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And welcome to Buffalo Bread with Dan and not JJ.

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JJ is still on injured reserve for us folks.

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This week is years recovering from a shoulder injury.

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We had the pleasure of one Brandon Bennett

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on our post-game recap of the stunning loss and upset

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of the New England Patriots in the Buffalo Bills here

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in week seven.

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And we are now fortunate enough to be joined by another

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stand-in host being promoted from the practice squad

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to the 53 man roster to help us preview the Tampa Bay

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Buccaneers and Buffalo Bills coming up here Thursday night

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in prime time on Amazon Prime.

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Our guest host this week is Buffalo Bills fan

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Justin Dickerson, friend of the pod and friend of the team,

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Buffalo Bills fan since college I want to say.

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Justin, why don't you introduce yourself to our

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seven to 12 weekly listeners and tell us a little bit

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about how you came to love our beloved Buffalo Bills.

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Well, thank you Dan.

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Long time listener, first time caller.

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Nice, nice.

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I, so I grew up in the shadow of the New York Giants.

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My dad was a Giants fan and so although now as a

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Die Hard Bills fan I must say the New Jersey Giants.

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And you know, my dad really raised me to be a Giants fan.

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He's from the Binghamton area and his whole family

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are big on Giants.

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I rode the Giants high of when I was in high school.

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I watched the Giants beat the Patriots and Superbowl.

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It was a great time.

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Then I went to college at SUNY Fredonia,

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which is in Western New York and anybody who's been

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to that college can tell you it's just, you know,

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it's just dangerous to not be a Bills fan in Western New York.

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It's just not, not advised, but a lot of my really close

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friends grew up in the Buffalo area.

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They were really Die Hard Bills fans for a long time.

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And we really bonded.

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I mean, this is 2011, 12, 13, 14 Buffalo Bills.

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So we bonded over the collective disappointment

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in that team and really just seeing what that looks like.

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The ejected misery and hopelessness of that era.

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Yeah, 2012 happened and the Giants had their season

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and I'm just sitting as a Bills fan watching going,

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oh, I made a decision.

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But you know, it's just been watching the Bills come

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to hear from there has just been a really cool experience.

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And there's just something to be said about the collective

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fandom of Bills fans and coming from all these like 20

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and 30 year old Bills fans who were raised in kind of this

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like era of misery and are now starting to see these teams

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really come to light.

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It's just a really great time to be a Bills fan.

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I agree.

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All things aside with with our recent spat of poor games

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over the last three games to potentially substandard teams,

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it is good to be a Bills fan.

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And it is important every now and then Justin

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to bring that fresh perspective.

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That is much appreciated, sir,

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because sometimes JJ and I can get into our own feelings

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about this team in a lot of different ways.

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And those feelings over the past three games have been

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very, very negative.

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So we're hoping that the Bills are gonna get back on track,

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usually a solid team in response to a loss.

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They have a quick turnaround,

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which honestly could be a blessing and disguise for them

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after the turd they laid against New England in New England.

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This could be a great opportunity,

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short week, flush it, get prepared,

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and then welcome a very a solid but beatable opponent

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in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to Orchard Park, New York.

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So Justin, here's how we typically do things.

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I'm the numbers guy, if you've ever listened to the pod.

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So I will give us the rankings of where each of these

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stand team stand by DVOA.

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And then after that, you and I will simply get into three

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things that we think will help the Buffalo Bills

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win this particular game, okay?

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We'll banter a little bit,

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we'll do a segment called Prediction Sure to Go Wrong,

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which is really what people come to the pod for

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is finding out how wrong JJ and I are week to week.

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And then we'll call it good, sound awesome?

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Sounds great.

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All right, so here we go,

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setting up our Thursday night matchup

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between our beloved Buffalo Bills

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and the Baker May Feel lead Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

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So as it currently sits,

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despite some of the struggles the Bills have seen

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in the last three weeks,

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they're currently ranked fourth in overall DVOA.

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Only Kansas City, San Francisco, and now Baltimore

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are ahead of them in overall DVOA.

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This Justin is surprising,

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given I think the narrative of a lot of Bills Mafia,

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which is the offense is a problem, which don't get me wrong,

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the offense has been a problem over the last three games.

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But really this decline in DVOA

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where the Bills were the number one rated team

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and number two rated team just a couple of weeks ago

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is really coming as a result of the attrition and defense.

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So the Buffalo Bills offensive DVOA ranking

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is still third overall in the league,

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but the defensive rank is 13th.

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And for a team that prioritizes special teams,

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we now currently sit 24th in overall special teams DVOA.

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A lot of this having to do

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with a lot of the ineffectiveness

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over the last few games of Tyler Bass.

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He has had in his past two games, three missed field goals.

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We're earlier in the season,

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like so many other aspects of this Buffalo Bills team,

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this team was automatic.

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The visiting squad at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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currently ranked 20th in overall DVOA.

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From an offensive standpoint,

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this is not a strong offensive team,

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but it is a team I think that mirrors

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and wants to do a lot of the things

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that the New England Patriots did to us,

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which is try to establish the run.

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They've got a defensive minded head coach

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and they still have some decent weapons

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that they want to open things up

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for Baker across the middle of the field.

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And Baker, unlike Mac,

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well, not great arm strength,

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does they have the ability to test the boundaries

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every now and then given the right shot.

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They still got Mike Evans on the team,

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but still this is an offense that has really struggled.

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And this is a team that is coming off of a loss

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to the Desmond Ritter let Atlanta Falcons.

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But, and this is what worries me the most.

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From a defensive standpoint, this squad is 12

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and they've got some players on this team.

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Guys like Devin White,

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they can create a lot of havoc

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similar to how the Giants used a lot of their linebacking core,

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how the Patriots use their linebackers and safeties.

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They've got some pieces, Justin, on this Tampa Bay defense

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that could potentially execute the game plan

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that these other three teams over the past three weeks

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have executed so successfully

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against the Buffalo Bills, which is takeaway,

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Steph on digs is the primary option,

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used delayed pressure and well-timed blitzes

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to overwhelm the offensive line

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and get Josh off platform and holding onto the ball.

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So there's a couple of keys,

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both offensively and defensively

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that I wanna get into here, Justin,

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to talk about where the Buffalo Bills

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could potentially get back on track and secure W

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and what is a much needed win

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in a very competitive AFC East.

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But I wanna start with you, you are a guest.

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So I would like to start off with your keys to this game.

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So why don't we go there?

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So Justin, point number one,

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what do you think the Buffalo Bills need to do

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first and foremost to secure a victory

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over the Buccaneers on Thursday?

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Yeah, I think, I mean, first things first,

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and I think this is simple,

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but it has proven not to be as simple

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as it should be for our Bills,

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is they need to protect the football, right?

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Like when they turn the ball over,

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they lose plain and simple.

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And when they protect the ball, they win.

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I mean, I think that the way that they've been playing

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and the way that they've been really asserting themselves

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hasn't been the same Bills we've seen.

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I think there's a lot of,

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I'm looking at these games

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and I'm looking at the way that certain players

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are being used and I think there's a lot of caution.

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I mean, with our injured list, it makes sense,

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but you're seeing Vaan Miller going for six snaps

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against New England.

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You're seeing Josh Allen on plays

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where last season Josh Allen would be diving

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for the line of scrimmage as fast as he can,

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making those safe, smart throws or throwaways.

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Like just, I think the energy and the fire of the team

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hasn't been where I've wanted to see it

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in the last few games.

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And I think a lot of that is there.

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I think letting, I mean,

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not to have the snappy line of the day,

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but let James cook cook.

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I mean, I think the reality is we need to establish the run.

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I think a lot of people have figured out

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what they expect from Josh Allen in the game

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and they understand the Josh Allen

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to Stefan Diggs pipeline pretty well.

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I'm sure that in the off season,

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this is a lot of what coaching staffs

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and other teams have been focusing on is

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how do we break up that connection between those two players?

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And we've seen how effectively that has prevented the builds

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from putting points on the board.

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I think establishing the run

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leaves defenses vulnerable to play action,

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helps them keep the heat off of Josh Allen

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and Stefan Diggs and gives us back the option

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that isn't currently working out for us the way that it should.

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I mean, obviously there's still making some things

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happen here and there,

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but if there's an expectation coming out of the field

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that that's all you need to protect against,

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that's what happens.

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I love that.

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I love that take.

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And I don't know if you listened to the pot or not,

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but JJ is somewhere recovering from his shoulder surgery,

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loving what he is hearing at this point.

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Cause when you, James Cook, I think people forget

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he started his NFL career with a fumble

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after never having fumbled at all in college.

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And then he was benched for like the next six series

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in the opening set of his rookie year.

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But he's a reliable steward of the ball,

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which people oftentimes forget.

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So I love what you're saying about establishing the run,

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not just to make play action a more effective threat,

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which I'll get into my things about Josh

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and his play action efficacy,

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but is to take care of the football

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and limit opportunities for turnovers

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because James Cook vice grips for hands,

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even at points of contact.

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No, I love that.

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I love that.

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Keep going with your thought.

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Yeah. And then I think my final thing is

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we need to get Dalton Kedke going and get him going early.

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I think the more passes you take underneath,

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the more likely you already hit a few good ones off the top.

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I think that the bill's offense is getting,

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I don't want to say one dimensional,

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but limited dimensional in what they're trying.

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One of my very good friends who in the four hours

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since you invited me to join the pod and I've been on the pod,

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I went and did a run through of all my favorite Bill's fans

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and said, what would you say if you were on the pod?

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And one of them said that,

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and there was obviously a lot of hate for Dorsey

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because I think that's kind of the fan current trend

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is fire Ken Dorsey.

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That's the solution.

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I think how he put it was Ken Dorsey is a Madden player

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who's got three of his buttons stuck

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and he's just trying the same ones over and over

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in bad situations.

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00:10:57,120 --> 00:10:58,960
I think the reality is there's a lot of weapons

261
00:10:58,960 --> 00:11:00,000
left on this team.

262
00:11:00,000 --> 00:11:04,240
We can woe and woe is us that we've got a lot of injuries

263
00:11:04,240 --> 00:11:05,760
and the fact is we do have a lot of injuries,

264
00:11:05,760 --> 00:11:08,360
but our offense still has so many strong options

265
00:11:08,360 --> 00:11:10,960
on the field and there's so many different places

266
00:11:10,960 --> 00:11:13,600
to put them and so many things we should be doing

267
00:11:13,600 --> 00:11:17,280
that I think should really be equaling greater output,

268
00:11:17,280 --> 00:11:20,120
but I'm not seeing us try different things.

269
00:11:20,120 --> 00:11:23,480
I'm seeing us run the same game plan every game

270
00:11:23,480 --> 00:11:26,080
and then by the time we're starting to make changes,

271
00:11:26,080 --> 00:11:28,800
we're talking end of third quarter, fourth quarter

272
00:11:28,800 --> 00:11:31,440
and we're seeing these bills come trying to come back

273
00:11:31,440 --> 00:11:32,840
from the dead at the end of games

274
00:11:32,840 --> 00:11:34,560
and as we've seen too often,

275
00:11:34,560 --> 00:11:37,440
sometimes that's just not enough time to bring the game back.

276
00:11:38,360 --> 00:11:42,680
No, I'll agree with everything you are saying

277
00:11:42,680 --> 00:11:46,360
and I wanna start in reverse order with your points.

