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All right, welcome back to the Buffalo Bread podcast.

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We are in the Week 18.

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It has all come to this.

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We are recording here on Saturday, or Sunday actually, Sunday morning, early Sunday morning.

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We had a bit of a technical issue with our previous recording, so we're coming back at

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you.

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And the good news is that gives us the most up-to-date information to share with Bill's

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mafia heading into this evening in about 14 hours match up between the Buffalo Bills

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and the Miami Dolphins.

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Dan's here with me as always to talk about what the heck happened last weekend and what

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are we so terrified about today?

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Dan, what's going on?

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Good morning, JJ.

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I am terrified tonight that what will happen is what we have seen from the Bills over

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the last two weeks where they have played either injury-depleted squads in the case

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of New England or substandard squads in the case of LA.

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And they will not rise to the occasion against a team that they should manage rather handily.

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Now this is no shade to Miami.

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Miami is a talented team, but I think we can both acknowledge based off the injury report

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they're going to be depleted on the defensive side of the ball, and they're also going to

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be depleted on the offensive side of the ball as well, with news breaking last night that

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while Waddle and Moster are questionable, both are unlikely to play in this game.

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The Bills JJ have a track record of absolutely dominating competition that we feel should

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be really competitive against them.

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The first game against Miami has a great case in point, the Dallas game a couple of weeks

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ago again another one.

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And then I guess the term would be playing down to the competition when they face a team

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that on paper they should handle pretty readily, but for whatever reason don't.

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This is an interesting mix of those two concepts because this is right now the number two-seeded

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team in the AFC and the Miami Dolphins and the team leading the AFC East.

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They've got a great record, but also this is a roster that is depleted as well.

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If the Bills go into this, I think with the wrong mindset, we could see a game that's

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much more akin to the New England and the LA game as opposed to that Dallas game.

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Well, I think you're absolutely right.

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And we saw the Bills go into Arrowhead and defeat the Chiefs.

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It was close, but they beat them.

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They beat, you know, that's a Super Bowl champ from last year.

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And then turn around and or prior to the buy go to Philly and in a driving rainstorm have

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the game decided basically by just a 59 yard field goal that was probably the most unlikely

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to make ever to send it to overtime.

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So yeah, I think that, you know, that's what we've seen as Bills fans all year is they

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get up for massive competition and they play down to teams they should absolutely roll.

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This Dolphin squad is the exact opposite.

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They still to this date only have one winning, you know, one winning game against a team

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above 500 and that's the Cowboys and that one was very close.

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And so, you know, they've they've lost.

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I think they're one in four against playoff caliber teams this this season.

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One they are.

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It was an incredible stat that I want to I want to give credit where credits do.

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I think I heard it on Extra Point Taken on the ringer podcast network.

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The Miami Dolphins are currently one in four against teams with a winning record when they

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played that team, which is the lowest winning percentage and win total in the modern NFL

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era for any team that is qualified for the playoffs.

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In addition, that's also the fewest games any playoff qualifying team has played against

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teams with a winning record at the time they face them as well.

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So JJ, I understand advanced metrics, you know, have something to say about strength

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of schedule and opposing opponent DVOA and all the stuff.

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But the reality is, is that the Miami Dolphins have had a very easy light schedule this season.

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They haven't been tested a lot.

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And in those moments, they've have been tested against good teams.

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Their their point margin, their point differential is minus 49 against teams with a winning record

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when they play them.

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It's stunning and staggering for a team that also put up 70 points and a win earlier on

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in the season.

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It really is a polar opposite team, depending on whether or not they're at home and whether

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or not they're playing a team with a winning record.

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It's crazy.

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And this week, they are playing at home, which is something that should give, you know, that's

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part of that.

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When we opened the pod talking about being scared of this match up this game and the

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stakes at hand.

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At this point, we also have the, you know, we have the ability to now to know that the

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others won and the Houston Texans and the Indianapolis Colts did not tie.

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So two of the three things that, you know, had that had to happen to knock the bills

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out of the playoffs, should they lose have happened to this juncture.

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The only the only kind of switch left to flip is tomorrow or today, the 425, I believe the

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Jaguars will be taking on the Titans and whom they've already beat once before, likely

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Trevor Lawrence is back in for this game.

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And if the Jaguars win, they take the AFC South and that is the final switch so that

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would make a bills loss, a loss and, you know, goodbye, you're on your couch or booking your

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trips to Cabo for the off season.

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So that's kind of punching up even more things that we need to pay attention to that today

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in this, this route to Miami.

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And like you were saying, Miami is kind of this polarizing team against inferior competition

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versus, you know, superior competition and then also home and away.

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They are home.

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They do have a lot of injury situations that they're stacked up against it kind of slow

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down that high flying offense.

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But they do, you know, they also have high stakes.

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If Miami wins, there are two seed and they're hosting at least two playoff games if they

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make it that far.

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If they lose, they're automatically locked in as the sixth seed behind Cleveland and

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will be traveling to number three Kansas City Arrowhead, the first round of the playoffs.

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And so, you know, if I'm Miami knowing how poorly I play on the road versus how well

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I play at home, I am not wanting to let the Buffalo Bills take the AFCs from me and that

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two seed making the path to a Super Bowl so much, so much harder.

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It definitely and on the flip side of that coin, if you're a Bills fan, if the Jags,

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if both if the the Bills can do no worse than the seventh seed, which means if they find

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their way into the playoffs today with a Jags loss, but also lose today in Miami, they're

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just headed back to Miami next week to play this team again.

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And we know what the the metrics are on beating a team three times in the same season.

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It is almost impossible to do.

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So if the Bills get the win today and they end up finishing as the two seed, I think

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two things happen.

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One, we would welcome a home game in Buffalo against the seventh seed, which right now is

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projecting to be Pittsburgh, I want to say, right?

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Yeah, I think it's Pittsburgh, especially now with TJ Watt looking like he's got some

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sort of groin injury as well, and maybe maybe out for that first round against Pittsburgh.

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And but you avoid that dreaded rematch with the division, divisional opponent to much

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later on down the road.

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So you know, JJ overall, I think, I think the Bills want to win out.

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That's still the easiest course.

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I know my trauma is a Bills fan is saying, well, hopefully the Jags lose.

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So at least we are, we are guaranteed a playoff spot by the time we head into that game.

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So there's a little less at stake.

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But still, I think the priority for the Bills has to be winning today, clinching that fourth

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straight AFC East championship, and then heading into next week, knowing you're going to be

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at home against a tough opponent in Pittsburgh, but knowing that you really can kind of control

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home field and maybe even could be squeaking out an extra home game, depending on what

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happens with Baltimore and their matchup against the lowest remaining seed in the divisional

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round as well.

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So if you are the Bills, you want to take advantage of this injury to pleaded dolphins

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roster, you want to take advantage of a team offensively that has been down, I would say

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over the past couple of weeks.

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But JJ, I feel like an order for them to do that.

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The bills got a few a couple of things primarily on offense.

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I think you and I can both agree that since the buy, this Buffalo Bills defense has been

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surprisingly strong.

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The book on them, especially after that Eagles game was that they were vulnerable in the

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spine of the defense because the age of their safeties and the relative inexperience of

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their linebacking core with Matt Milano being out.

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And despite the fact that Terrell Bernard, who is a Pro Bowl snub, by the way, despite

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the fact that Terrell Bernard had been playing absolutely out of his mind and we see it every

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week, teams were exploiting the middle of the field on this Buffalo Bills defense.

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Flash forward after that Philly game.

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And this Buffalo's Bills defense has played absolutely lights out at every level of the

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field.

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Hide took a couple of games off due to injury, came back in the New England game and look

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great.

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We are also getting to quad Jones back.

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It feels like just the right time as he returned in that New England game as well.

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So this Buffalo Bills defense feels like it's getting healthy at the right time.

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And I'll jump in on just one note.

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Yeah, go ahead.

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Stomp on your take.

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After rewatching the Patriots game to kind of see what that happened on offense, I also

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watched some of the defensive snaps.

