Welcome back to the Buffalo Bread Podcast.
We are in preseason week three.
This is our post game analysis for the Buffalo Bills and Carolina Panthers, who played an
offensive slug fest that the Bills sadly lost.
But none of the Bills starters played in the game.
We take that for what it's worth.
Dan, where is your head at?
We've got two weeks to go till the season starts.
I would like for it to be two weeks from now is where my head is at.
But I'm glad that we have seen the Bills play their full preseason slate at this point.
Listen, preseason, there is not much to take away from it with regard to quality of starters
because let's be real starters aren't going to play a lot in the preseason.
Even this year with the Bills on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball, switching
so many different players into the starting rotation, we weren't going to see a lot.
No one's putting a lot on film in the preseason.
But what I took away from this preseason, I think more than anything else was I had
a vested interest, JJ, in the young guys.
And it's not just our draft picks.
It's the Joe Andreessen's, the Frank Gore Jr.'s, like some of these young UDFAs that
the Bills brought in, really seeing for me, I think, in a new light, how they plan on
developing their youth pipeline and their talent pipeline as the Josh Allen contract
becomes a bigger and bigger cap hit every single season.
We're so used to our high floor veteran laden rosters for Buffalo that honestly, the 53
Man really wasn't much of a competition for some of these young guys.
This season I found it really refreshing at times concerning, given the variants of play,
but ultimately really cool to see some of these young guys stand out and show out on
a game to game basis.
Yeah, I agree.
I think that the biggest thing, this is the real measure of whether or not a year over
year contender status, which is something that Brandon Bean and Sean McDermott both
touted when they entered the Bills in 2017, is we're about building a team that's going
to be in the hunt every single year for a championship.
That requires evolution.
That requires a team to really establish draft and develop and resign as a mantra and making
sure that they keep talented players, that they develop players beyond their draft status.
As you mentioned with UDFAs, they really have to get those players to play outside and above
their weight class in terms of the investment of resources, whether that's draft pick or
free agency dollars.
Really that's the measure of whether or not they're able to build this as a year over
year contender is can they get more for less of an investment every year.
And so far, I'm also pleased with that.
I think that in particular, some of the defensive pieces and the moneyball approach to wide
receiver both seem promising to me.
I have some concerns, I'm sure we'll talk about and get into in terms of certain position
groups.
But all in all, I think that it is a good, it's a good time to be a Bills fan anytime
Josh Allen is slinging it.
And it's an interest, it's more interesting, I think this year than in probably two or
three of the past years, because it's not the bills just dusting it off and going for
it again, because they got knocked down by the chiefs or the Bengals in the playoffs.
It is literally we're rebranding, rebuilding, regrowing this team from the core out.
And I'm very interested to see how that looks on field once week one comes.
Yeah, absolutely, dude.
So let's talk about the game in and of itself.
As you mentioned, many of the starters did not play, which was expected in the third
and final preseason game here.
And because of some of the, I would call it annoying injuries that the bills have faced
this preseason amongst some of the starting unit, particularly in the wide receiver room.
The defense, I don't know how much we should be concerned, but they did not look great.
And I think coming at it from that standpoint as we dive a little bit into who we want to
see on this roster, one of the things that stands out is because as we let in with this
pod, there are so many young guys competing for spots, there is not a lot of proven depth,
particularly on the defensive side of the ball this season.
And I think the bills are going to find themselves in a really interesting space because this
is a team that is used to playing a lot of close games as we'll get into probably later
on in the pod.
And I think the defense has been a big reason why so many of their games have been so close
in the regular season.
We know the scheme is going to be solid, like McDermott is going to scheme up something
with Babbage that is going to work for this unit.
This is the first time though I've really looked at a bill's depth chart and been like,
I have concerns about some of the guys on the defensive side of the ball and their ability
to execute.
Now, listen McDermott and Babbage, they're both great coaches.
It's harder for me to see it coming together, especially after that Panthers game where
granted Bryceon played and the Panthers first unit played for a little bit against our backups,
but Panthers are not a good football team.
Hey, that first unit is not a good football team.
I have concerns, particularly in the linebacker room.
So yeah, man, but the run game looked great and the second line and Aaron Kroemer we trust.
I rescind everything that I said earlier in the preseason about where that offensive
line is at, but real concerns on the defensive side of the ball.
So where do you want to start?
Offensive or defense?
Let's start with the defense.
I think that's the, as you've aptly pointed out, the side of the ball that has had the
most change and it's weird to say that given that the offense with digs and Davis departing,
there's almost nobody with targets from Josh Allen other than Khalil Shakir on that side.
But I really think that the defense has gone through a whole metamorphosis in the off season.
I am not as worried about the defense because I actually think one unit is substantially
better this year than last and again, assuming everybody the top four stay healthy and that's
defensive tackle.
