Welcome back to the Buffalo Bread podcast.
We are week 12.
There's a bit of a pep in the step of Bill's mafia, because we have an actual Bill's victory.
And not like Bill's over Tampa Bay victory where you're like, I guess they won, or Bill's
over Giants victory where you're like, each didn't deserve to win, but they got one.
This was like a real full blown.
Bill's dominating the opponent looked like a team that could compete for postseason,
you know, excellence.
Josh Allen was having a blast out there.
First time I think we've seen that in a long, long time since the Dolphins game even.
Yeah, a lot of what we thought was wrong with the offense seemed to have been at least marginally
and at least hopefully in a small sample size cured.
The defense was dominant as ever, which was wonderful to see it's not hard against this,
you know, the Jets offense to be dominant, but they were.
And you know, the Bill's cruise to a 32 to six victory, I'm feeling really good.
Dan, where are you at?
I'm happy that we have purged the curse that is Zach Wilson upon this Buffalo Bill's house.
It was nice to see, especially after that opening week game in such wonky, weird, self-destructive
fashion come out and play for the most part, a relatively clean game on both sides of the
ball.
And while there's a lot to digest on the offensive side of the ball, JJ, I was also impressed
with the defensive effort.
And I understand we're grading on a curve because the New York Jets do not have a good
offense in Zach Wilson.
The aforementioned QB that has haunted our dreams for the past three, three and a half
games has been benched, but the Buffalo Bill's defense did a great job of actually turning
the ball over.
And it was amazing to see Rizul Douglas, our trade deadline pickup, who is now fully immersed
in the playbook, really find out ways to exploit this McDermott defensive scheme to his to
his strengths.
Do you AFC defensive player of the week, two picks in a fumble?
To me, there's a lot to talk about about the Bill's offense, offensive side of the game,
but it's hard not to feel hopeful with Rizul Douglas also picking up some production slack
that the injuries on defense left behind.
So all around some really good, really good tidbits to discuss here.
And I mean, we could start there if you want to start Bill's D versus Jets.
Oh, I think it's that's a good place to start.
We can round out with the offense.
And with a brief aside, I think to something that had been missing for a long time was
all three phases of the football team had outstanding showings.
I think that, you know, speaking of kind of exercising demons, the the Jets player who
returned the punt for a touchdown to win the game in overtime week one was the player also
who coughed up the fumble on the very first play of the game.
Gibson, yeah.
Yeah.
So Gibson gives one up to Reggie Gilliam and Quentin Q. Morris.
Reggie Gilliam's hit was the kind of old school NFL football hit that you don't see
often without, you know, laundry littering the field, but he it was clean.
He was strong and pop that ball out to give the ball the bills, the ball right in the
Jets territory, and, you know, we can talk about offense in a minute.
But yeah, I think, you know, starting on the defensive side of the ball, what we saw was
the defensive line was dominant.
These bills defense, even with injuries, even with some things going on the past few weeks,
have looked to turn a corner in terms of stopping the run.
They're less leaky in terms of yards per carry.
They're quite a bit more of reestablishing the line of scrimmage, you know, in the backfield.
And I've liked what I've seen also from Terrell Dodson.
I think that, you know, we were rightly wrong or we were rightly critical of him early in
the season and even last year in, you know, relief of Tremaine Edmonds at times.
But Terrell Dodson looks to be a player who's who's come into his own to understand what
he does best and how to do it best.
Even looked to be pretty solid in coverage at times when he's called on it.
And I think it's probably partially Terrell Dodson having more snaps and getting in the
groove of games and then also I think it's probably Sean McDermott a little bit protecting
his player from the things he knows he'll be weak at.
Not putting Terrell Dodson one on one with Breeze Hall and coverage underneath, but instead
having Terrell Bernard take that assignment and Dodson, you know, having a different route,
you know, a different rule in the zone or something like that.
So I really like the bill's defense.
I think that Ed Oliver continues to be a wrecking ball.
I think that he, you know, he doesn't show up on the stat sheet every week, but every
week he shows up with effort and he proves that he can be contained one on one on that
lot and he must be doubled to not have him all up in the kitchen.
He got his sixth stack sack of the season, which is a career and it earned him $250,000.
If he gets two more this season, he gets a bonus of $500,000 in this country.
Betting on himself.
If only that had happened last season, I would have won our bourbon bet because what did
I say?
I said Oliver was going to lead the team in sacks.
He still won't this year because of Leonard Floyd, who also had a monster game against
the Jets.
Unreal and one of the, you could argue, maybe one of the best being free agent signings
that we've seen in recent memory.
I don't think there is a way to keep Leonard Floyd on this roster and we can talk about
that in the off season, especially with the season.
He's probably going to get a, you know, he's older in his career, but he's probably with
the showing he's putting together this year with the bills.
He's probably going to get like a two to three year, 20 plus mil per year deal.
He's coming out.
Yeah.
He's as a, even if it's just designated pass rusher snaps, kind of how the bills use
him because he's not been an every down defender, but when he's in, it's, it's amazing.
And so yeah, I think the defense looked good.
The front, as I mentioned, was solid and this, you know, that's to be taken a little bit
with the grain of salt.
They were playing against probably four of five jet starters who had no business being
on an NFL field because they, you know, they're down to their third or fourth option at right
tackle.
They had to move a guard to a full time tackle position on the line.
It was, I think their, their Dwayne, it was a Dwayne Brown got injured in the first quarter.
Yeah.
So they lost one of their tackles in the very first quarter and had to shuffle again.
And that was the seventh or eight different lineups that they played with this season.
And I can't imagine, I mean, I think Zach Wilson is a terrible quarterback for some
reason.
He had the bills number for two of three meetings until this one now it's two or four, but,
but he did, you know, he was running for his life brought down what six, five and a half,
six times, six total sacks, six bills that afternoon and 11 separate other hits.
So 17 times he was, you know, put on the ground either for a sack or, or just for, you know,
being beat up.
So, um, I think that that was something to be said, and that's not going to be the case.
We'll get into the preview for the Eagles, but that's not going to be the case this week.
The Eagles interior offensive line is probably one of the best in the entire league.
Their tackles are somewhat gettable, but, uh, but yeah, this Jets Jets offensive line
is really, really bad.
Yeah.
And it, I mean, it, it showed, but here's the thing about the bills.
Yeah.
There's, as we pod, they are tied for second in the league in total sacks, but it has felt
like a lot of those games have come in spurts and fits.
And we've seen this defensive line really struggle against inferior offensive lines
at times.
I'm thinking back to the Giants game is a really good example.
Um, they had ended up having four sacks that game, but it didn't feel like they were impacting
the game in many other ways.
So the fact that they were able to turn it up and I think finally turn it up against
lower level competition, which again, this is something that both sides of the ball have
struggled with through the bills pretty consistently this season to show up for a game for a, a
must win game against a team that is very beatable.
And to show out with that kind of effort on your, on your home turf after a week of turmoil
after firing Ken Dorsey, I think was as much a professional on the field statement as it
was an emotional statement for where this team is right now.
Um, you had mentioned the whole team looked like they're having fun again.
I do.
I don't, I don't know how much of that that does or doesn't have to do with Ken Dorsey.
No one know, no one is going to know, but what's really clear is these bills had a coming,
coming home moment when they realized time was running out and they needed to refine
the brand of football that this team has been known to play in the McDermott era since 2017.
And I think they found it against a, again, listen, a deficient offense, but a really
good defense and a team that is still in the playoff hunt.
So I think it was an important statement for the bills to make a divisional opponent,
a conference opponent, and a dominating win in all three phases of the game was something
that they for sure needed.
Um, you know, JJ, we are in an interesting point with this Buffalo bills defense because
this is the unit we're going to roll out there.
And this unit by average, a just still one of the oldest in the league.
We have quite a few games left and if this team makes it to the post season, um, there's
going to be more, more tread out.
There's going to be less tread on these tires is the effort that we saw from the jets against
the jets on Sunday in your mind, sustainable for the long haul.
And we're going to, we're not going to go into full pregame territory here, but I'm
keeping it at top of mind.
We've got to play an Eagles defense that loves to pound the ball and be physical.
Uh, Dallas Cowboys offense that is really kind of finding its way offensively with
Dak airing it out, but finding more of a run game as well.
Um, even though that team just throws an absurd metrics, all Dallas wants to do is bomb.
Um, you've got the LA charges coming up where their defense is a mess, but it's still just
in Herbert it while there were great flashes against an inferior offense, where there are
things that you saw about this defensive effort that you think are sustainable down the road
for this team as they try to make a playoff run.
I'm going to cheat a little bit because I think the one thing that would be sustainable
is that thankfully knocking on wood for everybody's benefit.
