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Alright, welcome back to the Buffalo Bread Podcast.

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We are approaching the week 3 matchup of the bill's slate.

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And I think that both of us are feeling quite a lot better after what the bills were able

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to accomplish against the Raiders, watching an AFC win in dominating fashion, 38-10.

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And we can start there if you'd like.

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Damn, how are you feeling?

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What's going on?

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I am feeling better than I was after week 1, 100%, absolutely.

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And I think there are some good things to take away from a win in week 2 that was needed,

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but also we have to acknowledge it was against maybe an inferior opponent.

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All those caveats aside, this early in the season, great coaches all the time will tell

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you that the season goes in quarters and we are in the first quarter of our season.

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And with how short pre-season is cut and how little starters play, we really need to keep

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in mind that the first four weeks are really about installing the offensive plan in real

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time with NFL game speed and the defensive plan in the same way.

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So while I think we benefited from playing an inferior opponent, I also think that there

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are a lot of positives to take away that the bills can hopefully build on as their competition

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gets tougher.

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I don't think this commander's game is one that we should sleep on.

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Trap game is the sense that I get from this.

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And then of course week 4 to close out the first quarter of the season, we've got a big

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divisional showdown against Miami.

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So I think there are some great things to take away from this game offensively and defensively.

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JJ, where do you want to start?

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So let's start by talking about what the bills are able to accomplish on offense because

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I think that that was the biggest question coming out of the Jets matchup is, do we get

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Josh Allen or do we get Josh Allen turnover machine?

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So I think that it's interesting because in post game comments, in interviews throughout

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the week, Josh Allen talks about this game like he hit was a terrible performance.

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When you hear him talk about he has no juicer energy is like, you know, what worked within

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the system took what the defense was giving me just made sure to get completions and each

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week we scored on seven of our eight possessions.

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If you don't count the nail down, not possession and like he talks, it's like he's got no energy

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or enthusiasm for the fact that they forced him to play within the system of the offense.

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And he was amazing, right?

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Like he's incredible.

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But it's funny because that's just like, I feel like it's so counter to his nature

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to propagate the ball down the field, play smart football, not like break four tackles

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in the backfield, boot out all the way to the sideline.

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And then with one inch between his his shoe and the out of bounds marker, throw a 90 yard

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bomb across his body to Stefan Dick streaking down the left sideline.

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Like that's that's how he plays.

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That's where he gets his energy in the game of football.

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And that worries me so much because I would very much like my quarterback to come out

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this week and be like, yeah, the system was great.

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I've worked within it.

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It was really fun to get out there with the guys and get a win.

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Like, and there's some of that just kept listening to his comments.

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I'm like, Oh, no, oh, no, no, like he is somebody who sounded like he had been scolded into

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submission throughout the week and that he went out and he did exactly what they told

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him to do and he did not like it.

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I know and it really does beg the question is this a is this game a step for a meaningful,

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sustainable step forward for Josh?

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Or was it like, I need to get some credibility back so that I can start bombing out again.

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And I agree, man.

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I'm remind I'm reminded of the the blind and heat when I think the classic heist movie

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with De Niro and Pacino and Michael Mann film and goes the action is the juice.

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And I worry that Josh Allen is mad movies.

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If you if you haven't seen the six hour long epic that is heist at this point in your life,

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you know, it came out like what 2001?

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Oh, no, this was like a 90s movie.

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I want to say this is like 98 99 maybe even 96.

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I don't know.

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I got to go look it up.

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My my cinephile bonafides are being challenged right now.

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I will Google machine that later and put it in the show notes.

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But um, but yeah, but I also think too, he showed that he can play within the system and

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the system was important.

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And to be clear, I don't think what we saw is the entire system there.

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You can see them installing pieces as they go.

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I think the deep game has to be a part of this because Dorsey and McDermott are betting

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that if Josh can for a sustainable amount of weeks show this maturity and growth and

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really dominate time of possession with these long sustained mistake free drives, the defense

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is going to have to adjust because they're not going to want to lose a game.

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It was by death by 1000 paper cuts.

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They're eventually going to have to make adjustments to to address James Cook, both

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his running ability and his ability to catch out of the backfield.

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They're going to eventually have to play this this 12 personnel that the bills are rolling

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out there at a league high 50% of the time.

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They're eventually going to have to play that honest.

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We're still seeing a lot of nickel packages, a lot of DB heavy sets against the bills,

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no matter what formation they're playing out of, because teams still don't believe that

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this is a group that can run or effectively pass out of that heavier 12 personnel package.

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But once they establish that, you're going to start to see defenses adjust in ways that

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will open up the the later portions of the field in ways that Alan really only a few

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guys Alan Mahomes being a couple of them.

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I would put hurts in that category can really exploit effectively.

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So if I'm Dorsey and I'm McDermott, I'm saying this is step one, you're going to get to be

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ball out Josh sooner rather than later because there's no way that these defenses are going

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to want to surrender the amount of time of possession that they did.

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If we continue to play within our game, opportunities are going to appear.

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You just still need to preach the message of patience to Josh because he's going to

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get these opportunities as the offense continues to get installed later on into the season

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and as defenses adjust.

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So it's still got to be patience and they're going to need a scheme like this against what

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is going to be a much more formidable pass rush in Washington this week.

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Absolutely.

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I think that, you know, that's the thing is, it's, is that's the question that we ask

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this at this stage of the season is Ken Josh Allen mature, be mature enough to understand

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the long because he, you know, his efficiency was outstanding.

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He had over 80% completion percentage and most of the balls that were incomplete weren't

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terrible choices.

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They were incomplete because they were the smart choice.

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He was throwing it away.

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He was throwing a, you know, ball that had 40% chance of being caught, but only by his

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guy.

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Like there was smart calculated ball placement, which we don't often see in that level of

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consistency throughout a whole.

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He, you know, everyone's probably seen the stat by now, but Josh Allen at like 27 years

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old has five career games with 80% completions or better than three touchdown passes.

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And he's the only player in NFL history to have before turns age 30 season.

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So not bad for a QB who coming out of college, no one thought could complete a pass in the

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NFL.

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It's not accurate.

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Yeah.

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Best in the league and best in history.

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So it's just, you know, again, this is the test is, is he at that stage in his life?

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His career where he understands that in order to get what he wants, which is the 90 year

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bombs to Stefan Diggs and Gabe Davis, he has to play this way so that until defenses need

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to clutter the passing lanes, come up and try to send extra pressure, come up and try to

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play man against all the short in tight receivers, because that leaves a single high safety and

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then he has his chance and he has his boundary throws, he has his post throws if the safe

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safety treats to one.

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So yeah, we'll see.

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I think that's that's the question.

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I think you're absolutely right about the upcoming game against the Washington commanders.

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And I wanted to just like, quick on the on the bills Raiders game, regarding that pass

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rush, I agree, it's going to be a much bigger test this coming year.

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We'll talk about that a little bit more when we break down the, the commanders, but the

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offensive line did a great job.

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And what I what I think they did a great job at is individually their performances were

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better, but then also Dorsey and Aaron Cromer did a lot to scheme Max Crosby out of the

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game.

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They won't be able to do that against the commanders.

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There's too much talent there.

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But what they did was they identified him as the only real significant threat that could

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beat a one on one matchup.

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And they just never had a one on one matchup.

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There were maybe three or four snaps that I remember watching seeing on the rewatch where

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Spencer Brown was left on the island against Max Crosby.

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Just all of those were one or two step drop quick passing game plans where his job was

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just to delay the rush for a second or two seconds.

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If there was anything that was a three or five step drop, that wasn't a screen or wasn't

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an underneath pass.

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It was chipping.

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It was James Cook sent it outside.

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It was the line protection shifting.

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So they would kind of leave, you know, leave James Cook on an island against the left

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end, and then everybody on the line would shift towards Crosby and make sure that on

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Osiris Torrance and Spencer Brown double was available there.

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And so it's like they they plan for that.

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And that's I like to see it.

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But again, it's kind of like we've talked about the bill's defense for so many years.

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You can do that against a sub par, you know, pass or rush, you can do that against inferior

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opponents and you should do that against inferior.

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That's how good teams win, right?

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And I think, man, to the fact that you're just better than everybody.

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And you scheme your yourself into optimal conditions.

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They won't be able to do that against the commanders.

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So it'll be interesting to see if Josh Allen has learned anything from this.

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This and if Ken Dorsey has any solutions, because this is probably the best defensive

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line they've seen since the jets made me better than the jets in terms of just the four.

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I agree.

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And until you know, they're going to face some good D lines.

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I still hold that the jets will be the best that they face all season.

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But the Pats have a strong defensive front.

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The Dolphins, I mean, they just keep finding guys that can rush the passer.

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It's pretty unbelievable.

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And then they're going to play the Cowboys and they're going to play the Eagles, right?

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So you've got to figure it out now in the early stages of the season as this offensive

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identity is starting to form.

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But I do think we see the semblance of what they want this offensive identity to be, but

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it all rests on Josh's shoulders to take that next step in maturity and take what the defense

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is giving him until the defense plays a stronger hand, a more aggressive hand.

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And then we know Josh against the blitz, Josh against pressure.

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It's lights out lights out for the opponent.

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You've just got to bait these defenses into coming out of that too high structure.

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Those opportunities are going to be there for him.

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And I agree with you on the offensive line play.

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The one thing I took away from this game that didn't quite fit with what I was seeing via

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the eye test was Josh's time to throw was about 2.9 seconds.

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Now there were several throws that he was getting out in under like 2.25 seconds.

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And then there were others where the routes were a little bit longer developing and I

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went back and I watched some of the film.

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And I will tell you, I think there was this internal conflict with Josh.

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Like 2.9 seconds is good, but it's not like two levels who was getting out in week two,

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I think passes an almost two seconds flat.

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I think it was 2.03 seconds.

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Like we're never going to see that level of quickness and efficiency from Josh.

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But you could see the conflict because guys were coming open early in their routes.

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The issue was not these wide receivers getting separation.

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They were.

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It was Josh at times still looking for that kill shot and then ultimately checking it down

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to where he had safe positive yardage that he could he could access.

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So if there was one thing I'd want to see continued improvement on from Josh, it's going

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to be that time to throw because they're going to be facing better defensive front as we

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have said, where that quickness and reading the defense post snap and identifying where

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your open windows are going to be is going to be essential in limiting the pass rush.

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In the past, Josh has been able to use his legs to mitigate a lot of pass rush issues

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from playing behind what has been a subpar defensive line.

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Now it's going to have to be his decision making and his point guard ability to spread

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the ball out.

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Outside of that, he did everything that we know is in the recipe for a bill's success,

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including distributing the ball to nine plus pass catchers.

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Ever I see Reggie Gilliam Gilliam with a reception in the box where I'm like, the bills were

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cooking today, right?

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The bills were cooking.

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And there are still guys like Hardy and Surefield that have not been meaningfully integrated

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into this offense yet.

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Hardy, I think just has a couple of short receptions for just over 20 yards total and

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Surefield hasn't caught a ball yet into week three, but he played 40 percent plus of the

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snaps against the Raiders.

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So again, there are things that you can see Dorsey and this offensive coaching staff building

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toward and there's going to be more and more that they're going to fold into the game plan

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as Josh continues to mature and develop within this structure.

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So I think offensively, the bills still have another gear that they can hit and that should

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be exciting for us.

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I agree.

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I think that, you know, we haven't seen the kind of peak of the iceberg of what this

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this team can do.

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And I do think that, you know, James Cook got a Madden, Madden ratings increase of three

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or four points this week for his performance over 100 yards.

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It's just so nice to see a Buffalo Bills running back.

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And I know Devon Singletary had some 100 yard games.

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It was always a hundred yard game for Devon Singletary on like 30 attempts.

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Like it's nice to see a running back who in James Cook's ilk or Cook's ilk is able to

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do, you know, he had a 7.2 rushing average on 17 carries for 123 yards.

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Then he added an additional, you know, 36 yards on four catches.

229
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So it's just like he is a weapon.

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And I think that the bills are really kind of leaning and using him and I really appreciated

231
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it.

232
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I feel bad for him because I feel like the recipe all year long will be Damien Harris

233
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and Latavius Murray, um, philching his his goal line touches just because it makes more

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sense with those guys down there.

235
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He's not a big back.

236
00:15:13,240 --> 00:15:15,320
Um, but it's it's great.

237
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It's great to see.

238
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Finally, I think we criticize the bills for drafting three running backs in the top three

239
00:15:20,360 --> 00:15:26,360
rounds for three consecutive years, um, or almost three years, three on four years.

240
00:15:26,360 --> 00:15:31,800
But I think we finally found one who is it is a weapon and maybe, you know, qualifies

241
00:15:31,800 --> 00:15:34,960
and is capable of that draft, that draft privilege.

242
00:15:34,960 --> 00:15:37,160
So really excited about James took.

243
00:15:37,160 --> 00:15:38,160
That's a good thing.

244
00:15:38,160 --> 00:15:42,800
And I think that again, that's sort of part of the recipe as well is, is to get him going.

245
00:15:42,800 --> 00:15:48,440
Um, the team star bring, you know, eight in the box to defend against him.

246
00:15:48,440 --> 00:15:52,000
It's going to be another avenue for Josh Allen to hit the balls that he's most excited

247
00:15:52,000 --> 00:15:53,000
it.

248
00:15:53,000 --> 00:15:55,040
That's the dream scenario for this offense.

249
00:15:55,040 --> 00:15:56,040
Absolutely.

