Welcome back to the Buffalo Bread podcast. JJ here with Dan as always.
Happy St. Patrick's Day. It is the weekend of St. Patrick's Day Dan and the Buffalo
Bills are mostly resolved with the first wave of free agency. We have a lot of talk
about with the additions to the team. How are you feeling? What's going on and what's
your plans this weekend? My plan this weekend is to hang out with the kids.
Some various St. Paddy's Day activities that are family friendly are happening
in town and outside of that JJ, I think we're just going to spend a day at home.
Rarely do we ever get a weekend because of work and life where me, my wife, the kids
can all be at home for a Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening. So I think we're going to
go out and enjoy that. But JJ, I think heading into this weekend, there are a lot of
questions about what the Bills roster would look like after the first wave of free agency.
Bean, as a result of the Red Wednesday, as Bills fans are starting to call it, did a
great job of clearing cap space for this upcoming year and for future years.
The question was, what were they going to do? They had a couple of internal targets
that I think everybody in Bills fandom knew they wanted to target in AJ Appanazza and
and Dequan Jones. And they were able to successfully sign those two individuals.
They also addressed wide receiver room in a really big JJ with the signing of Curtis Samuel.
And then they bolstered their their depth in a lot of key places where they have suffered
just devastating injuries over the past couple years in the linebacker room with Nicholas Moro.
I think these are smart moves, JJ. These are savvy moves.
They also, though, kind of echo to how the Bills have managed this roster in the past,
which is find those veteran floor razors and for the first, second and third wave of free agency
and then head into the draft being able to pick best player available.
JJ, you and I have both been on the train of wide receiver round one come heller high water.
And while I think wide receivers probably still a priority for the brain trusted Bills drive,
the Curtis Samuel citing to me in particular signals that they are going to go BPA slash need
in the first round, which could be chop Robinson to the Buffalo Bills incoming.
This feels like a move JJ that is giving them an excuse to not go wide receiver in the first round.
Despite the fact that Samuel brings, I think a unique skill set to the team,
but one that they might already have on the roster in a lot of ways.
So JJ, lots to unpack lots of implications for the draft.
Where do you want to start with free agency talk?
So I feel like maybe we just hit it hit the offense.
We split it up like we do so often on the pod with previews and different things like that
where we talk about a side of the ball.
And I want to start then with the offensive line or the offense, offensive side of the ball,
offensive line.
They also resigned David Edwards in that whole kind of shuffle to bring Conor McGover and over to center
with the release of Mitch Morse and then slot David Edwards in.
So that was sort of, you know, of resigning their own situation.
And then beyond that, on the offensive side of the ball, they also resigned Ty Johnson as mentioned
and then added Curtis Samuel.
That's it so far for, you know, the off season for the offense.
Also, I guess, Mitch Trebisky, who I like sort of intentionally left off.
That's not a needle mover for me.
Like, okay, maybe he's a little better than Kyle Allen, but he's still complete trash.
But, you know, two years at 5.25 million, that's just over the minimum veteran salary.
Like, it's okay, it's whatever.
He's probably got the similar body type to Josh Allen to get them by.
But again, if Josh Allen goes down, I think for any extended amount of time this season is pretty cooked as it is.
But with Mitch Trebisky, Ty Johnson as a resigning and then Curtis Samuel as the major addition.
And then Mack Hollins, the minor addition, I think that's, you know, that's where we'll start an offense.
And I don't know, you, you saw, you lobbed up a softball for me with Curtis Samuel open.
But I want to start with all of the other kind of role players and work up to Curtis Samuel.
So yeah, that sounds good to me.
Does that sound good, Dan?
All right.
So Ty Johnson, of course, everybody is pretty favorable for that.
Every one of these signings, Mack Hollins, Ty Johnson, Mitch Trebisky are kind of minimum deals.
They're not going to be very, you know, very massive.
And Dawkins got massive money as the top 10 tackle in the league and so I think that was appropriate for an extension.
But they're all sort of role players.
Ty Johnson's back as the running back to running back three, but I thought he had some juice.
He had some speed.
He definitely looked what we expected to get from Na'Him Ions on the field, on the offense.
I know Na'Him Ions had made contributions on special teams, but I think Ty Johnson showed what we were hoping for a past catching back with some Jews who could get the edge.
Also a little bit of a bully in the middle on occasion.
So I think that's a good resigning.
Of course, Mack Hollins is in the way I explained it in my kind of, you know, friend chat when somebody is like, tell me about the assignments.
Mack Hollins is like Gabe Davis.
If you focused on all the parts of Gabe Davis's game that weren't what his expectations as a WR2 were.
And so he's blocking.
He works in the run game.
He is a four face special teamer.
He's pretty reliable, you know, when it comes to some clutch situations down the field, he had one year with Derek Carr in Las Vegas with the Raiders where he topped, you know, 700 yards and had a solid season as the second wide receiving option in that offense.
So he has it in him, but he's not the probably preferred, you know, outside starter for any team.
But he's just sort of been a solid guy throughout his career.
He's been a captain at like three or four different teams on mostly one year deals, which says a lot for his character and his presence in the locker room.
So I think it's just sort of a general good signing.
It's it's just replacing that Trent Scherfield role, but with a Gabe Davis body type.
Yeah, this is a one to one replacement to Scherfield for me.
And I, you know, in totality, these are signings that help stabilize the roster, which I like overall.
And it is important to keep in mind that because of the bill's financial situation and also because of the way the free agent market was shaking out, there were not a lot of difference makers that the bills could have signed to the offensive side of the ball that would have really moved the needle.