278
00:11:46,360 --> 00:11:51,360
So there is the multiplicity issue being multiple,

279
00:11:51,680 --> 00:11:52,800
getting Kinkade involved,

280
00:11:52,800 --> 00:11:55,760
but more importantly, stop being predictable

281
00:11:55,760 --> 00:11:57,200
and I think that has been a problem

282
00:11:57,200 --> 00:11:59,280
for the bills over the last three games.

283
00:11:59,280 --> 00:12:01,640
The London game against Jacksonville,

284
00:12:01,640 --> 00:12:03,360
Mike Haldwell, the defensive coordinator,

285
00:12:03,360 --> 00:12:06,680
rolled out a really great game plan that we talked about,

286
00:12:06,680 --> 00:12:09,840
JJ and I, which was bringing delayed pressure.

287
00:12:09,840 --> 00:12:13,080
So teams don't typically like to blitz Josh

288
00:12:13,080 --> 00:12:15,360
because he's so good off platform

289
00:12:15,360 --> 00:12:17,560
and he's so good off script,

290
00:12:17,560 --> 00:12:20,720
but teams are clearly seeing something

291
00:12:20,720 --> 00:12:23,080
in the way that these Buffalo bills route trees

292
00:12:23,080 --> 00:12:26,560
are developing and the time it takes for Josh

293
00:12:26,560 --> 00:12:28,920
to go through his progressions when he is off script

294
00:12:28,920 --> 00:12:31,520
this season, because he doesn't have a lot of rapport

295
00:12:31,520 --> 00:12:33,160
with some of these new weapons,

296
00:12:33,160 --> 00:12:35,080
they're taking advantage of that.

297
00:12:35,080 --> 00:12:37,320
And prior to this season,

298
00:12:37,320 --> 00:12:39,560
coaches would argue that you can never blitz Josh Allen

299
00:12:39,560 --> 00:12:40,840
because it's a death sentence.

300
00:12:40,840 --> 00:12:42,280
I think over the last three games,

301
00:12:42,280 --> 00:12:44,480
teams have figured out a way to blitz him

302
00:12:44,480 --> 00:12:46,520
because they're seeing predictability

303
00:12:46,520 --> 00:12:49,080
and the offense that Dorsey is calling.

304
00:12:49,080 --> 00:12:51,400
And what's more is, and to your point,

305
00:12:51,400 --> 00:12:55,280
these, the Buffalo bills are not adjusting their game plan

306
00:12:55,280 --> 00:12:58,080
early enough, in quarter and in the first half

307
00:12:58,080 --> 00:12:59,680
to get into a rhythm.

308
00:12:59,680 --> 00:13:01,560
And I think this is what McDermott was getting at

309
00:13:01,560 --> 00:13:04,160
in his post game press conference

310
00:13:04,160 --> 00:13:06,360
when it was being pressed by Joe Biscaliah

311
00:13:06,360 --> 00:13:09,720
from the athletic about McDermott saying

312
00:13:09,720 --> 00:13:11,280
he wanted to get into a better rhythm.

313
00:13:11,280 --> 00:13:13,400
I think this is what he was trying to get at.

314
00:13:13,400 --> 00:13:16,560
They need to adjust rather than stubbornly stick

315
00:13:16,560 --> 00:13:19,840
to a game plan that other teams have clearly read into

316
00:13:19,840 --> 00:13:21,760
and clearly know how to counter.

317
00:13:21,760 --> 00:13:24,800
These delayed pressures that we're seeing game

318
00:13:24,800 --> 00:13:28,400
after game after game have been an absolute brick wall

319
00:13:28,400 --> 00:13:30,600
for the Buffalo bills and trying to score points

320
00:13:30,600 --> 00:13:32,680
in the first half, 10 total points

321
00:13:32,680 --> 00:13:34,800
over their last three games.

322
00:13:34,800 --> 00:13:37,760
In the second half to Dorsey's credit,

323
00:13:37,760 --> 00:13:40,240
he is making the adjustments that he needs to

324
00:13:40,240 --> 00:13:42,160
to hit the easy button for Josh

325
00:13:42,160 --> 00:13:45,000
and develop some really quick uncomplicated routes

326
00:13:45,000 --> 00:13:46,760
that find soft spots in zone,

327
00:13:46,760 --> 00:13:48,560
hence our boy Dalton Kincaid

328
00:13:48,560 --> 00:13:51,320
that give Josh some really easy completions

329
00:13:51,320 --> 00:13:53,840
to get the ball moving.

330
00:13:53,840 --> 00:13:56,680
And this is a great juxtaposition, I think,

331
00:13:56,680 --> 00:13:59,320
because when you get guys like Kincaid involved

332
00:13:59,320 --> 00:14:01,920
who quickly find spots in zone,

333
00:14:01,920 --> 00:14:04,000
they can be a hot route that helps mitigate

334
00:14:04,000 --> 00:14:06,720
some of that pressure or keep some of those delayed blitzes

335
00:14:06,720 --> 00:14:09,960
honest at least, because you're gonna have to make a choice

336
00:14:09,960 --> 00:14:12,000
as the blitz are coming from the second level.

337
00:14:12,000 --> 00:14:13,800
Do I let Kincaid flash out

338
00:14:13,800 --> 00:14:16,000
or do I continue on my blitz of Josh?

339
00:14:16,000 --> 00:14:17,600
Nine times out of 10, they're gonna continue

340
00:14:17,600 --> 00:14:19,320
on their blitz rather than make the decision

341
00:14:19,320 --> 00:14:20,960
to drop back into coverage.

342
00:14:20,960 --> 00:14:23,160
Very rarely do these delayed blitz packages

343
00:14:23,160 --> 00:14:25,360
allow for those types of adaptations.

344
00:14:25,360 --> 00:14:27,560
So you roll a guy like Kincaid out there

345
00:14:27,560 --> 00:14:30,360
and all of a sudden you've got a quick easy completion

346
00:14:30,360 --> 00:14:33,480
for seven yards, chunk at a time, chunk at a time

347
00:14:33,480 --> 00:14:35,000
that keeps the ball rolling.

348
00:14:35,000 --> 00:14:36,480
Well, and you and I have talked, not to interrupt,

349
00:14:36,480 --> 00:14:38,640
but you and I have talked in many occasions

350
00:14:38,640 --> 00:14:42,880
about how Josh Allen doesn't seem satisfied

351
00:14:42,880 --> 00:14:44,840
with that slow roll progress.

352
00:14:44,840 --> 00:14:48,080
And it's so often doesn't work for us in that

353
00:14:48,080 --> 00:14:50,920
there's so many games where if they could just simply

354
00:14:50,920 --> 00:14:52,960
be satisfied with a little bit at a time

355
00:14:52,960 --> 00:14:55,600
incremental pushes down the field,

356
00:14:55,600 --> 00:14:57,320
we could make something out of that,

357
00:14:57,320 --> 00:14:58,640
but he just isn't willing to.

358
00:14:58,640 --> 00:15:00,600
I mean, you and I, I know you talked about this

359
00:15:00,600 --> 00:15:04,120
in the pod last season, you and I went to the Bills

360
00:15:04,120 --> 00:15:07,440
Patriots game after Damar Hamlin with the two,

361
00:15:07,440 --> 00:15:09,360
God, John returns this amazing game.

362
00:15:09,360 --> 00:15:11,520
And I remember, you were, it was, oh God,

363
00:15:11,520 --> 00:15:16,520
first my first NFL game ever and two kickoff returns,

364
00:15:17,440 --> 00:15:18,880
just absolutely insane.

365
00:15:18,880 --> 00:15:21,880
But one of the things that we were talking about

366
00:15:21,880 --> 00:15:24,440
when we were there and you being the stat nerd

367
00:15:24,440 --> 00:15:25,800
and like the looking at things nerd,

368
00:15:25,800 --> 00:15:27,480
you're like, I'm going to be looking at these things

369
00:15:27,480 --> 00:15:29,520
in the game and I'm like, I'm going to go watch football game.

370
00:15:29,520 --> 00:15:31,240
And I remember the thing you kept saying

371
00:15:31,240 --> 00:15:34,960
you wanted to look for is, does Josh have other options?

372
00:15:34,960 --> 00:15:37,560
Is it really that he's got such limited options

373
00:15:37,560 --> 00:15:40,920
and he's throwing it folks who are being covered really well

374
00:15:40,920 --> 00:15:44,960
or is it that he like has options, he's not taking them.

375
00:15:44,960 --> 00:15:47,440
And I think based on what we saw,

376
00:15:47,440 --> 00:15:49,880
TV doesn't always show us some of the options

377
00:15:49,880 --> 00:15:52,600
that Josh has available to him that really are there.

378
00:15:52,600 --> 00:15:54,480
And then you start watching some of those replays

379
00:15:54,480 --> 00:15:55,480
when they start getting any frangles.

380
00:15:55,480 --> 00:15:59,480
You see people who are closer to him, but open.

381
00:15:59,480 --> 00:16:02,560
And is it really, he doesn't want to be totaling up

382
00:16:02,560 --> 00:16:04,840
smaller yardage, like is he not comfortable

383
00:16:04,840 --> 00:16:07,320
with those smaller gains, but you see the teams

384
00:16:07,320 --> 00:16:09,800
that are rolling the bills and they're taking it down

385
00:16:09,800 --> 00:16:14,280
the field one step at a time and defense aside,

386
00:16:14,280 --> 00:16:17,360
the reality is that's what's beating us,

387
00:16:17,360 --> 00:16:20,240
but we're not willing to try that against other teams.

388
00:16:20,240 --> 00:16:22,080
And I don't know what that's all about.

389
00:16:22,080 --> 00:16:24,200
Yeah, Josh did it for three weeks

390
00:16:24,200 --> 00:16:26,720
after that week one debacle against the Jets.

391
00:16:26,720 --> 00:16:29,080
And then all of a sudden, and again,

392
00:16:29,080 --> 00:16:31,000
this is where the Dorsey conversation

393
00:16:31,000 --> 00:16:34,720
gets really complicated because there are now prominent

394
00:16:34,720 --> 00:16:37,760
media figures that are saying that if the Buffalo Bills

395
00:16:37,760 --> 00:16:40,040
don't perform better offensively this game,

396
00:16:40,040 --> 00:16:41,880
it's time for the bills to potentially move on

397
00:16:41,880 --> 00:16:43,280
from Ken Dorsey.

398
00:16:43,280 --> 00:16:45,920
And Dorsey has his deficiencies,

399
00:16:45,920 --> 00:16:48,440
but it's not necessarily in scheme.

400
00:16:48,440 --> 00:16:50,200
He's scheming guys open.

401
00:16:50,200 --> 00:16:52,520
He's making some nice play calls.

402
00:16:52,520 --> 00:16:55,920
The problem with Dorsey is not Dorsey necessarily

403
00:16:55,920 --> 00:16:58,800
the schemer, it's Dorsey the play caller

404
00:16:58,800 --> 00:17:01,520
and Dorsey the coach, because he's having a hard time

405
00:17:01,520 --> 00:17:04,280
getting Josh to adjust to some of these tendencies.

406
00:17:04,280 --> 00:17:06,280
And then he's coaching away the wrong tendencies

407
00:17:06,280 --> 00:17:07,200
out of Josh.

