Buffalo bread is where the fun begins
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Join us on this crazy, feels not fear of me
Laugh along with JJ Dan Dan
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to the now we're ready to roll
And welcome back everyone, it is training camp season
It is the season of optimism run rampant for all football fans
And you are listening to Buffalo Bread, Buffalo Bill's fan podcast
Here kicking off season four with what can only be described as a pure chaos episode
Normally we leave our friends of the pod segments till the end of the season
We decided there was no better way to kick off what is truly going to be
Maybe one of the more competitive AFCE races in recent memory
Than by bringing all of our friends on the pod here for episode one season four
To help set the table not just for your beloved Buffalo Bill's
But for all other AFCE's teams
Very happy here to be joined by voices you know and takes that you are familiar with
We've got our good friend Brandon representing the Pats, Jared on the Jets
And our finn sider Steve ready to drop some knowledge on you
As training camp season begins
So guys why don't we go around the horn here
Introduce yourselves to the fans in case they haven't had a chance to hear you before
And then I'll set up what today is going to look like but it's truly going to be a fun one
Brandon why don't we start with you
Hey, happy to be here, been a Patriots fan since the undefeated 2007 season
And thanks for having me back, looking forward to trash talking the Bill's with some of our friends here
Yeah I just realized the math here is not in my favor
Having the three of you guys on the podcast at once
Jared you're up next
Fear not, you'll get no vitriol from me
My name is Jared, I'm a lifelong Jets fan
The summery is pretty easy, I'm from Long Island and I'm Jewish
I wasn't given a choice
And I am supposed to be thrilled about what this Jets season is going to look like
I really don't know what's about to come out of this podcast
So we're going to find out in real time how I actually feel about this day
If Aaron Rodgers makes it through the first four plays of the season
It's already improvement on last or anything for you guys
100% better, what do you have to ask for?
And then Steve, introduce yourself to the fans
Absolutely, thanks again for having me on
Lifelong Fins fan, we thrive in mediocrity in the post-Marino era
Now going on year 25 I believe
But here we are
And I have a bold prediction for tonight, I can't wait to share it
Oh god, I can't wait to hear it either
If it's about Mike McDaniel not changing his offense meaningfully for another season we might agree on that
So we'll see how it goes
Alright, so happy to have the three of you on
For those of you wondering where JJ is at
He is enjoying the final weeks of Paternity Leave with Little Baby Theo
He'll be joining us again next week in style
To recap training camp thoughts and get the pre-season going with us
So in the meantime, Sans JJ
You've got the four of us ready to get the 2024 NFL season started for you
So the way the episode today is going to work is going to be very very simple
We're going to go through each AFC East team starting with the Pats and ending with the Bills
There's going to be a little bit of take session from each of our fan experts
On why they think their team has a shot to win the AFC East
And what is the one factor they think will prevent their team from taking the crown from the Bills this year
After that we're going to go around the horn
Ask each other a couple of quick hits, quick hit questions
In a lightning round segment
And then we're going to move on to the next team finally finishing up with the Bills
And then because it wouldn't be a Buffalo bread episode without prediction sure to go wrong
We're going to give you some Super Bowl picks for teams that are not in the AFC East
E-teams that we want to keep an eye on throughout the season
So Brandon, we're going to kick things off with you
So a couple of notable things that happened for you all this off season
I think maybe one of the most important ones
You move down from the last vestiges of the Belichick era by jettisoning Mack Jones
And then drafting your hopeful QB of the future and Drake May out of North Carolina
You've got Gerard Mayo hoping to get that first year coach bump
The D'Amico Ryan's and then the year before Brian Dabal benefited from
And of course you guys are ready to rock and roll
Probably another top five defensive unit heading into this season
Your DVOA metrics last year despite the anemic offense that the Patriots put out
Your defensive metrics there were through the roof
And we talked about it at the season recap last year
You're getting healthier with Judan Gonzalez coming back
So things are looking up on that side of the bulb
So Brandon, with all that stuff working in your favor
Please tell us why you think you are knowing when Patriots can win the AFC East
So it's absolutely going to be an uphill battle
The the Vegas sides currently have the Patriots winning four and a half games total
Dan you and I have talked about this and you said if you had an option of taking out your life savings
You would bet the over on the Patriots
Patriots last season were the worst team in fourth down conversions
And lost eight games by one score seven points or less essentially
So if the Patriots offense can figure out how to convert fourth downs
And turn some of those losses into wins
I think maybe there's a chance
But it's it's gonna be a slim one at best
Yeah, you know that that one score metric that is often considered a luck metric by a lot of advanced
analytic guys and that is something that usually comes back to the mean and it sounds like in your case
You're hoping for a positive regression back to the mean where you might steal a couple more of those games
The bills under Sean McDermott have been in that boat a couple of times in both 2021 and 2022
Where one score games were something they just could not get over the hump with
So you're thinking you guys have enough on offense depending on who starts
Drake, Mayor Jacoby percent and right now it looks like it's percent based on what's coming out of training camp
But you think just by sheer volume of the offense being more competent
You guys are going to work that metric on one on one score losses
In your favor and that's going to get you into a pretty good spot
I think so. There's there's new weapons on offense with Jalen Polk
Remandre they just granted a four year extension on him so he's going to be
You know, hopefully getting three to four yards every first down
Giving the quarterback whoever it is may or verset a nice cushion to work with
But again for this team to be successful, it's got to be on fourth down
Yeah, no, I think it's interesting. So with all of that
If it's just that simple, what are the what are the sticks in the bicycle wheels
Of the Patriots machine that could be thrown at it to keep them from winning the AFC East this year?
