All right, welcome back to the Buffalo Bed podcast. I'm JJ and with me as always is Dan.
I'm back off of IR. Thankfully, you know, I'm on the mend. Nothing bad planned plans
surgery to repair, you know, 20 plus years of self-inflicted wounds in my shoulder before
I become a dad. So really excited about, you know, being better incrementally. How are
you doing, Dan?
I am good, JJ. I like the message you're you're opening what up with this on this coffee pod
a Saturday morning. It is progress, not perfection that we seek. And I'm glad that you are making
some progress in your recovery at this point.
And that's what we seek from ourselves and from our team. It is week nine, the Buffalo
Bills last week, Thursday night football played against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers led by first
overall pick in the same draft as Josh Allen Baker Mayfield. They somehow kept it close
right at the very end. Coming down to a, you know, a bomb Hail Mary that landed in the
end zone about a foot away from a Tampa Bay receiver who was uncovered at the same time
that everyone in Bill's secondary was actively tackling somebody. So, you know, there could
have been 100 flags on that play and it could have gone the wrong way. But thankfully, the
ball was pulled out. And we're on to week nine and the Cincinnati Bengals probably,
you know, as we're talking pre pod, the biggest measuring stick game of the bill season post
dolphins. Would you agree?
Yeah, JJ, I would totally agree. I mean, listen, that playoff game. And listen, I'm gonna I
want to contextualize all this by speaking with respect to the Cincinnati Bengals. The
Debar Hamlin stuff is stuff that we're going to have to acknowledge is also kind of hanging
over this game. It's been very apparent in a lot of the pregame press conferences that
the Bengals and the bills had like that moment last season for as tragic as it was really
linked, I think these two franchises in a very positive way. That being said, the Bengals
absolutely as we know destroyed the bills in the playoffs last season to the point where
that loss was so severe as an organization, they retooled their the entirety of their
interior offensive line. They invested premium draft capital and OSIRis Torrance, they brought
on Conor McGovern, they brought on David Edwards to create depth of position where they had
a real vulnerability that was exposed by the Bengals. And that game is the reason why Leslie
Frazier is no longer the DC for the Buffalo Bills as well. As an organization, if you're
the Buffalo Bills, this game coming up on Sunday night against the Bengals, this is
the prove it game so that you can say that everything that you have done since that devastating
playoff loss last season has been worth it. So this for a lot of different reasons JJ
is a big game, not just in the standings, but I think for the I think for the the validation
of the franchise and the moves that it has made over the past eight to 12 months, this
game is the game where it either pays off, or it doesn't and you see exactly how far
behind the bills could potentially be when compared to some of these other AFC contenders.
So this is a big game for a lot of different reasons and I know it's easy to talk with
hyper hyperbole and the NFL because it's week to week and it's easy to to overemphasize
and exaggerate things. But if you're the Bills franchise and a Bills fan, this game is a
prove it game because everything that you have done leading up to this has been to make
this moment right from last season. Well, that's that I mean, even Brandon Bean in his in his
postseason press conferences every year has said that they use the reason that they left
the playoffs as the you know, as the the measuring stick for exactly what they need to fix like
what what were they incapable of overcoming in terms of roster in terms of scheme that
that is the blueprint for how they run their offseason and to get better and in different
years that's been fixing the offensive line that's been adding a weapon like Dalton concave
when all the good wide receivers were gone from the first round. It's different things
like that in order to kind of give yourself the chance the next time that that opportunity
comes around to not kind of fudge it up. Before we kind of move on to that as a whole, do you
want to just very quickly I know it's been over a week now at this point from the Bucks game but
any any observations you have about the team offense defense, how they operated?
Offensively the Bucks game was fan service that that game was like the rise of Skywalker,
you know, after the last Jedi and Disney feels like feels like they need to course correct for
whatever reason the last Jedi was a great movie and I don't care if you stop listening to the
pod as a result of this. But like for whatever reason, Disney feels like they need to course
correct. They give way more fan service in the final movie and it was an okay but not great
experience. That was my experience watching Thursday night. It was an okay but not great
experience because the bills finally started to do stuff that all of us couch and Twitter coaches
have been telling us to do the telling them to do they get concaid more involved. Josh runs the
Balmor. They stop the target funnel to digs who still had a really good game and still got his
looks, but got them at different points after other guys like Coleal Shakir and Gabe Davis got
going. And they used Gabe Davis in route trees, other than clear outs for maybe the first time
all season. So as a bills fan, and as someone who watches these games closely, all of that
stuff was very validating to see on screen. But you're left with a little bit of emptiness
and that where the f has this been for the previous seven weeks of the year, right? And then you wonder,
is that game a representation of a commitment to continue to do those things? Or are we going to
see the bills regressed to some of their former bad habits? So from a play calling standpoint
and a scheme standpoint, best game is a stretch. But it was the most comfortable. I saw Dorsey
calling plays. And when they introduced the the J Gun offense with with Josh Allen, this
no huddle all tempo thing for key pieces for key pieces of the of the first half, I thought it was
a really nice wrinkle that all of us have been begging for. Is it going to be sustainable? I'll
be very interested to see how it plays out against the bangles because the bangles are a defense that
likes to be multiple. They don't sub in their D line a whole lot, they pretty much stay with the
11 starters on the field for the most part. So it'll be interesting to see if any of this up
tempo, no huddle stuff will be used to kind of affect how the bangles are going to style their
defense from play call to play call. So a lot to like, but still a feeling of like, is this going
to be how how we're going to experience this team moving forward? And if not, kind of what's it all
for? Well, thinking that what's at all for category, you know, part of the reason that the big game
against the Buccaneers was so much closer than it should have been was that the bill stalled out in
the third and fourth quarter, end of the third and the fourth quarter on offense multiple times.
Sean McDermott got got roasted online for playing too conservative and punting on fourths.
I don't know if I hate that though, because the defense was playing very well. And Sam Martin was
cough and corner, punting everything like your punters that hot, I guess I don't, you know,
lament them. Letting some of those like fourth and seven fourth and nine plays go go to punt.
But I think that part of the reason that it stalled out was that Dorsey's plan,
it was all about a simple scheme, expertly executed. And I think that that's that won't
necessarily work against even above the above the fold top half of the league defenses in the
NFL, because even the Bucs started to figure it out near the end, right? Like they started to
figure out what what 10 RPO plays the bills were trying to run against them, and just stuffing
the the passing lanes for those or getting up on the line if they or giving a look that they
knew Josh would would hand it off into but then like immediately run blitzing those those gaps.
So I'm sure that Cincinnati saw that film, I'm sure that since he's not going to give Gabe
Davis a five yard cushion on the line or in the slot, because that was where the bills made a
lot of hate. I'm sure that the the Bucs are gonna are not going to ignore Kincaid or Shakir, like
I'm sorry, the Bengals are not going to ignore Shakir or Kincaid like the Bucs did a little bit.
Because the Bucs sold out the stop stuff on digs, and only he only got his production after
they started shifting coverage over to the other players on the offense. So correct. And that that
I think is a strategy that can work for the bills all season, because they've shown through the
through the first half that they they will try to feed stuff on dig. So if teams are shading to him,
Josh has to go to the other options. Because otherwise it's stalled just like we saw we saw
on so many other things. So I thought some things were nice. I thought one thing I definitely want
to talk about is that, you know, Alan shoulder is sort of still a big time concern. I'm glad they
had this mini by but he clearly he seemed to throw the ball really well. The touchdown past the Gabe
Davis across the back of the end zone was like a laser beam. So I'm not so worried about arm
strength. I just you know, don't want him to be uncomfortable. Being uncomfortable throwing, you
can kind of try to pull some heat off stuff and end up or putting too much heat on things.
