All right, and welcome back to the Buffalo bread podcast. We're intermittent this early
end season. We're in the end of preseason. The Buffalo bills have resolved their 53 man
roster for the moment. It's sure to change, you know, maybe one or two positions here.
In the short term, they actually cut their long snapper Reid Ferguson, which is always
expected because he specifically has his contract structured so that he can be signed back later
so they can kind of sneak somebody on to IR. Something being has done over and over, but
not really too many surprises. Also, we have a trade to talk about Dan. How are you feeling
about this 53 man roster in general?
Normally, I hate preseason predictions. I think the prediction business is silly. That
being said, those of us that pay close attention to the bills pretty much expected that this
would be the 53 man roster. So in an era where I think predictions are silly, I'm also going
to hypocritically take credit because I basically call this 53 man roster and I'm feeling pretty
good about that. Generally speaking, I was not surprised by the moves, but also heartened
by a couple of them as well. And we'll get to this when we talk specifically, I think
about the offensive line. We had been through the dregs that were Roger Seifold last year
and David Quessenberry. And we hoped against hope that the bills would find an answer to
not bring Quessenberry back this season. Lo and behold, it looks like they did. And what's
more is they continued a really positive trend of getting younger and a little bit more athletic
on that offensive line as well. So some heartening moves there. Now, if only Bean could draft
better in the second round of drafts, JJ, I think we'd be okay. But I think we should
start there. So before we dig too deep in the 53 man roster, to understand where things
landed, it is best to look at it through the lens first of a trade that the Buffalo Bills
orchestrated with Buffalo Bills, New Jersey, i.e. the New York Giants and former bills
administrator, Joe Shane, who was part of the bills GM regime when they drafted one boogie
bash him, who has now been traded to the New York Giants for basically what amounts to
a swap of late round picks. I think the bills get something like a fifth round pick and
they'll send a seventh round pick and boogie bash him to the Giants, something to that
effect. I think it's a sixth. It's not a sixth. I think they improved from seven to
six. Unreal. So JJ, here is here is I'm just going off the top of my head. So tell me if
I'm wrong. Here is the second round draft history of Brandon being thus far. I want to say it
was a Jones, then Cody Ford, then AJ Epineza, then boogie bash him. Right?
Yep. That's your right so far. And I would say the Z is probably a McDermott. Because
that was 17. That wasn't his draft class. It wasn't being strapped. It was true. It
was a Whaley's draft class. Technically. And McDermott. Yeah. But McDermott was running
that thing and him and Bean are like usually lockstep. James Cook and Osiris Torrance.
Now high hopes for Cook and Torrance looks like he's going to start over baits. So Ben
may be correct. Yes. Bean may be correcting it over recent history, we hope to get some
of these young second round picks to produce. But bash him like Cody Ford traded while still
in their rookie contract on second round. This has been a pain point, I think for the
Buffalo Bills. And you could really even extend it into the third round if you wanted to go
that far too. Jury's still out on Gabe Davis. But you've had what Terrell Bernard? You've
had Dorian Williams who looks like he's going to get a spot on the roster. But who knows
what position he's playing at the who knows, right? So these these day two picks have really
not been favorable to Bean. Well, and who was the third rounder that they traded to
the Colts who's probably off for the season the running back. Whose name I already forgot
Zach Moss. Zach Moss. I can't believe you forgot Zach Moss.
He was then forgettable. Like he was either injured or ineffective. Like he didn't do
anything. JJ, he was going to be a bowling ball of
knives was the description coming out of Bill's hand. Didn't he say coming out of the draft
that you made people make business decisions? Yeah, right. Exactly. Yeah. And the Bills
did make a business decision to trade him. He's not worthy. Right. So I mean, listen,
this is all this is all tongue in cheek. But when you have a quarterback of Josh Allen's
contract value, but also franchise value, you need to hit the reality is on some of
these draft picks on not just not just first round, but day two as well to sustain your
roster. So on one hand, we like the Vandermark and we like the Alec Anderson move because
it is a move away from what has been the MO of this team to go towards overpriced veterans
to fill holes because they can no longer afford to do it. But they are not filling those holes
with second, third and even fourth round picks. It's a lot of undrafted guys that granted
they get a they have a really good eye for an ability to develop, but they're not hitting
with some of the capital that they store up season after season in the draft as well.
So they move on from these guys. I think Wyatt Teller granted Teller was a fifth round pick
that ghost of him seems to loom over a lot of these decisions as well. So the decision
to move on from Ford was one that I think that was overdue. The decision to move on
from Basham, I think it could have been interchangeable. You could have traded Basham or you could
have traded Epineza probably. My guess is being fielded offers for both. There was just
a matter of what team gave him the better offer at this point. But regardless, they
are waiting, it feels like to a point of no return where we see what these guys have,
and they're unwilling to move on from them because they moved on from Wyatt Teller so
quickly. So we suffer through what two seasons of Boogie Basham. And he may go down as the
worst being draft pick, not not anything to do with his performance on the field, which
I would say would be slightly below average and not total abomination. You would probably
disagree, I'm sure. But it's it's because of what was still on the board in that 2020
draft after we already had read someone pocket creed it probably the best interior linemen
in the NFL with two to Super Bowl rings, walking for Patrick Moe and the Chiefs. It's
just it's yeah. So so we move on from in the Boogie Basham era. And we see kind of like
an uneasy shift in an MO from Bean on where he's going relative to getting more youth
on this team. But it's like it's coming it's coming on the book ends, it's coming in first
round picks. And again, hopefully, hopefully, Torrance and Cook change this. And then it's
coming on like undrafted free agents and six and seventh round guys that they seem to develop.
There is a lot of meat left on that bone in the middle rounds that Bean has not been able
to exploit consistently in the draft. And moving on from Basham, I think dredges up
a lot of that recent Bean draft history that has so much of Bill's mafia on edge. So listen,
there are a lot of layers we can unpack with this. There's a lot of tea leaves we can read
as a result of this. But first and foremost, what is your take JJ on this on the on this
trade of Boogie Basham going to it some familiar some familiar friends over in New York?
Well, I think the familiar friends piece is very important because I I don't know, I just
have the sense after seeing what was returning. I do believe I don't have the song, you know,
I'm not super confident, but I do believe the bills traded a seven and bash them for
a sixth, which is just asinine to me for a second round. Yeah, for a second round pick
in his third season, he still has still under rookie, two more years under rookie control
this season and next. And it's just like it just feels like something that Joe Shane
took took from, you know, from Brandon Bean, it feels like Brandon Bean lost. And I think,
you know, all the people on Twitter or I'm sorry, X, who are calling for Brandon Bean's
head. I think that they're kind of idiots, to be honest. I mean, I can, I can be critical
of Brandon Bean's misses in the second and third round. We've just talked about it, we
touched a lot of them. I can be critical of him, you know, failing on these on somebody's
second day two picks and then having to trade them away and getting peanuts back. But I
can still believe he has a knack for building a good roster. This is consistently for all
the years that he's been in Buffalo, been an improving roster year to year, and also
been a competitive roster year to year. And that's what's I think that's what's important.
This off season alone looking at the interior off the offensive line, you know, Cyrus Torrance
pick looks like it's going to hit, you know, he's very good. I've watched a lot of offensive
line snaps, flailing Buffalo Bills guards for the past three seasons. And Osiris Torrance
is not one of those. He can get beat a little bit on the inside with somebody with a little
shift here and quicker. But if he gets his hands on anyone, they're done. And we talked
about this when, you know, we first potted about their pickups, literally he touches
somebody in the rep is mostly over, even if his body's out of position, he's got the
giant, you know, meat cannons. So I think that there's a lot of meat and other on the
ends of his arms and they they just stuff it. So but what I'm saying, what I'm getting
at is I think it's fair to be critical. And I do think that they got, you know, Joe Sheen
took them for all they were worth with this bachelor trade that does not. I don't think
boogie batch him is good. I think he's a blast. He's probably a second or third stringer on
most NFL rosters, but rosterable. I think that's his thing is he's a rotational defensive
end who does a little bit of better work inside. He can make a splash play here or there, but
he'll be on seven of his 10 reps every game on average. And so that's not somebody you
want starting every game. And that I think is his NFL story based on just a couple of
seasons we've seen him. But again, yeah, it's the things that they missed on to make these
picks that are more frustrating. But I don't think it's I don't think it's enough to call
Brandon being a bad GM. I think he's still top third in the league GMs in terms of evaluating
talent, managing the roster, his contracts are some of the best in the league. It comes
to keeping them cap strong and making sure that even though they're up against the cap
ceiling every season, they have outs, they have restructure opportunities, they do a
lot of things with things with option bonuses to make sure that they don't have huge balloon
payments due to players that are past their prime. So I don't know. All over I think that
it's okay. The bashing trade frustrates me because I do think that it's not enough of
a return on that investment. But that also says all that you need to know about how this
team feels about Boogie Batchel, that they weren't even interested, they either weren't
interested in getting a better value out of that pick, or there literally was no one on
the market. And that tells you something too is they were not going to take a you know,
this offer, there were better offers. And I think a lot of teams were just sort of sitting
on it saying no, let him hit waivers or you know, we don't care to invest any sort of
asset in this player if he's available, sure, we might grab them. But if not, we're not
trading for it. So it may have even been, you know, I still think that he's a better
value than the bills got for him. But Joe Shane might have been doing Brandon being
a favor, flipping late picks. Yeah, I was going to say that.