Yeah, for sure. So Kendrick born as the star receiver
Over on the Patriots roster currently on the POP so going to be missing a lot of reps in training camp
Not going to be able to build that chemistry with Drake may that we'd like to see
Berset is going to be there. I don't think they're going to repeat the mistakes of the past that they did with Mack Jones
And so, you know, may is going to have some time to learn behind Berset, which is going to be helpful
But there's a lot of things that can go wrong. The very, very tough schedule for the Patriots
I've seen some analysts saying that the Patriots have the toughest schedule
Some others have them sort of second or third behind some other teams
Obviously it's a new headcoat. So a lot of challenges. I'm not the most optimistic fan right now
But we'll see what happens
Gotcha. That is a that's a much more positive take than I thought you would have based on our text exchange
For sure. All right, so I'm going to open it up to the rest of the guys here because I've got I've got one thing
And I'm going to formulate this into a question why I think you guys might not win the East
I'd be interested in your take on it, but we're going to kick it off with our lightning around here
And I'm going to kick it to Jared first. So Jared, what burning question from the Jets fan base do you want to throw at our good friend Brandon?
The you know, I come from a franchise that doesn't do coaching very well
You are you are in the process of replacing, you know, if we're talking brass tacks, the greatest coach in the history of the sport
What is Gerard Mayo ceiling in this role and how does he navigate that cloud that's going to be perpetually over him, especially in a rebuild seat
Yeah, I don't I don't think there's a cloud over him. The Patriots had the best draft position that they have had in 20 years and and that was Gerard Mayo's
Opportunity not Bill Belichick's opportunity. It was the situation that Bill Belichick created. But you know, I agree with you.
What Belichick accomplished, you know, probably won't be replicated for some time. Mayo had the opportunity to learn underneath of him.
I do think Mayo has a unique advantage of being a former Patriot as a player. So I think that the newer guys are going to rally around his history with the team.
But I think also, we're going to see some of the stars who have been around for a while be given more of an opportunity to lead. And so does this become more of a players team than a coaches team.
Guys like Kendrick Bourne, Remandry Stevenson, Hunter Henry, Jude on like those are going to be big voices in the locker room that I think their fellow players and the younger guys in the room are going to want to play hard for
them. Not bad. Steve, what do you want to ask Brandon as we head into this beautiful season of football. So he kind of touched on it a little bit but I am super curious.
Who at quarterback sees the most playing time, or maybe a sub question to that is, when does that transition over to Drake may happen.
That's a really good question. So interesting fun fact. Mack Jones, who is now a Jaguar in his rookie season, played all 17 games for the Patriots.
What other rookie that season played all 17 games for their team.
Anybody Trevor Lawrence trivia. It was Trevor Lawrence. That's right. And now Mack Jones is the backup to Trevor Lawrence, which I think is really funny.
So, drawed Mayo came out earlier this week after camp started and said that brisette is very obviously the starter.
I think unless may is absolutely flawless and perfect in training camp. And, you know, it just looks legendary. The job is brisette, maybe by week eight, nine.
Maybe may comes onto the field depends on if the Patriots are winning games, because if they're winning games, then there's not going to be a change.
But if they're losing games, you know, and there's a viable second option, then we can see him, you know, I think as early as we get.
Do you foresee any type of like flip flopping out of some teams. It's like, Oh, drink me is going to get the start here.
But then he's pulled in the, you know, after the first half, you know, or is it going to be a definitive hard line. This is Drake mays team now.
I think Bella check played really silly games with Mack Jones and Bailey Zappi.
And I think it really sucks the air out of the locker room. Fans didn't like it. Players didn't like it.
You need to work that stuff out preseason. And they didn't have it figured out and they didn't help them long term.
So I think, again, they'll have it figured out and they'll have to basically kind of stick with it.
I don't anticipate a flip flop back and forth one week this guy one week that guy.
I think they want me to learn from a veteran QB. Let him get his feet wet a little bit and then, you know, we'll see him take the spotlight when he's ready.
I've got a I've got a kind of a follow up from my question, Brandon, but it's more of a plea.
Please don't play Drake made this year and the reason being, not because I'm afraid of them not yet. I think the kids talented.
It's because I question the ability of whatever patchwork offensive line you guys will be putting out there to protect him.
And that's my big question for you. How are you feeling about the offensive line?
So last season, the Buffalo Bills sported a top five offensive line in both rushing and past protection metrics.
All three other AFC East teams in this order, dolphins, jets, patriots ranked dead last in all those categories.
So 30 31 and 32. Your offensive line this year is made up of Mike on a one who I think is good, but you've got him slaughtered at right tackle and he feels more like a guard to me city.
So who up and down Jake Andrews Colestrange both are out right now. And then your left tackle is OK for with Caden Wallace, the rookie from Penn State.
It seems like you've got some holes on this offensive line. So my question for you, Brandon, is what is your confidence level that your situation in New England is a good one to play a rookie quarterback.
Yeah, that's a really good question. So in their first five draft picks this season, the Patriots drafted two offensive linemen so they have two rookies.
And Gerard Mayo said earlier this week that they're going to put the best players on the field on the offensive line and even acknowledge that, you know, the position doesn't matter. It's going to be whoever the best player is, is going to be in that spot.
And so I think this is an area like the quarterbacks shuffle is not going to happen per the previous question, but there's very likely going to be a shuffling and some experimenting happening with the O line, especially with some of our top guys coming back from injury.
So I'm not excited for that because Ramon Dre Stevenson is such a star. I think he is kind of the crutch of the team at this point that has really struggled offensively. So yeah, I'm not as optimistic on that front.
Yeah, no, I think that's wise to there's still some moves that you all could potentially make on the offensive line but yeah that that is the area I think even more so than wide receiver where the Pats really have a weakness that they need to address.
Cool, Brandon, you are off the clock sir. We're not going to move things on over to Jared and the Jets Jared come to my couch and tell us your feelings. Are you ready to go?
Oh boy. All right, so some highlights for you all. You know, I think it was a productive offseason clearly as the media has overstated and all in type of offseason for the Jets, bringing in veteran talent from multiple
pods. You've got Mike Williams coming in. You've got Moses coming in to help fortify the offensive line. You guys have done a lot in order to bolster the depth of the O line through the draft and through free agency.
