Welcome back to the Buffalo Bread podcast.
I'm your host JJ with me as always is Dan and we are in offseason mode as you are I'm
sure are aware.
The NFL honors happened last night.
We can talk briefly about some of those because they do have impact on some of the bill's
players.
But we'll also be getting into some of our offseason stuff.
On the docket today we have a look back at a fantasy reality where Brandon Bean hits
on all of the best draft picks and trades.
We also have a look forward into some of our offseason targets and free agency and some
places where we hope that maybe the front office at One Bill's Drive will target in
order to get us ready for the draft because as we know Big Baller Bean doesn't like to
go into a draft with massive glaring holes that forces hand with his picks.
How are we feeling Dan?
Are you ready to get started?
I'm ready to jump in man.
I'm so ready for offseason mode.
It's not even funny at this point.
What Super Bowl man?
Give me the draft.
Just bring it on.
Bring it all on at this point.
There's a football game this weekend?
Listen, I know there's a reason for me to drink bourbon and eat sliders but I wasn't
sure.
The reason to drink bourbon and eat sliders is any day that ends in Y my friend.
We don't need another Patrick Mahome Super Bowl to ring in that occasion.
But yeah man, let's hit it right off the bat here.
So I think the way we've got this laid out is a lot of fun.
So this week, as you said, we're going to take care of free agency targets.
Next week we're going to start to set the table and the draft knowing that these draft
priorities that we're aligning with are probably going to change based on what the bills do
in free agency is limited as their cap space is.
And then we're going to hit this alternate fantasy draft universe where and I think
what is inarguably the Brandon Bean lean draft years from 2019 to 2021, we're going
to revisit those and see if there's not a Super Bowl contender we can pick from the
memory of those remains.
It's going to be a lot of fun dude, I'm stoked.
But why don't we jump right in with free agency?
So JJ, why don't you set the table for everybody listening here?
What do you think are going to be the top priorities, the bills target position wise
and free agency?
And what are some of the guys you think cap restrictions being the big context they're
going to target?
So I believe the really to set the table is four positions.
It's wide receiver safety, defensive tackle, defensive end.
So the biggest hole on the bills roster at present is on the defensive line.
You want to have about eight to 10 guys on your 53 man roster in the tackles and ends
and the bills currently have I think four or five.
So Ed Oliver, Greg Russo, Kingsley Jonathan, Cameron Klein, Vaughn Miller and Ely Anku
are the existing and you may recognize Cameron Klein, Ely Anku, Kingsley Jonathan.
None of those I would consider kind of tier one starting caliber players at this point
in their career.
That doesn't mean they don't have the potential.
I know we both have liked what we've seen from Kingsley Jonathan.
We both have liked what we've seen from Ely Anku and different spot starts.
The bills also like those players because they were pilfered off of the practice squad
at different times and the bills have made efforts to get them back.
And so there may be opera expanded snaps there.
But I was listening, I think it was the cover one guys quantified exactly what the bills
have lost on the defensive line.
And it's like 67% of total snaps are currently not under contract from this past year.
So that is correct.
So with that snap share missing, they're going to need to do some work.
So I think defensive line is absolutely a number one.
The most important need followed by safety and then followed by wide receiver.
And I think I see wide receiver is fourth because the bills have Stefan Diggs.
They have Khalil Shakir.
They have Dalton Kincaid.
They have James Cook.
They have at least four premium targets in that, you know, in the skill positions that
they can work with.
They just need some role players.
The problem with wide receiver and I think it also extends to defensive end is for a
premier starter, you're going to have to pay massive massive 20 plus million per year.
They do not have that they're negative 53 million.
They're probably going to get up to positive 20 million, I think with some restructures
and things we've talked about.
And so what we're really going into free agency with is a bag of about $10 million that they
could use because they like to keep 10 or 11 for rookies and in season signings.
And so what we'll see is probably three or four vet minimum deals and then want maybe
one big time deal at one of these four positions.
And so that's kind of where we're at.
I'm going to start with what I think is the most probably the easiest position to get
a starter in, in free agency and that's at safety.
And if you're looking at the roster right now, Jordan poor is under contract.
They're probably going to ask him to take a pay cut or restructure, probably not wanting
to restructure given his injury history and age.
You don't want to push things down the line with him and asking him for a pay cut.
I think anybody who's paid any attention to his social media over the years since he's
been a bill knows he's a very prideful man.
It's unlikely that that conversation would go very well unless they restructured in a
way where the contract was laden incentives that he could make more money because the
likelihood of them going with their hand out and being like Joe or Poe, we need money back
and him already coming into this year disappointed in the way the contracts shook out for him
in free agency.
That may not go well.
But starting there, I think that the reason that we have Poe back is exactly the reason
that bills can get a starting safety this off season.
It's an undervalued position.
It's declined over the years and kind of splash signing.
So unless you're a top 10 in the league safety, you're not going to break 10 million a year,
almost invariably.
And the numbers 11 through probably 25 in the league are going to play between 5 million
a year and 10 million a year.
And so I think the bills have enough money to get somebody in that kind of 5 million
per year deal.
If they want to plug that hole and have somebody alongside Poe.
And they really want to have somebody who is a free safety because that's the position
we're missing right now.
Poe can play all positions, but his athleticism, he never had elite athleticism, but he's
taken a step back from that already.
Anybody who watched the season can tell you he was kind of lagging on some things.
So they really need a free safety, somebody to patrol the deep middle when they're in
one high, somebody to kind of cover their half and maybe even help out and shade to
a two thirds coverage when they split the back end.
And I see that as here are my here are my targets for that free safety position.
Alohi Gilman from the Chargers, young safety.
He's a ballhawk and kind of a punch out specialist.
He had three, four fundables, two interceptions has had, you know, missing games here and
there, but is that kind of deep third has sufficient athleticism could be had for probably
five to seven million per year, get him on a one or two two year deal.
That's a good that's a good target for me.
Julian Blackman, a little bit more.
He's a strong, he's a strong safety in use usage and by title, but I think he has free
safety chops.
I think he has the athleticism needed to play that deep third.
And he's out in Indianapolis.
He's 25, $6 to $8 million per year.
The thing I like about Julian Blackman is he's not an elite athlete, but he's got athleticism.
He is an elite tackler.
He does not have a high mistackle rate.
And I think that, you know, Sean McDermott and Bobby Babbage looking at him are going
to say that's that's a guy that can play the Sean McDermott defense.
Definitely good and run support definitely comes up.
And the reason I say he's been played out of position is that he's been kind of strong
safety pigeonhole for the last couple of seasons playing a lot more down in the box.
But I think he has the capacity to kind of drop back.
And so those are kind of that five to seven, five to $8 million.
Jeremy Chin out of Carolina, safety, no free, no, no strong kind of designation because
he's, we loved him coming out in the draft a few years back because he's sort of that
like utility tool can do anything player.
And has kind of fallen off a little bit, had some injuries, some inconsistent play, but
I think a reclamation project for sure, maybe on the lower end of five to five to six million.
And he has some pass rush skills, which I think is is a cool concept here, and especially
with the way that Sean McDermott has liked to call the defense this past season, seeing
some DB pass rush.
So those are my kind of three realistic, my like top top dream signing though is Xavier
McKinney from the New York Giants.
He has been great in the box, great in coverage, excellent tackler.
This is going to be his big, you know, big signing.
He's only 24.
And you'll notice a clear definition of my players.
None of them is over 25 years old.
Well, I noticed that.
Yeah.
A little bit of a German and Jeremy Chin are just 26.
They just turned 26.
So they were 25.
When the list that I was looking at were made up, but I was targeting young because I'm
looking for a two to three year contract.
So the bills can structure it in a way where they don't have a massive cap hit, but they
are getting paid and it is incentivized for them to come to Buffalo.
And so yeah, that's, that's what I see.
And really in this off season, that's what I would like to, I would like Brandon being
to get done is to go into the draft knowing you have Poyer on the last year of his deal
and want and a reasonable starter so that anyone you sign, even if you get a first,
you know, first round talent, even if you get a Cameron, who's the Cameron kitchens
kitchens out of my area.
Yeah.
And you know, they just happen to hire the DB coach from Miami.