I think that Ed Oliver is like absolutely going to be on fire this season and he in
his limited snaps in preseason looked excellent, but like he's picking up right where he left
off and I have taken another step and he is, you know, it's tough to see good play at that
position, but ask any analysts or anybody who looks at like metrics and breaks down
the play by play and they'll tell you that he's one of the best defensive tackles in
the entire league and I think that he looks a little bit even sharper this year.
And if you hair him together with the Quan Jones, the Joe Andreessen coming out party
against Pittsburgh was largely because he was playing behind the first unit defensive tackles
and they were gobbling up double teams.
They were not allowing guards or centers to scrape to the second level and so he faded
in the Panthers, but I think that was largely because of the backup defensive tackle play
and they were actually down down the roster a little bit.
It wasn't just that they weren't playing the top two is they weren't playing the top three
for most of that game.
And so there were a lot of people, Gable Steveson was getting a lot of snaps and that player
has no business on any football field considering he just started the sport this summer.
So give him a chance to get it under his belt for a bit and he's definitely not going to
be counted on by linebackers to keep them clean.
And so that's the unit I'm very bullish on is the defensive tackle unit.
I think that rotation is better than the bills I've seen in three years.
I think that Jordan Phillips was just a not player.
He was juice when he was here, but he left for Arizona and when he came back, I think
it was a shell.
He was barely impactful on any snaps.
And so I think they've definitely upgraded there.
I think that Greg Rousseau after completely eating the right tackle for the Steelers lunch
on multiple snaps.
He was in the game for eight snaps and he had five pressures and two sacks.
So I'm pretty happy about that.
And I can see, and that was a first round pick highly touted whose name I can't remember.
Yes, that's right.
And he was from Georgia and was drafted in 2023.
So Roger Jones just looked like a complete, he looked like a third stringer against Greg
Rousseau.
And I thought that there were some things I saw Greg Rousseau pull off that I haven't
seen from his game in terms of like speed to power one arm jab, the dip under like he
had the better repertoire of moves.
And I listened to some media availability with him where he was asked, do you go in with
a plan?
How do you feel like you have more moves?
And he basically was like, you don't really have more moves as a defensive lineman.
You just figure out the two or three that you're excellent at and then counters off
of each of them.
And that's what you have.
And I look at somebody like Von Miller, who's one of the best pass rushers in the history
of the NFL.
And he doesn't have more than three or four moves that he used.
He's just better at them than anyone else.
And I thought that was a stoop point.
And that tells me to come in to come fully together for Rousseau.
I think being healthy is going to be the biggest question.
Always with him.
Always with like foot injuries.
Yes.
The lower body stuff on those bigger guys is always a concern.
Always a concern for sustainability at the position.
No, I agree with you on the DTN.
Though I'm curious, what do you think of Carter at this point?
I, and listen, this is probably a very, this is a criticism you could probably make of
a lot of rookies and a lot of teams.
In college, I saw the processing speed.
The pass run recognition was really quick on film.
At the NFL level, at least in preseason, he's having a much harder time with that.
I think he makes the roster.
There's no reason why he shouldn't.
But does he give you pause at this point?
Because he's a third round pick.
They're not going to, they're not going to not roster him and he's going to play in
the rotation.
So do you have any concerns about Carter as a death piece on that line?
Yeah.
And especially because I think they're going to probably go heavy at defensive end, they're
probably going to only keep the core four to Juan Jones at Oliver Austin Johnson and
Dwayne Carter because of his draft status.
I am worried about him when he is in the game.
I think that we saw some flashes from him in some of his snaps in the preseason in terms
of his kind of burst and ability to press and rush the passer.
I was really worried about him and some run stops and run fits.
So we'll see.
I think he's got the thing about doing Carter is he is probably a slightly lesser profile
physically than you'd want for the NFL, but he's got so much ability and vision for it.
Like you mentioned in his college tape that it's, I think it's a matter of the game slowing
down for him and him getting more comfortable with the speed of the game, the size of the
players, the strength of everybody across from him.
And I think that might just take some time.
I'm not at all worried about him and its long term prospects because I think that what they
drafted for was an incredibly high character guy who has enough physical ability to be
good at it, but he's really more a penetration style three technique.
He's not going to, if he has to spell the Quad Jones, it's not going to go well.
I think I'd rather actually see, of course I'd rather see Austin Johnson because he's
more of that body type, but I would even rather see Eliankou or Deshaun Williams be elevated
for a game if they're on the practice squad to spell the Quad Jones.
If there was an issue there, then have DeWayne Carter play any snaps trying to hold the point
of attack at a one.
Yeah.
And that's that that in and of itself, you mentioned the Quad Jones.
We are hoping for a full season out of the guy.
Then I don't know that we're necessarily going to get.
So Austin Johnson becomes very important, not just as a rotational piece, but there could
be two or three games where we're relying on him to start.
And then you really do need Carter to play that kind of swing from the one to the three
if necessary, depending on what kind of depth you got on the practice unit.
I like your take on edge.
And I think they need to throw as many irons in that fire as humanly possible.
