Alright, welcome back to the Buffalo Bread Podcast.
We are approaching the week 3 matchup of the bill's slate.
And I think that both of us are feeling quite a lot better after what the bills were able
to accomplish against the Raiders, watching an AFC win in dominating fashion, 38-10.
And we can start there if you'd like.
Damn, how are you feeling?
What's going on?
I am feeling better than I was after week 1, 100%, absolutely.
And I think there are some good things to take away from a win in week 2 that was needed,
but also we have to acknowledge it was against maybe an inferior opponent.
All those caveats aside, this early in the season, great coaches all the time will tell
you that the season goes in quarters and we are in the first quarter of our season.
And with how short pre-season is cut and how little starters play, we really need to keep
in mind that the first four weeks are really about installing the offensive plan in real
time with NFL game speed and the defensive plan in the same way.
So while I think we benefited from playing an inferior opponent, I also think that there
are a lot of positives to take away that the bills can hopefully build on as their competition
gets tougher.
I don't think this commander's game is one that we should sleep on.
Trap game is the sense that I get from this.
And then of course week 4 to close out the first quarter of the season, we've got a big
divisional showdown against Miami.
So I think there are some great things to take away from this game offensively and defensively.
JJ, where do you want to start?
So let's start by talking about what the bills are able to accomplish on offense because
I think that that was the biggest question coming out of the Jets matchup is, do we get
Josh Allen or do we get Josh Allen turnover machine?
So I think that it's interesting because in post game comments, in interviews throughout
the week, Josh Allen talks about this game like he hit was a terrible performance.
When you hear him talk about he has no juicer energy is like, you know, what worked within
the system took what the defense was giving me just made sure to get completions and each
week we scored on seven of our eight possessions.
If you don't count the nail down, not possession and like he talks, it's like he's got no energy
or enthusiasm for the fact that they forced him to play within the system of the offense.
And he was amazing, right?
Like he's incredible.
But it's funny because that's just like, I feel like it's so counter to his nature
to propagate the ball down the field, play smart football, not like break four tackles
in the backfield, boot out all the way to the sideline.
And then with one inch between his his shoe and the out of bounds marker, throw a 90 yard
bomb across his body to Stefan Dick streaking down the left sideline.
Like that's that's how he plays.
That's where he gets his energy in the game of football.
And that worries me so much because I would very much like my quarterback to come out
this week and be like, yeah, the system was great.
I've worked within it.
It was really fun to get out there with the guys and get a win.
Like, and there's some of that just kept listening to his comments.
I'm like, Oh, no, oh, no, no, like he is somebody who sounded like he had been scolded into
submission throughout the week and that he went out and he did exactly what they told
him to do and he did not like it.
I know and it really does beg the question is this a is this game a step for a meaningful,
sustainable step forward for Josh?
Or was it like, I need to get some credibility back so that I can start bombing out again.
And I agree, man.
I'm remind I'm reminded of the the blind and heat when I think the classic heist movie
with De Niro and Pacino and Michael Mann film and goes the action is the juice.
And I worry that Josh Allen is mad movies.
If you if you haven't seen the six hour long epic that is heist at this point in your life,
you know, it came out like what 2001?
Oh, no, this was like a 90s movie.
I want to say this is like 98 99 maybe even 96.
I don't know.
I got to go look it up.
My my cinephile bonafides are being challenged right now.
I will Google machine that later and put it in the show notes.
But um, but yeah, but I also think too, he showed that he can play within the system and
the system was important.
And to be clear, I don't think what we saw is the entire system there.
You can see them installing pieces as they go.
I think the deep game has to be a part of this because Dorsey and McDermott are betting
that if Josh can for a sustainable amount of weeks show this maturity and growth and
really dominate time of possession with these long sustained mistake free drives, the defense
is going to have to adjust because they're not going to want to lose a game.
It was by death by 1000 paper cuts.
They're eventually going to have to make adjustments to to address James Cook, both
his running ability and his ability to catch out of the backfield.
They're going to eventually have to play this this 12 personnel that the bills are rolling
out there at a league high 50% of the time.
They're eventually going to have to play that honest.
We're still seeing a lot of nickel packages, a lot of DB heavy sets against the bills,
no matter what formation they're playing out of, because teams still don't believe that
this is a group that can run or effectively pass out of that heavier 12 personnel package.
But once they establish that, you're going to start to see defenses adjust in ways that
will open up the the later portions of the field in ways that Alan really only a few
guys Alan Mahomes being a couple of them.
I would put hurts in that category can really exploit effectively.
So if I'm Dorsey and I'm McDermott, I'm saying this is step one, you're going to get to be
ball out Josh sooner rather than later because there's no way that these defenses are going
to want to surrender the amount of time of possession that they did.
If we continue to play within our game, opportunities are going to appear.
You just still need to preach the message of patience to Josh because he's going to
get these opportunities as the offense continues to get installed later on into the season
and as defenses adjust.
So it's still got to be patience and they're going to need a scheme like this against what
is going to be a much more formidable pass rush in Washington this week.
Absolutely.
I think that, you know, that's the thing is, it's, is that's the question that we ask
this at this stage of the season is Ken Josh Allen mature, be mature enough to understand
the long because he, you know, his efficiency was outstanding.
He had over 80% completion percentage and most of the balls that were incomplete weren't
terrible choices.
They were incomplete because they were the smart choice.
He was throwing it away.
He was throwing a, you know, ball that had 40% chance of being caught, but only by his
guy.
Like there was smart calculated ball placement, which we don't often see in that level of
consistency throughout a whole.
He, you know, everyone's probably seen the stat by now, but Josh Allen at like 27 years
old has five career games with 80% completions or better than three touchdown passes.
And he's the only player in NFL history to have before turns age 30 season.
So not bad for a QB who coming out of college, no one thought could complete a pass in the
NFL.
It's not accurate.
Yeah.
Best in the league and best in history.
So it's just, you know, again, this is the test is, is he at that stage in his life?
His career where he understands that in order to get what he wants, which is the 90 year
bombs to Stefan Diggs and Gabe Davis, he has to play this way so that until defenses need
to clutter the passing lanes, come up and try to send extra pressure, come up and try to
play man against all the short in tight receivers, because that leaves a single high safety and
then he has his chance and he has his boundary throws, he has his post throws if the safe
safety treats to one.
So yeah, we'll see.
I think that's that's the question.
I think you're absolutely right about the upcoming game against the Washington commanders.
And I wanted to just like, quick on the on the bills Raiders game, regarding that pass
rush, I agree, it's going to be a much bigger test this coming year.
We'll talk about that a little bit more when we break down the, the commanders, but the
offensive line did a great job.
And what I what I think they did a great job at is individually their performances were
better, but then also Dorsey and Aaron Cromer did a lot to scheme Max Crosby out of the
game.
They won't be able to do that against the commanders.
There's too much talent there.
But what they did was they identified him as the only real significant threat that could
beat a one on one matchup.
And they just never had a one on one matchup.
There were maybe three or four snaps that I remember watching seeing on the rewatch where
Spencer Brown was left on the island against Max Crosby.