Yeah, I was going to say if it didn't seem like the market for Baschum had really developed
nor for Epinezza at this point, which tells you as you said everything each now, I listen,
it being as a good GM, and I'm trying to mentally transport myself back to 2015 and 2016 is a
Bill's fan, and just like bathe and how far we've come. But and I will forever be grateful
to be an end McDermott for that. But they are the ones that have raised expectations.
And at some point, they need to be held accountable to the standards that they have raised. And
while the Baschum trade and the Ford trade taken as isolated incidents do not mean being
as a bad GM, I it does paint the picture of someone who was frivolous during the early
years of his elite QB is rookie contract, because he could afford to splash around some
picks knowing that he had cap space to work with in order to sign up veterans to cover
up holes that any of his draft picks potentially did not grow into. The Ford pick looks for
the frivolous, the Epinezza pick, the Baschum pick, they all look somewhat frivolous, the
Baschum pick in particular, because again, you were doubling down on a position you had
already drafted for on the first round in Greg Rousseau. It looks wasteful to some extent.
And as we know from what we have seen by the bar set in Kansas City when your QB inks that
long term contract, the margin for error in the draft decreases to almost zero, fair or
unfair. In playing with and I worry about being being able to operate successfully in
a draft environment where you do need to be successful on more than 40% of your overall
picks or whatever the success rate is, whatever the resign rate for the Buffalo Bills is in
the Brandon B. Narrow, you need a higher rate of success. And what I have not seen is that
change in philosophy and approaching the draft. Now, chicken for the egg, right? There's the
draft piece and the scouting element, but then there's the develop development element
as well. Where is it falling apart with some of these second and third round draft picks
for the Buffalo Bills? Because Gabe Davis is in a contract here. And the bills pretty
seem damned if they do damned if they don't in that regard. Because if he balls out, and
he is finally the dude that they have been almost irrationally hyping him up to be, they
can't afford to resign him. So he's going to go somewhere else for a massive payday
and they're going to have gotten one good season out of a third round draft pick that
they've tried to make their number two wide out for two years, you know what I mean? And
then they're going to be back in the draft next year, where they've basically got to
turn over most of their secondary large chunks of their defensive line because no one other
than at Oliver who is a starter assigned beyond this year. And you're looking for wide receiver
two. And Stefan Diggs is 30 years old, you know what I mean? Like, listen, this is a
little bit sky is falling on my part. But this is why the draft is so important. And
this is why as Bill's fans, I think it's fair to get frustrated with the amount of misses
that we've seen in the bean era, be it on the scouting end or on the development end,
because the the while the roster is deep, it is also exceptionally temporary with again,
a most mostly a mix of guys that we have had on the roster before, and veteran signings
that are basically trying out on one year contracts to ring chase with Allen. So will
I care? Ultimately, if the bills win a Super Bowl this year, no, probably not. I'll be
drunk into 2024 enjoying it for a year. We won't this podcast won't make any sense in
2024, because we'll never do a sober episode, you know what I mean? If the bills win a Super
Bowl. But is this team set up for long term success? I think after the past few drafts,
that is questionable. Josh Allen is our window, sure. But the limitations of what we're able
to put around him from a roster and salary cap standpoint, are only going to get worse,
which makes the draft even more imperative. And I think it's fair to have our confidence
weight confidence waiver a little bit, when it comes to the track record of being in McDermott
and these recent drafts. Yeah, I think so. I mean, yes, I will say that that is it's
reasonable because essentially you want, okay, two things, we've talked about this with draft
strategy before, you want to hit out about a third of your draft picks as reasonable
starters. It's more just statistics wise, it's more likely that those third are your
top three picks and not your last four picks, right? Like, or, you know, picks, of course,
more. But you're really your first and second rounders are the ones that you're looking
to go about 30% of all of your draft picks should be reasonable starters with some backups
and things like that. Think they've been hitting on that rate. But like you mentioned a couple
minutes ago, they've been hitting on that rate with reasonable starters coming from
late rounds and undrafted free agents. And I think that that's why they've they've had
the kind of consistency I talked about being a competitor having some of the best rosters
we've seen in 20 plus years of Bill's fan fandom. But I agree with you that that is never
going to get you over the hump. And that's the part that we're so frustrated with as
Bill's fans is we finally have a good team, but we have a good team that always falls
shorts and the key motion falls short and the key moments and that almost always comes
down to, you know, big players making big plays and big time, right? Like that, you
need superstars for that, you need the shutdown, you know, court, you need to heal them to
be a shutdown corner and get a critical interception while the chiefs are driving in the playoffs,
you need Boogie Basham or Greg Rousseau or AJ Epineza to pull a strip sack fumble, right?
Like critical time. But here we are waiting on, you know, 69 year old Von Miller to do
that to blown knees. And so I agree with you that is that there's criticism that's deserved.
I think that both things can live in the same reality, right? Like it can be true that they
have missed on some of those superstar picks and that's hurting the team. And it can also
be true that this team is the best constructed roster or most competitive we've seen in a
long long.
It's a it's a weird it's a weird it feels like contradiction to be living in because
the draft history recently as we have have said has not been there yet this roster is
sound and competitive and it's it is reasonably deep as well at certain positions, maybe not
as deep as it has been in previous years. But I will tell you, man, if there was no
salary cap, right? That's not like the bills would pay everybody $100 million. But if there
was no salary cap, and Bean could just go scout all of these like scrap pile cut guys
that he seems to like mine gold from, like he could make a living just on that. So like
yeah, it is it's frustrating to live in both worlds where we have bought you could argue
that we've had some math drafts over the past couple years. And yet we're still competitive
because the same I've eyes for talent that seem to miss on these 20 21 and 22 year old
players can find the 25 26 and 27 year old players that have some track records with
the other teams. And maybe that's the key difference. Maybe it's the data, the the the
comfortability of the data that the bills pull because when you're mining like the Diente
Hardee's and the Trent Scherf fields and stuff like that, you have a set of pro data that
you can go off of to better extrapolate and figure out how they're going to fit into your
team. The college game has become more and more volatile, and it's become more harder
and harder to gauge the success of where these players are going to be at. Trey Lance is
case in point. Two years ago, the San Francisco 49ers and alleged QB whisperer Kyle Shanahan
traded what three first round picks for this dude, and they just traded them away for a
fourth. Because their seventh round, Mr. Relevant pick Brock Purdy has outplayed him, and Sam
Darnold 28 2018 first round QB flame out has outplayed him to be the backup in San Francisco.
It is volatile to project where some of these college players will ultimately land in the
NFL. And it's fine if that's not your strong suit. And it really does feel like the bills
and their current GM regime are just way more efficient and shrewd working off pro data,
as opposed to the college data that they get to extrapolate some of these picks to.
Yeah, I think that's absolutely true is that I think the pro scouting department is much
stronger for the bills. I mean, and was even when, you know, Sean McDermott got Mike Ahide
and Jordan Poir to come over as exactly second and third string depth safeties, respectively,
he that will be easily drawn. Yeah, he brought a lot of players in at different times. Mitch
Morris like that was a super smart signing now, because it probably was as critical for
the development of Josh Allen as Brian Dabel was of having that steady center, you know,
game in game out, especially setting protections and those sorts of things with the line like,
I agree, I think that they're they're pro scouting department is top of the top, probably
a plus, but their college starting scouting department is probably C C C plus, I think
because they have, you know, I think it's weird, it's so weird for me because the the
way that they draft and the way that they pick up undrafted free agents, they have this
like amazing, it almost feels like Madden, right? It's like, this coaching staff has
seven stars in defensive backscouting. But it is a half star in offensive interior alignment
and goals, right? It's just deep and defense defense, right? Give me a break. Their weaknesses
are these two positions and they're super strength. This is this like that's what it
feels like because they have been so bad at evaluating talent, even with top picks in
some of those critical positions, but have been incredible at digging out these gems
from the bottom use of the roster heaps at the collegiate and pro level. And so I think
that, you know, Christian Benford is about to start over Kyar, a six round pick from
Villanova, no shade at Benford. He's awesome. Yeah. Against a first round super athletic
like like speed demon and Kyar Elam coming from the University of Florida. That's case
in point. Well, that's what that's what I mean is like I gave the Jordan poor and Micahide
examples. Yeah. Taryn Johnson, a fifth round player out of Weber State is probably one
of the top five nickels in the entire league that they they scooped up, right? Like the
fungus that is Dane Jackson as well. That's what I'm saying like Dane Jackson and for
him Levi Wallace undrafted out of Alabama was a starting cow is still a starting caliber
cornerback in a zone scheme in the NFL and will be for it will probably have a long tenure
career doing that because he's reliable. He's excellent at reading routes and he tends to
not be too far away to recover to break up passes, even though he's super athletically
overmatched at this level, like they just have this knack for finding really smart football
players in the defense of backsealed, who can overcome physical, you know, limitations
that keep them from other teams radars and play such technique sound football that they
they get by like and it's the scheme probably it's the coaching it's the way they coach
them up. Meanwhile, in the trenches, it's mostly a dumpster fire and hopefully this
year it's not right like and I say that knowing that the Buffalo Bills have a top five scoring
offense, knowing the Buffalo Bills have a top five defense every year and year out.
