Alright, welcome back to the Buffalo Red Podcast.
We are recording January 19th, coming to you on Friday night, and looking at a divisional
matchup in Buffalo at Highmark Stadium with the heated Kansas City Chiefs, who have not
traveled to Highmark Stadium since the COVID year 2020, and they appeared there with no
fans in the stands and in that game, Clyde Edwards-Eleir ran for over 100 yards.
I think Bill's mafia is itching to see their first ever Allen Mahomes matchup in person,
live, and in the snow and cold of Orchard Park.
What do you think of that, Dan?
Let's get the people ready.
JJ, the stakes could not be higher for this game.
I don't think there's enough words in the English language and enough descriptors to
properly evaluate how Bill's mafia is feeling right now, but hyped, I think, is the absolute
of pitamy of where this fan base is at.
We have been building it feels like to this moment, and if the bills were ever going to
go on a Super Bowl run, we have all probably envisioned it in this way, where we had to
go through Patrick Mahomes, slay that dragon, send the grim reaper to bed, on our way to
a Super Bowl, and we have here our opportunity.
The fan base is jacked.
JJ, the way this team is talking, they seem absolutely ready to meet this challenge.
I could not be more excited for Sunday.
Excited and just terrified.
I think that this this match because this is it, right?
Like this is that moment, the defining moment of the season in which this Buffalo Bill's
team is the same old Ken McDermott get over the hump is Stefan Diggs unhappy Ken Josh
Allen ever be a championship quarterback.
All those questions are piling up like the snow drifts and Buffalo waiting for this match
up to answer them.
And this is it, right?
I think that entering the season, entering every season since the kind of quote unquote
Super Bowl window has opened has been championship or bust.
But I think truly to call this season a success, the bills cannot exit in the divisional around
for a third straight year.
No, I think that is 100% correct.
And we have talked about this with the context of McDermott as the head coach of this team,
usually at the forefront.
If this team, which as it began this run in that COVID year of 2020 into the postseason
of 2021, they exited in the AFC championship game and have not been back since you could
call it regression to not reach that level again, you could call it stagnation or at
the very least plateauing.
But at the end of the day, this is the hump this team needs to get over in order to accomplish
what their ultimate goal is.
I feel you on the trepidation, I'm usually there with the rest of Bill's mafia, but
there is a different vibe JJ around this like there is a there is like a we are all in this
pushing in the same direction type of feeling with this squad.
As you listen to a lot of these pregame press conferences, they seem ready to meet this
challenge.
And JJ, this is what they've been preparing and building towards year after year, every
since they got that taste of postseason success after the 2020 season.
They have wanted to secure home field advantage for this very reason to pull in Patrick Mahomes
and pull in the rival Kansas City Chiefs into their confines of Highmark Stadium in front
of their fan base and tilt the advantage of playing location and their favor.
But more importantly than I think the strategic desires that they have around bringing this
game to Buffalo, they have wanted the fan base to bask in what could be not a culminating
victory because there would still feasibly be two more games to go if the bills won this.
But I think I think an era defining win, which is what the McDermott era lacks right now.
McDermott has coached a lot of great games.
He's coached a lot of questionable games.
But if you were to ask your run of the mill bills fan, what is the Sean McDermott era
been most known for?
They would probably tell you 13 seconds.
This is an opportunity with a victory in Highmark on our terms, on our field in front of our
fans, we can finally get that era defining win for this generation of bills fans and
this generation of bills players as well.
And because of that, I'm not feeling the usual trauma induced past bills fan behavior
trepidation that I normally feeling it.
I'm feeling like I'm ready for this moment.
I'm feeling like I want this moment.
And if the bills lose that might make the letdown a little bit more unsufferable than
it would have been otherwise.
But JJ, if they win the high that we're going to feel from this is going to be absolutely
immeasurable.
Dan, I couldn't agree with you more and I'm there with you.
And I think that, you know, I say terrified, horrified, whatever I might say, because it's
just because the stakes are so high.
But I too am feeling that kind of there is a scintillating energy flowing around Bill's
Mafia right now, because this again, like you mentioned, is what we've been wanting
so badly.
Patrick Mahomes has established himself as, you know, the top of the top in the QB, QB,
you know, pyramid.
And rightly so, you know, he's got an MVP, he's got multiple Super Bowl rings at this
point in his young career.
But this season, with that offense in Kansas City, not necessarily operating at the high
kind of electric levels you've been, you know, known to expect from the Kansas City Chiefs.
And Patrick Mahomes, having sort of a bad look in multiple games this season, you know,
crybaby appearances on the sidelines, screaming at profanities at referees for not warning
his team, they were breaking the rules.
All of that is kind of building up to this point, where, you know, what like you mentioned,
the statement about Bill's Mafia being present for this game and this matchup is so much
bigger than just it's an inconvenience to go on the road.
Patrick Mahomes has never played in a hostile stadium in the playoffs, not once in his career.
He's always been at GHA Field in Kansas City, or he's been at a neutral site for a Super
Bowl.
He's never had to go anywhere.
The AFC Championship game has been played in Kansas City most of the, I think all of
the past five or six years.
And it's the ability for the Bill's Mafia, the stadium, the atmosphere to have an impact
on this game, I think is one of the biggest X factors that people are talking about.
But I don't know that they're really talking about it, right?
Like, I think that everyone's like, Oh, Patrick Mahomes gonna have to travel, we'll see what
this team looks like on the road.
But they've traveled before, they played in Super Bowls.
And that I don't know that anyone's ready for what, what this fan base is going to bring
to that field on Sunday night.
They're going to be sourced just to, you know, public service announcement, take care of
each other.
We don't want anything bad to happen.
You know, have a good time, be super loud, but don't, you know, look after each other
because it's going to be pretty, you know, and start praying for each other's livers
right now, because I think that's going to be, you know, it's a long day of tailgating
before that game and that matchup, but I expect to see the snow cannons in the air.
I expect to see, you know, the refs warning the fans that they should not be throwing
snowballs on the field.
Just quick, quick FYI about that.
There is no rule in the NFL handbook at all that says that fans interaction with snow
in the field or the field surface can be held against the team of any kind.
So you know, I'm not telling you to do that, but I'm saying that they can actually penalize
the bills.
I've seen it before.
It's always false.
They can't actually do that.
But, and we can talk about officiating because of freaking Sean Hockley, but, but yeah, it's
going to be a wild experience.
