And welcome to Buffalo Bread with Dan and not JJ.
JJ is still on injured reserve for us folks.
This week is years recovering from a shoulder injury.
We had the pleasure of one Brandon Bennett
on our post-game recap of the stunning loss and upset
of the New England Patriots in the Buffalo Bills here
in week seven.
And we are now fortunate enough to be joined by another
stand-in host being promoted from the practice squad
to the 53 man roster to help us preview the Tampa Bay
Buccaneers and Buffalo Bills coming up here Thursday night
in prime time on Amazon Prime.
Our guest host this week is Buffalo Bills fan
Justin Dickerson, friend of the pod and friend of the team,
Buffalo Bills fan since college I want to say.
Justin, why don't you introduce yourself to our
seven to 12 weekly listeners and tell us a little bit
about how you came to love our beloved Buffalo Bills.
Well, thank you Dan.
Long time listener, first time caller.
Nice, nice.
I, so I grew up in the shadow of the New York Giants.
My dad was a Giants fan and so although now as a
Die Hard Bills fan I must say the New Jersey Giants.
And you know, my dad really raised me to be a Giants fan.
He's from the Binghamton area and his whole family
are big on Giants.
I rode the Giants high of when I was in high school.
I watched the Giants beat the Patriots and Superbowl.
It was a great time.
Then I went to college at SUNY Fredonia,
which is in Western New York and anybody who's been
to that college can tell you it's just, you know,
it's just dangerous to not be a Bills fan in Western New York.
It's just not, not advised, but a lot of my really close
friends grew up in the Buffalo area.
They were really Die Hard Bills fans for a long time.
And we really bonded.
I mean, this is 2011, 12, 13, 14 Buffalo Bills.
So we bonded over the collective disappointment
in that team and really just seeing what that looks like.
The ejected misery and hopelessness of that era.
Yeah, 2012 happened and the Giants had their season
and I'm just sitting as a Bills fan watching going,
oh, I made a decision.
But you know, it's just been watching the Bills come
to hear from there has just been a really cool experience.
And there's just something to be said about the collective
fandom of Bills fans and coming from all these like 20
and 30 year old Bills fans who were raised in kind of this
like era of misery and are now starting to see these teams
really come to light.
It's just a really great time to be a Bills fan.
I agree.
All things aside with with our recent spat of poor games
over the last three games to potentially substandard teams,
it is good to be a Bills fan.
And it is important every now and then Justin
to bring that fresh perspective.
That is much appreciated, sir,
because sometimes JJ and I can get into our own feelings
about this team in a lot of different ways.
And those feelings over the past three games have been
very, very negative.
So we're hoping that the Bills are gonna get back on track,
usually a solid team in response to a loss.
They have a quick turnaround,
which honestly could be a blessing and disguise for them
after the turd they laid against New England in New England.
This could be a great opportunity,
short week, flush it, get prepared,
and then welcome a very a solid but beatable opponent
in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to Orchard Park, New York.
So Justin, here's how we typically do things.
I'm the numbers guy, if you've ever listened to the pod.
So I will give us the rankings of where each of these
stand team stand by DVOA.
And then after that, you and I will simply get into three
things that we think will help the Buffalo Bills
win this particular game, okay?
We'll banter a little bit,
we'll do a segment called Prediction Sure to Go Wrong,
which is really what people come to the pod for
is finding out how wrong JJ and I are week to week.
And then we'll call it good, sound awesome?
Sounds great.
All right, so here we go,
setting up our Thursday night matchup
between our beloved Buffalo Bills
and the Baker May Feel lead Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
So as it currently sits,
despite some of the struggles the Bills have seen
in the last three weeks,
they're currently ranked fourth in overall DVOA.
Only Kansas City, San Francisco, and now Baltimore
are ahead of them in overall DVOA.
This Justin is surprising,
given I think the narrative of a lot of Bills Mafia,
which is the offense is a problem, which don't get me wrong,
the offense has been a problem over the last three games.
But really this decline in DVOA
where the Bills were the number one rated team
and number two rated team just a couple of weeks ago
is really coming as a result of the attrition and defense.
So the Buffalo Bills offensive DVOA ranking
is still third overall in the league,
but the defensive rank is 13th.
And for a team that prioritizes special teams,
we now currently sit 24th in overall special teams DVOA.
A lot of this having to do
with a lot of the ineffectiveness
over the last few games of Tyler Bass.
He has had in his past two games, three missed field goals.
We're earlier in the season,
like so many other aspects of this Buffalo Bills team,
this team was automatic.
The visiting squad at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
currently ranked 20th in overall DVOA.
From an offensive standpoint,
this is not a strong offensive team,
but it is a team I think that mirrors
and wants to do a lot of the things
that the New England Patriots did to us,
which is try to establish the run.
They've got a defensive minded head coach
and they still have some decent weapons
that they want to open things up
for Baker across the middle of the field.
And Baker, unlike Mac,
well, not great arm strength,
does they have the ability to test the boundaries
every now and then given the right shot.
They still got Mike Evans on the team,
but still this is an offense that has really struggled.
And this is a team that is coming off of a loss
to the Desmond Ritter let Atlanta Falcons.
But, and this is what worries me the most.
From a defensive standpoint, this squad is 12
and they've got some players on this team.
