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Welcome back to Buffalo Bread Podcast. This is your week six episode. We are going to

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recap the jumble that was Bill's Jags in London and look forward to tomorrow evening's game

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against the New Jersey Giants, I should say. Brian DeBull's return to his hometown as the

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head coach of that that ill ill forsaken team this this year they've had a bit of a struggle.

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Speaking of struggles, how are you doing Dan? You know, I took the loss, I think in stride this

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week, which I was very proud of myself for. Because we've lived through games like that,

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I think before where I mean, listen, props to the the Jags and my called weather defensive

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coordinator for rolling out a game plan that seemed to kind of confuse Josh for two and a

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half three quarters of the game. Although I think it was more about the bills being jet lag than

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anything else. I wasn't upset about the loss, but the injuries, the injuries that keep mounting on

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that would have been historically paced defense. That has me a little bit worried JJ even heading

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into a game where we're facing a depleted Giants unit. Yes, our first team offense is still healthy,

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but it is it is impossible to overstate how the injuries we have suffered in the last two weeks,

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particularly the losses of Trey white against Miami. And then this past weekend in London with

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Milano and Jones going down for an indefinite amount of time, it's impossible to overstate how

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big of losses those particular guys being out are. But we can we get where do you want to start

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do you want to I mean, do you want to break down the game against the Jags because this is my

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Twitter link summary of that game. The bills were asleep for three and a half quarters, and it made

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the Jags look a lot better than they were. And I like Trevor Lawrence and I think he's a good QB,

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but he threw one TD pass and had two turnovers and that was his quote unquote best game of the

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year. So even against the sleeping bills, overall bills effort, the Jags don't only one by five.

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And I think we play that game 99 99 or 100 times the bills one 99 of those games. Well,

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and if it was a real home game, it counted as a home game on the bill schedule, which is just

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criminal. If that was a real home game in Orchard Park on the bill's surface, we might still have

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Matt Milano and Daikwondo Jones and probably or most likely would have won that game. The fact

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that the NFL use that game as a experiment to see what, you know, the outcome on the field would be

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for a team that had two weeks in London versus a team that flew in for London. It's just that so

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upsetting to me that they're like doing that with actual game results that are going to have

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merit on the end of the year playoff seating. Yeah, you're talking about that viral clip of

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Gondal that was released after the game where they said they quote unquote wanted to see if there

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was any kind of competitive advantage by having a team in a different time zone. Yep. Two straight

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weeks, you know, ahead of playing another opponent. So I think you got think you got the

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answer you're looking for, Rod. I think there is in fact a competitive advantage.

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Well, and I think the two I don't want to like, I don't want to just blame it all on the time

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zone and jet lag and whatever like there's you know, we're blaming on the refs too. Yeah. Yeah,

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that's all right. Lay it squarely at the feet of that that ref crew. And that that referee crew

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is notorious. I think they've done other bills games and decided them for the other team, you

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know, against the bill that I'm pretty sure that they might have been the referee crew that decided

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the game for the bills against the Chargers two years ago, with like a phantom, you know,

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passenger ferrets call in Bill's favor that gave them a fresh set of downs inside the red zone.

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And so yeah, they they decide the fate and outcome of too many games and I did not enjoy that at all.

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Yeah, I mean, my readers digest thumbnail sketch of that game is that

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whether it's jet lag, whether it's, you know, other things going on, whether it's the emotional

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impact of losing Milano and Declan Jones, the bills lost the trenches in that game. They,

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the defense held on admirably to, you know, five point only a five point loss after having lost,

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arguably, one of the best middle linebackers and matchup linebackers the entire league Matt Milano

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and all pro, and then losing Declan Jones, who was on pace with his current metrics to have a

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better season than any season Aaron Donald has ever had is in his entire life as an interior

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pass rusher. Just like I'll say that again, and that's a good enough sample size to project,

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right? Like if he were to continue the season, yeah, if he was to continue on that pace or even

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slightly less impressive pace, he still would have had better pressure performance season

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than any Aaron Donald has ever had. So that's just amazing, you know, and he's a he's a native to

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my to my current town. And, you know, they're very proud of him here. Hopefully that that's not,

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you know, completely season ending. I think that that's the one that has more of a likelihood

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of him potentially making it back for the playoffs. Because Sean McDermott was pretty,

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pretty coy about that. In his commentary, you know, after those injuries took place

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for both Milano and Declan Jones, he wasn't willing to write the month for the rest of the

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season, which I am so hopeful that that's true. I'm not banking on it. It's sort of the, you

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know, hope for the best prepare for the worst situation in the bill's defense to have to move on.

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But yeah, I think we've seen games like this before, where the Buffalo Bills lose the line

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of scrimmage, Josh Allen gets too much pressure on him too quickly. And they can't really get to

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the reads or plays that they really want to do. And they fail, you know, the offense looks like

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it's a little stunted and defense, you know, admirably tries to keep the minute. But at the

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end, it was a little too little too late. And I hope that that's not the story. I mean, that's

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the story we've talked about time and time again, is the bills and ability to establish the run,

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losing line of scrimmage, too much early pressure on Josh Allen, offense stalls, like that's

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seen that too many years and too many games. But again, the bills tend to recover pretty well from

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those. I don't know what it is about the Jacksonville Jaguars. I know it's not just London, but they

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end up there like the kryptonite to the bills. And I think Trevor Lawrence is a decent quarterback.

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I think he got a lot more credit for that win than he deserved. Because I really think his

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defense brought him across the finish line over there in London. I'm just happy the boys are

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back in OP for this one. And really looking forward to the giants coming to town.

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Same. Yeah. And I've, you know, we're recording this here the day before the bills will face

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the giants in prime time on Sunday Night Football. And as a result, I have broken my rule of before

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we record I usually don't listen to any other pre or post game analysis. But I've listened

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to a fair amount and I was listening for a couple of things. I think what you said is

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is completely accurate. The bills and we have seen this time and again, it is easy to knock them

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off of what we think their game plan is, which is establishing the run, establishing play action

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for Josh, and then opening things up later on in the game. You know, and and a lot of I will say

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I was hurtened by a lot of the discourse around Dorsey, because after watching that game, I'm

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like, I'm like, I'm like, Dave all had this game where we lost nine six to the Jags and everyone

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was like fire day ball. I'm like, now we've got another loss to the Jags and the fire Dorsey

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chance are gonna ring. But I was heartened by a lot of the analysis. And I think I think people

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are moving off of blaming Dorsey scheme other than like the actual other than like the the total

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drags of Bill's mafia who are like ski like no one knows no one knows what none of those people

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could intelligently tell you what Dorsey scheme is. Yeah. But I think what is fair to criticize

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Dorsey about, and we have seen this as a pattern over his first season and a half season and a

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quarter season and a third what have you of being a offensive coordinator is that his play sequencing

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tends to chunk up in moments where Josh is facing pressure. Now Josh is a great QB against the Blitz

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for his career. He's got a 118 passer rating against the Blitz, you know what I mean? That is

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I mean that is well above league average. But in this game, the Blitz was particularly effective

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in the first three quarters against Josh. And I think in moments like that we have said this,

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there are moments where if you sequence it right, you can confuse Josh for maybe 10,

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maybe 11 plays, but he's going to figure it out. What I look where I put some blame on Dorsey in

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this game is his play sequencing, because he was not setting up Josh to appropriately diagnose what

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was going on. There was a series and we saw this there was a lengthy amount of time where Dorsey

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called 21 straight plays with Josh out of shotgun. And for the game 90% of Josh's snaps were taken

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in shotgun, well above what their average had been because we had made no in the pregame going over

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this that Josh had been playing under center a lot more, which would made play action very,

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very effective. And even in games where they have struggled to establish the run early,

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those play action shots with Josh lining up under center have still been effective.

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And Dorsey almost went entirely away from it because he didn't trust that Josh would have

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the time with his back turned to the offensive line or back turned to the line that Josh would

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have the time to deliver on some of those play action shots. But it ended up playing into Jackson

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ville's hands because they wanted Josh in shotgun. They didn't want to have to deal with play action.

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And they wanted Dorsey to abandon the run, which he did. I think Cook only had like

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13 total touches in that game or something like that. He was negative five yards.

