Alright, welcome back to the Buffalo Bread Podcast.
JJ here with me as always is Dan and it has been another busy news week.
Probably up to the merit of the early offseason Black Wednesday when the Buffalo Bills lost
several captains.
Well, another one is walking out the door.
Stefan Diggs traded to the Houston Texans, the Bills get back a 2, a second round pick,
they send a 5 and a 6, one in this year and one in next year, and they have to eat 31
million dollars in deadcap in 2024, then cap relief shows up in about 27 million next year
that they would have otherwise been on the books for with Stefan Diggs if he had stayed.
Where are you at with this, my friend?
I have a lot of complex feelings at this particular moment right now, JJ.
And again, glad we are not a reaction pod that we will be dropping this pod a day earlier
than we normally do.
Like hopefully hitting that sweet step up between when all the immediate reaction is done and
then get into more of the processing and irrational way that some of our listeners are looking
for.
All that being said, though, my thought when it first happened was the bills.
And this is the scary part.
The bills don't think they're good enough to compete in 2024.
You tolerate a guy like Stefan Diggs, who I listen will go down in this era as one of
my favorite bills, maybe one of my favorite bills of all time for what he did for the
turnaround of this franchise, right?
But you tolerate a guy that communicates like digs for only so long and only in a certain
situation.
And that situation is usually a winning situation because winning is the best deodorant.
The bills moving on and eating the level of dead cap money that they are eating from
this particular deal tells me that they did not believe they would have a sustainable
winning roster heading into 2024.
And it made digs and it made the necessity to take this dead cap medicine now an imperative
for them.
So that was where my head first went was, oh, being isn't throwing up the white flag,
but he is signaling to everybody, this is like a roster reset akin to what we experienced
in 2018.
And that as a result of going through that reset, a guy like digs didn't help the process.
That was my immediate reaction.
And then JJ will dig into more and more of kind of like what I think the cap mechanics
behind this mean, what I think the long term roster build means.
And even the clues that I think this tells us about the type of offense that the bills
are going to run moving forward here, because I think we're not just in a roster transition
point.
We are in a scheme and philosophical transition point for Buffalo Bill's football and what
it means specifically for the offense to.
So all of that stuff and more.
Yeah, absolutely, and I think that, you know, if this if there was a book that was written
about this offseason, the subtitle would be younger and cheaper, right?
Like it younger and cheaper at the expense of almost anything, because interesting JJ,
because that is an admission statement on my resume when I go out competing for younger
and cheaper.
I'm younger and cheaper.
Yeah, so I don't feel younger anymore.
But I'm definitely cheap, but regardless of all that, we're so in our feelings.
I know, it's not a reaction pod.
Get it together.
No, be professional.
But the digs move to me, it clearly I mean, everybody's in the immediate aftermath, people
were like, what, you got worse, you had a huge amount of dead cap, you had to give away
picks to get a second, you know, kind of all of these things that and I agree, I think
I was even going back and forth with with Greg Thompson on Twitter, or X, and I respect
most everything that Greg Thompson does.
But he was super hard in his feelings about this being an absolutely dog shit business
move and like a really bad and not trusting Brandon Bean anymore and all this.
And like the point I was trying to make it I've been trying to make this with a number
of people that I've been engaging with online is that my immediate response to this was that
there is something that we do not know about the mechanism for this trade.
We have Joe Nixon coming out talking about digs, talking to the Houston Texans for weeks
about coming being traded down there.
We have Brandon Bean in his press conference, refusing to directly answer the question if
Stefan Diggs demanded a trade.
We have the fact that Josh Allen and Stefan Diggs have cooled off in the past two off
seasons, they don't see each other in the off season, they don't seem to do the things
that friends do in the off season like they did the first two seasons that that digs was
with the bills.
And then on top of it we have the chirping of Diggs brother, the fact that he's not
outwardly crushing that the fact that he sends all these coy tweets, and you know, talks
shit a little bit passively about Josh Allen's success being all his you know doing.
And so it's a matter of the thing I got into was, yes, it's a it seems on the face value
of terrible trade the dead cap is massive, the return on investment is minimal.
But the way I see it is if digs force their hand, and Brandon Bean was sort of in a ultimatum
situation.
This was probably it's sort of a magnificent return if his choice was dig sits or you trade
him to get anything.
