Alright, we're back, Buffalo Bread podcast, approaching a week 5 matchup in the UK with
the Jacksonville Jaguars, but we won't be able to get there until we talk about the
absolute slobber knocking drudgy that the Buffalo Bills put these squished fish Miami
Dolphins through man. It was an absolute it was a wet market out there. How are you
feeling Dan? And also how are you feeling you were on IR last week?
I am feeling physically better. Like I am able to perform my duties as needed for this
pod. And with regard to the Buffalo Bills, I am feeling like I owe a lot of people an
apology. We're keeping the receipts again. We are we are we are we are reverting to ourselves
to keep the receipts on ourself. I feel like Tony Stark and Iron Man three after he gets
the crap kicked out of him by the Mandarin spoiler alert if you haven't seen this movie
from like 10 years ago. I have a lot of apologies to make. I have to apologize I think first
and foremost to this Buffalo Bills defense which we will get to in the second segment
of the show where we check in on how some of our preseason predictions were going.
And mine are not going well where I picked this defense to finish last in DVOA in the
entire division. They are currently and I think there is still data at preseason you
could have pointed to that would have supported that. We didn't know Terrell Bernardo was
going to be this freaking amazing and we're going to talk about him in this game and the
defense that that he executed that McDermott planned to perfection against Miami. But we
didn't everybody thought we didn't have a middle linebacker turns out we do and then
some. No one thought this defense was fast. This defense is I would say other than maybe
some key spots in the secondary this defense is fast and this defensive line is starting
to look as advertised week after week continuing to get better. I mean sacking to a four times
when he had been sacked once in the previous three games I get it's a bad offensive line
but that scheme in Miami literally plans for him to get the ball out in two seconds or
less. The fact that the bills were able to confuse him to the point where their rush
was getting home in two and a half seconds. It's what we've always wanted. It's what we've
wanted to see the bills do against guys like to a guy's like borough with these really
quick triggers. JJ I just I was so wrong in so many different ways and being wrong never
felt so right. Let's put it that way. So yeah there's a lot to get to with this game on
the offensive side of the ball in the masterpiece that was conducted by game manager and superstar
Josh Allen in this game. Yes. And then of course the defensive side of the ball with
just a brilliant defensive game plan and then spot on execution by this Buffalo Bills defense.
So JJ where do you want to start? Do you want to start with the masterpiece on offense or
the masterpiece on defense first? Let's throw the offensive flowers out there first and I
think you know you got to start at the top. I think that Dorsey had an excellent plan.
There was a lot of different things that we haven't seen in prior weeks which makes me
hope and believe that he is going to kind of peel the layers of this onion as he goes
through the season when he needs to pull pages out that he hasn't used in the playbook. So
they did a lot of extra flash and different things with Stefan Diggs in motion and different
things with different sets. You know Deonti Hardy in the backfield Stefan Diggs in the
backfield at times. They actually did some things that remind me Dolphins ask you know
this they may have even stole some some of the concepts to manipulate the defense move
people around and get their playmakers into better angles at the snap of the ball. And
I think that the team was coached extremely well. The actual coordination and the game
plan was was excellent for the vulnerabilities in the Miami defense and then the execution
on the part of the part of the players was really good. So you know hats off to Dorsey.
I think that you know he got a lot of heat last year especially near the middle and
end of the season for the bills offense being too predictable. And I think that he's showing
that if they have you know knock on wood of course if they have a healthy offensive line
if they have the skilled position players I think they're going to have and Josh Allen
is playing within the scope of the offense. They're a special unit they can do a lot of
things. Their efficiency right now is through through the roof like if they can keep this
up and I know that this result in the last two weeks result are are substantial. But
if they keep this kind of efficiency up or something close to it. They're going to they're
going to also be a revolutionary offense in the league this season in terms of you know
point differential in terms of third down efficiency in terms of ending drives with
points it's going to be an excellent year. And so hopefully they're able to keep it up
hopefully they have enough wrinkles that when counter punches from the best defensive coordinators
and the best defenses in the league come they have plans for them. So yeah again start at
the top I think that I can kind of we get scaffold right into Josh Allen at 27 just had a sixth
game with you know four passing touchdowns 300 plus yards passing one of the stat that
he's he's now set the NFL record and is likely to blow that record apart. He's behind just
Patrick Mahomes and Dan Marino again for most touchdowns in his first six seasons in the
league. Patrick Mahomes again is ahead of him having you know having his six season ended
last semester last last semester last year. And Josh Allen is on pace you know I think
he's like 19 behind Patrick Mahomes for the season so if he gets over 19 TV is between
now on the end that records his as well it looks excellent when he plays within the scope
when he doesn't make mistakes and when he's properly protected.
And I want to start with the protection JJ because we have maligned this offensive line
for for years and we got into it a little bit this season with them to especially after
that Jets game it just it just didn't look like this was an offensive line that it improved
in any kind of meaningful way. There are still questions about Spencer Brown Dawkins was kind
of on the rebound from a subpar season from last year. We had this new piece in Osiris
Torrance that we thought would fit well and he has been fitting well Mitch Morse with
his health and then Conor McGovern of course being a new new expensive free agent piece
this team brought in to rebuild this offensive line. But question marks were a bound especially
at the tackle position in the preseason. I remember I remember after the Pittsburgh game
when people are really starting to question if Dawkins still had it and whether or not
he would have to slide inside to kind of finish his career as a bill.
So the athletic has this great aggregate score. It's based off of their own algorithm PFF
cell algorithm and it basically takes this rotten tomatoes as aggregate between all of
these various ratings agencies for us offensive line play and JJ the best rated past protecting
offensive line in the National Football League to date is the Buffalo Bills. Osiris Torrance
has allowed zero sacks as a rookie and over 270 snaps. Mitch Morse and Deon Dawkins as
well have allowed zero sacks this season for our beloved Josh Allen. This offensive line
is balling out in the past protection game and we have seen what they've been able to
do with this accelerated push that they get particularly on the right side with Brown
and Osiris Torrance the holes that they can open up for their speed back in James Cook
for the power backs that they're bringing with Amy and Harris and Latavius Murray. The
offensive line really showed out. They gave up two sacks this game. It would that was
something of an inevitability against a pass rush that is as effective as Miami's is even
without Jalen Phillips in the lineup. But still this is a market improvement over last
year and we have been saying that if you give Josh the requisite amount of time he is going
to dice up an opposing defense and that's exactly what happened in this game. I agree
with you Dorsey's game plan was incredible. And the way that he is decoying Hardy on some
of these middle corner routes and freeing up those zone beaters on the sideline to Gabe
Davis something this team couldn't do with any reliability last year because a they didn't
have anybody in the middle of a field that was a viable threat that could catch the ball
and be they simply weren't giving Alan enough time to hit those routes on the sideline. Very
first tee pass to Davis. Beautiful play design where Hardy's running that middle and decoy
freezes the safety for just the right amount of moments to open up that zone cornhole right
in the top corner of the end zone. Beautifully executed play beautifully drawn up play. And
we said this a couple of weeks ago that we it felt like Dorsey was beginning to layer
on more stuff to the offense he wanted to build here. And that's the scary part for
me is that I don't think this offense has topped out yet which is saying something for
a unit that has scored 30 plus points over the last three weeks. But we still haven't
seen Hardy meaningfully involved sure field meaningfully involved. They're trying to get
Shakir more active. And we haven't really seen them turn up the juice on concave yet either
at this point. This is a unit that definitely still has some tread on the tires as far as
what it can roll out there. And I'm hoping that at the quarter pole, they're getting
ready to turn some of those things on for the rest of the season.