Um, the offense has, has maintained their health.
And I think that this is kind of one of the, you know, the best defense is a good offense
type of analogies is that the defense is greatest skill is their defensive front, that line.
And the line can pin its ears back if, if a team becomes one dimensional, if a team feels
like they have to pass the ball, it gives the, the defense a great fit because I think
that, um, on the front level, I'm confident in this, this line because I don't think it's
the old, you know, it's, it's not the oldest part of the defense.
I think that the thing you worry about is the secondary, the CBs keep going down and
in bunches think that Russell Douglas has stabilized things a little bit, but he has
not, you know, he hasn't had a career that where he's been like Mr. reliable either.
So you worry a little bit about, um, he has some injury history.
So, um, it's really the kind of thing where if the defensive line can stay healthy and
the offense can maintain, you know, somewhat, you know, of, of this momentum of keeping
games, you know, out of reach for the other team, one or two scores up all the time.
I think that that's going to be the trick for an aging defense admittedly to maintain,
um, pressure and to make, you know, make turnovers, that sort of thing.
Cause I think that's what it is.
I think that you saw, you know, in six weeks, the bills hadn't really led by more than one
score at any time in any game.
And once they did, again, it's Wilson, it's Tim bullet, but they were able to put the
opponents in a position where the opponents felt like they had to make something happen.
They couldn't play conservative.
They couldn't, you know, play field position.
And those, those things are going to be the savior for this defense is as dinged up as
they are as slow as they are at times.
Um, and then as old as they.
I do, I do think that the capacity, but I think it all hinges on the offense.
If that makes sense, you know, I think defense has the scheme, it has the bodies to do it,
but they have to play on the terms that are set by the offense.
They play on the opponents terms.
They're going to be failing us.
Just like we saw in all the metrics while the offense was flailing, the defense looked
to be suffering and not, not an elite defense by any measure because they had to play a
game that they were built.
I agree.
I think you are, you're getting to the, the aspect of complimentary football that I hoped
you would.
I think I see, and I see you smiling.
Um, I think complimentary football as McDermott has tried to define has been something to
the effect of the offense needs to slow down its pace because our defense can't be on the
field all the time, which is a true story.
We have talked about this multiple times on the pod.
I think during, during this hellaceous stretch that this team is going to face playing the
Eagles next, then the chiefs, Cowboys, Chargers, Patriots, Dolphins, they're going to need
to redefine that term of complimentary football.
And I agree the offense is going to have to pour points on to keep pressure on opposing
teams to really limit what their playbook, what they can roll out from their playbook.
It is hard to stay committed to the run if you're an LA Chargers team, um, or if you're
a Philadelphia Eagles team, if you're down 14 or 17 points, which is exactly the type
of pressure that this Buffalo Bills offense needs to consistently apply.
So complimentary football, I think redefined as the path going forward, because again,
I agree with you.
There are great things from this defense, albeit against a mediocre opponent and a sub park
UB, but there are things here that I question their sustainability in the long run as well.
Um, you got to hope this team stays healthy, but it seems every week someone else is going
down and I love the adjustment of Poyer in the box.
And you're right, they have done a great job of really eating up opposing teams run games,
although this weekend will be a really big test for them against the Eagles.
Um, sneakily, I think the chiefs might be too, but we can talk about that during the
bi week, but they've done a really good job with it.
But the box, it's, it just still looks really light and you're seeing more competent offenses
because again, the Jets are not one when the bills are bringing that light box or that
dime look specifically attack the pieces on the field, be it Terrell Dodson, be it Dane
Jackson, uh, be it rap deep down the field where he is really struggling on coverage.
It gives more efficient and more effective offenses a better opportunity to attack those
weak spots on the defense.
I think, I think there was a lot to like from this defensive events effort against the Jets,
but I think we've got to grade it on a curve because we're not always going to be playing
Zach Wilson moving forward.
Well, and in fact, we're not going to be playing anybody who's even near Zach Wilson the rest
of the way.
Mac Jones, if he starts Bailey Zappy, I made them both a little better than Zach Wilson.
Yeah, he's bad.
Yeah, he's, he's bad.
And I think that you're skewed, you're skewed a little bit by the good games he had against
the bills versus everyone else.
He looks, you know, far worse than Bailey Zappy or Mac Jones.
But you're what you're saying is like, yeah, do you know who the only quarterback in the
league is to beat the Philadelphia Eagles this season?
I know Zach Wilson.
Well that's the thing.
That's the mystery of Zach Wilson.
Like I don't think this guy is a starting NFL quarterback, but he has this weird kind
of like superpower of showing up as this amazing game manager and an elite quarterback
by any measure.
But he shows up this amazing flawless game manager at different times against elite opponents
and then against the giants and other teams that are that are less than he pukes all over
himself and does that drop back 40 yards and fumble it clay.
I know he's his career arc has been so bizarre, so bizarre to this point, but I cut you off.
You were making a point there and I didn't want to cut you off.
The only point was that, you know, yes, we're exact Jones in there.
Zach Wilson.
In fact, Mac Jones, but Zappy is the only game left on the schedule with a non elite
quarterback and that is pretty terrifying.
It definitely is.
And I think it's a good segue JJ to talk about what the real defense of this bill's
team needs to be, which is a well prepared and effective offense.
What did you think about the the ringing in of the Brady era and Buffalo?
Yeah, so if I had to to show a pie chart of the reason I think that the Buffalo Bill's
offense looked as good as it is.
I would probably credit Joe Brady, his calling of the game, his sequencing of plays, his
building of concepts with like a 60% of that pie chart.
I think that would put 20% of the pie chart on Josh Allen and then I'd give the remaining
20% I'd split it between the running back room and the offensive line 10 each because
really what I what we saw was the offensive players executed better.
I think the shakeup of firing of Ken Dorsey, some of those guys into reality to realize
they needed to prepare better.
They needed to perform on the field better and not make, you know, timely mistakes.
And so I think that just the shuffle alone was able to convince some of them of how serious,
you know, of dragging their their, you know, baggage through the week and not preparing
like they used to was really affecting the team.
And then I think, like I said, 60% was the way that Joe Brady called the game.
I mean, we saw, you know, continued things that were going on with Dorsey with, you know,
a lack of use of Gabe Davis.
Gabe Davis was out there as a run blocker and not targeted, no cap, no catches, no cards.
Stefan Diggs, the big, big difference with Stefan Diggs became a role player on the offense
instead of the only person you're forcing the ball to the, the number of option routes.
We talked about how, you know, during Dorsey's leadership as the OC, be so many plays where
Josh Allen is expected to come out on a two by two set shotgun, and they do one of six
different route combinations with the four receivers out in the field.
And he his only alternative to hitting somebody who beats their man is or finds a soft spot
on the zone is to dump it off underneath to James Cook, who literally would just, you
know, big if he did a play action handoff, he'd fake the handoff run through the line,
turn around and just wait for the quarterback.
And then, you know, it was kind of, it was vanilla, it was predictable.
What we saw in Joe Brady was that he had, he scheme guys open, and this is what we've talked
about time and time again of what was missing from the bill's offense is that yeah, there
might have been options for Josh Allen, but it required him to see every receiver at the
exact right moment that they were breaking open in order to make the right decision and
then get the ball out on time and in pace.
Couldn't happen against most of the defenses the bills played.
Some pressure looks have messed that up.
Some teams learned that they could blitz him if they threw him off the reads, he was only
able to read one or two receivers, it was almost always an incomplete pass or an interception.
And so what I saw from Joe Brady was he, you know, maintained mostly five man protections
with his offensive line, maybe a sixth guy, he didn't do any of the stuff where Dorsey
was keeping more people in the box protecting Josh Allen than out on routes, which makes
it easier to cover.
And he was leaning heavily on passes to running backs, which as for the person who was the
OC at us at a team with Christian McCaffrey and really no other talent, I understand that
completely you you establish an identity in a situation like that.
And we saw it come through with both James Cook and Ty Johnson having a really excellent
day as receivers as part of the game plan.
Because you know, it's a simple concept, it's curious that this hasn't ever been you know,
endorse these time it wasn't a focus is let's actually send a run running back on a route
against what we know is a good matchup.
Let's use motion a little bit to pre designate where they're going to be versus where the
person that's responsible for covering them is going to be to give natural separation
and hit them in stride and see what they do underneath.
That happened over and over the jets.
It meant that the offensive game plan was to absolutely attack the jets where they were
weak where they were weak is kind of they have slower linebackers and they have excellent
pass rush.
And if you can get the ball out fast to a running back against subpar coverage, they
are going to succeed.
They didn't have super long developing routes that that past a clear Shakur was like the
longest developing route of the game.
There was a number of underneath routes that were planned.