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Negative five yards rushing, right? He made some hay in the passing game. But yeah. So

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so what what is interesting about Dorsey? It's not a scheme, but it is how he reacts

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in game to what other DCs are throwing at him. And he is heading into a game this week against

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a Wink Martindale coach defense that blitzes at a clip of about 51% on the season. The only team

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that blitzes more than the New York Giants are the Minnesota Vikings who have fully acknowledged

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we don't have the DBs to break up passes or stop you from completing a pass. So we're just going

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to rush seven guys at you and and we're going to continue to like three or three and four yard

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dink and dunks. So that is the only team out rushing Wink Martindale. The Jags and Mike Caldwell

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designed a rush package where they blitz Josh 46% of the time and Josh did not perform in a great

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clip against with it. Now his on target throw percentage was still 90%. So Josh was finding

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guys and getting the ball out and getting the ball on target against the blitz in this game,

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but it was playing right into the scheme that the Jags wanted because it was either quick hitters that

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led to quick tackles and no yak or it led to pass breakups or past deflections, right? So

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this is this is where Dorsey now needs to grow. He needs to figure out how to use some other pieces

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in this offensive alignment in moments like that and not simply revert to these patterns that we

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that were also predictable for opposing teams last year. 21 straight shotgun snaps lends itself to

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predictability that is ultimately going to play into the opposing defense's hands, right? And no

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matter how talented this offense is, Dorsey has to fight those impulses and come up with ways to

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sequence plays that allow Josh to adapt and assimilate to what the defense is throwing at him,

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but also continues to keep other guys involved consistently. You and I said this was going to

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be adult and concave breakout game because the Jags have not been able to defend opposing tight

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ends with any any measure of success this season. I believe they're bottom third in the league when

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it comes to opposing tight end success rate against them, right? And can Kate had three catches in

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this game, I want to say? Yeah, it was not good. Yeah. So so Dorsey there, Dorsey has the tools in

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his toolkit with the players that they have on the roster, the depth that is in that past catcher

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room. He needs to stop reverting to this comfort zone that he has developed with his play calling

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sequence when things are not going according to plan. Dorsey needs to come up with a better

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intellectual counter punch if the bills are going to have sustained success when teams look to

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change it up the way that the Jags did. Well, I do he had two catches for 19 yards.

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And jeez, I said he was going to go over 50. I'm more on right now. I mean, you're not the more

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on I think maybe you know, and I don't want to say Dorsey is the more on but I do think you're

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right. I think that Dorsey is too afraid of having Josh Shalons back to the defense when

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the line is clearly losing the battle on early pressure. And so he just goes away from everything

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under center. I get it. He doesn't want, you know, the most prized possession in probably,

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you know, most of football to get slammed from behind, because the interior is not holding up

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for the, you know, or Spencer Brown can't handle Josh Allen for more than one and a half seconds.

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So, you know, I think it's always in the trenches that it's always where you can diagnose it. And

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but I think that Ken Dorsey needs to be a little bit more brave and allow Josh Allen to go under

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center because in the game, I think, you know, when they did do play action, the few times they

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did even without a rushing attack to really sell it. Josh Allen was like four for five with 100

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yards, no interceptions and one of his touchdowns like that play still worked. And so hopefully

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they're able to through film study this week, get some rest and understand that, you know,

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that is still an effective, you know, mechanization for this offense without,

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even if there's there's pressure coming and we know there's going to be pressure coming if the

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Giants. And so hopefully the bills have a better counter punch and actually, you know, was surprised

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at times that they kept Josh Allen in the shotgun with just five man protection. And Cook or Damien

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Harris or somebody back there as a personal protector. Really, I think the better counter

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punch for Jaguar's defensive pressure was to bring bring it in tight, go heavy, bring an extra

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tight end, you know, like load up the box, because that's what they did. They just they beat the

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bills with Matt, they always had more people in the box, the bills couldn't establish the run,

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the short area passing lanes were not getting there, and they were sending more people than

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they could they could block daring Josh Allen to burn them over the top. And we just got unlucky

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on a lot of those throws. And I'll just say this one thing, you know, for that we're not doing play

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by play stuff, but that stuff on digs the interception that that 118 pound five foot nine DB

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got on him unacceptable. You cannot go up and contested catch situation like that and not

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come down with that ball as the offense. I don't care who you are and like especially not the

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one of the best wide receivers in the league that was disgraceful. Yep. Yeah, no, I agree. I agree.

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And Josh, I mean, do his credit, he took he took the blame for the interception. He's like, I could

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have led I could have led digs a little bit more right. It was a pass. Yeah, target. Yep. I mean,

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it was where it was needed to be if you're going to take that shot. And I don't even hate Josh taking

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that shot. Nope, because you have Stefan digs down there in single man coverage like digs

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with a five foot 11 hundred and exactly. He just got out jumped out jumped and out grabbed

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right for that ball. Well, and if he landed on the ground with both of his hands on that ball,

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even if that dude had the ball in his chest, it's the offense's ball. Like, yep, if they're both

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possessing when they hit the ground, it's always the runner. Yep. Yep. Always, always. I love that

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I've got you doing baseball analogies. Who would have thought who would have thought when we first

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started this this potting relationship and your loathing of baseball. I've grown so much. You

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have it's really it's really great. It's heartening to see. I mean, JJ, I think the other story coming

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out of this for me was the injuries, right? Yes. And it you know, we said this and it sucks to be

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right. And we're right so little so so little on this pod that when we are, I think correct about

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something, we should definitely walk it out a little bit. But we said in the beginning of the

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season, the thing that might keep the bills from being contenders was the age of the defense.

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Because you can't take players that have had an injury history in recent years and hope that all

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of a sudden as they get a year older, they will also somehow get healthier. And unfortunately,

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we have seen that play out over the last two weeks to where we are now down Trey White,

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down to Juan Jones, down Matt Milano. And then some other guys on the defense are banged up,

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Christian Benford, who who notably his season last year ended, you know, after or was stunted

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his growth last season, after suffering a early season injury. They've just got guys that have

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had a hard time, I think staying on the field. And now we're in an interesting crossroads because

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the bills, who according to over the cap, when you look at their roster construction, they spend

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less than everybody else on current rookie contracts, they spend the most percentage of their cap

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on mid tier veteran contracts. And they also have a QB who is in the last year of a sweetheart deal

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before his his cap number really starts to explode. So when you invest so little in your rookie class,

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and you invest so much in what we have called floor raising veterans, you open up a window for success

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that again, is wondrous as a bill's fan to be in. But unfortunately, this is the risk that you run.

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Now, the bills are in the unfortunate place of having to put some of these limited rookie

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con players on rookie contracts out there to see what they can do. Kayer Kayer Elam, who did not

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have a great game against the Jags, is going to be getting meaningful reps now. Dorian Williams,

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who was maybe the most confusing draft pick this last past season for the bills, is going to get

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some meaningful playing time as well. He's probably going to compete with Dodson Specter. And I would

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think AJ Klein for some meaningful snaps to replace Milano. And you've got some of these veteran

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contracts like Tim Settle, who's played well, but maybe not played as well as everyone thought he

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would. Now they need to step up and you need a guy like AJ Epinezza, who played absolutely out of

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his mind against the Jags, right? So good. Now you need him to step up as well. So the bills are

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in a place in a place that they haven't been in a while, where they've got to rely on some of these

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younger players, these rookie contracted players to step up and do something for the squad. So

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it's hard to project what that's going to look like moving forward. But I think one thing for

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sure that is going to happen is that the bills are now going to be forced to try to make some sort

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of move, a move that is not Josh Norman, right, who was recently signed to the practice squad,

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they're going to be forced to make some sort of move at the trade deadline, looking at like a

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Minnesota or looking at the roster of like a Denver to see if there is anyone, maybe a

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Chicago, see if there's anyone that can pick up off the scrap heap. JJ, the injuries on this

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defense are going to create a lot of volatility for the performance we're likely to see on the

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field week in and week out. But where are the areas you think these injuries leave the bills the

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most vulnerable right now?

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I think that for me, it's really the the middle linebackers. The Mavalano hole is the biggest

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hole because I think that if you have Benford and Dane Jackson, and the defensive line, if the

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if the rest of the defensive line stays healthy and has a nice rotation, and you have Dane Jackson

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and Christian, Christian Benford, you can win that way. It's sort of like, you know, how Minnesota

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says we don't care who our corners are, we're going to blitz the crap out of your every, that's

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the same concept I could I think the bills can win with them, especially Sean McDermott with

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how aggressive he is, he can win with subpar outside corners if they're playing strong within

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the scheme and in the correct areas when they need to be in the zone. If this pass rush continues

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the way it has. But there will be a gap. I think the only the thing that made it all work together

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was that Terrell Bernard and Matt Milano were so rangy that there was no easy answers when the

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pass rush is getting home to dump something off over the middle. And that I think is the biggest

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hole right now because I do not trust, I do not trust Dodson, I do not trust Klein, I don't trust

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Dorian Williams in coverage. For some reason, they did not feel even with Milano leaving,

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they did not feel that bringing their third safety Taylor wrap into the game. Any snaps was

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necessary, which I found that was very, very, because he's been an in the box safety before

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with the rhythms and played very well. And so the question of like, they really wanted to have

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Dodson and Williams try to cover tight ends and running backs out of the backfield. Instead of

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Taylor wrap. So I was I don't know if he was dealing with an injury or something's going on there,

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but that was surprising to me. Yeah, that was surprising. But yeah, that's that's the gap.

