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Welcome back to the Buffalo Bread Podcast.

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We are in preseason week three.

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This is our post game analysis for the Buffalo Bills and Carolina Panthers, who played an

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offensive slug fest that the Bills sadly lost.

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But none of the Bills starters played in the game.

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We take that for what it's worth.

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Dan, where is your head at?

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We've got two weeks to go till the season starts.

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I would like for it to be two weeks from now is where my head is at.

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But I'm glad that we have seen the Bills play their full preseason slate at this point.

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Listen, preseason, there is not much to take away from it with regard to quality of starters

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because let's be real starters aren't going to play a lot in the preseason.

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Even this year with the Bills on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball, switching

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so many different players into the starting rotation, we weren't going to see a lot.

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No one's putting a lot on film in the preseason.

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But what I took away from this preseason, I think more than anything else was I had

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a vested interest, JJ, in the young guys.

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And it's not just our draft picks.

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It's the Joe Andreessen's, the Frank Gore Jr.'s, like some of these young UDFAs that

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the Bills brought in, really seeing for me, I think, in a new light, how they plan on

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developing their youth pipeline and their talent pipeline as the Josh Allen contract

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becomes a bigger and bigger cap hit every single season.

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We're so used to our high floor veteran laden rosters for Buffalo that honestly, the 53

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Man really wasn't much of a competition for some of these young guys.

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This season I found it really refreshing at times concerning, given the variants of play,

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but ultimately really cool to see some of these young guys stand out and show out on

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a game to game basis.

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Yeah, I agree.

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I think that the biggest thing, this is the real measure of whether or not a year over

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year contender status, which is something that Brandon Bean and Sean McDermott both

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touted when they entered the Bills in 2017, is we're about building a team that's going

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to be in the hunt every single year for a championship.

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That requires evolution.

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That requires a team to really establish draft and develop and resign as a mantra and making

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sure that they keep talented players, that they develop players beyond their draft status.

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As you mentioned with UDFAs, they really have to get those players to play outside and above

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their weight class in terms of the investment of resources, whether that's draft pick or

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free agency dollars.

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Really that's the measure of whether or not they're able to build this as a year over

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year contender is can they get more for less of an investment every year.

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And so far, I'm also pleased with that.

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I think that in particular, some of the defensive pieces and the moneyball approach to wide

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receiver both seem promising to me.

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I have some concerns, I'm sure we'll talk about and get into in terms of certain position

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groups.

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But all in all, I think that it is a good, it's a good time to be a Bills fan anytime

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Josh Allen is slinging it.

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And it's an interest, it's more interesting, I think this year than in probably two or

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three of the past years, because it's not the bills just dusting it off and going for

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it again, because they got knocked down by the chiefs or the Bengals in the playoffs.

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It is literally we're rebranding, rebuilding, regrowing this team from the core out.

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And I'm very interested to see how that looks on field once week one comes.

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Yeah, absolutely, dude.

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So let's talk about the game in and of itself.

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As you mentioned, many of the starters did not play, which was expected in the third

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and final preseason game here.

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And because of some of the, I would call it annoying injuries that the bills have faced

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this preseason amongst some of the starting unit, particularly in the wide receiver room.

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The defense, I don't know how much we should be concerned, but they did not look great.

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And I think coming at it from that standpoint as we dive a little bit into who we want to

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see on this roster, one of the things that stands out is because as we let in with this

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pod, there are so many young guys competing for spots, there is not a lot of proven depth,

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particularly on the defensive side of the ball this season.

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And I think the bills are going to find themselves in a really interesting space because this

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is a team that is used to playing a lot of close games as we'll get into probably later

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on in the pod.

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And I think the defense has been a big reason why so many of their games have been so close

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in the regular season.

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We know the scheme is going to be solid, like McDermott is going to scheme up something

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with Babbage that is going to work for this unit.

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This is the first time though I've really looked at a bill's depth chart and been like,

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I have concerns about some of the guys on the defensive side of the ball and their ability

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to execute.

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Now, listen McDermott and Babbage, they're both great coaches.

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It's harder for me to see it coming together, especially after that Panthers game where

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granted Bryceon played and the Panthers first unit played for a little bit against our backups,

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but Panthers are not a good football team.

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Hey, that first unit is not a good football team.

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I have concerns, particularly in the linebacker room.

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So yeah, man, but the run game looked great and the second line and Aaron Kroemer we trust.

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I rescind everything that I said earlier in the preseason about where that offensive

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line is at, but real concerns on the defensive side of the ball.

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So where do you want to start?

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Offensive or defense?

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Let's start with the defense.

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I think that's the, as you've aptly pointed out, the side of the ball that has had the

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most change and it's weird to say that given that the offense with digs and Davis departing,

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there's almost nobody with targets from Josh Allen other than Khalil Shakir on that side.

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But I really think that the defense has gone through a whole metamorphosis in the off season.

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I am not as worried about the defense because I actually think one unit is substantially

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better this year than last and again, assuming everybody the top four stay healthy and that's

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defensive tackle.

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I think that Ed Oliver is like absolutely going to be on fire this season and he in

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his limited snaps in preseason looked excellent, but like he's picking up right where he left

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off and I have taken another step and he is, you know, it's tough to see good play at that

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position, but ask any analysts or anybody who looks at like metrics and breaks down

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the play by play and they'll tell you that he's one of the best defensive tackles in

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the entire league and I think that he looks a little bit even sharper this year.

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And if you hair him together with the Quan Jones, the Joe Andreessen coming out party

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against Pittsburgh was largely because he was playing behind the first unit defensive tackles

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and they were gobbling up double teams.

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They were not allowing guards or centers to scrape to the second level and so he faded

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in the Panthers, but I think that was largely because of the backup defensive tackle play

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and they were actually down down the roster a little bit.

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It wasn't just that they weren't playing the top two is they weren't playing the top three

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for most of that game.

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And so there were a lot of people, Gable Steveson was getting a lot of snaps and that player

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has no business on any football field considering he just started the sport this summer.

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So give him a chance to get it under his belt for a bit and he's definitely not going to

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be counted on by linebackers to keep them clean.

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And so that's the unit I'm very bullish on is the defensive tackle unit.

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I think that rotation is better than the bills I've seen in three years.

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I think that Jordan Phillips was just a not player.

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He was juice when he was here, but he left for Arizona and when he came back, I think

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it was a shell.

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He was barely impactful on any snaps.

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And so I think they've definitely upgraded there.

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I think that Greg Rousseau after completely eating the right tackle for the Steelers lunch

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on multiple snaps.

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He was in the game for eight snaps and he had five pressures and two sacks.

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So I'm pretty happy about that.

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And I can see, and that was a first round pick highly touted whose name I can't remember.

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Yes, that's right.

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And he was from Georgia and was drafted in 2023.

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So Roger Jones just looked like a complete, he looked like a third stringer against Greg

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Rousseau.

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And I thought that there were some things I saw Greg Rousseau pull off that I haven't

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seen from his game in terms of like speed to power one arm jab, the dip under like he

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had the better repertoire of moves.

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And I listened to some media availability with him where he was asked, do you go in with

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a plan?

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How do you feel like you have more moves?

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And he basically was like, you don't really have more moves as a defensive lineman.

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You just figure out the two or three that you're excellent at and then counters off

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of each of them.

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And that's what you have.

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And I look at somebody like Von Miller, who's one of the best pass rushers in the history

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of the NFL.

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And he doesn't have more than three or four moves that he used.

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He's just better at them than anyone else.

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And I thought that was a stoop point.

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And that tells me to come in to come fully together for Rousseau.

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I think being healthy is going to be the biggest question.

