Welcome back to the Buffalo Bread Podcast.
JJ here, as always, with Dan and Bill's Mafia.
I have to say one thing and one thing only.
Y'all are losing your collective goddamn minds out there.
I have been battling both sides of arguments for or against Ken Dorsey on this team online
with people out there.
And we're staying somewhat respectful.
I mean, most posts and in Go bills, but it's getting kind of dicey.
I think everyone's really upset.
The Buffalo bills dropped another game to fall to five and four.
And it's the worst start that the Buffalo bills have had under Sean McDermott since
Josh Allen's rookie season.
And that's where we are in week 10.
This is the Thursday before a Monday night show with the Denver Broncos, the ascending
Denver Broncos.
Dan, where are you in this in the situation today?
I feel like I'm stuck in a hamster wheel and I'm not going anywhere.
I I told you before we started the pod, I don't know that I want to talk numbers when
it comes to the the bangles, the bangles recap.
The reason being is because this was a loss that went beyond numbers.
The bills had so much invested in this game, whether they want to admit it or not, they
literally geared their entire offseason to correcting the wrong that was done to them
in Highmark Stadium by these bangles.
And it looked like they were just as far apart after last week's game and defeat as they
were after the playoff defeat.
After all of the signings, after all of the commitment in the offseason to trying to keep
things simple and being more committed than ever than football after all of that stuff,
this team was exactly as bad as they were in that playoff loss last year.
Now I said something that I know I know you disagree with and I want to walk it back a
little bit because I put it in the text chain, which God, if anyone ever saw our text chain
and then what we put out on the pod, you folks at home, you're getting the calm version of
me and JJ.
This is the filtered.
Right.
This is the.
Yeah.
This is the ties like I've had a few days to process the text chain is like raw emotion.
It's rough, mash vodka for stage, not distilled.
It really is.
So I'll throw something in the chain and you'll be like, I disagree with that.
That sucks.
Right.
And then we get and then we get back on the pot.
It's like, yeah, man, listen, you bring up good points like it's all good.
Yeah.
I'm like, frankly, sir, you're an idiot and a moron.
That's right.
And then the mics come on and we're in we're into the recording mode and we're like, hey,
man, listen, I feel where you're at.
I depart.
So what I put to you in the text was this you could make an argument that this loss
was as embarrassing to some extent as the playoff loss and you disagreed and and we
can dig into that.
But here is my case overall for why this loss was more than just a week nine midseason
typical Buffalo Bills swoon as they find themselves as they seem to do every year at this time.
They win a big game a few weeks in be at the Chiefs or the Dolphins.
And then it's like they have their own personal regular season Super Bowl hangover for the
next five weeks.
I get it.
This is the cadence that we're used to with the Buffalo Bills.
And what do they ultimately do?
They ultimately figure it out.
It doesn't always look pretty, but this is a team that always goes on a run.
And I am telling you the reason why this particular game was you could argue as embarrassing or
at least as devastating as the playoff loss was is because of two things.
One, it to me represents a failure of what the Buffalo Bills have been building, trying
to build up all offseason.
Two, when you look at where the bills are in the conference and they are currently out
of the playoff picture completely, and when you look at what this win does by way of tiebreakers
and point differentials in an AFC, not just the AFC East, I don't think the division
right now is in reach.
But in the AFC fighting for a wild card spot, what this loss does in tiebreaker scenarios
when you're carrying losses against Cincinnati and Jacksonville, not to mention the Jets who
are still lingering around for a wild card spot also currently hold a tiebreaker over
you as well in the division and in the conference.
This loss is going to make it even harder for the Buffalo Bills to get to where they
want to get.
You can make an argument that 10 wins after this loss because of tiebreaker scenarios and
point differentials and records and conference might not even get them the seven seed.
That's why to me this loss is devastating because it could ultimately factor into the
math that ends the run that the Buffalo Bills have been so fortunate to be on since McDermott
and Bean came on board and since we drafted Josh Allen.
It represents I think for the first time a true lack of progress because JJ after the
bill after 13 seconds after the AFC championship game, the bills have always come back with
some sort of counter punch.
They've always come back in the next season, better thing that they couldn't do the year
before.
This Cincinnati game was supposed to be that crowning moment where all the stuff that lost
them that game last season against Cincinnati was corrected and it wasn't.
And what's worse is that that might be the thing mathematically that keeps the bills
even with 10 wins in a competitive AFC out of the playoff picture.
That's my argument.
We're going to get into Dorsey and we're going to get into all that.
But that is how I feel about this loss.
This loss feels in a lot of ways like the first time this team does not have a recipe
for progress.
You know, you know, and I think, I think that's fair.
And I think that, um, yeah, and I believe too, there's a lot that goes into this, right?
Like, and that's the thing that I've been really spinning out on from the time that
that game ended on Sunday night to today is that it's, it's almost impossible for me to
settle on who I think or what I think is the biggest problem with this team, right?
Like I, I have, I was texting you in the text chain, like, okay, I think I'm in fire
Dorsey camp, right?
Like, I think I've found my way there because it just seemed like such a slog for them to
get anything done.
And then I like go to sleep and I wake up and I'm like, Josh Allen, though he's got
a better completion percentage and a better QBQ BR at this point in this season that he's
ever had in his career at this point in this season is not doing it.
He's just not doing it.
He's not playing within the scope of the offense.
And at there are times where I'm like putting the blame solely on Josh Allen because you
can say, well, Dorsey's not scheming the right place for him.
But you could also say, no, Dorsey has a good plan because if you watch all 22, you can
see all of the easy button check down pros that are meant to beat cover two shell.
The ones that Patrick Malone's had to learn how to take and effectively took to the point
of two Super Bowls in the last four years, right?
Like there are solutions and Josh Allen is either stubbornly not choosing to take those
those options or the offensive line is failing.
There's other things there that it's just like, okay, and you just I can just spin and
spin all day because I'm like, well, the players aren't getting it done in the scheme, change
the scheme.
Then then once I'm like, the scheme looks good, the players aren't getting it done, the players
need to play better, right?
And then ultimately, I'm coming back and I'm like, I'm not in the Bill's mafia group
that's like McDermott has hit his ceiling and he cannot coach a winner of a Super Bowl.
It's time for him to go.
I'm not there.
I don't think that it's a good idea to get rid of winning coaches who tend to get their
players up to perform at an elite level year over year.
I don't think that McDermott's a Marvin Lewis, right?
Like a first first round of the playoffs exit every year or a Marty shot, Marty shot.
Yeah, there's a lot of shot and higher comparison.
But I don't think he is that because he has been part of a culture, part of a team that
made it all the way to the Super Bowl and absolutely got stopped, right?
So it's it's a it's a kind of thing where it's like, I wouldn't want to say that just
because he's been there and got destroyed, that it's all on him, you know, I'd like,
I think that he has what it takes to get the bills back there.
But so much of it is like in the moment, they have to play their best on that day.
And that I mean, again, I'm spinning because I'm like, OK, the coach is the coach's job
to motivate his players to bring it day after day.
But then on the other hand, I'm like, well, he's not on the field.
They need to actually be professionals and do their job.
And I think that it's just oh my god, I'm a mess.
I'm a mess, Bill's mafia.
No, I hear you.
It's like a chicken or the egg conversation, right?
And listen, Josh has always been a volatile product at QB.
Even in his best seasons, he would make throws.
He would put together play sequences that you're like, what is this dude doing?
Even when everyone finally during that COVID season came on board with, holy crap, like
we have we have our franchise QB.
There was still these head scratching moments where you're like, he needs to mature more.
I we obviously should not get rid of Josh Allen because he may be the reason why it
is so frustrating to watch the bills at points, but he's also a big reason why they win.
I am also not like you not ready to get rid of McDermott because I think that's a I just
think that's a that's a rash move at this point.
I am also not necessarily ready to get get rid of Dorsey.
And I think you and I will also depart respectfully on this as well.
And it's for the reason that you said.
There are guys open that Josh could be checking to.
And it's not like it's it's not like it's always a dink and dunk.
I mean, there was a there was a when you look at the it was a Lana a Lana Getsenberg from
ESPN put up the the motion dots on that play NFL next gen.
The NFL next gen, right?
Like so Gabe Davis is route where Cam Taylor Britt picked off Josh Allen.
You had James Cook wide open with tons of yardage in front of him at the check down.
But you also had Kincaid hitting a perfectly timed release at the second level of it.
We need it levels.
Yep.
Josh is not checking his levels when he should be.