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Dequan Jones did not look like a person playing with a still repairing toward pack.

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He was playing with all of his pass rush moves.

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He was doing full extension.

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He was handling the point of attack and double teams, all the things you expect to see in

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it.

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Certainly there was noticeably something missing from his get off and his like juice that he

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had before the injury.

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But the things that would make me that I was looking out for to see if somebody, you know,

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like I think I remember seeing JJ Watt come back for the playoffs with one of his runs

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after a torn pack.

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I think it was still with Houston.

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And you could tell he was favoring one side.

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He was only using moves to one side away from the injury.

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That wasn't it for Dequan Jones.

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He looked like he might have been working through some football shape issues.

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But in terms of like actually being able to use his full range of upper body stuff, he

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looked good.

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Sorry.

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Oh, no, no, he did.

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And I was going to say he also played 50% of the snap share that position as well, which

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coming back from an extended injury, injury stay was great.

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Was great to see.

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And it was clear that the bills were ramping him up for this Miami game where they're absolutely

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going to need him, even with most are out.

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Devon H.N. is still going to still going to be a factor in this run game.

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And with Miami having been limited, have so many other weapons on the outside, their lack

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of depth in the wide receiver room is likely going to play a factor here too.

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So I can see Miami relying heavily on that vaunted run game in which they are still number

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one in the EPA and the league per rush attempt.

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So so it's definitely going to be a test for this bill's defense.

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But it feels like the bills are getting healthy JJ at a time where the dolphins are in an

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injury deficit right now.

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So where do you want to start?

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Because I think we can tie in some of our observations from New England game into this

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pregame for the Buffalo Bills, particularly on the offensive side of the ball, where

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I know you and I both have some strong feelings on what we feel like we need to see against

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Miami based on the bills previous outings.

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You want to start defense versus Miami offense or vice versa here.

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No, let's let's start with the bills offense, because I think that we can both agree the

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strength of this team right now is that is the defense and how they've been playing.

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So let's start.

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That's crazy, isn't it?

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I know how much they've lost this season.

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Like it is far as personnel.

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That's unbelievable.

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Which like if you're out there and you're one of those, you know, fire McDermott people,

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which was me at one point this season, right?

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I think it was.

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Yeah, absolutely.

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Well, because it you know, it was like the Tyler Dunn piece came out and there was like

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so much going around that he just like was not that he did not have that team.

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But then like moments, I think that galvanized them because after that, that, you know, hit

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job in the media, there was a there was a noticeable difference from this defense coming

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out, you know, with the kind of fire they were playing with.

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And so I think that maybe the locker room answered the claims that he didn't have them.

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Right.

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And so they agree.

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And that I think is that's something to note about the season.

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But yeah, let's let's start with the bills offense, because I think that we can finish

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with strength and talk about the bills defense versus this Miami depleted offense.

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So on offense, these Buffalo bills, what we've seen is that they've had a rejuven under

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Joe Brady since the Philly game.

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We've seen they have this amazing kind of rejuvenated rushing attack.

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Their metrics all all track that they're, you know, yards before contact yards per rush,

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they're they're doing really good work in the in the run game.

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And that's nice.

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They've also re, you know, reestablished Josh Allen as a weapon in the rushing attack.

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And so those those things have changed for the better under Joe Brady.

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Joe Brady is also excelled at getting the ball out to tight ends and running backs out of

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the backfield.

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Where we've seen some slips is that, you know, their Stefan Diggs is all but disappeared

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from this offense since the since the buy.

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And Gabe Davis, I think we talked from, you know, previous pods about how he just disappeared

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for three games.

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He showed up for one had a really excellent, excellent game and then disappeared again.

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And so it's it's getting the ball outside the hashes to wide receivers and connecting

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on a lot of our standard wide receiver, you know, passing concepts that Josh Allen has

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excelled in in the years in years past has just not been there.

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He's you know, been dirt in some balls, he's been overthrowing the connections have not

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looked good.

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And it's not it's the the weird thing about it is that this stage in a season, especially

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at this stage in many of these players careers with the bills, it shouldn't look like he

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struggles to have chemistry with these targets, right?

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Like, after especially after seeing the start of the season, when things were clicking with

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this offense a lot better with a lot of those those concepts, they hit a lull in the middle

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of the season, it just hasn't come back yet.

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And so we haven't seen a huge Josh Allen game, you know, Josh Allen player of the week against

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these dolphins in week four.

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That was, you know, for touch, he had more touchdowns than any incompletions in that

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game, I think it was 21 of 24 for four TDs 300 plus yards.

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It's just that kind of thing where we're, you know, we haven't seen a Josh Allen takeover

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game.

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And I'm hoping that this dolphin squad is the get right for Josh because he's he's really

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dominated them in the in the years past in the regular season.

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So yeah, those are kind of my observations generally about the state of the offense.

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The Bills are still one of three or four teams, the entire 32 team league that have their

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their preferred five starting offensive linemen for every game this season, which I think

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that, you know, to see the offense flailing any year where I mean, Josh Allen has been

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dinged up here and there.

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But other than that, we've seen mostly healthy across the board on offense.

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Weapons have been in.

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And so it's really a question of what is happening and can they can they do something against

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it's a team they know very well to really kind of get things sparked heading into the

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playoffs and win this one and then continue on with rolling.

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Yeah, it really feels like that Bill's fandom doesn't have the the juice or the energy for

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another let's blame the coordinator round of criticisms here when it comes to the bills

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passing game.

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So everyone I think is looking to sort of spread the blame out in a variety of different areas

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digs is hurt or he's taking himself if you listen to Josh Norman taking himself off of

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certain drives.

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There is the Josh is just injured or he's missing guys.

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But I think it's a it's a combination of just about everything.

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So one of the things JJ you and I talked about was wanting to see how Brady would adjust

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when teams were starting to take away some of these check down concepts to James Cook.

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We saw that a little bit in the LA game and then we saw it really in the New England game

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where team where those teams were sending a free rusher on whatever side James Cook

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was coming off of.

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So I was doing one of two things it was disrupting cook getting out of the backfield on those

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passing downs but it was also closing out the passing lane between Allen and Cook forcing

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Allen to hold on to the ball a little bit longer move around in the pocket move around

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outside the pocket and look for a different target.

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But I haven't seen Brady do though with a lot of these route trees and route concepts

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in the passing game is exploit the middle of the field with anybody other than concaid

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and other than cook.

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And this was a criticism that we had of Dorsey's play calling last year and then early on this

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season as well where you saw you see if you look at the NFL next gen stat passing charts

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you see Josh when throwing to wide receivers almost exclusively looking outside the hashes

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and outside the numbers.

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But when you play a team like New England and when you play a team like LA where there

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is a vulnerability in the middle of the field due to injuries or lack of talent and the

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linebacking core.

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And this wasn't the case with New England but they were down Jabral Peppers in that

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game.

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Yes they still had Kyle Duggar but when you've got safety play that you can exploit as well

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in that Philly game Josh lived in the middle of the field both with his legs and with his

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arm.

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And then since we have come back from the buy it's been a lot of what we had seen before

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which is if we're going to target digs or we're going to target Davis it's going to

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be outside the hash marks.

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There is an opportunity with how banged up this dolphins defense is for the bills to

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get back to good by using the middle of the field again it is where the primary weakness

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of this dolphins offense is.

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And it's not that teams are condensing the middle of the field and trying to take it

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away.

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It's just that for whatever reason that's not where Josh's first read is going or that's

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not where his alternate reads are going.

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And it's not where a lot of these route trees are ending up to when you pull Davis's route

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chart and you pull digs as route chart they're almost exclusively running outside of the

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hashes.

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Now granted you don't want all of these routes that Kincaid could be running the check down

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stuff with Cook and then digs and Davis clouding the middle of the field but there is still

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an opportunity to use some of your A grade weapons like digs and I would put Shakir in

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that realm as well in the middle of the field a little bit more creatively.

