1
00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:10,360
Welcome back to the Buffalo Bread podcast. It's Saturday. Tomorrow, the Buffalo Bills

2
00:00:10,360 --> 00:00:16,480
face off at home, the home opener and the season opener against the Arizona Cardinals.

3
00:00:16,480 --> 00:00:22,320
An uncommon opponent who there has been recent history. The bills have a little bit of bad

4
00:00:22,320 --> 00:00:26,760
blood based on the last meeting. Dan, what are you thinking about this matchup? How are

5
00:00:26,760 --> 00:00:27,760
you doing, my friend?

6
00:00:27,760 --> 00:00:32,040
I'm doing well. Thank you for asking. And I am thinking a couple of things off the top

7
00:00:32,040 --> 00:00:38,320
of my head. Whenever we pregame on the pod for a game that the bill should win handily,

8
00:00:38,320 --> 00:00:43,760
it inevitably turns into a stupid bills game. One of just the dumbest games you could possibly

9
00:00:43,760 --> 00:00:49,400
imagine. That Jacksonville game where we will forever be one of the three wins that Urban

10
00:00:49,400 --> 00:00:55,200
Meyer recorded as a head coach. The Giants game, DeBull's return. The Minnesota Vikings

11
00:00:55,200 --> 00:01:00,640
game where Justin Jefferson made that ridiculous catch. The list goes on and on. Oh, the Denver

12
00:01:00,640 --> 00:01:06,480
Broncos game last season, which we, of course, can't forget. The bills, JJ, have a history

13
00:01:06,480 --> 00:01:12,840
of playing down to their opponent. We've seen it time and time again. My major concern here

14
00:01:12,840 --> 00:01:18,340
is that we have a very beatable opponent coming into Highmark in week one with regard to preparation

15
00:01:18,340 --> 00:01:21,400
for this game, how the roster stack up.

16
00:01:21,400 --> 00:01:26,160
Inevitably, though, I can't help but shirk the feeling that something wild is going to

17
00:01:26,160 --> 00:01:30,680
happen that's going to make this game way closer than it needs to be. So I'm in a very

18
00:01:30,680 --> 00:01:35,480
common place as a Bill's fan. I'm living with dread, fear and excitement because we get

19
00:01:35,480 --> 00:01:37,120
meaningful football back.

20
00:01:37,120 --> 00:01:41,960
Yeah, I think that just this excitement of a season starting, I think, is everywhere

21
00:01:41,960 --> 00:01:47,920
in Bill's mafia, but the trepidation and worry of, you know, this team underperforming the

22
00:01:47,920 --> 00:01:54,360
lofty expectations that we've come to expect year over year is out there too. I mean, just

23
00:01:54,360 --> 00:01:59,840
in the circles I run in and the bills fans, I know there's a lot of I don't know what

24
00:01:59,840 --> 00:02:03,440
the season is going to be. I'm not going to get too high or get my hopes up too high

25
00:02:03,440 --> 00:02:09,560
because the change, the turnover or the youth movement, it's a lot to to fit into one season

26
00:02:09,560 --> 00:02:14,960
for me to expect, you know, repeat amazing performances. And I think there's also the

27
00:02:14,960 --> 00:02:20,520
general I think in Bill's mafia, there's the general worn down nature of the way the

28
00:02:20,520 --> 00:02:26,360
team has exited is that there's huge expectations every year. And then every year they basically

29
00:02:26,360 --> 00:02:32,280
fall fall short in the divisional round. So I feel like maybe this is a point in time

30
00:02:32,280 --> 00:02:37,200
and the team with so much turnover may be feeling this as well where, okay, something's

31
00:02:37,200 --> 00:02:42,440
got to change. Are we going to be bad for a bit? Or is this the way that the bills need

32
00:02:42,440 --> 00:02:46,760
to move forward to get over that proverbial hump that everyone always mentions? And I

33
00:02:46,760 --> 00:02:52,360
agree like every bills game that that we talk about, we're like, Oh, slam dunk, there's

34
00:02:52,360 --> 00:02:57,560
no way that an inferior opponent can walk in the high mark stadium and win this tends

35
00:02:57,560 --> 00:02:59,200
to get get weird.

36
00:02:59,200 --> 00:03:06,480
Yeah, so let's let's talk about why this game could get weird JJ right off the jump.

37
00:03:06,480 --> 00:03:12,720
The Cardinals on paper have a lot of deficits compared to this Buffalo bills roster, even

38
00:03:12,720 --> 00:03:18,480
with the aforementioned turnover that you talk about. However, the Cardinals are really,

39
00:03:18,480 --> 00:03:23,880
really good at the one thing that it looks like the bills are going to be really, really

40
00:03:23,880 --> 00:03:31,360
bad at at least on defense. And that is the rush game. So last year, JJ the Cardinals

41
00:03:31,360 --> 00:03:37,720
finished four and 13 overall defensive metrics were not great. Even though after Kylo Maria

42
00:03:37,720 --> 00:03:44,000
returns was a top 10 offense passing and rushing and overall efficiency. They never quite got

43
00:03:44,000 --> 00:03:47,760
the passing game going for a couple of reasons that we'll talk about later on when we really

44
00:03:47,760 --> 00:03:53,000
get into keys to the game. But one of the things they absolutely nailed was their rush

45
00:03:53,000 --> 00:04:01,320
scheme. They were third JJ in an offensive rushing efficiency behind the Buffalo bills.

