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Welcome back to the Buffalo Bread Podcast. I'm Jitjit with Me As Always And Dan. And

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this week has been quiet in the news front. Nothing really happening. No big upheavals,

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that's for sure. Just kidding. No. For half of Bill's Moffitt who have been screaming

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that Ken Dorsey is the problem with everything and basically the Antichrist, you've got your

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way. He's been fired for the other half of Bill's Moffitt who thinks Josh Allen is the

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problem or Sean McDermott is the problem. Those two individuals are still with the team

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and will be likely at least through the remainder of this season and most likely through the

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remainder of the next several years. So we'll get into all of it and where are your feelings?

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What is happening with you today? I like you had mired myself in the toxic toxicity of Bill's

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mafia wanting headstroll after that Broncos game. And I think much like the Bengals game,

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I'm going to venture a guess that our post game recap of the Broncos game is going to

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be less about numbers, JJ, and more about the feels because that game left everyone

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with the feels to the point where folks wanted to see headstroll needed a pelt on the wall,

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something to indicate that this team was going to do any modicum of adjustment to change

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the fortune of where this team appears to be headed, which is a missing the playoffs

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for the first time since 2019, 18, 19, first time since 2019 in the McDermott era. So Buffalo

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Bill's fans got their wish. And the discourse as a result of that has been nonsensical to

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the point where I don't know how to feel about the Dorsey firing. I can tell you that from

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as an outsider looking in, this is a move that most head coaches make to scapegoat the real

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reason why a team may be losing. The answer around why the bills are five and five at this

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point is way more complex than even the criticisms we have levied about Dorsey play sequencing,

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building to to eventually exploit this team's off offensive strengths. All of those things

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have been contributing factors to a team holistically that has been struggling for some time on

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both sides of the ball. Monday felt like a breaking point for this team. And it felt

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like the first time in the McDermott era, where you could get the sense JJ that his

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seat was getting a little bit warmer. Now, we don't know much about the baguolas as owners.

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They've made some questionable decisions on hires, retro iron. And then they've made

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some really good ones that have led us into the area that era that we are now. So it's

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hard to know where this ownership group stands with the performance of this team. But the

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firing of Dorsey is a classic classic NFL head coach move to try to buy yourself a little

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bit more time deflect where the problem re problems really are in the hopes that you

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can patch something together and salvage a season. You now have Joe Brady in but the

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defense doesn't get any healthier. We don't know if Josh will stop turning the football

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over. And by all accounts, it is hard to see how the firing of Ken Dorsey on a short week

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against a team whose defense is absolutely owned you the past three times they've seen

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you over the last two years, how this felt like the right time and the right move to

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fix, fixed what held this team. So I'm left with a lot of confusion because this has been

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a very well run organization, well run team for years. And it feels for the very first

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time JJ like things might be coming apart at the seams.

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Yeah, I would agree. And I think that, you know, I think that as Bill's fans, we can

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look at last season. And, you know, there were so many obstacles that we talked about

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with injuries with, you know, the DeMar Hamlin situation with, you know, the bills, you

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know, being moved to different days and snow storms and apocalypse, all this stuff. And

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I wonder how much of last season, you know, we were like, distracted from the real problems

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that ails this franchise. And I think you're right, I think that Sean McDermott, it's it

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seems asinine, the success that this team has had over the past five years or so to

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consider a coaching change. But the loud voices and builds Mafia are saying he's sort of gotten

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us to to the ceiling of his capacity are starting to gain some more, you know, some more tenor

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in their voice. I think that that's, you know, it was one of us, one of the strong McDermott

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staunch defenders early this season, not just up till the Miami game, but in the kind of

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interceding weeks when the bills were kind of starting to struggle to say, you know,

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we had critical crucial all pro losses, three positions on the defense. So, you know, that's

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something a number of our past rushers playing hurt through several games. So I still do

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stand by the fact that I think Sean McDermott is doing more with less on this defense than

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Leslie Frazier did with the defenses he coached in previous seasons. That being said, you

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know, we like to look at analytics and things like that. And analytically, this defense

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is flailing. I mean, they've been bottom three or four in the league in a lot of metrics.

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Since that Jaguars game where we lost to Kwan Jones and Matt Mulano, you'd expect that

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with that level of talent kind of falling off in trade to Avis White the week before.

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But at the same time, I think that in certain parts, the scheme is is still to blame. He's

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still making some some mistakes. I think that the Broncos being able to charge it down the

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field and, you know, throw a short screen that went for 40 yards to get them a deal

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go range is like a perfect example. That's like basically the 13 seconds all over of

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too soft. And then he overcorrects and goes, you know, all out blitz on two consecutive

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plays. The first one is to great effect. And the second one, he didn't need it on the second

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one. No, they knew what was happening as soon as he lined up that they're like, Oh, it's

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just going to rush us the same. Like all you know, Russ needs to do is just whip this thing

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out there. I think that the pass interference calling Taran Johnson was just complete bullshit.

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Like that was another one of those situations in the NFL where referees stuck their nose

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in something that I think was a clean play. And I think that Taran Johnson's reputation

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was probably more at fault than his actual play on that particular snap.

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Darren Waller feels vindicated. Yeah.

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Out there. That's what that's what I'm saying is I think that there's certainly, you know,

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the referee is its own the referee world of the NFL is his own community. And it's probably

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one of those, hey, you know, keep an eye on this guy because he plays like pretty touchy.

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But I think he got a BS flag and that end of that game, I think it's false squarely

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on Sean McDermott. He could have escaped Matt Smiley for having 12 men on the field

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during field goal block. There are some, you know, people out there who are saying it was

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DeMar Hamlin and Hertz for a lot of different reasons. Some people saying it was Leonard

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Floyd who was supposed to be out there. I heard it was Floyd. Yeah.

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I've heard both, you know, that they have three, two or three different units on that

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will block a field goal depending on the alignments. And they definitely had communications in

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the mix up, you know, whomever's to blame. I think that where I'm at with this team is

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that I like the past four days, we're recording today on Thursday, the 16th of November, I'm

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leading up to week 11, match up with the Jets this weekend. And I've, I've come to a place

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where think that Ken Dorsey wasn't, I think he did need to go for a long time. I was like,

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no, Josh isn't taking the available check downs and this and that. But you know, a lot

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of people that I trust who think are very small, smart football individuals, including,

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you know, Dan Orlowski, bad quarterback in the league, very good analyst.

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Excellent analyst.

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Yeah, has shown some of the things that I think that frustrate Pills Mafia. And really

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the thing that he's done is articulated why it's so frustrating to watch in Josh Allen

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not having answers in the offense being wildly predictable. And I think that's the biggest

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problem. I've got some statistics to share when we get into the Jets breakdown about

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why I think that Ken Dorsey is not it. Just in the last, you know, three meetings with

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the Jets, what Josh Allen has played like compared to the years against the same franchise

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under Dable. So, you know, I think that the predictability and the fact that he put it

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all in the players to execute at extremely elite level to win the snap and the rep rather

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than providing scheme answers and staying one step ahead of the defense to make sure

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that they cannot literally read the formation. Oh, it's a two by two set. I know it's one

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of four different route combinations. And if I see the receiver release this way, I'm

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going to just jump what I assume is the deep over that digs runs on 25% of plays where

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they look like this and this down in distance like that can't happen. Like this is the modern

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NFL and there now is enough tape on this bill's team. That's why they look like complete gang

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busters the first four weeks on offense. The Jets game aside. And then fell off a cliff

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was basically there was no world where Ken Dorsey was able to evolve this offense. And

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on top of that with Dawson Knox going out for wrist surgery, he lost his his like only

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wrinkle. The only wrinkle he came up with in the off season was play action 12 personnel.

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Well, as soon as they can't have 12 personnel, for some reason they can no longer do play

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action and the whole offense seemed to take a massive step back.

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Yeah, I agree. And again, it's I you and I did not advocate for anyone to get fired

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on this pod. And I would feel weird approaching this JJ from the standpoint of is the firing

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justified? Because the reality is you and I we're not insiders. We have no idea we have

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no idea. All I think we can do is break down where the bills stood at the end of the Ken

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Dorsey era and try to figure out now with Joe Brady, a guy who comes in with with a

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reputation as a creative play caller, even though we didn't see a lot of that Carolina.

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The way I want to approach this is I want to break down where the bills offence is and

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where there could be a potential silver lining or improvement going from Dorsey to Brady.

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And I think a great place to start JJ is the is the the reliance on a lot of these players

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to play almost perfect football. Now, this has been a trope in Bill's mafia Twitter,

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where everyone is saying this is an offense that doesn't allow for any margin of error.

