Welcome back to the Buffalo bread podcast. This is episode seven, the bills and cardinals
post game and the bills and dolphins pregame on a short week. It is Monday, September 9th,
and the NFL season has officially kicked off for all but two teams. We're going to play
tonight and that is the Jets and the 49ers. Dan, how are you feeling, my friend?
We're covering as I feel after most bills games. Yesterday, JJ was an absolute roller
coaster. That roller coaster ride we were on was the J A 17 MVP train that is starting
very, very early. Those calls for Josh Allen to basically put this team on his back and
will them to a playoff appearance this year. And we saw a glimpse of what that is going
to look like this season. In JJ, I know we've had the back and forth and the conversation
about the wear and tear of Josh's play style that ultimately takes on his body. But this
feels like a season where Josh is not ready to hear that. This is a season where he is
going to lead not only in the locker room with the example that he sets and his vocality
now that we've heard from a lot of these players say he's expressing himself more in that way
in the locker room, but also JJ, he is leading with the style of play that he wants to see
others on the squad emulate. That is a physical backyard ball type of style. JJ yesterday
was equal parts entertaining, magnetic and worrisome for a lot of reasons, which I think
perfectly encapsulates where the bills fan base is here heading into the Miami game on
a short week.
Yeah, that's a great point, Dan. I think that Josh Allen's durability has been one of his
best abilities. And it seems as if he's bound and determined to literally play through anything.
We've seen him spend multiple weeks of a season with his throwing shoulder not quite right,
his throwing elbow not quite right, and just still operating like he goes out there no
matter what. And so I think I agree with you. It seems as if he's, you know, it's literally
caution to the wind. I will play how I will play because it's, you know, come hell or
by water, we're taking this team all the way. I love that. And I was actually incredibly
buoyed for my, my hopes this season with a Josh Allen performance that included one
complete, you know, idiotic sugar high Josh moment with the fumble that he lost. And the
rest of the time he was poised and competitive and exactly the kind of player that, you
know, people tune in for because he literally took the game over at the end of the first
half.
A little bit about the, let's talk a little bit about the offensive performance. I think
that, you know, the thing I wrote in our kind of show notes as I was getting my thoughts
out today was Josh Allen is going to Josh Allen. But if he Josh Allen's and doesn't Josh
Allen, we're good. And I think that that's what we saw. We just saw a little bit of the
secondary Josh Allen and a lot more Josh Allen. It was quite awesome. He targeted 10
players and had nine and nine of them had at least one reception, which is a stat.
I know you like to pull often with the bill's incredible win rate when Josh Allen in his
career when he's targeted seven or more people. And so he was well above that. And again,
the result on the field was good.
It was good. It didn't just lead to a WJJ. It led to, I think, some stuff that we've
wanted to see Josh do for a while. And I think a lot of it is going to be covered up by the
fact that he played so physically yesterday, he ran the ball so much. The Red Zone offense
yesterday, JJ was in fact, Josh Allen. But that masks, I think a lot of stuff that Josh
has did in this game that we've want to see him do for a while. The stat, I was most excited
to see released this morning when I got up. And yes, I get excited for the release of
the stat packages on NFL next gen stats. JJ, it was Josh's time to throw 2.65 seconds.
He was that is that's his fastest. Yeah. Yes, exactly. Fastest of all time. Well, not a
ball in his career. Yeah. Right. So it's I mean, he's he's had a couple of games where
he's in the Dorsey era where he was like right around 2.5. But he averaged last year time
to throw JJ 2.8 seconds. That difference of those two tenths of a second means a lot when
you're faith bearing down a pass rush, when your guys are trying to hit their routes with
timing, he was trust more trustworthy of this wide receiver core and to throw into tight
windows JJ, then we have seen him in a while. He was getting the bottom of his hands quickly
when he wasn't choosing to keeping it. And JJ, he was accurate and he was accurate to
all levels of the field. He finished with a 78% completion rating of pass rating of
37.7. And JJ, this includes a couple of deep shots, a few that a couple of the connected
most notably to Keon Coleman, a couple that missed. I'm sure he'd love to have that one
to mark MVS back early in the third quarter. But for the most part, JJ, he was Josh was
dominant passing the ball at all levels of the field. I think that I'm trying to I'm
trying to tamp down a little bit because the Cardinals defense is pretty woefully terrible.
And so as I'm, you know, as we're sitting here on Monday, the bills made it look easy
to come back from a 17 to three deficit and really turn the game around. But the Cardinals
defense was suspect coming in, they remain suspect throughout. And as soon as the bills
had a chance to kind of stifle some of the momentum that the Cardinals had on offense,
playing ball control and kind of keeping the ball out of Josh Allen's hands and get some
possessions back for that offense. The whole thing kind of turned on its head. And as we
expected, he Josh Allen was able to throw on that defense and they were able to run on
that defense. And that's both exciting things. I think that one thing I really appreciated
was the running game kind of picking up where it left off last season with James Cook kind
of being a workhorse and 20 plus touches over 100 yards, if you count receiving yards in
addition to his rushing yards. And he really is keeping Ty Johnson and Ray Davis off the
field by his performance. And one thing that I think that, you know, it's funny, if you
listen to like WGR or Buffalo Radio or even some of the media members around the Buffalo
beat, they'll talk about how, you know, the bill's offense is too predictable. And first
in 10, they always run, well, if you get seven, six or seven yards per carry on those first
and 10 rushes, it's really not a problem to run every first and 10. If you're consistently
able to produce and stay ahead of the sticks. And on top of that, if you do that and you
become, you know, quote unquote, super predictable, then when you do a play action, seam ball
to Dalton concave down the middle of the field, it's going to be way more effective. It's
going to suck up way more attention than if you throw that pass 50% of the time on first
down. Yeah, absolutely. And you know, the defense you mentioned how putrid the Arizona
defenses and we said it on the pregame, this has the potential to be one of the worst defenses
in the league this year, they just don't have the personnel to do what Gannon wants to do.