46
00:04:01,320 --> 00:04:06,760
And the San Francisco 49ers. This is a unit you would not have expected that out of when

47
00:04:06,760 --> 00:04:11,480
you look at that roster last year and this year top to bottom across the offensive line,

48
00:04:11,480 --> 00:04:15,520
not a lot of known names on there. But when you start breaking down the film, take a look

49
00:04:15,520 --> 00:04:21,360
at the schemes that they're running, they're literally utilizing all 11 guys on the field

50
00:04:21,360 --> 00:04:27,720
at the same time in this Russian game, including their wide receivers that are experts in sealing

51
00:04:27,720 --> 00:04:33,920
off opposing DB's that look to get their run fits off the edge and stymie this Arizona

52
00:04:33,920 --> 00:04:39,880
Cardinals run game. There are a lot of things that the Cardinals can't do well enough to

53
00:04:39,880 --> 00:04:44,360
beat the bills. But JJ this is one of those things. And if they choose to stick to the

54
00:04:44,360 --> 00:04:50,240
run, and if they choose to pound that nickel heavy type of format, the bills like to call

55
00:04:50,240 --> 00:04:55,400
their defensive plays in, they could really slow this game down. They could take the air

56
00:04:55,400 --> 00:04:59,560
out of the ball, they could keep Josh off the field, which in my mind, might actually

57
00:04:59,560 --> 00:05:04,240
spur on some urgency for this bill's offense. And it could go one or two ways. Either we

58
00:05:04,240 --> 00:05:09,040
get super hyped up Josh, who feels like he's in the fourth quarter every minute of the game

59
00:05:09,040 --> 00:05:14,880
and throws three picks like you did last year against the Jets, or this new scheme and the

60
00:05:14,880 --> 00:05:19,760
alleviation of pressure that Joe Brady is looking to take off of Josh Allen via the run game

61
00:05:19,760 --> 00:05:24,960
kicks in as well. But JJ if I'm the Arizona Cardinals and I want to go up against this

62
00:05:24,960 --> 00:05:30,080
Buffalo bills unit at home week one, and I want to make a statement, I am pounding the

63
00:05:30,080 --> 00:05:35,600
rock relentlessly, and I'm making them prove that they can stop it.

64
00:05:35,600 --> 00:05:40,240
Well, and I think you have a great point, which is when we've seen the bills played

65
00:05:40,240 --> 00:05:46,600
down to teams that we would consider not as good in roster or team build or coordinators

66
00:05:46,600 --> 00:05:50,960
or whatever it might be. It's usually they're being out physical at the point of attack

67
00:05:50,960 --> 00:05:57,080
on both sides of the line. And so if they are getting beat up on defense by the Cardinals

68
00:05:57,080 --> 00:06:02,160
running the ball, and James Connor, who's sort of an amazing story and a very, very

69
00:06:02,160 --> 00:06:09,560
solid, solid unspectacular rusher, I think that you know, that could spell trouble for

70
00:06:09,560 --> 00:06:14,760
the bills. Because if they are the if the bills are not the ones who set that physical

71
00:06:14,760 --> 00:06:18,840
tone, they tend to never be able to capture it throughout a game. It's not often that

72
00:06:18,840 --> 00:06:25,120
they come into a game. And you know, it's a story of two halves where they're it's usually

73
00:06:25,120 --> 00:06:29,040
they're being out physical the whole time. And sometimes they pull it out by finessing

74
00:06:29,040 --> 00:06:33,880
and you know, Josh Allen doing some Superman type stuff in the second half or the fourth

75
00:06:33,880 --> 00:06:38,160
quarter that they that they pull out those games. But it's it's weird because in the

76
00:06:38,160 --> 00:06:43,520
in the McDermott era, this isn't a team that seems to be able to change its tone throughout

77
00:06:43,520 --> 00:06:46,960
the course of a game. And I don't know that there's many NFL teams that do. I think it's

78
00:06:46,960 --> 00:06:52,680
a thing that you kind of establish or you don't. So I worry about that as well. I think

79
00:06:52,680 --> 00:06:56,840
to one of the things that the Buffalo Bills under McDermott and with this defense and

80
00:06:56,840 --> 00:07:03,360
with Bobby Babbage as a first time coordinator, we'll have to see is how the bills handle

81
00:07:03,360 --> 00:07:08,160
a mobile quarterback, they've struggled with this in the past. They struggle with this

82
00:07:08,160 --> 00:07:12,980
with Patrick Mahomes, so I wouldn't even consider really a dual threat quarterback. He's sort

83
00:07:12,980 --> 00:07:18,680
of a pocket passer who can move move a bit, bit better than average. But Kyler Murray

84
00:07:18,680 --> 00:07:24,440
has a real threat with his legs and is incredibly evasive. I think that he's small enough that

85
00:07:24,440 --> 00:07:28,880
if you get hands on him, you get him down, but he does not let many people touch him.

86
00:07:28,880 --> 00:07:33,320
And JJ, that's an awesome segue, I think into keys to the game. I don't want to start with

87
00:07:33,320 --> 00:07:39,240
the bills D because this to me is the unit that in the face of all the off high profile

88
00:07:39,240 --> 00:07:44,400
offensive room transition we've seen this off season with departure of Mitch Morse,

89
00:07:44,400 --> 00:07:48,960
Stefan Diggs, Gabe Davis, everyone's been focused on what the offense is going to look

90
00:07:48,960 --> 00:07:54,360
like. But this defense JJ has gone under a bit of transformation in and of itself and

91
00:07:54,360 --> 00:08:00,440
of the two units, it's also probably the most banged up right now. We know what the situation

92
00:08:00,440 --> 00:08:05,360
at safety is. DeMar Hamlin going to get his first start. Great story, absolutely. But

93
00:08:05,360 --> 00:08:09,400
not I think the way the bill scripted it at the beginning of the off season when they

94
00:08:09,400 --> 00:08:15,600
signed Mike Edwards and they extended Taylor Rapp. Matt Milano, we all know is out. Duane

95
00:08:15,600 --> 00:08:20,440
Smoot shows up on the injury report as a result of a practice injury that he suffered. And