Guys like Devin White,
they can create a lot of havoc
similar to how the Giants used a lot of their linebacking core,
how the Patriots use their linebackers and safeties.
They've got some pieces, Justin, on this Tampa Bay defense
that could potentially execute the game plan
that these other three teams over the past three weeks
have executed so successfully
against the Buffalo Bills, which is takeaway,
Steph on digs is the primary option,
used delayed pressure and well-timed blitzes
to overwhelm the offensive line
and get Josh off platform and holding onto the ball.
So there's a couple of keys,
both offensively and defensively
that I wanna get into here, Justin,
to talk about where the Buffalo Bills
could potentially get back on track and secure W
and what is a much needed win
in a very competitive AFC East.
But I wanna start with you, you are a guest.
So I would like to start off with your keys to this game.
So why don't we go there?
So Justin, point number one,
what do you think the Buffalo Bills need to do
first and foremost to secure a victory
over the Buccaneers on Thursday?
Yeah, I think, I mean, first things first,
and I think this is simple,
but it has proven not to be as simple
as it should be for our Bills,
is they need to protect the football, right?
Like when they turn the ball over,
they lose plain and simple.
And when they protect the ball, they win.
I mean, I think that the way that they've been playing
and the way that they've been really asserting themselves
hasn't been the same Bills we've seen.
I think there's a lot of,
I'm looking at these games
and I'm looking at the way that certain players
are being used and I think there's a lot of caution.
I mean, with our injured list, it makes sense,
but you're seeing Vaan Miller going for six snaps
against New England.
You're seeing Josh Allen on plays
where last season Josh Allen would be diving
for the line of scrimmage as fast as he can,
making those safe, smart throws or throwaways.
Like just, I think the energy and the fire of the team
hasn't been where I've wanted to see it
in the last few games.
And I think a lot of that is there.
I think letting, I mean,
not to have the snappy line of the day,
but let James cook cook.
I mean, I think the reality is we need to establish the run.
I think a lot of people have figured out
what they expect from Josh Allen in the game
and they understand the Josh Allen
to Stefan Diggs pipeline pretty well.
I'm sure that in the off season,
this is a lot of what coaching staffs
and other teams have been focusing on is
how do we break up that connection between those two players?
And we've seen how effectively that has prevented the builds
from putting points on the board.
I think establishing the run
leaves defenses vulnerable to play action,
helps them keep the heat off of Josh Allen
and Stefan Diggs and gives us back the option
that isn't currently working out for us the way that it should.
I mean, obviously there's still making some things
happen here and there,
but if there's an expectation coming out of the field
that that's all you need to protect against,
that's what happens.
I love that.
I love that take.
And I don't know if you listened to the pot or not,
but JJ is somewhere recovering from his shoulder surgery,
loving what he is hearing at this point.
Cause when you, James Cook, I think people forget
he started his NFL career with a fumble
after never having fumbled at all in college.
And then he was benched for like the next six series
in the opening set of his rookie year.
But he's a reliable steward of the ball,
which people oftentimes forget.
So I love what you're saying about establishing the run,
not just to make play action a more effective threat,
which I'll get into my things about Josh
and his play action efficacy,
but is to take care of the football
and limit opportunities for turnovers
because James Cook vice grips for hands,
even at points of contact.
No, I love that.
I love that.
Keep going with your thought.
Yeah. And then I think my final thing is
we need to get Dalton Kedke going and get him going early.
I think the more passes you take underneath,
the more likely you already hit a few good ones off the top.
I think that the bill's offense is getting,
I don't want to say one dimensional,
but limited dimensional in what they're trying.
One of my very good friends who in the four hours
since you invited me to join the pod and I've been on the pod,
I went and did a run through of all my favorite Bill's fans
and said, what would you say if you were on the pod?
And one of them said that,
and there was obviously a lot of hate for Dorsey
because I think that's kind of the fan current trend
is fire Ken Dorsey.
That's the solution.
I think how he put it was Ken Dorsey is a Madden player
who's got three of his buttons stuck
and he's just trying the same ones over and over
in bad situations.
I think the reality is there's a lot of weapons
left on this team.
We can woe and woe is us that we've got a lot of injuries
and the fact is we do have a lot of injuries,
but our offense still has so many strong options
on the field and there's so many different places
to put them and so many things we should be doing
that I think should really be equaling greater output,
but I'm not seeing us try different things.
I'm seeing us run the same game plan every game
and then by the time we're starting to make changes,
we're talking end of third quarter, fourth quarter
and we're seeing these bills come trying to come back
from the dead at the end of games
and as we've seen too often,
sometimes that's just not enough time to bring the game back.
No, I'll agree with everything you are saying
and I wanna start in reverse order with your points.
So there is the multiplicity issue being multiple,
getting Kinkade involved,
but more importantly, stop being predictable
and I think that has been a problem
for the bills over the last three games.
The London game against Jacksonville,
Mike Haldwell, the defensive coordinator,
rolled out a really great game plan that we talked about,
JJ and I, which was bringing delayed pressure.
So teams don't typically like to blitz Josh
because he's so good off platform
and he's so good off script,
but teams are clearly seeing something
in the way that these Buffalo bills route trees
are developing and the time it takes for Josh
to go through his progressions when he is off script
this season, because he doesn't have a lot of rapport
with some of these new weapons,
they're taking advantage of that.