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Always with him.

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Always with him.

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Always with like foot injuries.

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Yes.

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The lower body stuff on those bigger guys is always a concern.

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Always a concern for sustainability at the position.

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No, I agree with you on the DTN.

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Though I'm curious, what do you think of Carter at this point?

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I, and listen, this is probably a very, this is a criticism you could probably make of

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a lot of rookies and a lot of teams.

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In college, I saw the processing speed.

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The pass run recognition was really quick on film.

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At the NFL level, at least in preseason, he's having a much harder time with that.

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I think he makes the roster.

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There's no reason why he shouldn't.

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But does he give you pause at this point?

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Because he's a third round pick.

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They're not going to, they're not going to not roster him and he's going to play in

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the rotation.

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So do you have any concerns about Carter as a death piece on that line?

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Yeah.

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And especially because I think they're going to probably go heavy at defensive end, they're

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probably going to only keep the core four to Juan Jones at Oliver Austin Johnson and

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Dwayne Carter because of his draft status.

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I am worried about him when he is in the game.

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I think that we saw some flashes from him in some of his snaps in the preseason in terms

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of his kind of burst and ability to press and rush the passer.

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I was really worried about him and some run stops and run fits.

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So we'll see.

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I think he's got the thing about doing Carter is he is probably a slightly lesser profile

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physically than you'd want for the NFL, but he's got so much ability and vision for it.

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Like you mentioned in his college tape that it's, I think it's a matter of the game slowing

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down for him and him getting more comfortable with the speed of the game, the size of the

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players, the strength of everybody across from him.

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And I think that might just take some time.

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I'm not at all worried about him and its long term prospects because I think that what they

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drafted for was an incredibly high character guy who has enough physical ability to be

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good at it, but he's really more a penetration style three technique.

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He's not going to, if he has to spell the Quad Jones, it's not going to go well.

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I think I'd rather actually see, of course I'd rather see Austin Johnson because he's

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more of that body type, but I would even rather see Eliankou or Deshaun Williams be elevated

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for a game if they're on the practice squad to spell the Quad Jones.

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If there was an issue there, then have DeWayne Carter play any snaps trying to hold the point

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of attack at a one.

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Yeah.

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And that's that that in and of itself, you mentioned the Quad Jones.

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We are hoping for a full season out of the guy.

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Then I don't know that we're necessarily going to get.

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So Austin Johnson becomes very important, not just as a rotational piece, but there could

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be two or three games where we're relying on him to start.

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And then you really do need Carter to play that kind of swing from the one to the three

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if necessary, depending on what kind of depth you got on the practice unit.

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I like your take on edge.

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And I think they need to throw as many irons in that fire as humanly possible.

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Because outside of Gregor So who looks like he's poised to take a leap.

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I've not loved what I've seen out of AJ Epineza this preseason.

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The pass rush ability looks like it is where it was towards the tail end of last season.

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Dude, his run stopping ability, though, looks like it's taken a full step back.

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And when you're playing opposite of Gregor So who I think it's not an overstatement

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to say is probably a top 10, maybe even a top seven edge defender against the run.

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You are going to it's going to be open season on AJ Epineza for opposing teams run games.

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And it leaves a big hole to me on this defensive line.

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If he can't figure out that aspect to his game and become a little bit more well rounded

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there, and it's not something quite frankly that showed up on his film last season, though,

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because he was in such a limited rotational spot, they were only putting him in a lot

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of peer pass rush situations.

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If they are not getting out of Von Miller what they need and Von Miller becomes your

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situational guy, I have real concerns about AJ Epineza getting a majority of the snaps

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opposite Rousseau.

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Where are you at with that?

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I have the same concerns because I observed, of course, the same thing of AJ Epineza just

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not holding at the point of attack.

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And that's been a problem for his game since he came into the league was that he gets swallowed

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up or washed out a lot.

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And I think that some of it was the variability of his body type because he was gaining weight

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and losing weight and finding his flow.

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Now he's been at the proper weight for two years now and that he's going to play at and

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he seems to get washed out, get swallowed up, get easily moved off the spot with doubles

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not holding the point of attack.

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I think the only saving grace for AJ Epineza is that Christian Benford and Russell Douglas

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are both excellent tackling corners.

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And so he will likely have somebody on the outside behind him that can come up and minimize

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the damage.

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And that has been the case for a while.

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I think that also applied to Christian Benford and Dorian Williams.

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I think Dorian Williams especially is exceptional at playing forward and fitting the run.

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And it's a matter of if AJ Epineza is not doing so poorly, at least throwing up all

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over himself.

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I think he'll probably keep that position starting across from Rousseau and leaving

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Von Miller for situational situations, situational pass rush situations.

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Dwayne Smoot I think is an excellent edge defender and may start eating into AJ Epineza's

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snaps as the every down early down run defender if he starts to be a liability.

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Yeah, JJ.

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I think Smoot is going to factor into the defensive tackle rotation too.

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He's got some of that inside-outside versatility that the Bills typically covet on their line.

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But also I think too, depending on the health of that room, they may need him to do that.

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I don't know.

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They invested in Epineza, hoping that they were going to catch him in his prime.

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And again, preseason is what it is.

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That's guys kicking off for us, but I just haven't seen it.

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Another interesting tidbit I think of the defensive side of the ball from the Panthers

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game you mentioned.

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Everybody's favorite son of Buffalo, Joe Adrezen, who did not show well in this game.

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But again, a lot of it was probably the talent around him, as you mentioned.

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Wasn't playing with the first unit defensive line.

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We have seen how much quality of defensive line play in this Buffalo scheme makes a difference

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for those linebackers.

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I think it is nothing to me that would keep him from making the 53 man roster, especially

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because the state of the linebacker room is what it is at this point.

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But yeah, another area that I want to talk about, and this is one of my, has to be one

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of my favorite preseason stories, I think so far out of Bill's camp to Quan Hardy, dude.

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That guy, not only did he show great and improved decision making to me in the return game,

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which ups his value as a special teamer.

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I just I cannot get enough of this dude's aggression and attitude in decision making

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when he is out there.

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They have played him as much on the outside, I think is anything else.

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Like he was billed out of the draft as someone who could potentially back up Taren Johnson

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and maybe because we know Taren Johnson is eventually going to age out of that, the nickel

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position and the nickel corner position.

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And you have said there is probably a two to three year window where they will transition

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him to safety and I totally agree.

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So Hardy looks in early insurance policy against injury or that inevitable transition.

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But this dude can play on the outside too, and his play, should he sustain it heading

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into the regular season really changes my outlook on the cornerback room and depth on

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the outside as a whole.

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Because if they can use him and varying positions as a chess piece in the secondary, dude, if

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they can find the right situations, peer passing situations and let his innate instincts and

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decision making and aggression towards the ball, he literally feels like a dude, the

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McDermott depending on the situation can go to and say, we need to turn over, go get

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it.

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And he feels like a dude who's going to get it.

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And I thought he played a great game, both special teams and defensively against the

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Panthers.

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And to me, this is a dude I want on the 53 man.

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He reminds me a little bit, not in kind of stature, but a little bit kind of that Dane

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Jackson of a player who.

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Oh, why are you doing this to him?

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No, I'm doing this to him because we've seen him like show out and show up against second

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and third string passing attacks.

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I get it.

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And I know that what you're saying, and I'm excited about him too, I don't mean to like

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just throw water on the hot coals.

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But I think he is a player who there is a reason that he fell as far as he did in the

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draft.

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He has some limitations, but he could all I think his floor is Dane Jackson, his ceiling

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is Taran Johnson.

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And you want that ceiling.