You know, because I mean we think about players like a Murray Cooper went for a fifth and
a sixth in his prime younger than digs with better production.
Keenan Allen just went for a fourth right.
And that's what I'm saying is they basically they bought high for a first round pick and
like I you cannot hold it against the trade that that pick became Justin Jefferson because
nobody knew just one Jefferson Justin Jefferson would drop to 22 in that draft or raised
to 22 his draft stock was not as a top 10 pick.
And to nobody knew that Justin Jefferson would become you know the alpha dog wide receiver
in the league.
So you can't really you know you can't look at that thing with hindsight and claim that
oh well the bill should have just picked Justin Jefferson there was no guarantee of that there
was a guarantee of Stefan digs being a rising talent in his mid 20s.
The bills traded a first overall or first round pick in the later part of the first
round to get four years of incredible top three wide receiver production and a veteran
in the room to help Josh Allen a young QB develop into a captain and leader in this on
the team.
And then they traded that asset again they paid a boatload of money and I think that
the extension was poorly timed and they were really kind of eating shit because of it.
But then they trade that asset away for a second uphicks so they essentially drop they
just traded a one for a two and then got four years of wide receiver production had to pay
a bunch of money.
And I don't think I think that everybody you know bills fans like oh they paid all this
money what do you care like I don't care how much Pagula pays anybody like I don't actually
care like because I mean I get that using those resources for another player is more
valuable than having them dead on the cap.
I understand that but it's not my money right like not directly I'm not a season ticket
holder and I know some of you are and you might be like well they're mismanaging my
money there's a lot more money in the league you know the team yields 500 million dollars
plus per year it's not ticket revenue it's TV money mostly.
Yeah.
Taking in totality right or taking individually rather the trade at face value given everything
around it in the context is as about of a good of a return as you will get for a wide
receiver entering their age 31 season after one of their worst years of production of
their career right and we can debate we can go back and forth about why that production
drop off for digs happened a lot of pods have chosen to focus on that it's kind of
like the reason why they're they're stowing some of their their pessimism because well
digs was on the decline anyway that listen that may very well be true he could also have
been injured it could also have been about Brady's scheme it could have been any number
of things right.
So I think on at face value you look at the trade the dead cap sucks right for this year
because this year it even further limits your ability to put around a competitive team around
your young QB who will not be so young in a couple of years Josh Allen is going to be
what 28 heading into the season right.
I think he turns 28 in May I don't I know this is blasphemy I don't know when Josh Allen's
birthday is I should I like I should know that more than I know my kids birthday right
but yeah JJ Google machine that for me but anyway Allen is also approaching his age 30
year by the time this current contract is up he'll be age 31 so I understand the frustration
of a lot of bills fans were saying it is now harder for us to field a competitive team with
a QB who plays an exceptionally physical style of football who is still situated in his prime
now I don't think 2024 is a throwaway year but it is hard to see how the bills are Super
Bowl contenders with the roster as it is currently constructed and now they have hamstrung their
ability to put out a competitive a more competitive roster given the dead cat hit dead cat hit
that they're facing this year get all that anger right all that being said though the
trade at face value was probably the best they could have done for digs at this current
moment now when taken in totality no one was putting a gun in 2022 to Brandon beans had
to extend digs for the amount of money that he did and agreed to these dead cap terms
in the way that he did either this was an unforced error by being and a lot of us had
questions about it when it happened right like it kind of made sense that you want to
further your commitment to your productive somewhat volatile water seever one in that
way at the time him and Alan had a great relationship so at face value it seemed to check a lot
of boxes other than the future other than the future financial implications that that
deal would have he didn't need to do that right he didn't need to extend digs at that
particular moment but chose to so my summation of this trade is that being did an average
job getting out of a situation that was of his own doing right he really kind of created
this situation and he did the best that he could with no leverage to get out of it so
being comes out to me to this okay but like not a mastermind by any stretch of the imagination
he's undoing as we see JJ as he continues to do a lot of his own mistakes a lot of his
unforced errors right this is what he does kicks the can down the road on a lot of these
positions the roster reset we're going through this year should have started in early phases
last year at some of these position groups being done being has not shown the ability
to think with that kind of foresight no and I think that that criticism is accurate I
think to somebody I was communicating with on Facebook summarized it who's actually a
dolphins fan who lives in Buffalo New York but he he had a very a poignant you know he
made a good point it was awfully measured for a dolphins fan who a lot of them are stomping
on the bills right now for all this but it was that you know we don't organize with terror