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And we have a freewheeling QB and it forces him to play out of his play style. The reality

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is is that this offense that the Dorsey scheme to relied heavily on pre snap recognition

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and then option routes for these wide receivers. And if there was a misread pre snap by Josh,

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or if Josh thought so so strongly that his initial read of pre snap was going to be there,

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he wouldn't look off of it and he would force it there because he had to believe eventually

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that that combination was going to open up for him. It was a combination of relying too

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much on pre snap. And I think a pre snap ability that Josh never really showcased that he

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had that paint manning like analysis ability. But then also to your point, having limited

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solutions and limited options, when the reads and the routes that Joshua was expecting weren't

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there. I think it was that. And I think it was the lack of ability to adjust early in

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the game. And I'll give you a perfect example. EPA for this Buffalo Bills offense through

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quarters one and two offensive EPA, the Buffalo Bills were in the middle of the league. So

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defensive EPA per play was right around the zero mark. So not really costing the bills

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anything, but also not gaining them anything. And we've talked about their production.

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So offensively, in the first two quarters of a game, this is for the whole season, the

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Buffalo Bills, EPA for offensive plays was also at zero. This is a team that in the first

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half of games offensively simply couldn't get going. Flash forward to quarters three

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and four. This team leads the league in offensive EPA in the third and fourth quarter. So there

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was flipping too late offensively for this team to ultimately get going. I think it had

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a lot to do with Dorsey making late game making adjustments, not making adjustments quickly

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enough as we've talked about. I think it's worth also noting that, you know, again, it's

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we're at a disadvantage, like you said, we can't make this firing a valid or invalid

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kind of statement, we can't make any sort of judgment on it to know if it was the right

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move or the wrong move. And I guess the time will tell, right? Like the semester, we'll

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see how the offense does. We'll see how they execute and maybe it's better, maybe it's

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worse, right?

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The rest of the semester, I can tell where you're at.

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Geez, yeah, yeah. Again, both working in used to work in higher ed and work in higher

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ed. So the rest of the season, yeah, we'll see where it's at. And I think that one of

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the biggest things, you know, when you talk about Josh making pre snap reads and Josh,

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Josh this, I think that Ken Dorsey's offense, like you mentioned, is not terrible. But it

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is the kind of thing that's built on there are three components for almost every play

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and especially every long and late down like third and longs. It's basically the component

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is like you said, Josh needs to know exactly what where he wants to go with the ball pre

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snap. He needs to make an adjustment to that read post snap, especially if they rotate

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coverage, drop out, you know, and bring only a three man rush and eight are in coverage.

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And then from that, both he and the wide receiver have to make the same decision on the play

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because so much of the offense was built on option routes. And that's awesome for people

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like Stefan Diggs, who, you know, has this amazing connection to Josh Allen can make

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a read of what the defense is trying to do to him and snap off his route into one of

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six or seven different options. And Josh Allen, hopefully, and that's the third component

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is Josh Allen and Stefan Diggs have to like mind meld and know exactly where the ball

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needs to hit at the right time. And if you don't, you know, with option routes is being

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such a massive part of this, this offense, if there's an execution error, that's an

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interception. That's why I think we saw some Gabe Davis intercept, you know, interceptions

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while targeting Gabe Davis, some, some status on I didn't double check in myself. So if

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it's wrong, I apologize, was essentially, you know, Gabe Davis was targeted on 16% or

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something of all throws for the season. But 55% of the interceptions Josh Allen is throwing

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were towards Gabe Davis. No, that was true. That was last year. We so that was true last

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year as well. So we broke this down when the bills went into a midseason swoon, ironically,

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at a similar time. By the way, happy anniversary to the Minnesota Vikings game, which happened

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one year to the day of the Monday night. Oh, really? Oh, yeah, that's miserable because

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both were similarly. Yeah, they were similar in the in the scope that like both games were

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literally in the bills grasped like seven different times and they just squandered it

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away. Yeah, but but we did a similar we did a similar autopsy at that time and actually

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pulled the notes from that pod. And at that time, we had discovered that 60% 62% to be

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precise of Josh Allen's interceptions were on routes that targeted Gabe Davis according

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to pro football reference. But it speaks to your point that chemistry with your with your

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QB and with your wide receiver is so important in an option heavy scheme. And digs and Allen

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have that Davis and Allen don't have that. And it also explains why it has taken the

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Buffalo Bills so long to onboard new weapons to this offense because it relies again on

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perfection is a perfection is a strong word. But it relies on a mastery of pre snap reads,

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perfect adjustments, post snap, and then wide receivers and a QB and a highly highly volatile

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defensive environment that they're facing, getting on the same page quickly. I think

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it I think it explains a lot. And again, this is not a this is not a criticism of Dorsey.

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It's an explanation and a reasoning I think of why this team is where it is, where digs

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continues to be good every year, Davis continues to struggle, I think the drops are more on

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Davis than anything else. But why this team throws money at Emmanuel Sanders and and D&T

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Hardy and all these other names and Trent Scherfield, and none of these guys can get

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on boarded into this offense. And really enough to make an impact. It's because the scheme

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while or or laski is correct is relatively simple. Everybody gets a couple of route trees

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and then go out there. And then all those routes seem to end in the same place as well,

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which is another frustration of this offense. It relies too much on the things that Josh

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doesn't do well, and too little on the things that he does do well. And Josh, there's a

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huge chunk of blame in this too, because he never adjusted, I think appropriately to

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this scheme. Well, and I think that, you know, just kind of as an aside, that I'll use the

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an example, you know, statistically from the from the Broncos game. But I think if you

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look through the other six games in the past, you know, month and a half of football that

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was since the Dolphins game where they've just looked, they've done poorly is, you know,

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they lost lost the turnover battle in the Broncos game by negative three, right? They

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had four turnovers, the Broncos only turned the ball over once in the four turnovers,

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they had two interceptions, the Broncos had a punt off of one, you know, after taking

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possession and a field goal off the other. So that's plus three, you know, it's 10 point

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swing if the bills would have gotten a touchdown on that drive. Anyway, they had two fumbles

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lost. And the Broncos got a field goal off of one 10 point swing and a punt off the others,

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you know, minus seven bills for the one turnover the Broncos gave up, the bills turned it into

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a touchdown. You know, they've been losing the turnout to a turnover battle consistently

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in all of their losses for the past six weeks. That can lay that at the feet of the defense

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a little bit. But of course, Josh Allen is making mistakes. The scheme is predictable,

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they're all the problems we've been covering. But the bills on this is probably why the EPA

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per play and different DVOA standings, the bills are turning those, you know, opportunities,

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they do extra opportunities, they do have into more points than the opponent. So the

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defense is actually, you know, statistically doing a little better because they're stopping

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drives that they have no business stopping because the offense is coughing it up a plus

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yardage. And then when the defense does break a turnover, get a fumble because they haven't

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had an interception in what it's five weeks now, it's the longest, the longest streak

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in team history without a perception of correct four or five games, which is just pathetic.

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And it's sad and like you're just like, Oh my gosh, Russell Douglas save us, please.

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And so, you know, in that kind of streak of bad turnover luck and not being able to get

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ahead and not getting extra possessions, you know, that's how we get these games where

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they lose close or win close over inferior opponents, because the opponent has the edge

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they need with a couple of extra possessions and the bills don't, even if they're doing

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more with less and protecting their own end zone better.

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And the irony of these turnovers, and it's, it's interesting, and I'm going to sound

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like a Josh Apologist and I don't mean to because I think he does deserve to take a

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full slice of accountability here. But according to PFF, his turnover worthy throws are at

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a career low 2.4%. 2.4% of his throws are turnover worthy. And yet he is leading the

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league in interceptions as we sit here now potting about this very topic. Now on the

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broadcast, it looks like he is just making dumb throw after dumb throw. But over the

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course of the season in the aggregate, he is making really good decisions. He's playing

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it the most efficient level he has played in his entire career, his completion percentage

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and completion percentage above expectation, also the highest that it's been at any point

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in his career. Dude, none of this makes sense. And it boils, it boils down to a little bit,

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I think of kind of what you're alluding to and why so many people are having a hard time

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wrapping their heads around what is wrong with this team. Because Josh is statistically

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and he's not regressing. He is the same QB that he has been.