408
00:17:07,200 --> 00:17:09,480
The first four games of the season,

409
00:17:09,480 --> 00:17:13,000
Josh was averaging 6.6 yards per carry,

410
00:17:13,000 --> 00:17:14,560
scripted and unscripted.

411
00:17:14,560 --> 00:17:18,840
That is now down to 3.2 and he's halved his rushing attempts

412
00:17:18,840 --> 00:17:22,320
over the last three games, which the Bills are one and two in,

413
00:17:22,320 --> 00:17:25,080
because they have all but scripted it out of the playbook

414
00:17:25,080 --> 00:17:27,560
and they've encouraged Josh to protect himself,

415
00:17:27,560 --> 00:17:31,920
which he should, but QBs prepared for contact on the run,

416
00:17:31,920 --> 00:17:33,000
rarely get hurt.

417
00:17:33,000 --> 00:17:35,880
It's QBs in the pocket, they get hurt by pressure

418
00:17:35,880 --> 00:17:38,880
they don't anticipate more often than not.

419
00:17:38,880 --> 00:17:42,240
But the organization wants the franchise QB

420
00:17:42,240 --> 00:17:43,920
to take care of himself.

421
00:17:43,920 --> 00:17:47,480
So Dorsey has scripted out and basically coached out of Josh

422
00:17:47,480 --> 00:17:49,840
this improvisational running that he has done

423
00:17:49,840 --> 00:17:51,720
that has gotten them so many chunk yards

424
00:17:51,720 --> 00:17:53,280
and so many first downs.

425
00:17:53,280 --> 00:17:56,200
But I think even beyond that, to your point,

426
00:17:56,200 --> 00:17:59,720
guys are getting schemed open, but Dorsey,

427
00:17:59,720 --> 00:18:01,640
where I have a problem with him as a play caller

428
00:18:01,640 --> 00:18:06,120
and a play sequencer is that he's calling great plays

429
00:18:06,120 --> 00:18:07,600
at the absolute wrong time.

430
00:18:07,600 --> 00:18:09,960
He's got these long developing route trees

431
00:18:09,960 --> 00:18:13,080
that are coming when there are two free rushers against Josh.

432
00:18:13,080 --> 00:18:15,400
Or the opposing team is bringing delayed pressure

433
00:18:15,400 --> 00:18:20,240
that Dorsey either doesn't call down as a hot route check

434
00:18:20,240 --> 00:18:22,840
in the pre-call play sets that he gives to Josh

435
00:18:22,840 --> 00:18:25,400
to debate from, or Josh isn't seeing it

436
00:18:25,400 --> 00:18:26,640
at the line of scrimmage.

437
00:18:26,640 --> 00:18:29,160
Either way, it's a deficiency in coaching

438
00:18:29,160 --> 00:18:30,880
because the coach is not coaching the player

439
00:18:30,880 --> 00:18:33,640
to recognize those things in film sessions,

440
00:18:33,640 --> 00:18:36,320
or he is not giving that player the option

441
00:18:36,320 --> 00:18:39,000
with some of his pre-play call options.

442
00:18:39,000 --> 00:18:43,440
He is radioing down to the QB.

443
00:18:43,440 --> 00:18:45,280
That's where Dorsey is a struggle.

444
00:18:45,280 --> 00:18:48,040
So he's got these cool schemes and these great play calls

445
00:18:48,040 --> 00:18:50,520
where you've got guys running open,

446
00:18:50,520 --> 00:18:53,480
but sometimes they're the wrong play call

447
00:18:53,480 --> 00:18:55,920
for the pressure packages the teams are bringing,

448
00:18:55,920 --> 00:18:59,000
which leads itself to the predictability argument

449
00:18:59,000 --> 00:19:01,440
that a lot of fans are making about Dorsey,

450
00:19:01,440 --> 00:19:03,280
which I think is accurate.

451
00:19:03,280 --> 00:19:05,000
I definitely think that's accurate,

452
00:19:05,000 --> 00:19:06,840
and that's something that's got to be addressed.

453
00:19:06,840 --> 00:19:10,080
But then Josh also deserves a little bit of blame

454
00:19:10,080 --> 00:19:11,160
in this too.

455
00:19:11,160 --> 00:19:13,200
You brought up like his inability

456
00:19:13,200 --> 00:19:15,120
to take the check down sometimes.

457
00:19:15,120 --> 00:19:17,640
And when Josh has gone through his roughest patches,

458
00:19:17,640 --> 00:19:20,960
we've seen that case in point in that Patriots game,

459
00:19:20,960 --> 00:19:23,240
very first flip and play of the game,

460
00:19:23,240 --> 00:19:24,920
and I called this one too.

461
00:19:24,920 --> 00:19:27,000
Me and JJ in the pre-game for the pass game,

462
00:19:27,000 --> 00:19:28,840
were like, Belichick is gonna do some weird shit

463
00:19:28,840 --> 00:19:29,680
in this game.

464
00:19:29,680 --> 00:19:31,440
He's gonna roll out four safeties.

465
00:19:31,440 --> 00:19:35,160
He's gonna have Jabril Peppers playing out in the flat,

466
00:19:35,160 --> 00:19:36,880
bumping a lot of our wide receivers

467
00:19:36,880 --> 00:19:38,640
or bumping a lot of guys in the box,

468
00:19:38,640 --> 00:19:41,080
and then just hovering there to bait Josh.

469
00:19:41,080 --> 00:19:44,400
First play of the game, Dalton Kincaid,

470
00:19:44,400 --> 00:19:47,640
seven yards, cut, stop, wide open.

471
00:19:47,640 --> 00:19:52,360
No one, nine yards within reach of that guy.

472
00:19:52,360 --> 00:19:55,040
Wide open for a seven yard gain on first down.

473
00:19:55,040 --> 00:19:57,280
Nope, Josh takes it to the boundary

474
00:19:57,280 --> 00:19:59,280
where Peppers is baiting him to throw it.

475
00:19:59,280 --> 00:20:01,760
Boom, pick, first play of the game, right?

476
00:20:01,760 --> 00:20:04,040
So yes, some of it is Dorsey,

477
00:20:04,040 --> 00:20:06,640
and Dorsey deserves a huge chunk of the blame

478
00:20:06,640 --> 00:20:11,000
for failing to change his play call sequencing

479
00:20:11,000 --> 00:20:13,640
when he sees what opposing defenses are doing,

480
00:20:13,640 --> 00:20:15,200
and it lends itself to predictability

481
00:20:15,200 --> 00:20:16,480
and playing into their hands.

482
00:20:16,480 --> 00:20:19,480
But Josh also needs to make better decisions too

483
00:20:19,480 --> 00:20:21,240
and take what is available.

484
00:20:21,240 --> 00:20:26,240
Yeah, and I hesitate to say this

485
00:20:27,200 --> 00:20:29,320
because if I'm wrong, I don't wanna sound like an idiot,

486
00:20:29,320 --> 00:20:30,640
but I'm gonna say it.

487
00:20:30,640 --> 00:20:32,320
Hang on, hang on, hang on.

488
00:20:32,320 --> 00:20:34,200
You're on Buffalo bread, my friend.

489
00:20:34,200 --> 00:20:37,320
People come for the idiocy.

490
00:20:37,320 --> 00:20:40,600
They don't come for like sound game analysis.

491
00:20:40,600 --> 00:20:42,880
No, me and JJ joke, us being wrong

492
00:20:42,880 --> 00:20:44,880
is a feature of this, not a bug.

493
00:20:44,880 --> 00:20:47,920
So say what you wanna say, this is a safe space.

494
00:20:47,920 --> 00:20:50,200
Yeah, I'm just anxious about having a James Cook performance

495
00:20:50,200 --> 00:20:52,160
and having my first appearance be a fumble,

496
00:20:52,160 --> 00:20:57,160
but I think last season, I said to a lot of people,

497
00:20:58,520 --> 00:21:02,680
I am not convinced that Josh's elbow is okay.

498
00:21:02,680 --> 00:21:04,280
You could see it and the way he played,

499
00:21:04,280 --> 00:21:06,120
everything changed, what have you.

500
00:21:06,120 --> 00:21:10,840
And the language we were hearing last season

501
00:21:10,840 --> 00:21:12,680
of downplaying, it's fine, don't worry about it,

502
00:21:12,680 --> 00:21:15,480
is a lot of what we're hearing now about the shoulder.

503
00:21:15,480 --> 00:21:18,360
And I'm not convinced that he's toast by any means.

504
00:21:18,360 --> 00:21:19,200
Like don't get me wrong,

505
00:21:19,200 --> 00:21:21,440
I'm not thinking this is as bad as it was,

506
00:21:21,440 --> 00:21:25,160
but I am anxious about a Josh Allen

507
00:21:25,160 --> 00:21:26,520
that starts reasserting himself

508
00:21:26,520 --> 00:21:29,280
by blasting through the defensive line

509
00:21:29,280 --> 00:21:31,880
and just gets it hit just wrong.

510
00:21:31,880 --> 00:21:34,200
And then now we're looking at, can he play next game?

511
00:21:34,200 --> 00:21:37,720
Like it's, I think this team is very close

512
00:21:37,720 --> 00:21:40,320
to the edge of success in this season right now.

513
00:21:40,320 --> 00:21:42,320
I'm not gonna count them out by any means.

514
00:21:42,320 --> 00:21:43,640
I don't think they're in bad shape,

515
00:21:43,640 --> 00:21:46,680
but there are a couple more season ending injuries

516
00:21:46,680 --> 00:21:49,480
away from ending their season period.

517
00:21:49,480 --> 00:21:51,920
And I always have worried since Josh Allen

518
00:21:51,920 --> 00:21:52,760
has come on to this team

519
00:21:52,760 --> 00:21:55,040
and we've really seen him develop as this bigger guy

520
00:21:55,040 --> 00:21:59,600
who kind of uses his weight and his ability,

521
00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:01,240
almost like Ben Routhelsberger in that way

522
00:22:01,240 --> 00:22:04,740
of just like forcing himself down the field when need be.

523
00:22:05,840 --> 00:22:08,680
It's those, okay, his shoulder mostly fine,

524
00:22:08,680 --> 00:22:10,400
he's downplaying it, the team's downplaying it,

525
00:22:10,400 --> 00:22:11,360
everybody's saying it's fine,

526
00:22:11,360 --> 00:22:14,080
but it's just how many compounding injuries like that

527
00:22:14,080 --> 00:22:16,880
can you get before you actually end your season.

528
00:22:16,880 --> 00:22:19,040
So that's always been my concern with Josh

529
00:22:19,040 --> 00:22:19,880
and the way that he plays.

530
00:22:19,880 --> 00:22:21,120
And I think you're right,

531
00:22:21,120 --> 00:22:24,560
we are seeing a very different Josh Allen approach

532
00:22:24,560 --> 00:22:27,400
in the last few games and the way that Dorsey's using him.

533
00:22:27,400 --> 00:22:29,260
And you can see, mind you,

534
00:22:29,260 --> 00:22:30,680
I think there's a lot of drama to this

535
00:22:30,680 --> 00:22:34,000
when they're scanning over the players in the sidelines.

536
00:22:34,000 --> 00:22:37,520
I think half the time like ESPN is just hoping to God

537
00:22:37,520 --> 00:22:39,200
that Stefan Diggs has a bad face on

538
00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:40,400
so they can make a whole story about

539
00:22:40,400 --> 00:22:41,720
how Stefan Diggs is leaving the building.

