 --> 00:38:10,320 any other team in the league, which is an aberration and especially has been a problematic 586 00:38:10,320 --> 00:38:13,560 determination for any team to do against Josh Allen. 587 00:38:13,560 --> 00:38:18,560 Since he entered the league, he tends to just completely destroy man coverage team. 588 00:38:18,560 --> 00:38:21,960 So we'll see how they go into this game to defend the bills. 589 00:38:21,960 --> 00:38:27,440 But I would agree with you that those linebackers will definitely be able to minimize the damage 590 00:38:27,440 --> 00:38:29,680 of his legs on scrambles. 591 00:38:29,680 --> 00:38:34,080 The reason I'm picking over though of that number 27 is because I think that there's 592 00:38:34,080 --> 00:38:38,120 going to be some design runs for Josh Allen in this game. 593 00:38:38,120 --> 00:38:42,680 I think there are some mismatch opportunities in numbers. 594 00:38:42,680 --> 00:38:48,160 If you're able to do like student body left student body right, you know, those big power 595 00:38:48,160 --> 00:38:52,080 QB sweeps will be effective against this team. 596 00:38:52,080 --> 00:38:57,520 Because I do not believe that their corners are very good in run support. 597 00:38:57,520 --> 00:39:02,080 And so they tend to get washed out and that makes the edges kind of soft. 598 00:39:02,080 --> 00:39:04,200 And so I can see the bills using the number advantage. 599 00:39:04,200 --> 00:39:08,640 If you're running your quarterback, and you don't have to use your running back, you know, 600 00:39:08,640 --> 00:39:09,640 that's an extra tight end. 601 00:39:09,640 --> 00:39:14,760 That's an extra jumbo alignment to get in the game and provide that kind of box count 602 00:39:14,760 --> 00:39:15,760 beater. 603 00:39:15,760 --> 00:39:17,200 So I think he'll go over. 604 00:39:17,200 --> 00:39:23,080 I don't think he will be super effective on the scrambles because of the linebackers, 605 00:39:23,080 --> 00:39:28,640 but I don't I do think he's going to get well over 27 yards. 606 00:39:28,640 --> 00:39:30,840 I'm going to go under. 607 00:39:30,840 --> 00:39:35,320 And I want to say I want to see the same game plan they had for him against Miami while 608 00:39:35,320 --> 00:39:36,880 that left hand is still heard. 609 00:39:36,880 --> 00:39:41,360 A couple of to your point scripted designed runs in the very beginning, just because we 610 00:39:41,360 --> 00:39:45,160 know Josh like it like a prize fighter, he's got to take a hit. 611 00:39:45,160 --> 00:39:48,760 He's got to he's got to get smashed in the jaw every now and then to really wake him 612 00:39:48,760 --> 00:39:50,640 up and get him going in the game. 613 00:39:50,640 --> 00:39:53,960 So I could see Brady scripting a couple of those things in early. 614 00:39:53,960 --> 00:39:58,320 And then after that, letting the traditional running back game do its thing against the 615 00:39:58,320 --> 00:40:03,160 squad and let J and let J 17 eat in the past game. 616 00:40:03,160 --> 00:40:09,920 So I'm going to say under because like, dude, how with that left hand being the way it is, 617 00:40:09,920 --> 00:40:14,600 how much do we really think the bills want to intentionally run him? 618 00:40:14,600 --> 00:40:17,960 This early in the season until that left hand heals up, right? 619 00:40:17,960 --> 00:40:23,080 They don't I feel like it's more of a injury management risk management proposition this 620 00:40:23,080 --> 00:40:26,680 week with Josh, just because it is only week three. 621 00:40:26,680 --> 00:40:31,440 There are 15 weeks and 14 games left for the bills after this. 622 00:40:31,440 --> 00:40:36,440 And until they hit their buy, this is their last really weird kind of like long extended 623 00:40:36,440 --> 00:40:37,440 week. 624 00:40:37,440 --> 00:40:42,160 So until they hit their buy in week, I think it's week 12 is when they're right. 625 00:40:42,160 --> 00:40:43,160 It is. 626 00:40:43,160 --> 00:40:44,160 Yeah. 627 00:40:44,160 --> 00:40:49,200 And they're not on a normal schedule and they're already banged up at a lot of key positions, 628 00:40:49,200 --> 00:40:51,240 most prominently with Josh and that left hand. 629 00:40:51,240 --> 00:40:54,360 So I just hope the bills don't do it. 630 00:40:54,360 --> 00:40:57,400 I understand that's why I'm taking the under that's really what it is. 631 00:40:57,400 --> 00:40:58,600 It's all vibes on this one. 632 00:40:58,600 --> 00:41:00,880 I just hope they don't run him. 633 00:41:00,880 --> 00:41:04,440 And I hope he chooses to pass the ball and not run, but we'll see. 634 00:41:04,440 --> 00:41:05,440 Yeah. 635 00:41:05,440 --> 00:41:06,440 Speed. 