Because outside of Gregor So who looks like he's poised to take a leap.
I've not loved what I've seen out of AJ Epineza this preseason.
The pass rush ability looks like it is where it was towards the tail end of last season.
Dude, his run stopping ability, though, looks like it's taken a full step back.
And when you're playing opposite of Gregor So who I think it's not an overstatement
to say is probably a top 10, maybe even a top seven edge defender against the run.
You are going to it's going to be open season on AJ Epineza for opposing teams run games.
And it leaves a big hole to me on this defensive line.
If he can't figure out that aspect to his game and become a little bit more well rounded
there, and it's not something quite frankly that showed up on his film last season, though,
because he was in such a limited rotational spot, they were only putting him in a lot
of peer pass rush situations.
If they are not getting out of Von Miller what they need and Von Miller becomes your
situational guy, I have real concerns about AJ Epineza getting a majority of the snaps
opposite Rousseau.
Where are you at with that?
I have the same concerns because I observed, of course, the same thing of AJ Epineza just
not holding at the point of attack.
And that's been a problem for his game since he came into the league was that he gets swallowed
up or washed out a lot.
And I think that some of it was the variability of his body type because he was gaining weight
and losing weight and finding his flow.
Now he's been at the proper weight for two years now and that he's going to play at and
he seems to get washed out, get swallowed up, get easily moved off the spot with doubles
not holding the point of attack.
I think the only saving grace for AJ Epineza is that Christian Benford and Russell Douglas
are both excellent tackling corners.
And so he will likely have somebody on the outside behind him that can come up and minimize
the damage.
And that has been the case for a while.
I think that also applied to Christian Benford and Dorian Williams.
I think Dorian Williams especially is exceptional at playing forward and fitting the run.
And it's a matter of if AJ Epineza is not doing so poorly, at least throwing up all
over himself.
I think he'll probably keep that position starting across from Rousseau and leaving
Von Miller for situational situations, situational pass rush situations.
Dwayne Smoot I think is an excellent edge defender and may start eating into AJ Epineza's
snaps as the every down early down run defender if he starts to be a liability.
Yeah, JJ.
I think Smoot is going to factor into the defensive tackle rotation too.
He's got some of that inside-outside versatility that the Bills typically covet on their line.
But also I think too, depending on the health of that room, they may need him to do that.
I don't know.
They invested in Epineza, hoping that they were going to catch him in his prime.
And again, preseason is what it is.
That's guys kicking off for us, but I just haven't seen it.
Another interesting tidbit I think of the defensive side of the ball from the Panthers
game you mentioned.
Everybody's favorite son of Buffalo, Joe Adrezen, who did not show well in this game.
But again, a lot of it was probably the talent around him, as you mentioned.
Wasn't playing with the first unit defensive line.
We have seen how much quality of defensive line play in this Buffalo scheme makes a difference
for those linebackers.
I think it is nothing to me that would keep him from making the 53 man roster, especially
because the state of the linebacker room is what it is at this point.
But yeah, another area that I want to talk about, and this is one of my, has to be one
of my favorite preseason stories, I think so far out of Bill's camp to Quan Hardy, dude.
That guy, not only did he show great and improved decision making to me in the return game,
which ups his value as a special teamer.
I just I cannot get enough of this dude's aggression and attitude in decision making
when he is out there.
They have played him as much on the outside, I think is anything else.
Like he was billed out of the draft as someone who could potentially back up Taren Johnson
and maybe because we know Taren Johnson is eventually going to age out of that, the nickel
position and the nickel corner position.
And you have said there is probably a two to three year window where they will transition
him to safety and I totally agree.
So Hardy looks in early insurance policy against injury or that inevitable transition.
But this dude can play on the outside too, and his play, should he sustain it heading
into the regular season really changes my outlook on the cornerback room and depth on
the outside as a whole.
Because if they can use him and varying positions as a chess piece in the secondary, dude, if
they can find the right situations, peer passing situations and let his innate instincts and
decision making and aggression towards the ball, he literally feels like a dude, the
McDermott depending on the situation can go to and say, we need to turn over, go get
it.
And he feels like a dude who's going to get it.
And I thought he played a great game, both special teams and defensively against the
Panthers.
And to me, this is a dude I want on the 53 man.
He reminds me a little bit, not in kind of stature, but a little bit kind of that Dane
Jackson of a player who.
Oh, why are you doing this to him?
No, I'm doing this to him because we've seen him like show out and show up against second
and third string passing attacks.
I get it.
And I know that what you're saying, and I'm excited about him too, I don't mean to like
just throw water on the hot coals.
But I think he is a player who there is a reason that he fell as far as he did in the
draft.
He has some limitations, but he could all I think his floor is Dane Jackson, his ceiling
is Taran Johnson.
And you want that ceiling.
He's an all pro, right?
And so I think there's a possibility there.
I'm trying not to get too dang excited because I tend to get over like I was like, all right,
Joe Andreessen, new Matt Milano, let's go.