And this is the thing that I think does represent this this accountability piece on the coaching
staff that they need to somehow impart on Josh.
And I'm going to and this cuts two ways because there's something I think the coaching staff
is not doing for Josh that I think also feeds into a lot of anger here.
Josh needs to be led to that point of maturation where he is taking the free yards like Tom
Brady said Tom Brady absolutely berated Josh on his podcast for not taking free yards because
here's what free yards early in the game get you.
It gets you.
Stefan digs in single coverage.
It gets you outside.
On the outside exactly.
It gets you single high safety coverage because there's not a linebacker in the league that's
going to keep up with Dalton Kincaid.
And if you feed him enough and he does pain to the opposing team you're going to get a
safety to drop down and cover him which is going to put you in single high.
You're going to get the bracketed coverage off these clear out routes for Gabe Davis
off but you've got to be patient at the beginning of the game to get what you want.
Right.
So that's the accountability piece on the coaching side that needs to improve and that's
the maturation of Josh that needs to improve.
That's part one of this.
But part two and this is on the coaching staff is they can't just build it to be take the
free yards all the time.
And this is my frustration with Dorsey.
We've said it before no one can explain Dorsey scheme who is in like a regular NFL coach
couch.
You're probably the closest thing because of your understanding of film and study of
the game.
The frustration with Dorsey as we have said before is play sequencing because it is always
always taking the most efficient route without ever building to the explosiveness that this
team can reach.
He basically keeps the car in third gear never wanting to get to fourth gear.
This is an exceptionally efficient offense by every advanced metric.
And this is probably why a lot of bills mafia are like all these numbers are for nerds because
the eye test tells me and you know what the eye test is right about this too.
JJ this offense reminds me a lot of the first iteration of Kevin Stafansky's offense with
the Cleveland Browns.
The Baker Mayfield led Cleveland Browns his first season in Cleveland after the debacle
that was Freddie Kitchens comes in installs this new offense and it's a plotting offense.
It's efficient.
It's high in a lot of efficiency metrics but it's not explosive.
And as a result of that the Cleveland Browns led a lot of drives that were 13 or 14 plays
took eight minutes to chunk off the clock but would ultimately end in a field goal because
they didn't have the ability to leverage all of that efficiency for explosiveness.
And this is where the bills are at.
They are fine at running an efficient offense.
But if you're going to be playing behind which you are more often than not with this beat
up is this defenses moving forward you also have to be explosive because you cannot come
from behind two scores down when you're running 13 play drives for nine minutes at a time
dinking and dunking down the field and then ending up with a punt or a turnover or a field
goal.
And this is where I think there is blame to lay at doors at Ken Dorsey's doorstep because
he has built a very efficient offense where guys are open but he is not leveraging that
efficiency when Josh does choose to engage with it when he does engage with feeding can
cave the ball or he does get it to Shakir and he ends the target funnel to digs.
When Josh chooses to do those things there is no reward for Josh there is no carrot
at the end of that stick.
It's just more here's another four yard out to James Cook and that is where Dorsey does
deserve some blame.
This offense needs to build to something other than a really efficient non explosive unit
if it's going to be competitive and when that's the piece that I think Dorsey continues to
miss as a play caller and that's where I think Josh should be rightfully frustrated because
when he plays by the rules and plays within the scheme there is no reward.
The closest thing we saw was that touchdown pass to digs because finally at the end of
the game we had gotten it to concave enough we had gotten it to Shakir enough and finally
the Bengals are like you know what they're killing us in the middle of the field they
brought down extra help we get digs on the outside and we get a touchdown but there is
not enough of that happening in this offense.
Well there's also the other problem I have is with the creativity I think that it's
the kind of thing where the scheme is appropriate the actual route combinations are very good
Dorsey clearly understands what Josh likes and is planning the 2x2 that they set up in
when they're in 11 personnel you know two receivers on either side Dalton and Cain
is on one of the sides in the slot.
Yeah that 2x2 set that they used endlessly against Cleveland it has mirrored route concepts
often times and then it has other route concepts and option routes that come off of those mirrors
that it's that's smart play calling because it's basically it's saying my guys are better
than your guys one of these four people is going to get separation and that's going to
be the obvious answer and it's going to be an answer in less than three seconds for Josh
Shantlin and that those designs are good he does a good job of those the problem is he
has no counter punch to that being you know repeatedly shut down and so when the very
simplistic scheme that he rolls out there is effectively stopped by extraordinary coverage
or scheming I think that that's the thing that Lou Anna Rumo did is he said okay I understand
that when we get a 2x2 set you know four wide what we're going to see is probably these
six different combinations of routes we're going to just gamble and put our guys into
zones that cover the that make those those gaps very small for Josh Shantlin to fit the
ball in and hope that we get lucky and they did they got lucky repeatedly that somebody
was there for a pass breakup that the ball was overthrown under thrown you know there
was an issue with making completions and the problem was that once that happened Dorsey
for seven drives in the game didn't have a different way to go he should be able to
say okay you're going to do that you're going to rush three we're going to have a draw plate
James Cook in which James Cook is moving to the mesh point and running past Josh Allen
and past your three rushers for five or six yards because that's I trust James Cook to
get that and they they abandoned the run too fast I think there was like 75% pass plays
against the Bengals they abandoned the run because they're getting beat up a little bit
in the middle DJ Reader and BJ Hill were doing work and made them too gun shy to run the
ball but I think run the ball was the answer because that was the that was the counterpunch
they just needed to establish a run and yet there's nothing that builds on anything the
best analogy I can give is that when most of the better defensive coordinators in the
league are playing chess Ken Dorsey is playing checkers but all of his put all of his pieces
on the board are Kings and he never moves his back row right like he's King me everyone's
double stacked checkers and that seems powerful but it's not powerful when the other teams
are beating you to the points and having pieces that can move ways you can't move
that was the most elaborate checkers analogy I think I've ever heard in my life.
Okay, they're all King pieces.
Yes, he never moves his back row.
Yep.
No, I follow you.
I definitely follow you on that is a as an avid checkers player myself having chess being
above my intelligence level.
But um, but it dude it you bring up something so interesting with the run game.
And this is where you again, I'm not in the fire Dorsey I'm not in the fire McDermott
camp but this is where again you can lay blame at the feet of now the head coach for how
he is trying to influence the philosophy of the offensive coordinator.
We saw this tension with McDermott and Dabel where for years after a bill's loss McDermott
standard line was we need more balance we need more balance complimentary football complimentary
football right we need to be able to run the ball more and the only time McDermott seems
happy after a bill's win is when they run the ball with 20 times with James Cook.
I will tell you and I agree with you running the ball is a good counter especially in the
the schematic situation you're talking about was Cincinnati.
But I think the piece that has gone underdeveloped in this offense more than maybe even Dalton
Kincaid has been James Cook.
And I think because Cook is caught unintentionally in this philosophical battle between how Dorsey
wants to use him and how McDermott wants to use him and I actually think how McDermott
how Dorsey wants to use Cook is the way they should go.
Cook want like McDermott wants Cook to be this traditional power running back and you
can see McDermott's fingerprints all over it when Cook is not in the starting personnel
package in the game and Latavius Maria's that's McDermott being the tough edge jawed defensive
coach who's saying like I'm three yards in a cloud of dust right we're gonna out physical
you except this offensive line has never been built to be physical.
They are finesse pass blockers they are finesse pass blockers top to bottom.
All the way right all the way the blueprint that we need to establish for James Cook is
kind of like the blueprint that they've established for Travis Etn in Jacksonville.
Travis Etn leads the league in running back touches.
This is a speed back coming out of Clemson with an injury history and they're using
this dude as a workhorse.
He is only averaging 3.9 yards per carry on his traditional rush attempts over 151 rush
attempts this season which is also tops in the league but they use him to keep that team
on schedule in the passing game as well.
First down Etn gets you four yards second down because they have a bad offensive line
in Jacksonville and it's not enough time for Zay Jones and Kelvin Ridley to get open downfield.
We're gonna check it down five yards all of a sudden to Etn plays were third in one and
we're right on schedule.
That has to be how you use James Cook is that offensive chest piece and I do think McDermott
deserves blame for his interference in developing the offensive philosophy because the offense
that he wants the offensive line to do something they can't do and he gets frustrated with
James Cook because he's not the running back he wants him to be.
But if you stop trying to pigeonhole these guys into the physical philosophical scheme
you want and take them at their skill level you'll look at the model the Jacksonville
is built around its running back.
