All right, we're back with Buffalo bread podcast. This is the post week one pre week
to Todd to get you ready for Sunday versus the Las Vegas Raiders. I think everyone at
this point has basically gone through all the stages of priests that were involved those
of the bills versus jets abysmal performance by Josh Allen. We can talk a bit about that
game and and we're ready. We're adjuvenated and less than 24 hours. You know, the Buffalo
bills are going to be facing down the Raiders at home. It's a home opener. I think it's
a it's a winnable game and we'll get into all of it here. Dan, how are you doing?
Heavy side JJ heavy side. I want to remind you of something that you had said on the
last pod at the very tail end of our preview show for the Jets game. You said, Bill's
mafia, if the offensive line doesn't perform any better than they did last season, take
heart in knowing this will be the best defensive front they face probably all season. Well,
they didn't play great. Alan was sacked five times throughout the game, hurried on a number
of other passes. I know we're going to talk about Josh, everyone has talked about Josh.
But I think if I had to give you my Twitter length summary of what that game was, it was
a copy and paste from week nine, with a couple of different caveats when we played the Jets
last season. And it felt similarly demoralizing as it did with the Cincinnati Bengals game
to see that kind of physical dominance occur again in the trenches. A lot of a lot of trends,
a lot of patterns that we were used to seeing with the bills last year when the offense
was really struggling emerged again. Now there are one or two ways you can take it. You can
be like, listen, the Jets are just a great defense, literally built man for man, pound
for pound to counter everything the bills can do. And they just have this team's number.
Or you can say that maybe some of these sustained problems over the last 19 and 20 games that
we've seen from this bill squad. Maybe these things are settling in to be some of our reality
as opposed to just one off against these really physically dominant teams. JJ, where do you
want to start with this? You want to start with Josh? You want to start with the line?
Do you want to talk about feelings? Where do you want to go?
So so let's let's, you know, I think it's a good it's a good news, bad news situation
when I think about it. So let's start with the bad news first. And that would be the
offense and that would be Josh Allen. And I think that I would like to start by saying,
I have zero criticism for Ken Dorsey. I have very little criticism for the offensive line,
which you're making a face. People can't see this, but you're making a face.
Interesting. Even Spencer Brown. I'll get no, no, I have extreme criticism for Spencer
Brown. The line as an aggregate, I thought, okay, against probably the best defensive line
in the league, if not top three, the line as an aggregate, I think did okay. I think
that the majority of their problems was Josh Allen. The play calls were there. The open
receivers were there. The check downs were there. The opportunities were there. Prophets
you never go broke when you think profits, right? Like, and he just was he was refusing
to do it. He was playing sugar high Josh from from basically the first snap. My, you know,
I'll bring my wife's opinion of this season in, which I hope is not a prophetic opinion.
She said, Josh Allen has so much crap going on off the field because she of course, like
sees all the like, you know, the, the takes and the celebrity gossip stuff. She's like,
he's got so much going on off the field. He's either going to light the league on fire and
be a surefire, like whatever it is, because she doesn't know, like the all pro MVP stuff.
She's like, he's the other going to do that. Or he's going to implode like a dying star.
And so that when the game kicked off, and she said, this is why you're now making another
face. This is why I said, I hope it's not prophetic. But the game kicked off. He had
that kind of crazy look in his eyes right after the national anthem. We saw him and it was
the same look he had in overtime at Houston playoff game early in his career. It's the
same look he had in the first chiefs playoff loss, not the, you know, 13 second game, but
the other chiefs playoff loss where he just like the moment looked too big for him. And
it feels like, you know, when it when it gets that way, he grips and he gets the Yips to
use the baseball turbine like so much. And then he starts just just fire off interceptions,
fumbling snaps, trying to jump over three defenders when he still has 10 yards to go.
Like that I think is it looked to me, he looked in this Jets game, like he looked in the late
in the game and over time with against the Houston Texans in the playoffs, his first
playoff run.
Yeah, that is a that is a decent comp and you're absolutely right. It will talk a little
bit more like data stats, all that kind of stuff. But I feel the same way when I'm sitting
on my couch watching at home and I see the CBS or the Fox or the ESPN cameras zoom in
on Josh before he's about to take the snap. You can tell when Josh is in control versus
when Josh is not in control. When he's not in control, he's kind of breathing out of
his mouth. He's got like this wide eyed look, right? His eyes are darting everywhere. He's
not focused. He's seeing everything at the same time, which means he's seeing nothing.
You know what I mean? He can't see the forest because all the trees are in the way type of
a situation. And the jets are not a defense, I think that disguises coverage. They don't
need to. They just pound for pound, man for man have some really great talent. So they're
usually showing you what you can do. And Josh pre snap wasn't the problem. It was Josh post
snap and what he was diagnosing after he had the ball in his hands. Yeah, I agree with you
on the Dorsey criticism. I think a lot of bills mafia has gone to the Dorsey criticism
because the offense didn't play well for basically a second straight game against.
I struggle to use this term, but an elite opponent in the AFC with the with the with
the jets. They've seen it out back to back games where that offense is really struggled.
