Welcome back to the Buffalo Bread podcast.
We are here in Super Wild Card Weekend.
It is Friday, January 12th, 2024.
Happy New Year everybody.
Dan and I are here to discuss this weekend's matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers coming
towards your park and what could be a snowy sludge fest, as well as a brief look back
on the final AFC championship victory over the Miami Dolphins down in Miami.
Gardens, Florida.
Dan, what's happening with you, my friend?
I am excited to be in the playoffs, but JJ, I'm also filled with a lot of trepidation
as a Bill's fan.
I'm seeing all of the talking media heads downplaying how good this Chargers team could
potentially be in the conditions that are lining up weather wise in Buffalo.
And I'm seeing a lot of bills, bills, bills, bills when I look at predictions for this
weekend.
And historically speaking, that has always been bad when this Buffalo team enters any
type of game situation as a front runner.
The spread on this game is still insane.
I think it opened at eight and a half.
It's now expanded to 10 and a half.
So there's a lot of money going on the bills.
But JJ still.
There's a lot, I think, to be concerned about against Pittsburgh Steelers team, add in some
of the unpredictable elements that the weather could bring.
And I think we're in for a low scoring, heart palpitating, potentially agonizing affair
for our Buffalo bills.
I think I'm with you in that the thing that the trepidation I have to is that the bills
against the spread when they're when they're like more than two score favorites are like
oh and four this year.
You know, what we see and what we talk about is like, okay, this is a Pittsburgh Steelers
team that similarly, you know, around the time that the bills in two weeks after the
bills were six and six, the Steelers were seven and seven and had gone on a three game losing
skid and were staring back at that, you know, the void and the abyss that they were staring
at last season too, which is is this going to be the first year under their head coach
that he's had a below 500 season.
And then they turned it around with of all people and all unlikely heroes, Mason Rudolph.
And so, you know, this is a plucky team that's sort of hitting its strides similar to the
bills, which is a funny thing to say.
And I will get into this kind of with the matchups.
Everyone's like, Oh, the bills are getting hot right now.
The bills have been limping through these games for like four weeks now, including the
Miami game.
They're playing basically one good half a football, which tells you what what we've
been saying all along about the the nature of this roster, they're an elite roster, they're
extremely talented kind of in all phases of the field.
To the tune of being able to replace even massive losses to injury and things like that.
That's true.
But this we have not seen a complete victory over a team since the since probably the Dallas
Cowboys game with this bill squad, they have not played kind of all phases, complimentary
football and really kind of put a team away since that game.
They've really sort of, you know, they've just been winning the close games that they
were losing that ended up getting their OC can Dorsey fired.
Like that's what's happened is they've kind of flipped the field on those close losses
and made them close wins to make it into the playoffs.
And I don't want to downplay the the extreme nature of, you know, how important it is that
they won the division that they're the number two seed in the FC that they are it for all
intents and purposes, a team that no one in the FC wants to play because they found a
way to get it done.
And there's something to be said for winning those close squeakers.
The NFL is a is a league where one score wins and losses is the norm.
That's the standard most most games are decided in the last three or four minutes of every
NFL game.
Blowouts are rare.
And that I mean the NFL loves that the competition level is what makes it so, you know, dramatic
and so much incentive to watch.
But what I'm really worried about same as you is that this bill's team is, you know,
the clear and obvious favorite.
They're clear and obvious favorites every time they play at home.
We saw them at home against the Patriots barely win.
So I'm worried, especially in a wind game, which we've seen the bills play in adverse
conditions three or four times in the past two seasons.
And they've only really come out with one of those wins.
And that was against the dolphins at the end of last year.
The other two losses were against the Bengals in the playoffs in the division around last
year and then against the Patriots in the wind game two years ago.
So you know, adverse conditions late in the year in Orchard Park are not a benefit to
these bills as they're built right now, in my opinion.
This has been the, I think criticism you and I have both had of this roster build.
Regular season wise, this Buffalo Bill team plays excellent at home.
They are seven and one at high mark, seven and two technically in home games because
of that ridiculous London game.
They had to play against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
And in the friendly confines of Buffalo, this team only has one loss on the season.
So this is a team that plays well in Buffalo, but we have seen them outside of the New England
Patriots wild card weekend game from a few years back in minus six.
This is a team in the Sean McDermott era that hasn't really used home field advantage in
the same way in the playoffs.
Conditions change roster build comes more into question.
Now the bills have tried to address a lot of those things with their work on the offensive
line and Joe Brady's improvements to the run game.
And those are things that tend to carry well, no matter what the weather is.
Add to the fact that while the bills might not be getting hot at the right time, this
Buffalo defense seems to be getting hot at the right time.
I would love to say that this is going to be a repeat of the wild card game against the
Patriots from a few years back.
But I really think what is more than likely to happen is the defense, which it has done
so often in this run to the vision title is going to have to carry these bills and yet
another game in rough conditions in Buffalo.
Agreed.
And you know, from the buy, since the loss to Philly and then the buy week, the five
game run that the bills have gone on to win, they haven't let a single opponent score more
than 22 points.
And that I think is what can carry the carry the day for this built this bill's team.
Because even though the offense for the for the Steelers has had a kind of a resurgence
over these last three weeks, they've been playing middling or bad defenses with Mason
Rudolph, specifically middling or bad defenses in terms of coverage.
And then they were playing the backups for the Ravens.
So people look at it and they'll be like, oh my gosh, the Steelers beat the Ravens twice
the season.
No, the Steelers beat the Ravens once and then they built beat the Ravens second and
third stringers once in in kind of Baltimore in a nasty wet rainy game.
That's not to say it's not a quality win or a decent win because I think the Ravens
have a very solid roster and we've seen the bills backups beat the dolphins and other
teams in the past.
And they were kind of riding high and ready to go into the playoffs.
So that's something to be said.
And I agree with you that the defense has to carry the day because they're the most
consistent unit the bills have.
And you know, I think that that's that's something we can look forward to.
I like to see, you know, this defense because Mason Rudolph's passing success has been basically
just to George Pickens number 14 on the outside.
That is something that benefits the bill's defense because they have an they have an
excellent track record of taking away somebody's favorite target.
Look at Tyree Kill, look at CD Lamb over these past, you know, we've recent film of the bills
showing really interesting, you know, cover six or bracket coverage or man plus zone coverage
in order to kind of erase what a team likes to do with the roots and root tree for a preferred
target.
And that's something I think they can do against Mason Rudolph and in this game upcoming.
Do you want to have some quick comments on the the Dolphins game before we kind of flip
and then we'll do kind of keys to victory over the Steelers.
Damn that game felt good.
Didn't it JJ?
Like, I mean, I really wish the offensive effort had been a little bit better.
I'll say that half felt good.
That moment that punt return happens.
The rest of the game felt great.
It really did.
It really, really did.
I mean, and through the first half of the game, Josh, Josh's two red zone turnovers just
befuddling to me, those two throws.
I was having flashbacks to that week one game and I'm like, of course, this would be the
bookend on the Buffalo Bill season where Josh gives up and throws away literally the first
game of the season.
And he does it in the second game of the season as well.
But the bills were able to recover and it was in spite, I would say of the offense.
Miami came out, they had a clear game plan that they were going to shut down the run
game and they were going to make Josh beat them with his arm.