Well, and to points, you know, in this specific game with Miami and generally about the offense
through four weeks and we're going to do like kind of quarterly stuff in a minute. They
know Dorsey's offense, the way I've seen it so far in a season and a couple of games
works if he has two things that are absolutely critical. One is interior protection so that
there's not pressure. He has a quarterback who can mostly invalidate outside pressure,
especially if it's wide and there are rushing in their lanes, there's escape lanes, and it's
a muddled rush, you know, with everybody compressing the pocket, Jalen tends to do well and those
two sacks he took, he took them as the smartest play on that down was live to fight another
day. And so I think that, you know, if he has the interior protection one, and in two,
if he has skilled players who can catch the ball at various, you know, various layers
of the field, short, mid, intermediate and long, then he has what he needs. Those two
things combined, I think he has right now. And that's why we're seeing this kind of
efficiency is because it's giving Josh Allen options short with run after catch ability,
medium with first out ability and then long with TD ability. And it's the most prime
example of a pick your poison offensive attack, so that defenses they are facing, cannot turn
to man coverage, even if they have talented corners, because Josh Allen is going to take
off with his legs, you can't turn back on Josh Allen, he'll beat you with his feet.
And everybody knows that at this point in the league. So they have to have complex zone
schemes to try to delay his processing, and compress the roots that the the bills cat
past catchers and talented, you know, receivers are going to run. And it's just not happening.
I mean, Stefan Diggs is an absolute technician. He made cater co who look like complete, complete
rookie out there, incapable of coverage with some of his footwork. And so it's, you know,
things can continue like this. I don't know a defense that would be able to stop it. The
kind of efficiency and decision making that Josh Allen is make is is bring into the table,
kind of protection the line is providing and then the kind of scheme that Dorsey is using,
in order to use angles and leverage to make sure that's always a good option for Josh
Allen. It's great. It's great so far. And I think that we're never going to see a screen
game because teams know they always have to have their eyes in the backfield with Josh
Allen. But you don't need it if you have four yard hook to Dalton, Cade, five yard slant
to, you know, Stefan Diggs, because they can make what you need to happen. And the auntie
Hardy had that one first down in the game. That was just amazing. He caught it four or
five yards short of the six crazy. Yeah, made two guys miss and got the first like, I mean,
he's so shifty. Yeah, he's really with with those kinds of efforts, you know, I think
that that's what that's all they need is excellent individual effort to make something happen
after the catch and Josh Allen to keep to just keep guarding the thing. Honestly,
yeah, again, another game where he completed completed a pass to eight or more past catchers.
Yep. And they're not the drops, the drops that were a problem last year for this squad.
That the Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver room has seemed to have found at this point
are not a problem for this bills team this year, which is huge because that's consistency
with the hands. I mean, it's incredible, right? And I think it's that his inspired confidence
and Josh with his with a multitude of different past catchers. Last season, there was the
UCL issue. He probably didn't trust a lot of these guys to catch the ball. He didn't
feel like he could go to a multitude of targets. And he didn't have the time to go through
a lot of his progressions because the offensive line protection was so middling. All of those
things turned on their head. And you can you can make the argument and I will see to anyone
who wants to say the Buffalo Bills haven't haven't played a great team yet. I would disagree
for the defenses that they have faced. The Jets, I think everyone agrees, especially
after seeing Patrick Mahomes also struggle against that defense in prime time this weekend.
That is a defense that's just built to beat a lot of modern quarterbacks, right? The the
Raiders, I will see that argument that is not a good defense. The Washington commanders,
that is a four real unit. And they have played some pretty tough competition pretty well
early on in the season. And then the Miami Dolphins, I understand where they are DVO a
wise, but from a talent talent by talent point on the roster. This is a pretty talented pass
rush. And for the most part, teams that have been able to give Josh Allen fits and will
a little bit of foreshadowing as we we talk about a hopeful revenge game against Jacksonville
coming up here. Teams that have given the bills fits have really only needed to have
a solid defensive line and pass rush in order to disrupt Josh's timing. We've seen that
happen before time after time, you could make an argument that these are maybe the four
best defensive lines that they've played in the first four games of the season that
they're going to see all year, especially with Matt Jude on now being out for New England
and definitely you could make that argument. And this offensive line in this scheme has
performed really well in circumstances this year were if the same circumstances that were
facing the past with past personnel, they would have struggled greatly. What this means
to me is real progress, progress and Josh's maturation, progress and Dorsey's play calling
scheme and finally, finally, some of these draft picks and free agent investments on
the line starting to hit, it feels like four games in these things are starting to come
together in the right way. And in the way that I think everyone has hoped they would
for the past couple of seasons.
Yeah, absolutely. I think you're absolutely right. And I think, you know, kind of, we
can put a bow in the offense and talk a little bit more about that defense in depth to wrap
up wrap up the Miami game. I think that I'm sorry, I think Osiris Torrance pick is looking
more and more like an absolute steal in the second round. And I think that, you know,
I think Gabe Davis is he might get a contract to give to give exactly what he gives, which
is a couple of catches a game one of them going to be a TD, you know, on a nice, a long
arcing ball and that might be it. Like, and that's okay that he might be always the robin
to Stefan Dick Batman. And that that can be enough. If he comes up in clutch moments,
that's good enough for me. And there's enough other options that you don't need him to be
a high volume passcatcher. So you know, I think that that's that's looking good. I think
that, you know, flipping over to the defense in this Miami game.
Tyrell Bernard and Matt Milano are just outstanding. I did not expect this. No, no one what I'm
if anyone said they expected us there are liars. Right, like, it makes everybody in
Bill's mafia and the media landscape who spent all summer talking about a ringing alarm
bells about the bills not making enough profound moves to relate to replace Tremaine Edmonds.
It makes us all look like fools. I was in that too. I was like, I don't know what they're
going to do that I didn't see it in any other player to be able to come in with that level
of consistency and replace the condor like wingspan and shoes of Tremaine Edmonds. But
it looks like what we really needed all along was we needed coach McDermott Sean McDermott
to be calling the defensive plays. They're more aggressive. They're doing way more simulated
pressure. They're not blitzing. They're blitzing less than Leslie Fraser did, but they're
getting more products production. They're getting the top pass rush win rate from the
defensive front correct with the with the second lowest blitz rating in the in the NFL.
So they are just it's exactly what Sean McDermott used in the amazing run that he he had with
the Panthers as defensive coordinator when they went to a Super Bowl. It was, you know,
being a terror to opposing quarterbacks because they never knew who was coming and it was
never more than four people. And the four people were always counted on to win one on
one matchups where they where they had them. And that that's happening. I think that you're
ceiling you're seeing the yield on a contract for Ed Oliver. He's been a nightmare interior.