or we don't we don't negotiate negotiate with terrorists and I think that might have been
the position that being found him in immediately following an all pro season for Stefan Diggs
to go ahead and pay kind of a ridiculous amount of money on an extension when the deal still
had years left and reward an exceptionally productive year for Stefan Diggs to try to
keep a toxic player healthy I think that you know Stefan Diggs has been largely lauded
by guys in the locker room as a good leader a hard worker I think that's all true I think
he gets along with the players that he is on the team with pretty well I think the problem
is when anything goes on you know anything comes undone with Stefan Diggs he immediately
goes into toddler tantrum mode I mean we've seen him blow up at people on the sidelines
you've seen him take plays off after you know if he thinks things are going poorly and
then of course you know he's got his brother chirping on X he's not squashing that he's
again making those passive aggressive tweets and different things like that I think a lot
of it was media overblown but I think a better communicator and a better team player would
have squashed more of it and I also think that Josh Allen went out of his way to praise
Stefan Diggs for his work ethic and his his place on the team and what a good team he
was I barely ever heard that from Stefan Diggs Stefan Diggs would talk about retiring a
Buffalo Bill but he was the last person in the world to praise any other player unprompted
yeah and I think that's a good segue JJ to really kind of dig into the why behind this
trade I think there are a varied amount of reasons why this particular trade happened
when it did and I think the off-field drama probably plays a role but I don't think it
plays the role that a lot of people think it plays right I think there's a lot more at
play here this might have been the the final straw this might have been the the instigation
or the impetus for the trade but I don't think it informed the trade itself overall because
the bills had I think we can we can glean the bills had been fielding offers from teams
they weren't necessarily calling teams about it if the reporting is accurate the Texans
reached out on their own to the bills and then this thing happened in about a 24 hour
period so teams were reaching out to the bills about about Diggs availability and being as
a general manager with multiple roster holes to fill was doing his due diligence and taking
those calls I think JJ this has to do for me more and more with the overall roster
philosophy that the bills are taking on moving forward and I think it's hard to unwed Diggs
drop in production or let's say drop in priority in the offensive scheming from when Dorsey
was was removed and Brady was inserted there is not a lot that we can we can take from
Brady's time as OC in Carolina because it was such a short small sample but there are
a couple of things that have borne out and his limited stint there and his limited stint
and Buffalo is commonalities and one of those things is that he rarely ever schemes for
a feature wide receiver when you go back and look at his one full year is OC in Carolina
DJ Moore who was considered largely their top threat along with Curtis Samuels a solid
number two was like their third most productive wide receiver when it came to total yardage
that was Curtis Samuels best year but he never schemed for a thousand yard wide receiver
he used these guys a very situationally he used Samuel a lot in the backfield and these
funky these funky personnel packages and DJ Moore was primarily their take the top
off deep threat when teams would condense to the short area yardage areas that he was
trying to exploit enter Joe Brady into Buffalo and Stefan Diggs who had been on fire is the
number three overall wide receiver in terms of yardage when before Dorsey was was removed
from the position sees a drop in production sees a drop in usage sees a limited drop in
targets but those targets as we have noted were coming in shorter areas of the field
and then JJ add that to the fact that the deep ball and vertical vertical threat piece
of digs game had all but subsided in 2020 when you take a look at Allen's deep ball
efficiency that was you could see an ascendance and the connection with him and digs in that
regard Allen was completed close to 45% of his passes that year over 1100 yards 12 TDs
on deep balls of 20 or more yards flash forward all the way to 2023 JJ that completion percentage
drops to 35% under 1000 yards at 960 and 8 TDs to 9 INTs now some of that also has to
do with the fact that Gabe Davis was a monstrosity of an inconsistent deep threat for this team
as well but it also has to do with the fact that either by choice or as a result of where
where this team felt like digs was in the progression is his career digs was not the
deep threat that he was when he first came to Buffalo either he wasn't winning with a
lot of separation downfield while his short area quickness and ability to separate was
still there opposing DB's were locking him down the further he went down the field and
we've seen tweets to the surcard luxurious need tweeted about this about things digs
complaining he was getting doubled and Steve was like dude we all got a double you anymore
right so I think whether it was by choice or what the bills were seeing they knew that
they needed a larger deep threat to be a feature of this offense right and they didn't have
it on the roster so were you going to settle for more of the same with digs a wide receiver
who could also be a decline right and then you couple that with with Brady's overall
philosophy where he wants to use these guys more situationally and you could see where
digs was no longer a fit for what this team wants to do I think offensively to me that
seems like the number one reason right digs was no longer a fit for what the scheme is
going to look like.