But yeah, I know I'm I love the day, Juan Hardy story because especially he is not the
body type that you can play outside corner in the NFL, but his tenacity forced their
hand and they're like, okay, get out there day, Juan, let's see you.
And right now he's on the depth chart is like the sick.
He's in the top six corners.
He's acting as the understudy for Christian Benford.
So not a bad place to be for him.
And I think too, I think that he's pretty much a lock because of the punt return ability.
Oh yeah.
And the improvement over the three preseason games in his decision making ability, letting
a I think he let a punt go at the five yard line against the Panthers.
And that was a really big improvement because of the Steelers.
I think he fair caught it three.
Yeah, he's fair caught something inside his own five.
Yep.
Yeah.
And he's moved to the tenacity.
He reminds me.
Do you remember Courtland Finnegan, the former Tennessee type who just got under everybody's
skin.
Yeah.
Teammates love to play with him, but opposing teams hated to play against him because he
played with so much ego and hubris and physicality.
That's who Hardy reminds me of.
Nice.
And I it's I thank you.
I feel like it is good comp.
But also too, it shows to me.
Not necessarily a change in scheme, but the bill's understanding by bringing in a guy
like Rizul Douglas, who is a turnover machine in and of himself, a guy like Kayer Elam,
who is as likely to get you a 15 yard defensive holding penalty or an INT.
And then a guy like Hardy, they are trying to prioritize not just keeping the lid on
offensives offense opposing offenses, but turning them over and giving Josh Allen and
this offense more opportunities to go to work.
I like the aggression in the secondary that I'm seeing, dude.
I really like it.
And I hope it leads to the thing that we have said the bills need to do more if they want
to be compete with some of these quick passing offenses.
And that's play more man.
And I feel great about the depth in the secondary that they can do that with some success this
year.
Yeah.
I think that for me, I don't have any other comments on the defense other than I don't
have it's almost like the linebacker situation last offseason in preseason.
I don't have a lot to say about the safeties this preseason because we know that Taylor
Rap is going to hold the starting spot.
He played barely any of the preseason games because of the injury situation out there.
They did not want one of their expected starters to go down like they have with all of their
other expected starters.
And so the question really becomes who's going to be lined up with him.
It's most likely DeMar Hamlin to start the season.
But I can see Cam Lewis, Cole Bishop or Mike Edwards pretty quickly replacing DeMar Hamlin
because we know about Hamlin's limitations.
You love the aggression.
You love the way he comes up and fills on run fits.
But he sometimes is a liability in coverage, especially with speedier receivers.
Yeah, I could see, you know, it'll be interesting to see who they roll out in the Arizona game.
You could see Hamlin getting the start, but Mike Edwards, who finally was able to get
off the injured list, graded out pretty well against the Panthers.
PFF again, take it with a grain of salt, but they graded him as a 79, one of the top five
five bills performers in that game in the preseason.
I see a world where Hamlin gets the start, but if a Marvin Harrison Jr. absolutely blows
by him on a go route, I can see Edwards in there pretty quickly.
Yeah.
And I trust Mike Edwards as a deep third freewheeling outfielder more than anybody else on that
roster right now.
Yeah, absolutely.
Absolutely.
All right, let's flip to the offensive side of the ball, JJ.
We and then we'll move on to some prediction shirt or go wrong, which I freaking love
doing.
It is the bread and butter of this podcast.
But let's talk about the offensive side of the ball.
We came into this game after that Steelers game with some concerns about the overall
depth of the offensive line unit, something that the bills we have noted voluntarily
sacrificed by getting rid of guys like Ryan Bates and Mitch Morse.
I think it looks like it's starting to coalesce.
Granted, they're playing against second and third unit guys for the Panthers defense and
the Panthers are a bad roster top to bottom.
But we got what we've been asking for, which is Alec Anderson shifting over to second unit
guard and Cedric van Pan van Pren Granger getting a second unit star at center.
That to me is the ideal depth and positioning that you want to see from your second unit
and the second you know, offensive line played really well in this game, particularly in
the run game.
What did you're the offensive line guy?
What did you see from the second unit that gave you hope?
I think that it's nice to see some of those players that we have come to learn about a
little bit show out Ryan Van Damark, Alec Anderson, Richard garage, who are really like
those are testaments to the thing we mentioned at the beginning of the pod about the Buffalo
bills, trying to get guys in here, develop them and then have those guys deliver a greater
value than any of the resources invested in them.
Ryan Van Damark, Alec Anderson, Richard garage, late round picks or undrafted rookie free
agents who were spent time on the practice squad developing and being trained under Aaron
Kroemer are all looking like enough capable enough on an NFL field to be able to maybe
not start at other teams, but definitely be a preferred backup.
And there are some teams in the league who would probably start them.
So that's an excellent place to be in when you have the bills starting offensive line
is one of the things that actually makes me very happy.