540
00:22:41,720 --> 00:22:42,560
It's so ridiculous.

541
00:22:42,560 --> 00:22:45,680
Just national media does not understand Diggs at all.

542
00:22:45,680 --> 00:22:48,520
Yeah, he posted turn the page I think on Twitter

543
00:22:48,520 --> 00:22:49,880
earlier this week and everyone's like,

544
00:22:49,880 --> 00:22:51,840
he's leaving the team, it's like, all right.

545
00:22:51,840 --> 00:22:56,680
But I think that you can see frustration on the bench.

546
00:22:56,680 --> 00:22:58,680
I mean, you can see these folks are not happy

547
00:22:58,680 --> 00:23:00,040
about what's happening,

548
00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:02,880
but we're not seeing a lot of change up in the game plan

549
00:23:02,880 --> 00:23:04,240
and there's gotta be,

550
00:23:04,240 --> 00:23:06,160
some things gotta be different

551
00:23:06,160 --> 00:23:09,520
to expect different results against some of these teams.

552
00:23:09,520 --> 00:23:10,600
Yeah, I agree with you.

553
00:23:10,600 --> 00:23:11,880
And I think one of the things

554
00:23:11,880 --> 00:23:15,440
that the, and this kind of gets to some of my points, right?

555
00:23:15,440 --> 00:23:18,560
One of the things I think that I gotta see happen on offense

556
00:23:18,560 --> 00:23:21,960
is I've gotta see Dorsey hit the easy button.

557
00:23:21,960 --> 00:23:24,920
And what I mean by that is there are plays

558
00:23:24,920 --> 00:23:27,600
in the playbook that are easy completions.

559
00:23:27,600 --> 00:23:30,200
We saw them in weeks two, three and four

560
00:23:30,200 --> 00:23:33,320
for Josh and this offense to get into a rhythm

561
00:23:33,320 --> 00:23:36,480
that are also great delayed pressure beaters,

562
00:23:36,480 --> 00:23:38,000
great Blitz beaters.

563
00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:41,520
We saw the Patriots blitz Josh and put him under duress.

564
00:23:41,520 --> 00:23:43,760
It felt like every single play,

565
00:23:43,760 --> 00:23:46,240
he was trying to throw off platform.

566
00:23:46,240 --> 00:23:49,840
And the Tampa Bay Buccaneers can do a lot of the things

567
00:23:49,840 --> 00:23:52,920
that the Patriots could do, that the Giants can do,

568
00:23:52,920 --> 00:23:56,640
and that the Jacksonville Jaguars can do

569
00:23:56,640 --> 00:24:00,000
in terms of locking down some of the limited weapons

570
00:24:00,000 --> 00:24:01,720
on Buffalo's offense,

571
00:24:01,720 --> 00:24:05,320
bracket Stefan Diggs with a safety over the top and a DB,

572
00:24:05,320 --> 00:24:07,600
and then bring some of those delayed pressure looks

573
00:24:07,600 --> 00:24:11,120
that Josh has had a really hard time diagnosing

574
00:24:11,120 --> 00:24:14,440
at the line of scrimmage and that Dorsey has been really late

575
00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:15,280
to adjust to.

576
00:24:15,280 --> 00:24:16,480
I think we're gonna see a lot of those.

577
00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:18,080
So what's the counter to that?

578
00:24:18,080 --> 00:24:20,520
Josh getting the ball out quickly.

579
00:24:20,520 --> 00:24:22,000
So I'm gonna give you some numbers, Justin.

580
00:24:22,000 --> 00:24:22,960
I don't know if you know this about me,

581
00:24:22,960 --> 00:24:25,160
but I'm the numbers guy here, okay?

582
00:24:25,160 --> 00:24:27,480
But Josh Allen this season,

583
00:24:27,480 --> 00:24:31,920
when getting rid of the ball in 2.5 seconds or less

584
00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:35,440
has a 77% completion rate.

585
00:24:35,440 --> 00:24:40,440
He also only has two INTs and eight of his 15 TDs have come

586
00:24:42,400 --> 00:24:46,280
when getting rid of the ball with that level of quickness

587
00:24:46,280 --> 00:24:50,320
and his QB rating skyrockets to almost 103.

588
00:24:50,320 --> 00:24:52,680
When Josh is made to hang on to the ball,

589
00:24:52,680 --> 00:24:54,200
and this seems counterintuitive

590
00:24:54,200 --> 00:24:57,240
because he's such a good improvised passer

591
00:24:57,240 --> 00:24:59,160
and so good off platform,

592
00:24:59,160 --> 00:25:01,880
but when he is made to hang on to the ball

593
00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:04,960
for over 2.5 seconds like the Patriots made him do

594
00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:07,440
for a majority of that game last week,

595
00:25:07,440 --> 00:25:09,400
he becomes mistake prone Josh

596
00:25:09,400 --> 00:25:11,200
and he becomes predictable Josh.

597
00:25:11,200 --> 00:25:13,720
So he's thrown five of his seven INTs

598
00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:16,720
when holding onto the ball for more than 2.5 seconds.

599
00:25:16,720 --> 00:25:18,200
But more importantly to me,

600
00:25:18,200 --> 00:25:21,440
when we talk about sustaining drives with the easy stuff,

601
00:25:21,440 --> 00:25:26,440
his completion percentage goes from 77 to 62%,

602
00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:29,480
a 15% decline.

603
00:25:29,480 --> 00:25:33,960
When you've got such a night and day composition of data

604
00:25:33,960 --> 00:25:35,560
that tells you your QB,

605
00:25:35,560 --> 00:25:38,640
while he may be comfortable and may be effective

606
00:25:38,640 --> 00:25:41,080
at hanging those big scramble out to the right,

607
00:25:41,080 --> 00:25:43,440
launch it down to digs down the field plays,

608
00:25:44,480 --> 00:25:47,160
the data is telling us in his performance

609
00:25:47,160 --> 00:25:50,440
that if Dorsey can scheme up some of these quick Blitzbeaters

610
00:25:50,440 --> 00:25:53,200
to keep the defense honest early in the game

611
00:25:53,200 --> 00:25:56,120
and take them out of their delayed pressure game plan,

612
00:25:56,120 --> 00:25:58,720
they've got a recipe for success with Josh.

613
00:25:58,720 --> 00:26:01,360
Then this gets the team into the rhythm that McDermott wants

614
00:26:01,360 --> 00:26:03,760
and it opens up a whole host of other things

615
00:26:03,760 --> 00:26:05,840
because that means you're getting good chunk yardage

616
00:26:05,840 --> 00:26:06,800
on first down.

617
00:26:06,800 --> 00:26:10,680
And Josh is one of the best throwing QBs in the league

618
00:26:10,680 --> 00:26:11,640
on first down.

619
00:26:11,640 --> 00:26:16,140
He's averaging right now about six yards per attempt,

620
00:26:16,960 --> 00:26:19,200
excuse me, on his first down throws

621
00:26:19,200 --> 00:26:20,760
and he completes his first down throws

622
00:26:20,760 --> 00:26:23,240
at about 75% of the time.

623
00:26:23,240 --> 00:26:25,000
You can get to second and short,

624
00:26:25,000 --> 00:26:26,400
that opens up the run game,

625
00:26:26,400 --> 00:26:28,760
that opens up the Josh Allen scripted run game,

626
00:26:28,760 --> 00:26:30,480
it opens up the short passing game,

627
00:26:30,480 --> 00:26:34,720
or it's a great spot to take a shot down field

628
00:26:34,720 --> 00:26:36,400
if you can get some of these teams

629
00:26:36,400 --> 00:26:38,760
and their second down coverage against the Bills

630
00:26:38,760 --> 00:26:41,120
out of this too high shell that they've been playing.

631
00:26:41,120 --> 00:26:45,360
So for me, it all starts with Allen getting the ball out quick.

632
00:26:45,360 --> 00:26:48,920
If his time to throw, I would say is 2.7 seconds

633
00:26:48,920 --> 00:26:50,840
or less in this game,

634
00:26:50,840 --> 00:26:53,240
that means the Bills are being successful

635
00:26:53,240 --> 00:26:56,960
at mitigating any delayed pressure or Blitz packages

636
00:26:56,960 --> 00:26:59,920
that this Todd Boles coached Tampa Bay Buccaneers team

637
00:26:59,920 --> 00:27:02,240
was gonna roll out there and Boles loves to blitz.

638
00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:04,680
They're gonna blitz in this game without a doubt.

639
00:27:04,680 --> 00:27:06,040
Yeah.

640
00:27:06,040 --> 00:27:08,880
So that's number, that is my first point

641
00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:10,040
that I wanna get to.

642
00:27:10,040 --> 00:27:11,800
My second point, Justin,

643
00:27:11,800 --> 00:27:13,440
it's on the defensive side of the ball.

644
00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:14,800
Now we know there's a lot of injuries

645
00:27:14,800 --> 00:27:16,200
on the defensive side of the ball.

646
00:27:16,200 --> 00:27:18,800
There's not much that the team can do here for that

647
00:27:18,800 --> 00:27:21,080
and they're going up against some decent weapons.

648
00:27:21,080 --> 00:27:25,560
Again, Mayfield is a limited QB, but so is Mac Jones

649
00:27:25,560 --> 00:27:28,920
and the Patriots were able to successfully scheme their way

650
00:27:28,920 --> 00:27:32,440
into making Mac Jones basically look like Tom Brady,

651
00:27:33,360 --> 00:27:37,120
including up to a game winning drive in the fourth quarter.

652
00:27:37,120 --> 00:27:41,040
So while the scheming offensively

653
00:27:41,040 --> 00:27:43,160
for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers has not been

654
00:27:43,160 --> 00:27:46,200
to that level of efficacy, we are a week to weekly,

655
00:27:46,200 --> 00:27:47,520
again, it's a short turnaround

656
00:27:47,520 --> 00:27:48,960
and the Bills may not be prepared

657
00:27:48,960 --> 00:27:50,480
for whatever they're gonna roll out there.

658
00:27:50,480 --> 00:27:52,680
You've gotta worry about Mike Evans.

659
00:27:52,680 --> 00:27:54,400
You've gotta worry about some other weapons

660
00:27:54,400 --> 00:27:56,920
that this Tampa Bay Buccaneers team has.

661
00:27:56,920 --> 00:27:59,440
For me, you're not getting Matt Milano back.

662
00:27:59,440 --> 00:28:01,120
You might get out at Oliver back.

663
00:28:01,120 --> 00:28:03,440
He's been limited in practice with his injury,

664
00:28:03,440 --> 00:28:04,720
but you're not gonna get Trey White

665
00:28:04,720 --> 00:28:06,880
and some of these other pieces back.

666
00:28:06,880 --> 00:28:08,600
To me, the second key in this

667
00:28:08,600 --> 00:28:10,920
is you've gotta roll with speed.

668
00:28:10,920 --> 00:28:15,200
You've gotta overwhelm the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense

669
00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:17,920
with some of these young speed pieces

670
00:28:17,920 --> 00:28:19,840
like Tarell Bernard, Dorian Williams,

671
00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:23,080
and I'm gonna say it, Bills Mafia, Kayri Lee Elam.

672
00:28:23,080 --> 00:28:26,360
I get he only played special team snaps against the Patriots

673
00:28:26,360 --> 00:28:29,040
because the Bills are worried about him getting exposed.