I think that's absolutely true and I think too that you when you have a player who I
don't think digs is going to handle his decline in production very well anywhere he goes I
don't know if he's going to be an Antonio Brown because I don't think that the severe
mental health issues are there but I do think that he is likely to have a rocky decline in
the latter part of his career because he has proven and this is the thing that I keep coming
back to is people are like well why the bills do this why this why that stuff on digs has
been nothing but great he has a track record of becoming a problem in the locker room for
teams when he is unhappy like that is proven like this is now what it was Kirk Cousins fault
now it's Josh Allen's fault like no the common factor is Stefan digs working his way out
of favor with teams and so I feel like in in Houston he may have a big spark of productivity
but I can tell you it's probably going to be from the slot and it's probably going
to be because the the primary coverage of every opponent and coming against Houston is going
to be trying to shut down Nico Collins and Tank Dell and probably just leaving Stefan
Diggs and one-on-one if they're in man coverage or leaving his zone without extra defenders
angled towards it he might have a spike in production this this coming year and this
is a one-year rental so the bills have basically traded him away for a second and he's only
on contract for one year with Houston I think that's a good return and so you know with
all that said I agree I think that you saw the lat he didn't top 100 yards he hasn't
caught a touchdown in the playoffs since like 2020 and so I don't see the big loss here
I you have to replace 100 catches right but I think that Joe Brady scheme is not about
having one one massive receiver take the lion share of the catches he's going to try to be
distributive he's going to try to target you know the weak spot of the defense and for
that reason I've even cooled a little bit on the trade up for a top tier top four receiver
in this draft I'm sort of in this world of can we get two receivers in the top 100 can
we find a way to get you know three receivers with only one in the top 100 but then two more
between 100 and 200 and sure hit through the darts right yeah absolutely absolutely so
it'll be interesting the draft is going to tell us a lot about what Brady's offensive
philosophy is going to look like depending on how the bills handle that first round I
think a lot of bills fans are clamoring for them to move up in the draft especially if
a guy like neighbors or a dunes a falls I think neighbors is more likely to fall than a dunes
a is but I don't I don't know that they're with all the holes they have created on this
roster and the clear mentality they have set to to get as you said younger and cheaper
I don't know that they give up significant in future draft capital to go get a guy like
Marvin Harrison Jr. or a dunes a or neighbors I think they're going to be more content than
we think to see who falls to them to 28 and if no one falls to them at 28 I think we could
see a second round double dip if Carolina comes Colin with that 33rd overall pick because
they see an OT that they want to take it 28 I think the bills absolutely make that trade
right and then we have said there's likely to be a run on wide receivers in the second
round there could be 11 or even 12 of these wide receivers that come off the board before
the bills hit 60 if you're sitting there in the catbird seat of 23 you're going to get
your pick of that second tier be it a Xavier worthy be an AD Mitchell a Troy Franklin Xavier
Leggett you know we'll wait and see but April is going to tell us a lot not just about how
the bills are going to approach this future roster rebuild but offensively the type of
personnel they're looking for and the clues that it gives us to what Brady's full fledged
scheme is going to look like and JJ that brings me to my next point about why I think this
this trade happened now it's the schematic overhaul and the philosophical overhaul and
offense but it is also too about the financial overhaul that this team needs to undertake
and this is Ben an offseason in beans own words about 2025 cap management they're not giving
up on 2024 though I think we could all agree that it is hard to see a Super Bowl roster
in the making right now for 2024 but bean has been adamant about not kicking future
money down the road to 2025 because as Alan's cap number continues to balloon they want
to have the freedom to spend and the freedom to resign what they hope are going to be lucrative
2024 and lucrative 2025 draft classes so they've valued that future financial freedom and this
digs trade for as much as this dead money cap hit sucks right now in 2024 it takes $27
million completely off the books for 2025 and Stefan digs money so this is it digs is only
now on this team's roster financially this season 2025 and beyond Stefan digs money comes
completely off the books had they designated this as a post June 1 move they could have
only limited the dead cap hit here to $9 million and given themselves more flexibility this
season but then they kick 22 million down the road to 2025 JJ and I just don't think that
is something that was enticing for bean and again it gives me the clue that they don't
think this roster is Super Bowl caliber in 2024 but they are looking to make some future
moves in 2025 so they can maximize the tail end of this Josh Allen Prime window here so