I don't know, strange coincidence.
So we'll see how that shakes out.
But even if you get somebody who's kind of a top end talent and let them compete with
one of these guys, worst case scenario, you have a high end rookie as your third best.
And best case scenario, you have a high end rookie who beats out Poyer or the, or the other
signing and then, you know, you're good with depth.
And I like that strategy going into this year's draft JJ, because this is something that being
a McDermott haven't done a whole lot of they've really prioritized as we have talked ad nauseam,
veteran contracts that are for the most part affordable, usually mid tier and up, but they've
been hesitant to bring in a lot of rookie competition at some of those other positions.
I would actually like to see them.
And I think safety is a position that they are more likely to try to strike something
up in free agency.
I would still like them to come in on the back end and the draft and also draft a high end
rookie prospect as well.
I think it's fine at this stage of where the bills are with their cap.
If they're investing a little bit of mid tier to lower tier veteran money in a position,
but if they if they hit the contracts in the right way, they have enough wiggle room to
get out of a contract after one or two years.
I still think that leaves them room to bring in a rookie that's under cheaper contract
contract control at one of these positions.
Um, this may or may not surprise you.
I had the exact same top three realistic targets for my safety, my safety picks as well in
free agency.
I really like Jeremy Chen.
To me, this feels like a potential do over that we could could nab him when we coveted
him in the draft so much.
His usage in Carolina, especially towards the end of the season, though, became really
interesting because they really used him more like we started to use Jordan Poyer.
They used Chen a lot more on the box, but I agree with you.
I do think he's got some great, um, free safety coverage skills that for whatever reason,
I don't know if it was injury.
I don't know if it was the transition yet again that the Panthers went through and coaching
regimes and all that kind of stuff.
Chin's usage to me was a duplication of what the bills are doing with Poyer.
And the caveat I put under signing Chin is if you're going to sign Chin that feels like
a move you make if you're going to part ways with Poyer, which again, I think I'm comfortable
with, but but Chin for sure is my guy.
And JJ, I'm also not against bringing back Taylor Rapp on an affordable contract as well.
He had that same sort of reputation coming to the bills that he was really more of a
box safety.
He really can't play center field like coverage skills are limited, but he really excelled
in those moments where he had to fill in for Micahide in that very role.
His versatility to me is enough to give him maybe a two year deal, see if he's willing
to come back to the team on something that's a little bit cheaper.
Then you've got a presence coming back that is familiar with the scheme and that really
frees you up to part ways, I think, hopefully amicably with Jordan Poyer, who again has
been a warrior for this team, but then address that strong safety chess piece position more
in the draft because there's going to be kids that we're going to talk about in the draft
that really would fit well in that mobile versatile piece that they started using Poyer
in towards the towards the end here.
Like Cooper Dijon is one of those guys who I've got targeted, Cam Kitchens as well, but
there's definitely going to be some opportunity that if you bring in rap back on an affordable
team friendly deal, that gives you some room to play around it, play around with Jordan
Poyer's replacement for sure.
Yeah.
And I think kind of one last note, I agree completely on bringing back Taylor Rapp and
I think that he could provide what you said is continuity to a younger and to a to a new
free agent addition.
And I'll kind of close the safety, you know, free agency conversation with this.
This is the most likely path to a starter in free agency of all the positions we're
going to talk about.
Agree.
Just because of the affordability and the cap situation the bills are for sure.
Any of the other positions we're talking about, it's going to be hard to get somebody
who's not a third or fourth best on your roster at the money the bills will have to spend.
And so I think that we'll move on to, I think we'll move on to wide receiver.
I've got a few, and this is like the cost is so, you know, but I kind of run through
them quickly.
They need two to three bodies just to round out the roster because they like to go into
training camp with seven or eight, you know, wide receivers.
They brought KJ Hamler who was really electric out of, was it Penn State or Pitt?
I can't remember.
I think it was Pitt.
Pitt, yeah.
I'll look it up.
I want to see those Pitt.
Yeah.
So they brought KJ Hamler out of the practice squad as a reserve future signing who was,
you know, sort of that electric ball in his hands kind of talent who has had a complete
bust of a NFL career to this point, mostly because of injury, injury issues.
I think they.
Penn State.
Yeah.
I knew it was one of those two.
And so fans of the teams he's played for have called him KJ Hamstring because that's
the problems, a lot of lower body stuff, but we'll see what the bills can get out of him.
But you know, beyond that, in free agency, again, I targeted younger players.
I'm going to kind of run through the list.
Noah Brown out of Houston would be my higher money guy, quality possession style of receiver
with a little bit of juice and speed had a decent year, especially after Tank Dell went
down in Houston.
And so there's one one player, Leviska Chinalt out of Carolina, 25.
He's probably yours.
Yeah, you're nodding.
Yeah, I've got him on my list.
Yeah.
And he's got he's in that kind of three to five million per year, maybe up to seven.
If that Devin DuVernay out of Baltimore, a little bit more money, more proven track record,
more proven playoff appearances, but a solid guy, definitely a wide receiver three.
Donovan Peoples Jones, 25 out of Detroit, two to four million per year could be had.
And again, these are all like your third string.
You know, we cannot get a wide receiver one or two opposite.
Yeah.
T Higgins, Mike Evans, these are not Curtis Samuel.
I would even put Tyler Boyd in there.
Tyler Boyd, yeah.
These are not names that are coming to the bills.
None of those are coming.
Yeah.
And then out of Indy, that's awesome too.
Michael Pickman, Jr.
Yeah.
They're going to tag him though.
And that's the, again, the caveat around a lot of this.
Some of these higher end guys, they're going to get the tag, you know, so teams can extend
that window to renegotiate.
And then my last one is Nick Westbrook out of Tennessee, 27.
I said kind of an up and down career can do some things.
I'm not excited about any of these players like I am the safeties, right?
Like none of these players I look at if the bills, if the signing shows up tomorrow, I
don't look at any of these, except for maybe like Noah Brown, Paris Campbell and Levisco
Chinal and say, I think the bills got, you know, substantially or reasonably better.
Unless it's one of those three in free agency.
I think that the path for the Buffalo Bills in the wide receiver room is the draft.
That's a great draft class.
Multiple, multiple stabs take two or three in this, in this draft.
Absolutely.
And there is not a lot in free agency that is going to be within the bills price range
that is going to fill the real need that they have, which is like a true X receiver, a guy
who can line up one on one on the outside opposite of Stefan Diggs, win his matchups
with routes, speed, winning at the point of catch, body positioning, the whole nine,
tracking ability.
They don't have that complete of a wide receiver other than Diggs on the roster right now.
They've got a lot of guys who can win horizontally.
And that's what you really have here in the wide receiver free agency class is a lot of
guys who outside of the top end, we are not talking about Mike Evans, we're not talking
about T Higgins, Tyler Boyd, any of those guys.
What you have after that top tier in the drop off is a lot of guys that are duplicating skill
sets that the bills have.
So this made this really difficult for me.
I had Chanel is one of mine.
I also had.
Oh, who's the kid?
Hollywood Brown, Marquis Brown in free agency as well, just for the speed dynamic.
Just drops.
I don't want somebody who has more drops than the game.
Davis.
I know.
I know he brings and he it feels like at times he only brings speed to the equation.
And I get that.
I get that.
But the bills need that change of pace.
I know they've got Andy Isabella still if Hamler is healthy, maybe he can be that.
But they just need a dude on the field at times.
The defenses have to respect the ability to take the top off of it.
And he's going to come in at a contract that I feel like is going to be affordable, flexible
for the team.
And to me, he's more of like a let's catch lightning in a bottle with this kid because
he's still only 26.
He's going to turn 27 in season and he would come in and immediately be the fastest player
I think on the bills.
So I had Chenol, I had Brown and I had Van Jefferson as well.
Okay.
Van Jefferson and it's not because of anything I love about Van Jefferson.
I think he's a very professional wide receiver that does a lot of things good.
And that is the type of wide receiver.
I feel like the bills are more likely to target to round out the room than anybody else.
Out of everybody we named, I feel like Van Jefferson probably has the best shot to actually
sign a contract with the bills and end up on the team.
Probably a reasonable contract.