And prior to this season,
coaches would argue that you can never blitz Josh Allen
because it's a death sentence.
I think over the last three games,
teams have figured out a way to blitz him
because they're seeing predictability
and the offense that Dorsey is calling.
And what's more is, and to your point,
these, the Buffalo bills are not adjusting their game plan
early enough, in quarter and in the first half
to get into a rhythm.
And I think this is what McDermott was getting at
in his post game press conference
when it was being pressed by Joe Biscaliah
from the athletic about McDermott saying
he wanted to get into a better rhythm.
I think this is what he was trying to get at.
They need to adjust rather than stubbornly stick
to a game plan that other teams have clearly read into
and clearly know how to counter.
These delayed pressures that we're seeing game
after game after game have been an absolute brick wall
for the Buffalo bills and trying to score points
in the first half, 10 total points
over their last three games.
In the second half to Dorsey's credit,
he is making the adjustments that he needs to
to hit the easy button for Josh
and develop some really quick uncomplicated routes
that find soft spots in zone,
hence our boy Dalton Kincaid
that give Josh some really easy completions
to get the ball moving.
And this is a great juxtaposition, I think,
because when you get guys like Kincaid involved
who quickly find spots in zone,
they can be a hot route that helps mitigate
some of that pressure or keep some of those delayed blitzes
honest at least, because you're gonna have to make a choice
as the blitz are coming from the second level.
Do I let Kincaid flash out
or do I continue on my blitz of Josh?
Nine times out of 10, they're gonna continue
on their blitz rather than make the decision
to drop back into coverage.
Very rarely do these delayed blitz packages
allow for those types of adaptations.
So you roll a guy like Kincaid out there
and all of a sudden you've got a quick easy completion
for seven yards, chunk at a time, chunk at a time
that keeps the ball rolling.
Well, and you and I have talked, not to interrupt,
but you and I have talked in many occasions
about how Josh Allen doesn't seem satisfied
with that slow roll progress.
And it's so often doesn't work for us in that
there's so many games where if they could just simply
be satisfied with a little bit at a time
incremental pushes down the field,
we could make something out of that,
but he just isn't willing to.
I mean, you and I, I know you talked about this
in the pod last season, you and I went to the Bills
Patriots game after Damar Hamlin with the two,
God, John returns this amazing game.
And I remember, you were, it was, oh God,
first my first NFL game ever and two kickoff returns,
just absolutely insane.
But one of the things that we were talking about
when we were there and you being the stat nerd
and like the looking at things nerd,
you're like, I'm going to be looking at these things
in the game and I'm like, I'm going to go watch football game.
And I remember the thing you kept saying
you wanted to look for is, does Josh have other options?
Is it really that he's got such limited options
and he's throwing it folks who are being covered really well
or is it that he like has options, he's not taking them.
And I think based on what we saw,
TV doesn't always show us some of the options
that Josh has available to him that really are there.
And then you start watching some of those replays
when they start getting any frangles.
You see people who are closer to him, but open.
And is it really, he doesn't want to be totaling up
smaller yardage, like is he not comfortable
with those smaller gains, but you see the teams
that are rolling the bills and they're taking it down
the field one step at a time and defense aside,
the reality is that's what's beating us,
but we're not willing to try that against other teams.
And I don't know what that's all about.
Yeah, Josh did it for three weeks
after that week one debacle against the Jets.
And then all of a sudden, and again,
this is where the Dorsey conversation
gets really complicated because there are now prominent
media figures that are saying that if the Buffalo Bills
don't perform better offensively this game,
it's time for the bills to potentially move on
from Ken Dorsey.
And Dorsey has his deficiencies,
but it's not necessarily in scheme.
He's scheming guys open.
He's making some nice play calls.
The problem with Dorsey is not Dorsey necessarily
the schemer, it's Dorsey the play caller
and Dorsey the coach, because he's having a hard time
getting Josh to adjust to some of these tendencies.
And then he's coaching away the wrong tendencies
out of Josh.
The first four games of the season,
Josh was averaging 6.6 yards per carry,
scripted and unscripted.
That is now down to 3.2 and he's halved his rushing attempts
over the last three games, which the Bills are one and two in,
because they have all but scripted it out of the playbook
and they've encouraged Josh to protect himself,
which he should, but QBs prepared for contact on the run,
rarely get hurt.
It's QBs in the pocket, they get hurt by pressure
they don't anticipate more often than not.
But the organization wants the franchise QB
to take care of himself.
So Dorsey has scripted out and basically coached out of Josh
this improvisational running that he has done
that has gotten them so many chunk yards
and so many first downs.
But I think even beyond that, to your point,
guys are getting schemed open, but Dorsey,
where I have a problem with him as a play caller
and a play sequencer is that he's calling great plays
at the absolute wrong time.
He's got these long developing route trees
that are coming when there are two free rushers against Josh.
Or the opposing team is bringing delayed pressure
that Dorsey either doesn't call down as a hot route check
in the pre-call play sets that he gives to Josh
to debate from, or Josh isn't seeing it
at the line of scrimmage.
Either way, it's a deficiency in coaching
because the coach is not coaching the player
to recognize those things in film sessions,
or he is not giving that player the option
with some of his pre-play call options.
He is radioing down to the QB.
