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Hello everybody and welcome to this week's edition of Your Mortgage Process.

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I of course am your host Greg Wareham.

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Thanks for joining the show today.

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We're going to talk a little bit about 2008 and what happened during the crash.

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And I think the best way to illustrate that for you is to talk to you about how everything

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got built up to 2008, what happened, how the market got reestablished and then correlate

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it back to what's going on in the market today in 2023.

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So I'm going to give you a little bit of my background.

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So I originally got into the mortgage industry in 1998 and I worked for a company, Champion

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Mortgage, which is no longer in business.

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Now when I was hired by Champion, what Champion did is they wrote what were considered nonconforming

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subprime mortgages.

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And it was really their niche in the marketplace.

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And they were able to provide financing for people that didn't qualify for what would

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be considered a conventional mortgage.

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And it was a product that was important to the market at the time.

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And as Champion was in it, household finance was in that business, and then slowly the

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banking industry got into that business as well.

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And what did the product line look like?

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So we did home equity lines that typically had a higher interest rate than a bank would

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have because the people didn't have a stronger credit.

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And then the other thing that we wrote a lot of back then were what were called 228s.

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Those are two year adjustable rate mortgages.

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So you'd be fixed for the first two years.

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And after that point in time, your interest rate would go up or could go up.

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And it almost always went up.

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And the market, I mean, that was such a big product at the time in the marketplace, not

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for where I was working, but in the industry as a whole.

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And it created some challenges when those mortgages started to adjust, right?

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So if you had a mortgage at an interest rate of 6% and it was a $300,000 mortgage back

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then, by year three, that interest rate could potentially be at 8% or 9% or even higher.

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And it created a slightly significant hardship for people if they didn't refinance out of

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the loan.

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Now, the common term used at the time was a band aid loan, right?

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So you had someone who had credit where they couldn't qualify for a conventional mortgage.

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How do I put them in a situation where we can consolidate all their debt, pay off their

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existing mortgage, and save them money monthly and rehabilitate their credit for the purpose

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of refinancing them out into more of a conventional mortgage?

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And that was kind of the thought process behind the scenes.

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You know, unfortunately, a lot of these people that hopped into that program, they never

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rehabilitated their credit.

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So they weren't able to go into that conventional mortgage.

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And then that adjustable rate really impacted them.

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Most of the time, these weren't loans for people that were looking to refinance.

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They were people that were looking to pay off 30, 40, $50,000 in credit card debt.

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So what would happen is when you consolidated everything for them, they would be saving

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on paper $1,000 a month, $1,500 a month.

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So it was a good loan for the consumer.

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Where the industry really fell short on it is two years wasn't long enough to rehabilitate

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the credit.

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And the borrowers that we were lending to weren't doing the right things to rehabilitate

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their credit over the course of time.

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So there's a lot of that going on.

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So when we do these transactions for people, the goal would be to refinance their existing

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mortgage, pay off 30, $40,000, $50,000 in credit card debt to save them more money on

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an overall basis.

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Because the reality is their credit scores were lower because they had too much revolving

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debt, they had too much credit card debt.

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So we consolidate everything for them and we put them in a position where we're saving

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them about, let's call it $1,500 a month.

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Sometimes you see a thousand, sometimes you see several thousand a month.

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All right, so now you're in this mortgage transaction.

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The role for the consumer then is to always pay on time.

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After that two year timeframe or right before the interest rate adjust, we're going to go

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into a conventional mortgage and kind of secure this thing for you long term because you've

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been properly rehabilitated.

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Well, unfortunately, part of the problem there is when you're doing mortgages for someone

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that say has a 550 credit score in that example, a lot of times there's a reason why they have

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that credit score to begin with.

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So what we saw at some times when we would pay off all this debt, they'd rack up the

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debt again.

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And when you rack up the debt again, your credit doesn't rehabilitate.

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Now your interest rate adjusts, your mortgage payment goes up and you're in far significantly

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worse shape than you were when you took the loan out originally.

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So that was certainly part of the challenge that was going on in the industry that eventually

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led to 2008.

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The other thing that was happening is even for conventional mortgages, for loans going

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to Fannie Mae as an example, there was a period of time where you didn't verify any income.

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So you would let her picture this for a second, right?

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So you're behind your desk and you're completing an application for someone.

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And someone tells you that they make $20,000 a month in income.

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You put that in, you hit the button to see whether or not they're approved for the loan.

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The system could literally come back to you and say, you're essentially cleared for closing

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with no income verification required.

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So it obviously seems absurd at this time.

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But back then, if somebody said they made $20,000 a month and the system recognized

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that, we wouldn't even ask for verification because it wasn't required.

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Again, not because they're trying to put them in a bad situation.

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It just wasn't required for the purposes of doing the loan and it became an industry standard.

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So now you think about that, now you have people that were purchasing homes where income

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was never verified.

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And when you run into that situation where you've done loans for folks that have less

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than perfect credit that are adjustable rate mortgages that are going to adjust, and you

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couple that with all these conventional loans that you did where you never verified any

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income, it creates a really, really bad situation.