And I want to go to Dorsey because we all want to be right that Dorsey wasn't the guy
to follow up day ball, even though day ball lost a game 40 to nothing and almost got Daniel
Jones killed in the fourth quarter, right? Grass isn't always greener. Anyway, the jets
basically took the same game plan they had from week nine, the last time that Josh played
in the Meadowlands, and they flipped it. So rather than playing a bunch of kind of man
coverage and mixing in the Blitz in the first half, they stuck to the zone scheme that really
confused Josh in the second half of the week nine game last year. And Josh, with the exception
of the interception and the fumble did pretty well on the first half. He completed 81%
of his passes at just over 130 yards, had that touchdown strike to digs. And even though
he looked a little frenetic at times, he was playing within the system. The jets only
blitzed on about 11% of their rushes in that first half, and they played a very, very heavy
zone. They came out in the second half, and they tripled their blitz rate to almost 36%.
Josh went eight for 24. And we've said this before, you and I. Like, Josh is eventually
going to going to assimilate and figure out what you're doing. So it's not about finding
the one defense to control Josh, it's about mixing and assimilating defenses in that will
keep him guessing. And the jets did a really good job keeping him guessing, not with any
kind of like fancy disguise coverage, but the way they were mixing pressure on him.
And they really tested the right side of that offensive line heavily throughout the course
of the night. And it didn't look like Josh trusted the protection panel plays. Yeah,
it was it was Cincinnati Bengals vibes. I felt like I was watching that game and the
week nine game from from last season, all kind of bundled up into one hellish nightmare
for most of the time. Listen, long story short, Josh needs to mature and get better against
some of these two high defenses. The Holmes has done it. We're now seeing teams deployed
against the Philadelphia Eagles. And even though they're two and oh, people are questioning
the quote unquote sluggish start to Jalen Hurts season. This is what these defenses do. They
are going to take away the big play. So are you mature enough? And do you have the patience
to dink and dunk your way down the field and trust some of your playmakers with the ball
in their hand to get yards after the catch? Now, there were a couple of areas where this
offense improved the use of 12 personnel skyrocketed from last year. I mean, I think just over
40% of their snaps were in 12 personnel. We saw Kankade get mixed in a little bit, not
quite rookie of the year stuff, we got mixed in a little bit. And then about 38% of Josh's
yards were actually yards after the catch that would have my his receivers. So these
are good marginal improvements, right? Well, even the vibes and the feeling and the energy
felt like Cincinnati from last year and the butt kicking we got and the mistakes that
Josh was making. There were signs of improvement for this offense that just going to have to
build on against Las Vegas this week and against Washington and week three.
Yeah, I think that, you know, you're absolutely right. What they what they did and what other
teams have proven to do is that if you make if you get enough pressure on Josh Allen that
he loses trust in his offensive line, he will ruin the game. So, you know, he will give
you a hand the game over to you. I think that the reality we have is that, you know, the
Buffalo Bills are such a good team that all of their their three losses last year in the
regular season were games where they gave the game away to the other team. They would have
had a 16 and 0 season if they hadn't made critical errors at very particular times again. And
like you can say, well, that's the whole NFL. That's all sports, right? Like they don't
if they don't make mistakes, they win games, of course, but it's really they are such a
juggernaut of a team. They're such a talented roster that they really have to help play
help teams beat the jets and beating them by six points in overtime with four extra
possessions. And like I know that, you know, Zach Wilson is no is no Aaron Rodgers and
also just like in general, um, for Jets fans, anyone's listening, I'm sorry, like this is
crummy. That's just complete crap luck like year team invested this amazing amount of
resources into a Hall of Fame caliber quarterback who is injured four snaps into his career
with your team. And like probably I mean, everyone's like, Oh, he's coming back, I'll
come back. I don't think he's coming back. I'd be willing to put a $10 wager around
the fact that Aaron Rodgers will not take another snap of the NFL. I think he is done
because I don't think his body can take it anymore. Neither here nor there. Um, really,
what I'm saying is that the bills are good enough team that they have to give the game
away and they will give games away to good opponents. If those opponents do what looks
to be a new blueprint for handling Josh Allen, since he did it, the chiefs have done it
in the playoffs for a number of years. Um, you know, the, the dolphins kind of have it
a little bit now. They did not have it prior, but they've given him the same problem, which
is basically get enough pressure looks, find a way to maneuver around whatever protection
schemes the bills are using to get in Josh Allen's base so that he stops trusting his
protection. As soon as that happens, you have the game because he's going to start playing
hero ball. He's going to do some bonehead things. He's going to try to get the 20 point
touchdown pass with one ball. Um, and that's what we saw. I mean, the second and third
interception he threw in the game were just pitiful. They were awful. Um, the first one
also terrible. I mean, he could have easily run for the first down. He threw that ball
basically directly to the defender way over stuff digs. And so, you know, but so all of
them were, but, um, and then the fumble, the fumble was like the fumble and, you know,
against Minnesota last year on the goal line, like he just, the moment was too big for him
and he made an error. So that being said, I feel like he's been pretty pitiful against
the Jets his entire career. He's never lit them up. Um, they have a good defense and that's
what, you know, they used to snipe full him and most of it's up for it. It's, it's really
getting pressure. And so when I said, I don't have a lot of criticism for that line. It's
because I think that this Jets defensive line will ruin a lot of people's plans and a lot
of, and stifle a lot of offenses. It'll be pretty unlikely, I think for teams to get
over 20 points against them. Um, but you know, I, yeah, Spencer Brown was absolutely crap.