Just all of those were one or two step drop quick passing game plans where his job was
just to delay the rush for a second or two seconds.
If there was anything that was a three or five step drop, that wasn't a screen or wasn't
an underneath pass.
It was chipping.
It was James Cook sent it outside.
It was the line protection shifting.
So they would kind of leave, you know, leave James Cook on an island against the left
end, and then everybody on the line would shift towards Crosby and make sure that on
Osiris Torrance and Spencer Brown double was available there.
And so it's like they they plan for that.
And that's I like to see it.
But again, it's kind of like we've talked about the bill's defense for so many years.
You can do that against a sub par, you know, pass or rush, you can do that against inferior
opponents and you should do that against inferior.
That's how good teams win, right?
And I think, man, to the fact that you're just better than everybody.
And you scheme your yourself into optimal conditions.
They won't be able to do that against the commanders.
So it'll be interesting to see if Josh Allen has learned anything from this.
This and if Ken Dorsey has any solutions, because this is probably the best defensive
line they've seen since the jets made me better than the jets in terms of just the four.
I agree.
And until you know, they're going to face some good D lines.
I still hold that the jets will be the best that they face all season.
But the Pats have a strong defensive front.
The Dolphins, I mean, they just keep finding guys that can rush the passer.
It's pretty unbelievable.
And then they're going to play the Cowboys and they're going to play the Eagles, right?
So you've got to figure it out now in the early stages of the season as this offensive
identity is starting to form.
But I do think we see the semblance of what they want this offensive identity to be, but
it all rests on Josh's shoulders to take that next step in maturity and take what the defense
is giving him until the defense plays a stronger hand, a more aggressive hand.
And then we know Josh against the blitz, Josh against pressure.
It's lights out lights out for the opponent.
You've just got to bait these defenses into coming out of that too high structure.
Those opportunities are going to be there for him.
And I agree with you on the offensive line play.
The one thing I took away from this game that didn't quite fit with what I was seeing via
the eye test was Josh's time to throw was about 2.9 seconds.
Now there were several throws that he was getting out in under like 2.25 seconds.
And then there were others where the routes were a little bit longer developing and I
went back and I watched some of the film.
And I will tell you, I think there was this internal conflict with Josh.
Like 2.9 seconds is good, but it's not like two levels who was getting out in week two,
I think passes an almost two seconds flat.
I think it was 2.03 seconds.
Like we're never going to see that level of quickness and efficiency from Josh.
But you could see the conflict because guys were coming open early in their routes.
The issue was not these wide receivers getting separation.
They were.
It was Josh at times still looking for that kill shot and then ultimately checking it down
to where he had safe positive yardage that he could he could access.
So if there was one thing I'd want to see continued improvement on from Josh, it's going
to be that time to throw because they're going to be facing better defensive front as we
have said, where that quickness and reading the defense post snap and identifying where
your open windows are going to be is going to be essential in limiting the pass rush.
In the past, Josh has been able to use his legs to mitigate a lot of pass rush issues
from playing behind what has been a subpar defensive line.
Now it's going to have to be his decision making and his point guard ability to spread
the ball out.
Outside of that, he did everything that we know is in the recipe for a bill's success,
including distributing the ball to nine plus pass catchers.
Ever I see Reggie Gilliam Gilliam with a reception in the box where I'm like, the bills were
cooking today, right?
The bills were cooking.
And there are still guys like Hardy and Surefield that have not been meaningfully integrated
into this offense yet.
Hardy, I think just has a couple of short receptions for just over 20 yards total and
Surefield hasn't caught a ball yet into week three, but he played 40 percent plus of the
snaps against the Raiders.
So again, there are things that you can see Dorsey and this offensive coaching staff building
toward and there's going to be more and more that they're going to fold into the game plan
as Josh continues to mature and develop within this structure.
So I think offensively, the bills still have another gear that they can hit and that should
be exciting for us.
I agree.
I think that, you know, we haven't seen the kind of peak of the iceberg of what this
this team can do.
And I do think that, you know, James Cook got a Madden, Madden ratings increase of three
or four points this week for his performance over 100 yards.
It's just so nice to see a Buffalo Bills running back.
And I know Devon Singletary had some 100 yard games.
It was always a hundred yard game for Devon Singletary on like 30 attempts.
Like it's nice to see a running back who in James Cook's ilk or Cook's ilk is able to
do, you know, he had a 7.2 rushing average on 17 carries for 123 yards.
Then he added an additional, you know, 36 yards on four catches.
So it's just like he is a weapon.
And I think that the bills are really kind of leaning and using him and I really appreciated
it.
I feel bad for him because I feel like the recipe all year long will be Damien Harris
and Latavius Murray, um, philching his his goal line touches just because it makes more
sense with those guys down there.
He's not a big back.
Um, but it's it's great.
It's great to see.
Finally, I think we criticize the bills for drafting three running backs in the top three
rounds for three consecutive years, um, or almost three years, three on four years.
But I think we finally found one who is it is a weapon and maybe, you know, qualifies
and is capable of that draft, that draft privilege.
So really excited about James took.
That's a good thing.
And I think that again, that's sort of part of the recipe as well is, is to get him going.
Um, the team star bring, you know, eight in the box to defend against him.
It's going to be another avenue for Josh Allen to hit the balls that he's most excited
it.
That's the dream scenario for this offense.
Absolutely.
So yeah.
So you want to switch over to the defensive side of the ball real quick.
I'm a little, I'm a little less.
Less positive about the defensive performance.
And it's going to start where I always tend to start.
And you can say I'm beating a dead horse, but I'm going to continue to beat this dead
horse until the day I die.
So I broke my rule before recording this pod and I actually listened to a lot of post game,
uh, from some other podcasters, some other bills, aficionados out there.
And I felt like at times I was being gas lit because I was led to believe had I not watched
the game and seen it with my own eyes that that bill's pass rush was tremendously effective
against Jimmy Garoppolo.
So I had to go back and I had to look at the stat line to confirm that indeed the bills
had zero sacks against an inferior offensive line opponent and only recorded two QB pressures
and zero QB hits on the entire day.
JJ, I think the defense has pieced it together over a couple of games as they continue to
install their identity on defense, whatever that's going to be.
So the same grace I give to the offense, I'm going to give to the defense, but through
two games against inferior offensive lines and inferior offensive units, the Buffalo
bills defense.
Yes, has been Ben.
Don't break.
They haven't given up a lot of points, but they've recorded a total of three sacks to
start the season here in two weeks for context.
Montez sweat of the Washington commanders who the bills will be facing this week has three
sacks total himself on the season.
He is he is out sacking the entire bills defensive unit.
JJ, is this pass rush this bad without von Miller?
Yes.
Yeah, yes.
Right.
That is the answer.
Yeah, it's so here's the problem and I feel like I've probably you could probably go back
and find a different pod either when we were keeping the receipts or since we've started
Buffalo bread where I said this exact next statement, which is the Buffalo bills pass
rush is weak because one player wins a matchup while everybody else loses theirs.
That's the problem is that offenses are set up to accommodate one of their players getting
beat.
They usually have, you know, a running back in for protection on longer pass plays.