And I am, I'm here for it.
I'm so excited to see this Kansas City offense, which again has kind of taken a step back
this year, trying to operate under the roar of the crowd.
And I think that's a good segue.
They can't saying, talking about the Kansas City offense and it being a different type
of beast than we have faced in the regular season and post season and years past because
it is a squad.
I think that as we have talked about, we have previewed Kansas City once already.
And in that preview, we talked about what was different about this KC squad.
I think one thing has been the tackle play.
The other thing has been the wide receiver play.
And then I think the third thing that people have talked less about has was that triumphant
of Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reed and Eric Biedemey being broken up, right?
All of those things.
And as a result of that, Kansas City has had to find a different way to win this season.
It's been on the back of what is an elite defense that Patrick Mahomes is now now has
a benefit to himself.
The one year where finally we get Kansas City and maybe a vulnerable spot offensively, they
roll out what is a top seven defense by DVOA.
But the bills JJ have been winning in a similar way to and it's crazy because the bills we
have said so many times and a lot of ways use the chiefs as a measuring stick.
And there have been game previews in the past where we've been like these teams are basically
mirror images of these chudder.
And it is almost uncanny in a season where the chief's offense has been his regress and
they had to find a new way to win.
The bills have had to find multiple new ways to win as well this season.
They've won in a lot of games with defense, despite the plethora of injuries they've
faced.
They have won more in the ground game this season than I would say they have with the
passing game as well.
Both of these teams, the media has told us are vulnerable and have risk and are not the
same squads they were before, but I think what we have seen over the course of the season
have been two elite squads that have had to find different versions of themselves in order
to remain competitive in order to win.
And now those two things come to a head here.
So I think whatever the outcome of this game is, it's going to be the path to that is going
to be unlike anything that we've seen between these two teams before because we're used
to shoot out games.
These two QBs dominating and I don't know that we're necessarily going to see that
this game.
These teams have seen a lot of each other over the past five years.
This is basically a divisional game.
Everybody knows what the other is bringing to the table and both of these teams have
some new additional tools in their tool belt to secure a victory that they haven't brought
to the table before by way of really, really elite defensive play.
And on the bill side of the ball, a new kind of physicality in the way they play offense.
And I think this is going to be unlike any entry we have seen in the series before and
I'm ready to get into it.
What about you?
Yeah, absolutely.
And I think that this in a lot of ways could look like like the street fight that, you know,
the Steelers game showed up to be because again, what the similarities between that game and
this game are that these two teams both tend to be defense first forward and find a way
to win on offense.
And that's not like you said, that's not the story of a couple of, you know, Formula
One cars showing up to the starting line with a clean track in front of them, like it has
been in previous matchups and critical moments.
And I think you saw, you know, Kansas City had pretty domineering victory against the
Dolphins, which is a high flying offense because again, defense led the way and then their
offense did what it had to do, you know, with some opportunities.
I think that's, you know, that's the game you're going to see here.
And certainly we can get in that down the road of score predictions.
But yeah, I mean, let's start, you know, I think that where we should go with the pod
is to we can just jump right into discussing kind of Casey offense versus Bill's defense.
And then I would ask you, Dan, throughout this, this conversation, sprinkle in some
observations you made about the bills in the playoffs.
Because we've seen one game, you know, the Steelers game this past weekend, we haven't
really kind of covered it and we probably won't go very much in depth to it.
But I think that everyone can agree that the Steelers were the, they were the seventh seed
in both name and image coming in to the AFC.
They did not necessarily have kind of the horses to really earn a seat at the table.
They got in by the way they did.
Mason Rudolph had a really nice run at the end, all the things we talked about, but not
having TJ Watt, their defense is about 50% power.
And then their offense just was not, you know, did not have the, the, the, the, the, you
know, talent needed to continue in the race.
And so to see the bills kind of pull that one out somewhat easily, you know, it got
tight within a score at one point, but the Pittsburgh Steelers never actually possessed
the ball within seven points.
The bills got it back and answered immediately.
So as we go through Casey offense versus Bill's defense and get into the kind of the metrics
there, just, you know, I offer the opportunity to give your observations about what we've
seen so far and how this bill's team is playing.
Oh man, such a, such a wide open area to explore.
You know, I'll say this just generally, this is a team now that's playing with a lot more
physicality on offense.
And it has done that in a, in sort of this really amazing way without forgetting their
elite star QB.
They're just using his skill set, I think more fully than what was happening earlier
on in the season.
I also think to JJ, this is a team that is eager to close.
We've talked about this before.
This is a team that wants to get in front and then it wants to kind of grind things to a
halt.
I think I texted you in that Pittsburgh game in the third quarter.
I didn't love the play sequencing because they were really taking the air out of the
ball during a game where Josh was in basically terminator mode.
He was having great success in the air, taking care of the ball, making good decisions, hitting
guys in stride, but he was also having a lot of success on the ground.
And in the third quarter, and this is a trend I've noticed with this team, is they enter
the second half with a lead.
They kind of take their foot off the gas and I don't mean that in a, in a bad way, but
you can see them kind of like a boxer using the middle rounds of a fight to start to set
the opposing team up.
So they focused a lot more on that third quarter against Pittsburgh on the run game.
They ran more than they passed in the entirety of that quarter.
And as a result, when you get to the fourth quarter, you just saw how gassed and how tired
that Pittsburgh defensive front was.
And then they didn't have any answer for the bills closing it out with James Cook,
Ty Johnson, Latavius Murray and Josh Ellen's legs at the end of that game.
I think you can get away with that against a team like Pittsburgh.
I don't know that you're going to have the same benefit, even if you have a lead heading
into the second half with a team like Kansas City.
And I know this offense isn't what it used to be, right?
But this Kansas City offense has redefined itself.
And I don't think, I don't think they necessarily found their groove against Miami, but they
found some different ways to win.
They have now realized we've got to lean into Rashid Rice.
We've got to lean into Isaiah Pachinko.
Travis Kelsey isn't as dynamic as he used to be, but in short area yardage, he can help
keep some of these methodical drives this team needs to go on going.
So I think if the bills continue to follow this, this philosophy of game clock management,
grinding things to a halt when they have a lead, I think what you're asking this team
to do is play perfect on offense and have another turnover list game where they're not
giving an extra advantage to Patrick Mahomes.