But it was really interesting how much they're trying to cover up for themselves in coverage
against an unknown, as far as efficacy, one wide receiver room. I mean, listen, the book
on Josh is that you don't blitz Josh, but we saw timely blitzing last year really throw
him off for long stretches at a time, though the cumulative stats at the end of the year
and the aggregate stats looked good for Josh against the Blitz. But JJ, the Cardinals didn't
come after him hardly at all. They only blitz chose to bring an extra pass rush around six
of his dropbacks. A lot of that is because of the threat that Josh is to run. They were
worried he was going to bust the pocket on those. But JJ Josh again, just did such a good
job of taking what the defense was giving him 14 of 17, when he wasn't blitzed. And when
the when the Cardinals were playing in that cover two shell that we see so many teams
deploy against these bills, he was able to pick it apart. And then I think judiciously
and maturely take his shots downfield. And those are two things that I think carry over
against any defense because they are factors that are within Josh's control in his game
that we haven't seen him fully develop. But the patients standing back in the pocket,
making quick decisions, taking his shots when he knew he had a high success, a chance of
success and not just throwing it because well, Gabe Davis is down there somewhere.
Yeah, I think the difference between the Cardinals defense and the Miami defense is that the
Miami defense does have I mean, even with the departure of Wilkins, they've got players
on that front. And especially in the linebacker core, who are above average NFL starter NFL
caliber starters. And I think that for the Cardinals, they have probably average to replacement
level front seven players, if you count their defensive line and then their linebackers,
especially with the injuries they've suffered early in the season. Whereas the Dolphins,
even without Bradley Chubb, or I'm sorry, Nick, yeah, Bradley Chubb, and even with
Jalen Phillips, probably not 100% coming off of his Achilles, they still have a relatively
complete defensive front. And so the bills are going to have a harder time running on
the dolphins. And in the back end, the dolphins bring back some of their talented defensive
backs. And they have the, oh, geez, Jalen Ramsey. Who's the is it Ramsey? Yeah, the
corner Ramsey, why does that not Davon Holland and the second dog, but like, I love it. I
don't know why Jalen Ramsey's name sounded funny to me. So they've got the defensive
backfield they have is solid, but they didn't they haven't really improved it that much
from last year. And they can be vulnerable on the outside the numbers as we saw in the
bills first game, you know, against the dolphins coming off of that 70 point win over the Broncos
when everyone expected it to be this massive shootout. And then the dolphins didn't do
just do so hot in the bills basically did whatever they wanted that day. It's going
to be interesting because it's a better defense. I think it's a solid defense, but it's their
third defensive coordinator in three years. There's a lot of question marks on to what
they can present the jaguars on offense were kind of a mess. And gate and the dolphins
gave up a lot of rushing yards to Travis ETN, even though they're able to kind of tighten
down in the red zone on a lot of those drives. So I'm really curious to see with a better
against a better red zone offense in the bills, if the dolphins defense is legit.
Yeah. And I'm curious to see on the flip side of that, as we wrap up the Cardinals post
game here, what the bills defense is going to look like against an offense that I would
say in Miami is far more layered and professionalized at this at this point in its development
than the Cardinals was. I mean, JJ, the Cardinals did exactly what we said they were going to
do in the pregame. They ran the ball relentlessly. Kyler Murray, when he broke contain and zoomed
out of the pocket, was an absolute problem for us. And we knew he was going to be. But
there's some other things that we knew about Kyler Murray, too, that that came to fruition
as well. His average yards per attempt in this game, 5.2 yards. And he was one of five on
passes beyond the sticks, 10 yards or above. We called him a check down Charlie in the
pregame. He proved it to be so, especially in those windy conditions and some of the
uncertainty in his in his wide receiver core. I mean, dude, Marvin Harrison was targeted
what four times in that game, Marvin Harrison, Jr. Wild. And he was running free a lot of
times over over our safety. Yeah. I blame Kyler Murray for a lot of that. I think that
a better I blame his height. Yeah. If if Josh Allen, if the quarterbacks were swapped in
that game, kind of Marvin Harrison would have had like 100 plus yards on six or seven catches,
you know, and probably a title year to. Yeah, absolutely. I mean, he did have that one drop.
But listen, man, Jamar Chase dropped his first pass catch at his career to and we've seen
how he's turned out pretty good, though he is still waiting for that contract from Cincinnati.
But but this this Cardinals offense was as advertised in the bills after some nice second
half adjustments, like stop. They stopped dropping Greg Rousseau into coverage, which
they did on my rewatch of the game four times in the first half, your best pass rusher,
your best run defender, dropping them into coverage. I think Babbage was getting a little
bit too cute with some of this what he was trying to scheme up against Murray. And they
just got back to basics in the second half and some aggressive play calling to they were
able to get organic pressure, but they weren't afraid to blitz drop the blitz when they needed
to in certain situations against Murray. And contrary to how he has played in his career
against the Blitz, Murray really did struggle against it. So nice adjustments in the second
half by the defense. But JJ, we can't move on to this Miami Dolphins preview without
talking about the loss, albeit for an unknown length of time at this point of Taryn Johnson.
As we speak today on this podcast, he has already been ruled out of the game against
Miami. He left after about nine plays against Arizona. And we saw the the chaotic disorganization
of this defense, as everyone was trying to figure out how they were going to pick up
the pieces in the first half after Johnson was ruled out. Again, did a great job in the
second half. But now we roll into Miami with I would say questionable safety play against
a squad that is going to exploit the deep deep areas of the field way better than Kyler
Murray and the Cardinals did. And also with our signature nickel back, not being able
to not being able to go on Thursday, enter the Cam Lewis experience. So JJ, what are
some of the things you saw from this bill's defense against the Cardinals? And how do
we think it is going to translate against a much tougher offense in Miami?