96
00:08:20,440 --> 00:08:24,360
then all of a sudden you take a look around this bill's defense and some of the pieces

97
00:08:24,360 --> 00:08:28,840
that they were counting on aren't going to be here for week one. So it'll be interesting

98
00:08:28,840 --> 00:08:34,240
to see what Babbage is going to do. So you bring up a really good point about Kyler Murray

99
00:08:34,240 --> 00:08:39,000
being a mobile quarterback. And this is a dude who loves to extend the pocket, get out

100
00:08:39,000 --> 00:08:44,440
of the pocket, get creative and make things happen. One of the things that Kyler Murray

101
00:08:44,440 --> 00:08:51,800
is really susceptible to is straight up four man pressure. If you blitz Kyler Murray over

102
00:08:51,800 --> 00:08:56,120
the past two seasons, he tends to kill you for a lot of different reasons. One is that

103
00:08:56,120 --> 00:09:01,120
mobility that you talked about to a lot of blitz packages that teams run against Murray

104
00:09:01,120 --> 00:09:07,160
tend to come off the edges and he's got such good mobility to scoot around those dime looks,

105
00:09:07,160 --> 00:09:12,040
those cornerback blitzes, linebackers coming off the edge, it frees him up and puts him

106
00:09:12,040 --> 00:09:18,720
in exactly the spot he wants to be against the blitz. He had a 112 pass rating last season.

107
00:09:18,720 --> 00:09:25,920
When he faced four man pressure, organic pressure, 40 point difference in the negative territory

108
00:09:25,920 --> 00:09:31,120
and he was a below average passer. It's going to be key for the bills JJ not just to get

109
00:09:31,120 --> 00:09:36,120
organic pressure, but get pressure in the right location. Listen, we can make a lot

110
00:09:36,120 --> 00:09:41,560
of short jokes if we want to, but the reality is this Kyler Murray is 510 and with his cleats

111
00:09:41,560 --> 00:09:47,880
and really thick socks on is a short quarterback and he is very susceptible to pocket compression

112
00:09:47,880 --> 00:09:52,640
up the middle. If the bills, I'm not even talking about sacking Kyler Murray, if the

113
00:09:52,640 --> 00:09:58,200
bills are able to get pressure up the middle with Jones and with Oliver and whoever they

114
00:09:58,200 --> 00:10:03,760
have on the edge, be it Epinezza, be it Rousseau, be it Vaughn Miller in certain situations,

115
00:10:03,760 --> 00:10:10,560
if they maintain rush lane integrity and they compress the pocket on all sides, that is

116
00:10:10,560 --> 00:10:15,040
where Kyler Murray is susceptible to making mistakes, but also being very ineffective

117
00:10:15,040 --> 00:10:20,240
as a QB. So JJ, for me, that is point number one and I don't expect that the bills are

118
00:10:20,240 --> 00:10:24,320
going to roll out a lot of blitz packages. It really hasn't been their thing under McDermott.

119
00:10:24,320 --> 00:10:29,280
I don't see Babich really being a seat change when it comes to that. So the bills MO with

120
00:10:29,280 --> 00:10:34,440
the defensive line with four man rushes should do the trick as long as they're maintaining

121
00:10:34,440 --> 00:10:35,920
rush lane integrity.

122
00:10:35,920 --> 00:10:40,760
Well, and I think that that is something again, you know, you mentioned the change in defensive

123
00:10:40,760 --> 00:10:45,720
coordinator that I also brought up earlier in the pot. That is something that is going

124
00:10:45,720 --> 00:10:49,600
to be very telling because the bills will be playing Lamar Jackson in just a few short

125
00:10:49,600 --> 00:10:56,360
weeks. And they have proven to be very good at disciplined compression style rushes with

126
00:10:56,360 --> 00:11:01,760
just the front four in, you know, in combating a mobile quarterback, somebody who likes to

127
00:11:01,760 --> 00:11:05,600
extend the plane, get outside the pocket, outside the edges, they do just sort of use

128
00:11:05,600 --> 00:11:12,200
the squeeze rush or the mush rush towards the middle. And that hopefully carries through

129
00:11:12,200 --> 00:11:16,240
with Bobby Babich running things here. Because I think that when you get into trouble against

130
00:11:16,240 --> 00:11:21,520
quarterbacks like Kyler Mary, like Lamar Jackson, like Anthony Richardson, some others that

131
00:11:21,520 --> 00:11:28,080
they'll see down the road. It's when you start to do really complex twists and stunts, and

132
00:11:28,080 --> 00:11:33,040
you create strange rifts in the middle of the line, where there might be a gap and you're

133
00:11:33,040 --> 00:11:37,720
stretching, you're stretching out the guards and tackles. And that may be a benefit to

134
00:11:37,720 --> 00:11:41,680
your linebackers if you have a blitz call on or something like that. But it's also a

135
00:11:41,680 --> 00:11:45,200
benefit to a quarterback who's shifty enough. And we see it all the time with Josh Allen

136
00:11:45,200 --> 00:11:49,560
as our quarterback in the bills, right? Like, if teams do pretty complicated stunts and

137
00:11:49,560 --> 00:11:54,520
things and create voids in the line anywhere, he will make them pay. And so I think that

138
00:11:54,520 --> 00:11:59,720
that's something that will be interesting. And kind of as a point with you mentioned

139
00:11:59,720 --> 00:12:04,640
him extending the plays and things like that. Kyler Murray is also not he has not been a

140
00:12:04,640 --> 00:12:11,800
super successful downfield passer the last couple of seasons. And that I think was one

141
00:12:11,800 --> 00:12:18,040
of his calling cards, specifically early in his career. And so I'm sure that is the kind

142
00:12:18,040 --> 00:12:23,120
of thing he wants to to come back around to. But he really has been, you know, extend the

143
00:12:23,120 --> 00:12:29,400
play, hit your first read, try to distribute the ball, escape the rush, you know, distribute

144
00:12:29,400 --> 00:12:33,440
the ball to somebody in a void that's created as you extend the play, those sorts of things

145
00:12:33,440 --> 00:12:39,120
is how he's doing is he's a bit of a check down Charlie. And so I really think that

146
00:12:39,120 --> 00:12:45,520
the bills, they need the front four, as you mentioned, to bring it and stay disciplined.