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He's an all pro, right?

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And so I think there's a possibility there.

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I'm trying not to get too dang excited because I tend to get over like I was like, all right,

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Joe Andreessen, new Matt Milano, let's go.

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But yeah, I know I'm I love the day, Juan Hardy story because especially he is not the

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body type that you can play outside corner in the NFL, but his tenacity forced their

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hand and they're like, okay, get out there day, Juan, let's see you.

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And right now he's on the depth chart is like the sick.

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He's in the top six corners.

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He's acting as the understudy for Christian Benford.

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So not a bad place to be for him.

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And I think too, I think that he's pretty much a lock because of the punt return ability.

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Oh yeah.

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And the improvement over the three preseason games in his decision making ability, letting

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a I think he let a punt go at the five yard line against the Panthers.

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And that was a really big improvement because of the Steelers.

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I think he fair caught it three.

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Yeah, he's fair caught something inside his own five.

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Yep.

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Yeah.

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And he's moved to the tenacity.

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He reminds me.

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Do you remember Courtland Finnegan, the former Tennessee type who just got under everybody's

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skin.

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Yeah.

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Teammates love to play with him, but opposing teams hated to play against him because he

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played with so much ego and hubris and physicality.

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That's who Hardy reminds me of.

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Nice.

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And I it's I thank you.

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I feel like it is good comp.

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But also too, it shows to me.

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Not necessarily a change in scheme, but the bill's understanding by bringing in a guy

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like Rizul Douglas, who is a turnover machine in and of himself, a guy like Kayer Elam,

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who is as likely to get you a 15 yard defensive holding penalty or an INT.

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And then a guy like Hardy, they are trying to prioritize not just keeping the lid on

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offensives offense opposing offenses, but turning them over and giving Josh Allen and

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this offense more opportunities to go to work.

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I like the aggression in the secondary that I'm seeing, dude.

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I really like it.

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And I hope it leads to the thing that we have said the bills need to do more if they want

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to be compete with some of these quick passing offenses.

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And that's play more man.

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And I feel great about the depth in the secondary that they can do that with some success this

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year.

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Yeah.

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I think that for me, I don't have any other comments on the defense other than I don't

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have it's almost like the linebacker situation last offseason in preseason.

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I don't have a lot to say about the safeties this preseason because we know that Taylor

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Rap is going to hold the starting spot.

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He played barely any of the preseason games because of the injury situation out there.

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They did not want one of their expected starters to go down like they have with all of their

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other expected starters.

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And so the question really becomes who's going to be lined up with him.

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It's most likely DeMar Hamlin to start the season.

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But I can see Cam Lewis, Cole Bishop or Mike Edwards pretty quickly replacing DeMar Hamlin

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because we know about Hamlin's limitations.

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You love the aggression.

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You love the way he comes up and fills on run fits.

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But he sometimes is a liability in coverage, especially with speedier receivers.

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Yeah, I could see, you know, it'll be interesting to see who they roll out in the Arizona game.

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You could see Hamlin getting the start, but Mike Edwards, who finally was able to get

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off the injured list, graded out pretty well against the Panthers.

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PFF again, take it with a grain of salt, but they graded him as a 79, one of the top five

355
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five bills performers in that game in the preseason.

356
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I see a world where Hamlin gets the start, but if a Marvin Harrison Jr. absolutely blows

357
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by him on a go route, I can see Edwards in there pretty quickly.

358
00:22:01,440 --> 00:22:02,440
Yeah.

359
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And I trust Mike Edwards as a deep third freewheeling outfielder more than anybody else on that

360
00:22:08,120 --> 00:22:09,120
roster right now.

361
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Yeah, absolutely.

362
00:22:10,120 --> 00:22:11,120
Absolutely.

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00:22:11,120 --> 00:22:13,560
All right, let's flip to the offensive side of the ball, JJ.

364
00:22:13,560 --> 00:22:18,240
We and then we'll move on to some prediction shirt or go wrong, which I freaking love

365
00:22:18,240 --> 00:22:19,240
doing.

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It is the bread and butter of this podcast.

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But let's talk about the offensive side of the ball.

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We came into this game after that Steelers game with some concerns about the overall

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depth of the offensive line unit, something that the bills we have noted voluntarily

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00:22:33,360 --> 00:22:38,160
sacrificed by getting rid of guys like Ryan Bates and Mitch Morse.

371
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I think it looks like it's starting to coalesce.

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Granted, they're playing against second and third unit guys for the Panthers defense and

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the Panthers are a bad roster top to bottom.

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But we got what we've been asking for, which is Alec Anderson shifting over to second unit

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guard and Cedric van Pan van Pren Granger getting a second unit star at center.

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That to me is the ideal depth and positioning that you want to see from your second unit

377
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and the second you know, offensive line played really well in this game, particularly in

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the run game.

379
00:23:14,640 --> 00:23:16,520
What did you're the offensive line guy?

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00:23:16,520 --> 00:23:19,280
What did you see from the second unit that gave you hope?

381
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I think that it's nice to see some of those players that we have come to learn about a

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00:23:25,560 --> 00:23:32,520
little bit show out Ryan Van Damark, Alec Anderson, Richard garage, who are really like

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00:23:32,520 --> 00:23:36,680
those are testaments to the thing we mentioned at the beginning of the pod about the Buffalo

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00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:44,120
bills, trying to get guys in here, develop them and then have those guys deliver a greater

385
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value than any of the resources invested in them.

386
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Ryan Van Damark, Alec Anderson, Richard garage, late round picks or undrafted rookie free

387
00:23:52,480 --> 00:23:58,320
agents who were spent time on the practice squad developing and being trained under Aaron

388
00:23:58,320 --> 00:24:07,960
Kroemer are all looking like enough capable enough on an NFL field to be able to maybe

389
00:24:07,960 --> 00:24:12,540
not start at other teams, but definitely be a preferred backup.

390
00:24:12,540 --> 00:24:15,320
And there are some teams in the league who would probably start them.

391
00:24:15,320 --> 00:24:20,920
So that's an excellent place to be in when you have the bills starting offensive line

392
00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:23,320
is one of the things that actually makes me very happy.

393
00:24:23,320 --> 00:24:26,920
I know that you have some apprehension about how much they were willing to part with in

394
00:24:26,920 --> 00:24:32,960
terms of depth, but I think it's showing that they knew what they had behind that depth.

395
00:24:32,960 --> 00:24:34,600
So it made it a little bit redundant.

396
00:24:34,600 --> 00:24:40,440
I don't know that I'd be any happier with Ryan Bates than Alec Anderson at this point.

397
00:24:40,440 --> 00:24:43,600
I think that Alec Anderson is going to be a fine player.

398
00:24:43,600 --> 00:24:45,000
I think Richard garage looks good.

399
00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:50,280
I think Ryan Vandermark particularly and left tackle snaps is like everything you want.

400
00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:54,640
And then there are some players like, you know, it was good to see Cedric Van Prenger

401
00:24:54,640 --> 00:24:57,680
with a second unit gets some run at center.

402
00:24:57,680 --> 00:25:02,960
I think that Tylen Graebel should have a roster spot and is it looks like an excellent

403
00:25:02,960 --> 00:25:09,920
steal to pick up, you know, as a rookie because he's got such good athleticism.

404
00:25:09,920 --> 00:25:14,520
And it's a matter of if he refines his technique, he'll be starting caliber in the NFL based

405
00:25:14,520 --> 00:25:15,880
on his athletic profile.