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Well, and I'll say this, I think that you touched on it very briefly, there is the predictability

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of the route tree, the statistic of turnover worthy throws measures separation, usually

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measures the separation of the intended receiver at the point the throw is made. And what I'll

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say is a counter to that statistic is, I know that that's accurate, it's a true statistic,

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it's reasonable, it usually tracks pretty well with the best and worst quarterbacks

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in the league when you look at it year over year. And their actual interceptions versus

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turnover worthy throws varies because of again, luck, right, there's a luck component. But

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I do think that for the gap, because, you know, CJ Stroud, rookie sensation in Houston

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has the same turnover worthy throw percentage, and only two interceptions on the year. But

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I think where the difference is, is it's not just luck, because you can, you know, it's

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easy to be, oh, it's just bad luck, shitty luck. But what you need to look at is that

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where the actual charting of those throws and turnover worthiness or not, doesn't capture

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is whether or not the DB is baiting that throw based on the predictability of that route

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tree. And in situations where the DB is baiting that throw, they are literally giving the

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cushion they know Josh is looking for to rip it. And once he rips it, they're breaking

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to the point that they know the ball will be at. So essentially, they're also skewing

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the turnover worthy throw statistic by giving separation to a receiver they know is going

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to break in a certain direction, and then beating them to the spot.

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Yeah, no, that's perfectly said. It's perfectly said. We saw that with Jabril Peppers in New

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England very first throw in the game. Cam Taylor Britt.

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Cam Taylor Britt did it right. I mean, AJ Terrell on the Atlanta Falcons last season,

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yes, very same thing. You started to see a lot of DB is understanding where these routes

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were end would end to stay just outside the window of visibility for Patrick Peterson

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last minute break. Patrick Peterson where they claim of his life. Yeah, the game ceiling

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interception on Josh Allen and overtime. It wasn't an overtime for Minnesota. I don't

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think it was over time. I think it was fourth quarter. It was fourth quarter. It was out

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of the game. But he had the game ceiling interception in the end zone. And he's explained it publicly

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many times that he watched the film. He knew that when Gabe Davis was lined up in that

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situation, that kind of play selection in that formation, there were only two routes

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that he would run. And he just literally sat on the one he he guessed right, he had a 5050

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shot of guessing right, he sat in the exact spot knew where Josh Allen send the ball after

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a certain break. And he picked it off like, and that's part of the reason that, you know,

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we're talking about a lot of different components. There's a lot that goes into this.

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Josh Allen isn't faultless. Sean McDermott, if he's influencing play selection and demanding

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this low thing to settle, he is not faultless. Oh, I can guarantee you he is and I got some

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stats for that. But you go on. Yeah. And Ken Dorsey certainly carries some of the fault

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as well. All that said, I think that what we've seen over the entire, you know, 10 year of

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Ken Dorsey's briefstin and offensive coordinator is that this offense at times has gotten stale.

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They've rarely been able to reinvent. They tend to make adjustments in game too late

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to be effective. And they also don't come up with easy schemed ways to get their best

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players in open space. And there's so much that I want to see done with Dalton Kincaid

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and James Cook that they have not done because I think of a lack of creativity and a lack

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of ingenuity at the coordinator position. Right. This was an offense. And it's been

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so interesting to listen to the media takes on this because you have a lot of the advanced

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analytics nerds coming out and being like, this is Josh's fault. If Ken Dorsey, you

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know, if Josh wouldn't turn the ball over so much, Ken Dorsey would still have a job.

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Their underlying efficiency metrics are great. Top third in the league in most efficiency

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categories offensively, except in the one that means the most. And that's the score

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on the scoreboard at the end of the game. This team simply not putting enough points

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on the board to win knowing that it has a deficient offense. Now, the counter argument

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to that is because the defense is deficient, right, the Buffalo Bills offense are put in

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less than ideal circumstances. They have been in the past in order to succeed. But the success

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rate of this offense is still top third in the league. I dude, I don't know. I don't

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know how to say it better other than the Dorsey offense got us to the doorstep, but it wasn't

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getting us inside the door. If that makes an allergy makes any kind of sense when it

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came to when it came to actually putting points on the board. So what to expect from the Job

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Brady offense? I don't know. But I don't think the changes are wholesale. And I don't

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think they have time for wholesale changes. And this might be a good, good time to transition

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into our Jets pregame. I don't know if we have time for wholesale changes now, or even

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the week after when we play Philadelphia. But I think there are things on the margins

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that we can do that will make this offense not just efficient, but also more effective

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than it was under Dorsey. Yeah. Well, and that's, you know, I think

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that one thing I have a little bit of hope for is during Joe Brady's introductory press

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conference today, his first press conference as I was seeing one thing he said that kind

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of resonated with me as he said, he said, I have to, you know, kind of bring the juice

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and the energy, but I also have to be the calm when those guys need it, need to be the

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voice, you know, that's that's keeping them steady, focused and calm. Actually, that gave

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me more hope for this team that I've had in days. Because I think that, you know, we all

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remember laughing and giggling to ourselves that, you know, Ken Dorsey freaking out and

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breaking his Microsoft surface in the in the booth in Miami during the heat game. And various

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and times, yeah, so there's times, well, and I think that that's that's another thing

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that like I think drew, you know, Josh Allen to him and made him Josh Allen's pick for

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the OC when Brian Dabell is he's a fired up competitor. And I think that, you know, that

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that vibe with Josh Allen's, you know, sensibilities. But I think, you know, Dabell, Dabell would

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get in Josh's face. He was he was very, you know, animated and energetic and, you know,

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fiery. But he wasn't emotional, that makes sense. Like he he applied emotion to situations

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to get his point across. But he seemed to be always in control. And I think in Dorsey's

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play calling, just as an amateur person watching TV felt like all we are we get in week out.

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Yeah, exactly. It felt like at times he was calling plays from emotional perspective.

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When they shut something down, you know, he would get angry that it was shut down and

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try to hit it harder, or he would get demoralized from the fact that his, you know, the same

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QB draw that he ran five or six different times per week, where he motions the running

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back out of the backfield to make it an empty set towards the bunts formation and then runs

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that, you know, QB delayed draw that gets completely swallowed three times on Monday

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night against the the Jets week one. That's he just like keeps smashing this button because

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he's I know this play is good. I know this play is good. It's gonna work. Finally, it's

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gonna work. And that's doesn't that doesn't work in NFL. And so I wonder if Joe Brady

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will have, you know, some pivots and some counter punches that aren't just that don't

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just look like ego, just declaring that we have the better roster and we're going to

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beat you with something and actually are like, you know, a little bit humble and hungry,

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like John McDermott likes to say and you're like, okay, you've got us on that one. And

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it's probably not going to work because you've definitely studied it. So we're going to add

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a wrinkle, we're going to change it. We're instead of doing the jumbo set to the left,

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Josh Allen naked boot to the right that every CB has blitzed and ruined Josh Allen's day

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on, we're going to, you know, fake that except the handoffs going to go or there's going

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to be an end around element, something that can kind of add wrinkles. Like hopefully we

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get to see that a little bit. And I really liked, you know, some of Joe Brady's comments

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are, you know, I need to bring the juice, but I also need to be the calm voice in the

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room because maybe, maybe he's kind of endorse these issues and the reasons that players were

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not executing for him was he was too fired up.

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I mean, who knows. Yeah, I mean, who knows.

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Yeah, I mean, at this point, we've done this for 34 minutes and it's felt cathartic, but

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I am no closer to understanding where this team gets better because again, the Dorsey

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the Dorsey firing again, not trying to justify or not justify it, call it right or wrong,

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whatever we want to. It opens the door for opportunities for this bill's team to improve

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on the margins. But here's what it doesn't do. Doesn't make the defense play any better

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or get any healthier. It doesn't change some of the underlying, I would say regression

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of other metrics of this team that have been happening throughout the course of the season.

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Case in point, Sean McDermott, taking now fire, effectively firing definitely Dorsey

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and probably Frazier, both of his coordinators in less than a year span and making the decision

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to take on individual play calling duties. He has been an incredible defensive play caller

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in Schember this season. I you could argue he's one of the best offensive coordinators

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in the league, but it's clear to see and I think the Denver game was the most obvious

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example of it with 12 men on the field, but it's clear to see that it is taking a toll

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in the way he approaches his head coaching duties as well. Great example is fourth down

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probability calls, right? What percentage are teams making the right call to go for

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it on fourth and down? Fourth down, the Buffalo Bills were number two in correct rate in making

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that call this year. They've dropped all the way down to number eight. They're behind the

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Tennessee Titans in this metric. They're behind the Carolina Panthers in the in the LA Charger

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that the LA Chargers in this metric, right? So McDermott's overall quality of coaching

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has suffered as a result of his desire to take on play calling like they fired Frazier.

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They didn't want to trust anybody else in the room or anybody else they had brought into

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that defensive room to take on play calling. So McDermott was going to take it and that's

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fine. But the point that we are at now is clearly his management of this team has executive

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leadership, if you will, of this team is beginning to deteriorate somewhat. So firing Dorsey doesn't

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fix that. And I think this year you see it play out in the numbers. There were always

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these rumors that McDermott and Dable didn't get along. McDermott was trying to impose

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too much of his own philosophy on the offense. Warren Sharp came out and tweeted it. The

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noted sports sports book at sports gambler, Warren Sharp came out and tweeted it that

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McDermott had interfered in the offense so much this season that it had become unrecognizable.

