Alright, welcome back to the Buffalo Bread podcast.
JJ here in what could be a surprise, reappearance on the pod.
I've taken remarkably well to dad life thus far and just, you know, not to brag, but my
son is a who arrived last Friday is one and oh as a Bill's fan and Bill's mafia.
He wore his little little bills beanie to the pediatrician for his first visit.
So yeah, the bills had a good weekend and I did as well and we're all back together.
Dan, how are you doing?
I am doing well and I have to say I know I said it a couple of times on the pod as we
were expecting the arrival of Theo.
But again, congratulations to you and your wife, man.
Dadhood definitely suits you.
I have to say.
It rocks.
It does, doesn't it?
There's nothing like it on the face of the earth.
I have probably a third as much sleep as I did prior to dadhood, but I have like an
infinite amount more love.
So it's so fun.
Absolutely.
It is the most joyous sleep deprivation you'll ever experience.
So again, congrats to you too.
And it is great to have you back on the pod, JJ.
I feel like your return at a really opportune time.
The bills who when you departed were in the midst of making their must win out to make
the playoff run have thus far proven to be very, very formidable in their rush to the
postseason here.
So as you know, we have handled our business with the chiefs as we discussed on our reaction
pod a couple of weeks ago.
Dallas was the next in line of victims on the way to the bills making their postseason
push.
And this week we have the lowly but still worrisome LA Chargers.
Like I'm on Bill's Mafia Twitter X, whatever you want to call it.
And now NFL Threads and there is there is conditioned trauma in all of these chains because everyone
is saying the word trap game against LA.
And I have to tell you, it may be arrogant for me to say as we get into it, I just don't
think the Chargers are going to keep up with the steam and we can start to dig into some
of the reasons why.
Well, well, yeah, and we'll certainly get into the reasons why, like you said, but I
think the thing I think the thing that people are afraid of is that this bill's team has
played down to its competition so much this season.
True story.
And we haven't we haven't seen that in prior years with Sean McDermott.
It's actually, you know, there's a few different statistics that point to the bills as double
digit point, you know, favorites in a game tended to win by double digits most of the
time under Sean McDermott in his tenure, especially since Josh Ailin arrived.
But this year has been a bit of an outlier in that they have won narrow victories or
lost narrow losses to teams that otherwise, you know, had, you know, they came in with
it with a huge margin of victory expected or anticipated as favorites, and then played
down, played a crap, turned the ball over to different things.
So that's I think what, you know, the trauma you speak to is real.
I have it a little bit too.
The thing that I keep thinking about it, and it's been said by a number of different content
creators and people on the beat around Buffalo Bills is that if the bills cannot bury this
team and it's not like style points matter, right, like they just need to get the win.
But it would be really concerning for me, looking at a playoff run, if the bills come
in here to an injury depleted team that just had its coach turned over and just gave up
63 points to a backup quarterback on Thursday night football against the Raiders.
If the bills come in here and cannot put this team away in a way that makes it, you know,
look easy, then that that's concerning for how they are going to travel when it comes
to playoff time because that, you know, it's likely they're getting in as a wild card.
The division is still on the table, possibly.
But really, it's, you know, how do you play against teams when you're out of your element?
Because that couple is victory was at home where the bills have played remarkably better.
Even the Chiefs game, they have not played well on the road other than the commanders,
you know, in the first four weeks of the season.
So we'll we'll see.
I think that you're right.
There's definitely tones of a trap game.
And with a new coaching staff, you never know what you're going to get.
It's just such a talent depleted roster in Los Angeles.
And you know, quarterback who's starting his second game and has four fumbles in the two
games or starting a second game has played in three games, has four fumbles across the
previous two games.
Sean McDermott also has a remarkably strong record against quarterbacks with less than,
you know, three or four starts.
Your point on McDermott's success against UNQB is as well taken.
And I think an added layer to that this season is how this defense is now being schemed.
I was in person for the Dallas game, and I had a chance to lay eyes on how the defense
was playing.
Now, keep in mind, we're basically down to like Keanu Reeves and the replacements like
level of players.
Don't get me wrong, these are these are pro caliber players, but we're rolling out at
a lot of positions are backups backups and linebacking core and the secondary.
Micahyde not available for this game, AJ Epineza for this game.
And it didn't matter against a really, really good offense.
And a lot of it has to do with the pre snap looks.