250
00:15:56,040 --> 00:15:57,040
Absolutely.

251
00:15:57,040 --> 00:15:58,040
So yeah.

252
00:15:58,040 --> 00:15:59,560
So you want to switch over to the defensive side of the ball real quick.

253
00:15:59,560 --> 00:16:01,760
I'm a little, I'm a little less.

254
00:16:01,760 --> 00:16:05,440
Less positive about the defensive performance.

255
00:16:05,440 --> 00:16:07,920
And it's going to start where I always tend to start.

256
00:16:07,920 --> 00:16:10,960
And you can say I'm beating a dead horse, but I'm going to continue to beat this dead

257
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horse until the day I die.

258
00:16:13,000 --> 00:16:18,720
So I broke my rule before recording this pod and I actually listened to a lot of post game,

259
00:16:18,720 --> 00:16:23,240
uh, from some other podcasters, some other bills, aficionados out there.

260
00:16:23,240 --> 00:16:29,080
And I felt like at times I was being gas lit because I was led to believe had I not watched

261
00:16:29,080 --> 00:16:33,880
the game and seen it with my own eyes that that bill's pass rush was tremendously effective

262
00:16:33,880 --> 00:16:35,680
against Jimmy Garoppolo.

263
00:16:35,680 --> 00:16:41,320
So I had to go back and I had to look at the stat line to confirm that indeed the bills

264
00:16:41,320 --> 00:16:48,920
had zero sacks against an inferior offensive line opponent and only recorded two QB pressures

265
00:16:48,920 --> 00:16:52,880
and zero QB hits on the entire day.

266
00:16:52,880 --> 00:16:58,760
JJ, I think the defense has pieced it together over a couple of games as they continue to

267
00:16:58,760 --> 00:17:02,720
install their identity on defense, whatever that's going to be.

268
00:17:02,720 --> 00:17:06,840
So the same grace I give to the offense, I'm going to give to the defense, but through

269
00:17:06,840 --> 00:17:13,440
two games against inferior offensive lines and inferior offensive units, the Buffalo

270
00:17:13,440 --> 00:17:14,440
bills defense.

271
00:17:14,440 --> 00:17:15,440
Yes, has been Ben.

272
00:17:15,440 --> 00:17:16,440
Don't break.

273
00:17:16,440 --> 00:17:20,440
They haven't given up a lot of points, but they've recorded a total of three sacks to

274
00:17:20,440 --> 00:17:23,440
start the season here in two weeks for context.

275
00:17:23,440 --> 00:17:28,200
Montez sweat of the Washington commanders who the bills will be facing this week has three

276
00:17:28,200 --> 00:17:30,680
sacks total himself on the season.

277
00:17:30,680 --> 00:17:35,640
He is he is out sacking the entire bills defensive unit.

278
00:17:35,640 --> 00:17:41,160
JJ, is this pass rush this bad without von Miller?

279
00:17:41,160 --> 00:17:42,160
Yes.

280
00:17:42,160 --> 00:17:43,160
Yeah, yes.

281
00:17:43,160 --> 00:17:44,160
Right.

282
00:17:44,160 --> 00:17:45,160
That is the answer.

283
00:17:45,160 --> 00:17:49,960
Yeah, it's so here's the problem and I feel like I've probably you could probably go back

284
00:17:49,960 --> 00:17:54,960
and find a different pod either when we were keeping the receipts or since we've started

285
00:17:54,960 --> 00:17:59,840
Buffalo bread where I said this exact next statement, which is the Buffalo bills pass

286
00:17:59,840 --> 00:18:08,600
rush is weak because one player wins a matchup while everybody else loses theirs.

287
00:18:08,600 --> 00:18:14,080
That's the problem is that offenses are set up to accommodate one of their players getting

288
00:18:14,080 --> 00:18:15,080
beat.

289
00:18:15,080 --> 00:18:17,680
They usually have, you know, a running back in for protection on longer pass plays.

290
00:18:17,680 --> 00:18:18,840
They have chips.

291
00:18:18,840 --> 00:18:23,520
They have different kind of line shifts and things like that to protect the quarterback.

292
00:18:23,520 --> 00:18:28,680
If one person loses their matchup, the problem that bills has been basically forever since

293
00:18:28,680 --> 00:18:34,400
we've long had the Jerry Hute debate about his pressure more important than sex.

294
00:18:34,400 --> 00:18:35,400
It's not.

295
00:18:35,400 --> 00:18:37,360
I'm coming around sir.

296
00:18:37,360 --> 00:18:38,360
Thank you.

297
00:18:38,360 --> 00:18:39,360
Because thank you.

298
00:18:39,360 --> 00:18:42,480
Well, and the thing of it is, is like that's the that's the thing though, is that the

299
00:18:42,480 --> 00:18:48,720
Buffalo bills, you know, we saw it's the jets, they'd have two or three players breaking

300
00:18:48,720 --> 00:18:51,120
loose every snap consistent.

301
00:18:51,120 --> 00:18:54,400
The biggest problem with the bills is they have talented players, but none of them are

302
00:18:54,400 --> 00:18:55,400
consistent.

303
00:18:55,400 --> 00:18:56,400
Not one of them.

304
00:18:56,400 --> 00:18:59,920
I think that Oliver is having a magnificent season so far.

305
00:18:59,920 --> 00:19:01,120
He had himself a day.

306
00:19:01,120 --> 00:19:02,640
He can't do it alone.

307
00:19:02,640 --> 00:19:06,400
He actually was robbed of a of a safety set.

308
00:19:06,400 --> 00:19:08,720
Jimmy Grapplow intentionally grounded that ball.

309
00:19:08,720 --> 00:19:09,720
I don't care.

310
00:19:09,720 --> 00:19:10,720
I don't care who you are.

311
00:19:10,720 --> 00:19:11,720
Totally agree.

312
00:19:11,720 --> 00:19:12,960
That was that was a missed call.

313
00:19:12,960 --> 00:19:16,160
That would have been a set, but that still wouldn't have been enough for me to feel comfortable

314
00:19:16,160 --> 00:19:17,840
with this pass rush.

315
00:19:17,840 --> 00:19:21,920
But yeah, he's having a great, great career year so far.

316
00:19:21,920 --> 00:19:26,320
If he can keep it up, he has eight pressures a second to QB hits and two switch for an

317
00:19:26,320 --> 00:19:29,520
interior defensive lineman, I think is is tracking well.

318
00:19:29,520 --> 00:19:30,520
Correct.

319
00:19:30,520 --> 00:19:33,280
However, from the outside, I'm not seeing enough from Greg or so.

320
00:19:33,280 --> 00:19:34,280
A.J.

321
00:19:34,280 --> 00:19:38,800
Epineza is like, basically ineffective other than that one tipped ball.

322
00:19:38,800 --> 00:19:42,600
And you know, I'm really worried about Leonard Floyd because I think that when it comes to

323
00:19:42,600 --> 00:19:46,280
consistently providing some kind of pressure, he's one of the better.

324
00:19:46,280 --> 00:19:50,360
He's been the probably the best address around the team and he's hurt now and he's hurt.

325
00:19:50,360 --> 00:19:56,200
Yeah, I think that until fun Miller comes back, we may have to deal with this is, you

326
00:19:56,200 --> 00:20:00,760
know, probably not the pressure we need from the front for.

327
00:20:00,760 --> 00:20:06,560
But thankfully, I, you know, have seen some incredible things from.

328
00:20:06,560 --> 00:20:12,720
Terrell Bernard as a young player, he looked really good in that big run fits on heads

329
00:20:12,720 --> 00:20:13,720
up play.

330
00:20:13,720 --> 00:20:18,040
And the thing that has been the complaint, you know, for years with Tramina Edmonds was

331
00:20:18,040 --> 00:20:22,440
like the big play where, you know, sniffing out those big plays and opportunities.

332
00:20:22,440 --> 00:20:27,040
Do believe that Terrell Bernard has shown a little bit in just that one game, small sample

333
00:20:27,040 --> 00:20:32,320
size of course, that he has a little bit more of a Milano style nose for the big play.

334
00:20:32,320 --> 00:20:37,040
And that's exciting because if we had two Matt Milano caliber players in the middle

335
00:20:37,040 --> 00:20:40,040
of the defense, I don't mind that they're undersized.

336
00:20:40,040 --> 00:20:45,480
But they're both coverage, you know, experts who can also make some kind of big time toxic

337
00:20:45,480 --> 00:20:46,480
differential plays.

338
00:20:46,480 --> 00:20:52,720
So I liked when I saw from from the backers, I think that secondary was solid.

339
00:20:52,720 --> 00:20:56,640
And in just in general, the, you know, the pass rush needs to be better.

340
00:20:56,640 --> 00:21:01,840
I agree completely, especially with what they've invested in position.

341
00:21:01,840 --> 00:21:09,360
Greg Rousseau first round pick, AJ Apena is a second round pick at Oliver 15 pick.

342
00:21:09,360 --> 00:21:16,280
And then, you know, free agent dollars to the Quad Jones, Leonard Floyd, Vaughn massive

343
00:21:16,280 --> 00:21:20,520
money to Vaughn Miller, who I know was injured, not really his fault, but can't wait to see

344
00:21:20,520 --> 00:21:21,520
him back.

345
00:21:21,520 --> 00:21:22,520
So expect more.

346
00:21:22,520 --> 00:21:24,720
Yeah, I agree.

347
00:21:24,720 --> 00:21:29,420
And again, the real test for this defensive unit, I think the commanders pose an interesting

348
00:21:29,420 --> 00:21:34,200
test for them because and we'll get it, we'll get more into this and we get into our pregame

349
00:21:34,200 --> 00:21:41,080
analysis, but McDermott against an Eric Bienemite coached offense has been very, very hit or

350
00:21:41,080 --> 00:21:42,920
miss.

351
00:21:42,920 --> 00:21:47,680
And very much so like a lot of the chiefs offenses that Bienemite coach that we have

352
00:21:47,680 --> 00:21:52,880
seen this commander's defense really likes to exploit the middle of the field.

353
00:21:52,880 --> 00:21:56,960
Sam Howell's got a great arm, but he can't necessarily hit the boundaries with a lot

354
00:21:56,960 --> 00:21:59,840
of consistency at this stage of his development.

355
00:21:59,840 --> 00:22:03,280
So kind of like the same way that the dolphins are going to want to exploit the middle of

356
00:22:03,280 --> 00:22:09,240
the field, his commander's game poses an interesting test for that Milano and Bernard

357
00:22:09,240 --> 00:22:13,040
linebacker unit, because they're going to be, I think, highly tested in middle of the

358
00:22:13,040 --> 00:22:15,360
field coverage at this point.

359
00:22:15,360 --> 00:22:18,720
And if you're going to play a team like that, the pass rush simply has to be better.

360
00:22:18,720 --> 00:22:21,240
That's really my only note about this defensive unit.

361
00:22:21,240 --> 00:22:23,120
The pass rush is not good.

362
00:22:23,120 --> 00:22:25,520
It's just not good.

363
00:22:25,520 --> 00:22:27,320
I also don't think the run defense is good.

364
00:22:27,320 --> 00:22:28,320
I get it.

365
00:22:28,320 --> 00:22:29,320
I get it.

366
00:22:29,320 --> 00:22:33,400
They shut down Josh Jacobs, but they also shut down an inferior offensive line unit

367
00:22:33,400 --> 00:22:35,680
as well.

368
00:22:35,680 --> 00:22:41,800
There are going to be better tests of what they can do against properly outfitted run

369
00:22:41,800 --> 00:22:42,800
games.

370
00:22:42,800 --> 00:22:44,360
The Raiders simply just don't have one.

371
00:22:44,360 --> 00:22:45,840
So I get it.

372
00:22:45,840 --> 00:22:48,040
I've said for weeks now and I'm going to stick with it.

373
00:22:48,040 --> 00:22:51,080
I don't think this rush defense is good, even though the numbers from week two would

374
00:22:51,080 --> 00:22:52,840
tell you that it was phenomenal.

375
00:22:52,840 --> 00:22:53,840
Right?

376
00:22:53,840 --> 00:22:54,840
Yeah.

377
00:22:54,840 --> 00:22:59,320
In the 1970 merger, they've held an NFL rushing leader to negative yards.

378
00:22:59,320 --> 00:23:00,320
And I know that that...

379
00:23:00,320 --> 00:23:03,240
Thank you for twisting that knife.

380
00:23:03,240 --> 00:23:09,360
So no, and I'm just saying, you can have that opinion because it's appropriate to question

381
00:23:09,360 --> 00:23:14,480
this run defense since McDermott and pre-McDermott play calling Leslie Freezer have been in

382
00:23:14,480 --> 00:23:16,200
the lead of this defense.

383
00:23:16,200 --> 00:23:18,080
Rush defense has been a problem.

384
00:23:18,080 --> 00:23:24,040
And they haven't necessarily improved rush defense by continually investing and drafting

385
00:23:24,040 --> 00:23:28,880
in undersized players, long lean players and those sorts of things.

386
00:23:28,880 --> 00:23:33,120
They really have not kind of doubled down on making a really solid front against the

387
00:23:33,120 --> 00:23:35,880
run because they are an undersized defense.

388
00:23:35,880 --> 00:23:37,760
They're a more, you know, finesse defense.

389
00:23:37,760 --> 00:23:39,560
And we've talked about this before.

390
00:23:39,560 --> 00:23:41,640
And so it does remain to be seen.