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I think I think that if it's also the cheapest problem to fix, I think that there's young,

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there's probably a young matchup linebacker athletic linebacker somewhere that might be a

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bit of an upgrade for the bills, certainly over AJ Klein or Terrell Dodson, that they could find

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for one of these teams. Yeah. And that's probably a good segue JJ. I don't know about you have

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had my fill of the recapping the Jags game, just a just another disgusting loss where the bills

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beat themselves and weren't really beat by a superior opponent. But with all the injuries

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that they took in London over the weekend, I think it begs the question, what is out there on the

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market? So DB is probably going to be a priority for this team, if they choose to make a move. And

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like you said, middle linebacker, I feel like along the defensive line, they're they're content to

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stand pat. And I got to tell you, as I was coming up with my, as I was coming up with my notes for

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this game, I'm like, do the do the bills just double down, right, and send like a conditional

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third round pick to Minnesota for DeNeal Hunter, and they fig, then they figure out his bridge

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contract, or do they send a fourth round pick to Washington for Chase Young, and do they just

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double down on the pass rush? I mean, Steve Spagnola won two Super Bowls with no defensive

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back of note, and simply having Jason Pierpaugh and Michael Strahan constantly beat the crap

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out of Tom Brady, right? So it can be done. So there was a part of me that's like, do the bills

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just get cute and just double down on the thing that right now has been working the best for them,

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which is the pass rush. But then I backed off that because that's just not being style. That's not

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being style. Yeah, I know I don't I don't see it because it's the kind of thing where like he's

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not going to saddle himself with any players whose contract he doesn't think he's going to be able

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to afford going forward. Correct. And that's the that's the part that I think is it builds off

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you a buckle up, you're not going to see a trade for like, probably Patrick's Certain, right? Like,

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Oh, my God, you're not gonna see there's like two ones and they could never afford to sign them

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after the after his contract his rookie contract is up. So you're not going to see another von

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Miller caliber. I don't think anyone's caliber von Miller, but I'm not going to see a big time

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upgrade anywhere before the trade deadline. But you could expect to see somebody who lost their

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starting job to a draft pick, but has experienced the linebacker before the under 30. Oh, you could

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see they're likely fourth, fifth, sixth rounders who play I think that one of the players for

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Houston fits that bill. There's a couple of linebackers around the league who could help improve

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the bills. There's a couple of you know, fliers you could take on some CBs. I think there's a

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Panther CB, whose names escaping me who's out there that could be a good, good candidate.

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Yeah, there's a there's a couple of guys like that. I've got a I've got a few on my list here.

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My my dream scenario situation would be pass or tan, but he's got a 16 million dollar

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fifth year option. And there's no way the bills are going to be able to ink him long term.

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And I've seen a lot of bills fans be like, we've got to go get pass or tan. But the Broncos have

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made it pretty clear that whatever whatever the hell it is, they're going to let Sean Peyton

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build there over the next 10 years. Sir tan is going to be a part of that package. So yanking

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another starting caliber DB from a team right now is going to be very difficult. Because you've got

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teams like Minnesota that are in active are in a competitive rebuild, as they say, but don't have

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any DBs of note. You know, so you're probably looking at a depth option should Benford go down

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again, bringing in someone that can pick up the system relatively quickly, and could and could

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be a nice, be a nice sort of replacement level player. If in fact, you don't trust Kyrie,

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Lowe, like Elon played 90% of the snaps against the Jags. But Jammarcus Ingram started to get a

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lot of those fourth quarter snaps. So an Ingram is great. He's got a he's one of those like scrap

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peep undrafted free agent types that the bills love to make their hay with and coach up. But

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if you're going to make this run deep into the postseason, as we all think this team's window

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dictates they can do, you're going to need someone who's a little bit elevated above a

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Jammarcus Ingram. So a guy that sticks out to me is Jalen Johnson, the 2022nd round draft pickout

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of Chicago, right? That's that's who I'm thinking of not Carolina, Chicago. Yeah, I was like,

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are you talking about JC Horne? I think JC Horne is injured for the 15th straight game or something

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like that. Well, Jalen Johnson is the yeah, he's probably my top, you know, top dream candidate

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of that kind of ilk where it's like player who's highly directed or has some reputation, but has

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been like a breakout star. Correct. And he's he's fifth round pick that's replaced him in the lineup

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recently. So he's had a hamstring issue. Yeah, he's been he's been out since week three. So

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and listen, he is he's expressed an interest in wanting to stay in Chicago, Chicago's front

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office for whatever it's worth says they would like him there. But if Bean calls and he's like,

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how do you guys feel about it? You guys, I'll give you guys a fourth or a fifth for Jalen Johnson

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and we'll call it good. I don't think they're going to turn turn down draft capital. And he's

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been like one career interception, right? But he's a dude who plays really good coverage. He's got

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great hip fluidity. We'll see how he's going to come back this week, we'll see how he's doing with

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that that hamstring injury. But he's someone who has played in schemes that are very similar to what

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McDermott would like to run. Another guy that kind of sticks out to me who could be available

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is Jordan Hicks, the middle linebacker from Minnesota. Now Minnesota,

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competitive rebuild there, this is a team that is fully rebooting, and they're going to be looking

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to to duff some contracts here. So Hicks is still on a really affordable contract. He's played

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reasonably well. He is not going to give you the the coverage chops that Milano is. But I don't

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know who can, right? I mean, Matt Milano really is one of one when it comes to a lot of that stuff.

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It's like Milano and Fred Warner, you know what I mean? The two maybe the two best cover linebackers

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in the league. So so but what you get with Hicks is someone who if you're not definitely better

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than Dodson and upgrade from Klein, who's basically a statue back there at this point.

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But he Hicks gives you enough coverage ability to do what you want to do schematically, which

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is run nickel. The bills have run nickel 91% of their defensive snaps this season, 91%. And that's

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because as you so so elegantly stated, Milano and Bernard are so rangy, they give they give McDermott

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that luxury to not have to play base against clear run situations. Well, and I think it's not just

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that they're so rangy. It's also that it's the bills play a four to Taran Johnson safeties or

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CBs, right? Like, it's a four to then then Taran Johnson, whatever the hell you want to call him.

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And then the rest of the defensive backfield because that is a Swiss Army knife. Because of

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how he's not a huge player, but how aggressive he is fitting the run and how instinctive he is with

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it. He's got he's got the body of a CB and the mind and instincts of a linebacker. And that's

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the greatest advantage the bills have for why they played nickel so much as they have to run

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Johnson back there. And so, um, yeah, I can see that I could see Devin White from Tampa Bay.

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Yeah, I thought he's expensive. He's expensive. He's asked to be traded. But that team is also

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playing really well right now. Tampa Bay has gotten no incentive to give up one of their best

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players. But I love Devin White. I bet on him in that COVID Super Bowl to win when Super Bowl MVP

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and he should have. He had a monster game that game. Yeah, freaking Tom Brady sticking it to me

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again. Freakin Tom Brady, freaking Tom Brady. So I mean, but I think long story short is other

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than guys like Jalen Johnson, Jordan Hicks. If you want to look at the scrap heap that it will

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be Denver, Jettison a lot, Jettison a lot of their their their personnel, there's not going to be a

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lot out there that are going to make a difference at a position of need for the bills. And then most

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importantly, a player of the bills can afford even on a pro rated contract, according to over the

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cap, they've only got about 2.1 million in cap space right now. And that can get a get eaten very,

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very easily by a Patrick Sertan contract, even if it is pro rated. So the bills are going to be

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bargain shopping. But being probably is feeling some urgency to act a little bit aggressively.

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If nothing else, you are approaching week six, you have 12 more weeks of the season left,

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even if you feel good in that building about Dorian Williams picking it up. And even though all

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indications would tell us that they don't feel this way. But even if you feel like you can now

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coach up Kyrie Elam because you have no choice at 12 weeks, 12 weeks and the playoffs guys are

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just going to get hurt. So you need to do something on the trade market to to bolster the depth that

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a lot of these vulnerable positions. Man, how fun, how fun would it be though if being was just like,

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F it, we're going to rush, we're going to rush three guys and our three guys are going to be

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the best, right? And he gets chased young and Neil Hunter, and he's just rolling that whole set out.