147
00:12:45,520 --> 00:12:49,760
But then they also need Dorian Williams. I think Dorian Williams will have a very good

148
00:12:49,760 --> 00:12:54,920
game against the run, because I think that's where he's best. But I really worry about

149
00:12:54,920 --> 00:12:59,760
play action and extended plays, because the Cardinals have Tray McBride, who's one of

150
00:12:59,760 --> 00:13:04,440
the best young, you know, tight ends in the league, and he can find some space, he'll

151
00:13:04,440 --> 00:13:09,880
find places in soft coverage, especially in the zone that the bills like to run. If a

152
00:13:09,880 --> 00:13:15,320
play is extended, he'll find a spot sit down and give Murray that check down outlet.

153
00:13:15,320 --> 00:13:19,320
Yeah, man, totally agree. And Murray is going to be looking for that. And it's interesting

154
00:13:19,320 --> 00:13:25,520
because his decline as a downfield passer coincided with two things, I think the departure

155
00:13:25,520 --> 00:13:31,880
of Deandre Hopkins, who bills fans will always love for the Hail Murray. But also the scheme

156
00:13:31,880 --> 00:13:38,320
that Cliff Kingsbury wanted to run was very much so short area yardage passing. There

157
00:13:38,320 --> 00:13:43,960
wasn't a lot of pre snap motion. There wasn't a lot of creativity in the sets. Like, I don't

158
00:13:43,960 --> 00:13:48,400
know how Cliff Kingsbury keeps getting jobs. Everyone's like, Yeah, Kingsbury and Jane

159
00:13:48,400 --> 00:13:52,480
Daniels in Washington, it's a match made in heaven. I'm like, Is it Daniels wants to

160
00:13:52,480 --> 00:13:57,800
push the ball downfield and Cliff Kingsbury schemes up anything but doing that. So I think

161
00:13:57,800 --> 00:14:03,560
a couple of things. The scheme looks in the personnel, we're in a downward trajectory

162
00:14:03,560 --> 00:14:09,400
as this decline in Murray's downfield game began. Enter Marvin Harrison, Jr. who was

163
00:14:09,400 --> 00:14:15,040
a real X factor in this game. But he's got this tools, he's got the speed, he's got the

164
00:14:15,040 --> 00:14:21,720
route running ability, the attack at the point of catchability, where this could be exactly

165
00:14:21,720 --> 00:14:27,320
what the Cardinals need to remedy that downfield, that downfield and up to two that they've

166
00:14:27,320 --> 00:14:32,400
experienced over the last two seasons. And JJ, based on where the safety room is at right

167
00:14:32,400 --> 00:14:37,080
now with Taylor Rap and Damar Hamlin, you've got to imagine that the Cardinals are going

168
00:14:37,080 --> 00:14:41,520
to pound the rock, force the bills to condense, and then they're going to want to take their

169
00:14:41,520 --> 00:14:46,360
shots against Marvin Harrison and really test the roof on this defense as well.

170
00:14:46,360 --> 00:14:50,920
Well, I think that that also, you know, they're going to want to test the roof, but they can't

171
00:14:50,920 --> 00:14:58,520
test the roof when the bills are sitting in a, you know, center field closed look or a

172
00:14:58,520 --> 00:15:02,800
center field open look, which is what they usually do because Kyle Murray is not he is

173
00:15:02,800 --> 00:15:07,240
not an out. He does not thrive in passing down the middle of the field because of the

174
00:15:07,240 --> 00:15:11,160
issues of being a shorter quarterback. It's harder for him to see it. He likes to get

175
00:15:11,160 --> 00:15:15,960
out on the fringes and throw down the sidelines. And that's the way the bills defense has been

176
00:15:15,960 --> 00:15:22,320
built since Sean McDermott came into town has been to really shut down those sidelines

177
00:15:22,320 --> 00:15:27,040
and force teams to hit things between the, the hashes in the middle of the field downfield

178
00:15:27,040 --> 00:15:32,200
where Sean McDermott's safeties like to eat, you know, that's a good spot for them. Even

179
00:15:32,200 --> 00:15:36,600
when they're in split coverage is oftentimes he, he coaches them to have a good sense of

180
00:15:36,600 --> 00:15:40,000
what's happening in the backfield to get to where the ball is going to be to help, you

181
00:15:40,000 --> 00:15:43,600
know, corners who are in coverage in that area or linebackers who are kind of dragging

182
00:15:43,600 --> 00:15:49,800
down the seam. And so really, I think that what you bring up is sort of a nightmare scenario

183
00:15:49,800 --> 00:15:54,560
where the bills are struggling so much to stop the run that they have to bring a safety

184
00:15:54,560 --> 00:16:00,120
into the box, that they have to use a single deep coverage because then it's Kyler Murray's,

185
00:16:00,120 --> 00:16:04,640
you know, that's his most ideal situation is that he starts to escape the pocket a little

186
00:16:04,640 --> 00:16:09,720
bit and he starts hitting sideline balls deep. And I don't think there's a single player

187
00:16:09,720 --> 00:16:13,360
on the field based on the skill set, even though he's not played a single starting snap

188
00:16:13,360 --> 00:16:18,320
in a full actual season game. There's not a player on that bill's team who has the skill