And then I'm being inaccurate. So I hope that you know that had some time to recover and calm
down a little bit. I think that feed James Cook is an answer. They I think they gave the Tavius Murray
too many touches in that game. Because it's a continued trend. Yeah, because even even when
they're like, Oh, this is a set or this is a series of plays where we want a big back like the
fourth, you know, four minute offsets at the end and things like that. The Tavius Murray is older
and slower. That's just a reality. I really like the Tavius Murray, I think he has a lot to offer.
But as soon as he comes in the game, in a running situation, the other team just loads up against
him. Right. And so it's it's sort of like the first season that motor single Terry was with the
bills. And they had Frank Gore, right? Like Frank Gore looked absolutely abysmal. But it was because
as soon as Frank Gore touched the field, they just stacked the box. And then when motor single Terry
came in the field, they would usually use a lighter box as they anticipated to pass. And he
was able to run against light boxes. His whole rookie year looked amazing. And, you know, I think
that that's something that they could do with Cook, because he is such a receiving threat.
He tends to get better looks in the run game, because they're there, you know, it's more likely
that a play action and then a pass comes off of a set where where Cook is in. But if the Tavius
Murray is in, it's almost guaranteed to be a run, especially the down distance time, the situation
calls for it. So yeah, they try to get it, they try to go a little sneaky with the two and out of
that jumbo package with David Edwards and Latavius Murray. They try to throw it out of that package
a couple of times, just to keep the buccaneers honest. But no one believes that as an actual tool
in their tool belt, that they're going to deploy with any kind of real success. And you know,
oh, God, yeah. Oh, and off of that, the throwing out of jumbo, the like naked boot with Josh Allen
with his back to the defense has been blown up three times this season. Nobody's nobody's fooled
anymore. It's where all all those rushers are coming free. Like even the Josh did a better job
checking at the line, I think Dorsey anticipated better where where pressure was coming from.
But man, those naked boots leave Josh right out there. And that's where you still see the bills
giving up a lot of free rushers coming behind the line of scrimmage. Well, those those situations,
the protection, it's not the protection scheme is not being shifted or whatever, it's that teams
basically go into those situations. And it's like if I'm the if I'm the free man on the end of the
line, if I'm the CB, and the handoff doesn't go, my my job on the defense is to just run balls out
to Josh Allen and get in his face. That's what happened on the one picky through. Yeah, exactly.
And that's actually that's happened a couple of times that I think he's got two interceptions
on plays like that, where he just tries to force it tries to get rid of it. But that it's just a
bad play design, I think that the league has that one figured out, come up with something different.
And that could be, you know, booting in a different direction, where you have some
support in front of you, or a closer, clearer option in front of you so that the blitzer leaves,
you replace the blitz with the ball. Boom, you have like a 50 40 yard gain. So yeah, he needs
more better options, because in that in those plays that they get blown up with a CB rush,
it's always the read that he's looking for is somebody crossing from the bunch side of the
formation in front of him. And that takes three or four seconds, he doesn't have that if there's
a free rusher in his face. Right, absolutely. So that was that was the only point I make on that one.
And then I think both of us are in agreement that the the sprint draw play from shotgun,
where Josh Allen literally has to wait for the shotgun snap, and then has to run two or three
steps to his left or right to get the barrier to James Cook just burn that play never never do it
again. You don't want an I know Josh Allen is an athletic freak. You don't want Josh Allen being
the part of the play, the most critical part of the speed of that play, getting the ball over to
cook and while Cook stands flat footed, and just waits for defenders to bear down on him,
you want Cook to be moving so change that to a sweep, change that to an inside zone, so that Cook
is moving past Josh Allen static position when the ball is snapped him. Because otherwise,
you just it just seems stupid. It's a stupid play to have the slower of two people in the backfield
be the one that has to move to the mesh point. And why would you not want your fastest guy and
James Cook with a full head of steam hitting the line of scrimmage or hitting the hole, right?
It's it's a poorly tailored play that does not work to the skills and strengths of the people
that are executing that play. Well, especially since we since we talk about all the time how the
bills don't have really a screen game, because they don't see man coverage that often, then
if for the same purpose, you know, if you can't run screens, you can't run the, you know, the
sprint draw, because the players that are rushing the passer are also, you know, you have a defensive
backfield, you have linebackers who are keyed in to make sure they keep their eyes on Josh Allen.
All of a sudden, they see Josh Allen running towards the running back. They have that half
step or full step to get to the hole and plug that thing before the mesh even happens in the
handoff even happens. Yeah, absolutely. It's it's a play that just needs to die. It needs to never
be called again, for sure. JJ, any other highlights from this game or anything that you think will
translate well to the bangles game, because we also got to talk about Resoul Douglas for as good as
this defense played against a slightly below average Bucks offense. It was very clear that the
bills were struggling in coverage and being to his credit, did something to address that at the
trade deadline. But before we get into that, anything else here from this Bucks game that you
think translates to Sunday night? Yeah, I think we actually see the bills ended up moving into a
four one six alignment on a number of third down, long and late plays that were clear passing downs.
And four one six being that they had four down line men on the defensive line pass rushing,
one inside backer and that was just her Al Bernardo, they took everybody else off the field.
And then six DBs. And so that was their normal nickel set with, I think it was it was Benford,
Taryn Johnson and Dane Jackson at this time. And then Micahyde, Jordan Poyer and Taylor Wraps.
So it was a dime look with three safeties. And the thing that was interesting about this game
that we haven't seen before this year was that they actually had Taylor Wrapp and Micahyde
play the deep middle, you know, the covering the top safeties. And then they brought Jordan
Poyer down into like almost a linebacker look. Oh yeah, he was he was a linebacker. So he was a,
you know, hunting positionless kind of DB, which I think is exactly the kind of energy you get from
Jordan Poyer when he comes down in the box. And I thought that that was brilliant, because basically
what they've seen through a few games now is that and we've known for years to roll or Tarrell
Dodson is an absolute liability in coverage. I think he's a nice player in terms of early down
stuff in the run. He can do some good things. But he is not a player you want matched up against a
rungback or a tight end or an especially not a slot receiver ever, ever in a single snap,
because he will get picked on and he will lose lose ground. Dorian Williams is fast enough to
be good in coverage, but is just not disciplined and doesn't understand his assignments. It doesn't
seem or maybe doesn't understand the assignments is not as familiar with the assignments. It's his
first year as a rookie, just getting into the league. So he doesn't have the nuance of this defense
and kind of where he needs to squeeze routes. And that he does need to stay disciplined and not get
thrown off by run looks and the QBs eyes. So Dorian Williams has a ways to go. I still have hope
because he has the athletic gifts that Tarrell Dodson doesn't have. So replacing those two
players with poyer and knowing that they've tried to replace those two players with rap
in games in the past and rap has looked very poor in the box. For some of those same reasons,
you know, he's taken the candy from the QB he's in the wrong place out of position,
but has looked better over the top. So I think that that's a smart, smart application of talent
when you look at the scheming to say we have these are the guys we have there that can do this thing
of the best. Let's put them in the right positions. Yeah. And that's what I like the most about how
McDermott's been running this defense this season. He is he is not scheme agnostic, but he is more
willing, I think, than Frazier was to tailor certain aspects of the scheme and these formations to
the strengths that he has on the roster. Yeah. And so in transitioning to talk about the roster
a little bit, I found this gem on the lovely interwebs. And I'll credit Reddit user teapot dash
error dash 418. In terms of building the roster. It is beans prayer. Brandon Bean, who art at one
bill's drive baller be thy name. Trade deadlines come, thy deals be done on the phone as it is in
the mocks. Give us this season some healthy starters and forgive us our shitposts, as we
forgive those who shitpost against us and lead us into dead money, not into dead money, but deliver
us from injury for thine is the roster, the cat space and the draft picks forever and ever, Alan.