Because that seems to be the way that they prefer to live in the second half of a lot
of these games.
And I just don't know that it works against this version of Kansas City.
I don't know that it works against any version of Patrick Mahomes, but in particular, this
version of this offense, the way that it is built and what they are answers, they are
now starting to find on offense.
I don't know that it's the way to go.
So if I had to summarize my thoughts on the offensive side of the ball for the bills,
it is more effective.
It is less efficient, but they are really, I think, too eager to take their foot off
the gas and start to go into their closing script.
I would like to see them keep their foot on the gas just a little bit more against this
Kansas City team and really put this game away early if they have the opportunity.
Well, and I think that you may see that a little bit in this game because the bills
don't have a punter, Dan.
Or if they do, he's playing on one leg.
So or they're going to have Matt Hack.
I was going to say, we signed Matt Hawk.
We're fine.
Yeah.
Who's who's a Hock and name and a hack in the game.
So bro, that is that's the title for this episode.
Congratulations.
We're going to name it after the punter.
Yeah, we are.
So anyway, they may not have a punter, so they may be forced to kind of play more aggressively.
I think that we've we've also seen in critical moments of the past, you know, five, six games
stretch.
Sean McDermott has been way more aggressive.
He has looked different in the way he's been coaching in those key moments.
And he's looked like, you know, he is playing to win as opposed, you know, playing not to
lose.
And so I'm really hopeful that that carries in this matchup as well.
And I think that, you know, you're right.
I think that these two quarterbacks, you mentioned this earlier, bring the best out of each other.
And so if Josh Allen is Terminator mode, Josh Allen making smart decisions, kind of running
when he sees openings, Spagnola's defense does a lot of man, they're going to turn their
back to him and rely on their spies to find him.
And that means one thing to me, James Cook, like if James Cook, they can't spy bull, the
way that they play defense, they cannot spy both James Cook and have a linebacker assigned
to him, the every play every snap, like the Steelers did, and then also have a linebacker
assigned to Josh Allen, every play, every snap.
Because if that's the case, then we're going to see Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid, Cleal
Shakir in the slot, maybe Stefan Diggs in the slot going off a little bit, because they're
going to stretch that middle of that field a little bit too much for those, they're going
to put the linebackers in conflict, they won't be able to to spy and cover or spy Cook and
and Allen and cover all simultaneously, they'll have to kind of pick one or the other.
Those are the opportunities.
So really, what I'm what I'm thinking about with this game is like, yes, be aggressive,
but also, I think the big advantage here is that this Kansas City defense has the best
pass rush sack percentage in the league, they bring the quarterback to the ground the most.
They sack Josh Allen three times the last time they met.
It's likely they're going to get them to the ground again, as long as he doesn't make
poor decisions, fumbles, you know, throw in receptions, trying to throw himself out of
a sack.
I think it's okay if they get him down.
But I think that it's expect to see a game where Josh Allen tries to have a quick trigger.
And that's something that I think is going to be an advantage here.
And you know, the bills have more talent on the offensive side of the ball than than the
chiefs do.
And I think that's just that's just it.
Travis Kelsey has had a higher twice as his drop percentage is twice as much as it's ever
been in his entire career this season.
So he's struggling with drops a little bit.
They literally have a rookie and Rishi Rice who I think is excellent and has really kind
of shown after the snap that he's or after the catch point that he's got some excellent
run after catchability.
But he's still kind of coming into his own beyond that they have not a lot of talent
anywhere else on that, you know, in the past catchers anyway.
As a Pacheco, I agree he runs like the ground owes him money.
I heard that or saw that on Twitter.
It's brilliant.
There's a lot of if you just like quote to eat or look for the quotes of Isaiah Pacheco
runs like it's gold.
The cover one guys were talking about that and I really appreciated it.
So you know, it's like there's a lot of opportunities in this game.
I think the bills have better talent on offense than the chiefs.
And I think the chiefs have better talent on defense than the bills.
But it's close.
And I think so that, you know, once you mix that all up with with the high mark stadium,
Bill's mafia, it's advantage bills, of course, and that's what we want.
But it's going to be an interesting and like you said, kind of when we opened, it might
be a bit of a street fight.
Oh, I absolutely think so.
And if you're the bills, you've you've got to you've got a course correct a little bit
from that first game that we played earlier in the season on the offensive side of the
ball in particular.
So maybe this is where we kind of frame things up and where we do a deep dive, because I'm
fascinated to see what this matchup or this rematch of Joe Brady versus Steve Spagnolo
is going to look like, because we kind of both agreed.
Spagnolo kind of got the better of Brady in that first matchup.
Josh threw the ball 42 times in that game.
And there were times where this chiefs played a lot of zone in that game, which was surprising.
And per EPA per backdrop, that was Josh's worst statistical performance against the
zone this season.
Spags, but Spags also knows how to dial up blitzes at the right time as well.
Brady and we saw a bit of a struggle with this in the Miami game that was nicely corrected,
I think in the Pittsburgh game, Brady built in a lot more quick time throws, blitz beaters
for Josh Allen.
There are a couple of key ways that you could attack this Kansas City defense that I think
I would like to see Brady hone in on and course correct from that first week.
One, you've got to be able to establish a second threat next to Stefan Diggs.
This unit because of the emergence of Lageria Snead has been elite at covering wide receiver
ones.
And per DV away the number five ranked team and shutting down an opposing teams top weapon
in the slot because of second year star Trent McDuffie.
This is the number two team and shutting down your slot receiver per DV away tight ends.
They're a top 10 unit and doing that because the guys like Nick Bolton, guys like Drew
tranquil, right?
Here's where this team can be had.
It's on the outside opposite of Snead.
Where Snead is not guarding has got a factor in key to this game.
Now Gabe Davis, we know has already been ruled out.
So do you stick with Trent Scherfield and stick with your run blocking run minded run
run establishing mindset?
You might because this is also a Kansas City team that struggles against the run as well.
They're 27th and DV away against the run and they're 30th and EPA and success rate.
This is a team you can absolutely run on and we did in that first game.
But if this becomes a game where you got to win a little bit through the air, this could
be a cool Shakir flipping to the outside type of game or and we've been asking for this
for a while.
This could finally be our Deontay Hardy game.
It finally could be the emergence of that small fast quick footed little guy that we
that we picked up in the off season and we've been wondering when he's going to earn his
money when he's going to earn his money.