You could replicate that with great success with James Cook and he could be a piece that
helps you stay on schedule and is this dynamic counter punch to whatever these other teams
want to roll out defensively.
But he has been underdeveloped in his second year because he doesn't fit a traditional
mold right that JJ that is the order of the blame pie of this game that I would put it
in.
I would put a lot of blame at the feet of Josh Allen for simply not maturing right
at certain points in the game is still making great choices.
I also put blame in the feet of Ken Dorsey because he is not incentivizing Josh with
this scheme at all it builds to nothing.
And I put blame at the feet of McDermott because he is clearly interfering with the philosophy
that his offensive coordinator wants to build and he is somehow blind to the talent he has
in front of him.
If he were just to let it go and allow Dorsey to utilize the personnel in a way that he
sees fit and let go of some of these traditional football tropes about out physical and and
three yards in a cloud of dust like I said before he would let it go.
You would have this really dynamic piece in James Cook you could you could open up which
would then create openings for Dorsey to build in and scaffold in more that were incentivized
Josh to play within the scheme until it was time to hit those explosive plays.
It is all a domino effect that goes from coaching to the players.
Is it fireable?
No, but it's got to be fixable because right now you're out of the playoff picture and
mathematically it's going to be very hard for you to get broken.
And it's funny because like maybe I'm just maybe I'm just massively I'm an empath right
I'm super empathetic just that's the way I roll.
I love where yours has spaces I could all right.
Yeah, I love it.
No, but get this though.
I can see if I am in Sean McDermott's McDermott's feet, I'm in his shoes and I'm you know they
like to say you know stand in this moment like be present right.
If I'm present in Sean McDermott's shoes what I what I am feeling right now is that
I am playing my defense is playing with eight, no seven of my 11 starters preferred starters.
I'm playing with seven of my 11 preferred starters and four of my players are playing
with some kind of some kind of injury that's hampering Greg Rousseau's foot has been jacked
up probably a micro fracture for four weeks.
Yeah, he's just not himself.
Yeah.
I think that Oliver has been playing through some injury both Poyer and Hyde because they're
old have some things going on but have been gotten it together to play.
So there is like there's a lot going on there.
And you know, I can see from his perspective.
Ken I need you to slow things down.
I know that the fast pace offense is is like really the only thing that's clicking for
us right now.
But my my defense is gassed and this game is going to be 48 to nothing.
If you just keep putting us back out there after four or five second drives right like
and that's the that's the problem we saw is like there was a couple of drives where the
bills ended up taking 16 seconds off the clock and only going negative five yards right
like that that puts your defense in massive massive problems and they're already understaffed.
So I kind of get that I kind of get where he's like, listen, we need to come up with
something better.
And I don't think it's unreasonable for him to ask that of his offensive coordinator.
Every team should be able to play both tempo and pace like and the fact that the bills
can't.
I think there's a lot of things there.
One thing I think one of the reasons I don't think they've been able to establish the running
game is yes, they're not a line full of mallers like the Cowboys or the Eagles.
But a piece of that is the fact that they still have not committed to a style of running.
They still try to be multiple like table.
If they just went to power gap and if it's Latavius Mary awesome or went to tosses with
the great blocking that they get from Davis, Scherfield and even at this point.
Oh my God.
Who's our number 10?
Shaq Shaq here.
Yeah.
Shaq here's come on as this awesome like blocking wide receiver even as a diminutive guy.
You'll get no argument from me that we should be running the crack toss at museum.
Right.
This is what I'm saying.
So like if you had if you if you changed up your running playbook so it was more crack
toss with with cook and then you know, even some inside gap power Latavius Murray, maybe
Leonard Fournet comes up and just do what you're really good at and do it better than
anyone in the league.
That's the way to go.
Instead of trying to switch things up and have zone and sprint draw and all of these like
different concepts.
It's not a time to be cute.
It's a time to like refine what you do.
And that's what we saw in Tampa Bay.
The Tampa Bay game, the bills were, you know, they probably should have put their foot on
the gas a little bit in those drives that were ending at the 40 for Tampa Bay.
They probably would have converted one or two of those fourth thousands if they really
wanted to.
And they were too conservative there.
But you know what they did was they said, OK, this is the thing we do best.
We're going to do the hell out of it.
And that worked for most of that game.
And so absolutely.
I'm all for like, you know, I get it that you need to give your defensive break and
the defense is under manned from, you know, the first four weeks of the season, the defense
was fourth best in the league via DVOA since their 30th.
Like they are getting healed.
And I believe it.
Like I know that that's the reason that Sean McDermott has more of an influence on his
offense.
But also I don't necessarily blame him that.
I think that he he shouldn't get involved in the X's and O's of how they run the football.
But I don't think it's unreasonable for him as head coach to say, hey, the defense need
needs to get like their gas right now.
They need to break.
Give us some time.
Yeah, I listen, I agree.
And I think that's a great observation.
I think it's fine to make the request.
I think where it crosses the line is dictating how that request should play out.
I do.
And again, you are telegraphing as Sean McDermott, what you want to do every time you start
Latavius Murray over your dynamic second round tail and James Cook, you're sending an message
intentional or unintentional to the rest of the guys on that squad and to your offensive
coordinator that the identity that they're carrying with them as a team is not good enough.
And at some point, that's going to wear guys down to constantly hear that the thing that
we are good at is not the thing I want.
And because you're not good in the way I want you to be good, I'm going to ask you to continually
do it a different way.
That's going to wear guys down, right?
So like it's some point it is fair for McDermott to make the ask.
Then he's got to delegate and trust that the players in the in the coat in the offensive
coaching staff are going to execute that.
And I think I think this is probably some of Day Ball's frustration with McDermott and
the way things ended there is that McDermott was not not trusting enough to let them figure
it out.
And I think Dorsey is dealing with some of that right now, too.
Again, it is broken, but not fireable.
It can be fixed, right?
It can be fixed.
And the path to fixing it is very clear, but it's about a real it's about some really
smart important guys, a generational talent QB, a smart and savvy offensive coordinator
and a successful head coach with a great mind for the game and a track record.
Someone has to give something up in that ego game if this is going to be fixed.
Absolutely.
And I think that, you know, I think that that's that's that's where we're at is like, I read
online that Latavius Murray and some other players led a players only meeting, tried
to like re, you know, reestablish or refocus the team and get these guys motivated for
the Monday night game.
And that's good.
I think that that stuff will pull out all the stops at this point and do all the things.
Go find a darkness retreat and ask, you know, Aaron Rogers to lead it for you.
Do some shit because fake and ACL tear and come back.
Come back four weeks later, like miraculously, do some fancy stuff.
Go take an improv class, do a paint and sip with some wine.
I don't know what you have to do as an offense, but get this stuff together because, you
know, they really need to.
I think there's a couple of different things.
I think there's some player leadership could definitely rejuvenate this team.
And I looked at Josh Allen.
I think that for some reason he he had the taunting penalty early in the game, the first
touchdown against the Bengals and he looked like he was Josh Allen of old having fun playing
football.
They threw that flag on him and he deflated like he didn't look the same the rest of
the game until the very end.
I don't get that.
I love that.
Tom can fly again.
Give me one of those every game.
Oh, really good.
It was saucy and I appreciated it.
And like I also don't I'm not against the NFL for throwing that flag.
I think that, you know, you need a high profile player who's like literally being unsportsman
like you need, you need to throw the flag.
But I just, you know, he just looked like he completely lost his juice.
And there's so many games in the past five weeks that have looked that way where he just
doesn't seem it seems like he just gives up on, you know, whatever it is.
He doesn't seem to have that kind of enthusiasm or emotion or heart of the, you know, other
than the play of the field, like he's still kind of balling out.
He's still the like stallion we believe him to be.
But you know, it's it's sort of forced.
It feels like he's his heart's not in it as much and one of my friends, you know, who
who's on our, my other bills chat said, you know, and he's a, he's been a hockey coach
for a very, very long time.
Said I've coached enough men to know what it looks like when somebody's not motivating
the team, somebody's not pulling the triggers or hitting the levers and flipping the switches
that they need to.
And that's what this team looks like the way that they play the way that they perform.
They're talented and their talent is carrying them right now, but they're not.
They don't seem to be prepared or fired up for things.
And that's, that's something I really worry about.
Yeah.
No.
And we've seen it week in and week out.
What have we said?
This team plays down to their competition, a team that is locked in and is drilled down
in the week leading up to a game.