636 00:41:06,440 --> 00:41:11,840 I mean, that that that leads me right into my my prop for this game is passing the ball. 637 00:41:11,840 --> 00:41:15,440 It is a I would like it's a multiple choice question for you, Dan. 638 00:41:15,440 --> 00:41:19,240 So it's not necessarily something you could bet, you know, betting lines might not be 639 00:41:19,240 --> 00:41:27,640 it, but it is an interesting proposition of these options, which which Buffalo Bills 640 00:41:27,640 --> 00:41:31,800 past catcher do you believe gets the most targets in this game? 641 00:41:31,800 --> 00:41:32,800 Dalton can get. 642 00:41:32,800 --> 00:41:33,800 Is that your answer? 643 00:41:33,800 --> 00:41:35,520 No, that's one of the options. 644 00:41:35,520 --> 00:41:37,280 It should be Dalton can get. 645 00:41:37,280 --> 00:41:38,280 Okay. 646 00:41:38,280 --> 00:41:39,280 Yeah. 647 00:41:39,280 --> 00:41:40,280 It should be concave or Shakir. 648 00:41:40,280 --> 00:41:44,080 And nothing against anyone else that is that is here. 649 00:41:44,080 --> 00:41:48,440 I've seen a lot of bills, mafia, Twitter and bills, mafia threads, by the way, is becoming 650 00:41:48,440 --> 00:41:50,400 a space as well. 651 00:41:50,400 --> 00:41:53,520 But I've seen a lot of bills, mafia being like, when are we going to get the Curtis 652 00:41:53,520 --> 00:41:54,520 Samuel game? 653 00:41:54,520 --> 00:41:55,520 When are we going to? 654 00:41:55,520 --> 00:41:59,880 When are we going to see like our Debo Samuel packages for Curtis Samuel? 655 00:41:59,880 --> 00:42:03,080 And I think there's two things preventing that one. 656 00:42:03,080 --> 00:42:07,760 We probably don't realize that he is still healing from that toe injury he got in the 657 00:42:07,760 --> 00:42:08,920 preseason. 658 00:42:08,920 --> 00:42:13,760 So I think the bills are managing his reps, kind of have him on a pitch count and they 659 00:42:13,760 --> 00:42:17,420 have a plan for him once he is fully healthy later on in the season. 660 00:42:17,420 --> 00:42:20,080 So I don't think this is a Curtis Samuel game. 661 00:42:20,080 --> 00:42:24,880 The aforementioned Keon Coleman against press man coverage in college was not great. 662 00:42:24,880 --> 00:42:29,280 And we know the Jags, regardless of the Tyson Camel injury are going to play man and they're 663 00:42:29,280 --> 00:42:30,360 going to press. 664 00:42:30,360 --> 00:42:35,280 So I think this is a rough game for the rook this time around with the exception of like 665 00:42:35,280 --> 00:42:38,700 maybe one or two spectacular catches downfield. 666 00:42:38,700 --> 00:42:44,080 So that leaves you Mack Hollins, who the bills really have fallen in love with his blocking 667 00:42:44,080 --> 00:42:47,520 ability as a pass catcher. 668 00:42:47,520 --> 00:42:53,320 And I would I would put forth JJ that if Mack Hollins is your top target in this game, something 669 00:42:53,320 --> 00:42:55,000 has gone horribly wrong. 670 00:42:55,000 --> 00:43:00,240 So by process of elimination, that brings me to Dalton Kincaid, who they did a great job 671 00:43:00,240 --> 00:43:05,240 scripting early touches for him against Miami and Khalil Shakir. 672 00:43:05,240 --> 00:43:11,360 And I go Kincaid because I feel like while this linebacker unit in the safety room could 673 00:43:11,360 --> 00:43:17,120 be a uniquely tough matchup for Kincaid, I don't feel like because of the amount of man 674 00:43:17,120 --> 00:43:21,760 that they play in Jacksonville, they're going to bracket Kincaid like the dolphins and like 675 00:43:21,760 --> 00:43:26,480 the Cardinals have like Kincaid for anyone who is worried about a stat line. 676 00:43:26,480 --> 00:43:31,800 If you watch the film, he is getting wide receiver one treatment from from a lot of opposing 677 00:43:31,800 --> 00:43:33,120 defenses. 678 00:43:33,120 --> 00:43:37,280 I don't think the Jaguars do that because I don't think that's in their scheme set. 679 00:43:37,280 --> 00:43:40,080 I think he's going to get some great one on one opportunities. 680 00:43:40,080 --> 00:43:44,080 And again, he's a matchup problem even for the best linebackers and safeties in this 681 00:43:44,080 --> 00:43:45,080 league. 682 00:43:45,080 --> 00:43:47,680 So I go Kincaid by process of elimination. 683 00:43:47,680 --> 00:43:50,800 Absolutely no, that was the of course one of the options. 