And you're seeing Greg Rousseau look like what we hoped he would look like at this point
in his career. I was so out on more consistent. I was so out on him like two weeks ago. I
was so so or Oliver Rousseau. So I was so done with Rousseau. And then all of a sudden,
ever since I said that, thanks for listening to the pod, Greg, he's had he's had four
sacks, I think or something like that's crazy. It's crazy. I'm glad I could motivate him
that way. That's crazy. He doesn't really did. You did a great job. Um, but yeah, I
mean, I'm just wrong about everything. Well, and that's one thing. I mean, this is one
of those things where, you know, you're like a you're like a misbehaving puppy. I'm going
to rub your face in it, Dan. Um, this defense is is converting pressure to sex. The sack
rates, the sack numbers are there. They're coming. They're they're starting to come and
it's real. And you can't blame me though, for after seeing year after year of bills
in the top like 10 and it and pressure rates, right? And then Jerry Hughes top five in the
NFL pressure and then all all I'm watching are highlights of Patrick Mahomes side stepping
that quote unquote pressure and like taking our souls from our body and the playoffs.
You can't blame me for that. I can't but the sacks are starting to come and I get it.
The Jets don't have a great offensive line. Neither neither do any of the other three
teams we have played, including Miami, but all of those teams, I'd say with the exception
of Washington scheme to get the ball out so quick so that they can negate the pressure
and cover up the weaknesses of their offensive lines. McDermid is doing things with cover
two and cover six deployments with the secondary. They're confusing opposing QBs making them
hold on to the ball that half second to two thirds of a second longer, which is enough
time for the speed and athleticism of this defensive line to finally get through. It's
it is the the set the deployments in the secondary aren't just simulating pressure. They're
disguising where their coverage is coming from without sacrificing what they need from
their DBs to support the run game either. What I what I loved particularly about those cover
six setups that McDermid was deploying is that so basically a cover six is cover two
for those of you who don't know cover two on one side of the field cover four on the
other side of the field, but it simulates and looks like you're putting two two deep
safeties back right and then post snap your DB shift in a way to where you have some guys
that are in the flat, some guys that are flashing into the box, and it allows those those other
DBs to flash back into their deep assignments. While those other DBs are coming up and rubbing
guys in that five five yard on box area. And there was not a free five yards to be had
against that Miami offense. Every time someone wanted to get the the end of their five yard
route, they're getting bumped or rubbed by a DB or a linebacker Bernard Milano, somebody
was laying pads on these guys to disrupt timing, which allowed guys to get to their coverage
assignments on time, and disrupted the timing of two is routes, it was a great use of what
is real what could be misconstrued as a really soft coverage concept. But that credit goes
to McDermid for the scheming, but then also that defense for execution, and particularly
to rel Bernard, who was so active pre snap, calling out positions calling out pre snap
motion for that Miami defense, he had grabbing DT's hips and moving them into different gaps.
Like I saw that four or five times, I was like, that is awesome. That is a for a second
year. Yeah, that that is a dude who didn't just study the tape. He was somehow in Miami's
play. He got a PhD in the tape. Unbelievable. Like he knew he knew what was coming basically
as to it was calling it at the line. It was crazy. Well, and I'll go even even one, you
know, one step further with the depth of the cover two covers, cover two, cover four combo,
cover six coverage in that essentially, okay, so coming into this game to two is in me into
I think is an really excellent quarterback. And I still believe that after this game even,
you know, you face some pressure, he made some errors. But he is he's an excellent quarter.
He's going to torch a bunch of other teams this year.
The top five to two is a top five keeping. Yeah, he's going to torch teams. And part
of the reason he's going to torch teams and I got into this with Steve when we were doing
the pre pod for this Dolphins game is that, you know, people may give him guff for throwing
to his first read over 80% of the time. But he's making completions to that first read
on 80% of those throws. And it's because he knows exactly where the void is going to be
in the coverage pre and post snap. So it's like, boom, hit your back foot, falls out
to the first read completion. And that's why they've been so strong on offense. And he
was hitting that again, over 80% in every game prior to the bills game in the bills
game, he only hit his first read about 40% of the time. Because that cover two cover
four to make the cover six combo, basically, it erases of avoid in the zone on one half
of the field. It covers one half of the field and has very small windows with DBs. And then
that covers the other half of the field with safeties and linebacker play with bigger voids.
So you're basically making your your your funneling all passes are going to have to
go to that one side. And if you just continuously like Dermot did in this game, if you continuously
flip the sides of the field that are doing the tighter coverage windows to what you've
seen on tape as the route combinations that the opposing team likes to play, you're gambling
that they're going to be in the in the tightest windows and unable to make the throws they
like to make at that two to three second time period. It's a timing it's like a timing based
defense. You are taking two thirds of the field and never getting to the area of the
field he wants, which is the middle of the field. Yes, only ever giving him a boundary
on one side with a big gap. And that one big gap is going to be a harder throw. It's going
to be less likely that one of their players is in that window at the right time before
your pass rush can get there. And so it makes the defense pretty infallible to even an excellent
efficient offense such as the dolphins. And they needed two drives those first two touchdown
drives by the dolphins to figure out which route combinations were coming at them with
which offensive, you know, packages of players on the field at the time they're going to
be. And once they had that the film once they had that on their tablets done. Yep, like
done. Yep. They knew it after that first quarter they knew exactly how they wanted to play this
particular offense. And you know, it's interesting. I don't I don't want to take away any credit
from Buffalo. But I think I think to one of the things that one of the questions I asked
pretty openly on the pod preseason was, can Mike McDaniel adjust when other teams take
away what he wants to do? We saw last year that this team even when Tua was out kind
of stubbornly stuck to the scheme that they had designed this year, their solution was
well, we're we're simply going to we're going to run the ball, right? And they've developed
this really great kind of San Francisco 49ers ask outside zone run game. What I loved about
McDermot McDermot's counter that is he basically played his defensive line exceptionally wide.
He was like, go ahead, take us up the air the B gap, right? And meet my friends Matt
Milano and Terrell Bernard and potentially Micahide two of you dropping down into the
box. By all means take that if you're going to beat us in the run, it's going to be in
the power run game. And he played the defensive line so wide that we were able to set the
edge and take away most of what they wanted to do from the outside zone concept. Now,
the Buffalo Bills rush defense, which I have said is bad is statistically slightly average,
okay. And it was only by virtue of McDaniel basically giving up on the run in the second
half that really saved us, I think from being gashed a little bit more there. But that's
again a credit to all three phases of the Buffalo Bills game plan working in unison,
because the offense was so relentless. I think they scored on seven of their first eight
possessions. They were just so relentless with the pressure they were putting on that
there was no way McDaniel could continue to stick to the run game.
Well, and I was just going to say that I was going to say, you know, one of the best rush
defenses in the game is an offense that puts up 40 points, because it creates a situation
where, you know, you could see it in the second half. McDermott was basically cluttering
all of the passing lanes and being like, run, run however much as you want, like you don't
have enough possessions. You cannot stop our offense from at least getting a few first
downs. So we know we're going to take three at least three or four minutes off the clock
every time we touch the ball. Go ahead and run it, take a six or nine minute drive, like
get a touchdown by running the ball on us. That's fine. They were going to trade rushing
productivity four time on the clock. And I think that that was a valid strategy. And
I think that that's going forward. I think the bill's rushing defense is its most it's
its biggest vulnerability, because they do have light linebackers and Milano and Bernard.