Um, which we know, like he had a couple of nice run, run snaps and sweeps and stuff like
that where he was out moving and kind of rolling people over. But for the most part, he is
not a starting caliber NFL player, especially on a team that passes as much as the bills
do. He is a backup at best. Um, or would probably be a solid every down starter on a team that
runs the ball more than 50% of the time or up closer to 50% of the time. So that's what
I have to say about the offense. I think that on the, you know, when it comes to the wide
receivers, um, if Dalton Kincaid, uh, has, you know, those four receptions and 36 yards
or whatever that he had in that game, um, over the course of the entire season, he
will have 68 receptions and, um, what was it? 36 doing math here doing, doing math on the
pod, doing math on the fly. I know it's always silent awkwardness. Yeah. He'll have 612
yards and, um, 68, you know, receptions, what's basically makes him be the most prolific tight
in rookie and bills history by double. So, and we don't, we don't think that'll be the
case. Yeah. We don't think that's going to be the case now. So I mean, yeah, in summary,
a lot of patterns of dysfunction that we saw last year, Josh's poor decision making, forcing
the ball down the field, we didn't need to, um, or offensive line play, particularly from
the right side. But then also a mixed bag of some improvements. They went, they completely
went away from cook in the second half, which I think is more, let me, led, led me to believe
they were falling, Dorsey was falling to, if there's any criticism he bears into some
of the habits that he got into last year, because they were not behind in that game
at any point until the fourth quarter. Um, they should not have been flinging it around
at that rate, but the offensive line was not getting a great push. Cook wasn't getting
freed up on a lot of space and Josh was not utilizing him in the, in the check down and
in the past game to free some things up. But we did see Dorsey with a pretty good game
plan coming in to get cook involved early on. I think that represents progress. Um,
Josh utilized the middle of the field way more than he did for the latter half of last
season in this game, which again, I thought was progress still forced it to the boundaries
a little bit more than any of us would have liked to have seen, but progress there. So
it was not all a bad day and there are building blocks here that the team can, um, use to
move forward in the subsequent weeks. It's a, listen, week one is always an ugly week,
especially with 17 games. Week one is kind of like a preseason game. And I know everyone
made a big deal about the Bill Stardust playing a lot, but they hadn't seen full game speed
and a full game as since they played against Cincinnati. So some of this also could have
been chalked up to Russ, but I think the underlying issue, Josh's decision making desperately
needs to change. So JJ, my question for you is, is it going to change as we welcome the
Las Vegas Raiders to Highmark Stadium at a beautiful one PM Sunday afternoon game in
Orchard Park, New York? Is Josh going to have a better game against this Josh McDaniels
led unit?
Well, I think, you know, I do believe he will. And like, I'm not, you know, I think we should
talk a little bit about the defense first, the Jets before we jump into predictions,
but I will say purely if talking about offense and Josh Allen and what I think going forward
for the season, I think he's going to improve markedly in this game because he's I think
maybe once one time in his entire career, has he ever strung two games consecutively
where he had multiple turnovers? He tends to auto overcorrect sometimes and be a little
bit more conservative with the football after he makes one of these bonehead games. And so
it's good he doesn't stack mistakes like that. Um, he you know, you go, he goes a little
bit back towards Dr. Joshua and not towards like Mr. Peterman. Um, those games in those
games after he makes a really bad start. So I think that he'll he'll come back around.
I'm looking forward to that that came tomorrow. Um, but yeah, I think I agree with your silver
silver linings. I think that using more tight ends, getting cooked going and using him in
the short passing game as well. He only hit 16 targets and touches, which was less than
you had 19 and a half was what you're you're hoping you would get. And I thought I thought
too that it was an error of Dorsey to not go a little bit harder with the run in the
second. They were not behind in that game for most of it. They could have leaned into
the run even without as much of a push because he's pretty elusive. So yeah, I think there's
some good stuff there, but um, I was really impressed with the defense for the bills.
How about you?
Yeah, yeah. I mean, listen, this is the unit that's going to get gashed by the run all
year. And we saw we saw this last year, right? Where I get it run defense, DVOA, all that
stuff, like they finished in the top four, according to advanced metrics, I get it. Everyone
looks at the box score and they say this was a good run defense. This is not a good run
defense. They played against bad running teams last year. And when they played against good
running teams, they got absolutely lit up. And it's not just the Dara Kenry breaking
an 80 yard touchdown run from his own 20. Raheem Mostert shredded this team in the regular
season and for the playoffs and the playoffs, right? That's not a good offensive line unit
in Miami, but that team was able to run on this bills front. Cincinnati was able to run
on this bills front and then use their quick passing game to really open things up across
the middle of the field. This I know statistically is a good run defense, but they're a good
run defense against bad rushing teams. The Jets are a good rushing team. That offensive
line is bad and pass pro in New York, but it's a really good run blocking unit. And
we saw that. And there's a super talented back there that we're going to have to deal
with for the next few years in Breeze Hall. We've got a similar challenge coming into
Orchard Park, Josh Jacobs coming off a really wonky week one performance against Denver
admittedly said he was still kicking off Russ from his holdout over the preseason. Let's
hope he doesn't get that motor going against the bills because this is a unit that's going
to struggle to stop the run and the Raiders are going to want to come in and run the ball.