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And this is an offense that used to be last season, one of the highest and most effective

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by in terms of rate and frequency highest and most effective teams and throwing the

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ball on first down. And this year when they throw the ball on first down, they're averaging

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just under nine yards per play on completion. The problem is they're doing it less. They're

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doing it less, which is what we know McDermott wants them to do. Last year they were doing

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it at a rate of just above 65%. That rate this season is closer to 59%, which again,

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is a marginal percentage decrease that is enough to affect the scoreboard, maybe not

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the underlying success metrics of this offense, but it's enough to impact the scoreboard when

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you are not running your best play on first down every time for the sake of complimentary

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football. So again, and we covered this last time, there's blame to go around.

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Well, and I think that's the biggest thing too is like we talked about it, you know,

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in the pod previously, I said, you know, I have the empathy to understand that if you

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have a depleted defense that's playing with only five of your preferred 11 starters, you

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the last thing in the world you want is your offense to go out, go three and out after three

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pass plays, take 16 seconds off the clock and you're back out there, right? Like, I

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get that. But I think you're absolutely right. If this team is going to go anywhere, Sean

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McDermott needs to kind of throw his hands up and be like, Well, whatever happens to

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the defense happens to the defense, you know, unleash the reins, right? Like let the offense

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do whatever it needs to get points on the board and stop, you know, demanding tempo,

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demanding slowing things down, demanding running the ball, establishing the run. Although I

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will say it's frustrating in the Broncos game, you know, Sean McDermott benching James Cook

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for 16 plays or 18 plays after his ridiculous, ridiculous, benching Gabe Davis for tipping

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an interception that hit his hand, the ball that hit his hands on a good, good placed

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pass directly into the waiting arms of a safety like benching Gabe Davis, but benching James

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Cook is just such bullshit. And I think that it's we've seen this so many times in Sean

393
00:35:55,200 --> 00:35:59,120
McDermott's tenure, it's one of my biggest problems with him. I tend to like I said before,

394
00:35:59,120 --> 00:36:05,000
I tend to be a defender of Sean McDermott for the most part. But his whole like stance

395
00:36:05,000 --> 00:36:12,880
about punishment and kind of being, you know, punitive with his players when they make mistakes

396
00:36:12,880 --> 00:36:19,160
is like, I don't think it vibes with the modern NFL player. I don't think anyone respects

397
00:36:19,160 --> 00:36:24,680
that. I think that, you know, Andy Reid has a really excellent approach, which is, if

398
00:36:24,680 --> 00:36:28,240
you make a mistake, you know, I'm going to I'm going to throw the ball to you three more

399
00:36:28,240 --> 00:36:34,120
plays immediately after so you get your confidence back. And I've always thought that's a better

400
00:36:34,120 --> 00:36:38,360
way to go about things. It's it's doubling down on things that Sean McDermott says and

401
00:36:38,360 --> 00:36:42,680
actually acting upon them. Like I love, you know, what's about love, we're doing this

402
00:36:42,680 --> 00:36:46,760
for each other like, etc, etc. Everyone needs to do their 111. And then he does something

403
00:36:46,760 --> 00:36:51,840
like that, which just looks like somebody who's conservative and afraid. He's too afraid

404
00:36:51,840 --> 00:36:56,960
of failure to trust that they're going to turn it around on their own. And it's just,

405
00:36:56,960 --> 00:37:00,560
oh my God, it frustrates me so much. And everybody jokes about it. I mean, like, when

406
00:37:00,560 --> 00:37:04,160
Zach Moss was a rookie, I think he fumbled, you know, early in his season, we didn't see

407
00:37:04,160 --> 00:37:09,880
him for four games, he was inactive. Like, it's just the kind of thing where it's, it's

408
00:37:09,880 --> 00:37:15,360
not the way to go. But he's such Sean McDermott such a principled guy that like, he's probably

409
00:37:15,360 --> 00:37:18,440
never going to change and I'm always going to hate him.

410
00:37:18,440 --> 00:37:26,240
He he looks like he is having the least amount of fun. Game in and game out on that sideline.

411
00:37:26,240 --> 00:37:30,520
And I've got to believe that it starts to permeate the rest of that, the rest of that

412
00:37:30,520 --> 00:37:36,740
clubhouse, right? I mean, he looks like a dude who is coaching for his job and is living

413
00:37:36,740 --> 00:37:43,640
and dying by every single play that is on the field. And I think I can I think it's

414
00:37:43,640 --> 00:37:48,920
having an impact on the team. And it's a direct result of him being just spread so thin, so

415
00:37:48,920 --> 00:37:55,480
thin because of his defensive duties. Dorsey's firing to me has changed nothing about what

416
00:37:55,480 --> 00:38:01,520
I feel needs to change with this group, right? Like, is Joe Brady doing more RPOs and lining

417
00:38:01,520 --> 00:38:06,840
up Josh under center more and running more action, right? And running more 21 personnel

418
00:38:06,840 --> 00:38:11,240
like you didn't Carolina. That's the magic bullet for this. No, the issues are far more

419
00:38:11,240 --> 00:38:12,560
systemic at this point.

420
00:38:12,560 --> 00:38:18,400
I think it was Matt Perino asked during Josh's media availability this week, you know, do

421
00:38:18,400 --> 00:38:22,000
you you don't look like you're having fun like you don't look like you're having fun

422
00:38:22,000 --> 00:38:26,960
playing football? And like the answer that Josh will first of all, if you've watched

423
00:38:26,960 --> 00:38:31,760
any of Josh's media availability, not just after losses, but in general, after having

424
00:38:31,760 --> 00:38:37,160
fun, no, he looks freaking miserable. He looks like this is the worst day of his life every

425
00:38:37,160 --> 00:38:42,160
day. The only time he looked like he was having fun was when he pointed at that bangle that

426
00:38:42,160 --> 00:38:47,200
he shook out of his cleats a couple of weeks ago. I was like, that's the Josh I know. That's

427
00:38:47,200 --> 00:38:52,000
the only time we've seen it. Like, where is the kid who would talk? Where is the kid who

428
00:38:52,000 --> 00:38:56,520
would be like, I love that shit. Every time you got tackled or telling an opposing DB

429
00:38:56,520 --> 00:39:01,880
to people, sorry, Rizul Douglas, right? Like you suck. I mean, where is he? Where is that

430
00:39:01,880 --> 00:39:06,080
dude because like, like you said, yeah, he pointed to the Bengals, they flagged him on

431
00:39:06,080 --> 00:39:10,840
the play and then he went back in his shell. And like I said, I think it was Matt Perino

432
00:39:10,840 --> 00:39:14,520
or somebody asked him in media availability, like, you know, you don't look like you're

433
00:39:14,520 --> 00:39:20,040
having fun. Are you enjoy football? And Josh Allen's answer terrified. He was like, you

434
00:39:20,040 --> 00:39:24,560
know, because he's been talking about this low positive energy that he brings of like,

435
00:39:24,560 --> 00:39:28,800
you know, staying trying to stay steady and confident and, you know, I could too high

436
00:39:28,800 --> 00:39:34,080
and not to get too low. But his direct quote was like, along the lines of everybody grows

437
00:39:34,080 --> 00:39:39,800
and matures as people and players. So, you know, I don't know how to answer. And they

438
00:39:39,800 --> 00:39:45,760
just sort of mumbled and trailed off. I was like, Oh my God, that's terrifying. Everybody

439
00:39:45,760 --> 00:39:50,160
grows and matures as people players. You look like you hate your life. And I'll like that's

440
00:39:50,160 --> 00:39:51,720
not where you want to grow to.

441
00:39:51,720 --> 00:39:56,960
No, that's not the maturity we want. The maturity that we want is for you to take free yards

442
00:39:56,960 --> 00:40:01,160
with open guys and stopped getting locked in to your pre snap reads and

443
00:40:01,160 --> 00:40:05,080
And we're watching the shirt and go out of bounds. The whole way there.

444
00:40:05,080 --> 00:40:10,680
Right. Give the middle finger to the refs and every defender that you hurdle over. We don't

445
00:40:10,680 --> 00:40:16,520
care. We don't want we don't want emotional maturity. We want professional maturity.

446
00:40:16,520 --> 00:40:23,000
But we also and we want we want our Josh back is what we're saying. We want the the gunslinger

447
00:40:23,000 --> 00:40:28,520
hurtling over people talking trash to other teams got even in the Miami game where we

448
00:40:28,520 --> 00:40:33,720
were throttling the dolphins. Usually Christian Wilkins and Josh Allen, they're going at it.

449
00:40:33,720 --> 00:40:36,280
And Josh was just not having any of this. Right.

