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Welcome back to the Buffalo Bread podcast.

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We are here in Super Wild Card Weekend.

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It is Friday, January 12th, 2024.

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Happy New Year everybody.

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Dan and I are here to discuss this weekend's matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers coming

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towards your park and what could be a snowy sludge fest, as well as a brief look back

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on the final AFC championship victory over the Miami Dolphins down in Miami.

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Gardens, Florida.

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Dan, what's happening with you, my friend?

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I am excited to be in the playoffs, but JJ, I'm also filled with a lot of trepidation

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as a Bill's fan.

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I'm seeing all of the talking media heads downplaying how good this Chargers team could

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potentially be in the conditions that are lining up weather wise in Buffalo.

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And I'm seeing a lot of bills, bills, bills, bills when I look at predictions for this

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weekend.

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And historically speaking, that has always been bad when this Buffalo team enters any

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type of game situation as a front runner.

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The spread on this game is still insane.

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I think it opened at eight and a half.

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It's now expanded to 10 and a half.

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So there's a lot of money going on the bills.

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But JJ still.

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There's a lot, I think, to be concerned about against Pittsburgh Steelers team, add in some

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of the unpredictable elements that the weather could bring.

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And I think we're in for a low scoring, heart palpitating, potentially agonizing affair

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for our Buffalo bills.

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I think I'm with you in that the thing that the trepidation I have to is that the bills

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against the spread when they're when they're like more than two score favorites are like

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oh and four this year.

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You know, what we see and what we talk about is like, okay, this is a Pittsburgh Steelers

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team that similarly, you know, around the time that the bills in two weeks after the

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bills were six and six, the Steelers were seven and seven and had gone on a three game losing

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skid and were staring back at that, you know, the void and the abyss that they were staring

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at last season too, which is is this going to be the first year under their head coach

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that he's had a below 500 season.

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And then they turned it around with of all people and all unlikely heroes, Mason Rudolph.

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And so, you know, this is a plucky team that's sort of hitting its strides similar to the

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bills, which is a funny thing to say.

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And I will get into this kind of with the matchups.

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Everyone's like, Oh, the bills are getting hot right now.

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The bills have been limping through these games for like four weeks now, including the

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Miami game.

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They're playing basically one good half a football, which tells you what what we've

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been saying all along about the the nature of this roster, they're an elite roster, they're

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extremely talented kind of in all phases of the field.

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To the tune of being able to replace even massive losses to injury and things like that.

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That's true.

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But this we have not seen a complete victory over a team since the since probably the Dallas

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Cowboys game with this bill squad, they have not played kind of all phases, complimentary

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football and really kind of put a team away since that game.

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They've really sort of, you know, they've just been winning the close games that they

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were losing that ended up getting their OC can Dorsey fired.

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Like that's what's happened is they've kind of flipped the field on those close losses

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and made them close wins to make it into the playoffs.

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And I don't want to downplay the the extreme nature of, you know, how important it is that

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they won the division that they're the number two seed in the FC that they are it for all

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intents and purposes, a team that no one in the FC wants to play because they found a

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way to get it done.

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And there's something to be said for winning those close squeakers.

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The NFL is a is a league where one score wins and losses is the norm.

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That's the standard most most games are decided in the last three or four minutes of every

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NFL game.

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Blowouts are rare.

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And that I mean the NFL loves that the competition level is what makes it so, you know, dramatic

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and so much incentive to watch.

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But what I'm really worried about same as you is that this bill's team is, you know,

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the clear and obvious favorite.

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They're clear and obvious favorites every time they play at home.

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We saw them at home against the Patriots barely win.

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So I'm worried, especially in a wind game, which we've seen the bills play in adverse

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conditions three or four times in the past two seasons.

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And they've only really come out with one of those wins.

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And that was against the dolphins at the end of last year.

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The other two losses were against the Bengals in the playoffs in the division around last

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year and then against the Patriots in the wind game two years ago.

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So you know, adverse conditions late in the year in Orchard Park are not a benefit to

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these bills as they're built right now, in my opinion.

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This has been the, I think criticism you and I have both had of this roster build.

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Regular season wise, this Buffalo Bill team plays excellent at home.

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They are seven and one at high mark, seven and two technically in home games because

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of that ridiculous London game.

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They had to play against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

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And in the friendly confines of Buffalo, this team only has one loss on the season.

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So this is a team that plays well in Buffalo, but we have seen them outside of the New England

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Patriots wild card weekend game from a few years back in minus six.

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This is a team in the Sean McDermott era that hasn't really used home field advantage in

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the same way in the playoffs.

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Conditions change roster build comes more into question.

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Now the bills have tried to address a lot of those things with their work on the offensive

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line and Joe Brady's improvements to the run game.

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And those are things that tend to carry well, no matter what the weather is.

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Add to the fact that while the bills might not be getting hot at the right time, this

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Buffalo defense seems to be getting hot at the right time.

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I would love to say that this is going to be a repeat of the wild card game against the

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Patriots from a few years back.

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But I really think what is more than likely to happen is the defense, which it has done

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so often in this run to the vision title is going to have to carry these bills and yet

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another game in rough conditions in Buffalo.

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Agreed.

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And you know, from the buy, since the loss to Philly and then the buy week, the five

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game run that the bills have gone on to win, they haven't let a single opponent score more

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than 22 points.

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And that I think is what can carry the carry the day for this built this bill's team.

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Because even though the offense for the for the Steelers has had a kind of a resurgence

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over these last three weeks, they've been playing middling or bad defenses with Mason

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Rudolph, specifically middling or bad defenses in terms of coverage.

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And then they were playing the backups for the Ravens.

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So people look at it and they'll be like, oh my gosh, the Steelers beat the Ravens twice

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the season.

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No, the Steelers beat the Ravens once and then they built beat the Ravens second and

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third stringers once in in kind of Baltimore in a nasty wet rainy game.

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That's not to say it's not a quality win or a decent win because I think the Ravens

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have a very solid roster and we've seen the bills backups beat the dolphins and other

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teams in the past.

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And they were kind of riding high and ready to go into the playoffs.

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So that's something to be said.

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And I agree with you that the defense has to carry the day because they're the most

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consistent unit the bills have.

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And you know, I think that that's that's something we can look forward to.

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I like to see, you know, this defense because Mason Rudolph's passing success has been basically

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just to George Pickens number 14 on the outside.

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That is something that benefits the bill's defense because they have an they have an

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excellent track record of taking away somebody's favorite target.

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Look at Tyree Kill, look at CD Lamb over these past, you know, we've recent film of the bills

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showing really interesting, you know, cover six or bracket coverage or man plus zone coverage

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in order to kind of erase what a team likes to do with the roots and root tree for a preferred

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target.

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And that's something I think they can do against Mason Rudolph and in this game upcoming.

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Do you want to have some quick comments on the the Dolphins game before we kind of flip

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and then we'll do kind of keys to victory over the Steelers.

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Damn that game felt good.

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Didn't it JJ?

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Like, I mean, I really wish the offensive effort had been a little bit better.

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I'll say that half felt good.

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That moment that punt return happens.

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The rest of the game felt great.

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It really did.

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It really, really did.

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I mean, and through the first half of the game, Josh, Josh's two red zone turnovers just

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befuddling to me, those two throws.

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I was having flashbacks to that week one game and I'm like, of course, this would be the

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bookend on the Buffalo Bill season where Josh gives up and throws away literally the first

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game of the season.

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And he does it in the second game of the season as well.

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But the bills were able to recover and it was in spite, I would say of the offense.

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Miami came out, they had a clear game plan that they were going to shut down the run

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game and they were going to make Josh beat them with his arm.

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And they did exactly what we said they were going to do in the pregame, which is they

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were going to play outside of their typical style, which is Fangio sitting back, rushing

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for dropping seven.

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They ended up dropping a lot of very well time zero Blitz's.

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They were disguising Blitz at the line of scrimmage and really had Josh confused for

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a large part of that first half.

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And I would argue a good chunk of the third quarter as well.

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Josh, as he tends to do, assimilated to those Blitz pressures really well.

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And just because of the personnel deficiencies that Miami had, they didn't really have a

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schematic counter punch they could put out there.

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So you felt the game getting away from Miami at that point on the scoreboard.

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JJ, this was a game that was very, very close.

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But when you look at every other stat or metric coming outside of this game, the bills dominated

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in every phase, almost double the total yards.

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And when you include the special teams yardage, they went for over 500 all purpose yards in

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this game.

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They dominated time of possession 66% of the clock to 30% of the clock for Miami.

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They had every single statistical aspect of this game locked down, except the timing aspect

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of it.

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The timing of those red zone turnovers, the timing of that fumble by Josh at the hands

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of the nefarious and evil Christian Vulcans, who we all hate.

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The Wiener Greber.

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Yes.

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Christian Wilkins Wiener Greber.

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That guy, all of the jet, the bills won JJ every statistical battle in that game, except

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the timing battle.

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And as a result of that, they almost lost the battle on the scoreboard as well.

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But I don't want what was another inconsistent offensive effort to take away from what was

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a phenomenal defensive effort.

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And JJ, it's not the pass rush like we thought it would be at the beginning of the season

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that is holding it down for this defense.

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It is the secondary, what they are doing pre-snap and disguise and then post snap rotation is

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some of the most well coached schematic adjustments.

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I think I have ever seen as a football fan in my time.

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And when you take into account they're doing it without Trey White and Resoul Douglas,

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who has been amazing, but a recent addition and how quickly they've assimilated his skill

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into that Christian Benford, you're doing this without your number one draft pick from

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a couple of years ago in K.R.E.L.M.

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And you're doing it with an aging secondary.

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Dude, we had Taylor Rapp playing free safety, floating coverage on the final game.

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That's not what Taylor Rapp has done in his career.

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Taylor Rapp has been more of a hammer in the box against the run game and a guy who you

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can deploy and really in short yarded bursts.

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The way that they have taken the amalgamation of pieces on this roster and the secondary

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JJ and gotten them to buy into and execute the scheme to perfection, it is absolutely

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unparalleled as far as coaching quality.

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I would put it up against maybe the best coaching job in the league with his team has done with

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the secondary.

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You get a gold star for working amalgamation, which is the word of the pod.

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If you see us in public and say amalgamation will buy you a beer.

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And so with all that, I agree with you completely.

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And this is something to be said for McDermott and I'll say his defensive job over the past

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five weeks of getting this unit ready has been exemplary.

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On top of that, this game against Miami was the first time in the McDermott era ever that

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I can say I watched a game where I agreed with every single decision he made in a critical

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moment.

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And that's something to be said.

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I think that shows the growth mentality we've been begging for for years of when it's clutch,

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when it's tight, he does the hard thing, the riskier thing.

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And you know, the bills in their own 30 go for it on fourth down in a game that's only

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once they only have a one square advantage, but he trusts his players his offense to get

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it.

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He trusts his defense to stop them on a short field if they have to.

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And I think that that that showed a lot of growth.

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That's probably one of the things that gives me the most faith about this squad heading

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into the playoffs over, you know, the fact that they've been inconsistent on offense,

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the fact that they've been turning it over the in timely ways like you pointed out is

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that the defense is playing solid and consistent.

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And Sean McDermott has shown that he can be a coach in clutch situations who does the right

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thing.

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And this is multiple weeks in a row now that he has trusted his offense to get it done.

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Last week versus the Patriots, they came out and they did the, you know, try to draw them

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off sides play we've seen a billion times.

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And when they couldn't draw the Patriots offside on a critical fourth downplay, they went for

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it anyway.

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And that's something that you haven't seen prior to this season.

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And so that tells me a lot about McDermott, probably instead of coaching scared, coaching

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confident.

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And that's, I think, a big step.

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If that's, you know, if that's the story of the season, that can be the story of the

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season is that this, this unit galvanized around a huge slump, huge change, change in

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transition in terms of who they had to cover up for on losing early in the year with Milano,

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Trey White, Dequan Jones for most of the season on defense, and then how they had to adjust

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and adapt on offense with the change of coordinators.