And they did exactly what we said they were going to do in the pregame, which is they
were going to play outside of their typical style, which is Fangio sitting back, rushing
for dropping seven.
They ended up dropping a lot of very well time zero Blitz's.
They were disguising Blitz at the line of scrimmage and really had Josh confused for
a large part of that first half.
And I would argue a good chunk of the third quarter as well.
Josh, as he tends to do, assimilated to those Blitz pressures really well.
And just because of the personnel deficiencies that Miami had, they didn't really have a
schematic counter punch they could put out there.
So you felt the game getting away from Miami at that point on the scoreboard.
JJ, this was a game that was very, very close.
But when you look at every other stat or metric coming outside of this game, the bills dominated
in every phase, almost double the total yards.
And when you include the special teams yardage, they went for over 500 all purpose yards in
this game.
They dominated time of possession 66% of the clock to 30% of the clock for Miami.
They had every single statistical aspect of this game locked down, except the timing aspect
of it.
The timing of those red zone turnovers, the timing of that fumble by Josh at the hands
of the nefarious and evil Christian Vulcans, who we all hate.
The Wiener Greber.
Yes.
Christian Wilkins Wiener Greber.
That guy, all of the jet, the bills won JJ every statistical battle in that game, except
the timing battle.
And as a result of that, they almost lost the battle on the scoreboard as well.
But I don't want what was another inconsistent offensive effort to take away from what was
a phenomenal defensive effort.
And JJ, it's not the pass rush like we thought it would be at the beginning of the season
that is holding it down for this defense.
It is the secondary, what they are doing pre-snap and disguise and then post snap rotation is
some of the most well coached schematic adjustments.
I think I have ever seen as a football fan in my time.
And when you take into account they're doing it without Trey White and Resoul Douglas,
who has been amazing, but a recent addition and how quickly they've assimilated his skill
into that Christian Benford, you're doing this without your number one draft pick from
a couple of years ago in K.R.E.L.M.
And you're doing it with an aging secondary.
Dude, we had Taylor Rapp playing free safety, floating coverage on the final game.
That's not what Taylor Rapp has done in his career.
Taylor Rapp has been more of a hammer in the box against the run game and a guy who you
can deploy and really in short yarded bursts.
The way that they have taken the amalgamation of pieces on this roster and the secondary
JJ and gotten them to buy into and execute the scheme to perfection, it is absolutely
unparalleled as far as coaching quality.
I would put it up against maybe the best coaching job in the league with his team has done with
the secondary.
You get a gold star for working amalgamation, which is the word of the pod.
If you see us in public and say amalgamation will buy you a beer.
And so with all that, I agree with you completely.
And this is something to be said for McDermott and I'll say his defensive job over the past
five weeks of getting this unit ready has been exemplary.
On top of that, this game against Miami was the first time in the McDermott era ever that
I can say I watched a game where I agreed with every single decision he made in a critical
moment.
And that's something to be said.
I think that shows the growth mentality we've been begging for for years of when it's clutch,
when it's tight, he does the hard thing, the riskier thing.
And you know, the bills in their own 30 go for it on fourth down in a game that's only
once they only have a one square advantage, but he trusts his players his offense to get
it.
He trusts his defense to stop them on a short field if they have to.
And I think that that that showed a lot of growth.
That's probably one of the things that gives me the most faith about this squad heading
into the playoffs over, you know, the fact that they've been inconsistent on offense,
the fact that they've been turning it over the in timely ways like you pointed out is
that the defense is playing solid and consistent.
And Sean McDermott has shown that he can be a coach in clutch situations who does the right
thing.
And this is multiple weeks in a row now that he has trusted his offense to get it done.
Last week versus the Patriots, they came out and they did the, you know, try to draw them
off sides play we've seen a billion times.
And when they couldn't draw the Patriots offside on a critical fourth downplay, they went for
it anyway.
And that's something that you haven't seen prior to this season.
And so that tells me a lot about McDermott, probably instead of coaching scared, coaching
confident.
And that's, I think, a big step.
If that's, you know, if that's the story of the season, that can be the story of the
season is that this, this unit galvanized around a huge slump, huge change, change in
transition in terms of who they had to cover up for on losing early in the year with Milano,
Trey White, Dequan Jones for most of the season on defense, and then how they had to adjust
and adapt on offense with the change of coordinators.
And so yeah, I agree that the coaching has been excellent.
And I'm hopeful that it continues.
I hopeful, I'm hopeful that wasn't a kind of one off experience of seeing McDermott
coach and clutch situations aggressively and confidently, as opposed to afraid and nervously.
And I think after 18 weeks of football and 17 games, I think here is my take.
This team is going to win if they're going to make a Super Bowl run exactly in this way.
There is no other switch that they're going to flip where all of a sudden Josh stops making
dumb decisions, or he becomes a more efficient passer at different levels of the field.
There is too much of a sample size from this season, I think, for us to continue to cling
to that notion and cling to that fantasy.
This offense can be very effective, even though it's been less efficient under Joe Brady.
But with this defense playing at this level, this is a Buffalo Bills team, I think that
is going to win exactly like we've been seeing them win since the buy.
Ugly games, questionable decisions made on the offensive side.
The perfect run that we had in that Patriots game a few years back in the wild card round
where we scored on seven consecutive drives.
I don't think that's this team.
I don't think this team has that switch that they can flip.
But I do think this is a team who's happy to roll around in the muck with you and win
in any way that they can.
Ugly, prettier, otherwise.
And I think because of that, because this is a team that can win with a variety of different
phases within the game, I think that makes them an exceptionally dangerous squad for
any other group that they might face.
Agreed.
Agreed completely.
And, you know, I think that's what the playoffs are always a street fight.
And we've seen the Bills show up to the playoffs a few seasons in a row now as front runners
and get punched in the mouth.
And so I think that this is a chance for them to prove they can be the puncher.
And so I'm excited for that, this matchup.
I'm so happy that they shut the Dolphins down.
I mean, some of the talk coming into that last week's matchup from Dolphins Nation,
Fins Nation, was just so, oh my God, it was abysmal.
It was like, yeah, step down, we're the bosses now, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
It's like, dude, you had a three game lead with five to go and you squandered away, puked
all over yourself, and then the effort that the Dolphins put up with with the it was the
Bills trying to help them with three turnovers that kept that close in the scoreboard that
should have been a 42 to 14 or 42 to seven game at the end.
Dan LeBertard, who I love, based out of Miami, amazing sportscaster, podcaster, writer, everything.
He said it perfectly.
That's the game you need from Josh Allen to beat the Buffalo Bills.
He handed it to them on a silver platter, and they couldn't close the deal.
Listen, I don't like to be a hot take guy, but this is going to feel like a pretty hot
take.
Blowing a lead that the Dolphins had with three games to go, being tested in the way
that they were tested, knowing that the narrative around with them was that they couldn't beat
quality opponents.
They couldn't beat winning teams at the point that they faced them.
They had an opportunity to shut down all of those narratives with some gritty, tough play
to close out the season.
They could not get over that hump.
This should go down as one of the biggest choke jobs in sports history, the way they
squandered that divisional lead.
The Bills had it into the buy six and six.
The Dolphins were still riding high after being one of the quote unquote best offenses
that we've ever seen in NFL history.