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I would love to see a CD lamb type of approach to the use of digs in this game and see him

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line up in the slot.

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So if Ramsey is going to follow you're going to take one of the best outside defenders

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of Miami and you're going to immediately put him on the inside guarding guarding Stefan

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digs and if he's not you're almost guaranteed a mismatch with digs in the slot where you

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can get a quick route release and hopefully exploit the middle of the field.

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There should be a big Dalton Kincaid game as well because we know we saw Kincaid with

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that sort of breakout 51 yard bomb from Josh last game and I think this could be a game

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where Kincaid presents a lot of mismatches for what is a relatively undersized linebacker

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unit for the Miami Dolphins as well.

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There's a lot JJ that is there for the taking for the bills but based on the New England

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game based on the LA game they're just not taking it.

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It's so interesting because Brady came in and he was smashing the easy button with a

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lot of concepts check down concepts running bad concepts that Dorsey simply was not folding

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it in a consistent basis.

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There is stuff that exists in the passing game where he can do the same thing to before

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whatever reason it's not clicking either the route trees are inconsistently there or Josh

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isn't looking enough there but this is a game where you've got to hope that all those things

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get corrected because Miami despite the fact that Zaven Howard is not going to play they're

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still pretty tough and defending outside the numbers so you've got to exploit that middle

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part of the field especially with these light boxes that Fangio likes to play.

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Well I was just going to add that Fangio you know basically what we know about Fangio's

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defense when he's coached for other teams is true with the Dolphins this year.

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Their defense started rocky and has increased substantially week over week as players get

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more comfortable in the scheme understand the concepts and understand what he's asking them

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to do and what the leverages are and where they need to apply pressure and where they

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need to bail technique and where they need to jam and now that they're playing a little

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bit better they have Jalen Ramsey back over the past five weeks this Dolphins defense has

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been a top ten unit in almost every metric and you know the bills even though they're

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injury depleted need to take that seriously and I'm with you I think that what we've

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seen from Joe Brady is yes he's used concepts that were like begging you know Dorsey to

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use throughout the course of the year because Dorsey's plan was always our offense is the

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offense we need our players to execute because we have elite talent and when our players

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execute with our elite talent there is an answer for every defense and we will beat you and

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that was when that was true it was extra true but when it was false he never had a counter

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point he never had anything to maneuver to it Stefan Diggs was a step late or not getting

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separation in the game the whole the whole passing offense might be cooked you know Dorsey

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was was planning it with Brady he schemes ways to beat teams but again we're struggling

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to find an alternative when that first option is shut down and so I think that that's a

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vulnerability and to your point about you know the route trees that we see from Diggs

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Davis even Shakir for that matter not really passing the center line of the field I think

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that what we're seeing there is that Brady is using those threats as threats only not

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as weapons and that I think is a point it's a great way to put it that's a that's a component

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of his offense is using clear out routes and you know Gabe Davis got a game ball for blocking

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and running routes to pull defenders out of boxes and things like that and that's why

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in but you that's only useful if those if the threat of those routes is actually ever

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delivered on it's the same thing as play action passes it's effective you know it's

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effective to some extent 100% of the time but if you want it to be truly effective for

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game breaking plays and this is part of the reason I think we've seen the Buffalo Bills

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kind of go down quite a bit in offense when it comes to explosives they haven't done a

351
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you know 20 plus yard passes 10 plus yard runs in a bit and they've struggled to catch

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them in games because those you know threat routes that they have you know the wide receivers

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running Josh is not connecting on them for whatever reason those routes are not getting

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open for whatever reason and so teams are able to give a little bit more cushion give

355
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a little bit more separation and try to squeeze down on the things that the bills are doing

356
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well underneath which is seems to be stymying the offense and they're not able to you know

357
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cause the the defense is to loosen up very much and I agree with you I think that the

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dolphins you know outside the numbers they're pretty good in coverage as I mentioned before

359
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there are top 10 defense in most metrics since you know the past five weeks even if they've

360
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struggled here and there and they they gave up a massive clunker to to the Ravens that

361
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still tracks so that says that they're a little bit better than top 10 you know they might

362
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be top five in some of those metrics and so there's some opportunities across the middle

363
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field I think that even if Jerome Baker for the Miami Dolphins is coming back off of his

364
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IR you know that he's questionable right now is their inside linebacker their best inside

365
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linebacker still not like an elite coverage linebacker and so I think there's going to

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be some opportunities for cook there and really you know some things to get done the other

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thing to take note of from that Ravens game the the dolphins were playing their starting

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defense partly because of the injuries but also just because of their the way they approach

369
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it this is not the same as the bill's defense the bill's defense will come at you in waves

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and there there are reliable depth players behind the starting level that can get you

371
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through a game the dolphins don't have that the part of the reason they gave up 56 points

372
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is that because once their frontline defenders going went down and once their kind of interior

373
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defensive line Zach Sealer Christian Wilkins Raquan Davis once those guys get gassed

374
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they literally don't have defensive linemen past the second level they have a manual

375
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Agba Dashaun hand as interior big guys and then everybody else on their on their depth

376
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chart is marked as an insider outside linebacker and I know that that counts Melvin Ingram that

377
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counts Bradley Chubb that counts you know Jalen Phillips those are linebackers but we

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know they played down in the dirt but what that tells me then is that they don't have

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the kind of beef for a team like the Ravens who's gonna lean on you and run as much as

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you know some of the other you know as much as say that the Patriots that gave the bills

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a lot of problems and so I think that if you can establish a physical game against this

382
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defense and kind of beat them up they won't they won't bring it we saw until you know

383
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Lamar Jackson was pulled from the game with the the Ravens there were snaps where he had

384
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five to eight seconds in a completely clean pocket to throw the ball partially because

385
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at that point in the game some of those defensive tackles and defensive linemen had been you

386
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know up 100% of the snaps and we're just didn't have anything left and so I think that if the

387
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bills can have long sustained drives that's another area of weakness is not only just

388
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the injuries but the fact that they don't have reliable depth and so you get a much

389
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less capable squad once you tire out the starters and that's I think been an underrated story

390
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JJ of this Miami Dolphins team on both sides of the ball this season the roster construction

391
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really has lent itself to a lack of depth and a lot of key positions that this offense

392
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in the way McDaniel calls it there are a priority and I look specifically at the tight end and

393
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wide receiver room with that and then on the defensive side of the ball as well an overall

394
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lack of depth I think everywhere except you could argue maybe that defensive back room

395
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but a linebacker in D line you're absolutely right traditional middle linebacker I mean

396
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this is a Miami team that that doesn't have a lot of depth which is surprising because

397
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you still have a QB who is on a rookie contract and not getting paid yet you know it's interesting

398
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you brought up the metrics on the Miami Dolphins defense this is a team that heading into that

399
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Baltimore game was sixth in weighted DVO a which takes into account more recent performance

400
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and kind of bunks early season performance so you're absolutely right that after this

401
00:27:50,680 --> 00:27:55,800
eight week mark two things tend to happen traditionally teams in the in the fan geo

402
00:27:55,800 --> 00:27:59,560
scheme they start to get better in the second half of the season but then they also got

403
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Jalen Ramsey back at that time as well and it was this great confluence of things while

404
00:28:05,000 --> 00:28:09,480
this Miami Dolphin team was also going into a soft kind of garbage part of its schedule

405
00:28:09,480 --> 00:28:14,840
as well it's had a lot of opportunities to get right granted not against great competition

406
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game in and game out but now you look where they're at not just with the injuries but

407
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with where this scheme can be exploited and I think there's a lot working towards the bill's

408
00:28:25,800 --> 00:28:32,360
advantage here and we have to remember too that that JJ Josh Allen has played three games against

409
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a fan geo style defense defense that has been led by Vic Fangio himself one earlier on this

410
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season and then two in prior years and he has scorched Vic Fangio called defenses Fangio

411
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doesn't seem to have JJ a lot of answers for what Josh can do with his legs or with his

412
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ability to extend plays and asking these DB's to hold up in coverage for long swatches of