That's where Dorsey is a struggle.
So he's got these cool schemes and these great play calls
where you've got guys running open,
but sometimes they're the wrong play call
for the pressure packages the teams are bringing,
which leads itself to the predictability argument
that a lot of fans are making about Dorsey,
which I think is accurate.
I definitely think that's accurate,
and that's something that's got to be addressed.
But then Josh also deserves a little bit of blame
in this too.
You brought up like his inability
to take the check down sometimes.
And when Josh has gone through his roughest patches,
we've seen that case in point in that Patriots game,
very first flip and play of the game,
and I called this one too.
Me and JJ in the pre-game for the pass game,
were like, Belichick is gonna do some weird shit
in this game.
He's gonna roll out four safeties.
He's gonna have Jabril Peppers playing out in the flat,
bumping a lot of our wide receivers
or bumping a lot of guys in the box,
and then just hovering there to bait Josh.
First play of the game, Dalton Kincaid,
seven yards, cut, stop, wide open.
No one, nine yards within reach of that guy.
Wide open for a seven yard gain on first down.
Nope, Josh takes it to the boundary
where Peppers is baiting him to throw it.
Boom, pick, first play of the game, right?
So yes, some of it is Dorsey,
and Dorsey deserves a huge chunk of the blame
for failing to change his play call sequencing
when he sees what opposing defenses are doing,
and it lends itself to predictability
and playing into their hands.
But Josh also needs to make better decisions too
and take what is available.
Yeah, and I hesitate to say this
because if I'm wrong, I don't wanna sound like an idiot,
but I'm gonna say it.
Hang on, hang on, hang on.
You're on Buffalo bread, my friend.
People come for the idiocy.
They don't come for like sound game analysis.
No, me and JJ joke, us being wrong
is a feature of this, not a bug.
So say what you wanna say, this is a safe space.
Yeah, I'm just anxious about having a James Cook performance
and having my first appearance be a fumble,
but I think last season, I said to a lot of people,
I am not convinced that Josh's elbow is okay.
You could see it and the way he played,
everything changed, what have you.
And the language we were hearing last season
of downplaying, it's fine, don't worry about it,
is a lot of what we're hearing now about the shoulder.
And I'm not convinced that he's toast by any means.
Like don't get me wrong,
I'm not thinking this is as bad as it was,
but I am anxious about a Josh Allen
that starts reasserting himself
by blasting through the defensive line
and just gets it hit just wrong.
And then now we're looking at, can he play next game?
Like it's, I think this team is very close
to the edge of success in this season right now.
I'm not gonna count them out by any means.
I don't think they're in bad shape,
but there are a couple more season ending injuries
away from ending their season period.
And I always have worried since Josh Allen
has come on to this team
and we've really seen him develop as this bigger guy
who kind of uses his weight and his ability,
almost like Ben Routhelsberger in that way
of just like forcing himself down the field when need be.
It's those, okay, his shoulder mostly fine,
he's downplaying it, the team's downplaying it,
everybody's saying it's fine,
but it's just how many compounding injuries like that
can you get before you actually end your season.
So that's always been my concern with Josh
and the way that he plays.
And I think you're right,
we are seeing a very different Josh Allen approach
in the last few games and the way that Dorsey's using him.
And you can see, mind you,
I think there's a lot of drama to this
when they're scanning over the players in the sidelines.
I think half the time like ESPN is just hoping to God
that Stefan Diggs has a bad face on
so they can make a whole story about
how Stefan Diggs is leaving the building.
It's so ridiculous.
Just national media does not understand Diggs at all.
Yeah, he posted turn the page I think on Twitter
earlier this week and everyone's like,
he's leaving the team, it's like, all right.
But I think that you can see frustration on the bench.
I mean, you can see these folks are not happy
about what's happening,
but we're not seeing a lot of change up in the game plan
and there's gotta be,
some things gotta be different
to expect different results against some of these teams.
Yeah, I agree with you.
And I think one of the things
that the, and this kind of gets to some of my points, right?
One of the things I think that I gotta see happen on offense
is I've gotta see Dorsey hit the easy button.
And what I mean by that is there are plays
in the playbook that are easy completions.
We saw them in weeks two, three and four
for Josh and this offense to get into a rhythm
that are also great delayed pressure beaters,
great Blitz beaters.
We saw the Patriots blitz Josh and put him under duress.
It felt like every single play,
he was trying to throw off platform.
And the Tampa Bay Buccaneers can do a lot of the things
that the Patriots could do, that the Giants can do,
and that the Jacksonville Jaguars can do
in terms of locking down some of the limited weapons
on Buffalo's offense,
bracket Stefan Diggs with a safety over the top and a DB,
and then bring some of those delayed pressure looks
that Josh has had a really hard time diagnosing
at the line of scrimmage and that Dorsey has been really late
to adjust to.
I think we're gonna see a lot of those.
So what's the counter to that?
Josh getting the ball out quickly.
So I'm gonna give you some numbers, Justin.
I don't know if you know this about me,
but I'm the numbers guy here, okay?
But Josh Allen this season,
when getting rid of the ball in 2.5 seconds or less
has a 77% completion rate.
He also only has two INTs and eight of his 15 TDs have come
when getting rid of the ball with that level of quickness
and his QB rating skyrockets to almost 103.