You've added a running mate and Mike Williams for Garrett Wilson. The big question I think covering over this team is health. The health of Aaron Rogers who he has finally made his return.
When it comes to Williams and Moses, there's some injury history there. So you're banking on these veterans playing healthy, right? But if all those things work out, you have a much different deeper roster than you had last season.
So all of those things working in your favor and with some pundits saying that this will be the year we expected the Jets to have last year. Why are your Jets going to win the AFC East?
I hate being so obviously pragmatic, but I think the brass tacks way to say it is that if the Jets win the AFC East, it is because on paper, the Jets should have a real shot winning the AFC East.
They have the best defense statistically in the AFC East. They're probably going to have the best defense in the NFL this year. They have an incredible, incredible skill set position.
Receiver and Garrett Wilson. They have an every down back in Breeze Hall who was here for them in his comeback year last year.
And then they made the free agent signings that you needed to make on paper again on paper to cover their blind spots.
Both figuratively and literally from last season, revamped offensive line, clean up your slot receiver position in the draft and Joe Douglas for his shortcomings in terms of some personnel management and some coach hiring.
Joe Douglas is a home run hitter in the draft and I think he did it again. So if the Jets do what they are capable of doing on paper, then this is the year Jets fans are waiting for.
Very nice dude. Very nice. That was to sink. It was positive. You're in a much different place than where you were when we last spoke. I love it. I love where you're at.
So with all that working in your favor, what are some things you think might hinder this team from being able to topple the bills at the top of the AFC East?
I'm dating myself with this reference, but I was a big fan of the movie Baseball growing up and there is a very, very famous scene near the end of the movie Baseball where Koop Kooper lines up to shoot a home run and Bob Costas famously goes Koop Kooper.
Everything on the line. He can save his franchise. He can win his team's first championship. He can build an ownership stake in the team.
And our Michael leans in and goes, or he misses. And that is the Jets 2024 season in nutshell.
Or Aaron Rodgers, who hasn't fully been healthy in three seasons, is not healthy again. Or Mike Williams, who missed the overwhelming majority of last season with a busted wheel, isn't healthy and can't get enough attention off of Garrett Wilson for Garrett Wilson to be successful.
Or Reese Hall, who already tore one ACL has to be at every downback and touch the ball 35 times and he tears another ACL or goes down on the infamous metal Lance Turf.
Or the two offensive tackles that you brought in to clean up your team who have missed so many games already, but you needed to go bid because everyone and we're talking everyone's job is on the line.
For this franchise, so you had to go big to get them or they get hurt. And you're right back where you were because you spent all this money on bringing in.
And I use this word as conservatively as I can. Volatile pieces.
That is the Jared we have come to know and love on this pod. That is the rant that we have been waiting for on the New York Jets.
Perfect with a with a baseball reference to start. That was incredible. I mean, that was all I thought about all day is like get lines up for a home run that
was unbelievable. He misses. That was dude. That was set up perfectly. That was like the best stream of consciousness I've ever heard on this podcast.
So Jared, after that beautifully tuned, perfectly pitched rant about why I can't do it. I've got a bit of trivia for you before we move on to lightning round.
And it's about Aaron Rodgers because you noted his injury history over the past few years. And I couldn't believe the stat when I looked it up.
When was the last time Aaron Rodgers threw for 300 yards in a football game. Just give me a year off the cuff. I would say 2019 2021.
Wow. So post covid. Yeah. So post covid and then his entire final season with Green Bay, not a single 300 yard game. And of course he was injured for 2023.
I think we've memory hold how bad Rogers is decline and Green Bay was. And I think we're remembering the Aaron Rodgers who the year after they draft Jordan Love and the year after in two years after that goes back to back
MVPs with a chip on his shoulder. I don't know that Achilles tear 41 year old Aaron Rodgers has the ability to do that because he hasn't shown that ability for at least three NFL seasons.
But is it going to be enough for you guys if he is just better than Zach Wilson.
I can see it either way. And I want to make a comment based on what you just said especially with the little chaos realm here. I believe with every fiber of my being that Aaron Rodgers getting the shot that Aaron Rodgers has right now has nothing to do with Aaron Rodgers and everything to do with Tom Brady.
If Tom Brady doesn't do what he did into his 40s. Aaron Rodgers get this shot. This has not happened for anyone with without the last name Brady or Montana.
So you know they have more against everything on him. Everything. This is the bed it all on red beer for the jets. So I my my immediate response is it better work because they have no choice.
What I think will eventually see is a little bit of bet hedging. I thought the jets made a really smart decision in drafting Malachi Corley who I think is just ready to be a starting slot receiver when they go three wide.
I also think that they're going to pass to Breeze Hall.
I do not actually think Garrett Wilson is great and Garrett Wilson will eventually have a match contract. But I think statistically he will actually take a step back this year to accommodate some more West Coast style passing so that they don't have to push Aaron Rodgers arm like that.
But now if they flip it.
What evidence do we have at all that.
Roger's is the guy we're judging Aaron Rodgers on seven preseason passes from a year ago.
Totally. I'm supposed to be a fan of them.
I totally I totally agree. I think you jets fans are in an in an enviable spot because your front office management has put you in this place. Right. And of course you want hope and you want to win. So you've got to kind of hit your wagon to this.
What you have pointed out is a proposition that has not has worked 50 percent of the time in NFL history which is banking on a 40 year old plus QB.
Right. And I'll tell you something worth considering.
If we think about like the video game matrix when someone's rated ninety nine overall and mad because there are ninety nine in every category.
The jets have a general manager who is a savant in drafting.
I would put Joe Douglas's last three drafts up against any GM in football.
And I mean that wholeheartedly. He has not proven himself in the other two categories which is acquiring talent in free agency and firing the correct coaching personnel.
There's been a lot of round pegs and square holes and square pegs and round holes. And you're asking me to basically turn a blind eye to a lot of mismanagement to just assume the jets are going to outperform Miami and Buffalo this year.