He's a somewhat larger body, so definitely has some blocking chops.
Exactly.
Was he at Chargers?
He was in, I want to say, he's bounced around a little bit.
He was with, I think he was with the Rams and then went to the Falcons, I want to say.
All right, yeah.
I think you're right.
Yeah.
I mean, he's basically, if you don't bring back Scherfield, he is your Trent Scherfield
replacement and the bills have coveted that body type and that skill set on the roster
for a really long time.
Sure.
Yeah, and I agree.
I think that's the kind of thing where, you know, that's what we're talking about here
is like anyone who's like, oh, they need to get Michael Pittman.
It's just like, that's not in the cards, people.
It's not.
Even a Kelvin Ridley is not in the cards.
Now, here, here is a universe where maybe a Kelvin Ridley or a DJ shark or I would even
put Kendrick Bourne in that category, where some of those second tier guys that might
get larger than they deserve paydays, the market for the top end wide receivers, I
think is going to play out in the 16 to 20 million dollar range.
I think after that top tier, a lot of teams are really going to consider given the depth
of the draft class, whether or not it is worth it to splash on a guy like Kendrick Bourne,
DJ shark, you know, even like a Nelson Aguilar or something like that, right?
And that might drive the price down of some of those tier two options to maybe the bills
can splash around with a higher end talent for a more reasonable contract.
But outside of teams making that decision and the market correcting where the wide receiver
pay range is right now, I think what we have talked about are probably where the bills
are going to be in free agency.
Yeah, absolutely.
And I think that, you know, this is now where I like to say, you know, buckle up, Bills
Mafia, we're about to get into some really disappointing discourse regarding the defensive
line.
This is a hard this is a hard time to beat to need this many defensive linemen, which
I mean, as we get into draft preview, I know every everyone in Bills Mafia wants bills
to go wide receiver and round one this year.
I can tell you the more I think about it, I am almost certain it is not going to happen.
They're going to go defensive line and that's going to absolutely infuriate Bills Mafia.
X is going to be just on fire with my hashtag Bills Mafia talk on the first night of the
draft when at 28, the Buffalo Bills select defensive tackle.
Devondre Swift or Devondre Sweat out of Texas, 64362.
Oh, did you see him in this?
Oh my God.
He's looking like he's more like three.
Yeah, like he's closer to 400 than he is 350.
I saw it.
I saw him fold the 313 pound person in in half backwards the wrong way.
Like that man's poor back as he just rolled over him.
So here's the thing with all the juice that he's got, he's going to go probably.
So Byron Murphy, the second out of Texas is considered a top 10 talent.
That's what I really want to fall to us.
I love that.
Really?
Oh, we are going to depart so hard on him.
I think he's a bum.
I think he's going to.
Byron Murphy is a bum.
I think he's a bum.
Oh, this is going to be draft time is going to be so much fun.
I think he's going to be a huge bust.
You just want to Juan Jones back so bad.
There it is.
I do.
We're going to double depart in this.
No, I will literally, I will.
So Juan Jones can, can like literally walk tomorrow if they draft to Vandrey Sweat because
that dude is, he is like the, he's the reincarnation.
I know Ted Washington is still alive.
He's the reincarnation of Ted Washington.
Who are you killing in the NFL?
Yeah.
No.
Oh, this is going to be so much fun.
Oh my God.
I love this.
Anyway, love the D line discourse.
Go ahead.
So we're going to hit it.
Um, so anyway, DT will start with defensive tackles.
Um, I've got it.
That's really short, man.
Like, to be honest, when we talk about DT's, you know, DeQuon Jones signing back is probably,
it's a reasonable contract.
He, he had an injury riddled season.
Other teams might see that and his value might go down.
And in that world, you have somebody who you know plays capably next to Oliver, who looked
good coming on late in the, in the playoff run.
He and at Oliver did not have enough push in the KC game.
Of course, like we've already talked about that.
I, I, you just desperately need bodies and if you can get somebody who knows the system
and who you know is a capable starter is liked in the locker room, that's, there's value
there.
And that's the only reason I'm talking to Quon Jones is because when you look at the
whole field, he's one of the youngest players that's within the bill's price range.
They're getting any younger than DeQuon Jones, unless they're willing to go over $10 million
a year, um, except for maybe Maurice Hearst.
So, but he's more of a three tech interior pass rusher and was ranked by a PFF is like
the 13th best DT with the pass rush.
So he's a backup Ted Oliver.
He's not a, you know, he's the Tim Settle role, the Jordan Phillips role.
He's not a one tech.
Um, as far as one tech's Shelby Harris and Fletcher Cox, both old, you know, defensive
tackles.
I'd rather have Jones back at that point.
That's what I'm saying.
End of list.
I looked through all of the possible contracts and that is my list and DeQuon Jones sits
strongly at the top, like far and away better than any of them.
And to find a one tech, I mean, I will say I didn't scour people's practice squads and
undrafted free agent lists and things like that for like who they, cause they're just
going to need bodies.
Correct.
And, and it, that might be the way that they get it done other than the draft is with somebody
who's like a practice squad or unsigned player that, you know, is a big body.
It's like, um, I mean, I don't know if it's Steve Tasker, Chris Brown, somebody on one
bills live always talks about how the player, the individuals that go six, five, three,
30 and can move like a cheetah, they don't exist in, you know, on practice squads or
sitting out there on, on sign lists.
Like they are such unique unicorns that they're on rosters.
And so for the bills to find that, I think it has to be through the draft because it's
just not, you know, it's not, there's nothing out there.
I don't know if you found anyone else.
I found some backup worthy guys that I would like to take a shot on.
But again, one tech you're right is absolutely light.
Um, and that's really what we're talking about trying to replace.
If we don't resign Jones, I, I, I'm going to be firm on this though.
I really want the bills to address one tech in the draft.
I think there's a lot of the three tech quick first step pass rush guys that make this a
deeper than expected defensive tackle draft.
So those one techs are a bit of a unicorn this year in the draft, but there will be
guys within striking distances we get into the draft preview for the bills to go with.
So free agency, I really do just looked more at bodies to fill out the roster similar to
safety so that the bills can bring in a high end rookie with a day one or day two pick
to help challenge for some of those positions.
So first off, I've got from the Houston tech Texans.
Um, oh, hang on, I just lost him.
I was about to give him a great intro for a name that probably no one in this, no one
on this pot will know.
Um, Hassan Ridgeway.
So he's 26 right now.
Um, not a purely a backup player for the Houston Texans.
He's 263 305 has some one tech versatility.
They moved him around that line and a purely backup position, limited, limited reps.
Um, and he was on, he finished the year, I believe on IR, I want to say.
So I think, um, he is someone who's going to be, it was an Achilles tear, I want to
say that happened with him very early on in the season.
So he is a cheaper contract one year coming off an injury that you can use as kind of
like a get back, right?
He can have a, a get right year with the bills as long as he is recovering from that injury
and in the right way.
Um, and he's got enough youth.
He's got enough youth in his career to where hopefully, you know, that can happen.
But I think the last game that he recorded a tackle in prior to injury was back in November.
So with the way Achilles are repairing these days, he would be someone who would be back
probably closer to two or three weeks into the start of the season.
Sure.
And then beyond that, it defensive tackle, there wasn't a lot, dude, I'm with you.
Like there's Kevin Givens, right?
Who I kind of had as a maybe on my list out of San Francisco.
Um, again, more of like a three tech, but has some versatility in that San Francisco
scheme, but purely a backup, purely a backup at that point.
So this is a position and then you can go really old if you want to.
You've got John Jacobs out of Las Vegas, right?
You've got Jonathan Hankins out of Dallas who's going to be kicking around.
I think what is more likely to happen here is that the bills are going to take a shot.
It's someone who on this list, we would consider to be a little bit higher end, maybe like
a Greg Gaines out of Tampa Bay, right?
To kind of solidify some things on the defensive line.
But then in the second wave of free agency after the draft, you're going to see them
go after some of these older that minimum contracts.
And I think they're going to do the same thing on edge too, like a Justin Houston type of
deal, right?
So, I mean, it's just tough.