Well, they don't have anybody behind the defensive line and that's over 220 pounds
anywhere. Yeah, you were in the back ranks. So I agree. I think that when I say I thought
the defense did well, I think that the defense is predicated on covering the pass. Like that
is what they do. Pass rush stopping, you know, people trying to pass on them and that's
they're going to give up some big runs. I think that the the huge breeze hall run that
was saved by Chris Christian Benford, which I thought was a really gutsy play and surprising
because he's actually a burner, but he somehow caught roots all think we saw really but
Oh, he did. He you could tell like even they were saying on the Manning cast. Oh, he does
it not in shape. He doesn't have his legs back yet. Right. Yeah. He would he would never
have been caught by Christian Benford if he was in full, you know, game shape or season
shape. So yeah, they're going to get burned. I think other than that one huge run though,
the backs for the jets, your in your opinion, a good running team average 2.5 yards per
area. So I think that that's I'll take that I'll take, you know, they blow up for one
or two long runs a game and then hold the rest of the snaps to 2.5 yards that you can
win a lot of games that way. Yeah, but most of that was against Zach Wilson, who's not
a threat to throw. So Buffalo is also playing a few more heavy boxes than they normally
play to just to try to trap the run out. I mean, they play a more if they play listen,
you're going to love this. I'm thinking when they play New England, right? Yeah, that
is a team that had a really good offensive performance against a good defense, a rebuilding
defense, but a good defense in Philadelphia. I think about a team that's got a that's got
some actual threats other than one wide out on the outside, and that you can't really
load up the box against and what is I get also a superior run unit. I like no, I don't
disagree with you. The numbers are what they are. But this is not a good, not a good run
defense. Period, period. And unless they're going to play Zach Wilson every week and have
the have the luxury of loading up in the box a little bit, a little bit more than they
usually do, they're going to struggle against some of these more well balanced units. They
just are.
I know, and I don't disagree with that at all. I'm worried about that for the offense.
I think that especially, you know, the bills build is like a glass cannon build. If you're
you know, a video game RPG person, like it's really about making sure that their defense
does splash plays. I think especially under McDermott, that's going to be more important
is that splash plays turn over sacks and then making sure your offense scores more than 25
points a game. I think that's what they're built around because they are going there.
There's many offenses in the league that will give this defense problems by running the
football and by the short quick passing because that's another part that I think showed up
a little bit when you know, when Zach Wilson was able to like actually get the ball out
on time to the right place. The same as we've always seen, right? Even when it was Leslie
Crazier is that the bills are in the area, but they give up their reception. They give
up six or seven yards and then they get the tackle, right? Like that's enough. Offenses
that can stay on time with that will will kill them.
Yeah, absolutely. And listen, I will pass the rush is still not good. I get they pressured
Zach Wilson a lot. They only brought the quarter back down three times in the entire game between
Wilson and Rogers and I get Wilson is a little bit more mobile. And Wilson got pressured.
I've got pressured a fair amount. I think there were nine QB hurries on Wilson, eight
QB hits and they sacked him. They sacked Wilson twice, I want to say, right? Yeah. So not a
bad overall statistical line, but they were only to bring only able to bring pressure
on Wilson on about 22% of his snaps. I mean, listen, they made the most when they could
get there, but they weren't getting there consistently. And that has been part of the
problem with his pass rush, pass rush. Floyd looked great. Floyd is as advertised that looks
like a guy who's had 10 at least 10 sacks in each of his last three seasons. Russo looked
a little bit better. Where was everybody else? Where was it Oliver?
I was just going to say, where was that Oliver was like, I want to prove I earned this money.
Right. But he had no massive split. I think he had one good run fit. Yeah. I remember
seeing. Yeah. So I like overall McDermott's scheming, but this is a this is a defense that
we should expect to regress. It's not going to be good against the run until Miller gets
back. The pass rush is not great, or at least is not to the level that it needs to be. And
I I think Trey White looks like the best player on that defensive unit right now.
Well, he was even rated pretty poorly. His tackling was abysmal. Yeah. And his coverage
was not great. A better quarterback could have roasted him a few times. Yeah. Without a doubt.
And listen, I love Poyer and Hyde. Part of it was probably dust for Hyde, but Poyer was
out of position on a lot of run. Well, you're looked his open his open field tackling was
a huge problem in that game. Huge problem in that game. And they're going to be playing
a better offense and more capable quarterback this week. Also with a supercharged front
game. It's listen, man, I think we're nine and a half point favorites in this game I
saw on Caesars. That number to me is insane. Right. So take the points if you're out there
listening. I just listen, I get what the history of Josh Allen and the bills team is about
not stacking up consecutive losses. Josh following. By the way, it's sad that we actually have
statistically meaningful data on Josh's multi turnover games versus how he plays the next
time. I know I would like that to not be a statistically meaningful measure, but it is
I know because it's happened so frequently over the last 25 games. But I get what all
with all that stuff is. But this this Raiders team is going to is going to pose I think
some unique challenges to it as a bill's defense that is simultaneously rebuilding and aging
all at the same time. Yeah. And I mean, do you want to get into the Raiders now? I think
that I do. Jets and we can get a give a quick preview of Raiders and what we believe will
happen. We've talked about, you know, the bill's offense and what it has to do basically
just Josh has to not turn the ball over four times and do what take what the defense will
give them. I believe the Raiders defense. It's really like Max Crosby and some guys.