Push forward to the final five games of the season, the Dolphins averaged under under
JJ, 20 points a game on offense on offense, a team that lit up the Broncos for 70 earlier
in the season could not muster 20.
The TD to INT ratio for two at the end of the season was one to one, passing TDs to
INTs.
This is an offense that you and I said, it looks like the league had figured out and
there were not a lot of wrinkles that McDaniel was throwing other than the run game.
I stated in the off season that Miami's off season was an off season of arrogance where
they didn't address any of their deficiencies and tried to double down on their strengths.
I would say that that arrogance is what cost them the division heading into those last
weeks of the season.
Any other team in the league would have been there wanting to prove the doubters wrong
so bad, the Dolphins really failed to rise to the moment.
As a result of that, to me, this is one of the biggest choke jobs I've ever seen.
They failed in every area they needed to succeed.
And the choke job, I think, started with that Titans.
They squandered.
They got two turnovers, two touchdowns in the last four minutes to go up two touchdowns
over the Titans and the Will Leviss led Titans came back to win that game in the last four
minutes, which was just amazing.
And like started this narrative of the choke job that you mentioned.
I love the stat during the game they showed on the broadcast going in the halftime 14
to seven.
It said the dolphins with the lead at halftime are 11 and 0 this season.
And that's true that it's like we talked about in the preview pod.
They're front runners.
They're there to, you know, they want to get the lead.
They want to keep the lead.
They want to they want to go for it.
They're not like we said, the gritty street fight team that this Bill's unit has become
where they can pull it out when it gets nasty and gross.
And it got nasty and gross midpoint of that game and then the bills like you mentioned
with all the statistical, you know, production on the box score pretty much just took over
the second half to a couldn't do anything.
It looked abysmal when he was trying to throw it a Tyree kill.
Tyree kill is not a hundred percent.
They didn't have Raheem Moser.
They didn't have Jalen Waddle.
And I think that that's part of the story.
One of the, you know, dolphins beat reporter Louise Jacques.
What's the first?
Yeah, Marcel Louis Jacques.
Absolutely. I forgot his first name.
He used to do the ESPN stuff for the bills before Gessenburg.
So the thing that he said a couple of times in media hits this this week that I heard
that I really liked leading up to the dolphins game anyway, was he said that injuries are
not an excuse, but they can be an explanation.
And so I think that that's that's reasonable, right?
Like we as Bill's fans can say that too.
Like when we're playing without Matt Milano, when we're playing without Dequan Jones, we
see the difference that can explain the way that teams can attack you a little bit, but
not an excuse.
You have to rise up.
It's next man up in the NFL and it's, you know, not for long league.
And so seeing the the dolphins come through and just kind of again, puke all over themselves,
squander a two touchdown or a touchdown lead at the half and then not do anything with
three turnovers by Josh Allen is just it's it's delicious.
It's been delicious as Bill's fans this week, I think.
Agreed.
I take issue with with Marcel's take only in one small respect, right?
The injury history of the guys that the dolphins are missing has been very well known.
They had an offseason where they could have added more depth to the wide receiver room
and instead decided to roll with what they had and traded for freaking Chase Claypool
at the trade deadline.
They signed every single injury prone injury prone running back that they possibly could
to this roster and they drafted a dynamic, but also injury prone running back and Devon
H N as well.
Like it's some point.
Yes, injuries are not an excuse, but the lack of depth and the personnel choices that dolphins
made, I think in equal parts led them here because this is also an offense that gets
guys hurt, especially wide receivers.
You know, Jalen Waddle has an injury history, yet he's constantly going across the middle
to find one of these predetermined windows that to wants to throw to and he gets absolutely
lit up across the middle of the field every single game.
The same thing is starting to happen to Tyree kill as well.
If I was a wide receiver, I would not want to play in this offense because it's going
to shorten my career exponentially.
But that's the thing to me.
The lack of self-awareness that the Miami Dolphins approached their roster build and
personnel decisions in is part of the reason why they got to this point.
Yes, you cannot predict who is going to get hurt with a great level of accuracy, but they've
got a lot of injury prone guys on this team with a scheme that invites injury.
Like I have no sympathy for where they landed at the end of the season at all.
Yeah.
No, that's fair.
That's fair.
I'm happy that Tuoh had was able to stay healthy, but I think the league is better when Tuoh
is playing and I very much like him as a ball distributor.
But I think what we've seen now is that this is Tuoh's ceiling without weapons and without
a clean pocket.
He is a lesser quarterback and he's not going to get it done in crunch time unless he has
the talent around him.
Every single...
Which is fine.
That's a way that you can win in the league.
You can point to several Super Bowl winning team, including Joe Flacco's Ravens that made
the whole run and got a championship with a quarterback who's not going to make...
He's not going to put the team on his back, I guess what I'm saying.
Every single team that beat Miami last season and this season did it the same way.
Take away the middle of the field, forced to throw to the numbers because he can't do
it with any level of consistency or efficacy.
If I'm a Dolphins fan, other than some of the cool wrinkles in the run game that McDaniel
has done, I'm asking where's the real innovation in this offense from year to year?
Where's the evolution?
Where's the growth?
Because it's not there.
Well, it's because there's skill limitation caps on Tuoh's game and that's it.
That's the answer.
First read, middle of the field, if those two things are off the table, which is hard
to do.
Most defenses, especially with the eye candy, the motion, I forget which coach in the league
called the motion towards the line of scrimmage motion, cheat motion.
Because it is.
It is.
It's a kind of...
You're not allowed to move towards the line of scrimmage, but Terry Hill would do a lot
of motions where he took one inside step to be moving forward the moment the ball was
snapped.
Oh, yeah.
Yeah.
Just to get that little bit of an edge.
If you're able to defend against that, then they don't have an answer otherwise.
So I think that that's what we'll see and I was trolling.
I wasn't trolling because I didn't say anything, but I was creeping, I guess, on the Dolphin
subreddit after the game.
And there was a lot of unhappy Fins Nation looking for the change at quarterback or coach,
which I think is that's what happens when you have this kind of late season collapse.
Yeah, absolutely.
That is an appropriate reaction for a fan base that probably never deserved the accolades
that were thrown their way this season anyway.
So, JJ, I have had my fill of Dolphins talk.
Yeah, me too.
I was just going to say, let's move on.
Yeah, I want to move on because I could bash that team all day.
I really could.
So at this transition point, I know we've got some additional downloads.
I'd like to give a shout out to my physical therapy guys who will be listening to this
pod and any other new listeners.
The way this pod goes is Dan and I are, we are fans.
We like the sport.
We know the NFL by just kind of studying and looking at it.
Fans of stats guru, I like X's and O's and every week we do a once a week podcast where
we break down the previous game that the bills have played and then we do the preview of kind
of matchups and things we like in the upcoming weekend.
So we've been talking about both as we go, but now we're going to transition fully into
Bill Steelers.
What do you got first, Dan?
What do you want to start?
I want to start this.
God, let's start with the bills offense against the Steelers defense.
So I had mentioned that the bills are are a team that are happy to roll around in the
muck and the mud and win a game in any way that they can.
That is also the preferred method of winning that the Steelers have had to deploy this season.
So JJ, the Steelers are the first team since 1970 to make the playoffs averaging under
18 points a game on offense.