to me it was all about 2025 cap management take your medicine now JJ so that next season
with Josh Allen presumably still in his athletic and player performance prime you can start
to spend some money again next off season well and I think you're absolutely right and
it's the kind of thing it's it's sort of that soft rebuild because I I do believe this is
going to be a competitive team I do believe they have a great opportunity to take the
AFC East I think you know maybe that's the cap going into this early season unless we
have an absolutely outstanding draft class which I think everyone in bills mafia is hoping
for right like okay you've stuff on digs is walked do we now have a distributive method
of you know four players having 50 to 60 catches five players having 60 to 70 catches right
like Josh Allen having an outstanding year of just you know a lot of you know sharing
the wealth because he's not worried and Joe Brady's not worried about scheming digs open
while digs athleticism and deep speed is on a sharp decline because that's what we saw
I mean anybody can you know point to a couple of the long balls that Josh Allen was pushed
off his spot and he under through a little bit but the reality was a lot of those situations
digs coverage was way closer than it had been in years prior a lot of those balls even if
they might not have been perfectly on the mark they were under thrown but digs was in
tight coverage or they were overthrown because digs didn't have the wheels he had had the
years prior and so I think it's going to be interesting to see what kind of happens post
draft and I think that's the biggest thing if I can I'm trying to be very zen about
this I was I was in my like guys bills chat with with a bunch of fellow bills fans and
really the it was the sky is falling chat of a shrug it's gonna suck everything sucks
the bills are gonna just be terrible again we're bad you know and then people being like
baring and beans and 88 why would he do this he didn't get enough back they got fleeced
and I just tried to like kind of slow everybody everyone's role to be like okay like even
if this is a reset this is a front office in an organization that has one they have
seized four years in a row that has always been in the mix that has done things the right
way that has invested in their own young talent when they needed to and don't see the departures
of Davis or digs as a problem I think it was time to reset a couple of positions on
this team and it might hurt it might they might not be as competitive this year but
I think you're absolutely right going into next year with upwards of $60 million under
the cap and then an additional opportunity to clear up another $30 million there could
be like a pretty major contributor and we haven't been in that world since you know the von
Miller signing where where it's like oh my gosh that guy is on the bills team and so
there's an opportunity there and you always overpaying for agency but in some in some
ways it's worth it right and so I'm really interested to see what that looks like and
I do think that this move makes it more likely the bills take more draft picks and try to
keep more of those guys on the roster this year because you can also point to this time
in the offseason versus last year in the offseason I think their roster only has 60 or 70 players
on it last year I think they were closer to 80 and so they are probably trying to plan
for more of those 11 picks you know even if they come out of the draft with nine having
all nine of those players remain on the roster going into the season if not you know the
roster plus practice squad yeah and that's a that's a great segue JJ into talking about
like next steps and how we begin to rebuild this wide receiver room or reconstruct this
wide receiver room and I think free agency and draft are markedly different and what
they offer I think the way to go for the bills is the draft I think there's some cheap veterans
out there I've seen I've seen some bills fans float trades trade 21 for Brandon I you right
trade 21 trade 28 for for T Higgins problem with that is you've got to pay those guys
almost immediately and even with the relief and cap that the bills are are going to have
at their at their disposal in 2025 you're not an inability where you could afford even
maybe the draft capital trade for one of those guys because I'll bet you that regardless
of how the wide receiver market has been shaking out I'll bet you it's going to take a one
this year and a potentially a future two or a handful of future twos to prior rate prior
way either one of those guys from their respective franchises and I just don't think from a draft
capital standpoint it's where the bills want to be I don't think they want to defer future
benefit for young cost controlled talent to bring on someone who can yes absolutely help
immediately I think Brandon I you cause a star right every time I look at that guy on
film dude is open he's just open all the time he gets great separation and I like T Higgins
a lot too but you can't afford to pay contract up front or the draft equity it's going to
take to get either one of those guys when you're in the roster situation and cap situation
the bills are in and then other free agent moves they can make like Tyler Boyd's out
there OBJ is out there but I see those guys more if they're still on the market is maybe
a post draft post June type of signing right especially when the compensatory pick formula