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The other thing that I would say is there were programs that were out there where you

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could lend a very high percentage of the value of the property to someone looking to purchase

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a home as an investment property.

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Now picture this, right?

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So you're purchasing an investment property.

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You only have to put down 5%.

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And what was happening is everyone could come up with 5% for the investment property.

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In the market got so busy after like 2003, four, five, property values were going up

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and up and up, some people would get into the practice of putting the least amount of

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money possible they could put down for an investment property with really the hopes

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that they're going to flip that property in a three month, six month timeframe and make

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it easy 20, 30, 40, $50,000, which in an appreciating market where it's going up every month, all

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right, there's some validity to that.

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But what happens is when the market starts to come down, you can't sell the house, you

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have no equity, and even worse, you have no skin in the game, right?

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I mean, if you didn't put any real money into the transaction, if everything goes south,

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well, you're going to walk away from that.

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And that's another thing that we saw happening in the industry.

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So I never felt as though what was going on in the industry was, no one felt that it was

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going to result in what happened in 2008.

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We thought we were following the rules, we were following the guidelines that were required

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at that time and trying to give people the product that they wanted and trying to give

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the market what it was demanding at that time.

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So that's kind of what was going on behind the scenes in the industry.

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Now I'm going to fast forward to 2008.

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And actually, before I get there, I want to just go back to those adjustable rate mortgages

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again.

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So behind the scenes in the mortgage industry, you would take these big groups of loans,

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so not a couple loans, you're talking hundreds of millions of dollars of loans, you would

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get them rated by a rating agency, and then you'd be able to sell them to a third party,

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to Wall Street, you could securitarize them.

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You'd sell them somewhere else.

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And the rating companies were evaluating some of these packages that were sold at times

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as essentially AAA rated packages.

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And I'm not blaming anybody or not blaming the rating agencies, but if you have people

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that have a combined average credit score of a 650, is that really truly a AAA rated

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security that you're trying to sell?

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And it turned out really not to be, right?

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Where it should have been maybe rated BBB or whatever the rating should have been.

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So the investors in the marketplace that is buying all of these, they're looking at the

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rating on these portfolios and they're thinking it's a pretty low risk.

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And that compounded the problem from a financial market standpoint when things started to fall

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apart.

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All right, so now we're into 2008.

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2008, what happened?

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Construction is still was just winding down.

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We had all these new homes that were built.

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As the market started to deteriorate, all the buyers went away.

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So what we found ourselves in was a situation where we had all of this inventory and all

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of this construction because there was such a huge amount of demand.

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When that started to falter and the buyers went away, we were left with a ridiculous

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amount of inventory.

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And anyone that has some sort of basic, you ever been in a basic economics class, supply

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and demand.

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So if you have this huge supply of properties and your demand was matching it and at times

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exceeding it and now there's no demand, what happens to the price or the price drops?

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And the analogy that I like to use with that, if you ever walk into Costco and you see tuna

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fish is on sale, I love tuna fish, I eat it every day.

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And you go, oh, hey, this is $5 a box off.

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Well, they're not doing it to do you any favors as a consumer.

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The reality is they have too much supply.

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They ordered too much tuna fish.

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All right, we got to get rid of this tuna fish.

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So what are we going to do?

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We're going to drop the price to move it out the door.

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And that basic logic really transfers over to real estate.

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You have too much supply with no demand, prices start to plummet.

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And we saw in some markets that properties went down 20, 30, 40%.

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There's parts of the country where they went down 50%.

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And one thing I want to clarify with the builders.

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So behind the scenes, you have a bank lending to the builder to build these projects.

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And when the builder now is stuck with this inventory, the value is obviously dropping.

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Well, who holds the note on these properties?

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The bank still.

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So the banks were getting hit from a couple of different directions.

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Your money you had out there in the street with the builders, you're financing these

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projects.

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And now you have people as we entered into a recession, they can't pay their mortgage.

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And they're also having default rates as a result of that.

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I just want to walk through with you a personal story with how bad, how quickly the market

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changed.

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So I purchased a house at the top of the market.

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I bought a house in March of 2008.

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When I had to sell that house because I was relocating, years later, four years later,

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I sold that house, I had to sell that property for 30% under what I paid for it.

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Actually about 35% under what I had to pay for it.

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And that shows you as that market started to deteriorate in 2009, 2010, values kept

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going down.

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The only way to get out of a property was to sell it for less than you paid.

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Now in retrospect, would it have made more sense to have rented the property out?

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You know, hindsight's 2020.

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I'm older, I'm more seasoned.

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I probably would have retained the property, but I had to sell that property at the time

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and take a pretty big loss on it.

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Now the positive side of that is I bought another house.

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And when I purchased that house, I probably got that house for 35% less than what it would

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have cost had I purchased it in 2008.

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So in a lot of ways, the money kind of washed out on everything.

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You know, we had something when I was at the time, I was still selling subprime mortgages

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were part of what I was selling.

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And there was a site that was out there was called the implodometer.

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And it was built for mortgages.

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And what it did is every day it would update the list of mortgage companies that went out

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of business.

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And it would literally be hundreds would go out of business day after day.