I saw a lot of talk of why can't we get Kelvin Ridley?
Why can't Kelvin Ridley come to Buffalo?
It really was always going to be priced out of Buffalo's range.
And once Mike Evans gets tagged inside and then once T Higgins gets tagged and even though he's asked for a trade, I see a lot of bills mafia out there requesting that we trade for T Higgins.
You've got to remember that after giving up that draft capital, which will be not insignificant for a guy like Higgins, you then have to sign him to a long term deal in order to make that work.
You are still paying stuff on things.
You've signed Curtis Samuel to what is ultimately a reasonable two year deal.
Throw T Higgins into that mix.
And then all of a sudden your cap situation, which you have done a really responsible job if you're Brandon Mead clearing out for future years.
All of a sudden, it becomes untenable again because you have so many resources sunk into one particular position room where you don't know necessarily what you have in combination or scale.
Set T Higgins is a really good player, but T Higgins is never played outside of having an alpha dog next to him in Jamar Chase.
Now, of course, he said all of the right things in throughout the course of this process of getting tagged and flirting with free agency that he believes he can be the alpha.
He could believe he believes he is the number one.
But the reality is is that T Higgins, while he may be a good fit for 30 or 27 or 25 other teams may not work for the bills because it stuff on digs for as good as he still is is not to the level of Jamar Chase at this point with the level with the level of the level of attention that he garners his ultimate positioning in the in the scheme.
Jamar Chase runs a lot of vertical a lot of deep routes that demand attention for Cincinnati.
And T Higgins takes advantage of that.
Also going deep himself on the other side, but oftentimes getting single coverage.
He wouldn't necessarily benefit from from those same advantages in Buffalo and neither would Kelvin Ridley.
So I think ultimately the way you've got to approach this often the off offense of moves for the bills is that they are stabilizing what was a solid unit last year.
They continue to not see a regression in Brady's first full year. And if that was your goal heading in, I think I like everything about these free agency moves.
Save JJ for what we talked about last pod, which I have big questions about how they're managing the offensive line.
But I think that's something they're going to ultimately address in the draft.
So I think taking in totality.
These are nice floor stabilizers.
These are nice things to hopefully help hold back some regression in next year's offense.
And yeah, it's been doing being things and free agency.
Yeah, absolutely.
And you know, I think that that's your over your success for the Buffalo bills is built in these sorts of moves.
It's built on not overpaying, not going too deep, not going too long term in contracts and making sure that players contributions, you know, you're getting a player before it's to, you know, you're getting them early and not too late and that sort of thing, not holding on them to
the players too late. This is the first as you've said in kind of chats and talks past.
This is the first offseason where we're seeing what what a generation of talent looks like as it washes through the Buffalo bills.
It'll be an interesting season with the changes at both coordinators with McDermott potentially still being in the room with play calling on defense or handing it over to a first time play caller.
That's going to be kind of a massive change. And then this roster is going to look markedly different, especially on the defense this upcoming season.
And so we're going to see what it looks like when they have to reload without stalwart leaders like Morris like Poyer possibly like hide if you know he retires or doesn't I don't think he's coming back I think he's probably going to retire.
They're probably just seeing what what free agency would offer if he were to stick around.
But yeah, with a lot of those big massive sweeping changes we get to see what that post leadership era of those players who started the the run with McDermott will look like and so yeah I think it's good good moves on offense and
finally I guess this brings us to Curtis Samuel to talk a little bit about what that signing means.
And with you and that I worry that it means that they're they're moving off of or they're cooling on a wide receiver in the first round, and how that plays out in the draft and we've talked about all these guys.
I feel like what that looks like to me is if Brian Thomas Jr. AD Mitchell Troy Franklin some of those you know, four five six seven top first round talents on wide receiver are gone before the bills pick or likely to go in like the low low 20s where it's a little bit rich to move up and
give up a two or three. I feel like if if those guys start going, the bills are certainly going to take a defensive lineman, or a defensive back like I will you know, I don't think they'll take a tackle, I don't think they'll take a center.
I don't think they would take a linebacker I think it's going to be a DB or a defensive lineman, likely edge likely tackle whichever of those positions has the like, premier talent that slid down with a run on offensive lineman maybe with a run on wide receivers where
they have seven or eight of them go in the first 20 picks, they probably would would pivot and take another position group where somebody's forced down the board of them, very much in the same way that Dalton concade was I think this team was all in on picking a wide receiver in the first round
and they had to pivot here, but the top talent was gone by the by the middle of the first round and they had to pivot they had to take who they described as the best pass catcher in the draft, and Dalton concade I'm not upset with that pick but I think it's going to be you know a time where they'll have to, you know, they'll
they'll probably pivot I don't I don't see them trading down I don't see them.
You know, taking the 10th best wide receiver on their board at the end of the first.
Either do I JJ and I, I, you know, I don't I don't want to say that it would necessarily be a mistake in that case but Curtis Samuel does the things that Joe Brady clearly values and his offensive scheme very very well.
But he doesn't bring to the table despite the fact that he's got some real acceleration and real pop at the top of his routes and can separate. He does not bring to you that true burner that can take the top off the defense Joe Brady as we have discussed wants to take the free yardage that
is directly in front of him in short in short area yardage situations that defenses are giving by playing the bills with such light boxes. And he also wants to exploit teams horizontally through the middle of the field and on out routes heading towards the sideline.