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And so yeah, I agree that the coaching has been excellent.

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And I'm hopeful that it continues.

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I hopeful, I'm hopeful that wasn't a kind of one off experience of seeing McDermott

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coach and clutch situations aggressively and confidently, as opposed to afraid and nervously.

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And I think after 18 weeks of football and 17 games, I think here is my take.

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This team is going to win if they're going to make a Super Bowl run exactly in this way.

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There is no other switch that they're going to flip where all of a sudden Josh stops making

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dumb decisions, or he becomes a more efficient passer at different levels of the field.

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There is too much of a sample size from this season, I think, for us to continue to cling

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to that notion and cling to that fantasy.

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This offense can be very effective, even though it's been less efficient under Joe Brady.

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But with this defense playing at this level, this is a Buffalo Bills team, I think that

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is going to win exactly like we've been seeing them win since the buy.

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Ugly games, questionable decisions made on the offensive side.

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The perfect run that we had in that Patriots game a few years back in the wild card round

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where we scored on seven consecutive drives.

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I don't think that's this team.

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I don't think this team has that switch that they can flip.

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But I do think this is a team who's happy to roll around in the muck with you and win

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in any way that they can.

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Ugly, prettier, otherwise.

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And I think because of that, because this is a team that can win with a variety of different

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phases within the game, I think that makes them an exceptionally dangerous squad for

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any other group that they might face.

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Agreed.

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Agreed completely.

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And, you know, I think that's what the playoffs are always a street fight.

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And we've seen the Bills show up to the playoffs a few seasons in a row now as front runners

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and get punched in the mouth.

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And so I think that this is a chance for them to prove they can be the puncher.

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And so I'm excited for that, this matchup.

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I'm so happy that they shut the Dolphins down.

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I mean, some of the talk coming into that last week's matchup from Dolphins Nation,

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Fins Nation, was just so, oh my God, it was abysmal.

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It was like, yeah, step down, we're the bosses now, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.

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It's like, dude, you had a three game lead with five to go and you squandered away, puked

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all over yourself, and then the effort that the Dolphins put up with with the it was the

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Bills trying to help them with three turnovers that kept that close in the scoreboard that

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should have been a 42 to 14 or 42 to seven game at the end.

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Dan LeBertard, who I love, based out of Miami, amazing sportscaster, podcaster, writer, everything.

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He said it perfectly.

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That's the game you need from Josh Allen to beat the Buffalo Bills.

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He handed it to them on a silver platter, and they couldn't close the deal.

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Listen, I don't like to be a hot take guy, but this is going to feel like a pretty hot

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take.

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Blowing a lead that the Dolphins had with three games to go, being tested in the way

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that they were tested, knowing that the narrative around with them was that they couldn't beat

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quality opponents.

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They couldn't beat winning teams at the point that they faced them.

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They had an opportunity to shut down all of those narratives with some gritty, tough play

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to close out the season.

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They could not get over that hump.

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This should go down as one of the biggest choke jobs in sports history, the way they

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squandered that divisional lead.

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The Bills had it into the buy six and six.

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The Dolphins were still riding high after being one of the quote unquote best offenses

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that we've ever seen in NFL history.

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Push forward to the final five games of the season, the Dolphins averaged under under

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JJ, 20 points a game on offense on offense, a team that lit up the Broncos for 70 earlier

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in the season could not muster 20.

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The TD to INT ratio for two at the end of the season was one to one, passing TDs to

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INTs.

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This is an offense that you and I said, it looks like the league had figured out and

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there were not a lot of wrinkles that McDaniel was throwing other than the run game.

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I stated in the off season that Miami's off season was an off season of arrogance where

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they didn't address any of their deficiencies and tried to double down on their strengths.

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I would say that that arrogance is what cost them the division heading into those last

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weeks of the season.

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Any other team in the league would have been there wanting to prove the doubters wrong

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so bad, the Dolphins really failed to rise to the moment.

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As a result of that, to me, this is one of the biggest choke jobs I've ever seen.

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They failed in every area they needed to succeed.

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And the choke job, I think, started with that Titans.

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They squandered.

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They got two turnovers, two touchdowns in the last four minutes to go up two touchdowns

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over the Titans and the Will Leviss led Titans came back to win that game in the last four

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minutes, which was just amazing.

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And like started this narrative of the choke job that you mentioned.

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I love the stat during the game they showed on the broadcast going in the halftime 14

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to seven.

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It said the dolphins with the lead at halftime are 11 and 0 this season.

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And that's true that it's like we talked about in the preview pod.

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They're front runners.

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They're there to, you know, they want to get the lead.

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They want to keep the lead.

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They want to they want to go for it.

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They're not like we said, the gritty street fight team that this Bill's unit has become

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where they can pull it out when it gets nasty and gross.

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And it got nasty and gross midpoint of that game and then the bills like you mentioned

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with all the statistical, you know, production on the box score pretty much just took over

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the second half to a couldn't do anything.

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It looked abysmal when he was trying to throw it a Tyree kill.

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Tyree kill is not a hundred percent.

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They didn't have Raheem Moser.

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They didn't have Jalen Waddle.

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And I think that that's part of the story.

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One of the, you know, dolphins beat reporter Louise Jacques.

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What's the first?

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Yeah, Marcel Louis Jacques.

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Absolutely. I forgot his first name.

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He used to do the ESPN stuff for the bills before Gessenburg.

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So the thing that he said a couple of times in media hits this this week that I heard

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that I really liked leading up to the dolphins game anyway, was he said that injuries are

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not an excuse, but they can be an explanation.

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And so I think that that's that's reasonable, right?

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Like we as Bill's fans can say that too.

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Like when we're playing without Matt Milano, when we're playing without Dequan Jones, we

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see the difference that can explain the way that teams can attack you a little bit, but

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not an excuse.

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You have to rise up.

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It's next man up in the NFL and it's, you know, not for long league.

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And so seeing the the dolphins come through and just kind of again, puke all over themselves,

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squander a two touchdown or a touchdown lead at the half and then not do anything with

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three turnovers by Josh Allen is just it's it's delicious.

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It's been delicious as Bill's fans this week, I think.

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Agreed.

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I take issue with with Marcel's take only in one small respect, right?

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The injury history of the guys that the dolphins are missing has been very well known.

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They had an offseason where they could have added more depth to the wide receiver room

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and instead decided to roll with what they had and traded for freaking Chase Claypool

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at the trade deadline.

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They signed every single injury prone injury prone running back that they possibly could

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to this roster and they drafted a dynamic, but also injury prone running back and Devon

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H N as well.

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Like it's some point.

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Yes, injuries are not an excuse, but the lack of depth and the personnel choices that dolphins

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made, I think in equal parts led them here because this is also an offense that gets

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guys hurt, especially wide receivers.

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You know, Jalen Waddle has an injury history, yet he's constantly going across the middle

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to find one of these predetermined windows that to wants to throw to and he gets absolutely

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lit up across the middle of the field every single game.

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The same thing is starting to happen to Tyree kill as well.

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If I was a wide receiver, I would not want to play in this offense because it's going

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to shorten my career exponentially.

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But that's the thing to me.

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The lack of self-awareness that the Miami Dolphins approached their roster build and

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personnel decisions in is part of the reason why they got to this point.

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Yes, you cannot predict who is going to get hurt with a great level of accuracy, but they've

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got a lot of injury prone guys on this team with a scheme that invites injury.

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Like I have no sympathy for where they landed at the end of the season at all.

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Yeah.

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No, that's fair.

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That's fair.

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00:22:32,360 --> 00:22:41,040
I'm happy that Tuoh had was able to stay healthy, but I think the league is better when Tuoh

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is playing and I very much like him as a ball distributor.

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00:22:44,280 --> 00:22:49,800
But I think what we've seen now is that this is Tuoh's ceiling without weapons and without

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a clean pocket.

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He is a lesser quarterback and he's not going to get it done in crunch time unless he has

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the talent around him.

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Every single...

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00:22:57,440 --> 00:22:58,440
Which is fine.

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00:22:58,440 --> 00:23:01,240
That's a way that you can win in the league.

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You can point to several Super Bowl winning team, including Joe Flacco's Ravens that made

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the whole run and got a championship with a quarterback who's not going to make...

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00:23:11,360 --> 00:23:14,600
He's not going to put the team on his back, I guess what I'm saying.

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Every single team that beat Miami last season and this season did it the same way.

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Take away the middle of the field, forced to throw to the numbers because he can't do

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it with any level of consistency or efficacy.

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00:23:26,760 --> 00:23:32,840
If I'm a Dolphins fan, other than some of the cool wrinkles in the run game that McDaniel

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00:23:32,840 --> 00:23:36,560
has done, I'm asking where's the real innovation in this offense from year to year?

392
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Where's the evolution?

393
00:23:37,560 --> 00:23:38,560
Where's the growth?

394
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Because it's not there.

395
00:23:39,560 --> 00:23:45,600
Well, it's because there's skill limitation caps on Tuoh's game and that's it.

396
00:23:45,600 --> 00:23:46,600
That's the answer.

397
00:23:46,600 --> 00:23:50,160
First read, middle of the field, if those two things are off the table, which is hard

398
00:23:50,160 --> 00:23:51,160
to do.

399
00:23:51,160 --> 00:23:55,400
Most defenses, especially with the eye candy, the motion, I forget which coach in the league

400
00:23:55,400 --> 00:24:01,360
called the motion towards the line of scrimmage motion, cheat motion.

401
00:24:01,360 --> 00:24:02,360
Because it is.

402
00:24:02,360 --> 00:24:03,360
It is.

403
00:24:03,360 --> 00:24:05,320
It's a kind of...

404
00:24:05,320 --> 00:24:08,960
You're not allowed to move towards the line of scrimmage, but Terry Hill would do a lot

405
00:24:08,960 --> 00:24:14,320
of motions where he took one inside step to be moving forward the moment the ball was

406
00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:15,320
snapped.

407
00:24:15,320 --> 00:24:16,320
Oh, yeah.

408
00:24:16,320 --> 00:24:17,320
Yeah.

409
00:24:17,320 --> 00:24:18,320
Just to get that little bit of an edge.

410
00:24:18,320 --> 00:24:22,280
If you're able to defend against that, then they don't have an answer otherwise.

411
00:24:22,280 --> 00:24:25,720
So I think that that's what we'll see and I was trolling.

412
00:24:25,720 --> 00:24:29,680
I wasn't trolling because I didn't say anything, but I was creeping, I guess, on the Dolphin

413
00:24:29,680 --> 00:24:31,000
subreddit after the game.

414
00:24:31,000 --> 00:24:39,000
And there was a lot of unhappy Fins Nation looking for the change at quarterback or coach,

415
00:24:39,000 --> 00:24:43,600
which I think is that's what happens when you have this kind of late season collapse.

416
00:24:43,600 --> 00:24:45,040
Yeah, absolutely.

417
00:24:45,040 --> 00:24:49,560
That is an appropriate reaction for a fan base that probably never deserved the accolades

418
00:24:49,560 --> 00:24:52,160
that were thrown their way this season anyway.

419
00:24:52,160 --> 00:24:57,640
So, JJ, I have had my fill of Dolphins talk.

420
00:24:57,640 --> 00:24:58,640
Yeah, me too.

421
00:24:58,640 --> 00:24:59,640
I was just going to say, let's move on.

422
00:24:59,640 --> 00:25:02,760
Yeah, I want to move on because I could bash that team all day.

423
00:25:02,760 --> 00:25:03,760
I really could.

424
00:25:03,760 --> 00:25:07,320
So at this transition point, I know we've got some additional downloads.

425
00:25:07,320 --> 00:25:11,720
I'd like to give a shout out to my physical therapy guys who will be listening to this

426
00:25:11,720 --> 00:25:14,120
pod and any other new listeners.

427
00:25:14,120 --> 00:25:17,200
The way this pod goes is Dan and I are, we are fans.

428
00:25:17,200 --> 00:25:18,200
We like the sport.