When Josh is made to hang on to the ball,
and this seems counterintuitive
because he's such a good improvised passer
and so good off platform,
but when he is made to hang on to the ball
for over 2.5 seconds like the Patriots made him do
for a majority of that game last week,
he becomes mistake prone Josh
and he becomes predictable Josh.
So he's thrown five of his seven INTs
when holding onto the ball for more than 2.5 seconds.
But more importantly to me,
when we talk about sustaining drives with the easy stuff,
his completion percentage goes from 77 to 62%,
a 15% decline.
When you've got such a night and day composition of data
that tells you your QB,
while he may be comfortable and may be effective
at hanging those big scramble out to the right,
launch it down to digs down the field plays,
the data is telling us in his performance
that if Dorsey can scheme up some of these quick Blitzbeaters
to keep the defense honest early in the game
and take them out of their delayed pressure game plan,
they've got a recipe for success with Josh.
Then this gets the team into the rhythm that McDermott wants
and it opens up a whole host of other things
because that means you're getting good chunk yardage
on first down.
And Josh is one of the best throwing QBs in the league
on first down.
He's averaging right now about six yards per attempt,
excuse me, on his first down throws
and he completes his first down throws
at about 75% of the time.
You can get to second and short,
that opens up the run game,
that opens up the Josh Allen scripted run game,
it opens up the short passing game,
or it's a great spot to take a shot down field
if you can get some of these teams
and their second down coverage against the Bills
out of this too high shell that they've been playing.
So for me, it all starts with Allen getting the ball out quick.
If his time to throw, I would say is 2.7 seconds
or less in this game,
that means the Bills are being successful
at mitigating any delayed pressure or Blitz packages
that this Todd Boles coached Tampa Bay Buccaneers team
was gonna roll out there and Boles loves to blitz.
They're gonna blitz in this game without a doubt.
Yeah.
So that's number, that is my first point
that I wanna get to.
My second point, Justin,
it's on the defensive side of the ball.
Now we know there's a lot of injuries
on the defensive side of the ball.
There's not much that the team can do here for that
and they're going up against some decent weapons.
Again, Mayfield is a limited QB, but so is Mac Jones
and the Patriots were able to successfully scheme their way
into making Mac Jones basically look like Tom Brady,
including up to a game winning drive in the fourth quarter.
So while the scheming offensively
for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers has not been
to that level of efficacy, we are a week to weekly,
again, it's a short turnaround
and the Bills may not be prepared
for whatever they're gonna roll out there.
You've gotta worry about Mike Evans.
You've gotta worry about some other weapons
that this Tampa Bay Buccaneers team has.
For me, you're not getting Matt Milano back.
You might get out at Oliver back.
He's been limited in practice with his injury,
but you're not gonna get Trey White
and some of these other pieces back.
To me, the second key in this
is you've gotta roll with speed.
You've gotta overwhelm the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense
with some of these young speed pieces
like Tarell Bernard, Dorian Williams,
and I'm gonna say it, Bills Mafia, Kayri Lee Elam.
I get he only played special team snaps against the Patriots
because the Bills are worried about him getting exposed.
He played better towards the end of that Giants game
and there is no one in that DB room
with the raw speed and athleticism that Elam has.
More often than not,
if you can roll out better athletes, you're gonna win
because here's the thing, Justin.
We took out Dorian Williams from that Patriots game
because Mac Jones was doing a good job
taking advantage of his aggressiveness.
Baker Mayfield has that same capability
to look him off with his eyes
or fool him with his eyes and coverage.
They've got the ability in the run game in Tampa Bay
to do some of those things as well
with an imperfect but pretty stout offensive line.
McDermott kowtowed to that
and he took Williams out of the game
and then didn't even play Elam.
But what does that leave us with?
That leaves us with Tarell Dodson
who is okay in run stopping
and substandard in past coverage,
which is what the Tampa Bay Buccaneers want to do
to open up the middle of the field.
And Kyer Elam not being out there
means Dame Jackson is playing.
And we love Dame Jackson,
but he is an athletically limited player,
which is something that we know about.
We know what happens.
If Jackson and Dodson are out there,
they become vulnerabilities.
We don't know with any certainty
because of how young in their developmental arc
these players are and Williams and Elam,
you've got to put them out there.
Is there gonna be a wider range of variants
in their performance?
Absolutely.
Dodson and Jackson, they bring you a floor for sure,
but they don't bring you the ceiling that these guys do.
And that's what you're gonna need
for this defense to get back on track.
High ceiling splash plays that expose the topic,
that take advantage of toxic differential
for the Buffalo Bills and put them in a position
to make some really big splash plays
and turn the ball over back to this Bills defense.
So for me, the second key is trust the young guys.
They're gonna struggle, especially Elam,
but you gotta let them take their lumps
because Trey White's not coming back anytime soon
and you know who Dane Jackson is.
Matt Milano's not coming back anytime soon
and you know who Tyrell Dodson is.
You've gotta let these young guys take their lumps
so that they're ready for the murderers row
that the schedule turns into at the end of the season.
If you can't trust them
against a limited Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense,
I don't know when you can trust them.
So now is the time, let the young Bucs play.
When you said, you know, let the young Bucs play.