Wow. It's profound. It is poignant. It really resonates with me on several emotional and
intellectual levels and spiritual. I am I feel like I've had an out of body experience listening
to that. You're very well. Let's talk about those additions though. Yeah, it's a it's a beautiful
it's a beautiful poetic transition into talking about playoff Lenny Linvol Joseph and our trade
deadline acquisition, Rizul Douglas, which is where I kind of want to start with that, JJ,
if you're into it. So absolutely. So Rizul Douglas was probably not on a lot of people's
trade deadline bingo card for the bills. We were all kind of hot on Jalen Johnson, who this season
has been kind of the it DB at the trade deadline ends up not getting moved by Chicago, Chicago
for the second straight year just does some absolutely crazy shit at the trade deadline,
giving up another number two pick this time for a high high ceiling, somewhat underperforming edge
in Montez wet from Washington. But that is neither here nor there. Jalen Johnson ends up not getting
moved. Where does that the asking price from Chicago is simply way too high. So being pivots to
Rizul Douglas from Green Bay, a guy who a lot of us did have on our Madden GM bingo cards in free
agency the past couple of years. So this is a guy who in Green Bay was picked up off the unsigned
free agent draft stockpile, ends up having some really great flash moments in Green Bay,
had a free agent heading into this season that sends a two year deal with Green Bay,
a lot of us in Bill's mafia hoping that Bean would be able to work something out with Douglas,
because he is a great cover corner in zone. He also has and I would say with Trey White off
the roster now for injury, I feel safe saying this, he immediately has the best ball skills out of
anybody in that secondary room. And I would put hide and poyer there in that as well. Douglas has
10 interceptions over the last three seasons, the majority of which have come in the second half
and fourth quarter. So this guy is an absolute closer. He doesn't just know where the receiver
is going to be, he knows where the ball is going to be. He's great at hopping routes. He is sticky
in coverage, his footwork mirrors even some of the best wide receivers in a great way. And he's
got a nose for the ball. And this is the thing JJ, I think, that has the potential to set this
Bill's defense as banged up as it is on a better trajectory. Because we saw last season when they
started getting banged up, we talked about the differentiation between the amount of turnovers
they had produced in the first half of the season versus the second half of the season.
In the second half of the season, there was almost no turnover production. So this high floor,
low ceiling defense, they were they were playing with all the injuries on the roster. It was a lot
of Ben, but don't break, but they were letting bad teams stay in games with them as a result.
In Douglas, you've got a guy who can take some of that and flip the script with a couple of
different turnovers, a couple of deflected passes. A guy like that in his turnover production
could potentially be a key factor in helping get this beat up Bill's defense back on the
right trajectory and off the field in moments where you you really, really need it. So he
really could be we're hoping a clutch performer and a closer for this defense, not to mention,
he's probably the best cover DB now that we have in that room. He absolutely is. I mean,
you know, and that's that's from his last three seasons. I've heard of some girls mafia male
I believe is a scrub. He was on he was on the practice squad. He you know, before a green
bay picked him up. How do you how do you pray that like that's asinine. It's the player is who
they are now how who they were three seasons ago is nothing yet. By that measure, you could say
Kurt Warner before he was running the greatest show on turf is just a bag check guy at a grocery
store. Right. Seriously, I mean, how are you telling us that this is not a good pickup?
And let's let's cover the pickup as it was, you know, the transaction as well as they,
you know, the bean got a little bit of heat from some of Bill's mafia. I think the people who
understand football and know what they're getting in this player are very happy with this trade.
I feel like we fleeced the green bay packers. We took their best coverage corner by stats. I
know that they have a first round pick on the other side. But we took their best coverage corner
on tape that I can see from the team who still has a year left on his deal. And all we gave up
was a third round that might be a conditional third, which is the end of the third for Green Bay's
fifth and Russell Douglas. And the bills are already repersume going to be picking at the end
of the round anyway. So even if it's their natural third, it's not going to be until like the last
few picks that the draft we hope. And then Green Bay's pick is going to be probably especially
not that they lost for school Douglas is going to be a top eight pick in that in the fifth round.
So absolutely, I'm very, very happy with the compensation. I feel like we took more from
that way more from them than they're they're taking from us. We already have, you know,
the natural third and the possible and the comp pick for Tremaine Edmund. So we're not really
losing too much. We're still going to go into the draft with 10 picks, because we got a pick and a
player. And so I'm very excited about that. Russell Douglas is instantly the tallest,
thickest CB on the team, and the most natural tackler. And I think those two things really
help out too. And it's the kind of thing where like, if the bills have Russell Douglas, and he
has a blow up season right now, I wouldn't be opposed to Brandon being giving him more money
and getting him on the roster for three or four more seasons. From this point in time in the
off season, you know, restructure something, give him a he'll probably take a reasonable deal as a
starter to continue with the bills. And he's 28 29. So if you can get him through his age 32 season,
and essentially, you know, barring injury or other setback, have one side of your, your defensive
backfields kind of set up, that'd be really good. Because I think the problem the bills have right
now is that with Trey white's injury, with the inconsistencies of danger, and I think that
Benford looks great, I think he'll probably be a decent level starter, he'll be a Levi Wallace
level starter for probably his career, which you can do worse than. And then what the heck's
going to happen with Kairi Grealem, hopefully the switch turns on for him as well, like it did for
Russell Douglas after a few years of underperforming and losing starting jobs. And if so, you know,
then the bills will be set up better. But right now, just just like you make the point always, Dan,
they have an aging defense, and they need to find ways to patch and build up that defensive
backfield before the inevitable loss of Micah, you know, Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer over the next
probably two or three years, I think I can imagine they're both starting in the NFL in three years,
because yeah, their age, they've clearly lost a bit of a step. I love those guys, they're great.