450
00:40:36,280 --> 00:40:41,320
To the huddle every. Yeah, every play is no chirping. And I don't know if that's McDermott.

451
00:40:41,320 --> 00:40:44,880
I don't know if that's Josh Allen's personal stuff. I don't know if it's just him. I don't

452
00:40:44,880 --> 00:40:49,360
know what's going on. I think that everybody sees it and we're all very worried.

453
00:40:49,360 --> 00:40:54,520
If I were if I were six, five, two hundred and fifty pounds could run like a gazelle

454
00:40:54,520 --> 00:41:01,880
and had a cannon for an arm. I would talk shit every minute of every day.

455
00:41:01,880 --> 00:41:06,960
Seriously, I would I would take the I would take the fines to wear cut off football pants

456
00:41:06,960 --> 00:41:13,400
on the NFL field. Exactly. Right. I would just cut a check to the league pre game. Here's

457
00:41:13,400 --> 00:41:17,680
here's I'd work it on my contract. Here's 30 percent of my pay because you're going

458
00:41:17,680 --> 00:41:23,960
to flag me 15 times for taunting in this game. And I just wear just a cowboy hat. No helmet.

459
00:41:23,960 --> 00:41:28,760
Like it was, you know, yeah, I don't know what's going on. And like kind of shifting

460
00:41:28,760 --> 00:41:34,040
into the Bill's Jets preview. This is probably not the week that we're going to see that

461
00:41:34,040 --> 00:41:39,960
Josh back because he's pretty abysmal against the Jets. The Jets are in a lage to top one

462
00:41:39,960 --> 00:41:45,440
defense in the league. They are they are they're they're tops in terms of EPA and defensive

463
00:41:45,440 --> 00:41:52,160
DVOA. I mean, their offense is abysmal, but Zach Wilson is two and one against this team.

464
00:41:52,160 --> 00:41:56,760
I mean, in the last couple of seasons, so Zach Wilson seems to have his best game was

465
00:41:56,760 --> 00:42:01,000
against the Buffalo Bills for whatever reason. So yeah, it's going to be interesting. And

466
00:42:01,000 --> 00:42:07,160
it's a short week. A new offensive coordinator. I think Bill's Bill's fans expecting and we

467
00:42:07,160 --> 00:42:11,320
could be wrong, but Bill's fans expecting that all of a sudden Joe Brady is going to

468
00:42:11,320 --> 00:42:17,640
unlock a 45 point game out of this offense against a defense that just knows how to play

469
00:42:17,640 --> 00:42:22,920
these bills. I think is mistaken. And we'll get to this when we talk about score predictions.

470
00:42:22,920 --> 00:42:28,680
But I would expect something of a slugfest between these two teams with the hope being

471
00:42:28,680 --> 00:42:35,920
that offensively, we start to see some of these more some of these more personnel friendly

472
00:42:35,920 --> 00:42:41,440
concepts, as opposed to the strict adherence to the scheme that we had under Dorsey start

473
00:42:41,440 --> 00:42:46,600
to come through. And again, it's so tropey, and it sounds like such easy button stuff.

474
00:42:46,600 --> 00:42:51,560
RPOs, more play action or center Josh passing from under center taking traditional drop

475
00:42:51,560 --> 00:42:56,320
backs. All of those things are things that are floating out on Twitter. None of it is

476
00:42:56,320 --> 00:43:01,400
imaginative. None of it is creative. But these are some of the things that I think we could

477
00:43:01,400 --> 00:43:07,520
do on the margins to help unlock this what is very efficient offense into potentially

478
00:43:07,520 --> 00:43:10,640
an explosive one, which is what they're going to need to be against the jets.

479
00:43:10,640 --> 00:43:15,440
They are and the jets are given up, you know, their seventh best in the league and opponent

480
00:43:15,440 --> 00:43:21,000
points per game. Six, the top 10 in almost every defensive metric. They're really bad

481
00:43:21,000 --> 00:43:25,000
at fourth down conversion. So maybe this is a week where, you know, Sean McDermott puts

482
00:43:25,000 --> 00:43:29,600
it out there a little bit more and gets closer on those like fourth down calls and plus territory.

483
00:43:29,600 --> 00:43:33,760
And because they play with a lot of light boxes like the bills, you can run on this

484
00:43:33,760 --> 00:43:41,040
day as well. 30 second in the league in opposing rush or 31st in the league and opposing rush

485
00:43:41,040 --> 00:43:45,960
is rush yards per game. So like they will give up the rush to protect against big plays

486
00:43:45,960 --> 00:43:50,000
over the top. Yeah, absolutely. Like every single team that plays against the bills.

487
00:43:50,000 --> 00:43:54,960
Now I'm now again, we have never advocated for like a 50 50 split. Josh is still your

488
00:43:54,960 --> 00:44:00,160
best player. You want to put the ball in his hands, but you've got to put this offense

489
00:44:00,160 --> 00:44:04,440
in a position where they're getting more favorable matchups in the passing game. Well, so if

490
00:44:04,440 --> 00:44:09,560
teams are going to give you five or six free yards at a time with James Cook, you should

491
00:44:09,560 --> 00:44:14,400
take it. Well, and to that point, Dan, when you said you want to put the ball in Josh's

492
00:44:14,400 --> 00:44:20,560
hands, I don't think you do. I've got some statistics. So he's a Josh. Okay, well, okay.

493
00:44:20,560 --> 00:44:24,320
This is this I got to hear. I got to hear the argument for taking the ball out of the

494
00:44:24,320 --> 00:44:29,080
hands of our best player, not taking the ball out of his hands, but literally not pass it.

495
00:44:29,080 --> 00:44:33,480
You know, dialing back the passing. No, go ahead, go ahead, McDermott. Tell me what

496
00:44:33,480 --> 00:44:39,040
you got. So in 10 career games, he's a six and four record, which seems good, but he's

497
00:44:39,040 --> 00:44:44,920
two, you know, one and two in the past three. The bills haven't scored more than 20 points

498
00:44:44,920 --> 00:44:51,120
in any of the past three games. It was 17 and a loss in November last year, 20 and a

499
00:44:51,120 --> 00:44:56,560
win in December. And then of course, 16 on Monday night football to start the year. And

500
00:44:56,560 --> 00:45:01,120
that's this year. And maybe that's recency bias, but Josh Allen throwing four interceptions

501
00:45:01,120 --> 00:45:06,880
are giving four turnovers away to the Jets this same season worries me far greater than

502
00:45:06,880 --> 00:45:11,560
most other things. And here's the thing that I that I looked into, which is interesting.

503
00:45:11,560 --> 00:45:18,440
So against the Jets, he's got 15 touchdowns nine passing six rushing against the Jets.

504
00:45:18,440 --> 00:45:24,240
He has 10 interceptions and 10 fumbles of which he lost seven of those so 17 turnovers. So

505
00:45:24,240 --> 00:45:30,200
with more turnovers than touchdowns. And in four consecutive the most four recent consecutive

506
00:45:30,200 --> 00:45:36,600
games, Josh Allen's bad throw percentage as charted by a pro football reference has been

507
00:45:36,600 --> 00:45:43,440
the among the five highest percentages of bad throws per game that he's had his entire

508
00:45:43,440 --> 00:45:49,120
season. So in four consecutive matchups against these Jets with this defense, he's throwing

509
00:45:49,120 --> 00:45:55,080
bad throws at some of the highest rates of his seasons. And this is actually something

510
00:45:55,080 --> 00:46:00,480
that made me as I'm looking through this more critical of Ken Dorsey. Because if you look

511
00:46:00,480 --> 00:46:06,880
at all the games of tables 10 year, there are four game five games out of six tables

512
00:46:06,880 --> 00:46:11,440
10 year that are worth charting this stat for because in the sixth one he Josh Allen

513
00:46:11,440 --> 00:46:16,520
was out there for like one series. It was nothing game the bills didn't need it. He

514
00:46:16,520 --> 00:46:19,840
was only up for one series and 40% of his throws were bad throws, but then they just

515
00:46:19,840 --> 00:46:24,040
kind of pulled him from the game and he didn't play anymore. But the rest the other five

516
00:46:24,040 --> 00:46:30,200
games, four of those five games had Josh Allen's lowest bad throw percentage, which tells me

517
00:46:30,200 --> 00:46:35,120
something about the scheme coming into those weeks, identified that and I think the defense

518
00:46:35,120 --> 00:46:38,840
was a little bit less stacked than it is now they didn't have sauce gardener for most of

519
00:46:38,840 --> 00:46:46,320
those. But it also kind of it shows me that that table had been scheming up better answers

520
00:46:46,320 --> 00:46:51,480
for that defense which has been a solid defense for a number of years. In his years, then

521
00:46:51,480 --> 00:46:57,280
Dorsey was able to do in his years. It's it's just for some reason this Jets team is Josh

522
00:46:57,280 --> 00:47:02,480
Allen's kryptonite. And so I think that you know, it's a lot it's a tall task, but I think

523
00:47:02,480 --> 00:47:07,960
Joe Brady has to come up with some easy answers for Josh in the passing game to avoid him

524
00:47:07,960 --> 00:47:12,440
being baited into interceptions, because they're clearly capable of doing that over the past

525
00:47:12,440 --> 00:47:13,440
three years.