That's just my. Will I be thrilled if it happens again. I'm also a Mets fan. And I you know give me all the grimace memorabilia.
So you know I'd be thrilled. But I don't I'm just for right now I reserve the right to be the life serial kid. I guess would be the way I say it.
Jared well said as ever. I think now is a great time to let the rest of the guys hop in here.
So Brandon from Patriots Nation. What type of burning question do you have for our Jets expert Jared.
So Jared if you didn't know I've been trying to convince Dan and JJ to turn this into a fantasy football podcast for quite some time.
So I'm asking this question for very selfish reasons and for all of the Buffalo bread listeners that also play fantasy football is Garrett Wilson going to be hyper targeted by Aaron Rodgers.
Can we expect him to be a top three wide receiver in either yards or receptions. Please give me some good news.
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yards. Yards. No receptions. No. But touchdowns. Hard possibility on the saving grace of Aaron Rodgers entire career as the back shoulder fade right.
Right. And Garrett Garrett Wilson maybe had four touchdown receptions last year that no other receiver would have had all the horrible Zach Wilson back shoulder fade attempts that there was like what's that old phrase like snatching victory from the jaws of defeat touchdown.
Including the bills put away play. So I I think he is going to be one of the prime fantasy end zone targets. But it's so hard for me to see him being a consistent downfield threat.
So I'm sorry. No it's OK. I'm just hoping he has this chip on his shoulder from last season and he just becomes Aaron Rodgers go to. That's that's what I'm hoping for.
I think I see this more frequently in basketball style contracts and football but like the type of person that can be as good as they can be in a bad system and then still get the max deal because everyone is like we understand why your stats aren't where you know they would be if they were in a different fit sort of thing.
I think that's going to be the story of Garrett Wilson's 2024. He's without question a top five receiver in football. I just don't know if statistics will reflect that.
They just can't they can't use Breece Hall the way that they did last season and expect him to stay healthy or to or to get long term work out of him.
They're going to lose him to a trade or something else if they try to abuse him the way that they did last year.
Couldn't agree more could not agree more.
All right Steve you're up next. What do you want to ask for a good friend Jared.
Well before I dive into my question you confirmed a couple things for me based off of this slight hyper optimism.
I was going to comment your Jets fan you got to be a Mets fan because only Mets fan share that same optimism every single year.
Oh this is going to be our year this is going to be our year and it never turns out to be that year.
So from a Philly's fan to a Mets fan there it is.
So I have the one thing I would take pride in is I was from a small contingent of Mets and Jets fans who were very respectful of opposing teams.
I believe with every fiber of my being that every other team in every sport is managed better than the teams I like.
So it's very easy to get along with other people true story.
Last year on my birthday I was in Philly watching a Mets Phillies game befriending a Phillies fan whose birthday was the same as mine and was at a Phillies game for his birthday.
So that's my take.
I am I am I can't be optimistic after the last 30 years of my life.
Sports fandom everything else is going great but you know.
Amazing rivalries and friendships all coming together.
Now I welcome any question you have.
Well my question is pretty simple from one Phillies from one Philly sports team to the next.
So the Eagles Hasan Reddick came over to the Jets.
He's not too happy with contract stuff.
Is that a distraction?
Does it linger over?
What's what are your takes?
When the answer is backwards.
Does it have a shot at lingering?
Yeah maybe like a week or two because I know how contract negotiation works and they don't want to pay him.
But I actually don't think it's going to be much of a distraction because he and his agent are right and the Jets are desperate.
There is there is no option where he is not signed.
There is no option where he makes it to the threshold where he actually has to sit out the year or sustains major penalties for the players union.
There's no way because again he and his agent know that the Jets are all in and he's he's going to get his money.
They have no choice and he knows they have no choice which is why.
Hey with the way football contracts work listen to what we were just saying about Breece Hall right.
So but we can't on one side say they're going to kill this man on national television in his rookie contract.
And on the other hand say but we shouldn't pay him son right.
So it's coming.
It's and I don't think it's going to be much of a distraction at all because I think the Jets fan base get it.
So it's just a little bit of hype playing hardball.
It gets done but makes it look good right.
100% yeah 100%.
Awesome.
All right final question this one's coming directly from JJ and it speaks to the degenerate gambling streak we have on this podcast.
So from JJ over under Jared on Total Games missed due to injury by Tyron Smith Morgan Moses Aaron Rodgers and Mike Williams as we alluded to in the beginning of this little segment here.
Yes bolstered the lineup with a lot of great talent but a lot of injury prone talent.
So was your over under on Total Games missed due to injury and it should be noted none of these players we mentioned have played a full NFL season in a few years.
And I'm so with that let me ask combined I assume I'm giving you a number for all them combined.
Correct.
This is this is how you can get a real idea of where my head is right now with the way I answer this question.
I set the I set the over under at 18 and a half.
18 and a half divided by one two three four five players.
So you're thinking somewhere between like four to five four to five games missed for each.
We're budgeting we're budgeting a quarter of the season per human.
Yeah.
I actually think that's pretty reasonable.
I would have I'd have a hard time taking that over because I feel like if it's the over for you.
That's a disaster season and you guys are right back to where we were last year.
Perhaps is incredible play on word.
But if it's the over it's over.
This is why we love you.
It's it's and it's over for everybody dude.
It is going to be a professional bloodbath.
It's a brain wipe in New York.
Absolutely everybody with any memory of this iteration of the Jets is gone.
Absolutely.
All right.
Can't wait man.
Can't wait.
He says holding back tears.
I love it.
All right.
Cool.
All right.
Moving on to the fins.
All right.
Steve you you all I think had an off season that mirror the bills in this way.
Each of our respective squads were up against the salary cap and we each either had to say goodbye to or not be in the game for keeping some guys that we had drafted and brought up through the system.
Most notably I think for you all Van Ginkel and Wilkins.
Right.