And there was a lot of plans to scheme guys open to make sure that they were pulling focus
of those linebackers and putting them in conflict to really kind of open up routes to concave
these the middle of the field you you hit this button so hard for weeks.
The greatest hits.
Yeah, the greatest they abandoned the middle of the field.
So you must have been so happy.
I was thrilled.
And again, the jets defense is good.
And I think we should acknowledge they're good.
And this bill's offensive struggle against them for what feels like going on three seasons
now.
What I liked the most about Brady and what he schemed up was that he was relentless in
attacking the defense where it was weak.
You mentioned a lot of the a lot of the pass routes to running backs, which I think was
exceptionally important in this.
But it also going back a couple of pods, we talked about the need of the bills to find
their Travis ETM their workhorse.
And we have been saying over and over again, James Cook needs 20 or more touches a game
in order to really affect the game.
Well, that's exactly what he got.
James Cook got 17 rushes, three receptions, and also Josh Allen was able to spread the
spread the ball around to seven different receivers.
Another recipe we know for success.
And it's interesting because the Buffalo Bills for the first time in seven weeks actually
out rushed themselves when you include Josh Allen's designed rush attempts.
They had 38 rushing attempts total to 32 pass attempts.
So the balance was skewed, but the moments that they should but they were using the
run and the way that we said they needed to, which was attack these light boxes to set
up the passing game and get some really favorable matchups for some of these pass catchers.
The jets clearly came in.
Keaton Gabe Davis, which we had seen on film, they had done for the past few games, even
going back as far as a year, two years ago to the first game they played week nine and
20 22 against the Jets where Davis was being bracketed.
This Jets defense is obsessed with shutting down opposing teams wide receivers, and they
put so much emphasis on it throughout the course of the game.
Brady just schemed up to take the stuff that they were leaving behind because it's a it's
a resource limited.
It's a resource limited scheme.
Any time you're going to play an opposing defense.
So if they're really good at locking down one aspect of the field, you know they're
leaving another one open and the frustration we had with Dorsey and he would stubbornly
attack the thing that the opposing team wanted him to.
Right.
Where Brady was like, no, if you're going to lock down our outside, I'm going to use
the middle of the I'm going to spread the ball out to the middle of the field.
I'm going to attack there where your DB's and your linebackers don't have the boundary
as kind of an extra defender.
And we're going to make you defend the area you're most uncomfortable.
And he was relentless with it over and over and over again in that commitment to attacking
an opposing team's weaknesses for the first time.
And what felt like an Eon, it's felt like the Buffalo Bills rather than having the pace
of play dictated to them, we're dictating the pace of play with this high powered offense.
Well, and I think that, you know, I mentioned a 10% share of the productivity pie goes to
the offensive line.
That's not the city where flaws.
I think that there was a lot of pressure you saw in Josh Allen on passing down specifically
why they were trying to scheme things open quick and underneath.
And then on top of that, oh, Cyrus Torrance is becoming a problem in pass pro.
He looked pretty solid on a lot of running snaps, but I think he's hit a bit of a rookie
rookie wall.
We saw this with Spencer Brown.
We saw this with even going all the way back to Deon Dawkins rookie year starts to tail
off after about 10 games because, you know, the season is so much longer at NFL.
And so hopefully he's he has a chance to get rested up and ready for the stretch run at
the buy.
But I think that, yeah, you saw, you also saw things that we've been talking about with
this this team and that yeah, they hit the middle of the field.
They basically said, okay, take our wide receivers away.
That's your and they leaned into it.
I think that's the other thing that's the big difference between Ken Dorsey and Joe Brady
is he leaned into what he thought that he anticipated what the defense was going to try to do to
them and he made that that avenue of attack their weakness.
So like the Jets advertise it, right?
They are not a team that disguises pre snap a whole lot.
They pretty much run out the defense they're going to play and the defense telegraphs what
they're going to do the wide receivers.
And it was so infuriating to watch Dorsey constantly tell Helen to throw into the teeth
of that scheme, but Brady didn't.
What they want, yeah, exactly what they want you to do well and even solid after the game.
And this was the most points scored on this Jets team since to see in two seasons since
2021.
Yeah, since 2021.
So in two seasons, this is the most points any one offense has scored against them.
And the only two wide receivers who have a touchdown on the Jets this season are Stefan
Diggs in week one and Khalil Shakur in, you know, this week 11.
And so with that going on, you know, they tell you what they're going to do and then
they do it.
And can Dorsey would just stubbornly last year and this year that in the first meeting
say nope, we're going to be to with the thing we're good at, which is our outside wide receiver
Stefan Diggs get out there and run directly into double coverage, Josh Allen thrown an
interception to him.
And so basically, it was just so frustrating.
But it was great to see Joe Brady say no, okay, you do that do whatever you want.
We have the weapons.
And I think that's that's been so much of the frustration and so much of the reason
Bill's mafia has been calling for the Dorsey change is that we see this team with a stacked
offense with all these weapons.
And then we just stubbornly try to do one thing over and over and it gets shut down.
And, you know, it looked it looked good.
I think, you know, Josh Allen, Eric, he looked like he was having a good time.
He seemed rejuvenated.
And, you know, again, who knows how much of the change that is.
If that was just him coming awake because he was like, Oh crap, I just got my.
Friend fired, right?
Like I need to play better than that's fine.
If that's what it took that just means that McDermott pulled the lever he needed to pull
in order to get things fixed.
Yeah, it was, um, it was all around again, a win for the the Twitter X threads coach
couches or couch coaches rather.
And again, I that sounds kind of like pejorative and derogatory.
Those are a lot smarter than we used to be.
We've got a lot more tools at our disposal for analyzing the games.
I mean, we're we're a couple of amateurs that watch film and break down stat stat
packages and stuff like that to try to better understand the game.
And you saw it in Pittsburgh as well with the firing of Matt Canada.
A lot of these things they've come off and they feel like fan service and the firing
of Dorsey probably felt that way, especially with the the eruption of analytics nerds that
were like, but Dorsey is leading one of the third most efficient offenses in the league.
Right.
And I those are my people I vibe with those people.
But if you are only looking at it from the birds eye view and not seeing the play to play
lack of detail, the play to play lack of creativity, then no, if you're just looking at the numbers,
you wouldn't understand why moving on from Dorsey was the move that needed to happen.
And again, you and I, we didn't justify the firing.
We didn't try to call it right or wrong on the last pod.
And we also have to keep in mind not to overreact.
This is only one week against a team again that has a good defense, but it wins on talent
more than scheme.
And Brady was able to exploit that coming up in Philly, while the defensive metrics on
that unit are not as good as they are with the Jets in a lot of regard.
That is a team that plays multiple fronts.
And those are the types of defenses, a la Steve's bagnola that have really affected Josh
and affected the way he plays the game.
So while the Jets were a great test from a really talented defensive unit, I think the
Eagles are really going to kind of put to the test where Brady is at schematically with
this team heading into the buy.
Because that that Eagles defense while vulnerable in certain areas, they can do a lot of wacky
crazy stuff that can confuse opposing QBs except Zach Wilson, because Zach Wilson can
cut through all that when he plays the Eagles.
But outside of Zach Wilson, it's confused nine other quarterbacks that they've played
this year.
Well, and I think that that might be just it is like, if you can develop a defensive
scheme that can confuse is all NFL quarterbacks except for Zach Wilson, I think you take that
one L a year, because he is definitely the outlier in so many different ways.
Dude, I don't know.
I mean, I get it.
Yes, I get it.
I just Zach Wilson.
I just yeah, Zach Wilson's career.
He is the player version of Urban Meyer.
Like Urban Meyer will always count the Buffalo Bills as one of his two victories in the NFL,
a game that still to this day, no one can explain how the bills lost back in 2021.
And Zach Wilson's the same way.
He's just got some weird wins on his on his record that no one is really going to be able
to explain because the overall body of work has been severely lacking for that kid, unfortunately.
So yeah, yeah.
But I do think I do think we can say goodbye to the Zach Wilson era officially in New York.
I think while we may have reigned it, while we may have been a coronation ceremony for
a lot of his early success, I also think now we have put the final nail on the coffin to
his career with the Jets.
I think that's absolutely true.
I can't imagine that he comes back another season after this, especially now that they've
made the move in New York to move to Tim Boyle.
And here's hoping that Tim Boyle has an excellent year because we really need the Jets to beat
the Dolphins twice and do so much more for us.
Like we need the Jets to get out there and just shit the rest of the season.
They're likely going to just fade into an abysmal sad murky depth, but we can hope.
Did you see sauce gardeners tweets at the end of this game?
Oh, he was he was soft.
They were amazing.
He was so upset.
They were amazing.