413
00:28:59,080 --> 00:29:05,080
time isn't something that this style of defense is geared to do so it'll be interesting to

414
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see to me if Fangio decides to call an audible he blitzes at one of the lowest rates in the

415
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league I think Miami is only blitzed on 21% of its pass rushes this year I wonder if they're

416
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going to dial that up a little bit JJ and here's why the book on Josh Allen has typically been

417
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that you cannot blitz him because if you blitz him he'll destroy the blitz like he did in that

418
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week five game against Miami where he was absolutely stellar against the blitz that being said though

419
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we've seen from the Jacksonville game really on a lot more teams apply a lot more pressure to Josh

420
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in the form of delayed blitzes and in the form of simulated pressure you know it's interesting

421
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because Josh JJ I didn't believe this until I saw the stats on pro football reference Josh is a top

422
00:29:53,800 --> 00:30:01,720
10 QB as far as blitz rate this season which means teams are blitzing him at a far higher rate than

423
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they had the previous two seasons last season he was 17th in blitz rate and then the season before

424
00:30:06,920 --> 00:30:12,440
that he was 15 so teams have kicked it up a notch and JJ that tells me that they're seeing something

425
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either with this Buffalo Bill's pass protection or Josh's decision-making ability or potentially

426
00:30:18,600 --> 00:30:23,480
the lack of performance from some of these wide receivers and pass catchers particularly after

427
00:30:23,480 --> 00:30:28,760
the buy they're seeing something that says if I blitz Josh and get his timing off this Bill's

428
00:30:28,760 --> 00:30:33,400
this Bill's offense doesn't have the chance doesn't have the ability to quickly adjust or if Josh

429
00:30:33,400 --> 00:30:39,000
extends the play I'm not as worried about the weapons down the field anymore as I maybe was in

430
00:30:39,000 --> 00:30:44,040
previous years you know JJ it's interesting we said that the bills needed to fix the drop problem

431
00:30:44,040 --> 00:30:48,120
that their pass catchers had last year but this is still a team that ranks number four in the league

432
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and drops with 29 overall for the entire season 12 of those 29 JJ have come since the buy so in the

433
00:30:56,760 --> 00:31:02,840
last month of the season so these Buffalo Bill's pass catchers aren't executing on a lot of these

434
00:31:02,840 --> 00:31:08,120
broken down plays like they used to and Josh isn't playing as well against the blitz anymore either

435
00:31:08,120 --> 00:31:15,480
with some of his delay decision-making and inaccuracy if there is a way for the dolphins I think to not

436
00:31:15,480 --> 00:31:19,880
to not wait for the game to come to them it's going to be in the form of Fangio to meet changing it

437
00:31:19,880 --> 00:31:24,520
up and blitzing Josh more which is definitely not at his comfort zone but is something I think that

438
00:31:24,520 --> 00:31:29,000
we're going to have to keep an eye out for as an added wrinkle with everything on the line for the

439
00:31:29,000 --> 00:31:33,960
afc east in this game well I agree with you I think that that's one that's been talked about

440
00:31:33,960 --> 00:31:39,240
kind of across the you know the talk space this week leading up is that he may need to do that

441
00:31:39,240 --> 00:31:43,640
with how depleted they are the other piece that he may need to do that he doesn't like to do is to

442
00:31:43,640 --> 00:31:50,920
have Jalen Ramsey trail Stefan Diggs and we know about you know Josh Allen and Jalen Ramsey's

443
00:31:50,920 --> 00:31:56,120
beef and the way that he likes to test that guy after all the comments when Josh was coming out

444
00:31:56,120 --> 00:32:06,120
of the draft and then we have the added complexity of Eli Apple who is the opposite side CB who's

445
00:32:06,120 --> 00:32:12,360
filling in with Zamey Howard out and the beef that he has with Stefan Diggs after all of his talk

446
00:32:12,360 --> 00:32:17,400
you know post Cincinnati Bengals playoff game in Orchard Park where the the Bengals destroyed

447
00:32:17,400 --> 00:32:24,680
the bills and so Eli Apple was absolutely completely decompensate during the Ravens game

448
00:32:24,680 --> 00:32:30,360
they took him to the to the house you know on multiple snaps one snap that he was roasted for

449
00:32:30,360 --> 00:32:38,040
repeatedly was where Lamar Jackson dropped back as if he was a lefty and then switched his feet

450
00:32:38,040 --> 00:32:43,160
and through and for some reason Eli Apple bit on that and thought that there was no way that he

451
00:32:43,160 --> 00:32:47,240
was going to throw to that side of the field and so like you know which is just kind of are you a

452
00:32:47,240 --> 00:32:50,600
professional football player are you a professional of any kind like he's not gonna throw a left

453
00:32:50,600 --> 00:32:57,240
hand it are you kidding and so you know that's the kind of thing that it'll be interesting to see

454
00:32:57,240 --> 00:33:02,840
how they approach coverage to you know try to get that execution as you mentioned Dan from the

455
00:33:02,840 --> 00:33:08,920
from the wide receivers is you know what's Fangio going to do to try to keep that you know

456
00:33:08,920 --> 00:33:13,960
drops up execution down for this bills you know bills team who's definitely gonna try to get that

457
00:33:13,960 --> 00:33:19,400
going I think against this you know the Dolphins with how Josh has performed he likes to push the

458
00:33:19,400 --> 00:33:24,440
ball it should be like 70 degrees with between two and five miles per hour of winds this evening

459
00:33:24,440 --> 00:33:29,800
and so it should be perfect night for football cloudy but not really expected to have have rain

460
00:33:29,800 --> 00:33:36,360
and if it is maybe a sprinkle nothing too serious so yeah I mean there won't be any excuses I think

461
00:33:36,360 --> 00:33:42,440
is my point there won't be any excuses for Joe Brady Josh Allen stuff on digs etc to not make

462
00:33:42,440 --> 00:33:48,440
something happen against this defense and I'm worried if we see a slow start and a failure to

463
00:33:48,440 --> 00:33:54,360
get going in the scripted portion of these plays I'm severely worried about even if the bills make

464
00:33:54,360 --> 00:34:00,440
it into the playoffs with a win how they fare against teams that have a chance to prepare for them

465
00:34:00,440 --> 00:34:05,080
and you know are able to shut that down because you know it's good it's a big test there's gonna

466
00:34:05,080 --> 00:34:11,960
be a true test for Joe Brady versus a Fangio defense and it's going to be an interesting relief to see

467
00:34:13,240 --> 00:34:18,600
basically an equivalent offense offense from a talent perspective based on injury you know injury

468
00:34:18,600 --> 00:34:25,720
luck and how they face the dolphins under Dorsey versus how Brady handles them and I know the second

469
00:34:25,720 --> 00:34:29,560
one's always harder because you give them a chance to see your personnel and see your opportunities

470
00:34:30,600 --> 00:34:36,440
but I do think it's going to tell a story of what kind of capabilities Joe Brady has as an

471
00:34:36,440 --> 00:34:43,720
offensive game planner and as an offensive schemer in what he brings to the table in this game because

472
00:34:43,720 --> 00:34:50,680
you can't you know there's some cheats available for him in the form of inferior talent on the field

473
00:34:50,680 --> 00:34:57,560
for the dolphins and so the real question is can you unlock some things or can you expose some

474
00:34:57,560 --> 00:35:05,720
things that Fangio is trying to scheme to correct? Yeah well said well said and I think that puts a

475
00:35:05,720 --> 00:35:11,320
very beautiful little bow on our analysis of that side of the ball JJ how about we flip over now and

476
00:35:11,320 --> 00:35:16,920
talk about this this surging Bill's defense against what'll also be an injury depleted

477
00:35:17,720 --> 00:35:23,720
Miami Dolphins offense so as it stands right now I believe Miami is set to play only one of its

478
00:35:23,720 --> 00:35:29,640
offensive line starters in the game Tyree Kill is in but has been in a walking boot all week