406
00:25:15,880 --> 00:25:19,080
So it's just a matter of learning, getting some of those some of the snaps and getting

407
00:25:19,080 --> 00:25:24,440
some time under his belt in the systems to understand how to approach pass rush moves

408
00:25:24,440 --> 00:25:26,560
and counters at this level.

409
00:25:26,560 --> 00:25:31,040
But if he hits that the bills have got a guy who's who's starting caliber in him based

410
00:25:31,040 --> 00:25:32,160
on his physical profile.

411
00:25:32,160 --> 00:25:39,040
I saw what I saw was a unit of players who have been mixed and mashed together with other

412
00:25:39,040 --> 00:25:43,640
in other units and other situations who showed the flexibility and variability of having

413
00:25:43,640 --> 00:25:45,920
different players next to them.

414
00:25:45,920 --> 00:25:51,800
But we're still able to have that preternatural sense of movement and space and where your

415
00:25:51,800 --> 00:25:57,560
backup is and how you can help your guard or help your tackle with some leverage and

416
00:25:57,560 --> 00:26:03,320
just the small nudge that reroutes a tackle or an end to set your brother next to you

417
00:26:03,320 --> 00:26:04,920
up for a block.

418
00:26:04,920 --> 00:26:10,640
That was the thing I saw that again, the quality of the opponent matters, the difficulty of

419
00:26:10,640 --> 00:26:15,560
the team matters because the Panthers are terrible, but the things I saw were very favorable

420
00:26:15,560 --> 00:26:21,160
for the year to show it was the small nuances of a team that looks like it has chemistry

421
00:26:21,160 --> 00:26:25,880
on the line that we did not see in the first year, first week of the preseason.

422
00:26:25,880 --> 00:26:30,000
Saw a little bit more with Pittsburgh and saw quite a bit more with all units in this

423
00:26:30,000 --> 00:26:34,080
game, even times and snaps when they didn't do very well, there were things to take from

424
00:26:34,080 --> 00:26:37,760
it that I thought looked like more advanced chemistry, which is what you want to see an

425
00:26:37,760 --> 00:26:38,920
offensive line.

426
00:26:38,920 --> 00:26:43,760
Absolutely, dude, I would love to, I'd love to talk about the running backs because I

427
00:26:43,760 --> 00:26:49,720
think Evans and Gore Jr. absolutely showed out in this game, though both left with injuries.

428
00:26:49,720 --> 00:26:55,880
The reality is the running back room on this 53 man feels pretty set at this point.

429
00:26:55,880 --> 00:27:01,280
Evans may have some play as a return guy or special teams guy, but I really hope to see

430
00:27:01,280 --> 00:27:06,040
one or both of those guys back on the practice squad, particularly Gore Jr.

431
00:27:06,040 --> 00:27:11,840
He just seems to, he flows to the opening that the offensive line is providing for him

432
00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:16,280
in such a easy, smooth, almost like professional way.

433
00:27:16,280 --> 00:27:21,800
He looks really polished, which given the pedigree and the tutelage you assume he's

434
00:27:21,800 --> 00:27:26,880
gotten from his father, the great Frank Gore, the Buffalo Bill great Frank Gore, you're

435
00:27:26,880 --> 00:27:31,360
not surprised to see it, but that's somebody who I'd love to see them stash on the practice

436
00:27:31,360 --> 00:27:36,640
squad and potentially get some run next season as a depth piece is that third or even backup

437
00:27:36,640 --> 00:27:37,640
running back.

438
00:27:37,640 --> 00:27:42,080
I really liked what I saw to him particularly, but I want to talk about QBs because listen,

439
00:27:42,080 --> 00:27:47,280
we all know that, that if Josh Allen goes down, the season is done anyway.

440
00:27:47,280 --> 00:27:50,960
But it's interesting what is happening in the QB room right now with Mitchell Trabisky's

441
00:27:50,960 --> 00:27:54,960
injury, which right now we don't know the extent of.

442
00:27:54,960 --> 00:27:59,320
And we, and there's guaranteed money in his contract.

443
00:27:59,320 --> 00:28:06,040
Keith had hoped that the bills were in a position that a lot of teams are when they sign a great

444
00:28:06,040 --> 00:28:07,840
QB to a long-term deal.

445
00:28:07,840 --> 00:28:11,600
They start to draft rookies and develop them in their system.

446
00:28:11,600 --> 00:28:14,760
You hope down the line, they become trade bait for a third round pick or whatever it

447
00:28:14,760 --> 00:28:15,760
is.

448
00:28:15,760 --> 00:28:20,440
But the bills went with a high priced veteran who probably doesn't win you many games because

449
00:28:20,440 --> 00:28:22,440
we know what Mitchell Trabisky is.

450
00:28:22,440 --> 00:28:24,480
He struggles in short area.

451
00:28:24,480 --> 00:28:28,200
He holds onto the ball too long and he's a liability throwing it downfield.

452
00:28:28,200 --> 00:28:31,160
But he's pretty good in the QB run game.

453
00:28:31,160 --> 00:28:35,640
So all that being said, is there a guy not on the roster because they're handling the

454
00:28:35,640 --> 00:28:40,800
QB room that they now need to go reach for who's going to get caught like a Mike White

455
00:28:40,800 --> 00:28:43,840
who just got cut from Miami today, right?

456
00:28:43,840 --> 00:28:49,280
Are the bills still unsettled in the QB room behind Josh Allen?

457
00:28:49,280 --> 00:28:52,160
I don't like Mitch Trabisky as a player.

458
00:28:52,160 --> 00:28:58,840
I think that he was inconsistent, inefficient, and ineffective the last time he was with

459
00:28:58,840 --> 00:29:00,480
the bills two years ago.

460
00:29:00,480 --> 00:29:04,200
I think he is worse now than he was then.

461
00:29:04,200 --> 00:29:09,640
But I think Mitch Trabisky now, when healthy, still better than Kyle Allen, who I think

462
00:29:09,640 --> 00:29:16,720
is so remarkably under skilled when it comes to his athletic tools.

463
00:29:16,720 --> 00:29:18,720
His athletic tools, I think, is the problem, right?

464
00:29:18,720 --> 00:29:25,080
Kyle Allen, he's in the NFL as a backup, he gets contracts, he must be good at play

465
00:29:25,080 --> 00:29:30,560
intelligence and kind of an understanding systems and where the ball should go and timing

466
00:29:30,560 --> 00:29:31,800
and pacing.

467
00:29:31,800 --> 00:29:34,400
But the problem is his athletic skills just aren't there.

468
00:29:34,400 --> 00:29:39,880
And so I think that I saying that I can still see the bills signing him if Mitch Trabisky

469
00:29:39,880 --> 00:29:43,360
can't go week one, and he gets clipped from Pittsburgh.

470
00:29:43,360 --> 00:29:46,520
I could also see the bill signing Keith's Kenan to come back because I think case Kenan

471
00:29:46,520 --> 00:29:52,760
actually of the bills most recent backup quarterbacks was one who I like the most.

472
00:29:52,760 --> 00:29:57,240
He had a decent showing in the preseason when he was with the bills.

473
00:29:57,240 --> 00:30:02,080
And I think that he is a capable distributor of the football because of his pedigree is

474
00:30:02,080 --> 00:30:04,000
long veteran status.

475
00:30:04,000 --> 00:30:07,040
And so I think there's an opportunity there.

476
00:30:07,040 --> 00:30:12,400
Honestly for me, because again, as you mentioned, seasons cooked if Josh Allen mixes any appra..

477
00:30:12,400 --> 00:30:17,560
or misses any appreciable time, but I wouldn't mind Ben D'Nucci.