They have chips.
They have different kind of line shifts and things like that to protect the quarterback.
If one person loses their matchup, the problem that bills has been basically forever since
we've long had the Jerry Hute debate about his pressure more important than sex.
It's not.
I'm coming around sir.
Thank you.
Because thank you.
Well, and the thing of it is, is like that's the that's the thing though, is that the
Buffalo bills, you know, we saw it's the jets, they'd have two or three players breaking
loose every snap consistent.
The biggest problem with the bills is they have talented players, but none of them are
consistent.
Not one of them.
I think that Oliver is having a magnificent season so far.
He had himself a day.
He can't do it alone.
He actually was robbed of a of a safety set.
Jimmy Grapplow intentionally grounded that ball.
I don't care.
I don't care who you are.
Totally agree.
That was that was a missed call.
That would have been a set, but that still wouldn't have been enough for me to feel comfortable
with this pass rush.
But yeah, he's having a great, great career year so far.
If he can keep it up, he has eight pressures a second to QB hits and two switch for an
interior defensive lineman, I think is is tracking well.
Correct.
However, from the outside, I'm not seeing enough from Greg or so.
A.J.
Epineza is like, basically ineffective other than that one tipped ball.
And you know, I'm really worried about Leonard Floyd because I think that when it comes to
consistently providing some kind of pressure, he's one of the better.
He's been the probably the best address around the team and he's hurt now and he's hurt.
Yeah, I think that until fun Miller comes back, we may have to deal with this is, you
know, probably not the pressure we need from the front for.
But thankfully, I, you know, have seen some incredible things from.
Terrell Bernard as a young player, he looked really good in that big run fits on heads
up play.
And the thing that has been the complaint, you know, for years with Tramina Edmonds was
like the big play where, you know, sniffing out those big plays and opportunities.
Do believe that Terrell Bernard has shown a little bit in just that one game, small sample
size of course, that he has a little bit more of a Milano style nose for the big play.
And that's exciting because if we had two Matt Milano caliber players in the middle
of the defense, I don't mind that they're undersized.
But they're both coverage, you know, experts who can also make some kind of big time toxic
differential plays.
So I liked when I saw from from the backers, I think that secondary was solid.
And in just in general, the, you know, the pass rush needs to be better.
I agree completely, especially with what they've invested in position.
Greg Rousseau first round pick, AJ Apena is a second round pick at Oliver 15 pick.
And then, you know, free agent dollars to the Quad Jones, Leonard Floyd, Vaughn massive
money to Vaughn Miller, who I know was injured, not really his fault, but can't wait to see
him back.
So expect more.
Yeah, I agree.
And again, the real test for this defensive unit, I think the commanders pose an interesting
test for them because and we'll get it, we'll get more into this and we get into our pregame
analysis, but McDermott against an Eric Bienemite coached offense has been very, very hit or
miss.
And very much so like a lot of the chiefs offenses that Bienemite coach that we have
seen this commander's defense really likes to exploit the middle of the field.
Sam Howell's got a great arm, but he can't necessarily hit the boundaries with a lot
of consistency at this stage of his development.
So kind of like the same way that the dolphins are going to want to exploit the middle of
the field, his commander's game poses an interesting test for that Milano and Bernard
linebacker unit, because they're going to be, I think, highly tested in middle of the
field coverage at this point.
And if you're going to play a team like that, the pass rush simply has to be better.
That's really my only note about this defensive unit.
The pass rush is not good.
It's just not good.
I also don't think the run defense is good.
I get it.
They shut down Josh Jacobs, but they also shut down an inferior offensive line unit
as well.
There are going to be better tests of what they can do against properly outfitted run
games.
The Raiders simply just don't have one.
So I get it.
I've said for weeks now and I'm going to stick with it.
I don't think this rush defense is good, even though the numbers from week two would
tell you that it was phenomenal.
Right?
Yeah.
In the 1970 merger, they've held an NFL rushing leader to negative yards.
And I know that that...
Thank you for twisting that knife.
So no, and I'm just saying, you can have that opinion because it's appropriate to question
this run defense since McDermott and pre-McDermott play calling Leslie Freezer have been in
the lead of this defense.
Rush defense has been a problem.
And they haven't necessarily improved rush defense by continually investing and drafting
in undersized players, long lean players and those sorts of things.
They really have not kind of doubled down on making a really solid front against the
run because they are an undersized defense.
They're a more, you know, finesse defense.
And we've talked about this before.
And so it does remain to be seen.
Do think that what they showed against Josh Jacobs was an excellent showing because they
were sound fundamentally, fundamentally, they filled the gaps and lanes they had to.
The Raiders offensive line is not the worst in the league.
It's certainly not the top 10 or 15, but it's definitely not the worst that they're going
to face.
And so I think that that shows some favorable results because Josh, it's realistic.
Josh Jacobs with a similar line, able to get a full rushing title last year, like, happened.
And so their ability against that rush offense was solid.
I think it'll be a little bit more of a challenge.
You know, this week, I think that Brian Robinson Jr. is a really good back.
He's a much bigger back and stronger than Josh Jacobs.
And so they're both loads, but I think that Brian Robinson might have a little bit more
juice coming into his own.
And he has a much better interior offensive line.
Their tackles are very suspect for commanders, but interior offensive line is pre.
Yeah, I agree.
I mean, when you play a team like the Raiders who basically try to run a version of a power
gap scheme, they were playing right into the strength of this Buffalo Bill's defense, which
is to Juan Jones and Ed Oliver.
And Oliver was just living in the backfield for a lot of these run plays.
I think more of a team.
And again, Miami, who right now is leading our division, they run a lot outside zone.
So they're going to be running away with all of that speed from the strength of this defense.
And I think that's going to be a real test for this rush defense.
We've seen Raheem Mostert burn this, burn this Buffalo Bill's defensive unit before.
And I think McDaniel in Miami is really perfecting that outside zone run scheme to a point where
you've got to bring in a Taryn Johnson or you've got to bring in your DBs to help diagnose
and stop the outside zone run game, which is going to open things up down the field.
So I, I did, we'll get into it more when we talk about Miami.
I know like a lot of Bill's fans were like looking past Washington and where we're getting
into Miami territory.
But again, I think the litmus test for where we stand after the first quarter really is
going to be week four.
But before we get to week four, JJ, we need to analyze what we have seen week two.
All right.
So if you are comfortable with it, I am signaling strongly that we are going to transition to
the next topic.
All right.
I'm comfortable with it.
And I just have one request for this pot.
And the title of the pot B is Josh Allen Tom Selleck from heat.
Oh, that's a good one.
Yes, that's a good one.
Oh my God.
Just calling back to that great reference in the first couple of minutes.
So let's let's move on.
Let's talk about the commanders.
Let's do is it real or not real?
And then let's let's get out of here.
Sounds good.
Let's let's start with is it real or not real?
Because everybody in the national media and everybody that has a microphone and a podcast
like we do, we try to draw these grand conclusions off limited data.
In two weeks of football and reality in an 18 week season is limited data at this point.
All that being said, there are some things I think that we can potentially pick up on
that could be real or not real.