Curtis Samuel does all these things well. He is schematically a really good fit for what we think. Britt Joe Brady wants to do with this offense.
The bills are lacking. And why I will continue to trumpet wide receiver around one is a true X that can just run a straight vertical route on anything more than just a clear out route when those 5050 balls get separation downfield and then be able to actually
bring the ball in at the point of catch compete at the point of catch physically with a lot of these DBs that are playing this kind of sticky coverage on the Buffalo Bills these days.
Samuel doesn't bring that to the table. He will be a really nice piece to slide into this offense. But the drop off to me JJ from first to second round and wide receivers that bring that specific skill profile that X profile to the table.
The drop off to me from first to second round is much more severe for wide receivers than it is edge. You could tell me that we could get the third best edge in this class at pick 28 or the eighth best edge of this class at 60.
But as I tell you the drop off is probably not that severe. And to me if that is the case, it should be wide receiver one but the bills hate drafting off need. They hate feeling like they are backed into a corner.
When it comes to taking a pick, they really want the freedom to take best player available at all times. And again as much as we want as much as we hope to see a larger sea change and roster management from being in McDermott.
And I think that will move well good and will help elevate this team is a move to me that is a little bit of the old days where we know we have this whole that we got to plug with Gabe Davis God, we're going to plug it with a guy that fits our needs, but we're not going to let that
guy. So we're also going to use it as an excuse to not take the giant step that we really need to enroster build, which is bringing in a young X wide receiver on a cheap controllable contract and develop him within our system. They have been adverse to that. We're using a
premium pick on a wide receiver to develop alongside Josh Allen, right. And this to me is a signal that that trend is likely to continue even into this year's draft.
I agree with you that that's because that's how well that's how we've seen it right that's the evidence we have of how being likes to build and how being likes to draft. My counterpoint to that, the place I depart is that at the end of the first round.
There are situations and you have to agree to this being as smart of a football mind as you are Dan, that there are situations where there is no choice where choice is not it's not about choice right like, like I said in a scenario where eight wide receivers have gone on the first 20 picks.
It's no longer the smart GM play regardless of wide receiver elite wide receiver being the need or the position of making that next step, because elite wide receivers no longer exist for you. It's truly like you are going to be picking your second round or third round talent guy at that spot.
And at that point I would be I'd be upset with the bills. If they take somebody who has a pretty glaring hole in their game and has a lot of developmental need in the first round who really was more of a fit in the second or third if they take their cold strange for instance, at wide receiver just because
they're going to get over that hump and that person might have an X body type might be 64 to 20 with some speed, but it's like the kind of player who has severe drop issues, the kind of player who takes several years to develop a root tree or like that's where I'm worried about you know really kind of going all all ham
towards a wide receiver in the first. But you know that that again I know you know that right like if there's if there is no option, it really becomes about okay what can we do, how can we pivot.
Because here's a perfect example. I think I've not given up on Kyrie. Kyrie Lowe is to cornerbacks. What a wide receiver that would be picked at that position after their top eight are gone is to this draft right they absolutely went in the draft, definitely
needing a CB and when Kansas City beached them and jumped in front to take Trent McDuffie, they were just left holding the bag like well everybody knows what our need is we just got to take whatever guy we still have a first round great on and maybe that wasn't their first choice.
I agree, you never want to reach for need and I totally agree with you on that and that is always the caveat that I've been open to with wide receiver. To me, I and I get it, the bills defensive line right now needs a lot of depth additions, but they have JJ with Dequan Jones with
JJ Epinezza, Von Miller being another year removed from his injury, still having at Oliver, they have largely retained the starting core on defensive line that was fifth last season and past rush win rate.
So I understand I understand not reaching for need. To me, and we have talked about this, no matter what resources you invest in that defensive line, it is almost never going to be enough to do the thing you ultimately need to do, which is bring Patrick Mahomes down.
What you need to do, what you need to do is keep Patrick Mahomes off of off of the field. And what you need to do that is when opposing defenses begin to counter the short area and horizontal scheme that Brady wants to run, you need to give them a reason to
respect the deep ball or respect these deep routes. There is no one currently on the roster for the Buffalo Bills that strikes fear into anybody's heart and doing that.
For me, if it is between sitting at 28 and taking a guy like Chop Robinson, who you have to go a long way to convince me will be the difference maker against, against Patrick Mahomes, or trading your 28 and a future third to get up into the 20s, which is probably what it
would take to take a guy like a D Mitchell or take a guy like Brian Thomas Jr. Or I would even put Xavier worthy into this class. And I've seen a lot of the stuff on social media, where they have ranked all of the fastest 40 times ever run at the combine by a wide
receiver. And it's a lot of draft busts. And I get that. But when you look at that kid's tape, he looks like some sort of fast mix between DeSean Jackson and Stefan Diggs with real downfield versatility, real outside versatility.
So to me, if there is that run early on in the late in the teens on wide receivers for teams, to me, I would like to see being act with a little bit of aggression to go get someone that can develop alongside Josh Allen because Curtis Samuel is great, but he doesn't fix your
Stefan Diggs problem when that contract comes due. There is no one currently on the roster that is your wide receiver one replacement. And I get it. There's always guys in every class that you can find. But this is the very thing that we have criticized being for
for years. He did it. He found himself in that Kyler Elam situation, because he didn't take DB's earlier on in the previous year's draft, right? He is going to find himself in this very same situation and wide receiver, unless he uses the luxury that he has this
year with such a deep class to address it, because we could be talking about the 2025 draft needing to find Stefan Diggs replacement JJ. And there are right now projected far fewer guys that are going to fit that profile and next year's draft as opposed to this year's
draft. And this is the thing that being is always struggled with is thinking far further down the future than just this year's draft class. And if we were to go edge here, if we were to go edge here, I think it would be a side that not really but just changed with the roster
and draft philosophy of this team.