189
00:16:18,320 --> 00:16:24,160
set or physicality or athleticism to cover Marvin Harrison one on one, just there just

190
00:16:24,160 --> 00:16:29,680
isn't. No, and I would put Resoul Douglas in there as well as good as he is right. Yeah,

191
00:16:29,680 --> 00:16:33,880
oh yeah, no, there's not a person. No, no, Marvin Harrison, Jr. You hope this is not

192
00:16:33,880 --> 00:16:38,320
a coming out party for him. But JJ, I think the Cardinals are going to try to force the

193
00:16:38,320 --> 00:16:44,800
bills into that nightmare scenario. The Buffalo bills do they they played nickel against 12

194
00:16:44,800 --> 00:16:52,520
personnel and three tight end personnel last season at a 93.4% rate last year, which is

195
00:16:52,520 --> 00:16:57,840
heads and tails the highest in the league. Like they are stubborn to this point. But

196
00:16:57,840 --> 00:17:01,280
because they've had to rel Bernard because they had to remain Edmonds before him because

197
00:17:01,280 --> 00:17:05,560
they've had the luxury of Matt Milano, though not over the past two seasons, they can do

198
00:17:05,560 --> 00:17:10,920
this kind of stuff. It feels weird to say it, but the way the Arizona Cardinals want

199
00:17:10,920 --> 00:17:17,000
to run the ball is so uniquely tuned to the weaknesses of this defense. I feel like the

200
00:17:17,000 --> 00:17:21,480
defensive scheme here is going to be tested very early on. And I think we're going to

201
00:17:21,480 --> 00:17:25,080
be looking at a really close game for the first half. And it'll be interesting to see

202
00:17:25,080 --> 00:17:29,280
what kind of adjustments the bills are going to make should this nightmare scenario play

203
00:17:29,280 --> 00:17:36,360
out early on in the game. But JJ, that's the bad news. You and I are I think both think

204
00:17:36,360 --> 00:17:41,440
that this bill's defense just because of the way this Cardinals offense is schemed up could

205
00:17:41,440 --> 00:17:46,560
very well be susceptible to some pretty gnarly stuff. On the flip side, though, when you

206
00:17:46,560 --> 00:17:52,200
take a look at this bill's offense, this revamped, reveal bills offense, JJ, there's a lot of

207
00:17:52,200 --> 00:17:57,240
like there's a lot to like about this game. And we've talked ad nauseam about the Cardinals

208
00:17:57,240 --> 00:18:02,520
ability to run the ball on this bill's defense. JJ, the bills are going to have an opportunity

209
00:18:02,520 --> 00:18:08,600
to eat there as well. The Arizona Cardinals by whatever metric you want to take DVOA,

210
00:18:08,600 --> 00:18:16,560
efficiency, success rate, we're the worst or at best third worst team when it came to

211
00:18:16,560 --> 00:18:23,160
defending opposing teams against the run last season. And JJ, how bad was it? They allowed

212
00:18:23,160 --> 00:18:30,280
a league worst 4.87 adjusted line yards against running backs and traditional run sets. And

213
00:18:30,280 --> 00:18:34,480
at the second level, because of the lightness of the linebacker core, they allowed another

214
00:18:34,480 --> 00:18:40,280
almost yard and a half. So tape put it put it this way, every time a team wanted to run

215
00:18:40,280 --> 00:18:44,520
the ball against the Cardinals, they were almost guaranteed six yards right off the

216
00:18:44,520 --> 00:18:50,160
pop. We know that they have issues at the linebacker core. Xavin Collins, who had been

217
00:18:50,160 --> 00:18:55,080
locking that core down for Arizona for a while, has now gotten his contract extension, congrats

218
00:18:55,080 --> 00:18:59,440
to him. But he's also now flipped to edge rusher because of the issues the Cardinals

219
00:18:59,440 --> 00:19:06,160
have getting a consistent pass rush there. So JJ, the Buffalo bills in this revamped offensive

220
00:19:06,160 --> 00:19:10,320
line in this Brady, what we think will be run heavy scheme is going to have a chance

221
00:19:10,320 --> 00:19:18,600
to eat against a light, a well coached, but under maned defensive unit, at least in the

222
00:19:18,600 --> 00:19:21,320
run game. And I think that's where the bills are probably hopefully going to make some

223
00:19:21,320 --> 00:19:22,320
hay.

224
00:19:22,320 --> 00:19:27,400
Well, you're absolutely right. One of the worst defenses against the run and one of

225
00:19:27,400 --> 00:19:36,040
the worst pass rushes in the league last year, decided to improve that by signing two starting

226
00:19:36,040 --> 00:19:42,080
caliber but probably replacement level tackles to the center of their defense, their 4-3

227
00:19:42,080 --> 00:19:47,400
defense and moving Xavin Collins from linebacker to defensive end. Not to mention they lost

228
00:19:47,400 --> 00:19:53,760
BJ O'Jallari and Darius Robinson, their rookie, you know, first round pick, both of them to

229
00:19:53,760 --> 00:20:01,240
injury. So like they were already a bad unit and now they're also an injury depleted unit.