526
00:47:13,440 --> 00:47:18,520
Now, it's interesting you bring bring Brady into that equation because there's not not

527
00:47:18,520 --> 00:47:25,680
a lot of history on what type of play caller he is. But you can glean a lot from the types

528
00:47:25,680 --> 00:47:30,440
of personnel packages that he ran in Carolina for the limited amount of time that he was

529
00:47:30,440 --> 00:47:35,920
their offensive coordinator. And Joe Brady is funny. So funny you mentioned running game.

530
00:47:35,920 --> 00:47:44,920
Joe Brady ran higher than league average percentages of 12 personnel, 21 personnel, which is two

531
00:47:44,920 --> 00:47:52,240
running backs and one tight end and 22 personnel, which is two running backs in two tight ends.

532
00:47:52,240 --> 00:47:58,280
I think there is a world where we see the Buffalo Bills lean into more some more of

533
00:47:58,280 --> 00:48:06,000
these heavier sets to counter the the New York Jets propensity for playing with lighter

534
00:48:06,000 --> 00:48:12,120
boxes make them play pay for it early on in the game in the first and second half to then

535
00:48:12,120 --> 00:48:17,320
set up the passing game later on. I could see the Buffalo I mean, listen, Sean McDermott

536
00:48:17,320 --> 00:48:20,720
doesn't know who he wants to play Latavius Murray or James Cook put them both on the

537
00:48:20,720 --> 00:48:27,360
field at the same time. Why not? Right. Like and Joe Brady is a guy who is called offenses

538
00:48:27,360 --> 00:48:33,400
that will do that to great effect. So it's going to be interesting to see the problem

539
00:48:33,400 --> 00:48:38,140
is we don't have enough on Brady to know what he's going to do. I don't think in a short

540
00:48:38,140 --> 00:48:43,880
week or all of a sudden going to install new route trees. But I can see maybe Brady highlighting

541
00:48:43,880 --> 00:48:48,480
the areas of the playbook that have some of these RPOs that allow Josh to do what he does

542
00:48:48,480 --> 00:48:53,800
best, which is just react post snap. Don't get a preconceived notion in your head of

543
00:48:53,800 --> 00:48:58,760
where you're going with the ball pre snap and then try to force it react post snap and

544
00:48:58,760 --> 00:49:04,800
find your guys when they get open. So I could I could see this being a play action run heavy

545
00:49:04,800 --> 00:49:10,640
RPO focused game that ends up being an absolute slog ends up being an absolute slog.

546
00:49:10,640 --> 00:49:16,760
Well, and, you know, I know about the Jets first build math for the first time in I think

547
00:49:16,760 --> 00:49:23,080
four weeks, the bills have less players on their on their injury report than the Jets

548
00:49:23,080 --> 00:49:29,880
than the opponent. And so on that could come into play a little bit. I think Chas is somebody

549
00:49:29,880 --> 00:49:34,280
who has had some snaps Billy Turner on the offensive line has had some snaps. And they've

550
00:49:34,280 --> 00:49:39,880
all had been doing participate for the Jets for the first two weeks or two days of practice.

551
00:49:39,880 --> 00:49:45,440
For the bills, everybody has either maintained limited participants or improved from or did

552
00:49:45,440 --> 00:49:50,480
not participate to limited participant as of today, Thursday. So hopefully we have some

553
00:49:50,480 --> 00:49:54,800
good news on Friday and game designations for players like Dorian Williams, Trent Scherfield,

554
00:49:54,800 --> 00:49:59,440
Jordan Phillips, Mike Christian Benford are all that they're good to go and that they're

555
00:49:59,440 --> 00:50:06,120
coming back. And then, you know, the Jets are pretty banged up. Garrett Wilson, their

556
00:50:06,120 --> 00:50:11,200
wide their star wide receiver will Donald their recent selection defensive end hasn't

557
00:50:11,200 --> 00:50:15,080
really been able to get on the field. They both were limited participants up to this

558
00:50:15,080 --> 00:50:19,320
point in practice as was Mackay Bekton, their offensive tackle who's come on and had a much

559
00:50:19,320 --> 00:50:25,440
better year. So there might be some some matchup opportunities given who's going to be up and

560
00:50:25,440 --> 00:50:28,160
who's down for these two teams. It's gonna be interesting.

561
00:50:28,160 --> 00:50:33,880
Yeah, it's gonna be interesting to see what the Joe Brady, the Brady Bunchera, if you will,

562
00:50:33,880 --> 00:50:38,200
will ultimately look like for these hollows. I hope to God we have like, I hope they do

563
00:50:38,200 --> 00:50:40,720
well enough that there's an opportunity to meme that.

564
00:50:40,720 --> 00:50:45,120
Yeah, oh God, that would be amazing. That'd be absolutely. You know what though, if we've

565
00:50:45,120 --> 00:50:50,000
come up with it, chances are the internet has came up with it yesterday. So I'm sure

566
00:50:50,000 --> 00:50:55,200
we're I'm sure we're behind the eight ball on this one. But I want to transition over

567
00:50:55,200 --> 00:51:01,040
to the bills defense versus the Jets offense, because this feels like a throwaway conversation

568
00:51:01,040 --> 00:51:07,520
a little bit to some extent. But this is a Jets offense that has played well in spurts

569
00:51:07,520 --> 00:51:13,440
against this bill's defense. And the key has always been the Buffalo bills letting the

570
00:51:13,440 --> 00:51:19,440
Jets and Zach Wilson hang around, hang around. All of a sudden, it's a fumble or a strip

571
00:51:19,440 --> 00:51:25,800
sack or an interception. And this Jets offense is in primo field position in order to close

572
00:51:25,800 --> 00:51:32,400
the gap on the bills. JJ, I can't believe I'm saying this. But what are the keys? Do

573
00:51:32,400 --> 00:51:38,480
you think for this Buffalo bills defense to shut down this Zach Wilson led Jets attack?

574
00:51:38,480 --> 00:51:44,480
The jet the the Zach Wilson led Jets attack that is not scored an offensive touchdown

575
00:51:44,480 --> 00:51:49,520
in 36 quarters of football? Do I have that right? I believe I have that right. Something

576
00:51:49,520 --> 00:51:56,160
ridiculous. I'll say, you know, I before the Patriots game, I would be so bullish on even

577
00:51:56,160 --> 00:52:01,640
a depleted bills defense being able to like completely blank the scoreboard for the Jets.

578
00:52:01,640 --> 00:52:08,160
But after that Patriots game, where, you know, for some reason, McCorkle Jones came out

579
00:52:08,160 --> 00:52:12,760
and looked like, you know, shredded us. He came out and he looked like Steve Young for

580
00:52:12,760 --> 00:52:19,320
one game against this bills defense. Baby go, baby go, baby, baby go vibes for one game.

581
00:52:19,320 --> 00:52:23,400
And then immediately following the bills game the next week looked absolute trash again.

582
00:52:23,400 --> 00:52:30,600
I'm just so worried that offensive coordinators have any sort of ability and I don't I don't

583
00:52:30,600 --> 00:52:37,240
you know, I know that the Broncos thing was was not a good experience for who's their

584
00:52:37,240 --> 00:52:43,200
offensive coordinator Nathan Nathaniel Hackett, former Bill's OC. I can't I'm offended for

585
00:52:43,200 --> 00:52:47,280
Hackett that you forgot he's still in the league. I forgot because he you know, had

586
00:52:47,280 --> 00:52:53,720
such an abysmal showing and you know, mile high country. But he he's he's trying his

587
00:52:53,720 --> 00:52:58,000
best. You know, when you come in presuming you have Aaron Rodgers and then what they

588
00:52:58,000 --> 00:53:04,480
do is you know, wish Aaron Rodgers and it's you know, Zach Wilson, I think that you have

589
00:53:04,480 --> 00:53:12,560
to kind of do what you can. But you know, I liked the defense against the Broncos was

590
00:53:12,560 --> 00:53:18,920
playing pretty inspired and that Broncos offense has been much better this part of the season

591
00:53:18,920 --> 00:53:23,040
than at the beginning of the season. And I think they showed it a little bit that it's

592
00:53:23,040 --> 00:53:28,080
their whole their whole thing was, you know, try to establish the run and if you can't,