391
00:23:41,640 --> 00:23:46,960
Do think that what they showed against Josh Jacobs was an excellent showing because they

392
00:23:46,960 --> 00:23:52,880
were sound fundamentally, fundamentally, they filled the gaps and lanes they had to.

393
00:23:52,880 --> 00:23:56,240
The Raiders offensive line is not the worst in the league.

394
00:23:56,240 --> 00:24:00,720
It's certainly not the top 10 or 15, but it's definitely not the worst that they're going

395
00:24:00,720 --> 00:24:01,760
to face.

396
00:24:01,760 --> 00:24:05,880
And so I think that that shows some favorable results because Josh, it's realistic.

397
00:24:05,880 --> 00:24:12,480
Josh Jacobs with a similar line, able to get a full rushing title last year, like, happened.

398
00:24:12,480 --> 00:24:16,000
And so their ability against that rush offense was solid.

399
00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:18,920
I think it'll be a little bit more of a challenge.

400
00:24:18,920 --> 00:24:23,800
You know, this week, I think that Brian Robinson Jr. is a really good back.

401
00:24:23,800 --> 00:24:27,960
He's a much bigger back and stronger than Josh Jacobs.

402
00:24:27,960 --> 00:24:32,440
And so they're both loads, but I think that Brian Robinson might have a little bit more

403
00:24:32,440 --> 00:24:34,760
juice coming into his own.

404
00:24:34,760 --> 00:24:37,080
And he has a much better interior offensive line.

405
00:24:37,080 --> 00:24:42,560
Their tackles are very suspect for commanders, but interior offensive line is pre.

406
00:24:42,560 --> 00:24:44,240
Yeah, I agree.

407
00:24:44,240 --> 00:24:49,240
I mean, when you play a team like the Raiders who basically try to run a version of a power

408
00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:53,040
gap scheme, they were playing right into the strength of this Buffalo Bill's defense, which

409
00:24:53,040 --> 00:24:55,240
is to Juan Jones and Ed Oliver.

410
00:24:55,240 --> 00:24:59,680
And Oliver was just living in the backfield for a lot of these run plays.

411
00:24:59,680 --> 00:25:00,840
I think more of a team.

412
00:25:00,840 --> 00:25:07,200
And again, Miami, who right now is leading our division, they run a lot outside zone.

413
00:25:07,200 --> 00:25:12,120
So they're going to be running away with all of that speed from the strength of this defense.

414
00:25:12,120 --> 00:25:14,520
And I think that's going to be a real test for this rush defense.

415
00:25:14,520 --> 00:25:19,880
We've seen Raheem Mostert burn this, burn this Buffalo Bill's defensive unit before.

416
00:25:19,880 --> 00:25:26,960
And I think McDaniel in Miami is really perfecting that outside zone run scheme to a point where

417
00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:33,480
you've got to bring in a Taryn Johnson or you've got to bring in your DBs to help diagnose

418
00:25:33,480 --> 00:25:37,240
and stop the outside zone run game, which is going to open things up down the field.

419
00:25:37,240 --> 00:25:40,680
So I, I did, we'll get into it more when we talk about Miami.

420
00:25:40,680 --> 00:25:45,000
I know like a lot of Bill's fans were like looking past Washington and where we're getting

421
00:25:45,000 --> 00:25:46,440
into Miami territory.

422
00:25:46,440 --> 00:25:50,520
But again, I think the litmus test for where we stand after the first quarter really is

423
00:25:50,520 --> 00:25:52,020
going to be week four.

424
00:25:52,020 --> 00:25:57,400
But before we get to week four, JJ, we need to analyze what we have seen week two.

425
00:25:57,400 --> 00:25:58,400
All right.

426
00:25:58,400 --> 00:26:02,600
So if you are comfortable with it, I am signaling strongly that we are going to transition to

427
00:26:02,600 --> 00:26:03,600
the next topic.

428
00:26:03,600 --> 00:26:04,600
All right.

429
00:26:04,600 --> 00:26:05,600
I'm comfortable with it.

430
00:26:05,600 --> 00:26:08,120
And I just have one request for this pot.

431
00:26:08,120 --> 00:26:12,000
And the title of the pot B is Josh Allen Tom Selleck from heat.

432
00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:13,680
Oh, that's a good one.

433
00:26:13,680 --> 00:26:14,760
Yes, that's a good one.

434
00:26:14,760 --> 00:26:15,760
Oh my God.

435
00:26:15,760 --> 00:26:18,000
Just calling back to that great reference in the first couple of minutes.

436
00:26:18,000 --> 00:26:19,560
So let's let's move on.

437
00:26:19,560 --> 00:26:21,600
Let's talk about the commanders.

438
00:26:21,600 --> 00:26:23,560
Let's do is it real or not real?

439
00:26:23,560 --> 00:26:25,520
And then let's let's get out of here.

440
00:26:25,520 --> 00:26:26,520
Sounds good.

441
00:26:26,520 --> 00:26:28,320
Let's let's start with is it real or not real?

442
00:26:28,320 --> 00:26:33,600
Because everybody in the national media and everybody that has a microphone and a podcast

443
00:26:33,600 --> 00:26:37,400
like we do, we try to draw these grand conclusions off limited data.

444
00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:42,720
In two weeks of football and reality in an 18 week season is limited data at this point.

445
00:26:42,720 --> 00:26:46,640
All that being said, there are some things I think that we can potentially pick up on

446
00:26:46,640 --> 00:26:48,720
that could be real or not real.

447
00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:51,800
So JJ, we're going to go through a couple of quick topics here.

448
00:26:51,800 --> 00:26:56,560
And after two weeks, we're going to discuss whether or not we think this is a real thing

449
00:26:56,560 --> 00:27:01,240
that you can book it as a trend for the Buffalo Bills, or is this something that is not real?

450
00:27:01,240 --> 00:27:04,280
And by the end of the season, we'll prove in the opposite of how it's going.

451
00:27:04,280 --> 00:27:05,280
All right.

452
00:27:05,280 --> 00:27:07,280
So let's start with Kyir Elam.

453
00:27:07,280 --> 00:27:12,720
Again, back to back weeks, a healthy scratch for the Buffalo Bills.

454
00:27:12,720 --> 00:27:15,680
JJ, real or not real?

455
00:27:15,680 --> 00:27:22,240
Kyir Elam will not see the field this season for the Buffalo Bills barring injury.

456
00:27:22,240 --> 00:27:25,000
A real.

457
00:27:25,000 --> 00:27:28,480
I don't think I don't think they trust him.

458
00:27:28,480 --> 00:27:32,560
I don't think I don't think that his and we've talked about this too.

459
00:27:32,560 --> 00:27:39,400
I don't think his natural talent overcomes his instincts in coverage and that they're

460
00:27:39,400 --> 00:27:45,560
too worried that he's going to his awareness of time, time and place on the field down

461
00:27:45,560 --> 00:27:47,640
in distance.

462
00:27:47,640 --> 00:27:49,960
It's gotten them into trouble just even in preseason.

463
00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:54,680
Some of the some of the snaps last year, I thought he was really good in the playoffs.

464
00:27:54,680 --> 00:27:58,680
But I don't think he's going to be on the field because the coaches are so much about

465
00:27:58,680 --> 00:28:01,720
trust that the players are not going to do the wrong thing.

466
00:28:01,720 --> 00:28:06,520
And that might be the wrong like actually believe that Kyir Elam would get much better

467
00:28:06,520 --> 00:28:10,000
just with more snaps or repetitions.

468
00:28:10,000 --> 00:28:14,840
But they're able to lean into their safety blanket, which is like, you know, it's it's

469
00:28:14,840 --> 00:28:22,360
Christian inferred, who has been a really excellent fine for a sixth rounder.

470
00:28:22,360 --> 00:28:26,200
And he, you know, is coming of Levi Wallace, basically.

471
00:28:26,200 --> 00:28:30,760
And so they're they're going to kind of stick there, I think, until he proves them wrong

472
00:28:30,760 --> 00:28:33,880
and they're forced to go to Elam and that might be the wrong call.

473
00:28:33,880 --> 00:28:34,880
How about you?

474
00:28:34,880 --> 00:28:36,200
No, I agree.

475
00:28:36,200 --> 00:28:40,400
I think the the bills, the bills coaching staff was really telegraphing this going all

476
00:28:40,400 --> 00:28:46,360
the way back to last season when many of us forget, Benford got the start to start the

477
00:28:46,360 --> 00:28:49,080
season over Elam.

478
00:28:49,080 --> 00:28:53,400
When Trey White was still recovering from his ACL injury and you had Dane Jackson as

479
00:28:53,400 --> 00:28:55,400
the primary outside corner.

480
00:28:55,400 --> 00:28:57,440
So the bills have been telegraphing this for some bit.

481
00:28:57,440 --> 00:29:04,080
They just they just like they just like Benford's fit in this defensive scheme better.

482
00:29:04,080 --> 00:29:08,640
And again, it's only two weeks in, but I don't know about you, but I've watched some game

483
00:29:08,640 --> 00:29:09,640
tape.

484
00:29:09,640 --> 00:29:10,640
I've gone back and watch highlights.

485
00:29:10,640 --> 00:29:18,120
I do not see a whole like wide berth of difference between what Frazier was doing and what McDermott

486
00:29:18,120 --> 00:29:19,120
is doing.

487
00:29:19,120 --> 00:29:23,320
The Buffalo Bills are blitzing at one of the lowest rates in the league, which is I think

488
00:29:23,320 --> 00:29:28,760
29th right now in the league is there the the status that their blitz rate occupies,

489
00:29:28,760 --> 00:29:32,960
which is very Leslie Frazier like we haven't seen a lot of exotic packages.

490
00:29:32,960 --> 00:29:37,680
We haven't really seen them use a lot of that cover three with wrap that we were talking

491
00:29:37,680 --> 00:29:38,680
about.

492
00:29:38,680 --> 00:29:40,200
And again, this is stuff that could be coming.

493
00:29:40,200 --> 00:29:46,880
Like what's clear is the bills put a lot of stuff on tape early in the season last season,

494
00:29:46,880 --> 00:29:52,400
and you could see even despite Josh's injury teams changing the way they game plan.

495
00:29:52,400 --> 00:29:56,680
Now it feels like this coaching staff is trying to do less of that.

496
00:29:56,680 --> 00:30:00,400
They're running still some really vanilla concepts and they're asking their players

497
00:30:00,400 --> 00:30:03,320
to execute offensively and defensively.

498
00:30:03,320 --> 00:30:07,400
So I wonder if like offensively where I believe the best is yet to come.

499
00:30:07,400 --> 00:30:13,120
I wonder if defensively McDermott is just trying to keep stuff off of off of game tape

500
00:30:13,120 --> 00:30:17,320
to give him his team the advantage when they do play teams like Miami and the Jets come

501
00:30:17,320 --> 00:30:19,880
around again and the Patriots.

502
00:30:19,880 --> 00:30:25,360
So thus far, if you're going to run a Leslie Frazier defense, Benford is the perfect guy

503
00:30:25,360 --> 00:30:27,080
for that.

504
00:30:27,080 --> 00:30:33,160
If there is an opportunity for this defense to change up its identity on a game to game

505
00:30:33,160 --> 00:30:38,640
basis, I think then maybe you see Elam come in because you're going to play Travis Kelsey,

506
00:30:38,640 --> 00:30:39,640
right?

507
00:30:39,640 --> 00:30:44,800
And you draft a guy like Elam specifically to shadow and shut down guys like Travis

508
00:30:44,800 --> 00:30:50,600
Kelsey, Kelsey who puts his hands on guys at a very high rate, like you get a guy like

509
00:30:50,600 --> 00:30:54,720
Elam to battle back within that five yard box before that you've got a break for the

510
00:30:54,720 --> 00:30:56,000
route, right?

511
00:30:56,000 --> 00:31:04,160
I believe that if this is the end, so I want to caveat this to summarize, if this bill's

512
00:31:04,160 --> 00:31:10,040
defense is what it is through two weeks, it's going to be that way through week 18, then

513
00:31:10,040 --> 00:31:13,720
yes, I don't think we see Elam take the field barring injury.

514
00:31:13,720 --> 00:31:18,440
But I believe and maybe I'm giving this coaching staff too much credit, but I believe there

515
00:31:18,440 --> 00:31:22,680
are other wrinkles to this defense that we are going to see.

516
00:31:22,680 --> 00:31:28,200
And I believe that Elam will have some situational efficacy like he did last year.

517
00:31:28,200 --> 00:31:33,400
And so if we are actually going to see a true McDermott defense and not a replication of

518
00:31:33,400 --> 00:31:36,800
the Leslie Frazier defense, then I think Elam gets on the field.

519
00:31:36,800 --> 00:31:39,120
But if this defense is what it is, then I agree with you.

520
00:31:39,120 --> 00:31:40,120
They just don't trust him.

521
00:31:40,120 --> 00:31:44,000
I think that's true, and I think that just a one note on the defense for a move on the

522
00:31:44,000 --> 00:31:46,440
next reel and I real.

523
00:31:46,440 --> 00:31:50,920
The bills have had an incredibly high rate of similar pressure, which is a difference

524
00:31:50,920 --> 00:31:54,000
from the Frazier regime.

525
00:31:54,000 --> 00:31:58,240
Sean McDermott has been doing a lot more putting five or six guys on the line of scrimmage

526
00:31:58,240 --> 00:32:00,880
precinct, sending four.