478
00:30:17,560 --> 00:30:24,120
Give me a Ben D'Nucci if Mitch Trabisky because because I think here and here's why Ben D'Nucci

479
00:30:24,120 --> 00:30:30,440
still has movement on his ceiling capable, I think because he's a younger player.

480
00:30:30,440 --> 00:30:35,600
I think that when you were talking about case Kenan, Kyle Allen, Mitch Trabisky, there none

481
00:30:35,600 --> 00:30:40,360
of them is going to get beyond the ceiling that we've seen in the NFL in the league.

482
00:30:40,360 --> 00:30:41,440
Ben D'Nucci might.

483
00:30:41,440 --> 00:30:46,160
He might still have some seasoning and some flavor and and he might have a little bit

484
00:30:46,160 --> 00:30:48,200
longer to go on the slow cooker.

485
00:30:48,200 --> 00:30:51,260
Those other guys, they're already cooked.

486
00:30:51,260 --> 00:30:56,280
It's just wild to me how much guaranteed money we have to commit to our QB to because we failed

487
00:30:56,280 --> 00:31:01,320
to draft we failed to draft like a capable rookie QB because again, no matter what happens

488
00:31:01,320 --> 00:31:06,360
with Josh Allen, seasons like if Josh Allen is hurt, the season is over.

489
00:31:06,360 --> 00:31:11,520
There is no one you're going to find on the veteran QB market that is going to elevate

490
00:31:11,520 --> 00:31:13,320
you to where you need to be to make the playoffs.

491
00:31:13,320 --> 00:31:14,320
Just not going to happen.

492
00:31:14,320 --> 00:31:18,520
Joe Flacco is not walking through that door and you know what I mean.

493
00:31:18,520 --> 00:31:23,520
So to me, it was a missed opportunity that honestly could have bought them some cap savings,

494
00:31:23,520 --> 00:31:24,720
but whatever.

495
00:31:24,720 --> 00:31:30,480
So Ben D'Nucci, the Buffalo Bread podcast is on board with you being our QB to we welcome

496
00:31:30,480 --> 00:31:33,560
you as the prince who was promised from James Madison University.

497
00:31:33,560 --> 00:31:34,560
Come on the show, Ben.

498
00:31:34,560 --> 00:31:35,560
We'll get you on.

499
00:31:35,560 --> 00:31:37,400
Tell the world your story.

500
00:31:37,400 --> 00:31:38,400
That's right.

501
00:31:38,400 --> 00:31:39,400
We want to hear all about you.

502
00:31:39,400 --> 00:31:40,840
All right, sir.

503
00:31:40,840 --> 00:31:43,560
So preseason is wrapped.

504
00:31:43,560 --> 00:31:49,720
We now have a couple of weeks to set the table for for the Buffalo Bills upcoming 2024 regular

505
00:31:49,720 --> 00:31:56,760
season and I want to kick that process off with some prediction sure to go wrong.

506
00:31:56,760 --> 00:32:00,200
Limited predictions because we got to stretch this out over two episodes here before we

507
00:32:00,200 --> 00:32:02,040
get into the Cardinals pregame.

508
00:32:02,040 --> 00:32:05,280
But I want to talk about a couple of areas and listen, I did some digging and I did some

509
00:32:05,280 --> 00:32:10,560
research and I've got three areas that I want to unpack with you that I think will be a

510
00:32:10,560 --> 00:32:12,320
lot of fun to do.

511
00:32:12,320 --> 00:32:16,840
One is the overall bills win total for the upcoming season.

512
00:32:16,840 --> 00:32:19,680
Pretty pretty pretty mundane stuff, right?

513
00:32:19,680 --> 00:32:23,000
Everyone's going to give a win total prediction at some point over the next couple of weeks,

514
00:32:23,000 --> 00:32:24,880
particularly after the 53 man comes out.

515
00:32:24,880 --> 00:32:29,960
But I think there's some interesting things showing out on the bills schedule with regard

516
00:32:29,960 --> 00:32:35,600
to strength of schedule that I think should be factored in before the 53 man gets settled.

517
00:32:35,600 --> 00:32:38,160
Next, I want to talk about Red Zone, dude.

518
00:32:38,160 --> 00:32:43,600
The bills were really good in the Red Zone last season and they have added some really

519
00:32:43,600 --> 00:32:48,080
fun weapons that Brady and Alan can mess around with.

520
00:32:48,080 --> 00:32:53,040
I want to talk about who we think the number one Red Zone target for the bills is going

521
00:32:53,040 --> 00:32:56,440
to be and my pick is likely going to surprise a lot of people.

522
00:32:56,440 --> 00:32:59,800
And then finally, I want to talk about tempo of this offense.

523
00:32:59,800 --> 00:33:05,440
This is a run first ball control heavy offense based on what we saw last season, weeks 11

524
00:33:05,440 --> 00:33:08,640
through 18, when Joe Brady took over.

525
00:33:08,640 --> 00:33:12,440
But I think there's going to be some fun wrinkles we're going to see, particularly from a matchup

526
00:33:12,440 --> 00:33:17,360
standpoint with what the bills are going to be facing on their schedule in 2024.

527
00:33:17,360 --> 00:33:20,120
So JJ, let's kick it off with win totals.

528
00:33:20,120 --> 00:33:21,120
Let's start there.

529
00:33:21,120 --> 00:33:22,120
All right.

530
00:33:22,120 --> 00:33:27,480
So the betting over under right now from Vegas is 10 and a half for the Buffalo Bills.

531
00:33:27,480 --> 00:33:31,320
I've seen some predictions from people I respect at the ringer and the athletic go

532
00:33:31,320 --> 00:33:32,680
as high as 12.

533
00:33:32,680 --> 00:33:36,960
I have also seen some people say this is going to be a season where the bills are effectively

534
00:33:36,960 --> 00:33:39,400
punting and rebuilding the roster.

535
00:33:39,400 --> 00:33:41,960
I've seen wind totals as low as seven.

536
00:33:41,960 --> 00:33:47,260
JJ, where do you sit with the Buffalo Bills overall win total?

537
00:33:47,260 --> 00:33:52,360
They are going to be playing the ninth hardest schedule based on projected wind totals this

538
00:33:52,360 --> 00:33:53,360
season.

539
00:33:53,360 --> 00:33:56,960
And they've got some interesting metrics that they're going to need to be meeting.

540
00:33:56,960 --> 00:34:01,480
They're going to need to be facing when it comes to last season's defensive DVOA.

541
00:34:01,480 --> 00:34:07,280
They're playing 11 of their 17 games against teams that were either a top 10 in passing

542
00:34:07,280 --> 00:34:11,040
defense by DVOA or run defense by DVOA last season.

543
00:34:11,040 --> 00:34:14,320
So they've got some interesting matchups down here.

544
00:34:14,320 --> 00:34:18,080
Where are you with the Buffalo Bills win total?

545
00:34:18,080 --> 00:34:20,960
I think they're going to be able to go 11 and six.

546
00:34:20,960 --> 00:34:24,520
To prepare for the pod, I did the classic Bills fan exercise.

547
00:34:24,520 --> 00:34:29,760
You look at the schedule and you like jot down W or L next to them as you go.

548
00:34:29,760 --> 00:34:34,880
And I think that the reason that I'm pretty confident the Bills will get over 10 wins

549
00:34:34,880 --> 00:34:41,080
is that they have a number of younger quarterbacks that they're playing early in the season.

550
00:34:41,080 --> 00:34:46,360
And I think that's very good for the Bills is to play people in new situations younger,

551
00:34:46,360 --> 00:34:52,800
like getting Marvin Harrison, Jr. week one of his NFL career, I think is a benefit because

552
00:34:52,800 --> 00:34:58,400
I don't want to play that guy when he like gets his full when he knocks the rust off and

553
00:34:58,400 --> 00:35:00,760
is like fully ready to go.