But the NFL careers do end. Yeah, no, it's true. And you've got to you've got to gird yourself
for that inevitable end. And it'll be tough with Poyer and Hyde and listen, even Trey white, I mean,
who knows how he's going to come back from the security's thing. But listen, the bills can save
10 million in cap space next season by designating him as a post June one cut. Yeah. So it
resuel Douglas is an important pickup for a few different reasons. It stabilizes the room this
year, but his nine million and non guaranteed salary and bonuses next year can easily be
restructured if need be and and keep a really good above average cover corner on the roster is
you have to make a really tough decision about Trey whites future with this team coming off of
back to back seasons with just devastating injury. So and I am sure I shared it on a previous pod
the return rate for Achilles injuries to top tier corners, like something like less than 20%
of them ever returned to starting caliber, starting caliber, most of them end up second or third
stringer if they continue the career at all. So and we knew this was coming down the pipeline,
we've said this is this was going to be the last ride for a lot of these core bills, defensive
pieces that have been with the team since McDermott came on board. Trey white was not necessarily
one that we had on the horizon because we assumed he would have a healthy season. But now that he
hasn't you could be looking at an off season where Poyer because you can get out of the second
year if his deal pretty easily hide who is a free agent at the end of this year. And Trey white
who represents a significant amount of cap savings, all three of those guys could potentially be
off the roster. So it was imperative that being especially with the inconsistency of Kyre Elam's
play, being went out and did something to secure the outside corner position. And I think, I think
Douglas was a great fit. And for all those people arguing that his production is recent, Jalen Johnson
hasn't started playing well until this season. So stop, he's in a contract year. Is he someone
that is good, good, could be good down the road to sure. But Douglas has a way longer track record
of consistent above average production than Jalen Johnson does. He's still a top 10 cover corner
by PFF rankings. His completion percentage when he is the closest DB targeted is under 60%. And as
we have said, he immediately comes into this, this locker room and has the best ball production skills
out of any other DB on the squad, which is something we're going to need in key moments
where teams are sustaining these drives against this very beat up defense. So Douglas, I think is a
really great pick pick up. And I think the bill is also bolstered some other weaknesses in the
free agency market as well here. We know that the one tech with the Juan Jones being out for an
unknown amount of time has been an issue at Oliver still having a monster season by a lot of statistical
measures, but has seen an increased rate of double teams with Jones being out because let's be honest,
no one's scared to Tim Settle and Punefort at this point. So bringing in Linval Joseph, who is a
as big and thick of a one tech as you're going to find at this stage in the season,
I think was a much needed and very, very positive move for this defensive roster as well. So JJ,
why don't you break down a little bit about Linval Joseph and tell us what you're seeing about him?
Yeah, so Linval Joseph drafted by the Giants in 2010. You know, older, older player has been around
for a little bit. He ended up playing eight games for the Eagles last season. You know, after being
kind of a street free agent. Really, you know, for Linval Joseph, the story is as we see it so many
times, probably not a Hall of Famer, but definitely a solid player through the middle of his career.
From 2015 to 2019, he was elite, probably top three, top four interior DT in the league,
run stuffing, had a little bit of juice as a pass rusher, but not very much. That's not his game.
His game is two gapping at a nose position. He did that. He made that hay with the Vikings.
Many offensive linemen, including beloved buff former Buffalo Bill Eric Wood have referred
to Linval Joseph as the strongest human being they've ever played against. So he's got just sort
of a pretty natural strength to his game and anchor. But what we saw from kind of 2020, 2021
with the Chargers before he ended up off the rosters was that he had solid but unspectacular
play and would get doubled and moved out of a gap pretty often. I think that the reason you're
bringing Linval Joseph in even in his late and not as dominant phase the end of his career as he is,
the reason you bring him in is kind of what you said is that by body alone, he's more natural.
He's a more natural fit to the Dequan Jones role and will hopefully soften up the double teams that
they're able to constantly throw it at Oliver. Because right now what we have is that Linval
Joseph is still going to be probably a more challenging one on one matchup for a center or
guard than Jordan Phillips or Tim Settle or Poonaford. I think all three of those players are nice
players, but I don't think that they kind of intimidate as much as Linval Joseph does,
even though he has not been good for a couple of seasons and then had sort of a resurgence with the
Eagles last year. And so, you know, hopefully that resurgence equals a hungry player who wants to make
some, you know, make some additional hey, maybe even get a one year deal after this, you know,
we'll see. So he's here at a vet minimum, not really a what's nice is it's not really an investment
of any kind, you're not going to lose much. If you, you know, if this if this doesn't pan out,
the bills are in no worse condition, salary cap wise. So a decent pickup, I'm excited to see kind
of what he can offer. Hopefully he shows some of the some of the juice that he had with the Eagles
after having kind of worked his way off of rosters, you know, an additional fire to kind of get back
in league for another run.
I think it's a I think Joseph gives this team a low risk, potentially high reward type of option,
and he played his best ball last year, because he had elite producers around him. And you can say
a lot about this bill's defensive defensive situation with the injuries that they've seen,
but you still have on Miller, you still have Leonard, you still have AJ up and as a having a career
year, you still have at Oliver playing at playing at a very elite level this season. He is top five
and both pass rush win rate and run stop win rate at this point in the season for all the at Oliver
haters out there. So you've got guys producing at elite levels around Joseph. And I think where he
is at this stage in this age of his career, he needs a team situation like that to really think
like that to really thrive. So I think he could be a surprisingly productive addition for the
Spills team. But at the very least, it's one that you've got to respect and hopefully that or other
teams have to respect. And hopefully, as you said, this freeze up at Oliver to get a few more one
on one matchups because his double team rate since Jonas has gone out has increased by about 7%.
So teams are really keying in on trying to stop Ed as games progress. And then JJ, our final
addition to the team playoff Lenny Leonard Fornette, who much much ado was made a few weeks ago about
his visit to Buffalo that was canceled. I don't even don't even know now if that was true, if
Twitter was lying to us. But a playoff Lenny shows up in very, very tight shorts for his leg day
workout with the team as he joins as he joins the Buffalo Bills, and really just bolsters with
Damian Harris still out bolsters the running back room. The bills have always prioritized three
running backs on this roster. They've prioritized a diversity of skill set at the running back position.
And Leonard Fornette, even at this stage of his career, brings to the table something that the
bills really cut it, which is a physical downhill runner with past protection capabilities that
will again, not take over snaps for James Cook, but will help to bolster that the the role that
Damian Harris was playing a little bit in goal line situations and third and short situations
as well. So another tool for Ken Dorsey to play with, and hopefully another personal pass protector
for Josh Allen to keep in the backfield. Well, and I think the other piece of that too is that
Leonard Fornette offers the part of his game that he offers is when we talked before about
when they bring with Tavius Murray in in downs where it's likely the bills will run the ball,
and teams are just loading up the box. You actually might be able to do some screens with Leonard
Fornette in those situations, because he's a little bit better and more dynamic of a pass
catcher. And so you might be able to kind of get behind that initial run stuff rush or run blitz
and make some things happen. And that could be an added wrinkle because he's I think as good,
if not better than Latavius Murray in path protection. There's countless clips, if you
want to go to YouTube and check them out of Leonard Fornette blowing up blitzers. And so I
think that that's something he has an interest in and he has a passion for protecting his QB. So
like to see that, I know over his time in the league, he's been there's been questions about his
effort, his willingness to take plays off stuff like that. And I think that that's part of the
reason that he went from being a fourth overall pick in the draft to multiple teams, you know,
over his career. And now on the out on the street is still not an incredible, you know,
he's not an old player at this point. He's I think he's sub 30 right? I think he's 29 going to be
30 by the end of the season just under 30. And so and we know with Latavius Murray being the oldest
active running back in the NFL at 33, that you know, he's end of career ish, but many running
backs with his draft pedigree are staying staying on rosters through their age 30 season. And he
could not. So, you know, there's there's some warts on that frog. But but I think also he
offers some wrinkles, he was out there, nobody else wanted him, you know, it's worth worth a flyer.
Again, low investment, he's on the practice one only, which is, you know, I don't even think
that counts against your cap, because it's not your top 53. It's not the top 51. Yeah, 51. Yeah.