527
00:32:00,880 --> 00:32:05,120
So it's not an actual blitz because they're only sending four, but the four changes.

528
00:32:05,120 --> 00:32:08,080
And so that is one notable difference I've seen.

529
00:32:08,080 --> 00:32:10,520
And again, it hasn't resulted in sacks.

530
00:32:10,520 --> 00:32:15,680
I think it has helped with confusion for the quarterback in terms of shifting protection

531
00:32:15,680 --> 00:32:18,320
and trying to figure out where their hot read is.

532
00:32:18,320 --> 00:32:22,380
I have noticed that and I think it's an improvement, the simulated pressure that the old sugar

533
00:32:22,380 --> 00:32:23,880
the agate moves.

534
00:32:23,880 --> 00:32:25,560
Yeah, I agree with that.

535
00:32:25,560 --> 00:32:27,240
I think I texted you about that, too.

536
00:32:27,240 --> 00:32:32,520
Like it's nice to see McDermott kind of giving different looks in the box and having pressure

537
00:32:32,520 --> 00:32:33,880
come from different areas.

538
00:32:33,880 --> 00:32:34,880
Yeah, absolutely.

539
00:32:34,880 --> 00:32:37,520
That's been a nice little additional wrinkle.

540
00:32:37,520 --> 00:32:38,880
It's a very small wrinkle.

541
00:32:38,880 --> 00:32:39,880
It's a very small wrinkle.

542
00:32:39,880 --> 00:32:41,960
A note you're saying, yeah, it's not a big change.

543
00:32:41,960 --> 00:32:45,120
It's a very, that's not going to be Miami wrinkle, you know what I mean?

544
00:32:45,120 --> 00:32:46,400
And that's just what we're talking about.

545
00:32:46,400 --> 00:32:48,160
So all right, moving on next.

546
00:32:48,160 --> 00:32:49,160
And we've talked about this.

547
00:32:49,160 --> 00:32:53,240
So let's just cement our opinions now for the take universe.

548
00:32:53,240 --> 00:32:59,160
JJ, real or not real, the Buffalo Bills run defense is good.

549
00:32:59,160 --> 00:33:00,600
I think that is real.

550
00:33:00,600 --> 00:33:04,400
The way that you said it to me for show notes was the run defense is bad.

551
00:33:04,400 --> 00:33:06,400
So you almost trapped me into being like, not real.

552
00:33:06,400 --> 00:33:07,400
Yeah, I know.

553
00:33:07,400 --> 00:33:09,000
I think that was intentional.

554
00:33:09,000 --> 00:33:12,640
Yeah, I think that the pills run defense is good.

555
00:33:12,640 --> 00:33:16,480
I think that they showed they showed a lot against Josh Jacobs for me.

556
00:33:16,480 --> 00:33:21,120
And I know that that again, that offensive line is not elite, but it's also not terrible.

557
00:33:21,120 --> 00:33:23,280
And that is the NFL rushing leader from last year.

558
00:33:23,280 --> 00:33:25,280
So I think that they are good.

559
00:33:25,280 --> 00:33:32,360
I think that as long as you have Rousseau at Oliver and Dequan Jones and then insert

560
00:33:32,360 --> 00:33:36,560
whatever other defensive line, you know, defensive end you want, as long as you have

561
00:33:36,560 --> 00:33:41,360
those core three on the field, I think that they will they'll probably not get gash.

562
00:33:41,360 --> 00:33:46,120
It's the snaps where they're rotated out to get fresh legs in that I really worried.

563
00:33:46,120 --> 00:33:47,120
So I think they're good.

564
00:33:47,120 --> 00:33:53,040
But I'm only talking about the starting preferred defensive line.

565
00:33:53,040 --> 00:34:00,000
OK, I'm going to say bad, but I'm going to be generous with how bad I think it actually

566
00:34:00,000 --> 00:34:01,000
is.

567
00:34:01,000 --> 00:34:06,480
So I think like a lot of defenses that play the style of the Buffalo Bills do.

568
00:34:06,480 --> 00:34:10,320
It's really, really good in a floor razor against bad teams.

569
00:34:10,320 --> 00:34:15,280
So I think bad rushing units, absolutely the Buffalo Bills are going to have some some

570
00:34:15,280 --> 00:34:18,480
advantageous match up matchups against.

571
00:34:18,480 --> 00:34:23,280
It's the teams that are more effective, that have better offensive lines, that have better

572
00:34:23,280 --> 00:34:26,040
run schemes that I think they're going to have a problem with.

573
00:34:26,040 --> 00:34:28,920
So and and that might seem self evident.

574
00:34:28,920 --> 00:34:33,160
Well, yeah, of course, like as teams get better, this Buffalo Bills defense is going

575
00:34:33,160 --> 00:34:34,760
to struggle.

576
00:34:34,760 --> 00:34:40,440
But I think more and more, we have not seen yet the best of the New England Patriots run

577
00:34:40,440 --> 00:34:42,560
game because that offensive line isn't healthy.

578
00:34:42,560 --> 00:34:46,760
Even when healthy, it's not a good pass pro offensive line, but it's a really good run

579
00:34:46,760 --> 00:34:49,280
blocking offensive line.

580
00:34:49,280 --> 00:34:54,000
And Bill O'Brien is just chomping at the bit when that O line gets healthy to use Stevenson

581
00:34:54,000 --> 00:34:55,840
a little bit more effectively.

582
00:34:55,840 --> 00:35:02,840
We have seen Miami through two games really try to establish their run game.

583
00:35:02,840 --> 00:35:06,920
They didn't do it in a great way against against the Chargers and they had to rely on two or

584
00:35:06,920 --> 00:35:09,040
chuck it up 50 times.

585
00:35:09,040 --> 00:35:15,520
But they found a new way to win without to a playing as best game against New England

586
00:35:15,520 --> 00:35:16,520
teams like that.

587
00:35:16,520 --> 00:35:21,520
And then the Jets, of course, like Breeze Hall has gashed this this defense before, I think

588
00:35:21,520 --> 00:35:26,880
like we have talked about with the pass offense or with the past defense, when it matters against

589
00:35:26,880 --> 00:35:32,440
really good teams, this Buffalo Bills defense needs to step up and shut down the run because

590
00:35:32,440 --> 00:35:38,600
more teams are trying to dominate ball control and win that way, just within the division.

591
00:35:38,600 --> 00:35:44,440
So when I look at the divisional matchups, I see this Buffalo Bills run defense as problematic.

592
00:35:44,440 --> 00:35:48,560
We've seen them scheme to shut down guys like Derek Derek Henry and have great one game

593
00:35:48,560 --> 00:35:49,560
performances.

594
00:35:49,560 --> 00:35:56,560
But we have not seen this run defense under McDermott consistently game by game shut down

595
00:35:56,560 --> 00:35:59,360
the opposing teams rushing offense.

596
00:35:59,360 --> 00:36:03,920
So I'm going to say it's bad because I think not a personnel thing.

597
00:36:03,920 --> 00:36:07,920
I just think there are bad matchups within the division that are going to really exploit

598
00:36:07,920 --> 00:36:12,960
this Buffalo Bills rush defense and how just tiny this defense is.

599
00:36:12,960 --> 00:36:15,360
I think I'm worried about that too.

600
00:36:15,360 --> 00:36:20,520
But for now, from just seeing, I think there are good run defense when the starters are

601
00:36:20,520 --> 00:36:21,520
on the field.

602
00:36:21,520 --> 00:36:22,520
I know.

603
00:36:22,520 --> 00:36:24,640
And listen, I'm the numbers guy and I know that I'm going against the numbers.

604
00:36:24,640 --> 00:36:25,640
Yes.

605
00:36:25,640 --> 00:36:26,960
I will absolutely own that.

606
00:36:26,960 --> 00:36:31,160
I'm going off gut and I test, which I always rail on people for.

607
00:36:31,160 --> 00:36:36,160
But until they can do it, listen, week four is going to be my litmus test for so many

608
00:36:36,160 --> 00:36:37,960
things about this Bills defense.

609
00:36:37,960 --> 00:36:40,840
If they can do it week four, I'll start to believe.

610
00:36:40,840 --> 00:36:45,760
But until they do it against a really good premium rushing offense, I'm not sold.

611
00:36:45,760 --> 00:36:46,760
I'm not sold.

612
00:36:46,760 --> 00:36:48,120
All right.

613
00:36:48,120 --> 00:36:49,520
Real or not real.

614
00:36:49,520 --> 00:36:51,800
We have seen two very different versions of Josh.

615
00:36:51,800 --> 00:36:58,120
We have seen Josh Allen turnover machine and we have seen Josh Allen expert game manager

616
00:36:58,120 --> 00:36:59,560
and back to back weeks.

617
00:36:59,560 --> 00:37:01,120
JJ, which one is real?

618
00:37:01,120 --> 00:37:04,000
Josh, the turnover machine or Josh, the game manager?

619
00:37:04,000 --> 00:37:07,000
You're going to hate this both.

620
00:37:07,000 --> 00:37:09,240
I think he is both of those people.

621
00:37:09,240 --> 00:37:13,160
And if I had to choose one, I think he's the turnover machine.

622
00:37:13,160 --> 00:37:19,920
I do think it because like I said, kind of when we open the pod, I think that game manager

623
00:37:19,920 --> 00:37:24,720
Josh is it's it's him putting on like an it's him playing a role.

624
00:37:24,720 --> 00:37:27,680
And it's it's maybe not the most comfortable thing for him.

625
00:37:27,680 --> 00:37:29,680
It's not natural.

626
00:37:29,680 --> 00:37:30,680
He's capable of it.

627
00:37:30,680 --> 00:37:33,040
That's why both is the answer is he can be both.

628
00:37:33,040 --> 00:37:35,680
I think his natural state is turnover Josh.

629
00:37:35,680 --> 00:37:42,000
And I think he has to fight his his more basal instincts in order to to be a manager Josh.

630
00:37:42,000 --> 00:37:45,360
And so if I had to choose, I'd say turnover Josh.

631
00:37:45,360 --> 00:37:48,320
But I think he's capable of being a manager Josh.

632
00:37:48,320 --> 00:37:53,440
The really lethal best QB in the league, Josh Allen, who can bring a Lombardi trophy back

633
00:37:53,440 --> 00:38:00,640
to Buffalo is when he knows or when he can switch between those modes will without the

634
00:38:00,640 --> 00:38:04,400
influence of the opponent deciding for it.

635
00:38:04,400 --> 00:38:09,720
When he can decide when to like unleash Superman, Josh with great effect.

636
00:38:09,720 --> 00:38:12,640
And then when he can switch back into game manager, Josh, and that's what we haven't

637
00:38:12,640 --> 00:38:16,840
seen in his I mean, in his young career, he's been in the league for a bit now, but he tends

638
00:38:16,840 --> 00:38:19,440
to be one way, one extreme or the other.

639
00:38:19,440 --> 00:38:25,240
He doesn't didn't play a game where he has the ability to like, plod down the field,

640
00:38:25,240 --> 00:38:29,960
take what the defense gives him and then just like, uncork an amazing one, except for the

641
00:38:29,960 --> 00:38:34,360
one place game against Patriots, we were at.

642
00:38:34,360 --> 00:38:37,760
And that you know, that's few and far between that's probably the perfect game.

643
00:38:37,760 --> 00:38:43,400
So till he has that capacity, I think he's turned over Josh.

644
00:38:43,400 --> 00:38:49,720
That Pat's game in minus six degrees Fahrenheit, that wild card playoff game that that was a

645
00:38:49,720 --> 00:38:55,360
mythical performance that that whole game from Josh.

646
00:38:55,360 --> 00:39:01,200
And Josh was just his average depth of target was just crazy in that game.

647
00:39:01,200 --> 00:39:06,800
But that game, it's not a one off, but it is a game that only a few guys have the physical

648
00:39:06,800 --> 00:39:08,300
ability to do.

649
00:39:08,300 --> 00:39:12,840
And there was actually a really great article that I read heading into this pod in the athletic

650
00:39:12,840 --> 00:39:16,960
from I think it was Matthew Fairburn, or it might have been Graham, I can't remember which

651
00:39:16,960 --> 00:39:22,120
one, where they talked to three former coaches and offensive coordinators about what it's

652
00:39:22,120 --> 00:39:27,520
like to coach someone is athletically gifted as Josh Allen.

653
00:39:27,520 --> 00:39:31,240
And the hardest part is Josh knows what he can do.

654
00:39:31,240 --> 00:39:35,440
He doesn't feel like he has any physical limitations on the field whatsoever.

655
00:39:35,440 --> 00:39:39,920
But it is helping him to understand when to apply those tools.

656
00:39:39,920 --> 00:39:44,920
So my answer to this is, is he turnover machine or is he game manager, Josh?

657
00:39:44,920 --> 00:39:48,360
I kind of agree and I take the cop out because I think he's both.

658
00:39:48,360 --> 00:39:53,480
I think what we're going to see throughout the course of the season as this offense continues

659
00:39:53,480 --> 00:39:59,320
to evolve in Dorsey's second year, as we're going to see Josh do what is asked of him.

660
00:39:59,320 --> 00:40:04,240
But the reality is, is as deep as this, this roster is, and it's an expensive roster to

661
00:40:04,240 --> 00:40:07,720
it's the most expensive roster in the NFL.

662
00:40:07,720 --> 00:40:12,960
The reality is, is there's still going to need Josh to do Josh things to win some of

663
00:40:12,960 --> 00:40:14,640
these big games, right?