479
00:35:29,640 --> 00:35:35,000
Jaylen Waddle likely to be out or he most are likely to be out for this game and folks need to

480
00:35:35,000 --> 00:35:41,000
remember that the dolphins can do no worse than sixth right now they are in the playoffs no matter

481
00:35:41,000 --> 00:35:47,400
what so while I'm sure they would like the two seed and lay home field advantage my my sense is

482
00:35:47,400 --> 00:35:52,120
there's also something in the back of their mind that says we are already in we don't want to risk

483
00:35:52,120 --> 00:35:57,720
what could be a very deep playoff run by putting guys out there when they're not ready to play

484
00:35:57,720 --> 00:36:03,800
so Waddle most are most of the offensive line likely out for this game JJ it's going to be Tyree

485
00:36:03,800 --> 00:36:10,600
Kill on the outside and then probably Cedric Wilson or somebody like that Braxton Berrios

486
00:36:10,600 --> 00:36:15,960
is the the number two outside wide receiver here and then it's going to be a steady steady

487
00:36:15,960 --> 00:36:23,160
diet of I think Devon HN and and Jeff Wilson Jr coming out of that backfield so JJ what do you

488
00:36:23,160 --> 00:36:29,000
see are some of the keys for this now all of a sudden almost healthy Buffalo Bills defense

489
00:36:29,000 --> 00:36:36,200
as they go into a depleted yet still dangerous Miami offensive setup yeah so I think that the

490
00:36:36,200 --> 00:36:43,160
um you know it feels like you know it feels feels like the point of the pod loses its potency

491
00:36:43,160 --> 00:36:47,320
when my answer is almost always win the trenches right like it's hard but that's football like

492
00:36:47,320 --> 00:36:52,760
there's no way to answer this question I have totally noticed that about us like it's like I'm

493
00:36:52,760 --> 00:36:56,760
always on the offensive tuck the middle of the field James Cook involved and you're like throw

494
00:36:56,760 --> 00:37:01,400
to the trenches right yeah I'm like win the trenches win the 22 episodes and it's been the

495
00:37:01,400 --> 00:37:07,000
same thing basically for how the bills need to win yeah exactly so you know I think that that's

496
00:37:07,000 --> 00:37:12,600
that's that's the thing for me is like and to expand on that it's not just when the trenches

497
00:37:12,600 --> 00:37:16,600
because like I said that's that can be applied to every single football game that's the strategy

498
00:37:16,600 --> 00:37:21,640
to win every game on offense and defensive lines is to win the the physicality of the game

499
00:37:21,640 --> 00:37:27,080
and impose your will on the opposition and so I think that's the answer but more specifically

500
00:37:27,080 --> 00:37:33,560
scheme wise I think it's you need to set the the edges of that defensive line with Rousseau

501
00:37:33,560 --> 00:37:39,160
Epineza Floyd um maybe I don't know if von Miller's going to be back in this one I hope he's going

502
00:37:39,160 --> 00:37:44,360
to be inactive because Kingsley Jonathan looked really nice against the the Patriots I think

503
00:37:44,360 --> 00:37:49,480
you know give him a young a young you know upstart um who's on a cheap contract and so it sort of

504
00:37:49,480 --> 00:37:54,600
feels okay for him to take snaps from a super expensive contract and von Miller um in terms

505
00:37:54,600 --> 00:38:00,200
that you're not like kind of double paying and so give them a chance but have them set the pocket

506
00:38:00,200 --> 00:38:06,920
wide and maintain the edges until they know it's not a pass or not not a run because that's where

507
00:38:06,920 --> 00:38:12,840
Devon A-chain has Devon A-chain has been really you know hurting other teams he's not a between

508
00:38:12,840 --> 00:38:18,280
the tackles runner um they have done some things with zone that he's found some small seams because

509
00:38:18,280 --> 00:38:23,560
he's also kind of a small guy um that in his quicks right so he's found some seams in the middle of

510
00:38:23,560 --> 00:38:29,160
that line but most of his money is being made outside the tackles and so if you're able to have

511
00:38:29,160 --> 00:38:35,400
somebody like like I think that Greg Rousseau is probably a top five or six dn in this league when

512
00:38:35,400 --> 00:38:40,520
it comes to setting the edge mostly because of his length it's really hard to leverage that guy

513
00:38:40,520 --> 00:38:45,240
and not give him an option to get outside and then shut something down or at least squeeze a running

514
00:38:45,240 --> 00:38:50,680
back further towards the sideline or back inside towards his linebackers and so I think that setting

515
00:38:50,680 --> 00:38:57,080
the edge um the side opposite Rousseau is going to be critical to shutting down this run game

516
00:38:57,080 --> 00:39:01,640
in terms of shutting down the pass I think it's it's the same thing the bills the bills have

517
00:39:01,640 --> 00:39:07,160
held Tyree kill under 60 yards every time they faced him in the Sean McDermot era they know how to

518
00:39:07,160 --> 00:39:13,080
bracket him it's the same thing that they did against CD Lam um often it's is that it's not a true

519
00:39:13,080 --> 00:39:18,520
double or triple team but it's rather you're just kind of flip you're you're floating your zone

520
00:39:18,520 --> 00:39:23,800
to be a little bit thicker with bodies towards that player side of the field and you're always capping

521
00:39:23,800 --> 00:39:29,560
with a say safety on his side of the field and so it whether it's one high or two high safeties

522
00:39:29,560 --> 00:39:35,400
you're always shading to keep things over the top and that's I think going to apply even more in

523
00:39:35,400 --> 00:39:40,760
this matchup with Jalen Waddle likely not to play they're not going to be afraid of some of those

524
00:39:40,760 --> 00:39:45,720
other players getting deep on them because they they have done an excellent job the past few weeks

525
00:39:45,720 --> 00:39:51,640
of marrying the rush with the coverage and making sure that they have an answer in shutting down the

526
00:39:51,640 --> 00:39:57,240
pocket in less than three seconds as a you know to kind of close off half the field we've seen the

527
00:39:57,240 --> 00:40:02,120
the bills suffer this so many times where there's you know Gabe Davis running wide open in the end

528
00:40:02,120 --> 00:40:08,520
zone but the rush has has an answer for that which is they bring overbearing pressure to one side to

529
00:40:08,520 --> 00:40:13,880
the same side that Gabe Davis is running open and uncovered they have pressure coming from there so

530
00:40:13,880 --> 00:40:18,520
Josh is flushed to the opposite side of the field which kind of takes that throw off the table

531
00:40:19,400 --> 00:40:24,040
especially if he has pressure he can't flip his flip his hips and set his feet and get you know one

532
00:40:24,040 --> 00:40:28,200
of those cross cross body cross field throws throws out that's the kind of thing that the

533
00:40:28,200 --> 00:40:33,880
bills can do here too is you you set your coverage is super strong and then you have an option or a

534
00:40:33,880 --> 00:40:40,760
lever a stunt a delayed blitz with Bernard to really flush to a to a to a place where he's

535
00:40:40,760 --> 00:40:46,520
uncomfortable and make a throw back across his body those are the things that I can see also I

536
00:40:46,520 --> 00:40:53,000
think that you know you mentioned to her Bernard having a great year and as a as a pro bowl snub

537
00:40:53,000 --> 00:40:58,840
it seems criminal I mean he's the first player in like 35 years or something to have six sacks

538
00:40:58,840 --> 00:41:04,520
three interceptions two fumbles two fumble recoveries you know like he has had an outstanding

539
00:41:04,520 --> 00:41:09,080
first year as a starter and I think that there's a lag right like and we've talked about the pro bowl

540
00:41:09,080 --> 00:41:12,840
before it doesn't really matter it's kind of pointless you know Jalen Ramsey missed seven games

541
00:41:12,840 --> 00:41:17,400
this season somehow a pro bowler but Russell Douglas leads the entire league in takeaways

542
00:41:17,400 --> 00:41:24,520
the past six weeks and he is not um Josh Allen has like 17 more touchdowns or 13 more touchdowns