But that's their biggest weakness and has been since you know, we've been basically doing
this pod.
Yeah, and you it's interesting that you bring up the statistics right top three defense
top three offense last season, but it doesn't always pass the eye test and I get the eye
test doesn't matter. It matters as the result of the game. But there were just so many stretches
last year where it just looked really hard for the Bills. And it's in those moments where
you really wish you had that like blue chip number two outside wide receiver opposite
of digs that could break a game. And I think that that's the key separator like I'm not
saying that every team that beats the Bills like hits on their number ones and hits on
their number twos and they're stacked with some of this talent. But what they have done
I would argue that the Bills have not done is find some of those first and second round
separators that in key moments because games are games against good teams in the playoffs
are about moments, right? It's not about the aggregate, the aggregate is the 17 games
you played before in the regular season. The playoffs are a new season and it is moment
to moment the aggregate no longer matters. And in those moments, other teams just seem
to have guys that can rise to the occasion. And the Bills don't have some of those individual
separators outside of digs and Allen on their roster. And that's where you feel the loss
of it, right? So like a lot of this talent development that they're doing at the pro
scrapheap level and the later rounds of the draft, like that's floor razors, where the
Bills have failed, I think, to really develop any meaningful talent is on the ceiling razors
at this point. Like we still don't have that. And I think that's a good transition to go
into the 53 man analysis here, because I think there's a lot of floor razors and I think
some really inspired moves on this 53 man. But this is largely the same roster as last
year with the exception of a couple of free agent additions and Dalton can Cade. So the
question that we have to ask ourselves is we know the floor is going to be high. We
know the floor on this team is probably eight or nine wins, which is a wonderful rate for
Bills fans that remember anything past 2014. That's amazing. But is the ceiling 13 games
on this roster? I don't think so. I think the ceiling is probably 11. And that makes
the AFC an AFC East repeat, probably very difficult, right? And that's, that's just
what we're talking about now. We're not trying to be spoiled brats about it. This is the
standard that we have now been taught to expect. And it's fair to analyze it from the standard
that is coming out from one bills drive.
Yeah, absolutely. And I think that you're right. I think the that is like one of the
best ways that I've heard somebody summarize the problems with this good competitive roster
is that the ceiling razor, right? Like, and that's kind of the point, the note I was trying
to hit on when I mentioned that like, the bills have, you know, had solid competitive
players, but they haven't had somebody who's like superstar outside of Josh Allen, Stefan
Diggs, you know, and maybe the end of the list, right? Like, Matt Milano has occasional
superstar moments, Tradevis White before his injury did, Mike Haydn, Jordan Boyer probably
count there, but they're late enough in their career, I would not count them in that same
stratosphere now, right? Like, if we don't see clean seasons from them, and either of
them misses some substantial time due to injury, I think it is fair to say that they are now
average starters, right? Like, they could do amazing things in small bursts, but it's
not consistent like it used to be. So I agree, I think that's, that's probably the best way
to describe the ceiling razors. And that's sad, because I think that they they need that
we want that. That's the only thing that we want out of life. Like you said, we do a whole
year of drunken pods. If they went a Super Bowl, probably.
Seriously, I don't know if that party would ever end. But I will have to equip my job.
I will say there are a few players on this 53 and we can go through it kind of position
by position. That get me really excited for the season in terms of they might still be
floor razors, but I think their floor is much higher than the predecessors that they've
replaced on this roster. A couple, you know, I think James Cook has the potential to be
one of the ceiling razors. He can do some very special things. One can only hope. Yeah.
And in the preseason, especially when he was running between the tackles, I was a little
bit underwhelmed. I was like, Oh, you know, like did not have that reliable vision and
contact balance that we remember, you know, seeing all along with motor single Terry.
But but I think that, you know, an exciting next step for James Cook and then Latavius
Murray and Damian Harris, I think have a lot to offer. And I think that is a massive,
massive upgrade from the Zach Moss and Devin single Terry backfields of the past few seasons.
So those those guys are bowling balls with us. Yes, yes, those guys are exactly. They
were like, you know what, we missed on Zach Moss. Let's let's just get two free agents
that are both eight times better than him and will be 16 times better. Do you like math?
So I do, I do like math. And I think it gives something that builds mafia has been asking
for for a long time, which is the opportunity to not rely on Josh Allen's legs and shore
yardage and goal line situations to keep him. And I know we've talked about this before
quarterbacks don't get injured running the football. They get injured in the pocket,
just like he has in his in his career. But I think that the less hits the better always.
So that's that's one ceiling razor. And then I'll talk about one other well, I guess two
other ceiling razors on the offensive side of the ball. And that is Dalton concave. And
the pressure that we are putting on this dude to pause is unbelievable. I think he deserves
it. We'll get back to Dalton in my predictions. But I think that he deserves that pressure
because of what we've seen through training camp, what all of the, you know, Buffalo beat
media people have said about his consistency in practice, his understanding and mastery
of the offense, you know, pretty quickly for a rookie. He's never going to be, you know,
the he's never going to be an Osiris Torrance meet cannon blocker, but he's been reasonable.
He's been reasonable. But his skill at the catch point, his ability to kind of run incredible
routes and feel soft spots in the defense, I'm very, very excited. And so he's a ceiling
razor. And then the last one I'll talk about on offense is the sort of like the jumble
of Connor McGovern, Osiris Torrance, David Edwards, Ryan Van Damar, Gallagher, Anderson,
there's a lot of really good things in those four players who are very, who are very much
younger than anybody that Bean has brought in the last few years to try to stabilize
this line. And I really think, you know, I'm so worried about Spencer Brown. I think he
might be terrible.
He I mean, he looks terrible, even in the Chicago guy, he looked he looks bad. So I'm
really worried about right tackle, but there's a lot you you can get by having one bad tackle.
If you have two really good guards, an excellent son or in a left tackle, right, like you can
literally shift protection and keep Dawson Knox in on Ryan are not Spencer Brown side
every play. And who knows, maybe Ryan Bates, you know, with Osiris Torrance taking his
job at right guard, maybe Ryan Bates is our new right tackle. It goes poorly. I also saw
that the Buffalo Bills were hosting Germain at FETI. Oh, yeah, yeah. And he he's a tackle
that I think he's a little bit, I'd say he's a little bit better than Brandon Shell in terms
of his athleticism. And so that might be that may be a massive upgrade of if they're able
to sign him to a kind of a reasonable veteran minimum deal. And there's also the chance,
you know, out there on the waiver wire, young talent or a veteran somewhere. So I I'm not
throwing the panic button on the offensive line, but right tackle is a problem. I think
that they really did a great job of shoring up the interior, though, which was way more
of a problem for Josh Allen last year.