593
00:53:28,080 --> 00:53:33,640
you know, throw up a Russ would throw up a you know, 5050 ball here and there and some

594
00:53:33,640 --> 00:53:38,920
of them they'd come down with a lot of screens. And so I expect to see the Jets try some of

595
00:53:38,920 --> 00:53:44,880
the concepts that the Broncos were successful on involving the tight ends like Cincinnati

596
00:53:44,880 --> 00:53:49,960
did getting some screens and short passes going. I'm trying to manipulate the Garrett

597
00:53:49,960 --> 00:53:54,920
Wilson versus literally anybody in the bill seat defensive secondary because I don't think

598
00:53:54,920 --> 00:54:01,000
anyone of the bills defenders can cover him one on one without help and try to manipulate

599
00:54:01,000 --> 00:54:06,320
all those matchups and get some things going. The bill's defense I think they need to you

600
00:54:06,320 --> 00:54:13,680
know, establish very early on pressure on Zach Wilson to get him off the spot. The bill

601
00:54:13,680 --> 00:54:20,680
or the the bills have still have a top 10 sack percentage in the league, but so do the Jets

602
00:54:20,680 --> 00:54:26,040
and their defense. But then the Jets offense is giving up, you know, the third most sacks

603
00:54:26,040 --> 00:54:31,880
in the league as a percentage of the total plays. Whereas the Buffalo bills are seventh

604
00:54:31,880 --> 00:54:38,520
best. I'm sorry, second best in the league in allowing Josh Allen to be sacked. But like

605
00:54:38,520 --> 00:54:42,840
I said, top five in actually sacking the quarterback, I think that's going to be a big difference

606
00:54:42,840 --> 00:54:49,400
here. We saw some of this activity come back last week against the Broncos. And you know,

607
00:54:49,400 --> 00:54:54,760
I think that the bills can continue to do that, especially in the interior that line.

608
00:54:54,760 --> 00:55:00,680
Because at Oliver's number he's number one in the league in pressures from the DT position.

609
00:55:00,680 --> 00:55:07,160
And their center is a backup and their guard is a and so he's going to have some opportunities

610
00:55:07,160 --> 00:55:15,760
there. Do you have any other notes about bills, offense versus defense or this defense versus

611
00:55:15,760 --> 00:55:20,920
the Jets offense? No, I'm really interested to see what Brady does with this offense.

612
00:55:20,920 --> 00:55:25,440
I'm not expecting miracles. I think if we see any drastic changes, it'll be after the

613
00:55:25,440 --> 00:55:30,200
biweek. I think right now these bills are just trying to they're just trying to to muddle

614
00:55:30,200 --> 00:55:33,720
their way through this game in the Philadelphia game and then make their way to Kansas City

615
00:55:33,720 --> 00:55:40,080
in a couple of weeks. Defensively, listen, man, people are picking on where the bills

616
00:55:40,080 --> 00:55:44,480
are weak. Terrell Bernard has been great. But Dorian Williams and Tyrell Dodson are

617
00:55:44,480 --> 00:55:51,960
still finding their way. Dane Jackson is absolutely a target for opposing teams. And

618
00:55:51,960 --> 00:55:55,760
teams are just kind of hitting the easy button that are attacking us on defense where they

619
00:55:55,760 --> 00:56:00,400
know we are weak, which is Dane Jackson in the middle of the field with our linebacking

620
00:56:00,400 --> 00:56:06,440
core being so depleted. So if the Jets have any ability to exploit those things, I think

621
00:56:06,440 --> 00:56:10,440
this is probably going to be a closer game than the spread would would lead us to believe

622
00:56:10,440 --> 00:56:14,520
this game opened at seven and a half. There's a lot of money going on the Jets already in

623
00:56:14,520 --> 00:56:17,560
the slides down to six and a half and we're at Thursday.

624
00:56:17,560 --> 00:56:22,240
Thank you. Yeah. And so yeah, I think it's going to be interesting. But do you want to

625
00:56:22,240 --> 00:56:27,000
do some prediction sure to go wrong? Absolutely. It's our best segment. And last week, we were

626
00:56:27,000 --> 00:56:32,960
all both woefully around almost everything. We both had the bills winning in a close affair.

627
00:56:32,960 --> 00:56:37,560
The bill lost in a close affair. You had the D line with two and a half sacks. I took the

628
00:56:37,560 --> 00:56:43,080
over you took the under they ended up getting four. So we won I won that one. You had Deontay

629
00:56:43,080 --> 00:56:49,000
Hardy, half touchdown over. I took the under and I was correct because he actually got

630
00:56:49,000 --> 00:56:55,760
an interception thrown on his on his route. I had to tall and concave 49 and a half yards

631
00:56:55,760 --> 00:57:01,040
receiving he went over at 52. You had over as well. I thought that Vaughn Miller, you

632
00:57:01,040 --> 00:57:06,440
know, I was on the hope him. I thought that Vaughn Miller would get a sack and did not

633
00:57:06,440 --> 00:57:13,280
he did not hasn't done anything really. And then I had the bills getting a turnover. You

634
00:57:13,280 --> 00:57:17,120
had them not getting a turnover and they did recover a fumble. So that was last week's

635
00:57:17,120 --> 00:57:21,960
recap and now on to this week. What do you have for a score prediction Dan against the

636
00:57:21,960 --> 00:57:28,080
20 to 14 bills when those went? Oh, yeah. And and this is this dude, this is a loser

637
00:57:28,080 --> 00:57:34,280
leaves town match. Yeah. The playoff the playoff percentage goes down to single digits for the

638
00:57:34,280 --> 00:57:40,280
team that loses this game. This is absolutely a loser leaves town cage match in Buffalo.

639
00:57:40,280 --> 00:57:46,040
I mean, the epitome of must win if the bills want to salvage their season and maybe the

640
00:57:46,040 --> 00:57:52,800
last winnable game that they have on their schedule and for the next for the next month,

641
00:57:52,800 --> 00:57:56,360
right? Because they're not going to they're not going to be favored against Philly. They're

642
00:57:56,360 --> 00:58:01,360
not going to be favored against Kansas City. They won't be favored against Dallas. The

643
00:58:01,360 --> 00:58:04,400
next time they're going to be there, I don't think they're going to be favored against

644
00:58:04,400 --> 00:58:08,920
LA, depending on where LA ends up. The next game they're probably going to be favored

645
00:58:08,920 --> 00:58:15,800
in is what the the Pats and Bailey Zappie. Maybe. Yeah. I mean, this is this is a dude,

646
00:58:15,800 --> 00:58:21,400
if it's if not now when right, which again makes this this dorsi firing at this time

647
00:58:21,400 --> 00:58:26,080
at this timing, all the more all the more interesting. Listen, this is going to look

648
00:58:26,080 --> 00:58:29,800
one of two ways. This is going to look like a complete panic move by a head coach who is

649
00:58:29,800 --> 00:58:34,680
on the hot seat. Or it's going to look like a stroke of genius because we've had the next

650
00:58:34,680 --> 00:58:39,240
Sean McVeigh sitting on the sitting on the sidelines that for the past year and a half

651
00:58:39,240 --> 00:58:43,480
and haven't tapped into him yet. You know, this is only going to play out in the extremes

652
00:58:43,480 --> 00:58:48,880
because that's what the NFL is. And probably not the extreme scoring. So actually really

653
00:58:48,880 --> 00:58:54,080
like your score projection because I think this is going to be a low, low scoring affair.

654
00:58:54,080 --> 00:59:00,360
I think it's going to be, you know, I even have it a little bit lower. I have a 16 to

655
00:59:00,360 --> 00:59:07,800
10 bills win. Oh my God, the wooden agonizing slog. That would be. But here's the thing,

656
00:59:07,800 --> 00:59:13,320
the magic of Zach Wilson, if he is within six points of this bills team, he always finds

657
00:59:13,320 --> 00:59:18,640
a way to pull out, which is just so obscene because all I wanted to see I was, you know,

658
00:59:18,640 --> 00:59:24,160
I was at a PT appointment and there was a one of the providers there as a Jets fan and

659
00:59:24,160 --> 00:59:29,240
they were talking about, you know, they were just talking whole, whole ass smack about

660
00:59:29,240 --> 00:59:33,560
the bills organization, firing condoracy, Josh Allen's completely washed and I'll never

661
00:59:33,560 --> 00:59:38,960
bring it back. And the only retort I had, which is nothing because well, since two and

662
00:59:38,960 --> 00:59:43,600
one against the bills in the most recent three was I was like, yeah, and maybe the bills

663
00:59:43,600 --> 00:59:48,560
lose and maybe this is all just a mess in the season's lost. But I will give anything

664
00:59:48,560 --> 00:59:54,640
just to see that one play where Zach Wilson drops back 46 yards and then pukes all over

665
00:59:54,640 --> 01:00:00,160
himself and fumbles it because like that's what I live for. Like they, bills could lose,

666
01:00:00,160 --> 01:00:05,800
you know, 21 to seven if that one seven point score is on a scoop and score fumble because

667
01:00:05,800 --> 01:00:10,280
he looks like a complete idiot dropping back to his own 30 yard line when they're on the

668
01:00:10,280 --> 01:00:15,200
plus 20, you know, and so it's really what I'm hoping for. I'm hoping just to see at

669
01:00:15,200 --> 01:00:21,160
least a little bit of just miserable crap Zach Wilson play because I need it right.