It's tough going on the defensive line like DJ Reader, Chris Jones, I would even say
Carl Lawson, not not possibilities right now for the bills on the defensive line any way
that you want to cut it.
So, um, God, even like a Grover Stewart who is like, if I'm indie, right?
Grover is on indie, right?
He's 30.
He's already 30.
No, 10 million a year probably.
Oh, he's going to easily be in the 10 to 12 million dollar range, right?
But it is incredible what some of these guys are going to be pulling down just because
of how light this market is.
And again, this is going to be a draft that's going to be rich in three tech pass rushers.
But if you're looking for that one tech runstopper block eater, you're going to have to strike
early in the draft if you want to secure that position.
Probably early though, plug for Murphy, who I know we're going to disagree on in the draft.
He is even at 309.
He is an elite runstopper.
And in the ACC, all those dudes do is run the ball, right?
So I'm just going to I'm just going to say, even though he's not that sweat body type,
he is a dude that can stop the run as and has some pass rush get off as well that I cannot
wait to to help to educate you on.
Yes, we talked about the draft.
We can talk all about that.
We'll talk about all his elite get off and how much of the two games I watched of him
he spent on the freaking ground because he has no contact balance.
Anyway, I can't wait.
Oh my God, this is going to be so much fun.
So it's going to be so much fun.
I can't wait.
So with DT, we agree, like as long as the plan, Jones is reasonable, which is always the caveat.
I would prefer for them not to, but I also understand the situation that they're in with
the bodies that they need here.
So I want to overpay for Jones.
No, no, no.
And I'm in the same.
We do agree on that.
Like I do not want to quench Jones for more than $5 million per year.
I think he's earned contract in that range.
Given his experience in this defense, but like anything more than that, I think it's an overpay
and most places have him rated between six and eight million per year.
I'm not paying that for to quench Jones.
If that's what his market bears, somebody else can pay him that.
No, I would rather pay.
Oh God, who's the kid out of?
Who's the kid out of San Francisco?
Yvonne Kinlaw.
Yeah, Yvonne Kinlaw.
Yeah, I'd rather give that kind of money to that kid, right?
At least he's like three years young or five years younger, right?
So if you're going to splash at six or seven a million a year, give it to someone with
a little bit more youth and pop in their step.
For sure.
Yeah, no, I don't disagree with that.
I think that if you're, you know, it's all about the money.
It's all about the value for me.
Yeah, absolutely.
One, one final hard right now.
Yeah.
One final plug for, for Maurice Hearst out of Cleveland, he sort of had a similar track
to, to Dequan Jones was like playing a top 10, top 15 level as a penetrating three tech
defensive tackle on that awesome Cleveland defense and probably could be had for two
to $3 million per year, real cheap contract, because he went out with injury after 300
snaps and did not come back.
And so, you know, they had, I think they had to sign Shelby Harris to replace him.
And then ended up, yeah.
And so, and then I mentioned Fletcher Cox out of Philly.
He's a well known name.
He's kind of on the decline in his career, but also would be maybe nine or $10 million
a year.
So like one of those, like we know the name, we know the production, great player don't
know that they have the money for it.
Yeah, agreed.
I agree.
So you want to talk, you want to talk about it.
Let's wrap up the, the free agent and there's certainly other positions, right?
There's tackle linebacker, I think center is, is a consideration in the off season, depending
on Mitch Morse.
The Mitch Morse question is one that we're really going to dig into when we talk about
salary cap.
But we'll talk about that, you know, in a future episode, because we're going to finish
with free agency for this episode with the defensive end.
Again, they need bodies.
They have Groot, Von Miller and Cameron Klein, Kingsley Jonathan.
So they have four DEs, but I would consider one of them starting caliber.
And then Von is probably a three, like he's probably your third best at this point in
time.
We'll see what we'll kind of Von we get after a full off season to recover.
But I, I'm worried he's never coming back.
And well, and, and I assume you're starting caliber guys, Groot, right?
Greg Russo and I, well, he's a two.
Right.
I mean, that's the thing.
You don't want him to be your bet.
He is an elite run stopper.
That dude, I would put him probably in the top five, even top three of edge run stoppers.
But the combination of his lower body injuries and the frame that he is packing.
I mean, I don't want to put the tag injury prone on Groot just yet, but if he is your
number one pass rush option on any roster, I think you are a team that, that is needs
to really retool that.
That does not sack the quarterback without linebackers.
Exactly.
So, yeah.
Yeah.
Why don't you go with your names?
Because, because I've said my names and you're like, yep, I got that one.
Yep.
I got that one.
Why don't you lead me with your list?
No, I'm good with it because I'll, I'll be honest with you.
My list is AJ Epineza and that's it.
So and reason why is I am hopeful that he will resign with the bills.
I think he's a guy that you want on this unit to add pop and depth in the pass rush game.
Because I think it, because we are talking first wave free agency.
I do not believe that there is anybody that can ascend to that like 40%, 50% snap share
at the edge position with Miller and with Russo outside of Epineza that would be in
the bills price range.
I think they go shopping for like, Morgan bin at that point.
Like, you know, like some of these guys that are have come out of like three, four defenses,
that might be able to play a little bit in a four, three scheme, like a Zach bond out
of New Orleans.
I had as like a maybe in the first wave because the contracts probably only going to be two,
maybe three million a year for somebody like him.
But outside of that, in AJ Epineza, I don't have a lot.
I think the bills, like they did with Floyd last year, they're going to hit wave two of
free agency after the draft and they're going to go veteran seeking for the edge this year.
And I think they're going to, they've got a lot of picks in this year's draft.
I think wide receiver is a double dip.
I think I just probably a double dip for them too.
Just may it work out better than the Basham Russo double dip of 2021.
Yeah.
You spent a first round pick and you got a top, an elite run defender with very limited
pass rush juice as injury problems.
Yeah.
I mean, that's the thing, the frame dude, like-
And the throw away.
Yeah.
I mean, it's just the frame.
The injuries are lower body.
So for a guy with that frame trying to keep it up, rep after rep, like lower body injuries
are usually a sign of bad things to come.
Yeah.
So I've actually only got one other younger edge who I would consider possible because
he's probably going to be around the same money.
If you're priced out of AJ Epineza, you might be able to get Andrew Van Ginkl for a little
cheaper.
Yeah.
So we played against him with Miami.
He was always in Josh Allen's face when he was on the field.
Juice pass rusher on the edge who gets absolutely bullied on rundowns.
So that's the problem.
You're looking at Andrew Van Ginkl as almost like a hybrid OLB DE who is a situational
pass rusher.
And so you're not going to have- he's not taking a bite out of that 67% snap share that
they lost at edge.
That's significant enough to really make any kind of difference, especially if you're
paying more than three or $4 million a year for him.
And so, and he's young enough that somebody might pay him three years, six million, right?
Yeah.
Absolutely.
I do have, you know, Leonard Floyd, I think is a consideration depending on his money.
I think that his market, given how he kind of disappeared in the latter stages of the
season, his market might dip a little.
And if they are bargain shopping and he's sitting out there after the draft, you know,
if he's still out there after the draft pre-training camp, it might be somebody to say, hey, you
want to come in for two million, you know?
But we'll see.
He had another 10 sack plus season.
So there's always people, there's always money out there for somebody who gets 10 sacks.
So we'll see.
What do you think of, because this guy's hopped around a little bit too.
I mean, what do you think of Cleveland Feral taking a flyer on that dude?
Like, I know-
Wasn't he like picked fourth overall?
He was fourth overall by the Raiders, overdrafted, not coached well, moved on to San Francisco,
no idea what interest San Francisco has in resigning him at this point.
But I mean, he's got the draft pedigree.
He's a kid entering his prime.
If you're going to lose Epineza, he almost immediately replaces that body type.
He is a project.
Don't get me wrong.
He's a reclamation project to some extent, but he's played better in the scheme that
San Francisco runs, which is very similar to the scheme that McDormitt wants to run
to.
I don't know what his market is going to look like, but do we take a reclamation project
like that and bank on the pedigree and add a little bit of youth to that room?
I think, you know, I always cop out with this on this pod if the money's right.
Yeah, I know.
That's the caveat on all of this.
Because the thing is, like, for some reason, the way the league is structured, the way
the league works, being picked fourth overall is worth more money.