429
00:25:18,200 --> 00:25:21,800
We know the NFL by just kind of studying and looking at it.

430
00:25:21,800 --> 00:25:26,280
Fans of stats guru, I like X's and O's and every week we do a once a week podcast where

431
00:25:26,280 --> 00:25:30,360
we break down the previous game that the bills have played and then we do the preview of kind

432
00:25:30,360 --> 00:25:32,760
of matchups and things we like in the upcoming weekend.

433
00:25:32,760 --> 00:25:36,120
So we've been talking about both as we go, but now we're going to transition fully into

434
00:25:36,120 --> 00:25:37,120
Bill Steelers.

435
00:25:37,120 --> 00:25:38,120
What do you got first, Dan?

436
00:25:38,120 --> 00:25:39,640
What do you want to start?

437
00:25:39,640 --> 00:25:41,720
I want to start this.

438
00:25:41,720 --> 00:25:45,880
God, let's start with the bills offense against the Steelers defense.

439
00:25:45,880 --> 00:25:50,040
So I had mentioned that the bills are are a team that are happy to roll around in the

440
00:25:50,040 --> 00:25:54,120
muck and the mud and win a game in any way that they can.

441
00:25:54,120 --> 00:25:58,840
That is also the preferred method of winning that the Steelers have had to deploy this season.

442
00:25:58,840 --> 00:26:05,160
So JJ, the Steelers are the first team since 1970 to make the playoffs averaging under

443
00:26:05,160 --> 00:26:07,840
18 points a game on offense.

444
00:26:07,840 --> 00:26:15,720
Offensively this season, the Steelers have averaged 17.9 points per game on offense.

445
00:26:15,720 --> 00:26:20,840
Really putrid going through three QBs this season, eventually landing on Mason Rudolph.

446
00:26:20,840 --> 00:26:25,840
But there's a couple of reasons that the Steelers team is in the position that it's in, especially

447
00:26:25,840 --> 00:26:28,520
being in a competitive vision like the AFC North.

448
00:26:28,520 --> 00:26:30,560
One, they play great defense.

449
00:26:30,560 --> 00:26:33,160
And this is a team that plays a lot of man.

450
00:26:33,160 --> 00:26:38,720
This is a team that is excellent at shutting down your first and second option as well.

451
00:26:38,720 --> 00:26:40,640
And this is a team that's going to blitz.

452
00:26:40,640 --> 00:26:45,480
They've got a top five blitz rate in the league coming into the postseason right now.

453
00:26:45,480 --> 00:26:50,080
So this is a team that likes to throw a lot of confusing stuff at opposing QBs and bring

454
00:26:50,080 --> 00:26:53,200
the opposing offense down to their level.

455
00:26:53,200 --> 00:26:54,680
Keep the game close.

456
00:26:54,680 --> 00:26:58,240
This is a team also that hasn't been great running the ball on offense this season, but

457
00:26:58,240 --> 00:27:00,760
they've gotten better at it as they've gone on.

458
00:27:00,760 --> 00:27:04,440
And listen, this is going to sound like shade, but it's not.

459
00:27:04,440 --> 00:27:09,400
The Steelers team has also been JJ incredibly lucky when it comes to turnover worthy plays.

460
00:27:09,400 --> 00:27:14,720
They sit at the league average DVOA for the amount of turn turnover worthy plays that

461
00:27:14,720 --> 00:27:16,720
they have put out there this season.

462
00:27:16,720 --> 00:27:23,400
Fumbles on offense, missed opportunities on defense, but they've benefited from an exceptional

463
00:27:23,400 --> 00:27:24,720
amount of luck.

464
00:27:24,720 --> 00:27:30,040
They have the same amount of offensive fumbles as the Buffalo Bills do this season, 18 and

465
00:27:30,040 --> 00:27:31,040
18.

466
00:27:31,040 --> 00:27:36,000
But the Steelers have recovered those fumbles at the fourth highest clip in the league,

467
00:27:36,000 --> 00:27:40,040
whereas the Bills are 27th of the league at recovering their own fumbles.

468
00:27:40,040 --> 00:27:41,920
That is a pure, it's a pure luck stat.

469
00:27:41,920 --> 00:27:44,760
It depends on where the ball bounces and all that kind of stuff.

470
00:27:44,760 --> 00:27:50,200
So the Steelers have been able to dictate game script with their defense this season

471
00:27:50,200 --> 00:27:52,880
and have also benefited from a little bit of luck.

472
00:27:52,880 --> 00:27:58,280
It's going to be interesting to see how the Bills respond because JJ, especially the Bills

473
00:27:58,280 --> 00:28:02,080
offense, they've been happy to play whatever game script gets thrown at them.

474
00:28:02,080 --> 00:28:08,240
This has not been a team since the buy outside of that Dallas game that is offensively dictated

475
00:28:08,240 --> 00:28:09,880
what the game script is.

476
00:28:09,880 --> 00:28:15,280
It feels like it feels like a matchup that the Steelers are kind of salivating for because

477
00:28:15,280 --> 00:28:19,080
they know they're going to have a willing dance partner to dance around in the muck

478
00:28:19,080 --> 00:28:21,720
in Josh Allen on the other side of the ball.

479
00:28:21,720 --> 00:28:23,640
Oh, yeah, they are.

480
00:28:23,640 --> 00:28:26,800
They're looking at this is like this is this is the script.

481
00:28:26,800 --> 00:28:30,440
So there's a couple of different things that I think benefit the Steelers defense against

482
00:28:30,440 --> 00:28:31,440
this Bills offense.

483
00:28:31,440 --> 00:28:37,280
And one is that the Bills have struggled profoundly against odd front Blitz heavy schemes.

484
00:28:37,280 --> 00:28:41,760
The Steelers blitz sixth most in the league at per, you know, per snap.

485
00:28:41,760 --> 00:28:45,280
And they do have that three, four odd front where they have more linebackers on the field

486
00:28:45,280 --> 00:28:46,680
than they have down linemen.

487
00:28:46,680 --> 00:28:53,320
On top of that, you know, even without TJ Watt playing in this game, the Pittsburgh Steelers

488
00:28:53,320 --> 00:28:59,080
have a combination front and down linemen that I think can really give the Bills problems.

489
00:28:59,080 --> 00:29:03,280
If Keanu Benton was a player coming out that I really liked in the draft, he's had a decent

490
00:29:03,280 --> 00:29:04,280
season.

491
00:29:04,280 --> 00:29:08,000
He's been a word, of course, late in his career, but has been kind of a Bills killer.

492
00:29:08,000 --> 00:29:14,200
And then we saw that in the preseason game, even that the Nick Herbig, a rookie as well,

493
00:29:14,200 --> 00:29:16,880
was like wrecking the Bills in snaps.

494
00:29:16,880 --> 00:29:24,320
And so to see how this offensive line handles that front, you know, Larry Oghanjobi is a

495
00:29:24,320 --> 00:29:26,440
solid player.

496
00:29:26,440 --> 00:29:30,720
Marcus Golden is a good pass rusher who's kind of one of those savvy vets.

497
00:29:30,720 --> 00:29:35,160
They've got a lot going for them, and then not to mention Alex Highsmith, who I think

498
00:29:35,160 --> 00:29:42,560
is it's the kind of thing that Alex Highsmith is to TJ Watt as Phil Hanson was to Bruce

499
00:29:42,560 --> 00:29:43,560
Smith.

500
00:29:43,560 --> 00:29:49,640
He is a he is a motor player who gets sacks and like gets pressure because he never gives

501
00:29:49,640 --> 00:29:50,640
up.

502
00:29:50,640 --> 00:29:52,400
He's technically sound and he works extra hard for it.

503
00:29:52,400 --> 00:29:56,500
And so I think that that's the kind of thing that that has hurt the Bills have seen those

504
00:29:56,500 --> 00:30:01,560
matchups and struggled with them specifically in situations where there is a really strong

505
00:30:01,560 --> 00:30:06,080
interior pressure player like Cam Hayward and a solid, you know, motor player on the

506
00:30:06,080 --> 00:30:08,160
outside like Alex Highsmith.

507
00:30:08,160 --> 00:30:10,480
That's been giving the Bills a lot of problems this season.

508
00:30:10,480 --> 00:30:12,760
And so I'm worried about that.

509
00:30:12,760 --> 00:30:16,640
And I think that again, as you mentioned, this Pittsburgh Steelers defense is the kind

510
00:30:16,640 --> 00:30:22,760
that takes advantage of mistakes and tends to play, you know, sound football on the back

511
00:30:22,760 --> 00:30:27,400
end and not make a lot of mistakes, not a lot of blown coverage with, you know, with

512
00:30:27,400 --> 00:30:31,880
the exceptions here and there, I think that Steelers fans probably would say that they

513
00:30:31,880 --> 00:30:36,640
they've preferred this season when Minka Fitzpatrick was out of the lineup because he is one of

514
00:30:36,640 --> 00:30:40,640
those players in the back end and coverage who takes risks kind of like Russell Douglas,

515
00:30:40,640 --> 00:30:44,640
he reads and tries to jump routes and has been burned by that a few times.

516
00:30:44,640 --> 00:30:48,640
But also he's an all pro level player, like he, you know, you kind of trust him to do

517
00:30:48,640 --> 00:30:49,640
that.

518
00:30:49,640 --> 00:30:51,680
Same as it's sort of like a Josh Allen of the defense, right?

519
00:30:51,680 --> 00:30:55,280
He's gonna he's gonna put some put some tape out there that you're like, oof, that's a

520
00:30:55,280 --> 00:30:58,000
rough choice to make and kind of blew the play.

521
00:30:58,000 --> 00:31:02,760
But then on the counterpoint, he'll make that same choice the next play and pick it off and

522
00:31:02,760 --> 00:31:05,200
kind of and get it get a nice return and those sorts of things.

523
00:31:05,200 --> 00:31:10,160
So, you know, this defense is like you said, they're happy, probably happily dancing into

524
00:31:10,160 --> 00:31:15,280
Orchard Park on, you know, on house money, because there was a point in time where they

525
00:31:15,280 --> 00:31:19,200
never expected to be able to make it into the playoffs again, playing with their third

526
00:31:19,200 --> 00:31:20,200
QB.

527
00:31:20,200 --> 00:31:24,960
And to the point that you made prior about the, you know, not that we're switching over

528
00:31:24,960 --> 00:31:29,280
to the offense for the Steelers yet, they haven't averaged many points per game, but

529
00:31:29,280 --> 00:31:32,200
they've had two of the last three games where they got 30 or more.

530
00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:37,760
So I don't think we can count on, you know, this being a super low scoring game, especially

531
00:31:37,760 --> 00:31:41,160
if they can establish the run, but flipping back to the defense.

532
00:31:41,160 --> 00:31:45,240
This is, you know, the kind of thing where the bills need to have their front solid and

533
00:31:45,240 --> 00:31:48,280
they need to give Osiris Torrance some help.

534
00:31:48,280 --> 00:31:53,000
And I say that because the last few weeks he has struggled quite a lot in getting off

535
00:31:53,000 --> 00:31:57,440
of twists and stunts in the middle of the defense.

536
00:31:57,440 --> 00:32:01,880
And it, you know, I think that the rookie wall sometimes can be sort of overblown, but I

537
00:32:01,880 --> 00:32:03,520
think it's real this time.

538
00:32:03,520 --> 00:32:08,080
He's had 1300 snaps or so this season, and the most he ever had in a single season in

539
00:32:08,080 --> 00:32:10,560
college was about 820.

540
00:32:10,560 --> 00:32:15,400
And so I think that it's real that he might be, you know, running to the end of his end

541
00:32:15,400 --> 00:32:17,400
of his limit with this season.

542
00:32:17,400 --> 00:32:18,920
He's at the rookie wall.

543
00:32:18,920 --> 00:32:19,920
Yeah.

544
00:32:19,920 --> 00:32:20,920
He's at the wall.

545
00:32:20,920 --> 00:32:24,000
I love the season he's put together and I'm really excited to see a full off season where

546
00:32:24,000 --> 00:32:28,360
he's not doing draft prep and, you know, preparing to run a 40 yard dash and all that nonsense.