543
00:41:24,520 --> 00:41:30,920
than Patrick Mahomes but Mahomes is for some reason the pro bowl quarterback doesn't matter

544
00:41:30,920 --> 00:41:35,480
I'm excited to see when the all-pro comes out because I think that's a more that that matters

545
00:41:35,480 --> 00:41:41,480
more and it's more it's it's a more honest and reasonable assessment of players capabilities

546
00:41:42,600 --> 00:41:49,080
and so all that being said back to the kind of defensive scheme I like I don't think that they

547
00:41:49,080 --> 00:41:53,720
should shadow Russell Douglas over Tyree kill I think that he's their best coverage player but I

548
00:41:53,720 --> 00:42:00,040
think they can play the defense as the defense they can like I said flip their zones towards Tyreek

549
00:42:00,040 --> 00:42:04,600
but not worry about you know having an individual assigned to him because I think there's some

550
00:42:04,600 --> 00:42:11,400
opportunities there that if they start to cap um off uh the route tree that Hill is about able to hit

551
00:42:11,960 --> 00:42:16,520
that will have opportunities from Russell Douglas to take on some of those secondary

552
00:42:17,320 --> 00:42:25,240
receiving threats and potentially take away some balls yeah absolutely I think I agree with you I

553
00:42:25,240 --> 00:42:31,480
don't want to see any one defender on the bill's defense assigned to Tyreek Hill because it is

554
00:42:31,480 --> 00:42:36,760
good as Russell Douglas has been I don't know that there's anybody on the bill's defense that is

555
00:42:36,760 --> 00:42:42,280
capable of managing that assignment for four quarters but I also too think that that does not play

556
00:42:42,280 --> 00:42:48,360
to the strengths of this defensive scheme we saw them in week five play a lot of cover six a lot of

557
00:42:48,360 --> 00:42:54,280
cloud coverage over Tyree kill and we've seen them do that as you mentioned with CD lamb and other

558
00:42:54,280 --> 00:43:00,120
number one wide receivers on opposing teams the issue for the bills this season hasn't been

559
00:43:00,120 --> 00:43:04,760
shutting down number one wide receivers has been shutting down the number two option which based on

560
00:43:04,760 --> 00:43:10,600
DVOA heading into this week the Buffalo Bills ranked 29th in the league at doing that now that's

561
00:43:10,600 --> 00:43:17,720
not necessarily a criticism of Christian Benford who recently has really come on and settled in

562
00:43:17,720 --> 00:43:25,160
to that number two uh CB slot um very admirably but it's more to the effect of the bills assigned

563
00:43:25,160 --> 00:43:30,840
so many resources defensively to shutting down a number one wide receiver they're often leaving

564
00:43:30,840 --> 00:43:37,640
their number two guy um on an island for a long time that number two guy was dane Jackson because

565
00:43:37,640 --> 00:43:42,760
with the tray white out and before the arrival of rizul Douglas Benford was the number one lockdown

566
00:43:43,320 --> 00:43:48,680
CB for this team so a lot of those numbers are inflated with by dane Jackson stats and we've

567
00:43:48,680 --> 00:43:54,600
had that conversation about Jackson's limitations and coverage but Benford has really elevated play

568
00:43:54,600 --> 00:44:00,280
opposite of Douglas and I think that gives that should give Sean McDermott even more confidence

569
00:44:00,280 --> 00:44:04,760
enrolling out some of these cloud coverages over to rekill and then you can rely on Christian

570
00:44:04,760 --> 00:44:11,480
Benford to manage his own to run uh Teran Johnson to manage his own in the slot against some of these

571
00:44:13,000 --> 00:44:17,720
lesser is going to sound like a cruel cruel word but the reality is is there is a drop off between

572
00:44:17,720 --> 00:44:25,880
Tyree kill Jalen Waddle and the rest of these wide receivers on this Miami offense so I think Benford

573
00:44:25,880 --> 00:44:32,600
and Johnson managing those counterparts for of Tyree kill that talent drop off I think is a lot

574
00:44:32,600 --> 00:44:36,680
more doable you just can't let he'll beat you in this game and you got to force Miami to figure

575
00:44:36,680 --> 00:44:42,280
out another way to do that while they are so depleted and listen I say this every time too

576
00:44:42,280 --> 00:44:49,080
got to get pressure on to a if he gets the ball out and less than in in 2.3 seconds he is deadly

577
00:44:49,080 --> 00:44:55,720
when he is on time and he is the third best graded QB in the league according to PFF when he gets to

578
00:44:55,720 --> 00:45:02,200
throw from a clean pocket when he is throwing from a pressured pocket or a collapsing pocket his QBR

579
00:45:02,760 --> 00:45:09,960
drops from 80 to 20 so you know you want to get to a under pressure and you know Stephen Ruiz who

580
00:45:09,960 --> 00:45:15,720
is one of my maybe favorite guys who breaks down QB analytics he often jokes and calls

581
00:45:15,720 --> 00:45:21,160
to us progressions performative because the reality is is to a nose where he wants to go with the

582
00:45:21,160 --> 00:45:26,680
ball he's not throwing to a guy he's throwing to a window where because of the speed on this offense

583
00:45:26,680 --> 00:45:32,360
he is 90% sure a guy is going to end up showing up and that has worked a great effect for them this

584
00:45:32,360 --> 00:45:38,120
year but when you can disrupt that timing on those routries and you can get to to enforce them to

585
00:45:38,120 --> 00:45:43,800
hang on to the ball when that timing doesn't exist he cannot process with nearly that level of speed

586
00:45:43,800 --> 00:45:49,480
post snap post snap he is one of the weaker QBs still in the league when he doesn't have those

587
00:45:49,480 --> 00:45:55,160
first two predetermined routes that he can throw to so if you're the bills and you take those away

588
00:45:55,160 --> 00:46:00,360
and you get pressure on him it seems like a simple recipe and maybe we're oversimplifying it with how

589
00:46:00,360 --> 00:46:05,400
easy we're making it seem but if you get pressure and you disrupt those throwing windows play the

590
00:46:05,400 --> 00:46:11,080
windows not necessarily the man which is what this McDermott defense is so good at doing you should

591
00:46:11,080 --> 00:46:15,320
have a really good day hopefully defensively against what is a depleted Miami offense they're

592
00:46:15,320 --> 00:46:20,200
still going to break one I could see Hill still going for like a 30 yard or I could see HN you

593
00:46:20,200 --> 00:46:25,320
know breaking off a long run because that's what this team is built on they're built on the explosives

594
00:46:25,320 --> 00:46:30,920
but if you can force them otherwise to matriculate down the field with where they're at right now

595
00:46:30,920 --> 00:46:35,960
schematically and personnel wise I think I think the advantage goes to the bill's defense which is

596
00:46:35,960 --> 00:46:40,440
now something to say a lot against the Miami offense well and I think too that the Buffalo

597
00:46:40,440 --> 00:46:44,120
Bill's defense has been doing something in the past few weeks or even probably half the season

598
00:46:44,680 --> 00:46:48,760
in great measure and that's population to the football you have to have that in this situation

599
00:46:48,760 --> 00:46:53,240
and good things happen when you get a lot of bodies around that Terrell I'm sorry Christian

600
00:46:53,240 --> 00:47:00,200
Benford strip out bumble against the the Patriots tight end you know in the first quarter that was

601
00:47:00,200 --> 00:47:05,560
that was purely just an effort play because that player was wrapped up and he showed up populated

602
00:47:05,560 --> 00:47:10,200
the football had nothing else to do other than yeah maybe I'll try for a fumble and got it right and

603
00:47:10,200 --> 00:47:15,240
so um that's the kind of thing that I hope that we can see with the bill's defense on this in this

604
00:47:15,240 --> 00:47:20,760
matchup as well um and count you know counterpoint kind of flipping back to the other matchup this

605
00:47:20,760 --> 00:47:25,560
Miami defense is not as good at tackling they're one of the poorer tackling defenses in the league