However there were some very notable positive moments for your Dolphins this off season.
You brought in some veteran help on some limited contracts including forever Buffalo Bills Warrior Jordan Poyer helps solidify safety with Javon Holland.
You've got a new and I would say up in coming DC and Anthony Weaver.
He comes from that Mike McDonald tree from Baltimore.
Right. I think this guy is going to have really great play calling chops even though he's the third different DC in three years under Mike McDaniel.
I think he's got a really good shot to be the one that sticks and then Jalen Waddle the Penguin Waddle gets extended.
He gets his extension.
You guys end up keeping one of the key offensive pieces that has built this era of greatest show on any turf offense in Miami.
So why Steve with all that going on.
William Dolphins finally win the AFC East under one Mike McDaniel.
All right. So let me start off with this.
It has been 18,457 days since the Miami Dolphins last won a Super Bowl.
And I'm here to say I'm not just a stock talking AFC East. I'm here to say tonight on February 9th, 2025.
That ends.
I think we are going to take the AFC East this year.
We're going to the Super Bowl.
That's my bold prediction right now.
You are hitting that hopey.
I am my friend.
I'm smoking what Aaron Rodgers is giving to even put that into the atmosphere.
That is first off, you have no sympathy from Bill's fans because you know how many days it's been since we've never won a Super Bowl.
That's true.
I'll tell you it's been since the 60s.
I was negative 10 the last time they won a Super Bowl.
The Dolphins.
That's incredible.
I'm going to die and maybe not say it.
There we go.
But no by all means.
And I am fully and wholly prepared to eat my words come February, March when we do a postseason recap.
And I'm here to say, you know what, they went, you know, tenants, tenants six or 10 and eight or whatever, and they missed the playoffs again.
You know, I'm fully prepared for that.
But I got that.
I got that that eternal optimism.
Um, but I'm also really, really, really, what's that teach me how to be optimistic.
You got it.
But I am really, really high on to a gets extended at some point this preseason.
I do.
I don't think it's the contract he expected or the dolphins necessarily want to give.
But I think they get a they get a deal done this preseason yet.
Um, and I am really high.
I'm going to throw this this next thing out to chop up, chop Robinson.
Next, Micah Parsons came from Penn State.
I mean, you just look at, you know what, I am, I am, I am hopeful.
New defensive coordinator.
Um, look at the Ravens defense last few years.
Uh, they've been they've been studs, you know, and so he comes down here.
Uh, Vic Fangio, you know what, he didn't want to be there.
The players didn't want them there.
It was just a bad mix.
Um, but I have hope for, for Weaver.
I have hope for this defense that they can play through it through the injuries that they sustained last season.
Um, you know, till some of our regular starters get healthy.
But I think chop Robinson is going to be one of those guys that all of a sudden just, you know, emerges and they're like, where did this come from?
So I am, I'm up here right now.
I almost don't even want to ask you why they won't win because I feel like it's going to ruin the whole vibe of what just happened.
That was like, like honestly, on this podcast, sir, you're now a made man to bring those, you know, those takes from day one.
Oh my God.
I realized a few times I've been on here that I've been very conservative, very mediocre about the dolphins prospects and where we're headed.
And you know what, we just got it.
We just got to go up here.
I love it.
I freaking love it.
And you guys are going to need chop Robinson to play early often and well because chub and Phillips are both coming back from, I mean, listen, two year injuries, right?
That's really what happened to them at the end of the year.
I think that was, was chub and Achilles and, and Phillips and ACL or do I have that flip flopped?
What was that?
I think that's right.
Yeah.
So the ACL as we saw with Von Miller, that's a two year recovery.
So, um, yeah, so you're going to need chop to show up.
Um, man, I wish JJ was here.
He had such strong feelings about chop Robinson pre draft in the other direction.
Um, beautiful.
So I, I almost hate to ask because I don't want to bring down your mood, but is there a scenario where they don't win?
Win it all.
Exactly what we saw this past season.
Injury, the, the late part of the season, the last five, six weeks to that offensive line yet again.
Um, and what concerns me the most too is our schedule the last few weeks, three of the last four games are road games.
Um, I believe Texans jets and Browns.
They close out the season away.
You're talking about going to Cleveland in December.
In January, I think it's early January, we go to New York.
Um, we don't do well in cold weather.
You know, those last few games, we just don't, and we're going to Houston, but I mean, they're, they're an AFC powerhouse.
They can absolutely hold their own.
We saw that last year and I know by the way, that fourth game is at home against the 49ers.
You know, and so that little stretch right there, I think is what's going to hold us back.
If, if we're not healthy.
It really is amazing how every season the way your guy's schedule shapes up, because it's always softballs in the beginning of the year.
Then at the end, it's this murderers row for you against cold weather teams or teams that have playoff aspirations.
And I think that's the thing, like the vibes in Miami have been immaculate.
But I think again, what the bills and the dolphin share in common is that I feel like McDermott is on a hotter seat than Buffalo media are willing to dig into.
I feel like McDaniel, while his seat may not be as warm, people are no longer going to be impressed by a 70 point win against the Broncos.
They're going to want to see the Miami Dolphins and this Mike McDaniel offense finally overcome a good defense and beat a good team.
The hallmark of McDaniel era has been win the softball games, but then lose the real competitive games.
And I think it's going to be really important for McDaniel to flip that narrative this year and see what kind of wrinkles he adds to the offense to do it.
But you noted a pretty big Achilles heel with this team and it's the O line and it's been a problem year after year.
And you guys lost even more talent this year from it and replaced it with I would I would I believe to be sub average replacements.
It is wild to me that you all and by you all I mean McDaniel is so confident that speed will win on the outside in the skill positions that you don't even need an offensive line to protect your QB because you're getting the ball out so quickly.
So it's going to be fascinating to see what happens there for sure.
Speed. All right, Steve. Oh God.
Speed only works when Tyree kill doesn't get injured against the Titans and has a bum ankle for the rest of the season.