Yeah, I mean, everybody should be worried about, you know, Jalen Waddle and Tyreek
Hill, Dave Devon, HN and Raheem Moster against this bill's defense, because I think that
the the defense got younger. It didn't necessarily get markedly quicker. I think that Tural Bernard
is athletic. I think during Williams is athletic. But Cam Lewis is not a burner. Ingram is
not a burner. So some of the replacement players that they put in to mask Taron Johnson's loss
are not fast enough to keep up in one on one coverage with either of the two, you know,
top outside players and definitely not anybody that's coming out of the backfield. And so
I think those are challenges. That's definitely Bobby Babbage has his work cut out for him
this week. It's a known opponent. So you have some of that work is already done. They haven't
changed coordinators on offense. They have the same quarterback, they have the same key
skill players. So in a lot of ways, you're just refreshing a game plan. And then, you
know, adding twists and wrinkles so that it's not it doesn't look like a previous use previously
used game plan because the other opponent will figure that out pretty quickly and kill
you. But I think that, you know, if you look back to the Cardinals game with the defense,
it was, you know, Taron Johnson went out at like, like you'd mentioned nine plays in the
Cardinals scored two touchdowns very shortly after he went down. But then the bill's adjustments
resulted in the Cardinals not scoring another offensive touchdown the rest of the game,
you know, for like two and a half quarters, they were pretty much shut down on offense
or at least stuffed in the red zone if they got down there. And that I think showed the
adjustment they made. And I think that the adjustment was Cam Lewis, who basically proved
that he is not only the backup to the safety or possible starting safety, he is kind of
a do everything DB he is, you know, the Swiss Army knife back there, because he was practicing
in the safety room while they were, you know, in the preseason with all those injuries.
But then the moment Taron Johnson goes down, he steps up to that nickel start starting
position. And then they start doing some things where they were able to rotate, you know,
three linebackers in on early downs. And then, you know, use Doran Williams, use Troll Bernard,
use a third linebacker and then move, you know, move to three safeties on long and late downs.
And the person who came in for that third safety position was actually Jomarcus Ingram,
who's mostly filled in at outside corner in his career. So, you know, many players playing
sort of out of their predominant position, but they've really made it work. I saw, I
think Cam Lewis was the second best player on the field in this game. And it wasn't close.
He was flying all over the ball. It took him probably a quarter to get his feet under him.
But after that, he was the most impactful defender besides Greg Russo.
Yeah. And I don't want to close the book on this bill's defensive effort is problematic
as it was without talking about Russo. I think it's hard to argue this point now with Johnson
being out and Milano being out and all due respect to Troll Bernard, but without the
elder statesman Jordan Poir and Micah Hyde on the squad and with the injuries the defensive
has suffered. This is Greg Russo's defense, even I think above and beyond over at Oliver
and our specter, El Bernard being named captain, but this is Russo's defense. That defensive
line JJ right now is the healthiest and arguably strongest unit on this defensive squad. And
they're going to need to set the tone game in and game out as the secondary figures out
who is going to play where what everyone's role is going to be, what their scheme fit
is going to be over the next few weeks. I'm a huge nerd for for line play. I haven't seen
him employ the kind of speed to power or bull rush or single arm stab moves that he used
consistently in this game, but once or twice a season and he and I saw them all game long.
And so I also rewatched and it was kind of amazing in the way that he the the left tackle
for the Cardinals who's one of their best best and brightest young offensive linemen
stand 6 6 310 pounds and Paris Campbell Jr. I believe. And on the one sack that Russo had
coming off of the right defensive edge, he one arm stab that guy and pushed him back like
four feet, like just completely erased his anchor, which you don't usually see with a
starting caliber left tackle. And then just was already there. It was impossible to do
anything at that point in the rep for the sack. The gate, the play was over. It was I was
I was astounded at the kinds of things he was doing. And it reminded me of some of the pre
season comments from the other defensive linemen that group finally understands how big and
powerful he is. And he's not he's not afraid to use it without hesitation. And so that
was outstanding. I mentioned Cam Lewis, I mentioned Marcus anger really stepping up.
I do have, you know, a couple of down notes from this game against the Cardinals. I think
that, you know, Dorian Williams really struggled being a QB spy against Kyler Murray, they
assigned him that position, especially on early downs. And he often was late to react
and then took took a bad angle. And so a lot of the scrambles were kind of fall at his
feet that were successful. And then the other down note is Taylor rap is the person who
hurt Taryn Johnson. It wasn't Taryn Johnson tackling somebody. It was Taylor rap coming
in after Taryn Johnson had already started to make a tackle on this on the slot receiver
and whacking his forearm with his helmet. And this is something we've talked about in
the pod. I know a lot of people have noticed it. Taylor rap is responsible for another
play where he injures a teammate with this this game yesterday. And he has four such
plays in his two in his in one fully season and one game on the bills, which is really
a problem. Like I don't know what you do to address that because of course, it's his
aggressive play style that results in it. But he also almost clean clean Christian Benford's
clock on a past to McBride on the Cardinals second touchdown drive, like he came flying
in and didn't didn't need need that aggression on that play, because Christian Benford was
already there and secure on the tackle. And it was it was worrying like he his his army
his aiming and target points is really a problem.
When he was out of position on more than a couple of plays to I mean, listen, Taylor
rep has never been known as a technician. He is more of a blunt force instrument and a
lot of the defenses that he's played on. I mean, you could argue that he is playing
because of the where the safety room is at for Buffalo. He's also playing somewhat out
of position, particularly for what the scheme is asking him to do. And I echo your points
on Dorian Williams. I mean, listen, man, Kyler Murray was targeting Williams on all of those
dinks and dunks across the middle of the field. And you've got to believe that whenever he
is on the field and non obvious passing downs against Miami to is going to do the same thing.