That dude, I said at the beginning of the season, I said it after a week one in the face
of a loss and I will say it now, he might be the most overrated player in the league.
Like he just grabs and holds every time down the field.
He gives up on plays that that dude to me is the most overrated player in the league.
Well, it's like when they gave him the defensive rookie of the year award, they also handed
him a stack of get out of flag free cards that he just cashes in for all the DP eyes
because he just lets his whole game is like, I'm going to be tenacious and physical.
And like that's what the analysts will say.
But anyone watching with their eyeballs is like, Oh, you mean you're going to just basically
tackle every wide receiver on every route at the top of the stem so they can't get into
the break into their actual spot.
And then you're going to cash that in for a pass breakup when they can't get there and
like no flags are going to fly.
Yeah, he was really mad.
I think that it was exceptionally mad because the longest touchdown in the league for the
year to Khalil Shakir was on his coverage, according to the stepbook.
And so now he has that hanging over him that they've only given up to two touchdowns of
wide receivers and both were on his coverage.
Yep, and you can you can take that into the defensive player that you're voting if you
want to sauce.
I got one more aspect of this game I want to break down and then I want to move on to
the Eagles.
Josh Allen is obviously obviously a go so without saying so key JJ to so much of the
success that this team has had, but also will hopefully have moving forward.
So moving on from Dorsey, it wasn't just the overall scheme and play calling the people
were were looking to analyze here after this Jets game.
It was how did Josh Allen do?
Did would Josh would Josh play with Instructure?
Would he throw up a couple of ugly looking picks?
Would he look like he would he was having fun?
All of these things were thoughts that were circulating amongst Bill's mafia Twitter and
Bill's mafia social media as we we waited with anticipation to see what Josh Allen would
look like in this new offense.
And I think there was a lot to like it looked and this is going to sound this is going to
sound horrible, but it looked a lot like how it looked under Dayball in 2021, the season
after Josh is, you know, coming out here where he just blew the doors off everyone on that
COVID season.
It was erratic at times.
There were definitely some questionable decisions made that Shakir throw was.
And it was signature Josh Allen, where it makes you look on and wonder at how he did
it.
And then as you see it over and over on instant replay, it makes you wonder why he threw it
right into triple coverage.
Exactly.
It was on a rope out of freaking frozen rope.
And so it was to me, it was a callback game, not because it was super efficient, not because
it had a 158.3 passer rating, but because it looks like the Josh of old, all the good
outweighing a lot of the erratic and a lot of the bad.
But those scales finally being tipped more to the the alien freak type of Josh Allen
that we have seen, as opposed to this kind of list list game manager that he looked like
he has been for the majority of the season.
So JJ, what did you see from Josh?
Well, I just like to take one tangent temporarily.
I've heard this phrase, you know, podcasters and the bill's beats will use it.
Seen on Twitter, of course, when people call a pass a piss missile, why just why?
I think that I have.
I've never heard that.
Have you?
No, no, no, right?
No, you've heard the phrase, though.
Yeah, I've heard the phrase.
Okay.
I don't understand where it comes from or why you have me thinking about it.
I don't want to know that, you know, the etymology of it, but, but yeah.
So that was a clear piss missile throw from Josh Allen.
And like you said, when you watch it, you watch it over and over, you're like, oh my
god.
And, you know, sauce definitely had a chance.
He had a stab at it.
That could have been an I&T.
But it worked out.
That's the kind of thing that like we don't expect Josh Allen to be a 158.3 perfect game
manager with absolute efficiency, throwing nothing over 20 yards.
And I think that what we do expect is for, you know, him to be this wild stallion who
only gets a QB rating of 108, but, you know, has those plays where you're like, I don't
know why he declined to throw the easy open Dalton concade sitting alone in the zone and
instead forces it to the boundary, you know, to a, a running back and stride.
Like, but it worked out right?
Like this is a thing.
So, um, I think that that's what you expect.
And I think also one of the moments I've heard multiple people talk about it.
Especially on X or Twitter or whatever people were commenting on it.
He ran like 70 yards down the field to celebrate with Kalyosha Kerr, which you didn't see this
year.
Like there were times he was scoring just handing the ball to the ref and like dap it up a couple
of teammates as he ran to the sideline completely listless.
He even said on the sideline, you know, he's like, he said, I'm, you know, bleeping back.
I think I'm bleeping back or whatever.
And they tried to get stuff on digs talking to the media today after practice, tried to
get one of the reporters to say it.
He's like, come on, say it.
No, I think you're misquoting him.
What did he say?
The reporters like, I'm not going to say it.
And stuff on things like, okay, well, yeah, no, I think you said he's back and that's
what we saw.
So it's good to hear that from the players.
It's good that it seemed like Joe Brady made football fun for him again because I think
that Ken Dorsey all year was like, I am going to fix Josh Allen.
Right?
Like I'm going to, I'm going to put him in situations that he likes the, the half field
or full field reads option routes where he can like vibe with his, his wide receivers.
And I think that I want him down actually, because it was such a departure from previous
years where it's like, they made it simple for him.
And then he got to just kind of play football.
And if the read wasn't there, you got to do some crazy shit.
Yeah, man.
You know, and it's the advanced analytics nerds probably don't think there was much
of an improvement for Josh Allen in that game.
His time to throw was a little bit slower than I think everyone would want.
But Josh with his mobility and his ability to play outside of structure, he, he can
afford to do those things as long as he's clicking and making the right decisions.
And for the majority of the game, he was making the right decisions.
You know, his time to throw was 2.83 seconds, which isn't bad.
It's still a little bit long, but not terrible.
His aggressiveness, his aggressiveness index was only 6.3%.
He was throwing to wildly open receivers.
So statistically, he was making the decision to check down for the most part to a lot of
these open wide receivers.
And his average, his average yards at the point of catch was only 3.2 yards.
So he was choosing to check it down where he needed to.
And what we saw here, and I don't think you can call it decision, better decision making
from Josh necessarily, but he picked his spots a lot better.
The Shaqeeq, the Kulil Shaqeer throw being a primary example of that.
He was picking his spots a lot better to attack.
And it was because the scheme that Brady was running set him up much better to take a lot
of those chances.
He was no longer throwing into the strength of a lot of these defenses that Shaqeer throw,
that was inside the hashes, if I recall, or more towards the middle of the field, not
against the boundary.
So Josh making those adjustments and picking his spots to be aggressive in that way is
a credit to Josh, understanding the opportunities that the scheme allowed him, but also a credit
to Brady for setting up Josh in that way as well.
So I think, again, going to complimentary football, I think the thing that we, we, and
ended the Dorsey era on was that it was a he's a pretty good offensive coordinator,
not the right QB fit.
And it felt like Brady understood the type of QB he was working with and look to set
up an offense that played to a lot of Josh's strengths.
And I think he did that really well.
Josh played with Instructure for a majority of the game.
But when he took his shots for the first time this season, he made it count.
Absolutely, and I think that the other piece of that that you saw is that he, he had a
few runs, but he wasn't running all over the yard.
And I think that that's the kind of change that we had hoped would happen this season,
but still have the variance of taking those shots, throwing to the receivers that were
available, you know, like doing the things that Dorsey was trying to force without completely
erasing his opportunity to get out and mix it up a little bit.
And he had that one third down conversion he ran for.
And he not only did he run for a third down conversion when there was no pass available,
he slid after the sticks.
And it was just, I was like, wow, who's this guy?
I don't know what this guy is.
Yeah, it was really nice.
Yeah, it was, it was, dude, it was a throwback Josh Allen game.
And again, I know 2020 is like his peak season.
But to me, 2021 Josh Allen was that's, that's where I like fell in love with the gun slinger
wreck type that this dude could be.
And that's what this game felt like for the first time in a while.
Agreed.
And I think that you sort of throw out the 2020 Josh Allen was the COVID season, the
stadiums were empty.
There were so many other variables that changed the trajectory for so many players that year
that you have to kind of put an asterisk on that one.
And that was his first year of this kind of productivity, which means that the NFL defenses,
you know, need that one year of tape in order to look at his tendencies, come up with solutions.
And so I really think that the 2020 and beyond Josh Allen is the one that you should, if you're
going to look back at his career, you know, and hopefully 15 years, you could say, okay,
that's the guy, you know, that we had.
And I'm fine with it.
I think that, like I said, we saw some renewed juice, some renewed faith in his arm and kind
of willingness to take some chances.
But you know, hopefully that carries forward.
Do you want to review our predictions?
Our predictions sure to go wrong.
I do.
Yes.
Because I'm curious.
I think it's going to be easy.
We both said this was going to be a low scoring affair.
Yeah.
And you said 2014.
Yes, man.
Even though I've seen the game, I still feel good about that prediction.