You know, like it just is.
Even late in your career, even when you're a clear draft bust, considering what you've
done so far, sometimes it equals more money because you do have some of those elite measurables.
And so you can market them around to teams.
If the money's right, sure.
I would say that only if the money, it only fits like a minimum, vet minimum, or slightly
over a vet minimum deal because, and here's a big thing, one of the biggest worries I
have for this offseason is with the massive turnover at defensive tackle and defensive
end, they don't have Eric Washington anymore, who I think is an excellent defensive line
coach.
He left for Chicago and he took people with him.
And so I worry about that room and they just signed, I forget who they just signed to the
defensive line coach position, but they have a new coach there.
We'll look that up for a future pod and talk about the soft season and training and those
sorts of things.
But it's the kind of thing where we knew the defensive line room was pretty strong with
coaching, pretty strong with talent development.
We don't know that for sure now.
So projects kind of scare me a little bit, especially if there's any money involved.
Yeah.
It's almost got to be a defensive line, like a money ball approach.
And I think you set it up perfectly.
The percentage of snaps they need to replace.
They need to bring in guys that can, yes, you want production.
You want forced fumbles.
You want sacks.
You want high tackle rates.
You want all those things, right?
But you also just need to fill a snap share in a free agent market that is down this
year.
So here's the argument for a guy like Farrell, right?
He's 26, going to be 27 next year, has the draft pedigree of number one of a round one
pick arguably had probably his best season of his career, maybe safer like his rookie
year, which was also not great, three and a half sacks on a 45% snap share for San Francisco.
So played 465 snaps this year, 15 solo tackles, 13 assisted tackles and one forced fumble.
I would take those numbers from a guy in a situational role that we were paying $3.5
to $4 million a year for, right?
Yeah, for sure.
And I think that, you know, for, like I said, if we're going bargain shopping, you know,
DJ Wanham, probably four or less million per year out of Minnesota, right?
Young 26, somebody you could kind of take a fly around me like, we're going to give
you 20% of the 30% of the snaps, you know, and you're a player that he's a 65, 258.
So he's like the bills, the bills have an archetype at edge.
And that's it.
Von Miller was kind of an, that was a departure.
I would also see, you know, Andrew Van Ginkel as a massive departure at edge for the bills
because they, they like a, somebody plus two, 250 or more, who's six, four or taller because
they want to set the edge with that wingspan.
And so I see, you know, Anthony Jennings for five or million less, formerly of the Patriots,
26, DJ Wanham, Darnell Taylor from Seattle as a possibility, six, four, two, 50, you
know, like they're all kind of, but none of them are going to provide you anything extremely,
you know, going to provide you upside really like, like somebody like Taekwondo Lewis out
of Indianapolis, somebody I really like, if the bills are willing to spend six million
on somebody and they lose, they don't have AJ coming back.
Taekwondo Lewis is a 63, 260, 270, and he has been well rated in terms of pass rush
and run stopping.
So those are some names to think about as we go.
Anything else about the defensive end, you could also maybe get some of that minimum
deals on some like extremely old names that you might recognize like Kalaise Campbell,
Brandon Graham, they're probably both going to be less than three million, but somebody
who's who you know, knows what to do.
Right.
And these are exactly the type of guys who after the draft will be unsigned and this
is when Brandon Bain will come knocking.
Like do you want to take a flyer for two and a half million on a one year, right?
And play with a competitor because that's the other thing is that the bills have a
carrot in the free agency pool that they never had through the drought, which is do you want
to play with a team that's going to be there in the last eight of the season?
Exactly.
Exactly, for sure.
Yeah.
So we'll see.
And there are guys that will absolutely do that.
And these veteran dudes like Leonard Floyd, Campbell, they want to pick their spots.
They want to get paid, but they want to pick their spots also at the stage of the career.
They don't want to waste the limited amount of years they have like not contending.
They're ring chasing.
Exactly.
So if Kansas City or San Francisco doesn't call, then the bills are probably up there.
There you go.
It's got to be, right?
It's got to be.
Yeah, absolutely.
Yeah, man.
No, it's going to be, it's probably going to be an uneventful.
I'd love to be surprised, but it's going to be an uneventful free agency for the bills.
They're going to stabilize some rooms, raise the floor talent wise in some of these rooms,
but no big splashes, no big splashes this off season, I think.
All right, man.
You want to transition to our alternate draft universe?
Yes, absolutely.
So just to give folks an idea of where JJ and I have been at with draft prep.
I am an anti-mock draft guy until free agency hits.
I just don't think there's a lot of utility in doing them because free agency is going
to reset so many needs for so many teams to where all of these mock drafts that we're
seeing on the athletic and the ringer and ESPN, they're going to change wildly based
off of that.
So in my draft prep, I started going through what the bills needs were going to be this
year, try to like extrapolate where I thought the, their actual needs in the draft would
land after free agency.
And then it just got me thinking because I was going back and I was looking at the holes
on the roster.
And this whole experiment started with, why haven't we been drafting more defensive tackles
outside of that Oliver?
And this whole thing JJ started with that text that I sent you that we hadn't drafted
a defensive tackle to this unit since at Oliver.
And then I started pulling other playoff contenders, the chiefs in that same time span had drafted
five, the Steelers had drafted seven, right?
The Eagles had drafted four.
I'm like, what was going on with the bills?
And then I started looking back at some of their draft history.
And I think JJ, you and other members of Bill's mafia would agree that 2019 to 2021 were maybe
the leanest draft years in the Brandon being era.
17 was before being got there, but that was McDermott's first full draft and his fingerprints
were all over that 18, I think an indisputable hit.
I think 22 and 23, the bills got some viable starters out of those two drafts, but that
three year gap where the bills were spending on mid tier to higher priced free agency talent.
I just couldn't wrap my brain around why so many needs that we have now were not addressed
back then.
So I went back and I looked to 2019 and 2021 and I decided to do an experiment.
I decided to do the Brandon being alternate draft universe.
Here are the rules that went with that.
This is not a typical, let's go back and redraft everybody from the year because you're starting
to see a lot of those come up with the 2023 draft class and everyone who has Pukinakua
is like the number four pick.
That's not realistic, right?
Of course with full hindsight, we know Pukinakua probably goes in the first round.
If we know the type of production he has this year.
So I tried to limit hindsight as much as I possibly could.
So when I went and redrafted, I stayed within the round that players were picked in.
So if I picked a player that was different than what being picked as part of this experiment,
I picked another guy who was taken in that round after the player being really drafted
was taken.
And I did that because like at that point, there was usually a lot of consensus on boards
of where of where guys fit within the draft rounds.
And I wanted to stick with that reality at the time as much as as much as I possibly could.
This also assumes a couple of things.
One, Josh Allen still ascends on the way that he ascended still has his breakout year in
2020.
And this also assumes that Sean McDermott all of a sudden became willing to play rookies.
Which is the biggest assumption out of this whole thing.
But it was a really fun exercise to do this alternate draft universe.
And you can see how if just a couple of things went differently, how this sets up the bills
roster in such a different way right now.
So JJ, are you ready to go through 2019, 2020 and 2021, the alternate bills draft universe?
Let's jump in our alternate universe machine and make it happen.
All right, man.
So 2019, round one, the pick was at Oliver at defensive tackle.
I didn't change it.
I think and especially moving on and moving forward, where you see where the bills were
slotted to draft year after year, there were not a lot of viable defensive tackle pieces
that they could have drafted to supplement Oliver at that point.
So I keep Oliver here at defensive tackle, knowing that later on down the road, it's
going to be harder and harder to draft for that three tech position.
Round two, 2019, Cody Ford, your favorite offensive tackle slash offensive guard ever
selected in Bill's history.
I don't even want to talk about Cody Ford, he was like, I don't, I mean, I probably would
have drafted him in the second round too, but it's the kind of thing where somebody
sometimes traits don't equal talent or work ethic, right?
Like sometimes they say the right things in the interviews and make you believe and then
get them in the facility and they're always injured or they just don't ever take that
step.
Yep.
Absolutely.
We might be seeing some of that with Kyre Elam based on some of his tweets and posts
recently.
So here's the pick that I make here.