554
00:35:00,760 --> 00:35:05,200
Even with the quarterback situation in Arizona and the rest of the offense in Arizona, I

555
00:35:05,200 --> 00:35:07,080
don't want to I don't want to play that guy later.

556
00:35:07,080 --> 00:35:11,400
The Miami Dolphins, their bills are going to play early and their defenses and shambles

557
00:35:11,400 --> 00:35:14,560
with injuries until midseason.

558
00:35:14,560 --> 00:35:16,520
And so there's multiple opportunities.

559
00:35:16,520 --> 00:35:21,320
I think the Bills can come out to a hot start and really get things going.

560
00:35:21,320 --> 00:35:23,840
And for that reason, I think they can go 11 and six.

561
00:35:23,840 --> 00:35:24,840
And I think it's going to be a challenge.

562
00:35:24,840 --> 00:35:28,400
I think there's going to be some games that the Bills give up that people are just like,

563
00:35:28,400 --> 00:35:30,400
Oh, yeah, absolutely.

564
00:35:30,400 --> 00:35:33,360
I would not sleep on Arizona week one.

565
00:35:33,360 --> 00:35:41,960
Jonathan Gannon, we saw how much of a defensive mind he was that Arizona defense last season

566
00:35:41,960 --> 00:35:42,960
was terrible.

567
00:35:42,960 --> 00:35:45,080
And by every metric, they were terrible.

568
00:35:45,080 --> 00:35:50,640
But when you look at their film, he was just doing some really weird funky stuff that I

569
00:35:50,640 --> 00:35:54,240
think will not play well with Josh's pre snap reads.

570
00:35:54,240 --> 00:35:58,200
They're running a lot of amoeba stuff that we'll get into when we get into the pre game

571
00:35:58,200 --> 00:36:04,200
that I think if you've got four months to plan your first game against a squad, I think

572
00:36:04,200 --> 00:36:06,320
could really throw a monkey wrench into things.

573
00:36:06,320 --> 00:36:07,640
Miami, I'm with you.

574
00:36:07,640 --> 00:36:11,680
I think Anthony Weaver is going to be a great DC for them, but they're on their third DC

575
00:36:11,680 --> 00:36:15,160
in three seasons and everyone knows what Miami is at this point.

576
00:36:15,160 --> 00:36:16,320
They're going to try to run fast.

577
00:36:16,320 --> 00:36:20,760
I think Jacksonville has a chance to be a true dumpster fire this season.

578
00:36:20,760 --> 00:36:26,520
Gabe Davis came to camp overweight has not been showing out does not look like he's

579
00:36:26,520 --> 00:36:29,920
a really good fit for what Doug Peterson wants to do.

580
00:36:29,920 --> 00:36:33,000
And Peterson may very well be the most overrated coach.

581
00:36:33,000 --> 00:36:36,960
Baltimore Houston, New York Jets then becomes a really tough stretch run.

582
00:36:36,960 --> 00:36:41,000
And dude, after that Tennessee game, I wouldn't sleep on Seattle.

583
00:36:41,000 --> 00:36:46,000
Mike McDonald to me is a great defensive mind.

584
00:36:46,000 --> 00:36:52,400
He is going to unlock that pass rush in Seattle and he's going to disguise where the pressure

585
00:36:52,400 --> 00:36:55,280
is coming from in so many unique ways.

586
00:36:55,280 --> 00:36:59,960
And that is also something that's been an Achilles heel for Josh Presnap is reading

587
00:36:59,960 --> 00:37:02,280
where pressure is actually coming from.

588
00:37:02,280 --> 00:37:05,360
So there are some trouble spots on here.

589
00:37:05,360 --> 00:37:10,240
And because of that, I have for the bills at 10 and seven.

590
00:37:10,240 --> 00:37:15,760
Now I still think 10 and seven wins the division potentially because again, we just don't know

591
00:37:15,760 --> 00:37:17,440
what we're going to get with the Jets.

592
00:37:17,440 --> 00:37:22,280
Like the Jets have the easiest first eight games of the season and then it gets markedly

593
00:37:22,280 --> 00:37:25,020
harder for them towards the latter half of the season.

594
00:37:25,020 --> 00:37:28,800
So as bills fans, we could be suffering through the Jets are foreign.

595
00:37:28,800 --> 00:37:32,060
Oh, Aaron Rogers, the promises fulfilled, right?

596
00:37:32,060 --> 00:37:36,040
We could be suffering through a lot of that in September and early October.

597
00:37:36,040 --> 00:37:39,840
But ultimately, I don't know where the Jets are going to land because without a son retic,

598
00:37:39,840 --> 00:37:42,440
I don't know where their past rush is coming from.

599
00:37:42,440 --> 00:37:47,600
And that is a team that likes to stubbornly play for defensive down linemen like we do

600
00:37:47,600 --> 00:37:48,940
and not blitz.

601
00:37:48,940 --> 00:37:52,920
So it's going to be really interesting to see the Jets defense and how they make up

602
00:37:52,920 --> 00:37:53,920
for that.

603
00:37:53,920 --> 00:38:01,080
Then dude, that stretch run of Casey, San Fran, the Rams, Detroit, and then New England,

604
00:38:01,080 --> 00:38:04,120
New Jersey, New England to finish out the season.

605
00:38:04,120 --> 00:38:08,320
That's a rough stretch run, even with New England apparently punting on this year.

606
00:38:08,320 --> 00:38:10,720
10 and seven dude feels like where it's at for me.

607
00:38:10,720 --> 00:38:14,640
The game that I saw on the schedule as I was doing the little exercise, I was like, ooh,

608
00:38:14,640 --> 00:38:18,600
maybe that one's going to be dicey at LA Rams week 14.

609
00:38:18,600 --> 00:38:24,640
Yeah, there's going to be playoff seating on the line and the bills have to travel across

610
00:38:24,640 --> 00:38:29,400
the country to the West Coast, which is always a challenge for East Coast teams.

611
00:38:29,400 --> 00:38:31,800
And it's not to mention it's a 425 game.

612
00:38:31,800 --> 00:38:36,560
So the bills will be playing at one, their body clocks wise, which is good.

613
00:38:36,560 --> 00:38:42,320
But that loss at Pukinacua, like, I think that team is going to be solid this year.

614
00:38:42,320 --> 00:38:43,320
Stafford's healthy.

615
00:38:43,320 --> 00:38:44,320
Yeah, that's healthy.

616
00:38:44,320 --> 00:38:45,320
That all is healthy.

617
00:38:45,320 --> 00:38:49,160
It's going to be a wet and I think that the bills are going to have a challenge out there.

618
00:38:49,160 --> 00:38:51,680
That's probably going to be another shootout, I would imagine.

619
00:38:51,680 --> 00:38:52,680
So yeah.

620
00:38:52,680 --> 00:38:53,680
All right, dude.

621
00:38:53,680 --> 00:38:55,160
Next, I want to talk about Red Zone.

622
00:38:55,160 --> 00:39:01,160
So the bills last season, second in EPA per play in the Red Zone, and they ranked fifth

623
00:39:01,160 --> 00:39:04,520
in total Red Zone touchdowns, according to PFF.

624
00:39:04,520 --> 00:39:08,240
They didn't do it with a lot of traditional running back carries.

625
00:39:08,240 --> 00:39:13,480
James Cook was only carry the ball about a quarter of the time in the Red Zone, as opposed

626
00:39:13,480 --> 00:39:19,120
to 70% of the time and all snaps before they hit the Red Zone last season.