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And I worked for a really big bank at that at that time, one of the biggest banks in

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the country.

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And we were still hanging on where all these other companies were going out of business.

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And one day, it happened.

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One day they eliminated my division virtually overnight.

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And a business channel that I was very successful at went away.

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And I find my found myself in a position where I really had to reinvent myself in trying

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to attack other markets and do new things to have the same level of success.

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Now to kind of quantify that for you, in 2008, I took a 70% pay cut.

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Now I was just having this conversation today with someone on the team, because as this

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market is starting to change and income starts to drop a little bit, like you're prepared

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in the sales world to take a 25% hit, maybe a 30% hit.

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But I don't think there's anybody out there that's prepared to take a 70% hit to your

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income.

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And that's what happened.

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And I use myself as an example, but it happened to everybody.

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And if you didn't plan accordingly, which thank God we had planned accordingly, maybe

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it's just by dumb luck, I don't know, but we were able to withstand all of that.

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But what you saw then is everybody leaving the mortgage industry and a lot of people

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leaving the real estate industry.

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The joyride was over.

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The bubble, the proverbial bubble had burst and the mortgage industry just started to

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hemorrhage people.

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Everybody was leaving it, and most of which never came back into the industry.

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And some of these people were in the industry that I knew had been in it for 15 years.

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And they just didn't recover from it and kind of moved on, got more of a traditional type

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of job.

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So I want to talk a little bit about between 2008 and 2009, what was going on.

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As I mentioned, everyone took a severe pay cut.

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The inventory was, I mean, it's such a surplus.

231
00:15:01,320 --> 00:15:05,980
You would drive, I can remember driving by builder sites and they were literally builder

232
00:15:05,980 --> 00:15:08,160
sites that had been abandoned.

233
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Now these were big sites where people were building a bunch of single family homes.

234
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They were there.

235
00:15:13,880 --> 00:15:15,640
They were still the backhoes on the property.

236
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Sometimes there was already curbs and different things put into the community.

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Gone, ghost town.

238
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They just shut down and a lot of them went bankrupt at the time.

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00:15:26,440 --> 00:15:29,240
And that lasted for quite some time.

240
00:15:29,240 --> 00:15:34,640
And I really look at it from the middle of 2008 until the end of 2009.

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00:15:34,640 --> 00:15:40,800
I mean, it was between the recession that we had going on in this country, led by the

242
00:15:40,800 --> 00:15:43,080
real estate, the mortgage market.

243
00:15:43,080 --> 00:15:47,460
They were really tough times for us in this industry and any of you that were working

244
00:15:47,460 --> 00:15:49,100
at that time.

245
00:15:49,100 --> 00:15:54,640
Now the other thing that we saw going on behind the scenes were then the bailouts for the

246
00:15:54,640 --> 00:15:55,640
banks.

247
00:15:55,640 --> 00:16:02,320
The banks were so heavily entrenched in mortgage type products, different products and different

248
00:16:02,320 --> 00:16:06,480
hedges they had going on behind the scenes within the mortgage industry.

249
00:16:06,480 --> 00:16:10,680
And I'll title it a real estate as well, that as you know, the government started bailing

250
00:16:10,680 --> 00:16:12,320
out banks.

251
00:16:12,320 --> 00:16:17,560
And what a lot of people do not know is once the government started to bail out any of

252
00:16:17,560 --> 00:16:21,480
the big banks, they made all the banks get a bailout.

253
00:16:21,480 --> 00:16:25,800
So even if you were a bank that didn't feel as though you needed it, everybody got the

254
00:16:25,800 --> 00:16:27,320
money.

255
00:16:27,320 --> 00:16:32,560
And I think that was really to not create a panic in the marketplace as to, oh my gosh,

256
00:16:32,560 --> 00:16:35,960
this bank I've been banking with forever just took all this money from the government and

257
00:16:35,960 --> 00:16:37,280
this bank over there didn't.

258
00:16:37,280 --> 00:16:40,760
And what's going on with our financial system to the credit of the government, they just

259
00:16:40,760 --> 00:16:45,440
made it uniform across the board, all of which have money's long since been paid back.

260
00:16:45,440 --> 00:16:47,360
But they were scary times.

261
00:16:47,360 --> 00:16:49,400
We saw our stock market crashing.

262
00:16:49,400 --> 00:16:52,680
We saw a lot of challenges in the economy as a whole.

263
00:16:52,680 --> 00:16:57,720
Where I was going in 2009, at the end of 2009, the decision was made by the Federal Reserve

264
00:16:57,720 --> 00:17:03,160
to start to cut rates, interest rates dropped significantly.

265
00:17:03,160 --> 00:17:05,640
And they dropped, I even remember where I was.

266
00:17:05,640 --> 00:17:07,640
Like the market was so bad.

267
00:17:07,640 --> 00:17:14,400
I was in Atlantic City at a meeting and I got the phone call that interest rates had

268
00:17:14,400 --> 00:17:15,400
dropped significantly.

269
00:17:15,400 --> 00:17:20,400
I was like, oh my gosh, I got to get back up and get back to work, get back to my desk.