230
00:20:01,240 --> 00:20:06,520
Absolutely JJ. And that is going to not just play have an effect in the run game. I feel

231
00:20:06,520 --> 00:20:11,600
like it's going to have an impact in the passing game as well. So everyone is going to be very

232
00:20:11,600 --> 00:20:16,480
interested to see what this Buffalo bills wide receiver room is going to do against

233
00:20:16,480 --> 00:20:22,720
this porous Arizona Cardinals defense. But JJ, there's going to be opportunities that

234
00:20:22,720 --> 00:20:27,200
play so well into the scheme we believe Brady wants to run in the passing game, which is

235
00:20:27,200 --> 00:20:31,440
utilization of the running backs out of the backfield and utilization of 12 personnel

236
00:20:31,440 --> 00:20:37,920
with Dalton, Cenkade and Dawson and Dawson Knox. Last season, JJ, Arizona was 31st in

237
00:20:37,920 --> 00:20:43,840
overall DVOA when defending opposing tight ends in the passing game and 29th defending

238
00:20:43,840 --> 00:20:50,600
running backs, catching balls out of the backfield. Joe Brady, one of the signatures of his game

239
00:20:50,600 --> 00:20:57,040
to game play calling style is that he knew exactly what the opposing teams weakness was

240
00:20:57,040 --> 00:21:02,160
and he was going to pound on it. I think this is going to be a coming out party for Dalton,

241
00:21:02,160 --> 00:21:07,240
Cenkade. This is going to feel like that breakout moment we've been waiting him to have because

242
00:21:07,240 --> 00:21:10,800
as we said on the other side of the ball, there's not a person on the bill's defensive

243
00:21:10,800 --> 00:21:15,360
roster that can match up with Marvin Harrison, Jr. I don't think there's anybody in that

244
00:21:15,360 --> 00:21:22,160
safety room, Bouda Baker included, or in that linebacker room for Arizona that's going

245
00:21:22,160 --> 00:21:28,240
to be able to keep pace with Dalton, Cenkade. Add to that, James Cook, Granity's had some

246
00:21:28,240 --> 00:21:33,200
drop issues in the preseason. James Cook, Ray Davis out of the backfield. I am feeling

247
00:21:33,200 --> 00:21:39,800
good about the bill's ability to utilize their heavy sets and pass out of those sets.

248
00:21:39,800 --> 00:21:43,400
Not to mention Curtis Samuel lined up in the backfield running wheel routes and things

249
00:21:43,400 --> 00:21:47,720
like that. I think that that would track as well with the Arizona Cardinals' deficiency

250
00:21:47,720 --> 00:21:52,120
in coverage of being able to pick up people coming out of the backfield and knowing that

251
00:21:52,120 --> 00:21:56,720
that's a way that Brady likes to use Curtis Samuel. I agree. I'm excited for those. I'm

252
00:21:56,720 --> 00:22:01,520
just generally excited because the bill's offensive unit as a whole spent what, eight

253
00:22:01,520 --> 00:22:04,120
snaps together?

254
00:22:04,120 --> 00:22:08,400
Something to that effect, yeah. We haven't really seen and they haven't really put a

255
00:22:08,400 --> 00:22:13,120
lot on film intentionally about what they want to do. We have gotten some nuggets and

256
00:22:13,120 --> 00:22:17,440
some kernels based on the formations that they've run, the way they've built this roster

257
00:22:17,440 --> 00:22:23,680
and remade it and this ball distribution image that they want Jesse Allen to be this point

258
00:22:23,680 --> 00:22:28,760
guard for this unit. It's going to be interesting to see it all come together. In JJ, there

259
00:22:28,760 --> 00:22:34,440
is literally not a better opponent you could script to have this scheme rolled out in its

260
00:22:34,440 --> 00:22:40,480
full usage for the first time. The only thing, and I feel like we have said this year after

261
00:22:40,480 --> 00:22:45,360
year after year that will keep the bill's offense from successfully executing against

262
00:22:45,360 --> 00:22:49,840
what could very well be one of the worst defenses in the league when it's all said and done

263
00:22:49,840 --> 00:22:55,040
is going to be themselves. This is an offensive unit that needs to limit mistakes. And yes,

264
00:22:55,040 --> 00:23:00,800
Josh, we are talking to you. It is the Arizona Cardinals in week one. I know you're going

265
00:23:00,800 --> 00:23:04,440
to want to take those whole shots down the field. In Arizona, dude, they're going to

266
00:23:04,440 --> 00:23:10,200
bait him into it. This is a unit that despite their ineptitude was doing a ton of crazy

267
00:23:10,200 --> 00:23:15,040
stuff when you look at their film. They were mimicking a lot of stuff that we lauded the

268
00:23:15,040 --> 00:23:22,080
bills DBs for doing last season with the way they disguised coverage pre and post snap.

269
00:23:22,080 --> 00:23:26,480
Different level of talent. So a different level of efficacy. I'm not saying that they're

270
00:23:26,480 --> 00:23:32,040
going to bait Josh into a lot of big mistakes. But they might fool him a couple of times

271
00:23:32,040 --> 00:23:35,880
because we know Josh gets hyped up for week one, man. He's just so freaking excited to

272
00:23:35,880 --> 00:23:40,600
be playing football at this point. We saw it with the Jets last year, even in that Rams

273
00:23:40,600 --> 00:23:44,920
game, he threw two picks in that Rams game where the bills absolutely blew LA out of

274
00:23:44,920 --> 00:23:54,560
the water. Like week one is Josh at peak amplitude. And I just want him to remember this is Arizona.

275
00:23:54,560 --> 00:24:00,080
Take the bait man. There's stuff that they can't do. Just focus on the stuff that they

276
00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:05,360
can't do. Don't let that disguise coverage or those post and pre snap moves. Don't let

277
00:24:05,360 --> 00:24:07,880
a bait you're my friend.

278
00:24:07,880 --> 00:24:14,600
Don't get so thirsty for a Keon Coleman first NFL touchdown that you're like zipping out

279
00:24:14,600 --> 00:24:20,320
long bombs into triple coverage. Just because it looks open for the half second after the

280
00:24:20,320 --> 00:24:24,360
snap. Like it's that's the thing I'm worried about too. Especially if the Cardinals come

281
00:24:24,360 --> 00:24:28,160
out and run a bunch and keep Josh Allen off the field. And then when he comes out, he

282
00:24:28,160 --> 00:24:31,120
feels pressure to win it all with one throw.