Offensively this season, the Steelers have averaged 17.9 points per game on offense.
Really putrid going through three QBs this season, eventually landing on Mason Rudolph.
But there's a couple of reasons that the Steelers team is in the position that it's in, especially
being in a competitive vision like the AFC North.
One, they play great defense.
And this is a team that plays a lot of man.
This is a team that is excellent at shutting down your first and second option as well.
And this is a team that's going to blitz.
They've got a top five blitz rate in the league coming into the postseason right now.
So this is a team that likes to throw a lot of confusing stuff at opposing QBs and bring
the opposing offense down to their level.
Keep the game close.
This is a team also that hasn't been great running the ball on offense this season, but
they've gotten better at it as they've gone on.
And listen, this is going to sound like shade, but it's not.
The Steelers team has also been JJ incredibly lucky when it comes to turnover worthy plays.
They sit at the league average DVOA for the amount of turn turnover worthy plays that
they have put out there this season.
Fumbles on offense, missed opportunities on defense, but they've benefited from an exceptional
amount of luck.
They have the same amount of offensive fumbles as the Buffalo Bills do this season, 18 and
18.
But the Steelers have recovered those fumbles at the fourth highest clip in the league,
whereas the Bills are 27th of the league at recovering their own fumbles.
That is a pure, it's a pure luck stat.
It depends on where the ball bounces and all that kind of stuff.
So the Steelers have been able to dictate game script with their defense this season
and have also benefited from a little bit of luck.
It's going to be interesting to see how the Bills respond because JJ, especially the Bills
offense, they've been happy to play whatever game script gets thrown at them.
This has not been a team since the buy outside of that Dallas game that is offensively dictated
what the game script is.
It feels like it feels like a matchup that the Steelers are kind of salivating for because
they know they're going to have a willing dance partner to dance around in the muck
in Josh Allen on the other side of the ball.
Oh, yeah, they are.
They're looking at this is like this is this is the script.
So there's a couple of different things that I think benefit the Steelers defense against
this Bills offense.
And one is that the Bills have struggled profoundly against odd front Blitz heavy schemes.
The Steelers blitz sixth most in the league at per, you know, per snap.
And they do have that three, four odd front where they have more linebackers on the field
than they have down linemen.
On top of that, you know, even without TJ Watt playing in this game, the Pittsburgh Steelers
have a combination front and down linemen that I think can really give the Bills problems.
If Keanu Benton was a player coming out that I really liked in the draft, he's had a decent
season.
He's been a word, of course, late in his career, but has been kind of a Bills killer.
And then we saw that in the preseason game, even that the Nick Herbig, a rookie as well,
was like wrecking the Bills in snaps.
And so to see how this offensive line handles that front, you know, Larry Oghanjobi is a
solid player.
Marcus Golden is a good pass rusher who's kind of one of those savvy vets.
They've got a lot going for them, and then not to mention Alex Highsmith, who I think
is it's the kind of thing that Alex Highsmith is to TJ Watt as Phil Hanson was to Bruce
Smith.
He is a he is a motor player who gets sacks and like gets pressure because he never gives
up.
He's technically sound and he works extra hard for it.
And so I think that that's the kind of thing that that has hurt the Bills have seen those
matchups and struggled with them specifically in situations where there is a really strong
interior pressure player like Cam Hayward and a solid, you know, motor player on the
outside like Alex Highsmith.
That's been giving the Bills a lot of problems this season.
And so I'm worried about that.
And I think that again, as you mentioned, this Pittsburgh Steelers defense is the kind
that takes advantage of mistakes and tends to play, you know, sound football on the back
end and not make a lot of mistakes, not a lot of blown coverage with, you know, with
the exceptions here and there, I think that Steelers fans probably would say that they
they've preferred this season when Minka Fitzpatrick was out of the lineup because he is one of
those players in the back end and coverage who takes risks kind of like Russell Douglas,
he reads and tries to jump routes and has been burned by that a few times.
But also he's an all pro level player, like he, you know, you kind of trust him to do
that.
Same as it's sort of like a Josh Allen of the defense, right?
He's gonna he's gonna put some put some tape out there that you're like, oof, that's a
rough choice to make and kind of blew the play.
But then on the counterpoint, he'll make that same choice the next play and pick it off and
kind of and get it get a nice return and those sorts of things.
So, you know, this defense is like you said, they're happy, probably happily dancing into
Orchard Park on, you know, on house money, because there was a point in time where they
never expected to be able to make it into the playoffs again, playing with their third
QB.
And to the point that you made prior about the, you know, not that we're switching over
to the offense for the Steelers yet, they haven't averaged many points per game, but
they've had two of the last three games where they got 30 or more.
So I don't think we can count on, you know, this being a super low scoring game, especially
if they can establish the run, but flipping back to the defense.
This is, you know, the kind of thing where the bills need to have their front solid and
they need to give Osiris Torrance some help.
And I say that because the last few weeks he has struggled quite a lot in getting off
of twists and stunts in the middle of the defense.
And it, you know, I think that the rookie wall sometimes can be sort of overblown, but I
think it's real this time.
He's had 1300 snaps or so this season, and the most he ever had in a single season in
college was about 820.
And so I think that it's real that he might be, you know, running to the end of his end
of his limit with this season.
He's at the rookie wall.
Yeah.
He's at the wall.
I love the season he's put together and I'm really excited to see a full off season where
he's not doing draft prep and, you know, preparing to run a 40 yard dash and all that nonsense.
And instead is working to, you know, increase his stamina for the season, improve his game
and prove his understanding of the playbook, no sorts of things.
And not be, you know, wondering what team he's going to play for at all, but rather
know exactly what he needs to do for this offense and this position in this situation.
So I'm expecting the bill's offense to roll out some 12 personnel with Knox and Kinkade
on the field at the same time.
I would love to see some 22 personnel, especially if the weather is bad, because the bills do
have, you know, they have a decent fullback.
And you know, I think that they have some bigger backs.
I'm expecting playoff Lenny to be elevated.
If Ty Johnson is out for this game with that injury he suffered, I expect that maybe Leonard
Fornette and Latavius Murray are up with James Cook.
And I would, I would like to see some heavy set with James Cook run in the ball.
The past three or four weeks, he's been bad at yards after contact, which is something
that we both were really impressed by early in the season for Cook, where he'd take some
contact and squirt forward for three or four yards extra.
He's been kind of going down on the spot for the last four or five weeks.
And I wonder how much that is him, how much that is like kind of changes in the blocking,
how much of that is like, you know, him not getting as much room to work in the rushing
game.
So, or and how much of that is the defense is keying on him, because I think that what
we'll see from the Steelers defense, they have a suspect linebacking core, I think they're
on their third and fourth kind of, you know, similar to the bills in this game, you know,
they're in backup mode with linebackers.
But that defensive front, again, similar to the bills is like the strength of their defense.
So we're going to see what happens on offense and how that defense from the Steelers keys
on James Cook, because the last few weeks, a lot of defensive coordinators have been
really focused on shutting him down.
And I think that that's been effective.
And so how are the bills going to make them pay if they load the box?
And Josh Allen's able to cut through some of this wind and throw the outside.
Yeah, you know, the Steelers unit JJ is the number six by DVOA ranked passing defense
in the league.