The middle of the field will be wide open, as long as Williams is on the field and and
the bills went back to that time look like we talked about, try to cover up for that
and obvious passing downs. But with the with how depleted the safety room is and this DB
room is getting without Taryn Johnson, they are they are very quickly trying to find answers
that they may not currently have on the roster for some of these scheme issues that they need
to address to JJ. Listen, one other player I want to I want to end this on a positive
note because this is Victory Monday. One other player I want to mention is Keon Coleman.
He was not a separation guy averaged on on on his targets and average separation of 2.4
yards of separation. The league average week week one was 2.6 yards. And by the end of
last season 2023, that league average JJ was 3.3 yards. Half yard means something in this
league. That's the difference between a DB reaching into your grasp and knocking the ball
away versus not. But Keon dominant at the point of catch man dominant at the point of
catch as advertised. And I love that after that long ball that he caught from Allen in
the second half, they went right to him in the red zone to try to get him a tutty. I
thought it was great reward the kid for for a job well done. But Keon I'm excited to see
his development man. I think it's going to be really good and be over and what it's going
to mean for this wide receiver room. I think it's obvious that that Brady is still figuring
some stuff out. Khalil Shakir played almost almost less than half of the snaps yesterday
against Arizona. It was right around like 53%. He is a playmaker and the only guy that
seems to be able to get yards after the catch other than can Cade, who also had some questionable
usage in the first half that they thankfully corrected in the second half. Brady is figuring
some stuff out this past catcher room. I would like to see them not go crazy with it, especially
when they're out there in 12 personnel. But more importantly, when they're in 11 personnel,
which was when they started to get some things going yesterday. You've got to have concave
is your is your tight end one. And then cool Shakir has to get more snapshot than Mack
Collins love Mack Hollins love his leadership. Khalil Shakir is your playmaker in that wide
receiver room pending the development of Keon Coleman, who had a great week one to Fermi.
He had a great week one. I am. It was funny because the we were watching with friends
and they when they threw straight back at him in the red zone after his big catch, the
people the people the George and Kevin were watching with were like, why do they go right
back? You know, like I was like, well, because he didn't get called for a very obvious push
off on the previous play. So they figure if the refs aren't going to call it, they'll
just keep feeding him because he's big and strong enough to do that all day. It doesn't
matter if somebody's covering him, if he can just push them away and then catch the ball.
And so yeah, I'm curious to see how that develops in his game too, because he's going to need
to find some tools and some savvy route techniques to get separation at this level. Or he's just
going to have to always be a high point specialist, which is possible. I mean, there's people
who've made good money in the league doing just that. Yeah, absolutely. I would I would
like to see him develop into what Mike Evans has become. I think that is the potential
ceiling for Coleman. And listen, we don't want to over a week one. We don't want to
read too much into it. It's essentially an extension of the preseason for a lot of teams.
And I think based on some of the uncertainty we saw with personnel packages on offense
yesterday in the first half versus the second half, I think you could say the same thing
for the bills is they're figuring stuff out. But JJ, they ultimately figured out a win.
They now head into a pivotal matchup early on in the season against a divisional opponent
in the Miami Dolphins, an opponent that they've had a lot of success under under Sean McDermott
and with Josh Allen. Everybody, everybody has seen that Josh Allen as your daddy means
when it comes to the Miami Dolphins. But Josh is only going to be on the field for half
of this game. The other half of the game, the defense is going to be on the field against
a very potent Miami attack. So JJ, where do you want to start with this game preview?
Do you want to start with the Dolphins? Oh, against the bills D or vice versa and flip
it?
Um, let's keep going with the kind of we ended with the bills defense in its efforts against
the Cardinals. So yeah, let's end there or let's start there with the Dolphins preview.
I think that, you know, for me, it's a question of what can Rassoul Douglas and Christian
Benford do to limit Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle? That's that's step one, because I
think that anyone who's watched the bills or listened to our podcast knows the whole
key to stopping this Miami, this wildly effective Miami passing attack is just making sure that
that the first read that to what wants to go to is not available the moment he wants
to go to it, which is exactly two and a half seconds or less off the snap. And so if they
can muddy that, that kind of short slant area of the field long enough to let the pass rush
get some pressure or to at least let you know, the play develop a little bit where to it
has to look to some other reads, they're going to do a nice job. The thing I worry about
most that you've already pointed out though, when we're talking about the previous game
is Dorian Williams, his area of responsibility and zone coverage is that slant zone area
right behind the line of scrimmage. Yeah, JJ, and it's not just the wide receivers,
you've got to worry about running that slant. Devon H N who did not have a great day running
the ball yesterday, did show a little bit of juice in the past catching game and the
dolphins have been clear in the preseason, they want to use their running backs more
out of the backfield catching passes to add some wrinkles and some layers to this very
potent Miami offensive attack. And I worry about Williams being susceptible to a play
action leak where H N just leaks into the middle of the field. He's got three, four
yards of separation around him and that dude plants and goes and he is all speed. He could
take easily take a far five yard dump off and turn it into a four yard game. I don't
and JJ, I don't have any good solutions for the bills. Because again, the well they would
normally go to would be pulling in a third safety but given the health of that safety
room right now to cover up in some of those obvious passing situations, you've got to
trust that that Williams is going to at some point get it. Now for those bills fans that
were hoping he was going to have a Terrell Bernard like emergence this season. We all
need to remember that Bernard really didn't show his chops and have his coming out party
till week four last year against the Miami Dolphins. So if anything remains consistent
in the historic development of these Buffalo Bills linebackers, maybe Williams on a short
week where he can flush the Sunday game against the Cardinals very quickly. Maybe he comes
out rejuvenated and a new guy and is focused on the game plan and really at addressing
the obvious weaknesses of this game. But beyond that, I don't know that the bills have great
personnel answers for the scheme that they're going to need to run in order to stop some