They have, you know, corners and defensive backs who are definitely willing to jump
up into the box and get their noses dirty, but they're also huge, you know, this isn't
the Legion of Boom on the backside. And so you're going to have vulnerabilities there
as well, especially if you can get a tight end or alignment on those players. So there's
going to be the bills are probably going to be gashed by the run quite a lot this year.
And I'm not at all worried about it if the offense can stay efficient, because essentially
you're going to erase the running ability by being up by two or three scores late and
saying, you know, you don't have time to move the ball down the field. The bills are likely
going to stay in shell coverages. So they're going to have Poyer hide, rep, whoever the
safeties are back there, cleaning up on those long, you know, 14, 15 yard runs. And that's
going to also, you know, take time. So time is going to be an extra player on the defense
this year, if the bill's offense can stay as aggressive as they are.
Agreed. Agreed. Now, JJ, we can't move on from this defensive conversation without,
of course, talking about Trey White. I know. I know Trey who was rounding back into form
beautifully this season, lost for the rest of the year with an Achilles tear, which means
we're likely going to see what kind of we have been asking for. And now I'm not going
to lie, I'm a little scared to see it. We are going to see Kyar Elam very likely come
off of the enact healthy, healthy scratch inactive list that he's been on for the first four
weeks of the season, join the active dressed roster and likely back up Christian Benford
and Dane Jackson. JJ, it's tough to predict that we have been through this and not so
long ago, the loss of Trey White. The defense has been able to put it together. And you
can make the argument that the last time we lost Trey, the cornerback room was not nearly
as deep as it is now. We are deeper, we're somehow younger in that DB room. We're a little
bit more athletic and we're a little bit faster. It's impossible to fully make up for the loss
of someone as talented as Trey White. But JJ, what do you see as the path forward for
the bills as they try to cope with the loss of their top DB?
So I see a couple of things first for Trey White, I think that, you know, Bill's mafia,
the team, everybody's absolutely gutted. It's, it's, you could see his frustration,
his pain, his anger, sadness on the field when it happened, you knew it was something
serious, non contact, he came up kind of lame and hopping and you knew something was wrong.
First I think I thought it was ACL and then kind of Twitter or X fear started talking
about how it was most likely an Achilles tear and that's what it ended up being. Season
ending, my bigger concern with Trey before we talk about kind of the bills in our season,
this is career ending, because only 40% of players who go out with an Achilles tear,
especially at skill position burst bend type, you know, positions ever come back and start
in the NFL. So it's in, if there's anybody in the world who can break the odds, it's
Tridabious way. I think he's one of the hardest working players on that team. I hope his,
you know, recovery goes well, goes famously and he's a trend breaker. Because yes, 60%
of people never play as a starter again. The highest rate of return is tight ends, the
lowest is wide receivers, running backs, DBs and LBs are all kind of in the middle,
all less than 50% return to play. And so of the DBs whose careers have continued since
the year 2000, after an Achilles rupture, 100% were worse statistically and never regained
the capacity by any metric in their career. You know, that's meaningful for defensive
back play. So he's unlikely to return to his levels. If he does, he'll be the first
to return to all pro capacity with that type of injury, which is just absolutely heartbreaking.
And so we'll we'll kind of see again, I hope he's he is the you know, outlier in this and
does come back as we've seen him and has a long and productive career after the recovery.
And as for the bills and their defense, I think Benford and and Dane Jackson are going
to be fine. Because one of the things that's been so critical to the Sean McDermott slash
Leslie Fraser screen scheme is even if you have, you know, less athletic outside corners,
their technically sound, they use the side of the boundary as an extra defender, and
they're always in the correct position to count on the defensive line to help them,
you know, with sacks, right? And so I think that that's that's what will will do well.
I think that's what we'll see as a difference and maybe not as severe a drop off is that
if this defensive line can keep up this pressure rate, and the linebackers with with their pressures
on the four man rush, I don't know that we're going to see the DBs get torched. And especially
if Poyer and Hyde can stay mostly healthy for the season. I think that the top will stay
on the defense. We've seen what the scheme scheme is, they tend to still do the same
thing. You can propagate the ball down the field with four or five yard passes, we're
going to attack the as soon as you have it in your hands, we're going to try to limit
the big play. And it works excellently when you have playmakers like Milano and Bernard,
you have at Oliver Greg or so, you know, Leonard Floyd, tear it up. The Quad Jones, the Quad
Jones might be the unsung hero of the week. What a beast. He is having like a he is having
that outstanding season. And so I think that the pass rush can save the backside and the
boundary corners, not to not to say that they necessarily really need saving. I think that
Benford or Benford's been great. And and Dan Jackson looked really good against an excellent
team in the second half of that game. Dan Dan Jackson in spurts is better than Dan Jackson
full time. So it'll be really interesting. We just know what Dane is, right? Yes. And
what'll be interesting to see is who is who is technically our CB one coming out of this?
Who is who is that that we are going to put on an opposing team's best player? Who is
that we're going to put on Kelvin Ridley this coming week? Is it going to be Dan Jackson
who to his credit when Trey went out a couple of years ago, he locked down that CV one spot?
Did an admirable job, right? Definitely saw the limitations versus was vulnerable in the
playoffs vulnerability, right? Got picked on by some some higher level QBs to put it lightly,
but was serviceable. Will the bills, though, trust Christian Benford with some of those
primary duties? It remains to be seen. And then you've got the X factor now of Kyre
Elam, who one would assume is going to be activated for these games now and is going
to be used in a regular rotation with either Benford or with Jackson. It'll be very interesting
to see I don't have a good prognosis for what it's going to look like. But I think the bills,
you can never be in a great place to lose one of your best players. But the bills are
in a better place to absorb this blow now than they were two years ago when it first
happened that I will say that that CB room is much deeper than it was before.
Yeah, you know, and I do think that the defense as a whole working together is probably the
answer as to what protects the CBs on the outside from from being exposed. You know,
as best as we can, the bills are going to trudge forward. I think that, you know, Trey
was a huge guy in the locker room in terms of bringing the spirit and the juice to and
so somebody's going to need to set up step up to to provide that sort of emotional energy.
And we'll see what it looks like on the field, you know, this coming Sunday against Jackson
Bill Jaguars. Are you ready to talk about that?
Before we get to that, I want to expend some emotional energy myself talking about where
we stand here at the quarter pole with our predictions. So, listen, man, we both talked
a lot of shit preseason about what we thought was going to happen. One of us has been much
more wrong than the other. And I think given that we're about accountability on the spot,
I want to talk about four games and a quarter of the way into the season, where we stand
with some of our preseason predictions. I have my handy dandy DVO a rankings list up
here, JJ, if you want to talk about and I know you do some of our divisional predictions.
So yes, for those of you who don't remember, we made our divisional predictions at three
ways. Who we thought would overall win the division, which we both agreed we thought
the bills would win. And then who would be ranked one through four deep based on DVO
a the best best to worst offense and the best to worst defense. Those predictions JJ have
not gone the way that I thought they would. user are much closer than I was to where we're
at. So would you like to start with a check in on the offensive or defensive performance
of our a fc East rivals? Let's let's go with the offensive performance.