I do it with the philosophy of you are the bills, you've got this rookie QB, yes, and
free agency at this point, you've already professionalized the wide receiver room.
You've got Colbeasley, you've got John Brown, you're bringing in reliable targets for him.
But I decided here that the move was to go wide receiver and I go AJ Brown.
For those of you who don't remember AJ Brown's rookie season, he was a man on fire with Tennessee.
He had over a thousand receiving yards and eight TDs on about 85 perceptions in his first
year with Tennessee.
This gives Josh Allen a young number one wide receiver target that also resets the domino
line as a result of that for how the bills would approach future drafts in this alternate
draft scenario.
Round three, Devin Singletary was the real pick.
I stuck with Singletary, like the bills needed to do something in the running back room.
In round three, there was nothing better between there and when the bills made their next pick,
which was in 2019 Dawson Knox.
This might be the most controversial move that I made because philosophically at the
time, the book on young QBs is that they needed a big tight end to chew up perceptions in
the middle of the field to give them a safety net.
After bringing in Brown and Beasley and free agency, the bills were looking for that safety
net in 2019.
They decided to draft Dawson Knox, someone who could grow up potentially as a pass catcher
with Josh Allen.
I didn't do that.
I went with Conor McGovern, the current Conor McGovern, who is on the team, thinking to
the future with a lot of veteran laden pieces on this offensive line that they needed to
add a little bit of youth at that point.
So I go Conor McGovern on the offensive line.
Any notes for me so far, JJ?
No, I love it, and I think that part of the part of the hatred on Dawson Knox is that
his contract at $14 million per year hit is so much higher than his product productivity.
And he's got he's had drops and he's been injured.
He still don't think he's a bad tight end.
I think he's a tight end, but he's definitely not worth the money.
And he's been a pretty massive disappointment on his availability.
Yeah, I don't disagree with that.
I love that you've kept Oliver on Singletary because I think you're right.
To be true to this experiment, you have to kind of stay in the mind state of that roster
at that time.
And they had a top 10 or top 11 pick for Oliver.
And yeah, he was number nine.
Yeah, number nine.
And they did need a young running back because the only person in the room after they let
go of LaShawn McCoy was Frank Gore.
So they needed somebody.
They needed to reset the table there and going young makes a lot of makes a lot of sense as
opposed to sinking cap into a vet.
I think you're never ever ever going to get any sort of opposition from me for picking
offensive line on the first four rounds.
I know you're you're going to love these future drafts.
Then let me tell you, you're going to love it.
All right.
So round four bills don't have a pick in round four and 2019.
We move on round five.
The actual pick Voshawn Joseph, who I had to look up who this was outside linebacker.
The bills, the bills as you look at their real draft history have drafted a lot of linebackers
cheating, they've drafted more linebackers than offensive linemen and wide receivers under
beans tenure.
Well, you know, because you're a you're part of an organization that drafted Luke Keekley.
Yeah, I know.
So you just like have this you just have you're like they can fix everything.
If I have this one piece, they can fix the defense completely.
I mean, Iber Iberfluss and Iberfluss in Chicago is the same way.
They have signed and drafted a ton of linebackers, right?
Like a lot of these coaches, they love that position.
So here's where I do a double dip and I go wide receiver again.
You keep in mind you've got Cole Beasley on the roster, but you know, he's now a veteran
with a skill set that was very, I think beneficial for Allen at that moment.
But you're going to double down in this round.
You're going to go Hunter Renfrow.
Now Renfrow I know had a dip in production this year and his stay under McDaniels with
the Raiders was a little bit odd.
His usage went down.
But I think we all remember Hunter Renfrow was an absolute beast and reception magnet
from 2019 all the way through 2021.
It's only in these past couple of years when Daniels took over the Raiders that his production
really dipped off.
So I give the bills a hedge with John Brown by drafting AJ Brown and some competition
in the slot with Hunter Renfrow, an elite route runner who is a very, very good catcher
of the football, which is something the bills have really lacked.
Jekwan Johnson, the safety pick in round six.
Here's where I go linebacker for the bills and I take David Long, Jr.
And I was shocked because this dude has a became a quality starter in the league, right?
But he was a six round draft pick.
So I've got him backing up Matt Milano on the depth chart.
Amazing.
It's a just incredible.
Fringe Pro Bowler, yeah.
Absolutely.
An elite in the run stopping game, which in that nickel package you really need.
So Daryl Johnston, Jr. is the pick in round seven.
I go miles Gaskin and I double dip here into running back as well because as we have said,
after McCoy departs, they really got to restock that room.
And Gaskin has had a lot of success catching balls out of the backfield.
And then the final pick in 2019 was Tommy Sweeney.
I kept it to Tommy Sweeney because you need a tight end.
I wouldn't have double dipped a tight end in this particular draft, but taking a tight
end here in round seven makes sense.
All right.
And how does this, in your imagination, how does this all shake out for the season then?
I think AJ Brown has an absolute monster rookie season still.
And I think he gives Josh Allen a safety blanket deep down the field.
He immediately starts taking the top off defenses because remember in 2019, no one thought Josh
could throw the ball with any kind of accuracy.
So they were begging, they were begging the bills to like go deep and take those shots
that they thought Allen was going to miss.
Brown, similar to the role that Diggs played, was an equalizer deep down the field.
You saw it in Tennessee with Ryan Sanahill to get a thought over a thousand yards on
just 85 receptions and a reception average of 20 yards per reception in his rookie season,
absolutely out of his mind, right?
So this resets the table at wide receiver.
John Brown becomes a cap casualty and you see Hunter Renfrow very slowly start to take
snaps away from Cole Beasley and assert himself as a very, very cheap rookie contract.
They can equal the productivity there.
And then the defense is really buoyed by Trey White, who still emerges as a star at this
time, Matt Milano, who makes a name for himself.
Taryn Johnson also emerges this season as well.
But then on top of that, you've got this depth to the defense you've added and you've got
a young and up and coming offensive linemen in McGovern that you can kind of work into
your system early on without putting pressure on him to start right away.
So this is a table setting year for the bills, right?
I still have them making the playoffs in my fantasy world.
I still have them losing, right?
And I have them trying to find a way to find more receptions across the middle of the field
as a result of how the season ends for them, which brings us to my friend 2020.
Are you ready to move on?
I am scintillating.
All right.
So this is a big one.
And I think other than the docks thing, the knocks thing, this is going to be seen as
maybe the second most controversial move, though I think a lot of bills mafia would probably
at this point support it.
So remember the Buffalo Bills do not have a number one wide receiver for Josh Allen
in real life at this point.
This is the year they trade a number one draft pick for Stefan Diggs that ends up being
the number 22 draft pick.
In my world, AJ Brown has emerged as the clear young stud number one wide receiver on the
screw.
So the bills retain that pick in this draft and they use it at number 22 to draft Justin
Jefferson at LSU.
All right.
So now here is your pairing and here's how the wide receiver room is starting to shake
out in your top four.
You've got AJ Brown, Justin Jefferson, Cole Beasley and Hunter Renfrow in the slot.
And you still have a little bit of a void and like that power slot middle of the field
tight end type of role, but we'll address that later in the draft.
Number two, the bills, which was their first pick in 2020, take AJ Epinezza.
I keep the pick the same pick up and as a because when you look at where they were at
on the defensive line, they needed youth, they needed pop, they need past rush viability
there.
So I keep Epinezza at that point.
All right.
Round three, this is the Zach Moss deal because they drafted two running backs in the year
prior with Gaskin and Singletary.
I don't have them spending a round three pick here with Moss because it would be a bad use
of the pick.
I have them instead taking Cam Danzler, who is the highly effective cover corner for
Minnesota for so many years at this point.
But JJ Danzler is a guy who you've often targeted for the bills and trade packages.
What is your take on Danzler being drafted by the bills as a rook in 2020?
I mean, it would have fixed kind of what we talked about so often with the bills having
that like CB2 always being a question mark and always being somebody who is like just
good enough.
The Dane Jackson's of the world, it would solve for a lot of things.
The Levi Wallace conundrum.
Yeah, the Levi Wallace conundrum.
Exactly.
Like, this is a player that's good enough, but are they good?