Yeah, I agree. Allen seems to manage pressure from the edge well. And we've talked about
this for a couple of years now. If you want to get to some of these more mobile QBs, some
of these guys that like to get out around the edge and run it, you got to put pressure
up the middle the Kyler Murray is the Lamar Jackson's the Josh Allen's anyone that likes
to get out and run when need be, they usually like to take up in those big gaps up the middle,
you can close out those gaps, you really do take away a lot of their leverage in the improvise
improvisational run game. So yeah, I for me, I paid particular attention here to a couple
of areas running back was one of them. And I love the way this room has shaken out. Wide
receiver as well. Now Justin shorter is likely to go on IR. He's dealing with a hamstring
issue. He makes the 53 man now, but will likely go on IR, which means that the bills can then
bring someone back off the waiver wire. And that's likely going to be camp favorite Andy
Isabella at this point, which will be amazing for a lot of bills mafia that have rooted
for Isabella all through camp to get his shot. I paid particular attention to JJ to what
the bills were going to do in the backup QB market on offense, only because last year,
last year was the first year really in our, our memory of Josh Allen being the dominant
player that has become where he looked human got her in weeknight against the Jax, his
UCL strain. We've talked about it ad nauseam. But I think for any team that loses their
number one QB, the season is kind of hopeless. But the backup QB matters because you really
want to have a guy in there who if they need to for three or four weeks can go out there
and can basically pitch 500 ball, you know what I mean? Go two and two, go two and one,
keep it close, keep the team in line until your QB one can get back. And Kyle Allen
had not played particularly well in the preseason to the point where a lot of Buffalo writers
like Joe Biscali, for example, who I respect and like from the athletic were positing that
we were going to go out and get Kate bring case, Keenum back into the fold. And my take
in the bills is I think a lot of people know it. A lot of fans know we were in on trade
Lance as well. And that trade market for him too. Thank God we didn't go up give up anything
more than a fourth for him. I mean, total project, not not anyone that's going to immediately
help this team. But case Keenum, I was like, really, this, this is where we're going to
go. Like I was hoping the bills would hang on to Kyle Allen, because I think his athletic
profile while no one is the alien that Josh Allen is, I thought his athletic profile fit
more of the scheme that Dorsey wanted to call than Keenum who at this point is stages basically
gonna take a four step drop and throw it. So there's an element of predictability to
a case Keenum in a known quantity level to case Keenum. I was like, why would we invest
resources in trading for that guy out of Houston? I think he's still their third string QB there.
So so I was happy to see Alan stay and then same with you. I liked overall. And I'm hedging
this by saying, I believe and we'll take it to my grave that the bills needed to bring
in someone that was legitimately going to challenge Spencer Brown, because I think they
now are feeling the pressure to find a veteran off the waiver wire to bring in and challenge
Spencer Brown. And I think they should have done it earlier. All that nonsense aside,
I liked that they walked away from a Quessin Berry. I like the fact that they walked away
from Ike Buck, Ike butger. And I like the fact that they're giving some of these. In
the case of Alec Anderson, I believe he was an undrafted free agent who they kept on the
practice squad last year have developed another elevated to the 53 man roster. I like the
inflection of youth. I like the fact that he's got position versatility. I've seen him in
some mock depth charts is actually the primary backup to Mitch Morse because he can play
a little bit of center and Ryan Rick Bates being the primary backup to Spencer Brown.
So taking a shot and hitting on some of these younger guys as we have talked about is a
floor razor. And it allows a little bit more flexibility and a little bit more, more, I
think depth variability as well, depending on who gets hurt and when because it's a
long season. Inevitably someone's going to get hurt. I think the ability for the bills
to plug and play with a little bit more versatility here is something that I'm really happy to
see with Vandermark and Anderson as well. Other than that, there are really no surprises
on the offensive offensive 53 man for me. I'm just glad the bills finally decided to walk
away from some of their free agent mistakes of the past. Switching over to the defensive
side of the ball JJ. Anything here surprise you to any great extent?
Not, I mean, I guess I we already talked about the bashing trick that sort of surprised me
because seemingly he was having a decent camp and it usually would mean that the you know,
Brandon B and John Mcdair were going to let it ride with the draft of theirs, especially
a high draft pick. But they sent him away. So that was kind of a surprising thing. And
especially they didn't get much for him, which is also surprising. I mean, like disappointing,
he had a he had a good camp to he was he was looking pretty good looking like maybe he
was ready to be a serviceable serviceable rotational guy. But yeah, well, and I don't
think he's a Wyatt Teller. I think he's more a Zach Moss. But I worry I worry a little
bit because the cupboards a little bit bare on the edge in New York. And so he might be
the best defensive lineman they have. And that means that the occasional splash pay might
their splash play might come his way. And then everybody in Bill's office is going to blow
their, you know, minds because they think that bachelor's this undiscovered gem.
I just want to know if Shane has like blackmail on some of these GMs, because he traded for
Isaiah Simmons, I believe for a seventh round pick. Yeah, that was a that's a former first
round top 10. I think he went number eight overall that year to Arizona for a seventh
round pick. And he gets Boogie Basham, who like we said, was having a good camp for a
slight increase in draft position, not even actually giving anything away or so right.
Yeah. Right. I mean, basically swap of late round picks like, like, is Shane trailing
all these guys? Like, did him and Dan Snyder get together and like, does he have Dan Snyder's
PI? Is that what it is? Right? And he's got all this alleged dirt on I just I can't the
the deals that he's pulling are insane. I mean, good for Shane. Sorry, sorry for the
illusion of the Snyder. Too soon. It's okay. Yeah, no, that guy's a that guy's a tool.
That's horrible. Yeah. How he's gone. Yeah. Thank God that such a terrible person had had
the comeuppance of only selling his team for like the $200 billion profit. The I asked
you like that's the shittiest thing that doesn't matter. Right. Doesn't matter. Nothing matters.
He entered a billionaire, he'll leave even more of a billionaire for a extra billionaire
for it for incompetently, unethically and illegally, to some extent, running his team
into the ground, right? He'll leave with even more money. But good for Josh Harris, who
has the easiest job in the NFL this year is the new owner of the commanders. He just has
to not be Dan Snyder and people like him for the rest of his time in the league, no matter
how long he owns the team, all he has to do is not be a philander and crook like right.
And he'll be like, well respected person. So I'm getting anyways, get back to the roster.
Back to our wheelhouse. The Buffalo Bells. Exactly. Yeah. So I mean, no real big surprises.
I think that, you know, everything sort of shook out the way you expected it to be. I
think everyone expected Mike, a high Jordan Boyer Taylor wrapped in our Hamlin. Cam Lewis
was kind of a, you know, maybe, maybe in maybe out, but they've really liked him and he can
pinch hit and the nickel that's at times. And then, you know, middle linebacker, I was
hoping that, you know, they would somehow be like, Oh, by the way, this person made our
roster. This person you'd never heard of was capable starting middle linebacker, which
we still don't have one of. But I wondered about Christian Kirksey, who has been released
by the Texans, I think, and is a friend of Josh Allen's. So that that could be a player.
He, but I am started the two seasons and last year was the Tapa leader for the Texans. So
it could be a capable middle linebacker. But, um, but yeah, I mean, nothing too surprising.
And in terms of like my projection for the season, the things that excite me about the
roster is I do think that Greg Russo looks a lot better. But I think he still requires
von Miller across from him in order to like really make a, uh, and so we'll see how that
goes. Leonard Floyd is definitely better than AJ Epinezzo, but still not to von Miller,
of course, level. So wonder how that goes. Kingsley Jonathan making the 53 was kind of
surprising to me. Um, but he he's by all accounts, has had a good camp. And then, you know, the
another player that I think is going to raise the floor, but not maybe necessarily the ceiling
is Pooner Ford and at DT. I've really liked that signing, you know, picking him up after
Seattle, let him go. Um, he's a, he is a literal bowling ball, not with knives, but
just a bowling ball in general. Human version of a bowling ball. Yes. And that's, that's
I think that's an addition. So not too much. How about you?
No, yeah, I, um, you know, the only place in my preseason projection where I, I turned
out to be wrong was at the defensive tackle was a defensive tackle because I did not have
Jordan Phillips making the squad. And then it was edge. I didn't have Shaq Lawson on
the squad. I had Boogie Basham and Kingsley Jonathan actually. Um, but I didn't have Shaq
Lawson making the squad. So, but the bills value those two guys, they value their veteran
leadership, they value the leadership that they bring to the clubhouse and all that kind
of stuff. And they've been productive players in this scheme, very productive players for
the bills. So, so I think especially, I think Lawson is probably depending on how productivity
across the season shakes out. Think Lawson is probably first man out when Van Heller
comes off the pup list. But for the, for the time being, I've got no, no real issues with
it. And like we said, this is, this is an old defense. And I think it's worth repeating
at this particular point. For a lot of these guys, it's going to be their, their last dance
with this team. Um, you wonder how much we have said, poyer and hide have left in the
tank. Trey White getting up there, Dane Jackson going to be closer to 30 than he is to 25
at this point. Um, it, Dequan Jones is going to be 33, 34 in season. Van Miller, we've
talked about, like it Jordan Phillips, Shaq Lawson, both aging veterans. And this is also
to a large extent, unlike the offense, offensive line in the tight end room and the, in the
wide receiver room, which underperformed last year. And as a result, got big makeovers
via the draft and via free agency. This is basically the same defense that got absolutely
shelled by Cincinnati at the end of the season. It's almost man for man, the same defense.
Yeah, absolutely. And then that got concerns about that. Yeah.
That worries me. I think that they, they, the bills may, they, the bills being Sean McDermott
may have the belief that scheme is going to fix that, right? Like being more aggressive,
taking shots, you know, with Blitzes at different times, the old sugar of the A gap that I loved
when Sean McDermott first started coaching here that Leslie Frazier did not seem to
like as much. Um, stuff like that, I think we're going to see, especially if they, they
don't have a Tremade Edmonds leave him in the middle of the field as a chess piece player.