All right. So by DVO a I think we both said the bills would be did we both have the bills
would be number one, correct? We said we said bills number one on offense. Yep. And then
I said Miami Miami to you had my Patriots and Miami number two, then I had jets, then I
had Patriots, you had bills, Patriots, Miami jets. I did. I was drinking the McCorkle Kool
aid and I was believing the bill, the Bill O'Brien hype, the little Brian touch, like
he's better than Matt Patricia. You guys have no idea how bad Patricia was. It turns out
that while Patricia was the problem, it just looks like Mac Jones is not a good quarterback.
Mac Jones is also the problem. The Mac Jones is also the problem. And the lack of of a
wide receiver separation ability on that offense is also a problem too. The way defenses are
playing the Patriots, they are not scared of Mac Jones making a play downfield for more
than nine or 10 yards. They are putting everything in the box to shut down the run and they're
daring McCorkle to beat them on the boundaries. And you just can't he's got nothing on his
throws. They can't put any play action into place because that offensive line is so banged
up and so terrible. All of the hallmarks of a bill O'Brien offense and an offense the
place of the strengths of Mac Jones, they just haven't been able to do because Jones
is a really limited QB and they're really limited with the talent or lack thereof. They
have on that offense. I also thought Miami was due for it down here. I'm not willing
to back off of that at this point, because I had them finishing fourth, I think in DVO
way in the division, that's going to be wrong. But I also I still think there's something
coming for the dolphins, but anyway, here are the DVO DVO a rankings for the AFC East,
number one on offense and number one for number three, I'm sorry, hang on, number one on offense,
Miami Dolphins. Okay, Miami Dolphins, dolphins are number one on offense, which shouldn't
surprise anybody. Number two in the division and number three overall in the league, your
Buffalo Bills fans. All right, then we get down to God, the New England, the New England
Patriots and the New England and the New York Jets, the New York New England Patriots, while
not second, are currently third, 19th overall in the league and third in the division. And
the New York New Jersey Jets are playing for dead last at this point. Yeah, dead last
27th in the league and fourth in the division. So I'm not terribly off, but there is a world
between being 19 and being third in the league, which is what separates New England and the
Bills. Defensively, let's rank this bad boy here, shall we? Oh, come on, come back to
me. All right, so defensively, I said the Bills were going to be fourth. That is terribly
wrong. I had a brutally wrong.
You were also amongst the like smack smack in that panic button. I was. You know, Tremaine
Edmunds leaving. I what? Well, I mean, who knew that Tarell Bernard was like mini Bobby
Boucher like who didn't who knew that he like they just literally cloned Matt Milano and
then sent him back to the college seriously to a nut to Baylor so that they could draft
him in the third round is crazy. All right, so here's where we are. The Buffalo Bills
number one in overall defensive DVO a rank number two, number two in the NFL fans behind
ranking only behind the Dallas Cowboys. Next up on that list, I had the Patriots being ranked
number two. This is a really good defensive unit in New England. Unfortunately, it's about
to get worse with Jude on being out. And now they've just lost Christian Gonzalez today.
And they are welcoming back the the Stefan Diggs accelerant that is JC Jackson by today
with the chargers. Oh, yeah. Okay. Yeah. And the chargers are eating a lot of his contract
this year to send him to New England to they're basically paying for him to play for a for
a conference rival that tells you anything. But the New England Patriots are second in
the division. And they're number eight overall. Let's see. Next up on the list, the New Jersey
Jets third overall in division and 19th overall in the league. And then I think to not a lot
of people surprised Miami Dolphins are last in the division 29th overall and DVO a better
than only the juggernauts of Arizona, Chicago and Denver. Oh, no. Yeah.
That and you know, I get it. Phillips is out. Ramsay hasn't played yet. And we said this
to the splits on a fan geo and newly installed defense, the splits for the first eight games
for the last eight games based on a 16 game season, wildly different. And we are still
in that install phase with this defense in Miami. And they do not have other pieces in.
So what I will say is that through three games in Josh Allen's career against a Vic fan geo
coach defense, he's putting up some pretty impressive numbers over three games, only
one pick. He's averaging over 300 yards per game against a fan geo fan geo led defense.
And he's got nine. He's got 10 total TDs in three games. So it might not matter when
they're healthy because Josh seems to not care what Vic fan geo seems to know what yeah,
seems to know what Vic fan geo is trying to do and does not get right. I will say this
and we didn't really get into this, you know, when we're talking about the offense versus
Miami, but it's worth mentioning it. And I'm sad I missed it under center. Josh Allen play
action is like 20% more likely every snap this season than any time last year and is
crushing. Yeah, Shalon is like 27 of 33 with 158.3 perfect passer rating five touchdowns,
no interceptions. He's the best play action QB in the league. Absolutely. And they just
need to stick with it. And that all starts with James Cook being a threat out of the
backfield to bust one like they when he turns his back on the defense and goes to stuff
that ball in James Cook's chest. When he's under center, it's believable. And he's excellent
with ball handling. He's able to hide what he's doing. And the defensive linebackers
will suck up towards the line. The defensive linemen will stop their pass rush and try
to set edge or get in their rush lane. And it's amazing because it changes the changes
the landscape for the defense to the bill's favor because when he turns background and
lets that thing, people are out of position. And so I just hope that keeps up.
Well, and this is as we tie it back into what we're talking about with some of these defensive
rankings for our divisional rivals. This is the thing that we've been saying all along
can be kind of that kryptonite to some of this cover two shell that Josh sees over and
over again. It's his maturity and his development and his patience. Yes. But it's also the
bills convincing teams that they have another way to win if Josh can't win it for them.
And they have done that with real efficacy with the way that they have established James
Cook and that whole running back room and the way that they're choosing to use them.
It makes the threat of play action, as you said, very, very real. And it makes a lot
of these DBs think twice when they're looking to recognize what play is happening in front
of them. And Josh, because the delivery time is delivery time is down almost a third of
a second from last season to this season, because this delivery and his decision making
is just so much quicker and Dorsey's scheme is so much cleaner. I mean, it really makes
it hard to scheme for this offense. Now, someone will write the bills are putting more and
more on tape. Other guys get the guys on the other side of the ball get paid to someone
is going to figure this out. We're not going to win six the next 16 games in a row. But
day in and day out weekend and week out the Buffalo Bills have a better chance to win
than they do lose because of the adjustments that they have made that are starting to take
on the offensive defense side of the ball. And that play action under center is just
one of those one of those beautiful wrinkles that they can throw into the scheme that's
going to keep opposing defenses confounded. Absolutely. Yeah, I mean, speaking of keeping
opposing defenses confounded, do you want to talk about this upcoming matchup in London?
I do. But hang on, where are you at with your predictions? I owned my McCorkle. Yeah, where
are you at? So, um, okay, my predictions were that Greg or so is an individual sacks 10
plus on the season. Yeah, that's looking better now. It's looking better, especially
since von Miller is not back and he's already got three. I had that the bill's chiefs game
will decide the number one seed in the AFC. I don't know what that's going to be. I don't
chiefs do not look as strong as they have in years. They don't get away and catch the
ball. I mean, but I will say this, though, they they usually have like a five game slow
rumble, and then they become like absolute juggernauts in October, early November. So
yeah, I will see. We'll see. And again, I've said I've said so much wrong shit already
this season. I don't know if I want to put more into the the internet ether. But I think
a difference between the chiefs that we have seen versus the in the past versus the team
that we're seeing now is they legitimately just don't have guys that can catch the ball.