The McDermott is scheming up and that these players for as well coached as they are are
executing to perfection.
They're confusing veteran QBs like Dak Prescott and Patrick Mahomes on a regular basis pre
to post snap.
That is going to have a compounding impact on what it does to a young and experienced
QB like Easton Stick.
To me, JJ, as long as this defense regardless of the personnel they run out doesn't take
their foot off the gas when it comes to these pre snap looks and some of the aggression
that they're playing with at the line of scrimmage.
This sets up to be a pretty long day for these these LA chargers.
Well, and especially if you look at the pressure rate when it comes to the bill's defense is
still super high and we have enough data now from the season to, you know, make some inferences
about how capable they are without even a, you know, reasonable level of on Miller play.
It's been really nice and Easton sticks.
All the snaps he's ever played, he has a abysmal QBR against pressure.
And so I think there's great opportunities here.
You know, they turned over five times against the Raiders, which really inflated that score.
And it was what it was 63 to 10 or 63 to three and like the start of the fourth quarter.
It was 42 nothing at half time.
Oh yeah.
Yeah.
So I mean, it was embarrassing.
Yeah.
And you know, that's that's getting fired territory for sure.
And I don't expect the bills to do that because I do believe there's a bounce, you know, the
teams get energy from the fact that sometimes they're playing for more now than they were
before the coach, you know, if they don't believe in what the coach is selling, they
can maybe believe in themselves and they have pride and they got worked on national TV.
So I expect to see them come out with a little bit more fire, but I'll tell you right now,
if the bills are able to get up early and set the tone of that game, especially the veterans
who have nothing to play for without a, you know, playoff birth in their future are going
to be looking at, you know, tickets to Cabo on the sidelines because it's it's time to
to move on and turn the page, especially those with expiring contracts.
They're not going to want to get hurt.
They're going to lay it on the line just for pride alone.
So you know, I don't want to say anything, you know, cast aspersions about the level
of commitment or work that Los Angeles Chargers players are going to want to make.
I just think that after seeing what the bills did against the Dallas Cowboys, how they came
up, you know, showed up against the chiefs.
This is a team that has shown better focus and they've shown better, you know, want in
these games.
And I think that they bring it to LA because without winning out, the division is completely
off the table in my mind.
They're, you know, two games behind the dolphins, they have to have the dolphins lose at least
one if they have any dream of getting the division off of them, and that means that week 18 is
for the division because if they finish with a tide record and they sweep the dolphins,
they get, you know, they get the division and that, you know, seed into the playoffs.
So I think they know that they need it.
I think they're going to want it.
I think we're going to see inspired play.
I think we're going to see the things that you're saying about pressure on on Easton
stick and the, you know, the disguising of coverage, the rotating of safeties late, the
making the pre snap and post snap picture different for him.
All of those things wreak havoc on a young QB and why McDermott has had such success.
And then on top of that, when you're only, you know, receiving targets for the, the chargers
are, you know, Jalen Geithen, Joshua Palmer, Quentin Johnson is a rookie who has been pretty
poor.
He's never show a separation, has a lot of physical gifts, but doesn't really, you know,
doesn't really use them in any real way.
And catch the ball.
Yeah.
Catch the ball.
Yeah.
It's been a disappointment in a lot of ways.
So really you're looking at, you know, Austin Neckler, who I have so much respect for is
amazing, but is having a little bit of a down, yeah, a little bit of a down year.
Gerald Everett is a good tight end.
Donald Parham has shown some things as a young tight end, but that's not a lot.
They do not have a lot of, you know, weapons.
And again, this bill's team with enough of a sample size now on the front four with pressure
is I think they're going to show some things and really get Easton sticking in a bad position
as they go through this game.
And I think it's going to be tough for the chargers to really get anything going on offense.
And so that leaves it to the, the bills offense, if the defense can do their job to really
make some hay and we've seen so many games this year when the bills were in kind of that
slump where the defense showed up and showed out and then the offense pitifully left that
let them down.
And so we've changed coordinators.
It's looked a lot better with Brady 30 plus points in two of their three games under him.
Three, actually three of their four games.
Yeah.
And with the only, you know, one short is the chiefs game and they still had a winning
effort there.
It gets a good defense.
I don't know, man, I think it's, I feel good about it, but I understand the shared trauma
that's existing out there.
I do too.
And, and as we were kind of doing our, our preseason examination of the schedule, where
could some trap games be, where could some trouble spots be for the bills?