Yeah. And so they may need to be sending heat with their linebackers and have more exotic
linebacker schemes. And, uh, just to get production out of that position. And so I think that
that's the thought is, you know, we had a, again, like you said, top three finish in
terms of overall defense, terrible showing in the playoffs, but how much of that was
a motion this team went through the real ringer last year and sort of just ran out of gas,
it seems. Um, so we'll see, we'll see how things go. And but you're right. I mean, it's
an old defense. It's an old defense that has underperformed multiple years in big moments.
And that will be the ultimate test for Sean McDermott is if he's going to be the play
caller, uh, then, you know, show us what you got. Can you make this unit perform big in
big moments?
That's the variable because all of these pieces outside of admins are basically the same this
year. So that's the variable. It was his scheme and or was scheme. The issue is a talent.
Is it a mix of both this year? We're going to isolate that variable and we're going to
find out what it is. And then next year we've got to turn it all over because not a lot
of these guys will be coming back on veteran contracts next year. So, well, so interesting
overall.
And I'll say, I mean, this was a conversation for like February, March, but, um, uh, if
they can do the same kind of makeover on the defensive line, line, back for safeties that
they did this next off season and 24 that they did to the offensive line, wide receivers
and tight end, like you mentioned, I think that they can kind of keep rolling because
those units look way different and much better.
You know what they need to do in order to make that happen. Hit on some first, second
and third round draft.
Every second and third. Seriously, that's what they need to do. And being to his credit
got a boatload of draft capital on this year's draft at the end of last year's draft. Um,
I think we're walking in with like 10 picks, 10 or a lot. Yeah. In a draft that is going
to be demonstrably deeper than the draft class we just saw come up. So I said, I said this
around the draft draft time. They know their weaknesses in the second and third round. Just
use late round extra picks and their second and third rounders and trade to get seven
picks between rounds four and six.
Seriously, they'll hit on all of them. I mean, they will. They will at 100% rate, 100% success
rate. Again and again, they can get meaningful and upper echelon starters in the fourth and
fifth round. Amazing. Just do that.
Amazing. All right. I want to talk a little bit about, uh, let's see. Do we want to talk
about the rest of the AFC East and China? Here's what I'm thinking real quick. All
right. Because we've already been talking for close to an hour and we want to get to
some prediction sure to go wrong because we both hate predictions, but we do a podcast
so we need to make them right. We love making them. We hate that they exist. We love making
them. We do. Exactly. Exactly. We hate them, but we love them. Right. Um, so here's what
I want to pitch to you. All right. Let's do rankings one through four of where we think
each of these teams will finish in terms of overall defense, overall offense. Okay. Then
we can predict who we think is going to win the division and then that'll launch us into
the rest of our prediction. Sure to go wrong for this season. How do you feel about that?
Yeah, I like it. Yeah.
All right. So all right, let's start with defensive unit units first. Now on paper,
all four of these teams look pretty loaded. Okay. I'm going to give you in ascending order
for being the worst one being the best. I'm going to go four through one and tell you
where I think these defensive units in the division are going to sit. I've got the bills
at number four. Oh, and it's solely because of the age factor. Okay. I've got the dolphins
at number three because I think they're talented, but I think it's going to take them a few
games to pick up on Vic Fangio's scheme. And if you look at the statistics and the splits
from back when it was a 16 game sample, first eight games versus last eight games for the
first year of a team and Fangio system, the first eight are always a rocky start and they
become really proficient in the latter half of the season. I think that given the difficult
level of difficulty of some of Miami schedule, I think by the time things shake out, this
is still probably going to be a top 10 unit overall, but I would put them at third most
proficient here in the division. Number two, I'm going to go with the New England Patriots.
I think they've got a mighty pass rush. I think that secondary is always well coached
and with Christian Gonzalez, they have a ceiling razor that they can output on the outside
next to the brothers not related Jones that they're going to be rolling out there as well
on the secondary. I think what they've done at the safety position as well with Duggar
who we laud, right? And then the drafting of Keon White and Tupé, Marte Tupé.
Marte Tupé, yeah, the linebacker. They just have a bunch of tweeners where it's going
to be the Amoeba defense of all time. And other than Matt Judon and Christian Baramore,
you're really not going to know where the pressure is coming from. You're not going
to know who's going to be dropping, who's going to be rushing. I think they're going
to, I don't know that they make the playoffs and we'll talk about this when we get to offense
and overall, but I think the games they win are going to be like 17-14. This is a team
that's probably going to win pretty ugly this year, right?
For sure. And then number one, I've got the Jets defense, though I think that is a team
with considerable flaws. I think Sauce Gardner, while good, is tremendously overrated. And
if any referee worth their salt decides to call a pass interference on Sauce, it'll
be the first time. That dude just, I see all these highlight videos of how great of a shutdown
corner Sauce Gardner is and all I see him as grabbing guys' jerseys and pants, that's
all I see, right? I'm not saying the dude doesn't have talent, but I'm saying for the
love of God, like if I could grab guys like that, I could be a shutdown corner too, right?
Bull. But listen, man. Listen. All right, listen. I mean, and if I lost 180 pounds,
and if I could run a 4-3, all right, and if I was four inches tall, all right.
A couple of variables. It's fun. It's fun. There's other variables, right? And if I
just worked on my hand strength, right? There's a lot of things. Same. We all have flaws.
We all have things to work on. We all have flaws. We all have flaws. You too could be
an elite athlete if you dropped 200. Oh, yeah, I could. Absolutely. Yeah. But anyway, I would
only be 80 pounds at that point if I lost 200 pounds. That's late. Yeah, it'd be a third
grader. Anyway, but the secondary is good. I'm worried about that defense up the middle
though. And when you, I think if there is a reason they won't finish number one, it's
going to be because teams are going to exploit them up the middle. Tuo likes to play the
middle of the field. He really like exclusively likes to play the middle of the field. We
know the bills are trying to get the middle of the field back as well. New England has
a bunch of guys that can run fast on the outside, but no one that can really catch a pass on
the outside. So is a byproduct of having a Seckie and Hunter Henry probably is their
primary weapons and juju Smith Schuster, who is a big middle of the field target eater,
they're going to go after the middle of the field too. I think the Jets defensive line
depth is absolutely insane. I think that group can go seven or eight deep and not lose any
efficacy as a result of that. They've got studs on the defensive line. I think that's
going to be the great equalizer. All of these defenses have weaknesses, but I think the
Jets to me rise to the top because of the depth on the outside with sauce and reader.
And despite the weaknesses up the middle, I think that defensive line is going to cover
is going to be the deodorant on a lot of a lot of that. Oh yeah. Yeah. So what do you
think JJ? So I would agree with your ratings with a couple of exceptions. I would actually
bring the bills up and put the Patriots down a little bit. I think I think it's okay. If
I go in a descending order, is that a sending order? First, I think is Jets second bills,
third Patriots and fourth dolphins. Think those are head of the Patriots. And I think
it's probably and here's the reason this is going to be weird. This is going to sound
like I don't know what I'm talking about, but that's okay. That's the whole podcast.
We don't know what we're talking about. That is the purpose of the. Yeah, that's right.
So think that the Patriots in efficiency on offense hurts their defense. I think that
their offensive woes are going to put their defense in some really tough spots that even
the talent and I agree with you on a lot of that. I think the Patriots are going to play
the first ever defense that we've seen in the NFL with seven safeties on the field at
one time, but we'll, you know, seven safety slash linebackers who are positionless players
like that might happen slash water boys like they just, yeah, who knows, right? They're
going to have the first human cyborg, you know, safety play on the field. But they,
so, so, but that, that being said, I think that because they don't have, because they're
an unbalanced team, I think they're going to struggle a little bit and that's going
to put their defense in tough spots. So that's why I'd flip the bills up a little bit higher.
I agree with you. I think the dolphins, everyone's like looking at the situation and like, oh,
thick, Fangio is going to fix everything that and I think he can fix a lot of things. He's
an excellent DC, but it takes time and it takes time when he doesn't have the thing
I think that the problem with the dolphins defense has been in the past is that when
I think about that defense, I cannot identify any player that's like a Micahide, a Jordan
poyer for the bills, you know, terminated bins like somebody who like really knows the
whole thing in and out and gets everyone in the right position because the games we've
seen the dolphins in the captain. Yeah, who's the one running the ship that's not, you know,
it's on the field. The green dot. Yeah, who's the green dot? And I'm sure they have someone
who's going to call plays, but is that person capable of fixing covering up when players
are not performing or executing? Because the things we've seen is when the dolphins defense
starts to get beaten, they're not playing it, Ed, or they're not beating up on the other
team that they fall apart in terms of their unit, right? Like a lot of those players are
the same. There's finger pointing, they like, clearly look like they are not disciplined
and maybe Fangio can fix some of that. But I also think in a new scheme that those personalities
might erupt that might be a little bit more, more of a problem.