of this quick Miami Dolphins passing game. Now JJ, an area where I think they might have
some success is stopping the Miami Dolphins run game. Williams is an excellent run defender
add to that one of the best edge defenders against the run and Greg Rousseau. And the
susceptibility that they had to the type of run scheme that the Cardinals were running
is going to be a little bit different, I think, against these Miami Dolphins. This Miami Dolphins
offensive line JJ went through a ton of turnover last season. And this is a fairly complex
motion based run scheme that Miami is is putting out there game in and game out. I think two
things are true about this Miami Dolphins offensive line. They're not very talented and they're
definitely a downgrade from last season's ultimately putrid offensive line. That's
saying something. But I think two is I think they're still trying to get their hooks into
what this scheme is all about. And you saw it yesterday, the Jacksonville Jaguars, you
know, it's surprising they're a top 10 defense in 2023 by a lot of metrics. But it's a team
that you could run on. They were about hovered right around the league average as far as
efficiency metrics went, dude, they shut down this Miami run game yesterday, they only allowed
69 total yards on 23 rush attempts to this Miami Dolphins running back room. When you
take into account all that speed that they have, the Jaguars figured out something in
a hole in this Miami Dolphins offensive line that they could exploit. And I believe if
it comes to winning the battle upfront in the run game, I think we could see the bills
have a little bit more success in stopping the run against Miami than they did against
Arizona. Yeah, I think you're right. Just looking at the offensive line that they did
not they did not measurably improve their offensive line. In fact, losing Robert Hunt
to free agency and passing on resigning their their center. I think those two pieces, they
took a step back and both those two positions. And then Liam, Liam Weikenberg is a little
bit banged up. So he may not start as one of them. He's the right guard currently. Toronto
Armstead, who we all know hasn't had a is has been an excellent talent that hasn't had
a healthy season in the past four years. Is a question I think that I mean, he's healthy
right now, but we'll see. So yeah, I think that it's it's a possibility that bills have
a chance to shut down the run. I think especially in the second half against the Cardinals,
the bills really showed a much better understanding of the run fits and you know how to flow to
the ball. In particular, I think that that was largely, you know, due to the expert,
you know, expertise of Cam Lewis, because he I think early after Toronto Johnson went
out, Cam Lewis was was struggling a little bit. Once it clicked for him, the the run
game was no long, you know, James Conner was no longer going anywhere. And so I think
there's possibilities that especially if they roll out the same lineup and assignments
this week against the the dolphins that he'll start on a much hotter note in terms of finding
his landmarks and making sure that he's turning things inside where he's supposed to and shooting
gaps where he's supposed to, which was really what I saw in the second half that made me
notice him a lot more.
Yeah, absolutely, man. I mean, this is an opponent. Listen, we know we've done a ton
of dolphins pre games on this podcast over the last few years. There's not much left
to say that we haven't already said this is a Miami Dolphins offense that's going to run
motion there in motion and 90% of their snaps yesterday, which is the fourth highest motion
rate that they have run under Mike McDaniel. They want to use Devon HN in the past game
as much as the run game. Dude had 76 yards receiving and caught all seven targets that
they sent his way yesterday. That that that is a wrinkle that scares me more, I would
argue than Tyree kill because at this point, you know, Tyree can score from 80 yards from
anywhere on the field, right? Like it's just one of those things he's going to get one.
And as a Bill's fan, I've learned to accept that he's just going to get one, right? But
HN, especially what we saw from this Bill's defense yesterday and their inability to get
off the field on third down, that scares me heading into Thursday more than anything else.
And listen, you got to close down those anticipatory windows with two up. He the magic number,
I think the number that dominates probably every single defensive coordinators game planning
when they play Miami is 2.5 seconds. Can you get to it a hang on to the ball for longer
than 2.5 seconds last season, his time to throw 2.36 seconds, a full a full two tenths
of a second better than the next person. So they're trying to cover up for this offensive
line, but speed and quick reads are built into this. Can you get him to hang on to the
ball and close down some of those initial windows? And that to me, JJ is where HN becomes
a really interesting weapon for them. And it's a I've criticized Mike McDaniel for not
making a ton of adjustments with this offense over the past couple of seasons. Like when
you see it get shut down, he just rolls the same thing out there. HN is a pass catcher,
really does change the calculus you need to do when you come and play this Miami, Miami
Dolphins team now. So credit to the way they're scheming up HN as a complete running back
weapon here. That's the piece I'm going to keep an eye on on Thursday the most.
And that I think is valid. And I think HN such is such a weapon. I will say I do like
the bills. I like the bills defensive backs for shutting down wide risky right or I'm
sorry, running back wide, you know, screens and kind of toss outs and those sorts of things
because they do have a good sense since they play so much zone, they usually have their
eyes in the backfield and I and we saw James Connor and a couple other targets, you know,
and like wide receiver tunnel screen situations against the Cardinals. We saw the bills able
to click and close really well, specifically, Jomarcus Angerum and Gam Lewis on a couple
of plays. Even Taylor Rap had one good rep where he like read it, got it, got there and
held them to a two or three yard gain. And so I think that that's an opportunity for
the bills that I don't know, you know, I haven't watched enough of the Jacksonville Jaguars
to have a sense of how good they are at that. I think it's a thing that the bills are very
good at. The thing the bills are not very good at is traditional screens with linemen
on the move. And, you know, the defensive line pushing too far into the backfield and
getting too hungry with the rush. That I think is a real chance. I mean, remember that all
the Chan Galey offenses against the bills and the constant screen game. It was Oh, yeah,
it was a Achilles heel and it remains to be so even in this iteration with the coaches
and players we have now. The traditional screen game is a real problem. I but I don't see
those kind of on an island screens or quick throwouts as much of a risk as they would
be for a lot of other NFL teams who play more man who are caught with their backs to that
play. Yeah, yeah, no, I agree. It's it's going to be interesting to see. And then again,
I'm not expecting three sacks every game from Greg Rousseau. But our we had a von Miller
citing yesterday as well. So are they going to be able to not only close down those throwing
lanes for two? But are they actually going to be able to get home? The Jaguars did yesterday.