So, so I'm good about it. I just thought of this thought of this Lin Voljosa staff, I think I
told you before the before the pod to go flip back to Lin Voljosa is the in a different chat with a
bunch of my Bill's fan friends, somebody was like, oh, he's like six, five, he'll be batting down passes
in the middle of the line. I was like, I wonder I wonder what Lin Voljosa's past deflection, you
know, kind of creation has been over the course of his career, found a fun stat, which is in 179
career games Lin Voljosa has only batted six passes. So yeah, not a component of his game.
For comparison, AJ Eponaes, I think is excellent at it. 11 deflections in the last 23 games. So
yeah, yeah, it's just it's not Joseph's game. Yeah, anyway, so but yeah, I like the additions.
I think that they're you know, with the exception of Russell Douglas, they're likely low impact.
You're not betting on high impact with either Lin Voljosa or Leonard Fournette, but if you
whatever you get is going to be gravy, because I think Russell Douglas is the only one where you
like you need you need him to have an impact on this defense. Right away to yeah, because we have
a we have a game against the Cincinnati Bengals coming out. Get into it. And and I hope Brazil
Douglas will play because if there is ever a shot we needed someone with his ball production skills,
it's probably going to be this game. So JJ, it's tough to break down the the standing numbers
between these two teams because we have seen the bills as a result of injury decline in certain
facets on defense. And with the slow start that the Bengals got off to, we have seen them kind of
ascend. So where both of these teams still sit in total DVOA and EPA per play, the the bills are
still top top three units in rushing and passing offense. And the Bengals are middle of the pack.
But we know when we have seen especially this past weekend that dominating performance the
Bengals had against the 49ers, we know that this Bengals team is one that seems like it's getting
it right. Well, this bills team is still one that is kind of figuring it out. So it's tough to look
at these numbers. But since Milano's injury, which also happened to coincide with this Bengals
ascendance, the Buffalo bills defense is 27th in overall DVOA right now and pass coverage.
While this Bengals defense, which had a lot of new pieces, which I don't think people,
I don't think people gave enough grace for, because even with it as talented a defense as they had,
they lost guys like Von Bell and Jesse Bates and Free Agency this year, who are key cogs to that
defense that they were running. But it looks like a lot of these new pieces and a lot of these young
pieces they are integrating are starting to coalesce and come together around this multiple scheme
that they run out of Cincinnati. So since the Milano injury, this Cincinnati Bengals unit
is top 11 in overall defensive DVOA. It's going to be an interesting matchup for a lot of different
reasons. But JJ, as we have said, like this is the game that the bills have been building themselves
to. This is the game that everything they have done in the off season has been a reaction to.
And now we get to see if there is going to be a payoff to how the bills have handled all of
their roster management, all of the adjustments they have made for this franchise. Sunday night is
going to be whether or not we see credit given where credit is due to what the bills have done or
if we find out maybe that in a loss, the bills are further behind the pack than we thought. And
maybe this window for a Super Bowl run is shrinking a little bit. You never want to overhype what one
game means. But I mean, listen, it's hard not to because the bills have literally aimed their entire
off season at correcting what happened in that playoff game against insy last year. And now they
get to take another crack at it. So JJ, where do you want to start offense or defense here? Let's
start with the bills offense versus the Bengals defense. I think that that's maybe the bigger
storyline for me, because very briefly, the bills defense versus the Bengals offense is the same
same thing that we saw in the playoff game, right? Like it's trying to limit the Bengals from being
able to get get the rush game going, which is they killed us within the playoffs. And on timely
third downs, and, you know, red zone areas and stuff like that shutting down cool Joe, Joe Burrow,
who is back like I think that's the biggest thing that's the biggest story there. But yeah,
I would like to we'll get into that more deeply. But it's what we know, it's what we expect there.
They have a high flying offense, Joe is back, he's 28 to 32 for three touchdowns had 40 yards rushing
his cat has healed for all intents and purposes. So that's what we know about. What I think is
interesting is the Bengals defense this season, like you said, has increased and improved over
the course of the last few games. And part of that is Lee and Arumo, their DC being willing to
change their entire defensive philosophy week to week, you know, in sort of a bellachicke in way
of attacking the team's, you know, greatest strengths against the 49ers who sort of look
like a team lost the past number of weeks. And Arumo went with a 515 five down line men,
a one linebacker and five and DB's and coverage to erase the run pass option that
the 49ers and Brock Purdy have have used to such great effect. You know, other than one early
touchdown, they held Christian McCaffrey and check the rest of the day. Well, they didn't
necessarily hold them in check. I think the story of that game was that there was a bunch of
timely turnovers, but they were able to generate those turnovers. And that's something the Bengals
defense is excellent at. And that's something that the bill's offense is very poor, is giving
turnovers specifically on the road. They have a three to one turnover to take away differential
on the road this season. And so they give will give the ball away way more than they take it away
on the road. And hopefully we can change that trend because they're going to need some turnover
luck if they want to have a hope, like this team, because the Bengals look like they're back back
to the playoff caliber Bengals. And so the bills offense against that defense, the things they
need to do is they need to not be baited into running the play selection that aneromo wants
them to run by giving them a defensive look, they need to stick to whatever concepts they want to
run and just run them. Because basically he's going to bring six guys up on the line and make you
check to a pass, and then he's going to drop all but two of them out into coverage cluttering the
underneath lanes and making a pass impossible or getting a turnover. And so I think Josh is going
to have to use his legs again this this time, because if they're doing that, that was the
thing that was so effective against the 49ers that is, you know, plugging and simulating
pressure, like an all out blitz look and then dropping everybody into coverage and having a
very light blitz, or a light pressure. If they do that, Josh Allen can use that to his advantage,
grab four or five yards and run out of bounds, do that every single time they drop into coverage
if there's no passing lanes available. Every time just run to the closest, you know, sideline to you,
get three or four yards, just keep doing that until until they won't, you know, they won't be able
to do it do that look anymore, because that's what that's what was so effective you have to
dictate to aneromo what you want to do with your offense, or try to run against some of those heavy
looks and use inside gap power. Deion Dawkins is I think the most lethal pulling tackle in the
entire league. He blocks better on the move than any tackle I've ever seen for the Buffalo Bills.