Like if we had to predict it again, I'd be like, yeah, that's where I'm at 2014.
Right.
No, we both had the Jets over a half touchdown.
So we thought they'd break their bad touchdown streak and they did.
It was their only score of the game.
And I think it was 11 quarters.
I think I've isolated between 32 straight quarters, which would have effectively been
their season and like four.
32 drives.
Yeah, it was 32 drives and 11 quarters.
Yeah.
So, but they finished that and you know, I don't think anyone really cares that it
came against the bills because of the only thing that they scored the whole day.
You had Breeze Hall over 22 and a half touches.
I took the under and he ended up getting 15, 10 catches, five carries.
They just, they got to use that kid more, man.
I don't know what that is.
Well, he's also not, I think, I agree.
I think he's a talent, but the last four or five weeks and probably this comes down to
the, their poor offensive line and the injury, bad injury luck they've had on the offensive
line, but he's averaging like less than two yards per carry over five weeks.
So he's been, when he's had opportunities, he's not done well.
Well, and over the last five weeks, he is, he is in Zak Moss, Devon single territory
where he is being contacted behind the line of scrimmage at one of the highest clips in
the league.
So yeah, I mean, I think the offensive line is a problem.
Yeah.
But lowest yards before contact.
Correct.
Right.
Yeah.
But you know, and this is a little bit of a sidebar and a tangent.
I just feel like the way modern NFL defenses are built and the roof with this too high shell
that everybody seems to be playing to make this, to make football ugly and unenjoyable
and low scoring.
Yeah.
There has to be a reconfiguring of how running backs are used.
And it feels like the skill set that you would want in a running back to help alleviate
some of the defensive pressure you're facing as an offense.
It seems like Breez Hall is the total package.
And I'm just confused by how Nate Hackett is deploying him in that offense.
I'm not.
I don't think Nate Hackett is good.
And that's okay to say that because Tom Brady says the coaching is bad.
So if we're agreeing with the goat, there you go.
Yeah.
So the I had the bills winning even in a lower scoring affair of 16-10, because I think both
of us were afraid of, we were both afraid of betting on this offense, right?
Like we were afraid of thinking that the offense could do anything against the Jets defense
because the Jets had basically had their number for so many weeks or so many matchups.
Had Dalton Gate over half touchdown.
I think you were correct when you picked under because the Jets definitely scheme to try to
remove him from availability.
They did some things to squeeze the middle of the field where he liked to be.
And especially they made an adjustment in the second half because he had like what six
targets, five catches in the first half.
Yeah.
And I think like two or three targets and one catch in the second half.
So they did a good job blocking them down.
But again, it opened up stuff for other guys.
Yep.
And Joe Brady was willing to use those things.
Which is yes, we just wasn't force feeding or target funneling one or two guys.
You know, it's amazing.
It's just this Buffalo Bills offense is so talented and it's so deep and it's so healthy
at this stage in the season.
Like the only key piece we are missing is Dawson Knox from this unit.
And it is just I get it's a one game sample.
But everything we saw Brady do is the stuff that we have been begging for out of this
offense all season.
And I just hope it continues.
Me too.
So to continue our the last one we had was that we I thought that Von Miller would get
us back you correctly predicted he was still not going to do anything.
He's he's so off like I get he's recovering.
But even and I get probably a lot of it is like his recovery, his rehab, probably his
performance, but he's he's not the same sideline energy that he was last year when he was healthy.
So and we saw this a little bit with Trey White coming back from from an ACL terror last season
where he just it didn't feel like Trey until this season where he had a full healthy off
season only unfortunately to end injury.
But but Von feels like he's in that boat where he's still really physically limited.
Yeah, I think that, you know, many people have rightly pointed to the fact that he should
be giving up his snap share to AJ Epineza and Jack Lawson.
Yeah.
And that his presence or his value on the team, even though he's got the highest salary
of all of the defensive linemen, his value right now is just as a locker room leader,
you know, because he's not bringing it on the field snap by snap.
And so we'll see how that goes.
But but those were our kind of predictions for this one.
Let's transition over to the Philadelphia Eagles who will bring the juice.
They absolutely will.
Where do you want to start?
Offense, defense, because I'll tell you, in both regards, these teams statistically JJ
are remarkably similar, even though their records couldn't be further apart.
Let's start with the the Jalen Hertz led Philadelphia Eagles offense versus the Bill's defense.
All right, I like that.
And I think that what we're going to see this week is certainly something we haven't seen
for the past few weeks, which is an offense that comes in with a lot of threats in offensive
talent.
I think that for, you know, the Broncos game, the Jets game, it really was okay, they've
got these two ways to hurt you.
If you shut those down as a defense, you've pretty much got them figured out.
The Philadelphia Eagles Jalen Hertz will run Deandre Swift is an amazing back.
AJ Brown has had a career resurgence.
Devonta Smith is lightning in the in the slot.
And then they've got a, you know, the the corpse of Julio Jones, who occasionally appears
for a possession catch in front of the sticks.
They're missing one of their key pieces, Dallas Goethe and I got her and I don't know that
he's going to be back for this one.
So yeah.
So that's the only part of their very talented offense that got them all the way to the Super Bowl
last year that they're really missing.
And they're they have one of their tackles is on is on I.R.
Roderick Johnson, so they're kind of, you know, they're they're also pretty healthy
as a team.
And they're able to bring it.
The anybody who watched the Chiefs Eagles Monday night game a couple nights ago will
tell you that they did not look like they were operating at peak efficiency.
The Chiefs defense is a very, very good defense this year.
Strange for me that it feels weird to say that, but they're really, really good.
They're playing really good.
Yeah.
So some of that has to be taken into account.
But the the offense still also for the for the Eagles didn't seem to be operating at
peak efficiency.
And hopefully they continue to have some like spurts and stutters against the Bill's defense
because the Bill's defense will need it.
I think that when the strength of this team is Jalen Hurts second reaction plays after
pressure to AJ Brown, DeMonte Smith, I think that or DeAndre Swift underneath, like that's
the part that that I think you have to worry about a little bit with the Bill's defense
because they do have a component in their offensive attack that can hit the bills right
where they hurt, which is, you know, some of the speed underneath some of the speed across
the center and the Bill's kind of slow aging or injury depleted secondary.
What are your thoughts on general ways that they might attack?
I agree.
I think the Eagles have been, I think by their standard, a frustrated offense this year.
They're still top 10 in rushing yards per game, passing yards per game.
They've progressed a little bit.
But Jalen Hurts is getting the the 2021 Josh Allen treatment where he had that baller of
a season last year, gets his money deservedly so and gets his contract after taking their
team to the Super Bowl has the most prolific offensive performance for a quarterback in
a losing Super Bowl effort in history.
So teams are like, you know what, maybe we don't want to let Jalen Hurts bomb it deep
to Smith and Brown all the time.
So teams have absolutely put that to that cover to shell roof on this Philly offense
at when they are opposing them.
And what it's led Philly to do is really become a volume rushing offense and they haven't
been able to take their shots downfield at the clip or the success rate that they could
last year.
JJ from an EPA standpoint, the Buffalo Bills are actually rated a smidge higher in the
in the rushing department than the Philadelphia Eagles are, which is something for a team
that's known as a rushing unit.
Now listen, it's three and four respectively in the league ranks.
So these are this is still an elite rushing unit, but they're doing a lot more of it with
volume this season.
Hurts is also battling some lower body injuries that keep popping up every now and then throughout
the course of the season.
So I think this Philadelphia Eagles offense is dying to attack this Buffalo Bills defense
downfield.
We have said it time and time again, opposing teams are attacking our injury replacements,
they're attacking danger and they're attacking Terrell Dodson in the passing game.
And I don't think this game is going to be any different.
I think in point of fact, the Eagles are probably going to throw to the opposite side of the
field that Rizul Douglas is on because of the game that he had against the Jets.
As a result of that, whoever the DB is that is partnered up with him on the outside is
going to have their hands full.
I think the Eagles are going to attack aggressively against this Bills defense in early and often
because unlike the Buffalo Bills, the Philadelphia Eagles, while they have a defense that is
vulnerable, that is a defense that can close the game.
So Philly's going to want to get out to a quick lead and they're going to want to let
their defense close things out like they did against Kansas City.
So I think absolutely the deepest parts of the field that you can imagine are where the
Bills are going to be most vulnerable.
And I think this game too, because of the strength of the interior offensive line for
the Philadelphia Eagles and the light boxes that the Bills are forced to play with, I
think is going to be subject to the Russian game.
I could see a lot of I could see a lot of play action, deep shots downfield that are
set up by a really effective Russian game for the Eagles.
And that all worries me.