They want to destroy you no matter what your record is.
And the bills, the bills have just, they have not been that for the past two and a half seasons.
They just haven't, you know, there's a little bit of front runner in this team.
Like the Miami Dolphins have that too.
We remember those videos two years ago of Josh and digs dancing at practice.
Everything is great.
We're eight and three on our way to another divisional title.
And that's just been gone for the past 18 months.
Now, this is a team we have to be cognizant of has been through a lot emotionally.
There's been a lot in that community.
We've run through it all with the Bagoolas and Hamlin and the Snowstorm.
Shooting.
The Wegmanshoot.
Like this is, it's a, it's a, it is a team and a community that has been through it.
This is really busy singing in my head just like we do on the track.
This is the something of the understanding that the leader people really need to believe
is for them to understand their position of the leadership directly beyondounty of the
group or even moreover, to tell their brushfulness to make sure that you're not facing a gap
and allowing you to trust it.
So, in the past, Um, you know, they have 받고 fills are plans for
a group to debut and believe in not wanting to quit, but to win.
roster we have said is so old, it could just be that a lot of these guys, either because
they've been with McDermott so long and they've seen the results kind of level out, or because
they're like these vet minimum dudes that have been on nine different teams at this point.
One coach saying this is the same as another coach. A lot of these players could be blocking
out McDermott at this point. They're you could need another voice in the locker room. And
I think this is where player leadership comes into play, like you mentioned. So yeah, I
do want to say anything else about this game because I'm I'm a I'm a I'm emotionally spent
and I'm ready to talk about the Broncos, which is a a must win. Yes, absolutely. A more competitive
game than anyone thinks it's gonna be. Yeah, absolutely. So yeah, I'll I'll say one more
thing and just a note on some of the like, so you have to mention and this kind of bleeds
into the game against the Broncos, but you have to mention the Buffalo Bills injuries.
You know, it's amazing they held the Bengals to three points in the second half. Incredible
was a ball outside effort. Yeah, they were missing Christian Benford. They were missing
Terrell Bernard. Leonard Floyd has been playing hurt and sick, they were missing like a hide
in the second half. They, you know, it's just been the constant problems. The defense just
every single week seems like they're losing somebody. And so coming into the Broncos game,
we have a Thursday injury report, Christian Benford didn't practice Leonard Floyd didn't
practice like a hide didn't practice Jordan Poyer didn't practice. Some good news is AJ
Klein, bail inspector and Terrell Bernard all were limited participants. So hopefully
they trend to continue trend in the right direction so that the linebacking court isn't
just completely devoid of anybody in reserve, but it's it's a lot to worry about. But I
will say kind of one more note on the Bengals game. Linval Joseph, my friend, other than
a lot of bomb. Yeah, I was going to say other than the very the very clear, you know, and
present power crotch grab power bomb that he did of Joe Burrow, which you know, I think
who was mentioned it, maybe it was scarecrow on Buffalo rumbling. So somebody mentioned
that that Linval Joseph probably relish that because as soon as Joe Burrow established
himself as a runner, he's no longer protected as a quarterback. So picking him up putting
him on the turf and landing your whole body on him, totally appropriate. And he did all
of those things. So I don't know, I was like, I was kind of pleasantly surprised with a
street free agent off of his couch coming in and playing zero technique nose and one
technique center shade, which allowed at Oliver to play defensive end like this was kind of
this is one of those things where some of the things they showed in the second half
that stymied a lot of the offensive success of the Bengals were looks that for good reason
that the Bengals had never seen. And that's one of those things where like, I'm like,
don't don't fire Shaw McDermott like he might metal an offense too much, he might, but he's
proven this this year alone, that even though the defense is reeling, even though they have
been giving up points and yards, they're so depleted. And he's still coming up with ways
to get the best out of a out of a bunch of guys who some of them are not tier one starters,
they just are not even back quality like Tyrell Dodson is a third stringer Tyrell Dodson's
a third stringer who had probably his best game after the first two drives. After those
first two Bengals drives Tyrell Dodson locked in and did had a much better game. Dean Jackson
probably the best game of his career. But he that was the best defensive effort of anyone
on that team. And like we would throw all the flowers we want at his feet because like
we have roasted Dean Jackson and Ben like we don't think this guy should be back next
year. But he absolutely played out of his mind played out of his mind, right? And that's
the thing is like if all of those guys can put put that level of effort together, this
defense is still a top 15 unit in the league, even with not missing multiple all pros like
right. And that's I think that you can point to coaching and scheme. And so I thought the
defense did enough. I think they need to get some turnovers. They haven't had a single
interception turn over production. The turnover production and the same thing happened last
year. Once these injuries settled in with this team last year, the turnover production
absolutely went away. And they had they had no they had no escape hatch turnover producing
ability to get out of problematic drives. So it it hurt the team last year. It looks
like it's turning at this year. But again, that's why that's why the result Douglas trade
is so important because he is a guy that comes in with great ball skills. You just got to
get him up to speed. Hopefully we'll hopefully we'll see some some more of him in this Denver
game. We might not have a choice given the injuries on the squad. But hopefully we see
more than this Denver game on Monday night. Yeah, and yeah, God, oh, and I'll just say
I was about to hit a perfect transition, but you're going to keep talking about no, I'm
just gonna I'm just gonna answer for the the pod. We have to be accountable, Dan. We have
to be accountable if you can segue up of accountable do that but to be accountable to our our terrible
correctness with the Buffalo Buffalo loss, we both predicted the Buffalo Bills would
lose you by three points, me by three points. And we're both six. Yeah. And we're both in
the kind of range. You even you even perfectly predicted that the Bengals dominate the first
half. You also had Kim gate over 5.5 receptions that was on. We also thought we both thought
von Miller we get a sack he absolutely did not want to he's just not right. He's not
he's not right. No, he's not right. He actually this is like it seems criminal to say but
I think that every snap you're going to give on Miller you should give to AJ Epinezza.
Oh, at this point in the season, I want to I want to play back some pods from the last
year of you roasting up and I will always say it's possible for people to get better.
He's better. He's done much better. So yeah, we did poorly. And one bright no I'll say
is Dalton concaid has already surpassed the Buffalo Bills receptions record for a rookie
tight end with 40. Congratulations. Previous was Tony Hunter in 1983 with 36. And Dalton
concaid with 63 more 64 more yards will set the will pass Mr. Hunter for for yards in
a season. Actually, he needs. Okay, he's quite a bit more than that. He's 144. But 144 more
yards and he's got it. Listen, he and he might get am I okay to do an awesome transition
off of that or no are you still going for it? He might get that against the Denver Broncos
unit with a weak linebacking core that really struggles to guard opposing tight ends, which
JJ is a perfect segue to talk about Monday night. Bam, we need a sound effect on this
pod. And a perfect transition. I'll just be bucks. And that's that's what I'm talking
about. You can do something Ken Dorsey cannot, which is pivot off of your initial plan into
a better plan. So yes, to something greater, build to something greater. So this Monday
night against these Denver Broncos could be an opportunity for Dalton concaid to further
pad his his receiving yards for the season and get closer to those 160 or so he needs
to set the rookie record.
Sounds awesome. Sounds awesome. And and we should start JJ. I mean, there's a there is
a lot to break down in this game. And it's not just about the numbers, which I love getting
into. But this is a game with real stakes at this point in the season for the bills.
This is another AFC opponent. This is an AFC opponent who just knocked off the rival their
rival Kansas City Chiefs before heading into a buy. This is a team that probably doesn't
think it is out of the playoff race. Another loss to another AFC, another AFC unit doesn't
just bury you at five and five behind the likes of the Houston Texans. But it also puts
you at real risk for being eliminated from the playoffs potentially before you get your
buy week, which is not an exaggeration, given the the murderers row that this bill schedule
turns into in quick order here. So let's talk about the Denver Broncos game. First and foremost,
JJ, it's a home game, which I think will hopefully provide a boon to our boys because the bills,
correct me if I'm wrong, one in four on the road for an O at home, correct? No, absolutely
right. undefeated at home for no. Yep. And a lot and offensive production better at home,
everything better home, everything, everything better at home. They can run the style of
offense they want to run for the most part. They just feel more comfortable in the trappings
of of Orchard Park. But you are getting a Denver Broncos team that came off a an impressive
defensive effort against an albeit sick but still playing Patrick Mahomes two weeks ago.