664
00:40:14,640 --> 00:40:19,640
You cannot simultaneously take the guy who almost single handedly brought you back two

665
00:40:19,640 --> 00:40:24,760
years ago against Tampa Bay with his legs in his arm and say, stop doing that.

666
00:40:24,760 --> 00:40:28,240
I don't think that should be in the mix or should be in the formula.

667
00:40:28,240 --> 00:40:31,920
But I think what's going to happen is Josh is going to figure out how to manage his

668
00:40:31,920 --> 00:40:33,360
band with better.

669
00:40:33,360 --> 00:40:37,960
And he's going to have a better sense as he matures about when he needs to go YOLO Josh

670
00:40:37,960 --> 00:40:40,640
and when he needs to be Dink and Dunk Josh.

671
00:40:40,640 --> 00:40:46,520
And I think that that maturation and that progression until it's fully formed, we're

672
00:40:46,520 --> 00:40:47,800
going to get both.

673
00:40:47,800 --> 00:40:50,400
We're going to have games where Josh is going to turn it over twice.

674
00:40:50,400 --> 00:40:54,200
And then we're going to have games like this where Josh is like 80% completion rate and

675
00:40:54,200 --> 00:40:57,000
we're dominating two thirds of time of possession.

676
00:40:57,000 --> 00:41:01,520
And as the defense continues to form early in the season, we're going to need more game

677
00:41:01,520 --> 00:41:04,920
manager Josh because time of possession is really going to matter against some of these

678
00:41:04,920 --> 00:41:07,160
quick strike offenses they're going to be facing.

679
00:41:07,160 --> 00:41:08,560
So yeah, so I agree with you.

680
00:41:08,560 --> 00:41:10,160
I think it's going to be both.

681
00:41:10,160 --> 00:41:15,540
All right, last, and we've already kind of alluded to this, the Bill's pass rush.

682
00:41:15,540 --> 00:41:21,320
So the Buffalo Bills did a good job getting pressure, whatever your advanced analytics

683
00:41:21,320 --> 00:41:26,200
definition of pressure is on Jimmy G, but they failed to bring him down much like the

684
00:41:26,200 --> 00:41:28,440
days of one Jerry Hughes.

685
00:41:28,440 --> 00:41:30,560
JJ real or not real.

686
00:41:30,560 --> 00:41:37,320
The Bill's pass rush is back to pressure means more than sex.

687
00:41:37,320 --> 00:41:41,600
Pressure means more than sex is what team says when they suck it sack.

688
00:41:41,600 --> 00:41:42,600
That's it.

689
00:41:42,600 --> 00:41:43,600
We suck at it.

690
00:41:43,600 --> 00:41:45,720
Yeah, we're really bad at it.

691
00:41:45,720 --> 00:41:47,520
And that's the thing.

692
00:41:47,520 --> 00:41:51,960
It's basically, you know, it's actually like, oh, if you can't do teach, like that's like

693
00:41:51,960 --> 00:41:55,040
a statement that's made by a loser.

694
00:41:55,040 --> 00:41:56,680
And so that's how I feel about it.

695
00:41:56,680 --> 00:42:01,840
I think it's true because I think that that's something that you know, Fraser talked about

696
00:42:01,840 --> 00:42:06,520
McDermott talked about, but it always sounded like just such a cop out for this.

697
00:42:06,520 --> 00:42:08,640
We're bad at sacking the quarterback.

698
00:42:08,640 --> 00:42:11,280
And so we're just going to say that pressure is more important.

699
00:42:11,280 --> 00:42:12,280
And I get it.

700
00:42:12,280 --> 00:42:15,520
I get that pressure causes quarterbacks to make poor choices.

701
00:42:15,520 --> 00:42:19,800
The Bill's defense is year over year, one of the top rated units in the league, and

702
00:42:19,800 --> 00:42:21,400
there's value in that.

703
00:42:21,400 --> 00:42:27,000
But it's it just I think it just they would much prefer the downending play, the loss

704
00:42:27,000 --> 00:42:33,280
of yardage, the possible fumbles that come from QB sacks and hits over just the pressure

705
00:42:33,280 --> 00:42:35,440
influence on their defense.

706
00:42:35,440 --> 00:42:40,760
I do also think, you know, if you look at it from a schematic standpoint that this defense

707
00:42:40,760 --> 00:42:46,520
actually plays more for pressure than sex, because you can see their fundamentals aren't

708
00:42:46,520 --> 00:42:52,560
to rush wildly in whichever lane they can find, they're coached to stay in their lanes

709
00:42:52,560 --> 00:42:57,520
to minimize, to squeeze rush to make sure that the quarterback doesn't have easy outs

710
00:42:57,520 --> 00:42:59,040
or escape routes.

711
00:42:59,040 --> 00:43:05,560
And so I think that they're coached to to provide or to supply pressure more than individual

712
00:43:05,560 --> 00:43:08,000
statistics and sacks.

713
00:43:08,000 --> 00:43:12,240
And so yes, absolutely, it's real that that's their approach.

714
00:43:12,240 --> 00:43:17,000
But I think they would also prefer it more if they did that and like the Jets offensive

715
00:43:17,000 --> 00:43:22,400
line, this is in the jets did a great job of giving Josh Allen easy running lanes, or

716
00:43:22,400 --> 00:43:26,800
looping or stunting to make sure that when he's when they showed him a rushing lane,

717
00:43:26,800 --> 00:43:29,240
he tried to go through it was brought down immediately.

718
00:43:29,240 --> 00:43:33,200
Like that's, that's how you do it and get sacks.

719
00:43:33,200 --> 00:43:37,400
And so they don't have the talent to get pressure and sacks.

720
00:43:37,400 --> 00:43:42,800
So they do, you know, and they play within their lanes and they get pressure and it makes

721
00:43:42,800 --> 00:43:43,800
me sad.

722
00:43:43,800 --> 00:43:46,800
I know, it's because it's another floor raising strategy.

723
00:43:46,800 --> 00:43:47,800
Yes.

724
00:43:47,800 --> 00:43:52,240
But when you play Cincinnati and you're asking those DBs to maintain their coverage for extended

725
00:43:52,240 --> 00:43:58,200
periods of time, because the defensive line is playing within their scheme, we've seen

726
00:43:58,200 --> 00:44:03,560
it lead to absolute abject heartbreak in the postseason and late in the season.

727
00:44:03,560 --> 00:44:05,760
So teams like Miami teams like Cincinnati.

728
00:44:05,760 --> 00:44:12,160
I honestly would even argue a team like Philly, who was on the schedule for later in the season,

729
00:44:12,160 --> 00:44:16,240
those teams with the speed that they have on the outside are really going to test what

730
00:44:16,240 --> 00:44:23,680
is at both points in aging and slow secondary and with some young components that are still

731
00:44:23,680 --> 00:44:25,800
getting their sea legs under them.

732
00:44:25,800 --> 00:44:28,000
So I agree with you.

733
00:44:28,000 --> 00:44:32,060
This this defense, it's clear that they value pressure more than sacks.

734
00:44:32,060 --> 00:44:35,840
But I think that is a recipe ultimately for failure as we play more elite competition

735
00:44:35,840 --> 00:44:37,360
for sure.

736
00:44:37,360 --> 00:44:42,680
So speaking of competition, the bills have another one o'clock game this Sunday, one

737
00:44:42,680 --> 00:44:49,280
PM at Washington against one Washington commanders unit coached by Ron Rivera and now offensively

738
00:44:49,280 --> 00:44:54,640
coordinated by one Eric Biennami, who is someone we're very familiar with on this pod.

739
00:44:54,640 --> 00:44:56,960
So JJ, where do you want to start this pregame analysis?

740
00:44:56,960 --> 00:45:00,560
You want to start on the offensive side of the ball for the bills or the defensive side

741
00:45:00,560 --> 00:45:01,560
of the ball for the bills?

742
00:45:01,560 --> 00:45:05,000
Let's start on the defensive side of the ball because I want to talk about Sam Howell

743
00:45:05,000 --> 00:45:08,600
and the Washington commanders offense to start things off.

744
00:45:08,600 --> 00:45:13,000
And I think that the only place we can start when we talk about the bills defense versus

745
00:45:13,000 --> 00:45:17,840
Washington commanders offense is how much Eric Biennami loves Matt Milano.

746
00:45:17,840 --> 00:45:22,520
I don't know if people out there caught it, but Eric Biennami during his press time was

747
00:45:22,520 --> 00:45:26,720
asked about bills defense and he just like started talking about Matt Milano.

748
00:45:26,720 --> 00:45:32,440
And at first it was like, Oh, this is nice coach praise and kudos for a guy who he respects

749
00:45:32,440 --> 00:45:33,840
as an opponent.

750
00:45:33,840 --> 00:45:37,680
And then it got into this place where I was like, I am starting to feel sort of uncomfortable.

751
00:45:37,680 --> 00:45:39,200
My palms are sweating.

752
00:45:39,200 --> 00:45:41,200
I'm worried.

753
00:45:41,200 --> 00:45:43,280
Bet you Matt Milano is blushing somewhere.

754
00:45:43,280 --> 00:45:44,280
It got awkward.

755
00:45:44,280 --> 00:45:48,040
But I mean, the poll stands, the man on is amazing.

756
00:45:48,040 --> 00:45:49,040
We all love him.

757
00:45:49,040 --> 00:45:54,480
Um, if you can make that ridiculous interception against Josh Jacobs, I texted my bills group

758
00:45:54,480 --> 00:45:58,760
friend, you know, you know, I wanted to be a future X Mrs.

759
00:45:58,760 --> 00:45:59,760
Milano.

760
00:45:59,760 --> 00:46:02,080
Um, you know, that's neither here nor there.

761
00:46:02,080 --> 00:46:05,080
So what, what, what is happening on this?

762
00:46:05,080 --> 00:46:06,080
I don't know.

763
00:46:06,080 --> 00:46:08,520
I'm weird.

764
00:46:08,520 --> 00:46:14,440
Um, so the bills defense against so Sam Howell, you mentioned he does not throw outside the

765
00:46:14,440 --> 00:46:15,720
numbers very well.

766
00:46:15,720 --> 00:46:18,360
He throws across the middle of the field with good accuracy.

767
00:46:18,360 --> 00:46:20,480
He's got actually an amazing arm.

768
00:46:20,480 --> 00:46:24,160
His arm is in shorter QB.

769
00:46:24,160 --> 00:46:25,760
He was a fifth round pick.

770
00:46:25,760 --> 00:46:31,720
Um, he came from a system in North Carolina UNC that was like the most simplified offensive

771
00:46:31,720 --> 00:46:34,680
system and someone that Dawson came out of.

772
00:46:34,680 --> 00:46:39,080
So it's taken him a little bit of time to get into the NFL and play.

773
00:46:39,080 --> 00:46:42,080
And this is a very complex system he has with Eric Bantamy.

774
00:46:42,080 --> 00:46:47,760
But I think Eric Bantamy is a perfect kind of OC to get the best out of Sam Howell.

775
00:46:47,760 --> 00:46:50,960
And so I see some challenges in coverage.

776
00:46:50,960 --> 00:46:52,880
They have amazing talented receivers.

777
00:46:52,880 --> 00:46:56,440
They have Johan Dodson, Terry McClellan, who's kind of something going on with turf

778
00:46:56,440 --> 00:46:57,440
toes.

779
00:46:57,440 --> 00:47:00,120
So he's not been 100% but still playing.

780
00:47:00,120 --> 00:47:01,440
And then Curtis Samuel.

781
00:47:01,440 --> 00:47:03,560
So their weapons are there.

782
00:47:03,560 --> 00:47:09,680
So how was an excellent quarterback at timed layered throws to very specific parts of the

783
00:47:09,680 --> 00:47:10,800
field?

784
00:47:10,800 --> 00:47:12,840
He also has those rookie problems.

785
00:47:12,840 --> 00:47:17,600
And this is a part that I like, you know, in the bills versus the Washington commanders

786
00:47:17,600 --> 00:47:22,120
is how successful Sean McDermott and, you know, before that Leslie Fraser defense has

787
00:47:22,120 --> 00:47:27,680
been against, um, against rookie rookie and young quarterbacks.

788
00:47:27,680 --> 00:47:31,120
So I expect them to give him some looks that are confusing him.

789
00:47:31,120 --> 00:47:33,640
He's taken 10 sacks for two weeks.

790
00:47:33,640 --> 00:47:38,360
And so there with their tackles being the weakest part of their offensive line.

791
00:47:38,360 --> 00:47:43,960
If the bills pass rust doesn't show up in forms of a Greg or so Leonard Floyd, Floyd,

792
00:47:43,960 --> 00:47:49,240
if you pay plays a Jep and Neza, check loss and like somebody should be getting sacks

793
00:47:49,240 --> 00:47:52,080
from the edge in this based on their their tackle.

794
00:47:52,080 --> 00:47:55,040
So I just kind of spit a lot out there.

795
00:47:55,040 --> 00:48:00,880
Um, we mentioned before Brian Robinson being a good, um, running back out of Florida State.

796
00:48:00,880 --> 00:48:02,360
He's a he's a large bruising.

797
00:48:02,360 --> 00:48:03,720
He's got some juice to him too.

798
00:48:03,720 --> 00:48:07,560
So there's a lot of challenges with this offense.

799
00:48:07,560 --> 00:48:12,160
Um, but the offense for the commanders is also pretty inconsistent.