674
00:28:29,040 --> 00:28:31,920
He played better towards the end of that Giants game

675
00:28:31,920 --> 00:28:34,640
and there is no one in that DB room

676
00:28:34,640 --> 00:28:38,120
with the raw speed and athleticism that Elam has.

677
00:28:38,120 --> 00:28:39,560
More often than not,

678
00:28:39,560 --> 00:28:42,320
if you can roll out better athletes, you're gonna win

679
00:28:42,320 --> 00:28:44,400
because here's the thing, Justin.

680
00:28:44,400 --> 00:28:47,600
We took out Dorian Williams from that Patriots game

681
00:28:47,600 --> 00:28:49,760
because Mac Jones was doing a good job

682
00:28:49,760 --> 00:28:51,840
taking advantage of his aggressiveness.

683
00:28:51,840 --> 00:28:55,040
Baker Mayfield has that same capability

684
00:28:55,040 --> 00:28:56,480
to look him off with his eyes

685
00:28:56,480 --> 00:28:58,520
or fool him with his eyes and coverage.

686
00:28:58,520 --> 00:29:00,800
They've got the ability in the run game in Tampa Bay

687
00:29:00,800 --> 00:29:02,560
to do some of those things as well

688
00:29:02,560 --> 00:29:05,880
with an imperfect but pretty stout offensive line.

689
00:29:05,880 --> 00:29:08,360
McDermott kowtowed to that

690
00:29:08,360 --> 00:29:10,200
and he took Williams out of the game

691
00:29:10,200 --> 00:29:11,520
and then didn't even play Elam.

692
00:29:11,520 --> 00:29:13,080
But what does that leave us with?

693
00:29:13,080 --> 00:29:15,400
That leaves us with Tarell Dodson

694
00:29:15,400 --> 00:29:18,160
who is okay in run stopping

695
00:29:18,160 --> 00:29:19,800
and substandard in past coverage,

696
00:29:19,800 --> 00:29:22,160
which is what the Tampa Bay Buccaneers want to do

697
00:29:22,160 --> 00:29:24,040
to open up the middle of the field.

698
00:29:24,040 --> 00:29:26,360
And Kyer Elam not being out there

699
00:29:26,360 --> 00:29:27,920
means Dame Jackson is playing.

700
00:29:27,920 --> 00:29:29,520
And we love Dame Jackson,

701
00:29:29,520 --> 00:29:32,440
but he is an athletically limited player,

702
00:29:32,440 --> 00:29:34,120
which is something that we know about.

703
00:29:34,120 --> 00:29:36,040
We know what happens.

704
00:29:36,040 --> 00:29:37,280
We know what happens.

705
00:29:37,280 --> 00:29:39,920
If Jackson and Dodson are out there,

706
00:29:39,920 --> 00:29:42,000
they become vulnerabilities.

707
00:29:42,000 --> 00:29:43,840
We don't know with any certainty

708
00:29:43,840 --> 00:29:46,240
because of how young in their developmental arc

709
00:29:46,240 --> 00:29:49,560
these players are and Williams and Elam,

710
00:29:49,560 --> 00:29:51,160
you've got to put them out there.

711
00:29:51,160 --> 00:29:53,320
Is there gonna be a wider range of variants

712
00:29:53,320 --> 00:29:54,160
in their performance?

713
00:29:54,160 --> 00:29:55,320
Absolutely.

714
00:29:55,320 --> 00:29:58,440
Dodson and Jackson, they bring you a floor for sure,

715
00:29:58,440 --> 00:30:01,120
but they don't bring you the ceiling that these guys do.

716
00:30:01,120 --> 00:30:02,480
And that's what you're gonna need

717
00:30:02,480 --> 00:30:04,560
for this defense to get back on track.

718
00:30:04,560 --> 00:30:08,520
High ceiling splash plays that expose the topic,

719
00:30:08,520 --> 00:30:10,720
that take advantage of toxic differential

720
00:30:10,720 --> 00:30:13,680
for the Buffalo Bills and put them in a position

721
00:30:13,680 --> 00:30:16,440
to make some really big splash plays

722
00:30:16,440 --> 00:30:19,600
and turn the ball over back to this Bills defense.

723
00:30:19,600 --> 00:30:22,600
So for me, the second key is trust the young guys.

724
00:30:22,600 --> 00:30:24,960
They're gonna struggle, especially Elam,

725
00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:26,760
but you gotta let them take their lumps

726
00:30:26,760 --> 00:30:28,960
because Trey White's not coming back anytime soon

727
00:30:28,960 --> 00:30:31,880
and you know who Dane Jackson is.

728
00:30:31,880 --> 00:30:34,080
Matt Milano's not coming back anytime soon

729
00:30:34,080 --> 00:30:35,960
and you know who Tyrell Dodson is.

730
00:30:35,960 --> 00:30:37,920
You've gotta let these young guys take their lumps

731
00:30:37,920 --> 00:30:40,400
so that they're ready for the murderers row

732
00:30:40,400 --> 00:30:42,760
that the schedule turns into at the end of the season.

733
00:30:42,760 --> 00:30:43,880
If you can't trust them

734
00:30:43,880 --> 00:30:46,160
against a limited Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense,

735
00:30:46,160 --> 00:30:47,960
I don't know when you can trust them.

736
00:30:47,960 --> 00:30:51,400
So now is the time, let the young Bucs play.

737
00:30:51,400 --> 00:30:53,400
When you said, you know, let the young Bucs play.

738
00:30:53,400 --> 00:30:55,120
I mean, the elephant in the room,

739
00:30:55,120 --> 00:30:56,600
people got so excited about Von Miller

740
00:30:56,600 --> 00:30:57,480
coming over to the Bills

741
00:30:57,480 --> 00:30:59,040
and now we're looking at the season,

742
00:30:59,040 --> 00:31:02,920
six naps against the Patriots, man, it's 34 years old, right?

743
00:31:02,920 --> 00:31:05,800
Like 34 years old.

744
00:31:05,800 --> 00:31:07,840
You just don't recover the same way.

745
00:31:07,840 --> 00:31:12,840
And I don't understand one of my tilt out four things

746
00:31:13,160 --> 00:31:15,920
that I was gonna talk about is, you know,

747
00:31:15,920 --> 00:31:18,400
if he's healthy, why isn't he playing?

748
00:31:18,400 --> 00:31:20,040
Why are we dressing him and rushing him back

749
00:31:20,040 --> 00:31:20,920
if he's not ready?

750
00:31:20,920 --> 00:31:24,480
Like I know our defense is hurting.

751
00:31:24,480 --> 00:31:27,800
I mean, you've got so many people that are sitting it out,

752
00:31:27,800 --> 00:31:31,480
but long-term scheme, I mean, you've gotta look at,

753
00:31:31,480 --> 00:31:33,880
do you hold these players in reserve

754
00:31:33,880 --> 00:31:37,520
and wait until the moments where we really need them the most?

755
00:31:37,520 --> 00:31:39,320
I just, I don't know what's going on with Von Miller.

756
00:31:39,320 --> 00:31:40,600
I'm very anxious about that.

757
00:31:40,600 --> 00:31:43,040
I'm confident he will come back and be playing,

758
00:31:43,040 --> 00:31:45,080
but talking about a player,

759
00:31:45,080 --> 00:31:47,240
he had eight sacks over 11 games last season.

760
00:31:47,240 --> 00:31:50,600
Like he was a major part of what made our team, our team.

761
00:31:50,600 --> 00:31:53,840
He still led the team in sacks after he got injured.

762
00:31:53,840 --> 00:31:56,280
Exactly, and losing him to me

763
00:31:56,280 --> 00:31:59,440
is one of the biggest setbacks we saw last season.

764
00:31:59,440 --> 00:32:02,800
I mean, I'm not gonna replay last season,

765
00:32:02,800 --> 00:32:05,920
but like he's a major part of that defense.

766
00:32:05,920 --> 00:32:10,200
And the reason that we have to really listen

767
00:32:10,200 --> 00:32:13,920
to what you're saying is we can't rely on a 34 year old

768
00:32:13,920 --> 00:32:16,680
who's on this limited injury base,

769
00:32:16,680 --> 00:32:19,240
can't play as much as he should be able to play.

770
00:32:19,240 --> 00:32:21,080
We don't know if he is gonna come back

771
00:32:21,080 --> 00:32:24,240
and be able to output the same way he did pre-injury, right?

772
00:32:24,240 --> 00:32:25,480
Like we just haven't seen it.

773
00:32:25,480 --> 00:32:28,280
And I'm not confident that we'll be able to see all that,

774
00:32:28,280 --> 00:32:30,920
especially without the other parts of the defense

775
00:32:30,920 --> 00:32:33,160
in place that he had last season.

776
00:32:33,160 --> 00:32:34,320
Correct, correct.

777
00:32:34,320 --> 00:32:37,080
So you gotta start to trust some of these younger guys.

778
00:32:37,080 --> 00:32:41,040
And I think they're working Von Miller back slowly.

779
00:32:41,040 --> 00:32:45,360
And I think once Von, if, you know, these ACL injuries,

780
00:32:45,360 --> 00:32:47,040
we saw with Trey White last year,

781
00:32:47,040 --> 00:32:49,600
it took him a while to look like himself again.

782
00:32:49,600 --> 00:32:53,480
And he even still needed the full off season after last year

783
00:32:53,480 --> 00:32:55,280
to really fully recover.

784
00:32:56,600 --> 00:32:59,960
I think the hope is, especially with Jones being out,

785
00:32:59,960 --> 00:33:02,640
the hope is that Miller gets to a point

786
00:33:02,640 --> 00:33:04,240
where he's healthy enough to play

787
00:33:04,240 --> 00:33:05,760
on some of these closeout drives.

788
00:33:05,760 --> 00:33:06,600
Cause that's what Miller is.

789
00:33:06,600 --> 00:33:08,120
Miller is a closer.

790
00:33:08,120 --> 00:33:10,160
And I said this when we signed him, I'm like,

791
00:33:10,160 --> 00:33:12,400
I don't think anyone wants to say it,

792
00:33:12,400 --> 00:33:14,600
but by the end of this contract,

793
00:33:14,600 --> 00:33:18,040
Von Miller is very likely gonna be a third down specialist.

794
00:33:18,040 --> 00:33:19,760
But here's what you can do

795
00:33:19,760 --> 00:33:22,080
if Miller is healthy enough to do that.

796
00:33:22,080 --> 00:33:25,240
You can line up Greg Rousseau at the three tech

797
00:33:25,240 --> 00:33:28,320
next to Ed Oliver, as long as Ed Oliver is healthy.

798
00:33:28,320 --> 00:33:31,200
You put Leonard Floyd next to Greg Rousseau,

799
00:33:31,200 --> 00:33:33,400
and then you've got Von Miller on the other side

800
00:33:33,400 --> 00:33:34,560
next to Ed Oliver.

801
00:33:34,560 --> 00:33:38,480
And that is your NASCAR pass rush closing package

802
00:33:38,480 --> 00:33:40,760
on third and passing situations.

803
00:33:40,760 --> 00:33:43,480
And at the end of the game to shut the other team down.