They get a long period of time off to game plan for these reeling Buffalo Bills. JJ,
there's a couple of things I think the Broncos can do offensively and defensively that are
going to give us Buffalo Bills teams fits. So where do you want to start? You want to
start Bill's offense Broncos defense or vice versa? I want to start Bill's defense versus
Broncos offense because I think the juicier question is really going to be Buffalo's offense.
So let's start with the more kind of the mundanity of Russell Wilson. Yeah, absolutely. And you
know, it's interesting because Wilson statistically is having a good year 16 total TDs no rushing
TDs. I was about to say McDermott. Sean Payton has really reigned in the let Russ cook mentality
and Wilson is having one of his better statistical seasons that he's had at this point in his
career. I believe six total touchdowns to only four interceptions and one formal lost.
So a three to one TD to turnover turnover margin. But it's come in it's come in spurts
and streaks. It has not been consistent. Only recently has Wilson really started to kind
of turn it on and he has not been the reason why Denver has been losing that defense is.
But even that defense has gotten healthier in a lot of places getting some of its safety
is back. So it kind of starts with Wilson. But when you look at what Peyton wants to
do, he really wants to run the ball. Like this isn't a great past protecting offensive
line in Denver. This is a offensive line JJ that's really made to run the ball. You've
got Mike McGlinchey, the free agent signing from 49ers, I think he has been brutal and
past protection. He has been bottom quarter in the league for all that free agent money
and past protection at right tackle. But his run blocking grades are really good. You've
got Quinn Meinertz. You've got Lloyd Cushenberry, Ben Powers, who I think is a free agent guard
that you and I coveted a little bit coming from the Baltimore Ravens. And then you've
got Garrett Bowles, who I mean, been there for what seven years. He's the guy who broke
down in the locker room after a after a particularly painful loss for the steam. The season is
like all I've ever known is losing here. But this is a this is an offensive line that's
also given up sex at a rate that is top 10 in the league as far as sex percentage goes.
So what what Peyton tries to do is establish the run and he's got a dude, he's got a quirky
like bag of tools in that running back room with Javante Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin,
who's a kid that has a lot of pop. The Buffalo Bills defense Joe Wills McLaughlin Joe Wills.
That's great. Oh my God. That's not mine. That's been been soul. I think. Oh, is that
so like so so like is always on point. So like if you ever listen to the pod first, thank
you. And second, trademark some of your stuff, man, because you're freaking genius. You're
genius. But I mean, they've got some running backs that are problematic. They've got exactly
the type of talent on the inside and outside on the offensive line that's going to give
a beat up Buffalo Bills defensive unit fits. And listen, McDermott is not going to play
base. He's just not going to play base, which might actually help in a game like this. So
it's going to be our typical nickel set. Maybe some of that dime look with Jordan
Poyer playing linebacker. But this is a very beefy offensive line that is very likely to
how physical this defensive line. And I think JJ that's where it starts. It starts with
what I think is going to happen is the Denver Broncos are going to have a really good, a
really good game. If they establish the run against a Bills defense that even went healthy
was middling in EPA and rush yards allowed. Yeah, absolutely. And I think that's the biggest
problem is that if this, you know, the done Denver Broncos are second best in the league
in yards per rush. They're kind of middle of the pack and in the percentage of times
they rush. So they tend to have a pretty balanced offense. And they are 11th best in the league
in rush yards per game. You know, so, but it's funny because they're worst in the league
in rush TVs per game. So they tend to be rushing pretty well kind of between the 20s, but then
they're not as successful in red zone scoring. Yeah, yeah, they're big. These are speed guys
when it's when everybody's loading up the box. It's it's really much harder for them.
So but they're but that's the thing that people need to realize is this Denver offense is
not bad. Most of their, you know, they're pretty good. Yeah, they're above above the
fold and rushing there a little bit below the fold and passing. But as it is the NFL
goes and offense is down production wise this year, with the exception of, you know, the
dolphins for some reason. And they they tend to be a little bit better than the league
average. So you're, you know, if you're expecting this to be a kind of 28 to three, rubbing,
I think you're going to be sorely mistaken. It's probably going to be quite a bit closer.
Russell Wilson looks a lot more comfortable. He's got some tools on the outside in Cortland,
Sutton and Jerry Judy. And for some reason, he's not hitting Judy on long, long and late
downs like you should, because he's been open. It's interesting that that's not been a connection
he's really made. But Cortland Sutton certainly coming through for that offense in certain
points. I absolutely I'm hopeful and excited that the Buffalo Bills can sack Russell Wilson
because he tends to hold on the ball too long. He's got one of the slowest triggers in the
league. And it's been a couple of weeks since the bills have seen a quarterback who's not
in the top 10 in terms of release time. So I'm really hopeful that translates into some
some sack production, maybe some turnover production, because he also tends to fumble
it that's been his problem his whole career. So there's a couple of different things. I
agree with you that I think that if if Denver can establish the run and if Denver Denver
can be balanced on offense, it's going to be a long close game for the Buffalo Bills.
If the bills are able to get out to a lead early on and make them one dimensional, their
passing offense is not quite there. And their pass protection is not very good. So that's
where I think that that's the goal. Like if I had to summarize what needs to happen in
this game, it's that the Buffalo Bills need to, you know, force Denver to feel like they
have to throw the ball. And then that's that's a recipe for winning.
JJ, what is this defensive line going to look like? So we've mentioned that Rousseau is
is pretty beat up. Yep. And I've seen a lot of bills mafia Twitter roasting Rousseau for
the breakout season that hasn't been so far. But Rousseau is obviously hurt. He's obviously
hurt. You've got Von Miller, who looks like he's playing in mud at this point. You've
got Ed Oliver, who has been your best defensive lineman, I think bar none throughout the course
of the season, other than to Juan Jones, maybe who is no longer playing due to injury. But
even he's really dinged up right now. Your healthiest edge player is probably AJ Epineza.
And you've got him buried behind Leonard Floyd, who has been a revelation this season for
the Bills, but is also dinged up as well. The Bills are a team that like to limit the
snaps of their defensive line. Yeah. But where where does this rotation go against
a pretty meaty, pretty beefy Denver Broncos offensive line that I just think Sean Payton
is going to use like a cudgel and try to wear these guys down. Where do they go?
I think you can expect to see Greg Russo play. It's interesting, but like, I'll just put
this out there as a bet. I bet you see Greg Russo and Linvalt Joseph lined up inside with
Von Miller and Ed Oliver playing outside for some snaps. Because Ed Oliver is definitely
not a long, rangy speed rusher. But he's one of the healthier players that they have.
And he has better pass rush moves than most of the other interior guys. So I can see a
situation where you see some of that with Linvalt Joseph, the Bills ended up playing
three, four, and they used Von Miller as an outside linebacker. And they had him lined
up with Tyrell Dodson and Dorian Williams for some snaps and Terran Johnson even kind
of like playing sort of a linebacker role in a three, four. So you could see some of
that because that actually gives you an advantage against the way that the Denver Broncos like
to run. They like to run zone scheme, which we know from years of Peyton in with the Saints.
We also know that that's one of the teams that when Son Peyton was there, absolutely
destroyed the Bills running the wall. So, you know, color me concernicus for this defense
against that offense, especially with the speediness of those running backs.
And that's the thing that that's the thing I think we're missing the most. Even with
the age of this defense, when all preferred 11 starters were in, there was real speed
on the field with Milano with a healthy Rousseau, Leonard Bernard Leonard Floyd with that pop
kair Elam for the one game he was allowed to play. Like there was real speed and athleticism
in this bill's defense, not something we expected for the age of the unit. But now the injuries
have broken it down. You play a team that's got a great speed element at running back
in the Denver Broncos. And you just wonder where are the answers? And you may have hit
on something with this three, four alignment because you know, you can't trust Dorian Williams
yet to be your full time coverage linebacker because he still bites on some really basic
stuff, which he's at that stage in his development. But I also don't think you can afford to keep
his raw speed and athleticism and play recognition ability and the run stopping game off the
field for too many drives either.
Yeah, absolutely. I mean, I think that this is a game where like you may need to actually
lean on Dorian Williams a little bit, because he has something that that almost nobody else
in the defensive backfield has. And that's like pretty elite speed. And coupled with
the physicality and hitting to like really meet something in the in the hole, especially
if Bernard's not in. If Bernard's not in, you cannot trust Terrell Dodson to get to his
spots and fill even though he had a good second half, he had a good decent game for the most
part against the the Bengals. This Denver rushing attack is a little bit more dangerous
than the Bengals.