I think the other thing, if you need to know anything about how good the interior of that
offensive line is for the Eagles, they're like 32 and 0 when they do the push push in
third and one or less situations or fourth and one or less situations.
It's kind of insane.
They did it multiple times against the Chiefs.
And even with Chris Jones anchoring the nose in those situations with help on their side
of him, they couldn't do anything.
Jason Kelsey and those boys in the middle are we're just getting it done and that it's
Landon Dickerson and Cam Jergens who are both kind of top tier guards.
And so their middle three, yeah, their middle three are just absolutely tops in the league.
I'm probably up there with Chiefs and Cowboys as the top top offensive lines in the interior
in the league.
Absolutely can be had on the edges.
And that I think is something that's going to be it's going to be interesting for me
because I think that, you know, they're probably scheming some things to try to slow down Leonard
Floyd.
They're probably going to shift protection towards him, which shall bring me to a prop
later.
But, but it's going to be interesting to see how the bills attack them around the edges
because you can't you can't do an inside move on those tackles to try to get to jail and
hurts because he is so lethal like Josh Allen like Patrick Mahomes if you give him an outside
to escape to if he gets out into the into the wings, he will kill you downfield.
And so it's going to be really interesting.
I think I agree with you.
I think that they're going to the Eagles path to victory will be get on the scoreboard early,
establish their run and then play action off of it because that's been their game script
for their nine their nine wins.
And they're already they're also undefeated at home.
And so that's something that brings you a little bit of, you know, it gives me a little
bit of apprehension about this one too.
Yeah.
And this is the bills are I mean, the bills really really are in must win territory.
Like if they drop this game, they go into the by they come back against the chiefs.
They've got still have an opportunity to make the playoffs.
But man, heading into the by seven and five as opposed to six and six would be pretty
amazing for this group, especially if the Jets can can do anything against the Miami
Dolphins.
But, you know, it's interesting you bring up Hertz coming down being said he's been
said 27 times this year.
There is a vulnerability on the edges.
But because the Buffalo Bills have been so effective at establishing the edge, I wonder
if this is one of those games because also we're we're going to see a lot of funky runs
as well.
I wonder if this is one of those games where you see Mick D decide that he's going to
play an odd front or he's going to flip Rousseau inside to give him a little bit of extra juice
in the run stopping game as well.
The versatility of Greg Russo and the speed of Dorian Williams to me are two key factors
in this game because I don't know that Buffalo can successfully guard the middle of the field
with Tyrell Dodson for as good as good as he was in that Jets game and the improvements
that he is making speed, the speed of this this Philadelphia unit being what it is.
And I include Jalen Hertz in that as well.
You're going to need some counters to that and you're going to need to get your NASCAR
package out on the field.
So I wonder if we're going to see Russo flipped inside more and I wonder if we're going to
see a few odd fronts that allows Dorian Williams to come up and play outside linebacker.
I think that's a good point.
I think that's a way that you can kind of angle things and just to add a note on my
comment about being afraid to take on the Eagles at home.
They've scored over 30 points in every contest at home this year except for one against the
Cowboys which was a win where they scored 28.
So it's also the kind of thing where they get their juice in Lincoln financial field
and the Bills have a hard time on that road environment because it's you know, the Bills
Mafia in Orchard Park has been referred to as one of the hardest places to play because
the fan base is so passionate.
But Philadelphia has been referred to as one of the hardest places to play because the
fan base is dangerous.
So I know right?
Shout if you're Santa Claus seriously.
In Orchard Park you'll get booed and like the energy is electric for the home team.
But in Philly you'll get hit with a battery.
So we'll see what this game shows.
But I agree.
I think there's some places that the Philadelphia Eagles are going to be trying to take advantage
of some weaknesses, trying to take advantage certainly of some absences.
If Dane Jackson and Mike Hyde who went out as well, if they're not back for this one,
I think that that's very worrying and they might not be their bulletin concussion protocol.
Taran Johnson also out right now I believe.
So it was Taran Johnson.
That's the one.
Yeah, that's right.
That's the one.
That's like the last domino.
If that one falls, I mean this Buffalo Bills defense I think is pretty cooked for the rest
of the season.
Well, and yeah, of course.
And I think that also the Eagles on offense are going to, they're going to play their
game and if the bills show weakness, it's going to be a long day.
I think it's going to be a long day.
Do you want to flip over to the offense?
I do because I think this game has shootout potential.
I really do.
I mean I think this game has the potential to be very high scoring because a lot of the
vulnerabilities we've talked about with the bills, I mean I think are mirrored by the
Philadelphia Eagles as well.
So let's get into that.
To me, JJ, this matchup starts again that Philly defensive line, particularly that interior
defensive line led by one Jalen Carter who almost intercepted a spike from Patrick Mahomes
in that Monday night game.
That was so brilliant.
I'm like why has nobody done this in the NFL?
I'm like oh my gosh.
Seriously, it really was.
You're going to see more guys I think try that and get collapsed on by 340 pound NFL
centers.
And who care?
And who, if you can survive the contact, why not?
Like you've literally just changed.
Why not try?
Because any time where an opposing team is spiking the ball like that, it is a desperation
mode.
You're sealing the game for your team and putting an interception on your stat sheet
as a nose tackle.
Like oh my god.
I know.
Who would just far outweigh the dangers?
Risk it all for it, folks.
Risk it all for it.
But no, I think it starts there and you mentioned the struggles that Osiris Tourans has had
in past protection.
I think he's going to be highly tested.
We've also seen Spencer Brown for as much as he has improved this season.
The bills have prioritized giving him help against elite edge rushers.
Who saw it with Max Crosby in the Raiders game where you leave in a Latavius Murray
to chip or a Dawson Knox to chip before they leak out for their route.
I don't know with how dynamic this defensive line is that Buffalo is going to be afforded
that opportunity to chip a lot of these elite edge rushers and help Spencer Brown in the
way that he has received help earlier on in the season.
This feels like a game JJ that's going to be one and lost on the right side of our line.
I agree.
And I think that, you know, when you look at the Philadelphia Eagles lineup, you know,
the defensive line, like you mentioned Jaylen Carter, who's he's a rookie, right out of
Georgia.
Yeah, he's a Rook.
Yeah, he's here.
Yeah.
Who I actually, you know, he's been surprisingly productive in the NFL.
I remember during the draft being like this guy is going to be a he's a clear, you know,
Marcel Darius to me, somebody who like struggles with his weight, like doesn't always seem
to give the effort.
But he's shown up for the, you know, they're unlocking him and Philly, he's unbelievable.
So he's unbelievable.
So good on them.
And I'm still and yet again, I'm stupid with the draft take.
But this is why we pod and we're not chance.
That's right.
Yeah.
But yeah, they're they're front Jordan Davis, Fletcher Cox.
I think that the thing about Philly that if I'm a Philadelphia Eagles fan, I'm worried
about a little bit is that they have a similar problem to the Buffalo Bills, which is they
have a very aging defense and they're kind of injecting draft picks.
They draft highly on defensive linemen, but they just recently had multiple, you know,
free agent caliber players who who'd achieve free agency after their first contracts leave
after their Super Bowl run, which always happens.
You always lose talent after you get to the big game because other teams are like, well,
I want that.
That's a champion.
And so that that happened, but they they double down, they draft highly and they try to rejuvenate
with some some young talent.
But I do see some aging players like Fletcher Cox, Brandon Graham, you know, some of them
who were there when when Sean McDermott was there as a DC.
So there are some players that, you know, certainly are along in the tooth, but they
still bring in and, you know, I worry so much about Hassan Redick against Spencer Brown
and endosiris Torrance on that right side.
I worry about Kevin Byard because when he was with the Titans, he, you know, I think
he got a couple off of Josh Allen.
So he tends to have pretty good games against against 17.
So there's some players on that defense that worry me, but I don't think I think to your
point earlier, they're not the same like hyper elite unit that they were when they went to
the Super Bowl.
Because again, they lost some talent.
Actually, their defensive rankings and EPA per play and and different metrics are about
average.
They're great kind of in the middle of the league on defense.
One thing that's worth noting is they're they're giving up the fourth worse, fifth worst, third
down conversion percentage on the season, which I found interesting.
Two points.
Yeah.
Yeah, they're, and I think back to week one, the game they had against the Patriots and
McCorkle kind of found his stride in the second half of that game.
And it was a game that honestly, the Patriots should have won, but they did about exploiting
the middle of the field, which is where I think this defense has been hollowed out a
little bit via attrition and injury.
So I mean, this is a group that lost, I think, to Kobe Dean, who was one of their originally
originally intended starting middle linebackers.
You mentioned the Kevin Baird trade.
That's because they lost Justin Evans, one of their safeties earlier on in the season
as well.