It could be in this game because as tough and as physical as this Kansas City defense
is there is no one opposite of Snead that they have an answer for that can counter Hardy
speed.
So I'd like to see Brady dig a little bit deeper into the bag.
I think we've got to establish the run in this game and it wouldn't make any sense to
not take advantage of a weak Kansas City run defense and wear that line down and pause that
George Carloftus and Chris Jones led pass rush.
But when we have to activate the passing game thrown a little bit of unpredictability and
unpredictability in the outside.
And this is different than my stance has been against other teams where I'm like we got
to exploit the middle of the field.
We've got you know we've got to have these Blitzbeaters.
I actually think you've got to attack whatever third of the field and outside the numbers
that Snead is not on.
That's what's going to give you your chunk plays.
That's what's going to give you the explosives that you need to really dictate game script
in the way that you need to.
So JJ I'm looking at a play cadence and a play sequence that I want to see from Brady.
This is a steady dose of James Cook and then forcing those Kansas City Chiefs to bring
safety help over the other side of the field opposite Stefan digs because they can be had
wherever Snead is not on the outside of the hashes.
Yeah well and I think that they will bring safety help over because as you mentioned
Jalen Watson and Joshua Williams are the other outside corner since Trent McDuffie will
stay primarily in the slot.
And so those two other corners are pretty poor in their coverage grades.
But like you said they do tend to shade you know the safety they've just been reading
Mike Edwards playing Brian Cook being out is kind of a big thing for their run defense
because he was really in the box player.
And so or was he the middle fielder and Justin Reed's more in the box.
I forget which which way that those guys rotate.
Justin Reed is like their their chess piece.
He's like the guy who will play in the box and sometimes play in coverage.
So you know Spags likes to rotate his coverages in the same way that McDermott does as we
talk about these teams being mere images of each other.
Reed is the guy who is often going to rotate and he did it to great effect in that game
against Kansas City in the regular season.
Josh held on to the ball for his longest clip of the year at 3.3 seconds and you can credit
it a lot to those safety rotations confusing Josh post snap.
Well and I think that that's that's also there's something to be said for this bill's offense
at that point in the year had been operating under Joe Brady for I mean he had the buy but
he essentially had you know two weeks against Jets and Eagles then the buy and then the
chiefs and so there's something to be said for like a little bit more time on task a
little bit more opportunity to kind of blend and and make the offensive playbook match
his his style.
And I believe that you know some of the things we saw against a stealer some of the things
that we've seen in the the win streak they had leading up to the playoffs gives me hope
that he'll be able to do things that they weren't able to do under Ken Dorsey which
is scheme individual guys open and scheme individual matchups.
The Dalton Kincaid's seam shot for the touchdown after the turnover was a scheme based route
in which they studied their opponent they knew exactly what look they wanted to get
once they got the look they had the play dialed up to to score boom done.
And he's done a lot of that with bunch formations leading up to this you know this game in the
past number of weeks by having a bunch confusing coverage a little bit and then sneaking people
out.
We've seen James Cook both drop and catch wheel route you know against linebackers for
touchdowns there are some opportunities here to you know basically pick the guy you want
to pick on and attack them that we've seen from Brady which wasn't necessarily the same
with Ken Dorsey because with Ken Dorsey it's like okay yeah there's there's weaknesses
in the coverage but it's basically everybody at full speed deciding how they're going to
attack them and making those adjustments during the play and then hoping that everything hooked
up right in that moment in that window that it was created by coverage shifting the way
that both Stefan Diggs again running full speed and Josh Allen again avoiding the rush
decided to hit on right like that was not connected was connecting for a little while
and then it wasn't because I think that you know it became too predictable so there are
some opportunities here and kind of you know I'm I'm excited to see them over the past
month and a half.
Kallil Shakir has a 100% catch rate.
I hope he continues that you know you know somebody like Patrick Malm's is salivating
looking at a player like that with the problems he's had with Marcus Veldas scantling and
Kaderius Tony and Skymore various other you know craptacular wide receivers down there.
Even Rice has dropped a bunch of balls this season.
Yeah for as good for as good as he's been late.
Yeah.
So yeah I think that there's some opportunities and I'm I'm looking forward to those matchups
I'm worried about the Kansas City pass rush because it's so lethal it does such good work.
We saw that against the Dolphins as well.
It's going to be a true test.
I think they're going to probably put Chris Jones over Osiris Torrance a lot in this game
and really press that matchup which is advantage chiefs of course but hopefully the builds
have some plans for it.
With the release of Leonard Fournet I don't think that we're going to have there's any
question Latavius Murray is your third down pass protecting back in there and I see you
making a face.
It's so it's so predictable when he comes on the field now and listen man we're both
we're both from like the upstate New York region.
Oh yeah like like he's a local.
He's a legend in the area.
Yeah.
Syracuse guy Syracuse guy on a dog a guy we love we love Latavius Murray and he's been
in this team has shouted out his leadership ability in the in the locker room every time
he is on the field the opposing team knows exactly what is coming and every time he's
on the field and he is the check down he slips he doesn't have the same kind of agility
or quickness or cutting ability drops the ball.
Right.
So not only are we showing our hand every time he's on the field offensively we are
less when he is there.
I appreciate Latavius Murray but it is time to move him out of these personnel packages.
Well and I'll say this you know if we talk about who do we move in when we move him out
I know that Cook has kind of struggled in past protection but Ty Johnson even though
he's not a large man has shown some tenacity in kind of filling in in those snaps he's
had on third downs and various times of being a personal protector for Josh Allen.
I actually really like that you know that the way he presents as a blocker and you know
he tends to flow to the right spot to pick up Blitzers and we know we're going to see
them against you know the Spagnolo defense you know I like Ty Johnson in that role and
hopefully we see him for some of those snaps because otherwise yeah you're right it gets
predictable it's like oh Latavius Murray is in the game this must be either a short yardage
handoff draw or they're just going to pass it most likely the pass.
Yeah and and and as I say the things that I want to see Brady course correct that is
definitely one of them.
Listen there are there are not a lot of knits to pick with the offenses that Brady has called
he's given this offense an identity which even last year you and I were saying what
is the identity of this offense what are they good at Brady has given them an identity but
now I think we are far enough along into the progression of Brady as a offensive coordinator
and play caller where he's got to start pulling out some of the the things in the scheme that
are not working and Latavius Murray and any of these personnel packages is just not working.