That was a mic drop moment, my friend. Well played, Dan. And I accept your accept your answer to my positional opportunity. You buttered me up very nicely too, I got to say it keep quoting by football like you which you and I both know is severely lacking.
Right. That's why I rely on spreadsheets. Don't don't beat yourself up. It's just below average. So let's, let's pivot here. I don't know if you have more to say about Curtis Samuel, I think that, you know, we are both, I feel like we're both on the train that as long as
positional value and what's on the board matches up its wide receiver only right no matter what. And if that requires you to go up go up. If that require if you need to slot down a little bit slot down pick up a three we don't have a three right now
accurate summary right yeah so that's where we're at with that Curtis Samuel as a player I'm very excited about he's still under 30 he still has an opportunity to contribute his best productivity in the league was under Joe Brady when he was in Carolina.
He's never played with a quarterback better than Cam Newton. And so it's really exciting to see what somebody like Josh Allen could do because we know at this point in time.
Josh Allen thrives when he has players who separate because he likes to throw to an open player. He doesn't like to throw to windows or you know he doesn't he's not a great progression or anticipatory thrower.
So I think that somebody like Curtis Samuel may be, you know, the the production we saw from Cole Beasley having his best seasons of his career and Buffalo is the kind of thing I expect to see from Curtis Samuel assuming everything goes well and he, you know, develops
in the offseason and training camp with Josh Allen and then everybody stays healthy right like that's what I expect to see from Curtis Samuel because in the league according to next gen stats on his average his average target he had 3.37 yards of separation, which is plenty
for Josh Allen, he tends to get about 1.8 to 2 yards of separation from Stefan Diggs on his targets. And so three yards of separation is obscene. He's gonna that's gonna be a luxury for Josh Allen because Curtis Samuel has so much juice.
Also according to next gen stats, within one second of the snap of the football, Curtis Samuel is moving nine miles per hour, which was the third fastest burst in the entire NFL last season.
And so what that tells me is this is somebody who has a strong and fast release and can get into into and out of his breaks very quickly, which provides for that separation and that's exciting to see also he has something like 70 carries as a running back in the league he was a converted running back in from high school
into college to wide receiver and into the league. And so it was really a question of what he was going to do and he's done both he's he showed you know utilization and both. I think the ability he one of the ability he has that I don't know that a lot of players on the bills have
to know except for maybe Khalil Shakira shows it a little bit gone to some extent is that preternatural sense of knowing who who's around you in space the eyes in the back of your head again Cole Beasley had that you know as a strong trait to stop to stutter to kind of jump back when he needs to avoid
a tackle immediately after catching the ball to squeak out three or four extra yards or break something for a big run after the catch so I'm excited about Curtis Samuel in that regard I think that he you know is electric once he gets the ball in his hands he does provide a great target and
window for his quarterbacks and he's done you know he's made all his head in this league with people like Sam Howell even Kyle Allen you know last year's back up throwing to him because Cam Newton was playing with Curtis Samuel when Cam Newton was on the tail end of his kind of excellent career
and was really struggling dragging around a lot of injuries.
Yeah it's a great summation on Curtis Samuel dude and I think a good a good time for us to flip over to the defensive side of the ball. So let's talk about and I've kind of already alluded to this.
Let's talk about some of the additions or should we say returns to the Buffalo Bills defensive side, particularly on the defensive defensive line which we know is an issue for the bills from a depth perspective.
What the priority for being was was pretty clear this offseason JJ they wanted to bring back and stabilize that defensive line with as many of the faces that help contribute to again the fifth best pass rush win rate in the NFL last season.
The only teams JJ that were better than the bills and pass rush win rate were the Dallas Cowboys, the Cleveland Browns, the Houston Texans and the Indianapolis Colts pretty impressive overall I would say.
I mean this is again according to ESPN stats and info.
So the bills JJ return now a huge snap share and their defensive line and then bring back a talented depth piece and AJ up and as a that they hope is going to I would think take that Leonard Floyd role so Leonard Floyd was playing about 53% of the snaps last season.
AJ up and as a over the course of the last two seasons JJ was playing about 35% of the snaps. So there is obviously that rotational piece that the bills are going to look to fill probably in the draft and sadly with around one pick as we have already discussed, right, but they're looking
for someone now to replace the epinezza role of about needing to take on about a third of the snap share.
So JJ, I'd like to start with epinezza and then we can get into to Juan Jones because I think that's going to be territory for us to depart a little bit more again.
So epinezza JJ will now shift from that rotational 33% snap share guy into the Leonard Floyd role we assume based on the contract that he signed where he'll be playing now 50% of the snap share.
For those of you listening at home JJ, AJ epinezza has recorded six and a half sacks each of the last two seasons 13 total combined, being on the field only about 30% of the time.
When he's on the field JJ he's been a disruptor. How do you see that production that he's put out over the last two seasons extrapolating to a larger snap share.
Well, I think for AJ epinezza it's the question really becomes like his availability, because I think you talk about a limited snap share he has had a limited snap share and has still somehow been struggling with injuries every season.
Soft tissue stuff, elbows, pectorals, ribs, you know, and so I think that I expect if he has a healthy season I expect him to be a 10 plus sacks player in this league.