Yeah, no, totally agree. And they're and it's the way they've been built. They've been
built for this to or in Cincinnati, they're built for Joe Burrow here. They're Payton
has really built something for the run game here. And it's a run game that's been ascended,
I think over the past few weeks as well. So yeah, to me, it's all about stopping the run,
but getting unique and maybe getting out of your nickel comfort zone if you're Sean McDermott
to find a way to get more of your guys that can that allow you that athletic advantage
in some of these matchup scenarios. It's going to be really interesting. I am also very concerned
with matching up with the speed elements that we have against Jerry Judy. Lesson Judy,
I think only has one touchdown so far this season, I want to say. Cortland Sutton only
has 380 yards, but he has six TDs. But these are guys that have established a rapport with
Russell Wilson and absent a real receiving tight end because the Broncos don't have one.
You've got these two guys that are really tough matchups, one who is big and physical,
the other who is kind of like lighter and faster. It's an interesting dynamic. The bills
are going to meet need to meet on the outside. If Micah Hyde is hurt, we and we know that
Poyer has been battling injury, but he brings a ton of value in that timeline backer spot
as well that McDermott has started to run. What is the answer because I feel like the
roof on this defense is vulnerable. And then with Benford out potentially, you're looking
at Dane Jackson, who we know what Dane is, despite his great gaming and Cincinnati and
Rizul Douglas, who we're excited for, but is less than two weeks into the playbook at
this point as you're starting outside. Less than two weeks into the playbook and has
never been an elite treats. Cornerback has always been a production quarterback like
that. There's a thing to be said for a production quarterback and I would even say the tray
white is a production quarterback that's a quarterback who has excellent feel for zone
has excellent like hand fighting and like technique in man coverage is sticky and able
to stay at the you know catch point and be competitive there good ball skills. Like
that's what he has he is not going to be in your pocket the whole way like Kyrie Lamp
can be on his best snaps, because he's an athletic freak. So I am yeah, I'm very concerned
about that. I actually think that this is this is a game that is decided you know you
kind of alluded to this before this is a game that's decided on the trenches. The offensive
pass rush care the defensive pass rush cannot you know, interrupt the ability of Russell
Wilson to sit and hold, then this game is not going to go well because they're not going
to be hold up holding up on the second level. No, not at all against the speed and separation
ability of these these talented wide receivers.
Yeah, I agree. I think there's a lot of real problems on the boundaries in this game.
That McDermott or not keep saying McDermott man, Peyton also likes to attack the middle
of the field in the short passing game which Wilson is done with some success overall.
But I think the real vulnerabilities here on the outside it's on the boundaries for sure
in this game and over the top especially if Poir and Hyder both out right. Both are both
hurt. Yeah, listen, it is possible we're rolling into this game with nine nine over 11 preferred
starters injured injured at this point. And that actually was the story of everyone looks
at the dolphins game against the Broncos and says well there's no way the bills could lose
to a team that dolphins put 70 up on the bill.
That game was such an outlier. Well, they had three starters three of 11 starters on
defense were playing in that game. They didn't have Justin Simmons that game which listen
I don't think Simmons is like a correct a corrective point of like minus 30 on the
script. But like Simmons makes a difference in that game and he wasn't healthy for that
game. Like the Broncos have battled a ton of injuries going all the way back to last season
on defense. It's like people don't pay attention to the stuff. Yes, the dolphins had a really
good game against the second defensive unit for the Denver Broncos.
Right. Yeah, they had a good game against backups and and backups who were probably
being beaten by 107 degree temperatures and direct sunlight.
The whole hey, the bills have been there. The bills have been there. But I so JJ, I think
you and I both think the matchup is going to be relatively problematic here for the
bills defensively against this this Russell Wilson let attack. So that means the offense
is going to have to be on its a game. They'll have to turn up the temperature.
I have transitions to it's so trophy. I love it. I love it. Oh my god. So JJ, how exactly
are the Buffalo bills going to turn up the temperature to get this offense cooking?
Nice. Well, I think that probably one of the biggest things that I could say that will
work for them is that, you know, this Denver Broncos team is pretty poor against their run.
And part of that was the, you know, the massive, you know, rushing game that the dolphins put
up against them. But also part of it is like just watching their film and like they tend
to struggle a little bit and get out of position with some of the gaps that they need to fill.
And so this defense has changed pretty substantially.
You know, since who was in a remote there, but or no, who was last year that went to
the dolphins? Fangio. Yeah. I don't think but I don't think Fangio was with them last
year. Two years. Anyway, it was a two years. Yeah, because last last year was the Nathaniel
Hackett disaster. Yeah. Yeah. Fangio was consulting for the Eagles last year, I think. Yeah.
So they have a new defensive coordinator. And it seems like some of the scheme pit things
have not been as good. This defense against the bill's offense has been extremely opportunistic.
They've gotten turnovers in every one of their last few games. And so multiple turnovers,
I think they turn over the chiefs five times. And so this is that's what the bills need
to work, work out is how to keep the ball safe, make sure the Josh doesn't make these
mistakes. And they're going to have opportunities to run the ball a little bit. But I also think
that maybe the secret and trick of this game is going to be using the short passing game
as the running game because the defense for the Broncos has some vulnerabilities and
coverage at the second level, getting cook and concave involved in the middle of the
field in that three to five yard range with run after catch. I think that's going to
be open. I think that's going to be available because I think the Broncos like many teams
this season are going to try to erase digs from the game. And they've got they've got
the horses to do it and Pat Sertan and Justin Simmons bracketing over the top. So they're
they're probably going to try to erase digs and Josh Allen has to be patient and has to
try to work those underneath routes just like you said to soften the coverage later in the
game. And one of the other good ways is, you know, staying ahead of the sticks, getting
the run game going, doing some like screen and some counter and, you know, some of that
gap, gap power stuff with Deon Dawkins pulling through the hole. I think that'll be effective
against this team because the Denver Broncos detentive front is a base three four. So they
play with a nose tackle, which means that your guards are uncovered and have better angles
on the ends and the nose, which correct. And then they try to fill those gaps with linebackers.
And that's actually a place where I think they have a little bit of vulnerability. Nick
Benino, Alex Singleton and Josie Jewel are their linebackers. They've been playing Drew
Sanders a little bit too out of he was the he's a rook, right? Yep. Yeah. Nick Benino,
I think the Oklahoma edge rusher, he has he has been absolutely wild when I go back and
I look at Broncos footage because this is a dude who just blindly rushes the passer.
And if I were the Buffalo Bills, I would run the ball right. Oh, yeah. This kid or run
right at the right right to where exactly where his responsibilities the screen. Yeah.
He is like drunk, Yannick and Gakway, where he is just like over pursuing on every play,
right? But that's the thing. A player like this can actually be a little bit of a of
a troublemaker. If you fall into some of that predictability and putting Josh in shotgun
and he holds on to the ball for three and a half seconds, right? So I would neutralize
this kid and make him think twice right off the bat screen game right at him, run game
right at him. I would go right after this kid with James Cook with Latavius Murray and
any facet of the game that you want to because Justin Simmons, who is healthy and is playing
well, is likely going to have some role in helping to bracket helping pass or tan bracket
stuff on digs. The scarier thought is if it's fans, Joseph, who I think is the defensive
coordinator for the Broncos is if Joseph thinks that Sir Tan can stick with digs one
on one, well, then you can float Simmons to go wherever you want to go to go to go to
Kinkade. Exactly. Right. Exactly. And that might be what Joseph is thinking. So listen,
it is going to be incumbent on this offense to be patient and efficient in the beginning
of the game to get the looks that it wants later on in the game for sure without a doubt.
The question becomes is what what does that efficiency look like? It's not going to be
12 personnel. Is it going to be 11 personnel? Are we going to see any more of Josh action
at Josh? Josh Allen ever under center play action again, because that almost disappeared
against Tampa Bay and Cincinnati as well, where it was so effective earlier in the year.
And this is the thing, JJ, I think I'm going to be looking for schematically from this Buffalo
Bills offense. Have they figured out the stuff that works for them? Have they figured out
that having Gabe Davis run some of these in cutting routes and maybe flashing Shakir to
the outside where he is always on time with his releases? Right. Have they figured any
of those things out? Yes, tempo is going to be important and they're going to be able
to play with more tempo at home. But to your point, can they also dictate pace of play
to the Denver Broncos defense when they need to as well? It's going to be really interesting
for me to see because it was just a bunch of the 11 personnel that they've been running.