Yeah, we're going to we're going to touch on that as we get to the lightning round for you here.
All right, so questions from the friends of the pod Brandon, you're up.
Yeah, so I thought it was super interesting that the dolphins tied with the Niners. And I believe the the Lions for the most rushing touchdowns in 2023.
Again, the fantasy in me says, or he tells me to say that a Chan was, you know, the the story of 2023.
So will the dolphins now with the addition of another very exciting running back in Jalen Reich, will they be number one in touchdown rushing touchdowns scored this upcoming season?
I don't.
I don't. I think they're going to rely on the past first.
They're going to do what they've always done. And primarily that reason is the offensive line.
And McDaniel just liking to whoever has the hot hand. But if you don't have the offensive line, then a hot hand running back doesn't really matter a full lot.
Unless they're, you know, getting quick outs, you know, screens, you know, out from two of, you know, which would be passing touchdowns.
So I wouldn't. I don't think that they'll be first in rushing touchdown this year.
Interesting. Interesting. Bold take for a squad that's been really dominant in the run game and it's been kind of the hallmark of Mike McDaniel's offense.
But I think you're right, right?
I think I think Tua has something to prove this year.
Yeah, you know.
No, I think you're 100% right.
All right, Jared, your turn, sir.
Because of the way that the dolphin season ended last year, albeit losing the playoffs to the inevitable Super Bowl championship, we have four games consecutively where there's 22 points scored or less after being the super high uptain offense.
Yes, injuries are a part of it.
But now I must ask the obligatory sports pundit question.
Has Mike McDaniel's offense been figured out?
And do you see any potential adjustments to counter what it looked like when they played good defenses down the stretch?
I think to an extent, his offense has been figured out.
I think he's an incredibly smart coach and so I would think coming into this year, if he realizes that, that things change.
That those looks that they may have seen and figured out last year, they may not be able to this year or at least so long as Tyreek and Jaylin Waddle are healthy, that they can get that extra step and beat those guys.
But a lot of, you know, all boiled down to, as soon as we got injured, they just started stuffing the box.
Hill wasn't the same. They just stuffed the box in one after two and those guys couldn't keep up.
So has he been figured out? I think last year he got figured out.
Because again, that murderers row the last few games.
You're talking, you know, the best of the best with teams with coaching and everything.
And so they knew the schemes.
And that's exactly what to expect. And it was a far more slower offense than what it had been.
It's actually a nice dove tail into our question here for you.
We've noted the Tyreek Hill has ended the past two seasons, but seasons banged up.
He is aging. He is still cheetah muscle hamster.
But for speed wide receivers, the first thing that goes is their speed.
So what do you see the dolphins doing this year and how do they adapt if Tyreek is indeed sidelined with serious injury or begins to decline on a speed and slows down?
I mean, I've always been very high on Jaylen Waddle, very high on him.
And I wish he got more looks.
And if if Tyreek speed ever becomes an issue.
How do they use him differently, you know, as a little more of a decoy or whatever.
But one thing that concerned me the most more about Tyreek than his speed last year at the end of last year, the number of drops he had critical drops, you know, touch downs like it held.
I think there were two or three critical ones in the end zone, or at least he was wide open and could have just ran into for a touchdown and he dropped the pass.
Those are momentum killers.
So for me, he can still torch nearly anyone in the secondary, but his hands have to remain steady.
Fair stuff. Fair stuff.
All right. Now it is the moment you have all been waiting for.
We're gonna you're gonna have at the beloved Buffalo Bills, the subject that reigns supreme on this podcast all season.
So couple of offseason highlights for the Buffalo Bills.
Yes, we all know about the the bloodbath of a veteran laden roster that we have been rolling out there for the past few years.
Now we are going to be in a position where we've got to use a lot of younger players.
And I think the coaching staff is a highlight of the offseason was developed and brought into a place where it is a crew that is ready to work with younger guys.
And this is no respect to the John Butler's and the Leslie Frazier's who were here before.
These are outstanding coaches, outstanding men, outstanding leaders.
They were at their stages of career simply more used to working with veteran-related squads, guys that they could get to respond to them.
I mean, look no further than the Kyler Elam Butler saga that has been unpacked since Butler left the team.
All right. So they bring in what I like to think of as a youth movement of coaches.
You got Joe Brady. You've got Bobby Babich and up and coming defensive mind who interviewed for multiple defensive coordinator jobs this year, including the Miami Dolphins.
And then you bring in a guy like Jamil Adai who coming from a collegiate background, secondary coach, cornerbacks coach, knows how to work with young athletic players.
They've had a lot of athletic studs in Miami in the secondary.
And this is a guy that knows how to mold those guys.
Then they're going to need it because it's an exceptionally young secondary.
So I love the coaching youth movement.
I love the fact that the defense is just going to get healthy, hopefully.
Vaughn Miller and his now second year coming off of that ACL tear looks to be a bit quicker in training camp.
We've got Matt Milano, also known in this podcast, belovedly is Bobby Boucher back in that off ball linebacker spot as well.
The defense getting healthy.
Rizul Douglas, Christian Benford, hopefully getting healthy in the off season.
There's a lot to like about the defense and where it's going to be.
And we know McDermott can coach it.
And I'm just stoked to see what a full season of Joe Brady, full off season of Joe Brady looks like.
Early reports from camp are that the bills are using a ton of motion, a ton of offensive shifts, a lot of deception.
I think it's going to be stuff that's going to look a lot like what Miami has done over the past couple of years.
But the bulk in the size that they have up front on that offensive line, I'm hoping in this Brady scheme, they can really dominate with some bully ball this year.
So all that being said, here is the reason why your Buffalo bills will take in their fifth.
consecutive AFC East championship for JJ.
It was three words, Joshua Patrick Allen.
And the reality is, is Josh Allen for whatever ESPN wants to say about the Super Bowl window closing and all this other nonsense.