And I expect him to do this is his year right like he has his contract was built at like a $6 million per year base, and addressers are going anywhere from 15 million to 20 million for the first starting caliber, you know, above average starters.
And so I believe that AJ epinezza has bet on himself with a two year contract incentive laden. I'm sure that there's escalators built in to his contract at certain snap snap levels at certain sack levels.
If you combine snap and sack you get snack. So that's a stat we'll just use a snack levels. And so I haven't had breakfast. I apologize.
So don't apologize event new stack categories. Right. Fantastic. You know, if we come up with some way to blend those snaps and sacks, we'll call it a snack category.
So, AJ epinezza, you know, I think that some of the things that are wild about him and his limited usage is his passes, defense, his interceptions, right? Like, I think everybody who's watched him play is like that's kind of a funky step thing that he has.
He's like, I forget the player's name, but he was a special teams player for the bills who played defensive end four or five years ago. They call them mega hand, because he had like a bunch of field goal blocks.
I won't be able to remember his name. But anyway, um, that is the kind of, you know, he's got unique abilities. And when applied, he's been very, very successful. It's just the matter of he hasn't gotten on the field too much.
And my question has always been if, you know, AJ epinezza with 292 pass rush snaps this past year was able to get like 52 or something combined pressures, hits, hurries, etc.
Why wasn't he on the field for 600 snaps is like that's that's always been my question through the last couple of years. And it's not just injury, he's definitely been strongly rotated in and out.
And it's I think in part because his run defense grade is kind of low, he tends to be a little bit out of position at times, you'd expect him like we're so to be as lanky and long as he is to be really, really strong in setting and keeping the edge.
But he has struggled on occasion, I think that might be the reason that the coaches haven't trusted him in, you know, every down all time defense. And so it's really a question of can he elevate I think he has the capacity to do so.
And I expect to see a lot from AJ epinezza because I think he's hungry to win the starting role to even push von Miller into a more, you know, veterans see the situational pass rush position on the steam.
Sorry, having issues with the mute button there. Yeah, no, I, I think you're right. I mean, when you look at the course of the snaps that happen, as it has played over the last two years.
Overall game time has been limited. By the way, I think you were referring to Alex Carrington. Is that the dude mega hand?
I believe so. Yeah, I only remember that because for whatever reason I was looking, looking up some old Stevie Johnson quotes, because I'm like, man, I really miss Stevie and how he rocked the mic, right.
I guess I was looking for a little bit more positivity from a bill's wide receiver than what I've been seeing off.
Stefan Diggs social media pages recently. So I just went took a stroll down memory lane and I happened to come across that over the past couple of days. Weirdly, weirdly.
Yeah, weirdly. Yeah, no, Steve, Steve Johnson is lovely. But but yeah, Stefan Diggs is not so much a drama or not so much a diva as he is just a drama queen, right?
Like he he gets so pissed off the media for like taking like tweets and like little comments and blowing them up into oh, he wants out a buffalo.
He gets mad about them having that angle. But then he's so cryptic and like a few. And it's just like, you know, he's what's the word?
Ephemeral like he just sort of like moves in and out of situations like sprinkling little bits of doubt everywhere. And it's like, why do you got to be this way?
I think he's a I think he is a naturally guarded person, right? And I think a lot of times we as bills, fans and bills media often misread what he's trying to say.
He he is like his his most recent. Well, I think it was his story, right? It might have been his IG story. I can't quite remember where someone might have been CBS football or Fox Sports football broke down from 2020 on where
Stefan digs ranks in total yards, total touchdowns, targets, catch percentage, all this kind of stuff. You know, and he's not worse in any of those categories than top five or top seven, other than targets, which I think he ranked like 12th or 14th or something
like that. And he throws it up there and he says, Yep, like I need to remind you all right. And we take that as some sort of like bristling adversarial stance when I think in reality like he's never been a really braggadocious dude.
He's not like one of these wide receivers like it Antonio Brown, they just got to go out there and constantly talk about this game, his game. He's far more guarded. And I think private and his public facing and his public facing demeanor.
And I think a lot of times as a result of that, he is trying to get a message across, but also doesn't want to shake kind of the way he shields his persona and personal life. And I think that's an inherent conflict with him. And I think as a result of that, we often misinterpret a lot of what these social media posts
mean. And dude, this is the NFL offseason. It is like downtime, it is takes take after take after take. And this is the kind of stuff that gets put into the media spin cycle. And I think it's overdramatized a little bit, right. So I not that I not that I wanted to discontinue or discourse about A.J.
Epineza and go on a Stefan Diggs defense, but the opportunity opened itself right so yeah. And it's funny because I was just thinking that I was like, wow, we started to talk about A.J.
Epineza. What a hard yeah, reference Alex Carrington talked about how positive Stevie Johnson was and then started dragging stuff on eggs. And so yeah, it's how do we get here.
But let's bring it back to Epineza. I think everything that you said is right. And JJ, I think, I think the same analysis bears weight when you take a look at the Dequan Jones signing because Dequan Jones is another guy who in increased
stress has been super productive for the Buffalo Bills, right. And he's really found I think a home in this scheme. And he's talked about it a lot this offseason. The fact that in Tennessee and even in Carolina, he was being asked to have a multiple gap guarding
and now in Buffalo because they pretty much run four down defensive linemen on every play, he can focus on one gap coverage. And that's really unlocked pieces of his game, particularly in the past rush that no one really knew he had he had based on his previous
play and previous film. So I think he valued being here in Buffalo. But JJ same thing that we said about Epineza with regard to availability and injuries has to apply to Jones who is also now what he's going to be seven to eight years
older than Epineza. And he's going to be asked to take out a pretty large starting role next to at Oliver at Oliver last season JJ on pass rush snaps was doubled at a 54% rate and on run stop snaps at a 41% rate. You've got to believe that Dequan Jones is going to help with
some of that. But I do think the biggest question with him particularly coming off the injuries that he has faced is going to be his availability. Is he going to be someone who the bills can count on for 17 games and a post season run because as good as he's
been for two seasons, they lost him for the postseason in 2023. And he was not available all season last year.