No, Danzler has an incredible ball skills and also just that nose for the football.
Danzler reminds me a lot of Russell Douglas and the way that he plays the game.
It would have elevated and escalated kind of the bills achievement to have Trey White
across from Cam Danzler.
And it would have changed some of the variability of not this past season, but the one prior
when Trey White was coming back from injury or the one before that when he was down with
injury.
I think there's a lot more positive outcomes if you have Cam Danzler out there as a young
corner to take over those sort of CB1 roles when you're down your Trey White.
Yep, absolutely.
100%.
Round four, the bills in 2020 take Gabe Davis.
I kept the pick here the same.
There wasn't anyone at a position of need to me that was better.
And Davis added something to this wide receiver room in his size, run blocking ability.
And then in my fantasy world, his ability to exploit the middle of the field is kind
of like a de facto big bodied pass catcher that I think brought utility and filled a
hole here and like a power slot role for the Buffalo Bills.
Round five, Jake Fromm QB out of Georgia, right?
He was Georgia, I think.
Yeah.
Kept the pick the same.
And no one here that was really better for me.
Round six, Tyler Bass.
I know we're so sore about it, but Tyler Bass for the most part has been a really good
kicker outside of the season for the Bills.
They needed that special teams pop.
I keep the pick the same here.
Isaiah Hodgins is the wide receiver pick in 2020 in round six.
Because I have taken Jefferson and Gabe Davis, I don't triple dip here.
I go corner again.
I go, Isaiah Rogers, the undersized, but strong and fierce and speedy DB that made the Bills
that made Bills lives fans hell when they would play Indianapolis, which is the team
he was ultimately drafted to.
So Isaiah Rogers here is interesting, JJ, because he is small in frame, but his speed
makes him a viable outside option.
And he has an absolute ballhawk.
This dude is like a pick every time the ball gets thrown his way.
So I take him who excuse me, in addition to Dancer and all of a sudden you see how this
cornerback room is is is kind of detailing out.
And then finally around seven and 2020, Dane Jackson, because we have taken Rogers and because
we have taken Dancer at this point, I go linebacker again, I go inside linebacker this time with
Tay Crowder, who is a ultimately productive sort of pro and in the Bills system could
be interesting for sure.
So JJ, after the Bills have that draft in pocket, we head into the 2020 season.
Now, remember, in 2020, the Bills and Josh Allen have that weird COVID breakout year.
Fans are not necessarily in the stadium, but Josh Allen really a sense.
Now he does so with Stefan Diggs being on the roster.
This is also the year remember that Milano gets hurt.
From Milano, I think we only got seven games on him that year, which really, really hurt
this Buffalo Bills defense.
Flash forward to fantasy land, where the Buffalo Bills have a duo of Justin Jefferson, who
in his rookie season, I just want to remind everybody how much of a baller he was in 2020.
1400 total yards on 88 receptions for an average reception yardage of 15.9 yards, longest reception
being 71 yards, and he had seven toties that season put next to AJ Brown, who in his second
year with Tennessee in the real world had over 1200 yards and 11 receptions on the outside.
JJ, this is a this is as dynamic a duo as the Bills have ever had in their history,
right in fantasy land again.
I also have Josh Allen still having his breakout season with these two winning the MVP.
Cole Beasley, because of his COVID controversies and his cap number ultimately gets replaced
by Hunter Renfrow here, still trying to stick to reality as much as possible.
Milano goes down so David Long Jr. starts to emerge as a very solid starter in place
of him, but it's still not enough for the Bills and the AFC Championship round against
the Chiefs because they're so vulnerable in the middle of the field.
And you've got Cam Danceler who had just replaced Levi Wallace in my world later on in the season,
still kind of taken his reps in.
The Buffalo Bills will ultimately lose this game in an epic shootout against the Kansas
City Chiefs and the AFC Championship in the end of the 2020 season.
But this is the year this accelerates the clock on the Bills going all in.
Because remember, the Bills really didn't go all in with that Von Miller with that Von
Miller signing until after the 13 second game, right?
Because of how this draft has fallen and the youth in production they've been able to establish
on the roster, they are ready to crack that Super Bowl window wide open on Fantasyland,
which brings us to 2021.
Now JJ, we all remember this as the boogie bash on Greg Russo doubled it.
Hold on.
I would like to just say for the listeners, this entire long experiment was done to get
us to this one moment and what happens in the second round.
That is correct.
The entire thing.
If you're with us this long, it's going to pay off.
It's going to pay off.
At least in Fantasyland.
Stay tuned.
So here we go.
2021 draft, Greg Russo was the actual pick.
And I still have it at Greg Russo, right?
I mean, the Bills were still looking for edge, pass, rush, help.
He had traits, right?
There's guys that were taken in round two that you could argue ended up being more productive,
but sticking with the experiment, I stuck with guys solely drafted in that round.
Round two, boogie bash them.
I keep boogie bash them.
I'm just playing.
I don't keep boogie bash them at all.
It's like, I don't think that's what's written on the script, my friend.
I don't keep boogie bash them.
Creed Humphrey, which we all know should have been the pick.
Yes.
And remember, the Buffalo Bills offensive line is laden with veterans, but this is also
the season where that offensive line starts to take a step back, right?
This is the Ryan Bates year because we just can't figure out the right side of that offensive
line.
So Creed Humphrey comes into the fold.
Spencer Brown, the pick and round three.
I keep them as the pick and round three, right?
He's become a viable starter.
Tommy Doyle.
I got God, the straff was so weird.
Double dip it edge, double dip it tackle.
Tommy Doyle is the pick here.
I do not have Tommy Doyle is the pick here.
I've got Tolona, Hofunga, defensive back.
Am I saying that right?
He's the dude on San Francisco.
He's starting in the Super Bowl this Sunday, right?
Fifth round.
Thank you.
He's starting in the Super Bowl this week.
He's got a lot of positional versatility in that secondary.
And when you look at the Levi Wallace persistence, when you look at how comfortable they got
with Poyer and Hyde, they were not thinking to the future in this, in this particular
position grew.
So I've changing that up and I've got Hofunga here as the pick and round five.
Marquez Stevenson, absolute flame on it.
Wide receiver is the real life pick in round six.
I have the bills trading this pick and Levi Wallace for Zach Hertz because in fantasy
land, Cam Dancer is your guy.
You've got Isaiah Rogers.
You've got Taryn Johnson.
You still have Trey White, even though this is going to be his injury season.
Levi Wallace becomes expendable.
Now in real life, Zach Hertz went for a five and Tay Gowen, who is the rookie defensive
back out of the university of central Florida.
I've got the bills trading a similar amount of trade value with a better player to finally
get Josh the tight end that he needs to exploit the middle of the field in the Siemens Act
Hertz.
DeMar Hamlin is the pick here in real life after Stevenson.
This is where I go Tay Gowen.
I go back to back defensive backs.
Tay Gowen charted is a cornerback, but really had a lot of utility coming out of UCF in
the, in various roles in the secondary.
So I give McDermott a couple of late round chess pieces.
Rashad Wild Goose, the very, very short tenured cornerback out of Wisconsin, round six and
2021.
I take Trace Smith, man.
And that often, I basically steal from the chiefs everything they use to re fortify that
offensive line.
And I give it to our Josh Allen, right?
And then Jackie Anderson, another offensive tackle is the pick in round seven.
I pick a punter.
I pick Presley Harvin, third, who is still punting for Pittsburgh these days.
And it solidifies the special team punter position.
No more Matt Hawk.
No more inconsistency with Sam Martin.
We just draft a young punter and then we just let him roll with it.
So I will say, however, that's, that's maybe the only part of this whole experiment that
I disagree.
I think Presley Harvin has been a nice punter.
He's one of the most volatile punters in the league in terms of like he either cranks
it 63 yards inside the 20 or he duffs it 12 yards and they return it for a touchdown.
Like it's really tough.
All we, we've just basically drafted like Corey Boracas or whoever that guy was that
we had, right?
Before the quiz.
Boy, yeah, there you go.
Right.
There you go.
So in 2021, we all know what the real result is.
It is 13 seconds and it is heartbreaking, but the bills feel like they've got something
that they can build on and they're a few pieces away.