goes away I could see maybe one of those guys coming in to firm out the room but they are
not to me needle movers at this particular point the bills JJ need to do what they haven't
done since the 20 set since the the 2018 draft which is they've got to hit a home run and
we've talked about this the bills have been great at fighting those fifth sixth and seventh
round floor razors right and I would argue that Taryn Johnson and Matt Milano are probably
stars that they have found in the latter rounds but JJ other than Alan they have not hit on
a premium pick and they have not found those ceiling razors in the draft as of yet it is
imperative that they do so this year and next year if they want to keep this window with
Josh Allen open in his physical and athletic prime so to me JJ free agency is not even
on the table for for addressing this need it's got to be the draft yeah and I'm glad
you brought up OBJ Tyler Boyd I think that those those would be players that I think
would come in as insurance policies and and nothing more right like that's it's an insurance
box it's just to like maybe cover a need so the Buffalo bills have not drafted a single
wide receiver higher than the fourth round in their entire brand being era and so I think
that this is a real test it's going to be a real question of whether or not well I guess
it not the being era but in Sean McDermott's time he he got Zay Jones in the second who's
a wide receiver that has stayed in the league as like a wide receiver three but that's not
really you know not speaking about too much and that was not a great year for wide receivers
so Sean McDermott got one in the second Gabe Davis was a fourth round pick Marquez Stevenson
was a sixth Khalil Shakir was a five and he he seems like he might be something special
there's a whole group of Justin shorter stands out there claiming that he's going to be our
wide receiver one with Stefan Diggs leading leaving and I'm to them I just say like why
why didn't he make the field wall you know when Gabe Davis was making no catches for
no yards and Stefan Diggs was getting four for 37 why didn't they elevate Justin shorter
if he was doing everything he needed to do in practice I'm guessing he was just not producing
to a level where he could get on the field so until he does I don't see it and so you
know it'll be very interesting to me if the bills invest top 100 picks on the position
because it's not it's not happened to this juncture in the Brandon being era and it's
it's something that they absolutely have to get right I think that you know I feel pretty
confident about turning you know turning out some quality picks considering they had two
full-time starters and Dalton concave no Cyrus Torrance last year in the draft the prior
year James Cook and Terrell Bernard and Khalil Shakir and the second third and fifth round
all seem like studs as does Christian Benford who's at least a starting CB in the league
if he can stay healthy he's a you know that's an incredibly high value for that position
and so I definitely think they've hit you know the year prior Greg Russo and Spencer Brown
both strong starters DeMar Hamlin decent depth player and really that's what you want you
want to get about 50% of your picks to be able to contribute they need to have another
excellent draft especially in that first second and those three fourth round picks they really
need to hit on all of them yeah man and listen no I think we're a little bit revisionist
when it comes to Brandon Bean's draft history we were literally revisionist like we went
through this whole exercise where we redrafted what we call the lean being years right from
like 20 what 2019 to 2021 or something like that and it was a great exercise to go through
I don't think anyone who looks seriously at beans draft history will say he has failed
to find late round starting caliber players right you bring up Christian Benford though
he's not Patrick Sertan right like he's just not you bring up DeMar Hamlin he's not Minko
Fitzpatrick you know like and that is the the gear to me that Bean needs to find we
always talk in terms JJ about floor and ceiling when it comes to this roster construction
and if we were talking in carpentry terms or general contracting terms Brandon Bean
is maybe the best floor builder I don't know what the technical term for a floor builder
is but he is like the best hardwood floor guy in the New York State general area I
should take this one from you actually right yeah so I'm going yeah no no I'll take let
me do the construction analogy so for this one I think that he's your best framing guy
he he builds a foundation right he's an excellent framing guy he is not the finished specialist
he's not the guy you want to come in and hand carve the flourish on the banisters going
up the stairs the things that make it shiny bright sparkly raise the the sale value of
the house like he he can build you the sturdiest 200 year house that'll stay standing but it's
not going to be the showstopper on the on the block if you know what I'm saying well in
that house needs to have a ceiling and a roof and this is the piece that Bean always seems
to forget right he's so focused on shining those floors and framing out the foundation
of the house that he forgets that it needs a freaking roof to and hitting the roof on
a lot of these draft picks hitting the ceiling with some soup actual superstar caliber players
is not something that Bean has done you could argue since drafting Josh Allen but that's