Yeah, I agree. Neither of us are really high on the doll as high as national media is on
dolphins defense. We could very well be wrong. Yeah. Fangio is a great coordinator, but also
it's a complex scheme. And it's listen, it's a scheme that just got roasted by Patrick
Mahomes in the Super Bowl. Yes. So that was the bills have seen the Fangio defense or
a version of it in practice for the last four years with Leslie Frazier, and they've seen
it every time they play an opposing defense with the too high coverage. I mean, too high
zone that that's what Fangio is going to roll out. I get there's going to be some wrinkles
and all that other kind of stuff. I'm not trying to undersell the complexity of this
but it takes a while to catch on. And I think teams have been spending the last two and
a half seasons figuring out how to adapt to this particular brand of defense. And I think
we're going to see some adjustments baked in to counteract this defense.
Yeah, so I'd flip it around. I'd actually bring the bills up and beat.
Why the bills so high? So I'm just curious, right?
So I think that the yeah, I have an answer. Go ahead. I think that we both are worried
about the middle linebacker position, but I actually think they're going to play more
cover three and bring one of their safeties down and have their corners play, especially
if it's Benford or Dane Jackson and Trey, they're going to have corners play deep third
and cover the sidelines and have a single high safety and then bring a safety down in
the box to help with that middle linebacker weakness. And I do think that that is a better
defense against the dolphins. I'll see twice. That's that is a better defense against the
jets with our Rogers. It's I don't know how much of a better defense it is against the
Patriots. I think the Patriots will have an offensive scheme that could attack that a little
better than the other. They're going to run the ball. Yeah, exactly. They have a better
defensive attack. And so the bills defensive line will really have to step up. But the
past first offense of the jets and dolphins could see could struggle a little bit more
with the three, you know, three high shell. So that I mean, that's that's what I'm thinking
about the bills defense is that I think it's in the same way that NGOs defense has disadvantages
by the complexity and difficulty early on, the bills defense has advantages by the lack
of understanding and knowledge of current OCs playing against the Sean McDermott call
play, right? Like they've seen they know how to beat or they don't because they didn't
right like the bills won 13 games last year. Like they they did not overcome Leslie Frazier's
defensive calls. And so that's still there. But I there are other wrinkles and things
like that that I think Sean McDermott will bring to the fold. And like we said, this
is the same defense, they know the defense that he and Leslie Frazier built, whatever
wrinkles they have, that's the twist. And that's probably they're probably quicker to get
to there than Fangio's D. Yeah, that's fair enough. I worry about a couple of things.
I worry about the relative age and key positions. And I mean, listen, Von Miller missed five
games last year and still ended the season tied for team lead in sacks with eight. So
unless Rousseau, which by all accounts, scouts around the league, if you're if you're reading
a lot of national headlines, they think Rousseau is ready to take the next step and ready to
hit double jaded sacks this year. But if Rousseau doesn't, and they don't get a lot out of Floyd,
this is all hinging the pass rush efficacy is all hinging on 34 year old Von Miller
coming back from ACL and week six. Yeah. Right. So I have real questions about this pass rush.
Now here's the good news. And this is a great transition, I think to talk about the offensive
side of the ball. None of the teams the bills will be playing in division have a good offensive
line. Yeah, I know. Like no, like we said it last year, and I think it still holds true.
I don't know for offensive, for offensive units in the same division, they're rolling out
worse offensive lines than these four teams are. I mean, so let's get to our rankings
because we're going to shred all of these offensive lines, I'm pretty sure. So I went
first with D. Do you want to go first with offense? Sure. Yeah. So in terms of often,
of offensive efficacy, I think it's going to roll out from last from last place in the
division to first. The Patriots have already mentioned bottom bottom. I mean, the fact
that they cut Bailey Zappie was probably cutting their best quarterback. Mac Jones is a fool.
They emptied their QB room for Mac Jones. Crazy. Mac, you're you're it. You're our milk toast
loser. So Mac Jones and the Patriots last. And then I actually think it's going to be
the dolphins because I know, well, because I think that they they did not invest in offensive
line depth or quality. And to is literally made of paper mache. It's and that's not
to like say he's not a strong capable individual. It's to say he had two concussions and probably
three concussions over the course of the season. And they get more frequent and more terrible
the more you have them. So I'm really worried about his overall health forever. Right. And
so I think that definitely, you know, I can see him missing three or four or five games
half a season. And that could be a real problem for the dolphins because I don't think they
have the capable backups to run that offense. And so I think to end the dolphins and third
and then the jets in second place and overall offensive efficacy and performance. And again,
like air Rogers new to the new to the team, they have some some superstar talent. But
I think that their offense looked much different and much weaker. And it wasn't just that they
didn't have a capable passer once Breeze Hall was out of the fold, and he's coming back from
a severe knee injury. And so his ability to kind of take off. We saw it with Trey White.
I mean, he didn't come back till full year after his injury and didn't look this, you
know, the same. Now, thankfully is looking more that more the part like old Trey. But
those positions that require like very sharp cuts and thirst, the knee injury isn't is not
great. Coming back from that from the ACL. So we'll see. I think that there's also some
growing pains that the jets are going to see with with Aaron Rogers and getting used to
the offense. But you know, I think there's going to be second best in the league. And
then first, the Buffalo Bills. I think that they have the capacity to be the best offense
again,
rookie of the year Dalton concave. I know you're going. Yeah, I mean, we'll get the
I mentioned I've teased twice now that we'll get there with my prediction. So I got a prediction
about the nice very cool. All right. So here's my list. I'll start with number one because
the same as your number one, I do think the bills will have the best offense in the division.
I don't think it's going to be easy. But I think it's going to look a lot easier than
it did last year. That's no shade against the defenses that are going to be going up
against in the division. And it's a brutal schedule for them to be playing as well this
season. If they don't get out get out to a hot start, things could get dicey real quick.
But I love what they did with the wide receiver room. They're protecting for the most part
Josh Allen and all the right places as far as the interior of the offensive line. This
all hinges on Dawkins going back to like average play as opposed to what he was at last year.
And I assume that Ryan Bates will be starting for Spencer Brown by week two after they see
how atrocious he is defending defending against the New York Jets past rush. But I think overall
the bills have the pieces in place with the added wrinkle of Dalton Kincaid and the hopeful
emergence of James Cook to bring some balance. But also I think a little bit of counter punch
ability in the check down game and in the run game to that team as well. And hopefully
some big playability to right. All of those things I think the bills are going to be sitting
at number one. Number two, the New England Patriots.
Whoa, that is so spicy. What are you doing? Make it make sense.
So you've already kind of like you. So you've already kind of talked about it. Like all
of these defenses are going to be gaming to stop the pass. And the way that Belichick
has built this offense with Henry Giseke in juju Smith's Schuster. Essentially, Giseke
is a wide receiver Smith Schuster more like a tight end. He's got these variables and
this ability to go multiple and under the in this Callahan offense on a variety of different
occasions. And when you look at the formations that they have rolled out in the preseason,
not the actual personnel in the formations, but the formations themselves, they they are
playing a lot more three wide receiver sets, which is right in Mac Jones comfort zone.
We know that that team is going to be able to run the ball as well. Do I think they're
going to hang 30 on everybody a game? No, I don't think that is going to be the case.
But I think this offense is going to be surprising at its level of success and efficiency. And
I think I think they're I think they're going to do better than a lot of people think. Number
three. No, hang on. Can I just say one thing about the Baydreads offense? They they are
bringing they put six six offensive tackles on their 53 man roster, six of the spots on
their 53 man roster are just for the tackle position on offense. So like I that offensive
line is bad. It's bad. But what I'm saying, though, is like, clearly, I'm agreeing with
you. I think I'm not agreeing with you. I think they'll be good. I think it'll be terrible.
I'm agreeing with you that they're going to try to run the ball quite a lot. And they're
going to face a lot. They're going to face cover three from the bills. They're going
to face too high shell, which is from Miami, which is a scheme that is begging to be run
against. And I don't give a shit what people say about sauce Gardner. He's still has a
lot of room to grow and run defense. Same thing with DJ reader. These are teams vulnerable
to a Belichick scheme. I'm just saying. But that's fine. But what what what does it matter
when you only have four possessions because you take nine minutes off the clock every
time you have the ball and you lose 21 to 14? Listen, I'm willing to make the suburban
bet with you. I'm willing to make the suburban bet. Okay, we can do it. We can do it by DVO
way if you want to. Yeah, because that seems to be a pretty objective measure, right?
Like let's I'm going to type that in my notes. There's a bourbon. So McCorkles for season.