I think everyone pointed to this stretch here at the end of the season where it was going
to go Eagles, chiefs, Cowboys, chargers, Patriots, then dolphins.
Everyone expected most of those teams to be good and expected the Patriots also to be
better than they have ultimately ended up.
But if you had told me preseason, we were going to be facing at the end of the year
in LA and Austin Eckler led offensive attack with Justin Herbert under center.
I would have said this was going to be a trouble game, but the reality is is Herbert
is hurt.
The season for the, the LA Chargers has not gone in the direction they hoped it would
and Austin Eckler is having a down year.
And not only is he having a down year, this is a team that over the past three years has
sunk a boatload of calories, calorie salary cap space into both sides of the line.
And JJ, the LA Chargers are losing the battle on the trenches game in and game out.
This is a team with a pass block win rate that is 19th in the league.
Yet their salary cap hit for that offensive line, they've got a couple of productive rookie
contracts on there, but their salary cap hit is top third in the league.
And this is a pass rush win rate that is 25th in the league.
So Eckler is having a down year, but he is getting zero help from the slide.
And then on the other side of the ball, this team is 29th and 21st in those similar defensive
splits and pass rush win rate and run stop win rate.
This is a team where the investment in draft capital and in salary cap has not paid off
to any great effect.
But that coin over to the bills, and those are two units over the course of the past
few years, you and I have been very critical of the offensive line and the defensive line.
JJ, it is remarkable to me, the amount of consistency in the trenches that the bills
are producing day in and day out.
And the zenith of that may have very well been that Cowboys game where they physically
dominated on both sides of the ball in the trenches.
What should have been I want to say superior competition, but definitely competition that
was to their level in my opinion.
And the bills clearly were heads and tails, the better unit on the defensive line and
the offensive line.
With regard to the offensive line, a lot of that has to do with health and continuity,
which the bills have been very lucky to have.
But JJ, it is phenomenal what this team is doing on the defensive side of the ball.
When you think about, as you mentioned, the under production of on Miller, the injuries
that this unit has suffered now to Phillips, but also epinezza throughout the course of
the season.
We know we lost to Juan Jones on that line as well.
The fact that there has been such a minimal slip in play from this defensive line speaks
volumes to the effort that the guys on the roster that are left are still putting out
there and also to the coaching acumen of one Sean McDermott, who has been under fire the
past few weeks, but deserves a ton of credit for the consistency that that line is playing
with.
Well, yeah, I think that's a great point to kind of like, you know, get out some some
some of my like, summary thoughts like we're far enough in the week that the Cowboys game
is a little bit in the distance.
James Cook, you know, AFC play offense player of the week with his first performance, I
think again, you've seen, you know, people have talked about it's now an offense that
doesn't just need Josh Allen to put on the Cape to win.
And we've been talking about that for years now, we need a different component.
And I agree with you, the the place where this all started was upfront in the offensive
and defensive lines.
And I also agree that Sean McDermott deserves a lot of credit for getting a lot out of a
defense that on paper is going to be a little bit older, a little bit slower than many of
the competition it faces, but has found a way scheme wise to shut down some of these attacks
and some excellent attacks with the Eagles, the Chiefs, the Cowboys games they've either
played incredibly close or one outright.
And so we've seen amazing things there.
He made Dak Prescott look pedestrian because of the ability they had to kind of rotate
coverage and change the pre snapped to post snap look.
They did some more man and they also had a lot more kind of single high safety trying
to close the middle of the field, which really stymied Dak Prescott's looks.
And I think the biggest thing is like you couldn't look at that game film look at that
game back and say that, you know, the Buffalo Bills had an extremely, you know, incredible
coverage game where they had an extremely incredible pass rushing game.
What they had was a defensive game where everything worked in unison in a really good way.
And they basically erased what the Cowboys wanted to do to them.
So it was all scheme based.
I think that I mean, on both sides of the game, on both sides of the ball, this was
probably the first game of the season I saw from this Buffalo Bills unit where I felt like
our coaches on the bill side completely destroyed the opposing coaches from the position of
putting their players in a place to succeed.
I mean, Joe Brady, you know, planned some some different run looks.
And then basically they saw the box counts and the looks that they wanted to run against
and they just kept kept hitting that button and Dallas did not sub out their, you know,
205 pound diminutive linebacker.