I know that you have some apprehension about how much they were willing to part with in
terms of depth, but I think it's showing that they knew what they had behind that depth.
So it made it a little bit redundant.
I don't know that I'd be any happier with Ryan Bates than Alec Anderson at this point.
I think that Alec Anderson is going to be a fine player.
I think Richard garage looks good.
I think Ryan Vandermark particularly and left tackle snaps is like everything you want.
And then there are some players like, you know, it was good to see Cedric Van Prenger
with a second unit gets some run at center.
I think that Tylen Graebel should have a roster spot and is it looks like an excellent
steal to pick up, you know, as a rookie because he's got such good athleticism.
And it's a matter of if he refines his technique, he'll be starting caliber in the NFL based
on his athletic profile.
So it's just a matter of learning, getting some of those some of the snaps and getting
some time under his belt in the systems to understand how to approach pass rush moves
and counters at this level.
But if he hits that the bills have got a guy who's who's starting caliber in him based
on his physical profile.
I saw what I saw was a unit of players who have been mixed and mashed together with other
in other units and other situations who showed the flexibility and variability of having
different players next to them.
But we're still able to have that preternatural sense of movement and space and where your
backup is and how you can help your guard or help your tackle with some leverage and
just the small nudge that reroutes a tackle or an end to set your brother next to you
up for a block.
That was the thing I saw that again, the quality of the opponent matters, the difficulty of
the team matters because the Panthers are terrible, but the things I saw were very favorable
for the year to show it was the small nuances of a team that looks like it has chemistry
on the line that we did not see in the first year, first week of the preseason.
Saw a little bit more with Pittsburgh and saw quite a bit more with all units in this
game, even times and snaps when they didn't do very well, there were things to take from
it that I thought looked like more advanced chemistry, which is what you want to see an
offensive line.
Absolutely, dude, I would love to, I'd love to talk about the running backs because I
think Evans and Gore Jr. absolutely showed out in this game, though both left with injuries.
The reality is the running back room on this 53 man feels pretty set at this point.
Evans may have some play as a return guy or special teams guy, but I really hope to see
one or both of those guys back on the practice squad, particularly Gore Jr.
He just seems to, he flows to the opening that the offensive line is providing for him
in such a easy, smooth, almost like professional way.
He looks really polished, which given the pedigree and the tutelage you assume he's
gotten from his father, the great Frank Gore, the Buffalo Bill great Frank Gore, you're
not surprised to see it, but that's somebody who I'd love to see them stash on the practice
squad and potentially get some run next season as a depth piece is that third or even backup
running back.
I really liked what I saw to him particularly, but I want to talk about QBs because listen,
we all know that, that if Josh Allen goes down, the season is done anyway.
But it's interesting what is happening in the QB room right now with Mitchell Trabisky's
injury, which right now we don't know the extent of.
And we, and there's guaranteed money in his contract.
Keith had hoped that the bills were in a position that a lot of teams are when they sign a great
QB to a long-term deal.
They start to draft rookies and develop them in their system.
You hope down the line, they become trade bait for a third round pick or whatever it
is.
But the bills went with a high priced veteran who probably doesn't win you many games because
we know what Mitchell Trabisky is.
He struggles in short area.
He holds onto the ball too long and he's a liability throwing it downfield.
But he's pretty good in the QB run game.
So all that being said, is there a guy not on the roster because they're handling the
QB room that they now need to go reach for who's going to get caught like a Mike White
who just got cut from Miami today, right?
Are the bills still unsettled in the QB room behind Josh Allen?
I don't like Mitch Trabisky as a player.
I think that he was inconsistent, inefficient, and ineffective the last time he was with
the bills two years ago.
I think he is worse now than he was then.
But I think Mitch Trabisky now, when healthy, still better than Kyle Allen, who I think
is so remarkably under skilled when it comes to his athletic tools.
His athletic tools, I think, is the problem, right?
Kyle Allen, he's in the NFL as a backup, he gets contracts, he must be good at play
intelligence and kind of an understanding systems and where the ball should go and timing
and pacing.
But the problem is his athletic skills just aren't there.
And so I think that I saying that I can still see the bills signing him if Mitch Trabisky
can't go week one, and he gets clipped from Pittsburgh.
I could also see the bill signing Keith's Kenan to come back because I think case Kenan
actually of the bills most recent backup quarterbacks was one who I like the most.
He had a decent showing in the preseason when he was with the bills.
And I think that he is a capable distributor of the football because of his pedigree is
long veteran status.
And so I think there's an opportunity there.
Honestly for me, because again, as you mentioned, seasons cooked if Josh Allen mixes any appra..
or misses any appreciable time, but I wouldn't mind Ben D'Nucci.
Give me a Ben D'Nucci if Mitch Trabisky because because I think here and here's why Ben D'Nucci
still has movement on his ceiling capable, I think because he's a younger player.
I think that when you were talking about case Kenan, Kyle Allen, Mitch Trabisky, there none
of them is going to get beyond the ceiling that we've seen in the NFL in the league.