270
00:17:20,400 --> 00:17:25,080
And it really, it breathes some life back into the mortgage industry and it breathed

271
00:17:25,080 --> 00:17:31,420
life back into the economy because what it did is it helped the consumer as well refinance

272
00:17:31,420 --> 00:17:34,560
their mortgage into a lower rate.

273
00:17:34,560 --> 00:17:39,300
And with some government programs, they have programs like HARP that allowed you to refinance

274
00:17:39,300 --> 00:17:43,880
that mortgage even if you were in an upside equity position on the property.

275
00:17:43,880 --> 00:17:48,760
And the goal really is how do we get people's payments down to put them in a situation to

276
00:17:48,760 --> 00:17:51,000
survive the storm?

277
00:17:51,000 --> 00:17:55,560
And things started to change then to get everything under control.

278
00:17:55,560 --> 00:18:01,000
Now another thing I would say about at least my industry and the real estate industry is

279
00:18:01,000 --> 00:18:07,000
as everybody left the business, man, it took a long time for this business to recuperate.

280
00:18:07,000 --> 00:18:10,080
So there was always a farming system in our industry.

281
00:18:10,080 --> 00:18:14,240
There's new people coming in at all times that you're coaching, you're developing, and

282
00:18:14,240 --> 00:18:17,840
that you're trying to show them how to or lead them down the path of success in the

283
00:18:17,840 --> 00:18:19,240
business.

284
00:18:19,240 --> 00:18:23,760
After 2008, 2009, nobody came into the business.

285
00:18:23,760 --> 00:18:29,520
And they literally did not come in the business again in like 2013 and 2014.

286
00:18:29,520 --> 00:18:34,040
And it was the darkest time in the industry from that standpoint.

287
00:18:34,040 --> 00:18:39,240
I would say from an overall business standpoint, as the interest rates stayed low, it certainly

288
00:18:39,240 --> 00:18:44,000
helped the American consumer to refinance their mortgage and get their payments down.

289
00:18:44,000 --> 00:18:50,200
And it also did a lot to support the mortgage industry to keep that churning in conjunction

290
00:18:50,200 --> 00:18:55,680
with the real estate industry because low rates just increases the demand again for

291
00:18:55,680 --> 00:18:56,680
properties.

292
00:18:56,680 --> 00:19:00,360
You know, one other thing that I would mention is because people were starting to default

293
00:19:00,360 --> 00:19:05,200
on their mortgages, foreclosures were starting to hit the marketplace.

294
00:19:05,200 --> 00:19:09,640
Now there's always been a certain level of foreclosures that you anticipate from a lending

295
00:19:09,640 --> 00:19:10,640
standpoint, right?

296
00:19:10,640 --> 00:19:14,480
You know, not everyone in the country is going to always be able to pay their mortgage.

297
00:19:14,480 --> 00:19:15,960
There is some default rate.

298
00:19:15,960 --> 00:19:20,060
But you build that into algorithms as to what you're prepared for.

299
00:19:20,060 --> 00:19:25,580
And what we saw in that 2008, 9, 10 marketplace, the banks weren't prepared for it.

300
00:19:25,580 --> 00:19:30,840
They had never seen this type of onslaught of people not paying their mortgage.

301
00:19:30,840 --> 00:19:33,440
And a new term really came into the industry.

302
00:19:33,440 --> 00:19:36,000
It was an old term, but it was something that resurfaced.

303
00:19:36,000 --> 00:19:38,720
And it was the concept of short sale.

304
00:19:38,720 --> 00:19:45,720
How do I sell my house for less money than it's worth and have the bank forgive the difference?

305
00:19:45,720 --> 00:19:49,160
And there were no real processes in place for this, right?

306
00:19:49,160 --> 00:19:54,980
So the banks never they had a like this convoluted, let me pull it out of the filing cabinet process,

307
00:19:54,980 --> 00:19:58,020
but they weren't prepared for the thousands and thousands of phone calls that were going

308
00:19:58,020 --> 00:20:01,400
to come in for people that were in this situation.

309
00:20:01,400 --> 00:20:07,960
And you saw people short selling their properties to try to get out from under.

310
00:20:07,960 --> 00:20:11,880
Now one thing that was also going on in the industry is if you were short selling your

311
00:20:11,880 --> 00:20:17,520
property for more than a certain dollar amount than what it was worth, that loss, like that

312
00:20:17,520 --> 00:20:23,080
$50,000 loss that the bank was taken, that was looked as income in a lot of situations

313
00:20:23,080 --> 00:20:24,080
for people as well.

314
00:20:24,080 --> 00:20:26,880
So it was kind of claimable income at the end of the tax year.

315
00:20:26,880 --> 00:20:27,880
Now I'm not a tax expert.

316
00:20:27,880 --> 00:20:31,140
It was just my understanding of what was going on.

317
00:20:31,140 --> 00:20:35,440
But you can see why everything got so dire at that time.

318
00:20:35,440 --> 00:20:40,600
The other shift that I saw in the industry then is back in the late 90s and even early

319
00:20:40,600 --> 00:20:49,880
2000s, about 80% of this business was really driven by the lender and then 20% was direct

320
00:20:49,880 --> 00:20:50,880
to the bank.