547
00:32:28,360 --> 00:32:33,920
And instead is working to, you know, increase his stamina for the season, improve his game

548
00:32:33,920 --> 00:32:37,120
and prove his understanding of the playbook, no sorts of things.

549
00:32:37,120 --> 00:32:39,680
And not be, you know, wondering what team he's going to play for at all, but rather

550
00:32:39,680 --> 00:32:43,800
know exactly what he needs to do for this offense and this position in this situation.

551
00:32:43,800 --> 00:32:49,480
So I'm expecting the bill's offense to roll out some 12 personnel with Knox and Kinkade

552
00:32:49,480 --> 00:32:50,840
on the field at the same time.

553
00:32:50,840 --> 00:32:56,320
I would love to see some 22 personnel, especially if the weather is bad, because the bills do

554
00:32:56,320 --> 00:33:01,240
have, you know, they have a decent fullback.

555
00:33:01,240 --> 00:33:03,080
And you know, I think that they have some bigger backs.

556
00:33:03,080 --> 00:33:05,680
I'm expecting playoff Lenny to be elevated.

557
00:33:05,680 --> 00:33:10,600
If Ty Johnson is out for this game with that injury he suffered, I expect that maybe Leonard

558
00:33:10,600 --> 00:33:14,360
Fornette and Latavius Murray are up with James Cook.

559
00:33:14,360 --> 00:33:18,040
And I would, I would like to see some heavy set with James Cook run in the ball.

560
00:33:18,040 --> 00:33:22,160
The past three or four weeks, he's been bad at yards after contact, which is something

561
00:33:22,160 --> 00:33:26,120
that we both were really impressed by early in the season for Cook, where he'd take some

562
00:33:26,120 --> 00:33:29,840
contact and squirt forward for three or four yards extra.

563
00:33:29,840 --> 00:33:33,160
He's been kind of going down on the spot for the last four or five weeks.

564
00:33:33,160 --> 00:33:37,640
And I wonder how much that is him, how much that is like kind of changes in the blocking,

565
00:33:37,640 --> 00:33:42,320
how much of that is like, you know, him not getting as much room to work in the rushing

566
00:33:42,320 --> 00:33:43,320
game.

567
00:33:43,320 --> 00:33:46,360
So, or and how much of that is the defense is keying on him, because I think that what

568
00:33:46,360 --> 00:33:51,160
we'll see from the Steelers defense, they have a suspect linebacking core, I think they're

569
00:33:51,160 --> 00:33:55,360
on their third and fourth kind of, you know, similar to the bills in this game, you know,

570
00:33:55,360 --> 00:33:58,360
they're in backup mode with linebackers.

571
00:33:58,360 --> 00:34:02,720
But that defensive front, again, similar to the bills is like the strength of their defense.

572
00:34:02,720 --> 00:34:06,640
So we're going to see what happens on offense and how that defense from the Steelers keys

573
00:34:06,640 --> 00:34:10,560
on James Cook, because the last few weeks, a lot of defensive coordinators have been

574
00:34:10,560 --> 00:34:12,880
really focused on shutting him down.

575
00:34:12,880 --> 00:34:15,320
And I think that that's been effective.

576
00:34:15,320 --> 00:34:19,800
And so how are the bills going to make them pay if they load the box?

577
00:34:19,800 --> 00:34:23,720
And Josh Allen's able to cut through some of this wind and throw the outside.

578
00:34:23,720 --> 00:34:31,280
Yeah, you know, the Steelers unit JJ is the number six by DVOA ranked passing defense

579
00:34:31,280 --> 00:34:32,360
in the league.

580
00:34:32,360 --> 00:34:34,880
And they are they are incredible.

581
00:34:34,880 --> 00:34:40,720
They are no worse than seven when taking away an opposing teams first two outside options,

582
00:34:40,720 --> 00:34:45,480
wide receiver one and wide receiver two, and taking away an opposing teams tight end,

583
00:34:45,480 --> 00:34:49,800
which despite those linebacker injuries, I think is a testament to the role that make

584
00:34:49,800 --> 00:34:52,520
a fix Patrick plays in their past game as well.

585
00:34:52,520 --> 00:34:58,080
I would look in a very, very excited way to see what's going to happen if it's Patrick

586
00:34:58,080 --> 00:35:02,720
finds himself one on one with Dalton Kincaid, if with the bills do decide to roll out some

587
00:35:02,720 --> 00:35:04,760
some 22.

588
00:35:04,760 --> 00:35:09,040
All that being said, though, there are a couple of areas where you can attack this Steelers

589
00:35:09,040 --> 00:35:10,040
defense.

590
00:35:10,040 --> 00:35:13,480
And I think the first area is out of the slot.

591
00:35:13,480 --> 00:35:19,280
So the Pittsburgh Steelers this season are 17th, according to DVOA when defending against

592
00:35:19,280 --> 00:35:20,280
the slot.

593
00:35:20,280 --> 00:35:23,520
Now, we're just got out, we're not going to have Gabe Davis for this game.

594
00:35:23,520 --> 00:35:26,360
So it's going to be interesting to see what happens on the outside.

595
00:35:26,360 --> 00:35:30,920
I think the Buffalo Bills are going to play a lot more Trent Scherfield to also tidy

596
00:35:30,920 --> 00:35:34,320
up things in the end blocking for James Cook on the outside as well.

597
00:35:34,320 --> 00:35:38,600
I think we're going to see a little bit more outside zone with Cook as a result of that.

598
00:35:38,600 --> 00:35:43,000
But I think that's going to free up Khalil Shakir to hopefully have an amazing day coming

599
00:35:43,000 --> 00:35:44,240
out of the slot.

600
00:35:44,240 --> 00:35:50,760
He had a couple of breakout plays in that Dolphins game and he is the only Buffalo

601
00:35:50,760 --> 00:35:53,200
Bills primary wide receiver.

602
00:35:53,200 --> 00:35:57,000
So one through three on the depth chart that doesn't have a drop this season.

603
00:35:57,000 --> 00:35:59,240
JJ, he's been a reliable target.

604
00:35:59,240 --> 00:36:01,480
His routes are always on time.

605
00:36:01,480 --> 00:36:06,520
And I think even with the weather playing out the way it's going to be in Buffalo, Shakir

606
00:36:06,520 --> 00:36:11,840
could be a big key against this Pittsburgh Steelers defense in opening some things up

607
00:36:11,840 --> 00:36:13,280
for Josh Allen.

608
00:36:13,280 --> 00:36:19,400
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense also struggles JJ in defending opposing teams running backs

609
00:36:19,400 --> 00:36:25,120
out when they come out allowing scrimmage to catch passes out of the backfield.

610
00:36:25,120 --> 00:36:28,760
That speaks exactly to your point about the struggles this linebacking chorus had with

611
00:36:28,760 --> 00:36:30,760
injury and with performance this season.

612
00:36:30,760 --> 00:36:37,400
And if you're going to dedicate or if you're going to shadow Fitzpatrick over Stefan Diggs

613
00:36:37,400 --> 00:36:42,160
or if you're going to give him the assignment of Dalton Kincaid, James Cook, while he may

614
00:36:42,160 --> 00:36:47,000
struggle to run the ball against heavy boxes could potentially eat and catching areas out

615
00:36:47,000 --> 00:36:48,600
of the backfield as well.

616
00:36:48,600 --> 00:36:51,560
To me, JJ, the recipe for success here is simple.

617
00:36:51,560 --> 00:36:56,240
A heavy dose of James Cook out of the backfield and a heavy dose of Khalil Shakir who has

618
00:36:56,240 --> 00:36:58,760
been your most reliable.

619
00:36:58,760 --> 00:37:04,160
And I say that with no hesitance, you are most reliable wide receiving target this season

620
00:37:04,160 --> 00:37:05,680
game in and gave out.

621
00:37:05,680 --> 00:37:10,800
If those two guys are featured in this game plan, it sticks with the Joe Brady strategy

622
00:37:10,800 --> 00:37:15,200
that he has deployed for so many games, which is to relentlessly attack the one thing he

623
00:37:15,200 --> 00:37:16,840
knows you can't stop.

624
00:37:16,840 --> 00:37:21,440
And the Steelers do not have the personnel to deploy to stop guys coming out of the slot

625
00:37:21,440 --> 00:37:25,920
and they struggle with running backs coming out to catch passes out of the backfield.

626
00:37:25,920 --> 00:37:31,120
If I'm Brady, I am scheming for Shakir, I'm scheming for Cook, and I'm scheming for playoff

627
00:37:31,120 --> 00:37:35,240
Lenny who is an excellent catcher of the football out of the backfield.

628
00:37:35,240 --> 00:37:39,560
And I'm going to let Pittsburgh do what I want to do because I know I can beat them that

629
00:37:39,560 --> 00:37:40,560
way.

630
00:37:40,560 --> 00:37:41,560
Yeah, agreed.

631
00:37:41,560 --> 00:37:45,040
And I think that too, that's going to play, you know, especially if the weather's bad,

632
00:37:45,040 --> 00:37:50,200
Josh Allen has enough of an arm to throw within 10 yards, within 15 yards of the line of scrimmage,

633
00:37:50,200 --> 00:37:54,400
even in strong winds to some of those targets if they need to get it out quick because of

634
00:37:54,400 --> 00:37:55,400
the pass rush.

635
00:37:55,400 --> 00:38:01,680
And in the run game, you know, Alex Highsmith and Nick Herbig on the outside, they are not

636
00:38:01,680 --> 00:38:08,680
huge, you know, they're not the same size as like Greg Rousseau, or another kind of large,

637
00:38:08,680 --> 00:38:12,480
they're not TJ Watt, they're not like a specimen who's going to be able to set the

638
00:38:12,480 --> 00:38:13,760
edge and hold it.

639
00:38:13,760 --> 00:38:17,760
If you get them on duo blocks, if you use your tight ends, if you use kind of a lead

640
00:38:17,760 --> 00:38:18,800
block or those sorts of things.

641
00:38:18,800 --> 00:38:22,120
So I think there's some opportunities here in the, in the run game, especially with the

642
00:38:22,120 --> 00:38:25,880
tackle wrap, the dark concept, the duo, some of the stuff that the bills have shown that

643
00:38:25,880 --> 00:38:28,000
they can, they can pull off in the run game.

644
00:38:28,000 --> 00:38:32,080
If they're able to establish the physical tone and double it, you know, Cam Hayward

645
00:38:32,080 --> 00:38:37,080
and double and give Osiris Torrance some help at the point of attack, I think that they

646
00:38:37,080 --> 00:38:41,080
can, you know, Spencer Brown and Osiris Torrance can make some, some hay in the running game,

647
00:38:41,080 --> 00:38:45,880
they can run off that right side, basically run directly at, you know, some of these lighter,

648
00:38:45,880 --> 00:38:50,160
more technician based pass rushers for the Pittsburgh Steelers.

649
00:38:50,160 --> 00:38:54,240
And then of course, come off of that with play action, because Josh Allen, though he's

650
00:38:54,240 --> 00:38:59,960
had an inconsistent season, and you and I were talking kind of pre-pod about how he's regressed

651
00:38:59,960 --> 00:39:00,960
in a lot of ways.

652
00:39:00,960 --> 00:39:04,880
And some of the things that we've expected him to do better and be better at, he has

653
00:39:04,880 --> 00:39:07,040
actually taken pretty major steps back.

654
00:39:07,040 --> 00:39:08,400
He's his passing chart.

655
00:39:08,400 --> 00:39:12,240
He's basically only throwing really accurate balls to the right side of the field.

656
00:39:12,240 --> 00:39:15,200
He's missing and losing some routes to the left side of the field.

657
00:39:15,200 --> 00:39:19,880
His deep ball accuracy is less than half that of what it was last season.

658
00:39:19,880 --> 00:39:24,840
There's a lot of areas that he's struggled in, but you know, short and easy completions,

659
00:39:24,840 --> 00:39:28,840
quick in the face of pressure and play action is the secret here.