Yeah, it's not. These are solid. Yeah, the safeties are solid. They have Marcus Peters,
who is I would say a solid starter, but not spectacular. Nate Hobbs is a pretty good nickel
porter. And really, that's about it. Like it's not not great in the linebacking core,
but too great in the defensive line other than Max Crosby. They did draft Tyree Wilson
in the top 10 out of Texas Tech. So that's somebody to keep it on. But he has looked
like maybe it's a bit of a growing growing pains as a rook and that's okay. Any thoughts
about this defense and kind of ways that the Buffalo Bills offense should attack them?
Well, I think James Cook should have over 19 and a half touches. I think I want to go
I think Dalton Kincaid should have a red zone touchdown. But I think more importantly, you
want to see you want to see Josh consistently make good decisions and take care of himself
and take care of the ball. Josh played like a man out of his mind the first eight weeks
of last season. But we also tend to forget that even in that dominant get week one performance
against LA last year, he threw two picks. And then you followed that up with a two turnover
performance in week two as well. Now, he was able to he was able to deodorize some of those
decisions with some just incredible playmaking and overall elite accuracy. But when that
went away after the injury last season, he was just left with poor decision making and
no deodorant to put over it. So I am I am not expecting a turnover free game from Josh.
Because honestly, I don't know what that looks like. The illustrious Nick Wright, who you
and I both have harsh opinions for. Yeah, he came up with a statistically for the first
time maybe in his career, an accurate statistical measure of an opinion that he was trying to
forge. And that was that over Josh's last 19 games, he has 37 total turnovers between
fumbles lost and interceptions. That's an average of two turnovers per game over his
last 19 games. Thanks. And that but that is accurate to what we have experienced over
the last 19 games. So what I would what we all would love to see is Josh have a turnover
free game. But I think it's fair to say that dude's got a little Brent Farrf and him dude
has a little Cam Newton and him. Right. And I don't know that we're ever going to see
like true turnover free, minimized risk football from Josh. I just don't know that's baked
in. So I'm kind of going against the grain on what people are saying Josh needs to do.
Yes, I think Josh needs to make better decisions. But I think Josh also needs to properly diagnose
where the weaknesses on a defense are. And I think he needs to take the opportunities
that Dorsey is scheming for him. Dorsey, again, unpopular opinion was not the problem last
year. Guys were open. Josh was just not hitting them. And part of it was the injury he didn't
have any kind of faith in his short, short, short yardage, accuracy. But part of it too
is like this is just kind of how Josh is built. So I'm going to say a winning formula for
Josh is turning the ball over under two times. But then also doing the things that we know
he needs to do, which is distribute the ball to seven or more pass catchers. We need to
see Dorsey continue to get James Cook involved in this offense as well. And we need to see
some improvement from the offensive line. Basically, all of the things that we've been asking
for for the past like season and a half, like it's boring to say the same thing over and
over, but those really are the keys to success. I don't think we should ever expect mistake
free Josh football moving forward, because I just don't think the data supports that
he can play that way.
Well, and I think yeah, I agree completely. And it's disheartening to me because I think
that we saw such a massive growth on Josh Allen's part from the first year, his rookie
year to his kind of third year, we saw a quarterback who all of a sudden was hitting
open receivers who was manipulating safeties with his eyes was punk faking guys open and
kind of you know, making these amazing whole shots over linebackers under safeties behind
corners in front of safety is like, he's got a pretty amazing arm and talent and accuracy.
And I think everyone just sort of assumed that the next logical step was that he would
make the right decisions because he started making really good decisions. I mean, the
2020 COVID season, he was you know, he looked like a man on fire that whole time. And then
he sort of hit this this area where now we have a, you know, we have this roller coaster
ride where I'm with Josh Allen as a quarterback, where, you know, injury injury games aside,
I think he was playing with the UCL sprain, which is like, it's hard to hold that against
a quarterback for seven or eight games of playing without, you know, use full use of
your arm. And so, but at the same time, that should have made him a better quarterback
by not being able to gunsling into poor choices and having to take small, you know, profit
throws. The fact that he's not not doing that even after playing hurt for so long is it's
science to me as well. And I think you're kind of putting this down to this might just
be who he is. And is that a quarterback? And this is not me suggesting that Josh Allen
be traded or they try to upgrade or find someone else that still think he's an elite talent,
of course, but it might make a ceiling for what he's capable of doing for this team for
his career, right? Like there might be a clear ceiling just like there was for breath for
breath for ended up getting you know, two Super Bowls.
He got one he won one one one one he went to two one one. So, you know, I think that
there's that capacity but that might be who who Josh Allen is he might be a gunslinger
who turns the ball over, makes bonehead plays can't control his own urges. And that's who
we get right like but that also does amazing things that only one person in the world can
do him. And we love that we love those moments.