321
00:20:50,880 --> 00:20:52,360
And let me kind of clarify that.

322
00:20:52,360 --> 00:20:56,820
So if you're a lender, you might be selling these mortgages over to the bank, but the

323
00:20:56,820 --> 00:21:01,120
retail person that's taking that transaction, they don't work directly for the bank.

324
00:21:01,120 --> 00:21:08,320
They work for a third party company, big lender, small lender, broker, a lot of different things.

325
00:21:08,320 --> 00:21:11,760
After the market changed, it completely inverted.

326
00:21:11,760 --> 00:21:15,360
And it really became the time of the big bank because so many of these companies went out

327
00:21:15,360 --> 00:21:16,560
of business.

328
00:21:16,560 --> 00:21:22,280
And then it became 80% plus of the market became direct to the bank with much smaller

329
00:21:22,280 --> 00:21:25,400
amounts of that business coming from the lenders.

330
00:21:25,400 --> 00:21:26,600
Well, why?

331
00:21:26,600 --> 00:21:29,180
The banks wouldn't buy it anymore.

332
00:21:29,180 --> 00:21:33,640
So if you're a bank and now you're trying to preserve what you have going on and you

333
00:21:33,640 --> 00:21:41,760
have a line of credit, let's say with a third party company lender for $100 million, well,

334
00:21:41,760 --> 00:21:42,760
maybe you're not in...

335
00:21:42,760 --> 00:21:45,040
They call that correspondent lending.

336
00:21:45,040 --> 00:21:48,740
Maybe you have to look at that and say, maybe we shouldn't correspond lend anymore because

337
00:21:48,740 --> 00:21:50,460
we can't control the quality.

338
00:21:50,460 --> 00:21:52,040
We have to maintain our customer base.

339
00:21:52,040 --> 00:21:53,320
We've got to focus internally.

340
00:21:53,320 --> 00:21:55,580
And you saw a lot of that going on.

341
00:21:55,580 --> 00:21:58,300
So this business got really, really tight.

342
00:21:58,300 --> 00:22:03,680
So the guidelines to be approved for a mortgage changed significantly overnight.

343
00:22:03,680 --> 00:22:07,320
They went from giving money out to everybody, tighten up.

344
00:22:07,320 --> 00:22:12,560
Man, you have got to fit into that box and it's got to be very specific for someone to

345
00:22:12,560 --> 00:22:14,440
qualify for a mortgage.

346
00:22:14,440 --> 00:22:19,240
So there was certainly, again, there was certainly the dark times of the industry.

347
00:22:19,240 --> 00:22:25,040
And in retrospect on it, there were a lot of things that we could have done as an industry,

348
00:22:25,040 --> 00:22:32,360
as organizationally educating the consumer and all of that.

349
00:22:32,360 --> 00:22:36,480
But sometimes you just don't know until you go through something like that.

350
00:22:36,480 --> 00:22:37,920
And I'll give you an example.

351
00:22:37,920 --> 00:22:42,600
When you look at credit, there was no such thing as one of these credit monitoring companies

352
00:22:42,600 --> 00:22:44,040
back then.

353
00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:45,200
Nobody knew.

354
00:22:45,200 --> 00:22:49,360
So you knew maybe you weren't paying your bills on time, but you really didn't get any

355
00:22:49,360 --> 00:22:53,340
real time evaluation as to what was going on in your credit world.

356
00:22:53,340 --> 00:22:59,160
That came after the recession and after that crash where people looked at it and said,

357
00:22:59,160 --> 00:23:03,160
you know what, there's really an opportunity here for people to become more educated in

358
00:23:03,160 --> 00:23:08,880
the field of credit and how can they have access to real time credit updates so they

359
00:23:08,880 --> 00:23:10,920
can stay on top of those things.

360
00:23:10,920 --> 00:23:14,960
But prior to that, I mean, there was nothing that existed like that.

361
00:23:14,960 --> 00:23:20,440
Prior to that, the concept of a foreclosure or a short sale was like super taboo, right?

362
00:23:20,440 --> 00:23:21,440
Foreclosed on, oh my gosh.

363
00:23:21,440 --> 00:23:26,040
And when we're going through that time, it became almost commonplace.

364
00:23:26,040 --> 00:23:32,600
And it was, again, these were times that you learn from and they're times that you grow

365
00:23:32,600 --> 00:23:34,240
from.

366
00:23:34,240 --> 00:23:38,500
So I'm going to fast forward a little bit and start to tie this in into today's market,

367
00:23:38,500 --> 00:23:42,680
but I'm going to look at the timeframe from 2014 to 2019.

368
00:23:42,680 --> 00:23:43,680
So what was going on there?

369
00:23:43,680 --> 00:23:46,080
All right, people are coming back into the industry, right?

370
00:23:46,080 --> 00:23:49,800
So you got mortgage people saying, all right, maybe it's a good career path for me.

371
00:23:49,800 --> 00:23:53,000
You have more real estate agents coming back in the industry.