804
00:33:43,480 --> 00:33:46,680
It doesn't fully make up for the lack of run stopping ability

805
00:33:46,680 --> 00:33:48,600
that we lose with the Quan Jones,

806
00:33:48,600 --> 00:33:51,240
but the hope is that in those third and long situations,

807
00:33:51,240 --> 00:33:52,920
and when you're closing out a game,

808
00:33:52,920 --> 00:33:55,160
teams are looking to pass the ball anyway.

809
00:33:55,160 --> 00:33:57,000
So they're slowly working Miller back,

810
00:33:57,000 --> 00:33:59,720
but I ultimately think that's the schematic dream

811
00:33:59,720 --> 00:34:02,440
for McDermott is to have those four guys lined up

812
00:34:02,440 --> 00:34:04,960
as your defensive front to close out games

813
00:34:04,960 --> 00:34:06,520
and put the other QB down.

814
00:34:06,520 --> 00:34:10,360
So they're working Miller slowly, slowly, slowly up to that.

815
00:34:10,360 --> 00:34:11,720
It remains to be seen

816
00:34:11,720 --> 00:34:15,080
if he's gonna be able to recover enough to have an impact.

817
00:34:15,080 --> 00:34:17,480
I mean, dude, like you said,

818
00:34:17,480 --> 00:34:19,840
six total snaps didn't play the second half at all.

819
00:34:19,840 --> 00:34:21,560
They really could have used Von Miller

820
00:34:21,560 --> 00:34:24,680
on that closeout drive where Mac Jones basically marched them

821
00:34:24,680 --> 00:34:27,440
down the field with Dinkin Dunks and screenplays.

822
00:34:27,440 --> 00:34:30,040
They really could have used their closer in that moment,

823
00:34:30,040 --> 00:34:32,000
but Miller is just, he's just not ready.

824
00:34:32,000 --> 00:34:33,480
He's not fully recovered yet.

825
00:34:33,480 --> 00:34:35,280
So they got to rely on some of these younger guys

826
00:34:35,280 --> 00:34:36,440
until then and give them a shot.

827
00:34:36,440 --> 00:34:38,080
Rousseau needs to step up.

828
00:34:38,080 --> 00:34:40,640
Hopefully Oliver can be healthy, but yeah, man,

829
00:34:40,640 --> 00:34:42,600
AJ Appanazza needs to continue to ball

830
00:34:42,600 --> 00:34:44,400
out of his mind for sure.

831
00:34:44,400 --> 00:34:45,840
Absolutely, yeah.

832
00:34:45,840 --> 00:34:49,440
So yeah, man, good takes, strong takes.

833
00:34:49,440 --> 00:34:52,440
So for me, my couple of points here

834
00:34:52,440 --> 00:34:55,520
is let the young Bucks play against the Bucks on defense.

835
00:34:55,520 --> 00:34:57,440
Yes, you're gonna get some volatility.

836
00:34:57,440 --> 00:34:58,600
Deal with the volatility

837
00:34:58,600 --> 00:35:01,080
because those guys give you the higher ceiling

838
00:35:01,080 --> 00:35:03,560
in this injury environment on defense.

839
00:35:03,560 --> 00:35:06,080
Point number two for me, easy button.

840
00:35:06,080 --> 00:35:08,760
Ken Dorsey needs to scheme up some stuff

841
00:35:08,760 --> 00:35:11,200
to get the ball out of Josh's hands.

842
00:35:11,200 --> 00:35:14,840
Assume that teams are gonna be blitzing Josh again,

843
00:35:14,840 --> 00:35:17,320
because while some people think you still can't blitz Josh,

844
00:35:17,320 --> 00:35:19,320
you can definitely blitz this offensive line

845
00:35:19,320 --> 00:35:21,520
and that will as a byproduct,

846
00:35:21,520 --> 00:35:23,080
make some problems for Josh.

847
00:35:23,080 --> 00:35:23,920
Absolutely.

848
00:35:23,920 --> 00:35:25,080
Hit the easy button.

849
00:35:25,080 --> 00:35:29,120
I wanna see 2.7 seconds and under for Josh's time to throw.

850
00:35:29,120 --> 00:35:31,200
And I wanna see some easy stuff down the field

851
00:35:31,200 --> 00:35:32,680
to get this team in rhythm

852
00:35:32,680 --> 00:35:34,640
and open up things in the run game.

853
00:35:34,640 --> 00:35:36,600
For you, sir, recap for us again.

854
00:35:36,600 --> 00:35:37,800
What are your main points here?

855
00:35:37,800 --> 00:35:39,120
It's the turnover battle.

856
00:35:39,120 --> 00:35:40,440
It's winning in the run game

857
00:35:40,440 --> 00:35:42,320
to open things up in the play action

858
00:35:42,320 --> 00:35:44,440
and then getting some play calling consistency

859
00:35:44,440 --> 00:35:46,120
that better involves Dalton Kincaid.

860
00:35:46,120 --> 00:35:46,960
Am I right?

861
00:35:46,960 --> 00:35:48,040
Yeah, absolutely.

862
00:35:48,040 --> 00:35:48,880
Good stuff.

863
00:35:48,880 --> 00:35:50,440
And let James Cook cook.

864
00:35:50,440 --> 00:35:51,520
Let him cook, man.

865
00:35:51,520 --> 00:35:55,080
If Latavius Murray, and I love Latavius Murray,

866
00:35:55,080 --> 00:35:57,280
but he's a journeyman running back,

867
00:35:57,280 --> 00:36:00,120
if that dude gets another start over James Cook,

868
00:36:00,120 --> 00:36:01,600
I'm gonna lose my mind.

869
00:36:01,600 --> 00:36:05,120
James Cook is the guy, let him be the guy,

870
00:36:05,120 --> 00:36:06,920
because outside of Stefan Diggs,

871
00:36:06,920 --> 00:36:10,080
he is your next most dynamic weapon

872
00:36:10,080 --> 00:36:12,400
that is not Josh Allen on that offense.

873
00:36:12,400 --> 00:36:14,000
Why he is not starting the game

874
00:36:14,000 --> 00:36:16,640
and getting the majority of the Snapshare is beyond me.

875
00:36:16,640 --> 00:36:18,160
But stop playing games.

876
00:36:18,160 --> 00:36:20,400
And that feels like a McDermott thing.

877
00:36:20,400 --> 00:36:22,960
Like McDermott wasn't happy with the way Cook was hitting

878
00:36:22,960 --> 00:36:26,080
holes, so he tried to put in Latavius Murray

879
00:36:26,080 --> 00:36:28,680
as a defensive coach would to get some more physicality

880
00:36:28,680 --> 00:36:29,600
in the game.

881
00:36:29,600 --> 00:36:31,800
James Cook is way more dynamic.

882
00:36:31,800 --> 00:36:32,880
That's your dude.

883
00:36:32,880 --> 00:36:35,040
You let that dude cook, my friend.

884
00:36:35,040 --> 00:36:36,320
Let him cook.

885
00:36:36,320 --> 00:36:37,360
I love Latavius Murray.

886
00:36:37,360 --> 00:36:39,280
This is not Latavius Murray Slander,

887
00:36:39,280 --> 00:36:41,160
but you can't start hurry and play sick cook.

888
00:36:41,160 --> 00:36:43,560
Let Cook freaking play is ridiculous to play around

889
00:36:43,560 --> 00:36:47,520
like this when the team's on the verge of going four and four

890
00:36:47,520 --> 00:36:49,360
in their first eight games, having Cincinnati,

891
00:36:49,360 --> 00:36:52,680
stop playing games, McD, love you, but stop playing games.

892
00:36:52,680 --> 00:36:53,600
All right.

893
00:36:53,600 --> 00:36:56,400
So Justin, we now move on to prediction sure to go wrong,

894
00:36:56,400 --> 00:36:58,880
which is what people, like I said, come for.

895
00:36:58,880 --> 00:37:01,160
These are predictions that JJ and I will make

896
00:37:01,160 --> 00:37:04,240
that almost assuredly go wrong game to game.

897
00:37:04,240 --> 00:37:06,400
So we always start with our score prediction.

898
00:37:06,400 --> 00:37:09,200
So as the honored guest here, I will let you go first.

899
00:37:09,200 --> 00:37:11,680
Where does the score for this game land for you?

900
00:37:12,600 --> 00:37:17,600
Yeah, so I'm looking Bill's 27, Buck and NieR's 10.

901
00:37:19,120 --> 00:37:19,960
Damn.

902
00:37:19,960 --> 00:37:23,560
In true Bill's fashion, I think that,

903
00:37:24,600 --> 00:37:27,280
so the big talk right now is Josh Allen

904
00:37:27,280 --> 00:37:29,320
is four touchdowns away from 200.

905
00:37:29,320 --> 00:37:32,720
And so I just have this feeling in my heart of hearts

906
00:37:32,720 --> 00:37:35,840
that the, of course, what a Bill's win looks like

907
00:37:35,840 --> 00:37:37,960
is that fun side quest gets abandoned,

908
00:37:37,960 --> 00:37:39,720
but we still happen to win the game.

909
00:37:39,720 --> 00:37:44,400
I think the reality is if this team can really utilize

910
00:37:44,400 --> 00:37:48,440
the combination of Diggs, Davis, Kain, Hardy, I mean,

911
00:37:48,440 --> 00:37:50,440
how often are they on the field at the same time?

912
00:37:50,440 --> 00:37:52,600
Cause I think they're the most effective combination

913
00:37:52,600 --> 00:37:54,160
that we're really playing with.

914
00:37:54,160 --> 00:37:56,840
And I think if they really get into that groove this game,

915
00:37:56,840 --> 00:37:58,080
they're going to run away with the game.

916
00:37:58,080 --> 00:38:00,880
I think they've got something to prove they're home.

917
00:38:00,880 --> 00:38:04,560
I never play into the statistics about like,

918
00:38:04,560 --> 00:38:06,880
they always like to throw these like very,

919
00:38:06,880 --> 00:38:08,240
when a team's not doing so hot,

920
00:38:08,240 --> 00:38:11,200
I love reading the like random thing they throw out

921
00:38:11,200 --> 00:38:12,040
as a team.

922
00:38:12,040 --> 00:38:14,320
So the Bill's, the two things that the Bill's are saying,

923
00:38:14,320 --> 00:38:17,280
which is funny is that we're two and O versus the NFC.

924
00:38:17,280 --> 00:38:18,800
It's like, okay.

925
00:38:18,800 --> 00:38:20,800
And then was the other one.

926
00:38:20,800 --> 00:38:25,800
It was that Josh Allen is five and O playing on Thursdays.

927
00:38:25,800 --> 00:38:26,640
Yeah, we don't care.

928
00:38:26,640 --> 00:38:27,480
So that's science.

929
00:38:27,480 --> 00:38:29,160
Right, exactly.

930
00:38:29,160 --> 00:38:33,160
But I think, you know, I think that they've got a lot of,

931
00:38:33,160 --> 00:38:35,520
they know they have to get back on track.

932
00:38:35,520 --> 00:38:36,720
I think they're coming into this game

933
00:38:36,720 --> 00:38:40,000
knowing that if they don't bring that full performance up,

934
00:38:40,000 --> 00:38:41,800
that they're going to be in really rough shape.

935
00:38:41,800 --> 00:38:45,680
And to me, I think that's typically a recipe

936
00:38:45,680 --> 00:38:47,440
for a Bill's blowout.

937
00:38:47,440 --> 00:38:49,160
And that's what I'm hoping for.

938
00:38:49,160 --> 00:38:51,000
Cool.