He is a guy who and there's maybe only a handful of Cubies in the league raises your wind floor to nine or 10 games.
And when you've got that on the roster, so long as he stays healthy, your team always has a fighting chance in the division, right?
Add to the fact that he has played particularly well against division rivals with the exception of the New York Juts.
And it bodes well for head to head matchups this season to my take on why the bills would win as the offense evolves in the way that it needs to.
I went back guys and I watched the AFC division lost to the Chiefs from this past year on NFL Network because I'm a masochist.
And I turned it on in about the second quarter and I got to the third quarter and the bills were on that early quarter drive where it was just run play after run play.
And that offensive line was dominating.
What up until that point had been one of the best defensive lines in the league in the Kansas City Chiefs.
And I saw that and I'm like, I see the vision and where it fell apart for the bills is that once the Chiefs condensed their formations and forced the bills to win over the top, they couldn't.
So if the bills win, it's because Joe Brady has figured out a way to use some of these weapons over the top and Curtis Samuel don't sleep on Clal Shakir.
He's not just a slot possession guy.
He's got real speed downfield.
And of course we've got the Josh Allen of wide receiver prospects and Keon Coleman on the squad too.
And that dude's catch radius is absolutely nuts.
So if the Buffalo Bills win their fifth consecutive AFC East title, it is because this offense figured out how to beat teams when they finally bring in bring in and load up the box and allow the bills to attack over the top.
The reason that they might lose JJ has got a lot of reasons on here.
He's got new coordinators.
He's got new starters on both sides of the ball.
And something that I think we haven't talked about enough is a football podcast landscape.
Generally, these new kickoff and special team roles, those are going to throw a wrinkle into the season.
I think that's going to shift a lot of close games in a way that we can't really quite predict yet.
So I think all those things they can do account would keep the bills from winning.
I would add one more.
The secondary specifically for the Buffalo Bills.
While I love Benford and love Douglas, the Buffalo Bills chose not to extend Douglas just restructure his contract for this year, which tells me that they see something in him.
Where they might want to move on from him this year.
Christian Benford, their number two DB has been not played a full season since coming into the league as a rookie out of Villanova.
I don't want to put the injury prone tag on him yet, but he plays a very underrated physical style and he gets beat up a lot downfield.
So the depth behind them right now is Jamarcus Ingram and Kair Elam.
Add to that, you lose our beloved Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde.
You bring in a rookie athletic freak and cold Bishop, but then you try to patch the other safety positions together with a Mike Edwards here, a Taylor wrap there.
I think depth overall on the secondary and the bills vulnerability to be attacked through the air as a result, I think is going to be a reason that holds them back from winning the East this year.
All right.
I'm ready for you guys.
So let's hit the lightning round Brandon.
You first, sir.
Yeah, so lots of young guys, new talent on offense.
I checked the Vegas line.
They have Josh Allen at 480 rushing yards.
Josh Allen, as we've talked about is someone that when the going gets tough puts it all on himself, tries to do it all alone.
So over under 480 rushing yards for Josh Allen this season.
Oh, God, I always look like a dumbass after I answer these questions.
I'm going to say under and here's the reason why Brady.
I think it was no worthy ran Allen intentionally last year because he was still finding his way into the scheme that he wanted.
I think this season they're going to focus on the run game, but it's going to be a more traditional style run game at running back.
And I think they want Allen to play in the pocket more not to like harness that wild freak energy that makes him what he is.
But because I think they finally have a full scheme and an offensive roster built out exactly the way Brady wants it to run the run heavy scheme he wants without having to put Allen at risk so much.
I think homeboy is still going to take off.
Absolutely.
And I've got questions about the offensive line restructure.
So that could easily be over Justin Justin unscripted Josh scrambles this season.
But I want to say under and I'm not going to take I would say much on right say like 400 or 450 or 450 yards is realistic.
But if it's anything approaching 500 yards, I think that means something in the Brady scheme or the offensive line protection is broken.
All right, who is next Jared?
What do you got for me?
I'm ready for you.
Bring it.
So it's funny you're talking about the jets earlier.
If they go down there all going down together.
Something that you alluded to earlier in the podcast was your thought that Sean McDermott is low key on the hot seat and I can't agree with it with you.
Very rarely do you see these types of rebuilds happen while the head coach stays put.
And I know middle management enough to know that there's some message sending involved in that.
So my question for you is what threshold needs to be cleared by this bills team for Sean McDermott to keep his job?
Oh, I mean, you got to make it past the divisional round and you've got to beat the chiefs when you cross paths with them.
Right.
I mean, the the the label that's been put on McDermott is that he's Marty Schadenheimer.
And I don't think he's Marty Schadenheimer.
I think he's going to get one eventually.
It remains a question of this is the scene where he gets one.
Of course, I want it to be in Buffalo, but he reminds me more of a Tony Dungey.
And when you remember when he left years ago, Tampa Bay turned it over to John Gruden.
John Gruden took a turnkey ready team and won a Super Bowl right away with it.
Dungey eventually got his in Indianapolis and he deserved it.
And I think McDermott has had way more playoff coaching success than Marty Schadenheimer has.
But I think where he is at this stage in his career, it's Tony Dungey.
And Tony Dungey got fired with a roster that was good enough to win the Super Bowl that he at that stage in his coaching career didn't know how to unlock.
I think if McDermott stumbles again against the chiefs, regardless of the round, or this is another divisional round flame out against the Bangles,
against the Ravens, another AFC rival, I think there's going to be a serious consideration to saying goodbye to McDermott,
especially with a guy like Mike Rable, who is sitting out there, who's had a track record of winning with a hell of a lot less than what McDermott has had on the roster in his career.
I just think we're in this unique situation where there's not only the Ben Johnson's of the world and the Bobby Sloaks of the world and these up and coming offence of mind sprouting up everywhere.
But you've got some veteran coaches that didn't get gigs that are sitting on the sideline waiting to pounce on a turnkey ready team like the bills are.