You know, I agree. The comp may not be Patrick Mahomes. But what if it's what if it's Matthew
Stafford, right? Can we is Bill's mafia be Matt Stafford ye of the arm punt, right? Where
you know what I'm just gonna sling it down field and it's if it gets picked whatever
because you're gonna be starting on the two where you pick it off right? Yeah. So, so
if we were to say that maybe we stopped the Allen Mahomes comparisons but we really kind
of put Josh into that bucket of the Matt Stafford's of the world and the Caminootans
of the world like that that is still to me enough for the bills if they build it outright
to have a winning formula to win a Super Bowl. But I think not that I'm giving up on anything
after week one and not that I'm giving up on Josh. I am taking all of what we have seen
from the past season and a half two seasons. And again, even going back to that hot street
he started off on last year, like the through the first eight weeks he had six picks, and
he had I think eight total turnovers like averaging one per game at that point. Like
if this is who Josh is going to be, we can still win but we need to be cognizant of that.
So the message needs to be yes, listen, Josh needs to get smarter. He needs to be held
accountable for his decision making. But maybe the system needs to change a little bit too.
And maybe we should stop asking Josh to do things that maybe he's not capable of, you
know what I mean? So it's there are no easy answers. Again, I think there were some some
great silver lining from that week one game that I would like to see play out here against
the Raiders. So the thing I'd like to see James Cook continue to get involved and get
involved in the offense. Diggs got his touches. He got his targets. I am appalled by how overblown
all of this coverage about his alleged discontent are by the national media. They just they're
just looking for a story at this point, I feel like I want to see Gabe Davis get going
as well. Like this is a this is a unit that's really going to struggle to cover guys. And
I think you mentioned Nate Hobbs is the the nickel corner for this team. He is good. But
this is Mitch mismatch territory for a guy like Dalton Kincaid, right? There are matchups
that work on the bills favor here. The question is going to be, are they able to exploit them
Chandler Jones because of all the the well worn public drama between him and McDaniels
that's going on right now is not going to be playing in this particular game. On the
offensive side of the ball, the Raiders are also going to be missing Jacoby Myers as well.
So this is a this is a unit that's got Devonte Adams and like is her run fro who hasn't really
been a is Hunter and frozen really been able to put it together. You know what I mean?
Luckily to be playing but yeah, yeah. So so this is an opportunity for the bills in the
way that they need to build things out in a way that is sustainable for Josh's playstyle,
but also a path for them to win everything that they need in order to put that formula
together exists in the weaknesses of this Raiders defense. So again, and this might be too much
nuance, I don't know. I'm not expecting mistake free Josh ball. But what I want to see is Dorsey
and Josh exploit the weaknesses of this Raiders defense with strength with the strength that
this offense brings. And if that means Josh has like a three touchdown and one pick game,
and he has a fumble that he doesn't lose, I'll accept that stat line. So to me,
it's not going to be Justin Josh's stat line. It's going to be is he properly diagnosing where
he can attack the weaknesses of this defense because everything is lined up for this offense to
have a bounce back game. Yeah, absolutely. I think so too. And I think that it's I've any bills mafia
that right now that's like ringing the alarm bells about Josh Allen or Ken Dorsey or Sean McDermott,
like the stuff that I see you see out there in like the Twitter sphere, X sphere, whatever is just
ridiculous. It's people be like, oh, Ken Dorsey was trash and has always been trash. And he can't
call him Josh Allen now. Josh Allen's been throwing interceptions for his entire career. It's not
like anybody is a magic Josh whisperer and stopped him from doing bonehead things.
I will say I will say this day ball did right. And though, yeah, you know, but so here's the
thing, right? Here's the thing and feel free to depart day ball. And I know Dorsey likes to call
plays from the booth and stuff like this. Day ball, I think the legend of Brian Day ball is a
like a bit overblown and Bill's mafia's had like I remember the Brian Day ball that lost
to Urban Meyer, you know, and things like that. Exactly. Day ball was great, but it took Day
ball three years to figure it out with Josh as well. So I think we need to give Dorsey that
similar amount of space because day ball wasn't good in his first year. The second year that he
was in charge of that offense, you saw improvement, but you didn't see any great growth. And then
finally by year three, they had kicked it into high gear with some ups and downs. But I think what
day ball does better than than I've seen Dorsey do like day ball was up in the booth calling
plays as well. But day ball was also very, very well known for holding Josh accountable. And I'm
not saying Dorsey doesn't, but Dorsey had the ability to go be the Josh whisperer when day
ball was up in the booth as the QB coach, he'd be the one next to him on the bench, he'd be the one
calming him down, he'd be the one that was like kind of the the relationship between day ball
and Allen was famously good. But in game, he was the conduit between those two, right? And he was
able to put things in perspective for Josh. I don't know that Joe Brady is doing that effectively.
I would actually like to see Dorsey come out from the booth. And I like to see him on the sideline
because I think play to play, there needs to be some immediate accountability. And Dorsey was able
to do that at day balls direction. And I'd like to see Dorsey do that on his own. Well, and I think
that there's also the component of now that Sean McDermott is calling the defensive plays,
the times that you know, he the times that Sean McDermott would have otherwise to like have a
word with with Josh as a head coach without defensive play calling are gone. Like he he
has no longer has even the small amount of capacity a head coach who's not calling play by play
would have to like have a quick chat with his quarterback, that's not there anymore. So I
agree with you, I think that it could be a good time for Dorsey to come down on the sideline.