They sacked two with three times, despite only recording a pressure rate of about 17%.
Dude, these numbers are ridiculous. Whenever I look at Miami stat line, it's unbelievable
how quick they get the ball out. But like it's becoming a it's becoming an offense of
binaries for me. They're either getting the ball out super quick or to a can't find a
way to throw and he's taking a sack or he's getting pressures wild to me. This offense
is crazy. Oh my God, I can't wait to watch film. I can't wait to watch the film of the
Jags game. It's just it's nuts. But but again, the defensive line is going to be important
in setting the tone not just against the run, but also getting home on to getting him on
the ground. I think means more than just putting pressure on him because of how quickly he
gets out the ball. So so yeah, we'll see anything else is we as we wrap up here on
this side of the ball, are you ready to flip it over to the the bill's offense? No, I think
that that's that's all we have to say about that. Let's let's talk Josh Allen and his
army against this Dolphins defense. Where do you want to start? Which unit?
I think it's got to start. I think we got to start with the bills and in particular,
I want to start with the past catchers because it's going to matter. This game JJ less than
the bills, it feels like you're just going to have to win a bunch of shootouts this season
until they can figure out some things on defense. My larger fears that they don't figure out
anything on defense in this year is going to look a lot like what we saw on Sunday,
which was 34 28. So if they're going to win, they're going to absolutely need to run the
ball, control the clock, keep to a and this very potent offense off the field, which they
have had a lot of success doing. And this is not a good Miami Dolphins defensive line.
They finished middle middle of the pack and most efficiency stats last year and we're
very susceptible to the run. And they have downgraded. Thank God Christian Wilkins has
moved on have fun in Las Vegas, my friend, we do not miss you. Andrew Van Ginkel has
moved on. This is a patchwork unit of a lot of low cost veterans that have some great
resumes, but you could argue are kind of over the over maybe their their peak playing days.
The bills need to come out, control time of possession. And then I want to see what these
past catchers can do when they are called upon again, didn't love the snap share some
of the personnel group is in the first half. I want to see more concaited in this game
man. The dolphins have traditionally struggled and been in the lower tier of teams when defending
opposing teams tight ends. We've got two really good ones. I want to see Dalton can
Kate eat this game. I'm losing patience with how they're scheming him up, how they're
putting him him out there giving him basically one half of real meaningful snaps yesterday.
Yesterday, I want to see Kate out there for 70% of the snaps all due respect to Dawson
Knox. He should be tight end one in the 11 personnel. And when they're in 12, unless
Shakira is on the field, he should be their number one go to option.
Yeah, I would agree with that. I think that it's but it does track for me with all the
pre all the preseason conversations that the bills, offensive players had about, you know,
everybody's punching a bus ticket, everybody eats, you know, Jeff's there. Josh Allen's
the the chef and they're all you know, just just at the restaurant and it's it's it tracks
with all of that. But I agree with you. I think don't concede it's it seems like such
a waste to not use somebody so talented at finding soft spots in the zone. Someone who's
reportedly had a an even better rapport with Josh Allen spending so much time with him
in the offseason. And so but here's here's my worry, Dan, to your to your wishes and
hopes. It may be the thing that we've talked about or expected in all of our offseason
conversations that like this this week against the Cardinals wasn't a concaid game. Maybe
this week against the Dolphins is a concaid game. And then maybe the following week he
has two targets, you know, two receptions for 46 yards, while somebody else has, you know,
100, 100 yards like a Shakira game or a Curtis Samuel game. So they may rotate it in that
way because we know how, you know, diligent Joe Brady is at identifying the target, you
know, the weak point in the defense and attacking it incessantly until they find a way to stop
something.
Yeah, I mean, man, we talked about it in that Cardinals pregame, though. I mean, the Cardinals
came in ranked 29th in DV away when stopping opposing teams tight ends in the past game.
That's bad. Like if if the Cardinals are not adult and concaid game, like what is adult
and concaid game look like to Brady, you know what I mean? But I do think to our point earlier,
they are still trying to figure it out in real game speed, you know what I mean? So like
what this offense was yesterday is not what is what it's going to look like at the end
of the season.
Because Shakira and concaid and Cook are the three best playmakers on that team. And this
is a very good, very smart bills coaching staff. They're eventually going to figure
out ways, I think, to game plan those guys in while also keeping opposing defenses off
balance with the everybody eats mantra that they've adopted in that past catching room.
I think they're going to have it both ways. And you know, we've got to remember to the
learning curve for tight ends in this league is very, very steep. Kyle Pitts scored a touchdown
yesterday, fantasy managers rejoice, but we've waited years, years for that moment with Kyle
Pitts. I don't think it's going to be the same with concaid. But I do think a little
bit of patience to your point is warranted because a learning curve for young tight ends
in this league is so, so steep. And listen, everyone is going to talk about the the key
on Coleman versus Xavier worthy debate. But there is another wide receiver debate that
I believe we could we could start with regard to the chiefs and the bills and that is Sky
Moore versus Khalil Shakir, because those two, I think in the draft year, they both came
out in the same year, were the most frequently bundled together. Who would you rather have
Sky Moore or Khalil Shakir, more ended up going way, way earlier on the draft than Shakir
did. And Shakir took this like really mysterious drop throughout the process. He was predicted
very early on to go as high as the late second round, but ultimately was a steal for the
bills where they got him. Listen, the jury is still out on Coleman versus worthy. But
I think definitively the bills got the better end of the Shakir versus Sky Moore debate.