Absolutely. And there's the added benefit to and and I mean, the Cincinnati Bengals defense is not
unbeatable. We have seen them struggle at times this year. But their second half and fourth quarter
production in particular, JJ drops off substantially from their first half production, it has nothing
to do with in game adjustments, because the Bengals are amazing at making those in game
adjustments, they might start out the first half in a four three realize it's not working come out
in a three four in the second half and change everything on the fly because how well coached
they are. But as we said, this is a defense that purse snap share subs out, particularly on that
defensive line at the lowest rate and all of football. So this isn't the jets where they're
running out eight guys on that defensive line and constant rotations. And this isn't even the
this isn't even the bills who try to apply the same philosophy, they're going to play with basically
the same four guys on that defensive line. So if you can beat them up a little bit in the first
half on the run, this is a defense that statistically does wear out as the game goes on, they rely on
that ball production that turnover production in the secondary to kind of make up for that. But to
your point, if the bills can successfully run against some of those heavier looks where you feel
like the Bengals are actually just decoying and are going to drop back, or if Allen can use his
legs responsibly, you're going to wear that defensive line down, that's going to open some
some things up in the second half of the game, which is going to be absolutely key for these
bills if they're going to win. If they're able to get I think they're able to get concaid going,
I know we mentioned earlier that they're going to the Bengals are probably going to key on concaid,
and onto some of the other secondary pass catchers for the bills after what they showed against
the Buccaneers. But George Kittle, I know he's one of the most elite in the league,
went nine for 149 with a 16, you know, 16 yard per reception average against the Bengals. So
there's some soft spots in that zone, even when they're cluttering those those short passing
lanes, George Kittle did some nice things. And so I think that if you can get concaid going,
that's going to be useful. And honestly, you know, I think the story of that game is that
everyone's like, Oh, my gosh, they brought down the the high flying 49ers, the 49ers have again,
lost three in a row, this is a third of loss in a row. They did not look great, you know,
lost 31 17 to the Bengals at home, which I think is another component of this, like the
bills have looked so much better at home than on the road, which is you expect that from teams,
but I think it's even farther outside the normal variants you see, they've looked bad on the road,
they've looked excellent at home. So or much more competitive at home. So,
you know, I think that the story of the game, though, is on timely turnovers,
Rock, pretty through two interceptions in the red zone during that game. And that was a seven
point swing at least, right? Like, at times where they are three points, we're at least likely a
seven point swing, given how good San Francisco is in the red zone. But the same physical boarding
there still had 460 yards, 347 passing yards, you know, 8.2 yards per play. So the Bengals were
very much giving up yardage, but they were just very opportunistic when they needed to be they
were taking the ball away. Yep, absolutely. And I think that has a lot to do with Perti's
Perti's development where he is at, we have anointed him as like the next Tom Brady, because
he had a really good run of 12 games. But now teams have a full season of tape on Perti,
and they're starting to adjust a lot of their schematics for what he is so comfortable doing.
And like every other young QB, like Josh, his face, this and his development, Jalen Hertz is
going through it right now with how teams are scheming for his skill set. If you're a young,
successful QB teams are going to find a way to take away the stuff you're most comfortable in doing.
And that was the difference in that 49ers game, because the Bengals were able to do it at the
moments where it mattered most. And they were able to do it at a consistent rate last year
against the bills in that playoff game too. So it'll be interesting to see because Josh's
tendencies are very well known. It'll be interesting to see offensively how they come out and scheme.
I actually like the idea of running tempo against this Bengals defense. It gives them less time to
set up and some of their exotic decoy looks, some of their simulated pressures, but it also gives
more control at the point of attack for Josh. Now, it is harder to run that type of offense on the
road, because you're going to go probably to a lot of silent play calls that Bengals, that Bengals
fan base is going to be absolutely jacked up prime time game who day nation. Yeah, I know, right?
Yep. Absolutely jacked up, but you can still run a lot of those concepts that were so successful
against the Buccaneers to help put some things in your in your favor against this defense. Again,
this is not a perfect defense, but it is a defense that takes advantage of a lot of the tendencies
that QBs like Mahomes and like Allen seem to represent or seem to like to delve into. Like,
there's a reason why Mahomes struggles against the Bengals. There's a reason why Lamar Jackson
struggles against the Bengals and Josh Allen. These are guys with similar levels of creativity
that like to improvise. And the Bengals are just so good with the personnel that they have and the
speed that they have, and baiting you into indulging in those tendencies to create a fact for them.
So it this is going to have to be a disciplined game from Josh, not just from a from a don't chuck
it down the field into double coverage standpoint, but he is going to have to consistently spread the
ball around and spread the Spingles defense very, very thin. We've said it ad nauseam that when Josh
is playing point guard and getting the ball out in under 2.5 seconds, this bill's offense is absolutely
at its best. And I would add one more thing. I think there's got to be real volume to the way
he's spreading the ball around like a dink and dunk here to Regigillium or a one off 10 yard
reception to Kahlil Shakir is not going to be enough to get these opposing defenses out of
their tendencies. Like the Buccaneers game, there's got to be a consistent commitment to getting
multiple targets to gave Davis multiple targets to Kahlil Shakir multiple targets to Dalton Kincaid
so that you can eventually free up digs to perform in clutch time. If you're funneling a lot of
targets them in the first half, quite frankly, that's what teams want you to do at this stage
when you're playing the Buffalo Bills. What I do think that the the Bengals did a decent job of
replacing both of their starting safeties from last season. But that's a change. That's a vulnerability,
I think, because those safeties are playing together for the first time. And, you know,
beating them over the top hasn't been a thing that teams have been able to do. I think that the
Bills can do that if they're able to soften up that over the top coverage by punishing them
enough underneath. Well, and that's where that's where Dalton Kincaid becomes such an important
piece of this offense because real I mean, listen, Logan Wilson and Jermaine Pratt, the the two line
backers of the Bengals play with the Bengals basically play nickel. It's like a mirror mirror
image of the Bills defense. But those two guys you could argue are the best from a production
standpoint linebacker duo in the league when it comes to pass coverage. But neither of them have
the athletic skill or speed to stick with Dalton Kincaid. That means yeah, that means you're
probably pulling down Dax Hill to go one on one with Kincaid, which could open some very nice
things up off over the top. But if you are not establishing Kincaid as that threat early on,
and you're just trying to pound it over the top, you're playing right into the Spangles
defensive hands, you want to establish some of these other producers and Kahlil Shakir, to me,
is clearly wide receiver three on this team. He has caught all 11 of his targets over the past
two games. And dude, his routes and releases, they are always on time. They are always and under
that 2.3 second mark where you needed to be. And he is always creating a throwing window for Alan
to get him the ball. He is so polished at this stage. He adds a lot of value in the run blocking
game as well. But more and more, he is becoming other than digs, potentially the best route runner
when it comes to timing and release on this bill squad. And that's something you absolutely have
to exploit because he's probably going to see a lot of Mike Hilton. Mike Hilton is a physical
defensive back, but he's not a fast defensive back. And he's a little bit undersized as well.
So Shakir, if he can establish himself, if Kincaid can establish himself, you've got no choice but
to pull in some of those safeties for a little bit of help. It's a lot like what happened when
Cole Beasley was such a threat for this team early on. The reason digs could eat so much is because
Beasley was also demanding double coverage to some extent on those third and fives that he
specialized on. The bills haven't developed that guy to replace Beasley yet. But if Shakir and Kincaid
can actually warrant some attention, you're going to see things open up over the top for digs and
Davis in a really big way. Yeah, I think so too. And I'm very worried about the Buffalo Bills ability
to protect Josh Allen in this game. I think that what you see from this, the Bengals front is that
they are not massive, you know, they're not massive producers on the past rush win rate scale,
but they do have individual, you know, elite players like DJ Reader, BJ Hill inside are both
excellent animals. They're nasty. And that's where I think the bills have really suffered some
losses. And the games that the bills have looked the worst, it's when their guards and Mitch Moore
are getting absolutely worked inside, because then Josh Allen cannot step up in the pocket,
which means his tackles cannot ride their defense events to the to the wide side.
That's how they protect the best. And so I'm not as worried about, you know, Sam Hubbard versus
Dion Dawkins, I think Dion Dawkins can handle that one on one match up pretty easily. I'm extremely
worried about Trey Hendrickson against Spencer Brown, because Trey Hendrickson has eight sacks
this season. He's having a career year for a guy who we thought could only do cover sacks
coming out of New Orleans. I know that's one of my coldest takes ever. It's aged like spoiled milk.