800
00:48:12,160 --> 00:48:19,200
And I think that you see the enemy scheme with without Patrick Mahomes leave some things

801
00:48:19,200 --> 00:48:25,480
to be desired because he tries to plan and scheme for like open easy over the middle

802
00:48:25,480 --> 00:48:27,640
yard after catch passes.

803
00:48:27,640 --> 00:48:30,800
And without Patrick Mahomes, some of that stuff just isn't connecting.

804
00:48:30,800 --> 00:48:35,680
And so I see the bills having some opportunities here, certainly for sacks, but also for,

805
00:48:35,680 --> 00:48:38,360
um, for interceptions.

806
00:48:38,360 --> 00:48:42,720
But I think it all really stems from the first step to be successful.

807
00:48:42,720 --> 00:48:48,400
They have to shut down this rushing attack because if they get Brian Robinson going,

808
00:48:48,400 --> 00:48:53,000
him all has one of the lowest play action kind of rates in the league.

809
00:48:53,000 --> 00:48:56,560
And I think that's because he has a young quarterback and turning his back to the defense

810
00:48:56,560 --> 00:49:00,160
kind of might mess up his look at what they're trying to play him.

811
00:49:00,160 --> 00:49:04,400
So, um, that that's something that they do worry about, but they do need to shut down

812
00:49:04,400 --> 00:49:05,400
the road.

813
00:49:05,400 --> 00:49:06,400
What are your thoughts?

814
00:49:06,400 --> 00:49:07,400
Yeah, no, I agree.

815
00:49:07,400 --> 00:49:12,760
I think, I think through two weeks, which is a limited sample size, but through two weeks,

816
00:49:12,760 --> 00:49:17,440
this Washington offense looks from a metric standpoint, very similar to what the KC offense

817
00:49:17,440 --> 00:49:19,440
was that Biannemy coached up.

818
00:49:19,440 --> 00:49:25,800
So they're passing at about a 62% rate on their play calls and only rushing at a 38%

819
00:49:25,800 --> 00:49:26,800
rate.

820
00:49:26,800 --> 00:49:30,600
But you mentioned needing to shut down the run game and that is important because what

821
00:49:30,600 --> 00:49:35,560
this Washington commanders team has been the best at so far this season beyond any other

822
00:49:35,560 --> 00:49:44,320
team is rushing for touchdowns or first downs on 18 of their 51 rushing attempts this season

823
00:49:44,320 --> 00:49:50,000
has either gone for a first down or a touchdown, which is the highest clip in the league.

824
00:49:50,000 --> 00:49:54,080
So this is a team that doesn't run the ball with great regularity, but when it picks its

825
00:49:54,080 --> 00:49:58,080
spots, it is doing so with surgical like efficacy.

826
00:49:58,080 --> 00:50:01,480
And this is something that is really going to test the bills if they're sitting on their

827
00:50:01,480 --> 00:50:05,540
heels guarding the middle of the field and expecting the pass.

828
00:50:05,540 --> 00:50:10,720
So now, and again, it's only two weeks, but how old like we have said he is not testing

829
00:50:10,720 --> 00:50:15,640
outside the numbers at a very high rate right now about 70 of his passes have been inside

830
00:50:15,640 --> 00:50:17,760
the numbers of the middle part of the field.

831
00:50:17,760 --> 00:50:22,880
That's not to say that it's not necessarily in the game plan but where how it is in his

832
00:50:22,880 --> 00:50:24,080
development.

833
00:50:24,080 --> 00:50:27,040
He's not really testing the boundaries at this point.

834
00:50:27,040 --> 00:50:30,800
So this really should be a game where the Buffalo bills and honestly, it's going to

835
00:50:30,800 --> 00:50:33,400
be good practice for Miami as well.

836
00:50:33,400 --> 00:50:37,280
This really should be a game where Buffalo can crowd passing lanes in the middle of the

837
00:50:37,280 --> 00:50:45,080
field, hopefully get pressure and sacks with just four guys and drop seven and crowd all

838
00:50:45,080 --> 00:50:49,080
of these passing lanes because how is hanging onto the ball.

839
00:50:49,080 --> 00:50:52,800
His average time to throw right now I think is about 2.88 seconds.

840
00:50:52,800 --> 00:50:58,000
So he's holding onto the ball like young developing QB is do looking for things that aren't developing

841
00:50:58,000 --> 00:50:59,280
more quickly.

842
00:50:59,280 --> 00:51:02,080
The bills can really take advantage of that.

843
00:51:02,080 --> 00:51:06,560
And if the offense can do what it did last game, the offense plays into the defensive

844
00:51:06,560 --> 00:51:10,880
game plan and that you're going to take away the run pretty quickly if Buffalo can get

845
00:51:10,880 --> 00:51:15,720
a couple of scores early and go up and force this Washington commander's offense out of

846
00:51:15,720 --> 00:51:19,080
its game plan because it is a team that doesn't run a lot.

847
00:51:19,080 --> 00:51:22,400
But when they do, they definitely make sure that it counts.

848
00:51:22,400 --> 00:51:23,840
And that's a B enemy.

849
00:51:23,840 --> 00:51:30,560
You know, it's less, you know, it was a chiefs B enemy because he was on the playcaller,

850
00:51:30,560 --> 00:51:34,600
but it was a chiefs component of their offense to pass first offense.

851
00:51:34,600 --> 00:51:40,200
But when they choose to run it, it was always the one moment that you absolutely weren't

852
00:51:40,200 --> 00:51:44,160
expecting or wanting them to run and they ran right up right up the gut, right?

853
00:51:44,160 --> 00:51:45,160
And broke it open.

854
00:51:45,160 --> 00:51:47,280
So yeah, I think there's a lot of challenge here.

855
00:51:47,280 --> 00:51:54,320
I think in a lot of ways watching the the Raiders and Washington commanders, these teams both

856
00:51:54,320 --> 00:51:58,960
kind of remind me of each other in a lot of ways on offense.

857
00:51:58,960 --> 00:52:00,280
And I think the commanders are better.

858
00:52:00,280 --> 00:52:05,360
I think it's a ratchet up of defensive skill, of course, and a little bit better offensive

859
00:52:05,360 --> 00:52:06,360
talent.

860
00:52:06,360 --> 00:52:10,720
But I'm not, I'm not intimidated of the commander's offense.

861
00:52:10,720 --> 00:52:12,600
I think that they're solid.

862
00:52:12,600 --> 00:52:14,000
They showed some really good things.

863
00:52:14,000 --> 00:52:17,000
Broncos showed some really good things about the Cardinals.

864
00:52:17,000 --> 00:52:20,080
That's the Broncos and the Cardinals.

865
00:52:20,080 --> 00:52:26,000
And the continued sports rivalry of Russell Wilson and the end zone carries on for a new

866
00:52:26,000 --> 00:52:27,000
era, right?

867
00:52:27,000 --> 00:52:32,200
Like he had open receivers running in wide open the end zone and he's throwing in or

868
00:52:32,200 --> 00:52:33,440
something and stuff like that.

869
00:52:33,440 --> 00:52:36,480
So, you know, I think that it's interesting.

870
00:52:36,480 --> 00:52:39,640
It'll be interesting to see this commander's offense against this bill's defense because

871
00:52:39,640 --> 00:52:43,760
I don't think that they've played an elite defense yet.

872
00:52:43,760 --> 00:52:45,320
The bills will be their first elite defense.

873
00:52:45,320 --> 00:52:46,320
The Broncos are good.

874
00:52:46,320 --> 00:52:50,000
They're a very good defense and have been, but it's really hard to be good when you have

875
00:52:50,000 --> 00:52:52,240
nothing to count on with your offense.

876
00:52:52,240 --> 00:52:58,720
It came out and blew blew up the commanders for 21 to three and then fell off and could

877
00:52:58,720 --> 00:53:02,400
not find another efficacy the rest of it.

878
00:53:02,400 --> 00:53:03,400
I agree.

879
00:53:03,400 --> 00:53:06,160
But this is also for Washington.

880
00:53:06,160 --> 00:53:07,440
We've talked about litmus tests.

881
00:53:07,440 --> 00:53:10,880
This is a litmus test for Washington and their home.

882
00:53:10,880 --> 00:53:14,120
No one is talking about them beyond the Cowboys and the Eagles.

883
00:53:14,120 --> 00:53:18,620
There are three 2 and 0 teams and that NFC East Division right now and the commanders

884
00:53:18,620 --> 00:53:20,040
are one of them.

885
00:53:20,040 --> 00:53:24,720
They are no doubt when you read the press coming out of the DC metro area, they know

886
00:53:24,720 --> 00:53:26,800
this is a prove it game for them.

887
00:53:26,800 --> 00:53:31,080
And I think this Buffalo bills defense is going to get the absolute best shot from this

888
00:53:31,080 --> 00:53:32,080
commander's offense.

889
00:53:32,080 --> 00:53:36,760
I think the spread on this game opened at seven and a half and it's all the way down

890
00:53:36,760 --> 00:53:42,720
to six still favoring the bills, but there is money going on the commanders as more and

891
00:53:42,720 --> 00:53:46,200
more people are realizing that maybe this isn't a team that you should sleep on.

892
00:53:46,200 --> 00:53:50,840
All right, you want to flip over to the bill's offense versus the commander's defense?

893
00:53:50,840 --> 00:53:53,720
I sure do.

894
00:53:53,720 --> 00:53:55,640
So I'll start.

895
00:53:55,640 --> 00:54:01,160
So I think that the Buffalo bills need to see Josh Allen be efficient game manager

896
00:54:01,160 --> 00:54:02,160
challenge.

897
00:54:02,160 --> 00:54:08,440
I think that the real weakness of this commander's defense is in the middle their middle linebackers

898
00:54:08,440 --> 00:54:10,880
and kind of coverage from their slot.

899
00:54:10,880 --> 00:54:15,920
They are a they're great in the middle of the field between the numbers in coverage.

900
00:54:15,920 --> 00:54:18,320
And I think that that's exactly where the bills need to hit.

901
00:54:18,320 --> 00:54:22,600
I want this to be I think Dawson ox get his little dinged up right now or something, but

902
00:54:22,600 --> 00:54:27,680
I want this to be the Dawson Knox and Dalton concade like show for this whole James Cook

903
00:54:27,680 --> 00:54:33,040
underneath catch and this is establish the run get that going because I think the Washington

904
00:54:33,040 --> 00:54:36,120
commanders have an excellent defensive line first rounders across.

905
00:54:36,120 --> 00:54:39,040
I mean, it's Montez sweat.

906
00:54:39,040 --> 00:54:44,720
Jonathan Allen, Deron Payne, Chase Young, all just excellent and then behind them, they're

907
00:54:44,720 --> 00:54:47,040
second line defenders are also very solid.

908
00:54:47,040 --> 00:54:52,480
So but the problem I think that they've seen the commanders propose is that their players

909
00:54:52,480 --> 00:54:57,040
are all excellent pass rushers and good run defenders.

910
00:54:57,040 --> 00:55:01,400
They're not excellent all around and they tend to sometimes especially chase young.

911
00:55:01,400 --> 00:55:05,200
I think this is the criticism that commanders fans would talk about.

912
00:55:05,200 --> 00:55:11,920
He tends to leave his fundamental rush lane in order to try to go for that personal glory

913
00:55:11,920 --> 00:55:13,520
that puts them in a rough spot.

914
00:55:13,520 --> 00:55:18,560
And one of the things we've seen the bills offense be extremely good at just this last

915
00:55:18,560 --> 00:55:20,760
week is the draw play.

916
00:55:20,760 --> 00:55:24,520
And I think James Cook will have some opportunities and draw plays where Josh Allen, you know,

917
00:55:24,520 --> 00:55:29,680
drops back to pass and then hands it off to Jake and James Cook takes off, especially

918
00:55:29,680 --> 00:55:34,400
if they're out of position and out of their rush lanes, that's going to possibly give up

919
00:55:34,400 --> 00:55:36,280
some some big chunks of the yardage.

920
00:55:36,280 --> 00:55:37,560
So I think there's opportunities here.

921
00:55:37,560 --> 00:55:40,280
I think the bills need to continue to be efficient.

922
00:55:40,280 --> 00:55:45,200
I think this is a game where the bills need to go over the top, you know, multiple times

923
00:55:45,200 --> 00:55:50,320
because the strength of the Washington defense is, you know, I think they have solid safeties.

924
00:55:50,320 --> 00:55:51,560
Their safety depth is pretty good.

925
00:55:51,560 --> 00:55:53,920
And they tell them back there's pretty good.

926
00:55:53,920 --> 00:55:59,960
Their safety depth and their pass rush make the over the top says too long to develop and

927
00:55:59,960 --> 00:56:01,560
into the strength of their coverage.

928
00:56:01,560 --> 00:56:06,000
So really, I like to see the Buffalo Bills work the middle of the field, establish the

929
00:56:06,000 --> 00:56:09,600
continue to do some some draw plays.

930
00:56:09,600 --> 00:56:13,400
This might be a team that the bills can even the bills are bad at screenplays because everyone

931
00:56:13,400 --> 00:56:14,720
plays them in zone.

932
00:56:14,720 --> 00:56:18,560
I think this could be a team that the bills hit with some screens because they have a

933
00:56:18,560 --> 00:56:19,920
vulnerability there.

934
00:56:19,920 --> 00:56:21,600
But what do you thoughts?

935
00:56:21,600 --> 00:56:23,000
No, I agree with you.