Ben D'Nucci might.
He might still have some seasoning and some flavor and and he might have a little bit
longer to go on the slow cooker.
Those other guys, they're already cooked.
It's just wild to me how much guaranteed money we have to commit to our QB to because we failed
to draft we failed to draft like a capable rookie QB because again, no matter what happens
with Josh Allen, seasons like if Josh Allen is hurt, the season is over.
There is no one you're going to find on the veteran QB market that is going to elevate
you to where you need to be to make the playoffs.
Just not going to happen.
Joe Flacco is not walking through that door and you know what I mean.
So to me, it was a missed opportunity that honestly could have bought them some cap savings,
but whatever.
So Ben D'Nucci, the Buffalo Bread podcast is on board with you being our QB to we welcome
you as the prince who was promised from James Madison University.
Come on the show, Ben.
We'll get you on.
Tell the world your story.
That's right.
We want to hear all about you.
All right, sir.
So preseason is wrapped.
We now have a couple of weeks to set the table for for the Buffalo Bills upcoming 2024 regular
season and I want to kick that process off with some prediction sure to go wrong.
Limited predictions because we got to stretch this out over two episodes here before we
get into the Cardinals pregame.
But I want to talk about a couple of areas and listen, I did some digging and I did some
research and I've got three areas that I want to unpack with you that I think will be a
lot of fun to do.
One is the overall bills win total for the upcoming season.
Pretty pretty pretty mundane stuff, right?
Everyone's going to give a win total prediction at some point over the next couple of weeks,
particularly after the 53 man comes out.
But I think there's some interesting things showing out on the bills schedule with regard
to strength of schedule that I think should be factored in before the 53 man gets settled.
Next, I want to talk about Red Zone, dude.
The bills were really good in the Red Zone last season and they have added some really
fun weapons that Brady and Alan can mess around with.
I want to talk about who we think the number one Red Zone target for the bills is going
to be and my pick is likely going to surprise a lot of people.
And then finally, I want to talk about tempo of this offense.
This is a run first ball control heavy offense based on what we saw last season, weeks 11
through 18, when Joe Brady took over.
But I think there's going to be some fun wrinkles we're going to see, particularly from a matchup
standpoint with what the bills are going to be facing on their schedule in 2024.
So JJ, let's kick it off with win totals.
Let's start there.
All right.
So the betting over under right now from Vegas is 10 and a half for the Buffalo Bills.
I've seen some predictions from people I respect at the ringer and the athletic go
as high as 12.
I have also seen some people say this is going to be a season where the bills are effectively
punting and rebuilding the roster.
I've seen wind totals as low as seven.
JJ, where do you sit with the Buffalo Bills overall win total?
They are going to be playing the ninth hardest schedule based on projected wind totals this
season.
And they've got some interesting metrics that they're going to need to be meeting.
They're going to need to be facing when it comes to last season's defensive DVOA.
They're playing 11 of their 17 games against teams that were either a top 10 in passing
defense by DVOA or run defense by DVOA last season.
So they've got some interesting matchups down here.
Where are you with the Buffalo Bills win total?
I think they're going to be able to go 11 and six.
To prepare for the pod, I did the classic Bills fan exercise.
You look at the schedule and you like jot down W or L next to them as you go.
And I think that the reason that I'm pretty confident the Bills will get over 10 wins
is that they have a number of younger quarterbacks that they're playing early in the season.
And I think that's very good for the Bills is to play people in new situations younger,
like getting Marvin Harrison, Jr. week one of his NFL career, I think is a benefit because
I don't want to play that guy when he like gets his full when he knocks the rust off and
is like fully ready to go.
Even with the quarterback situation in Arizona and the rest of the offense in Arizona, I
don't want to I don't want to play that guy later.
The Miami Dolphins, their bills are going to play early and their defenses and shambles
with injuries until midseason.
And so there's multiple opportunities.
I think the Bills can come out to a hot start and really get things going.
And for that reason, I think they can go 11 and six.
And I think it's going to be a challenge.
I think there's going to be some games that the Bills give up that people are just like,
Oh, yeah, absolutely.
I would not sleep on Arizona week one.
Jonathan Gannon, we saw how much of a defensive mind he was that Arizona defense last season
was terrible.
And by every metric, they were terrible.
But when you look at their film, he was just doing some really weird funky stuff that I
think will not play well with Josh's pre snap reads.
They're running a lot of amoeba stuff that we'll get into when we get into the pre game
that I think if you've got four months to plan your first game against a squad, I think
could really throw a monkey wrench into things.
Miami, I'm with you.
I think Anthony Weaver is going to be a great DC for them, but they're on their third DC
in three seasons and everyone knows what Miami is at this point.
They're going to try to run fast.
I think Jacksonville has a chance to be a true dumpster fire this season.
Gabe Davis came to camp overweight has not been showing out does not look like he's
a really good fit for what Doug Peterson wants to do.