I would agree with that. And I think that there's there's even more to see. I mean,
he surfed on on a defensive lineman's body into the end zone, which is like, it's crazy
pure effort. It was amazing. Yeah, I don't know. I don't like that's the kind of thing
it's like, you know, just the thought of the level of athleticism these guys have, and
then the ability and wherewithal to like, think your way through moving yourself toward
the goal line in that particular situation and knowing that you haven't yet touched the
ground and that you can just kind of jam your feet in at the heel and shove yourself toward
the goal line and slide over that dude was, it was just impressive. I want to, you know,
I always want to give a shout out to the to the big guys. Deon Dawkins on that play that
Shakir scored by sliding over the defender into the goal line. Totally pancake somebody,
which I really appreciate it too. He just walked up and pushed a linebacker onto his
back with his hands. Big man, Tim.
Unbelievable. Absolutely unbelievable. Well, and that's something actually I want to this
is something I want to this is a good segue. This is something I want to see against the
dolphins because I think the bill's offensive line is superior to the dolphins defensive
line. This should be that should be a matchup that the bills can win. I want to see them
win it. And I don't want to see weird nonsense, you know, Pat, you know, concentration penalty
laps lapses of concentration penalties like they had against the Cardinals with Spencer
Brown, Deon Dawkins, Osiris Torrance, false starts, random, you know, like face masks
while on offense, all that stuff, they need to get that cleaned up.
Yeah, absolutely. It was a sloppy game from the offensive line. Stuff that I feel like
is more bills two years ago than it was last season when they had, again, the best offensive
line play I've seen them have in the McDermott era. If they can clean that up and they can
stop putting themselves in these these atrocious third down through down positions. JJ, at
one point in the game yesterday, they were three for eight in the early in the early
minutes of the fourth quarter, three for eight on third down conversions with average yards
to go of 10.7 yards. Terrible. I mean, and it's terrible. Nothing to do with Josh taking
sacks only got sacked twice in that game. It was had everything to do with the silly
offensive line penalties that this team was drawing. Got to clean that up. And again,
I agree with you, they should dominate against this Miami Dolphins defensive line and that
linebacker unit. JJ, before we go to prediction, sure to go wrong, which much to our surprise,
we were not too wrong this week on the Cardinals game. It would be remiss if we didn't mention
that we are about to go through game one of what is going to be many, many games this
season where the bills are facing former former familiar faces in new places. Jordan Poyer,
we are going to be going up against Jordan Poyer on Thursday, long time bill, long time
captain of this team. We have said it ad nauseam, owe him everything for helping McDermott set
the culture he wanted to with the squad and with this defense. I am going to be rooting
for Jordan Poyer 15 games out of the year this season. JJ, this will not be one of them.
What are your feelings and one of your thoughts on the bills going up against a beloved former
bill? I think that Jordan Poyer, given the way he plays the game with the intensity and
how savvy he is, this isn't the same as going against other former players where you could
use the familiarity against them. I don't think that that's on the cards. I think that
they have to be very careful throwing into Jordan Poyer's coverage because he's going
to have a better sense of how that ball comes off Josh Allen's hand, what it looks like,
trying to jump where to be than anybody else probably because he saw it in practice every
day. He knows the inside and outside of the game plans that the bills like to use. He
was just with the team for many years, but then just recently with them last year on
long run. I expect him to come out with extra juice as well because it's always just more
fun to compete against these guys that you know. Again, I wish him the best every other
game in this game. I want him to look old and slow and take bad angles and maybe get
trucked by Josh Allen in the open field. Just saying.
That's a perfect segue into prediction. Sure to go wrong, JJ, because I've got Poyer and
one of our props for this week. All right, so let's hit it. Let's do a quick recap here.
JJ, if you would please run us through our predictions for the Cardinals. How close did
we come to being actually right?
This is like uncharted territory for us to get predictions this close. So the final
score really good. We were really good. The final score of the actual game was 34-28.
Of course, Bill's win by six points. They cover the spread. They know they matched the
spread. No, they missed a point.
No, it was six and a half. Okay, six and a half. They missed the spread. They don't
miss a spread, but they hit the over on total points, which was set at 47. I had guessed
that the Bills would win 34-24. So I had the Bill score right and you had guessed the Bills
would win 31-28. So you had the Cardinals score right.
Unreal. Uncanny. Yeah.
And then we had two Josh Allen props. Woody Throw pick. We both said he would not.
Yes.
Even though he did have that one fumble, but no picks. Breaks the streak of the past couple
of opening weeks. And then we both had the under for Josh throwing 300 yards in the opening
week. Hasn't done it for a really, really long time. We both took the under because
we didn't feel like hopefully the Bills would need it. And if they did need it, something
had gone horribly wrong. Exactly.
And he went, stuff still went horribly wrong, but Josh didn't need to throw the ball that
much. So yeah. Yeah.
Yeah. Overall, good stuff.
We were good. It's almost like we know our stuff. I don't know.
It's crazy. It's like we're getting good at this after all this time. All right. So now
that we have thrown flowers at our feet.
Properly fluffed ourselves up for what is inevitably a terrible take in this sense.
This is a short week. Yeah. And it's going to be so bad. All right. Let's do it. Final
score predictions, JJ. What do you got?
I think it's another high scoring affair because I think the Bills defense is still figuring
things out and missing. Taran Johnson is going to be a problem. They're also missing. Dwayne
Smoot. So we're going to see Casey Tull, who's less of an athlete on the outside. I think
that the Bills, I do think the Bills win, but I think it's 35 31 Bills.