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And he throws Brian Burns into from Carolina, because that's I would love Brian burns, right.

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They have like on the train blocks. So yeah, I know it's just like the kind of thing where

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you got it. He has to do I think he has to do something depth wise, because I believe this

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builds defense as it was playing the first four weeks, five weeks, the first four weeks before

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they lost Trey White, that that defense downgraded two rungs is still probably top three defense

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entering the playoffs with all playoff teams, right? Like they were they were on an incredibly

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meteoric rise as a defense. And I think that we've seen the proof, you know, pre pre injuries,

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we've seen the proof that Sean McDermott has something special going on with the way he

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coaches them and the way that he schemes and then calls plays against offenses, he shuts people down

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after the first drive or so of success. It's been an incredible showing and I hope it continues

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even with the absences because I do think that we're kind of these are these are pipe dreams.

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We we're not going to see any top tier trades. I don't think it's going to be depth. It's not.

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They just can't afford it. Yeah. Like they value their draft capital too much. I mean,

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look at the times that they have traded number one picks. It was for Josh Allen. And it was for

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or Stefan Diggs. And I think that's it, right? Other than like these low, like I'll give you a

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one for your one type of thing, like they never want to find themselves in a first round deficit.

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They always want to pick some somewhere in the first round. So Patrick Sertan is going to take

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multiple first round picks to pry from Denver. And he's a great player and it'd be amazing with that

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that particular defense. But looking at the long view is being as so good at doing,

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he's got to turn over a defensive line. Like there's only one guy signed on the roster next

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year. So he's going to need draft picks in order to do that, because the bills are going to be up

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against the cap again next year. So it's not going to be a splash move. But maybe the bills can do

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something on the market that'll help bolster their depth and bring in some guys. I love Jalen

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Johnson. I know his stats are not great. But I've watched a little bit of his film in preparation

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for this. I love the way he I love the way he shadows routes. He's very good at jumping routes.

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He doesn't have a lot of past deflections. His ball skills aren't great, but he's very sticky

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in coverage. And he just he plays with a chip on his shoulder that I think would fit this unit

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in a great way. So yeah, go throw Chicago a fifth round pick and see what they'll do with it. You

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know what I mean? Well, I think to, you know, seeing Kyrie Lym against the Jaguars, you know,

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he I think a lot of people watching the game, it wasn't as bad as it all looked. It looked like he

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was the sole problem and reason that the Jaguars were able to make anything happen. He was a

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little bit closer in some plays. He was missing some help on other plays that when he gave up a

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couple of completions to Calvin Riddley, he actually was probably playing his technique.

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It's just Mike Hyde or Jordan Poyer was late to cover. That happened a lot. Yeah. Poyer was

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shadowing his shadowing his side of the field. That happened a lot. Having watched a lot of

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this finish your thought on film. But I think we got to talk about Poyer. Yeah. Yeah. So like,

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yeah, having watched a lot of this defense, you know, you get to you start to see what the concepts

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are. Even if you don't know what play is called. And there were a few times where I was like, oof,

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there's a safety who's probably his job is to keep leverage over the top on Kyrie

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Elam's coverage, who is who is missing their assignment or coming late downhill. So

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no, no, I listen, it looked it looked Elam looked pretty bad on the broadcast when you can see it

374
00:35:18,000 --> 00:35:22,720
on the broadcast how bad a DB looks six or seven yards of separation. Yeah, it's saying something

375
00:35:22,720 --> 00:35:27,840
which is crazy, which is absolutely nutty for someone with his athleticism and speed to be giving

376
00:35:27,840 --> 00:35:34,560
up that kind of cushion on on his coverage. He's his confidence wasn't there, right? And

377
00:35:35,440 --> 00:35:40,160
McDermott insinuated to some extent that Elam wasn't ready to play like it's always next man up,

378
00:35:40,160 --> 00:35:44,640
you always got to be ready to play. So we tell people, but he's been a healthy scratch. He hasn't

379
00:35:44,640 --> 00:35:52,080
played meaningful football since the playoffs last season. So I get it. But I mean, he's been in

380
00:35:52,080 --> 00:35:57,440
mothballs for the last four weeks. So and that's the thing is like, I'm usually one to come down

381
00:35:57,440 --> 00:36:01,680
pretty hard on a player when they they're an fellow player and they have a piss poor effort.

382
00:36:01,680 --> 00:36:06,960
Him like that, like Elam appeared to have. But I will say it was a weird circumstance. He probably

383
00:36:06,960 --> 00:36:11,520
wasn't expecting to get into the game. Maybe he didn't prepare like a starter and a lesson he

384
00:36:11,520 --> 00:36:16,160
needed to learn is what that looks like on tape. That's fair. Yeah, what that looks like on tape

385
00:36:16,160 --> 00:36:19,520
when you take it out of gear and practice because you don't think you'll ever get in.

386
00:36:21,120 --> 00:36:27,040
And so I would like to see Kyrie, this probably isn't the test next week's probably not the test,

387
00:36:27,040 --> 00:36:31,120
but it's likely he's going to get snaps for a little while, right? Like, even if it's just

388
00:36:31,760 --> 00:36:38,240
some here and there and relief of danger and Christian Benford, you know, sprinkled in,

389
00:36:38,240 --> 00:36:45,840
and there's going to be opportunities for him and hope that he takes that terrible game in London

390
00:36:45,840 --> 00:36:52,320
and uses it as a as a learning point to prepare a little bit better. But yeah, like I said,

391
00:36:52,320 --> 00:36:57,680
the news that he could look amazing, he could play every snap as outside corner against the giants,

392
00:36:57,680 --> 00:37:01,600
and people could be singing his praises might get an interception, probably not off Tyrone

393
00:37:01,600 --> 00:37:06,400
Tarot Taylor, but but he could, you know, get past brickups, he could look real sticky in

394
00:37:06,400 --> 00:37:10,720
coverage, but I think it's also because the talent of that offense is not very good. And so

395
00:37:11,600 --> 00:37:17,360
I would like to see Kyrie, you know, again on the field against top tier competition,

396
00:37:17,360 --> 00:37:21,200
somebody who's as good of a route runner as Calvin Ridley and see how he fares

397
00:37:21,200 --> 00:37:26,640
with a week worth of preparation knowing he's a starter. Yeah, me too. And listen,

398
00:37:26,640 --> 00:37:32,160
dude, we've been asking for this, like we've been like, where's Elam, where's Elam? So we'll see,

399
00:37:32,160 --> 00:37:37,440
again, 12 weeks left in the season after this game against the giants, we will see if this

400
00:37:37,440 --> 00:37:43,040
first round picked with this immense talent can be coached up by this unit, be coached up by the

401
00:37:43,040 --> 00:37:49,920
staff and really kind of improve his draft position was not a fluke that he was not just some sort of

402
00:37:49,920 --> 00:37:54,480
panic pick after McDuffie was picked by the by the chiefs, which again is probably the guy the

403
00:37:54,480 --> 00:38:00,320
bills really wanted. But yeah, yeah. So yeah, but real quick, before we move on to the Giants

404
00:38:00,320 --> 00:38:06,960
pregame, Jordan Poyer really stood out to me for not great reasons in this game. And I'm going to

405
00:38:06,960 --> 00:38:14,000
preface this by saying Jordan Poyer is maybe other than Josh Allen and Stefan Diggs, my favorite

406
00:38:14,000 --> 00:38:20,960
player of this this bill, this bills era that we are in. He's an absolute warrior. It feels like

407
00:38:20,960 --> 00:38:25,760
every week he's dealing with an injury. And yet he still straps it up and he is out there for this

408
00:38:25,760 --> 00:38:32,080
team. He's an emotional leader. He is an on the field leader for this unit. Like Jordan Poyer,

409
00:38:32,080 --> 00:38:36,240
like in my for my money, should never have to buy a drink for himself and Buffalo for everything

410
00:38:36,240 --> 00:38:45,120
he's done for that team. All that all that being said, I think he is approaching a point with some

411
00:38:45,120 --> 00:38:50,400
of the injuries that he has battled to where he is trying to cope like a lot of a lot of older

412
00:38:50,400 --> 00:39:00,000
veterans do with how to attack his role when his body is failing him. Like Jordan Poyer is one of

413
00:39:00,000 --> 00:39:07,280
the best open field tacklers at the safety position that the NFL has known. And yet every angle he

414
00:39:07,280 --> 00:39:15,520
seems to take on routes, every coverage that he he shadows seems to be wrong. And it's not because

415
00:39:15,520 --> 00:39:22,000
he all of a sudden forgot how to play football and forgot what angle he needs to approach attack

416
00:39:22,000 --> 00:39:28,240
a lot. I think it's because his body is starting to fail him in ways that he wasn't anticipating.