I mean, the elephant in the room,
people got so excited about Von Miller
coming over to the Bills
and now we're looking at the season,
six naps against the Patriots, man, it's 34 years old, right?
Like 34 years old.
You just don't recover the same way.
And I don't understand one of my tilt out four things
that I was gonna talk about is, you know,
if he's healthy, why isn't he playing?
Why are we dressing him and rushing him back
if he's not ready?
Like I know our defense is hurting.
I mean, you've got so many people that are sitting it out,
but long-term scheme, I mean, you've gotta look at,
do you hold these players in reserve
and wait until the moments where we really need them the most?
I just, I don't know what's going on with Von Miller.
I'm very anxious about that.
I'm confident he will come back and be playing,
but talking about a player,
he had eight sacks over 11 games last season.
Like he was a major part of what made our team, our team.
He still led the team in sacks after he got injured.
Exactly, and losing him to me
is one of the biggest setbacks we saw last season.
I mean, I'm not gonna replay last season,
but like he's a major part of that defense.
And the reason that we have to really listen
to what you're saying is we can't rely on a 34 year old
who's on this limited injury base,
can't play as much as he should be able to play.
We don't know if he is gonna come back
and be able to output the same way he did pre-injury, right?
Like we just haven't seen it.
And I'm not confident that we'll be able to see all that,
especially without the other parts of the defense
in place that he had last season.
Correct, correct.
So you gotta start to trust some of these younger guys.
And I think they're working Von Miller back slowly.
And I think once Von, if, you know, these ACL injuries,
we saw with Trey White last year,
it took him a while to look like himself again.
And he even still needed the full off season after last year
to really fully recover.
I think the hope is, especially with Jones being out,
the hope is that Miller gets to a point
where he's healthy enough to play
on some of these closeout drives.
Cause that's what Miller is.
Miller is a closer.
And I said this when we signed him, I'm like,
I don't think anyone wants to say it,
but by the end of this contract,
Von Miller is very likely gonna be a third down specialist.
But here's what you can do
if Miller is healthy enough to do that.
You can line up Greg Rousseau at the three tech
next to Ed Oliver, as long as Ed Oliver is healthy.
You put Leonard Floyd next to Greg Rousseau,
and then you've got Von Miller on the other side
next to Ed Oliver.
And that is your NASCAR pass rush closing package
on third and passing situations.
And at the end of the game to shut the other team down.
It doesn't fully make up for the lack of run stopping ability
that we lose with the Quan Jones,
but the hope is that in those third and long situations,
and when you're closing out a game,
teams are looking to pass the ball anyway.
So they're slowly working Miller back,
but I ultimately think that's the schematic dream
for McDermott is to have those four guys lined up
as your defensive front to close out games
and put the other QB down.
So they're working Miller slowly, slowly, slowly up to that.
It remains to be seen
if he's gonna be able to recover enough to have an impact.
I mean, dude, like you said,
six total snaps didn't play the second half at all.
They really could have used Von Miller
on that closeout drive where Mac Jones basically marched them
down the field with Dinkin Dunks and screenplays.
They really could have used their closer in that moment,
but Miller is just, he's just not ready.
He's not fully recovered yet.
So they got to rely on some of these younger guys
until then and give them a shot.
Rousseau needs to step up.
Hopefully Oliver can be healthy, but yeah, man,
AJ Appanazza needs to continue to ball
out of his mind for sure.
Absolutely, yeah.
So yeah, man, good takes, strong takes.
So for me, my couple of points here
is let the young Bucks play against the Bucks on defense.
Yes, you're gonna get some volatility.
Deal with the volatility
because those guys give you the higher ceiling
in this injury environment on defense.
Point number two for me, easy button.
Ken Dorsey needs to scheme up some stuff
to get the ball out of Josh's hands.
Assume that teams are gonna be blitzing Josh again,
because while some people think you still can't blitz Josh,
you can definitely blitz this offensive line
and that will as a byproduct,
make some problems for Josh.
Absolutely.
Hit the easy button.
I wanna see 2.7 seconds and under for Josh's time to throw.
And I wanna see some easy stuff down the field
to get this team in rhythm
and open up things in the run game.
For you, sir, recap for us again.
What are your main points here?
It's the turnover battle.
It's winning in the run game
to open things up in the play action
and then getting some play calling consistency
that better involves Dalton Kincaid.
Am I right?
Yeah, absolutely.
Good stuff.
And let James Cook cook.
Let him cook, man.
If Latavius Murray, and I love Latavius Murray,
but he's a journeyman running back,
if that dude gets another start over James Cook,
I'm gonna lose my mind.
James Cook is the guy, let him be the guy,
because outside of Stefan Diggs,
he is your next most dynamic weapon
that is not Josh Allen on that offense.
Why he is not starting the game
and getting the majority of the Snapshare is beyond me.
But stop playing games.
And that feels like a McDermott thing.
Like McDermott wasn't happy with the way Cook was hitting
holes, so he tried to put in Latavius Murray
as a defensive coach would to get some more physicality
in the game.
James Cook is way more dynamic.
That's your dude.
You let that dude cook, my friend.
Let him cook.
I love Latavius Murray.
This is not Latavius Murray Slander,
but you can't start hurry and play sick cook.
Let Cook freaking play is ridiculous to play around
like this when the team's on the verge of going four and four
in their first eight games, having Cincinnati,
stop playing games, McD, love you, but stop playing games.