Yeah. And if you take if you take Kelsey up the board, you've you've stymied them and
for all the speed that they're rolling out there, these guys aren't getting separation
either. It's it's those things we haven't seen. We have not seen Kansas City struggle
to catch the ball. We have not seen those wide receivers struggle to get separation.
And for all of Andy Reed's brilliant scheming and he is brilliant. He doesn't seem to be
able to scheme anybody open except Kelsey right now.
Absolutely. I think that they're struggling. So that was my that was one of my predictions
that we can't decide on right now. Yeah, I've got a couple that are looking pretty pretty
dicey, though. Oh, Gabe David, Gabe Davis leading the team in reception TDs could still
happen. But I think Stefan Diggs is making a strong case to break his own record and
probably the team record. Yeah. If he keeps the pace he's on right now. And then Dalton
Cankade breaking all tight end rookie records in franchise history, which at present, at
his current rate, magnified over 17 games, presuming he's healthy. He would double the
receptions record of 35. But he would fall short on touchdowns and the urge.
Yeah, I think you also had Dalton Cankade as offensive rookie of the year for the NFL
as well. I did. Yeah, you know, I just I was so bludgeoned.
Never happened for a tight end in league history. And especially with like some of the who's
the is a CJ Stroud who's playing for Houston and pretty solid. That's your AFC offensive
year right there. That dude is that dude could lose every other game this season and still
went walk away with that award. He's so he's so stupid. Good. He's very smooth with the
ball and he's great surprising. All right, so I'm wrong about one thing and you're wrong
about a bunch. All right, no, that's good. I was I was I'm what I'm I'm wrong about the
Bill's defense. Yeah, I'm wrong about the Patriots offense. I'm probably going to be
wrong about the the Dolphins offense too, but I'm not willing to back off it yet. Something
just and I think I said the Miami Dolphins defense wouldn't be good this season either.
And I don't think they will be but I think they're going to get better from where they
are right now. So yeah, okay, so we're both we're we're bad. We had some things here and
there. Yeah, we got some irons on the fire. All right. Sure. All right, speaking of I
have no transition for irons on the fire. So let's just talk about London and people
named Josh Allen. That's right. Yeah. So Josh Allen is going to go against Josh Allen yet
again in his career. Of course, the Jaguars pass rusher leading the NFL or the NFL and
sax I believe was the said that when we opened right? Is he leading the league in sex? Maybe.
Okay, I'm gonna I'm gonna Google machine that because I'm not sure that's true and I'll
start talking actually don't think anyone in that past rush is good but let me double
check. So yeah, the bills are going to face the Jaguars 9 30am Eastern time. Much later
local time in London at Tottenham spur stadium which is actually the the blueprint for the
new build stadium that's being built Northridge Park, which is sort of an interesting wrinkle
to see the bills on in a stadium that is similar to the design and style of the one that they'll
be opening in 2026. I'm excited to see that. And so you know it's it's going to be an interesting
matchup because to this point in the season, the Jacksonville Jaguars have the two and
two, they've played some weird up and down games. They've played against, let's see,
they beat Indianapolis by 10 points in Indy to open the season. The weak ones always a
player. They lost nine to 17 to Kansas City in a weird kind of defensive struggle. Kansas
City absolutely shut down their offense. They had three, you know, field goals on the day.
They played a 37 to 17 stinker against Houston. And then just recently this past week, playing
at Wembley, I believe they won 23 to seven against Atlanta. Atlanta looks like they're
pretty rough to it. There's a number of turnovers in that game. And, you know, gas against the
defense. So I think it's going to be an interesting matchup. I think that Buffalo is substantially
the better team. They're coming in as 5.5 points favorites on the road in in sort of
a neutral neutral site game, even though Jacksonville has a much stronger fan base should have a
stronger fan base. They play a lot more games over there for you. But I know I know bills.
Yeah, I know bills, mafia travels, though, and there's a number of people that were there
to make that trip across the pond. The statistically, the Jaguars are middle of the road, basically
in everything. Yeah, points per game, opponents points per game, they're kind of between the
12 and 22 in the rankings in a league on both offense and defense up and down across all
kinds of things. Their best kind of components of their, you know, they're pretty good in
keeping teams from scoring red zone touchdowns, eighth best in the league at that. They're
pretty good at keeping teams from rushing TDs, seventh best in the league at that. Their
rush defense is probably their best part of their defense. Oh, yeah. They're passing
defenses poor, except for except for their interception percentage. I think a lot of
that is skewed by this Atlanta game. Yeah, it doesn't matter. Throw him up some.
Desmond Ritter was delivering, it was dicing out hot piles of crap in that game. And Andre
Cisco, their safety, he's good. Yes. He's a Syracuse. Yeah, he's Syracuse kid. So like
the thing, you know, the Jags are one of those teams that they've got just enough guys to
make this a problem. And they're above average in just enough places to really, especially
after the bills, was just a supercharged divisional win being poised for maybe a letdown game.
Right. This is the team that could potentially do that. Josh Allen, the other Josh Allen
Jacksonville, you are correct. He had two and a half sex in that game against Atlanta,
which tied him for the league lead with Khalil Mack, who had had zero sacks through his first
three games and then had six sacks in his fourth game. What a weird frequency is that
we're having. I know. So he's tied with TJ Watt and Khalil Mack. And then he's a half
sack above Miles Garrett, who is next on the list with five and a half sacks this season.
So I stand corrected. That is a it's an interesting defensive line that Jacksonville is rolling
out. There's a lot of draft capital and draft equity that they've invested in that line.
And they have performed much better against the run than they have the pass. But the pass
rush, this is going to be another one of those really solid defensive line units. And this
is effectively a road game for the bills and offenses on the road, particularly ones that
really value quick timing. They really tend to struggle against teams that have a really
good pass rush. We saw this a little bit in Washington. I get what the final score was,
but Josh's efficiency metrics in that game were his second worst through four games.
Only only game that was worse was of course the the Jets game.
Well, and that Washington game was a bit of a liar because it was there was still a two
score game into the fourth quarter. Correct. Right. And it's blue open. Yep. So yeah, so
that was a game that was close for really three, three and a quarter quarters, I would
say. But still a great performance by Josh, nevertheless, not taking anything away from
them. But in order to properly contextualize where this game is going, it is effectively
a road game added with the with the wrinkle of being in another time zone, playing at
a much earlier time than they're used to and playing a team who has basically been there
for two weeks at the time that they snap the ball. Because Jackson Olof played already
as you said against Atlanta in a 930 AM game. So a team that is effectively playing a home
game that is better rested in a in a unique circumstance, I think is something that we
shouldn't factor factor out too lightly. The bills are better on paper. But there are circumstances
at play, including Trey Whites injury, and seeing what that adjustment in the secondary
is going to look like for the first time. I think that are things that make it really
hard to prognosticate what's going to happen. From a ranking standpoint, you're totally
right about the Jags. From a DV away perspective, they're just outside the top 10 in defense,
11th overall, and then offensively, they're 17th. This is a team based on a product that
they put on the field last season, that folks expected to be better. I don't think Jackson
ville has necessarily hit its roof on its offense yet. And what you need to hope for
is that this is not the get right game for the Jaguars, because they have historically
gone to London. And after coming back from London, winner loss have gotten better after
that as the season goes on. So they've already played one game in London. If they're going
to stick with that historic trajectory, you got to wonder if this is this is a potential
get right game for the Jaguars. Yeah, and I think that you hope it's not a get wrong
game for the bills because everything's been going so right for a few weeks now. Yeah.