Damn. That's a really high score you got going on. As of right now, I'm trying to pull up
the spread for this game. You know, JJ Thursday games are always weird, right? Because it's
a short week, not a lot of not a lot of playing time. Injuries haven't fully healed. You don't
get full practice time in. So here's where we're at over under for this game, 50 total
points. And then the dolphins are two and a half point favorites, which is basically
standard home field advantage these days in the betting world. So if this was a neutral
field, this game would be a coin flip. I'm all right. I'm with you. I think the Bills
win, but I think it's a lower scoring affair than a lot of people will believe it to be
because I just don't know that this dolphins running game is right. I don't know this offensive
line is figure stuff out. And we all lose sight of the fact of how much this team relies
on the run and a Shanahan style offense. We lose sight of that fact because of all the
deep balls they throw. I'm going to say Bills 24, dolphins 21. And I'm going to take the
under in this game because Thursday night games are notorious for hitting the under
because of the short turnaround in the short week. So that's where I am at, sir.
All right.
Did you document that?
I did not, but I will make sure to listen to our podcast like everyone else should and
get it into our running show notes.
Excellent. All right. Now here's what I got for you. Jordan Poyer over under half a sack
on Josh Allen. Yes.
Oh, I could see. Oh, I could see any defensive coordinator in the world doing a safety blitz.
Yep. And Anthony, Anthony Weaver plays a little bit more man comes from that Mike McDonald
tree. I could see it. Right. Right. It's a good one. It's a juicy one.
It is a really good one. So you said plus, plus minus half of a sack.
Yep. Okay.
Okay. Half a sack. So will he get a sack or won't he on Josh?
I'm going to take the under. And I think that Josh Allen will never let him live it down
because I actually think he's going to come on a blitz. I think Josh Allen's going to
shake him though.
I think he's going to get there. I think JP is going to get there. I think he wants to
get there. I think he is literally watching film right now and he's begging Anthony Weaver
to let him come off the edge on a blitz begging for it. So yeah.
So I'm going to I'm going to take the over and I think Jordan Poyer and what is hopefully
his only highlight of the game gets a sack on Josh Allen.
Go ahead.
Yeah, I've got I've got a prop for you.
Yep.
Keon Coleman, plus or minus half a touchdown. Does he does he get his touchdown his first
rookie season touchdown in this game?
I don't think so. I think I think when he's in the red zone, I think they're going to
stick Ramsay on him, depending on how healthy Ramsay is. And Ramsay is it for whatever you
want to say about how the dude runs his mouth. Like he is a very man corner. He's a really
good man corner and Coleman, despite his athletic gifts, he's just not he's just not ready for
that. So I'm going to say under because I just don't think it happens unless it's on
a busted coverage or or an absolute deep bomb down the field. But Coleman is just not there
with a separation or his his physicality yet.
I'm saying over, I believe in the Rook. Let's do this.
Let's do this thing. All right, I got one more for you. And this is inspired by the
Jacksonville Jaguars relative success here against the Miami Dolphins in the rush game.
The Miami Dolphins, JJ right now are sitting at 100.5 yards on draft Kings for total amount
of rush yards expected against the Buffalo Bills on Thursday. JJ, are you taking the
over or the under on that line? Do the bills successfully hold the Miami Dolphins to under
100 rushing yards?
Yes. I think they hold them to under 100 rushing yards because this is my reasoning.
I believe that the Bills have it in their capacity to get up on this team early. And
so to a May throw for like 400 yards. But I think it's because the Bills are going to
try to get them off of a paced attack and get a score to a head. Because again, I'm
the person who's believing this is going to get into the 30s, even with the curse of Thursday
night football. And so I think that the Bills get ahead on the scoreboard a little bit and
force the Dolphins to try to play with a little bit more urgency, which means more passing.
I'm going to take the under two, but it's not based on anything scheme wise. It's all
vibes. I just I don't like I just I don't like what I saw from this Miami Dolphins rush
game that was so potent last year. They were at home in favorable conditions against a
very gettable opponent in the Jacksonville Jaguars. And they just couldn't get anything
going, anything going in the Bills defensive line. Again, questions overall about how this
team is going to defend their own long long term this season. But this just feels like
a really good matchup with this Bills defensive line against this revamped Miami Dolphins offensive
line. And the vibes just feel weird in this running back room. I don't Jeff Wilson, Jr.
had a sighting yesterday. He had more touches than either a most or more. It was it. Yeah,
he had more touches than most are most are it was used way less, which is curious to
me. Yeah. And if anyone's if anyone's like a long term listener of the pod, you know
this well in the absence of data or analytics, sometimes it's vibes.
It is. It's it was it's a lot of vibes on this podcast, which is why these things always
go wrong. But yeah, man, I'm going to take the under two. And I just hope we're right.
And I hope we're looking at a Bills win to an oh, to start the season with all this
kind of rest. Yeah, yes, a little bit of a back for week three.
Yeah, yes, we could use this. We could use this. But we'll see. We'll see. All right,
JJ. Quick show note here for everybody listening. We have teased the idea of YouTube on this
pod a couple of times in the show closing. We want to let everybody low know all of our
listeners give you a heads up that we are going to be rolling out a YouTube channel
for Buffalo bread. We are going to kick things off very, I think appropriately with the Kansas
City Chiefs return to Buffalo this regular season. So from the Kansas City Chiefs game
through the end, we are going to be rolling out this podcast on Spotify on Apple, but
also as a video podcast on YouTube is another way for you to enjoy what me and JJ try to
bring to the table every week for you all. So very excited to announce that I need to
lose 30 pounds before we do this, which is really why we're not rolling it out now.
You still you still I got to get better for the camera.
Yeah, you still the thunder. I was going to say I have to lose the 10 pounds that the
camera is going to add. And then everyone's going to be able to enjoy my like overacting,
you know, Jim from the office responses to your takes throughout the pod.
I think I think I'm just going to I'm going to invest in a really good AI filter for myself,
right? This is this is what we're going to do. It's going to take a weight off for me.
Absolutely. All right, so for everybody listening at home, like share and subscribe wherever
you get your podcast, YouTube becoming Apple and Spotify. And as always, go bills, go
bills.