All right.
So Justin, we now move on to prediction sure to go wrong,
which is what people, like I said, come for.
These are predictions that JJ and I will make
that almost assuredly go wrong game to game.
So we always start with our score prediction.
So as the honored guest here, I will let you go first.
Where does the score for this game land for you?
Yeah, so I'm looking Bill's 27, Buck and NieR's 10.
Damn.
In true Bill's fashion, I think that,
so the big talk right now is Josh Allen
is four touchdowns away from 200.
And so I just have this feeling in my heart of hearts
that the, of course, what a Bill's win looks like
is that fun side quest gets abandoned,
but we still happen to win the game.
I think the reality is if this team can really utilize
the combination of Diggs, Davis, Kain, Hardy, I mean,
how often are they on the field at the same time?
Cause I think they're the most effective combination
that we're really playing with.
And I think if they really get into that groove this game,
they're going to run away with the game.
I think they've got something to prove they're home.
I never play into the statistics about like,
they always like to throw these like very,
when a team's not doing so hot,
I love reading the like random thing they throw out
as a team.
So the Bill's, the two things that the Bill's are saying,
which is funny is that we're two and O versus the NFC.
It's like, okay.
And then was the other one.
It was that Josh Allen is five and O playing on Thursdays.
Yeah, we don't care.
So that's science.
Right, exactly.
But I think, you know, I think that they've got a lot of,
they know they have to get back on track.
I think they're coming into this game
knowing that if they don't bring that full performance up,
that they're going to be in really rough shape.
And to me, I think that's typically a recipe
for a Bill's blowout.
And that's what I'm hoping for.
Cool.
This is the first time in the history of the pod,
I've debated not picking the Bill's.
And here's the reason why.
This is a short week.
The offensive misquies that we are seeing
are not just a product of execution,
but they're a product of poor coaching
and poor game preparation.
And game preparation does not get better
when you have less time to prepare for an opponent.
And I had this game circled preseason
as one that could be a trap spot for the Bill's
after coming off a couple of
what I thought would be divisional wins
against Miami and New England.
And then a relatively easy patch there
with the New Jersey Giants,
Jacksonville Jaguars and the Patriots.
Teams that are poorly coached
or at least coaches that are not preparing well,
it doesn't get better when you've got a three day turnaround.
Add to that the dinged up nature of this roster right now.
And I almost, almost for the first time
didn't pick the Bill's to win.
But I am going to pick the Bill's to win,
but I think it's going to be ugly
because these Thursday night games are always ugly.
And I think teams like you, fans like you
that are hoping for Josh Allen to become the Terminator
that we know he can be and throw for five touchdowns
and rush for another one and everybody getting involved,
I think it's going to be really hard to come by.
I think this game ultimately winds up being
Buffalo Bill's 20, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17.
The spread on this game is obscene
and Vegas should be ashamed of themselves.
This line opened at seven and a half.
And the over under on this game is 41.
I take the under on total points
and there is no way the Bill's are covering this spread
on a short turnaround.
Seven and a half is way, way, way too high.
They opened as nine and a half point favorites
against the Patriots.
That line came down to seven and a half
because the betting public is onto the fact
that the Bill's start slow and they have a problem
with defenses that are the profile
of these Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
So I say the Bill's win, but it's an ugly one
and it's 20 to 17 and they don't cover
and we take the under in this game.
Yeah.
I think there's a window and I don't want this to be true.
I'm an aspirate.
When I'm rooting for a football team
that's down by 14 points of the minute left to go
on the guy that's like, they could still win.
They're still away, right?
So I'm always gonna be on the optimism side,
but in my four hours of prep with my Bill's fan experts,
the consensus was one of two things,
the Bill's blowout or wheels are off disappointment.
That was kind of the back and forth
and I went with my gut and bet on my bills
because that's just how I am.
But a lot of the consistent answer I was getting is
this is either gonna be more of the same,
that ugly, horrible play in just the wrong times,
just enough times type of game,
or they're gonna just come alive.
But I think a lot of what you're saying
about how much time they have left in between
and how little prep time, I mean,
that's something that definitely think about
and is dampening my excitement,
but not enough to get me off of my prediction.
Yeah, and it's just, these Thursday night games,
they suck, they suck to play in, they suck to watch,
none of them have been good, none of them have been
entertaining and I don't know why this would be any different.
So, all right, so let's go to some prop bets.
So Justin for this, we throw out some player stats
or some team stats and then JJ and I pick the over under
and we see who's wrong, usually it's both of us.
All right, so over under, this has been a key for me.
So Josh Allen time to throw, over under 2.7 seconds.
What do you think it's gonna be?
Oh God, gonna say, and so to be clear,
because I'm not a big bet person.
So if I say over.
We need to change that about you.
So if you say over, that's two point,
you mean that he's gonna take him longer
to throw the ball through 2.7 seconds.
Okay, that's what I figured.
Yeah, I think it is.
I think that the way that they've been playing him
this season has proven that they aren't,
he's just not making those decisions as quick
as he used to.
So even though I have this strong feeling
that they're gonna do really well,
I do still think that his reaction time
is gonna be a little bit slower than it should be.
Yeah, I'm in order for them to win,
it's gotta be the under, but I've got them winning ugly.