606
00:47:25,560 --> 00:47:30,520
and so when players have challenged them you know and they have good yards after contact

607
00:47:30,520 --> 00:47:34,840
that Miami defense has not been good at that so the bills need to be excellent at it they need to

608
00:47:34,840 --> 00:47:40,200
to be good and tackling sure and tackling um not miss tackles because that's like you said what

609
00:47:40,200 --> 00:47:46,280
you know how how Miami makes a take is by breaking open explosive plays causing people problems and

610
00:47:46,280 --> 00:47:51,320
it kind of long and late downs um and so hopefully that's you know something that bills can take care

611
00:47:51,320 --> 00:47:57,560
of and like you said pressure um and like I said population of the football and I'm really excited

612
00:47:57,560 --> 00:48:03,960
to see what happens with the interior pressure for the bills at Oliver has been playing out of

613
00:48:03,960 --> 00:48:09,720
his mind the past four or five weeks and I hope that that continues on on a long playoff run because

614
00:48:09,720 --> 00:48:15,160
he is he's definitely making the bills look smart for for that extension um he's gonna end this year

615
00:48:15,160 --> 00:48:20,680
I think the 14th or 17th highest paid interior defensive tackle but he's gonna probably end

616
00:48:20,680 --> 00:48:26,360
statistically in the top five um in the league and so it's it's good money right that's a good value

617
00:48:26,360 --> 00:48:31,720
um and so seeing interior pressure like you said you know when we kind of started off the Miami

618
00:48:31,720 --> 00:48:36,360
Dolphins don't they think they have one or two I think they have two of their preferred five starters

619
00:48:36,360 --> 00:48:42,440
on offensive line and the biggest you know void of talent is in the interior the center Lee and

620
00:48:42,440 --> 00:48:48,520
Meikernberg had his first start of his entire life as a center against the bills and I think it showed

621
00:48:48,520 --> 00:48:54,120
up right like we got there was pressure on two or early in the in the middle of that pocket um and

622
00:48:54,120 --> 00:48:58,040
he's improved over the course of the year of course but then he was out for injury and is just now

623
00:48:58,040 --> 00:49:03,560
coming back and so they're going to have you know a backup center they're gonna have a backup guard

624
00:49:03,560 --> 00:49:08,520
their other guard Robert Hunt who is a preferred starter is playing but again coming off of an

625
00:49:08,520 --> 00:49:14,760
injury so this will be his first game back is likely to play and so there's vulnerabilities there

626
00:49:14,760 --> 00:49:19,240
and you know and and you know they do have two of their five preferred starters on the tackles

627
00:49:19,240 --> 00:49:24,600
but one of those is Terran Armstead who is they got to wheel his corpse out and like rejuvenate him

628
00:49:24,600 --> 00:49:29,800
every time to just to play like he's 38 years old he's had a long storied successful career he's

629
00:49:29,800 --> 00:49:36,440
been an amazing tackle in this league but the thought that he can you know shut down a japanese

630
00:49:36,440 --> 00:49:43,560
for 30 snaps is like less likely right like he has some issues of mobility he's got knees

631
00:49:43,560 --> 00:49:48,120
shoulders ankles you know all things going on he's kind of dragging these injuries behind him every

632
00:49:48,120 --> 00:49:54,520
week um and so yeah I think the pressure uh disrupting the windows making sure that two of

633
00:49:54,520 --> 00:49:58,760
moved to a second read because I agree with you he's not a second reaction thrower he is uh you

634
00:49:58,760 --> 00:50:04,440
know read it probably pre-snap no exactly where he wants to hit hit that that connection point hits

635
00:50:04,440 --> 00:50:09,720
the connection point or doesn't rarely makes a mistake or throws an interception um and if the

636
00:50:09,720 --> 00:50:13,560
bills can kind of close down those connection points with good film study and knowing where he

637
00:50:13,560 --> 00:50:18,360
would like to hit them with the ball um I think this could be a long day for the Miami offense

638
00:50:18,360 --> 00:50:23,560
I'm excited for that I want to see the bill's defense show up and show out and I've been of

639
00:50:23,560 --> 00:50:29,000
the opinion kind of talking in the broadsco with other you know friends and bills chats things

640
00:50:29,000 --> 00:50:36,360
like that Dan that if the bills head into this game and the jaguars have won and it's a win or

641
00:50:36,360 --> 00:50:42,840
you are out uh scenario I think that's when we see the best game from the bills I think that if

642
00:50:42,840 --> 00:50:46,200
they have it same same as the dolphins having it in the back of their mind that the worst they can

643
00:50:46,200 --> 00:50:52,040
be as a six I don't actually love the bills playing this game within the back of their mind oh if we

644
00:50:52,040 --> 00:50:59,160
blues were still in right like I prefer to see a a desperate team because I think that's the only

645
00:50:59,160 --> 00:51:05,240
way you match the energy of Miami at home after being embarrassed also has the stakes on the

646
00:51:05,240 --> 00:51:09,720
line of a two or a six seed and home field advantage in the playoffs and then also has the

647
00:51:09,720 --> 00:51:14,120
stakes that like I think that this is the part that is you know maybe not talked about as much

648
00:51:14,120 --> 00:51:19,800
the bills are their boogeyman the shaman term is like 11 and two against the the dolphins in in his

649
00:51:19,800 --> 00:51:25,560
tenure and josh allen has completely roasted them and in his games he's had offensive player

650
00:51:25,560 --> 00:51:31,560
the week five times in like you know less than 12 times seeing them so I think that the bills

651
00:51:31,560 --> 00:51:37,560
have the ex will need a little bit extra juice because even an injury depleted even a you know

652
00:51:37,560 --> 00:51:43,640
we still have the six seed dolphins team is going to have some motivation from the fact that this

653
00:51:43,640 --> 00:51:48,440
is this is the team that we probably set out in the beginning of the year to say we're going to

654
00:51:48,440 --> 00:51:55,880
take the division from these Buffalo bills because they have you know victimized us so many times

655
00:51:55,880 --> 00:52:00,680
so hard for so many years there's some I think there's some added motivation there that the

656
00:52:00,680 --> 00:52:06,680
bills can't necessarily match because they're the bully in the situation it's you know the revenge

657
00:52:06,680 --> 00:52:11,960
aspect of it I think is more in the dolphins favor than it is for the bills and it's the kind of

658
00:52:11,960 --> 00:52:17,400
thing too where it's like you know the dolphins you know replace the the ravens logo with a bill

659
00:52:17,400 --> 00:52:22,360
logo and then take out some of the aggression they have from being embarrassed on national TV last

660
00:52:22,360 --> 00:52:28,120
week in this match up against the bills and so those are my kind of you know thoughts about how

661
00:52:28,120 --> 00:52:35,000
it's going to go and how it could go with extra motivation added juice for this team and and

662
00:52:35,000 --> 00:52:43,240
things we'd like to see. Speaking of things we'd like to see JJ how about we see what we think our

663
00:52:43,240 --> 00:52:47,400
score predictions for this are going to be what do you say? All right let's do it. All right

664
00:52:47,400 --> 00:52:53,880
predictions sure to go wrong I got this game 24 21 bills I know a lot of folks are expecting a

665
00:52:53,880 --> 00:53:00,760
high flying high scoring game but it's tough for me to think that the bills have just been sitting

666
00:53:00,760 --> 00:53:08,600
on this uber dynamic super effective passing game under Brady since the buy I mean since the buy JJ

667
00:53:08,600 --> 00:53:15,320
Josh Allen's completion percentage is under 60 60 percent it's 58.3 and I know he's had nine total

668
00:53:15,320 --> 00:53:21,640
touchdowns since the buy but six are rushing only three are passing he's averaging under a passing

669
00:53:21,640 --> 00:53:30,280
touchdown each game since the buy in this Joe Brady offense I would love to think that the bills

670
00:53:30,280 --> 00:53:34,920
are going to put another 40 burger on the on this Dolphins defense and Josh is going to throw for