No play action, no meaningful RPOs. James Cook out of shotgun running that stupid mesh
point draw. I just freaking hate that thing. Like if we see some of that, then we'll know
early on that the Buffalo Bills coaching staff has learned nothing from the previous nine
weeks. Well, and I think too, it's like the benefit. So there's two different schools
of thought with playing ups up tempo. A lot of bills mafia that are older of the older
fan variety are talking about, well, we need the J gun, right? Like we need them to run
the K gun offense again. Oh, yeah, that was that was me. Yeah, elder millennial bills
fan elder millennial bills fan has a son has a Jim Kelly jersey and says that they need
to run a Josh Allen K gun offense. Well, here's the challenge with that. The league is so
much different. The coverages are so much more complex. And that offense was basically
just about gassing the defense, because after three or four plays, the defensive linemen
were just leaning on them because they weren't substituted out and they didn't have any any
pass rush gas left in them. So it just made it easier. And then on top of that, they're
only running four different plays out of four different formations, you know, making a total
of 16 looks. And this it's it does not work that way for this team. And so it also you
run the risk of like three plays, two yards, and you've took 16 seconds off the off the
clock and you're destroyed battered defenses back out there, which we talked about in the
first half. So I'm, I think that the better match would be up tempo, but not a fast offense,
if you know what I mean, it's the kind of thing where Josh Allen's calling some things
from the huddle, in like a muddle huddle, getting to the line with 20 or 30 seconds
on the play clock, and getting a chance to read and using some creative motion to give
him some answers before the snap. Because I think that too often, they're either getting
to the line at the last moment, because they're trying to slow things down. And then he doesn't
have a motion option. And he's just got to answer the question as soon as he snaps the
ball, he's, you know, especially when they've been playing on the road, he's behind like
they've taken timeouts and three games on the road this season, because they were too
close to, you know, getting a delay of game penalty. Yep, they can't have that that operation.
And thankfully, they don't when they're at home. And I think that's been a big difference.
That's been kind of unnoticed by a lot of fans is that that's a big deal when you can
operate your offense by getting to the getting to the line running some motion, getting a
look at what the defense response to the motion, having a sense of maybe what the zone or verse
man reads are. That's going to give him a minute, you know, half second, like a quarter of a
second option, right after the snap to know where he wants to go with that ball. So I
think they need to come up with some answers like that. And I don't mind an uptempo offense.
I think it's the most important part is giving him more time at the line to check and recheck,
roll some things, change some things. Exactly. Because an uptempo offense that goes three
and out is only taken like 30 seconds off the clock. And when you have a defense that
is this vulnerable, again, going back to your point in the in the Bengals recap, when you
have a defense that is this vulnerable as the Buffalo Bills one is, you're going to
want to keep them off the field for as much as you can. But that also doesn't mean that
you adopt this plotting, get to the line at the last minute, Josh pretending like he's
Peyton Manning trying to read the defense, right? Like, listen, Josh is a pre snap processor
has come a long way. But the more that Dorsey can take off of his plate with pre snap processing
to your point, I think is really important. Listen, I think Josh is a smart football player.
But Jot when this offense is at its worst is when Josh is stuck at the line of scrimmage
for 12 or 15 seconds, calling out checks, calling out whatever and being indecisive pre
snap, not being able to figure out what the defense is throwing at him. Josh is a grip
it and rip it Brett Farr of he's just do do it. Yeah, exactly. So just let him do it.
Improvisational. That's exactly. So just let him do it. Let him do it. Don't try to make
him Peyton Manning. If you're Ken Dorsey, they keep saying this, we're trying to simplify
the offense. That doesn't mean you need to dumb it down. But give Josh less to do at
the line of scrimmage. That's why I think that's the big thing with me with tempo is
that it's not necessarily that they're going no huddle in the gimmick that that is. It's
that playing with that pace. There is urgency for Josh not to get mired at the line of scrimmage
pre snap, calling out all these contradictory checks. He gets up, he's forced to make a
quick read goes with it rips it. And that's why it works.
Well, and that's that's it too, is I think that it's, I think he gets in trouble more
often as a quarterback when he's thinking like when he thinks that when you just get
him up there and you're like, just just just react, just like, right, get the read, set
that thing on fire and shoot it off. And I think that too is a problem. And it's weird
because it's like, I don't know how it's why it's fighting against itself. But Ken Dorsey
is calling a lot of half field reads for Josh Allen for exactly that reason. But I don't
think it's the right way to manage it, right? And that's not the right, right? Like, correct.
He's trying to simplify it by is like, okay, I need I need grip it and rip it, Josh. So
Josh, don't look across all the progressions or any all the routes. Just just look to digs,
look to look to the slot to concave if neither of their run it or check it down. Like, that's
not the answer. The answer is like, all right, Josh, here's your full menu of roots. Right.
Snap the ball and do whatever you want, like play play, play back at that's what it's
got to be. Right. That's what it's got to be. And when he's at the line, he's like,
I've got these four route trees that I don't going, which one looks pretty great. Five seconds,
snap the ball and then rip it. That's what it needs to be. And again, I think that's where
even when you're looking at the film, it's easy to blame Josh for missing open guys. But is he
is he being allowed to look at that area of the field, right? And that's part of my spin out,
like the spin out I went through in the first half of the pot is exactly that is like, I don't know
which parts of it are Josh, which parts of it are Dermot, which parts of it are Dorsey. It's not
working right now. That's the part that's clear. Yeah. And listen, this is that a lot of modern
NFL offenses, progressions are are in fact performative. And I would put Cincinnati in
this bucket as well. Offensive coordinators are scheming up easy. And when I say easy button,
like point and click, I don't mean that it's easy to run these offenses. It's not. But they're
scheming up lots of open receivers that they know based on coverage dynamics are likely going to be
open. So they're only giving a lot of their QB is one or two reads to is not going in to any
pre snap huddle knowing he's going to have four or five route trees to accommodate. He's thinking
Hill's going to be here. Waddle's going to be here. I'm going to throw it to one of those two
guys based on a half a second glimpse I get after I hike the ball. The I mean, you could argue that
the Jacksonville Jaguars do the same thing with Trevor Lawrence. There's not a lot of teams
where QBs are doing legitimate post snap progressions. Josh and the quality of this offensive
line have the ability to do that. You can give Josh three or even four reads in any given play.
And as long as he knows that they are available and he's allowed to do it,
you've got to trust him to make the right decision. When you try to contain Josh and limit
Josh's view on the field, that's where we see him forcing the ball a lot like he did to Davis and
that's Cincinnati game. You've got to remove that pressure from him. Simplify by get it's
ironic simplify by giving him less to exact. Well, it's not complicating. Give him less to do pre snap
and give him more to do post snap when he's in the moment because when he's reacting is when
he's at his best. Right. Yeah, when he doesn't have time to second guess the reader do some
different things as when he does his best. And also, God damn it, Spencer Brown and Osiris
Torrance give him time like they've been the past three or four weeks they've been sliding backwards.
Watch film on what a stunt is right like their communication and their anchors have been really
sloppy bad and Torrance has been so good this year. And I watched a lot of I watched a lot of
replays of some of the penetration that the Bengals were getting on the right side of that
that offensive line. And they're like to your point, there's zero communication when I look at
it and this could be my Spencer Brown bias. Torrance is doing the right thing. He's passing
off the right defender to Brown. The problem is Brown, it looks law absolutely lost. And a lot
of those concepts absolutely lost. So and that's to say like I was like dunking on Brown all last
season and even the start of this season. Spencer Brown has improved measurably as a one on one
speed rush, you know, tackle. He has done an even power rush like he's done quite a lot to change
his pad level to make sure that he's playing with his feet underneath them and to cut off the angles
and make sure nobody's getting around him and nobody's able to spin back inside of him like
that's I've been impressed with that in one on one situations. The next evolution of his game
has to be he as a third year player and Osiris Torrance, the two of them need to learn to like
have that preter natural sense that, you know, Mitch Morris and Deion Dawkins have developed
through their career. And I'd say, you know, the other players that the bills fat on the line have
had in their career where it's like, you know where your guy is going to be without beat without
seeing him like not even in your periphery. You just know, based on the stuff based on the pressure
based on the matchup where he's going to be and how to squeeze those gaps down and close the pocket
up and make it safe and then seal it up. And the bill should be building that quicker because
there are one of four teams in the NFL that have had their preferred five offensive line starters
healthy for all nine games so far this year. So they should be in a position where that is improving,
not regressing. Well, that's the infuriating part is like the the defensive production and
defensive stats and ratings has been sliding. But I get why like the offensive stats ratings
all looks good on paper, but it looks terrible on the scoreboard and it looks bad on the field.