660
00:39:28,840 --> 00:39:33,640
Establish the run and use play action, because that is the one area of his game that he has

661
00:39:33,640 --> 00:39:39,560
consistently been able to deliver on and has an outstanding TD to interception ratio, has

662
00:39:39,560 --> 00:39:43,960
an outstanding completion percentage, has an outstanding passer rating when using play

663
00:39:43,960 --> 00:39:44,960
action Dan.

664
00:39:44,960 --> 00:39:49,680
So I'm expecting and hoping that we see Joe Brady work some play action in that they can

665
00:39:49,680 --> 00:39:53,480
neutralize some of the pass rush with the run and that they can, you know, make some

666
00:39:53,480 --> 00:39:55,440
of those easy button short completions.

667
00:39:55,440 --> 00:39:56,440
This is playoff football.

668
00:39:56,440 --> 00:40:01,880
I think that what we see from Josh Allen this week on offense is going to help set the tone

669
00:40:01,880 --> 00:40:05,440
for what we expect this team to do in the entire playoffs if they're able to make it

670
00:40:05,440 --> 00:40:07,720
past the Steelers this weekend.

671
00:40:07,720 --> 00:40:12,160
If we see him, you know, using, you know, playing within the scope of the offense, using some

672
00:40:12,160 --> 00:40:17,480
of those route concepts and not turning down the easy passes, easy completions.

673
00:40:17,480 --> 00:40:23,160
I think this is a team that's primed for a deep run as long as the defense stays consistent.

674
00:40:23,160 --> 00:40:28,640
But if we see kind of what we saw in the first half against the Dolphins, where he's, you

675
00:40:28,640 --> 00:40:32,520
know, making some kind of boneheaded plays, he's turning down the easy two or three yard

676
00:40:32,520 --> 00:40:37,320
completion on fourth and one, and instead throwing an interception, that this may be

677
00:40:37,320 --> 00:40:41,120
a brief outing into the playoffs for the bills.

678
00:40:41,120 --> 00:40:43,080
Yeah, I agree.

679
00:40:43,080 --> 00:40:47,000
And I'm glad you brought up because I think this is a tough topic for people to discuss.

680
00:40:47,000 --> 00:40:50,880
Some of the regression, and I think it's fair to call our regression that we've seen in

681
00:40:50,880 --> 00:40:53,400
Josh's game this season.

682
00:40:53,400 --> 00:40:59,120
Last season, JJ, he was an, he was an average to above average passer to every level of

683
00:40:59,120 --> 00:41:01,000
the field and he dominated downfield.

684
00:41:01,000 --> 00:41:06,760
It was one of his best deep ball, deep ball passing seasons that he's ever had this year.

685
00:41:06,760 --> 00:41:10,720
And I don't know what it is, but teams have really locked down the middle of the field

686
00:41:10,720 --> 00:41:14,080
in the left side of the field and they're forcing Josh to his right.

687
00:41:14,080 --> 00:41:17,960
And he's been effective, but they're basically forcing him to play with one arm tied behind

688
00:41:17,960 --> 00:41:18,960
his back.

689
00:41:18,960 --> 00:41:22,720
You and I talked preseason about the need to exploit the middle of the field to help

690
00:41:22,720 --> 00:41:24,520
Josh's game grow.

691
00:41:24,520 --> 00:41:28,280
And he hasn't done that, but credit to the Spills coaching staff, because they have really

692
00:41:28,280 --> 00:41:32,440
developed him into one of the best play action passers in the league.

693
00:41:32,440 --> 00:41:33,520
So I agree with you.

694
00:41:33,520 --> 00:41:38,840
I think the recipe for success here is Shakir, it's Cook, and it's using some of this play

695
00:41:38,840 --> 00:41:43,000
action that they've so intentionally developed into Josh's game.

696
00:41:43,000 --> 00:41:45,440
And listen, keep it simple for him, right?

697
00:41:45,440 --> 00:41:51,360
Like this Buffalo Bills team is fourth when it comes to time of possession in 28th when

698
00:41:51,360 --> 00:41:54,040
it comes to pace of play this year.

699
00:41:54,040 --> 00:41:58,520
Those are things JJ that you and I have lamented at times because we've want to see the Bills

700
00:41:58,520 --> 00:42:03,880
run the a-gun offense out there where Josh is just in the muddle huddle or no huddle

701
00:42:03,880 --> 00:42:08,800
and calling his shots and reacting as he goes because he is a better passer when it comes

702
00:42:08,800 --> 00:42:10,440
to that.

703
00:42:10,440 --> 00:42:13,960
And that is not something I think that's going to benefit the Bills with the weather or against

704
00:42:13,960 --> 00:42:16,880
the opponent they're facing this particular game.

705
00:42:16,880 --> 00:42:21,640
So I think everything that the Bills have structured in Allen's game for better or worse

706
00:42:21,640 --> 00:42:25,840
can absolutely be optimized and it's going to need to be optimized if they're going to

707
00:42:25,840 --> 00:42:32,000
get away from what I think is going to be a surprisingly tough opponent for them.

708
00:42:32,000 --> 00:42:34,560
So do you want to switch over to the other side of the ball JJ?

709
00:42:34,560 --> 00:42:37,360
Yeah, yeah, Bills D versus Mason Rudolph.

710
00:42:37,360 --> 00:42:41,600
Sure, I'll give one last thought on the Steelers defense to the Bills offense.

711
00:42:41,600 --> 00:42:44,960
I think that, you know, my final thought is like, of course, we've talked about all the

712
00:42:44,960 --> 00:42:48,560
different keys to this Bills offense taking the day.

713
00:42:48,560 --> 00:42:55,040
The Steelers defense is probably the one defense in the league that I've watched on film that

714
00:42:55,040 --> 00:42:59,320
populates to the football better or at the same rate as the Bills offense.

715
00:42:59,320 --> 00:43:04,920
The things that we love about the Bills offense or the Bills defense, sorry, about, you know,

716
00:43:04,920 --> 00:43:09,760
more hats, more blue jerseys in the area, more guys at the point of attack, you know,

717
00:43:09,760 --> 00:43:12,280
taking down a runner, stripping the ball out.

718
00:43:12,280 --> 00:43:17,160
Christian Benford's, you know, strip play with against the Patriots was purely just

719
00:43:17,160 --> 00:43:20,840
that he was there with nothing else to do other than try for the punch out because there

720
00:43:20,840 --> 00:43:24,000
was so many Bills defenders in the area to secure the tackle.

721
00:43:24,000 --> 00:43:26,040
I think that this Steelers defense does that as well.

722
00:43:26,040 --> 00:43:29,440
So, you know, ball security is going to be huge for somebody like James Cook, who has

723
00:43:29,440 --> 00:43:34,400
shown some fumbling issues, some turnover issues for Josh Allen, for that matter, who likes

724
00:43:34,400 --> 00:43:37,600
to play it fast and loose when he runs the ball, expect him to be a runner at different

725
00:43:37,600 --> 00:43:39,560
times in this game.

726
00:43:39,560 --> 00:43:43,240
And you know, for any other player, you know, wide receiver, you know, skill position player

727
00:43:43,240 --> 00:43:46,520
tight end, got to secure the ball because they populate to the football.

728
00:43:46,520 --> 00:43:50,360
But yeah, let's let's flip over to the Bills offense or the Bills defense sorry against

729
00:43:50,360 --> 00:43:55,080
this Mason Rudolph led Steelers offense.

730
00:43:55,080 --> 00:43:59,240
We shouldn't scoff because as you mentioned, this has not been a good offense points per

731
00:43:59,240 --> 00:44:04,360
game wise, but he did have granted against some soft defenses, a couple of 30 point efforts.

732
00:44:04,360 --> 00:44:08,720
He built almost exclusively on forcing the ball downfield.

733
00:44:08,720 --> 00:44:10,800
It's like Mason Rudolph got his second shot at this.

734
00:44:10,800 --> 00:44:14,320
He's like, F it, already screwed it up the last time I'm playing with house money.

735
00:44:14,320 --> 00:44:19,760
He's been bombing, with the ball, the George Pickens, no matter the coverage.

736
00:44:19,760 --> 00:44:22,040
And George Pickens has made him right several times.

737
00:44:22,040 --> 00:44:25,320
I think George Pickens throughout the season has gotten some grief.

738
00:44:25,320 --> 00:44:29,480
I mean, even made public comments that he's not going to block on a run play because he

739
00:44:29,480 --> 00:44:33,200
doesn't want to get injured like Tank Dell or, you know, how does Pittsburgh keep getting

740
00:44:33,200 --> 00:44:34,200
these wide receivers?

741
00:44:34,200 --> 00:44:36,840
How do they keep drafting these guys that are like this?

742
00:44:36,840 --> 00:44:38,880
It's like, what's the yeah, what's the arc?

743
00:44:38,880 --> 00:44:44,000
Because it's like, yeah, leave me on bell and Tony and Tony O Brown like, Tony O Brown,

744
00:44:44,000 --> 00:44:46,960
my God, we're gonna and then, you know, Chase Claypool.

745
00:44:46,960 --> 00:44:49,000
How do they keep doing this?

746
00:44:49,000 --> 00:44:51,560
Who's the guy who was dancing on the logos?

747
00:44:51,560 --> 00:44:54,200
Oh, Juju Smith Schuster, Juju Smith Schuster.

748
00:44:54,200 --> 00:44:59,320
Yeah, like, it's like, in order to play at a skill possession is position in Pittsburgh,

749
00:44:59,320 --> 00:45:04,840
you either have to be, you know, like, I think Najee Harris is more in the tone of like the

750
00:45:04,840 --> 00:45:09,720
Jerome Bettis type, you know, the like workman like, a great solid, you know, like, but I

751
00:45:09,720 --> 00:45:13,440
but it's so funny for so many other skill position players over the past decade or whatever,

752
00:45:13,440 --> 00:45:18,200
it's like this guy's like an absolute nightmare in the locker room in terms of personality

753
00:45:18,200 --> 00:45:19,400
issues and conflicts.

754
00:45:19,400 --> 00:45:22,960
And so here we have George, you know, George Pickens saying he's not going to block for

755
00:45:22,960 --> 00:45:28,000
Jalen Warren, and then, you know, and getting roasted for it.

756
00:45:28,000 --> 00:45:31,680
But in terms of catching the ball, he has done some amazing things for Mason Rudolph.

757
00:45:31,680 --> 00:45:35,480
He basically said, you know, I'll make you right no matter how bad or weird the throw

758
00:45:35,480 --> 00:45:36,480
is.

759
00:45:36,480 --> 00:45:37,480
And it's paid off.

760
00:45:37,480 --> 00:45:39,840
That's how they've gotten some deep shot touchdowns.

761
00:45:39,840 --> 00:45:42,720
Mason Rudolph, like you said, is just going to let it rip.

762
00:45:42,720 --> 00:45:47,400
And we'll see with the wind with the bills, better than the Steelers have faced passing

763
00:45:47,400 --> 00:45:52,280
defense and better than the Steelers has faced past rush.

764
00:45:52,280 --> 00:45:57,120
Because I think that you what you saw with the Steelers last few weeks is they've faced,

765
00:45:57,120 --> 00:46:02,360
you know, middling to poor defenses, specifically in past coverage and in past rush.

766
00:46:02,360 --> 00:46:06,960
And that's two areas that the bills have been exempt, exemptional at this these past five

767
00:46:06,960 --> 00:46:07,960
weeks.

768
00:46:07,960 --> 00:46:11,440
And so we'll see, you know, what shows up here for the bills defense.

769
00:46:11,440 --> 00:46:14,680
And I think some of the injuries are going to, you know, play a factor.

770
00:46:14,680 --> 00:46:21,640
It looks like, you know, we probably we won't see Taylor wrap, we know that much.

771
00:46:21,640 --> 00:46:24,360
We may not see Russell Douglas.