And they are they are incredible.
They are no worse than seven when taking away an opposing teams first two outside options,
wide receiver one and wide receiver two, and taking away an opposing teams tight end,
which despite those linebacker injuries, I think is a testament to the role that make
a fix Patrick plays in their past game as well.
I would look in a very, very excited way to see what's going to happen if it's Patrick
finds himself one on one with Dalton Kincaid, if with the bills do decide to roll out some
some 22.
All that being said, though, there are a couple of areas where you can attack this Steelers
defense.
And I think the first area is out of the slot.
So the Pittsburgh Steelers this season are 17th, according to DVOA when defending against
the slot.
Now, we're just got out, we're not going to have Gabe Davis for this game.
So it's going to be interesting to see what happens on the outside.
I think the Buffalo Bills are going to play a lot more Trent Scherfield to also tidy
up things in the end blocking for James Cook on the outside as well.
I think we're going to see a little bit more outside zone with Cook as a result of that.
But I think that's going to free up Khalil Shakir to hopefully have an amazing day coming
out of the slot.
He had a couple of breakout plays in that Dolphins game and he is the only Buffalo
Bills primary wide receiver.
So one through three on the depth chart that doesn't have a drop this season.
JJ, he's been a reliable target.
His routes are always on time.
And I think even with the weather playing out the way it's going to be in Buffalo, Shakir
could be a big key against this Pittsburgh Steelers defense in opening some things up
for Josh Allen.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense also struggles JJ in defending opposing teams running backs
out when they come out allowing scrimmage to catch passes out of the backfield.
That speaks exactly to your point about the struggles this linebacking chorus had with
injury and with performance this season.
And if you're going to dedicate or if you're going to shadow Fitzpatrick over Stefan Diggs
or if you're going to give him the assignment of Dalton Kincaid, James Cook, while he may
struggle to run the ball against heavy boxes could potentially eat and catching areas out
of the backfield as well.
To me, JJ, the recipe for success here is simple.
A heavy dose of James Cook out of the backfield and a heavy dose of Khalil Shakir who has
been your most reliable.
And I say that with no hesitance, you are most reliable wide receiving target this season
game in and gave out.
If those two guys are featured in this game plan, it sticks with the Joe Brady strategy
that he has deployed for so many games, which is to relentlessly attack the one thing he
knows you can't stop.
And the Steelers do not have the personnel to deploy to stop guys coming out of the slot
and they struggle with running backs coming out to catch passes out of the backfield.
If I'm Brady, I am scheming for Shakir, I'm scheming for Cook, and I'm scheming for playoff
Lenny who is an excellent catcher of the football out of the backfield.
And I'm going to let Pittsburgh do what I want to do because I know I can beat them that
way.
Yeah, agreed.
And I think that too, that's going to play, you know, especially if the weather's bad,
Josh Allen has enough of an arm to throw within 10 yards, within 15 yards of the line of scrimmage,
even in strong winds to some of those targets if they need to get it out quick because of
the pass rush.
And in the run game, you know, Alex Highsmith and Nick Herbig on the outside, they are not
huge, you know, they're not the same size as like Greg Rousseau, or another kind of large,
they're not TJ Watt, they're not like a specimen who's going to be able to set the
edge and hold it.
If you get them on duo blocks, if you use your tight ends, if you use kind of a lead
block or those sorts of things.
So I think there's some opportunities here in the, in the run game, especially with the
tackle wrap, the dark concept, the duo, some of the stuff that the bills have shown that
they can, they can pull off in the run game.
If they're able to establish the physical tone and double it, you know, Cam Hayward
and double and give Osiris Torrance some help at the point of attack, I think that they
can, you know, Spencer Brown and Osiris Torrance can make some, some hay in the running game,
they can run off that right side, basically run directly at, you know, some of these lighter,
more technician based pass rushers for the Pittsburgh Steelers.
And then of course, come off of that with play action, because Josh Allen, though he's
had an inconsistent season, and you and I were talking kind of pre-pod about how he's regressed
in a lot of ways.
And some of the things that we've expected him to do better and be better at, he has
actually taken pretty major steps back.
He's his passing chart.
He's basically only throwing really accurate balls to the right side of the field.
He's missing and losing some routes to the left side of the field.
His deep ball accuracy is less than half that of what it was last season.
There's a lot of areas that he's struggled in, but you know, short and easy completions,
quick in the face of pressure and play action is the secret here.
Establish the run and use play action, because that is the one area of his game that he has
consistently been able to deliver on and has an outstanding TD to interception ratio, has
an outstanding completion percentage, has an outstanding passer rating when using play
action Dan.
So I'm expecting and hoping that we see Joe Brady work some play action in that they can
neutralize some of the pass rush with the run and that they can, you know, make some
of those easy button short completions.
This is playoff football.
I think that what we see from Josh Allen this week on offense is going to help set the tone
for what we expect this team to do in the entire playoffs if they're able to make it
past the Steelers this weekend.
If we see him, you know, using, you know, playing within the scope of the offense, using some
of those route concepts and not turning down the easy passes, easy completions.
I think this is a team that's primed for a deep run as long as the defense stays consistent.
But if we see kind of what we saw in the first half against the Dolphins, where he's, you
know, making some kind of boneheaded plays, he's turning down the easy two or three yard
completion on fourth and one, and instead throwing an interception, that this may be
a brief outing into the playoffs for the bills.
Yeah, I agree.
And I'm glad you brought up because I think this is a tough topic for people to discuss.
Some of the regression, and I think it's fair to call our regression that we've seen in
Josh's game this season.
Last season, JJ, he was an, he was an average to above average passer to every level of
the field and he dominated downfield.
It was one of his best deep ball, deep ball passing seasons that he's ever had this year.
And I don't know what it is, but teams have really locked down the middle of the field
in the left side of the field and they're forcing Josh to his right.
And he's been effective, but they're basically forcing him to play with one arm tied behind
his back.
You and I talked preseason about the need to exploit the middle of the field to help
Josh's game grow.
And he hasn't done that, but credit to the Spills coaching staff, because they have really
developed him into one of the best play action passers in the league.
So I agree with you.
I think the recipe for success here is Shakir, it's Cook, and it's using some of this play
action that they've so intentionally developed into Josh's game.
And listen, keep it simple for him, right?
Like this Buffalo Bills team is fourth when it comes to time of possession in 28th when
it comes to pace of play this year.
Those are things JJ that you and I have lamented at times because we've want to see the Bills
run the a-gun offense out there where Josh is just in the muddle huddle or no huddle
and calling his shots and reacting as he goes because he is a better passer when it comes
to that.
And that is not something I think that's going to benefit the Bills with the weather or against
the opponent they're facing this particular game.
So I think everything that the Bills have structured in Allen's game for better or worse
can absolutely be optimized and it's going to need to be optimized if they're going to
get away from what I think is going to be a surprisingly tough opponent for them.
So do you want to switch over to the other side of the ball JJ?
Yeah, yeah, Bills D versus Mason Rudolph.
Sure, I'll give one last thought on the Steelers defense to the Bills offense.
I think that, you know, my final thought is like, of course, we've talked about all the
different keys to this Bills offense taking the day.
The Steelers defense is probably the one defense in the league that I've watched on film that
populates to the football better or at the same rate as the Bills offense.