So JJ, we're going to go through a couple of quick topics here.
And after two weeks, we're going to discuss whether or not we think this is a real thing
that you can book it as a trend for the Buffalo Bills, or is this something that is not real?
And by the end of the season, we'll prove in the opposite of how it's going.
All right.
So let's start with Kyir Elam.
Again, back to back weeks, a healthy scratch for the Buffalo Bills.
JJ, real or not real?
Kyir Elam will not see the field this season for the Buffalo Bills barring injury.
A real.
I don't think I don't think they trust him.
I don't think I don't think that his and we've talked about this too.
I don't think his natural talent overcomes his instincts in coverage and that they're
too worried that he's going to his awareness of time, time and place on the field down
in distance.
It's gotten them into trouble just even in preseason.
Some of the some of the snaps last year, I thought he was really good in the playoffs.
But I don't think he's going to be on the field because the coaches are so much about
trust that the players are not going to do the wrong thing.
And that might be the wrong like actually believe that Kyir Elam would get much better
just with more snaps or repetitions.
But they're able to lean into their safety blanket, which is like, you know, it's it's
Christian inferred, who has been a really excellent fine for a sixth rounder.
And he, you know, is coming of Levi Wallace, basically.
And so they're they're going to kind of stick there, I think, until he proves them wrong
and they're forced to go to Elam and that might be the wrong call.
How about you?
No, I agree.
I think the the bills, the bills coaching staff was really telegraphing this going all
the way back to last season when many of us forget, Benford got the start to start the
season over Elam.
When Trey White was still recovering from his ACL injury and you had Dane Jackson as
the primary outside corner.
So the bills have been telegraphing this for some bit.
They just they just like they just like Benford's fit in this defensive scheme better.
And again, it's only two weeks in, but I don't know about you, but I've watched some game
tape.
I've gone back and watch highlights.
I do not see a whole like wide berth of difference between what Frazier was doing and what McDermott
is doing.
The Buffalo Bills are blitzing at one of the lowest rates in the league, which is I think
29th right now in the league is there the the status that their blitz rate occupies,
which is very Leslie Frazier like we haven't seen a lot of exotic packages.
We haven't really seen them use a lot of that cover three with wrap that we were talking
about.
And again, this is stuff that could be coming.
Like what's clear is the bills put a lot of stuff on tape early in the season last season,
and you could see even despite Josh's injury teams changing the way they game plan.
Now it feels like this coaching staff is trying to do less of that.
They're running still some really vanilla concepts and they're asking their players
to execute offensively and defensively.
So I wonder if like offensively where I believe the best is yet to come.
I wonder if defensively McDermott is just trying to keep stuff off of off of game tape
to give him his team the advantage when they do play teams like Miami and the Jets come
around again and the Patriots.
So thus far, if you're going to run a Leslie Frazier defense, Benford is the perfect guy
for that.
If there is an opportunity for this defense to change up its identity on a game to game
basis, I think then maybe you see Elam come in because you're going to play Travis Kelsey,
right?
And you draft a guy like Elam specifically to shadow and shut down guys like Travis
Kelsey, Kelsey who puts his hands on guys at a very high rate, like you get a guy like
Elam to battle back within that five yard box before that you've got a break for the
route, right?
I believe that if this is the end, so I want to caveat this to summarize, if this bill's
defense is what it is through two weeks, it's going to be that way through week 18, then
yes, I don't think we see Elam take the field barring injury.
But I believe and maybe I'm giving this coaching staff too much credit, but I believe there
are other wrinkles to this defense that we are going to see.
And I believe that Elam will have some situational efficacy like he did last year.
And so if we are actually going to see a true McDermott defense and not a replication of
the Leslie Frazier defense, then I think Elam gets on the field.
But if this defense is what it is, then I agree with you.
They just don't trust him.
I think that's true, and I think that just a one note on the defense for a move on the
next reel and I real.
The bills have had an incredibly high rate of similar pressure, which is a difference
from the Frazier regime.
Sean McDermott has been doing a lot more putting five or six guys on the line of scrimmage
precinct, sending four.
So it's not an actual blitz because they're only sending four, but the four changes.
And so that is one notable difference I've seen.
And again, it hasn't resulted in sacks.
I think it has helped with confusion for the quarterback in terms of shifting protection
and trying to figure out where their hot read is.
I have noticed that and I think it's an improvement, the simulated pressure that the old sugar
the agate moves.
Yeah, I agree with that.
I think I texted you about that, too.
Like it's nice to see McDermott kind of giving different looks in the box and having pressure
come from different areas.
Yeah, absolutely.
That's been a nice little additional wrinkle.
It's a very small wrinkle.
A note you're saying, yeah, it's not a big change.
It's a very, that's not going to be Miami wrinkle, you know what I mean?
And that's just what we're talking about.
So all right, moving on next.
And we've talked about this.
So let's just cement our opinions now for the take universe.
JJ, real or not real, the Buffalo Bills run defense is good.
I think that is real.
The way that you said it to me for show notes was the run defense is bad.
So you almost trapped me into being like, not real.
Yeah, I know.
I think that was intentional.
Yeah, I think that the pills run defense is good.
I think that they showed they showed a lot against Josh Jacobs for me.
And I know that that again, that offensive line is not elite, but it's also not terrible.
And that is the NFL rushing leader from last year.
So I think that they are good.
I think that as long as you have Rousseau at Oliver and Dequan Jones and then insert
whatever other defensive line, you know, defensive end you want, as long as you have
those core three on the field, I think that they will they'll probably not get gash.
It's the snaps where they're rotated out to get fresh legs in that I really worried.
So I think they're good.
But I'm only talking about the starting preferred defensive line.
OK, I'm going to say bad, but I'm going to be generous with how bad I think it actually
is.
So I think like a lot of defenses that play the style of the Buffalo Bills do.
It's really, really good in a floor razor against bad teams.
So I think bad rushing units, absolutely the Buffalo Bills are going to have some some
advantageous match up matchups against.
It's the teams that are more effective, that have better offensive lines, that have better
run schemes that I think they're going to have a problem with.
So and and that might seem self evident.
Well, yeah, of course, like as teams get better, this Buffalo Bills defense is going
to struggle.
But I think more and more, we have not seen yet the best of the New England Patriots run
game because that offensive line isn't healthy.
Even when healthy, it's not a good pass pro offensive line, but it's a really good run
blocking offensive line.
And Bill O'Brien is just chomping at the bit when that O line gets healthy to use Stevenson
a little bit more effectively.
We have seen Miami through two games really try to establish their run game.
They didn't do it in a great way against against the Chargers and they had to rely on two or
chuck it up 50 times.
But they found a new way to win without to a playing as best game against New England
teams like that.
And then the Jets, of course, like Breeze Hall has gashed this this defense before, I think
like we have talked about with the pass offense or with the past defense, when it matters against
really good teams, this Buffalo Bills defense needs to step up and shut down the run because
more teams are trying to dominate ball control and win that way, just within the division.
So when I look at the divisional matchups, I see this Buffalo Bills run defense as problematic.