936
00:56:23,000 --> 00:56:27,440
And it's interesting that we went from the real and not real segment to this because

937
00:56:27,440 --> 00:56:28,440
I agree with you.

938
00:56:28,440 --> 00:56:32,920
I think there's some vulnerabilities for this Washington defense at the outside cornerback

939
00:56:32,920 --> 00:56:34,080
position.

940
00:56:34,080 --> 00:56:39,480
But the roof on this defense and the foundation, i.e. the safeties and the defensive line respectively,

941
00:56:39,480 --> 00:56:41,520
they are pretty solid.

942
00:56:41,520 --> 00:56:46,080
That hasn't played out in statistical metrics yet for this Washington defense.

943
00:56:46,080 --> 00:56:48,880
But I don't believe that's real because we're only two weeks in.

944
00:56:48,880 --> 00:56:54,240
But right now, Washington's best defensive personnel settings have actually done a good

945
00:56:54,240 --> 00:56:56,080
job of defending short passes.

946
00:56:56,080 --> 00:57:03,040
So passes that are within less than 10 yards downfield, they only allow completion rate

947
00:57:03,040 --> 00:57:08,000
close to 69% on those average type of area at attempts.

948
00:57:08,000 --> 00:57:12,120
Because the league average right now is about 73.9%.

949
00:57:12,120 --> 00:57:13,880
Sidebar, that's terrible.

950
00:57:13,880 --> 00:57:16,080
Can no one defend the short pass anymore?

951
00:57:16,080 --> 00:57:17,080
Right?

952
00:57:17,080 --> 00:57:18,080
Seriously.

953
00:57:18,080 --> 00:57:23,120
But when it comes to throws of 10 plus yards downfield, the vulnerabilities of the outside

954
00:57:23,120 --> 00:57:29,040
corner have really exposed their safeties to some some inopportune coverage schemes.

955
00:57:29,040 --> 00:57:30,200
We're only two weeks in.

956
00:57:30,200 --> 00:57:31,200
I agree with you.

957
00:57:31,200 --> 00:57:32,800
I don't think that's real.

958
00:57:32,800 --> 00:57:37,080
But it is worth noting that this Washington defense as far as what they've put on tape

959
00:57:37,080 --> 00:57:41,160
so far is that they are bad at defending the deep ball.

960
00:57:41,160 --> 00:57:45,520
I think this defensive front is going to show Josh some looks that may bait him.

961
00:57:45,520 --> 00:57:50,480
I'll I think back to that weird Atlanta game that they played a couple of years ago, right?

962
00:57:50,480 --> 00:57:55,800
Where AJ Terrell just like was an absolute master at baiting Allen into the throws he

963
00:57:55,800 --> 00:57:57,080
wanted to take.

964
00:57:57,080 --> 00:58:01,480
I think you're probably going to see a little bit of that from this defensive unit for Washington.

965
00:58:01,480 --> 00:58:05,040
Because again, I don't think the numbers two weeks in are real for them.

966
00:58:05,040 --> 00:58:09,560
I think this is a team that can defend the deep ball, but the boundaries are going to

967
00:58:09,560 --> 00:58:11,440
be very, very vulnerable.

968
00:58:11,440 --> 00:58:14,880
So it's going to be interesting to see like Josh again, and this is where that time to

969
00:58:14,880 --> 00:58:19,520
throw comes into play 2.9 seconds in week two.

970
00:58:19,520 --> 00:58:23,560
It's going to be interesting to see if Josh can chop that down just a little bit, because

971
00:58:23,560 --> 00:58:28,720
this is going to be a much better defensive front than what they played against Las Vegas.

972
00:58:28,720 --> 00:58:32,840
So I think key to success here is Josh needs to get the ball out quickly.

973
00:58:32,840 --> 00:58:36,720
He's got to force Washington into getting out of their comfort zone and then attack

974
00:58:36,720 --> 00:58:41,360
outside and downfield and expose some of those the lack of depth at the outside corner

975
00:58:41,360 --> 00:58:42,360
position.

976
00:58:42,360 --> 00:58:47,120
So we'll see if he's got the patience to do it, but it'll be very interesting.

977
00:58:47,120 --> 00:58:50,680
I'll be interested to see how James Cook fares against the defensive front as well.

978
00:58:50,680 --> 00:58:55,280
It's not a great run stopping unit, and there could be some opportunities for them there.

979
00:58:55,280 --> 00:58:59,440
Ultimately, I would like to see James Cook get over under 19 and a half touches Dalton

980
00:58:59,440 --> 00:59:06,720
concaid with a red zone TD and Josh complete passes to 700 more receivers consistent from

981
00:59:06,720 --> 00:59:08,600
weeks one through three.

982
00:59:08,600 --> 00:59:11,000
But I think that's the recipe for success for this team.

983
00:59:11,000 --> 00:59:12,000
I think so too.

984
00:59:12,000 --> 00:59:16,600
And your prediction, you nailed it on the James Cook touches.

985
00:59:16,600 --> 00:59:21,120
You nailed it on the Biltswind of Josh Allen turned it over less than two times.

986
00:59:21,120 --> 00:59:25,040
You completely whiffed on Jacobs runs rough shot all over the bills.

987
00:59:25,040 --> 00:59:27,600
Dude, I'm just so strong.

988
00:59:27,600 --> 00:59:28,760
I'm like a broken clock.

989
00:59:28,760 --> 00:59:33,560
I will the like two games where the bills rush defense absolutely craps the battle be

990
00:59:33,560 --> 00:59:35,560
like see I told you told you.

991
00:59:35,560 --> 00:59:40,040
Yeah, you're going to just point to those even though the other 15 games the bills hold

992
00:59:40,040 --> 00:59:41,920
the opposing team under 50 yards rush.

993
00:59:41,920 --> 00:59:43,760
You'd be like, yeah, but remember that one time.

994
00:59:43,760 --> 00:59:46,760
Hey, man, all anyone remembers is the last game that you play.

995
00:59:46,760 --> 00:59:48,760
That's all I'm saying.

996
00:59:48,760 --> 00:59:50,760
So let's let's do that.

997
00:59:50,760 --> 00:59:52,640
I'm good if you want to do some predictions.

998
00:59:52,640 --> 00:59:53,640
Sure to go wrong.

999
00:59:53,640 --> 00:59:54,640
I would love to do some prediction.

1000
00:59:54,640 --> 00:59:55,640
Sure to go wrong.

1001
00:59:55,640 --> 00:59:56,640
Where do you want to start?

1002
00:59:56,640 --> 00:59:57,640
I've got I've got some unique.

1003
00:59:57,640 --> 00:59:59,640
I've got a couple of interesting ones for this.

1004
00:59:59,640 --> 01:00:01,640
But yeah, give me yours.

1005
01:00:01,640 --> 01:00:02,640
All right.

1006
01:00:02,640 --> 01:00:10,000
So prediction number one, Ed Oliver over under half a sack.

1007
01:00:10,000 --> 01:00:11,000
I'm back here.

1008
01:00:11,000 --> 01:00:16,360
I'm back to this right at Oliver to me is is just due to bring the quarterback down and

1009
01:00:16,360 --> 01:00:22,880
quite frankly, he is maybe the best pass rusher that the Buffalo this Buffalo Bills unit is

1010
01:00:22,880 --> 01:00:25,480
rolling out there, especially we're recording this.

1011
01:00:25,480 --> 01:00:28,440
We don't know what the injury report for Friday is going to be yet.

1012
01:00:28,440 --> 01:00:32,720
But when you've got Leonard, who is showing up in the injury report is a do not practice.

1013
01:00:32,720 --> 01:00:36,000
Terrell Bernard is has been limited in practice.

1014
01:00:36,000 --> 01:00:39,040
This is a bit of a dinged up defensive unit.

1015
01:00:39,040 --> 01:00:42,560
I feel like they're going to need Oliver to absolutely play out of his mind.

1016
01:00:42,560 --> 01:00:44,840
And to me, that's Oliver getting a sack.

1017
01:00:44,840 --> 01:00:47,200
All right, I like it.

1018
01:00:47,200 --> 01:00:48,200
So you're going over.

1019
01:00:48,200 --> 01:00:49,200
I'm going over.

1020
01:00:49,200 --> 01:00:50,200
I think Oliver gets a sack.

1021
01:00:50,200 --> 01:00:51,720
Yeah, I'm going over to.

1022
01:00:51,720 --> 01:00:52,720
All right.

1023
01:00:52,720 --> 01:00:54,960
Do you have a what's your next prediction?

1024
01:00:54,960 --> 01:00:59,640
My next prediction is hang on.

1025
01:00:59,640 --> 01:01:01,640
I'm pulling it up in my notes right now.

1026
01:01:01,640 --> 01:01:02,880
All right.

1027
01:01:02,880 --> 01:01:03,880
Let's see.

1028
01:01:03,880 --> 01:01:07,560
James Cook over under half a touchdown.

1029
01:01:07,560 --> 01:01:12,280
So will James Cook get his first touchdown?

1030
01:01:12,280 --> 01:01:13,280
You're going over.

1031
01:01:13,280 --> 01:01:14,280
I'm going under.

1032
01:01:14,280 --> 01:01:15,280
You're going on.

1033
01:01:15,280 --> 01:01:16,280
Yep.

1034
01:01:16,280 --> 01:01:21,400
I think I think the Bills and I think McDermott in particular, like when McDermott talks about

1035
01:01:21,400 --> 01:01:26,600
that running back room, he loves something like these bigger guys that they have brought

1036
01:01:26,600 --> 01:01:27,600
in.

1037
01:01:27,600 --> 01:01:28,600
He loves Harris.

1038
01:01:28,600 --> 01:01:29,600
He loves Murray.

1039
01:01:29,600 --> 01:01:36,920
And I think for Cook, I think for Cook to really like be a factor in the scoring game,

1040
01:01:36,920 --> 01:01:38,640
I think he's going to have to break one.

1041
01:01:38,640 --> 01:01:43,600
I just think McDermott loves the change of pace that Murray and Harris bring in the red

1042
01:01:43,600 --> 01:01:48,160
zone and the red zone efficiency for this Bills team has been really good through two

1043
01:01:48,160 --> 01:01:50,520
games because of those two guys.

1044
01:01:50,520 --> 01:01:53,160
I just don't think Cook is going to get a lot of opportunities.

1045
01:01:53,160 --> 01:01:57,960
So unless he breaks one, I'm going to go under because I think red zone is going to be Harris

1046
01:01:57,960 --> 01:01:59,520
and Murray's home.

1047
01:01:59,520 --> 01:02:00,520
Yeah.

1048
01:02:00,520 --> 01:02:04,080
No, I think you're absolutely right in that.

1049
01:02:04,080 --> 01:02:07,960
He's not going to get a rushing touch from inside 15 yards.

1050
01:02:07,960 --> 01:02:08,960
No way.

1051
01:02:08,960 --> 01:02:12,680
He has to kind of make his own hay if he wants to do down there.

1052
01:02:12,680 --> 01:02:16,560
I think it's more likely that Josh Allen gets his first rushing touchdown.

1053
01:02:16,560 --> 01:02:17,560
Ooh, spicy.

1054
01:02:17,560 --> 01:02:19,120
I like it.

1055
01:02:19,120 --> 01:02:20,120
All right.

1056
01:02:20,120 --> 01:02:23,400
Do you have any others?

1057
01:02:23,400 --> 01:02:25,160
Those are the only two that I got.

1058
01:02:25,160 --> 01:02:26,320
So what do you got?

1059
01:02:26,320 --> 01:02:34,000
So I have Trek Scherfiel either gets two or more first downs or his or a touchdown this

1060
01:02:34,000 --> 01:02:35,000
game.

1061
01:02:35,000 --> 01:02:36,000
Wow.

1062
01:02:36,000 --> 01:02:38,560
That's interesting because he has not caught a ball for this unit yet.

1063
01:02:38,560 --> 01:02:41,800
That's why I think it's you just think he's due.

1064
01:02:41,800 --> 01:02:45,280
Well, not even due because it's not even like he's gotten targets, right?

1065
01:02:45,280 --> 01:02:50,600
But I think that that he because of what they put on tape for the first two weeks, I think

1066
01:02:50,600 --> 01:02:55,640
that the Washington commanders are a good coach unit is going to come in trying to shut

1067
01:02:55,640 --> 01:03:02,640
down the past past root concepts that the bills have shown to digs Davis.

1068
01:03:02,640 --> 01:03:05,880
Diggs Davis and concave really like that's been their kind of bread and butter.

1069
01:03:05,880 --> 01:03:07,920
I think they're going to try to shut that down.

1070
01:03:07,920 --> 01:03:14,480
So I'd like to see Scherfield or Shakir get more looks this game as a, you know, they

1071
01:03:14,480 --> 01:03:16,080
put the focus on somebody else.

1072
01:03:16,080 --> 01:03:19,760
They need to step up for that third, you know, third receiver position.

1073
01:03:19,760 --> 01:03:23,400
Um, Deontay Hardy maybe get some some wonky looks.

1074
01:03:23,400 --> 01:03:28,400
Some of those like bubble screens or end around or something might happen.

1075
01:03:28,400 --> 01:03:32,960
But I think it's most likely that we see Scherfield show up because I think he's a good, you

1076
01:03:32,960 --> 01:03:36,840
know, wide receivers a good third option in the in the game.