The things that we love about the Bills offense or the Bills defense, sorry, about, you know,
more hats, more blue jerseys in the area, more guys at the point of attack, you know,
taking down a runner, stripping the ball out.
Christian Benford's, you know, strip play with against the Patriots was purely just
that he was there with nothing else to do other than try for the punch out because there
was so many Bills defenders in the area to secure the tackle.
I think that this Steelers defense does that as well.
So, you know, ball security is going to be huge for somebody like James Cook, who has
shown some fumbling issues, some turnover issues for Josh Allen, for that matter, who likes
to play it fast and loose when he runs the ball, expect him to be a runner at different
times in this game.
And you know, for any other player, you know, wide receiver, you know, skill position player
tight end, got to secure the ball because they populate to the football.
But yeah, let's let's flip over to the Bills offense or the Bills defense sorry against
this Mason Rudolph led Steelers offense.
We shouldn't scoff because as you mentioned, this has not been a good offense points per
game wise, but he did have granted against some soft defenses, a couple of 30 point efforts.
He built almost exclusively on forcing the ball downfield.
It's like Mason Rudolph got his second shot at this.
He's like, F it, already screwed it up the last time I'm playing with house money.
He's been bombing, with the ball, the George Pickens, no matter the coverage.
And George Pickens has made him right several times.
I think George Pickens throughout the season has gotten some grief.
I mean, even made public comments that he's not going to block on a run play because he
doesn't want to get injured like Tank Dell or, you know, how does Pittsburgh keep getting
these wide receivers?
How do they keep drafting these guys that are like this?
It's like, what's the yeah, what's the arc?
Because it's like, yeah, leave me on bell and Tony and Tony O Brown like, Tony O Brown,
my God, we're gonna and then, you know, Chase Claypool.
How do they keep doing this?
Who's the guy who was dancing on the logos?
Oh, Juju Smith Schuster, Juju Smith Schuster.
Yeah, like, it's like, in order to play at a skill possession is position in Pittsburgh,
you either have to be, you know, like, I think Najee Harris is more in the tone of like the
Jerome Bettis type, you know, the like workman like, a great solid, you know, like, but I
but it's so funny for so many other skill position players over the past decade or whatever,
it's like this guy's like an absolute nightmare in the locker room in terms of personality
issues and conflicts.
And so here we have George, you know, George Pickens saying he's not going to block for
Jalen Warren, and then, you know, and getting roasted for it.
But in terms of catching the ball, he has done some amazing things for Mason Rudolph.
He basically said, you know, I'll make you right no matter how bad or weird the throw
is.
And it's paid off.
That's how they've gotten some deep shot touchdowns.
Mason Rudolph, like you said, is just going to let it rip.
And we'll see with the wind with the bills, better than the Steelers have faced passing
defense and better than the Steelers has faced past rush.
Because I think that you what you saw with the Steelers last few weeks is they've faced,
you know, middling to poor defenses, specifically in past coverage and in past rush.
And that's two areas that the bills have been exempt, exemptional at this these past five
weeks.
And so we'll see, you know, what shows up here for the bills defense.
And I think some of the injuries are going to, you know, play a factor.
It looks like, you know, we probably we won't see Taylor wrap, we know that much.
We may not see Russell Douglas.
We may not see Tarell Dodson, which means it's going to be, you know, ripe for possible
bail inspector game who I thought had some really nice snaps against the dolphins fitting
the run when Tarell Dodson went out.
And then AJ Klein signed to the practice squad this week, possible call up for this game
as well.
And I'll say this, for this bills defense, I would be worried if they if somebody was
like, ooh, bail inspector and AJ Klein might be in in three, you know, three linebacker
sets this week in the playoffs, I'd be worried about almost any team other than the Pittsburgh
Steelers for the Pittsburgh Steelers, that might be actually a boon.
Because I think AJ Klein and bail inspector both do something that, you know, other linebackers
on the team don't do.
And that's fit the run when it's coming straight at them extremely well.
And that is exactly what the Steelers do.
They're not a wide zone.
You know, they're not a, you know, sideline to sideline motion team like the dolphins
are with the way that they like to run the ball.
The Steelers basically say we have our guys, you have our your guys, we're coming straight
at you try to stop us.
We got Najihara's who's like six to 240 pounds.
And he's a hammer.
And their whole their whole offense is predicated in the run game on trying to get Najihara's
one on one with any of your defensive secondary players, any cornerback, any safety, because
if we can block up the frontline and the linebackers, we like our chances with Najihara hitting
a cornerback or a safety.
I really worry about that in this lineup or in this, this match, especially with Taylor
Rap, likely out of the, you know, out of the game, of course, poyer and hide are not at
the same level that they once were at meeting, you know, meeting running backs in the hole.
And so really, it's going to be on the second level defenders, Troll Bernard, Bale Inspector,
AJ Klein, likely Dorian Williams, I don't know if I want to see because especially against
the run, he just he is he makes the fastest he is the he will get to the wrong place in
a run fit faster than any player on the field.
Like, that's not helpful, right?
Like we don't need you to be covering a gap that's already covered in point two seconds,
we need you to stay disciplined in your hole.
And Dorian Williams has been very poor at that.
I think the Patriots, you know, showed showed that pretty well when he started against them
a few weeks ago and got benched pretty quickly because he was always out of position.
I wouldn't forget about Taryn Johnson and this run defense either.
He is basically playing like a linebacker for the Buffalo Bills in this new scheme,
for sure.
Second team all pro.
Yes.
My guy deserves it deserves first team all pro in my opinion, but I'm biased.
So there you go.
He's basically he is the, you know, if Mitch Morris is the key to the offense, you know,
then Taryn Johnson is the key to this defensive front in a lot of ways.
He is the pivot.
They're always a nickel.
And he makes it makes them right more often than not.
Yeah, maybe the only CB on the team that I want to see one on one with Najee Harris
in the hole.
Yep, absolutely.
I mean, and this is no shade of Milano, but if if Taryn Johnson were to go down, it changes
the not just the schematic nature of this team, but what each of the individual other
10 players on the squad need to do in order to make up for everything that Johnson does
on the field.
Johnson is a he is a high ceiling, high ceiling guy that raises the floor on other players
because he lets them do what they specialize in because he can do so much so well.
Yeah, that's the guy if we lost, I would really fear for this defense.
But yeah, man, this this Pittsburgh offense, like, it is so hard to make of it because
they're the variants that they have played with has been so crazy.
I need a great job, narratively describing philosophically how Pittsburgh wants to attack
you, but really up until the last couple of games were again, they played soft competition.
So it's really hard to gauge whether or not this team took a step.
This has been a team that has struggled to run the ball in that physical manner all season.
They have faced a lot of heavy boxes because of their core QB issues.
But this is a team JJ that comes into the this wildcard weekend, finishing the season ranked
20th and passing DVOA and 12th and rushing DVOA, their way to DVOA, which takes into
more recent account, their performance as a team only has them overall at 15th this
season.
So over the past few weeks, and this counts the Mason Rudolph boost that they've gotten,
they they like us got rid of their offensive coordinator in Matt Canada, much to the happiness
of Pittsburgh Steelers fans earlier on in the season.
But very similar to us too, I don't think that they have reaped the benefits of that
transition the way that they hoped that they would.