They just, you know, the bill just ran directly at him the entire game.
And so that was, you know, that was smart scheming and that was the coaches winning.
And then like, you know, to your point on the defensive side, Sean McDermott basically
just came up with a way to, you know, identify where Dak Prescott wanted to hit CD lamb,
take away that as an option with some of those bracketed coverage is that they highlighted
on the broadcast a number of times where Terrell Bernard or Tyrell Dodson in some cases was
cutting underneath the CD lamb route.
And then he had safety on the top and a corner stuck to him.
And it's just like, what are you going to do in that situation?
You're basically only option to throw to CD lamb was to throw into triple coverage.
And for that, he had, you know, a couple of decent gains, but the one gain he had on a
nice underneath route that he turned into a really excellent run after the catch in
the first half was the exact same play that Christian Benford showed, you know, excellent
wherewithal peeled off of his route on his coverage and was sitting in the hole that that
ball ended up sailing into.
That's why it looked like such an easy pick.
So yeah, I think that the scheme, the scheme in this game was the piece that kind of show
the star that's shown the brightest for me.
And it was it was a great evolution, I think of Brady on the offensive side of the ball,
not just with his scheming, but his play sequence play call sequencing.
You and I in the reaction pod were really critical to to of Joe Brady for how he kind
of let Spagnolo teach him a lesson, right?
Master versus Pad 1, so to speak.
And I was a little bit worried heading into this game that Dan Quinn, who is also a wildly
defensive coordinator in his own right.
If Brady didn't make an adjustment was going to have similar success.
But Brady to his credit, saw what the Dallas defense was giving him saw that they did not
have either a schematic or personnel counter punch to any of that.
And he's simply stuck with what worked.
And a lot of the post game since the Dallas game, Brady was very candid.
He was like it was not our intention to run James Cook as many times as we did in that
game.
But we saw how effective it was.
We saw Dallas was encountering it.
So he figured why go away from something that was that was working.
And that to me is the key difference is Joe Brady is a play caller versus Ken Dorsey as
a play caller, not to beat the Dorsey thing to death.
But you and I were critical of Dorsey, either stubbornly, stubbornly so sticking to the
scheme, where he would try to target funnel or force targets to digs or to Davis, even
when it clearly wasn't working, or his failure to adjust what the defense was giving him
mid game.
That has not been a problem for Brady outside of that Kansas City game.
So I think what we're seeing on the offensive side of the ball is a coordinator who knows
keenly what the weakness of the defense is.
And he's willing to press on that weakness relentlessly until that team counters.
So I thought Brady did a great job in the scheme.
And then yeah, McDermott, I mean, dude, we played a ton of dime in that Dallas game.
We basically stayed in dime.
A lot of that was because the lead that the offense got the team out to, we knew that
running the ball for Dallas who are not a great running team to begin with was not going
to be a factor.
But we were able to play in a schematic set that was comfortable for us that allowed us
to do a lot of the things pre snap that we wanted to do, but also play the coverages
that we wanted to as well.
I mean, honestly, this looked a lot like the Miami game and the way that we bracketed and
we played we played cover six over CD lamb, we were doing the same or Tyree kill, we were
doing the same thing with CD lamb with a few added wrinkles to it.
So props to this coaching staff for, and I'm going to say it, out coaching the opposing
team, which is something as Bill's fans, we have not been able to say a whole lot.
And JJ, I think that's a good segue to get into the LA game, because this should be another
game as we have already alluded to.
We're from a personnel standpoint, but also from a coaching standpoint with LA being
a team that is in true transition as an organization.
This should be a game that we have a lot of advantages on on both sides of the ball.
Yeah, I agree.
I think that, you know, when you look at the LA Chargers, they are, you know, they're
there, it seems like every year they're suffering from some sort of terrible injury luck.
And this year is no different.
Keenan Allen out for this game, their best wide receiver, Justin Herbert, of course,
out for the year with a broken finger on his throwing hand.
Mike Williams, who is a override receiver, that's like basically all I can say about
him.
It's been sort of disappointing his entire career because he's either injured or just
ineffective.
But then there's flashes of this amazing down the field passcatcher, he's out.
He's on IR.
You know, their backup center is on IR, and their starting center Corey Linsley is who
is probably one of their best offensive linemen.
He's out, so they're playing a third string center on defense.
You know, they're down their left cornerback.
Dean Leonard is out.