And Peterson may very well be the most overrated coach.
Baltimore Houston, New York Jets then becomes a really tough stretch run.
And dude, after that Tennessee game, I wouldn't sleep on Seattle.
Mike McDonald to me is a great defensive mind.
He is going to unlock that pass rush in Seattle and he's going to disguise where the pressure
is coming from in so many unique ways.
And that is also something that's been an Achilles heel for Josh Presnap is reading
where pressure is actually coming from.
So there are some trouble spots on here.
And because of that, I have for the bills at 10 and seven.
Now I still think 10 and seven wins the division potentially because again, we just don't know
what we're going to get with the Jets.
Like the Jets have the easiest first eight games of the season and then it gets markedly
harder for them towards the latter half of the season.
So as bills fans, we could be suffering through the Jets are foreign.
Oh, Aaron Rogers, the promises fulfilled, right?
We could be suffering through a lot of that in September and early October.
But ultimately, I don't know where the Jets are going to land because without a son retic,
I don't know where their past rush is coming from.
And that is a team that likes to stubbornly play for defensive down linemen like we do
and not blitz.
So it's going to be really interesting to see the Jets defense and how they make up
for that.
Then dude, that stretch run of Casey, San Fran, the Rams, Detroit, and then New England,
New Jersey, New England to finish out the season.
That's a rough stretch run, even with New England apparently punting on this year.
10 and seven dude feels like where it's at for me.
The game that I saw on the schedule as I was doing the little exercise, I was like, ooh,
maybe that one's going to be dicey at LA Rams week 14.
Yeah, there's going to be playoff seating on the line and the bills have to travel across
the country to the West Coast, which is always a challenge for East Coast teams.
And it's not to mention it's a 425 game.
So the bills will be playing at one, their body clocks wise, which is good.
But that loss at Pukinacua, like, I think that team is going to be solid this year.
Stafford's healthy.
Yeah, that's healthy.
That all is healthy.
It's going to be a wet and I think that the bills are going to have a challenge out there.
That's probably going to be another shootout, I would imagine.
So yeah.
All right, dude.
Next, I want to talk about Red Zone.
So the bills last season, second in EPA per play in the Red Zone, and they ranked fifth
in total Red Zone touchdowns, according to PFF.
They didn't do it with a lot of traditional running back carries.
James Cook was only carry the ball about a quarter of the time in the Red Zone, as opposed
to 70% of the time and all snaps before they hit the Red Zone last season.
They've got some fun new weapons for Josh to play with to Keon Coleman, Mack Hollins,
I think could be a factor.
And then for both fantasy value and real life value, we want to see Dalton Kincaid kind
of progress and add to the yak and add to the reception totals with some meaningful
touchdown production as well.
So he could be a factor there too.
But dude, there is a tried and true Red Zone weapon on this bill's offense that I think
is going to show through this season.
My prediction sure to go wrong is that Dawson Knox is going to lead the bills in Red Zone
TD receptions this year, despite all of the new additions, despite all of the growth that
we hope to see out of Dalton Kincaid.
Dawson Knox has never ranked lower than fifth in Red Zone targets throughout his career
with the Buffalo Bills.
And he has had seasons where he has tied or been the leader in Red Zone receptions for
the Buffalo Bills on three of the last four seasons.
That is quite something to consider when you factor in the fact that he's not been healthy
for all of those seasons either.
There is something about Dawson Knox in the Red Zone that gives Josh Allen a lot of comfort.
And I think you're going to see so many squads key in on Coleman, look for Ray Davis out
of the backfield, key in on Dalton Kincaid, Mack Hollins, they're going to look to shut
those guys down.
I think this is a season right for the return of Dawson's leak.
Dawson's leak in the Red Zone, my friend.
Dawson's leak.
Yes.
Pacey.
So it, no, I think that's a really astute point.
And it's funny because you were saying that and my prediction sure to go wrong about Red
Zone success was key on Coleman is going to lead the team in Red Zone TDs.
But it like stifled my point so hard when you were like, I think teams are going to,
and I was like, oh, no, there's telegraph, they're telegraphing it.
There are scripted so many preseason Red Zone stuff for him.
Yeah.
And they probably will.
I think that the thing that the bills are probably pretty bullish on and part of the
reason they made that pick of Keon, the first pick in the second round is that he's shown
in preseason in some regards, but also mostly in training camp that if he does have even
a half foot, half yard of separation from a competitor and Josh Allen puts the ball
on him, I think that's the piece Josh Allen putting the ball on him.
Mitch Trubisky putting the ball on him isn't going to get, get the answers.
But Josh Allen and him have already developed a pretty significant chemistry in terms of
Keon catching literally everything around him.
And more impressively, his body control and ability to get his feet in bounds.
I think that there's going to be some like just jump ball situations early in the season
and maybe throughout the season they develop into a very strong chemistry.