772
00:46:24,360 --> 00:46:31,120
We may not see Tarell Dodson, which means it's going to be, you know, ripe for possible

773
00:46:31,120 --> 00:46:36,440
bail inspector game who I thought had some really nice snaps against the dolphins fitting

774
00:46:36,440 --> 00:46:39,480
the run when Tarell Dodson went out.

775
00:46:39,480 --> 00:46:44,800
And then AJ Klein signed to the practice squad this week, possible call up for this game

776
00:46:44,800 --> 00:46:45,800
as well.

777
00:46:45,800 --> 00:46:51,600
And I'll say this, for this bills defense, I would be worried if they if somebody was

778
00:46:51,600 --> 00:46:56,320
like, ooh, bail inspector and AJ Klein might be in in three, you know, three linebacker

779
00:46:56,320 --> 00:47:02,200
sets this week in the playoffs, I'd be worried about almost any team other than the Pittsburgh

780
00:47:02,200 --> 00:47:05,040
Steelers for the Pittsburgh Steelers, that might be actually a boon.

781
00:47:05,040 --> 00:47:09,600
Because I think AJ Klein and bail inspector both do something that, you know, other linebackers

782
00:47:09,600 --> 00:47:10,720
on the team don't do.

783
00:47:10,720 --> 00:47:14,960
And that's fit the run when it's coming straight at them extremely well.

784
00:47:14,960 --> 00:47:17,400
And that is exactly what the Steelers do.

785
00:47:17,400 --> 00:47:19,560
They're not a wide zone.

786
00:47:19,560 --> 00:47:24,400
You know, they're not a, you know, sideline to sideline motion team like the dolphins

787
00:47:24,400 --> 00:47:26,560
are with the way that they like to run the ball.

788
00:47:26,560 --> 00:47:30,920
The Steelers basically say we have our guys, you have our your guys, we're coming straight

789
00:47:30,920 --> 00:47:32,320
at you try to stop us.

790
00:47:32,320 --> 00:47:36,400
We got Najihara's who's like six to 240 pounds.

791
00:47:36,400 --> 00:47:37,760
And he's a hammer.

792
00:47:37,760 --> 00:47:44,240
And their whole their whole offense is predicated in the run game on trying to get Najihara's

793
00:47:44,240 --> 00:47:49,760
one on one with any of your defensive secondary players, any cornerback, any safety, because

794
00:47:49,760 --> 00:47:54,920
if we can block up the frontline and the linebackers, we like our chances with Najihara hitting

795
00:47:54,920 --> 00:47:56,960
a cornerback or a safety.

796
00:47:56,960 --> 00:48:01,320
I really worry about that in this lineup or in this, this match, especially with Taylor

797
00:48:01,320 --> 00:48:06,240
Rap, likely out of the, you know, out of the game, of course, poyer and hide are not at

798
00:48:06,240 --> 00:48:11,680
the same level that they once were at meeting, you know, meeting running backs in the hole.

799
00:48:11,680 --> 00:48:17,120
And so really, it's going to be on the second level defenders, Troll Bernard, Bale Inspector,

800
00:48:17,120 --> 00:48:24,000
AJ Klein, likely Dorian Williams, I don't know if I want to see because especially against

801
00:48:24,000 --> 00:48:30,320
the run, he just he is he makes the fastest he is the he will get to the wrong place in

802
00:48:30,320 --> 00:48:33,160
a run fit faster than any player on the field.

803
00:48:33,160 --> 00:48:35,120
Like, that's not helpful, right?

804
00:48:35,120 --> 00:48:40,600
Like we don't need you to be covering a gap that's already covered in point two seconds,

805
00:48:40,600 --> 00:48:43,680
we need you to stay disciplined in your hole.

806
00:48:43,680 --> 00:48:45,840
And Dorian Williams has been very poor at that.

807
00:48:45,840 --> 00:48:49,960
I think the Patriots, you know, showed showed that pretty well when he started against them

808
00:48:49,960 --> 00:48:55,360
a few weeks ago and got benched pretty quickly because he was always out of position.

809
00:48:55,360 --> 00:48:58,480
I wouldn't forget about Taryn Johnson and this run defense either.

810
00:48:58,480 --> 00:49:03,440
He is basically playing like a linebacker for the Buffalo Bills in this new scheme,

811
00:49:03,440 --> 00:49:04,440
for sure.

812
00:49:04,440 --> 00:49:05,440
Second team all pro.

813
00:49:05,440 --> 00:49:06,440
Yes.

814
00:49:06,440 --> 00:49:11,320
My guy deserves it deserves first team all pro in my opinion, but I'm biased.

815
00:49:11,320 --> 00:49:12,320
So there you go.

816
00:49:12,320 --> 00:49:17,920
He's basically he is the, you know, if Mitch Morris is the key to the offense, you know,

817
00:49:17,920 --> 00:49:21,200
then Taryn Johnson is the key to this defensive front in a lot of ways.

818
00:49:21,200 --> 00:49:22,200
He is the pivot.

819
00:49:22,200 --> 00:49:23,600
They're always a nickel.

820
00:49:23,600 --> 00:49:26,880
And he makes it makes them right more often than not.

821
00:49:26,880 --> 00:49:31,560
Yeah, maybe the only CB on the team that I want to see one on one with Najee Harris

822
00:49:31,560 --> 00:49:32,560
in the hole.

823
00:49:32,560 --> 00:49:33,560
Yep, absolutely.

824
00:49:33,560 --> 00:49:41,440
I mean, and this is no shade of Milano, but if if Taryn Johnson were to go down, it changes

825
00:49:41,440 --> 00:49:47,560
the not just the schematic nature of this team, but what each of the individual other

826
00:49:47,560 --> 00:49:52,760
10 players on the squad need to do in order to make up for everything that Johnson does

827
00:49:52,760 --> 00:49:53,760
on the field.

828
00:49:53,760 --> 00:50:01,840
Johnson is a he is a high ceiling, high ceiling guy that raises the floor on other players

829
00:50:01,840 --> 00:50:06,400
because he lets them do what they specialize in because he can do so much so well.

830
00:50:06,400 --> 00:50:10,400
Yeah, that's the guy if we lost, I would really fear for this defense.

831
00:50:10,400 --> 00:50:15,960
But yeah, man, this this Pittsburgh offense, like, it is so hard to make of it because

832
00:50:15,960 --> 00:50:19,040
they're the variants that they have played with has been so crazy.

833
00:50:19,040 --> 00:50:25,520
I need a great job, narratively describing philosophically how Pittsburgh wants to attack

834
00:50:25,520 --> 00:50:30,960
you, but really up until the last couple of games were again, they played soft competition.

835
00:50:30,960 --> 00:50:34,640
So it's really hard to gauge whether or not this team took a step.

836
00:50:34,640 --> 00:50:39,920
This has been a team that has struggled to run the ball in that physical manner all season.

837
00:50:39,920 --> 00:50:43,920
They have faced a lot of heavy boxes because of their core QB issues.

838
00:50:43,920 --> 00:50:48,800
But this is a team JJ that comes into the this wildcard weekend, finishing the season ranked

839
00:50:48,800 --> 00:50:55,400
20th and passing DVOA and 12th and rushing DVOA, their way to DVOA, which takes into

840
00:50:55,400 --> 00:51:01,560
more recent account, their performance as a team only has them overall at 15th this

841
00:51:01,560 --> 00:51:02,560
season.

842
00:51:02,560 --> 00:51:07,680
So over the past few weeks, and this counts the Mason Rudolph boost that they've gotten,

843
00:51:07,680 --> 00:51:12,640
they they like us got rid of their offensive coordinator in Matt Canada, much to the happiness

844
00:51:12,640 --> 00:51:16,240
of Pittsburgh Steelers fans earlier on in the season.

845
00:51:16,240 --> 00:51:19,720
But very similar to us too, I don't think that they have reaped the benefits of that

846
00:51:19,720 --> 00:51:22,760
transition the way that they hoped that they would.

847
00:51:22,760 --> 00:51:27,400
It is a team, similarly to us, that has won a lot of games after that transition, but

848
00:51:27,400 --> 00:51:33,200
statistically speaking and schematically speaking, have not really found a firm foothold.

849
00:51:33,200 --> 00:51:37,280
You don't want this to be a get right game for a Steelers offense that has struggled

850
00:51:37,280 --> 00:51:41,160
to run the ball with the exception of recent weeks.

851
00:51:41,160 --> 00:51:44,520
And you definitely don't want this to be a game where you have had a secondary in the

852
00:51:44,520 --> 00:51:49,320
Buffalo Bills that has done so well at limiting explosive plays that this be the game that

853
00:51:49,320 --> 00:51:51,800
you let a couple up.

854
00:51:51,800 --> 00:51:57,560
I have more faith in the Steelers defense against this bill's offense, JJ, than I do in the

855
00:51:57,560 --> 00:52:00,320
Steelers offense against this bill's defense.

856
00:52:00,320 --> 00:52:05,360
This to me, out of all phases of the game feels like the matchup that is most skewed

857
00:52:05,360 --> 00:52:09,400
in the bill's favor, even despite the entries that we're looking at right now to the linebacker

858
00:52:09,400 --> 00:52:10,400
core.

859
00:52:10,400 --> 00:52:16,000
I think Terrell Bernard is going to know exactly, exactly what the play call is coming from

860
00:52:16,000 --> 00:52:19,560
Pittsburgh because their playbook is so is so limited.

861
00:52:19,560 --> 00:52:21,440
They're not going to use a lot of trickery.

862
00:52:21,440 --> 00:52:23,000
They're not going to use a lot of motion.

863
00:52:23,000 --> 00:52:24,440
They're going to try to run it right at you.

864
00:52:24,440 --> 00:52:28,920
And to me, with the way this secondary plays against the run, actually, I think it's a

865
00:52:28,920 --> 00:52:33,800
benefit to the Buffalo Bills if the Steelers were to play that type of game plan.

866
00:52:33,800 --> 00:52:38,640
Whether being another factor as well, here's the thing that this really all could come

867
00:52:38,640 --> 00:52:41,280
down to for the Pittsburgh Steelers offense.

868
00:52:41,280 --> 00:52:42,840
What's their field position?

869
00:52:42,840 --> 00:52:47,200
Because if Josh is coughing up the ball and they're starting and plus territory against

870
00:52:47,200 --> 00:52:54,760
the bills, that becomes a tall task for any defense to defend against any NFL offense.

871
00:52:54,760 --> 00:52:57,200
To me, it's going to be all about field position.

872
00:52:57,200 --> 00:52:59,160
Where are the Steelers starting?

873
00:52:59,160 --> 00:53:00,880
Where are their drives going to start?

874
00:53:00,880 --> 00:53:06,400
And can the Buffalo Bills offense continue to chew up clock in the way that they have

875
00:53:06,400 --> 00:53:14,080
to help keep the ball and keep the field positionality for the Steelers defense at the absolute minimum?

876
00:53:14,080 --> 00:53:20,120
Well, and what can this Bills defensive front do against the Pittsburgh Steelers kind of

877
00:53:20,120 --> 00:53:21,480
to win that physical battle?

878
00:53:21,480 --> 00:53:24,560
Because the Steelers will actually come out with three tight ends.

879
00:53:24,560 --> 00:53:29,480
And George Pickens is the only wide receiver on the field at times, you know, in like 13

880
00:53:29,480 --> 00:53:31,800
personnel, three tight ends.

881
00:53:31,800 --> 00:53:35,320
With Pat Friarmooth, Darnell Washington, who I loved coming out in the draft, he's like

882
00:53:35,320 --> 00:53:39,800
six, seven, like 270 and runs like a sub four, six, 40s.

883
00:53:39,800 --> 00:53:42,240
It's like a six offensive lineman for them.

884
00:53:42,240 --> 00:53:44,960
I think he's caught like seven passes this season.

885
00:53:44,960 --> 00:53:47,040
Friarmooth is only caught like 30.

886
00:53:47,040 --> 00:53:49,000
They just don't use their tight ends, which is crazy.

887
00:53:49,000 --> 00:53:50,000
They don't.