So this is the all in year or next year is the all in year.
I've got the bills going all in here, man.
So remember in season, this is the year that the Rams won the Super Bowl and they traded
a second and a third in the 2022 draft for Von Miller further from the Denver Broncos.
I've got the bills making that move mid season instead of the Rams for the exact same draft
package because in fantasy land, the clock has now turned up and it's not 2022.
That's the all in year.
So this is the year of 2021 and as a result of that, Cam Danzler with another year under
his belt, Renfro, Jefferson and A.J. Brown with two more seasons and with another season
under their belt, add the professionalism of Zach Ertz over the middle and the infusion
of young talent to solidify the right side of that offensive line with Humphrey and Smith
splitting reps at guard and then you still have Spencer Brown over there as well.
JJ, I have Josh Allen winning back to back MVPs and the Buffalo Bills cruising to a victory
over the Kansas City Chiefs because they cannot stop the combo of Von Miller and Jerry Hughes
on the edge because Jerry Hughes, a revitalized Jerry Hughes who had his best seasons when
he had a running mate to go with, right?
He's got a running mate back.
Jerry Hughes is revitalized.
We never have the debate about trading or cutting Jerry Hughes on this pod, but more
importantly, the bills cure the curse of the Kansas City Chiefs.
They move on to the Super Bowl and in 2021, JJ, with this roster, the Buffalo Bills win
the Super Bowl.
So I just sweet, just a sweet, sweet ending to this experiment.
Sweet sweet ending to a dream in fantasy land that is not the reality that we live in.
I know, but this is a roster that could have done it.
And then when you think about how it sets the bills up for so many of their needs that
they had to draft more in 2022, that's the Kyrie Elamir because they hadn't really addressed
cornerback in a meaningful way.
Dancer and all of that changes it, right?
It really changes the future of this team.
So side by side, reality roster fantasy redraft.
Josh Allen is your QB in both.
Devin Singletary as you're starting running back in both.
Dawson Knox in reality in 2021 versus Zach Ertz in the fantasy Super Bowl year.
Diggs in reality, Justin Jefferson as your number one wide receiver.
Gabe Davis is your number two wide out.
AJ Brown is your number two wide out.
Cole Beasley was there in 2021.
It's Hunter Renfrow this time.
Emmanuel Sanders, you remember Emmanuel Sanders being on the team?
Love the Emmanuel Sanders for one year.
He was great.
I loved him too.
The bills can never figure out how to use him.
You've got Gabe Davis as your number four power slot receiver here.
Dawkins is on the offensive line.
You have Conor McGovern though, instead of Eichbacher who ended up starting meaningful
snaps for the bills that year.
Mitch Morris is still your center, but instead of Darryl Williams on the right side guard,
you've got Creed Humphrey and Trace Smith splitting snaps.
How sweet is that?
Oh, I can.
And then you have your Mitch Morris replacement of the future, which resets the clock on the
cap a little bit earlier for the bills too because you're not carrying Morris's contract
anymore.
And then Spencer Brown over on the right hand side.
On defense, you had Greg Rousseau and you had Jerry Hughes on the edge.
Here you have Von Miller and Jerry Hughes on the edge with Rousseau playing a meaningful
situational role.
Ed Oliver and Star Latoulou are the same on both, right?
You got Matt Milano, Tremaine Edmonds the same on both, but this is the biggest difference,
man.
And this was the year that Trey White went down.
You were starting Dane Jackson and Levi Wallace in 2021.
Here you've got Cam Danzler, Isaiah Rogers, Taryn Johnson, Jordan Poirin, Micahyd.
Dude, this is a Super Bowl roster.
That defense is nasty.
Well, and the defense doesn't even matter when your weapons are Devon Singletary.
I mean, who we all agree is a solid starting running back.
Zach Hertz, Justin Jefferson, AJ Brown, Hunter Renfrow, and then Gabe Davis as your best.
Your fourth option.
Basically throwing blocks for guys.
In that reality where then you have Deon Dawkins who that was his first Pro Bowl year.
Correct.
Connor McGovern who is a above average starter, Mitch Morris of course, an above average center,
Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith.
So if anybody gets injured in the interior three, you're covered in every possible combination.
And then Spencer Brown, what was that year was a down year for him?
But you know, I mean, I don't hate Trey Smith playing outside snaps at tackle if you had
to have Spencer Brown's missing games.
Or even Ryan Bates because Bates is still on the roster at this point too, right?
No, I know, man.
What could have been and like that that was the fun but heartbreaking part of this exercise
is that these were guys that were drafted after the pick that being right.
They were available for this season.
They were available and this could have been the makeup of this roster.
Now it's easy to play hindsight, it's easy to play like Monday morning draft room GM
and all that other kind of stuff.
But again, I loved going through this exercise because it purged a lot of bad feelings I
had about recent bills draft memory so that I could reset my mind for doing draft preview
on this pod moving forward.
But like, man, what could have been like this is how close the bills have been in this era.
And that's a credit to it's a credit to Bean that they've been even this close.
But man, just a couple of moves different.
And this is a Buffalo Bill team.
We could be talking dynasty right now.
Let's be real.
Absolutely.
Yeah.
And the whole conversation with this team is it's not about it's the conversation
becomes can Patrick Mahomes get past Josh Allen?
I know that's the difference is like, can the chiefs get back to a Super Bowl and get
past the bills?
I know the road to the Super Bowl runs through the bills with Justin Jefferson and H.A.
Brown is the receiving dynamic.
Dude, it's just it's crazy.
It's fantasy land.
Like it obviously didn't happen, but still really fun exercise to go to in this multiverse
of Brandon Bean drafts.
So thank you JJ for letting me go through that exercise.
And thank you for everybody listening.
Hopefully you got something fun out of that other than like fire Brandon Bean.
That is not what we're advocating.
No, no, no, no, I think and we'll and we'll say to you and we say all the time teams the
draft is so variable.
Like you had the opportunity to look at it and be like, Oh, who's the best?
It's all hindsight.
Exactly.
I'm going to cherry pick the best players that were taken in each round.
Brandon Bean hits in terms of starter snaps.
He hits it probably 38 to 40 percent in his draft history with the bills.
The average for the league is around 33.
Bad teams are about 25.
It means about Bill Belichick's about 18 percent.
Belichick.
Yeah.
So on the employment line.
I know.
With all that said, like we are probing in every possible way and he has shown extremely
good draft acumen, especially this these past two years.
And you know, with occasional starters and other in other years, I think that the thing
that we're looking for is like, hopefully we have another a third consecutive year with
meaningful rookie snaps coming out of the draft at more than two positions.
And that's if the bills have that and that's the thing to, you know, put some hope out
there, Bill's mafia in the future.
If the bills are able to get two or three meaningful contributors from this draft class
at positions of need, we're we're as competitive as any team in the league for the next three
to five years.
Absolutely.
We reset the cap, but we also keep the Super Bowl window open, right?
Yes.
And beans got the capability to do that.
He really does.
So it's just these three draft classes really kind of set the bills back, I think a little
bit in the arc they wanted to be on.
But I think being as the guy that can get us back on track.
Absolutely.
Awesome, man.
Well, that was fun.
That was a that was an awesome pod free agency table set.
Next up JJ, we've got friends of the pod, not friends of the bills, helping to set the
table for what other AFC East teams are going to be doing to help dethrone the Buffalo bills.
We're going to have those segments coming up next week and the week following.
And then we are going to dig deep into the draft before we take, I think a much needed
break post Super Bowl in between the Super Bowl and free agency from potting for a little
bit.
So we're going to dig into the draft a little bit, set the table there, talk about AFC East
stuff.
And then, yeah, man, we're full bore into the off season.
Sound good?
Sounds good.
Yeah, go ahead.
Yeah, I just want to say, you know, because we look at our analytics every week and looks
like we have some new listeners.
Thank you for joining us here on Buffalo Bread and we appreciate the downloads and likes
and please continue to share the pod wherever you are.
Absolutely.
We appreciate it.
And in case you need a reminder of where we are, we are on Apple, Google Spotify, pretty
much where we put podcasts and always go bills.
So the rest of you, go ahead
and kill the empty box right now.
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