And they don't have a good excuse for it. Like, you know, there's no good excuse for why this
offense isn't dunking on teams 30 points every every week. There's a lot of uncomfortable reasons
and no good excuse for why. So yeah, JJ, one other quick tidbit here that I want to hit.
I mentioned moving Shakir more to the outside in this game in particular,
and potentially considering putting Gabe Davis in the slot a little bit more.
Reason being is because Fabian Morrow, who is the cornerback opposite of Pat Sartan,
has played relatively well this season for Denver, but can be got on certain route trees
and certain route packages. And I think in this game, Gabe Davis provides them a unique opportunity
to really get the middle of the field wide open for wide open for Josh, given the struggles of
this linebacking unit of the Denver Broncos that we had mentioned before. But I think if you give
Josh two really big targets in Davis and Kincaid across the middle of the field and some of those
mesh concepts that the bills like to run, I think you can really open things up there and force
Justin Simmons, who let's just say he's going to be playing bracket coverage over the middle of the
field on Davis, you then open up the opportunity for Shakir to exploit a cornerback like Morrow.
And if Diggs can win some of his matchups, you get some advantages on the outside and the middle
of the field because there's only one Justin Simmons to go around in this particular game.
So there's definitely some matchups I think the bills can exploit that'll work to their advantage
if they do it, if they can just program it in and execute it. That's all it's about.
We talk at Nazima about what this team needs to do to win, but at the end of the day,
James Cook needs 20 plus touches, Dalton Kincaid needs over under five and a half receptions.
Like we know what this offense needs to do. It's just a matter of week in and week out,
they choose to do the thing for whatever reason that is least helpful to them in that game.
So hopefully it's a course correction this game. Are you ready for some predictions?
I absolutely am. Yep. All right. So let's start with score. Listen,
there's a must win for the bills. Absolutely. At home, prime time, playoffs are on the line,
dolphins are on a buy this week. So you can gain a half game and you can tie them in the win column.
It's a must. It's an absolute must for the bills to have and I think they need to have it.
The line on this game is seven and a half points. I think it's probably a little high.
I get the bills have been good at home for the most part, but there is no reason to think that
this bill's unit is should be more than a touchdown favorite against what has been an
ascendant Denver Broncos team. So I've got this game, JJ 2824 Buffalo Bills win.
I like it. I like it a lot. I'm pretty close to you. I have the bills win 31 24. I have them not
covering but almost getting there. And I have them. The important thing for me with picking this game
and for the bills is like, I do think I hope that they come out with kind of renewed
fire on offense because that last week was not, you know, was not it. And they haven't broken the
30 point threshold since the Miami game. And they I think they need to to prove to themselves
that they're capable of it. And I think this is a good game for that. But I do think that the defense
struggles to keep up because the Broncos have some they have some horses, they have some guys.
And the defense could we could be looking at neither of the two starting safeties and possibly
not having the one starting linebacker left on the roster. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, the reality is
the offense is going to have to go out and win this game. And the narrative, listen, man, if the
bills lose this game, the narrative writes itself for fins up nation. We laid 70 on this team and
you guys couldn't even lay 20 on them and win the game, right? It's not a narrative. Anyone wants to
be exposed to it. It falls squarely into third, you know, second slash third in the AC East.
Yeah. Yep. Correct. Correct. Behind the the vaunted New Jersey Jets who who Robert
Sella doesn't doesn't know why he's still starting Zach Wilson. Hey, you got literally set in a
press conference. You guys got me there. I got no idea. I don't know. He sucks. I don't know.
We all know that's whatever my bad, I guess. I don't know. He says stuff like that. I'm like,
I like Salo, but he's he's a defensive coordinator. He's not a coach. Yeah.
All right. You got any props because I've got I've got some that I think are probably going
to infuriate me. I've got one Dalton concaged 40 and a half yards receiving over over it's
smashed that over smash that over. Absolutely. Buffalo Bill's defensive line and I'm going
to give you the whole line over under two and a half sacks on Russell Wilson. Oh, okay.
I'm going to go over just hopeful over. I'm going under realistic under. I just don't I don't think
they've got it. I don't think they've got it. And without the threat of a Matt Milano crashing down
through the gap or a Terrell Bernard crashing down and sugaring the gap, I just I don't I don't
know that there's any real juice on this defensive line without beat up there. They're very beat up.
That's that is a problem. I'm going to that's the problem. Like I said, it's a hopeful over.
Yeah. I've got maybe maybe Russ runs into one. Von Miller. I've got a half sack. He's playing
against his former team Super Bowl winning Broncos team. Does is this a game where he shows something
under Dan under I'm going under. You know, people made a lot about that tweet he put out
congratulating the Denver Broncos and finally beating the Chiefs after 16 straight games.
And I people are like he's not loyal to the team. He's on no like but he he spent almost his entire
career in Denver. Like would you like he he he he is the modern face of that franchise.
Like that'd be like that'd be like people get like getting down on Stevie Johnson when he's
playing for like the Houston, you know, Texan saying great job, Bill's on finally beating Brady.
Like yeah, seriously, way to get the curse off. Right. Yeah. No, yeah. But but that being said,
I'm taking the under okay. He's in the tank for the Broncos now. Yeah. I just until until I see it,
I'm not going to put money on right like he he has not looked himself. No, absolutely.
Take the under and it still hasn't been a year from an ACL tear. So like I'm still patient with
Vaughan Miller. Yeah. And I think we should be I think we should be but his snap count should
probably still be limited in this game, which is why I'm going to take the under. Yeah. All right.
I've got here's one for you.
Deontay Hardy over under half a touchdown. Oh, I'm slamming the under because I think that he's
been a waste of an investment. They have they have run exactly two shot plays for him all season.
He was supposed to be this deep threat. Take the roof off the defense type hit that seam on one
on one coverage and not nobody's catching him. Yeah. Yep. Yeah. So but here's why I think
here's why I think it is over. I think if you are Ken Dorsey and you're going to incentivize
Josh to play efficiently, there's got to be there's got to be a carrot at the end of the stick. As we
said, it's it might not be digs in this game like it was in that Cincinnati game, but it could
potentially be Hardy because there is no one other than Pat Sartan who will be glued to Stefan
Diggs. There's no one other than Pat Sartan who can keep up with Hardy's speed. Yeah. So if there was
a game where you were going to throw the ball to the fastest player you have on offense and the guy
you paid $5 million to in the offseason to catch deep balls from Josh, it would be this flipping
game. All right. I like it. I'm yeah, I'm going under, but I appreciate your your hopeful over.
I am I am full of hope. I am full of hope that this is going to be an agonizing absolutely agonizing
wash on Monday. I've got a full full Bill's defense. My final prop Bill's D.
Point five turnovers generated under. Okay, just can't do it. I knew it. I just I had already
typed under before you even said anything because I'm taking it over. I think that they finally
get some turnover luck. It's been dude this week's dude. This is a team that literally went eight
straight games last season, and they weren't even nearly as banged up as they were as they are now
eight straight games last season without producing a single interception. Yikes. Like and all they
were missing last season was Trey White. But that for that stretch in the secondary. I mean, I
dude, I love this team. And I think this defense is this has to go down. I know you can't win
coach of the year just for being a defensive coordinator. But the guts and the balls that
this defense is playing with and that the way McDermott is scheming it is like it should be
taught in football coaching classes. All that stuff being said, they cannot produce a turnover
to save their life. They can't stop the drive. They can't stop the run. They just can't. So
I'm listen, I'm gonna I'm gonna take the under again until they they prove I should put money on
the over. Okay. Yeah. All right. Well, that was well, that was not as cathartic as I wanted it to
be. I know I'm like, All right, now it's time to wrap this up. And God, I still feel empty inside.
Until I see this team play, the game I know they're capable of an offense. I'm just up this.
Like I was I'm I've got no juice for even turning on the games like the last couple of weeks. I'm
just like, I guess I got to watch this game. I know. Well, there's that and I'm 40 and they're
playing a lot of late. Yeah, that was exactly absolutely brutal for me. That is brutal for me.
So yeah. All right, JJ, it was fun. If the bills aren't, aren't fun to watch, at least we're fun
to listen to. And for all of you listening at home, like, share and subscribe wherever you get your
podcast, Google, Apple and Spotify. And as always, go bills. Go bills.