627
00:39:19,120 --> 00:39:24,280
They've got some fun new weapons for Josh to play with to Keon Coleman, Mack Hollins,

628
00:39:24,280 --> 00:39:25,720
I think could be a factor.

629
00:39:25,720 --> 00:39:31,440
And then for both fantasy value and real life value, we want to see Dalton Kincaid kind

630
00:39:31,440 --> 00:39:36,920
of progress and add to the yak and add to the reception totals with some meaningful

631
00:39:36,920 --> 00:39:38,720
touchdown production as well.

632
00:39:38,720 --> 00:39:40,840
So he could be a factor there too.

633
00:39:40,840 --> 00:39:47,160
But dude, there is a tried and true Red Zone weapon on this bill's offense that I think

634
00:39:47,160 --> 00:39:50,160
is going to show through this season.

635
00:39:50,160 --> 00:39:55,160
My prediction sure to go wrong is that Dawson Knox is going to lead the bills in Red Zone

636
00:39:55,160 --> 00:39:59,800
TD receptions this year, despite all of the new additions, despite all of the growth that

637
00:39:59,800 --> 00:40:02,160
we hope to see out of Dalton Kincaid.

638
00:40:02,160 --> 00:40:09,080
Dawson Knox has never ranked lower than fifth in Red Zone targets throughout his career

639
00:40:09,080 --> 00:40:11,120
with the Buffalo Bills.

640
00:40:11,120 --> 00:40:17,320
And he has had seasons where he has tied or been the leader in Red Zone receptions for

641
00:40:17,320 --> 00:40:21,640
the Buffalo Bills on three of the last four seasons.

642
00:40:21,640 --> 00:40:25,600
That is quite something to consider when you factor in the fact that he's not been healthy

643
00:40:25,600 --> 00:40:27,880
for all of those seasons either.

644
00:40:27,880 --> 00:40:33,800
There is something about Dawson Knox in the Red Zone that gives Josh Allen a lot of comfort.

645
00:40:33,800 --> 00:40:39,480
And I think you're going to see so many squads key in on Coleman, look for Ray Davis out

646
00:40:39,480 --> 00:40:44,160
of the backfield, key in on Dalton Kincaid, Mack Hollins, they're going to look to shut

647
00:40:44,160 --> 00:40:45,320
those guys down.

648
00:40:45,320 --> 00:40:49,600
I think this is a season right for the return of Dawson's leak.

649
00:40:49,600 --> 00:40:51,240
Dawson's leak in the Red Zone, my friend.

650
00:40:51,240 --> 00:40:52,240
Dawson's leak.

651
00:40:52,240 --> 00:40:53,240
Yes.

652
00:40:53,240 --> 00:40:54,240
Pacey.

653
00:40:54,240 --> 00:40:57,520
So it, no, I think that's a really astute point.

654
00:40:57,520 --> 00:41:01,480
And it's funny because you were saying that and my prediction sure to go wrong about Red

655
00:41:01,480 --> 00:41:07,600
Zone success was key on Coleman is going to lead the team in Red Zone TDs.

656
00:41:07,600 --> 00:41:13,080
But it like stifled my point so hard when you were like, I think teams are going to,

657
00:41:13,080 --> 00:41:16,760
and I was like, oh, no, there's telegraph, they're telegraphing it.

658
00:41:16,760 --> 00:41:20,440
There are scripted so many preseason Red Zone stuff for him.

659
00:41:20,440 --> 00:41:21,440
Yeah.

660
00:41:21,440 --> 00:41:22,520
And they probably will.

661
00:41:22,520 --> 00:41:26,080
I think that the thing that the bills are probably pretty bullish on and part of the

662
00:41:26,080 --> 00:41:31,280
reason they made that pick of Keon, the first pick in the second round is that he's shown

663
00:41:31,280 --> 00:41:37,720
in preseason in some regards, but also mostly in training camp that if he does have even

664
00:41:37,720 --> 00:41:43,480
a half foot, half yard of separation from a competitor and Josh Allen puts the ball

665
00:41:43,480 --> 00:41:46,880
on him, I think that's the piece Josh Allen putting the ball on him.

666
00:41:46,880 --> 00:41:51,440
Mitch Trubisky putting the ball on him isn't going to get, get the answers.

667
00:41:51,440 --> 00:41:55,640
But Josh Allen and him have already developed a pretty significant chemistry in terms of

668
00:41:55,640 --> 00:42:00,240
Keon catching literally everything around him.

669
00:42:00,240 --> 00:42:05,240
And more impressively, his body control and ability to get his feet in bounds.

670
00:42:05,240 --> 00:42:10,120
I think that there's going to be some like just jump ball situations early in the season

671
00:42:10,120 --> 00:42:14,480
and maybe throughout the season they develop into a very strong chemistry.

672
00:42:14,480 --> 00:42:20,720
And so I see Keon Coleman as being the Red Zone target du jour and I'm excited for it.

673
00:42:20,720 --> 00:42:24,760
But I, yeah, when you made that point about Dawson Knox, I was like, Oh yeah, no, he'll

674
00:42:24,760 --> 00:42:29,600
definitely fly into the radar if they're in 12th personnel close to the goal line threatening

675
00:42:29,600 --> 00:42:30,880
with the run.

676
00:42:30,880 --> 00:42:33,280
There's Dawson's leak written all over that.

677
00:42:33,280 --> 00:42:35,280
So it's going to be, it's going to be interesting.

678
00:42:35,280 --> 00:42:40,320
I'm hoping for the sake of the bill's wide receiver room future that it's my guy, but

679
00:42:40,320 --> 00:42:41,320
it might be your guy.

680
00:42:41,320 --> 00:42:46,960
I know it's very reasonable that it's the guy who's been there all along that ends up

681
00:42:46,960 --> 00:42:52,040
being benefiting most from all the new additions and new weapons they've added for the Red

682
00:42:52,040 --> 00:42:53,040
Zone offense.

683
00:42:53,040 --> 00:42:54,040
Yeah.

684
00:42:54,040 --> 00:42:55,040
All right.

685
00:42:55,040 --> 00:42:59,480
Last one JJ last prediction sure to go wrong and where we are again, this is an appetizer

686
00:42:59,480 --> 00:43:02,280
for where we're going to be at over the next couple of weeks here.

687
00:43:02,280 --> 00:43:05,640
We've got more wild stuff we're going to talk about in a bourbon bet that we also need to

688
00:43:05,640 --> 00:43:07,400
decide on what it's going to be.

689
00:43:07,400 --> 00:43:11,840
Though I think an early contender is the who's going to lead the team in Red Zone receptions.

690
00:43:11,840 --> 00:43:13,640
But I want to talk about tempo.

691
00:43:13,640 --> 00:43:20,440
The Buffalo bills last season JJ from weeks 11 to 18 had the second lowest pack rate in

692
00:43:20,440 --> 00:43:26,360
the league and the highest traditional running back run rate in the NFL.

693
00:43:26,360 --> 00:43:32,640
Wild to think about when you've got Josh Allen under center, but we saw the benefits play

694
00:43:32,640 --> 00:43:33,640
out in the long run.

695
00:43:33,640 --> 00:43:39,760
They didn't see a whole lot of a lot of regression in EPA per play from the switch from Dorsey

696
00:43:39,760 --> 00:43:43,920
over to Brady and we actually saw time of possession go up.

697
00:43:43,920 --> 00:43:47,400
The bills finished second in the league behind only Cleveland in time of possession last

698
00:43:47,400 --> 00:43:51,800
year and turnovers go way, way down as well.