Yeah man there this is a game as we say these two teams know each other so much there are
not a lot of surprises that either of these coaching staffs can go into the bag and pull
out against the opposing squad.
Less Latavius Murray more Ty Johnson would absolutely be one of those surprises flipping
Khalil Shakir to the outside in the absence of gave Davis and using a little bit more
diana diana Hardy would also be one of those surprise tricks that you could pull out of
the bag outside of that JJ I don't know that there is much that the bills can offer offensively
that this Kansas City Chiefs defense wouldn't already be prepared for.
Yeah I agree with that and I think that you know that's that's the other thing is that
I think that you know when we talk about this bills offense versus Kansas City defense you
know against strength on strength in this matchup I you know it's going to sadly it's
going to come down to basically the way that Ken Dorsey called the offense which is every
offensive player is going to have to execute their assignment perfectly if they want to
pull this this game out that's exactly what has to happen because you're not going to
win because the defense is has a clunky scheme or players don't know fundamentally where
they're supposed to be on the field that's not a way that you win that way against teams
like the Chargers you win that way against teams like the commanders where it's like
you're exploiting gaps and talent you know vacuums in certain areas of the field or you're
running it down the throats of the you know Dallas Cowboys because they play a nickel
or dime defense that's way lighter than the offensive line you're putting on the field
and you're just kind of out beefing them that's not going to happen in this game I think that
one piece that's kind of interesting is that the Kansas City Chiefs are missing Derek Naughty
for this who plays as their nose tackle and heavy sets so expect to see that opportunity
but then you have Chris Jones in the middle you have George Carl Loftus who's like high
motor you know think Kyle Williams and his prime type player who never gives up on a play
can make you know has the athleticism to make the tackle from the from the trailing side
of the play comes up behind you know and that sort of thing can make some game changing
plays there's there's a lot going on in this defense that I don't think that you can just
you know line up your guys and say okay you know eight of eleven of our players can play
their best rap and we're going to get a touchdown it's eleven of eleven gets you a touchdown
or first down only right like and anything less is maybe a negative play probably not
a turnover because the for some reason this defense is incredibly fundamentally sound
but it's almost like they're too good in coverage that they're never they're not selling out
for interceptions because they're just playing to like shut down the route.
Yeah, yeah man. It's it's going to be a fascinating chess match and I cannot wait to see what Brady
learned from that that I would say masterclass in the first game that Spags rolled out against
him like the bills still came away with that win and the defense played out of their minds
for the bills that game and I think this might be a good transition point to talk about my
homes versus whatever version of this bill's defense we're going to roll out per the injury
report but the bills defense only allowed 17 against the chiefs in that first game and
as good as they have played and as good as McDermott has coached 17 does not feel like
a realistic number that they're going to hold this squad to right.
So let's let's talk about this bill's defense against this chiefs offense because it's equal
parts important and as fascinating as the matchup on the other side of the squads.
So JJ where do you want to start with us to I mean the injuries probably are the place
where we should start run through that litany of injuries.
Sure, well we'll get to the kind of lineup piece but before I get to the lineup piece
I have a little bit quiz lit I have a quiz to ask you how how many players how many
individual players were able to accumulate skill position players were able to accumulate
100 yards or more rushing or receiving against these Buffalo bills on this defense this season.
Skill position players.
Yeah, so running back tight end wide receiver somebody who is a skill position player not
quarterbacks of course quarterback getting 100 yards isn't really much at all.
I don't think we gave up 100 Tyreek at all this season right I think we did not know
we did not.
So we didn't give up on her to waddle who did we play.
Oh did Garrett Garrett Wilson got a Garrett Wilson got 100 in that first game right.
No, no.
Oh wow.
No, but Breece Hall did.
That's yeah.
Yeah, yeah, Breece Hall.
Yeah, he broke God he broke that ridiculous run.
Thank God for Christian Benford.
So I'm going to say so we know Breece Hall I'm going to say I mean it's got it's got
to be single digits.
I'm going to say four.
Four total individuals four total individuals had individual performances of 100 yards or
more against the bill.
So it was five games six individuals.
Oh, six individuals but six individuals think about the number of running backs wide receivers
and tight ends that roll out against a team in any week and go off for 100 yards which
you know when you get down to you know running backs wide receivers having excellent seasons
we pick face some excellent individuals but yeah, Breece Hall 100 in the first Jets game
rushing Devon Hain 100 in the dolphins blow out.
That's right.
Yeah, the one that I thought was extra surprising was that in the in the Jaguars game both Travis
Etn went for 130 and Kelvin really went for 120 which is just I remember that game was
just a mess.
And that team that team was seven and eight in the United States.
I know.
It's wild.
And the Bengals T Higgins went for 100 on us.
And then finally and this is the this is I think the most important thing if you want
to like frame how this bill's defense has been kind of since the break the last person
to go for over 100 was Devonta Smith with the Eagles before the buy they haven't done
no player has gotten over 100 and only a few players have gotten over 50.
That is in since then readable when you consider they've done the majority of that work without
Milano.
Yes.
Without Trey White.
Rizul Douglas working himself into this scheme as a just just Dequan Jones coming back for
the last game.
Like that's that's that's incredible.
That's incredible again like a McDermott in the defensive coordinating job he has done
this season.
I mean it is one for the books.
It is one for the books.
It won't matter if they lose on Sunday but it really is in retrospect one for the books.
And to speak to that now now to kind of pivot to that lineup question about this Kansas City
matchup the Buffalo Bills are going into this game with their kind of base nickel defense
missing five preferred starters that are out or out or questionable and unlikely and those
are Trell Bernard, Taryn Johnson, Tredavious White, Matt Milano, Rizul Douglas, right.
Like those are the players that you would kind of prefer to have on the field.
And we don't know about you know it's hopeful and likely Taryn Johnson and Trell Bernard
are in hopeful and more likely Rizul Douglas isn't right.
So those are players that might be playing dinged up but might will be there and then
there's two preferred backups that get a lot of snaps and Taylor Rap and Christian Benford
specifically over that span of time the last six seven games where the Buffalo Bills have
been holding opposing talent to such you know kind of regular pedestrian numbers.
Taylor Rap coming on the field as a deep deep third safety in dime looks and bringing Jordan
Porter into the box has allowed the Bills to take their you know Tyrell Dodson who's
an excellent you know early down run stuffer off the field kind of pivot into a dime look
and really shut down what play what the teams are trying to do in the past game.