417
00:39:28,880 --> 00:39:33,520
So Poyer and McDermott and that team, they're going to have to make some adjustments

418
00:39:33,520 --> 00:39:39,760
in the role that he is playing. He is still gangbusters and run defense, like you put Poyer

419
00:39:39,760 --> 00:39:44,400
in the box. And I think this is maybe why we weren't seeing wrap in the box too much. We saw

420
00:39:44,400 --> 00:39:48,240
a lot of Poyer in the box once Maloud went out, you know, the bills are just trying to figure

421
00:39:48,240 --> 00:39:53,920
some stuff out. But he played about 10% of his snaps in the box Poyer did. And he was great.

422
00:39:53,920 --> 00:39:58,080
He was absolutely great. And being one of the few bills that could shut down ETN,

423
00:39:58,880 --> 00:40:02,960
who otherwise had a massive game against this substandard bills rush defense.

424
00:40:04,960 --> 00:40:09,360
The Poyer question is going to be an interesting one, because as they're now

425
00:40:09,360 --> 00:40:14,400
flooded in that backfield with youth and an experience, they're going to have to lean on the

426
00:40:14,400 --> 00:40:21,600
roof of that defense and hide in Poyer even more than they have before. And I just, I don't know

427
00:40:21,600 --> 00:40:26,080
that Poyer's body is going to allow him to do it at this particular stage in his career.

428
00:40:26,080 --> 00:40:31,440
Well, and I think too, and if people, if this is heresy to us talking about Poyer at the end of

429
00:40:31,440 --> 00:40:39,760
his career, then so be it. The bills said all that they needed to say by not offering him

430
00:40:39,760 --> 00:40:46,160
anything other than a mid to lower tier starter money contract on a one, is it a one year? I

431
00:40:46,160 --> 00:40:49,760
think it's a one year. I mean, it's a two year, but they can get out of it after this year if

432
00:40:49,760 --> 00:40:55,280
they want to. Yeah. So one year with guarantees, two year two, it's like a year by year contract.

433
00:40:55,280 --> 00:41:03,920
They the market wasn't there because I think the rest of the NFL know is what the bills also knew,

434
00:41:03,920 --> 00:41:08,320
which is that he is a declining player, not because he doesn't have the spirit or the know

435
00:41:08,320 --> 00:41:13,680
how, but because his he's had so many injuries and he's played through so much. And like you said,

436
00:41:13,680 --> 00:41:20,400
I think warrior is a perfect word. Total for his game. But you know, time is undefeated.

437
00:41:20,400 --> 00:41:26,080
And the game is a brutal, it's a brutal sport. And he is, you know, six foot seven,

438
00:41:26,960 --> 00:41:32,880
you know, 240 to 50 pounds of pure muscle, he's, he's, he's going to wear it a different

439
00:41:32,880 --> 00:41:38,400
ring than like a Josh Allen. And so, and he plays such a physical brand of football to he brings

440
00:41:38,400 --> 00:41:42,240
it every single snap. And I think what we're seeing, I think you're right, I think we're

441
00:41:42,240 --> 00:41:46,960
seeing a decline. I think there's still a possibility he could change his game. I mean,

442
00:41:46,960 --> 00:41:52,560
I remember people talking about at rate being washed. And then he played four more seasons and

443
00:41:52,560 --> 00:41:58,240
went to two more pro bowls, because he just changed the way he played. He played a little bit more

444
00:41:58,240 --> 00:42:04,320
like Gretzky and was where the puck was going to be, as opposed to being a missile towards the spot

445
00:42:04,320 --> 00:42:08,640
it was at. Correct, correct. I mean, people have been trying to retire Harrison Smith from this

446
00:42:08,640 --> 00:42:13,760
league for the past like four years, right? And he's still out there kicking. So, yeah, no, it

447
00:42:13,760 --> 00:42:22,320
and employer make no mistake is one of the smartest guys on either side of the ball when he takes the

448
00:42:22,320 --> 00:42:28,160
field. He's got to know this about himself that coaching staff has to see this happening in real

449
00:42:28,160 --> 00:42:35,840
time. I'm very interested to see, I don't know if the Giants game will be a good measuring stick

450
00:42:35,840 --> 00:42:41,760
for this or not. But I'm very interested to see as we line up a stretch of opponents that have

451
00:42:41,760 --> 00:42:48,880
substandard passing games. I am very interested to see over the next three weeks, if we see an

452
00:42:48,880 --> 00:42:55,680
adjustment to Poyer's role or how Poyer is approaching the game. Because the mistakes that

453
00:42:55,680 --> 00:43:02,800
he made, the mistackles, the bad angles, you doubly cannot afford that now with a lot of the youth

454
00:43:02,800 --> 00:43:07,760
and an experience, not just staying that DB room, but also hitting the middle of the field as well.

455
00:43:07,760 --> 00:43:12,560
The spine of that defense is now very, very vulnerable. And that's where they're going to

456
00:43:12,560 --> 00:43:16,800
need Poyer and hide to really step up. So it's going to be interesting to see that adjustment

457
00:43:16,800 --> 00:43:21,840
over the next couple of weeks. And that adjustment over the next couple of weeks, JJ, we'll start

458
00:43:21,840 --> 00:43:28,640
tomorrow with our prime time game against the New Jersey Giants. The segway, the segways are back,

459
00:43:28,640 --> 00:43:34,720
my friend. They are back. I'm feeling it. I am feeling these segment switches. All right,

460
00:43:34,720 --> 00:43:39,520
good for me. All right, cool. So let's talk a little bit about the upcoming game against the

461
00:43:39,520 --> 00:43:44,800
Giants here. So I got some numbers for you, JJ, as I always do just some quick numbers, just some

462
00:43:44,800 --> 00:43:49,600
quick points of comparison here, I've been leaning heavy on DVO a over the past couple of weeks,

463
00:43:49,600 --> 00:43:54,160
I'm gonna switch it up a little bit, I'm going to hit EPA. All right, so this is expected points

464
00:43:54,160 --> 00:44:00,240
added. So here's what you have in our breakdown side by side comparison, you are Buffalo Bills

465
00:44:00,240 --> 00:44:06,480
now sitting at three and two, third in passing offense EPA with point two seven points per

466
00:44:06,480 --> 00:44:12,400
dropback, which is pretty good. Only the I want to say only the chiefs and the dolphins are better

467
00:44:12,400 --> 00:44:17,920
at this point. Crazy still about the chiefs because that team just cannot put points up on the board.

468
00:44:18,480 --> 00:44:22,320
But they're they're expected points added every time a home touches the balls insane.

469
00:44:22,960 --> 00:44:27,040
Rushing offense, even after that last like a luster performance against the Jags,

470
00:44:27,040 --> 00:44:33,680
fourth in overall EPA per rush, passing defense, we're third in the league, rushing defense,

471
00:44:33,680 --> 00:44:41,760
our weak spot as we have noted all year, 23rd in the league. Yep, you're New Jersey Giants,

472
00:44:42,800 --> 00:44:47,760
JJ, I'm going to preface this by saying they're not as good as the Buffalo Bills are, which is the

473
00:44:47,760 --> 00:44:52,960
understatement of the world. Right, they're just they're just not good in a lot of different

474
00:44:52,960 --> 00:44:59,840
ways right now, sadly for for a boy Brian table, passing offense 30th out of 32 teams rushing

475
00:44:59,840 --> 00:45:04,640
offense 27th, though in fairness, their offensive line has been dinged up, and they haven't had

476
00:45:04,640 --> 00:45:10,880
say quant Barkley for any consistent stretch, passing defense 28th in the league in EPA,

477
00:45:10,880 --> 00:45:17,440
and then rushing defense, I am feeling a James Cook bounce back game 30th out of 32 teams in

478
00:45:17,440 --> 00:45:25,440
rushing EPA. Only the Denver Broncos, only the Denver Broncos and Carolina Panthers are worse

479
00:45:25,440 --> 00:45:31,280
and they're rushing defense EPA. Well, and I think you need to also maybe correct the statistics

480
00:45:31,280 --> 00:45:39,200
for the Denver Broncos rushing defense, because the what was it the dolphins put 380 yards on them

481
00:45:39,200 --> 00:45:45,280
or something. So yeah, no kidding. So that can skew some numbers. It's, it's, there's a lot of

482
00:45:45,280 --> 00:45:51,120
things I think the biggest statistics this week is the Buffalo Bills are the best team in the league

483
00:45:51,120 --> 00:45:59,120
at at sacking opposing opposing quarterbacks per person like their their sacrate per per pass