And so I see Keon Coleman as being the Red Zone target du jour and I'm excited for it.
But I, yeah, when you made that point about Dawson Knox, I was like, Oh yeah, no, he'll
definitely fly into the radar if they're in 12th personnel close to the goal line threatening
with the run.
There's Dawson's leak written all over that.
So it's going to be, it's going to be interesting.
I'm hoping for the sake of the bill's wide receiver room future that it's my guy, but
it might be your guy.
I know it's very reasonable that it's the guy who's been there all along that ends up
being benefiting most from all the new additions and new weapons they've added for the Red
Zone offense.
Yeah.
All right.
Last one JJ last prediction sure to go wrong and where we are again, this is an appetizer
for where we're going to be at over the next couple of weeks here.
We've got more wild stuff we're going to talk about in a bourbon bet that we also need to
decide on what it's going to be.
Though I think an early contender is the who's going to lead the team in Red Zone receptions.
But I want to talk about tempo.
The Buffalo bills last season JJ from weeks 11 to 18 had the second lowest pack rate in
the league and the highest traditional running back run rate in the NFL.
Wild to think about when you've got Josh Allen under center, but we saw the benefits play
out in the long run.
They didn't see a whole lot of a lot of regression in EPA per play from the switch from Dorsey
over to Brady and we actually saw time of possession go up.
The bills finished second in the league behind only Cleveland in time of possession last
year and turnovers go way, way down as well.
So a lot of people are heading into the season JJ and they're expecting the bills to be built
around the run.
And I think there is a lot of credibility to that idea.
And I think rationally, it makes a lot of sense.
But on a matchup to match up basis, and again, I look at that Seattle game, I also key in
on the Houston game as well, the Jets game teams that we know are going to want to rotate
in defensive line pieces.
Tempo could be key in really playing a war of attrition against some of these defensive
lines that love to rotate seven or eight deep and really mitigate some of that last season.
JJ, the bills only played tempo no huddle on 11% of their snaps.
But Josh Allen's passer rating went from a 93.2 to a 104.9.
And we've seen it in real time with the eye test.
Josh just looks way more comfortable slaying it and a two minute offense.
You know what I mean?
Not that they're going to run it all the time.
But I think situationally to keep some of these deeper defensive lines off of Josh,
I could see up tempo being a factor and being mixed in to Brady's playbook.
So JJ, my prediction sure to go wrong, the bills are going to effectively double their
tempo rate.
They're going to go from 11% in my opinion to about 20% of the time next season again,
based purely on a matchup by matchup basis.
This isn't going to be the K-Gun offense that we've all been calling for to be revitalized
with Josh Allen.
But I think we're going to see a lot more tempo in certain game matchups.
JJ, what do you think about that?
Dan, I will take your 20% and I will raise you because I think the Buffalo Bills are
going to unveil the J-Gun offense.
Dude.
And with a 30% up tempo rate, I think they're going to go no head all for portions of games
because I'm going to just go counter anti NFL media that thinks this is going to be
a plodding three yards in the cloud of dust rushing offense with occasional play action.
Now I think they're going to come out and be slinging it.
I think that the level of vanilla-ness to the lack of flavor to the Joe Brady offense
in the preseason is going to catch a lot of people by surprise in week one, week two,
especially once we get into the AFC East matchups in the first four weeks.
I think you're going to see some things that the league's not ready for.
I'm excited for it.
Wow.
I love it.
This feels a little bit like wish casting, but I really love where you're at.
We've just, and we love Josh, right?
But like he is at his absolute worst when he is sucking up the play clock, doing all
these checks, trying to figure out where the pressure is coming from, realigning his wide
receivers.
When he's doing and mired and muck and doing all those things, the offense is performing
at its absolute lowest point.
When he gets out there, makes a couple of reads, sends some guys to go play.
His decision making is quicker.
His turnovers are lower.
It is absolutely not night and day, but you see the difference in real time.
And there's a reason why Josh is so good in limited fourth quarter situations where time
is running down the two minute drill.
That's where Josh has made his hay and really made his reputation as a QB.
It makes sense putting more of those elements into real game situations.
So I love where you're at.
30 feels really high, but man.
30 would, I would go sign.
Yeah, but 30 would set an NFL record over the last 12 seasons.
I know, right?
I understand how obscene that would be.
It would be wild.
Chip Kelly is listening to the spot.
What?
What I'm saying is it would be absolutely groundbreakingly and backbreakingly aggressive
because of the amount of time of possession.
If the bills go three on out with that method would just be so horrendously skewed towards
the opponent's favor.
It would be so bad.
I just don't think McDermott would allow it.
But yeah, fun stuff.
And again, just a taste of those for you, for those of you listening at home and where
we're going to be at next week as we really dig into the 53 man roster and talk about
what it means for the bill season as we're building up to 2024.
But until then, thank you for listening as always.
Like share and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts, YouTube coming to you soon,
Apple and Spotify.
And as always, go bills.
What?
You