670
01:00:21,160 --> 01:00:27,300
Just pick them off three times just like something just hit him a bunch of times in the pocket.

671
01:00:27,300 --> 01:00:32,720
So he just looks scab scared and terrified and skittish like, come on, every, every other

672
01:00:32,720 --> 01:00:38,640
team absolutely roasts this kid and he seems to just own us for some reason.

673
01:00:38,640 --> 01:00:41,440
Become zacky icing against the bills for some somehow.

674
01:00:41,440 --> 01:00:45,400
It really does. Oh God, what an agonizing game that would be if your score prediction

675
01:00:45,400 --> 01:00:50,680
is right. All right, here's my prop. But it's actually for the jets over under half an offensive

676
01:00:50,680 --> 01:00:55,480
touchdown. This is a team that has not scored in an offensive touchdown and I want to say

677
01:00:55,480 --> 01:01:01,800
the past the past 16 quarters that they've played so past four games, no offensive touchdowns.

678
01:01:01,800 --> 01:01:08,000
You're over. I'm guessing I'm taking the over. Yes, we are. We are a perpetual get right

679
01:01:08,000 --> 01:01:12,640
game. Zach Wilson. I'm taking the over to can't I can't imagine he doesn't score on

680
01:01:12,640 --> 01:01:17,640
us. I mean, honestly, it's more in the run game. I think with with breeze hall breeze

681
01:01:17,640 --> 01:01:22,720
hall breeze hall against the slow defense the bills have. Yeah. Yeah. And they're going

682
01:01:22,720 --> 01:01:27,880
to they're going to if breeze hall here's another prop for you. Breeze hall over under

683
01:01:27,880 --> 01:01:36,200
22 and a half total touches in this game 22 and a half total touches. I'm taking the under

684
01:01:36,200 --> 01:01:45,040
because mostly because I I think the bills run defense though statistically doesn't look

685
01:01:45,040 --> 01:01:52,120
great. I think that they tend to scare offensive coordinators away from the rush often enough

686
01:01:52,120 --> 01:01:56,760
by blowing up plays because of Ed Oliver mostly at Oliver Gregor. So tend to do some

687
01:01:56,760 --> 01:02:02,000
things or even you know, even to rel Bernard coming back in this game tend to do some things

688
01:02:02,000 --> 01:02:05,800
here and there that make offensive coordinators are a little bit hesitant. You know, they'll

689
01:02:05,800 --> 01:02:11,200
get that that four or five yard loss or completely snuff out of screenplay and have a Taylor

690
01:02:11,200 --> 01:02:14,720
come up and blow it up or something like that. So I think that there's an opportunity for

691
01:02:14,720 --> 01:02:19,320
them to scare them off a breeze hall touches but you're taking the over I presume. Yeah,

692
01:02:19,320 --> 01:02:24,000
I'm taking the over I think and I think this is most of these touches come in the traditional

693
01:02:24,000 --> 01:02:28,480
run game. I think I think they're going to have Zach handed off to Breeze a bunch of

694
01:02:28,480 --> 01:02:35,120
times until the bills are forced to adjust. And Zach is in a more favorable match up position

695
01:02:35,120 --> 01:02:40,480
with some of his weapons on the outside. Okay, I've got two props for you. My first Dalton

696
01:02:40,480 --> 01:02:49,080
can arcade half touchdown. I'll take this is a tough one. You know, this is a good safety

697
01:02:49,080 --> 01:02:55,760
group. This is a better than average linebacking core. The middle the middle of the field is

698
01:02:55,760 --> 01:03:03,920
tough to get against the Jets. And that is where can Kate makes most of his hey, I'm

699
01:03:03,920 --> 01:03:08,480
going to say I'm going to say under I don't think the kid touchdown you're going to and

700
01:03:08,480 --> 01:03:13,560
all the counterpoint I have to that the reason I'm taking over is that I think that Joe Brady

701
01:03:13,560 --> 01:03:19,520
has a little bit more comfortability with some of the tight end schemes. Based on his time

702
01:03:19,520 --> 01:03:26,040
in college and his time at Carolina and so and see an opportunity where he has Q Morris

703
01:03:26,040 --> 01:03:31,000
and can Cade in some some of those like two tight end looks and scheme something open

704
01:03:31,000 --> 01:03:35,320
for Dalton can Cade who who I think in in in large part is one of those players that we've

705
01:03:35,320 --> 01:03:40,180
even seen in the darkness of the last six weeks has sort of come on as a first year

706
01:03:40,180 --> 01:03:47,640
tight end and shown that he has the capacity to like really navigate NFL defenses and find

707
01:03:47,640 --> 01:03:53,600
soft spots and zones. And I think that with the Jets being such a zone heavy scheme where

708
01:03:53,600 --> 01:03:56,360
they do clutter the middle of the field, I think there's still going to be some pockets

709
01:03:56,360 --> 01:04:01,000
for him. Yeah, I think the Jets are going to try to take away Cade and digs and they're

710
01:04:01,000 --> 01:04:07,920
going to try to make Gabe Davis beat us. Geez. We're screw screw 16, 16 10 it is. Yeah, exactly.

711
01:04:07,920 --> 01:04:12,840
16 10 it is. All right, what's your last prop? And my last prop is Von Miller half

712
01:04:12,840 --> 01:04:19,200
session. I just desperately want to see it. I know under under under under under under

713
01:04:19,200 --> 01:04:26,880
because I just need him to get one under. I am under until he actually does it. Zach

714
01:04:26,880 --> 01:04:33,800
Wilson. So soon. Yeah, but he's also like he's pretty mobile too. That's true. I just

715
01:04:33,800 --> 01:04:38,440
it feels like every time he plays us he has some freaking rollout play where he hits Garrett

716
01:04:38,440 --> 01:04:43,400
Wilson for 42 yards. He always does. I just it's just it's crazy. He has his best games

717
01:04:43,400 --> 01:04:48,800
against us. He's such trash, but he has his best games against us. It's crazy. You know,

718
01:04:48,800 --> 01:04:55,160
to kind of close it out, my final thought is, hey, Bill's mafia. If I heard any of you

719
01:04:55,160 --> 01:05:00,720
on Twitter after that Monday night game, my apologies, I'd had a couple of beers and

720
01:05:00,720 --> 01:05:05,680
dude, you were on a heater. Was in my feelings. I was the roasting people who claim that, you

721
01:05:05,680 --> 01:05:09,120
know, Josh Allen wasn't the problem. I was roasting people that claim that Ken Dorsey

722
01:05:09,120 --> 01:05:15,480
was the problem. I was roasting people that claim Josh Allen. It was or wasn't that I

723
01:05:15,480 --> 01:05:20,240
was I mean, I was I was fire McDormitt. I was keep McDermott for five more years. I

724
01:05:20,240 --> 01:05:25,360
was everywhere all at once. In our last pod together, I talked about spinning out it kind

725
01:05:25,360 --> 01:05:31,960
of reached a crescendo. And I've come back to earth and decided to just be a low positive

726
01:05:31,960 --> 01:05:38,760
go bills. No, it should nice. Yeah, I I'm not on Twitter. And I had people texting me

727
01:05:38,760 --> 01:05:44,520
your tweets. That's that's that's the that's the level of notoriety you've hit with some

728
01:05:44,520 --> 01:05:45,520
of your takes.

729
01:05:45,520 --> 01:05:51,520
And to put official me a culpa up just to like try to maintain some professionalism over

730
01:05:51,520 --> 01:05:57,360
official Twitter. I'm so sorry. No, you're good. You're fine. You're fine. It's it's

731
01:05:57,360 --> 01:06:03,520
it is a reasonable emotion that you went through, my friend. Don't worry about it. All right.

732
01:06:03,520 --> 01:06:07,640
Speaking of emotions, may we for the first time in a few weeks experience some happy

733
01:06:07,640 --> 01:06:13,000
ones after the Sunday when our our bills play the New Jersey Jets. But until then, for those

734
01:06:13,000 --> 01:06:17,640
of you listening at home, like share and subscribe wherever you get your podcast, Google Apple

735
01:06:17,640 --> 01:06:24,640
Spotify, drop us a review. And as always, go bills bills.