1077
01:03:36,840 --> 01:03:41,040
And I think if they're trying to establish the run and if Josh Allen is under center,

1078
01:03:41,040 --> 01:03:44,000
which is something we haven't talked about yet, but I actually love that.

1079
01:03:44,000 --> 01:03:47,640
Like he's under center more doing play action and those sorts of things.

1080
01:03:47,640 --> 01:03:51,440
If they establish the run and John Shellen has some play action snaps where Scherfield's

1081
01:03:51,440 --> 01:03:55,560
on the field because he's one of the best run lockers in the wide receiver room.

1082
01:03:55,560 --> 01:04:01,600
Um, he may get looks because there's so much focus that I think that's put to shutting

1083
01:04:01,600 --> 01:04:03,920
down digs and Davis.

1084
01:04:03,920 --> 01:04:11,040
I am old enough to remember, uh, this past preseason when a lot of media were saying

1085
01:04:11,040 --> 01:04:16,440
because of the absence of digs in the emotional turmoil that he was causing on the team in

1086
01:04:16,440 --> 01:04:22,320
the preseason, that Trent Scherfield had really established himself as maybe Josh Allen's

1087
01:04:22,320 --> 01:04:23,920
favorite target.

1088
01:04:23,920 --> 01:04:27,760
Here we are three weeks in and Scherfield doesn't have a doesn't have a pass catch

1089
01:04:27,760 --> 01:04:28,760
to his name.

1090
01:04:28,760 --> 01:04:29,760
Right.

1091
01:04:29,760 --> 01:04:30,760
And that, listen, I love Scherfield.

1092
01:04:30,760 --> 01:04:32,400
That's not a knock on Scherfield, right?

1093
01:04:32,400 --> 01:04:39,000
But I think and we have seen this pretty consistently with the exception of maybe a manual Sanders

1094
01:04:39,000 --> 01:04:44,240
is that when the Buffalo bills bring in new pass catchers to this unit, again, the exception

1095
01:04:44,240 --> 01:04:47,400
being Sanders because him and Joshua were great.

1096
01:04:47,400 --> 01:04:54,680
Um, it takes them a long time to get integrated into this offensive flow because Allen loves

1097
01:04:54,680 --> 01:04:56,180
digs.

1098
01:04:56,180 --> 01:05:00,640
Allen loves Davis and he's developed a very quick chemistry with concade, but we also

1099
01:05:00,640 --> 01:05:07,380
haven't seen concade really, um, really like targeted with any type of double digit numbers

1100
01:05:07,380 --> 01:05:08,380
at this point.

1101
01:05:08,380 --> 01:05:12,320
I think he peaked last week where he had six targets and like five catchers or something

1102
01:05:12,320 --> 01:05:13,360
like that.

1103
01:05:13,360 --> 01:05:15,840
So I'm going to go on.

1104
01:05:15,840 --> 01:05:17,160
I'm going to go under.

1105
01:05:17,160 --> 01:05:20,960
I think Scherfield probably nets his first catch, but I think it's like a, I think it's

1106
01:05:20,960 --> 01:05:23,640
for a little thinking down a seven yard deal.

1107
01:05:23,640 --> 01:05:26,320
But I do think Scherfield's best is yet to come.

1108
01:05:26,320 --> 01:05:27,320
And same thing with Hardy.

1109
01:05:27,320 --> 01:05:29,840
I just, I don't think this offense is a finished product yet.

1110
01:05:29,840 --> 01:05:31,360
I just don't.

1111
01:05:31,360 --> 01:05:35,840
I have Gregor's over a half sack under under.

1112
01:05:35,840 --> 01:05:39,400
I'm not even hesitating under and I get it.

1113
01:05:39,400 --> 01:05:42,520
These tackles for the commanders are their weak spot on the interior.

1114
01:05:42,520 --> 01:05:44,040
They're a little bit stronger.

1115
01:05:44,040 --> 01:05:51,560
I have seen against two sub par offensive line units, Greg or so be less than Jerry Hughes.

1116
01:05:51,560 --> 01:05:52,560
Right.

1117
01:05:52,560 --> 01:05:59,760
And this is a dude who he has been saying GM's have been saying like I double digit sacks.

1118
01:05:59,760 --> 01:06:02,360
This is going to be the breakout season for Russo.

1119
01:06:02,360 --> 01:06:06,040
And we just haven't seen it yet.

1120
01:06:06,040 --> 01:06:10,800
And I think we're always going to look back on this, this weird kind of COVID year draft

1121
01:06:10,800 --> 01:06:16,780
where Russo and Basham went back to back, but you've got pass rushers that were taken

1122
01:06:16,780 --> 01:06:22,880
in that class like Phillips, Jalen Phillips, who is playing in Miami and was Russo's teammate

1123
01:06:22,880 --> 01:06:30,480
in Miami have just taken better steps to establish themselves as relevant pass rushers.

1124
01:06:30,480 --> 01:06:34,880
And I think JJ you've said this on a multitude of occasions as well.

1125
01:06:34,880 --> 01:06:41,120
Russo while physically talented, he needs somebody to take the pressure off of him on

1126
01:06:41,120 --> 01:06:42,400
the other side of the ball.

1127
01:06:42,400 --> 01:06:44,520
He had it in Miami with Phillips.

1128
01:06:44,520 --> 01:06:47,440
He had it to start the season last year with Miller.

1129
01:06:47,440 --> 01:06:53,360
I think with Floyd, maybe not 100%, even if he plays in this game, I just don't think

1130
01:06:53,360 --> 01:06:57,960
there is a reliable stable counterpart on the other end of this defensive line that can

1131
01:06:57,960 --> 01:07:00,040
take some of the pressure off Russo.

1132
01:07:00,040 --> 01:07:05,760
And as a result, I think Russo, this game is going to be in the pressure means more

1133
01:07:05,760 --> 01:07:06,760
than sex.

1134
01:07:06,760 --> 01:07:09,120
I think he's going to get some pressure, but I don't think he's going to get home.

1135
01:07:09,120 --> 01:07:10,120
Right.

1136
01:07:10,120 --> 01:07:12,040
I just through two games.

1137
01:07:12,040 --> 01:07:15,040
And again, two really bad offensive line units.

1138
01:07:15,040 --> 01:07:17,960
This whole bills pass rush is past rush is bad.

1139
01:07:17,960 --> 01:07:21,240
But Russo in particular is really disappointed.

1140
01:07:21,240 --> 01:07:27,400
As a card carrying and jersey owning Russo fan, that really pains me to compare him to

1141
01:07:27,400 --> 01:07:28,400
Jerus.

1142
01:07:28,400 --> 01:07:30,640
I it's okay.

1143
01:07:30,640 --> 01:07:31,640
It's okay.

1144
01:07:31,640 --> 01:07:32,640
I think he gets over.

1145
01:07:32,640 --> 01:07:36,000
I think that he shows up because he usually has one.

1146
01:07:36,000 --> 01:07:40,280
You know, usually has one game in the season where where he gets like he has a dominant

1147
01:07:40,280 --> 01:07:41,280
performance.

1148
01:07:41,280 --> 01:07:42,280
I think this might be it.

1149
01:07:42,280 --> 01:07:43,280
Go over.

1150
01:07:43,280 --> 01:07:45,800
I think he gets a set this game.

1151
01:07:45,800 --> 01:07:47,480
And I'm very hopeful of it.

1152
01:07:47,480 --> 01:07:48,480
How about score predictions?

1153
01:07:48,480 --> 01:07:49,480
You ready for those?

1154
01:07:49,480 --> 01:07:50,480
I am ready for those.

1155
01:07:50,480 --> 01:07:51,480
All right.

1156
01:07:51,480 --> 01:07:55,840
So the as I mentioned, this game opened in some sports books at seven and a half favoring

1157
01:07:55,840 --> 01:07:58,360
the bills that number is down to six.

1158
01:07:58,360 --> 01:08:01,760
I actually this is one of the few games where I think the bills don't cover.

1159
01:08:01,760 --> 01:08:05,120
I think this is going to be a sneaky tough trap game for them.

1160
01:08:05,120 --> 01:08:11,160
Hopefully Buffalo is not overlooking this game to week four in Miami because the bills

1161
01:08:11,160 --> 01:08:17,600
do not want to go back home one and two staring down the barrel of one and three to end the

1162
01:08:17,600 --> 01:08:20,040
first quarter of their season against Miami.

1163
01:08:20,040 --> 01:08:23,880
So this feels like a game that the bills need to kind of keep pace in the division and keep

1164
01:08:23,880 --> 01:08:27,600
pace in the conference, but I think it's going to be close because Washington this is a

1165
01:08:27,600 --> 01:08:29,320
prove it game for them to.

1166
01:08:29,320 --> 01:08:35,000
So my final score prediction here is going to be 28 to 20.

1167
01:08:35,000 --> 01:08:36,560
Excuse me.

1168
01:08:36,560 --> 01:08:39,240
Sorry, I'm coughing for some reason.

1169
01:08:39,240 --> 01:08:41,240
2724 bills.

1170
01:08:41,240 --> 01:08:43,400
Yeah, you have it pretty close.

1171
01:08:43,400 --> 01:08:53,000
So I I have the same exact bill score for for the bills, but I don't think that the commanders

1172
01:08:53,000 --> 01:08:54,160
get to 24.

1173
01:08:54,160 --> 01:08:57,080
I think that the the commanders get one less touchdown.

1174
01:08:57,080 --> 01:08:58,680
I think it's 2717.

1175
01:08:58,680 --> 01:08:59,680
Okay.

1176
01:08:59,680 --> 01:09:03,840
And I think for the majority of the game, it's 2710.

1177
01:09:03,840 --> 01:09:05,200
So you've got the bills covering this.

1178
01:09:05,200 --> 01:09:09,600
Yeah, I've got the bills covering and I also have the bills controlling this game.

1179
01:09:09,600 --> 01:09:14,120
I think that I don't think it's going to 40, you know, 40 minutes, 20 minutes of time possession

1180
01:09:14,120 --> 01:09:15,520
like last week.

1181
01:09:15,520 --> 01:09:21,480
But I do think that they're going to kind of they're going to have too much for this Washington

1182
01:09:21,480 --> 01:09:24,520
commanders defense to handle.

1183
01:09:24,520 --> 01:09:28,760
If Josh Allen is playing game manager, Josh, and they're getting the the ball out fast enough

1184
01:09:28,760 --> 01:09:32,400
to completely neuter that pass rush.

1185
01:09:32,400 --> 01:09:38,260
And I just think the reason I have it 2717 is I don't think that the commanders offense

1186
01:09:38,260 --> 01:09:43,920
is going to have enough enough of a counter punch to the Buffalo Bills and coverage.

1187
01:09:43,920 --> 01:09:49,000
I think the Buffalo Bills are one of the better teams in the NFL when it comes to coverage

1188
01:09:49,000 --> 01:09:52,400
covering pass and I think that they'll even if they don't have the pass rush, they will

1189
01:09:52,400 --> 01:10:00,360
have the coverage necessary to shut down this this, you know, commanders offensive attack.

1190
01:10:00,360 --> 01:10:06,920
Again, I just can't the statistics of Sean McDermott off our defense against a rookie

1191
01:10:06,920 --> 01:10:14,640
or young first year quarterback is so overwhelmingly positive for the bills that, you know, even

1192
01:10:14,640 --> 01:10:18,840
if Ron Rivera has more familiarity and there's some other things and Eric Biafemi has more

1193
01:10:18,840 --> 01:10:22,280
familiarity with the way that the bills play defense.

1194
01:10:22,280 --> 01:10:29,880
I don't think that there's going to be enough success for Sam Howell against the bills defense

1195
01:10:29,880 --> 01:10:33,800
to to really, you know, vault the commanders into position.

1196
01:10:33,800 --> 01:10:38,480
I don't think the bills are going to overlook this team because I do think that they got

1197
01:10:38,480 --> 01:10:41,680
slapped across the face against the Jets.

1198
01:10:41,680 --> 01:10:45,120
And so they are still in the humble and hungry mode.

1199
01:10:45,120 --> 01:10:50,640
And again, Sam Howell as a new quarterback in the league, I think we'll struggle against

1200
01:10:50,640 --> 01:10:51,640
the defense.

1201
01:10:51,640 --> 01:10:52,640
All right.

1202
01:10:52,640 --> 01:10:57,840
So you are taking bills to cover, but you're taking the under on the points.

1203
01:10:57,840 --> 01:11:01,880
I'm taking the bills not to cover, but I'm taking the over on the points.

1204
01:11:01,880 --> 01:11:02,960
All right.

1205
01:11:02,960 --> 01:11:06,240
So you've got the under I've got the over and JJ.

1206
01:11:06,240 --> 01:11:08,920
The other thing that is over is this podcast.

1207
01:11:08,920 --> 01:11:13,160
So you've been crushing the transitions, you know, dude, I'm telling you, I'm telling

1208
01:11:13,160 --> 01:11:15,960
you, I'm bringing my A game this year with these transitions.

1209
01:11:15,960 --> 01:11:18,440
So JJ, good potting with you as always.

1210
01:11:18,440 --> 01:11:19,440
Bill's mafia.

1211
01:11:19,440 --> 01:11:20,440
Thanks for listening.

1212
01:11:20,440 --> 01:11:23,920
As always, like, share and subscribe wherever you get your podcast.

1213
01:11:23,920 --> 01:11:26,480
Google Apple Spotify, drop us a review.

1214
01:11:26,480 --> 01:11:44,880
And as always, go bills.