So and they're of course, you don't want to bury the lead.
Joey Bosa, their excellent pass rusher is down.
So they have to Lee to pull out to who is a rookie and a person who's shown some flashes
here and there.
And then of course, Khalil Mack, fellow UB alum and late in his career, but still chasing
and I think he's got like 12 or 13 sacks or something ridiculous.
So but he had seven in one game.
So he gets them in bunches and he has a number of games without a single sack.
So when you look at this team, also Derwin James, good safety has had a down year doesn't
seem to know what he's doing is because he's playing all the positions of defense because
they don't have enough talent elsewhere.
So he's he's sometimes roaming the deep middle.
Sometimes he's in the box.
Sometimes he's playing slot corner.
Sometimes he's playing like sort of a heavy nickel linebacker role and he's not seeming
to be able to do any of them very well, which is tough to watch because he's an excellent
player has been his whole career.
But yeah, it's it's a team that has been, you know, racked my injuries.
They also, you know, for Brandon Staley during his tenure, they'd never seem to settle on
any one scheme.
They're a base three, four defense, but they don't do any particular three, four over three,
four under alignment.
Well, they don't tend to be a predominant cover two, cover three zone team or press man team.
Like they just seem to never have an identity and get roasted regardless of their talent.
They have some talent on defense.
So you had some stats on on kind of where they are in DBOA EPA, right?
Oh, yeah, absolutely.
So you know me, I always bring these numbers to the table.
So here it is, the comparison of our beloved Buffalo Bills to the lowly L.A. chargers heading
into the game on Saturday.
So currently in passing EPA and rushing EPA, the bills are fourth and third respectively.
So to know that is a bit of a dip.
One rank each from the Dorsey days since Brady has taken over.
But I think with these numbers, illustrate JJ, A is that there is no one single number
that tells us how good a team is no matter how much we would like that.
But two, there is a difference between efficiency and effectiveness.
And under Brady, I think it's hard to argue this bills team is not more effective under
Brady.
The chargers on the other hand, 11th and passing EPA, but obviously we've only had one week
of Eastern stick that number is very likely to come down.
A lot of that is still Herbert and his influence on the offense before he got injured.
And then rushing EPA, 29th in the league.
It's a negative score for these chargers when they try to rush the ball.
So what that means for the folks listening at home is that basically every time the
chargers hand the ball off, they are theoretically costing themselves points on the scoreboard.
When you get to the defensive side of the ball, passing defense EPA, the bills are still
a top 10 unit.
Again, a credit to this coaching staff and McDermott in particular.
And then rushing defense EPA per play, very similar to what it's been all season.
They're sitting right squarely in the middle of the league at 15th, not giving up anything,
not gaining anything.
The rush defense is serviceable at this point to be but to be expected when the bills are
playing so many nickel and dime looks.
The chargers on the other hand, 28th and both passing defensive DPA and rushing EPA as well.
So this is a charger team with not a lot of bright spots throughout the course of the
year.
And JJ again, I don't want to speak too confidently, but it feels like at least on paper, this
game should not be a competitive game for too long.
Well and that's the hope too is I think that, you know, as I said on the front, you know,
when we were kind of previewing what we thought about this game, you know, McDermott very
good about rookie quarter or very good against rookie quarterbacks.
McDermott actually as the play caller is something we haven't seen against a rookie
quarterback or a young quarterback since maybe Sam Howell this season.
And so there's an opportunity here for the Buffalo Bills to show, you know, what a Sean
McDermott called defense can do differently.
Because up to this point, all those statistics about how good he is about against young quarterbacks
were from a Leslie Frazier called D for the most part.
And so I think that this is this will be an opportunity for McDermott to kind of put his
stamp on one of these games where he shows, you know, how his scheme can really stymie
and stifle somebody who hasn't seen a lot of looks in the NFL or played at that NFL level.
I worry a little bit about this game.
Of course, you know, the trap notion are the bills going to show up flat, those sorts of
things.
But also Easton Stick is like a fantastic athlete.
He's not a great quarterback when it comes to throw pocket passing, but he is incredibly
fast and had, you know, something like 2800 rushing yards in his college career.
So I worry a little bit about that for the same reason that teams worry about facing
the Buffalo Bills and Josh Allen running the ball is when you come out when it comes down
to box counts and you add your quarterback into the rushing attack, you get an 11 on 11
game.