We've seen them scheme to shut down guys like Derek Derek Henry and have great one game
performances.
But we have not seen this run defense under McDermott consistently game by game shut down
the opposing teams rushing offense.
So I'm going to say it's bad because I think not a personnel thing.
I just think there are bad matchups within the division that are going to really exploit
this Buffalo Bills rush defense and how just tiny this defense is.
I think I'm worried about that too.
But for now, from just seeing, I think there are good run defense when the starters are
on the field.
I know.
And listen, I'm the numbers guy and I know that I'm going against the numbers.
Yes.
I will absolutely own that.
I'm going off gut and I test, which I always rail on people for.
But until they can do it, listen, week four is going to be my litmus test for so many
things about this Bills defense.
If they can do it week four, I'll start to believe.
But until they do it against a really good premium rushing offense, I'm not sold.
I'm not sold.
All right.
Real or not real.
We have seen two very different versions of Josh.
We have seen Josh Allen turnover machine and we have seen Josh Allen expert game manager
and back to back weeks.
JJ, which one is real?
Josh, the turnover machine or Josh, the game manager?
You're going to hate this both.
I think he is both of those people.
And if I had to choose one, I think he's the turnover machine.
I do think it because like I said, kind of when we open the pod, I think that game manager
Josh is it's it's him putting on like an it's him playing a role.
And it's it's maybe not the most comfortable thing for him.
It's not natural.
He's capable of it.
That's why both is the answer is he can be both.
I think his natural state is turnover Josh.
And I think he has to fight his his more basal instincts in order to to be a manager Josh.
And so if I had to choose, I'd say turnover Josh.
But I think he's capable of being a manager Josh.
The really lethal best QB in the league, Josh Allen, who can bring a Lombardi trophy back
to Buffalo is when he knows or when he can switch between those modes will without the
influence of the opponent deciding for it.
When he can decide when to like unleash Superman, Josh with great effect.
And then when he can switch back into game manager, Josh, and that's what we haven't
seen in his I mean, in his young career, he's been in the league for a bit now, but he tends
to be one way, one extreme or the other.
He doesn't didn't play a game where he has the ability to like, plod down the field,
take what the defense gives him and then just like, uncork an amazing one, except for the
one place game against Patriots, we were at.
And that you know, that's few and far between that's probably the perfect game.
So till he has that capacity, I think he's turned over Josh.
That Pat's game in minus six degrees Fahrenheit, that wild card playoff game that that was a
mythical performance that that whole game from Josh.
And Josh was just his average depth of target was just crazy in that game.
But that game, it's not a one off, but it is a game that only a few guys have the physical
ability to do.
And there was actually a really great article that I read heading into this pod in the athletic
from I think it was Matthew Fairburn, or it might have been Graham, I can't remember which
one, where they talked to three former coaches and offensive coordinators about what it's
like to coach someone is athletically gifted as Josh Allen.
And the hardest part is Josh knows what he can do.
He doesn't feel like he has any physical limitations on the field whatsoever.
But it is helping him to understand when to apply those tools.
So my answer to this is, is he turnover machine or is he game manager, Josh?
I kind of agree and I take the cop out because I think he's both.
I think what we're going to see throughout the course of the season as this offense continues
to evolve in Dorsey's second year, as we're going to see Josh do what is asked of him.
But the reality is, is as deep as this, this roster is, and it's an expensive roster to
it's the most expensive roster in the NFL.
The reality is, is there's still going to need Josh to do Josh things to win some of
these big games, right?
You cannot simultaneously take the guy who almost single handedly brought you back two
years ago against Tampa Bay with his legs in his arm and say, stop doing that.
I don't think that should be in the mix or should be in the formula.
But I think what's going to happen is Josh is going to figure out how to manage his
band with better.
And he's going to have a better sense as he matures about when he needs to go YOLO Josh
and when he needs to be Dink and Dunk Josh.
And I think that that maturation and that progression until it's fully formed, we're
going to get both.
We're going to have games where Josh is going to turn it over twice.
And then we're going to have games like this where Josh is like 80% completion rate and
we're dominating two thirds of time of possession.
And as the defense continues to form early in the season, we're going to need more game
manager Josh because time of possession is really going to matter against some of these
quick strike offenses they're going to be facing.
So yeah, so I agree with you.
I think it's going to be both.
All right, last, and we've already kind of alluded to this, the Bill's pass rush.
So the Buffalo Bills did a good job getting pressure, whatever your advanced analytics
definition of pressure is on Jimmy G, but they failed to bring him down much like the
days of one Jerry Hughes.
JJ real or not real.
The Bill's pass rush is back to pressure means more than sex.
Pressure means more than sex is what team says when they suck it sack.
That's it.
We suck at it.
Yeah, we're really bad at it.
And that's the thing.
It's basically, you know, it's actually like, oh, if you can't do teach, like that's like
a statement that's made by a loser.
And so that's how I feel about it.
I think it's true because I think that that's something that you know, Fraser talked about
McDermott talked about, but it always sounded like just such a cop out for this.
We're bad at sacking the quarterback.
And so we're just going to say that pressure is more important.
And I get it.
I get that pressure causes quarterbacks to make poor choices.
The Bill's defense is year over year, one of the top rated units in the league, and
there's value in that.
But it's it just I think it just they would much prefer the downending play, the loss
of yardage, the possible fumbles that come from QB sacks and hits over just the pressure
influence on their defense.
I do also think, you know, if you look at it from a schematic standpoint that this defense
actually plays more for pressure than sex, because you can see their fundamentals aren't
to rush wildly in whichever lane they can find, they're coached to stay in their lanes
to minimize, to squeeze rush to make sure that the quarterback doesn't have easy outs
or escape routes.
And so I think that they're coached to to provide or to supply pressure more than individual
statistics and sacks.
And so yes, absolutely, it's real that that's their approach.
But I think they would also prefer it more if they did that and like the Jets offensive
line, this is in the jets did a great job of giving Josh Allen easy running lanes, or
looping or stunting to make sure that when he's when they showed him a rushing lane,
he tried to go through it was brought down immediately.
Like that's, that's how you do it and get sacks.
And so they don't have the talent to get pressure and sacks.
So they do, you know, and they play within their lanes and they get pressure and it makes
me sad.
I know, it's because it's another floor raising strategy.
Yes.
But when you play Cincinnati and you're asking those DBs to maintain their coverage for extended
periods of time, because the defensive line is playing within their scheme, we've seen
it lead to absolute abject heartbreak in the postseason and late in the season.
So teams like Miami teams like Cincinnati.
I honestly would even argue a team like Philly, who was on the schedule for later in the season,
those teams with the speed that they have on the outside are really going to test what
is at both points in aging and slow secondary and with some young components that are still
getting their sea legs under them.
So I agree with you.
This this defense, it's clear that they value pressure more than sacks.
But I think that is a recipe ultimately for failure as we play more elite competition
for sure.
So speaking of competition, the bills have another one o'clock game this Sunday, one
PM at Washington against one Washington commanders unit coached by Ron Rivera and now offensively
coordinated by one Eric Biennami, who is someone we're very familiar with on this pod.