what other squads have done the chiefs have found their Trent McDuffie the chiefs have
found their Creed Humphrey right when you look at the Baltimore Ravens they've got their
Zay flowers they've got their Mark Andrews they have found these superstars right in the
comparison point to me JJ that a lot of people are making between the chiefs moving on from
Tyree kill on the bills moving on from Stefan Diggs is a false equivalent because the chiefs
got immediate help in the draft that season when they traded Tyree kill that they used
to turn into Trent McDuffie and future superstars the bills don't have that benefit here they've
got to take the ammo that they have and they've really got to find some game changers not
just in this year's draft JJ but in next year's draft as well and that is something we have
yet and I think it's fair to say we have that is something we have yet to see Bean do is
hit consistent home runs in the draft he said a lot of singles he said a lot of doubles I'm
gonna gonna change the baseball analogies because that's my thing right he said a lot
of singles he said a lot of doubles but other than Allen find me the home run because I
don't think there has been one I think the jury is out for the time being but I think
James Cook is probably a home run if we look back at his career in three years and potentially
Dalton Cain those those may be home runs maybe but it's too early right way too early to
know right so beans got to elevate his game yeah in the upcoming draft yeah absolutely
and I think that you know I think the lean bean years as you as you mentioned the 1920
21 draft it's you know it's like at Oliver end of discussion right like that's that but
that's such a good one right yeah and he's not a superstar no he's absolutely not a superstar
he's not you know he's not a Mark Andrews he is literally what you consider an above average
top 15 level starter but he is not Aaron Donald right like and he was picked ninth overall
so I think you're absolutely right it's it's tough to pick in the later round of drafts
but there are other good teams who have been able to turn those picks into top tier talent
and we've seen good talent and we've seen we've got some young exciting talent but I
don't know that we have you know that elite superstar level and so this is it right like
we have 11 picks in the draft do what you got to do bean get us some superstar talent
right fine fine hit a couple of home runs and then consistently hit those singles and
doubles that we know that you do like it wouldn't shock me if out of 11 picks they end up making
nine drafts because I really do think they're going to package a couple of fours to get
up back into the third round especially if they find a player there that they like but
let's say they make nine picks if they hit on five of those and they get one absolute
superstar or immediate contributor out of that on the offensive side of the ball I'm thinking
wide receiver right then it's a good draft but he needs to stack some of these up and
he just hasn't right he just hasn't so JJ to kind of wrap this thing up here we have
talked ad nauseam right about trade targets for the but or not trade targets draft targets
for the Buffalo Bills coming up here this month at the end of April we've talked about
the ad Mitchells we've talked about the Brian Thomas juniors Troy Franklin Xavier Leguette's
we've talked about all of the Jalen pokes right we've gone through all of them does the trade
to you of Stefan Diggs at all alter the way you think they will approach this year's draft
will they package future capital to move up into the top 10 or even the top 12 if say
a Malik neighbors or Roma dunes a falls or is it more likely that they stay pad at 28
and move forward with the wide receiver board as it falls to them what do you think happens
so as we talk about these always context matters I think that only if Malik neighbors Roma
dunes a or Marvin Harrison drops uns you know unsuspectingly to the like eight or beyond
level will they even consider any kind of move I don't believe that Brandon Bean will
move up for anybody else other than those three I just don't I don't see that I think
that maybe a slight move to the like low 20s for Brian Thomas juniors possible but I think
you've said and I've agreed with the fact that I don't see the bills having anyone
else other than Brian Thomas junior in those top three as you know graded round one wide
receiver can't miss prospects and so I wonder you know and and we don't know like there's
always the opportunity that they have Xavier Leggett as number four or number three you
know and so we'll see but if that's the case and all of the draft nicks are right about
it he'll be there at 28 for the bills and they could just snap snap them up so I think
that you know we see it we see aggressive if the board falls I don't think we see what
would be the equivalent of a pre draft trade for the bills to try to get into the top 10
like they did for Josh Allen right like they moved all of the things they needed to to get
up closer to they got to 12 right and then they moved into 10 on draft day within the
top 10 on draft day to seven so I don't see the bills making any sort of preemptive move
to get halfway up with the anticipation of needing to get into the top 10 I think it's
more likely that if somebody if something falls it might be an emergency kind of move
and then if nothing falls it's likely they stay put read their board as it comes to them