If your quarterback is just handing the ball off, it's 10 on 11 and you have an advantage
on defense.
And so there's a chance, you know, I don't really love the offensive line for the Chargers.
I don't think that the wide receivers are exceptionally good at blocking, but there's
a chance that they dial up some of the QB run stuff with Easton Stick to try to lean
into him as a weapon.
And we'll see, you know, I'm trying to think of a, who's the guy in the Saints that they,
you know, like quarterback tight end.
Taysome Hill.
Yeah, Taysome Hill.
See some Taysome Hill type package stuff and because they're going to, if they want to
win this game, I feel like the Chargers have to pull out every stop.
I don't think that their defense is going to be able to slow down the bill's offense.
So they're going to need to try some things, some wild things.
Yeah, absolutely.
And you want to flip to the offensive side of the ball for the bills and talk a little
bit about that.
I think JJ for me, this is a pick your poison type of thing.
If you're the, if you're the LA Chargers, the passing offense has been, I don't want
to say hibernating the last two games.
It was very effectively schemed away to a large extent against the the chiefs, particularly
in the way that they they took away digs and the Cowboys were committed to it too.
But at some point, these defensive coordinators that the bills are facing are going to have
to make a choice.
Are you going to continue to let the this bill squad chew you up underneath and destroy
you in the run game as you play light boxes to prioritize resources that shutting down
our outside wide receivers, or are you going to eventually reprioritize some of those defensive
players to stopping what the bills are doing?
And that is going to be the pivot point that I'm interested in seeing from Brady, because
if the Chargers, which is they are not a defense like the chiefs that can play multiple, if
the Chargers come out with light boxes, and they are signaling to everyone, we are going
to go ahead and we are going to shut down Davis, we are going to shut down digs, and
we're going to let the bills running backs and Dalton, Kincaid and Dawson knocks beat
us.
That is going to be very telling if it doesn't happen.
Or if the Chargers Chargers adjust mid game and they decide to prioritize more resources
to the middle of the field in the box, it'll be interesting to see how Brady decides to
get digs and Davis involved, because that's something that we haven't seen to great effect
yet.
Davis is not running a lot of creative routes and he is effectively in the Joe Brady era
been a pass blocker.
We saw a lot of targets to digs in that Kansas City chiefs game, but a lot of it were screens,
a lot of it was gimmicky, just stuff that looked like he was very, very forcefully trying
to get digs involved, like he was trying to force the game to him.
We have not seen Brady scheme for these two wide receivers in a way that is more natural
based on what the defense is giving you.
So be very curious to see that if the Chargers decide to prioritize middle of the field and
dumping more players into the box, how digs and Davis then factor into the scheme.
Well, and I think too that that's going to be, some of that is going to be the pride
of the Chargers and the players, the Chargers coaching staff and that sort of thing is
the scheme that they try to elect against this Buffalo Bills team is going to tell you
right away how seriously they want to actually win.
It's possible that they play some younger talent and come out with like, you know, very
vanilla type defensive approach and try to just play their like foundational unit defense.
And I think the bills are going to chew that up no problem.
And so I will be curious to see if this Chargers defense tries to add some wrinkles or tries
to get pressure or tries to hit the Buffalo Bills in some, some weak spots.
Things like maybe lining up Khalil Mack on the inside over Osiris Torrance for a snap
or two.
Things like sending Derwin James and Cleo Mack from the same side because that's something
the Chargers haven't done this season as much.
That seems weird to not do this, but Derwin James is one of the best pass rushing DBs in
the league and they have not used him in that regard like hardly at all.
And so, and it's largely because he's covering up for so many flaws in the back end of that
defense and he'll still have that responsibility.
But you know, if you're a new coaching staff, you might want to just pull all the levers
and all the triggers you can.
And one of them might be Derwin James safety blitzes from either edge, you know, behind
Khalil Mack or opposite Khalil Mack to see if you can make some hat having chaos back
there.
So there are some things that I'm also curious, same as you, does this Buffalo Bills passing
attack get going?
We haven't seen much from any of the wide receivers since Joe Brink took over it hasn't
meant a focus of any of his game plans.
You know, a little bit of clear Khalil Shakur work over the first couple of games of the
Brady era.
But that's not, you know, that seemed more like a reaction by Josh Allen to teams taking
away digs or trying to take away digs.
And Davis having longer developing routes, which has always been a thing with Gabriel
Davis, it's part of the offensive design, they send him over the top.