So this is a team that, while not as injury bit as the bills has suffered some injuries
that have made it vulnerable in areas of the field where they were not last year.
The defensive line still gets after it.
I think this is still a top seven unit in total sacks this season.
And the corners, Slay and Bradbury, those are still, that's still one of the best, even
though aging one of the best cornerback duos in the league, but it's the middle of the
field.
So these teams have really been going after to sustain drives.
And you see that time and time again, you mentioned that third down conversion rate
for this defense allowed.
I'll bet you if you were to look at a lot of the success charts against the Philadelphia
Eagles, you're going to see a red hot zone right in the middle of the field where this
team is really struggled to defend.
So if the bills can keep a lot of this interior pressure off of Josh and give him a relatively
clean pocket up the middle.
I think you can see a really big Dalton Kincaid game because I don't know that they've necessarily
got a counter in that linebacker room or in the safety room for a guy like Dalton Kincaid.
And who's their, who's their nickel corner?
It's Nicole Roby, right?
So they X.
Yeah.
So Bradley Roby is on their team.
It's Oh Bradley Roby.
Nicole.
Yeah.
It's Bradley Roby.
So I'm thinking of the old thing of the old Buffalo Bill.
Yeah.
And then there's Nicole Roby Coleman who won a game on a defensive penalty for the Saints
or against the Saints.
No that's Darius Slay and James Bradbury on the outside.
And then they have Josh Jobby and Bradley Roby who will come in and play in the nickel.
And that's actually a place that they they're a little bit, they're a little bit susceptible
on that nickel so whether it's Clil Shaker or Stefan Diggs getting snaps on the inside
I think you could see some nice productivity or or it's you know like you said Dalton Kincaid
or Dalton Kincatch as he's been named on Twitter.
Getting some some play in the middle of that you got.
I know Swalby Swalby easily is so much better.
For sure.
Yeah.
So I think there's some opportunities.
I think that actually the thing that I saw changed you know kind of changing the narrative
a little bit here.
The thing that I saw that could help out is the Chiefs who admittedly have a better offensive
line than the Bills.
But the Chiefs were able to run some zone to the edges and off tackle plays a little bit
of power against the the the strength of the defense for the the Eagles to some effect.
And that was with Isaiah Pacheco who I think is a little bit more he's a little bit stronger
overrunner than James Cook but he's definitely not faster.
And so I see some opportunities there with motion with maybe some counterplay and definitely
getting the tackle rep going because again I do not think there's a single tackle in
the NFL who is a better pulling talent than Deion Dawkins who was just absolutely did
you see him when he belly flopped on to Justin Clemens Ted I thought it was amazing or Michael
Clemens.
Oh my well it like the fact that he threw his arms out to the side like an airplane and
like that whole play from top to bottom was like peak Deion Dawkins the show man right
like he belly flops on to Michael Clemens Michael Clemens takes umbrage with this Michael
Clemens tries to pick a fight with him Deion Dawkins then has one of the best like you
know European League soccer flops I've ever seen for the refs doesn't get a flag on it
and then stands up and starts mocking their sideline it's just it was it was lovely that's
the kind of juice that I feel like we've been missing too is like the bills playing with
this kind of jerk attitude um and so but I do think that was right that was on tackle
rap play he absolutely demolished an entire side of the line to spring James Cook um or
it might have been Latavius Murray I'm not sure who but it's you know that's the kind
of thing that I think that bills could not only take advantage of hitting the middle
of the field on some of those zone read plays um to digs concade maybe Shakir but also doing
some things in the run game because I think that we know you know after seeing the the
Brady led bills he's going to lean towards the the running attack and I think that it
he was also not willing to abandon it even though they had some plays blown up I think
that was really nice yeah no I I agree I think I think there's a lot of I think there's a
lot of ways you can attack this Philly defense one of the things that we know about them
and this really does feel like it's interesting because they we just said the chiefs have
maybe the best defense they've had of the Mahomes era right now but previous iterations
of that chiefs defense were not we're not good game to game but they could put up a
great individual game when they needed to and I think this is a supremely talented defense
on the outside and in the trenches but you've seen this defense have to be more multiple
on the looks that they're giving opposing QBs and man that that Monday night game against
Kansas City was a perfect example of it they ran a ton of odd fronts they were dropping
eight guys into coverage at one point um bringing blitzes on others and you remember that Super
Bowl they played um last year against the chiefs where Vic Fangio was the the consultant
for two weeks helping to build that defense that was going to shut down Pat Mahomes and
you and I kept saying it throughout the course of that game if this Eagles defense doesn't
play more man and they let Mahomes continue to eat underneath they're going to lose that
game and sure enough that they did flash forward to this season some coaching changes happen
some coaching changes happen on the defensive side of the ball you now have a unit that
is way more multiple than it was last year so while a lot of the advanced metrics are
not yet behind the elite um are still placing behind the elite level that this team played
at last year this is a unit with the talent to put together some really special games
from week to week if they need to so I think it's going to be incumbent on the bills to
exploit a lot of their strengths that we've mentioned already but also I mean do what
Brady did against the Jets which is figure out where this defense is weak and vulnerable
and just how into that weakness and force force them to make an adjustment
yeah I agree and I think that you know what we see is even with this amazing defensive
front the the Eagles are still you know they have 31 sacks on the season which is you know
above middle of the pack so you'd expect them to have more though I don't know about you
but I was just like with the defensive front they have I would always expect them to have
you know be in the top five with bills Ravens chiefs commanders etc yeah oh I mean they
they last year they were on that record setting pace last season for for sacks a lot of it
and this is no this is no shade at what that unit did last year but a lot of that was coverage
sacks like they were elite in the secondary they had not just slay and not just Bradbury
but they had a great safety duo back there their middle linebacking core was absolutely
insane and what happens when you have a QB on a rookie contract which is what we talked
about when we previewed that Super Bowl game is that you can afford to pay a lot of these
veterans elite money to come in and be mercenaries for one year and that's exactly what this defense
was built on last season here we are this season and the unit is still good but definitely
not to the success rate that it was last season because it's been so hollowed out in a lot
of key positions they've done a great job scheming for it and again it's a unit that
can be dangerous um game in and game out but it's also a unit that can be had in more ways
I think than last season I mean JJ overall EPA per play this defense is 18th in the league
by comparison the Buffalo the injury depleted Buffalo Bills are still sitting at around
12th in EPA per league now they're still posting a negative EPA which is what you want your
defense to do but they are in the lower half of the defensive success rate for all NFL
teams this season this is not the same defensive unit that they were rolling out last year
yes they can be dangerous in some places yes they can be multiple but there are counters
to this team that did not exist last year because unlike the New York Jets who we just
talked about they don't have that same level of great individual talent so they're scheming
to hide their weaknesses more and I think a smart play caller on the offensive side
of the ball can really exploit it I don't think this team JJ because of the lack of
speed in the middle of field would have an answer for the Josh Allen scripted run I don't
so if you can break out Josh a little bit and some of the and some of those key situations
if you can establish some crack toss outside zone games to slow down some of these edge
rushers as well I think you got a really really good shot at beating this team effectively
at its own game which is running the ball to set stuff up down the field because you
know they're going to come out there regardless of how multiple they want to be they're still
going to disguise coverage pre snap and more than likely play cover two high shell post
snap to try to confuse Josh the run game and the crack toss game is great way to beat a
lot of that.