I said the Patriots were going to have the second best offense in the division this year.
You're not alone in the preseason predictions. I'm like, wow, he was so wrong about the Patriots,
they're absolutely trash. And it's week nine. That's the only thing we know for certainty is
that that team is bad. Yeah. And you still beat the bills. So, you know, right, seriously, I don't
know how. So yeah, DJ Reader BJ Hill great inside Trey Hendrickson, I think has proven me wrong. He's
excellent. And but he has eight sacks, the rest of the team has like the team as a whole has 12.
So there's only four amongst all other, you know, pass rushers, which I think, you know,
indicates that maybe DJ Reader BJ Hill are not having as dominant seasons as they usually have.
Both of them are a little bit long in the tooth. And so we'll see, we'll see what that
pressure looks like if the bills cannot handle the pass rush, it's going to be a long miserable night
for Bill Mafia. It really is. This is where the bills need to dictate pace of play. Because again,
you can you can wear down this defense teams have done it successfully. And as imposing as that front
four is, it is a it is a unit that other than the Hendrickson can be got later on in games. And listen,
I know the Bengals are the Bengals are here's a stat. They're the only team to beat the Buffalo
bills by more than six points since 2020. Since 2020. Yeah. So over the past two and a half seasons,
almost all of the bills losses have been by six points or less. And we know this because we
agonizingly sit through a lot of those, a lot of those games as bills fans. The Bengals are the
only team to effectively dominate and blow them out over the past two and a half seasons.
But traditionally, the bills keep it close. And if they're going to keep it close, wearing down
this defense is going to be a really, really big key for them. Well, this is the first time in 27
games that the Buffalo bills are the Vegas underdog, which I think is fair. The spread on this game
is one and a half points. I think that's fair. And home gets three. So yeah. Yep. Yeah, it's more
like two and a half these days, because home field advantage has been has been deluded to some extent.
But you're basically saying that on a neutral field, this is going to this would be a pick them game.
And I don't think that's wrong, even though the Bengals feel ascendant and the bills feel like
they're still figuring stuff out. But the bills also play up to their competition. And this is
easily the best team that they have faced in a few weeks. So it'll be interesting to see what
kind of ferocity and what kind of a, especially with Hamlin's return to Cincinnati, what kind of
emotional state this team is going to be in. I think both teams are going to be elevated. But
I was just going to go there with the Hamlin thing. This is that they're back in the same field.
It's a night game. It was in that January game as about 45 degrees clear, calm. It's the exact
same weather, exact same lights, exact same time. So I think that this could go one of two. It's
sort of like my wife's take on Josh Allen. He's either going to light the league on fire and be
an MVP or he'll claim out in an epic dying star fashion. That's how I feel that this the intensity
and emotional content of the game for the bills will go. It's either going to be they come out
absolutely lit up and ready to go because they have extra energy from the fact that they want
to prove something to a team that knocked them out to a team that they had the greatest sadness
of their season on that field at that time. They want to turn the negative into a positive.
I think that that's one way or they're going to come out completely flat because none of them have
prepared with the emotional energy for how much it's going to affect them to be in the same situation
as probably the scariest thing that's ever happened in their football life.
So correct. Yeah. And it's hard to quantify what kind of impact that is going to have. But we have
seen this Buffalo Bills team feed on emotion, but also also be swallowed by emotion as well.
Right. And I think they had a lot to do with their fault off last year. So
it's going to be interesting. Did you want to talk briefly Bills defense versus the
the Bengals offense? I agree. This is the least interesting matchup. I know they don't
ever take the field at the same time, but this game really is burrow versus Allen. This is about
what these offenses are going to do because I think both of these defenses will be limited
in what they can do to actually stop the opposing team. Well, I think the only notes I have on
you know, Bills defense versus this offense is, you know, the Bengals, the Bengals offensive line
revamped last year, slightly adjusted this year has it has decent talent. And but I don't think that
the the Bengals offensive line is not the Cowboys offensive line. It's not an offensive line that's
that's capable of completely taking over a game. And we know that from Joe Burrow's sack numbers
for the past few seasons, right? Like very average, it's very middle of the very average,
very middle of the pack. But the Bills defensive line has shown sometimes that it plays down,
right? Like, and so if the Bills defensive line can bring juice, if we see von Miller,
who's even a shadow of the von Miller, we know we should see, I'm expecting him to start on it
actually looked he did some more speed to power stuff, some more bend in the edge stuff last
week against the the Bucks. So I like to see that week to week improvement. And I think he is
planning week to week improvement at this point. So it's going to take him some time to get back
to dominant fashion, of course, late in his career, big time knee injury, so we'll see. But I think
that if the Bills defensive line can really get some pressure, that's going to change the
that's going to change the complexity of this game. Same as the same as the Bengals, right?
Like whichever team wins the physical battle upfront is going to win this game, which is
almost always the case. And the most important thing for the Bills defense versus offense is to
shut down Joe Nixon. Because if he gets going, then there's nothing that can stop them. They have
too much talent and play action. Joe Burrow is back under center after being injured. You know,
for the first three or four weeks, he's like back to his normal kind of capacity, which means
play action is on the table, which means, you know, if one of those young linebackers or
Tarell Dodson's in the in the game, short crossers to Jamar Chase, Tia against Tyler Boy,
Slantz are going to just completely murder this team. The Bills defense has to tackle,
they have to be, you know, they've been for every year since Sean McDermott has been been the coach
to the Bills. D has one of the biggest miss tackle rates, except for this season, the season,
they're like much, much better at that. And so hopefully that continues because that's going
to be critical. These they can really, this offense can wreck you. So the Bills defense has
got to bring it on with you. I know Russell Douglas might not have, you know, all the calls and
everything in lockdown just yet. He's spent a number of days. But I think that whatever you
can get out of him, you get out of him, you get him on the field, you get him on the field, even
if it's on a rotating basis with your other corners and say, all right, on this, on this,
you just need to get on Jamar Chase, you know, jam him at the line and stay with him.
Yeah, absolutely. Absolutely. And maybe turn it over.
Exactly. Maybe pick six.
You know, yep. Yeah, maybe just some heroic effort. Yeah. Yeah, absolutely. No, because I mean,
listen, we know what Dane Jackson is. Dane Jackson has been smoked by this team before. So
Douglas may be an unknown, maybe an unknown for what he can do in the scheme right now. But you
know, the tools he's bringing to the table and what he can and what he could potentially bring
in a game changing and closing capacity. So I want to at least see Douglas out there in key moments,
closing out drives in the second half of the game, you know what I mean? So let him get a sea
legs under him in the first half, and then put him in with that closing NASCAR package that you
like to run out there when you're trying to hopefully bring home a win. So speaking of bringing
home a win, JJ, you want to talk about prediction, sure to go wrong and close this thing out?
All right. So let's talk about score. So I'm going to preface this by saying that I have listened
very intently to the cover one guys, to the shout guys, to circle the wagons. It feels like even
a lot of local bills media are picking the bangles to win this game. And for all the bangles nonsense
about no one believes in us, 75% of the public money and 65% of the Vegas money is going on the
bangles. So the bangles from whatever metric you want, clearly the betting favorite in this game,
clearly by a lot. So are we gonna are we gonna kowtow to group pressure JJ? Or are we going to
dare to be different and pick our beloved bills to win? Let's start with you. Oh, God, I, I,
I don't remember the pods history. Other than you've picked the bills to lose once. I have.