It is a team, similarly to us, that has won a lot of games after that transition, but
statistically speaking and schematically speaking, have not really found a firm foothold.
You don't want this to be a get right game for a Steelers offense that has struggled
to run the ball with the exception of recent weeks.
And you definitely don't want this to be a game where you have had a secondary in the
Buffalo Bills that has done so well at limiting explosive plays that this be the game that
you let a couple up.
I have more faith in the Steelers defense against this bill's offense, JJ, than I do in the
Steelers offense against this bill's defense.
This to me, out of all phases of the game feels like the matchup that is most skewed
in the bill's favor, even despite the entries that we're looking at right now to the linebacker
core.
I think Terrell Bernard is going to know exactly, exactly what the play call is coming from
Pittsburgh because their playbook is so is so limited.
They're not going to use a lot of trickery.
They're not going to use a lot of motion.
They're going to try to run it right at you.
And to me, with the way this secondary plays against the run, actually, I think it's a
benefit to the Buffalo Bills if the Steelers were to play that type of game plan.
Whether being another factor as well, here's the thing that this really all could come
down to for the Pittsburgh Steelers offense.
What's their field position?
Because if Josh is coughing up the ball and they're starting and plus territory against
the bills, that becomes a tall task for any defense to defend against any NFL offense.
To me, it's going to be all about field position.
Where are the Steelers starting?
Where are their drives going to start?
And can the Buffalo Bills offense continue to chew up clock in the way that they have
to help keep the ball and keep the field positionality for the Steelers defense at the absolute minimum?
Well, and what can this Bills defensive front do against the Pittsburgh Steelers kind of
to win that physical battle?
Because the Steelers will actually come out with three tight ends.
And George Pickens is the only wide receiver on the field at times, you know, in like 13
personnel, three tight ends.
With Pat Friarmooth, Darnell Washington, who I loved coming out in the draft, he's like
six, seven, like 270 and runs like a sub four, six, 40s.
It's like a six offensive lineman for them.
I think he's caught like seven passes this season.
Friarmooth is only caught like 30.
They just don't use their tight ends, which is crazy.
They don't.
Yeah, they don't use.
They've got some good ones.
But, you know, I'll say that, you know, looking at the defensive or the offensive line play
for the Steelers, Isaac Somalu or Samal who's come back in, I think he was injured for
a bit, has come back into their left guard.
Is their best offensive lineman?
And then they have Broderick Jones out of Georgia, who I loved in the draft as well as
their right tackle.
They're the best two and then everybody else is sort of your average or above average.
This is not the years in years past where the Pittsburgh offensive line was like basically
the strength of the entire roster.
It is this a different kind of story now with a couple of really strong players and mostly
average, you know, average to above average starters, not a lot of guys that are going
to be vulnerabilities.
I think James Daniels, their right great guards, a little bit of a vulnerability.
Dan Moore, their left tackle.
I think they definitely should be looking for an upgrade there.
And so I'm hopeful that against a rookie right tackle and project Jones, who's had an excellent
year so far, but more importantly against the left tackle Dan Moore, we get to see some
things, you know, with this bill's defensive front.
I'll say this, I think, and I said this today to other Bill's fans, I would like to see
von Miller inactive and I would like to see Linville Joseph up.
I want to see Pooner Ford, Linval Joseph get all the beep on this, this game so that you
can clog the front that front and make make Mason Rudolph beat you.
Because I don't think von Miller offers you anything at all, other than being a liability.
If the Steelers want a key on him, especially if they want to get you know, their center,
Mason Cole and their right guard James Daniels may not be you know, plus starters in a lot
of ways, but they are incredibly athletic.
And they can get on the move.
And one of them on the move against von Miller is an absolute liability with the way that
he's played.
He is not able to set the edge.
He looks poor in run fits.
And so, you know, I'm really hopeful that the bill's defensive front can make them pay
by adding some beef and subtracting von Miller.
But we'll see, I think it's one of those deals where the coaching staff still has this in
their in their mind that they're going to get something from him, that they're going
to see something special or he's going to spark something.
Because all of a sudden it's you know, postseason play farther from his injury.
I just don't see it.
I think that you know, watching him on tape, game over game and all 22, he's woefully
out of position.
He's got no spark.
His getoff is slow.
His counters and his moves are there, but he's got nothing behind them.
Like it's it's weird.
It's like watching.
It's like he's still injured in a lot of ways.
The punch that he has in his hands, the moves he tries to pull off on tackles are easily
avoided by them.
He's not dipping the corner.
He's not stretching the edge on tackles.
It's bad.
It's bad to see after seeing so much amazing von Miller play in previous seasons to watch
kind of how sad it is right now.
And so I don't think that he's going to add anything to this defense if he's up.
Sadly, I agree.
We have said it before we've said again, the ACL is a two year injury and it looks like
Miller is just he's going to need a fuller off season before he's going to be effective
for the squad.
I agree.
You don't want all that experience, especially with his playoff performances sitting on the
bench.
But at this point, you've got to take the sample size that's most recently in front of you
and not hope for something that you saw two or three years ago, right?
I agree.
Can't keep fooling yourself on the Hopium pipe.
If you're making personal decisions for the squad.
All right, JJ, speaking of Hopium pipe, you want to get to prediction sure to go wrong?
Let's do it.
All right, let's start with score.
I'm going to go with you because I feel like I always I feel like.
So just so people know, we do not exchange predictions prior to us doing the spot.
And I always feel like JJ, I am stealing your score prediction and you have to adjust on
the fly.
So why don't you go first this time with your score prediction for this game?
So I like the bills.
This one's going to be a more realistic score prediction.
I've always been so freaking positive this season.
I'm like, this is a lesser team.
The bill should really boat race them.
I'm going more realistic this time around.
I tried last week to be more realistic and the bills actually proved better than I thought
they would.
I thought they'd need a fourth quarter comeback and they ended up kind of securely, you know,
defeating the dolphins by the end of the third quarter.
They were in the driver's seat with that game.
So I'll say this, I think that the bills, I think it's a messy game.
I think the weather plays a factor.
I think the bills need to gut it out like we've been talking about.
I think it's a street fight.
And I want to say bills 24 Steelers 21.
So the the over under on this game is, I want to say it's down to like 34 and a half points
or 35 points.
Like it's low.
It's really, really low.
And I think weather is playing a huge factor into that.
I'm going to say 1710.
I think this is a spectacularly ugly game with two teams, one by choice, one by the
choice of their QB and the bills that play ugly and win ugly.
And I think when you throw the mess of the weather that Buffalo is looking to be hit
with, I just think this is going to be one of those games that is tense, that is physical
and ultimately lands in a very low scoring affair.
So 1710 Buffalo, I don't think they cover the spread and I don't think we hit the over.
That's, I mean, I'm so worried.
This is going to be such like, again, have your cardiologist on call for this one, because
it's going to be it's maybe we will be one of those again, where like, Josh Allen does
some things that you're like, Oh my God, many, you know, why is he making such poor choices?