372
00:23:53,000 --> 00:23:56,680
And it started to become a slightly more balanced market again.

373
00:23:56,680 --> 00:24:02,040
And you started to see the stabilization and even the slight appreciation of homes again,

374
00:24:02,040 --> 00:24:06,600
where you saw such a significant dip prior to that.

375
00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:10,400
And it was really it was a healthy time in the marketplace for everyone to be able to

376
00:24:10,400 --> 00:24:14,200
build and grow normalization of interest rates, right?

377
00:24:14,200 --> 00:24:16,360
So interest rates weren't at 3%.

378
00:24:16,360 --> 00:24:17,560
They weren't at 10%.

379
00:24:17,560 --> 00:24:22,920
They were in that healthy, you know, five, six percent range, which is going to that's

380
00:24:22,920 --> 00:24:24,080
more of a balanced market.

381
00:24:24,080 --> 00:24:27,280
And you're starting to equal out that supply and that demand.

382
00:24:27,280 --> 00:24:31,120
The other thing that happened in the industry is there was a bill passed in 2010 called

383
00:24:31,120 --> 00:24:33,280
the Dodd-Frank Act.

384
00:24:33,280 --> 00:24:36,200
And that started to regulate the mortgage industry.

385
00:24:36,200 --> 00:24:42,940
So prior to that act being released, there was in the mortgage industry, there were some

386
00:24:42,940 --> 00:24:48,880
lenders that would pay their employees based on how much they were charging the buyer or

387
00:24:48,880 --> 00:24:50,640
the borrower.

388
00:24:50,640 --> 00:24:53,120
And I'm not going to qualify it one way or the other.

389
00:24:53,120 --> 00:24:59,480
You know, they're salespeople and that spread on that loan could make you more money.

390
00:24:59,480 --> 00:25:01,640
You sell a higher rate, you're making more money on it.

391
00:25:01,640 --> 00:25:04,800
I never worked for an organization that allowed that.

392
00:25:04,800 --> 00:25:06,600
So I can't relate to it directly.

393
00:25:06,600 --> 00:25:09,560
I just know what was going on in the industry at the time.

394
00:25:09,560 --> 00:25:13,400
And when this act was passed, it basically said, you can't do that.

395
00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:18,680
So you can no longer pay a mortgage person based on the product that they're selling,

396
00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:24,560
based on interest rate, premium that they may be selling, the type of loan that they

397
00:25:24,560 --> 00:25:25,920
may be selling.

398
00:25:25,920 --> 00:25:29,920
And that's good for the consumer and that's good for the marketplace.

399
00:25:29,920 --> 00:25:32,700
So it's now a very even playing field.

400
00:25:32,700 --> 00:25:38,240
So there's no incentive in my industry if the interest rate is at six percent to sell

401
00:25:38,240 --> 00:25:42,600
you six and a half percent because there's no financial incentive for the loan officer,

402
00:25:42,600 --> 00:25:44,560
the salesperson that's involved with it.

403
00:25:44,560 --> 00:25:47,100
You go back 20 years ago, that was the case.

404
00:25:47,100 --> 00:25:50,460
So that should be reassuring to the to the consumer.

405
00:25:50,460 --> 00:25:55,040
So there was also a lot of different there was a an organization put in place called

406
00:25:55,040 --> 00:25:59,900
the Consumer Protection Finance Bureau that governs more than just the mortgage industry.

407
00:25:59,900 --> 00:26:04,480
But it's really just a consumer, a federal consumer watchdog to try and help and regulate

408
00:26:04,480 --> 00:26:05,480
everything.

409
00:26:05,480 --> 00:26:10,200
So all of these things are good for the industry and they still promote healthy competition

410
00:26:10,200 --> 00:26:11,760
between lenders.

411
00:26:11,760 --> 00:26:16,840
But it also provides significantly more clarity to the consumer, which is important because

412
00:26:16,840 --> 00:26:22,880
when you go back to the late 90s or the earlier 2000s, it's that clarity didn't necessarily

413
00:26:22,880 --> 00:26:23,880
exist.

414
00:26:23,880 --> 00:26:27,440
And even if you try to explain something to the consumer to the best of your ability,

415
00:26:27,440 --> 00:26:28,960
were they still really clear about it?

416
00:26:28,960 --> 00:26:29,960
Right.

417
00:26:29,960 --> 00:26:32,960
Did they really understand what would happen in an adjustable rate when that rate does

418
00:26:32,960 --> 00:26:34,660
adjust if they can't refinance?

419
00:26:34,660 --> 00:26:38,720
So all of these things are good for our industry.

420
00:26:38,720 --> 00:26:42,040
Now I'm going to fast forward to 2020.

421
00:26:42,040 --> 00:26:43,040
What happened in 2020?

422
00:26:43,040 --> 00:26:46,040
Well, you get covid.

423
00:26:46,040 --> 00:26:48,640
If the business shut down.

424
00:26:48,640 --> 00:26:52,960
I mean, as all of our businesses did, so did the real estate market.