And so if Josh Allen has any pressure at all, Gabe Davis is basically off the table.
So it's interesting, I think it's tough.
It'll be tough for Gabe Davis to get a second contract that's lucrative.
If he continues to get zero targets, zero catches, no touchdowns.
All right, JJ, are you ready for what we are all here for?
Prediction sure to go wrong.
That's why people keep calling back to hear us make fools of ourselves on the podcast
universe.
All right.
So why don't we start with score?
Where do you sit with the final score?
I see this is going to be sort of disappointing for all the bills mafia out there who are
like, Oh, I want to see a 50 burger.
But I see the bills, even though the Raiders did that, you know, 63 points is obscene.
I see the bills probably putting up 28 or so.
I could see him getting over 30, but I think it's going to be a 28 to 13 type of game.
And I think that the 13 probably comes with a field goal and touchdown in the fourth
frame with a lot of Kyle Allen time.
Interesting.
I listen, I have, I have retraced all of my former missteps in cursing our beloved Buffalo
Bills as they enter a game where they should handily win.
And yet I feel like as I put nonsense and overconfidence into the universe, that somehow
has dragged them back down to reality.
I'm going to say bills 27.
Chargers 10.
I think I think there is going to be an emotional boost, as you mentioned, from a lot of these
Chargers players kind of coming out from under the shadow of the brain and staley era.
And there's been a lot of great stuff written by the athletic and ESPN on how that era came
to an end and what it was like.
And I won't get into too many details on it, but I can tell you that anyone who's worked
in a work culture as the one that is described in the Chargers locker room, there's always
a sense of newfound freedom, independence and an aware with all to do your job.
When leaders of that nature are removed from their positions.
So I do think there's going to be a legitimate boost to this Chargers team.
And I think it gets them a touchdown early on, but I think the bills clamp it down and
do what we know they can do, which is when this game pretty handily.
So I'm going to go 27.
10.
I like it.
I think that I hope and I think that this could be one of those games that has like a
27 13 28 17 type score that feels way less stressful than that score would indicate.
You know what I mean?
Like we've seen a couple of bills games throughout the years where they cover the spread, they
get ahead early and they dominate top to bottom.
But for some reason, a few drives ending, you know, field goals or the opponents have
some long drives that shortens the game and it just really, you know, you're never really
worried about it.
But the score doesn't look like a blowout.
Yep.
Yeah, no, I agree with that.
All right, prop bets.
I've got one for you.
All right.
Over under half a defensive score for the Buffalo Bills.
And I say this with last Thursday's game against the Raiders and the Chargers fully in mind,
where the Raiders were so ready for a lot of the behind the line of scrimmage screens,
the dink and dunk game that they figured the Chargers roll out with a new QB and Eastern
stick at the helm.
He's had a little bit of a longer week to get acclimated to the offense through their
their want to run.
So but it's hard to shake those turns.
It's hard to shake turnovers of that nature.
And I don't think there is a complete regression to the mean for mean for stick.
So I think the bills are going to pull a couple of turnovers.
But the question for you, JJ, is will one of them lead to a score?
Well, I mean, the the predator natural ability of Jack Jones and the Raiders team to grab
the wide receiver screen out of the air believable one handed while in a full kind of leaping
sprint to the end zone was just bananas.
They just knew it was coming.
And I'll say this, I'll qualify my response.
I think a defensive touchdown happens if AJ Epinezza plays.
Oh, batting down some of those lateral passes.
Yeah, absolutely.
Because I do think I do agree with you that there's going to be there's the Chargers probably
only path to victory is going to be trying to get Austin Echler in space.
And so I could see some pitches and some screens and different things like that that put the
ball in into harm's way a little bit.
If the bills come in prepared for them and then on top of that, like I said, and you
know, off the jump, Easton Stick has four fumbles in two games.
So he's not a player who has been shown to have very good ball security.
Yeah, no, I agree.
I agree.
Like I said, it's hard to regress the meme back to the main on turnovers like that in
just one week of extra preparation.
So I've got a prop for you, my friend.
What do you got?
Stefan Diggs 100 yard plus receiving game.
I mean, this feels like it should be the case, right?
Asante Samuel, Jr. solid DB to me, not one that can keep up with Stefan Diggs one on
one.
And even if the Chargers bring a help over the top with James or another member of that
secondary, as you've noted, that that safety duo for LA is having a down year.