But I do depart on this myth that Brian Dable was able to coach out Josh Allen's worst,
you know, worst urges as a quarterback. I think that, you know, you'd be like, Oh, wow, he really,
you know, Josh really turned around in the second half doesn't this still a game where he threw
three interceptions, like it's not as if, you know, he had this low turnover rate with Dable,
where like he I'm not it was never different, right? Like it's always been consistently high
in turnovers and fumbles and interceptions over the course of a whole season, no matter who his
play caller has been. But it there's this like random rare thing where people believe as if
Josh was throwing 50 touchdowns to three interceptions when Dable was the was the offensive
play caller. And now he's like, he's broken, like he's been broken. And that's so it's ridiculous.
I don't, I don't buy into it. I agree with you. I think this could be a gear right game. I think
that the Raiders defense was like 26 or 27th last year. They're not a great unit across the board.
There's vulnerabilities. I think that if they can help Spencer Brown handle or at least slow down
Max Crosby, there was one series of plays in the Broncos game that the Raiders had where Max Crosby
was this would be the sole reason that the Broncos had to put like it was him alone. Like
nobody else did anything on that series. Three straight plays. He shut them down sack, you know,
pressure that caused an incompletion and then tackle for loss. Like it was just,
he's a dude that can wreck a game. It, it reeks to me of the, uh, the season opening game we play
against the Steelers a couple years back. Oh yeah. Can Hayward came, came Hayward, right? One man
wrecking crew against that Bill's unit. Yeah. And Crosby has that ability. So yeah, it's it,
and he is going to line up. I listen, if he doesn't line up 90% of the time against Spencer Brown,
I think that's male practice on the Raiders coaching staff part. Like just line him up on
Spencer Brown all game and let him go to work. Yeah. And then the things I'd like to see kind of
flip over to the other side of the ball, the things I'd like to see from the Bill's defense
against this offense is try to slow down Josh Jacobs. Jimmy Garoppolo is the king of like the
short check down West Coast style quarterback play. Um, he was pretty good at throwing deep
against the Broncos thinking through four times and completed two or three of them.
Um, it was not that he was like, you know, acing it down the sideline for 40 yards. It was really
mostly a short distributive kind of play. And that's what he's always been good at.
Um, but he will also throw interceptions. And so he's pretty interception prone.
Um, he actually, I think has the same interception per game rate as Josh Allen over his career
or close. So, um, there's opportunities there. And I think that like you said before, um,
the, uh, the Raiders have to found Adams, they have Josh Jacobs. And that's about it. Like
it's an incredibly talented team. They're right guard and right tackle. Greg, Ron, Ben, Ron, who
Bill's fans will know it was not good enough to make the team here. Um, gone and, uh, Jermaine,
Elemio, nor, uh, is the right tackle. Who's kind of bounced around a little bit. That's the,
that's the vulnerability for them as well. But actually, if you looked at their offensive line,
that feels a lot like the bill's offensive line, they've been X though a good solid above average,
you know, less tackle, solid left guard, decent center. And then it kind of declines from there
as you go across the line. So, um, there'll be opportunities. And I think that they'll, you
know, I'd also like to see some more out of, um, Terrell Bernard in this game. Cause I think he made,
he made some mistakes in communication. It seemed, um, and he kind of, he had a better game than I
expected against the Jets, but he, uh, also made some pretty big errors. And, and so I'd like to
see him do a little better. Yeah, I agree. And, but this is, this is what happens when you have
young players taking their lumps. There's a, a wide range of volatility with their, their play
level. So I agree. Bernard looked pretty bad on certain, on certain plays, but really also had
some very, very nice reps as well. So, and again, not, not bad considering the situation he was
coming out of, basically not playing at all in the preseason and being thrust into this role.
It's clear that that defense really does trust this kid. So, and, and to me with all the veterans
they have on there, age or not, um, that means something to me. Um, on, on the defensive side
of the ball, I think it's, it's simple for me. It's stop Josh Jacobs and then take advantage of
what is a bad offensive line and has been for some time into, in, um, Las Vegas and actually
sack the quarterback. I, I gotta see something from her. So I've got to see something from Oliver.
You know what I mean? Like it's just, it's time for these, it more than time for these guys to
step up. Oliver, especially who should be lining up across from Greg Van Roen, who he literally
knows from practice, should understand his tendencies, should know ways to be him because
he has that familiarity. It's the kind of thing where like Ed Oliver, second contract,
very quickly could be a bust this season. Like it could prove to be a bust and a, and a overpayment
this season. If he doesn't kind of put something on tape that proved, because he's supposedly healthy.
He has talent around him. He's up next to the Dequan Jones again. There's no reason that he
shouldn't be like lighting this thing on fire. If all that he says about being ready to go
is true. So, yep. Do you want some predictions? I sure do. All right. All right. I don't, I'm
going to go with score first. I don't think, I don't think this is going to be a 10 point win for the
bills, but I, they should win. They should win this game by a touchdown. I'm going to go, I'm
going to go 28 21. I think Jacob, I think Jacob's is going to have a game. I just listen. I, I am
the stat guy. We can both acknowledge I'm the nerd with the Excel sheets. And I am telling you
the stats with this Buffalo bills run defense are skewed because of the amount of poor rushing teams
they've played over the past couple of seasons. This is not a team that's good against the run.