Yeah, and that's a valid question and he's 32 years old and as you appropriately referenced he's seven years older than AJ Epineza at 25. And so it is a question and I think that's that's why we depart so much is because I look at the metrics the measures
every time every single instance that Dequan Jones is on the field, especially next to at Oliver, the off or the defense has its absolute best stop rate, whether it's run or pass. Bar none right like those two that pairing has been more effective than even Mike
and Jordan Poyer on the field together at the same time as an indicator of what kind of defense the bills play they play their absolute best defense they're a top three unit when those two are next to each other and both healthy. And so that's I think why I'm so bullish on making sure you have that
piece back, because it's 100% injury league like there are going to be guys dinged up and I think it's more likely, you know, especially later in career. So I understand that that age reference. But I also will say that you know, in terms of, you know, two years 16 million
and with some incentives I'm sure some of those are playing time incentives is not a lot of money. I mean Christian Wilkins got over 25 million dollars, you got over $27 million per year with the Raiders granted younger more durable in his time.
But again, these it's not uncommon for an interior defensive lineman and even a one tech to be pulling down 20 plus million. And so to get to Juan Jones at just around eight average annual value. I think references his, his unavailability, and it also references his age,
because it's a short term deal. And I think that that's one of those places where, you know, the bills will likely address defensive tackle the likely address one technique defensive tackle slash nose tackle in this year's draft.
And I'm probably rounds 4567 right like I don't think they're going to spend a huge, you know, a one or a two on interior one tech, unless the you know the steel is there. And so I'm you know Braden Fisk is a player that I think in the second round and he's even a little bit more
they had Oliver type. So I wonder if we're going to see that. And I agree that I agree the availability is a concern. But I disagree that they should that there's any reality where they should have moved on, because, you know, we saw the market the market was was
popping for all of these, you know, interior defensive linemen, most of the targets that we were looking at for interior replaced to Juan Jones actually re signed with the teams that they were already on. Like Maurice Hearst was my target with Cleveland Brown he re signed with the
Cleveland Browns. You know, Quentin Jefferson went to the Cleveland Browns he's another player that has been with the bills and can play that role. You know, Ray Juan Davis, Kevin Givens re signed with Sam Fran. So a lot of people stayed where they are. And Greg gains he's somebody
who's been with the Buccaneers, who I thought could play that role. They all sort of re signed same as dayquan because I you know we sometimes forget and free agency that there's families involved there's sometimes kids in school, there's houses that are
in the middle of reasons that unless the the deal is kind of moves the needle quite a lot. It's sometimes a massive life upheaval to move on to a new team and new coaches and new scheme and new, you know, players in the locker room with you and those sorts of things.
You know, it's not going to be like exceptionally more money. Yeah, no, I listen and at this value. I'm fine with to Juan Jones coming back and as I've already referenced, you are bringing back a defensive line a starting or starting a rotation on the
defensive line that ranked fifth in past rush one rate and 13th in run stop win rate so I get the Buffalo Bills not wanting to lose their fastball in that regard. I think for 17 regular season games if to Juan Jones is healthy.
This is a great stabilizing move for that defense that might have some younger parts at other areas that they need to integrate into the defense particularly in the secondary because we have been through first wave free agency and the only safety and secondary
signing we did was Taylor Rapp for the most part. So it looks like the bills are going to go young for DB in the draft so you're going to need an experienced and stable defensive line to let the back half of that defense do what it needs to do.
For 17 games JJ as long as he's available I'm good with it. What we have seen though is that it's not a needle mover when it comes to getting over the ultimate hump that you need to get over, which is the Kansas City Chiefs, and I would even add into that the
Cincinnati bangles I think we forget the fact that when Joe Burrow went down that team kind of went into irrelevance last season because despite how good a story the Jake Browning story was that was a team that we knew probably was not going to make the playoffs.
The Buffalo Bills JJ unlike against the Kansas City Chiefs have not had recent regular season success against Joe Burrow either. So if he comes back healthy and if they can piece around that wide receiver core and Cincinnati.
Again, this is a this is these are now two hurdles that the Buffalo Bills have struggled to get over the last two seasons that I don't think this defensive line necessarily moves the needle on. But to get to that point, you got to win games and you got to make the playoffs.
And I think this assemblage of defensive line talent is very capable of doing that in the regular season. So I think we haven't lost our fastball on the defensive line. But I do think, and I don't know if it's in the draft, I don't know how much else is out there.
I do think that we should temper expectations of what the signing means, because we're really excited about Dequan Jones, based on what's been a five game sample from last season where he looked like Aaron Donald, right.
And then he went down with injury, and then he came back and he wasn't himself. I think it's a lot to expect that someone in their mid 30s, speaking as someone who is their mid 30s, I would die for at this point, right from a health perspective.
Yeah, it is. It's tough to expect it was for someone in their mid 30s that we're going to see that five or six game production extrapolated out all the way through the postseason.