484
00:45:59,120 --> 00:46:06,800
attempt is the highest the and their interception rate per pass is the highest. The giants have the

485
00:46:06,800 --> 00:46:15,920
worst allowed sex per pass rate and the worst quantity of interceptions per pass. And so it's

486
00:46:15,920 --> 00:46:22,560
just like it seems like a perfect storm. But after the Jags game where I was so bullish on the bills

487
00:46:22,560 --> 00:46:27,840
going over there, flying across being 16 hours of you know, without sleep or whatever it was on

488
00:46:27,840 --> 00:46:33,520
Friday night that they did and then trying to catch up and all this stuff. After it's so bullish,

489
00:46:33,520 --> 00:46:39,200
I'm not about to say like this is going to be an absolute slaughter. But everything every single

490
00:46:39,200 --> 00:46:46,080
metric we can look at describes what should be an absolute slaughter. In you know, I know we're

491
00:46:46,080 --> 00:46:52,080
kind of over the game in London, but that Jaguar team statistically was a better match for the

492
00:46:52,080 --> 00:46:56,240
bills, you know, was about that level of a match for the bills could squeak out a win if they played

493
00:46:56,240 --> 00:47:02,880
a perfect game and cause some errors for the bill. So this Giants team is this Giants team is

494
00:47:02,880 --> 00:47:07,520
pretty abysmal. And the biggest thing for the Giants is people look at you know how terrible

495
00:47:07,520 --> 00:47:12,640
their offense is they haven't scored a touchdown in the first half one time this season. On offense.

496
00:47:12,640 --> 00:47:17,680
On offense. Yeah, they've had one total touchdown. It was that pick six against Miami last week.

497
00:47:17,680 --> 00:47:23,440
Yes, that's it. That's their only first half touchdown was a defensive touchdown. And you know,

498
00:47:23,440 --> 00:47:28,640
people pointed at like this is God awful. It's also worth noting that they are missing their

499
00:47:28,640 --> 00:47:33,200
left tackle their center and now I think their right tackle as well. So they're preferred

500
00:47:34,000 --> 00:47:39,280
three of their five preferred offensive line starters are out. And Andrew Thomas their

501
00:47:39,280 --> 00:47:43,360
left tackle is probably one of the top three best left tackles in the entire NFL. And so

502
00:47:44,000 --> 00:47:48,720
it's it's not nothing to be missing that much beep up front. And so they're losing the line

503
00:47:48,720 --> 00:47:52,720
of scrimmage. And as we always say, it starts in the trenches. If you don't have, you know,

504
00:47:52,720 --> 00:47:58,480
the line of scrimmage, you don't have anything. Correct. I think your let down for Giants fans

505
00:47:58,480 --> 00:48:03,760
of which there are many in this area. This where I live in the Southern tier is Giants country or

506
00:48:03,760 --> 00:48:08,400
was until Josh Allen was drafted, then weirdly it started flipping and there's a lot more bills

507
00:48:08,400 --> 00:48:17,120
flags. The bandwagon is strong here. But sadly for Giants fans, it's you know, they've lost a

508
00:48:17,120 --> 00:48:23,040
lot of talent. And they expected the defense which was pretty solid last year to show up and help

509
00:48:23,040 --> 00:48:28,480
carry some of the, you know, offensive woes early in the season. And the defense also has been absent.

510
00:48:28,480 --> 00:48:33,600
They've been playing spirited football, and not bringing the kind of juice that you'd expect them

511
00:48:33,600 --> 00:48:40,240
to bring. Right. I mean, it's so I mean, this is the stat that that'll say it all. They blitz,

512
00:48:40,240 --> 00:48:46,400
as we said earlier in the pot at a rate of 51%, second highest in the league, their success rate

513
00:48:46,400 --> 00:48:52,560
in getting pressure and sacks on the QB. So QB hits QB hurries or sacks, their success rate

514
00:48:52,560 --> 00:48:59,040
when they blitz is 29th in the league. And that's because they don't have DBs that are have the

515
00:48:59,040 --> 00:49:05,600
ability to play on an island against opposing wide receivers and tight ends. You've seen Wink

516
00:49:05,600 --> 00:49:11,200
kind of change it up a little bit over the past couple of weeks. That long TD that Tyree Kill had

517
00:49:11,200 --> 00:49:17,440
was actually Wink rushing three and dropping eight, something he never does, never does.

518
00:49:17,440 --> 00:49:24,000
But but even Martindale is starting to acknowledge that with the lack of talent they have in that

519
00:49:24,560 --> 00:49:29,200
cornerback room, they just can't leave those guys on an island constantly defending the

520
00:49:29,200 --> 00:49:33,440
multitude of weapons that are being rolled out against them every week. And the bills while

521
00:49:33,440 --> 00:49:38,320
not healthy and defense are rolling out a mostly healthy offense this week. So it

522
00:49:39,680 --> 00:49:45,680
listen, any given Sunday, any team can beat another team. So there is always a chance

523
00:49:45,680 --> 00:49:53,040
that despite the matchup on paper, the bills lose this game, right? There's very, there's very like

524
00:49:53,040 --> 00:49:57,600
two years ago, Jacksonville Jaguar vibes to this game, where we're both like, ah, there's no way,

525
00:49:57,600 --> 00:50:04,880
right? There's no way. But I would be I would, I would go on the pod next week and tell you the

526
00:50:04,880 --> 00:50:10,880
bill season is over if they lose to the giants this weekend, any meaningful way. Like, I mean,

527
00:50:10,880 --> 00:50:18,160
like you said, this is a team that is not I don't believe they've hit double digits in the first

528
00:50:18,160 --> 00:50:23,280
half of any game they've played in this year so far. They've had one defensive touchdown,

529
00:50:23,280 --> 00:50:28,320
one total score in the first half of all their games. And the only time the offense looked even

530
00:50:28,320 --> 00:50:33,440
like a modicum of what it looked like last year was in a desperation second half against the

531
00:50:33,440 --> 00:50:38,480
Arizona Cardinals in week two. They can't protect the QB Daniel Jones will be out this week.

532
00:50:38,480 --> 00:50:44,480
So we get a Tarad Taylor potential revenge game coming to Buffalo. All right. But we know what

533
00:50:44,480 --> 00:50:49,680
Taylor is he's not going to take shots downfield, which you could argue this is where the bills are

534
00:50:49,680 --> 00:50:54,720
most vulnerable, given the injuries that they're facing and the poor, poor your issues that we've

535
00:50:54,720 --> 00:51:00,320
talked about. And also to there's no guarantee that this offensive line is going to keep him

536
00:51:00,320 --> 00:51:06,560
upright enough against this bill's pass rush long enough to to even take those types of shots. So

537
00:51:06,560 --> 00:51:11,440
we know the type of game that the Taylor is going to roll out there. You know, the question becomes,

538
00:51:11,680 --> 00:51:18,400
do the Giants just play keep away like Barkley might play this game? Does does Taylor dink and

539
00:51:18,400 --> 00:51:23,600
dunk his way down the field? Barkley bust a couple? And do they just keep Allen on the sidelines like

540
00:51:23,600 --> 00:51:30,480
the Jags did by dominating time possession? Maybe. But that strategy takes winning up front in the

541
00:51:30,480 --> 00:51:35,440
trenches. And that is something that I do not believe the Giants will have the ability to do.

542
00:51:35,440 --> 00:51:40,560
And I think this game for whatever, whatever trauma we might still be experiencing from the

543
00:51:40,560 --> 00:51:45,360
Bangles game where we got absolutely worked by their backup offensive line last season,

544
00:51:45,680 --> 00:51:49,600
I just don't think it's the same thing. I don't think it's the same thing. This is a different

545
00:51:49,600 --> 00:51:55,040
defensive line they're playing under with a different style, a different type of ferocity.

546
00:51:55,760 --> 00:52:01,280
And this Giants offensive offensive line has been a get right game for defensive lines that have

547
00:52:01,280 --> 00:52:08,160
been struggling to sack the QB. The Miami Dolphins who had a total of seven sacks going into their

548
00:52:08,160 --> 00:52:13,040
game with the Giants had seven in their game against the Giants last week. You know, Daniel

549
00:52:13,040 --> 00:52:20,480
Jones has been sacked 29 times this season. Like he is on pace to be sacked close to 100 times this

550
00:52:20,480 --> 00:52:26,400
year. It's absolutely insane. Absolutely insane. And I think that the thing about that that's,

551
00:52:26,400 --> 00:52:30,960
you know, that Bill's fans, if you're like salivating or going down to Caesar Sportsbook

552
00:52:30,960 --> 00:52:36,640
and placing a bet on Bill's getting 12 sacks, I'd say just hold on one second, because Daniel

553
00:52:36,640 --> 00:52:42,720
Jones is also notorious for not noticing pressure, not sensing pressure and holding the ball way

554
00:52:42,720 --> 00:52:49,920
too long. That's, Tarad Taylor holds the ball too long, but he is way more escapable than Daniel

555
00:52:49,920 --> 00:52:55,520
Jones, I think. So even that this late stage of his career. So I would say that he's a great

556
00:52:55,520 --> 00:52:58,800
player. So I would expect the bills are going to get some decent pressure, but I don't see the

557
00:52:58,800 --> 00:53:04,320
bills getting more than probably six sacks. Yeah, still a six sack game would be delightful.