So that tells me it's gonna be closer to three seconds
as well.
So I'm gonna take the over on this too,
just because I think there is the wish fulfillment
of what I want them to do,
but then there is the reality on the ground.
And sometimes you are what your record says you are.
And this team is one and two in their last three games
and Josh's average time to throw
has been three seconds or more in all of those games.
Cause teams are covering up his number one choice.
He's hesitant to go to a second read.
And because he's so damned athletic,
he knows he can extend the play with his legs,
which he did to great effect in the New England game.
So I think it needs to be under 2.7,
but I don't think it's gonna be,
which is why I'm leading to some of this ugly prediction.
All right, next up, this is a staple prop
because we love James Cook on this pod.
And we feel like he's gotta be a key
to any Buffalo Bills win.
So James Cook over under 7.5 receptions this game.
So just so you know, he is averaging 4.5 on the season.
So my theory with this prop is that Josh is gonna be forced
to check down to him more.
And Cook has been running wild open
in the middle of the field and in the flat
when he leaks out after the snap,
either play action or out of shotgun.
And I think at some point Josh has to go to him
in the passing game and in the check down game
cause this dude is a yak machine.
So I'm saying James Cook eats in the passing game here.
And this is a relative weakness because Tampa Bay,
they wanna bring their linebackers
on some exotic blitz packages
and that could open up Cook in the middle of the field for them.
Yeah, so over under 7.5.
I'm gonna say over with the asterisk of,
of course, assuming that they're putting him in
and giving him the time to do so.
But I'm gonna say over, I mean, I can't sit here
and be saying bills by 17 without giving some indications
that I think they're gonna do some things right.
I can't sit here and say like,
I think that Alan's gonna take too much time
and I don't think Cook's gonna get this.
Like at some point that just doesn't make
the calculus work for me.
But I think, I think everything you said about
if he's being used in the correct way,
he really is an output machine for this team
and he needs to be seen as a natural counter
to the overprotection of digs.
I think it's the ticket.
And if the bills have found their way
or started to find their way in the last three days,
then that's one of the major changes
that I think needs to happen.
Yep, I agree.
I will take the over as well.
I actually think Cook has the ability,
has the chance to have a really good game
in the passing game here, less touches in the rush game
as a result, but I think he's got potential
to really eat in eight past catches for a running back
is like Austin Eckler levels of effectiveness.
So I would love to see Cook take a step
into that rarefied air and it's a good matchup
for him to do that in.
All right, last one, Dawson Knox out indefinitely
with resurgery, which means Dalton Kincaid
is our primary tight end and might be our only tight end
because Quentin Morris is also battling a foot injury as well.
So over under half a touchdown catch for Dalton Kincaid.
Basically, will Dalton Kincaid get his first career tutty?
Do I want them to?
Yes, I mean, my whole thing is the digs, Davis,
Kincaid, Hardy, Quad Feta.
I guess would be that word.
Take the over then.
Take the over.
I'll take the over.
I mean, I think now that Knox is out,
the question is, are they going to utilize
a fullback and blocking schemes more often
and how are they going to use Kincaid really effectively?
Again, I think that the bills are going to see the light
this week.
I have no reason to believe that other than blind hope
and dumb luck, which is what fuels most bills fans.
So what I'm thinking is, I'm going to take the over.
I mean, I hope that for him.
And I think if we're going to have a good game,
it's going to rely on us using all of our weapons.
I agree.
But I'm going to take the under on this
because it took Ken Dorsey seven weeks
to discover Dalton Kincaid.
So I, and again, ugly game is what I'm predicting,
which means lots of check downs to cook,
muddy some things up to Davis potentially and digs.
I don't know that there is a world where Kincaid,
and we want him to take this next step quickly
because this is wish fulfillment for us bills fans.
I just don't know that he gets there.
So I'm going to take the under.
I think he has a solid game.
I'd say like five receptions and 65 yards,
but I don't know that he's going to catch
his first study of the year.
And that Justin concludes prediction, sure to go wrong.
So everything I said is probably going to be wrong,
fully acknowledged that,
but that's the beauty of this segment.
And Justin, congratulations to you
because you've gotten through your first guest host patch
here on Buffalo Bread.
How do you feel?
Feels great.
I mean, I told my wife that I was going to be coming on
and talking and she said, without missing a beat,
she goes, do they want someone who doesn't know
that much about football to come in and share their opinion?
I was like, oh wow.
Wow.
But yeah, she's always the ones that love us
that cut the deepest, isn't it?
Yeah.
And I think, you know, my,
I've gotten really good at following the bills
and really bad at knowing what other teams can do.
So I was glad that this focused mostly
on what do we think the bills are capable of
and a little bit less on what we think the bucks
are capable of.
So it's going to be really interesting.
I'm really excited to watch and see kind of where we end up
and who was right or wrong.
Well, we're definitely going to be wrong
on pretty much everything.
Let's just hope we're not wrong about our score prediction
because the bills really need to win heading
in a prime time against Cincinnati
a couple Sundays from now.
But Justin, thank you again for subbing in for JJ.
We appreciate it.
For all of you, those of you listening at home,
like, share and subscribe wherever you get podcasts,
Google, Apple and Spotify.
And as always, no bills.
Plus, maybe we will have more and try!