So for me, JJ, it's good. But ultimately, like, I understand reasonably that this will not bring the bills, at least in my mind, any closer to beating the chiefs or conquering Joe Burrow.
Yeah, and I think those are all fair points and kind of we've been talking all offseason since the bills playoff exit that, you know, the answer hasn't been having a top five or top 10 defense.
It's you need to have an offense that does not allow any room for error, because that's where the defense has failed the bills in every playoff.
And so, okay, that hasn't worked, even with an elite defense. And we saw that with the, you know, 49ers against Mahomes in the Super Bowl, like they had the best probably one of the best patch rush units in terms of individual talent, an entire league all season long,
and couldn't get it done, couldn't get him on the ground, couldn't, you know, add stops. And so I think that it's really, you know, you're absolutely right. It's a time where it's like, okay, how do we pivot, how do we improve?
And in free agency, especially interior, the defensive line, all the signings are kind of done. They're only like players that kind that I believe would be a good, you know, good player to share some starting snaps are like tier tart Sebastian Joseph day,
kind of end of list. All the rest of them are more in at Oliver archetype. And so we don't really have, you know, any other one text left. So I feel like they're going to have to get younger, they're going to have to get cheaper.
And that, you know, lends itself, hopefully that's the way they do it, that lends itself to them kind of getting some some young signings in the draft.
And, you know, hopefully moving toward what we've both agreed is the way to go is make this offense a juggernaut and drag whatever defense you can through the playoffs.
Absolutely. And for once, allow the offense to carry the development of a young defense as opposed to the other way around, which is what it has been in Buffalo.
And that strategy made sense until Josh Allen became what he has become. You now have a veteran QB, maybe the second best QP QB of his generation behind my homes.
You now have the luxury having hit on that position to allow the offense, which offensively speaking just generally, not specifically to the bills, it's easier to integrate young offensive pieces than it is young defensive pieces,
particularly a defensive tackle. Let the offense carry you as you get this defense to where you need it to be. But that means investing premium capital via the draft in the offense, which I am, I am hoping the bills will do.
JJ, to me, that's going to be that is going to be the real acknowledgement in that moment in April when we get to the bills of pick 28 or maybe sooner if they trade up is whether or not they've realized that
they've realized exactly how they need to change the roster build to remain competitive here.
Yeah, no, I agree completely. Before we kind of flip to the last free agency edition.
The bills have made on defense, I will say that, you know, in terms of the defense of interior is not there's not really any more veteran depth players that are going to really, you know, move the needle for me.
There still are edge players. So let's kind of mention a few of those names that could be, you know, value signings later in free agency, you know, depending on the money, right, like I think that we're really talking about people to make between five and 10 million.
And that might not be until after June 1 when they get the, the true Davies white money, right. And it might be the kind of thing where they restructure a contract where they take some more money from Josh Allen's deal, something like that, in order to to make the room in their cap but chase young is
out there. Jadavian clown he is out there. Kalaise Campbell, Carl Lawson, Mike Dana, who played with the chiefs and had some juice. Derek Barnett, I believe he may have signed but I'm not I'm not sure he looks like he's available on my on the list I'm going off of here.
But Dupree Anakin Gakway, Dante Fowler, Romeo Quarra is still out there, but he had kind of an injury situation. So Emmanuel Ogba, there's like definitely names in terms of players who may want to pursue a championship and need to be on a contender players who have had plenty of big time, you know, money in their
career, and might want to play less snaps to try to have more impact to maybe hit another free agent deal, you know, one more time. So that's those some names any of those names kind of move the needle for you any of those names, you know, jump off the page.
Jadavian clown he I think more than chase young for me. Okay, clown and clown he had his best pass rush season of his career last season playing opposite Miles Garrett in Cleveland. He. Wait, was clown in Cleveland last year was he in Baltimore, he might have been
in Baltimore, he was in Baltimore. He was Cleveland, but he's still I mean he still had an excellent defensive, you know, line to play on. Oh yeah, absolutely. Excellent defensive line all the way across the board, and really got a lot of one on one match ups he's always been good JJ against the run.
But last season, he was fifth in edge defend defensive rankings for pass rush went right the best of his career. And he capitalized with I think was nine and a half sex last season. Alright, so Leonard for Floyd type production.
To me it's clowny chase young is a little, little bit vulnerable in the run stop game still at the stage of his career. And if I was opposing team and I saw chase young on the field, I would run the ball right at him. But clowny has the exact amount of juice you want in the run game off the edge, but
also now has really developed into a nice pass rusher to if he can be had at a Leonard Floyd type deal when we got him last year and second wave of free agency. Clowny is the one to me that I think could legitimately move the needle for the bills defensive line.
So here I agree completely I love that I love that signing and that I know you're like what because I've dragged Jamie and Clowny before you hate the sky you Cody for this guy I Cody ford in him.
No, mostly mostly. And this is different. I Cody ford Cody Ford, because he was a second round guard only prospect who wasn't good at guard right like he was a college tackle who couldn't even play garden the NFL very well.
And so that for me was like, okay, that's a massive bust because that's where you expect to find a player that could be just a reasonable service was his his bar.
The reason I've dragged Jamie and Clowny is his bar was Bruce Smith 2.0 right coming out first overall pick was expected to be like set the world on fire as a pass rusher, but proved to be just and this is this just the just as important, just an above average to to elite level edge defender
in the run, who who can offer some past rush ability. That's where he landed. And I think that's still plus starter territory and that's why I would be happy with assigning at a reasonable rate.