939
00:38:51,000 --> 00:38:52,960
This is the first time in the history of the pod,

940
00:38:52,960 --> 00:38:55,200
I've debated not picking the Bill's.

941
00:38:55,200 --> 00:38:56,880
And here's the reason why.

942
00:38:56,880 --> 00:38:59,320
This is a short week.

943
00:38:59,320 --> 00:39:03,280
The offensive misquies that we are seeing

944
00:39:03,280 --> 00:39:05,280
are not just a product of execution,

945
00:39:05,280 --> 00:39:07,200
but they're a product of poor coaching

946
00:39:07,200 --> 00:39:09,200
and poor game preparation.

947
00:39:09,200 --> 00:39:11,520
And game preparation does not get better

948
00:39:11,520 --> 00:39:14,680
when you have less time to prepare for an opponent.

949
00:39:14,680 --> 00:39:16,960
And I had this game circled preseason

950
00:39:17,880 --> 00:39:20,440
as one that could be a trap spot for the Bill's

951
00:39:20,440 --> 00:39:21,840
after coming off a couple of

952
00:39:21,840 --> 00:39:23,600
what I thought would be divisional wins

953
00:39:23,600 --> 00:39:27,400
against Miami and New England.

954
00:39:27,400 --> 00:39:30,040
And then a relatively easy patch there

955
00:39:30,040 --> 00:39:32,560
with the New Jersey Giants,

956
00:39:32,560 --> 00:39:36,360
Jacksonville Jaguars and the Patriots.

957
00:39:38,080 --> 00:39:39,960
Teams that are poorly coached

958
00:39:39,960 --> 00:39:42,160
or at least coaches that are not preparing well,

959
00:39:42,160 --> 00:39:45,560
it doesn't get better when you've got a three day turnaround.

960
00:39:45,560 --> 00:39:48,680
Add to that the dinged up nature of this roster right now.

961
00:39:48,680 --> 00:39:51,480
And I almost, almost for the first time

962
00:39:51,480 --> 00:39:53,120
didn't pick the Bill's to win.

963
00:39:53,120 --> 00:39:54,600
But I am going to pick the Bill's to win,

964
00:39:54,600 --> 00:39:55,880
but I think it's going to be ugly

965
00:39:55,880 --> 00:39:58,720
because these Thursday night games are always ugly.

966
00:39:58,720 --> 00:40:01,880
And I think teams like you, fans like you

967
00:40:01,880 --> 00:40:05,920
that are hoping for Josh Allen to become the Terminator

968
00:40:05,920 --> 00:40:08,160
that we know he can be and throw for five touchdowns

969
00:40:08,160 --> 00:40:11,320
and rush for another one and everybody getting involved,

970
00:40:11,320 --> 00:40:13,440
I think it's going to be really hard to come by.

971
00:40:13,440 --> 00:40:17,000
I think this game ultimately winds up being

972
00:40:17,000 --> 00:40:21,840
Buffalo Bill's 20, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17.

973
00:40:21,840 --> 00:40:24,840
The spread on this game is obscene

974
00:40:24,840 --> 00:40:27,240
and Vegas should be ashamed of themselves.

975
00:40:27,240 --> 00:40:30,080
This line opened at seven and a half.

976
00:40:30,080 --> 00:40:32,760
And the over under on this game is 41.

977
00:40:32,760 --> 00:40:34,920
I take the under on total points

978
00:40:34,920 --> 00:40:37,760
and there is no way the Bill's are covering this spread

979
00:40:37,760 --> 00:40:39,320
on a short turnaround.

980
00:40:39,320 --> 00:40:42,240
Seven and a half is way, way, way too high.

981
00:40:42,240 --> 00:40:44,680
They opened as nine and a half point favorites

982
00:40:44,680 --> 00:40:45,920
against the Patriots.

983
00:40:45,920 --> 00:40:48,440
That line came down to seven and a half

984
00:40:48,440 --> 00:40:50,520
because the betting public is onto the fact

985
00:40:50,520 --> 00:40:53,480
that the Bill's start slow and they have a problem

986
00:40:53,480 --> 00:40:56,120
with defenses that are the profile

987
00:40:56,120 --> 00:40:59,200
of these Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

988
00:40:59,200 --> 00:41:02,080
So I say the Bill's win, but it's an ugly one

989
00:41:02,080 --> 00:41:04,680
and it's 20 to 17 and they don't cover

990
00:41:04,680 --> 00:41:06,880
and we take the under in this game.

991
00:41:06,880 --> 00:41:07,760
Yeah.

992
00:41:07,760 --> 00:41:10,880
I think there's a window and I don't want this to be true.

993
00:41:10,880 --> 00:41:11,840
I'm an aspirate.

994
00:41:12,840 --> 00:41:14,360
When I'm rooting for a football team

995
00:41:14,360 --> 00:41:16,280
that's down by 14 points of the minute left to go

996
00:41:16,280 --> 00:41:17,960
on the guy that's like, they could still win.

997
00:41:17,960 --> 00:41:19,240
They're still away, right?

998
00:41:19,240 --> 00:41:22,800
So I'm always gonna be on the optimism side,

999
00:41:22,800 --> 00:41:27,560
but in my four hours of prep with my Bill's fan experts,

1000
00:41:28,480 --> 00:41:30,320
the consensus was one of two things,

1001
00:41:30,320 --> 00:41:33,960
the Bill's blowout or wheels are off disappointment.

1002
00:41:33,960 --> 00:41:36,080
That was kind of the back and forth

1003
00:41:36,080 --> 00:41:38,440
and I went with my gut and bet on my bills

1004
00:41:38,440 --> 00:41:39,800
because that's just how I am.

1005
00:41:39,800 --> 00:41:44,160
But a lot of the consistent answer I was getting is

1006
00:41:44,160 --> 00:41:46,200
this is either gonna be more of the same,

1007
00:41:46,200 --> 00:41:50,800
that ugly, horrible play in just the wrong times,

1008
00:41:50,800 --> 00:41:53,560
just enough times type of game,

1009
00:41:53,560 --> 00:41:55,400
or they're gonna just come alive.

1010
00:41:55,400 --> 00:41:56,880
But I think a lot of what you're saying

1011
00:41:56,880 --> 00:42:00,080
about how much time they have left in between

1012
00:42:00,080 --> 00:42:01,640
and how little prep time, I mean,

1013
00:42:01,640 --> 00:42:03,160
that's something that definitely think about

1014
00:42:03,160 --> 00:42:04,920
and is dampening my excitement,

1015
00:42:04,920 --> 00:42:07,400
but not enough to get me off of my prediction.

1016
00:42:07,400 --> 00:42:09,960
Yeah, and it's just, these Thursday night games,

1017
00:42:09,960 --> 00:42:12,680
they suck, they suck to play in, they suck to watch,

1018
00:42:12,680 --> 00:42:14,880
none of them have been good, none of them have been

1019
00:42:14,880 --> 00:42:17,800
entertaining and I don't know why this would be any different.

1020
00:42:17,800 --> 00:42:20,440
So, all right, so let's go to some prop bets.

1021
00:42:20,440 --> 00:42:22,720
So Justin for this, we throw out some player stats

1022
00:42:22,720 --> 00:42:25,800
or some team stats and then JJ and I pick the over under

1023
00:42:25,800 --> 00:42:27,920
and we see who's wrong, usually it's both of us.

1024
00:42:27,920 --> 00:42:32,840
All right, so over under, this has been a key for me.

1025
00:42:32,840 --> 00:42:37,000
So Josh Allen time to throw, over under 2.7 seconds.

1026
00:42:37,000 --> 00:42:38,400
What do you think it's gonna be?

1027
00:42:38,400 --> 00:42:43,400
Oh God, gonna say, and so to be clear,

1028
00:42:47,120 --> 00:42:48,680
because I'm not a big bet person.

1029
00:42:48,680 --> 00:42:50,160
So if I say over.

1030
00:42:50,160 --> 00:42:51,600
We need to change that about you.

1031
00:42:51,600 --> 00:42:53,960
So if you say over, that's two point,

1032
00:42:53,960 --> 00:42:55,880
you mean that he's gonna take him longer

1033
00:42:55,880 --> 00:42:57,640
to throw the ball through 2.7 seconds.

1034
00:42:57,640 --> 00:42:58,480
Okay, that's what I figured.

1035
00:42:58,480 --> 00:43:00,760
Yeah, I think it is.

1036
00:43:00,760 --> 00:43:03,480
I think that the way that they've been playing him

1037
00:43:03,480 --> 00:43:05,960
this season has proven that they aren't,

1038
00:43:05,960 --> 00:43:08,600
he's just not making those decisions as quick

1039
00:43:08,600 --> 00:43:09,440
as he used to.

1040
00:43:09,440 --> 00:43:12,160
So even though I have this strong feeling

1041
00:43:12,160 --> 00:43:13,320
that they're gonna do really well,

1042
00:43:13,320 --> 00:43:14,960
I do still think that his reaction time

1043
00:43:14,960 --> 00:43:16,600
is gonna be a little bit slower than it should be.

1044
00:43:16,600 --> 00:43:20,560
Yeah, I'm in order for them to win,

1045
00:43:20,560 --> 00:43:24,040
it's gotta be the under, but I've got them winning ugly.

1046
00:43:24,040 --> 00:43:26,400
So that tells me it's gonna be closer to three seconds

1047
00:43:26,400 --> 00:43:27,240
as well.

1048
00:43:27,240 --> 00:43:29,040
So I'm gonna take the over on this too,

1049
00:43:29,040 --> 00:43:31,280
just because I think there is the wish fulfillment

1050
00:43:31,280 --> 00:43:32,840
of what I want them to do,

1051
00:43:32,840 --> 00:43:34,920
but then there is the reality on the ground.

1052
00:43:34,920 --> 00:43:37,920
And sometimes you are what your record says you are.

1053
00:43:37,920 --> 00:43:41,720
And this team is one and two in their last three games

1054
00:43:41,720 --> 00:43:43,440
and Josh's average time to throw

1055
00:43:43,440 --> 00:43:46,320
has been three seconds or more in all of those games.

1056
00:43:46,320 --> 00:43:48,880
Cause teams are covering up his number one choice.

1057
00:43:48,880 --> 00:43:50,840
He's hesitant to go to a second read.

1058
00:43:50,840 --> 00:43:52,720
And because he's so damned athletic,

1059
00:43:52,720 --> 00:43:54,640
he knows he can extend the play with his legs,

1060
00:43:54,640 --> 00:43:57,640
which he did to great effect in the New England game.

1061
00:43:57,640 --> 00:44:01,160
So I think it needs to be under 2.7,

1062
00:44:01,160 --> 00:44:02,240
but I don't think it's gonna be,

1063
00:44:02,240 --> 00:44:05,440
which is why I'm leading to some of this ugly prediction.

1064
00:44:05,440 --> 00:44:08,480
All right, next up, this is a staple prop

1065
00:44:08,480 --> 00:44:12,040
because we love James Cook on this pod.

1066
00:44:12,040 --> 00:44:13,440
And we feel like he's gotta be a key

1067
00:44:13,440 --> 00:44:15,040
to any Buffalo Bills win.

1068
00:44:15,040 --> 00:44:20,040
So James Cook over under 7.5 receptions this game.

1069
00:44:22,520 --> 00:44:27,120
So just so you know, he is averaging 4.5 on the season.