283
00:24:31,120 --> 00:24:35,160
Right. And we've said it before, we'll say it again. There is no such thing as a 20 point

284
00:24:35,160 --> 00:24:41,160
touchdown in the NFL. So please play within yourselves. Buffalo Bills. It's Arizona week

285
00:24:41,160 --> 00:24:46,680
one at home. You have a brutal schedule ahead of you. You literally could not have asked

286
00:24:46,680 --> 00:24:49,120
for a better tune up game against this defense.

287
00:24:49,120 --> 00:24:53,520
Get get it done. Get out of there. Get out of there healthy. Get it done.

288
00:24:53,520 --> 00:24:56,520
Obviously. All right. Give the fans something to celebrate.

289
00:24:56,520 --> 00:25:02,760
Absolutely. All right, JJ. Let's move on. It's back. Prediction sure to go wrong, my friend.

290
00:25:02,760 --> 00:25:06,760
Our signature segment, us being wrong is what everybody shows up and listens to this pod

291
00:25:06,760 --> 00:25:13,040
for. And we are back, baby. So we've laid out the keys to the game. JJ, it's time to put

292
00:25:13,040 --> 00:25:17,800
our money where our mouth is. Let's talk about some predictions. Final score. What do you

293
00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:22,640
got? And just so we're aware, bills are favored by six and a half points in this game. And

294
00:25:22,640 --> 00:25:27,080
the over and around this game since at about 47 points.

295
00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:32,800
I have I have a 34 24 bills win. So I think that they cover. I think that they hit the

296
00:25:32,800 --> 00:25:38,320
over and I think that Arizona comes. They might get some extra possessions, but the

297
00:25:38,320 --> 00:25:40,480
bills ultimately win.

298
00:25:40,480 --> 00:25:43,920
I agree. I think it's going to be a little bit closer, though. I think people are going

299
00:25:43,920 --> 00:25:50,720
to be surprised by how close it is. I've got bills 31 Cardinals 28. I think the bills

300
00:25:50,720 --> 00:25:54,640
offense does what it needs to do. But I think we're going to see some growing pains from

301
00:25:54,640 --> 00:26:00,880
this Buffalo bills defense. I think in particular, it's going to be a very start and stop type

302
00:26:00,880 --> 00:26:05,520
of first half for the bills. And we could be looking at a situation where the Cardinals

303
00:26:05,520 --> 00:26:11,120
are ahead at halftime. Keon Coleman has a key drop somewhere along the way. And all of

304
00:26:11,120 --> 00:26:14,860
a sudden, Bill's Twitter is lamenting that we didn't take Xavier worthy after his performance

305
00:26:14,860 --> 00:26:20,000
on Thursday night football. Those are all very real possibilities. But at the end, Josh

306
00:26:20,000 --> 00:26:24,880
Allen is simply better than the defense. The scheme and the pieces on this offense of roster

307
00:26:24,880 --> 00:26:29,560
are better than the defense. And I believe the bills will pull it out. So JJ, I'm also

308
00:26:29,560 --> 00:26:31,120
taking the over.

309
00:26:31,120 --> 00:26:37,080
There are some very intriguing games in week one. But I think this has the potential, particularly

310
00:26:37,080 --> 00:26:42,640
in that one PM block to be the shootout game, even over a game like Jacksonville versus Miami,

311
00:26:42,640 --> 00:26:47,760
just because of the way these two teams are so built to take advantage of the opposing

312
00:26:47,760 --> 00:26:54,080
defense's weaknesses. Yeah, absolutely. And I'm I'm I'm here for it. I think that, you

313
00:26:54,080 --> 00:27:01,120
know, seeing a 12 to nine field goal kicking fest is not something I'm looking forward to

314
00:27:01,120 --> 00:27:07,680
after waiting all offseason and preseason to watch Josh Allen sling it to these new weapons.

315
00:27:07,680 --> 00:27:12,160
All right, JJ, I got two props for you to kick off week one and they're both Josh Allen

316
00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:20,040
related. JJ, prop number one, over under one and a half picks for beloved Josh Allen. Now

317
00:27:20,040 --> 00:27:27,640
before you give me an answer, this is Josh Allen's cumulative stat line from weeks one,

318
00:27:27,640 --> 00:27:37,880
years 20 seasons 21 22 and 2023. Six total TDs, five passing and one rushing, five total

319
00:27:37,880 --> 00:27:41,720
picks, three of which we know came at the hands of the Jets last season. But again,

320
00:27:41,720 --> 00:27:46,160
as I mentioned before, two coming in that blowout win against LA. So even when they

321
00:27:46,160 --> 00:27:50,400
were humming it at their best in week one, Josh still came up with a few key mistakes.

322
00:27:50,400 --> 00:27:55,400
JJ is Josh throwing multiple picks this game for the second for the third what would be

323
00:27:55,400 --> 00:28:02,920
the third straight week one. No, and I'll tell you why I think that the departure of

324
00:28:02,920 --> 00:28:09,360
Stefan Diggs and Gabe Davis made the offseason a completely different paradigm for him to

325
00:28:09,360 --> 00:28:13,800
shift into. And I think he had to take football a little bit more seriously. He showed up

326
00:28:13,800 --> 00:28:20,080
to camp in better shape than he has the last two or three seasons. He spent more time with

327
00:28:20,080 --> 00:28:24,560
his key targets, Dalton, Cain and some of the other receivers in the offseason, you

328
00:28:24,560 --> 00:28:31,000
know, planning and setting up private workouts. So I think that he has maybe maybe he has

329
00:28:31,000 --> 00:28:35,560
one. I don't think he has more than one interception in this game.

330
00:28:35,560 --> 00:28:40,280
I too am going to take the under. I think he finally third third year is the charm.

331
00:28:40,280 --> 00:28:45,720
He bucks the trend of multiple picks in week one. And I think for a couple of reasons.