You have I've never picked the bills to lose. You've picked to lose them once. And it was
the chiefs. It was the chiefs 2021 regular season game after the law are lost on the
AFC championship game the previous year. And then the bills ended up winning by two scores in that
game. They they was a very impressive win. They wanted that game. So I'm going to say bills lose.
I'll because like here's the thing. I'm very worried about what I mentioned before the emotional
energy and the emotional capacity of this team in that setting. I know a lot of them have said
that this is going to give them juice. They're so happy tomorrow is okay. Like, you know, and then
he's still in the is still in the league. He's still on his career. He's on the team. But I think
that, you know, it's one of those things that they might not know how it's going to affect them
until it affects them in the moment. So I could see the bills coming out a little flat or having
some different points in the game where they make some mental errors. But I like like you said,
the bills play up to their competition. So I see the bills in a tight one losing 28 to 31.
Big time scoring. Yeah, I agree. And it's so hard to take overs on the on the on the over
under total points this season, because the under has been absolutely ruling with the way defenses
are playing some of these modern NFL offenses. But I agree with you, this feels like an over game as
well. I have never picked against the bills to lose. I've never picked against the bills on this
pod. In any iteration of the pod, I have never done it. This feels like a really bad time to
catch this team, though, because the bills are still figuring it out on offense. Dorsey is a
second year play caller is still trying to find the best version of this team somewhere. And the
injuries and defense are very real. And we it's a lot to expect that some of these new pieces are
going to come in and have an immediate effect. So I am for the first time in the pods history,
I'm also going to pick against the bills in this game. It just it feels like there's too many odds
stacked against this team at this phase of the season. Now, do I think if we see the bangles
again, potentially in the postseason, it's going to be different, even if it's in Cincinnati,
absolutely. But for where these teams are right now in the arc of their season,
the bangles feel like the Ascendant team. And I agree, I think it's going to be a close game.
I've got this game 27 24 bangles. And I've got the bangles having a pretty dominant first half
and the bills turning it out in the second half to make it a game. So I don't think it's a blow.
I think the bills play well. I just think it comes down to whoever's going to have the ball
last. And that feels like it's going to be the bangles in this game.
All right, do you have any props? I do. I want to I want to go with Dalton Kincaid,
because I feel like if the bills are going to win, he's got to factor in in a big way to take
some to take some attention away from digs and some of these other past catchers. And I mean,
listen, the Cincinnati bangles, they have a really hard time defending opposing teams, tight ends.
So I'm going to say Kincaid over under five and a half total receptions. And I'm going to parlay
that with Dalton Kincaid over under 75.5 total reception yards. So basically six catches and
76 yards, if you want to take the over. I will take the over because I think that the bangles
do struggle covering tight ends. So we'll both take the over on that. I've got just like a flat
James Cook has a score over 20 yards overnight or has a touchdown that is 19.5 yards or a long.
Oh, interesting. So you've got him with with an explosive play coming down the pipeline.
God, that would be great. That would be great. I I'm going to take the under though, because I
and this is going to be a McDermott thing. They're going to be worried about protecting Josh. And I
think you're going to see a lot of Latavius Merley Murray early on in the game, particularly on passing
downs as a personal protector. And I think that's going to eat into a lot of cook snaps. So I don't
think there's going to be a whole ton of opportunity for him to actually break one because if he's
going to break one, I feel like it's probably going to be in the past game. And I I just think the
bills are going to hedge too much and they're going to put Murray out there way too much. So I'm
going to go under. Okay, that's fair. Do you have a defensive or other prop? Yeah, I'm going to go.
I'm going to go Von Miller over under half a sack. I feel like if that he has been building
towards this game, I think the bills brought him back off IR at the time they did specifically to
be ready for this game, because he was not in last year's playoff game. And I think that that is
resonated with Miller Miller knows that everything he's been doing this season has been building up
to this Miller over under half a sack. I'm gonna say he gets one. I do too. Yeah, no, I agree with
that. And that's kind of what I was getting to before is that I've seen gradual steady improvement,
which is the mantra of this pod. And I've seen that week to week with Von Miller,
he looked completely crap. His first week back when he was in LA for what six or London for six
snaps. Yeah, it was like right he was running in mud. Yeah, it was it looked slow. It looked
like week. The next week it was 20 snaps, he looked a little bit tighter next week. And this past
week was the third time he's he played and it looked quite a bit better. So yeah, hopefully he's
up to his normal snap share soon. And has that explosiveness that he started to you started
to get glimmers of. Yeah, I've got a prop and that is Rassoul Douglas, five interceptions.
Man, that would be the dream when it is the dream and it's the kind of thing that like would be a
statement to the bills mafia to the to the rest of his teammates if he gets in and gets one,
it's it's I'm here. This is why you brought me. And that that could be an emotional switch that
has flipped in favor of the bills. Listen, if all these things hit the over, like it is shaping up
for a bills when these are the things that need to happen in order for them to formulate a victory
against the Cincinnati Bengals. I'm going to go I am going to go under though, because Borough is
so good at distributing the ball to all of his past catchers. And he's such a he's such a he's
such an oxymoron because he is a dude that will throw picks. He throws a ton of 50 50 balls.
But his interception rate is always just so low. I don't get it. I get it. He throws a lot of
pickleball balls. It's because he's got Tyler Boyd, T Higgins and Jamar Chase. And all these
guys win those 50. Yeah, they although win the 50 50 balls. So he you know, if you look at his
interceptable pass rate, it's high. But his interceptions are low, because those guys make
things happen, or they play deep defensive back. And it's just an completion of which he doesn't
have many because he knows where to send it. That's the thing that worries me the most about this
is like the bills don't often see teams that have two starting caliber wide receiver ones.
Right. And like this team, you know, when when they have seen those teams, I think that I think
of maybe the dolphins, they have to scheme away to stop them. And that's fine. The thing with
the dolphins is once you've stopped, you know, waddle and Terry Hill, you're you're done right
like as soon as you get no other yeah, as soon as you get to off of his first read, you've basically
won the down. With this Joe Burrow is not that he can do some second reaction stuff. He has more
targets he can get the ball to. I think that the extra wrinkles are, you know, having Joe
mixing out of the backfield, and then having Tyler Boyd, like he has some options he can get the
ball to that. It's not it's not over if you get him off his first or second read. And the bills
don't have enough coverage talent to shut down three three wide receivers. They just I agree.
I agree. Though I do think this team is more defensible than they were in the postseason game
because they don't have Hayden Hurst anymore. Like Hayden Hurst, if you remember, absolutely ate
up the defense of the bills and Erv Smith has not been that for the bank. Let's just put it that way.
Yeah. So he does have one less target area that he can go to. But still, it's a very potent attack.
It's hard to shut down all those all those letters. Yeah, without a doubt. All right, JJ. So we both
have the bills take taken an L drop into five and four after this game and I don't want it.
I don't want any other and then regrouping from Monday night game against the Broncos next
week. So all right, JJ, as always, it's it's good to have you back on the pod. Welcome back.
And thanks to our co-hosts or our guest co-hosts. Justin and Brandon. Great job filling in.
Yeoman's work. Yep, absolutely. They're doing it in a pinch too. We appreciate you guys. Thank you.
So for all of you listening at home, like, share and subscribe wherever you get to podcast,
Google, Apple, Spotify and Zoey's go bills. Go bills.