425
00:26:52,960 --> 00:26:58,260
And when they started to pull back in March of 2020, the industry shut down essentially

426
00:26:58,260 --> 00:27:01,040
for for a couple of months.

427
00:27:01,040 --> 00:27:07,160
And what sent everybody a lifeline on that, at least in the real estate and mortgage industry,

428
00:27:07,160 --> 00:27:09,400
was a significant reduction to interest rates.

429
00:27:09,400 --> 00:27:10,400
Right.

430
00:27:10,400 --> 00:27:14,460
We had cut interest rates so low and that wasn't a United States thing.

431
00:27:14,460 --> 00:27:16,300
That was a world thing.

432
00:27:16,300 --> 00:27:20,000
Everyone cut the interest rates and that created opportunity.

433
00:27:20,000 --> 00:27:27,160
Another opportunity for people that may be purchased between 2013 and 2020 and were in

434
00:27:27,160 --> 00:27:32,080
an interest rate of five, six, seven percent gave the afforded them the ability to refinance

435
00:27:32,080 --> 00:27:33,860
and save money monthly.

436
00:27:33,860 --> 00:27:37,680
The other thing that it did is it stimulated the housing economy.

437
00:27:37,680 --> 00:27:43,360
So when interest rates dropped to three percent in some stages, even under that.

438
00:27:43,360 --> 00:27:47,040
Well, that creates a lot of opportunity because it makes it much more appealing from a home

439
00:27:47,040 --> 00:27:49,320
buyer standpoint to purchase the house.

440
00:27:49,320 --> 00:27:50,320
Right.

441
00:27:50,320 --> 00:27:51,320
It keeps your payment really, really low.

442
00:27:51,320 --> 00:27:57,360
And as we all know, the I don't want to say the downside of that, but the result of that

443
00:27:57,360 --> 00:27:59,840
is what do you see happen to values?

444
00:27:59,840 --> 00:28:03,640
More people want to buy kind of going back to our supply and demand.

445
00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:08,400
There's a limited amount of houses that can be sold in that increases the pricing.

446
00:28:08,400 --> 00:28:09,400
Right.

447
00:28:09,400 --> 00:28:14,300
More people want it increases the pricing when there's not enough supply for it.

448
00:28:14,300 --> 00:28:15,960
And we saw that happen.

449
00:28:15,960 --> 00:28:21,560
Now, a lot of things that or something that I hear from people is look at how much the

450
00:28:21,560 --> 00:28:24,480
market value has went up.

451
00:28:24,480 --> 00:28:29,280
And that is true when you look at the three year window of what's happened with property

452
00:28:29,280 --> 00:28:30,280
values.

453
00:28:30,280 --> 00:28:31,920
You know, they've went up significantly.

454
00:28:31,920 --> 00:28:33,980
Double digit returns.

455
00:28:33,980 --> 00:28:38,800
But the bigger picture on that is how much did they go down by?

456
00:28:38,800 --> 00:28:39,800
Right.

457
00:28:39,800 --> 00:28:45,840
There were some markets that it took until 2020 for them to recover what they lost, even

458
00:28:45,840 --> 00:28:52,760
in 2021 for them to recover the value that they lost from 2008, nine and 10.

459
00:28:52,760 --> 00:28:58,240
So when you look at the overall 10 year time frame, the values haven't skyrocketed at the

460
00:28:58,240 --> 00:29:02,320
level that it feels over the course of the past couple few years.

461
00:29:02,320 --> 00:29:05,320
Another question I get a lot is I'm going to wait.

462
00:29:05,320 --> 00:29:06,320
Right.

463
00:29:06,320 --> 00:29:09,560
I'm going to wait until this market crashes and you know, then I'm going to capitalize

464
00:29:09,560 --> 00:29:12,640
on an opportunity from a real estate standpoint.

465
00:29:12,640 --> 00:29:16,720
The challenge is it's a completely different market.

466
00:29:16,720 --> 00:29:21,600
And when we look at 2008, that's 15 years ago.

467
00:29:21,600 --> 00:29:25,240
And as I had said before, what happened there is you got all this supply and you got no

468
00:29:25,240 --> 00:29:27,960
demand and that crashes the pricing.

469
00:29:27,960 --> 00:29:33,940
What we see now in this market, even with interest rates going up, there's no supply.

470
00:29:33,940 --> 00:29:38,140
So now you still have all these these people looking to buy.

471
00:29:38,140 --> 00:29:43,120
In a lot of ways, we have more people looking to buy today than we did two years ago because

472
00:29:43,120 --> 00:29:47,960
those people weren't able to purchase a house over the course of the past couple of years

473
00:29:47,960 --> 00:29:49,760
and you still have limited supply.

474
00:29:49,760 --> 00:29:50,880
So what happens?

475
00:29:50,880 --> 00:29:52,520
That keeps the prices stable.

476
00:29:52,520 --> 00:29:55,640
In some markets, you can even see prices continue to increase.

477
00:29:55,640 --> 00:29:59,920
So you see people that are waiting for an opportunity for prices to go down.

478
00:29:59,920 --> 00:30:03,040
And the simple reality of the matter is there's no supply.

479
00:30:03,040 --> 00:30:04,040
Right.