888
00:53:50,000 --> 00:53:51,000
Yeah, they don't use.

889
00:53:51,000 --> 00:53:52,000
They've got some good ones.

890
00:53:52,000 --> 00:53:55,360
But, you know, I'll say that, you know, looking at the defensive or the offensive line play

891
00:53:55,360 --> 00:54:00,960
for the Steelers, Isaac Somalu or Samal who's come back in, I think he was injured for

892
00:54:00,960 --> 00:54:02,800
a bit, has come back into their left guard.

893
00:54:02,800 --> 00:54:05,400
Is their best offensive lineman?

894
00:54:05,400 --> 00:54:08,800
And then they have Broderick Jones out of Georgia, who I loved in the draft as well as

895
00:54:08,800 --> 00:54:09,800
their right tackle.

896
00:54:09,800 --> 00:54:13,760
They're the best two and then everybody else is sort of your average or above average.

897
00:54:13,760 --> 00:54:19,600
This is not the years in years past where the Pittsburgh offensive line was like basically

898
00:54:19,600 --> 00:54:22,040
the strength of the entire roster.

899
00:54:22,040 --> 00:54:27,360
It is this a different kind of story now with a couple of really strong players and mostly

900
00:54:27,360 --> 00:54:32,240
average, you know, average to above average starters, not a lot of guys that are going

901
00:54:32,240 --> 00:54:33,480
to be vulnerabilities.

902
00:54:33,480 --> 00:54:37,520
I think James Daniels, their right great guards, a little bit of a vulnerability.

903
00:54:37,520 --> 00:54:38,520
Dan Moore, their left tackle.

904
00:54:38,520 --> 00:54:41,000
I think they definitely should be looking for an upgrade there.

905
00:54:41,000 --> 00:54:45,440
And so I'm hopeful that against a rookie right tackle and project Jones, who's had an excellent

906
00:54:45,440 --> 00:54:50,720
year so far, but more importantly against the left tackle Dan Moore, we get to see some

907
00:54:50,720 --> 00:54:54,000
things, you know, with this bill's defensive front.

908
00:54:54,000 --> 00:54:58,560
I'll say this, I think, and I said this today to other Bill's fans, I would like to see

909
00:54:58,560 --> 00:55:01,880
von Miller inactive and I would like to see Linville Joseph up.

910
00:55:01,880 --> 00:55:07,960
I want to see Pooner Ford, Linval Joseph get all the beep on this, this game so that you

911
00:55:07,960 --> 00:55:13,320
can clog the front that front and make make Mason Rudolph beat you.

912
00:55:13,320 --> 00:55:19,080
Because I don't think von Miller offers you anything at all, other than being a liability.

913
00:55:19,080 --> 00:55:23,120
If the Steelers want a key on him, especially if they want to get you know, their center,

914
00:55:23,120 --> 00:55:27,920
Mason Cole and their right guard James Daniels may not be you know, plus starters in a lot

915
00:55:27,920 --> 00:55:30,640
of ways, but they are incredibly athletic.

916
00:55:30,640 --> 00:55:32,600
And they can get on the move.

917
00:55:32,600 --> 00:55:37,560
And one of them on the move against von Miller is an absolute liability with the way that

918
00:55:37,560 --> 00:55:38,560
he's played.

919
00:55:38,560 --> 00:55:39,740
He is not able to set the edge.

920
00:55:39,740 --> 00:55:42,440
He looks poor in run fits.

921
00:55:42,440 --> 00:55:47,520
And so, you know, I'm really hopeful that the bill's defensive front can make them pay

922
00:55:47,520 --> 00:55:50,480
by adding some beef and subtracting von Miller.

923
00:55:50,480 --> 00:55:55,080
But we'll see, I think it's one of those deals where the coaching staff still has this in

924
00:55:55,080 --> 00:55:58,080
their in their mind that they're going to get something from him, that they're going

925
00:55:58,080 --> 00:56:01,460
to see something special or he's going to spark something.

926
00:56:01,460 --> 00:56:05,520
Because all of a sudden it's you know, postseason play farther from his injury.

927
00:56:05,520 --> 00:56:06,520
I just don't see it.

928
00:56:06,520 --> 00:56:12,720
I think that you know, watching him on tape, game over game and all 22, he's woefully

929
00:56:12,720 --> 00:56:13,880
out of position.

930
00:56:13,880 --> 00:56:15,120
He's got no spark.

931
00:56:15,120 --> 00:56:17,000
His getoff is slow.

932
00:56:17,000 --> 00:56:21,640
His counters and his moves are there, but he's got nothing behind them.

933
00:56:21,640 --> 00:56:22,760
Like it's it's weird.

934
00:56:22,760 --> 00:56:24,760
It's like watching.

935
00:56:24,760 --> 00:56:26,840
It's like he's still injured in a lot of ways.

936
00:56:26,840 --> 00:56:32,200
The punch that he has in his hands, the moves he tries to pull off on tackles are easily

937
00:56:32,200 --> 00:56:34,080
avoided by them.

938
00:56:34,080 --> 00:56:35,560
He's not dipping the corner.

939
00:56:35,560 --> 00:56:39,160
He's not stretching the edge on tackles.

940
00:56:39,160 --> 00:56:40,160
It's bad.

941
00:56:40,160 --> 00:56:45,240
It's bad to see after seeing so much amazing von Miller play in previous seasons to watch

942
00:56:45,240 --> 00:56:47,440
kind of how sad it is right now.

943
00:56:47,440 --> 00:56:52,760
And so I don't think that he's going to add anything to this defense if he's up.

944
00:56:52,760 --> 00:56:56,360
Sadly, I agree.

945
00:56:56,360 --> 00:57:00,160
We have said it before we've said again, the ACL is a two year injury and it looks like

946
00:57:00,160 --> 00:57:04,120
Miller is just he's going to need a fuller off season before he's going to be effective

947
00:57:04,120 --> 00:57:05,120
for the squad.

948
00:57:05,120 --> 00:57:06,120
I agree.

949
00:57:06,120 --> 00:57:07,120
I agree.

950
00:57:07,120 --> 00:57:10,160
You don't want all that experience, especially with his playoff performances sitting on the

951
00:57:10,160 --> 00:57:11,160
bench.

952
00:57:11,160 --> 00:57:15,640
But at this point, you've got to take the sample size that's most recently in front of you

953
00:57:15,640 --> 00:57:19,040
and not hope for something that you saw two or three years ago, right?

954
00:57:19,040 --> 00:57:20,040
I agree.

955
00:57:20,040 --> 00:57:22,120
Can't keep fooling yourself on the Hopium pipe.

956
00:57:22,120 --> 00:57:24,840
If you're making personal decisions for the squad.

957
00:57:24,840 --> 00:57:29,600
All right, JJ, speaking of Hopium pipe, you want to get to prediction sure to go wrong?

958
00:57:29,600 --> 00:57:30,600
Let's do it.

959
00:57:30,600 --> 00:57:32,120
All right, let's start with score.

960
00:57:32,120 --> 00:57:35,080
I'm going to go with you because I feel like I always I feel like.

961
00:57:35,080 --> 00:57:40,240
So just so people know, we do not exchange predictions prior to us doing the spot.

962
00:57:40,240 --> 00:57:45,760
And I always feel like JJ, I am stealing your score prediction and you have to adjust on

963
00:57:45,760 --> 00:57:46,760
the fly.

964
00:57:46,760 --> 00:57:50,240
So why don't you go first this time with your score prediction for this game?

965
00:57:50,240 --> 00:57:53,280
So I like the bills.

966
00:57:53,280 --> 00:57:55,120
This one's going to be a more realistic score prediction.

967
00:57:55,120 --> 00:57:58,720
I've always been so freaking positive this season.

968
00:57:58,720 --> 00:58:00,240
I'm like, this is a lesser team.

969
00:58:00,240 --> 00:58:02,680
The bill should really boat race them.

970
00:58:02,680 --> 00:58:05,000
I'm going more realistic this time around.

971
00:58:05,000 --> 00:58:09,280
I tried last week to be more realistic and the bills actually proved better than I thought

972
00:58:09,280 --> 00:58:10,280
they would.

973
00:58:10,280 --> 00:58:14,280
I thought they'd need a fourth quarter comeback and they ended up kind of securely, you know,

974
00:58:14,280 --> 00:58:16,160
defeating the dolphins by the end of the third quarter.

975
00:58:16,160 --> 00:58:17,880
They were in the driver's seat with that game.

976
00:58:17,880 --> 00:58:21,720
So I'll say this, I think that the bills, I think it's a messy game.

977
00:58:21,720 --> 00:58:23,240
I think the weather plays a factor.

978
00:58:23,240 --> 00:58:25,560
I think the bills need to gut it out like we've been talking about.

979
00:58:25,560 --> 00:58:27,400
I think it's a street fight.

980
00:58:27,400 --> 00:58:33,640
And I want to say bills 24 Steelers 21.

981
00:58:33,640 --> 00:58:40,600
So the the over under on this game is, I want to say it's down to like 34 and a half points

982
00:58:40,600 --> 00:58:41,960
or 35 points.

983
00:58:41,960 --> 00:58:43,360
Like it's low.

984
00:58:43,360 --> 00:58:44,760
It's really, really low.

985
00:58:44,760 --> 00:58:48,560
And I think weather is playing a huge factor into that.

986
00:58:48,560 --> 00:58:50,800
I'm going to say 1710.

987
00:58:50,800 --> 00:58:57,320
I think this is a spectacularly ugly game with two teams, one by choice, one by the

988
00:58:57,320 --> 00:59:03,160
choice of their QB and the bills that play ugly and win ugly.

989
00:59:03,160 --> 00:59:06,720
And I think when you throw the mess of the weather that Buffalo is looking to be hit

990
00:59:06,720 --> 00:59:11,360
with, I just think this is going to be one of those games that is tense, that is physical

991
00:59:11,360 --> 00:59:14,800
and ultimately lands in a very low scoring affair.

992
00:59:14,800 --> 00:59:19,800
So 1710 Buffalo, I don't think they cover the spread and I don't think we hit the over.

993
00:59:19,800 --> 00:59:25,240
That's, I mean, I'm so worried.

994
00:59:25,240 --> 00:59:29,280
This is going to be such like, again, have your cardiologist on call for this one, because

995
00:59:29,280 --> 00:59:32,760
it's going to be it's maybe we will be one of those again, where like, Josh Allen does

996
00:59:32,760 --> 00:59:38,440
some things that you're like, Oh my God, many, you know, why is he making such poor choices?

997
00:59:38,440 --> 00:59:42,560
But then he does like the we didn't even talk about it, but the dolphins the third and 13

998
00:59:42,560 --> 00:59:47,400
run, where there were three dolphins defenders within two yards of him and he still had five

999
00:59:47,400 --> 00:59:52,400
yards to go. And he somehow, you know, well, Kater Coho made a business decision that he

1000
00:59:52,400 --> 00:59:56,400
wasn't going to tackle Josh Allen and kind of jumped out of the way. But otherwise, you

1001
00:59:56,400 --> 01:00:02,800
know, the kinds of things that are our Buffalo, Josh Allen can do. I think we see some of

1002
01:00:02,800 --> 01:00:07,600
that. But I think we also see some mistakes. And so yeah, I agree. I think that your your

1003
01:00:07,600 --> 01:00:11,680
score is more likely than mine. I'm again, sort of hopeful that it's a messy game, but

1004
01:00:11,680 --> 01:00:16,120
the bill's offense is able to get some things done. I've got a defensive prop for you. You

1005
01:00:16,120 --> 01:00:24,680
want to hear it? Yeah, let's do it. AJ Epinezza plus point five turnovers. That's a fumble

1006
01:00:24,680 --> 01:00:29,960
from fumble force fumble or interception. His turnover production has been down. Yes,

1007
01:00:29,960 --> 01:00:35,160
I'm going to say I'm going to say under it'd be nice if you got one, but I'm going to say

1008
01:00:35,160 --> 01:00:40,320
under I think the bills will turn over the Steelers at least once in this game. There's

1009
01:00:40,320 --> 01:00:46,040
only so far that turnover look can follow you. And I think the Steelers coughed it up.