They won't have that opportunity with you know Taylor Rap out it's going to be maybe
DeMar Hamlin, Cam Lewis coming on and I think that you know the thing that I've seen just
in the Steelers game that I was really impressed with was Kyrie Lom after that awful you know
first four or five snaps including the penalty for pass interference that got the Steelers
down to the one yard line.
After that and he made that interception he had a solid game on the rewatch and on the
all 22 he had sticky coverage who's still very handsy there were definitely some calls
that Pickens you know was a little bit upset about that could have could have been made
on him and on Dane Jackson but you know he had a solid game so I feel a little bit better
about him having to come in in relief but yeah that is the story that's the story of
this defense for the entire season is playing shorthanded playing without you know some
of their key stars and the one thing that might be an X factor in this game as we kind
of do talk about lineups is the fact that the Kansas City Chiefs did not see DeQuon
Jones and Ed Oliver lined up next to each other in the first meeting they had Jordan
Phillips Tim Settle I don't think did we have I'm blanking on the name Linval Joseph
do we have Linval Joseph in that game.
Yeah here I got the snap count run for me I always say yeah so they did not see probably
our best interior big technique detackle into Quon Jones and we did have Linval.
Yep Linval had to tackle that game and I think that might have been his first game with the
team.
It would have been right after the trade deadline and he was a free agent a street free agent
so right we signed him right at that time I think.
Oh no yeah yeah yeah you're right you're right I'm getting him confused with playoff
lining.
Oh yeah no problem so that I think is the big story is that the clear strength of this
builds offense or builds defense against the Kansas City offense is that line it's that
line in that pass rush and I think that we're going to need to see something from Von Miller
we're going to need to see another AJ Epineza game against KC he had a really excellent
game the first time and he cracked his ribs on that one play or intercept the ball so
he's probably got some desire to come back in here and make some hay having played against
them once before their offensive line I'm sure we've covered is excellent in the middle
Creed Humphrey the one that got away Joe Tooney.
Can we not can we just not talk I mean Creed is just so.
We won't rehash it anyone who's listened to the pod knows how we feel about Creed Humphrey.
Anyone who's listened to any Buffalo Bills podcast knows how this fan base feels about
Creed Humphrey.
So in their middle Joe Tooney Creed Humphrey Trace Smith Trace Smith had a kind of crappy
game against the Bills the first time they met but he's solid and has been but you know
Juan Moris is out so Donovan Smith at left tackle Joann Taylor has been a mess he's had
like 18 or 19 penalties which is far and away the most by any offensive player this season
and he's also the one who tends to one leave snap early to leave the snap count early into
his pass set and also to never actually line up legally on the line so I'm hopeful that
you know the officiating notices make sure that he's lined up properly make sure that
he's leaving on time and not early and that's another advantage for the Buffalo Bills with
Bill's Mafia in the house the snap counts are going to be hard to hear communication
is going to be rough.
Joann Taylor somebody who we can directly effect as a fan base to benefit the defense
and put them in some longer down in distance opportunities.
Yeah, Taylor has had 17 total penalties called on him this season that is basically one per
game.
So he's absolutely good for one just like Snead is good for one on the defensive side
of the ball.
Um, yeah, they're again, and this is it is hard for me to remain objective and hold
in my excitement.
But when we talk about this Kansas City offense, and it could all come crashing down around
us after I make this take.
But with this Kansas City, this feels like the most gettable this team has ever been
ever been.
And this bill's defense and the elite level it is playing at and the elite level it is
being coached at the end of the Philadelphia Eagles game feels like eons ago.
Because to your point, McDermott has thrown caution to the wind and he is absolutely coached
out of his mind and coached aggressively.
And I think if that continues and he doesn't turtle up in this game with whatever who they
roll out there, whatever squad they roll out there is going to have a chance against this
version of Kansas City.
The power of Kansas City has been that no matter how multiple you are against this offense,
they are eventually going to assimilate.
But that was back when they had the triumvirate of my home's read and be enemy.
That was a crew that had seen just about everything together, everything together.
And whatever you could throw at them, they were eventually going to adjust to the Miami
Dolphins blitzed Patrick Mahomes JJ.
The thing that you are never supposed to do against the great one, Patrick Mahomes, the
grim reaper himself, they decided to do what no one else does, bring extra guys against
him.
And Patrick Mahomes only completed 56% of his passes against that Miami Dolphins defensive
pass rush when they brought an extra rusher at the line of scrimmage.
They confused Mahomes pretty successfully at the line of scrimmage with a little bit
of disguised coverage, which we know the bills can do to much greater effect than the dolphins
can.
This version of the Kansas City chiefs seems to have less answers than it has had in the
past for what opposing defenses can do.
And opposing defenses, much like they've been playing Josh, have tended to basically
say we can die a death by 1000 paper cuts and let Mahomes absolutely cut us up on a
12 play drive and bring us down the field, or we can change things up a little bit.
Teams are still playing a lot of too high against Kansas City and they are forcing Kansas
City to be basically the Baker Bayfield version of the Cleveland Browns from a few years ago
and plot down the field.
And they've taken advantage of the fact that the personnel around Mahomes is not good enough
to execute those drives perfectly like you need to to be successful.
The teams have also been picking their spots, ma'am, Mahomes has been rushed.
We talked about Josh Allen being in the top 10 and facing Blitz this season.
Mahomes is in the top 12.
Teams are picking their spots a lot more aggressively against Mahomes and it is working.
So when you factor in less talent at positions where they've had talent before, when you
factor in a hostile environment, and when you factor in the way this bill's defense
is playing and the schemes that are running out there, being the things that this Kansas
City Chiefs team has less answers for, I don't want to get ahead of myself, but it feels
like this could be an advantageous matchup for the bills for the first time in a while.
Oh, absolutely.
And I think it's the first year that Patrick Mahomes has had his pressure when he when
pressured his completion percentage, his deep throw percentage, his touchdown to interception
rate, everything is down.
He is much more likely to turn it over than get a touchdown when blitzed, which is the
first time in his career that that's been true.
And so I think that that absolutely is an opportunity.
And I'd like to highlight one player that might have some opportunities in that way.
And I think I have a good analogy for him.
So I think we talked about Dorian Williams as making a full speed mistakes previously.