558
00:53:04,320 --> 00:53:12,240
It would be. It would be. So I mean, the numbers in the matchup so heavily favor the bills right

559
00:53:12,240 --> 00:53:18,640
now, I believe the over under on this game is like 41 points, and the bills are 14 and a half

560
00:53:18,640 --> 00:53:28,160
point favorite. So is there a world where the Giants win? Yes. To me, of course. And to me,

561
00:53:28,160 --> 00:53:35,440
here's what that world looks like. Josh throws three picks or turns the ball over multiple

562
00:53:35,440 --> 00:53:40,480
times, which he hasn't done since week one. The Giants play keep away and they keep Josh and

563
00:53:40,480 --> 00:53:47,280
that offense off the field. They keep them in what teams seem to do, which is arms length

564
00:53:47,280 --> 00:53:53,280
deficits, seven points, 10 points, three points, they keep the bills at arms length deficit,

565
00:53:53,280 --> 00:53:57,200
and they don't do not allow that offense to get into any kind of real rhythm.

566
00:53:58,080 --> 00:54:03,840
That to me is the and then the pressure packages that Martindale has working at a clip that is

567
00:54:03,840 --> 00:54:11,760
better than currently 29th percent and or 29th 29th in the league. That to me is the scenario

568
00:54:11,760 --> 00:54:15,520
where it works Dexter Lawrence could make some hay in the middle of that line against Mitch

569
00:54:15,520 --> 00:54:21,440
Morris, Conor McGovern and Osiris Torrance. But outside of and Kavon Tibido, who's still kind

570
00:54:21,440 --> 00:54:27,040
of figuring it out as a situational guy might might make some sacks. I don't know. Like his

571
00:54:27,040 --> 00:54:32,640
pressure rate is so low, he's got four sacks, but that's kind of deceiving. He's not winning a lot.

572
00:54:32,640 --> 00:54:38,560
His past rush win rate is bottom tier in the league. And his pressure rate is like single digits.

573
00:54:38,560 --> 00:54:44,080
Like, yeah, I get he's got four sacks, but they're not doing any of the things that you would need

574
00:54:44,080 --> 00:54:48,800
to do consistently against Josh and this offensive line to get them out of rhythm. But to me, if

575
00:54:48,800 --> 00:54:53,440
the Giants win, that's how they win. The more likely scenario here is that the bills wouldn't

576
00:54:53,440 --> 00:54:57,760
walk away. And this is a get right game for them after that absolute turd they laid in London.

577
00:54:58,800 --> 00:55:02,560
I like I like the bills to win this game and clean up their turds.

578
00:55:04,400 --> 00:55:08,800
They don't tend to stack losses either. I think that they're the best team in the league

579
00:55:08,800 --> 00:55:13,600
in terms of their win rate coming off of a loss since John McDermott became the coach.

580
00:55:13,600 --> 00:55:20,880
Correct. They he he is a is, you know, a magnificent wizard with like the blame game

581
00:55:20,880 --> 00:55:25,920
and laying out the film when his team underperforms and really lighting fires on their guys,

582
00:55:25,920 --> 00:55:29,760
you know, tush to get going. Yeah, absolutely. This this will not be

583
00:55:30,400 --> 00:55:35,760
an 11 penalty performance for the bills this week. Unless that officiating crew comes swimming

584
00:55:35,760 --> 00:55:40,400
across the ocean and does it. I hope not. Never let them officiate another game. I'm not a big

585
00:55:40,400 --> 00:55:45,040
I'm not a big blame the rough sky, but they're terrible. Those are terrible. Those are terrible.

586
00:55:45,040 --> 00:55:50,480
All right. Predictions. Yes, let's do it. All right. Let's talk final score.

587
00:55:52,240 --> 00:55:59,600
I I usually get in trouble with this one, because whenever I've picked a big number for the bills,

588
00:55:59,600 --> 00:56:04,320
not only have they underachieved, but they have lost that game. I think Tennessee Titans game

589
00:56:04,320 --> 00:56:09,120
where Josh slipped on that fourth and won the only time in his career he has slipped.

590
00:56:09,120 --> 00:56:13,120
And I think it's because I said the bills are with that game like 33 to three. So

591
00:56:16,400 --> 00:56:24,240
all right, here it is. Here's here's what I'm saying. 28, 7. Okay, this one 28, 7 bills one.

592
00:56:24,240 --> 00:56:31,200
And I think the seven that the Giants get is like some weird like Jalen Hyatt catches like a 50 yard

593
00:56:31,200 --> 00:56:37,360
like a like a takes a ball like that he catches five yards from the line of scrimmage and takes

594
00:56:37,360 --> 00:56:41,520
it like 50 something like that something weird like that. Doreen Williams misses a tackle and

595
00:56:41,520 --> 00:56:49,440
hybrakes one. So I think that I think Seyquan Barkley plays and I think the absence of Milano

596
00:56:49,440 --> 00:56:54,960
and DeKwan Jones has felt a little bit. I think the bills still have a strong handle on this game.

597
00:56:54,960 --> 00:56:59,280
But I do think there's a capacity for this game to become a Seyquan Barkley, you know,

598
00:57:00,160 --> 00:57:05,120
return return show. And we do know that Dabel has some creative kind of run looks and things that

599
00:57:05,120 --> 00:57:10,240
he's gonna heat this is a desperate team. He's down too many starters, he's overpowered so much.

600
00:57:10,240 --> 00:57:16,400
I could see Dabel coming up with some unique kind of run looks and putting Doreen Williams or

601
00:57:16,400 --> 00:57:21,760
somebody, you know, a new starter in there in a blender of knowing where to go with the fit. So

602
00:57:21,760 --> 00:57:27,440
I could see maybe Seyquan Barkley if he comes back and looks you know, healthy, having a big

603
00:57:27,440 --> 00:57:32,960
game against the bills 31 14 bills win control it all the way. But I think that they get run all over.

604
00:57:32,960 --> 00:57:39,760
Yeah, no, I would agree with that. I got a I got a sneaking suspicion that McDermott wants to put

605
00:57:39,760 --> 00:57:45,040
Dabel down hard in this game. Like there was some there was some dirt when he left and like,

606
00:57:45,040 --> 00:57:49,840
yeah, different stuff about there. What's a hard man to work for and all this. Yeah, well, and then

607
00:57:49,840 --> 00:57:54,240
us city it's are like, Oh, well, we shouldn't let Dabel walk out. We should have given a McDermott's

608
00:57:54,240 --> 00:57:58,240
job. Right. I think McDermott wants to put Dabel down so freaking hard in this game.

609
00:57:58,240 --> 00:58:01,760
I don't know what idiots you're talking about. Definitely wasn't me. I've never done it wasn't

610
00:58:01,760 --> 00:58:05,520
us. Yeah, we never uttered that. No, I never thought Dabel was capable of

611
00:58:07,440 --> 00:58:13,040
being as good of a leader of men as McDermott is. No, this is true. We have been consistent on that

612
00:58:13,040 --> 00:58:17,120
point for sure. Yeah, for as much as we love what Dabel did for this team. That is good.

613
00:58:18,080 --> 00:58:25,120
Prop bets. I like where you're at with with total sacks for the bills. So I'm going to put the

614
00:58:25,120 --> 00:58:31,920
over under it five and a half. Okay. So that's a devastating game under normal circumstances.

615
00:58:32,640 --> 00:58:38,320
But the only time Jones has been sacked five times or less this season was against Arizona.

616
00:58:38,320 --> 00:58:44,080
Oh, geez. Yeah, it's it. So I'm going to put the over under right there at five and a half.

617
00:58:44,080 --> 00:58:51,440
And I'm over here over. I'm over. I'm over. I think this is a listen, I don't it could get gruesome.