And yeah, I think that, you know, again, on paper for what it's worth DV away for what
it's worth. This will be a challenge. I think that this is going to be a good test for McDermot
and Dorsey as to whether or not they can get their units to transition to a weird, you
know, site for a game timing the flight all of that and really come with that intensity.
Because I think that what you've seen with this bill's team over the past few years is
that games like this like the London game, it's a non common opponent that they only
see every few years can sometimes they come they come up flat, or they miss a lot of big
time of, you know, opportunities. And so I'm really hoping that's not it for the bills.
I think that there's a the added wrinkles for the defense that I'm interesting to see
how McDermot approaches them in Trevor Lawrence's legs and the rushing attack for for Jacksonville.
They're not the best in the team in the league, but they have a fast I mean Travis Etn is
very fast.
And he's the threat out of the backfield to catch it. He's a backfield to catch it.
They're good screen team. And I think that that's a that's sort of a weakness of the
bill's defense. So rushing the bills have not seen a mobile quarterback to the level of
Trevor Lawrence this season yet. So that's going to be interesting. That's one of those
things that extends drives it's all been kind of pocket passers up to this point. And so
to have a quarterback who can really hurt you with his legs is going to be interesting
for me as well. And the offensive line for the Jaguars is okay. I'd say they're better
on their tackles than they are in the center of their line. But they do have Brandon Scherf
who's a who's a solid guard Walker little from I think Stanford Stanford correct. Yeah.
He's in his third season I think at this point at the other guard. So you know they've got
some talent and it's going to be interesting to see how the bills approach stopping each
end of the backfield and pass stopping each end as he rushes it out of the backfield. They
also have tank Bigsby which is like the coolest name but I don't harbor that kid. Yeah. He's
not he's not the most talented but he can he can he can hurt you. And so you know seeing
how they shut down the run game make the offense one dimensional for the Jaguars and then how
they contain Trevor Lawrence's legs because I think that having a number of weeks multiple
weeks now against mostly pocket passers the defensive line has gotten into a certain kind
of rush and they'll need to utilize a different kind of rush or they're going to get gashed.
Yep totally agree. Lawrence is one of those athletic QB's that can really take advantage
of an overly aggressive pass rush. It's going to be about maintaining your assignment maintaining
your lanes and making sure that Lawrence is not using his legs to negate a lot of third
and eights or third and nine's with some first down scrambles which he can do. And that's
what the bills have been so good at this year is getting off the field when it comes to
third and plus territory so third and five and more yards. They're one of the best most
efficient defenses in the league at doing it. But a guy like Lawrence who's the same
build and makeup as a scrambler like my homes for example can really lock a lot of that
down and really make it difficult for the bills defense to transition off the field
by keeping plays alive with his legs. This is going to be a this is going to be an interesting
test and I wouldn't sleep on this game if I was Bill's fans for sure for sure. What
about the offensive side of the ball. I mean it's got to start with the offensive line
continuing to do what it's been doing and protecting Josh from the other Josh that's
on the other side of the ball right. Well and especially because that Josh Allen the
opponents Josh Allen will line up over Spencer Brown and I think that what we've seen through
the last three weeks and the bills being successful on offense is that they've addressed Spencer
Brown's deficiencies in the pen pass protection by helping him with the scheme by making sure
that they're shifting protection giving him an extra chip from a tight end or helping him
with the you know having the running back shift his way to help Max protect on that
side. They've been helping him with scheme but also he's been performing better. You
rewatched the game especially in all 22. He's actually been pretty solid at cutting off
angles and using some of that athleticism to make sure that the pass rushers off the
edge are not getting the easiest route to the quarterback. But then he's also shown
a little bit better anchor. His weakness has always been when someone bull rushes him he
gets too tall and gets driven back into Josh Allen and he's done a nice job a number of
times you know this these last couple of days of anchoring down. It feels like almost I
think it's it's crazy to say this is a as a rookie Osiris Torrance might have the best
bull rush anchor on the entire line even better than beyond Dawkins is one of the best I've
ever seen when it comes to you know really stifling a bull rush at the point of attack
and not giving up more than half half yard or so when that rush hits Osiris Torrance's
anchor is amazing and I mean who knows if he's coaching Spencer Brown on how to anchor
better but it looks like he is because you know some of the technique stuff has changed
over the last two or three weeks. So yeah that's going to be the decider is if they
can keep interior pressure off Josh Allen and they keep Josh Allen off Josh Allen. I
think the bills have a chance to continue the efficiency that they've had because other
than that defensive front and their safety Cisco they do not have a supremely talented
middle you know middle of their defense and linebackers and outside corners right the
spine of the defense the middle of the field is really where this defense is vulnerable
this this could be and maybe helping your prediction potentially adult and concained
breakout game. I mean they've got who they got they got the kid from Georgia they drafted
number one last year Trevon Walker right yeah more he's more of a pass rush specialist coming
out of they they were on a base three four I think and he's more of a pass rush specialist
where he's coming from at that point. They don't have a lot else other than Cisco in
the middle of the field they got Tyson Campbell on the boundary is one of their DB's he's
halfway decent right but there's going to be opportunities for this offense to eat and
in between the hashes if they can exploit it in the right way and it starts with keeping
Josh clean but it also starts with maybe some of that 12 personnel maybe some more play
action pass heavy sets coming out of that. Yeah I like where I'm headed with my game
predictions I think I'm going to make adult and concained bold prediction for this. Yeah
I like where I'm at go bullish. Yeah but this is also could be a sure field or hardy breakout
game to we've talked about how they've run so many of those middle corner decoy routes
to open up the boundaries. This could be a place where you actually hit some of those
middle end crossers against a team that is so weak in the middle of their defense that
there could be some really interesting things happening this game where some of these role
players for the bills that were big for agent acquisitions or draft acquisitions that haven't
quite found their role yet they really could find a home in this offense in this game given
what the matchups against this particular defense will yield. This is also a good game
for James Cook in terms of like some of the delayed handoff draws and different things
that he's done because this is a this is a defensive line that can be had by over pursuit
just like the bills are aggressive defensive line I think that the Jaguars are an aggressive
defensive line that's probably the only knack or knock on Josh Allen the pass rusher is
that he he tends to leave his lane in in seeking glory right like he's an athletic specimen
so he can usually recover from those situations and make athletic plays to cover up his lack
of technique but there are times where his technique puts him wildly at a place when
he's trying to fit the run and so I think that there's some some delayed handoff maybe
counter type opportunities for James Cook to make some hay as well.
Yeah, I agree. I agree. It's it's going to be so fascinating to see what happens and
while I should get out of the prediction game after what we just did in the last segment
showing how bad I am at it. I think we want to get to some predictions for this particular
game. What do you say? Let's start with score. Let's start with score because I'm still
got some stuff marinating in my head about some player props that I want to do. So JJ
what do you think the final score of this game is?
So interesting stat I actually heard this on one bills drive one bills live that the
Steve Tasker brought up the bills are so if you missed it here's a highlight. The bills
are on the cusp of setting the NFL record for the most consecutive games one by 28 or
more points. If they win this week by 28 or more points, they will take the record over
from the 1954 Chicago Bears, which is kind of a wild statistic.