671
00:53:34,920 --> 00:53:40,760
five TDs but I think what is more reasonable is that the bills figure some stuff out Gabe Davis

672
00:53:40,760 --> 00:53:46,280
has a solid game stuff on digs has a solid game and overall you feel good about where this offense

673
00:53:46,280 --> 00:53:53,160
can go heading into the postseason so I'm going to go 24 21 bills great no I like that prediction

674
00:53:53,160 --> 00:54:00,600
I similarly think it's going to be a very close game I think that we might see the bills first 31

675
00:54:00,600 --> 00:54:05,880
just because of all the injuries on the you know the dolphins defense is very depleted the bills

676
00:54:05,880 --> 00:54:11,880
might look better than they actually should against this team in this situation and so I'm going to go

677
00:54:11,880 --> 00:54:22,360
31 27 bills and I think that it's a 27 to 24 game with the dolphins leading in the last two minutes

678
00:54:22,360 --> 00:54:27,960
which you know everybody have your cardiologist cardiologist on speed dial because like I said

679
00:54:27,960 --> 00:54:35,000
you know 31 27 bills and I think that the dolphins are 27 to 24 in the fourth quarter with two minutes

680
00:54:35,000 --> 00:54:41,480
or less to go and this is an opportunity for Josh Allen to show his stuff and shine and show up you

681
00:54:41,480 --> 00:54:48,200
know in a way that only Josh Allen can with the game winning drive for a touchdown so that 31 27

682
00:54:48,200 --> 00:54:54,040
bills god I hope you know they pull this one out because it would be sweet to be in at playoffs

683
00:54:54,040 --> 00:54:59,240
where the only team higher seated than you is the outstanding Baltimore Ravens and you don't

684
00:54:59,240 --> 00:55:06,120
necessarily need to worry about them until an AFC championship I totally agree all right JJ how

685
00:55:06,120 --> 00:55:13,640
about some props I got one on offense one on defense first on offense Josh Allen over under

686
00:55:14,360 --> 00:55:21,160
two and a half passing touchdowns in this game so he has not gone over two passing touchdowns

687
00:55:21,160 --> 00:55:27,880
since that Philly game so as we established has not had a multiple passing TD game since the buy

688
00:55:27,880 --> 00:55:34,360
so is this the game where Josh Allen remembers that he owns the Miami Dolphins and goes over

689
00:55:35,720 --> 00:55:39,720
yeah I'm gonna smash the over on that one I think he gets he gets more than two my score prediction

690
00:55:39,720 --> 00:55:45,240
of 31 total points would indicate that he needs to do some stuff so yeah I think the bills you

691
00:55:45,240 --> 00:55:51,080
know bills find some passing juice against this this team and he goes over two and a half yep you

692
00:55:51,080 --> 00:55:55,880
yeah yeah I agree I think it's gonna be over I think he'll throw three and I think those will be the

693
00:55:55,880 --> 00:56:00,600
only three touchdowns the bills have in this particular game nice all right and then you

694
00:56:00,600 --> 00:56:06,520
want to do yours yeah I'll do my offensive my offensive one is Dalton concaid over 100 yards

695
00:56:06,520 --> 00:56:13,720
receiving ooh I'm gonna take the under okay only because again I just I don't know I don't know

696
00:56:13,720 --> 00:56:19,240
what Brady wants to do in this passing game I don't know who he wants to prioritize I don't

697
00:56:19,240 --> 00:56:24,520
know what level of the field he's picking to exploit he's been so good in the run game

698
00:56:24,520 --> 00:56:30,680
of identifying where teams are weak and just relentlessly twisting on that weakness I haven't

699
00:56:30,680 --> 00:56:37,240
seen that in the passing game yet so I hope I'm on the Hopium pipe for 100 because that would mean

700
00:56:37,240 --> 00:56:42,760
that he sees the same weaknesses in the middle of this Miami defense that we do but again I

701
00:56:42,760 --> 00:56:46,920
haven't seen enough proof of concept in a small sample size to say that that he'll do that so I'm

702
00:56:46,920 --> 00:56:51,720
gonna take under I think in Cape probably as a decent game but I'm not gonna say over 100 yards

703
00:56:51,720 --> 00:56:58,120
okay yeah that's fine um you got a defensive prop what is it yeah wait what's your overunder

704
00:56:58,120 --> 00:57:04,920
on that oh um I'm over you're over oh I'm all the way over I think that I yeah no I want to see

705
00:57:04,920 --> 00:57:10,200
I want to see Dalton concaid like I want to see him like slam some of the the doors on these uh

706
00:57:10,200 --> 00:57:14,760
you know rookie receiving records and things like that and rookie tight end for the bill stuff that

707
00:57:14,760 --> 00:57:20,040
he owned to firmly stamp his his way into the league as a you know outstanding offensive weapon

708
00:57:20,040 --> 00:57:25,240
for this team yeah for sure all right uh here's the next one I got for you Leonard Floyd who'd

709
00:57:25,240 --> 00:57:30,680
cash in on a two million dollar contract incentive needs one and a half sacks this game uh Leonard

710
00:57:30,680 --> 00:57:37,000
Floyd over under one and a half sacks will he get it oh my gosh I'm gonna say over because that's a

711
00:57:37,000 --> 00:57:41,800
heck of a motivator and I think that you could see it's funny because like I don't I don't care

712
00:57:41,800 --> 00:57:46,760
I want what it takes to motivate you to to sacks Leonard Floyd go get it my friend that's what I'm

713
00:57:46,760 --> 00:57:51,080
saying I'm going I'm going over over that as well he deserves it he's had such a great season for

714
00:57:51,080 --> 00:57:57,960
this team um absolutely all right I've got one yeah my one defensive uh prop rasul duglass over

715
00:57:57,960 --> 00:58:05,560
under 1.5 turnovers wow so he's done that twice is a yes he's done it twice in six weeks he's done

716
00:58:05,560 --> 00:58:10,760
it twice so so we're saying that almost half of his games is above bill bill you will turn over

717
00:58:10,760 --> 00:58:18,200
multiple turnover games um man I'm so tempted to hit the over but I'm I'm gonna say under I'm

718
00:58:18,200 --> 00:58:23,960
gonna say under I just I get their injury depleted and I be on I may be on an island with this I just

719
00:58:23,960 --> 00:58:30,920
have too much respect for Tua and the way that team plays I think Tua is a good quarterback yeah

720
00:58:30,920 --> 00:58:36,440
but I also don't think he's a sloppy quarterback either so I so I get he's got 12 turnovers this

721
00:58:36,440 --> 00:58:42,360
season but but that's a lot here's here yeah here's my devil's advocate on that though this is a

722
00:58:42,360 --> 00:58:48,520
for it all type of game and they don't have many options so I think that's it creates a kind of

723
00:58:48,520 --> 00:58:53,160
perfect storm for somebody like rasul duglass who does such good study of knowing where the ball

724
00:58:53,160 --> 00:58:58,120
is going to be and when it's going to be there that if if they're especially if the you know

725
00:58:58,120 --> 00:59:02,520
dolphins are trailing for any portion of this game um there's going to be some snaps where I

726
00:59:02,520 --> 00:59:08,600
think Tua is going to against his better judgment try to make something out of nothing and that's a

727
00:59:08,600 --> 00:59:14,120
that's a ripe ripe for the pickings for rasul duglass so I'm hitting the over all right all

728
00:59:14,120 --> 00:59:18,600
right you've talked me into it I'll take the over to though I don't feel good about it I don't feel

729
00:59:18,600 --> 00:59:24,040
good about it at all but JJ I'll tell you what I do feel good about this pod uh made the technology

730
00:59:24,040 --> 00:59:28,840
gods be on our side as we go to post this thing here before the game for all of you listening at

731
00:59:28,840 --> 00:59:34,760
home like share and subscribe wherever you get your podcast google apple spotify and as always go bills

732
00:59:34,760 --> 01:00:00,680
go bills

733
01:00:04,760 --> 01:00:16,360
yeah