So JJ, where do you want to start this pregame analysis?
You want to start on the offensive side of the ball for the bills or the defensive side
of the ball for the bills?
Let's start on the defensive side of the ball because I want to talk about Sam Howell
and the Washington commanders offense to start things off.
And I think that the only place we can start when we talk about the bills defense versus
Washington commanders offense is how much Eric Biennami loves Matt Milano.
I don't know if people out there caught it, but Eric Biennami during his press time was
asked about bills defense and he just like started talking about Matt Milano.
And at first it was like, Oh, this is nice coach praise and kudos for a guy who he respects
as an opponent.
And then it got into this place where I was like, I am starting to feel sort of uncomfortable.
My palms are sweating.
I'm worried.
Bet you Matt Milano is blushing somewhere.
It got awkward.
But I mean, the poll stands, the man on is amazing.
We all love him.
Um, if you can make that ridiculous interception against Josh Jacobs, I texted my bills group
friend, you know, you know, I wanted to be a future X Mrs.
Milano.
Um, you know, that's neither here nor there.
So what, what, what is happening on this?
I don't know.
I'm weird.
Um, so the bills defense against so Sam Howell, you mentioned he does not throw outside the
numbers very well.
He throws across the middle of the field with good accuracy.
He's got actually an amazing arm.
His arm is in shorter QB.
He was a fifth round pick.
Um, he came from a system in North Carolina UNC that was like the most simplified offensive
system and someone that Dawson came out of.
So it's taken him a little bit of time to get into the NFL and play.
And this is a very complex system he has with Eric Bantamy.
But I think Eric Bantamy is a perfect kind of OC to get the best out of Sam Howell.
And so I see some challenges in coverage.
They have amazing talented receivers.
They have Johan Dodson, Terry McClellan, who's kind of something going on with turf
toes.
So he's not been 100% but still playing.
And then Curtis Samuel.
So their weapons are there.
So how was an excellent quarterback at timed layered throws to very specific parts of the
field?
He also has those rookie problems.
And this is a part that I like, you know, in the bills versus the Washington commanders
is how successful Sean McDermott and, you know, before that Leslie Fraser defense has
been against, um, against rookie rookie and young quarterbacks.
So I expect them to give him some looks that are confusing him.
He's taken 10 sacks for two weeks.
And so there with their tackles being the weakest part of their offensive line.
If the bills pass rust doesn't show up in forms of a Greg or so Leonard Floyd, Floyd,
if you pay plays a Jep and Neza, check loss and like somebody should be getting sacks
from the edge in this based on their their tackle.
So I just kind of spit a lot out there.
Um, we mentioned before Brian Robinson being a good, um, running back out of Florida State.
He's a he's a large bruising.
He's got some juice to him too.
So there's a lot of challenges with this offense.
Um, but the offense for the commanders is also pretty inconsistent.
And I think that you see the enemy scheme with without Patrick Mahomes leave some things
to be desired because he tries to plan and scheme for like open easy over the middle
yard after catch passes.
And without Patrick Mahomes, some of that stuff just isn't connecting.
And so I see the bills having some opportunities here, certainly for sacks, but also for,
um, for interceptions.
But I think it all really stems from the first step to be successful.
They have to shut down this rushing attack because if they get Brian Robinson going,
him all has one of the lowest play action kind of rates in the league.
And I think that's because he has a young quarterback and turning his back to the defense
kind of might mess up his look at what they're trying to play him.
So, um, that that's something that they do worry about, but they do need to shut down
the road.
What are your thoughts?
Yeah, no, I agree.
I think, I think through two weeks, which is a limited sample size, but through two weeks,
this Washington offense looks from a metric standpoint, very similar to what the KC offense
was that Biannemy coached up.
So they're passing at about a 62% rate on their play calls and only rushing at a 38%
rate.
But you mentioned needing to shut down the run game and that is important because what
this Washington commanders team has been the best at so far this season beyond any other
team is rushing for touchdowns or first downs on 18 of their 51 rushing attempts this season
has either gone for a first down or a touchdown, which is the highest clip in the league.
So this is a team that doesn't run the ball with great regularity, but when it picks its
spots, it is doing so with surgical like efficacy.
And this is something that is really going to test the bills if they're sitting on their
heels guarding the middle of the field and expecting the pass.
So now, and again, it's only two weeks, but how old like we have said he is not testing
outside the numbers at a very high rate right now about 70 of his passes have been inside
the numbers of the middle part of the field.
That's not to say that it's not necessarily in the game plan but where how it is in his
development.
He's not really testing the boundaries at this point.
So this really should be a game where the Buffalo bills and honestly, it's going to
be good practice for Miami as well.
This really should be a game where Buffalo can crowd passing lanes in the middle of the
field, hopefully get pressure and sacks with just four guys and drop seven and crowd all
of these passing lanes because how is hanging onto the ball.
His average time to throw right now I think is about 2.88 seconds.
So he's holding onto the ball like young developing QB is do looking for things that aren't developing
more quickly.
The bills can really take advantage of that.
And if the offense can do what it did last game, the offense plays into the defensive
game plan and that you're going to take away the run pretty quickly if Buffalo can get
a couple of scores early and go up and force this Washington commander's offense out of
its game plan because it is a team that doesn't run a lot.
But when they do, they definitely make sure that it counts.
And that's a B enemy.
You know, it's less, you know, it was a chiefs B enemy because he was on the playcaller,
but it was a chiefs component of their offense to pass first offense.
But when they choose to run it, it was always the one moment that you absolutely weren't
expecting or wanting them to run and they ran right up right up the gut, right?
And broke it open.
So yeah, I think there's a lot of challenge here.
I think in a lot of ways watching the the Raiders and Washington commanders, these teams both
kind of remind me of each other in a lot of ways on offense.
And I think the commanders are better.
I think it's a ratchet up of defensive skill, of course, and a little bit better offensive
talent.
But I'm not, I'm not intimidated of the commander's offense.
I think that they're solid.
They showed some really good things.
Broncos showed some really good things about the Cardinals.
That's the Broncos and the Cardinals.
And the continued sports rivalry of Russell Wilson and the end zone carries on for a new
era, right?
Like he had open receivers running in wide open the end zone and he's throwing in or
something and stuff like that.
So, you know, I think that it's interesting.
It'll be interesting to see this commander's offense against this bill's defense because
I don't think that they've played an elite defense yet.
The bills will be their first elite defense.
The Broncos are good.
They're a very good defense and have been, but it's really hard to be good when you have
nothing to count on with your offense.
It came out and blew blew up the commanders for 21 to three and then fell off and could
not find another efficacy the rest of it.
I agree.
But this is also for Washington.
We've talked about litmus tests.
This is a litmus test for Washington and their home.
No one is talking about them beyond the Cowboys and the Eagles.
There are three 2 and 0 teams and that NFC East Division right now and the commanders
are one of them.
They are no doubt when you read the press coming out of the DC metro area, they know
this is a prove it game for them.
And I think this Buffalo bills defense is going to get the absolute best shot from this
commander's offense.