699
00:43:51,800 --> 00:43:56,480
So a lot of people are heading into the season JJ and they're expecting the bills to be built

700
00:43:56,480 --> 00:43:58,360
around the run.

701
00:43:58,360 --> 00:44:01,840
And I think there is a lot of credibility to that idea.

702
00:44:01,840 --> 00:44:04,880
And I think rationally, it makes a lot of sense.

703
00:44:04,880 --> 00:44:10,680
But on a matchup to match up basis, and again, I look at that Seattle game, I also key in

704
00:44:10,680 --> 00:44:15,520
on the Houston game as well, the Jets game teams that we know are going to want to rotate

705
00:44:15,520 --> 00:44:17,960
in defensive line pieces.

706
00:44:17,960 --> 00:44:23,360
Tempo could be key in really playing a war of attrition against some of these defensive

707
00:44:23,360 --> 00:44:29,600
lines that love to rotate seven or eight deep and really mitigate some of that last season.

708
00:44:29,600 --> 00:44:34,560
JJ, the bills only played tempo no huddle on 11% of their snaps.

709
00:44:34,560 --> 00:44:41,560
But Josh Allen's passer rating went from a 93.2 to a 104.9.

710
00:44:41,560 --> 00:44:44,200
And we've seen it in real time with the eye test.

711
00:44:44,200 --> 00:44:47,960
Josh just looks way more comfortable slaying it and a two minute offense.

712
00:44:47,960 --> 00:44:49,360
You know what I mean?

713
00:44:49,360 --> 00:44:51,520
Not that they're going to run it all the time.

714
00:44:51,520 --> 00:44:56,560
But I think situationally to keep some of these deeper defensive lines off of Josh,

715
00:44:56,560 --> 00:45:02,400
I could see up tempo being a factor and being mixed in to Brady's playbook.

716
00:45:02,400 --> 00:45:07,000
So JJ, my prediction sure to go wrong, the bills are going to effectively double their

717
00:45:07,000 --> 00:45:08,000
tempo rate.

718
00:45:08,000 --> 00:45:13,080
They're going to go from 11% in my opinion to about 20% of the time next season again,

719
00:45:13,080 --> 00:45:15,960
based purely on a matchup by matchup basis.

720
00:45:15,960 --> 00:45:21,720
This isn't going to be the K-Gun offense that we've all been calling for to be revitalized

721
00:45:21,720 --> 00:45:23,160
with Josh Allen.

722
00:45:23,160 --> 00:45:26,880
But I think we're going to see a lot more tempo in certain game matchups.

723
00:45:26,880 --> 00:45:29,520
JJ, what do you think about that?

724
00:45:29,520 --> 00:45:37,040
Dan, I will take your 20% and I will raise you because I think the Buffalo Bills are

725
00:45:37,040 --> 00:45:39,520
going to unveil the J-Gun offense.

726
00:45:39,520 --> 00:45:40,520
Dude.

727
00:45:40,520 --> 00:45:48,480
And with a 30% up tempo rate, I think they're going to go no head all for portions of games

728
00:45:48,480 --> 00:45:55,080
because I'm going to just go counter anti NFL media that thinks this is going to be

729
00:45:55,080 --> 00:46:01,760
a plodding three yards in the cloud of dust rushing offense with occasional play action.

730
00:46:01,760 --> 00:46:04,080
Now I think they're going to come out and be slinging it.

731
00:46:04,080 --> 00:46:10,640
I think that the level of vanilla-ness to the lack of flavor to the Joe Brady offense

732
00:46:10,640 --> 00:46:15,280
in the preseason is going to catch a lot of people by surprise in week one, week two,

733
00:46:15,280 --> 00:46:19,720
especially once we get into the AFC East matchups in the first four weeks.

734
00:46:19,720 --> 00:46:23,480
I think you're going to see some things that the league's not ready for.

735
00:46:23,480 --> 00:46:25,120
I'm excited for it.

736
00:46:25,120 --> 00:46:26,120
Wow.

737
00:46:26,120 --> 00:46:27,120
I love it.

738
00:46:27,120 --> 00:46:30,400
This feels a little bit like wish casting, but I really love where you're at.

739
00:46:30,400 --> 00:46:34,400
We've just, and we love Josh, right?

740
00:46:34,400 --> 00:46:40,120
But like he is at his absolute worst when he is sucking up the play clock, doing all

741
00:46:40,120 --> 00:46:45,720
these checks, trying to figure out where the pressure is coming from, realigning his wide

742
00:46:45,720 --> 00:46:46,720
receivers.

743
00:46:46,720 --> 00:46:52,120
When he's doing and mired and muck and doing all those things, the offense is performing

744
00:46:52,120 --> 00:46:55,080
at its absolute lowest point.

745
00:46:55,080 --> 00:46:59,040
When he gets out there, makes a couple of reads, sends some guys to go play.

746
00:46:59,040 --> 00:47:00,480
His decision making is quicker.

747
00:47:00,480 --> 00:47:02,400
His turnovers are lower.

748
00:47:02,400 --> 00:47:07,960
It is absolutely not night and day, but you see the difference in real time.

749
00:47:07,960 --> 00:47:14,360
And there's a reason why Josh is so good in limited fourth quarter situations where time

750
00:47:14,360 --> 00:47:16,720
is running down the two minute drill.

751
00:47:16,720 --> 00:47:21,520
That's where Josh has made his hay and really made his reputation as a QB.

752
00:47:21,520 --> 00:47:26,360
It makes sense putting more of those elements into real game situations.

753
00:47:26,360 --> 00:47:28,560
So I love where you're at.

754
00:47:28,560 --> 00:47:32,040
30 feels really high, but man.

755
00:47:32,040 --> 00:47:34,160
30 would, I would go sign.

756
00:47:34,160 --> 00:47:37,920
Yeah, but 30 would set an NFL record over the last 12 seasons.

757
00:47:37,920 --> 00:47:38,920
I know, right?

758
00:47:38,920 --> 00:47:41,200
I understand how obscene that would be.

759
00:47:41,200 --> 00:47:42,200
It would be wild.

760
00:47:42,200 --> 00:47:44,640
Chip Kelly is listening to the spot.

761
00:47:44,640 --> 00:47:45,640
What?

762
00:47:45,640 --> 00:47:52,880
What I'm saying is it would be absolutely groundbreakingly and backbreakingly aggressive

763
00:47:52,880 --> 00:47:55,800
because of the amount of time of possession.

764
00:47:55,800 --> 00:48:01,560
If the bills go three on out with that method would just be so horrendously skewed towards

765
00:48:01,560 --> 00:48:02,560
the opponent's favor.

766
00:48:02,560 --> 00:48:04,160
It would be so bad.

767
00:48:04,160 --> 00:48:06,120
I just don't think McDermott would allow it.

768
00:48:06,120 --> 00:48:07,680
But yeah, fun stuff.

769
00:48:07,680 --> 00:48:11,480
And again, just a taste of those for you, for those of you listening at home and where

770
00:48:11,480 --> 00:48:16,360
we're going to be at next week as we really dig into the 53 man roster and talk about

771
00:48:16,360 --> 00:48:20,560
what it means for the bill season as we're building up to 2024.

772
00:48:20,560 --> 00:48:23,560
But until then, thank you for listening as always.

773
00:48:23,560 --> 00:48:28,560
Like share and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts, YouTube coming to you soon,

774
00:48:28,560 --> 00:48:29,560
Apple and Spotify.

775
00:48:29,560 --> 00:48:31,560
And as always, go bills.

776
00:48:31,560 --> 00:48:55,240
What?

777
00:48:55,240 --> 00:48:57,240
You