And I think that one thing I saw with the Steelers, they had to play him, right?
They had to play him because the injuries forced their hand a little bit.
But I saw something really interesting on the rewatch.
Dorian Williams is a green shell in Mario Kart.
He is not a blue shell.
Blue shell.
Matt Milano is a blue shell.
Matt Milano will find the quarterback, no matter the cost through the trash, through
the scrabble and bring it to the ground.
He will fold Mike White in half and break everything inside of his body at full speed.
Dorian Williams isn't that.
So you have to use Dorian Williams like a green shell in Mario Kart.
You have to go for the bank.
You have to do you just it's a direct fire.
It's dumb ordinance.
You shoot him at whatever you want to stop as fast as possible.
And you cover him with other players.
And that's what they did.
They actually had him do some run blitzes and some different kind of pass rush assignments
where they're like Dorian.
He's Bobby Boucher in the water boy for all the olds who know that particular Adam Sandler
vehicle.
You just need to point him at something and be like, go destroy that and don't think too
hard about what's going on around you because we have Jordan Boyer and Mike Ahide and we've
got, you know, AJ Klein, who is a hero among men also for skipping his vacation plans and
coming out of retirement.
They're quasi retirement for a game and showing up and having the most tackles on the team.
Really they that was I think the biggest benefit is we've seen Terrell Bernard trying to help
Dorian Williams on the field.
And then we've seen Dorian Williams fail epically, hit the wrong run fit, not make his kind of
assignment.
So I think that having AJ Klein out there with Dorian Williams was an amazing kind of
veteran presence of being like, no, no, this is what you want to do.
And just that don't do anything else.
Don't look at any of the flashy things.
Don't pay attention to any sparkling lights.
I just need you to run full speed at that person.
And if they catch the ball, I want you to evict their soul from their body.
And that worked.
That was okay.
So, you know, we may see some Dorian Williams snaps in this game.
And if we do, I'm actually kind of excited because as terrible, it's sort of like watching
Josh Allen when he's a rookie, right?
You're like, oh my God, like you're just looking horror at some of the things he does.
But then you see something you're like, Oh, that was an incredibly athletic and unworldly
play that not many people in this league can make.
That's Dorian Williams for me right now.
Yeah, man, he's definitely a min max version of a player on this defensive squad.
He he he's glass cannon for the DNDs.
Exactly.
He's going to be very high variance, right?
I was checking because he has really struggled in past coverage.
And this is, I think back to early career, Tremaine Edmonds against Pat Mahomes and the
way Mahomes would just move Edmonds wherever he wanted to on the field.
He had a remote control.
Exactly, right?
Mahomes reacts so quickly.
I don't know that he's patient enough to be manipulated by Mahomes over the middle.
But still, I mean, there is a case to be made for Dorian Williams to get real snaps in this.
And we can't say it enough.
Bobby Babbage, assistant coach of the year, he's not going to get it.
But every time a linebacker has gone down, he has literally taken guys off the couch
and AJ Klein and gotten them ready to play in this game, just absolutely unbelievable.
We criticize so much of the coaching detail and the efficacy of this crew.
Bobby Babbage, man, he's one of the real ones.
And we need to keep him at any cost it takes to keep him because he to me, he is our future
defensive coordinator without a doubt on this squad.
Oh yeah, he's excellent.
So JJ, if we were to summarize before before going to prediction, should it go wrong?
I think we would probably both agree.
On the offensive side of the ball, a steady dose of James Cook.
This is a Kansas City defense that struggles to stop the run.
This is also a team that struggles to defend running backs, catching pit balls out of the
backfield.
Roll out a couple of surprises, man.
Duff the Latavius Murray packages, give those snaps to Ty Johnson.
And let's see a little bit of Chicanery in the absence of Gabe Davis on the outside.
Chicanery word of the pod.
Yep, there we go.
Chicanery.
By the way, we owe my buddy, Dave, a beer.
He used the term amalgamation to me.
Yes.
He listens to the pod and we were hanging out earlier this week and he used amalgamation.
He's like, where's my beer?
And I'm like, you listen.
One of the guys at the PT spot I go to who I shouted out last time, used amalgamation
when I walked in.
And so I also him a beer.
Yes.
So we owe some people beers.
We got to like be careful with those things.
We can't go too rich with the use the word of the pod and we'll send you a car.
Like no.
Yeah.
We can't get a beer for right now.
Yes.
That feels very.
I can afford however many people listen to this pods worth of beer.
That's right.
So yeah.
So I think that right.
So a little bit of deviation from the typical, hey man, we're going to run the ball.
So let's put Trent Scherfield out there for all the David snaps.
Let's see a little bit of Hardy.
Let's see a little bit of Shakira on the side because we absolutely know these Kansas City
Chiefs struggle to defend outside the numbers wherever Lageria's Sneed is not on the defensive
side of the ball.
How would you summarize what these Buffalo Bills need to do against this Mahomes led
defense or offense?
I think that the the bills defense needs to take advantage of Bill's mafia to turn that
into pass rush pressure.
And what I mean by that is you need to press the edges of this team and use twists and
stunts and things that require a lot of offensive line communication because the tackles left
and right tackle on the Kansas City Chiefs, they are solid but not spectacular and they
can be had.
So I think that this is an opportunity, different twists stunts, different delayed blitzes.
I know that a number of teams having watched a lot of Kansas City football replays this
week, a lot of teams have done delayed blitzes on Patrick Mahomes where they basically wait
one beat to make sure it's not a screen.
And then they send someone flying through the gap.
Maybe that's green shell Dorian Williams.
But again, I don't trust him to diagnose whether it's a screen and then go on a rush.
So like who knows.
But yeah, that's the thing that's crazy is we mentioned before Patrick Mahomes does
not has been doing more poorly under pressure than he has any on the other time in his career.
This team he's also holding the ball longer than he ever has purse on a person that basis
and this team throws screens at like a top five or top six rate.
And so the screen comes out in less than one and a half seconds on a pass usually.
And still his rate for holding the ball is over 2.8.
So he's definitely hanging onto it much, much longer because you'd think that that amount
of screens would bring his average way down and it's not.
So he is he's trying to make magic.
So you need to compress a rush.
You need to cage rush delayed delayed blitzes, you know, read the play and then shoot a gap.
Use twist stunts with your defensive line, some tackle scrape stuff because they're not
going to do.