1010
01:00:46,040 --> 01:00:51,360
The final game against the Ravens like three or four times on offense. Like they were just

1011
01:00:51,360 --> 01:00:55,640
lucky to recover some of those fumbles, which has been their story all season. I think some

1012
01:00:55,640 --> 01:00:59,160
of that luck runs out though. And I think the bills do turn the Steelers over at least

1013
01:00:59,160 --> 01:01:02,120
once. I just don't know if it's going to be Epinezza or not. I think it's going to be

1014
01:01:02,120 --> 01:01:07,520
Epinezza calling it. Rudolph doesn't throw behind the line of scrimmage though, right?

1015
01:01:07,520 --> 01:01:13,000
Like so it would have to be a strip sack fumble. Yes, it wouldn't be a pick or a tip tip pick.

1016
01:01:13,000 --> 01:01:16,440
Yeah, they throw a lot of screens. That's what I'm thinking of.

1017
01:01:16,440 --> 01:01:23,280
Yeah, that was Kenny Pickett's bag for sure. And that was Mitch Trubisky's bag because

1018
01:01:23,280 --> 01:01:27,520
you can't trust him in a forward passing game. But man, they've been letting Rudolph cook

1019
01:01:27,520 --> 01:01:33,360
downfield dude. I don't know. I don't know. They might deploy it for this game. It's interesting,

1020
01:01:33,360 --> 01:01:38,760
but I'm going to take the under. It's interesting. It's a really good prop. I got one. You're

1021
01:01:38,760 --> 01:01:48,960
ready for this? Yep. Josh Allen, more rushing yards than passing yards. Oh, yes.

1022
01:01:48,960 --> 01:01:56,560
Um, no, I'm under on that. Whatever I have to say that I don't know. You got to pick

1023
01:01:56,560 --> 01:02:01,440
more of the other. Okay, I'm going to say more passing yards. You think so? Yes. You

1024
01:02:01,440 --> 01:02:06,200
think so? Yeah, I think this one's gonna. I think we are not prepared for how ugly this

1025
01:02:06,200 --> 01:02:12,680
game is going to be. And yes, that's an extreme prop for sure. And I mean, he could connect

1026
01:02:12,680 --> 01:02:17,760
on three or four passes to Shakira and digs and be over. I know how absurd it is. Right?

1027
01:02:17,760 --> 01:02:21,840
That's what I'm saying. It is absurd because it's like if he hits one sideline ball that

1028
01:02:21,840 --> 01:02:28,520
can Cade for 48 yards and one throw to digs for 20 and then like some little trash to

1029
01:02:28,520 --> 01:02:32,720
like underneath wide, you know, wide receivers or running backs, he'll he'll eclipse 100

1030
01:02:32,720 --> 01:02:37,120
yards passing. That's easy. It's seeing another 100 yard rushing game out of Josh Allen will

1031
01:02:37,120 --> 01:02:44,120
it would seem special to me. He ran the ball 15 times or something like absurd against

1032
01:02:44,120 --> 01:02:51,000
Miami for like 70 yards, right? So like I know how absurd it is, but it's fascinating to

1033
01:02:51,000 --> 01:02:56,040
think about in the terms of the style of game. The Steelers are going to force them to play.

1034
01:02:56,040 --> 01:03:00,920
You know what this one feels like? It feels like that Ravens game back in the just after

1035
01:03:00,920 --> 01:03:06,840
the COVID season of 2020. So it was January 21. It feels like that. That's what I think

1036
01:03:06,840 --> 01:03:12,440
we're into was bad weather in that game and Buffalo too. It was a really good Ravens defense

1037
01:03:12,440 --> 01:03:17,240
that was able to shut down the passing game, take away Josh's favorite targets. It feels

1038
01:03:17,240 --> 01:03:21,200
like it's going to be that kind of game, right? And they won that game 10 seven on a Taren

1039
01:03:21,200 --> 01:03:22,200
Johnson pick six.

1040
01:03:22,200 --> 01:03:25,320
Taren Johnson pick six. I'd love to see another Taren Johnson pick six. I can tell you that

1041
01:03:25,320 --> 01:03:26,320
much.

1042
01:03:26,320 --> 01:03:27,320
Absolutely.

1043
01:03:27,320 --> 01:03:33,720
I only have one offensive prop. It's Josh Allen interceptions or other turnovers 1.5 over

1044
01:03:33,720 --> 01:03:39,320
over over smashing the over over. I'm going to over. It's over two. He's going to fumble

1045
01:03:39,320 --> 01:03:41,960
or throw a pick at least twice.

1046
01:03:41,960 --> 01:03:50,600
I will say this last game per EPA. So the reason why a lot of nerds in the NFL stats

1047
01:03:50,600 --> 01:03:57,800
game except Josh Allen's turnovers is because they don't often cost the team points as far

1048
01:03:57,800 --> 01:04:00,360
as advanced metrics go.

1049
01:04:00,360 --> 01:04:07,160
The two red zone picks that he threw though per EPA cost the bills a combined projected

1050
01:04:07,160 --> 01:04:13,160
15.7 points in that game. Those two those two picks basically cost the bills the equivalent

1051
01:04:13,160 --> 01:04:19,960
of two touchdowns and two extra points in that game. So Josh for the most part, not the turnovers

1052
01:04:19,960 --> 01:04:25,040
are harmless. We know that they're not. But Josh has been able to statistically overcome

1053
01:04:25,040 --> 01:04:30,000
those turnovers with exceptional high variance explosive play either in the runner pass game

1054
01:04:30,000 --> 01:04:32,080
on the offensive side.

1055
01:04:32,080 --> 01:04:36,280
I hope that that Miami game was not a canary in the coal mine for the type of Josh we're

1056
01:04:36,280 --> 01:04:40,280
going to see in the playoffs this season because that was the first time we're statistically

1057
01:04:40,280 --> 01:04:44,040
speaking Josh really, really cost the steam points on the board.

1058
01:04:44,040 --> 01:04:49,040
Yeah, no, I hope so too. I hope that was an outlier because and I think it was to this

1059
01:04:49,040 --> 01:04:54,720
point to the point in time that that game happened. He was like 30 and zero in terms

1060
01:04:54,720 --> 01:05:01,000
of touchdowns to turnovers in the red zone. And so I feel like that was an exception to

1061
01:05:01,000 --> 01:05:03,840
his usual play.

1062
01:05:03,840 --> 01:05:10,960
And we also know that Josh Allen tends to over correct for things that he's bad at in

1063
01:05:10,960 --> 01:05:17,160
a game. And so I I would find it surprising to see in this game upcoming turnovers in

1064
01:05:17,160 --> 01:05:20,160
the red zone from Josh Allen, I think he's going to have turnovers. I think we both agree

1065
01:05:20,160 --> 01:05:23,200
on that. But I don't think that they're going to have I think it's more the stuff that

1066
01:05:23,200 --> 01:05:28,360
we've seen in the past, you know, some arm punts and stuff between the 20s and not so

1067
01:05:28,360 --> 01:05:33,920
much the in the in the red zone going in turnovers we saw against the dolphins. Do you have a

1068
01:05:33,920 --> 01:05:36,840
defensive or offensive prop to close it out?

1069
01:05:36,840 --> 01:05:41,760
I do it's the turnover one over under over under 1.5 turnovers for the bills defense.

1070
01:05:41,760 --> 01:05:47,640
So you have again, an exceptionally lucky Steelers offense that is number one in DVOA

1071
01:05:47,640 --> 01:05:54,640
and turning the ball over, meaning that they turn the ball over the least amount per DVOA.

1072
01:05:54,640 --> 01:06:00,960
And you have an exceptionally opportunistic turnover turnover heavy bills defensive scheme.

1073
01:06:00,960 --> 01:06:06,600
Someone's got to give in this game. What's it going to be?

1074
01:06:06,600 --> 01:06:13,760
I'm going to take the over. I'm going to say at least two in this particular game. I do

1075
01:06:13,760 --> 01:06:17,680
think the Mason Rudolph, this is going to be the best defense the Mason Rudolph has faced

1076
01:06:17,680 --> 01:06:24,480
all season. What the secondary is doing, as we said with post snap rotations, confusing

1077
01:06:24,480 --> 01:06:29,560
some of the best QBs in the league, it should confuse Mason Rudolph as well. And I think

1078
01:06:29,560 --> 01:06:33,560
there's going to be opportunities, especially for Resoul Douglas is healthy. And you could

1079
01:06:33,560 --> 01:06:36,960
put Benford on the other side of the field against Johnson. I think this is going to

1080
01:06:36,960 --> 01:06:40,000
be there's going to be some opportunity here for sure.

1081
01:06:40,000 --> 01:06:43,200
I'm going to agree with you and apologize. I wasn't able to jump in when you prompted

1082
01:06:43,200 --> 01:06:47,840
me, you know, had a frog in my throat. But yeah, I agree with you completely that this

1083
01:06:47,840 --> 01:06:54,280
is a, you know, this is a team in the bills that they take advantage when offenses make

1084
01:06:54,280 --> 01:07:00,040
mistakes. And I think Mason Rudolph is overdue for mistakes. There's something that we know

1085
01:07:00,040 --> 01:07:05,640
about quarterbacks in the NFL, and it's that they tend to show you who they are, you know,

1086
01:07:05,640 --> 01:07:10,240
over a long enough period of time, he has been on an absolute heater. And a lot of the

1087
01:07:10,240 --> 01:07:16,040
balls he's thrown to pickings have been turnover worthy plays. It's only a matter of time before

1088
01:07:16,040 --> 01:07:20,320
he shows what it what it was when he was a third round pick and the possible successor

1089
01:07:20,320 --> 01:07:24,440
to Ben Roffelsberger, and then ended up two or three years later being third on the death

1090
01:07:24,440 --> 01:07:32,400
chart, like there has to be some sort of course correct back to the average. And so, you know,

1091
01:07:32,400 --> 01:07:37,920
as I said, in kind of our pre show text, this is like, you know, the unstoppable, you know,

1092
01:07:37,920 --> 01:07:42,680
forest meets the immovable object. This is when supremely talented high variability meets

1093
01:07:42,680 --> 01:07:46,720
decently capable remarkably consistent. That's what this game is.

1094
01:07:46,720 --> 01:07:50,560
We're going to see it's going to be so interesting to see it's going to be agonizing to watch

1095
01:07:50,560 --> 01:07:55,400
win or lose just the way the bills have played recently, but it's going to be a fun one.

1096
01:07:55,400 --> 01:08:00,600
Also fun JJ was doing this pod with you. Happy to do another playoff preview with you. It's

1097
01:08:00,600 --> 01:08:04,920
something that we know as longtime bills fans. We don't always get a chance to talk playoffs.

1098
01:08:04,920 --> 01:08:09,800
So we should cherish these beautiful, if yet brief moments as we get to experience them.

1099
01:08:09,800 --> 01:08:13,120
Enjoy every minute of this weekend because we're going to, you know, we're going to see

1100
01:08:13,120 --> 01:08:19,240
the rest of the AFC matchups happen before the bills game Sunday at one at Highmark Stadium.

1101
01:08:19,240 --> 01:08:23,240
But we'll know going into the Steelers game what the next round of the playoffs would

1102
01:08:23,240 --> 01:08:28,160
be with a win. Here's to hoping. All right. Here's to hoping it's Casey, baby. I want

1103
01:08:28,160 --> 01:08:32,160
my homes and bring them for the playoffs. Yes. All right. So for all of you listening

1104
01:08:32,160 --> 01:08:36,160
at home, like, share and subscribe wherever you get your podcast, Google, Apple Spotify.

1105
01:08:36,160 --> 01:09:00,160
And as always, go bills, go bills.

1106
01:09:06,160 --> 01:09:31,160
All right.

1107
01:09:31,160 --> 01:09:56,160
All right.

1108
01:10:01,160 --> 01:10:11,160
All right.