Crazy. Yeah. So which I'm like so into. And I know this is like just a recipe for this
is a recipe for the bills to lose in a nine six battle, right, like a defensive stalemate
where it's field goals only. But I really you know I want this this record so badly
that I'm gonna say the bills win 31 to three. Wow. Okay, 31 to three. Man, you don't think
Trevor Lawrence is gonna do shit in this case.
I mean, wow, I don't I don't see I don't see a team. I don't see a defensive unit that
turned a team that scored 70 and had a chance to go to 77. I don't see the defensive unit
that did that and turn them into you know turn their carriage back into a pumpkin in
one week, doing much against it or letting much up against a team that couldn't score
more than like 20 some points against the Falcons.
Yeah. I mean, I tend to agree with you if the game is going to be any closer or any higher
scoring, it's going to be because it's ugly, right? It's going to be like one of those
20, 421 types of affairs and I'm not there. I'm kind of with you. You know, I think all
the time when all of a sudden Donna do think the bills walk away with the victory here,
I think they've got momentum on their side and we've seen even after losing a player
like Trey White, we have seen teams rally together from an emotional standpoint and
sometimes overperform in the first couple of weeks after a big injury like that before
reality really sets itself in. I think this bills defense wants to do this for Trey. They
want to prove that they are the best in the league and I see the bills defense playing
very well here too. I think the final score for this particular game, I don't think the
bills hang 30 and I think this crazy streak you mentioned does come to someone of an end,
but just barely. I see the bills winning this game 24 to 10. So I see them covering, but
I take the under for this game.
Okay. What is the what is the points in this game?
The points on this was 46 last time I looked. Yeah, 46.
So I was also under. Yeah. So yeah. But all right, let's do some player props. I want
to start with Dalton Kincaid and get this out of my system. Okay. Dalton Kincaid over
under 55 and a half total yards. I'm going to take the over. I think Vegas has him at
like 25 and a half yards. Like he has not been doing much. I think this given the vulnerabilities
of this particular defense, this could be a breakout game for Kincaid. So I'm going
to take the over on 55 and a half.
So his his season average is 25 almost on the nose. So that's why I'm going to go under.
I think he does better. His best game was 43 yards. And so I'm going to go under. But
I think that it's it's going to be over his average if that's under your prediction,
under my but over his average. So you're saying he's going to be somewhere in between 25 what
Vegas has a man, which is 25 and a half. And what I have a man, which is 55 and a half.
Yeah. Okay. That's fair enough. All right. Let's see. I got another one. Deontay Hardy
over under four and a half total receptions. I'm also taking the over on this. I think
this could be a finally be a Hardy game.
Um, you're going to go over 4.5. Yep, I'm going to go over. And again, it's because
he's such a unique weapon in the middle of the field. He's such a great weapon in the
screen game, which can really negate an overly aggressive pass rush like this unit is. And
again, they're vulnerable in the defense in the defensive backfield. So there's a lot.
There's a lot that speaks well for Hardy finally getting going in this offense.
So I, um, I love that prediction, but I'm just going to be, you know, I'm just going
to be oppositional because I can be I'm going to say under. I'm going to say he's such a
contrarian, freaking skip Bayless. He's going to continue to be a decoy. And, and it's not
because I don't like Hardy. It's because I love sure field. My prediction is that sure
field gets over 5.5 receptions. Oh, I'm totally taking the under on this. Okay. Yeah. No,
this is he's basically a run blocking wide receiver for this team. Sure field is my horse.
Hardy is yours. There it is. And give it, give me the tiny guy. Give me the tiny pass guy.
Yeah. All right. All right. Cool. You got another one.
Yeah. I got one. Another one on offense. And then I got one on defense. Mine on offense
is James Cook receiving TD 0.5 or more. Ooh, I'm going to go, I'm going to go under only
because he'd have to, he'd have to break one, right? Which he almost did against the dolphins,
but they're just using him the place where it would be most rational for him to get one
would be in the red zone, right? Coming up, leaking out of the backfield. And they're
just not using him. They take him off the field.
Yeah. They're just not, right? They're not using him in those sets. So he would have
to break one, which is not out of the realm of possibility for someone of his speed and
skill set, but I'm still going to take the under.
Okay. So I got one more. The defense notches two takeaways.
Oh, God. Can I push? Can I take because I think they I think they probably get exactly
two. Yeah. I think this is a this is a deep a ball hawking defense, but man, the way they
attack ball carriers to like the punchouts that they're doing. Oh, yeah. It's dude, I
have not seen that level of aggression from this defense ever.
Well, it's almost automatic. They like that's their first instincts. Yeah, especially Milano.
Like that has a like right hook for the ball that is uncanny. Dude, it's crazy. It's under
it. I cannot get over how fast this team looked against Miami. This defense look like we've
been saying all along, they're slow, they're old places, right? But like, I mean, Bernard
sideline to sideline that dude is a missile. We knew Milano was fast and the speed of that
defensive line finally coming through in the way that it has like dear Lord.
Well, and what I'll say too about the linebackers is what we're seeing is that instincts can
overcome athleticism, you know, like Bernard and Milano are both premium athletes. I think
they're a plus athlete. Yeah, you'd consider them match up linebackers, which means that
they're like good in coverage against almost any assignment. And so they have the chops
athletically. But I think that they are even better and faster than their athletic profile
would allow because their instincts are that much sharper, like they have some of the best
instincts for the ball, they're always around the ball. Bernard is leading the team and tackle
solo tackles right now. And he just seems to always know where where a play is going
and how to get there. And so whether that's their football intelligence, whether that's
their film study, whether that's a combination of both whether it's an amazing preternatural
ability to know what's happening on a play, they are both excellent in that way. And so
they look faster, I think, than they even are. And they're already fast.
Yeah, it's crazy. It's absolutely crazy. So for those reasons, I'm gonna, can you put
this at like a one and a half and I'll take the over because I feel like I feel weird
pushing. So yeah, I'll take the over at one and a half because I'm clearly not a better
guy. I use whole numbers. Yeah, you're not a degenerate. Yeah, wait till you have kids.
It takes you to all the dark places. Fair. It's coming. It's coming. Caesar Sportsbook
is my new friend. But yeah. Yeah. So no, one, one and a half, I'll take the over for sure.
What about you?
So we're I'm sending it a one and a half. We're both gonna pick the over. I just think
that they're just generating such and that's actually an area that the Jacksonville is very
good at. They are. They're a plus one turnover differential in their favor on average throughout
the season so far. So because their defense does turn the ball over.
Yes. But again, you got the Atlanta game. It's a bit of an outlier, but their defense
is pretty good in the turnover game as well. Let's let's hope our Josh Allen continues to
mature and be patient and to be better than their Josh Allen.
Yes, please be better. Please be better. Awesome. Well, speaking of being better, I got no good
transition for this either. You better listen as after we pull your health is better. You
know, speaking of being better, we'll come back Dan.
Thank you. Yes, it's good to be back. Good to be back in the lineup this week, JJ. Yes.
But for all of those of you listening at home, like, share and subscribe wherever you get
your podcasts, Google, Apple Spotify. Feel free to drop us a review or hit us up on social
media as well. All the fun platforms including Facebook, X and Instagram. And as always,
go Bills. Go Bills.