I think the spread on this game opened at seven and a half and it's all the way down
to six still favoring the bills, but there is money going on the commanders as more and
more people are realizing that maybe this isn't a team that you should sleep on.
All right, you want to flip over to the bill's offense versus the commander's defense?
I sure do.
So I'll start.
So I think that the Buffalo bills need to see Josh Allen be efficient game manager
challenge.
I think that the real weakness of this commander's defense is in the middle their middle linebackers
and kind of coverage from their slot.
They are a they're great in the middle of the field between the numbers in coverage.
And I think that that's exactly where the bills need to hit.
I want this to be I think Dawson ox get his little dinged up right now or something, but
I want this to be the Dawson Knox and Dalton concade like show for this whole James Cook
underneath catch and this is establish the run get that going because I think the Washington
commanders have an excellent defensive line first rounders across.
I mean, it's Montez sweat.
Jonathan Allen, Deron Payne, Chase Young, all just excellent and then behind them, they're
second line defenders are also very solid.
So but the problem I think that they've seen the commanders propose is that their players
are all excellent pass rushers and good run defenders.
They're not excellent all around and they tend to sometimes especially chase young.
I think this is the criticism that commanders fans would talk about.
He tends to leave his fundamental rush lane in order to try to go for that personal glory
that puts them in a rough spot.
And one of the things we've seen the bills offense be extremely good at just this last
week is the draw play.
And I think James Cook will have some opportunities and draw plays where Josh Allen, you know,
drops back to pass and then hands it off to Jake and James Cook takes off, especially
if they're out of position and out of their rush lanes, that's going to possibly give up
some some big chunks of the yardage.
So I think there's opportunities here.
I think the bills need to continue to be efficient.
I think this is a game where the bills need to go over the top, you know, multiple times
because the strength of the Washington defense is, you know, I think they have solid safeties.
Their safety depth is pretty good.
And they tell them back there's pretty good.
Their safety depth and their pass rush make the over the top says too long to develop and
into the strength of their coverage.
So really, I like to see the Buffalo Bills work the middle of the field, establish the
continue to do some some draw plays.
This might be a team that the bills can even the bills are bad at screenplays because everyone
plays them in zone.
I think this could be a team that the bills hit with some screens because they have a
vulnerability there.
But what do you thoughts?
No, I agree with you.
And it's interesting that we went from the real and not real segment to this because
I agree with you.
I think there's some vulnerabilities for this Washington defense at the outside cornerback
position.
But the roof on this defense and the foundation, i.e. the safeties and the defensive line respectively,
they are pretty solid.
That hasn't played out in statistical metrics yet for this Washington defense.
But I don't believe that's real because we're only two weeks in.
But right now, Washington's best defensive personnel settings have actually done a good
job of defending short passes.
So passes that are within less than 10 yards downfield, they only allow completion rate
close to 69% on those average type of area at attempts.
Because the league average right now is about 73.9%.
Sidebar, that's terrible.
Can no one defend the short pass anymore?
Right?
Seriously.
But when it comes to throws of 10 plus yards downfield, the vulnerabilities of the outside
corner have really exposed their safeties to some some inopportune coverage schemes.
We're only two weeks in.
I agree with you.
I don't think that's real.
But it is worth noting that this Washington defense as far as what they've put on tape
so far is that they are bad at defending the deep ball.
I think this defensive front is going to show Josh some looks that may bait him.
I'll I think back to that weird Atlanta game that they played a couple of years ago, right?
Where AJ Terrell just like was an absolute master at baiting Allen into the throws he
wanted to take.
I think you're probably going to see a little bit of that from this defensive unit for Washington.
Because again, I don't think the numbers two weeks in are real for them.
I think this is a team that can defend the deep ball, but the boundaries are going to
be very, very vulnerable.
So it's going to be interesting to see like Josh again, and this is where that time to
throw comes into play 2.9 seconds in week two.
It's going to be interesting to see if Josh can chop that down just a little bit, because
this is going to be a much better defensive front than what they played against Las Vegas.
So I think key to success here is Josh needs to get the ball out quickly.
He's got to force Washington into getting out of their comfort zone and then attack
outside and downfield and expose some of those the lack of depth at the outside corner
position.
So we'll see if he's got the patience to do it, but it'll be very interesting.
I'll be interested to see how James Cook fares against the defensive front as well.
It's not a great run stopping unit, and there could be some opportunities for them there.
Ultimately, I would like to see James Cook get over under 19 and a half touches Dalton
concaid with a red zone TD and Josh complete passes to 700 more receivers consistent from
weeks one through three.
But I think that's the recipe for success for this team.
I think so too.
And your prediction, you nailed it on the James Cook touches.
You nailed it on the Biltswind of Josh Allen turned it over less than two times.
You completely whiffed on Jacobs runs rough shot all over the bills.
Dude, I'm just so strong.
I'm like a broken clock.
I will the like two games where the bills rush defense absolutely craps the battle be
like see I told you told you.
Yeah, you're going to just point to those even though the other 15 games the bills hold
the opposing team under 50 yards rush.
You'd be like, yeah, but remember that one time.
Hey, man, all anyone remembers is the last game that you play.
That's all I'm saying.
So let's let's do that.
I'm good if you want to do some predictions.
Sure to go wrong.
I would love to do some prediction.
Sure to go wrong.
Where do you want to start?
I've got I've got some unique.
I've got a couple of interesting ones for this.
But yeah, give me yours.
All right.
So prediction number one, Ed Oliver over under half a sack.
I'm back here.
I'm back to this right at Oliver to me is is just due to bring the quarterback down and
quite frankly, he is maybe the best pass rusher that the Buffalo this Buffalo Bills unit is
rolling out there, especially we're recording this.
We don't know what the injury report for Friday is going to be yet.
But when you've got Leonard, who is showing up in the injury report is a do not practice.
Terrell Bernard is has been limited in practice.
This is a bit of a dinged up defensive unit.
I feel like they're going to need Oliver to absolutely play out of his mind.
And to me, that's Oliver getting a sack.
All right, I like it.
So you're going over.
I'm going over.
I think Oliver gets a sack.
Yeah, I'm going over to.
All right.
Do you have a what's your next prediction?
My next prediction is hang on.
I'm pulling it up in my notes right now.
All right.
Let's see.
James Cook over under half a touchdown.
So will James Cook get his first touchdown?
You're going over.
I'm going under.
You're going on.
Yep.
I think I think the Bills and I think McDermott in particular, like when McDermott talks about
that running back room, he loves something like these bigger guys that they have brought
in.
He loves Harris.
He loves Murray.
And I think for Cook, I think for Cook to really like be a factor in the scoring game,
I think he's going to have to break one.
I just think McDermott loves the change of pace that Murray and Harris bring in the red
zone and the red zone efficiency for this Bills team has been really good through two
games because of those two guys.
I just don't think Cook is going to get a lot of opportunities.
So unless he breaks one, I'm going to go under because I think red zone is going to be Harris
and Murray's home.
Yeah.
No, I think you're absolutely right in that.
He's not going to get a rushing touch from inside 15 yards.
No way.
He has to kind of make his own hay if he wants to do down there.