332
00:28:45,720 --> 00:28:51,480
I think we have seen the maturity in his game. We saw his turnover rate go down last year

333
00:28:51,480 --> 00:28:55,760
is turnover rate, you know, it's it's so weird because there's so many conflicting metrics.

334
00:28:55,760 --> 00:29:00,680
His total turnovers are high. Of course, he led the league in interceptions last year.

335
00:29:00,680 --> 00:29:06,560
The turnover worthy plays his turnover rate given how much he touches the ball and how

336
00:29:06,560 --> 00:29:10,920
much of an impact he has on this offense. I mean, they're at historic lows compared

337
00:29:10,920 --> 00:29:16,600
to some of the great QBs of all time like Tom Brady, Dan Marino, Joe Montana, guys who

338
00:29:16,600 --> 00:29:21,680
were adverse to throwing picks and adverse to turning the ball over. So I mean, listen,

339
00:29:21,680 --> 00:29:27,440
I know at the end of the year, when you see Josh Allen leading the league in interceptions,

340
00:29:27,440 --> 00:29:31,840
I know I know it can be kind of a bummer. But I also think it's a little bit misleading,

341
00:29:31,840 --> 00:29:36,840
especially given the play style. There's so many of the dominant QBs in the league go

342
00:29:36,840 --> 00:29:42,040
into go into each and every game with like Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, Joe Boreau

343
00:29:42,040 --> 00:29:46,720
to a lesser extent, he's about as close to risk adverse as we're probably going to see

344
00:29:46,720 --> 00:29:54,560
in this generation. But I think too, just to kind of add on to that point, people like

345
00:29:54,560 --> 00:29:59,720
to look at the interceptions and fumbles, but ignore the fact that he's but had the most

346
00:29:59,720 --> 00:30:03,360
touchdown in the league cumulatively every season for the past three years.

347
00:30:03,360 --> 00:30:09,080
It's wild. It's wild. It's high risk, high reward for sure. JJ Prop number two, will

348
00:30:09,080 --> 00:30:13,320
Josh throw for over 300 yards in this game? We both agree it's probably going to be a

349
00:30:13,320 --> 00:30:17,680
run heavy scheme, but we both agree to that there's going to be some opportunities to

350
00:30:17,680 --> 00:30:23,800
take some shots against the supposing Arizona Cardinals defense and JJ three years running.

351
00:30:23,800 --> 00:30:30,200
Josh Allen has not thrown a 300 for 300 yards in week one to 70 and 2021 against the Pittsburgh

352
00:30:30,200 --> 00:30:37,640
Steelers to 97 and that awesome beatdown of the LA Rams in 2022 and then to 36 and that

353
00:30:37,640 --> 00:30:44,320
absolutely devastating week one loss to the Jets last year. So JJ over under 299.5 yards

354
00:30:44,320 --> 00:30:45,320
for Josh Allen.

355
00:30:45,320 --> 00:30:51,240
I'm slapping that under. I don't think this is a big Josh Allen game. I think that Joe

356
00:30:51,240 --> 00:30:55,320
Brady, Josh, Josh Allen, as you mentioned, his maturity, you know, come into a new level

357
00:30:55,320 --> 00:31:03,120
in this season as he heads in. I think that he has eyes on the MVP and to get there, he

358
00:31:03,120 --> 00:31:08,320
needs to not throw interceptions and play good smart football and be the best quarterback

359
00:31:08,320 --> 00:31:13,440
on a team with some of the most wins in the league. And so to get the, because that vote

360
00:31:13,440 --> 00:31:17,800
is pretty much cast in week eight or nine always every season, like that's pretty much

361
00:31:17,800 --> 00:31:23,360
decided before that, you know, long before the playoffs come. And so I think that he's

362
00:31:23,360 --> 00:31:28,560
mindful of his statistics. I think Joe Brady is mindful with the scheme and the deficiencies,

363
00:31:28,560 --> 00:31:32,360
as you mentioned earlier in the pod, this Arizona Cardinals team can't stop anybody

364
00:31:32,360 --> 00:31:34,960
running the football. So I think they're going to try to keep it on the ground and they're

365
00:31:34,960 --> 00:31:37,280
going to attack in different ways.

366
00:31:37,280 --> 00:31:42,120
Yeah, I agree. I'm taking that under as well. I don't think they're going to, if they need

367
00:31:42,120 --> 00:31:46,720
Josh Allen to throw 300 yards in this game, something probably went horribly wrong. I

368
00:31:46,720 --> 00:31:50,080
would anticipate this is going to be a game plan that will look very similar to that Dallas

369
00:31:50,080 --> 00:31:54,400
game and even the first three quarters of that Kansas City Chiefs game, where you're

370
00:31:54,400 --> 00:31:58,880
going to see Josh spread the ball around, change things up and mix it in, but really

371
00:31:58,880 --> 00:32:01,640
they're going to want to dominate at the line of scrimmage and they're going to want to

372
00:32:01,640 --> 00:32:04,520
control the ball. They're going to want to run this thing.

373
00:32:04,520 --> 00:32:09,240
All right, JJ, that's all we got for this preview of the Buffalo Hills and the Arizona

374
00:32:09,240 --> 00:32:16,440
Cardinals. We are here, friends. We have made it. It is week one. We did a team. Congratulations.

375
00:32:16,440 --> 00:32:20,400
We made it to the season. We made it. And now it is time to ignore our loved ones and

376
00:32:20,400 --> 00:32:24,320
families for the next five months and totally let the Buffalo Bills dominate how we feel

377
00:32:24,320 --> 00:32:28,160
about ourselves day in and day out. For all of you listening at home, like, share and

378
00:32:28,160 --> 00:32:48,000
subscribe wherever you get your pods and as always, Go Bills.