618
00:58:51,440 --> 00:58:55,360
So I don't want to throw like a huge number out there. But I think it's it's going to be over

619
00:58:55,360 --> 00:58:58,960
five and a half. Yeah, I think it's going to be six. I don't think it's more than six. Because

620
00:58:58,960 --> 00:59:04,560
again, the tie rod Taylor factor there. This bill's defensive line, even without day, Juan Jones is

621
00:59:05,440 --> 00:59:11,360
super nasty. I think von Miller was a little bit disappointed. He only had a 20 pitch count last

622
00:59:11,360 --> 00:59:17,120
week. And I think he's he's kind of raring to get a little bit more. So I see that and I can see

623
00:59:17,120 --> 00:59:23,760
Greg Russo coming back hopefully healthy, and able to push off that foot injury he had and and go back

624
00:59:23,760 --> 00:59:32,240
to his strong form. So yeah, I'm over to I've got a prop for you and it is Khalil Shakur, four and a

625
00:59:32,240 --> 00:59:42,000
half receptions under. All right, I'm going under. Yeah, no. And here's why. I think this,

626
00:59:42,000 --> 00:59:46,960
we said it last week, this had to be the last week against the Jags had to be the Deontay Hardy,

627
00:59:46,960 --> 00:59:52,720
Dalton Kincaid breakout games. I love what Shakir brings to the table. And I love that they are

628
00:59:52,720 --> 01:00:01,920
trying so hard to keep him involved for the late round draft pick that he was. But at some point,

629
01:00:02,560 --> 01:00:07,360
you've got to take these shots to Hardy that everyone thought I'd be taking. And at some point,

630
01:00:07,360 --> 01:00:12,400
you've got to open up the middle of the field again with Kincaid. Davis has reestablished

631
01:00:12,400 --> 01:00:17,280
himself in the in the target share cycle. We know that digs is going to get fed no matter

632
01:00:17,280 --> 01:00:23,520
who he's on. I think digs has a big game this game against the Giants. So it digs and Davis occupying

633
01:00:23,520 --> 01:00:32,960
the space that they're at. Shakir doesn't give them any real differentiation against those two

634
01:00:32,960 --> 01:00:38,480
where Kincaid gives them the middle of the field better than Shakir can. And Hardy gives them the

635
01:00:38,480 --> 01:00:43,680
deep shots better than Shakir can. And I'm thinking that this is a game against this defense where

636
01:00:43,680 --> 01:00:48,880
Dorsey is going to want to establish those guys finally. They are some of the unused tools in

637
01:00:48,880 --> 01:00:54,320
his toolkit that he has to really balance out this offense. So I'm going to say under, but not

638
01:00:54,320 --> 01:00:58,960
because I don't want Khalil Shakir to have an amazing careers above low bill. I just don't think

639
01:00:58,960 --> 01:01:04,320
it's in the cards for this game. You're going over. Yeah, I'm going over all the way. I think

640
01:01:05,200 --> 01:01:11,920
I'm just like I try to pick players on the team who have been sort of quiet because I do think

641
01:01:11,920 --> 01:01:17,040
that that's something that Dorsey does. Dave will actually did that better, I think in his time and

642
01:01:17,040 --> 01:01:22,480
maybe Dorsey, you know, still needs to learn about that. But you remember the big Isaiah

643
01:01:22,480 --> 01:01:26,400
Mackenzie game here and there and different things like that where all of a sudden, you know, there

644
01:01:26,400 --> 01:01:31,440
would be a scheme that was specific to like really play a matchup. And the reason I bring up Khalil

645
01:01:31,440 --> 01:01:38,240
Shakir is because Stefan Diggs is the only player in the entire NFL who has four 100 plus yard games

646
01:01:39,120 --> 01:01:46,000
as receiver. And so I could see the, you know, defense for the Giants trying to erase him from

647
01:01:46,000 --> 01:01:53,520
this game as a desperate play. I miss good luck. Right. But I mean, but we've seen teams do that

648
01:01:53,520 --> 01:01:58,400
where they just stuck me and stifle him, handle him at the line, get up in his face, you know,

649
01:01:58,400 --> 01:02:04,640
like double him over the top bracket coverage of the whole game. And so it's likely to me that if

650
01:02:04,640 --> 01:02:10,640
they do that, because that's one of their probably one of their only methods to winning is to keep

651
01:02:10,640 --> 01:02:16,560
to make him have a low game. If they do that, Josh is going to have to go somewhere else. Davis has

652
01:02:16,560 --> 01:02:23,200
been dropping the ball. So I'm looking for that like third option to show up. It should be

653
01:02:23,200 --> 01:02:26,560
concaid for the love of God. That's why we put a number one draft pick on this kid.

654
01:02:26,560 --> 01:02:31,920
I don't disagree. But I'm just guessing here. No, it's a good, it's a good prop. It's a good

655
01:02:31,920 --> 01:02:38,320
prop. And Shakir has gotten a surprising amount of snap total snaps chair his, but it's he brings

656
01:02:38,320 --> 01:02:43,440
a lot of utility in the run blocking game. Like he's really improved in that way. And he brings

657
01:02:43,440 --> 01:02:48,080
a lot of value to this team in that way. So, so his snap count is a little bit deceiving,

658
01:02:48,080 --> 01:02:50,880
but he could get some opportunities. I just don't think it's going to be four and half

659
01:02:50,880 --> 01:02:57,440
receptions. But yeah, I like that one. All right, James Cook over under 19 and a half total touches.

660
01:02:58,480 --> 01:03:04,480
I'm back on this. Just keep hitting it. Keep hitting it. Dude, this 30th ranked rushing defense

661
01:03:04,480 --> 01:03:12,080
by EPA. They're DV. I've got of course, I'm a DVOA guy. 31st in rushing defense DVOA. This has to

662
01:03:12,080 --> 01:03:16,400
be a James Cook bounce back game. If this is not a James Cook bounce back game, I don't know what

663
01:03:16,400 --> 01:03:22,720
we are doing. So is a society. I will say, you know what, I'm gonna like I am going to

664
01:03:23,600 --> 01:03:30,240
what do we say when I want to disagree with you, I'm going to depart depart. I'm departing from

665
01:03:30,240 --> 01:03:35,680
that line of thinking, my friend. I think that this is actually a bigger Latavius Murray,

666
01:03:37,520 --> 01:03:41,760
or Damian Harris game, because of the past protection

667
01:03:41,760 --> 01:03:47,360
and capabilities that they both have that James Cook has, he's shown really well better than I

668
01:03:47,360 --> 01:03:52,160
expected. He's done well as a personal better, better than I would have expected for somebody

669
01:03:52,160 --> 01:03:57,680
with a slider frame. But I do see with the level of blitzing that the Giants do, I think Damian

670
01:03:57,680 --> 01:04:04,080
Harris and Latavius Murray might get more snaps, specifically Damian Harris, he's a very, very good

671
01:04:04,080 --> 01:04:09,200
pass, you know, pass blocker in the backfield. And so I could see him getting a few more snaps

672
01:04:09,200 --> 01:04:15,920
than then cook in this one. So so I'm more under the touches. So you're going under the touches

673
01:04:15,920 --> 01:04:24,240
and you're saying that Cook will get less of a snap share than Harris. Oh, Murray. Yes. Well,

674
01:04:24,240 --> 01:04:30,080
and I'm saying he's it's more likely in the big clutch third downs situations where they really

675
01:04:30,080 --> 01:04:35,040
need to pass for a first. I think that Cook may come off the field for one of them.

676
01:04:35,040 --> 01:04:40,320
For their past protection abilities, knowing the blitz. Okay. All right. All right. No, that's good.

677
01:04:40,320 --> 01:04:47,840
That's good. Yeah, we'll see. We'll see. We'll see. Our friend Brandon Bennett, friend of the pod,

678
01:04:47,840 --> 01:04:54,000
hater of the bills. He has Cook in his fantasy lineup. So every week, it brings me such pleasure

679
01:04:54,000 --> 01:05:00,240
to see him root for a Buffalo Bill to bring him bring him victory because no one I knew England

680
01:05:00,240 --> 01:05:06,480
is bringing him victory anytime soon. That's for sure. I can't talk about that tire fire

681
01:05:06,480 --> 01:05:10,720
that got going on over there. I can't wait. I can't. Oh my God, we're going to be living our

682
01:05:10,720 --> 01:05:15,920
best life, living our best life in that pregame. All right, cool. All right, excellent. Well, JJ,

683
01:05:15,920 --> 01:05:20,560
as always, great potting with you. For those of you listening at home, like, share and subscribe

684
01:05:20,560 --> 01:05:25,440
wherever you get your podcasts, Google, Apple, Spotify, drop us a review, interact with us on

685
01:05:25,440 --> 01:05:31,040
any of our social media feeds and channels. And as always, go bills. Go bills.