James is having a down year.
He seems spread really, really thin.
Now that was under Stanley, who was a head coach who called defensive plays.
So that could very well change for this game.
But if any of the patterns this LA Chargers defensive laid out for us before in our indicative
of this game, I would say digs.
Digs as opposed as was a very weak secondary and has a has a breakout game under Joe Brady.
Love to see it.
I think that's it.
I think that's it for me and my props.
I'd like to see Greg or so have a big game, but I don't know what stat I think that's
going to appear as.
I'm just waiting for him to kind of put a stamp on things because I think it's fine
for him as a first round pick to make a career as a solid run and edge defender who gets
maybe five sacks a year and has occasional impact plays that very much feels like a Tremaine
Edmunds arc, though.
And so I would hope to get more from him as a first round pick.
So hopefully we see a big Greg or so game.
That would be my other prop is, you know, over under half of an impact play, whether
it's tackle for a loss sack, you know, interception, something like that.
But we'll see what happens.
Nice.
Yeah.
I just kind of want to see a healthy Greg or so game.
Like, I feel like we haven't seen that in in a season and a half.
Greg or so playing healthy, playing it at 100 percent, because I think that version
of Greg or so can be a game changer, can be a 10 sack a season guy.
I just I just don't know.
And with his frame being as kind of the unusually large and unwieldy as it is, I just wonder
if we're ever going to see a dude of that size with that kind of flexibility, truly
be healthy and truly be able to hit their ceiling.
But yeah, that is speculation for a minute.
Or another day.
But I agree with you.
I'd love to see a big Greg or so game.
I have one more prop.
Edie BD prop before we end.
Dalton Kincaid over under one and a half drops.
Oh, so yeah.
So he had two drops in the Dallas game and you can blame the weather.
You can blame whatever.
But this is a player who was very sure handed in college.
He has come to the NFL and he has a drop problem.
Now granted, he is catching fireballs from Josh Allen that are basically thrown at him
at point blank range.
But he had two very, very critical drops in that Dallas game.
After the first drop, the bills on the very next offensive series went right back to him
on the first play and I loved it because I was thinking in my head, go back to Kincaid,
get him worked into the game because you need some semblance of a passing threat.
Because at that point, the game was not fully put away.
They go back to him.
I'm like, yes.
And I'm cheering for my seat and I see him drop and I'm like, they should probably not
throw to him again for the rest of the game.
And they didn't.
Right.
So drops are something this kid's got to figure out.
Maybe his injury status has something to do with it, but the drops have been a persistent
problem for him this season.
So over under one and a half drops, JJ.
I'm going to go under.
It was a thumb injury and by all accounts, he has an opportunity to rehab it enough this
week.
But I think that he was kind of in the middle of it with the elements, with the piss missiles
as we like to say on this podcast that Josh Allen whips out there.
I think that it was, you know, there was a lot of factors.
I still trust Kincaid's hands and I think that he has under 1.5 drops this game.
And as we go farther away from the injury, barring another setback with the injury, I
think that he continues to improve that particular factor.
I'm going to go under two, but I'd love to see more consistency.
The beginning of the season was not his fault.
Everything was game plan for him.
But really from week six or seven on, he's been a featured part of the offense and granted
rookie tight ends tend to struggle.
But a lot of it has been poor execution in his part as to why he's at where he's at
right now.
Still having a good year.
Don't get me wrong.
But we expect more from a first round pick that we hope will supplant Gabe Davis should
Davis move on as the number two target for Josh Allen on this offense.
So for sure.
All right, JJ.
That's it.
Welcome to your first podcast as a dad.
I know I've got one tiny like final comment before we close out here.
A scouting report on my son Theo.
Oh, let's hear a combine numbers.
Yeah.
So a one week scouting report that is, you know, it'll matter in the draft in like 21
years and five months.
Not that we're counting.
Yeah.
He's in the 80th percentile.
He's an average, you know, length and weight baby.
But he's in the 80th percentile and head circumference and abdominal girth.
So I think we got maybe a center on our hands.
Oh my God, that would be amazing.
That would be absolutely amazing.
Intelligence and the denseness, I think points to offensive line.
But we'll see.
I agree.
You need smart, girthy people on the line.
Exactly.
May Theo rise to that destiny, sir.
We appreciate that.
Awesome.
Thanks for watching.
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And as always, go bills.
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