684 00:43:50,800 --> 00:43:55,880 The options were Kincaid, Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel. 685 00:43:55,880 --> 00:44:00,760 So I don't think that there's I don't think we're ever going to see a game like you mentioned 686 00:44:00,760 --> 00:44:05,560 where Mack Hollins is the top targeted passcatcher just because of the nature of what his job 687 00:44:05,560 --> 00:44:07,000 is on this team. 688 00:44:07,000 --> 00:44:09,800 So yeah, I think that, you know, I'm actually going to depart a little bit. 689 00:44:09,800 --> 00:44:15,200 I think it's going to be Khalil Shakir because I think that the with decent safeties, I think 690 00:44:15,200 --> 00:44:20,800 the Jaguars can with decent safeties and linebackers, their weaknesses at corner right now. 691 00:44:20,800 --> 00:44:25,960 I think that they can they can do enough to try to limit Kincaid. 692 00:44:25,960 --> 00:44:30,400 And really, if Josh Allen is reading it right, I think Khalil Shakir is a better man beater 693 00:44:30,400 --> 00:44:35,280 in this in the the offensive pass catching unit. 694 00:44:35,280 --> 00:44:38,280 I think he's going to be the most separation player. 695 00:44:38,280 --> 00:44:42,240 If we look at next gen stats after this game, he'll probably have more separation on route 696 00:44:42,240 --> 00:44:44,760 routes run than anybody else because I agree with you. 697 00:44:44,760 --> 00:44:46,560 I think Curtis Samuel is still kind of coming back. 698 00:44:46,560 --> 00:44:49,040 He's not playing fully healthy. 699 00:44:49,040 --> 00:44:53,480 And the Jacksonville Jaguars are a little bit weak and vulnerable at the edges of the 700 00:44:53,480 --> 00:44:55,080 defense. 701 00:44:55,080 --> 00:45:03,000 And then my last prop for you, sir, is Dwayne Smoot revenge game question mark Dwayne Smoot 702 00:45:03,000 --> 00:45:08,600 plus or minus half a sack minus only because he's only because he's just coming off the 703 00:45:08,600 --> 00:45:12,120 injury the injury report. 704 00:45:12,120 --> 00:45:16,560 Excited to get him back though, because of his versatility of both inside and outside. 705 00:45:16,560 --> 00:45:22,960 And I think the bills really do need that depth, particularly on the inside in this game. 706 00:45:22,960 --> 00:45:27,600 But I think he's a great he's a great chess piece on that line to move around. 707 00:45:27,600 --> 00:45:32,000 We did see Dwayne Carter's snap share against Miami go way, way up from what it did in the 708 00:45:32,000 --> 00:45:35,840 first game against Arizona, but they're still they're still working out some stuff with 709 00:45:35,840 --> 00:45:36,960 with the Rook there. 710 00:45:36,960 --> 00:45:41,720 So I think Smoot gives them a security blanket to flip inside next to Rousseau or Epinezzar 711 00:45:41,720 --> 00:45:45,080 or Miller, should they choose to. 712 00:45:45,080 --> 00:45:51,320 So I'm still going to say under just because that's a lot to ask for a guy coming off the 713 00:45:51,320 --> 00:45:53,280 injury report. 714 00:45:53,280 --> 00:45:56,440 Fair you know we like we like to focus on these interesting relationships with the 715 00:45:56,440 --> 00:45:58,680 rosters and that's one of them. 716 00:45:58,680 --> 00:46:04,680 Having played his entire career at Jacksonville prior to this right being signed by the bills. 717 00:46:04,680 --> 00:46:06,180 So what do you got over under? 718 00:46:06,180 --> 00:46:09,720 I'm going to say over because that's why you know I brought the prop to the table. 719 00:46:09,720 --> 00:46:10,720 I think it's going to happen. 720 00:46:10,720 --> 00:46:11,960 I think we're going to see him. 721 00:46:11,960 --> 00:46:17,600 I think that I do agree with you that he you know coming off the injury is a factor of 722 00:46:17,600 --> 00:46:18,600 this. 723 00:46:18,600 --> 00:46:20,640 But I think that he was probably pretty close. 724 00:46:20,640 --> 00:46:23,880 I think he actually was practicing limited last week. 725 00:46:23,880 --> 00:46:26,640 So I think he might have been pretty close to coming and playing for Miami which gives 726 00:46:26,640 --> 00:46:29,240 him an extra 11 days to heal up. 727 00:46:29,240 --> 00:46:33,800 And so I think he might be ready physically for this one because I know he'll probably 728 00:46:33,800 --> 00:46:39,120 be juiced up emotionally in the same way that Mitch Morris, Gabe Davis you know they'll 729 00:46:39,120 --> 00:46:43,760 be feeling it as well because it's always you know I think Von Miller even said it's 730 00:46:43,760 --> 00:46:46,600 always good to beat your old team. 731 00:46:46,600 --> 00:46:52,640 Yep JJ the familiar faces and new places tour continues here against Jacksonville for 732 00:46:52,640 --> 00:46:53,640 short. 733 00:46:53,640 --> 00:46:58,240 JJ as always great to pod with you. 734 00:46:58,240 --> 00:47:02,480 For all of you listening at home like share and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts 735 00:47:02,480 --> 00:47:05,680 Google Apple and Spotify and as always go bills. 736 00:47:05,680 --> 00:47:24,720 Go mills.