1070
00:44:27,120 --> 00:44:31,320
So my theory with this prop is that Josh is gonna be forced

1071
00:44:31,320 --> 00:44:33,120
to check down to him more.

1072
00:44:33,120 --> 00:44:35,840
And Cook has been running wild open

1073
00:44:35,840 --> 00:44:38,280
in the middle of the field and in the flat

1074
00:44:38,280 --> 00:44:41,440
when he leaks out after the snap,

1075
00:44:41,440 --> 00:44:44,280
either play action or out of shotgun.

1076
00:44:44,280 --> 00:44:47,360
And I think at some point Josh has to go to him

1077
00:44:47,360 --> 00:44:49,600
in the passing game and in the check down game

1078
00:44:49,600 --> 00:44:51,680
cause this dude is a yak machine.

1079
00:44:51,680 --> 00:44:55,600
So I'm saying James Cook eats in the passing game here.

1080
00:44:55,600 --> 00:44:59,600
And this is a relative weakness because Tampa Bay,

1081
00:44:59,600 --> 00:45:01,400
they wanna bring their linebackers

1082
00:45:01,400 --> 00:45:04,040
on some exotic blitz packages

1083
00:45:04,040 --> 00:45:07,760
and that could open up Cook in the middle of the field for them.

1084
00:45:07,760 --> 00:45:10,040
Yeah, so over under 7.5.

1085
00:45:11,960 --> 00:45:16,280
I'm gonna say over with the asterisk of,

1086
00:45:16,280 --> 00:45:18,000
of course, assuming that they're putting him in

1087
00:45:18,000 --> 00:45:19,760
and giving him the time to do so.

1088
00:45:19,760 --> 00:45:22,640
But I'm gonna say over, I mean, I can't sit here

1089
00:45:22,640 --> 00:45:27,640
and be saying bills by 17 without giving some indications

1090
00:45:27,960 --> 00:45:29,400
that I think they're gonna do some things right.

1091
00:45:29,400 --> 00:45:30,600
I can't sit here and say like,

1092
00:45:30,600 --> 00:45:32,840
I think that Alan's gonna take too much time

1093
00:45:32,840 --> 00:45:34,000
and I don't think Cook's gonna get this.

1094
00:45:34,000 --> 00:45:35,600
Like at some point that just doesn't make

1095
00:45:35,600 --> 00:45:36,560
the calculus work for me.

1096
00:45:36,560 --> 00:45:40,600
But I think, I think everything you said about

1097
00:45:40,600 --> 00:45:42,200
if he's being used in the correct way,

1098
00:45:42,200 --> 00:45:44,200
he really is an output machine for this team

1099
00:45:44,200 --> 00:45:47,520
and he needs to be seen as a natural counter

1100
00:45:47,520 --> 00:45:49,880
to the overprotection of digs.

1101
00:45:49,880 --> 00:45:51,160
I think it's the ticket.

1102
00:45:51,160 --> 00:45:52,800
And if the bills have found their way

1103
00:45:52,800 --> 00:45:54,800
or started to find their way in the last three days,

1104
00:45:54,800 --> 00:45:56,040
then that's one of the major changes

1105
00:45:56,040 --> 00:45:57,480
that I think needs to happen.

1106
00:45:57,480 --> 00:45:59,480
Yep, I agree.

1107
00:45:59,480 --> 00:46:01,960
I will take the over as well.

1108
00:46:01,960 --> 00:46:03,560
I actually think Cook has the ability,

1109
00:46:03,560 --> 00:46:06,080
has the chance to have a really good game

1110
00:46:06,080 --> 00:46:09,440
in the passing game here, less touches in the rush game

1111
00:46:09,440 --> 00:46:11,920
as a result, but I think he's got potential

1112
00:46:11,920 --> 00:46:16,160
to really eat in eight past catches for a running back

1113
00:46:16,160 --> 00:46:19,280
is like Austin Eckler levels of effectiveness.

1114
00:46:19,280 --> 00:46:21,800
So I would love to see Cook take a step

1115
00:46:21,800 --> 00:46:24,000
into that rarefied air and it's a good matchup

1116
00:46:24,000 --> 00:46:25,280
for him to do that in.

1117
00:46:25,280 --> 00:46:28,560
All right, last one, Dawson Knox out indefinitely

1118
00:46:28,560 --> 00:46:30,400
with resurgery, which means Dalton Kincaid

1119
00:46:30,400 --> 00:46:33,280
is our primary tight end and might be our only tight end

1120
00:46:33,280 --> 00:46:36,480
because Quentin Morris is also battling a foot injury as well.

1121
00:46:36,480 --> 00:46:40,960
So over under half a touchdown catch for Dalton Kincaid.

1122
00:46:40,960 --> 00:46:44,520
Basically, will Dalton Kincaid get his first career tutty?

1123
00:46:47,400 --> 00:46:48,520
Do I want them to?

1124
00:46:48,520 --> 00:46:51,360
Yes, I mean, my whole thing is the digs, Davis,

1125
00:46:51,360 --> 00:46:54,160
Kincaid, Hardy, Quad Feta.

1126
00:46:54,160 --> 00:46:55,440
I guess would be that word.

1127
00:46:55,440 --> 00:46:56,400
Take the over then.

1128
00:46:56,400 --> 00:46:58,000
Take the over.

1129
00:46:58,000 --> 00:46:58,920
I'll take the over.

1130
00:46:58,920 --> 00:47:01,840
I mean, I think now that Knox is out,

1131
00:47:01,840 --> 00:47:03,240
the question is, are they going to utilize

1132
00:47:03,240 --> 00:47:05,080
a fullback and blocking schemes more often

1133
00:47:05,080 --> 00:47:08,600
and how are they going to use Kincaid really effectively?

1134
00:47:08,600 --> 00:47:11,280
Again, I think that the bills are going to see the light

1135
00:47:11,280 --> 00:47:12,120
this week.

1136
00:47:12,120 --> 00:47:14,080
I have no reason to believe that other than blind hope

1137
00:47:14,080 --> 00:47:16,440
and dumb luck, which is what fuels most bills fans.

1138
00:47:16,440 --> 00:47:19,280
So what I'm thinking is, I'm going to take the over.

1139
00:47:19,280 --> 00:47:20,960
I mean, I hope that for him.

1140
00:47:20,960 --> 00:47:23,240
And I think if we're going to have a good game,

1141
00:47:23,240 --> 00:47:26,560
it's going to rely on us using all of our weapons.

1142
00:47:26,560 --> 00:47:27,400
I agree.

1143
00:47:27,400 --> 00:47:28,920
But I'm going to take the under on this

1144
00:47:28,920 --> 00:47:30,840
because it took Ken Dorsey seven weeks

1145
00:47:30,840 --> 00:47:32,720
to discover Dalton Kincaid.

1146
00:47:32,720 --> 00:47:36,640
So I, and again, ugly game is what I'm predicting,

1147
00:47:36,640 --> 00:47:39,560
which means lots of check downs to cook,

1148
00:47:39,560 --> 00:47:43,440
muddy some things up to Davis potentially and digs.

1149
00:47:43,440 --> 00:47:46,240
I don't know that there is a world where Kincaid,

1150
00:47:46,240 --> 00:47:48,600
and we want him to take this next step quickly

1151
00:47:48,600 --> 00:47:51,200
because this is wish fulfillment for us bills fans.

1152
00:47:51,200 --> 00:47:52,600
I just don't know that he gets there.

1153
00:47:52,600 --> 00:47:53,560
So I'm going to take the under.

1154
00:47:53,560 --> 00:47:55,280
I think he has a solid game.

1155
00:47:55,280 --> 00:47:57,760
I'd say like five receptions and 65 yards,

1156
00:47:57,760 --> 00:48:00,320
but I don't know that he's going to catch

1157
00:48:00,320 --> 00:48:01,520
his first study of the year.

1158
00:48:02,840 --> 00:48:05,560
And that Justin concludes prediction, sure to go wrong.

1159
00:48:05,560 --> 00:48:08,480
So everything I said is probably going to be wrong,

1160
00:48:08,480 --> 00:48:09,520
fully acknowledged that,

1161
00:48:09,520 --> 00:48:11,680
but that's the beauty of this segment.

1162
00:48:11,680 --> 00:48:13,520
And Justin, congratulations to you

1163
00:48:13,520 --> 00:48:16,240
because you've gotten through your first guest host patch

1164
00:48:16,240 --> 00:48:17,760
here on Buffalo Bread.

1165
00:48:17,760 --> 00:48:19,160
How do you feel?

1166
00:48:19,160 --> 00:48:20,120
Feels great.

1167
00:48:20,120 --> 00:48:23,600
I mean, I told my wife that I was going to be coming on

1168
00:48:23,600 --> 00:48:27,520
and talking and she said, without missing a beat,

1169
00:48:27,520 --> 00:48:30,160
she goes, do they want someone who doesn't know

1170
00:48:30,160 --> 00:48:32,400
that much about football to come in and share their opinion?

1171
00:48:32,400 --> 00:48:33,360
I was like, oh wow.

1172
00:48:33,360 --> 00:48:34,200
Wow.

1173
00:48:34,200 --> 00:48:37,200
But yeah, she's always the ones that love us

1174
00:48:37,200 --> 00:48:39,000
that cut the deepest, isn't it?

1175
00:48:39,000 --> 00:48:39,840
Yeah.

1176
00:48:39,840 --> 00:48:42,040
And I think, you know, my,

1177
00:48:42,040 --> 00:48:44,120
I've gotten really good at following the bills

1178
00:48:44,120 --> 00:48:46,440
and really bad at knowing what other teams can do.

1179
00:48:46,440 --> 00:48:49,320
So I was glad that this focused mostly

1180
00:48:49,320 --> 00:48:51,280
on what do we think the bills are capable of

1181
00:48:51,280 --> 00:48:53,240
and a little bit less on what we think the bucks

1182
00:48:53,240 --> 00:48:54,920
are capable of.

1183
00:48:54,920 --> 00:48:56,400
So it's going to be really interesting.

1184
00:48:56,400 --> 00:48:59,680
I'm really excited to watch and see kind of where we end up

1185
00:48:59,680 --> 00:49:01,560
and who was right or wrong.

1186
00:49:01,560 --> 00:49:03,320
Well, we're definitely going to be wrong

1187
00:49:03,320 --> 00:49:04,320
on pretty much everything.

1188
00:49:04,320 --> 00:49:06,320
Let's just hope we're not wrong about our score prediction

1189
00:49:06,320 --> 00:49:08,240
because the bills really need to win heading

1190
00:49:08,240 --> 00:49:10,320
in a prime time against Cincinnati

1191
00:49:10,320 --> 00:49:11,880
a couple Sundays from now.

1192
00:49:11,880 --> 00:49:14,120
But Justin, thank you again for subbing in for JJ.

1193
00:49:14,120 --> 00:49:15,240
We appreciate it.

1194
00:49:15,240 --> 00:49:17,440
For all of you, those of you listening at home,

1195
00:49:17,440 --> 00:49:20,360
like, share and subscribe wherever you get podcasts,

1196
00:49:20,360 --> 00:49:21,880
Google, Apple and Spotify.

1197
00:49:21,880 --> 00:49:23,360
And as always, no bills.

1198
00:49:23,360 --> 00:49:48,520
Plus, maybe we will have more and try!