I just think for most of his career this guy's been way overpaid as some sort of past rush, you know, savant when he's proven in the league that he's not, you know, necessarily that that's not his skill set.
But this actually brings me to one more piece on the defensive ends with you know, can you name for me there's a top 20 there's a pff top 20 edge defenders list so it includes you know stops and things like that.
Which Buffalo Bill is in the top 20 on that list there's only one run stop win rate or run run stops where it's not run stop or win rate it's total edge defense so it includes sacks pressures hurries hits and run stops.
And there's one one bills edge from this past season who made the grade pff is a little wonky. Yeah, I'm not a I'm not a big pff guy. It's got to be a Rousseau or a pen as a it's got to be one of the two.
Okay, it's Rousseau at 13th best in the league, just behind Bradley Chubb from Miami. And like the reason the reason I you know I know pff rankings are sort of like, are these great their grades are wonky.
But when it's a list of names, and it goes Miles Garrett Michael Parsons Nick Bosa Max Crosby TJ Watt Khalil Mack Andrew Van Geekle, you know, Aidan Hutchinson, DeMarcus Lawrence like I'm like okay these are actual legitimate players.
So like I sort of believe if they if they're whatever their method is that they got to this list, I'm like that's believable for me that these are the best and I was surprised to see Greg Rousseau at 13.
But guess who else is on that list? Not a bill. Jadavien Clowney at 19. Yeah, I an excellent season. And you know, I think the description that you gave of Clowney coming out of college is the description minus the Bruce Smith comp that I would put on Rousseau, someone who is good in the run stop
game, and might have some juice and pass rush. I think Jadavien Clowney is future Greg Rousseau. Because we've seen Groot be elite and run stopping but really kind of struggle to put it all together from a pass pass rush standpoint.
I think you bring in a guy like Clowney and be like that's the future you just do what that guy does and you'll eventually get there right.
Sure, absolutely. So let's let's move on to the last we're getting along so let's move on to the last free agency edition from outside the facility in Nicholas Moreau.
He is a 28 year old linebacker who was drafted out of the tiny Greenville University by the Las Vegas ragers. I'm sorry was not drafted was an undrafted free agent by the Raiders.
He was in 2017. So still under 30, he's six feet tall to 16, not a very, you know, big player was a converted safety in college so move from safety to LB.
And so very much, you know, shares that that path with our own Matt Milano. And I think that there's a lot to there's a lot to look for here that it's a good move.
And he offers something that the Buffalo Bills have not had for for probably three seasons, which is a plug and play backup in terms of coverage at the linebacker at the second level.
I think that for years now, and I'll include to remain admins in this coverage was not to remain admins forte. His length was was his best coverage trait and he used it well.
He wasn't a natural kind of coverage player is a little bit stiff moving in the middle of the field. And Nicholas Moreau is not that he's excellent in coverage.
And he's also excellent in pass rush when he's been tried in that in that kind of approach. And so, you know, last season he only had 40 pass rush snaps and on those 40 snaps, you had three sacks.
So that's actually an excellent conversion rate. And so, you know, Nicholas Moreau the way I kind of summed it up for, you know, some bills fans I talked to often, he is essentially, he's the kind of player that if he was the replacement for the injuries
and the matchup with Casey and the playoffs instead of a retired AJ Klein, this is no shade at AJ Klein, I think it was just coverage has never been his deal, and he was called off the couch about to go on vacation with his family.
But if Nicholas Moreau was on the team at the time and able to fill in in that role, I believe that the bills could have forced probably two more punts one or two more punts on the chiefs, because the first downs they were giving up were against linebacker coverage,
and he could have probably broken up one or two passes that that were conversions otherwise.
Yeah, no, I think again, a great depth addition and when you look at the injuries that the bills have suffered to their linebacker core, I think a smart move overall as well.
And you know, because of his size, he's a little bit of a chess piece, he's a little bit of a slash piece, you could see him get some dedicated pass coverage reps against elite tight ends like a Travis Kelsey right, maybe and dime looks, he becomes kind of our box Jordan poyer guy as
well. He can be moved around the field. I don't know that he's necessarily I think he will service primarily as a backup linebacker. But I think he's got positional versatility that in Buffalo's defensive scheme, they could unlock in some really interesting
ways. And I mean, the team did part ways with Siran Neil, who, excuse me, who was a guy they tried out, and a lot of these tight end shut down one on one assignments.
I think a guy like Morrow could very well be a replacement for that type of need as well. So no, a solid depth signing overall by the bills and JJ I mean I think in summation, first wave for agency is Brandon being doing bean things making sure that he is addressing
the starting 11 on both sides of the ball, and also leaving as few holes as possible, so that the bills are in a position to go best player available in the draft.
I have, you know, one additional request of Brandon being its being, you know, baller bean, get out there and get me Julian Blackman, get me to Sean Gibson senior, get me, not all of them, give me Ashton Davis, formerly played with the Jets,
who's 27, one of those safeties, because I do not love at present the idea of going into the season with Taylor rap and Cam Lewis and some mid round rookies, right like that's, that's my worry is like that I don't know that to step down from Jordan poor and Mike
a hide to Taylor rap and Cam Lewis kind of terrifies me on the back end. Oh yeah, well said, well said. I have one additional request for being listen to this pod sir and go wide receiver and round one please that is all we need.
Even though Brandon Bean might not listen to the pod though we appreciate all of you listening at home. As always like share and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts Google Apple Spotify and as always go bills, go bills.
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