They're not going to do very well if they can't communicate live with the Bill's mafia
screaming.
Love it.
Absolutely love it.
All right, JJ.
The moment of truth prediction sure to go wrong.
Let's start with score.
Where are you at?
Oh my God.
So the bills defense has held.
I don't think any has anyone scored 30 on this Kansas State Chiefs this year.
I don't think so.
On the Chiefs.
No, in point of fact, over their last 10 games, they have not allowed over 21 points.
Okay.
So I like the bills 27 to 21 over these Chiefs.
Man, bucking the trend there.
Look at you.
Yeah, I know this is going to be scrappy.
But I think what we see from Josh Allen, like, I know we've talked about sugar high Josh
and kind of panic Josh and those sorts of things.
I feel like this is straight up a Terminator Josh game.
I feel like this is how he came out saucy and ready in the negative six degree game
against the Patriots 47 17 game.
I think that that's the kind of Josh we have dialed in because that's how he was slinging
it in basically the second half of the Dolphins game all the way through the Steelers game.
Good decisions, solid, you know, decision making running when he wanted opportunities.
Really like juke and people's out of their shoes so bad they accused him of fake sliding,
which is BS.
That's literally called a deek.
Yeah, yeah.
It's an hockey.
I mean, it was it's chicanery.
Absolute juke.
It was an absolute juke not a fake slide.
Now, look at what Kenny, what Kenny Pickett did in college was a fake slide.
Josh Allen was not fake sliding.
No, stat correction.
The Kansas City Chiefs have given up over 21 points in one game out of their last 10
that Green Bay Packers game where they get 27.
Right.
So this is not a team that's given up 30 and it's usually holding squads around 20.
Ah, man, I struggle with this so badly.
I'm going to go bills.
I don't think it's 27.
I just don't.
I have too much respect for this Kansas City defense and the level of hype they're going
to bring to this game as well.
I'm going to say bills 24 Chiefs.
Chiefs 20.
I think I think the bills defense can get the job done.
And I think the offense is going to do just enough to squeak it out.
And here's the reason why we've laid out what we think this bill's offense needs to do to
take advantage of the weak spots on this Chiefs defense.
This is the best defensive coordinator probably that that the bills have faced in the McDermott
era, and he always seems to be able to dial up a lot of answers with inadequate rosters
against this team.
This is a really good defensive roster for Kansas City, and it's a mostly healthy defensive
roster, especially when compared to the bills.
And young and they've got speed elements, right?
Unless the unless Brady is willing to not completely deviate from tendencies, but like
I said, show the show the Chiefs something that they have not yet seen from this squad.
I think Spags is going to have this team ready to go.
I still think the bills pull it out, but I don't think it's 13 second shootout game.
I think this is 24 20 bills.
Great.
I like both.
I mean, gosh, like like we said, when we open the pod, like this is this all coming.
It's all come to this.
Like this is the decider of the season.
Of course, it's winter go home, but also of all of the narratives around this team and
the struggles they've had and Sean McDermott and Ken Josh Allen beat my homes in a big
moment and all of the, you know, all the things that people have been saying for ever since
13 seconds, basically all come around to this is this a chance, you know, for the bills
to change their destiny and not be remembered for puking all over themselves in the last
minute or 13 seconds of a game.
This is again.
This is an era defining opportunity for the squad and the stakes cannot be understated.
It dude, it's whatever happens.
It's going to be epic.
The high is going to be epic.
The mental health recovery I'm going to need in the event of a loss is going to be epic.
Way too much of my well-being is riding on this game on Sunday.
It's way too much.
The hands of a bunch of 25 year old millionaires.
Seriously.
Oh my God, we are sick puppies of sports fans.
Let me tell you for sure.
All right.
I have I've only got one prop for this.
Okay.
I was trying to come up with like fun quirky stuff, but the reality is, is this basically
a divisional game and these games are always like too weird.
But I do have one for you.
It's not an overrun der.
Von Miller, active or inactive for this game.
Oh my God.
Mine was a Von Miller one.
That's so funny.
Was it really?
Yeah.
We do.
I was like, this is funny because I didn't go active inactive.
I'm going to say he's active.
I'm picking active.
I'm picking active because I think he was close to sacking Mason Rudolph on one play.
He had a little bit of juice on a couple of pass rush snaps at the end of that game against
the Steelers.
And so I think that they probably they made him inactive or they made him active for games
following way worse performances than that against the Steelers.
And he's still respected in the locker room as a leader, as a championship winning defensive
end linebacker.
Yeah.
And that's what Kingsley Jonathan could do with some of those snaps.
You know what I mean?
But that was my prop though is Von Miller over over under half a sack under.
Again, I'm going to continue to take the under until he actually sacks someone, which he
has not done this season.
No, he hasn't.
And the last time, I mean, not the last time he had a sack, but he did have a game clinching
sack on Patrick Mahomes in the regular season game last year before he was injured.
I know, and it would be great to see that version of Von again, but I just I don't think so.
I think it's going to have to be the other edge rushers that get this done.
And man, I hope that D-Line brings the heat and take some of the heat off what has been
an excellent secondary performance this season.
Well, and I remember hearing post game conversations from AJ Epinezza about how he was feeling it
against this chiefs team and like had that amazing play and then got injured on it and
had to, you know, was it was shelved for the rest of the game.
So I feel like he has a lot of things.
He has some oats he wants to sow here.
Absolutely some unfinished business.
Yeah, for sure.
All right, man, you got any more props?
Like I said, I just got the Von Miller one.
No, I just, you know, I'm just, you know, I'm putting putting all my chips in for this
one too.
We got to we got to get this thing and continue on survive in advance.
That's the name of the game can be ugly just needs to be a W.
If the bills lose, I'll be very honest with our listeners, you're not probably not going
to see a new episode for like months until it's draft season.
And we're just going to come back and be like, Hey, all right, bills, post season.
One of two things will happen.
You will not hear from us for a very long time or you will hear from us immediately.
Like there will be a prod the same day as the game where we just come on and like we're
partially drunk and like very upset just 12 and crying in the background.
12 minutes of two grown men just crying openly on the internet.
That's sobbing uncontrollably new YouTube sensation.
All right, well, and hopefully this game will be sensational in the favor of the bills, but
we'll we'll see this Sunday.
So for all of you listening at home, like share and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts,
Google Apple Spotify and as always go bills.
Five four W's.
Markis 108
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