But then he does like the we didn't even talk about it, but the dolphins the third and 13
run, where there were three dolphins defenders within two yards of him and he still had five
yards to go. And he somehow, you know, well, Kater Coho made a business decision that he
wasn't going to tackle Josh Allen and kind of jumped out of the way. But otherwise, you
know, the kinds of things that are our Buffalo, Josh Allen can do. I think we see some of
that. But I think we also see some mistakes. And so yeah, I agree. I think that your your
score is more likely than mine. I'm again, sort of hopeful that it's a messy game, but
the bill's offense is able to get some things done. I've got a defensive prop for you. You
want to hear it? Yeah, let's do it. AJ Epinezza plus point five turnovers. That's a fumble
from fumble force fumble or interception. His turnover production has been down. Yes,
I'm going to say I'm going to say under it'd be nice if you got one, but I'm going to say
under I think the bills will turn over the Steelers at least once in this game. There's
only so far that turnover look can follow you. And I think the Steelers coughed it up.
The final game against the Ravens like three or four times on offense. Like they were just
lucky to recover some of those fumbles, which has been their story all season. I think some
of that luck runs out though. And I think the bills do turn the Steelers over at least
once. I just don't know if it's going to be Epinezza or not. I think it's going to be
Epinezza calling it. Rudolph doesn't throw behind the line of scrimmage though, right?
Like so it would have to be a strip sack fumble. Yes, it wouldn't be a pick or a tip tip pick.
Yeah, they throw a lot of screens. That's what I'm thinking of.
Yeah, that was Kenny Pickett's bag for sure. And that was Mitch Trubisky's bag because
you can't trust him in a forward passing game. But man, they've been letting Rudolph cook
downfield dude. I don't know. I don't know. They might deploy it for this game. It's interesting,
but I'm going to take the under. It's interesting. It's a really good prop. I got one. You're
ready for this? Yep. Josh Allen, more rushing yards than passing yards. Oh, yes.
Um, no, I'm under on that. Whatever I have to say that I don't know. You got to pick
more of the other. Okay, I'm going to say more passing yards. You think so? Yes. You
think so? Yeah, I think this one's gonna. I think we are not prepared for how ugly this
game is going to be. And yes, that's an extreme prop for sure. And I mean, he could connect
on three or four passes to Shakira and digs and be over. I know how absurd it is. Right?
That's what I'm saying. It is absurd because it's like if he hits one sideline ball that
can Cade for 48 yards and one throw to digs for 20 and then like some little trash to
like underneath wide, you know, wide receivers or running backs, he'll he'll eclipse 100
yards passing. That's easy. It's seeing another 100 yard rushing game out of Josh Allen will
it would seem special to me. He ran the ball 15 times or something like absurd against
Miami for like 70 yards, right? So like I know how absurd it is, but it's fascinating to
think about in the terms of the style of game. The Steelers are going to force them to play.
You know what this one feels like? It feels like that Ravens game back in the just after
the COVID season of 2020. So it was January 21. It feels like that. That's what I think
we're into was bad weather in that game and Buffalo too. It was a really good Ravens defense
that was able to shut down the passing game, take away Josh's favorite targets. It feels
like it's going to be that kind of game, right? And they won that game 10 seven on a Taren
Johnson pick six.
Taren Johnson pick six. I'd love to see another Taren Johnson pick six. I can tell you that
much.
Absolutely.
I only have one offensive prop. It's Josh Allen interceptions or other turnovers 1.5 over
over over smashing the over over. I'm going to over. It's over two. He's going to fumble
or throw a pick at least twice.
I will say this last game per EPA. So the reason why a lot of nerds in the NFL stats
game except Josh Allen's turnovers is because they don't often cost the team points as far
as advanced metrics go.
The two red zone picks that he threw though per EPA cost the bills a combined projected
15.7 points in that game. Those two those two picks basically cost the bills the equivalent
of two touchdowns and two extra points in that game. So Josh for the most part, not the turnovers
are harmless. We know that they're not. But Josh has been able to statistically overcome
those turnovers with exceptional high variance explosive play either in the runner pass game
on the offensive side.
I hope that that Miami game was not a canary in the coal mine for the type of Josh we're
going to see in the playoffs this season because that was the first time we're statistically
speaking Josh really, really cost the steam points on the board.
Yeah, no, I hope so too. I hope that was an outlier because and I think it was to this
point to the point in time that that game happened. He was like 30 and zero in terms
of touchdowns to turnovers in the red zone. And so I feel like that was an exception to
his usual play.
And we also know that Josh Allen tends to over correct for things that he's bad at in
a game. And so I I would find it surprising to see in this game upcoming turnovers in
the red zone from Josh Allen, I think he's going to have turnovers. I think we both agree
on that. But I don't think that they're going to have I think it's more the stuff that
we've seen in the past, you know, some arm punts and stuff between the 20s and not so
much the in the in the red zone going in turnovers we saw against the dolphins. Do you have a
defensive or offensive prop to close it out?
I do it's the turnover one over under over under 1.5 turnovers for the bills defense.
So you have again, an exceptionally lucky Steelers offense that is number one in DVOA
and turning the ball over, meaning that they turn the ball over the least amount per DVOA.
And you have an exceptionally opportunistic turnover turnover heavy bills defensive scheme.
Someone's got to give in this game. What's it going to be?
I'm going to take the over. I'm going to say at least two in this particular game. I do
think the Mason Rudolph, this is going to be the best defense the Mason Rudolph has faced
all season. What the secondary is doing, as we said with post snap rotations, confusing
some of the best QBs in the league, it should confuse Mason Rudolph as well. And I think
there's going to be opportunities, especially for Resoul Douglas is healthy. And you could
put Benford on the other side of the field against Johnson. I think this is going to
be there's going to be some opportunity here for sure.
I'm going to agree with you and apologize. I wasn't able to jump in when you prompted
me, you know, had a frog in my throat. But yeah, I agree with you completely that this
is a, you know, this is a team in the bills that they take advantage when offenses make
mistakes. And I think Mason Rudolph is overdue for mistakes. There's something that we know
about quarterbacks in the NFL, and it's that they tend to show you who they are, you know,
over a long enough period of time, he has been on an absolute heater. And a lot of the
balls he's thrown to pickings have been turnover worthy plays. It's only a matter of time before
he shows what it what it was when he was a third round pick and the possible successor
to Ben Roffelsberger, and then ended up two or three years later being third on the death
chart, like there has to be some sort of course correct back to the average. And so, you know,
as I said, in kind of our pre show text, this is like, you know, the unstoppable, you know,
forest meets the immovable object. This is when supremely talented high variability meets
decently capable remarkably consistent. That's what this game is.
We're going to see it's going to be so interesting to see it's going to be agonizing to watch
win or lose just the way the bills have played recently, but it's going to be a fun one.
Also fun JJ was doing this pod with you. Happy to do another playoff preview with you. It's
something that we know as longtime bills fans. We don't always get a chance to talk playoffs.
So we should cherish these beautiful, if yet brief moments as we get to experience them.
Enjoy every minute of this weekend because we're going to, you know, we're going to see
the rest of the AFC matchups happen before the bills game Sunday at one at Highmark Stadium.
But we'll know going into the Steelers game what the next round of the playoffs would
be with a win. Here's to hoping. All right. Here's to hoping it's Casey, baby. I want
my homes and bring them for the playoffs. Yes. All right. So for all of you listening
at home, like, share and subscribe wherever you get your podcast, Google, Apple Spotify.
And as always, go bills, go bills.
All right.