This was a this was a top nine unit and offensive DVO way, right? So I'm just saying, I think
I like I think I think Callahan's a floor raiser. I think unlike last season, there
is some intentionality to the way this offense has been built. And I think Callahan being
able to write the map Patricia ship, I don't think we understand or ever will how bad the
map Patricia experiment was. Yeah, and I do. I mean, it was terrible. And I don't think
I I I don't think the Patriots will have a hard time scaling that low bar. But I also
think people will be shocked at the at how the quality of coaching can also raise the
ceiling on that particular unit. If that unit is just average, if they finish top 12 or
top 15 DVO way, that that's going to be a team that's going to be a team that's probably
contending for the playoffs with that defense. Okay. I know I mean, this is a fun bourbon
bourbon. The way I wrote it is that you you're writing that in the AFC East alone, the Patriots
are going to be number two overall in offensive BBO way.
So so relative in the division, right? So if like, yeah, so if like the bills are third
in the leg, right? But the Patriots are 15th. Yeah, but everybody is below them. They're
still second. Exactly. That's exactly the way I understand it as well. I'm betting that
the Patriots are going to be fourth in the AFC East relative to everybody. And both of
either of those conditions hit the person who bet them gets the bourbon. But if they're
third in the AFC or first, we don't it's a push. Exactly. If they're first, what wins
who wins with the hell of a no one wins. It's hell on earth if they're first. Okay. Third,
I've got the Miami Dolphins. The offensive line is absolutely atrocious. And Miami approached
the soft season, I think with a certain level of arrogance that we are not acknowledging.
In season, it wasn't just the defensive side of the ball that didn't make any adjustments
in the face of injury. It was the offensive side of the ball as well. And we all love
McDaniel. We think he's like the coolest freaking dude to put on a headset as a head coach in
a very long time in the NFL. Dude is just personality wise, a breath of fresh air. But
he was a first year play caller. And we don't know what his what his baseline for adjustment
is going to be. We didn't see any meaningful adjustments in season. And everything about
these roster moves from the lack of investment in the offensive line. I think I saw in their
53 man they're carrying five running backs at this point. Like and they might be in for
Jonathan Taylor as well. Yeah. Like this is a team who's like, we're just going to be
faster than you. And I think the counter to that we've already seen from the Chargers
and the 49ers is we're going to be more physical and stronger than you. And until I see McDaniel
able to do that and that offensive line be able to keep to up right for 17 games in a
season. I have questions about the Miami offense and the depth that wide receiver is problematic
to Jalen Waddle is a dude who has been hurt before and doesn't deal with press man well.
They've got Tyree kill, but then it's Christian Berrios is their number three. Braxton.
Braxton. Sorry. Yeah. What I said Christian. Yeah. Braxton. So this is a team that has
depth issues in the wide receiver room, injury issues in the QB room, talent issues on the
offensive line. And the only meaningful thing they did in the offseason was they got faster
in the running back room. Like I well, and they have some point you just cannot run everybody.
They have five running backs and a full back. So the running back room is six individuals.
Like what are they going to do? Like what are they going to do with all that? You know
what I mean? And then and then what you know, I think that this brings into question like
why we talked about them being, you know, possibly bottom of the barrel and defense is
that with three, three quarterbacks on their 53 man roster, five running backs and a full
back there, like they're stealing from somewhere and that somewhere as their defense. And yeah,
I think it's they only have two tight ends and their Durham smith and Julian Hill, whoever
that is. So I mean, and again, that was a notable, notable flaw with this team last
year and they shrug their shoulders. I did nothing, right? Did nothing to address it.
So unless they're going to run five running backs out there that can catch the football
on a regular basis in the passing game. I don't know. I think we're I think the good
will McDaniels built up is earned. But if you put Bella check on this team as the head
coach, and it was Bella check after a season where their QB didn't get three where their
QB got three concussions and they didn't improve the offensive line and they didn't improve
the wide receiver depth after Tyree kill had those hamstring issues at the end of the season,
you would call him arrogant to I think McDaniel is playing on some well earned good will.
But I think it was any other coach that GM that approached their offensive unit with
that type of complacency. I think we'd have stronger questions, you know, so yeah.
And in no time at all, you know, Mike McDaniel is going to be back to selling Pokemon cards
out of his parents' basement. So I love this dude. Like if Dorsey doesn't
work out, can he please come as our offensive coordinator? I love this. I could see that
being cool. Yeah, no, I watch them be good. This is why it's frustrating that I think
he's younger than us and is like at that level. That's some smarter and more likable and
more successful and weirder and weirder but in a cool way. Yeah. Yeah. That guy, he's
an awesome. Got that magnificent bastard. I hate him. He's so beautiful. Right. And
then and then forth I got the Jets. That's a bad offensive line. Again, what where's
the wide receiver depth on that squad? They've got Gary Wilson and no one else. Aaron Rogers
still thinks he's Aaron Rogers of 2009 where he can sit back in the pocket and chuck it
deep to Jordy Nelson or Randall Cobb or somebody and those guys just don't exist. And that
offensive line is not going to buy him that kind of time. And I question Hackett as a
coordinator and a coach. And I also just don't think Sala is the guy that's going to gel
and solidify a lot of these new faces in the coaching room and on the roster as well. I
think Sala is probably on the hot seat this year for a lot of reasons. I think this Jets
offense is going to be slow to get going. Got to watch them smoke the bills. Yeah. Oh,
God, I'm worried about that. But I think this I think this offense is going to be slow to
get going. And I think it's going to have some really tough starts and stops because
the identity of the offense is whatever whatever Aaron Rogers thinks he can do. And Aaron Rogers
still thinks he can chuck it deep downfield at 39 years old and hold on to the ball for
three and a half seconds and he just can't do it anymore. Well, in OTAs and training,
I mean, he was he sat out like multiple OTA and training camp practices for random like
maladies that happen to any 39 year old right like Tweet, Dankle, Twisted Knee, Ouch. Slep
funny on my arm. Yeah, my back's a little weird today. Like so those are things to worry
about that I think that if you're the dolphins or the Jets, you're probably a little bit
concerned at least about those things. And I agree that the offensive line is kind of
terrible and the wide receiver room is Garrett Wilson and then all of the, you know, Packers
retreads. And then and then to your point, Sean Payton called like what Nathaniel Hackett
like the worst coaching job he's ever seen. The job he did in Denver as the worst coach
coach he's ever seen in the National Football League. And this is the guy you're entrusting
your incredibly expensive, incredibly old, you know, quarterback to. So yeah, I'm wondering
about that too. I'm glad the bills have them early. You know, first game is a good time
to have a team that's got a new quarterback, new scheme, you know, so we'll see. But I
do think they have some talent and I'm not going to disagree with you and putting them
fourth place in the offense. I just, I mean, two times or three, how many times is Aaron
Rogers VP? Dude, three times. He won two back to back. Yeah. Yeah. And one another one earlier
in his career. I want to say. Yeah, I think you're right. He finds a way to win and he
had almost no receiving talent his entire career. So if that guy Garrett Wilson and maybe
maybe that's the key that unlocks another MVP for him, but we'll see. Yeah. So maybe I
don't want to write them off. That's why I had a much higher. But I mean, I think that
both of our realities could exist. We could split the dimensions and both get these things
right. We could it's the season of McCorkle. That's what it's going to be. That's I love
that you had them so high. All right. It's amazing. That's amazing. It's amazing. It
really is. So would you want to never do these drunk? Yeah, let's go ahead and do predictions.
All right, dude, it's midweek. Come on. Listen, it's two weeks. All right. So I'll I'll go
first and I'll hit I'll hit the the Kade one because I've been talking about it all pod.
Just do it. Dalton Kincaid breaks all Buffalo tight end rookie records. And before, you
know, the record stops like scratch. It's really not that hard people. It's incredibly
easy. Do you want to guess what any of these numbers are? I don't know. I just want you
to roll with it. All right. So the the okay, how about this? You're a Bill's fan of some
some tenure. Correct. Can you name who you believe the Buffalo Bill's all time rookie
tight end in terms of record, you know, receiving stats for the for their rookie year is. It's
not it's not Knox that would be too easy. Is it Reemersma? No, that's a great that's
a great guess because I think Reemersma is probably the best Buffalo Bells tight end.
Probably probably yeah. Reemersma. So no, it's not J. Reemersma. He's I think he's like
fourth or fifth. It's Ernie Warwick. Ernie Warwick in 1962. Look at that is the best
Buffalo Bill's tight end in terms of rookie stats, rookie year stats. So his first year
was 1962. I think he only played four years. But he received 600 yards and four, four touchdowns
to not even 35 receptions, 35. That's the most receptions by a rookie tight end ever in Bill's
history. 35 receptions for 482 yards and two touchdowns. Dude. That's it. Yes. Can K.
K. is going to cross that bar, I think, pretty easily. I mean, I think I don't think it's
complete. I know everyone's like, oh, rookie tight ends never have a huge blow up. Like
it's always a hard, slow developing. But not a tight. He's not a tight end now. Yeah.