I think if McDermott does not beat the chiefs or make it into at least the AFC championship, I do think there's serious, serious consideration to him losing his job.
All right, Steve, what do you got?
I actually came up with a couple of things, but one thought I just thought of is it's quite interesting to comparison to Marty Schottenheimer, given the bills need to get over the hump against the chiefs and who did Marty Schottenheimer most coach with the chiefs.
Yeah, but there it is.
So my question is largely based on my prediction of the dolphins winning the Super Bowl and that that revolves around the bills as a wildcard team going into Kansas City to beat the chiefs.
So my question is, what will it take to get over that playoff hump against the Kansas City chiefs?
Oh, dear God.
Oh, this is painful.
If I had that answer, I would be coaching the bills.
I mean, let's look at their history.
I think I think in the COVID year, the AFC championship game that they played against the chiefs overmatch, they were not ready.
Allen was not mature enough to win a game like that.
Spags knew how to get into his head.
And we saw it with some of the chippiness of that game.
The next time they lose to the chiefs, the 13 seconds game, I would say, don't play 12 yards off of Tyree Kill.
And you probably win that game, right?
And then last season, if you're healthy, you know what I mean?
Like it's been like, it's been the same team.
Yes, but it's happened a different way every single time.
Like if Matt Milano and Terrell Bernard are in that game and not AJ Klein and Dorian Williams.
I mean, Mahomes doesn't do what he does in the middle of the field in the passing game with a deficient wide receiver group in Buffalo last year.
So I think it's a mix.
Like it's a team that can beat the chiefs.
It's a team that knows how to beat the chiefs.
I honest to God think they just need all of it to come together at once for the first time in the McDermott era.
Health needs to come together. McDermott needs to stop overthinking a lot of the decisions that he makes in fourth quarter situations.
We saw great improvement with that last year after that debacle against the Eagles in overtime.
If those things coincide and we get a lucid, rational McDermott coaching in close game situations and we've got our dudes against their dudes, I think that's enough.
I really do think that's enough. And I hate to oversimplify it in that way, but I think that's all it takes.
It's just never come together for the Bills all at once when they play the Chiefs.
One other quick question. You are super high on the Bills' offensive line.
Do we see a version of the push push this year for the Bills?
That's interesting because that's actually been a thing that a lot of Buffalo Bills media have been talking about.
Why don't the Bills implement something like that? And there have been points where they tried, right?
And the reason I think they don't do it more, it's simply because Allen is such a tall upright target.
Like that's a dude whose best running is in the open field when he can get up like a little Tonka truck and get up a good amount of speed and then defenders just bounce off of him, right?
Whereas if you're asking a six foot whatever giant to duck under another six foot whatever giant, right?
Like he's upright for too long, I think for that to work.
We saw that a couple of years ago where he slipped at the line of scrimmage against Tennessee.
You would think a guy as tall as Josh Allen could simply lay down and get a first down, but there's a lot more to that push push factor.
I think in Philly, it'll be interesting to see if they run this without Kelsey there.
They had the perfect center to run that system, but the perfectly tuned and sized QB to run it as well.
I just think Allen's too big if that makes any sense, right?
And that seems counterintuitive because again, he should be able to lay down and get the first.
But when you got a big guy being attacked by other big guys and it's upright for too long, it makes it too easy for the defense.
Well, when Philly's success largely relied on the running backs picking up Jalen Perz and throwing him across the line so many times, right?
Yeah, he's tiny.
So I don't know how many of your running backs can pick up Josh Allen to do that, right?
It would actually, that'd be hilarious training camp contest.
Who can pick up and carry Josh Allen the farthest?
That would be incredible.
All right, cool.
Awesome guys.
Awesome.
Listen, we're about to wrap things up here.
Solid stuff.
Epic way to kick off the season, but it would not be a Buffalo Bread podcast without prediction sure to go wrong.
So, and I promise we will be haunted by all of these choices later on.
So here it is.
Prediction sure to go wrong.
Quick take from each of you.
Give us a non-AFC East team that you think will win the Super Bowl this year.
From JJ, that team is the Detroit Lions.
He really loves what they built.
They've retained most of their starters.
They've retained their coaching staff, including their coordinators, which is a really big deal.
And they feel good about the QB they have.
So all in all, he is thinking that the Detroit Lions are a non-AFC East team to watch win the Super Bowl this year.
Let's see, Brandon, what about you?
Not to make you salty, but I would have to go with the Houston Texans.
They got a brand new shiny weapon over there that I think is going to do a lot of great work for them.
He's going to have really good chemistry with a star quarterback and CJ Stroud.
A lot of confidence after that rookie season.
So I think it's going to have to be the Texans.
That is a super deep cut.
Thank you for that.
All right, Steve, let's kick it over to you.
I'm sticking close to home.
I think with the addition of Derek Henry, a healthy running back for the Baltimore Ravens that gets them out.
Over the hump and they take the Super Bowl.
Wow, I love it.
My pick here is the LA Rams.
They've got questions on defense, but they got a ton of youth on the defensive line.
And I love where that offense is at.
I mean, tell me that you wouldn't love to have a healthy Matthew Stafford, top five,
Russia and Kyron Williams, Cooper Cup, Pukinakua and a Marcus Robinson, plus a Tyler Higbee on your offense.
That feels like a squad that's ready to rock and roll.
And despite the 49ers success throughout the course of the year last year,
McVeigh really does seem to have Kyle Shanahan's number in a lot of ways.
So I think that could be really interesting.
I think the Rams have a real shot this season if that youthful defense can play above its floor.
So yeah, awesome.
I'm sure all of that will be correct.
We're all right.
All of those teams will win the Super Bowl.
Nothing about that will be regrettable at all.
But I'll tell you what's not regrettable.
Kicking off this year's football season with you three fine gentlemen.
Thank you for joining the pod.
We appreciate it.
For all of you listening at home, like, share and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts,
Google Apple Spotify and as always, go bills.
Thank you.