I think it's more likely that Josh Allen gets his first rushing touchdown.
Ooh, spicy.
I like it.
All right.
Do you have any others?
Those are the only two that I got.
So what do you got?
So I have Trek Scherfiel either gets two or more first downs or his or a touchdown this
game.
Wow.
That's interesting because he has not caught a ball for this unit yet.
That's why I think it's you just think he's due.
Well, not even due because it's not even like he's gotten targets, right?
But I think that that he because of what they put on tape for the first two weeks, I think
that the Washington commanders are a good coach unit is going to come in trying to shut
down the past past root concepts that the bills have shown to digs Davis.
Diggs Davis and concave really like that's been their kind of bread and butter.
I think they're going to try to shut that down.
So I'd like to see Scherfield or Shakir get more looks this game as a, you know, they
put the focus on somebody else.
They need to step up for that third, you know, third receiver position.
Um, Deontay Hardy maybe get some some wonky looks.
Some of those like bubble screens or end around or something might happen.
But I think it's most likely that we see Scherfield show up because I think he's a good, you
know, wide receivers a good third option in the in the game.
And I think if they're trying to establish the run and if Josh Allen is under center,
which is something we haven't talked about yet, but I actually love that.
Like he's under center more doing play action and those sorts of things.
If they establish the run and John Shellen has some play action snaps where Scherfield's
on the field because he's one of the best run lockers in the wide receiver room.
Um, he may get looks because there's so much focus that I think that's put to shutting
down digs and Davis.
I am old enough to remember, uh, this past preseason when a lot of media were saying
because of the absence of digs in the emotional turmoil that he was causing on the team in
the preseason, that Trent Scherfield had really established himself as maybe Josh Allen's
favorite target.
Here we are three weeks in and Scherfield doesn't have a doesn't have a pass catch
to his name.
Right.
And that, listen, I love Scherfield.
That's not a knock on Scherfield, right?
But I think and we have seen this pretty consistently with the exception of maybe a manual Sanders
is that when the Buffalo bills bring in new pass catchers to this unit, again, the exception
being Sanders because him and Joshua were great.
Um, it takes them a long time to get integrated into this offensive flow because Allen loves
digs.
Allen loves Davis and he's developed a very quick chemistry with concade, but we also
haven't seen concade really, um, really like targeted with any type of double digit numbers
at this point.
I think he peaked last week where he had six targets and like five catchers or something
like that.
So I'm going to go on.
I'm going to go under.
I think Scherfield probably nets his first catch, but I think it's like a, I think it's
for a little thinking down a seven yard deal.
But I do think Scherfield's best is yet to come.
And same thing with Hardy.
I just, I don't think this offense is a finished product yet.
I just don't.
I have Gregor's over a half sack under under.
I'm not even hesitating under and I get it.
These tackles for the commanders are their weak spot on the interior.
They're a little bit stronger.
I have seen against two sub par offensive line units, Greg or so be less than Jerry Hughes.
Right.
And this is a dude who he has been saying GM's have been saying like I double digit sacks.
This is going to be the breakout season for Russo.
And we just haven't seen it yet.
And I think we're always going to look back on this, this weird kind of COVID year draft
where Russo and Basham went back to back, but you've got pass rushers that were taken
in that class like Phillips, Jalen Phillips, who is playing in Miami and was Russo's teammate
in Miami have just taken better steps to establish themselves as relevant pass rushers.
And I think JJ you've said this on a multitude of occasions as well.
Russo while physically talented, he needs somebody to take the pressure off of him on
the other side of the ball.
He had it in Miami with Phillips.
He had it to start the season last year with Miller.
I think with Floyd, maybe not 100%, even if he plays in this game, I just don't think
there is a reliable stable counterpart on the other end of this defensive line that can
take some of the pressure off Russo.
And as a result, I think Russo, this game is going to be in the pressure means more
than sex.
I think he's going to get some pressure, but I don't think he's going to get home.
Right.
I just through two games.
And again, two really bad offensive line units.
This whole bills pass rush is past rush is bad.
But Russo in particular is really disappointed.
As a card carrying and jersey owning Russo fan, that really pains me to compare him to
Jerus.
I it's okay.
It's okay.
I think he gets over.
I think that he shows up because he usually has one.
You know, usually has one game in the season where where he gets like he has a dominant
performance.
I think this might be it.
Go over.
I think he gets a set this game.
And I'm very hopeful of it.
How about score predictions?
You ready for those?
I am ready for those.
All right.
So the as I mentioned, this game opened in some sports books at seven and a half favoring
the bills that number is down to six.
I actually this is one of the few games where I think the bills don't cover.
I think this is going to be a sneaky tough trap game for them.
Hopefully Buffalo is not overlooking this game to week four in Miami because the bills
do not want to go back home one and two staring down the barrel of one and three to end the
first quarter of their season against Miami.
So this feels like a game that the bills need to kind of keep pace in the division and keep
pace in the conference, but I think it's going to be close because Washington this is a
prove it game for them to.
So my final score prediction here is going to be 28 to 20.
Excuse me.
Sorry, I'm coughing for some reason.
2724 bills.
Yeah, you have it pretty close.
So I I have the same exact bill score for for the bills, but I don't think that the commanders
get to 24.
I think that the the commanders get one less touchdown.
I think it's 2717.
Okay.
And I think for the majority of the game, it's 2710.
So you've got the bills covering this.
Yeah, I've got the bills covering and I also have the bills controlling this game.
I think that I don't think it's going to 40, you know, 40 minutes, 20 minutes of time possession
like last week.
But I do think that they're going to kind of they're going to have too much for this Washington
commanders defense to handle.
If Josh Allen is playing game manager, Josh, and they're getting the the ball out fast enough
to completely neuter that pass rush.
And I just think the reason I have it 2717 is I don't think that the commanders offense
is going to have enough enough of a counter punch to the Buffalo Bills and coverage.
I think the Buffalo Bills are one of the better teams in the NFL when it comes to coverage
covering pass and I think that they'll even if they don't have the pass rush, they will
have the coverage necessary to shut down this this, you know, commanders offensive attack.
Again, I just can't the statistics of Sean McDermott off our defense against a rookie
or young first year quarterback is so overwhelmingly positive for the bills that, you know, even
if Ron Rivera has more familiarity and there's some other things and Eric Biafemi has more
familiarity with the way that the bills play defense.
I don't think that there's going to be enough success for Sam Howell against the bills defense
to to really, you know, vault the commanders into position.
I don't think the bills are going to overlook this team because I do think that they got
slapped across the face against the Jets.
And so they are still in the humble and hungry mode.
And again, Sam Howell as a new quarterback in the league, I think we'll struggle against
the defense.
All right.
So you are taking bills to cover, but you're taking the under on the points.
I'm taking the bills not to cover, but I'm taking the over on the points.
All right.
So you've got the under I've got the over and JJ.
The other thing that is over is this podcast.
So you've been crushing the transitions, you know, dude, I'm telling you, I'm telling
you, I'm bringing my A game this year with these transitions.
So JJ, good potting with you as always.
Bill's mafia.
Thanks for listening.
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And as always, go bills.