But this and on top of that, he's a slot. He's a thick slot. And so and on top of that,
this bar is so low. Like I think it's not unreasonable to think that Dalton Kincaid
could have 3840 receptions for like 520 yards and three TDs. Oh my God, he's got it. He's
done them all. He's swept the record book. Like that's so sad. But I think it's possible.
And that's my that's my first prediction. Sure to go wrong. Dawson Knox is actually second
in tight end rookie seasons with 28388 and two TDs. The two TVs is crazy to me. Like
I feel like that's almost I should put money on that. But Dalton Kincaid will have greater
than or equal to three touchdowns this year. Nice. You actually should. I mean, that's
a that's a pretty good futures, but you could probably get some decent odds on for sure.
Sure. There. Can I can I just say through the course of this podcast, there are there
have been two phrases that you have used that I think we should consider consider putting
towards a rebrand of this pod. Oh, no. Sugar the egg app, which is an amazing pod name.
Yeah, it is. It is a really thick slot. Fixed. See, between renamed either of those, we're
going to get a clientele coming to the door that we do not want.
It is all about raw listenership when you're starting out, JJ. And I would also like just
be in heaven to hear you say welcome to fix. This week's pod. This week's pod. We sugar
your egg app. All right, Jesus Christ. It must be late. All right. So here here is.
Here's my prediction. At Oliver will lead the team in sex. No, just kidding. That was
my prediction last year. Yeah. And that went wrong. That went so wrong. I'm actually going
to play it relatively safe this year. I think and this is more of a hopeful projection.
Greg Russo 10 and a half sacks this season. Oh my God. And I wish you could see my screen.
My number one prediction is Greg Russo individual sax 10 or more. Yeah. Yeah. No, I would put
the over under a 10 and a half and I would be tempted to take the over not just because
people that know more about the game think that his game has progressed to this level
and that he should rise to that. But man, we really need him to if we can get 10 and
a half out of him Leonard Floyd who I think is accumulated 30 plus sacks over his past
three seasons and you get some semblance of an effective von Miller back. If you're talking
that three headed kind of Hydra ends up netting you 31 32 sacks. That's a great baseline to
start your season on. And then anything else that Oliver from the interior or Epinezla
can bring in rotational snaps or Kingsley can bring. It's just gravy if you can get those
three guys cooking. But to me, it's got to start with Russo Russo and Floyd really need
to hold it down till Miller gets back and Russo because of the the pressure of being
a number one draft pick and really needing to ascend at this point. I want to see him
do it. So I've got Greg Russo over 10 and a half sacks this season. I like it. All right,
for my next one, Gabe Davis leads the team in reception TDs. Interesting at the end
very doable. Very doable too, I think. Yeah. And I think that's kind of a that's a that's
a saucy one because I know it probably going to be Stefan Diggs. It was last year. But
Gabe Davis just has a knack for finding me on zone even if he's not anywhere near Stefan
Diggs yardage. I think he leads the team in reception. Yeah. And that prices him out of
free agent market the bills could afford. Exactly. Big play Gabe, right? I mean, he's
he's still a deep threat. Like if you you want Gabe and fantasy, you got to like plan
on the three game stretch where he's going to go 330 and no TDs only to get that Boomer
bust game where he goes 29.2 game, like three for 129 and two TDs, you know, exactly. I
could see that happening because to be the leader in team TD receptions, that would say
that his game has gotten at least more consistent. So the Buffalo Bills need that to happen
to take some pressure off of Diggs for sure. I think it's a bold one too because not that
I think in Kate is going to take not that I think in Kate is going to leave the team
and TD receptions. But I think between concade, Hardy and Hardy and Scherfield, there are
just more guys that are going to split snap share and split target share with Davis as
opposed to Diggs. Diggs would still be my leader in the clubhouse. But if Davis is indeed
leading in that statistical category, it's a good season for the bills, I think for a
lot of different reasons. Yeah. What's your next? All right. James Cook over under 11
and a half total TDs and I'm taking the over over. So and again, I think they're going
to need it not just for balance, not just for better efficacy in the red zone to let
that cook break a 15 yard run every now and then they're going to need cooking the past
game as well. And I'm so frustrated listening to national media being like, well, if Allen
would just be willing to take the check down, Allen has been willing to take the check down.
The problem is he's checking it down to Zach Moss and Devin Singletary who turn and burn
like they're stuck in the mud, right? James Cook has a little bit of pedal to that metal.
And I think he will absolutely be not just a viable check down option, but a viable yacht
option for this team. So I think between rushing and the reason why this one is saucy is because
you've got Latavius Murray and Damian Harris who are going to eat up red zone touches without
a doubt, right? They're going to be a red zone monsters. So for Cook to get to over an
11 and a half, he's got to be a factor in the short yardage passing game. And he's also
got to be the home run hitter that we think his talent tells us that he can be so embedding
big that Cook is really going to take a massive step in the past and breakaway run game in
year two.
Well, and I think that, you know, when you said turn and burn, all I could think of is
a description I heard a sportscaster say of a defensive lineman, he said he turns and
turns because that's really what I think of when I think of Devin Singletary and Zach
Moss. Neither of them was about to like explode out of like that catch point and burn everybody
for 60 yards. So they just turn and insurance. Awesome. Love it. Love it. All right. What's
your third and final third and final is that the bills chiefs game in I guess it's in November.
It's late in the season. It's like a third or fourth or fifth from the end. I think the
bills chiefs game at the end of the season decides the number one seed in the AFC.
Hmm. Interesting. So you don't think Cincinnati, LA, Baltimore are going to be a factor in
that conversation?
No, I think that at that point in time and certainly there might be a shuffling at the
top happening near the end. But I think that if you were to look back the schedule and
like how it all plays out that game is the decider because I think they're going to be
so close in their records that, you know, that, you know, that's the tiebreaker.
Yeah. I've got a harder time with that only because of the difficulty level of the bills.
So yeah, I'll schedule this year. Like I've got listen, I've got the bills capping out
at 11 wins this year. Still still challenged still winning the division, right? Oh, yeah,
we forgot to do our one through four division rankings. I've got I've got bills, Patriots,
Dolphins jets in that order. Don't know when lost records. I'm just saying finish in that
order. All four could make the playoffs. We could be looking at a three and three split
for all of these teams in the division because of just how muddled it is. But I've got the
bills. I got the bills ceiling at 11 wins this season because of the age of the defense,
the injury history on the team and the strength relative strength of schedule. Yeah.
For for my end of the season, if he is to I got the bills, the jets, the dolphins, then
the Patriots, I'm always going to be a kick and dirt on the Patriots. Always kick and
dirt on the Patriots without a doubt. Yeah, it would be a hell of a year if I finish second.
I'm telling you, man, this is exact. This is what Belichick wants. Belichick wants us
to count him out. He wants us to count him out. Toast, right? And then all of a sudden
he pulls a rabbit out of his hat, makes Mac Jones a serviceable QB again. My final overall
prediction for this season is going back to the offensive side of the ball. And I've
got this is similar to your Gabe Davis thing. Stefan Diggs and Gabe Davis partnering to
have a thousand yard seasons this year. Oh, both of them have them. Both of them having
a thousand yard season. Yeah. So Diggs feels like money in the bank. And I've talked about
I talked about Snapshare and Target Share and all this other kind of stuff. The way
Davis I feel like is going to be nestled into this particular offensive scheme, he's going
to get a lot of chunk yardage plays. And again, when you look at formation, so that the bills
are running out there, Davis played a fair amount of slot and cam and you see him eating up
targets in the middle of the field. I think the bills are going to use them in some pretty
unique ways. I think they understand the limitations of just running him out on the boundary time,
after time, after time, they're going to figure out ways to get him freed up this year. And
I think it was a really, really good season. Well, and that's part of why I think that
he's going to lead the team in receiving TDs is because I do think that Dalton Cankade
is going to break all the rookie tight end records. And I think that Diggs is always
going to be dependable as an outlet for Josh Allen as he has been. And that I think creates
a situation where Gabe Davis has way more of a capacity to eat than he has seen in any
of his seasons in the league in that it's just digs, Cankade, Dawson Knox, James Cook
underneath. Like there's more things to worry about for defenses. And so I think that they
can't give as much attention to Davis and he might be the person that's forgotten for
a good portion of the season. Yeah, I agree. No one's talking about them in this off season
like they were after that four TD game in Kansas City. So the hype train is left and
hopefully now not being in the spotlight, Davis can do some of his best and most surprising
work. So so yeah, and the bills could use that for short. They absolutely could. All
right. This has been the thick slot podcast. Thank you for listening. This has been sugar
the egg gap with your girls slide Dan and slippery J. Jesus Christ. All right. Yeah,
we really need to cut this off. All right. For those of you for whatever reason are still
listening at home, like, share and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. Google, Apple
and Spotify and as always, go bills. Go bills.