and and I'll say this I think it's just as likely that they take an ed rush or at 28
if all four of those guys are gone plus like a D Mitchell and Xavier worthy or something
we are we're weeping we're weeping is I know is Bill's fans but yeah I mean if they stick
to their philosophy of BPA with all of these holes on the roster that to me is a signal
more than anything the 2024 isn't just a reset it's a rebuild year for them if they end up
standing Pat and going edge or going offensive lineman or something like that that to me
says they're building for the future and the 2024 while while they will you're always going
to be competitive when you've got Josh Allen and you've got Sean McDermott calling the
defense which I think now is more likely than ever given the pressure the steam will be
facing you're always going to be competitive with those two things are are in the cards
but if they stand Pat and they go edge round one that tells you the 2024 to them is probably
a bit of a lost season right well a lost season and a season where they are acknowledging
the fact that they have a brand new offensive coordinator in his first full year brand new
defensive coordinator in his first full year both young coaches and they've just let 1300
yards and 100 plus receptions walk out the door so or they've just sent it away like
they sent digs away I think that's the biggest thing is like you let digs go no he probably
wanted to go and you pushed him that way like you sent him away they were happy to accommodate
yes yeah happy to accommodate so yeah so JJ more to come right but anything between now
and draft day is just going to be speculation what we do know now is that the bills are
full blown in roster reset mode and maybe a shade away from all out rebuild heading into
this kid season in 2025 JJ one final thought because it's never too early to make reckless
preseason predictions last season we had the bills when floor at nine and when ceiling
at 11 we came in right at the ceiling because we're we both study this team with a passionate
obsession that few do as it currently constructed right now and assuming they make some moves
in the draft where do you see their when floor being and where do you see their when ceiling
being for 2024 yeah I'm not that I'm not that down on them again Josh Allen factor matters
so much QB in this league matters the most and so I'm in the seven to 10 win range because
I think that that's likely I and you can't you can also discount the fact that they're
getting Matt Milano back they're presumably having a healthy to Quan Jones the defense
looks like it's going to Bernard in in year two as a starter I think the defense looks
like it could be taking a step forward I really like the upgrade of Mike Edwards at one of
the safety spots Taylor wrap is sort of a question mark to me as to whether or not he can what
he'll do with more opportunity but I do see you know I think Benford and Douglas at the
end of the season were the preferred two starters anyway and so I see the defense being solid
the offensive line is a slight downgrade in depth but and for in terms of starting talent
I think it's probably about about the same level and so and then of course James Cook
and Ty Johnson you know Shakir I really like Curtis Samuel as a signing I don't know that
they've gotten markedly or substantially worse on offense I think they've gotten slightly
worse and I think their defense will be slightly better so so I'm I'm still in the seven to
ten range now you I think that's I think that's valid I am in the eight to ten range so floor
to me feels like eight which would be a losing season right and then the ceiling to me feels
like ten but I think ten and the AFC East is muddled as it is right now with the exception
of New England to who knows what the Patriots are doing we got to ask Brandon what the hell
are you guys doing this offseason with all that cap space they still got 40 million in
cap space blows my mind don't they have to don't have to there's a cash limit they have
to pay a certain amount they've got to hit a cash floor absolutely and they'll get there
after they sign their rookie class and maybe bring in OBJ or something like that depending
on what their QB situation looks like but I don't want to get too much into them because
you know we don't want to spoil the Patriots takes for a good friend Brandon right but
um but uh it feels like ten with all the gambles the Jets have taken in the short term injury
riddled aging veteran signings and where the Pats at where the Dolphins are at with their
own mini reset and not not knowing if Tua is their long term guy ten could probably still
get the AFC East but to me that feels like ceiling especially when you're integrating
a lot of unknown young parts so yes yeah so that's our reckless prediction for the month
of April um you know we'll make more reckless predictions as we get closer to the season
in August and September long way to go we have we have a lot more reckless predictions
to make yes point but hopefully bills mafia you found this podcast enlightening somewhat
cathartic um and at the very least informative for where we're all at now with our stuff on
digs feelings uh heading into the season so for all of you uh that are mourning at home
like share and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts google apple spotify and as always
go bills go bills
go bills go bills go bills off
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