It's just not good against the run. They're too light. Even with a guy like Jones anchoring the
middle, their light on the edge and then Oliver is a lighter than normal three tech as well. I
think we can acknowledge this is just not a team built to stop the run. I think J. Gubbs is going
to have a really good day. And I think that's it's going to keep them close because I think
we'll be surprised with how, how well Las Vegas is able to control the pace of the game. And I
think it's going to, I think tomorrow might be a more frustrating viewing experience than we're
mentally prepared for as bills mafia. We, we want our own 40 40 to nothing game. I don't know that
it's set up for that. I think it's set out for a bill's when and again, I'd like to see them
win in the way that we talked about. But my concerns are more on the defensive side of the
ball this game. I think that's that's valid. And I'm going to go way more optimistic. I think
that Josh happened what's happened to you. What's happened to you? I'm full of hope. We got the
baby on the way dude. Every so awesome. Everything is good. I know. Thank you. But yeah, everything's
looking up. You have that like positive like we're nesting, we're getting ready. Right. I remember,
I remember those days. Everything was sunshine and puppies for me too in those days. In those days.
That's right. Just make sure you're sleeping now. Sleep now. You know, as much as I can.
But anyway, I think that the bills think it's a party. I think it's home opener. I think the
crowd's going to be juiced up. I think the players all are really hungry to show better and to like
come out and really make a commitment. And I think that includes Josh Hanlon. I think he's going to
be, you know, we always talk about this. When is he going to wake up from like these childish plays
that ruin everything? I don't think that I think it's part of who he is. But I do think that he
will take it more seriously and maybe, you know, rein it in for this game. So I think the bills
win 31 17. I do think they cover. I think that it's a party and Kim Kade gets his first TD,
his first Tuddy as a folklore. That would be nice. And let's get James Cook going as well on this
game. Yes. All right. So listen, I'm going to I have my the rest of my game predictions I am
sticking with from last week. James James Cook, neat over 19 and a half touches. He's got to have
at least 20 to me in this game. As you mentioned earlier at 16 against the Jets. Dalton Kincaid
needs to have a red zone touchdown. Like this is the game where you want to see offensively
everything for this Buffalo Bills the way that they rebuilt and retooled. This is the game where
all of those checkboxes that they hit in the off season should be on full display. I have a sneaky
feeling that after this game is done, we're going to be talking more about the performance of the
defense than we are in the offense getting right. Yeah, I'm going to go back to my Oliver takes
that he has to prove something to me. And I'd like to see at Oliver over over a half sack.
For the game. God, that's fools gold. I'm going under. Right. I mean, I just I said last season
that guy was going to leave the team and sacks from the interior. I remember, dude, it was like
I've had some doozies. But man, that one I ended up with some egg on my face after that one. So
yeah. So I'm just always going to take the under on Oliver until he proves like until he just proves
anything. Right. Like I get like football guys, guys that watch the film, they say Oliver like
does a bunch of stuff that doesn't show up in the stat sheet. We need him to do stuff that shows up
in the stat sheet. Well, I think we need him to do these things. I know what you're talking about.
And like, it's so funny because at Oliver gets all this credibility for playing. It's funny
because so he's undersized, right? Yes. And so the people who watch the film, they're like, oh,
they're like, oh, my gosh, he's able to anchor way better than someone of his size should be able
to anchor. And you're like, OK, but does that mean he's blowing the plate? Oh, no, he got washed
out of the plate completely. He just surprisingly anchored better than he should for his weight.
And it's like, well, he didn't do anything good. And I don't care how impressed you are with him
playing above his weight class when he still isn't making an impact. I know. It's he is a he is a
he is a slightly below average shy defensive lineman and a very tiny, tiny defense. Like,
it's a small dude. It's a small defense that's getting older every week. It's I think the off
I'm talking to you all from your team. I have a really small old.
That's true. It's a tiny old man, tiny old man running around. They're feeble and they're ancient.
And now and listen, I love so many of the guys on the defensive side of the ball. Again,
poyer, poyer, like one of the all timers for me, right? Love hide, love love tray, all that stuff,
right? Milano will always be my Bobby Boucher. But but yeah, man, it's an undersized aging group.
And again, everyone's focusing this week with their Josh takes and the Dorsey takes and the
offensive takes. I I saw some concerning things from that defense and that Jets game. And I think
if they were playing a playing anyone other than Zach Wilson, I think it would have been a different
story. And they are now playing Zach Wilson this week, they're playing granted a journeyman,
but a more polished veteran QB with a solid running game behind him. Listen, I think,
I think the bills pull it out. But I think the topic of discussion is going to be the defense
after this game. Okay. All right, cool. Reasonable. Thank you. Thank you for that. I agree. I think
that's reasonable. All right, cool. So it is also reasonable for you listening at home to like,
share and subscribe wherever you get your podcast, Google Apple Spotify, drop us a review. And as
always, go bills, go bills.