480
00:30:04,040 --> 00:30:09,320
And as supply stays here and demand continues to go up on everything, you're not going to

481
00:30:09,320 --> 00:30:11,320
see prices plummet.

482
00:30:11,320 --> 00:30:16,400
Unlike the 2008 where prices plummeted because there was too much supply and not enough demand.

483
00:30:16,400 --> 00:30:20,960
The other thing that's happened is we have a pent up demand of people looking to buy

484
00:30:20,960 --> 00:30:24,320
homes from the first time home buyer market.

485
00:30:24,320 --> 00:30:28,680
And the reason for that, the past three years, they couldn't touch a house.

486
00:30:28,680 --> 00:30:33,680
Those people who organically would have purchased a home in their early 30s weren't able to

487
00:30:33,680 --> 00:30:39,040
compete with people that are maybe selling their existing home and purchasing a new home.

488
00:30:39,040 --> 00:30:40,480
They were termed out of the market.

489
00:30:40,480 --> 00:30:41,480
Right.

490
00:30:41,480 --> 00:30:43,280
They didn't have huge money to put down.

491
00:30:43,280 --> 00:30:45,000
So they weren't able to get into a home.

492
00:30:45,000 --> 00:30:49,200
So now you got three years of pent up demand from first time home buyers that are carrying

493
00:30:49,200 --> 00:30:55,200
forward into 2023, which should maintain the stability in the pricing.

494
00:30:55,200 --> 00:30:58,900
The other thing I would mention is when you look at things nationally, depending on what

495
00:30:58,900 --> 00:31:03,520
you read or who you listen to, the housing shortage in this country is about four million

496
00:31:03,520 --> 00:31:06,400
units, four million units.

497
00:31:06,400 --> 00:31:10,340
It's going to take a decade to try to start to match that demand.

498
00:31:10,340 --> 00:31:14,880
So point being, I don't think we're going to see any type of a crash moving forward.

499
00:31:14,880 --> 00:31:19,400
So I just want to land the plane on this a little bit and talk about 2008 in this current

500
00:31:19,400 --> 00:31:20,400
market.

501
00:31:20,400 --> 00:31:22,200
2008 was an anomaly.

502
00:31:22,200 --> 00:31:31,040
It was an anomaly with a housing market, with a lending market, all of which was backed

503
00:31:31,040 --> 00:31:33,320
by the banking in the stock market.

504
00:31:33,320 --> 00:31:37,200
It just caused this massive collapse that we all saw.

505
00:31:37,200 --> 00:31:42,520
And there's been so many provisions put into place since then to make sure that that type

506
00:31:42,520 --> 00:31:45,780
of significant event doesn't happen moving forward.

507
00:31:45,780 --> 00:31:51,160
And then you couple that with the fact that we have this continued limited supply, which

508
00:31:51,160 --> 00:31:54,900
we all know about if we're trying to buy a house right now.

509
00:31:54,900 --> 00:32:00,280
You just don't see the property value shifting that much and certainly not going to see any

510
00:32:00,280 --> 00:32:02,800
type of crash in the immediate future.

511
00:32:02,800 --> 00:32:04,440
Interest rates are going to be what they're going to be.

512
00:32:04,440 --> 00:32:08,160
They've returned to something that's a little bit more normal historically.

513
00:32:08,160 --> 00:32:11,000
And we'll see some ebbs and flows associated with it.

514
00:32:11,000 --> 00:32:14,600
If you're sitting around waiting for interest rates to drop into the threes, you might be

515
00:32:14,600 --> 00:32:20,840
waiting a really long time, maybe decades, maybe forever, because that was the one time

516
00:32:20,840 --> 00:32:24,160
that I've ever seen something like that in the 25 years that I've been doing it.

517
00:32:24,160 --> 00:32:26,860
It's the only time I've ever even heard of something like that.

518
00:32:26,860 --> 00:32:30,400
So with that all being said, if you have any questions at all about it, you can feel free

519
00:32:30,400 --> 00:32:32,360
to reach out to me directly.

520
00:32:32,360 --> 00:32:35,280
Greg at your mortgage process dot com.

521
00:32:35,280 --> 00:32:37,520
I obviously I like talking about this stuff.

522
00:32:37,520 --> 00:32:40,800
So anything you need or anything I can do to help just reach out to me.

523
00:32:40,800 --> 00:32:42,920
And I appreciate everyone listening to the show again.

524
00:32:42,920 --> 00:32:44,880
Greg Wareham at your mortgage process.

525
00:32:44,880 --> 00:32:45,880
I'll catch up with you soon.

526
00:32:45,880 --> 00:32:46,880
Bye guys.

527
00:32:46,880 --> 00:32:54,120
Thank you for tuning in to this week's edition of your mortgage process hosted by Greg Wareham

528
00:32:54,120 --> 00:32:59,120
produced by Greg Wareham and Nick Pavese at the social rift and executively produced by

529
00:32:59,120 --> 00:33:00,680
the social rift.

530
00:33:00,680 --> 00:33:03,480
Thank you again for tuning in and we look forward to catching up with you next week.