Absolutely and I think that you know we'll see some things we'll we'll what I'm most
excited for is that this is an opportunity for Joe Brady to declare to the NFL what he's
capable of versus a complete team right like the Jets everybody can put an asterisk on
that win because it's like well you didn't have to worry about their offense you could
just play your game and you knew that they were never going to like get you know get
five touchdowns like you could just slow play do what you got to do and I think the bill
still had a had a commanding all three phase victory I think that's excellent this is the
first of two real tests that Joe Brady is going to take and how the bill's offense looks
is going to be a referendum on whether or not he should have a job at the end of the
season to continue as the offensive coordinator and so I think that that's an opportunity
and we'll have to see how it goes I think we've kind of laid out a blueprint for what
we think the bills can do to attack this defense but again it's a multiple front they have
to protect Josh Allen because I think that's what can derail this entire thing and Josh
Allen has to protect the ball do you want to how do you feel about this game do you
want to get in some predictions I do yeah I do and I want I want to start with score
because we always start with score but I think unlike a lot of other games we've seen this
season this one has a has the potential this to me is an early game of or not early but
this is a game of the year candidate where I think you've got defenses with similar
vulnerable vulnerabilities against some really high powered offensive offensive that has
not hit their stride yet I think you could see some really special stuff happen so JJ
I'm going because of hope against hope I am picking the bills to win this game I'm hoping
there's a little bit of a let down after that Super Bowl matchup it's a little bit of a
short week for Philly I get that it's home and home for them but all that being said
I'm going to take the bills here 33 to 30 over the Philadelphia Eagles you and I just
I love you in the mute button are just not battling I'm bad with it I'm bad with me yeah
I should stop me myself because I started to respond to that I'm muted so you have 33
to 30 bills right correct correct yeah that's why that's where I'm so I have the same exacts
and except slightly I had 34 31 bills so oh nice exactly the same victory margin with
a slightly you know one point scored by each team more so that's really interesting I like
it I think it's going to be a cardiac contest to I think get your ADs your AD paddles ready
because this is going to be you know one of those games that nobody feels comfortable
in at any point in time and so I hope that we see you know wild crazy Stanley and Josh
Allen having a blast I also hope that we see a you know the first clean game by Josh Allen
since the dolphins game and so that's that's my dream right like that he comes out so one
of my props again my score prediction bills win 34 31 in a cardiac contest Josh Allen
point five turnovers I'm hitting the under what about you I am definitely taking the
over I mean look at the look at the interception that he threw I know against the Jets it was
it was Hail Mary and it was just a strategic interception right it was an arm punt I mean
it was like he's going to throw those up and I'm fine with that type of interception I'm
not fine with like the backbreakers on the first play of the game and I listen we just
got to accept that it is built into guys like Josh and it's built into guys like Deck Prescott
and it's built into guys like Patrick Mahomes who by the way is a great player but he's
only two interceptions behind Josh Allen for the league lead I think the way defenses
and this is going to be a larger conversation I think in the offseason the way defenses
are playing a lot of these elite QB's makes them play perfect ball and there's not a single
perfect QB out there so I think it's reasonable to expect some of these more elite guys are
going to have more turnovers just don't make it the dumb backbreaking stuff that we have
seen give me more arm punts and Hail Mary picks any day of the week but no I think Josh has
that propensity like Mahomes like Prescott and I think he is going to throw in this game
because it's a really talented cornerback duo that we've got going so yeah.
But it's a cornerback duo that's talented however it is a team that is middle of the
league and turnover takeaway margin they they're sixteenths like they're dead middle they're
not really taking it away to greater click than they're they're turning it over and
their differentials minus one so this is an offense that also gives it away and it defends
the struggles to take it away yeah but he's still going to throw.
All right fair fair and my my stat was over under point five turnover so like just interception
could be a fumble like I still think he's under I think he plays a clean I'm hopeful
I'm taking I'm taking over but I love the hope you have.
Hope you see in the in the hope you pipe here.
I am going to go I'm gonna ride the hot hand with Khalil Shakir Khalil Shakir large longest
reception over under 19 and a half yards. So we'll Shakir have a at least a 120 yard reception in this game.
And I'm going to take the over. I think yes. For the reasons that you mentioned, I think it's a weak nickel.
It's a weak nickel cornerback room for this, this Philadelphia defense. And I think Shakir is going to
going to make some hay in between the hashes on the seam.
Okay, I'm actually taking the over too, because I actually think that that's an easy over for me because I think that
would take that bet almost every time that he gets more than five catches, not because the air yards is going to be 19 or
five or greater, but because he can turn a seven or a yard reception into a 25 yard game. He tends to have a really good sense
of where bodies are around him and how to get to space. And so as you saw in the touchdown, I mean, you know, Dalton can
Cade's doot block aside. That was, you know, an excellent kind of field view and feel of where where he needed to get
to to find open space. I like that one I'm smashing the over to, I've got, you know, staying on the wide receiver thing.
I think that this is a game where digs gets back on the scoreboard because I do think that they have outside corners,
but they don't have super elite outside corners. And so I think that their their strength is that everybody on that defense in the secondary
except for nickel corner and except for inside linebacker is above average, including the replacements who are playing at safety.
I think everyone's above average starter in NFL, but I don't think that they're like shut down lockdown players. And so I see digs getting a
tutty. How about you?
Yeah, I could go with that. I'm going to take the over as well. I agree. This is a great coverage duo that is not necessarily shut down.
They can be had in certain areas. And I think if the Office of Line can do its job and give Josh a little bit of time or if Josh can
buy some time with his legs, I mean, him and digs are just lethal in the improvisational passing game. And I could really see technicians
like Slay and Bradbury really succumb to a lot of that improbability that those two have. So yeah, I'm going to I'm going to take the over.
And listen, I think from a team chemistry standpoint, digs, I think is an underrated emotional leader on that unit. But you also don't want to
keep him out of the game plan multiple weeks in a row. You're going to need him down the stretch when it counts. You're going to want to continue to get him some quality reps and not just run him out there as a decoy.
So yeah, I'm going to take the over as well. I got one more. I got one more if you're you're into it. I'm into it.
Jaylen Hertz over under half a turnover. So he has actually done a really good job since that Jets game of taking care of the ball, that Jets game where he threw three
interceptions. He has only thrown turn the ball over once since that that Jets game. That being said, though, he is a QB who likes to take shots like to take chances. And we have seen this Buffalo Bills defense in recent weeks
against the Broncos or against the Broncos and against the Jets turnover and opposing offense. So over under half a turnover for Jaylen Hertz.
Sounds like you're going over.
Are you going over? I'm going. I'm going. I want to know what you want to do because I actually have not decided I wrote this. You're going to bet off of me. Yeah, I wrote this prop down and then I didn't write a response and because I'm like, Yeah, I don't know.
They'd be stupid to throw Douglas, you know. Yeah. So I'm actually I'm actually going over. I think he gets a turnover, but I don't think it's coming the way that you think it is. I've actually seen the the thing that he that I saw in the
chiefs game that I saw as a vulnerability of Jaylen Hertz game is he does not take care of the ball when he's running around in the backfield. And I think that this the defensive players, especially the edge rushers, specifically
Shackloss and AJAPN as in Leonard Floyd, they all have a natural sense to swat at the ball if they're not going to get there for the set. So I think there's a chance that they get one on the ground that way.
And so I'm going to take the over. I don't think he throws in their reception, but I think he does have he loses the fumble.
I'm going to take the over to I just I just think there is I think there is I did I did I literally just decided I think there is pent up frustration for both of these these QBs who are elite, who have been shackled and reigned in by a lot of the
defensive the defenses they have seen. I think both of these defenses are going to provide some real temptation for these QBs to lean into some of their most problematic, but exciting tendencies. And I think, listen, man, I could easily see a two turn over game from both
Hertz and Allen in this right. So I mean, I think they're going to want to sling it. So yeah, I'm going to take the over to
I mean, then I have I have one last one. Just again, this is my just me hope prop. Greg Rousseau half sack over under.
He's I know he's heard but he's been playing so damn well. It depends. It really does depend.
And to your point before this is a chance for mcd to play some different fronts and Greg Rousseau rushing from the inside is pretty lethal.
He is and he would provide some real problems for what we've established as an elite interior offensive line. I'm still going to take I'm still going to take the under though.
Rousseau Miller they don't seem right even though Rousseau is playing with a lot more pop right now. This this doesn't feel like this feels like this feels like a weird in a weird way and AJ up and as like domination game for some reason I don't know why I love it.
I like these are just these are just the games that AJ up and as it tends to come in and dominate.
Let's see it. I want to see it. That's that's exciting for me. I think that for me. I know that the the season sort of hangs in the balance with this one as it does every game for the rest of the season.
But I think that you know the monkey off the back of the Joe Brady game against the Jets the win against the Jets.
I think most of Bill's Mafia is going to this game way less you know apprehensive than we have for a number of weeks and I don't know about you but I'm feeling kind of loose and ready to see them play this this elite challenging team.
Yeah me too. I think the offense is going to have a good week not just because of the things that Brady is seems committed to doing but because again I agree with you I think this team realizes that that they have hit rock bottom and there is a little bit more playing with house money at this point.
And I think we saw earlier on in the season so the expectations have definitely shifted and I think this is a lighter team as a result of it.
So yeah, JJ as we sit here and pod pre Thanksgiving I want to wish you and yours a very happy Thanksgiving here.
It's been great to pod with you up until this point and I am thankful for you tolerating all of my prediction sure to go wrong.
I don't know anyone else in this world that would be able to put up with it.
It's a hurt killing effort but I do my best and to you and yours as well and to everybody listening you know I hope you're fat and happy tomorrow on Thanksgiving day and you know it's going to be a good time this weekend I'm hoping we're all going to have a nice turkey day.
We're going to watch the Dolphins lose on Friday and then we're going to go into our weekend and be ready for a go bills moment.
I'm hoping so I'm hoping so so for all of you listening at home like share and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts Google Spotify feel free to drop us a review for us to a friend and as always go bills gobble gobble go bills.
.